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000
FXUS61 KCAR 281704
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
104 PM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front will cross the region today with high pressure
building down from Canada tonight. A warm front will lift north
of the area on Sunday into Sunday night bringing showers to the
region.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
100 PM update...No significant changes were made to this
afternoon`s forecast. Cumulus is popping up in those areas that
have seen sunshine. The hi-res models still indicating showers to
develop in a couple of hours, mainly south and west of Bangor. The
model is also indicating we`ll see a sea breeze which will help
fire some convection. Have adjusted pops down just a bit in
coastal Hancock County since any shower or thunderstorm activity
will migrate back northward once the sea-breeze gets going. Made
slight adjustments to temps to match current trends, including
dropping highs a bit in the far north where stratocumulus deck has
limited most of the sunshine. No other changes needed.

Previous Discussion...
Main challenge this term will be convection potential across the
downeast  and coast this afternoon and fog.

A weak cold front will continue to slide s today and should be
across the coastal waters this evening. Convection that fired up
earlier has moved out of the downeast area and weakened. Areas of
fog are plaguing the region this morning w/the lowest vsbys across
the northern areas. Will keep an eye on the fog this morning as a
Dense Fog Advisory may be needed. Fog will lift and burn off later
this morning w/some sunshine returning. Clouds will hang on longer
across the northern tier thus keeping maxes down some. Across the
central and downeast areas, sunshine will allow temps to rise
quickly and readings are expected to shoot well into the 80s all
the way to the coast as the wind becomes offshore. Convective temp
will be easily hit. Dewpoints in this region will be in the mid
50s to around 60. Sounding data showed enough moisture available
from 850 to around 700 mbs to allow for TCU development. Decent
llvl convergence as shown by the NAM and HRRR along the boundary
and atmosphere destabilizes. SB/MU CAPES of 1000 joules are shown
in the downeast region. WBZ is about 9500 ft and pwats of 1.5+
inches. Definitely enough for tstms. Showalter index drops to -1
or so. It does not look like organized convection but some storms
could be strong enough to produce hail around 1/2 inch w/heavy
rainfall. Decided to keep 20-30% POPs in place. The NAM looks to
be overdone w/its dewpoints therefore overloading the llvls but it
has the right idea.

For tonight, convection should wind down this evening w/loss of
heating and lack of significant forcing. Areas of fog expected
once again especially across the downeast and coast as the winds
turn to the ene. High pres to the n will nose down into the region
allowing for some clearing especially across the northern areas.
This will allow for a cooldown. Min temps will be tricky as northern
areas will cool back into the upper 40s while central and downeast
see mid 50s. A warm front is forecast to lift northward overnight
with some showers breaking out ahead of the front by early Sunday
morning back across the western areas. Left out any mention of
tstms as the airmass looks to be stable especially in the llvls.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A warm front will move northeast across the region during Sunday
as an upper level ridge builds across the region. Expect some
showers with the passage of the warm front, mainly across
northern areas, especially the St. John Valley where went with
low end categorical pops (75-80%). Otherwise expect mainly cloudy
skies across the region. The combination of cloud cover and
southerly winds will hold temperatures in the mid to upper 60s,
but only around 60 along the immediate coast. Sunday night will
be mainly cloudy with the chance for showers, especially across
northern areas. Monday will see the chance for showers and
thunderstorms in advance of a short wave approaching from the
west. Have added the mention of heavy rainfall for Monday
corresponding to likely or higher pops, mainly across central and
downeast areas. Precipitable water values around 1.5 inches and
dew points in the lower 60s will support the potential for heavy
downpours. Have also added the mention of areas of fog for coastal
downeast with high dewpoint air and south winds off the gulf of
Maine. Showers and thunderstorms will begin to diminish by later
Monday afternoon with the passage of the short wave.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Monday night will see partly to mostly cloudy skies with only the
chance for a shower. Tuesday will see a secondary cold
front crossing the region. Expect the chance for showers and
afternoon thunderstorms, mainly across northern and central
areas. Will also have to watch for the possibility of a few
stronger storms with the passage of the short wave and secondary
cold front Tuesday. Wednesday and Thursday are shaping up as dry
days with temperatures a bit above seasonal levels for this time
of year. Another system will bring the next chance for rain by
Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR/LIFR mainly across the northern TAF sites this
morning w/fog and low clouds. KBGR and KBHB will flirt w/periods
of IFR this morning and fog. Conditions are forecast to improve to
VFR later this morning into the afternoon. The challenge will
along the coast near KBHB as conditions could hang on for IFR
longer. For tonight, expecting fog development later in the
evening which could bring conditions down to IFR/MVFR.

SHORT TERM: Expect vfr/mvfr conditions on Sunday in showers
across the northern terminals and mvfr cigs kbgr/kbhb. Expect
widespread mvfr in cigs and sct showers across the northern
terminals and widespread ifr/lifr in showers, areas of fog, and
low cigs kbgr/kbhb. Monday will see a continuation of widespread
mvfr conditions in showers and thunderstorms along with ifr in
areas of fog along the coast.

Mainly vfr on Tuesday along with sct showers and thunderstorms mainly
north. Vfr conditions expected Wednesday and Thursday as high
pressure builds in.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Expecting seas and winds to stay below SCA this term
w/winds around 10 kts and seas 2-3 ft. Fog will be nuisance for
the mariners with navigation this morning and again tonight.

SHORT TERM: Winds/seas will remain below sca levels through mid
week. Areas of fog will reduce visibilty to less than 1 nm at
times Sunday night through Monday in areas of fog.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

Near Term...Hastings/Hewitt
Short Term...Duda
Long Term...Duda
Aviation...Hastings/Hewitt/Duda
Marine...Hastings/Hewitt/Duda



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000
FXUS61 KGYX 272302
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
702 PM EDT FRI MAY 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Warmer air will continue moving into the region through the first
part of the weekend...with the hottest temperatures expected for
Saturday. A few scattered showers or thunderstorms may pop up in
the afternoon. A cold front will push in from the northeast
Saturday night...and likely stall near the Connecticut valley and
southwest New Hampshire on Sunday...with onshore flow and cooler
temperatures across Maine and part of New Hampshire. Another front
approaches from the west Monday and makes for a mainly cloudy and
humid day with scattered showers and thunderstorms. High pressure
will move in for the remainder of the week yielding dry and
seasonable weather.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
645 pm update: Visible satellite loops through the afternoon showed
widespread fog just offshore and along the immediate coastal areas
of the midcoast moving slowly west. With no mention of fog in
forecast...have made a significant update to forecast to include
this widespread fog over the waters and the coastal and inland
midcoast areas tonight as well as spreading the fog west into
southwest coastal Maine by late this evening. the question for the
remainder of the night will be how far inland the stratus and fog
move. temperatures were adjusted based on latest obs.

previous discussion:
Clouds have finally burned off over much of the coastal plain,
but visible satellite imagery shows clouds lingering just
offshore. The diurnal seabreeze circulation will push these
clouds onshore over the next few hours. Meanwhile a warm and
moist air mass to the west of the mountains continues to bubble
up with cumulus clouds and a few showers and thunderstorms over
New York, Vermont, and far western New Hampshire. This activity
may affect parts of southern and western New Hampshire at some
point this evening but it is not expected to be widespread.
Temperatures should drop into the 60s across most of New
Hampshire tonight, while 50s will be common across Maine where
the cooler maritime air will be felt.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Weak low pressure moving toward the Gulf of Saint Lawrence will
send a frontal boundary through New Hampshire and Maine on
Saturday. Ahead of the front, winds will be out of the
west/northwest. This will allow the building heat and humidity to
our west to spill into the rest of New Hampshire and much of
western Maine. There is a fair amount of difference between the
NAM/GFS on low level temperatures tomorrow with the NAM about 3C
warmer than the GFS. As a result, the MOS numbers are pretty far
apart with the MET going for a high of 97 at Concord while the
MAV says only 88. Tend to favor the NAM in this case as it seems
to have a better handle on this air mass so far. Record high at
Concord is 94 and this appears to be in jeopardy. Dewpoints in the
low to mid 60s will allow heat index values to rise to 95 degrees
or higher in parts of southern/urban New Hampshire. Further to the
east along the coast a sea breeze will keep things a little
cooler. With the synoptic winds expected tomorrow, the sea breeze
will be most likely east of Portland.

With the heat and humidity building, there is some indication that
afternoon instability will be enough to generate showers and
thunderstorms. NAM is more aggressive with this, indicating CAPE
values above 1200 while the GFS is generally less than half that.
There is no obvious forcing mechanism for thunderstorms Saturday,
but the terrain and frontal boundary/sea breeze may be enough to
force some storms to fire during the afternoon. This activity
should diminish during the evening.

The cold front finishes its push southward and then westward
across the area Saturday night. A cool/moist onshore flow will be
in place across the area and cannot rule out some low clouds and
drizzle particularly over southeast New Hampshire and southwest
Maine.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High impact weather: A few thunderstorms late Sunday night and
Monday could produce torrential downpours, and there is a low
risk for flash flooding.

The overall 500 mb pattern starts out summer-like, with strong
western Atlantic ridging in place. Although the ridge starts off
extending poleward to Newfoundland, several waves in the flow do
knock the ridge gradually back toward the equator. The temps will
moderate somewhat but will remain near to above normal thru next
week. A chance for showers come mid-late week as a cold front
moves thru, but there is no sign for any significant rainfall in
the extended forecast.

Sunday will start cool with onshore flow persisting behind the
back door front. Sunday looks to be mainly dry, but could be
fairly cloudy with the onshore flow, although some decent drying
above the marine layer could lead to some breaks of sunshine thru
the day. The best chance for showers or thunderstorms will be in
the north and western zones where the frontal boundary will be
sitting on sunday. In fact, CT valley region will likely be on the
warm and humid side, while elsewhere temps remain cooler, mainly
in the low-mid 60s coast to mid 70s in inland areas on the coastal
plain and the foothills.

Sunday night will see the marine layer start to erode a bit as
warmer pushes in aloft. Clouds will roll in and the threat of
showers will increase overnight...as will the humidity from SW to
NE. A cold front approaches from the west on Monday, and this will
set off showers and storms again in the warm moist air ahead of
the front. Even along the coast where marine layer will hold on,
should be enough elevated instability that we cannot rule out a
thunderstorm here on Monday. The big question is how much, if any,
moisture gets picked up from current fledgling tropical system in
the Atlantic. Models are in fair agreement that the system moves
west too the Carolina coast by Saturday night, but models vary
after that. Still could see some of that tropical air mass get
shunted northward ahead of the cold front and bring some heavy
rain in convective cells late Sunday into Monday, but confidence
remains low at this time.

Air mass behind the so-called cold front that passes Monday night
will remain warm and humid and will need to wait for second surge
of cooler air late Tue and Tue night. So Tue will be on the warm
and somewhat humid side, although with a fair amount of sun. This
secondary cold front moves thru with little fanfare...and may
produce a few scattered showers in the mountains on Tuesday. After
that temps drop back to near to a little above normal thru the
end of the week before another cold front approaches on Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Short Term...Conditions start out VFR this afternoon for most
areas, though some low clouds are lurking just offshore. These
clouds will likely surge into coastal areas over the next few
hours, particularly from Portland eastward. This could bring
conditions to IFR or LIFR. Winds become southwesterly by morning
which should shift the focus for IFR clouds to eastern parts of
the area. This should burn off by mid morning with all areas
becoming VFR Saturday. Afternoon showers and storms are possible
especially over southern New Hampshire and southwest Maine though
the likelihood of affecting any particular TAF site is too low to
mention at this point.

Long Term...Sunday will start with some IFR, but will see some
improvement to MVFR or VFR during the day. A return to IFR
expected Sunday night lingering into Monday, with scattered
thunderstorms on Monday. VFR returns for Tue/Wed.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...Southwesterly winds become northerly then
northeasterly behind a cold front Saturday evening. High pressure
slides east into the Atlantic on Sunday with winds becoming
southeasterly. Winds through the period should stay below 25 KT
with wave heights fairly low as well.

Long Term...Winds seas will remain blow SCA conditions Sunday
through Wednesday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Warm and humid conditions are expected Saturday. A cold front
brings cooler weather Sunday with a moist onshore flow over Maine
and eastern New Hampshire. Although showers and storms will be
possible Saturday and again early next week, no widespread
significant rainfall is forecast.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KCAR 272216
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
616 PM EDT FRI MAY 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front will lift north of the area this evening. A weak cold
front will cross the region on Saturday. This front will lift north
of the area as a warm front Sunday into Sunday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
616 pm update...Convection moving out of southern Quebec has been
weakening as it moves into western Maine. A couple of
thunderstorms have impacted parts of northern Somerset County over
the past couple of hours. The convection has fallen apart as it
moves east into northern Piscataquis County. Expect the last of
any thunderstorm activity to end within the next hour or two, with
only isolated showers the remainder of the evening. Otherwise,
expect a lot of low stratus tonight with areas of fog. Only minor
tweaks based on the latest radar returns, lightning data, and
observations.

previous discussion...
SFc low pressure sitting in cntrl Quebec with assoc cdfnt draped
sw back into srn Ontario wl mv east ovrngt. Skies hv clrd up into
nrn zones this aftn but stratus rmns locked ovr most of the region
as of 19z. Significant low-lvl moisture wl lkly rmn locked under
subsidence inversion tonight and where skies do clr, fog wl
develop.

Frontal bndry wl slide thru and bisect CWA by 12Z in the morning.
Hv isold-lochc pops acrs far nw this evng but fropa wl mostly be
dry as it drops south. May see isold thunder along the coast drg
the aftn as front conts to slide south.

As far as temps go, expect min temps to drop into the l/m-50s
areawide tonight. Maxes on Sat wl only climb into the lwr 70s acrs
the north bhnd front while Downeast locations wl rise into the
80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A weak area of high pressure will be across the north Sunday
evening. Clouds will increase as moisture, cascading over the top of
the ridge, begins to approach ahead of a warm front. This will be
followed by a mostly cloudy day on Sunday. Low pressure lifting west
of the area Sunday will continue to draw moisture north along the
warm front bringing rain across the north with just a chance for
some showers Downeast. Showers will likely continue overnight Sunday
night, especially over central and northern areas. By Monday, the
warm front will be north of the area and warm and very humid air
will be across the region as low pressure tracks well to the
north. Lots of moisture in the region will keep skies mostly
cloudy and a few showers may still be around. An isolated
thunderstorm is possible, mainly during the afternoon. Sounding
profiles show some weak shear but also weak capes around 100 j/kg
with limited heating. The humid air moving in over the cooler
waters will likely result in some fog along the coast on Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Showery weather will continue through Tuesday as a couple of
shortwaves will slide across the region. Ridging builds in
thereafter, leading to a dry spell Wednesday and Thursday. Low
pressure will cross to our north on Friday while dragging its
attendant cold front across northern New England. There`s some
disagreement between the long-range models as to the strength and
timing of this front, but at the least expect we`ll see some
showers as it goes through. Temperatures will be warmest earlier
in the period; Tuesday`s highs will top out in the 80s across the
Central Highlands down through interior Downeast, while elsewhere
should see mid to upper 70s. Highs will mainly be in the 70s
thereafter, though the coast will remain cooler Thursday and
Friday owing to onshore flow.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: Restrictions will remain MVFR and possibly IFR
overnight. Saturated low levels may result in low stratus and fog
at all terminals tonight before improving to VFR by mid-morning.

SHORT TERM: VFR to MVFR conditions are expected Saturday night.
MVFR to IFR conditions are expected on Sunday then IFR to LIFR
conditions in low clouds and some fog are likely Sunday night in
Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Seas and winds will remain below SCA through tomorrow.
Areas of fog will develop over the waters tonight.

SHORT TERM: Winds and seas are expected to be below SCA saturday
night through Sunday night. Winds may reach SCA in gusts over the
offshore waters on Monday. Very humid air over the waters may
result in areas of dense fog on Monday. IFR conditions will give
way to VFR through the day Tuesday. VFR will prevail Tuesday night
and Wednesday.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

Near Term...CB/Farrar
Short Term...Bloomer
Long Term...Hastings
Aviation...CB/Farrar/Bloomer
Marine...CB/Farrar/Bloomer




000
FXUS61 KGYX 271108 AAB
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Gray ME
708 AM EDT FRI MAY 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Warmer air will continue moving into the region through the first
part of the weekend...with the hottest temperatures expected for
Saturday. Upper level high pressure will be in control...so any
showers or thunderstorms are expected to be scattered at best.
Moist tropical air will move in Sunday night brining rain showers.
A cold front pulls through Monday night clearing out the rain.
Tuesday will be warm with a chance for afternoon thunderstorms.
High pressure will move in for the remainder of the week yielding
dry and mild weather.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Update...Coastal fog and stratus is beginning to form...mainly in
an arcing band parallel to the coastline. Have adjusted Wx and Sky
grids to account for this into mid morning.

Previous discussion...Warm front is moving into the area this
morning. Showers and a couple rumbles of thunder have formed on
the leading wing of WAA...captured well by the GFS convergence at
900 mb. GFS transitions focus from ENEwd moving band of showers to
more general scattered showers in the background WAA across Nrn
zones thru the rest of the morning. Do not think thunder will be
widespread...but will keep isolated mention as there have been a
few CG and IC flashes detected.

Heights aloft rise thru the day...which should continue to keep
any shower activity scattered in nature. Onshore flow will limit
warming for much of coastal ME...but much of NH will get quite
warm again this afternoon. S/WV trof moves thru Quebec this
afternoon...shearing out as it does so. The decaying front
attendant to it will approach Nrn zones during peak heating.
Convection allowing models show the potential for some storms
mainly in the mtns during this time. Have removed enhanced wording
from the thunder forecast for the afternoon time period based on
latest trends in guidance. Strongest forcing remains well N of the
area...and lapse rates are rather poor with weak mid level flow
across our forecast area. A gusty storm or small hail isn`t out of
the question...but organized convection doesn`t appear likely.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
Dominated by upper ridging tonight looks quiet. Winds look to veer
a bit thru the column...which despite a moisture increasing may
help to limit coastal stratus development. For now will leave any
fog mention out of the forecast.

Sat then looks like the hottest day of the bunch. H9 temps
climbing above 20C and Wly low level flow should mean low 90s
across much of Srn NH. Could see some heat index values creep
at or above 95. Given the hot and increasingly humid air mass...at
least modest instability should be in place by afternoon.
However...we lack a coherent trigger for convection. Modeled
QPF is seemingly following terrain features...which makes sense
given the lack of other background forcing. For now will keep PoP
at chance or slight chance.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High impact weather: Heavy rain showers Sunday night into Monday
bring a chance for flash flood threat.

Overview: Summer makes its long awaited return for Memorial Day
weekend. A broad upper level ridge builds from Bermuda into the
northeastern United States through much of the next week. Tropical
moisture will move in for the start of the week before a brief
shortwave will yield falling heights on Tuesday only to quickly
return to the strong ridge on Wednesday.


Sat night warm air advection continues with ongoing convection from
Saturday afternoon.  Warm air continues to build in for Sunday as
the high crests overhead. On shore flow will keep temperatures at
the shore cooler.

Sunday night showers will develop ahead of a front pushing through
on Monday. Southerly flow around a Bermuda high will push an
exceptionally moist airmass into northern New England. The moisture
transport will be further enhanced from a weak tropical
system moving into South Carolina. Forecast soundings show tropical
airmass characteristics with about 4km of above freezing and
saturated air by 00Z Sunday. Furthermore, current deterministic
guidance suggest PWAT as high as 2 inches is possible...which would
put this at the 99th percentile. That moisture will depend largely on
how the tropical system is able to develop over the next several
days. Even with more modest PWATS /around 1.5 inches/ the storm
motion vectors are less than 10kts across much of our area which
would bring concerns of flash flooding with any cell training. Have
added isolated thunder and heavy rainfall wording for Sunday night
and Monday.

Monday evening the front pushes through leaving the heavy moisture to
our east. While the widespread rain will come to an end
thunderstorms remain a possibility for Tuesday afternoon as steep
lapse rates combine with upper level support from the right
entrance of the jet.

Wednesday the upper level ridge returns and remains in place through
the end of the week. Highs will be seasonable in the 70s with
overnight temperatures in the 50s. Dry and seasonable conditions
continue for Thursday with the next rain moving in on Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Short Term...Coastal fog/stratus is beginning to develop at this
hour. Instead of a widespread fog bank...it appears to be related
to coastal convergence and thus an arcing band has set up along
the coast. Will include in the TAFs to persist into the mid
morning before lifting with daytime heating.

Widely scattered SHRA or an isolated TSRA will be possible thru
morning in background WAA pattern. A decaying front will approach
Nrn zones later this afternoon...and HIE may see an increased
chance for TSRA during that time. Again confidence is low in that
scenario...with SPC SREF only showing around 40 percent prob for
TSRA this afternoon. As moisture increases tonight...coastal
stratus may again be a problem...though models are forecasting a
more offshore wind component.

Long Term...Sunday night into Monday will see periods of IFR in
rain showers. IFR is most likely along the coast through Sunday
night, where fog may develop, but inland areas may also see the
rain yield IFR. Conditions will return to VFR by late Monday
night. Thunderstorms are possible on Tuesday afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...Winds and seas expected to remain below SCA
thresholds thru the first half of the weekend.

Long Term... Quiet period on the waters as the high pressure keeps
winds and seas calm.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Very warm and increasingly humid conditions are expected for much
of the area through the holiday weekend. Precipitation will be
scattered for the first half of the weekend...with showers and
storms becoming more widespread Sun into Mon.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Legro
SHORT TERM...Legro
LONG TERM...Curtis
AVIATION...Curtis/Legro
MARINE...Curtis/Legro
FIRE WEATHER...Legro




000
FXUS61 KCAR 270824
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
424 AM EDT FRI MAY 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front will move across the state today. A cold front
crosses the area on Saturday with showers and thunderstorms
expected across southern areas during the afternoon. Unsettled
weather continues into Memorial Day.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Clouds will increase today as high pressure moves to the east of
the region and a warm front moves across the state. Expect
showers to develop across the north and will also add the mention
of scattered thunder in the western portions of the region. Low
pressure is expected to develop to the north of the state tonight
then move away to the northeast Saturday Morning. Will use the
Consensus Blend for temperature based on latest verification.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Unsettled pattern continues with increasing humidity by the end of
the weekend.

A cold front is forecast to slide across CWA on Saturday. There is
very little upper level support with the front, but some llvl
convergence resides right along the front as it slides se. The
atmosphere does look like it will be unstable especially across
the interior Downeast and Coastal plain. The NAM is explosive w/SB
CAPES of 2000+ joules and PWATS of >/= 1 inch. The GFS is less
amplified but does bring SB CAPES to around 400 joules. The
lacking factors are the availability of deep moisture through
700mbs and the low/mid level lapse rates are meager w/around
6.0c/km. The GFS/NAM and even the ECMWF along w/the Canadian
guidance indicate some light QPF in the vicinity of the Downeast
region. Therefore, kept the mention of thunderstorms but pulled
back the POPs to 20% given the lacking factors mentioned earlier.
Temps will be in the 70s across the northern 1/2 of the CWA while
downeast and the coast will see AOA 80F given the wnw wind.

The model guidance diverges come Saturday night into Sunday as the
ECMWF and NAM continue their trends of bringing a decaying MCS
over the upper ridge into the region w/some showers and possible
tstms. The GFS and Canadian model keep things dry into midday
Sunday w/high pres at the surface and aloft hanging on. Since
confidence remains rather low, decided to blend the guidance and
go w/30-40% POPs for showers and possibly a tstm later Saturday
night into Sunday. It will be cooler on Sunday due to clouds and
showers w/temps in the 60s and 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Increasingly humid into MOnday as tropical moisture gets pulled
northward from the deep s. Low pres moving across central Canada
will bring a warm frontal boundary toward the region Sunday night
through Monday. This system is forecast to link up w/the tropical
moisture from the se being ejected northward. PWATS are forecast
to climb to 1.5" at least as the upper flow becomes sw.
Coordinated w/GYX in mentioned heavy rainfall later Sunday night
into Monday along w/some embedded tstms. It will become
increasingly humid. As the warm front lifts ne into Canada, rain
will taper to scattered showers Monday night. The associated cold
front is forecast to slide across the region on Tuesday with more
showers and possible tstms. Temps will remain above normal through
this time period.

Drier weather Wednesday into Thursday as high pres moves across
the region. Temps during this timeframe are forecast to be near
normal for early June.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: Expect MVFR/IFR conditions today and tonight.

SHORT TERM: Periods of MVFR and perhaps IFR early Saturday morning
and then a return to VFR into Saturday evening. Conditions look as
though they could drop back to at least MVFR by early Sunday
especially for KBGR and KBHB. The northern terminals look as
though they could stay VFR. MVFR/IFR conditions are expected to
return later Sunday night into Monday w/the potential for periods
of heavy rain.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: For sustained winds will use the GFS20. For waves:
Primary wave system is expected to be southerly swell 1-2 feet/8
seconds. This will be accompanied by a secondary wind wave group
out of the east today then becoming more southerly tonight.

SHORT TERM: No SCA headlines expected through the Memorial Day
weekend. Sustained winds 10 to 15 kts at best w/seas averaging 3-4
ft and this will mainly be across the outer zones. A swell could
set up Monday into Tuesday bringing higher seas to the outer
zones w/heights building to near 5 ft.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

Near Term...Mignone
Short Term...Hewitt
Long Term...Hewitt
Aviation...Mignone/Hewitt
Marine...Mignone/Hewitt




000
FXUS61 KCAR 270215
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
1015 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front will lift across the state on Friday. A cold front
crosses the area on Saturday with showers and thunderstorms
expected across southern areas during the afternoon. Unsettled
weather continues into Memorial Day.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
10:00pm update...High and mid-level clouds continue to stream over
the region at this hour with some weak radar returns beginning to
show up over the Saint Lawrence valley. Forecast looks good to
hold off on any precip until after midnight, with newest 00z
guidance still showing the bulk of the precip coming in tomorrow
morning and being focused across Northern Maine as the jet streak
combines with isentropic lift forcing greatest in this region.

7:00 pm udate...Forecast is in good shape overall with just some
minor tweaks to the cloud cover grids. High clouds are quicky
invading the area from the west as the return flow warm front
begins to push into the region. Low level stratus hung strong all
day across Central and Southern Aroostook.

Stratus is contg to hang on ovr ern Aroostook this aftn. Sfc hipres
is building into Canadian Maritimes and as it conts to slide east
this evng, low-lvl winds shud veer arnd to the east allowing
moisture to head back into CWA. Moisture wl also be heading up fm
the southwest ahd of wmfnt with entire CWA clouding up bfr daybreak.
As it does, upglide wl increase on 305K lyr btwn 09z and 12z. Latest
RAP is showing vry marginal instability acrs areas tonight so wl not
include isold thunder attm. Convection is currently firing in the
Adirondacks but expect this wl weaken ovrngt as diurnal htg wanes.

Expect the bulk of the rain to occur acrs the north drg the mrng hrs
as s/wv crosses the area. QPF amnts wl likely range btwn 0.10 and
0.25 inches acrs the far north drg the mrng hrs. Showers wl
gradually wind down drg the aftn but enuf moisture wl linger to
warrant 30 pops into the evng.

Max temps for tomorrow wl be cooler than tda especially in srn
zones. Locations along the coast wl see onshore flow and temps wl
lkly struggle to reach 60F with nrn sites similar to tda`s temps.
Cntrl sxns wl be cooler and wl hv a hard time pushing 70F.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
We`re looking at an unsettled start to the long Memorial Day
weekend as a frontal boundary waffles around the forecast area. A
warm front will lift across the region Friday evening, allowing
any lingering showers or thunderstorms to come to an end by
midnight or so. A warm front will quickly return back south as a
cold front late Friday night/early Saturday morning. This front
will become nearly stationary across Downeast/coastal Maine by
Saturday afternoon. A very warm and humid airmass will exist along
and south of the front, so expect we`ll see showers and
thunderstorms develop during the afternoon. Much of the 12z
guidance places this front a bit further south than previous runs,
though the Canadian and SREF both keep it further north. Did tone
back on the pops a bit but didn`t want to go too hog-wild at this
point given the continued model differences. At this time the best
chances for precipitation still looks to be south of a Millinocket
to Greenville line. We`ll have plenty of shear (0-6 km 30-40 kt),
but the best instability will be mainly to the south and west of
our forecast area. Have left the mention of thunder in the
forecast for now, but trends will need to be watched by subsequent
shifts. Saturday`s highs will range from the lower/mid 70s in the
north to the lower 80s south.

For Saturday night into Sunday...The front lifts back north
overnight, perhaps as far as the County. The 12z NAM, 09z SREF, and
the 12z ECMWF all show a wave and its associated precip sliding down
along this front sometime Sunday. Meanwhile, the 12z GFS keeps the
area completely dry until late Sunday evening. Have increased pops
across much of the forecast area to match the bulk of the guidance
since the GFS seems to be an outlier. The differences in the frontal
and precip placement make Sunday`s temp forecast a  bit tricky, so
have gone with a blend, giving highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s
areawide.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
We remain on the periphery of the upper ridge into Tuesday.
Shortwaves rotating around the high will keep the threat of
precipitation around through then, along with mild conditions.
Surface ridging finally clears the precip out on Wednesday and
Thursday. Temperatures will be a little cooler for the middle of
the week, but still a bit warmer than normal for this time of
year.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR restrictions for a time late this afternoon before
lifting to VFR at FVE, CAR, PQI and HUL. VFR briefly through 04Z
before stratus and MVFR restrictions return to northern terminals.
Further south at BGR and BHB expect MVFR after 08z with all
terminals at IFR restrictions in -shra through end of TAF valid
time.


SHORT TERM: IFR conditions are possible along
the coast Friday night due to fog, stratus and possible rain
showers. Otherwise, VFR will prevail through Saturday evening, with
occasional MVFR possible in showers and thunderstorms at KBGR and
KBHB Saturday afternoon. More widespread activity will move in
Sunday, along with prevailing MVFR. Occasional IFR can`t be ruled
out in any heavier showers.  This will continue through Monday and
Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Seas and winds will remain below SCA through Saturday.
Will see areas of fog across the waters Friday morning.

SHORT TERM: The main concern through the Memorial Day weekend will be
rounds of showers and possible thunderstorms. The best chance for
any thunder will be Saturday afternoon into the early evening across
the inner waters. Winds and waves will remain below Small Craft
Advisory levels, so no headlines are anticipated at this time.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

Near Term...Farrar/Dumont
Short Term...Hastings
Long Term...Hastings
Aviation...Farrar/Dumont/Hastings
Marine...Farrar/Dumont/Hastings




000
FXUS61 KCAR 262307 AAA
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Caribou ME
707 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front will lift across the state on Friday. A cold front
crosses the area on Saturday with showers and thunderstorms
expected across southern areas during the afternoon. Unsettled
weather continues into Memorial Day.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
7:00 pm udate...Forecast is in good shape overall with just some
minor tweaks to the cloud cover grids. High clouds are quicky
invading the area from the west as the return flow warm front
begins to push into the region. Low level stratus hung strong all
day across Central and Southern Aroostook.

Stratus is contg to hang on ovr ern Aroostook this aftn. Sfc hipres
is building into Canadian Maritimes and as it conts to slide east
this evng, low-lvl winds shud veer arnd to the east allowing
moisture to head back into CWA. Moisture wl also be heading up fm
the southwest ahd of wmfnt with entire CWA clouding up bfr daybreak.
As it does, upglide wl increase on 305K lyr btwn 09z and 12z. Latest
RAP is showing vry marginal instability acrs areas tonight so wl not
include isold thunder attm. Convection is currently firing in the
Adirondacks but expect this wl weaken ovrngt as diurnal htg wanes.

Expect the bulk of the rain to occur acrs the north drg the mrng hrs
as s/wv crosses the area. QPF amnts wl likely range btwn 0.10 and
0.25 inches acrs the far north drg the mrng hrs. Showers wl
gradually wind down drg the aftn but enuf moisture wl linger to
warrant 30 pops into the evng.

Max temps for tomorrow wl be cooler than tda especially in srn
zones. Locations along the coast wl see onshore flow and temps wl
lkly struggle to reach 60F with nrn sites similar to tda`s temps.
Cntrl sxns wl be cooler and wl hv a hard time pushing 70F.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
We`re looking at an unsettled start to the long Memorial Day
weekend as a frontal boundary waffles around the forecast area. A
warm front will lift across the region Friday evening, allowing
any lingering showers or thunderstorms to come to an end by
midnight or so. A warm front will quickly return back south as a
cold front late Friday night/early Saturday morning. This front
will become nearly stationary across Downeast/coastal Maine by
Saturday afternoon. A very warm and humid airmass will exist along
and south of the front, so expect we`ll see showers and
thunderstorms develop during the afternoon. Much of the 12z
guidance places this front a bit further south than previous runs,
though the Canadian and SREF both keep it further north. Did tone
back on the pops a bit but didn`t want to go too hog-wild at this
point given the continued model differences. At this time the best
chances for precipitation still looks to be south of a Millinocket
to Greenville line. We`ll have plenty of shear (0-6 km 30-40 kt),
but the best instability will be mainly to the south and west of
our forecast area. Have left the mention of thunder in the
forecast for now, but trends will need to be watched by subsequent
shifts. Saturday`s highs will range from the lower/mid 70s in the
north to the lower 80s south.

For Saturday night into Sunday...The front lifts back north
overnight, perhaps as far as the County. The 12z NAM, 09z SREF, and
the 12z ECMWF all show a wave and its associated precip sliding down
along this front sometime Sunday. Meanwhile, the 12z GFS keeps the
area completely dry until late Sunday evening. Have increased pops
across much of the forecast area to match the bulk of the guidance
since the GFS seems to be an outlier. The differences in the frontal
and precip placement make Sunday`s temp forecast a  bit tricky, so
have gone with a blend, giving highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s
areawide.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
We remain on the periphery of the upper ridge into Tuesday.
Shortwaves rotating around the high will keep the threat of
precipitation around through then, along with mild conditions.
Surface ridging finally clears the precip out on Wednesday and
Thursday. Temperatures will be a little cooler for the middle of
the week, but still a bit warmer than normal for this time of
year.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR restrictions for a time late this afternoon before
lifting to VFR at FVE, CAR, PQI and HUL. VFR briefly through 04Z
before stratus and MVFR restrictions return to northern terminals.
Further south at BGR and BHB expect MVFR after 08z with all
terminals at IFR restrictions in -shra through end of TAF valid
time.


SHORT TERM: IFR conditions are possible along
the coast Friday night due to fog, stratus and possible rain
showers. Otherwise, VFR will prevail through Saturday evening, with
occasional MVFR possible in showers and thunderstorms at KBGR and
KBHB Saturday afternoon. More widespread activity will move in
Sunday, along with prevailing MVFR. Occasional IFR can`t be ruled
out in any heavier showers.  This will continue through Monday and
Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Seas and winds will remain below SCA through Saturday.
Will see areas of fog across the waters Friday morning.

SHORT TERM: The main concern through the Memorial Day weekend will be
rounds of showers and possible thunderstorms. The best chance for
any thunder will be Saturday afternoon into the early evening across
the inner waters. Winds and waves will remain below Small Craft
Advisory levels, so no headlines are anticipated at this time.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

Near Term...Farrar/Dumont
Short Term...Hastings
Long Term...Hastings
Aviation...Farrar/Dumont/Hastings
Marine...Farrar/Dumont/Hastings




000
FXUS61 KGYX 262228
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
628 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure to our east will allow a southerly wind to bring
warm and humid conditions into New England. Some afternoon
thunderstorms will be possible on Friday afternoon as the heat and
humidity generate instability in the atmosphere. The hottest day
will be Saturday when much of the area will warm into the 80s and
90s. A cold front will drop southward across the region late
Saturday into Saturday night. An onshore easterly flow will keep
temperatures cooler on Sunday especially east of the mountains.
Warm air builds in again from the southwest on Monday and Tuesday
before another cold front crosses the area from the northwest
Tuesday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
625 pm update: a few convective cells have developed over
southern NH so added pops in the area of the cells. Minor tweaks
to temps based on latest mesonet data. No other changes at this
time.

Previous Discussion:
Mainly clear skies will be replaced by clouds that will continue
to spill east ahead of an approaching warm front. This front will
become hung up across far Western Interior Maine and
southern/central New Hampshire. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms will gradually move eastward through New Hampshire
tonight. Expect these storms to move east into more stable
conditions across Maine, where elevated convection is a
possibility over night.

Dew points will remain in the lower to mid 50s overnight, with
readings climbing to near 60 over southern New Hampshire. This
will be close to the forecast overnight mins.

Patchy fog may occur in the CT River Valley.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
With warm air advection and the front in the vicinity on Friday,
expect showers and thunderstorms to develop once again, mainly in
the afternoon hours. Sufficient CAPE with ~1000 J/KG forecast,
mainly over New Hampshire. There will be a significant west to
east gradient in max temperatures and therefore instability. At
this time, have limited enhanced wording for the possibility of
damaging winds and hail to New Hampshire. Have included this
possibility in the HWO as well. Greatest threat would be for high
wind gusts.

Dew point values will climb into the lower to mid 60s over
southern New Hampshire during the day. With air temperatures
forecast in the mid 80s, expect heat indices to further be on the
rise.

There is a possibility of patchy drizzle and fog along the coast
due to onshore winds developing once again. This may linger into
Friday night as convection gradually weakens with the loss of
solar radiation.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Weak low pressure moving through the Gulf of Saint Lawrence will
cause winds to shift to the northwest on Saturday. This will help
to keep the influence from the seabreeze minimized to the
immediate coastal areas in the afternoon. Meanwhile the heat
continues to build with high temperatures reaching the mid 80s to
low 90s. With dewpoints remaining in the 60s, it will also be
humid. Heat index values will likely approach 95 degrees in urban
New Hampshire. Cannot rule out an afternoon thunderstorm either
though this should be fairly isolated.

Saturday night another front drops southward across the area...
helping to push out the warm/humid air mass. By Sunday morning
high pressure will be centered over eastern Maine with an easterly
wind flow across much of the area. This onshore flow will keep
temperatures cooler on Sunday, especially east of the mountains.
Went just a few degrees below the blend of guidance values to
account for the wind off the cold waters.

Meanwhile, the heat and humidity continue to build further to the
west over New York state. By Monday this heat and humidity will
shift eastward as high pressure moves east and a shortwave trough
drives a cold front toward the area from the northwest. This will
bring a chance for some thunderstorms on Monday. If all the
ingredients come together just right then there could be a chance
of severe thunderstorms. Right now the biggest question is whether
the instability will be able to spread into our area or whether
the southerly low level flow will keep enough of a marine
influence in place to limit instability especially across Maine.

A cold front crosses the area Monday night into Tuesday. The air
mass behind the front is not that much cooler than the one ahead
of it so temperatures remain in the 70s to low 80s for highs. A
better shot of cooler air arrives Wednesday into Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Short Term...Areas of MVFR developing tonight in showers and
thunderstorms with local IFR near the coast in drizzle and fog.
Showers and thunderstorms will be possible again on Friday.

Long Term...Generally expect VFR conditions Saturday. Cannot rule
out an isolated thunderstorm Saturday afternoon. An onshore flow
develops by Sunday morning and it is possible that low clouds
could move in off the water bringing IFR conditions east of the
mountains. Showers and storms are possible again on Monday in
advance of the next cold front coming in from the northwest.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...Quiet on the waters with winds and seas remaining
below Small Craft thresholds.

Long Term...A cold front drops south into the Gulf of Maine and
pushes westward Saturday night. Winds become easterly which could
increase the wave heights in the western Gulf of Maine, but still
expect winds and waves below advisory levels. High pressure shifts
east with a southwest flow returning by Monday with gusts possibly
approaching advisory levels as the front approaches Monday night
into Tuesday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Moderate to high humidity levels return for tonight through the
start of the holiday weekend. We are forecasting all areas to
receive rainfall for the end of the week into the upcoming
weekend...although amounts should be relatively light.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$





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