000
FXUS61 KCAR 230839
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
439 AM EDT THU MAY 23 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL PROGRESS NORTH OF THE STATE EARLY THIS MORNING.
LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT TO OUR WEST TODAY THEN GRADUALLY PUSH A
SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. A WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT WITH RAIN
EXPECTED FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

ACTIVE WEATHER IN STORE...

A WEAKENING AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING IN FROM
QUEBEC WILL MOVE THROUGH MAINLY CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS WHILE CONTINUING TO WEAKEN.

DURING THE DAY TODAY AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
MIGRATE EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH A BROAD SOUTHWEST
FLOW CONTINUING ALOFT. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED
TO SLOWLY TRACK NORTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHERN QUEBEC AS IT PULLS A
COLD FRONT EAST. THE FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE EAST AS IT
PARALLELS THE FLOW ALOFT. ONCE THIS INITIAL WAVE OF SHOWERS MOVES
OUT BY MID MORNING THERE SHOULD BE A LULL BEFORE SEEING INCREASING CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REDEVELOPING FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT MOVES SLOWLY TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE
WEST. BIG QUESTION WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR ANY CONVECTION TO DEVELOP
IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. BOTH THE GFS AND THE NAM
DEPICT SB CAPES IN THE RANGE OF 500-1000 J/KG HOWEVER THE NAM
DEPICTS THIS ARE BEING LIMITED MAINLY RIGHT ALONG THE WESTERN
BORDER OF THE CWA.THERE IS ALSO DECENT SHEAR IN THE 0-6 KM LAYER ON THE
MAGNITUDE OF 30 TO 40 KTS. AGAIN THE BIG QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH
INSTABILITY WE SEE AND THIS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON ANY BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS THAT MIGHT OCCUR DURING THE DAY. STILL LOOKS LIKE THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SEEING ANY THUNDER WILL BE ACROSS WESTERN AREAS WHERE
LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHWEST IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT
LATER IN THE DAY. HAVE CONTINUED TO INDICATE THE HIGHEST POPS FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN SECTIONS
DURING THE DAY. THINKING IS THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY STORMS TO REACH
SEVERE LEVELS WOULD BE OVER EXTREME WESTERN AREAS ALONG THE QUEBEC
BORDER WHERE THE POTENTIAL FOR STORMS PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL CAN`T BE RULED OUT. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY ENHANCED
WORDING MENTIONING HEAVY RAIN AS THIS LOOKS TO BECOME THE BIGGEST
THREAT BY LATE IN THE DAY AS STORMS WILL TEND TO TRAIN ALONG THE
SLOW MOVING BOUNDARY. WORTH NOTING, 3 HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS
IN THE RANGE OF 1.6 TO 1.8 INCHES OVER MOST OF THE CWA AND THESE
AMOUNTS OVER A BRIEF PERIOD OF TIME WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TODAY IN
THE NORTH AND WEST.

FOR TONIGHT, EXPECT THE SLOW MOVING FRONT TO MOVE ONLY SLIGHTLY TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS, POTENTIALLY PRODUCING
HEAVY RAIN, WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN IN THE EVENING OVER
NORTHERN AREAS. INSTABILITY WILL DECREASE HEADING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT BUT EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAIN TO CONTINUE...NOW BEGINNING
TO ENCOMPASS SOUTHERN AREAS WHO WILL SEE LIMITED PRECIP THROUGH
THIS EVENING. BEEFED UP QPF AMOUNTS FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD
UTILIZING A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND HPC QPF GRIDS.
THINKING IS MOST AREAS WILL SEE AT LEAST ONE TO TWO THIRDS INCHES
OF RAINFALL DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PERIOD WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS LIKELY IN AREA EXPERIENCING TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS
THIS EVENING.
&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE VERY COOL AND RAINY
FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA...ALTHOUGH IT IS POSSIBLE NORTHWEST
MAINE MAY SEE A BIT OF A RESPITE FROM THE RAIN DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY. MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT SHOWING THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE BY FRIDAY
NIGHT...WHERE IT STALLS. DEEP MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO
THE REGION...WRAPPING AROUND THE UPPER LOW AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST
TOWARD THE AREA. PRECIP AMOUNTS THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME ARE
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM .5 TO .75 IN FAR NORTHWEST MAINE...TO
UPWARDS OF 1.5 INCHES ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA.

WITH THE SURFACE BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AND ABUNDANT
CLOUDS EXPECTED...A DISTINCT COOLING TREND IS EXPECTED FROM THIS
TIME FRAME. HIGHS ON FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY IN THE 50S
AND LOW 60S WITH EXPECTED HIGHS ON SATURDAY ONLY IN THE 40S AND
LOW 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FORECAST HAS NOT CHANGED FOR THE BETTER WITH THE LATEST MODEL
RUNS. ENERGY DROPPING INTO THE BASE OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH WILL
FORCE A LOW PRESSURE AREA TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION BY FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS LOW WILL THEN MOVE NORTHEAST FAIRLY
SLOWLY ALONG THE EAST COAST INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH
TUESDAY. AS A RESULT THE RAINY PERIOD WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT
LEAST MONDAY. BY TUESDAY...THE CENTER OF THE LOW SHOULD BE OVER
THE MARITIMES WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE CHILLY ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE 40S AND 50S. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS THEN EXPECTED AS THE
LOW GRADUALLY MOVES NORTHEAST. HIGHS BY WEDNESDAY WILL GENERALLY
BE IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT IFR/LIFR IN THE SOUTH TO LIFT TO IFR DURING THE
DAY BEFORE LIKELY GOING DOWN TO LIFR AGAIN TONIGHT AS RAIN AND FOG
DEVELOP. IFR/LIFR IN THE NORTH SHOULD BRIEFLY IMPROVE TO MVFR
DURING THE DAY AS BREAKS DEVELOP BEFORE IFR CONDITIONS RETURN BY
LATE DAY. ALSO WILL SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING..MAINLY FROM KHUL NORTH.


SHORT TERM: POOR FLYING CONDS ARE STILL EXPECTED THRU MUCH OF THE
PERIOD AS A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM CROSSES THE REGION THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AND STALLS JUST E/SE OF THE AREA AS SEVERAL
SIGNIFICANT LOWS LIFT NEWRD ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. EXPECT WDSPRD
IFR/MVFR THRU THE PERIOD WITH ONLY SOME GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT
POSSIBLE BY LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM:
EXPECT SCA CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP BY THIS AFTERNOON FOR BOTH WINDS
AND SEAS AND CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. ALSO WILL CONTINUE TO SEE
REDUCED VISIBILITIES AT TIMES DUE TO SHOWERS, RAIN, AND AREAS OF
FOG FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM:
A FRONTAL BNDRY WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY MV THROUGH THE WATERS
FRI AND THEN STALL W/ SEVERAL SFC LOW PRES SYSTEMS FCST TO LIFT NE
ALONG THIS STALLED FRONTAL BNDRY. PERSISTENT SRLY WNDS AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM WILL HELP ELEVATE SEAS W/ GENERIC SCA CONDS EXPECTED
INTO FRI. WNDS WILL ABATE AS THIS FRONTAL BNDRY STALLS OVR THE
WATERS BUT EXPECT A PROLONGED PD OF ELEVATED SEAS TO PERSIST INTO
THE WEEKEND. CURRENT SCA HEADLINES INTO FRI WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE
EXTENDED.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO NOON EDT FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...FITZSIMMONS
SHORT TERM...RUNYAN
LONG TERM...RUNYAN
AVIATION...FITZSIMMONS/RUNYAN
MARINE...FITZSIMMONS/RUNYAN

000
FXUS61 KGYX 230701
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
301 AM EDT THU MAY 23 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND CANADIAN BORDER. A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH FROM WEST TO EAST LATE TODAY INTO FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE
REDEVELOPS OFFSHORE FOR THE WEEKEND BEFORE SLOWLY MOVING TOWARDS
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
SHOWER ACTIVITY WHICH MOVED THROUGH EARLIER HAS EXITED THE
FORECAST AREA. A LINE OF CONVECTION IN VERMONT HAS BEEN WEAKENING
STEADILY AS IT MOVES INTO NH AND A MORE STABLE AIRMASS. AFTER
THIS ACTIVITY DISSIPATES THIS MORNING THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN
PRECIPITATION UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON WHEN A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH
ACROSS THE AREA. THE FRONT IS NOW LOCATED FROM VERMONT INTO
MASSACHUSETTS. AS THE FRONT SHIFTS NORTH WARMER AIR WILL
INFILTRATE SOUTHERN NH AND SOUTHWEST MAINE. HIGHS IN THIS AREA
WILL WARM INTO THE MID 70S WITH UPPER 60S TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF
THE BOUNDARY.

LLJ INCREASES TO 40-50 KTS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS ALONG WITH INCREASED FORCING FOR
ASCENT WILL INCREASE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA. NOT
EXPECTING ANY SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME...JUST ENHANCED RAINFALL
AND RUN OF THE MILL THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
A SHARP UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH THE NNE-SSW ORIENTED COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...TRIGGERING
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ISENTROPIC LIFT LOOKS GOOD
WITH THE 40-50 KT JET IN PLACE.

PW VALUES JUMP TO NEAR 1.8 INCHES. A FLOOD WATCH WAS DECIDED
AGAINST AS RAINFALL HAS NOT BEEN AS HIGH HERE AS IT HAS BEEN TO
OUR WEST. HOWEVER...THE HIGHER TERRAIN MAY APPROACH FLASH FLOOD
GUIDANCE IN A FEW BASINS BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. TONIGHT`S LOWS AND
FRIDAY`S HIGHS ONLY DIFFER BY A FEW DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MIGRATE
EASTWARD AND MOVES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...THE ATTENDANT
SURFACE LOW SOUTH OF CAPE COD WILL START TO SLOW DOWN. NORTHEAST
FLOW AND WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION IN PLACE
OVER THE CWA ON SATURDAY. THE SYSTEM BECOMES PRETTY MUCH STACKED
OVER THE BENCHMARK BY 00Z SUNDAY WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF A BREAK
FROM THE PRECIPITATION OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE LOW WILL
TRACK ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE BEFORE ENTERING THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES ON MONDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS OVER THE
REGION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

SEEMINGLY...THE MODELS HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE PROGRESSION OF THIS
SYSTEM WITH JUST ABOUT EVERY RUN SO CLEARING THE GULF OF MAINE ON
MONDAY MIGHT BE A BIT OPTIMISTIC. WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE NEXT
FEW RUNS TO SEE IF THE SYSTEM LOOKS LIKE IT WILL SLOW EVEN MORE
THAN IT ALREADY HAS.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WITH VISIBILITIES
AND CEILINGS IMPROVING BY LATE MORNING. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL
DEVELOP AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING KEEPING CONDITIONS
LOW. VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS WILL DROP FURTHER TONIGHT.

LONG TERM...
LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR MOST OF THE LONG TERM AS A
SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WAS EXTENDED THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING WITH WINDS AND WAVES STAYING ABOVE CRITERIA.

LONG TERM...AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND MOVES ACROSS THE GULF OF
MAINE...EXPECT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR MOST OF THE WEEKEND.
PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW WILL HELP KEEP SEAS ABOVE SCA CRITERIA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS REMAIN LOW WITH RECENT RAINS KEEPING FUELS
MOIST. RAIN IS EXPECTED AREAWIDE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

HANES/POHL

000
FXUS61 KCAR 230506
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
106 AM EDT THU MAY 23 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS NORTH ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT
AND THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT TO OUR WEST ON THURSDAY THEN
GRADUALLY PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT
WITH RAIN EXPECTED FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND.&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1 AM PM UPDATE: ADDED THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR LATE TONIGHT
OVER NORTHERN AREAS. ALSO ADJUSTED MINS DOWN A FEW DEGREES BASED
ON CURRENT TRENDS. FINALLY, LOWERED POPS A BIT FOR THURSDAY
MORNING AS MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE A RESPITE BEFORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP LATER IN THE DAY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: WHATS LEFT OF THE CONVECTION OVER NH AND MA
MAY MAKE IT INTO PORTIONS OF DOWNEAST MAINE LATER THIS EVENING IN
THE FORM OF SOME REMNANT SHOWERS AS THE ACTIVITY WEAKENS IN THE
MORE STABLE AIR ACROSS OUR AREA. HAVE INDICATED SOME HIGHER POPS
LATER THIS EVENING ACROSS DOWNEAST MAINE TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS
MAINLY AFTER 8 PM. OTHERWISE...IT WILL CONTINUE CLOUDY ACROSS THE
REGION OVERNIGHT AS DEEP LAYER MOISTURE CONTINUES WITH MOIST
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS
CONTINUING. EXPECT THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL NOT FALL THAT MUCH FROM CURRENT
LATE AFTERNOON READINGS WITH ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND MOISTURE IN
PLACE.

ON THURSDAY AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MIGRATE
EAST ACROSS THE GREAT REGION WITH A BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW
CONTINUING ALOFT. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
SLOWLY TRACK NORTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHERN QUEBEC AS IT PULLS A COLD
FRONT EAST. THE FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE EAST AS IT PARALLELS
THE FLOW ALOFT. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LATER THURSDAY MORNING AND THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
FRONT MOVES SLOWLY TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE WEST. BIG QUESTION
ON THURSDAY WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR ANY CONVECTION TO DEVELOP IN
ADVANCE OF THE FRONT THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE
MORE AGGRESSIVE IN DESTABILIZING THINGS DURING THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND CONTINUES TO SHOW SB CAPES IN THE 500-1000J/KG RANGE MAINLY
ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN SECTIONS. THERE IS SOME SHEAR IN THE
0-6 KM LAYER ON THE MAGNITUDE OF 30 TO 40 KTS. AGAIN THE BIG
QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH INSTABILITY WE SEE AND THIS WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS THAT MIGHT OCCUR ON
THURSDAY. STILL LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEEING ANY THUNDER
WILL BE ACROSS WESTERN AREAS WHERE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE
SOUTHWEST IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT LATER IN THE DAY. HAVE INDICATED
THE HIGHEST POPS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN AND
WESTERN SECTIONS DURING THURSDAY. CURRENT THINKING IS ANY STORMS
WOULD BE SUB SEVERE BUT ANY STORMS COULD HAVE SOME GUSTY WINDS.
ALSO...INCLUDED THE MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS
WITH PWATS RUNNING 1 TO 1.5 INCHES. DECIDED TO KEEP THE MENTION OF
THUNDERS OUT OF EASTERN MAINE SINCE THINKING IS THINGS SHOULD
REMAIN MORE STABLE HERE WITH MARINE LAYER IN PLACE. HAVE LEANED
CLOSER TO MOS MAV NOS FOR HIGH TEMPS ON THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A VRY COOL AND WET WX PTRN WILL DRIVE OUR WX THRU THE SHORT TERM
PD... THE ENTIRE 12Z MODEL SUITE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT W/
OVERALL TRENDS DURING THE PD THO SOME DIFFS EXIST IN THE SPECIFIC
DETAILS. A SLOW MVG FRONTAL BNDRY IS FCST TO ENTER WRN/NWRN AREAS
THU NGT AND SLOWLY PUSH SEWRD ACROSS THE FA LATER THU NGT THRU FRI
AS A SERIES OF WEAK SFC WAVES LIFT NE ALONG THIS BNDRY. THIS FRONT
IS FCST TO FINALLY STALL JUST E AND SE OF THE FA BY LATER FRI
NGT/ERLY SAT AS A STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRES LIFTS NEWRD UP ALONG
THIS BNDRY W/ MOST MODELS POSITIONING SFC LOW PRES OVR THE GOM BY
12Z SAT. THIS LOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO WRAP UP AND DRIFT SLOWLY NE
THRU SAT AND THE REMAINDER OF THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
UNFORTUNATELY...VRY WET/COOL AND DREARY CONDS WILL RESULT W/
LITTLE HOPE OF ANY MAJOR DEVIATIONS FROM THESE TRENDS ATTM.

WILL INTRODUCE LIKELY TO CAT POPS N AND W THU EVE AND SPREAD THESE
HIGH POPS SEWRD THRU THU NGT W/ LIKELY TO CAT POPS CONTG RGT THRU
SAT FOR ALL BUT OUR FAR NWRN AREAS. WILL ALSO KEEP MENTION OF
THUNDER THRU THE EVE HRS W/ THIS THREAT EXPECTED TO MOSTLY
DIMINISH BY MDNGT.

VRY CHILLY AIR WILL FOLLOW THE FRONTAL BNDRY BY FRI AND THIS
COMBINED W/ ABUNDANT CLDS AND PRECIP WILL RESULT IN FCST HIGHS
ONLY IN THE LOWER 50S N ON FRI AND ONLY IN THE UPPER 40S ACROSS
THE N ON SAT...

PRECIP AMOUNTS DURING THIS PD SHOULD RANGE FROM AROUND .75 FAR NW
TO BTWN 1.0 AND 1.5 INCHES ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL BRING RAIN
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CHILLY
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. ACTUALLY...TEMPERATURES COULD
END UP BEING LOWER WITHOUT SOME BRIEF BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AND
RAIN. THIS WILL BE A SLOW-MOVING CUT-OFF LOW. BY MONDAY
MORNING...THE LOW WILL BE OVER THE AREA AND SHOWERS WILL PERSIST
MONDAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL FINALLY BUILD MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PRODUCE DRY CONDITIONS
UNTIL LATE WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES RISING THROUGH THE PERIOD.
HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TOWARDS 70F BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS EARLY THIS EVENING WILL GIVE WAY
TO WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS OVERNIGHT. IFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
INTO THURSDAY BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD GIVE WAY TO MVFR ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TERMINALS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON IN SHOWERS AND SCT
THUNDERSTORMS. IFR CONDITIONS MAY CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AT KBGR/KBHB TERMINALS IN LOW CLOUDS.

SHORT TERM: POOR FLYING CONDS ARE EXPECTED THRU MUCH OF THE PD AS
A SLOW MVG FRONTAL SYSTEM CROSSES THE REGION THU NGT/FRI AND
STALLS JUST E/SE OF THE AREA AS SEVERAL SIGNIFICANT LOWS LIFT
NEWRD UP ALONG THIS BNDRY. EXPECT WDSPRD IFR/MVFR THRU THE PD W/
ONLY SOME GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT PSBL BY MON...

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WIND/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH TONIGHT AND
THEN INCREASE TO SCA LEVELS DURING THURSDAY. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT BEGINNING NOON TIME THURSDAY. PATCHY
FOG WILL REDUCE VISIBILITY TO 1 TO 3 NM IN FOG THROUGH THURSDAY.

SHORT TERM: A FRONTAL BNDRY WILL GRADUALLY MV INTO THE WATERS LATE
THU NGT AND FRI AND THEN STALL W/ SEVERAL SFC LOW PRES SYSTEMS
FCST TO LIFT NE ALONG THIS STALLED FRONTAL BNDRY. PERSISTENT SRLY
WNDS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL HELP ELEVATE SEAS W/ GENERIC SCA
CONDS EXPECTED INTO FRI. WNDS WILL ABATE AS THIS FRONTAL BNDRY
STALLS OVR THE WATERS BUT EXPECT A PROLONGED PD OF ELEVATED SEAS
TO PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND. CURRENT SCA HEADLINES INTO FRI WILL
LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED...

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO NOON EDT FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...FITZSIMMONS/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...FITZSIMMONS/HEWITT/
MARINE...FITZSIMMONS/HEWITT/

000
FXUS61 KGYX 230405 AAA
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1205 AM EDT THU MAY 23 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND
EARLY THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND WILL SLOWLY PUSH OFFSHORE THROUGH FRIDAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ON THE FRONT SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY
NIGHT AND IT WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWARD INTO THE
GULF OF MAINE BY SUNDAY EVENING. LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY CONTINUE
NORTHEAST INTO THE MARITIMES ON MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE
WEST ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
.UPDATE...
ALMOST ALL SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS MOVED OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA AND
INTO EASTERN MAINE. MORE CONVECTIVE LINES ARE MOVING THROUGH NEW
YORK AND WILL APPROACH VERMONT IN AN HOUR OR SO. ITS LIKELY THESE
STORMS WILL STAY NORTH OF THE COOLER AIR AND MOVE INTO SOUTHERN
QUEBEC. HOWEVER A FEW SHOWERS MAY REACH THE NORTHERN COUNTIES.
HAVE UPDATED TEMPERATURES...DEW POINTS...AND POPS FOR CURRENT
TRENDS.

&&

830 PM UPDATE...
AGAIN UPDATED GRIDS TO REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS. TSTM THREAT HAS
DIMINISHED ACROSS FORECAST AREA. OVER THE PAST HOUR...AREA OF
SHOWERS HAS DIMINISHED IN SIZE AND INTENSITY AND THIS TREND SHOULD
CONTINUE AS THESE SHOWERS MOVE EAST. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER
NY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT SO WILL CONTINUE CHC
SHOWERS OVERNIGHT.

430 PM UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED GRIDS TO REFLECT CURRENT AND FORECAST NEAR TERM
WEATHER. HAVE RAISED POPS ACROSS NH AND WESTERN MAINE FOR THIS
EVENING AND INCLUDED THE THREAT OF ISOLATED TSTMS WITH SMALL HAIL
ACROSS WESTERN SECTIONS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ELSEWHERE.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WARM FRONT STALLED OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL GRADUALLY LIFT
NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY. WEAK OVER-RUNNING WILL KEEP
SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR MOST AREAS BUT THINK THE BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL BE NORTH OF THE BORDER IN BETTER LIFT. OCEAN
STRATUS WILL AGAIN CLOSE IN MUCH OF THE REGION DOWNWIND OF THE
MOUNTAINS. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BACK IN EASTERN NEW
YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND MAY POKE INTO PORTIONS OF THE
CONNECTICUT VALLEY THIS EVENING BUT MARINE LAYER WILL INHIBIT ANY
FURTHER EASTWARD PROGRESS. LOOKING FOR LOW TEMPS RANGING THROUGH
THE 50S OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION ON THURSDAY WITH UNSTABLE
AND MOIST AIRMASS SETTLING INTO THE REGION FOR THE AFTERNOON. MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS SHOULD BLOW OCEAN STRATUS OUT
OF MOST SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF NEW HAMPSHIRE AND WESTERN MAINE
DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. EXPECT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORM TO QUICKLY DEVELOP DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCES OF PRECIP WILL BE IN WESTERN ZONES. WIDE
RANGE IN TEMPS TOMORROW WITH LOWER TO MID 70S IN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND
SOUTHWEST MAINE. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL MID COAST AREAS IN THE 60S.

SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY EDGE INTO THE REGION THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH A STEADY RAIN OVER-SPREADING MUCH OF THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. WILL ALSO LIKELY SEE SOME EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPR LVL SPLIT PATTERN WITH TROF LIFTING TO THE NE OVER NE CANADA AND
ANOTHER DIGGING TO TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. AT THE SFC THE CD
FNT SLOWLY MOVES THRU THEN LOW PRES FORMS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
ALONG THE FNT IN RESPONSE TO THE DIGGING UPR LVL TROF. THIS LOW THEN
TRACKS UP THE FNT PROVIDING HI PROB PRCP FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NGT. THE
UPR LVL TROF CUTS OFF TO OUR S THEN SLOWLY LIFTS N SATURDAY THRU
SUNDAY WITH THE SFC LOW TRACKING UP THE E COAST WHICH CONT THE PROB
PRCP SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NGT. THE LOW TRACKS UP THE ME COAST AND
TO OUR NE ON SUNDAY WITH STILL CHC SHRA.

FINALLY THE CUTOFF AND SFC LOWS LIFT FAR ENOUGH TO THE NE TO SEE
SLOW IMPROVEMENT TO OUR WX SUNDAY NGT AND MONDAY. UPR LVL RIDGE
AND SFC HIGH BUILD IN TUESDAY FOR FAIR AND MILDER WX.

GENERALLY USED BLEND OF GFS40, GMOS, HPC QPF, MEX MOS AND WNA4 FOR
THE LONG TERM FCST.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...IFR/LIFR CEILINGS/VSBYS TONIGHT...IMPROVING TO VFR ON
THURSDAY.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
IFR/LIFR IN SHRA FRIDAY THRU SATURDAY NGT AND STILL MVFR/IFR
LIKELY TO PERSIST ON SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SCA IN EFFECT THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...EXTENDED SOUTHERLY FLOW
FRIDAY AHEAD OF APPROACHING CD FNT MAY SEE WIND GUSTS REACH SCA
LEVELS. SEAS FROM PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW LIKELY TO RESULT IN SCA
LEVELS FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FRIDAY. WINDS BECOME NORTHERLY BEHIND
THE FNT FRIDAY NGT THRU THE WEEKEND AND AGAIN MAY SEE SCA GUSTS.
SEAS CONT TO ROUGH AT SCA LEVELS THRU THE WEEKEND AS WELL.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO PROBLEMS NOTED.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO NOON EDT FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HANES

000
FXUS61 KCAR 230227
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1027 PM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS NORTH ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT
AND THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT TO OUR WEST ON THURSDAY THEN
GRADUALLY PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT
WITH RAIN EXPECTED FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
1010 PM UPDATE: ADDED FOG FOR THE ENTIRE CWA OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS
MOVING INTO THE CWA W/A LARGER AREA OVER THE DOWNEAST DUE TO EARLIER
CONVECTION COMING OUT OF VT AND NH. AN AREA OF SHOWERS TO THE NORTH
ATTM MOVING INTO A REGION MORE FAVORABLE TO THE SHOWERS HOLDING TOGETHER.

WHATS LEFT OF THE CONVECTION OVER NH AND MA MAY MAKE IT INTO PORTIONS
OF DOWNEAST MAINE LATER THIS EVENING IN THE FORM OF SOME REMNANT
SHOWERS AS THE ACTIVITY WEAKENS IN THE MORE STABLE AIR ACROSS OUR
AREA. HAVE INDICATED SOME HIGHER POPS LATER THIS EVENING ACROSS
DOWNEAST MAINE TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS MAINLY AFTER 8 PM. OTHERWISE...IT
WILL CONTINUE CLOUDY ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT AS DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
CONTINUES WITH MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW
IN THE LOW LEVELS CONTINUING. EXPECT THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS
THE REGION OVERNIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL NOT FALL THAT MUCH FROM
CURRENT LATE AFTERNOON READINGS WITH ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND MOISTURE
IN PLACE.

ON THURSDAY AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MIGRATE
EAST ACROSS THE GREAT REGION WITH A BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW
CONTINUING ALOFT. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
SLOWLY TRACK NORTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHERN QUEBEC AS IT PULLS A COLD
FRONT EAST. THE FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE EAST AS IT PARALLELS
THE FLOW ALOFT. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LATER THURSDAY MORNING AND THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
FRONT MOVES SLOWLY TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE WEST. BIG QUESTION
ON THURSDAY WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR ANY CONVECTION TO DEVELOP IN
ADVANCE OF THE FRONT THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE
MORE AGGRESSIVE IN DESTABILIZING THINGS DURING THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND CONTINUES TO SHOW SB CAPES IN THE 500-1000J/KG RANGE MAINLY
ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN SECTIONS. THERE IS SOME SHEAR IN THE
0-6 KM LAYER ON THE MAGNITUDE OF 30 TO 40 KTS. AGAIN THE BIG
QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH INSTABILITY WE SEE AND THIS WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS THAT MIGHT OCCUR ON
THURSDAY. STILL LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEEING ANY THUNDER
WILL BE ACROSS WESTERN AREAS WHERE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE
SOUTHWEST IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT LATER IN THE DAY. HAVE INDICATED
THE HIGHEST POPS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN AND
WESTERN SECTIONS DURING THURSDAY. CURRENT THINKING IS ANY STORMS
WOULD BE SUB SEVERE BUT ANY STORMS COULD HAVE SOME GUSTY WINDS.
ALSO...INCLUDED THE MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS
WITH PWATS RUNNING 1 TO 1.5 INCHES. DECIDED TO KEEP THE MENTION OF
THUNDERS OUT OF EASTERN MAINE SINCE THINKING IS THINGS SHOULD
REMAIN MORE STABLE HERE WITH MARINE LAYER IN PLACE. HAVE LEANED
CLOSER TO MOS MAV NOS FOR HIGH TEMPS ON THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A VRY COOL AND WET WX PTRN WILL DRIVE OUR WX THRU THE SHORT TERM
PD... THE ENTIRE 12Z MODEL SUITE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT W/
OVERALL TRENDS DURING THE PD THO SOME DIFFS EXIST IN THE SPECIFIC
DETAILS. A SLOW MVG FRONTAL BNDRY IS FCST TO ENTER WRN/NWRN AREAS
THU NGT AND SLOWLY PUSH SEWRD ACROSS THE FA LATER THU NGT THRU FRI
AS A SERIES OF WEAK SFC WAVES LIFT NE ALONG THIS BNDRY. THIS FRONT
IS FCST TO FINALLY STALL JUST E AND SE OF THE FA BY LATER FRI
NGT/ERLY SAT AS A STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRES LIFTS NEWRD UP ALONG
THIS BNDRY W/ MOST MODELS POSITIONING SFC LOW PRES OVR THE GOM BY
12Z SAT. THIS LOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO WRAP UP AND DRIFT SLOWLY NE
THRU SAT AND THE REMAINDER OF THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
UNFORTUNATELY...VRY WET/COOL AND DREARY CONDS WILL RESULT W/
LITTLE HOPE OF ANY MAJOR DEVIATIONS FROM THESE TRENDS ATTM.

WILL INTRODUCE LIKELY TO CAT POPS N AND W THU EVE AND SPREAD THESE
HIGH POPS SEWRD THRU THU NGT W/ LIKELY TO CAT POPS CONTG RGT THRU
SAT FOR ALL BUT OUR FAR NWRN AREAS. WILL ALSO KEEP MENTION OF
THUNDER THRU THE EVE HRS W/ THIS THREAT EXPECTED TO MOSTLY
DIMINISH BY MDNGT.

VRY CHILLY AIR WILL FOLLOW THE FRONTAL BNDRY BY FRI AND THIS
COMBINED W/ ABUNDANT CLDS AND PRECIP WILL RESULT IN FCST HIGHS
ONLY IN THE LOWER 50S N ON FRI AND ONLY IN THE UPPER 40S ACROSS
THE N ON SAT...

PRECIP AMOUNTS DURING THIS PD SHOULD RANGE FROM AROUND .75 FAR NW
TO BTWN 1.0 AND 1.5 INCHES ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL BRING RAIN
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CHILLY
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. ACTUALLY...TEMPERATURES COULD
END UP BEING LOWER WITHOUT SOME BRIEF BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AND
RAIN. THIS WILL BE A SLOW-MOVING CUT-OFF LOW. BY MONDAY
MORNING...THE LOW WILL BE OVER THE AREA AND SHOWERS WILL PERSIST
MONDAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL FINALLY BUILD MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PRODUCE DRY CONDITIONS
UNTIL LATE WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES RISING THROUGH THE PERIOD.
HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TOWARDS 70F BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS EARLY THIS EVENING WILL GIVE WAY
TO WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS OVERNIGHT. IFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
INTO THURSDAY BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD GIVE WAY TO MVFR ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TERMINALS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON IN SHOWERS AND SCT
THUNDERSTORMS. IFR CONDITIONS MAY CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AT KBGR/KBHB TERMINALS IN LOW CLOUDS.

SHORT TERM: POOR FLYING CONDS ARE EXPECTED THRU MUCH OF THE PD AS
A SLOW MVG FRONTAL SYSTEM CROSSES THE REGION THU NGT/FRI AND
STALLS JUST E/SE OF THE AREA AS SEVERAL SIGNIFICANT LOWS LIFT
NEWRD UP ALONG THIS BNDRY. EXPECT WDSPRD IFR/MVFR THRU THE PD W/
ONLY SOME GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT PSBL BY MON...

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WIND/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH TONIGHT AND
THEN INCREASE TO SCA LEVELS DURING THURSDAY. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT BEGINNING NOON TIME THURSDAY. PATCHY
FOG WILL REDUCE VISIBILITY TO 1 TO 3 NM IN FOG THROUGH THURSDAY.

SHORT TERM: A FRONTAL BNDRY WILL GRADUALLY MV INTO THE WATERS LATE
THU NGT AND FRI AND THEN STALL W/ SEVERAL SFC LOW PRES SYSTEMS
FCST TO LIFT NE ALONG THIS STALLED FRONTAL BNDRY. PERSISTENT SRLY
WNDS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL HELP ELEVATE SEAS W/ GENERIC SCA
CONDS EXPECTED INTO FRI. WNDS WILL ABATE AS THIS FRONTAL BNDRY
STALLS OVR THE WATERS BUT EXPECT A PROLONGED PD OF ELEVATED SEAS
TO PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND. CURRENT SCA HEADLINES INTO FRI WILL
LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED...

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON THURSDAY TO NOON EDT FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT

000
FXUS61 KGYX 230050
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
850 PM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND
EARLY THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND WILL SLOWLY PUSH OFFSHORE THROUGH FRIDAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ON THE FRONT SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY
NIGHT AND IT WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWARD INTO THE
GULF OF MAINE BY SUNDAY EVENING. LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY CONTINUE
NORTHEAST INTO THE MARITIMES ON MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE
WEST ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
830 PM UPDATE...
AGAIN UPDATED GRIDS TO REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS. TSTM THREAT HAS
DIMINISHED ACROSS FORECAT AREA. OVER THE PAST HOUR...AREA OF
SHOWERS HAS DIMINISHED IN SIZE AND INTENSITY AND THIS TREND SHOULD
CONTINUE AS THESE SHOWERS MOVE EAST. WIDELY SCTTERED SHOWERS OVER
NY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT SO WILL CONTINUE CHC
SHOWERS OVERNIGHT.

430 PM UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED GRIDS TO RELECT CURRENT AND FORECAST NEAR TERM
WEATHER. HAVE RAISED POPS ACROSS NH AND WESTERN MAINE FOR THIS
EVENING AND INCLUDED THE THREAT OF ISOLATED TSTMS WITH SMALL HAIL
ACROSS WESTERN SECTIONS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ELSEWHERE.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WARM FRONT STALLED OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL GRADUALLY LIFT
NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY. WEAK OVER-RUNNING WILL KEEP
SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR MOST AREAS BUT THINK THE BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL BE NORTH OF THE BORDER IN BETTER LIFT. OCEAN
STRATUS WILL AGAIN CLOSE IN MUCH OF THE REGION DOWNWIND OF THE
MOUNTAINS. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BACK IN EASTERN NEW
YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND MAY POKE INTO PORTIONS OF THE
CONNECTICUT VALLEY THIS EVENING BUT MARINE LAYER WILL INHIBIT ANY
FURTHER EASTWARD PROGRESS. LOOKING FOR LOW TEMPS RANGING THROUGH
THE 50S OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION ON THURSDAY WITH UNSTABLE
AND MOIST AIRMASS SETTLING INTO THE REGION FOR THE AFTERNOON. MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS SHOULD BLOW OCEAN STRATUS OUT
OF MOST SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF NEW HAMPSHIRE AND WESTERN MAINE
DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. EXPECT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORM TO QUICKLY DEVELOP DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCES OF PRECIP WILL BE IN WESTERN ZONES. WIDE
RANGE IN TEMPS TOMORROW WITH LOWER TO MID 70S IN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND
SOUTHWEST MAINE. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL MID COAST AREAS IN THE 60S.

SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY EDGE INTO THE REGION THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH A STEADY RAIN OVER-SPREADING MUCH OF THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. WILL ALSO LIKELY SEE SOME EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPR LVL SPLIT PATTERN WITH TROF LIFTING TO THE NE OVER NE CANADA AND
ANOTHER DIGGING TO TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. AT THE SFC THE CD
FNT SLOWLY MOVES THRU THEN LOW PRES FORMS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
ALONG THE FNT IN RESPONSE TO THE DIGGING UPR LVL TROF. THIS LOW THEN
TRACKS UP THE FNT PROVIDING HI PROB PRCP FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NGT. THE
UPR LVL TROF CUTS OFF TO OUR S THEN SLOWLY LIFTS N SATURDAY THRU
SUNDAY WITH THE SFC LOW TRACKING UP THE E COAST WHICH CONT THE PROB
PRCP SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NGT. THE LOW TRACKS UP THE ME COAST AND
TO OUR NE ON SUNDAY WITH STILL CHC SHRA.

FINALLY THE CUTOFF AND SFC LOWS LIFT FAR ENOUGH TO THE NE TO SEE
SLOW IMPROVEMENT TO OUR WX SUNDAY NGT AND MONDAY. UPR LVL RIDGE
AND SFC HIGH BUILD IN TUESDAY FOR FAIR AND MILDER WX.

GENERALLY USED BLEND OF GFS40, GMOS, HPC QPF, MEX MOS AND WNA4 FOR
THE LONG TERM FCST.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...IFR/LIFR CEILINGS/VSBYS TONIGHT...IMPROVING TO VFR ON
THURSDAY.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
IFR/LIFR IN SHRA FRIDAY THRU SATURDAY NGT AND STILL MVFR/IFR
LIKELY TO PERSIST ON SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SCA IN EFFECT THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...EXTENDED SOUTHERLY FLOW
FRIDAY AHEAD OF APPROACHING CD FNT MAY SEE WIND GUSTS REACH SCA
LEVELS. SEAS FROM PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW LIKELY TO RESULT IN SCA
LEVELS FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FRIDAY. WINDS BECOME NORTHERLY BEHIND
THE FNT FRIDAY NGT THRU THE WEEKEND AND AGAIN MAY SEE SCA GUSTS.
SEAS CONT TO ROUGH AT SCA LEVELS THRU THE WEEKEND AS WELL.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO PROBLEMS NOTED.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON THURSDAY TO NOON EDT FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...JENSENIUS

000
FXUS61 KCAR 222234
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
634 PM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS NORTH ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT
AND THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT TO OUR WEST ON THURSDAY THEN
GRADUALLY PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT
WITH RAIN EXPECTED FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
633 PM UPDATE: UPDATED THE FCST TO INCLUDE DRIZZLE W/FOG OVER THE
DOWNEAST COAST. 22Z LAPS SOUNDINGS INDICATE A DRIZZLE SETUP
W/LIGHT SSE FLOW IN LLVLS & DEEP MOISTURE W/DRY AIR ALOFT. THE
DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE ON AND OFF INTO THE LATE EVENING.

WHATS LEFT OF THE CONVECTION OVER NH AND MA MAY MAKE IT INTO
PORTIONS OF DOWNEAST MAINE LATER THIS EVENING IN THE FORM OF SOME
REMNANT SHOWERS AS THE ACTIVITY WEAKENS IN THE MORE STABLE AIR
ACROSS OUR AREA. HAVE INDICATED SOME HIGHER POPS LATER THIS
EVENING ACROSS DOWNEAST MAINE TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS MAINLY AFTER 8
PM. OTHERWISE...IT WILL CONTINUE CLOUDY ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT AS DEEP LAYER MOISTURE CONTINUES WITH MOIST SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS CONTINUING.
EXPECT THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT FALL THAT MUCH FROM CURRENT LATE AFTERNOON
READINGS WITH ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND MOISTURE IN PLACE.

ON THURSDAY AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MIGRATE
EAST ACROSS THE GREAT REGION WITH A BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW
CONTINUING ALOFT. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
SLOWLY TRACK NORTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHERN QUEBEC AS IT PULLS A COLD
FRONT EAST. THE FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE EAST AS IT PARALLELS
THE FLOW ALOFT. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LATER THURSDAY MORNING AND THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
FRONT MOVES SLOWLY TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE WEST. BIG QUESTION
ON THURSDAY WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR ANY CONVECTION TO DEVELOP IN
ADVANCE OF THE FRONT THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE
MORE AGGRESSIVE IN DESTABILIZING THINGS DURING THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND CONTINUES TO SHOW SB CAPES IN THE 500-1000J/KG RANGE MAINLY
ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN SECTIONS. THERE IS SOME SHEAR IN THE
0-6 KM LAYER ON THE MAGNITUDE OF 30 TO 40 KTS. AGAIN THE BIG
QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH INSTABILITY WE SEE AND THIS WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS THAT MIGHT OCCUR ON
THURSDAY. STILL LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEEING ANY THUNDER
WILL BE ACROSS WESTERN AREAS WHERE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE
SOUTHWEST IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT LATER IN THE DAY. HAVE INDICATED
THE HIGHEST POPS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN AND
WESTERN SECTIONS DURING THURSDAY. CURRENT THINKING IS ANY STORMS
WOULD BE SUB SEVERE BUT ANY STORMS COULD HAVE SOME GUSTY WINDS.
ALSO...INCLUDED THE MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS
WITH PWATS RUNNING 1 TO 1.5 INCHES. DECIDED TO KEEP THE MENTION OF
THUNDERS OUT OF EASTERN MAINE SINCE THINKING IS THINGS SHOULD
REMAIN MORE STABLE HERE WITH MARINE LAYER IN PLACE. HAVE LEANED
CLOSER TO MOS MAV NOS FOR HIGH TEMPS ON THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A VRY COOL AND WET WX PTRN WILL DRIVE OUR WX THRU THE SHORT TERM
PD... THE ENTIRE 12Z MODEL SUITE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT W/
OVERALL TRENDS DURING THE PD THO SOME DIFFS EXIST IN THE SPECIFIC
DETAILS. A SLOW MVG FRONTAL BNDRY IS FCST TO ENTER WRN/NWRN AREAS
THU NGT AND SLOWLY PUSH SEWRD ACROSS THE FA LATER THU NGT THRU FRI
AS A SERIES OF WEAK SFC WAVES LIFT NE ALONG THIS BNDRY. THIS FRONT
IS FCST TO FINALLY STALL JUST E AND SE OF THE FA BY LATER FRI
NGT/ERLY SAT AS A STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRES LIFTS NEWRD UP ALONG
THIS BNDRY W/ MOST MODELS POSITIONING SFC LOW PRES OVR THE GOM BY
12Z SAT. THIS LOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO WRAP UP AND DRIFT SLOWLY NE
THRU SAT AND THE REMAINDER OF THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
UNFORTUNATELY...VRY WET/COOL AND DREARY CONDS WILL RESULT W/
LITTLE HOPE OF ANY MAJOR DEVIATIONS FROM THESE TRENDS ATTM.

WILL INTRODUCE LIKELY TO CAT POPS N AND W THU EVE AND SPREAD THESE
HIGH POPS SEWRD THRU THU NGT W/ LIKELY TO CAT POPS CONTG RGT THRU
SAT FOR ALL BUT OUR FAR NWRN AREAS. WILL ALSO KEEP MENTION OF
THUNDER THRU THE EVE HRS W/ THIS THREAT EXPECTED TO MOSTLY
DIMINISH BY MDNGT.

VRY CHILLY AIR WILL FOLLOW THE FRONTAL BNDRY BY FRI AND THIS
COMBINED W/ ABUNDANT CLDS AND PRECIP WILL RESULT IN FCST HIGHS
ONLY IN THE LOWER 50S N ON FRI AND ONLY IN THE UPPER 40S ACROSS
THE N ON SAT...

PRECIP AMOUNTS DURING THIS PD SHOULD RANGE FROM AROUND .75 FAR NW
TO BTWN 1.0 AND 1.5 INCHES ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL BRING RAIN
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CHILLY
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. ACTUALLY...TEMPERATURES COULD
END UP BEING LOWER WITHOUT SOME BRIEF BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AND
RAIN. THIS WILL BE A SLOW-MOVING CUT-OFF LOW. BY MONDAY
MORNING...THE LOW WILL BE OVER THE AREA AND SHOWERS WILL PERSIST
MONDAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL FINALLY BUILD MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PRODUCE DRY CONDITIONS
UNTIL LATE WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES RISING THROUGH THE PERIOD.
HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TOWARDS 70F BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS EARLY THIS EVENING WILL GIVE WAY
TO WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS OVERNIGHT. IFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
INTO THURSDAY BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD GIVE WAY TO MVFR ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TERMINALS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON IN SHOWERS AND SCT
THUNDERSTORMS. IFR CONDITIONS MAY CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AT KBGR/KBHB TERMINALS IN LOW CLOUDS.

SHORT TERM: POOR FLYING CONDS ARE EXPECTED THRU MUCH OF THE PD AS
A SLOW MVG FRONTAL SYSTEM CROSSES THE REGION THU NGT/FRI AND
STALLS JUST E/SE OF THE AREA AS SEVERAL SIGNIFICANT LOWS LIFT
NEWRD UP ALONG THIS BNDRY. EXPECT WDSPRD IFR/MVFR THRU THE PD W/
ONLY SOME GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT PSBL BY MON...

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WIND/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH TONIGHT AND
THEN INCREASE TO SCA LEVELS DURING THURSDAY. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT BEGINNING NOON TIME THURSDAY. PATCHY
FOG WILL REDUCE VISIBILITY TO 1 TO 3 NM IN FOG THROUGH THURSDAY.

SHORT TERM: A FRONTAL BNDRY WILL GRADUALLY MV INTO THE WATERS LATE
THU NGT AND FRI AND THEN STALL W/ SEVERAL SFC LOW PRES SYSTEMS
FCST TO LIFT NE ALONG THIS STALLED FRONTAL BNDRY. PERSISTENT SRLY
WNDS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL HELP ELEVATE SEAS W/ GENERIC SCA
CONDS EXPECTED INTO FRI. WNDS WILL ABATE AS THIS FRONTAL BNDRY
STALLS OVR THE WATERS BUT EXPECT A PROLONGED PD OF ELEVATED SEAS
TO PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND. CURRENT SCA HEADLINES INTO FRI WILL
LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED...

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON THURSDAY TO NOON EDT FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...DUDA/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...KHW
LONG TERM...MCW
AVIATION...DUDA/HEWITT/KHW
MARINE...DUDA/HEWITT/KHW

000
FXUS61 KGYX 222052
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
452 PM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND
EARLY THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND WILL SLOWLY PUSH OFFSHORE THROUGH FRIDAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ON THE FRONT SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY
NIGHT AND IT WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWARD INTO THE
GULF OF MAINE BY SUNDAY EVENING. LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY CONTINUE
NORTHEAST INTO THE MARITIMES ON MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE
WEST ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
430 PM UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED GRIDS TO RELECT CURRENT AND FORECAST NEAR TERM
WEATHER. HAVE RAISED POPS ACROSS NH AND WESTERN MAINE FOR THIS
EVENING AND INCLUDED THE THREAT OF ISOLATED TSTMS WITH SMALL HAIL
ACROSS WESTERN SECTIONS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ELSEWHERE.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WARM FRONT STALLED OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL GRADUALLY LIFT
NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY. WEAK OVER-RUNNING WILL KEEP
SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR MOST AREAS BUT THINK THE BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL BE NORTH OF THE BORDER IN BETTER LIFT. OCEAN
STRATUS WILL AGAIN CLOSE IN MUCH OF THE REGION DOWNWIND OF THE
MOUNTAINS. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BACK IN EASTERN NEW
YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND MAY POKE INTO PORTIONS OF THE
CONNECTICUT VALLEY THIS EVENING BUT MARINE LAYER WILL INHIBIT ANY
FURTHER EASTWARD PROGRESS. LOOKING FOR LOW TEMPS RANGING THROUGH
THE 50S OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION ON THURSDAY WITH UNSTABLE
AND MOIST AIRMASS SETTLING INTO THE REGION FOR THE AFTERNOON. MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS SHOULD BLOW OCEAN STRATUS OUT
OF MOST SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF NEW HAMPSHIRE AND WESTERN MAINE
DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. EXPECT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORM TO QUICKLY DEVELOP DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCES OF PRECIP WILL BE IN WESTERN ZONES. WIDE
RANGE IN TEMPS TOMORROW WITH LOWER TO MID 70S IN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND
SOUTHWEST MAINE. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL MID COAST AREAS IN THE 60S.

SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY EDGE INTO THE REGION THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH A STEADY RAIN OVER-SPREADING MUCH OF THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. WILL ALSO LIKELY SEE SOME EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPR LVL SPLIT PATTERN WITH TROF LIFTING TO THE NE OVER NE CANADA AND
ANOTHER DIGGING TO TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. AT THE SFC THE CD
FNT SLOWLY MOVES THRU THEN LOW PRES FORMS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
ALONG THE FNT IN RESPONSE TO THE DIGGING UPR LVL TROF. THIS LOW THEN
TRACKS UP THE FNT PROVIDING HI PROB PRCP FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NGT. THE
UPR LVL TROF CUTS OFF TO OUR S THEN SLOWLY LIFTS N SATURDAY THRU
SUNDAY WITH THE SFC LOW TRACKING UP THE E COAST WHICH CONT THE PROB
PRCP SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NGT. THE LOW TRACKS UP THE ME COAST AND
TO OUR NE ON SUNDAY WITH STILL CHC SHRA.

FINALLY THE CUTOFF AND SFC LOWS LIFT FAR ENOUGH TO THE NE TO SEE
SLOW IMPROVEMENT TO OUR WX SUNDAY NGT AND MONDAY. UPR LVL RIDGE
AND SFC HIGH BUILD IN TUESDAY FOR FAIR AND MILDER WX.

GENERALLY USED BLEND OF GFS40, GMOS, HPC QPF, MEX MOS AND WNA4 FOR
THE LONG TERM FCST.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...IFR/LIFR CEILINGS/VSBYS TONIGHT...IMPROVING TO VFR ON
THURSDAY.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
IFR/LIFR IN SHRA FRIDAY THRU SATURDAY NGT AND STILL MVFR/IFR
LIKELY TO PERSIST ON SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SCA IN EFFECT THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...EXTENDED SOUTHERLY FLOW
FRIDAY AHEAD OF APPROACHING CD FNT MAY SEE WIND GUSTS REACH SCA
LEVELS. SEAS FROM PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW LIKELY TO RESULT IN SCA
LEVELS FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FRIDAY. WINDS BECOME NORTHERLY BEHIND
THE FNT FRIDAY NGT THRU THE WEEKEND AND AGAIN MAY SEE SCA GUSTS.
SEAS CONT TO ROUGH AT SCA LEVELS THRU THE WEEKEND AS WELL.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO PROBLEMS NOTED.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON THURSDAY TO NOON EDT FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...JENSENIUS

000
FXUS61 KCAR 221951
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
351 PM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS NORTH ACROSS THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT TO OUR WEST ON THURSDAY
THEN GRADUALLY PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE
FRONT WITH RAIN EXPECTED FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEAR TERM.
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WARM FRONT WELL TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS
NYS AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. LATEST RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS CONVECTION
FIRING UP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AS OF LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WHATS LEFT
OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY MAKE IT INTO PORTIONS OF DOWNEAST MAINE LATER
THIS EVENING IN THE FORM OF SOME REMNANT SHOWERS AS THE ACTIVITY
WEAKENS IN THE MORE STABLE AIR ACROSS OUR AREA. HAVE INDICATED SOME
HIGHER POPS LATER THIS EVENING ACROSS DOWNEAST MAINE TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS MAINLY AFTER 8 PM. OTHERWISE...IT WILL CONTINUE CLOUDY ACROSS
THE REGION OVERNIGHT AS DEEP LAYER MOISTURE CONTINUES WITH MOIST
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS
CONTINUING. EXPECT THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL NOT FALL THAT MUCH FROM CURRENT
LATE AFTERNOON READINGS WITH ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND MOISTURE IN
PLACE.

ON THURSDAY AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MIGRATE
EAST ACROSS THE GREAT REGION WITH A BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW
CONTINUING ALOFT. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
SLOWLY TRACK NORTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHERN QUEBEC AS IT PULLS A COLD
FRONT EAST. THE FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE EAST AS IT PARALLELS
THE FLOW ALOFT. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LATER THURSDAY MORNING AND THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
FRONT MOVES SLOWLY TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE WEST. BIG QUESTION
ON THURSDAY WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR ANY CONVECTION TO DEVELOP IN
ADVANCE OF THE FRONT THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE
MORE AGGRESSIVE IN DESTABILIZING THINGS DURING THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND CONTINUES TO SHOW SB CAPES IN THE 500-1000J/KG RANGE MAINLY
ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN SECTIONS. THERE IS SOME SHEAR IN THE
0-6 KM LAYER ON THE MAGNITUDE OF 30 TO 40 KTS. AGAIN THE BIG
QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH INSTABILITY WE SEE AND THIS WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS THAT MIGHT OCCUR ON
THURSDAY. STILL LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEEING ANY THUNDER
WILL BE ACROSS WESTERN AREAS WHERE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE
SOUTHWEST IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT LATER IN THE DAY. HAVE INDICATED
THE HIGHEST POPS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN AND
WESTERN SECTIONS DURING THURSDAY. CURRENT THINKING IS ANY STORMS
WOULD BE SUB SEVERE BUT ANY STORMS COULD HAVE SOME GUSTY WINDS.
ALSO...INCLUDED THE MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS
WITH PWATS RUNNING 1 TO 1.5 INCHES. DECIDED TO KEEP THE MENTION OF
THUNDERS OUT OF EASTERN MAINE SINCE THINKING IS THINGS SHOULD
REMAIN MORE STABLE HERE WITH MARINE LAYER IN PLACE. HAVE LEANED
CLOSER TO MOS MAV NOS FOR HIGH TEMPS ON THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A VRY COOL AND WET WX PTRN WILL DRIVE OUR WX THRU THE SHORT TERM
PD... THE ENTIRE 12Z MODEL SUITE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT W/
OVERALL TRENDS DURING THE PD THO SOME DIFFS EXIST IN THE SPECIFIC
DETAILS. A SLOW MVG FRONTAL BNDRY IS FCST TO ENTER WRN/NWRN AREAS
THU NGT AND SLOWLY PUSH SEWRD ACROSS THE FA LATER THU NGT THRU FRI
AS A SERIES OF WEAK SFC WAVES LIFT NE ALONG THIS BNDRY. THIS FRONT
IS FCST TO FINALLY STALL JUST E AND SE OF THE FA BY LATER FRI
NGT/ERLY SAT AS A STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRES LIFTS NEWRD UP ALONG
THIS BNDRY W/ MOST MODELS POSITIONING SFC LOW PRES OVR THE GOM BY
12Z SAT. THIS LOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO WRAP UP AND DRIFT SLOWLY NE
THRU SAT AND THE REMAINDER OF THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
UNFORTUNATELY...VRY WET/COOL AND DREARY CONDS WILL RESULT W/
LITTLE HOPE OF ANY MAJOR DEVIATIONS FROM THESE TRENDS ATTM.

WILL INTRODUCE LIKELY TO CAT POPS N AND W THU EVE AND SPREAD THESE
HIGH POPS SEWRD THRU THU NGT W/ LIKELY TO CAT POPS CONTG RGT THRU
SAT FOR ALL BUT OUR FAR NWRN AREAS. WILL ALSO KEEP MENTION OF
THUNDER THRU THE EVE HRS W/ THIS THREAT EXPECTED TO MOSTLY
DIMINISH BY MDNGT.

VRY CHILLY AIR WILL FOLLOW THE FRONTAL BNDRY BY FRI AND THIS
COMBINED W/ ABUNDANT CLDS AND PRECIP WILL RESULT IN FCST HIGHS
ONLY IN THE LOWER 50S N ON FRI AND ONLY IN THE UPPER 40S ACROSS
THE N ON SAT...

PRECIP AMOUNTS DURING THIS PD SHOULD RANGE FROM AROUND .75 FAR NW
TO BTWN 1.0 AND 1.5 INCHES ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA.
&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL BRING RAIN
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CHILLY
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. ACTUALLY...TEMPERATURES COULD
END UP BEING LOWER WITHOUT SOME BRIEF BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AND
RAIN. THIS WILL BE A SLOW-MOVING CUT-OFF LOW. BY MONDAY
MORNING...THE LOW WILL BE OVER THE AREA AND SHOWERS WILL PERSIST
MONDAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL FINALLY BUILD MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PRODUCE DRY CONDITIONS
UNTIL LATE WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES RISING THROUGH THE PERIOD.
HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TOWARDS 70F BY WEDNESDAY.
&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS EARLY THIS EVENING WILL GIVE WAY
TO WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS OVERNIGHT. IFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
INTO THURSDAY BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD GIVE WAY TO MVFR ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TERMINALS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON IN SHOWERS AND SCT
THUNDERSTORMS. IFR CONDITIONS MAY CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AT KBGR/KBHB TERMINALS IN LOW CLOUDS.

SHORT TERM: POOR FLYING CONDS ARE EXPECTED THRU MUCH OF THE PD AS
A SLOW MVG FRONTAL SYSTEM CROSSES THE REGION THU NGT/FRI AND
STALLS JUST E/SE OF THE AREA AS SEVERAL SIGNIFICANT LOWS LIFT
NEWRD UP ALONG THIS BNDRY. EXPECT WDSPRD IFR/MVFR THRU THE PD W/
ONLY SOME GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT PSBL BY MON...
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WIND/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH TONIGHT AND
THEN INCREASE TO SCA LEVELS DURING THURSDAY. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT BEGINNING NOON TIME THURSDAY. PATCHY
FOG WILL REDUCE VISIBILITY TO 1 TO 3 NM IN FOG THROUGH THURSDAY.

SHORT TERM: A FRONTAL BNDRY WILL GRADUALLY MV INTO THE WATERS LATE
THU NGT AND FRI AND THEN STALL W/ SEVERAL SFC LOW PRES SYSTEMS
FCST TO LIFT NE ALONG THIS STALLED FRONTAL BNDRY. PERSISTENT SRLY
WNDS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL HELP ELEVATE SEAS W/ GENERIC SCA
CONDS EXPECTED INTO FRI. WNDS WILL ABATE AS THIS FRONTAL BNDRY
STALLS OVR THE WATERS BUT EXPECT A PROLONGED PD OF ELEVATED SEAS
TO PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND. CURRENT SCA HEADLINES INTO FRI WILL
LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED...
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON THURSDAY TO NOON EDT FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ050>052.
&&

$$
NEAR TERM...DUDA
SHORT TERM...KHW
LONG TERM...MCW
AVIATION...DUDA/KHW
MARINE...DUDA/KHW

000
FXUS61 KGYX 221857
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
257 PM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND
EARLY THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND WILL SLOWLY PUSH OFFSHORE THROUGH FRIDAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ON THE FRONT SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY
NIGHT AND IT WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWARD INTO THE
GULF OF MAINE BY SUNDAY EVENING. LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY CONTINUE
NORTHEAST INTO THE MARITIMES ON MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE
WEST ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WARM FRONT STALLED OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL GRADUALLY LIFT
NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY. WEAK OVER-RUNNING WILL KEEP
SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR MOST AREAS BUT THINK THE BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL BE NORTH OF THE BORDER IN BETTER LIFT. OCEAN
STRATUS WILL AGAIN CLOSE IN MUCH OF THE REGION DOWNWIND OF THE
MOUNTAINS. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BACK IN EASTERN NEW
YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND MAY POKE INTO PORTIONS OF THE
CONNECTICUT VALLEY THIS EVENING BUT MARINE LAYER WILL INHIBIT ANY
FURTHER EASTWARD PROGRESS. LOOKING FOR LOW TEMPS RANGING THROUGH
THE 50S OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION ON THURSDAY WITH UNSTABLE
AND MOIST AIRMASS SETTLING INTO THE REGION FOR THE AFTERNOON. MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS SHOULD BLOW OCEAN STRATUS OUT
OF MOST SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF NEW HAMPSHIRE AND WESTERN MAINE
DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. EXPECT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORM TO QUICKLY DEVELOP DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCES OF PRECIP WILL BE IN WESTERN ZONES. WIDE
RANGE IN TEMPS TOMORROW WITH LOWER TO MID 70S IN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND
SOUTHWEST MAINE. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL MID COAST AREAS IN THE 60S.

SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY EDGE INTO THE REGION THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH A STEADY RAIN OVER-SPREADING MUCH OF THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. WILL ALSO LIKELY SEE SOME EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPR LVL SPLIT PATTERN WITH TROF LIFTING TO THE NE OVER NE CANADA AND
ANOTHER DIGGING TO TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. AT THE SFC THE CD
FNT SLOWLY MOVES THRU THEN LOW PRES FORMS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
ALONG THE FNT IN RESPONSE TO THE DIGGING UPR LVL TROF. THIS LOW THEN
TRACKS UP THE FNT PROVIDING HI PROB PRCP FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NGT. THE
UPR LVL TROF CUTS OFF TO OUR S THEN SLOWLY LIFTS N SATURDAY THRU
SUNDAY WITH THE SFC LOW TRACKING UP THE E COAST WHICH CONT THE PROB
PRCP SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NGT. THE LOW TRACKS UP THE ME COAST AND
TO OUR NE ON SUNDAY WITH STILL CHC SHRA.

FINALLY THE CUTOFF AND SFC LOWS LIFT FAR ENOUGH TO THE NE TO SEE
SLOW IMPROVEMENT TO OUR WX SUNDAY NGT AND MONDAY. UPR LVL RIDGE
AND SFC HIGH BUILD IN TUESDAY FOR FAIR AND MILDER WX.

GENERALLY USED BLEND OF GFS40, GMOS, HPC QPF, MEX MOS AND WNA4 FOR
THE LONG TERM FCST.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...IFR/LIFR CEILINGS/VSBYS TONIGHT...IMPROVING TO VFR ON
THURSDAY.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
IFR/LIFR IN SHRA FRIDAY THRU SATURDAY NGT AND STILL MVFR/IFR
LIKELY TO PERSIST ON SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SCA IN EFFECT THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...EXTENDED SOUTHERLY FLOW
FRIDAY AHEAD OF APPROACHING CD FNT MAY SEE WIND GUSTS REACH SCA
LEVELS. SEAS FROM PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW LIKELY TO RESULT IN SCA
LEVELS FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FRIDAY. WINDS BECOME NORTHERLY BEHIND
THE FNT FRIDAY NGT THRU THE WEEKEND AND AGAIN MAY SEE SCA GUSTS.
SEAS CONT TO ROUGH AT SCA LEVELS THRU THE WEEKEND AS WELL.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NO PROBLEMS NOTED.


&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON THURSDAY TO NOON EDT FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

000
FXUS61 KCAR 221649
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1249 PM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS NORTH ACROSS THE REGION TODAY
AND TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT TO OUR WEST ON THURSDAY THEN
GRADUALLY PUSH A FRONT ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1245 PM UPDATE...CURRENT FORECAST FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON
STILL LOOKS GOOD. LOADED RUC13 FOR POPS FOR REST OF THE AFTERNOON.
STILL LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS WILL REMAIN DRY WITH
ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED. REFRESHED HOURLY TEMPS BUT
FORECASTED MAX TEMPS STILL LOOK OK.

A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AS THE LOW
FROM THE GREAT LAKES TRACKS TOWARD WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. SOME
SHOWERS WILL OCCUR ALONG THE FRONT MAINLY ACROSS THE FAR NORTH. AN
EMBEDDED RUMBLE OF THUNDER CAN`T BE RULED OUT. HUMID AIR WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN SOME FOG IN MANY AREAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN ACTIVE AND UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO UNFOLD...

LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFT NORTH EARLY
THURSDAY WITH THE AREA BREAKING INTO A WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR
MASS. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIP IN THE MORNING
HOWEVER IN THE AFTERNOON EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP OVER NW PORTIONS OF THE CWA ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT
AS IT BEGINS TO COLLAPSE BACK TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. MODELS DEPICT
CAPE VALUES OVER NW AREAS GENERALLY AROUND 500 TO 1000 J/KG BUT THERE
IS CONCERN AS SHEAR VALUES LOOK TO BE QUITE STRONG, IN EXCESS OF
40 KNOTS FROM 0-6 KM, WHICH COULD RESULT IN ORGANIZED STRONGER
STORMS DEVELOPING. PWAT VALUES NEAR 1.50 INCHES ALONG A FAIRLY
DEEP WARM CLOUD LAYER AND SLOW STORM MOTION VECTORS SUGGEST HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE THE BIGGEST THREAT BUT STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.
HAVE ADDED ENHANCED WORDING MENTIONING HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE GRIDS
WITH AGAIN, THE BIGGEST CONCERN LOOKING TO BE OVER ROUGHLY THE
NORTHWESTERN THIRD OF THE CWA. SHOWERS/STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT WHILE GENERALLY
WEAKENING WITH TIME. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DEPICT THIS FRONT
GETTING HUNG UP AS IT NEARS THE COAST HEADING INTO FRIDAY. THIS
WILL KEEP PERIODS OF RAIN AND SHOWERS GOING RIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
WITH THE HEAVIEST AND STEADIEST PRECIPITATION SHIFTING TO SOUTHERN
AND EASTERN AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE COME INTO LINE BOTH DEPICTING LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING ALONG THE STALLED FRONT AND PUSHING NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN CONTINUING RAINFALL THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS OF A HALF INCH TO AN INCH
POSSIBLE BY LATE SATURDAY. WITH THE LOW LOOKING TO TRACK EAST OF
THE AREA THIS WILL KEEP THE AREA ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE SYSTEM
WITH NORTHERLY WINDS AND TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO MAKE IT OUT OF
THE UPPER 40S AND LOW 50S FOR SATURDAY. THE PICTURE BECOMES EVEN MORE
COMPLEX FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AS COLD AIR CONTINUES TO BE DRAWN
SOUTH. THIS COULD POTENTIALLY RESULT IN RAIN CHANGING TO SOME WET
SNOW OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS SATURDAY BEFORE PRECIPITATION WINDS
DOWN TO SHOWERS HEADING INTO SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES REMAIN VERY COOL
FOR SUNDAY...ONLY REACHING THE LOW TO MID 50S AT BEST.

EXPECT SLOW IMPROVEMENT HEADING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
LINGERING UPPER TROUGH WILL RESULT IN PERSISTING CLOUDS, COOL
TEMPERATURES, AND THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS MONDAY WITH WARMER DRIER
WEATHER EXPECTED BY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR/IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED IN LOW CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON.
IFR EXPECTED ALL TERMINALS TONIGHT IN LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG.

SHORT TERM:
EXPECT MVFR/IFR PERSISTING THURSDAY IN THE SOUTH DUE TO MARINE
FOG AND STRATUS. NORTHERN SITES SHOULD SEE SOME BRIEF IMPROVEMENT
DURING THE DAY BEFORE SHOWERS AND STORMS BRING A RETURN TO MVFR
AND EVENTUALLY IFR BY LATE DAY. EXPECT PREDOMINATELY MVFR AND IFR
CONDITIONS REGION WIDE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY DUE TO
CONTINUING PERIODS OF RAIN AND SHOWERS. SOME IMPROVEMENT WILL BE
POSSIBLE SUNDAY AS STEADIER PRECIPITATION WINDS DOWN.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE BELOW SCA TODAY AND TONIGHT.
HUMID AIR MOVING IN OVER THE COLDER WATERS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
AREAS OF FOG THROUGH TONIGHT.


SHORT TERM:
WINDS/SEAS BUILD THURSDAY WITH SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY THE
AFTERNOON CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. ALSO EXPECT AREAS OF
FOG DURING THIS PERIOD REDUCING VISIBILITIES ALONG WITH PERIODS OF RAIN
AND SHOWERS. WINDS/SEAS MAY BRIEFLY DIMINISH LATE FRIDAY BEFORE
INCREASING ONCE AGAIN SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTH.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON THURSDAY TO NOON EDT FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...BLOOMER/DUDA
SHORT TERM...FITZSIMMONS
LONG TERM...FITZSIMMONS
AVIATION...BLOOMER/DUDA/FITZSIMMONS
MARINE...BLOOMER/DUDA/FITZSIMMONS

000
FXUS61 KCAR 221409
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1009 AM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS NORTH ACROSS THE REGION TODAY
AND TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT TO OUR WEST ON THURSDAY THEN
GRADUALLY PUSH A FRONT ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
10 AM UPDATE...12Z KCAR RAOB SHOWS DEEP LAYER MOISTURE PROFILE
THIS MORNING. VISIBLE IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUD
ACROSS THE FA. EXPECT CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.
CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY DOES SHOW THE LAST OF THE STEADIER SHOWERS
EXITING THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER INTO NEW BRUNSWICK. MADE
ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS FOR TODAY UTILIZING THE RUC13 WHICH WAS DOING A
FAIRLY GOOD JOB AS OF EARLY THIS MORNING. THUS...ONLY EXPECTING
SCATTERED SHOWERS THE BALANCE OF THE DAY. OTHERWISE...ADJUSTED
CURRENT HOURLY TEMPS AND INTERPOLATED TO EXPECTED MAX TEMPS.

A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AS THE LOW
FROM THE GREAT LAKES TRACKS TOWARD WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. SOME
SHOWERS WILL OCCUR ALONG THE FRONT MAINLY ACROSS THE FAR NORTH. AN
EMBEDDED RUMBLE OF THUNDER CAN`T BE RULED OUT. HUMID AIR WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN SOME FOG IN MANY AREAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN ACTIVE AND UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO UNFOLD...

LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFT NORTH EARLY
THURSDAY WITH THE AREA BREAKING INTO A WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR
MASS. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIP IN THE MORNING
HOWEVER IN THE AFTERNOON EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP OVER NW PORTIONS OF THE CWA ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT
AS IT BEGINS TO COLLAPSE BACK TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. MODELS DEPICT
CAPE VALUES OVER NW AREAS GENERALLY AROUND 500 TO 1000 J/KG BUT THERE
IS CONCERN AS SHEAR VALUES LOOK TO BE QUITE STRONG, IN EXCESS OF
40 KNOTS FROM 0-6 KM, WHICH COULD RESULT IN ORGANIZED STRONGER
STORMS DEVELOPING. PWAT VALUES NEAR 1.50 INCHES ALONG A FAIRLY
DEEP WARM CLOUD LAYER AND SLOW STORM MOTION VECTORS SUGGEST HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE THE BIGGEST THREAT BUT STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.
HAVE ADDED ENHANCED WORDING MENTIONING HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE GRIDS
WITH AGAIN, THE BIGGEST CONCERN LOOKING TO BE OVER ROUGHLY THE
NORTHWESTERN THIRD OF THE CWA. SHOWERS/STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT WHILE GENERALLY
WEAKENING WITH TIME. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DEPICT THIS FRONT
GETTING HUNG UP AS IT NEARS THE COAST HEADING INTO FRIDAY. THIS
WILL KEEP PERIODS OF RAIN AND SHOWERS GOING RIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
WITH THE HEAVIEST AND STEADIEST PRECIPITATION SHIFTING TO SOUTHERN
AND EASTERN AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE COME INTO LINE BOTH DEPICTING LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING ALONG THE STALLED FRONT AND PUSHING NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN CONTINUING RAINFALL THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS OF A HALF INCH TO AN INCH
POSSIBLE BY LATE SATURDAY. WITH THE LOW LOOKING TO TRACK EAST OF
THE AREA THIS WILL KEEP THE AREA ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE SYSTEM
WITH NORTHERLY WINDS AND TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO MAKE IT OUT OF
THE UPPER 40S AND LOW 50S FOR SATURDAY. THE PICTURE BECOMES EVEN MORE
COMPLEX FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AS COLD AIR CONTINUES TO BE DRAWN
SOUTH. THIS COULD POTENTIALLY RESULT IN RAIN CHANGING TO SOME WET
SNOW OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS SATURDAY BEFORE PRECIPITATION WINDS
DOWN TO SHOWERS HEADING INTO SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES REMAIN VERY COOL
FOR SUNDAY...ONLY REACHING THE LOW TO MID 50S AT BEST.

EXPECT SLOW IMPROVEMENT HEADING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
LINGERING UPPER TROUGH WILL RESULT IN PERSISTING CLOUDS, COOL
TEMPERATURES, AND THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS MONDAY WITH WARMER DRIER
WEATHER EXPECTED BY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF
FOG TODAY AND TONIGHT ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS MAY BRIEFLY IMPROVE TO
MVFR AT TIMES ACROSS THE NORTH DURING THE MIDDAY TODAY.


SHORT TERM:
EXPECT MVFR/IFR PERSISTING THURSDAY IN THE SOUTH DUE TO MARINE
FOG AND STRATUS. NORTHERN SITES SHOULD SEE SOME BRIEF IMPROVEMENT
DURING THE DAY BEFORE SHOWERS AND STORMS BRING A RETURN TO MVFR
AND EVENTUALLY IFR BY LATE DAY. EXPECT PREDOMINATELY MVFR AND IFR
CONDITIONS REGION WIDE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY DUE TO
CONTINUING PERIODS OF RAIN AND SHOWERS. SOME IMPROVEMENT WILL BE
POSSIBLE SUNDAY AS STEADIER PRECIPITATION WINDS DOWN.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE BELOW SCA TODAY AND TONIGHT.
HUMID AIR MOVING IN OVER THE COLDER WATERS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
AREAS OF FOG THROUGH TONIGHT.


SHORT TERM:
WINDS/SEAS BUILD THURSDAY WITH SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY THE
AFTERNOON CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. ALSO EXPECT AREAS OF
FOG DURING THIS PERIOD REDUCING VISIBILITIES ALONG WITH PERIODS OF RAIN
AND SHOWERS. WINDS/SEAS MAY BRIEFLY DIMINISH LATE FRIDAY BEFORE
INCREASING ONCE AGAIN SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTH.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON THURSDAY TO NOON EDT FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...BLOOMER/DUDA
SHORT TERM...FITZSIMMONS
LONG TERM...FITZSIMMONS
AVIATION...BLOOMER/DUDA/FITZSIMMONS
MARINE...BLOOMER/DUDA/FITZSIMMONS

000
FXUS61 KGYX 221056 AAB
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
656 AM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED ACROSS NEW HAMPSHIRE AND MAINE
TODAY...LIFTING NORTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL
SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY PUSH OFFSHORE FRIDAY.
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND
FRIDAY NIGHT AND STRENGTHEN IN THE GULF OF MAINE ON SATURDAY,
MOVING INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON SUNDAY, WITH COOLER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. ON MEMORIAL
DAY AND TUESDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL NUDGE THE LOW NORTHWARD WITH
SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
.UPDATE...
NOT MUCH TO CHANGE FOR THIS UPDATE AS POPS ARE ON TRACK. AREA OF
RAIN NOW MOVING INTO EASTERN MAINE AND OFFSHORE. HRRR HAS HAD A
GOOD HANDLE ON THE EVOLUTION OF THIS RAIN EVENT. WE SHOULD HAVE A
BREAK THROUGH THE MORNING BEFORE RAIN RETURNS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN IS NOW MOVING OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
WITH A RAIN FREE AREA IMMEDIATELY BEHIND IT. FARTHER SOUTH
CONVECTION IS HEAVIER AND STILL MOVING ACROSS PORTSMOUTH WITH
MORE TO THE SOUTH AND WEST. WHEN THE RAIN DOES SUBSIDE PATCHY
DENSE FOG MAY FORM LATER THIS MORNING. MOST THUNDER IS TO OUR
SOUTH HOWEVER HAVE KEPT ISOLATED STRIKES IN THE FORECAST THIS
MORNING. A WARM FRONT IS THE FOCUS OF THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION
AND STRETCHES THROUGH SOUTHERN NY STATE AND OVER LONG ISLAND
SOUND.

MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WITH THIS BATCH WILL EXIT BY LATE
MORNING. WE WILL ONLY SEE A FEW HOURS MOSTLY FREE OF PRECIPITATION
AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG IT. IN ADDITION DIURNAL HEATING AND
MUCAPES AOA 1000 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON WILL TRIGGER THUNDERSTORMS.
THAT SAID...SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL DEPEND ON THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE
WARM FRONT. READINGS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S NEAR JACKMAN AND
WATERVILLE TO 70S OVER MUCH OF NH AND FAR WESTERN MAINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
RAIN CONTINUES TONIGHT INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE WARM FRONT
WILL LIFT INTO CANADA BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON PLACING THE ENTIRETY
OF NH AND WESTERN MAINE IN THE WARM SECTOR. A NNE TO SSW ORIENTED
COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY THURSDAY
HELPING TO GENERATE MODERATE RAIN AND ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS.
AFTER WARM OVERNIGHT LOWS...ALMOST THE ENTIRE REGION SHOULD WARM
INTO THE 70S THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT BUT
WILL BE SLOWED BY A STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW FORECAST TO RIDE
NORTH UP THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. EXPECTEDLY, THE FORECAST MODELS ARE BICKERING ABOUT THE
STRENGTH OF THIS LOW, WHICH WILL ULTIMATELY DETERMINE HOW RAPIDLY
THE WET WEATHER WILL EXIT EASTERN NEW ENGLAND. THE GFS CONTINUES
TO BE BY FAR THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS LOW -- CLOSING OFF A
1001 HPA LOW IN THE BAY OF FUNDY SATURDAY NIGHT. WPC HAS CONTINUED
TO FAVOR THE CONSISTENT AND WEAKER ECMWF SOLUTION, AND WE`VE
FOLLOWED THAT THINKING AS WELL HERE. THIS TRANSLATES TO DRYING OUT
ON SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, WITH DRY WEATHER CONTINUING INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

AGREEMENT DOES, HOWEVER, COME IN THE UNSEASONABLY COOL UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEASTERN STATES THROUGH ABOUT SUNDAY
BEFORE FILLING AND MOVING OFFSHORE EARLY NEXT WEEK. MAX
TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL RUN SOME 10-15F BELOW
NORMAL FOR LATE MAY -- MAKING IT FEEL MORE LIKE PATRIOT`S DAY THAN
MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. EVENTUALLY BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK A
RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM...LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS TODAY IN FOG/DRIZZLE/SHOWERS/
STRATUS. SOME IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR IN BETWEEN PERIODS OF RAIN.
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT.

LONG TERM...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL PERSIST
THROUGH FRIDAY AND GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO VFR CLEAR CONDITIONS BY
SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...A SMALL CRAFT HAS BEEN ISSUED BEGINNING THURSDAY AT
NOON AND LASTING THROUGH FRIDAY. OTHERWISE FOG...DRIZZLE...AND
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE VISIBILITIES.

LONG TERM...WITH THE FRONT/SURFACE LOW IN THE GULF OF MAINE INTO
THE WEEKEND, EXPECT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS IN THE COASTAL
WATERS TO EXTEND AT LEAST INTO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO ISSUES ANTICIPATED THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK DUE TO WET
CONDITIONS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON THURSDAY TO NOON EDT FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HANES
LONG TERM...STJEAN

000
FXUS61 KCAR 220941
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
541 AM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS NORTH ACROSS THE REGION TODAY
AND TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT TO OUR WEST ON THURSDAY THEN
GRADUALLY PUSH A FRONT ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
6 AM UPDATE...EXPANDED THE AREA OF RAIN ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN AREAS WHERE A SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY BRINGING A
CONCENTRATION OF RAINFALL. EXPECT RAIN TO TAPER OFF TO SHOWERS
THIS AFTERNOON. MORE SHOWERS LIKELY TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTH ACROSS THE STATE.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS JUST TO OUR SOUTH EARLY THIS MORNING AS
A LARGE AND MOIST STORM SYSTEM SLOWLY LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES. WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVING ALONG THE FRONT WILL BRING AN
AREA OF RAIN AND HEAVIER SHOWERS DOWNEAST EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
A PERIOD OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN POSSIBLE FURTHER NORTH DURING
MID MORNING. THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY AND
HUMID WITH SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AS THE LOW FROM THE GREAT LAKES TRACKS
TOWARD WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. SOME SHOWERS WILL OCCUR ALONG THE
FRONT MAINLY ACROSS THE FAR NORTH. AN EMBEDDED RUMBLE OF THUNDER
CAN`T BE RULED OUT. HUMID AIR WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SOME FOG IN
MANY AREAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN ACTIVE AND UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO UNFOLD...

LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFT NORTH EARLY
THURSDAY WITH THE AREA BREAKING INTO A WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR
MASS. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIP IN THE MORNING
HOWEVER IN THE AFTERNOON EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP OVER NW PORTIONS OF THE CWA ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT
AS IT BEGINS TO COLLAPSE BACK TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. MODELS DEPICT
CAPE VALUES OVER NW AREAS GENERALLY AROUND 500 TO 1000 J/KG BUT THERE
IS CONCERN AS SHEAR VALUES LOOK TO BE QUITE STRONG, IN EXCESS OF
40 KNOTS FROM 0-6 KM, WHICH COULD RESULT IN ORGANIZED STRONGER
STORMS DEVELOPING. PWAT VALUES NEAR 1.50 INCHES ALONG A FAIRLY
DEEP WARM CLOUD LAYER AND SLOW STORM MOTION VECTORS SUGGEST HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE THE BIGGEST THREAT BUT STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.
HAVE ADDED ENHANCED WORDING MENTIONING HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE GRIDS
WITH AGAIN, THE BIGGEST CONCERN LOOKING TO BE OVER ROUGHLY THE
NORTHWESTERN THIRD OF THE CWA. SHOWERS/STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT WHILE GENERALLY
WEAKENING WITH TIME. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DEPICT THIS FRONT
GETTING HUNG UP AS IT NEARS THE COAST HEADING INTO FRIDAY. THIS
WILL KEEP PERIODS OF RAIN AND SHOWERS GOING RIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
WITH THE HEAVIEST AND STEADIEST PRECIPITATION SHIFTING TO SOUTHERN
AND EASTERN AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE COME INTO LINE BOTH DEPICTING LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING ALONG THE STALLED FRONT AND PUSHING NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN CONTINUING RAINFALL THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS OF A HALF INCH TO AN INCH
POSSIBLE BY LATE SATURDAY. WITH THE LOW LOOKING TO TRACK EAST OF
THE AREA THIS WILL KEEP THE AREA ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE SYSTEM
WITH NORTHERLY WINDS AND TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO MAKE IT OUT OF
THE UPPER 40S AND LOW 50S FOR SATURDAY. THE PICTURE BECOMES EVEN MORE
COMPLEX FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AS COLD AIR CONTINUES TO BE DRAWN
SOUTH. THIS COULD POTENTIALLY RESULT IN RAIN CHANGING TO SOME WET
SNOW OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS SATURDAY BEFORE PRECIPITATION WINDS
DOWN TO SHOWERS HEADING INTO SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES REMAIN VERY COOL
FOR SUNDAY...ONLY REACHING THE LOW TO MID 50S AT BEST.

EXPECT SLOW IMPROVEMENT HEADING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
LINGERING UPPER TROUGH WILL RESULT IN PERSISTING CLOUDS, COOL
TEMPERATURES, AND THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS MONDAY WITH WARMER DRIER
WEATHER EXPECTED BY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF
FOG TODAY AND TONIGHT ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS MAY BRIEFLY IMPROVE TO
MVFR AT TIMES ACROSS THE NORTH DURING THE MIDDAY TODAY.


SHORT TERM:
EXPECT MVFIR/IFR PERSISTING THURSDAY IN THE SOUTH DUE TO MARINE
FOG AND STRATUS. NORTHERN SITES SHOULD SEE SOME BRIEF IMPROVEMENT
DURING THE DAY BEFORE SHOWERS AND STORMS BRING A RETURN TO MVFR
AND EVENTUALLY IFR BY LATE DAY. EXPECT PREDOMINATELY MVFR AND IFR
CONDITIONS REGION WIDE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY DUE TO
CONTINUING PERIODS OF RAIN AND SHOWERS. SOME IMPROVEMENT WILL BE
POSSIBLE SUNDAY AS STEADIER PRECIPITATION WINDS DOWN.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE BELOW SCA TODAY AND TONIGHT.
HUMID AIR MOVING IN OVER THE COLDER WATERS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
AREAS OF FOG THROUGH TONIGHT.


SHORT TERM:
WINDS/SEAS BUILD THURSDAY WITH SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY THE
AFTERNOON CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. ALSO EXPECT AREAS OF
FOG DURING THIS PERIOD REDUCING VISIBILITIES ALONG WITH PERIODS OF RAIN
AND SHOWERS. WINDS/SEAS MAY BRIEFLY DIMINISH LATE FRIDAY BEFORE
INCREASING ONCE AGAIN SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTH.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON THURSDAY TO NOON EDT FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...BLOOMER
SHORT TERM...FITZSIMMONS
LONG TERM...FITZSIMMONS
AVIATION...BLOOMER/FITZSIMMONS
MARINE...BLOOMER/FITZSIMMONS

000
FXUS61 KGYX 220810
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
410 AM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED ACROSS NEW HAMPSHIRE AND MAINE
TODAY...LIFTING NORTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL
SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY PUSH OFFSHORE FRIDAY.
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND
FRIDAY NIGHT AND STRENGTHEN IN THE GULF OF MAINE ON SATURDAY,
MOVING INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON SUNDAY, WITH COOLER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. ON MEMORIAL
DAY AND TUESDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL NUDGE THE LOW NORTHWARD WITH
SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
.UPDATE...
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN IS NOW MOVING OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
WITH A RAIN FREE AREA IMMEDIATELY BEHIND IT. FARTHER SOUTH
CONVECTION IS HEAVIER AND STILL MOVING ACROSS PORTSMOUTH WITH
MORE TO THE SOUTH AND WEST. WHEN THE RAIN DOES SUBSIDE PATCHY
DENSE FOG MAY FORM LATER THIS MORNING. MOST THUNDER IS TO OUR
SOUTH HOWEVER HAVE KEPT ISOLATED STRIKES IN THE FORECAST THIS
MORNING. A WARM FRONT IS THE FOCUS OF THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION
AND STRETCHES THROUGH SOUTHERN NY STATE AND OVER LONG ISLAND
SOUND.

MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WITH THIS BATCH WILL EXIT BY LATE
MORNING. WE WILL ONLY SEE A FEW HOURS MOSTLY FREE OF PRECIPITATION
AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG IT. IN ADDITION DIURNAL HEATING AND
MUCAPES AOA 1000 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON WILL TRIGGER THUNDERSTORMS.
THAT SAID...SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL DEPEND ON THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE
WARM FRONT. READINGS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S NEAR JACKMAN AND
WATERVILLE TO 70S OVER MUCH OF NH AND FAR WESTERN MAINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
RAIN CONTINUES TONIGHT INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE WARM FRONT
WILL LIFT INTO CANADA BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON PLACING THE ENTIRETY
OF NH AND WESTERN MAINE IN THE WARM SECTOR. A NNE TO SSW ORIENTED
COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY THURSDAY
HELPING TO GENERATE MODERATE RAIN AND ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS.
AFTER WARM OVERNIGHT LOWS...ALMOST THE ENTIRE REGION SHOULD WARM
INTO THE 70S THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT BUT
WILL BE SLOWED BY A STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW FORECAST TO RIDE
NORTH UP THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. EXPECTEDLY, THE FORECAST MODELS ARE BICKERING ABOUT THE
STRENGTH OF THIS LOW, WHICH WILL ULTIMATELY DETERMINE HOW RAPIDLY
THE WET WEATHER WILL EXIT EASTERN NEW ENGLAND. THE GFS CONTINUES
TO BE BY FAR THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS LOW -- CLOSING OFF A
1001 HPA LOW IN THE BAY OF FUNDY SATURDAY NIGHT. WPC HAS CONTINUED
TO FAVOR THE CONSISTENT AND WEAKER ECMWF SOLUTION, AND WE`VE
FOLLOWED THAT THINKING AS WELL HERE. THIS TRANSLATES TO DRYING OUT
ON SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, WITH DRY WEATHER CONTINUING INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

AGREEMENT DOES, HOWEVER, COME IN THE UNSEASONABLY COOL UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEASTERN STATES THROUGH ABOUT SUNDAY
BEFORE FILLING AND MOVING OFFSHORE EARLY NEXT WEEK. MAX
TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL RUN SOME 10-15F BELOW
NORMAL FOR LATE MAY -- MAKING IT FEEL MORE LIKE PATRIOT`S DAY THAN
MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. EVENTUALLY BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK A
RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN.


&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM...LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS TODAY IN FOG/DRIZZLE/SHOWERS/
STRATUS. SOME IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR IN BETWEEN PERIODS OF RAIN.
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT.

LONG TERM...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL PERSIST
THROUGH FRIDAY AND GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO VFR CLEAR CONDITIONS BY
SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...A SMALL CRAFT HAS BEEN ISSUED BEGINNING THURSDAY AT
NOON AND LASTING THROUGH FRIDAY. OTHERWISE FOG...DRIZZLE...AND
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE VISIBILITIES.

LONG TERM...WITH THE FRONT/SURFACE LOW IN THE GULF OF MAINE INTO
THE WEEKEND, EXPECT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS IN THE COASTAL
WATERS TO EXTEND AT LEAST INTO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO ISSUES ANTICIPATED THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK DUE TO WET
CONDITIONS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON THURSDAY TO NOON EDT FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HANES
LONG TERM...STJEAN

000
FXUS61 KCAR 220804
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
404 AM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS NORTH ACROSS THE REGION TODAY
AND TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT TO OUR WEST ON THURSDAY THEN
GRADUALLY PUSH A FRONT ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS JUST TO OUR SOUTH EARLY THIS MORNING AS
A LARGE AND MOIST STORM SYSTEM SLOWLY LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES. WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVING ALONG THE FRONT WILL BRING AN
AREA OF RAIN AND HEAVIER SHOWERS DOWNEAST EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
A PERIOD OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN POSSIBLE FURTHER NORTH DURING
MID MORNING. THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY AND
HUMID WITH SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AS THE LOW FROM THE GREAT LAKES TRACKS
TOWARD WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. SOME SHOWERS WILL OCCUR ALONG THE
FRONT MAINLY ACROSS THE FAR NORTH. AN EMBEDDED RUMBLE OF THUNDER
CAN`T BE RULED OUT. HUMID AIR WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SOME FOG IN
MANY AREAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

AN ACTIVE AND UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO UNFOLD...

LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFT NORTH EARLY
THURSDAY WITH THE AREA BREAKING INTO A WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR
MASS. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIP IN THE MORNING
HOWEVER IN THE AFTERNOON EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP OVER NW PORTIONS OF THE CWA ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT
AS IT BEGINS TO COLLAPSE BACK TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. MODELS DEPICT
CAPE VALUES OVER NW AREAS GENERALLY AROUND 500 TO 1000 J/KG BUT THERE
IS CONCERN AS SHEAR VALUES LOOK TO BE QUITE STRONG, IN EXCESS OF
40 KNOTS FROM 0-6 KM, WHICH COULD RESULT IN ORGANIZED STRONGER
STORMS DEVELOPING. PWAT VALUES NEAR 1.50 INCHES ALONG A FAIRLY
DEEP WARM CLOUD LAYER AND SLOW STORM MOTION VECTORS SUGGEST HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE THE BIGGEST THREAT BUT STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.
HAVE ADDED ENHANCED WORDING MENTIONING HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE GRIDS
WITH AGAIN, THE BIGGEST CONCERN LOOKING TO BE OVER ROUGHLY THE
NORTHWESTERN THIRD OF THE CWA. SHOWERS/STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT WHILE GENERALLY
WEAKENING WITH TIME. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DEPICT THIS FRONT
GETTING HUNG UP AS IT NEARS THE COAST HEADING INTO FRIDAY. THIS
WILL KEEP PERIODS OF RAIN AND SHOWERS GOING RIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
WITH THE HEAVIEST AND STEADIEST PRECIPITATION SHIFTING TO SOUTHERN
AND EASTERN AREAS.
&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE COME INTO LINE BOTH DEPICTING LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING ALONG THE STALLED FRONT AND PUSHING NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN CONTINUING RAINFALL THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS OF A HALF INCH TO AN INCH
POSSIBLE BY LATE SATURDAY. WITH THE LOW LOOKING TO TRACK EAST OF
THE AREA THIS WILL KEEP THE AREA ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE SYSTEM
WITH NORTHERLY WINDS AND TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO MAKE IT OUT OF
THE UPPER 40S AND LOW 50S FOR SATURDAY. THE PICTURE BECOMES EVEN MORE
COMPLEX FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AS COLD AIR CONTINUES TO BE DRAWN
SOUTH. THIS COULD POTENTIALLY RESULT IN RAIN CHANGING TO SOME WET
SNOW OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS SATURDAY BEFORE PRECIPITATION WINDS
DOWN TO SHOWERS HEADING INTO SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES REMAIN VERY COOL
FOR SUNDAY...ONLY REACHING THE LOW TO MID 50S AT BEST.

EXPECT SLOW IMPROVEMENT HEADING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
LINGERING UPPER TROUGH WILL RESULT IN PERSISTING CLOUDS, COOL
TEMPERATURES, AND THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS MONDAY WITH WARMER DRIER
WEATHER EXPECTED BY TUESDAY.
&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF
FOG TODAY AND TONIGHT ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS MAY BRIEFLY IMPROVE TO
MVFR AT TIMES ACROSS THE NORTH DURING THE MIDDAY TODAY.


SHORT TERM:
EXPECT MVFIR/IFR PERSISTING THURSDAY IN THE SOUTH DUE TO MARINE
FOG AND STRATUS. NORTHERN SITES SHOULD SEE SOME BRIEF IMPROVEMENT
DURING THE DAY BEFORE SHOWERS AND STORMS BRING A RETURN TO MVFR
AND EVENTUALLY IFR BY LATE DAY. EXPECT PREDOMINATELY MVFR AND IFR
CONDITIONS REGION WIDE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY DUE TO
CONTINUING PERIODS OF RAIN AND SHOWERS. SOME IMPROVEMENT WILL BE
POSSIBLE SUNDAY AS STEADIER PRECIPITATION WINDS DOWN.


&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE BELOW SCA TODAY AND TONIGHT.
HUMID AIR MOVING IN OVER THE COLDER WATERS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
AREAS OF FOG THROUGH TONIGHT.


SHORT TERM:
WINDS/SEAS BUILD THURSDAY WITH SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY THE
AFTERNOON CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. ALSO EXPECT AREAS OF
FOG DURING THIS PERIOD REDUCING VISIBILITIES ALONG WITH PERIODS OF RAIN
AND SHOWERS. WINDS/SEAS MAY BRIEFLY DIMINISH LATE FRIDAY BEFORE
INCREASING ONCE AGAIN SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTH.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON THURSDAY TO NOON EDT FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...BLOOMER
SHORT TERM...FITZSIMMONS
LONG TERM...FITZSIMMONS
AVIATION...BLOOMER/FITZSIMMONS
MARINE...BLOOMER/FITZSIMMONS

000
FXUS61 KGYX 220538 AAA
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
138 AM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND
SOUTHWEST MAINE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...FINALLY LIFTING NORTH OF THE
REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST THURSDAY AND WILL GRADUALLY PUSH OFFSHORE LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ON THE FRONT OVER THE
GULF OF MAINE FRIDAY NIGHT AND WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE
MARITIMES ON SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT OFF TO
THE NORTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
.UPDATE...
FIRST AREA OF HEAVY RAIN NOW MOVING OFFSHORE FROM PORTLAND TO THE
MIDCOAST WITH A RAIN FREE AREA IMMEDIATELY BEHIND IT. FARTHER
SOUTH CONVECTION STILL MOVING ACROSS PORTSMOUTH WITH MORE TO THE
SOUTH AND WEST. RAIN FREE AREAS MAY ALLOW FOG TO FORM BEFORE THE
REST OF THE PRECIPITATION ARRIVES IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. MOST
THUNDER IS TO OUR SOUTH HOWEVER HAVE KEPT ISOLATED STRIKES IN THE
FORECAST. MAINLY ADJUSTED RAIN CHANCES TO REFLECT BAND MOVING OFF
THE COAST AND MORE RAIN TO OUR WEST.

&&

0830 UPDATE...LINE OF SHOWERS ENTERING VT HAS INCREASED IN FORWARD
SPEED DURING THE PAST HOUR AND SHOULD REACH WESTERN NH BY 10 PM.
AM UPDATING FORECAST PRODUCTS TO ADD THUNDER EARLIER IN NH AND
WESTERN MAINE ZONES. THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER IS MINIMAL DUE TO
COOL STABLE LAYER NEAR SURFACE.

730 UPDATE...
JUST UPDATED GRIDS TO TWEAK TEMPS/DEWPTS TO MOST RECENT OBS. COLD
FRONT HAS PUSHED WESTWARD THROUGH NEW HAMPSHIRE. CONVECTION THAT
DEVELOPED ALONG THE CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY HAS BEEN FALLING
APART AS IT MOVES OVER COLDER AIR. SHOWERS OVER VT HAVE ALSO BEEN
WEAKENING AS THEY MOVE EAST...SO THREAT OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NH THIS EVENING HAS BEEN DIMINISHING. MUCH
LARGER AREA OF CONVECTION OVER WESTERN NY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH SFC TEMPS WILL BE COOL...SHOWERS AND A FEW
TSTMS ARE EXPECTED AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH DUE TO ELEVATED
INSTABILITY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WARM FRONT CURRENTLY STALLED ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND WESTERNMOST NEW
HAMPSHIRE AS OF 245 PM. TEMPERATURES SOUTH OF THE FRONT HAVE RISEN
INTO THE 70S AND 80S. MEANWHILE EVERYONE ELSE ACROSS THE CWA
REMAIN NORTH OF THE FRONT AND SUBSEQUENTLY IN A MUCH COOLER
AIRMASS WITH CLOUDS AND DRIZZLE/SHOWERS.

THE INCREASED SUNSHINE AND WARM TEMPS AS WELL AS RELATIVELY HIGH
DEWPOINTS IN SWRN NH HAVE ALLOWED FOR MODERATE INSTABILITY TO
DEVELOP THERE. THIS COMBINED WITH AMPLE WIND SHEAR MAY ALLOW FOR A
FEW STRONG STORMS IF DEEP MOIST CONVECTION WERE TO INITIATE. AS OF
RIGHT NOW...IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE OF INITIATION WILL BE
OVER MASSACHUSETTS...BUT IT/S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ONE OR TWO
STORMS DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN NH THROUGH ABOUT 5 OR 6 PM.
THEREAFTER...A MUCH MORE STABLE AIRMASS WILL ARRIVE FROM THE
NORTHEAST AND SUBSEQUENTLY SQUASH ANY SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY.

TO THE NORTH...OCCASIONAL DRIZZLE...FOG...AND SHOWERS WILL PERSIST
INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

LATER TONIGHT...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
AND INCREASE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA...MAINLY
ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE THE BEST FORCING FOR ASCENT IS EXPECTED TO
OCCUR. SUFFICIENT ELEVATED INSTABILITY FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD BE PRESENT AS WELL...SO MADE SURE THEY WERE INCLUDED IN THE
FORECAST FOR ALL ZONES DESPITE THE COOL STABLE LOW LEVEL
CONDITIONS. LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS MAY OCCUR...BUT SEVERE WEATHER
IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
THE WARM FRONT WILL TRY TO MAKE A PUSH NORTHWARD ONCE AGAIN ON
WEDNESDAY AND LIKELY SUCCEED IN DOING SO AS FAR NORTH AS NORTHERN
NH TO JUST SOUTH OF PORTLAND. TEMPS WILL WARM APPRECIABLY TO THE
SOUTH OF THE FRONT...AT LEAST WELL INTO THE 70S. HOWEVER...AT THE
IMMEDIATE COAST NORTHWARD TO CENTRAL MAINE THE WARM FRONT PROBABLY
WON/T MAKE IT. IT WILL THEREFORE BE COOLER IN THOSE AREAS. AS FAR
AS PRECIPITATION CHANCES GO ON WEDNESDAY...THE SHOWERS/STORMS WITH
THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH TONIGHT SHOULD END EARLY ON.
THE BULK OF THE MORNING MAY BE MAINLY DRY. THEREAFTER...THE
HEATING OF THE DAY WILL LIKELY PROMOTE ADDITIONAL SCT SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...ALTHOUGH FORCING FOR ASCENT IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE ALL THAT ROBUST.

SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTINUE WED NIGHT AS WARM FRONT
TRIES TO LIFT THROUGH.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON THURSDAY
AS DEEP UPPER TROUGH SWINGS IN FROM THE WEST. DAY MAY START DRY FOR
MOST AREAS BUT WILL SEE INCREASING POPS IN NORTHWEST ZONES DURING
THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT NEARS AND DAYTIME
HEATING DESTABILIZES THE AIR AHEAD OF IT. EXPECT ENOUGH INSTABILITY
TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AREA FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EXCEPT FOR MID COAST MAINE WHERE AN ONSHORE FLOW
WILL LIMIT CAPES. BEST CHANCES OF PRECIP WILL BE IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
CONNECTICUT VALLEY. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE LIMITED BY CLOUD COVER BUT
MOST AREAS AWAY FROM THE COAST WILL RANGE THROUGH THE 70S TO NEAR
80.

THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
KEEPING SHOWERS AND A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD. SEVERAL SURGES OF ENERGY DIVING INTO APPROACHING
UPPER TROUGH WILL COMPLICATE THE FORECAST FRIDAY AND BEYOND. AS
USUAL MODELS HAVING DIFFICULTY WITH TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THESE
FEATURES BUT BOTTOM LINE APPEARS TO HAND THE NORTHEAST ANOTHER
LINGERING CLOSED LOW PUTTING A DAMPER ON WEATHER OVER THE NORTHEAST
EXTENDING INTO THE WEEKEND.

IF THE 12Z GFS VERIFIES...COULD BE A BLUSTERY...COLD AND DAMP WEEKEND.
FOR NOW...LEANING MORE TOWARD THE OPTIMISTIC 00Z ECMWF WHICH LIFTS
THE UPPER LOW OUT A LITTLE QUICKER. THIS WOULD BRING LINGERING
SHOWERS TO AN END BY SATURDAY EVENING WITH IMPROVING BUT CHILLY
CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

LOOKING FOR FAIR WEATHER TO CONTINUE ON MONDAY ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY
MODERATING TEMPS AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE
WEST.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM...IFR OR LOWER TONIGHT IN FOG/DRIZZLE/SHOWERS/LOW
CLOUDS. SOME IMPROVEMENT FOR WEDNESDAY AS WARM FRONT TRIES TO LIFT
NORTHWARD. LOW CONDITIONS LIKELY TO RETURN WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...VFR THURSDAY WITH MVFR/IFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING
THURSDAY NIGHT AND PERSISTING THROUGH SATURDAY. BECOMING VFR
SATURDAY NIGHT. VFR SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...NO FLAGS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...BUT FOG
DRIZZLE AND SHOWERS EXPECTED TO SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE VSBYS.

LONG TERM...SCA`S LIKELY THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO PROBLEMS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HANES

000
FXUS61 KCAR 220408
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1208 AM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN ALONG THE SOUTHERN PART OF OUR
REGION THROUGH MID WEEK. SMALL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. A LARGER STORM SYSTEM
FROM THE MIDWEST WILL TRACK TO OUR WEST ON THURSDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
MIDNIGHT UPDATE...EXPECT SOME RAIN TO SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA AFTER
CONVECTION TO OUR SOUTH DISSIPATES. FOCUS OF RAIN WILL BE ALONG
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH. LIGHTER RAIN EXPECTED NORTH EARLY
THIS MORNING WITH AFTERNOON JUST REMAINING CLOUDY SO MODIFIED FCST
TO MENTION LIGHT RAIN IN MORNING AND CLOUDY IN AFTERNOON.

THERE MAY BE HEAVIER DOWNPOURS AS MORE CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS MOVE INTO
E CNTRL AND DOWNEAST PTNS OF THE FA WITH A WEAK ELEVATED CAPE
ENVIRONMENT. THIS IDEA IS SUPPORTED BY CURRENT LGTNG STRIKES ON
THE S SIDE OF THE COMPLEX AS IT MOVES E THRU ERN ONT TOWARD SW
QB...SO WE DID INCLUDE ISOLD TSTMS VERY LATE TNGT OVR CNTRL AND
DOWNEAST AREAS. WITH THIS IN MIND...SOME LOCATIONS OVR THESE PTNS
OF THE FA COULD RECEIVE ARND AN INCH OR EVEN A LITTLE MORE OF
TOTAL QPF...WITH ARND A HLF INCH OR SO OVR THE N...ENOUGH TO
JUSTIFY NEAR 100 PERCENT POPS FOR VIRTUALLY ALL OF THE FA BY WED
MORN. LASTLY...WITH LOW TO MID LVL WARM ADVCN WHICH WILL INCLUDE A
MARINE COMPONENT OF AIRFLOW WILL RESULT IN PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE N
VERY LATE TNGT AND AREAS OF FOG S WHICH WILL LIKELY CARRY OVER
WELL INTO THE MORN HRS.

MOST OF THE STEADY RN SHOULD TAPER OFF TO LIGHTER SHWRS WED AFTN
AS THE S/WV MOVES E OF THE FA. LOW TEMPS WILL BE MILD AGAIN AS
CLDNSS...RNFL AND FOG LATE TNGT KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING MUCH.
HI TEMPS WED WILL BE MUCH SUPPRESSED DUE TO LLVL DAMMING OF RAIN
COOLED AIR HANGING IN ACROSS THE FA THRU THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROF ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD WILL SLOWLY MIGRATE EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND THROUGH QUEBEC...PASSING TO
NORTH OF THE STATE LATE THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATER THURSDAY. THE FRONT
WILL SLOW DOWN AS IT BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW WITH A BROAD
SOUTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE.

A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL EXIST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTH ACROSS THE REGION. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL INCREASE DURING
THE DAY THURSDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THERE WILL ALSO BE THE CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THURSDAY AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN
AREAS WHERE SB CAPES INCREASE TO 500-1000 J/KG PER GFS. THERE IS
SOME 0-6KM SHEAR AS WELL SO POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR SOME ORGANIZED
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. OF COURSE...THIS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON JUST
HOW MUCH INSTABILITY DEVELOPS IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. THINKING WE
WILL SOME BREAKS OF SUNSHINE ACROSS WESTERN AREAS AWAY FROM THE
COAST AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES SOMEWHAT MORE SOUTHWEST. FOR
NOW...HAVE CONFINED MENTION OF THUNDER TO WESTERN AND NORTHERN
AREAS THURSDAY WITH MARINE INFLUENCE KEEPING THINGS MORE STABLE
DOWNEAST. WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR BREAKS ON THURSDAY AND 925 MB
TEMPERATURES AROUND +17C HAVE HAVE LEANED WITH WARMER MAV NOS FOR
MAXS THURSDAY.

SHOWERY TYPE WEATHER AND PERHAPS SOME LINGERING THUNDER CAN BE
EXPECTED INTO THURSDAY EVENING BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO A MORE STEADY
RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING TO OUR SOUTH ALONG THE SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A
STEAD RAIN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
NORTHEAST ALONG THE NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE
AREA. LOOK LIKE MOST AREAS WILL SEE ANYWHERE FROM A QUARTER TO HALF
AN INCH OF RAINFALL ON FRIDAY. BLENDED SREF/GFS FOR RAINFALL
AMOUNTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DAMP AND UNSETTLED WEATHER PTRN LOOKS TO CONT INTO THE LONGER
TERM... LONG RANGE GUIDANCE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT W/ THE OPNL 12Z
GFS AND 00Z ECMWF SHOWING A NRLY STALLED FRONTAL BNDRY OVR EXTRA
SERN MAINE AT 00Z SAT. BOTH MODELS ADVERTISE BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRES FROM S OF SRN NEW ENGLAND UP INTO NB. BY 12Z SAT THE GFS HAS
DVLP A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT CLOSED SFC LOW PRES SYSTEM NR CAPE COD
WHILE THE ECMWF IS FURTHER NEWRD W/ THIS LOW OVR WRN NS... BY 00Z
SUN...THE GFS HAS MOVD THIS DEEPENING SYSTEM NEWRD INTO SERN MAINE
WHILE THE ECMWF HAS THE SYSTEM OVR XTRM NERN NB. THEREAFTER THE
GFS WRAPS THIS LOW INTO NRN MAINE WHILE THE ECMWF LIFTS IT NEWRD
TO THE MOUTH OF THE ST LAWRENCE BY 12Z SUN. DESPITE THE 12
TIMING DIFFS...BOTH MODELS SUGGEST A POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT QPF
EVENT FOR THE PD LATER FRI NGT INTO SAT NGT W/ CHILLY AND
UNSETTLED CONDS PERSISTING THRU SUN.

STILL BRISK AND CHILLY INTO MON W/ A CONTG CHC OF SOME SHOWERS
SPCLY N AND W THEN APPEARS SOME DRIER AND MILDER AIR MAY FINALLY
WORK INTO THE FA BY TUE. ATTM...NOT THE BEST LOOKING MEMORIAL DAY
WEEKEND WX WISE FOR OUR REGION...

WILL CARRY LIKELY TO CAT POPS FRI NGT INTO SAT NGT W/ THE HIGHEST
POPS E AND SE. PLAYED TEMPS ON THE COOL SIDE USING A CONS ALL
BLEND...

&&

.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR NRN TAF SITES THIS EVENING WHILE DOWNEAST SITES
HOLD IFR OR IMPROVE TO MVFR. ALL SITES THEN LOWERING TO IFR TO
LIFR LATE TNGT INTO ERLY WED MORN WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW CLDNSS
SHWRS AND PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG. LIFR CONDITIONS WED MORN ONLY
IMPROVE TO IFR WED AFTN AS STEADY MORN RN AND FOG TAPERS TO AFTN
SHWRS.

SHORT TERM: MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
INTO THURSDAY MORNING IN LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR/VFR LATER THURSDAY MORNING INTO THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION
LATER THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND COULD EVEN SEE SOME SCT TSRA NORTHERN
TERMINALS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MVFR/IFR CAN BE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY
IN STEADY RAIN.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HDLNS XPCTD OVRNGT THRU WED. WV HTS WILL HAVE SOME
SWELL COMPONENT OVR THE OUTER WATERS...REACHING UP TO 4 FT AT TMS.
WE USED A BLEND OF WW3 AND SWAN GFS...SMOOTHED 10 TMS OVR IN THE
VCNTY OF THE COAST TO LOWER WV HTS FOR THE INNER BAY/HARBOR MZ.

SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WINDS/SEAS WILL INCREASE THURSDAY AND CONTINUE
TO INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY. AREAS OF FOG WILL LIKELY REDUCE VISIBILITY TO 1 TO 3 NM
ESPECIALLY THURSDAY NIGHT AND ON FRIDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...BLOOMER

000
FXUS61 KCAR 220252
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1052 PM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN ALONG THE SOUTHERN PART OF OUR
REGION THROUGH MID WEEK. SMALL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. A LARGER STORM SYSTEM
FROM THE MIDWEST WILL TRACK TO OUR WEST ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
1050 PM UPDATE: ADJUSTED THE TEMPERATURES AND SKY GRIDS TO MATCH
UP W/THE LATEST CONDITIONS. USED THE REGIONAL GEM DOING WELL W/THE
CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE CWA. RAFL MOVING INTO WESTERN AREAS ATTM
AND LATEST POPS LOOK GOOD.

THERE MAY BE HEAVIER DOWNPOURS AS MORE CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS MOVE INTO
E CNTRL AND DOWNEAST PTNS OF THE FA WITH A WEAK ELEVATED CAPE
ENVIRONMENT. THIS IDEA IS SUPPORTED BY CURRENT LGTNG STRIKES ON
THE S SIDE OF THE COMPLEX AS IT MOVES E THRU ERN ONT TOWARD SW
QB...SO WE DID INCLUDE ISOLD TSTMS VERY LATE TNGT OVR CNTRL AND
DOWNEAST AREAS. WITH THIS IN MIND...SOME LOCATIONS OVR THESE PTNS
OF THE FA COULD RECEIVE ARND AN INCH OR EVEN A LITTLE MORE OF
TOTAL QPF...WITH ARND A HLF INCH OR SO OVR THE N...ENOUGH TO
JUSTIFY NEAR 100 PERCENT POPS FOR VIRTUALLY ALL OF THE FA BY WED
MORN. LASTLY...WITH LOW TO MID LVL WARM ADVCN WHICH WILL INCLUDE A
MARINE COMPONENT OF AIRFLOW WILL RESULT IN PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE N
VERY LATE TNGT AND AREAS OF FOG S WHICH WILL LIKELY CARRY OVER
WELL INTO THE MORN HRS.

MOST OF THE STEADY RN SHOULD TAPER OFF TO LIGHTER SHWRS WED AFTN
AS THE S/WV MOVES E OF THE FA. LOW TEMPS WILL BE MILD AGAIN AS
CLDNSS...RNFL AND FOG LATE TNGT KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING MUCH.
HI TEMPS WED WILL BE MUCH SUPPRESSED DUE TO LLVL DAMMING OF RAIN
COOLED AIR HANGING IN ACROSS THE FA THRU THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROF ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD WILL SLOWLY MIGRATE EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND THROUGH QUEBEC...PASSING TO
NORTH OF THE STATE LATE THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATER THURSDAY. THE FRONT
WILL SLOW DOWN AS IT BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW WITH A BROAD
SOUTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE.

A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL EXIST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTH ACROSS THE REGION. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL INCREASE DURING
THE DAY THURSDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THERE WILL ALSO BE THE CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THURSDAY AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN
AREAS WHERE SB CAPES INCREASE TO 500-1000 J/KG PER GFS. THERE IS
SOME 0-6KM SHEAR AS WELL SO POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR SOME ORGANIZED
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. OF COURSE...THIS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON JUST
HOW MUCH INSTABILITY DEVELOPS IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. THINKING WE
WILL SOME BREAKS OF SUNSHINE ACROSS WESTERN AREAS AWAY FROM THE
COAST AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES SOMEWHAT MORE SOUTHWEST. FOR
NOW...HAVE CONFINED MENTION OF THUNDER TO WESTERN AND NORTHERN
AREAS THURSDAY WITH MARINE INFLUENCE KEEPING THINGS MORE STABLE
DOWNEAST. WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR BREAKS ON THURSDAY AND 925 MB
TEMPERATURES AROUND +17C HAVE HAVE LEANED WITH WARMER MAV NOS FOR
MAXS THURSDAY.

SHOWERY TYPE WEATHER AND PERHAPS SOME LINGERING THUNDER CAN BE
EXPECTED INTO THURSDAY EVENING BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO A MORE STEADY
RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING TO OUR SOUTH ALONG THE SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A
STEAD RAIN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
NORTHEAST ALONG THE NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE
AREA. LOOK LIKE MOST AREAS WILL SEE ANYWHERE FROM A QUARTER TO HALF
AN INCH OF RAINFALL ON FRIDAY. BLENDED SREF/GFS FOR RAINFALL
AMOUNTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DAMP AND UNSETTLED WEATHER PTRN LOOKS TO CONT INTO THE LONGER
TERM... LONG RANGE GUIDANCE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT W/ THE OPNL 12Z
GFS AND 00Z ECMWF SHOWING A NRLY STALLED FRONTAL BNDRY OVR EXTRA
SERN MAINE AT 00Z SAT. BOTH MODELS ADVERTISE BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRES FROM S OF SRN NEW ENGLAND UP INTO NB. BY 12Z SAT THE GFS HAS
DVLP A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT CLOSED SFC LOW PRES SYSTEM NR CAPE COD
WHILE THE ECMWF IS FURTHER NEWRD W/ THIS LOW OVR WRN NS... BY 00Z
SUN...THE GFS HAS MOVD THIS DEEPENING SYSTEM NEWRD INTO SERN MAINE
WHILE THE ECMWF HAS THE SYSTEM OVR XTRM NERN NB. THEREAFTER THE
GFS WRAPS THIS LOW INTO NRN MAINE WHILE THE ECMWF LIFTS IT NEWRD
TO THE MOUTH OF THE ST LAWRENCE BY 12Z SUN. DESPITE THE 12
TIMING DIFFS...BOTH MODELS SUGGEST A POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT QPF
EVENT FOR THE PD LATER FRI NGT INTO SAT NGT W/ CHILLY AND
UNSETTLED CONDS PERSISTING THRU SUN.

STILL BRISK AND CHILLY INTO MON W/ A CONTG CHC OF SOME SHOWERS
SPCLY N AND W THEN APPEARS SOME DRIER AND MILDER AIR MAY FINALLY
WORK INTO THE FA BY TUE. ATTM...NOT THE BEST LOOKING MEMORIAL DAY
WEEKEND WX WISE FOR OUR REGION...

WILL CARRY LIKELY TO CAT POPS FRI NGT INTO SAT NGT W/ THE HIGHEST
POPS E AND SE. PLAYED TEMPS ON THE COOL SIDE USING A CONS ALL
BLEND...

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR NRN TAF SITES THIS EVENING WHILE DOWNEAST SITES
HOLD IFR OR IMPROVE TO MVFR. ALL SITES THEN LOWERING TO IFR TO
LIFR LATE TNGT INTO ERLY WED MORN WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW CLDNSS
SHWRS AND PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG. LIFR CONDITIONS WED MORN ONLY
IMPROVE TO IFR WED AFTN AS STEADY MORN RN AND FOG TAPERS TO AFTN
SHWRS.

SHORT TERM: MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
INTO THURSDAY MORNING IN LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR/VFR LATER THURSDAY MORNING INTO THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION
LATER THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND COULD EVEN SEE SOME SCT TSRA NORTHERN
TERMINALS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MVFR/IFR CAN BE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY
IN STEADY RAIN.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HDLNS XPCTD OVRNGT THRU WED. WV HTS WILL HAVE SOME
SWELL COMPONENT OVR THE OUTER WATERS...REACHING UP TO 4 FT AT TMS.
WE USED A BLEND OF WW3 AND SWAN GFS...SMOOTHED 10 TMS OVR IN THE
VCNTY OF THE COAST TO LOWER WV HTS FOR THE INNER BAY/HARBOR MZ.

SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WINDS/SEAS WILL INCREASE THURSDAY AND CONTINUE
TO INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY. AREAS OF FOG WILL LIKELY REDUCE VISIBILITY TO 1 TO 3 NM
ESPECIALLY THURSDAY NIGHT AND ON FRIDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT

000
FXUS61 KGYX 220040
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
840 PM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND
SOUTHWEST MAINE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...FINALLY LIFTING NORTH OF THE
REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST THURSDAY AND WILL GRADUALLY PUSH OFFSHORE LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ON THE FRONT OVER THE
GULF OF MAINE FRIDAY NIGHT AND WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE
MARITIMES ON SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT OFF TO
THE NORTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...

0830 UPDATE...LINE OF SHOWERS ENTERING VT HAS INCREASED IN FORWARD
SPEED DURING THE PAST HOUR AND SHOULD RAECH WESTERN NH BY 10 PM.
AM UPDATING FORECAST PRUDUCTS TO ADD THUNDER EARLIER IN NH AND
WESTERN MAINE ZONES. THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER IS MINIMAL DUE TO
COOL STABLE LAYER NEAR SURFACE.

730 UPDATE...
JUST UPDATED GRIDS TO TREAK TEMPS/DEWPTS TO MOST RECENT OBS. COLD
FRONT HAS PUSHED WESTWARD THROUGH NEW HAMPSHIRE. CONVECTION THAT
DEVELOPED ALONG THE CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY HAS BEEN FALLING
APART AS IT MOVES OVER COLDER AIR. SHOWERS OVER VT HAVE ALSO BEEN
WEAKENING AS THEY MOVE EAST...SO THREAT OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NH THIS EVENING HAS BEEN DIMINISHING. MUCH
LARGER AREA OF CONVECTION OVER WESTERN NY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH SFC TEMPS WILL BE COOL...SHOWERS AND A FEW
TSTMS ARE EXPECTED AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH DUE TO ELEVATED
INSTABILITY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WARM FRONT CURRENTLY STALLED ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND WESTERNMOST NEW
HAMPSHIRE AS OF 245 PM. TEMPERATURES SOUTH OF THE FRONT HAVE RISEN
INTO THE 70S AND 80S. MEANWHILE EVERYONE ELSE ACROSS THE CWA
REMAIN NORTH OF THE FRONT AND SUBSEQUENTLY IN A MUCH COOLER
AIRMASS WITH CLOUDS AND DRIZZLE/SHOWERS.

THE INCREASED SUNSHINE AND WARM TEMPS AS WELL AS RELATIVELY HIGH
DEWPOINTS IN SWRN NH HAVE ALLOWED FOR MODERATE INSTABILITY TO
DEVELOP THERE. THIS COMBINED WITH AMPLE WIND SHEAR MAY ALLOW FOR A
FEW STRONG STORMS IF DEEP MOIST CONVECTION WERE TO INITIATE. AS OF
RIGHT NOW...IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE OF INITIATION WILL BE
OVER MASSACHUSETTS...BUT IT/S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ONE OR TWO
STORMS DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN NH THROUGH ABOUT 5 OR 6 PM.
THEREAFTER...A MUCH MORE STABLE AIRMASS WILL ARRIVE FROM THE
NORTHEAST AND SUBSEQUENTLY SQUASH ANY SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY.

TO THE NORTH...OCCASIONAL DRIZZLE...FOG...AND SHOWERS WILL PERSIST
INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

LATER TONIGHT...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
AND INCREASE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA...MAINLY
ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE THE BEST FORCING FOR ASCENT IS EXPECTED TO
OCCUR. SUFFICIENT ELEVATED INSTABILITY FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD BE PRESENT AS WELL...SO MADE SURE THEY WERE INCLUDED IN THE
FORECAST FOR ALL ZONES DESPITE THE COOL STABLE LOW LEVEL
CONDITIONS. LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS MAY OCCUR...BUT SEVERE WEATHER
IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE WARM FRONT WILL TRY TO MAKE A PUSH NORTHWARD ONCE AGAIN ON
WEDNESDAY AND LIKELY SUCCEED IN DOING SO AS FAR NORTH AS NORTHERN
NH TO JUST SOUTH OF PORTLAND. TEMPS WILL WARM APPRECIABLY TO THE
SOUTH OF THE FRONT...AT LEAST WELL INTO THE 70S. HOWEVER...AT THE
IMMEDIATE COAST NORTHWARD TO CENTRAL MAINE THE WARM FRONT PROBABLY
WON/T MAKE IT. IT WILL THEREFORE BE COOLER IN THOSE AREAS. AS FAR
AS PRECIPITATION CHANCES GO ON WEDNESDAY...THE SHOWERS/STORMS WITH
THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH TONIGHT SHOULD END EARLY ON.
THE BULK OF THE MORNING MAY BE MAINLY DRY. THEREAFTER...THE
HEATING OF THE DAY WILL LIKELY PROMOTE ADDITIONAL SCT SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...ALTHOUGH FORCING FOR ASCENT IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE ALL THAT ROBUST.

SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTINUE WED NIGHT AS WARM FRONT
TRIES TO LIFT THROUGH.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON THURSDAY
AS DEEP UPPER TROUGH SWINGS IN FROM THE WEST. DAY MAY START DRY FOR
MOST AREAS BUT WILL SEE INCREASING POPS IN NORTHWEST ZONES DURING
THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT NEARS AND DAYTIME
HEATING DESTABILIZES THE AIR AHEAD OF IT. EXPECT ENOUGH INSTABILITY
TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AREA FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EXCEPT FOR MID COAST MAINE WHERE AN ONSHORE FLOW
WILL LIMIT CAPES. BEST CHANCES OF PRECIP WILL BE IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
CONNECTICUT VALLEY. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE LIMITED BY CLOUD COVER BUT
MOST AREAS AWAY FROM THE COAST WILL RANGE THROUGH THE 70S TO NEAR
80.

THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
KEEPING SHOWERS AND A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD. SEVERAL SURGES OF ENERGY DIVING INTO APPROACHING
UPPER TROUGH WILL COMPLICATE THE FORECAST FRIDAY AND BEYOND. AS
USUAL MODELS HAVING DIFFICULTY WITH TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THESE
FEATURES BUT BOTTOM LINE APPEARS TO HAND THE NORTHEAST ANOTHER
LINGERING CLOSED LOW PUTTING A DAMPER ON WEATHER OVER THE NORTHEAST
EXTENDING INTO THE WEEKEND.

IF THE 12Z GFS VERIFIES...COULD BE A BLUSTERY...COLD AND DAMP WEEKEND.
FOR NOW...LEANING MORE TOWARD THE OPTIMISTIC 00Z ECMWF WHICH LIFTS
THE UPPER LOW OUT A LITTLE QUICKER. THIS WOULD BRING LINGERING
SHOWERS TO AN END BY SATURDAY EVENING WITH IMPROVING BUT CHILLY
CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

LOOKING FOR FAIR WEATHER TO CONTINUE ON MONDAY ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY
MODERATING TEMPS AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE
WEST.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM...IFR OR LOWER TONIGHT IN FOG/DRIZZLE/SHOWERS/LOW
CLOUDS. SOME IMPROVEMENT FOR WEDNESDAY AS WARM FRONT TRIES TO LIFT
NORTHWARD. LOW CONDITIONS LIKELY TO RETURN WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...VFR THURSDAY WITH MVFR/IFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING
THURSDAY NIGHT AND PERSISTING THROUGH SATURDAY. BECOMING VFR
SATURDAY NIGHT. VFR SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...NO FLAGS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...BUT FOG
DRIZZLE AND SHOWERS EXPECTED TO SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE VSBYS.

LONG TERM...SCA`S LIKELY THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO PROBLEMS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...JENSENIUS
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
FIRE WEATHER...

000
FXUS61 KGYX 212335
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
735 PM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND
SOUTHWEST MAINE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...FINALLY LIFTING NORTH OF THE
REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST THURSDAY AND WILL GRADUALLY PUSH OFFSHORE LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ON THE FRONT OVER THE
GULF OF MAINE FRIDAY NIGHT AND WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE
MARITIMES ON SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT OFF TO
THE NORTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
730 UPDATE...
JUST UPDATED GRIDS TO TREAK TEMPS/DEWPTS TO MOST RECENT OBS. COLD
FRONT HAS PUSHED WESTWARD THROUGH NEW HAMPSHIRE. CONVECTION THAT
DEVELOPED ALONG THE CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY HAS BEEN FALLING
APART AS IT MOVES OVER COLDER AIR. SHOWERS OVER VT HAVE ALSO BEEN
WEAKENING AS THEY MOVE EAST...SO THREAT OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NH THIS EVENING HAS BEEN DIMINISHING. MUCH
LARGER AREA OF CONVECTION OVER WESTERN NY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH SFC TEMPS WILL BE COOL...SHOWERS AND A FEW
TSTMS ARE EXPECTED AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH DUE TO ELEVATED
INSTABILITY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WARM FRONT CURRENTLY STALLED ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND WESTERNMOST NEW
HAMPSHIRE AS OF 245 PM. TEMPERATURES SOUTH OF THE FRONT HAVE RISEN
INTO THE 70S AND 80S. MEANWHILE EVERYONE ELSE ACROSS THE CWA
REMAIN NORTH OF THE FRONT AND SUBSEQUENTLY IN A MUCH COOLER
AIRMASS WITH CLOUDS AND DRIZZLE/SHOWERS.

THE INCREASED SUNSHINE AND WARM TEMPS AS WELL AS RELATIVELY HIGH
DEWPOINTS IN SWRN NH HAVE ALLOWED FOR MODERATE INSTABILITY TO
DEVELOP THERE. THIS COMBINED WITH AMPLE WIND SHEAR MAY ALLOW FOR A
FEW STRONG STORMS IF DEEP MOIST CONVECTION WERE TO INITIATE. AS OF
RIGHT NOW...IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE OF INITIATION WILL BE
OVER MASSACHUSETTS...BUT IT/S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ONE OR TWO
STORMS DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN NH THROUGH ABOUT 5 OR 6 PM.
THEREAFTER...A MUCH MORE STABLE AIRMASS WILL ARRIVE FROM THE
NORTHEAST AND SUBSEQUENTLY SQUASH ANY SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY.

TO THE NORTH...OCCASIONAL DRIZZLE...FOG...AND SHOWERS WILL PERSIST
INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

LATER TONIGHT...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
AND INCREASE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA...MAINLY
ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE THE BEST FORCING FOR ASCENT IS EXPECTED TO
OCCUR. SUFFICIENT ELEVATED INSTABILITY FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD BE PRESENT AS WELL...SO MADE SURE THEY WERE INCLUDED IN THE
FORECAST FOR ALL ZONES DESPITE THE COOL STABLE LOW LEVEL
CONDITIONS. LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS MAY OCCUR...BUT SEVERE WEATHER
IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE WARM FRONT WILL TRY TO MAKE A PUSH NORTHWARD ONCE AGAIN ON
WEDNESDAY AND LIKELY SUCCEED IN DOING SO AS FAR NORTH AS NORTHERN
NH TO JUST SOUTH OF PORTLAND. TEMPS WILL WARM APPRECIABLY TO THE
SOUTH OF THE FRONT...AT LEAST WELL INTO THE 70S. HOWEVER...AT THE
IMMEDIATE COAST NORTHWARD TO CENTRAL MAINE THE WARM FRONT PROBABLY
WON/T MAKE IT. IT WILL THEREFORE BE COOLER IN THOSE AREAS. AS FAR
AS PRECIPITATION CHANCES GO ON WEDNESDAY...THE SHOWERS/STORMS WITH
THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH TONIGHT SHOULD END EARLY ON.
THE BULK OF THE MORNING MAY BE MAINLY DRY. THEREAFTER...THE
HEATING OF THE DAY WILL LIKELY PROMOTE ADDITIONAL SCT SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...ALTHOUGH FORCING FOR ASCENT IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE ALL THAT ROBUST.

SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTINUE WED NIGHT AS WARM FRONT
TRIES TO LIFT THROUGH.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON THURSDAY
AS DEEP UPPER TROUGH SWINGS IN FROM THE WEST. DAY MAY START DRY FOR
MOST AREAS BUT WILL SEE INCREASING POPS IN NORTHWEST ZONES DURING
THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT NEARS AND DAYTIME
HEATING DESTABILIZES THE AIR AHEAD OF IT. EXPECT ENOUGH INSTABILITY
TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AREA FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EXCEPT FOR MID COAST MAINE WHERE AN ONSHORE FLOW
WILL LIMIT CAPES. BEST CHANCES OF PRECIP WILL BE IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
CONNECTICUT VALLEY. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE LIMITED BY CLOUD COVER BUT
MOST AREAS AWAY FROM THE COAST WILL RANGE THROUGH THE 70S TO NEAR
80.

THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
KEEPING SHOWERS AND A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD. SEVERAL SURGES OF ENERGY DIVING INTO APPROACHING
UPPER TROUGH WILL COMPLICATE THE FORECAST FRIDAY AND BEYOND. AS
USUAL MODELS HAVING DIFFICULTY WITH TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THESE
FEATURES BUT BOTTOM LINE APPEARS TO HAND THE NORTHEAST ANOTHER
LINGERING CLOSED LOW PUTTING A DAMPER ON WEATHER OVER THE NORTHEAST
EXTENDING INTO THE WEEKEND.

IF THE 12Z GFS VERIFIES...COULD BE A BLUSTERY...COLD AND DAMP WEEKEND.
FOR NOW...LEANING MORE TOWARD THE OPTIMISTIC 00Z ECMWF WHICH LIFTS
THE UPPER LOW OUT A LITTLE QUICKER. THIS WOULD BRING LINGERING
SHOWERS TO AN END BY SATURDAY EVENING WITH IMPROVING BUT CHILLY
CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

LOOKING FOR FAIR WEATHER TO CONTINUE ON MONDAY ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY
MODERATING TEMPS AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE
WEST.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM...IFR OR LOWER TONIGHT IN FOG/DRIZZLE/SHOWERS/LOW
CLOUDS. SOME IMPROVEMENT FOR WEDNESDAY AS WARM FRONT TRIES TO LIFT
NORTHWARD. LOW CONDITIONS LIKELY TO RETURN WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...VFR THURSDAY WITH MVFR/IFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING
THURSDAY NIGHT AND PERSISTING THROUGH SATURDAY. BECOMING VFR
SATURDAY NIGHT. VFR SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...NO FLAGS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...BUT FOG
DRIZZLE AND SHOWERS EXPECTED TO SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE VSBYS.

LONG TERM...SCA`S LIKELY THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO PROBLEMS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...JENSENIUS

000
FXUS61 KCAR 212245
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
645 PM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN ALONG THE SOUTHERN PART OF OUR
REGION THROUGH MID WEEK. SMALL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. A LARGER STORM SYSTEM
FROM THE MIDWEST WILL TRACK TO OUR WEST ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
645 PM UPDATE: ADJUSTED THE POPS TO ADVERTISE RAIN COMING INTO THE
WRN AREAS EARLIER THAN PREVIOUSLY FCST USING THE LATEST RADAR AND
HRRR. RAFL AFTER MIDNIGHT IN THE WEST-CENTRAL AREAS COULD BE HEAVY
AT TIMES AS RUC SHOWS NICE 5OKT JETLET AT 700 MBS OVERRUNNING THE
WARM FRONT. DECENT LLVL CONVERGENCE IN PLACE AS WELL. THEREFORE,
QPF WAS ADJUSTED USING THE LATEST NERFC GRIDS WHICH SHOWS UP TO
.75" FROM 06-12Z WEDNESDAY IN THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS. TWEAKED
TEMPERATURES USING THE LATEST LAMP WHICH POINTS TO TEMPERATURES
WARMER THAN PREVIOUSLY FCST.

THE FA WILL ENJOY A BRIEF BREAK IN THE ACTION ERLY THIS EVE
BEFORE CLDNSS FROM ANOTHER S/WV...OLD CNVCTV COMPLEX MOVE W TO E
INTO THE FA DURG THE OVRNGT HRS AS A SFC WARM FRONT REMAINS
STATIONARY OVR THE GULF OF ME. BLENDED 6 HRLY RNFL AMOUNTS LOOK TO
BE MORE SIG AND WIDESPREAD THAN THE AREA OF SHWRS THAT CROSSED THE
REGION EARLIER TDY. IN ADDITION...THERE MAY BE HEAVIER DOWNPOURS
AS MORE CNVCTV ELEMENTS MOVE INTO E CNTRL AND DOWNEAST PTNS OF THE
FA WITH A WEAK ELEVATED CAPE ENVIRONMENT. THIS IDEA IS SUPPORTED
BY CURRENT LGTNG STRIKES ON THE S SIDE OF THE COMPLEX AS IT MOVES
E THRU ERN ONT TOWARD SW QB...SO WE DID INCLUDE ISOLD TSTMS VERY
LATE TNGT OVR CNTRL AND DOWNEAST AREAS. WITH THIS IN MIND...SOME
LOCATIONS OVR THESE PTNS OF THE FA COULD RECEIVE ARND AN INCH OR
EVEN A LITTLE MORE OF TOTAL QPF...WITH ARND A HLF INCH OR SO OVR
THE N...ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY NEAR 100 PERCENT POPS FOR VIRTUALLY ALL
OF THE FA BY WED MORN. LASTLY...WITH LOW TO MID LVL WARM ADVCN
WHICH WILL INCLUDE A MARINE COMPONENT OF AIRFLOW WILL RESULT IN
PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE N VERY LATE TNGT AND AREAS OF FOG S WHICH
WILL LIKELY CARRY OVER WELL INTO THE MORN HRS.

MOST OF THE STEADY RN SHOULD TAPER OFF TO LIGHTER SHWRS WED AFTN
AS THE S/WV MOVES E OF THE FA. LOW TEMPS WILL BE MILD AGAIN AS
CLDNSS...RNFL AND FOG LATE TNGT KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING MUCH.
HI TEMPS WED WILL BE MUCH SUPPRESSED DUE TO LLVL DAMMING OF RAIN
COOLED AIR HANGING IN ACROSS THE FA THRU THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROF ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD WILL SLOWLY MIGRATE EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND THROUGH QUEBEC...PASSING TO
NORTH OF THE STATE LATE THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATER THURSDAY. THE FRONT
WILL SLOW DOWN AS IT BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW WITH A BROAD
SOUTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE.

A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL EXIST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTH ACROSS THE REGION. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL INCREASE DURING
THE DAY THURSDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THERE WILL ALSO BE THE CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THURSDAY AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN
AREAS WHERE SB CAPES INCREASE TO 500-1000 J/KG PER GFS. THERE IS
SOME 0-6KM SHEAR AS WELL SO POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR SOME ORGANIZED
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. OF COURSE...THIS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON JUST
HOW MUCH INSTABILITY DEVELOPS IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. THINKING WE
WILL SOME BREAKS OF SUNSHINE ACROSS WESTERN AREAS AWAY FROM THE
COAST AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES SOMEWHAT MORE SOUTHWEST. FOR
NOW...HAVE CONFINED MENTION OF THUNDER TO WESTERN AND NORTHERN
AREAS THURSDAY WITH MARINE INFLUENCE KEEPING THINGS MORE STABLE
DOWNEAST. WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR BREAKS ON THURSDAY AND 925 MB
TEMPERATURES AROUND +17C HAVE HAVE LEANED WITH WARMER MAV NOS FOR
MAXS THURSDAY.

SHOWERY TYPE WEATHER AND PERHAPS SOME LINGERING THUNDER CAN BE
EXPECTED INTO THURSDAY EVENING BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO A MORE STEADY
RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING TO OUR SOUTH ALONG THE SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A
STEAD RAIN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
NORTHEAST ALONG THE NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE
AREA. LOOK LIKE MOST AREAS WILL SEE ANYWHERE FROM A QUARTER TO HALF
AN INCH OF RAINFALL ON FRIDAY. BLENDED SREF/GFS FOR RAINFALL
AMOUNTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DAMP AND UNSETTLED WEATHER PTRN LOOKS TO CONT INTO THE LONGER
TERM... LONG RANGE GUIDANCE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT W/ THE OPNL 12Z
GFS AND 00Z ECMWF SHOWING A NRLY STALLED FRONTAL BNDRY OVR EXTRA
SERN MAINE AT 00Z SAT. BOTH MODELS ADVERTISE BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRES FROM S OF SRN NEW ENGLAND UP INTO NB. BY 12Z SAT THE GFS HAS
DVLP A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT CLOSED SFC LOW PRES SYSTEM NR CAPE COD
WHILE THE ECMWF IS FURTHER NEWRD W/ THIS LOW OVR WRN NS... BY 00Z
SUN...THE GFS HAS MOVD THIS DEEPENING SYSTEM NEWRD INTO SERN MAINE
WHILE THE ECMWF HAS THE SYSTEM OVR XTRM NERN NB. THEREAFTER THE
GFS WRAPS THIS LOW INTO NRN MAINE WHILE THE ECMWF LIFTS IT NEWRD
TO THE MOUTH OF THE ST LAWRENCE BY 12Z SUN. DESPITE THE 12
TIMING DIFFS...BOTH MODELS SUGGEST A POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT QPF
EVENT FOR THE PD LATER FRI NGT INTO SAT NGT W/ CHILLY AND
UNSETTLED CONDS PERSISTING THRU SUN.

STILL BRISK AND CHILLY INTO MON W/ A CONTG CHC OF SOME SHOWERS
SPCLY N AND W THEN APPEARS SOME DRIER AND MILDER AIR MAY FINALLY
WORK INTO THE FA BY TUE. ATTM...NOT THE BEST LOOKING MEMORIAL DAY
WEEKEND WX WISE FOR OUR REGION...

WILL CARRY LIKELY TO CAT POPS FRI NGT INTO SAT NGT W/ THE HIGHEST
POPS E AND SE. PLAYED TEMPS ON THE COOL SIDE USING A CONS ALL
BLEND...

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR NRN TAF SITES THIS EVENING WHILE DOWNEAST SITES
HOLD IFR OR IMPROVE TO MVFR. ALL SITES THEN LOWERING TO IFR TO
LIFR LATE TNGT INTO ERLY WED MORN WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW CLDNSS
SHWRS AND PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG. LIFR CONDITIONS WED MORN ONLY
IMPROVE TO IFR WED AFTN AS STEADY MORN RN AND FOG TAPERS TO AFTN
SHWRS.

SHORT TERM: MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
INTO THURSDAY MORNING IN LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR/VFR LATER THURSDAY MORNING INTO THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION
LATER THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND COULD EVEN SEE SOME SCT TSRA NORTHERN
TERMINALS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MVFR/IFR CAN BE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY
IN STEADY RAIN.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HDLNS XPCTD OVRNGT THRU WED. WV HTS WILL HAVE SOME
SWELL COMPONENT OVR THE OUTER WATERS...REACHING UP TO 4 FT AT TMS.
WE USED A BLEND OF WW3 AND SWAN GFS...SMOOTHED 10 TMS OVR IN THE
VCNTY OF THE COAST TO LOWER WV HTS FOR THE INNER BAY/HARBOR MZ.

SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WINDS/SEAS WILL INCREASE THURSDAY AND CONTINUE
TO INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY. AREAS OF FOG WILL LIKELY REDUCE VISIBILITY TO 1 TO 3 NM
ESPECIALLY THURSDAY NIGHT AND ON FRIDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT/VJN
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...KHW
AVIATION...HEWITT/VJN/DUDA
MARINE...HEWITT/VJN/DUDA

000
FXUS61 KCAR 212010
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
410 PM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN ALONG THE SOUTHERN PART OF OUR
REGION THROUGH MID WEEK. SMALL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. A LARGER STORM SYSTEM
FROM THE MIDWEST WILL TRACK TO OUR WEST ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WHATS LEFT OF THE MORN SHWRS IS CURRENTLY MOVG SE OUT OF THE FA.
THERE ARE ALSO A FEW SHWRS JUST WSW OF THE FA...ENOUGH TO KEEP
ISOLD POPS FOR XTRM SW PTNS OF THE FA INTO ERLY EVE. OTHERWISE...
THE FA WILL ENJOY A BRIEF BREAK IN THE ACTION ERLY THIS EVE
BEFORE CLDNSS FROM ANOTHER S/WV...OLD CNVCTV COMPLEX MOVE W TO
E INTO THE FA DURG THE OVRNGT HRS AS A SFC WARM FRONT REMAINS
STATIONARY OVR THE GULF OF ME. BLENDED 6 HRLY RNFL AMOUNTS
LOOK TO BE MORE SIG AND WIDESPREAD THAN THE AREA OF SHWRS THAT
CROSSED THE REGION EARLIER TDY. IN ADDITION...THERE MAY BE
HEAVIER DOWNPOURS AS MORE CNVCTV ELEMENTS MOVE INTO E CNTRL
AND DOWNEAST PTNS OF THE FA WITH A WEAK ELEVATED CAPE ENVIRONMENT.
THIS IDEA IS SUPPORTED BY CURRENT LGTNG STRIKES ON THE S SIDE OF
THE COMPLEX AS IT MOVES E THRU ERN ONT TOWARD SW QB...SO WE
DID INCLUDE ISOLD TSTMS VERY LATE TNGT OVR CNTRL AND DOWNEAST
AREAS. WITH THIS IN MIND...SOME LOCATIONS OVR THESE PTNS OF THE
FA COULD RECEIVE ARND AN INCH OR EVEN A LITTLE MORE OF TOTAL
QPF...WITH ARND A HLF INCH OR SO OVR THE N...ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY
NEAR 100 PERCENT POPS FOR VIRTUALLY ALL OF THE FA BY WED MORN.
LASTLY...WITH LOW TO MID LVL WARM ADVCN WHICH WILL INCLUDE
A MARINE COMPONENT OF AIRFLOW WILL RESULT IN PATCHY FOG ACROSS
THE N VERY LATE TNGT AND AREAS OF FOG S WHICH WILL LIKELY CARRY
OVER WELL INTO THE MORN HRS.

MOST OF THE STEADY RN SHOULD TAPER OFF TO LIGHTER SHWRS WED AFTN
AS THE S/WV MOVES E OF THE FA. LOW TEMPS WILL BE MILD AGAIN AS
CLDNSS...RNFL AND FOG LATE TNGT KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING MUCH.
HI TEMPS WED WILL BE MUCH SUPPRESSED DUE TO LLVL DAMMING OF RAIN
COOLED AIR HANGING IN ACROSS THE FA THRU THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROF ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD WILL SLOWLY MIGRATE EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND THROUGH QUEBEC...PASSING TO
NORTH OF THE STATE LATE THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATER THURSDAY. THE FRONT
WILL SLOW DOWN AS IT BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW WITH A BROAD
SOUTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE.

A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL EXIST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTH ACROSS THE REGION. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL INCREASE DURING
THE DAY THURSDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THERE WILL ALSO BE THE CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THURSDAY AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN
AREAS WHERE SB CAPES INCREASE TO 500-1000 J/KG PER GFS. THERE IS
SOME 0-6KM SHEAR AS WELL SO POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR SOME ORGANIZED
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. OF COURSE...THIS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON JUST
HOW MUCH INSTABILITY DEVELOPS IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. THINKING WE
WILL SOME BREAKS OF SUNSHINE ACROSS WESTERN AREAS AWAY FROM THE
COAST AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES SOMEWHAT MORE SOUTHWEST. FOR
NOW...HAVE CONFINED MENTION OF THUNDER TO WESTERN AND NORTHERN
AREAS THURSDAY WITH MARINE INFLUENCE KEEPING THINGS MORE STABLE
DOWNEAST. WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR BREAKS ON THURSDAY AND 925 MB
TEMPERATURES AROUND +17C HAVE HAVE LEANED WITH WARMER MAV NOS FOR
MAXS THURSDAY.

SHOWERY TYPE WEATHER AND PERHAPS SOME LINGERING THUNDER CAN BE
EXPECTED INTO THURSDAY EVENING BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO A MORE STEADY
RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING TO OUR SOUTH ALONG THE SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A
STEAD RAIN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
NORTHEAST ALONG THE NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE
AREA. LOOK LIKE MOST AREAS WILL SEE ANYWHERE FROM A QUARTER TO HALF
AN INCH OF RAINFALL ON FRIDAY. BLENDED SREF/GFS FOR RAINFALL
AMOUNTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DAMP AND UNSETTLED WEATHER PTRN LOOKS TO CONT INTO THE LONGER
TERM... LONG RANGE GUIDANCE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT W/ THE OPNL 12Z
GFS AND 00Z ECMWF SHOWING A NRLY STALLED FRONTAL BNDRY OVR EXTRA
SERN MAINE AT 00Z SAT. BOTH MODELS ADVERTISE BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRES FROM S OF SRN NEW ENGLAND UP INTO NB. BY 12Z SAT THE GFS HAS
DVLP A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT CLOSED SFC LOW PRES SYSTEM NR CAPE COD
WHILE THE ECMWF IS FURTHER NEWRD W/ THIS LOW OVR WRN NS... BY 00Z
SUN...THE GFS HAS MOVD THIS DEEPENING SYSTEM NEWRD INTO SERN MAINE
WHILE THE ECMWF HAS THE SYSTEM OVR XTRM NERN NB. THEREAFTER THE
GFS WRAPS THIS LOW INTO NRN MAINE WHILE THE ECMWF LIFTS IT NEWRD
TO THE MOUTH OF THE ST LAWRENCE BY 12Z SUN. DESPITE THE 12
TIMING DIFFS...BOTH MODELS SUGGEST A POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT QPF
EVENT FOR THE PD LATER FRI NGT INTO SAT NGT W/ CHILLY AND
UNSETTLED CONDS PERSISTING THRU SUN.

STILL BRISK AND CHILLY INTO MON W/ A CONTG CHC OF SOME SHOWERS
SPCLY N AND W THEN APPEARS SOME DRIER AND MILDER AIR MAY FINALLY
WORK INTO THE FA BY TUE. ATTM...NOT THE BEST LOOKING MEMORIAL DAY
WEEKEND WX WISE FOR OUR REGION...

WILL CARRY LIKELY TO CAT POPS FRI NGT INTO SAT NGT W/ THE HIGHEST
POPS E AND SE. PLAYED TEMPS ON THE COOL SIDE USING A CONS ALL
BLEND...

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR NRN TAF SITES THIS EVENING WHILE DOWNEAST SITES
HOLD IFR OR IMPROVE TO MVFR. ALL SITES THEN LOWERING TO IFR TO
LIFR LATE TNGT INTO ERLY WED MORN WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW CLDNSS
SHWRS AND PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG. LIFR CONDITIONS WED MORN ONLY
IMPROVE TO IFR WED AFTN AS STEADY MORN RN AND FOG TAPERS TO AFTN
SHWRS.

SHORT TERM: MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
INTO THURSDAY MORNING IN LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR/VFR LATER THURSDAY MORNING INTO THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION
LATER THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND COULD EVEN SEE SOME SCT TSRA NORTHERN
TERMINALS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MVFR/IFR CAN BE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY
IN STEADY RAIN.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HDLNS XPCTD OVRNGT THRU WED. WV HTS WILL HAVE SOME
SWELL COMPONENT OVR THE OUTER WATERS...REACHING UP TO 4 FT AT TMS.
WE USED A BLEND OF WW3 AND SWAN GFS...SMOOTHED 10 TMS OVR IN THE
VCNTY OF THE COAST TO LOWER WV HTS FOR THE INNER BAY/HARBOR MZ.

SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WINDS/SEAS WILL INCREASE THURSDAY AND CONTINUE
TO INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY. AREAS OF FOG WILL LIKELY REDUCE VISIBILITY TO 1 TO 3 NM
ESPECIALLY THURSDAY NIGHT AND ON FRIDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...KHW
AVIATION...VJN/DUDA
MARINE...VJN/DUDA

000
FXUS61 KGYX 211859
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
259 PM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND
SOUTHWEST MAINE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...FINALLY LIFTING NORTH OF THE
REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST THURSDAY AND WILL GRADUALLY PUSH OFFSHORE LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ON THE FRONT OVER THE
GULF OF MAINE FRIDAY NIGHT AND WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE
MARITIMES ON SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT OFF TO
THE NORTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
WARM FRONT CURRENTLY STALLED ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND WESTERNMOST NEW
HAMPSHIRE AS OF 245 PM. TEMPERATURES SOUTH OF THE FRONT HAVE RISEN
INTO THE 70S AND 80S. MEANWHILE EVERYONE ELSE ACROSS THE CWA
REMAIN NORTH OF THE FRONT AND SUBSEQUENTLY IN A MUCH COOLER
AIRMASS WITH CLOUDS AND DRIZZLE/SHOWERS.

THE INCREASED SUNSHINE AND WARM TEMPS AS WELL AS RELATIVELY HIGH
DEWPOINTS IN SWRN NH HAVE ALLOWED FOR MODERATE INSTABILITY TO
DEVELOP THERE. THIS COMBINED WITH AMPLE WIND SHEAR MAY ALLOW FOR A
FEW STRONG STORMS IF DEEP MOIST CONVECTION WERE TO INITIATE. AS OF
RIGHT NOW...IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE OF INITIATION WILL BE
OVER MASSACHUSETTS...BUT IT/S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ONE OR TWO
STORMS DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN NH THROUGH ABOUT 5 OR 6 PM.
THEREAFTER...A MUCH MORE STABLE AIRMASS WILL ARRIVE FROM THE
NORTHEAST AND SUBSEQUENTLY SQUASH ANY SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY.

TO THE NORTH...OCCASIONAL DRIZZLE...FOG...AND SHOWERS WILL PERSIST
INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

LATER TONIGHT...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
AND INCREASE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA...MAINLY
ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE THE BEST FORCING FOR ASCENT IS EXPECTED TO
OCCUR. SUFFICIENT ELEVATED INSTABILITY FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD BE PRESENT AS WELL...SO MADE SURE THEY WERE INCLUDED IN THE
FORECAST FOR ALL ZONES DESPITE THE COOL STABLE LOW LEVEL
CONDITIONS. LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS MAY OCCUR...BUT SEVERE WEATHER
IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE WARM FRONT WILL TRY TO MAKE A PUSH NORTHWARD ONCE AGAIN ON
WEDNESDAY AND LIKELY SUCCEED IN DOING SO AS FAR NORTH AS NORTHERN
NH TO JUST SOUTH OF PORTLAND. TEMPS WILL WARM APPRECIABLY TO THE
SOUTH OF THE FRONT...AT LEAST WELL INTO THE 70S. HOWEVER...AT THE
IMMEDIATE COAST NORTHWARD TO CENTRAL MAINE THE WARM FRONT PROBABLY
WON/T MAKE IT. IT WILL THEREFORE BE COOLER IN THOSE AREAS. AS FAR
AS PRECIPITATION CHANCES GO ON WEDNESDAY...THE SHOWERS/STORMS WITH
THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH TONIGHT SHOULD END EARLY ON.
THE BULK OF THE MORNING MAY BE MAINLY DRY. THEREAFTER...THE
HEATING OF THE DAY WILL LIKELY PROMOTE ADDITIONAL SCT SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...ALTHOUGH FORCING FOR ASCENT IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE ALL THAT ROBUST.

SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTINUE WED NIGHT AS WARM FRONT
TRIES TO LIFT THROUGH.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON THURSDAY
AS DEEP UPPER TROUGH SWINGS IN FROM THE WEST. DAY MAY START DRY FOR
MOST AREAS BUT WILL SEE INCREASING POPS IN NORTHWEST ZONES DURING
THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT NEARS AND DAYTIME
HEATING DESTABILIZES THE AIR AHEAD OF IT. EXPECT ENOUGH INSTABILITY
TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AREA FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EXCEPT FOR MID COAST MAINE WHERE AN ONSHORE FLOW
WILL LIMIT CAPES. BEST CHANCES OF PRECIP WILL BE IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
CONNECTICUT VALLEY. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE LIMITED BY CLOUD COVER BUT
MOST AREAS AWAY FROM THE COAST WILL RANGE THROUGH THE 70S TO NEAR
80.

THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
KEEPING SHOWERS AND A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD. SEVERAL SURGES OF ENERGY DIVING INTO APPROACHING
UPPER TROUGH WILL COMPLICATE THE FORECAST FRIDAY AND BEYOND. AS
USUAL MODELS HAVING DIFFICULTY WITH TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THESE
FEATURES BUT BOTTOM LINE APPEARS TO HAND THE NORTHEAST ANOTHER
LINGERING CLOSED LOW PUTTING A DAMPER ON WEATHER OVER THE NORTHEAST
EXTENDING INTO THE WEEKEND.

IF THE 12Z GFS VERIFIES...COULD BE A BLUSTERY...COLD AND DAMP WEEKEND.
FOR NOW...LEANING MORE TOWARD THE OPTIMISTIC 00Z ECMWF WHICH LIFTS
THE UPPER LOW OUT A LITTLE QUICKER. THIS WOULD BRING LINGERING
SHOWERS TO AN END BY SATURDAY EVENING WITH IMPROVING BUT CHILLY
CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

LOOKING FOR FAIR WEATHER TO CONTINUE ON MONDAY ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY
MODERATING TEMPS AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE
WEST.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM...IFR OR LOWER TONIGHT IN FOG/DRIZZLE/SHOWERS/LOW
CLOUDS. SOME IMPROVEMENT FOR WEDNESDAY AS WARM FRONT TRIES TO LIFT
NORTHWARD. LOW CONDITIONS LIKELY TO RETURN WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...VFR THURSDAY WITH MVFR/IFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING
THURSDAY NIGHT AND PERSISTING THROUGH SATURDAY. BECOMING VFR
SATURDAY NIGHT. VFR SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...NO FLAGS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...BUT FOG
DRIZZLE AND SHOWERS EXPECTED TO SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE VSBYS.

LONG TERM...SCA`S LIKELY THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NO PROBLEMS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...EKSTER

000
FXUS61 KGYX 211857
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
257 PM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND
SOUTHWEST MAINE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...FINALLY LIFTING NORTH OF THE
REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST THURSDAY AND WILL GRADUALLY PUSH OFFSHORE LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ON THE FRONT OVER THE
GULF OF MAINE FRIDAY NIGHT AND WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE
MARITIMES ON SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT OFF TO
THE NORTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WARM FRONT CURRENTLY STALLED ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND WESTERNMOST NEW
HAMPSHIRE AS OF 245 PM. TEMPERATURES SOUTH OF THE FRONT HAVE RISEN
INTO THE 70S AND 80S. MEANWHILE EVERYONE ELSE ACROSS THE CWA
REMAIN NORTH OF THE FRONT AND SUBSEQUENTLY IN A MUCH COOLER
AIRMASS WITH CLOUDS AND DRIZZLE/SHOWERS.

THE INCREASED SUNSHINE AND WARM TEMPS AS WELL AS RELATIVELY HIGH
DEWPOINTS IN SWRN NH HAVE ALLOWED FOR MODERATE INSTABILITY TO
DEVELOP THERE. THIS COMBINED WITH AMPLE WIND SHEAR MAY ALLOW FOR A
FEW STRONG STORMS IF DEEP MOIST CONVECTION WERE TO INITIATE. AS OF
RIGHT NOW...IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE OF INITIATION WILL BE
OVER MASSACHUSETTS...BUT IT/S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ONE OR TWO
STORMS DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN NH THROUGH ABOUT 5 OR 6 PM.
THEREAFTER...A MUCH MORE STABLE AIRMASS WILL ARRIVE FROM THE
NORTHEAST AND SUBSEQUENTLY SQUASH ANY SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY.

TO THE NORTH...OCCASIONAL DRIZZLE...FOG...AND SHOWERS WILL PERSIST
INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

LATER TONIGHT...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
AND INCREASE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA...MAINLY
ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE THE BEST FORCING FOR ASCENT IS EXPECTED TO
OCCUR. SUFFICIENT ELEVATED INSTABILITY FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD BE PRESENT AS WELL...SO MADE SURE THEY WERE INCLUDED IN THE
FORECAST FOR ALL ZONES DESPITE THE COOL STABLE LOW LEVEL
CONDITIONS. LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS MAY OCCUR...BUT SEVERE WEATHER
IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE WARM FRONT WILL TRY TO MAKE A PUSH NORTHWARD ONCE AGAIN ON
WEDNESDAY AND LIKELY SUCCEED IN DOING SO AS FAR NORTH AS NORTHERN
NH TO JUST SOUTH OF PORTLAND. TEMPS WILL WARM APPRECIABLY TO THE
SOUTH OF THE FRONT...AT LEAST WELL INTO THE 70S. HOWEVER...AT THE
IMMEDIATE COAST NORTHWARD TO CENTRAL MAINE THE WARM FRONT PROBABLY
WON/T MAKE IT. IT WILL THEREFORE BE COOLER IN THOSE AREAS. AS FAR
AS PRECIPITATION CHANCES GO ON WEDNESDAY...THE SHOWERS/STORMS WITH
THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH TONIGHT SHOULD END EARLY ON.
THE BULK OF THE MORNING MAY BE MAINLY DRY. THEREAFTER...THE
HEATING OF THE DAY WILL LIKELY PROMOTE ADDITIONAL SCT SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...ALTHOUGH FORCING FOR ASCENT IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE ALL THAT ROBUST.

SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTINUE WED NIGHT AS WARM FRONT
TRIES TO LIFT THROUGH.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON THURSDAY
AS DEEP UPPER TROUGH SWINGS IN FROM THE WEST. DAY MAY START DRY FOR
MOST AREAS BUT WILL SEE INCREASING POPS IN NORTHWEST ZONES DURING
THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT NEARS AND DAYTIME
HEATING DESTABILIZES THE AIR AHEAD OF IT. EXPECT ENOUGH INSTABILITY
TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AREA FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EXCEPT FOR MID COAST MAINE WHERE AN ONSHORE FLOW
WILL LIMIT CAPES. BEST CHANCES OF PRECIP WILL BE IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
CONNECTICUT VALLEY. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE LIMITED BY CLOUD COVER BUT
MOST AREAS AWAY FROM THE COAST WILL RANGE THROUGH THE 70S TO NEAR
80.

THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
KEEPING SHOWERS AND A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD. SEVERAL SURGES OF ENERGY DIVING INTO APPROACHING
UPPER TROUGH WILL COMPLICATE THE FORECAST FRIDAY AND BEYOND. AS
USUAL MODELS HAVING DIFFICULTY WITH TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THESE
FEATURES BUT BOTTOM LINE APPEARS TO HAND THE NORTHEAST ANOTHER
LINGERING CLOSED LOW PUTTING A DAMPER ON WEATHER OVER THE NORTHEAST
EXTENDING INTO THE WEEKEND.

IF THE 12Z GFS VERIFIES...COULD BE A BLUSTERY...COLD AND DAMP WEEKEND.
FOR NOW...LEANING MORE TOWARD THE OPTIMISTIC 00Z ECMWF WHICH LIFTS
THE UPPER LOW OUT A LITTLE QUICKER. THIS WOULD BRING LINGERING
SHOWERS TO AN END BY SATURDAY EVENING WITH IMPROVING BUT CHILLY
CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

LOOKING FOR FAIR WEATHER TO CONTINUE ON MONDAY ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY
MODERATING TEMPS AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE
WEST.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM...IFR OR LOWER TONIGHT IN FOG/DRIZZLE/SHOWERS/LOW
CLOUDS. SOME IMPROVEMENT FOR WEDNESDAY AS WARM FRONT TRIES TO LIFT
NORTHWARD. LOW CONDITIONS LIKELY TO RETURN WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...VFR THURSDAY WITH MVFR/IFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING
THURSDAY NIGHT AND PERSISTING THROUGH SATURDAY. BECOMING VFR
SATURDAY NIGHT. VFR SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...NO FLAGS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...BUT FOG
DRIZZLE AND SHOWERS EXPECTED TO SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE VSBYS.

LONG TERM...SCA`S LIKELY THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...


&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MLE

000
FXUS61 KCAR 211613
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1213 PM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN ALONG THE SOUTHERN PART OF OUR
REGION THROUGH MID WEEK. SMALL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. A LARGER STORM SYSTEM
FROM THE MIDWEST WILL TRACK TO OUR WEST ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NOON UPDATE: LATEST RADAR REF SHOWS A SHARP CUT-OFF OF SHWRS
DEVELOPING ACROSS N CNTRL ME...SLOWLY MOVG SE. WITH THIS IN MIND...
WE LOWERED POPS TO ISOLD FOR ERLY AFTN ACROSS THE FAR NRN ZONES 1
AND 2 AND MENTIONED THAT SHWRS WILL MSLY AFFECT THE REST OF THE FA
ERLY THIS AFTN...THINKING THAT A BACK EDGE OF SHWRS WILL CLR MOST
OF THE FA BY LATE AFTN. STILL HOLD OUT HOPE THAT PARTIAL CLRG
FROM ERN QB NOW APCHG FAR NW ME WILL AT LEAST GET INTO FAR NRN
PTNS OF THE FA BY LATE AFTN. BREAKS IN THE OVC SHOULD GET INTO
N CNTRL AND CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA BY VRY LATE THIS AFTN...BUT
ONLY ENOUGH TO MENTION MCLDY VS CLDY SKIES. DID NOT CHG HI TEMPS
ATTM...THINKING LATE DAY SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW HI TEMPS TO REACH
THESE NUMBERS...RE-TREND FCST HRLY TEMPS TO FCST HI TEMPS
FROM 11 AM OBSVD TEMPS ACROSS OUR FA...IMPLYING A SLOWER RISE
TO POSTED HI TEMPS AT 5 PM.

935 AM UPDATE: ONE MORE UPDATE TO DROP MENTION OF PATCHY FOG AND
TO INCREASE POPS A LITTLE FURTHER N AND E FOR LATE THIS MORN BASED
ON THE LATEST RADAR REF PRESENTATION. MADE CORRESPONDING CHGS WITH
12Z-18Z AND TO A LESSER XTNT 18-00Z QPF TOTALS ACROSS THE FA BASED
ON THIS CHG OF POP DISTRIBUTIONS...WITH MINIMUMS OF 0.05 INCHES
EACH PD FOR LIKELY POPS AND AT LEAST 0.15 INCHES FOR CATEGORICAL
POPS. REST OF NEAR TERM ELEMENTS UNCHGD THIS UPDATE.

810 AM UPDATE: VSBYS HAVE RISEN SIG SINCE LAST UPDATE...SO WE
DROPPED THE DENS FOG ADV AND MENTIONED PATCHY FOG TIL LATE MORN...
AFTER WHICH FOG WILL NO LONGER BE ANY ISSUE. THE OTHER MAJOR CHG
WAS TO INCREASE SHWR POPS OVR S AND W PTNS OF THE FA TO BETTER
THE FCST QPF WE SHOW FOR THE 12-18Z PD TODAY...USING THE POP
FROM QPF TOOL. THIS AWARDED CATEGORICAL POPS TO FAR S AND W
PTNS OF THE FA. RADAR CURRENTLY INDICATES RNFL CONSOLIDATING
SEWRD OVR THESE PTNS OF THE FA...WITH LITTLE MOVEMENT OF ECHOES
IN THE NW MOVG TOWARD THE NE. EVEN SO...WE HAVE SCT SHWR POPS FOR
THE NE AND FAR NW FOR THIS MORN...WHICH IS HIGHER POPS THAN WE
THOUGHT YSTDY FOR THIS PD AND PTN OF THE FA. LAST CHG WAS TO
RE-TREND FCST HRLY TEMPS TO FCST HI TEMPS FROM THE 8 AM OBSVD
TEMPS ACROSS OUR FA.

6 AM UPDATE: AREAS OF DENSE FOG CONTINUE TO COVER EASTERN AREAS.
THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY WAS EXTENDED UNTIL 8 AM AFTER WHICH THE
DAYS HEATING SHOULD BEGIN TO THIN OUT THE FOG. TODAY WILL THEN
REMAIN HUMID WITH AN AREA OF SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL AND
DOWNEAST LOCATIONS THROUGH MIDDAY AS A SMALL DISTURBANCE TRACKS
THROUGH THE REGION.

ORGNL DISC: HUMID AIR ACROSS THE REGION HAS ALLOWED DENSE FOG TO
FORM IN MANY AREAS. THE FOG WILL DISSIPATE IN MOST AREAS THIS
MORNING BUT WILL LIKELY PERSIST ALONG THE COAST. SKIES WILL REMAIN
MOSTLY CLOUDY TODAY WITH STRATUS TO THE SOUTH AND STRATOCUMULUS
ACROSS THE NORTH. A WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE TRACKING ALONG THE
BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH WILL BRING SHOWERS TO CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST
AREAS TODAY AND SOME LIGHT SHOWERS MAY BRUSH THE NORTH DURING THE
MID MORNING PERIOD. THIS WILL GIVE WAY TO A MOSTLY CLOUDY NIGHT
TONIGHT. A LARGER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH LATE TONIGHT
SPREADING RAIN INTO THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. MOST OF THE RAIN IS
EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL AREAS WITH MODELS DIFFERING ON HOW MUCH
RAIN WILL MAKE IT TO THE NORTH. THE AIR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
HUMID TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH FOG LIKELY IN MANY AREAS AGAIN
TONIGHT IN THE HUMID AIR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A DISTURBANCE MOVING ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO BRING
UP TO TWO THIRDS OF INCH OF QPF TO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MAINE ON
WEDNESDAY.  THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES TO THE NORTH OF MAINE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND ALLOWS A WARM SECTOR TO SET UP FOR THURSDAY.
MODELS DIFFER A BIT ON MUCAPE VALUES IN THE WARM SECTOR...THAT BEING
SAID VALUES IN THE 500-1000 J/KG RANGE WILL BE POSSIBLE.  THIS
SHOULD ALLOW FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP DURING THE
DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE 00Z GFS DIVERGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS AND CLOSES OFF AN H5 UPPER
LOW FOR THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. THIS WOULD RESULT IN A DAMP AND
COOL HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THE 00Z CANADIAN DEVELOPS AN UNSEASONABLY
STRONG COASTAL LOW OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST AND MOVES IT
INTO THE GULF OF MAINE ON SATURDAY. THE FRONT DOES CLEAR THE COAST
SATURDAY NIGHT AND PROVIDES A DRY SUNDAY AND MEMORIAL DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING. CONDITIONS
WILL LIKELY REMAIN IFR DOWNEAST TODAY INTO TONIGHT IN LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR BY MIDDAY TODAY ACROSS
THE NORTH AND THEN VFR LATE TODAY. VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE NORTH
TONIGHT MAY LOWER TO IFR IN FOG AGAIN LATE TONIGHT.


SHORT TERM: IFR/MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE EXPECTED AT TAF SITES ON
WEDNESDAY IN RAIN AND FOG.  MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE FORECAST FOR
THURSDAY IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA TODAY
AND TONIGHT. HUMID AIR OVER THE WATERS WILL RESULT IN FOG
PERSISTING OVER THE WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT.


SHORT TERM: SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
WITH WAVE HEIGHTS 6 TO 10 FEET AND WIND GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...OKULSKI
LONG TERM...OKULSKI
AVIATION...VJN/OKULSKI
MARINE...VJN/OKULSKI

000
FXUS61 KGYX 211453
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1053 AM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE
RETURNING NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH TOUCHING OFF THUNDERSTORMS. A HIGH WILL BUILD IN
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1045 AM UPDATE...SURFACE WARM FRONT IS CURRENTLY DRAPED IN A NW-SE
FASHION FROM NEAR BOSTON MA TO SWRN NH TO NEAR BURLINGTON VT.
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THIS FRONT...TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN WELL INTO
THE 70S. NORTH OF THE FRONT...TEMPS ARE GENERALLY IN THE 50S. A
FEW CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN
THE VCNTY OF THE FRONT OVER THE LAST HOUR. WELL NORTH OF THE WARM
FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL AND MID COAST MAINE...A GENERAL RAIN
CONTINUES TO FALL BUT SHOULD TAPER OFF A LITTLE BIT GOING FORWARD.

AS THE AIRMASS HEATS UP ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT WHICH
SHOULD WAVER AROUND ACROSS SOUTHERN AND WESTERN NH THROUGH EARLY
TO MID AFTERNOON...SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE. MLCAPE VALUES MAY RISE TO 700-1000 J/KG IN THIS AREA
FROM NEAR CONCORD NH WESTWARD. WITH SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER WIND
SHEAR IN PLACE IN THIS AREA...ONE OR TWO STRONG STORMS MAY
DEVELOP DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR
THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL THERE. OTHERWISE...TO
THE NORTH OF THE FRONT...A FEW ELEVATED STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...BUT MAINLY EXPECTING COOL WEATHER ALONG WITH SOME
SHOWERS.

BY MID AFTERNOON...A BACKDOOR PUSH OF COOLER AIR WILL MOVE RAPIDLY
FROM NE TO SW...AND PUSH THE WARM FRONT BACK SOUTHWARD BY LATE IN
THE DAY.

635 AM...MINOR ADJUSTMENTS FOR THIS ESTF UPDATE TO REFLECT RADAR
TREND AS WELL AS THE MESONET.

PREV DISC...
AT 06Z...WEST-EAST ORIENTED SURFACE FRONT EXTENDED FROM NEAR LAKE
ONTARIO THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. AN IMPULSE EVIDENT ON GOES
WATER VAPOR OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WAS RACING EAST
ACCOMPANIED BY A BROKEN AREA OF CONVECTION AS DEPICTED ON NWS 88D
DOPPLER MOSAIC. THIS ACTIVITY WILL RACE EASTWARD AND REACH THE
FORECAST AREA TOWARDS 12Z. IMPULSE AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION WILL
EXIT THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH LINGERING CLOUDS AND
SPOTTY SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE IN ONSHORE FLOW TO THE NORTH OF THE
STALLED BOUNDARY. TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 50S TODAY WITH A FEW
LOW 60S POSSIBLE WELL INLAND AWAY FROM THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE NEXT BATCH OF SHOWERS ARRIVE TONIGHT AS ANOTHER IMPULSE AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW BEGIN TO GRADUALLY PUSH THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT. ON WEDNESDAY...THE BOUNDARY
CONTINUES NORTHWARD WITH SOUTHERN AND WESTERN SECTIONS ENJOYING
SUMMERTIME WARMTH AND HUMIDITY IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH HIGHS
APPROACHING 80F. FOR NORTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS AS WELL AS NEAR
THE COAST...MORE CLOUDS OR MARINE INFLUENCE WILL LIMIT HIGH
TEMPERATURES MAINLY TO THE 60S. STEADIER SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDER WITH THE WARM FRONT WILL BE REPLACED BY SCATTERED
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WARM SECTOR.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
BY 00Z THURSDAY A MORE PROGRESSIVE UPPER FLOW PATTERN DEVELOPS AS
THE CLOSED UPPER LOW THAT HAD BEEN OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE
COUNTRY FOR THE FIRST PORTION OF THE WEEK IS REABSORBED INTO THE
HEMISPHERIC FLOW AS A TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THIS TROUGH
WILL THEN TRANSLATE EASTWARDS THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY...
DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH LATE THURSDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW
TRACKS UP THE ST. LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY.

WITH THE FRONT ARRIVING INTO WESTERN NH IN THE AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY AS MID-DAY HEATING COMBINED WITH HEIGHT
FALLS ALOFT HELP TO DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE. THE BIGGEST
IMPEDIMENT TO CONVECTIVE INITIATION APPEARS TO BE THE POTENTIAL
FOR WIDE SPREAD CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE MORNING THURSDAY AS
MOISTURE MOVES IN IN THE EARLY MORNING AND SHOWERS SHOULD BE
ONGOING THROUGHOUT THE DAY, HOWEVER STRONG FORCING ALONG THE
FRONT AND A GOOD WIND SHIFT AND SURFACE CONVERGENCE SHOULD RESULT
IN SOME THUNDER FOR THE AFTERNOON.

FRIDAY THE LONG WAVE TROUGH PUSHES OUT TO SEA.... GFS SUGGEST A
QUICK MOVING SHORT WAVE COULD CAUSE LINGERING SHOWERS INTO THE
FIRST PORTION OF FRIDAY...HOWEVER HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN SUCH A
TRANSIENT FEATURE AND HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH CLEARING EARLIER IN
THE DAY. ALL GUIDANCE AGREES ON THE LOW BEING REPLACED BY A HIGH
BUILDING IN ALLOWING CLEAR SKIES AND WARM TEMPERATURES BY FRIDAY
EVENING FOR THE START OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THE HIGH WILL REMAIN
THROUGH SATURDAY AND INTO SUNDAY WHEN ANOTHER BOUNDARY STALLING TO
OUR SOUTH BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWER THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA FOR MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...MVFR WITH AREAS OF IFR IN FOG AND
DRIZZLE THROUGH TONIGHT. BECOMING VFR WED WITH SCATTERED MVFR IN
SHOWERS AND LCL BRIEF IFR IN THUNDERSTORMS.


LONG TERM...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL SEE IFR FOG AND SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS...
WITH MVFR AND POSSIBLE PERIODS OF IFR ON THE COASTAL PLAIN.
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS MAY IMPACT... ESPECIALLY IN NEW HAMPSHIRE.
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO VFR FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...QUIET ON THE WATERS WITH ONLY
ISSUE VSBY RESTRICTIONS IN FOG AND PRECIPITATION.

LONG TERM...
SEAS WILL BUILD UNDER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO
THURSDAY.. WITH SCA FOR HIGH SEAS MOST LIKELY BY MIDDAY ON
THURSDAY. AFTER THE WINDS SHIFT NORTHWESTERLY SEAS WILL DIMINISH
WITH RELATIVELY CALM AND FLAT CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WITH DAMP WEATHER EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK ALONG WITH HIGHER
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AND GREEN UP...FIRE WEATHER DANGER SHOULD
REMAIN LOW THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM UPDATE...EKSTER

000
FXUS61 KCAR 211345
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
945 AM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN ALONG THE SOUTHERN PART OF OUR
REGION THROUGH MID WEEK. SMALL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. A LARGER STORM SYSTEM
FROM THE MIDWEST WILL TRACK TO OUR WEST ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
935 AM UPDATE: ONE MORE UPDATE TO DROP MENTION OF PATCHY FOG AND
TO INCREASE POPS A LITTLE FURTHER N AND E FOR LATE THIS MORN BASED
ON THE LATEST RADAR REF PRESENTATION. MADE CORRESPONDING CHGS WITH
12Z-18Z AND TO A LESSER XTNT 18-00Z QPF TOTALS ACROSS THE FA BASED
ON THIS CHG OF POP DISTRIBUTIONS...WITH MINIMUMS OF 0.05 INCHES
EACH PD FOR LIKELY POPS AND AT LEAST 0.15 INCHES FOR CATEGORICAL
POPS. REST OF NEAR TERM ELEMENTS UNCHGD THIS UPDATE.

810 AM UPDATE: VSBYS HAVE RISEN SIG SINCE LAST UPDATE...SO WE
DROPPED THE DENS FOG ADV AND MENTIONED PATCHY FOG TIL LATE MORN...
AFTER WHICH FOG WILL NO LONGER BE ANY ISSUE. THE OTHER MAJOR CHG
WAS TO INCREASE SHWR POPS OVR S AND W PTNS OF THE FA TO BETTER
THE FCST QPF WE SHOW FOR THE 12-18Z PD TODAY...USING THE POP
FROM QPF TOOL. THIS AWARDED CATEGORICAL POPS TO FAR S AND W
PTNS OF THE FA. RADAR CURRENTLY INDICATES RNFL CONSOLIDATING
SEWRD OVR THESE PTNS OF THE FA...WITH LITTLE MOVEMENT OF ECHOES
IN THE NW MOVG TOWARD THE NE. EVEN SO...WE HAVE SCT SHWR POPS FOR
THE NE AND FAR NW FOR THIS MORN...WHICH IS HIGHER POPS THAN WE
THOUGHT YSTDY FOR THIS PD AND PTN OF THE FA. LAST CHG WAS TO
RE-TREND FCST HRLY TEMPS TO FCST HI TEMPS FROM THE 8 AM OBSVD
TEMPS ACROSS OUR FA.

6 AM UPDATE: AREAS OF DENSE FOG CONTINUE TO COVER EASTERN AREAS.
THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY WAS EXTENDED UNTIL 8 AM AFTER WHICH THE
DAYS HEATING SHOULD BEGIN TO THIN OUT THE FOG. TODAY WILL THEN
REMAIN HUMID WITH AN AREA OF SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL AND
DOWNEAST LOCATIONS THROUGH MIDDAY AS A SMALL DISTURBANCE TRACKS
THROUGH THE REGION.

ORGNL DISC: HUMID AIR ACROSS THE REGION HAS ALLOWED DENSE FOG TO
FORM IN MANY AREAS. THE FOG WILL DISSIPATE IN MOST AREAS THIS
MORNING BUT WILL LIKELY PERSIST ALONG THE COAST. SKIES WILL REMAIN
MOSTLY CLOUDY TODAY WITH STRATUS TO THE SOUTH AND STRATOCUMULUS
ACROSS THE NORTH. A WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE TRACKING ALONG THE
BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH WILL BRING SHOWERS TO CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST
AREAS TODAY AND SOME LIGHT SHOWERS MAY BRUSH THE NORTH DURING THE
MID MORNING PERIOD. THIS WILL GIVE WAY TO A MOSTLY CLOUDY NIGHT
TONIGHT. A LARGER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH LATE TONIGHT
SPREADING RAIN INTO THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. MOST OF THE RAIN IS
EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL AREAS WITH MODELS DIFFERING ON HOW MUCH
RAIN WILL MAKE IT TO THE NORTH. THE AIR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
HUMID TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH FOG LIKELY IN MANY AREAS AGAIN
TONIGHT IN THE HUMID AIR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A DISTURBANCE MOVING ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO BRING
UP TO TWO THIRDS OF INCH OF QPF TO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MAINE ON
WEDNESDAY.  THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES TO THE NORTH OF MAINE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND ALLOWS A WARM SECTOR TO SET UP FOR THURSDAY.
MODELS DIFFER A BIT ON MUCAPE VALUES IN THE WARM SECTOR...THAT BEING
SAID VALUES IN THE 500-1000 J/KG RANGE WILL BE POSSIBLE.  THIS
SHOULD ALLOW FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP DURING THE
DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE 00Z GFS DIVERGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS AND CLOSES OFF AN H5 UPPER
LOW FOR THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. THIS WOULD RESULT IN A DAMP AND
COOL HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THE 00Z CANADIAN DEVELOPS AN UNSEASONABLY
STRONG COASTAL LOW OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST AND MOVES IT
INTO THE GULF OF MAINE ON SATURDAY. THE FRONT DOES CLEAR THE COAST
SATURDAY NIGHT AND PROVIDES A DRY SUNDAY AND MEMORIAL DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING. CONDITIONS
WILL LIKELY REMAIN IFR DOWNEAST TODAY INTO TONIGHT IN LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR BY MIDDAY TODAY ACROSS
THE NORTH AND THEN VFR LATE TODAY. VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE NORTH
TONIGHT MAY LOWER TO IFR IN FOG AGAIN LATE TONIGHT.


SHORT TERM: IFR/MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE EXPECTED AT TAF SITES ON
WEDNESDAY IN RAIN AND FOG.  MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE FORECAST FOR
THURSDAY IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA TODAY
AND TONIGHT. HUMID AIR OVER THE WATERS WILL RESULT IN FOG
PERSISTING OVER THE WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT.


SHORT TERM: SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
WITH WAVE HEIGHTS 6 TO 10 FEET AND WIND GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...OKULSKI
LONG TERM...OKULSKI
AVIATION...VJN/OKULSKI
MARINE...VJN/OKULSKI

000
FXUS61 KCAR 211234
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
834 AM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN ALONG THE SOUTHERN PART OF OUR
REGION THROUGH MID WEEK. SMALL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. A LARGER STORM SYSTEM
FROM THE MIDWEST WILL TRACK TO OUR WEST ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
810 AM UPDATE: VSBYS HAVE RISEN SIG SINCE LAST UPDATE...SO WE
DROPPED THE DENS FOG ADV AND MENTIONED PATCHY FOG TIL LATE MORN...
AFTER WHICH FOG WILL NO LONGER BE ANY ISSUE. THE OTHER MAJOR CHG
WAS TO INCREASE SHWR POPS OVR S AND W PTNS OF THE FA TO BETTER
THE FCST QPF WE SHOW FOR THE 12-18Z PD TODAY...USING THE POP
FROM QPF TOOL. THIS AWARDED CATEGORICAL POPS TO FAR S AND W
PTNS OF THE FA. RADAR CURRENTLY INDICATES RNFL CONSOLIDATING
SEWRD OVR THESE PTNS OF THE FA...WITH LITTLE MOVEMENT OF ECHOES
IN THE NW MOVG TOWARD THE NE. EVEN SO...WE HAVE SCT SHWR POPS FOR
THE NE AND FAR NW FOR THIS MORN...WHICH IS HIGHER POPS THAN WE
THOUGHT YSTDY FOR THIS PD AND PTN OF THE FA. LAST CHG WAS TO
RE-TREND FCST HRLY TEMPS TO FCST HI TEMPS FROM THE 8 AM OBSVD
TEMPS ACROSS OUR FA.

6 AM UPDATE: AREAS OF DENSE FOG CONTINUE TO COVER EASTERN AREAS.
THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY WAS EXTENDED UNTIL 8 AM AFTER WHICH THE
DAYS HEATING SHOULD BEGIN TO THIN OUT THE FOG. TODAY WILL THEN
REMAIN HUMID WITH AN AREA OF SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL AND
DOWNEAST LOCATIONS THROUGH MIDDAY AS A SMALL DISTURBANCE TRACKS
THROUGH THE REGION.

ORGNL DISC: HUMID AIR ACROSS THE REGION HAS ALLOWED DENSE FOG TO
FORM IN MANY AREAS. THE FOG WILL DISSIPATE IN MOST AREAS THIS
MORNING BUT WILL LIKELY PERSIST ALONG THE COAST. SKIES WILL REMAIN
MOSTLY CLOUDY TODAY WITH STRATUS TO THE SOUTH AND STRATOCUMULUS
ACROSS THE NORTH. A WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE TRACKING ALONG THE
BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH WILL BRING SHOWERS TO CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST
AREAS TODAY AND SOME LIGHT SHOWERS MAY BRUSH THE NORTH DURING THE
MID MORNING PERIOD. THIS WILL GIVE WAY TO A MOSTLY CLOUDY NIGHT
TONIGHT. A LARGER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH LATE TONIGHT
SPREADING RAIN INTO THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. MOST OF THE RAIN IS
EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL AREAS WITH MODELS DIFFERING ON HOW MUCH
RAIN WILL MAKE IT TO THE NORTH. THE AIR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
HUMID TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH FOG LIKELY IN MANY AREAS AGAIN
TONIGHT IN THE HUMID AIR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A DISTURBANCE MOVING ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO BRING
UP TO TWO THIRDS OF INCH OF QPF TO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MAINE ON
WEDNESDAY.  THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES TO THE NORTH OF MAINE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND ALLOWS A WARM SECTOR TO SET UP FOR THURSDAY.
MODELS DIFFER A BIT ON MUCAPE VALUES IN THE WARM SECTOR...THAT BEING
SAID VALUES IN THE 500-1000 J/KG RANGE WILL BE POSSIBLE.  THIS
SHOULD ALLOW FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP DURING THE
DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE 00Z GFS DIVERGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS AND CLOSES OFF AN H5 UPPER
LOW FOR THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. THIS WOULD RESULT IN A DAMP AND
COOL HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THE 00Z CANADIAN DEVELOPS AN UNSEASONABLY
STRONG COASTAL LOW OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST AND MOVES IT
INTO THE GULF OF MAINE ON SATURDAY. THE FRONT DOES CLEAR THE COAST
SATURDAY NIGHT AND PROVIDES A DRY SUNDAY AND MEMORIAL DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING. CONDITIONS
WILL LIKELY REMAIN IFR DOWNEAST TODAY INTO TONIGHT IN LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR BY MIDDAY TODAY ACROSS
THE NORTH AND THEN VFR LATE TODAY. VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE NORTH
TONIGHT MAY LOWER TO IFR IN FOG AGAIN LATE TONIGHT.


SHORT TERM: IFR/MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE EXPECTED AT TAF SITES ON
WEDNESDAY IN RAIN AND FOG.  MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE FORECAST FOR
THURSDAY IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA TODAY
AND TONIGHT. HUMID AIR OVER THE WATERS WILL RESULT IN FOG
PERSISTING OVER THE WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT.


SHORT TERM: SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
WITH WAVE HEIGHTS 6 TO 10 FEET AND WIND GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...OKULSKI
LONG TERM...OKULSKI
AVIATION...VJN/OKULSKI
MARINE...VJN/OKULSKI

000
FXUS61 KGYX 211035
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
635 AM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE
RETURNING NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH TOUCHING OFF THUNDERSTORMS. A HIGH WILL BUILD IN
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

635 AM...MINOR ADJUSTMENTS FOR THIS ESTF UPDATE TO REFLECT RADAR
TREND AS WELL AS THE MESONET.

PREV DISC...
AT 06Z...WEST-EAST ORIENTED SURFACE FRONT EXTENDED FROM NEAR LAKE
ONTARIO THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. AN IMPULSE EVIDENT ON GOES
WATER VAPOR OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WAS RACING EAST
ACCOMPANIED BY A BROKEN AREA OF CONVECTION AS DEPICTED ON NWS 88D
DOPPLER MOSAIC. THIS ACTIVITY WILL RACE EASTWARD AND REACH THE
FORECAST AREA TOWARDS 12Z. IMPULSE AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION WILL
EXIT THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH LINGERING CLOUDS AND
SPOTTY SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE IN ONSHORE FLOW TO THE NORTH OF THE
STALLED BOUNDARY. TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 50S TODAY WITH A FEW
LOW 60S POSSIBLE WELL INLAND AWAY FROM THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
THE NEXT BATCH OF SHOWERS ARRIVE TONIGHT AS ANOTHER IMPULSE AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW BEGIN TO GRADUALLY PUSH THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT. ON WEDNESDAY...THE BOUNDARY
CONTINUES NORTHWARD WITH SOUTHERN AND WESTERN SECTIONS ENJOYING
SUMMERTIME WARMTH AND HUMIDITY IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH HIGHS
APPROACHING 80F. FOR NORTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS AS WELL AS NEAR
THE COAST...MORE CLOUDS OR MARINE INFLUENCE WILL LIMIT HIGH
TEMPERATURES MAINLY TO THE 60S. STEADIER SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDER WITH THE WARM FRONT WILL BE REPLACED BY SCATTERED
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WARM SECTOR.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
BY 00Z THURSDAY A MORE PROGRESSIVE UPPER FLOW PATTERN DEVELOPS AS
THE CLOSED UPPER LOW THAT HAD BEEN OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE
COUNTRY FOR THE FIRST PORTION OF THE WEEK IS REABSORBED INTO THE
HEMISPHERIC FLOW AS A TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THIS TROUGH
WILL THEN TRANSLATE EASTWARDS THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY...
DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH LATE THURSDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW
TRACKS UP THE ST. LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY.

WITH THE FRONT ARRIVING INTO WESTERN NH IN THE AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY AS MID-DAY HEATING COMBINED WITH HEIGHT
FALLS ALOFT HELP TO DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE. THE BIGGEST
IMPEDIMENT TO CONVECTIVE INITIATION APPEARS TO BE THE POTENTIAL
FOR WIDE SPREAD CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE MORNING THURSDAY AS
MOISTURE MOVES IN IN THE EARLY MORNING AND SHOWERS SHOULD BE
ONGOING THROUGHOUT THE DAY, HOWEVER STRONG FORCING ALONG THE
FRONT AND A GOOD WIND SHIFT AND SURFACE CONVERGENCE SHOULD RESULT
IN SOME THUNDER FOR THE AFTERNOON.

FRIDAY THE LONG WAVE TROUGH PUSHES OUT TO SEA.... GFS SUGGEST A
QUICK MOVING SHORT WAVE COULD CAUSE LINGERING SHOWERS INTO THE
FIRST PORTION OF FRIDAY...HOWEVER HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN SUCH A
TRANSIENT FEATURE AND HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH CLEARING EARLIER IN
THE DAY. ALL GUIDANCE AGREES ON THE LOW BEING REPLACED BY A HIGH
BUILDING IN ALLOWING CLEAR SKIES AND WARM TEMPERATURES BY FRIDAY
EVENING FOR THE START OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THE HIGH WILL REMAIN
THROUGH SATURDAY AND INTO SUNDAY WHEN ANOTHER BOUNDARY STALLING TO
OUR SOUTH BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWER THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA FOR MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...MVFR WITH AREAS OF IFR IN FOG AND
DRIZZLE THROUGH TONIGHT. BECOMING VFR WED WITH SCATTERED MVFR IN
SHOWERS AND LCL BRIEF IFR IN THUNDERSTORMS.


LONG TERM...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL SEE IFR FOG AND SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS...
WITH MVFR AND POSSIBLE PERIODS OF IFR ON THE COASTAL PLAIN.
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS MAY IMPACT... ESPECIALLY IN NEW HAMPSHIRE.
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO VFR FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...QUIET ON THE WATERS WITH ONLY
ISSUE VSBY RESTRICTIONS IN FOG AND PRECIPITATION.

LONG TERM...
SEAS WILL BUILD UNDER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO
THURSDAY.. WITH SCA FOR HIGH SEAS MOST LIKELY BY MIDDAY ON
THURSDAY. AFTER THE WINDS SHIFT NORTHWESTERLY SEAS WILL DIMINISH
WITH RELATIVELY CALM AND FLAT CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WITH DAMP WEATHER EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK ALONG WITH HIGHER
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AND GREEN UP...FIRE WEATHER DANGER SHOULD
REMAIN LOW THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
ES

000
FXUS61 KCAR 210954
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
554 AM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN ALONG THE SOUTHERN PART OF OUR
REGION THROUGH MID WEEK. SMALL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. A LARGER STORM SYSTEM
FROM THE MIDWEST WILL TRACK TO OUR WEST ON THURSDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
6 AM UPDATE...AREAS OF DENSE FOG CONTINUE TO COVER EASTERN AREAS.
THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY WAS EXTENDED UNTIL 8 AM AFTER WHICH THE
DAYS HEATING SHOULD BEGIN TO THIN OUT THE FOG. TODAY WILL THEN
REMAIN HUMID WITH AN AREA OF SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL AND
DOWNEAST LOCATIONS THROUGH MIDDAY AS A SMALLD DISTURBANCE TRACKS
THROUGH THE REGION.

HUMID AIR ACROSS THE REGION HAS ALLOWED DENSE FOG TO FORM IN MANY
AREAS. THE FOG WILL DISSIPATE IN MOST AREAS THIS MORNING BUT WILL
LIKELY PERSIST ALONG THE COAST. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY
TODAY WITH STRATUS TO THE SOUTH AND STRATOCUMULUS ACROSS THE
NORTH. A WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE TRACKING ALONG THE BOUNDARY TO
OUR SOUTH WILL BRING SHOWERS TO CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS TODAY
AND SOME LIGHT SHOWERS MAY BRUSH THE NORTH DURING THE MID MORNING
PERIOD. THIS WILL GIVE WAY TO A MOSTLY CLOUDY NIGHT TONIGHT. A
LARGER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH LATE TONIGHT SPREADING
RAIN INTO THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. MOST OF THE RAIN IS EXPECTED
ACROSS CENTRAL AREAS WITH MODELS DIFFERING ON HOW MUCH RAIN WILL
MAKE IT TO THE NORTH. THE AIR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN HUMID TODAY
AND TONIGHT WITH FOG LIKELY IN MANY AREAS AGAIN TONIGHT IN THE
HUMID AIR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A DISTURBANCE MOVING ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO BRING
UP TO TWO THIRDS OF INCH OF QPF TO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MAINE ON
WEDNESDAY.  THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES TO THE NORTH OF MAINE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND ALLOWS A WARM SECTOR TO SET UP FOR THURSDAY.
MODELS DIFFER A BIT ON MUCAPE VALUES IN THE WARM SECTOR...THAT BEING
SAID VALUES IN THE 500-1000 J/KG RANGE WILL BE POSSIBLE.  THIS
SHOULD ALLOW FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP DURING THE
DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE 00Z GFS DIVERGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS AND CLOSES OFF AN H5 UPPER
LOW FOR THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. THIS WOULD RESULT IN A DAMP AND
COOL HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THE 00Z CANADIAN DEVELOPS AN UNSEASONABLY
STRONG COASTAL LOW OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST AND MOVES IT
INTO THE GULF OF MAINE ON SATURDAY. THE FRONT DOES CLEAR THE COAST
SATURDAY NIGHT AND PROVIDES A DRY SUNDAY AND MEMORIAL DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING. CONDITIONS
WILL LIKELY REMAIN IFR DOWNEAST TODAY INTO TONIGHT IN LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR BY MIDDAY TODAY ACROSS
THE NORTH AND THEN VFR LATE TODAY. VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE NORTH
TONIGHT MAY LOWER TO IFR IN FOG AGAIN LATE TONIGHT.


SHORT TERM: IFR/MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE EXPECTED AT TAF SITES ON
WEDNESDAY IN RAIN AND FOG.  MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE FORECAST FOR
THURSDAY IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA TODAY
AND TONIGHT. HUMID AIR OVER THE WATERS WILL RESULT IN FOG
PERSISTING OVER THE WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT.


SHORT TERM: SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
WITH WAVE HEIGHTS 6 TO 10 FEET AND WIND GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MEZ001-002-
     005-006-011-017-030-032.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...BLOOMER
SHORT TERM...OKULSKI
LONG TERM...OKULSKI
AVIATION...BLOOMER/OKULSKI
MARINE...BLOOMER/OKULSKI