Home > Products > State Listing > Maine Data
Latest:
 AFDCAR |  AFDGYX |
  [top]

000
FXUS61 KGYX 201517
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1117 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON.
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE TO THE
SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AND WILL INTENSIFY SOUTH OF LONG
ISLAND TUESDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL MEANDER OFF THE SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND COAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE DRIFTING OFF
TO THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1115 AM...UPDATE TO ADJUST FOR CURRENT CONDS ACROSS THE CWA...BUT
OVERALL LITTLE CHANGE FOR THE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON AS SKIES
SHOULD VARY FROM MOSTLY TO PARTLY SUNNY WITH GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING WINDS.

PREVIOUSLY...STUBBORN CLOUD COVER AND A PERSISTENT PRESSURE
GRADIENT HAVE KEPT WINDS AND TEMPERATURES UP OVERNIGHT. SOME
SHELTERED LOCATIONS MAY STILL DECOUPLE AND SEE TEMPERATURE DROP
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS BUT MANY LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING. WILL ALLOW FREEZE WARNING TO EXPIRE AT SUNRISE AS
SCHEDULED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AS THE WEAK HIGH MOVES OUT
AND A LOW BEGINS TO APPROACH ON TUESDAY. THE WINDS WILL FINALLY
BEING TO DIMINISH AS THE GRADIENT SHIFTS OFFSHORE WITH THE WEAK
RIDGING. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD WITH WIDESPREAD
CLOUD COVER KEEPING TEMPERATURES UP. TUESDAY THE WARM FRONT AHEAD
OF THE LOW WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA
BY THE END OF THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
SEASONABLE IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EAST COAST CYCLOGENESIS WILL TAKE PLACE ON SCHEDULE TUESDAY NIGHT
ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COASTLINE. THE 00Z MODEL SUITE STILL HAS
SOME DISAGREEMENT AMONGST ITS MEMBERS. AFTER MODEL CONSENSUS
INDICATED A JOG TO THE NORTH WITH THE CUTOFF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
AND SURFACE LOW...TONIGHTS MODELS ARE NOW DIGGING THE TROUGH
FURTHER TO THE SOUTH...SIMILAR TO RUNS LATE LAST WEEK. THE
STRONGER/MORE INTENSE DIGGING SOLUTION APPEARS TO BE REASONABLE
WHEN VIEWING THIS MORNINGS LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. AS OF
07Z...THE CENTER OF THE CIRCULATION OF THE UPPER LOW WAS OVER FAR
WESTERN MICHIGAN AND DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD.

CYCLOGENESIS FURTHER TO OUR SOUTH WOULD ALLOW THE DRY SLOT TO STAY
OFFSHORE UNTIL THURSDAY...THEREBY UPPING OUR STORM TOTALS RAINFALL
FORECASTS. FOR NOW...WITH A PERSISTENT AND MOIST NORTHEAST
FLOW...WE ARE EXPECTING TWO TO THREE INCHES TOTAL RAINFALL OVER
THE REGION...WITH LOCALIZED AREAS UP TO FOUR INCHES...ESPECIALLY
OVER NORTHEAST FACING HIGHER TERRAIN.

STEADY PRECIP ENDS ON FRIDAY AS THE SYSTEM LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY... WITH MVFR CEILINGS
MONDAY NIGHT. BY TUESDAY NIGHT IFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
THE REGION.

LONG TERM...PROLONGED PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS WITH LOCAL IFR AT
TIMES LATE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...BEFORE CONDITIONS SLOWLY
BEGIN TO IMPROVE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM... WINDS CONTINUE TO GUST TO 25KTS TO 30KTS ACROSS THE
OUTER WATERS THIS MORNING... BUT WILL DIMINISH BY MIDDAY. EXPECT
SCA TO BE DROPPED AROUND MID DAY... WAVES REMAIN BELOW SCA
CRITERIA THOUGH TUESDAY.

LONG TERM...GALE FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE
UPCOMING COASTAL LOW WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAIN STEM RIVERS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY MIDWEEK. MOST
SMALL RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL LIKELY HAVE SHARP RISES AS WELL.
HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL MAINE AND
THE NORTHEAST FACING HIGHER TERRAIN. AGAIN...MOSTLY 2-3 INCHES QPF
WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS NEAR OR OVER 4 INCHES.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
COASTAL FLOODING IS A POSSIBILITY AS THE SYSTEM MAKES A LOOP OVER
LONG ISLAND NEW YORK ON THURSDAY. WAVE RUN UP TOOLS INDICATING
SOME BEACH EROSION ACROSS MUCH OF OUR COASTLINE...ALONG WITH
SPLASH- OVER AND OVERWASH. NEARSHORE WAVES SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE
10 TO 15 FOOT RANGE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
HYDROLOGY...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KGYX 201517
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1117 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON.
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE TO THE
SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AND WILL INTENSIFY SOUTH OF LONG
ISLAND TUESDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL MEANDER OFF THE SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND COAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE DRIFTING OFF
TO THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1115 AM...UPDATE TO ADJUST FOR CURRENT CONDS ACROSS THE CWA...BUT
OVERALL LITTLE CHANGE FOR THE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON AS SKIES
SHOULD VARY FROM MOSTLY TO PARTLY SUNNY WITH GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING WINDS.

PREVIOUSLY...STUBBORN CLOUD COVER AND A PERSISTENT PRESSURE
GRADIENT HAVE KEPT WINDS AND TEMPERATURES UP OVERNIGHT. SOME
SHELTERED LOCATIONS MAY STILL DECOUPLE AND SEE TEMPERATURE DROP
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS BUT MANY LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING. WILL ALLOW FREEZE WARNING TO EXPIRE AT SUNRISE AS
SCHEDULED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AS THE WEAK HIGH MOVES OUT
AND A LOW BEGINS TO APPROACH ON TUESDAY. THE WINDS WILL FINALLY
BEING TO DIMINISH AS THE GRADIENT SHIFTS OFFSHORE WITH THE WEAK
RIDGING. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD WITH WIDESPREAD
CLOUD COVER KEEPING TEMPERATURES UP. TUESDAY THE WARM FRONT AHEAD
OF THE LOW WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA
BY THE END OF THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
SEASONABLE IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EAST COAST CYCLOGENESIS WILL TAKE PLACE ON SCHEDULE TUESDAY NIGHT
ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COASTLINE. THE 00Z MODEL SUITE STILL HAS
SOME DISAGREEMENT AMONGST ITS MEMBERS. AFTER MODEL CONSENSUS
INDICATED A JOG TO THE NORTH WITH THE CUTOFF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
AND SURFACE LOW...TONIGHTS MODELS ARE NOW DIGGING THE TROUGH
FURTHER TO THE SOUTH...SIMILAR TO RUNS LATE LAST WEEK. THE
STRONGER/MORE INTENSE DIGGING SOLUTION APPEARS TO BE REASONABLE
WHEN VIEWING THIS MORNINGS LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. AS OF
07Z...THE CENTER OF THE CIRCULATION OF THE UPPER LOW WAS OVER FAR
WESTERN MICHIGAN AND DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD.

CYCLOGENESIS FURTHER TO OUR SOUTH WOULD ALLOW THE DRY SLOT TO STAY
OFFSHORE UNTIL THURSDAY...THEREBY UPPING OUR STORM TOTALS RAINFALL
FORECASTS. FOR NOW...WITH A PERSISTENT AND MOIST NORTHEAST
FLOW...WE ARE EXPECTING TWO TO THREE INCHES TOTAL RAINFALL OVER
THE REGION...WITH LOCALIZED AREAS UP TO FOUR INCHES...ESPECIALLY
OVER NORTHEAST FACING HIGHER TERRAIN.

STEADY PRECIP ENDS ON FRIDAY AS THE SYSTEM LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY... WITH MVFR CEILINGS
MONDAY NIGHT. BY TUESDAY NIGHT IFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
THE REGION.

LONG TERM...PROLONGED PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS WITH LOCAL IFR AT
TIMES LATE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...BEFORE CONDITIONS SLOWLY
BEGIN TO IMPROVE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM... WINDS CONTINUE TO GUST TO 25KTS TO 30KTS ACROSS THE
OUTER WATERS THIS MORNING... BUT WILL DIMINISH BY MIDDAY. EXPECT
SCA TO BE DROPPED AROUND MID DAY... WAVES REMAIN BELOW SCA
CRITERIA THOUGH TUESDAY.

LONG TERM...GALE FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE
UPCOMING COASTAL LOW WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAIN STEM RIVERS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY MIDWEEK. MOST
SMALL RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL LIKELY HAVE SHARP RISES AS WELL.
HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL MAINE AND
THE NORTHEAST FACING HIGHER TERRAIN. AGAIN...MOSTLY 2-3 INCHES QPF
WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS NEAR OR OVER 4 INCHES.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
COASTAL FLOODING IS A POSSIBILITY AS THE SYSTEM MAKES A LOOP OVER
LONG ISLAND NEW YORK ON THURSDAY. WAVE RUN UP TOOLS INDICATING
SOME BEACH EROSION ACROSS MUCH OF OUR COASTLINE...ALONG WITH
SPLASH- OVER AND OVERWASH. NEARSHORE WAVES SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE
10 TO 15 FOOT RANGE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
HYDROLOGY...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KGYX 201517
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1117 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON.
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE TO THE
SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AND WILL INTENSIFY SOUTH OF LONG
ISLAND TUESDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL MEANDER OFF THE SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND COAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE DRIFTING OFF
TO THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1115 AM...UPDATE TO ADJUST FOR CURRENT CONDS ACROSS THE CWA...BUT
OVERALL LITTLE CHANGE FOR THE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON AS SKIES
SHOULD VARY FROM MOSTLY TO PARTLY SUNNY WITH GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING WINDS.

PREVIOUSLY...STUBBORN CLOUD COVER AND A PERSISTENT PRESSURE
GRADIENT HAVE KEPT WINDS AND TEMPERATURES UP OVERNIGHT. SOME
SHELTERED LOCATIONS MAY STILL DECOUPLE AND SEE TEMPERATURE DROP
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS BUT MANY LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING. WILL ALLOW FREEZE WARNING TO EXPIRE AT SUNRISE AS
SCHEDULED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AS THE WEAK HIGH MOVES OUT
AND A LOW BEGINS TO APPROACH ON TUESDAY. THE WINDS WILL FINALLY
BEING TO DIMINISH AS THE GRADIENT SHIFTS OFFSHORE WITH THE WEAK
RIDGING. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD WITH WIDESPREAD
CLOUD COVER KEEPING TEMPERATURES UP. TUESDAY THE WARM FRONT AHEAD
OF THE LOW WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA
BY THE END OF THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
SEASONABLE IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EAST COAST CYCLOGENESIS WILL TAKE PLACE ON SCHEDULE TUESDAY NIGHT
ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COASTLINE. THE 00Z MODEL SUITE STILL HAS
SOME DISAGREEMENT AMONGST ITS MEMBERS. AFTER MODEL CONSENSUS
INDICATED A JOG TO THE NORTH WITH THE CUTOFF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
AND SURFACE LOW...TONIGHTS MODELS ARE NOW DIGGING THE TROUGH
FURTHER TO THE SOUTH...SIMILAR TO RUNS LATE LAST WEEK. THE
STRONGER/MORE INTENSE DIGGING SOLUTION APPEARS TO BE REASONABLE
WHEN VIEWING THIS MORNINGS LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. AS OF
07Z...THE CENTER OF THE CIRCULATION OF THE UPPER LOW WAS OVER FAR
WESTERN MICHIGAN AND DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD.

CYCLOGENESIS FURTHER TO OUR SOUTH WOULD ALLOW THE DRY SLOT TO STAY
OFFSHORE UNTIL THURSDAY...THEREBY UPPING OUR STORM TOTALS RAINFALL
FORECASTS. FOR NOW...WITH A PERSISTENT AND MOIST NORTHEAST
FLOW...WE ARE EXPECTING TWO TO THREE INCHES TOTAL RAINFALL OVER
THE REGION...WITH LOCALIZED AREAS UP TO FOUR INCHES...ESPECIALLY
OVER NORTHEAST FACING HIGHER TERRAIN.

STEADY PRECIP ENDS ON FRIDAY AS THE SYSTEM LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY... WITH MVFR CEILINGS
MONDAY NIGHT. BY TUESDAY NIGHT IFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
THE REGION.

LONG TERM...PROLONGED PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS WITH LOCAL IFR AT
TIMES LATE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...BEFORE CONDITIONS SLOWLY
BEGIN TO IMPROVE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM... WINDS CONTINUE TO GUST TO 25KTS TO 30KTS ACROSS THE
OUTER WATERS THIS MORNING... BUT WILL DIMINISH BY MIDDAY. EXPECT
SCA TO BE DROPPED AROUND MID DAY... WAVES REMAIN BELOW SCA
CRITERIA THOUGH TUESDAY.

LONG TERM...GALE FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE
UPCOMING COASTAL LOW WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAIN STEM RIVERS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY MIDWEEK. MOST
SMALL RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL LIKELY HAVE SHARP RISES AS WELL.
HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL MAINE AND
THE NORTHEAST FACING HIGHER TERRAIN. AGAIN...MOSTLY 2-3 INCHES QPF
WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS NEAR OR OVER 4 INCHES.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
COASTAL FLOODING IS A POSSIBILITY AS THE SYSTEM MAKES A LOOP OVER
LONG ISLAND NEW YORK ON THURSDAY. WAVE RUN UP TOOLS INDICATING
SOME BEACH EROSION ACROSS MUCH OF OUR COASTLINE...ALONG WITH
SPLASH- OVER AND OVERWASH. NEARSHORE WAVES SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE
10 TO 15 FOOT RANGE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
HYDROLOGY...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KGYX 201517
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1117 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON.
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE TO THE
SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AND WILL INTENSIFY SOUTH OF LONG
ISLAND TUESDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL MEANDER OFF THE SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND COAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE DRIFTING OFF
TO THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1115 AM...UPDATE TO ADJUST FOR CURRENT CONDS ACROSS THE CWA...BUT
OVERALL LITTLE CHANGE FOR THE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON AS SKIES
SHOULD VARY FROM MOSTLY TO PARTLY SUNNY WITH GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING WINDS.

PREVIOUSLY...STUBBORN CLOUD COVER AND A PERSISTENT PRESSURE
GRADIENT HAVE KEPT WINDS AND TEMPERATURES UP OVERNIGHT. SOME
SHELTERED LOCATIONS MAY STILL DECOUPLE AND SEE TEMPERATURE DROP
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS BUT MANY LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING. WILL ALLOW FREEZE WARNING TO EXPIRE AT SUNRISE AS
SCHEDULED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AS THE WEAK HIGH MOVES OUT
AND A LOW BEGINS TO APPROACH ON TUESDAY. THE WINDS WILL FINALLY
BEING TO DIMINISH AS THE GRADIENT SHIFTS OFFSHORE WITH THE WEAK
RIDGING. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD WITH WIDESPREAD
CLOUD COVER KEEPING TEMPERATURES UP. TUESDAY THE WARM FRONT AHEAD
OF THE LOW WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA
BY THE END OF THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
SEASONABLE IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EAST COAST CYCLOGENESIS WILL TAKE PLACE ON SCHEDULE TUESDAY NIGHT
ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COASTLINE. THE 00Z MODEL SUITE STILL HAS
SOME DISAGREEMENT AMONGST ITS MEMBERS. AFTER MODEL CONSENSUS
INDICATED A JOG TO THE NORTH WITH THE CUTOFF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
AND SURFACE LOW...TONIGHTS MODELS ARE NOW DIGGING THE TROUGH
FURTHER TO THE SOUTH...SIMILAR TO RUNS LATE LAST WEEK. THE
STRONGER/MORE INTENSE DIGGING SOLUTION APPEARS TO BE REASONABLE
WHEN VIEWING THIS MORNINGS LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. AS OF
07Z...THE CENTER OF THE CIRCULATION OF THE UPPER LOW WAS OVER FAR
WESTERN MICHIGAN AND DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD.

CYCLOGENESIS FURTHER TO OUR SOUTH WOULD ALLOW THE DRY SLOT TO STAY
OFFSHORE UNTIL THURSDAY...THEREBY UPPING OUR STORM TOTALS RAINFALL
FORECASTS. FOR NOW...WITH A PERSISTENT AND MOIST NORTHEAST
FLOW...WE ARE EXPECTING TWO TO THREE INCHES TOTAL RAINFALL OVER
THE REGION...WITH LOCALIZED AREAS UP TO FOUR INCHES...ESPECIALLY
OVER NORTHEAST FACING HIGHER TERRAIN.

STEADY PRECIP ENDS ON FRIDAY AS THE SYSTEM LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY... WITH MVFR CEILINGS
MONDAY NIGHT. BY TUESDAY NIGHT IFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
THE REGION.

LONG TERM...PROLONGED PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS WITH LOCAL IFR AT
TIMES LATE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...BEFORE CONDITIONS SLOWLY
BEGIN TO IMPROVE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM... WINDS CONTINUE TO GUST TO 25KTS TO 30KTS ACROSS THE
OUTER WATERS THIS MORNING... BUT WILL DIMINISH BY MIDDAY. EXPECT
SCA TO BE DROPPED AROUND MID DAY... WAVES REMAIN BELOW SCA
CRITERIA THOUGH TUESDAY.

LONG TERM...GALE FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE
UPCOMING COASTAL LOW WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAIN STEM RIVERS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY MIDWEEK. MOST
SMALL RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL LIKELY HAVE SHARP RISES AS WELL.
HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL MAINE AND
THE NORTHEAST FACING HIGHER TERRAIN. AGAIN...MOSTLY 2-3 INCHES QPF
WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS NEAR OR OVER 4 INCHES.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
COASTAL FLOODING IS A POSSIBILITY AS THE SYSTEM MAKES A LOOP OVER
LONG ISLAND NEW YORK ON THURSDAY. WAVE RUN UP TOOLS INDICATING
SOME BEACH EROSION ACROSS MUCH OF OUR COASTLINE...ALONG WITH
SPLASH- OVER AND OVERWASH. NEARSHORE WAVES SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE
10 TO 15 FOOT RANGE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
HYDROLOGY...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



  [top]

000
FXUS61 KCAR 201413
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1013 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. LOW PRESSURE
WILL INTENSIFY SOUTH OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY AND LIFT SLOWLY
NORTHWARD WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE 1015 AM EDT: UPDATED TO DROP THE SCA FROM THE INTERCOASTAL
WATERS. NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

INTENSE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MARITIMES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY
TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY. AT THE SAME TIME HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN FROM THE WEST AND CREST OVER THE REGION THIS EVENING. WILL USE
THE SUPER BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINT. WITH DATA OUTAGE
WILL MANUALLY ADJUST WINDS. DO NOT EXPECT ANY QPF TODAY OR
TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A RETURN TO A WET PATTERN LOOKS TO BE HEADING OUR WAY.

TUESDAY WILL BE A DRY DAY FOR THE MOST PART W/INCREASING CLOUDS
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION FROM QUEBEC WHILE LOW PRES MOVES OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES
TOWARD THE NE STATES. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES ACROSS
THE REGION WHILE THE LOW TO SOUTH IS FORECAST TO REDEVELOP AS IT
HITS THE ATLC SEABOARD. RAIN WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN
PART OF THE STATE BY TUESDAY EVENING AND THEN GRADUALLY SPREAD
NORTHWARD TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE RAIN WILL CONTINUE
RIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE RAIN COULD ALSO BE HEAVY AT TIMES
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE DOWNEAST AND UPSLOPE FAVORED REGIONS SUCH AS
PENOBSCOT, PISCATAQUIS AND EVEN WASHINGTON COUNTY. THIS WILL BE
DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF UPPER LEVEL DIFLUENCE AND DEFORMATION
BANDING AS SHOWN BY THE NAM AND ECMWF. PLUS, THERE IS A SUSTAINED
ESE FETCH FROM 925-700MBS OVERRUNNING A ENE FLOW IN THE BLYR. THE
NAM AND ECMWF APPEAR TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT W/SHOWING THIS HEAVY
RAIN POTENTIAL THROUGH THIS TERM WHILE THE GFS IS NOT AS
CONCENTRATED W/IT PRECIP BUT DOES POINT TO THE BANDING GIVEN IS
STRONG FORCING SHOWN AT 700MBS. ATTM, DECIDED TO FOLLOW THE
DAYCREW`S ASSESSMENT AND SHOW RAIN CHANCES INCREASING TO ABOVE 80%
BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALL THE WAY INTO NORTHERN MAINE. QPF WAS
ADJUSTED UPWARDS BY AT LEAST 0.25" ACROSS THE DOWNEAST AND CENTRAL
HIGHLANDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY DUE TO THE DEFORMATION BANDING AND
UPPER DIFLUENCE POTENTIAL.

DAYTIME TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS PERIOD ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR
NORMAL WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE RUNNING ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RAIN, HEAVY AT TIMES TO CONTINUE RIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AND
THEN PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO A SHOWERY NATURE BEFORE
ENDING EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

LOW PRES WILL BECOME VERTICALLY STACKED AS MENTIONED BY THE
DAYCREW AND SLOWLY LIFT NNE ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA AND THEN INTO
MARITIMES EARLY SATURDAY. DEFORMATION BANDING AND UPPER DIFLUENCE
WILL LIFT ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE ON THURSDAY W/THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL. AS STATED ABOVE, THE RAIN WILL TRANSITION TO
SHOWERS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN WIND DOWN FRIDAY NIGHT. THE
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO STORM TOTALS HITTING 2 TO 4
INCHES ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS. THIS
COULD LEAD TO SOME FLOODING CONCERN GIVEN THE RAINFALL THAT THE
REGION RECEIVED LAST WEEK AND INTO THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL BE
ADDRESSED IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

THE WEEKEND LOOKS TO BE UNSETTLED WITH MORE SHOWERS LATER SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION W/A RETURN TO
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES DROPPING BELOW NORMAL. THERE IS STILL TIME TO
ASSESS THIS FURTHER W/THE LATER MODEL RUNS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: VFR GOING TO MVFR AND THEN IFR FOR KBGR AND KBHB
LATER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE NORTHERN TERMINALS WILL SEE VFR
HANGING ON THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ON TUESDAY W/MVFR BY LATER
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE NORTHERN TERMINALS ARE EXPECTED
TO SEE CONDITIONS DROP TO IFR BY LATER IN THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY
W/ALL TERMINALS DOWN TO IFR FOR THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: HAVE USED NAM12 FOR SUSTAINED WIND GRIDS. FOR WAVES:
EXPECT LOCAL WIND WAVE TO BE PRIMARY WAVE GROUP. LOCAL WINDS
CURRENTLY OFF-SHORE WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST LATER IN THE PERIOD.
SECONDARY LONG PERIOD WAVE SYSTEM PERSIST FROM THE SOUTHEAST 2-3
FEET/12 SECONDS BASE ON SPECTRAL DATA FROM 44027. EXPECT THIS WAVE
SYSTEM TO PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT. HAVE USE 0300Z RUN OF NEAR
SHORE WAVE MODEL TO INITIALIZE GRIDS. WILL LOWER WAVES FIRST 6
HOURS AS BOUNDARY CONDITIONS GOING INTO MODEL APPEAR TO BE A
LITTLE HIGH. PLAN TO EXTEND SCA WITH COMBINATION WIND GUSTS AND
BUILDING COMBINED SEA LATER IN PERIOD AS WINDS BECOME MORE
SOUTHWEST (LONGER FETCH) AND LONG PERIOD WAVE SYSTEM PERSISTS.


SHORT TERM: GALE FORCE WINDS COULD BE SEEN ON WEDNESDAY AS THE
PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN HIGH PRES TO THE N AND LOW PRES TO
THE S. A PROLONGED ENE FLOW WILL DEFINITELY BRING IN LARGER WAVES
& WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO SUSTAINED 25 KTS W/GUSTS
HITTING 35 KTS ON WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE PRES
GRADIENT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL LOOSEN AS THE LOW LIFTS ACROSS THE
GULF OF MAINE WATERS ON THURSDAY. DECIDED TO BRING WAVE HEIGHTS UP
TO A RANGE 10-12 FT WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

ATTM, WE ARE NOT LOOKING FOR ANY OVERWASH PROBLEMS FOR THE COAST
AS THE FLOW FOR ONE WILL BE PRETTY MUCH PARALLEL TO THE COAST AND
2ND, WAVE PERIODS WILL NOT BE HIGH ENOUGH DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ050-
     051.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...NORTON
SHORT TERM...HEWITT
LONG TERM...HEWITT
AVIATION...NORTON/HEWITT
MARINE...NORTON/HEWITT







000
FXUS61 KCAR 201313
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
913 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. LOW PRESSURE
WILL INTENSIFY SOUTH OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY AND LIFT SLOWLY
NORTHWARD WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE 0910 AM EDT: MINOR ADJUSTMENT TO HRLY TEMPS...OTHERWISE
PREVIOUS FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.

INTENSE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MARITIMES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY
TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY. AT THE SAME TIME HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN FROM THE WEST AND CREST OVER THE REGION THIS EVENING. WILL USE
THE SUPER BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINT. WITH DATA OUTAGE
WILL MANUALLY ADJUST WINDS. DO NOT EXPECT ANY QPF TODAY OR
TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A RETURN TO A WET PATTERN LOOKS TO BE HEADING OUR WAY.

TUESDAY WILL BE A DRY DAY FOR THE MOST PART W/INCREASING CLOUDS
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION FROM QUEBEC WHILE LOW PRES MOVES OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES
TOWARD THE NE STATES. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES ACROSS
THE REGION WHILE THE LOW TO SOUTH IS FORECAST TO REDEVELOP AS IT
HITS THE ATLC SEABOARD. RAIN WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN
PART OF THE STATE BY TUESDAY EVENING AND THEN GRADUALLY SPREAD
NORTHWARD TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE RAIN WILL CONTINUE
RIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE RAIN COULD ALSO BE HEAVY AT TIMES
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE DOWNEAST AND UPSLOPE FAVORED REGIONS SUCH AS
PENOBSCOT, PISCATAQUIS AND EVEN WASHINGTON COUNTY. THIS WILL BE
DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF UPPER LEVEL DIFLUENCE AND DEFORMATION
BANDING AS SHOWN BY THE NAM AND ECMWF. PLUS, THERE IS A SUSTAINED
ESE FETCH FROM 925-700MBS OVERRUNNING A ENE FLOW IN THE BLYR. THE
NAM AND ECMWF APPEAR TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT W/SHOWING THIS HEAVY
RAIN POTENTIAL THROUGH THIS TERM WHILE THE GFS IS NOT AS
CONCENTRATED W/IT PRECIP BUT DOES POINT TO THE BANDING GIVEN IS
STRONG FORCING SHOWN AT 700MBS. ATTM, DECIDED TO FOLLOW THE
DAYCREW`S ASSESSMENT AND SHOW RAIN CHANCES INCREASING TO ABOVE 80%
BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALL THE WAY INTO NORTHERN MAINE. QPF WAS
ADJUSTED UPWARDS BY AT LEAST 0.25" ACROSS THE DOWNEAST AND CENTRAL
HIGHLANDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY DUE TO THE DEFORMATION BANDING AND
UPPER DIFLUENCE POTENTIAL.

DAYTIME TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS PERIOD ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR
NORMAL WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE RUNNING ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RAIN, HEAVY AT TIMES TO CONTINUE RIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AND
THEN PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO A SHOWERY NATURE BEFORE
ENDING EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

LOW PRES WILL BECOME VERTICALLY STACKED AS MENTIONED BY THE
DAYCREW AND SLOWLY LIFT NNE ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA AND THEN INTO
MARITIMES EARLY SATURDAY. DEFORMATION BANDING AND UPPER DIFLUENCE
WILL LIFT ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE ON THURSDAY W/THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL. AS STATED ABOVE, THE RAIN WILL TRANSITION TO
SHOWERS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN WIND DOWN FRIDAY NIGHT. THE
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO STORM TOTALS HITTING 2 TO 4
INCHES ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS. THIS
COULD LEAD TO SOME FLOODING CONCERN GIVEN THE RAINFALL THAT THE
REGION RECEIVED LAST WEEK AND INTO THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL BE
ADDRESSED IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

THE WEEKEND LOOKS TO BE UNSETTLED WITH MORE SHOWERS LATER SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION W/A RETURN TO
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES DROPPING BELOW NORMAL. THERE IS STILL TIME TO
ASSESS THIS FURTHER W/THE LATER MODEL RUNS.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: VFR GOING TO MVFR AND THEN IFR FOR KBGR AND KBHB
LATER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE NORTHERN TERMINALS WILL SEE VFR
HANGING ON THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ON TUESDAY W/MVFR BY LATER
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE NORTHERN TERMINALS ARE EXPECTED
TO SEE CONDITIONS DROP TO IFR BY LATER IN THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY
W/ALL TERMINALS DOWN TO IFR FOR THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: HAVE USED NAM12 FOR SUSTAINED WIND GRIDS. FOR WAVES:
EXPECT LOCAL WIND WAVE TO BE PRIMARY WAVE GROUP. LOCAL WINDS
CURRENTLY OFF-SHORE WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST LATER IN THE PERIOD.
SECONDARY LONG PERIOD WAVE SYSTEM PERSIST FROM THE SOUTHEAST 2-3
FEET/12 SECONDS BASE ON SPECTRAL DATA FROM 44027. EXPECT THIS WAVE
SYSTEM TO PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT. HAVE USE 0300Z RUN OF NEAR
SHORE WAVE MODEL TO INITIALIZE GRIDS. WILL LOWER WAVES FIRST 6
HOURS AS BOUNDARY CONDITIONS GOING INTO MODEL APPEAR TO BE A
LITTLE HIGH. PLAN TO EXTEND SCA WITH COMBINATION WIND GUSTS AND
BUILDING COMBINED SEA LATER IN PERIOD AS WINDS BECOME MORE
SOUTHWEST (LONGER FETCH) AND LONG PERIOD WAVE SYSTEM PERSISTS.


SHORT TERM: GALE FORCE WINDS COULD BE SEEN ON WEDNESDAY AS THE
PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN HIGH PRES TO THE N AND LOW PRES TO
THE S. A PROLONGED ENE FLOW WILL DEFINITELY BRING IN LARGER WAVES
& WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO SUSTAINED 25 KTS W/GUSTS
HITTING 35 KTS ON WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE PRES
GRADIENT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL LOOSEN AS THE LOW LIFTS ACROSS THE
GULF OF MAINE WATERS ON THURSDAY. DECIDED TO BRING WAVE HEIGHTS UP
TO A RANGE 10-12 FT WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

ATTM, WE ARE NOT LOOKING FOR ANY OVERWASH PROBLEMS FOR THE COAST
AS THE FLOW FOR ONE WILL BE PRETTY MUCH PARALLEL TO THE COAST AND
2ND, WAVE PERIODS WILL NOT BE HIGH ENOUGH DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...NORTON
SHORT TERM...HEWITT
LONG TERM...HEWITT
AVIATION...NORTON/HEWITT
MARINE...NORTON/HEWITT







000
FXUS61 KCAR 201313
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
913 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. LOW PRESSURE
WILL INTENSIFY SOUTH OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY AND LIFT SLOWLY
NORTHWARD WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE 0910 AM EDT: MINOR ADJUSTMENT TO HRLY TEMPS...OTHERWISE
PREVIOUS FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.

INTENSE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MARITIMES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY
TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY. AT THE SAME TIME HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN FROM THE WEST AND CREST OVER THE REGION THIS EVENING. WILL USE
THE SUPER BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINT. WITH DATA OUTAGE
WILL MANUALLY ADJUST WINDS. DO NOT EXPECT ANY QPF TODAY OR
TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A RETURN TO A WET PATTERN LOOKS TO BE HEADING OUR WAY.

TUESDAY WILL BE A DRY DAY FOR THE MOST PART W/INCREASING CLOUDS
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION FROM QUEBEC WHILE LOW PRES MOVES OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES
TOWARD THE NE STATES. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES ACROSS
THE REGION WHILE THE LOW TO SOUTH IS FORECAST TO REDEVELOP AS IT
HITS THE ATLC SEABOARD. RAIN WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN
PART OF THE STATE BY TUESDAY EVENING AND THEN GRADUALLY SPREAD
NORTHWARD TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE RAIN WILL CONTINUE
RIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE RAIN COULD ALSO BE HEAVY AT TIMES
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE DOWNEAST AND UPSLOPE FAVORED REGIONS SUCH AS
PENOBSCOT, PISCATAQUIS AND EVEN WASHINGTON COUNTY. THIS WILL BE
DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF UPPER LEVEL DIFLUENCE AND DEFORMATION
BANDING AS SHOWN BY THE NAM AND ECMWF. PLUS, THERE IS A SUSTAINED
ESE FETCH FROM 925-700MBS OVERRUNNING A ENE FLOW IN THE BLYR. THE
NAM AND ECMWF APPEAR TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT W/SHOWING THIS HEAVY
RAIN POTENTIAL THROUGH THIS TERM WHILE THE GFS IS NOT AS
CONCENTRATED W/IT PRECIP BUT DOES POINT TO THE BANDING GIVEN IS
STRONG FORCING SHOWN AT 700MBS. ATTM, DECIDED TO FOLLOW THE
DAYCREW`S ASSESSMENT AND SHOW RAIN CHANCES INCREASING TO ABOVE 80%
BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALL THE WAY INTO NORTHERN MAINE. QPF WAS
ADJUSTED UPWARDS BY AT LEAST 0.25" ACROSS THE DOWNEAST AND CENTRAL
HIGHLANDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY DUE TO THE DEFORMATION BANDING AND
UPPER DIFLUENCE POTENTIAL.

DAYTIME TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS PERIOD ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR
NORMAL WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE RUNNING ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RAIN, HEAVY AT TIMES TO CONTINUE RIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AND
THEN PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO A SHOWERY NATURE BEFORE
ENDING EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

LOW PRES WILL BECOME VERTICALLY STACKED AS MENTIONED BY THE
DAYCREW AND SLOWLY LIFT NNE ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA AND THEN INTO
MARITIMES EARLY SATURDAY. DEFORMATION BANDING AND UPPER DIFLUENCE
WILL LIFT ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE ON THURSDAY W/THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL. AS STATED ABOVE, THE RAIN WILL TRANSITION TO
SHOWERS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN WIND DOWN FRIDAY NIGHT. THE
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO STORM TOTALS HITTING 2 TO 4
INCHES ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS. THIS
COULD LEAD TO SOME FLOODING CONCERN GIVEN THE RAINFALL THAT THE
REGION RECEIVED LAST WEEK AND INTO THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL BE
ADDRESSED IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

THE WEEKEND LOOKS TO BE UNSETTLED WITH MORE SHOWERS LATER SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION W/A RETURN TO
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES DROPPING BELOW NORMAL. THERE IS STILL TIME TO
ASSESS THIS FURTHER W/THE LATER MODEL RUNS.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: VFR GOING TO MVFR AND THEN IFR FOR KBGR AND KBHB
LATER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE NORTHERN TERMINALS WILL SEE VFR
HANGING ON THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ON TUESDAY W/MVFR BY LATER
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE NORTHERN TERMINALS ARE EXPECTED
TO SEE CONDITIONS DROP TO IFR BY LATER IN THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY
W/ALL TERMINALS DOWN TO IFR FOR THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: HAVE USED NAM12 FOR SUSTAINED WIND GRIDS. FOR WAVES:
EXPECT LOCAL WIND WAVE TO BE PRIMARY WAVE GROUP. LOCAL WINDS
CURRENTLY OFF-SHORE WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST LATER IN THE PERIOD.
SECONDARY LONG PERIOD WAVE SYSTEM PERSIST FROM THE SOUTHEAST 2-3
FEET/12 SECONDS BASE ON SPECTRAL DATA FROM 44027. EXPECT THIS WAVE
SYSTEM TO PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT. HAVE USE 0300Z RUN OF NEAR
SHORE WAVE MODEL TO INITIALIZE GRIDS. WILL LOWER WAVES FIRST 6
HOURS AS BOUNDARY CONDITIONS GOING INTO MODEL APPEAR TO BE A
LITTLE HIGH. PLAN TO EXTEND SCA WITH COMBINATION WIND GUSTS AND
BUILDING COMBINED SEA LATER IN PERIOD AS WINDS BECOME MORE
SOUTHWEST (LONGER FETCH) AND LONG PERIOD WAVE SYSTEM PERSISTS.


SHORT TERM: GALE FORCE WINDS COULD BE SEEN ON WEDNESDAY AS THE
PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN HIGH PRES TO THE N AND LOW PRES TO
THE S. A PROLONGED ENE FLOW WILL DEFINITELY BRING IN LARGER WAVES
& WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO SUSTAINED 25 KTS W/GUSTS
HITTING 35 KTS ON WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE PRES
GRADIENT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL LOOSEN AS THE LOW LIFTS ACROSS THE
GULF OF MAINE WATERS ON THURSDAY. DECIDED TO BRING WAVE HEIGHTS UP
TO A RANGE 10-12 FT WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

ATTM, WE ARE NOT LOOKING FOR ANY OVERWASH PROBLEMS FOR THE COAST
AS THE FLOW FOR ONE WILL BE PRETTY MUCH PARALLEL TO THE COAST AND
2ND, WAVE PERIODS WILL NOT BE HIGH ENOUGH DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...NORTON
SHORT TERM...HEWITT
LONG TERM...HEWITT
AVIATION...NORTON/HEWITT
MARINE...NORTON/HEWITT






000
FXUS61 KGYX 201048
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
648 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE TODAY. LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AND WILL INTENSIFY SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND
TUESDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL MEANDER OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND COAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE DRIFTING OFF TO
THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
7AM UPDATE... ENDED FREEZE WARNING AND UPDATED FOR CURRENT OBS.

STUBBORN CLOUD COVER AND A PERSISTENT PRESSURE
GRADIENT HAVE KEPT WINDS AND TEMPERATURES UP OVERNIGHT. SOME
SHELTERED LOCATIONS MAY STILL DECOUPLE AND SEE TEMPERATURE DROP
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS BUT MANY LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING. WILL ALLOW FREEZE WARNING TO EXPIRE AT SUNRISE AS
SCHEDULED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AS THE WEAK HIGH MOVES OUT
AND A LOW BEGINS TO APPROACH ON TUESDAY. THE WINDS WILL FINALLY
BEING TO DIMINISH AS THE GRADIENT SHIFTS OFFSHORE WITH THE WEAK
RIDGING. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD WITH WIDESPREAD
CLOUD COVER KEEPING TEMPERATURES UP. TUESDAY THE WARM FRONT AHEAD
OF THE LOW WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA
BY THE END OF THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
SEASONABLE IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EAST COAST CYCLONGENESIS WILL TAKE PLACE ON SCHEDULE TUESDAY
NIGHT ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COASTLINE. THE 00Z MODEL SUITE STILL
HAS SOME DISAGREEMENT AMONGST ITS MEMBERS. AFTER MODEL CONSENSUS
INDICATED A JOG TO THE NORTH WITH THE CUTOFF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
AND SURFACE LOW...TONIGHTS MODELS ARE NOW DIGGING THE TROUGH
FURTHER TO THE SOUTH...SIMILAR TO RUNS LATE LAST WEEK. THE
STRONGER/MORE INTENSE DIGGING SOLUTION APPEARS TO BE REASONABLE
WHEN VIEWING THIS MORNINGS LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. AS OF
07Z...THE CENTER OF THE CIRCULATION OF THE UPPER LOW WAS OVER FAR
WESTERN MICHIGAN AND DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD.

CYCLOGENESIS FURTHER TO OUR SOUTH WOULD ALLOW THE DRY SLOT TO STAY
OFFSHORE UNTIL THURSDAY...THEREBY UPPING OUR STORM TOTALS RAINFALL
FORECASTS. FOR NOW...WITH A PERSISTENT AND MOIST NORTHEAST
FLOW...WE ARE EXPECTING TWO TO THREE INCHES TOTAL RAINFALL OVER
THE REGION...WITH LOCALIZED AREAS UP TO FOUR INCHES...ESPECIALLY
OVER NORTHEAST FACING HIGHER TERRAIN.

STEADY PRECIP ENDS ON FRIDAY AS THE SYSTEM LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY... WITH MVFR CIELINGS
MONDAY NIGHT. BY TUESDAY NIGHT IFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
THE REGION.

LONG TERM...PROLONGED PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS WITH LOCAL IFR AT
TIMES LATE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...BEFORE CONDITIONS SLOWLY
BEGIN TO IMPROVE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM... WINDS CONTINUE TO GUST TO 25KTS TO 30KTS ACROSS THE
OUTER WATERS THIS MORNING... BUT WILL DIMINISH BY MIDDAY. EXPECT
SCA TO BE DROPPED AROUND MID DAY... WAVES REMAIN BELOW SCA
CRITERIA THOUGH TUESDAY.

LONG TERM...GALE FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE
UPCOMING COASTAL LOW WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINSTEM RIVERS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY MIDWEEK. MOST
SMALL RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL LIKELY HAVE SHARP RISES AS WELL.
HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL MAINE AND
THE NORTHEAST FACING HIGHER TERRAIN. AGAIN...MOSTLY 2-3 INCHES QPF
WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS NEAR OR OVER 4 INCHES.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
COASTAL FLOODING IS A POSSIBILITY AS THE SYSTEM MAKES A LOOP OVER
LONG ISLAND NEW YORK ON THURSDAY. WAVE RUNUP TOOLS INDICATING SOME
BEACH EROSION ACROSS MUCH OF OUR COASTLINE...ALONG WITH SPLASH-
OVER AND OVERWASH. NEARSHORE WAVES SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE 10 TO 15
FOOT RANGE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CURTIS
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
HYDROLOGY...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



000
FXUS61 KGYX 201048
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
648 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE TODAY. LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AND WILL INTENSIFY SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND
TUESDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL MEANDER OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND COAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE DRIFTING OFF TO
THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
7AM UPDATE... ENDED FREEZE WARNING AND UPDATED FOR CURRENT OBS.

STUBBORN CLOUD COVER AND A PERSISTENT PRESSURE
GRADIENT HAVE KEPT WINDS AND TEMPERATURES UP OVERNIGHT. SOME
SHELTERED LOCATIONS MAY STILL DECOUPLE AND SEE TEMPERATURE DROP
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS BUT MANY LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING. WILL ALLOW FREEZE WARNING TO EXPIRE AT SUNRISE AS
SCHEDULED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AS THE WEAK HIGH MOVES OUT
AND A LOW BEGINS TO APPROACH ON TUESDAY. THE WINDS WILL FINALLY
BEING TO DIMINISH AS THE GRADIENT SHIFTS OFFSHORE WITH THE WEAK
RIDGING. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD WITH WIDESPREAD
CLOUD COVER KEEPING TEMPERATURES UP. TUESDAY THE WARM FRONT AHEAD
OF THE LOW WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA
BY THE END OF THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
SEASONABLE IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EAST COAST CYCLONGENESIS WILL TAKE PLACE ON SCHEDULE TUESDAY
NIGHT ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COASTLINE. THE 00Z MODEL SUITE STILL
HAS SOME DISAGREEMENT AMONGST ITS MEMBERS. AFTER MODEL CONSENSUS
INDICATED A JOG TO THE NORTH WITH THE CUTOFF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
AND SURFACE LOW...TONIGHTS MODELS ARE NOW DIGGING THE TROUGH
FURTHER TO THE SOUTH...SIMILAR TO RUNS LATE LAST WEEK. THE
STRONGER/MORE INTENSE DIGGING SOLUTION APPEARS TO BE REASONABLE
WHEN VIEWING THIS MORNINGS LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. AS OF
07Z...THE CENTER OF THE CIRCULATION OF THE UPPER LOW WAS OVER FAR
WESTERN MICHIGAN AND DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD.

CYCLOGENESIS FURTHER TO OUR SOUTH WOULD ALLOW THE DRY SLOT TO STAY
OFFSHORE UNTIL THURSDAY...THEREBY UPPING OUR STORM TOTALS RAINFALL
FORECASTS. FOR NOW...WITH A PERSISTENT AND MOIST NORTHEAST
FLOW...WE ARE EXPECTING TWO TO THREE INCHES TOTAL RAINFALL OVER
THE REGION...WITH LOCALIZED AREAS UP TO FOUR INCHES...ESPECIALLY
OVER NORTHEAST FACING HIGHER TERRAIN.

STEADY PRECIP ENDS ON FRIDAY AS THE SYSTEM LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY... WITH MVFR CIELINGS
MONDAY NIGHT. BY TUESDAY NIGHT IFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
THE REGION.

LONG TERM...PROLONGED PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS WITH LOCAL IFR AT
TIMES LATE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...BEFORE CONDITIONS SLOWLY
BEGIN TO IMPROVE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM... WINDS CONTINUE TO GUST TO 25KTS TO 30KTS ACROSS THE
OUTER WATERS THIS MORNING... BUT WILL DIMINISH BY MIDDAY. EXPECT
SCA TO BE DROPPED AROUND MID DAY... WAVES REMAIN BELOW SCA
CRITERIA THOUGH TUESDAY.

LONG TERM...GALE FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE
UPCOMING COASTAL LOW WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINSTEM RIVERS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY MIDWEEK. MOST
SMALL RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL LIKELY HAVE SHARP RISES AS WELL.
HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL MAINE AND
THE NORTHEAST FACING HIGHER TERRAIN. AGAIN...MOSTLY 2-3 INCHES QPF
WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS NEAR OR OVER 4 INCHES.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
COASTAL FLOODING IS A POSSIBILITY AS THE SYSTEM MAKES A LOOP OVER
LONG ISLAND NEW YORK ON THURSDAY. WAVE RUNUP TOOLS INDICATING SOME
BEACH EROSION ACROSS MUCH OF OUR COASTLINE...ALONG WITH SPLASH-
OVER AND OVERWASH. NEARSHORE WAVES SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE 10 TO 15
FOOT RANGE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CURTIS
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
HYDROLOGY...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KCAR 201035
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
635 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. LOW PRESSURE
WILL INTENSIFY SOUTH OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY AND LIFT SLOWLY
NORTHWARD WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE 0635 EDT: HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPERATURE... WIND AND DEW POINT.
NO OTHER CHANGES.

INTENSE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MARITIMES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY
TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY. AT THE SAME TIME HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN FROM THE WEST AND CREST OVER THE REGION THIS EVENING. WILL USE
THE SUPER BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINT. WITH DATA OUTAGE
WILL MANUALLY ADJUST WINDS. DO NOT EXPECT ANY QPF TODAY OR
TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A RETURN TO A WET PATTERN LOOKS TO BE HEADING OUR WAY.

TUESDAY WILL BE A DRY DAY FOR THE MOST PART W/INCREASING CLOUDS
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION FROM QUEBEC WHILE LOW PRES MOVES OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES
TOWARD THE NE STATES. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES ACROSS
THE REGION WHILE THE LOW TO SOUTH IS FORECAST TO REDEVELOP AS IT
HITS THE ATLC SEABOARD. RAIN WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN
PART OF THE STATE BY TUESDAY EVENING AND THEN GRADUALLY SPREAD
NORTHWARD TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE RAIN WILL CONTINUE
RIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE RAIN COULD ALSO BE HEAVY AT TIMES
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE DOWNEAST AND UPSLOPE FAVORED REGIONS SUCH AS
PENOBSCOT, PISCATAQUIS AND EVEN WASHINGTON COUNTY. THIS WILL BE
DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF UPPER LEVEL DIFLUENCE AND DEFORMATION
BANDING AS SHOWN BY THE NAM AND ECMWF. PLUS, THERE IS A SUSTAINED
ESE FETCH FROM 925-700MBS OVERRUNNING A ENE FLOW IN THE BLYR. THE
NAM AND ECMWF APPEAR TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT W/SHOWING THIS HEAVY
RAIN POTENTIAL THROUGH THIS TERM WHILE THE GFS IS NOT AS
CONCENTRATED W/IT PRECIP BUT DOES POINT TO THE BANDING GIVEN IS
STRONG FORCING SHOWN AT 700MBS. ATTM, DECIDED TO FOLLOW THE
DAYCREW`S ASSESSMENT AND SHOW RAIN CHANCES INCREASING TO ABOVE 80%
BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALL THE WAY INTO NORTHERN MAINE. QPF WAS
ADJUSTED UPWARDS BY AT LEAST 0.25" ACROSS THE DOWNEAST AND CENTRAL
HIGHLANDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY DUE TO THE DEFORMATION BANDING AND
UPPER DIFLUENCE POTENTIAL.

DAYTIME TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS PERIOD ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR
NORMAL WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE RUNNING ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RAIN, HEAVY AT TIMES TO CONTINUE RIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AND
THEN PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO A SHOWERY NATURE BEFORE
ENDING EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

LOW PRES WILL BECOME VERTICALLY STACKED AS MENTIONED BY THE
DAYCREW AND SLOWLY LIFT NNE ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA AND THEN INTO
MARITIMES EARLY SATURDAY. DEFORMATION BANDING AND UPPER DIFLUENCE
WILL LIFT ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE ON THURSDAY W/THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL. AS STATED ABOVE, THE RAIN WILL TRANSITION TO
SHOWERS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN WIND DOWN FRIDAY NIGHT. THE
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO STORM TOTALS HITTING 2 TO 4
INCHES ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS. THIS
COULD LEAD TO SOME FLOODING CONCERN GIVEN THE RAINFALL THAT THE
REGION RECEIVED LAST WEEK AND INTO THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL BE
ADDRESSED IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

THE WEEKEND LOOKS TO BE UNSETTLED WITH MORE SHOWERS LATER SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION W/A RETURN TO
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES DROPPING BELOW NORMAL. THERE IS STILL TIME TO
ASSESS THIS FURTHER W/THE LATER MODEL RUNS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: VFR GOING TO MVFR AND THEN IFR FOR KBGR AND KBHB
LATER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE NORTHERN TERMINALS WILL SEE VFR
HANGING ON THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ON TUESDAY W/MVFR BY LATER
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE NORTHERN TERMINALS ARE EXPECTED
TO SEE CONDITIONS DROP TO IFR BY LATER IN THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY
W/ALL TERMINALS DOWN TO IFR FOR THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: HAVE USED NAM12 FOR SUSTAINED WIND GRIDS. FOR WAVES:
EXPECT LOCAL WIND WAVE TO BE PRIMARY WAVE GROUP. LOCAL WINDS
CURRENTLY OFF-SHORE WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST LATER IN THE PERIOD.
SECONDARY LONG PERIOD WAVE SYSTEM PERSIST FROM THE SOUTHEAST 2-3
FEET/12 SECONDS BASE ON SPECTRAL DATA FROM 44027. EXPECT THIS WAVE
SYSTEM TO PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT. HAVE USE 0300Z RUN OF NEAR
SHORE WAVE MODEL TO INITIALIZE GRIDS. WILL LOWER WAVES FIRST 6
HOURS AS BOUNDARY CONDITIONS GOING INTO MODEL APPEAR TO BE A
LITTLE HIGH. PLAN TO EXTEND SCA WITH COMBINATION WIND GUSTS AND
BUILDING COMBINED SEA LATER IN PERIOD AS WINDS BECOME MORE
SOUTHWEST (LONGER FETCH) AND LONG PERIOD WAVE SYSTEM PERSISTS.


SHORT TERM: GALE FORCE WINDS COULD BE SEEN ON WEDNESDAY AS THE
PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN HIGH PRES TO THE N AND LOW PRES TO
THE S. A PROLONGED ENE FLOW WILL DEFINITELY BRING IN LARGER WAVES
& WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO SUSTAINED 25 KTS W/GUSTS
HITTING 35 KTS ON WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE PRES
GRADIENT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL LOOSEN AS THE LOW LIFTS ACROSS THE
GULF OF MAINE WATERS ON THURSDAY. DECIDED TO BRING WAVE HEIGHTS UP
TO A RANGE 10-12 FT WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

ATTM, WE ARE NOT LOOKING FOR ANY OVERWASH PROBLEMS FOR THE COAST
AS THE FLOW FOR ONE WILL BE PRETTY MUCH PARALLEL TO THE COAST AND
2ND, WAVE PERIODS WILL NOT BE HIGH ENOUGH DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...MIGNONE
SHORT TERM...HEWITT
LONG TERM...HEWITT
AVIATION...MIGNONE/HEWITT
MARINE...MIGNONE/HEWITT







000
FXUS61 KCAR 201035
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
635 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. LOW PRESSURE
WILL INTENSIFY SOUTH OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY AND LIFT SLOWLY
NORTHWARD WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE 0635 EDT: HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPERATURE... WIND AND DEW POINT.
NO OTHER CHANGES.

INTENSE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MARITIMES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY
TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY. AT THE SAME TIME HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN FROM THE WEST AND CREST OVER THE REGION THIS EVENING. WILL USE
THE SUPER BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINT. WITH DATA OUTAGE
WILL MANUALLY ADJUST WINDS. DO NOT EXPECT ANY QPF TODAY OR
TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A RETURN TO A WET PATTERN LOOKS TO BE HEADING OUR WAY.

TUESDAY WILL BE A DRY DAY FOR THE MOST PART W/INCREASING CLOUDS
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION FROM QUEBEC WHILE LOW PRES MOVES OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES
TOWARD THE NE STATES. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES ACROSS
THE REGION WHILE THE LOW TO SOUTH IS FORECAST TO REDEVELOP AS IT
HITS THE ATLC SEABOARD. RAIN WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN
PART OF THE STATE BY TUESDAY EVENING AND THEN GRADUALLY SPREAD
NORTHWARD TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE RAIN WILL CONTINUE
RIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE RAIN COULD ALSO BE HEAVY AT TIMES
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE DOWNEAST AND UPSLOPE FAVORED REGIONS SUCH AS
PENOBSCOT, PISCATAQUIS AND EVEN WASHINGTON COUNTY. THIS WILL BE
DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF UPPER LEVEL DIFLUENCE AND DEFORMATION
BANDING AS SHOWN BY THE NAM AND ECMWF. PLUS, THERE IS A SUSTAINED
ESE FETCH FROM 925-700MBS OVERRUNNING A ENE FLOW IN THE BLYR. THE
NAM AND ECMWF APPEAR TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT W/SHOWING THIS HEAVY
RAIN POTENTIAL THROUGH THIS TERM WHILE THE GFS IS NOT AS
CONCENTRATED W/IT PRECIP BUT DOES POINT TO THE BANDING GIVEN IS
STRONG FORCING SHOWN AT 700MBS. ATTM, DECIDED TO FOLLOW THE
DAYCREW`S ASSESSMENT AND SHOW RAIN CHANCES INCREASING TO ABOVE 80%
BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALL THE WAY INTO NORTHERN MAINE. QPF WAS
ADJUSTED UPWARDS BY AT LEAST 0.25" ACROSS THE DOWNEAST AND CENTRAL
HIGHLANDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY DUE TO THE DEFORMATION BANDING AND
UPPER DIFLUENCE POTENTIAL.

DAYTIME TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS PERIOD ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR
NORMAL WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE RUNNING ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RAIN, HEAVY AT TIMES TO CONTINUE RIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AND
THEN PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO A SHOWERY NATURE BEFORE
ENDING EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

LOW PRES WILL BECOME VERTICALLY STACKED AS MENTIONED BY THE
DAYCREW AND SLOWLY LIFT NNE ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA AND THEN INTO
MARITIMES EARLY SATURDAY. DEFORMATION BANDING AND UPPER DIFLUENCE
WILL LIFT ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE ON THURSDAY W/THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL. AS STATED ABOVE, THE RAIN WILL TRANSITION TO
SHOWERS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN WIND DOWN FRIDAY NIGHT. THE
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO STORM TOTALS HITTING 2 TO 4
INCHES ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS. THIS
COULD LEAD TO SOME FLOODING CONCERN GIVEN THE RAINFALL THAT THE
REGION RECEIVED LAST WEEK AND INTO THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL BE
ADDRESSED IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

THE WEEKEND LOOKS TO BE UNSETTLED WITH MORE SHOWERS LATER SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION W/A RETURN TO
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES DROPPING BELOW NORMAL. THERE IS STILL TIME TO
ASSESS THIS FURTHER W/THE LATER MODEL RUNS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: VFR GOING TO MVFR AND THEN IFR FOR KBGR AND KBHB
LATER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE NORTHERN TERMINALS WILL SEE VFR
HANGING ON THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ON TUESDAY W/MVFR BY LATER
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE NORTHERN TERMINALS ARE EXPECTED
TO SEE CONDITIONS DROP TO IFR BY LATER IN THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY
W/ALL TERMINALS DOWN TO IFR FOR THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: HAVE USED NAM12 FOR SUSTAINED WIND GRIDS. FOR WAVES:
EXPECT LOCAL WIND WAVE TO BE PRIMARY WAVE GROUP. LOCAL WINDS
CURRENTLY OFF-SHORE WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST LATER IN THE PERIOD.
SECONDARY LONG PERIOD WAVE SYSTEM PERSIST FROM THE SOUTHEAST 2-3
FEET/12 SECONDS BASE ON SPECTRAL DATA FROM 44027. EXPECT THIS WAVE
SYSTEM TO PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT. HAVE USE 0300Z RUN OF NEAR
SHORE WAVE MODEL TO INITIALIZE GRIDS. WILL LOWER WAVES FIRST 6
HOURS AS BOUNDARY CONDITIONS GOING INTO MODEL APPEAR TO BE A
LITTLE HIGH. PLAN TO EXTEND SCA WITH COMBINATION WIND GUSTS AND
BUILDING COMBINED SEA LATER IN PERIOD AS WINDS BECOME MORE
SOUTHWEST (LONGER FETCH) AND LONG PERIOD WAVE SYSTEM PERSISTS.


SHORT TERM: GALE FORCE WINDS COULD BE SEEN ON WEDNESDAY AS THE
PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN HIGH PRES TO THE N AND LOW PRES TO
THE S. A PROLONGED ENE FLOW WILL DEFINITELY BRING IN LARGER WAVES
& WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO SUSTAINED 25 KTS W/GUSTS
HITTING 35 KTS ON WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE PRES
GRADIENT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL LOOSEN AS THE LOW LIFTS ACROSS THE
GULF OF MAINE WATERS ON THURSDAY. DECIDED TO BRING WAVE HEIGHTS UP
TO A RANGE 10-12 FT WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

ATTM, WE ARE NOT LOOKING FOR ANY OVERWASH PROBLEMS FOR THE COAST
AS THE FLOW FOR ONE WILL BE PRETTY MUCH PARALLEL TO THE COAST AND
2ND, WAVE PERIODS WILL NOT BE HIGH ENOUGH DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...MIGNONE
SHORT TERM...HEWITT
LONG TERM...HEWITT
AVIATION...MIGNONE/HEWITT
MARINE...MIGNONE/HEWITT






000
FXUS61 KCAR 200803
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
403 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. LOW PRESSURE
WILL INTENSIFY SOUTH OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY AND LIFT SLOWLY
NORTHWARD WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
INTENSE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MARITIMES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY
TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY. AT THE SAME TIME HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN FROM THE WEST AND CREST OVER THE REGION THIS EVENING. WILL USE
THE SUPER BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINT. WITH DATA OUTAGE
WILL MANUALLY ADJUST WINDS. DO NOT EXPECT ANY QPF TODAY OR
TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A RETURN TO A WET PATTERN LOOKS TO BE HEADING OUR WAY.

TUESDAY WILL BE A DRY DAY FOR THE MOST PART W/INCREASING CLOUDS
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION FROM QUEBEC WHILE LOW PRES MOVES OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES
TOWARD THE NE STATES. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES ACROSS
THE REGION WHILE THE LOW TO SOUTH IS FORECAST TO REDEVELOP AS IT
HITS THE ATLC SEABOARD. RAIN WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN
PART OF THE STATE BY TUESDAY EVENING AND THEN GRADUALLY SPREAD
NORTHWARD TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE RAIN WILL CONTINUE
RIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE RAIN COULD ALSO BE HEAVY AT TIMES
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE DOWNEAST AND UPSLOPE FAVORED REGIONS SUCH AS
PENOBSCOT, PISCATAQUIS AND EVEN WASHINGTON COUNTY. THIS WILL BE
DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF UPPER LEVEL DIFLUENCE AND DEFORMATION
BANDING AS SHOWN BY THE NAM AND ECMWF. PLUS, THERE IS A SUSTAINED
ESE FETCH FROM 925-700MBS OVERRUNNING A ENE FLOW IN THE BLYR. THE
NAM AND ECMWF APPEAR TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT W/SHOWING THIS HEAVY
RAIN POTENTIAL THROUGH THIS TERM WHILE THE GFS IS NOT AS
CONCENTRATED W/IT PRECIP BUT DOES POINT TO THE BANDING GIVEN IS
STRONG FORCING SHOWN AT 700MBS. ATTM, DECIDED TO FOLLOW THE
DAYCREW`S ASSESSMENT AND SHOW RAIN CHANCES INCREASING TO ABOVE 80%
BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALL THE WAY INTO NORTHERN MAINE. QPF WAS
ADJUSTED UPWARDS BY AT LEAST 0.25" ACROSS THE DOWNEAST AND CENTRAL
HIGHLANDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY DUE TO THE DEFORMATION BANDING AND
UPPER DIFLUENCE POTENTIAL.

DAYTIME TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS PERIOD ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR
NORMAL WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE RUNNING ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RAIN, HEAVY AT TIMES TO CONTINUE RIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AND
THEN PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO A SHOWERY NATURE BEFORE
ENDING EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

LOW PRES WILL BECOME VERTICALLY STACKED AS MENTIONED BY THE
DAYCREW AND SLOWLY LIFT NNE ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA AND THEN INTO
MARITIMES EARLY SATURDAY. DEFORMATION BANDING AND UPPER DIFLUENCE
WILL LIFT ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE ON THURSDAY W/THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL. AS STATED ABOVE, THE RAIN WILL TRANSITION TO
SHOWERS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN WIND DOWN FRIDAY NIGHT. THE
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO STORM TOTALS HITTING 2 TO 4
INCHES ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS. THIS
COULD LEAD TO SOME FLOODING CONCERN GIVEN THE RAINFALL THAT THE
REGION RECEIVED LAST WEEK AND INTO THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL BE
ADDRESSED IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

THE WEEKEND LOOKS TO BE UNSETTLED WITH MORE SHOWERS LATER SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION W/A RETURN TO
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES DROPPING BELOW NORMAL. THERE IS STILL TIME TO
ASSESS THIS FURTHER W/THE LATER MODEL RUNS.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: VFR GOING TO MVFR AND THEN IFR FOR KBGR AND KBHB
LATER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE NORTHERN TERMINALS WILL SEE VFR
HANGING ON THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ON TUESDAY W/MVFR BY LATER
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE NORTHERN TERMINALS ARE EXPECTED
TO SEE CONDITIONS DROP TO IFR BY LATER IN THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY
W/ALL TERMINALS DOWN TO IFR FOR THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: HAVE USED NAM12 FOR SUSTAINED WIND GRIDS. FOR WAVES:
EXPECT LOCAL WIND WAVE TO BE PRIMARY WAVE GROUP. LOCAL WINDS
CURRENTLY OFF-SHORE WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST LATER IN THE PERIOD.
SECONDARY LONG PERIOD WAVE SYSTEM PERSIST FROM THE SOUTHEAST 2-3
FEET/12 SECONDS BASE ON SPECTRAL DATA FROM 44027. EXPECT THIS WAVE
SYSTEM TO PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT. HAVE USE 0300Z RUN OF NEAR
SHORE WAVE MODEL TO INITIALIZE GRIDS. WILL LOWER WAVES FIRST 6
HOURS AS BOUNDARY CONDITIONS GOING INTO MODEL APPEAR TO BE A
LITTLE HIGH. PLAN TO EXTEND SCA WITH COMBINATION WIND GUSTS AND
BUILDING COMBINED SEA LATER IN PERIOD AS WINDS BECOME MORE
SOUTHWEST (LONGER FETCH) AND LONG PERIOD WAVE SYSTEM PERSISTS.


SHORT TERM: GALE FORCE WINDS COULD BE SEEN ON WEDNESDAY AS THE
PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN HIGH PRES TO THE N AND LOW PRES TO
THE S. A PROLONGED ENE FLOW WILL DEFINITELY BRING IN LARGER WAVES
& WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO SUSTAINED 25 KTS W/GUSTS
HITTING 35 KTS ON WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE PRES
GRADIENT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL LOOSEN AS THE LOW LIFTS ACROSS THE
GULF OF MAINE WATERS ON THURSDAY. DECIDED TO BRING WAVE HEIGHTS UP
TO A RANGE 10-12 FT WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

ATTM, WE ARE NOT LOOKING FOR ANY OVERWASH PROBLEMS FOR THE COAST
AS THE FLOW FOR ONE WILL BE PRETTY MUCH PARALLEL TO THE COAST AND
2ND, WAVE PERIODS WILL NOT BE HIGH ENOUGH DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...MIGNONE
SHORT TERM...HEWITT
LONG TERM...HEWITT
AVIATION...MIGNONE/HEWITT
MARINE...MIGNONE/HEWITT









000
FXUS61 KCAR 200803
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
403 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. LOW PRESSURE
WILL INTENSIFY SOUTH OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY AND LIFT SLOWLY
NORTHWARD WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
INTENSE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MARITIMES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY
TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY. AT THE SAME TIME HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN FROM THE WEST AND CREST OVER THE REGION THIS EVENING. WILL USE
THE SUPER BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINT. WITH DATA OUTAGE
WILL MANUALLY ADJUST WINDS. DO NOT EXPECT ANY QPF TODAY OR
TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A RETURN TO A WET PATTERN LOOKS TO BE HEADING OUR WAY.

TUESDAY WILL BE A DRY DAY FOR THE MOST PART W/INCREASING CLOUDS
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION FROM QUEBEC WHILE LOW PRES MOVES OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES
TOWARD THE NE STATES. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES ACROSS
THE REGION WHILE THE LOW TO SOUTH IS FORECAST TO REDEVELOP AS IT
HITS THE ATLC SEABOARD. RAIN WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN
PART OF THE STATE BY TUESDAY EVENING AND THEN GRADUALLY SPREAD
NORTHWARD TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE RAIN WILL CONTINUE
RIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE RAIN COULD ALSO BE HEAVY AT TIMES
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE DOWNEAST AND UPSLOPE FAVORED REGIONS SUCH AS
PENOBSCOT, PISCATAQUIS AND EVEN WASHINGTON COUNTY. THIS WILL BE
DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF UPPER LEVEL DIFLUENCE AND DEFORMATION
BANDING AS SHOWN BY THE NAM AND ECMWF. PLUS, THERE IS A SUSTAINED
ESE FETCH FROM 925-700MBS OVERRUNNING A ENE FLOW IN THE BLYR. THE
NAM AND ECMWF APPEAR TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT W/SHOWING THIS HEAVY
RAIN POTENTIAL THROUGH THIS TERM WHILE THE GFS IS NOT AS
CONCENTRATED W/IT PRECIP BUT DOES POINT TO THE BANDING GIVEN IS
STRONG FORCING SHOWN AT 700MBS. ATTM, DECIDED TO FOLLOW THE
DAYCREW`S ASSESSMENT AND SHOW RAIN CHANCES INCREASING TO ABOVE 80%
BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALL THE WAY INTO NORTHERN MAINE. QPF WAS
ADJUSTED UPWARDS BY AT LEAST 0.25" ACROSS THE DOWNEAST AND CENTRAL
HIGHLANDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY DUE TO THE DEFORMATION BANDING AND
UPPER DIFLUENCE POTENTIAL.

DAYTIME TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS PERIOD ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR
NORMAL WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE RUNNING ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RAIN, HEAVY AT TIMES TO CONTINUE RIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AND
THEN PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO A SHOWERY NATURE BEFORE
ENDING EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

LOW PRES WILL BECOME VERTICALLY STACKED AS MENTIONED BY THE
DAYCREW AND SLOWLY LIFT NNE ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA AND THEN INTO
MARITIMES EARLY SATURDAY. DEFORMATION BANDING AND UPPER DIFLUENCE
WILL LIFT ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE ON THURSDAY W/THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL. AS STATED ABOVE, THE RAIN WILL TRANSITION TO
SHOWERS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN WIND DOWN FRIDAY NIGHT. THE
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO STORM TOTALS HITTING 2 TO 4
INCHES ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS. THIS
COULD LEAD TO SOME FLOODING CONCERN GIVEN THE RAINFALL THAT THE
REGION RECEIVED LAST WEEK AND INTO THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL BE
ADDRESSED IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

THE WEEKEND LOOKS TO BE UNSETTLED WITH MORE SHOWERS LATER SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION W/A RETURN TO
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES DROPPING BELOW NORMAL. THERE IS STILL TIME TO
ASSESS THIS FURTHER W/THE LATER MODEL RUNS.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: VFR GOING TO MVFR AND THEN IFR FOR KBGR AND KBHB
LATER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE NORTHERN TERMINALS WILL SEE VFR
HANGING ON THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ON TUESDAY W/MVFR BY LATER
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE NORTHERN TERMINALS ARE EXPECTED
TO SEE CONDITIONS DROP TO IFR BY LATER IN THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY
W/ALL TERMINALS DOWN TO IFR FOR THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: HAVE USED NAM12 FOR SUSTAINED WIND GRIDS. FOR WAVES:
EXPECT LOCAL WIND WAVE TO BE PRIMARY WAVE GROUP. LOCAL WINDS
CURRENTLY OFF-SHORE WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST LATER IN THE PERIOD.
SECONDARY LONG PERIOD WAVE SYSTEM PERSIST FROM THE SOUTHEAST 2-3
FEET/12 SECONDS BASE ON SPECTRAL DATA FROM 44027. EXPECT THIS WAVE
SYSTEM TO PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT. HAVE USE 0300Z RUN OF NEAR
SHORE WAVE MODEL TO INITIALIZE GRIDS. WILL LOWER WAVES FIRST 6
HOURS AS BOUNDARY CONDITIONS GOING INTO MODEL APPEAR TO BE A
LITTLE HIGH. PLAN TO EXTEND SCA WITH COMBINATION WIND GUSTS AND
BUILDING COMBINED SEA LATER IN PERIOD AS WINDS BECOME MORE
SOUTHWEST (LONGER FETCH) AND LONG PERIOD WAVE SYSTEM PERSISTS.


SHORT TERM: GALE FORCE WINDS COULD BE SEEN ON WEDNESDAY AS THE
PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN HIGH PRES TO THE N AND LOW PRES TO
THE S. A PROLONGED ENE FLOW WILL DEFINITELY BRING IN LARGER WAVES
& WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO SUSTAINED 25 KTS W/GUSTS
HITTING 35 KTS ON WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE PRES
GRADIENT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL LOOSEN AS THE LOW LIFTS ACROSS THE
GULF OF MAINE WATERS ON THURSDAY. DECIDED TO BRING WAVE HEIGHTS UP
TO A RANGE 10-12 FT WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

ATTM, WE ARE NOT LOOKING FOR ANY OVERWASH PROBLEMS FOR THE COAST
AS THE FLOW FOR ONE WILL BE PRETTY MUCH PARALLEL TO THE COAST AND
2ND, WAVE PERIODS WILL NOT BE HIGH ENOUGH DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...MIGNONE
SHORT TERM...HEWITT
LONG TERM...HEWITT
AVIATION...MIGNONE/HEWITT
MARINE...MIGNONE/HEWITT









000
FXUS61 KCAR 200803
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
403 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. LOW PRESSURE
WILL INTENSIFY SOUTH OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY AND LIFT SLOWLY
NORTHWARD WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
INTENSE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MARITIMES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY
TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY. AT THE SAME TIME HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN FROM THE WEST AND CREST OVER THE REGION THIS EVENING. WILL USE
THE SUPER BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINT. WITH DATA OUTAGE
WILL MANUALLY ADJUST WINDS. DO NOT EXPECT ANY QPF TODAY OR
TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A RETURN TO A WET PATTERN LOOKS TO BE HEADING OUR WAY.

TUESDAY WILL BE A DRY DAY FOR THE MOST PART W/INCREASING CLOUDS
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION FROM QUEBEC WHILE LOW PRES MOVES OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES
TOWARD THE NE STATES. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES ACROSS
THE REGION WHILE THE LOW TO SOUTH IS FORECAST TO REDEVELOP AS IT
HITS THE ATLC SEABOARD. RAIN WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN
PART OF THE STATE BY TUESDAY EVENING AND THEN GRADUALLY SPREAD
NORTHWARD TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE RAIN WILL CONTINUE
RIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE RAIN COULD ALSO BE HEAVY AT TIMES
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE DOWNEAST AND UPSLOPE FAVORED REGIONS SUCH AS
PENOBSCOT, PISCATAQUIS AND EVEN WASHINGTON COUNTY. THIS WILL BE
DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF UPPER LEVEL DIFLUENCE AND DEFORMATION
BANDING AS SHOWN BY THE NAM AND ECMWF. PLUS, THERE IS A SUSTAINED
ESE FETCH FROM 925-700MBS OVERRUNNING A ENE FLOW IN THE BLYR. THE
NAM AND ECMWF APPEAR TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT W/SHOWING THIS HEAVY
RAIN POTENTIAL THROUGH THIS TERM WHILE THE GFS IS NOT AS
CONCENTRATED W/IT PRECIP BUT DOES POINT TO THE BANDING GIVEN IS
STRONG FORCING SHOWN AT 700MBS. ATTM, DECIDED TO FOLLOW THE
DAYCREW`S ASSESSMENT AND SHOW RAIN CHANCES INCREASING TO ABOVE 80%
BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALL THE WAY INTO NORTHERN MAINE. QPF WAS
ADJUSTED UPWARDS BY AT LEAST 0.25" ACROSS THE DOWNEAST AND CENTRAL
HIGHLANDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY DUE TO THE DEFORMATION BANDING AND
UPPER DIFLUENCE POTENTIAL.

DAYTIME TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS PERIOD ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR
NORMAL WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE RUNNING ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RAIN, HEAVY AT TIMES TO CONTINUE RIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AND
THEN PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO A SHOWERY NATURE BEFORE
ENDING EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

LOW PRES WILL BECOME VERTICALLY STACKED AS MENTIONED BY THE
DAYCREW AND SLOWLY LIFT NNE ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA AND THEN INTO
MARITIMES EARLY SATURDAY. DEFORMATION BANDING AND UPPER DIFLUENCE
WILL LIFT ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE ON THURSDAY W/THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL. AS STATED ABOVE, THE RAIN WILL TRANSITION TO
SHOWERS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN WIND DOWN FRIDAY NIGHT. THE
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO STORM TOTALS HITTING 2 TO 4
INCHES ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS. THIS
COULD LEAD TO SOME FLOODING CONCERN GIVEN THE RAINFALL THAT THE
REGION RECEIVED LAST WEEK AND INTO THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL BE
ADDRESSED IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

THE WEEKEND LOOKS TO BE UNSETTLED WITH MORE SHOWERS LATER SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION W/A RETURN TO
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES DROPPING BELOW NORMAL. THERE IS STILL TIME TO
ASSESS THIS FURTHER W/THE LATER MODEL RUNS.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: VFR GOING TO MVFR AND THEN IFR FOR KBGR AND KBHB
LATER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE NORTHERN TERMINALS WILL SEE VFR
HANGING ON THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ON TUESDAY W/MVFR BY LATER
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE NORTHERN TERMINALS ARE EXPECTED
TO SEE CONDITIONS DROP TO IFR BY LATER IN THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY
W/ALL TERMINALS DOWN TO IFR FOR THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: HAVE USED NAM12 FOR SUSTAINED WIND GRIDS. FOR WAVES:
EXPECT LOCAL WIND WAVE TO BE PRIMARY WAVE GROUP. LOCAL WINDS
CURRENTLY OFF-SHORE WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST LATER IN THE PERIOD.
SECONDARY LONG PERIOD WAVE SYSTEM PERSIST FROM THE SOUTHEAST 2-3
FEET/12 SECONDS BASE ON SPECTRAL DATA FROM 44027. EXPECT THIS WAVE
SYSTEM TO PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT. HAVE USE 0300Z RUN OF NEAR
SHORE WAVE MODEL TO INITIALIZE GRIDS. WILL LOWER WAVES FIRST 6
HOURS AS BOUNDARY CONDITIONS GOING INTO MODEL APPEAR TO BE A
LITTLE HIGH. PLAN TO EXTEND SCA WITH COMBINATION WIND GUSTS AND
BUILDING COMBINED SEA LATER IN PERIOD AS WINDS BECOME MORE
SOUTHWEST (LONGER FETCH) AND LONG PERIOD WAVE SYSTEM PERSISTS.


SHORT TERM: GALE FORCE WINDS COULD BE SEEN ON WEDNESDAY AS THE
PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN HIGH PRES TO THE N AND LOW PRES TO
THE S. A PROLONGED ENE FLOW WILL DEFINITELY BRING IN LARGER WAVES
& WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO SUSTAINED 25 KTS W/GUSTS
HITTING 35 KTS ON WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE PRES
GRADIENT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL LOOSEN AS THE LOW LIFTS ACROSS THE
GULF OF MAINE WATERS ON THURSDAY. DECIDED TO BRING WAVE HEIGHTS UP
TO A RANGE 10-12 FT WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

ATTM, WE ARE NOT LOOKING FOR ANY OVERWASH PROBLEMS FOR THE COAST
AS THE FLOW FOR ONE WILL BE PRETTY MUCH PARALLEL TO THE COAST AND
2ND, WAVE PERIODS WILL NOT BE HIGH ENOUGH DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...MIGNONE
SHORT TERM...HEWITT
LONG TERM...HEWITT
AVIATION...MIGNONE/HEWITT
MARINE...MIGNONE/HEWITT









000
FXUS61 KCAR 200803
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
403 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. LOW PRESSURE
WILL INTENSIFY SOUTH OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY AND LIFT SLOWLY
NORTHWARD WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
INTENSE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MARITIMES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY
TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY. AT THE SAME TIME HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN FROM THE WEST AND CREST OVER THE REGION THIS EVENING. WILL USE
THE SUPER BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINT. WITH DATA OUTAGE
WILL MANUALLY ADJUST WINDS. DO NOT EXPECT ANY QPF TODAY OR
TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A RETURN TO A WET PATTERN LOOKS TO BE HEADING OUR WAY.

TUESDAY WILL BE A DRY DAY FOR THE MOST PART W/INCREASING CLOUDS
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION FROM QUEBEC WHILE LOW PRES MOVES OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES
TOWARD THE NE STATES. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES ACROSS
THE REGION WHILE THE LOW TO SOUTH IS FORECAST TO REDEVELOP AS IT
HITS THE ATLC SEABOARD. RAIN WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN
PART OF THE STATE BY TUESDAY EVENING AND THEN GRADUALLY SPREAD
NORTHWARD TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE RAIN WILL CONTINUE
RIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE RAIN COULD ALSO BE HEAVY AT TIMES
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE DOWNEAST AND UPSLOPE FAVORED REGIONS SUCH AS
PENOBSCOT, PISCATAQUIS AND EVEN WASHINGTON COUNTY. THIS WILL BE
DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF UPPER LEVEL DIFLUENCE AND DEFORMATION
BANDING AS SHOWN BY THE NAM AND ECMWF. PLUS, THERE IS A SUSTAINED
ESE FETCH FROM 925-700MBS OVERRUNNING A ENE FLOW IN THE BLYR. THE
NAM AND ECMWF APPEAR TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT W/SHOWING THIS HEAVY
RAIN POTENTIAL THROUGH THIS TERM WHILE THE GFS IS NOT AS
CONCENTRATED W/IT PRECIP BUT DOES POINT TO THE BANDING GIVEN IS
STRONG FORCING SHOWN AT 700MBS. ATTM, DECIDED TO FOLLOW THE
DAYCREW`S ASSESSMENT AND SHOW RAIN CHANCES INCREASING TO ABOVE 80%
BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALL THE WAY INTO NORTHERN MAINE. QPF WAS
ADJUSTED UPWARDS BY AT LEAST 0.25" ACROSS THE DOWNEAST AND CENTRAL
HIGHLANDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY DUE TO THE DEFORMATION BANDING AND
UPPER DIFLUENCE POTENTIAL.

DAYTIME TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS PERIOD ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR
NORMAL WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE RUNNING ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RAIN, HEAVY AT TIMES TO CONTINUE RIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AND
THEN PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO A SHOWERY NATURE BEFORE
ENDING EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

LOW PRES WILL BECOME VERTICALLY STACKED AS MENTIONED BY THE
DAYCREW AND SLOWLY LIFT NNE ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA AND THEN INTO
MARITIMES EARLY SATURDAY. DEFORMATION BANDING AND UPPER DIFLUENCE
WILL LIFT ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE ON THURSDAY W/THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL. AS STATED ABOVE, THE RAIN WILL TRANSITION TO
SHOWERS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN WIND DOWN FRIDAY NIGHT. THE
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO STORM TOTALS HITTING 2 TO 4
INCHES ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS. THIS
COULD LEAD TO SOME FLOODING CONCERN GIVEN THE RAINFALL THAT THE
REGION RECEIVED LAST WEEK AND INTO THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL BE
ADDRESSED IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

THE WEEKEND LOOKS TO BE UNSETTLED WITH MORE SHOWERS LATER SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION W/A RETURN TO
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES DROPPING BELOW NORMAL. THERE IS STILL TIME TO
ASSESS THIS FURTHER W/THE LATER MODEL RUNS.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: VFR GOING TO MVFR AND THEN IFR FOR KBGR AND KBHB
LATER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE NORTHERN TERMINALS WILL SEE VFR
HANGING ON THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ON TUESDAY W/MVFR BY LATER
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE NORTHERN TERMINALS ARE EXPECTED
TO SEE CONDITIONS DROP TO IFR BY LATER IN THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY
W/ALL TERMINALS DOWN TO IFR FOR THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: HAVE USED NAM12 FOR SUSTAINED WIND GRIDS. FOR WAVES:
EXPECT LOCAL WIND WAVE TO BE PRIMARY WAVE GROUP. LOCAL WINDS
CURRENTLY OFF-SHORE WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST LATER IN THE PERIOD.
SECONDARY LONG PERIOD WAVE SYSTEM PERSIST FROM THE SOUTHEAST 2-3
FEET/12 SECONDS BASE ON SPECTRAL DATA FROM 44027. EXPECT THIS WAVE
SYSTEM TO PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT. HAVE USE 0300Z RUN OF NEAR
SHORE WAVE MODEL TO INITIALIZE GRIDS. WILL LOWER WAVES FIRST 6
HOURS AS BOUNDARY CONDITIONS GOING INTO MODEL APPEAR TO BE A
LITTLE HIGH. PLAN TO EXTEND SCA WITH COMBINATION WIND GUSTS AND
BUILDING COMBINED SEA LATER IN PERIOD AS WINDS BECOME MORE
SOUTHWEST (LONGER FETCH) AND LONG PERIOD WAVE SYSTEM PERSISTS.


SHORT TERM: GALE FORCE WINDS COULD BE SEEN ON WEDNESDAY AS THE
PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN HIGH PRES TO THE N AND LOW PRES TO
THE S. A PROLONGED ENE FLOW WILL DEFINITELY BRING IN LARGER WAVES
& WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO SUSTAINED 25 KTS W/GUSTS
HITTING 35 KTS ON WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE PRES
GRADIENT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL LOOSEN AS THE LOW LIFTS ACROSS THE
GULF OF MAINE WATERS ON THURSDAY. DECIDED TO BRING WAVE HEIGHTS UP
TO A RANGE 10-12 FT WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

ATTM, WE ARE NOT LOOKING FOR ANY OVERWASH PROBLEMS FOR THE COAST
AS THE FLOW FOR ONE WILL BE PRETTY MUCH PARALLEL TO THE COAST AND
2ND, WAVE PERIODS WILL NOT BE HIGH ENOUGH DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...MIGNONE
SHORT TERM...HEWITT
LONG TERM...HEWITT
AVIATION...MIGNONE/HEWITT
MARINE...MIGNONE/HEWITT









000
FXUS61 KCAR 200803
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
403 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. LOW PRESSURE
WILL INTENSIFY SOUTH OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY AND LIFT SLOWLY
NORTHWARD WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
INTENSE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MARITIMES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY
TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY. AT THE SAME TIME HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN FROM THE WEST AND CREST OVER THE REGION THIS EVENING. WILL USE
THE SUPER BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINT. WITH DATA OUTAGE
WILL MANUALLY ADJUST WINDS. DO NOT EXPECT ANY QPF TODAY OR
TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A RETURN TO A WET PATTERN LOOKS TO BE HEADING OUR WAY.

TUESDAY WILL BE A DRY DAY FOR THE MOST PART W/INCREASING CLOUDS
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION FROM QUEBEC WHILE LOW PRES MOVES OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES
TOWARD THE NE STATES. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES ACROSS
THE REGION WHILE THE LOW TO SOUTH IS FORECAST TO REDEVELOP AS IT
HITS THE ATLC SEABOARD. RAIN WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN
PART OF THE STATE BY TUESDAY EVENING AND THEN GRADUALLY SPREAD
NORTHWARD TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE RAIN WILL CONTINUE
RIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE RAIN COULD ALSO BE HEAVY AT TIMES
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE DOWNEAST AND UPSLOPE FAVORED REGIONS SUCH AS
PENOBSCOT, PISCATAQUIS AND EVEN WASHINGTON COUNTY. THIS WILL BE
DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF UPPER LEVEL DIFLUENCE AND DEFORMATION
BANDING AS SHOWN BY THE NAM AND ECMWF. PLUS, THERE IS A SUSTAINED
ESE FETCH FROM 925-700MBS OVERRUNNING A ENE FLOW IN THE BLYR. THE
NAM AND ECMWF APPEAR TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT W/SHOWING THIS HEAVY
RAIN POTENTIAL THROUGH THIS TERM WHILE THE GFS IS NOT AS
CONCENTRATED W/IT PRECIP BUT DOES POINT TO THE BANDING GIVEN IS
STRONG FORCING SHOWN AT 700MBS. ATTM, DECIDED TO FOLLOW THE
DAYCREW`S ASSESSMENT AND SHOW RAIN CHANCES INCREASING TO ABOVE 80%
BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALL THE WAY INTO NORTHERN MAINE. QPF WAS
ADJUSTED UPWARDS BY AT LEAST 0.25" ACROSS THE DOWNEAST AND CENTRAL
HIGHLANDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY DUE TO THE DEFORMATION BANDING AND
UPPER DIFLUENCE POTENTIAL.

DAYTIME TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS PERIOD ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR
NORMAL WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE RUNNING ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RAIN, HEAVY AT TIMES TO CONTINUE RIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AND
THEN PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO A SHOWERY NATURE BEFORE
ENDING EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

LOW PRES WILL BECOME VERTICALLY STACKED AS MENTIONED BY THE
DAYCREW AND SLOWLY LIFT NNE ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA AND THEN INTO
MARITIMES EARLY SATURDAY. DEFORMATION BANDING AND UPPER DIFLUENCE
WILL LIFT ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE ON THURSDAY W/THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL. AS STATED ABOVE, THE RAIN WILL TRANSITION TO
SHOWERS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN WIND DOWN FRIDAY NIGHT. THE
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO STORM TOTALS HITTING 2 TO 4
INCHES ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS. THIS
COULD LEAD TO SOME FLOODING CONCERN GIVEN THE RAINFALL THAT THE
REGION RECEIVED LAST WEEK AND INTO THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL BE
ADDRESSED IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

THE WEEKEND LOOKS TO BE UNSETTLED WITH MORE SHOWERS LATER SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION W/A RETURN TO
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES DROPPING BELOW NORMAL. THERE IS STILL TIME TO
ASSESS THIS FURTHER W/THE LATER MODEL RUNS.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: VFR GOING TO MVFR AND THEN IFR FOR KBGR AND KBHB
LATER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE NORTHERN TERMINALS WILL SEE VFR
HANGING ON THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ON TUESDAY W/MVFR BY LATER
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE NORTHERN TERMINALS ARE EXPECTED
TO SEE CONDITIONS DROP TO IFR BY LATER IN THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY
W/ALL TERMINALS DOWN TO IFR FOR THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: HAVE USED NAM12 FOR SUSTAINED WIND GRIDS. FOR WAVES:
EXPECT LOCAL WIND WAVE TO BE PRIMARY WAVE GROUP. LOCAL WINDS
CURRENTLY OFF-SHORE WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST LATER IN THE PERIOD.
SECONDARY LONG PERIOD WAVE SYSTEM PERSIST FROM THE SOUTHEAST 2-3
FEET/12 SECONDS BASE ON SPECTRAL DATA FROM 44027. EXPECT THIS WAVE
SYSTEM TO PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT. HAVE USE 0300Z RUN OF NEAR
SHORE WAVE MODEL TO INITIALIZE GRIDS. WILL LOWER WAVES FIRST 6
HOURS AS BOUNDARY CONDITIONS GOING INTO MODEL APPEAR TO BE A
LITTLE HIGH. PLAN TO EXTEND SCA WITH COMBINATION WIND GUSTS AND
BUILDING COMBINED SEA LATER IN PERIOD AS WINDS BECOME MORE
SOUTHWEST (LONGER FETCH) AND LONG PERIOD WAVE SYSTEM PERSISTS.


SHORT TERM: GALE FORCE WINDS COULD BE SEEN ON WEDNESDAY AS THE
PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN HIGH PRES TO THE N AND LOW PRES TO
THE S. A PROLONGED ENE FLOW WILL DEFINITELY BRING IN LARGER WAVES
& WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO SUSTAINED 25 KTS W/GUSTS
HITTING 35 KTS ON WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE PRES
GRADIENT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL LOOSEN AS THE LOW LIFTS ACROSS THE
GULF OF MAINE WATERS ON THURSDAY. DECIDED TO BRING WAVE HEIGHTS UP
TO A RANGE 10-12 FT WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

ATTM, WE ARE NOT LOOKING FOR ANY OVERWASH PROBLEMS FOR THE COAST
AS THE FLOW FOR ONE WILL BE PRETTY MUCH PARALLEL TO THE COAST AND
2ND, WAVE PERIODS WILL NOT BE HIGH ENOUGH DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...MIGNONE
SHORT TERM...HEWITT
LONG TERM...HEWITT
AVIATION...MIGNONE/HEWITT
MARINE...MIGNONE/HEWITT









000
FXUS61 KCAR 200803
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
403 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. LOW PRESSURE
WILL INTENSIFY SOUTH OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY AND LIFT SLOWLY
NORTHWARD WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
INTENSE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MARITIMES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY
TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY. AT THE SAME TIME HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN FROM THE WEST AND CREST OVER THE REGION THIS EVENING. WILL USE
THE SUPER BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINT. WITH DATA OUTAGE
WILL MANUALLY ADJUST WINDS. DO NOT EXPECT ANY QPF TODAY OR
TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A RETURN TO A WET PATTERN LOOKS TO BE HEADING OUR WAY.

TUESDAY WILL BE A DRY DAY FOR THE MOST PART W/INCREASING CLOUDS
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION FROM QUEBEC WHILE LOW PRES MOVES OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES
TOWARD THE NE STATES. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES ACROSS
THE REGION WHILE THE LOW TO SOUTH IS FORECAST TO REDEVELOP AS IT
HITS THE ATLC SEABOARD. RAIN WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN
PART OF THE STATE BY TUESDAY EVENING AND THEN GRADUALLY SPREAD
NORTHWARD TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE RAIN WILL CONTINUE
RIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE RAIN COULD ALSO BE HEAVY AT TIMES
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE DOWNEAST AND UPSLOPE FAVORED REGIONS SUCH AS
PENOBSCOT, PISCATAQUIS AND EVEN WASHINGTON COUNTY. THIS WILL BE
DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF UPPER LEVEL DIFLUENCE AND DEFORMATION
BANDING AS SHOWN BY THE NAM AND ECMWF. PLUS, THERE IS A SUSTAINED
ESE FETCH FROM 925-700MBS OVERRUNNING A ENE FLOW IN THE BLYR. THE
NAM AND ECMWF APPEAR TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT W/SHOWING THIS HEAVY
RAIN POTENTIAL THROUGH THIS TERM WHILE THE GFS IS NOT AS
CONCENTRATED W/IT PRECIP BUT DOES POINT TO THE BANDING GIVEN IS
STRONG FORCING SHOWN AT 700MBS. ATTM, DECIDED TO FOLLOW THE
DAYCREW`S ASSESSMENT AND SHOW RAIN CHANCES INCREASING TO ABOVE 80%
BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALL THE WAY INTO NORTHERN MAINE. QPF WAS
ADJUSTED UPWARDS BY AT LEAST 0.25" ACROSS THE DOWNEAST AND CENTRAL
HIGHLANDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY DUE TO THE DEFORMATION BANDING AND
UPPER DIFLUENCE POTENTIAL.

DAYTIME TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS PERIOD ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR
NORMAL WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE RUNNING ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RAIN, HEAVY AT TIMES TO CONTINUE RIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AND
THEN PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO A SHOWERY NATURE BEFORE
ENDING EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

LOW PRES WILL BECOME VERTICALLY STACKED AS MENTIONED BY THE
DAYCREW AND SLOWLY LIFT NNE ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA AND THEN INTO
MARITIMES EARLY SATURDAY. DEFORMATION BANDING AND UPPER DIFLUENCE
WILL LIFT ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE ON THURSDAY W/THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL. AS STATED ABOVE, THE RAIN WILL TRANSITION TO
SHOWERS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN WIND DOWN FRIDAY NIGHT. THE
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO STORM TOTALS HITTING 2 TO 4
INCHES ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS. THIS
COULD LEAD TO SOME FLOODING CONCERN GIVEN THE RAINFALL THAT THE
REGION RECEIVED LAST WEEK AND INTO THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL BE
ADDRESSED IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

THE WEEKEND LOOKS TO BE UNSETTLED WITH MORE SHOWERS LATER SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION W/A RETURN TO
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES DROPPING BELOW NORMAL. THERE IS STILL TIME TO
ASSESS THIS FURTHER W/THE LATER MODEL RUNS.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: VFR GOING TO MVFR AND THEN IFR FOR KBGR AND KBHB
LATER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE NORTHERN TERMINALS WILL SEE VFR
HANGING ON THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ON TUESDAY W/MVFR BY LATER
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE NORTHERN TERMINALS ARE EXPECTED
TO SEE CONDITIONS DROP TO IFR BY LATER IN THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY
W/ALL TERMINALS DOWN TO IFR FOR THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: HAVE USED NAM12 FOR SUSTAINED WIND GRIDS. FOR WAVES:
EXPECT LOCAL WIND WAVE TO BE PRIMARY WAVE GROUP. LOCAL WINDS
CURRENTLY OFF-SHORE WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST LATER IN THE PERIOD.
SECONDARY LONG PERIOD WAVE SYSTEM PERSIST FROM THE SOUTHEAST 2-3
FEET/12 SECONDS BASE ON SPECTRAL DATA FROM 44027. EXPECT THIS WAVE
SYSTEM TO PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT. HAVE USE 0300Z RUN OF NEAR
SHORE WAVE MODEL TO INITIALIZE GRIDS. WILL LOWER WAVES FIRST 6
HOURS AS BOUNDARY CONDITIONS GOING INTO MODEL APPEAR TO BE A
LITTLE HIGH. PLAN TO EXTEND SCA WITH COMBINATION WIND GUSTS AND
BUILDING COMBINED SEA LATER IN PERIOD AS WINDS BECOME MORE
SOUTHWEST (LONGER FETCH) AND LONG PERIOD WAVE SYSTEM PERSISTS.


SHORT TERM: GALE FORCE WINDS COULD BE SEEN ON WEDNESDAY AS THE
PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN HIGH PRES TO THE N AND LOW PRES TO
THE S. A PROLONGED ENE FLOW WILL DEFINITELY BRING IN LARGER WAVES
& WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO SUSTAINED 25 KTS W/GUSTS
HITTING 35 KTS ON WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE PRES
GRADIENT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL LOOSEN AS THE LOW LIFTS ACROSS THE
GULF OF MAINE WATERS ON THURSDAY. DECIDED TO BRING WAVE HEIGHTS UP
TO A RANGE 10-12 FT WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

ATTM, WE ARE NOT LOOKING FOR ANY OVERWASH PROBLEMS FOR THE COAST
AS THE FLOW FOR ONE WILL BE PRETTY MUCH PARALLEL TO THE COAST AND
2ND, WAVE PERIODS WILL NOT BE HIGH ENOUGH DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...MIGNONE
SHORT TERM...HEWITT
LONG TERM...HEWITT
AVIATION...MIGNONE/HEWITT
MARINE...MIGNONE/HEWITT









000
FXUS61 KCAR 200803
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
403 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. LOW PRESSURE
WILL INTENSIFY SOUTH OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY AND LIFT SLOWLY
NORTHWARD WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
INTENSE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MARITIMES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY
TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY. AT THE SAME TIME HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN FROM THE WEST AND CREST OVER THE REGION THIS EVENING. WILL USE
THE SUPER BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINT. WITH DATA OUTAGE
WILL MANUALLY ADJUST WINDS. DO NOT EXPECT ANY QPF TODAY OR
TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A RETURN TO A WET PATTERN LOOKS TO BE HEADING OUR WAY.

TUESDAY WILL BE A DRY DAY FOR THE MOST PART W/INCREASING CLOUDS
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION FROM QUEBEC WHILE LOW PRES MOVES OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES
TOWARD THE NE STATES. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES ACROSS
THE REGION WHILE THE LOW TO SOUTH IS FORECAST TO REDEVELOP AS IT
HITS THE ATLC SEABOARD. RAIN WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN
PART OF THE STATE BY TUESDAY EVENING AND THEN GRADUALLY SPREAD
NORTHWARD TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE RAIN WILL CONTINUE
RIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE RAIN COULD ALSO BE HEAVY AT TIMES
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE DOWNEAST AND UPSLOPE FAVORED REGIONS SUCH AS
PENOBSCOT, PISCATAQUIS AND EVEN WASHINGTON COUNTY. THIS WILL BE
DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF UPPER LEVEL DIFLUENCE AND DEFORMATION
BANDING AS SHOWN BY THE NAM AND ECMWF. PLUS, THERE IS A SUSTAINED
ESE FETCH FROM 925-700MBS OVERRUNNING A ENE FLOW IN THE BLYR. THE
NAM AND ECMWF APPEAR TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT W/SHOWING THIS HEAVY
RAIN POTENTIAL THROUGH THIS TERM WHILE THE GFS IS NOT AS
CONCENTRATED W/IT PRECIP BUT DOES POINT TO THE BANDING GIVEN IS
STRONG FORCING SHOWN AT 700MBS. ATTM, DECIDED TO FOLLOW THE
DAYCREW`S ASSESSMENT AND SHOW RAIN CHANCES INCREASING TO ABOVE 80%
BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALL THE WAY INTO NORTHERN MAINE. QPF WAS
ADJUSTED UPWARDS BY AT LEAST 0.25" ACROSS THE DOWNEAST AND CENTRAL
HIGHLANDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY DUE TO THE DEFORMATION BANDING AND
UPPER DIFLUENCE POTENTIAL.

DAYTIME TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS PERIOD ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR
NORMAL WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE RUNNING ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RAIN, HEAVY AT TIMES TO CONTINUE RIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AND
THEN PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO A SHOWERY NATURE BEFORE
ENDING EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

LOW PRES WILL BECOME VERTICALLY STACKED AS MENTIONED BY THE
DAYCREW AND SLOWLY LIFT NNE ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA AND THEN INTO
MARITIMES EARLY SATURDAY. DEFORMATION BANDING AND UPPER DIFLUENCE
WILL LIFT ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE ON THURSDAY W/THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL. AS STATED ABOVE, THE RAIN WILL TRANSITION TO
SHOWERS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN WIND DOWN FRIDAY NIGHT. THE
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO STORM TOTALS HITTING 2 TO 4
INCHES ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS. THIS
COULD LEAD TO SOME FLOODING CONCERN GIVEN THE RAINFALL THAT THE
REGION RECEIVED LAST WEEK AND INTO THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL BE
ADDRESSED IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

THE WEEKEND LOOKS TO BE UNSETTLED WITH MORE SHOWERS LATER SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION W/A RETURN TO
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES DROPPING BELOW NORMAL. THERE IS STILL TIME TO
ASSESS THIS FURTHER W/THE LATER MODEL RUNS.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: VFR GOING TO MVFR AND THEN IFR FOR KBGR AND KBHB
LATER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE NORTHERN TERMINALS WILL SEE VFR
HANGING ON THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ON TUESDAY W/MVFR BY LATER
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE NORTHERN TERMINALS ARE EXPECTED
TO SEE CONDITIONS DROP TO IFR BY LATER IN THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY
W/ALL TERMINALS DOWN TO IFR FOR THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: HAVE USED NAM12 FOR SUSTAINED WIND GRIDS. FOR WAVES:
EXPECT LOCAL WIND WAVE TO BE PRIMARY WAVE GROUP. LOCAL WINDS
CURRENTLY OFF-SHORE WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST LATER IN THE PERIOD.
SECONDARY LONG PERIOD WAVE SYSTEM PERSIST FROM THE SOUTHEAST 2-3
FEET/12 SECONDS BASE ON SPECTRAL DATA FROM 44027. EXPECT THIS WAVE
SYSTEM TO PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT. HAVE USE 0300Z RUN OF NEAR
SHORE WAVE MODEL TO INITIALIZE GRIDS. WILL LOWER WAVES FIRST 6
HOURS AS BOUNDARY CONDITIONS GOING INTO MODEL APPEAR TO BE A
LITTLE HIGH. PLAN TO EXTEND SCA WITH COMBINATION WIND GUSTS AND
BUILDING COMBINED SEA LATER IN PERIOD AS WINDS BECOME MORE
SOUTHWEST (LONGER FETCH) AND LONG PERIOD WAVE SYSTEM PERSISTS.


SHORT TERM: GALE FORCE WINDS COULD BE SEEN ON WEDNESDAY AS THE
PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN HIGH PRES TO THE N AND LOW PRES TO
THE S. A PROLONGED ENE FLOW WILL DEFINITELY BRING IN LARGER WAVES
& WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO SUSTAINED 25 KTS W/GUSTS
HITTING 35 KTS ON WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE PRES
GRADIENT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL LOOSEN AS THE LOW LIFTS ACROSS THE
GULF OF MAINE WATERS ON THURSDAY. DECIDED TO BRING WAVE HEIGHTS UP
TO A RANGE 10-12 FT WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

ATTM, WE ARE NOT LOOKING FOR ANY OVERWASH PROBLEMS FOR THE COAST
AS THE FLOW FOR ONE WILL BE PRETTY MUCH PARALLEL TO THE COAST AND
2ND, WAVE PERIODS WILL NOT BE HIGH ENOUGH DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...MIGNONE
SHORT TERM...HEWITT
LONG TERM...HEWITT
AVIATION...MIGNONE/HEWITT
MARINE...MIGNONE/HEWITT









000
FXUS61 KCAR 200803
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
403 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. LOW PRESSURE
WILL INTENSIFY SOUTH OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY AND LIFT SLOWLY
NORTHWARD WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
INTENSE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MARITIMES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY
TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY. AT THE SAME TIME HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN FROM THE WEST AND CREST OVER THE REGION THIS EVENING. WILL USE
THE SUPER BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINT. WITH DATA OUTAGE
WILL MANUALLY ADJUST WINDS. DO NOT EXPECT ANY QPF TODAY OR
TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A RETURN TO A WET PATTERN LOOKS TO BE HEADING OUR WAY.

TUESDAY WILL BE A DRY DAY FOR THE MOST PART W/INCREASING CLOUDS
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION FROM QUEBEC WHILE LOW PRES MOVES OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES
TOWARD THE NE STATES. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES ACROSS
THE REGION WHILE THE LOW TO SOUTH IS FORECAST TO REDEVELOP AS IT
HITS THE ATLC SEABOARD. RAIN WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN
PART OF THE STATE BY TUESDAY EVENING AND THEN GRADUALLY SPREAD
NORTHWARD TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE RAIN WILL CONTINUE
RIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE RAIN COULD ALSO BE HEAVY AT TIMES
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE DOWNEAST AND UPSLOPE FAVORED REGIONS SUCH AS
PENOBSCOT, PISCATAQUIS AND EVEN WASHINGTON COUNTY. THIS WILL BE
DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF UPPER LEVEL DIFLUENCE AND DEFORMATION
BANDING AS SHOWN BY THE NAM AND ECMWF. PLUS, THERE IS A SUSTAINED
ESE FETCH FROM 925-700MBS OVERRUNNING A ENE FLOW IN THE BLYR. THE
NAM AND ECMWF APPEAR TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT W/SHOWING THIS HEAVY
RAIN POTENTIAL THROUGH THIS TERM WHILE THE GFS IS NOT AS
CONCENTRATED W/IT PRECIP BUT DOES POINT TO THE BANDING GIVEN IS
STRONG FORCING SHOWN AT 700MBS. ATTM, DECIDED TO FOLLOW THE
DAYCREW`S ASSESSMENT AND SHOW RAIN CHANCES INCREASING TO ABOVE 80%
BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALL THE WAY INTO NORTHERN MAINE. QPF WAS
ADJUSTED UPWARDS BY AT LEAST 0.25" ACROSS THE DOWNEAST AND CENTRAL
HIGHLANDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY DUE TO THE DEFORMATION BANDING AND
UPPER DIFLUENCE POTENTIAL.

DAYTIME TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS PERIOD ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR
NORMAL WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE RUNNING ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RAIN, HEAVY AT TIMES TO CONTINUE RIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AND
THEN PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO A SHOWERY NATURE BEFORE
ENDING EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

LOW PRES WILL BECOME VERTICALLY STACKED AS MENTIONED BY THE
DAYCREW AND SLOWLY LIFT NNE ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA AND THEN INTO
MARITIMES EARLY SATURDAY. DEFORMATION BANDING AND UPPER DIFLUENCE
WILL LIFT ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE ON THURSDAY W/THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL. AS STATED ABOVE, THE RAIN WILL TRANSITION TO
SHOWERS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN WIND DOWN FRIDAY NIGHT. THE
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO STORM TOTALS HITTING 2 TO 4
INCHES ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS. THIS
COULD LEAD TO SOME FLOODING CONCERN GIVEN THE RAINFALL THAT THE
REGION RECEIVED LAST WEEK AND INTO THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL BE
ADDRESSED IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

THE WEEKEND LOOKS TO BE UNSETTLED WITH MORE SHOWERS LATER SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION W/A RETURN TO
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES DROPPING BELOW NORMAL. THERE IS STILL TIME TO
ASSESS THIS FURTHER W/THE LATER MODEL RUNS.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: VFR GOING TO MVFR AND THEN IFR FOR KBGR AND KBHB
LATER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE NORTHERN TERMINALS WILL SEE VFR
HANGING ON THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ON TUESDAY W/MVFR BY LATER
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE NORTHERN TERMINALS ARE EXPECTED
TO SEE CONDITIONS DROP TO IFR BY LATER IN THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY
W/ALL TERMINALS DOWN TO IFR FOR THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: HAVE USED NAM12 FOR SUSTAINED WIND GRIDS. FOR WAVES:
EXPECT LOCAL WIND WAVE TO BE PRIMARY WAVE GROUP. LOCAL WINDS
CURRENTLY OFF-SHORE WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST LATER IN THE PERIOD.
SECONDARY LONG PERIOD WAVE SYSTEM PERSIST FROM THE SOUTHEAST 2-3
FEET/12 SECONDS BASE ON SPECTRAL DATA FROM 44027. EXPECT THIS WAVE
SYSTEM TO PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT. HAVE USE 0300Z RUN OF NEAR
SHORE WAVE MODEL TO INITIALIZE GRIDS. WILL LOWER WAVES FIRST 6
HOURS AS BOUNDARY CONDITIONS GOING INTO MODEL APPEAR TO BE A
LITTLE HIGH. PLAN TO EXTEND SCA WITH COMBINATION WIND GUSTS AND
BUILDING COMBINED SEA LATER IN PERIOD AS WINDS BECOME MORE
SOUTHWEST (LONGER FETCH) AND LONG PERIOD WAVE SYSTEM PERSISTS.


SHORT TERM: GALE FORCE WINDS COULD BE SEEN ON WEDNESDAY AS THE
PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN HIGH PRES TO THE N AND LOW PRES TO
THE S. A PROLONGED ENE FLOW WILL DEFINITELY BRING IN LARGER WAVES
& WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO SUSTAINED 25 KTS W/GUSTS
HITTING 35 KTS ON WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE PRES
GRADIENT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL LOOSEN AS THE LOW LIFTS ACROSS THE
GULF OF MAINE WATERS ON THURSDAY. DECIDED TO BRING WAVE HEIGHTS UP
TO A RANGE 10-12 FT WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

ATTM, WE ARE NOT LOOKING FOR ANY OVERWASH PROBLEMS FOR THE COAST
AS THE FLOW FOR ONE WILL BE PRETTY MUCH PARALLEL TO THE COAST AND
2ND, WAVE PERIODS WILL NOT BE HIGH ENOUGH DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...MIGNONE
SHORT TERM...HEWITT
LONG TERM...HEWITT
AVIATION...MIGNONE/HEWITT
MARINE...MIGNONE/HEWITT









000
FXUS61 KGYX 200800
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
400 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE TODAY. LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AND WILL INTENSIFY SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND
TUESDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL MEANDER OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND COAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE DRIFTING OFF TO
THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
STUBBORN CLOUD COVER AND A PERSISTENT PRESSURE GRADIENT HAVE KEPT
WINDS AND TEMPERATURES UP OVERNIGHT. SOME SHELTERED LOCATIONS MAY
STILL DECOUPLE AND SEE TEMPERATURE DROP OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS BUT MANY LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING. WILL ALLOW
FREEZE WARNING TO EXPIRE AT SUNRISE AS SCHEDULED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AS THE WEAK HIGH MOVES OUT
AND A LOW BEGINS TO APPROACH ON TUESDAY. THE WINDS WILL FINALLY
BEING TO DIMINISH AS THE GRADIENT SHIFTS OFFSHORE WITH THE WEAK
RIDGING. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD WITH WIDESPREAD
CLOUD COVER KEEPING TEMPERATURES UP. TUESDAY THE WARM FRONT AHEAD
OF THE LOW WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA
BY THE END OF THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
SEASONABLE IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EAST COAST CYCLONGENESIS WILL TAKE PLACE ON SCHEDULE TUESDAY
NIGHT ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COASTLINE. THE 00Z MODEL SUITE STILL
HAS SOME DISAGREEMENT AMONGST ITS MEMBERS. AFTER MODEL CONSENSUS
INDICATED A JOG TO THE NORTH WITH THE CUTOFF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
AND SURFACE LOW...TONIGHTS MODELS ARE NOW DIGGING THE TROUGH
FURTHER TO THE SOUTH...SIMILAR TO RUNS LATE LAST WEEK. THE
STRONGER/MORE INTENSE DIGGING SOLUTION APPEARS TO BE REASONABLE
WHEN VIEWING THIS MORNINGS LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. AS OF
07Z...THE CENTER OF THE CIRCULATION OF THE UPPER LOW WAS OVER FAR
WESTERN MICHIGAN AND DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD.

CYCLOGENESIS FURTHER TO OUR SOUTH WOULD ALLOW THE DRY SLOT TO STAY
OFFSHORE UNTIL THURSDAY...THEREBY UPPING OUR STORM TOTALS RAINFALL
FORECASTS. FOR NOW...WITH A PERSISTENT AND MOIST NORTHEAST
FLOW...WE ARE EXPECTING TWO TO THREE INCHES TOTAL RAINFALL OVER
THE REGION...WITH LOCALIZED AREAS UP TO FOUR INCHES...ESPECIALLY
OVER NORTHEAST FACING HIGHER TERRAIN.

COASTAL FLOODING IS A POSSIBILITY AS THE SYSTEM MAKES A LOOP OVER
LONG ISLAND NEW YORK ON THURSDAY. WAVE RUNUP TOOLS INDICATING
SOME BEACH EROSION ACROSS MUCH OF OUR COASTLINE...ALONG WITH
SPLASH-OVER AND OVERWASH. NEARSHORE WAVES SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE 10
TO 15 FOOT RANGE.

STEADY PRECIP ENDS ON FRIDAY AS THE SYSTEM LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD.

HYDRO...MAINSTEM RIVERS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY MIDWEEK.
MOST SMALL RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL LIKELY HAVE SHARP RISES AS
WELL. HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL MAINE
AND THE NORTHEAST FACING HIGHER TERRAIN. AGAIN...MOSTLY 2-3 INCHES
QPF WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS NEAR OR OVER 4 INCHES.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY... WITH MVFR CIELINGS
MONDAY NIGHT. BY TUESDAY NIGHT IFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
THE REGION.

LONG TERM...PROLONGED PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS WITH LOCAL IFR AT
TIMES LATE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...BEFORE CONDITIONS SLOWLY
BEGIN TO IMPROVE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM... WINDS CONTINUE TO GUST TO 25KTS TO 30KTS ACROSS THE
OUTER WATERS THIS MORNING... BUT WILL DIMINISH BY MIDDAY. EXPECT
SCA TO BE DROPPED AROUND MID DAY... WAVES REMAIN BELOW SCA
CRITERIA THOUGH TUESDAY.

LONG TERM...GALE FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE
UPCOMING COASTAL LOW WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MEZ023>028.
NH...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NHZ013-014.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KGYX 200800
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
400 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE TODAY. LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AND WILL INTENSIFY SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND
TUESDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL MEANDER OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND COAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE DRIFTING OFF TO
THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
STUBBORN CLOUD COVER AND A PERSISTENT PRESSURE GRADIENT HAVE KEPT
WINDS AND TEMPERATURES UP OVERNIGHT. SOME SHELTERED LOCATIONS MAY
STILL DECOUPLE AND SEE TEMPERATURE DROP OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS BUT MANY LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING. WILL ALLOW
FREEZE WARNING TO EXPIRE AT SUNRISE AS SCHEDULED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AS THE WEAK HIGH MOVES OUT
AND A LOW BEGINS TO APPROACH ON TUESDAY. THE WINDS WILL FINALLY
BEING TO DIMINISH AS THE GRADIENT SHIFTS OFFSHORE WITH THE WEAK
RIDGING. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD WITH WIDESPREAD
CLOUD COVER KEEPING TEMPERATURES UP. TUESDAY THE WARM FRONT AHEAD
OF THE LOW WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA
BY THE END OF THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
SEASONABLE IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EAST COAST CYCLONGENESIS WILL TAKE PLACE ON SCHEDULE TUESDAY
NIGHT ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COASTLINE. THE 00Z MODEL SUITE STILL
HAS SOME DISAGREEMENT AMONGST ITS MEMBERS. AFTER MODEL CONSENSUS
INDICATED A JOG TO THE NORTH WITH THE CUTOFF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
AND SURFACE LOW...TONIGHTS MODELS ARE NOW DIGGING THE TROUGH
FURTHER TO THE SOUTH...SIMILAR TO RUNS LATE LAST WEEK. THE
STRONGER/MORE INTENSE DIGGING SOLUTION APPEARS TO BE REASONABLE
WHEN VIEWING THIS MORNINGS LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. AS OF
07Z...THE CENTER OF THE CIRCULATION OF THE UPPER LOW WAS OVER FAR
WESTERN MICHIGAN AND DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD.

CYCLOGENESIS FURTHER TO OUR SOUTH WOULD ALLOW THE DRY SLOT TO STAY
OFFSHORE UNTIL THURSDAY...THEREBY UPPING OUR STORM TOTALS RAINFALL
FORECASTS. FOR NOW...WITH A PERSISTENT AND MOIST NORTHEAST
FLOW...WE ARE EXPECTING TWO TO THREE INCHES TOTAL RAINFALL OVER
THE REGION...WITH LOCALIZED AREAS UP TO FOUR INCHES...ESPECIALLY
OVER NORTHEAST FACING HIGHER TERRAIN.

COASTAL FLOODING IS A POSSIBILITY AS THE SYSTEM MAKES A LOOP OVER
LONG ISLAND NEW YORK ON THURSDAY. WAVE RUNUP TOOLS INDICATING
SOME BEACH EROSION ACROSS MUCH OF OUR COASTLINE...ALONG WITH
SPLASH-OVER AND OVERWASH. NEARSHORE WAVES SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE 10
TO 15 FOOT RANGE.

STEADY PRECIP ENDS ON FRIDAY AS THE SYSTEM LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD.

HYDRO...MAINSTEM RIVERS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY MIDWEEK.
MOST SMALL RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL LIKELY HAVE SHARP RISES AS
WELL. HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL MAINE
AND THE NORTHEAST FACING HIGHER TERRAIN. AGAIN...MOSTLY 2-3 INCHES
QPF WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS NEAR OR OVER 4 INCHES.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY... WITH MVFR CIELINGS
MONDAY NIGHT. BY TUESDAY NIGHT IFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
THE REGION.

LONG TERM...PROLONGED PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS WITH LOCAL IFR AT
TIMES LATE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...BEFORE CONDITIONS SLOWLY
BEGIN TO IMPROVE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM... WINDS CONTINUE TO GUST TO 25KTS TO 30KTS ACROSS THE
OUTER WATERS THIS MORNING... BUT WILL DIMINISH BY MIDDAY. EXPECT
SCA TO BE DROPPED AROUND MID DAY... WAVES REMAIN BELOW SCA
CRITERIA THOUGH TUESDAY.

LONG TERM...GALE FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE
UPCOMING COASTAL LOW WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MEZ023>028.
NH...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NHZ013-014.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KCAR 200418
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1218 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE
WILL INTENSIFY SOUTH OF THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
UPDATE 0015 EDT: HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPERATURE...DEW POINT AND WINDS
BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS... NO OTHER CHANGES.


AT THE START OF THE PERIOD THERE WILL BE A SURFACE LOW OVER THE
NORTH ATLANTIC SOUTH OF CENTRAL NOVA SCOTIA...ITS ASSOCIATED UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE EXTENDED SOUTH THROUGH CENTRAL MAINE. A
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE DIGGING SOUTH TO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
COAST. THERE WILL BE A BROAD AREA OF LOWER PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TO CENTRAL CANADA TO THE NORTH. BY MON
MRNG...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH NEW
BRUNSWICK...THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD OUT INTO THE NORTH
ATLANTIC. THE CIRCULATION AROUND THE UPPER LOW...WILL GENERATE A
NEW TROUGH OF LOWER PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. WITH A
NEW SURFACE LOW FORMING OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. MON EVNG...THE END OF
THE PERIOD...THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO CIRCULATE AROUND THE
UPPER LOW MOVING EAST TO THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES. THE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC...WITH MAINE
BEING IN THE RETURN FLOW ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE.

CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE QUIET...WITH BOTH MAX AND
MIN TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LOADED A BLEND OF GFS/ECMWF/GEM/NAM THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR
MAX/MIN TEMPS...HRLY T/DP/WND/SKY/POP. LOADED RFCQPF...ADDED 15
PERCENT TO WNDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND...25 PERCENT OVER WATER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE REGION AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE
MID 20S TO AROUND 30 NORTH AND LOW TO MID 30S DOWNEAST. UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY WILL DIVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY CARVING OUT A CLOSED UPPER LOW ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION BY WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL SET US UP FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
RAINY WEATHER BY MID-WEEK. A VERTICALLY STACKED UPPER LOW TO OUR
SOUTH WILL RESULT IN A DEEP E TO SE FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC. THE BIG
QUESTION IS WHERE THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL EVENTUALLY
SET UP ACROSS OUR CWA. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALSO BE
ESTABLISHED TO OUR NORTH ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA. THE COMBINATION
OF THE HIGH TO OUR NORTH AND DRIER AIR MAY TEND TO KEEP THE AXIS
OF HEAVIEST RAIN ACROSS DOWNEAST MAINE THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH
LITTLE IF ANY RAIN REACHING FAR NORTHERN MAINE AND THE ST JOHN
VALLEY. THUS WILL FOCUS THE HIGHEST POPS FROM TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS. IN ADDITION TO THE HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL...NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE BY WEDNESDAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
AS LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE
AND TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA. WE SHOULD FINALLY START TO DRY OUT BY
FRIDAY NIGHT ALTHOUGH A FEW SHOWERS COULD LINGER RIGHT INTO
SATURDAY ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. COLDER WEATHER WILL FOLLOW BEHIND
A COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: BKN SKY CON EARLY...THEN CLEARING. VFR CONDITIONS ALL SITES.
WINDS WILL STAY UP OVER NIGHT THIS WILL KEEP FOG FROM DEVELOPING.

SHORT TERM: FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL BE DETERIORATING AS WE GO
THROUGH THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD. LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING
SLOWLY NORTHEAST FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA BY
LATE WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF RAIN DEVELOPING TUESDAY
AND CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY. WIDESPREAD MVFR AND OCCASIONAL IFR
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGH MOST OF THIS PERIOD. GUSTY EAST TO
NORTHEAST WINDS CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS WILL SUBSIDE TOMORROW AFTERNOON. AND SCA WILL REMAIN IN
EFFECT THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM: WIND/SEAS SHOULD BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. SEAS WILL BEGIN TO BUILD AS EAST GALE
FORCE WINDS DEVELOP BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MIGNONE






000
FXUS61 KCAR 200418
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1218 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE
WILL INTENSIFY SOUTH OF THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
UPDATE 0015 EDT: HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPERATURE...DEW POINT AND WINDS
BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS... NO OTHER CHANGES.


AT THE START OF THE PERIOD THERE WILL BE A SURFACE LOW OVER THE
NORTH ATLANTIC SOUTH OF CENTRAL NOVA SCOTIA...ITS ASSOCIATED UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE EXTENDED SOUTH THROUGH CENTRAL MAINE. A
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE DIGGING SOUTH TO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
COAST. THERE WILL BE A BROAD AREA OF LOWER PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TO CENTRAL CANADA TO THE NORTH. BY MON
MRNG...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH NEW
BRUNSWICK...THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD OUT INTO THE NORTH
ATLANTIC. THE CIRCULATION AROUND THE UPPER LOW...WILL GENERATE A
NEW TROUGH OF LOWER PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. WITH A
NEW SURFACE LOW FORMING OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. MON EVNG...THE END OF
THE PERIOD...THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO CIRCULATE AROUND THE
UPPER LOW MOVING EAST TO THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES. THE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC...WITH MAINE
BEING IN THE RETURN FLOW ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE.

CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE QUIET...WITH BOTH MAX AND
MIN TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LOADED A BLEND OF GFS/ECMWF/GEM/NAM THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR
MAX/MIN TEMPS...HRLY T/DP/WND/SKY/POP. LOADED RFCQPF...ADDED 15
PERCENT TO WNDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND...25 PERCENT OVER WATER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE REGION AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE
MID 20S TO AROUND 30 NORTH AND LOW TO MID 30S DOWNEAST. UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY WILL DIVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY CARVING OUT A CLOSED UPPER LOW ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION BY WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL SET US UP FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
RAINY WEATHER BY MID-WEEK. A VERTICALLY STACKED UPPER LOW TO OUR
SOUTH WILL RESULT IN A DEEP E TO SE FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC. THE BIG
QUESTION IS WHERE THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL EVENTUALLY
SET UP ACROSS OUR CWA. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALSO BE
ESTABLISHED TO OUR NORTH ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA. THE COMBINATION
OF THE HIGH TO OUR NORTH AND DRIER AIR MAY TEND TO KEEP THE AXIS
OF HEAVIEST RAIN ACROSS DOWNEAST MAINE THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH
LITTLE IF ANY RAIN REACHING FAR NORTHERN MAINE AND THE ST JOHN
VALLEY. THUS WILL FOCUS THE HIGHEST POPS FROM TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS. IN ADDITION TO THE HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL...NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE BY WEDNESDAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
AS LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE
AND TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA. WE SHOULD FINALLY START TO DRY OUT BY
FRIDAY NIGHT ALTHOUGH A FEW SHOWERS COULD LINGER RIGHT INTO
SATURDAY ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. COLDER WEATHER WILL FOLLOW BEHIND
A COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: BKN SKY CON EARLY...THEN CLEARING. VFR CONDITIONS ALL SITES.
WINDS WILL STAY UP OVER NIGHT THIS WILL KEEP FOG FROM DEVELOPING.

SHORT TERM: FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL BE DETERIORATING AS WE GO
THROUGH THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD. LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING
SLOWLY NORTHEAST FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA BY
LATE WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF RAIN DEVELOPING TUESDAY
AND CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY. WIDESPREAD MVFR AND OCCASIONAL IFR
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGH MOST OF THIS PERIOD. GUSTY EAST TO
NORTHEAST WINDS CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS WILL SUBSIDE TOMORROW AFTERNOON. AND SCA WILL REMAIN IN
EFFECT THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM: WIND/SEAS SHOULD BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. SEAS WILL BEGIN TO BUILD AS EAST GALE
FORCE WINDS DEVELOP BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MIGNONE







000
FXUS61 KGYX 200350
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1150 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT
AND WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE ON MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
AND WILL INTENSIFY SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND TUESDAY NIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE WILL MEANDER OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE DRIFTING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
MIDNIGHT UPDATE: ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES A BIT AS CLOUDS AND WINDS
REMAIN IN PLACE. DECREASING CONFIDENCE IN REACHING BELOW FREEZING
TEMPERATURES ON THE COAST... BUT IT WONT TAKE LONG FOR TEMPS TO
FALL UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND SO HAVE LEFT FREEZE WARNING IN PLACE.

9 PM UPDATE: CLOUDS AND ENOUGH WIND HAVE KEPT TEMPS FROM FALLING
OFF TOO QUICKLY. LATER TONIGHT AS WINDS LIGHTEN AND SKIES
PARTIALLY CLEAR TEMPS WILL BE ALLOWED TO FALL TO FCST LOWS. FREEZE
WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY.

PREV DISC:
WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST
OVERNIGHT. EXPECT CLOUDS DOWNWIND OF THE MOUNTAINS TO GRADUALLY
CLEAR DURING THE EVENING HOURS. ABUNDANT UPSTREAM MOISTURE AND
ROBUST UPSLOPE FLOW WILL KEEP CLOUDS IN THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING AFTER
MIDNIGHT. MODELS STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN BRINGING FREEZING
TEMPERATURES RIGHT DOWN TO THE COAST WHERE FREEZE WARNINGS HAVE
BEEN POSTED. DESPITE THE CLOUDS...NORTHERN ZONES WILL BOTTOM OUT
IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL SEND HIGH CLOUDS INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY.
SHOULD STILL SEE A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUN WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO
MID 50S SOUTH AND IN THE 40S NORTH.

CLOUDS WILL THICKEN MONDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DRIFTS
SOUTHEAST FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. WEAK OVER-RUNNING AHEAD
OF THIS SYSTEM MAY PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS IN WESTERN ZONES MONDAY
NIGHT BUT THESE SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT AND SPOTTY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PRIMARY DRIVER OF WEATHER IN THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST
WILL BE THE UPPER LOW WHICH CUTS OFF OVER THE NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY
AND SLOWLY SPINS OVER THE AREA BEFORE PULLING OUT ON FRIDAY. FAIR
AGREEMENT AMONGST THE COMPUTER MODELS THAT SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
WILL DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON TUESDAY... DRIFTING
TOWARD CAPE COD WEDNESDAY... THE GULF OF MAINE THURSDAY... AND
NOVA SCOTIA BY FRIDAY. SHOULD SEE A PRETTY GOOD STREAM OF MOISTURE
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC FLOWING NORTHWARD... WITH LIFT FROM THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CAUSING ALL THAT MOISTURE TO BE DEPOSITED AS
RAIN OVER MUCH OF NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. RAIN COULD BEGIN AS EARLY
AS TUESDAY AS BROAD LIFT AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW COULD BRING
SHOWERS. BUT THE HEAVIER RAIN WILL BE LIKELY WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT... WITH RAIN CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY. WITH LOW
PRESSURE PULLING OUT TO THE EAST ON FRIDAY THERE SHOULD BE SOME
IMPROVEMENT.

OVER THE 3-4 DAY PERIOD A TOTAL OF 1 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN IS
EXPECTED. IT IS STILL HARD TO SAY EXACTLY WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN
WILL FALL AS PINPOINTING WHERE THE RAIN BANDS WILL SET UP IN A CUT
OFF LOW TYPE SCENARIO LIKE THIS IS FAIRLY DIFFICULT THIS FAR OUT.
BUT IT APPEARS THAT MAINE MIGHT BE HIT A BIT HARDER THAN NEW
HAMPSHIRE WITH AREAS FROM PORTLAND NORTHWARD SEEING THE MOST RAIN.
WITH THIS MUCH RAIN FORECAST... FLOODING IS A POSSIBILITY.
ALTHOUGH RAIN RATES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE EXTREME... THE
DURATION OF HEAVY RAIN WOULD BE MORE LIKELY TO CAUSE RIVER
FLOODING AS STREAMS AND RIVERS SWELL FROM THE PROLONGED RAINFALL.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN SEASONABLY COOL FOR HIGHS BUT WILL BE
ABOVE NORMAL AT NIGHT DUE TO LOW LEVEL MOISTURE... CLOUD COVER...
AND PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...CONDITIONS BEGIN DETERIORATING ON TUESDAY TO MVFR/IFR
IN RAIN. SHOULD SEE IFR/LIFR COMMONPLACE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS
PERIODS OF RAIN CONTINUE. NORTH/WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS CONDITIONS
MAY BE A LITTLE BETTER DUE TO DOWNSLOPING WINDS. EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE ON FRIDAY EXCEPT FOR THE MOUNTAINS WHERE
UPSLOPING NORTHWEST WINDS MAY KEEP CLOUDS AND SHOWERS AROUND.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...CONTINUING SCA`S THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

LONG TERM...AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
AND TRACKS SLOWLY TOWARD CAPE COD AND THE GULF OF MAINE...
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN TO THE NORTH OF THE LOW. WINDS
CURRENTLY LOOK TO BE IN THE HIGH END OF THE ADVISORY RANGE TO LOW
END GALE ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT OVER THE OUTER
WATERS. THE NORTHEAST FLOW WILL ALSO BEGIN PRODUCING 10 FT WAVES.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE BY FRIDAY AS THE LOW PASSES TO THE EAST.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EDT MONDAY FOR MEZ023>028.
NH...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NHZ013-014.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CURTIS
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...




000
FXUS61 KGYX 200350
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1150 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT
AND WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE ON MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
AND WILL INTENSIFY SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND TUESDAY NIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE WILL MEANDER OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE DRIFTING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
MIDNIGHT UPDATE: ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES A BIT AS CLOUDS AND WINDS
REMAIN IN PLACE. DECREASING CONFIDENCE IN REACHING BELOW FREEZING
TEMPERATURES ON THE COAST... BUT IT WONT TAKE LONG FOR TEMPS TO
FALL UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND SO HAVE LEFT FREEZE WARNING IN PLACE.

9 PM UPDATE: CLOUDS AND ENOUGH WIND HAVE KEPT TEMPS FROM FALLING
OFF TOO QUICKLY. LATER TONIGHT AS WINDS LIGHTEN AND SKIES
PARTIALLY CLEAR TEMPS WILL BE ALLOWED TO FALL TO FCST LOWS. FREEZE
WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY.

PREV DISC:
WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST
OVERNIGHT. EXPECT CLOUDS DOWNWIND OF THE MOUNTAINS TO GRADUALLY
CLEAR DURING THE EVENING HOURS. ABUNDANT UPSTREAM MOISTURE AND
ROBUST UPSLOPE FLOW WILL KEEP CLOUDS IN THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING AFTER
MIDNIGHT. MODELS STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN BRINGING FREEZING
TEMPERATURES RIGHT DOWN TO THE COAST WHERE FREEZE WARNINGS HAVE
BEEN POSTED. DESPITE THE CLOUDS...NORTHERN ZONES WILL BOTTOM OUT
IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL SEND HIGH CLOUDS INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY.
SHOULD STILL SEE A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUN WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO
MID 50S SOUTH AND IN THE 40S NORTH.

CLOUDS WILL THICKEN MONDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DRIFTS
SOUTHEAST FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. WEAK OVER-RUNNING AHEAD
OF THIS SYSTEM MAY PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS IN WESTERN ZONES MONDAY
NIGHT BUT THESE SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT AND SPOTTY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PRIMARY DRIVER OF WEATHER IN THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST
WILL BE THE UPPER LOW WHICH CUTS OFF OVER THE NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY
AND SLOWLY SPINS OVER THE AREA BEFORE PULLING OUT ON FRIDAY. FAIR
AGREEMENT AMONGST THE COMPUTER MODELS THAT SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
WILL DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON TUESDAY... DRIFTING
TOWARD CAPE COD WEDNESDAY... THE GULF OF MAINE THURSDAY... AND
NOVA SCOTIA BY FRIDAY. SHOULD SEE A PRETTY GOOD STREAM OF MOISTURE
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC FLOWING NORTHWARD... WITH LIFT FROM THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CAUSING ALL THAT MOISTURE TO BE DEPOSITED AS
RAIN OVER MUCH OF NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. RAIN COULD BEGIN AS EARLY
AS TUESDAY AS BROAD LIFT AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW COULD BRING
SHOWERS. BUT THE HEAVIER RAIN WILL BE LIKELY WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT... WITH RAIN CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY. WITH LOW
PRESSURE PULLING OUT TO THE EAST ON FRIDAY THERE SHOULD BE SOME
IMPROVEMENT.

OVER THE 3-4 DAY PERIOD A TOTAL OF 1 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN IS
EXPECTED. IT IS STILL HARD TO SAY EXACTLY WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN
WILL FALL AS PINPOINTING WHERE THE RAIN BANDS WILL SET UP IN A CUT
OFF LOW TYPE SCENARIO LIKE THIS IS FAIRLY DIFFICULT THIS FAR OUT.
BUT IT APPEARS THAT MAINE MIGHT BE HIT A BIT HARDER THAN NEW
HAMPSHIRE WITH AREAS FROM PORTLAND NORTHWARD SEEING THE MOST RAIN.
WITH THIS MUCH RAIN FORECAST... FLOODING IS A POSSIBILITY.
ALTHOUGH RAIN RATES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE EXTREME... THE
DURATION OF HEAVY RAIN WOULD BE MORE LIKELY TO CAUSE RIVER
FLOODING AS STREAMS AND RIVERS SWELL FROM THE PROLONGED RAINFALL.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN SEASONABLY COOL FOR HIGHS BUT WILL BE
ABOVE NORMAL AT NIGHT DUE TO LOW LEVEL MOISTURE... CLOUD COVER...
AND PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...CONDITIONS BEGIN DETERIORATING ON TUESDAY TO MVFR/IFR
IN RAIN. SHOULD SEE IFR/LIFR COMMONPLACE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS
PERIODS OF RAIN CONTINUE. NORTH/WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS CONDITIONS
MAY BE A LITTLE BETTER DUE TO DOWNSLOPING WINDS. EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE ON FRIDAY EXCEPT FOR THE MOUNTAINS WHERE
UPSLOPING NORTHWEST WINDS MAY KEEP CLOUDS AND SHOWERS AROUND.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...CONTINUING SCA`S THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

LONG TERM...AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
AND TRACKS SLOWLY TOWARD CAPE COD AND THE GULF OF MAINE...
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN TO THE NORTH OF THE LOW. WINDS
CURRENTLY LOOK TO BE IN THE HIGH END OF THE ADVISORY RANGE TO LOW
END GALE ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT OVER THE OUTER
WATERS. THE NORTHEAST FLOW WILL ALSO BEGIN PRODUCING 10 FT WAVES.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE BY FRIDAY AS THE LOW PASSES TO THE EAST.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EDT MONDAY FOR MEZ023>028.
NH...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NHZ013-014.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CURTIS
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...



000
FXUS61 KCAR 200108
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
908 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE
WILL INTENSIFY SOUTH OF THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH MID WEEK.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
9 PM UPDATE...INCREASED CLOUD COVER THROUGH MID EVENING ACROSS THE
AREA. OTHERWISE, NO MAJOR CHANGES THIS HOUR.

AT THE START OF THE PERIOD THERE WILL BE A SURFACE LOW OVER THE
NORTH ATLANTIC SOUTH OF CENTRAL NOVA SCOTIA...ITS ASSOCIATED UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE EXTENDED SOUTH THROUGH CENTRAL MAINE. A
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE DIGGING SOUTH TO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
COAST. THERE WILL BE A BROAD AREA OF LOWER PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TO CENTRAL CANADA TO THE NORTH. BY MON
MRNG...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH NEW
BRUNSWICK...THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD OUT INTO THE NORTH
ATLANTIC. THE CIRCULATION AROUND THE UPPER LOW...WILL GENERATE A
NEW TROUGH OF LOWER PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. WITH A
NEW SURFACE LOW FORMING OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. MON EVNG...THE END OF
THE PERIOD...THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO CIRCULATE AROUND THE
UPPER LOW MOVING EAST TO THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES. THE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC...WITH MAINE
BEING IN THE RETURN FLOW ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE.

CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE QUIET...WITH BOTH MAX AND
MIN TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LOADED A BLEND OF GFS/ECMWF/GEM/NAM THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR
MAX/MIN TEMPS...HRLY T/DP/WND/SKY/POP. LOADED RFCQPF...ADDED 15
PERCENT TO WNDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND...25 PERCENT OVER WATER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE REGION AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE
MID 20S TO AROUND 30 NORTH AND LOW TO MID 30S DOWNEAST. UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY WILL DIVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY CARVING OUT A CLOSED UPPER LOW ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION BY WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL SET US UP FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
RAINY WEATHER BY MID-WEEK. A VERTICALLY STACKED UPPER LOW TO OUR
SOUTH WILL RESULT IN A DEEP E TO SE FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC. THE BIG
QUESTION IS WHERE THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL EVENTUALLY
SET UP ACROSS OUR CWA. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALSO BE
ESTABLISHED TO OUR NORTH ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA. THE COMBINATION
OF THE HIGH TO OUR NORTH AND DRIER AIR MAY TEND TO KEEP THE AXIS
OF HEAVIEST RAIN ACROSS DOWNEAST MAINE THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH
LITTLE IF ANY RAIN REACHING FAR NORTHERN MAINE AND THE ST JOHN
VALLEY. THUS WILL FOCUS THE HIGHEST POPS FROM TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS. IN ADDITION TO THE HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL...NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE BY WEDNESDAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
AS LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE
AND TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA. WE SHOULD FINALLY START TO DRY OUT BY
FRIDAY NIGHT ALTHOUGH A FEW SHOWERS COULD LINGER RIGHT INTO
SATURDAY ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. COLDER WEATHER WILL FOLLOW BEHIND
A COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: BKN SKY CON EARLY...THEN CLEARING. VFR CONDITIONS ALL SITES.
WINDS WILL STAY UP OVER NIGHT THIS WILL KEEP FOG FROM DEVELOPING.

SHORT TERM: FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL BE DETERIORATING AS WE GO
THROUGH THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD. LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING
SLOWLY NORTHEAST FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA BY
LATE WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF RAIN DEVELOPING TUESDAY
AND CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY. WIDESPREAD MVFR AND OCCASIONAL IFR
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGH MOST OF THIS PERIOD. GUSTY EAST TO
NORTHEAST WINDS CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS WILL SUBSIDE TOMORROW AFTERNOON. AND SCA WILL REMAIN IN
EFFECT THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM: WIND/SEAS SHOULD BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. SEAS WILL BEGIN TO BUILD AS EAST GALE
FORCE WINDS DEVELOP BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...NORTON
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...NORTON/DUDA
MARINE...NORTON/DUDA







000
FXUS61 KCAR 200108
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
908 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE
WILL INTENSIFY SOUTH OF THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH MID WEEK.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
9 PM UPDATE...INCREASED CLOUD COVER THROUGH MID EVENING ACROSS THE
AREA. OTHERWISE, NO MAJOR CHANGES THIS HOUR.

AT THE START OF THE PERIOD THERE WILL BE A SURFACE LOW OVER THE
NORTH ATLANTIC SOUTH OF CENTRAL NOVA SCOTIA...ITS ASSOCIATED UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE EXTENDED SOUTH THROUGH CENTRAL MAINE. A
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE DIGGING SOUTH TO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
COAST. THERE WILL BE A BROAD AREA OF LOWER PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TO CENTRAL CANADA TO THE NORTH. BY MON
MRNG...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH NEW
BRUNSWICK...THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD OUT INTO THE NORTH
ATLANTIC. THE CIRCULATION AROUND THE UPPER LOW...WILL GENERATE A
NEW TROUGH OF LOWER PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. WITH A
NEW SURFACE LOW FORMING OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. MON EVNG...THE END OF
THE PERIOD...THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO CIRCULATE AROUND THE
UPPER LOW MOVING EAST TO THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES. THE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC...WITH MAINE
BEING IN THE RETURN FLOW ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE.

CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE QUIET...WITH BOTH MAX AND
MIN TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LOADED A BLEND OF GFS/ECMWF/GEM/NAM THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR
MAX/MIN TEMPS...HRLY T/DP/WND/SKY/POP. LOADED RFCQPF...ADDED 15
PERCENT TO WNDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND...25 PERCENT OVER WATER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE REGION AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE
MID 20S TO AROUND 30 NORTH AND LOW TO MID 30S DOWNEAST. UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY WILL DIVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY CARVING OUT A CLOSED UPPER LOW ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION BY WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL SET US UP FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
RAINY WEATHER BY MID-WEEK. A VERTICALLY STACKED UPPER LOW TO OUR
SOUTH WILL RESULT IN A DEEP E TO SE FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC. THE BIG
QUESTION IS WHERE THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL EVENTUALLY
SET UP ACROSS OUR CWA. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALSO BE
ESTABLISHED TO OUR NORTH ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA. THE COMBINATION
OF THE HIGH TO OUR NORTH AND DRIER AIR MAY TEND TO KEEP THE AXIS
OF HEAVIEST RAIN ACROSS DOWNEAST MAINE THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH
LITTLE IF ANY RAIN REACHING FAR NORTHERN MAINE AND THE ST JOHN
VALLEY. THUS WILL FOCUS THE HIGHEST POPS FROM TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS. IN ADDITION TO THE HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL...NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE BY WEDNESDAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
AS LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE
AND TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA. WE SHOULD FINALLY START TO DRY OUT BY
FRIDAY NIGHT ALTHOUGH A FEW SHOWERS COULD LINGER RIGHT INTO
SATURDAY ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. COLDER WEATHER WILL FOLLOW BEHIND
A COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: BKN SKY CON EARLY...THEN CLEARING. VFR CONDITIONS ALL SITES.
WINDS WILL STAY UP OVER NIGHT THIS WILL KEEP FOG FROM DEVELOPING.

SHORT TERM: FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL BE DETERIORATING AS WE GO
THROUGH THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD. LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING
SLOWLY NORTHEAST FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA BY
LATE WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF RAIN DEVELOPING TUESDAY
AND CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY. WIDESPREAD MVFR AND OCCASIONAL IFR
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGH MOST OF THIS PERIOD. GUSTY EAST TO
NORTHEAST WINDS CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS WILL SUBSIDE TOMORROW AFTERNOON. AND SCA WILL REMAIN IN
EFFECT THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM: WIND/SEAS SHOULD BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. SEAS WILL BEGIN TO BUILD AS EAST GALE
FORCE WINDS DEVELOP BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...NORTON
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...NORTON/DUDA
MARINE...NORTON/DUDA







000
FXUS61 KCAR 200108
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
908 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE
WILL INTENSIFY SOUTH OF THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH MID WEEK.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
9 PM UPDATE...INCREASED CLOUD COVER THROUGH MID EVENING ACROSS THE
AREA. OTHERWISE, NO MAJOR CHANGES THIS HOUR.

AT THE START OF THE PERIOD THERE WILL BE A SURFACE LOW OVER THE
NORTH ATLANTIC SOUTH OF CENTRAL NOVA SCOTIA...ITS ASSOCIATED UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE EXTENDED SOUTH THROUGH CENTRAL MAINE. A
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE DIGGING SOUTH TO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
COAST. THERE WILL BE A BROAD AREA OF LOWER PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TO CENTRAL CANADA TO THE NORTH. BY MON
MRNG...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH NEW
BRUNSWICK...THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD OUT INTO THE NORTH
ATLANTIC. THE CIRCULATION AROUND THE UPPER LOW...WILL GENERATE A
NEW TROUGH OF LOWER PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. WITH A
NEW SURFACE LOW FORMING OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. MON EVNG...THE END OF
THE PERIOD...THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO CIRCULATE AROUND THE
UPPER LOW MOVING EAST TO THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES. THE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC...WITH MAINE
BEING IN THE RETURN FLOW ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE.

CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE QUIET...WITH BOTH MAX AND
MIN TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LOADED A BLEND OF GFS/ECMWF/GEM/NAM THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR
MAX/MIN TEMPS...HRLY T/DP/WND/SKY/POP. LOADED RFCQPF...ADDED 15
PERCENT TO WNDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND...25 PERCENT OVER WATER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE REGION AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE
MID 20S TO AROUND 30 NORTH AND LOW TO MID 30S DOWNEAST. UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY WILL DIVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY CARVING OUT A CLOSED UPPER LOW ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION BY WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL SET US UP FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
RAINY WEATHER BY MID-WEEK. A VERTICALLY STACKED UPPER LOW TO OUR
SOUTH WILL RESULT IN A DEEP E TO SE FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC. THE BIG
QUESTION IS WHERE THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL EVENTUALLY
SET UP ACROSS OUR CWA. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALSO BE
ESTABLISHED TO OUR NORTH ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA. THE COMBINATION
OF THE HIGH TO OUR NORTH AND DRIER AIR MAY TEND TO KEEP THE AXIS
OF HEAVIEST RAIN ACROSS DOWNEAST MAINE THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH
LITTLE IF ANY RAIN REACHING FAR NORTHERN MAINE AND THE ST JOHN
VALLEY. THUS WILL FOCUS THE HIGHEST POPS FROM TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS. IN ADDITION TO THE HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL...NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE BY WEDNESDAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
AS LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE
AND TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA. WE SHOULD FINALLY START TO DRY OUT BY
FRIDAY NIGHT ALTHOUGH A FEW SHOWERS COULD LINGER RIGHT INTO
SATURDAY ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. COLDER WEATHER WILL FOLLOW BEHIND
A COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: BKN SKY CON EARLY...THEN CLEARING. VFR CONDITIONS ALL SITES.
WINDS WILL STAY UP OVER NIGHT THIS WILL KEEP FOG FROM DEVELOPING.

SHORT TERM: FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL BE DETERIORATING AS WE GO
THROUGH THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD. LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING
SLOWLY NORTHEAST FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA BY
LATE WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF RAIN DEVELOPING TUESDAY
AND CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY. WIDESPREAD MVFR AND OCCASIONAL IFR
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGH MOST OF THIS PERIOD. GUSTY EAST TO
NORTHEAST WINDS CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS WILL SUBSIDE TOMORROW AFTERNOON. AND SCA WILL REMAIN IN
EFFECT THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM: WIND/SEAS SHOULD BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. SEAS WILL BEGIN TO BUILD AS EAST GALE
FORCE WINDS DEVELOP BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...NORTON
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...NORTON/DUDA
MARINE...NORTON/DUDA







000
FXUS61 KCAR 200108
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
908 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE
WILL INTENSIFY SOUTH OF THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH MID WEEK.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
9 PM UPDATE...INCREASED CLOUD COVER THROUGH MID EVENING ACROSS THE
AREA. OTHERWISE, NO MAJOR CHANGES THIS HOUR.

AT THE START OF THE PERIOD THERE WILL BE A SURFACE LOW OVER THE
NORTH ATLANTIC SOUTH OF CENTRAL NOVA SCOTIA...ITS ASSOCIATED UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE EXTENDED SOUTH THROUGH CENTRAL MAINE. A
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE DIGGING SOUTH TO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
COAST. THERE WILL BE A BROAD AREA OF LOWER PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TO CENTRAL CANADA TO THE NORTH. BY MON
MRNG...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH NEW
BRUNSWICK...THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD OUT INTO THE NORTH
ATLANTIC. THE CIRCULATION AROUND THE UPPER LOW...WILL GENERATE A
NEW TROUGH OF LOWER PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. WITH A
NEW SURFACE LOW FORMING OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. MON EVNG...THE END OF
THE PERIOD...THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO CIRCULATE AROUND THE
UPPER LOW MOVING EAST TO THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES. THE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC...WITH MAINE
BEING IN THE RETURN FLOW ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE.

CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE QUIET...WITH BOTH MAX AND
MIN TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LOADED A BLEND OF GFS/ECMWF/GEM/NAM THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR
MAX/MIN TEMPS...HRLY T/DP/WND/SKY/POP. LOADED RFCQPF...ADDED 15
PERCENT TO WNDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND...25 PERCENT OVER WATER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE REGION AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE
MID 20S TO AROUND 30 NORTH AND LOW TO MID 30S DOWNEAST. UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY WILL DIVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY CARVING OUT A CLOSED UPPER LOW ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION BY WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL SET US UP FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
RAINY WEATHER BY MID-WEEK. A VERTICALLY STACKED UPPER LOW TO OUR
SOUTH WILL RESULT IN A DEEP E TO SE FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC. THE BIG
QUESTION IS WHERE THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL EVENTUALLY
SET UP ACROSS OUR CWA. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALSO BE
ESTABLISHED TO OUR NORTH ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA. THE COMBINATION
OF THE HIGH TO OUR NORTH AND DRIER AIR MAY TEND TO KEEP THE AXIS
OF HEAVIEST RAIN ACROSS DOWNEAST MAINE THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH
LITTLE IF ANY RAIN REACHING FAR NORTHERN MAINE AND THE ST JOHN
VALLEY. THUS WILL FOCUS THE HIGHEST POPS FROM TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS. IN ADDITION TO THE HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL...NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE BY WEDNESDAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
AS LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE
AND TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA. WE SHOULD FINALLY START TO DRY OUT BY
FRIDAY NIGHT ALTHOUGH A FEW SHOWERS COULD LINGER RIGHT INTO
SATURDAY ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. COLDER WEATHER WILL FOLLOW BEHIND
A COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: BKN SKY CON EARLY...THEN CLEARING. VFR CONDITIONS ALL SITES.
WINDS WILL STAY UP OVER NIGHT THIS WILL KEEP FOG FROM DEVELOPING.

SHORT TERM: FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL BE DETERIORATING AS WE GO
THROUGH THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD. LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING
SLOWLY NORTHEAST FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA BY
LATE WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF RAIN DEVELOPING TUESDAY
AND CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY. WIDESPREAD MVFR AND OCCASIONAL IFR
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGH MOST OF THIS PERIOD. GUSTY EAST TO
NORTHEAST WINDS CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS WILL SUBSIDE TOMORROW AFTERNOON. AND SCA WILL REMAIN IN
EFFECT THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM: WIND/SEAS SHOULD BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. SEAS WILL BEGIN TO BUILD AS EAST GALE
FORCE WINDS DEVELOP BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...NORTON
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...NORTON/DUDA
MARINE...NORTON/DUDA







000
FXUS61 KGYX 200102
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
902 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT
AND WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE ON MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
AND WILL INTENSIFY SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND TUESDAY NIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE WILL MEANDER OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE DRIFTING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
9 PM UPDATE: CLOUDS AND ENOUGH WIND HAVE KEPT TEMPS FROM FALLING
OFF TOO QUICKLY. LATER TONIGHT AS WINDS LIGHTEN AND SKIES
PARTIALLY CLEAR TEMPS WILL BE ALLOWED TO FALL TO FCST LOWS. FREEZE
WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY.

PREV DISC:
WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST
OVERNIGHT. EXPECT CLOUDS DOWNWIND OF THE MOUNTAINS TO GRADUALLY
CLEAR DURING THE EVENING HOURS. ABUNDANT UPSTREAM MOISTURE AND
ROBUST UPSLOPE FLOW WILL KEEP CLOUDS IN THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING AFTER
MIDNIGHT. MODELS STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN BRINGING FREEZING
TEMPERATURES RIGHT DOWN TO THE COAST WHERE FREEZE WARNINGS HAVE
BEEN POSTED. DESPITE THE CLOUDS...NORTHERN ZONES WILL BOTTOM OUT
IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL SEND HIGH CLOUDS INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY.
SHOULD STILL SEE A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUN WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO
MID 50S SOUTH AND IN THE 40S NORTH.

CLOUDS WILL THICKEN MONDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DRIFTS
SOUTHEAST FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. WEAK OVER-RUNNING AHEAD
OF THIS SYSTEM MAY PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS IN WESTERN ZONES MONDAY
NIGHT BUT THESE SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT AND SPOTTY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PRIMARY DRIVER OF WEATHER IN THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST
WILL BE THE UPPER LOW WHICH CUTS OFF OVER THE NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY
AND SLOWLY SPINS OVER THE AREA BEFORE PULLING OUT ON FRIDAY. FAIR
AGREEMENT AMONGST THE COMPUTER MODELS THAT SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
WILL DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON TUESDAY... DRIFTING
TOWARD CAPE COD WEDNESDAY... THE GULF OF MAINE THURSDAY... AND
NOVA SCOTIA BY FRIDAY. SHOULD SEE A PRETTY GOOD STREAM OF MOISTURE
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC FLOWING NORTHWARD... WITH LIFT FROM THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CAUSING ALL THAT MOISTURE TO BE DEPOSITED AS
RAIN OVER MUCH OF NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. RAIN COULD BEGIN AS EARLY
AS TUESDAY AS BROAD LIFT AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW COULD BRING
SHOWERS. BUT THE HEAVIER RAIN WILL BE LIKELY WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT... WITH RAIN CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY. WITH LOW
PRESSURE PULLING OUT TO THE EAST ON FRIDAY THERE SHOULD BE SOME
IMPROVEMENT.

OVER THE 3-4 DAY PERIOD A TOTAL OF 1 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN IS
EXPECTED. IT IS STILL HARD TO SAY EXACTLY WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN
WILL FALL AS PINPOINTING WHERE THE RAIN BANDS WILL SET UP IN A CUT
OFF LOW TYPE SCENARIO LIKE THIS IS FAIRLY DIFFICULT THIS FAR OUT.
BUT IT APPEARS THAT MAINE MIGHT BE HIT A BIT HARDER THAN NEW
HAMPSHIRE WITH AREAS FROM PORTLAND NORTHWARD SEEING THE MOST RAIN.
WITH THIS MUCH RAIN FORECAST... FLOODING IS A POSSIBILITY.
ALTHOUGH RAIN RATES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE EXTREME... THE
DURATION OF HEAVY RAIN WOULD BE MORE LIKELY TO CAUSE RIVER
FLOODING AS STREAMS AND RIVERS SWELL FROM THE PROLONGED RAINFALL.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN SEASONABLY COOL FOR HIGHS BUT WILL BE
ABOVE NORMAL AT NIGHT DUE TO LOW LEVEL MOISTURE... CLOUD COVER...
AND PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...CONDITIONS BEGIN DETERIORATING ON TUESDAY TO MVFR/IFR
IN RAIN. SHOULD SEE IFR/LIFR COMMONPLACE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS
PERIODS OF RAIN CONTINUE. NORTH/WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS CONDITIONS
MAY BE A LITTLE BETTER DUE TO DOWNSLOPING WINDS. EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE ON FRIDAY EXCEPT FOR THE MOUNTAINS WHERE
UPSLOPING NORTHWEST WINDS MAY KEEP CLOUDS AND SHOWERS AROUND.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...CONTINUING SCA`S THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

LONG TERM...AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
AND TRACKS SLOWLY TOWARD CAPE COD AND THE GULF OF MAINE...
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN TO THE NORTH OF THE LOW. WINDS
CURRENTLY LOOK TO BE IN THE HIGH END OF THE ADVISORY RANGE TO LOW
END GALE ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT OVER THE OUTER
WATERS. THE NORTHEAST FLOW WILL ALSO BEGIN PRODUCING 10 FT WAVES.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE BY FRIDAY AS THE LOW PASSES TO THE EAST.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 7 AM EDT MONDAY FOR MEZ023>028.
NH...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 7 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NHZ013-014.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KCAR 192200
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
600 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE
WILL INTENSIFY SOUTH OF THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH MID WEEK.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
6 PM UPDATE...ADDED A FEW SPRINKLES IN EASTERN AREAS AND INCREASED
CLOUD COVER EARLY THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE, NO MAJOR CHANGES THIS
HOUR. STILL EXPECTING SKIES TO GRADUALLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT.

AT THE START OF THE PERIOD THERE WILL BE A SURFACE LOW OVER THE
NORTH ATLANTIC SOUTH OF CENTRAL NOVA SCOTIA...ITS ASSOCIATED UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE EXTENDED SOUTH THROUGH CENTRAL MAINE. A
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE DIGGING SOUTH TO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
COAST. THERE WILL BE A BROAD AREA OF LOWER PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TO CENTRAL CANADA TO THE NORTH. BY MON
MRNG...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH NEW
BRUNSWICK...THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD OUT INTO THE NORTH
ATLANTIC. THE CIRCULATION AROUND THE UPPER LOW...WILL GENERATE A
NEW TROUGH OF LOWER PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. WITH A
NEW SURFACE LOW FORMING OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. MON EVNG...THE END OF
THE PERIOD...THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO CIRCULATE AROUND THE
UPPER LOW MOVING EAST TO THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES. THE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC...WITH MAINE
BEING IN THE RETURN FLOW ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE.

CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE QUIET...WITH BOTH MAX AND
MIN TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LOADED A BLEND OF GFS/ECMWF/GEM/NAM THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR
MAX/MIN TEMPS...HRLY T/DP/WND/SKY/POP. LOADED RFCQPF...ADDED 15
PERCENT TO WNDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND...25 PERCENT OVER WATER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE REGION AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE
MID 20S TO AROUND 30 NORTH AND LOW TO MID 30S DOWNEAST. UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY WILL DIVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY CARVING OUT A CLOSED UPPER LOW ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION BY WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL SET US UP FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
RAINY WEATHER BY MID-WEEK. A VERTICALLY STACKED UPPER LOW TO OUR
SOUTH WILL RESULT IN A DEEP E TO SE FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC. THE BIG
QUESTION IS WHERE THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL EVENTUALLY
SET UP ACROSS OUR CWA. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALSO BE
ESTABLISHED TO OUR NORTH ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA. THE COMBINATION
OF THE HIGH TO OUR NORTH AND DRIER AIR MAY TEND TO KEEP THE AXIS
OF HEAVIEST RAIN ACROSS DOWNEAST MAINE THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH
LITTLE IF ANY RAIN REACHING FAR NORTHERN MAINE AND THE ST JOHN
VALLEY. THUS WILL FOCUS THE HIGHEST POPS FROM TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS. IN ADDITION TO THE HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL...NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE BY WEDNESDAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
AS LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE
AND TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA. WE SHOULD FINALLY START TO DRY OUT BY
FRIDAY NIGHT ALTHOUGH A FEW SHOWERS COULD LINGER RIGHT INTO
SATURDAY ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. COLDER WEATHER WILL FOLLOW BEHIND
A COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: BKN SKY CON EARLY...THEN CLEARING. VFR CONDITIONS ALL SITES.
WINDS WILL STAY UP OVER NIGHT THIS WILL KEEP FOG FROM DEVELOPING.

SHORT TERM: FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL BE DETERIORATING AS WE GO
THROUGH THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD. LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING
SLOWLY NORTHEAST FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA BY
LATE WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF RAIN DEVELOPING TUESDAY
AND CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY. WIDESPREAD MVFR AND OCCASIONAL IFR
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGH MOST OF THIS PERIOD. GUSTY EAST TO
NORTHEAST WINDS CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS WILL SUBSIDE TOMORROW AFTERNOON. AND SCA WILL REMAIN IN
EFFECT THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM: WIND/SEAS SHOULD BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. SEAS WILL BEGIN TO BUILD AS EAST GALE
FORCE WINDS DEVELOP BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...NORTON/BLOOMER
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...NORTON/DUDA
MARINE...NORTON/DUDA






000
FXUS61 KCAR 192200
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
600 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE
WILL INTENSIFY SOUTH OF THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH MID WEEK.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
6 PM UPDATE...ADDED A FEW SPRINKLES IN EASTERN AREAS AND INCREASED
CLOUD COVER EARLY THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE, NO MAJOR CHANGES THIS
HOUR. STILL EXPECTING SKIES TO GRADUALLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT.

AT THE START OF THE PERIOD THERE WILL BE A SURFACE LOW OVER THE
NORTH ATLANTIC SOUTH OF CENTRAL NOVA SCOTIA...ITS ASSOCIATED UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE EXTENDED SOUTH THROUGH CENTRAL MAINE. A
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE DIGGING SOUTH TO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
COAST. THERE WILL BE A BROAD AREA OF LOWER PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TO CENTRAL CANADA TO THE NORTH. BY MON
MRNG...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH NEW
BRUNSWICK...THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD OUT INTO THE NORTH
ATLANTIC. THE CIRCULATION AROUND THE UPPER LOW...WILL GENERATE A
NEW TROUGH OF LOWER PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. WITH A
NEW SURFACE LOW FORMING OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. MON EVNG...THE END OF
THE PERIOD...THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO CIRCULATE AROUND THE
UPPER LOW MOVING EAST TO THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES. THE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC...WITH MAINE
BEING IN THE RETURN FLOW ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE.

CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE QUIET...WITH BOTH MAX AND
MIN TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LOADED A BLEND OF GFS/ECMWF/GEM/NAM THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR
MAX/MIN TEMPS...HRLY T/DP/WND/SKY/POP. LOADED RFCQPF...ADDED 15
PERCENT TO WNDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND...25 PERCENT OVER WATER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE REGION AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE
MID 20S TO AROUND 30 NORTH AND LOW TO MID 30S DOWNEAST. UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY WILL DIVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY CARVING OUT A CLOSED UPPER LOW ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION BY WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL SET US UP FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
RAINY WEATHER BY MID-WEEK. A VERTICALLY STACKED UPPER LOW TO OUR
SOUTH WILL RESULT IN A DEEP E TO SE FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC. THE BIG
QUESTION IS WHERE THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL EVENTUALLY
SET UP ACROSS OUR CWA. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALSO BE
ESTABLISHED TO OUR NORTH ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA. THE COMBINATION
OF THE HIGH TO OUR NORTH AND DRIER AIR MAY TEND TO KEEP THE AXIS
OF HEAVIEST RAIN ACROSS DOWNEAST MAINE THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH
LITTLE IF ANY RAIN REACHING FAR NORTHERN MAINE AND THE ST JOHN
VALLEY. THUS WILL FOCUS THE HIGHEST POPS FROM TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS. IN ADDITION TO THE HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL...NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE BY WEDNESDAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
AS LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE
AND TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA. WE SHOULD FINALLY START TO DRY OUT BY
FRIDAY NIGHT ALTHOUGH A FEW SHOWERS COULD LINGER RIGHT INTO
SATURDAY ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. COLDER WEATHER WILL FOLLOW BEHIND
A COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: BKN SKY CON EARLY...THEN CLEARING. VFR CONDITIONS ALL SITES.
WINDS WILL STAY UP OVER NIGHT THIS WILL KEEP FOG FROM DEVELOPING.

SHORT TERM: FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL BE DETERIORATING AS WE GO
THROUGH THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD. LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING
SLOWLY NORTHEAST FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA BY
LATE WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF RAIN DEVELOPING TUESDAY
AND CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY. WIDESPREAD MVFR AND OCCASIONAL IFR
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGH MOST OF THIS PERIOD. GUSTY EAST TO
NORTHEAST WINDS CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS WILL SUBSIDE TOMORROW AFTERNOON. AND SCA WILL REMAIN IN
EFFECT THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM: WIND/SEAS SHOULD BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. SEAS WILL BEGIN TO BUILD AS EAST GALE
FORCE WINDS DEVELOP BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...NORTON/BLOOMER
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...NORTON/DUDA
MARINE...NORTON/DUDA







000
FXUS61 KCAR 191915
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
315 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE
WILL INTENSIFY SOUTH OF THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD THERE WILL BE A SURFACE LOW OVER THE
NORTH ATLANTIC SOUTH OF CENTRAL NOVA SCOTIA...ITS ASSOCIATED UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE EXTENDED SOUTH THROUGH CENTRAL MAINE. A
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE DIGGING SOUTH TO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
COAST. THERE WILL BE A BROAD AREA OF LOWER PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TO CENTRAL CANADA TO THE NORTH. BY MON
MRNG...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH NEW
BRUNSWICK...THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD OUT INTO THE NORTH
ATLANTIC. THE CIRCULATION AROUND THE UPPER LOW...WILL GENERATE A
NEW TROUGH OF LOWER PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. WITH A
NEW SURFACE LOW FORMING OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. MON EVNG...THE END OF
THE PERIOD...THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO CIRCULATE AROUND THE
UPPER LOW MOVING EAST TO THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES. THE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC...WITH MAINE
BEING IN THE RETURN FLOW ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE.

CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE QUIET...WITH BOTH MAX AND
MIN TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LOADED A BLEND OF GFS/ECMWF/GEM/NAM THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR
MAX/MIN TEMPS...HRLY T/DP/WND/SKY/POP. LOADED RFCQPF...ADDED 15
PERCENT TO WNDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND...25 PERCENT OVER WATER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE REGION AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE
MID 20S TO AROUND 30 NORTH AND LOW TO MID 30S DOWNEAST. UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY WILL DIVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY CARVING OUT A CLOSED UPPER LOW ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION BY WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL SET US UP FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
RAINY WEATHER BY MID-WEEK. A VERTICALLY STACKED UPPER LOW TO OUR
SOUTH WILL RESULT IN A DEEP E TO SE FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC. THE BIG
QUESTION IS WHERE THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL EVENTUALLY
SET UP ACROSS OUR CWA. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALSO BE
ESTABLISHED TO OUR NORTH ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA. THE COMBINATION
OF THE HIGH TO OUR NORTH AND DRIER AIR MAY TEND TO KEEP THE AXIS
OF HEAVIEST RAIN ACROSS DOWNEAST MAINE THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH
LITTLE IF ANY RAIN REACHING FAR NORTHERN MAINE AND THE ST JOHN
VALLEY. THUS WILL FOCUS THE HIGHEST POPS FROM TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS. IN ADDITION TO THE HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL...NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE BY WEDNESDAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
AS LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE
AND TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA. WE SHOULD FINALLY START TO DRY OUT BY
FRIDAY NIGHT ALTHOUGH A FEW SHOWERS COULD LINGER RIGHT INTO
SATURDAY ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. COLDER WEATHER WILL FOLLOW BEHIND
A COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: BKN SKY CON EARLY...THEN CLEARING. VFR CONDITIONS ALL SITES.
WINDS WILL STAY UP OVER NIGHT THIS WILL KEEP FOG FROM DEVELOPING.

SHORT TERM: FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL BE DETERIORATING AS WE GO
THROUGH THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD. LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING
SLOWLY NORTHEAST FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA BY
LATE WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF RAIN DEVELOPING TUESDAY
AND CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY. WIDESPREAD MVFR AND OCCASIONAL IFR
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGH MOST OF THIS PERIOD. GUSTY EAST TO
NORTHEAST WINDS CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS WILL SUBSIDE TOMORROW AFTERNOON. AND SCA WILL REMAIN IN
EFFECT THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM: WIND/SEAS SHOULD BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. SEAS WILL BEGIN TO BUILD AS EAST GALE
FORCE WINDS DEVELOP BY WEDNESDAY.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...NORTON
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...NORTON/DUDA
MARINE...NORTON/DUDA








000
FXUS61 KCAR 191915
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
315 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE
WILL INTENSIFY SOUTH OF THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD THERE WILL BE A SURFACE LOW OVER THE
NORTH ATLANTIC SOUTH OF CENTRAL NOVA SCOTIA...ITS ASSOCIATED UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE EXTENDED SOUTH THROUGH CENTRAL MAINE. A
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE DIGGING SOUTH TO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
COAST. THERE WILL BE A BROAD AREA OF LOWER PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TO CENTRAL CANADA TO THE NORTH. BY MON
MRNG...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH NEW
BRUNSWICK...THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD OUT INTO THE NORTH
ATLANTIC. THE CIRCULATION AROUND THE UPPER LOW...WILL GENERATE A
NEW TROUGH OF LOWER PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. WITH A
NEW SURFACE LOW FORMING OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. MON EVNG...THE END OF
THE PERIOD...THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO CIRCULATE AROUND THE
UPPER LOW MOVING EAST TO THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES. THE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC...WITH MAINE
BEING IN THE RETURN FLOW ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE.

CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE QUIET...WITH BOTH MAX AND
MIN TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LOADED A BLEND OF GFS/ECMWF/GEM/NAM THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR
MAX/MIN TEMPS...HRLY T/DP/WND/SKY/POP. LOADED RFCQPF...ADDED 15
PERCENT TO WNDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND...25 PERCENT OVER WATER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE REGION AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE
MID 20S TO AROUND 30 NORTH AND LOW TO MID 30S DOWNEAST. UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY WILL DIVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY CARVING OUT A CLOSED UPPER LOW ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION BY WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL SET US UP FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
RAINY WEATHER BY MID-WEEK. A VERTICALLY STACKED UPPER LOW TO OUR
SOUTH WILL RESULT IN A DEEP E TO SE FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC. THE BIG
QUESTION IS WHERE THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL EVENTUALLY
SET UP ACROSS OUR CWA. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALSO BE
ESTABLISHED TO OUR NORTH ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA. THE COMBINATION
OF THE HIGH TO OUR NORTH AND DRIER AIR MAY TEND TO KEEP THE AXIS
OF HEAVIEST RAIN ACROSS DOWNEAST MAINE THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH
LITTLE IF ANY RAIN REACHING FAR NORTHERN MAINE AND THE ST JOHN
VALLEY. THUS WILL FOCUS THE HIGHEST POPS FROM TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS. IN ADDITION TO THE HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL...NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE BY WEDNESDAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
AS LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE
AND TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA. WE SHOULD FINALLY START TO DRY OUT BY
FRIDAY NIGHT ALTHOUGH A FEW SHOWERS COULD LINGER RIGHT INTO
SATURDAY ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. COLDER WEATHER WILL FOLLOW BEHIND
A COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: BKN SKY CON EARLY...THEN CLEARING. VFR CONDITIONS ALL SITES.
WINDS WILL STAY UP OVER NIGHT THIS WILL KEEP FOG FROM DEVELOPING.

SHORT TERM: FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL BE DETERIORATING AS WE GO
THROUGH THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD. LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING
SLOWLY NORTHEAST FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA BY
LATE WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF RAIN DEVELOPING TUESDAY
AND CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY. WIDESPREAD MVFR AND OCCASIONAL IFR
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGH MOST OF THIS PERIOD. GUSTY EAST TO
NORTHEAST WINDS CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS WILL SUBSIDE TOMORROW AFTERNOON. AND SCA WILL REMAIN IN
EFFECT THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM: WIND/SEAS SHOULD BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. SEAS WILL BEGIN TO BUILD AS EAST GALE
FORCE WINDS DEVELOP BY WEDNESDAY.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...NORTON
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...NORTON/DUDA
MARINE...NORTON/DUDA








000
FXUS61 KCAR 191915
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
315 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE
WILL INTENSIFY SOUTH OF THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD THERE WILL BE A SURFACE LOW OVER THE
NORTH ATLANTIC SOUTH OF CENTRAL NOVA SCOTIA...ITS ASSOCIATED UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE EXTENDED SOUTH THROUGH CENTRAL MAINE. A
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE DIGGING SOUTH TO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
COAST. THERE WILL BE A BROAD AREA OF LOWER PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TO CENTRAL CANADA TO THE NORTH. BY MON
MRNG...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH NEW
BRUNSWICK...THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD OUT INTO THE NORTH
ATLANTIC. THE CIRCULATION AROUND THE UPPER LOW...WILL GENERATE A
NEW TROUGH OF LOWER PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. WITH A
NEW SURFACE LOW FORMING OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. MON EVNG...THE END OF
THE PERIOD...THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO CIRCULATE AROUND THE
UPPER LOW MOVING EAST TO THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES. THE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC...WITH MAINE
BEING IN THE RETURN FLOW ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE.

CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE QUIET...WITH BOTH MAX AND
MIN TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LOADED A BLEND OF GFS/ECMWF/GEM/NAM THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR
MAX/MIN TEMPS...HRLY T/DP/WND/SKY/POP. LOADED RFCQPF...ADDED 15
PERCENT TO WNDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND...25 PERCENT OVER WATER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE REGION AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE
MID 20S TO AROUND 30 NORTH AND LOW TO MID 30S DOWNEAST. UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY WILL DIVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY CARVING OUT A CLOSED UPPER LOW ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION BY WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL SET US UP FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
RAINY WEATHER BY MID-WEEK. A VERTICALLY STACKED UPPER LOW TO OUR
SOUTH WILL RESULT IN A DEEP E TO SE FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC. THE BIG
QUESTION IS WHERE THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL EVENTUALLY
SET UP ACROSS OUR CWA. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALSO BE
ESTABLISHED TO OUR NORTH ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA. THE COMBINATION
OF THE HIGH TO OUR NORTH AND DRIER AIR MAY TEND TO KEEP THE AXIS
OF HEAVIEST RAIN ACROSS DOWNEAST MAINE THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH
LITTLE IF ANY RAIN REACHING FAR NORTHERN MAINE AND THE ST JOHN
VALLEY. THUS WILL FOCUS THE HIGHEST POPS FROM TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS. IN ADDITION TO THE HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL...NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE BY WEDNESDAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
AS LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE
AND TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA. WE SHOULD FINALLY START TO DRY OUT BY
FRIDAY NIGHT ALTHOUGH A FEW SHOWERS COULD LINGER RIGHT INTO
SATURDAY ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. COLDER WEATHER WILL FOLLOW BEHIND
A COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: BKN SKY CON EARLY...THEN CLEARING. VFR CONDITIONS ALL SITES.
WINDS WILL STAY UP OVER NIGHT THIS WILL KEEP FOG FROM DEVELOPING.

SHORT TERM: FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL BE DETERIORATING AS WE GO
THROUGH THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD. LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING
SLOWLY NORTHEAST FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA BY
LATE WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF RAIN DEVELOPING TUESDAY
AND CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY. WIDESPREAD MVFR AND OCCASIONAL IFR
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGH MOST OF THIS PERIOD. GUSTY EAST TO
NORTHEAST WINDS CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS WILL SUBSIDE TOMORROW AFTERNOON. AND SCA WILL REMAIN IN
EFFECT THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM: WIND/SEAS SHOULD BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. SEAS WILL BEGIN TO BUILD AS EAST GALE
FORCE WINDS DEVELOP BY WEDNESDAY.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...NORTON
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...NORTON/DUDA
MARINE...NORTON/DUDA








000
FXUS61 KCAR 191915
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
315 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE
WILL INTENSIFY SOUTH OF THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD THERE WILL BE A SURFACE LOW OVER THE
NORTH ATLANTIC SOUTH OF CENTRAL NOVA SCOTIA...ITS ASSOCIATED UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE EXTENDED SOUTH THROUGH CENTRAL MAINE. A
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE DIGGING SOUTH TO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
COAST. THERE WILL BE A BROAD AREA OF LOWER PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TO CENTRAL CANADA TO THE NORTH. BY MON
MRNG...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH NEW
BRUNSWICK...THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD OUT INTO THE NORTH
ATLANTIC. THE CIRCULATION AROUND THE UPPER LOW...WILL GENERATE A
NEW TROUGH OF LOWER PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. WITH A
NEW SURFACE LOW FORMING OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. MON EVNG...THE END OF
THE PERIOD...THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO CIRCULATE AROUND THE
UPPER LOW MOVING EAST TO THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES. THE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC...WITH MAINE
BEING IN THE RETURN FLOW ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE.

CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE QUIET...WITH BOTH MAX AND
MIN TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LOADED A BLEND OF GFS/ECMWF/GEM/NAM THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR
MAX/MIN TEMPS...HRLY T/DP/WND/SKY/POP. LOADED RFCQPF...ADDED 15
PERCENT TO WNDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND...25 PERCENT OVER WATER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE REGION AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE
MID 20S TO AROUND 30 NORTH AND LOW TO MID 30S DOWNEAST. UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY WILL DIVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY CARVING OUT A CLOSED UPPER LOW ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION BY WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL SET US UP FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
RAINY WEATHER BY MID-WEEK. A VERTICALLY STACKED UPPER LOW TO OUR
SOUTH WILL RESULT IN A DEEP E TO SE FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC. THE BIG
QUESTION IS WHERE THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL EVENTUALLY
SET UP ACROSS OUR CWA. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALSO BE
ESTABLISHED TO OUR NORTH ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA. THE COMBINATION
OF THE HIGH TO OUR NORTH AND DRIER AIR MAY TEND TO KEEP THE AXIS
OF HEAVIEST RAIN ACROSS DOWNEAST MAINE THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH
LITTLE IF ANY RAIN REACHING FAR NORTHERN MAINE AND THE ST JOHN
VALLEY. THUS WILL FOCUS THE HIGHEST POPS FROM TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS. IN ADDITION TO THE HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL...NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE BY WEDNESDAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
AS LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE
AND TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA. WE SHOULD FINALLY START TO DRY OUT BY
FRIDAY NIGHT ALTHOUGH A FEW SHOWERS COULD LINGER RIGHT INTO
SATURDAY ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. COLDER WEATHER WILL FOLLOW BEHIND
A COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: BKN SKY CON EARLY...THEN CLEARING. VFR CONDITIONS ALL SITES.
WINDS WILL STAY UP OVER NIGHT THIS WILL KEEP FOG FROM DEVELOPING.

SHORT TERM: FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL BE DETERIORATING AS WE GO
THROUGH THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD. LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING
SLOWLY NORTHEAST FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA BY
LATE WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF RAIN DEVELOPING TUESDAY
AND CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY. WIDESPREAD MVFR AND OCCASIONAL IFR
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGH MOST OF THIS PERIOD. GUSTY EAST TO
NORTHEAST WINDS CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS WILL SUBSIDE TOMORROW AFTERNOON. AND SCA WILL REMAIN IN
EFFECT THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM: WIND/SEAS SHOULD BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. SEAS WILL BEGIN TO BUILD AS EAST GALE
FORCE WINDS DEVELOP BY WEDNESDAY.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...NORTON
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...NORTON/DUDA
MARINE...NORTON/DUDA








000
FXUS61 KGYX 191911
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
311 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT
AND WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE ON MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
AND WILL INTENSIFY SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND TUESDAY NIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE WILL MEANDER OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE DRIFTING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST
OVERNIGHT. EXPECT CLOUDS DOWNWIND OF THE MOUNTAINS TO GRADUALLY
CLEAR DURING THE EVENING HOURS. ABUNDANT UPSTREAM MOISTURE AND
ROBUST UPSLOPE FLOW WILL KEEP CLOUDS IN THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING AFTER
MIDNIGHT. MODELS STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN BRINGING FREEZING
TEMPERATURES RIGHT DOWN TO THE COAST WHERE FREEZE WARNINGS HAVE
BEEN POSTED. DESPITE THE CLOUDS...NORTHERN ZONES WILL BOTTOM OUT
IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL SEND HIGH CLOUDS INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY.
SHOULD STILL SEE A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUN WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO
MID 50S SOUTH AND IN THE 40S NORTH.

CLOUDS WILL THICKEN MONDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DRIFTS
SOUTHEAST FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. WEAK OVER-RUNNING AHEAD
OF THIS SYSTEM MAY PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS IN WESTERN ZONES MONDAY
NIGHT BUT THESE SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT AND SPOTTY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PRIMARY DRIVER OF WEATHER IN THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST
WILL BE THE UPPER LOW WHICH CUTS OFF OVER THE NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY
AND SLOWLY SPINS OVER THE AREA BEFORE PULLING OUT ON FRIDAY. FAIR
AGREEMENT AMONGST THE COMPUTER MODELS THAT SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
WILL DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON TUESDAY... DRIFTING
TOWARD CAPE COD WEDNESDAY... THE GULF OF MAINE THURSDAY... AND
NOVA SCOTIA BY FRIDAY. SHOULD SEE A PRETTY GOOD STREAM OF MOISTURE
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC FLOWING NORTHWARD... WITH LIFT FROM THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CAUSING ALL THAT MOISTURE TO BE DEPOSITED AS
RAIN OVER MUCH OF NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. RAIN COULD BEGIN AS EARLY
AS TUESDAY AS BROAD LIFT AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW COULD BRING
SHOWERS. BUT THE HEAVIER RAIN WILL BE LIKELY WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT... WITH RAIN CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY. WITH LOW
PRESSURE PULLING OUT TO THE EAST ON FRIDAY THERE SHOULD BE SOME
IMPROVEMENT.

OVER THE 3-4 DAY PERIOD A TOTAL OF 1 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN IS
EXPECTED. IT IS STILL HARD TO SAY EXACTLY WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN
WILL FALL AS PINPOINTING WHERE THE RAIN BANDS WILL SET UP IN A CUT
OFF LOW TYPE SCENARIO LIKE THIS IS FAIRLY DIFFICULT THIS FAR OUT.
BUT IT APPEARS THAT MAINE MIGHT BE HIT A BIT HARDER THAN NEW
HAMPSHIRE WITH AREAS FROM PORTLAND NORTHWARD SEEING THE MOST RAIN.
WITH THIS MUCH RAIN FORECAST... FLOODING IS A POSSIBILITY.
ALTHOUGH RAIN RATES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE EXTREME... THE
DURATION OF HEAVY RAIN WOULD BE MORE LIKELY TO CAUSE RIVER
FLOODING AS STREAMS AND RIVERS SWELL FROM THE PROLONGED RAINFALL.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN SEASONABLY COOL FOR HIGHS BUT WILL BE
ABOVE NORMAL AT NIGHT DUE TO LOW LEVEL MOISTURE... CLOUD COVER...
AND PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...CONDITIONS BEGIN DETERIORATING ON TUESDAY TO MVFR/IFR
IN RAIN. SHOULD SEE IFR/LIFR COMMONPLACE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS
PERIODS OF RAIN CONTINUE. NORTH/WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS CONDITIONS
MAY BE A LITTLE BETTER DUE TO DOWNSLOPING WINDS. EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE ON FRIDAY EXCEPT FOR THE MOUNTAINS WHERE
UPSLOPING NORTHWEST WINDS MAY KEEP CLOUDS AND SHOWERS AROUND.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...CONTINUING SCA`S THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

LONG TERM...AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
AND TRACKS SLOWLY TOWARD CAPE COD AND THE GULF OF MAINE...
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN TO THE NORTH OF THE LOW. WINDS
CURRENTLY LOOK TO BE IN THE HIGH END OF THE ADVISORY RANGE TO LOW
END GALE ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT OVER THE OUTER
WATERS. THE NORTHEAST FLOW WILL ALSO BEGIN PRODUCING 10 FT WAVES.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE BY FRIDAY AS THE LOW PASSES TO THE EAST.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 7 AM EDT MONDAY FOR MEZ023>028.
NH...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 7 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NHZ013-014.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$

KIMBLE



000
FXUS61 KCAR 191553
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1153 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY SOUTH
OF THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1200 PM UPDATE. CONTINUE SLOW CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON. MADE MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO SKYCON AND HRLY TEMPS OTHERWISE NO MAJOR CHANGES
FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY THROUGH EARLY
TONIGHT THEN LIFT NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS TODAY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS
POSSIBLE DOWNEAST. OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. AFTER A MOSTLY CLOUDY EVENING...CLOUD
COVER WILL DECREASE ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS OVERNIGHT. CLOUD COVER
WILL DECREASE DOWNEAST TONIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOWER TO MID 40S NORTH...TO AROUND 50 INTERIOR DOWNEAST
WITH LOWER TO MID 50S ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST. LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30 NORTH...TO THE
LOWER 30S INTERIOR DOWNEAST WITH LOWER TO MID 30S ALONG THE
DOWNEAST COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXPECT A STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH DEEP LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER
THE STATE LATE MONDAY THEN DRIFT TO THE EAST. LOW PRESSURE WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST TUESDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF VERY
SIMILAR WITH LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST TUESDAY THEN
PASSING TO SOUTH. WILL USE MODEL CONSENSUS AND BLEND BOTH MODELS
50/50. WILL USE THE RAW BLEND FOR TEMPERATURE WITH CHANGE IN AIR
MASS EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO A POSITION OVER ATLANTIC SOUTH OF NEW
ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTENSIFY. AT THE SAME TIME EXPECT
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO PERSIST TO THE NORTH OF NEW ENGLAND. THIS
SYSTEM IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE TO A POSITION NEAR CAPE COD DURING
THE DAY WEDNESDAY THEN BECOME STATIONARY INTO THURSDAY.
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF RAIN ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND
COASTAL AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY THROUGH
EARLY TONIGHT...WITH GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT.
OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DOWNEAST THIS
MORNING...WITH GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS MONDAY. FOR TUESDAY EXPECT IFR
CONDITIONS KBGR AND KBHB...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS TO NORTH.
IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE
WATERS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: FOR WINDS WILL USE THE NAM12 SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY THEN TRANSITION TO THE MOSG25 WINDS. FOR WAVES: PRIMARY
WAVE GROUP MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE LOCAL SOUTHWEST WIND WAVE
(2-3 FEET/4-5 SECONDS) WITH SECONDARY LONG PERIOD WAVE SYSTEM 2
FEET/9-10 SECONDS. AS OCEAN LOW DEVELOPS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
EXPECT SIGNIFICANT NORTHEAST WIND WAVE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE GULF
OF MAINE (10-12 FEET/8 SECONDS) THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
SECONDARY SOUTHEAST WAVE SYSTEM (6 FEET/9 SECONDS) ALSO GENERATED
BY THE OCEAN LOW. GALE CONDITIONS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. HAVE USED THE NEAR SHORE WAVE MODEL FOR WAVES MONDAY AND
TUESDAY THEN TRANSITION TO THE WAVE WATCH III.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...NORTON
SHORT TERM...MIGNONE
LONG TERM...MIGNONE
AVIATION...NORTON/MIGNONE
MARINE...NORTON/MIGNONE







000
FXUS61 KCAR 191553
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1153 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY SOUTH
OF THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1200 PM UPDATE. CONTINUE SLOW CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON. MADE MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO SKYCON AND HRLY TEMPS OTHERWISE NO MAJOR CHANGES
FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY THROUGH EARLY
TONIGHT THEN LIFT NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS TODAY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS
POSSIBLE DOWNEAST. OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. AFTER A MOSTLY CLOUDY EVENING...CLOUD
COVER WILL DECREASE ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS OVERNIGHT. CLOUD COVER
WILL DECREASE DOWNEAST TONIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOWER TO MID 40S NORTH...TO AROUND 50 INTERIOR DOWNEAST
WITH LOWER TO MID 50S ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST. LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30 NORTH...TO THE
LOWER 30S INTERIOR DOWNEAST WITH LOWER TO MID 30S ALONG THE
DOWNEAST COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXPECT A STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH DEEP LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER
THE STATE LATE MONDAY THEN DRIFT TO THE EAST. LOW PRESSURE WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST TUESDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF VERY
SIMILAR WITH LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST TUESDAY THEN
PASSING TO SOUTH. WILL USE MODEL CONSENSUS AND BLEND BOTH MODELS
50/50. WILL USE THE RAW BLEND FOR TEMPERATURE WITH CHANGE IN AIR
MASS EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO A POSITION OVER ATLANTIC SOUTH OF NEW
ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTENSIFY. AT THE SAME TIME EXPECT
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO PERSIST TO THE NORTH OF NEW ENGLAND. THIS
SYSTEM IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE TO A POSITION NEAR CAPE COD DURING
THE DAY WEDNESDAY THEN BECOME STATIONARY INTO THURSDAY.
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF RAIN ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND
COASTAL AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY THROUGH
EARLY TONIGHT...WITH GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT.
OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DOWNEAST THIS
MORNING...WITH GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS MONDAY. FOR TUESDAY EXPECT IFR
CONDITIONS KBGR AND KBHB...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS TO NORTH.
IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE
WATERS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: FOR WINDS WILL USE THE NAM12 SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY THEN TRANSITION TO THE MOSG25 WINDS. FOR WAVES: PRIMARY
WAVE GROUP MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE LOCAL SOUTHWEST WIND WAVE
(2-3 FEET/4-5 SECONDS) WITH SECONDARY LONG PERIOD WAVE SYSTEM 2
FEET/9-10 SECONDS. AS OCEAN LOW DEVELOPS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
EXPECT SIGNIFICANT NORTHEAST WIND WAVE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE GULF
OF MAINE (10-12 FEET/8 SECONDS) THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
SECONDARY SOUTHEAST WAVE SYSTEM (6 FEET/9 SECONDS) ALSO GENERATED
BY THE OCEAN LOW. GALE CONDITIONS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. HAVE USED THE NEAR SHORE WAVE MODEL FOR WAVES MONDAY AND
TUESDAY THEN TRANSITION TO THE WAVE WATCH III.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...NORTON
SHORT TERM...MIGNONE
LONG TERM...MIGNONE
AVIATION...NORTON/MIGNONE
MARINE...NORTON/MIGNONE







000
FXUS61 KCAR 191553
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1153 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY SOUTH
OF THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1200 PM UPDATE. CONTINUE SLOW CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON. MADE MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO SKYCON AND HRLY TEMPS OTHERWISE NO MAJOR CHANGES
FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY THROUGH EARLY
TONIGHT THEN LIFT NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS TODAY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS
POSSIBLE DOWNEAST. OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. AFTER A MOSTLY CLOUDY EVENING...CLOUD
COVER WILL DECREASE ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS OVERNIGHT. CLOUD COVER
WILL DECREASE DOWNEAST TONIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOWER TO MID 40S NORTH...TO AROUND 50 INTERIOR DOWNEAST
WITH LOWER TO MID 50S ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST. LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30 NORTH...TO THE
LOWER 30S INTERIOR DOWNEAST WITH LOWER TO MID 30S ALONG THE
DOWNEAST COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXPECT A STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH DEEP LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER
THE STATE LATE MONDAY THEN DRIFT TO THE EAST. LOW PRESSURE WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST TUESDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF VERY
SIMILAR WITH LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST TUESDAY THEN
PASSING TO SOUTH. WILL USE MODEL CONSENSUS AND BLEND BOTH MODELS
50/50. WILL USE THE RAW BLEND FOR TEMPERATURE WITH CHANGE IN AIR
MASS EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO A POSITION OVER ATLANTIC SOUTH OF NEW
ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTENSIFY. AT THE SAME TIME EXPECT
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO PERSIST TO THE NORTH OF NEW ENGLAND. THIS
SYSTEM IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE TO A POSITION NEAR CAPE COD DURING
THE DAY WEDNESDAY THEN BECOME STATIONARY INTO THURSDAY.
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF RAIN ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND
COASTAL AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY THROUGH
EARLY TONIGHT...WITH GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT.
OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DOWNEAST THIS
MORNING...WITH GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS MONDAY. FOR TUESDAY EXPECT IFR
CONDITIONS KBGR AND KBHB...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS TO NORTH.
IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE
WATERS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: FOR WINDS WILL USE THE NAM12 SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY THEN TRANSITION TO THE MOSG25 WINDS. FOR WAVES: PRIMARY
WAVE GROUP MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE LOCAL SOUTHWEST WIND WAVE
(2-3 FEET/4-5 SECONDS) WITH SECONDARY LONG PERIOD WAVE SYSTEM 2
FEET/9-10 SECONDS. AS OCEAN LOW DEVELOPS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
EXPECT SIGNIFICANT NORTHEAST WIND WAVE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE GULF
OF MAINE (10-12 FEET/8 SECONDS) THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
SECONDARY SOUTHEAST WAVE SYSTEM (6 FEET/9 SECONDS) ALSO GENERATED
BY THE OCEAN LOW. GALE CONDITIONS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. HAVE USED THE NEAR SHORE WAVE MODEL FOR WAVES MONDAY AND
TUESDAY THEN TRANSITION TO THE WAVE WATCH III.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...NORTON
SHORT TERM...MIGNONE
LONG TERM...MIGNONE
AVIATION...NORTON/MIGNONE
MARINE...NORTON/MIGNONE







000
FXUS61 KCAR 191553
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1153 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY SOUTH
OF THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1200 PM UPDATE. CONTINUE SLOW CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON. MADE MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO SKYCON AND HRLY TEMPS OTHERWISE NO MAJOR CHANGES
FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY THROUGH EARLY
TONIGHT THEN LIFT NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS TODAY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS
POSSIBLE DOWNEAST. OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. AFTER A MOSTLY CLOUDY EVENING...CLOUD
COVER WILL DECREASE ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS OVERNIGHT. CLOUD COVER
WILL DECREASE DOWNEAST TONIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOWER TO MID 40S NORTH...TO AROUND 50 INTERIOR DOWNEAST
WITH LOWER TO MID 50S ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST. LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30 NORTH...TO THE
LOWER 30S INTERIOR DOWNEAST WITH LOWER TO MID 30S ALONG THE
DOWNEAST COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXPECT A STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH DEEP LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER
THE STATE LATE MONDAY THEN DRIFT TO THE EAST. LOW PRESSURE WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST TUESDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF VERY
SIMILAR WITH LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST TUESDAY THEN
PASSING TO SOUTH. WILL USE MODEL CONSENSUS AND BLEND BOTH MODELS
50/50. WILL USE THE RAW BLEND FOR TEMPERATURE WITH CHANGE IN AIR
MASS EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO A POSITION OVER ATLANTIC SOUTH OF NEW
ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTENSIFY. AT THE SAME TIME EXPECT
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO PERSIST TO THE NORTH OF NEW ENGLAND. THIS
SYSTEM IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE TO A POSITION NEAR CAPE COD DURING
THE DAY WEDNESDAY THEN BECOME STATIONARY INTO THURSDAY.
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF RAIN ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND
COASTAL AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY THROUGH
EARLY TONIGHT...WITH GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT.
OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DOWNEAST THIS
MORNING...WITH GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS MONDAY. FOR TUESDAY EXPECT IFR
CONDITIONS KBGR AND KBHB...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS TO NORTH.
IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE
WATERS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: FOR WINDS WILL USE THE NAM12 SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY THEN TRANSITION TO THE MOSG25 WINDS. FOR WAVES: PRIMARY
WAVE GROUP MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE LOCAL SOUTHWEST WIND WAVE
(2-3 FEET/4-5 SECONDS) WITH SECONDARY LONG PERIOD WAVE SYSTEM 2
FEET/9-10 SECONDS. AS OCEAN LOW DEVELOPS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
EXPECT SIGNIFICANT NORTHEAST WIND WAVE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE GULF
OF MAINE (10-12 FEET/8 SECONDS) THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
SECONDARY SOUTHEAST WAVE SYSTEM (6 FEET/9 SECONDS) ALSO GENERATED
BY THE OCEAN LOW. GALE CONDITIONS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. HAVE USED THE NEAR SHORE WAVE MODEL FOR WAVES MONDAY AND
TUESDAY THEN TRANSITION TO THE WAVE WATCH III.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...NORTON
SHORT TERM...MIGNONE
LONG TERM...MIGNONE
AVIATION...NORTON/MIGNONE
MARINE...NORTON/MIGNONE







000
FXUS61 KCAR 191307
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
907 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY SOUTH
OF THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
900 AM UPDATE. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SKYCON AND HRLY TEMPS
OTHERWISE NO MAJOR CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY THROUGH EARLY
TONIGHT THEN LIFT NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS TODAY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS
POSSIBLE DOWNEAST. OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. AFTER A MOSTLY CLOUDY EVENING...CLOUD
COVER WILL DECREASE ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS OVERNIGHT. CLOUD COVER
WILL DECREASE DOWNEAST TONIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOWER TO MID 40S NORTH...TO AROUND 50 INTERIOR DOWNEAST
WITH LOWER TO MID 50S ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST. LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30 NORTH...TO THE
LOWER 30S INTERIOR DOWNEAST WITH LOWER TO MID 30S ALONG THE
DOWNEAST COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXPECT A STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH DEEP LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER
THE STATE LATE MONDAY THEN DRIFT TO THE EAST. LOW PRESSURE WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST TUESDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF VERY
SIMILAR WITH LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST TUESDAY THEN
PASSING TO SOUTH. WILL USE MODEL CONSENSUS AND BLEND BOTH MODELS
50/50. WILL USE THE RAW BLEND FOR TEMPERATURE WITH CHANGE IN AIR
MASS EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO A POSITION OVER ATLANTIC SOUTH OF NEW
ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTENSIFY. AT THE SAME TIME EXPECT
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO PERSIST TO THE NORTH OF NEW ENGLAND. THIS
SYSTEM IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE TO A POSITION NEAR CAPE COD DURING
THE DAY WEDNESDAY THEN BECOME STATIONARY INTO THURSDAY.
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF RAIN ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND
COASTAL AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY THROUGH
EARLY TONIGHT...WITH GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT.
OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DOWNEAST THIS
MORNING...WITH GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS MONDAY. FOR TUESDAY EXPECT IFR
CONDITIONS KBGR AND KBHB...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS TO NORTH.
IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE
WATERS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: FOR WINDS WILL USE THE NAM12 SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY THEN TRANSITION TO THE MOSG25 WINDS. FOR WAVES: PRIMARY
WAVE GROUP MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE LOCAL SOUTHWEST WIND WAVE
(2-3 FEET/4-5 SECONDS) WITH SECONDARY LONG PERIOD WAVE SYSTEM 2
FEET/9-10 SECONDS. AS OCEAN LOW DEVELOPS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
EXPECT SIGNIFICANT NORTHEAST WIND WAVE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE GULF
OF MAINE (10-12 FEET/8 SECONDS) THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
SECONDARY SOUTHEAST WAVE SYSTEM (6 FEET/9 SECONDS) ALSO GENERATED
BY THE OCEAN LOW. GALE CONDITIONS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. HAVE USED THE NEAR SHORE WAVE MODEL FOR WAVES MONDAY AND
TUESDAY THEN TRANSITION TO THE WAVE WATCH III.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...NORTON
SHORT TERM...MIGNONE
LONG TERM...MIGNONE
AVIATION...NORTON/MIGNONE
MARINE...NORTON/MIGNONE






000
FXUS61 KCAR 191307
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
907 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY SOUTH
OF THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
900 AM UPDATE. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SKYCON AND HRLY TEMPS
OTHERWISE NO MAJOR CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY THROUGH EARLY
TONIGHT THEN LIFT NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS TODAY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS
POSSIBLE DOWNEAST. OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. AFTER A MOSTLY CLOUDY EVENING...CLOUD
COVER WILL DECREASE ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS OVERNIGHT. CLOUD COVER
WILL DECREASE DOWNEAST TONIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOWER TO MID 40S NORTH...TO AROUND 50 INTERIOR DOWNEAST
WITH LOWER TO MID 50S ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST. LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30 NORTH...TO THE
LOWER 30S INTERIOR DOWNEAST WITH LOWER TO MID 30S ALONG THE
DOWNEAST COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXPECT A STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH DEEP LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER
THE STATE LATE MONDAY THEN DRIFT TO THE EAST. LOW PRESSURE WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST TUESDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF VERY
SIMILAR WITH LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST TUESDAY THEN
PASSING TO SOUTH. WILL USE MODEL CONSENSUS AND BLEND BOTH MODELS
50/50. WILL USE THE RAW BLEND FOR TEMPERATURE WITH CHANGE IN AIR
MASS EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO A POSITION OVER ATLANTIC SOUTH OF NEW
ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTENSIFY. AT THE SAME TIME EXPECT
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO PERSIST TO THE NORTH OF NEW ENGLAND. THIS
SYSTEM IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE TO A POSITION NEAR CAPE COD DURING
THE DAY WEDNESDAY THEN BECOME STATIONARY INTO THURSDAY.
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF RAIN ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND
COASTAL AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY THROUGH
EARLY TONIGHT...WITH GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT.
OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DOWNEAST THIS
MORNING...WITH GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS MONDAY. FOR TUESDAY EXPECT IFR
CONDITIONS KBGR AND KBHB...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS TO NORTH.
IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE
WATERS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: FOR WINDS WILL USE THE NAM12 SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY THEN TRANSITION TO THE MOSG25 WINDS. FOR WAVES: PRIMARY
WAVE GROUP MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE LOCAL SOUTHWEST WIND WAVE
(2-3 FEET/4-5 SECONDS) WITH SECONDARY LONG PERIOD WAVE SYSTEM 2
FEET/9-10 SECONDS. AS OCEAN LOW DEVELOPS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
EXPECT SIGNIFICANT NORTHEAST WIND WAVE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE GULF
OF MAINE (10-12 FEET/8 SECONDS) THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
SECONDARY SOUTHEAST WAVE SYSTEM (6 FEET/9 SECONDS) ALSO GENERATED
BY THE OCEAN LOW. GALE CONDITIONS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. HAVE USED THE NEAR SHORE WAVE MODEL FOR WAVES MONDAY AND
TUESDAY THEN TRANSITION TO THE WAVE WATCH III.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...NORTON
SHORT TERM...MIGNONE
LONG TERM...MIGNONE
AVIATION...NORTON/MIGNONE
MARINE...NORTON/MIGNONE







000
FXUS61 KCAR 191153
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
753 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY SOUTH
OF THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH MID WEEK.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADJUST FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS ALONG WITH
EXPECTED CLOUD COVER.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY THROUGH EARLY
TONIGHT THEN LIFT NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS TODAY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS
POSSIBLE DOWNEAST. OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. AFTER A MOSTLY CLOUDY EVENING...CLOUD
COVER WILL DECREASE ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS OVERNIGHT. CLOUD COVER
WILL DECREASE DOWNEAST TONIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOWER TO MID 40S NORTH...TO AROUND 50 INTERIOR DOWNEAST
WITH LOWER TO MID 50S ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST. LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30 NORTH...TO THE
LOWER 30S INTERIOR DOWNEAST WITH LOWER TO MID 30S ALONG THE
DOWNEAST COAST.
&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXPECT A STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH DEEP LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER
THE STATE LATE MONDAY THEN DRIFT TO THE EAST. LOW PRESSURE WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST TUESDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF VERY
SIMILAR WITH LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST TUESDAY THEN
PASSING TO SOUTH. WILL USE MODEL CONSENSUS AND BLEND BOTH MODELS
50/50. WILL USE THE RAW BLEND FOR TEMPERATURE WITH CHANGE IN AIR
MASS EXPECTED.
&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO A POSITION OVER ATLANTIC SOUTH OF NEW
ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTENSIFY. AT THE SAME TIME EXPECT
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO PERSIST TO THE NORTH OF NEW ENGLAND. THIS
SYSTEM IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE TO A POSITION NEAR CAPE COD DURING
THE DAY WEDNESDAY THEN BECOME STATIONARY INTO THURSDAY.
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF RAIN ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND
COASTAL AREAS.
&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY THROUGH
EARLY TONIGHT...WITH GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT.
OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DOWNEAST THIS
MORNING...WITH GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS MONDAY. FOR TUESDAY EXPECT IFR
CONDITIONS KBGR AND KBHB...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS TO NORTH.
IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE
WATERS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: FOR WINDS WILL USE THE NAM12 SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY THEN TRANSITION TO THE MOSG25 WINDS. FOR WAVES: PRIMARY
WAVE GROUP MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE LOCAL SOUTHWEST WIND WAVE
(2-3 FEET/4-5 SECONDS) WITH SECONDARY LONG PERIOD WAVE SYSTEM 2
FEET/9-10 SECONDS. AS OCEAN LOW DEVELOPS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
EXPECT SIGNIFICANT NORTHEAST WIND WAVE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE GULF
OF MAINE (10-12 FEET/8 SECONDS) THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
SECONDARY SOUTHEAST WAVE SYSTEM (6 FEET/9 SECONDS) ALSO GENERATED
BY THE OCEAN LOW. GALE CONDITIONS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. HAVE USED THE NEAR SHORE WAVE MODEL FOR WAVES MONDAY AND
TUESDAY THEN TRANSITION TO THE WAVE WATCH III.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...NORCROSS
SHORT TERM...MIGNONE
LONG TERM...MIGNONE
AVIATION...NORCROSS/MIGNONE
MARINE...NORCROSS/MIGNONE






000
FXUS61 KCAR 191153
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
753 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY SOUTH
OF THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH MID WEEK.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADJUST FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS ALONG WITH
EXPECTED CLOUD COVER.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY THROUGH EARLY
TONIGHT THEN LIFT NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS TODAY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS
POSSIBLE DOWNEAST. OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. AFTER A MOSTLY CLOUDY EVENING...CLOUD
COVER WILL DECREASE ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS OVERNIGHT. CLOUD COVER
WILL DECREASE DOWNEAST TONIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOWER TO MID 40S NORTH...TO AROUND 50 INTERIOR DOWNEAST
WITH LOWER TO MID 50S ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST. LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30 NORTH...TO THE
LOWER 30S INTERIOR DOWNEAST WITH LOWER TO MID 30S ALONG THE
DOWNEAST COAST.
&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXPECT A STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH DEEP LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER
THE STATE LATE MONDAY THEN DRIFT TO THE EAST. LOW PRESSURE WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST TUESDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF VERY
SIMILAR WITH LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST TUESDAY THEN
PASSING TO SOUTH. WILL USE MODEL CONSENSUS AND BLEND BOTH MODELS
50/50. WILL USE THE RAW BLEND FOR TEMPERATURE WITH CHANGE IN AIR
MASS EXPECTED.
&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO A POSITION OVER ATLANTIC SOUTH OF NEW
ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTENSIFY. AT THE SAME TIME EXPECT
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO PERSIST TO THE NORTH OF NEW ENGLAND. THIS
SYSTEM IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE TO A POSITION NEAR CAPE COD DURING
THE DAY WEDNESDAY THEN BECOME STATIONARY INTO THURSDAY.
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF RAIN ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND
COASTAL AREAS.
&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY THROUGH
EARLY TONIGHT...WITH GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT.
OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DOWNEAST THIS
MORNING...WITH GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS MONDAY. FOR TUESDAY EXPECT IFR
CONDITIONS KBGR AND KBHB...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS TO NORTH.
IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE
WATERS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: FOR WINDS WILL USE THE NAM12 SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY THEN TRANSITION TO THE MOSG25 WINDS. FOR WAVES: PRIMARY
WAVE GROUP MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE LOCAL SOUTHWEST WIND WAVE
(2-3 FEET/4-5 SECONDS) WITH SECONDARY LONG PERIOD WAVE SYSTEM 2
FEET/9-10 SECONDS. AS OCEAN LOW DEVELOPS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
EXPECT SIGNIFICANT NORTHEAST WIND WAVE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE GULF
OF MAINE (10-12 FEET/8 SECONDS) THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
SECONDARY SOUTHEAST WAVE SYSTEM (6 FEET/9 SECONDS) ALSO GENERATED
BY THE OCEAN LOW. GALE CONDITIONS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. HAVE USED THE NEAR SHORE WAVE MODEL FOR WAVES MONDAY AND
TUESDAY THEN TRANSITION TO THE WAVE WATCH III.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...NORCROSS
SHORT TERM...MIGNONE
LONG TERM...MIGNONE
AVIATION...NORCROSS/MIGNONE
MARINE...NORCROSS/MIGNONE







000
FXUS61 KGYX 191053
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
653 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A GUSTY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL SET UP BEHIND A DEPARTING FRONT TODAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT AND MONDAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AND
WILL REDEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY NIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE WILL MEANDER OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS BASED ON SATELLITE DATA AND LATEST
OBSERVATIONS. MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA NOW HAS OVERCAST
CONDITIONS WITH ANY PRECIP MAINLY CONFINED TO UPSTATE NEW YORK
WHERE SNOW SHOWERS ARE CONTINUING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

EXPECT UPSLOPE SHOWERS (BOTH RAIN AND SNOW) TODAY...MOSTLY ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST FACING HIGHER TERRAIN. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES
AS THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON RUSHES INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

PREV DISC...
MESOSCALE MODEL SUITE THIS MORNING CONTINUES TO SHOW
ANOTHER LINE OF SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION...MAINLY DURING
THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. OTHERWISE...GUSTY
WINDS AND STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL ALLOW FOR A MUCH COOLER
DAY TODAY THAN YESTERDAY. IN FACT...THERE WILL BE SOME SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY MIXED IN OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. HIGHEST POPS WILL BE
ALONG THE NW FACING HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE UPSLOPING WILL OCCUR.
FURTHER SOUTH...DOWNSLOPING CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW FOR MORE
SUNSHINE AND TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
WITH CLEAR SKIES AND A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE
REGION...TEMPERATURES WILL DROP THROUGH THE 30S OVERNIGHT. EXPECT
MANY AREAS ALONG THE COAST TO BE AT OR JUST BELOW FREEZING BY
LATE TONIGHT. THIS HAS PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE OF FREEZE WARNINGS
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA THAT HAS NOT ALREADY
RECEIVED A KILLING FREEZE. QUESTION REMAINS WITH THE GRADIENT
WINDS FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. A LIGHT NORTHWEST BREEZE MAY KEEP
SOME AREAS JUST ABOVE FREEZING.

SOME CLOUDINESS WILL SPILL INTO THE REGION MONDAY AS THE NEXT LONG
WAVE TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND MOVES
SOUTHEAST. PRECIP WILL REMAIN TO OUR WEST DURING THE
DAY...ALLOWING FOR MONDAY TO REMAIN DRY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MONDAY NIGHT BEGINS WHAT WILL BE QUITE A LONG STRETCH OF WET
WEATHER FOR THE NORTHEAST. ALOFT THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED AS A STRONG TROUGH DIGS INTO THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES. DOWNSTREAM OF US IN THE ATLANTIC A STRONG BERMUDA HIGH AND
SUGGESTIONS OF A CUT OFF LOW DEVELOPING IN THE EAST ATLANTIC SET
THE STAGE FOR A BLOCKING PATTERN. A LOW WILL MOVE OUT OF THE GREAT
LAKES ON TUESDAY. AS IT GETS CAUGHT UP AND ROTATED AROUND THE
UPPER LOW THE SURFACE LOW REDEVELOPS OFF SHORE IN THE ATLANTIC,
SETTING US UP FOR A CLASSIC NOR`EASTER BY WEDNESDAY. THE SURFACE
ISN`T THE ONLY LOW DEVELOPING AS THE 500MB LOW ALSO CLOSES OFF
JUST SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND. WITH A CUT OFF LOW OVERHEAD AND
BLOCKING PATTERN IN PLACE DOWNSTREAM THERE IS NOWHERE FOR THE
SURFACE LOW TO GO... AND IT SITS AND SPINS IN THE GULF OF MAINE
RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

AS WITH ANY LONG RANGE FORECAST... THIS SCENARIO IS NOT SET IN
STONE. ON THE PLUS SIDE...THE BLOCKING PATTERN HAS ONLY BEGUN TO
FORM IN THE N ATLANTIC... WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING A
STRONG LOW OFF SPAIN... HOWEVER THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE GONZALO
STILL NEED TO MOVE OUT OF THE WAY FOR THE HIGH TO DEVELOP IN THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. A SHIFT IN THE LOCATION OF THE BLOCK OR A DELAY
IN ITS FORMATION COULD STILL SPARE US SOME MOISTURE FOR THE MID
WEEK PERIOD. ON THE OTHER HAND... NAEFS ANOMALIES SHOW A PERIOD OF
OVER 48 HOURS WITH 90TH PERCENTILE MOISTURE... AND ANALOG GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SUGGEST VERY HIGH RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE A REALISTIC
POSSIBILITY. OVERALL POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
HEAVY RAIN MIDWEEK. THIS MAY RESULT IN THE FLASHIER RIVERS
REACHING MINOR FLOOD STAGE... AS WELL AS MORE LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING IN FAVORED TERRAIN AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MAINLY VFR...HOWEVER THERE WILL BE PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT OVER INLAND VALLEY LOCATIONS.

LONG TERM... CEILINGS WILL BEING TO LOWER TUESDAY AFTERNOON TO
MVFR AND REMAIN IN IFR WITH PERIODS OF LIFR THROUGH THURSDAY. WIND
SHEAR MAY BE A CONCERN FOR COASTAL SITES ON WEDNESDAY AS THE JET
PASSES OVERHEAD.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SCAS HAVE BEEN EXTENDED FOR BOTH WINDS AND SEAS.

LONG TERM... DEVELOPING LOW WILL BRING WINDS AND SEAS UP TUESDAY
AFTERNOON... REACHING GALE STRENGTH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
THE OUTER WATERS AND UPPER END OF SMALL CRAFT FOR THE BAYS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 7 AM EDT MONDAY FOR MEZ023>028.
NH...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 7 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NHZ013-014.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KGYX 191053
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
653 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A GUSTY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL SET UP BEHIND A DEPARTING FRONT TODAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT AND MONDAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AND
WILL REDEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY NIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE WILL MEANDER OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS BASED ON SATELLITE DATA AND LATEST
OBSERVATIONS. MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA NOW HAS OVERCAST
CONDITIONS WITH ANY PRECIP MAINLY CONFINED TO UPSTATE NEW YORK
WHERE SNOW SHOWERS ARE CONTINUING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

EXPECT UPSLOPE SHOWERS (BOTH RAIN AND SNOW) TODAY...MOSTLY ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST FACING HIGHER TERRAIN. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES
AS THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON RUSHES INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

PREV DISC...
MESOSCALE MODEL SUITE THIS MORNING CONTINUES TO SHOW
ANOTHER LINE OF SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION...MAINLY DURING
THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. OTHERWISE...GUSTY
WINDS AND STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL ALLOW FOR A MUCH COOLER
DAY TODAY THAN YESTERDAY. IN FACT...THERE WILL BE SOME SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY MIXED IN OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. HIGHEST POPS WILL BE
ALONG THE NW FACING HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE UPSLOPING WILL OCCUR.
FURTHER SOUTH...DOWNSLOPING CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW FOR MORE
SUNSHINE AND TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
WITH CLEAR SKIES AND A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE
REGION...TEMPERATURES WILL DROP THROUGH THE 30S OVERNIGHT. EXPECT
MANY AREAS ALONG THE COAST TO BE AT OR JUST BELOW FREEZING BY
LATE TONIGHT. THIS HAS PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE OF FREEZE WARNINGS
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA THAT HAS NOT ALREADY
RECEIVED A KILLING FREEZE. QUESTION REMAINS WITH THE GRADIENT
WINDS FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. A LIGHT NORTHWEST BREEZE MAY KEEP
SOME AREAS JUST ABOVE FREEZING.

SOME CLOUDINESS WILL SPILL INTO THE REGION MONDAY AS THE NEXT LONG
WAVE TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND MOVES
SOUTHEAST. PRECIP WILL REMAIN TO OUR WEST DURING THE
DAY...ALLOWING FOR MONDAY TO REMAIN DRY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MONDAY NIGHT BEGINS WHAT WILL BE QUITE A LONG STRETCH OF WET
WEATHER FOR THE NORTHEAST. ALOFT THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED AS A STRONG TROUGH DIGS INTO THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES. DOWNSTREAM OF US IN THE ATLANTIC A STRONG BERMUDA HIGH AND
SUGGESTIONS OF A CUT OFF LOW DEVELOPING IN THE EAST ATLANTIC SET
THE STAGE FOR A BLOCKING PATTERN. A LOW WILL MOVE OUT OF THE GREAT
LAKES ON TUESDAY. AS IT GETS CAUGHT UP AND ROTATED AROUND THE
UPPER LOW THE SURFACE LOW REDEVELOPS OFF SHORE IN THE ATLANTIC,
SETTING US UP FOR A CLASSIC NOR`EASTER BY WEDNESDAY. THE SURFACE
ISN`T THE ONLY LOW DEVELOPING AS THE 500MB LOW ALSO CLOSES OFF
JUST SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND. WITH A CUT OFF LOW OVERHEAD AND
BLOCKING PATTERN IN PLACE DOWNSTREAM THERE IS NOWHERE FOR THE
SURFACE LOW TO GO... AND IT SITS AND SPINS IN THE GULF OF MAINE
RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

AS WITH ANY LONG RANGE FORECAST... THIS SCENARIO IS NOT SET IN
STONE. ON THE PLUS SIDE...THE BLOCKING PATTERN HAS ONLY BEGUN TO
FORM IN THE N ATLANTIC... WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING A
STRONG LOW OFF SPAIN... HOWEVER THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE GONZALO
STILL NEED TO MOVE OUT OF THE WAY FOR THE HIGH TO DEVELOP IN THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. A SHIFT IN THE LOCATION OF THE BLOCK OR A DELAY
IN ITS FORMATION COULD STILL SPARE US SOME MOISTURE FOR THE MID
WEEK PERIOD. ON THE OTHER HAND... NAEFS ANOMALIES SHOW A PERIOD OF
OVER 48 HOURS WITH 90TH PERCENTILE MOISTURE... AND ANALOG GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SUGGEST VERY HIGH RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE A REALISTIC
POSSIBILITY. OVERALL POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
HEAVY RAIN MIDWEEK. THIS MAY RESULT IN THE FLASHIER RIVERS
REACHING MINOR FLOOD STAGE... AS WELL AS MORE LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING IN FAVORED TERRAIN AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MAINLY VFR...HOWEVER THERE WILL BE PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT OVER INLAND VALLEY LOCATIONS.

LONG TERM... CEILINGS WILL BEING TO LOWER TUESDAY AFTERNOON TO
MVFR AND REMAIN IN IFR WITH PERIODS OF LIFR THROUGH THURSDAY. WIND
SHEAR MAY BE A CONCERN FOR COASTAL SITES ON WEDNESDAY AS THE JET
PASSES OVERHEAD.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SCAS HAVE BEEN EXTENDED FOR BOTH WINDS AND SEAS.

LONG TERM... DEVELOPING LOW WILL BRING WINDS AND SEAS UP TUESDAY
AFTERNOON... REACHING GALE STRENGTH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
THE OUTER WATERS AND UPPER END OF SMALL CRAFT FOR THE BAYS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 7 AM EDT MONDAY FOR MEZ023>028.
NH...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 7 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NHZ013-014.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KGYX 191053
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
653 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A GUSTY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL SET UP BEHIND A DEPARTING FRONT TODAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT AND MONDAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AND
WILL REDEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY NIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE WILL MEANDER OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS BASED ON SATELLITE DATA AND LATEST
OBSERVATIONS. MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA NOW HAS OVERCAST
CONDITIONS WITH ANY PRECIP MAINLY CONFINED TO UPSTATE NEW YORK
WHERE SNOW SHOWERS ARE CONTINUING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

EXPECT UPSLOPE SHOWERS (BOTH RAIN AND SNOW) TODAY...MOSTLY ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST FACING HIGHER TERRAIN. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES
AS THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON RUSHES INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

PREV DISC...
MESOSCALE MODEL SUITE THIS MORNING CONTINUES TO SHOW
ANOTHER LINE OF SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION...MAINLY DURING
THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. OTHERWISE...GUSTY
WINDS AND STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL ALLOW FOR A MUCH COOLER
DAY TODAY THAN YESTERDAY. IN FACT...THERE WILL BE SOME SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY MIXED IN OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. HIGHEST POPS WILL BE
ALONG THE NW FACING HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE UPSLOPING WILL OCCUR.
FURTHER SOUTH...DOWNSLOPING CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW FOR MORE
SUNSHINE AND TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
WITH CLEAR SKIES AND A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE
REGION...TEMPERATURES WILL DROP THROUGH THE 30S OVERNIGHT. EXPECT
MANY AREAS ALONG THE COAST TO BE AT OR JUST BELOW FREEZING BY
LATE TONIGHT. THIS HAS PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE OF FREEZE WARNINGS
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA THAT HAS NOT ALREADY
RECEIVED A KILLING FREEZE. QUESTION REMAINS WITH THE GRADIENT
WINDS FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. A LIGHT NORTHWEST BREEZE MAY KEEP
SOME AREAS JUST ABOVE FREEZING.

SOME CLOUDINESS WILL SPILL INTO THE REGION MONDAY AS THE NEXT LONG
WAVE TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND MOVES
SOUTHEAST. PRECIP WILL REMAIN TO OUR WEST DURING THE
DAY...ALLOWING FOR MONDAY TO REMAIN DRY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MONDAY NIGHT BEGINS WHAT WILL BE QUITE A LONG STRETCH OF WET
WEATHER FOR THE NORTHEAST. ALOFT THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED AS A STRONG TROUGH DIGS INTO THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES. DOWNSTREAM OF US IN THE ATLANTIC A STRONG BERMUDA HIGH AND
SUGGESTIONS OF A CUT OFF LOW DEVELOPING IN THE EAST ATLANTIC SET
THE STAGE FOR A BLOCKING PATTERN. A LOW WILL MOVE OUT OF THE GREAT
LAKES ON TUESDAY. AS IT GETS CAUGHT UP AND ROTATED AROUND THE
UPPER LOW THE SURFACE LOW REDEVELOPS OFF SHORE IN THE ATLANTIC,
SETTING US UP FOR A CLASSIC NOR`EASTER BY WEDNESDAY. THE SURFACE
ISN`T THE ONLY LOW DEVELOPING AS THE 500MB LOW ALSO CLOSES OFF
JUST SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND. WITH A CUT OFF LOW OVERHEAD AND
BLOCKING PATTERN IN PLACE DOWNSTREAM THERE IS NOWHERE FOR THE
SURFACE LOW TO GO... AND IT SITS AND SPINS IN THE GULF OF MAINE
RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

AS WITH ANY LONG RANGE FORECAST... THIS SCENARIO IS NOT SET IN
STONE. ON THE PLUS SIDE...THE BLOCKING PATTERN HAS ONLY BEGUN TO
FORM IN THE N ATLANTIC... WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING A
STRONG LOW OFF SPAIN... HOWEVER THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE GONZALO
STILL NEED TO MOVE OUT OF THE WAY FOR THE HIGH TO DEVELOP IN THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. A SHIFT IN THE LOCATION OF THE BLOCK OR A DELAY
IN ITS FORMATION COULD STILL SPARE US SOME MOISTURE FOR THE MID
WEEK PERIOD. ON THE OTHER HAND... NAEFS ANOMALIES SHOW A PERIOD OF
OVER 48 HOURS WITH 90TH PERCENTILE MOISTURE... AND ANALOG GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SUGGEST VERY HIGH RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE A REALISTIC
POSSIBILITY. OVERALL POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
HEAVY RAIN MIDWEEK. THIS MAY RESULT IN THE FLASHIER RIVERS
REACHING MINOR FLOOD STAGE... AS WELL AS MORE LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING IN FAVORED TERRAIN AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MAINLY VFR...HOWEVER THERE WILL BE PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT OVER INLAND VALLEY LOCATIONS.

LONG TERM... CEILINGS WILL BEING TO LOWER TUESDAY AFTERNOON TO
MVFR AND REMAIN IN IFR WITH PERIODS OF LIFR THROUGH THURSDAY. WIND
SHEAR MAY BE A CONCERN FOR COASTAL SITES ON WEDNESDAY AS THE JET
PASSES OVERHEAD.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SCAS HAVE BEEN EXTENDED FOR BOTH WINDS AND SEAS.

LONG TERM... DEVELOPING LOW WILL BRING WINDS AND SEAS UP TUESDAY
AFTERNOON... REACHING GALE STRENGTH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
THE OUTER WATERS AND UPPER END OF SMALL CRAFT FOR THE BAYS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 7 AM EDT MONDAY FOR MEZ023>028.
NH...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 7 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NHZ013-014.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KGYX 191053
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
653 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A GUSTY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL SET UP BEHIND A DEPARTING FRONT TODAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT AND MONDAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AND
WILL REDEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY NIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE WILL MEANDER OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS BASED ON SATELLITE DATA AND LATEST
OBSERVATIONS. MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA NOW HAS OVERCAST
CONDITIONS WITH ANY PRECIP MAINLY CONFINED TO UPSTATE NEW YORK
WHERE SNOW SHOWERS ARE CONTINUING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

EXPECT UPSLOPE SHOWERS (BOTH RAIN AND SNOW) TODAY...MOSTLY ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST FACING HIGHER TERRAIN. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES
AS THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON RUSHES INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

PREV DISC...
MESOSCALE MODEL SUITE THIS MORNING CONTINUES TO SHOW
ANOTHER LINE OF SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION...MAINLY DURING
THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. OTHERWISE...GUSTY
WINDS AND STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL ALLOW FOR A MUCH COOLER
DAY TODAY THAN YESTERDAY. IN FACT...THERE WILL BE SOME SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY MIXED IN OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. HIGHEST POPS WILL BE
ALONG THE NW FACING HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE UPSLOPING WILL OCCUR.
FURTHER SOUTH...DOWNSLOPING CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW FOR MORE
SUNSHINE AND TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
WITH CLEAR SKIES AND A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE
REGION...TEMPERATURES WILL DROP THROUGH THE 30S OVERNIGHT. EXPECT
MANY AREAS ALONG THE COAST TO BE AT OR JUST BELOW FREEZING BY
LATE TONIGHT. THIS HAS PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE OF FREEZE WARNINGS
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA THAT HAS NOT ALREADY
RECEIVED A KILLING FREEZE. QUESTION REMAINS WITH THE GRADIENT
WINDS FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. A LIGHT NORTHWEST BREEZE MAY KEEP
SOME AREAS JUST ABOVE FREEZING.

SOME CLOUDINESS WILL SPILL INTO THE REGION MONDAY AS THE NEXT LONG
WAVE TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND MOVES
SOUTHEAST. PRECIP WILL REMAIN TO OUR WEST DURING THE
DAY...ALLOWING FOR MONDAY TO REMAIN DRY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MONDAY NIGHT BEGINS WHAT WILL BE QUITE A LONG STRETCH OF WET
WEATHER FOR THE NORTHEAST. ALOFT THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED AS A STRONG TROUGH DIGS INTO THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES. DOWNSTREAM OF US IN THE ATLANTIC A STRONG BERMUDA HIGH AND
SUGGESTIONS OF A CUT OFF LOW DEVELOPING IN THE EAST ATLANTIC SET
THE STAGE FOR A BLOCKING PATTERN. A LOW WILL MOVE OUT OF THE GREAT
LAKES ON TUESDAY. AS IT GETS CAUGHT UP AND ROTATED AROUND THE
UPPER LOW THE SURFACE LOW REDEVELOPS OFF SHORE IN THE ATLANTIC,
SETTING US UP FOR A CLASSIC NOR`EASTER BY WEDNESDAY. THE SURFACE
ISN`T THE ONLY LOW DEVELOPING AS THE 500MB LOW ALSO CLOSES OFF
JUST SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND. WITH A CUT OFF LOW OVERHEAD AND
BLOCKING PATTERN IN PLACE DOWNSTREAM THERE IS NOWHERE FOR THE
SURFACE LOW TO GO... AND IT SITS AND SPINS IN THE GULF OF MAINE
RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

AS WITH ANY LONG RANGE FORECAST... THIS SCENARIO IS NOT SET IN
STONE. ON THE PLUS SIDE...THE BLOCKING PATTERN HAS ONLY BEGUN TO
FORM IN THE N ATLANTIC... WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING A
STRONG LOW OFF SPAIN... HOWEVER THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE GONZALO
STILL NEED TO MOVE OUT OF THE WAY FOR THE HIGH TO DEVELOP IN THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. A SHIFT IN THE LOCATION OF THE BLOCK OR A DELAY
IN ITS FORMATION COULD STILL SPARE US SOME MOISTURE FOR THE MID
WEEK PERIOD. ON THE OTHER HAND... NAEFS ANOMALIES SHOW A PERIOD OF
OVER 48 HOURS WITH 90TH PERCENTILE MOISTURE... AND ANALOG GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SUGGEST VERY HIGH RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE A REALISTIC
POSSIBILITY. OVERALL POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
HEAVY RAIN MIDWEEK. THIS MAY RESULT IN THE FLASHIER RIVERS
REACHING MINOR FLOOD STAGE... AS WELL AS MORE LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING IN FAVORED TERRAIN AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MAINLY VFR...HOWEVER THERE WILL BE PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT OVER INLAND VALLEY LOCATIONS.

LONG TERM... CEILINGS WILL BEING TO LOWER TUESDAY AFTERNOON TO
MVFR AND REMAIN IN IFR WITH PERIODS OF LIFR THROUGH THURSDAY. WIND
SHEAR MAY BE A CONCERN FOR COASTAL SITES ON WEDNESDAY AS THE JET
PASSES OVERHEAD.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SCAS HAVE BEEN EXTENDED FOR BOTH WINDS AND SEAS.

LONG TERM... DEVELOPING LOW WILL BRING WINDS AND SEAS UP TUESDAY
AFTERNOON... REACHING GALE STRENGTH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
THE OUTER WATERS AND UPPER END OF SMALL CRAFT FOR THE BAYS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 7 AM EDT MONDAY FOR MEZ023>028.
NH...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 7 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NHZ013-014.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KCAR 190857
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
457 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY SOUTH
OF THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH MID WEEK.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY THROUGH EARLY
TONIGHT THEN LIFT NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS TODAY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS
POSSIBLE DOWNEAST. OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. AFTER A MOSTLY CLOUDY EVENING...CLOUD COVER
WILL DECREASE ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS OVERNIGHT. CLOUD COVER WILL
DECREASE DOWNEAST TONIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM
THE LOWER TO MID 40S NORTH...TO AROUND 50 INTERIOR DOWNEAST WITH
LOWER TO MID 50S ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST. LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30 NORTH...TO THE
LOWER 30S INTERIOR DOWNEAST WITH LOWER TO MID 30S ALONG THE
DOWNEAST COAST.
&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXPECT A STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH DEEP LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER
THE STATE LATE MONDAY THEN DRIFT TO THE EAST. LOW PRESSURE WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST TUESDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF VERY
SIMILAR WITH LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST TUESDAY THEN
PASSING TO SOUTH. WILL USE MODEL CONSENSUS AND BLEND BOTH MODELS
50/50. WILL USE THE RAW BLEND FOR TEMPERATURE WITH CHANGE IN AIR
MASS EXPECTED.
&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO A POSITION OVER ATLANTIC SOUTH OF NEW
ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTENSIFY. AT THE SAME TIME EXPECT
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO PERSIST TO THE NORTH OF NEW ENGLAND. THIS
SYSTEM IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE TO A POSITION NEAR CAPE COD DURING
THE DAY WEDNESDAY THEN BECOME STATIONARY INTO THURSDAY.
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF RAIN ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND
COASTAL AREAS.
&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY THROUGH
EARLY TONIGHT...WITH GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT.
OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DOWNEAST THIS
MORNING...WITH GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS MONDAY. FOR TUESDAY EXPECT IFR
CONDITIONS KBGR AND KBHB...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS TO NORTH.
IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE
WATERS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: FOR WINDS WILL USE THE NAM12 SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY THEN TRANSITION TO THE MOSG25 WINDS. FOR WAVES: PRIMARY
WAVE GROUP MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE LOCAL SOUTHWEST WIND WAVE
(2-3 FEET/4-5 SECONDS) WITH SECONDARY LONG PERIOD WAVE SYSTEM 2
FEET/9-10 SECONDS. AS OCEAN LOW DEVELOPS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
EXPECT SIGNIFICANT NORTHEAST WIND WAVE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE GULF
OF MAINE (10-12 FEET/8 SECONDS) THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
SECONDARY SOUTHEAST WAVE SYSTEM (6 FEET/9 SECONDS) ALSO GENERATED
BY THE OCEAN LOW. GALE CONDITIONS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. HAVE USED THE NEAR SHORE WAVE MODEL FOR WAVES MONDAY AND
TUESDAY THEN TRANSITION TO THE WAVE WATCH III.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...NORCROSS
SHORT TERM...MIGNONE
LONG TERM...MIGNONE
AVIATION...NORCROSS/MIGNONE
MARINE...NORCROSS/MIGNONE









000
FXUS61 KCAR 190857
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
457 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY SOUTH
OF THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH MID WEEK.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY THROUGH EARLY
TONIGHT THEN LIFT NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS TODAY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS
POSSIBLE DOWNEAST. OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. AFTER A MOSTLY CLOUDY EVENING...CLOUD COVER
WILL DECREASE ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS OVERNIGHT. CLOUD COVER WILL
DECREASE DOWNEAST TONIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM
THE LOWER TO MID 40S NORTH...TO AROUND 50 INTERIOR DOWNEAST WITH
LOWER TO MID 50S ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST. LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30 NORTH...TO THE
LOWER 30S INTERIOR DOWNEAST WITH LOWER TO MID 30S ALONG THE
DOWNEAST COAST.
&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXPECT A STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH DEEP LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER
THE STATE LATE MONDAY THEN DRIFT TO THE EAST. LOW PRESSURE WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST TUESDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF VERY
SIMILAR WITH LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST TUESDAY THEN
PASSING TO SOUTH. WILL USE MODEL CONSENSUS AND BLEND BOTH MODELS
50/50. WILL USE THE RAW BLEND FOR TEMPERATURE WITH CHANGE IN AIR
MASS EXPECTED.
&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO A POSITION OVER ATLANTIC SOUTH OF NEW
ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTENSIFY. AT THE SAME TIME EXPECT
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO PERSIST TO THE NORTH OF NEW ENGLAND. THIS
SYSTEM IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE TO A POSITION NEAR CAPE COD DURING
THE DAY WEDNESDAY THEN BECOME STATIONARY INTO THURSDAY.
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF RAIN ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND
COASTAL AREAS.
&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY THROUGH
EARLY TONIGHT...WITH GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT.
OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DOWNEAST THIS
MORNING...WITH GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS MONDAY. FOR TUESDAY EXPECT IFR
CONDITIONS KBGR AND KBHB...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS TO NORTH.
IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE
WATERS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: FOR WINDS WILL USE THE NAM12 SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY THEN TRANSITION TO THE MOSG25 WINDS. FOR WAVES: PRIMARY
WAVE GROUP MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE LOCAL SOUTHWEST WIND WAVE
(2-3 FEET/4-5 SECONDS) WITH SECONDARY LONG PERIOD WAVE SYSTEM 2
FEET/9-10 SECONDS. AS OCEAN LOW DEVELOPS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
EXPECT SIGNIFICANT NORTHEAST WIND WAVE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE GULF
OF MAINE (10-12 FEET/8 SECONDS) THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
SECONDARY SOUTHEAST WAVE SYSTEM (6 FEET/9 SECONDS) ALSO GENERATED
BY THE OCEAN LOW. GALE CONDITIONS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. HAVE USED THE NEAR SHORE WAVE MODEL FOR WAVES MONDAY AND
TUESDAY THEN TRANSITION TO THE WAVE WATCH III.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...NORCROSS
SHORT TERM...MIGNONE
LONG TERM...MIGNONE
AVIATION...NORCROSS/MIGNONE
MARINE...NORCROSS/MIGNONE









000
FXUS61 KCAR 190857
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
457 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY SOUTH
OF THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH MID WEEK.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY THROUGH EARLY
TONIGHT THEN LIFT NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS TODAY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS
POSSIBLE DOWNEAST. OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. AFTER A MOSTLY CLOUDY EVENING...CLOUD COVER
WILL DECREASE ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS OVERNIGHT. CLOUD COVER WILL
DECREASE DOWNEAST TONIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM
THE LOWER TO MID 40S NORTH...TO AROUND 50 INTERIOR DOWNEAST WITH
LOWER TO MID 50S ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST. LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30 NORTH...TO THE
LOWER 30S INTERIOR DOWNEAST WITH LOWER TO MID 30S ALONG THE
DOWNEAST COAST.
&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXPECT A STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH DEEP LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER
THE STATE LATE MONDAY THEN DRIFT TO THE EAST. LOW PRESSURE WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST TUESDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF VERY
SIMILAR WITH LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST TUESDAY THEN
PASSING TO SOUTH. WILL USE MODEL CONSENSUS AND BLEND BOTH MODELS
50/50. WILL USE THE RAW BLEND FOR TEMPERATURE WITH CHANGE IN AIR
MASS EXPECTED.
&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO A POSITION OVER ATLANTIC SOUTH OF NEW
ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTENSIFY. AT THE SAME TIME EXPECT
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO PERSIST TO THE NORTH OF NEW ENGLAND. THIS
SYSTEM IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE TO A POSITION NEAR CAPE COD DURING
THE DAY WEDNESDAY THEN BECOME STATIONARY INTO THURSDAY.
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF RAIN ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND
COASTAL AREAS.
&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY THROUGH
EARLY TONIGHT...WITH GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT.
OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DOWNEAST THIS
MORNING...WITH GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS MONDAY. FOR TUESDAY EXPECT IFR
CONDITIONS KBGR AND KBHB...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS TO NORTH.
IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE
WATERS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: FOR WINDS WILL USE THE NAM12 SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY THEN TRANSITION TO THE MOSG25 WINDS. FOR WAVES: PRIMARY
WAVE GROUP MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE LOCAL SOUTHWEST WIND WAVE
(2-3 FEET/4-5 SECONDS) WITH SECONDARY LONG PERIOD WAVE SYSTEM 2
FEET/9-10 SECONDS. AS OCEAN LOW DEVELOPS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
EXPECT SIGNIFICANT NORTHEAST WIND WAVE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE GULF
OF MAINE (10-12 FEET/8 SECONDS) THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
SECONDARY SOUTHEAST WAVE SYSTEM (6 FEET/9 SECONDS) ALSO GENERATED
BY THE OCEAN LOW. GALE CONDITIONS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. HAVE USED THE NEAR SHORE WAVE MODEL FOR WAVES MONDAY AND
TUESDAY THEN TRANSITION TO THE WAVE WATCH III.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...NORCROSS
SHORT TERM...MIGNONE
LONG TERM...MIGNONE
AVIATION...NORCROSS/MIGNONE
MARINE...NORCROSS/MIGNONE









000
FXUS61 KCAR 190857
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
457 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY SOUTH
OF THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH MID WEEK.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY THROUGH EARLY
TONIGHT THEN LIFT NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS TODAY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS
POSSIBLE DOWNEAST. OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. AFTER A MOSTLY CLOUDY EVENING...CLOUD COVER
WILL DECREASE ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS OVERNIGHT. CLOUD COVER WILL
DECREASE DOWNEAST TONIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM
THE LOWER TO MID 40S NORTH...TO AROUND 50 INTERIOR DOWNEAST WITH
LOWER TO MID 50S ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST. LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30 NORTH...TO THE
LOWER 30S INTERIOR DOWNEAST WITH LOWER TO MID 30S ALONG THE
DOWNEAST COAST.
&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXPECT A STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH DEEP LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER
THE STATE LATE MONDAY THEN DRIFT TO THE EAST. LOW PRESSURE WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST TUESDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF VERY
SIMILAR WITH LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST TUESDAY THEN
PASSING TO SOUTH. WILL USE MODEL CONSENSUS AND BLEND BOTH MODELS
50/50. WILL USE THE RAW BLEND FOR TEMPERATURE WITH CHANGE IN AIR
MASS EXPECTED.
&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO A POSITION OVER ATLANTIC SOUTH OF NEW
ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTENSIFY. AT THE SAME TIME EXPECT
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO PERSIST TO THE NORTH OF NEW ENGLAND. THIS
SYSTEM IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE TO A POSITION NEAR CAPE COD DURING
THE DAY WEDNESDAY THEN BECOME STATIONARY INTO THURSDAY.
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF RAIN ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND
COASTAL AREAS.
&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY THROUGH
EARLY TONIGHT...WITH GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT.
OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DOWNEAST THIS
MORNING...WITH GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS MONDAY. FOR TUESDAY EXPECT IFR
CONDITIONS KBGR AND KBHB...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS TO NORTH.
IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE
WATERS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: FOR WINDS WILL USE THE NAM12 SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY THEN TRANSITION TO THE MOSG25 WINDS. FOR WAVES: PRIMARY
WAVE GROUP MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE LOCAL SOUTHWEST WIND WAVE
(2-3 FEET/4-5 SECONDS) WITH SECONDARY LONG PERIOD WAVE SYSTEM 2
FEET/9-10 SECONDS. AS OCEAN LOW DEVELOPS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
EXPECT SIGNIFICANT NORTHEAST WIND WAVE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE GULF
OF MAINE (10-12 FEET/8 SECONDS) THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
SECONDARY SOUTHEAST WAVE SYSTEM (6 FEET/9 SECONDS) ALSO GENERATED
BY THE OCEAN LOW. GALE CONDITIONS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. HAVE USED THE NEAR SHORE WAVE MODEL FOR WAVES MONDAY AND
TUESDAY THEN TRANSITION TO THE WAVE WATCH III.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...NORCROSS
SHORT TERM...MIGNONE
LONG TERM...MIGNONE
AVIATION...NORCROSS/MIGNONE
MARINE...NORCROSS/MIGNONE









000
FXUS61 KGYX 190654
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
254 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A GUSTY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL SET UP BEHIND A DEPARTING FRONT TODAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT AND MONDAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AND
WILL REDEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY NIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE WILL MEANDER OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
MESOSCALE MODEL SUITE THIS MORNING CONTINUES TO SHOW ANOTHER LINE
OF SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION...MAINLY DURING THE LATE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. OTHERWISE...GUSTY WINDS AND
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL ALLOW FOR A MUCH COOLER DAY TODAY
THAN YESTERDAY. IN FACT...THERE WILL BE SOME SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
MIXED IN OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. HIGHEST POPS WILL BE ALONG THE
NW FACING HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE UPSLOPING WILL OCCUR. FURTHER
SOUTH...DOWNSLOPING CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW FOR MORE SUNSHINE AND
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND MONDAY/...
WITH CLEAR SKIES AND A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE
REGION...TEMPERATURES WILL DROP THROUGH THE 30S OVERNIGHT. EXPECT
MANY AREAS ALONG THE COAST TO BE AT OR JUST BELOW FREEZING BY
LATE TONIGHT. THIS HAS PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE OF FREEZE WARNINGS
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA THAT HAS NOT ALREADY
RECEIVED A KILLING FREEZE. QUESTION REMAINS WITH THE GRADIENT
WINDS FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. A LIGHT NORTHWEST BREEZE MAY KEEP
SOME AREAS JUST ABOVE FREEZING.

SOME CLOUDINESS WILL SPILL INTO THE REGION MONDAY AS THE NEXT LONG
WAVE TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND MOVES
SOUTHEAST. PRECIP WILL REMAIN TO OUR WEST DURING THE
DAY...ALLOWING FOR MONDAY TO REMAIN DRY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

MONDAY NIGHT BEGINS WHAT WILL BE QUITE A LONG STRETCH OF WET
WEATHER FOR THE NORTHEAST. ALOFT THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED AS A STRONG TROUGH DIGS INTO THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES. DOWNSTREAM OF US IN THE ATLANTIC A STRONG BERMUDA HIGH AND
SUGGESTIONS OF A CUT OFF LOW DEVELOPING IN THE EAST ATLANTIC SET
THE STAGE FOR A BLOCKING PATTERN. A LOW WILL MOVE OUT OF THE GREAT
LAKES ON TUESDAY. AS IT GETS CAUGHT UP AND ROTATED AROUND THE
UPPER LOW THE SURFACE LOW REDEVELOPS OFF SHORE IN THE ATLANTIC,
SETTING US UP FOR A CLASSIC NOR`EASTER BY WEDNESDAY. THE SURFACE
ISN`T THE ONLY LOW DEVELOPING AS THE 500MB LOW ALSO CLOSES OFF
JUST SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND. WITH A CUT OFF LOW OVERHEAD AND
BLOCKING PATTERN IN PLACE DOWNSTREAM THERE IS NOWHERE FOR THE
SURFACE LOW TO GO... AND IT SITS AND SPINS IN THE GULF OF MAINE
RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

AS WITH ANY LONG RANGE FORECAST... THIS SCENARIO IS NOT SET IN
STONE. ON THE PLUS SIDE...THE BLOCKING PATTERN HAS ONLY BEGUN TO
FORM IN THE N ATLANTIC... WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING A
STRONG LOW OFF SPAIN... HOWEVER THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE GONZALO
STILL NEED TO MOVE OUT OF THE WAY FOR THE HIGH TO DEVELOP IN THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. A SHIFT IN THE LOCATION OF THE BLOCK OR A DELAY
IN ITS FORMATION COULD STILL SPARE US SOME MOISTURE FOR THE MID
WEEK PERIOD. ON THE OTHER HAND... NAEFS ANOMALIES SHOW A PERIOD OF
OVER 48 HOURS WITH 90TH PERCENTILE MOISTURE... AND ANALOG GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SUGGEST VERY HIGH RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE A REALISTIC
POSSIBILITY. OVERALL POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
HEAVY RAIN MIDWEEK. THIS MAY RESULT IN THE FLASHIER RIVERS
REACHING MINOR FLOOD STAGE... AS WELL AS MORE LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING IN FAVORED TERRAIN AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MAINLY VFR...HOWEVER THERE WILL BE PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT OVER INLAND VALLEY LOCATIONS.

LONG TERM... CEILINGS WILL BEING TO LOWER TUESDAY AFTERNOON TO
MVFR AND REMAIN IN IFR WITH PERIODS OF LIFR THROUGH THURSDAY. WIND
SHEAR MAY BE A CONCERN FOR COASTAL SITES ON WEDNESDAY AS THE JET
PASSES OVERHEAD.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SCAS HAVE BEEN EXTENDED FOR BOTH WINDS AND SEAS.

LONG TERM... DEVELOPING LOW WILL BRING WINDS AND SEAS UP TUESDAY
AFTERNOON... REACHING GALE STRENGTH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
THE OUTER WATERS AND UPPER END OF SMALL CRAFT FOR THE BAYS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 7 AM EDT MONDAY FOR MEZ023>028.
NH...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 7 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NHZ013-014.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
MC/JC




000
FXUS61 KCAR 190603
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
203 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL TROF
WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION MONDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
UPDATE...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE EXITS ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE. AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT. EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
ALONG WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. ACROSS CENTRAL/DOWNEAST AREAS EXPECT
GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT WITH AN ISOLATED SHOWER
POSSIBLE LATE. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 30S ACROSS NORTHWEST AREAS...TO THE LOWER 40S ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF NORTHERN MAINE. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES ACROSS
DOWNEAST AREAS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 40S.
HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADJUST FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS ALONG
WITH EXPECTED OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES...CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER
CHANCES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SUNDAY WILL BE A BLUSTERY AND MUCH COOLER DAY BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE REGION WILL KEEP
SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY AND SCATTERED SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED.
MODERATELY STRONG COLD ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS
AND MID TO UPPER 40S DOWNEAST.
&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MARITIMES COMBINED WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING ONTO THE EAST COAST WILL MAINTAIN A CHILLY WESTERLY
BREEZE SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPS WILL FALL A FEW DEGREES BELOW FREEZING
IN MOST AREAS. MONDAY WILL BEGIN SUNNY AND COLD ACROSS THE
REGION. HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE MONDAY AFTERNOON FROM A LARGE
AND SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM WHICH WILL BEGIN DEVELOPING OVER THE
GREAT LAKES EARLY NEXT WEEK. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS THIS LOW SLIDES SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST. DEEP AMPLIFICATION OF THE JET STREAM WITH
STEEP RIDGING IN CENTRAL CANADA AND A TROUGH DIGGING TOWARD THE
EAST COAST WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LARGE AND SLOW
MOVING STORM SYSTEM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON TUESDAY. SOME
LIGHT RAIN MAY BEGIN TO STRAY INTO DOWNEAST AREAS LATE TUESDAY
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM.
&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD THERE WILL BE A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE NORTH OF MAINE THAT WILL BE RETREATING TO THE NORTHEAST...A
LOW ALONG THE COAST OF DELMARVA...THAT WILL BE MOVING SLOWLY NORTH
ALONG THE COAST. BY WED MRNG THE LOW WILL MOVE NORTH TO SE OF CAPE
COD...BY THIS TIME THE LOW WILL HAVE AN OCCLUDED FRONT WRAPPED
AROUND IT THAT EXTENDS INTO SOUTHERN MAINE. ITS ASSOCIATED UPPER
LOW WILL BE STACKED JUST WEST OF THE SFC LOW OVER NJ. BY WED
EVNG...THE GFS STACKS THE UPPER LOW OVER THE SFC LOW OVER CAPE
COD. THE ECMWF/GEM SHOW THE LOW ALONG THE COAST OF DELMARVA WITH
THE UPPER LOW REMAINING WEST OF THE SFC LOW. BY THURS MRNG THE
ECMWF CATCHES UP WITH THE GFS...MOVING THE CENTER TO A POSITION
SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND...THE GFS SHIFTS THE CENTER TO A SIMILAR
LOCATION...THE GEM REMAINS FURTHER SOUTH EAST OF DELMARVA. FROM
HERE THROUGH SAT AFTN...THE GFS/ECMWF MOVE THE CENTER ACROSS THE
GULF OF MAINE INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. BOTH KEEP MAINE UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF THE OCCLUDED FRONT THROUGH THE PERIOD. BY THE END
OF THE PERIOD...THE LOW WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA IN THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES...WRAP AROUND PRECIP WILL BE BROUGHT BACK INTO NRN AND
CNTRL MAINE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

LOADED THE SUPERBLEND...NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS IN THE COASTAL WATERS.
ADDED 15 PERCENT TO THE WINDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND...25 PERCENT
OVER WATER.
&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: OCCASIONAL MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY...WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE REST OF SUNDAY. GENERALLY VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DOWNEAST OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

SHORT TERM: CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR SUNDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN
VFR THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS MAY LOWER TO MVFR DOWNEAST ON
TUESDAY BUT REMAIN VFR ACROSS THE NORTH.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...MOSTLY FOR SEAS FROM A SOUTH
SWELL...REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

SHORT TERM: AN SCA WILL BE NEEDED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING
FOR GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS RIDGING BRIEFLY MOVES OVER
THE WATERS.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...NORCROSS/DUDA
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...NORTON
AVIATION...NORCROSS/BLOOMER
MARINE...NORCROSS/BLOOMER






000
FXUS61 KCAR 190603
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
203 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL TROF
WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION MONDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
UPDATE...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE EXITS ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE. AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT. EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
ALONG WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. ACROSS CENTRAL/DOWNEAST AREAS EXPECT
GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT WITH AN ISOLATED SHOWER
POSSIBLE LATE. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 30S ACROSS NORTHWEST AREAS...TO THE LOWER 40S ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF NORTHERN MAINE. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES ACROSS
DOWNEAST AREAS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 40S.
HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADJUST FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS ALONG
WITH EXPECTED OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES...CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER
CHANCES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SUNDAY WILL BE A BLUSTERY AND MUCH COOLER DAY BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE REGION WILL KEEP
SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY AND SCATTERED SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED.
MODERATELY STRONG COLD ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS
AND MID TO UPPER 40S DOWNEAST.
&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MARITIMES COMBINED WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING ONTO THE EAST COAST WILL MAINTAIN A CHILLY WESTERLY
BREEZE SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPS WILL FALL A FEW DEGREES BELOW FREEZING
IN MOST AREAS. MONDAY WILL BEGIN SUNNY AND COLD ACROSS THE
REGION. HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE MONDAY AFTERNOON FROM A LARGE
AND SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM WHICH WILL BEGIN DEVELOPING OVER THE
GREAT LAKES EARLY NEXT WEEK. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS THIS LOW SLIDES SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST. DEEP AMPLIFICATION OF THE JET STREAM WITH
STEEP RIDGING IN CENTRAL CANADA AND A TROUGH DIGGING TOWARD THE
EAST COAST WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LARGE AND SLOW
MOVING STORM SYSTEM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON TUESDAY. SOME
LIGHT RAIN MAY BEGIN TO STRAY INTO DOWNEAST AREAS LATE TUESDAY
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM.
&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD THERE WILL BE A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE NORTH OF MAINE THAT WILL BE RETREATING TO THE NORTHEAST...A
LOW ALONG THE COAST OF DELMARVA...THAT WILL BE MOVING SLOWLY NORTH
ALONG THE COAST. BY WED MRNG THE LOW WILL MOVE NORTH TO SE OF CAPE
COD...BY THIS TIME THE LOW WILL HAVE AN OCCLUDED FRONT WRAPPED
AROUND IT THAT EXTENDS INTO SOUTHERN MAINE. ITS ASSOCIATED UPPER
LOW WILL BE STACKED JUST WEST OF THE SFC LOW OVER NJ. BY WED
EVNG...THE GFS STACKS THE UPPER LOW OVER THE SFC LOW OVER CAPE
COD. THE ECMWF/GEM SHOW THE LOW ALONG THE COAST OF DELMARVA WITH
THE UPPER LOW REMAINING WEST OF THE SFC LOW. BY THURS MRNG THE
ECMWF CATCHES UP WITH THE GFS...MOVING THE CENTER TO A POSITION
SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND...THE GFS SHIFTS THE CENTER TO A SIMILAR
LOCATION...THE GEM REMAINS FURTHER SOUTH EAST OF DELMARVA. FROM
HERE THROUGH SAT AFTN...THE GFS/ECMWF MOVE THE CENTER ACROSS THE
GULF OF MAINE INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. BOTH KEEP MAINE UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF THE OCCLUDED FRONT THROUGH THE PERIOD. BY THE END
OF THE PERIOD...THE LOW WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA IN THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES...WRAP AROUND PRECIP WILL BE BROUGHT BACK INTO NRN AND
CNTRL MAINE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

LOADED THE SUPERBLEND...NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS IN THE COASTAL WATERS.
ADDED 15 PERCENT TO THE WINDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND...25 PERCENT
OVER WATER.
&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: OCCASIONAL MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY...WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE REST OF SUNDAY. GENERALLY VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DOWNEAST OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

SHORT TERM: CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR SUNDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN
VFR THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS MAY LOWER TO MVFR DOWNEAST ON
TUESDAY BUT REMAIN VFR ACROSS THE NORTH.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...MOSTLY FOR SEAS FROM A SOUTH
SWELL...REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

SHORT TERM: AN SCA WILL BE NEEDED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING
FOR GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS RIDGING BRIEFLY MOVES OVER
THE WATERS.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...NORCROSS/DUDA
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...NORTON
AVIATION...NORCROSS/BLOOMER
MARINE...NORCROSS/BLOOMER






000
FXUS61 KCAR 190603
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
203 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL TROF
WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION MONDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
UPDATE...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE EXITS ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE. AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT. EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
ALONG WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. ACROSS CENTRAL/DOWNEAST AREAS EXPECT
GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT WITH AN ISOLATED SHOWER
POSSIBLE LATE. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 30S ACROSS NORTHWEST AREAS...TO THE LOWER 40S ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF NORTHERN MAINE. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES ACROSS
DOWNEAST AREAS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 40S.
HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADJUST FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS ALONG
WITH EXPECTED OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES...CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER
CHANCES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SUNDAY WILL BE A BLUSTERY AND MUCH COOLER DAY BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE REGION WILL KEEP
SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY AND SCATTERED SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED.
MODERATELY STRONG COLD ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS
AND MID TO UPPER 40S DOWNEAST.
&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MARITIMES COMBINED WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING ONTO THE EAST COAST WILL MAINTAIN A CHILLY WESTERLY
BREEZE SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPS WILL FALL A FEW DEGREES BELOW FREEZING
IN MOST AREAS. MONDAY WILL BEGIN SUNNY AND COLD ACROSS THE
REGION. HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE MONDAY AFTERNOON FROM A LARGE
AND SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM WHICH WILL BEGIN DEVELOPING OVER THE
GREAT LAKES EARLY NEXT WEEK. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS THIS LOW SLIDES SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST. DEEP AMPLIFICATION OF THE JET STREAM WITH
STEEP RIDGING IN CENTRAL CANADA AND A TROUGH DIGGING TOWARD THE
EAST COAST WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LARGE AND SLOW
MOVING STORM SYSTEM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON TUESDAY. SOME
LIGHT RAIN MAY BEGIN TO STRAY INTO DOWNEAST AREAS LATE TUESDAY
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM.
&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD THERE WILL BE A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE NORTH OF MAINE THAT WILL BE RETREATING TO THE NORTHEAST...A
LOW ALONG THE COAST OF DELMARVA...THAT WILL BE MOVING SLOWLY NORTH
ALONG THE COAST. BY WED MRNG THE LOW WILL MOVE NORTH TO SE OF CAPE
COD...BY THIS TIME THE LOW WILL HAVE AN OCCLUDED FRONT WRAPPED
AROUND IT THAT EXTENDS INTO SOUTHERN MAINE. ITS ASSOCIATED UPPER
LOW WILL BE STACKED JUST WEST OF THE SFC LOW OVER NJ. BY WED
EVNG...THE GFS STACKS THE UPPER LOW OVER THE SFC LOW OVER CAPE
COD. THE ECMWF/GEM SHOW THE LOW ALONG THE COAST OF DELMARVA WITH
THE UPPER LOW REMAINING WEST OF THE SFC LOW. BY THURS MRNG THE
ECMWF CATCHES UP WITH THE GFS...MOVING THE CENTER TO A POSITION
SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND...THE GFS SHIFTS THE CENTER TO A SIMILAR
LOCATION...THE GEM REMAINS FURTHER SOUTH EAST OF DELMARVA. FROM
HERE THROUGH SAT AFTN...THE GFS/ECMWF MOVE THE CENTER ACROSS THE
GULF OF MAINE INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. BOTH KEEP MAINE UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF THE OCCLUDED FRONT THROUGH THE PERIOD. BY THE END
OF THE PERIOD...THE LOW WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA IN THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES...WRAP AROUND PRECIP WILL BE BROUGHT BACK INTO NRN AND
CNTRL MAINE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

LOADED THE SUPERBLEND...NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS IN THE COASTAL WATERS.
ADDED 15 PERCENT TO THE WINDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND...25 PERCENT
OVER WATER.
&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: OCCASIONAL MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY...WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE REST OF SUNDAY. GENERALLY VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DOWNEAST OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

SHORT TERM: CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR SUNDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN
VFR THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS MAY LOWER TO MVFR DOWNEAST ON
TUESDAY BUT REMAIN VFR ACROSS THE NORTH.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...MOSTLY FOR SEAS FROM A SOUTH
SWELL...REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

SHORT TERM: AN SCA WILL BE NEEDED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING
FOR GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS RIDGING BRIEFLY MOVES OVER
THE WATERS.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...NORCROSS/DUDA
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...NORTON
AVIATION...NORCROSS/BLOOMER
MARINE...NORCROSS/BLOOMER






000
FXUS61 KCAR 190603
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
203 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL TROF
WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION MONDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
UPDATE...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE EXITS ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE. AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT. EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
ALONG WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. ACROSS CENTRAL/DOWNEAST AREAS EXPECT
GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT WITH AN ISOLATED SHOWER
POSSIBLE LATE. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 30S ACROSS NORTHWEST AREAS...TO THE LOWER 40S ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF NORTHERN MAINE. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES ACROSS
DOWNEAST AREAS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 40S.
HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADJUST FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS ALONG
WITH EXPECTED OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES...CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER
CHANCES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SUNDAY WILL BE A BLUSTERY AND MUCH COOLER DAY BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE REGION WILL KEEP
SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY AND SCATTERED SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED.
MODERATELY STRONG COLD ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS
AND MID TO UPPER 40S DOWNEAST.
&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MARITIMES COMBINED WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING ONTO THE EAST COAST WILL MAINTAIN A CHILLY WESTERLY
BREEZE SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPS WILL FALL A FEW DEGREES BELOW FREEZING
IN MOST AREAS. MONDAY WILL BEGIN SUNNY AND COLD ACROSS THE
REGION. HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE MONDAY AFTERNOON FROM A LARGE
AND SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM WHICH WILL BEGIN DEVELOPING OVER THE
GREAT LAKES EARLY NEXT WEEK. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS THIS LOW SLIDES SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST. DEEP AMPLIFICATION OF THE JET STREAM WITH
STEEP RIDGING IN CENTRAL CANADA AND A TROUGH DIGGING TOWARD THE
EAST COAST WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LARGE AND SLOW
MOVING STORM SYSTEM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON TUESDAY. SOME
LIGHT RAIN MAY BEGIN TO STRAY INTO DOWNEAST AREAS LATE TUESDAY
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM.
&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD THERE WILL BE A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE NORTH OF MAINE THAT WILL BE RETREATING TO THE NORTHEAST...A
LOW ALONG THE COAST OF DELMARVA...THAT WILL BE MOVING SLOWLY NORTH
ALONG THE COAST. BY WED MRNG THE LOW WILL MOVE NORTH TO SE OF CAPE
COD...BY THIS TIME THE LOW WILL HAVE AN OCCLUDED FRONT WRAPPED
AROUND IT THAT EXTENDS INTO SOUTHERN MAINE. ITS ASSOCIATED UPPER
LOW WILL BE STACKED JUST WEST OF THE SFC LOW OVER NJ. BY WED
EVNG...THE GFS STACKS THE UPPER LOW OVER THE SFC LOW OVER CAPE
COD. THE ECMWF/GEM SHOW THE LOW ALONG THE COAST OF DELMARVA WITH
THE UPPER LOW REMAINING WEST OF THE SFC LOW. BY THURS MRNG THE
ECMWF CATCHES UP WITH THE GFS...MOVING THE CENTER TO A POSITION
SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND...THE GFS SHIFTS THE CENTER TO A SIMILAR
LOCATION...THE GEM REMAINS FURTHER SOUTH EAST OF DELMARVA. FROM
HERE THROUGH SAT AFTN...THE GFS/ECMWF MOVE THE CENTER ACROSS THE
GULF OF MAINE INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. BOTH KEEP MAINE UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF THE OCCLUDED FRONT THROUGH THE PERIOD. BY THE END
OF THE PERIOD...THE LOW WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA IN THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES...WRAP AROUND PRECIP WILL BE BROUGHT BACK INTO NRN AND
CNTRL MAINE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

LOADED THE SUPERBLEND...NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS IN THE COASTAL WATERS.
ADDED 15 PERCENT TO THE WINDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND...25 PERCENT
OVER WATER.
&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: OCCASIONAL MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY...WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE REST OF SUNDAY. GENERALLY VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DOWNEAST OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

SHORT TERM: CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR SUNDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN
VFR THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS MAY LOWER TO MVFR DOWNEAST ON
TUESDAY BUT REMAIN VFR ACROSS THE NORTH.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...MOSTLY FOR SEAS FROM A SOUTH
SWELL...REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

SHORT TERM: AN SCA WILL BE NEEDED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING
FOR GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS RIDGING BRIEFLY MOVES OVER
THE WATERS.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...NORCROSS/DUDA
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...NORTON
AVIATION...NORCROSS/BLOOMER
MARINE...NORCROSS/BLOOMER






000
FXUS61 KCAR 190216
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1016 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE SUNDAY. COLD HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE STATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
935 PM UPDATE: LATEST RADAR REF TRENDS INDICATE THAT WE CAN TAKE
THUNDER OUT OF THE FCST FOR THE REST OF THE NGT. CAN`T RULE OUT
A BRIEF HVY DOWNPOUR FOR A FEW NRN AND ERN LCTNS OVR THE NEXT HR
OR TWO...BUT FOR THE MOST PART THE HEAVIEST RNFL WITH THIS S/WV AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT HAS MOVED NE OF THE REGION. ADJUSTMENTS WERE
MADE AGAIN...MSLY UPWARDS OVR THE NE PTN OF THE REGION...TO THE
00-06Z RNFL TOTAL BASED ON RADAR STP ESTIMATES. OTHERWISE...FCST
HRLY TEMPS...DWPTS AND WINDS WERE ADJUSTED THRU THE OVRGNT BASED
ON LATEST OBS AND BIASES FROM THE PREV FCST. FCST OVRNGT LOWS FOR
ERLY SUN MORN REMAIN UNCHGD ATTM.

ORGNL DISC: AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
REALITY IS JUST A COLD FRONT AWAY. THAT COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY
CROSSING QUEBEC WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO
LOWER 40S THIS AFTERNOON.

THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT REACHING THE COAST BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE REGION TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY BRINGING RAIN TO
PORTIONS OF NEW YORK STATE AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AS OF LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS AREA OF RAIN WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN
MAINE THIS EVENING WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AND MORE SHOWERY CONDITIONS DOWN EAST. LOW
TEMPERATURES BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WILL FALL INTO THE MID 30S
ACROSS NORTHWEST AREAS AND LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS THE REST OF THE
REGION.

SUNDAY WILL BE A BLUSTERY AND MUCH COOLER DAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE REGION WILL KEEP SKIES
MOSTLY CLOUDY AND SCATTERED SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED. MODERATELY
STRONG COLD ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AND MID
TO UPPER 40S DOWNEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MARITIMES COMBINED WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING ONTO THE EAST COAST WILL MAINTAIN A CHILLY WESTERLY
BREEZE SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPS WILL FALL A FEW DEGREES BELOW FREEZING
IN MOST AREAS. MONDAY WILL BEGIN SUNNY AND COLD ACROSS THE
REGION. HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE MONDAY AFTERNOON FROM A LARGE
AND SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM WHICH WILL BEGIN DEVELOPING OVER THE
GREAT LAKES EARLY NEXT WEEK. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS THIS LOW SLIDES SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST. DEEP AMPLIFICATION OF THE JET STREAM WITH
STEEP RIDGING IN CENTRAL CANADA AND A TROUGH DIGGING TOWARD THE
EAST COAST WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LARGE AND SLOW
MOVING STORM SYSTEM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON TUESDAY. SOME
LIGHT RAIN MAY BEGIN TO STRAY INTO DOWNEAST AREAS LATE TUESDAY
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD THERE WILL BE A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE NORTH OF MAINE THAT WILL BE RETREATING TO THE NORTHEAST...A
LOW ALONG THE COAST OF DELMARVA...THAT WILL BE MOVING SLOWLY NORTH
ALONG THE COAST. BY WED MRNG THE LOW WILL MOVE NORTH TO SE OF CAPE
COD...BY THIS TIME THE LOW WILL HAVE AN OCCLUDED FRONT WRAPPED
AROUND IT THAT EXTENDS INTO SOUTHERN MAINE. ITS ASSOCIATED UPPER
LOW WILL BE STACKED JUST WEST OF THE SFC LOW OVER NJ. BY WED
EVNG...THE GFS STACKS THE UPPER LOW OVER THE SFC LOW OVER CAPE
COD. THE ECMWF/GEM SHOW THE LOW ALONG THE COAST OF DELMARVA WITH
THE UPPER LOW REMAINING WEST OF THE SFC LOW. BY THURS MRNG THE
ECMWF CATCHES UP WITH THE GFS...MOVING THE CENTER TO A POSITION
SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND...THE GFS SHIFTS THE CENTER TO A SIMILAR
LOCATION...THE GEM REMAINS FURTHER SOUTH EAST OF DELMARVA. FROM
HERE THROUGH SAT AFTN...THE GFS/ECMWF MOVE THE CENTER ACROSS THE
GULF OF MAINE INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. BOTH KEEP MAINE UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF THE OCCLUDED FRONT THROUGH THE PERIOD. BY THE END
OF THE PERIOD...THE LOW WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA IN THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES...WRAP AROUND PRECIP WILL BE BROUGHT BACK INTO NRN AND
CNTRL MAINE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

LOADED THE SUPERBLEND...NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS IN THE COASTAL WATERS.
ADDED 15 PERCENT TO THE WINDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND...25 PERCENT
OVER WATER.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT MAINLY MVFR TO OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT
DUE TO CLOUDS AND RAIN/RAIN SHOWERS. SOUTH WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
SHIFT INTO THE WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS EAST
ACROSS THE REGION. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE EAST OF THE
COAST BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE
REGION SUNDAY WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND GENERALLY MVFR
CONDITIONS DURING SUNDAY.

SHORT TERM: CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR SUNDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN
VFR THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS MAY LOWER TO MVFR DOWNEAST ON
TUESDAY BUT REMAIN VFR ACROSS THE NORTH.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY.
LONG PERIOD SWELL FROM GONZALO WILL AFFECT THE WATERS BRINGING
ROUGH SEAS IN S TO SE SWELL THROUGH SUNDAY.

SHORT TERM: AN SCA WILL BE NEEDED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING
FOR GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS RIDGING BRIEFLY MOVES OVER
THE WATERS.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...NORTON
AVIATION...VJN/BLOOMER
MARINE...VJN/BLOOMER












000
FXUS61 KCAR 190216
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1016 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE SUNDAY. COLD HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE STATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
935 PM UPDATE: LATEST RADAR REF TRENDS INDICATE THAT WE CAN TAKE
THUNDER OUT OF THE FCST FOR THE REST OF THE NGT. CAN`T RULE OUT
A BRIEF HVY DOWNPOUR FOR A FEW NRN AND ERN LCTNS OVR THE NEXT HR
OR TWO...BUT FOR THE MOST PART THE HEAVIEST RNFL WITH THIS S/WV AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT HAS MOVED NE OF THE REGION. ADJUSTMENTS WERE
MADE AGAIN...MSLY UPWARDS OVR THE NE PTN OF THE REGION...TO THE
00-06Z RNFL TOTAL BASED ON RADAR STP ESTIMATES. OTHERWISE...FCST
HRLY TEMPS...DWPTS AND WINDS WERE ADJUSTED THRU THE OVRGNT BASED
ON LATEST OBS AND BIASES FROM THE PREV FCST. FCST OVRNGT LOWS FOR
ERLY SUN MORN REMAIN UNCHGD ATTM.

ORGNL DISC: AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
REALITY IS JUST A COLD FRONT AWAY. THAT COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY
CROSSING QUEBEC WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO
LOWER 40S THIS AFTERNOON.

THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT REACHING THE COAST BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE REGION TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY BRINGING RAIN TO
PORTIONS OF NEW YORK STATE AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AS OF LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS AREA OF RAIN WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN
MAINE THIS EVENING WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AND MORE SHOWERY CONDITIONS DOWN EAST. LOW
TEMPERATURES BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WILL FALL INTO THE MID 30S
ACROSS NORTHWEST AREAS AND LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS THE REST OF THE
REGION.

SUNDAY WILL BE A BLUSTERY AND MUCH COOLER DAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE REGION WILL KEEP SKIES
MOSTLY CLOUDY AND SCATTERED SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED. MODERATELY
STRONG COLD ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AND MID
TO UPPER 40S DOWNEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MARITIMES COMBINED WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING ONTO THE EAST COAST WILL MAINTAIN A CHILLY WESTERLY
BREEZE SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPS WILL FALL A FEW DEGREES BELOW FREEZING
IN MOST AREAS. MONDAY WILL BEGIN SUNNY AND COLD ACROSS THE
REGION. HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE MONDAY AFTERNOON FROM A LARGE
AND SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM WHICH WILL BEGIN DEVELOPING OVER THE
GREAT LAKES EARLY NEXT WEEK. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS THIS LOW SLIDES SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST. DEEP AMPLIFICATION OF THE JET STREAM WITH
STEEP RIDGING IN CENTRAL CANADA AND A TROUGH DIGGING TOWARD THE
EAST COAST WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LARGE AND SLOW
MOVING STORM SYSTEM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON TUESDAY. SOME
LIGHT RAIN MAY BEGIN TO STRAY INTO DOWNEAST AREAS LATE TUESDAY
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD THERE WILL BE A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE NORTH OF MAINE THAT WILL BE RETREATING TO THE NORTHEAST...A
LOW ALONG THE COAST OF DELMARVA...THAT WILL BE MOVING SLOWLY NORTH
ALONG THE COAST. BY WED MRNG THE LOW WILL MOVE NORTH TO SE OF CAPE
COD...BY THIS TIME THE LOW WILL HAVE AN OCCLUDED FRONT WRAPPED
AROUND IT THAT EXTENDS INTO SOUTHERN MAINE. ITS ASSOCIATED UPPER
LOW WILL BE STACKED JUST WEST OF THE SFC LOW OVER NJ. BY WED
EVNG...THE GFS STACKS THE UPPER LOW OVER THE SFC LOW OVER CAPE
COD. THE ECMWF/GEM SHOW THE LOW ALONG THE COAST OF DELMARVA WITH
THE UPPER LOW REMAINING WEST OF THE SFC LOW. BY THURS MRNG THE
ECMWF CATCHES UP WITH THE GFS...MOVING THE CENTER TO A POSITION
SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND...THE GFS SHIFTS THE CENTER TO A SIMILAR
LOCATION...THE GEM REMAINS FURTHER SOUTH EAST OF DELMARVA. FROM
HERE THROUGH SAT AFTN...THE GFS/ECMWF MOVE THE CENTER ACROSS THE
GULF OF MAINE INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. BOTH KEEP MAINE UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF THE OCCLUDED FRONT THROUGH THE PERIOD. BY THE END
OF THE PERIOD...THE LOW WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA IN THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES...WRAP AROUND PRECIP WILL BE BROUGHT BACK INTO NRN AND
CNTRL MAINE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

LOADED THE SUPERBLEND...NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS IN THE COASTAL WATERS.
ADDED 15 PERCENT TO THE WINDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND...25 PERCENT
OVER WATER.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT MAINLY MVFR TO OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT
DUE TO CLOUDS AND RAIN/RAIN SHOWERS. SOUTH WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
SHIFT INTO THE WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS EAST
ACROSS THE REGION. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE EAST OF THE
COAST BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE
REGION SUNDAY WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND GENERALLY MVFR
CONDITIONS DURING SUNDAY.

SHORT TERM: CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR SUNDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN
VFR THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS MAY LOWER TO MVFR DOWNEAST ON
TUESDAY BUT REMAIN VFR ACROSS THE NORTH.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY.
LONG PERIOD SWELL FROM GONZALO WILL AFFECT THE WATERS BRINGING
ROUGH SEAS IN S TO SE SWELL THROUGH SUNDAY.

SHORT TERM: AN SCA WILL BE NEEDED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING
FOR GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS RIDGING BRIEFLY MOVES OVER
THE WATERS.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...NORTON
AVIATION...VJN/BLOOMER
MARINE...VJN/BLOOMER












000
FXUS61 KCAR 190216
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1016 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE SUNDAY. COLD HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE STATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
935 PM UPDATE: LATEST RADAR REF TRENDS INDICATE THAT WE CAN TAKE
THUNDER OUT OF THE FCST FOR THE REST OF THE NGT. CAN`T RULE OUT
A BRIEF HVY DOWNPOUR FOR A FEW NRN AND ERN LCTNS OVR THE NEXT HR
OR TWO...BUT FOR THE MOST PART THE HEAVIEST RNFL WITH THIS S/WV AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT HAS MOVED NE OF THE REGION. ADJUSTMENTS WERE
MADE AGAIN...MSLY UPWARDS OVR THE NE PTN OF THE REGION...TO THE
00-06Z RNFL TOTAL BASED ON RADAR STP ESTIMATES. OTHERWISE...FCST
HRLY TEMPS...DWPTS AND WINDS WERE ADJUSTED THRU THE OVRGNT BASED
ON LATEST OBS AND BIASES FROM THE PREV FCST. FCST OVRNGT LOWS FOR
ERLY SUN MORN REMAIN UNCHGD ATTM.

ORGNL DISC: AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
REALITY IS JUST A COLD FRONT AWAY. THAT COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY
CROSSING QUEBEC WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO
LOWER 40S THIS AFTERNOON.

THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT REACHING THE COAST BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE REGION TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY BRINGING RAIN TO
PORTIONS OF NEW YORK STATE AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AS OF LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS AREA OF RAIN WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN
MAINE THIS EVENING WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AND MORE SHOWERY CONDITIONS DOWN EAST. LOW
TEMPERATURES BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WILL FALL INTO THE MID 30S
ACROSS NORTHWEST AREAS AND LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS THE REST OF THE
REGION.

SUNDAY WILL BE A BLUSTERY AND MUCH COOLER DAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE REGION WILL KEEP SKIES
MOSTLY CLOUDY AND SCATTERED SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED. MODERATELY
STRONG COLD ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AND MID
TO UPPER 40S DOWNEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MARITIMES COMBINED WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING ONTO THE EAST COAST WILL MAINTAIN A CHILLY WESTERLY
BREEZE SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPS WILL FALL A FEW DEGREES BELOW FREEZING
IN MOST AREAS. MONDAY WILL BEGIN SUNNY AND COLD ACROSS THE
REGION. HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE MONDAY AFTERNOON FROM A LARGE
AND SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM WHICH WILL BEGIN DEVELOPING OVER THE
GREAT LAKES EARLY NEXT WEEK. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS THIS LOW SLIDES SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST. DEEP AMPLIFICATION OF THE JET STREAM WITH
STEEP RIDGING IN CENTRAL CANADA AND A TROUGH DIGGING TOWARD THE
EAST COAST WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LARGE AND SLOW
MOVING STORM SYSTEM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON TUESDAY. SOME
LIGHT RAIN MAY BEGIN TO STRAY INTO DOWNEAST AREAS LATE TUESDAY
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD THERE WILL BE A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE NORTH OF MAINE THAT WILL BE RETREATING TO THE NORTHEAST...A
LOW ALONG THE COAST OF DELMARVA...THAT WILL BE MOVING SLOWLY NORTH
ALONG THE COAST. BY WED MRNG THE LOW WILL MOVE NORTH TO SE OF CAPE
COD...BY THIS TIME THE LOW WILL HAVE AN OCCLUDED FRONT WRAPPED
AROUND IT THAT EXTENDS INTO SOUTHERN MAINE. ITS ASSOCIATED UPPER
LOW WILL BE STACKED JUST WEST OF THE SFC LOW OVER NJ. BY WED
EVNG...THE GFS STACKS THE UPPER LOW OVER THE SFC LOW OVER CAPE
COD. THE ECMWF/GEM SHOW THE LOW ALONG THE COAST OF DELMARVA WITH
THE UPPER LOW REMAINING WEST OF THE SFC LOW. BY THURS MRNG THE
ECMWF CATCHES UP WITH THE GFS...MOVING THE CENTER TO A POSITION
SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND...THE GFS SHIFTS THE CENTER TO A SIMILAR
LOCATION...THE GEM REMAINS FURTHER SOUTH EAST OF DELMARVA. FROM
HERE THROUGH SAT AFTN...THE GFS/ECMWF MOVE THE CENTER ACROSS THE
GULF OF MAINE INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. BOTH KEEP MAINE UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF THE OCCLUDED FRONT THROUGH THE PERIOD. BY THE END
OF THE PERIOD...THE LOW WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA IN THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES...WRAP AROUND PRECIP WILL BE BROUGHT BACK INTO NRN AND
CNTRL MAINE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

LOADED THE SUPERBLEND...NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS IN THE COASTAL WATERS.
ADDED 15 PERCENT TO THE WINDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND...25 PERCENT
OVER WATER.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT MAINLY MVFR TO OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT
DUE TO CLOUDS AND RAIN/RAIN SHOWERS. SOUTH WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
SHIFT INTO THE WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS EAST
ACROSS THE REGION. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE EAST OF THE
COAST BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE
REGION SUNDAY WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND GENERALLY MVFR
CONDITIONS DURING SUNDAY.

SHORT TERM: CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR SUNDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN
VFR THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS MAY LOWER TO MVFR DOWNEAST ON
TUESDAY BUT REMAIN VFR ACROSS THE NORTH.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY.
LONG PERIOD SWELL FROM GONZALO WILL AFFECT THE WATERS BRINGING
ROUGH SEAS IN S TO SE SWELL THROUGH SUNDAY.

SHORT TERM: AN SCA WILL BE NEEDED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING
FOR GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS RIDGING BRIEFLY MOVES OVER
THE WATERS.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...NORTON
AVIATION...VJN/BLOOMER
MARINE...VJN/BLOOMER












000
FXUS61 KCAR 190216
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1016 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE SUNDAY. COLD HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE STATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
935 PM UPDATE: LATEST RADAR REF TRENDS INDICATE THAT WE CAN TAKE
THUNDER OUT OF THE FCST FOR THE REST OF THE NGT. CAN`T RULE OUT
A BRIEF HVY DOWNPOUR FOR A FEW NRN AND ERN LCTNS OVR THE NEXT HR
OR TWO...BUT FOR THE MOST PART THE HEAVIEST RNFL WITH THIS S/WV AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT HAS MOVED NE OF THE REGION. ADJUSTMENTS WERE
MADE AGAIN...MSLY UPWARDS OVR THE NE PTN OF THE REGION...TO THE
00-06Z RNFL TOTAL BASED ON RADAR STP ESTIMATES. OTHERWISE...FCST
HRLY TEMPS...DWPTS AND WINDS WERE ADJUSTED THRU THE OVRGNT BASED
ON LATEST OBS AND BIASES FROM THE PREV FCST. FCST OVRNGT LOWS FOR
ERLY SUN MORN REMAIN UNCHGD ATTM.

ORGNL DISC: AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
REALITY IS JUST A COLD FRONT AWAY. THAT COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY
CROSSING QUEBEC WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO
LOWER 40S THIS AFTERNOON.

THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT REACHING THE COAST BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE REGION TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY BRINGING RAIN TO
PORTIONS OF NEW YORK STATE AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AS OF LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS AREA OF RAIN WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN
MAINE THIS EVENING WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AND MORE SHOWERY CONDITIONS DOWN EAST. LOW
TEMPERATURES BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WILL FALL INTO THE MID 30S
ACROSS NORTHWEST AREAS AND LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS THE REST OF THE
REGION.

SUNDAY WILL BE A BLUSTERY AND MUCH COOLER DAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE REGION WILL KEEP SKIES
MOSTLY CLOUDY AND SCATTERED SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED. MODERATELY
STRONG COLD ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AND MID
TO UPPER 40S DOWNEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MARITIMES COMBINED WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING ONTO THE EAST COAST WILL MAINTAIN A CHILLY WESTERLY
BREEZE SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPS WILL FALL A FEW DEGREES BELOW FREEZING
IN MOST AREAS. MONDAY WILL BEGIN SUNNY AND COLD ACROSS THE
REGION. HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE MONDAY AFTERNOON FROM A LARGE
AND SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM WHICH WILL BEGIN DEVELOPING OVER THE
GREAT LAKES EARLY NEXT WEEK. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS THIS LOW SLIDES SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST. DEEP AMPLIFICATION OF THE JET STREAM WITH
STEEP RIDGING IN CENTRAL CANADA AND A TROUGH DIGGING TOWARD THE
EAST COAST WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LARGE AND SLOW
MOVING STORM SYSTEM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON TUESDAY. SOME
LIGHT RAIN MAY BEGIN TO STRAY INTO DOWNEAST AREAS LATE TUESDAY
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD THERE WILL BE A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE NORTH OF MAINE THAT WILL BE RETREATING TO THE NORTHEAST...A
LOW ALONG THE COAST OF DELMARVA...THAT WILL BE MOVING SLOWLY NORTH
ALONG THE COAST. BY WED MRNG THE LOW WILL MOVE NORTH TO SE OF CAPE
COD...BY THIS TIME THE LOW WILL HAVE AN OCCLUDED FRONT WRAPPED
AROUND IT THAT EXTENDS INTO SOUTHERN MAINE. ITS ASSOCIATED UPPER
LOW WILL BE STACKED JUST WEST OF THE SFC LOW OVER NJ. BY WED
EVNG...THE GFS STACKS THE UPPER LOW OVER THE SFC LOW OVER CAPE
COD. THE ECMWF/GEM SHOW THE LOW ALONG THE COAST OF DELMARVA WITH
THE UPPER LOW REMAINING WEST OF THE SFC LOW. BY THURS MRNG THE
ECMWF CATCHES UP WITH THE GFS...MOVING THE CENTER TO A POSITION
SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND...THE GFS SHIFTS THE CENTER TO A SIMILAR
LOCATION...THE GEM REMAINS FURTHER SOUTH EAST OF DELMARVA. FROM
HERE THROUGH SAT AFTN...THE GFS/ECMWF MOVE THE CENTER ACROSS THE
GULF OF MAINE INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. BOTH KEEP MAINE UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF THE OCCLUDED FRONT THROUGH THE PERIOD. BY THE END
OF THE PERIOD...THE LOW WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA IN THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES...WRAP AROUND PRECIP WILL BE BROUGHT BACK INTO NRN AND
CNTRL MAINE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

LOADED THE SUPERBLEND...NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS IN THE COASTAL WATERS.
ADDED 15 PERCENT TO THE WINDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND...25 PERCENT
OVER WATER.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT MAINLY MVFR TO OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT
DUE TO CLOUDS AND RAIN/RAIN SHOWERS. SOUTH WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
SHIFT INTO THE WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS EAST
ACROSS THE REGION. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE EAST OF THE
COAST BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE
REGION SUNDAY WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND GENERALLY MVFR
CONDITIONS DURING SUNDAY.

SHORT TERM: CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR SUNDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN
VFR THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS MAY LOWER TO MVFR DOWNEAST ON
TUESDAY BUT REMAIN VFR ACROSS THE NORTH.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY.
LONG PERIOD SWELL FROM GONZALO WILL AFFECT THE WATERS BRINGING
ROUGH SEAS IN S TO SE SWELL THROUGH SUNDAY.

SHORT TERM: AN SCA WILL BE NEEDED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING
FOR GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS RIDGING BRIEFLY MOVES OVER
THE WATERS.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...NORTON
AVIATION...VJN/BLOOMER
MARINE...VJN/BLOOMER












000
FXUS61 KGYX 190159
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
959 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE TODAY. A STRONG NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL SET UP BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
LOW PRESSURE WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AND
WILL REDEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY NIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE WILL MEANDER OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
10 PM UPDATE: ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO PREVIOUS FCST. SHOWERS
HAVE COME TO AN END ACROSS THE FA EXCEPT IN THE MTNS WHERE A FEW
LGT SHWRS WERE NOTED.

645 PM UPDATE: DROPPED POPS TO NEAR NIL OVER SRN AREAS FOR THE
REST OF THE EVENING AS THE FIRST TROF HAS MOVED THROUGH WITH ALL
THE SHWRS NOW MOVING INTO ERN MAINE. DOWNSLOPING WINDS ARE
KICKING IN SO DOWNSLOPE AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY THE REST OF THE
EVENING. SOME LINGERING SHWRS IN THE MTNS STILL PSBL SO CHC POPS
THERE. TOWARD MORNING A SECONDARY S/WV AND THE PRIMARY COLD FRONT
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA WITH SOME SCT SHWRS PSBL. TEMPS WILL BE
GETTING COLD ALOFT TOWARD MORNING SO SOME HIGHER ELEVATIONS SHOULD
SEE ANY RAIN SHWRS CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS.

MINOR TWEAKS WERE MADE TO TEMPS BASED ON LATEST OBS DATA.

PREV DISC:
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON
SHIFTING OFFSHORE THIS EVENING. SOME MARGINAL INSTABILITY AHEAD OF
THE FRONT KICKING OFF SOME WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION BUT EXPECT
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA TO GET THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH JUST
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS.

VORT MAX ROUNDING THE THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY
PRODUCING MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND AND THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIFT THROUGH NORTHERN ZONES
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

ANOTHER WEAKER LOBE OF ENERGY WILL SWING THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND AFTER MIDNIGHT AND MAY PRODUCE SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN
ZONES AROUND DAYBREAK. LOW TEMPS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID 30S TO
LOWER 40S NORTH AND MID TO UPPER 40S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
BULK OF SUNDAY WILL WILL SEE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AS UPPER TROUGH
CROSSES THE AREA. AS MENTIONED ABOVE WILL SEE A CHANCE OF MORNING
SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES...DIMINISHING TO JUST A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. STRONG UPSLOPE FLOW WILL KEEP
SKIES CLOUDY IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE
DAY. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL RANGE THROUGH THE 40S NORTH AND LOWER TO
MID 50S SOUTH.

SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR SUNDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT. WILL SEE SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR OF THE
SEASON AS TEMPS DIP TO NEAR FREEZING DOWN TO THE COAST. COLDEST
AIR WILL BE FOUND IN NORTHWEST ZONES WHERE READINGS WILL SETTLE
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE LONG WAVE PATTERN
THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK. WE BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH A BRIEF RESPITE
FROM THE UNSETTLED WEATHER MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BY TO
OUR SOUTH. THE UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS BY TUESDAY...AS THE NEXT
IMPULSE DIVES SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND CARVES OUT AN
UPPER LOW OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. THIS LOW THEN MEANDERS
NORTH AND EAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND BEFORE BEING KICKED OUT INTO
THE MARITIMES BY EARLY NEXT WEEKEND. THE STEADIEST AND HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE SLOW-
MOVING COASTAL LOW. WHILE ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES ARE RELATIVELY
LOW THIS PORTION OF THE MONTH...THE PROLONGED ONSHORE FLOW AND
BUILDING SEAS WILL NOT PRECLUDE SPLASHOVER AND MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS IN THE NORTH
TONIGHT...OTHERWISE VFR. VFR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...

TUE NIGHT - THU...MVFR IN RAIN...WITH AREAS OF IFR IN RAIN AND
FOG.

WED...NE SFC WND GUSTS TO 30 KT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...CONTINUING SCA`S THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...

MON - TUE...SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND SEAS ARE POSSIBLE.

WED - THU...GALE FORCE WINDS ARE LIKELY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KGYX 190159
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
959 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE TODAY. A STRONG NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL SET UP BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
LOW PRESSURE WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AND
WILL REDEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY NIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE WILL MEANDER OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
10 PM UPDATE: ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO PREVIOUS FCST. SHOWERS
HAVE COME TO AN END ACROSS THE FA EXCEPT IN THE MTNS WHERE A FEW
LGT SHWRS WERE NOTED.

645 PM UPDATE: DROPPED POPS TO NEAR NIL OVER SRN AREAS FOR THE
REST OF THE EVENING AS THE FIRST TROF HAS MOVED THROUGH WITH ALL
THE SHWRS NOW MOVING INTO ERN MAINE. DOWNSLOPING WINDS ARE
KICKING IN SO DOWNSLOPE AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY THE REST OF THE
EVENING. SOME LINGERING SHWRS IN THE MTNS STILL PSBL SO CHC POPS
THERE. TOWARD MORNING A SECONDARY S/WV AND THE PRIMARY COLD FRONT
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA WITH SOME SCT SHWRS PSBL. TEMPS WILL BE
GETTING COLD ALOFT TOWARD MORNING SO SOME HIGHER ELEVATIONS SHOULD
SEE ANY RAIN SHWRS CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS.

MINOR TWEAKS WERE MADE TO TEMPS BASED ON LATEST OBS DATA.

PREV DISC:
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON
SHIFTING OFFSHORE THIS EVENING. SOME MARGINAL INSTABILITY AHEAD OF
THE FRONT KICKING OFF SOME WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION BUT EXPECT
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA TO GET THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH JUST
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS.

VORT MAX ROUNDING THE THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY
PRODUCING MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND AND THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIFT THROUGH NORTHERN ZONES
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

ANOTHER WEAKER LOBE OF ENERGY WILL SWING THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND AFTER MIDNIGHT AND MAY PRODUCE SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN
ZONES AROUND DAYBREAK. LOW TEMPS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID 30S TO
LOWER 40S NORTH AND MID TO UPPER 40S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
BULK OF SUNDAY WILL WILL SEE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AS UPPER TROUGH
CROSSES THE AREA. AS MENTIONED ABOVE WILL SEE A CHANCE OF MORNING
SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES...DIMINISHING TO JUST A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. STRONG UPSLOPE FLOW WILL KEEP
SKIES CLOUDY IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE
DAY. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL RANGE THROUGH THE 40S NORTH AND LOWER TO
MID 50S SOUTH.

SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR SUNDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT. WILL SEE SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR OF THE
SEASON AS TEMPS DIP TO NEAR FREEZING DOWN TO THE COAST. COLDEST
AIR WILL BE FOUND IN NORTHWEST ZONES WHERE READINGS WILL SETTLE
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE LONG WAVE PATTERN
THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK. WE BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH A BRIEF RESPITE
FROM THE UNSETTLED WEATHER MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BY TO
OUR SOUTH. THE UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS BY TUESDAY...AS THE NEXT
IMPULSE DIVES SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND CARVES OUT AN
UPPER LOW OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. THIS LOW THEN MEANDERS
NORTH AND EAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND BEFORE BEING KICKED OUT INTO
THE MARITIMES BY EARLY NEXT WEEKEND. THE STEADIEST AND HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE SLOW-
MOVING COASTAL LOW. WHILE ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES ARE RELATIVELY
LOW THIS PORTION OF THE MONTH...THE PROLONGED ONSHORE FLOW AND
BUILDING SEAS WILL NOT PRECLUDE SPLASHOVER AND MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS IN THE NORTH
TONIGHT...OTHERWISE VFR. VFR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...

TUE NIGHT - THU...MVFR IN RAIN...WITH AREAS OF IFR IN RAIN AND
FOG.

WED...NE SFC WND GUSTS TO 30 KT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...CONTINUING SCA`S THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...

MON - TUE...SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND SEAS ARE POSSIBLE.

WED - THU...GALE FORCE WINDS ARE LIKELY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KCAR 190157
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
957 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE SUNDAY. COLD HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE STATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
935 PM UPDATE: LATEST RADAR REF TRENDS INDICATE THAT WE CAN TAKE
THUNDER OUT OF THE FCST FOR THE REST OF THE NGT. CAN`T RULE OUT
A BRIEF HVY DOWNPOUR FOR A FEW NRN AND ERN LCTNS OVR THE NEXT HR
OR TWO...BUT FOR THE MOST PART THE HEAVIEST RNFL WITH THIS S/WV AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT HAS MOVED NE OF THE REGION. ADJUSTMENTS WERE
MADE AGAIN...MSLY UPWARDS OVR THE NE PTN OF THE REGION...TO THE
00-06Z RNFL TOTAL BASED ON RADAR STP ESTIMATES. OTHERWISE...FCST
HRLY TEMPS...DWPTS AND WINDS WERE ADJUSTED THRU THE OVRGNT BASED
ON LATEST OBS AND BIASES FROM THE PREV FCST. FCST OVRNGT LOWS FOR
ERLY SUN MORN REMAIN UNCHGD ATTM.

ORGNL DISC: AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
REALITY IS JUST A COLD FRONT AWAY. THAT COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY
CROSSING QUEBEC WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO
LOWER 40S THIS AFTERNOON.

THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT REACHING THE COAST BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE REGION TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY BRINGING RAIN TO
PORTIONS OF NEW YORK STATE AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AS OF LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS AREA OF RAIN WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN
MAINE THIS EVENING WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AND MORE SHOWERY CONDITIONS DOWN EAST. LOW
TEMPERATURES BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WILL FALL INTO THE MID 30S
ACROSS NORTHWEST AREAS AND LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS THE REST OF THE
REGION.

SUNDAY WILL BE A BLUSTERY AND MUCH COOLER DAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE REGION WILL KEEP SKIES
MOSTLY CLOUDY AND SCATTERED SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED. MODERATELY
STRONG COLD ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AND MID
TO UPPER 40S DOWNEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MARITIMES COMBINED WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING ONTO THE EAST COAST WILL MAINTAIN A CHILLY WESTERLY
BREEZE SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPS WILL FALL A FEW DEGREES BELOW FREEZING
IN MOST AREAS. MONDAY WILL BEGIN SUNNY AND COLD ACROSS THE
REGION. HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE MONDAY AFTERNOON FROM A LARGE
AND SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM WHICH WILL BEGIN DEVELOPING OVER THE
GREAT LAKES EARLY NEXT WEEK. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS THIS LOW SLIDES SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST. DEEP AMPLIFICATION OF THE JET STREAM WITH
STEEP RIDGING IN CENTRAL CANADA AND A TROUGH DIGGING TOWARD THE
EAST COAST WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LARGE AND SLOW
MOVING STORM SYSTEM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON TUESDAY. SOME
LIGHT RAIN MAY BEGIN TO STRAY INTO DOWNEAST AREAS LATE TUESDAY
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD THERE WILL BE A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE NORTH OF MAINE THAT WILL BE RETREATING TO THE NORTHEAST...A
LOW ALONG THE COAST OF DELMARVA...THAT WILL BE MOVING SLOWLY NORTH
ALONG THE COAST. BY WED MRNG THE LOW WILL MOVE NORTH TO SE OF CAPE
COD...BY THIS TIME THE LOW WILL HAVE AN OCCLUDED FRONT WRAPPED
AROUND IT THAT EXTENDS INTO SOUTHERN MAINE. ITS ASSOCIATED UPPER
LOW WILL BE STACKED JUST WEST OF THE SFC LOW OVER NJ. BY WED
EVNG...THE GFS STACKS THE UPPER LOW OVER THE SFC LOW OVER CAPE
COD. THE ECMWF/GEM SHOW THE LOW ALONG THE COAST OF DELMARVA WITH
THE UPPER LOW REMAINING WEST OF THE SFC LOW. BY THURS MRNG THE
ECMWF CATCHES UP WITH THE GFS...MOVING THE CENTER TO A POSITION
SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND...THE GFS SHIFTS THE CENTER TO A SIMILAR
LOCATION...THE GEM REMAINS FURTHER SOUTH EAST OF DELMARVA. FROM
HERE THROUGH SAT AFTN...THE GFS/ECMWF MOVE THE CENTER ACROSS THE
GULF OF MAINE INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. BOTH KEEP MAINE UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF THE OCCLUDED FRONT THROUGH THE PERIOD. BY THE END
OF THE PERIOD...THE LOW WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA IN THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES...WRAP AROUND PRECIP WILL BE BROUGHT BACK INTO NRN AND
CNTRL MAINE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

LOADED THE SUPERBLEND...NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS IN THE COASTAL WATERS.
ADDED 15 PERCENT TO THE WINDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND...25 PERCENT
OVER WATER.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT MAINLY MVFR TO OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT
DUE TO CLOUDS AND RAIN/RAIN SHOWERS. SOUTH WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
SHIFT INTO THE WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS EAST
ACROSS THE REGION. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE EAST OF THE
COAST BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE
REGION SUNDAY WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND GENERALLY MVFR
CONDITIONS DURING SUNDAY.

SHORT TERM: CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR SUNDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN
VFR THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS MAY LOWER TO MVFR DOWNEAST ON
TUESDAY BUT REMAIN VFR ACROSS THE NORTH.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY.
LONG PERIOD SWELL FROM GONZALO WILL AFFECT THE WATERS BRINGING
ROUGH SEAS IN S TO SE SWELL THROUGH SUNDAY.

SHORT TERM: AN SCA WILL BE NEEDED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING
FOR GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS RIDGING BRIEFLY MOVES OVER
THE WATERS.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...NORTON
AVIATION...VJN/BLOOMER
MARINE...VJN/BLOOMER









000
FXUS61 KCAR 190157
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
957 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE SUNDAY. COLD HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE STATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
935 PM UPDATE: LATEST RADAR REF TRENDS INDICATE THAT WE CAN TAKE
THUNDER OUT OF THE FCST FOR THE REST OF THE NGT. CAN`T RULE OUT
A BRIEF HVY DOWNPOUR FOR A FEW NRN AND ERN LCTNS OVR THE NEXT HR
OR TWO...BUT FOR THE MOST PART THE HEAVIEST RNFL WITH THIS S/WV AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT HAS MOVED NE OF THE REGION. ADJUSTMENTS WERE
MADE AGAIN...MSLY UPWARDS OVR THE NE PTN OF THE REGION...TO THE
00-06Z RNFL TOTAL BASED ON RADAR STP ESTIMATES. OTHERWISE...FCST
HRLY TEMPS...DWPTS AND WINDS WERE ADJUSTED THRU THE OVRGNT BASED
ON LATEST OBS AND BIASES FROM THE PREV FCST. FCST OVRNGT LOWS FOR
ERLY SUN MORN REMAIN UNCHGD ATTM.

ORGNL DISC: AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
REALITY IS JUST A COLD FRONT AWAY. THAT COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY
CROSSING QUEBEC WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO
LOWER 40S THIS AFTERNOON.

THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT REACHING THE COAST BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE REGION TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY BRINGING RAIN TO
PORTIONS OF NEW YORK STATE AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AS OF LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS AREA OF RAIN WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN
MAINE THIS EVENING WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AND MORE SHOWERY CONDITIONS DOWN EAST. LOW
TEMPERATURES BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WILL FALL INTO THE MID 30S
ACROSS NORTHWEST AREAS AND LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS THE REST OF THE
REGION.

SUNDAY WILL BE A BLUSTERY AND MUCH COOLER DAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE REGION WILL KEEP SKIES
MOSTLY CLOUDY AND SCATTERED SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED. MODERATELY
STRONG COLD ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AND MID
TO UPPER 40S DOWNEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MARITIMES COMBINED WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING ONTO THE EAST COAST WILL MAINTAIN A CHILLY WESTERLY
BREEZE SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPS WILL FALL A FEW DEGREES BELOW FREEZING
IN MOST AREAS. MONDAY WILL BEGIN SUNNY AND COLD ACROSS THE
REGION. HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE MONDAY AFTERNOON FROM A LARGE
AND SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM WHICH WILL BEGIN DEVELOPING OVER THE
GREAT LAKES EARLY NEXT WEEK. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS THIS LOW SLIDES SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST. DEEP AMPLIFICATION OF THE JET STREAM WITH
STEEP RIDGING IN CENTRAL CANADA AND A TROUGH DIGGING TOWARD THE
EAST COAST WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LARGE AND SLOW
MOVING STORM SYSTEM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON TUESDAY. SOME
LIGHT RAIN MAY BEGIN TO STRAY INTO DOWNEAST AREAS LATE TUESDAY
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD THERE WILL BE A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE NORTH OF MAINE THAT WILL BE RETREATING TO THE NORTHEAST...A
LOW ALONG THE COAST OF DELMARVA...THAT WILL BE MOVING SLOWLY NORTH
ALONG THE COAST. BY WED MRNG THE LOW WILL MOVE NORTH TO SE OF CAPE
COD...BY THIS TIME THE LOW WILL HAVE AN OCCLUDED FRONT WRAPPED
AROUND IT THAT EXTENDS INTO SOUTHERN MAINE. ITS ASSOCIATED UPPER
LOW WILL BE STACKED JUST WEST OF THE SFC LOW OVER NJ. BY WED
EVNG...THE GFS STACKS THE UPPER LOW OVER THE SFC LOW OVER CAPE
COD. THE ECMWF/GEM SHOW THE LOW ALONG THE COAST OF DELMARVA WITH
THE UPPER LOW REMAINING WEST OF THE SFC LOW. BY THURS MRNG THE
ECMWF CATCHES UP WITH THE GFS...MOVING THE CENTER TO A POSITION
SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND...THE GFS SHIFTS THE CENTER TO A SIMILAR
LOCATION...THE GEM REMAINS FURTHER SOUTH EAST OF DELMARVA. FROM
HERE THROUGH SAT AFTN...THE GFS/ECMWF MOVE THE CENTER ACROSS THE
GULF OF MAINE INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. BOTH KEEP MAINE UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF THE OCCLUDED FRONT THROUGH THE PERIOD. BY THE END
OF THE PERIOD...THE LOW WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA IN THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES...WRAP AROUND PRECIP WILL BE BROUGHT BACK INTO NRN AND
CNTRL MAINE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

LOADED THE SUPERBLEND...NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS IN THE COASTAL WATERS.
ADDED 15 PERCENT TO THE WINDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND...25 PERCENT
OVER WATER.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT MAINLY MVFR TO OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT
DUE TO CLOUDS AND RAIN/RAIN SHOWERS. SOUTH WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
SHIFT INTO THE WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS EAST
ACROSS THE REGION. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE EAST OF THE
COAST BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE
REGION SUNDAY WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND GENERALLY MVFR
CONDITIONS DURING SUNDAY.

SHORT TERM: CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR SUNDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN
VFR THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS MAY LOWER TO MVFR DOWNEAST ON
TUESDAY BUT REMAIN VFR ACROSS THE NORTH.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY.
LONG PERIOD SWELL FROM GONZALO WILL AFFECT THE WATERS BRINGING
ROUGH SEAS IN S TO SE SWELL THROUGH SUNDAY.

SHORT TERM: AN SCA WILL BE NEEDED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING
FOR GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS RIDGING BRIEFLY MOVES OVER
THE WATERS.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...NORTON
AVIATION...VJN/BLOOMER
MARINE...VJN/BLOOMER










000
FXUS61 KCAR 182339
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
739 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE SUNDAY. COLD HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE STATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
745 PM UPDATE: BASED ON PERSISTENCE OF STRONGER RADAR REF INTO NE
PTNS OF THE FA...WE ADDED ISOLD TSTMS TO ERN AROOSTOOK COUNTY AND
ADJUSTED FCST QPF FOR THE 00-06Z TM FRAME BASED ON THESE TRENDS.

ORGNL DISC: AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
REALITY IS JUST A COLD FRONT AWAY. THAT COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY
CROSSING QUEBEC WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO
LOWER 40S THIS AFTERNOON.

THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT REACHING THE COAST BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE REGION TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY BRINGING RAIN TO
PORTIONS OF NEW YORK STATE AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AS OF LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS AREA OF RAIN WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN
MAINE THIS EVENING WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AND MORE SHOWERY CONDITIONS DOWN EAST. LOW
TEMPERATURES BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WILL FALL INTO THE MID 30S
ACROSS NORTHWEST AREAS AND LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS THE REST OF THE
REGION.

SUNDAY WILL BE A BLUSTERY AND MUCH COOLER DAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE REGION WILL KEEP SKIES
MOSTLY CLOUDY AND SCATTERED SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED. MODERATELY
STRONG COLD ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AND MID
TO UPPER 40S DOWNEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MARITIMES COMBINED WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING ONTO THE EAST COAST WILL MAINTAIN A CHILLY WESTERLY
BREEZE SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPS WILL FALL A FEW DEGREES BELOW FREEZING
IN MOST AREAS. MONDAY WILL BEGIN SUNNY AND COLD ACROSS THE
REGION. HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE MONDAY AFTERNOON FROM A LARGE
AND SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM WHICH WILL BEGIN DEVELOPING OVER THE
GREAT LAKES EARLY NEXT WEEK. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS THIS LOW SLIDES SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST. DEEP AMPLIFICATION OF THE JET STREAM WITH
STEEP RIDGING IN CENTRAL CANADA AND A TROUGH DIGGING TOWARD THE
EAST COAST WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LARGE AND SLOW
MOVING STORM SYSTEM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON TUESDAY. SOME
LIGHT RAIN MAY BEGIN TO STRAY INTO DOWNEAST AREAS LATE TUESDAY
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD THERE WILL BE A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE NORTH OF MAINE THAT WILL BE RETREATING TO THE NORTHEAST...A
LOW ALONG THE COAST OF DELMARVA...THAT WILL BE MOVING SLOWLY NORTH
ALONG THE COAST. BY WED MRNG THE LOW WILL MOVE NORTH TO SE OF CAPE
COD...BY THIS TIME THE LOW WILL HAVE AN OCCLUDED FRONT WRAPPED
AROUND IT THAT EXTENDS INTO SOUTHERN MAINE. ITS ASSOCIATED UPPER
LOW WILL BE STACKED JUST WEST OF THE SFC LOW OVER NJ. BY WED
EVNG...THE GFS STACKS THE UPPER LOW OVER THE SFC LOW OVER CAPE
COD. THE ECMWF/GEM SHOW THE LOW ALONG THE COAST OF DELMARVA WITH
THE UPPER LOW REMAINING WEST OF THE SFC LOW. BY THURS MRNG THE
ECMWF CATCHES UP WITH THE GFS...MOVING THE CENTER TO A POSITION
SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND...THE GFS SHIFTS THE CENTER TO A SIMILAR
LOCATION...THE GEM REMAINS FURTHER SOUTH EAST OF DELMARVA. FROM
HERE THROUGH SAT AFTN...THE GFS/ECMWF MOVE THE CENTER ACROSS THE
GULF OF MAINE INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. BOTH KEEP MAINE UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF THE OCCLUDED FRONT THROUGH THE PERIOD. BY THE END
OF THE PERIOD...THE LOW WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA IN THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES...WRAP AROUND PRECIP WILL BE BROUGHT BACK INTO NRN AND
CNTRL MAINE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

LOADED THE SUPERBLEND...NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS IN THE COASTAL WATERS.
ADDED 15 PERCENT TO THE WINDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND...25 PERCENT
OVER WATER.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT MAINLY MVFR TO OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT
DUE TO CLOUDS AND RAIN/RAIN SHOWERS. SOUTH WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
SHIFT INTO THE WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS EAST
ACROSS THE REGION. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE EAST OF THE
COAST BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE
REGION SUNDAY WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND GENERALLY MVFR
CONDITIONS DURING SUNDAY.

SHORT TERM: CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR SUNDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN
VFR THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS MAY LOWER TO MVFR DOWNEAST ON
TUESDAY BUT REMAIN VFR ACROSS THE NORTH.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY.
LONG PERIOD SWELL FROM GONZALO WILL AFFECT THE WATERS BRINGING
ROUGH SEAS IN S TO SE SWELL THROUGH SUNDAY.

SHORT TERM: AN SCA WILL BE NEEDED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING
FOR GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS RIDGING BRIEFLY MOVES OVER
THE WATERS.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...NORTON
AVIATION...VJN/BLOOMER
MARINE...VJN/BLOOMER







000
FXUS61 KGYX 182258
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
658 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE TODAY. A STRONG NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL SET UP BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
LOW PRESSURE WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AND
WILL REDEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY NIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE WILL MEANDER OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
645 PM UPDATE: DROPPED POPS TO NEAR NIL OVER SRN AREAS FOR THE
REST OF THE EVENING AS THE FIRST TROF HAS MOVED THROUGH WITH ALL
THE SHWRS NOW MOVING INTO ERN MAINE. DOWNSLOPING WINDS ARE
KICKING IN SO DOWNSLOPE AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY THE REST OF THE
EVENING. SOME LINGERING SHWRS IN THE MTNS STILL PSBL SO CHC POPS
THERE. TOWARD MORNING A SECONDARY S/WV AND THE PRIMARY COLD FRONT
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA WITH SOME SCT SHWRS PSBL. TEMPS WILL BE
GETTING COLD ALOFT TOWARD MORNING SO SOME HIGHER ELEVATIONS SHOULD
SEE ANY RAIN SHWRS CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS.

MINOR TWEAKS WERE MADE TO TEMPS BASED ON LATEST OBS DATA.

PREV DISC:
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON
SHIFTING OFFSHORE THIS EVENING. SOME MARGINAL INSTABILITY AHEAD OF
THE FRONT KICKING OFF SOME WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION BUT EXPECT
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA TO GET THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH JUST
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS.

VORT MAX ROUNDING THE THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY
PRODUCING MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND AND THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIFT THROUGH NORTHERN ZONES
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

ANOTHER WEAKER LOBE OF ENERGY WILL SWING THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND AFTER MIDNIGHT AND MAY PRODUCE SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN
ZONES AROUND DAYBREAK. LOW TEMPS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID 30S TO
LOWER 40S NORTH AND MID TO UPPER 40S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
BULK OF SUNDAY WILL WILL SEE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AS UPPER TROUGH
CROSSES THE AREA. AS MENTIONED ABOVE WILL SEE A CHANCE OF MORNING
SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES...DIMINISHING TO JUST A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. STRONG UPSLOPE FLOW WILL KEEP
SKIES CLOUDY IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE
DAY. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL RANGE THROUGH THE 40S NORTH AND LOWER TO
MID 50S SOUTH.

SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR SUNDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT. WILL SEE SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR OF THE
SEASON AS TEMPS DIP TO NEAR FREEZING DOWN TO THE COAST. COLDEST
AIR WILL BE FOUND IN NORTHWEST ZONES WHERE READINGS WILL SETTLE
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE LONG WAVE PATTERN
THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK. WE BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH A BRIEF RESPITE
FROM THE UNSETTLED WEATHER MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BY TO
OUR SOUTH. THE UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS BY TUESDAY...AS THE NEXT
IMPULSE DIVES SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND CARVES OUT AN
UPPER LOW OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. THIS LOW THEN MEANDERS
NORTH AND EAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND BEFORE BEING KICKED OUT INTO
THE MARITIMES BY EARLY NEXT WEEKEND. THE STEADIEST AND HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE SLOW-
MOVING COASTAL LOW. WHILE ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES ARE RELATIVELY
LOW THIS PORTION OF THE MONTH...THE PROLONGED ONSHORE FLOW AND
BUILDING SEAS WILL NOT PRECLUDE SPLASHOVER AND MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS IN THE NORTH
TONIGHT...OTHERWISE VFR. VFR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...

TUE NIGHT - THU...MVFR IN RAIN...WITH AREAS OF IFR IN RAIN AND
FOG.

WED...NE SFC WND GUSTS TO 30 KT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...CONTINUING SCA`S THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...

MON - TUE...SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND SEAS ARE POSSIBLE.

WED - THU...GALE FORCE WINDS ARE LIKELY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KCAR 182216
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
616 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE SUNDAY. COLD HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE STATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
545 PM UPDATE: LATEST RADAR REF IMAGERY SHOWS A FEW TSTMS OVR
CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA MAINLY JUST NW TO SW OF KMLT...MOVG NE AT
25 MPH. THE TREND OF THESE STORMS SHOULD BE TO WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE
TO SHWRS OVR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HRS AS THE SFC COMPONENT OF CAPE
FALLS TO ZERO. ELEVATED CAPE COULD KEEP SOME CNVCTN RNFL RATES
GOING FOR ANOTHER COUPLE OF HRS...BUT THE TREND OVRNGT SHOULD BE
FOR MSLY LGT TO MOD OVRRNG RNFL TO CONT AFFECTING THE NRN TWO
THIRDS OF THE FA. HRLY POPS AND TEMPS WERE MODIFIED INTO THE OVRNGT
BASED ON LATEST OBSVD TRENDS.

ORGNL DISC: AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
REALITY IS JUST A COLD FRONT AWAY. THAT COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY
CROSSING QUEBEC WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO
LOWER 40S THIS AFTERNOON.

THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT REACHING THE COAST BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE REGION TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY BRINGING RAIN TO
PORTIONS OF NEW YORK STATE AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AS OF LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS AREA OF RAIN WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN
MAINE THIS EVENING WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AND MORE SHOWERY CONDITIONS DOWN EAST. LOW
TEMPERATURES BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WILL FALL INTO THE MID 30S
ACROSS NORTHWEST AREAS AND LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS THE REST OF THE
REGION.

SUNDAY WILL BE A BLUSTERY AND MUCH COOLER DAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE REGION WILL KEEP SKIES
MOSTLY CLOUDY AND SCATTERED SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED. MODERATELY
STRONG COLD ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AND MID
TO UPPER 40S DOWNEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MARITIMES COMBINED WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING ONTO THE EAST COAST WILL MAINTAIN A CHILLY WESTERLY
BREEZE SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPS WILL FALL A FEW DEGREES BELOW FREEZING
IN MOST AREAS. MONDAY WILL BEGIN SUNNY AND COLD ACROSS THE
REGION. HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE MONDAY AFTERNOON FROM A LARGE
AND SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM WHICH WILL BEGIN DEVELOPING OVER THE
GREAT LAKES EARLY NEXT WEEK. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS THIS LOW SLIDES SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST. DEEP AMPLIFICATION OF THE JET STREAM WITH
STEEP RIDGING IN CENTRAL CANADA AND A TROUGH DIGGING TOWARD THE
EAST COAST WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LARGE AND SLOW
MOVING STORM SYSTEM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON TUESDAY. SOME
LIGHT RAIN MAY BEGIN TO STRAY INTO DOWNEAST AREAS LATE TUESDAY
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD THERE WILL BE A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE NORTH OF MAINE THAT WILL BE RETREATING TO THE NORTHEAST...A
LOW ALONG THE COAST OF DELMARVA...THAT WILL BE MOVING SLOWLY NORTH
ALONG THE COAST. BY WED MRNG THE LOW WILL MOVE NORTH TO SE OF CAPE
COD...BY THIS TIME THE LOW WILL HAVE AN OCCLUDED FRONT WRAPPED
AROUND IT THAT EXTENDS INTO SOUTHERN MAINE. ITS ASSOCIATED UPPER
LOW WILL BE STACKED JUST WEST OF THE SFC LOW OVER NJ. BY WED
EVNG...THE GFS STACKS THE UPPER LOW OVER THE SFC LOW OVER CAPE
COD. THE ECMWF/GEM SHOW THE LOW ALONG THE COAST OF DELMARVA WITH
THE UPPER LOW REMAINING WEST OF THE SFC LOW. BY THURS MRNG THE
ECMWF CATCHES UP WITH THE GFS...MOVING THE CENTER TO A POSITION
SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND...THE GFS SHIFTS THE CENTER TO A SIMILAR
LOCATION...THE GEM REMAINS FURTHER SOUTH EAST OF DELMARVA. FROM
HERE THROUGH SAT AFTN...THE GFS/ECMWF MOVE THE CENTER ACROSS THE
GULF OF MAINE INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. BOTH KEEP MAINE UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF THE OCCLUDED FRONT THROUGH THE PERIOD. BY THE END
OF THE PERIOD...THE LOW WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA IN THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES...WRAP AROUND PRECIP WILL BE BROUGHT BACK INTO NRN AND
CNTRL MAINE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

LOADED THE SUPERBLEND...NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS IN THE COASTAL WATERS.
ADDED 15 PERCENT TO THE WINDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND...25 PERCENT
OVER WATER.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT MAINLY MVFR TO OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT
DUE TO CLOUDS AND RAIN/RAIN SHOWERS. SOUTH WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
SHIFT INTO THE WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS EAST
ACROSS THE REGION. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE EAST OF THE
COAST BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE
REGION SUNDAY WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND GENERALLY MVFR
CONDITIONS DURING SUNDAY.

SHORT TERM: CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR SUNDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN
VFR THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS MAY LOWER TO MVFR DOWNEAST ON
TUESDAY BUT REMAIN VFR ACROSS THE NORTH.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY.
LONG PERIOD SWELL FROM GONZALO WILL AFFECT THE WATERS BRINGING
ROUGH SEAS IN S TO SE SWELL THROUGH SUNDAY.

SHORT TERM: AN SCA WILL BE NEEDED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING
FOR GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS RIDGING BRIEFLY MOVES OVER
THE WATERS.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...NORTON
AVIATION...VJN/BLOOMER
MARINE...VJN/BLOOMER






000
FXUS61 KCAR 182216
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
616 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE SUNDAY. COLD HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE STATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
545 PM UPDATE: LATEST RADAR REF IMAGERY SHOWS A FEW TSTMS OVR
CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA MAINLY JUST NW TO SW OF KMLT...MOVG NE AT
25 MPH. THE TREND OF THESE STORMS SHOULD BE TO WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE
TO SHWRS OVR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HRS AS THE SFC COMPONENT OF CAPE
FALLS TO ZERO. ELEVATED CAPE COULD KEEP SOME CNVCTN RNFL RATES
GOING FOR ANOTHER COUPLE OF HRS...BUT THE TREND OVRNGT SHOULD BE
FOR MSLY LGT TO MOD OVRRNG RNFL TO CONT AFFECTING THE NRN TWO
THIRDS OF THE FA. HRLY POPS AND TEMPS WERE MODIFIED INTO THE OVRNGT
BASED ON LATEST OBSVD TRENDS.

ORGNL DISC: AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
REALITY IS JUST A COLD FRONT AWAY. THAT COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY
CROSSING QUEBEC WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO
LOWER 40S THIS AFTERNOON.

THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT REACHING THE COAST BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE REGION TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY BRINGING RAIN TO
PORTIONS OF NEW YORK STATE AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AS OF LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS AREA OF RAIN WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN
MAINE THIS EVENING WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AND MORE SHOWERY CONDITIONS DOWN EAST. LOW
TEMPERATURES BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WILL FALL INTO THE MID 30S
ACROSS NORTHWEST AREAS AND LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS THE REST OF THE
REGION.

SUNDAY WILL BE A BLUSTERY AND MUCH COOLER DAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE REGION WILL KEEP SKIES
MOSTLY CLOUDY AND SCATTERED SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED. MODERATELY
STRONG COLD ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AND MID
TO UPPER 40S DOWNEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MARITIMES COMBINED WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING ONTO THE EAST COAST WILL MAINTAIN A CHILLY WESTERLY
BREEZE SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPS WILL FALL A FEW DEGREES BELOW FREEZING
IN MOST AREAS. MONDAY WILL BEGIN SUNNY AND COLD ACROSS THE
REGION. HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE MONDAY AFTERNOON FROM A LARGE
AND SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM WHICH WILL BEGIN DEVELOPING OVER THE
GREAT LAKES EARLY NEXT WEEK. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS THIS LOW SLIDES SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST. DEEP AMPLIFICATION OF THE JET STREAM WITH
STEEP RIDGING IN CENTRAL CANADA AND A TROUGH DIGGING TOWARD THE
EAST COAST WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LARGE AND SLOW
MOVING STORM SYSTEM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON TUESDAY. SOME
LIGHT RAIN MAY BEGIN TO STRAY INTO DOWNEAST AREAS LATE TUESDAY
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD THERE WILL BE A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE NORTH OF MAINE THAT WILL BE RETREATING TO THE NORTHEAST...A
LOW ALONG THE COAST OF DELMARVA...THAT WILL BE MOVING SLOWLY NORTH
ALONG THE COAST. BY WED MRNG THE LOW WILL MOVE NORTH TO SE OF CAPE
COD...BY THIS TIME THE LOW WILL HAVE AN OCCLUDED FRONT WRAPPED
AROUND IT THAT EXTENDS INTO SOUTHERN MAINE. ITS ASSOCIATED UPPER
LOW WILL BE STACKED JUST WEST OF THE SFC LOW OVER NJ. BY WED
EVNG...THE GFS STACKS THE UPPER LOW OVER THE SFC LOW OVER CAPE
COD. THE ECMWF/GEM SHOW THE LOW ALONG THE COAST OF DELMARVA WITH
THE UPPER LOW REMAINING WEST OF THE SFC LOW. BY THURS MRNG THE
ECMWF CATCHES UP WITH THE GFS...MOVING THE CENTER TO A POSITION
SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND...THE GFS SHIFTS THE CENTER TO A SIMILAR
LOCATION...THE GEM REMAINS FURTHER SOUTH EAST OF DELMARVA. FROM
HERE THROUGH SAT AFTN...THE GFS/ECMWF MOVE THE CENTER ACROSS THE
GULF OF MAINE INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. BOTH KEEP MAINE UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF THE OCCLUDED FRONT THROUGH THE PERIOD. BY THE END
OF THE PERIOD...THE LOW WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA IN THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES...WRAP AROUND PRECIP WILL BE BROUGHT BACK INTO NRN AND
CNTRL MAINE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

LOADED THE SUPERBLEND...NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS IN THE COASTAL WATERS.
ADDED 15 PERCENT TO THE WINDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND...25 PERCENT
OVER WATER.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT MAINLY MVFR TO OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT
DUE TO CLOUDS AND RAIN/RAIN SHOWERS. SOUTH WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
SHIFT INTO THE WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS EAST
ACROSS THE REGION. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE EAST OF THE
COAST BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE
REGION SUNDAY WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND GENERALLY MVFR
CONDITIONS DURING SUNDAY.

SHORT TERM: CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR SUNDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN
VFR THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS MAY LOWER TO MVFR DOWNEAST ON
TUESDAY BUT REMAIN VFR ACROSS THE NORTH.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY.
LONG PERIOD SWELL FROM GONZALO WILL AFFECT THE WATERS BRINGING
ROUGH SEAS IN S TO SE SWELL THROUGH SUNDAY.

SHORT TERM: AN SCA WILL BE NEEDED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING
FOR GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS RIDGING BRIEFLY MOVES OVER
THE WATERS.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...NORTON
AVIATION...VJN/BLOOMER
MARINE...VJN/BLOOMER






000
FXUS61 KCAR 182216
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
616 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE SUNDAY. COLD HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE STATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
545 PM UPDATE: LATEST RADAR REF IMAGERY SHOWS A FEW TSTMS OVR
CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA MAINLY JUST NW TO SW OF KMLT...MOVG NE AT
25 MPH. THE TREND OF THESE STORMS SHOULD BE TO WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE
TO SHWRS OVR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HRS AS THE SFC COMPONENT OF CAPE
FALLS TO ZERO. ELEVATED CAPE COULD KEEP SOME CNVCTN RNFL RATES
GOING FOR ANOTHER COUPLE OF HRS...BUT THE TREND OVRNGT SHOULD BE
FOR MSLY LGT TO MOD OVRRNG RNFL TO CONT AFFECTING THE NRN TWO
THIRDS OF THE FA. HRLY POPS AND TEMPS WERE MODIFIED INTO THE OVRNGT
BASED ON LATEST OBSVD TRENDS.

ORGNL DISC: AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
REALITY IS JUST A COLD FRONT AWAY. THAT COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY
CROSSING QUEBEC WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO
LOWER 40S THIS AFTERNOON.

THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT REACHING THE COAST BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE REGION TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY BRINGING RAIN TO
PORTIONS OF NEW YORK STATE AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AS OF LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS AREA OF RAIN WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN
MAINE THIS EVENING WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AND MORE SHOWERY CONDITIONS DOWN EAST. LOW
TEMPERATURES BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WILL FALL INTO THE MID 30S
ACROSS NORTHWEST AREAS AND LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS THE REST OF THE
REGION.

SUNDAY WILL BE A BLUSTERY AND MUCH COOLER DAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE REGION WILL KEEP SKIES
MOSTLY CLOUDY AND SCATTERED SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED. MODERATELY
STRONG COLD ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AND MID
TO UPPER 40S DOWNEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MARITIMES COMBINED WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING ONTO THE EAST COAST WILL MAINTAIN A CHILLY WESTERLY
BREEZE SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPS WILL FALL A FEW DEGREES BELOW FREEZING
IN MOST AREAS. MONDAY WILL BEGIN SUNNY AND COLD ACROSS THE
REGION. HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE MONDAY AFTERNOON FROM A LARGE
AND SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM WHICH WILL BEGIN DEVELOPING OVER THE
GREAT LAKES EARLY NEXT WEEK. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS THIS LOW SLIDES SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST. DEEP AMPLIFICATION OF THE JET STREAM WITH
STEEP RIDGING IN CENTRAL CANADA AND A TROUGH DIGGING TOWARD THE
EAST COAST WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LARGE AND SLOW
MOVING STORM SYSTEM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON TUESDAY. SOME
LIGHT RAIN MAY BEGIN TO STRAY INTO DOWNEAST AREAS LATE TUESDAY
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD THERE WILL BE A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE NORTH OF MAINE THAT WILL BE RETREATING TO THE NORTHEAST...A
LOW ALONG THE COAST OF DELMARVA...THAT WILL BE MOVING SLOWLY NORTH
ALONG THE COAST. BY WED MRNG THE LOW WILL MOVE NORTH TO SE OF CAPE
COD...BY THIS TIME THE LOW WILL HAVE AN OCCLUDED FRONT WRAPPED
AROUND IT THAT EXTENDS INTO SOUTHERN MAINE. ITS ASSOCIATED UPPER
LOW WILL BE STACKED JUST WEST OF THE SFC LOW OVER NJ. BY WED
EVNG...THE GFS STACKS THE UPPER LOW OVER THE SFC LOW OVER CAPE
COD. THE ECMWF/GEM SHOW THE LOW ALONG THE COAST OF DELMARVA WITH
THE UPPER LOW REMAINING WEST OF THE SFC LOW. BY THURS MRNG THE
ECMWF CATCHES UP WITH THE GFS...MOVING THE CENTER TO A POSITION
SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND...THE GFS SHIFTS THE CENTER TO A SIMILAR
LOCATION...THE GEM REMAINS FURTHER SOUTH EAST OF DELMARVA. FROM
HERE THROUGH SAT AFTN...THE GFS/ECMWF MOVE THE CENTER ACROSS THE
GULF OF MAINE INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. BOTH KEEP MAINE UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF THE OCCLUDED FRONT THROUGH THE PERIOD. BY THE END
OF THE PERIOD...THE LOW WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA IN THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES...WRAP AROUND PRECIP WILL BE BROUGHT BACK INTO NRN AND
CNTRL MAINE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

LOADED THE SUPERBLEND...NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS IN THE COASTAL WATERS.
ADDED 15 PERCENT TO THE WINDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND...25 PERCENT
OVER WATER.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT MAINLY MVFR TO OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT
DUE TO CLOUDS AND RAIN/RAIN SHOWERS. SOUTH WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
SHIFT INTO THE WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS EAST
ACROSS THE REGION. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE EAST OF THE
COAST BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE
REGION SUNDAY WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND GENERALLY MVFR
CONDITIONS DURING SUNDAY.

SHORT TERM: CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR SUNDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN
VFR THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS MAY LOWER TO MVFR DOWNEAST ON
TUESDAY BUT REMAIN VFR ACROSS THE NORTH.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY.
LONG PERIOD SWELL FROM GONZALO WILL AFFECT THE WATERS BRINGING
ROUGH SEAS IN S TO SE SWELL THROUGH SUNDAY.

SHORT TERM: AN SCA WILL BE NEEDED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING
FOR GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS RIDGING BRIEFLY MOVES OVER
THE WATERS.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...NORTON
AVIATION...VJN/BLOOMER
MARINE...VJN/BLOOMER






000
FXUS61 KCAR 182216
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
616 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE SUNDAY. COLD HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE STATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
545 PM UPDATE: LATEST RADAR REF IMAGERY SHOWS A FEW TSTMS OVR
CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA MAINLY JUST NW TO SW OF KMLT...MOVG NE AT
25 MPH. THE TREND OF THESE STORMS SHOULD BE TO WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE
TO SHWRS OVR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HRS AS THE SFC COMPONENT OF CAPE
FALLS TO ZERO. ELEVATED CAPE COULD KEEP SOME CNVCTN RNFL RATES
GOING FOR ANOTHER COUPLE OF HRS...BUT THE TREND OVRNGT SHOULD BE
FOR MSLY LGT TO MOD OVRRNG RNFL TO CONT AFFECTING THE NRN TWO
THIRDS OF THE FA. HRLY POPS AND TEMPS WERE MODIFIED INTO THE OVRNGT
BASED ON LATEST OBSVD TRENDS.

ORGNL DISC: AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
REALITY IS JUST A COLD FRONT AWAY. THAT COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY
CROSSING QUEBEC WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO
LOWER 40S THIS AFTERNOON.

THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT REACHING THE COAST BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE REGION TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY BRINGING RAIN TO
PORTIONS OF NEW YORK STATE AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AS OF LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS AREA OF RAIN WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN
MAINE THIS EVENING WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AND MORE SHOWERY CONDITIONS DOWN EAST. LOW
TEMPERATURES BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WILL FALL INTO THE MID 30S
ACROSS NORTHWEST AREAS AND LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS THE REST OF THE
REGION.

SUNDAY WILL BE A BLUSTERY AND MUCH COOLER DAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE REGION WILL KEEP SKIES
MOSTLY CLOUDY AND SCATTERED SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED. MODERATELY
STRONG COLD ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AND MID
TO UPPER 40S DOWNEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MARITIMES COMBINED WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING ONTO THE EAST COAST WILL MAINTAIN A CHILLY WESTERLY
BREEZE SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPS WILL FALL A FEW DEGREES BELOW FREEZING
IN MOST AREAS. MONDAY WILL BEGIN SUNNY AND COLD ACROSS THE
REGION. HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE MONDAY AFTERNOON FROM A LARGE
AND SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM WHICH WILL BEGIN DEVELOPING OVER THE
GREAT LAKES EARLY NEXT WEEK. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS THIS LOW SLIDES SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST. DEEP AMPLIFICATION OF THE JET STREAM WITH
STEEP RIDGING IN CENTRAL CANADA AND A TROUGH DIGGING TOWARD THE
EAST COAST WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LARGE AND SLOW
MOVING STORM SYSTEM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON TUESDAY. SOME
LIGHT RAIN MAY BEGIN TO STRAY INTO DOWNEAST AREAS LATE TUESDAY
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD THERE WILL BE A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE NORTH OF MAINE THAT WILL BE RETREATING TO THE NORTHEAST...A
LOW ALONG THE COAST OF DELMARVA...THAT WILL BE MOVING SLOWLY NORTH
ALONG THE COAST. BY WED MRNG THE LOW WILL MOVE NORTH TO SE OF CAPE
COD...BY THIS TIME THE LOW WILL HAVE AN OCCLUDED FRONT WRAPPED
AROUND IT THAT EXTENDS INTO SOUTHERN MAINE. ITS ASSOCIATED UPPER
LOW WILL BE STACKED JUST WEST OF THE SFC LOW OVER NJ. BY WED
EVNG...THE GFS STACKS THE UPPER LOW OVER THE SFC LOW OVER CAPE
COD. THE ECMWF/GEM SHOW THE LOW ALONG THE COAST OF DELMARVA WITH
THE UPPER LOW REMAINING WEST OF THE SFC LOW. BY THURS MRNG THE
ECMWF CATCHES UP WITH THE GFS...MOVING THE CENTER TO A POSITION
SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND...THE GFS SHIFTS THE CENTER TO A SIMILAR
LOCATION...THE GEM REMAINS FURTHER SOUTH EAST OF DELMARVA. FROM
HERE THROUGH SAT AFTN...THE GFS/ECMWF MOVE THE CENTER ACROSS THE
GULF OF MAINE INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. BOTH KEEP MAINE UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF THE OCCLUDED FRONT THROUGH THE PERIOD. BY THE END
OF THE PERIOD...THE LOW WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA IN THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES...WRAP AROUND PRECIP WILL BE BROUGHT BACK INTO NRN AND
CNTRL MAINE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

LOADED THE SUPERBLEND...NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS IN THE COASTAL WATERS.
ADDED 15 PERCENT TO THE WINDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND...25 PERCENT
OVER WATER.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT MAINLY MVFR TO OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT
DUE TO CLOUDS AND RAIN/RAIN SHOWERS. SOUTH WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
SHIFT INTO THE WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS EAST
ACROSS THE REGION. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE EAST OF THE
COAST BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE
REGION SUNDAY WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND GENERALLY MVFR
CONDITIONS DURING SUNDAY.

SHORT TERM: CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR SUNDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN
VFR THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS MAY LOWER TO MVFR DOWNEAST ON
TUESDAY BUT REMAIN VFR ACROSS THE NORTH.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY.
LONG PERIOD SWELL FROM GONZALO WILL AFFECT THE WATERS BRINGING
ROUGH SEAS IN S TO SE SWELL THROUGH SUNDAY.

SHORT TERM: AN SCA WILL BE NEEDED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING
FOR GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS RIDGING BRIEFLY MOVES OVER
THE WATERS.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...NORTON
AVIATION...VJN/BLOOMER
MARINE...VJN/BLOOMER






000
FXUS61 KCAR 181913
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
313 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE SUNDAY. COLD HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE STATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES REALITY IS JUST A
COLD FRONT AWAY. THAT COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY CROSSING QUEBEC WHERE
TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S THIS AFTERNOON.

THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT REACHING THE COAST BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE REGION TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY BRINGING RAIN TO
PORTIONS OF NEW YORK STATE AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AS OF LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS AREA OF RAIN WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN
MAINE THIS EVENING WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AND MORE SHOWERY CONDITIONS DOWN EAST. LOW
TEMPERATURES BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WILL FALL INTO THE MID 30S
ACROSS NORTHWEST AREAS AND LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS THE REST OF THE
REGION.

SUNDAY WILL BE A BLUSTERY AND MUCH COOLER DAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE REGION WILL KEEP SKIES
MOSTLY CLOUDY AND SCATTERED SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED. MODERATELY
STRONG COLD ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AND MID
TO UPPER 40S DOWNEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MARITIMES COMBINED WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING ONTO THE EAST COAST WILL MAINTAIN A CHILLY WESTERLY
BREEZE SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPS WILL FALL A FEW DEGREES BELOW FREEZING
IN MOST AREAS. MONDAY WILL BEGIN SUNNY AND COLD ACROSS THE
REGION. HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE MONDAY AFTERNOON FROM A LARGE
AND SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM WHICH WILL BEGIN DEVELOPING OVER THE
GREAT LAKES EARLY NEXT WEEK. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS THIS LOW SLIDES SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST. DEEP AMPLIFICATION OF THE JET STREAM WITH
STEEP RIDGING IN CENTRAL CANADA AND A TROUGH DIGGING TOWARD THE
EAST COAST WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LARGE AND SLOW
MOVING STORM SYSTEM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON TUESDAY. SOME
LIGHT RAIN MAY BEGIN TO STRAY INTO DOWNEAST AREAS LATE TUESDAY
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD THERE WILL BE A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE NORTH OF MAINE THAT WILL BE RETREATING TO THE NORTHEAST...A
LOW ALONG THE COAST OF DELMARVA...THAT WILL BE MOVING SLOWLY NORTH
ALONG THE COAST. BY WED MRNG THE LOW WILL MOVE NORTH TO SE OF CAPE
COD...BY THIS TIME THE LOW WILL HAVE AN OCCLUDED FRONT WRAPPED
AROUND IT THAT EXTENDS INTO SOUTHERN MAINE. ITS ASSOCIATED UPPER
LOW WILL BE STACKED JUST WEST OF THE SFC LOW OVER NJ. BY WED
EVNG...THE GFS STACKS THE UPPER LOW OVER THE SFC LOW OVER CAPE
COD. THE ECMWF/GEM SHOW THE LOW ALONG THE COAST OF DELMARVA WITH
THE UPPER LOW REMAINING WEST OF THE SFC LOW. BY THURS MRNG THE
ECMWF CATCHES UP WITH THE GFS...MOVING THE CENTER TO A POSITION
SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND...THE GFS SHIFTS THE CENTER TO A SIMILAR
LOCATION...THE GEM REMAINS FURTHER SOUTH EAST OF DELMARVA. FROM
HERE THROUGH SAT AFTN...THE GFS/ECMWF MOVE THE CENTER ACROSS THE
GULF OF MAINE INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. BOTH KEEP MAINE UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF THE OCCLUDED FRONT THROUGH THE PERIOD. BY THE END
OF THE PERIOD...THE LOW WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA IN THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES...WRAP AROUND PRECIP WILL BE BROUGHT BACK INTO NRN AND
CNTRL MAINE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

LOADED THE SUPERBLEND...NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS IN THE COASTAL WATERS.
ADDED 15 PERCENT TO THE WINDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND...25 PERCENT
OVER WATER.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT MAINLY MVFR TO OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT
DUE TO CLOUDS AND RAIN/RAIN SHOWERS. SOUTH WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
SHIFT INTO THE WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS EAST
ACROSS THE REGION. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE EAST OF THE
COAST BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE
REGION SUNDAY WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND GENERALLY MVFR
CONDITIONS DURING SUNDAY.

SHORT TERM: CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR SUNDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN
VFR THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS MAY LOWER TO MVFR DOWNEAST ON
TUESDAY BUT REMAIN VFR ACROSS THE NORTH.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY.
LONG PERIOD SWELL FROM GONZALO WILL AFFECT THE WATERS BRINGING
ROUGH SEAS IN S TO SE SWELL THROUGH SUNDAY.

SHORT TERM: AN SCA WILL BE NEEDED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING
FOR GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS RIDGING BRIEFLY MOVES OVER
THE WATERS.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...DUDA
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...NORTON
AVIATION...DUDA/BLOOMER
MARINE...DUDA/BLOOMER











000
FXUS61 KCAR 181913
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
313 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE SUNDAY. COLD HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE STATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES REALITY IS JUST A
COLD FRONT AWAY. THAT COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY CROSSING QUEBEC WHERE
TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S THIS AFTERNOON.

THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT REACHING THE COAST BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE REGION TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY BRINGING RAIN TO
PORTIONS OF NEW YORK STATE AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AS OF LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS AREA OF RAIN WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN
MAINE THIS EVENING WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AND MORE SHOWERY CONDITIONS DOWN EAST. LOW
TEMPERATURES BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WILL FALL INTO THE MID 30S
ACROSS NORTHWEST AREAS AND LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS THE REST OF THE
REGION.

SUNDAY WILL BE A BLUSTERY AND MUCH COOLER DAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE REGION WILL KEEP SKIES
MOSTLY CLOUDY AND SCATTERED SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED. MODERATELY
STRONG COLD ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AND MID
TO UPPER 40S DOWNEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MARITIMES COMBINED WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING ONTO THE EAST COAST WILL MAINTAIN A CHILLY WESTERLY
BREEZE SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPS WILL FALL A FEW DEGREES BELOW FREEZING
IN MOST AREAS. MONDAY WILL BEGIN SUNNY AND COLD ACROSS THE
REGION. HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE MONDAY AFTERNOON FROM A LARGE
AND SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM WHICH WILL BEGIN DEVELOPING OVER THE
GREAT LAKES EARLY NEXT WEEK. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS THIS LOW SLIDES SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST. DEEP AMPLIFICATION OF THE JET STREAM WITH
STEEP RIDGING IN CENTRAL CANADA AND A TROUGH DIGGING TOWARD THE
EAST COAST WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LARGE AND SLOW
MOVING STORM SYSTEM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON TUESDAY. SOME
LIGHT RAIN MAY BEGIN TO STRAY INTO DOWNEAST AREAS LATE TUESDAY
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD THERE WILL BE A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE NORTH OF MAINE THAT WILL BE RETREATING TO THE NORTHEAST...A
LOW ALONG THE COAST OF DELMARVA...THAT WILL BE MOVING SLOWLY NORTH
ALONG THE COAST. BY WED MRNG THE LOW WILL MOVE NORTH TO SE OF CAPE
COD...BY THIS TIME THE LOW WILL HAVE AN OCCLUDED FRONT WRAPPED
AROUND IT THAT EXTENDS INTO SOUTHERN MAINE. ITS ASSOCIATED UPPER
LOW WILL BE STACKED JUST WEST OF THE SFC LOW OVER NJ. BY WED
EVNG...THE GFS STACKS THE UPPER LOW OVER THE SFC LOW OVER CAPE
COD. THE ECMWF/GEM SHOW THE LOW ALONG THE COAST OF DELMARVA WITH
THE UPPER LOW REMAINING WEST OF THE SFC LOW. BY THURS MRNG THE
ECMWF CATCHES UP WITH THE GFS...MOVING THE CENTER TO A POSITION
SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND...THE GFS SHIFTS THE CENTER TO A SIMILAR
LOCATION...THE GEM REMAINS FURTHER SOUTH EAST OF DELMARVA. FROM
HERE THROUGH SAT AFTN...THE GFS/ECMWF MOVE THE CENTER ACROSS THE
GULF OF MAINE INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. BOTH KEEP MAINE UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF THE OCCLUDED FRONT THROUGH THE PERIOD. BY THE END
OF THE PERIOD...THE LOW WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA IN THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES...WRAP AROUND PRECIP WILL BE BROUGHT BACK INTO NRN AND
CNTRL MAINE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

LOADED THE SUPERBLEND...NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS IN THE COASTAL WATERS.
ADDED 15 PERCENT TO THE WINDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND...25 PERCENT
OVER WATER.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT MAINLY MVFR TO OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT
DUE TO CLOUDS AND RAIN/RAIN SHOWERS. SOUTH WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
SHIFT INTO THE WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS EAST
ACROSS THE REGION. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE EAST OF THE
COAST BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE
REGION SUNDAY WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND GENERALLY MVFR
CONDITIONS DURING SUNDAY.

SHORT TERM: CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR SUNDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN
VFR THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS MAY LOWER TO MVFR DOWNEAST ON
TUESDAY BUT REMAIN VFR ACROSS THE NORTH.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY.
LONG PERIOD SWELL FROM GONZALO WILL AFFECT THE WATERS BRINGING
ROUGH SEAS IN S TO SE SWELL THROUGH SUNDAY.

SHORT TERM: AN SCA WILL BE NEEDED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING
FOR GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS RIDGING BRIEFLY MOVES OVER
THE WATERS.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...DUDA
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...NORTON
AVIATION...DUDA/BLOOMER
MARINE...DUDA/BLOOMER











000
FXUS61 KCAR 181913
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
313 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE SUNDAY. COLD HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE STATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES REALITY IS JUST A
COLD FRONT AWAY. THAT COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY CROSSING QUEBEC WHERE
TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S THIS AFTERNOON.

THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT REACHING THE COAST BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE REGION TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY BRINGING RAIN TO
PORTIONS OF NEW YORK STATE AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AS OF LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS AREA OF RAIN WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN
MAINE THIS EVENING WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AND MORE SHOWERY CONDITIONS DOWN EAST. LOW
TEMPERATURES BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WILL FALL INTO THE MID 30S
ACROSS NORTHWEST AREAS AND LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS THE REST OF THE
REGION.

SUNDAY WILL BE A BLUSTERY AND MUCH COOLER DAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE REGION WILL KEEP SKIES
MOSTLY CLOUDY AND SCATTERED SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED. MODERATELY
STRONG COLD ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AND MID
TO UPPER 40S DOWNEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MARITIMES COMBINED WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING ONTO THE EAST COAST WILL MAINTAIN A CHILLY WESTERLY
BREEZE SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPS WILL FALL A FEW DEGREES BELOW FREEZING
IN MOST AREAS. MONDAY WILL BEGIN SUNNY AND COLD ACROSS THE
REGION. HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE MONDAY AFTERNOON FROM A LARGE
AND SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM WHICH WILL BEGIN DEVELOPING OVER THE
GREAT LAKES EARLY NEXT WEEK. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS THIS LOW SLIDES SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST. DEEP AMPLIFICATION OF THE JET STREAM WITH
STEEP RIDGING IN CENTRAL CANADA AND A TROUGH DIGGING TOWARD THE
EAST COAST WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LARGE AND SLOW
MOVING STORM SYSTEM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON TUESDAY. SOME
LIGHT RAIN MAY BEGIN TO STRAY INTO DOWNEAST AREAS LATE TUESDAY
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD THERE WILL BE A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE NORTH OF MAINE THAT WILL BE RETREATING TO THE NORTHEAST...A
LOW ALONG THE COAST OF DELMARVA...THAT WILL BE MOVING SLOWLY NORTH
ALONG THE COAST. BY WED MRNG THE LOW WILL MOVE NORTH TO SE OF CAPE
COD...BY THIS TIME THE LOW WILL HAVE AN OCCLUDED FRONT WRAPPED
AROUND IT THAT EXTENDS INTO SOUTHERN MAINE. ITS ASSOCIATED UPPER
LOW WILL BE STACKED JUST WEST OF THE SFC LOW OVER NJ. BY WED
EVNG...THE GFS STACKS THE UPPER LOW OVER THE SFC LOW OVER CAPE
COD. THE ECMWF/GEM SHOW THE LOW ALONG THE COAST OF DELMARVA WITH
THE UPPER LOW REMAINING WEST OF THE SFC LOW. BY THURS MRNG THE
ECMWF CATCHES UP WITH THE GFS...MOVING THE CENTER TO A POSITION
SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND...THE GFS SHIFTS THE CENTER TO A SIMILAR
LOCATION...THE GEM REMAINS FURTHER SOUTH EAST OF DELMARVA. FROM
HERE THROUGH SAT AFTN...THE GFS/ECMWF MOVE THE CENTER ACROSS THE
GULF OF MAINE INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. BOTH KEEP MAINE UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF THE OCCLUDED FRONT THROUGH THE PERIOD. BY THE END
OF THE PERIOD...THE LOW WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA IN THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES...WRAP AROUND PRECIP WILL BE BROUGHT BACK INTO NRN AND
CNTRL MAINE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

LOADED THE SUPERBLEND...NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS IN THE COASTAL WATERS.
ADDED 15 PERCENT TO THE WINDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND...25 PERCENT
OVER WATER.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT MAINLY MVFR TO OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT
DUE TO CLOUDS AND RAIN/RAIN SHOWERS. SOUTH WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
SHIFT INTO THE WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS EAST
ACROSS THE REGION. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE EAST OF THE
COAST BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE
REGION SUNDAY WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND GENERALLY MVFR
CONDITIONS DURING SUNDAY.

SHORT TERM: CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR SUNDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN
VFR THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS MAY LOWER TO MVFR DOWNEAST ON
TUESDAY BUT REMAIN VFR ACROSS THE NORTH.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY.
LONG PERIOD SWELL FROM GONZALO WILL AFFECT THE WATERS BRINGING
ROUGH SEAS IN S TO SE SWELL THROUGH SUNDAY.

SHORT TERM: AN SCA WILL BE NEEDED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING
FOR GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS RIDGING BRIEFLY MOVES OVER
THE WATERS.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...DUDA
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...NORTON
AVIATION...DUDA/BLOOMER
MARINE...DUDA/BLOOMER











000
FXUS61 KCAR 181913
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
313 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE SUNDAY. COLD HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE STATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES REALITY IS JUST A
COLD FRONT AWAY. THAT COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY CROSSING QUEBEC WHERE
TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S THIS AFTERNOON.

THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT REACHING THE COAST BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE REGION TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY BRINGING RAIN TO
PORTIONS OF NEW YORK STATE AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AS OF LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS AREA OF RAIN WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN
MAINE THIS EVENING WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AND MORE SHOWERY CONDITIONS DOWN EAST. LOW
TEMPERATURES BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WILL FALL INTO THE MID 30S
ACROSS NORTHWEST AREAS AND LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS THE REST OF THE
REGION.

SUNDAY WILL BE A BLUSTERY AND MUCH COOLER DAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE REGION WILL KEEP SKIES
MOSTLY CLOUDY AND SCATTERED SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED. MODERATELY
STRONG COLD ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AND MID
TO UPPER 40S DOWNEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MARITIMES COMBINED WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING ONTO THE EAST COAST WILL MAINTAIN A CHILLY WESTERLY
BREEZE SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPS WILL FALL A FEW DEGREES BELOW FREEZING
IN MOST AREAS. MONDAY WILL BEGIN SUNNY AND COLD ACROSS THE
REGION. HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE MONDAY AFTERNOON FROM A LARGE
AND SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM WHICH WILL BEGIN DEVELOPING OVER THE
GREAT LAKES EARLY NEXT WEEK. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS THIS LOW SLIDES SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST. DEEP AMPLIFICATION OF THE JET STREAM WITH
STEEP RIDGING IN CENTRAL CANADA AND A TROUGH DIGGING TOWARD THE
EAST COAST WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LARGE AND SLOW
MOVING STORM SYSTEM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON TUESDAY. SOME
LIGHT RAIN MAY BEGIN TO STRAY INTO DOWNEAST AREAS LATE TUESDAY
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD THERE WILL BE A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE NORTH OF MAINE THAT WILL BE RETREATING TO THE NORTHEAST...A
LOW ALONG THE COAST OF DELMARVA...THAT WILL BE MOVING SLOWLY NORTH
ALONG THE COAST. BY WED MRNG THE LOW WILL MOVE NORTH TO SE OF CAPE
COD...BY THIS TIME THE LOW WILL HAVE AN OCCLUDED FRONT WRAPPED
AROUND IT THAT EXTENDS INTO SOUTHERN MAINE. ITS ASSOCIATED UPPER
LOW WILL BE STACKED JUST WEST OF THE SFC LOW OVER NJ. BY WED
EVNG...THE GFS STACKS THE UPPER LOW OVER THE SFC LOW OVER CAPE
COD. THE ECMWF/GEM SHOW THE LOW ALONG THE COAST OF DELMARVA WITH
THE UPPER LOW REMAINING WEST OF THE SFC LOW. BY THURS MRNG THE
ECMWF CATCHES UP WITH THE GFS...MOVING THE CENTER TO A POSITION
SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND...THE GFS SHIFTS THE CENTER TO A SIMILAR
LOCATION...THE GEM REMAINS FURTHER SOUTH EAST OF DELMARVA. FROM
HERE THROUGH SAT AFTN...THE GFS/ECMWF MOVE THE CENTER ACROSS THE
GULF OF MAINE INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. BOTH KEEP MAINE UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF THE OCCLUDED FRONT THROUGH THE PERIOD. BY THE END
OF THE PERIOD...THE LOW WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA IN THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES...WRAP AROUND PRECIP WILL BE BROUGHT BACK INTO NRN AND
CNTRL MAINE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

LOADED THE SUPERBLEND...NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS IN THE COASTAL WATERS.
ADDED 15 PERCENT TO THE WINDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND...25 PERCENT
OVER WATER.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT MAINLY MVFR TO OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT
DUE TO CLOUDS AND RAIN/RAIN SHOWERS. SOUTH WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
SHIFT INTO THE WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS EAST
ACROSS THE REGION. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE EAST OF THE
COAST BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE
REGION SUNDAY WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND GENERALLY MVFR
CONDITIONS DURING SUNDAY.

SHORT TERM: CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR SUNDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN
VFR THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS MAY LOWER TO MVFR DOWNEAST ON
TUESDAY BUT REMAIN VFR ACROSS THE NORTH.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY.
LONG PERIOD SWELL FROM GONZALO WILL AFFECT THE WATERS BRINGING
ROUGH SEAS IN S TO SE SWELL THROUGH SUNDAY.

SHORT TERM: AN SCA WILL BE NEEDED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING
FOR GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS RIDGING BRIEFLY MOVES OVER
THE WATERS.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...DUDA
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...NORTON
AVIATION...DUDA/BLOOMER
MARINE...DUDA/BLOOMER











000
FXUS61 KGYX 181828
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
228 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE TODAY. A STRONG NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL SET UP BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
LOW PRESSURE WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AND
WILL REDEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY NIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE WILL MEANDER OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON
SHIFTING OFFSHORE THIS EVENING. SOME MARGINAL INSTABILITY AHEAD OF
THE FRONT KICKING OFF SOME WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION BUT EXPECT
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA TO GET THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH JUST
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS.

VORT MAX ROUNDING THE THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY
PRODUCING MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND AND THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIFT THROUGH NORTHERN ZONES
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

ANOTHER WEAKER LOBE OF ENERGY WILL SWING THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND AFTER MIDNIGHT AND MAY PRODUCE SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN
ZONES AROUND DAYBREAK. LOW TEMPS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID 30S TO
LOWER 40S NORTH AND MID TO UPPER 40S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
BULK OF SUNDAY WILL WILL SEE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AS UPPER TROUGH
CROSSES THE AREA. AS MENTIONED ABOVE WILL SEE A CHANCE OF MORNING
SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES...DIMINISHING TO JUST A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. STRONG UPSLOPE FLOW WILL KEEP
SKIES CLOUDY IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE
DAY. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL RANGE THROUGH THE 40S NORTH AND LOWER TO
MID 50S SOUTH.

SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR SUNDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT. WILL SEE SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR OF THE
SEASON AS TEMPS DIP TO NEAR FREEZING DOWN TO THE COAST. COLDEST
AIR WILL BE FOUND IN NORTHWEST ZONES WHERE READINGS WILL SETTLE
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE LONG WAVE PATTERN
THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK. WE BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH A BRIEF RESPITE
FROM THE UNSETTLED WEATHER MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BY TO
OUR SOUTH. THE UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS BY TUESDAY...AS THE NEXT
IMPULSE DIVES SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND CARVES OUT AN
UPPER LOW OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. THIS LOW THEN MEANDERS
NORTH AND EAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND BEFORE BEING KICKED OUT INTO
THE MARITIMES BY EARLY NEXT WEEKEND. THE STEADIEST AND HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE SLOW-
MOVING COASTAL LOW. WHILE ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES ARE RELATIVELY
LOW THIS PORTION OF THE MONTH...THE PROLONGED ONSHORE FLOW AND
BUILDING SEAS WILL NOT PRECLUDE SPLASHOVER AND MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS IN THE NORTH
TONIGHT...OTHERWISE VFR. VFR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...

TUE NIGHT - THU...MVFR IN RAIN...WITH AREAS OF IFR IN RAIN AND
FOG.

WED...NE SFC WND GUSTS TO 30 KT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...CONTINUING SCA`S THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...

MON - TUE...SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND SEAS ARE POSSIBLE.

WED - THU...GALE FORCE WINDS ARE LIKELY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KGYX 181828
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
228 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE TODAY. A STRONG NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL SET UP BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
LOW PRESSURE WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AND
WILL REDEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY NIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE WILL MEANDER OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON
SHIFTING OFFSHORE THIS EVENING. SOME MARGINAL INSTABILITY AHEAD OF
THE FRONT KICKING OFF SOME WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION BUT EXPECT
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA TO GET THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH JUST
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS.

VORT MAX ROUNDING THE THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY
PRODUCING MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND AND THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIFT THROUGH NORTHERN ZONES
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

ANOTHER WEAKER LOBE OF ENERGY WILL SWING THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND AFTER MIDNIGHT AND MAY PRODUCE SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN
ZONES AROUND DAYBREAK. LOW TEMPS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID 30S TO
LOWER 40S NORTH AND MID TO UPPER 40S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
BULK OF SUNDAY WILL WILL SEE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AS UPPER TROUGH
CROSSES THE AREA. AS MENTIONED ABOVE WILL SEE A CHANCE OF MORNING
SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES...DIMINISHING TO JUST A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. STRONG UPSLOPE FLOW WILL KEEP
SKIES CLOUDY IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE
DAY. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL RANGE THROUGH THE 40S NORTH AND LOWER TO
MID 50S SOUTH.

SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR SUNDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT. WILL SEE SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR OF THE
SEASON AS TEMPS DIP TO NEAR FREEZING DOWN TO THE COAST. COLDEST
AIR WILL BE FOUND IN NORTHWEST ZONES WHERE READINGS WILL SETTLE
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE LONG WAVE PATTERN
THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK. WE BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH A BRIEF RESPITE
FROM THE UNSETTLED WEATHER MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BY TO
OUR SOUTH. THE UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS BY TUESDAY...AS THE NEXT
IMPULSE DIVES SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND CARVES OUT AN
UPPER LOW OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. THIS LOW THEN MEANDERS
NORTH AND EAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND BEFORE BEING KICKED OUT INTO
THE MARITIMES BY EARLY NEXT WEEKEND. THE STEADIEST AND HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE SLOW-
MOVING COASTAL LOW. WHILE ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES ARE RELATIVELY
LOW THIS PORTION OF THE MONTH...THE PROLONGED ONSHORE FLOW AND
BUILDING SEAS WILL NOT PRECLUDE SPLASHOVER AND MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS IN THE NORTH
TONIGHT...OTHERWISE VFR. VFR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...

TUE NIGHT - THU...MVFR IN RAIN...WITH AREAS OF IFR IN RAIN AND
FOG.

WED...NE SFC WND GUSTS TO 30 KT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...CONTINUING SCA`S THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...

MON - TUE...SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND SEAS ARE POSSIBLE.

WED - THU...GALE FORCE WINDS ARE LIKELY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$



    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities