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000
FXUS61 KGYX 282000
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
300 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION THIS EVENING BEFORE
SHIFTING OFFSHORE SUNDAY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE REGION
SUNDAY NIGHT...PRODUCING SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW...BEFORE MOVING
INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE
AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE
GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT AND WILL TRACK NORTHEAST THROUGH THE ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY...BRINGING A ROUND OF MIXED
PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA. A COLD FRONT FOLLOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE COLDEST MONTH EVER FOR PORTLAND MAINE WILL BE IN THE BOOKS
SHORTLY. LAST NIGHT WAS NEAR RECORD COLD AS WELL...WITH A LOW OF
MINUS 7 IN THE FOREST CITY. THIS IS JUST SHY OF THE RECORD LOW OF
MINUS 9 SET BACK IN 1950.

WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...EXPECT RADIATIONAL COOLING ONCE
AGAIN TONIGHT. WILL FORECAST ON THE LOWER END OF THE 12Z MODEL
SUITE WITH READINGS APPROACHING ZERO NEAR THE COASTLINE AND BELOW
ZERO OVER INTERIOR LOCATIONS. HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE ARRIVING LATER
TONIGHT. THIS MAY KEEP READINGS FROM TRUELY BOTTOMING OUT AS WAS
THE CASE LAST NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A BROAD AND WEAK AREA OF WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL ALLOW CLOUDS TO
THICKEN ON SUNDAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. LIGHT SNOW WILL BREAK
OUT SUNDAY NIGHT AS THIS DEVELOPING MOISTURE INTERACTS WITH AN
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM IN THE GULF OF MAINE LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT...BUT LIKELY TOO LATE TO BRING APPRECIABLE MOISTURE AND
SNOWFALL TO THE REGION. NEVERTHELESS...THERE WILL BE A TWO TO AS
MUCH AS FOUR INCHES OF SNOW OVER SOUTHERNMOST PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. FURTHER TO THE NORTH...AS HAS BEEN THE CASE MUCH OF
THIS WINTER...LESS SNOW WILL FALL.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE MODERATING BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF THE YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A SURFACE LOW EXITS RAPIDLY EAST INTO THE MARITIMES MONDAY WHILE
THE UPPER TROF MOVES THROUGH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE
PRECIPITATION WILL QUICKLY COME TO AN END EARLY MONDAY AS
DOWNSLOPING NORTHWEST WINDS KICK IN. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. A FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE WITH
ASSOCIATED WARM AIR ADVECTION OVERUNNING PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE FORM OF SNOW. SEVERAL INCHES OF
SNOW IS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE AREA. BY WEDNESDAY MORNING A BRIEF
CHANGEOVER TO A MIX OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS OVER SOUTHERN AREAS IS
POSSIBLE BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION ENDS AS LOW AND MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES MAY WARM ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS. BY LATE WEDNESDAY
MORNING A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA AND THEN OFFSHORE WITH
CLEARING BEHIND THE FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH FAIR CONDITIONS.

TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR THE WEEK. USED
A BLEND OF THE MODELS FOR TEMPERATURES AND POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS DETEORATING TO MVFR AND IFR SUNDAY
NIGHT IN LIGHT SNOW.

LONG TERM...
MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS EARLY MONDAY WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY LATE
MORNING MONDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY. TUESDAY NIGHT MVFR TO
IFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO VFR BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE
THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...NO FLAGS. WINDS BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS AS WELL AS SEAS
IN THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

LONG TERM...EXPECT TO NEED A STRONG SCA MONDAY AFT INTO MON NIGHT
IN AN INCREASING WEST FLOW...WINDS DIMINISH LATE MON NIGHT. SCA
MAY BE NEEDED AGAIN IN A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW LATE TUE NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KGYX 282000
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
300 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION THIS EVENING BEFORE
SHIFTING OFFSHORE SUNDAY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE REGION
SUNDAY NIGHT...PRODUCING SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW...BEFORE MOVING
INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE
AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE
GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT AND WILL TRACK NORTHEAST THROUGH THE ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY...BRINGING A ROUND OF MIXED
PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA. A COLD FRONT FOLLOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE COLDEST MONTH EVER FOR PORTLAND MAINE WILL BE IN THE BOOKS
SHORTLY. LAST NIGHT WAS NEAR RECORD COLD AS WELL...WITH A LOW OF
MINUS 7 IN THE FOREST CITY. THIS IS JUST SHY OF THE RECORD LOW OF
MINUS 9 SET BACK IN 1950.

WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...EXPECT RADIATIONAL COOLING ONCE
AGAIN TONIGHT. WILL FORECAST ON THE LOWER END OF THE 12Z MODEL
SUITE WITH READINGS APPROACHING ZERO NEAR THE COASTLINE AND BELOW
ZERO OVER INTERIOR LOCATIONS. HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE ARRIVING LATER
TONIGHT. THIS MAY KEEP READINGS FROM TRUELY BOTTOMING OUT AS WAS
THE CASE LAST NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A BROAD AND WEAK AREA OF WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL ALLOW CLOUDS TO
THICKEN ON SUNDAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. LIGHT SNOW WILL BREAK
OUT SUNDAY NIGHT AS THIS DEVELOPING MOISTURE INTERACTS WITH AN
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM IN THE GULF OF MAINE LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT...BUT LIKELY TOO LATE TO BRING APPRECIABLE MOISTURE AND
SNOWFALL TO THE REGION. NEVERTHELESS...THERE WILL BE A TWO TO AS
MUCH AS FOUR INCHES OF SNOW OVER SOUTHERNMOST PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. FURTHER TO THE NORTH...AS HAS BEEN THE CASE MUCH OF
THIS WINTER...LESS SNOW WILL FALL.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE MODERATING BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF THE YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A SURFACE LOW EXITS RAPIDLY EAST INTO THE MARITIMES MONDAY WHILE
THE UPPER TROF MOVES THROUGH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE
PRECIPITATION WILL QUICKLY COME TO AN END EARLY MONDAY AS
DOWNSLOPING NORTHWEST WINDS KICK IN. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. A FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE WITH
ASSOCIATED WARM AIR ADVECTION OVERUNNING PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE FORM OF SNOW. SEVERAL INCHES OF
SNOW IS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE AREA. BY WEDNESDAY MORNING A BRIEF
CHANGEOVER TO A MIX OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS OVER SOUTHERN AREAS IS
POSSIBLE BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION ENDS AS LOW AND MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES MAY WARM ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS. BY LATE WEDNESDAY
MORNING A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA AND THEN OFFSHORE WITH
CLEARING BEHIND THE FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH FAIR CONDITIONS.

TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR THE WEEK. USED
A BLEND OF THE MODELS FOR TEMPERATURES AND POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS DETEORATING TO MVFR AND IFR SUNDAY
NIGHT IN LIGHT SNOW.

LONG TERM...
MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS EARLY MONDAY WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY LATE
MORNING MONDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY. TUESDAY NIGHT MVFR TO
IFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO VFR BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE
THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...NO FLAGS. WINDS BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS AS WELL AS SEAS
IN THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

LONG TERM...EXPECT TO NEED A STRONG SCA MONDAY AFT INTO MON NIGHT
IN AN INCREASING WEST FLOW...WINDS DIMINISH LATE MON NIGHT. SCA
MAY BE NEEDED AGAIN IN A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW LATE TUE NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$


  [top]

000
FXUS61 KCAR 281950
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
250 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. LOW
PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY FROM
THE WEST. ANOTHER LOW WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STRONG HIGH PRES AROUND 1045 MILLIBARS IS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL
PA THIS AFTERNOON. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL WEAKEN AND SLOWLY
DRIFT OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST SUN. A TROUGH DRAPED
ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL
ONTARIO SUN AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT WILL BE CLEAR. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL AGAIN DECOUPLE IN MOST
VALLEYS ALLOWING FOR AN INITIAL RAPID DROP IN TEMPS. THE TEMPS
WILL LIKELY LEVEL OFF/DROP ONLY SLOWLY FOR A WHILE THROUGH THE
LATE EVENING WITH A SECONDARY DROP OVERNIGHT AS A STRONG RADIATION
INVERSION FORMS. THERE IS A BIT OF A GRADIENT THAT WILL KEEP TEMPS
FROM DROPPING AS MUCH ACROSS THE MORE EXPOSED TERRAIN. EXPECT MOST
AREAS TO DROP TO 10 BELOW TO ZERO...BUT IT WILL BE COLDER IN A FEW
OF THE MORE SHELTERED VALLEY AND MILDER ON THE HILLS AND RIGHT
ALONG SHORE ROADS.

MARCH TO COME IN LIKE A LAMB THIS YEAR. LOTS OF BRIGHT SUNSHINE FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY WITH SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS AS THE DAY WEARS ON.
THE AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE AND HIGH TEMPS WILL BE A FEW
DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY. OUR FORECAST HIGH TEMPS IN MANY AREAS
HAVE BEEN REACHED BY AROUND NOON THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS AND HAVE
HAD TO BE RAISED...AND WILL ADJUST THE FORECAST HIGHS UP JUST A
BIT FOR TOMORROW. THIS MEANS HIGHS IN THE M/U 20S ACROSS THE CROWN
OF MAINE TO AROUND THE FREEZING MARK ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
THE MAJOR SYSTEMS. THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST
AS A TWO SYSTEM APPROACH FROM THE WEST. A LOW MOVING ACROSS THE
ERN GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE INTO WRN MAINE AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD. A SECOND SYSTEM MOVING EAST ACROSS HUDSON BAY WITH ITS
COLD FRONT SE INTO LAKE SUPERIOR WILL COMBINE WITH THE SYSTEM OVER
THE ERN GREAT LAKES. BY MON MRNG THE COMBINED SYSTEM WILL SWEEP
THROUGH TO ERN MAINE. THE MODELS INDICATE SECONDARY DEVELOPMENT
OVER THE GULF OF MAINE. THE GFS/ECMWF KEEP THE NEW LOW ALONG THE
COAST OF MAINE. THE GFS OVER THE DOWNEAST COAST...ECMWF OVER THE
MID-COAST REGION. BOTH THE GEM/NAM SHOW THE SECONDARY LOW OVER THE
SRN GULF OF MAINE. MON EVNG THE LOW DEEPENS AND MOVES TO THE EAST.
THE GFS/ECMWF MOVE IT TO NEWFOUNDLAND. THE GEM/NAM INTO THE
MARITIMES EAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND. HIGHER PRESSURE BUILDS INTO MAINE
THAT WILL CREST OVER THE AREA TUES AFTERNOON AS A NEW LOW MOVES
EAST OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION TO ERN NE. BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD...THE NEW LOW WILL MOVE INTO MICHIGAN...AS THE RIDGE
CONTINUES TO BUILD EAST.

LOADED A BLEND OF THE GFS/NAM/GEM/ECMWF FOR T/TD/WND/POP. LOADED
NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS IN THE COASTAL WATERS. ADDED 15 PERCENT TO WINDS
FOR GUSTS OVER LAND...35 PERCENT FOR GUSTS OVER COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES EAST OF THE AREA BY TUESDAY NIGHT AS
STRONG LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. GFS AND ECMWF HAVE
SIMILAR SOLUTIONS WITH TRACK OF LOW ALONG ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY
BUT MAJOR DIFFERENCES IN STRENGTH OF LOW AND ASSOCIATED WARM AIR
WITH THE SYSTEM. GFS IS MUCH DEEPER AND WARMER SOLUTION
INDICATING RAIN DOWNEAST WITH MIXED ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTHERN AREAS.
ECMWF SHOWS RAIN ALONG COAST...MIXED IN CENTRAL AND SNOW ACROSS
NORTH. OPTED TO STICK WITH BLEND SOLUTION...CLOSER TO EUROPEAN.
GUSTY WINDS AND COLDER AIR AS LOW MOVES NORTHEAST AND SURFACE
RIDGE BUILDS IN. LINGERING CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THURSDAY
WITH SHORT WAVES EMBEDDED IN NORTHWEST FLOW. SHORT RESPITE FROM
SNOW ON FRIDAY UNDER STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUT CLOUDS WILL AGAIN BE
ON THE INCREASE SATURDAY AHEAD OF NEXT LOW APPROACHING FROM WEST.


&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THROUGH 00Z MON.

SHORT TERM: IFR IN LIGHT SNOW BGR...BHB...HUL...MVFR NRN SITES AS
A LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE NRN GULF OF MAINE. IMPROVING CONDITIONS SW
TO NE MON MRNG WITH ALL SITES VFR MON AFTERNOON. GENERALLY CLEAR
CONDITIONS MON NGT THROUGH TUES MRNG...WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS
TUES MRNG...MID LEVEL CLOUDS TUES AFTERNOON. BY TUES EVNG
BGR...BHB WILL BE OVRCST MID LEVEL CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
IFR CONDITIONS RETURN TUES NGT IN SNOW WITH AS THE NEXT FRONTAL
SYSTEM MOVES IN. IFR CONDITIONS WILL MOVE SW AND SPREAD EAST. THIS
SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THURS MRNG WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO
VFR BY THURS AFTERNOON AS HIGHER PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS HIGH PRES TO THE WEST OF THE
WATERS PASSES SOUTH OF THE WATERS SUN. LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY IS
POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

SHORT TERM: WINDS ANDS SEAS BELOW SCA SUNDAY NIGHT...WINDS
BUILDING TO GALE FORCE GUSTS MONDAY AFTERNOON. SEAS BUILDING TO 6
TO 9 FT. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE BELOW SCA TUES AFTERNOON AS HIGHER
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO BELOW 5 FT
TUES MRNG.

&&

.CLIMATE...THIS FEBRUARY WILL END AS THE ALL-TIME COLDEST MONTH
ON RECORD AT BANGOR...AND THE COLDEST FEBRUARY AT CARIBOU. THE
LATEST UP TO DATE INFORMATION ON THE COLD WEATHER THIS FEBRUARY IS
AVAILABLE ON THE NEWS HEADLINES ON THE TOP OF OUR WEB PAGE AT
WEATHER.GOV/CAR

A FULL SUMMARY OF THE MONTH WILL BE AVAILABLE BY SUNDAY EVENING.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CB
SHORT TERM...RLN
LONG TERM...PJR
AVIATION...CB/RLN
MARINE...CB/RLN
CLIMATE...CB



000
FXUS61 KCAR 281950
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
250 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. LOW
PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY FROM
THE WEST. ANOTHER LOW WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STRONG HIGH PRES AROUND 1045 MILLIBARS IS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL
PA THIS AFTERNOON. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL WEAKEN AND SLOWLY
DRIFT OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST SUN. A TROUGH DRAPED
ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL
ONTARIO SUN AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT WILL BE CLEAR. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL AGAIN DECOUPLE IN MOST
VALLEYS ALLOWING FOR AN INITIAL RAPID DROP IN TEMPS. THE TEMPS
WILL LIKELY LEVEL OFF/DROP ONLY SLOWLY FOR A WHILE THROUGH THE
LATE EVENING WITH A SECONDARY DROP OVERNIGHT AS A STRONG RADIATION
INVERSION FORMS. THERE IS A BIT OF A GRADIENT THAT WILL KEEP TEMPS
FROM DROPPING AS MUCH ACROSS THE MORE EXPOSED TERRAIN. EXPECT MOST
AREAS TO DROP TO 10 BELOW TO ZERO...BUT IT WILL BE COLDER IN A FEW
OF THE MORE SHELTERED VALLEY AND MILDER ON THE HILLS AND RIGHT
ALONG SHORE ROADS.

MARCH TO COME IN LIKE A LAMB THIS YEAR. LOTS OF BRIGHT SUNSHINE FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY WITH SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS AS THE DAY WEARS ON.
THE AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE AND HIGH TEMPS WILL BE A FEW
DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY. OUR FORECAST HIGH TEMPS IN MANY AREAS
HAVE BEEN REACHED BY AROUND NOON THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS AND HAVE
HAD TO BE RAISED...AND WILL ADJUST THE FORECAST HIGHS UP JUST A
BIT FOR TOMORROW. THIS MEANS HIGHS IN THE M/U 20S ACROSS THE CROWN
OF MAINE TO AROUND THE FREEZING MARK ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
THE MAJOR SYSTEMS. THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST
AS A TWO SYSTEM APPROACH FROM THE WEST. A LOW MOVING ACROSS THE
ERN GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE INTO WRN MAINE AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD. A SECOND SYSTEM MOVING EAST ACROSS HUDSON BAY WITH ITS
COLD FRONT SE INTO LAKE SUPERIOR WILL COMBINE WITH THE SYSTEM OVER
THE ERN GREAT LAKES. BY MON MRNG THE COMBINED SYSTEM WILL SWEEP
THROUGH TO ERN MAINE. THE MODELS INDICATE SECONDARY DEVELOPMENT
OVER THE GULF OF MAINE. THE GFS/ECMWF KEEP THE NEW LOW ALONG THE
COAST OF MAINE. THE GFS OVER THE DOWNEAST COAST...ECMWF OVER THE
MID-COAST REGION. BOTH THE GEM/NAM SHOW THE SECONDARY LOW OVER THE
SRN GULF OF MAINE. MON EVNG THE LOW DEEPENS AND MOVES TO THE EAST.
THE GFS/ECMWF MOVE IT TO NEWFOUNDLAND. THE GEM/NAM INTO THE
MARITIMES EAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND. HIGHER PRESSURE BUILDS INTO MAINE
THAT WILL CREST OVER THE AREA TUES AFTERNOON AS A NEW LOW MOVES
EAST OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION TO ERN NE. BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD...THE NEW LOW WILL MOVE INTO MICHIGAN...AS THE RIDGE
CONTINUES TO BUILD EAST.

LOADED A BLEND OF THE GFS/NAM/GEM/ECMWF FOR T/TD/WND/POP. LOADED
NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS IN THE COASTAL WATERS. ADDED 15 PERCENT TO WINDS
FOR GUSTS OVER LAND...35 PERCENT FOR GUSTS OVER COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES EAST OF THE AREA BY TUESDAY NIGHT AS
STRONG LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. GFS AND ECMWF HAVE
SIMILAR SOLUTIONS WITH TRACK OF LOW ALONG ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY
BUT MAJOR DIFFERENCES IN STRENGTH OF LOW AND ASSOCIATED WARM AIR
WITH THE SYSTEM. GFS IS MUCH DEEPER AND WARMER SOLUTION
INDICATING RAIN DOWNEAST WITH MIXED ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTHERN AREAS.
ECMWF SHOWS RAIN ALONG COAST...MIXED IN CENTRAL AND SNOW ACROSS
NORTH. OPTED TO STICK WITH BLEND SOLUTION...CLOSER TO EUROPEAN.
GUSTY WINDS AND COLDER AIR AS LOW MOVES NORTHEAST AND SURFACE
RIDGE BUILDS IN. LINGERING CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THURSDAY
WITH SHORT WAVES EMBEDDED IN NORTHWEST FLOW. SHORT RESPITE FROM
SNOW ON FRIDAY UNDER STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUT CLOUDS WILL AGAIN BE
ON THE INCREASE SATURDAY AHEAD OF NEXT LOW APPROACHING FROM WEST.


&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THROUGH 00Z MON.

SHORT TERM: IFR IN LIGHT SNOW BGR...BHB...HUL...MVFR NRN SITES AS
A LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE NRN GULF OF MAINE. IMPROVING CONDITIONS SW
TO NE MON MRNG WITH ALL SITES VFR MON AFTERNOON. GENERALLY CLEAR
CONDITIONS MON NGT THROUGH TUES MRNG...WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS
TUES MRNG...MID LEVEL CLOUDS TUES AFTERNOON. BY TUES EVNG
BGR...BHB WILL BE OVRCST MID LEVEL CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
IFR CONDITIONS RETURN TUES NGT IN SNOW WITH AS THE NEXT FRONTAL
SYSTEM MOVES IN. IFR CONDITIONS WILL MOVE SW AND SPREAD EAST. THIS
SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THURS MRNG WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO
VFR BY THURS AFTERNOON AS HIGHER PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS HIGH PRES TO THE WEST OF THE
WATERS PASSES SOUTH OF THE WATERS SUN. LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY IS
POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

SHORT TERM: WINDS ANDS SEAS BELOW SCA SUNDAY NIGHT...WINDS
BUILDING TO GALE FORCE GUSTS MONDAY AFTERNOON. SEAS BUILDING TO 6
TO 9 FT. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE BELOW SCA TUES AFTERNOON AS HIGHER
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO BELOW 5 FT
TUES MRNG.

&&

.CLIMATE...THIS FEBRUARY WILL END AS THE ALL-TIME COLDEST MONTH
ON RECORD AT BANGOR...AND THE COLDEST FEBRUARY AT CARIBOU. THE
LATEST UP TO DATE INFORMATION ON THE COLD WEATHER THIS FEBRUARY IS
AVAILABLE ON THE NEWS HEADLINES ON THE TOP OF OUR WEB PAGE AT
WEATHER.GOV/CAR

A FULL SUMMARY OF THE MONTH WILL BE AVAILABLE BY SUNDAY EVENING.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CB
SHORT TERM...RLN
LONG TERM...PJR
AVIATION...CB/RLN
MARINE...CB/RLN
CLIMATE...CB




000
FXUS61 KCAR 281950
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
250 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. LOW
PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY FROM
THE WEST. ANOTHER LOW WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STRONG HIGH PRES AROUND 1045 MILLIBARS IS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL
PA THIS AFTERNOON. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL WEAKEN AND SLOWLY
DRIFT OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST SUN. A TROUGH DRAPED
ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL
ONTARIO SUN AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT WILL BE CLEAR. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL AGAIN DECOUPLE IN MOST
VALLEYS ALLOWING FOR AN INITIAL RAPID DROP IN TEMPS. THE TEMPS
WILL LIKELY LEVEL OFF/DROP ONLY SLOWLY FOR A WHILE THROUGH THE
LATE EVENING WITH A SECONDARY DROP OVERNIGHT AS A STRONG RADIATION
INVERSION FORMS. THERE IS A BIT OF A GRADIENT THAT WILL KEEP TEMPS
FROM DROPPING AS MUCH ACROSS THE MORE EXPOSED TERRAIN. EXPECT MOST
AREAS TO DROP TO 10 BELOW TO ZERO...BUT IT WILL BE COLDER IN A FEW
OF THE MORE SHELTERED VALLEY AND MILDER ON THE HILLS AND RIGHT
ALONG SHORE ROADS.

MARCH TO COME IN LIKE A LAMB THIS YEAR. LOTS OF BRIGHT SUNSHINE FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY WITH SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS AS THE DAY WEARS ON.
THE AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE AND HIGH TEMPS WILL BE A FEW
DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY. OUR FORECAST HIGH TEMPS IN MANY AREAS
HAVE BEEN REACHED BY AROUND NOON THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS AND HAVE
HAD TO BE RAISED...AND WILL ADJUST THE FORECAST HIGHS UP JUST A
BIT FOR TOMORROW. THIS MEANS HIGHS IN THE M/U 20S ACROSS THE CROWN
OF MAINE TO AROUND THE FREEZING MARK ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
THE MAJOR SYSTEMS. THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST
AS A TWO SYSTEM APPROACH FROM THE WEST. A LOW MOVING ACROSS THE
ERN GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE INTO WRN MAINE AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD. A SECOND SYSTEM MOVING EAST ACROSS HUDSON BAY WITH ITS
COLD FRONT SE INTO LAKE SUPERIOR WILL COMBINE WITH THE SYSTEM OVER
THE ERN GREAT LAKES. BY MON MRNG THE COMBINED SYSTEM WILL SWEEP
THROUGH TO ERN MAINE. THE MODELS INDICATE SECONDARY DEVELOPMENT
OVER THE GULF OF MAINE. THE GFS/ECMWF KEEP THE NEW LOW ALONG THE
COAST OF MAINE. THE GFS OVER THE DOWNEAST COAST...ECMWF OVER THE
MID-COAST REGION. BOTH THE GEM/NAM SHOW THE SECONDARY LOW OVER THE
SRN GULF OF MAINE. MON EVNG THE LOW DEEPENS AND MOVES TO THE EAST.
THE GFS/ECMWF MOVE IT TO NEWFOUNDLAND. THE GEM/NAM INTO THE
MARITIMES EAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND. HIGHER PRESSURE BUILDS INTO MAINE
THAT WILL CREST OVER THE AREA TUES AFTERNOON AS A NEW LOW MOVES
EAST OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION TO ERN NE. BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD...THE NEW LOW WILL MOVE INTO MICHIGAN...AS THE RIDGE
CONTINUES TO BUILD EAST.

LOADED A BLEND OF THE GFS/NAM/GEM/ECMWF FOR T/TD/WND/POP. LOADED
NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS IN THE COASTAL WATERS. ADDED 15 PERCENT TO WINDS
FOR GUSTS OVER LAND...35 PERCENT FOR GUSTS OVER COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES EAST OF THE AREA BY TUESDAY NIGHT AS
STRONG LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. GFS AND ECMWF HAVE
SIMILAR SOLUTIONS WITH TRACK OF LOW ALONG ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY
BUT MAJOR DIFFERENCES IN STRENGTH OF LOW AND ASSOCIATED WARM AIR
WITH THE SYSTEM. GFS IS MUCH DEEPER AND WARMER SOLUTION
INDICATING RAIN DOWNEAST WITH MIXED ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTHERN AREAS.
ECMWF SHOWS RAIN ALONG COAST...MIXED IN CENTRAL AND SNOW ACROSS
NORTH. OPTED TO STICK WITH BLEND SOLUTION...CLOSER TO EUROPEAN.
GUSTY WINDS AND COLDER AIR AS LOW MOVES NORTHEAST AND SURFACE
RIDGE BUILDS IN. LINGERING CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THURSDAY
WITH SHORT WAVES EMBEDDED IN NORTHWEST FLOW. SHORT RESPITE FROM
SNOW ON FRIDAY UNDER STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUT CLOUDS WILL AGAIN BE
ON THE INCREASE SATURDAY AHEAD OF NEXT LOW APPROACHING FROM WEST.


&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THROUGH 00Z MON.

SHORT TERM: IFR IN LIGHT SNOW BGR...BHB...HUL...MVFR NRN SITES AS
A LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE NRN GULF OF MAINE. IMPROVING CONDITIONS SW
TO NE MON MRNG WITH ALL SITES VFR MON AFTERNOON. GENERALLY CLEAR
CONDITIONS MON NGT THROUGH TUES MRNG...WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS
TUES MRNG...MID LEVEL CLOUDS TUES AFTERNOON. BY TUES EVNG
BGR...BHB WILL BE OVRCST MID LEVEL CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
IFR CONDITIONS RETURN TUES NGT IN SNOW WITH AS THE NEXT FRONTAL
SYSTEM MOVES IN. IFR CONDITIONS WILL MOVE SW AND SPREAD EAST. THIS
SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THURS MRNG WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO
VFR BY THURS AFTERNOON AS HIGHER PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS HIGH PRES TO THE WEST OF THE
WATERS PASSES SOUTH OF THE WATERS SUN. LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY IS
POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

SHORT TERM: WINDS ANDS SEAS BELOW SCA SUNDAY NIGHT...WINDS
BUILDING TO GALE FORCE GUSTS MONDAY AFTERNOON. SEAS BUILDING TO 6
TO 9 FT. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE BELOW SCA TUES AFTERNOON AS HIGHER
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO BELOW 5 FT
TUES MRNG.

&&

.CLIMATE...THIS FEBRUARY WILL END AS THE ALL-TIME COLDEST MONTH
ON RECORD AT BANGOR...AND THE COLDEST FEBRUARY AT CARIBOU. THE
LATEST UP TO DATE INFORMATION ON THE COLD WEATHER THIS FEBRUARY IS
AVAILABLE ON THE NEWS HEADLINES ON THE TOP OF OUR WEB PAGE AT
WEATHER.GOV/CAR

A FULL SUMMARY OF THE MONTH WILL BE AVAILABLE BY SUNDAY EVENING.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CB
SHORT TERM...RLN
LONG TERM...PJR
AVIATION...CB/RLN
MARINE...CB/RLN
CLIMATE...CB



000
FXUS61 KCAR 281950
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
250 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. LOW
PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY FROM
THE WEST. ANOTHER LOW WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STRONG HIGH PRES AROUND 1045 MILLIBARS IS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL
PA THIS AFTERNOON. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL WEAKEN AND SLOWLY
DRIFT OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST SUN. A TROUGH DRAPED
ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL
ONTARIO SUN AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT WILL BE CLEAR. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL AGAIN DECOUPLE IN MOST
VALLEYS ALLOWING FOR AN INITIAL RAPID DROP IN TEMPS. THE TEMPS
WILL LIKELY LEVEL OFF/DROP ONLY SLOWLY FOR A WHILE THROUGH THE
LATE EVENING WITH A SECONDARY DROP OVERNIGHT AS A STRONG RADIATION
INVERSION FORMS. THERE IS A BIT OF A GRADIENT THAT WILL KEEP TEMPS
FROM DROPPING AS MUCH ACROSS THE MORE EXPOSED TERRAIN. EXPECT MOST
AREAS TO DROP TO 10 BELOW TO ZERO...BUT IT WILL BE COLDER IN A FEW
OF THE MORE SHELTERED VALLEY AND MILDER ON THE HILLS AND RIGHT
ALONG SHORE ROADS.

MARCH TO COME IN LIKE A LAMB THIS YEAR. LOTS OF BRIGHT SUNSHINE FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY WITH SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS AS THE DAY WEARS ON.
THE AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE AND HIGH TEMPS WILL BE A FEW
DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY. OUR FORECAST HIGH TEMPS IN MANY AREAS
HAVE BEEN REACHED BY AROUND NOON THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS AND HAVE
HAD TO BE RAISED...AND WILL ADJUST THE FORECAST HIGHS UP JUST A
BIT FOR TOMORROW. THIS MEANS HIGHS IN THE M/U 20S ACROSS THE CROWN
OF MAINE TO AROUND THE FREEZING MARK ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
THE MAJOR SYSTEMS. THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST
AS A TWO SYSTEM APPROACH FROM THE WEST. A LOW MOVING ACROSS THE
ERN GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE INTO WRN MAINE AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD. A SECOND SYSTEM MOVING EAST ACROSS HUDSON BAY WITH ITS
COLD FRONT SE INTO LAKE SUPERIOR WILL COMBINE WITH THE SYSTEM OVER
THE ERN GREAT LAKES. BY MON MRNG THE COMBINED SYSTEM WILL SWEEP
THROUGH TO ERN MAINE. THE MODELS INDICATE SECONDARY DEVELOPMENT
OVER THE GULF OF MAINE. THE GFS/ECMWF KEEP THE NEW LOW ALONG THE
COAST OF MAINE. THE GFS OVER THE DOWNEAST COAST...ECMWF OVER THE
MID-COAST REGION. BOTH THE GEM/NAM SHOW THE SECONDARY LOW OVER THE
SRN GULF OF MAINE. MON EVNG THE LOW DEEPENS AND MOVES TO THE EAST.
THE GFS/ECMWF MOVE IT TO NEWFOUNDLAND. THE GEM/NAM INTO THE
MARITIMES EAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND. HIGHER PRESSURE BUILDS INTO MAINE
THAT WILL CREST OVER THE AREA TUES AFTERNOON AS A NEW LOW MOVES
EAST OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION TO ERN NE. BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD...THE NEW LOW WILL MOVE INTO MICHIGAN...AS THE RIDGE
CONTINUES TO BUILD EAST.

LOADED A BLEND OF THE GFS/NAM/GEM/ECMWF FOR T/TD/WND/POP. LOADED
NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS IN THE COASTAL WATERS. ADDED 15 PERCENT TO WINDS
FOR GUSTS OVER LAND...35 PERCENT FOR GUSTS OVER COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES EAST OF THE AREA BY TUESDAY NIGHT AS
STRONG LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. GFS AND ECMWF HAVE
SIMILAR SOLUTIONS WITH TRACK OF LOW ALONG ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY
BUT MAJOR DIFFERENCES IN STRENGTH OF LOW AND ASSOCIATED WARM AIR
WITH THE SYSTEM. GFS IS MUCH DEEPER AND WARMER SOLUTION
INDICATING RAIN DOWNEAST WITH MIXED ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTHERN AREAS.
ECMWF SHOWS RAIN ALONG COAST...MIXED IN CENTRAL AND SNOW ACROSS
NORTH. OPTED TO STICK WITH BLEND SOLUTION...CLOSER TO EUROPEAN.
GUSTY WINDS AND COLDER AIR AS LOW MOVES NORTHEAST AND SURFACE
RIDGE BUILDS IN. LINGERING CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THURSDAY
WITH SHORT WAVES EMBEDDED IN NORTHWEST FLOW. SHORT RESPITE FROM
SNOW ON FRIDAY UNDER STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUT CLOUDS WILL AGAIN BE
ON THE INCREASE SATURDAY AHEAD OF NEXT LOW APPROACHING FROM WEST.


&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THROUGH 00Z MON.

SHORT TERM: IFR IN LIGHT SNOW BGR...BHB...HUL...MVFR NRN SITES AS
A LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE NRN GULF OF MAINE. IMPROVING CONDITIONS SW
TO NE MON MRNG WITH ALL SITES VFR MON AFTERNOON. GENERALLY CLEAR
CONDITIONS MON NGT THROUGH TUES MRNG...WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS
TUES MRNG...MID LEVEL CLOUDS TUES AFTERNOON. BY TUES EVNG
BGR...BHB WILL BE OVRCST MID LEVEL CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
IFR CONDITIONS RETURN TUES NGT IN SNOW WITH AS THE NEXT FRONTAL
SYSTEM MOVES IN. IFR CONDITIONS WILL MOVE SW AND SPREAD EAST. THIS
SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THURS MRNG WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO
VFR BY THURS AFTERNOON AS HIGHER PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS HIGH PRES TO THE WEST OF THE
WATERS PASSES SOUTH OF THE WATERS SUN. LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY IS
POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

SHORT TERM: WINDS ANDS SEAS BELOW SCA SUNDAY NIGHT...WINDS
BUILDING TO GALE FORCE GUSTS MONDAY AFTERNOON. SEAS BUILDING TO 6
TO 9 FT. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE BELOW SCA TUES AFTERNOON AS HIGHER
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO BELOW 5 FT
TUES MRNG.

&&

.CLIMATE...THIS FEBRUARY WILL END AS THE ALL-TIME COLDEST MONTH
ON RECORD AT BANGOR...AND THE COLDEST FEBRUARY AT CARIBOU. THE
LATEST UP TO DATE INFORMATION ON THE COLD WEATHER THIS FEBRUARY IS
AVAILABLE ON THE NEWS HEADLINES ON THE TOP OF OUR WEB PAGE AT
WEATHER.GOV/CAR

A FULL SUMMARY OF THE MONTH WILL BE AVAILABLE BY SUNDAY EVENING.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CB
SHORT TERM...RLN
LONG TERM...PJR
AVIATION...CB/RLN
MARINE...CB/RLN
CLIMATE...CB



000
FXUS61 KCAR 281950
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
250 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. LOW
PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY FROM
THE WEST. ANOTHER LOW WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STRONG HIGH PRES AROUND 1045 MILLIBARS IS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL
PA THIS AFTERNOON. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL WEAKEN AND SLOWLY
DRIFT OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST SUN. A TROUGH DRAPED
ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL
ONTARIO SUN AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT WILL BE CLEAR. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL AGAIN DECOUPLE IN MOST
VALLEYS ALLOWING FOR AN INITIAL RAPID DROP IN TEMPS. THE TEMPS
WILL LIKELY LEVEL OFF/DROP ONLY SLOWLY FOR A WHILE THROUGH THE
LATE EVENING WITH A SECONDARY DROP OVERNIGHT AS A STRONG RADIATION
INVERSION FORMS. THERE IS A BIT OF A GRADIENT THAT WILL KEEP TEMPS
FROM DROPPING AS MUCH ACROSS THE MORE EXPOSED TERRAIN. EXPECT MOST
AREAS TO DROP TO 10 BELOW TO ZERO...BUT IT WILL BE COLDER IN A FEW
OF THE MORE SHELTERED VALLEY AND MILDER ON THE HILLS AND RIGHT
ALONG SHORE ROADS.

MARCH TO COME IN LIKE A LAMB THIS YEAR. LOTS OF BRIGHT SUNSHINE FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY WITH SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS AS THE DAY WEARS ON.
THE AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE AND HIGH TEMPS WILL BE A FEW
DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY. OUR FORECAST HIGH TEMPS IN MANY AREAS
HAVE BEEN REACHED BY AROUND NOON THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS AND HAVE
HAD TO BE RAISED...AND WILL ADJUST THE FORECAST HIGHS UP JUST A
BIT FOR TOMORROW. THIS MEANS HIGHS IN THE M/U 20S ACROSS THE CROWN
OF MAINE TO AROUND THE FREEZING MARK ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
THE MAJOR SYSTEMS. THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST
AS A TWO SYSTEM APPROACH FROM THE WEST. A LOW MOVING ACROSS THE
ERN GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE INTO WRN MAINE AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD. A SECOND SYSTEM MOVING EAST ACROSS HUDSON BAY WITH ITS
COLD FRONT SE INTO LAKE SUPERIOR WILL COMBINE WITH THE SYSTEM OVER
THE ERN GREAT LAKES. BY MON MRNG THE COMBINED SYSTEM WILL SWEEP
THROUGH TO ERN MAINE. THE MODELS INDICATE SECONDARY DEVELOPMENT
OVER THE GULF OF MAINE. THE GFS/ECMWF KEEP THE NEW LOW ALONG THE
COAST OF MAINE. THE GFS OVER THE DOWNEAST COAST...ECMWF OVER THE
MID-COAST REGION. BOTH THE GEM/NAM SHOW THE SECONDARY LOW OVER THE
SRN GULF OF MAINE. MON EVNG THE LOW DEEPENS AND MOVES TO THE EAST.
THE GFS/ECMWF MOVE IT TO NEWFOUNDLAND. THE GEM/NAM INTO THE
MARITIMES EAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND. HIGHER PRESSURE BUILDS INTO MAINE
THAT WILL CREST OVER THE AREA TUES AFTERNOON AS A NEW LOW MOVES
EAST OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION TO ERN NE. BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD...THE NEW LOW WILL MOVE INTO MICHIGAN...AS THE RIDGE
CONTINUES TO BUILD EAST.

LOADED A BLEND OF THE GFS/NAM/GEM/ECMWF FOR T/TD/WND/POP. LOADED
NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS IN THE COASTAL WATERS. ADDED 15 PERCENT TO WINDS
FOR GUSTS OVER LAND...35 PERCENT FOR GUSTS OVER COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES EAST OF THE AREA BY TUESDAY NIGHT AS
STRONG LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. GFS AND ECMWF HAVE
SIMILAR SOLUTIONS WITH TRACK OF LOW ALONG ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY
BUT MAJOR DIFFERENCES IN STRENGTH OF LOW AND ASSOCIATED WARM AIR
WITH THE SYSTEM. GFS IS MUCH DEEPER AND WARMER SOLUTION
INDICATING RAIN DOWNEAST WITH MIXED ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTHERN AREAS.
ECMWF SHOWS RAIN ALONG COAST...MIXED IN CENTRAL AND SNOW ACROSS
NORTH. OPTED TO STICK WITH BLEND SOLUTION...CLOSER TO EUROPEAN.
GUSTY WINDS AND COLDER AIR AS LOW MOVES NORTHEAST AND SURFACE
RIDGE BUILDS IN. LINGERING CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THURSDAY
WITH SHORT WAVES EMBEDDED IN NORTHWEST FLOW. SHORT RESPITE FROM
SNOW ON FRIDAY UNDER STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUT CLOUDS WILL AGAIN BE
ON THE INCREASE SATURDAY AHEAD OF NEXT LOW APPROACHING FROM WEST.


&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THROUGH 00Z MON.

SHORT TERM: IFR IN LIGHT SNOW BGR...BHB...HUL...MVFR NRN SITES AS
A LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE NRN GULF OF MAINE. IMPROVING CONDITIONS SW
TO NE MON MRNG WITH ALL SITES VFR MON AFTERNOON. GENERALLY CLEAR
CONDITIONS MON NGT THROUGH TUES MRNG...WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS
TUES MRNG...MID LEVEL CLOUDS TUES AFTERNOON. BY TUES EVNG
BGR...BHB WILL BE OVRCST MID LEVEL CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
IFR CONDITIONS RETURN TUES NGT IN SNOW WITH AS THE NEXT FRONTAL
SYSTEM MOVES IN. IFR CONDITIONS WILL MOVE SW AND SPREAD EAST. THIS
SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THURS MRNG WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO
VFR BY THURS AFTERNOON AS HIGHER PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS HIGH PRES TO THE WEST OF THE
WATERS PASSES SOUTH OF THE WATERS SUN. LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY IS
POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

SHORT TERM: WINDS ANDS SEAS BELOW SCA SUNDAY NIGHT...WINDS
BUILDING TO GALE FORCE GUSTS MONDAY AFTERNOON. SEAS BUILDING TO 6
TO 9 FT. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE BELOW SCA TUES AFTERNOON AS HIGHER
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO BELOW 5 FT
TUES MRNG.

&&

.CLIMATE...THIS FEBRUARY WILL END AS THE ALL-TIME COLDEST MONTH
ON RECORD AT BANGOR...AND THE COLDEST FEBRUARY AT CARIBOU. THE
LATEST UP TO DATE INFORMATION ON THE COLD WEATHER THIS FEBRUARY IS
AVAILABLE ON THE NEWS HEADLINES ON THE TOP OF OUR WEB PAGE AT
WEATHER.GOV/CAR

A FULL SUMMARY OF THE MONTH WILL BE AVAILABLE BY SUNDAY EVENING.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CB
SHORT TERM...RLN
LONG TERM...PJR
AVIATION...CB/RLN
MARINE...CB/RLN
CLIMATE...CB



000
FXUS61 KCAR 281950
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
250 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. LOW
PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY FROM
THE WEST. ANOTHER LOW WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STRONG HIGH PRES AROUND 1045 MILLIBARS IS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL
PA THIS AFTERNOON. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL WEAKEN AND SLOWLY
DRIFT OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST SUN. A TROUGH DRAPED
ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL
ONTARIO SUN AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT WILL BE CLEAR. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL AGAIN DECOUPLE IN MOST
VALLEYS ALLOWING FOR AN INITIAL RAPID DROP IN TEMPS. THE TEMPS
WILL LIKELY LEVEL OFF/DROP ONLY SLOWLY FOR A WHILE THROUGH THE
LATE EVENING WITH A SECONDARY DROP OVERNIGHT AS A STRONG RADIATION
INVERSION FORMS. THERE IS A BIT OF A GRADIENT THAT WILL KEEP TEMPS
FROM DROPPING AS MUCH ACROSS THE MORE EXPOSED TERRAIN. EXPECT MOST
AREAS TO DROP TO 10 BELOW TO ZERO...BUT IT WILL BE COLDER IN A FEW
OF THE MORE SHELTERED VALLEY AND MILDER ON THE HILLS AND RIGHT
ALONG SHORE ROADS.

MARCH TO COME IN LIKE A LAMB THIS YEAR. LOTS OF BRIGHT SUNSHINE FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY WITH SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS AS THE DAY WEARS ON.
THE AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE AND HIGH TEMPS WILL BE A FEW
DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY. OUR FORECAST HIGH TEMPS IN MANY AREAS
HAVE BEEN REACHED BY AROUND NOON THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS AND HAVE
HAD TO BE RAISED...AND WILL ADJUST THE FORECAST HIGHS UP JUST A
BIT FOR TOMORROW. THIS MEANS HIGHS IN THE M/U 20S ACROSS THE CROWN
OF MAINE TO AROUND THE FREEZING MARK ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
THE MAJOR SYSTEMS. THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST
AS A TWO SYSTEM APPROACH FROM THE WEST. A LOW MOVING ACROSS THE
ERN GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE INTO WRN MAINE AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD. A SECOND SYSTEM MOVING EAST ACROSS HUDSON BAY WITH ITS
COLD FRONT SE INTO LAKE SUPERIOR WILL COMBINE WITH THE SYSTEM OVER
THE ERN GREAT LAKES. BY MON MRNG THE COMBINED SYSTEM WILL SWEEP
THROUGH TO ERN MAINE. THE MODELS INDICATE SECONDARY DEVELOPMENT
OVER THE GULF OF MAINE. THE GFS/ECMWF KEEP THE NEW LOW ALONG THE
COAST OF MAINE. THE GFS OVER THE DOWNEAST COAST...ECMWF OVER THE
MID-COAST REGION. BOTH THE GEM/NAM SHOW THE SECONDARY LOW OVER THE
SRN GULF OF MAINE. MON EVNG THE LOW DEEPENS AND MOVES TO THE EAST.
THE GFS/ECMWF MOVE IT TO NEWFOUNDLAND. THE GEM/NAM INTO THE
MARITIMES EAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND. HIGHER PRESSURE BUILDS INTO MAINE
THAT WILL CREST OVER THE AREA TUES AFTERNOON AS A NEW LOW MOVES
EAST OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION TO ERN NE. BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD...THE NEW LOW WILL MOVE INTO MICHIGAN...AS THE RIDGE
CONTINUES TO BUILD EAST.

LOADED A BLEND OF THE GFS/NAM/GEM/ECMWF FOR T/TD/WND/POP. LOADED
NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS IN THE COASTAL WATERS. ADDED 15 PERCENT TO WINDS
FOR GUSTS OVER LAND...35 PERCENT FOR GUSTS OVER COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES EAST OF THE AREA BY TUESDAY NIGHT AS
STRONG LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. GFS AND ECMWF HAVE
SIMILAR SOLUTIONS WITH TRACK OF LOW ALONG ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY
BUT MAJOR DIFFERENCES IN STRENGTH OF LOW AND ASSOCIATED WARM AIR
WITH THE SYSTEM. GFS IS MUCH DEEPER AND WARMER SOLUTION
INDICATING RAIN DOWNEAST WITH MIXED ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTHERN AREAS.
ECMWF SHOWS RAIN ALONG COAST...MIXED IN CENTRAL AND SNOW ACROSS
NORTH. OPTED TO STICK WITH BLEND SOLUTION...CLOSER TO EUROPEAN.
GUSTY WINDS AND COLDER AIR AS LOW MOVES NORTHEAST AND SURFACE
RIDGE BUILDS IN. LINGERING CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THURSDAY
WITH SHORT WAVES EMBEDDED IN NORTHWEST FLOW. SHORT RESPITE FROM
SNOW ON FRIDAY UNDER STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUT CLOUDS WILL AGAIN BE
ON THE INCREASE SATURDAY AHEAD OF NEXT LOW APPROACHING FROM WEST.


&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THROUGH 00Z MON.

SHORT TERM: IFR IN LIGHT SNOW BGR...BHB...HUL...MVFR NRN SITES AS
A LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE NRN GULF OF MAINE. IMPROVING CONDITIONS SW
TO NE MON MRNG WITH ALL SITES VFR MON AFTERNOON. GENERALLY CLEAR
CONDITIONS MON NGT THROUGH TUES MRNG...WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS
TUES MRNG...MID LEVEL CLOUDS TUES AFTERNOON. BY TUES EVNG
BGR...BHB WILL BE OVRCST MID LEVEL CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
IFR CONDITIONS RETURN TUES NGT IN SNOW WITH AS THE NEXT FRONTAL
SYSTEM MOVES IN. IFR CONDITIONS WILL MOVE SW AND SPREAD EAST. THIS
SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THURS MRNG WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO
VFR BY THURS AFTERNOON AS HIGHER PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS HIGH PRES TO THE WEST OF THE
WATERS PASSES SOUTH OF THE WATERS SUN. LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY IS
POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

SHORT TERM: WINDS ANDS SEAS BELOW SCA SUNDAY NIGHT...WINDS
BUILDING TO GALE FORCE GUSTS MONDAY AFTERNOON. SEAS BUILDING TO 6
TO 9 FT. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE BELOW SCA TUES AFTERNOON AS HIGHER
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO BELOW 5 FT
TUES MRNG.

&&

.CLIMATE...THIS FEBRUARY WILL END AS THE ALL-TIME COLDEST MONTH
ON RECORD AT BANGOR...AND THE COLDEST FEBRUARY AT CARIBOU. THE
LATEST UP TO DATE INFORMATION ON THE COLD WEATHER THIS FEBRUARY IS
AVAILABLE ON THE NEWS HEADLINES ON THE TOP OF OUR WEB PAGE AT
WEATHER.GOV/CAR

A FULL SUMMARY OF THE MONTH WILL BE AVAILABLE BY SUNDAY EVENING.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CB
SHORT TERM...RLN
LONG TERM...PJR
AVIATION...CB/RLN
MARINE...CB/RLN
CLIMATE...CB



000
FXUS61 KCAR 281714
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1214 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. LOW
PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY FROM
THE WEST. ANOTHER LOW WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1213 PM UPDATE...THE STRONG LATE FEB SUNSHINE IS AGAIN WORKING
WONDERS. THE STRONG LOW LEVEL INVERSIONS HAVE BROKEN AND TEMPS
HAVE REBOUNDED VERY CLOSE TO FORECAST HIGHS IN MANY AREAS. WILL
NEED TO RAISE THE HIGH TEMPS 3 TO 6 DEGREES MOST AREAS. OTHERWISE
THE ONGOING FORECAST IS IN GREAT SHAPE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGS SUNNY SKIES AND HIGHS IN THE 20S
FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. SUNDAY WILL BE THE WARMER DAY WITH HIGHS
EDGING TOWARDS 30F FOR BANGOR AND THE DOWN EAST REGION BUT CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW.

LOWS ON SATURDAY NIGHT WILL AGAIN HAVE LARGE SPATIAL VARIABILITY
DUE TO A DEEP AND SHALLOW RADIATIONAL INVERSION THAT WILL ALLOW
DECOUPLING IN SHELTERED LOCATIONS NORTH AS WELL AS MOST OF THE
DOWN EAST REGION. TEMPERATURES COULD DROP TO AROUND -10 TO -12F
WHERE WINDS GO CALM. THESE READINGS WILL BE A BIT WARMER THAN
THOSE REGISTERED FRIDAY NIGHT AS WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES.
STEADY SOUTHWEST WINDS ON THE NORTH SIDE OF A 1040MB HIGH ARE MOST
LIKELY TOWARDS THE CROWN OF MAINE WHILE CALM WINDS BY DAWN ARE
MORE LIKELY IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. IN TERMS OF
GUIDANCE...HAVE LEANED TOWARDS SOLUTIONS INDICATED BY THE BIAS-
CORRECTED NAM/GFS/MOS WITH THE COLDER TEMPERATURES IN THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE DECOUPLING AND A DEEPER INVERSION
ARE MOST LIKELY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST LATE SUNDAY THEN
CROSS THE STATE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. THE LOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO
INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES AWAY TO THE EAST... ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA
DURING THE DAY MONDAY. WILL USE A BLEND OF THE NAM... GFS AND
ECMWF FOR POPS... QPF AND SKY CONDITIONS. FOR SNOW AMOUNTS WILL
USE THE OFFICE SNOW FROM THICKNESS TOOL. WILL USE THE SUPER BLEND
FOR THE TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY MONDAY NIGHT AS IT MOVES
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE MARITIMES. AT THE SAME TIME STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE MID WEST. THE JUXTAPOSITION
OF THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL RESULT IN A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE STATE MONDAY NIGHT. WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED
TO DIMINISH TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER THE REGION DURING
THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE
SOUTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT THEN MOVE JUST TO THE WEST OR ACROSS THE
STATE WEDNESDAY. THE EXACT TRACK OF THE SYSTEM WILL DETERMINE
PRECIPITATION TYPE ACROSS THE AREA. RAIN OR SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN
IS POSSIBLE SOUTH WITH SNOW OR SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN NORTH. MORE
COLD AIR IS EXPECTED TO RETURN THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR UNTIL SUNDAY WHEN MVFR CIGS ARE ANTICIPATED NORTH
OF HUL BY LATE MORNING. MVFR CIGS WILL ROLL INTO BGR AND BHB BY
LATE SUNDAY.

SHORT TERM: IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. IFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: ALLOWED THE FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY TO EXPIRE. THERE
WILL STILL BE AREAS OF LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY INTO THIS AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM: FOR SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE USED THE NAM12. FOR WAVES:
SOUTHWEST WIND WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO DOMINATE SUNDAY NIGHT THEN
TRANSITION TO LONG PERIOD SWELL AS AN OFF-SHORE FETCH DEVELOPS
MONDAY. OFF SHORE WIND WAVE WILL PERSIST MONDAY THEN SUBSIDE
MONDAY NIGHT. WILL USE THE NEAR SHORE WAVE MODEL FOR WAVE HEIGHTS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THIS FEBRUARY WILL END AS THE ALL-TIME COLDEST MONTH ON RECORD AT
BANGOR...AND THE COLDEST FEBRUARY AT CARIBOU. MORE INFORMATION ON
THE COLD FEBRUARY IS AVAILABLE ON THE NEWS HEADLINES ON THE TOP OF
OUR WEB PAGE AT WEATHER.GOV/CAR
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CB/MCW
SHORT TERM...MIGNONE
LONG TERM...MIGNONE
AVIATION...CB/MCW/MIGNONE
MARINE...CB/MCW/MIGNONE
CLIMATE...CB



000
FXUS61 KCAR 281714
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1214 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. LOW
PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY FROM
THE WEST. ANOTHER LOW WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1213 PM UPDATE...THE STRONG LATE FEB SUNSHINE IS AGAIN WORKING
WONDERS. THE STRONG LOW LEVEL INVERSIONS HAVE BROKEN AND TEMPS
HAVE REBOUNDED VERY CLOSE TO FORECAST HIGHS IN MANY AREAS. WILL
NEED TO RAISE THE HIGH TEMPS 3 TO 6 DEGREES MOST AREAS. OTHERWISE
THE ONGOING FORECAST IS IN GREAT SHAPE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGS SUNNY SKIES AND HIGHS IN THE 20S
FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. SUNDAY WILL BE THE WARMER DAY WITH HIGHS
EDGING TOWARDS 30F FOR BANGOR AND THE DOWN EAST REGION BUT CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW.

LOWS ON SATURDAY NIGHT WILL AGAIN HAVE LARGE SPATIAL VARIABILITY
DUE TO A DEEP AND SHALLOW RADIATIONAL INVERSION THAT WILL ALLOW
DECOUPLING IN SHELTERED LOCATIONS NORTH AS WELL AS MOST OF THE
DOWN EAST REGION. TEMPERATURES COULD DROP TO AROUND -10 TO -12F
WHERE WINDS GO CALM. THESE READINGS WILL BE A BIT WARMER THAN
THOSE REGISTERED FRIDAY NIGHT AS WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES.
STEADY SOUTHWEST WINDS ON THE NORTH SIDE OF A 1040MB HIGH ARE MOST
LIKELY TOWARDS THE CROWN OF MAINE WHILE CALM WINDS BY DAWN ARE
MORE LIKELY IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. IN TERMS OF
GUIDANCE...HAVE LEANED TOWARDS SOLUTIONS INDICATED BY THE BIAS-
CORRECTED NAM/GFS/MOS WITH THE COLDER TEMPERATURES IN THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE DECOUPLING AND A DEEPER INVERSION
ARE MOST LIKELY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST LATE SUNDAY THEN
CROSS THE STATE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. THE LOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO
INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES AWAY TO THE EAST... ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA
DURING THE DAY MONDAY. WILL USE A BLEND OF THE NAM... GFS AND
ECMWF FOR POPS... QPF AND SKY CONDITIONS. FOR SNOW AMOUNTS WILL
USE THE OFFICE SNOW FROM THICKNESS TOOL. WILL USE THE SUPER BLEND
FOR THE TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY MONDAY NIGHT AS IT MOVES
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE MARITIMES. AT THE SAME TIME STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE MID WEST. THE JUXTAPOSITION
OF THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL RESULT IN A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE STATE MONDAY NIGHT. WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED
TO DIMINISH TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER THE REGION DURING
THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE
SOUTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT THEN MOVE JUST TO THE WEST OR ACROSS THE
STATE WEDNESDAY. THE EXACT TRACK OF THE SYSTEM WILL DETERMINE
PRECIPITATION TYPE ACROSS THE AREA. RAIN OR SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN
IS POSSIBLE SOUTH WITH SNOW OR SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN NORTH. MORE
COLD AIR IS EXPECTED TO RETURN THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR UNTIL SUNDAY WHEN MVFR CIGS ARE ANTICIPATED NORTH
OF HUL BY LATE MORNING. MVFR CIGS WILL ROLL INTO BGR AND BHB BY
LATE SUNDAY.

SHORT TERM: IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. IFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: ALLOWED THE FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY TO EXPIRE. THERE
WILL STILL BE AREAS OF LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY INTO THIS AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM: FOR SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE USED THE NAM12. FOR WAVES:
SOUTHWEST WIND WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO DOMINATE SUNDAY NIGHT THEN
TRANSITION TO LONG PERIOD SWELL AS AN OFF-SHORE FETCH DEVELOPS
MONDAY. OFF SHORE WIND WAVE WILL PERSIST MONDAY THEN SUBSIDE
MONDAY NIGHT. WILL USE THE NEAR SHORE WAVE MODEL FOR WAVE HEIGHTS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THIS FEBRUARY WILL END AS THE ALL-TIME COLDEST MONTH ON RECORD AT
BANGOR...AND THE COLDEST FEBRUARY AT CARIBOU. MORE INFORMATION ON
THE COLD FEBRUARY IS AVAILABLE ON THE NEWS HEADLINES ON THE TOP OF
OUR WEB PAGE AT WEATHER.GOV/CAR
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CB/MCW
SHORT TERM...MIGNONE
LONG TERM...MIGNONE
AVIATION...CB/MCW/MIGNONE
MARINE...CB/MCW/MIGNONE
CLIMATE...CB



000
FXUS61 KCAR 281714
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1214 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. LOW
PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY FROM
THE WEST. ANOTHER LOW WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1213 PM UPDATE...THE STRONG LATE FEB SUNSHINE IS AGAIN WORKING
WONDERS. THE STRONG LOW LEVEL INVERSIONS HAVE BROKEN AND TEMPS
HAVE REBOUNDED VERY CLOSE TO FORECAST HIGHS IN MANY AREAS. WILL
NEED TO RAISE THE HIGH TEMPS 3 TO 6 DEGREES MOST AREAS. OTHERWISE
THE ONGOING FORECAST IS IN GREAT SHAPE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGS SUNNY SKIES AND HIGHS IN THE 20S
FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. SUNDAY WILL BE THE WARMER DAY WITH HIGHS
EDGING TOWARDS 30F FOR BANGOR AND THE DOWN EAST REGION BUT CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW.

LOWS ON SATURDAY NIGHT WILL AGAIN HAVE LARGE SPATIAL VARIABILITY
DUE TO A DEEP AND SHALLOW RADIATIONAL INVERSION THAT WILL ALLOW
DECOUPLING IN SHELTERED LOCATIONS NORTH AS WELL AS MOST OF THE
DOWN EAST REGION. TEMPERATURES COULD DROP TO AROUND -10 TO -12F
WHERE WINDS GO CALM. THESE READINGS WILL BE A BIT WARMER THAN
THOSE REGISTERED FRIDAY NIGHT AS WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES.
STEADY SOUTHWEST WINDS ON THE NORTH SIDE OF A 1040MB HIGH ARE MOST
LIKELY TOWARDS THE CROWN OF MAINE WHILE CALM WINDS BY DAWN ARE
MORE LIKELY IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. IN TERMS OF
GUIDANCE...HAVE LEANED TOWARDS SOLUTIONS INDICATED BY THE BIAS-
CORRECTED NAM/GFS/MOS WITH THE COLDER TEMPERATURES IN THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE DECOUPLING AND A DEEPER INVERSION
ARE MOST LIKELY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST LATE SUNDAY THEN
CROSS THE STATE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. THE LOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO
INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES AWAY TO THE EAST... ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA
DURING THE DAY MONDAY. WILL USE A BLEND OF THE NAM... GFS AND
ECMWF FOR POPS... QPF AND SKY CONDITIONS. FOR SNOW AMOUNTS WILL
USE THE OFFICE SNOW FROM THICKNESS TOOL. WILL USE THE SUPER BLEND
FOR THE TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY MONDAY NIGHT AS IT MOVES
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE MARITIMES. AT THE SAME TIME STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE MID WEST. THE JUXTAPOSITION
OF THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL RESULT IN A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE STATE MONDAY NIGHT. WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED
TO DIMINISH TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER THE REGION DURING
THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE
SOUTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT THEN MOVE JUST TO THE WEST OR ACROSS THE
STATE WEDNESDAY. THE EXACT TRACK OF THE SYSTEM WILL DETERMINE
PRECIPITATION TYPE ACROSS THE AREA. RAIN OR SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN
IS POSSIBLE SOUTH WITH SNOW OR SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN NORTH. MORE
COLD AIR IS EXPECTED TO RETURN THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR UNTIL SUNDAY WHEN MVFR CIGS ARE ANTICIPATED NORTH
OF HUL BY LATE MORNING. MVFR CIGS WILL ROLL INTO BGR AND BHB BY
LATE SUNDAY.

SHORT TERM: IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. IFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: ALLOWED THE FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY TO EXPIRE. THERE
WILL STILL BE AREAS OF LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY INTO THIS AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM: FOR SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE USED THE NAM12. FOR WAVES:
SOUTHWEST WIND WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO DOMINATE SUNDAY NIGHT THEN
TRANSITION TO LONG PERIOD SWELL AS AN OFF-SHORE FETCH DEVELOPS
MONDAY. OFF SHORE WIND WAVE WILL PERSIST MONDAY THEN SUBSIDE
MONDAY NIGHT. WILL USE THE NEAR SHORE WAVE MODEL FOR WAVE HEIGHTS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THIS FEBRUARY WILL END AS THE ALL-TIME COLDEST MONTH ON RECORD AT
BANGOR...AND THE COLDEST FEBRUARY AT CARIBOU. MORE INFORMATION ON
THE COLD FEBRUARY IS AVAILABLE ON THE NEWS HEADLINES ON THE TOP OF
OUR WEB PAGE AT WEATHER.GOV/CAR
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CB/MCW
SHORT TERM...MIGNONE
LONG TERM...MIGNONE
AVIATION...CB/MCW/MIGNONE
MARINE...CB/MCW/MIGNONE
CLIMATE...CB



000
FXUS61 KCAR 281714
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1214 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. LOW
PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY FROM
THE WEST. ANOTHER LOW WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1213 PM UPDATE...THE STRONG LATE FEB SUNSHINE IS AGAIN WORKING
WONDERS. THE STRONG LOW LEVEL INVERSIONS HAVE BROKEN AND TEMPS
HAVE REBOUNDED VERY CLOSE TO FORECAST HIGHS IN MANY AREAS. WILL
NEED TO RAISE THE HIGH TEMPS 3 TO 6 DEGREES MOST AREAS. OTHERWISE
THE ONGOING FORECAST IS IN GREAT SHAPE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGS SUNNY SKIES AND HIGHS IN THE 20S
FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. SUNDAY WILL BE THE WARMER DAY WITH HIGHS
EDGING TOWARDS 30F FOR BANGOR AND THE DOWN EAST REGION BUT CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW.

LOWS ON SATURDAY NIGHT WILL AGAIN HAVE LARGE SPATIAL VARIABILITY
DUE TO A DEEP AND SHALLOW RADIATIONAL INVERSION THAT WILL ALLOW
DECOUPLING IN SHELTERED LOCATIONS NORTH AS WELL AS MOST OF THE
DOWN EAST REGION. TEMPERATURES COULD DROP TO AROUND -10 TO -12F
WHERE WINDS GO CALM. THESE READINGS WILL BE A BIT WARMER THAN
THOSE REGISTERED FRIDAY NIGHT AS WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES.
STEADY SOUTHWEST WINDS ON THE NORTH SIDE OF A 1040MB HIGH ARE MOST
LIKELY TOWARDS THE CROWN OF MAINE WHILE CALM WINDS BY DAWN ARE
MORE LIKELY IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. IN TERMS OF
GUIDANCE...HAVE LEANED TOWARDS SOLUTIONS INDICATED BY THE BIAS-
CORRECTED NAM/GFS/MOS WITH THE COLDER TEMPERATURES IN THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE DECOUPLING AND A DEEPER INVERSION
ARE MOST LIKELY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST LATE SUNDAY THEN
CROSS THE STATE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. THE LOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO
INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES AWAY TO THE EAST... ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA
DURING THE DAY MONDAY. WILL USE A BLEND OF THE NAM... GFS AND
ECMWF FOR POPS... QPF AND SKY CONDITIONS. FOR SNOW AMOUNTS WILL
USE THE OFFICE SNOW FROM THICKNESS TOOL. WILL USE THE SUPER BLEND
FOR THE TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY MONDAY NIGHT AS IT MOVES
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE MARITIMES. AT THE SAME TIME STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE MID WEST. THE JUXTAPOSITION
OF THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL RESULT IN A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE STATE MONDAY NIGHT. WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED
TO DIMINISH TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER THE REGION DURING
THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE
SOUTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT THEN MOVE JUST TO THE WEST OR ACROSS THE
STATE WEDNESDAY. THE EXACT TRACK OF THE SYSTEM WILL DETERMINE
PRECIPITATION TYPE ACROSS THE AREA. RAIN OR SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN
IS POSSIBLE SOUTH WITH SNOW OR SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN NORTH. MORE
COLD AIR IS EXPECTED TO RETURN THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR UNTIL SUNDAY WHEN MVFR CIGS ARE ANTICIPATED NORTH
OF HUL BY LATE MORNING. MVFR CIGS WILL ROLL INTO BGR AND BHB BY
LATE SUNDAY.

SHORT TERM: IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. IFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: ALLOWED THE FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY TO EXPIRE. THERE
WILL STILL BE AREAS OF LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY INTO THIS AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM: FOR SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE USED THE NAM12. FOR WAVES:
SOUTHWEST WIND WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO DOMINATE SUNDAY NIGHT THEN
TRANSITION TO LONG PERIOD SWELL AS AN OFF-SHORE FETCH DEVELOPS
MONDAY. OFF SHORE WIND WAVE WILL PERSIST MONDAY THEN SUBSIDE
MONDAY NIGHT. WILL USE THE NEAR SHORE WAVE MODEL FOR WAVE HEIGHTS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THIS FEBRUARY WILL END AS THE ALL-TIME COLDEST MONTH ON RECORD AT
BANGOR...AND THE COLDEST FEBRUARY AT CARIBOU. MORE INFORMATION ON
THE COLD FEBRUARY IS AVAILABLE ON THE NEWS HEADLINES ON THE TOP OF
OUR WEB PAGE AT WEATHER.GOV/CAR
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CB/MCW
SHORT TERM...MIGNONE
LONG TERM...MIGNONE
AVIATION...CB/MCW/MIGNONE
MARINE...CB/MCW/MIGNONE
CLIMATE...CB



000
FXUS61 KCAR 281714
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1214 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. LOW
PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY FROM
THE WEST. ANOTHER LOW WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1213 PM UPDATE...THE STRONG LATE FEB SUNSHINE IS AGAIN WORKING
WONDERS. THE STRONG LOW LEVEL INVERSIONS HAVE BROKEN AND TEMPS
HAVE REBOUNDED VERY CLOSE TO FORECAST HIGHS IN MANY AREAS. WILL
NEED TO RAISE THE HIGH TEMPS 3 TO 6 DEGREES MOST AREAS. OTHERWISE
THE ONGOING FORECAST IS IN GREAT SHAPE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGS SUNNY SKIES AND HIGHS IN THE 20S
FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. SUNDAY WILL BE THE WARMER DAY WITH HIGHS
EDGING TOWARDS 30F FOR BANGOR AND THE DOWN EAST REGION BUT CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW.

LOWS ON SATURDAY NIGHT WILL AGAIN HAVE LARGE SPATIAL VARIABILITY
DUE TO A DEEP AND SHALLOW RADIATIONAL INVERSION THAT WILL ALLOW
DECOUPLING IN SHELTERED LOCATIONS NORTH AS WELL AS MOST OF THE
DOWN EAST REGION. TEMPERATURES COULD DROP TO AROUND -10 TO -12F
WHERE WINDS GO CALM. THESE READINGS WILL BE A BIT WARMER THAN
THOSE REGISTERED FRIDAY NIGHT AS WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES.
STEADY SOUTHWEST WINDS ON THE NORTH SIDE OF A 1040MB HIGH ARE MOST
LIKELY TOWARDS THE CROWN OF MAINE WHILE CALM WINDS BY DAWN ARE
MORE LIKELY IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. IN TERMS OF
GUIDANCE...HAVE LEANED TOWARDS SOLUTIONS INDICATED BY THE BIAS-
CORRECTED NAM/GFS/MOS WITH THE COLDER TEMPERATURES IN THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE DECOUPLING AND A DEEPER INVERSION
ARE MOST LIKELY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST LATE SUNDAY THEN
CROSS THE STATE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. THE LOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO
INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES AWAY TO THE EAST... ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA
DURING THE DAY MONDAY. WILL USE A BLEND OF THE NAM... GFS AND
ECMWF FOR POPS... QPF AND SKY CONDITIONS. FOR SNOW AMOUNTS WILL
USE THE OFFICE SNOW FROM THICKNESS TOOL. WILL USE THE SUPER BLEND
FOR THE TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY MONDAY NIGHT AS IT MOVES
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE MARITIMES. AT THE SAME TIME STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE MID WEST. THE JUXTAPOSITION
OF THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL RESULT IN A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE STATE MONDAY NIGHT. WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED
TO DIMINISH TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER THE REGION DURING
THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE
SOUTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT THEN MOVE JUST TO THE WEST OR ACROSS THE
STATE WEDNESDAY. THE EXACT TRACK OF THE SYSTEM WILL DETERMINE
PRECIPITATION TYPE ACROSS THE AREA. RAIN OR SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN
IS POSSIBLE SOUTH WITH SNOW OR SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN NORTH. MORE
COLD AIR IS EXPECTED TO RETURN THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR UNTIL SUNDAY WHEN MVFR CIGS ARE ANTICIPATED NORTH
OF HUL BY LATE MORNING. MVFR CIGS WILL ROLL INTO BGR AND BHB BY
LATE SUNDAY.

SHORT TERM: IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. IFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: ALLOWED THE FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY TO EXPIRE. THERE
WILL STILL BE AREAS OF LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY INTO THIS AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM: FOR SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE USED THE NAM12. FOR WAVES:
SOUTHWEST WIND WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO DOMINATE SUNDAY NIGHT THEN
TRANSITION TO LONG PERIOD SWELL AS AN OFF-SHORE FETCH DEVELOPS
MONDAY. OFF SHORE WIND WAVE WILL PERSIST MONDAY THEN SUBSIDE
MONDAY NIGHT. WILL USE THE NEAR SHORE WAVE MODEL FOR WAVE HEIGHTS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THIS FEBRUARY WILL END AS THE ALL-TIME COLDEST MONTH ON RECORD AT
BANGOR...AND THE COLDEST FEBRUARY AT CARIBOU. MORE INFORMATION ON
THE COLD FEBRUARY IS AVAILABLE ON THE NEWS HEADLINES ON THE TOP OF
OUR WEB PAGE AT WEATHER.GOV/CAR
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CB/MCW
SHORT TERM...MIGNONE
LONG TERM...MIGNONE
AVIATION...CB/MCW/MIGNONE
MARINE...CB/MCW/MIGNONE
CLIMATE...CB




000
FXUS61 KGYX 281703
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1203 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY AND WILL SHIFT
OFFSHORE SUNDAY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT...PRODUCING SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW...BEFORE MOVING INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE GREAT
LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT AND WILL TRACK NORTHEAST THROUGH THE ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY...BRINGING A ROUND OF MIXED
PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA. A COLD FRONT FOLLOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS AND CONDITIONS. -7
DEGREES IN PORTLAND LAST NIGHT WAS VERY CLOSE TO THE ALL-TIME
RECORD LOW OF -9. EXPECT TO FORECAST BELOW MODEL GUIDANCE AGAIN
TONIGHT FOR THE MIN TEMPERATURES.

RAISED MAX TEMPS BY A COUPLE DEGREES AS THE EXTREMELY DRY AIRMASS
CONTINUES TO ALLOW FOR SIGNIFICANT DIURNAL RANGES.

HAVE LOWERED THE FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY WITH THIS PACKAGE.

PREV DISC...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST
TODAY PROVIDING SUNNY SKIES AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S NORTH AND MID TO UPPER 20S
SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING WILL AGAIN SEND TEMPS WELL BELOW NORMAL BUT NOT QUITE AS COLD
AS FRIDAY NIGHT. COLDER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS WILL BOTTOM OUT BETWEEN
5 AND 15 BELOW. TEMPERATURES IN THE SOUTH WILL BE BETWEEN 5 ABOVE
AND 5 BELOW. EXPECT SOME HIGH CLOUDS TO FILTER IN FROM THE WEST
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST
AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. HAVE GONE WITH LOW
CHANCE POPS FOR SOUTHWEST ZONES FOR LATE IN THE DAY BUT EXPECT ANY
SNOW SHOWERS TO BE LIGHT AND SPOTTY. HIGH TEMPS WILL CONTINUE
BELOW NORMAL WITH READINGS RANGING THROUGH THE 20S TO NEAR 30.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
500 MB PATTERN IN THE EXTENDED LOOKS TO REMAIN MOSTLY UNCHANGED
THROUGH THE EXTENDED ALTHOUGH STARTING TO SEE SOME SEASONAL
SHIFTING OF THE JET BACK TOWARD THE POLE. ALSO...SOME WEAKEN IN
BOTH THE UPSTREAM AND DOWNSTREAM BLOCKS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME MORE
COMPACT AND PROGRESSIVE WAVES TO DEVELOP WHICH SHOULD HELP
TRANSPORT SOME WARMER INTO THE NERN CONUS...AT LEAST FOR SHORT
PERIODS.

FIRST ON THE AGENDA IS THE FAST MOVING WAVE THAT SWINGS SE OUT OF
THE CANSDI9AN PRAIRIE AND THEN SHIFTS INTO NEW ENGLAND BEFORE
SHOWING A BIT OF A NEGATIVE TILT. LOOKS LIKE THE ENERGY GET S INTO
THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH TO LATE TO DEEPEN THE SFC LOW UNTIL IT IS
TO OUR EAST...AND SO WE WILL SOME SNOW LATE SUNDAY AND MAINLY
SUNDAY NIGHT. QPF LOOKS TO COME IN THE AROUND 0.20-0.25" FAIRLY
EVENLY ACROSS THE CWA...AND THIS SHOULD GENERALLY TRANSLATE TO
2-4" OF SNOW GIVEN SNOWFALL RATIOS OF ROUGHLY 10-15 TO 1. HIGHEST
AMTS LOOK TO BE IN THE SRN THIRD OF NH...WITH LOWEST AMTS IN
INTERIOR CENTRAL ME.  SNOW SHOULD WIND DOWN IN MOST PLACES BY
12Z...WITH WEST WINDS PICKING UP BY MIDDAY AND TEMPS RISING INTO
THE LOW-MID 30S NEAR THE COAST AND IN SRN NH...AND IN THE MID-
UPPER 30S IN THE NORTH. COLD AIR FILTERS IN MON NIGHT WITH LOWS
DROPPING BACK DOWN BETWEEN -5 AND +10 F. TUE WILL BE A LITTLE
COLDER AS LIGHT FLOW BECOMES MORE ONSHORE AND CLOUDS ROLL IN FROM
THE NEXT APPROACHING FROM THE SW.

THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL FEATURE A 500MB CLOSED LOW WELL TO OUR NW
AND A FEW WEAK WAVES ROTATING AROUND IT AND GRADUALLY FLATTENING
OUT THE RIDGE UNTIL THE KICKER WAVE COME THRU ON THU. THIS WILL
KEEP THINGS UNSETTLED FROM TUE NIGHT INTO THE THU...ALTHOUGH THE
HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP OCCURRING FOR NOW TUE NIGHT INTO WED
MORNING. IT WILL START OUT AS SNOW...BUT IT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
DECENT SW FLOW ALOFT...AND MAIN CHUNK OF HIGH SHIFTS OFF TO THE
EAST AND DOES NOT ENTRENCH ITSELF TO THE NE. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
THE WARN AIR TO MOVE IN FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE SFC. THE QUESTION IS
HOW LONG DOES THE COLD AIR DAM AT THE SFC HOLD ON...GIVEN THE DEEP
SNOWPACK. MODELS ARE PROBABLY OVERDOING THE WARM TO SOME DEGREE.
HAVE INCLUDED FZRA IN THE MIX ON WED. STILL SYSTEM IS FAIRLY
PROGRESSIVE AND QPFS GENERALLY LOOK TO BE IN THE HALF INCH
BALLPARK...SO NOT A BIG EVENT FOR NOW.

MODELS DO WANT TO STALL THE FRONT JUST TO OR S WED NIGHT INTO
THU...AND THEN DEVELOP A WAVE ALONG THE FRONT. FOR NOW MODELS
GENERALLY AGREE THAT MOST OF ANY PRECIP STAYS TO OUR S...BUT HAVE
KEPT THE CHC POPS IN THE FORECAST TO COVER THIS POSSIBILITY.
COLDER HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN FOR FRI.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. AREAS OF MVFR CIGS
DEVELOPING LATE SUNDAY.

LONG TERM...WILL LKLY SEE IFR CIGS/VIS IN SN FOR A GOOD CHUNK OF
SUN NIGHT AT ALL TERMINALS...BUT SHOULD SEE RAPID IMPROVEMENT OT
VFR FORM SW TO NE DURING MON MORNING /EXCEPT KHIE WHICH WILL SEE
OCCNL MVFR-IFR IN SHSN THRU MON AFTERNOON. VFR HOLDS MON NIGHT AND
TUE BEFORE ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES IN TUE AND WILL PRODUCE FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY THROUGH LATE MORNING.

LONG TERM...EXPECT TO NEED AN SCA MONDAY AFT INTO MON NIGHT IN W
FLOW. MAY NEED GALES FOR A PERIOD LATE MON AND MON
EVENING...BEFORE WINDS DIMINISH LATE MON NIGHT. SCA MAY BE NEEDED
AGAIN IN SW FLOW LATE TUE NIGH AND WED.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KGYX 281434
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
934 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY AND WILL SHIFT
OFFSHORE SUNDAY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT...PRODUCING SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW...BEFORE MOVING INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE GREAT
LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT AND WILL TRACK NORTHEAST THROUGH THE ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY...BRINGING A ROUND OF MIXED
PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA. A COLD FRONT FOLLOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS AND CONDITIONS. -7
DEGREES IN PORTLAND LAST NIGHT WAS VERY CLOSE TO THE ALL-TIME
RECORD LOW OF -9. EXPECT TO FORECAST BELOW MODEL GUIDANCE AGAIN
TONIGHT FOR THE MIN TEMPERATURES.

SUNNY FOR THE REST OF TODAY...WITH LIGHT WINDS. FREEZING SPRAY
ADVISORY WILL END SHORTLY.

PREV DISC...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST
TODAY PROVIDING SUNNY SKIES AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S NORTH AND MID TO UPPER 20S
SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING WILL AGAIN SEND TEMPS WELL BELOW NORMAL BUT NOT QUITE AS COLD
AS FRIDAY NIGHT. COLDER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS WILL BOTTOM OUT BETWEEN
5 AND 15 BELOW. TEMPERATURES IN THE SOUTH WILL BE BETWEEN 5 ABOVE
AND 5 BELOW. EXPECT SOME HIGH CLOUDS TO FILTER IN FROM THE WEST
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST
AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. HAVE GONE WITH LOW
CHANCE POPS FOR SOUTHWEST ZONES FOR LATE IN THE DAY BUT EXPECT ANY
SNOW SHOWERS TO BE LIGHT AND SPOTTY. HIGH TEMPS WILL CONTINUE
BELOW NORMAL WITH READINGS RANGING THROUGH THE 20S TO NEAR 30.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
500 MB PATTERN IN THE EXTENDED LOOKS TO REMAIN MOSTLY UNCHANGED
THROUGH THE EXTENDED ALTHOUGH STARTING TO SEE SOME SEASONAL
SHIFTING OF THE JET BACK TOWARD THE POLE. ALSO...SOME WEAKEN IN
BOTH THE UPSTREAM AND DOWNSTREAM BLOCKS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME MORE
COMPACT AND PROGRESSIVE WAVES TO DEVELOP WHICH SHOULD HELP
TRANSPORT SOME WARMER INTO THE NERN CONUS...AT LEAST FOR SHORT
PERIODS.

FIRST ON THE AGENDA IS THE FAST MOVING WAVE THAT SWINGS SE OUT OF
THE CANSDI9AN PRAIRIE AND THEN SHIFTS INTO NEW ENGLAND BEFORE
SHOWING A BIT OF A NEGATIVE TILT. LOOKS LIKE THE ENERGY GET S INTO
THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH TO LATE TO DEEPEN THE SFC LOW UNTIL IT IS
TO OUR EAST...AND SO WE WILL SOME SNOW LATE SUNDAY AND MAINLY
SUNDAY NIGHT. QPF LOOKS TO COME IN THE AROUND 0.20-0.25" FAIRLY
EVENLY ACROSS THE CWA...AND THIS SHOULD GENERALLY TRANSLATE TO
2-4" OF SNOW GIVEN SNOWFALL RATIOS OF ROUGHLY 10-15 TO 1. HIGHEST
AMTS LOOK TO BE IN THE SRN THIRD OF NH...WITH LOWEST AMTS IN
INTERIOR CENTRAL ME.  SNOW SHOULD WIND DOWN IN MOST PLACES BY
12Z...WITH WEST WINDS PICKING UP BY MIDDAY AND TEMPS RISING INTO
THE LOW-MID 30S NEAR THE COAST AND IN SRN NH...AND IN THE MID-
UPPER 30S IN THE NORTH. COLD AIR FILTERS IN MON NIGHT WITH LOWS
DROPPING BACK DOWN BETWEEN -5 AND +10 F. TUE WILL BE A LITTLE
COLDER AS LIGHT FLOW BECOMES MORE ONSHORE AND CLOUDS ROLL IN FROM
THE NEXT APPROACHING FROM THE SW.

THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL FEATURE A 500MB CLOSED LOW WELL TO OUR NW
AND A FEW WEAK WAVES ROTATING AROUND IT AND GRADUALLY FLATTENING
OUT THE RIDGE UNTIL THE KICKER WAVE COME THRU ON THU. THIS WILL
KEEP THINGS UNSETTLED FROM TUE NIGHT INTO THE THU...ALTHOUGH THE
HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP OCCURRING FOR NOW TUE NIGHT INTO WED
MORNING. IT WILL START OUT AS SNOW...BUT IT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
DECENT SW FLOW ALOFT...AND MAIN CHUNK OF HIGH SHIFTS OFF TO THE
EAST AND DOES NOT ENTRENCH ITSELF TO THE NE. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
THE WARN AIR TO MOVE IN FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE SFC. THE QUESTION IS
HOW LONG DOES THE COLD AIR DAM AT THE SFC HOLD ON...GIVEN THE DEEP
SNOWPACK. MODELS ARE PROBABLY OVERDOING THE WARM TO SOME DEGREE.
HAVE INCLUDED FZRA IN THE MIX ON WED. STILL SYSTEM IS FAIRLY
PROGRESSIVE AND QPFS GENERALLY LOOK TO BE IN THE HALF INCH
BALLPARK...SO NOT A BIG EVENT FOR NOW.

MODELS DO WANT TO STALL THE FRONT JUST TO OR S WED NIGHT INTO
THU...AND THEN DEVELOP A WAVE ALONG THE FRONT. FOR NOW MODELS
GENERALLY AGREE THAT MOST OF ANY PRECIP STAYS TO OUR S...BUT HAVE
KEPT THE CHC POPS IN THE FORECAST TO COVER THIS POSSIBILITY.
COLDER HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN FOR FRI.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. AREAS OF MVFR CIGS
DEVELOPING LATE SUNDAY.

LONG TERM...WILL LKLY SEE IFR CIGS/VIS IN SN FOR A GOOD CHUNK OF
SUN NIGHT AT ALL TERMINALS...BUT SHOULD SEE RAPID IMPROVEMENT OT
VFR FORM SW TO NE DURING MON MORNING /EXCEPT KHIE WHICH WILL SEE
OCCNL MVFR-IFR IN SHSN THRU MON AFTERNOON. VFR HOLDS MON NIGHT AND
TUE BEFORE ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES IN TUE AND WILL PRODUCE FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY THROUGH LATE MORNING.

LONG TERM...EXPECT TO NEED AN SCA MONDAY AFT INTO MON NIGHT IN W
FLOW. MAY NEED GALES FOR A PERIOD LATE MON AND MON
EVENING...BEFORE WINDS DIMINISH LATE MON NIGHT. SCA MAY BE NEEDED
AGAIN IN SW FLOW LATE TUE NIGH AND WED.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR ANZ150>152.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KGYX 281434
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
934 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY AND WILL SHIFT
OFFSHORE SUNDAY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT...PRODUCING SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW...BEFORE MOVING INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE GREAT
LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT AND WILL TRACK NORTHEAST THROUGH THE ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY...BRINGING A ROUND OF MIXED
PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA. A COLD FRONT FOLLOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS AND CONDITIONS. -7
DEGREES IN PORTLAND LAST NIGHT WAS VERY CLOSE TO THE ALL-TIME
RECORD LOW OF -9. EXPECT TO FORECAST BELOW MODEL GUIDANCE AGAIN
TONIGHT FOR THE MIN TEMPERATURES.

SUNNY FOR THE REST OF TODAY...WITH LIGHT WINDS. FREEZING SPRAY
ADVISORY WILL END SHORTLY.

PREV DISC...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST
TODAY PROVIDING SUNNY SKIES AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S NORTH AND MID TO UPPER 20S
SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING WILL AGAIN SEND TEMPS WELL BELOW NORMAL BUT NOT QUITE AS COLD
AS FRIDAY NIGHT. COLDER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS WILL BOTTOM OUT BETWEEN
5 AND 15 BELOW. TEMPERATURES IN THE SOUTH WILL BE BETWEEN 5 ABOVE
AND 5 BELOW. EXPECT SOME HIGH CLOUDS TO FILTER IN FROM THE WEST
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST
AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. HAVE GONE WITH LOW
CHANCE POPS FOR SOUTHWEST ZONES FOR LATE IN THE DAY BUT EXPECT ANY
SNOW SHOWERS TO BE LIGHT AND SPOTTY. HIGH TEMPS WILL CONTINUE
BELOW NORMAL WITH READINGS RANGING THROUGH THE 20S TO NEAR 30.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
500 MB PATTERN IN THE EXTENDED LOOKS TO REMAIN MOSTLY UNCHANGED
THROUGH THE EXTENDED ALTHOUGH STARTING TO SEE SOME SEASONAL
SHIFTING OF THE JET BACK TOWARD THE POLE. ALSO...SOME WEAKEN IN
BOTH THE UPSTREAM AND DOWNSTREAM BLOCKS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME MORE
COMPACT AND PROGRESSIVE WAVES TO DEVELOP WHICH SHOULD HELP
TRANSPORT SOME WARMER INTO THE NERN CONUS...AT LEAST FOR SHORT
PERIODS.

FIRST ON THE AGENDA IS THE FAST MOVING WAVE THAT SWINGS SE OUT OF
THE CANSDI9AN PRAIRIE AND THEN SHIFTS INTO NEW ENGLAND BEFORE
SHOWING A BIT OF A NEGATIVE TILT. LOOKS LIKE THE ENERGY GET S INTO
THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH TO LATE TO DEEPEN THE SFC LOW UNTIL IT IS
TO OUR EAST...AND SO WE WILL SOME SNOW LATE SUNDAY AND MAINLY
SUNDAY NIGHT. QPF LOOKS TO COME IN THE AROUND 0.20-0.25" FAIRLY
EVENLY ACROSS THE CWA...AND THIS SHOULD GENERALLY TRANSLATE TO
2-4" OF SNOW GIVEN SNOWFALL RATIOS OF ROUGHLY 10-15 TO 1. HIGHEST
AMTS LOOK TO BE IN THE SRN THIRD OF NH...WITH LOWEST AMTS IN
INTERIOR CENTRAL ME.  SNOW SHOULD WIND DOWN IN MOST PLACES BY
12Z...WITH WEST WINDS PICKING UP BY MIDDAY AND TEMPS RISING INTO
THE LOW-MID 30S NEAR THE COAST AND IN SRN NH...AND IN THE MID-
UPPER 30S IN THE NORTH. COLD AIR FILTERS IN MON NIGHT WITH LOWS
DROPPING BACK DOWN BETWEEN -5 AND +10 F. TUE WILL BE A LITTLE
COLDER AS LIGHT FLOW BECOMES MORE ONSHORE AND CLOUDS ROLL IN FROM
THE NEXT APPROACHING FROM THE SW.

THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL FEATURE A 500MB CLOSED LOW WELL TO OUR NW
AND A FEW WEAK WAVES ROTATING AROUND IT AND GRADUALLY FLATTENING
OUT THE RIDGE UNTIL THE KICKER WAVE COME THRU ON THU. THIS WILL
KEEP THINGS UNSETTLED FROM TUE NIGHT INTO THE THU...ALTHOUGH THE
HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP OCCURRING FOR NOW TUE NIGHT INTO WED
MORNING. IT WILL START OUT AS SNOW...BUT IT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
DECENT SW FLOW ALOFT...AND MAIN CHUNK OF HIGH SHIFTS OFF TO THE
EAST AND DOES NOT ENTRENCH ITSELF TO THE NE. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
THE WARN AIR TO MOVE IN FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE SFC. THE QUESTION IS
HOW LONG DOES THE COLD AIR DAM AT THE SFC HOLD ON...GIVEN THE DEEP
SNOWPACK. MODELS ARE PROBABLY OVERDOING THE WARM TO SOME DEGREE.
HAVE INCLUDED FZRA IN THE MIX ON WED. STILL SYSTEM IS FAIRLY
PROGRESSIVE AND QPFS GENERALLY LOOK TO BE IN THE HALF INCH
BALLPARK...SO NOT A BIG EVENT FOR NOW.

MODELS DO WANT TO STALL THE FRONT JUST TO OR S WED NIGHT INTO
THU...AND THEN DEVELOP A WAVE ALONG THE FRONT. FOR NOW MODELS
GENERALLY AGREE THAT MOST OF ANY PRECIP STAYS TO OUR S...BUT HAVE
KEPT THE CHC POPS IN THE FORECAST TO COVER THIS POSSIBILITY.
COLDER HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN FOR FRI.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. AREAS OF MVFR CIGS
DEVELOPING LATE SUNDAY.

LONG TERM...WILL LKLY SEE IFR CIGS/VIS IN SN FOR A GOOD CHUNK OF
SUN NIGHT AT ALL TERMINALS...BUT SHOULD SEE RAPID IMPROVEMENT OT
VFR FORM SW TO NE DURING MON MORNING /EXCEPT KHIE WHICH WILL SEE
OCCNL MVFR-IFR IN SHSN THRU MON AFTERNOON. VFR HOLDS MON NIGHT AND
TUE BEFORE ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES IN TUE AND WILL PRODUCE FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY THROUGH LATE MORNING.

LONG TERM...EXPECT TO NEED AN SCA MONDAY AFT INTO MON NIGHT IN W
FLOW. MAY NEED GALES FOR A PERIOD LATE MON AND MON
EVENING...BEFORE WINDS DIMINISH LATE MON NIGHT. SCA MAY BE NEEDED
AGAIN IN SW FLOW LATE TUE NIGH AND WED.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR ANZ150>152.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KCAR 281414
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
914 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. LOW
PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY FROM
THE WEST. ANOTHER LOW WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
915 AM...ANOTHER BRIGHT AND SUNNY LATE WINTER DAY. STRONG HIGH
PRES CENTERED OVER NY STATE THIS MORNING WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF
OUR WEATHER TODAY. A SHALLOW INVERSION SHOWED UP NICELY ON THE 12Z
KCAR SOUNDING THAT WILL BE MIXED OUT BY LATE MORNING. THE AIR MASS
IS WARMER ALOFT COMPARED TO YESTERDAY MORNING (2-4C ABOVE THE
INVERSION) AND HIGHS TODAY WILL BE AROUND 5F WARMER THAN YESTERDAY.
THE ONGOING FORECAST IS IN FINE SHAPE AND WILL NOT MAKE ANY
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ATTM.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGS SUNNY SKIES AND HIGHS IN THE 20S
FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. SUNDAY WILL BE THE WARMER DAY WITH HIGHS
EDGING TOWARDS 30F FOR BANGOR AND THE DOWN EAST REGION BUT CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW.

LOWS ON SATURDAY NIGHT WILL AGAIN HAVE LARGE SPATIAL VARIABILITY
DUE TO A DEEP AND SHALLOW RADIATIONAL INVERSION THAT WILL ALLOW
DECOUPLING IN SHELTERED LOCATIONS NORTH AS WELL AS MOST OF THE
DOWN EAST REGION. TEMPERATURES COULD DROP TO AROUND -10 TO -12F
WHERE WINDS GO CALM. THESE READINGS WILL BE A BIT WARMER THAN
THOSE REGISTERED FRIDAY NIGHT AS WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES.
STEADY SOUTHWEST WINDS ON THE NORTH SIDE OF A 1040MB HIGH ARE MOST
LIKELY TOWARDS THE CROWN OF MAINE WHILE CALM WINDS BY DAWN ARE
MORE LIKELY IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. IN TERMS OF
GUIDANCE...HAVE LEANED TOWARDS SOLUTIONS INDICATED BY THE BIAS-
CORRECTED NAM/GFS/MOS WITH THE COLDER TEMPERATURES IN THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE DECOUPLING AND A DEEPER INVERSION
ARE MOST LIKELY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST LATE SUNDAY THEN
CROSS THE STATE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. THE LOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO
INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES AWAY TO THE EAST... ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA
DURING THE DAY MONDAY. WILL USE A BLEND OF THE NAM... GFS AND
ECMWF FOR POPS... QPF AND SKY CONDITIONS. FOR SNOW AMOUNTS WILL
USE THE OFFICE SNOW FROM THICKNESS TOOL. WILL USE THE SUPER BLEND
FOR THE TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY MONDAY NIGHT AS IT MOVES
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE MARITIMES. AT THE SAME TIME STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE MID WEST. THE JUXTAPOSITION
OF THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL RESULT IN A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE STATE MONDAY NIGHT. WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED
TO DIMINISH TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER THE REGION DURING
THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE
SOUTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT THEN MOVE JUST TO THE WEST OR ACROSS THE
STATE WEDNESDAY. THE EXACT TRACK OF THE SYSTEM WILL DETERMINE
PRECIPITATION TYPE ACROSS THE AREA. RAIN OR SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN
IS POSSIBLE SOUTH WITH SNOW OR SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN NORTH. MORE
COLD AIR IS EXPECTED TO RETURN THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR UNTIL SUNDAY WHEN MVFR CIGS ARE ANTICIPATED NORTH
OF HUL BY LATE MORNING. MVFR CIGS WILL ROLL INTO BGR AND BHB BY
LATE SUNDAY.

SHORT TERM: IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. IFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: ALLOWED THE FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY TO EXPIRE. THERE
WILL STILL BE AREAS OF LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY INTO THIS AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM: FOR SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE USED THE NAM12. FOR WAVES:
SOUTHWEST WIND WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO DOMINATE SUNDAY NIGHT THEN
TRANSITION TO LONG PERIOD SWELL AS AN OFF-SHORE FETCH DEVELOPS
MONDAY. OFF SHORE WIND WAVE WILL PERSIST MONDAY THEN SUBSIDE
MONDAY NIGHT. WILL USE THE NEAR SHORE WAVE MODEL FOR WAVE HEIGHTS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THIS FEBRUARY WILL END AS THE ALL-TIME COLDEST MONTH ON RECORD AT
BANGOR...AND THE COLDEST FEBRUARY AT CARIBOU. MORE INFORMATION ON
THE COLD FEBRUARY IS AVAILABLE ON THE NEWS HEADLINES ON THE TOP OF
OUR WEB PAGE AT WEATHER.GOV/CAR

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CB/MCW
SHORT TERM...MIGNONE
LONG TERM...MIGNONE
AVIATION...CB/MCW/MIGNONE
MARINE...CB/MCW/MIGNONE
CLIMATE...CB



000
FXUS61 KCAR 281414
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
914 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. LOW
PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY FROM
THE WEST. ANOTHER LOW WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
915 AM...ANOTHER BRIGHT AND SUNNY LATE WINTER DAY. STRONG HIGH
PRES CENTERED OVER NY STATE THIS MORNING WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF
OUR WEATHER TODAY. A SHALLOW INVERSION SHOWED UP NICELY ON THE 12Z
KCAR SOUNDING THAT WILL BE MIXED OUT BY LATE MORNING. THE AIR MASS
IS WARMER ALOFT COMPARED TO YESTERDAY MORNING (2-4C ABOVE THE
INVERSION) AND HIGHS TODAY WILL BE AROUND 5F WARMER THAN YESTERDAY.
THE ONGOING FORECAST IS IN FINE SHAPE AND WILL NOT MAKE ANY
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ATTM.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGS SUNNY SKIES AND HIGHS IN THE 20S
FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. SUNDAY WILL BE THE WARMER DAY WITH HIGHS
EDGING TOWARDS 30F FOR BANGOR AND THE DOWN EAST REGION BUT CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW.

LOWS ON SATURDAY NIGHT WILL AGAIN HAVE LARGE SPATIAL VARIABILITY
DUE TO A DEEP AND SHALLOW RADIATIONAL INVERSION THAT WILL ALLOW
DECOUPLING IN SHELTERED LOCATIONS NORTH AS WELL AS MOST OF THE
DOWN EAST REGION. TEMPERATURES COULD DROP TO AROUND -10 TO -12F
WHERE WINDS GO CALM. THESE READINGS WILL BE A BIT WARMER THAN
THOSE REGISTERED FRIDAY NIGHT AS WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES.
STEADY SOUTHWEST WINDS ON THE NORTH SIDE OF A 1040MB HIGH ARE MOST
LIKELY TOWARDS THE CROWN OF MAINE WHILE CALM WINDS BY DAWN ARE
MORE LIKELY IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. IN TERMS OF
GUIDANCE...HAVE LEANED TOWARDS SOLUTIONS INDICATED BY THE BIAS-
CORRECTED NAM/GFS/MOS WITH THE COLDER TEMPERATURES IN THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE DECOUPLING AND A DEEPER INVERSION
ARE MOST LIKELY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST LATE SUNDAY THEN
CROSS THE STATE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. THE LOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO
INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES AWAY TO THE EAST... ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA
DURING THE DAY MONDAY. WILL USE A BLEND OF THE NAM... GFS AND
ECMWF FOR POPS... QPF AND SKY CONDITIONS. FOR SNOW AMOUNTS WILL
USE THE OFFICE SNOW FROM THICKNESS TOOL. WILL USE THE SUPER BLEND
FOR THE TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY MONDAY NIGHT AS IT MOVES
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE MARITIMES. AT THE SAME TIME STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE MID WEST. THE JUXTAPOSITION
OF THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL RESULT IN A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE STATE MONDAY NIGHT. WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED
TO DIMINISH TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER THE REGION DURING
THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE
SOUTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT THEN MOVE JUST TO THE WEST OR ACROSS THE
STATE WEDNESDAY. THE EXACT TRACK OF THE SYSTEM WILL DETERMINE
PRECIPITATION TYPE ACROSS THE AREA. RAIN OR SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN
IS POSSIBLE SOUTH WITH SNOW OR SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN NORTH. MORE
COLD AIR IS EXPECTED TO RETURN THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR UNTIL SUNDAY WHEN MVFR CIGS ARE ANTICIPATED NORTH
OF HUL BY LATE MORNING. MVFR CIGS WILL ROLL INTO BGR AND BHB BY
LATE SUNDAY.

SHORT TERM: IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. IFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: ALLOWED THE FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY TO EXPIRE. THERE
WILL STILL BE AREAS OF LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY INTO THIS AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM: FOR SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE USED THE NAM12. FOR WAVES:
SOUTHWEST WIND WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO DOMINATE SUNDAY NIGHT THEN
TRANSITION TO LONG PERIOD SWELL AS AN OFF-SHORE FETCH DEVELOPS
MONDAY. OFF SHORE WIND WAVE WILL PERSIST MONDAY THEN SUBSIDE
MONDAY NIGHT. WILL USE THE NEAR SHORE WAVE MODEL FOR WAVE HEIGHTS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THIS FEBRUARY WILL END AS THE ALL-TIME COLDEST MONTH ON RECORD AT
BANGOR...AND THE COLDEST FEBRUARY AT CARIBOU. MORE INFORMATION ON
THE COLD FEBRUARY IS AVAILABLE ON THE NEWS HEADLINES ON THE TOP OF
OUR WEB PAGE AT WEATHER.GOV/CAR

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CB/MCW
SHORT TERM...MIGNONE
LONG TERM...MIGNONE
AVIATION...CB/MCW/MIGNONE
MARINE...CB/MCW/MIGNONE
CLIMATE...CB




000
FXUS61 KCAR 281414
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
914 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. LOW
PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY FROM
THE WEST. ANOTHER LOW WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
915 AM...ANOTHER BRIGHT AND SUNNY LATE WINTER DAY. STRONG HIGH
PRES CENTERED OVER NY STATE THIS MORNING WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF
OUR WEATHER TODAY. A SHALLOW INVERSION SHOWED UP NICELY ON THE 12Z
KCAR SOUNDING THAT WILL BE MIXED OUT BY LATE MORNING. THE AIR MASS
IS WARMER ALOFT COMPARED TO YESTERDAY MORNING (2-4C ABOVE THE
INVERSION) AND HIGHS TODAY WILL BE AROUND 5F WARMER THAN YESTERDAY.
THE ONGOING FORECAST IS IN FINE SHAPE AND WILL NOT MAKE ANY
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ATTM.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGS SUNNY SKIES AND HIGHS IN THE 20S
FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. SUNDAY WILL BE THE WARMER DAY WITH HIGHS
EDGING TOWARDS 30F FOR BANGOR AND THE DOWN EAST REGION BUT CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW.

LOWS ON SATURDAY NIGHT WILL AGAIN HAVE LARGE SPATIAL VARIABILITY
DUE TO A DEEP AND SHALLOW RADIATIONAL INVERSION THAT WILL ALLOW
DECOUPLING IN SHELTERED LOCATIONS NORTH AS WELL AS MOST OF THE
DOWN EAST REGION. TEMPERATURES COULD DROP TO AROUND -10 TO -12F
WHERE WINDS GO CALM. THESE READINGS WILL BE A BIT WARMER THAN
THOSE REGISTERED FRIDAY NIGHT AS WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES.
STEADY SOUTHWEST WINDS ON THE NORTH SIDE OF A 1040MB HIGH ARE MOST
LIKELY TOWARDS THE CROWN OF MAINE WHILE CALM WINDS BY DAWN ARE
MORE LIKELY IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. IN TERMS OF
GUIDANCE...HAVE LEANED TOWARDS SOLUTIONS INDICATED BY THE BIAS-
CORRECTED NAM/GFS/MOS WITH THE COLDER TEMPERATURES IN THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE DECOUPLING AND A DEEPER INVERSION
ARE MOST LIKELY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST LATE SUNDAY THEN
CROSS THE STATE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. THE LOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO
INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES AWAY TO THE EAST... ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA
DURING THE DAY MONDAY. WILL USE A BLEND OF THE NAM... GFS AND
ECMWF FOR POPS... QPF AND SKY CONDITIONS. FOR SNOW AMOUNTS WILL
USE THE OFFICE SNOW FROM THICKNESS TOOL. WILL USE THE SUPER BLEND
FOR THE TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY MONDAY NIGHT AS IT MOVES
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE MARITIMES. AT THE SAME TIME STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE MID WEST. THE JUXTAPOSITION
OF THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL RESULT IN A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE STATE MONDAY NIGHT. WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED
TO DIMINISH TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER THE REGION DURING
THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE
SOUTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT THEN MOVE JUST TO THE WEST OR ACROSS THE
STATE WEDNESDAY. THE EXACT TRACK OF THE SYSTEM WILL DETERMINE
PRECIPITATION TYPE ACROSS THE AREA. RAIN OR SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN
IS POSSIBLE SOUTH WITH SNOW OR SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN NORTH. MORE
COLD AIR IS EXPECTED TO RETURN THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR UNTIL SUNDAY WHEN MVFR CIGS ARE ANTICIPATED NORTH
OF HUL BY LATE MORNING. MVFR CIGS WILL ROLL INTO BGR AND BHB BY
LATE SUNDAY.

SHORT TERM: IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. IFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: ALLOWED THE FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY TO EXPIRE. THERE
WILL STILL BE AREAS OF LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY INTO THIS AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM: FOR SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE USED THE NAM12. FOR WAVES:
SOUTHWEST WIND WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO DOMINATE SUNDAY NIGHT THEN
TRANSITION TO LONG PERIOD SWELL AS AN OFF-SHORE FETCH DEVELOPS
MONDAY. OFF SHORE WIND WAVE WILL PERSIST MONDAY THEN SUBSIDE
MONDAY NIGHT. WILL USE THE NEAR SHORE WAVE MODEL FOR WAVE HEIGHTS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THIS FEBRUARY WILL END AS THE ALL-TIME COLDEST MONTH ON RECORD AT
BANGOR...AND THE COLDEST FEBRUARY AT CARIBOU. MORE INFORMATION ON
THE COLD FEBRUARY IS AVAILABLE ON THE NEWS HEADLINES ON THE TOP OF
OUR WEB PAGE AT WEATHER.GOV/CAR

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CB/MCW
SHORT TERM...MIGNONE
LONG TERM...MIGNONE
AVIATION...CB/MCW/MIGNONE
MARINE...CB/MCW/MIGNONE
CLIMATE...CB




000
FXUS61 KCAR 281414
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
914 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. LOW
PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY FROM
THE WEST. ANOTHER LOW WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
915 AM...ANOTHER BRIGHT AND SUNNY LATE WINTER DAY. STRONG HIGH
PRES CENTERED OVER NY STATE THIS MORNING WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF
OUR WEATHER TODAY. A SHALLOW INVERSION SHOWED UP NICELY ON THE 12Z
KCAR SOUNDING THAT WILL BE MIXED OUT BY LATE MORNING. THE AIR MASS
IS WARMER ALOFT COMPARED TO YESTERDAY MORNING (2-4C ABOVE THE
INVERSION) AND HIGHS TODAY WILL BE AROUND 5F WARMER THAN YESTERDAY.
THE ONGOING FORECAST IS IN FINE SHAPE AND WILL NOT MAKE ANY
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ATTM.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGS SUNNY SKIES AND HIGHS IN THE 20S
FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. SUNDAY WILL BE THE WARMER DAY WITH HIGHS
EDGING TOWARDS 30F FOR BANGOR AND THE DOWN EAST REGION BUT CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW.

LOWS ON SATURDAY NIGHT WILL AGAIN HAVE LARGE SPATIAL VARIABILITY
DUE TO A DEEP AND SHALLOW RADIATIONAL INVERSION THAT WILL ALLOW
DECOUPLING IN SHELTERED LOCATIONS NORTH AS WELL AS MOST OF THE
DOWN EAST REGION. TEMPERATURES COULD DROP TO AROUND -10 TO -12F
WHERE WINDS GO CALM. THESE READINGS WILL BE A BIT WARMER THAN
THOSE REGISTERED FRIDAY NIGHT AS WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES.
STEADY SOUTHWEST WINDS ON THE NORTH SIDE OF A 1040MB HIGH ARE MOST
LIKELY TOWARDS THE CROWN OF MAINE WHILE CALM WINDS BY DAWN ARE
MORE LIKELY IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. IN TERMS OF
GUIDANCE...HAVE LEANED TOWARDS SOLUTIONS INDICATED BY THE BIAS-
CORRECTED NAM/GFS/MOS WITH THE COLDER TEMPERATURES IN THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE DECOUPLING AND A DEEPER INVERSION
ARE MOST LIKELY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST LATE SUNDAY THEN
CROSS THE STATE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. THE LOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO
INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES AWAY TO THE EAST... ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA
DURING THE DAY MONDAY. WILL USE A BLEND OF THE NAM... GFS AND
ECMWF FOR POPS... QPF AND SKY CONDITIONS. FOR SNOW AMOUNTS WILL
USE THE OFFICE SNOW FROM THICKNESS TOOL. WILL USE THE SUPER BLEND
FOR THE TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY MONDAY NIGHT AS IT MOVES
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE MARITIMES. AT THE SAME TIME STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE MID WEST. THE JUXTAPOSITION
OF THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL RESULT IN A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE STATE MONDAY NIGHT. WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED
TO DIMINISH TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER THE REGION DURING
THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE
SOUTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT THEN MOVE JUST TO THE WEST OR ACROSS THE
STATE WEDNESDAY. THE EXACT TRACK OF THE SYSTEM WILL DETERMINE
PRECIPITATION TYPE ACROSS THE AREA. RAIN OR SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN
IS POSSIBLE SOUTH WITH SNOW OR SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN NORTH. MORE
COLD AIR IS EXPECTED TO RETURN THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR UNTIL SUNDAY WHEN MVFR CIGS ARE ANTICIPATED NORTH
OF HUL BY LATE MORNING. MVFR CIGS WILL ROLL INTO BGR AND BHB BY
LATE SUNDAY.

SHORT TERM: IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. IFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: ALLOWED THE FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY TO EXPIRE. THERE
WILL STILL BE AREAS OF LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY INTO THIS AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM: FOR SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE USED THE NAM12. FOR WAVES:
SOUTHWEST WIND WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO DOMINATE SUNDAY NIGHT THEN
TRANSITION TO LONG PERIOD SWELL AS AN OFF-SHORE FETCH DEVELOPS
MONDAY. OFF SHORE WIND WAVE WILL PERSIST MONDAY THEN SUBSIDE
MONDAY NIGHT. WILL USE THE NEAR SHORE WAVE MODEL FOR WAVE HEIGHTS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THIS FEBRUARY WILL END AS THE ALL-TIME COLDEST MONTH ON RECORD AT
BANGOR...AND THE COLDEST FEBRUARY AT CARIBOU. MORE INFORMATION ON
THE COLD FEBRUARY IS AVAILABLE ON THE NEWS HEADLINES ON THE TOP OF
OUR WEB PAGE AT WEATHER.GOV/CAR

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CB/MCW
SHORT TERM...MIGNONE
LONG TERM...MIGNONE
AVIATION...CB/MCW/MIGNONE
MARINE...CB/MCW/MIGNONE
CLIMATE...CB



000
FXUS61 KCAR 281119
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
619 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. LOW
PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY FROM
THE WEST. ANOTHER LOW WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
615AM UPDATE...
NO CHANGES TO FORECAST. CURRENT TEMPERATURES HAVE TREMENDOUS
VARIABILITY FROM AS LOW AS 24 BELOW AT MASARDIS TO LOW SINGLE
DIGITS AT HIGHER TERRAIN SITES. AT THESE HIGHER TERRAIN SITES...WINDS
REMAINED STEADY ALL NIGHT AND PREVENTED A DEEP INVERSION.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGS SUNNY SKIES AND HIGHS IN THE 20S
FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. SUNDAY WILL BE THE WARMER DAY WITH HIGHS
EDGING TOWARDS 30F FOR BANGOR AND THE DOWN EAST REGION BUT CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW.

LOWS ON SATURDAY NIGHT WILL AGAIN HAVE LARGE SPATIAL VARIABILITY
DUE TO A DEEP AND SHALLOW RADIATIONAL INVERSION THAT WILL ALLOW
DECOUPLING IN SHELTERED LOCATIONS NORTH AS WELL AS MOST OF THE
DOWN EAST REGION. TEMPERATURES COULD DROP TO AROUND -10 TO -12F
WHERE WINDS GO CALM. THESE READINGS WILL BE A BIT WARMER THAN
THOSE REGISTERED FRIDAY NIGHT AS WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES.
STEADY SOUTHWEST WINDS ON THE NORTH SIDE OF A 1040MB HIGH ARE MOST
LIKELY TOWARDS THE CROWN OF MAINE WHILE CALM WINDS BY DAWN ARE
MORE LIKELY IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. IN TERMS OF
GUIDANCE...HAVE LEANED TOWARDS SOLUTIONS INDICATED BY THE BIAS-
CORRECTED NAM/GFS/MOS WITH THE COLDER TEMPERATURES IN THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE DECOUPLING AND A DEEPER INVERSION
ARE MOST LIKELY.
&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST LATE SUNDAY THEN
CROSS THE STATE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. THE LOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO
INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES AWAY TO THE EAST... ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA
DURING THE DAY MONDAY. WILL USE A BLEND OF THE NAM... GFS AND
ECMWF FOR POPS... QPF AND SKY CONDITIONS. FOR SNOW AMOUNTS WILL
USE THE OFFICE SNOW FROM THICKNESS TOOL. WILL USE THE SUPER BLEND
FOR THE TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINTS.
&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY MONDAY NIGHT AS IT MOVES
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE MARITIMES. AT THE SAME TIME STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE MID WEST. THE JUXTAPOSITION
OF THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL RESULT IN A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE STATE MONDAY NIGHT. WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED
TO DIMINISH TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER THE REGION DURING
THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE
SOUTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT THEN MOVE JUST TO THE WEST OR ACROSS THE
STATE WEDNESDAY. THE EXACT TRACK OF THE SYSTEM WILL DETERMINE
PRECIPITATION TYPE ACROSS THE AREA. RAIN OR SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN
IS POSSIBLE SOUTH WITH SNOW OR SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN NORTH. MORE
COLD AIR IS EXPECTED TO RETURN THURSDAY.
&&

.AVIATION /11Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR UNTIL SUNDAY WHEN MVFR CIGS ARE ANTICIPATED NORTH
OF HUL BY LATE MORNING. MVFR CIGS WILL ROLL INTO BGR AND BHB BY
LATE SUNDAY.

SHORT TERM: IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. IFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT THE FREEZING SPRAY TO TAPER OFF THIS MORNING AND
HAVE LEFT THE END TIME OF THE ADVISORY IN PLACE.

SHORT TERM: FOR SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE USED THE NAM12. FOR WAVES:
SOUTHWEST WIND WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO DOMINATE SUNDAY NIGHT THEN
TRANSITION TO LONG PERIOD SWELL AS AN OFF-SHORE FETCH DEVELOPS
MONDAY. OFF SHORE WIND WAVE WILL PERSIST MONDAY THEN SUBSIDE
MONDAY NIGHT. WILL USE THE NEAR SHORE WAVE MODEL FOR WAVE HEIGHTS.&&

.CLIMATE...
THIS FEBRUARY WILL END AS THE ALL-TIME COLDEST MONTH
ON RECORD AT BANGOR...AND THE COLDEST FEBRUARY AT CARIBOU. MORE
INFORMATION ON THE COLD FEBRUARY IS AVAILABLE ON THE NEWS
HEADLINES ON THE TOP OF OUR WEB PAGE AT WEATHER.GOV/CAR
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ050>052.
&&
$$

NEAR TERM...MCW
SHORT TERM...MIGNONE
LONG TERM...MIGNONE
AVIATION...MCW/MIGNONE
MARINE...MCW/MIGNONE
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KCAR 281119
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
619 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. LOW
PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY FROM
THE WEST. ANOTHER LOW WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
615AM UPDATE...
NO CHANGES TO FORECAST. CURRENT TEMPERATURES HAVE TREMENDOUS
VARIABILITY FROM AS LOW AS 24 BELOW AT MASARDIS TO LOW SINGLE
DIGITS AT HIGHER TERRAIN SITES. AT THESE HIGHER TERRAIN SITES...WINDS
REMAINED STEADY ALL NIGHT AND PREVENTED A DEEP INVERSION.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGS SUNNY SKIES AND HIGHS IN THE 20S
FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. SUNDAY WILL BE THE WARMER DAY WITH HIGHS
EDGING TOWARDS 30F FOR BANGOR AND THE DOWN EAST REGION BUT CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW.

LOWS ON SATURDAY NIGHT WILL AGAIN HAVE LARGE SPATIAL VARIABILITY
DUE TO A DEEP AND SHALLOW RADIATIONAL INVERSION THAT WILL ALLOW
DECOUPLING IN SHELTERED LOCATIONS NORTH AS WELL AS MOST OF THE
DOWN EAST REGION. TEMPERATURES COULD DROP TO AROUND -10 TO -12F
WHERE WINDS GO CALM. THESE READINGS WILL BE A BIT WARMER THAN
THOSE REGISTERED FRIDAY NIGHT AS WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES.
STEADY SOUTHWEST WINDS ON THE NORTH SIDE OF A 1040MB HIGH ARE MOST
LIKELY TOWARDS THE CROWN OF MAINE WHILE CALM WINDS BY DAWN ARE
MORE LIKELY IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. IN TERMS OF
GUIDANCE...HAVE LEANED TOWARDS SOLUTIONS INDICATED BY THE BIAS-
CORRECTED NAM/GFS/MOS WITH THE COLDER TEMPERATURES IN THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE DECOUPLING AND A DEEPER INVERSION
ARE MOST LIKELY.
&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST LATE SUNDAY THEN
CROSS THE STATE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. THE LOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO
INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES AWAY TO THE EAST... ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA
DURING THE DAY MONDAY. WILL USE A BLEND OF THE NAM... GFS AND
ECMWF FOR POPS... QPF AND SKY CONDITIONS. FOR SNOW AMOUNTS WILL
USE THE OFFICE SNOW FROM THICKNESS TOOL. WILL USE THE SUPER BLEND
FOR THE TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINTS.
&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY MONDAY NIGHT AS IT MOVES
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE MARITIMES. AT THE SAME TIME STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE MID WEST. THE JUXTAPOSITION
OF THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL RESULT IN A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE STATE MONDAY NIGHT. WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED
TO DIMINISH TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER THE REGION DURING
THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE
SOUTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT THEN MOVE JUST TO THE WEST OR ACROSS THE
STATE WEDNESDAY. THE EXACT TRACK OF THE SYSTEM WILL DETERMINE
PRECIPITATION TYPE ACROSS THE AREA. RAIN OR SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN
IS POSSIBLE SOUTH WITH SNOW OR SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN NORTH. MORE
COLD AIR IS EXPECTED TO RETURN THURSDAY.
&&

.AVIATION /11Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR UNTIL SUNDAY WHEN MVFR CIGS ARE ANTICIPATED NORTH
OF HUL BY LATE MORNING. MVFR CIGS WILL ROLL INTO BGR AND BHB BY
LATE SUNDAY.

SHORT TERM: IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. IFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT THE FREEZING SPRAY TO TAPER OFF THIS MORNING AND
HAVE LEFT THE END TIME OF THE ADVISORY IN PLACE.

SHORT TERM: FOR SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE USED THE NAM12. FOR WAVES:
SOUTHWEST WIND WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO DOMINATE SUNDAY NIGHT THEN
TRANSITION TO LONG PERIOD SWELL AS AN OFF-SHORE FETCH DEVELOPS
MONDAY. OFF SHORE WIND WAVE WILL PERSIST MONDAY THEN SUBSIDE
MONDAY NIGHT. WILL USE THE NEAR SHORE WAVE MODEL FOR WAVE HEIGHTS.&&

.CLIMATE...
THIS FEBRUARY WILL END AS THE ALL-TIME COLDEST MONTH
ON RECORD AT BANGOR...AND THE COLDEST FEBRUARY AT CARIBOU. MORE
INFORMATION ON THE COLD FEBRUARY IS AVAILABLE ON THE NEWS
HEADLINES ON THE TOP OF OUR WEB PAGE AT WEATHER.GOV/CAR
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ050>052.
&&
$$

NEAR TERM...MCW
SHORT TERM...MIGNONE
LONG TERM...MIGNONE
AVIATION...MCW/MIGNONE
MARINE...MCW/MIGNONE
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KGYX 280816
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
316 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY AND WILL SHIFT
OFFSHORE SUNDAY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT...PRODUCING SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW...BEFORE MOVING INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE GREAT
LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT AND WILL TRACK NORTHEAST THROUGH THE ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY...BRINGING A ROUND OF MIXED
PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA. A COLD FRONT FOLLOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TODAY
PROVIDING SUNNY SKIES AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS. HIGHS WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S NORTH AND MID TO UPPER 20S
SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING WILL AGAIN SEND TEMPS WELL BELOW NORMAL BUT NOT QUITE AS COLD
AS FRIDAY NIGHT. COLDER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS WILL BOTTOM OUT BETWEEN
5 AND 15 BELOW. TEMPERATURES IN THE SOUTH WILL BE BETWEEN 5 ABOVE
AND 5 BELOW. EXPECT SOME HIGH CLOUDS TO FILTER IN FROM THE WEST
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST
AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. HAVE GONE WITH LOW
CHANCE POPS FOR SOUTHWEST ZONES FOR LATE IN THE DAY BUT EXPECT ANY
SNOW SHOWERS TO BE LIGHT AND SPOTTY. HIGH TEMPS WILL CONTINUE
BELOW NORMAL WITH READINGS RANGING THROUGH THE 20S TO NEAR 30.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
500 MB PATTERN IN THE EXTENDED LOOKS TO REMAIN MOSTLY UNCHANGED
THROUGH THE EXTENDED ALTHOUGH STARTING TO SEE SOME SEASONAL
SHIFTING OF THE JET BACK TOWARD THE POLE. ALSO...SOME WEAKEN IN
BOTH THE UPSTREAM AND DOWNSTREAM BLOCKS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME MORE
COMPACT AND PROGRESSIVE WAVES TO DEVELOP WHICH SHOULD HELP
TRANSPORT SOME WARMER INTO THE NERN CONUS...AT LEAST FOR SHORT
PERIODS.

FIRST ON THE AGENDA IS THE FAST MOVING WAVE THAT SWINGS SE OUT OF
THE CANSDI9AN PRAIRIE AND THEN SHIFTS INTO NEW ENGLAND BEFORE
SHOWING A BIT OF A NEGATIVE TILT. LOOKS LIKE THE ENERGY GET S INTO
THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH TO LATE TO DEEPEN THE SFC LOW UNTIL IT IS
TO OUR EAST...AND SO WE WILL SOME SNOW LATE SUNDAY AND MAINLY
SUNDAY NIGHT. QPF LOOKS TO COME IN THE AROUND 0.20-0.25" FAIRLY
EVENLY ACROSS THE CWA...AND THIS SHOULD GENERALLY TRANSLATE TO
2-4" OF SNOW GIVEN SNOWFALL RATIOS OF ROUGHLY 10-15 TO 1. HIGHEST
AMTS LOOK TO BE IN THE SRN THIRD OF NH...WITH LOWEST AMTS IN
INTERIOR CENTRAL ME.  SNOW SHOULD WIND DOWN IN MOST PLACES BY
12Z...WITH WEST WINDS PICKING UP BY MIDDAY AND TEMPS RISING INTO
THE LOW-MID 30S NEAR THE COAST AND IN SRN NH...AND IN THE MID-
UPPER 30S IN THE NORTH. COLD AIR FILTERS IN MON NIGHT WITH LOWS
DROPPING BACK DOWN BETWEEN -5 AND +10 F. TUE WILL BE A LITTLE
COLDER AS LIGHT FLOW BECOMES MORE ONSHORE AND CLOUDS ROLL IN FROM
THE NEXT APPROACHING FROM THE SW.

THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL FEATURE A 500MB CLOSED LOW WELL TO OUR NW
AND A FEW WEAK WAVES ROTATING AROUND IT AND GRADUALLY FLATTENING
OUT THE RIDGE UNTIL THE KICKER WAVE COME THRU ON THU. THIS WILL
KEEP THINGS UNSETTLED FROM TUE NIGHT INTO THE THU...ALTHOUGH THE
HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP OCCURRING FOR NOW TUE NIGHT INTO WED
MORNING. IT WILL START OUT AS SNOW...BUT IT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
DECENT SW FLOW ALOFT...AND MAIN CHUNK OF HIGH SHIFTS OFF TO THE
EAST AND DOES NOT ENTRENCH ITSELF TO THE NE. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
THE WARN AIR TO MOVE IN FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE SFC. THE QUESTION IS
HOW LONG DOES THE COLD AIR DAM AT THE SFC HOLD ON...GIVEN THE DEEP
SNOWPACK. MODELS ARE PROBABLY OVERDOING THE WARM TO SOME DEGREE.
HAVE INCLUDED FZRA IN THE MIX ON WED. STILL SYSTEM IS FAIRLY
PROGRESSIVE AND QPFS GENERALLY LOOK TO BE IN THE HALF INCH
BALLPARK...SO NOT A BIG EVENT FOR NOW.

MODELS DO WANT TO STALL THE FRONT JUST TO OR S WED NIGHT INTO
THU...AND THEN DEVELOP A WAVE ALONG THE FRONT. FOR NOW MODELS
GENERALLY AGREE THAT MOST OF ANY PRECIP STAYS TO OUR S...BUT HAVE
KEPT THE CHC POPS IN THE FORECAST TO COVER THIS POSSIBILITY.
COLDER HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN FOR FRI.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. AREAS OF MVFR CIGS
DEVELOPING LATE SUNDAY.

LONG TERM...WILL LKLY SEE IFR CIGS/VIS IN SN FOR A GOOD CHUNK OF
SUN NIGHT AT ALL TERMINALS...BUT SHOULD SEE RAPID IMPROVEMENT OT
VFR FORM SW TO NE DURING MON MORNING /EXCEPT KHIE WHICH WILL SEE
OCCNL MVFR-IFR IN SHSN THRU MON AFTERNOON. VFR HOLDS MON NIGHT AND
TUE BEFORE ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES IN TUE AND WILL PRODUCE FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY THROUGH LATE MORNING.

LONG TERM...EXPECT TO NEED AN SCA MONDAY AFT INTO MON NIGHT IN W
FLOW. MAY NEED GALES FOR A PERIOD LATE MON AND MON
EVENING...BEFORE WINDS DIMINISH LATE MON NIGHT. SCA MAY BE NEEDED
AGAIN IN SW FLOW LATE TUE NIGH AND WED.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR ANZ150>152.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KGYX 280816
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
316 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY AND WILL SHIFT
OFFSHORE SUNDAY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT...PRODUCING SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW...BEFORE MOVING INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE GREAT
LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT AND WILL TRACK NORTHEAST THROUGH THE ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY...BRINGING A ROUND OF MIXED
PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA. A COLD FRONT FOLLOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TODAY
PROVIDING SUNNY SKIES AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS. HIGHS WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S NORTH AND MID TO UPPER 20S
SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING WILL AGAIN SEND TEMPS WELL BELOW NORMAL BUT NOT QUITE AS COLD
AS FRIDAY NIGHT. COLDER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS WILL BOTTOM OUT BETWEEN
5 AND 15 BELOW. TEMPERATURES IN THE SOUTH WILL BE BETWEEN 5 ABOVE
AND 5 BELOW. EXPECT SOME HIGH CLOUDS TO FILTER IN FROM THE WEST
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST
AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. HAVE GONE WITH LOW
CHANCE POPS FOR SOUTHWEST ZONES FOR LATE IN THE DAY BUT EXPECT ANY
SNOW SHOWERS TO BE LIGHT AND SPOTTY. HIGH TEMPS WILL CONTINUE
BELOW NORMAL WITH READINGS RANGING THROUGH THE 20S TO NEAR 30.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
500 MB PATTERN IN THE EXTENDED LOOKS TO REMAIN MOSTLY UNCHANGED
THROUGH THE EXTENDED ALTHOUGH STARTING TO SEE SOME SEASONAL
SHIFTING OF THE JET BACK TOWARD THE POLE. ALSO...SOME WEAKEN IN
BOTH THE UPSTREAM AND DOWNSTREAM BLOCKS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME MORE
COMPACT AND PROGRESSIVE WAVES TO DEVELOP WHICH SHOULD HELP
TRANSPORT SOME WARMER INTO THE NERN CONUS...AT LEAST FOR SHORT
PERIODS.

FIRST ON THE AGENDA IS THE FAST MOVING WAVE THAT SWINGS SE OUT OF
THE CANSDI9AN PRAIRIE AND THEN SHIFTS INTO NEW ENGLAND BEFORE
SHOWING A BIT OF A NEGATIVE TILT. LOOKS LIKE THE ENERGY GET S INTO
THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH TO LATE TO DEEPEN THE SFC LOW UNTIL IT IS
TO OUR EAST...AND SO WE WILL SOME SNOW LATE SUNDAY AND MAINLY
SUNDAY NIGHT. QPF LOOKS TO COME IN THE AROUND 0.20-0.25" FAIRLY
EVENLY ACROSS THE CWA...AND THIS SHOULD GENERALLY TRANSLATE TO
2-4" OF SNOW GIVEN SNOWFALL RATIOS OF ROUGHLY 10-15 TO 1. HIGHEST
AMTS LOOK TO BE IN THE SRN THIRD OF NH...WITH LOWEST AMTS IN
INTERIOR CENTRAL ME.  SNOW SHOULD WIND DOWN IN MOST PLACES BY
12Z...WITH WEST WINDS PICKING UP BY MIDDAY AND TEMPS RISING INTO
THE LOW-MID 30S NEAR THE COAST AND IN SRN NH...AND IN THE MID-
UPPER 30S IN THE NORTH. COLD AIR FILTERS IN MON NIGHT WITH LOWS
DROPPING BACK DOWN BETWEEN -5 AND +10 F. TUE WILL BE A LITTLE
COLDER AS LIGHT FLOW BECOMES MORE ONSHORE AND CLOUDS ROLL IN FROM
THE NEXT APPROACHING FROM THE SW.

THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL FEATURE A 500MB CLOSED LOW WELL TO OUR NW
AND A FEW WEAK WAVES ROTATING AROUND IT AND GRADUALLY FLATTENING
OUT THE RIDGE UNTIL THE KICKER WAVE COME THRU ON THU. THIS WILL
KEEP THINGS UNSETTLED FROM TUE NIGHT INTO THE THU...ALTHOUGH THE
HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP OCCURRING FOR NOW TUE NIGHT INTO WED
MORNING. IT WILL START OUT AS SNOW...BUT IT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
DECENT SW FLOW ALOFT...AND MAIN CHUNK OF HIGH SHIFTS OFF TO THE
EAST AND DOES NOT ENTRENCH ITSELF TO THE NE. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
THE WARN AIR TO MOVE IN FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE SFC. THE QUESTION IS
HOW LONG DOES THE COLD AIR DAM AT THE SFC HOLD ON...GIVEN THE DEEP
SNOWPACK. MODELS ARE PROBABLY OVERDOING THE WARM TO SOME DEGREE.
HAVE INCLUDED FZRA IN THE MIX ON WED. STILL SYSTEM IS FAIRLY
PROGRESSIVE AND QPFS GENERALLY LOOK TO BE IN THE HALF INCH
BALLPARK...SO NOT A BIG EVENT FOR NOW.

MODELS DO WANT TO STALL THE FRONT JUST TO OR S WED NIGHT INTO
THU...AND THEN DEVELOP A WAVE ALONG THE FRONT. FOR NOW MODELS
GENERALLY AGREE THAT MOST OF ANY PRECIP STAYS TO OUR S...BUT HAVE
KEPT THE CHC POPS IN THE FORECAST TO COVER THIS POSSIBILITY.
COLDER HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN FOR FRI.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. AREAS OF MVFR CIGS
DEVELOPING LATE SUNDAY.

LONG TERM...WILL LKLY SEE IFR CIGS/VIS IN SN FOR A GOOD CHUNK OF
SUN NIGHT AT ALL TERMINALS...BUT SHOULD SEE RAPID IMPROVEMENT OT
VFR FORM SW TO NE DURING MON MORNING /EXCEPT KHIE WHICH WILL SEE
OCCNL MVFR-IFR IN SHSN THRU MON AFTERNOON. VFR HOLDS MON NIGHT AND
TUE BEFORE ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES IN TUE AND WILL PRODUCE FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY THROUGH LATE MORNING.

LONG TERM...EXPECT TO NEED AN SCA MONDAY AFT INTO MON NIGHT IN W
FLOW. MAY NEED GALES FOR A PERIOD LATE MON AND MON
EVENING...BEFORE WINDS DIMINISH LATE MON NIGHT. SCA MAY BE NEEDED
AGAIN IN SW FLOW LATE TUE NIGH AND WED.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR ANZ150>152.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KGYX 280816
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
316 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY AND WILL SHIFT
OFFSHORE SUNDAY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT...PRODUCING SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW...BEFORE MOVING INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE GREAT
LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT AND WILL TRACK NORTHEAST THROUGH THE ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY...BRINGING A ROUND OF MIXED
PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA. A COLD FRONT FOLLOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TODAY
PROVIDING SUNNY SKIES AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS. HIGHS WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S NORTH AND MID TO UPPER 20S
SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING WILL AGAIN SEND TEMPS WELL BELOW NORMAL BUT NOT QUITE AS COLD
AS FRIDAY NIGHT. COLDER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS WILL BOTTOM OUT BETWEEN
5 AND 15 BELOW. TEMPERATURES IN THE SOUTH WILL BE BETWEEN 5 ABOVE
AND 5 BELOW. EXPECT SOME HIGH CLOUDS TO FILTER IN FROM THE WEST
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST
AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. HAVE GONE WITH LOW
CHANCE POPS FOR SOUTHWEST ZONES FOR LATE IN THE DAY BUT EXPECT ANY
SNOW SHOWERS TO BE LIGHT AND SPOTTY. HIGH TEMPS WILL CONTINUE
BELOW NORMAL WITH READINGS RANGING THROUGH THE 20S TO NEAR 30.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
500 MB PATTERN IN THE EXTENDED LOOKS TO REMAIN MOSTLY UNCHANGED
THROUGH THE EXTENDED ALTHOUGH STARTING TO SEE SOME SEASONAL
SHIFTING OF THE JET BACK TOWARD THE POLE. ALSO...SOME WEAKEN IN
BOTH THE UPSTREAM AND DOWNSTREAM BLOCKS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME MORE
COMPACT AND PROGRESSIVE WAVES TO DEVELOP WHICH SHOULD HELP
TRANSPORT SOME WARMER INTO THE NERN CONUS...AT LEAST FOR SHORT
PERIODS.

FIRST ON THE AGENDA IS THE FAST MOVING WAVE THAT SWINGS SE OUT OF
THE CANSDI9AN PRAIRIE AND THEN SHIFTS INTO NEW ENGLAND BEFORE
SHOWING A BIT OF A NEGATIVE TILT. LOOKS LIKE THE ENERGY GET S INTO
THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH TO LATE TO DEEPEN THE SFC LOW UNTIL IT IS
TO OUR EAST...AND SO WE WILL SOME SNOW LATE SUNDAY AND MAINLY
SUNDAY NIGHT. QPF LOOKS TO COME IN THE AROUND 0.20-0.25" FAIRLY
EVENLY ACROSS THE CWA...AND THIS SHOULD GENERALLY TRANSLATE TO
2-4" OF SNOW GIVEN SNOWFALL RATIOS OF ROUGHLY 10-15 TO 1. HIGHEST
AMTS LOOK TO BE IN THE SRN THIRD OF NH...WITH LOWEST AMTS IN
INTERIOR CENTRAL ME.  SNOW SHOULD WIND DOWN IN MOST PLACES BY
12Z...WITH WEST WINDS PICKING UP BY MIDDAY AND TEMPS RISING INTO
THE LOW-MID 30S NEAR THE COAST AND IN SRN NH...AND IN THE MID-
UPPER 30S IN THE NORTH. COLD AIR FILTERS IN MON NIGHT WITH LOWS
DROPPING BACK DOWN BETWEEN -5 AND +10 F. TUE WILL BE A LITTLE
COLDER AS LIGHT FLOW BECOMES MORE ONSHORE AND CLOUDS ROLL IN FROM
THE NEXT APPROACHING FROM THE SW.

THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL FEATURE A 500MB CLOSED LOW WELL TO OUR NW
AND A FEW WEAK WAVES ROTATING AROUND IT AND GRADUALLY FLATTENING
OUT THE RIDGE UNTIL THE KICKER WAVE COME THRU ON THU. THIS WILL
KEEP THINGS UNSETTLED FROM TUE NIGHT INTO THE THU...ALTHOUGH THE
HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP OCCURRING FOR NOW TUE NIGHT INTO WED
MORNING. IT WILL START OUT AS SNOW...BUT IT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
DECENT SW FLOW ALOFT...AND MAIN CHUNK OF HIGH SHIFTS OFF TO THE
EAST AND DOES NOT ENTRENCH ITSELF TO THE NE. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
THE WARN AIR TO MOVE IN FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE SFC. THE QUESTION IS
HOW LONG DOES THE COLD AIR DAM AT THE SFC HOLD ON...GIVEN THE DEEP
SNOWPACK. MODELS ARE PROBABLY OVERDOING THE WARM TO SOME DEGREE.
HAVE INCLUDED FZRA IN THE MIX ON WED. STILL SYSTEM IS FAIRLY
PROGRESSIVE AND QPFS GENERALLY LOOK TO BE IN THE HALF INCH
BALLPARK...SO NOT A BIG EVENT FOR NOW.

MODELS DO WANT TO STALL THE FRONT JUST TO OR S WED NIGHT INTO
THU...AND THEN DEVELOP A WAVE ALONG THE FRONT. FOR NOW MODELS
GENERALLY AGREE THAT MOST OF ANY PRECIP STAYS TO OUR S...BUT HAVE
KEPT THE CHC POPS IN THE FORECAST TO COVER THIS POSSIBILITY.
COLDER HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN FOR FRI.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. AREAS OF MVFR CIGS
DEVELOPING LATE SUNDAY.

LONG TERM...WILL LKLY SEE IFR CIGS/VIS IN SN FOR A GOOD CHUNK OF
SUN NIGHT AT ALL TERMINALS...BUT SHOULD SEE RAPID IMPROVEMENT OT
VFR FORM SW TO NE DURING MON MORNING /EXCEPT KHIE WHICH WILL SEE
OCCNL MVFR-IFR IN SHSN THRU MON AFTERNOON. VFR HOLDS MON NIGHT AND
TUE BEFORE ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES IN TUE AND WILL PRODUCE FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY THROUGH LATE MORNING.

LONG TERM...EXPECT TO NEED AN SCA MONDAY AFT INTO MON NIGHT IN W
FLOW. MAY NEED GALES FOR A PERIOD LATE MON AND MON
EVENING...BEFORE WINDS DIMINISH LATE MON NIGHT. SCA MAY BE NEEDED
AGAIN IN SW FLOW LATE TUE NIGH AND WED.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR ANZ150>152.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KGYX 280816
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
316 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY AND WILL SHIFT
OFFSHORE SUNDAY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT...PRODUCING SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW...BEFORE MOVING INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE GREAT
LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT AND WILL TRACK NORTHEAST THROUGH THE ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY...BRINGING A ROUND OF MIXED
PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA. A COLD FRONT FOLLOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TODAY
PROVIDING SUNNY SKIES AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS. HIGHS WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S NORTH AND MID TO UPPER 20S
SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING WILL AGAIN SEND TEMPS WELL BELOW NORMAL BUT NOT QUITE AS COLD
AS FRIDAY NIGHT. COLDER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS WILL BOTTOM OUT BETWEEN
5 AND 15 BELOW. TEMPERATURES IN THE SOUTH WILL BE BETWEEN 5 ABOVE
AND 5 BELOW. EXPECT SOME HIGH CLOUDS TO FILTER IN FROM THE WEST
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST
AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. HAVE GONE WITH LOW
CHANCE POPS FOR SOUTHWEST ZONES FOR LATE IN THE DAY BUT EXPECT ANY
SNOW SHOWERS TO BE LIGHT AND SPOTTY. HIGH TEMPS WILL CONTINUE
BELOW NORMAL WITH READINGS RANGING THROUGH THE 20S TO NEAR 30.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
500 MB PATTERN IN THE EXTENDED LOOKS TO REMAIN MOSTLY UNCHANGED
THROUGH THE EXTENDED ALTHOUGH STARTING TO SEE SOME SEASONAL
SHIFTING OF THE JET BACK TOWARD THE POLE. ALSO...SOME WEAKEN IN
BOTH THE UPSTREAM AND DOWNSTREAM BLOCKS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME MORE
COMPACT AND PROGRESSIVE WAVES TO DEVELOP WHICH SHOULD HELP
TRANSPORT SOME WARMER INTO THE NERN CONUS...AT LEAST FOR SHORT
PERIODS.

FIRST ON THE AGENDA IS THE FAST MOVING WAVE THAT SWINGS SE OUT OF
THE CANSDI9AN PRAIRIE AND THEN SHIFTS INTO NEW ENGLAND BEFORE
SHOWING A BIT OF A NEGATIVE TILT. LOOKS LIKE THE ENERGY GET S INTO
THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH TO LATE TO DEEPEN THE SFC LOW UNTIL IT IS
TO OUR EAST...AND SO WE WILL SOME SNOW LATE SUNDAY AND MAINLY
SUNDAY NIGHT. QPF LOOKS TO COME IN THE AROUND 0.20-0.25" FAIRLY
EVENLY ACROSS THE CWA...AND THIS SHOULD GENERALLY TRANSLATE TO
2-4" OF SNOW GIVEN SNOWFALL RATIOS OF ROUGHLY 10-15 TO 1. HIGHEST
AMTS LOOK TO BE IN THE SRN THIRD OF NH...WITH LOWEST AMTS IN
INTERIOR CENTRAL ME.  SNOW SHOULD WIND DOWN IN MOST PLACES BY
12Z...WITH WEST WINDS PICKING UP BY MIDDAY AND TEMPS RISING INTO
THE LOW-MID 30S NEAR THE COAST AND IN SRN NH...AND IN THE MID-
UPPER 30S IN THE NORTH. COLD AIR FILTERS IN MON NIGHT WITH LOWS
DROPPING BACK DOWN BETWEEN -5 AND +10 F. TUE WILL BE A LITTLE
COLDER AS LIGHT FLOW BECOMES MORE ONSHORE AND CLOUDS ROLL IN FROM
THE NEXT APPROACHING FROM THE SW.

THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL FEATURE A 500MB CLOSED LOW WELL TO OUR NW
AND A FEW WEAK WAVES ROTATING AROUND IT AND GRADUALLY FLATTENING
OUT THE RIDGE UNTIL THE KICKER WAVE COME THRU ON THU. THIS WILL
KEEP THINGS UNSETTLED FROM TUE NIGHT INTO THE THU...ALTHOUGH THE
HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP OCCURRING FOR NOW TUE NIGHT INTO WED
MORNING. IT WILL START OUT AS SNOW...BUT IT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
DECENT SW FLOW ALOFT...AND MAIN CHUNK OF HIGH SHIFTS OFF TO THE
EAST AND DOES NOT ENTRENCH ITSELF TO THE NE. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
THE WARN AIR TO MOVE IN FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE SFC. THE QUESTION IS
HOW LONG DOES THE COLD AIR DAM AT THE SFC HOLD ON...GIVEN THE DEEP
SNOWPACK. MODELS ARE PROBABLY OVERDOING THE WARM TO SOME DEGREE.
HAVE INCLUDED FZRA IN THE MIX ON WED. STILL SYSTEM IS FAIRLY
PROGRESSIVE AND QPFS GENERALLY LOOK TO BE IN THE HALF INCH
BALLPARK...SO NOT A BIG EVENT FOR NOW.

MODELS DO WANT TO STALL THE FRONT JUST TO OR S WED NIGHT INTO
THU...AND THEN DEVELOP A WAVE ALONG THE FRONT. FOR NOW MODELS
GENERALLY AGREE THAT MOST OF ANY PRECIP STAYS TO OUR S...BUT HAVE
KEPT THE CHC POPS IN THE FORECAST TO COVER THIS POSSIBILITY.
COLDER HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN FOR FRI.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. AREAS OF MVFR CIGS
DEVELOPING LATE SUNDAY.

LONG TERM...WILL LKLY SEE IFR CIGS/VIS IN SN FOR A GOOD CHUNK OF
SUN NIGHT AT ALL TERMINALS...BUT SHOULD SEE RAPID IMPROVEMENT OT
VFR FORM SW TO NE DURING MON MORNING /EXCEPT KHIE WHICH WILL SEE
OCCNL MVFR-IFR IN SHSN THRU MON AFTERNOON. VFR HOLDS MON NIGHT AND
TUE BEFORE ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES IN TUE AND WILL PRODUCE FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY THROUGH LATE MORNING.

LONG TERM...EXPECT TO NEED AN SCA MONDAY AFT INTO MON NIGHT IN W
FLOW. MAY NEED GALES FOR A PERIOD LATE MON AND MON
EVENING...BEFORE WINDS DIMINISH LATE MON NIGHT. SCA MAY BE NEEDED
AGAIN IN SW FLOW LATE TUE NIGH AND WED.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR ANZ150>152.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KCAR 280730
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
230 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. LOW
PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY FROM
THE WEST. ANOTHER LOW WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS SUNNY SKIES AND HIGHS IN THE 20S FOR
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. SUNDAY WILL BE THE WARMER DAY WITH HIGHS
EDGING TOWARDS 30F FOR BANGOR AND THE DOWN EAST REGION BUT CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW.

LOWS ON SATURDAY NIGHT WILL AGAIN HAVE LARGE SPATIAL VARIABILITY
DUE TO A SHALLOW RADIATIONAL INVERSION THAT WILL ALLOW DECOUPLING
IN SHELTERED LOCATIONS NORTH AS WELL AS MOST OF THE DOWN EAST
REGION. TEMPERATURES COULD DROP TO AROUND -10 TO -12F WHERE WINDS
GO CALM. THESE READINGS WILL BE A BIT WARMER THAN THOSE REGISTERED
TONIGHT AS WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES. STEADY SOUTHWEST WINDS ON
THE NORTH SIDE OF A 1040MB HIGH ARE MOST LIKELY TOWARDS THE CROWN
OF MAINE WHILE CALM WINDS BY DAWN ARE MORE LIKELY IN THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. IN TERMS OF GUIDANCE...HAVE LEANED
TOWARDS SOLUTIONS INDICATED BY THE BIAS-CORRECTED NAM/GFS/MOS WITH
THE COLDER TEMPERATURES IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
WHERE DECOUPLING AND A DEEPER INVERSION ARE MOST LIKELY.
&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST LATE SUNDAY THEN
CROSS THE STATE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. THE LOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO
INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES AWAY TO THE EAST... ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA
DURING THE DAY MONDAY. WILL USE A BLEND OF THE NAM... GFS AND
ECMWF FOR POPS... QPF AND SKY CONDITIONS. FOR SNOW AMOUNTS WILL
USE THE OFFICE SNOW FROM THICKNESS TOOL. WILL USE THE SUPER BLEND
FOR THE TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY MONDAY NIGHT AS IT MOVES
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE MARITIMES. AT THE SAME TIME STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE MID WEST. THE JUXTAPOSITION
OF THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL RESULT IN A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE STATE MONDAY NIGHT. WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED
TO DIMINISH TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER THE REGION DURING
THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE
SOUTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT THEN MOVE JUST TO THE WEST OR ACROSS THE
STATE WEDNESDAY. THE EXACT TRACK OF THE SYSTEM WILL DETERMINE
PRECIPITATION TYPE ACROSS THE AREA. RAIN OR SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN
IS POSSIBLE SOUTH WITH SNOW OR SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN NORTH. MORE
COLD AIR IS EXPECTED TO RETURN THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR

SHORT TERM: IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. IFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT THE FREEZING SPRAY TO TAPER OFF THIS MORNING AND
HAVE LEFT THE END TIME OF THE ADVISORY IN PLACE.

SHORT TERM: FOR SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE USED THE NAM12. FOR WAVES:
SOUTHWEST WIND WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO DOMINATE SUNDAY NIGHT THEN
TRANSITION TO LONG PERIOD SWELL AS AN OFF-SHORE FETCH DEVELOPS
MONDAY. OFF SHORE WIND WAVE WILL PERSIST MONDAY THEN SUBSIDE
MONDAY NIGHT. WILL USE THE NEAR SHORE WAVE MODEL FOR WAVE HEIGHTS.&&

.CLIMATE...
THIS FEBRUARY WILL END AS THE ALL-TIME COLDEST MONTH
ON RECORD AT BANGOR...AND THE COLDEST FEBRUARY AT CARIBOU. MORE
INFORMATION ON THE COLD FEBRUARY IS AVAILABLE ON THE NEWS
HEADLINES ON THE TOP OF OUR WEB PAGE AT WEATHER.GOV/CAR

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MCW
SHORT TERM...MIGNONE
LONG TERM...MIGNONE
AVIATION...MCW/MIGNONE
MARINE...MCW/MIGNONE
CLIMATE...CB




000
FXUS61 KCAR 280730
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
230 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. LOW
PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY FROM
THE WEST. ANOTHER LOW WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS SUNNY SKIES AND HIGHS IN THE 20S FOR
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. SUNDAY WILL BE THE WARMER DAY WITH HIGHS
EDGING TOWARDS 30F FOR BANGOR AND THE DOWN EAST REGION BUT CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW.

LOWS ON SATURDAY NIGHT WILL AGAIN HAVE LARGE SPATIAL VARIABILITY
DUE TO A SHALLOW RADIATIONAL INVERSION THAT WILL ALLOW DECOUPLING
IN SHELTERED LOCATIONS NORTH AS WELL AS MOST OF THE DOWN EAST
REGION. TEMPERATURES COULD DROP TO AROUND -10 TO -12F WHERE WINDS
GO CALM. THESE READINGS WILL BE A BIT WARMER THAN THOSE REGISTERED
TONIGHT AS WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES. STEADY SOUTHWEST WINDS ON
THE NORTH SIDE OF A 1040MB HIGH ARE MOST LIKELY TOWARDS THE CROWN
OF MAINE WHILE CALM WINDS BY DAWN ARE MORE LIKELY IN THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. IN TERMS OF GUIDANCE...HAVE LEANED
TOWARDS SOLUTIONS INDICATED BY THE BIAS-CORRECTED NAM/GFS/MOS WITH
THE COLDER TEMPERATURES IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
WHERE DECOUPLING AND A DEEPER INVERSION ARE MOST LIKELY.
&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST LATE SUNDAY THEN
CROSS THE STATE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. THE LOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO
INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES AWAY TO THE EAST... ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA
DURING THE DAY MONDAY. WILL USE A BLEND OF THE NAM... GFS AND
ECMWF FOR POPS... QPF AND SKY CONDITIONS. FOR SNOW AMOUNTS WILL
USE THE OFFICE SNOW FROM THICKNESS TOOL. WILL USE THE SUPER BLEND
FOR THE TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY MONDAY NIGHT AS IT MOVES
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE MARITIMES. AT THE SAME TIME STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE MID WEST. THE JUXTAPOSITION
OF THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL RESULT IN A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE STATE MONDAY NIGHT. WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED
TO DIMINISH TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER THE REGION DURING
THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE
SOUTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT THEN MOVE JUST TO THE WEST OR ACROSS THE
STATE WEDNESDAY. THE EXACT TRACK OF THE SYSTEM WILL DETERMINE
PRECIPITATION TYPE ACROSS THE AREA. RAIN OR SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN
IS POSSIBLE SOUTH WITH SNOW OR SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN NORTH. MORE
COLD AIR IS EXPECTED TO RETURN THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR

SHORT TERM: IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. IFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT THE FREEZING SPRAY TO TAPER OFF THIS MORNING AND
HAVE LEFT THE END TIME OF THE ADVISORY IN PLACE.

SHORT TERM: FOR SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE USED THE NAM12. FOR WAVES:
SOUTHWEST WIND WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO DOMINATE SUNDAY NIGHT THEN
TRANSITION TO LONG PERIOD SWELL AS AN OFF-SHORE FETCH DEVELOPS
MONDAY. OFF SHORE WIND WAVE WILL PERSIST MONDAY THEN SUBSIDE
MONDAY NIGHT. WILL USE THE NEAR SHORE WAVE MODEL FOR WAVE HEIGHTS.&&

.CLIMATE...
THIS FEBRUARY WILL END AS THE ALL-TIME COLDEST MONTH
ON RECORD AT BANGOR...AND THE COLDEST FEBRUARY AT CARIBOU. MORE
INFORMATION ON THE COLD FEBRUARY IS AVAILABLE ON THE NEWS
HEADLINES ON THE TOP OF OUR WEB PAGE AT WEATHER.GOV/CAR

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MCW
SHORT TERM...MIGNONE
LONG TERM...MIGNONE
AVIATION...MCW/MIGNONE
MARINE...MCW/MIGNONE
CLIMATE...CB



000
FXUS61 KCAR 280509
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1209 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. LOW
PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY FROM
THE WEST. ANOTHER LOW WILL LIKELY CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT WITH CLEAR
SKIES AND COLD TEMPERATURES. GENERALLY EXPECT LOW TEMPERATURES
OVERNIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 10 TO 20 BELOW ZERO ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS...WITH 5 TO 10 BELOW ZERO ACROSS INTERIOR DOWNEAST AREAS AND
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST.
HOWEVER...LOCALLY COLDER TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADJUST FOR CURRENT
CONDITIONS ALONG WITH EXPECTED OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A SPRAWLING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED IN THE MIDWEST THIS
AFTERNOON COVERS A LOT OF REAL ESTATE FROM THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS TO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL
MOVE SLOWLY EAST AND WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE POCONOS DOWN INTO
THE TIDEWATER OF VIRGINIA BY 00Z SUNDAY. ALOFT...A QUASI-ZONAL
FLOW PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY WITH A COUPLE OF MINOR
SHORTWAVES TO PASS TO OUR SOUTH.

THE AIR MASS WILL SLOWLY MODERATE THROUGH SAT AND THE 925 MB TEMP
WHICH WAS -22C AT 12Z THIS MORNING AT CARIBOU IS EXPECTED TO RISE
TO AROUND -14C BY SAT AFTERNOON. SATURDAY WILL BE ANOTHER SUNNY
DAY AND WITH A MODERATION OF THE AIR MASS AS THE INVERSIONS BREAK
EXPECT TEMPS TO MODERATE SIGNIFICANTLY. BASED ON THE TEMPERATURES
THIS AFTERNOON GETTING WARMER THAN FORECAST DID RAISE THE HIGH
TEMPS A FEW DEGREES SAT AFTERNOON.
&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
THE MAJOR SYSTEMS. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE BUILT ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC COAST THATS AND NEW ENGLAND. A LOW OVER HUDSON BAY WITH
ITS ASSOCIATED ARCTIC FRONTAL SYSTEM...A SECOND LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM CENTERED IN THE FOUR CORNERS REGIONS WITH ITS ASSOCIATED
FRONT EXTENDING EAST INTO SRN IL. SUN MRNG THE HIGH BUILDS EAST
INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC...THE WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
OVR FOUR CORNERS EXTEND EAST INTO PA. THE ARCTIC FRONT EXTENDS
SOUTH INTO THE NRN PLAINS. BY SUN EVNG... THESE TWO LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MERGE OVER THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES REGION...THE GFS/NAM SHOWS
A NEW NEW LOW OVER LAKE ONTARIO. THE ECMWF SHOWS A BROAD AREA OF
LOWER PRESSURE IN THE SAME AREA. THE GEM SHOWS THE LOW OVR NRN KY.
THE NEW LOW WILL RAPIDLY DEEPEN AND MOVE EAST. THE GFS MOVES IT TO
VT/NH...THE ECMWF INTO SW GULF OF MAINE. THE GEM/NAM INTO THE SE
GULF OF MAINE. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...THE LOW WILL BE EAST OF
THE AREA...DRAWING ARCTIC AIR ONCE AGAIN INTO THE AREA AS A
CANADIAN HIGH BEGINS TO BUILD IN.

LOADED A BLEND OF THE GFS/NAM/GEM/ECMWF FOR T/TD/WND/POP. LOADED
NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS IN THE COASTAL WATERS. ADDED 15 PERCENT TO WINDS
FOR GUSTS OVER LAND...35 PERCENT FOR GUSTS OVER COASTAL WATERS.
&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED A LOW EXITING THE AREA OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES COMBINED WITH AN ADVANCING CANADIAN HIGH
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND VERY COLD AREA OVER THE AREA MON NGT. THE
HIGH WILL CREST OVER THE AREA TUES AFTERNOON...AS ANOTHER FRONTAL
SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE CNTRL US. BY EARLY WED MRNG THE FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO WRN MAINE. EARLY WED AFTERNOON THE FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH MAINE INTO NEW BRUNSWICK...THE ASSOCIATED LOW WILL MOVE TO
ERN QUEBEC. BY THURS MRNG THE LOW WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE
MARITIMES...A SECONDARY TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH NRN MAINE. A
RIDGE OF HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO WRN MAINE. A TROUGH WILL
MOVE THROUGH NRN MAINE EARLY MORNING FRI...OTHERWISE THE RIDGE
WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER INTO EARLY SATURDAY. A NEW LOW WILL MOVE
SE OUT OF NW CANADA ON THURS EVNG...TO LAKE SUPERIOR FRI
AFTERNOON. THE GFS SHOWS ITS ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
WRN MAINE EARLY SAT MRNG AND BY THE END OF THE PERIOD THE LOW WILL
BE OVER SWRN QUEBEC...WITH THE WARM FRONT EXTENDED THROUGH CENTRAL
MAINE. THE ECMWF IS SIMILAR BUT ABOUT 6 HRS BEHIND.
&&

.AVIATION /05Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY.

SHORT TERM: CLR TO PC THROUGH SUN AFTERNOON...INCREASING CLOUDS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON FROM THE SW TO NE. VFR CONDITIONS ALL SITES
THROUGH EARLY SUN EVNG...MVFR BHB AND BGR SUN EVNG AS A LOW MOVES
ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND INTO THE GULF OF MAINE. IFR CONDITIONS
AFTER MIDNIGHT BHB...BGR...VFR OTHER SITES AS THE LOW MOVES
THROUGH THE COASTAL MAINE REGION. CONDITIONS RETURNING TO VFR MON
AFTERNOON ALL SITES.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS OVERNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. A FREEZING SPRAY
ADVISORY FOR MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY IS IN EFFECT OVERNIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING.

SHORT TERM: WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA SUN AND EARLY MON. WINDS AND
SEAS WILL BUILD AS A LOW TRACK ACROSS COASTAL REGIONS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVNGS AT THIS TIME WNDS APPEAR TO BE IN THE UPPER
END OF SCA LOWER END GALE FORCE. SEAS BUILDING TO AROUND 7 FT.
&&

.CLIMATE...
THIS FEBRUARY WILL END AS THE ALL-TIME COLDEST MONTH
ON RECORD AT BANGOR...AND THE COLDEST FEBRUARY AT CARIBOU. MORE
INFORMATION ON THE COLD FEBRUARY IS AVAILABLE ON THE NEWS
HEADLINES ON THE TOP OF OUR WEB PAGE AT WEATHER.GOV/CAR
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ050>052.
&&
$$

NEAR TERM...CB/MCW
SHORT TERM...NORTON
LONG TERM...NORTON
AVIATION...CB/MCW/NORTON
MARINE...CB/MCW/NORTON
CLIMATE...CB



000
FXUS61 KCAR 280509
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1209 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. LOW
PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY FROM
THE WEST. ANOTHER LOW WILL LIKELY CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT WITH CLEAR
SKIES AND COLD TEMPERATURES. GENERALLY EXPECT LOW TEMPERATURES
OVERNIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 10 TO 20 BELOW ZERO ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS...WITH 5 TO 10 BELOW ZERO ACROSS INTERIOR DOWNEAST AREAS AND
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST.
HOWEVER...LOCALLY COLDER TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADJUST FOR CURRENT
CONDITIONS ALONG WITH EXPECTED OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A SPRAWLING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED IN THE MIDWEST THIS
AFTERNOON COVERS A LOT OF REAL ESTATE FROM THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS TO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL
MOVE SLOWLY EAST AND WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE POCONOS DOWN INTO
THE TIDEWATER OF VIRGINIA BY 00Z SUNDAY. ALOFT...A QUASI-ZONAL
FLOW PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY WITH A COUPLE OF MINOR
SHORTWAVES TO PASS TO OUR SOUTH.

THE AIR MASS WILL SLOWLY MODERATE THROUGH SAT AND THE 925 MB TEMP
WHICH WAS -22C AT 12Z THIS MORNING AT CARIBOU IS EXPECTED TO RISE
TO AROUND -14C BY SAT AFTERNOON. SATURDAY WILL BE ANOTHER SUNNY
DAY AND WITH A MODERATION OF THE AIR MASS AS THE INVERSIONS BREAK
EXPECT TEMPS TO MODERATE SIGNIFICANTLY. BASED ON THE TEMPERATURES
THIS AFTERNOON GETTING WARMER THAN FORECAST DID RAISE THE HIGH
TEMPS A FEW DEGREES SAT AFTERNOON.
&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
THE MAJOR SYSTEMS. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE BUILT ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC COAST THATS AND NEW ENGLAND. A LOW OVER HUDSON BAY WITH
ITS ASSOCIATED ARCTIC FRONTAL SYSTEM...A SECOND LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM CENTERED IN THE FOUR CORNERS REGIONS WITH ITS ASSOCIATED
FRONT EXTENDING EAST INTO SRN IL. SUN MRNG THE HIGH BUILDS EAST
INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC...THE WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
OVR FOUR CORNERS EXTEND EAST INTO PA. THE ARCTIC FRONT EXTENDS
SOUTH INTO THE NRN PLAINS. BY SUN EVNG... THESE TWO LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MERGE OVER THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES REGION...THE GFS/NAM SHOWS
A NEW NEW LOW OVER LAKE ONTARIO. THE ECMWF SHOWS A BROAD AREA OF
LOWER PRESSURE IN THE SAME AREA. THE GEM SHOWS THE LOW OVR NRN KY.
THE NEW LOW WILL RAPIDLY DEEPEN AND MOVE EAST. THE GFS MOVES IT TO
VT/NH...THE ECMWF INTO SW GULF OF MAINE. THE GEM/NAM INTO THE SE
GULF OF MAINE. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...THE LOW WILL BE EAST OF
THE AREA...DRAWING ARCTIC AIR ONCE AGAIN INTO THE AREA AS A
CANADIAN HIGH BEGINS TO BUILD IN.

LOADED A BLEND OF THE GFS/NAM/GEM/ECMWF FOR T/TD/WND/POP. LOADED
NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS IN THE COASTAL WATERS. ADDED 15 PERCENT TO WINDS
FOR GUSTS OVER LAND...35 PERCENT FOR GUSTS OVER COASTAL WATERS.
&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED A LOW EXITING THE AREA OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES COMBINED WITH AN ADVANCING CANADIAN HIGH
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND VERY COLD AREA OVER THE AREA MON NGT. THE
HIGH WILL CREST OVER THE AREA TUES AFTERNOON...AS ANOTHER FRONTAL
SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE CNTRL US. BY EARLY WED MRNG THE FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO WRN MAINE. EARLY WED AFTERNOON THE FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH MAINE INTO NEW BRUNSWICK...THE ASSOCIATED LOW WILL MOVE TO
ERN QUEBEC. BY THURS MRNG THE LOW WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE
MARITIMES...A SECONDARY TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH NRN MAINE. A
RIDGE OF HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO WRN MAINE. A TROUGH WILL
MOVE THROUGH NRN MAINE EARLY MORNING FRI...OTHERWISE THE RIDGE
WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER INTO EARLY SATURDAY. A NEW LOW WILL MOVE
SE OUT OF NW CANADA ON THURS EVNG...TO LAKE SUPERIOR FRI
AFTERNOON. THE GFS SHOWS ITS ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
WRN MAINE EARLY SAT MRNG AND BY THE END OF THE PERIOD THE LOW WILL
BE OVER SWRN QUEBEC...WITH THE WARM FRONT EXTENDED THROUGH CENTRAL
MAINE. THE ECMWF IS SIMILAR BUT ABOUT 6 HRS BEHIND.
&&

.AVIATION /05Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY.

SHORT TERM: CLR TO PC THROUGH SUN AFTERNOON...INCREASING CLOUDS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON FROM THE SW TO NE. VFR CONDITIONS ALL SITES
THROUGH EARLY SUN EVNG...MVFR BHB AND BGR SUN EVNG AS A LOW MOVES
ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND INTO THE GULF OF MAINE. IFR CONDITIONS
AFTER MIDNIGHT BHB...BGR...VFR OTHER SITES AS THE LOW MOVES
THROUGH THE COASTAL MAINE REGION. CONDITIONS RETURNING TO VFR MON
AFTERNOON ALL SITES.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS OVERNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. A FREEZING SPRAY
ADVISORY FOR MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY IS IN EFFECT OVERNIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING.

SHORT TERM: WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA SUN AND EARLY MON. WINDS AND
SEAS WILL BUILD AS A LOW TRACK ACROSS COASTAL REGIONS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVNGS AT THIS TIME WNDS APPEAR TO BE IN THE UPPER
END OF SCA LOWER END GALE FORCE. SEAS BUILDING TO AROUND 7 FT.
&&

.CLIMATE...
THIS FEBRUARY WILL END AS THE ALL-TIME COLDEST MONTH
ON RECORD AT BANGOR...AND THE COLDEST FEBRUARY AT CARIBOU. MORE
INFORMATION ON THE COLD FEBRUARY IS AVAILABLE ON THE NEWS
HEADLINES ON THE TOP OF OUR WEB PAGE AT WEATHER.GOV/CAR
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ050>052.
&&
$$

NEAR TERM...CB/MCW
SHORT TERM...NORTON
LONG TERM...NORTON
AVIATION...CB/MCW/NORTON
MARINE...CB/MCW/NORTON
CLIMATE...CB



000
FXUS61 KCAR 280509
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1209 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. LOW
PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY FROM
THE WEST. ANOTHER LOW WILL LIKELY CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT WITH CLEAR
SKIES AND COLD TEMPERATURES. GENERALLY EXPECT LOW TEMPERATURES
OVERNIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 10 TO 20 BELOW ZERO ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS...WITH 5 TO 10 BELOW ZERO ACROSS INTERIOR DOWNEAST AREAS AND
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST.
HOWEVER...LOCALLY COLDER TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADJUST FOR CURRENT
CONDITIONS ALONG WITH EXPECTED OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A SPRAWLING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED IN THE MIDWEST THIS
AFTERNOON COVERS A LOT OF REAL ESTATE FROM THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS TO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL
MOVE SLOWLY EAST AND WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE POCONOS DOWN INTO
THE TIDEWATER OF VIRGINIA BY 00Z SUNDAY. ALOFT...A QUASI-ZONAL
FLOW PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY WITH A COUPLE OF MINOR
SHORTWAVES TO PASS TO OUR SOUTH.

THE AIR MASS WILL SLOWLY MODERATE THROUGH SAT AND THE 925 MB TEMP
WHICH WAS -22C AT 12Z THIS MORNING AT CARIBOU IS EXPECTED TO RISE
TO AROUND -14C BY SAT AFTERNOON. SATURDAY WILL BE ANOTHER SUNNY
DAY AND WITH A MODERATION OF THE AIR MASS AS THE INVERSIONS BREAK
EXPECT TEMPS TO MODERATE SIGNIFICANTLY. BASED ON THE TEMPERATURES
THIS AFTERNOON GETTING WARMER THAN FORECAST DID RAISE THE HIGH
TEMPS A FEW DEGREES SAT AFTERNOON.
&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
THE MAJOR SYSTEMS. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE BUILT ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC COAST THATS AND NEW ENGLAND. A LOW OVER HUDSON BAY WITH
ITS ASSOCIATED ARCTIC FRONTAL SYSTEM...A SECOND LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM CENTERED IN THE FOUR CORNERS REGIONS WITH ITS ASSOCIATED
FRONT EXTENDING EAST INTO SRN IL. SUN MRNG THE HIGH BUILDS EAST
INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC...THE WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
OVR FOUR CORNERS EXTEND EAST INTO PA. THE ARCTIC FRONT EXTENDS
SOUTH INTO THE NRN PLAINS. BY SUN EVNG... THESE TWO LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MERGE OVER THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES REGION...THE GFS/NAM SHOWS
A NEW NEW LOW OVER LAKE ONTARIO. THE ECMWF SHOWS A BROAD AREA OF
LOWER PRESSURE IN THE SAME AREA. THE GEM SHOWS THE LOW OVR NRN KY.
THE NEW LOW WILL RAPIDLY DEEPEN AND MOVE EAST. THE GFS MOVES IT TO
VT/NH...THE ECMWF INTO SW GULF OF MAINE. THE GEM/NAM INTO THE SE
GULF OF MAINE. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...THE LOW WILL BE EAST OF
THE AREA...DRAWING ARCTIC AIR ONCE AGAIN INTO THE AREA AS A
CANADIAN HIGH BEGINS TO BUILD IN.

LOADED A BLEND OF THE GFS/NAM/GEM/ECMWF FOR T/TD/WND/POP. LOADED
NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS IN THE COASTAL WATERS. ADDED 15 PERCENT TO WINDS
FOR GUSTS OVER LAND...35 PERCENT FOR GUSTS OVER COASTAL WATERS.
&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED A LOW EXITING THE AREA OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES COMBINED WITH AN ADVANCING CANADIAN HIGH
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND VERY COLD AREA OVER THE AREA MON NGT. THE
HIGH WILL CREST OVER THE AREA TUES AFTERNOON...AS ANOTHER FRONTAL
SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE CNTRL US. BY EARLY WED MRNG THE FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO WRN MAINE. EARLY WED AFTERNOON THE FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH MAINE INTO NEW BRUNSWICK...THE ASSOCIATED LOW WILL MOVE TO
ERN QUEBEC. BY THURS MRNG THE LOW WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE
MARITIMES...A SECONDARY TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH NRN MAINE. A
RIDGE OF HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO WRN MAINE. A TROUGH WILL
MOVE THROUGH NRN MAINE EARLY MORNING FRI...OTHERWISE THE RIDGE
WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER INTO EARLY SATURDAY. A NEW LOW WILL MOVE
SE OUT OF NW CANADA ON THURS EVNG...TO LAKE SUPERIOR FRI
AFTERNOON. THE GFS SHOWS ITS ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
WRN MAINE EARLY SAT MRNG AND BY THE END OF THE PERIOD THE LOW WILL
BE OVER SWRN QUEBEC...WITH THE WARM FRONT EXTENDED THROUGH CENTRAL
MAINE. THE ECMWF IS SIMILAR BUT ABOUT 6 HRS BEHIND.
&&

.AVIATION /05Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY.

SHORT TERM: CLR TO PC THROUGH SUN AFTERNOON...INCREASING CLOUDS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON FROM THE SW TO NE. VFR CONDITIONS ALL SITES
THROUGH EARLY SUN EVNG...MVFR BHB AND BGR SUN EVNG AS A LOW MOVES
ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND INTO THE GULF OF MAINE. IFR CONDITIONS
AFTER MIDNIGHT BHB...BGR...VFR OTHER SITES AS THE LOW MOVES
THROUGH THE COASTAL MAINE REGION. CONDITIONS RETURNING TO VFR MON
AFTERNOON ALL SITES.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS OVERNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. A FREEZING SPRAY
ADVISORY FOR MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY IS IN EFFECT OVERNIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING.

SHORT TERM: WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA SUN AND EARLY MON. WINDS AND
SEAS WILL BUILD AS A LOW TRACK ACROSS COASTAL REGIONS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVNGS AT THIS TIME WNDS APPEAR TO BE IN THE UPPER
END OF SCA LOWER END GALE FORCE. SEAS BUILDING TO AROUND 7 FT.
&&

.CLIMATE...
THIS FEBRUARY WILL END AS THE ALL-TIME COLDEST MONTH
ON RECORD AT BANGOR...AND THE COLDEST FEBRUARY AT CARIBOU. MORE
INFORMATION ON THE COLD FEBRUARY IS AVAILABLE ON THE NEWS
HEADLINES ON THE TOP OF OUR WEB PAGE AT WEATHER.GOV/CAR
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ050>052.
&&
$$

NEAR TERM...CB/MCW
SHORT TERM...NORTON
LONG TERM...NORTON
AVIATION...CB/MCW/NORTON
MARINE...CB/MCW/NORTON
CLIMATE...CB




000
FXUS61 KCAR 280509
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1209 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. LOW
PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY FROM
THE WEST. ANOTHER LOW WILL LIKELY CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT WITH CLEAR
SKIES AND COLD TEMPERATURES. GENERALLY EXPECT LOW TEMPERATURES
OVERNIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 10 TO 20 BELOW ZERO ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS...WITH 5 TO 10 BELOW ZERO ACROSS INTERIOR DOWNEAST AREAS AND
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST.
HOWEVER...LOCALLY COLDER TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADJUST FOR CURRENT
CONDITIONS ALONG WITH EXPECTED OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A SPRAWLING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED IN THE MIDWEST THIS
AFTERNOON COVERS A LOT OF REAL ESTATE FROM THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS TO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL
MOVE SLOWLY EAST AND WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE POCONOS DOWN INTO
THE TIDEWATER OF VIRGINIA BY 00Z SUNDAY. ALOFT...A QUASI-ZONAL
FLOW PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY WITH A COUPLE OF MINOR
SHORTWAVES TO PASS TO OUR SOUTH.

THE AIR MASS WILL SLOWLY MODERATE THROUGH SAT AND THE 925 MB TEMP
WHICH WAS -22C AT 12Z THIS MORNING AT CARIBOU IS EXPECTED TO RISE
TO AROUND -14C BY SAT AFTERNOON. SATURDAY WILL BE ANOTHER SUNNY
DAY AND WITH A MODERATION OF THE AIR MASS AS THE INVERSIONS BREAK
EXPECT TEMPS TO MODERATE SIGNIFICANTLY. BASED ON THE TEMPERATURES
THIS AFTERNOON GETTING WARMER THAN FORECAST DID RAISE THE HIGH
TEMPS A FEW DEGREES SAT AFTERNOON.
&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
THE MAJOR SYSTEMS. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE BUILT ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC COAST THATS AND NEW ENGLAND. A LOW OVER HUDSON BAY WITH
ITS ASSOCIATED ARCTIC FRONTAL SYSTEM...A SECOND LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM CENTERED IN THE FOUR CORNERS REGIONS WITH ITS ASSOCIATED
FRONT EXTENDING EAST INTO SRN IL. SUN MRNG THE HIGH BUILDS EAST
INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC...THE WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
OVR FOUR CORNERS EXTEND EAST INTO PA. THE ARCTIC FRONT EXTENDS
SOUTH INTO THE NRN PLAINS. BY SUN EVNG... THESE TWO LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MERGE OVER THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES REGION...THE GFS/NAM SHOWS
A NEW NEW LOW OVER LAKE ONTARIO. THE ECMWF SHOWS A BROAD AREA OF
LOWER PRESSURE IN THE SAME AREA. THE GEM SHOWS THE LOW OVR NRN KY.
THE NEW LOW WILL RAPIDLY DEEPEN AND MOVE EAST. THE GFS MOVES IT TO
VT/NH...THE ECMWF INTO SW GULF OF MAINE. THE GEM/NAM INTO THE SE
GULF OF MAINE. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...THE LOW WILL BE EAST OF
THE AREA...DRAWING ARCTIC AIR ONCE AGAIN INTO THE AREA AS A
CANADIAN HIGH BEGINS TO BUILD IN.

LOADED A BLEND OF THE GFS/NAM/GEM/ECMWF FOR T/TD/WND/POP. LOADED
NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS IN THE COASTAL WATERS. ADDED 15 PERCENT TO WINDS
FOR GUSTS OVER LAND...35 PERCENT FOR GUSTS OVER COASTAL WATERS.
&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED A LOW EXITING THE AREA OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES COMBINED WITH AN ADVANCING CANADIAN HIGH
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND VERY COLD AREA OVER THE AREA MON NGT. THE
HIGH WILL CREST OVER THE AREA TUES AFTERNOON...AS ANOTHER FRONTAL
SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE CNTRL US. BY EARLY WED MRNG THE FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO WRN MAINE. EARLY WED AFTERNOON THE FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH MAINE INTO NEW BRUNSWICK...THE ASSOCIATED LOW WILL MOVE TO
ERN QUEBEC. BY THURS MRNG THE LOW WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE
MARITIMES...A SECONDARY TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH NRN MAINE. A
RIDGE OF HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO WRN MAINE. A TROUGH WILL
MOVE THROUGH NRN MAINE EARLY MORNING FRI...OTHERWISE THE RIDGE
WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER INTO EARLY SATURDAY. A NEW LOW WILL MOVE
SE OUT OF NW CANADA ON THURS EVNG...TO LAKE SUPERIOR FRI
AFTERNOON. THE GFS SHOWS ITS ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
WRN MAINE EARLY SAT MRNG AND BY THE END OF THE PERIOD THE LOW WILL
BE OVER SWRN QUEBEC...WITH THE WARM FRONT EXTENDED THROUGH CENTRAL
MAINE. THE ECMWF IS SIMILAR BUT ABOUT 6 HRS BEHIND.
&&

.AVIATION /05Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY.

SHORT TERM: CLR TO PC THROUGH SUN AFTERNOON...INCREASING CLOUDS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON FROM THE SW TO NE. VFR CONDITIONS ALL SITES
THROUGH EARLY SUN EVNG...MVFR BHB AND BGR SUN EVNG AS A LOW MOVES
ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND INTO THE GULF OF MAINE. IFR CONDITIONS
AFTER MIDNIGHT BHB...BGR...VFR OTHER SITES AS THE LOW MOVES
THROUGH THE COASTAL MAINE REGION. CONDITIONS RETURNING TO VFR MON
AFTERNOON ALL SITES.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS OVERNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. A FREEZING SPRAY
ADVISORY FOR MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY IS IN EFFECT OVERNIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING.

SHORT TERM: WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA SUN AND EARLY MON. WINDS AND
SEAS WILL BUILD AS A LOW TRACK ACROSS COASTAL REGIONS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVNGS AT THIS TIME WNDS APPEAR TO BE IN THE UPPER
END OF SCA LOWER END GALE FORCE. SEAS BUILDING TO AROUND 7 FT.
&&

.CLIMATE...
THIS FEBRUARY WILL END AS THE ALL-TIME COLDEST MONTH
ON RECORD AT BANGOR...AND THE COLDEST FEBRUARY AT CARIBOU. MORE
INFORMATION ON THE COLD FEBRUARY IS AVAILABLE ON THE NEWS
HEADLINES ON THE TOP OF OUR WEB PAGE AT WEATHER.GOV/CAR
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ050>052.
&&
$$

NEAR TERM...CB/MCW
SHORT TERM...NORTON
LONG TERM...NORTON
AVIATION...CB/MCW/NORTON
MARINE...CB/MCW/NORTON
CLIMATE...CB




000
FXUS61 KCAR 280314
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1014 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. LOW
PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY FROM
THE WEST. ANOTHER LOW WILL LIKELY CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT WITH CLEAR
SKIES AND COLD TEMPERATURES. GENERALLY EXPECT LOW TEMPERATURES
OVERNIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 10 TO 20 BELOW ZERO ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS...WITH 5 TO 10 BELOW ZERO ACROSS INTERIOR DOWNEAST AREAS AND
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST.
HOWEVER...LOCALLY COLDER TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADJUST FOR CURRENT
CONDITIONS ALONG WITH EXPECTED OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A SPRAWLING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED IN THE MIDWEST THIS
AFTERNOON COVERS A LOT OF REAL ESTATE FROM THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS TO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL
MOVE SLOWLY EAST AND WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE POCONOS DOWN INTO
THE TIDEWATER OF VIRGINIA BY 00Z SUNDAY. ALOFT...A QUASI-ZONAL
FLOW PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY WITH A COUPLE OF MINOR
SHORTWAVES TO PASS TO OUR SOUTH.

THE AIR MASS WILL SLOWLY MODERATE THROUGH SAT AND THE 925 MB TEMP
WHICH WAS -22C AT 12Z THIS MORNING AT CARIBOU IS EXPECTED TO RISE
TO AROUND -14C BY SAT AFTERNOON. SATURDAY WILL BE ANOTHER SUNNY
DAY AND WITH A MODERATION OF THE AIR MASS AS THE INVERSIONS BREAK
EXPECT TEMPS TO MODERATE SIGNIFICANTLY. BASED ON THE TEMPERATURES
THIS AFTERNOON GETTING WARMER THAN FORECAST DID RAISE THE HIGH
TEMPS A FEW DEGREES SAT AFTERNOON.
&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
THE MAJOR SYSTEMS. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE BUILT ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC COAST THATS AND NEW ENGLAND. A LOW OVER HUDSON BAY WITH
ITS ASSOCIATED ARCTIC FRONTAL SYSTEM...A SECOND LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM CENTERED IN THE FOUR CORNERS REGIONS WITH ITS ASSOCIATED
FRONT EXTENDING EAST INTO SRN IL. SUN MRNG THE HIGH BUILDS EAST
INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC...THE WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
OVR FOUR CORNERS EXTEND EAST INTO PA. THE ARCTIC FRONT EXTENDS
SOUTH INTO THE NRN PLAINS. BY SUN EVNG... THESE TWO LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MERGE OVER THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES REGION...THE GFS/NAM SHOWS
A NEW NEW LOW OVER LAKE ONTARIO. THE ECMWF SHOWS A BROAD AREA OF
LOWER PRESSURE IN THE SAME AREA. THE GEM SHOWS THE LOW OVR NRN KY.
THE NEW LOW WILL RAPIDLY DEEPEN AND MOVE EAST. THE GFS MOVES IT TO
VT/NH...THE ECMWF INTO SW GULF OF MAINE. THE GEM/NAM INTO THE SE
GULF OF MAINE. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...THE LOW WILL BE EAST OF
THE AREA...DRAWING ARCTIC AIR ONCE AGAIN INTO THE AREA AS A
CANADIAN HIGH BEGINS TO BUILD IN.

LOADED A BLEND OF THE GFS/NAM/GEM/ECMWF FOR T/TD/WND/POP. LOADED
NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS IN THE COASTAL WATERS. ADDED 15 PERCENT TO WINDS
FOR GUSTS OVER LAND...35 PERCENT FOR GUSTS OVER COASTAL WATERS.
&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED A LOW EXITING THE AREA OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES COMBINED WITH AN ADVANCING CANADIAN HIGH
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND VERY COLD AREA OVER THE AREA MON NGT. THE
HIGH WILL CREST OVER THE AREA TUES AFTERNOON...AS ANOTHER FRONTAL
SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE CNTRL US. BY EARLY WED MRNG THE FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO WRN MAINE. EARLY WED AFTERNOON THE FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH MAINE INTO NEW BRUNSWICK...THE ASSOCIATED LOW WILL MOVE TO
ERN QUEBEC. BY THURS MRNG THE LOW WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE
MARITIMES...A SECONDARY TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH NRN MAINE. A
RIDGE OF HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO WRN MAINE. A TROUGH WILL
MOVE THROUGH NRN MAINE EARLY MORNING FRI...OTHERWISE THE RIDGE
WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER INTO EARLY SATURDAY. A NEW LOW WILL MOVE
SE OUT OF NW CANADA ON THURS EVNG...TO LAKE SUPERIOR FRI
AFTERNOON. THE GFS SHOWS ITS ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
WRN MAINE EARLY SAT MRNG AND BY THE END OF THE PERIOD THE LOW WILL
BE OVER SWRN QUEBEC...WITH THE WARM FRONT EXTENDED THROUGH CENTRAL
MAINE. THE ECMWF IS SIMILAR BUT ABOUT 6 HRS BEHIND.
&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY.

SHORT TERM: CLR TO PC THROUGH SUN AFTERNOON...INCREASING CLOUDS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON FROM THE SW TO NE. VFR CONDITIONS ALL SITES
THROUGH EARLY SUN EVNG...MVFR BHB AND BGR SUN EVNG AS A LOW MOVES
ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND INTO THE GULF OF MAINE. IFR CONDITIONS
AFTER MIDNIGHT BHB...BGR...VFR OTHER SITES AS THE LOW MOVES
THROUGH THE COASTAL MAINE REGION. CONDITIONS RETURNING TO VFR MON
AFTERNOON ALL SITES.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS OVERNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. A FREEZING SPRAY
ADVISORY FOR MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY IS IN EFFECT OVERNIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING.

SHORT TERM: WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA SUN AND EARLY MON. WINDS AND
SEAS WILL BUILD AS A LOW TRACK ACROSS COASTAL REGIONS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVNGS AT THIS TIME WNDS APPEAR TO BE IN THE UPPER
END OF SCA LOWER END GALE FORCE. SEAS BUILDING TO AROUND 7 FT.
&&

.CLIMATE...
THIS FEBRUARY WILL END AS THE ALL-TIME COLDEST MONTH
ON RECORD AT BANGOR...AND THE COLDEST FEBRUARY AT CARIBOU. MORE
INFORMATION ON THE COLD FEBRUARY IS AVAILABLE ON THE NEWS
HEADLINES ON THE TOP OF OUR WEB PAGE AT WEATHER.GOV/CAR
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...NORCROSS/CB
SHORT TERM...NORTON
LONG TERM...NORTON
AVIATION...NORCROSS/NORTON
MARINE...NORCROSS/NORTON
CLIMATE...CB



000
FXUS61 KCAR 280314
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1014 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. LOW
PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY FROM
THE WEST. ANOTHER LOW WILL LIKELY CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT WITH CLEAR
SKIES AND COLD TEMPERATURES. GENERALLY EXPECT LOW TEMPERATURES
OVERNIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 10 TO 20 BELOW ZERO ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS...WITH 5 TO 10 BELOW ZERO ACROSS INTERIOR DOWNEAST AREAS AND
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST.
HOWEVER...LOCALLY COLDER TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADJUST FOR CURRENT
CONDITIONS ALONG WITH EXPECTED OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A SPRAWLING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED IN THE MIDWEST THIS
AFTERNOON COVERS A LOT OF REAL ESTATE FROM THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS TO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL
MOVE SLOWLY EAST AND WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE POCONOS DOWN INTO
THE TIDEWATER OF VIRGINIA BY 00Z SUNDAY. ALOFT...A QUASI-ZONAL
FLOW PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY WITH A COUPLE OF MINOR
SHORTWAVES TO PASS TO OUR SOUTH.

THE AIR MASS WILL SLOWLY MODERATE THROUGH SAT AND THE 925 MB TEMP
WHICH WAS -22C AT 12Z THIS MORNING AT CARIBOU IS EXPECTED TO RISE
TO AROUND -14C BY SAT AFTERNOON. SATURDAY WILL BE ANOTHER SUNNY
DAY AND WITH A MODERATION OF THE AIR MASS AS THE INVERSIONS BREAK
EXPECT TEMPS TO MODERATE SIGNIFICANTLY. BASED ON THE TEMPERATURES
THIS AFTERNOON GETTING WARMER THAN FORECAST DID RAISE THE HIGH
TEMPS A FEW DEGREES SAT AFTERNOON.
&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
THE MAJOR SYSTEMS. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE BUILT ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC COAST THATS AND NEW ENGLAND. A LOW OVER HUDSON BAY WITH
ITS ASSOCIATED ARCTIC FRONTAL SYSTEM...A SECOND LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM CENTERED IN THE FOUR CORNERS REGIONS WITH ITS ASSOCIATED
FRONT EXTENDING EAST INTO SRN IL. SUN MRNG THE HIGH BUILDS EAST
INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC...THE WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
OVR FOUR CORNERS EXTEND EAST INTO PA. THE ARCTIC FRONT EXTENDS
SOUTH INTO THE NRN PLAINS. BY SUN EVNG... THESE TWO LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MERGE OVER THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES REGION...THE GFS/NAM SHOWS
A NEW NEW LOW OVER LAKE ONTARIO. THE ECMWF SHOWS A BROAD AREA OF
LOWER PRESSURE IN THE SAME AREA. THE GEM SHOWS THE LOW OVR NRN KY.
THE NEW LOW WILL RAPIDLY DEEPEN AND MOVE EAST. THE GFS MOVES IT TO
VT/NH...THE ECMWF INTO SW GULF OF MAINE. THE GEM/NAM INTO THE SE
GULF OF MAINE. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...THE LOW WILL BE EAST OF
THE AREA...DRAWING ARCTIC AIR ONCE AGAIN INTO THE AREA AS A
CANADIAN HIGH BEGINS TO BUILD IN.

LOADED A BLEND OF THE GFS/NAM/GEM/ECMWF FOR T/TD/WND/POP. LOADED
NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS IN THE COASTAL WATERS. ADDED 15 PERCENT TO WINDS
FOR GUSTS OVER LAND...35 PERCENT FOR GUSTS OVER COASTAL WATERS.
&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED A LOW EXITING THE AREA OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES COMBINED WITH AN ADVANCING CANADIAN HIGH
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND VERY COLD AREA OVER THE AREA MON NGT. THE
HIGH WILL CREST OVER THE AREA TUES AFTERNOON...AS ANOTHER FRONTAL
SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE CNTRL US. BY EARLY WED MRNG THE FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO WRN MAINE. EARLY WED AFTERNOON THE FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH MAINE INTO NEW BRUNSWICK...THE ASSOCIATED LOW WILL MOVE TO
ERN QUEBEC. BY THURS MRNG THE LOW WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE
MARITIMES...A SECONDARY TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH NRN MAINE. A
RIDGE OF HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO WRN MAINE. A TROUGH WILL
MOVE THROUGH NRN MAINE EARLY MORNING FRI...OTHERWISE THE RIDGE
WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER INTO EARLY SATURDAY. A NEW LOW WILL MOVE
SE OUT OF NW CANADA ON THURS EVNG...TO LAKE SUPERIOR FRI
AFTERNOON. THE GFS SHOWS ITS ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
WRN MAINE EARLY SAT MRNG AND BY THE END OF THE PERIOD THE LOW WILL
BE OVER SWRN QUEBEC...WITH THE WARM FRONT EXTENDED THROUGH CENTRAL
MAINE. THE ECMWF IS SIMILAR BUT ABOUT 6 HRS BEHIND.
&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY.

SHORT TERM: CLR TO PC THROUGH SUN AFTERNOON...INCREASING CLOUDS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON FROM THE SW TO NE. VFR CONDITIONS ALL SITES
THROUGH EARLY SUN EVNG...MVFR BHB AND BGR SUN EVNG AS A LOW MOVES
ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND INTO THE GULF OF MAINE. IFR CONDITIONS
AFTER MIDNIGHT BHB...BGR...VFR OTHER SITES AS THE LOW MOVES
THROUGH THE COASTAL MAINE REGION. CONDITIONS RETURNING TO VFR MON
AFTERNOON ALL SITES.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS OVERNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. A FREEZING SPRAY
ADVISORY FOR MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY IS IN EFFECT OVERNIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING.

SHORT TERM: WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA SUN AND EARLY MON. WINDS AND
SEAS WILL BUILD AS A LOW TRACK ACROSS COASTAL REGIONS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVNGS AT THIS TIME WNDS APPEAR TO BE IN THE UPPER
END OF SCA LOWER END GALE FORCE. SEAS BUILDING TO AROUND 7 FT.
&&

.CLIMATE...
THIS FEBRUARY WILL END AS THE ALL-TIME COLDEST MONTH
ON RECORD AT BANGOR...AND THE COLDEST FEBRUARY AT CARIBOU. MORE
INFORMATION ON THE COLD FEBRUARY IS AVAILABLE ON THE NEWS
HEADLINES ON THE TOP OF OUR WEB PAGE AT WEATHER.GOV/CAR
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...NORCROSS/CB
SHORT TERM...NORTON
LONG TERM...NORTON
AVIATION...NORCROSS/NORTON
MARINE...NORCROSS/NORTON
CLIMATE...CB




000
FXUS61 KGYX 280233
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
933 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY AND WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY. A
WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST SUNDAY NIGHT
AND WILL QUICKLY SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST MONDAY NIGHT AND WILL CREST OVER THE
REGION ON TUESDAY BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST OUT OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT AND WILL
PASS NORTHWEST OF THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
930PM UPDATE...
UPDATED LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST AGAIN. ALREADY BELOW ZERO AT
LEBANON... WHITEFIELD... BERLIN... AND JAFFREY. JAFFREY MAY NOT BE
REPRESENTATIVE OF THE BROADER AREA BUT DOES REPRESENT GOOD VALLEY
COOLING. EVEN WISCASSET IS DOWN TO 2 ABOVE THIS HOUR. CURRENTLY DO
NOT EXPECT NORTHERN VALLEYS TO MAKE IT TO 30 BELOW TONIGHT DUE TO
SOME SLIGHTLY BETTER DEWPOINTS... BUT WE`VE BEEN WRONG ON THAT
BEFORE. LATEST FORECAST REPRESENTS BEST GUESS AT OVERNIGHT LOWS
AREAWIDE. MOST SPOTS GET BELOW ZERO AT SOME POINT... THOUGH THE
LARGER TOWNS ARE STILL HANGING IN THE TEENS AT THIS HOUR. CLEAR
SKY AND LIGHT WINDS REALLY PROVIDING GOOD COOLING CONDITIONS
TONIGHT.

7PM UPDATE...
HAVE MADE A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES.
COMPARED TO THIS MORNING TEMPERATURES JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE SHOULD
BE A FEW DEGREES COLDER. IN GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS
THERE IS ALWAYS HIGH BUST POTENTIAL IN THE FORECAST AS LOCAL COOL
SPOTS CAN DROP VERY QUICKLY. ONLY ADJUSTMENTS WITH THIS UPDATE
WERE TO BRING TYPICAL COOL SPOT WISCASSET DOWN A FEW DEGREES. ALSO
DROPPED SOUTHWEST NEW HAMPSHIRE BY A FEW DEGREES TO BRING THEM
COLDER THAN THEY WERE THIS MORNING AND MORE IN LINE WITH FORECASTS
FROM NEIGHBORING OFFICES. SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW ZERO
THERE AS WELL AS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON...BRANCHING TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND TO THE EAST.
WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXITING THE COAST AT THIS HOUR AS WELL. THIS
BOUNDARY IS MORE PERCEPTIBLE ALOFT...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR
MOVING IN. AT THE SURFACE IT IS MOSTLY A NW WIND...WHICH COMBINED
WITH SUNNY SKIES IS ALLOWING SOME DOWNSLOPE WARMING WELL INTO THE
20S NEAR THE COAST.

SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SETTLES OVERHEAD TONIGHT HOWEVER...AND SKIES
REMAIN CLEAR. CONDITIONS LOOK FAVORABLE FOR DECOUPLING OF THE
BOUNDARY LAYER. SUCH A SMALL SCALE PROCESS IS ALWAYS QUITE
DIFFICULT TO FORECAST...BUT GENERALLY LEANED TOWARDS THE COLDER
MET GUIDANCE AND LOWERED THE USUAL COLD SPOTS A COUPLE MORE
DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL SATURDAY...WITH SKIES REMAINING
MOSTLY SUNNY. GUIDANCE HAS STRUGGLED THE LAST FEW DAYS WITH
SUNSHINE...KEEPING MAX TEMPERATURES ON THE COLD SIDE. BLENDED
MAV/MET WITH CMC-REGIONAL AND NAM12 2 M TEMPERATURES FOR MAX
TEMPERATURES...THEN RAISED A COUPLE DEGREES TO OVERCOME THAT COOL
BIAS.

TEMPERATURES WARM ALOFT SATURDAY NIGHT...SO NOT EXPECTING MIN
TEMPERATURES QUITE AS COLD AS TONIGHT. INITIALLY SURFACE RIDGE
AXIS REMAINS ALIGNED QUITE FAVORABLY FOR THE AREA...SO A QUICK
DROP IN TEMPERATURES IN LIKELY. AS RIDGE AXIS SLOWLY SINKS
SOUTH...THE COMBINATION OF SLIGHT MIXING AND WARMING ALOFT SHOULD
LEVEL TEMPERATURES OFF.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A BROAD AREA OF WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL ENTER THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS
WILL ALLOW LIGHT SNOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY EVENING.
THIS SYSTEM IS PROGRESSIVE...WHICH WILL ALLOW ACCUMULATIONS TO BE
IN THE 2 TO 3 INCH RANGE.

DRIER AIR WILL BE USHERED INTO THE REGION ON STRONG NORTHWEST
WINDS ON MONDAY...HOWEVER THERE MAY BE A STRAY FLURRY LEFTOVER.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST...CRESTING OVER NEW ENGLAND ON
TUESDAY.

THE STORM TRACK HAS CHANGED...ALLOWING THE NEXT SYSTEM TO
POTENTIALLY PASS TO OUR WEST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
SUFFICIENTLY ENOUGH COLD AIR IN PLACE TUESDAY NIGHT TO ALLOW FOR
MOSTLY SNOW ACROSS MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE. HOWEVER...WARM AIR
EVENTUALLY MAKES IT IN ALOFT TO CHANGE MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION
OVER TO A PERIOD OF RAIN OR RAIN AND SNOW MIX BEFORE IT ENDS.

A FEW LEFTOVER RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY BEHIND A COLD
FRONT THAT WILL EVENTUALLY CHANGE OVER TO SNOW SHOWERS BY
THURSDAY.

ANOTHER BRIEF SHOT OF VERY COLD AIR IS LIKELY TOWARDS THE END OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU SUNDAY MORNING.

LONG TERM...AREAS OF IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT. SNOW TO
MIX WILL LEAD TO IFR CONDITIONS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS THRU
SUNDAY MORNING. BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL LEAD TO
MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY NORTH OF CAPE ELIZABETH...AND ADVISORY IS
IN EFFECT THRU 12Z SATURDAY.

LONG TERM...WINDS SHOULD INCREASE TO SCAS MONDAY NIGHT BEHIND
DEPARTING AND STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
MARITIMES. GUSTY WINDS NEXT THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS WELL OUT
OF THE WEST.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ150>152.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM UPDATE...KIMBLE
SHORT TERM...LEGRO
LONG TERM...CANNON
AVIATION...CANNON/LEGRO
MARINE...CANNON/LEGRO




000
FXUS61 KGYX 280233
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
933 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY AND WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY. A
WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST SUNDAY NIGHT
AND WILL QUICKLY SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST MONDAY NIGHT AND WILL CREST OVER THE
REGION ON TUESDAY BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST OUT OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT AND WILL
PASS NORTHWEST OF THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
930PM UPDATE...
UPDATED LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST AGAIN. ALREADY BELOW ZERO AT
LEBANON... WHITEFIELD... BERLIN... AND JAFFREY. JAFFREY MAY NOT BE
REPRESENTATIVE OF THE BROADER AREA BUT DOES REPRESENT GOOD VALLEY
COOLING. EVEN WISCASSET IS DOWN TO 2 ABOVE THIS HOUR. CURRENTLY DO
NOT EXPECT NORTHERN VALLEYS TO MAKE IT TO 30 BELOW TONIGHT DUE TO
SOME SLIGHTLY BETTER DEWPOINTS... BUT WE`VE BEEN WRONG ON THAT
BEFORE. LATEST FORECAST REPRESENTS BEST GUESS AT OVERNIGHT LOWS
AREAWIDE. MOST SPOTS GET BELOW ZERO AT SOME POINT... THOUGH THE
LARGER TOWNS ARE STILL HANGING IN THE TEENS AT THIS HOUR. CLEAR
SKY AND LIGHT WINDS REALLY PROVIDING GOOD COOLING CONDITIONS
TONIGHT.

7PM UPDATE...
HAVE MADE A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES.
COMPARED TO THIS MORNING TEMPERATURES JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE SHOULD
BE A FEW DEGREES COLDER. IN GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS
THERE IS ALWAYS HIGH BUST POTENTIAL IN THE FORECAST AS LOCAL COOL
SPOTS CAN DROP VERY QUICKLY. ONLY ADJUSTMENTS WITH THIS UPDATE
WERE TO BRING TYPICAL COOL SPOT WISCASSET DOWN A FEW DEGREES. ALSO
DROPPED SOUTHWEST NEW HAMPSHIRE BY A FEW DEGREES TO BRING THEM
COLDER THAN THEY WERE THIS MORNING AND MORE IN LINE WITH FORECASTS
FROM NEIGHBORING OFFICES. SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW ZERO
THERE AS WELL AS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON...BRANCHING TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND TO THE EAST.
WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXITING THE COAST AT THIS HOUR AS WELL. THIS
BOUNDARY IS MORE PERCEPTIBLE ALOFT...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR
MOVING IN. AT THE SURFACE IT IS MOSTLY A NW WIND...WHICH COMBINED
WITH SUNNY SKIES IS ALLOWING SOME DOWNSLOPE WARMING WELL INTO THE
20S NEAR THE COAST.

SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SETTLES OVERHEAD TONIGHT HOWEVER...AND SKIES
REMAIN CLEAR. CONDITIONS LOOK FAVORABLE FOR DECOUPLING OF THE
BOUNDARY LAYER. SUCH A SMALL SCALE PROCESS IS ALWAYS QUITE
DIFFICULT TO FORECAST...BUT GENERALLY LEANED TOWARDS THE COLDER
MET GUIDANCE AND LOWERED THE USUAL COLD SPOTS A COUPLE MORE
DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL SATURDAY...WITH SKIES REMAINING
MOSTLY SUNNY. GUIDANCE HAS STRUGGLED THE LAST FEW DAYS WITH
SUNSHINE...KEEPING MAX TEMPERATURES ON THE COLD SIDE. BLENDED
MAV/MET WITH CMC-REGIONAL AND NAM12 2 M TEMPERATURES FOR MAX
TEMPERATURES...THEN RAISED A COUPLE DEGREES TO OVERCOME THAT COOL
BIAS.

TEMPERATURES WARM ALOFT SATURDAY NIGHT...SO NOT EXPECTING MIN
TEMPERATURES QUITE AS COLD AS TONIGHT. INITIALLY SURFACE RIDGE
AXIS REMAINS ALIGNED QUITE FAVORABLY FOR THE AREA...SO A QUICK
DROP IN TEMPERATURES IN LIKELY. AS RIDGE AXIS SLOWLY SINKS
SOUTH...THE COMBINATION OF SLIGHT MIXING AND WARMING ALOFT SHOULD
LEVEL TEMPERATURES OFF.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A BROAD AREA OF WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL ENTER THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS
WILL ALLOW LIGHT SNOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY EVENING.
THIS SYSTEM IS PROGRESSIVE...WHICH WILL ALLOW ACCUMULATIONS TO BE
IN THE 2 TO 3 INCH RANGE.

DRIER AIR WILL BE USHERED INTO THE REGION ON STRONG NORTHWEST
WINDS ON MONDAY...HOWEVER THERE MAY BE A STRAY FLURRY LEFTOVER.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST...CRESTING OVER NEW ENGLAND ON
TUESDAY.

THE STORM TRACK HAS CHANGED...ALLOWING THE NEXT SYSTEM TO
POTENTIALLY PASS TO OUR WEST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
SUFFICIENTLY ENOUGH COLD AIR IN PLACE TUESDAY NIGHT TO ALLOW FOR
MOSTLY SNOW ACROSS MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE. HOWEVER...WARM AIR
EVENTUALLY MAKES IT IN ALOFT TO CHANGE MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION
OVER TO A PERIOD OF RAIN OR RAIN AND SNOW MIX BEFORE IT ENDS.

A FEW LEFTOVER RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY BEHIND A COLD
FRONT THAT WILL EVENTUALLY CHANGE OVER TO SNOW SHOWERS BY
THURSDAY.

ANOTHER BRIEF SHOT OF VERY COLD AIR IS LIKELY TOWARDS THE END OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU SUNDAY MORNING.

LONG TERM...AREAS OF IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT. SNOW TO
MIX WILL LEAD TO IFR CONDITIONS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS THRU
SUNDAY MORNING. BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL LEAD TO
MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY NORTH OF CAPE ELIZABETH...AND ADVISORY IS
IN EFFECT THRU 12Z SATURDAY.

LONG TERM...WINDS SHOULD INCREASE TO SCAS MONDAY NIGHT BEHIND
DEPARTING AND STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
MARITIMES. GUSTY WINDS NEXT THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS WELL OUT
OF THE WEST.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ150>152.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM UPDATE...KIMBLE
SHORT TERM...LEGRO
LONG TERM...CANNON
AVIATION...CANNON/LEGRO
MARINE...CANNON/LEGRO



000
FXUS61 KGYX 280233
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
933 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY AND WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY. A
WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST SUNDAY NIGHT
AND WILL QUICKLY SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST MONDAY NIGHT AND WILL CREST OVER THE
REGION ON TUESDAY BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST OUT OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT AND WILL
PASS NORTHWEST OF THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
930PM UPDATE...
UPDATED LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST AGAIN. ALREADY BELOW ZERO AT
LEBANON... WHITEFIELD... BERLIN... AND JAFFREY. JAFFREY MAY NOT BE
REPRESENTATIVE OF THE BROADER AREA BUT DOES REPRESENT GOOD VALLEY
COOLING. EVEN WISCASSET IS DOWN TO 2 ABOVE THIS HOUR. CURRENTLY DO
NOT EXPECT NORTHERN VALLEYS TO MAKE IT TO 30 BELOW TONIGHT DUE TO
SOME SLIGHTLY BETTER DEWPOINTS... BUT WE`VE BEEN WRONG ON THAT
BEFORE. LATEST FORECAST REPRESENTS BEST GUESS AT OVERNIGHT LOWS
AREAWIDE. MOST SPOTS GET BELOW ZERO AT SOME POINT... THOUGH THE
LARGER TOWNS ARE STILL HANGING IN THE TEENS AT THIS HOUR. CLEAR
SKY AND LIGHT WINDS REALLY PROVIDING GOOD COOLING CONDITIONS
TONIGHT.

7PM UPDATE...
HAVE MADE A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES.
COMPARED TO THIS MORNING TEMPERATURES JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE SHOULD
BE A FEW DEGREES COLDER. IN GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS
THERE IS ALWAYS HIGH BUST POTENTIAL IN THE FORECAST AS LOCAL COOL
SPOTS CAN DROP VERY QUICKLY. ONLY ADJUSTMENTS WITH THIS UPDATE
WERE TO BRING TYPICAL COOL SPOT WISCASSET DOWN A FEW DEGREES. ALSO
DROPPED SOUTHWEST NEW HAMPSHIRE BY A FEW DEGREES TO BRING THEM
COLDER THAN THEY WERE THIS MORNING AND MORE IN LINE WITH FORECASTS
FROM NEIGHBORING OFFICES. SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW ZERO
THERE AS WELL AS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON...BRANCHING TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND TO THE EAST.
WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXITING THE COAST AT THIS HOUR AS WELL. THIS
BOUNDARY IS MORE PERCEPTIBLE ALOFT...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR
MOVING IN. AT THE SURFACE IT IS MOSTLY A NW WIND...WHICH COMBINED
WITH SUNNY SKIES IS ALLOWING SOME DOWNSLOPE WARMING WELL INTO THE
20S NEAR THE COAST.

SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SETTLES OVERHEAD TONIGHT HOWEVER...AND SKIES
REMAIN CLEAR. CONDITIONS LOOK FAVORABLE FOR DECOUPLING OF THE
BOUNDARY LAYER. SUCH A SMALL SCALE PROCESS IS ALWAYS QUITE
DIFFICULT TO FORECAST...BUT GENERALLY LEANED TOWARDS THE COLDER
MET GUIDANCE AND LOWERED THE USUAL COLD SPOTS A COUPLE MORE
DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL SATURDAY...WITH SKIES REMAINING
MOSTLY SUNNY. GUIDANCE HAS STRUGGLED THE LAST FEW DAYS WITH
SUNSHINE...KEEPING MAX TEMPERATURES ON THE COLD SIDE. BLENDED
MAV/MET WITH CMC-REGIONAL AND NAM12 2 M TEMPERATURES FOR MAX
TEMPERATURES...THEN RAISED A COUPLE DEGREES TO OVERCOME THAT COOL
BIAS.

TEMPERATURES WARM ALOFT SATURDAY NIGHT...SO NOT EXPECTING MIN
TEMPERATURES QUITE AS COLD AS TONIGHT. INITIALLY SURFACE RIDGE
AXIS REMAINS ALIGNED QUITE FAVORABLY FOR THE AREA...SO A QUICK
DROP IN TEMPERATURES IN LIKELY. AS RIDGE AXIS SLOWLY SINKS
SOUTH...THE COMBINATION OF SLIGHT MIXING AND WARMING ALOFT SHOULD
LEVEL TEMPERATURES OFF.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A BROAD AREA OF WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL ENTER THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS
WILL ALLOW LIGHT SNOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY EVENING.
THIS SYSTEM IS PROGRESSIVE...WHICH WILL ALLOW ACCUMULATIONS TO BE
IN THE 2 TO 3 INCH RANGE.

DRIER AIR WILL BE USHERED INTO THE REGION ON STRONG NORTHWEST
WINDS ON MONDAY...HOWEVER THERE MAY BE A STRAY FLURRY LEFTOVER.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST...CRESTING OVER NEW ENGLAND ON
TUESDAY.

THE STORM TRACK HAS CHANGED...ALLOWING THE NEXT SYSTEM TO
POTENTIALLY PASS TO OUR WEST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
SUFFICIENTLY ENOUGH COLD AIR IN PLACE TUESDAY NIGHT TO ALLOW FOR
MOSTLY SNOW ACROSS MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE. HOWEVER...WARM AIR
EVENTUALLY MAKES IT IN ALOFT TO CHANGE MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION
OVER TO A PERIOD OF RAIN OR RAIN AND SNOW MIX BEFORE IT ENDS.

A FEW LEFTOVER RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY BEHIND A COLD
FRONT THAT WILL EVENTUALLY CHANGE OVER TO SNOW SHOWERS BY
THURSDAY.

ANOTHER BRIEF SHOT OF VERY COLD AIR IS LIKELY TOWARDS THE END OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU SUNDAY MORNING.

LONG TERM...AREAS OF IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT. SNOW TO
MIX WILL LEAD TO IFR CONDITIONS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS THRU
SUNDAY MORNING. BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL LEAD TO
MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY NORTH OF CAPE ELIZABETH...AND ADVISORY IS
IN EFFECT THRU 12Z SATURDAY.

LONG TERM...WINDS SHOULD INCREASE TO SCAS MONDAY NIGHT BEHIND
DEPARTING AND STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
MARITIMES. GUSTY WINDS NEXT THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS WELL OUT
OF THE WEST.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ150>152.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM UPDATE...KIMBLE
SHORT TERM...LEGRO
LONG TERM...CANNON
AVIATION...CANNON/LEGRO
MARINE...CANNON/LEGRO




000
FXUS61 KGYX 280233
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
933 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY AND WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY. A
WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST SUNDAY NIGHT
AND WILL QUICKLY SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST MONDAY NIGHT AND WILL CREST OVER THE
REGION ON TUESDAY BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST OUT OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT AND WILL
PASS NORTHWEST OF THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
930PM UPDATE...
UPDATED LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST AGAIN. ALREADY BELOW ZERO AT
LEBANON... WHITEFIELD... BERLIN... AND JAFFREY. JAFFREY MAY NOT BE
REPRESENTATIVE OF THE BROADER AREA BUT DOES REPRESENT GOOD VALLEY
COOLING. EVEN WISCASSET IS DOWN TO 2 ABOVE THIS HOUR. CURRENTLY DO
NOT EXPECT NORTHERN VALLEYS TO MAKE IT TO 30 BELOW TONIGHT DUE TO
SOME SLIGHTLY BETTER DEWPOINTS... BUT WE`VE BEEN WRONG ON THAT
BEFORE. LATEST FORECAST REPRESENTS BEST GUESS AT OVERNIGHT LOWS
AREAWIDE. MOST SPOTS GET BELOW ZERO AT SOME POINT... THOUGH THE
LARGER TOWNS ARE STILL HANGING IN THE TEENS AT THIS HOUR. CLEAR
SKY AND LIGHT WINDS REALLY PROVIDING GOOD COOLING CONDITIONS
TONIGHT.

7PM UPDATE...
HAVE MADE A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES.
COMPARED TO THIS MORNING TEMPERATURES JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE SHOULD
BE A FEW DEGREES COLDER. IN GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS
THERE IS ALWAYS HIGH BUST POTENTIAL IN THE FORECAST AS LOCAL COOL
SPOTS CAN DROP VERY QUICKLY. ONLY ADJUSTMENTS WITH THIS UPDATE
WERE TO BRING TYPICAL COOL SPOT WISCASSET DOWN A FEW DEGREES. ALSO
DROPPED SOUTHWEST NEW HAMPSHIRE BY A FEW DEGREES TO BRING THEM
COLDER THAN THEY WERE THIS MORNING AND MORE IN LINE WITH FORECASTS
FROM NEIGHBORING OFFICES. SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW ZERO
THERE AS WELL AS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON...BRANCHING TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND TO THE EAST.
WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXITING THE COAST AT THIS HOUR AS WELL. THIS
BOUNDARY IS MORE PERCEPTIBLE ALOFT...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR
MOVING IN. AT THE SURFACE IT IS MOSTLY A NW WIND...WHICH COMBINED
WITH SUNNY SKIES IS ALLOWING SOME DOWNSLOPE WARMING WELL INTO THE
20S NEAR THE COAST.

SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SETTLES OVERHEAD TONIGHT HOWEVER...AND SKIES
REMAIN CLEAR. CONDITIONS LOOK FAVORABLE FOR DECOUPLING OF THE
BOUNDARY LAYER. SUCH A SMALL SCALE PROCESS IS ALWAYS QUITE
DIFFICULT TO FORECAST...BUT GENERALLY LEANED TOWARDS THE COLDER
MET GUIDANCE AND LOWERED THE USUAL COLD SPOTS A COUPLE MORE
DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL SATURDAY...WITH SKIES REMAINING
MOSTLY SUNNY. GUIDANCE HAS STRUGGLED THE LAST FEW DAYS WITH
SUNSHINE...KEEPING MAX TEMPERATURES ON THE COLD SIDE. BLENDED
MAV/MET WITH CMC-REGIONAL AND NAM12 2 M TEMPERATURES FOR MAX
TEMPERATURES...THEN RAISED A COUPLE DEGREES TO OVERCOME THAT COOL
BIAS.

TEMPERATURES WARM ALOFT SATURDAY NIGHT...SO NOT EXPECTING MIN
TEMPERATURES QUITE AS COLD AS TONIGHT. INITIALLY SURFACE RIDGE
AXIS REMAINS ALIGNED QUITE FAVORABLY FOR THE AREA...SO A QUICK
DROP IN TEMPERATURES IN LIKELY. AS RIDGE AXIS SLOWLY SINKS
SOUTH...THE COMBINATION OF SLIGHT MIXING AND WARMING ALOFT SHOULD
LEVEL TEMPERATURES OFF.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A BROAD AREA OF WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL ENTER THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS
WILL ALLOW LIGHT SNOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY EVENING.
THIS SYSTEM IS PROGRESSIVE...WHICH WILL ALLOW ACCUMULATIONS TO BE
IN THE 2 TO 3 INCH RANGE.

DRIER AIR WILL BE USHERED INTO THE REGION ON STRONG NORTHWEST
WINDS ON MONDAY...HOWEVER THERE MAY BE A STRAY FLURRY LEFTOVER.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST...CRESTING OVER NEW ENGLAND ON
TUESDAY.

THE STORM TRACK HAS CHANGED...ALLOWING THE NEXT SYSTEM TO
POTENTIALLY PASS TO OUR WEST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
SUFFICIENTLY ENOUGH COLD AIR IN PLACE TUESDAY NIGHT TO ALLOW FOR
MOSTLY SNOW ACROSS MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE. HOWEVER...WARM AIR
EVENTUALLY MAKES IT IN ALOFT TO CHANGE MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION
OVER TO A PERIOD OF RAIN OR RAIN AND SNOW MIX BEFORE IT ENDS.

A FEW LEFTOVER RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY BEHIND A COLD
FRONT THAT WILL EVENTUALLY CHANGE OVER TO SNOW SHOWERS BY
THURSDAY.

ANOTHER BRIEF SHOT OF VERY COLD AIR IS LIKELY TOWARDS THE END OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU SUNDAY MORNING.

LONG TERM...AREAS OF IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT. SNOW TO
MIX WILL LEAD TO IFR CONDITIONS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS THRU
SUNDAY MORNING. BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL LEAD TO
MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY NORTH OF CAPE ELIZABETH...AND ADVISORY IS
IN EFFECT THRU 12Z SATURDAY.

LONG TERM...WINDS SHOULD INCREASE TO SCAS MONDAY NIGHT BEHIND
DEPARTING AND STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
MARITIMES. GUSTY WINDS NEXT THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS WELL OUT
OF THE WEST.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ150>152.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM UPDATE...KIMBLE
SHORT TERM...LEGRO
LONG TERM...CANNON
AVIATION...CANNON/LEGRO
MARINE...CANNON/LEGRO




000
FXUS61 KGYX 280233
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
933 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY AND WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY. A
WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST SUNDAY NIGHT
AND WILL QUICKLY SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST MONDAY NIGHT AND WILL CREST OVER THE
REGION ON TUESDAY BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST OUT OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT AND WILL
PASS NORTHWEST OF THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
930PM UPDATE...
UPDATED LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST AGAIN. ALREADY BELOW ZERO AT
LEBANON... WHITEFIELD... BERLIN... AND JAFFREY. JAFFREY MAY NOT BE
REPRESENTATIVE OF THE BROADER AREA BUT DOES REPRESENT GOOD VALLEY
COOLING. EVEN WISCASSET IS DOWN TO 2 ABOVE THIS HOUR. CURRENTLY DO
NOT EXPECT NORTHERN VALLEYS TO MAKE IT TO 30 BELOW TONIGHT DUE TO
SOME SLIGHTLY BETTER DEWPOINTS... BUT WE`VE BEEN WRONG ON THAT
BEFORE. LATEST FORECAST REPRESENTS BEST GUESS AT OVERNIGHT LOWS
AREAWIDE. MOST SPOTS GET BELOW ZERO AT SOME POINT... THOUGH THE
LARGER TOWNS ARE STILL HANGING IN THE TEENS AT THIS HOUR. CLEAR
SKY AND LIGHT WINDS REALLY PROVIDING GOOD COOLING CONDITIONS
TONIGHT.

7PM UPDATE...
HAVE MADE A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES.
COMPARED TO THIS MORNING TEMPERATURES JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE SHOULD
BE A FEW DEGREES COLDER. IN GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS
THERE IS ALWAYS HIGH BUST POTENTIAL IN THE FORECAST AS LOCAL COOL
SPOTS CAN DROP VERY QUICKLY. ONLY ADJUSTMENTS WITH THIS UPDATE
WERE TO BRING TYPICAL COOL SPOT WISCASSET DOWN A FEW DEGREES. ALSO
DROPPED SOUTHWEST NEW HAMPSHIRE BY A FEW DEGREES TO BRING THEM
COLDER THAN THEY WERE THIS MORNING AND MORE IN LINE WITH FORECASTS
FROM NEIGHBORING OFFICES. SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW ZERO
THERE AS WELL AS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON...BRANCHING TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND TO THE EAST.
WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXITING THE COAST AT THIS HOUR AS WELL. THIS
BOUNDARY IS MORE PERCEPTIBLE ALOFT...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR
MOVING IN. AT THE SURFACE IT IS MOSTLY A NW WIND...WHICH COMBINED
WITH SUNNY SKIES IS ALLOWING SOME DOWNSLOPE WARMING WELL INTO THE
20S NEAR THE COAST.

SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SETTLES OVERHEAD TONIGHT HOWEVER...AND SKIES
REMAIN CLEAR. CONDITIONS LOOK FAVORABLE FOR DECOUPLING OF THE
BOUNDARY LAYER. SUCH A SMALL SCALE PROCESS IS ALWAYS QUITE
DIFFICULT TO FORECAST...BUT GENERALLY LEANED TOWARDS THE COLDER
MET GUIDANCE AND LOWERED THE USUAL COLD SPOTS A COUPLE MORE
DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL SATURDAY...WITH SKIES REMAINING
MOSTLY SUNNY. GUIDANCE HAS STRUGGLED THE LAST FEW DAYS WITH
SUNSHINE...KEEPING MAX TEMPERATURES ON THE COLD SIDE. BLENDED
MAV/MET WITH CMC-REGIONAL AND NAM12 2 M TEMPERATURES FOR MAX
TEMPERATURES...THEN RAISED A COUPLE DEGREES TO OVERCOME THAT COOL
BIAS.

TEMPERATURES WARM ALOFT SATURDAY NIGHT...SO NOT EXPECTING MIN
TEMPERATURES QUITE AS COLD AS TONIGHT. INITIALLY SURFACE RIDGE
AXIS REMAINS ALIGNED QUITE FAVORABLY FOR THE AREA...SO A QUICK
DROP IN TEMPERATURES IN LIKELY. AS RIDGE AXIS SLOWLY SINKS
SOUTH...THE COMBINATION OF SLIGHT MIXING AND WARMING ALOFT SHOULD
LEVEL TEMPERATURES OFF.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A BROAD AREA OF WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL ENTER THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS
WILL ALLOW LIGHT SNOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY EVENING.
THIS SYSTEM IS PROGRESSIVE...WHICH WILL ALLOW ACCUMULATIONS TO BE
IN THE 2 TO 3 INCH RANGE.

DRIER AIR WILL BE USHERED INTO THE REGION ON STRONG NORTHWEST
WINDS ON MONDAY...HOWEVER THERE MAY BE A STRAY FLURRY LEFTOVER.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST...CRESTING OVER NEW ENGLAND ON
TUESDAY.

THE STORM TRACK HAS CHANGED...ALLOWING THE NEXT SYSTEM TO
POTENTIALLY PASS TO OUR WEST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
SUFFICIENTLY ENOUGH COLD AIR IN PLACE TUESDAY NIGHT TO ALLOW FOR
MOSTLY SNOW ACROSS MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE. HOWEVER...WARM AIR
EVENTUALLY MAKES IT IN ALOFT TO CHANGE MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION
OVER TO A PERIOD OF RAIN OR RAIN AND SNOW MIX BEFORE IT ENDS.

A FEW LEFTOVER RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY BEHIND A COLD
FRONT THAT WILL EVENTUALLY CHANGE OVER TO SNOW SHOWERS BY
THURSDAY.

ANOTHER BRIEF SHOT OF VERY COLD AIR IS LIKELY TOWARDS THE END OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU SUNDAY MORNING.

LONG TERM...AREAS OF IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT. SNOW TO
MIX WILL LEAD TO IFR CONDITIONS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS THRU
SUNDAY MORNING. BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL LEAD TO
MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY NORTH OF CAPE ELIZABETH...AND ADVISORY IS
IN EFFECT THRU 12Z SATURDAY.

LONG TERM...WINDS SHOULD INCREASE TO SCAS MONDAY NIGHT BEHIND
DEPARTING AND STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
MARITIMES. GUSTY WINDS NEXT THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS WELL OUT
OF THE WEST.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ150>152.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM UPDATE...KIMBLE
SHORT TERM...LEGRO
LONG TERM...CANNON
AVIATION...CANNON/LEGRO
MARINE...CANNON/LEGRO




000
FXUS61 KGYX 280233
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
933 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY AND WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY. A
WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST SUNDAY NIGHT
AND WILL QUICKLY SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST MONDAY NIGHT AND WILL CREST OVER THE
REGION ON TUESDAY BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST OUT OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT AND WILL
PASS NORTHWEST OF THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
930PM UPDATE...
UPDATED LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST AGAIN. ALREADY BELOW ZERO AT
LEBANON... WHITEFIELD... BERLIN... AND JAFFREY. JAFFREY MAY NOT BE
REPRESENTATIVE OF THE BROADER AREA BUT DOES REPRESENT GOOD VALLEY
COOLING. EVEN WISCASSET IS DOWN TO 2 ABOVE THIS HOUR. CURRENTLY DO
NOT EXPECT NORTHERN VALLEYS TO MAKE IT TO 30 BELOW TONIGHT DUE TO
SOME SLIGHTLY BETTER DEWPOINTS... BUT WE`VE BEEN WRONG ON THAT
BEFORE. LATEST FORECAST REPRESENTS BEST GUESS AT OVERNIGHT LOWS
AREAWIDE. MOST SPOTS GET BELOW ZERO AT SOME POINT... THOUGH THE
LARGER TOWNS ARE STILL HANGING IN THE TEENS AT THIS HOUR. CLEAR
SKY AND LIGHT WINDS REALLY PROVIDING GOOD COOLING CONDITIONS
TONIGHT.

7PM UPDATE...
HAVE MADE A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES.
COMPARED TO THIS MORNING TEMPERATURES JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE SHOULD
BE A FEW DEGREES COLDER. IN GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS
THERE IS ALWAYS HIGH BUST POTENTIAL IN THE FORECAST AS LOCAL COOL
SPOTS CAN DROP VERY QUICKLY. ONLY ADJUSTMENTS WITH THIS UPDATE
WERE TO BRING TYPICAL COOL SPOT WISCASSET DOWN A FEW DEGREES. ALSO
DROPPED SOUTHWEST NEW HAMPSHIRE BY A FEW DEGREES TO BRING THEM
COLDER THAN THEY WERE THIS MORNING AND MORE IN LINE WITH FORECASTS
FROM NEIGHBORING OFFICES. SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW ZERO
THERE AS WELL AS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON...BRANCHING TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND TO THE EAST.
WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXITING THE COAST AT THIS HOUR AS WELL. THIS
BOUNDARY IS MORE PERCEPTIBLE ALOFT...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR
MOVING IN. AT THE SURFACE IT IS MOSTLY A NW WIND...WHICH COMBINED
WITH SUNNY SKIES IS ALLOWING SOME DOWNSLOPE WARMING WELL INTO THE
20S NEAR THE COAST.

SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SETTLES OVERHEAD TONIGHT HOWEVER...AND SKIES
REMAIN CLEAR. CONDITIONS LOOK FAVORABLE FOR DECOUPLING OF THE
BOUNDARY LAYER. SUCH A SMALL SCALE PROCESS IS ALWAYS QUITE
DIFFICULT TO FORECAST...BUT GENERALLY LEANED TOWARDS THE COLDER
MET GUIDANCE AND LOWERED THE USUAL COLD SPOTS A COUPLE MORE
DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL SATURDAY...WITH SKIES REMAINING
MOSTLY SUNNY. GUIDANCE HAS STRUGGLED THE LAST FEW DAYS WITH
SUNSHINE...KEEPING MAX TEMPERATURES ON THE COLD SIDE. BLENDED
MAV/MET WITH CMC-REGIONAL AND NAM12 2 M TEMPERATURES FOR MAX
TEMPERATURES...THEN RAISED A COUPLE DEGREES TO OVERCOME THAT COOL
BIAS.

TEMPERATURES WARM ALOFT SATURDAY NIGHT...SO NOT EXPECTING MIN
TEMPERATURES QUITE AS COLD AS TONIGHT. INITIALLY SURFACE RIDGE
AXIS REMAINS ALIGNED QUITE FAVORABLY FOR THE AREA...SO A QUICK
DROP IN TEMPERATURES IN LIKELY. AS RIDGE AXIS SLOWLY SINKS
SOUTH...THE COMBINATION OF SLIGHT MIXING AND WARMING ALOFT SHOULD
LEVEL TEMPERATURES OFF.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A BROAD AREA OF WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL ENTER THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS
WILL ALLOW LIGHT SNOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY EVENING.
THIS SYSTEM IS PROGRESSIVE...WHICH WILL ALLOW ACCUMULATIONS TO BE
IN THE 2 TO 3 INCH RANGE.

DRIER AIR WILL BE USHERED INTO THE REGION ON STRONG NORTHWEST
WINDS ON MONDAY...HOWEVER THERE MAY BE A STRAY FLURRY LEFTOVER.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST...CRESTING OVER NEW ENGLAND ON
TUESDAY.

THE STORM TRACK HAS CHANGED...ALLOWING THE NEXT SYSTEM TO
POTENTIALLY PASS TO OUR WEST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
SUFFICIENTLY ENOUGH COLD AIR IN PLACE TUESDAY NIGHT TO ALLOW FOR
MOSTLY SNOW ACROSS MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE. HOWEVER...WARM AIR
EVENTUALLY MAKES IT IN ALOFT TO CHANGE MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION
OVER TO A PERIOD OF RAIN OR RAIN AND SNOW MIX BEFORE IT ENDS.

A FEW LEFTOVER RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY BEHIND A COLD
FRONT THAT WILL EVENTUALLY CHANGE OVER TO SNOW SHOWERS BY
THURSDAY.

ANOTHER BRIEF SHOT OF VERY COLD AIR IS LIKELY TOWARDS THE END OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU SUNDAY MORNING.

LONG TERM...AREAS OF IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT. SNOW TO
MIX WILL LEAD TO IFR CONDITIONS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS THRU
SUNDAY MORNING. BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL LEAD TO
MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY NORTH OF CAPE ELIZABETH...AND ADVISORY IS
IN EFFECT THRU 12Z SATURDAY.

LONG TERM...WINDS SHOULD INCREASE TO SCAS MONDAY NIGHT BEHIND
DEPARTING AND STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
MARITIMES. GUSTY WINDS NEXT THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS WELL OUT
OF THE WEST.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ150>152.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM UPDATE...KIMBLE
SHORT TERM...LEGRO
LONG TERM...CANNON
AVIATION...CANNON/LEGRO
MARINE...CANNON/LEGRO




000
FXUS61 KCAR 280059
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
759 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. LOW
PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY FROM
THE WEST. ANOTHER LOW WILL LIKELY CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WITH CLEAR
SKIES AND COLD TEMPERATURES. GENERALLY EXPECT LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 10 TO 20 BELOW ZERO ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS...WITH 5 TO 10 BELOW ZERO ACROSS INTERIOR DOWNEAST AREAS
AND ZERO TO 5 BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE DOWNEAST COAST.
HOWEVER...LOCALLY COLDER TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADJUST FOR CURRENT
CONDITIONS ALONG WITH EXPECTED OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A SPRAWLING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED IN THE MIDWEST THIS
AFTERNOON COVERS A LOT OF REAL ESTATE FROM THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS TO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL
MOVE SLOWLY EAST AND WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE POCONOS DOWN INTO
THE TIDEWATER OF VIRGINIA BY 00Z SUNDAY. ALOFT...A QUASI-ZONAL
FLOW PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY WITH A COUPLE OF MINOR
SHORTWAVES TO PASS TO OUR SOUTH.

THE AIR MASS WILL SLOWLY MODERATE THROUGH SAT AND THE 925 MB TEMP
WHICH WAS -22C AT 12Z THIS MORNING AT CARIBOU IS EXPECTED TO RISE
TO AROUND -14C BY SAT AFTERNOON. SATURDAY WILL BE ANOTHER SUNNY
DAY AND WITH A MODERATION OF THE AIR MASS AS THE INVERSIONS BREAK
EXPECT TEMPS TO MODERATE SIGNIFICANTLY. BASED ON THE TEMPERATURES
THIS AFTERNOON GETTING WARMER THAN FORECAST DID RAISE THE HIGH
TEMPS A FEW DEGREES SAT AFTERNOON.
&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
THE MAJOR SYSTEMS. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE BUILT ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC COAST THATS AND NEW ENGLAND. A LOW OVER HUDSON BAY WITH
ITS ASSOCIATED ARCTIC FRONTAL SYSTEM...A SECOND LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM CENTERED IN THE FOUR CORNERS REGIONS WITH ITS ASSOCIATED
FRONT EXTENDING EAST INTO SRN IL. SUN MRNG THE HIGH BUILDS EAST
INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC...THE WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
OVR FOUR CORNERS EXTEND EAST INTO PA. THE ARCTIC FRONT EXTENDS
SOUTH INTO THE NRN PLAINS. BY SUN EVNG... THESE TWO LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MERGE OVER THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES REGION...THE GFS/NAM SHOWS
A NEW NEW LOW OVER LAKE ONTARIO. THE ECMWF SHOWS A BROAD AREA OF
LOWER PRESSURE IN THE SAME AREA. THE GEM SHOWS THE LOW OVR NRN KY.
THE NEW LOW WILL RAPIDLY DEEPEN AND MOVE EAST. THE GFS MOVES IT TO
VT/NH...THE ECMWF INTO SW GULF OF MAINE. THE GEM/NAM INTO THE SE
GULF OF MAINE. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...THE LOW WILL BE EAST OF
THE AREA...DRAWING ARCTIC AIR ONCE AGAIN INTO THE AREA AS A
CANADIAN HIGH BEGINS TO BUILD IN.

LOADED A BLEND OF THE GFS/NAM/GEM/ECMWF FOR T/TD/WND/POP. LOADED
NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS IN THE COASTAL WATERS. ADDED 15 PERCENT TO WINDS
FOR GUSTS OVER LAND...35 PERCENT FOR GUSTS OVER COASTAL WATERS.
&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED A LOW EXITING THE AREA OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES COMBINED WITH AN ADVANCING CANADIAN HIGH
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND VERY COLD AREA OVER THE AREA MON NGT. THE
HIGH WILL CREST OVER THE AREA TUES AFTERNOON...AS ANOTHER FRONTAL
SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE CNTRL US. BY EARLY WED MRNG THE FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO WRN MAINE. EARLY WED AFTERNOON THE FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH MAINE INTO NEW BRUNSWICK...THE ASSOCIATED LOW WILL MOVE TO
ERN QUEBEC. BY THURS MRNG THE LOW WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE
MARITIMES...A SECONDARY TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH NRN MAINE. A
RIDGE OF HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO WRN MAINE. A TROUGH WILL
MOVE THROUGH NRN MAINE EARLY MORNING FRI...OTHERWISE THE RIDGE
WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER INTO EARLY SATURDAY. A NEW LOW WILL MOVE
SE OUT OF NW CANADA ON THURS EVNG...TO LAKE SUPERIOR FRI
AFTERNOON. THE GFS SHOWS ITS ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
WRN MAINE EARLY SAT MRNG AND BY THE END OF THE PERIOD THE LOW WILL
BE OVER SWRN QUEBEC...WITH THE WARM FRONT EXTENDED THROUGH CENTRAL
MAINE. THE ECMWF IS SIMILAR BUT ABOUT 6 HRS BEHIND.
&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

SHORT TERM: CLR TO PC THROUGH SUN AFTERNOON...INCREASING CLOUDS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON FROM THE SW TO NE. VFR CONDITIONS ALL SITES
THROUGH EARLY SUN EVNG...MVFR BHB AND BGR SUN EVNG AS A LOW MOVES
ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND INTO THE GULF OF MAINE. IFR CONDITIONS
AFTER MIDNIGHT BHB...BGR...VFR OTHER SITES AS THE LOW MOVES
THROUGH THE COASTAL MAINE REGION. CONDITIONS RETURNING TO VFR MON
AFTERNOON ALL SITES.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. A FREEZING SPRAY
ADVISORY FOR MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY IS IN EFFECT TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING.

SHORT TERM: WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA SUN AND EARLY MON. WINDS AND
SEAS WILL BUILD AS A LOW TRACK ACROSS COASTAL REGIONS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVNGS AT THIS TIME WNDS APPEAR TO BE IN THE UPPER
END OF SCA LOWER END GALE FORCE. SEAS BUILDING TO AROUND 7 FT.
&&

.CLIMATE...
THIS FEBRUARY WILL END AS THE ALL-TIME COLDEST MONTH
ON RECORD AT BANGOR...AND THE COLDEST FEBRUARY AT CARIBOU. MORE
INFORMATION ON THE COLD FEBRUARY IS AVAILABLE ON THE NEWS
HEADLINES ON THE TOP OF OUR WEB PAGE AT WEATHER.GOV/CAR
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...NORCROSS/CB
SHORT TERM...NORTON
LONG TERM...NORTON
AVIATION...NORCROSS/NORTON
MARINE...NORCROSS/NORTON
CLIMATE...CB



000
FXUS61 KCAR 280059
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
759 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. LOW
PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY FROM
THE WEST. ANOTHER LOW WILL LIKELY CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WITH CLEAR
SKIES AND COLD TEMPERATURES. GENERALLY EXPECT LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 10 TO 20 BELOW ZERO ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS...WITH 5 TO 10 BELOW ZERO ACROSS INTERIOR DOWNEAST AREAS
AND ZERO TO 5 BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE DOWNEAST COAST.
HOWEVER...LOCALLY COLDER TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADJUST FOR CURRENT
CONDITIONS ALONG WITH EXPECTED OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A SPRAWLING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED IN THE MIDWEST THIS
AFTERNOON COVERS A LOT OF REAL ESTATE FROM THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS TO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL
MOVE SLOWLY EAST AND WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE POCONOS DOWN INTO
THE TIDEWATER OF VIRGINIA BY 00Z SUNDAY. ALOFT...A QUASI-ZONAL
FLOW PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY WITH A COUPLE OF MINOR
SHORTWAVES TO PASS TO OUR SOUTH.

THE AIR MASS WILL SLOWLY MODERATE THROUGH SAT AND THE 925 MB TEMP
WHICH WAS -22C AT 12Z THIS MORNING AT CARIBOU IS EXPECTED TO RISE
TO AROUND -14C BY SAT AFTERNOON. SATURDAY WILL BE ANOTHER SUNNY
DAY AND WITH A MODERATION OF THE AIR MASS AS THE INVERSIONS BREAK
EXPECT TEMPS TO MODERATE SIGNIFICANTLY. BASED ON THE TEMPERATURES
THIS AFTERNOON GETTING WARMER THAN FORECAST DID RAISE THE HIGH
TEMPS A FEW DEGREES SAT AFTERNOON.
&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
THE MAJOR SYSTEMS. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE BUILT ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC COAST THATS AND NEW ENGLAND. A LOW OVER HUDSON BAY WITH
ITS ASSOCIATED ARCTIC FRONTAL SYSTEM...A SECOND LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM CENTERED IN THE FOUR CORNERS REGIONS WITH ITS ASSOCIATED
FRONT EXTENDING EAST INTO SRN IL. SUN MRNG THE HIGH BUILDS EAST
INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC...THE WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
OVR FOUR CORNERS EXTEND EAST INTO PA. THE ARCTIC FRONT EXTENDS
SOUTH INTO THE NRN PLAINS. BY SUN EVNG... THESE TWO LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MERGE OVER THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES REGION...THE GFS/NAM SHOWS
A NEW NEW LOW OVER LAKE ONTARIO. THE ECMWF SHOWS A BROAD AREA OF
LOWER PRESSURE IN THE SAME AREA. THE GEM SHOWS THE LOW OVR NRN KY.
THE NEW LOW WILL RAPIDLY DEEPEN AND MOVE EAST. THE GFS MOVES IT TO
VT/NH...THE ECMWF INTO SW GULF OF MAINE. THE GEM/NAM INTO THE SE
GULF OF MAINE. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...THE LOW WILL BE EAST OF
THE AREA...DRAWING ARCTIC AIR ONCE AGAIN INTO THE AREA AS A
CANADIAN HIGH BEGINS TO BUILD IN.

LOADED A BLEND OF THE GFS/NAM/GEM/ECMWF FOR T/TD/WND/POP. LOADED
NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS IN THE COASTAL WATERS. ADDED 15 PERCENT TO WINDS
FOR GUSTS OVER LAND...35 PERCENT FOR GUSTS OVER COASTAL WATERS.
&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED A LOW EXITING THE AREA OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES COMBINED WITH AN ADVANCING CANADIAN HIGH
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND VERY COLD AREA OVER THE AREA MON NGT. THE
HIGH WILL CREST OVER THE AREA TUES AFTERNOON...AS ANOTHER FRONTAL
SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE CNTRL US. BY EARLY WED MRNG THE FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO WRN MAINE. EARLY WED AFTERNOON THE FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH MAINE INTO NEW BRUNSWICK...THE ASSOCIATED LOW WILL MOVE TO
ERN QUEBEC. BY THURS MRNG THE LOW WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE
MARITIMES...A SECONDARY TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH NRN MAINE. A
RIDGE OF HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO WRN MAINE. A TROUGH WILL
MOVE THROUGH NRN MAINE EARLY MORNING FRI...OTHERWISE THE RIDGE
WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER INTO EARLY SATURDAY. A NEW LOW WILL MOVE
SE OUT OF NW CANADA ON THURS EVNG...TO LAKE SUPERIOR FRI
AFTERNOON. THE GFS SHOWS ITS ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
WRN MAINE EARLY SAT MRNG AND BY THE END OF THE PERIOD THE LOW WILL
BE OVER SWRN QUEBEC...WITH THE WARM FRONT EXTENDED THROUGH CENTRAL
MAINE. THE ECMWF IS SIMILAR BUT ABOUT 6 HRS BEHIND.
&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

SHORT TERM: CLR TO PC THROUGH SUN AFTERNOON...INCREASING CLOUDS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON FROM THE SW TO NE. VFR CONDITIONS ALL SITES
THROUGH EARLY SUN EVNG...MVFR BHB AND BGR SUN EVNG AS A LOW MOVES
ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND INTO THE GULF OF MAINE. IFR CONDITIONS
AFTER MIDNIGHT BHB...BGR...VFR OTHER SITES AS THE LOW MOVES
THROUGH THE COASTAL MAINE REGION. CONDITIONS RETURNING TO VFR MON
AFTERNOON ALL SITES.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. A FREEZING SPRAY
ADVISORY FOR MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY IS IN EFFECT TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING.

SHORT TERM: WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA SUN AND EARLY MON. WINDS AND
SEAS WILL BUILD AS A LOW TRACK ACROSS COASTAL REGIONS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVNGS AT THIS TIME WNDS APPEAR TO BE IN THE UPPER
END OF SCA LOWER END GALE FORCE. SEAS BUILDING TO AROUND 7 FT.
&&

.CLIMATE...
THIS FEBRUARY WILL END AS THE ALL-TIME COLDEST MONTH
ON RECORD AT BANGOR...AND THE COLDEST FEBRUARY AT CARIBOU. MORE
INFORMATION ON THE COLD FEBRUARY IS AVAILABLE ON THE NEWS
HEADLINES ON THE TOP OF OUR WEB PAGE AT WEATHER.GOV/CAR
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...NORCROSS/CB
SHORT TERM...NORTON
LONG TERM...NORTON
AVIATION...NORCROSS/NORTON
MARINE...NORCROSS/NORTON
CLIMATE...CB



000
FXUS61 KCAR 280059
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
759 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. LOW
PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY FROM
THE WEST. ANOTHER LOW WILL LIKELY CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WITH CLEAR
SKIES AND COLD TEMPERATURES. GENERALLY EXPECT LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 10 TO 20 BELOW ZERO ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS...WITH 5 TO 10 BELOW ZERO ACROSS INTERIOR DOWNEAST AREAS
AND ZERO TO 5 BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE DOWNEAST COAST.
HOWEVER...LOCALLY COLDER TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADJUST FOR CURRENT
CONDITIONS ALONG WITH EXPECTED OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A SPRAWLING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED IN THE MIDWEST THIS
AFTERNOON COVERS A LOT OF REAL ESTATE FROM THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS TO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL
MOVE SLOWLY EAST AND WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE POCONOS DOWN INTO
THE TIDEWATER OF VIRGINIA BY 00Z SUNDAY. ALOFT...A QUASI-ZONAL
FLOW PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY WITH A COUPLE OF MINOR
SHORTWAVES TO PASS TO OUR SOUTH.

THE AIR MASS WILL SLOWLY MODERATE THROUGH SAT AND THE 925 MB TEMP
WHICH WAS -22C AT 12Z THIS MORNING AT CARIBOU IS EXPECTED TO RISE
TO AROUND -14C BY SAT AFTERNOON. SATURDAY WILL BE ANOTHER SUNNY
DAY AND WITH A MODERATION OF THE AIR MASS AS THE INVERSIONS BREAK
EXPECT TEMPS TO MODERATE SIGNIFICANTLY. BASED ON THE TEMPERATURES
THIS AFTERNOON GETTING WARMER THAN FORECAST DID RAISE THE HIGH
TEMPS A FEW DEGREES SAT AFTERNOON.
&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
THE MAJOR SYSTEMS. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE BUILT ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC COAST THATS AND NEW ENGLAND. A LOW OVER HUDSON BAY WITH
ITS ASSOCIATED ARCTIC FRONTAL SYSTEM...A SECOND LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM CENTERED IN THE FOUR CORNERS REGIONS WITH ITS ASSOCIATED
FRONT EXTENDING EAST INTO SRN IL. SUN MRNG THE HIGH BUILDS EAST
INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC...THE WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
OVR FOUR CORNERS EXTEND EAST INTO PA. THE ARCTIC FRONT EXTENDS
SOUTH INTO THE NRN PLAINS. BY SUN EVNG... THESE TWO LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MERGE OVER THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES REGION...THE GFS/NAM SHOWS
A NEW NEW LOW OVER LAKE ONTARIO. THE ECMWF SHOWS A BROAD AREA OF
LOWER PRESSURE IN THE SAME AREA. THE GEM SHOWS THE LOW OVR NRN KY.
THE NEW LOW WILL RAPIDLY DEEPEN AND MOVE EAST. THE GFS MOVES IT TO
VT/NH...THE ECMWF INTO SW GULF OF MAINE. THE GEM/NAM INTO THE SE
GULF OF MAINE. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...THE LOW WILL BE EAST OF
THE AREA...DRAWING ARCTIC AIR ONCE AGAIN INTO THE AREA AS A
CANADIAN HIGH BEGINS TO BUILD IN.

LOADED A BLEND OF THE GFS/NAM/GEM/ECMWF FOR T/TD/WND/POP. LOADED
NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS IN THE COASTAL WATERS. ADDED 15 PERCENT TO WINDS
FOR GUSTS OVER LAND...35 PERCENT FOR GUSTS OVER COASTAL WATERS.
&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED A LOW EXITING THE AREA OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES COMBINED WITH AN ADVANCING CANADIAN HIGH
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND VERY COLD AREA OVER THE AREA MON NGT. THE
HIGH WILL CREST OVER THE AREA TUES AFTERNOON...AS ANOTHER FRONTAL
SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE CNTRL US. BY EARLY WED MRNG THE FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO WRN MAINE. EARLY WED AFTERNOON THE FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH MAINE INTO NEW BRUNSWICK...THE ASSOCIATED LOW WILL MOVE TO
ERN QUEBEC. BY THURS MRNG THE LOW WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE
MARITIMES...A SECONDARY TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH NRN MAINE. A
RIDGE OF HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO WRN MAINE. A TROUGH WILL
MOVE THROUGH NRN MAINE EARLY MORNING FRI...OTHERWISE THE RIDGE
WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER INTO EARLY SATURDAY. A NEW LOW WILL MOVE
SE OUT OF NW CANADA ON THURS EVNG...TO LAKE SUPERIOR FRI
AFTERNOON. THE GFS SHOWS ITS ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
WRN MAINE EARLY SAT MRNG AND BY THE END OF THE PERIOD THE LOW WILL
BE OVER SWRN QUEBEC...WITH THE WARM FRONT EXTENDED THROUGH CENTRAL
MAINE. THE ECMWF IS SIMILAR BUT ABOUT 6 HRS BEHIND.
&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

SHORT TERM: CLR TO PC THROUGH SUN AFTERNOON...INCREASING CLOUDS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON FROM THE SW TO NE. VFR CONDITIONS ALL SITES
THROUGH EARLY SUN EVNG...MVFR BHB AND BGR SUN EVNG AS A LOW MOVES
ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND INTO THE GULF OF MAINE. IFR CONDITIONS
AFTER MIDNIGHT BHB...BGR...VFR OTHER SITES AS THE LOW MOVES
THROUGH THE COASTAL MAINE REGION. CONDITIONS RETURNING TO VFR MON
AFTERNOON ALL SITES.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. A FREEZING SPRAY
ADVISORY FOR MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY IS IN EFFECT TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING.

SHORT TERM: WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA SUN AND EARLY MON. WINDS AND
SEAS WILL BUILD AS A LOW TRACK ACROSS COASTAL REGIONS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVNGS AT THIS TIME WNDS APPEAR TO BE IN THE UPPER
END OF SCA LOWER END GALE FORCE. SEAS BUILDING TO AROUND 7 FT.
&&

.CLIMATE...
THIS FEBRUARY WILL END AS THE ALL-TIME COLDEST MONTH
ON RECORD AT BANGOR...AND THE COLDEST FEBRUARY AT CARIBOU. MORE
INFORMATION ON THE COLD FEBRUARY IS AVAILABLE ON THE NEWS
HEADLINES ON THE TOP OF OUR WEB PAGE AT WEATHER.GOV/CAR
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...NORCROSS/CB
SHORT TERM...NORTON
LONG TERM...NORTON
AVIATION...NORCROSS/NORTON
MARINE...NORCROSS/NORTON
CLIMATE...CB



000
FXUS61 KCAR 280059
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
759 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. LOW
PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY FROM
THE WEST. ANOTHER LOW WILL LIKELY CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WITH CLEAR
SKIES AND COLD TEMPERATURES. GENERALLY EXPECT LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 10 TO 20 BELOW ZERO ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS...WITH 5 TO 10 BELOW ZERO ACROSS INTERIOR DOWNEAST AREAS
AND ZERO TO 5 BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE DOWNEAST COAST.
HOWEVER...LOCALLY COLDER TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADJUST FOR CURRENT
CONDITIONS ALONG WITH EXPECTED OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A SPRAWLING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED IN THE MIDWEST THIS
AFTERNOON COVERS A LOT OF REAL ESTATE FROM THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS TO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL
MOVE SLOWLY EAST AND WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE POCONOS DOWN INTO
THE TIDEWATER OF VIRGINIA BY 00Z SUNDAY. ALOFT...A QUASI-ZONAL
FLOW PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY WITH A COUPLE OF MINOR
SHORTWAVES TO PASS TO OUR SOUTH.

THE AIR MASS WILL SLOWLY MODERATE THROUGH SAT AND THE 925 MB TEMP
WHICH WAS -22C AT 12Z THIS MORNING AT CARIBOU IS EXPECTED TO RISE
TO AROUND -14C BY SAT AFTERNOON. SATURDAY WILL BE ANOTHER SUNNY
DAY AND WITH A MODERATION OF THE AIR MASS AS THE INVERSIONS BREAK
EXPECT TEMPS TO MODERATE SIGNIFICANTLY. BASED ON THE TEMPERATURES
THIS AFTERNOON GETTING WARMER THAN FORECAST DID RAISE THE HIGH
TEMPS A FEW DEGREES SAT AFTERNOON.
&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
THE MAJOR SYSTEMS. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE BUILT ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC COAST THATS AND NEW ENGLAND. A LOW OVER HUDSON BAY WITH
ITS ASSOCIATED ARCTIC FRONTAL SYSTEM...A SECOND LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM CENTERED IN THE FOUR CORNERS REGIONS WITH ITS ASSOCIATED
FRONT EXTENDING EAST INTO SRN IL. SUN MRNG THE HIGH BUILDS EAST
INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC...THE WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
OVR FOUR CORNERS EXTEND EAST INTO PA. THE ARCTIC FRONT EXTENDS
SOUTH INTO THE NRN PLAINS. BY SUN EVNG... THESE TWO LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MERGE OVER THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES REGION...THE GFS/NAM SHOWS
A NEW NEW LOW OVER LAKE ONTARIO. THE ECMWF SHOWS A BROAD AREA OF
LOWER PRESSURE IN THE SAME AREA. THE GEM SHOWS THE LOW OVR NRN KY.
THE NEW LOW WILL RAPIDLY DEEPEN AND MOVE EAST. THE GFS MOVES IT TO
VT/NH...THE ECMWF INTO SW GULF OF MAINE. THE GEM/NAM INTO THE SE
GULF OF MAINE. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...THE LOW WILL BE EAST OF
THE AREA...DRAWING ARCTIC AIR ONCE AGAIN INTO THE AREA AS A
CANADIAN HIGH BEGINS TO BUILD IN.

LOADED A BLEND OF THE GFS/NAM/GEM/ECMWF FOR T/TD/WND/POP. LOADED
NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS IN THE COASTAL WATERS. ADDED 15 PERCENT TO WINDS
FOR GUSTS OVER LAND...35 PERCENT FOR GUSTS OVER COASTAL WATERS.
&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED A LOW EXITING THE AREA OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES COMBINED WITH AN ADVANCING CANADIAN HIGH
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND VERY COLD AREA OVER THE AREA MON NGT. THE
HIGH WILL CREST OVER THE AREA TUES AFTERNOON...AS ANOTHER FRONTAL
SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE CNTRL US. BY EARLY WED MRNG THE FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO WRN MAINE. EARLY WED AFTERNOON THE FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH MAINE INTO NEW BRUNSWICK...THE ASSOCIATED LOW WILL MOVE TO
ERN QUEBEC. BY THURS MRNG THE LOW WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE
MARITIMES...A SECONDARY TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH NRN MAINE. A
RIDGE OF HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO WRN MAINE. A TROUGH WILL
MOVE THROUGH NRN MAINE EARLY MORNING FRI...OTHERWISE THE RIDGE
WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER INTO EARLY SATURDAY. A NEW LOW WILL MOVE
SE OUT OF NW CANADA ON THURS EVNG...TO LAKE SUPERIOR FRI
AFTERNOON. THE GFS SHOWS ITS ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
WRN MAINE EARLY SAT MRNG AND BY THE END OF THE PERIOD THE LOW WILL
BE OVER SWRN QUEBEC...WITH THE WARM FRONT EXTENDED THROUGH CENTRAL
MAINE. THE ECMWF IS SIMILAR BUT ABOUT 6 HRS BEHIND.
&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

SHORT TERM: CLR TO PC THROUGH SUN AFTERNOON...INCREASING CLOUDS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON FROM THE SW TO NE. VFR CONDITIONS ALL SITES
THROUGH EARLY SUN EVNG...MVFR BHB AND BGR SUN EVNG AS A LOW MOVES
ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND INTO THE GULF OF MAINE. IFR CONDITIONS
AFTER MIDNIGHT BHB...BGR...VFR OTHER SITES AS THE LOW MOVES
THROUGH THE COASTAL MAINE REGION. CONDITIONS RETURNING TO VFR MON
AFTERNOON ALL SITES.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. A FREEZING SPRAY
ADVISORY FOR MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY IS IN EFFECT TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING.

SHORT TERM: WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA SUN AND EARLY MON. WINDS AND
SEAS WILL BUILD AS A LOW TRACK ACROSS COASTAL REGIONS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVNGS AT THIS TIME WNDS APPEAR TO BE IN THE UPPER
END OF SCA LOWER END GALE FORCE. SEAS BUILDING TO AROUND 7 FT.
&&

.CLIMATE...
THIS FEBRUARY WILL END AS THE ALL-TIME COLDEST MONTH
ON RECORD AT BANGOR...AND THE COLDEST FEBRUARY AT CARIBOU. MORE
INFORMATION ON THE COLD FEBRUARY IS AVAILABLE ON THE NEWS
HEADLINES ON THE TOP OF OUR WEB PAGE AT WEATHER.GOV/CAR
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...NORCROSS/CB
SHORT TERM...NORTON
LONG TERM...NORTON
AVIATION...NORCROSS/NORTON
MARINE...NORCROSS/NORTON
CLIMATE...CB



000
FXUS61 KCAR 280059
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
759 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. LOW
PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY FROM
THE WEST. ANOTHER LOW WILL LIKELY CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WITH CLEAR
SKIES AND COLD TEMPERATURES. GENERALLY EXPECT LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 10 TO 20 BELOW ZERO ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS...WITH 5 TO 10 BELOW ZERO ACROSS INTERIOR DOWNEAST AREAS
AND ZERO TO 5 BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE DOWNEAST COAST.
HOWEVER...LOCALLY COLDER TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADJUST FOR CURRENT
CONDITIONS ALONG WITH EXPECTED OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A SPRAWLING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED IN THE MIDWEST THIS
AFTERNOON COVERS A LOT OF REAL ESTATE FROM THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS TO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL
MOVE SLOWLY EAST AND WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE POCONOS DOWN INTO
THE TIDEWATER OF VIRGINIA BY 00Z SUNDAY. ALOFT...A QUASI-ZONAL
FLOW PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY WITH A COUPLE OF MINOR
SHORTWAVES TO PASS TO OUR SOUTH.

THE AIR MASS WILL SLOWLY MODERATE THROUGH SAT AND THE 925 MB TEMP
WHICH WAS -22C AT 12Z THIS MORNING AT CARIBOU IS EXPECTED TO RISE
TO AROUND -14C BY SAT AFTERNOON. SATURDAY WILL BE ANOTHER SUNNY
DAY AND WITH A MODERATION OF THE AIR MASS AS THE INVERSIONS BREAK
EXPECT TEMPS TO MODERATE SIGNIFICANTLY. BASED ON THE TEMPERATURES
THIS AFTERNOON GETTING WARMER THAN FORECAST DID RAISE THE HIGH
TEMPS A FEW DEGREES SAT AFTERNOON.
&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
THE MAJOR SYSTEMS. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE BUILT ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC COAST THATS AND NEW ENGLAND. A LOW OVER HUDSON BAY WITH
ITS ASSOCIATED ARCTIC FRONTAL SYSTEM...A SECOND LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM CENTERED IN THE FOUR CORNERS REGIONS WITH ITS ASSOCIATED
FRONT EXTENDING EAST INTO SRN IL. SUN MRNG THE HIGH BUILDS EAST
INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC...THE WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
OVR FOUR CORNERS EXTEND EAST INTO PA. THE ARCTIC FRONT EXTENDS
SOUTH INTO THE NRN PLAINS. BY SUN EVNG... THESE TWO LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MERGE OVER THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES REGION...THE GFS/NAM SHOWS
A NEW NEW LOW OVER LAKE ONTARIO. THE ECMWF SHOWS A BROAD AREA OF
LOWER PRESSURE IN THE SAME AREA. THE GEM SHOWS THE LOW OVR NRN KY.
THE NEW LOW WILL RAPIDLY DEEPEN AND MOVE EAST. THE GFS MOVES IT TO
VT/NH...THE ECMWF INTO SW GULF OF MAINE. THE GEM/NAM INTO THE SE
GULF OF MAINE. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...THE LOW WILL BE EAST OF
THE AREA...DRAWING ARCTIC AIR ONCE AGAIN INTO THE AREA AS A
CANADIAN HIGH BEGINS TO BUILD IN.

LOADED A BLEND OF THE GFS/NAM/GEM/ECMWF FOR T/TD/WND/POP. LOADED
NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS IN THE COASTAL WATERS. ADDED 15 PERCENT TO WINDS
FOR GUSTS OVER LAND...35 PERCENT FOR GUSTS OVER COASTAL WATERS.
&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED A LOW EXITING THE AREA OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES COMBINED WITH AN ADVANCING CANADIAN HIGH
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND VERY COLD AREA OVER THE AREA MON NGT. THE
HIGH WILL CREST OVER THE AREA TUES AFTERNOON...AS ANOTHER FRONTAL
SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE CNTRL US. BY EARLY WED MRNG THE FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO WRN MAINE. EARLY WED AFTERNOON THE FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH MAINE INTO NEW BRUNSWICK...THE ASSOCIATED LOW WILL MOVE TO
ERN QUEBEC. BY THURS MRNG THE LOW WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE
MARITIMES...A SECONDARY TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH NRN MAINE. A
RIDGE OF HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO WRN MAINE. A TROUGH WILL
MOVE THROUGH NRN MAINE EARLY MORNING FRI...OTHERWISE THE RIDGE
WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER INTO EARLY SATURDAY. A NEW LOW WILL MOVE
SE OUT OF NW CANADA ON THURS EVNG...TO LAKE SUPERIOR FRI
AFTERNOON. THE GFS SHOWS ITS ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
WRN MAINE EARLY SAT MRNG AND BY THE END OF THE PERIOD THE LOW WILL
BE OVER SWRN QUEBEC...WITH THE WARM FRONT EXTENDED THROUGH CENTRAL
MAINE. THE ECMWF IS SIMILAR BUT ABOUT 6 HRS BEHIND.
&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

SHORT TERM: CLR TO PC THROUGH SUN AFTERNOON...INCREASING CLOUDS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON FROM THE SW TO NE. VFR CONDITIONS ALL SITES
THROUGH EARLY SUN EVNG...MVFR BHB AND BGR SUN EVNG AS A LOW MOVES
ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND INTO THE GULF OF MAINE. IFR CONDITIONS
AFTER MIDNIGHT BHB...BGR...VFR OTHER SITES AS THE LOW MOVES
THROUGH THE COASTAL MAINE REGION. CONDITIONS RETURNING TO VFR MON
AFTERNOON ALL SITES.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. A FREEZING SPRAY
ADVISORY FOR MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY IS IN EFFECT TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING.

SHORT TERM: WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA SUN AND EARLY MON. WINDS AND
SEAS WILL BUILD AS A LOW TRACK ACROSS COASTAL REGIONS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVNGS AT THIS TIME WNDS APPEAR TO BE IN THE UPPER
END OF SCA LOWER END GALE FORCE. SEAS BUILDING TO AROUND 7 FT.
&&

.CLIMATE...
THIS FEBRUARY WILL END AS THE ALL-TIME COLDEST MONTH
ON RECORD AT BANGOR...AND THE COLDEST FEBRUARY AT CARIBOU. MORE
INFORMATION ON THE COLD FEBRUARY IS AVAILABLE ON THE NEWS
HEADLINES ON THE TOP OF OUR WEB PAGE AT WEATHER.GOV/CAR
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...NORCROSS/CB
SHORT TERM...NORTON
LONG TERM...NORTON
AVIATION...NORCROSS/NORTON
MARINE...NORCROSS/NORTON
CLIMATE...CB




000
FXUS61 KCAR 280059
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
759 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. LOW
PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY FROM
THE WEST. ANOTHER LOW WILL LIKELY CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WITH CLEAR
SKIES AND COLD TEMPERATURES. GENERALLY EXPECT LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 10 TO 20 BELOW ZERO ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS...WITH 5 TO 10 BELOW ZERO ACROSS INTERIOR DOWNEAST AREAS
AND ZERO TO 5 BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE DOWNEAST COAST.
HOWEVER...LOCALLY COLDER TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADJUST FOR CURRENT
CONDITIONS ALONG WITH EXPECTED OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A SPRAWLING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED IN THE MIDWEST THIS
AFTERNOON COVERS A LOT OF REAL ESTATE FROM THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS TO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL
MOVE SLOWLY EAST AND WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE POCONOS DOWN INTO
THE TIDEWATER OF VIRGINIA BY 00Z SUNDAY. ALOFT...A QUASI-ZONAL
FLOW PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY WITH A COUPLE OF MINOR
SHORTWAVES TO PASS TO OUR SOUTH.

THE AIR MASS WILL SLOWLY MODERATE THROUGH SAT AND THE 925 MB TEMP
WHICH WAS -22C AT 12Z THIS MORNING AT CARIBOU IS EXPECTED TO RISE
TO AROUND -14C BY SAT AFTERNOON. SATURDAY WILL BE ANOTHER SUNNY
DAY AND WITH A MODERATION OF THE AIR MASS AS THE INVERSIONS BREAK
EXPECT TEMPS TO MODERATE SIGNIFICANTLY. BASED ON THE TEMPERATURES
THIS AFTERNOON GETTING WARMER THAN FORECAST DID RAISE THE HIGH
TEMPS A FEW DEGREES SAT AFTERNOON.
&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
THE MAJOR SYSTEMS. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE BUILT ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC COAST THATS AND NEW ENGLAND. A LOW OVER HUDSON BAY WITH
ITS ASSOCIATED ARCTIC FRONTAL SYSTEM...A SECOND LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM CENTERED IN THE FOUR CORNERS REGIONS WITH ITS ASSOCIATED
FRONT EXTENDING EAST INTO SRN IL. SUN MRNG THE HIGH BUILDS EAST
INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC...THE WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
OVR FOUR CORNERS EXTEND EAST INTO PA. THE ARCTIC FRONT EXTENDS
SOUTH INTO THE NRN PLAINS. BY SUN EVNG... THESE TWO LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MERGE OVER THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES REGION...THE GFS/NAM SHOWS
A NEW NEW LOW OVER LAKE ONTARIO. THE ECMWF SHOWS A BROAD AREA OF
LOWER PRESSURE IN THE SAME AREA. THE GEM SHOWS THE LOW OVR NRN KY.
THE NEW LOW WILL RAPIDLY DEEPEN AND MOVE EAST. THE GFS MOVES IT TO
VT/NH...THE ECMWF INTO SW GULF OF MAINE. THE GEM/NAM INTO THE SE
GULF OF MAINE. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...THE LOW WILL BE EAST OF
THE AREA...DRAWING ARCTIC AIR ONCE AGAIN INTO THE AREA AS A
CANADIAN HIGH BEGINS TO BUILD IN.

LOADED A BLEND OF THE GFS/NAM/GEM/ECMWF FOR T/TD/WND/POP. LOADED
NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS IN THE COASTAL WATERS. ADDED 15 PERCENT TO WINDS
FOR GUSTS OVER LAND...35 PERCENT FOR GUSTS OVER COASTAL WATERS.
&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED A LOW EXITING THE AREA OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES COMBINED WITH AN ADVANCING CANADIAN HIGH
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND VERY COLD AREA OVER THE AREA MON NGT. THE
HIGH WILL CREST OVER THE AREA TUES AFTERNOON...AS ANOTHER FRONTAL
SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE CNTRL US. BY EARLY WED MRNG THE FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO WRN MAINE. EARLY WED AFTERNOON THE FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH MAINE INTO NEW BRUNSWICK...THE ASSOCIATED LOW WILL MOVE TO
ERN QUEBEC. BY THURS MRNG THE LOW WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE
MARITIMES...A SECONDARY TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH NRN MAINE. A
RIDGE OF HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO WRN MAINE. A TROUGH WILL
MOVE THROUGH NRN MAINE EARLY MORNING FRI...OTHERWISE THE RIDGE
WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER INTO EARLY SATURDAY. A NEW LOW WILL MOVE
SE OUT OF NW CANADA ON THURS EVNG...TO LAKE SUPERIOR FRI
AFTERNOON. THE GFS SHOWS ITS ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
WRN MAINE EARLY SAT MRNG AND BY THE END OF THE PERIOD THE LOW WILL
BE OVER SWRN QUEBEC...WITH THE WARM FRONT EXTENDED THROUGH CENTRAL
MAINE. THE ECMWF IS SIMILAR BUT ABOUT 6 HRS BEHIND.
&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

SHORT TERM: CLR TO PC THROUGH SUN AFTERNOON...INCREASING CLOUDS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON FROM THE SW TO NE. VFR CONDITIONS ALL SITES
THROUGH EARLY SUN EVNG...MVFR BHB AND BGR SUN EVNG AS A LOW MOVES
ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND INTO THE GULF OF MAINE. IFR CONDITIONS
AFTER MIDNIGHT BHB...BGR...VFR OTHER SITES AS THE LOW MOVES
THROUGH THE COASTAL MAINE REGION. CONDITIONS RETURNING TO VFR MON
AFTERNOON ALL SITES.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. A FREEZING SPRAY
ADVISORY FOR MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY IS IN EFFECT TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING.

SHORT TERM: WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA SUN AND EARLY MON. WINDS AND
SEAS WILL BUILD AS A LOW TRACK ACROSS COASTAL REGIONS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVNGS AT THIS TIME WNDS APPEAR TO BE IN THE UPPER
END OF SCA LOWER END GALE FORCE. SEAS BUILDING TO AROUND 7 FT.
&&

.CLIMATE...
THIS FEBRUARY WILL END AS THE ALL-TIME COLDEST MONTH
ON RECORD AT BANGOR...AND THE COLDEST FEBRUARY AT CARIBOU. MORE
INFORMATION ON THE COLD FEBRUARY IS AVAILABLE ON THE NEWS
HEADLINES ON THE TOP OF OUR WEB PAGE AT WEATHER.GOV/CAR
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...NORCROSS/CB
SHORT TERM...NORTON
LONG TERM...NORTON
AVIATION...NORCROSS/NORTON
MARINE...NORCROSS/NORTON
CLIMATE...CB



000
FXUS61 KGYX 272351
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
651 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY AND WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY. A
WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST SUNDAY NIGHT
AND WILL QUICKLY SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST MONDAY NIGHT AND WILL CREST OVER THE
REGION ON TUESDAY BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST OUT OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT AND WILL
PASS NORTHWEST OF THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
7PM UPDATE...
HAVE MADE A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES.
COMPARED TO THIS MORNING TEMPERATURES JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE SHOULD
BE A FEW DEGREES COLDER. IN GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS
THERE IS ALWAYS HIGH BUST POTENTIAL IN THE FORECAST AS LOCAL COOL
SPOTS CAN DROP VERY QUICKLY. ONLY ADJUSTMENTS WITH THIS UPDATE
WERE TO BRING TYPICAL COOL SPOT WISCASSET DOWN A FEW DEGREES. ALSO
DROPPED SOUTHWEST NEW HAMPSHIRE BY A FEW DEGREES TO BRING THEM
COLDER THAN THEY WERE THIS MORNING AND MORE IN LINE WITH FORECASTS
FROM NEIGHBORING OFFICES. SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW ZERO
THERE AS WELL AS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON...BRANCHING TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND TO THE EAST.
WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXITING THE COAST AT THIS HOUR AS WELL. THIS
BOUNDARY IS MORE PERCEPTIBLE ALOFT...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR
MOVING IN. AT THE SURFACE IT IS MOSTLY A NW WIND...WHICH COMBINED
WITH SUNNY SKIES IS ALLOWING SOME DOWNSLOPE WARMING WELL INTO THE
20S NEAR THE COAST.

SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SETTLES OVERHEAD TONIGHT HOWEVER...AND SKIES
REMAIN CLEAR. CONDITIONS LOOK FAVORABLE FOR DECOUPLING OF THE
BOUNDARY LAYER. SUCH A SMALL SCALE PROCESS IS ALWAYS QUITE
DIFFICULT TO FORECAST...BUT GENERALLY LEANED TOWARDS THE COLDER
MET GUIDANCE AND LOWERED THE USUAL COLD SPOTS A COUPLE MORE
DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL SATURDAY...WITH SKIES REMAINING
MOSTLY SUNNY. GUIDANCE HAS STRUGGLED THE LAST FEW DAYS WITH
SUNSHINE...KEEPING MAX TEMPERATURES ON THE COLD SIDE. BLENDED
MAV/MET WITH CMC-REGIONAL AND NAM12 2 M TEMPERATURES FOR MAX
TEMPERATURES...THEN RAISED A COUPLE DEGREES TO OVERCOME THAT COOL
BIAS.

TEMPERATURES WARM ALOFT SATURDAY NIGHT...SO NOT EXPECTING MIN
TEMPERATURES QUITE AS COLD AS TONIGHT. INITIALLY SURFACE RIDGE
AXIS REMAINS ALIGNED QUITE FAVORABLY FOR THE AREA...SO A QUICK
DROP IN TEMPERATURES IN LIKELY. AS RIDGE AXIS SLOWLY SINKS
SOUTH...THE COMBINATION OF SLIGHT MIXING AND WARMING ALOFT SHOULD
LEVEL TEMPERATURES OFF.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A BROAD AREA OF WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL ENTER THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS
WILL ALLOW LIGHT SNOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY EVENING.
THIS SYSTEM IS PROGRESSIVE...WHICH WILL ALLOW ACCUMULATIONS TO BE
IN THE 2 TO 3 INCH RANGE.

DRIER AIR WILL BE USHERED INTO THE REGION ON STRONG NORTHWEST
WINDS ON MONDAY...HOWEVER THERE MAY BE A STRAY FLURRY LEFTOVER.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST...CRESTING OVER NEW ENGLAND ON
TUESDAY.

THE STORM TRACK HAS CHANGED...ALLOWING THE NEXT SYSTEM TO
POTENTIALLY PASS TO OUR WEST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
SUFFICIENTLY ENOUGH COLD AIR IN PLACE TUESDAY NIGHT TO ALLOW FOR
MOSTLY SNOW ACROSS MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE. HOWEVER...WARM AIR
EVENTUALLY MAKES IT IN ALOFT TO CHANGE MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION
OVER TO A PERIOD OF RAIN OR RAIN AND SNOW MIX BEFORE IT ENDS.

A FEW LEFTOVER RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY BEHIND A COLD
FRONT THAT WILL EVENTUALLY CHANGE OVER TO SNOW SHOWERS BY
THURSDAY.

ANOTHER BRIEF SHOT OF VERY COLD AIR IS LIKELY TOWARDS THE END OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU SUNDAY MORNING.

LONG TERM...AREAS OF IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT. SNOW TO
MIX WILL LEAD TO IFR CONDITIONS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS THRU
SUNDAY MORNING. BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL LEAD TO
MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY NORTH OF CAPE ELIZABETH...AND ADVISORY IS
IN EFFECT THRU 12Z SATURDAY.

LONG TERM...WINDS SHOULD INCREASE TO SCAS MONDAY NIGHT BEHIND
DEPARTING AND STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
MARITIMES. GUSTY WINDS NEXT THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS WELL OUT
OF THE WEST.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ150>152.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM UPDATE...KIMBLE
SHORT TERM...LEGRO
LONG TERM...CANNON
AVIATION...CANNON/LEGRO
MARINE...CANNON/LEGRO




000
FXUS61 KGYX 272351
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
651 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY AND WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY. A
WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST SUNDAY NIGHT
AND WILL QUICKLY SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST MONDAY NIGHT AND WILL CREST OVER THE
REGION ON TUESDAY BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST OUT OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT AND WILL
PASS NORTHWEST OF THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
7PM UPDATE...
HAVE MADE A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES.
COMPARED TO THIS MORNING TEMPERATURES JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE SHOULD
BE A FEW DEGREES COLDER. IN GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS
THERE IS ALWAYS HIGH BUST POTENTIAL IN THE FORECAST AS LOCAL COOL
SPOTS CAN DROP VERY QUICKLY. ONLY ADJUSTMENTS WITH THIS UPDATE
WERE TO BRING TYPICAL COOL SPOT WISCASSET DOWN A FEW DEGREES. ALSO
DROPPED SOUTHWEST NEW HAMPSHIRE BY A FEW DEGREES TO BRING THEM
COLDER THAN THEY WERE THIS MORNING AND MORE IN LINE WITH FORECASTS
FROM NEIGHBORING OFFICES. SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW ZERO
THERE AS WELL AS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON...BRANCHING TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND TO THE EAST.
WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXITING THE COAST AT THIS HOUR AS WELL. THIS
BOUNDARY IS MORE PERCEPTIBLE ALOFT...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR
MOVING IN. AT THE SURFACE IT IS MOSTLY A NW WIND...WHICH COMBINED
WITH SUNNY SKIES IS ALLOWING SOME DOWNSLOPE WARMING WELL INTO THE
20S NEAR THE COAST.

SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SETTLES OVERHEAD TONIGHT HOWEVER...AND SKIES
REMAIN CLEAR. CONDITIONS LOOK FAVORABLE FOR DECOUPLING OF THE
BOUNDARY LAYER. SUCH A SMALL SCALE PROCESS IS ALWAYS QUITE
DIFFICULT TO FORECAST...BUT GENERALLY LEANED TOWARDS THE COLDER
MET GUIDANCE AND LOWERED THE USUAL COLD SPOTS A COUPLE MORE
DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL SATURDAY...WITH SKIES REMAINING
MOSTLY SUNNY. GUIDANCE HAS STRUGGLED THE LAST FEW DAYS WITH
SUNSHINE...KEEPING MAX TEMPERATURES ON THE COLD SIDE. BLENDED
MAV/MET WITH CMC-REGIONAL AND NAM12 2 M TEMPERATURES FOR MAX
TEMPERATURES...THEN RAISED A COUPLE DEGREES TO OVERCOME THAT COOL
BIAS.

TEMPERATURES WARM ALOFT SATURDAY NIGHT...SO NOT EXPECTING MIN
TEMPERATURES QUITE AS COLD AS TONIGHT. INITIALLY SURFACE RIDGE
AXIS REMAINS ALIGNED QUITE FAVORABLY FOR THE AREA...SO A QUICK
DROP IN TEMPERATURES IN LIKELY. AS RIDGE AXIS SLOWLY SINKS
SOUTH...THE COMBINATION OF SLIGHT MIXING AND WARMING ALOFT SHOULD
LEVEL TEMPERATURES OFF.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A BROAD AREA OF WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL ENTER THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS
WILL ALLOW LIGHT SNOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY EVENING.
THIS SYSTEM IS PROGRESSIVE...WHICH WILL ALLOW ACCUMULATIONS TO BE
IN THE 2 TO 3 INCH RANGE.

DRIER AIR WILL BE USHERED INTO THE REGION ON STRONG NORTHWEST
WINDS ON MONDAY...HOWEVER THERE MAY BE A STRAY FLURRY LEFTOVER.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST...CRESTING OVER NEW ENGLAND ON
TUESDAY.

THE STORM TRACK HAS CHANGED...ALLOWING THE NEXT SYSTEM TO
POTENTIALLY PASS TO OUR WEST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
SUFFICIENTLY ENOUGH COLD AIR IN PLACE TUESDAY NIGHT TO ALLOW FOR
MOSTLY SNOW ACROSS MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE. HOWEVER...WARM AIR
EVENTUALLY MAKES IT IN ALOFT TO CHANGE MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION
OVER TO A PERIOD OF RAIN OR RAIN AND SNOW MIX BEFORE IT ENDS.

A FEW LEFTOVER RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY BEHIND A COLD
FRONT THAT WILL EVENTUALLY CHANGE OVER TO SNOW SHOWERS BY
THURSDAY.

ANOTHER BRIEF SHOT OF VERY COLD AIR IS LIKELY TOWARDS THE END OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU SUNDAY MORNING.

LONG TERM...AREAS OF IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT. SNOW TO
MIX WILL LEAD TO IFR CONDITIONS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS THRU
SUNDAY MORNING. BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL LEAD TO
MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY NORTH OF CAPE ELIZABETH...AND ADVISORY IS
IN EFFECT THRU 12Z SATURDAY.

LONG TERM...WINDS SHOULD INCREASE TO SCAS MONDAY NIGHT BEHIND
DEPARTING AND STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
MARITIMES. GUSTY WINDS NEXT THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS WELL OUT
OF THE WEST.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ150>152.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM UPDATE...KIMBLE
SHORT TERM...LEGRO
LONG TERM...CANNON
AVIATION...CANNON/LEGRO
MARINE...CANNON/LEGRO



000
FXUS61 KGYX 272351
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
651 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY AND WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY. A
WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST SUNDAY NIGHT
AND WILL QUICKLY SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST MONDAY NIGHT AND WILL CREST OVER THE
REGION ON TUESDAY BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST OUT OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT AND WILL
PASS NORTHWEST OF THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
7PM UPDATE...
HAVE MADE A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES.
COMPARED TO THIS MORNING TEMPERATURES JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE SHOULD
BE A FEW DEGREES COLDER. IN GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS
THERE IS ALWAYS HIGH BUST POTENTIAL IN THE FORECAST AS LOCAL COOL
SPOTS CAN DROP VERY QUICKLY. ONLY ADJUSTMENTS WITH THIS UPDATE
WERE TO BRING TYPICAL COOL SPOT WISCASSET DOWN A FEW DEGREES. ALSO
DROPPED SOUTHWEST NEW HAMPSHIRE BY A FEW DEGREES TO BRING THEM
COLDER THAN THEY WERE THIS MORNING AND MORE IN LINE WITH FORECASTS
FROM NEIGHBORING OFFICES. SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW ZERO
THERE AS WELL AS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON...BRANCHING TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND TO THE EAST.
WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXITING THE COAST AT THIS HOUR AS WELL. THIS
BOUNDARY IS MORE PERCEPTIBLE ALOFT...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR
MOVING IN. AT THE SURFACE IT IS MOSTLY A NW WIND...WHICH COMBINED
WITH SUNNY SKIES IS ALLOWING SOME DOWNSLOPE WARMING WELL INTO THE
20S NEAR THE COAST.

SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SETTLES OVERHEAD TONIGHT HOWEVER...AND SKIES
REMAIN CLEAR. CONDITIONS LOOK FAVORABLE FOR DECOUPLING OF THE
BOUNDARY LAYER. SUCH A SMALL SCALE PROCESS IS ALWAYS QUITE
DIFFICULT TO FORECAST...BUT GENERALLY LEANED TOWARDS THE COLDER
MET GUIDANCE AND LOWERED THE USUAL COLD SPOTS A COUPLE MORE
DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL SATURDAY...WITH SKIES REMAINING
MOSTLY SUNNY. GUIDANCE HAS STRUGGLED THE LAST FEW DAYS WITH
SUNSHINE...KEEPING MAX TEMPERATURES ON THE COLD SIDE. BLENDED
MAV/MET WITH CMC-REGIONAL AND NAM12 2 M TEMPERATURES FOR MAX
TEMPERATURES...THEN RAISED A COUPLE DEGREES TO OVERCOME THAT COOL
BIAS.

TEMPERATURES WARM ALOFT SATURDAY NIGHT...SO NOT EXPECTING MIN
TEMPERATURES QUITE AS COLD AS TONIGHT. INITIALLY SURFACE RIDGE
AXIS REMAINS ALIGNED QUITE FAVORABLY FOR THE AREA...SO A QUICK
DROP IN TEMPERATURES IN LIKELY. AS RIDGE AXIS SLOWLY SINKS
SOUTH...THE COMBINATION OF SLIGHT MIXING AND WARMING ALOFT SHOULD
LEVEL TEMPERATURES OFF.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A BROAD AREA OF WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL ENTER THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS
WILL ALLOW LIGHT SNOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY EVENING.
THIS SYSTEM IS PROGRESSIVE...WHICH WILL ALLOW ACCUMULATIONS TO BE
IN THE 2 TO 3 INCH RANGE.

DRIER AIR WILL BE USHERED INTO THE REGION ON STRONG NORTHWEST
WINDS ON MONDAY...HOWEVER THERE MAY BE A STRAY FLURRY LEFTOVER.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST...CRESTING OVER NEW ENGLAND ON
TUESDAY.

THE STORM TRACK HAS CHANGED...ALLOWING THE NEXT SYSTEM TO
POTENTIALLY PASS TO OUR WEST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
SUFFICIENTLY ENOUGH COLD AIR IN PLACE TUESDAY NIGHT TO ALLOW FOR
MOSTLY SNOW ACROSS MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE. HOWEVER...WARM AIR
EVENTUALLY MAKES IT IN ALOFT TO CHANGE MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION
OVER TO A PERIOD OF RAIN OR RAIN AND SNOW MIX BEFORE IT ENDS.

A FEW LEFTOVER RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY BEHIND A COLD
FRONT THAT WILL EVENTUALLY CHANGE OVER TO SNOW SHOWERS BY
THURSDAY.

ANOTHER BRIEF SHOT OF VERY COLD AIR IS LIKELY TOWARDS THE END OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU SUNDAY MORNING.

LONG TERM...AREAS OF IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT. SNOW TO
MIX WILL LEAD TO IFR CONDITIONS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS THRU
SUNDAY MORNING. BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL LEAD TO
MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY NORTH OF CAPE ELIZABETH...AND ADVISORY IS
IN EFFECT THRU 12Z SATURDAY.

LONG TERM...WINDS SHOULD INCREASE TO SCAS MONDAY NIGHT BEHIND
DEPARTING AND STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
MARITIMES. GUSTY WINDS NEXT THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS WELL OUT
OF THE WEST.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ150>152.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM UPDATE...KIMBLE
SHORT TERM...LEGRO
LONG TERM...CANNON
AVIATION...CANNON/LEGRO
MARINE...CANNON/LEGRO



000
FXUS61 KGYX 271956
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
256 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY AND WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY. A
WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST SUNDAY NIGHT
AND WILL QUICKLY SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST MONDAY NIGHT AND WILL CREST OVER THE
REGION ON TUESDAY BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST OUT OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT AND WILL
PASS NORTHWEST OF THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SPRAWLING HIGH PRES IS CENTERED OVER THE MID MS VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON...BRANCHING TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND TO THE E. WEAK COLD
FRONT IS EXITING THE COAST AT THIS HOUR AS WELL. THIS BOUNDARY IS
MORE PERCEPTIBLE ALOFT...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MOVING IN. AT
THE SURFACE IT IS MOSTLY A NWLY WIND...WHICH COMBINED WITH SUNNY
SKIES IS ALLOWING SOME DOWNSLOPE WARMING WELL INTO THE 20S NEAR
THE COAST.

SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SETTLES OVERHEAD TONIGHT HOWEVER...AND SKIES
REMAIN CLEAR. CONDITIONS LOOK FAVORABLE FOR DECOUPLING OF THE
BOUNDARY LAYER. SUCH A SMALL SCALE PROCESS IS ALWAYS QUITE
DIFFICULT TO FORECAST...BUT GENERALLY LEANED TOWARDS THE COLDER
MET GUIDANCE AND LOWERED THE USUAL COLD SPOTS A COUPLE MORE
DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRES REMAINS IN CONTROL SAT...WITH SKIES REMAINING MOSTLY
SUNNY. GUIDANCE HAS STRUGGLED THE LAST FEW DAYS WITH
SUNSHINE...KEEPING MAX TEMPS ON THE COLD SIDE. BLENDED MAV/MET
WITH CMC-REGIONAL AND NAM12 2 M TEMPS FOR MAX TEMPS...THEN RAISED
A COUPLE DEGREES TO OVERCOME THAT COOL BIAS.

TEMPS WARM ALOFT SAT NIGHT...SO NOT EXPECTING MIN TEMPS QUITE AS
COLD AS TONIGHT. INITIALLY SURFACE RIDGE AXIS REMAINS ALIGNED
QUITE FAVORABLY FOR THE AREA...SO A QUICK DROP IN TEMPS IN LIKELY.
AS RIDGE AXIS SLOWLY SINKS SWD...THE COMBINATION OF SLIGHT MIXING
AND WARMING ALOFT SHOULD LEVEL TEMPS OFF.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... ]
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVERHEAD SATURDAY NIGHT...LEADING TO
RADIATIONAL COOLING UNDER CLEARS SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP QUICKLY ONCE AGAIN WITH READINGS NEAR ZERO
ALONG THE COAST AND BELOW ZERO ELSEWHERE.

A BROAD AREA OF WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL ENTER THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS
WILL ALLOW LIGHT SNOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY EVENING.
THIS SYSTEM IS PROGRESSIVE...WHICH WILL ALLOW ACCUMULATIONS TO BE
IN THE 2 TO 3 INCH RANGE.

DRIER AIR WILL BE USHERED INTO THE REGION ON STRONG NORTHWEST
WINDS ON MONDAY...HOWEVER THERE MAY BE A STRAY FLURRY LEFTOVER.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST...CRESTING OVER NEW ENGLAND ON
TUESDAY.

THE STORM TRACK HAS CHANGED...ALLOWING THE NEXT SYSTEM TO
POTENTIALLY PASS TO OUR WEST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
SUFFICIENTLY ENOUGH COLD AIR IN PLACE TUESDAY NIGHT TO ALLOW FOR
MOSTLY SNOW ACROSS MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE. HOWEVER...WARM AIR
EVENTUALLY MAKES IT IN ALOFT TO CHANGE MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION
OVER TO A PERIOD OF RAIN OR RAIN AND SNOW MIX BEFORE IT ENDS.

A FEW LEFTOVER RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY BEHIND A COLD
FRONT THAT WILL EVENTUALLY CHANGE OVER TO SNOW SHOWERS BY
THURSDAY.

ANOTHER BRIEF SHOT OF VERY COLD AIR IS LIKELY TOWARDS THE END OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU SUN MORNING.

LONG TERM...AREAS OF IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT. SNOW TO
MIX WILL LEAD TO IFR CONDITIONS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS THRU
SUN MORNING. BITTERLY COLD TEMPS TONIGHT WILL LEAD TO MODERATE
FREEZING SPRAY NORTH OF CAPE ELIZABETH...AND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT
THRU 12Z SAT.

LONG TERM...WINDS SHOULD INCREASE TO SCAS MONDAY NIGHT BEHIND
DEPARTING AND STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
MARITIMES. GUSTY WINDS NEXT THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS WELL OUT
OF THE WEST.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ150>152.

&&

$$

LEGRO/JC




000
FXUS61 KGYX 271956
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
256 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY AND WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY. A
WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST SUNDAY NIGHT
AND WILL QUICKLY SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST MONDAY NIGHT AND WILL CREST OVER THE
REGION ON TUESDAY BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST OUT OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT AND WILL
PASS NORTHWEST OF THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SPRAWLING HIGH PRES IS CENTERED OVER THE MID MS VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON...BRANCHING TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND TO THE E. WEAK COLD
FRONT IS EXITING THE COAST AT THIS HOUR AS WELL. THIS BOUNDARY IS
MORE PERCEPTIBLE ALOFT...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MOVING IN. AT
THE SURFACE IT IS MOSTLY A NWLY WIND...WHICH COMBINED WITH SUNNY
SKIES IS ALLOWING SOME DOWNSLOPE WARMING WELL INTO THE 20S NEAR
THE COAST.

SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SETTLES OVERHEAD TONIGHT HOWEVER...AND SKIES
REMAIN CLEAR. CONDITIONS LOOK FAVORABLE FOR DECOUPLING OF THE
BOUNDARY LAYER. SUCH A SMALL SCALE PROCESS IS ALWAYS QUITE
DIFFICULT TO FORECAST...BUT GENERALLY LEANED TOWARDS THE COLDER
MET GUIDANCE AND LOWERED THE USUAL COLD SPOTS A COUPLE MORE
DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRES REMAINS IN CONTROL SAT...WITH SKIES REMAINING MOSTLY
SUNNY. GUIDANCE HAS STRUGGLED THE LAST FEW DAYS WITH
SUNSHINE...KEEPING MAX TEMPS ON THE COLD SIDE. BLENDED MAV/MET
WITH CMC-REGIONAL AND NAM12 2 M TEMPS FOR MAX TEMPS...THEN RAISED
A COUPLE DEGREES TO OVERCOME THAT COOL BIAS.

TEMPS WARM ALOFT SAT NIGHT...SO NOT EXPECTING MIN TEMPS QUITE AS
COLD AS TONIGHT. INITIALLY SURFACE RIDGE AXIS REMAINS ALIGNED
QUITE FAVORABLY FOR THE AREA...SO A QUICK DROP IN TEMPS IN LIKELY.
AS RIDGE AXIS SLOWLY SINKS SWD...THE COMBINATION OF SLIGHT MIXING
AND WARMING ALOFT SHOULD LEVEL TEMPS OFF.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... ]
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVERHEAD SATURDAY NIGHT...LEADING TO
RADIATIONAL COOLING UNDER CLEARS SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP QUICKLY ONCE AGAIN WITH READINGS NEAR ZERO
ALONG THE COAST AND BELOW ZERO ELSEWHERE.

A BROAD AREA OF WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL ENTER THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS
WILL ALLOW LIGHT SNOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY EVENING.
THIS SYSTEM IS PROGRESSIVE...WHICH WILL ALLOW ACCUMULATIONS TO BE
IN THE 2 TO 3 INCH RANGE.

DRIER AIR WILL BE USHERED INTO THE REGION ON STRONG NORTHWEST
WINDS ON MONDAY...HOWEVER THERE MAY BE A STRAY FLURRY LEFTOVER.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST...CRESTING OVER NEW ENGLAND ON
TUESDAY.

THE STORM TRACK HAS CHANGED...ALLOWING THE NEXT SYSTEM TO
POTENTIALLY PASS TO OUR WEST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
SUFFICIENTLY ENOUGH COLD AIR IN PLACE TUESDAY NIGHT TO ALLOW FOR
MOSTLY SNOW ACROSS MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE. HOWEVER...WARM AIR
EVENTUALLY MAKES IT IN ALOFT TO CHANGE MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION
OVER TO A PERIOD OF RAIN OR RAIN AND SNOW MIX BEFORE IT ENDS.

A FEW LEFTOVER RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY BEHIND A COLD
FRONT THAT WILL EVENTUALLY CHANGE OVER TO SNOW SHOWERS BY
THURSDAY.

ANOTHER BRIEF SHOT OF VERY COLD AIR IS LIKELY TOWARDS THE END OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU SUN MORNING.

LONG TERM...AREAS OF IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT. SNOW TO
MIX WILL LEAD TO IFR CONDITIONS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS THRU
SUN MORNING. BITTERLY COLD TEMPS TONIGHT WILL LEAD TO MODERATE
FREEZING SPRAY NORTH OF CAPE ELIZABETH...AND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT
THRU 12Z SAT.

LONG TERM...WINDS SHOULD INCREASE TO SCAS MONDAY NIGHT BEHIND
DEPARTING AND STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
MARITIMES. GUSTY WINDS NEXT THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS WELL OUT
OF THE WEST.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ150>152.

&&

$$

LEGRO/JC



000
FXUS61 KGYX 271956
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
256 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY AND WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY. A
WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST SUNDAY NIGHT
AND WILL QUICKLY SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST MONDAY NIGHT AND WILL CREST OVER THE
REGION ON TUESDAY BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST OUT OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT AND WILL
PASS NORTHWEST OF THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SPRAWLING HIGH PRES IS CENTERED OVER THE MID MS VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON...BRANCHING TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND TO THE E. WEAK COLD
FRONT IS EXITING THE COAST AT THIS HOUR AS WELL. THIS BOUNDARY IS
MORE PERCEPTIBLE ALOFT...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MOVING IN. AT
THE SURFACE IT IS MOSTLY A NWLY WIND...WHICH COMBINED WITH SUNNY
SKIES IS ALLOWING SOME DOWNSLOPE WARMING WELL INTO THE 20S NEAR
THE COAST.

SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SETTLES OVERHEAD TONIGHT HOWEVER...AND SKIES
REMAIN CLEAR. CONDITIONS LOOK FAVORABLE FOR DECOUPLING OF THE
BOUNDARY LAYER. SUCH A SMALL SCALE PROCESS IS ALWAYS QUITE
DIFFICULT TO FORECAST...BUT GENERALLY LEANED TOWARDS THE COLDER
MET GUIDANCE AND LOWERED THE USUAL COLD SPOTS A COUPLE MORE
DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRES REMAINS IN CONTROL SAT...WITH SKIES REMAINING MOSTLY
SUNNY. GUIDANCE HAS STRUGGLED THE LAST FEW DAYS WITH
SUNSHINE...KEEPING MAX TEMPS ON THE COLD SIDE. BLENDED MAV/MET
WITH CMC-REGIONAL AND NAM12 2 M TEMPS FOR MAX TEMPS...THEN RAISED
A COUPLE DEGREES TO OVERCOME THAT COOL BIAS.

TEMPS WARM ALOFT SAT NIGHT...SO NOT EXPECTING MIN TEMPS QUITE AS
COLD AS TONIGHT. INITIALLY SURFACE RIDGE AXIS REMAINS ALIGNED
QUITE FAVORABLY FOR THE AREA...SO A QUICK DROP IN TEMPS IN LIKELY.
AS RIDGE AXIS SLOWLY SINKS SWD...THE COMBINATION OF SLIGHT MIXING
AND WARMING ALOFT SHOULD LEVEL TEMPS OFF.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... ]
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVERHEAD SATURDAY NIGHT...LEADING TO
RADIATIONAL COOLING UNDER CLEARS SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP QUICKLY ONCE AGAIN WITH READINGS NEAR ZERO
ALONG THE COAST AND BELOW ZERO ELSEWHERE.

A BROAD AREA OF WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL ENTER THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS
WILL ALLOW LIGHT SNOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY EVENING.
THIS SYSTEM IS PROGRESSIVE...WHICH WILL ALLOW ACCUMULATIONS TO BE
IN THE 2 TO 3 INCH RANGE.

DRIER AIR WILL BE USHERED INTO THE REGION ON STRONG NORTHWEST
WINDS ON MONDAY...HOWEVER THERE MAY BE A STRAY FLURRY LEFTOVER.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST...CRESTING OVER NEW ENGLAND ON
TUESDAY.

THE STORM TRACK HAS CHANGED...ALLOWING THE NEXT SYSTEM TO
POTENTIALLY PASS TO OUR WEST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
SUFFICIENTLY ENOUGH COLD AIR IN PLACE TUESDAY NIGHT TO ALLOW FOR
MOSTLY SNOW ACROSS MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE. HOWEVER...WARM AIR
EVENTUALLY MAKES IT IN ALOFT TO CHANGE MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION
OVER TO A PERIOD OF RAIN OR RAIN AND SNOW MIX BEFORE IT ENDS.

A FEW LEFTOVER RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY BEHIND A COLD
FRONT THAT WILL EVENTUALLY CHANGE OVER TO SNOW SHOWERS BY
THURSDAY.

ANOTHER BRIEF SHOT OF VERY COLD AIR IS LIKELY TOWARDS THE END OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU SUN MORNING.

LONG TERM...AREAS OF IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT. SNOW TO
MIX WILL LEAD TO IFR CONDITIONS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS THRU
SUN MORNING. BITTERLY COLD TEMPS TONIGHT WILL LEAD TO MODERATE
FREEZING SPRAY NORTH OF CAPE ELIZABETH...AND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT
THRU 12Z SAT.

LONG TERM...WINDS SHOULD INCREASE TO SCAS MONDAY NIGHT BEHIND
DEPARTING AND STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
MARITIMES. GUSTY WINDS NEXT THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS WELL OUT
OF THE WEST.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ150>152.

&&

$$

LEGRO/JC




000
FXUS61 KGYX 271956
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
256 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY AND WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY. A
WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST SUNDAY NIGHT
AND WILL QUICKLY SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST MONDAY NIGHT AND WILL CREST OVER THE
REGION ON TUESDAY BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST OUT OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT AND WILL
PASS NORTHWEST OF THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SPRAWLING HIGH PRES IS CENTERED OVER THE MID MS VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON...BRANCHING TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND TO THE E. WEAK COLD
FRONT IS EXITING THE COAST AT THIS HOUR AS WELL. THIS BOUNDARY IS
MORE PERCEPTIBLE ALOFT...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MOVING IN. AT
THE SURFACE IT IS MOSTLY A NWLY WIND...WHICH COMBINED WITH SUNNY
SKIES IS ALLOWING SOME DOWNSLOPE WARMING WELL INTO THE 20S NEAR
THE COAST.

SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SETTLES OVERHEAD TONIGHT HOWEVER...AND SKIES
REMAIN CLEAR. CONDITIONS LOOK FAVORABLE FOR DECOUPLING OF THE
BOUNDARY LAYER. SUCH A SMALL SCALE PROCESS IS ALWAYS QUITE
DIFFICULT TO FORECAST...BUT GENERALLY LEANED TOWARDS THE COLDER
MET GUIDANCE AND LOWERED THE USUAL COLD SPOTS A COUPLE MORE
DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRES REMAINS IN CONTROL SAT...WITH SKIES REMAINING MOSTLY
SUNNY. GUIDANCE HAS STRUGGLED THE LAST FEW DAYS WITH
SUNSHINE...KEEPING MAX TEMPS ON THE COLD SIDE. BLENDED MAV/MET
WITH CMC-REGIONAL AND NAM12 2 M TEMPS FOR MAX TEMPS...THEN RAISED
A COUPLE DEGREES TO OVERCOME THAT COOL BIAS.

TEMPS WARM ALOFT SAT NIGHT...SO NOT EXPECTING MIN TEMPS QUITE AS
COLD AS TONIGHT. INITIALLY SURFACE RIDGE AXIS REMAINS ALIGNED
QUITE FAVORABLY FOR THE AREA...SO A QUICK DROP IN TEMPS IN LIKELY.
AS RIDGE AXIS SLOWLY SINKS SWD...THE COMBINATION OF SLIGHT MIXING
AND WARMING ALOFT SHOULD LEVEL TEMPS OFF.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... ]
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVERHEAD SATURDAY NIGHT...LEADING TO
RADIATIONAL COOLING UNDER CLEARS SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP QUICKLY ONCE AGAIN WITH READINGS NEAR ZERO
ALONG THE COAST AND BELOW ZERO ELSEWHERE.

A BROAD AREA OF WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL ENTER THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS
WILL ALLOW LIGHT SNOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY EVENING.
THIS SYSTEM IS PROGRESSIVE...WHICH WILL ALLOW ACCUMULATIONS TO BE
IN THE 2 TO 3 INCH RANGE.

DRIER AIR WILL BE USHERED INTO THE REGION ON STRONG NORTHWEST
WINDS ON MONDAY...HOWEVER THERE MAY BE A STRAY FLURRY LEFTOVER.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST...CRESTING OVER NEW ENGLAND ON
TUESDAY.

THE STORM TRACK HAS CHANGED...ALLOWING THE NEXT SYSTEM TO
POTENTIALLY PASS TO OUR WEST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
SUFFICIENTLY ENOUGH COLD AIR IN PLACE TUESDAY NIGHT TO ALLOW FOR
MOSTLY SNOW ACROSS MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE. HOWEVER...WARM AIR
EVENTUALLY MAKES IT IN ALOFT TO CHANGE MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION
OVER TO A PERIOD OF RAIN OR RAIN AND SNOW MIX BEFORE IT ENDS.

A FEW LEFTOVER RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY BEHIND A COLD
FRONT THAT WILL EVENTUALLY CHANGE OVER TO SNOW SHOWERS BY
THURSDAY.

ANOTHER BRIEF SHOT OF VERY COLD AIR IS LIKELY TOWARDS THE END OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU SUN MORNING.

LONG TERM...AREAS OF IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT. SNOW TO
MIX WILL LEAD TO IFR CONDITIONS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS THRU
SUN MORNING. BITTERLY COLD TEMPS TONIGHT WILL LEAD TO MODERATE
FREEZING SPRAY NORTH OF CAPE ELIZABETH...AND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT
THRU 12Z SAT.

LONG TERM...WINDS SHOULD INCREASE TO SCAS MONDAY NIGHT BEHIND
DEPARTING AND STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
MARITIMES. GUSTY WINDS NEXT THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS WELL OUT
OF THE WEST.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ150>152.

&&

$$

LEGRO/JC




000
FXUS61 KGYX 271956
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
256 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY AND WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY. A
WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST SUNDAY NIGHT
AND WILL QUICKLY SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST MONDAY NIGHT AND WILL CREST OVER THE
REGION ON TUESDAY BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST OUT OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT AND WILL
PASS NORTHWEST OF THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SPRAWLING HIGH PRES IS CENTERED OVER THE MID MS VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON...BRANCHING TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND TO THE E. WEAK COLD
FRONT IS EXITING THE COAST AT THIS HOUR AS WELL. THIS BOUNDARY IS
MORE PERCEPTIBLE ALOFT...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MOVING IN. AT
THE SURFACE IT IS MOSTLY A NWLY WIND...WHICH COMBINED WITH SUNNY
SKIES IS ALLOWING SOME DOWNSLOPE WARMING WELL INTO THE 20S NEAR
THE COAST.

SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SETTLES OVERHEAD TONIGHT HOWEVER...AND SKIES
REMAIN CLEAR. CONDITIONS LOOK FAVORABLE FOR DECOUPLING OF THE
BOUNDARY LAYER. SUCH A SMALL SCALE PROCESS IS ALWAYS QUITE
DIFFICULT TO FORECAST...BUT GENERALLY LEANED TOWARDS THE COLDER
MET GUIDANCE AND LOWERED THE USUAL COLD SPOTS A COUPLE MORE
DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRES REMAINS IN CONTROL SAT...WITH SKIES REMAINING MOSTLY
SUNNY. GUIDANCE HAS STRUGGLED THE LAST FEW DAYS WITH
SUNSHINE...KEEPING MAX TEMPS ON THE COLD SIDE. BLENDED MAV/MET
WITH CMC-REGIONAL AND NAM12 2 M TEMPS FOR MAX TEMPS...THEN RAISED
A COUPLE DEGREES TO OVERCOME THAT COOL BIAS.

TEMPS WARM ALOFT SAT NIGHT...SO NOT EXPECTING MIN TEMPS QUITE AS
COLD AS TONIGHT. INITIALLY SURFACE RIDGE AXIS REMAINS ALIGNED
QUITE FAVORABLY FOR THE AREA...SO A QUICK DROP IN TEMPS IN LIKELY.
AS RIDGE AXIS SLOWLY SINKS SWD...THE COMBINATION OF SLIGHT MIXING
AND WARMING ALOFT SHOULD LEVEL TEMPS OFF.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... ]
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVERHEAD SATURDAY NIGHT...LEADING TO
RADIATIONAL COOLING UNDER CLEARS SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP QUICKLY ONCE AGAIN WITH READINGS NEAR ZERO
ALONG THE COAST AND BELOW ZERO ELSEWHERE.

A BROAD AREA OF WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL ENTER THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS
WILL ALLOW LIGHT SNOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY EVENING.
THIS SYSTEM IS PROGRESSIVE...WHICH WILL ALLOW ACCUMULATIONS TO BE
IN THE 2 TO 3 INCH RANGE.

DRIER AIR WILL BE USHERED INTO THE REGION ON STRONG NORTHWEST
WINDS ON MONDAY...HOWEVER THERE MAY BE A STRAY FLURRY LEFTOVER.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST...CRESTING OVER NEW ENGLAND ON
TUESDAY.

THE STORM TRACK HAS CHANGED...ALLOWING THE NEXT SYSTEM TO
POTENTIALLY PASS TO OUR WEST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
SUFFICIENTLY ENOUGH COLD AIR IN PLACE TUESDAY NIGHT TO ALLOW FOR
MOSTLY SNOW ACROSS MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE. HOWEVER...WARM AIR
EVENTUALLY MAKES IT IN ALOFT TO CHANGE MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION
OVER TO A PERIOD OF RAIN OR RAIN AND SNOW MIX BEFORE IT ENDS.

A FEW LEFTOVER RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY BEHIND A COLD
FRONT THAT WILL EVENTUALLY CHANGE OVER TO SNOW SHOWERS BY
THURSDAY.

ANOTHER BRIEF SHOT OF VERY COLD AIR IS LIKELY TOWARDS THE END OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU SUN MORNING.

LONG TERM...AREAS OF IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT. SNOW TO
MIX WILL LEAD TO IFR CONDITIONS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS THRU
SUN MORNING. BITTERLY COLD TEMPS TONIGHT WILL LEAD TO MODERATE
FREEZING SPRAY NORTH OF CAPE ELIZABETH...AND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT
THRU 12Z SAT.

LONG TERM...WINDS SHOULD INCREASE TO SCAS MONDAY NIGHT BEHIND
DEPARTING AND STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
MARITIMES. GUSTY WINDS NEXT THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS WELL OUT
OF THE WEST.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ150>152.

&&

$$

LEGRO/JC




000
FXUS61 KGYX 271956
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
256 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY AND WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY. A
WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST SUNDAY NIGHT
AND WILL QUICKLY SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST MONDAY NIGHT AND WILL CREST OVER THE
REGION ON TUESDAY BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST OUT OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT AND WILL
PASS NORTHWEST OF THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SPRAWLING HIGH PRES IS CENTERED OVER THE MID MS VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON...BRANCHING TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND TO THE E. WEAK COLD
FRONT IS EXITING THE COAST AT THIS HOUR AS WELL. THIS BOUNDARY IS
MORE PERCEPTIBLE ALOFT...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MOVING IN. AT
THE SURFACE IT IS MOSTLY A NWLY WIND...WHICH COMBINED WITH SUNNY
SKIES IS ALLOWING SOME DOWNSLOPE WARMING WELL INTO THE 20S NEAR
THE COAST.

SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SETTLES OVERHEAD TONIGHT HOWEVER...AND SKIES
REMAIN CLEAR. CONDITIONS LOOK FAVORABLE FOR DECOUPLING OF THE
BOUNDARY LAYER. SUCH A SMALL SCALE PROCESS IS ALWAYS QUITE
DIFFICULT TO FORECAST...BUT GENERALLY LEANED TOWARDS THE COLDER
MET GUIDANCE AND LOWERED THE USUAL COLD SPOTS A COUPLE MORE
DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRES REMAINS IN CONTROL SAT...WITH SKIES REMAINING MOSTLY
SUNNY. GUIDANCE HAS STRUGGLED THE LAST FEW DAYS WITH
SUNSHINE...KEEPING MAX TEMPS ON THE COLD SIDE. BLENDED MAV/MET
WITH CMC-REGIONAL AND NAM12 2 M TEMPS FOR MAX TEMPS...THEN RAISED
A COUPLE DEGREES TO OVERCOME THAT COOL BIAS.

TEMPS WARM ALOFT SAT NIGHT...SO NOT EXPECTING MIN TEMPS QUITE AS
COLD AS TONIGHT. INITIALLY SURFACE RIDGE AXIS REMAINS ALIGNED
QUITE FAVORABLY FOR THE AREA...SO A QUICK DROP IN TEMPS IN LIKELY.
AS RIDGE AXIS SLOWLY SINKS SWD...THE COMBINATION OF SLIGHT MIXING
AND WARMING ALOFT SHOULD LEVEL TEMPS OFF.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... ]
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVERHEAD SATURDAY NIGHT...LEADING TO
RADIATIONAL COOLING UNDER CLEARS SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP QUICKLY ONCE AGAIN WITH READINGS NEAR ZERO
ALONG THE COAST AND BELOW ZERO ELSEWHERE.

A BROAD AREA OF WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL ENTER THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS
WILL ALLOW LIGHT SNOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY EVENING.
THIS SYSTEM IS PROGRESSIVE...WHICH WILL ALLOW ACCUMULATIONS TO BE
IN THE 2 TO 3 INCH RANGE.

DRIER AIR WILL BE USHERED INTO THE REGION ON STRONG NORTHWEST
WINDS ON MONDAY...HOWEVER THERE MAY BE A STRAY FLURRY LEFTOVER.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST...CRESTING OVER NEW ENGLAND ON
TUESDAY.

THE STORM TRACK HAS CHANGED...ALLOWING THE NEXT SYSTEM TO
POTENTIALLY PASS TO OUR WEST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
SUFFICIENTLY ENOUGH COLD AIR IN PLACE TUESDAY NIGHT TO ALLOW FOR
MOSTLY SNOW ACROSS MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE. HOWEVER...WARM AIR
EVENTUALLY MAKES IT IN ALOFT TO CHANGE MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION
OVER TO A PERIOD OF RAIN OR RAIN AND SNOW MIX BEFORE IT ENDS.

A FEW LEFTOVER RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY BEHIND A COLD
FRONT THAT WILL EVENTUALLY CHANGE OVER TO SNOW SHOWERS BY
THURSDAY.

ANOTHER BRIEF SHOT OF VERY COLD AIR IS LIKELY TOWARDS THE END OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU SUN MORNING.

LONG TERM...AREAS OF IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT. SNOW TO
MIX WILL LEAD TO IFR CONDITIONS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS THRU
SUN MORNING. BITTERLY COLD TEMPS TONIGHT WILL LEAD TO MODERATE
FREEZING SPRAY NORTH OF CAPE ELIZABETH...AND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT
THRU 12Z SAT.

LONG TERM...WINDS SHOULD INCREASE TO SCAS MONDAY NIGHT BEHIND
DEPARTING AND STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
MARITIMES. GUSTY WINDS NEXT THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS WELL OUT
OF THE WEST.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ150>152.

&&

$$

LEGRO/JC




000
FXUS61 KCAR 271946
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
246 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE MIDWEST WILL
BUILD SOUTH OF THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS
SOUTH OF THE AREA MONDAY MORNING AND INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES INTO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
TOWARD THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY FROM THE WEST. ANOTHER
LOW WILL LIKELY CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY.


&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A SPRAWLING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED IN THE MIDWEST THIS
AFTERNOON COVERS A LOT OF REAL ESTATE FROM THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS TO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL
MOVE SLOWLY EAST AND WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE POCONOS DOWN INTO
THE TIDEWATER OF VIRGINIA BY 00Z SUNDAY. ALOFT...A QUASI-ZONAL
FLOW PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY WITH A COUPLE OF MINOR
SHORTWAVES TO PASS TO OUR SOUTH.

THE AIR MASS WILL SLOWLY MODERATE THROUGH SAT AND THE 925 MB TEMP
WHICH WAS -22C AT 12Z THIS MORNING AT CARIBOU IS EXPECTED TO RISE
TO AROUND -14Z BY SAT AFTERNOON. FOR TONIGHT...IT WILL BE CLEAR
AND THE ATMOSPHERE WILL QUICKLY DECOUPLE IN THE VALLEYS AS A
RADIATION INVERSION FORMS. EXPECT LOWS TONIGHT TO BE SIMILAR TO
LAST NIGHT...PERHAPS A FEW DEGREES WARMER ON THE HILL TOPS. THAT
SAID...A NUMBER OF THE COLDER NW VALLEYS WILL BE 20 BELOW OR
COLDER AGAIN TONIGHT. MOST AREAS ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE WILL HAVE
LOWS IN THE 10 TO 20 BELOW RANGE...AND FROM 10 BELOW TO ZERO FOR
MUCH OF THE DOWN EAST REGION. NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST
LOWS. SATURDAY WILL BE ANOTHER SUNNY DAY AND WITH A MODERATION OF
THE AIR MASS AS THE INVERSIONS BREAK EXPECT TEMPS TO MODERATE
SIGNIFICANTLY. BASED ON THE TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON GETTING
WARMER THAN FORECAST DID RAISE THE HIGH TEMPS A FEW DEGREES
SAT AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
THE MAJOR SYSTEMS. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE BUILT ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC COAST THATS AND NEW ENGLAND. A LOW OVER HUDSON BAY WITH
ITS ASSOCIATED ARCTIC FRONTAL SYSTEM...A SECOND LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM CENTERED IN THE FOUR CORNERS REGIONS WITH ITS ASSOCIATED
FRONT EXTENDING EAST INTO SRN IL. SUN MRNG THE HIGH BUILDS EAST
INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC...THE WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
OVR FOUR CORNERS EXTEND EAST INTO PA. THE ARCTIC FRONT EXTENDS
SOUTH INTO THE NRN PLAINS. BY SUN EVNG... THESE TWO LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MERGE OVER THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES REGION...THE GFS/NAM SHOWS
A NEW NEW LOW OVER LAKE ONTARIO. THE ECMWF SHOWS A BROAD AREA OF
LOWER PRESSURE IN THE SAME AREA. THE GEM SHOWS THE LOW OVR NRN KY.
THE NEW LOW WILL RAPIDLY DEEPEN AND MOVE EAST. THE GFS MOVES IT TO
VT/NH...THE ECMWF INTO SW GULF OF MAINE. THE GEM/NAM INTO THE SE
GULF OF MAINE. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...THE LOW WILL BE EAST OF
THE AREA...DRAWING ARCTIC AIR ONCE AGAIN INTO THE AREA AS A
CANADIAN HIGH BEGINS TO BUILD IN.

LOADED A BLEND OF THE GFS/NAM/GEM/ECMWF FOR T/TD/WND/POP. LOADED
NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS IN THE COASTAL WATERS. ADDED 15 PERCENT TO WINDS
FOR GUSTS OVER LAND...35 PERCENT FOR GUSTS OVER COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...


AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED A LOW EXITING THE AREA OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES COMBINED WITH AN ADVANCING CANADIAN HIGH
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND VERY COLD AREA OVER THE AREA MON NGT. THE
HIGH WILL CREST OVER THE AREA TUES AFTERNOON...AS ANOTHER FRONTAL
SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE CNTRL US. BY EARLY WED MRNG THE FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO WRN MAINE. EARLY WED AFTERNOON THE FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH MAINE INTO NEW BRUNSWICK...THE ASSOCIATED LOW WILL MOVE TO
ERN QUEBEC. BY THURS MRNG THE LOW WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE
MARITIMES...A SECONDARY TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH NRN MAINE. A
RIDGE OF HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO WRN MAINE. A TROUGH WILL
MOVE THROUGH NRN MAINE EARLY MORNING FRI...OTHERWISE THE RIDGE
WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER INTO EARLY SATURDAY. A NEW LOW WILL MOVE
SE OUT OF NW CANADA ON THURS EVNG...TO LAKE SUPERIOR FRI
AFTERNOON. THE GFS SHOWS ITS ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
WRN MAINE EARLY SAT MRNG AND BY THE END OF THE PERIOD THE LOW WILL
BE OVER SWRN QUEBEC...WITH THE WARM FRONT EXTENDED THROUGH CENTRAL
MAINE. THE ECMWF IS SIMILAR BUT ABOUT 6 HRS BEHIND.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

SHORT TERM: CLR TO PC THROUGH SUN AFTERNOON...INCREASING CLOUDS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON FROM THE SW TO NE. VFR CONDITIONS ALL SITES
THROUGH EARLY SUN EVNG...MVFR BHB AND BGR SUN EVNG AS A LOW MOVES
ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND INTO THE GULF OF MAINE. IFR CONDITIONS
AFTER MIDNIGHT BHB...BGR...VFR OTHER SITES AS THE LOW MOVES
THROUGH THE COASTAL MAINE REGION. CONDITIONS RETURNING TO VFR MON
AFTERNOON ALL SITES.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: THE WIND AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY
HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR TONIGHT THROUGH MID-MORNING SAT.

SHORT TERM: WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA SUN AND EARLY MON. WINDS AND
SEAS WILL BUILD AS A LOW TRACK ACROSS COASTAL REGIONS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVNGS AT THIS TIME WNDS APPEAR TO BE IN THE UPPER
END OF SCA LOWER END GALE FORCE. SEAS BUILDING TO AROUND 7 FT.

&&

.CLIMATE...THIS FEBRUARY WILL END AS THE ALL-TIME COLDEST MONTH
ON RECORD AT BANGOR...AND THE COLDEST FEBRUARY AT CARIBOU. MORE
INFORMATION ON THE COLD FEBRUARY IS AVAILABLE ON THE NEWS
HEADLINES ON THE TOP OF OUR WEB PAGE AT WEATHER.GOV/CAR

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CB
SHORT TERM...NORTON
LONG TERM...NORTON
AVIATION...CB/NORTON
MARINE...CB/NORTON
CLIMATE...CB




000
FXUS61 KCAR 271946
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
246 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE MIDWEST WILL
BUILD SOUTH OF THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS
SOUTH OF THE AREA MONDAY MORNING AND INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES INTO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
TOWARD THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY FROM THE WEST. ANOTHER
LOW WILL LIKELY CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY.


&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A SPRAWLING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED IN THE MIDWEST THIS
AFTERNOON COVERS A LOT OF REAL ESTATE FROM THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS TO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL
MOVE SLOWLY EAST AND WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE POCONOS DOWN INTO
THE TIDEWATER OF VIRGINIA BY 00Z SUNDAY. ALOFT...A QUASI-ZONAL
FLOW PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY WITH A COUPLE OF MINOR
SHORTWAVES TO PASS TO OUR SOUTH.

THE AIR MASS WILL SLOWLY MODERATE THROUGH SAT AND THE 925 MB TEMP
WHICH WAS -22C AT 12Z THIS MORNING AT CARIBOU IS EXPECTED TO RISE
TO AROUND -14Z BY SAT AFTERNOON. FOR TONIGHT...IT WILL BE CLEAR
AND THE ATMOSPHERE WILL QUICKLY DECOUPLE IN THE VALLEYS AS A
RADIATION INVERSION FORMS. EXPECT LOWS TONIGHT TO BE SIMILAR TO
LAST NIGHT...PERHAPS A FEW DEGREES WARMER ON THE HILL TOPS. THAT
SAID...A NUMBER OF THE COLDER NW VALLEYS WILL BE 20 BELOW OR
COLDER AGAIN TONIGHT. MOST AREAS ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE WILL HAVE
LOWS IN THE 10 TO 20 BELOW RANGE...AND FROM 10 BELOW TO ZERO FOR
MUCH OF THE DOWN EAST REGION. NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST
LOWS. SATURDAY WILL BE ANOTHER SUNNY DAY AND WITH A MODERATION OF
THE AIR MASS AS THE INVERSIONS BREAK EXPECT TEMPS TO MODERATE
SIGNIFICANTLY. BASED ON THE TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON GETTING
WARMER THAN FORECAST DID RAISE THE HIGH TEMPS A FEW DEGREES
SAT AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
THE MAJOR SYSTEMS. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE BUILT ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC COAST THATS AND NEW ENGLAND. A LOW OVER HUDSON BAY WITH
ITS ASSOCIATED ARCTIC FRONTAL SYSTEM...A SECOND LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM CENTERED IN THE FOUR CORNERS REGIONS WITH ITS ASSOCIATED
FRONT EXTENDING EAST INTO SRN IL. SUN MRNG THE HIGH BUILDS EAST
INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC...THE WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
OVR FOUR CORNERS EXTEND EAST INTO PA. THE ARCTIC FRONT EXTENDS
SOUTH INTO THE NRN PLAINS. BY SUN EVNG... THESE TWO LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MERGE OVER THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES REGION...THE GFS/NAM SHOWS
A NEW NEW LOW OVER LAKE ONTARIO. THE ECMWF SHOWS A BROAD AREA OF
LOWER PRESSURE IN THE SAME AREA. THE GEM SHOWS THE LOW OVR NRN KY.
THE NEW LOW WILL RAPIDLY DEEPEN AND MOVE EAST. THE GFS MOVES IT TO
VT/NH...THE ECMWF INTO SW GULF OF MAINE. THE GEM/NAM INTO THE SE
GULF OF MAINE. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...THE LOW WILL BE EAST OF
THE AREA...DRAWING ARCTIC AIR ONCE AGAIN INTO THE AREA AS A
CANADIAN HIGH BEGINS TO BUILD IN.

LOADED A BLEND OF THE GFS/NAM/GEM/ECMWF FOR T/TD/WND/POP. LOADED
NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS IN THE COASTAL WATERS. ADDED 15 PERCENT TO WINDS
FOR GUSTS OVER LAND...35 PERCENT FOR GUSTS OVER COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...


AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED A LOW EXITING THE AREA OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES COMBINED WITH AN ADVANCING CANADIAN HIGH
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND VERY COLD AREA OVER THE AREA MON NGT. THE
HIGH WILL CREST OVER THE AREA TUES AFTERNOON...AS ANOTHER FRONTAL
SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE CNTRL US. BY EARLY WED MRNG THE FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO WRN MAINE. EARLY WED AFTERNOON THE FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH MAINE INTO NEW BRUNSWICK...THE ASSOCIATED LOW WILL MOVE TO
ERN QUEBEC. BY THURS MRNG THE LOW WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE
MARITIMES...A SECONDARY TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH NRN MAINE. A
RIDGE OF HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO WRN MAINE. A TROUGH WILL
MOVE THROUGH NRN MAINE EARLY MORNING FRI...OTHERWISE THE RIDGE
WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER INTO EARLY SATURDAY. A NEW LOW WILL MOVE
SE OUT OF NW CANADA ON THURS EVNG...TO LAKE SUPERIOR FRI
AFTERNOON. THE GFS SHOWS ITS ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
WRN MAINE EARLY SAT MRNG AND BY THE END OF THE PERIOD THE LOW WILL
BE OVER SWRN QUEBEC...WITH THE WARM FRONT EXTENDED THROUGH CENTRAL
MAINE. THE ECMWF IS SIMILAR BUT ABOUT 6 HRS BEHIND.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

SHORT TERM: CLR TO PC THROUGH SUN AFTERNOON...INCREASING CLOUDS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON FROM THE SW TO NE. VFR CONDITIONS ALL SITES
THROUGH EARLY SUN EVNG...MVFR BHB AND BGR SUN EVNG AS A LOW MOVES
ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND INTO THE GULF OF MAINE. IFR CONDITIONS
AFTER MIDNIGHT BHB...BGR...VFR OTHER SITES AS THE LOW MOVES
THROUGH THE COASTAL MAINE REGION. CONDITIONS RETURNING TO VFR MON
AFTERNOON ALL SITES.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: THE WIND AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY
HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR TONIGHT THROUGH MID-MORNING SAT.

SHORT TERM: WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA SUN AND EARLY MON. WINDS AND
SEAS WILL BUILD AS A LOW TRACK ACROSS COASTAL REGIONS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVNGS AT THIS TIME WNDS APPEAR TO BE IN THE UPPER
END OF SCA LOWER END GALE FORCE. SEAS BUILDING TO AROUND 7 FT.

&&

.CLIMATE...THIS FEBRUARY WILL END AS THE ALL-TIME COLDEST MONTH
ON RECORD AT BANGOR...AND THE COLDEST FEBRUARY AT CARIBOU. MORE
INFORMATION ON THE COLD FEBRUARY IS AVAILABLE ON THE NEWS
HEADLINES ON THE TOP OF OUR WEB PAGE AT WEATHER.GOV/CAR

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CB
SHORT TERM...NORTON
LONG TERM...NORTON
AVIATION...CB/NORTON
MARINE...CB/NORTON
CLIMATE...CB




000
FXUS61 KCAR 271946
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
246 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE MIDWEST WILL
BUILD SOUTH OF THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS
SOUTH OF THE AREA MONDAY MORNING AND INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES INTO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
TOWARD THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY FROM THE WEST. ANOTHER
LOW WILL LIKELY CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY.


&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A SPRAWLING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED IN THE MIDWEST THIS
AFTERNOON COVERS A LOT OF REAL ESTATE FROM THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS TO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL
MOVE SLOWLY EAST AND WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE POCONOS DOWN INTO
THE TIDEWATER OF VIRGINIA BY 00Z SUNDAY. ALOFT...A QUASI-ZONAL
FLOW PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY WITH A COUPLE OF MINOR
SHORTWAVES TO PASS TO OUR SOUTH.

THE AIR MASS WILL SLOWLY MODERATE THROUGH SAT AND THE 925 MB TEMP
WHICH WAS -22C AT 12Z THIS MORNING AT CARIBOU IS EXPECTED TO RISE
TO AROUND -14Z BY SAT AFTERNOON. FOR TONIGHT...IT WILL BE CLEAR
AND THE ATMOSPHERE WILL QUICKLY DECOUPLE IN THE VALLEYS AS A
RADIATION INVERSION FORMS. EXPECT LOWS TONIGHT TO BE SIMILAR TO
LAST NIGHT...PERHAPS A FEW DEGREES WARMER ON THE HILL TOPS. THAT
SAID...A NUMBER OF THE COLDER NW VALLEYS WILL BE 20 BELOW OR
COLDER AGAIN TONIGHT. MOST AREAS ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE WILL HAVE
LOWS IN THE 10 TO 20 BELOW RANGE...AND FROM 10 BELOW TO ZERO FOR
MUCH OF THE DOWN EAST REGION. NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST
LOWS. SATURDAY WILL BE ANOTHER SUNNY DAY AND WITH A MODERATION OF
THE AIR MASS AS THE INVERSIONS BREAK EXPECT TEMPS TO MODERATE
SIGNIFICANTLY. BASED ON THE TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON GETTING
WARMER THAN FORECAST DID RAISE THE HIGH TEMPS A FEW DEGREES
SAT AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
THE MAJOR SYSTEMS. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE BUILT ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC COAST THATS AND NEW ENGLAND. A LOW OVER HUDSON BAY WITH
ITS ASSOCIATED ARCTIC FRONTAL SYSTEM...A SECOND LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM CENTERED IN THE FOUR CORNERS REGIONS WITH ITS ASSOCIATED
FRONT EXTENDING EAST INTO SRN IL. SUN MRNG THE HIGH BUILDS EAST
INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC...THE WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
OVR FOUR CORNERS EXTEND EAST INTO PA. THE ARCTIC FRONT EXTENDS
SOUTH INTO THE NRN PLAINS. BY SUN EVNG... THESE TWO LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MERGE OVER THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES REGION...THE GFS/NAM SHOWS
A NEW NEW LOW OVER LAKE ONTARIO. THE ECMWF SHOWS A BROAD AREA OF
LOWER PRESSURE IN THE SAME AREA. THE GEM SHOWS THE LOW OVR NRN KY.
THE NEW LOW WILL RAPIDLY DEEPEN AND MOVE EAST. THE GFS MOVES IT TO
VT/NH...THE ECMWF INTO SW GULF OF MAINE. THE GEM/NAM INTO THE SE
GULF OF MAINE. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...THE LOW WILL BE EAST OF
THE AREA...DRAWING ARCTIC AIR ONCE AGAIN INTO THE AREA AS A
CANADIAN HIGH BEGINS TO BUILD IN.

LOADED A BLEND OF THE GFS/NAM/GEM/ECMWF FOR T/TD/WND/POP. LOADED
NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS IN THE COASTAL WATERS. ADDED 15 PERCENT TO WINDS
FOR GUSTS OVER LAND...35 PERCENT FOR GUSTS OVER COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...


AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED A LOW EXITING THE AREA OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES COMBINED WITH AN ADVANCING CANADIAN HIGH
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND VERY COLD AREA OVER THE AREA MON NGT. THE
HIGH WILL CREST OVER THE AREA TUES AFTERNOON...AS ANOTHER FRONTAL
SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE CNTRL US. BY EARLY WED MRNG THE FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO WRN MAINE. EARLY WED AFTERNOON THE FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH MAINE INTO NEW BRUNSWICK...THE ASSOCIATED LOW WILL MOVE TO
ERN QUEBEC. BY THURS MRNG THE LOW WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE
MARITIMES...A SECONDARY TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH NRN MAINE. A
RIDGE OF HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO WRN MAINE. A TROUGH WILL
MOVE THROUGH NRN MAINE EARLY MORNING FRI...OTHERWISE THE RIDGE
WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER INTO EARLY SATURDAY. A NEW LOW WILL MOVE
SE OUT OF NW CANADA ON THURS EVNG...TO LAKE SUPERIOR FRI
AFTERNOON. THE GFS SHOWS ITS ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
WRN MAINE EARLY SAT MRNG AND BY THE END OF THE PERIOD THE LOW WILL
BE OVER SWRN QUEBEC...WITH THE WARM FRONT EXTENDED THROUGH CENTRAL
MAINE. THE ECMWF IS SIMILAR BUT ABOUT 6 HRS BEHIND.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

SHORT TERM: CLR TO PC THROUGH SUN AFTERNOON...INCREASING CLOUDS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON FROM THE SW TO NE. VFR CONDITIONS ALL SITES
THROUGH EARLY SUN EVNG...MVFR BHB AND BGR SUN EVNG AS A LOW MOVES
ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND INTO THE GULF OF MAINE. IFR CONDITIONS
AFTER MIDNIGHT BHB...BGR...VFR OTHER SITES AS THE LOW MOVES
THROUGH THE COASTAL MAINE REGION. CONDITIONS RETURNING TO VFR MON
AFTERNOON ALL SITES.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: THE WIND AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY
HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR TONIGHT THROUGH MID-MORNING SAT.

SHORT TERM: WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA SUN AND EARLY MON. WINDS AND
SEAS WILL BUILD AS A LOW TRACK ACROSS COASTAL REGIONS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVNGS AT THIS TIME WNDS APPEAR TO BE IN THE UPPER
END OF SCA LOWER END GALE FORCE. SEAS BUILDING TO AROUND 7 FT.

&&

.CLIMATE...THIS FEBRUARY WILL END AS THE ALL-TIME COLDEST MONTH
ON RECORD AT BANGOR...AND THE COLDEST FEBRUARY AT CARIBOU. MORE
INFORMATION ON THE COLD FEBRUARY IS AVAILABLE ON THE NEWS
HEADLINES ON THE TOP OF OUR WEB PAGE AT WEATHER.GOV/CAR

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CB
SHORT TERM...NORTON
LONG TERM...NORTON
AVIATION...CB/NORTON
MARINE...CB/NORTON
CLIMATE...CB




000
FXUS61 KCAR 271946
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
246 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE MIDWEST WILL
BUILD SOUTH OF THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS
SOUTH OF THE AREA MONDAY MORNING AND INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES INTO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
TOWARD THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY FROM THE WEST. ANOTHER
LOW WILL LIKELY CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY.


&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A SPRAWLING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED IN THE MIDWEST THIS
AFTERNOON COVERS A LOT OF REAL ESTATE FROM THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS TO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL
MOVE SLOWLY EAST AND WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE POCONOS DOWN INTO
THE TIDEWATER OF VIRGINIA BY 00Z SUNDAY. ALOFT...A QUASI-ZONAL
FLOW PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY WITH A COUPLE OF MINOR
SHORTWAVES TO PASS TO OUR SOUTH.

THE AIR MASS WILL SLOWLY MODERATE THROUGH SAT AND THE 925 MB TEMP
WHICH WAS -22C AT 12Z THIS MORNING AT CARIBOU IS EXPECTED TO RISE
TO AROUND -14Z BY SAT AFTERNOON. FOR TONIGHT...IT WILL BE CLEAR
AND THE ATMOSPHERE WILL QUICKLY DECOUPLE IN THE VALLEYS AS A
RADIATION INVERSION FORMS. EXPECT LOWS TONIGHT TO BE SIMILAR TO
LAST NIGHT...PERHAPS A FEW DEGREES WARMER ON THE HILL TOPS. THAT
SAID...A NUMBER OF THE COLDER NW VALLEYS WILL BE 20 BELOW OR
COLDER AGAIN TONIGHT. MOST AREAS ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE WILL HAVE
LOWS IN THE 10 TO 20 BELOW RANGE...AND FROM 10 BELOW TO ZERO FOR
MUCH OF THE DOWN EAST REGION. NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST
LOWS. SATURDAY WILL BE ANOTHER SUNNY DAY AND WITH A MODERATION OF
THE AIR MASS AS THE INVERSIONS BREAK EXPECT TEMPS TO MODERATE
SIGNIFICANTLY. BASED ON THE TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON GETTING
WARMER THAN FORECAST DID RAISE THE HIGH TEMPS A FEW DEGREES
SAT AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
THE MAJOR SYSTEMS. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE BUILT ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC COAST THATS AND NEW ENGLAND. A LOW OVER HUDSON BAY WITH
ITS ASSOCIATED ARCTIC FRONTAL SYSTEM...A SECOND LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM CENTERED IN THE FOUR CORNERS REGIONS WITH ITS ASSOCIATED
FRONT EXTENDING EAST INTO SRN IL. SUN MRNG THE HIGH BUILDS EAST
INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC...THE WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
OVR FOUR CORNERS EXTEND EAST INTO PA. THE ARCTIC FRONT EXTENDS
SOUTH INTO THE NRN PLAINS. BY SUN EVNG... THESE TWO LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MERGE OVER THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES REGION...THE GFS/NAM SHOWS
A NEW NEW LOW OVER LAKE ONTARIO. THE ECMWF SHOWS A BROAD AREA OF
LOWER PRESSURE IN THE SAME AREA. THE GEM SHOWS THE LOW OVR NRN KY.
THE NEW LOW WILL RAPIDLY DEEPEN AND MOVE EAST. THE GFS MOVES IT TO
VT/NH...THE ECMWF INTO SW GULF OF MAINE. THE GEM/NAM INTO THE SE
GULF OF MAINE. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...THE LOW WILL BE EAST OF
THE AREA...DRAWING ARCTIC AIR ONCE AGAIN INTO THE AREA AS A
CANADIAN HIGH BEGINS TO BUILD IN.

LOADED A BLEND OF THE GFS/NAM/GEM/ECMWF FOR T/TD/WND/POP. LOADED
NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS IN THE COASTAL WATERS. ADDED 15 PERCENT TO WINDS
FOR GUSTS OVER LAND...35 PERCENT FOR GUSTS OVER COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...


AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED A LOW EXITING THE AREA OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES COMBINED WITH AN ADVANCING CANADIAN HIGH
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND VERY COLD AREA OVER THE AREA MON NGT. THE
HIGH WILL CREST OVER THE AREA TUES AFTERNOON...AS ANOTHER FRONTAL
SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE CNTRL US. BY EARLY WED MRNG THE FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO WRN MAINE. EARLY WED AFTERNOON THE FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH MAINE INTO NEW BRUNSWICK...THE ASSOCIATED LOW WILL MOVE TO
ERN QUEBEC. BY THURS MRNG THE LOW WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE
MARITIMES...A SECONDARY TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH NRN MAINE. A
RIDGE OF HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO WRN MAINE. A TROUGH WILL
MOVE THROUGH NRN MAINE EARLY MORNING FRI...OTHERWISE THE RIDGE
WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER INTO EARLY SATURDAY. A NEW LOW WILL MOVE
SE OUT OF NW CANADA ON THURS EVNG...TO LAKE SUPERIOR FRI
AFTERNOON. THE GFS SHOWS ITS ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
WRN MAINE EARLY SAT MRNG AND BY THE END OF THE PERIOD THE LOW WILL
BE OVER SWRN QUEBEC...WITH THE WARM FRONT EXTENDED THROUGH CENTRAL
MAINE. THE ECMWF IS SIMILAR BUT ABOUT 6 HRS BEHIND.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

SHORT TERM: CLR TO PC THROUGH SUN AFTERNOON...INCREASING CLOUDS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON FROM THE SW TO NE. VFR CONDITIONS ALL SITES
THROUGH EARLY SUN EVNG...MVFR BHB AND BGR SUN EVNG AS A LOW MOVES
ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND INTO THE GULF OF MAINE. IFR CONDITIONS
AFTER MIDNIGHT BHB...BGR...VFR OTHER SITES AS THE LOW MOVES
THROUGH THE COASTAL MAINE REGION. CONDITIONS RETURNING TO VFR MON
AFTERNOON ALL SITES.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: THE WIND AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY
HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR TONIGHT THROUGH MID-MORNING SAT.

SHORT TERM: WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA SUN AND EARLY MON. WINDS AND
SEAS WILL BUILD AS A LOW TRACK ACROSS COASTAL REGIONS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVNGS AT THIS TIME WNDS APPEAR TO BE IN THE UPPER
END OF SCA LOWER END GALE FORCE. SEAS BUILDING TO AROUND 7 FT.

&&

.CLIMATE...THIS FEBRUARY WILL END AS THE ALL-TIME COLDEST MONTH
ON RECORD AT BANGOR...AND THE COLDEST FEBRUARY AT CARIBOU. MORE
INFORMATION ON THE COLD FEBRUARY IS AVAILABLE ON THE NEWS
HEADLINES ON THE TOP OF OUR WEB PAGE AT WEATHER.GOV/CAR

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CB
SHORT TERM...NORTON
LONG TERM...NORTON
AVIATION...CB/NORTON
MARINE...CB/NORTON
CLIMATE...CB




000
FXUS61 KCAR 271946
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
246 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE MIDWEST WILL
BUILD SOUTH OF THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS
SOUTH OF THE AREA MONDAY MORNING AND INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES INTO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
TOWARD THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY FROM THE WEST. ANOTHER
LOW WILL LIKELY CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY.


&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A SPRAWLING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED IN THE MIDWEST THIS
AFTERNOON COVERS A LOT OF REAL ESTATE FROM THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS TO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL
MOVE SLOWLY EAST AND WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE POCONOS DOWN INTO
THE TIDEWATER OF VIRGINIA BY 00Z SUNDAY. ALOFT...A QUASI-ZONAL
FLOW PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY WITH A COUPLE OF MINOR
SHORTWAVES TO PASS TO OUR SOUTH.

THE AIR MASS WILL SLOWLY MODERATE THROUGH SAT AND THE 925 MB TEMP
WHICH WAS -22C AT 12Z THIS MORNING AT CARIBOU IS EXPECTED TO RISE
TO AROUND -14Z BY SAT AFTERNOON. FOR TONIGHT...IT WILL BE CLEAR
AND THE ATMOSPHERE WILL QUICKLY DECOUPLE IN THE VALLEYS AS A
RADIATION INVERSION FORMS. EXPECT LOWS TONIGHT TO BE SIMILAR TO
LAST NIGHT...PERHAPS A FEW DEGREES WARMER ON THE HILL TOPS. THAT
SAID...A NUMBER OF THE COLDER NW VALLEYS WILL BE 20 BELOW OR
COLDER AGAIN TONIGHT. MOST AREAS ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE WILL HAVE
LOWS IN THE 10 TO 20 BELOW RANGE...AND FROM 10 BELOW TO ZERO FOR
MUCH OF THE DOWN EAST REGION. NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST
LOWS. SATURDAY WILL BE ANOTHER SUNNY DAY AND WITH A MODERATION OF
THE AIR MASS AS THE INVERSIONS BREAK EXPECT TEMPS TO MODERATE
SIGNIFICANTLY. BASED ON THE TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON GETTING
WARMER THAN FORECAST DID RAISE THE HIGH TEMPS A FEW DEGREES
SAT AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
THE MAJOR SYSTEMS. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE BUILT ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC COAST THATS AND NEW ENGLAND. A LOW OVER HUDSON BAY WITH
ITS ASSOCIATED ARCTIC FRONTAL SYSTEM...A SECOND LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM CENTERED IN THE FOUR CORNERS REGIONS WITH ITS ASSOCIATED
FRONT EXTENDING EAST INTO SRN IL. SUN MRNG THE HIGH BUILDS EAST
INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC...THE WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
OVR FOUR CORNERS EXTEND EAST INTO PA. THE ARCTIC FRONT EXTENDS
SOUTH INTO THE NRN PLAINS. BY SUN EVNG... THESE TWO LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MERGE OVER THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES REGION...THE GFS/NAM SHOWS
A NEW NEW LOW OVER LAKE ONTARIO. THE ECMWF SHOWS A BROAD AREA OF
LOWER PRESSURE IN THE SAME AREA. THE GEM SHOWS THE LOW OVR NRN KY.
THE NEW LOW WILL RAPIDLY DEEPEN AND MOVE EAST. THE GFS MOVES IT TO
VT/NH...THE ECMWF INTO SW GULF OF MAINE. THE GEM/NAM INTO THE SE
GULF OF MAINE. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...THE LOW WILL BE EAST OF
THE AREA...DRAWING ARCTIC AIR ONCE AGAIN INTO THE AREA AS A
CANADIAN HIGH BEGINS TO BUILD IN.

LOADED A BLEND OF THE GFS/NAM/GEM/ECMWF FOR T/TD/WND/POP. LOADED
NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS IN THE COASTAL WATERS. ADDED 15 PERCENT TO WINDS
FOR GUSTS OVER LAND...35 PERCENT FOR GUSTS OVER COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...


AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED A LOW EXITING THE AREA OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES COMBINED WITH AN ADVANCING CANADIAN HIGH
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND VERY COLD AREA OVER THE AREA MON NGT. THE
HIGH WILL CREST OVER THE AREA TUES AFTERNOON...AS ANOTHER FRONTAL
SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE CNTRL US. BY EARLY WED MRNG THE FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO WRN MAINE. EARLY WED AFTERNOON THE FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH MAINE INTO NEW BRUNSWICK...THE ASSOCIATED LOW WILL MOVE TO
ERN QUEBEC. BY THURS MRNG THE LOW WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE
MARITIMES...A SECONDARY TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH NRN MAINE. A
RIDGE OF HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO WRN MAINE. A TROUGH WILL
MOVE THROUGH NRN MAINE EARLY MORNING FRI...OTHERWISE THE RIDGE
WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER INTO EARLY SATURDAY. A NEW LOW WILL MOVE
SE OUT OF NW CANADA ON THURS EVNG...TO LAKE SUPERIOR FRI
AFTERNOON. THE GFS SHOWS ITS ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
WRN MAINE EARLY SAT MRNG AND BY THE END OF THE PERIOD THE LOW WILL
BE OVER SWRN QUEBEC...WITH THE WARM FRONT EXTENDED THROUGH CENTRAL
MAINE. THE ECMWF IS SIMILAR BUT ABOUT 6 HRS BEHIND.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

SHORT TERM: CLR TO PC THROUGH SUN AFTERNOON...INCREASING CLOUDS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON FROM THE SW TO NE. VFR CONDITIONS ALL SITES
THROUGH EARLY SUN EVNG...MVFR BHB AND BGR SUN EVNG AS A LOW MOVES
ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND INTO THE GULF OF MAINE. IFR CONDITIONS
AFTER MIDNIGHT BHB...BGR...VFR OTHER SITES AS THE LOW MOVES
THROUGH THE COASTAL MAINE REGION. CONDITIONS RETURNING TO VFR MON
AFTERNOON ALL SITES.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: THE WIND AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY
HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR TONIGHT THROUGH MID-MORNING SAT.

SHORT TERM: WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA SUN AND EARLY MON. WINDS AND
SEAS WILL BUILD AS A LOW TRACK ACROSS COASTAL REGIONS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVNGS AT THIS TIME WNDS APPEAR TO BE IN THE UPPER
END OF SCA LOWER END GALE FORCE. SEAS BUILDING TO AROUND 7 FT.

&&

.CLIMATE...THIS FEBRUARY WILL END AS THE ALL-TIME COLDEST MONTH
ON RECORD AT BANGOR...AND THE COLDEST FEBRUARY AT CARIBOU. MORE
INFORMATION ON THE COLD FEBRUARY IS AVAILABLE ON THE NEWS
HEADLINES ON THE TOP OF OUR WEB PAGE AT WEATHER.GOV/CAR

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CB
SHORT TERM...NORTON
LONG TERM...NORTON
AVIATION...CB/NORTON
MARINE...CB/NORTON
CLIMATE...CB




000
FXUS61 KCAR 271946
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
246 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE MIDWEST WILL
BUILD SOUTH OF THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS
SOUTH OF THE AREA MONDAY MORNING AND INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES INTO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
TOWARD THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY FROM THE WEST. ANOTHER
LOW WILL LIKELY CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY.


&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A SPRAWLING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED IN THE MIDWEST THIS
AFTERNOON COVERS A LOT OF REAL ESTATE FROM THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS TO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL
MOVE SLOWLY EAST AND WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE POCONOS DOWN INTO
THE TIDEWATER OF VIRGINIA BY 00Z SUNDAY. ALOFT...A QUASI-ZONAL
FLOW PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY WITH A COUPLE OF MINOR
SHORTWAVES TO PASS TO OUR SOUTH.

THE AIR MASS WILL SLOWLY MODERATE THROUGH SAT AND THE 925 MB TEMP
WHICH WAS -22C AT 12Z THIS MORNING AT CARIBOU IS EXPECTED TO RISE
TO AROUND -14Z BY SAT AFTERNOON. FOR TONIGHT...IT WILL BE CLEAR
AND THE ATMOSPHERE WILL QUICKLY DECOUPLE IN THE VALLEYS AS A
RADIATION INVERSION FORMS. EXPECT LOWS TONIGHT TO BE SIMILAR TO
LAST NIGHT...PERHAPS A FEW DEGREES WARMER ON THE HILL TOPS. THAT
SAID...A NUMBER OF THE COLDER NW VALLEYS WILL BE 20 BELOW OR
COLDER AGAIN TONIGHT. MOST AREAS ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE WILL HAVE
LOWS IN THE 10 TO 20 BELOW RANGE...AND FROM 10 BELOW TO ZERO FOR
MUCH OF THE DOWN EAST REGION. NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST
LOWS. SATURDAY WILL BE ANOTHER SUNNY DAY AND WITH A MODERATION OF
THE AIR MASS AS THE INVERSIONS BREAK EXPECT TEMPS TO MODERATE
SIGNIFICANTLY. BASED ON THE TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON GETTING
WARMER THAN FORECAST DID RAISE THE HIGH TEMPS A FEW DEGREES
SAT AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
THE MAJOR SYSTEMS. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE BUILT ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC COAST THATS AND NEW ENGLAND. A LOW OVER HUDSON BAY WITH
ITS ASSOCIATED ARCTIC FRONTAL SYSTEM...A SECOND LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM CENTERED IN THE FOUR CORNERS REGIONS WITH ITS ASSOCIATED
FRONT EXTENDING EAST INTO SRN IL. SUN MRNG THE HIGH BUILDS EAST
INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC...THE WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
OVR FOUR CORNERS EXTEND EAST INTO PA. THE ARCTIC FRONT EXTENDS
SOUTH INTO THE NRN PLAINS. BY SUN EVNG... THESE TWO LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MERGE OVER THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES REGION...THE GFS/NAM SHOWS
A NEW NEW LOW OVER LAKE ONTARIO. THE ECMWF SHOWS A BROAD AREA OF
LOWER PRESSURE IN THE SAME AREA. THE GEM SHOWS THE LOW OVR NRN KY.
THE NEW LOW WILL RAPIDLY DEEPEN AND MOVE EAST. THE GFS MOVES IT TO
VT/NH...THE ECMWF INTO SW GULF OF MAINE. THE GEM/NAM INTO THE SE
GULF OF MAINE. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...THE LOW WILL BE EAST OF
THE AREA...DRAWING ARCTIC AIR ONCE AGAIN INTO THE AREA AS A
CANADIAN HIGH BEGINS TO BUILD IN.

LOADED A BLEND OF THE GFS/NAM/GEM/ECMWF FOR T/TD/WND/POP. LOADED
NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS IN THE COASTAL WATERS. ADDED 15 PERCENT TO WINDS
FOR GUSTS OVER LAND...35 PERCENT FOR GUSTS OVER COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...


AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED A LOW EXITING THE AREA OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES COMBINED WITH AN ADVANCING CANADIAN HIGH
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND VERY COLD AREA OVER THE AREA MON NGT. THE
HIGH WILL CREST OVER THE AREA TUES AFTERNOON...AS ANOTHER FRONTAL
SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE CNTRL US. BY EARLY WED MRNG THE FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO WRN MAINE. EARLY WED AFTERNOON THE FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH MAINE INTO NEW BRUNSWICK...THE ASSOCIATED LOW WILL MOVE TO
ERN QUEBEC. BY THURS MRNG THE LOW WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE
MARITIMES...A SECONDARY TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH NRN MAINE. A
RIDGE OF HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO WRN MAINE. A TROUGH WILL
MOVE THROUGH NRN MAINE EARLY MORNING FRI...OTHERWISE THE RIDGE
WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER INTO EARLY SATURDAY. A NEW LOW WILL MOVE
SE OUT OF NW CANADA ON THURS EVNG...TO LAKE SUPERIOR FRI
AFTERNOON. THE GFS SHOWS ITS ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
WRN MAINE EARLY SAT MRNG AND BY THE END OF THE PERIOD THE LOW WILL
BE OVER SWRN QUEBEC...WITH THE WARM FRONT EXTENDED THROUGH CENTRAL
MAINE. THE ECMWF IS SIMILAR BUT ABOUT 6 HRS BEHIND.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

SHORT TERM: CLR TO PC THROUGH SUN AFTERNOON...INCREASING CLOUDS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON FROM THE SW TO NE. VFR CONDITIONS ALL SITES
THROUGH EARLY SUN EVNG...MVFR BHB AND BGR SUN EVNG AS A LOW MOVES
ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND INTO THE GULF OF MAINE. IFR CONDITIONS
AFTER MIDNIGHT BHB...BGR...VFR OTHER SITES AS THE LOW MOVES
THROUGH THE COASTAL MAINE REGION. CONDITIONS RETURNING TO VFR MON
AFTERNOON ALL SITES.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: THE WIND AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY
HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR TONIGHT THROUGH MID-MORNING SAT.

SHORT TERM: WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA SUN AND EARLY MON. WINDS AND
SEAS WILL BUILD AS A LOW TRACK ACROSS COASTAL REGIONS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVNGS AT THIS TIME WNDS APPEAR TO BE IN THE UPPER
END OF SCA LOWER END GALE FORCE. SEAS BUILDING TO AROUND 7 FT.

&&

.CLIMATE...THIS FEBRUARY WILL END AS THE ALL-TIME COLDEST MONTH
ON RECORD AT BANGOR...AND THE COLDEST FEBRUARY AT CARIBOU. MORE
INFORMATION ON THE COLD FEBRUARY IS AVAILABLE ON THE NEWS
HEADLINES ON THE TOP OF OUR WEB PAGE AT WEATHER.GOV/CAR

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CB
SHORT TERM...NORTON
LONG TERM...NORTON
AVIATION...CB/NORTON
MARINE...CB/NORTON
CLIMATE...CB




000
FXUS61 KCAR 271946
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
246 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE MIDWEST WILL
BUILD SOUTH OF THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS
SOUTH OF THE AREA MONDAY MORNING AND INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES INTO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
TOWARD THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY FROM THE WEST. ANOTHER
LOW WILL LIKELY CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY.


&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A SPRAWLING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED IN THE MIDWEST THIS
AFTERNOON COVERS A LOT OF REAL ESTATE FROM THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS TO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL
MOVE SLOWLY EAST AND WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE POCONOS DOWN INTO
THE TIDEWATER OF VIRGINIA BY 00Z SUNDAY. ALOFT...A QUASI-ZONAL
FLOW PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY WITH A COUPLE OF MINOR
SHORTWAVES TO PASS TO OUR SOUTH.

THE AIR MASS WILL SLOWLY MODERATE THROUGH SAT AND THE 925 MB TEMP
WHICH WAS -22C AT 12Z THIS MORNING AT CARIBOU IS EXPECTED TO RISE
TO AROUND -14Z BY SAT AFTERNOON. FOR TONIGHT...IT WILL BE CLEAR
AND THE ATMOSPHERE WILL QUICKLY DECOUPLE IN THE VALLEYS AS A
RADIATION INVERSION FORMS. EXPECT LOWS TONIGHT TO BE SIMILAR TO
LAST NIGHT...PERHAPS A FEW DEGREES WARMER ON THE HILL TOPS. THAT
SAID...A NUMBER OF THE COLDER NW VALLEYS WILL BE 20 BELOW OR
COLDER AGAIN TONIGHT. MOST AREAS ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE WILL HAVE
LOWS IN THE 10 TO 20 BELOW RANGE...AND FROM 10 BELOW TO ZERO FOR
MUCH OF THE DOWN EAST REGION. NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST
LOWS. SATURDAY WILL BE ANOTHER SUNNY DAY AND WITH A MODERATION OF
THE AIR MASS AS THE INVERSIONS BREAK EXPECT TEMPS TO MODERATE
SIGNIFICANTLY. BASED ON THE TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON GETTING
WARMER THAN FORECAST DID RAISE THE HIGH TEMPS A FEW DEGREES
SAT AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
THE MAJOR SYSTEMS. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE BUILT ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC COAST THATS AND NEW ENGLAND. A LOW OVER HUDSON BAY WITH
ITS ASSOCIATED ARCTIC FRONTAL SYSTEM...A SECOND LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM CENTERED IN THE FOUR CORNERS REGIONS WITH ITS ASSOCIATED
FRONT EXTENDING EAST INTO SRN IL. SUN MRNG THE HIGH BUILDS EAST
INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC...THE WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
OVR FOUR CORNERS EXTEND EAST INTO PA. THE ARCTIC FRONT EXTENDS
SOUTH INTO THE NRN PLAINS. BY SUN EVNG... THESE TWO LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MERGE OVER THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES REGION...THE GFS/NAM SHOWS
A NEW NEW LOW OVER LAKE ONTARIO. THE ECMWF SHOWS A BROAD AREA OF
LOWER PRESSURE IN THE SAME AREA. THE GEM SHOWS THE LOW OVR NRN KY.
THE NEW LOW WILL RAPIDLY DEEPEN AND MOVE EAST. THE GFS MOVES IT TO
VT/NH...THE ECMWF INTO SW GULF OF MAINE. THE GEM/NAM INTO THE SE
GULF OF MAINE. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...THE LOW WILL BE EAST OF
THE AREA...DRAWING ARCTIC AIR ONCE AGAIN INTO THE AREA AS A
CANADIAN HIGH BEGINS TO BUILD IN.

LOADED A BLEND OF THE GFS/NAM/GEM/ECMWF FOR T/TD/WND/POP. LOADED
NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS IN THE COASTAL WATERS. ADDED 15 PERCENT TO WINDS
FOR GUSTS OVER LAND...35 PERCENT FOR GUSTS OVER COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...


AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED A LOW EXITING THE AREA OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES COMBINED WITH AN ADVANCING CANADIAN HIGH
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND VERY COLD AREA OVER THE AREA MON NGT. THE
HIGH WILL CREST OVER THE AREA TUES AFTERNOON...AS ANOTHER FRONTAL
SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE CNTRL US. BY EARLY WED MRNG THE FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO WRN MAINE. EARLY WED AFTERNOON THE FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH MAINE INTO NEW BRUNSWICK...THE ASSOCIATED LOW WILL MOVE TO
ERN QUEBEC. BY THURS MRNG THE LOW WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE
MARITIMES...A SECONDARY TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH NRN MAINE. A
RIDGE OF HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO WRN MAINE. A TROUGH WILL
MOVE THROUGH NRN MAINE EARLY MORNING FRI...OTHERWISE THE RIDGE
WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER INTO EARLY SATURDAY. A NEW LOW WILL MOVE
SE OUT OF NW CANADA ON THURS EVNG...TO LAKE SUPERIOR FRI
AFTERNOON. THE GFS SHOWS ITS ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
WRN MAINE EARLY SAT MRNG AND BY THE END OF THE PERIOD THE LOW WILL
BE OVER SWRN QUEBEC...WITH THE WARM FRONT EXTENDED THROUGH CENTRAL
MAINE. THE ECMWF IS SIMILAR BUT ABOUT 6 HRS BEHIND.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

SHORT TERM: CLR TO PC THROUGH SUN AFTERNOON...INCREASING CLOUDS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON FROM THE SW TO NE. VFR CONDITIONS ALL SITES
THROUGH EARLY SUN EVNG...MVFR BHB AND BGR SUN EVNG AS A LOW MOVES
ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND INTO THE GULF OF MAINE. IFR CONDITIONS
AFTER MIDNIGHT BHB...BGR...VFR OTHER SITES AS THE LOW MOVES
THROUGH THE COASTAL MAINE REGION. CONDITIONS RETURNING TO VFR MON
AFTERNOON ALL SITES.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: THE WIND AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY
HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR TONIGHT THROUGH MID-MORNING SAT.

SHORT TERM: WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA SUN AND EARLY MON. WINDS AND
SEAS WILL BUILD AS A LOW TRACK ACROSS COASTAL REGIONS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVNGS AT THIS TIME WNDS APPEAR TO BE IN THE UPPER
END OF SCA LOWER END GALE FORCE. SEAS BUILDING TO AROUND 7 FT.

&&

.CLIMATE...THIS FEBRUARY WILL END AS THE ALL-TIME COLDEST MONTH
ON RECORD AT BANGOR...AND THE COLDEST FEBRUARY AT CARIBOU. MORE
INFORMATION ON THE COLD FEBRUARY IS AVAILABLE ON THE NEWS
HEADLINES ON THE TOP OF OUR WEB PAGE AT WEATHER.GOV/CAR

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CB
SHORT TERM...NORTON
LONG TERM...NORTON
AVIATION...CB/NORTON
MARINE...CB/NORTON
CLIMATE...CB




000
FXUS61 KCAR 271946
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
246 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE MIDWEST WILL
BUILD SOUTH OF THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS
SOUTH OF THE AREA MONDAY MORNING AND INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES INTO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
TOWARD THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY FROM THE WEST. ANOTHER
LOW WILL LIKELY CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY.


&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A SPRAWLING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED IN THE MIDWEST THIS
AFTERNOON COVERS A LOT OF REAL ESTATE FROM THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS TO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL
MOVE SLOWLY EAST AND WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE POCONOS DOWN INTO
THE TIDEWATER OF VIRGINIA BY 00Z SUNDAY. ALOFT...A QUASI-ZONAL
FLOW PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY WITH A COUPLE OF MINOR
SHORTWAVES TO PASS TO OUR SOUTH.

THE AIR MASS WILL SLOWLY MODERATE THROUGH SAT AND THE 925 MB TEMP
WHICH WAS -22C AT 12Z THIS MORNING AT CARIBOU IS EXPECTED TO RISE
TO AROUND -14Z BY SAT AFTERNOON. FOR TONIGHT...IT WILL BE CLEAR
AND THE ATMOSPHERE WILL QUICKLY DECOUPLE IN THE VALLEYS AS A
RADIATION INVERSION FORMS. EXPECT LOWS TONIGHT TO BE SIMILAR TO
LAST NIGHT...PERHAPS A FEW DEGREES WARMER ON THE HILL TOPS. THAT
SAID...A NUMBER OF THE COLDER NW VALLEYS WILL BE 20 BELOW OR
COLDER AGAIN TONIGHT. MOST AREAS ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE WILL HAVE
LOWS IN THE 10 TO 20 BELOW RANGE...AND FROM 10 BELOW TO ZERO FOR
MUCH OF THE DOWN EAST REGION. NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST
LOWS. SATURDAY WILL BE ANOTHER SUNNY DAY AND WITH A MODERATION OF
THE AIR MASS AS THE INVERSIONS BREAK EXPECT TEMPS TO MODERATE
SIGNIFICANTLY. BASED ON THE TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON GETTING
WARMER THAN FORECAST DID RAISE THE HIGH TEMPS A FEW DEGREES
SAT AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
THE MAJOR SYSTEMS. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE BUILT ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC COAST THATS AND NEW ENGLAND. A LOW OVER HUDSON BAY WITH
ITS ASSOCIATED ARCTIC FRONTAL SYSTEM...A SECOND LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM CENTERED IN THE FOUR CORNERS REGIONS WITH ITS ASSOCIATED
FRONT EXTENDING EAST INTO SRN IL. SUN MRNG THE HIGH BUILDS EAST
INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC...THE WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
OVR FOUR CORNERS EXTEND EAST INTO PA. THE ARCTIC FRONT EXTENDS
SOUTH INTO THE NRN PLAINS. BY SUN EVNG... THESE TWO LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MERGE OVER THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES REGION...THE GFS/NAM SHOWS
A NEW NEW LOW OVER LAKE ONTARIO. THE ECMWF SHOWS A BROAD AREA OF
LOWER PRESSURE IN THE SAME AREA. THE GEM SHOWS THE LOW OVR NRN KY.
THE NEW LOW WILL RAPIDLY DEEPEN AND MOVE EAST. THE GFS MOVES IT TO
VT/NH...THE ECMWF INTO SW GULF OF MAINE. THE GEM/NAM INTO THE SE
GULF OF MAINE. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...THE LOW WILL BE EAST OF
THE AREA...DRAWING ARCTIC AIR ONCE AGAIN INTO THE AREA AS A
CANADIAN HIGH BEGINS TO BUILD IN.

LOADED A BLEND OF THE GFS/NAM/GEM/ECMWF FOR T/TD/WND/POP. LOADED
NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS IN THE COASTAL WATERS. ADDED 15 PERCENT TO WINDS
FOR GUSTS OVER LAND...35 PERCENT FOR GUSTS OVER COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...


AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED A LOW EXITING THE AREA OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES COMBINED WITH AN ADVANCING CANADIAN HIGH
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND VERY COLD AREA OVER THE AREA MON NGT. THE
HIGH WILL CREST OVER THE AREA TUES AFTERNOON...AS ANOTHER FRONTAL
SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE CNTRL US. BY EARLY WED MRNG THE FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO WRN MAINE. EARLY WED AFTERNOON THE FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH MAINE INTO NEW BRUNSWICK...THE ASSOCIATED LOW WILL MOVE TO
ERN QUEBEC. BY THURS MRNG THE LOW WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE
MARITIMES...A SECONDARY TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH NRN MAINE. A
RIDGE OF HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO WRN MAINE. A TROUGH WILL
MOVE THROUGH NRN MAINE EARLY MORNING FRI...OTHERWISE THE RIDGE
WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER INTO EARLY SATURDAY. A NEW LOW WILL MOVE
SE OUT OF NW CANADA ON THURS EVNG...TO LAKE SUPERIOR FRI
AFTERNOON. THE GFS SHOWS ITS ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
WRN MAINE EARLY SAT MRNG AND BY THE END OF THE PERIOD THE LOW WILL
BE OVER SWRN QUEBEC...WITH THE WARM FRONT EXTENDED THROUGH CENTRAL
MAINE. THE ECMWF IS SIMILAR BUT ABOUT 6 HRS BEHIND.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

SHORT TERM: CLR TO PC THROUGH SUN AFTERNOON...INCREASING CLOUDS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON FROM THE SW TO NE. VFR CONDITIONS ALL SITES
THROUGH EARLY SUN EVNG...MVFR BHB AND BGR SUN EVNG AS A LOW MOVES
ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND INTO THE GULF OF MAINE. IFR CONDITIONS
AFTER MIDNIGHT BHB...BGR...VFR OTHER SITES AS THE LOW MOVES
THROUGH THE COASTAL MAINE REGION. CONDITIONS RETURNING TO VFR MON
AFTERNOON ALL SITES.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: THE WIND AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY
HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR TONIGHT THROUGH MID-MORNING SAT.

SHORT TERM: WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA SUN AND EARLY MON. WINDS AND
SEAS WILL BUILD AS A LOW TRACK ACROSS COASTAL REGIONS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVNGS AT THIS TIME WNDS APPEAR TO BE IN THE UPPER
END OF SCA LOWER END GALE FORCE. SEAS BUILDING TO AROUND 7 FT.

&&

.CLIMATE...THIS FEBRUARY WILL END AS THE ALL-TIME COLDEST MONTH
ON RECORD AT BANGOR...AND THE COLDEST FEBRUARY AT CARIBOU. MORE
INFORMATION ON THE COLD FEBRUARY IS AVAILABLE ON THE NEWS
HEADLINES ON THE TOP OF OUR WEB PAGE AT WEATHER.GOV/CAR

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CB
SHORT TERM...NORTON
LONG TERM...NORTON
AVIATION...CB/NORTON
MARINE...CB/NORTON
CLIMATE...CB




000
FXUS61 KCAR 271721
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1221 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA
LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN BEHIND THIS LOW MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1221 PM UPDATE...THE LATE FEBRUARY SUN WITH THE HIGHER SUN ANGLE
IS WORKING ITS MAGIC AND TEMPS ARE RESPONDING NICELY. A NUMBER OF
SPOTS ARE AT THE FORECAST HIGHS AND WILL NEED TO MAKE SOME
ADJUSTMENTS TO RAISE THE HIGH TEMPS 3 TO 5 DEGREES IN MANY AREAS.
OTHERWISE...THE ONGOING FORECAST IS IN GREAT SHAPE.

ORGNL DISC: STRONG AND SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVR THE
MIDWEST WILL RIDGE ALL THE WAY INTO OUR FA TDY THRU SAT. THIS
SYSTEM WILL DISSIPATE ANY LEFT OVR CLDNSS OVR CNTRL AND DOWNEAST
AREAS THIS MORN BY AFTN.

OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL BE THE TRICKIEST PART OF THIS PTN OF THE
FCST...SINCE ENOUGH PRES GRAD...LLVL LAPSE RATES AND WINDS ALF
WILL BE PRESENT FOR FAIRLY BRISK CONDITIONS BOTH DAYS...BUT NOT
ENOUGH FOR LOW LYING...SPCLY BROAD RVR VLY AREAS TNGT...MEANING
WINDS WILL BECOME LGT AND VARIABLE TNGT OVR THESE AREAS...BUT
MAINTAINING A BREEZE ON HILLSIDES. EMPHASIS ON THIS FCST UPDATE
WAS PLACED ON TRRN DETAILS DRIVEN BY DAY/NIGHT AND VLY/HIER TRRN
WIND/WIND GUST REGIMES SET UP BY AN W TO E RIDGE AXIS PATTERN
ACROSS OUR REGION.

THE IMPACT ON FCST HIGH TEMPS TDY WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO THU`S
HI TEMPS...SINCE FCST AFTN 925 MB TEMPS TDY WILL BE SIMILAR TO
YSTDY. HIGH TEMPS SAT WILL BE ABOUT 5 TO 6 DEG WARMER THAN FRI
WITH FCST AFTN 925 MB TEMPS ABOUT 3 DEG C WARMER THAN FRI. LOW
TEMPS TNGT WILL SHOW EXTRA WIDE VARIATION BETWEEN COLDER LOW LYING
LCTNS AND HILLTOP LCTNS WHICH WILL REMAIN UP TO 10 TO 15 DEG F
WARMER DUE TO WIND SPEEDS OF 5 MPH OR MORE KEEPING THE BL TO
MIXED FOR ANY SFC INVSN TO FORM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE BIGGEST
QUESTION FOR SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE EXTENT OF NIGHTTIME
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND DECOUPLING VERSUS PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST
WINDS ON THE NORTH SIDE OF A 1040MB HIGH. AT THIS POINT...HAVE
LEANED TOWARDS A SOLUTION INDICATED BY THE BIAS-CORRECTED NAM WITH
THE COLDER TEMPERATURES IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
WHERE DECOUPLING AND A DEEPER INVERSION ARE MOST LIKELY. HIGHS ON
SUNDAY WILL REACH INTO THE 20S ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA
WITH SOME LOW 30S ON THE COAST. WHILE SATURDAY WILL FEATURE SUNNY
SKIES...HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH SUNDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING LOW.

SUNDAY NIGHT...A SHORTWAVE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM MOVING SOUTH
OUT OF THE DAKOTAS WILL ENERGIZE A BAROCLINIC ZONE IN THE OHIO
VALLEY. THE RESULTANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP IN THE GULF
OF MAINE MONDAY MORNING AND DEEPEN QUICKLY IN THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS LOW WILL BRING SNOW TO THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AND FOLLOW THE RECENT PATTERN OF
HIGHER TOTALS DOWN EAST AND VIRTUALLY NOTHING IN THE SAINT JOHN
VALLEY. HAVE SPECIFIED CATEGORICAL POPS ALONG THE DOWN EAST COAST
AND TAPERED TO SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE CROWN OF MAINE. THIS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE A FAST-MOVER AND WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
ADVISORY-LEVEL SNOWFALL IN THE DOWN EAST ZONES. ANOTHER SHOT OF
ARCTIC AIR SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA BEHIND THE LOW LATER MONDAY.
SINCE THE LOW DEEPENS SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...
EXPECT STRONG WINDS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY NIGHT. A WIND
CHILL ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD RAPIDLY TUESDAY WITH DECREASING WINDS.
THE HIGH WILL PROVIDE A SUNNY AND COLD DAY FOR TUESDAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER TEENS NORTH AND LOW-MID 20S FOR BANGOR AND DOWN EAST.
LOW TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY NIGHT WILL OCCUR BEFORE MIDNIGHT SINCE
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE MOVING
RAPIDLY OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION IN THE SOUTHWESTERN US.
THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO GENERATE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
OVERRUNNING SNOW LATER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH STRONG
WARM AIR ADVECTION. BEING A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM...IT WILL DRAW
SUFFICIENTLY WARMER AIR ALOFT TO CHANGE PRECIP TO DRIZZLE...FREEZING
RAIN AND SLEET LATER WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL
FALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW BEFORE THE WARMER AIR ARRIVES. SNOWFALL
WILL BE WET AND HEAVY COMPARED TO RECENT EVENTS AND WILL MOST
LIKELY BE ANOTHER ADVISORY EVENT WITH LOW SNOW-WATER RATIOS. HAVE
NOT ADDED FOG TO THE FORECAST FOR LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
MORNING...BUT IT WILL LIKELY OCCUR WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE WARMER
SURFACE AIR. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO THE WARMEST SINCE THE
LAST RAIN EVENT ON JAN 19. THE WARM AIR WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS AN
ARCTIC FRONT ARRIVES LATER THURSDAY WITH A RETURN TO THE DEEP
FREEZE. THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT A SECONDARY WAVE COULD DEVELOP
ON THE COLD FRONT AND AFFECT THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA ON
THURSDAY...BUT IT ONLY MERITS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS XPCTD ALL TAF SITES TDY THRU SAT.

SHORT TERM: VFR SAT NGT UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT. BECOMING IFR IN SNOW
LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY MVFR CIGS
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALL TERMINALS WILL BE VFR LATER
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WILL DROP THE FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY WITH THIS UPDATE.
STILL EXPECT LGT FZG SPY THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY WITH A
POSSIBILITY OF MORE MDT FZG SPY REQUIRING AN AN ADDITIONAL SPY ADV
LATE TNGT INTO SAT MORN. OTHERWISE...NO WIND/WV HDLNS NEEDED TDY
THRU SAT. KEPT CLOSE TO WW3 WV GUIDANCE WITH LATEST BUOY OBS NOT
SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF MARKED DEVIATION FROM THE GUIDANCE.

SHORT TERM: A LOW-END GALE IS EXPECTED LATER MONDAY. ANOTHER SCA
IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
BANGOR IS STILL ON TRACK FOR THE COLDEST FEBRUARY AND
ALL-TIME COLDEST MONTH ON RECORD. CARIBOU REMAINS ON PACE FOR THE
COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD...AND THE TOP 3 OR 4 ALL-TIME COLDEST
MONTHS ON RECORD.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CB/VJN
SHORT TERM...MCW
LONG TERM...MCW
AVIATION...CB/VJN/MCW
MARINE...CB/VJN/MCW
CLIMATE...VJN/CB




000
FXUS61 KCAR 271721
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1221 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA
LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN BEHIND THIS LOW MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1221 PM UPDATE...THE LATE FEBRUARY SUN WITH THE HIGHER SUN ANGLE
IS WORKING ITS MAGIC AND TEMPS ARE RESPONDING NICELY. A NUMBER OF
SPOTS ARE AT THE FORECAST HIGHS AND WILL NEED TO MAKE SOME
ADJUSTMENTS TO RAISE THE HIGH TEMPS 3 TO 5 DEGREES IN MANY AREAS.
OTHERWISE...THE ONGOING FORECAST IS IN GREAT SHAPE.

ORGNL DISC: STRONG AND SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVR THE
MIDWEST WILL RIDGE ALL THE WAY INTO OUR FA TDY THRU SAT. THIS
SYSTEM WILL DISSIPATE ANY LEFT OVR CLDNSS OVR CNTRL AND DOWNEAST
AREAS THIS MORN BY AFTN.

OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL BE THE TRICKIEST PART OF THIS PTN OF THE
FCST...SINCE ENOUGH PRES GRAD...LLVL LAPSE RATES AND WINDS ALF
WILL BE PRESENT FOR FAIRLY BRISK CONDITIONS BOTH DAYS...BUT NOT
ENOUGH FOR LOW LYING...SPCLY BROAD RVR VLY AREAS TNGT...MEANING
WINDS WILL BECOME LGT AND VARIABLE TNGT OVR THESE AREAS...BUT
MAINTAINING A BREEZE ON HILLSIDES. EMPHASIS ON THIS FCST UPDATE
WAS PLACED ON TRRN DETAILS DRIVEN BY DAY/NIGHT AND VLY/HIER TRRN
WIND/WIND GUST REGIMES SET UP BY AN W TO E RIDGE AXIS PATTERN
ACROSS OUR REGION.

THE IMPACT ON FCST HIGH TEMPS TDY WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO THU`S
HI TEMPS...SINCE FCST AFTN 925 MB TEMPS TDY WILL BE SIMILAR TO
YSTDY. HIGH TEMPS SAT WILL BE ABOUT 5 TO 6 DEG WARMER THAN FRI
WITH FCST AFTN 925 MB TEMPS ABOUT 3 DEG C WARMER THAN FRI. LOW
TEMPS TNGT WILL SHOW EXTRA WIDE VARIATION BETWEEN COLDER LOW LYING
LCTNS AND HILLTOP LCTNS WHICH WILL REMAIN UP TO 10 TO 15 DEG F
WARMER DUE TO WIND SPEEDS OF 5 MPH OR MORE KEEPING THE BL TO
MIXED FOR ANY SFC INVSN TO FORM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE BIGGEST
QUESTION FOR SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE EXTENT OF NIGHTTIME
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND DECOUPLING VERSUS PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST
WINDS ON THE NORTH SIDE OF A 1040MB HIGH. AT THIS POINT...HAVE
LEANED TOWARDS A SOLUTION INDICATED BY THE BIAS-CORRECTED NAM WITH
THE COLDER TEMPERATURES IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
WHERE DECOUPLING AND A DEEPER INVERSION ARE MOST LIKELY. HIGHS ON
SUNDAY WILL REACH INTO THE 20S ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA
WITH SOME LOW 30S ON THE COAST. WHILE SATURDAY WILL FEATURE SUNNY
SKIES...HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH SUNDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING LOW.

SUNDAY NIGHT...A SHORTWAVE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM MOVING SOUTH
OUT OF THE DAKOTAS WILL ENERGIZE A BAROCLINIC ZONE IN THE OHIO
VALLEY. THE RESULTANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP IN THE GULF
OF MAINE MONDAY MORNING AND DEEPEN QUICKLY IN THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS LOW WILL BRING SNOW TO THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AND FOLLOW THE RECENT PATTERN OF
HIGHER TOTALS DOWN EAST AND VIRTUALLY NOTHING IN THE SAINT JOHN
VALLEY. HAVE SPECIFIED CATEGORICAL POPS ALONG THE DOWN EAST COAST
AND TAPERED TO SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE CROWN OF MAINE. THIS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE A FAST-MOVER AND WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
ADVISORY-LEVEL SNOWFALL IN THE DOWN EAST ZONES. ANOTHER SHOT OF
ARCTIC AIR SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA BEHIND THE LOW LATER MONDAY.
SINCE THE LOW DEEPENS SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...
EXPECT STRONG WINDS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY NIGHT. A WIND
CHILL ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD RAPIDLY TUESDAY WITH DECREASING WINDS.
THE HIGH WILL PROVIDE A SUNNY AND COLD DAY FOR TUESDAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER TEENS NORTH AND LOW-MID 20S FOR BANGOR AND DOWN EAST.
LOW TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY NIGHT WILL OCCUR BEFORE MIDNIGHT SINCE
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE MOVING
RAPIDLY OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION IN THE SOUTHWESTERN US.
THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO GENERATE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
OVERRUNNING SNOW LATER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH STRONG
WARM AIR ADVECTION. BEING A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM...IT WILL DRAW
SUFFICIENTLY WARMER AIR ALOFT TO CHANGE PRECIP TO DRIZZLE...FREEZING
RAIN AND SLEET LATER WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL
FALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW BEFORE THE WARMER AIR ARRIVES. SNOWFALL
WILL BE WET AND HEAVY COMPARED TO RECENT EVENTS AND WILL MOST
LIKELY BE ANOTHER ADVISORY EVENT WITH LOW SNOW-WATER RATIOS. HAVE
NOT ADDED FOG TO THE FORECAST FOR LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
MORNING...BUT IT WILL LIKELY OCCUR WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE WARMER
SURFACE AIR. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO THE WARMEST SINCE THE
LAST RAIN EVENT ON JAN 19. THE WARM AIR WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS AN
ARCTIC FRONT ARRIVES LATER THURSDAY WITH A RETURN TO THE DEEP
FREEZE. THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT A SECONDARY WAVE COULD DEVELOP
ON THE COLD FRONT AND AFFECT THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA ON
THURSDAY...BUT IT ONLY MERITS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS XPCTD ALL TAF SITES TDY THRU SAT.

SHORT TERM: VFR SAT NGT UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT. BECOMING IFR IN SNOW
LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY MVFR CIGS
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALL TERMINALS WILL BE VFR LATER
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WILL DROP THE FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY WITH THIS UPDATE.
STILL EXPECT LGT FZG SPY THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY WITH A
POSSIBILITY OF MORE MDT FZG SPY REQUIRING AN AN ADDITIONAL SPY ADV
LATE TNGT INTO SAT MORN. OTHERWISE...NO WIND/WV HDLNS NEEDED TDY
THRU SAT. KEPT CLOSE TO WW3 WV GUIDANCE WITH LATEST BUOY OBS NOT
SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF MARKED DEVIATION FROM THE GUIDANCE.

SHORT TERM: A LOW-END GALE IS EXPECTED LATER MONDAY. ANOTHER SCA
IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
BANGOR IS STILL ON TRACK FOR THE COLDEST FEBRUARY AND
ALL-TIME COLDEST MONTH ON RECORD. CARIBOU REMAINS ON PACE FOR THE
COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD...AND THE TOP 3 OR 4 ALL-TIME COLDEST
MONTHS ON RECORD.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CB/VJN
SHORT TERM...MCW
LONG TERM...MCW
AVIATION...CB/VJN/MCW
MARINE...CB/VJN/MCW
CLIMATE...VJN/CB



000
FXUS61 KCAR 271429
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
929 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA
LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN BEHIND THIS LOW MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
929 AM UPDATE...A BRIGHT AND SUNNY BUT COLD LATE WINTER DAY
ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN MAINE WITH TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON TO RUN
ABOUT 15 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMS. 925 MB TEMP ON THE 12Z KCAR
SOUNDING WAS -22C...WHICH WAS LITTLE CHANGED FROM YESTERDAY
MORNING. EXPECT HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON TO BE VERY CLOSE TO THE HIGH
TEMPS THURSDAY. THERE IS DECENT WIND SHOWING UP ABOVE THE FAIRLY
SHALLOW INVERSION THIS MORNING...SO EXPECT THE WIND TO PICK UP
LATE THIS MORNING TO 15 TO 20 MPH WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS AS THE
INVERSIONS BREAK AND THE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN. THE WIND
WILL ADD A BIT TO THE CHILL. THE ONGOING FORECAST HAS A GREAT
HANDLE ON THINGS...AND ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON THE 9 AM
OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE PICTURES.

ORGNL DISC: STRONG AND SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVR THE
MIDWEST WILL RIDGE ALL THE WAY INTO OUR FA TDY THRU SAT. THIS
SYSTEM WILL DISSIPATE ANY LEFT OVR CLDNSS OVR CNTRL AND DOWNEAST
AREAS THIS MORN BY AFTN.

OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL BE THE TRICKIEST PART OF THIS PTN OF THE
FCST...SINCE ENOUGH PRES GRAD...LLVL LAPSE RATES AND WINDS ALF
WILL BE PRESENT FOR FAIRLY BRISK CONDITIONS BOTH DAYS...BUT NOT
ENOUGH FOR LOW LYING...SPCLY BROAD RVR VLY AREAS TNGT...MEANING
WINDS WILL BECOME LGT AND VARIABLE TNGT OVR THESE AREAS...BUT
MAINTAINING A BREEZE ON HILLSIDES. EMPHASIS ON THIS FCST UPDATE
WAS PLACED ON TRRN DETAILS DRIVEN BY DAY/NIGHT AND VLY/HIER TRRN
WIND/WIND GUST REGIMES SET UP BY AN W TO E RIDGE AXIS PATTERN
ACROSS OUR REGION.

THE IMPACT ON FCST HIGH TEMPS TDY WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO THU`S
HI TEMPS...SINCE FCST AFTN 925 MB TEMPS TDY WILL BE SIMILAR TO
YSTDY. HIGH TEMPS SAT WILL BE ABOUT 5 TO 6 DEG WARMER THAN FRI
WITH FCST AFTN 925 MB TEMPS ABOUT 3 DEG C WARMER THAN FRI. LOW
TEMPS TNGT WILL SHOW EXTRA WIDE VARIATION BETWEEN COLDER LOW LYING
LCTNS AND HILLTOP LCTNS WHICH WILL REMAIN UP TO 10 TO 15 DEG F
WARMER DUE TO WIND SPEEDS OF 5 MPH OR MORE KEEPING THE BL TO
MIXED FOR ANY SFC INVSN TO FORM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE BIGGEST
QUESTION FOR SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE EXTENT OF NIGHTTIME
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND DECOUPLING VERSUS PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST
WINDS ON THE NORTH SIDE OF A 1040MB HIGH. AT THIS POINT...HAVE
LEANED TOWARDS A SOLUTION INDICATED BY THE BIAS-CORRECTED NAM WITH
THE COLDER TEMPERATURES IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
WHERE DECOUPLING AND A DEEPER INVERSION ARE MOST LIKELY. HIGHS ON
SUNDAY WILL REACH INTO THE 20S ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA
WITH SOME LOW 30S ON THE COAST. WHILE SATURDAY WILL FEATURE SUNNY
SKIES...HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH SUNDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING LOW.

SUNDAY NIGHT...A SHORTWAVE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM MOVING SOUTH
OUT OF THE DAKOTAS WILL ENERGIZE A BAROCLINIC ZONE IN THE OHIO
VALLEY. THE RESULTANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP IN THE GULF
OF MAINE MONDAY MORNING AND DEEPEN QUICKLY IN THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS LOW WILL BRING SNOW TO THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AND FOLLOW THE RECENT PATTERN OF
HIGHER TOTALS DOWN EAST AND VIRTUALLY NOTHING IN THE SAINT JOHN
VALLEY. HAVE SPECIFIED CATEGORICAL POPS ALONG THE DOWN EAST COAST
AND TAPERED TO SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE CROWN OF MAINE. THIS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE A FAST-MOVER AND WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
ADVISORY-LEVEL SNOWFALL IN THE DOWN EAST ZONES. ANOTHER SHOT OF
ARCTIC AIR SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA BEHIND THE LOW LATER MONDAY.
SINCE THE LOW DEEPENS SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...
EXPECT STRONG WINDS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY NIGHT. A WIND
CHILL ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD RAPIDLY TUESDAY WITH DECREASING WINDS.
THE HIGH WILL PROVIDE A SUNNY AND COLD DAY FOR TUESDAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER TEENS NORTH AND LOW-MID 20S FOR BANGOR AND DOWN EAST.
LOW TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY NIGHT WILL OCCUR BEFORE MIDNIGHT SINCE
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE MOVING
RAPIDLY OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION IN THE SOUTHWESTERN US.
THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO GENERATE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
OVERRUNNING SNOW LATER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH STRONG
WARM AIR ADVECTION. BEING A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM...IT WILL DRAW
SUFFICIENTLY WARMER AIR ALOFT TO CHANGE PRECIP TO DRIZZLE...FREEZING
RAIN AND SLEET LATER WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL
FALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW BEFORE THE WARMER AIR ARRIVES. SNOWFALL
WILL BE WET AND HEAVY COMPARED TO RECENT EVENTS AND WILL MOST
LIKELY BE ANOTHER ADVISORY EVENT WITH LOW SNOW-WATER RATIOS. HAVE
NOT ADDED FOG TO THE FORECAST FOR LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
MORNING...BUT IT WILL LIKELY OCCUR WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE WARMER
SURFACE AIR. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO THE WARMEST SINCE THE
LAST RAIN EVENT ON JAN 19. THE WARM AIR WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS AN
ARCTIC FRONT ARRIVES LATER THURSDAY WITH A RETURN TO THE DEEP
FREEZE. THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT A SECONDARY WAVE COULD DEVELOP
ON THE COLD FRONT AND AFFECT THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA ON
THURSDAY...BUT IT ONLY MERITS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS XPCTD ALL TAF SITES TDY THRU SAT.

SHORT TERM: VFR SAT NGT UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT. BECOMING IFR IN SNOW
LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY MVFR CIGS
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALL TERMINALS WILL BE VFR LATER
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WILL DROP THE FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY WITH THIS UPDATE.
STILL EXPECT LGT FZG SPY THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY WITH A
POSSIBILITY OF MORE MDT FZG SPY REQUIRING AN AN ADDITIONAL SPY ADV
LATE TNGT INTO SAT MORN. OTHERWISE...NO WIND/WV HDLNS NEEDED TDY
THRU SAT. KEPT CLOSE TO WW3 WV GUIDANCE WITH LATEST BUOY OBS NOT
SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF MARKED DEVIATION FROM THE GUIDANCE.

SHORT TERM: A LOW-END GALE IS EXPECTED LATER MONDAY. ANOTHER SCA
IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
BANGOR IS STILL ON TRACK FOR THE COLDEST FEBRUARY AND
ALL-TIME COLDEST MONTH ON RECORD. CARIBOU REMAINS ON PACE FOR THE
COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD...AND THE TOP 3 OR 4 ALL-TIME COLDEST
MONTHS ON RECORD.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CB/VJN
SHORT TERM...MCW
LONG TERM...MCW
AVIATION...CB/VJN/MCW
MARINE...CB/VJN/MCW
CLIMATE...VJN/CB




000
FXUS61 KCAR 271429
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
929 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA
LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN BEHIND THIS LOW MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
929 AM UPDATE...A BRIGHT AND SUNNY BUT COLD LATE WINTER DAY
ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN MAINE WITH TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON TO RUN
ABOUT 15 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMS. 925 MB TEMP ON THE 12Z KCAR
SOUNDING WAS -22C...WHICH WAS LITTLE CHANGED FROM YESTERDAY
MORNING. EXPECT HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON TO BE VERY CLOSE TO THE HIGH
TEMPS THURSDAY. THERE IS DECENT WIND SHOWING UP ABOVE THE FAIRLY
SHALLOW INVERSION THIS MORNING...SO EXPECT THE WIND TO PICK UP
LATE THIS MORNING TO 15 TO 20 MPH WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS AS THE
INVERSIONS BREAK AND THE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN. THE WIND
WILL ADD A BIT TO THE CHILL. THE ONGOING FORECAST HAS A GREAT
HANDLE ON THINGS...AND ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON THE 9 AM
OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE PICTURES.

ORGNL DISC: STRONG AND SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVR THE
MIDWEST WILL RIDGE ALL THE WAY INTO OUR FA TDY THRU SAT. THIS
SYSTEM WILL DISSIPATE ANY LEFT OVR CLDNSS OVR CNTRL AND DOWNEAST
AREAS THIS MORN BY AFTN.

OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL BE THE TRICKIEST PART OF THIS PTN OF THE
FCST...SINCE ENOUGH PRES GRAD...LLVL LAPSE RATES AND WINDS ALF
WILL BE PRESENT FOR FAIRLY BRISK CONDITIONS BOTH DAYS...BUT NOT
ENOUGH FOR LOW LYING...SPCLY BROAD RVR VLY AREAS TNGT...MEANING
WINDS WILL BECOME LGT AND VARIABLE TNGT OVR THESE AREAS...BUT
MAINTAINING A BREEZE ON HILLSIDES. EMPHASIS ON THIS FCST UPDATE
WAS PLACED ON TRRN DETAILS DRIVEN BY DAY/NIGHT AND VLY/HIER TRRN
WIND/WIND GUST REGIMES SET UP BY AN W TO E RIDGE AXIS PATTERN
ACROSS OUR REGION.

THE IMPACT ON FCST HIGH TEMPS TDY WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO THU`S
HI TEMPS...SINCE FCST AFTN 925 MB TEMPS TDY WILL BE SIMILAR TO
YSTDY. HIGH TEMPS SAT WILL BE ABOUT 5 TO 6 DEG WARMER THAN FRI
WITH FCST AFTN 925 MB TEMPS ABOUT 3 DEG C WARMER THAN FRI. LOW
TEMPS TNGT WILL SHOW EXTRA WIDE VARIATION BETWEEN COLDER LOW LYING
LCTNS AND HILLTOP LCTNS WHICH WILL REMAIN UP TO 10 TO 15 DEG F
WARMER DUE TO WIND SPEEDS OF 5 MPH OR MORE KEEPING THE BL TO
MIXED FOR ANY SFC INVSN TO FORM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE BIGGEST
QUESTION FOR SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE EXTENT OF NIGHTTIME
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND DECOUPLING VERSUS PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST
WINDS ON THE NORTH SIDE OF A 1040MB HIGH. AT THIS POINT...HAVE
LEANED TOWARDS A SOLUTION INDICATED BY THE BIAS-CORRECTED NAM WITH
THE COLDER TEMPERATURES IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
WHERE DECOUPLING AND A DEEPER INVERSION ARE MOST LIKELY. HIGHS ON
SUNDAY WILL REACH INTO THE 20S ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA
WITH SOME LOW 30S ON THE COAST. WHILE SATURDAY WILL FEATURE SUNNY
SKIES...HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH SUNDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING LOW.

SUNDAY NIGHT...A SHORTWAVE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM MOVING SOUTH
OUT OF THE DAKOTAS WILL ENERGIZE A BAROCLINIC ZONE IN THE OHIO
VALLEY. THE RESULTANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP IN THE GULF
OF MAINE MONDAY MORNING AND DEEPEN QUICKLY IN THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS LOW WILL BRING SNOW TO THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AND FOLLOW THE RECENT PATTERN OF
HIGHER TOTALS DOWN EAST AND VIRTUALLY NOTHING IN THE SAINT JOHN
VALLEY. HAVE SPECIFIED CATEGORICAL POPS ALONG THE DOWN EAST COAST
AND TAPERED TO SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE CROWN OF MAINE. THIS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE A FAST-MOVER AND WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
ADVISORY-LEVEL SNOWFALL IN THE DOWN EAST ZONES. ANOTHER SHOT OF
ARCTIC AIR SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA BEHIND THE LOW LATER MONDAY.
SINCE THE LOW DEEPENS SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...
EXPECT STRONG WINDS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY NIGHT. A WIND
CHILL ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD RAPIDLY TUESDAY WITH DECREASING WINDS.
THE HIGH WILL PROVIDE A SUNNY AND COLD DAY FOR TUESDAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER TEENS NORTH AND LOW-MID 20S FOR BANGOR AND DOWN EAST.
LOW TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY NIGHT WILL OCCUR BEFORE MIDNIGHT SINCE
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE MOVING
RAPIDLY OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION IN THE SOUTHWESTERN US.
THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO GENERATE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
OVERRUNNING SNOW LATER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH STRONG
WARM AIR ADVECTION. BEING A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM...IT WILL DRAW
SUFFICIENTLY WARMER AIR ALOFT TO CHANGE PRECIP TO DRIZZLE...FREEZING
RAIN AND SLEET LATER WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL
FALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW BEFORE THE WARMER AIR ARRIVES. SNOWFALL
WILL BE WET AND HEAVY COMPARED TO RECENT EVENTS AND WILL MOST
LIKELY BE ANOTHER ADVISORY EVENT WITH LOW SNOW-WATER RATIOS. HAVE
NOT ADDED FOG TO THE FORECAST FOR LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
MORNING...BUT IT WILL LIKELY OCCUR WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE WARMER
SURFACE AIR. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO THE WARMEST SINCE THE
LAST RAIN EVENT ON JAN 19. THE WARM AIR WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS AN
ARCTIC FRONT ARRIVES LATER THURSDAY WITH A RETURN TO THE DEEP
FREEZE. THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT A SECONDARY WAVE COULD DEVELOP
ON THE COLD FRONT AND AFFECT THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA ON
THURSDAY...BUT IT ONLY MERITS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS XPCTD ALL TAF SITES TDY THRU SAT.

SHORT TERM: VFR SAT NGT UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT. BECOMING IFR IN SNOW
LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY MVFR CIGS
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALL TERMINALS WILL BE VFR LATER
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WILL DROP THE FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY WITH THIS UPDATE.
STILL EXPECT LGT FZG SPY THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY WITH A
POSSIBILITY OF MORE MDT FZG SPY REQUIRING AN AN ADDITIONAL SPY ADV
LATE TNGT INTO SAT MORN. OTHERWISE...NO WIND/WV HDLNS NEEDED TDY
THRU SAT. KEPT CLOSE TO WW3 WV GUIDANCE WITH LATEST BUOY OBS NOT
SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF MARKED DEVIATION FROM THE GUIDANCE.

SHORT TERM: A LOW-END GALE IS EXPECTED LATER MONDAY. ANOTHER SCA
IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
BANGOR IS STILL ON TRACK FOR THE COLDEST FEBRUARY AND
ALL-TIME COLDEST MONTH ON RECORD. CARIBOU REMAINS ON PACE FOR THE
COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD...AND THE TOP 3 OR 4 ALL-TIME COLDEST
MONTHS ON RECORD.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CB/VJN
SHORT TERM...MCW
LONG TERM...MCW
AVIATION...CB/VJN/MCW
MARINE...CB/VJN/MCW
CLIMATE...VJN/CB




000
FXUS61 KCAR 271429
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
929 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA
LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN BEHIND THIS LOW MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
929 AM UPDATE...A BRIGHT AND SUNNY BUT COLD LATE WINTER DAY
ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN MAINE WITH TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON TO RUN
ABOUT 15 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMS. 925 MB TEMP ON THE 12Z KCAR
SOUNDING WAS -22C...WHICH WAS LITTLE CHANGED FROM YESTERDAY
MORNING. EXPECT HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON TO BE VERY CLOSE TO THE HIGH
TEMPS THURSDAY. THERE IS DECENT WIND SHOWING UP ABOVE THE FAIRLY
SHALLOW INVERSION THIS MORNING...SO EXPECT THE WIND TO PICK UP
LATE THIS MORNING TO 15 TO 20 MPH WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS AS THE
INVERSIONS BREAK AND THE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN. THE WIND
WILL ADD A BIT TO THE CHILL. THE ONGOING FORECAST HAS A GREAT
HANDLE ON THINGS...AND ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON THE 9 AM
OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE PICTURES.

ORGNL DISC: STRONG AND SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVR THE
MIDWEST WILL RIDGE ALL THE WAY INTO OUR FA TDY THRU SAT. THIS
SYSTEM WILL DISSIPATE ANY LEFT OVR CLDNSS OVR CNTRL AND DOWNEAST
AREAS THIS MORN BY AFTN.

OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL BE THE TRICKIEST PART OF THIS PTN OF THE
FCST...SINCE ENOUGH PRES GRAD...LLVL LAPSE RATES AND WINDS ALF
WILL BE PRESENT FOR FAIRLY BRISK CONDITIONS BOTH DAYS...BUT NOT
ENOUGH FOR LOW LYING...SPCLY BROAD RVR VLY AREAS TNGT...MEANING
WINDS WILL BECOME LGT AND VARIABLE TNGT OVR THESE AREAS...BUT
MAINTAINING A BREEZE ON HILLSIDES. EMPHASIS ON THIS FCST UPDATE
WAS PLACED ON TRRN DETAILS DRIVEN BY DAY/NIGHT AND VLY/HIER TRRN
WIND/WIND GUST REGIMES SET UP BY AN W TO E RIDGE AXIS PATTERN
ACROSS OUR REGION.

THE IMPACT ON FCST HIGH TEMPS TDY WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO THU`S
HI TEMPS...SINCE FCST AFTN 925 MB TEMPS TDY WILL BE SIMILAR TO
YSTDY. HIGH TEMPS SAT WILL BE ABOUT 5 TO 6 DEG WARMER THAN FRI
WITH FCST AFTN 925 MB TEMPS ABOUT 3 DEG C WARMER THAN FRI. LOW
TEMPS TNGT WILL SHOW EXTRA WIDE VARIATION BETWEEN COLDER LOW LYING
LCTNS AND HILLTOP LCTNS WHICH WILL REMAIN UP TO 10 TO 15 DEG F
WARMER DUE TO WIND SPEEDS OF 5 MPH OR MORE KEEPING THE BL TO
MIXED FOR ANY SFC INVSN TO FORM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE BIGGEST
QUESTION FOR SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE EXTENT OF NIGHTTIME
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND DECOUPLING VERSUS PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST
WINDS ON THE NORTH SIDE OF A 1040MB HIGH. AT THIS POINT...HAVE
LEANED TOWARDS A SOLUTION INDICATED BY THE BIAS-CORRECTED NAM WITH
THE COLDER TEMPERATURES IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
WHERE DECOUPLING AND A DEEPER INVERSION ARE MOST LIKELY. HIGHS ON
SUNDAY WILL REACH INTO THE 20S ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA
WITH SOME LOW 30S ON THE COAST. WHILE SATURDAY WILL FEATURE SUNNY
SKIES...HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH SUNDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING LOW.

SUNDAY NIGHT...A SHORTWAVE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM MOVING SOUTH
OUT OF THE DAKOTAS WILL ENERGIZE A BAROCLINIC ZONE IN THE OHIO
VALLEY. THE RESULTANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP IN THE GULF
OF MAINE MONDAY MORNING AND DEEPEN QUICKLY IN THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS LOW WILL BRING SNOW TO THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AND FOLLOW THE RECENT PATTERN OF
HIGHER TOTALS DOWN EAST AND VIRTUALLY NOTHING IN THE SAINT JOHN
VALLEY. HAVE SPECIFIED CATEGORICAL POPS ALONG THE DOWN EAST COAST
AND TAPERED TO SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE CROWN OF MAINE. THIS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE A FAST-MOVER AND WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
ADVISORY-LEVEL SNOWFALL IN THE DOWN EAST ZONES. ANOTHER SHOT OF
ARCTIC AIR SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA BEHIND THE LOW LATER MONDAY.
SINCE THE LOW DEEPENS SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...
EXPECT STRONG WINDS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY NIGHT. A WIND
CHILL ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD RAPIDLY TUESDAY WITH DECREASING WINDS.
THE HIGH WILL PROVIDE A SUNNY AND COLD DAY FOR TUESDAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER TEENS NORTH AND LOW-MID 20S FOR BANGOR AND DOWN EAST.
LOW TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY NIGHT WILL OCCUR BEFORE MIDNIGHT SINCE
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE MOVING
RAPIDLY OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION IN THE SOUTHWESTERN US.
THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO GENERATE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
OVERRUNNING SNOW LATER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH STRONG
WARM AIR ADVECTION. BEING A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM...IT WILL DRAW
SUFFICIENTLY WARMER AIR ALOFT TO CHANGE PRECIP TO DRIZZLE...FREEZING
RAIN AND SLEET LATER WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL
FALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW BEFORE THE WARMER AIR ARRIVES. SNOWFALL
WILL BE WET AND HEAVY COMPARED TO RECENT EVENTS AND WILL MOST
LIKELY BE ANOTHER ADVISORY EVENT WITH LOW SNOW-WATER RATIOS. HAVE
NOT ADDED FOG TO THE FORECAST FOR LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
MORNING...BUT IT WILL LIKELY OCCUR WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE WARMER
SURFACE AIR. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO THE WARMEST SINCE THE
LAST RAIN EVENT ON JAN 19. THE WARM AIR WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS AN
ARCTIC FRONT ARRIVES LATER THURSDAY WITH A RETURN TO THE DEEP
FREEZE. THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT A SECONDARY WAVE COULD DEVELOP
ON THE COLD FRONT AND AFFECT THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA ON
THURSDAY...BUT IT ONLY MERITS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS XPCTD ALL TAF SITES TDY THRU SAT.

SHORT TERM: VFR SAT NGT UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT. BECOMING IFR IN SNOW
LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY MVFR CIGS
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALL TERMINALS WILL BE VFR LATER
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WILL DROP THE FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY WITH THIS UPDATE.
STILL EXPECT LGT FZG SPY THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY WITH A
POSSIBILITY OF MORE MDT FZG SPY REQUIRING AN AN ADDITIONAL SPY ADV
LATE TNGT INTO SAT MORN. OTHERWISE...NO WIND/WV HDLNS NEEDED TDY
THRU SAT. KEPT CLOSE TO WW3 WV GUIDANCE WITH LATEST BUOY OBS NOT
SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF MARKED DEVIATION FROM THE GUIDANCE.

SHORT TERM: A LOW-END GALE IS EXPECTED LATER MONDAY. ANOTHER SCA
IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
BANGOR IS STILL ON TRACK FOR THE COLDEST FEBRUARY AND
ALL-TIME COLDEST MONTH ON RECORD. CARIBOU REMAINS ON PACE FOR THE
COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD...AND THE TOP 3 OR 4 ALL-TIME COLDEST
MONTHS ON RECORD.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CB/VJN
SHORT TERM...MCW
LONG TERM...MCW
AVIATION...CB/VJN/MCW
MARINE...CB/VJN/MCW
CLIMATE...VJN/CB




000
FXUS61 KCAR 271429
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
929 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA
LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN BEHIND THIS LOW MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
929 AM UPDATE...A BRIGHT AND SUNNY BUT COLD LATE WINTER DAY
ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN MAINE WITH TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON TO RUN
ABOUT 15 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMS. 925 MB TEMP ON THE 12Z KCAR
SOUNDING WAS -22C...WHICH WAS LITTLE CHANGED FROM YESTERDAY
MORNING. EXPECT HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON TO BE VERY CLOSE TO THE HIGH
TEMPS THURSDAY. THERE IS DECENT WIND SHOWING UP ABOVE THE FAIRLY
SHALLOW INVERSION THIS MORNING...SO EXPECT THE WIND TO PICK UP
LATE THIS MORNING TO 15 TO 20 MPH WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS AS THE
INVERSIONS BREAK AND THE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN. THE WIND
WILL ADD A BIT TO THE CHILL. THE ONGOING FORECAST HAS A GREAT
HANDLE ON THINGS...AND ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON THE 9 AM
OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE PICTURES.

ORGNL DISC: STRONG AND SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVR THE
MIDWEST WILL RIDGE ALL THE WAY INTO OUR FA TDY THRU SAT. THIS
SYSTEM WILL DISSIPATE ANY LEFT OVR CLDNSS OVR CNTRL AND DOWNEAST
AREAS THIS MORN BY AFTN.

OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL BE THE TRICKIEST PART OF THIS PTN OF THE
FCST...SINCE ENOUGH PRES GRAD...LLVL LAPSE RATES AND WINDS ALF
WILL BE PRESENT FOR FAIRLY BRISK CONDITIONS BOTH DAYS...BUT NOT
ENOUGH FOR LOW LYING...SPCLY BROAD RVR VLY AREAS TNGT...MEANING
WINDS WILL BECOME LGT AND VARIABLE TNGT OVR THESE AREAS...BUT
MAINTAINING A BREEZE ON HILLSIDES. EMPHASIS ON THIS FCST UPDATE
WAS PLACED ON TRRN DETAILS DRIVEN BY DAY/NIGHT AND VLY/HIER TRRN
WIND/WIND GUST REGIMES SET UP BY AN W TO E RIDGE AXIS PATTERN
ACROSS OUR REGION.

THE IMPACT ON FCST HIGH TEMPS TDY WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO THU`S
HI TEMPS...SINCE FCST AFTN 925 MB TEMPS TDY WILL BE SIMILAR TO
YSTDY. HIGH TEMPS SAT WILL BE ABOUT 5 TO 6 DEG WARMER THAN FRI
WITH FCST AFTN 925 MB TEMPS ABOUT 3 DEG C WARMER THAN FRI. LOW
TEMPS TNGT WILL SHOW EXTRA WIDE VARIATION BETWEEN COLDER LOW LYING
LCTNS AND HILLTOP LCTNS WHICH WILL REMAIN UP TO 10 TO 15 DEG F
WARMER DUE TO WIND SPEEDS OF 5 MPH OR MORE KEEPING THE BL TO
MIXED FOR ANY SFC INVSN TO FORM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE BIGGEST
QUESTION FOR SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE EXTENT OF NIGHTTIME
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND DECOUPLING VERSUS PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST
WINDS ON THE NORTH SIDE OF A 1040MB HIGH. AT THIS POINT...HAVE
LEANED TOWARDS A SOLUTION INDICATED BY THE BIAS-CORRECTED NAM WITH
THE COLDER TEMPERATURES IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
WHERE DECOUPLING AND A DEEPER INVERSION ARE MOST LIKELY. HIGHS ON
SUNDAY WILL REACH INTO THE 20S ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA
WITH SOME LOW 30S ON THE COAST. WHILE SATURDAY WILL FEATURE SUNNY
SKIES...HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH SUNDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING LOW.

SUNDAY NIGHT...A SHORTWAVE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM MOVING SOUTH
OUT OF THE DAKOTAS WILL ENERGIZE A BAROCLINIC ZONE IN THE OHIO
VALLEY. THE RESULTANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP IN THE GULF
OF MAINE MONDAY MORNING AND DEEPEN QUICKLY IN THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS LOW WILL BRING SNOW TO THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AND FOLLOW THE RECENT PATTERN OF
HIGHER TOTALS DOWN EAST AND VIRTUALLY NOTHING IN THE SAINT JOHN
VALLEY. HAVE SPECIFIED CATEGORICAL POPS ALONG THE DOWN EAST COAST
AND TAPERED TO SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE CROWN OF MAINE. THIS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE A FAST-MOVER AND WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
ADVISORY-LEVEL SNOWFALL IN THE DOWN EAST ZONES. ANOTHER SHOT OF
ARCTIC AIR SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA BEHIND THE LOW LATER MONDAY.
SINCE THE LOW DEEPENS SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...
EXPECT STRONG WINDS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY NIGHT. A WIND
CHILL ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD RAPIDLY TUESDAY WITH DECREASING WINDS.
THE HIGH WILL PROVIDE A SUNNY AND COLD DAY FOR TUESDAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER TEENS NORTH AND LOW-MID 20S FOR BANGOR AND DOWN EAST.
LOW TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY NIGHT WILL OCCUR BEFORE MIDNIGHT SINCE
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE MOVING
RAPIDLY OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION IN THE SOUTHWESTERN US.
THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO GENERATE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
OVERRUNNING SNOW LATER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH STRONG
WARM AIR ADVECTION. BEING A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM...IT WILL DRAW
SUFFICIENTLY WARMER AIR ALOFT TO CHANGE PRECIP TO DRIZZLE...FREEZING
RAIN AND SLEET LATER WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL
FALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW BEFORE THE WARMER AIR ARRIVES. SNOWFALL
WILL BE WET AND HEAVY COMPARED TO RECENT EVENTS AND WILL MOST
LIKELY BE ANOTHER ADVISORY EVENT WITH LOW SNOW-WATER RATIOS. HAVE
NOT ADDED FOG TO THE FORECAST FOR LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
MORNING...BUT IT WILL LIKELY OCCUR WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE WARMER
SURFACE AIR. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO THE WARMEST SINCE THE
LAST RAIN EVENT ON JAN 19. THE WARM AIR WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS AN
ARCTIC FRONT ARRIVES LATER THURSDAY WITH A RETURN TO THE DEEP
FREEZE. THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT A SECONDARY WAVE COULD DEVELOP
ON THE COLD FRONT AND AFFECT THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA ON
THURSDAY...BUT IT ONLY MERITS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS XPCTD ALL TAF SITES TDY THRU SAT.

SHORT TERM: VFR SAT NGT UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT. BECOMING IFR IN SNOW
LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY MVFR CIGS
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALL TERMINALS WILL BE VFR LATER
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WILL DROP THE FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY WITH THIS UPDATE.
STILL EXPECT LGT FZG SPY THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY WITH A
POSSIBILITY OF MORE MDT FZG SPY REQUIRING AN AN ADDITIONAL SPY ADV
LATE TNGT INTO SAT MORN. OTHERWISE...NO WIND/WV HDLNS NEEDED TDY
THRU SAT. KEPT CLOSE TO WW3 WV GUIDANCE WITH LATEST BUOY OBS NOT
SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF MARKED DEVIATION FROM THE GUIDANCE.

SHORT TERM: A LOW-END GALE IS EXPECTED LATER MONDAY. ANOTHER SCA
IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
BANGOR IS STILL ON TRACK FOR THE COLDEST FEBRUARY AND
ALL-TIME COLDEST MONTH ON RECORD. CARIBOU REMAINS ON PACE FOR THE
COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD...AND THE TOP 3 OR 4 ALL-TIME COLDEST
MONTHS ON RECORD.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CB/VJN
SHORT TERM...MCW
LONG TERM...MCW
AVIATION...CB/VJN/MCW
MARINE...CB/VJN/MCW
CLIMATE...VJN/CB




000
FXUS61 KCAR 271429
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
929 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA
LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN BEHIND THIS LOW MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
929 AM UPDATE...A BRIGHT AND SUNNY BUT COLD LATE WINTER DAY
ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN MAINE WITH TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON TO RUN
ABOUT 15 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMS. 925 MB TEMP ON THE 12Z KCAR
SOUNDING WAS -22C...WHICH WAS LITTLE CHANGED FROM YESTERDAY
MORNING. EXPECT HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON TO BE VERY CLOSE TO THE HIGH
TEMPS THURSDAY. THERE IS DECENT WIND SHOWING UP ABOVE THE FAIRLY
SHALLOW INVERSION THIS MORNING...SO EXPECT THE WIND TO PICK UP
LATE THIS MORNING TO 15 TO 20 MPH WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS AS THE
INVERSIONS BREAK AND THE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN. THE WIND
WILL ADD A BIT TO THE CHILL. THE ONGOING FORECAST HAS A GREAT
HANDLE ON THINGS...AND ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON THE 9 AM
OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE PICTURES.

ORGNL DISC: STRONG AND SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVR THE
MIDWEST WILL RIDGE ALL THE WAY INTO OUR FA TDY THRU SAT. THIS
SYSTEM WILL DISSIPATE ANY LEFT OVR CLDNSS OVR CNTRL AND DOWNEAST
AREAS THIS MORN BY AFTN.

OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL BE THE TRICKIEST PART OF THIS PTN OF THE
FCST...SINCE ENOUGH PRES GRAD...LLVL LAPSE RATES AND WINDS ALF
WILL BE PRESENT FOR FAIRLY BRISK CONDITIONS BOTH DAYS...BUT NOT
ENOUGH FOR LOW LYING...SPCLY BROAD RVR VLY AREAS TNGT...MEANING
WINDS WILL BECOME LGT AND VARIABLE TNGT OVR THESE AREAS...BUT
MAINTAINING A BREEZE ON HILLSIDES. EMPHASIS ON THIS FCST UPDATE
WAS PLACED ON TRRN DETAILS DRIVEN BY DAY/NIGHT AND VLY/HIER TRRN
WIND/WIND GUST REGIMES SET UP BY AN W TO E RIDGE AXIS PATTERN
ACROSS OUR REGION.

THE IMPACT ON FCST HIGH TEMPS TDY WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO THU`S
HI TEMPS...SINCE FCST AFTN 925 MB TEMPS TDY WILL BE SIMILAR TO
YSTDY. HIGH TEMPS SAT WILL BE ABOUT 5 TO 6 DEG WARMER THAN FRI
WITH FCST AFTN 925 MB TEMPS ABOUT 3 DEG C WARMER THAN FRI. LOW
TEMPS TNGT WILL SHOW EXTRA WIDE VARIATION BETWEEN COLDER LOW LYING
LCTNS AND HILLTOP LCTNS WHICH WILL REMAIN UP TO 10 TO 15 DEG F
WARMER DUE TO WIND SPEEDS OF 5 MPH OR MORE KEEPING THE BL TO
MIXED FOR ANY SFC INVSN TO FORM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE BIGGEST
QUESTION FOR SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE EXTENT OF NIGHTTIME
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND DECOUPLING VERSUS PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST
WINDS ON THE NORTH SIDE OF A 1040MB HIGH. AT THIS POINT...HAVE
LEANED TOWARDS A SOLUTION INDICATED BY THE BIAS-CORRECTED NAM WITH
THE COLDER TEMPERATURES IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
WHERE DECOUPLING AND A DEEPER INVERSION ARE MOST LIKELY. HIGHS ON
SUNDAY WILL REACH INTO THE 20S ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA
WITH SOME LOW 30S ON THE COAST. WHILE SATURDAY WILL FEATURE SUNNY
SKIES...HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH SUNDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING LOW.

SUNDAY NIGHT...A SHORTWAVE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM MOVING SOUTH
OUT OF THE DAKOTAS WILL ENERGIZE A BAROCLINIC ZONE IN THE OHIO
VALLEY. THE RESULTANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP IN THE GULF
OF MAINE MONDAY MORNING AND DEEPEN QUICKLY IN THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS LOW WILL BRING SNOW TO THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AND FOLLOW THE RECENT PATTERN OF
HIGHER TOTALS DOWN EAST AND VIRTUALLY NOTHING IN THE SAINT JOHN
VALLEY. HAVE SPECIFIED CATEGORICAL POPS ALONG THE DOWN EAST COAST
AND TAPERED TO SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE CROWN OF MAINE. THIS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE A FAST-MOVER AND WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
ADVISORY-LEVEL SNOWFALL IN THE DOWN EAST ZONES. ANOTHER SHOT OF
ARCTIC AIR SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA BEHIND THE LOW LATER MONDAY.
SINCE THE LOW DEEPENS SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...
EXPECT STRONG WINDS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY NIGHT. A WIND
CHILL ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD RAPIDLY TUESDAY WITH DECREASING WINDS.
THE HIGH WILL PROVIDE A SUNNY AND COLD DAY FOR TUESDAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER TEENS NORTH AND LOW-MID 20S FOR BANGOR AND DOWN EAST.
LOW TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY NIGHT WILL OCCUR BEFORE MIDNIGHT SINCE
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE MOVING
RAPIDLY OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION IN THE SOUTHWESTERN US.
THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO GENERATE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
OVERRUNNING SNOW LATER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH STRONG
WARM AIR ADVECTION. BEING A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM...IT WILL DRAW
SUFFICIENTLY WARMER AIR ALOFT TO CHANGE PRECIP TO DRIZZLE...FREEZING
RAIN AND SLEET LATER WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL
FALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW BEFORE THE WARMER AIR ARRIVES. SNOWFALL
WILL BE WET AND HEAVY COMPARED TO RECENT EVENTS AND WILL MOST
LIKELY BE ANOTHER ADVISORY EVENT WITH LOW SNOW-WATER RATIOS. HAVE
NOT ADDED FOG TO THE FORECAST FOR LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
MORNING...BUT IT WILL LIKELY OCCUR WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE WARMER
SURFACE AIR. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO THE WARMEST SINCE THE
LAST RAIN EVENT ON JAN 19. THE WARM AIR WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS AN
ARCTIC FRONT ARRIVES LATER THURSDAY WITH A RETURN TO THE DEEP
FREEZE. THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT A SECONDARY WAVE COULD DEVELOP
ON THE COLD FRONT AND AFFECT THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA ON
THURSDAY...BUT IT ONLY MERITS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS XPCTD ALL TAF SITES TDY THRU SAT.

SHORT TERM: VFR SAT NGT UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT. BECOMING IFR IN SNOW
LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY MVFR CIGS
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALL TERMINALS WILL BE VFR LATER
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WILL DROP THE FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY WITH THIS UPDATE.
STILL EXPECT LGT FZG SPY THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY WITH A
POSSIBILITY OF MORE MDT FZG SPY REQUIRING AN AN ADDITIONAL SPY ADV
LATE TNGT INTO SAT MORN. OTHERWISE...NO WIND/WV HDLNS NEEDED TDY
THRU SAT. KEPT CLOSE TO WW3 WV GUIDANCE WITH LATEST BUOY OBS NOT
SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF MARKED DEVIATION FROM THE GUIDANCE.

SHORT TERM: A LOW-END GALE IS EXPECTED LATER MONDAY. ANOTHER SCA
IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
BANGOR IS STILL ON TRACK FOR THE COLDEST FEBRUARY AND
ALL-TIME COLDEST MONTH ON RECORD. CARIBOU REMAINS ON PACE FOR THE
COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD...AND THE TOP 3 OR 4 ALL-TIME COLDEST
MONTHS ON RECORD.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CB/VJN
SHORT TERM...MCW
LONG TERM...MCW
AVIATION...CB/VJN/MCW
MARINE...CB/VJN/MCW
CLIMATE...VJN/CB



000
FXUS61 KCAR 271429
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
929 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA
LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN BEHIND THIS LOW MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
929 AM UPDATE...A BRIGHT AND SUNNY BUT COLD LATE WINTER DAY
ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN MAINE WITH TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON TO RUN
ABOUT 15 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMS. 925 MB TEMP ON THE 12Z KCAR
SOUNDING WAS -22C...WHICH WAS LITTLE CHANGED FROM YESTERDAY
MORNING. EXPECT HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON TO BE VERY CLOSE TO THE HIGH
TEMPS THURSDAY. THERE IS DECENT WIND SHOWING UP ABOVE THE FAIRLY
SHALLOW INVERSION THIS MORNING...SO EXPECT THE WIND TO PICK UP
LATE THIS MORNING TO 15 TO 20 MPH WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS AS THE
INVERSIONS BREAK AND THE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN. THE WIND
WILL ADD A BIT TO THE CHILL. THE ONGOING FORECAST HAS A GREAT
HANDLE ON THINGS...AND ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON THE 9 AM
OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE PICTURES.

ORGNL DISC: STRONG AND SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVR THE
MIDWEST WILL RIDGE ALL THE WAY INTO OUR FA TDY THRU SAT. THIS
SYSTEM WILL DISSIPATE ANY LEFT OVR CLDNSS OVR CNTRL AND DOWNEAST
AREAS THIS MORN BY AFTN.

OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL BE THE TRICKIEST PART OF THIS PTN OF THE
FCST...SINCE ENOUGH PRES GRAD...LLVL LAPSE RATES AND WINDS ALF
WILL BE PRESENT FOR FAIRLY BRISK CONDITIONS BOTH DAYS...BUT NOT
ENOUGH FOR LOW LYING...SPCLY BROAD RVR VLY AREAS TNGT...MEANING
WINDS WILL BECOME LGT AND VARIABLE TNGT OVR THESE AREAS...BUT
MAINTAINING A BREEZE ON HILLSIDES. EMPHASIS ON THIS FCST UPDATE
WAS PLACED ON TRRN DETAILS DRIVEN BY DAY/NIGHT AND VLY/HIER TRRN
WIND/WIND GUST REGIMES SET UP BY AN W TO E RIDGE AXIS PATTERN
ACROSS OUR REGION.

THE IMPACT ON FCST HIGH TEMPS TDY WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO THU`S
HI TEMPS...SINCE FCST AFTN 925 MB TEMPS TDY WILL BE SIMILAR TO
YSTDY. HIGH TEMPS SAT WILL BE ABOUT 5 TO 6 DEG WARMER THAN FRI
WITH FCST AFTN 925 MB TEMPS ABOUT 3 DEG C WARMER THAN FRI. LOW
TEMPS TNGT WILL SHOW EXTRA WIDE VARIATION BETWEEN COLDER LOW LYING
LCTNS AND HILLTOP LCTNS WHICH WILL REMAIN UP TO 10 TO 15 DEG F
WARMER DUE TO WIND SPEEDS OF 5 MPH OR MORE KEEPING THE BL TO
MIXED FOR ANY SFC INVSN TO FORM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE BIGGEST
QUESTION FOR SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE EXTENT OF NIGHTTIME
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND DECOUPLING VERSUS PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST
WINDS ON THE NORTH SIDE OF A 1040MB HIGH. AT THIS POINT...HAVE
LEANED TOWARDS A SOLUTION INDICATED BY THE BIAS-CORRECTED NAM WITH
THE COLDER TEMPERATURES IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
WHERE DECOUPLING AND A DEEPER INVERSION ARE MOST LIKELY. HIGHS ON
SUNDAY WILL REACH INTO THE 20S ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA
WITH SOME LOW 30S ON THE COAST. WHILE SATURDAY WILL FEATURE SUNNY
SKIES...HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH SUNDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING LOW.

SUNDAY NIGHT...A SHORTWAVE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM MOVING SOUTH
OUT OF THE DAKOTAS WILL ENERGIZE A BAROCLINIC ZONE IN THE OHIO
VALLEY. THE RESULTANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP IN THE GULF
OF MAINE MONDAY MORNING AND DEEPEN QUICKLY IN THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS LOW WILL BRING SNOW TO THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AND FOLLOW THE RECENT PATTERN OF
HIGHER TOTALS DOWN EAST AND VIRTUALLY NOTHING IN THE SAINT JOHN
VALLEY. HAVE SPECIFIED CATEGORICAL POPS ALONG THE DOWN EAST COAST
AND TAPERED TO SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE CROWN OF MAINE. THIS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE A FAST-MOVER AND WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
ADVISORY-LEVEL SNOWFALL IN THE DOWN EAST ZONES. ANOTHER SHOT OF
ARCTIC AIR SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA BEHIND THE LOW LATER MONDAY.
SINCE THE LOW DEEPENS SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...
EXPECT STRONG WINDS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY NIGHT. A WIND
CHILL ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD RAPIDLY TUESDAY WITH DECREASING WINDS.
THE HIGH WILL PROVIDE A SUNNY AND COLD DAY FOR TUESDAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER TEENS NORTH AND LOW-MID 20S FOR BANGOR AND DOWN EAST.
LOW TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY NIGHT WILL OCCUR BEFORE MIDNIGHT SINCE
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE MOVING
RAPIDLY OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION IN THE SOUTHWESTERN US.
THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO GENERATE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
OVERRUNNING SNOW LATER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH STRONG
WARM AIR ADVECTION. BEING A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM...IT WILL DRAW
SUFFICIENTLY WARMER AIR ALOFT TO CHANGE PRECIP TO DRIZZLE...FREEZING
RAIN AND SLEET LATER WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL
FALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW BEFORE THE WARMER AIR ARRIVES. SNOWFALL
WILL BE WET AND HEAVY COMPARED TO RECENT EVENTS AND WILL MOST
LIKELY BE ANOTHER ADVISORY EVENT WITH LOW SNOW-WATER RATIOS. HAVE
NOT ADDED FOG TO THE FORECAST FOR LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
MORNING...BUT IT WILL LIKELY OCCUR WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE WARMER
SURFACE AIR. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO THE WARMEST SINCE THE
LAST RAIN EVENT ON JAN 19. THE WARM AIR WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS AN
ARCTIC FRONT ARRIVES LATER THURSDAY WITH A RETURN TO THE DEEP
FREEZE. THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT A SECONDARY WAVE COULD DEVELOP
ON THE COLD FRONT AND AFFECT THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA ON
THURSDAY...BUT IT ONLY MERITS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS XPCTD ALL TAF SITES TDY THRU SAT.

SHORT TERM: VFR SAT NGT UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT. BECOMING IFR IN SNOW
LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY MVFR CIGS
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALL TERMINALS WILL BE VFR LATER
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WILL DROP THE FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY WITH THIS UPDATE.
STILL EXPECT LGT FZG SPY THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY WITH A
POSSIBILITY OF MORE MDT FZG SPY REQUIRING AN AN ADDITIONAL SPY ADV
LATE TNGT INTO SAT MORN. OTHERWISE...NO WIND/WV HDLNS NEEDED TDY
THRU SAT. KEPT CLOSE TO WW3 WV GUIDANCE WITH LATEST BUOY OBS NOT
SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF MARKED DEVIATION FROM THE GUIDANCE.

SHORT TERM: A LOW-END GALE IS EXPECTED LATER MONDAY. ANOTHER SCA
IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
BANGOR IS STILL ON TRACK FOR THE COLDEST FEBRUARY AND
ALL-TIME COLDEST MONTH ON RECORD. CARIBOU REMAINS ON PACE FOR THE
COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD...AND THE TOP 3 OR 4 ALL-TIME COLDEST
MONTHS ON RECORD.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CB/VJN
SHORT TERM...MCW
LONG TERM...MCW
AVIATION...CB/VJN/MCW
MARINE...CB/VJN/MCW
CLIMATE...VJN/CB




000
FXUS61 KGYX 271421 AAA
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
921 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY
AND WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY. A WEAK
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND
WILL QUICKLY SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST MONDAY NIGHT AND WILL CREST OVER THE
REGION ON TUESDAY BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST OUT OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT AND WILL
PASS NORTHWEST OF THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...ONLY A FEW MINOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR
CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST
TODAY WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR CLOUD COVER THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. DESPITE AFTERNOON SUN...HIGH TEMPS WILL ONLY
RANGE THROUGH THE TEENS NORTH TO LOWER 20S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
PLUMMET TONIGHT. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM 10 TO 20 BELOW NORTH TO 5
ABOVE TO 10 BELOW SOUTH.

SATURDAY WILL FEATURE SCATTERED CLOUDS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND PLENTY
OF SUNSHINE ELSEWHERE. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SLIGHTLY BUT
WILL STILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS IN THE NORTH WILL BE IN
THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S AND LOWER TO MID 20S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS SUGGESTING JUST SOME SUBTLE CHANGES TO 500 MB PATTERN IN
THE EXTENDED FORECAST. NOTHING THAT WILL CHANGE THE OVERALL +PNA
PATTERN...BUT ENOUGH THAT WILL BRING A STORM TRACK TO OUR WEST AND
PUSH SOME WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK.

500MB ZONAL FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN BEFORE A WEAK
WAVE APPROACHES SUN NIGHT...AND THEN DIGS TO OUR NE ON MONDAY. SAT
NIGHT WILL BE CLEAR AND COLD WITH LOWS SINGLE BLO ZERO TO THE
NORTH...AND SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO ELSEWHERE. SUNDAY WILL START
OFF WITH SUN...BUT CLOUDS BEGIN TO MOVE IN DURING THE AFTERNOON AS
THE SYSTEM APPROACHES. LOOKS LIKE ANY SNOW WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL SUN
EVENING. NOT EXPECTING TOO MUCH IN THE WAY OF QPF...QUARTER OF AN
INCH OR LESS GENERALLY...AS THE SFC LOW DOES NOT INTENSIFY UNTIL
IT REACHES THE MARITIMES ON MONDAY MORNING. SO A COUPLE OF INCHES
OF SNOW POSSIBLE SUNDAY...WITH CLEARING ON MONDAY IN W-NW FLOW.
THE DOWNSLOPE SHOULD ALLOW THINGS TO WARM AGAIN INTO THE UPPER 20S
TO MID 30S...WHICH IS CLOSE TO NORMAL.

HIGH PRES THEN BUILDS IN LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS A DECENT
RIDGE BUILDS ALOFT. ALTHOUGH MID-HIGH CLOUDS SPILLING IN ON TUE
WILL KEEP TEMPS A LITTLE COOLER THAN MON. ANOTHER 500 TROUGH
APPROACHES BY TUE NIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE MOST ENERGETIC PART OF IT
STAYS NW OF NEW ENGLAND. THE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT MAIN SFC
LOW STAYS TO THE W AS WELL...BUT DIFFER SOMEWHAT ON TIMING...AND
WHETHER THERE IS THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANOTHER LOW ON THE COAST. ANY
PRECIP WILL PROB START AS SNOW BUT WITH TRACK TO THE WEST...WILL
GET SOME WARM IN ALOFT AT LEAST...AND COULD SEE SOME FZRA OR RA IN
THE MIX. AT THIS POINT...THIS DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A MAJOR
SYSTEM...BUT STILL BEYOND DAY 5...AND THIS WINTER THE MODELS CAN
CHANGE A LOT IN THAT TIMEFRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

LONG TERM...VFR SAT NIGHT AND SUN...THEN A PERIOD OF IFR IN SN SUN
NIGHT...IMPROVING TO VFR AGAIN ON MON AND TUE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...HAVE DROPPED THE FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY...WITH TEMPS
WARMING...AND WINDS/SEAS DIMINISHING. VERY COLD TEMPS LATE TONIGHT
MAY REQUIRE AT LEAST A COUPLE MARINE ZONES NEEDING ANOTHER
FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY AT SOME POINT.

LONG TERM...SCA LKLY ON MONDAY IN NW FLOW AND POSSIBLE FZ SPRAY
MON NIGHT.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LEGRO




000
FXUS61 KGYX 271421 AAA
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
921 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY
AND WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY. A WEAK
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND
WILL QUICKLY SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST MONDAY NIGHT AND WILL CREST OVER THE
REGION ON TUESDAY BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST OUT OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT AND WILL
PASS NORTHWEST OF THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...ONLY A FEW MINOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR
CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST
TODAY WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR CLOUD COVER THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. DESPITE AFTERNOON SUN...HIGH TEMPS WILL ONLY
RANGE THROUGH THE TEENS NORTH TO LOWER 20S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
PLUMMET TONIGHT. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM 10 TO 20 BELOW NORTH TO 5
ABOVE TO 10 BELOW SOUTH.

SATURDAY WILL FEATURE SCATTERED CLOUDS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND PLENTY
OF SUNSHINE ELSEWHERE. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SLIGHTLY BUT
WILL STILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS IN THE NORTH WILL BE IN
THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S AND LOWER TO MID 20S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS SUGGESTING JUST SOME SUBTLE CHANGES TO 500 MB PATTERN IN
THE EXTENDED FORECAST. NOTHING THAT WILL CHANGE THE OVERALL +PNA
PATTERN...BUT ENOUGH THAT WILL BRING A STORM TRACK TO OUR WEST AND
PUSH SOME WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK.

500MB ZONAL FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN BEFORE A WEAK
WAVE APPROACHES SUN NIGHT...AND THEN DIGS TO OUR NE ON MONDAY. SAT
NIGHT WILL BE CLEAR AND COLD WITH LOWS SINGLE BLO ZERO TO THE
NORTH...AND SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO ELSEWHERE. SUNDAY WILL START
OFF WITH SUN...BUT CLOUDS BEGIN TO MOVE IN DURING THE AFTERNOON AS
THE SYSTEM APPROACHES. LOOKS LIKE ANY SNOW WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL SUN
EVENING. NOT EXPECTING TOO MUCH IN THE WAY OF QPF...QUARTER OF AN
INCH OR LESS GENERALLY...AS THE SFC LOW DOES NOT INTENSIFY UNTIL
IT REACHES THE MARITIMES ON MONDAY MORNING. SO A COUPLE OF INCHES
OF SNOW POSSIBLE SUNDAY...WITH CLEARING ON MONDAY IN W-NW FLOW.
THE DOWNSLOPE SHOULD ALLOW THINGS TO WARM AGAIN INTO THE UPPER 20S
TO MID 30S...WHICH IS CLOSE TO NORMAL.

HIGH PRES THEN BUILDS IN LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS A DECENT
RIDGE BUILDS ALOFT. ALTHOUGH MID-HIGH CLOUDS SPILLING IN ON TUE
WILL KEEP TEMPS A LITTLE COOLER THAN MON. ANOTHER 500 TROUGH
APPROACHES BY TUE NIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE MOST ENERGETIC PART OF IT
STAYS NW OF NEW ENGLAND. THE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT MAIN SFC
LOW STAYS TO THE W AS WELL...BUT DIFFER SOMEWHAT ON TIMING...AND
WHETHER THERE IS THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANOTHER LOW ON THE COAST. ANY
PRECIP WILL PROB START AS SNOW BUT WITH TRACK TO THE WEST...WILL
GET SOME WARM IN ALOFT AT LEAST...AND COULD SEE SOME FZRA OR RA IN
THE MIX. AT THIS POINT...THIS DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A MAJOR
SYSTEM...BUT STILL BEYOND DAY 5...AND THIS WINTER THE MODELS CAN
CHANGE A LOT IN THAT TIMEFRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

LONG TERM...VFR SAT NIGHT AND SUN...THEN A PERIOD OF IFR IN SN SUN
NIGHT...IMPROVING TO VFR AGAIN ON MON AND TUE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...HAVE DROPPED THE FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY...WITH TEMPS
WARMING...AND WINDS/SEAS DIMINISHING. VERY COLD TEMPS LATE TONIGHT
MAY REQUIRE AT LEAST A COUPLE MARINE ZONES NEEDING ANOTHER
FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY AT SOME POINT.

LONG TERM...SCA LKLY ON MONDAY IN NW FLOW AND POSSIBLE FZ SPRAY
MON NIGHT.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LEGRO



000
FXUS61 KGYX 271421 AAA
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
921 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY
AND WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY. A WEAK
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND
WILL QUICKLY SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST MONDAY NIGHT AND WILL CREST OVER THE
REGION ON TUESDAY BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST OUT OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT AND WILL
PASS NORTHWEST OF THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...ONLY A FEW MINOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR
CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST
TODAY WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR CLOUD COVER THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. DESPITE AFTERNOON SUN...HIGH TEMPS WILL ONLY
RANGE THROUGH THE TEENS NORTH TO LOWER 20S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
PLUMMET TONIGHT. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM 10 TO 20 BELOW NORTH TO 5
ABOVE TO 10 BELOW SOUTH.

SATURDAY WILL FEATURE SCATTERED CLOUDS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND PLENTY
OF SUNSHINE ELSEWHERE. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SLIGHTLY BUT
WILL STILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS IN THE NORTH WILL BE IN
THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S AND LOWER TO MID 20S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS SUGGESTING JUST SOME SUBTLE CHANGES TO 500 MB PATTERN IN
THE EXTENDED FORECAST. NOTHING THAT WILL CHANGE THE OVERALL +PNA
PATTERN...BUT ENOUGH THAT WILL BRING A STORM TRACK TO OUR WEST AND
PUSH SOME WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK.

500MB ZONAL FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN BEFORE A WEAK
WAVE APPROACHES SUN NIGHT...AND THEN DIGS TO OUR NE ON MONDAY. SAT
NIGHT WILL BE CLEAR AND COLD WITH LOWS SINGLE BLO ZERO TO THE
NORTH...AND SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO ELSEWHERE. SUNDAY WILL START
OFF WITH SUN...BUT CLOUDS BEGIN TO MOVE IN DURING THE AFTERNOON AS
THE SYSTEM APPROACHES. LOOKS LIKE ANY SNOW WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL SUN
EVENING. NOT EXPECTING TOO MUCH IN THE WAY OF QPF...QUARTER OF AN
INCH OR LESS GENERALLY...AS THE SFC LOW DOES NOT INTENSIFY UNTIL
IT REACHES THE MARITIMES ON MONDAY MORNING. SO A COUPLE OF INCHES
OF SNOW POSSIBLE SUNDAY...WITH CLEARING ON MONDAY IN W-NW FLOW.
THE DOWNSLOPE SHOULD ALLOW THINGS TO WARM AGAIN INTO THE UPPER 20S
TO MID 30S...WHICH IS CLOSE TO NORMAL.

HIGH PRES THEN BUILDS IN LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS A DECENT
RIDGE BUILDS ALOFT. ALTHOUGH MID-HIGH CLOUDS SPILLING IN ON TUE
WILL KEEP TEMPS A LITTLE COOLER THAN MON. ANOTHER 500 TROUGH
APPROACHES BY TUE NIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE MOST ENERGETIC PART OF IT
STAYS NW OF NEW ENGLAND. THE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT MAIN SFC
LOW STAYS TO THE W AS WELL...BUT DIFFER SOMEWHAT ON TIMING...AND
WHETHER THERE IS THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANOTHER LOW ON THE COAST. ANY
PRECIP WILL PROB START AS SNOW BUT WITH TRACK TO THE WEST...WILL
GET SOME WARM IN ALOFT AT LEAST...AND COULD SEE SOME FZRA OR RA IN
THE MIX. AT THIS POINT...THIS DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A MAJOR
SYSTEM...BUT STILL BEYOND DAY 5...AND THIS WINTER THE MODELS CAN
CHANGE A LOT IN THAT TIMEFRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

LONG TERM...VFR SAT NIGHT AND SUN...THEN A PERIOD OF IFR IN SN SUN
NIGHT...IMPROVING TO VFR AGAIN ON MON AND TUE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...HAVE DROPPED THE FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY...WITH TEMPS
WARMING...AND WINDS/SEAS DIMINISHING. VERY COLD TEMPS LATE TONIGHT
MAY REQUIRE AT LEAST A COUPLE MARINE ZONES NEEDING ANOTHER
FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY AT SOME POINT.

LONG TERM...SCA LKLY ON MONDAY IN NW FLOW AND POSSIBLE FZ SPRAY
MON NIGHT.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LEGRO




000
FXUS61 KGYX 271421 AAA
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
921 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY
AND WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY. A WEAK
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND
WILL QUICKLY SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST MONDAY NIGHT AND WILL CREST OVER THE
REGION ON TUESDAY BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST OUT OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT AND WILL
PASS NORTHWEST OF THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...ONLY A FEW MINOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR
CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST
TODAY WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR CLOUD COVER THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. DESPITE AFTERNOON SUN...HIGH TEMPS WILL ONLY
RANGE THROUGH THE TEENS NORTH TO LOWER 20S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
PLUMMET TONIGHT. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM 10 TO 20 BELOW NORTH TO 5
ABOVE TO 10 BELOW SOUTH.

SATURDAY WILL FEATURE SCATTERED CLOUDS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND PLENTY
OF SUNSHINE ELSEWHERE. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SLIGHTLY BUT
WILL STILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS IN THE NORTH WILL BE IN
THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S AND LOWER TO MID 20S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS SUGGESTING JUST SOME SUBTLE CHANGES TO 500 MB PATTERN IN
THE EXTENDED FORECAST. NOTHING THAT WILL CHANGE THE OVERALL +PNA
PATTERN...BUT ENOUGH THAT WILL BRING A STORM TRACK TO OUR WEST AND
PUSH SOME WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK.

500MB ZONAL FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN BEFORE A WEAK
WAVE APPROACHES SUN NIGHT...AND THEN DIGS TO OUR NE ON MONDAY. SAT
NIGHT WILL BE CLEAR AND COLD WITH LOWS SINGLE BLO ZERO TO THE
NORTH...AND SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO ELSEWHERE. SUNDAY WILL START
OFF WITH SUN...BUT CLOUDS BEGIN TO MOVE IN DURING THE AFTERNOON AS
THE SYSTEM APPROACHES. LOOKS LIKE ANY SNOW WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL SUN
EVENING. NOT EXPECTING TOO MUCH IN THE WAY OF QPF...QUARTER OF AN
INCH OR LESS GENERALLY...AS THE SFC LOW DOES NOT INTENSIFY UNTIL
IT REACHES THE MARITIMES ON MONDAY MORNING. SO A COUPLE OF INCHES
OF SNOW POSSIBLE SUNDAY...WITH CLEARING ON MONDAY IN W-NW FLOW.
THE DOWNSLOPE SHOULD ALLOW THINGS TO WARM AGAIN INTO THE UPPER 20S
TO MID 30S...WHICH IS CLOSE TO NORMAL.

HIGH PRES THEN BUILDS IN LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS A DECENT
RIDGE BUILDS ALOFT. ALTHOUGH MID-HIGH CLOUDS SPILLING IN ON TUE
WILL KEEP TEMPS A LITTLE COOLER THAN MON. ANOTHER 500 TROUGH
APPROACHES BY TUE NIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE MOST ENERGETIC PART OF IT
STAYS NW OF NEW ENGLAND. THE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT MAIN SFC
LOW STAYS TO THE W AS WELL...BUT DIFFER SOMEWHAT ON TIMING...AND
WHETHER THERE IS THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANOTHER LOW ON THE COAST. ANY
PRECIP WILL PROB START AS SNOW BUT WITH TRACK TO THE WEST...WILL
GET SOME WARM IN ALOFT AT LEAST...AND COULD SEE SOME FZRA OR RA IN
THE MIX. AT THIS POINT...THIS DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A MAJOR
SYSTEM...BUT STILL BEYOND DAY 5...AND THIS WINTER THE MODELS CAN
CHANGE A LOT IN THAT TIMEFRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

LONG TERM...VFR SAT NIGHT AND SUN...THEN A PERIOD OF IFR IN SN SUN
NIGHT...IMPROVING TO VFR AGAIN ON MON AND TUE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...HAVE DROPPED THE FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY...WITH TEMPS
WARMING...AND WINDS/SEAS DIMINISHING. VERY COLD TEMPS LATE TONIGHT
MAY REQUIRE AT LEAST A COUPLE MARINE ZONES NEEDING ANOTHER
FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY AT SOME POINT.

LONG TERM...SCA LKLY ON MONDAY IN NW FLOW AND POSSIBLE FZ SPRAY
MON NIGHT.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LEGRO



000
FXUS61 KCAR 271123
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
623 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA
LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN BEHIND THIS LOW MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
620 AM UPDATE: VISUAL OBS AND SAT IMAGERY SHOWS THAT CLRG HAS
ADVCD FASTER ACROSS CNTRL AND DOWNEAST ME ERLY THIS MORN THAN PREV
THOUGHT...SO WE REDUCED CLD CVR OVR THESE PTNS OF THE FA THIS
MORN.

OTHERWISE...WE INCLUDE LATEST HRLY 5-6 AM OBSVD TEMPS AND UPDATE
ERLY MORN LOWS WITH TEMPS AT LCTNS EXCEEDING PRIOR LOW TEMPS WITH
THESE LATEST OBS...MOSTLY OVR FAR NW ME... WHERE CLRG SKIES HAS
RESULTED IN AN DEEPER ARCTIC SFC BASE INVSN. WE THEN MODIFIED FCST
HRLY TEMPS INTO THIS AFTN TO UNCHGD FCST HI TEMPS FROM LAST
UPDATE.

ORGNL DISC: STRONG AND SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVR THE
MIDWEST WILL RIDGE ALL THE WAY INTO OUR FA TDY THRU SAT. THIS
SYSTEM WILL DISSIPATE ANY LEFT OVR CLDNSS OVR CNTRL AND DOWNEAST
AREAS THIS MORN BY AFTN.

OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL BE THE TRICKIEST PART OF THIS PTN OF THE
FCST...SINCE ENOUGH PRES GRAD...LLVL LAPSE RATES AND WINDS ALF
WILL BE PRESENT FOR FAIRLY BRISK CONDITIONS BOTH DAYS...BUT NOT
ENOUGH FOR LOW LYING...SPCLY BROAD RVR VLY AREAS TNGT...MEANING
WINDS WILL BECOME LGT AND VARIABLE TNGT OVR THESE AREAS...BUT
MAINTAINING A BREEZE ON HILLSIDES. EMPHASIS ON THIS FCST UPDATE
WAS PLACED ON TRRN DETAILS DRIVEN BY DAY/NIGHT AND VLY/HIER TRRN
WIND/WIND GUST REGIMES SET UP BY AN W TO E RIDGE AXIS PATTERN
ACROSS OUR REGION.

THE IMPACT ON FCST HIGH TEMPS TDY WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO THU`S
HI TEMPS...SINCE FCST AFTN 925 MB TEMPS TDY WILL BE SIMILAR TO
YSTDY. HIGH TEMPS SAT WILL BE ABOUT 5 TO 6 DEG WARMER THAN FRI
WITH FCST AFTN 925 MB TEMPS ABOUT 3 DEG C WARMER THAN FRI. LOW
TEMPS TNGT WILL SHOW EXTRA WIDE VARIATION BETWEEN COLDER LOW LYING
LCTNS AND HILLTOP LCTNS WHICH WILL REMAIN UP TO 10 TO 15 DEG F
WARMER DUE TO WIND SPEEDS OF 5 MPH OR MORE KEEPING THE BL TO
MIXED FOR ANY SFC INVSN TO FORM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE BIGGEST
QUESTION FOR SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE EXTENT OF NIGHTTIME
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND DECOUPLING VERSUS PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST
WINDS ON THE NORTH SIDE OF A 1040MB HIGH. AT THIS POINT...HAVE
LEANED TOWARDS A SOLUTION INDICATED BY THE BIAS-CORRECTED NAM WITH
THE COLDER TEMPERATURES IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
WHERE DECOUPLING AND A DEEPER INVERSION ARE MOST LIKELY. HIGHS ON
SUNDAY WILL REACH INTO THE 20S ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA
WITH SOME LOW 30S ON THE COAST. WHILE SATURDAY WILL FEATURE SUNNY
SKIES...HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH SUNDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING LOW.

SUNDAY NIGHT...A SHORTWAVE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM MOVING SOUTH
OUT OF THE DAKOTAS WILL ENERGIZE A BAROCLINIC ZONE IN THE OHIO
VALLEY. THE RESULTANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP IN THE GULF
OF MAINE MONDAY MORNING AND DEEPEN QUICKLY IN THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS LOW WILL BRING SNOW TO THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AND FOLLOW THE RECENT PATTERN OF
HIGHER TOTALS DOWN EAST AND VIRTUALLY NOTHING IN THE SAINT JOHN
VALLEY. HAVE SPECIFIED CATEGORICAL POPS ALONG THE DOWN EAST COAST
AND TAPERED TO SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE CROWN OF MAINE. THIS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE A FAST-MOVER AND WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
ADVISORY-LEVEL SNOWFALL IN THE DOWN EAST ZONES. ANOTHER SHOT OF
ARCTIC AIR SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA BEHIND THE LOW LATER MONDAY.
SINCE THE LOW DEEPENS SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...
EXPECT STRONG WINDS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY NIGHT. A WIND
CHILL ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD RAPIDLY TUESDAY WITH DECREASING WINDS.
THE HIGH WILL PROVIDE A SUNNY AND COLD DAY FOR TUESDAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER TEENS NORTH AND LOW-MID 20S FOR BANGOR AND DOWN EAST.
LOW TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY NIGHT WILL OCCUR BEFORE MIDNIGHT SINCE
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE MOVING
RAPIDLY OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION IN THE SOUTHWESTERN US.
THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO GENERATE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
OVERRUNNING SNOW LATER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH STRONG
WARM AIR ADVECTION. BEING A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM...IT WILL DRAW
SUFFICIENTLY WARMER AIR ALOFT TO CHANGE PRECIP TO DRIZZLE...FREEZING
RAIN AND SLEET LATER WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL
FALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW BEFORE THE WARMER AIR ARRIVES. SNOWFALL
WILL BE WET AND HEAVY COMPARED TO RECENT EVENTS AND WILL MOST
LIKELY BE ANOTHER ADVISORY EVENT WITH LOW SNOW-WATER RATIOS. HAVE
NOT ADDED FOG TO THE FORECAST FOR LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
MORNING...BUT IT WILL LIKELY OCCUR WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE WARMER
SURFACE AIR. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO THE WARMEST SINCE THE
LAST RAIN EVENT ON JAN 19. THE WARM AIR WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS AN
ARCTIC FRONT ARRIVES LATER THURSDAY WITH A RETURN TO THE DEEP
FREEZE. THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT A SECONDARY WAVE COULD DEVELOP
ON THE COLD FRONT AND AFFECT THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA ON
THURSDAY...BUT IT ONLY MERITS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS XPCTD ALL TAF SITES TDY THRU SAT.

SHORT TERM: VFR SAT NGT UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT. BECOMING IFR IN SNOW
LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY MVFR CIGS
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALL TERMINALS WILL BE VFR LATER
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: MDT FZG SPY REQUIRING A FZG SPY ADV STILL XPCTD INTO
MID MORN. AFTWRDS...LGT FZG SPY XPCTD WITH A POSSIBILITY OF MORE
MDT FZG SPY REQUIRING AN AN ADDITIONAL SPY ADV LATE TNGT INTO SAT
MORN. OTHERWISE...NO WIND/WV HDLNS NEEDED TDY THRU SAT. KEPT
CLOSE TO WW3 WV GUIDANCE WITH LATEST BUOY OBS NOT SHOWING MUCH IN
THE WAY OF MARKED DEVIATION FROM THE GUIDANCE.

SHORT TERM: A LOW-END GALE IS EXPECTED LATER MONDAY. ANOTHER SCA
IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
BANGOR IS STILL ON TRACK FOR THE COLDEST FEBRUARY AND
ALL-TIME COLDEST MONTH ON RECORD. CARIBOU REMAINS ON PACE FOR THE
COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD...AND THE TOP 3 OR 4 ALL-TIME COLDEST
MONTHS ON RECORD.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...MCW
LONG TERM...MCW
AVIATION...VJN/MCW
MARINE...VJN/MCW
CLIMATE...VJN



000
FXUS61 KCAR 271123
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
623 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA
LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN BEHIND THIS LOW MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
620 AM UPDATE: VISUAL OBS AND SAT IMAGERY SHOWS THAT CLRG HAS
ADVCD FASTER ACROSS CNTRL AND DOWNEAST ME ERLY THIS MORN THAN PREV
THOUGHT...SO WE REDUCED CLD CVR OVR THESE PTNS OF THE FA THIS
MORN.

OTHERWISE...WE INCLUDE LATEST HRLY 5-6 AM OBSVD TEMPS AND UPDATE
ERLY MORN LOWS WITH TEMPS AT LCTNS EXCEEDING PRIOR LOW TEMPS WITH
THESE LATEST OBS...MOSTLY OVR FAR NW ME... WHERE CLRG SKIES HAS
RESULTED IN AN DEEPER ARCTIC SFC BASE INVSN. WE THEN MODIFIED FCST
HRLY TEMPS INTO THIS AFTN TO UNCHGD FCST HI TEMPS FROM LAST
UPDATE.

ORGNL DISC: STRONG AND SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVR THE
MIDWEST WILL RIDGE ALL THE WAY INTO OUR FA TDY THRU SAT. THIS
SYSTEM WILL DISSIPATE ANY LEFT OVR CLDNSS OVR CNTRL AND DOWNEAST
AREAS THIS MORN BY AFTN.

OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL BE THE TRICKIEST PART OF THIS PTN OF THE
FCST...SINCE ENOUGH PRES GRAD...LLVL LAPSE RATES AND WINDS ALF
WILL BE PRESENT FOR FAIRLY BRISK CONDITIONS BOTH DAYS...BUT NOT
ENOUGH FOR LOW LYING...SPCLY BROAD RVR VLY AREAS TNGT...MEANING
WINDS WILL BECOME LGT AND VARIABLE TNGT OVR THESE AREAS...BUT
MAINTAINING A BREEZE ON HILLSIDES. EMPHASIS ON THIS FCST UPDATE
WAS PLACED ON TRRN DETAILS DRIVEN BY DAY/NIGHT AND VLY/HIER TRRN
WIND/WIND GUST REGIMES SET UP BY AN W TO E RIDGE AXIS PATTERN
ACROSS OUR REGION.

THE IMPACT ON FCST HIGH TEMPS TDY WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO THU`S
HI TEMPS...SINCE FCST AFTN 925 MB TEMPS TDY WILL BE SIMILAR TO
YSTDY. HIGH TEMPS SAT WILL BE ABOUT 5 TO 6 DEG WARMER THAN FRI
WITH FCST AFTN 925 MB TEMPS ABOUT 3 DEG C WARMER THAN FRI. LOW
TEMPS TNGT WILL SHOW EXTRA WIDE VARIATION BETWEEN COLDER LOW LYING
LCTNS AND HILLTOP LCTNS WHICH WILL REMAIN UP TO 10 TO 15 DEG F
WARMER DUE TO WIND SPEEDS OF 5 MPH OR MORE KEEPING THE BL TO
MIXED FOR ANY SFC INVSN TO FORM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE BIGGEST
QUESTION FOR SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE EXTENT OF NIGHTTIME
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND DECOUPLING VERSUS PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST
WINDS ON THE NORTH SIDE OF A 1040MB HIGH. AT THIS POINT...HAVE
LEANED TOWARDS A SOLUTION INDICATED BY THE BIAS-CORRECTED NAM WITH
THE COLDER TEMPERATURES IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
WHERE DECOUPLING AND A DEEPER INVERSION ARE MOST LIKELY. HIGHS ON
SUNDAY WILL REACH INTO THE 20S ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA
WITH SOME LOW 30S ON THE COAST. WHILE SATURDAY WILL FEATURE SUNNY
SKIES...HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH SUNDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING LOW.

SUNDAY NIGHT...A SHORTWAVE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM MOVING SOUTH
OUT OF THE DAKOTAS WILL ENERGIZE A BAROCLINIC ZONE IN THE OHIO
VALLEY. THE RESULTANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP IN THE GULF
OF MAINE MONDAY MORNING AND DEEPEN QUICKLY IN THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS LOW WILL BRING SNOW TO THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AND FOLLOW THE RECENT PATTERN OF
HIGHER TOTALS DOWN EAST AND VIRTUALLY NOTHING IN THE SAINT JOHN
VALLEY. HAVE SPECIFIED CATEGORICAL POPS ALONG THE DOWN EAST COAST
AND TAPERED TO SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE CROWN OF MAINE. THIS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE A FAST-MOVER AND WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
ADVISORY-LEVEL SNOWFALL IN THE DOWN EAST ZONES. ANOTHER SHOT OF
ARCTIC AIR SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA BEHIND THE LOW LATER MONDAY.
SINCE THE LOW DEEPENS SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...
EXPECT STRONG WINDS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY NIGHT. A WIND
CHILL ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD RAPIDLY TUESDAY WITH DECREASING WINDS.
THE HIGH WILL PROVIDE A SUNNY AND COLD DAY FOR TUESDAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER TEENS NORTH AND LOW-MID 20S FOR BANGOR AND DOWN EAST.
LOW TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY NIGHT WILL OCCUR BEFORE MIDNIGHT SINCE
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE MOVING
RAPIDLY OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION IN THE SOUTHWESTERN US.
THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO GENERATE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
OVERRUNNING SNOW LATER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH STRONG
WARM AIR ADVECTION. BEING A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM...IT WILL DRAW
SUFFICIENTLY WARMER AIR ALOFT TO CHANGE PRECIP TO DRIZZLE...FREEZING
RAIN AND SLEET LATER WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL
FALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW BEFORE THE WARMER AIR ARRIVES. SNOWFALL
WILL BE WET AND HEAVY COMPARED TO RECENT EVENTS AND WILL MOST
LIKELY BE ANOTHER ADVISORY EVENT WITH LOW SNOW-WATER RATIOS. HAVE
NOT ADDED FOG TO THE FORECAST FOR LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
MORNING...BUT IT WILL LIKELY OCCUR WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE WARMER
SURFACE AIR. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO THE WARMEST SINCE THE
LAST RAIN EVENT ON JAN 19. THE WARM AIR WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS AN
ARCTIC FRONT ARRIVES LATER THURSDAY WITH A RETURN TO THE DEEP
FREEZE. THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT A SECONDARY WAVE COULD DEVELOP
ON THE COLD FRONT AND AFFECT THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA ON
THURSDAY...BUT IT ONLY MERITS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS XPCTD ALL TAF SITES TDY THRU SAT.

SHORT TERM: VFR SAT NGT UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT. BECOMING IFR IN SNOW
LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY MVFR CIGS
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALL TERMINALS WILL BE VFR LATER
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: MDT FZG SPY REQUIRING A FZG SPY ADV STILL XPCTD INTO
MID MORN. AFTWRDS...LGT FZG SPY XPCTD WITH A POSSIBILITY OF MORE
MDT FZG SPY REQUIRING AN AN ADDITIONAL SPY ADV LATE TNGT INTO SAT
MORN. OTHERWISE...NO WIND/WV HDLNS NEEDED TDY THRU SAT. KEPT
CLOSE TO WW3 WV GUIDANCE WITH LATEST BUOY OBS NOT SHOWING MUCH IN
THE WAY OF MARKED DEVIATION FROM THE GUIDANCE.

SHORT TERM: A LOW-END GALE IS EXPECTED LATER MONDAY. ANOTHER SCA
IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
BANGOR IS STILL ON TRACK FOR THE COLDEST FEBRUARY AND
ALL-TIME COLDEST MONTH ON RECORD. CARIBOU REMAINS ON PACE FOR THE
COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD...AND THE TOP 3 OR 4 ALL-TIME COLDEST
MONTHS ON RECORD.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...MCW
LONG TERM...MCW
AVIATION...VJN/MCW
MARINE...VJN/MCW
CLIMATE...VJN




000
FXUS61 KCAR 271056
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
556 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA
LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN BEHIND THIS LOW MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
540 AM UPDATE: ONLY CHGS WERE TO INCLUDE LATEST HRLY 5-6 AM OBSVD
TEMPS AND UPDATE ERLY MORN LOWS WITH TEMPS AT LCTNS EXCEEDING
PRIOR LOW TEMPS WITH THESE LATEST OBS...MOSTLY OVR FAR NW ME...
WHERE CLRG SKIES HAS RESULTED IN AN DEEPER ARCTIC SFC BASE INVSN.
WE THEN MODIFIED FCST HRLY TEMPS INTO THIS AFTN TO UNCHGD FCST HI
TEMPS FROM LAST UPDATE.

ORGNL DISC: STRONG AND SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVR THE
MIDWEST WILL RIDGE ALL THE WAY INTO OUR FA TDY THRU SAT. THIS
SYSTEM WILL DISSIPATE ANY LEFT OVR CLDNSS OVR CNTRL AND DOWNEAST
AREAS THIS MORN BY AFTN.

OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL BE THE TRICKIEST PART OF THIS PTN OF THE
FCST...SINCE ENOUGH PRES GRAD...LLVL LAPSE RATES AND WINDS ALF
WILL BE PRESENT FOR FAIRLY BRISK CONDITIONS BOTH DAYS...BUT NOT
ENOUGH FOR LOW LYING...SPCLY BROAD RVR VLY AREAS TNGT...MEANING
WINDS WILL BECOME LGT AND VARIABLE TNGT OVR THESE AREAS...BUT
MAINTAINING A BREEZE ON HILLSIDES. EMPHASIS ON THIS FCST UPDATE
WAS PLACED ON TRRN DETAILS DRIVEN BY DAY/NIGHT AND VLY/HIER TRRN
WIND/WIND GUST REGIMES SET UP BY AN W TO E RIDGE AXIS PATTERN
ACROSS OUR REGION.

THE IMPACT ON FCST HIGH TEMPS TDY WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO THU`S
HI TEMPS...SINCE FCST AFTN 925 MB TEMPS TDY WILL BE SIMILAR TO
YSTDY. HIGH TEMPS SAT WILL BE ABOUT 5 TO 6 DEG WARMER THAN FRI
WITH FCST AFTN 925 MB TEMPS ABOUT 3 DEG C WARMER THAN FRI. LOW
TEMPS TNGT WILL SHOW EXTRA WIDE VARIATION BETWEEN COLDER LOW LYING
LCTNS AND HILLTOP LCTNS WHICH WILL REMAIN UP TO 10 TO 15 DEG F
WARMER DUE TO WIND SPEEDS OF 5 MPH OR MORE KEEPING THE BL TO
MIXED FOR ANY SFC INVSN TO FORM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE BIGGEST
QUESTION FOR SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE EXTENT OF NIGHTTIME
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND DECOUPLING VERSUS PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST
WINDS ON THE NORTH SIDE OF A 1040MB HIGH. AT THIS POINT...HAVE
LEANED TOWARDS A SOLUTION INDICATED BY THE BIAS-CORRECTED NAM WITH
THE COLDER TEMPERATURES IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
WHERE DECOUPLING AND A DEEPER INVERSION ARE MOST LIKELY. HIGHS ON
SUNDAY WILL REACH INTO THE 20S ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA
WITH SOME LOW 30S ON THE COAST. WHILE SATURDAY WILL FEATURE SUNNY
SKIES...HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH SUNDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING LOW.

SUNDAY NIGHT...A SHORTWAVE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM MOVING SOUTH
OUT OF THE DAKOTAS WILL ENERGIZE A BAROCLINIC ZONE IN THE OHIO
VALLEY. THE RESULTANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP IN THE GULF
OF MAINE MONDAY MORNING AND DEEPEN QUICKLY IN THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS LOW WILL BRING SNOW TO THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AND FOLLOW THE RECENT PATTERN OF
HIGHER TOTALS DOWN EAST AND VIRTUALLY NOTHING IN THE SAINT JOHN
VALLEY. HAVE SPECIFIED CATEGORICAL POPS ALONG THE DOWN EAST COAST
AND TAPERED TO SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE CROWN OF MAINE. THIS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE A FAST-MOVER AND WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
ADVISORY-LEVEL SNOWFALL IN THE DOWN EAST ZONES. ANOTHER SHOT OF
ARCTIC AIR SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA BEHIND THE LOW LATER MONDAY.
SINCE THE LOW DEEPENS SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...
EXPECT STRONG WINDS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY NIGHT. A WIND
CHILL ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD RAPIDLY TUESDAY WITH DECREASING WINDS.
THE HIGH WILL PROVIDE A SUNNY AND COLD DAY FOR TUESDAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER TEENS NORTH AND LOW-MID 20S FOR BANGOR AND DOWN EAST.
LOW TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY NIGHT WILL OCCUR BEFORE MIDNIGHT SINCE
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE MOVING
RAPIDLY OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION IN THE SOUTHWESTERN US.
THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO GENERATE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
OVERRUNNING SNOW LATER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH STRONG
WARM AIR ADVECTION. BEING A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM...IT WILL DRAW
SUFFICIENTLY WARMER AIR ALOFT TO CHANGE PRECIP TO DRIZZLE...FREEZING
RAIN AND SLEET LATER WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL
FALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW BEFORE THE WARMER AIR ARRIVES. SNOWFALL
WILL BE WET AND HEAVY COMPARED TO RECENT EVENTS AND WILL MOST
LIKELY BE ANOTHER ADVISORY EVENT WITH LOW SNOW-WATER RATIOS. HAVE
NOT ADDED FOG TO THE FORECAST FOR LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
MORNING...BUT IT WILL LIKELY OCCUR WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE WARMER
SURFACE AIR. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO THE WARMEST SINCE THE
LAST RAIN EVENT ON JAN 19. THE WARM AIR WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS AN
ARCTIC FRONT ARRIVES LATER THURSDAY WITH A RETURN TO THE DEEP
FREEZE. THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT A SECONDARY WAVE COULD DEVELOP
ON THE COLD FRONT AND AFFECT THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA ON
THURSDAY...BUT IT ONLY MERITS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS XPCTD ALL TAF SITES TDY THRU SAT.

SHORT TERM: VFR SAT NGT UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT. BECOMING IFR IN SNOW
LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY MVFR CIGS
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALL TERMINALS WILL BE VFR LATER
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: MDT FZG SPY REQUIRING A FZG SPY ADV STILL XPCTD INTO
MID MORN. AFTWRDS...LGT FZG SPY XPCTD WITH A POSSIBILITY OF MORE
MDT FZG SPY REQUIRING AN AN ADDITIONAL SPY ADV LATE TNGT INTO SAT
MORN. OTHERWISE...NO WIND/WV HDLNS NEEDED TDY THRU SAT. KEPT
CLOSE TO WW3 WV GUIDANCE WITH LATEST BUOY OBS NOT SHOWING MUCH IN
THE WAY OF MARKED DEVIATION FROM THE GUIDANCE.

SHORT TERM: A LOW-END GALE IS EXPECTED LATER MONDAY. ANOTHER SCA
IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
BANGOR IS STILL ON TRACK FOR THE COLDEST FEBRUARY AND
ALL-TIME COLDEST MONTH ON RECORD. CARIBOU REMAINS ON PACE FOR THE
COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD...AND THE TOP 3 OR 4 ALL-TIME COLDEST
MONTHS ON RECORD.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...MCW
LONG TERM...MCW
AVIATION...VJN/MCW
MARINE...VJN/MCW
CLIMATE...VJN




000
FXUS61 KCAR 271056
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
556 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA
LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN BEHIND THIS LOW MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
540 AM UPDATE: ONLY CHGS WERE TO INCLUDE LATEST HRLY 5-6 AM OBSVD
TEMPS AND UPDATE ERLY MORN LOWS WITH TEMPS AT LCTNS EXCEEDING
PRIOR LOW TEMPS WITH THESE LATEST OBS...MOSTLY OVR FAR NW ME...
WHERE CLRG SKIES HAS RESULTED IN AN DEEPER ARCTIC SFC BASE INVSN.
WE THEN MODIFIED FCST HRLY TEMPS INTO THIS AFTN TO UNCHGD FCST HI
TEMPS FROM LAST UPDATE.

ORGNL DISC: STRONG AND SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVR THE
MIDWEST WILL RIDGE ALL THE WAY INTO OUR FA TDY THRU SAT. THIS
SYSTEM WILL DISSIPATE ANY LEFT OVR CLDNSS OVR CNTRL AND DOWNEAST
AREAS THIS MORN BY AFTN.

OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL BE THE TRICKIEST PART OF THIS PTN OF THE
FCST...SINCE ENOUGH PRES GRAD...LLVL LAPSE RATES AND WINDS ALF
WILL BE PRESENT FOR FAIRLY BRISK CONDITIONS BOTH DAYS...BUT NOT
ENOUGH FOR LOW LYING...SPCLY BROAD RVR VLY AREAS TNGT...MEANING
WINDS WILL BECOME LGT AND VARIABLE TNGT OVR THESE AREAS...BUT
MAINTAINING A BREEZE ON HILLSIDES. EMPHASIS ON THIS FCST UPDATE
WAS PLACED ON TRRN DETAILS DRIVEN BY DAY/NIGHT AND VLY/HIER TRRN
WIND/WIND GUST REGIMES SET UP BY AN W TO E RIDGE AXIS PATTERN
ACROSS OUR REGION.

THE IMPACT ON FCST HIGH TEMPS TDY WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO THU`S
HI TEMPS...SINCE FCST AFTN 925 MB TEMPS TDY WILL BE SIMILAR TO
YSTDY. HIGH TEMPS SAT WILL BE ABOUT 5 TO 6 DEG WARMER THAN FRI
WITH FCST AFTN 925 MB TEMPS ABOUT 3 DEG C WARMER THAN FRI. LOW
TEMPS TNGT WILL SHOW EXTRA WIDE VARIATION BETWEEN COLDER LOW LYING
LCTNS AND HILLTOP LCTNS WHICH WILL REMAIN UP TO 10 TO 15 DEG F
WARMER DUE TO WIND SPEEDS OF 5 MPH OR MORE KEEPING THE BL TO
MIXED FOR ANY SFC INVSN TO FORM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE BIGGEST
QUESTION FOR SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE EXTENT OF NIGHTTIME
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND DECOUPLING VERSUS PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST
WINDS ON THE NORTH SIDE OF A 1040MB HIGH. AT THIS POINT...HAVE
LEANED TOWARDS A SOLUTION INDICATED BY THE BIAS-CORRECTED NAM WITH
THE COLDER TEMPERATURES IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
WHERE DECOUPLING AND A DEEPER INVERSION ARE MOST LIKELY. HIGHS ON
SUNDAY WILL REACH INTO THE 20S ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA
WITH SOME LOW 30S ON THE COAST. WHILE SATURDAY WILL FEATURE SUNNY
SKIES...HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH SUNDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING LOW.

SUNDAY NIGHT...A SHORTWAVE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM MOVING SOUTH
OUT OF THE DAKOTAS WILL ENERGIZE A BAROCLINIC ZONE IN THE OHIO
VALLEY. THE RESULTANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP IN THE GULF
OF MAINE MONDAY MORNING AND DEEPEN QUICKLY IN THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS LOW WILL BRING SNOW TO THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AND FOLLOW THE RECENT PATTERN OF
HIGHER TOTALS DOWN EAST AND VIRTUALLY NOTHING IN THE SAINT JOHN
VALLEY. HAVE SPECIFIED CATEGORICAL POPS ALONG THE DOWN EAST COAST
AND TAPERED TO SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE CROWN OF MAINE. THIS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE A FAST-MOVER AND WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
ADVISORY-LEVEL SNOWFALL IN THE DOWN EAST ZONES. ANOTHER SHOT OF
ARCTIC AIR SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA BEHIND THE LOW LATER MONDAY.
SINCE THE LOW DEEPENS SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...
EXPECT STRONG WINDS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY NIGHT. A WIND
CHILL ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD RAPIDLY TUESDAY WITH DECREASING WINDS.
THE HIGH WILL PROVIDE A SUNNY AND COLD DAY FOR TUESDAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER TEENS NORTH AND LOW-MID 20S FOR BANGOR AND DOWN EAST.
LOW TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY NIGHT WILL OCCUR BEFORE MIDNIGHT SINCE
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE MOVING
RAPIDLY OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION IN THE SOUTHWESTERN US.
THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO GENERATE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
OVERRUNNING SNOW LATER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH STRONG
WARM AIR ADVECTION. BEING A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM...IT WILL DRAW
SUFFICIENTLY WARMER AIR ALOFT TO CHANGE PRECIP TO DRIZZLE...FREEZING
RAIN AND SLEET LATER WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL
FALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW BEFORE THE WARMER AIR ARRIVES. SNOWFALL
WILL BE WET AND HEAVY COMPARED TO RECENT EVENTS AND WILL MOST
LIKELY BE ANOTHER ADVISORY EVENT WITH LOW SNOW-WATER RATIOS. HAVE
NOT ADDED FOG TO THE FORECAST FOR LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
MORNING...BUT IT WILL LIKELY OCCUR WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE WARMER
SURFACE AIR. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO THE WARMEST SINCE THE
LAST RAIN EVENT ON JAN 19. THE WARM AIR WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS AN
ARCTIC FRONT ARRIVES LATER THURSDAY WITH A RETURN TO THE DEEP
FREEZE. THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT A SECONDARY WAVE COULD DEVELOP
ON THE COLD FRONT AND AFFECT THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA ON
THURSDAY...BUT IT ONLY MERITS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS XPCTD ALL TAF SITES TDY THRU SAT.

SHORT TERM: VFR SAT NGT UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT. BECOMING IFR IN SNOW
LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY MVFR CIGS
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALL TERMINALS WILL BE VFR LATER
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: MDT FZG SPY REQUIRING A FZG SPY ADV STILL XPCTD INTO
MID MORN. AFTWRDS...LGT FZG SPY XPCTD WITH A POSSIBILITY OF MORE
MDT FZG SPY REQUIRING AN AN ADDITIONAL SPY ADV LATE TNGT INTO SAT
MORN. OTHERWISE...NO WIND/WV HDLNS NEEDED TDY THRU SAT. KEPT
CLOSE TO WW3 WV GUIDANCE WITH LATEST BUOY OBS NOT SHOWING MUCH IN
THE WAY OF MARKED DEVIATION FROM THE GUIDANCE.

SHORT TERM: A LOW-END GALE IS EXPECTED LATER MONDAY. ANOTHER SCA
IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
BANGOR IS STILL ON TRACK FOR THE COLDEST FEBRUARY AND
ALL-TIME COLDEST MONTH ON RECORD. CARIBOU REMAINS ON PACE FOR THE
COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD...AND THE TOP 3 OR 4 ALL-TIME COLDEST
MONTHS ON RECORD.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...MCW
LONG TERM...MCW
AVIATION...VJN/MCW
MARINE...VJN/MCW
CLIMATE...VJN



000
FXUS61 KCAR 270852
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
352 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA
LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN BEHIND THIS LOW MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
STRONG AND SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVR THE MIDWEST WILL
RIDGE ALL THE WAY INTO OUR FA TDY THRU SAT. THIS SYSTEM WILL
DISSIPATE ANY LEFT OVR CLDNSS OVR CNTRL AND DOWNEAST AREAS THIS
MORN BY AFTN.

OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL BE THE TRICKIEST PART OF THIS PTN OF THE
FCST...SINCE ENOUGH PRES GRAD...LLVL LAPSE RATES AND WINDS ALF
WILL BE PRESENT FOR FAIRLY BRISK CONDITIONS BOTH DAYS...BUT NOT
ENOUGH FOR LOW LYING...SPCLY BROAD RVR VLY AREAS TNGT...MEANING
WINDS WILL BECOME LGT AND VARIABLE TNGT OVR THESE AREAS...BUT
MAINTAINING A BREEZE ON HILLSIDES. EMPHASIS ON THIS FCST UPDATE
WAS PLACED ON TRRN DETAILS DRIVEN BY DAY/NIGHT AND VLY/HIER TRRN
WIND/WIND GUST REGIMES SET UP BY AN W TO E RIDGE AXIS PATTERN
ACROSS OUR REGION.

THE IMPACT ON FCST HIGH TEMPS TDY WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO THU`S
HI TEMPS...SINCE FCST AFTN 925 MB TEMPS TDY WILL BE SIMILAR TO
YSTDY. HIGH TEMPS SAT WILL BE ABOUT 5 TO 6 DEG WARMER THAN FRI
WITH FCST AFTN 925 MB TEMPS ABOUT 3 DEG C WARMER THAN FRI. LOW
TEMPS TNGT WILL SHOW EXTRA WIDE VARIATION BETWEEN COLDER LOW LYING
LCTNS AND HILLTOP LCTNS WHICH WILL REMAIN UP TO 10 TO 15 DEG F
WARMER DUE TO WIND SPEEDS OF 5 MPH OR MORE KEEPING THE BL TO
MIXED FOR ANY SFC INVSN TO FORM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE BIGGEST
QUESTION FOR SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE EXTENT OF NIGHTTIME
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND DECOUPLING VERSUS PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST
WINDS ON THE NORTH SIDE OF A 1040MB HIGH. AT THIS POINT...HAVE
LEANED TOWARDS A SOLUTION INDICATED BY THE BIAS-CORRECTED NAM WITH
THE COLDER TEMPERATURES IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
WHERE DECOUPLING AND A DEEPER INVERSION ARE MOST LIKELY. HIGHS ON
SUNDAY WILL REACH INTO THE 20S ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA
WITH SOME LOW 30S ON THE COAST. WHILE SATURDAY WILL FEATURE SUNNY
SKIES...HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH SUNDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING LOW.

SUNDAY NIGHT...A SHORTWAVE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM MOVING SOUTH
OUT OF THE DAKOTAS WILL ENERGIZE A BAROCLINIC ZONE IN THE OHIO
VALLEY. THE RESULTANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP IN THE GULF
OF MAINE MONDAY MORNING AND DEEPEN QUICKLY IN THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS LOW WILL BRING SNOW TO THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AND FOLLOW THE RECENT PATTERN OF
HIGHER TOTALS DOWN EAST AND VIRTUALLY NOTHING IN THE SAINT JOHN
VALLEY. HAVE SPECIFIED CATEGORICAL POPS ALONG THE DOWN EAST COAST
AND TAPERED TO SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE CROWN OF MAINE. THIS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE A FAST-MOVER AND WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
ADVISORY-LEVEL SNOWFALL IN THE DOWN EAST ZONES. ANOTHER SHOT OF
ARCTIC AIR SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA BEHIND THE LOW LATER MONDAY.
SINCE THE LOW DEEPENS SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...
EXPECT STRONG WINDS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY NIGHT. A WIND
CHILL ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD RAPIDLY TUESDAY WITH DECREASING WINDS.
THE HIGH WILL PROVIDE A SUNNY AND COLD DAY FOR TUESDAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER TEENS NORTH AND LOW-MID 20S FOR BANGOR AND DOWN EAST.
LOW TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY NIGHT WILL OCCUR BEFORE MIDNIGHT SINCE
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE MOVING
RAPIDLY OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION IN THE SOUTHWESTERN US.
THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO GENERATE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
OVERRUNNING SNOW LATER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH STRONG
WARM AIR ADVECTION. BEING A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM...IT WILL DRAW
SUFFICIENTLY WARMER AIR ALOFT TO CHANGE PRECIP TO DRIZZLE...FREEZING
RAIN AND SLEET LATER WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL
FALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW BEFORE THE WARMER AIR ARRIVES. SNOWFALL
WILL BE WET AND HEAVY COMPARED TO RECENT EVENTS AND WILL MOST
LIKELY BE ANOTHER ADVISORY EVENT WITH LOW SNOW-WATER RATIOS. HAVE
NOT ADDED FOG TO THE FORECAST FOR LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
MORNING...BUT IT WILL LIKELY OCCUR WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE WARMER
SURFACE AIR. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO THE WARMEST SINCE THE
LAST RAIN EVENT ON JAN 19. THE WARM AIR WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS AN
ARCTIC FRONT ARRIVES LATER THURSDAY WITH A RETURN TO THE DEEP
FREEZE. THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT A SECONDARY WAVE COULD DEVELOP
ON THE COLD FRONT AND AFFECT THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA ON
THURSDAY...BUT IT ONLY MERITS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS XPCTD ALL TAF SITES TDY THRU SAT.

SHORT TERM: VFR SAT NGT UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT. BECOMING IFR IN SNOW
LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY MVFR CIGS
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALL TERMINALS WILL BE VFR LATER
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: MDT FZG SPY REQUIRING A FZG SPY ADV STILL XPCTD INTO
MID MORN. AFTWRDS...LGT FZG SPY XPCTD WITH A POSSIBILITY OF MORE
MDT FZG SPY REQUIRING AN AN ADDITIONAL SPY ADV LATE TNGT INTO SAT
MORN. OTHERWISE...NO WIND/WV HDLNS NEEDED TDY THRU SAT. KEPT
CLOSE TO WW3 WV GUIDANCE WITH LATEST BUOY OBS NOT SHOWING MUCH IN
THE WAY OF MARKED DEVIATION FROM THE GUIDANCE.

SHORT TERM: A LOW-END GALE IS EXPECTED LATER MONDAY. ANOTHER SCA
IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
BANGOR IS STILL ON TRACK FOR THE COLDEST FEBRUARY AND
ALL-TIME COLDEST MONTH ON RECORD. CARIBOU REMAINS ON PACE FOR THE
COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD...AND THE TOP 3 OR 4 ALL-TIME COLDEST
MONTHS ON RECORD.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...MCW
LONG TERM...MCW
AVIATION...VJN/MCW
MARINE...VJN/MCW
CLIMATE...VJN



000
FXUS61 KCAR 270852
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
352 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA
LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN BEHIND THIS LOW MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
STRONG AND SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVR THE MIDWEST WILL
RIDGE ALL THE WAY INTO OUR FA TDY THRU SAT. THIS SYSTEM WILL
DISSIPATE ANY LEFT OVR CLDNSS OVR CNTRL AND DOWNEAST AREAS THIS
MORN BY AFTN.

OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL BE THE TRICKIEST PART OF THIS PTN OF THE
FCST...SINCE ENOUGH PRES GRAD...LLVL LAPSE RATES AND WINDS ALF
WILL BE PRESENT FOR FAIRLY BRISK CONDITIONS BOTH DAYS...BUT NOT
ENOUGH FOR LOW LYING...SPCLY BROAD RVR VLY AREAS TNGT...MEANING
WINDS WILL BECOME LGT AND VARIABLE TNGT OVR THESE AREAS...BUT
MAINTAINING A BREEZE ON HILLSIDES. EMPHASIS ON THIS FCST UPDATE
WAS PLACED ON TRRN DETAILS DRIVEN BY DAY/NIGHT AND VLY/HIER TRRN
WIND/WIND GUST REGIMES SET UP BY AN W TO E RIDGE AXIS PATTERN
ACROSS OUR REGION.

THE IMPACT ON FCST HIGH TEMPS TDY WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO THU`S
HI TEMPS...SINCE FCST AFTN 925 MB TEMPS TDY WILL BE SIMILAR TO
YSTDY. HIGH TEMPS SAT WILL BE ABOUT 5 TO 6 DEG WARMER THAN FRI
WITH FCST AFTN 925 MB TEMPS ABOUT 3 DEG C WARMER THAN FRI. LOW
TEMPS TNGT WILL SHOW EXTRA WIDE VARIATION BETWEEN COLDER LOW LYING
LCTNS AND HILLTOP LCTNS WHICH WILL REMAIN UP TO 10 TO 15 DEG F
WARMER DUE TO WIND SPEEDS OF 5 MPH OR MORE KEEPING THE BL TO
MIXED FOR ANY SFC INVSN TO FORM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE BIGGEST
QUESTION FOR SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE EXTENT OF NIGHTTIME
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND DECOUPLING VERSUS PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST
WINDS ON THE NORTH SIDE OF A 1040MB HIGH. AT THIS POINT...HAVE
LEANED TOWARDS A SOLUTION INDICATED BY THE BIAS-CORRECTED NAM WITH
THE COLDER TEMPERATURES IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
WHERE DECOUPLING AND A DEEPER INVERSION ARE MOST LIKELY. HIGHS ON
SUNDAY WILL REACH INTO THE 20S ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA
WITH SOME LOW 30S ON THE COAST. WHILE SATURDAY WILL FEATURE SUNNY
SKIES...HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH SUNDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING LOW.

SUNDAY NIGHT...A SHORTWAVE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM MOVING SOUTH
OUT OF THE DAKOTAS WILL ENERGIZE A BAROCLINIC ZONE IN THE OHIO
VALLEY. THE RESULTANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP IN THE GULF
OF MAINE MONDAY MORNING AND DEEPEN QUICKLY IN THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS LOW WILL BRING SNOW TO THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AND FOLLOW THE RECENT PATTERN OF
HIGHER TOTALS DOWN EAST AND VIRTUALLY NOTHING IN THE SAINT JOHN
VALLEY. HAVE SPECIFIED CATEGORICAL POPS ALONG THE DOWN EAST COAST
AND TAPERED TO SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE CROWN OF MAINE. THIS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE A FAST-MOVER AND WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
ADVISORY-LEVEL SNOWFALL IN THE DOWN EAST ZONES. ANOTHER SHOT OF
ARCTIC AIR SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA BEHIND THE LOW LATER MONDAY.
SINCE THE LOW DEEPENS SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...
EXPECT STRONG WINDS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY NIGHT. A WIND
CHILL ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD RAPIDLY TUESDAY WITH DECREASING WINDS.
THE HIGH WILL PROVIDE A SUNNY AND COLD DAY FOR TUESDAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER TEENS NORTH AND LOW-MID 20S FOR BANGOR AND DOWN EAST.
LOW TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY NIGHT WILL OCCUR BEFORE MIDNIGHT SINCE
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE MOVING
RAPIDLY OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION IN THE SOUTHWESTERN US.
THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO GENERATE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
OVERRUNNING SNOW LATER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH STRONG
WARM AIR ADVECTION. BEING A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM...IT WILL DRAW
SUFFICIENTLY WARMER AIR ALOFT TO CHANGE PRECIP TO DRIZZLE...FREEZING
RAIN AND SLEET LATER WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL
FALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW BEFORE THE WARMER AIR ARRIVES. SNOWFALL
WILL BE WET AND HEAVY COMPARED TO RECENT EVENTS AND WILL MOST
LIKELY BE ANOTHER ADVISORY EVENT WITH LOW SNOW-WATER RATIOS. HAVE
NOT ADDED FOG TO THE FORECAST FOR LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
MORNING...BUT IT WILL LIKELY OCCUR WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE WARMER
SURFACE AIR. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO THE WARMEST SINCE THE
LAST RAIN EVENT ON JAN 19. THE WARM AIR WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS AN
ARCTIC FRONT ARRIVES LATER THURSDAY WITH A RETURN TO THE DEEP
FREEZE. THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT A SECONDARY WAVE COULD DEVELOP
ON THE COLD FRONT AND AFFECT THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA ON
THURSDAY...BUT IT ONLY MERITS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS XPCTD ALL TAF SITES TDY THRU SAT.

SHORT TERM: VFR SAT NGT UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT. BECOMING IFR IN SNOW
LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY MVFR CIGS
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALL TERMINALS WILL BE VFR LATER
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: MDT FZG SPY REQUIRING A FZG SPY ADV STILL XPCTD INTO
MID MORN. AFTWRDS...LGT FZG SPY XPCTD WITH A POSSIBILITY OF MORE
MDT FZG SPY REQUIRING AN AN ADDITIONAL SPY ADV LATE TNGT INTO SAT
MORN. OTHERWISE...NO WIND/WV HDLNS NEEDED TDY THRU SAT. KEPT
CLOSE TO WW3 WV GUIDANCE WITH LATEST BUOY OBS NOT SHOWING MUCH IN
THE WAY OF MARKED DEVIATION FROM THE GUIDANCE.

SHORT TERM: A LOW-END GALE IS EXPECTED LATER MONDAY. ANOTHER SCA
IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
BANGOR IS STILL ON TRACK FOR THE COLDEST FEBRUARY AND
ALL-TIME COLDEST MONTH ON RECORD. CARIBOU REMAINS ON PACE FOR THE
COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD...AND THE TOP 3 OR 4 ALL-TIME COLDEST
MONTHS ON RECORD.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...MCW
LONG TERM...MCW
AVIATION...VJN/MCW
MARINE...VJN/MCW
CLIMATE...VJN




000
FXUS61 KGYX 270808
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
308 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY
AND WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY. A WEAK
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND
WILL QUICKLY SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST MONDAY NIGHT AND WILL CREST OVER THE
REGION ON TUESDAY BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST OUT OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT AND WILL
PASS NORTHWEST OF THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST TODAY WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR
CLOUD COVER THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. DESPITE
AFTERNOON SUN...HIGH TEMPS WILL ONLY RANGE THROUGH THE TEENS NORTH
TO LOWER 20S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
PLUMMET TONIGHT. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM 10 TO 20 BELOW NORTH TO 5
ABOVE TO 10 BELOW SOUTH.

SATURDAY WILL FEATURE SCATTERED CLOUDS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND PLENTY
OF SUNSHINE ELSEWHERE. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SLIGHTLY BUT
WILL STILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS IN THE NORTH WILL BE IN
THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S AND LOWER TO MID 20S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS SUGGESTING JUST SOME SUBTLE CHANGES TO 500 MB PATTERN IN
THE EXTENDED FORECAST. NOTHING THAT WILL CHANGE THE OVERALL +PNA
PATTERN...BUT ENOUGH THAT WILL BRING A STORM TRACK TO OUR WEST AND
PUSH SOME WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK.

500MB ZONAL FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN BEFORE A WEAK
WAVE APPROACHES SUN NIGHT...AND THEN DIGS TO OUR NE ON MONDAY. SAT
NIGHT WILL BE CLEAR AND COLD WITH LOWS SINGLE BLO ZERO TO THE
NORTH...AND SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO ELSEWHERE. SUNDAY WILL START
OFF WITH SUN...BUT CLOUDS BEGIN TO MOVE IN DURING THE AFTERNOON AS
THE SYSTEM APPROACHES. LOOKS LIKE ANY SNOW WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL SUN
EVENING. NOT EXPECTING TOO MUCH IN THE WAY OF QPF...QUARTER OF AN
INCH OR LESS GENERALLY...AS THE SFC LOW DOES NOT INTENSIFY UNTIL
IT REACHES THE MARITIMES ON MONDAY MORNING. SO A COUPLE OF INCHES
OF SNOW POSSIBLE SUNDAY...WITH CLEARING ON MONDAY IN W-NW FLOW.
THE DOWNSLOPE SHOULD ALLOW THINGS TO WARM AGAIN INTO THE UPPER 20S
TO MID 30S...WHICH IS CLOSE TO NORMAL.

HIGH PRES THEN BUILDS IN LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS A DECENT
RIDGE BUILDS ALOFT. ALTHOUGH MID-HIGH CLOUDS SPILLING IN ON TUE
WILL KEEP TEMPS A LITTLE COOLER THAN MON. ANOTHER 500 TROUGH
APPROACHES BY TUE NIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE MOST ENERGETIC PART OF IT
STAYS NW OF NEW ENGLAND. THE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT MAIN SFC
LOW STAYS TO THE W AS WELL...BUT DIFFER SOMEWHAT ON TIMING...AND
WHETHER THERE IS THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANOTHER LOW ON THE COAST. ANY
PRECIP WILL PROB START AS SNOW BUT WITH TRACK TO THE WEST...WILL
GET SOME WARM IN ALOFT AT LEAST...AND COULD SEE SOME FZRA OR RA IN
THE MIX. AT THIS POINT...THIS DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A MAJOR
SYSTEM...BUT STILL BEYOND DAY 5...AND THIS WINTER THE MODELS CAN
CHANGE A LOT IN THAT TIMEFRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

LONG TERM...VFR SAT NIGHT AND SUN...THEN A PERIOD OF IFR IN SN SUN
NIGHT...IMPROVING TO VFR AGAIN ON MON AND TUE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY TIL 15Z.

LONG TERM...SCA LKLY ON MONDAY IN NW FLOW AND POSSIBLE FZ SPRAY
MON NIGHT.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KGYX 270808
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
308 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY
AND WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY. A WEAK
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND
WILL QUICKLY SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST MONDAY NIGHT AND WILL CREST OVER THE
REGION ON TUESDAY BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST OUT OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT AND WILL
PASS NORTHWEST OF THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST TODAY WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR
CLOUD COVER THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. DESPITE
AFTERNOON SUN...HIGH TEMPS WILL ONLY RANGE THROUGH THE TEENS NORTH
TO LOWER 20S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
PLUMMET TONIGHT. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM 10 TO 20 BELOW NORTH TO 5
ABOVE TO 10 BELOW SOUTH.

SATURDAY WILL FEATURE SCATTERED CLOUDS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND PLENTY
OF SUNSHINE ELSEWHERE. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SLIGHTLY BUT
WILL STILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS IN THE NORTH WILL BE IN
THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S AND LOWER TO MID 20S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS SUGGESTING JUST SOME SUBTLE CHANGES TO 500 MB PATTERN IN
THE EXTENDED FORECAST. NOTHING THAT WILL CHANGE THE OVERALL +PNA
PATTERN...BUT ENOUGH THAT WILL BRING A STORM TRACK TO OUR WEST AND
PUSH SOME WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK.

500MB ZONAL FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN BEFORE A WEAK
WAVE APPROACHES SUN NIGHT...AND THEN DIGS TO OUR NE ON MONDAY. SAT
NIGHT WILL BE CLEAR AND COLD WITH LOWS SINGLE BLO ZERO TO THE
NORTH...AND SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO ELSEWHERE. SUNDAY WILL START
OFF WITH SUN...BUT CLOUDS BEGIN TO MOVE IN DURING THE AFTERNOON AS
THE SYSTEM APPROACHES. LOOKS LIKE ANY SNOW WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL SUN
EVENING. NOT EXPECTING TOO MUCH IN THE WAY OF QPF...QUARTER OF AN
INCH OR LESS GENERALLY...AS THE SFC LOW DOES NOT INTENSIFY UNTIL
IT REACHES THE MARITIMES ON MONDAY MORNING. SO A COUPLE OF INCHES
OF SNOW POSSIBLE SUNDAY...WITH CLEARING ON MONDAY IN W-NW FLOW.
THE DOWNSLOPE SHOULD ALLOW THINGS TO WARM AGAIN INTO THE UPPER 20S
TO MID 30S...WHICH IS CLOSE TO NORMAL.

HIGH PRES THEN BUILDS IN LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS A DECENT
RIDGE BUILDS ALOFT. ALTHOUGH MID-HIGH CLOUDS SPILLING IN ON TUE
WILL KEEP TEMPS A LITTLE COOLER THAN MON. ANOTHER 500 TROUGH
APPROACHES BY TUE NIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE MOST ENERGETIC PART OF IT
STAYS NW OF NEW ENGLAND. THE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT MAIN SFC
LOW STAYS TO THE W AS WELL...BUT DIFFER SOMEWHAT ON TIMING...AND
WHETHER THERE IS THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANOTHER LOW ON THE COAST. ANY
PRECIP WILL PROB START AS SNOW BUT WITH TRACK TO THE WEST...WILL
GET SOME WARM IN ALOFT AT LEAST...AND COULD SEE SOME FZRA OR RA IN
THE MIX. AT THIS POINT...THIS DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A MAJOR
SYSTEM...BUT STILL BEYOND DAY 5...AND THIS WINTER THE MODELS CAN
CHANGE A LOT IN THAT TIMEFRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

LONG TERM...VFR SAT NIGHT AND SUN...THEN A PERIOD OF IFR IN SN SUN
NIGHT...IMPROVING TO VFR AGAIN ON MON AND TUE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY TIL 15Z.

LONG TERM...SCA LKLY ON MONDAY IN NW FLOW AND POSSIBLE FZ SPRAY
MON NIGHT.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KCAR 270544
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1244 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1215 AM UPDATE: THE FCST FOR THE REST OF THE LATE NGT WAS UPDATED
TO TAKE INTO CONSIDERATION LATEST CLD CVR TRENDS BASED ON SAT
IMAGERY AND FCST HRLY TEMPS BASED ON 11 PM-12 AM OBSVD TEMP TRENDS
FROM THE PREV FCST TEMPS AT THESE HRS. LASTLY...WIND SPEEDS WERE
LOWERED OVR BROAD VLY AREAS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LATE NGT INTO
ERLY MORN HRS FRI.

PREV DISCUSSION: FRIDAY WILL BE SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY AND COLD
AS WE REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH WHICH WILL BE
APPROACHING THE EAST COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TRANQUIL WEATHER THIS WEEKEND WITH A MODERATING AIR MASS. STRONG
SFC HIGH PRES OVER THE MIDWEST AND OHIO VALLEY AT 00Z SAT WILL
SLOWLY MOVE EAST AND OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST SUN AFTERNOON.
THE CWA WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF THE HIGH WITH W/SW FLOW.
FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT NIGHT WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR WITH STRONG
INVERSIONS FORMING...ESPECIALLY FRI NIGHT WHEN LOWS WILL LIKELY
DROP TO 20 BELOW OR LOWER IN THE NORMAL COLD SPOTS IN THE NW
VALLEYS. ALL AREAS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE IMMEDIATE SHORELINE
WILL DROP BELOW ZERO. HIGHS SAT WILL RECOVER WITH A FULL DAY OF
SUNSHINE INTO THE TEENS ACROSS THE CROWN OF MAINE AND INTO THE MID
20S ALONG THE COAST. A MILDER AIR MASS AND INCREASED W/SW FLOW
MEANS SAT NIGHT WILL NOT BE AS COLD...BUT IT WILL STILL BE WELL
BELOW ZERO IN MOST VALLEYS. REALLY LIKED THE MID CREWS LOW TEMPS
AND MADE NO ADJUSTMENTS TO THEM. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
SUN WITH HIGHS REBOUNDING BACK INTO THE LOW 20S ACROSS FAR
NORTHERN MAINE TO NEAR 30 ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A NORTHERN BRANCH SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE
WEST SUN NIGHT WITH A SFC LOW TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. THE LOW
WILL LIKELY RE-DEVELOP IN THE GULF OF MAINE AND PUSH INTO THE
MARITIMES MON MORNING. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW TO
DOWN EAST MAINE WITH AMOUNTS TO DROP OFF TO THE NORTH. WHETHER
THERE IS LITTLE/OR NO SNOW IN THE FAR NORTH REMAINS TO BE
SEEN...BUT FAR NORTHERN MAINE AND ESPECIALLY THE ST JOHN VALLEY
MAY ONCE AGAIN BE LEFT HIGH AND DRY. THE BEST CHANCE OF ADVISORY
LEVEL SNOWFALL WILL BE ACROSS THE DOWN EAST REGION. IT IS A FAST
MOVING SYSTEM IN A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN ALOFT SO AT THIS TIME IT
APPEARS UNLIKELY TO BE A WARNING LEVEL EVENT. IN THE WAKE OF THIS
LOW ANOTHER RIDGE BUILDS TOWARD NEW ENGLAND MON NIGHT INTO TUE.
THE AIR MASS IS NOT ALL THAT COLD IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW...BUT
TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL. ANOTHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
AFFECT THE REGION TUE NIGHT INTO WED...BUT THERE IS SIGNIFICANT
MODEL AND ENSEMBLE SPREAD WITH REGARDS TO TIMING AND POSITION
DETAILS. YET ANOTHER SYSTEM MAY AFFECT THE AREA TOWARD THE END OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY.

SHORT TERM: VFR THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  CONDITIONS LIKELY TO LOWER TO
IFR IN SNOW AT THE DOWN EAST TERMINALS SUN NIGHT INTO MON. IT IS
STILL UNCERTAIN HOW MUCH IF ANY SNOW WILL REACH THE NORTHERN
TERMINALS...BUT AT THIS TIME WOULD EXPECT A PERIOD OF AT LEAST
MVFR IN LIGHT SNOW. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO MOSTLY VFR MON
NIGHT INTO TUE.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FOR MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS OVERNIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY.

SHORT TERM: CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
THROUGH SUNDAY.  A PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS LIKELY
SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY. DEPENDING ON HOW RAPIDLY A LOW INTENSIFIES AS
IT PULLS WAY FROM THE AREA MONDAY A BRIEF PERIOD OF GALES WILL BE
POSSIBLE. ANOTHER FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED
FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM...CB
AVIATION...VJN/CB
MARINE...VJN/CB



000
FXUS61 KCAR 270544
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1244 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1215 AM UPDATE: THE FCST FOR THE REST OF THE LATE NGT WAS UPDATED
TO TAKE INTO CONSIDERATION LATEST CLD CVR TRENDS BASED ON SAT
IMAGERY AND FCST HRLY TEMPS BASED ON 11 PM-12 AM OBSVD TEMP TRENDS
FROM THE PREV FCST TEMPS AT THESE HRS. LASTLY...WIND SPEEDS WERE
LOWERED OVR BROAD VLY AREAS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LATE NGT INTO
ERLY MORN HRS FRI.

PREV DISCUSSION: FRIDAY WILL BE SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY AND COLD
AS WE REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH WHICH WILL BE
APPROACHING THE EAST COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TRANQUIL WEATHER THIS WEEKEND WITH A MODERATING AIR MASS. STRONG
SFC HIGH PRES OVER THE MIDWEST AND OHIO VALLEY AT 00Z SAT WILL
SLOWLY MOVE EAST AND OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST SUN AFTERNOON.
THE CWA WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF THE HIGH WITH W/SW FLOW.
FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT NIGHT WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR WITH STRONG
INVERSIONS FORMING...ESPECIALLY FRI NIGHT WHEN LOWS WILL LIKELY
DROP TO 20 BELOW OR LOWER IN THE NORMAL COLD SPOTS IN THE NW
VALLEYS. ALL AREAS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE IMMEDIATE SHORELINE
WILL DROP BELOW ZERO. HIGHS SAT WILL RECOVER WITH A FULL DAY OF
SUNSHINE INTO THE TEENS ACROSS THE CROWN OF MAINE AND INTO THE MID
20S ALONG THE COAST. A MILDER AIR MASS AND INCREASED W/SW FLOW
MEANS SAT NIGHT WILL NOT BE AS COLD...BUT IT WILL STILL BE WELL
BELOW ZERO IN MOST VALLEYS. REALLY LIKED THE MID CREWS LOW TEMPS
AND MADE NO ADJUSTMENTS TO THEM. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
SUN WITH HIGHS REBOUNDING BACK INTO THE LOW 20S ACROSS FAR
NORTHERN MAINE TO NEAR 30 ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A NORTHERN BRANCH SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE
WEST SUN NIGHT WITH A SFC LOW TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. THE LOW
WILL LIKELY RE-DEVELOP IN THE GULF OF MAINE AND PUSH INTO THE
MARITIMES MON MORNING. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW TO
DOWN EAST MAINE WITH AMOUNTS TO DROP OFF TO THE NORTH. WHETHER
THERE IS LITTLE/OR NO SNOW IN THE FAR NORTH REMAINS TO BE
SEEN...BUT FAR NORTHERN MAINE AND ESPECIALLY THE ST JOHN VALLEY
MAY ONCE AGAIN BE LEFT HIGH AND DRY. THE BEST CHANCE OF ADVISORY
LEVEL SNOWFALL WILL BE ACROSS THE DOWN EAST REGION. IT IS A FAST
MOVING SYSTEM IN A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN ALOFT SO AT THIS TIME IT
APPEARS UNLIKELY TO BE A WARNING LEVEL EVENT. IN THE WAKE OF THIS
LOW ANOTHER RIDGE BUILDS TOWARD NEW ENGLAND MON NIGHT INTO TUE.
THE AIR MASS IS NOT ALL THAT COLD IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW...BUT
TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL. ANOTHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
AFFECT THE REGION TUE NIGHT INTO WED...BUT THERE IS SIGNIFICANT
MODEL AND ENSEMBLE SPREAD WITH REGARDS TO TIMING AND POSITION
DETAILS. YET ANOTHER SYSTEM MAY AFFECT THE AREA TOWARD THE END OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY.

SHORT TERM: VFR THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  CONDITIONS LIKELY TO LOWER TO
IFR IN SNOW AT THE DOWN EAST TERMINALS SUN NIGHT INTO MON. IT IS
STILL UNCERTAIN HOW MUCH IF ANY SNOW WILL REACH THE NORTHERN
TERMINALS...BUT AT THIS TIME WOULD EXPECT A PERIOD OF AT LEAST
MVFR IN LIGHT SNOW. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO MOSTLY VFR MON
NIGHT INTO TUE.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FOR MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS OVERNIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY.

SHORT TERM: CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
THROUGH SUNDAY.  A PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS LIKELY
SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY. DEPENDING ON HOW RAPIDLY A LOW INTENSIFIES AS
IT PULLS WAY FROM THE AREA MONDAY A BRIEF PERIOD OF GALES WILL BE
POSSIBLE. ANOTHER FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED
FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM...CB
AVIATION...VJN/CB
MARINE...VJN/CB



000
FXUS61 KCAR 270544
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1244 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1215 AM UPDATE: THE FCST FOR THE REST OF THE LATE NGT WAS UPDATED
TO TAKE INTO CONSIDERATION LATEST CLD CVR TRENDS BASED ON SAT
IMAGERY AND FCST HRLY TEMPS BASED ON 11 PM-12 AM OBSVD TEMP TRENDS
FROM THE PREV FCST TEMPS AT THESE HRS. LASTLY...WIND SPEEDS WERE
LOWERED OVR BROAD VLY AREAS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LATE NGT INTO
ERLY MORN HRS FRI.

PREV DISCUSSION: FRIDAY WILL BE SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY AND COLD
AS WE REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH WHICH WILL BE
APPROACHING THE EAST COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TRANQUIL WEATHER THIS WEEKEND WITH A MODERATING AIR MASS. STRONG
SFC HIGH PRES OVER THE MIDWEST AND OHIO VALLEY AT 00Z SAT WILL
SLOWLY MOVE EAST AND OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST SUN AFTERNOON.
THE CWA WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF THE HIGH WITH W/SW FLOW.
FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT NIGHT WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR WITH STRONG
INVERSIONS FORMING...ESPECIALLY FRI NIGHT WHEN LOWS WILL LIKELY
DROP TO 20 BELOW OR LOWER IN THE NORMAL COLD SPOTS IN THE NW
VALLEYS. ALL AREAS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE IMMEDIATE SHORELINE
WILL DROP BELOW ZERO. HIGHS SAT WILL RECOVER WITH A FULL DAY OF
SUNSHINE INTO THE TEENS ACROSS THE CROWN OF MAINE AND INTO THE MID
20S ALONG THE COAST. A MILDER AIR MASS AND INCREASED W/SW FLOW
MEANS SAT NIGHT WILL NOT BE AS COLD...BUT IT WILL STILL BE WELL
BELOW ZERO IN MOST VALLEYS. REALLY LIKED THE MID CREWS LOW TEMPS
AND MADE NO ADJUSTMENTS TO THEM. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
SUN WITH HIGHS REBOUNDING BACK INTO THE LOW 20S ACROSS FAR
NORTHERN MAINE TO NEAR 30 ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A NORTHERN BRANCH SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE
WEST SUN NIGHT WITH A SFC LOW TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. THE LOW
WILL LIKELY RE-DEVELOP IN THE GULF OF MAINE AND PUSH INTO THE
MARITIMES MON MORNING. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW TO
DOWN EAST MAINE WITH AMOUNTS TO DROP OFF TO THE NORTH. WHETHER
THERE IS LITTLE/OR NO SNOW IN THE FAR NORTH REMAINS TO BE
SEEN...BUT FAR NORTHERN MAINE AND ESPECIALLY THE ST JOHN VALLEY
MAY ONCE AGAIN BE LEFT HIGH AND DRY. THE BEST CHANCE OF ADVISORY
LEVEL SNOWFALL WILL BE ACROSS THE DOWN EAST REGION. IT IS A FAST
MOVING SYSTEM IN A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN ALOFT SO AT THIS TIME IT
APPEARS UNLIKELY TO BE A WARNING LEVEL EVENT. IN THE WAKE OF THIS
LOW ANOTHER RIDGE BUILDS TOWARD NEW ENGLAND MON NIGHT INTO TUE.
THE AIR MASS IS NOT ALL THAT COLD IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW...BUT
TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL. ANOTHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
AFFECT THE REGION TUE NIGHT INTO WED...BUT THERE IS SIGNIFICANT
MODEL AND ENSEMBLE SPREAD WITH REGARDS TO TIMING AND POSITION
DETAILS. YET ANOTHER SYSTEM MAY AFFECT THE AREA TOWARD THE END OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY.

SHORT TERM: VFR THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  CONDITIONS LIKELY TO LOWER TO
IFR IN SNOW AT THE DOWN EAST TERMINALS SUN NIGHT INTO MON. IT IS
STILL UNCERTAIN HOW MUCH IF ANY SNOW WILL REACH THE NORTHERN
TERMINALS...BUT AT THIS TIME WOULD EXPECT A PERIOD OF AT LEAST
MVFR IN LIGHT SNOW. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO MOSTLY VFR MON
NIGHT INTO TUE.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FOR MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS OVERNIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY.

SHORT TERM: CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
THROUGH SUNDAY.  A PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS LIKELY
SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY. DEPENDING ON HOW RAPIDLY A LOW INTENSIFIES AS
IT PULLS WAY FROM THE AREA MONDAY A BRIEF PERIOD OF GALES WILL BE
POSSIBLE. ANOTHER FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED
FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM...CB
AVIATION...VJN/CB
MARINE...VJN/CB



000
FXUS61 KCAR 270544
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1244 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1215 AM UPDATE: THE FCST FOR THE REST OF THE LATE NGT WAS UPDATED
TO TAKE INTO CONSIDERATION LATEST CLD CVR TRENDS BASED ON SAT
IMAGERY AND FCST HRLY TEMPS BASED ON 11 PM-12 AM OBSVD TEMP TRENDS
FROM THE PREV FCST TEMPS AT THESE HRS. LASTLY...WIND SPEEDS WERE
LOWERED OVR BROAD VLY AREAS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LATE NGT INTO
ERLY MORN HRS FRI.

PREV DISCUSSION: FRIDAY WILL BE SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY AND COLD
AS WE REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH WHICH WILL BE
APPROACHING THE EAST COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TRANQUIL WEATHER THIS WEEKEND WITH A MODERATING AIR MASS. STRONG
SFC HIGH PRES OVER THE MIDWEST AND OHIO VALLEY AT 00Z SAT WILL
SLOWLY MOVE EAST AND OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST SUN AFTERNOON.
THE CWA WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF THE HIGH WITH W/SW FLOW.
FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT NIGHT WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR WITH STRONG
INVERSIONS FORMING...ESPECIALLY FRI NIGHT WHEN LOWS WILL LIKELY
DROP TO 20 BELOW OR LOWER IN THE NORMAL COLD SPOTS IN THE NW
VALLEYS. ALL AREAS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE IMMEDIATE SHORELINE
WILL DROP BELOW ZERO. HIGHS SAT WILL RECOVER WITH A FULL DAY OF
SUNSHINE INTO THE TEENS ACROSS THE CROWN OF MAINE AND INTO THE MID
20S ALONG THE COAST. A MILDER AIR MASS AND INCREASED W/SW FLOW
MEANS SAT NIGHT WILL NOT BE AS COLD...BUT IT WILL STILL BE WELL
BELOW ZERO IN MOST VALLEYS. REALLY LIKED THE MID CREWS LOW TEMPS
AND MADE NO ADJUSTMENTS TO THEM. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
SUN WITH HIGHS REBOUNDING BACK INTO THE LOW 20S ACROSS FAR
NORTHERN MAINE TO NEAR 30 ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A NORTHERN BRANCH SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE
WEST SUN NIGHT WITH A SFC LOW TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. THE LOW
WILL LIKELY RE-DEVELOP IN THE GULF OF MAINE AND PUSH INTO THE
MARITIMES MON MORNING. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW TO
DOWN EAST MAINE WITH AMOUNTS TO DROP OFF TO THE NORTH. WHETHER
THERE IS LITTLE/OR NO SNOW IN THE FAR NORTH REMAINS TO BE
SEEN...BUT FAR NORTHERN MAINE AND ESPECIALLY THE ST JOHN VALLEY
MAY ONCE AGAIN BE LEFT HIGH AND DRY. THE BEST CHANCE OF ADVISORY
LEVEL SNOWFALL WILL BE ACROSS THE DOWN EAST REGION. IT IS A FAST
MOVING SYSTEM IN A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN ALOFT SO AT THIS TIME IT
APPEARS UNLIKELY TO BE A WARNING LEVEL EVENT. IN THE WAKE OF THIS
LOW ANOTHER RIDGE BUILDS TOWARD NEW ENGLAND MON NIGHT INTO TUE.
THE AIR MASS IS NOT ALL THAT COLD IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW...BUT
TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL. ANOTHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
AFFECT THE REGION TUE NIGHT INTO WED...BUT THERE IS SIGNIFICANT
MODEL AND ENSEMBLE SPREAD WITH REGARDS TO TIMING AND POSITION
DETAILS. YET ANOTHER SYSTEM MAY AFFECT THE AREA TOWARD THE END OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY.

SHORT TERM: VFR THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  CONDITIONS LIKELY TO LOWER TO
IFR IN SNOW AT THE DOWN EAST TERMINALS SUN NIGHT INTO MON. IT IS
STILL UNCERTAIN HOW MUCH IF ANY SNOW WILL REACH THE NORTHERN
TERMINALS...BUT AT THIS TIME WOULD EXPECT A PERIOD OF AT LEAST
MVFR IN LIGHT SNOW. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO MOSTLY VFR MON
NIGHT INTO TUE.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FOR MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS OVERNIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY.

SHORT TERM: CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
THROUGH SUNDAY.  A PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS LIKELY
SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY. DEPENDING ON HOW RAPIDLY A LOW INTENSIFIES AS
IT PULLS WAY FROM THE AREA MONDAY A BRIEF PERIOD OF GALES WILL BE
POSSIBLE. ANOTHER FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED
FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM...CB
AVIATION...VJN/CB
MARINE...VJN/CB



000
FXUS61 KCAR 270307
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1007 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPDATE...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK EAST OF NOVA SCOTIA OVERNIGHT WHILE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE REGION. AN AREA OF MOSTLY MID/HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. CLOUD COVER WILL BE
MOST EXTENSIVE ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA...WITH LESSER CLOUD COVER TO THE NORTH. LOW
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE EXTENT OF CLOUD
COVER. GENERALLY EXPECT LOWS RANGING FROM 10 TO 15 BELOW ZERO
NORTH...TO AROUND ZERO INTERIOR DOWNEAST WITH SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
ZERO ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADJUST
FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS ALONG WITH EXPECTED OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
FRIDAY WILL BE SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY AND COLD AS WE REMAIN UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH WHICH WILL BE APPROACHING THE EAST
COAST.
&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TRANQUIL WEATHER THIS WEEKEND WITH A MODERATING AIR MASS. STRONG
SFC HIGH PRES OVER THE MIDWEST AND OHIO VALLEY AT 00Z SAT WILL
SLOWLY MOVE EAST AND OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST SUN AFTERNOON.
THE CWA WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF THE HIGH WITH W/SW FLOW.
FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT NIGHT WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR WITH STRONG
INVERSIONS FORMING...ESPECIALLY FRI NIGHT WHEN LOWS WILL LIKELY
DROP TO 20 BELOW OR LOWER IN THE NORMAL COLD SPOTS IN THE NW
VALLEYS. ALL AREAS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE IMMEDIATE SHORELINE
WILL DROP BELOW ZERO. HIGHS SAT WILL RECOVER WITH A FULL DAY OF
SUNSHINE INTO THE TEENS ACROSS THE CROWN OF MAINE AND INTO THE MID
20S ALONG THE COAST. A MILDER AIR MASS AND INCREASED W/SW FLOW
MEANS SAT NIGHT WILL NOT BE AS COLD...BUT IT WILL STILL BE WELL
BELOW ZERO IN MOST VALLEYS. REALLY LIKED THE MID CREWS LOW TEMPS
AND MADE NO ADJUSTMENTS TO THEM. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
SUN WITH HIGHS REBOUNDING BACK INTO THE LOW 20S ACROSS FAR
NORTHERN MAINE TO NEAR 30 ALONG THE COAST.
&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A NORTHERN BRANCH SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE
WEST SUN NIGHT WITH A SFC LOW TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. THE LOW
WILL LIKELY RE-DEVELOP IN THE GULF OF MAINE AND PUSH INTO THE
MARITIMES MON MORNING. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW TO
DOWN EAST MAINE WITH AMOUNTS TO DROP OFF TO THE NORTH. WHETHER
THERE IS LITTLE/OR NO SNOW IN THE FAR NORTH REMAINS TO BE
SEEN...BUT FAR NORTHERN MAINE AND ESPECIALLY THE ST JOHN VALLEY
MAY ONCE AGAIN BE LEFT HIGH AND DRY. THE BEST CHANCE OF ADVISORY
LEVEL SNOWFALL WILL BE ACROSS THE DOWN EAST REGION. IT IS A FAST
MOVING SYSTEM IN A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN ALOFT SO AT THIS TIME IT
APPEARS UNLIKELY TO BE A WARNING LEVEL EVENT. IN THE WAKE OF THIS
LOW ANOTHER RIDGE BUILDS TOWARD NEW ENGLAND MON NIGHT INTO TUE.
THE AIR MASS IS NOT ALL THAT COLD IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW...BUT
TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL. ANOTHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
AFFECT THE REGION TUE NIGHT INTO WED...BUT THERE IS SIGNIFICANT
MODEL AND ENSEMBLE SPREAD WITH REGARDS TO TIMING AND POSITION
DETAILS. YET ANOTHER SYSTEM MAY AFFECT THE AREA TOWARD THE END OF
THE WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY.

SHORT TERM: VFR THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  CONDITIONS LIKELY TO LOWER TO
IFR IN SNOW AT THE DOWN EAST TERMINALS SUN NIGHT INTO MON. IT IS
STILL UNCERTAIN HOW MUCH IF ANY SNOW WILL REACH THE NORTHERN
TERMINALS...BUT AT THIS TIME WOULD EXPECT A PERIOD OF AT LEAST
MVFR IN LIGHT SNOW. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO MOSTLY VFR MON
NIGHT INTO TUE.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FOR MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS OVERNIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY.

SHORT TERM: CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
THROUGH SUNDAY.  A PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS LIKELY
SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY. DEPENDING ON HOW RAPIDLY A LOW INTENSIFIES AS
IT PULLS WAY FROM THE AREA MONDAY A BRIEF PERIOD OF GALES WILL BE
POSSIBLE. ANOTHER FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED
FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...NORCROSS/BLOOMER
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM...CB
AVIATION...NORCROSS/CB
MARINE...NORCROSS/CB




000
FXUS61 KCAR 270307
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1007 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPDATE...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK EAST OF NOVA SCOTIA OVERNIGHT WHILE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE REGION. AN AREA OF MOSTLY MID/HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. CLOUD COVER WILL BE
MOST EXTENSIVE ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA...WITH LESSER CLOUD COVER TO THE NORTH. LOW
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE EXTENT OF CLOUD
COVER. GENERALLY EXPECT LOWS RANGING FROM 10 TO 15 BELOW ZERO
NORTH...TO AROUND ZERO INTERIOR DOWNEAST WITH SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
ZERO ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADJUST
FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS ALONG WITH EXPECTED OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
FRIDAY WILL BE SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY AND COLD AS WE REMAIN UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH WHICH WILL BE APPROACHING THE EAST
COAST.
&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TRANQUIL WEATHER THIS WEEKEND WITH A MODERATING AIR MASS. STRONG
SFC HIGH PRES OVER THE MIDWEST AND OHIO VALLEY AT 00Z SAT WILL
SLOWLY MOVE EAST AND OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST SUN AFTERNOON.
THE CWA WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF THE HIGH WITH W/SW FLOW.
FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT NIGHT WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR WITH STRONG
INVERSIONS FORMING...ESPECIALLY FRI NIGHT WHEN LOWS WILL LIKELY
DROP TO 20 BELOW OR LOWER IN THE NORMAL COLD SPOTS IN THE NW
VALLEYS. ALL AREAS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE IMMEDIATE SHORELINE
WILL DROP BELOW ZERO. HIGHS SAT WILL RECOVER WITH A FULL DAY OF
SUNSHINE INTO THE TEENS ACROSS THE CROWN OF MAINE AND INTO THE MID
20S ALONG THE COAST. A MILDER AIR MASS AND INCREASED W/SW FLOW
MEANS SAT NIGHT WILL NOT BE AS COLD...BUT IT WILL STILL BE WELL
BELOW ZERO IN MOST VALLEYS. REALLY LIKED THE MID CREWS LOW TEMPS
AND MADE NO ADJUSTMENTS TO THEM. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
SUN WITH HIGHS REBOUNDING BACK INTO THE LOW 20S ACROSS FAR
NORTHERN MAINE TO NEAR 30 ALONG THE COAST.
&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A NORTHERN BRANCH SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE
WEST SUN NIGHT WITH A SFC LOW TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. THE LOW
WILL LIKELY RE-DEVELOP IN THE GULF OF MAINE AND PUSH INTO THE
MARITIMES MON MORNING. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW TO
DOWN EAST MAINE WITH AMOUNTS TO DROP OFF TO THE NORTH. WHETHER
THERE IS LITTLE/OR NO SNOW IN THE FAR NORTH REMAINS TO BE
SEEN...BUT FAR NORTHERN MAINE AND ESPECIALLY THE ST JOHN VALLEY
MAY ONCE AGAIN BE LEFT HIGH AND DRY. THE BEST CHANCE OF ADVISORY
LEVEL SNOWFALL WILL BE ACROSS THE DOWN EAST REGION. IT IS A FAST
MOVING SYSTEM IN A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN ALOFT SO AT THIS TIME IT
APPEARS UNLIKELY TO BE A WARNING LEVEL EVENT. IN THE WAKE OF THIS
LOW ANOTHER RIDGE BUILDS TOWARD NEW ENGLAND MON NIGHT INTO TUE.
THE AIR MASS IS NOT ALL THAT COLD IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW...BUT
TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL. ANOTHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
AFFECT THE REGION TUE NIGHT INTO WED...BUT THERE IS SIGNIFICANT
MODEL AND ENSEMBLE SPREAD WITH REGARDS TO TIMING AND POSITION
DETAILS. YET ANOTHER SYSTEM MAY AFFECT THE AREA TOWARD THE END OF
THE WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY.

SHORT TERM: VFR THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  CONDITIONS LIKELY TO LOWER TO
IFR IN SNOW AT THE DOWN EAST TERMINALS SUN NIGHT INTO MON. IT IS
STILL UNCERTAIN HOW MUCH IF ANY SNOW WILL REACH THE NORTHERN
TERMINALS...BUT AT THIS TIME WOULD EXPECT A PERIOD OF AT LEAST
MVFR IN LIGHT SNOW. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO MOSTLY VFR MON
NIGHT INTO TUE.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FOR MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS OVERNIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY.

SHORT TERM: CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
THROUGH SUNDAY.  A PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS LIKELY
SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY. DEPENDING ON HOW RAPIDLY A LOW INTENSIFIES AS
IT PULLS WAY FROM THE AREA MONDAY A BRIEF PERIOD OF GALES WILL BE
POSSIBLE. ANOTHER FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED
FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...NORCROSS/BLOOMER
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM...CB
AVIATION...NORCROSS/CB
MARINE...NORCROSS/CB



000
FXUS61 KGYX 270124
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
824 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK WELL TO OUR SOUTH LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH SATURDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION ON SUNDAY BEFORE SHIFTING
OFFSHORE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH
FROM THE WEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL CROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY
DRAGGING A TRAILING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST MONDAY NIGHT AND WILL CREST OVER THE
AREA ON TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE EAST COAST TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
830PM UPDATE...
COOL DRY AIR PERSISTS ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING... WITH LIGHT
WINDS LEADING TO A FAIRLY COLD NIGHT. HAVE ONLY MADE A FEW MINOR
MODIFICATIONS TO OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR
A FEW LOCAL COLD SPOTS. OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE
NEEDED TO THE GOING FORECAST.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
OVERNIGHT LOTS OF HIGH...THIN OVERCAST WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. DESPITE COLD FRONT SAGGING SOUTH TOWARDS THE
AREA...THE OVERCAST OR PARTIAL OVERCAST WILL LIMIT COOLING
SOMEWHAT. BEST CHANCE TO CLEAR OUT WILL BE THE NORTHERN
VALLEYS...WHERE SURFACE RIDGING WILL TRY TO NOSE IN FIRST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BRANCH INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL KEEP
WEATHER ON THE QUIET SIDE. CONTINUED CLEARING...COLDER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AND LIGHT WINDS WILL BE THE RULE. RIDGE
AXIS WILL TRY AND ALIGN OVERHEAD FRIDAY NIGHT...AND COULD ALLOW
FOR SOME VERY COLD TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION. AIR MASS IS
MODERATING A LITTLE ALOFT...BUT IF WE CAN DECOUPLE THE COLDER
MAV/MET GUIDANCE LOOKS REASONABLE. FAVORED THOSE PIECES OF
GUIDANCE MORE FOR MIN TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS REMAIN IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
ON SATURDAY A VERY LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EAST AND CREST OVER THE REGION EARLY
SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING.

THE HIGH WILL PUSH EAST OF THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ON A TRIPLE POINT OF A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL LEAD TO A PERIOD OF SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY. AT THIS POINT THIS APPEARS TO BE A RATHER WEAK SYSTEM SO
NO MAJOR SNOW AMOUNTS ARE ANTICIPATED.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS
WILL RESULT IN A BRIEF RETURN TO COLDER TEMPERATURES. A MORE
ORGANIZED SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT
WEEK. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF WANT TO TAKE THIS SYSTEM WEST OF THE
AREA ALLOWING WARMER TEMPERATURES TO TRY TO MOVE OVER THE AREA.
THIS WOULD RESULT IN PRECIPITATION TYPE CHALLENGES OVER SOUTHERN
AREAS. AS THIS IS STILL ALMOST A WEEK AWAY IT WOULD NOT BE TOO
SURPRISING IF MODELS TREND COLDER AS WE GET CLOSER AND THAT WILL
BE SOMETHING THAT NEEDS TO BE MONITORED.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR TO PREVAIL THRU FRIDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL
BRING A PERIOD OF SNOW WITH MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT.
VFR CONDITIONS RETURN MONDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...COLD TEMPERATURES AND LINGERING BREEZE WILL KEEP
MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY IN THE FORECAST THRU THE OVERNIGHT.
ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED. FOR SEAS...NOTED THE SWAN MODEL
GUIDANCE WAS RUNNING TOO HIGH TODAY. OPTED FOR THE WNA4 AND ITS
COARSER RESOLUTION AS A RESULT.

LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RETURN MONDAY AND TUESDAY. EXPECT WINDS AND WAVES TO
REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS...ALTHOUGH WINDS COULD ROACH SCA LEVELS
LATE MONDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM UPDATE...KIMBLE
SHORT TERM...LEGRO
LONG TERM...LULOFS
AVIATION...LEGRO/LULOFS
MARINE...LEGRO/LULOFS




000
FXUS61 KGYX 270124
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
824 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK WELL TO OUR SOUTH LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH SATURDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION ON SUNDAY BEFORE SHIFTING
OFFSHORE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH
FROM THE WEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL CROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY
DRAGGING A TRAILING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST MONDAY NIGHT AND WILL CREST OVER THE
AREA ON TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE EAST COAST TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
830PM UPDATE...
COOL DRY AIR PERSISTS ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING... WITH LIGHT
WINDS LEADING TO A FAIRLY COLD NIGHT. HAVE ONLY MADE A FEW MINOR
MODIFICATIONS TO OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR
A FEW LOCAL COLD SPOTS. OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE
NEEDED TO THE GOING FORECAST.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
OVERNIGHT LOTS OF HIGH...THIN OVERCAST WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. DESPITE COLD FRONT SAGGING SOUTH TOWARDS THE
AREA...THE OVERCAST OR PARTIAL OVERCAST WILL LIMIT COOLING
SOMEWHAT. BEST CHANCE TO CLEAR OUT WILL BE THE NORTHERN
VALLEYS...WHERE SURFACE RIDGING WILL TRY TO NOSE IN FIRST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BRANCH INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL KEEP
WEATHER ON THE QUIET SIDE. CONTINUED CLEARING...COLDER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AND LIGHT WINDS WILL BE THE RULE. RIDGE
AXIS WILL TRY AND ALIGN OVERHEAD FRIDAY NIGHT...AND COULD ALLOW
FOR SOME VERY COLD TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION. AIR MASS IS
MODERATING A LITTLE ALOFT...BUT IF WE CAN DECOUPLE THE COLDER
MAV/MET GUIDANCE LOOKS REASONABLE. FAVORED THOSE PIECES OF
GUIDANCE MORE FOR MIN TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS REMAIN IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
ON SATURDAY A VERY LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EAST AND CREST OVER THE REGION EARLY
SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING.

THE HIGH WILL PUSH EAST OF THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ON A TRIPLE POINT OF A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL LEAD TO A PERIOD OF SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY. AT THIS POINT THIS APPEARS TO BE A RATHER WEAK SYSTEM SO
NO MAJOR SNOW AMOUNTS ARE ANTICIPATED.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS
WILL RESULT IN A BRIEF RETURN TO COLDER TEMPERATURES. A MORE
ORGANIZED SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT
WEEK. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF WANT TO TAKE THIS SYSTEM WEST OF THE
AREA ALLOWING WARMER TEMPERATURES TO TRY TO MOVE OVER THE AREA.
THIS WOULD RESULT IN PRECIPITATION TYPE CHALLENGES OVER SOUTHERN
AREAS. AS THIS IS STILL ALMOST A WEEK AWAY IT WOULD NOT BE TOO
SURPRISING IF MODELS TREND COLDER AS WE GET CLOSER AND THAT WILL
BE SOMETHING THAT NEEDS TO BE MONITORED.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR TO PREVAIL THRU FRIDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL
BRING A PERIOD OF SNOW WITH MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT.
VFR CONDITIONS RETURN MONDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...COLD TEMPERATURES AND LINGERING BREEZE WILL KEEP
MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY IN THE FORECAST THRU THE OVERNIGHT.
ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED. FOR SEAS...NOTED THE SWAN MODEL
GUIDANCE WAS RUNNING TOO HIGH TODAY. OPTED FOR THE WNA4 AND ITS
COARSER RESOLUTION AS A RESULT.

LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RETURN MONDAY AND TUESDAY. EXPECT WINDS AND WAVES TO
REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS...ALTHOUGH WINDS COULD ROACH SCA LEVELS
LATE MONDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM UPDATE...KIMBLE
SHORT TERM...LEGRO
LONG TERM...LULOFS
AVIATION...LEGRO/LULOFS
MARINE...LEGRO/LULOFS



000
FXUS61 KCAR 270014
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
714 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPDATE...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK EAST OF NOVA SCOTIA TONIGHT WHILE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE REGION. EXPECT AN AREA OF MOSTLY
MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. CLOUD COVER
WILL BE MOST EXTENSIVE ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA...WITH LESSER CLOUD COVER TO THE NORTH. LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE EXTENT OF CLOUD
COVER. GENERALLY EXPECT LOWS RANGING FROM 10 TO 15 BELOW ZERO
NORTH...TO AROUND ZERO INTERIOR DOWNEAST WITH SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
ZERO ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADJUST
FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS ALONG WITH EXPECTED OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES
AND CLOUD COVER.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
FRIDAY WILL BE SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY AND COLD AS WE REMAIN UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH WHICH WILL BE APPROACHING THE EAST
COAST.
&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TRANQUIL WEATHER THIS WEEKEND WITH A MODERATING AIR MASS. STRONG
SFC HIGH PRES OVER THE MIDWEST AND OHIO VALLEY AT 00Z SAT WILL
SLOWLY MOVE EAST AND OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST SUN AFTERNOON.
THE CWA WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF THE HIGH WITH W/SW FLOW.
FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT NIGHT WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR WITH STRONG
INVERSIONS FORMING...ESPECIALLY FRI NIGHT WHEN LOWS WILL LIKELY
DROP TO 20 BELOW OR LOWER IN THE NORMAL COLD SPOTS IN THE NW
VALLEYS. ALL AREAS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE IMMEDIATE SHORELINE
WILL DROP BELOW ZERO. HIGHS SAT WILL RECOVER WITH A FULL DAY OF
SUNSHINE INTO THE TEENS ACROSS THE CROWN OF MAINE AND INTO THE MID
20S ALONG THE COAST. A MILDER AIR MASS AND INCREASED W/SW FLOW
MEANS SAT NIGHT WILL NOT BE AS COLD...BUT IT WILL STILL BE WELL
BELOW ZERO IN MOST VALLEYS. REALLY LIKED THE MID CREWS LOW TEMPS
AND MADE NO ADJUSTMENTS TO THEM. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
SUN WITH HIGHS REBOUNDING BACK INTO THE LOW 20S ACROSS FAR
NORTHERN MAINE TO NEAR 30 ALONG THE COAST.
&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A NORTHERN BRANCH SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE
WEST SUN NIGHT WITH A SFC LOW TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. THE LOW
WILL LIKELY RE-DEVELOP IN THE GULF OF MAINE AND PUSH INTO THE
MARITIMES MON MORNING. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW TO
DOWN EAST MAINE WITH AMOUNTS TO DROP OFF TO THE NORTH. WHETHER
THERE IS LITTLE/OR NO SNOW IN THE FAR NORTH REMAINS TO BE
SEEN...BUT FAR NORTHERN MAINE AND ESPECIALLY THE ST JOHN VALLEY
MAY ONCE AGAIN BE LEFT HIGH AND DRY. THE BEST CHANCE OF ADVISORY
LEVEL SNOWFALL WILL BE ACROSS THE DOWN EAST REGION. IT IS A FAST
MOVING SYSTEM IN A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN ALOFT SO AT THIS TIME IT
APPEARS UNLIKELY TO BE A WARNING LEVEL EVENT. IN THE WAKE OF THIS
LOW ANOTHER RIDGE BUILDS TOWARD NEW ENGLAND MON NIGHT INTO TUE.
THE AIR MASS IS NOT ALL THAT COLD IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW...BUT
TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL. ANOTHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
AFFECT THE REGION TUE NIGHT INTO WED...BUT THERE IS SIGNIFICANT
MODEL AND ENSEMBLE SPREAD WITH REGARDS TO TIMING AND POSITION
DETAILS. YET ANOTHER SYSTEM MAY AFFECT THE AREA TOWARD THE END OF
THE WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY.

SHORT TERM: VFR THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  CONDITIONS LIKELY TO LOWER TO
IFR IN SNOW AT THE DOWN EAST TERMINALS SUN NIGHT INTO MON. IT IS
STILL UNCERTAIN HOW MUCH IF ANY SNOW WILL REACH THE NORTHERN
TERMINALS...BUT AT THIS TIME WOULD EXPECT A PERIOD OF AT LEAST
MVFR IN LIGHT SNOW. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO MOSTLY VFR MON
NIGHT INTO TUE.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FOR MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY.

SHORT TERM: CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
THROUGH SUNDAY.  A PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS LIKELY
SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY. DEPENDING ON HOW RAPIDLY A LOW INTENSIFIES AS
IT PULLS WAY FROM THE AREA MONDAY A BRIEF PERIOD OF GALES WILL BE
POSSIBLE. ANOTHER FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED
FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...NORCROSS/BLOOMER
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM...CB
AVIATION...NORCROSS/CB
MARINE...NORCROSS/CB



000
FXUS61 KCAR 270014
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
714 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPDATE...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK EAST OF NOVA SCOTIA TONIGHT WHILE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE REGION. EXPECT AN AREA OF MOSTLY
MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. CLOUD COVER
WILL BE MOST EXTENSIVE ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA...WITH LESSER CLOUD COVER TO THE NORTH. LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE EXTENT OF CLOUD
COVER. GENERALLY EXPECT LOWS RANGING FROM 10 TO 15 BELOW ZERO
NORTH...TO AROUND ZERO INTERIOR DOWNEAST WITH SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
ZERO ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADJUST
FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS ALONG WITH EXPECTED OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES
AND CLOUD COVER.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
FRIDAY WILL BE SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY AND COLD AS WE REMAIN UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH WHICH WILL BE APPROACHING THE EAST
COAST.
&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TRANQUIL WEATHER THIS WEEKEND WITH A MODERATING AIR MASS. STRONG
SFC HIGH PRES OVER THE MIDWEST AND OHIO VALLEY AT 00Z SAT WILL
SLOWLY MOVE EAST AND OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST SUN AFTERNOON.
THE CWA WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF THE HIGH WITH W/SW FLOW.
FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT NIGHT WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR WITH STRONG
INVERSIONS FORMING...ESPECIALLY FRI NIGHT WHEN LOWS WILL LIKELY
DROP TO 20 BELOW OR LOWER IN THE NORMAL COLD SPOTS IN THE NW
VALLEYS. ALL AREAS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE IMMEDIATE SHORELINE
WILL DROP BELOW ZERO. HIGHS SAT WILL RECOVER WITH A FULL DAY OF
SUNSHINE INTO THE TEENS ACROSS THE CROWN OF MAINE AND INTO THE MID
20S ALONG THE COAST. A MILDER AIR MASS AND INCREASED W/SW FLOW
MEANS SAT NIGHT WILL NOT BE AS COLD...BUT IT WILL STILL BE WELL
BELOW ZERO IN MOST VALLEYS. REALLY LIKED THE MID CREWS LOW TEMPS
AND MADE NO ADJUSTMENTS TO THEM. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
SUN WITH HIGHS REBOUNDING BACK INTO THE LOW 20S ACROSS FAR
NORTHERN MAINE TO NEAR 30 ALONG THE COAST.
&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A NORTHERN BRANCH SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE
WEST SUN NIGHT WITH A SFC LOW TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. THE LOW
WILL LIKELY RE-DEVELOP IN THE GULF OF MAINE AND PUSH INTO THE
MARITIMES MON MORNING. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW TO
DOWN EAST MAINE WITH AMOUNTS TO DROP OFF TO THE NORTH. WHETHER
THERE IS LITTLE/OR NO SNOW IN THE FAR NORTH REMAINS TO BE
SEEN...BUT FAR NORTHERN MAINE AND ESPECIALLY THE ST JOHN VALLEY
MAY ONCE AGAIN BE LEFT HIGH AND DRY. THE BEST CHANCE OF ADVISORY
LEVEL SNOWFALL WILL BE ACROSS THE DOWN EAST REGION. IT IS A FAST
MOVING SYSTEM IN A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN ALOFT SO AT THIS TIME IT
APPEARS UNLIKELY TO BE A WARNING LEVEL EVENT. IN THE WAKE OF THIS
LOW ANOTHER RIDGE BUILDS TOWARD NEW ENGLAND MON NIGHT INTO TUE.
THE AIR MASS IS NOT ALL THAT COLD IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW...BUT
TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL. ANOTHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
AFFECT THE REGION TUE NIGHT INTO WED...BUT THERE IS SIGNIFICANT
MODEL AND ENSEMBLE SPREAD WITH REGARDS TO TIMING AND POSITION
DETAILS. YET ANOTHER SYSTEM MAY AFFECT THE AREA TOWARD THE END OF
THE WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY.

SHORT TERM: VFR THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  CONDITIONS LIKELY TO LOWER TO
IFR IN SNOW AT THE DOWN EAST TERMINALS SUN NIGHT INTO MON. IT IS
STILL UNCERTAIN HOW MUCH IF ANY SNOW WILL REACH THE NORTHERN
TERMINALS...BUT AT THIS TIME WOULD EXPECT A PERIOD OF AT LEAST
MVFR IN LIGHT SNOW. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO MOSTLY VFR MON
NIGHT INTO TUE.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FOR MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY.

SHORT TERM: CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
THROUGH SUNDAY.  A PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS LIKELY
SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY. DEPENDING ON HOW RAPIDLY A LOW INTENSIFIES AS
IT PULLS WAY FROM THE AREA MONDAY A BRIEF PERIOD OF GALES WILL BE
POSSIBLE. ANOTHER FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED
FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...NORCROSS/BLOOMER
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM...CB
AVIATION...NORCROSS/CB
MARINE...NORCROSS/CB




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