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000
FXUS61 KCAR 282344
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
644 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT AND CREST
OVER THE AREA ON THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE
WEST THURSDAY NIGHT AND TRACK THROUGH THE GULF OF MAINE ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
630 PM UPDATE: BASED ON LATEST RADAR REF AND SAT IR IMAGERY...
WE ADVCG SN SHWR EXIT AND CLRG ABOUT 2 TO 3 HRS FASTER THIS EVE
THAN THE PREV FCST UPDATE. ALSO...MODIFIED FCST LOWS TNGT FOR
COLDER VLY TEMPS...LOWERING WINDS TO NEAR CALM LATE TNGT AS SFC HI
PRES FROM QB APCHS. FCST HRLY TEMPS HAD TO BE MODIFIED FROM OBSVD
6 PM OBS...TO NEW POSTED LOWS AT 7 AM...AND TO POSTED FCST HI
TEMPS ON THU.

ORGNL DISC: ANY REMNANT BANDS OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS FROM OUR
DEPARTING STORM WILL DISSIPATE EARLY TONIGHT. SKIES WILL THEN
CLEAR AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER. WITH
DEEP FRESH SNOW ON THE GROUND AND WINDS BECOMING NEARLY CALM LATE
TONIGHT, WENT A FEW DEGREES BELOW GUIDANCE IN THE NORMALLY COLDER
VALLEYS WHERE SOME SPOTS MAY REACH 10 BELOW. THURSDAY WILL THEN
BRING A TRANQUIL AND DRY DAY BETWEEN STORMS WITH HIGH PRESSURE
CRESTING OVER THE AREA AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. SOME HIGH CLOUDS
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE IN THE DAY. TEMPS FRIDAY WILL BE
SEASONABLY COLD RANGING FROM THE MID 20S DOWNEAST TO THE LOW 20S
OVER THE NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...SO TEMPERATURES
WILL BE STEADY OR RISING AFTER AN INITIAL DROP OFF IN THE EVENING.
TEMPS MIGHT BE A BIT LOWER THAN FORECAST FOR BANGOR AND DOWN EAST
IF THE CIRRUS IS NOT TOO THICK DURING THE EVENING. SNOW WILL BREAK
OUT LATE IN THE NIGHT FOR WESTERN ZONES AS A NORTHERN STREAM
CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND INTO
QUEBEC. THIS SYSTEM WILL NOT HAVE A LOT OF MOISTURE INITIALLY BUT
AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE EAST COAST...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL
DEEPEN AND SHARPEN WITH CYCLOGENESIS OCCURRING EAST OF CAPE COD.
AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL EXTEND NORTHWARD INTO MAINE AND SLOWLY
MOVE ACROSS THE STATE ON FRIDAY. ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL START
FEEDING NORTHWARD FROM THE LOW ALONG THE INVERTED TROUGH DURING
FRIDAY. THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST SNOW RATIOS COULD BE QUITE HIGH
ALONG THIS INVERTED TROUGH.  THE UPPER TROUGH WILL DEVELOP A
NEGATIVE TILT AND BECOME A CUT-OFF LOW DURING FRIDAY EVENING. A
STRONG JET IS EXPECTED ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH THAT
WILL HELP ENSURE A CUT-OFF DEVELOPS. THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE CUT-
OFF UPPER LOW WILL SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESS AND ENSURE MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO WRAP AROUND THE LOW INTO THE FORECAST AREA DURING FRIDAY
NIGHT. THE CUT-OFF WILL SLOWLY TRACK FROM THE CAPE COD AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT TOWARDS NOVA SCOTIA BY MIDDAY SATURDAY. AS THE SURFACE LOW
DEEPENS FRIDAY NIGHT ON ITS WAY TO NOVA SCOTIA...THE INVERTED
TROUGH OVER MAINE WILL TRANSITION TO MORE OF A TROWAL STRUCTURE
WITH HEAVIER SNOW BANDS LIKELY IN THE DEFORMATION ZONE. BOTH
FRIDAY`S SNOW RATIOS AND BANDING FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING COULD CAUSE EXPECTED SNOW AMOUNTS TO BE INCREASED OVER THE
NEXT FEW FORECAST CYCLES. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY
SATURDAY AS THE LOW MOVES INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND
NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOP. GUSTS TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WHICH WILL
LIKELY CAUSE SUBSTANTIAL BLOWING AND DRIFTING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
INTENSE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MARITIMES SATURDAY NIGHT WILL SLOWLY
MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILD IN FROM THE WEST.
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY. LOW
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO PASS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF NEW ENGLAND
MONDAY. SNOW IS POSSIBLE FROM THIS SYSTEM DEPENDING ON THE EXACT
TRACK AND TIMING OF THE SYSTEM. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE EAST COAST LATE TUESDAY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL
APPROACH THE STATE FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

SHORT TERM: VFR THURSDAY NIGHT. MVFR CIGS WILL ROLL IN LATE NIGHT.
IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY MORNING. IFR WILL BE
THE PREDOMINANT CONDITION INTO SATURDAY MORNING...BUT LIFR
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY. IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: AN SCA WILL BE UP FOR THE WATERS TONIGHT AS NORTH WINDS
CONTINUE GUSTING UP TO 25 KT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER.

SHORT TERM: AN SCA MAY BE REQUIRED FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SCA
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN LATER FRIDAY NIGHT AND TRANSITION TO GALE
ON SATURDAY. A LIKELY SEQUENCE OF HEADLINES WILL PROBABLY BE A
GALE WATCH FOLLOWED BY A GALE WARNING RATHER THAN ISSUING AN SCA
ON FRIDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
     MORNING FOR MEZ002-005-006-011-017-030-032.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
     MORNING FOR MEZ001-003-004-010-015-016-029-031.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...MCW
LONG TERM...MIGNONE
AVIATION...VJN/MCW
MARINE...VJN/MCW



000
FXUS61 KCAR 282031
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
331 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND CREST OVER
THE AREA ON THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST
THURSDAY NIGHT AND TRACK THROUGH THE GULF OF MAINE ON FRIDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ANY REMNANT BANDS OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS FROM OUR DEPARTING STORM
WILL DISSIPATE EARLY TONIGHT. SKIES WILL THEN CLEAR AND WINDS
WILL DIMINISH AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER. WITH DEEP FRESH SNOW
ON THE GROUND AND WINDS BECOMING NEARLY CALM LATE TONIGHT, WENT A
FEW DEGREES BELOW GUIDANCE IN THE NORMALLY COLDER VALLEYS WHERE
SOME SPOTS MAY REACH 10 BELOW. THURSDAY WILL THEN BRING A
TRANQUIL AND DRY DAY BETWEEN STORMS WITH HIGH PRESSURE CRESTING
OVER THE AREA AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN
TO INCREASE LATE IN THE DAY. TEMPS FRIDAY WILL BE SEASONABLY COLD
RANGING FROM THE MID 20S DOWNEAST TO THE LOW 20S OVER THE NORTH.
&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...SO TEMPERATURES
WILL BE STEADY OR RISING AFTER AN INITIAL DROP OFF IN THE EVENING.
TEMPS MIGHT BE A BIT LOWER THAN FORECAST FOR BANGOR AND DOWN EAST
IF THE CIRRUS IS NOT TOO THICK DURING THE EVENING. SNOW WILL BREAK
OUT LATE IN THE NIGHT FOR WESTERN ZONES AS A NORTHERN STREAM
CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND INTO
QUEBEC. THIS SYSTEM WILL NOT HAVE A LOT OF MOISTURE INITIALLY BUT
AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE EAST COAST...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL
DEEPEN AND SHARPEN WITH CYCLOGENESIS OCCURRING EAST OF CAPE COD.
AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL EXTEND NORTHWARD INTO MAINE AND SLOWLY
MOVE ACROSS THE STATE ON FRIDAY. ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL START
FEEDING NORTHWARD FROM THE LOW ALONG THE INVERTED TROUGH DURING
FRIDAY. THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST SNOW RATIOS COULD BE QUITE HIGH
ALONG THIS INVERTED TROUGH.  THE UPPER TROUGH WILL DEVELOP A
NEGATIVE TILT AND BECOME A CUT-OFF LOW DURING FRIDAY EVENING. A
STRONG JET IS EXPECTED ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH THAT
WILL HELP ENSURE A CUT-OFF DEVELOPS. THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE CUT-
OFF UPPER LOW WILL SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESS AND ENSURE MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO WRAP AROUND THE LOW INTO THE FORECAST AREA DURING FRIDAY
NIGHT. THE CUT-OFF WILL SLOWLY TRACK FROM THE CAPE COD AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT TOWARDS NOVA SCOTIA BY MIDDAY SATURDAY. AS THE SURFACE LOW
DEEPENS FRIDAY NIGHT ON ITS WAY TO NOVA SCOTIA...THE INVERTED
TROUGH OVER MAINE WILL TRANSITION TO MORE OF A TROWAL STRUCTURE
WITH HEAVIER SNOW BANDS LIKELY IN THE DEFORMATION ZONE. BOTH
FRIDAY`S SNOW RATIOS AND BANDING FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING COULD CAUSE EXPECTED SNOW AMOUNTS TO BE INCREASED OVER THE
NEXT FEW FORECAST CYCLES. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY
SATURDAY AS THE LOW MOVES INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND
NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOP. GUSTS TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WHICH WILL
LIKELY CAUSE SUBSTANTIAL BLOWING AND DRIFTING.
&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
INTENSE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MARITIMES SATURDAY NIGHT WILL SLOWLY
MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILD IN FROM THE WEST.
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY. LOW
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO PASS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF NEW ENGLAND
MONDAY. SNOW IS POSSIBLE FROM THIS SYSTEM DEPENDING ON THE EXACT
TRACK AND TIMING OF THE SYSTEM. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE EAST COAST LATE TUESDAY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL
APPROACH THE STATE FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

SHORT TERM: VFR THURSDAY NIGHT. MVFR CIGS WILL ROLL IN LATE NIGHT.
IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY MORNING. IFR WILL BE
THE PREDOMINANT CONDITION INTO SATURDAY MORNING...BUT LIFR
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY. IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: AN SCA WILL BE UP FOR THE WATERS TONIGHT AS NORTH WINDS
CONTINUE GUSTING UP TO 25 KT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER.

SHORT TERM: AN SCA MAY BE REQUIRED FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SCA
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN LATER FRIDAY NIGHT AND TRANSITION TO GALE
ON SATURDAY. A LIKELY SEQUENCE OF HEADLINES WILL PROBABLY BE A
GALE WATCH FOLLOWED BY A GALE WARNING RATHER THAN ISSUING AN SCA
ON FRIDAY.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
     MORNING FOR MEZ002-005-006-011-017-030-032.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
     MORNING FOR MEZ001-003-004-010-015-016-029-031.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ050>052.
&&
$$

NEAR TERM...BLOOMER
SHORT TERM...MCW
LONG TERM...MIGNONE
AVIATION...BLOOMER/MCW
MARINE...BLOOMER/MCW



  [top]

000
FXUS61 KGYX 282030
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
330 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ENTER THE REGION TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. ANOTHER
STORM SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING SNOWFALL TO THE AREA LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW OVER THE
WEEKEND...WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVING SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND ON
MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MESOSCALE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW ANY LEFTOVER LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
WILL EXIT THE MIDCOAST REGION OF MAINE LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...CLEAR SKIES...DIMINISHING WINDS AND A FRESH SNOWPACK
WILL LEAD TO RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT. JUST ABOUT ALL
COMMUNITIES WILL BE AT OR BELOW ZERO AWAY FROM THE COAST...WITH
PERHAPS A FEW SHORELINE TOWNS REMAINING ABOVE ZERO FOR MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
A SHORT WAVE WILL BE DIGGING SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA ON THURSDAY.
OVERALL...THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN POSITIVELY TILTED
DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY. THEREAFTER...THE FLOW WILL
BECOME NEUTRALLY TILTED BY LATE IN THE DAY THURSDAY. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR GRADUAL CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AS THE SYSTEM
PROGRESSES EASTWARD.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONABLE COOL ON THURSDAY. DEW POINTS
WILL REMAIN VERY LOW AS DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE ERN BLOCK...PART OF THE CONTINUAL +PNA PATTER AT 500MB HAS SET
UP TO PRODUCE A STEADY WAVE GENERATOR OVER FAR WRN CANADA...WHICH
WILL SEND WAVES THRU THE BASE OF THE COLD AND LARGE SCALE TROUGH
OVER ERN NOAM. LOOK FOR A COLD AND SOMEWHAT ACTIVE PATTERN INTO
NEXT WEEK.

FIRST SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION THU NIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT AS
CLIPPER SYSTEM TRACKS OF THE GREAT LAKES AND ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND...REACHING THE GULF OF ME FRIDAY. LIGHT SNOW BREAKS OUT
FROM W TO E THU NIGHT ACROSS THE CWA. AS A REINFORCING SHOT OF
UPPER LVL ENERGY DIVES INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH FRIDAY...500MB
LOW TILTS NEGATIVE AND STARTS CLOSING OFF. THIS WILL ALLOW SFC LOW
TO INTENSIFY DURING THE DAY FRI INTO FRI NIGHT. THIS SHOULD BEGIN
TO ENHANCE SNOW AS MID-LVL DEFORMATION ENHANCES AND BANDING
DEVELOPS. LOOKS LIKE THE LOW WILL BE TOO FAR E FOR THE HEAVIER
SNOWS TO PUSH BACK W INTO NH...BUT THEY WILL LKLY MOVE INTO PARTS
OF CENTRAL AND MAYBE WRN ME FRI AFT AND EVE. A WATCH HAS BEEN
ISSUED TO COVER THE POTENTIAL FOR BANDING IN ME ZONES. SEVERAL
HOURS OF HEAVY SNOW IS POSSIBLE WITH 6 TO PERHAPS AS HIGH AS 10
INCHES IN A FEW SPOTS. IN NH...WE COULD SEE ADVISORY LEVELS SNOWS
LATE THU NIGHT INTO FRI.

THE LOW SHIFTS E BY SAT MORNING AND THE MID-UPPER LVL SYSTEM
BEGINS TO FILL...SO ALTHOUGH SOME -SN MAY LINGER INTO SAT
MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN ERN ZONES...EXPECT NW FLOW TO TAKE OVER
AND CAA ADVECTION TO BEGIN IN EARNEST WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HIGHS
DROPPING BACK INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS.

COLD AIR SETTLES BACK IN SAT NIGHT AND SUN...ALTHOUGH WEAK HIGH
PRES WILL KEEP THINGS DRY. OPERATIONAL 12Z GFS AND EURO NOW AGREE
IN KEEPING SFC LOW WELL OFFSHORE SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WHILE THE
CMC DEVELOPS FAIRLY POTENT COASTAL LOW. HOWEVER...ENSEMBLE SPREADS
REMAIN QUITE HIGH WHEN IT COMES TO SFC LOW POSITION...SO HAVE
STAYED THE COURSE WITH THE CHC POPS FOR THIS PERIOD. COLD AIR WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH PERHAPS SOME MODERATION BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH DIMINISHING
WINDS.

LONG TERM...IFR CONDS OR LOWER LKLY DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY AT
ALL TERMINALS. SOME IMPROVEMENT POSSIBLE AT NH SITES FRI
NIGHT...BUT WILL PROB FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS LINGER IN ME THRU
FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH IMPROVEMENT TO VFR AT ALL TERMINALS ON SAT.
HOWEVER...GUSTY NW WINDS WILL DEVELOP ON SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY FROM THE NORTHWEST
OVER THE OUTER WATERS AND THE PENOBSCOT BAY TONIGHT...SUFFICIENT
ENOUGH FOR SCAS. SEAS ABOVE 5 FEET AS WELL.

LONG TERM...GALES WILL LKLY BE NEEDED IN NW FLOW FRI NIGHT INTO
SAT.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE FRIDAY
     NIGHT FOR MEZ007>009-012>014-018>028.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ150>152-
     154.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KGYX 281727
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1227 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN INTENSE OCEAN STORM WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN FOLLOW FOR LATE
TODAY INTO THURSDAY. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING A
GENERAL SNOWFALL TO THE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH ANOTHER
STORM HEADING TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS. SIGNIFICANT BREAKS
IN THE CLOUD COVER OVER NEW HAMPSHIRE AND WESTERN MAINE SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MIGRATE EAST WITH TIME. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY CLIMB OUT OF THE TEENS...EVENTUALLY REACHING THE MID 20S
OVER SOUTHERN SECTIONS.

ALREADY TURNING ATTENTION TO NEXT SYSTEM WHICH WILL PRODUCE MORE
SNOW ACROSS THE REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY EVENING.
MOST OF THE SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION WILL BE OVER EASTERN AREAS AS
LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES OVER THE EASTERNMOST PORTIONS OF THE GULF
OF MAINE FRIDAY. THERE WILL BE RAPID CYCLOGENESIS FRIDAY NIGHT
OVER THE MARITIMES.

PREV DISC...
625 AM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO INGEST CURRENT MESONET INTO 1ST
PERIOD GRIDS.

PREV DISC...
AT 07Z...A 990 MILLIBAR OCEAN LOW WAS CENTERED WELL EAST OF
PORTSMOUTH. NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR MOSAIC SHOWED A
WEAKENING BAND OF LIGHT...AND OCCASIONALLY MODERATE SNOW ACROSS
MUCH OF WESTERN MAINE. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH
AND DISSIPATE THIS MORNING AS THE OCEAN STORM CONTINUES TO SLIDE
FURTHER OFFSHORE AND WEAKEN. WITH DECREASING PRECIPITATION AND
WINDS...WILL ALLOW THE REMAINING WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES TO BE
DROPPED WITH THE NEW MORNING PACKAGE. WE`LL SEE GRADUAL CLEARING
FROM WEST TO EAST BY AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE HIGH CURRENTLY
DRAPED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES BUILDS EASTWARD INTO NEW ENGLAND.
HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM TEENS IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE 20S
ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
CLEAR AND COLD TONIGHT UNDER THE BUILDING RIDGE WITH FRESH
SNOWPACK AND DECOUPLING SURFACE WINDS. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM NEAR
TEN BELOW IN THE MOUNTAINS TO AROUND ZERO NEAR THE COAST AND THE
URBAN CENTERS OF SOUTHEASTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE.

AFTER A CHILLY START THURSDAY MORNING...SUNSHINE AND A DEVELOPING
RETURN FLOW BEHIND THE DEPARTING HIGH WILL BOOST AFTERNOON HIGHS
INTO THE 20S...WITH A FEW 30 DEGREE READINGS POSSIBLE OVER
SEACOAST NEW HAMPSHIRE. WE`LL SEE INCREASING CLOUDS OVER WESTERN
SECTIONS LATE IN ADVANCE OF OUR NEXT STORM SYSTEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A LONG WAVE TROUGH IS BECOMING ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND OHIO VALLEY. THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF STRONG SHORT WAVES WILL
DIG INTO THE BASE OF THE LONG WAVE TROF AND BECOME NEGATIVELY
TILTED THURSDAY NIGHT DEVELOPING A SURFACE AND UPPER LOW SOME
ALONG THE NORTHEAST COAST FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE EXITIING
INTO THE MARITIMES BY SATURDAY MORNING. MODELS HAVE COME TOGETHER
AND GENERALLY AGREE ON SCENERIO BUT SOMEWHAT DIFFERENT ON
INTENSITIES. EXPECT LIGHT SNOW TO SPREAD ACROSS NH LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT AND THEN INTO ME BY FRIDAY MORNING. ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
LIGHT. BY LATER IN THE DAY THE STORM DEEPENS OFF THE COAST AND
SOME MORE SIGNIFICANT WRAPAROUND SNOW MAY SPREAD FAR ENOUGH WEST
TO REACH THE MIDCOAST. THE SYSTEM IS PROGRESSIVE SO WILL NOT HAVE
TOO MUCH TIME TO PICK UP A LOT OF MOISTURE. IT DOES APPEAR THAT
SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM AND IT
WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED.

THE SYSTEM EXITS INTO THE MARITIMES BY SATURDAY MORNING WITH
CLEARING AND STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION ON GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.
SUNDAY WILL BE PLEASANT WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION.

ON MONDAY A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM MAY BE IN THE MAKING AS A
SYSTEM MOVING EAST FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ALLOWING THE GULF TO
OPEN AND THEN TRIES TO PHASE WITH ENERGY FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM.
A GOOD DEAL OF QPF WILL BE WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE TRACK WILL BE
CRITICAL AS USUAL. WE WILL BE WATCHING HOW THE MODELS HANDLE THE
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS WITH THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS FOR CLARITY.

OVERALL STAYED CLOSE TO THE SUPERBLEND MODELS FOR THE EXTENDED
GRIDS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...LINGERING IFR AND MVFR EARLY IN SNOW AND BLOWING
SNOW...BECOMING VFR THROUGHOUT.

LONG TERM...CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND
MOSTLY IFR FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT IN SNOW. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO
VFR OVER THE WEEKEND AS COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION
WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...A FREEZING SPRAY ADV IS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS MORNING.
GALES REMAIN UP FOR THE WATERS THIS MORNING...THEN SMALL CRAFT
EXPECTED FOR THE BALANCE OF TODAY.

LONG TERM...GALE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT ON NORTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ151-
     153.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR ANZ150-152-
     154.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KGYX 281727
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1227 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN INTENSE OCEAN STORM WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN FOLLOW FOR LATE
TODAY INTO THURSDAY. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING A
GENERAL SNOWFALL TO THE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH ANOTHER
STORM HEADING TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS. SIGNIFICANT BREAKS
IN THE CLOUD COVER OVER NEW HAMPSHIRE AND WESTERN MAINE SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MIGRATE EAST WITH TIME. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY CLIMB OUT OF THE TEENS...EVENTUALLY REACHING THE MID 20S
OVER SOUTHERN SECTIONS.

ALREADY TURNING ATTENTION TO NEXT SYSTEM WHICH WILL PRODUCE MORE
SNOW ACROSS THE REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY EVENING.
MOST OF THE SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION WILL BE OVER EASTERN AREAS AS
LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES OVER THE EASTERNMOST PORTIONS OF THE GULF
OF MAINE FRIDAY. THERE WILL BE RAPID CYCLOGENESIS FRIDAY NIGHT
OVER THE MARITIMES.

PREV DISC...
625 AM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO INGEST CURRENT MESONET INTO 1ST
PERIOD GRIDS.

PREV DISC...
AT 07Z...A 990 MILLIBAR OCEAN LOW WAS CENTERED WELL EAST OF
PORTSMOUTH. NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR MOSAIC SHOWED A
WEAKENING BAND OF LIGHT...AND OCCASIONALLY MODERATE SNOW ACROSS
MUCH OF WESTERN MAINE. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH
AND DISSIPATE THIS MORNING AS THE OCEAN STORM CONTINUES TO SLIDE
FURTHER OFFSHORE AND WEAKEN. WITH DECREASING PRECIPITATION AND
WINDS...WILL ALLOW THE REMAINING WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES TO BE
DROPPED WITH THE NEW MORNING PACKAGE. WE`LL SEE GRADUAL CLEARING
FROM WEST TO EAST BY AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE HIGH CURRENTLY
DRAPED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES BUILDS EASTWARD INTO NEW ENGLAND.
HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM TEENS IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE 20S
ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
CLEAR AND COLD TONIGHT UNDER THE BUILDING RIDGE WITH FRESH
SNOWPACK AND DECOUPLING SURFACE WINDS. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM NEAR
TEN BELOW IN THE MOUNTAINS TO AROUND ZERO NEAR THE COAST AND THE
URBAN CENTERS OF SOUTHEASTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE.

AFTER A CHILLY START THURSDAY MORNING...SUNSHINE AND A DEVELOPING
RETURN FLOW BEHIND THE DEPARTING HIGH WILL BOOST AFTERNOON HIGHS
INTO THE 20S...WITH A FEW 30 DEGREE READINGS POSSIBLE OVER
SEACOAST NEW HAMPSHIRE. WE`LL SEE INCREASING CLOUDS OVER WESTERN
SECTIONS LATE IN ADVANCE OF OUR NEXT STORM SYSTEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A LONG WAVE TROUGH IS BECOMING ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND OHIO VALLEY. THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF STRONG SHORT WAVES WILL
DIG INTO THE BASE OF THE LONG WAVE TROF AND BECOME NEGATIVELY
TILTED THURSDAY NIGHT DEVELOPING A SURFACE AND UPPER LOW SOME
ALONG THE NORTHEAST COAST FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE EXITIING
INTO THE MARITIMES BY SATURDAY MORNING. MODELS HAVE COME TOGETHER
AND GENERALLY AGREE ON SCENERIO BUT SOMEWHAT DIFFERENT ON
INTENSITIES. EXPECT LIGHT SNOW TO SPREAD ACROSS NH LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT AND THEN INTO ME BY FRIDAY MORNING. ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
LIGHT. BY LATER IN THE DAY THE STORM DEEPENS OFF THE COAST AND
SOME MORE SIGNIFICANT WRAPAROUND SNOW MAY SPREAD FAR ENOUGH WEST
TO REACH THE MIDCOAST. THE SYSTEM IS PROGRESSIVE SO WILL NOT HAVE
TOO MUCH TIME TO PICK UP A LOT OF MOISTURE. IT DOES APPEAR THAT
SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM AND IT
WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED.

THE SYSTEM EXITS INTO THE MARITIMES BY SATURDAY MORNING WITH
CLEARING AND STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION ON GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.
SUNDAY WILL BE PLEASANT WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION.

ON MONDAY A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM MAY BE IN THE MAKING AS A
SYSTEM MOVING EAST FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ALLOWING THE GULF TO
OPEN AND THEN TRIES TO PHASE WITH ENERGY FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM.
A GOOD DEAL OF QPF WILL BE WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE TRACK WILL BE
CRITICAL AS USUAL. WE WILL BE WATCHING HOW THE MODELS HANDLE THE
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS WITH THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS FOR CLARITY.

OVERALL STAYED CLOSE TO THE SUPERBLEND MODELS FOR THE EXTENDED
GRIDS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...LINGERING IFR AND MVFR EARLY IN SNOW AND BLOWING
SNOW...BECOMING VFR THROUGHOUT.

LONG TERM...CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND
MOSTLY IFR FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT IN SNOW. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO
VFR OVER THE WEEKEND AS COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION
WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...A FREEZING SPRAY ADV IS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS MORNING.
GALES REMAIN UP FOR THE WATERS THIS MORNING...THEN SMALL CRAFT
EXPECTED FOR THE BALANCE OF TODAY.

LONG TERM...GALE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT ON NORTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ151-
     153.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR ANZ150-152-
     154.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KGYX 281727
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1227 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN INTENSE OCEAN STORM WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN FOLLOW FOR LATE
TODAY INTO THURSDAY. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING A
GENERAL SNOWFALL TO THE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH ANOTHER
STORM HEADING TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS. SIGNIFICANT BREAKS
IN THE CLOUD COVER OVER NEW HAMPSHIRE AND WESTERN MAINE SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MIGRATE EAST WITH TIME. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY CLIMB OUT OF THE TEENS...EVENTUALLY REACHING THE MID 20S
OVER SOUTHERN SECTIONS.

ALREADY TURNING ATTENTION TO NEXT SYSTEM WHICH WILL PRODUCE MORE
SNOW ACROSS THE REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY EVENING.
MOST OF THE SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION WILL BE OVER EASTERN AREAS AS
LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES OVER THE EASTERNMOST PORTIONS OF THE GULF
OF MAINE FRIDAY. THERE WILL BE RAPID CYCLOGENESIS FRIDAY NIGHT
OVER THE MARITIMES.

PREV DISC...
625 AM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO INGEST CURRENT MESONET INTO 1ST
PERIOD GRIDS.

PREV DISC...
AT 07Z...A 990 MILLIBAR OCEAN LOW WAS CENTERED WELL EAST OF
PORTSMOUTH. NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR MOSAIC SHOWED A
WEAKENING BAND OF LIGHT...AND OCCASIONALLY MODERATE SNOW ACROSS
MUCH OF WESTERN MAINE. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH
AND DISSIPATE THIS MORNING AS THE OCEAN STORM CONTINUES TO SLIDE
FURTHER OFFSHORE AND WEAKEN. WITH DECREASING PRECIPITATION AND
WINDS...WILL ALLOW THE REMAINING WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES TO BE
DROPPED WITH THE NEW MORNING PACKAGE. WE`LL SEE GRADUAL CLEARING
FROM WEST TO EAST BY AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE HIGH CURRENTLY
DRAPED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES BUILDS EASTWARD INTO NEW ENGLAND.
HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM TEENS IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE 20S
ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
CLEAR AND COLD TONIGHT UNDER THE BUILDING RIDGE WITH FRESH
SNOWPACK AND DECOUPLING SURFACE WINDS. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM NEAR
TEN BELOW IN THE MOUNTAINS TO AROUND ZERO NEAR THE COAST AND THE
URBAN CENTERS OF SOUTHEASTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE.

AFTER A CHILLY START THURSDAY MORNING...SUNSHINE AND A DEVELOPING
RETURN FLOW BEHIND THE DEPARTING HIGH WILL BOOST AFTERNOON HIGHS
INTO THE 20S...WITH A FEW 30 DEGREE READINGS POSSIBLE OVER
SEACOAST NEW HAMPSHIRE. WE`LL SEE INCREASING CLOUDS OVER WESTERN
SECTIONS LATE IN ADVANCE OF OUR NEXT STORM SYSTEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A LONG WAVE TROUGH IS BECOMING ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND OHIO VALLEY. THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF STRONG SHORT WAVES WILL
DIG INTO THE BASE OF THE LONG WAVE TROF AND BECOME NEGATIVELY
TILTED THURSDAY NIGHT DEVELOPING A SURFACE AND UPPER LOW SOME
ALONG THE NORTHEAST COAST FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE EXITIING
INTO THE MARITIMES BY SATURDAY MORNING. MODELS HAVE COME TOGETHER
AND GENERALLY AGREE ON SCENERIO BUT SOMEWHAT DIFFERENT ON
INTENSITIES. EXPECT LIGHT SNOW TO SPREAD ACROSS NH LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT AND THEN INTO ME BY FRIDAY MORNING. ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
LIGHT. BY LATER IN THE DAY THE STORM DEEPENS OFF THE COAST AND
SOME MORE SIGNIFICANT WRAPAROUND SNOW MAY SPREAD FAR ENOUGH WEST
TO REACH THE MIDCOAST. THE SYSTEM IS PROGRESSIVE SO WILL NOT HAVE
TOO MUCH TIME TO PICK UP A LOT OF MOISTURE. IT DOES APPEAR THAT
SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM AND IT
WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED.

THE SYSTEM EXITS INTO THE MARITIMES BY SATURDAY MORNING WITH
CLEARING AND STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION ON GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.
SUNDAY WILL BE PLEASANT WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION.

ON MONDAY A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM MAY BE IN THE MAKING AS A
SYSTEM MOVING EAST FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ALLOWING THE GULF TO
OPEN AND THEN TRIES TO PHASE WITH ENERGY FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM.
A GOOD DEAL OF QPF WILL BE WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE TRACK WILL BE
CRITICAL AS USUAL. WE WILL BE WATCHING HOW THE MODELS HANDLE THE
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS WITH THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS FOR CLARITY.

OVERALL STAYED CLOSE TO THE SUPERBLEND MODELS FOR THE EXTENDED
GRIDS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...LINGERING IFR AND MVFR EARLY IN SNOW AND BLOWING
SNOW...BECOMING VFR THROUGHOUT.

LONG TERM...CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND
MOSTLY IFR FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT IN SNOW. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO
VFR OVER THE WEEKEND AS COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION
WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...A FREEZING SPRAY ADV IS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS MORNING.
GALES REMAIN UP FOR THE WATERS THIS MORNING...THEN SMALL CRAFT
EXPECTED FOR THE BALANCE OF TODAY.

LONG TERM...GALE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT ON NORTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ151-
     153.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR ANZ150-152-
     154.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KGYX 281727
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1227 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN INTENSE OCEAN STORM WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN FOLLOW FOR LATE
TODAY INTO THURSDAY. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING A
GENERAL SNOWFALL TO THE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH ANOTHER
STORM HEADING TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS. SIGNIFICANT BREAKS
IN THE CLOUD COVER OVER NEW HAMPSHIRE AND WESTERN MAINE SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MIGRATE EAST WITH TIME. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY CLIMB OUT OF THE TEENS...EVENTUALLY REACHING THE MID 20S
OVER SOUTHERN SECTIONS.

ALREADY TURNING ATTENTION TO NEXT SYSTEM WHICH WILL PRODUCE MORE
SNOW ACROSS THE REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY EVENING.
MOST OF THE SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION WILL BE OVER EASTERN AREAS AS
LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES OVER THE EASTERNMOST PORTIONS OF THE GULF
OF MAINE FRIDAY. THERE WILL BE RAPID CYCLOGENESIS FRIDAY NIGHT
OVER THE MARITIMES.

PREV DISC...
625 AM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO INGEST CURRENT MESONET INTO 1ST
PERIOD GRIDS.

PREV DISC...
AT 07Z...A 990 MILLIBAR OCEAN LOW WAS CENTERED WELL EAST OF
PORTSMOUTH. NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR MOSAIC SHOWED A
WEAKENING BAND OF LIGHT...AND OCCASIONALLY MODERATE SNOW ACROSS
MUCH OF WESTERN MAINE. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH
AND DISSIPATE THIS MORNING AS THE OCEAN STORM CONTINUES TO SLIDE
FURTHER OFFSHORE AND WEAKEN. WITH DECREASING PRECIPITATION AND
WINDS...WILL ALLOW THE REMAINING WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES TO BE
DROPPED WITH THE NEW MORNING PACKAGE. WE`LL SEE GRADUAL CLEARING
FROM WEST TO EAST BY AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE HIGH CURRENTLY
DRAPED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES BUILDS EASTWARD INTO NEW ENGLAND.
HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM TEENS IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE 20S
ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
CLEAR AND COLD TONIGHT UNDER THE BUILDING RIDGE WITH FRESH
SNOWPACK AND DECOUPLING SURFACE WINDS. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM NEAR
TEN BELOW IN THE MOUNTAINS TO AROUND ZERO NEAR THE COAST AND THE
URBAN CENTERS OF SOUTHEASTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE.

AFTER A CHILLY START THURSDAY MORNING...SUNSHINE AND A DEVELOPING
RETURN FLOW BEHIND THE DEPARTING HIGH WILL BOOST AFTERNOON HIGHS
INTO THE 20S...WITH A FEW 30 DEGREE READINGS POSSIBLE OVER
SEACOAST NEW HAMPSHIRE. WE`LL SEE INCREASING CLOUDS OVER WESTERN
SECTIONS LATE IN ADVANCE OF OUR NEXT STORM SYSTEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A LONG WAVE TROUGH IS BECOMING ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND OHIO VALLEY. THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF STRONG SHORT WAVES WILL
DIG INTO THE BASE OF THE LONG WAVE TROF AND BECOME NEGATIVELY
TILTED THURSDAY NIGHT DEVELOPING A SURFACE AND UPPER LOW SOME
ALONG THE NORTHEAST COAST FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE EXITIING
INTO THE MARITIMES BY SATURDAY MORNING. MODELS HAVE COME TOGETHER
AND GENERALLY AGREE ON SCENERIO BUT SOMEWHAT DIFFERENT ON
INTENSITIES. EXPECT LIGHT SNOW TO SPREAD ACROSS NH LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT AND THEN INTO ME BY FRIDAY MORNING. ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
LIGHT. BY LATER IN THE DAY THE STORM DEEPENS OFF THE COAST AND
SOME MORE SIGNIFICANT WRAPAROUND SNOW MAY SPREAD FAR ENOUGH WEST
TO REACH THE MIDCOAST. THE SYSTEM IS PROGRESSIVE SO WILL NOT HAVE
TOO MUCH TIME TO PICK UP A LOT OF MOISTURE. IT DOES APPEAR THAT
SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM AND IT
WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED.

THE SYSTEM EXITS INTO THE MARITIMES BY SATURDAY MORNING WITH
CLEARING AND STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION ON GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.
SUNDAY WILL BE PLEASANT WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION.

ON MONDAY A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM MAY BE IN THE MAKING AS A
SYSTEM MOVING EAST FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ALLOWING THE GULF TO
OPEN AND THEN TRIES TO PHASE WITH ENERGY FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM.
A GOOD DEAL OF QPF WILL BE WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE TRACK WILL BE
CRITICAL AS USUAL. WE WILL BE WATCHING HOW THE MODELS HANDLE THE
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS WITH THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS FOR CLARITY.

OVERALL STAYED CLOSE TO THE SUPERBLEND MODELS FOR THE EXTENDED
GRIDS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...LINGERING IFR AND MVFR EARLY IN SNOW AND BLOWING
SNOW...BECOMING VFR THROUGHOUT.

LONG TERM...CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND
MOSTLY IFR FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT IN SNOW. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO
VFR OVER THE WEEKEND AS COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION
WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...A FREEZING SPRAY ADV IS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS MORNING.
GALES REMAIN UP FOR THE WATERS THIS MORNING...THEN SMALL CRAFT
EXPECTED FOR THE BALANCE OF TODAY.

LONG TERM...GALE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT ON NORTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ151-
     153.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR ANZ150-152-
     154.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KCAR 281614
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1114 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE MARITIMES TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE WEST TONIGHT...AND WILL MOVE
EAST OF THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT...AND WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF OF MAINE
FRIDAY. THE LOW WILL SLOWLY PULL AWAY INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
11:15 AM UPDATE...SOME PATCHY LIGHT SNOW AND SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE
IN EASTERN AREAS. SNOW WILL TAPER OFF TO SNOW SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON THEN END LATER. SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING WILL CONTINUE
TO OCCUR, ESPECIALLY IN OPEN AREAS, THIS AFTERNOON.

THE INTENSE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT THE BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS TO DOWN EAST MAINE YESTERDAY WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
EAST ACROSS THE COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA TODAY. SOME BANDS OF SNOW
CONTINUE TO ROTATE WESTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN AND DOWN EAST MAINE
AROUND THE DEPARTING LOW EARLY THIS MORNING. THESE SNOW BANDS WILL
DIMINISH LATER THIS MORNING AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO PULL AWAY.
SOME AREAS COULD SEE AND ADDITIONAL INCH OR SO OF SNOW
ACCUMULATION EARLY THIS MORNING. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME AREAS OF
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW TODAY. OTHERWISE EXPECT MAINLY CLOUDY
SKIES TODAY WITH A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS EXPECTED BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID
TEENS NORTH AND MID TEENS TO LOW 20S DOWN EAST.

SKIES WILL CLEAR TONIGHT AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 5 BELOW TO 15 BELOW
ZERO ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS AND 5 BELOW TO 5 ABOVE
ACROSS DOWN EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
***WINTER STORM WATCHES ISSUED FOR LATE THU NIGHT THROUGH SAT
 MORNING***

HIGH PRES CRESTS ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD THU MORNING AND MOVES
EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC. ATTENTION TURNS TO LOW PRES AND AN UPPER
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. THE LOW MOVES INTO THE GULF
OF MAINE FRI WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH TO EXTEND BACK ACROSS MAINE.
THE 700 MB LOW MOVES INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY FRI.

THU WILL BE A DRY DAY...AND AFTER A COLD START TEMPS WILL
MODERATE BACK INTO THE 20S DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE DAY SHOULD
START WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE AND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE NEXT
WEATHER SYSTEM. THE CLOUDS WILL LOWER AND THICKEN THU NIGHT WITH
LOW TEMPERATURES LIKELY TO BE RECORDED DURING THE EVENING WITH
TEMPS TO SLOWLY RISE OVERNIGHT. SNOW WILL DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT
ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW.
INITIALLY THE SYSTEM WILL BE SOMEWHAT MOISTURE STARVED...BUT AS
THE ENERGY REACHES THE COAST DURING THE DAY FRI ATLANTIC MOISTURE
WILL BE FUNNELED BACK ACROSS THE REGION. THERE IS STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHERE THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL FALL. THE MODELS
DIFFER ON THE POSITION OF BOTH THE SFC AND MID LEVEL LOWS WHICH
WILL HAVE IMPLICATIONS ON THE DISTRIBUTION OF THE HEAVIEST
SNOWFALL. IT IS EVEN POSSIBLE THAT IF THE LOW IS CLOSE ENOUGH TO
THE COAST THAT SOME COASTAL AREAS MAY HAVE ENOUGH WARM AIR MOVE IN
FOR A CHANGEOVER TO RAIN AT SOME POINT DURING THE EVENT. DESPITE
SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IS GREATER THAN 50
PERCENT THAT A LARGE PORTION OF THE CWA WILL REACH WARNING
CRITERIA SNOWFALL...AND THUS WILL ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE SNOW WILL CONTINUE FRI NIGHT AS THE LOW BEGINS TO PULL INTO
THE MARITIMES AND WRAPS MOISTURE BACK ACROSS THE REGION. THE SNOW
WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION SAT. DRY AND
COLD WEATHER FOLLOWS FOR SAT NIGHT AND SUN AS HIGH PRES BRIEFLY
BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE AREA. THE THIRD IN A SERIES OF LOWS LOOKS
TO AFFECT THE REGION MON INTO MON NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
IN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET AND MOVES TOWARD THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST MONDAY. THERE ARE DIFFERENCES ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW...BUT
WITH A VERY COLD AIR MASS IN PLACE A TRACK ACROSS MAINE (12Z ECWMF
AND 00Z GFS) IS NOT FAVORED AS THE BEST BAROCLINC ZONE IS LIKELY
TO LIE FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. AT THIS TIME
WOULD SUSPECT THE BEST CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS WOULD
BE ACROSS THE DOWN EAST REGION AND INTO PARTS OF NORTHEAST MAINE.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING
IN LINGERING LIGHT SNOW OTHERWISE A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO VFR CAN
BE EXPECTED TODAY ALONG WITH SOME BLOWING SNOW. VFR WILL THEN
CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: VFR THU THROUGH THU EVENING.  CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
LOWER TO MVFR LATE THU NIGHT OR EARLY FRI MORNING IN -SN.
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE TO IFR AND POSSIBLE VLIFR IN
SNOW DURING THE DAY FRI AND CONTINUING INTO SAT MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: THE GALE WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED TO 4 PM THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS GUSTING UP TO 35 KT ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DIMINISH LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO MOVE IN. FREEZING
SPRAY WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM: THE WIND AND WAVES WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH THU NIGHT.  A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED FRIDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF GALES LATER FRI
NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING AS LOW PRES PULLS AWAY FROM THE WATERS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
A RECORD DAILY SNOWFALL OF 13.3" WAS OBSERVED YESTERDAY
AT BANGOR, MAINE. THIS BROKE THE PREVIOUS RECORD OF 10.8", SET IN
1963.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
     MORNING FOR MEZ002-005-006-011-017-030-032.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
     MORNING FOR MEZ001-003-004-010-015-016-029-031.
MARINE...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ052.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DUDA/MCB
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM...CB
AVIATION...DUDA/CB
MARINE...DUDA/CB
CLIMATE...CB




000
FXUS61 KCAR 281614
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1114 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE MARITIMES TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE WEST TONIGHT...AND WILL MOVE
EAST OF THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT...AND WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF OF MAINE
FRIDAY. THE LOW WILL SLOWLY PULL AWAY INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
11:15 AM UPDATE...SOME PATCHY LIGHT SNOW AND SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE
IN EASTERN AREAS. SNOW WILL TAPER OFF TO SNOW SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON THEN END LATER. SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING WILL CONTINUE
TO OCCUR, ESPECIALLY IN OPEN AREAS, THIS AFTERNOON.

THE INTENSE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT THE BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS TO DOWN EAST MAINE YESTERDAY WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
EAST ACROSS THE COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA TODAY. SOME BANDS OF SNOW
CONTINUE TO ROTATE WESTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN AND DOWN EAST MAINE
AROUND THE DEPARTING LOW EARLY THIS MORNING. THESE SNOW BANDS WILL
DIMINISH LATER THIS MORNING AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO PULL AWAY.
SOME AREAS COULD SEE AND ADDITIONAL INCH OR SO OF SNOW
ACCUMULATION EARLY THIS MORNING. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME AREAS OF
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW TODAY. OTHERWISE EXPECT MAINLY CLOUDY
SKIES TODAY WITH A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS EXPECTED BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID
TEENS NORTH AND MID TEENS TO LOW 20S DOWN EAST.

SKIES WILL CLEAR TONIGHT AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 5 BELOW TO 15 BELOW
ZERO ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS AND 5 BELOW TO 5 ABOVE
ACROSS DOWN EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
***WINTER STORM WATCHES ISSUED FOR LATE THU NIGHT THROUGH SAT
 MORNING***

HIGH PRES CRESTS ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD THU MORNING AND MOVES
EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC. ATTENTION TURNS TO LOW PRES AND AN UPPER
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. THE LOW MOVES INTO THE GULF
OF MAINE FRI WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH TO EXTEND BACK ACROSS MAINE.
THE 700 MB LOW MOVES INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY FRI.

THU WILL BE A DRY DAY...AND AFTER A COLD START TEMPS WILL
MODERATE BACK INTO THE 20S DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE DAY SHOULD
START WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE AND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE NEXT
WEATHER SYSTEM. THE CLOUDS WILL LOWER AND THICKEN THU NIGHT WITH
LOW TEMPERATURES LIKELY TO BE RECORDED DURING THE EVENING WITH
TEMPS TO SLOWLY RISE OVERNIGHT. SNOW WILL DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT
ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW.
INITIALLY THE SYSTEM WILL BE SOMEWHAT MOISTURE STARVED...BUT AS
THE ENERGY REACHES THE COAST DURING THE DAY FRI ATLANTIC MOISTURE
WILL BE FUNNELED BACK ACROSS THE REGION. THERE IS STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHERE THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL FALL. THE MODELS
DIFFER ON THE POSITION OF BOTH THE SFC AND MID LEVEL LOWS WHICH
WILL HAVE IMPLICATIONS ON THE DISTRIBUTION OF THE HEAVIEST
SNOWFALL. IT IS EVEN POSSIBLE THAT IF THE LOW IS CLOSE ENOUGH TO
THE COAST THAT SOME COASTAL AREAS MAY HAVE ENOUGH WARM AIR MOVE IN
FOR A CHANGEOVER TO RAIN AT SOME POINT DURING THE EVENT. DESPITE
SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IS GREATER THAN 50
PERCENT THAT A LARGE PORTION OF THE CWA WILL REACH WARNING
CRITERIA SNOWFALL...AND THUS WILL ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE SNOW WILL CONTINUE FRI NIGHT AS THE LOW BEGINS TO PULL INTO
THE MARITIMES AND WRAPS MOISTURE BACK ACROSS THE REGION. THE SNOW
WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION SAT. DRY AND
COLD WEATHER FOLLOWS FOR SAT NIGHT AND SUN AS HIGH PRES BRIEFLY
BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE AREA. THE THIRD IN A SERIES OF LOWS LOOKS
TO AFFECT THE REGION MON INTO MON NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
IN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET AND MOVES TOWARD THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST MONDAY. THERE ARE DIFFERENCES ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW...BUT
WITH A VERY COLD AIR MASS IN PLACE A TRACK ACROSS MAINE (12Z ECWMF
AND 00Z GFS) IS NOT FAVORED AS THE BEST BAROCLINC ZONE IS LIKELY
TO LIE FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. AT THIS TIME
WOULD SUSPECT THE BEST CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS WOULD
BE ACROSS THE DOWN EAST REGION AND INTO PARTS OF NORTHEAST MAINE.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING
IN LINGERING LIGHT SNOW OTHERWISE A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO VFR CAN
BE EXPECTED TODAY ALONG WITH SOME BLOWING SNOW. VFR WILL THEN
CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: VFR THU THROUGH THU EVENING.  CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
LOWER TO MVFR LATE THU NIGHT OR EARLY FRI MORNING IN -SN.
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE TO IFR AND POSSIBLE VLIFR IN
SNOW DURING THE DAY FRI AND CONTINUING INTO SAT MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: THE GALE WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED TO 4 PM THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS GUSTING UP TO 35 KT ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DIMINISH LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO MOVE IN. FREEZING
SPRAY WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM: THE WIND AND WAVES WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH THU NIGHT.  A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED FRIDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF GALES LATER FRI
NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING AS LOW PRES PULLS AWAY FROM THE WATERS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
A RECORD DAILY SNOWFALL OF 13.3" WAS OBSERVED YESTERDAY
AT BANGOR, MAINE. THIS BROKE THE PREVIOUS RECORD OF 10.8", SET IN
1963.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
     MORNING FOR MEZ002-005-006-011-017-030-032.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
     MORNING FOR MEZ001-003-004-010-015-016-029-031.
MARINE...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ052.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DUDA/MCB
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM...CB
AVIATION...DUDA/CB
MARINE...DUDA/CB
CLIMATE...CB



000
FXUS61 KGYX 281541
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1041 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN INTENSE OCEAN STORM WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN FOLLOW FOR LATE
TODAY INTO THURSDAY. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING A
GENERAL SNOWFALL TO THE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH ANOTHER
STORM HEADING TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS. SIGNIFICANT BREAKS
IN THE CLOUD COVER OVER NEW HAMPSHIRE AND WESTERN MAINE SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MIGRATE EAST WITH TIME. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY CLIMB OUT OF THE TEENS...EVENTUALLY REACHING THE MID 20S
OVER SOUTHERN SECTIONS.

ALREADY TURNING ATTENTION TO NEXT SYSTEM WHICH WILL PRODUCE MORE
SNOW ACROSS THE REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY EVENING.
MOST OF THE SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION WILL BE OVER EASTERN AREAS AS
LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES OVER THE EASTERNMOST PORTIONS OF THE GULF
OF MAINE FRIDAY. THERE WILL BE RAPID CYCLOGENESIS FRIDAY NIGHT
OVER THE MARITIMES.

PREV DISC...
625 AM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO INGEST CURRENT MESONET INTO 1ST
PERIOD GRIDS.

PREV DISC...
AT 07Z...A 990 MILLIBAR OCEAN LOW WAS CENTERED WELL EAST OF
PORTSMOUTH. NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR MOSAIC SHOWED A
WEAKENING BAND OF LIGHT...AND OCCASIONALLY MODERATE SNOW ACROSS
MUCH OF WESTERN MAINE. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH
AND DISSIPATE THIS MORNING AS THE OCEAN STORM CONTINUES TO SLIDE
FURTHER OFFSHORE AND WEAKEN. WITH DECREASING PRECIPITATION AND
WINDS...WILL ALLOW THE REMAINING WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES TO BE
DROPPED WITH THE NEW MORNING PACKAGE. WE`LL SEE GRADUAL CLEARING
FROM WEST TO EAST BY AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE HIGH CURRENTLY
DRAPED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES BUILDS EASTWARD INTO NEW ENGLAND.
HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM TEENS IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE 20S
ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
CLEAR AND COLD TONIGHT UNDER THE BUILDING RIDGE WITH FRESH
SNOWPACK AND DECOUPLING SURFACE WINDS. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM NEAR
TEN BELOW IN THE MOUNTAINS TO AROUND ZERO NEAR THE COAST AND THE
URBAN CENTERS OF SOUTHEASTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE.

AFTER A CHILLY START THURSDAY MORNING...SUNSHINE AND A DEVELOPING
RETURN FLOW BEHIND THE DEPARTING HIGH WILL BOOST AFTERNOON HIGHS
INTO THE 20S...WITH A FEW 30 DEGREE READINGS POSSIBLE OVER
SEACOAST NEW HAMPSHIRE. WE`LL SEE INCREASING CLOUDS OVER WESTERN
SECTIONS LATE IN ADVANCE OF OUR NEXT STORM SYSTEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A LONG WAVE TROUGH IS BECOMING ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND OHIO VALLEY. THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF STRONG SHORT WAVES WILL
DIG INTO THE BASE OF THE LONG WAVE TROF AND BECOME NEGATIVELY
TILTED THURSDAY NIGHT DEVELOPING A SURFACE AND UPPER LOW SOME
ALONG THE NORTHEAST COAST FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE EXITIING
INTO THE MARITIMES BY SATURDAY MORNING. MODELS HAVE COME TOGETHER
AND GENERALLY AGREE ON SCENERIO BUT SOMEWHAT DIFFERENT ON
INTENSITIES. EXPECT LIGHT SNOW TO SPREAD ACROSS NH LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT AND THEN INTO ME BY FRIDAY MORNING. ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
LIGHT. BY LATER IN THE DAY THE STORM DEEPENS OFF THE COAST AND
SOME MORE SIGNIFICANT WRAPAROUND SNOW MAY SPREAD FAR ENOUGH WEST
TO REACH THE MIDCOAST. THE SYSTEM IS PROGRESSIVE SO WILL NOT HAVE
TOO MUCH TIME TO PICK UP A LOT OF MOISTURE. IT DOES APPEAR THAT
SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM AND IT
WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED.

THE SYSTEM EXITS INTO THE MARITIMES BY SATURDAY MORNING WITH
CLEARING AND STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION ON GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.
SUNDAY WILL BE PLEASANT WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION.

ON MONDAY A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM MAY BE IN THE MAKING AS A
SYSTEM MOVING EAST FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ALLOWING THE GULF TO
OPEN AND THEN TRIES TO PHASE WITH ENERGY FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM.
A GOOD DEAL OF QPF WILL BE WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE TRACK WILL BE
CRITICAL AS USUAL. WE WILL BE WATCHING HOW THE MODELS HANDLE THE
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS WITH THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS FOR CLARITY.

OVERALL STAYED CLOSE TO THE SUPERBLEND MODELS FOR THE EXTENDED
GRIDS.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM...LINGERING IFR AND MVFR EARLY IN SNOW AND BLOWING
SNOW...BECOMING VFR THROUGHOUT.

LONG TERM...CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND
MOSTLY IFR FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT IN SNOW. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO
VFR OVER THE WEEKEND AS COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION
WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...A FREEZING SPRAY ADV IS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS MORNING.
GALES REMAIN UP FOR THE WATERS THIS MORNING...THEN SMALL CRAFT
EXPECTED FOR THE BALANCE OF TODAY.

LONG TERM...GALE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT ON NORTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$
JC



000
FXUS61 KGYX 281541
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1041 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN INTENSE OCEAN STORM WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN FOLLOW FOR LATE
TODAY INTO THURSDAY. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING A
GENERAL SNOWFALL TO THE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH ANOTHER
STORM HEADING TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS. SIGNIFICANT BREAKS
IN THE CLOUD COVER OVER NEW HAMPSHIRE AND WESTERN MAINE SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MIGRATE EAST WITH TIME. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY CLIMB OUT OF THE TEENS...EVENTUALLY REACHING THE MID 20S
OVER SOUTHERN SECTIONS.

ALREADY TURNING ATTENTION TO NEXT SYSTEM WHICH WILL PRODUCE MORE
SNOW ACROSS THE REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY EVENING.
MOST OF THE SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION WILL BE OVER EASTERN AREAS AS
LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES OVER THE EASTERNMOST PORTIONS OF THE GULF
OF MAINE FRIDAY. THERE WILL BE RAPID CYCLOGENESIS FRIDAY NIGHT
OVER THE MARITIMES.

PREV DISC...
625 AM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO INGEST CURRENT MESONET INTO 1ST
PERIOD GRIDS.

PREV DISC...
AT 07Z...A 990 MILLIBAR OCEAN LOW WAS CENTERED WELL EAST OF
PORTSMOUTH. NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR MOSAIC SHOWED A
WEAKENING BAND OF LIGHT...AND OCCASIONALLY MODERATE SNOW ACROSS
MUCH OF WESTERN MAINE. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH
AND DISSIPATE THIS MORNING AS THE OCEAN STORM CONTINUES TO SLIDE
FURTHER OFFSHORE AND WEAKEN. WITH DECREASING PRECIPITATION AND
WINDS...WILL ALLOW THE REMAINING WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES TO BE
DROPPED WITH THE NEW MORNING PACKAGE. WE`LL SEE GRADUAL CLEARING
FROM WEST TO EAST BY AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE HIGH CURRENTLY
DRAPED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES BUILDS EASTWARD INTO NEW ENGLAND.
HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM TEENS IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE 20S
ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
CLEAR AND COLD TONIGHT UNDER THE BUILDING RIDGE WITH FRESH
SNOWPACK AND DECOUPLING SURFACE WINDS. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM NEAR
TEN BELOW IN THE MOUNTAINS TO AROUND ZERO NEAR THE COAST AND THE
URBAN CENTERS OF SOUTHEASTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE.

AFTER A CHILLY START THURSDAY MORNING...SUNSHINE AND A DEVELOPING
RETURN FLOW BEHIND THE DEPARTING HIGH WILL BOOST AFTERNOON HIGHS
INTO THE 20S...WITH A FEW 30 DEGREE READINGS POSSIBLE OVER
SEACOAST NEW HAMPSHIRE. WE`LL SEE INCREASING CLOUDS OVER WESTERN
SECTIONS LATE IN ADVANCE OF OUR NEXT STORM SYSTEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A LONG WAVE TROUGH IS BECOMING ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND OHIO VALLEY. THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF STRONG SHORT WAVES WILL
DIG INTO THE BASE OF THE LONG WAVE TROF AND BECOME NEGATIVELY
TILTED THURSDAY NIGHT DEVELOPING A SURFACE AND UPPER LOW SOME
ALONG THE NORTHEAST COAST FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE EXITIING
INTO THE MARITIMES BY SATURDAY MORNING. MODELS HAVE COME TOGETHER
AND GENERALLY AGREE ON SCENERIO BUT SOMEWHAT DIFFERENT ON
INTENSITIES. EXPECT LIGHT SNOW TO SPREAD ACROSS NH LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT AND THEN INTO ME BY FRIDAY MORNING. ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
LIGHT. BY LATER IN THE DAY THE STORM DEEPENS OFF THE COAST AND
SOME MORE SIGNIFICANT WRAPAROUND SNOW MAY SPREAD FAR ENOUGH WEST
TO REACH THE MIDCOAST. THE SYSTEM IS PROGRESSIVE SO WILL NOT HAVE
TOO MUCH TIME TO PICK UP A LOT OF MOISTURE. IT DOES APPEAR THAT
SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM AND IT
WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED.

THE SYSTEM EXITS INTO THE MARITIMES BY SATURDAY MORNING WITH
CLEARING AND STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION ON GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.
SUNDAY WILL BE PLEASANT WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION.

ON MONDAY A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM MAY BE IN THE MAKING AS A
SYSTEM MOVING EAST FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ALLOWING THE GULF TO
OPEN AND THEN TRIES TO PHASE WITH ENERGY FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM.
A GOOD DEAL OF QPF WILL BE WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE TRACK WILL BE
CRITICAL AS USUAL. WE WILL BE WATCHING HOW THE MODELS HANDLE THE
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS WITH THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS FOR CLARITY.

OVERALL STAYED CLOSE TO THE SUPERBLEND MODELS FOR THE EXTENDED
GRIDS.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM...LINGERING IFR AND MVFR EARLY IN SNOW AND BLOWING
SNOW...BECOMING VFR THROUGHOUT.

LONG TERM...CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND
MOSTLY IFR FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT IN SNOW. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO
VFR OVER THE WEEKEND AS COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION
WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...A FREEZING SPRAY ADV IS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS MORNING.
GALES REMAIN UP FOR THE WATERS THIS MORNING...THEN SMALL CRAFT
EXPECTED FOR THE BALANCE OF TODAY.

LONG TERM...GALE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT ON NORTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$
JC




000
FXUS61 KGYX 281541
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1041 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN INTENSE OCEAN STORM WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN FOLLOW FOR LATE
TODAY INTO THURSDAY. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING A
GENERAL SNOWFALL TO THE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH ANOTHER
STORM HEADING TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS. SIGNIFICANT BREAKS
IN THE CLOUD COVER OVER NEW HAMPSHIRE AND WESTERN MAINE SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MIGRATE EAST WITH TIME. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY CLIMB OUT OF THE TEENS...EVENTUALLY REACHING THE MID 20S
OVER SOUTHERN SECTIONS.

ALREADY TURNING ATTENTION TO NEXT SYSTEM WHICH WILL PRODUCE MORE
SNOW ACROSS THE REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY EVENING.
MOST OF THE SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION WILL BE OVER EASTERN AREAS AS
LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES OVER THE EASTERNMOST PORTIONS OF THE GULF
OF MAINE FRIDAY. THERE WILL BE RAPID CYCLOGENESIS FRIDAY NIGHT
OVER THE MARITIMES.

PREV DISC...
625 AM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO INGEST CURRENT MESONET INTO 1ST
PERIOD GRIDS.

PREV DISC...
AT 07Z...A 990 MILLIBAR OCEAN LOW WAS CENTERED WELL EAST OF
PORTSMOUTH. NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR MOSAIC SHOWED A
WEAKENING BAND OF LIGHT...AND OCCASIONALLY MODERATE SNOW ACROSS
MUCH OF WESTERN MAINE. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH
AND DISSIPATE THIS MORNING AS THE OCEAN STORM CONTINUES TO SLIDE
FURTHER OFFSHORE AND WEAKEN. WITH DECREASING PRECIPITATION AND
WINDS...WILL ALLOW THE REMAINING WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES TO BE
DROPPED WITH THE NEW MORNING PACKAGE. WE`LL SEE GRADUAL CLEARING
FROM WEST TO EAST BY AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE HIGH CURRENTLY
DRAPED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES BUILDS EASTWARD INTO NEW ENGLAND.
HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM TEENS IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE 20S
ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
CLEAR AND COLD TONIGHT UNDER THE BUILDING RIDGE WITH FRESH
SNOWPACK AND DECOUPLING SURFACE WINDS. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM NEAR
TEN BELOW IN THE MOUNTAINS TO AROUND ZERO NEAR THE COAST AND THE
URBAN CENTERS OF SOUTHEASTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE.

AFTER A CHILLY START THURSDAY MORNING...SUNSHINE AND A DEVELOPING
RETURN FLOW BEHIND THE DEPARTING HIGH WILL BOOST AFTERNOON HIGHS
INTO THE 20S...WITH A FEW 30 DEGREE READINGS POSSIBLE OVER
SEACOAST NEW HAMPSHIRE. WE`LL SEE INCREASING CLOUDS OVER WESTERN
SECTIONS LATE IN ADVANCE OF OUR NEXT STORM SYSTEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A LONG WAVE TROUGH IS BECOMING ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND OHIO VALLEY. THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF STRONG SHORT WAVES WILL
DIG INTO THE BASE OF THE LONG WAVE TROF AND BECOME NEGATIVELY
TILTED THURSDAY NIGHT DEVELOPING A SURFACE AND UPPER LOW SOME
ALONG THE NORTHEAST COAST FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE EXITIING
INTO THE MARITIMES BY SATURDAY MORNING. MODELS HAVE COME TOGETHER
AND GENERALLY AGREE ON SCENERIO BUT SOMEWHAT DIFFERENT ON
INTENSITIES. EXPECT LIGHT SNOW TO SPREAD ACROSS NH LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT AND THEN INTO ME BY FRIDAY MORNING. ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
LIGHT. BY LATER IN THE DAY THE STORM DEEPENS OFF THE COAST AND
SOME MORE SIGNIFICANT WRAPAROUND SNOW MAY SPREAD FAR ENOUGH WEST
TO REACH THE MIDCOAST. THE SYSTEM IS PROGRESSIVE SO WILL NOT HAVE
TOO MUCH TIME TO PICK UP A LOT OF MOISTURE. IT DOES APPEAR THAT
SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM AND IT
WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED.

THE SYSTEM EXITS INTO THE MARITIMES BY SATURDAY MORNING WITH
CLEARING AND STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION ON GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.
SUNDAY WILL BE PLEASANT WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION.

ON MONDAY A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM MAY BE IN THE MAKING AS A
SYSTEM MOVING EAST FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ALLOWING THE GULF TO
OPEN AND THEN TRIES TO PHASE WITH ENERGY FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM.
A GOOD DEAL OF QPF WILL BE WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE TRACK WILL BE
CRITICAL AS USUAL. WE WILL BE WATCHING HOW THE MODELS HANDLE THE
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS WITH THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS FOR CLARITY.

OVERALL STAYED CLOSE TO THE SUPERBLEND MODELS FOR THE EXTENDED
GRIDS.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM...LINGERING IFR AND MVFR EARLY IN SNOW AND BLOWING
SNOW...BECOMING VFR THROUGHOUT.

LONG TERM...CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND
MOSTLY IFR FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT IN SNOW. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO
VFR OVER THE WEEKEND AS COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION
WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...A FREEZING SPRAY ADV IS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS MORNING.
GALES REMAIN UP FOR THE WATERS THIS MORNING...THEN SMALL CRAFT
EXPECTED FOR THE BALANCE OF TODAY.

LONG TERM...GALE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT ON NORTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$
JC




000
FXUS61 KGYX 281541
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1041 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN INTENSE OCEAN STORM WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN FOLLOW FOR LATE
TODAY INTO THURSDAY. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING A
GENERAL SNOWFALL TO THE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH ANOTHER
STORM HEADING TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS. SIGNIFICANT BREAKS
IN THE CLOUD COVER OVER NEW HAMPSHIRE AND WESTERN MAINE SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MIGRATE EAST WITH TIME. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY CLIMB OUT OF THE TEENS...EVENTUALLY REACHING THE MID 20S
OVER SOUTHERN SECTIONS.

ALREADY TURNING ATTENTION TO NEXT SYSTEM WHICH WILL PRODUCE MORE
SNOW ACROSS THE REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY EVENING.
MOST OF THE SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION WILL BE OVER EASTERN AREAS AS
LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES OVER THE EASTERNMOST PORTIONS OF THE GULF
OF MAINE FRIDAY. THERE WILL BE RAPID CYCLOGENESIS FRIDAY NIGHT
OVER THE MARITIMES.

PREV DISC...
625 AM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO INGEST CURRENT MESONET INTO 1ST
PERIOD GRIDS.

PREV DISC...
AT 07Z...A 990 MILLIBAR OCEAN LOW WAS CENTERED WELL EAST OF
PORTSMOUTH. NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR MOSAIC SHOWED A
WEAKENING BAND OF LIGHT...AND OCCASIONALLY MODERATE SNOW ACROSS
MUCH OF WESTERN MAINE. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH
AND DISSIPATE THIS MORNING AS THE OCEAN STORM CONTINUES TO SLIDE
FURTHER OFFSHORE AND WEAKEN. WITH DECREASING PRECIPITATION AND
WINDS...WILL ALLOW THE REMAINING WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES TO BE
DROPPED WITH THE NEW MORNING PACKAGE. WE`LL SEE GRADUAL CLEARING
FROM WEST TO EAST BY AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE HIGH CURRENTLY
DRAPED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES BUILDS EASTWARD INTO NEW ENGLAND.
HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM TEENS IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE 20S
ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
CLEAR AND COLD TONIGHT UNDER THE BUILDING RIDGE WITH FRESH
SNOWPACK AND DECOUPLING SURFACE WINDS. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM NEAR
TEN BELOW IN THE MOUNTAINS TO AROUND ZERO NEAR THE COAST AND THE
URBAN CENTERS OF SOUTHEASTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE.

AFTER A CHILLY START THURSDAY MORNING...SUNSHINE AND A DEVELOPING
RETURN FLOW BEHIND THE DEPARTING HIGH WILL BOOST AFTERNOON HIGHS
INTO THE 20S...WITH A FEW 30 DEGREE READINGS POSSIBLE OVER
SEACOAST NEW HAMPSHIRE. WE`LL SEE INCREASING CLOUDS OVER WESTERN
SECTIONS LATE IN ADVANCE OF OUR NEXT STORM SYSTEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A LONG WAVE TROUGH IS BECOMING ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND OHIO VALLEY. THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF STRONG SHORT WAVES WILL
DIG INTO THE BASE OF THE LONG WAVE TROF AND BECOME NEGATIVELY
TILTED THURSDAY NIGHT DEVELOPING A SURFACE AND UPPER LOW SOME
ALONG THE NORTHEAST COAST FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE EXITIING
INTO THE MARITIMES BY SATURDAY MORNING. MODELS HAVE COME TOGETHER
AND GENERALLY AGREE ON SCENERIO BUT SOMEWHAT DIFFERENT ON
INTENSITIES. EXPECT LIGHT SNOW TO SPREAD ACROSS NH LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT AND THEN INTO ME BY FRIDAY MORNING. ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
LIGHT. BY LATER IN THE DAY THE STORM DEEPENS OFF THE COAST AND
SOME MORE SIGNIFICANT WRAPAROUND SNOW MAY SPREAD FAR ENOUGH WEST
TO REACH THE MIDCOAST. THE SYSTEM IS PROGRESSIVE SO WILL NOT HAVE
TOO MUCH TIME TO PICK UP A LOT OF MOISTURE. IT DOES APPEAR THAT
SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM AND IT
WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED.

THE SYSTEM EXITS INTO THE MARITIMES BY SATURDAY MORNING WITH
CLEARING AND STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION ON GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.
SUNDAY WILL BE PLEASANT WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION.

ON MONDAY A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM MAY BE IN THE MAKING AS A
SYSTEM MOVING EAST FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ALLOWING THE GULF TO
OPEN AND THEN TRIES TO PHASE WITH ENERGY FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM.
A GOOD DEAL OF QPF WILL BE WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE TRACK WILL BE
CRITICAL AS USUAL. WE WILL BE WATCHING HOW THE MODELS HANDLE THE
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS WITH THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS FOR CLARITY.

OVERALL STAYED CLOSE TO THE SUPERBLEND MODELS FOR THE EXTENDED
GRIDS.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM...LINGERING IFR AND MVFR EARLY IN SNOW AND BLOWING
SNOW...BECOMING VFR THROUGHOUT.

LONG TERM...CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND
MOSTLY IFR FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT IN SNOW. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO
VFR OVER THE WEEKEND AS COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION
WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...A FREEZING SPRAY ADV IS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS MORNING.
GALES REMAIN UP FOR THE WATERS THIS MORNING...THEN SMALL CRAFT
EXPECTED FOR THE BALANCE OF TODAY.

LONG TERM...GALE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT ON NORTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$
JC




000
FXUS61 KGYX 281541
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1041 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN INTENSE OCEAN STORM WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN FOLLOW FOR LATE
TODAY INTO THURSDAY. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING A
GENERAL SNOWFALL TO THE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH ANOTHER
STORM HEADING TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS. SIGNIFICANT BREAKS
IN THE CLOUD COVER OVER NEW HAMPSHIRE AND WESTERN MAINE SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MIGRATE EAST WITH TIME. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY CLIMB OUT OF THE TEENS...EVENTUALLY REACHING THE MID 20S
OVER SOUTHERN SECTIONS.

ALREADY TURNING ATTENTION TO NEXT SYSTEM WHICH WILL PRODUCE MORE
SNOW ACROSS THE REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY EVENING.
MOST OF THE SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION WILL BE OVER EASTERN AREAS AS
LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES OVER THE EASTERNMOST PORTIONS OF THE GULF
OF MAINE FRIDAY. THERE WILL BE RAPID CYCLOGENESIS FRIDAY NIGHT
OVER THE MARITIMES.

PREV DISC...
625 AM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO INGEST CURRENT MESONET INTO 1ST
PERIOD GRIDS.

PREV DISC...
AT 07Z...A 990 MILLIBAR OCEAN LOW WAS CENTERED WELL EAST OF
PORTSMOUTH. NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR MOSAIC SHOWED A
WEAKENING BAND OF LIGHT...AND OCCASIONALLY MODERATE SNOW ACROSS
MUCH OF WESTERN MAINE. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH
AND DISSIPATE THIS MORNING AS THE OCEAN STORM CONTINUES TO SLIDE
FURTHER OFFSHORE AND WEAKEN. WITH DECREASING PRECIPITATION AND
WINDS...WILL ALLOW THE REMAINING WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES TO BE
DROPPED WITH THE NEW MORNING PACKAGE. WE`LL SEE GRADUAL CLEARING
FROM WEST TO EAST BY AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE HIGH CURRENTLY
DRAPED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES BUILDS EASTWARD INTO NEW ENGLAND.
HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM TEENS IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE 20S
ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
CLEAR AND COLD TONIGHT UNDER THE BUILDING RIDGE WITH FRESH
SNOWPACK AND DECOUPLING SURFACE WINDS. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM NEAR
TEN BELOW IN THE MOUNTAINS TO AROUND ZERO NEAR THE COAST AND THE
URBAN CENTERS OF SOUTHEASTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE.

AFTER A CHILLY START THURSDAY MORNING...SUNSHINE AND A DEVELOPING
RETURN FLOW BEHIND THE DEPARTING HIGH WILL BOOST AFTERNOON HIGHS
INTO THE 20S...WITH A FEW 30 DEGREE READINGS POSSIBLE OVER
SEACOAST NEW HAMPSHIRE. WE`LL SEE INCREASING CLOUDS OVER WESTERN
SECTIONS LATE IN ADVANCE OF OUR NEXT STORM SYSTEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A LONG WAVE TROUGH IS BECOMING ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND OHIO VALLEY. THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF STRONG SHORT WAVES WILL
DIG INTO THE BASE OF THE LONG WAVE TROF AND BECOME NEGATIVELY
TILTED THURSDAY NIGHT DEVELOPING A SURFACE AND UPPER LOW SOME
ALONG THE NORTHEAST COAST FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE EXITIING
INTO THE MARITIMES BY SATURDAY MORNING. MODELS HAVE COME TOGETHER
AND GENERALLY AGREE ON SCENERIO BUT SOMEWHAT DIFFERENT ON
INTENSITIES. EXPECT LIGHT SNOW TO SPREAD ACROSS NH LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT AND THEN INTO ME BY FRIDAY MORNING. ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
LIGHT. BY LATER IN THE DAY THE STORM DEEPENS OFF THE COAST AND
SOME MORE SIGNIFICANT WRAPAROUND SNOW MAY SPREAD FAR ENOUGH WEST
TO REACH THE MIDCOAST. THE SYSTEM IS PROGRESSIVE SO WILL NOT HAVE
TOO MUCH TIME TO PICK UP A LOT OF MOISTURE. IT DOES APPEAR THAT
SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM AND IT
WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED.

THE SYSTEM EXITS INTO THE MARITIMES BY SATURDAY MORNING WITH
CLEARING AND STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION ON GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.
SUNDAY WILL BE PLEASANT WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION.

ON MONDAY A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM MAY BE IN THE MAKING AS A
SYSTEM MOVING EAST FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ALLOWING THE GULF TO
OPEN AND THEN TRIES TO PHASE WITH ENERGY FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM.
A GOOD DEAL OF QPF WILL BE WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE TRACK WILL BE
CRITICAL AS USUAL. WE WILL BE WATCHING HOW THE MODELS HANDLE THE
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS WITH THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS FOR CLARITY.

OVERALL STAYED CLOSE TO THE SUPERBLEND MODELS FOR THE EXTENDED
GRIDS.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM...LINGERING IFR AND MVFR EARLY IN SNOW AND BLOWING
SNOW...BECOMING VFR THROUGHOUT.

LONG TERM...CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND
MOSTLY IFR FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT IN SNOW. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO
VFR OVER THE WEEKEND AS COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION
WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...A FREEZING SPRAY ADV IS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS MORNING.
GALES REMAIN UP FOR THE WATERS THIS MORNING...THEN SMALL CRAFT
EXPECTED FOR THE BALANCE OF TODAY.

LONG TERM...GALE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT ON NORTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$
JC




000
FXUS61 KGYX 281541
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1041 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN INTENSE OCEAN STORM WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN FOLLOW FOR LATE
TODAY INTO THURSDAY. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING A
GENERAL SNOWFALL TO THE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH ANOTHER
STORM HEADING TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS. SIGNIFICANT BREAKS
IN THE CLOUD COVER OVER NEW HAMPSHIRE AND WESTERN MAINE SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MIGRATE EAST WITH TIME. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY CLIMB OUT OF THE TEENS...EVENTUALLY REACHING THE MID 20S
OVER SOUTHERN SECTIONS.

ALREADY TURNING ATTENTION TO NEXT SYSTEM WHICH WILL PRODUCE MORE
SNOW ACROSS THE REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY EVENING.
MOST OF THE SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION WILL BE OVER EASTERN AREAS AS
LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES OVER THE EASTERNMOST PORTIONS OF THE GULF
OF MAINE FRIDAY. THERE WILL BE RAPID CYCLOGENESIS FRIDAY NIGHT
OVER THE MARITIMES.

PREV DISC...
625 AM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO INGEST CURRENT MESONET INTO 1ST
PERIOD GRIDS.

PREV DISC...
AT 07Z...A 990 MILLIBAR OCEAN LOW WAS CENTERED WELL EAST OF
PORTSMOUTH. NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR MOSAIC SHOWED A
WEAKENING BAND OF LIGHT...AND OCCASIONALLY MODERATE SNOW ACROSS
MUCH OF WESTERN MAINE. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH
AND DISSIPATE THIS MORNING AS THE OCEAN STORM CONTINUES TO SLIDE
FURTHER OFFSHORE AND WEAKEN. WITH DECREASING PRECIPITATION AND
WINDS...WILL ALLOW THE REMAINING WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES TO BE
DROPPED WITH THE NEW MORNING PACKAGE. WE`LL SEE GRADUAL CLEARING
FROM WEST TO EAST BY AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE HIGH CURRENTLY
DRAPED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES BUILDS EASTWARD INTO NEW ENGLAND.
HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM TEENS IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE 20S
ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
CLEAR AND COLD TONIGHT UNDER THE BUILDING RIDGE WITH FRESH
SNOWPACK AND DECOUPLING SURFACE WINDS. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM NEAR
TEN BELOW IN THE MOUNTAINS TO AROUND ZERO NEAR THE COAST AND THE
URBAN CENTERS OF SOUTHEASTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE.

AFTER A CHILLY START THURSDAY MORNING...SUNSHINE AND A DEVELOPING
RETURN FLOW BEHIND THE DEPARTING HIGH WILL BOOST AFTERNOON HIGHS
INTO THE 20S...WITH A FEW 30 DEGREE READINGS POSSIBLE OVER
SEACOAST NEW HAMPSHIRE. WE`LL SEE INCREASING CLOUDS OVER WESTERN
SECTIONS LATE IN ADVANCE OF OUR NEXT STORM SYSTEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A LONG WAVE TROUGH IS BECOMING ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND OHIO VALLEY. THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF STRONG SHORT WAVES WILL
DIG INTO THE BASE OF THE LONG WAVE TROF AND BECOME NEGATIVELY
TILTED THURSDAY NIGHT DEVELOPING A SURFACE AND UPPER LOW SOME
ALONG THE NORTHEAST COAST FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE EXITIING
INTO THE MARITIMES BY SATURDAY MORNING. MODELS HAVE COME TOGETHER
AND GENERALLY AGREE ON SCENERIO BUT SOMEWHAT DIFFERENT ON
INTENSITIES. EXPECT LIGHT SNOW TO SPREAD ACROSS NH LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT AND THEN INTO ME BY FRIDAY MORNING. ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
LIGHT. BY LATER IN THE DAY THE STORM DEEPENS OFF THE COAST AND
SOME MORE SIGNIFICANT WRAPAROUND SNOW MAY SPREAD FAR ENOUGH WEST
TO REACH THE MIDCOAST. THE SYSTEM IS PROGRESSIVE SO WILL NOT HAVE
TOO MUCH TIME TO PICK UP A LOT OF MOISTURE. IT DOES APPEAR THAT
SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM AND IT
WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED.

THE SYSTEM EXITS INTO THE MARITIMES BY SATURDAY MORNING WITH
CLEARING AND STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION ON GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.
SUNDAY WILL BE PLEASANT WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION.

ON MONDAY A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM MAY BE IN THE MAKING AS A
SYSTEM MOVING EAST FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ALLOWING THE GULF TO
OPEN AND THEN TRIES TO PHASE WITH ENERGY FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM.
A GOOD DEAL OF QPF WILL BE WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE TRACK WILL BE
CRITICAL AS USUAL. WE WILL BE WATCHING HOW THE MODELS HANDLE THE
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS WITH THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS FOR CLARITY.

OVERALL STAYED CLOSE TO THE SUPERBLEND MODELS FOR THE EXTENDED
GRIDS.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM...LINGERING IFR AND MVFR EARLY IN SNOW AND BLOWING
SNOW...BECOMING VFR THROUGHOUT.

LONG TERM...CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND
MOSTLY IFR FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT IN SNOW. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO
VFR OVER THE WEEKEND AS COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION
WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...A FREEZING SPRAY ADV IS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS MORNING.
GALES REMAIN UP FOR THE WATERS THIS MORNING...THEN SMALL CRAFT
EXPECTED FOR THE BALANCE OF TODAY.

LONG TERM...GALE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT ON NORTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$
JC



000
FXUS61 KCAR 281452
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
952 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE MARITIMES TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE WEST TONIGHT...AND WILL MOVE
EAST OF THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT...AND WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF OF MAINE
FRIDAY. THE LOW WILL SLOWLY PULL AWAY INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
8:40 AM UPDATE...A BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW PERSISTS ACROSS
SOUTHEAST AROOSTOOK COUNTY AND NORTHERN PENOBSCOT COUNTY. THE SNOW
WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AND MOVE AWAY TO THE EAST DURING THE
MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON AS THE STORM MOVES AWAY THROUGH THE MARITIMES
AND HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO PUSH IN FROM THE WEST.

THE INTENSE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT THE BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS TO DOWN EAST MAINE YESTERDAY WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
EAST ACROSS THE COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA TODAY. SOME BANDS OF SNOW
CONTINUE TO ROTATE WESTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN AND DOWN EAST MAINE
AROUND THE DEPARTING LOW EARLY THIS MORNING. THESE SNOW BANDS WILL
DIMINISH LATER THIS MORNING AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO PULL AWAY.
SOME AREAS COULD SEE AND ADDITIONAL INCH OR SO OF SNOW
ACCUMULATION EARLY THIS MORNING. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME AREAS OF
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW TODAY. OTHERWISE EXPECT MAINLY CLOUDY
SKIES TODAY WITH A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS EXPECTED BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID
TEENS NORTH AND MID TEENS TO LOW 20S DOWN EAST.

SKIES WILL CLEAR TONIGHT AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 5 BELOW TO 15 BELOW
ZERO ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS AND 5 BELOW TO 5 ABOVE
ACROSS DOWN EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
***WINTER STORM WATCHES ISSUED FOR LATE THU NIGHT THROUGH SAT
 MORNING***

HIGH PRES CRESTS ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD THU MORNING AND MOVES
EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC. ATTENTION TURNS TO LOW PRES AND AN UPPER
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. THE LOW MOVES INTO THE GULF
OF MAINE FRI WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH TO EXTEND BACK ACROSS MAINE.
THE 700 MB LOW MOVES INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY FRI.

THU WILL BE A DRY DAY...AND AFTER A COLD START TEMPS WILL
MODERATE BACK INTO THE 20S DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE DAY SHOULD
START WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE AND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE NEXT
WEATHER SYSTEM. THE CLOUDS WILL LOWER AND THICKEN THU NIGHT WITH
LOW TEMPERATURES LIKELY TO BE RECORDED DURING THE EVENING WITH
TEMPS TO SLOWLY RISE OVERNIGHT. SNOW WILL DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT
ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW.
INITIALLY THE SYSTEM WILL BE SOMEWHAT MOISTURE STARVED...BUT AS
THE ENERGY REACHES THE COAST DURING THE DAY FRI ATLANTIC MOISTURE
WILL BE FUNNELED BACK ACROSS THE REGION. THERE IS STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHERE THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL FALL. THE MODELS
DIFFER ON THE POSITION OF BOTH THE SFC AND MID LEVEL LOWS WHICH
WILL HAVE IMPLICATIONS ON THE DISTRIBUTION OF THE HEAVIEST
SNOWFALL. IT IS EVEN POSSIBLE THAT IF THE LOW IS CLOSE ENOUGH TO
THE COAST THAT SOME COASTAL AREAS MAY HAVE ENOUGH WARM AIR MOVE IN
FOR A CHANGEOVER TO RAIN AT SOME POINT DURING THE EVENT. DESPITE
SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IS GREATER THAN 50
PERCENT THAT A LARGE PORTION OF THE CWA WILL REACH WARNING
CRITERIA SNOWFALL...AND THUS WILL ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE SNOW WILL CONTINUE FRI NIGHT AS THE LOW BEGINS TO PULL INTO
THE MARITIMES AND WRAPS MOISTURE BACK ACROSS THE REGION. THE SNOW
WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION SAT. DRY AND
COLD WEATHER FOLLOWS FOR SAT NIGHT AND SUN AS HIGH PRES BRIEFLY
BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE AREA. THE THIRD IN A SERIES OF LOWS LOOKS
TO AFFECT THE REGION MON INTO MON NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
IN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET AND MOVES TOWARD THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST MONDAY. THERE ARE DIFFERENCES ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW...BUT
WITH A VERY COLD AIR MASS IN PLACE A TRACK ACROSS MAINE (12Z ECWMF
AND 00Z GFS) IS NOT FAVORED AS THE BEST BAROCLINC ZONE IS LIKELY
TO LIE FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. AT THIS TIME
WOULD SUSPECT THE BEST CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS WOULD
BE ACROSS THE DOWN EAST REGION AND INTO PARTS OF NORTHEAST MAINE.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING
IN LINGERING LIGHT SNOW OTHERWISE A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO VFR CAN
BE EXPECTED TODAY ALONG WITH SOME BLOWING SNOW. VFR WILL THEN
CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: VFR THU THROUGH THU EVENING.  CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
LOWER TO MVFR LATE THU NIGHT OR EARLY FRI MORNING IN -SN.
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE TO IFR AND POSSIBLE VLIFR IN
SNOW DURING THE DAY FRI AND CONTINUING INTO SAT MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: THE GALE WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED TO 4 PM THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS GUSTING UP TO 35 KT ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DIMINISH LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO MOVE IN. FREEZING
SPRAY WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM: THE WIND AND WAVES WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH THU NIGHT.  A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED FRIDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF GALES LATER FRI
NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING AS LOW PRES PULLS AWAY FROM THE WATERS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
A RECORD DAILY SNOWFALL OF 13.3" WAS OBSERVED YESTERDAY
AT BANGOR, MAINE. THIS BROKE THE PREVIOUS RECORD OF 10.8", SET IN
1963.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
     MORNING FOR MEZ002-005-006-011-017-030-032.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
     MORNING FOR MEZ001-003-004-010-015-016-029-031.
MARINE...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ052.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DUDA/MCB
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM...CB
AVIATION...DUDA/CB
MARINE...DUDA/CB
CLIMATE...CB




000
FXUS61 KCAR 281452
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
952 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE MARITIMES TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE WEST TONIGHT...AND WILL MOVE
EAST OF THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT...AND WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF OF MAINE
FRIDAY. THE LOW WILL SLOWLY PULL AWAY INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
8:40 AM UPDATE...A BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW PERSISTS ACROSS
SOUTHEAST AROOSTOOK COUNTY AND NORTHERN PENOBSCOT COUNTY. THE SNOW
WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AND MOVE AWAY TO THE EAST DURING THE
MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON AS THE STORM MOVES AWAY THROUGH THE MARITIMES
AND HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO PUSH IN FROM THE WEST.

THE INTENSE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT THE BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS TO DOWN EAST MAINE YESTERDAY WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
EAST ACROSS THE COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA TODAY. SOME BANDS OF SNOW
CONTINUE TO ROTATE WESTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN AND DOWN EAST MAINE
AROUND THE DEPARTING LOW EARLY THIS MORNING. THESE SNOW BANDS WILL
DIMINISH LATER THIS MORNING AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO PULL AWAY.
SOME AREAS COULD SEE AND ADDITIONAL INCH OR SO OF SNOW
ACCUMULATION EARLY THIS MORNING. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME AREAS OF
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW TODAY. OTHERWISE EXPECT MAINLY CLOUDY
SKIES TODAY WITH A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS EXPECTED BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID
TEENS NORTH AND MID TEENS TO LOW 20S DOWN EAST.

SKIES WILL CLEAR TONIGHT AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 5 BELOW TO 15 BELOW
ZERO ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS AND 5 BELOW TO 5 ABOVE
ACROSS DOWN EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
***WINTER STORM WATCHES ISSUED FOR LATE THU NIGHT THROUGH SAT
 MORNING***

HIGH PRES CRESTS ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD THU MORNING AND MOVES
EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC. ATTENTION TURNS TO LOW PRES AND AN UPPER
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. THE LOW MOVES INTO THE GULF
OF MAINE FRI WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH TO EXTEND BACK ACROSS MAINE.
THE 700 MB LOW MOVES INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY FRI.

THU WILL BE A DRY DAY...AND AFTER A COLD START TEMPS WILL
MODERATE BACK INTO THE 20S DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE DAY SHOULD
START WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE AND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE NEXT
WEATHER SYSTEM. THE CLOUDS WILL LOWER AND THICKEN THU NIGHT WITH
LOW TEMPERATURES LIKELY TO BE RECORDED DURING THE EVENING WITH
TEMPS TO SLOWLY RISE OVERNIGHT. SNOW WILL DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT
ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW.
INITIALLY THE SYSTEM WILL BE SOMEWHAT MOISTURE STARVED...BUT AS
THE ENERGY REACHES THE COAST DURING THE DAY FRI ATLANTIC MOISTURE
WILL BE FUNNELED BACK ACROSS THE REGION. THERE IS STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHERE THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL FALL. THE MODELS
DIFFER ON THE POSITION OF BOTH THE SFC AND MID LEVEL LOWS WHICH
WILL HAVE IMPLICATIONS ON THE DISTRIBUTION OF THE HEAVIEST
SNOWFALL. IT IS EVEN POSSIBLE THAT IF THE LOW IS CLOSE ENOUGH TO
THE COAST THAT SOME COASTAL AREAS MAY HAVE ENOUGH WARM AIR MOVE IN
FOR A CHANGEOVER TO RAIN AT SOME POINT DURING THE EVENT. DESPITE
SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IS GREATER THAN 50
PERCENT THAT A LARGE PORTION OF THE CWA WILL REACH WARNING
CRITERIA SNOWFALL...AND THUS WILL ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE SNOW WILL CONTINUE FRI NIGHT AS THE LOW BEGINS TO PULL INTO
THE MARITIMES AND WRAPS MOISTURE BACK ACROSS THE REGION. THE SNOW
WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION SAT. DRY AND
COLD WEATHER FOLLOWS FOR SAT NIGHT AND SUN AS HIGH PRES BRIEFLY
BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE AREA. THE THIRD IN A SERIES OF LOWS LOOKS
TO AFFECT THE REGION MON INTO MON NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
IN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET AND MOVES TOWARD THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST MONDAY. THERE ARE DIFFERENCES ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW...BUT
WITH A VERY COLD AIR MASS IN PLACE A TRACK ACROSS MAINE (12Z ECWMF
AND 00Z GFS) IS NOT FAVORED AS THE BEST BAROCLINC ZONE IS LIKELY
TO LIE FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. AT THIS TIME
WOULD SUSPECT THE BEST CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS WOULD
BE ACROSS THE DOWN EAST REGION AND INTO PARTS OF NORTHEAST MAINE.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING
IN LINGERING LIGHT SNOW OTHERWISE A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO VFR CAN
BE EXPECTED TODAY ALONG WITH SOME BLOWING SNOW. VFR WILL THEN
CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: VFR THU THROUGH THU EVENING.  CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
LOWER TO MVFR LATE THU NIGHT OR EARLY FRI MORNING IN -SN.
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE TO IFR AND POSSIBLE VLIFR IN
SNOW DURING THE DAY FRI AND CONTINUING INTO SAT MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: THE GALE WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED TO 4 PM THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS GUSTING UP TO 35 KT ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DIMINISH LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO MOVE IN. FREEZING
SPRAY WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM: THE WIND AND WAVES WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH THU NIGHT.  A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED FRIDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF GALES LATER FRI
NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING AS LOW PRES PULLS AWAY FROM THE WATERS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
A RECORD DAILY SNOWFALL OF 13.3" WAS OBSERVED YESTERDAY
AT BANGOR, MAINE. THIS BROKE THE PREVIOUS RECORD OF 10.8", SET IN
1963.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
     MORNING FOR MEZ002-005-006-011-017-030-032.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
     MORNING FOR MEZ001-003-004-010-015-016-029-031.
MARINE...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ052.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DUDA/MCB
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM...CB
AVIATION...DUDA/CB
MARINE...DUDA/CB
CLIMATE...CB



000
FXUS61 KCAR 281343
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
843 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE MARITIMES TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE WEST TONIGHT...AND WILL MOVE
EAST OF THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT...AND WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF OF MAINE
FRIDAY. THE LOW WILL SLOWLY PULL AWAY INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
8:40 AM UPDATE...A BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW PERSISTS ACROSS
SOUTHEAST AROOSTOOK COUNTY AND NORTHERN PENOBSCOT COUNTY. THE SNOW
WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AND MOVE AWAY TO THE EAST DURING THE
MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON AS THE STORM MOVES AWAY THROUGH THE MARITIMES
AND HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO PUSH IN FROM THE WEST.

THE INTENSE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT THE BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS TO DOWN EAST MAINE YESTERDAY WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
EAST ACROSS THE COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA TODAY. SOME BANDS OF SNOW
CONTINUE TO ROTATE WESTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN AND DOWN EAST MAINE
AROUND THE DEPARTING LOW EARLY THIS MORNING. THESE SNOW BANDS WILL
DIMINISH LATER THIS MORNING AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO PULL AWAY.
SOME AREAS COULD SEE AND ADDITIONAL INCH OR SO OF SNOW
ACCUMULATION EARLY THIS MORNING. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME AREAS OF
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW TODAY. OTHERWISE EXPECT MAINLY CLOUDY
SKIES TODAY WITH A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS EXPECTED BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID
TEENS NORTH AND MID TEENS TO LOW 20S DOWN EAST.

SKIES WILL CLEAR TONIGHT AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 5 BELOW TO 15 BELOW
ZERO ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS AND 5 BELOW TO 5 ABOVE
ACROSS DOWN EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
***WINTER STORM WATCHES ISSUED FOR LATE THU NIGHT THROUGH SAT
 MORNING***

HIGH PRES CRESTS ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD THU MORNING AND MOVES
EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC. ATTENTION TURNS TO LOW PRES AND AN UPPER
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. THE LOW MOVES INTO THE GULF
OF MAINE FRI WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH TO EXTEND BACK ACROSS MAINE.
THE 700 MB LOW MOVES INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY FRI.

THU WILL BE A DRY DAY...AND AFTER A COLD START TEMPS WILL
MODERATE BACK INTO THE 20S DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE DAY SHOULD
START WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE AND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE NEXT
WEATHER SYSTEM. THE CLOUDS WILL LOWER AND THICKEN THU NIGHT WITH
LOW TEMPERATURES LIKELY TO BE RECORDED DURING THE EVENING WITH
TEMPS TO SLOWLY RISE OVERNIGHT. SNOW WILL DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT
ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW.
INITIALLY THE SYSTEM WILL BE SOMEWHAT MOISTURE STARVED...BUT AS
THE ENERGY REACHES THE COAST DURING THE DAY FRI ATLANTIC MOISTURE
WILL BE FUNNELED BACK ACROSS THE REGION. THERE IS STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHERE THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL FALL. THE MODELS
DIFFER ON THE POSITION OF BOTH THE SFC AND MID LEVEL LOWS WHICH
WILL HAVE IMPLICATIONS ON THE DISTRIBUTION OF THE HEAVIEST
SNOWFALL. IT IS EVEN POSSIBLE THAT IF THE LOW IS CLOSE ENOUGH TO
THE COAST THAT SOME COASTAL AREAS MAY HAVE ENOUGH WARM AIR MOVE IN
FOR A CHANGEOVER TO RAIN AT SOME POINT DURING THE EVENT. DESPITE
SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IS GREATER THAN 50
PERCENT THAT A LARGE PORTION OF THE CWA WILL REACH WARNING
CRITERIA SNOWFALL...AND THUS WILL ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE SNOW WILL CONTINUE FRI NIGHT AS THE LOW BEGINS TO PULL INTO
THE MARITIMES AND WRAPS MOISTURE BACK ACROSS THE REGION. THE SNOW
WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION SAT. DRY AND
COLD WEATHER FOLLOWS FOR SAT NIGHT AND SUN AS HIGH PRES BRIEFLY
BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE AREA. THE THIRD IN A SERIES OF LOWS LOOKS
TO AFFECT THE REGION MON INTO MON NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
IN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET AND MOVES TOWARD THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST MONDAY. THERE ARE DIFFERENCES ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW...BUT
WITH A VERY COLD AIR MASS IN PLACE A TRACK ACROSS MAINE (12Z ECWMF
AND 00Z GFS) IS NOT FAVORED AS THE BEST BAROCLINC ZONE IS LIKELY
TO LIE FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. AT THIS TIME
WOULD SUSPECT THE BEST CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS WOULD
BE ACROSS THE DOWN EAST REGION AND INTO PARTS OF NORTHEAST MAINE.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING
IN LINGERING LIGHT SNOW OTHERWISE A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO VFR CAN
BE EXPECTED TODAY ALONG WITH SOME BLOWING SNOW. VFR WILL THEN
CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: VFR THU THROUGH THU EVENING.  CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
LOWER TO MVFR LATE THU NIGHT OR EARLY FRI MORNING IN -SN.
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE TO IFR AND POSSIBLE VLIFR IN
SNOW DURING THE DAY FRI AND CONTINUING INTO SAT MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM AND SMALL
CRAFT CONDITIONS CAN THEN BE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO
TONIGHT. SOME FREEZING SPRAY CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: THE WIND AND WAVES WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH THU NIGHT.  A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED FRIDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF GALES LATER FRI
NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING AS LOW PRES PULLS AWAY FROM THE WATERS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
A RECORD DAILY SNOWFALL OF 13.3" WAS OBSERVED YESTERDAY
AT BANGOR, MAINE. THIS BROKE THE PREVIOUS RECORD OF 10.8", SET IN
1963.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
     MORNING FOR MEZ002-005-006-011-017-030-032.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
     MORNING FOR MEZ001-003-004-010-015-016-029-031.
MARINE...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ052.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DUDA/MCB
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM...CB
AVIATION...DUDA/CB
MARINE...DUDA/CB
CLIMATE...CB




000
FXUS61 KCAR 281343
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
843 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE MARITIMES TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE WEST TONIGHT...AND WILL MOVE
EAST OF THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT...AND WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF OF MAINE
FRIDAY. THE LOW WILL SLOWLY PULL AWAY INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
8:40 AM UPDATE...A BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW PERSISTS ACROSS
SOUTHEAST AROOSTOOK COUNTY AND NORTHERN PENOBSCOT COUNTY. THE SNOW
WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AND MOVE AWAY TO THE EAST DURING THE
MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON AS THE STORM MOVES AWAY THROUGH THE MARITIMES
AND HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO PUSH IN FROM THE WEST.

THE INTENSE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT THE BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS TO DOWN EAST MAINE YESTERDAY WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
EAST ACROSS THE COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA TODAY. SOME BANDS OF SNOW
CONTINUE TO ROTATE WESTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN AND DOWN EAST MAINE
AROUND THE DEPARTING LOW EARLY THIS MORNING. THESE SNOW BANDS WILL
DIMINISH LATER THIS MORNING AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO PULL AWAY.
SOME AREAS COULD SEE AND ADDITIONAL INCH OR SO OF SNOW
ACCUMULATION EARLY THIS MORNING. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME AREAS OF
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW TODAY. OTHERWISE EXPECT MAINLY CLOUDY
SKIES TODAY WITH A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS EXPECTED BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID
TEENS NORTH AND MID TEENS TO LOW 20S DOWN EAST.

SKIES WILL CLEAR TONIGHT AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 5 BELOW TO 15 BELOW
ZERO ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS AND 5 BELOW TO 5 ABOVE
ACROSS DOWN EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
***WINTER STORM WATCHES ISSUED FOR LATE THU NIGHT THROUGH SAT
 MORNING***

HIGH PRES CRESTS ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD THU MORNING AND MOVES
EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC. ATTENTION TURNS TO LOW PRES AND AN UPPER
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. THE LOW MOVES INTO THE GULF
OF MAINE FRI WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH TO EXTEND BACK ACROSS MAINE.
THE 700 MB LOW MOVES INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY FRI.

THU WILL BE A DRY DAY...AND AFTER A COLD START TEMPS WILL
MODERATE BACK INTO THE 20S DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE DAY SHOULD
START WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE AND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE NEXT
WEATHER SYSTEM. THE CLOUDS WILL LOWER AND THICKEN THU NIGHT WITH
LOW TEMPERATURES LIKELY TO BE RECORDED DURING THE EVENING WITH
TEMPS TO SLOWLY RISE OVERNIGHT. SNOW WILL DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT
ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW.
INITIALLY THE SYSTEM WILL BE SOMEWHAT MOISTURE STARVED...BUT AS
THE ENERGY REACHES THE COAST DURING THE DAY FRI ATLANTIC MOISTURE
WILL BE FUNNELED BACK ACROSS THE REGION. THERE IS STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHERE THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL FALL. THE MODELS
DIFFER ON THE POSITION OF BOTH THE SFC AND MID LEVEL LOWS WHICH
WILL HAVE IMPLICATIONS ON THE DISTRIBUTION OF THE HEAVIEST
SNOWFALL. IT IS EVEN POSSIBLE THAT IF THE LOW IS CLOSE ENOUGH TO
THE COAST THAT SOME COASTAL AREAS MAY HAVE ENOUGH WARM AIR MOVE IN
FOR A CHANGEOVER TO RAIN AT SOME POINT DURING THE EVENT. DESPITE
SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IS GREATER THAN 50
PERCENT THAT A LARGE PORTION OF THE CWA WILL REACH WARNING
CRITERIA SNOWFALL...AND THUS WILL ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE SNOW WILL CONTINUE FRI NIGHT AS THE LOW BEGINS TO PULL INTO
THE MARITIMES AND WRAPS MOISTURE BACK ACROSS THE REGION. THE SNOW
WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION SAT. DRY AND
COLD WEATHER FOLLOWS FOR SAT NIGHT AND SUN AS HIGH PRES BRIEFLY
BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE AREA. THE THIRD IN A SERIES OF LOWS LOOKS
TO AFFECT THE REGION MON INTO MON NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
IN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET AND MOVES TOWARD THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST MONDAY. THERE ARE DIFFERENCES ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW...BUT
WITH A VERY COLD AIR MASS IN PLACE A TRACK ACROSS MAINE (12Z ECWMF
AND 00Z GFS) IS NOT FAVORED AS THE BEST BAROCLINC ZONE IS LIKELY
TO LIE FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. AT THIS TIME
WOULD SUSPECT THE BEST CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS WOULD
BE ACROSS THE DOWN EAST REGION AND INTO PARTS OF NORTHEAST MAINE.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING
IN LINGERING LIGHT SNOW OTHERWISE A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO VFR CAN
BE EXPECTED TODAY ALONG WITH SOME BLOWING SNOW. VFR WILL THEN
CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: VFR THU THROUGH THU EVENING.  CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
LOWER TO MVFR LATE THU NIGHT OR EARLY FRI MORNING IN -SN.
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE TO IFR AND POSSIBLE VLIFR IN
SNOW DURING THE DAY FRI AND CONTINUING INTO SAT MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM AND SMALL
CRAFT CONDITIONS CAN THEN BE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO
TONIGHT. SOME FREEZING SPRAY CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: THE WIND AND WAVES WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH THU NIGHT.  A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED FRIDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF GALES LATER FRI
NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING AS LOW PRES PULLS AWAY FROM THE WATERS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
A RECORD DAILY SNOWFALL OF 13.3" WAS OBSERVED YESTERDAY
AT BANGOR, MAINE. THIS BROKE THE PREVIOUS RECORD OF 10.8", SET IN
1963.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
     MORNING FOR MEZ002-005-006-011-017-030-032.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
     MORNING FOR MEZ001-003-004-010-015-016-029-031.
MARINE...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ052.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DUDA/MCB
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM...CB
AVIATION...DUDA/CB
MARINE...DUDA/CB
CLIMATE...CB



000
FXUS61 KCAR 281148
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
648 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE MARITIMES TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE WEST TONIGHT...AND WILL MOVE
EAST OF THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT...AND WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF OF MAINE
FRIDAY. THE LOW WILL SLOWLY PULL AWAY INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE AREA JUST BEFORE DAYBREAK THIS
MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ANY
LOCALIZED ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN
AN INCH BEFORE THE SNOW TAPERS OFF. JUST MINOR TWEAKS TO HOURLY
GRIDS THIS MORNING. HAVE ALSO CANCELLED THE COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY WITH THIS UPDATE.

THE INTENSE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT THE BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS TO DOWN EAST MAINE YESTERDAY WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
EAST ACROSS THE COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA TODAY. SOME BANDS OF SNOW
CONTINUE TO ROTATE WESTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN AND DOWN EAST MAINE
AROUND THE DEPARTING LOW EARLY THIS MORNING. THESE SNOW BANDS WILL
DIMINISH LATER THIS MORNING AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO PULL AWAY.
SOME AREAS COULD SEE AND ADDITIONAL INCH OR SO OF SNOW
ACCUMULATION EARLY THIS MORNING. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME AREAS OF
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW TODAY. OTHERWISE EXPECT MAINLY CLOUDY
SKIES TODAY WITH A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS EXPECTED BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID
TEENS NORTH AND MID TEENS TO LOW 20S DOWN EAST.

SKIES WILL CLEAR TONIGHT AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 5 BELOW TO 15 BELOW
ZERO ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS AND 5 BELOW TO 5 ABOVE
ACROSS DOWN EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
***WINTER STORM WATCHES ISSUED FOR LATE THU NIGHT THROUGH SAT
 MORNING***

HIGH PRES CRESTS ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD THU MORNING AND MOVES
EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC. ATTENTION TURNS TO LOW PRES AND AN UPPER
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. THE LOW MOVES INTO THE GULF
OF MAINE FRI WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH TO EXTEND BACK ACROSS MAINE.
THE 700 MB LOW MOVES INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY FRI.

THU WILL BE A DRY DAY...AND AFTER A COLD START TEMPS WILL
MODERATE BACK INTO THE 20S DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE DAY SHOULD
START WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE AND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE NEXT
WEATHER SYSTEM. THE CLOUDS WILL LOWER AND THICKEN THU NIGHT WITH
LOW TEMPERATURES LIKELY TO BE RECORDED DURING THE EVENING WITH
TEMPS TO SLOWLY RISE OVERNIGHT. SNOW WILL DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT
ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW.
INITIALLY THE SYSTEM WILL BE SOMEWHAT MOISTURE STARVED...BUT AS
THE ENERGY REACHES THE COAST DURING THE DAY FRI ATLANTIC MOISTURE
WILL BE FUNNELED BACK ACROSS THE REGION. THERE IS STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHERE THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL FALL. THE MODELS
DIFFER ON THE POSITION OF BOTH THE SFC AND MID LEVEL LOWS WHICH
WILL HAVE IMPLICATIONS ON THE DISTRIBUTION OF THE HEAVIEST
SNOWFALL. IT IS EVEN POSSIBLE THAT IF THE LOW IS CLOSE ENOUGH TO
THE COAST THAT SOME COASTAL AREAS MAY HAVE ENOUGH WARM AIR MOVE IN
FOR A CHANGEOVER TO RAIN AT SOME POINT DURING THE EVENT. DESPITE
SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IS GREATER THAN 50
PERCENT THAT A LARGE PORTION OF THE CWA WILL REACH WARNING
CRITERIA SNOWFALL...AND THUS WILL ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE SNOW WILL CONTINUE FRI NIGHT AS THE LOW BEGINS TO PULL INTO
THE MARITIMES AND WRAPS MOISTURE BACK ACROSS THE REGION. THE SNOW
WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION SAT. DRY AND
COLD WEATHER FOLLOWS FOR SAT NIGHT AND SUN AS HIGH PRES BRIEFLY
BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE AREA. THE THIRD IN A SERIES OF LOWS LOOKS
TO AFFECT THE REGION MON INTO MON NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
IN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET AND MOVES TOWARD THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST MONDAY. THERE ARE DIFFERENCES ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW...BUT
WITH A VERY COLD AIR MASS IN PLACE A TRACK ACROSS MAINE (12Z ECWMF
AND 00Z GFS) IS NOT FAVORED AS THE BEST BAROCLINC ZONE IS LIKELY
TO LIE FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. AT THIS TIME
WOULD SUSPECT THE BEST CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS WOULD
BE ACROSS THE DOWN EAST REGION AND INTO PARTS OF NORTHEAST MAINE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING
IN LINGERING LIGHT SNOW OTHERWISE A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO VFR CAN
BE EXPECTED TODAY ALONG WITH SOME BLOWING SNOW. VFR WILL THEN
CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: VFR THU THROUGH THU EVENING.  CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
LOWER TO MVFR LATE THU NIGHT OR EARLY FRI MORNING IN -SN.
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE TO IFR AND POSSIBLE VLIFR IN
SNOW DURING THE DAY FRI AND CONTINUING INTO SAT MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM AND SMALL
CRAFT CONDITIONS CAN THEN BE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO
TONIGHT. SOME FREEZING SPRAY CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: THE WIND AND WAVES WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH THU NIGHT.  A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED FRIDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF GALES LATER FRI
NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING AS LOW PRES PULLS AWAY FROM THE WATERS.

&&


.CLIMATE...
A RECORD DAILY SNOWFALL OF 13.3" WAS OBSERVED YESTERDAY
AT BANGOR, MAINE. THIS BROKE THE PREVIOUS RECORD OF 10.8", SET IN
1963.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
     MORNING FOR MEZ002-005-006-011-017-030-032.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
     MORNING FOR MEZ001-003-004-010-015-016-029-031.
MARINE...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ052.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DUDA
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM...CB
AVIATION...DUDA/CB
MARINE...DUDA/CB
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CLIMATE...CB




000
FXUS61 KCAR 281148
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
648 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE MARITIMES TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE WEST TONIGHT...AND WILL MOVE
EAST OF THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT...AND WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF OF MAINE
FRIDAY. THE LOW WILL SLOWLY PULL AWAY INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE AREA JUST BEFORE DAYBREAK THIS
MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ANY
LOCALIZED ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN
AN INCH BEFORE THE SNOW TAPERS OFF. JUST MINOR TWEAKS TO HOURLY
GRIDS THIS MORNING. HAVE ALSO CANCELLED THE COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY WITH THIS UPDATE.

THE INTENSE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT THE BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS TO DOWN EAST MAINE YESTERDAY WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
EAST ACROSS THE COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA TODAY. SOME BANDS OF SNOW
CONTINUE TO ROTATE WESTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN AND DOWN EAST MAINE
AROUND THE DEPARTING LOW EARLY THIS MORNING. THESE SNOW BANDS WILL
DIMINISH LATER THIS MORNING AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO PULL AWAY.
SOME AREAS COULD SEE AND ADDITIONAL INCH OR SO OF SNOW
ACCUMULATION EARLY THIS MORNING. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME AREAS OF
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW TODAY. OTHERWISE EXPECT MAINLY CLOUDY
SKIES TODAY WITH A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS EXPECTED BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID
TEENS NORTH AND MID TEENS TO LOW 20S DOWN EAST.

SKIES WILL CLEAR TONIGHT AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 5 BELOW TO 15 BELOW
ZERO ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS AND 5 BELOW TO 5 ABOVE
ACROSS DOWN EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
***WINTER STORM WATCHES ISSUED FOR LATE THU NIGHT THROUGH SAT
 MORNING***

HIGH PRES CRESTS ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD THU MORNING AND MOVES
EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC. ATTENTION TURNS TO LOW PRES AND AN UPPER
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. THE LOW MOVES INTO THE GULF
OF MAINE FRI WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH TO EXTEND BACK ACROSS MAINE.
THE 700 MB LOW MOVES INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY FRI.

THU WILL BE A DRY DAY...AND AFTER A COLD START TEMPS WILL
MODERATE BACK INTO THE 20S DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE DAY SHOULD
START WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE AND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE NEXT
WEATHER SYSTEM. THE CLOUDS WILL LOWER AND THICKEN THU NIGHT WITH
LOW TEMPERATURES LIKELY TO BE RECORDED DURING THE EVENING WITH
TEMPS TO SLOWLY RISE OVERNIGHT. SNOW WILL DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT
ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW.
INITIALLY THE SYSTEM WILL BE SOMEWHAT MOISTURE STARVED...BUT AS
THE ENERGY REACHES THE COAST DURING THE DAY FRI ATLANTIC MOISTURE
WILL BE FUNNELED BACK ACROSS THE REGION. THERE IS STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHERE THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL FALL. THE MODELS
DIFFER ON THE POSITION OF BOTH THE SFC AND MID LEVEL LOWS WHICH
WILL HAVE IMPLICATIONS ON THE DISTRIBUTION OF THE HEAVIEST
SNOWFALL. IT IS EVEN POSSIBLE THAT IF THE LOW IS CLOSE ENOUGH TO
THE COAST THAT SOME COASTAL AREAS MAY HAVE ENOUGH WARM AIR MOVE IN
FOR A CHANGEOVER TO RAIN AT SOME POINT DURING THE EVENT. DESPITE
SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IS GREATER THAN 50
PERCENT THAT A LARGE PORTION OF THE CWA WILL REACH WARNING
CRITERIA SNOWFALL...AND THUS WILL ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE SNOW WILL CONTINUE FRI NIGHT AS THE LOW BEGINS TO PULL INTO
THE MARITIMES AND WRAPS MOISTURE BACK ACROSS THE REGION. THE SNOW
WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION SAT. DRY AND
COLD WEATHER FOLLOWS FOR SAT NIGHT AND SUN AS HIGH PRES BRIEFLY
BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE AREA. THE THIRD IN A SERIES OF LOWS LOOKS
TO AFFECT THE REGION MON INTO MON NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
IN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET AND MOVES TOWARD THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST MONDAY. THERE ARE DIFFERENCES ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW...BUT
WITH A VERY COLD AIR MASS IN PLACE A TRACK ACROSS MAINE (12Z ECWMF
AND 00Z GFS) IS NOT FAVORED AS THE BEST BAROCLINC ZONE IS LIKELY
TO LIE FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. AT THIS TIME
WOULD SUSPECT THE BEST CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS WOULD
BE ACROSS THE DOWN EAST REGION AND INTO PARTS OF NORTHEAST MAINE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING
IN LINGERING LIGHT SNOW OTHERWISE A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO VFR CAN
BE EXPECTED TODAY ALONG WITH SOME BLOWING SNOW. VFR WILL THEN
CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: VFR THU THROUGH THU EVENING.  CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
LOWER TO MVFR LATE THU NIGHT OR EARLY FRI MORNING IN -SN.
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE TO IFR AND POSSIBLE VLIFR IN
SNOW DURING THE DAY FRI AND CONTINUING INTO SAT MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM AND SMALL
CRAFT CONDITIONS CAN THEN BE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO
TONIGHT. SOME FREEZING SPRAY CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: THE WIND AND WAVES WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH THU NIGHT.  A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED FRIDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF GALES LATER FRI
NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING AS LOW PRES PULLS AWAY FROM THE WATERS.

&&


.CLIMATE...
A RECORD DAILY SNOWFALL OF 13.3" WAS OBSERVED YESTERDAY
AT BANGOR, MAINE. THIS BROKE THE PREVIOUS RECORD OF 10.8", SET IN
1963.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
     MORNING FOR MEZ002-005-006-011-017-030-032.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
     MORNING FOR MEZ001-003-004-010-015-016-029-031.
MARINE...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ052.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DUDA
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM...CB
AVIATION...DUDA/CB
MARINE...DUDA/CB
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CLIMATE...CB




000
FXUS61 KCAR 281148
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
648 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE MARITIMES TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE WEST TONIGHT...AND WILL MOVE
EAST OF THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT...AND WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF OF MAINE
FRIDAY. THE LOW WILL SLOWLY PULL AWAY INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE AREA JUST BEFORE DAYBREAK THIS
MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ANY
LOCALIZED ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN
AN INCH BEFORE THE SNOW TAPERS OFF. JUST MINOR TWEAKS TO HOURLY
GRIDS THIS MORNING. HAVE ALSO CANCELLED THE COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY WITH THIS UPDATE.

THE INTENSE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT THE BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS TO DOWN EAST MAINE YESTERDAY WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
EAST ACROSS THE COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA TODAY. SOME BANDS OF SNOW
CONTINUE TO ROTATE WESTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN AND DOWN EAST MAINE
AROUND THE DEPARTING LOW EARLY THIS MORNING. THESE SNOW BANDS WILL
DIMINISH LATER THIS MORNING AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO PULL AWAY.
SOME AREAS COULD SEE AND ADDITIONAL INCH OR SO OF SNOW
ACCUMULATION EARLY THIS MORNING. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME AREAS OF
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW TODAY. OTHERWISE EXPECT MAINLY CLOUDY
SKIES TODAY WITH A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS EXPECTED BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID
TEENS NORTH AND MID TEENS TO LOW 20S DOWN EAST.

SKIES WILL CLEAR TONIGHT AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 5 BELOW TO 15 BELOW
ZERO ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS AND 5 BELOW TO 5 ABOVE
ACROSS DOWN EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
***WINTER STORM WATCHES ISSUED FOR LATE THU NIGHT THROUGH SAT
 MORNING***

HIGH PRES CRESTS ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD THU MORNING AND MOVES
EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC. ATTENTION TURNS TO LOW PRES AND AN UPPER
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. THE LOW MOVES INTO THE GULF
OF MAINE FRI WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH TO EXTEND BACK ACROSS MAINE.
THE 700 MB LOW MOVES INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY FRI.

THU WILL BE A DRY DAY...AND AFTER A COLD START TEMPS WILL
MODERATE BACK INTO THE 20S DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE DAY SHOULD
START WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE AND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE NEXT
WEATHER SYSTEM. THE CLOUDS WILL LOWER AND THICKEN THU NIGHT WITH
LOW TEMPERATURES LIKELY TO BE RECORDED DURING THE EVENING WITH
TEMPS TO SLOWLY RISE OVERNIGHT. SNOW WILL DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT
ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW.
INITIALLY THE SYSTEM WILL BE SOMEWHAT MOISTURE STARVED...BUT AS
THE ENERGY REACHES THE COAST DURING THE DAY FRI ATLANTIC MOISTURE
WILL BE FUNNELED BACK ACROSS THE REGION. THERE IS STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHERE THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL FALL. THE MODELS
DIFFER ON THE POSITION OF BOTH THE SFC AND MID LEVEL LOWS WHICH
WILL HAVE IMPLICATIONS ON THE DISTRIBUTION OF THE HEAVIEST
SNOWFALL. IT IS EVEN POSSIBLE THAT IF THE LOW IS CLOSE ENOUGH TO
THE COAST THAT SOME COASTAL AREAS MAY HAVE ENOUGH WARM AIR MOVE IN
FOR A CHANGEOVER TO RAIN AT SOME POINT DURING THE EVENT. DESPITE
SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IS GREATER THAN 50
PERCENT THAT A LARGE PORTION OF THE CWA WILL REACH WARNING
CRITERIA SNOWFALL...AND THUS WILL ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE SNOW WILL CONTINUE FRI NIGHT AS THE LOW BEGINS TO PULL INTO
THE MARITIMES AND WRAPS MOISTURE BACK ACROSS THE REGION. THE SNOW
WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION SAT. DRY AND
COLD WEATHER FOLLOWS FOR SAT NIGHT AND SUN AS HIGH PRES BRIEFLY
BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE AREA. THE THIRD IN A SERIES OF LOWS LOOKS
TO AFFECT THE REGION MON INTO MON NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
IN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET AND MOVES TOWARD THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST MONDAY. THERE ARE DIFFERENCES ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW...BUT
WITH A VERY COLD AIR MASS IN PLACE A TRACK ACROSS MAINE (12Z ECWMF
AND 00Z GFS) IS NOT FAVORED AS THE BEST BAROCLINC ZONE IS LIKELY
TO LIE FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. AT THIS TIME
WOULD SUSPECT THE BEST CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS WOULD
BE ACROSS THE DOWN EAST REGION AND INTO PARTS OF NORTHEAST MAINE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING
IN LINGERING LIGHT SNOW OTHERWISE A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO VFR CAN
BE EXPECTED TODAY ALONG WITH SOME BLOWING SNOW. VFR WILL THEN
CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: VFR THU THROUGH THU EVENING.  CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
LOWER TO MVFR LATE THU NIGHT OR EARLY FRI MORNING IN -SN.
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE TO IFR AND POSSIBLE VLIFR IN
SNOW DURING THE DAY FRI AND CONTINUING INTO SAT MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM AND SMALL
CRAFT CONDITIONS CAN THEN BE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO
TONIGHT. SOME FREEZING SPRAY CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: THE WIND AND WAVES WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH THU NIGHT.  A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED FRIDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF GALES LATER FRI
NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING AS LOW PRES PULLS AWAY FROM THE WATERS.

&&


.CLIMATE...
A RECORD DAILY SNOWFALL OF 13.3" WAS OBSERVED YESTERDAY
AT BANGOR, MAINE. THIS BROKE THE PREVIOUS RECORD OF 10.8", SET IN
1963.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
     MORNING FOR MEZ002-005-006-011-017-030-032.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
     MORNING FOR MEZ001-003-004-010-015-016-029-031.
MARINE...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ052.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DUDA
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM...CB
AVIATION...DUDA/CB
MARINE...DUDA/CB
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CLIMATE...CB




000
FXUS61 KCAR 281148
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
648 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE MARITIMES TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE WEST TONIGHT...AND WILL MOVE
EAST OF THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT...AND WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF OF MAINE
FRIDAY. THE LOW WILL SLOWLY PULL AWAY INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE AREA JUST BEFORE DAYBREAK THIS
MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ANY
LOCALIZED ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN
AN INCH BEFORE THE SNOW TAPERS OFF. JUST MINOR TWEAKS TO HOURLY
GRIDS THIS MORNING. HAVE ALSO CANCELLED THE COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY WITH THIS UPDATE.

THE INTENSE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT THE BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS TO DOWN EAST MAINE YESTERDAY WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
EAST ACROSS THE COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA TODAY. SOME BANDS OF SNOW
CONTINUE TO ROTATE WESTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN AND DOWN EAST MAINE
AROUND THE DEPARTING LOW EARLY THIS MORNING. THESE SNOW BANDS WILL
DIMINISH LATER THIS MORNING AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO PULL AWAY.
SOME AREAS COULD SEE AND ADDITIONAL INCH OR SO OF SNOW
ACCUMULATION EARLY THIS MORNING. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME AREAS OF
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW TODAY. OTHERWISE EXPECT MAINLY CLOUDY
SKIES TODAY WITH A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS EXPECTED BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID
TEENS NORTH AND MID TEENS TO LOW 20S DOWN EAST.

SKIES WILL CLEAR TONIGHT AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 5 BELOW TO 15 BELOW
ZERO ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS AND 5 BELOW TO 5 ABOVE
ACROSS DOWN EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
***WINTER STORM WATCHES ISSUED FOR LATE THU NIGHT THROUGH SAT
 MORNING***

HIGH PRES CRESTS ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD THU MORNING AND MOVES
EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC. ATTENTION TURNS TO LOW PRES AND AN UPPER
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. THE LOW MOVES INTO THE GULF
OF MAINE FRI WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH TO EXTEND BACK ACROSS MAINE.
THE 700 MB LOW MOVES INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY FRI.

THU WILL BE A DRY DAY...AND AFTER A COLD START TEMPS WILL
MODERATE BACK INTO THE 20S DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE DAY SHOULD
START WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE AND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE NEXT
WEATHER SYSTEM. THE CLOUDS WILL LOWER AND THICKEN THU NIGHT WITH
LOW TEMPERATURES LIKELY TO BE RECORDED DURING THE EVENING WITH
TEMPS TO SLOWLY RISE OVERNIGHT. SNOW WILL DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT
ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW.
INITIALLY THE SYSTEM WILL BE SOMEWHAT MOISTURE STARVED...BUT AS
THE ENERGY REACHES THE COAST DURING THE DAY FRI ATLANTIC MOISTURE
WILL BE FUNNELED BACK ACROSS THE REGION. THERE IS STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHERE THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL FALL. THE MODELS
DIFFER ON THE POSITION OF BOTH THE SFC AND MID LEVEL LOWS WHICH
WILL HAVE IMPLICATIONS ON THE DISTRIBUTION OF THE HEAVIEST
SNOWFALL. IT IS EVEN POSSIBLE THAT IF THE LOW IS CLOSE ENOUGH TO
THE COAST THAT SOME COASTAL AREAS MAY HAVE ENOUGH WARM AIR MOVE IN
FOR A CHANGEOVER TO RAIN AT SOME POINT DURING THE EVENT. DESPITE
SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IS GREATER THAN 50
PERCENT THAT A LARGE PORTION OF THE CWA WILL REACH WARNING
CRITERIA SNOWFALL...AND THUS WILL ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE SNOW WILL CONTINUE FRI NIGHT AS THE LOW BEGINS TO PULL INTO
THE MARITIMES AND WRAPS MOISTURE BACK ACROSS THE REGION. THE SNOW
WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION SAT. DRY AND
COLD WEATHER FOLLOWS FOR SAT NIGHT AND SUN AS HIGH PRES BRIEFLY
BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE AREA. THE THIRD IN A SERIES OF LOWS LOOKS
TO AFFECT THE REGION MON INTO MON NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
IN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET AND MOVES TOWARD THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST MONDAY. THERE ARE DIFFERENCES ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW...BUT
WITH A VERY COLD AIR MASS IN PLACE A TRACK ACROSS MAINE (12Z ECWMF
AND 00Z GFS) IS NOT FAVORED AS THE BEST BAROCLINC ZONE IS LIKELY
TO LIE FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. AT THIS TIME
WOULD SUSPECT THE BEST CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS WOULD
BE ACROSS THE DOWN EAST REGION AND INTO PARTS OF NORTHEAST MAINE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING
IN LINGERING LIGHT SNOW OTHERWISE A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO VFR CAN
BE EXPECTED TODAY ALONG WITH SOME BLOWING SNOW. VFR WILL THEN
CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: VFR THU THROUGH THU EVENING.  CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
LOWER TO MVFR LATE THU NIGHT OR EARLY FRI MORNING IN -SN.
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE TO IFR AND POSSIBLE VLIFR IN
SNOW DURING THE DAY FRI AND CONTINUING INTO SAT MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM AND SMALL
CRAFT CONDITIONS CAN THEN BE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO
TONIGHT. SOME FREEZING SPRAY CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: THE WIND AND WAVES WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH THU NIGHT.  A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED FRIDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF GALES LATER FRI
NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING AS LOW PRES PULLS AWAY FROM THE WATERS.

&&


.CLIMATE...
A RECORD DAILY SNOWFALL OF 13.3" WAS OBSERVED YESTERDAY
AT BANGOR, MAINE. THIS BROKE THE PREVIOUS RECORD OF 10.8", SET IN
1963.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
     MORNING FOR MEZ002-005-006-011-017-030-032.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
     MORNING FOR MEZ001-003-004-010-015-016-029-031.
MARINE...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ052.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DUDA
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM...CB
AVIATION...DUDA/CB
MARINE...DUDA/CB
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CLIMATE...CB




000
FXUS61 KGYX 281132
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
632 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN INTENSE OCEAN STORM WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN FOLLOW FOR LATE
TODAY INTO THURSDAY. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING A
GENERAL SNOWFALL TO THE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH ANOTHER
STORM HEADING TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

625 AM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO INGEST CURRENT MESONET INTO 1ST
PERIOD GRIDS.

PREV DISC...
AT 07Z...A 990 MILLIBAR OCEAN LOW WAS CENTERED WELL EAST OF
PORTSMOUTH. NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR MOSAIC SHOWED A
WEAKENING BAND OF LIGHT...AND OCCASIONALLY MODERATE SNOW ACROSS
MUCH OF WESTERN MAINE. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH
AND DISSIPATE THIS MORNING AS THE OCEAN STORM CONTINUES TO SLIDE
FURTHER OFFSHORE AND WEAKEN. WITH DECREASING PRECIPITATION AND
WINDS...WILL ALLOW THE REMAINING WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES TO BE
DROPPED WITH THE NEW MORNING PACKAGE. WE`LL SEE GRADUAL CLEARING
FROM WEST TO EAST BY AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE HIGH CURRENTLY
DRAPED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES BUILDS EASTWARD INTO NEW ENGLAND.
HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM TEENS IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE 20S
ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
CLEAR AND COLD TONIGHT UNDER THE BUILDING RIDGE WITH FRESH
SNOWPACK AND DECOUPLING SURFACE WINDS. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM NEAR
TEN BELOW IN THE MOUNTAINS TO AROUND ZERO NEAR THE COAST AND THE
URBAN CENTERS OF SOUTHEASTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE.

AFTER A CHILLY START THURSDAY MORNING...SUNSHINE AND A DEVELOPING
RETURN FLOW BEHIND THE DEPARTING HIGH WILL BOOST AFTERNOON HIGHS
INTO THE 20S...WITH A FEW 30 DEGREE READINGS POSSIBLE OVER
SEACOAST NEW HAMPSHIRE. WE`LL SEE INCREASING CLOUDS OVER WESTERN
SECTIONS LATE IN ADVANCE OF OUR NEXT STORM SYSTEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A LONG WAVE TROUGH IS BECOMING ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND OHIO VALLEY. THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF STRONG SHORT WAVES WILL
DIG INTO THE BASE OF THE LONG WAVE TROF AND BECOME NEGATIVELY
TILTED THURSDAY NIGHT DEVELOPING A SURFACE AND UPPER LOW SOME
ALONG THE NORTHEAST COAST FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE EXITIING
INTO THE MARITIMES BY SATURDAY MORNING. MODELS HAVE COME TOGETHER
AND GENERALLY AGREE ON SCENERIO BUT SOMEWHAT DIFFERENT ON
INTENSITIES. EXPECT LIGHT SNOW TO SPREAD ACROSS NH LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT AND THEN INTO ME BY FRIDAY MORNING. ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
LIGHT. BY LATER IN THE DAY THE STORM DEEPENS OFF THE COAST AND
SOME MORE SIGNIFICANT WRAPAROUND SNOW MAY SPREAD FAR ENOUGH WEST
TO REACH THE MIDCOAST. THE SYSTEM IS PROGRESSIVE SO WILL NOT HAVE
TOO MUCH TIME TO PICK UP A LOT OF MOISTURE. IT DOES APPEAR THAT
SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM AND IT
WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED.

THE SYSTEM EXITS INTO THE MARITIMES BY SATURDAY MORNING WITH
CLEARING AND STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION ON GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.
SUNDAY WILL BE PLEASANT WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION.

ON MONDAY A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM MAY BE IN THE MAKING AS A
SYSTEM MOVING EAST FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ALLOWING THE GULF TO
OPEN AND THEN TRIES TO PHASE WITH ENERGY FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM.
A GOOD DEAL OF QPF WILL BE WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE TRACK WILL BE
CRITICAL AS USUAL. WE WILL BE WATCHING HOW THE MODELS HANDLE THE
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS WITH THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS FOR CLARITY.

OVERALL STAYED CLOSE TO THE SUPERBLEND MODELS FOR THE EXTENDED
GRIDS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM...LINGERING IFR AND MVFR EARLY IN SNOW AND BLOWING
SNOW...BECOMING VFR THROUGHOUT.

LONG TERM...CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND
MOSTLY IFR FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT IN SNOW. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO
VFR OVER THE WEEKEND AS COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION
WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...A FREEZING SPRAY ADV IS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS MORNING.
GALES REMAIN UP FOR THE WATERS THIS MORNING...THEN SMALL CRAFT
EXPECTED FOR THE BALANCE OF TODAY.

LONG TERM...GALE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT ON NORTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ150>154.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$
ES



000
FXUS61 KGYX 281132
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
632 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN INTENSE OCEAN STORM WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN FOLLOW FOR LATE
TODAY INTO THURSDAY. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING A
GENERAL SNOWFALL TO THE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH ANOTHER
STORM HEADING TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

625 AM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO INGEST CURRENT MESONET INTO 1ST
PERIOD GRIDS.

PREV DISC...
AT 07Z...A 990 MILLIBAR OCEAN LOW WAS CENTERED WELL EAST OF
PORTSMOUTH. NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR MOSAIC SHOWED A
WEAKENING BAND OF LIGHT...AND OCCASIONALLY MODERATE SNOW ACROSS
MUCH OF WESTERN MAINE. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH
AND DISSIPATE THIS MORNING AS THE OCEAN STORM CONTINUES TO SLIDE
FURTHER OFFSHORE AND WEAKEN. WITH DECREASING PRECIPITATION AND
WINDS...WILL ALLOW THE REMAINING WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES TO BE
DROPPED WITH THE NEW MORNING PACKAGE. WE`LL SEE GRADUAL CLEARING
FROM WEST TO EAST BY AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE HIGH CURRENTLY
DRAPED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES BUILDS EASTWARD INTO NEW ENGLAND.
HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM TEENS IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE 20S
ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
CLEAR AND COLD TONIGHT UNDER THE BUILDING RIDGE WITH FRESH
SNOWPACK AND DECOUPLING SURFACE WINDS. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM NEAR
TEN BELOW IN THE MOUNTAINS TO AROUND ZERO NEAR THE COAST AND THE
URBAN CENTERS OF SOUTHEASTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE.

AFTER A CHILLY START THURSDAY MORNING...SUNSHINE AND A DEVELOPING
RETURN FLOW BEHIND THE DEPARTING HIGH WILL BOOST AFTERNOON HIGHS
INTO THE 20S...WITH A FEW 30 DEGREE READINGS POSSIBLE OVER
SEACOAST NEW HAMPSHIRE. WE`LL SEE INCREASING CLOUDS OVER WESTERN
SECTIONS LATE IN ADVANCE OF OUR NEXT STORM SYSTEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A LONG WAVE TROUGH IS BECOMING ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND OHIO VALLEY. THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF STRONG SHORT WAVES WILL
DIG INTO THE BASE OF THE LONG WAVE TROF AND BECOME NEGATIVELY
TILTED THURSDAY NIGHT DEVELOPING A SURFACE AND UPPER LOW SOME
ALONG THE NORTHEAST COAST FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE EXITIING
INTO THE MARITIMES BY SATURDAY MORNING. MODELS HAVE COME TOGETHER
AND GENERALLY AGREE ON SCENERIO BUT SOMEWHAT DIFFERENT ON
INTENSITIES. EXPECT LIGHT SNOW TO SPREAD ACROSS NH LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT AND THEN INTO ME BY FRIDAY MORNING. ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
LIGHT. BY LATER IN THE DAY THE STORM DEEPENS OFF THE COAST AND
SOME MORE SIGNIFICANT WRAPAROUND SNOW MAY SPREAD FAR ENOUGH WEST
TO REACH THE MIDCOAST. THE SYSTEM IS PROGRESSIVE SO WILL NOT HAVE
TOO MUCH TIME TO PICK UP A LOT OF MOISTURE. IT DOES APPEAR THAT
SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM AND IT
WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED.

THE SYSTEM EXITS INTO THE MARITIMES BY SATURDAY MORNING WITH
CLEARING AND STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION ON GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.
SUNDAY WILL BE PLEASANT WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION.

ON MONDAY A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM MAY BE IN THE MAKING AS A
SYSTEM MOVING EAST FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ALLOWING THE GULF TO
OPEN AND THEN TRIES TO PHASE WITH ENERGY FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM.
A GOOD DEAL OF QPF WILL BE WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE TRACK WILL BE
CRITICAL AS USUAL. WE WILL BE WATCHING HOW THE MODELS HANDLE THE
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS WITH THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS FOR CLARITY.

OVERALL STAYED CLOSE TO THE SUPERBLEND MODELS FOR THE EXTENDED
GRIDS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM...LINGERING IFR AND MVFR EARLY IN SNOW AND BLOWING
SNOW...BECOMING VFR THROUGHOUT.

LONG TERM...CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND
MOSTLY IFR FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT IN SNOW. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO
VFR OVER THE WEEKEND AS COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION
WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...A FREEZING SPRAY ADV IS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS MORNING.
GALES REMAIN UP FOR THE WATERS THIS MORNING...THEN SMALL CRAFT
EXPECTED FOR THE BALANCE OF TODAY.

LONG TERM...GALE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT ON NORTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ150>154.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$
ES



000
FXUS61 KGYX 281132
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
632 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN INTENSE OCEAN STORM WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN FOLLOW FOR LATE
TODAY INTO THURSDAY. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING A
GENERAL SNOWFALL TO THE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH ANOTHER
STORM HEADING TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

625 AM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO INGEST CURRENT MESONET INTO 1ST
PERIOD GRIDS.

PREV DISC...
AT 07Z...A 990 MILLIBAR OCEAN LOW WAS CENTERED WELL EAST OF
PORTSMOUTH. NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR MOSAIC SHOWED A
WEAKENING BAND OF LIGHT...AND OCCASIONALLY MODERATE SNOW ACROSS
MUCH OF WESTERN MAINE. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH
AND DISSIPATE THIS MORNING AS THE OCEAN STORM CONTINUES TO SLIDE
FURTHER OFFSHORE AND WEAKEN. WITH DECREASING PRECIPITATION AND
WINDS...WILL ALLOW THE REMAINING WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES TO BE
DROPPED WITH THE NEW MORNING PACKAGE. WE`LL SEE GRADUAL CLEARING
FROM WEST TO EAST BY AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE HIGH CURRENTLY
DRAPED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES BUILDS EASTWARD INTO NEW ENGLAND.
HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM TEENS IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE 20S
ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
CLEAR AND COLD TONIGHT UNDER THE BUILDING RIDGE WITH FRESH
SNOWPACK AND DECOUPLING SURFACE WINDS. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM NEAR
TEN BELOW IN THE MOUNTAINS TO AROUND ZERO NEAR THE COAST AND THE
URBAN CENTERS OF SOUTHEASTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE.

AFTER A CHILLY START THURSDAY MORNING...SUNSHINE AND A DEVELOPING
RETURN FLOW BEHIND THE DEPARTING HIGH WILL BOOST AFTERNOON HIGHS
INTO THE 20S...WITH A FEW 30 DEGREE READINGS POSSIBLE OVER
SEACOAST NEW HAMPSHIRE. WE`LL SEE INCREASING CLOUDS OVER WESTERN
SECTIONS LATE IN ADVANCE OF OUR NEXT STORM SYSTEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A LONG WAVE TROUGH IS BECOMING ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND OHIO VALLEY. THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF STRONG SHORT WAVES WILL
DIG INTO THE BASE OF THE LONG WAVE TROF AND BECOME NEGATIVELY
TILTED THURSDAY NIGHT DEVELOPING A SURFACE AND UPPER LOW SOME
ALONG THE NORTHEAST COAST FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE EXITIING
INTO THE MARITIMES BY SATURDAY MORNING. MODELS HAVE COME TOGETHER
AND GENERALLY AGREE ON SCENERIO BUT SOMEWHAT DIFFERENT ON
INTENSITIES. EXPECT LIGHT SNOW TO SPREAD ACROSS NH LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT AND THEN INTO ME BY FRIDAY MORNING. ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
LIGHT. BY LATER IN THE DAY THE STORM DEEPENS OFF THE COAST AND
SOME MORE SIGNIFICANT WRAPAROUND SNOW MAY SPREAD FAR ENOUGH WEST
TO REACH THE MIDCOAST. THE SYSTEM IS PROGRESSIVE SO WILL NOT HAVE
TOO MUCH TIME TO PICK UP A LOT OF MOISTURE. IT DOES APPEAR THAT
SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM AND IT
WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED.

THE SYSTEM EXITS INTO THE MARITIMES BY SATURDAY MORNING WITH
CLEARING AND STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION ON GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.
SUNDAY WILL BE PLEASANT WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION.

ON MONDAY A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM MAY BE IN THE MAKING AS A
SYSTEM MOVING EAST FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ALLOWING THE GULF TO
OPEN AND THEN TRIES TO PHASE WITH ENERGY FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM.
A GOOD DEAL OF QPF WILL BE WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE TRACK WILL BE
CRITICAL AS USUAL. WE WILL BE WATCHING HOW THE MODELS HANDLE THE
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS WITH THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS FOR CLARITY.

OVERALL STAYED CLOSE TO THE SUPERBLEND MODELS FOR THE EXTENDED
GRIDS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM...LINGERING IFR AND MVFR EARLY IN SNOW AND BLOWING
SNOW...BECOMING VFR THROUGHOUT.

LONG TERM...CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND
MOSTLY IFR FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT IN SNOW. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO
VFR OVER THE WEEKEND AS COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION
WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...A FREEZING SPRAY ADV IS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS MORNING.
GALES REMAIN UP FOR THE WATERS THIS MORNING...THEN SMALL CRAFT
EXPECTED FOR THE BALANCE OF TODAY.

LONG TERM...GALE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT ON NORTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ150>154.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$
ES



000
FXUS61 KGYX 281132
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
632 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN INTENSE OCEAN STORM WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN FOLLOW FOR LATE
TODAY INTO THURSDAY. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING A
GENERAL SNOWFALL TO THE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH ANOTHER
STORM HEADING TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

625 AM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO INGEST CURRENT MESONET INTO 1ST
PERIOD GRIDS.

PREV DISC...
AT 07Z...A 990 MILLIBAR OCEAN LOW WAS CENTERED WELL EAST OF
PORTSMOUTH. NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR MOSAIC SHOWED A
WEAKENING BAND OF LIGHT...AND OCCASIONALLY MODERATE SNOW ACROSS
MUCH OF WESTERN MAINE. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH
AND DISSIPATE THIS MORNING AS THE OCEAN STORM CONTINUES TO SLIDE
FURTHER OFFSHORE AND WEAKEN. WITH DECREASING PRECIPITATION AND
WINDS...WILL ALLOW THE REMAINING WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES TO BE
DROPPED WITH THE NEW MORNING PACKAGE. WE`LL SEE GRADUAL CLEARING
FROM WEST TO EAST BY AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE HIGH CURRENTLY
DRAPED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES BUILDS EASTWARD INTO NEW ENGLAND.
HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM TEENS IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE 20S
ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
CLEAR AND COLD TONIGHT UNDER THE BUILDING RIDGE WITH FRESH
SNOWPACK AND DECOUPLING SURFACE WINDS. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM NEAR
TEN BELOW IN THE MOUNTAINS TO AROUND ZERO NEAR THE COAST AND THE
URBAN CENTERS OF SOUTHEASTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE.

AFTER A CHILLY START THURSDAY MORNING...SUNSHINE AND A DEVELOPING
RETURN FLOW BEHIND THE DEPARTING HIGH WILL BOOST AFTERNOON HIGHS
INTO THE 20S...WITH A FEW 30 DEGREE READINGS POSSIBLE OVER
SEACOAST NEW HAMPSHIRE. WE`LL SEE INCREASING CLOUDS OVER WESTERN
SECTIONS LATE IN ADVANCE OF OUR NEXT STORM SYSTEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A LONG WAVE TROUGH IS BECOMING ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND OHIO VALLEY. THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF STRONG SHORT WAVES WILL
DIG INTO THE BASE OF THE LONG WAVE TROF AND BECOME NEGATIVELY
TILTED THURSDAY NIGHT DEVELOPING A SURFACE AND UPPER LOW SOME
ALONG THE NORTHEAST COAST FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE EXITIING
INTO THE MARITIMES BY SATURDAY MORNING. MODELS HAVE COME TOGETHER
AND GENERALLY AGREE ON SCENERIO BUT SOMEWHAT DIFFERENT ON
INTENSITIES. EXPECT LIGHT SNOW TO SPREAD ACROSS NH LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT AND THEN INTO ME BY FRIDAY MORNING. ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
LIGHT. BY LATER IN THE DAY THE STORM DEEPENS OFF THE COAST AND
SOME MORE SIGNIFICANT WRAPAROUND SNOW MAY SPREAD FAR ENOUGH WEST
TO REACH THE MIDCOAST. THE SYSTEM IS PROGRESSIVE SO WILL NOT HAVE
TOO MUCH TIME TO PICK UP A LOT OF MOISTURE. IT DOES APPEAR THAT
SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM AND IT
WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED.

THE SYSTEM EXITS INTO THE MARITIMES BY SATURDAY MORNING WITH
CLEARING AND STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION ON GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.
SUNDAY WILL BE PLEASANT WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION.

ON MONDAY A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM MAY BE IN THE MAKING AS A
SYSTEM MOVING EAST FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ALLOWING THE GULF TO
OPEN AND THEN TRIES TO PHASE WITH ENERGY FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM.
A GOOD DEAL OF QPF WILL BE WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE TRACK WILL BE
CRITICAL AS USUAL. WE WILL BE WATCHING HOW THE MODELS HANDLE THE
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS WITH THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS FOR CLARITY.

OVERALL STAYED CLOSE TO THE SUPERBLEND MODELS FOR THE EXTENDED
GRIDS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM...LINGERING IFR AND MVFR EARLY IN SNOW AND BLOWING
SNOW...BECOMING VFR THROUGHOUT.

LONG TERM...CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND
MOSTLY IFR FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT IN SNOW. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO
VFR OVER THE WEEKEND AS COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION
WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...A FREEZING SPRAY ADV IS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS MORNING.
GALES REMAIN UP FOR THE WATERS THIS MORNING...THEN SMALL CRAFT
EXPECTED FOR THE BALANCE OF TODAY.

LONG TERM...GALE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT ON NORTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ150>154.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$
ES



000
FXUS61 KCAR 280911
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
411 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE MARITIMES TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE WEST TONIGHT...AND WILL MOVE
EAST OF THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT...AND WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF OF MAINE
FRIDAY. THE LOW WILL SLOWLY PULL AWAY INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE INTENSE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT THE BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS TO DOWN EAST MAINE YESTERDAY WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
EAST ACROSS THE COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA TODAY. SOME BANDS OF SNOW
CONTINUE TO ROTATE WESTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN AND DOWN EAST MAINE
AROUND THE DEPARTING LOW EARLY THIS MORNING. THESE SNOW BANDS WILL
DIMINISH LATER THIS MORNING AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO PULL AWAY.
SOME AREAS COULD SEE AND ADDITIONAL INCH OR SO OF SNOW
ACCUMULATION EARLY THIS MORNING. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME AREAS OF
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW TODAY. OTHERWISE EXPECT MAINLY CLOUDY
SKIES TODAY WITH A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS EXPECTED BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID
TEENS NORTH AND MID TEENS TO LOW 20S DOWN EAST.

SKIES WILL CLEAR TONIGHT AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 5 BELOW TO 15 BELOW
ZERO ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS AND 5 BELOW TO 5 ABOVE
ACROSS DOWN EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

***WINTER STORM WATCHES ISSUED FOR LATE THU NIGHT THROUGH SAT
 MORNING***

HIGH PRES CRESTS ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD THU MORNING AND MOVES
EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC. ATTENTION TURNS TO LOW PRES AND AN UPPER
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. THE LOW MOVES INTO THE GULF
OF MAINE FRI WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH TO EXTEND BACK ACROSS MAINE.
THE 700 MB LOW MOVES INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY FRI.

THU WILL BE A DRY DAY...AND AFTER A COLD START TEMPS WILL
MODERATE BACK INTO THE 20S DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE DAY SHOULD
START WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE AND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE NEXT
WEATHER SYSTEM. THE CLOUDS WILL LOWER AND THICKEN THU NIGHT WITH
LOW TEMPERATURES LIKELY TO BE RECORDED DURING THE EVENING WITH
TEMPS TO SLOWLY RISE OVERNIGHT. SNOW WILL DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT
ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW.
INITIALLY THE SYSTEM WILL BE SOMEWHAT MOISTURE STARVED...BUT AS
THE ENERGY REACHES THE COAST DURING THE DAY FRI ATLANTIC MOISTURE
WILL BE FUNNELED BACK ACROSS THE REGION. THERE IS STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHERE THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL FALL. THE MODELS
DIFFER ON THE POSITION OF BOTH THE SFC AND MID LEVEL LOWS WHICH
WILL HAVE IMPLICATIONS ON THE DISTRIBUTION OF THE HEAVIEST
SNOWFALL. IT IS EVEN POSSIBLE THAT IF THE LOW IS CLOSE ENOUGH TO
THE COAST THAT SOME COASTAL AREAS MAY HAVE ENOUGH WARM AIR MOVE IN
FOR A CHANGEOVER TO RAIN AT SOME POINT DURING THE EVENT. DESPITE
SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IS GREATER THAN 50
PERCENT THAT A LARGE PORTION OF THE CWA WILL REACH WARNING
CRITERIA SNOWFALL...AND THUS WILL ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE SNOW WILL CONTINUE FRI NIGHT AS THE LOW BEGINS TO PULL INTO
THE MARITIMES AND WRAPS MOISTURE BACK ACROSS THE REGION. THE SNOW
WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION SAT. DRY AND
COLD WEATHER FOLLOWS FOR SAT NIGHT AND SUN AS HIGH PRES BRIEFLY
BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE AREA. THE THIRD IN A SERIES OF LOWS LOOKS
TO AFFECT THE REGION MON INTO MON NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
IN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET AND MOVES TOWARD THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST MONDAY. THERE ARE DIFFERENCES ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW...BUT
WITH A VERY COLD AIR MASS IN PLACE A TRACK ACROSS MAINE (12Z ECWMF
AND 00Z GFS) IS NOT FAVORED AS THE BEST BAROCLINC ZONE IS LIKELY
TO LIE FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. AT THIS TIME
WOULD SUSPECT THE BEST CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS WOULD
BE ACROSS THE DOWN EAST REGION AND INTO PARTS OF NORTHEAST MAINE.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING
IN LINGERING LIGHT SNOW OTHERWISE A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO VFR CAN
BE EXPECTED TODAY ALONG WITH SOME BLOWING SNOW. VFR WILL THEN
CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: VFR THU THROUGH THU EVENING.  CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
LOWER TO MVFR LATE THU NIGHT OR EARLY FRI MORNING IN -SN.
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE TO IFR AND POSSIBLE VLIFR IN
SNOW DURING THE DAY FRI AND CONTINUING INTO SAT MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM AND SMALL
CRAFT CONDITIONS CAN THEN BE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO
TONIGHT. SOME FREEZING SPRAY CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: THE WIND AND WAVES WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH THU NIGHT.  A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED FRIDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF GALES LATER FRI
NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING AS LOW PRES PULLS AWAY FROM THE WATERS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE. HIGH TIDE
OCCURS AT 5 AM THIS MORNING.

&&

.CLIMATE...A RECORD DAILY SNOWFALL OF 13.3" WAS OBSERVED YESTERDAY
AT BANGOR, MAINE. THIS BROKE THE PREVIOUS RECORD OF 10.8", SET IN
1963.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
     MORNING FOR MEZ002-005-006-011-017-030-032.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
     MORNING FOR MEZ001-003-004-010-015-016-029-031.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MEZ029-
     030.
MARINE...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ052.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DUDA
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM...CB
AVIATION...DUDA/CB
MARINE...DUDA/CB
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...DUDA
CLIMATE...CB



000
FXUS61 KCAR 280911
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
411 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE MARITIMES TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE WEST TONIGHT...AND WILL MOVE
EAST OF THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT...AND WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF OF MAINE
FRIDAY. THE LOW WILL SLOWLY PULL AWAY INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE INTENSE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT THE BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS TO DOWN EAST MAINE YESTERDAY WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
EAST ACROSS THE COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA TODAY. SOME BANDS OF SNOW
CONTINUE TO ROTATE WESTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN AND DOWN EAST MAINE
AROUND THE DEPARTING LOW EARLY THIS MORNING. THESE SNOW BANDS WILL
DIMINISH LATER THIS MORNING AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO PULL AWAY.
SOME AREAS COULD SEE AND ADDITIONAL INCH OR SO OF SNOW
ACCUMULATION EARLY THIS MORNING. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME AREAS OF
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW TODAY. OTHERWISE EXPECT MAINLY CLOUDY
SKIES TODAY WITH A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS EXPECTED BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID
TEENS NORTH AND MID TEENS TO LOW 20S DOWN EAST.

SKIES WILL CLEAR TONIGHT AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 5 BELOW TO 15 BELOW
ZERO ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS AND 5 BELOW TO 5 ABOVE
ACROSS DOWN EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

***WINTER STORM WATCHES ISSUED FOR LATE THU NIGHT THROUGH SAT
 MORNING***

HIGH PRES CRESTS ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD THU MORNING AND MOVES
EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC. ATTENTION TURNS TO LOW PRES AND AN UPPER
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. THE LOW MOVES INTO THE GULF
OF MAINE FRI WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH TO EXTEND BACK ACROSS MAINE.
THE 700 MB LOW MOVES INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY FRI.

THU WILL BE A DRY DAY...AND AFTER A COLD START TEMPS WILL
MODERATE BACK INTO THE 20S DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE DAY SHOULD
START WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE AND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE NEXT
WEATHER SYSTEM. THE CLOUDS WILL LOWER AND THICKEN THU NIGHT WITH
LOW TEMPERATURES LIKELY TO BE RECORDED DURING THE EVENING WITH
TEMPS TO SLOWLY RISE OVERNIGHT. SNOW WILL DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT
ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW.
INITIALLY THE SYSTEM WILL BE SOMEWHAT MOISTURE STARVED...BUT AS
THE ENERGY REACHES THE COAST DURING THE DAY FRI ATLANTIC MOISTURE
WILL BE FUNNELED BACK ACROSS THE REGION. THERE IS STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHERE THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL FALL. THE MODELS
DIFFER ON THE POSITION OF BOTH THE SFC AND MID LEVEL LOWS WHICH
WILL HAVE IMPLICATIONS ON THE DISTRIBUTION OF THE HEAVIEST
SNOWFALL. IT IS EVEN POSSIBLE THAT IF THE LOW IS CLOSE ENOUGH TO
THE COAST THAT SOME COASTAL AREAS MAY HAVE ENOUGH WARM AIR MOVE IN
FOR A CHANGEOVER TO RAIN AT SOME POINT DURING THE EVENT. DESPITE
SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IS GREATER THAN 50
PERCENT THAT A LARGE PORTION OF THE CWA WILL REACH WARNING
CRITERIA SNOWFALL...AND THUS WILL ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE SNOW WILL CONTINUE FRI NIGHT AS THE LOW BEGINS TO PULL INTO
THE MARITIMES AND WRAPS MOISTURE BACK ACROSS THE REGION. THE SNOW
WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION SAT. DRY AND
COLD WEATHER FOLLOWS FOR SAT NIGHT AND SUN AS HIGH PRES BRIEFLY
BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE AREA. THE THIRD IN A SERIES OF LOWS LOOKS
TO AFFECT THE REGION MON INTO MON NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
IN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET AND MOVES TOWARD THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST MONDAY. THERE ARE DIFFERENCES ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW...BUT
WITH A VERY COLD AIR MASS IN PLACE A TRACK ACROSS MAINE (12Z ECWMF
AND 00Z GFS) IS NOT FAVORED AS THE BEST BAROCLINC ZONE IS LIKELY
TO LIE FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. AT THIS TIME
WOULD SUSPECT THE BEST CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS WOULD
BE ACROSS THE DOWN EAST REGION AND INTO PARTS OF NORTHEAST MAINE.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING
IN LINGERING LIGHT SNOW OTHERWISE A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO VFR CAN
BE EXPECTED TODAY ALONG WITH SOME BLOWING SNOW. VFR WILL THEN
CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: VFR THU THROUGH THU EVENING.  CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
LOWER TO MVFR LATE THU NIGHT OR EARLY FRI MORNING IN -SN.
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE TO IFR AND POSSIBLE VLIFR IN
SNOW DURING THE DAY FRI AND CONTINUING INTO SAT MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM AND SMALL
CRAFT CONDITIONS CAN THEN BE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO
TONIGHT. SOME FREEZING SPRAY CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: THE WIND AND WAVES WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH THU NIGHT.  A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED FRIDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF GALES LATER FRI
NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING AS LOW PRES PULLS AWAY FROM THE WATERS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE. HIGH TIDE
OCCURS AT 5 AM THIS MORNING.

&&

.CLIMATE...A RECORD DAILY SNOWFALL OF 13.3" WAS OBSERVED YESTERDAY
AT BANGOR, MAINE. THIS BROKE THE PREVIOUS RECORD OF 10.8", SET IN
1963.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
     MORNING FOR MEZ002-005-006-011-017-030-032.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
     MORNING FOR MEZ001-003-004-010-015-016-029-031.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MEZ029-
     030.
MARINE...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ052.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DUDA
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM...CB
AVIATION...DUDA/CB
MARINE...DUDA/CB
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...DUDA
CLIMATE...CB



000
FXUS61 KCAR 280911
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
411 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE MARITIMES TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE WEST TONIGHT...AND WILL MOVE
EAST OF THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT...AND WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF OF MAINE
FRIDAY. THE LOW WILL SLOWLY PULL AWAY INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE INTENSE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT THE BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS TO DOWN EAST MAINE YESTERDAY WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
EAST ACROSS THE COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA TODAY. SOME BANDS OF SNOW
CONTINUE TO ROTATE WESTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN AND DOWN EAST MAINE
AROUND THE DEPARTING LOW EARLY THIS MORNING. THESE SNOW BANDS WILL
DIMINISH LATER THIS MORNING AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO PULL AWAY.
SOME AREAS COULD SEE AND ADDITIONAL INCH OR SO OF SNOW
ACCUMULATION EARLY THIS MORNING. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME AREAS OF
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW TODAY. OTHERWISE EXPECT MAINLY CLOUDY
SKIES TODAY WITH A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS EXPECTED BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID
TEENS NORTH AND MID TEENS TO LOW 20S DOWN EAST.

SKIES WILL CLEAR TONIGHT AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 5 BELOW TO 15 BELOW
ZERO ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS AND 5 BELOW TO 5 ABOVE
ACROSS DOWN EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

***WINTER STORM WATCHES ISSUED FOR LATE THU NIGHT THROUGH SAT
 MORNING***

HIGH PRES CRESTS ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD THU MORNING AND MOVES
EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC. ATTENTION TURNS TO LOW PRES AND AN UPPER
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. THE LOW MOVES INTO THE GULF
OF MAINE FRI WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH TO EXTEND BACK ACROSS MAINE.
THE 700 MB LOW MOVES INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY FRI.

THU WILL BE A DRY DAY...AND AFTER A COLD START TEMPS WILL
MODERATE BACK INTO THE 20S DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE DAY SHOULD
START WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE AND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE NEXT
WEATHER SYSTEM. THE CLOUDS WILL LOWER AND THICKEN THU NIGHT WITH
LOW TEMPERATURES LIKELY TO BE RECORDED DURING THE EVENING WITH
TEMPS TO SLOWLY RISE OVERNIGHT. SNOW WILL DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT
ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW.
INITIALLY THE SYSTEM WILL BE SOMEWHAT MOISTURE STARVED...BUT AS
THE ENERGY REACHES THE COAST DURING THE DAY FRI ATLANTIC MOISTURE
WILL BE FUNNELED BACK ACROSS THE REGION. THERE IS STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHERE THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL FALL. THE MODELS
DIFFER ON THE POSITION OF BOTH THE SFC AND MID LEVEL LOWS WHICH
WILL HAVE IMPLICATIONS ON THE DISTRIBUTION OF THE HEAVIEST
SNOWFALL. IT IS EVEN POSSIBLE THAT IF THE LOW IS CLOSE ENOUGH TO
THE COAST THAT SOME COASTAL AREAS MAY HAVE ENOUGH WARM AIR MOVE IN
FOR A CHANGEOVER TO RAIN AT SOME POINT DURING THE EVENT. DESPITE
SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IS GREATER THAN 50
PERCENT THAT A LARGE PORTION OF THE CWA WILL REACH WARNING
CRITERIA SNOWFALL...AND THUS WILL ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE SNOW WILL CONTINUE FRI NIGHT AS THE LOW BEGINS TO PULL INTO
THE MARITIMES AND WRAPS MOISTURE BACK ACROSS THE REGION. THE SNOW
WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION SAT. DRY AND
COLD WEATHER FOLLOWS FOR SAT NIGHT AND SUN AS HIGH PRES BRIEFLY
BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE AREA. THE THIRD IN A SERIES OF LOWS LOOKS
TO AFFECT THE REGION MON INTO MON NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
IN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET AND MOVES TOWARD THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST MONDAY. THERE ARE DIFFERENCES ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW...BUT
WITH A VERY COLD AIR MASS IN PLACE A TRACK ACROSS MAINE (12Z ECWMF
AND 00Z GFS) IS NOT FAVORED AS THE BEST BAROCLINC ZONE IS LIKELY
TO LIE FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. AT THIS TIME
WOULD SUSPECT THE BEST CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS WOULD
BE ACROSS THE DOWN EAST REGION AND INTO PARTS OF NORTHEAST MAINE.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING
IN LINGERING LIGHT SNOW OTHERWISE A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO VFR CAN
BE EXPECTED TODAY ALONG WITH SOME BLOWING SNOW. VFR WILL THEN
CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: VFR THU THROUGH THU EVENING.  CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
LOWER TO MVFR LATE THU NIGHT OR EARLY FRI MORNING IN -SN.
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE TO IFR AND POSSIBLE VLIFR IN
SNOW DURING THE DAY FRI AND CONTINUING INTO SAT MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM AND SMALL
CRAFT CONDITIONS CAN THEN BE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO
TONIGHT. SOME FREEZING SPRAY CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: THE WIND AND WAVES WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH THU NIGHT.  A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED FRIDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF GALES LATER FRI
NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING AS LOW PRES PULLS AWAY FROM THE WATERS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE. HIGH TIDE
OCCURS AT 5 AM THIS MORNING.

&&

.CLIMATE...A RECORD DAILY SNOWFALL OF 13.3" WAS OBSERVED YESTERDAY
AT BANGOR, MAINE. THIS BROKE THE PREVIOUS RECORD OF 10.8", SET IN
1963.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
     MORNING FOR MEZ002-005-006-011-017-030-032.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
     MORNING FOR MEZ001-003-004-010-015-016-029-031.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MEZ029-
     030.
MARINE...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ052.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DUDA
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM...CB
AVIATION...DUDA/CB
MARINE...DUDA/CB
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...DUDA
CLIMATE...CB



000
FXUS61 KCAR 280911
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
411 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE MARITIMES TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE WEST TONIGHT...AND WILL MOVE
EAST OF THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT...AND WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF OF MAINE
FRIDAY. THE LOW WILL SLOWLY PULL AWAY INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE INTENSE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT THE BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS TO DOWN EAST MAINE YESTERDAY WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
EAST ACROSS THE COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA TODAY. SOME BANDS OF SNOW
CONTINUE TO ROTATE WESTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN AND DOWN EAST MAINE
AROUND THE DEPARTING LOW EARLY THIS MORNING. THESE SNOW BANDS WILL
DIMINISH LATER THIS MORNING AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO PULL AWAY.
SOME AREAS COULD SEE AND ADDITIONAL INCH OR SO OF SNOW
ACCUMULATION EARLY THIS MORNING. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME AREAS OF
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW TODAY. OTHERWISE EXPECT MAINLY CLOUDY
SKIES TODAY WITH A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS EXPECTED BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID
TEENS NORTH AND MID TEENS TO LOW 20S DOWN EAST.

SKIES WILL CLEAR TONIGHT AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 5 BELOW TO 15 BELOW
ZERO ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS AND 5 BELOW TO 5 ABOVE
ACROSS DOWN EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

***WINTER STORM WATCHES ISSUED FOR LATE THU NIGHT THROUGH SAT
 MORNING***

HIGH PRES CRESTS ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD THU MORNING AND MOVES
EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC. ATTENTION TURNS TO LOW PRES AND AN UPPER
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. THE LOW MOVES INTO THE GULF
OF MAINE FRI WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH TO EXTEND BACK ACROSS MAINE.
THE 700 MB LOW MOVES INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY FRI.

THU WILL BE A DRY DAY...AND AFTER A COLD START TEMPS WILL
MODERATE BACK INTO THE 20S DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE DAY SHOULD
START WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE AND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE NEXT
WEATHER SYSTEM. THE CLOUDS WILL LOWER AND THICKEN THU NIGHT WITH
LOW TEMPERATURES LIKELY TO BE RECORDED DURING THE EVENING WITH
TEMPS TO SLOWLY RISE OVERNIGHT. SNOW WILL DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT
ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW.
INITIALLY THE SYSTEM WILL BE SOMEWHAT MOISTURE STARVED...BUT AS
THE ENERGY REACHES THE COAST DURING THE DAY FRI ATLANTIC MOISTURE
WILL BE FUNNELED BACK ACROSS THE REGION. THERE IS STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHERE THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL FALL. THE MODELS
DIFFER ON THE POSITION OF BOTH THE SFC AND MID LEVEL LOWS WHICH
WILL HAVE IMPLICATIONS ON THE DISTRIBUTION OF THE HEAVIEST
SNOWFALL. IT IS EVEN POSSIBLE THAT IF THE LOW IS CLOSE ENOUGH TO
THE COAST THAT SOME COASTAL AREAS MAY HAVE ENOUGH WARM AIR MOVE IN
FOR A CHANGEOVER TO RAIN AT SOME POINT DURING THE EVENT. DESPITE
SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IS GREATER THAN 50
PERCENT THAT A LARGE PORTION OF THE CWA WILL REACH WARNING
CRITERIA SNOWFALL...AND THUS WILL ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE SNOW WILL CONTINUE FRI NIGHT AS THE LOW BEGINS TO PULL INTO
THE MARITIMES AND WRAPS MOISTURE BACK ACROSS THE REGION. THE SNOW
WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION SAT. DRY AND
COLD WEATHER FOLLOWS FOR SAT NIGHT AND SUN AS HIGH PRES BRIEFLY
BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE AREA. THE THIRD IN A SERIES OF LOWS LOOKS
TO AFFECT THE REGION MON INTO MON NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
IN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET AND MOVES TOWARD THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST MONDAY. THERE ARE DIFFERENCES ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW...BUT
WITH A VERY COLD AIR MASS IN PLACE A TRACK ACROSS MAINE (12Z ECWMF
AND 00Z GFS) IS NOT FAVORED AS THE BEST BAROCLINC ZONE IS LIKELY
TO LIE FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. AT THIS TIME
WOULD SUSPECT THE BEST CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS WOULD
BE ACROSS THE DOWN EAST REGION AND INTO PARTS OF NORTHEAST MAINE.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING
IN LINGERING LIGHT SNOW OTHERWISE A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO VFR CAN
BE EXPECTED TODAY ALONG WITH SOME BLOWING SNOW. VFR WILL THEN
CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: VFR THU THROUGH THU EVENING.  CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
LOWER TO MVFR LATE THU NIGHT OR EARLY FRI MORNING IN -SN.
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE TO IFR AND POSSIBLE VLIFR IN
SNOW DURING THE DAY FRI AND CONTINUING INTO SAT MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM AND SMALL
CRAFT CONDITIONS CAN THEN BE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO
TONIGHT. SOME FREEZING SPRAY CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: THE WIND AND WAVES WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH THU NIGHT.  A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED FRIDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF GALES LATER FRI
NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING AS LOW PRES PULLS AWAY FROM THE WATERS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE. HIGH TIDE
OCCURS AT 5 AM THIS MORNING.

&&

.CLIMATE...A RECORD DAILY SNOWFALL OF 13.3" WAS OBSERVED YESTERDAY
AT BANGOR, MAINE. THIS BROKE THE PREVIOUS RECORD OF 10.8", SET IN
1963.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
     MORNING FOR MEZ002-005-006-011-017-030-032.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
     MORNING FOR MEZ001-003-004-010-015-016-029-031.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MEZ029-
     030.
MARINE...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ052.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DUDA
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM...CB
AVIATION...DUDA/CB
MARINE...DUDA/CB
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...DUDA
CLIMATE...CB



000
FXUS61 KCAR 280911
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
411 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE MARITIMES TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE WEST TONIGHT...AND WILL MOVE
EAST OF THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT...AND WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF OF MAINE
FRIDAY. THE LOW WILL SLOWLY PULL AWAY INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE INTENSE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT THE BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS TO DOWN EAST MAINE YESTERDAY WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
EAST ACROSS THE COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA TODAY. SOME BANDS OF SNOW
CONTINUE TO ROTATE WESTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN AND DOWN EAST MAINE
AROUND THE DEPARTING LOW EARLY THIS MORNING. THESE SNOW BANDS WILL
DIMINISH LATER THIS MORNING AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO PULL AWAY.
SOME AREAS COULD SEE AND ADDITIONAL INCH OR SO OF SNOW
ACCUMULATION EARLY THIS MORNING. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME AREAS OF
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW TODAY. OTHERWISE EXPECT MAINLY CLOUDY
SKIES TODAY WITH A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS EXPECTED BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID
TEENS NORTH AND MID TEENS TO LOW 20S DOWN EAST.

SKIES WILL CLEAR TONIGHT AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 5 BELOW TO 15 BELOW
ZERO ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS AND 5 BELOW TO 5 ABOVE
ACROSS DOWN EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

***WINTER STORM WATCHES ISSUED FOR LATE THU NIGHT THROUGH SAT
 MORNING***

HIGH PRES CRESTS ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD THU MORNING AND MOVES
EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC. ATTENTION TURNS TO LOW PRES AND AN UPPER
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. THE LOW MOVES INTO THE GULF
OF MAINE FRI WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH TO EXTEND BACK ACROSS MAINE.
THE 700 MB LOW MOVES INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY FRI.

THU WILL BE A DRY DAY...AND AFTER A COLD START TEMPS WILL
MODERATE BACK INTO THE 20S DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE DAY SHOULD
START WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE AND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE NEXT
WEATHER SYSTEM. THE CLOUDS WILL LOWER AND THICKEN THU NIGHT WITH
LOW TEMPERATURES LIKELY TO BE RECORDED DURING THE EVENING WITH
TEMPS TO SLOWLY RISE OVERNIGHT. SNOW WILL DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT
ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW.
INITIALLY THE SYSTEM WILL BE SOMEWHAT MOISTURE STARVED...BUT AS
THE ENERGY REACHES THE COAST DURING THE DAY FRI ATLANTIC MOISTURE
WILL BE FUNNELED BACK ACROSS THE REGION. THERE IS STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHERE THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL FALL. THE MODELS
DIFFER ON THE POSITION OF BOTH THE SFC AND MID LEVEL LOWS WHICH
WILL HAVE IMPLICATIONS ON THE DISTRIBUTION OF THE HEAVIEST
SNOWFALL. IT IS EVEN POSSIBLE THAT IF THE LOW IS CLOSE ENOUGH TO
THE COAST THAT SOME COASTAL AREAS MAY HAVE ENOUGH WARM AIR MOVE IN
FOR A CHANGEOVER TO RAIN AT SOME POINT DURING THE EVENT. DESPITE
SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IS GREATER THAN 50
PERCENT THAT A LARGE PORTION OF THE CWA WILL REACH WARNING
CRITERIA SNOWFALL...AND THUS WILL ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE SNOW WILL CONTINUE FRI NIGHT AS THE LOW BEGINS TO PULL INTO
THE MARITIMES AND WRAPS MOISTURE BACK ACROSS THE REGION. THE SNOW
WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION SAT. DRY AND
COLD WEATHER FOLLOWS FOR SAT NIGHT AND SUN AS HIGH PRES BRIEFLY
BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE AREA. THE THIRD IN A SERIES OF LOWS LOOKS
TO AFFECT THE REGION MON INTO MON NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
IN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET AND MOVES TOWARD THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST MONDAY. THERE ARE DIFFERENCES ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW...BUT
WITH A VERY COLD AIR MASS IN PLACE A TRACK ACROSS MAINE (12Z ECWMF
AND 00Z GFS) IS NOT FAVORED AS THE BEST BAROCLINC ZONE IS LIKELY
TO LIE FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. AT THIS TIME
WOULD SUSPECT THE BEST CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS WOULD
BE ACROSS THE DOWN EAST REGION AND INTO PARTS OF NORTHEAST MAINE.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING
IN LINGERING LIGHT SNOW OTHERWISE A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO VFR CAN
BE EXPECTED TODAY ALONG WITH SOME BLOWING SNOW. VFR WILL THEN
CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: VFR THU THROUGH THU EVENING.  CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
LOWER TO MVFR LATE THU NIGHT OR EARLY FRI MORNING IN -SN.
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE TO IFR AND POSSIBLE VLIFR IN
SNOW DURING THE DAY FRI AND CONTINUING INTO SAT MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM AND SMALL
CRAFT CONDITIONS CAN THEN BE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO
TONIGHT. SOME FREEZING SPRAY CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: THE WIND AND WAVES WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH THU NIGHT.  A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED FRIDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF GALES LATER FRI
NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING AS LOW PRES PULLS AWAY FROM THE WATERS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE. HIGH TIDE
OCCURS AT 5 AM THIS MORNING.

&&

.CLIMATE...A RECORD DAILY SNOWFALL OF 13.3" WAS OBSERVED YESTERDAY
AT BANGOR, MAINE. THIS BROKE THE PREVIOUS RECORD OF 10.8", SET IN
1963.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
     MORNING FOR MEZ002-005-006-011-017-030-032.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
     MORNING FOR MEZ001-003-004-010-015-016-029-031.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MEZ029-
     030.
MARINE...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ052.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DUDA
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM...CB
AVIATION...DUDA/CB
MARINE...DUDA/CB
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...DUDA
CLIMATE...CB




000
FXUS61 KCAR 280911
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
411 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE MARITIMES TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE WEST TONIGHT...AND WILL MOVE
EAST OF THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT...AND WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF OF MAINE
FRIDAY. THE LOW WILL SLOWLY PULL AWAY INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE INTENSE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT THE BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS TO DOWN EAST MAINE YESTERDAY WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
EAST ACROSS THE COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA TODAY. SOME BANDS OF SNOW
CONTINUE TO ROTATE WESTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN AND DOWN EAST MAINE
AROUND THE DEPARTING LOW EARLY THIS MORNING. THESE SNOW BANDS WILL
DIMINISH LATER THIS MORNING AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO PULL AWAY.
SOME AREAS COULD SEE AND ADDITIONAL INCH OR SO OF SNOW
ACCUMULATION EARLY THIS MORNING. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME AREAS OF
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW TODAY. OTHERWISE EXPECT MAINLY CLOUDY
SKIES TODAY WITH A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS EXPECTED BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID
TEENS NORTH AND MID TEENS TO LOW 20S DOWN EAST.

SKIES WILL CLEAR TONIGHT AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 5 BELOW TO 15 BELOW
ZERO ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS AND 5 BELOW TO 5 ABOVE
ACROSS DOWN EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

***WINTER STORM WATCHES ISSUED FOR LATE THU NIGHT THROUGH SAT
 MORNING***

HIGH PRES CRESTS ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD THU MORNING AND MOVES
EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC. ATTENTION TURNS TO LOW PRES AND AN UPPER
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. THE LOW MOVES INTO THE GULF
OF MAINE FRI WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH TO EXTEND BACK ACROSS MAINE.
THE 700 MB LOW MOVES INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY FRI.

THU WILL BE A DRY DAY...AND AFTER A COLD START TEMPS WILL
MODERATE BACK INTO THE 20S DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE DAY SHOULD
START WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE AND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE NEXT
WEATHER SYSTEM. THE CLOUDS WILL LOWER AND THICKEN THU NIGHT WITH
LOW TEMPERATURES LIKELY TO BE RECORDED DURING THE EVENING WITH
TEMPS TO SLOWLY RISE OVERNIGHT. SNOW WILL DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT
ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW.
INITIALLY THE SYSTEM WILL BE SOMEWHAT MOISTURE STARVED...BUT AS
THE ENERGY REACHES THE COAST DURING THE DAY FRI ATLANTIC MOISTURE
WILL BE FUNNELED BACK ACROSS THE REGION. THERE IS STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHERE THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL FALL. THE MODELS
DIFFER ON THE POSITION OF BOTH THE SFC AND MID LEVEL LOWS WHICH
WILL HAVE IMPLICATIONS ON THE DISTRIBUTION OF THE HEAVIEST
SNOWFALL. IT IS EVEN POSSIBLE THAT IF THE LOW IS CLOSE ENOUGH TO
THE COAST THAT SOME COASTAL AREAS MAY HAVE ENOUGH WARM AIR MOVE IN
FOR A CHANGEOVER TO RAIN AT SOME POINT DURING THE EVENT. DESPITE
SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IS GREATER THAN 50
PERCENT THAT A LARGE PORTION OF THE CWA WILL REACH WARNING
CRITERIA SNOWFALL...AND THUS WILL ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE SNOW WILL CONTINUE FRI NIGHT AS THE LOW BEGINS TO PULL INTO
THE MARITIMES AND WRAPS MOISTURE BACK ACROSS THE REGION. THE SNOW
WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION SAT. DRY AND
COLD WEATHER FOLLOWS FOR SAT NIGHT AND SUN AS HIGH PRES BRIEFLY
BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE AREA. THE THIRD IN A SERIES OF LOWS LOOKS
TO AFFECT THE REGION MON INTO MON NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
IN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET AND MOVES TOWARD THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST MONDAY. THERE ARE DIFFERENCES ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW...BUT
WITH A VERY COLD AIR MASS IN PLACE A TRACK ACROSS MAINE (12Z ECWMF
AND 00Z GFS) IS NOT FAVORED AS THE BEST BAROCLINC ZONE IS LIKELY
TO LIE FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. AT THIS TIME
WOULD SUSPECT THE BEST CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS WOULD
BE ACROSS THE DOWN EAST REGION AND INTO PARTS OF NORTHEAST MAINE.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING
IN LINGERING LIGHT SNOW OTHERWISE A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO VFR CAN
BE EXPECTED TODAY ALONG WITH SOME BLOWING SNOW. VFR WILL THEN
CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: VFR THU THROUGH THU EVENING.  CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
LOWER TO MVFR LATE THU NIGHT OR EARLY FRI MORNING IN -SN.
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE TO IFR AND POSSIBLE VLIFR IN
SNOW DURING THE DAY FRI AND CONTINUING INTO SAT MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM AND SMALL
CRAFT CONDITIONS CAN THEN BE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO
TONIGHT. SOME FREEZING SPRAY CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: THE WIND AND WAVES WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH THU NIGHT.  A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED FRIDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF GALES LATER FRI
NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING AS LOW PRES PULLS AWAY FROM THE WATERS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE. HIGH TIDE
OCCURS AT 5 AM THIS MORNING.

&&

.CLIMATE...A RECORD DAILY SNOWFALL OF 13.3" WAS OBSERVED YESTERDAY
AT BANGOR, MAINE. THIS BROKE THE PREVIOUS RECORD OF 10.8", SET IN
1963.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
     MORNING FOR MEZ002-005-006-011-017-030-032.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
     MORNING FOR MEZ001-003-004-010-015-016-029-031.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MEZ029-
     030.
MARINE...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ052.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DUDA
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM...CB
AVIATION...DUDA/CB
MARINE...DUDA/CB
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...DUDA
CLIMATE...CB




000
FXUS61 KCAR 280911
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
411 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE MARITIMES TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE WEST TONIGHT...AND WILL MOVE
EAST OF THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT...AND WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF OF MAINE
FRIDAY. THE LOW WILL SLOWLY PULL AWAY INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE INTENSE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT THE BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS TO DOWN EAST MAINE YESTERDAY WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
EAST ACROSS THE COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA TODAY. SOME BANDS OF SNOW
CONTINUE TO ROTATE WESTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN AND DOWN EAST MAINE
AROUND THE DEPARTING LOW EARLY THIS MORNING. THESE SNOW BANDS WILL
DIMINISH LATER THIS MORNING AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO PULL AWAY.
SOME AREAS COULD SEE AND ADDITIONAL INCH OR SO OF SNOW
ACCUMULATION EARLY THIS MORNING. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME AREAS OF
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW TODAY. OTHERWISE EXPECT MAINLY CLOUDY
SKIES TODAY WITH A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS EXPECTED BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID
TEENS NORTH AND MID TEENS TO LOW 20S DOWN EAST.

SKIES WILL CLEAR TONIGHT AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 5 BELOW TO 15 BELOW
ZERO ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS AND 5 BELOW TO 5 ABOVE
ACROSS DOWN EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

***WINTER STORM WATCHES ISSUED FOR LATE THU NIGHT THROUGH SAT
 MORNING***

HIGH PRES CRESTS ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD THU MORNING AND MOVES
EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC. ATTENTION TURNS TO LOW PRES AND AN UPPER
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. THE LOW MOVES INTO THE GULF
OF MAINE FRI WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH TO EXTEND BACK ACROSS MAINE.
THE 700 MB LOW MOVES INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY FRI.

THU WILL BE A DRY DAY...AND AFTER A COLD START TEMPS WILL
MODERATE BACK INTO THE 20S DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE DAY SHOULD
START WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE AND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE NEXT
WEATHER SYSTEM. THE CLOUDS WILL LOWER AND THICKEN THU NIGHT WITH
LOW TEMPERATURES LIKELY TO BE RECORDED DURING THE EVENING WITH
TEMPS TO SLOWLY RISE OVERNIGHT. SNOW WILL DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT
ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW.
INITIALLY THE SYSTEM WILL BE SOMEWHAT MOISTURE STARVED...BUT AS
THE ENERGY REACHES THE COAST DURING THE DAY FRI ATLANTIC MOISTURE
WILL BE FUNNELED BACK ACROSS THE REGION. THERE IS STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHERE THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL FALL. THE MODELS
DIFFER ON THE POSITION OF BOTH THE SFC AND MID LEVEL LOWS WHICH
WILL HAVE IMPLICATIONS ON THE DISTRIBUTION OF THE HEAVIEST
SNOWFALL. IT IS EVEN POSSIBLE THAT IF THE LOW IS CLOSE ENOUGH TO
THE COAST THAT SOME COASTAL AREAS MAY HAVE ENOUGH WARM AIR MOVE IN
FOR A CHANGEOVER TO RAIN AT SOME POINT DURING THE EVENT. DESPITE
SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IS GREATER THAN 50
PERCENT THAT A LARGE PORTION OF THE CWA WILL REACH WARNING
CRITERIA SNOWFALL...AND THUS WILL ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE SNOW WILL CONTINUE FRI NIGHT AS THE LOW BEGINS TO PULL INTO
THE MARITIMES AND WRAPS MOISTURE BACK ACROSS THE REGION. THE SNOW
WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION SAT. DRY AND
COLD WEATHER FOLLOWS FOR SAT NIGHT AND SUN AS HIGH PRES BRIEFLY
BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE AREA. THE THIRD IN A SERIES OF LOWS LOOKS
TO AFFECT THE REGION MON INTO MON NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
IN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET AND MOVES TOWARD THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST MONDAY. THERE ARE DIFFERENCES ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW...BUT
WITH A VERY COLD AIR MASS IN PLACE A TRACK ACROSS MAINE (12Z ECWMF
AND 00Z GFS) IS NOT FAVORED AS THE BEST BAROCLINC ZONE IS LIKELY
TO LIE FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. AT THIS TIME
WOULD SUSPECT THE BEST CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS WOULD
BE ACROSS THE DOWN EAST REGION AND INTO PARTS OF NORTHEAST MAINE.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING
IN LINGERING LIGHT SNOW OTHERWISE A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO VFR CAN
BE EXPECTED TODAY ALONG WITH SOME BLOWING SNOW. VFR WILL THEN
CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: VFR THU THROUGH THU EVENING.  CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
LOWER TO MVFR LATE THU NIGHT OR EARLY FRI MORNING IN -SN.
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE TO IFR AND POSSIBLE VLIFR IN
SNOW DURING THE DAY FRI AND CONTINUING INTO SAT MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM AND SMALL
CRAFT CONDITIONS CAN THEN BE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO
TONIGHT. SOME FREEZING SPRAY CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: THE WIND AND WAVES WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH THU NIGHT.  A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED FRIDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF GALES LATER FRI
NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING AS LOW PRES PULLS AWAY FROM THE WATERS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE. HIGH TIDE
OCCURS AT 5 AM THIS MORNING.

&&

.CLIMATE...A RECORD DAILY SNOWFALL OF 13.3" WAS OBSERVED YESTERDAY
AT BANGOR, MAINE. THIS BROKE THE PREVIOUS RECORD OF 10.8", SET IN
1963.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
     MORNING FOR MEZ002-005-006-011-017-030-032.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
     MORNING FOR MEZ001-003-004-010-015-016-029-031.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MEZ029-
     030.
MARINE...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ052.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DUDA
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM...CB
AVIATION...DUDA/CB
MARINE...DUDA/CB
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...DUDA
CLIMATE...CB




000
FXUS61 KCAR 280911
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
411 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE MARITIMES TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE WEST TONIGHT...AND WILL MOVE
EAST OF THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT...AND WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF OF MAINE
FRIDAY. THE LOW WILL SLOWLY PULL AWAY INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE INTENSE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT THE BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS TO DOWN EAST MAINE YESTERDAY WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
EAST ACROSS THE COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA TODAY. SOME BANDS OF SNOW
CONTINUE TO ROTATE WESTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN AND DOWN EAST MAINE
AROUND THE DEPARTING LOW EARLY THIS MORNING. THESE SNOW BANDS WILL
DIMINISH LATER THIS MORNING AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO PULL AWAY.
SOME AREAS COULD SEE AND ADDITIONAL INCH OR SO OF SNOW
ACCUMULATION EARLY THIS MORNING. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME AREAS OF
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW TODAY. OTHERWISE EXPECT MAINLY CLOUDY
SKIES TODAY WITH A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS EXPECTED BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID
TEENS NORTH AND MID TEENS TO LOW 20S DOWN EAST.

SKIES WILL CLEAR TONIGHT AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 5 BELOW TO 15 BELOW
ZERO ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS AND 5 BELOW TO 5 ABOVE
ACROSS DOWN EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

***WINTER STORM WATCHES ISSUED FOR LATE THU NIGHT THROUGH SAT
 MORNING***

HIGH PRES CRESTS ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD THU MORNING AND MOVES
EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC. ATTENTION TURNS TO LOW PRES AND AN UPPER
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. THE LOW MOVES INTO THE GULF
OF MAINE FRI WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH TO EXTEND BACK ACROSS MAINE.
THE 700 MB LOW MOVES INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY FRI.

THU WILL BE A DRY DAY...AND AFTER A COLD START TEMPS WILL
MODERATE BACK INTO THE 20S DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE DAY SHOULD
START WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE AND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE NEXT
WEATHER SYSTEM. THE CLOUDS WILL LOWER AND THICKEN THU NIGHT WITH
LOW TEMPERATURES LIKELY TO BE RECORDED DURING THE EVENING WITH
TEMPS TO SLOWLY RISE OVERNIGHT. SNOW WILL DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT
ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW.
INITIALLY THE SYSTEM WILL BE SOMEWHAT MOISTURE STARVED...BUT AS
THE ENERGY REACHES THE COAST DURING THE DAY FRI ATLANTIC MOISTURE
WILL BE FUNNELED BACK ACROSS THE REGION. THERE IS STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHERE THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL FALL. THE MODELS
DIFFER ON THE POSITION OF BOTH THE SFC AND MID LEVEL LOWS WHICH
WILL HAVE IMPLICATIONS ON THE DISTRIBUTION OF THE HEAVIEST
SNOWFALL. IT IS EVEN POSSIBLE THAT IF THE LOW IS CLOSE ENOUGH TO
THE COAST THAT SOME COASTAL AREAS MAY HAVE ENOUGH WARM AIR MOVE IN
FOR A CHANGEOVER TO RAIN AT SOME POINT DURING THE EVENT. DESPITE
SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IS GREATER THAN 50
PERCENT THAT A LARGE PORTION OF THE CWA WILL REACH WARNING
CRITERIA SNOWFALL...AND THUS WILL ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE SNOW WILL CONTINUE FRI NIGHT AS THE LOW BEGINS TO PULL INTO
THE MARITIMES AND WRAPS MOISTURE BACK ACROSS THE REGION. THE SNOW
WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION SAT. DRY AND
COLD WEATHER FOLLOWS FOR SAT NIGHT AND SUN AS HIGH PRES BRIEFLY
BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE AREA. THE THIRD IN A SERIES OF LOWS LOOKS
TO AFFECT THE REGION MON INTO MON NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
IN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET AND MOVES TOWARD THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST MONDAY. THERE ARE DIFFERENCES ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW...BUT
WITH A VERY COLD AIR MASS IN PLACE A TRACK ACROSS MAINE (12Z ECWMF
AND 00Z GFS) IS NOT FAVORED AS THE BEST BAROCLINC ZONE IS LIKELY
TO LIE FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. AT THIS TIME
WOULD SUSPECT THE BEST CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS WOULD
BE ACROSS THE DOWN EAST REGION AND INTO PARTS OF NORTHEAST MAINE.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING
IN LINGERING LIGHT SNOW OTHERWISE A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO VFR CAN
BE EXPECTED TODAY ALONG WITH SOME BLOWING SNOW. VFR WILL THEN
CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: VFR THU THROUGH THU EVENING.  CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
LOWER TO MVFR LATE THU NIGHT OR EARLY FRI MORNING IN -SN.
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE TO IFR AND POSSIBLE VLIFR IN
SNOW DURING THE DAY FRI AND CONTINUING INTO SAT MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM AND SMALL
CRAFT CONDITIONS CAN THEN BE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO
TONIGHT. SOME FREEZING SPRAY CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: THE WIND AND WAVES WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH THU NIGHT.  A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED FRIDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF GALES LATER FRI
NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING AS LOW PRES PULLS AWAY FROM THE WATERS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE. HIGH TIDE
OCCURS AT 5 AM THIS MORNING.

&&

.CLIMATE...A RECORD DAILY SNOWFALL OF 13.3" WAS OBSERVED YESTERDAY
AT BANGOR, MAINE. THIS BROKE THE PREVIOUS RECORD OF 10.8", SET IN
1963.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
     MORNING FOR MEZ002-005-006-011-017-030-032.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
     MORNING FOR MEZ001-003-004-010-015-016-029-031.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MEZ029-
     030.
MARINE...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ052.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DUDA
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM...CB
AVIATION...DUDA/CB
MARINE...DUDA/CB
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...DUDA
CLIMATE...CB




000
FXUS61 KGYX 280834
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
334 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN INTENSE OCEAN STORM WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN FOLLOW FOR LATE
TODAY INTO THURSDAY. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING A
GENERAL SNOWFALL TO THE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH ANOTHER
STORM HEADING TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AT 07Z...A 990 MILLIBAR OCEAN LOW WAS CENTERED WELL EAST OF
PORTSMOUTH. NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR MOSAIC SHOWED A
WEAKENING BAND OF LIGHT...AND OCCASIONALLY MODERATE SNOW ACROSS
MUCH OF WESTERN MAINE. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH
AND DISSIPATE THIS MORNING AS THE OCEAN STORM CONTINUES TO SLIDE
FURTHER OFFSHORE AND WEAKEN. WITH DECREASING PRECIPITATION AND
WINDS...WILL ALLOW THE REMAINING WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES TO BE
DROPPED WITH THE NEW MORNING PACKAGE. WE`LL SEE GRADUAL CLEARING
FROM WEST TO EAST BY AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE HIGH CURRENTLY
DRAPED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES BUILDS EASTWARD INTO NEW ENGLAND.
HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM TEENS IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE 20S
ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
CLEAR AND COLD TONIGHT UNDER THE BUILDING RIDGE WITH FRESH
SNOWPACK AND DECOUPLING SURFACE WINDS. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM NEAR
TEN BELOW IN THE MOUNTAINS TO AROUND ZERO NEAR THE COAST AND THE
URBAN CENTERS OF SOUTHEASTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE.

AFTER A CHILLY START THURSDAY MORNING...SUNSHINE AND A DEVELOPING
RETURN FLOW BEHIND THE DEPARTING HIGH WILL BOOST AFTERNOON HIGHS
INTO THE 20S...WITH A FEW 30 DEGREE READINGS POSSIBLE OVER
SEACOAST NEW HAMPSHIRE. WE`LL SEE INCREASING CLOUDS OVER WESTERN
SECTIONS LATE IN ADVANCE OF OUR NEXT STORM SYSTEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A LONG WAVE TROUGH IS BECOMING ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND OHIO VALLEY. THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF STRONG SHORT WAVES WILL
DIG INTO THE BASE OF THE LONG WAVE TROF AND BECOME NEGATIVELY
TILTED THURSDAY NIGHT DEVELOPING A SURFACE AND UPPER LOW SOME
ALONG THE NORTHEAST COAST FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE EXITIING
INTO THE MARITIMES BY SATURDAY MORNING. MODELS HAVE COME TOGETHER
AND GENERALLY AGREE ON SCENERIO BUT SOMEWHAT DIFFERENT ON
INTENSITIES. EXPECT LIGHT SNOW TO SPREAD ACROSS NH LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT AND THEN INTO ME BY FRIDAY MORNING. ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
LIGHT. BY LATER IN THE DAY THE STORM DEEPENS OFF THE COAST AND
SOME MORE SIGNIFICANT WRAPAROUND SNOW MAY SPREAD FAR ENOUGH WEST
TO REACH THE MIDCOAST. THE SYSTEM IS PROGRESSIVE SO WILL NOT HAVE
TOO MUCH TIME TO PICK UP A LOT OF MOISTURE. IT DOES APPEAR THAT
SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM AND IT
WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED.

THE SYSTEM EXITS INTO THE MARITIMES BY SATURDAY MORNING WITH
CLEARING AND STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION ON GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.
SUNDAY WILL BE PLEASANT WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION.

ON MONDAY A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM MAY BE IN THE MAKING AS A
SYSTEM MOVING EAST FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ALLOWING THE GULF TO
OPEN AND THEN TRIES TO PHASE WITH ENERGY FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM.
A GOOD DEAL OF QPF WILL BE WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE TRACK WILL BE
CRITICAL AS USUAL. WE WILL BE WATCHING HOW THE MODELS HANDLE THE
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS WITH THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS FOR CLARITY.

OVERALL STAYED CLOSE TO THE SUPERBLEND MODELS FOR THE EXTENDED
GRIDS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM...LINGERING IFR AND MVFR EARLY IN SNOW AND BLOWING
SNOW...BECOMING VFR THROUGHOUT.

LONG TERM...CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND
MOSTLY IFR FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT IN SNOW. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO
VFR OVER THE WEEKEND AS COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION
WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.
&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...A FREEZING SPRAY ADV IS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS MORNING.
GALES REMAIN UP FOR THE WATERS THIS MORNING...THEN SMALL CRAFT
EXPECTED FOR THE BALANCE OF TODAY.

LONG TERM...GALE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT ON NORTHWEST WINDS.


&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ150>154.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$
SCHWIBS/MARINE




000
FXUS61 KGYX 280535
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1235 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN INTENSE NOREASTER WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST THROUGH THE GULF OF
MAINE OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN FOLLOW FOR WEDNESDAY AND
EARLY THURSDAY. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING A GENERAL
SNOWFALL TO THE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH ANOTHER STORM
HEADING TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

1235 AM...SNOW HAS STARTED TO WIND DOWN ACROSS THE CONNECTICUT
VALLEY AND WINDS ARE DROPPING OFF SO THE ADVISORY FOR THAT AREA
WILL BE DROPPED AS OF NOW. WILL CONTINUE WITH OTHER WINTER
HEADLINES THROUGH SCHEDULED EXPIRATION TIMES.

PREV DISC...
SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY SHOW INTENSE DEFORMATION BANDS
CONTINUING TO ROTATE ONSHORE FROM THE GULF OF MAINE. STRONG N
WINDS ARE MOVING INTO THE CENTER OF THE STORM... WHICH IS LOCATED
OFFSHORE AND EAST OF CAPE COD... HELPING TO KEEP BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS GOING OVER COASTAL AREAS. IN ADDITION HEAVY SNOW IS
HELPING DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER OF VERY STRONG WINDS ALOFT.
THIS STORM IS VERY IMPRESSIVE AND HAS EYEWALL- LIKE FEATURES...
IN ADDITION THERE IS SUBSIDENCE TO THE WEST WITH DEW POINTS NEAR
ZERO DEGREES F.

HAVE DROPPED OUR WESTERN COUNTIES ALONG THE CT RIVER VALLEY DOWN
TO ADVISORY LEVELS FOR BLOWING SNOW AND SOME LIGHT ADDITIONAL
SNOWFALL. HOWEVER THEY HAVE GOTTEN ONLY 2-4" OR LESS IN SOME
CASES... WHEREAS SOME COASTAL LOCATIONS ARE LIKELY IN THE UPPER
20S FOR STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS. WINTER STORM WARNINGS AND BLIZZARD
WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION...
INCLUDING NORTHERN COUNTIES... WHERE THE SOUTHERN HALF HAS BEEN
GETTING MUCH MORE SNOW THAN NORTHERN SECTIONS.

OMEGA AND FRONTOGENESIS PARAMETERS REMAIN IMPRESSIVE BUT HAVE
ALREADY BEGUN TO WEAKEN AS THE SURFACE LOW BEGINS TO FILL.
EVENTUALLY THE BAND(S) WILL SHRIVEL UP TO JUST THE CORE OVER
SOUTHERN CARROLL COUNTY NH TO SOUTHERN FRANKLIN COUNTY ME AND
DISSIPATE FROM THERE TONIGHT. BLIZZARD AND HEAVY SNOW WARNINGS
WILL LIKELY BE DROPPED SOMETIME OVERNIGHT.

COLD AIR HAS NOT LEFT WESTERN AND NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY. WITH VERY LOW DEW POINTS IN PLACE ALREADY...
LOWS WILL BE NEAR ZERO F THERE AND CLOSER TO 10 TO 15 F AS YOU
GO WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
COLD AND DRY AIR WILL BE DRAWN IN FROM CANADA AS THE SYSTEM
DEPARTS TO OUR EAST TOMORROW. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH THE TEENS
NORTH TO LOWER 20S SOUTH. COLD HP AIRMASS SETTLES IN EVEN FURTHER
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. TEMPERATURES TUMBLE
INTO THE NEGATIVE DIGITS NORTH TO LOWER POSITIVE DIGITS SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION EARLY THURSDAY BEFORE
PULLING OUT TO OUR EAST ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW AN ELONGATED
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE TO ENTER THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT.
THERE HAS NOT BEEN MUCH RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY WITH THIS SYSTEM AS
EARLIER RUNS CUT THE LOW OFF FURTHER TO OUR SOUTH...BRINGING HEAVY
SNOW TO THE REGION. NEW EURO AND THE CANADIAN MODEL CONTINUE TO BE
THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS SYSTEM...CUTTING IT OFF TO OUR
SOUTH. GFS IS THE MOST PROGRESSIVE WITH THIS SYSTEM.

NEXT SYSTEM COMES OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO ON MONDAY. NOT QUITE
READY TO JUMP ON THE WARM SOLUTION WITH THIS STORM AS PLENTY OF
COLD AIR AND SNOWPACK WILL BE INITIALLY IN PLACE OVER NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.

VERY COLD AIR TO FOLLOW...ALONG WITH STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
DURING THE MIDWEEK PERIOD NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM...HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR ALL TERMINALS PRODUCING LIFR AND IFR
CONDITIONS. NORTH WINDS GUSTING TO 30 KTS OR BETTER ALONG THE
COAST WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT WITH GUSTS DROPPING OFF TOWARDS
12Z AND BACKING TO THE NW. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD MOVE IN W TO E BY
12Z.

LONG TERM...
FRI...MVFR IN SNOW WITH LCL IFR CONDS PSSBL.
      NW SFC WIND GUSTING TO 25 KT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...A FREEZING SPRAY ADV IS IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING. GALES REMAIN UP FOR THE BAYS WITH STORM FORCE WINDS OVER
THE OUTER WATERS.

LONG TERM...
THU NIGHT - SAT...GALE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
LARGE...BATTERING WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO STRIKE THE COASTLINE
THROUGH THE UPCOMING 5 PM HIGH TIDE. LONG PERIOD SWELLS ARE NOW UP
TO 30 FEET AT JEFFREYS LEDGE. EXPECT LOCALLY SIGNIFICANT SPLASH-
OVER AND EROSION NEAR THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
WARNINGS REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THIS POTENTIAL HIGH IMPACT EVENT.

STORM SURGE VALUES WILL REMAIN JUST BELOW THREE FEET THIS
AFTERNOON...AND IN COMBINATION WITH A 9.1 FOOT ASTRONOMICAL TIDE
IN PORTLAND...MINOR FLOODING WILL LIKELY OCCUR AS THE STORM TIDE
REACHES 12 FEET. WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON
JUST PRIOR TO HIGH TIDE...WHICH MAY REDUCE THE STORM SURGE.

USED THE NORTH ATLANTIC REGIONAL TEAM WAVE RUNUP MATRICES TO
FORECAST AND WARN FOR THE TWO HIGH TIDES TODAY. THE OUTPUT SHOWS
WAVE ACTION WILL ALLOW FOR LOCALLY SIGNIFICANT EROSION AS WELL AS
OVERWASH AT JENNIS...CAMP ELLIS BEACH...FERRY BEACH...FORTUNES
ROCKS BEACH...WITH EROSION OCCURRING AT POPHAM BEACH. WILL
INCLUDE THIS INFORMATION IN THE WARNINGS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     MEZ007>009-012>014-018>028.
NH...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     NHZ004-006-008>010-012>015.
MARINE...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ150>154.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$
ES



000
FXUS61 KGYX 280535
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1235 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN INTENSE NOREASTER WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST THROUGH THE GULF OF
MAINE OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN FOLLOW FOR WEDNESDAY AND
EARLY THURSDAY. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING A GENERAL
SNOWFALL TO THE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH ANOTHER STORM
HEADING TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

1235 AM...SNOW HAS STARTED TO WIND DOWN ACROSS THE CONNECTICUT
VALLEY AND WINDS ARE DROPPING OFF SO THE ADVISORY FOR THAT AREA
WILL BE DROPPED AS OF NOW. WILL CONTINUE WITH OTHER WINTER
HEADLINES THROUGH SCHEDULED EXPIRATION TIMES.

PREV DISC...
SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY SHOW INTENSE DEFORMATION BANDS
CONTINUING TO ROTATE ONSHORE FROM THE GULF OF MAINE. STRONG N
WINDS ARE MOVING INTO THE CENTER OF THE STORM... WHICH IS LOCATED
OFFSHORE AND EAST OF CAPE COD... HELPING TO KEEP BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS GOING OVER COASTAL AREAS. IN ADDITION HEAVY SNOW IS
HELPING DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER OF VERY STRONG WINDS ALOFT.
THIS STORM IS VERY IMPRESSIVE AND HAS EYEWALL- LIKE FEATURES...
IN ADDITION THERE IS SUBSIDENCE TO THE WEST WITH DEW POINTS NEAR
ZERO DEGREES F.

HAVE DROPPED OUR WESTERN COUNTIES ALONG THE CT RIVER VALLEY DOWN
TO ADVISORY LEVELS FOR BLOWING SNOW AND SOME LIGHT ADDITIONAL
SNOWFALL. HOWEVER THEY HAVE GOTTEN ONLY 2-4" OR LESS IN SOME
CASES... WHEREAS SOME COASTAL LOCATIONS ARE LIKELY IN THE UPPER
20S FOR STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS. WINTER STORM WARNINGS AND BLIZZARD
WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION...
INCLUDING NORTHERN COUNTIES... WHERE THE SOUTHERN HALF HAS BEEN
GETTING MUCH MORE SNOW THAN NORTHERN SECTIONS.

OMEGA AND FRONTOGENESIS PARAMETERS REMAIN IMPRESSIVE BUT HAVE
ALREADY BEGUN TO WEAKEN AS THE SURFACE LOW BEGINS TO FILL.
EVENTUALLY THE BAND(S) WILL SHRIVEL UP TO JUST THE CORE OVER
SOUTHERN CARROLL COUNTY NH TO SOUTHERN FRANKLIN COUNTY ME AND
DISSIPATE FROM THERE TONIGHT. BLIZZARD AND HEAVY SNOW WARNINGS
WILL LIKELY BE DROPPED SOMETIME OVERNIGHT.

COLD AIR HAS NOT LEFT WESTERN AND NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY. WITH VERY LOW DEW POINTS IN PLACE ALREADY...
LOWS WILL BE NEAR ZERO F THERE AND CLOSER TO 10 TO 15 F AS YOU
GO WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
COLD AND DRY AIR WILL BE DRAWN IN FROM CANADA AS THE SYSTEM
DEPARTS TO OUR EAST TOMORROW. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH THE TEENS
NORTH TO LOWER 20S SOUTH. COLD HP AIRMASS SETTLES IN EVEN FURTHER
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. TEMPERATURES TUMBLE
INTO THE NEGATIVE DIGITS NORTH TO LOWER POSITIVE DIGITS SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION EARLY THURSDAY BEFORE
PULLING OUT TO OUR EAST ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW AN ELONGATED
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE TO ENTER THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT.
THERE HAS NOT BEEN MUCH RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY WITH THIS SYSTEM AS
EARLIER RUNS CUT THE LOW OFF FURTHER TO OUR SOUTH...BRINGING HEAVY
SNOW TO THE REGION. NEW EURO AND THE CANADIAN MODEL CONTINUE TO BE
THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS SYSTEM...CUTTING IT OFF TO OUR
SOUTH. GFS IS THE MOST PROGRESSIVE WITH THIS SYSTEM.

NEXT SYSTEM COMES OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO ON MONDAY. NOT QUITE
READY TO JUMP ON THE WARM SOLUTION WITH THIS STORM AS PLENTY OF
COLD AIR AND SNOWPACK WILL BE INITIALLY IN PLACE OVER NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.

VERY COLD AIR TO FOLLOW...ALONG WITH STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
DURING THE MIDWEEK PERIOD NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM...HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR ALL TERMINALS PRODUCING LIFR AND IFR
CONDITIONS. NORTH WINDS GUSTING TO 30 KTS OR BETTER ALONG THE
COAST WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT WITH GUSTS DROPPING OFF TOWARDS
12Z AND BACKING TO THE NW. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD MOVE IN W TO E BY
12Z.

LONG TERM...
FRI...MVFR IN SNOW WITH LCL IFR CONDS PSSBL.
      NW SFC WIND GUSTING TO 25 KT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...A FREEZING SPRAY ADV IS IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING. GALES REMAIN UP FOR THE BAYS WITH STORM FORCE WINDS OVER
THE OUTER WATERS.

LONG TERM...
THU NIGHT - SAT...GALE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
LARGE...BATTERING WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO STRIKE THE COASTLINE
THROUGH THE UPCOMING 5 PM HIGH TIDE. LONG PERIOD SWELLS ARE NOW UP
TO 30 FEET AT JEFFREYS LEDGE. EXPECT LOCALLY SIGNIFICANT SPLASH-
OVER AND EROSION NEAR THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
WARNINGS REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THIS POTENTIAL HIGH IMPACT EVENT.

STORM SURGE VALUES WILL REMAIN JUST BELOW THREE FEET THIS
AFTERNOON...AND IN COMBINATION WITH A 9.1 FOOT ASTRONOMICAL TIDE
IN PORTLAND...MINOR FLOODING WILL LIKELY OCCUR AS THE STORM TIDE
REACHES 12 FEET. WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON
JUST PRIOR TO HIGH TIDE...WHICH MAY REDUCE THE STORM SURGE.

USED THE NORTH ATLANTIC REGIONAL TEAM WAVE RUNUP MATRICES TO
FORECAST AND WARN FOR THE TWO HIGH TIDES TODAY. THE OUTPUT SHOWS
WAVE ACTION WILL ALLOW FOR LOCALLY SIGNIFICANT EROSION AS WELL AS
OVERWASH AT JENNIS...CAMP ELLIS BEACH...FERRY BEACH...FORTUNES
ROCKS BEACH...WITH EROSION OCCURRING AT POPHAM BEACH. WILL
INCLUDE THIS INFORMATION IN THE WARNINGS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     MEZ007>009-012>014-018>028.
NH...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     NHZ004-006-008>010-012>015.
MARINE...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ150>154.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$
ES




000
FXUS61 KCAR 280525
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1225 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN WHILE TRACKING NORTHEAST
JUST SOUTH OF WESTERN NOVA SCOTIA LATE TONIGHT AND ACROSS EASTERN
NOVA SCOTIA ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
WEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. ANOTHER LOW WILL APPROACH
FROM THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT AND CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
UPDATE: NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO OVERNIGHT FORECAST.

ORGNL DISC: THE LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH HAS BEEN BRINGING
BANDS OF HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND
OCCLUDE AS IT SLOWLY MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE
TONIGHT. SNOW OF VARYING INTENSITY WILL CONTINUE TO OCCUR ACROSS
THE AREA TONIGHT ALTHOUGH IN GENERAL THE INTENSITY WILL SLOWLY
DECREASE AS THE STORM WEAKENS. THE SNOW IS DRY AND POWDERY AND
CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING WILL CONTINUE, EVEN DURING
PERIODS WHEN THE SNOW LETS UP. A BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS UP FOR
DOWNEAST AREAS AND A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAIN UP ACROSS THE
NORTH. TOTAL AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM CLOSE TO 2 FEET ACROSS SOME
DOWNEAST AREAS TO JUST A FEW INCHES IN FAR NORTHWESTERN AROOSTOOK
COUNTY. A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS UP FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME SPLASHOVER DOWNEAST DURING HIGH TIDE AT 5 AM WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CLEARING SKIES ARRIVE WEDNESDAY EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS.
WINDS WILL DIE OFF LATER AND STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD
OCCUR WITH THE FRESH SNOWPACK. HAVE GONE BELOW GUIDANCE WITH
READINGS AS LOW AS FOURTEEN BELOW IN THE ALLAGASH. EVEN THE BANGOR
AREA SHOULD SEE READINGS IN THE MINUS FIVE TO MINUS TEN RANGE. TRANSIENT
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THURSDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS AND HIGHS IN THE
LOW TO MID 20S AS THE STEEP EARLY MORNING INVERSION ERODES. HIGH
CLOUDS INCREASE LATER IN THE DAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW. HIGH CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...SO TEMPERATURES WILL BE
STEADY OR RISING AFTER AN INITIAL DROP OFF IN THE EVENING.

SNOW WILL BREAK OUT LATE IN THE NIGHT AS A NORTHERN STREAM
CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND INTO
QUEBEC. THIS SYSTEM WILL NOT HAVE A LOT OF MOISTURE INITIALLY BUT
AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE COAST...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL DEEPEN
AND SHARPEN WITH  OCCURRING SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY OF CAPE
COD. AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL EXTEND NORTHWARD INTO MAINE AND
SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE STATE ON FRIDAY. ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL
START FEEDING INTO THE DYNAMICALLY EVOLVING LOW DURING FRIDAY AND
THE MOISTURE WILL STREAM NORTHWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THE
UPPER LOW WILL DEVELOP A NEGATIVE TILT AND BECOME A CUT-OFF DURING
FRIDAY. A STRONG JET IS EXPECTED ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH THAT WILL HELP ENSURE A CUT-OFF DEVELOPS. THE BIG QUESTION
WILL BE THE EXACT POSITION WHERE THE CUT-OFF DEVELOPS. THIS WILL
DETERMINE WHICH PART OF THE STATE RECEIVES THE MOST SNOW THROUGH
THE EVENT AND WHERE ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS ARE EVENTUALLY LAID
OUT. IF THE UPPER LEVEL CUT OFF FORMS IN SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...THEN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL
RECEIVE THE MOST SNOWFALL. IF THE CUT-OFF DEVELOPS IN THE GULF OF
MAINE...THEN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL RECEIVE
THE MOST SNOW. AS THIS TIME...HAVE TAKEN A CONSENSUS BLEND
APPROACH TO THE POSITION OF THE LOW...ITS ASSOCIATED INVERTED
TROUGH AND THE QPF. THIS RESULTED IN A SWATH OF FOUR TO SIX INCHES
FROM FORT KENT SOUTH TO PENOBSCOT BAY WITH LOWER AMOUNTS ALONG THE
EASTERN BORDER DURING FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH WARMER FOR
THIS EVENT. FRIDAY`S HIGHS WILL REACH THE LOWER 30S FOR MOST OF
THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL EXIT ACROSS THE MARITIMES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY WRAPPING SNOW BACK ACROSS THE REGION...WITH DECREASING
SNOW LATER SATURDAY. ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...THOUGH THE AMOUNT OF SNOW AND
LOCATION OF BEST ACCUMULATIONS ARE STILL UNCERTAIN. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. ANOTHER LOW WILL
APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING SNOW
CHANCES. THE TRACK OF THE LOW MONDAY IS STILL UNCERTAIN...WHETHER
ACROSS MAINE OR THE GULF OF MAINE. PRECIPITATION TYPES AND
AMOUNTS MONDAY WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF THE
LOW. THE LOW WILL THEN EXIT ACROSS THE MARITIMES TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT BELOW NORMAL LEVELS SATURDAY/SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW.
BELOW NORMAL LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW CAN BE
EXPECTED TONIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR WEDNESDAY
MORNING THEN VFR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE STORM MOVES AWAY AND
SOME CLEARING APPROACHES.

SHORT TERM: VFR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. IFR WILL DEVELOP
THURSDAY NIGHT DUE TO LOW CLOUDS. EXPECT IFR ON FRIDAY DUE TO SNOW
AND LOW CLOUDS. ACCUMULATING SNOW IS EXPECTED. IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY...WITH IMPROVING
CONDITIONS LATER SATURDAY. GENERALLY EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. CONDITIONS COULD THEN LOWER TO
MVFR/IFR LEVELS SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THIS MORNING. LIGHT TO
MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY CAN BE EXPECTED THIS MORNING.

SHORT TERM: AN SCA WILL END WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT SCA WILL BE
FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE. HIGH TIDE
OCCURS AT 5 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     MEZ001>006-010.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MEZ011-
     015>017-029>032.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MEZ029-
     030.
MARINE...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ052.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DUDA/VJN
SHORT TERM...MCW
LONG TERM...NORCROSS
AVIATION...DUDA/VJN/MCW
MARINE...DUDA/VJN/MCW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



000
FXUS61 KCAR 280525
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1225 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN WHILE TRACKING NORTHEAST
JUST SOUTH OF WESTERN NOVA SCOTIA LATE TONIGHT AND ACROSS EASTERN
NOVA SCOTIA ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
WEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. ANOTHER LOW WILL APPROACH
FROM THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT AND CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
UPDATE: NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO OVERNIGHT FORECAST.

ORGNL DISC: THE LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH HAS BEEN BRINGING
BANDS OF HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND
OCCLUDE AS IT SLOWLY MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE
TONIGHT. SNOW OF VARYING INTENSITY WILL CONTINUE TO OCCUR ACROSS
THE AREA TONIGHT ALTHOUGH IN GENERAL THE INTENSITY WILL SLOWLY
DECREASE AS THE STORM WEAKENS. THE SNOW IS DRY AND POWDERY AND
CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING WILL CONTINUE, EVEN DURING
PERIODS WHEN THE SNOW LETS UP. A BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS UP FOR
DOWNEAST AREAS AND A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAIN UP ACROSS THE
NORTH. TOTAL AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM CLOSE TO 2 FEET ACROSS SOME
DOWNEAST AREAS TO JUST A FEW INCHES IN FAR NORTHWESTERN AROOSTOOK
COUNTY. A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS UP FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME SPLASHOVER DOWNEAST DURING HIGH TIDE AT 5 AM WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CLEARING SKIES ARRIVE WEDNESDAY EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS.
WINDS WILL DIE OFF LATER AND STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD
OCCUR WITH THE FRESH SNOWPACK. HAVE GONE BELOW GUIDANCE WITH
READINGS AS LOW AS FOURTEEN BELOW IN THE ALLAGASH. EVEN THE BANGOR
AREA SHOULD SEE READINGS IN THE MINUS FIVE TO MINUS TEN RANGE. TRANSIENT
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THURSDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS AND HIGHS IN THE
LOW TO MID 20S AS THE STEEP EARLY MORNING INVERSION ERODES. HIGH
CLOUDS INCREASE LATER IN THE DAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW. HIGH CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...SO TEMPERATURES WILL BE
STEADY OR RISING AFTER AN INITIAL DROP OFF IN THE EVENING.

SNOW WILL BREAK OUT LATE IN THE NIGHT AS A NORTHERN STREAM
CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND INTO
QUEBEC. THIS SYSTEM WILL NOT HAVE A LOT OF MOISTURE INITIALLY BUT
AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE COAST...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL DEEPEN
AND SHARPEN WITH  OCCURRING SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY OF CAPE
COD. AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL EXTEND NORTHWARD INTO MAINE AND
SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE STATE ON FRIDAY. ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL
START FEEDING INTO THE DYNAMICALLY EVOLVING LOW DURING FRIDAY AND
THE MOISTURE WILL STREAM NORTHWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THE
UPPER LOW WILL DEVELOP A NEGATIVE TILT AND BECOME A CUT-OFF DURING
FRIDAY. A STRONG JET IS EXPECTED ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH THAT WILL HELP ENSURE A CUT-OFF DEVELOPS. THE BIG QUESTION
WILL BE THE EXACT POSITION WHERE THE CUT-OFF DEVELOPS. THIS WILL
DETERMINE WHICH PART OF THE STATE RECEIVES THE MOST SNOW THROUGH
THE EVENT AND WHERE ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS ARE EVENTUALLY LAID
OUT. IF THE UPPER LEVEL CUT OFF FORMS IN SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...THEN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL
RECEIVE THE MOST SNOWFALL. IF THE CUT-OFF DEVELOPS IN THE GULF OF
MAINE...THEN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL RECEIVE
THE MOST SNOW. AS THIS TIME...HAVE TAKEN A CONSENSUS BLEND
APPROACH TO THE POSITION OF THE LOW...ITS ASSOCIATED INVERTED
TROUGH AND THE QPF. THIS RESULTED IN A SWATH OF FOUR TO SIX INCHES
FROM FORT KENT SOUTH TO PENOBSCOT BAY WITH LOWER AMOUNTS ALONG THE
EASTERN BORDER DURING FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH WARMER FOR
THIS EVENT. FRIDAY`S HIGHS WILL REACH THE LOWER 30S FOR MOST OF
THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL EXIT ACROSS THE MARITIMES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY WRAPPING SNOW BACK ACROSS THE REGION...WITH DECREASING
SNOW LATER SATURDAY. ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...THOUGH THE AMOUNT OF SNOW AND
LOCATION OF BEST ACCUMULATIONS ARE STILL UNCERTAIN. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. ANOTHER LOW WILL
APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING SNOW
CHANCES. THE TRACK OF THE LOW MONDAY IS STILL UNCERTAIN...WHETHER
ACROSS MAINE OR THE GULF OF MAINE. PRECIPITATION TYPES AND
AMOUNTS MONDAY WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF THE
LOW. THE LOW WILL THEN EXIT ACROSS THE MARITIMES TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT BELOW NORMAL LEVELS SATURDAY/SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW.
BELOW NORMAL LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW CAN BE
EXPECTED TONIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR WEDNESDAY
MORNING THEN VFR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE STORM MOVES AWAY AND
SOME CLEARING APPROACHES.

SHORT TERM: VFR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. IFR WILL DEVELOP
THURSDAY NIGHT DUE TO LOW CLOUDS. EXPECT IFR ON FRIDAY DUE TO SNOW
AND LOW CLOUDS. ACCUMULATING SNOW IS EXPECTED. IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY...WITH IMPROVING
CONDITIONS LATER SATURDAY. GENERALLY EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. CONDITIONS COULD THEN LOWER TO
MVFR/IFR LEVELS SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THIS MORNING. LIGHT TO
MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY CAN BE EXPECTED THIS MORNING.

SHORT TERM: AN SCA WILL END WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT SCA WILL BE
FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE. HIGH TIDE
OCCURS AT 5 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     MEZ001>006-010.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MEZ011-
     015>017-029>032.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MEZ029-
     030.
MARINE...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ052.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DUDA/VJN
SHORT TERM...MCW
LONG TERM...NORCROSS
AVIATION...DUDA/VJN/MCW
MARINE...DUDA/VJN/MCW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KCAR 280321
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1021 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN WHILE TRACKING NORTHEAST
JUST SOUTH OF WESTERN NOVA SCOTIA LATE TONIGHT AND ACROSS EASTERN
NOVA SCOTIA ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
WEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. ANOTHER LOW WILL APPROACH
FROM THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT AND CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
1000 PM UPDATE: SOME RE-STRUCTURING OF THE WNTR WX HDLNS WAS
PERFORMED THIS UPDATE. GIVEN THAT WINDS HAVE DROPPED OFF SOMEWHAT
AND VSBYS HAVE MSLY RISEN ABV 1 MILE DUE TO THE LET UP OF FALLING
SN...WE HAVE LOWERED THE BLZRD WRNG TO A SN/BLSN ADV FOR DOWNEAST
ME AND WNTR STM WRNGS FOR THE NEXT TIER OF ZONES JUST N OF THE
PRIOR BLZRD WRNG ACROSS E CNTRL ME. ROADS REMAIN HAZARDOUS OVR
DOWNEAST AREAS...IN PARTICULAR COASTAL AND CNTRL WASHINGTON
COUNTY...SO WE BEEFED UP WORDING IN THE ADV FOR MOTORISTS TO CHECK
LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT TO INSURE ROADWAYS SUBJECT TO DRIFTING ARE
OPEN. OTHERWISE...WNTR STM WRNGS REMAIN UP ACROSS THE N FOR AT
LEAST A FEW MORE HRS WHERE THERE ARE STILL A FEW BANDS GOOD LGT
TO BRIEFLY MDT SNFL RATES.

ORGNL DISC: THE LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH HAS BEEN BRINGING
BANDS OF HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND
OCCLUDE AS IT SLOWLY MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE
TONIGHT. SNOW OF VARYING INTENSITY WILL CONTINUE TO OCCUR ACROSS
THE AREA TONIGHT ALTHOUGH IN GENERAL THE INTENSITY WILL SLOWLY
DECREASE AS THE STORM WEAKENS. THE SNOW IS DRY AND POWDERY AND
CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING WILL CONTINUE, EVEN DURING
PERIODS WHEN THE SNOW LETS UP. A BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS UP FOR
DOWNEAST AREAS AND A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAIN UP ACROSS THE
NORTH. TOTAL AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM CLOSE TO 2 FEET ACROSS SOME
DOWNEAST AREAS TO JUST A FEW INCHES IN FAR NORTHWESTERN AROOSTOOK
COUNTY. A FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS UP FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
SPLASHOVER DOWNEAST DURING HIGH TIDE AT 5 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CLEARING SKIES ARRIVE WEDNESDAY EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS.
WINDS WILL DIE OFF LATER AND STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD
OCCUR WITH THE FRESH SNOWPACK. HAVE GONE BELOW GUIDANCE WITH
READINGS AS LOW AS FOURTEEN BELOW IN THE ALLAGASH. EVEN THE BANGOR
AREA SHOULD SEE READINGS IN THE MINUS FIVE TO MINUS TEN RANGE. TRANSIENT
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THURSDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS AND HIGHS IN THE
LOW TO MID 20S AS THE STEEP EARLY MORNING INVERSION ERODES. HIGH
CLOUDS INCREASE LATER IN THE DAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW. HIGH CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...SO TEMPERATURES WILL BE
STEADY OR RISING AFTER AN INITIAL DROP OFF IN THE EVENING.

SNOW WILL BREAK OUT LATE IN THE NIGHT AS A NORTHERN STREAM
CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND INTO
QUEBEC. THIS SYSTEM WILL NOT HAVE A LOT OF MOISTURE INITIALLY BUT
AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE COAST...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL DEEPEN
AND SHARPEN WITH  OCCURRING SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY OF CAPE
COD. AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL EXTEND NORTHWARD INTO MAINE AND
SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE STATE ON FRIDAY. ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL
START FEEDING INTO THE DYNAMICALLY EVOLVING LOW DURING FRIDAY AND
THE MOISTURE WILL STREAM NORTHWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THE
UPPER LOW WILL DEVELOP A NEGATIVE TILT AND BECOME A CUT-OFF DURING
FRIDAY. A STRONG JET IS EXPECTED ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH THAT WILL HELP ENSURE A CUT-OFF DEVELOPS. THE BIG QUESTION
WILL BE THE EXACT POSITION WHERE THE CUT-OFF DEVELOPS. THIS WILL
DETERMINE WHICH PART OF THE STATE RECEIVES THE MOST SNOW THROUGH
THE EVENT AND WHERE ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS ARE EVENTUALLY LAID
OUT. IF THE UPPER LEVEL CUT OFF FORMS IN SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...THEN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL
RECEIVE THE MOST SNOWFALL. IF THE CUT-OFF DEVELOPS IN THE GULF OF
MAINE...THEN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL RECEIVE
THE MOST SNOW. AS THIS TIME...HAVE TAKEN A CONSENSUS BLEND
APPROACH TO THE POSITION OF THE LOW...ITS ASSOCIATED INVERTED
TROUGH AND THE QPF. THIS RESULTED IN A SWATH OF FOUR TO SIX INCHES
FROM FORT KENT SOUTH TO PENOBSCOT BAY WITH LOWER AMOUNTS ALONG THE
EASTERN BORDER DURING FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH WARMER FOR
THIS EVENT. FRIDAY`S HIGHS WILL REACH THE LOWER 30S FOR MOST OF
THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL EXIT ACROSS THE MARITIMES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY WRAPPING SNOW BACK ACROSS THE REGION...WITH DECREASING
SNOW LATER SATURDAY. ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...THOUGH THE AMOUNT OF SNOW AND
LOCATION OF BEST ACCUMULATIONS ARE STILL UNCERTAIN. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. ANOTHER LOW WILL
APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING SNOW
CHANCES. THE TRACK OF THE LOW MONDAY IS STILL UNCERTAIN...WHETHER
ACROSS MAINE OR THE GULF OF MAINE. PRECIPITATION TYPES AND
AMOUNTS MONDAY WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF THE
LOW. THE LOW WILL THEN EXIT ACROSS THE MARITIMES TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT BELOW NORMAL LEVELS SATURDAY/SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW.
BELOW NORMAL LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW CAN BE
EXPECTED TONIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR WEDNESDAY
MORNING THEN VFR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE STORM MOVES AWAY AND
SOME CLEARING APPROACHES.

SHORT TERM: VFR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. IFR WILL DEVELOP
THURSDAY NIGHT DUE TO LOW CLOUDS. EXPECT IFR ON FRIDAY DUE TO SNOW
AND LOW CLOUDS. ACCUMULATING SNOW IS EXPECTED. IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY...WITH IMPROVING
CONDITIONS LATER SATURDAY. GENERALLY EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. CONDITIONS COULD THEN LOWER TO
MVFR/IFR LEVELS SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: 1000 PM UPDATE...BUOYS INDICATE WIND GUSTS BLO 48 KTS
ATTM...SO WE LOWERED STM WRNGS FOR GALE WRNGS...AND KEEP THEM UP
TIL ABOUT 11 AM WED. THE INNER BAY/HARBOR MZ052 MAY BE TO SEE
AN SCA REPLACEMENT A FEW HRS EARLIER. WV HTS CONTINUE QUITE HIGH
OVR THE OUTER WATERS...RUNNING 3 TO 5 FT HIGHER THAN WW3 GUIDANCE
ATTM...BUT BELIEVE THEY SHOULD SUBSIDE CLOSER TO FCST WW3 WV HTS
BY WED MORN.

ORGNL DISC...A STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT TONIGHT FOR WINDS
GUSTING UP TO 60 KTS AS POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE VERY SLOWLY WEAKENS
AND MOVES NORTHEAST. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO A GALE WEDNESDAY
MORNING THEN AN SCA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY
REMAINS UP TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR MODERATE
FREEZING SPRAY.

SHORT TERM: AN SCA WILL END WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT SCA WILL BE
FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE. HIGH TIDE
OCCURS AT 5 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MEZ001>006-
     010.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MEZ011-
     015>017-029>032.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MEZ029-030.
MARINE...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ052.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...MCW
LONG TERM...NORCROSS
AVIATION...VJN/MCW
MARINE...VJN/MCW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



000
FXUS61 KGYX 280235
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
935 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN INTENSE NOREASTER WILL THE LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST THROUGH
THE GULF OF MAINE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN FOLLOW FOR
WEDNESDAY AND EARLY THURSDAY. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL LIKELY
BRING A GENERAL SNOWFALL TO THE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH
ANOTHER STORM HEADING TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY.

&&
02Z UPDATE...
ISSUING UPDATE TO DROP BLIZZARD WARNINGS...DOWN GRADING TO WINTER
STORM WARNINGS TO MATCH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
4 AM. SNOW QUICKLY FILLING IN ONCE AGAIN IN OUR EASTERN ZONES AND
CONTINUING TO ROTATE WESTWARD THROUGH THE FA. ALSO DROPPING STORMS
ON THE OUTER WATERS DOWN TO GALES THROUGH 15Z. NO OTHER CHANGES
PLANNED ATTM.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY SHOW INTENSE DEFORMATION BANDS
CONTINUING TO ROTATE ONSHORE FROM THE GULF OF MAINE. STRONG N
WINDS ARE MOVING INTO THE CENTER OF THE STORM... WHICH IS LOCATED
OFFSHORE AND EAST OF CAPE COD... HELPING TO KEEP BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS GOING OVER COASTAL AREAS. IN ADDITION HEAVY SNOW IS
HELPING DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER OF VERY STRONG WINDS ALOFT.
THIS STORM IS VERY IMPRESSIVE AND HAS EYEWALL- LIKE FEATURES...
IN ADDITION THERE IS SUBSIDENCE TO THE WEST WITH DEW POINTS NEAR
ZERO DEGREES F.

HAVE DROPPED OUR WESTERN COUNTIES ALONG THE CT RIVER VALLEY DOWN
TO ADVISORY LEVELS FOR BLOWING SNOW AND SOME LIGHT ADDITIONAL
SNOWFALL. HOWEVER THEY HAVE GOTTEN ONLY 2-4" OR LESS IN SOME
CASES... WHEREAS SOME COASTAL LOCATIONS ARE LIKELY IN THE UPPER
20S FOR STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS. WINTER STORM WARNINGS AND BLIZZARD
WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION...
INCLUDING NORTHERN COUNTIES... WHERE THE SOUTHERN HALF HAS BEEN
GETTING MUCH MORE SNOW THAN NORTHERN SECTIONS.

OMEGA AND FRONTOGENESIS PARAMETERS REMAIN IMPRESSIVE BUT HAVE
ALREADY BEGUN TO WEAKEN AS THE SURFACE LOW BEGINS TO FILL.
EVENTUALLY THE BAND(S) WILL SHRIVEL UP TO JUST THE CORE OVER
SOUTHERN CARROLL COUNTY NH TO SOUTHERN FRANKLIN COUNTY ME AND
DISSIPATE FROM THERE TONIGHT. BLIZZARD AND HEAVY SNOW WARNINGS
WILL LIKELY BE DROPPED SOMETIME OVERNIGHT.

COLD AIR HAS NOT LEFT WESTERN AND NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY. WITH VERY LOW DEW POINTS IN PLACE ALREADY...
LOWS WILL BE NEAR ZERO F THERE AND CLOSER TO 10 TO 15 F AS YOU
GO WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
COLD AND DRY AIR WILL BE DRAWN IN FROM CANADA AS THE SYSTEM
DEPARTS TO OUR EAST TOMORROW. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH THE TEENS
NORTH TO LOWER 20S SOUTH. COLD HP AIRMASS SETTLES IN EVEN FURTHER
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. TEMPERATURES TUMBLE
INTO THE NEGATIVE DIGITS NORTH TO LOWER POSITIVE DIGITS SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION EARLY THURSDAY BEFORE
PULLING OUT TO OUR EAST ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW AN ELONGATED
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE TO ENTER THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT.
THERE HAS NOT BEEN MUCH RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY WITH THIS SYSTEM AS
EARLIER RUNS CUT THE LOW OFF FURTHER TO OUR SOUTH...BRINGING HEAVY
SNOW TO THE REGION. NEW EURO AND THE CANADIAN MODEL CONTINUE TO BE
THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS SYSTEM...CUTTING IT OFF TO OUR
SOUTH. GFS IS THE MOST PROGRESSIVE WITH THIS SYSTEM.

NEXT SYSTEM COMES OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO ON MONDAY. NOT QUITE
READY TO JUMP ON THE WARM SOLUTION WITH THIS STORM AS PLENTY OF
COLD AIR AND SNOWPACK WILL BE INITIALLY IN PLACE OVER NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.

VERY COLD AIR TO FOLLOW...ALONG WITH STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
DURING THE MIDWEEK PERIOD NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM...HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR ALL TERMINALS PRODUCING LIFR AND IFR
CONDITIONS. NORTH WINDS GUSTING TO 30 KTS OR BETTER ALONG THE
COAST WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT WITH GUSTS DROPPING OFF TOWARDS
12Z AND BACKING TO THE NW. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD MOVE IN W TO E BY
12Z.

LONG TERM...
FRI...MVFR IN SNOW WITH LCL IFR CONDS PSSBL.
      NW SFC WIND GUSTING TO 25 KT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...A FREEZING SPRAY ADV IS IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING. GALES REMAIN UP FOR THE BAYS WITH STORM FORCE WINDS OVER
THE OUTER WATERS.

LONG TERM...
THU NIGHT - SAT...GALE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
LARGE...BATTERING WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO STRIKE THE COASTLINE
THROUGH THE UPCOMING 5 PM HIGH TIDE. LONG PERIOD SWELLS ARE NOW UP
TO 30 FEET AT JEFFREYS LEDGE. EXPECT LOCALLY SIGNIFICANT SPLASH-
OVER AND EROSION NEAR THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
WARNINGS REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THIS POTENTIAL HIGH IMPACT EVENT.

STORM SURGE VALUES WILL REMAIN JUST BELOW THREE FEET THIS
AFTERNOON...AND IN COMBINATION WITH A 9.1 FOOT ASTRONOMICAL TIDE
IN PORTLAND...MINOR FLOODING WILL LIKELY OCCUR AS THE STORM TIDE
REACHES 12 FEET. WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON
JUST PRIOR TO HIGH TIDE...WHICH MAY REDUCE THE STORM SURGE.

USED THE NORTH ATLANTIC REGIONAL TEAM WAVE RUNUP MATRICES TO
FORECAST AND WARN FOR THE TWO HIGH TIDES TODAY. THE OUTPUT SHOWS
WAVE ACTION WILL ALLOW FOR LOCALLY SIGNIFICANT EROSION AS WELL AS
OVERWASH AT JENNIS...CAMP ELLIS BEACH...FERRY BEACH...FORTUNES
ROCKS BEACH...WITH EROSION OCCURRING AT POPHAM BEACH. WILL
INCLUDE THIS INFORMATION IN THE WARNINGS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MEZ007>009-
     012>014-018>028.
NH...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NHZ004-006-
     008>010-012>015.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     NHZ001>003-005-007-011.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ151-153.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ150>154.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KGYX 280235
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
935 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN INTENSE NOREASTER WILL THE LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST THROUGH
THE GULF OF MAINE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN FOLLOW FOR
WEDNESDAY AND EARLY THURSDAY. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL LIKELY
BRING A GENERAL SNOWFALL TO THE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH
ANOTHER STORM HEADING TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY.

&&
02Z UPDATE...
ISSUING UPDATE TO DROP BLIZZARD WARNINGS...DOWN GRADING TO WINTER
STORM WARNINGS TO MATCH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
4 AM. SNOW QUICKLY FILLING IN ONCE AGAIN IN OUR EASTERN ZONES AND
CONTINUING TO ROTATE WESTWARD THROUGH THE FA. ALSO DROPPING STORMS
ON THE OUTER WATERS DOWN TO GALES THROUGH 15Z. NO OTHER CHANGES
PLANNED ATTM.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY SHOW INTENSE DEFORMATION BANDS
CONTINUING TO ROTATE ONSHORE FROM THE GULF OF MAINE. STRONG N
WINDS ARE MOVING INTO THE CENTER OF THE STORM... WHICH IS LOCATED
OFFSHORE AND EAST OF CAPE COD... HELPING TO KEEP BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS GOING OVER COASTAL AREAS. IN ADDITION HEAVY SNOW IS
HELPING DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER OF VERY STRONG WINDS ALOFT.
THIS STORM IS VERY IMPRESSIVE AND HAS EYEWALL- LIKE FEATURES...
IN ADDITION THERE IS SUBSIDENCE TO THE WEST WITH DEW POINTS NEAR
ZERO DEGREES F.

HAVE DROPPED OUR WESTERN COUNTIES ALONG THE CT RIVER VALLEY DOWN
TO ADVISORY LEVELS FOR BLOWING SNOW AND SOME LIGHT ADDITIONAL
SNOWFALL. HOWEVER THEY HAVE GOTTEN ONLY 2-4" OR LESS IN SOME
CASES... WHEREAS SOME COASTAL LOCATIONS ARE LIKELY IN THE UPPER
20S FOR STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS. WINTER STORM WARNINGS AND BLIZZARD
WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION...
INCLUDING NORTHERN COUNTIES... WHERE THE SOUTHERN HALF HAS BEEN
GETTING MUCH MORE SNOW THAN NORTHERN SECTIONS.

OMEGA AND FRONTOGENESIS PARAMETERS REMAIN IMPRESSIVE BUT HAVE
ALREADY BEGUN TO WEAKEN AS THE SURFACE LOW BEGINS TO FILL.
EVENTUALLY THE BAND(S) WILL SHRIVEL UP TO JUST THE CORE OVER
SOUTHERN CARROLL COUNTY NH TO SOUTHERN FRANKLIN COUNTY ME AND
DISSIPATE FROM THERE TONIGHT. BLIZZARD AND HEAVY SNOW WARNINGS
WILL LIKELY BE DROPPED SOMETIME OVERNIGHT.

COLD AIR HAS NOT LEFT WESTERN AND NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY. WITH VERY LOW DEW POINTS IN PLACE ALREADY...
LOWS WILL BE NEAR ZERO F THERE AND CLOSER TO 10 TO 15 F AS YOU
GO WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
COLD AND DRY AIR WILL BE DRAWN IN FROM CANADA AS THE SYSTEM
DEPARTS TO OUR EAST TOMORROW. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH THE TEENS
NORTH TO LOWER 20S SOUTH. COLD HP AIRMASS SETTLES IN EVEN FURTHER
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. TEMPERATURES TUMBLE
INTO THE NEGATIVE DIGITS NORTH TO LOWER POSITIVE DIGITS SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION EARLY THURSDAY BEFORE
PULLING OUT TO OUR EAST ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW AN ELONGATED
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE TO ENTER THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT.
THERE HAS NOT BEEN MUCH RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY WITH THIS SYSTEM AS
EARLIER RUNS CUT THE LOW OFF FURTHER TO OUR SOUTH...BRINGING HEAVY
SNOW TO THE REGION. NEW EURO AND THE CANADIAN MODEL CONTINUE TO BE
THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS SYSTEM...CUTTING IT OFF TO OUR
SOUTH. GFS IS THE MOST PROGRESSIVE WITH THIS SYSTEM.

NEXT SYSTEM COMES OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO ON MONDAY. NOT QUITE
READY TO JUMP ON THE WARM SOLUTION WITH THIS STORM AS PLENTY OF
COLD AIR AND SNOWPACK WILL BE INITIALLY IN PLACE OVER NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.

VERY COLD AIR TO FOLLOW...ALONG WITH STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
DURING THE MIDWEEK PERIOD NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM...HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR ALL TERMINALS PRODUCING LIFR AND IFR
CONDITIONS. NORTH WINDS GUSTING TO 30 KTS OR BETTER ALONG THE
COAST WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT WITH GUSTS DROPPING OFF TOWARDS
12Z AND BACKING TO THE NW. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD MOVE IN W TO E BY
12Z.

LONG TERM...
FRI...MVFR IN SNOW WITH LCL IFR CONDS PSSBL.
      NW SFC WIND GUSTING TO 25 KT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...A FREEZING SPRAY ADV IS IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING. GALES REMAIN UP FOR THE BAYS WITH STORM FORCE WINDS OVER
THE OUTER WATERS.

LONG TERM...
THU NIGHT - SAT...GALE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
LARGE...BATTERING WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO STRIKE THE COASTLINE
THROUGH THE UPCOMING 5 PM HIGH TIDE. LONG PERIOD SWELLS ARE NOW UP
TO 30 FEET AT JEFFREYS LEDGE. EXPECT LOCALLY SIGNIFICANT SPLASH-
OVER AND EROSION NEAR THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
WARNINGS REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THIS POTENTIAL HIGH IMPACT EVENT.

STORM SURGE VALUES WILL REMAIN JUST BELOW THREE FEET THIS
AFTERNOON...AND IN COMBINATION WITH A 9.1 FOOT ASTRONOMICAL TIDE
IN PORTLAND...MINOR FLOODING WILL LIKELY OCCUR AS THE STORM TIDE
REACHES 12 FEET. WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON
JUST PRIOR TO HIGH TIDE...WHICH MAY REDUCE THE STORM SURGE.

USED THE NORTH ATLANTIC REGIONAL TEAM WAVE RUNUP MATRICES TO
FORECAST AND WARN FOR THE TWO HIGH TIDES TODAY. THE OUTPUT SHOWS
WAVE ACTION WILL ALLOW FOR LOCALLY SIGNIFICANT EROSION AS WELL AS
OVERWASH AT JENNIS...CAMP ELLIS BEACH...FERRY BEACH...FORTUNES
ROCKS BEACH...WITH EROSION OCCURRING AT POPHAM BEACH. WILL
INCLUDE THIS INFORMATION IN THE WARNINGS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MEZ007>009-
     012>014-018>028.
NH...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NHZ004-006-
     008>010-012>015.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     NHZ001>003-005-007-011.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ151-153.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ150>154.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KGYX 280235
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
935 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN INTENSE NOREASTER WILL THE LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST THROUGH
THE GULF OF MAINE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN FOLLOW FOR
WEDNESDAY AND EARLY THURSDAY. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL LIKELY
BRING A GENERAL SNOWFALL TO THE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH
ANOTHER STORM HEADING TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY.

&&
02Z UPDATE...
ISSUING UPDATE TO DROP BLIZZARD WARNINGS...DOWN GRADING TO WINTER
STORM WARNINGS TO MATCH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
4 AM. SNOW QUICKLY FILLING IN ONCE AGAIN IN OUR EASTERN ZONES AND
CONTINUING TO ROTATE WESTWARD THROUGH THE FA. ALSO DROPPING STORMS
ON THE OUTER WATERS DOWN TO GALES THROUGH 15Z. NO OTHER CHANGES
PLANNED ATTM.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY SHOW INTENSE DEFORMATION BANDS
CONTINUING TO ROTATE ONSHORE FROM THE GULF OF MAINE. STRONG N
WINDS ARE MOVING INTO THE CENTER OF THE STORM... WHICH IS LOCATED
OFFSHORE AND EAST OF CAPE COD... HELPING TO KEEP BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS GOING OVER COASTAL AREAS. IN ADDITION HEAVY SNOW IS
HELPING DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER OF VERY STRONG WINDS ALOFT.
THIS STORM IS VERY IMPRESSIVE AND HAS EYEWALL- LIKE FEATURES...
IN ADDITION THERE IS SUBSIDENCE TO THE WEST WITH DEW POINTS NEAR
ZERO DEGREES F.

HAVE DROPPED OUR WESTERN COUNTIES ALONG THE CT RIVER VALLEY DOWN
TO ADVISORY LEVELS FOR BLOWING SNOW AND SOME LIGHT ADDITIONAL
SNOWFALL. HOWEVER THEY HAVE GOTTEN ONLY 2-4" OR LESS IN SOME
CASES... WHEREAS SOME COASTAL LOCATIONS ARE LIKELY IN THE UPPER
20S FOR STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS. WINTER STORM WARNINGS AND BLIZZARD
WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION...
INCLUDING NORTHERN COUNTIES... WHERE THE SOUTHERN HALF HAS BEEN
GETTING MUCH MORE SNOW THAN NORTHERN SECTIONS.

OMEGA AND FRONTOGENESIS PARAMETERS REMAIN IMPRESSIVE BUT HAVE
ALREADY BEGUN TO WEAKEN AS THE SURFACE LOW BEGINS TO FILL.
EVENTUALLY THE BAND(S) WILL SHRIVEL UP TO JUST THE CORE OVER
SOUTHERN CARROLL COUNTY NH TO SOUTHERN FRANKLIN COUNTY ME AND
DISSIPATE FROM THERE TONIGHT. BLIZZARD AND HEAVY SNOW WARNINGS
WILL LIKELY BE DROPPED SOMETIME OVERNIGHT.

COLD AIR HAS NOT LEFT WESTERN AND NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY. WITH VERY LOW DEW POINTS IN PLACE ALREADY...
LOWS WILL BE NEAR ZERO F THERE AND CLOSER TO 10 TO 15 F AS YOU
GO WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
COLD AND DRY AIR WILL BE DRAWN IN FROM CANADA AS THE SYSTEM
DEPARTS TO OUR EAST TOMORROW. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH THE TEENS
NORTH TO LOWER 20S SOUTH. COLD HP AIRMASS SETTLES IN EVEN FURTHER
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. TEMPERATURES TUMBLE
INTO THE NEGATIVE DIGITS NORTH TO LOWER POSITIVE DIGITS SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION EARLY THURSDAY BEFORE
PULLING OUT TO OUR EAST ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW AN ELONGATED
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE TO ENTER THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT.
THERE HAS NOT BEEN MUCH RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY WITH THIS SYSTEM AS
EARLIER RUNS CUT THE LOW OFF FURTHER TO OUR SOUTH...BRINGING HEAVY
SNOW TO THE REGION. NEW EURO AND THE CANADIAN MODEL CONTINUE TO BE
THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS SYSTEM...CUTTING IT OFF TO OUR
SOUTH. GFS IS THE MOST PROGRESSIVE WITH THIS SYSTEM.

NEXT SYSTEM COMES OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO ON MONDAY. NOT QUITE
READY TO JUMP ON THE WARM SOLUTION WITH THIS STORM AS PLENTY OF
COLD AIR AND SNOWPACK WILL BE INITIALLY IN PLACE OVER NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.

VERY COLD AIR TO FOLLOW...ALONG WITH STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
DURING THE MIDWEEK PERIOD NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM...HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR ALL TERMINALS PRODUCING LIFR AND IFR
CONDITIONS. NORTH WINDS GUSTING TO 30 KTS OR BETTER ALONG THE
COAST WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT WITH GUSTS DROPPING OFF TOWARDS
12Z AND BACKING TO THE NW. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD MOVE IN W TO E BY
12Z.

LONG TERM...
FRI...MVFR IN SNOW WITH LCL IFR CONDS PSSBL.
      NW SFC WIND GUSTING TO 25 KT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...A FREEZING SPRAY ADV IS IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING. GALES REMAIN UP FOR THE BAYS WITH STORM FORCE WINDS OVER
THE OUTER WATERS.

LONG TERM...
THU NIGHT - SAT...GALE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
LARGE...BATTERING WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO STRIKE THE COASTLINE
THROUGH THE UPCOMING 5 PM HIGH TIDE. LONG PERIOD SWELLS ARE NOW UP
TO 30 FEET AT JEFFREYS LEDGE. EXPECT LOCALLY SIGNIFICANT SPLASH-
OVER AND EROSION NEAR THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
WARNINGS REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THIS POTENTIAL HIGH IMPACT EVENT.

STORM SURGE VALUES WILL REMAIN JUST BELOW THREE FEET THIS
AFTERNOON...AND IN COMBINATION WITH A 9.1 FOOT ASTRONOMICAL TIDE
IN PORTLAND...MINOR FLOODING WILL LIKELY OCCUR AS THE STORM TIDE
REACHES 12 FEET. WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON
JUST PRIOR TO HIGH TIDE...WHICH MAY REDUCE THE STORM SURGE.

USED THE NORTH ATLANTIC REGIONAL TEAM WAVE RUNUP MATRICES TO
FORECAST AND WARN FOR THE TWO HIGH TIDES TODAY. THE OUTPUT SHOWS
WAVE ACTION WILL ALLOW FOR LOCALLY SIGNIFICANT EROSION AS WELL AS
OVERWASH AT JENNIS...CAMP ELLIS BEACH...FERRY BEACH...FORTUNES
ROCKS BEACH...WITH EROSION OCCURRING AT POPHAM BEACH. WILL
INCLUDE THIS INFORMATION IN THE WARNINGS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MEZ007>009-
     012>014-018>028.
NH...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NHZ004-006-
     008>010-012>015.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     NHZ001>003-005-007-011.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ151-153.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ150>154.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KGYX 280235
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
935 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN INTENSE NOREASTER WILL THE LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST THROUGH
THE GULF OF MAINE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN FOLLOW FOR
WEDNESDAY AND EARLY THURSDAY. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL LIKELY
BRING A GENERAL SNOWFALL TO THE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH
ANOTHER STORM HEADING TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY.

&&
02Z UPDATE...
ISSUING UPDATE TO DROP BLIZZARD WARNINGS...DOWN GRADING TO WINTER
STORM WARNINGS TO MATCH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
4 AM. SNOW QUICKLY FILLING IN ONCE AGAIN IN OUR EASTERN ZONES AND
CONTINUING TO ROTATE WESTWARD THROUGH THE FA. ALSO DROPPING STORMS
ON THE OUTER WATERS DOWN TO GALES THROUGH 15Z. NO OTHER CHANGES
PLANNED ATTM.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY SHOW INTENSE DEFORMATION BANDS
CONTINUING TO ROTATE ONSHORE FROM THE GULF OF MAINE. STRONG N
WINDS ARE MOVING INTO THE CENTER OF THE STORM... WHICH IS LOCATED
OFFSHORE AND EAST OF CAPE COD... HELPING TO KEEP BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS GOING OVER COASTAL AREAS. IN ADDITION HEAVY SNOW IS
HELPING DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER OF VERY STRONG WINDS ALOFT.
THIS STORM IS VERY IMPRESSIVE AND HAS EYEWALL- LIKE FEATURES...
IN ADDITION THERE IS SUBSIDENCE TO THE WEST WITH DEW POINTS NEAR
ZERO DEGREES F.

HAVE DROPPED OUR WESTERN COUNTIES ALONG THE CT RIVER VALLEY DOWN
TO ADVISORY LEVELS FOR BLOWING SNOW AND SOME LIGHT ADDITIONAL
SNOWFALL. HOWEVER THEY HAVE GOTTEN ONLY 2-4" OR LESS IN SOME
CASES... WHEREAS SOME COASTAL LOCATIONS ARE LIKELY IN THE UPPER
20S FOR STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS. WINTER STORM WARNINGS AND BLIZZARD
WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION...
INCLUDING NORTHERN COUNTIES... WHERE THE SOUTHERN HALF HAS BEEN
GETTING MUCH MORE SNOW THAN NORTHERN SECTIONS.

OMEGA AND FRONTOGENESIS PARAMETERS REMAIN IMPRESSIVE BUT HAVE
ALREADY BEGUN TO WEAKEN AS THE SURFACE LOW BEGINS TO FILL.
EVENTUALLY THE BAND(S) WILL SHRIVEL UP TO JUST THE CORE OVER
SOUTHERN CARROLL COUNTY NH TO SOUTHERN FRANKLIN COUNTY ME AND
DISSIPATE FROM THERE TONIGHT. BLIZZARD AND HEAVY SNOW WARNINGS
WILL LIKELY BE DROPPED SOMETIME OVERNIGHT.

COLD AIR HAS NOT LEFT WESTERN AND NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY. WITH VERY LOW DEW POINTS IN PLACE ALREADY...
LOWS WILL BE NEAR ZERO F THERE AND CLOSER TO 10 TO 15 F AS YOU
GO WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
COLD AND DRY AIR WILL BE DRAWN IN FROM CANADA AS THE SYSTEM
DEPARTS TO OUR EAST TOMORROW. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH THE TEENS
NORTH TO LOWER 20S SOUTH. COLD HP AIRMASS SETTLES IN EVEN FURTHER
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. TEMPERATURES TUMBLE
INTO THE NEGATIVE DIGITS NORTH TO LOWER POSITIVE DIGITS SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION EARLY THURSDAY BEFORE
PULLING OUT TO OUR EAST ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW AN ELONGATED
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE TO ENTER THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT.
THERE HAS NOT BEEN MUCH RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY WITH THIS SYSTEM AS
EARLIER RUNS CUT THE LOW OFF FURTHER TO OUR SOUTH...BRINGING HEAVY
SNOW TO THE REGION. NEW EURO AND THE CANADIAN MODEL CONTINUE TO BE
THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS SYSTEM...CUTTING IT OFF TO OUR
SOUTH. GFS IS THE MOST PROGRESSIVE WITH THIS SYSTEM.

NEXT SYSTEM COMES OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO ON MONDAY. NOT QUITE
READY TO JUMP ON THE WARM SOLUTION WITH THIS STORM AS PLENTY OF
COLD AIR AND SNOWPACK WILL BE INITIALLY IN PLACE OVER NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.

VERY COLD AIR TO FOLLOW...ALONG WITH STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
DURING THE MIDWEEK PERIOD NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM...HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR ALL TERMINALS PRODUCING LIFR AND IFR
CONDITIONS. NORTH WINDS GUSTING TO 30 KTS OR BETTER ALONG THE
COAST WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT WITH GUSTS DROPPING OFF TOWARDS
12Z AND BACKING TO THE NW. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD MOVE IN W TO E BY
12Z.

LONG TERM...
FRI...MVFR IN SNOW WITH LCL IFR CONDS PSSBL.
      NW SFC WIND GUSTING TO 25 KT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...A FREEZING SPRAY ADV IS IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING. GALES REMAIN UP FOR THE BAYS WITH STORM FORCE WINDS OVER
THE OUTER WATERS.

LONG TERM...
THU NIGHT - SAT...GALE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
LARGE...BATTERING WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO STRIKE THE COASTLINE
THROUGH THE UPCOMING 5 PM HIGH TIDE. LONG PERIOD SWELLS ARE NOW UP
TO 30 FEET AT JEFFREYS LEDGE. EXPECT LOCALLY SIGNIFICANT SPLASH-
OVER AND EROSION NEAR THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
WARNINGS REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THIS POTENTIAL HIGH IMPACT EVENT.

STORM SURGE VALUES WILL REMAIN JUST BELOW THREE FEET THIS
AFTERNOON...AND IN COMBINATION WITH A 9.1 FOOT ASTRONOMICAL TIDE
IN PORTLAND...MINOR FLOODING WILL LIKELY OCCUR AS THE STORM TIDE
REACHES 12 FEET. WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON
JUST PRIOR TO HIGH TIDE...WHICH MAY REDUCE THE STORM SURGE.

USED THE NORTH ATLANTIC REGIONAL TEAM WAVE RUNUP MATRICES TO
FORECAST AND WARN FOR THE TWO HIGH TIDES TODAY. THE OUTPUT SHOWS
WAVE ACTION WILL ALLOW FOR LOCALLY SIGNIFICANT EROSION AS WELL AS
OVERWASH AT JENNIS...CAMP ELLIS BEACH...FERRY BEACH...FORTUNES
ROCKS BEACH...WITH EROSION OCCURRING AT POPHAM BEACH. WILL
INCLUDE THIS INFORMATION IN THE WARNINGS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MEZ007>009-
     012>014-018>028.
NH...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NHZ004-006-
     008>010-012>015.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     NHZ001>003-005-007-011.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ151-153.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ150>154.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KGYX 280235
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
935 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN INTENSE NOREASTER WILL THE LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST THROUGH
THE GULF OF MAINE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN FOLLOW FOR
WEDNESDAY AND EARLY THURSDAY. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL LIKELY
BRING A GENERAL SNOWFALL TO THE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH
ANOTHER STORM HEADING TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY.

&&
02Z UPDATE...
ISSUING UPDATE TO DROP BLIZZARD WARNINGS...DOWN GRADING TO WINTER
STORM WARNINGS TO MATCH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
4 AM. SNOW QUICKLY FILLING IN ONCE AGAIN IN OUR EASTERN ZONES AND
CONTINUING TO ROTATE WESTWARD THROUGH THE FA. ALSO DROPPING STORMS
ON THE OUTER WATERS DOWN TO GALES THROUGH 15Z. NO OTHER CHANGES
PLANNED ATTM.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY SHOW INTENSE DEFORMATION BANDS
CONTINUING TO ROTATE ONSHORE FROM THE GULF OF MAINE. STRONG N
WINDS ARE MOVING INTO THE CENTER OF THE STORM... WHICH IS LOCATED
OFFSHORE AND EAST OF CAPE COD... HELPING TO KEEP BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS GOING OVER COASTAL AREAS. IN ADDITION HEAVY SNOW IS
HELPING DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER OF VERY STRONG WINDS ALOFT.
THIS STORM IS VERY IMPRESSIVE AND HAS EYEWALL- LIKE FEATURES...
IN ADDITION THERE IS SUBSIDENCE TO THE WEST WITH DEW POINTS NEAR
ZERO DEGREES F.

HAVE DROPPED OUR WESTERN COUNTIES ALONG THE CT RIVER VALLEY DOWN
TO ADVISORY LEVELS FOR BLOWING SNOW AND SOME LIGHT ADDITIONAL
SNOWFALL. HOWEVER THEY HAVE GOTTEN ONLY 2-4" OR LESS IN SOME
CASES... WHEREAS SOME COASTAL LOCATIONS ARE LIKELY IN THE UPPER
20S FOR STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS. WINTER STORM WARNINGS AND BLIZZARD
WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION...
INCLUDING NORTHERN COUNTIES... WHERE THE SOUTHERN HALF HAS BEEN
GETTING MUCH MORE SNOW THAN NORTHERN SECTIONS.

OMEGA AND FRONTOGENESIS PARAMETERS REMAIN IMPRESSIVE BUT HAVE
ALREADY BEGUN TO WEAKEN AS THE SURFACE LOW BEGINS TO FILL.
EVENTUALLY THE BAND(S) WILL SHRIVEL UP TO JUST THE CORE OVER
SOUTHERN CARROLL COUNTY NH TO SOUTHERN FRANKLIN COUNTY ME AND
DISSIPATE FROM THERE TONIGHT. BLIZZARD AND HEAVY SNOW WARNINGS
WILL LIKELY BE DROPPED SOMETIME OVERNIGHT.

COLD AIR HAS NOT LEFT WESTERN AND NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY. WITH VERY LOW DEW POINTS IN PLACE ALREADY...
LOWS WILL BE NEAR ZERO F THERE AND CLOSER TO 10 TO 15 F AS YOU
GO WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
COLD AND DRY AIR WILL BE DRAWN IN FROM CANADA AS THE SYSTEM
DEPARTS TO OUR EAST TOMORROW. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH THE TEENS
NORTH TO LOWER 20S SOUTH. COLD HP AIRMASS SETTLES IN EVEN FURTHER
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. TEMPERATURES TUMBLE
INTO THE NEGATIVE DIGITS NORTH TO LOWER POSITIVE DIGITS SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION EARLY THURSDAY BEFORE
PULLING OUT TO OUR EAST ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW AN ELONGATED
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE TO ENTER THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT.
THERE HAS NOT BEEN MUCH RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY WITH THIS SYSTEM AS
EARLIER RUNS CUT THE LOW OFF FURTHER TO OUR SOUTH...BRINGING HEAVY
SNOW TO THE REGION. NEW EURO AND THE CANADIAN MODEL CONTINUE TO BE
THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS SYSTEM...CUTTING IT OFF TO OUR
SOUTH. GFS IS THE MOST PROGRESSIVE WITH THIS SYSTEM.

NEXT SYSTEM COMES OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO ON MONDAY. NOT QUITE
READY TO JUMP ON THE WARM SOLUTION WITH THIS STORM AS PLENTY OF
COLD AIR AND SNOWPACK WILL BE INITIALLY IN PLACE OVER NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.

VERY COLD AIR TO FOLLOW...ALONG WITH STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
DURING THE MIDWEEK PERIOD NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM...HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR ALL TERMINALS PRODUCING LIFR AND IFR
CONDITIONS. NORTH WINDS GUSTING TO 30 KTS OR BETTER ALONG THE
COAST WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT WITH GUSTS DROPPING OFF TOWARDS
12Z AND BACKING TO THE NW. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD MOVE IN W TO E BY
12Z.

LONG TERM...
FRI...MVFR IN SNOW WITH LCL IFR CONDS PSSBL.
      NW SFC WIND GUSTING TO 25 KT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...A FREEZING SPRAY ADV IS IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING. GALES REMAIN UP FOR THE BAYS WITH STORM FORCE WINDS OVER
THE OUTER WATERS.

LONG TERM...
THU NIGHT - SAT...GALE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
LARGE...BATTERING WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO STRIKE THE COASTLINE
THROUGH THE UPCOMING 5 PM HIGH TIDE. LONG PERIOD SWELLS ARE NOW UP
TO 30 FEET AT JEFFREYS LEDGE. EXPECT LOCALLY SIGNIFICANT SPLASH-
OVER AND EROSION NEAR THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
WARNINGS REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THIS POTENTIAL HIGH IMPACT EVENT.

STORM SURGE VALUES WILL REMAIN JUST BELOW THREE FEET THIS
AFTERNOON...AND IN COMBINATION WITH A 9.1 FOOT ASTRONOMICAL TIDE
IN PORTLAND...MINOR FLOODING WILL LIKELY OCCUR AS THE STORM TIDE
REACHES 12 FEET. WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON
JUST PRIOR TO HIGH TIDE...WHICH MAY REDUCE THE STORM SURGE.

USED THE NORTH ATLANTIC REGIONAL TEAM WAVE RUNUP MATRICES TO
FORECAST AND WARN FOR THE TWO HIGH TIDES TODAY. THE OUTPUT SHOWS
WAVE ACTION WILL ALLOW FOR LOCALLY SIGNIFICANT EROSION AS WELL AS
OVERWASH AT JENNIS...CAMP ELLIS BEACH...FERRY BEACH...FORTUNES
ROCKS BEACH...WITH EROSION OCCURRING AT POPHAM BEACH. WILL
INCLUDE THIS INFORMATION IN THE WARNINGS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MEZ007>009-
     012>014-018>028.
NH...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NHZ004-006-
     008>010-012>015.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     NHZ001>003-005-007-011.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ151-153.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ150>154.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KGYX 280235
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
935 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN INTENSE NOREASTER WILL THE LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST THROUGH
THE GULF OF MAINE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN FOLLOW FOR
WEDNESDAY AND EARLY THURSDAY. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL LIKELY
BRING A GENERAL SNOWFALL TO THE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH
ANOTHER STORM HEADING TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY.

&&
02Z UPDATE...
ISSUING UPDATE TO DROP BLIZZARD WARNINGS...DOWN GRADING TO WINTER
STORM WARNINGS TO MATCH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
4 AM. SNOW QUICKLY FILLING IN ONCE AGAIN IN OUR EASTERN ZONES AND
CONTINUING TO ROTATE WESTWARD THROUGH THE FA. ALSO DROPPING STORMS
ON THE OUTER WATERS DOWN TO GALES THROUGH 15Z. NO OTHER CHANGES
PLANNED ATTM.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY SHOW INTENSE DEFORMATION BANDS
CONTINUING TO ROTATE ONSHORE FROM THE GULF OF MAINE. STRONG N
WINDS ARE MOVING INTO THE CENTER OF THE STORM... WHICH IS LOCATED
OFFSHORE AND EAST OF CAPE COD... HELPING TO KEEP BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS GOING OVER COASTAL AREAS. IN ADDITION HEAVY SNOW IS
HELPING DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER OF VERY STRONG WINDS ALOFT.
THIS STORM IS VERY IMPRESSIVE AND HAS EYEWALL- LIKE FEATURES...
IN ADDITION THERE IS SUBSIDENCE TO THE WEST WITH DEW POINTS NEAR
ZERO DEGREES F.

HAVE DROPPED OUR WESTERN COUNTIES ALONG THE CT RIVER VALLEY DOWN
TO ADVISORY LEVELS FOR BLOWING SNOW AND SOME LIGHT ADDITIONAL
SNOWFALL. HOWEVER THEY HAVE GOTTEN ONLY 2-4" OR LESS IN SOME
CASES... WHEREAS SOME COASTAL LOCATIONS ARE LIKELY IN THE UPPER
20S FOR STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS. WINTER STORM WARNINGS AND BLIZZARD
WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION...
INCLUDING NORTHERN COUNTIES... WHERE THE SOUTHERN HALF HAS BEEN
GETTING MUCH MORE SNOW THAN NORTHERN SECTIONS.

OMEGA AND FRONTOGENESIS PARAMETERS REMAIN IMPRESSIVE BUT HAVE
ALREADY BEGUN TO WEAKEN AS THE SURFACE LOW BEGINS TO FILL.
EVENTUALLY THE BAND(S) WILL SHRIVEL UP TO JUST THE CORE OVER
SOUTHERN CARROLL COUNTY NH TO SOUTHERN FRANKLIN COUNTY ME AND
DISSIPATE FROM THERE TONIGHT. BLIZZARD AND HEAVY SNOW WARNINGS
WILL LIKELY BE DROPPED SOMETIME OVERNIGHT.

COLD AIR HAS NOT LEFT WESTERN AND NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY. WITH VERY LOW DEW POINTS IN PLACE ALREADY...
LOWS WILL BE NEAR ZERO F THERE AND CLOSER TO 10 TO 15 F AS YOU
GO WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
COLD AND DRY AIR WILL BE DRAWN IN FROM CANADA AS THE SYSTEM
DEPARTS TO OUR EAST TOMORROW. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH THE TEENS
NORTH TO LOWER 20S SOUTH. COLD HP AIRMASS SETTLES IN EVEN FURTHER
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. TEMPERATURES TUMBLE
INTO THE NEGATIVE DIGITS NORTH TO LOWER POSITIVE DIGITS SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION EARLY THURSDAY BEFORE
PULLING OUT TO OUR EAST ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW AN ELONGATED
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE TO ENTER THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT.
THERE HAS NOT BEEN MUCH RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY WITH THIS SYSTEM AS
EARLIER RUNS CUT THE LOW OFF FURTHER TO OUR SOUTH...BRINGING HEAVY
SNOW TO THE REGION. NEW EURO AND THE CANADIAN MODEL CONTINUE TO BE
THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS SYSTEM...CUTTING IT OFF TO OUR
SOUTH. GFS IS THE MOST PROGRESSIVE WITH THIS SYSTEM.

NEXT SYSTEM COMES OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO ON MONDAY. NOT QUITE
READY TO JUMP ON THE WARM SOLUTION WITH THIS STORM AS PLENTY OF
COLD AIR AND SNOWPACK WILL BE INITIALLY IN PLACE OVER NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.

VERY COLD AIR TO FOLLOW...ALONG WITH STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
DURING THE MIDWEEK PERIOD NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM...HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR ALL TERMINALS PRODUCING LIFR AND IFR
CONDITIONS. NORTH WINDS GUSTING TO 30 KTS OR BETTER ALONG THE
COAST WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT WITH GUSTS DROPPING OFF TOWARDS
12Z AND BACKING TO THE NW. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD MOVE IN W TO E BY
12Z.

LONG TERM...
FRI...MVFR IN SNOW WITH LCL IFR CONDS PSSBL.
      NW SFC WIND GUSTING TO 25 KT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...A FREEZING SPRAY ADV IS IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING. GALES REMAIN UP FOR THE BAYS WITH STORM FORCE WINDS OVER
THE OUTER WATERS.

LONG TERM...
THU NIGHT - SAT...GALE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
LARGE...BATTERING WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO STRIKE THE COASTLINE
THROUGH THE UPCOMING 5 PM HIGH TIDE. LONG PERIOD SWELLS ARE NOW UP
TO 30 FEET AT JEFFREYS LEDGE. EXPECT LOCALLY SIGNIFICANT SPLASH-
OVER AND EROSION NEAR THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
WARNINGS REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THIS POTENTIAL HIGH IMPACT EVENT.

STORM SURGE VALUES WILL REMAIN JUST BELOW THREE FEET THIS
AFTERNOON...AND IN COMBINATION WITH A 9.1 FOOT ASTRONOMICAL TIDE
IN PORTLAND...MINOR FLOODING WILL LIKELY OCCUR AS THE STORM TIDE
REACHES 12 FEET. WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON
JUST PRIOR TO HIGH TIDE...WHICH MAY REDUCE THE STORM SURGE.

USED THE NORTH ATLANTIC REGIONAL TEAM WAVE RUNUP MATRICES TO
FORECAST AND WARN FOR THE TWO HIGH TIDES TODAY. THE OUTPUT SHOWS
WAVE ACTION WILL ALLOW FOR LOCALLY SIGNIFICANT EROSION AS WELL AS
OVERWASH AT JENNIS...CAMP ELLIS BEACH...FERRY BEACH...FORTUNES
ROCKS BEACH...WITH EROSION OCCURRING AT POPHAM BEACH. WILL
INCLUDE THIS INFORMATION IN THE WARNINGS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MEZ007>009-
     012>014-018>028.
NH...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NHZ004-006-
     008>010-012>015.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     NHZ001>003-005-007-011.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ151-153.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ150>154.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KCAR 272307
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
607 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN WHILE TRACKING NORTHEAST
TOWARD WESTERN NOVA SCOTIA TONIGHT AND ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA ON
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. ANOTHER LOW WILL CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
540 PM UPDATE: FOR NOW...JUST FCST HRLY TEMPS WERE UPDATED INTO
THE OVRNGT WITH NO CHGS TO CURRENT WNTR WX HDLN STRUCTURE ATTM.
WITH LIITLE IN THE WAY OF LOW VSBYS OVR THE CURRENT BLZRD WRNG...
WE WILL WAIT TIL LATER THIS EVE TO SEE IF WIND SUBSIDES BLO HI
WIND WRNG GUST CRITERIA BEFORE DECIDING TO TRANSITION TO A SN/BLSN
ADV.

ORGNL DISC: THE LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH HAS BEEN BRINGING
BANDS OF HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND
OCCLUDE AS IT SLOWLY MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE
TONIGHT. SNOW OF VARYING INTENSITY WILL CONTINUE TO OCCUR ACROSS
THE AREA TONIGHT ALTHOUGH IN GENERAL THE INTENSITY WILL SLOWLY
DECREASE AS THE STORM WEAKENS. THE SNOW IS DRY AND POWDERY AND
CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING WILL CONTINUE, EVEN DURING
PERIODS WHEN THE SNOW LETS UP. A BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS UP FOR
DOWNEAST AREAS AND A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAIN UP ACROSS THE
NORTH. TOTAL AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM CLOSE TO 2 FEET ACROSS SOME
DOWNEAST AREAS TO JUST A FEW INCHES IN FAR NORTHWESTERN AROOSTOOK
COUNTY. A FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS UP FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
SPLASHOVER DOWNEAST DURING HIGH TIDE AT 5 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CLEARING SKIES ARRIVE WEDNESDAY EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS.
WINDS WILL DIE OFF LATER AND STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD
OCCUR WITH THE FRESH SNOWPACK. HAVE GONE BELOW GUIDANCE WITH
READINGS AS LOW AS FOURTEEN BELOW IN THE ALLAGASH. EVEN THE BANGOR
AREA SHOULD SEE READINGS IN THE MINUS FIVE TO MINUS TEN RANGE. TRANSIENT
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THURSDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS AND HIGHS IN THE
LOW TO MID 20S AS THE STEEP EARLY MORNING INVERSION ERODES. HIGH
CLOUDS INCREASE LATER IN THE DAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW. HIGH CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...SO TEMPERATURES WILL BE
STEADY OR RISING AFTER AN INITIAL DROP OFF IN THE EVENING.

SNOW WILL BREAK OUT LATE IN THE NIGHT AS A NORTHERN STREAM
CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND INTO
QUEBEC. THIS SYSTEM WILL NOT HAVE A LOT OF MOISTURE INITIALLY BUT
AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE COAST...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL DEEPEN
AND SHARPEN WITH CYCLOGENESIS OCCURRING SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY
OF CAPE COD. AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL EXTEND NORTHWARD INTO MAINE
AND SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE STATE ON FRIDAY. ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL
START FEEDING INTO THE DYNAMICALLY EVOLVING LOW DURING FRIDAY AND
THE MOISTURE WILL STREAM NORTHWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THE
UPPER LOW WILL DEVELOP A NEGATIVE TILT AND BECOME A CUT-OFF
DURING FRIDAY.  A STRONG JET IS EXPECTED ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL HELP ENSURE A CUT-OFF DEVELOPS. THE BIG
QUESTION WILL BE THE EXACT POSITION WHERE THE CUT-OFF DEVELOPS.
THIS WILL DETERMINE WHICH PART OF THE STATE RECEIVES THE MOST SNOW
THROUGH THE EVENT AND WHERE ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS ARE EVENTUALLY
LAID OUT. IF THE UPPER LEVEL CUT OFF FORMS IN SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...THEN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL
RECEIVE THE MOST SNOWFALL. IF THE CUT-OFF DEVELOPS IN THE GULF OF
MAINE...THEN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL RECEIVE
THE MOST SNOW. AS THIS TIME...HAVE TAKEN A CONSENSUS BLEND
APPROACH TO THE POSITION OF THE LOW...ITS ASSOCIATED INVERTED
TROUGH AND THE QPF. THIS RESULTED IN A SWATH OF FOUR TO SIX INCHES
FROM FORT KENT SOUTH TO PENOBSCOT BAY WITH LOWER AMOUNTS ALONG THE
EASTERN BORDER DURING FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH WARMER FOR
THIS EVENT. FRIDAY`S HIGHS WILL REACH THE LOWER 30S FOR MOST OF
THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL EXIT ACROSS THE MARITIMES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY WRAPPING SNOW BACK ACROSS THE REGION...WITH DECREASING
SNOW LATER SATURDAY. ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...THOUGH THE AMOUNT OF SNOW AND
LOCATION OF BEST ACCUMULATIONS ARE STILL UNCERTAIN. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. ANOTHER LOW WILL
APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING SNOW
CHANCES. THE TRACK OF THE LOW MONDAY IS STILL UNCERTAIN...WHETHER
ACROSS MAINE OR THE GULF OF MAINE. PRECIPITATION TYPES AND
AMOUNTS MONDAY WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF THE
LOW. THE LOW WILL THEN EXIT ACROSS THE MARITIMES TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT BELOW NORMAL LEVELS SATURDAY/SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW.
BELOW NORMAL LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW CAN BE
EXPECTED TONIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR WEDNESDAY
MORNING THEN VFR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE STORM MOVES AWAY AND
SOME CLEARING APPROACHES.

SHORT TERM: VFR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. IFR WILL DEVELOP
THURSDAY NIGHT DUE TO LOW CLOUDS. EXPECT IFR ON FRIDAY DUE TO SNOW
AND LOW CLOUDS. ACCUMULATING SNOW IS EXPECTED. IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY...WITH IMPROVING
CONDITIONS LATER SATURDAY. GENERALLY EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. CONDITIONS COULD THEN LOWER TO
MVFR/IFR LEVELS SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: 540 PM UPDATE...WITH ONLY LGT ICG INDICATED OVR OUR
OUTER MZS FOR TNGT AND WED...WE OPTD TO CANX THE FZSPY ADV OVR
THIS PTN OF OUR WATERS. NO OTHER CHGS TO REMAINING HDLNS ATTM.

ORGNL DISC...A STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT TONIGHT FOR WINDS
GUSTING UP TO 60 KTS AS POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE VERY SLOWLY WEAKENS
AND MOVES NORTHEAST. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO A GALE WEDNESDAY
MORNING THEN AN SCA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY
REMAINS UP TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR MODERATE
FREEZING SPRAY.

SHORT TERM: AN SCA WILL END WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT SCA WILL BE
FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE. HIGH TIDE
OCCURS AT 5 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MEZ001>006-
     010-011-031-032.
     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MEZ015>017-029-
     030.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MEZ029-030.
MARINE...STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ050>052.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...MCW
LONG TERM...NORCROSS
AVIATION...VJN/MCW
MARINE...VJN/MCW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...VJN



000
FXUS61 KCAR 272307
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
607 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN WHILE TRACKING NORTHEAST
TOWARD WESTERN NOVA SCOTIA TONIGHT AND ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA ON
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. ANOTHER LOW WILL CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
540 PM UPDATE: FOR NOW...JUST FCST HRLY TEMPS WERE UPDATED INTO
THE OVRNGT WITH NO CHGS TO CURRENT WNTR WX HDLN STRUCTURE ATTM.
WITH LIITLE IN THE WAY OF LOW VSBYS OVR THE CURRENT BLZRD WRNG...
WE WILL WAIT TIL LATER THIS EVE TO SEE IF WIND SUBSIDES BLO HI
WIND WRNG GUST CRITERIA BEFORE DECIDING TO TRANSITION TO A SN/BLSN
ADV.

ORGNL DISC: THE LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH HAS BEEN BRINGING
BANDS OF HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND
OCCLUDE AS IT SLOWLY MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE
TONIGHT. SNOW OF VARYING INTENSITY WILL CONTINUE TO OCCUR ACROSS
THE AREA TONIGHT ALTHOUGH IN GENERAL THE INTENSITY WILL SLOWLY
DECREASE AS THE STORM WEAKENS. THE SNOW IS DRY AND POWDERY AND
CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING WILL CONTINUE, EVEN DURING
PERIODS WHEN THE SNOW LETS UP. A BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS UP FOR
DOWNEAST AREAS AND A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAIN UP ACROSS THE
NORTH. TOTAL AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM CLOSE TO 2 FEET ACROSS SOME
DOWNEAST AREAS TO JUST A FEW INCHES IN FAR NORTHWESTERN AROOSTOOK
COUNTY. A FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS UP FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
SPLASHOVER DOWNEAST DURING HIGH TIDE AT 5 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CLEARING SKIES ARRIVE WEDNESDAY EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS.
WINDS WILL DIE OFF LATER AND STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD
OCCUR WITH THE FRESH SNOWPACK. HAVE GONE BELOW GUIDANCE WITH
READINGS AS LOW AS FOURTEEN BELOW IN THE ALLAGASH. EVEN THE BANGOR
AREA SHOULD SEE READINGS IN THE MINUS FIVE TO MINUS TEN RANGE. TRANSIENT
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THURSDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS AND HIGHS IN THE
LOW TO MID 20S AS THE STEEP EARLY MORNING INVERSION ERODES. HIGH
CLOUDS INCREASE LATER IN THE DAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW. HIGH CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...SO TEMPERATURES WILL BE
STEADY OR RISING AFTER AN INITIAL DROP OFF IN THE EVENING.

SNOW WILL BREAK OUT LATE IN THE NIGHT AS A NORTHERN STREAM
CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND INTO
QUEBEC. THIS SYSTEM WILL NOT HAVE A LOT OF MOISTURE INITIALLY BUT
AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE COAST...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL DEEPEN
AND SHARPEN WITH CYCLOGENESIS OCCURRING SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY
OF CAPE COD. AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL EXTEND NORTHWARD INTO MAINE
AND SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE STATE ON FRIDAY. ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL
START FEEDING INTO THE DYNAMICALLY EVOLVING LOW DURING FRIDAY AND
THE MOISTURE WILL STREAM NORTHWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THE
UPPER LOW WILL DEVELOP A NEGATIVE TILT AND BECOME A CUT-OFF
DURING FRIDAY.  A STRONG JET IS EXPECTED ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL HELP ENSURE A CUT-OFF DEVELOPS. THE BIG
QUESTION WILL BE THE EXACT POSITION WHERE THE CUT-OFF DEVELOPS.
THIS WILL DETERMINE WHICH PART OF THE STATE RECEIVES THE MOST SNOW
THROUGH THE EVENT AND WHERE ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS ARE EVENTUALLY
LAID OUT. IF THE UPPER LEVEL CUT OFF FORMS IN SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...THEN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL
RECEIVE THE MOST SNOWFALL. IF THE CUT-OFF DEVELOPS IN THE GULF OF
MAINE...THEN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL RECEIVE
THE MOST SNOW. AS THIS TIME...HAVE TAKEN A CONSENSUS BLEND
APPROACH TO THE POSITION OF THE LOW...ITS ASSOCIATED INVERTED
TROUGH AND THE QPF. THIS RESULTED IN A SWATH OF FOUR TO SIX INCHES
FROM FORT KENT SOUTH TO PENOBSCOT BAY WITH LOWER AMOUNTS ALONG THE
EASTERN BORDER DURING FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH WARMER FOR
THIS EVENT. FRIDAY`S HIGHS WILL REACH THE LOWER 30S FOR MOST OF
THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL EXIT ACROSS THE MARITIMES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY WRAPPING SNOW BACK ACROSS THE REGION...WITH DECREASING
SNOW LATER SATURDAY. ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...THOUGH THE AMOUNT OF SNOW AND
LOCATION OF BEST ACCUMULATIONS ARE STILL UNCERTAIN. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. ANOTHER LOW WILL
APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING SNOW
CHANCES. THE TRACK OF THE LOW MONDAY IS STILL UNCERTAIN...WHETHER
ACROSS MAINE OR THE GULF OF MAINE. PRECIPITATION TYPES AND
AMOUNTS MONDAY WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF THE
LOW. THE LOW WILL THEN EXIT ACROSS THE MARITIMES TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT BELOW NORMAL LEVELS SATURDAY/SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW.
BELOW NORMAL LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW CAN BE
EXPECTED TONIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR WEDNESDAY
MORNING THEN VFR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE STORM MOVES AWAY AND
SOME CLEARING APPROACHES.

SHORT TERM: VFR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. IFR WILL DEVELOP
THURSDAY NIGHT DUE TO LOW CLOUDS. EXPECT IFR ON FRIDAY DUE TO SNOW
AND LOW CLOUDS. ACCUMULATING SNOW IS EXPECTED. IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY...WITH IMPROVING
CONDITIONS LATER SATURDAY. GENERALLY EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. CONDITIONS COULD THEN LOWER TO
MVFR/IFR LEVELS SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: 540 PM UPDATE...WITH ONLY LGT ICG INDICATED OVR OUR
OUTER MZS FOR TNGT AND WED...WE OPTD TO CANX THE FZSPY ADV OVR
THIS PTN OF OUR WATERS. NO OTHER CHGS TO REMAINING HDLNS ATTM.

ORGNL DISC...A STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT TONIGHT FOR WINDS
GUSTING UP TO 60 KTS AS POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE VERY SLOWLY WEAKENS
AND MOVES NORTHEAST. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO A GALE WEDNESDAY
MORNING THEN AN SCA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY
REMAINS UP TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR MODERATE
FREEZING SPRAY.

SHORT TERM: AN SCA WILL END WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT SCA WILL BE
FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE. HIGH TIDE
OCCURS AT 5 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MEZ001>006-
     010-011-031-032.
     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MEZ015>017-029-
     030.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MEZ029-030.
MARINE...STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ050>052.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...MCW
LONG TERM...NORCROSS
AVIATION...VJN/MCW
MARINE...VJN/MCW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...VJN




000
FXUS61 KCAR 272046
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
346 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN WHILE TRACKING NORTHEAST
TOWARD WESTERN NOVA SCOTIA TONIGHT AND ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA ON
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. ANOTHER LOW WILL CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH HAS BEEN BRINGING BANDS OF
HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND OCCLUDE AS
IT SLOWLY MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE TONIGHT. SNOW
OF VARYING INTENSITY WILL CONTINUE TO OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT ALTHOUGH IN GENERAL THE INTENSITY WILL SLOWLY DECREASE AS
THE STORM WEAKENS. THE SNOW IS DRY AND POWDERY AND CONSIDERABLE
BLOWING AND DRIFTING WILL CONTINUE, EVEN DURING PERIODS WHEN THE
SNOW LETS UP. A BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS UP FOR DOWNEAST AREAS AND
A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAIN UP ACROSS THE NORTH. TOTAL AMOUNTS
WILL RANGE FROM CLOSE TO 2 FEET ACROSS SOME DOWNEAST AREAS TO
JUST A FEW INCHES IN FAR NORTHWESTERN AROOSTOOK COUNTY. A FLOOD
ADVISORY REMAINS UP FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SPLASHOVER
DOWNEAST DURING HIGH TIDE AT 5 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING.
&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CLEARING SKIES ARRIVE WEDNESDAY EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS.
WINDS WILL DIE OFF LATER AND STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD
OCCUR WITH THE FRESH SNOWPACK. HAVE GONE BELOW GUIDANCE WITH
READINGS AS LOW AS FOURTEEN BELOW IN THE ALLAGASH. EVEN THE BANGOR
AREA SHOULD SEE READINGS IN THE MINUS FIVE TO MINUS TEN RANGE. TRANSIENT
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THURSDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS AND HIGHS IN THE
LOW TO MID 20S AS THE STEEP EARLY MORNING INVERSION ERODES. HIGH
CLOUDS INCREASE LATER IN THE DAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW. HIGH CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...SO TEMPERATURES WILL BE
STEADY OR RISING AFTER AN INITIAL DROP OFF IN THE EVENING.

SNOW WILL BREAK OUT LATE IN THE NIGHT AS A NORTHERN STREAM
CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND INTO
QUEBEC. THIS SYSTEM WILL NOT HAVE A LOT OF MOISTURE INITIALLY BUT
AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE COAST...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL DEEPEN
AND SHARPEN WITH CYCLOGENESIS OCCURRING SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY
OF CAPE COD. AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL EXTEND NORTHWARD INTO MAINE
AND SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE STATE ON FRIDAY. ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL
START FEEDING INTO THE DYNAMICALLY EVOLVING LOW DURING FRIDAY AND
THE MOISTURE WILL STREAM NORTHWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THE
UPPER LOW WILL DEVELOP A NEGATIVE TILT AND BECOME A CUT-OFF
DURING FRIDAY.  A STRONG JET IS EXPECTED ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL HELP ENSURE A CUT-OFF DEVELOPS. THE BIG
QUESTION WILL BE THE EXACT POSITION WHERE THE CUT-OFF DEVELOPS.
THIS WILL DETERMINE WHICH PART OF THE STATE RECEIVES THE MOST SNOW
THROUGH THE EVENT AND WHERE ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS ARE EVENTUALLY
LAID OUT. IF THE UPPER LEVEL CUT OFF FORMS IN SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...THEN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL
RECEIVE THE MOST SNOWFALL. IF THE CUT-OFF DEVELOPS IN THE GULF OF
MAINE...THEN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL RECEIVE
THE MOST SNOW. AS THIS TIME...HAVE TAKEN A CONSENSUS BLEND
APPROACH TO THE POSITION OF THE LOW...ITS ASSOCIATED INVERTED
TROUGH AND THE QPF. THIS RESULTED IN A SWATH OF FOUR TO SIX INCHES
FROM FORT KENT SOUTH TO PENOBSCOT BAY WITH LOWER AMOUNTS ALONG THE
EASTERN BORDER DURING FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH WARMER FOR
THIS EVENT. FRIDAY`S HIGHS WILL REACH THE LOWER 30S FOR MOST OF
THE FORECAST AREA.
&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL EXIT ACROSS THE MARITIMES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY WRAPPING SNOW BACK ACROSS THE REGION...WITH DECREASING
SNOW LATER SATURDAY. ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...THOUGH THE AMOUNT OF SNOW AND
LOCATION OF BEST ACCUMULATIONS ARE STILL UNCERTAIN. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. ANOTHER LOW WILL
APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING SNOW
CHANCES. THE TRACK OF THE LOW MONDAY IS STILL UNCERTAIN...WHETHER
ACROSS MAINE OR THE GULF OF MAINE. PRECIPITATION TYPES AND
AMOUNTS MONDAY WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF THE
LOW. THE LOW WILL THEN EXIT ACROSS THE MARITIMES TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT BELOW NORMAL LEVELS SATURDAY/SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW.
BELOW NORMAL LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY.
&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW CAN BE
EXPECTED TONIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR WEDNESDAY
MORNING THEN VFR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE STORM MOVES AWAY AND
SOME CLEARING APPROACHES.

SHORT TERM: VFR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. IFR WILL DEVELOP
THURSDAY NIGHT DUE TO LOW CLOUDS. EXPECT IFR ON FRIDAY DUE TO SNOW
AND LOW CLOUDS. ACCUMULATING SNOW IS EXPECTED. IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY...WITH IMPROVING
CONDITIONS LATER SATURDAY. GENERALLY EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. CONDITIONS COULD THEN LOWER TO
MVFR/IFR LEVELS SUNDAY NIGHT.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT TONIGHT FOR WINDS
GUSTING UP TO 60 KTS AS POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE VERY SLOWLY WEAKENS
AND MOVES NORTHEAST. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO A GALE WEDNESDAY
MORNING THEN AN SCA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A FREEZING SPRAY
ADVISORY REMAINS UP TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY.

SHORT TERM: AN SCA WILL END WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT SCA WILL BE
FRIDAY MORNING.
&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE. HIGH TIDE
OCCURS AT 5 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MEZ001>006-
     010-011-031-032.
     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MEZ015>017-029-
     030.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MEZ029-030.
MARINE...STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ050>052.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ050>052.
&&
$$

NEAR TERM...BLOOMER
SHORT TERM...MCW
LONG TERM...NORCROSS
AVIATION...BLOOMER/MCW
MARINE...BLOOMER/MCW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BLOOMER



000
FXUS61 KCAR 272046
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
346 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN WHILE TRACKING NORTHEAST
TOWARD WESTERN NOVA SCOTIA TONIGHT AND ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA ON
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. ANOTHER LOW WILL CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH HAS BEEN BRINGING BANDS OF
HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND OCCLUDE AS
IT SLOWLY MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE TONIGHT. SNOW
OF VARYING INTENSITY WILL CONTINUE TO OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT ALTHOUGH IN GENERAL THE INTENSITY WILL SLOWLY DECREASE AS
THE STORM WEAKENS. THE SNOW IS DRY AND POWDERY AND CONSIDERABLE
BLOWING AND DRIFTING WILL CONTINUE, EVEN DURING PERIODS WHEN THE
SNOW LETS UP. A BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS UP FOR DOWNEAST AREAS AND
A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAIN UP ACROSS THE NORTH. TOTAL AMOUNTS
WILL RANGE FROM CLOSE TO 2 FEET ACROSS SOME DOWNEAST AREAS TO
JUST A FEW INCHES IN FAR NORTHWESTERN AROOSTOOK COUNTY. A FLOOD
ADVISORY REMAINS UP FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SPLASHOVER
DOWNEAST DURING HIGH TIDE AT 5 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING.
&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CLEARING SKIES ARRIVE WEDNESDAY EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS.
WINDS WILL DIE OFF LATER AND STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD
OCCUR WITH THE FRESH SNOWPACK. HAVE GONE BELOW GUIDANCE WITH
READINGS AS LOW AS FOURTEEN BELOW IN THE ALLAGASH. EVEN THE BANGOR
AREA SHOULD SEE READINGS IN THE MINUS FIVE TO MINUS TEN RANGE. TRANSIENT
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THURSDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS AND HIGHS IN THE
LOW TO MID 20S AS THE STEEP EARLY MORNING INVERSION ERODES. HIGH
CLOUDS INCREASE LATER IN THE DAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW. HIGH CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...SO TEMPERATURES WILL BE
STEADY OR RISING AFTER AN INITIAL DROP OFF IN THE EVENING.

SNOW WILL BREAK OUT LATE IN THE NIGHT AS A NORTHERN STREAM
CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND INTO
QUEBEC. THIS SYSTEM WILL NOT HAVE A LOT OF MOISTURE INITIALLY BUT
AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE COAST...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL DEEPEN
AND SHARPEN WITH CYCLOGENESIS OCCURRING SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY
OF CAPE COD. AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL EXTEND NORTHWARD INTO MAINE
AND SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE STATE ON FRIDAY. ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL
START FEEDING INTO THE DYNAMICALLY EVOLVING LOW DURING FRIDAY AND
THE MOISTURE WILL STREAM NORTHWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THE
UPPER LOW WILL DEVELOP A NEGATIVE TILT AND BECOME A CUT-OFF
DURING FRIDAY.  A STRONG JET IS EXPECTED ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL HELP ENSURE A CUT-OFF DEVELOPS. THE BIG
QUESTION WILL BE THE EXACT POSITION WHERE THE CUT-OFF DEVELOPS.
THIS WILL DETERMINE WHICH PART OF THE STATE RECEIVES THE MOST SNOW
THROUGH THE EVENT AND WHERE ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS ARE EVENTUALLY
LAID OUT. IF THE UPPER LEVEL CUT OFF FORMS IN SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...THEN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL
RECEIVE THE MOST SNOWFALL. IF THE CUT-OFF DEVELOPS IN THE GULF OF
MAINE...THEN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL RECEIVE
THE MOST SNOW. AS THIS TIME...HAVE TAKEN A CONSENSUS BLEND
APPROACH TO THE POSITION OF THE LOW...ITS ASSOCIATED INVERTED
TROUGH AND THE QPF. THIS RESULTED IN A SWATH OF FOUR TO SIX INCHES
FROM FORT KENT SOUTH TO PENOBSCOT BAY WITH LOWER AMOUNTS ALONG THE
EASTERN BORDER DURING FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH WARMER FOR
THIS EVENT. FRIDAY`S HIGHS WILL REACH THE LOWER 30S FOR MOST OF
THE FORECAST AREA.
&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL EXIT ACROSS THE MARITIMES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY WRAPPING SNOW BACK ACROSS THE REGION...WITH DECREASING
SNOW LATER SATURDAY. ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...THOUGH THE AMOUNT OF SNOW AND
LOCATION OF BEST ACCUMULATIONS ARE STILL UNCERTAIN. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. ANOTHER LOW WILL
APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING SNOW
CHANCES. THE TRACK OF THE LOW MONDAY IS STILL UNCERTAIN...WHETHER
ACROSS MAINE OR THE GULF OF MAINE. PRECIPITATION TYPES AND
AMOUNTS MONDAY WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF THE
LOW. THE LOW WILL THEN EXIT ACROSS THE MARITIMES TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT BELOW NORMAL LEVELS SATURDAY/SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW.
BELOW NORMAL LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY.
&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW CAN BE
EXPECTED TONIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR WEDNESDAY
MORNING THEN VFR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE STORM MOVES AWAY AND
SOME CLEARING APPROACHES.

SHORT TERM: VFR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. IFR WILL DEVELOP
THURSDAY NIGHT DUE TO LOW CLOUDS. EXPECT IFR ON FRIDAY DUE TO SNOW
AND LOW CLOUDS. ACCUMULATING SNOW IS EXPECTED. IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY...WITH IMPROVING
CONDITIONS LATER SATURDAY. GENERALLY EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. CONDITIONS COULD THEN LOWER TO
MVFR/IFR LEVELS SUNDAY NIGHT.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT TONIGHT FOR WINDS
GUSTING UP TO 60 KTS AS POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE VERY SLOWLY WEAKENS
AND MOVES NORTHEAST. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO A GALE WEDNESDAY
MORNING THEN AN SCA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A FREEZING SPRAY
ADVISORY REMAINS UP TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY.

SHORT TERM: AN SCA WILL END WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT SCA WILL BE
FRIDAY MORNING.
&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE. HIGH TIDE
OCCURS AT 5 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MEZ001>006-
     010-011-031-032.
     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MEZ015>017-029-
     030.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MEZ029-030.
MARINE...STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ050>052.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ050>052.
&&
$$

NEAR TERM...BLOOMER
SHORT TERM...MCW
LONG TERM...NORCROSS
AVIATION...BLOOMER/MCW
MARINE...BLOOMER/MCW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BLOOMER



000
FXUS61 KCAR 272046
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
346 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN WHILE TRACKING NORTHEAST
TOWARD WESTERN NOVA SCOTIA TONIGHT AND ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA ON
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. ANOTHER LOW WILL CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH HAS BEEN BRINGING BANDS OF
HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND OCCLUDE AS
IT SLOWLY MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE TONIGHT. SNOW
OF VARYING INTENSITY WILL CONTINUE TO OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT ALTHOUGH IN GENERAL THE INTENSITY WILL SLOWLY DECREASE AS
THE STORM WEAKENS. THE SNOW IS DRY AND POWDERY AND CONSIDERABLE
BLOWING AND DRIFTING WILL CONTINUE, EVEN DURING PERIODS WHEN THE
SNOW LETS UP. A BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS UP FOR DOWNEAST AREAS AND
A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAIN UP ACROSS THE NORTH. TOTAL AMOUNTS
WILL RANGE FROM CLOSE TO 2 FEET ACROSS SOME DOWNEAST AREAS TO
JUST A FEW INCHES IN FAR NORTHWESTERN AROOSTOOK COUNTY. A FLOOD
ADVISORY REMAINS UP FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SPLASHOVER
DOWNEAST DURING HIGH TIDE AT 5 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING.
&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CLEARING SKIES ARRIVE WEDNESDAY EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS.
WINDS WILL DIE OFF LATER AND STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD
OCCUR WITH THE FRESH SNOWPACK. HAVE GONE BELOW GUIDANCE WITH
READINGS AS LOW AS FOURTEEN BELOW IN THE ALLAGASH. EVEN THE BANGOR
AREA SHOULD SEE READINGS IN THE MINUS FIVE TO MINUS TEN RANGE. TRANSIENT
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THURSDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS AND HIGHS IN THE
LOW TO MID 20S AS THE STEEP EARLY MORNING INVERSION ERODES. HIGH
CLOUDS INCREASE LATER IN THE DAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW. HIGH CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...SO TEMPERATURES WILL BE
STEADY OR RISING AFTER AN INITIAL DROP OFF IN THE EVENING.

SNOW WILL BREAK OUT LATE IN THE NIGHT AS A NORTHERN STREAM
CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND INTO
QUEBEC. THIS SYSTEM WILL NOT HAVE A LOT OF MOISTURE INITIALLY BUT
AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE COAST...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL DEEPEN
AND SHARPEN WITH CYCLOGENESIS OCCURRING SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY
OF CAPE COD. AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL EXTEND NORTHWARD INTO MAINE
AND SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE STATE ON FRIDAY. ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL
START FEEDING INTO THE DYNAMICALLY EVOLVING LOW DURING FRIDAY AND
THE MOISTURE WILL STREAM NORTHWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THE
UPPER LOW WILL DEVELOP A NEGATIVE TILT AND BECOME A CUT-OFF
DURING FRIDAY.  A STRONG JET IS EXPECTED ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL HELP ENSURE A CUT-OFF DEVELOPS. THE BIG
QUESTION WILL BE THE EXACT POSITION WHERE THE CUT-OFF DEVELOPS.
THIS WILL DETERMINE WHICH PART OF THE STATE RECEIVES THE MOST SNOW
THROUGH THE EVENT AND WHERE ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS ARE EVENTUALLY
LAID OUT. IF THE UPPER LEVEL CUT OFF FORMS IN SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...THEN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL
RECEIVE THE MOST SNOWFALL. IF THE CUT-OFF DEVELOPS IN THE GULF OF
MAINE...THEN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL RECEIVE
THE MOST SNOW. AS THIS TIME...HAVE TAKEN A CONSENSUS BLEND
APPROACH TO THE POSITION OF THE LOW...ITS ASSOCIATED INVERTED
TROUGH AND THE QPF. THIS RESULTED IN A SWATH OF FOUR TO SIX INCHES
FROM FORT KENT SOUTH TO PENOBSCOT BAY WITH LOWER AMOUNTS ALONG THE
EASTERN BORDER DURING FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH WARMER FOR
THIS EVENT. FRIDAY`S HIGHS WILL REACH THE LOWER 30S FOR MOST OF
THE FORECAST AREA.
&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL EXIT ACROSS THE MARITIMES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY WRAPPING SNOW BACK ACROSS THE REGION...WITH DECREASING
SNOW LATER SATURDAY. ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...THOUGH THE AMOUNT OF SNOW AND
LOCATION OF BEST ACCUMULATIONS ARE STILL UNCERTAIN. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. ANOTHER LOW WILL
APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING SNOW
CHANCES. THE TRACK OF THE LOW MONDAY IS STILL UNCERTAIN...WHETHER
ACROSS MAINE OR THE GULF OF MAINE. PRECIPITATION TYPES AND
AMOUNTS MONDAY WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF THE
LOW. THE LOW WILL THEN EXIT ACROSS THE MARITIMES TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT BELOW NORMAL LEVELS SATURDAY/SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW.
BELOW NORMAL LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY.
&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW CAN BE
EXPECTED TONIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR WEDNESDAY
MORNING THEN VFR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE STORM MOVES AWAY AND
SOME CLEARING APPROACHES.

SHORT TERM: VFR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. IFR WILL DEVELOP
THURSDAY NIGHT DUE TO LOW CLOUDS. EXPECT IFR ON FRIDAY DUE TO SNOW
AND LOW CLOUDS. ACCUMULATING SNOW IS EXPECTED. IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY...WITH IMPROVING
CONDITIONS LATER SATURDAY. GENERALLY EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. CONDITIONS COULD THEN LOWER TO
MVFR/IFR LEVELS SUNDAY NIGHT.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT TONIGHT FOR WINDS
GUSTING UP TO 60 KTS AS POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE VERY SLOWLY WEAKENS
AND MOVES NORTHEAST. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO A GALE WEDNESDAY
MORNING THEN AN SCA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A FREEZING SPRAY
ADVISORY REMAINS UP TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY.

SHORT TERM: AN SCA WILL END WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT SCA WILL BE
FRIDAY MORNING.
&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE. HIGH TIDE
OCCURS AT 5 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MEZ001>006-
     010-011-031-032.
     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MEZ015>017-029-
     030.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MEZ029-030.
MARINE...STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ050>052.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ050>052.
&&
$$

NEAR TERM...BLOOMER
SHORT TERM...MCW
LONG TERM...NORCROSS
AVIATION...BLOOMER/MCW
MARINE...BLOOMER/MCW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BLOOMER



000
FXUS61 KCAR 272046
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
346 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN WHILE TRACKING NORTHEAST
TOWARD WESTERN NOVA SCOTIA TONIGHT AND ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA ON
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. ANOTHER LOW WILL CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH HAS BEEN BRINGING BANDS OF
HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND OCCLUDE AS
IT SLOWLY MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE TONIGHT. SNOW
OF VARYING INTENSITY WILL CONTINUE TO OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT ALTHOUGH IN GENERAL THE INTENSITY WILL SLOWLY DECREASE AS
THE STORM WEAKENS. THE SNOW IS DRY AND POWDERY AND CONSIDERABLE
BLOWING AND DRIFTING WILL CONTINUE, EVEN DURING PERIODS WHEN THE
SNOW LETS UP. A BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS UP FOR DOWNEAST AREAS AND
A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAIN UP ACROSS THE NORTH. TOTAL AMOUNTS
WILL RANGE FROM CLOSE TO 2 FEET ACROSS SOME DOWNEAST AREAS TO
JUST A FEW INCHES IN FAR NORTHWESTERN AROOSTOOK COUNTY. A FLOOD
ADVISORY REMAINS UP FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SPLASHOVER
DOWNEAST DURING HIGH TIDE AT 5 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING.
&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CLEARING SKIES ARRIVE WEDNESDAY EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS.
WINDS WILL DIE OFF LATER AND STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD
OCCUR WITH THE FRESH SNOWPACK. HAVE GONE BELOW GUIDANCE WITH
READINGS AS LOW AS FOURTEEN BELOW IN THE ALLAGASH. EVEN THE BANGOR
AREA SHOULD SEE READINGS IN THE MINUS FIVE TO MINUS TEN RANGE. TRANSIENT
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THURSDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS AND HIGHS IN THE
LOW TO MID 20S AS THE STEEP EARLY MORNING INVERSION ERODES. HIGH
CLOUDS INCREASE LATER IN THE DAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW. HIGH CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...SO TEMPERATURES WILL BE
STEADY OR RISING AFTER AN INITIAL DROP OFF IN THE EVENING.

SNOW WILL BREAK OUT LATE IN THE NIGHT AS A NORTHERN STREAM
CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND INTO
QUEBEC. THIS SYSTEM WILL NOT HAVE A LOT OF MOISTURE INITIALLY BUT
AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE COAST...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL DEEPEN
AND SHARPEN WITH CYCLOGENESIS OCCURRING SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY
OF CAPE COD. AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL EXTEND NORTHWARD INTO MAINE
AND SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE STATE ON FRIDAY. ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL
START FEEDING INTO THE DYNAMICALLY EVOLVING LOW DURING FRIDAY AND
THE MOISTURE WILL STREAM NORTHWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THE
UPPER LOW WILL DEVELOP A NEGATIVE TILT AND BECOME A CUT-OFF
DURING FRIDAY.  A STRONG JET IS EXPECTED ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL HELP ENSURE A CUT-OFF DEVELOPS. THE BIG
QUESTION WILL BE THE EXACT POSITION WHERE THE CUT-OFF DEVELOPS.
THIS WILL DETERMINE WHICH PART OF THE STATE RECEIVES THE MOST SNOW
THROUGH THE EVENT AND WHERE ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS ARE EVENTUALLY
LAID OUT. IF THE UPPER LEVEL CUT OFF FORMS IN SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...THEN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL
RECEIVE THE MOST SNOWFALL. IF THE CUT-OFF DEVELOPS IN THE GULF OF
MAINE...THEN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL RECEIVE
THE MOST SNOW. AS THIS TIME...HAVE TAKEN A CONSENSUS BLEND
APPROACH TO THE POSITION OF THE LOW...ITS ASSOCIATED INVERTED
TROUGH AND THE QPF. THIS RESULTED IN A SWATH OF FOUR TO SIX INCHES
FROM FORT KENT SOUTH TO PENOBSCOT BAY WITH LOWER AMOUNTS ALONG THE
EASTERN BORDER DURING FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH WARMER FOR
THIS EVENT. FRIDAY`S HIGHS WILL REACH THE LOWER 30S FOR MOST OF
THE FORECAST AREA.
&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL EXIT ACROSS THE MARITIMES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY WRAPPING SNOW BACK ACROSS THE REGION...WITH DECREASING
SNOW LATER SATURDAY. ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...THOUGH THE AMOUNT OF SNOW AND
LOCATION OF BEST ACCUMULATIONS ARE STILL UNCERTAIN. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. ANOTHER LOW WILL
APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING SNOW
CHANCES. THE TRACK OF THE LOW MONDAY IS STILL UNCERTAIN...WHETHER
ACROSS MAINE OR THE GULF OF MAINE. PRECIPITATION TYPES AND
AMOUNTS MONDAY WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF THE
LOW. THE LOW WILL THEN EXIT ACROSS THE MARITIMES TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT BELOW NORMAL LEVELS SATURDAY/SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW.
BELOW NORMAL LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY.
&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW CAN BE
EXPECTED TONIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR WEDNESDAY
MORNING THEN VFR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE STORM MOVES AWAY AND
SOME CLEARING APPROACHES.

SHORT TERM: VFR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. IFR WILL DEVELOP
THURSDAY NIGHT DUE TO LOW CLOUDS. EXPECT IFR ON FRIDAY DUE TO SNOW
AND LOW CLOUDS. ACCUMULATING SNOW IS EXPECTED. IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY...WITH IMPROVING
CONDITIONS LATER SATURDAY. GENERALLY EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. CONDITIONS COULD THEN LOWER TO
MVFR/IFR LEVELS SUNDAY NIGHT.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT TONIGHT FOR WINDS
GUSTING UP TO 60 KTS AS POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE VERY SLOWLY WEAKENS
AND MOVES NORTHEAST. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO A GALE WEDNESDAY
MORNING THEN AN SCA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A FREEZING SPRAY
ADVISORY REMAINS UP TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY.

SHORT TERM: AN SCA WILL END WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT SCA WILL BE
FRIDAY MORNING.
&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE. HIGH TIDE
OCCURS AT 5 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MEZ001>006-
     010-011-031-032.
     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MEZ015>017-029-
     030.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MEZ029-030.
MARINE...STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ050>052.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ050>052.
&&
$$

NEAR TERM...BLOOMER
SHORT TERM...MCW
LONG TERM...NORCROSS
AVIATION...BLOOMER/MCW
MARINE...BLOOMER/MCW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BLOOMER



000
FXUS61 KGYX 272038
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
338 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN INTENSE NOREASTER WILL THE LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST THROUGH
THE GULF OF MAINE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN FOLLOW FOR
WEDNESDAY AND EARLY THURSDAY. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL LIKELY
BRING A GENERAL SNOWFALL TO THE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH
ANOTHER STORM HEADING TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY SHOW INTENSE DEFORMATION BANDS
CONTINUING TO ROTATE ONSHORE FROM THE GULF OF MAINE. STRONG N
WINDS ARE MOVING INTO THE CENTER OF THE STORM... WHICH IS LOCATED
OFFSHORE AND EAST OF CAPE COD... HELPING TO KEEP BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS GOING OVER COASTAL AREAS. IN ADDITION HEAVY SNOW IS
HELPING DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER OF VERY STRONG WINDS ALOFT.
THIS STORM IS VERY IMPRESSIVE AND HAS EYEWALL- LIKE FEATURES...
IN ADDITION THERE IS SUBSIDENCE TO THE WEST WITH DEW POINTS NEAR
ZERO DEGREES F.

HAVE DROPPED OUR WESTERN COUNTIES ALONG THE CT RIVER VALLEY DOWN
TO ADVISORY LEVELS FOR BLOWING SNOW AND SOME LIGHT ADDITIONAL
SNOWFALL. HOWEVER THEY HAVE GOTTEN ONLY 2-4" OR LESS IN SOME
CASES... WHEREAS SOME COASTAL LOCATIONS ARE LIKELY IN THE UPPER
20S FOR STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS. WINTER STORM WARNINGS AND BLIZZARD
WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION...
INCLUDING NORTHERN COUNTIES... WHERE THE SOUTHERN HALF HAS BEEN
GETTING MUCH MORE SNOW THAN NORTHERN SECTIONS.

OMEGA AND FRONTOGENESIS PARAMETERS REMAIN IMPRESSIVE BUT HAVE
ALREADY BEGUN TO WEAKEN AS THE SURFACE LOW BEGINS TO FILL.
EVENTUALLY THE BAND(S) WILL SHRIVEL UP TO JUST THE CORE OVER
SOUTHERN CARROLL COUNTY NH TO SOUTHERN FRANKLIN COUNTY ME AND
DISSIPATE FROM THERE TONIGHT. BLIZZARD AND HEAVY SNOW WARNINGS
WILL LIKELY BE DROPPED SOMETIME OVERNIGHT.

COLD AIR HAS NOT LEFT WESTERN AND NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY. WITH VERY LOW DEW POINTS IN PLACE ALREADY...
LOWS WILL BE NEAR ZERO F THERE AND CLOSER TO 10 TO 15 F AS YOU
GO WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
COLD AND DRY AIR WILL BE DRAWN IN FROM CANADA AS THE SYSTEM
DEPARTS TO OUR EAST TOMORROW. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH THE TEENS
NORTH TO LOWER 20S SOUTH. COLD HP AIRMASS SETTLES IN EVEN FURTHER
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. TEMPERATURES TUMBLE
INTO THE NEGATIVE DIGITS NORTH TO LOWER POSITIVE DIGITS SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION EARLY THURSDAY BEFORE
PULLING OUT TO OUR EAST ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW AN ELONGATED
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE TO ENTER THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT.
THERE HAS NOT BEEN MUCH RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY WITH THIS SYSTEM AS
EARLIER RUNS CUT THE LOW OFF FURTHER TO OUR SOUTH...BRINGING HEAVY
SNOW TO THE REGION. NEW EURO AND THE CANADIAN MODEL CONTINUE TO BE
THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS SYSTEM...CUTTING IT OFF TO OUR
SOUTH. GFS IS THE MOST PROGRESSIVE WITH THIS SYSTEM.

NEXT SYSTEM COMES OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO ON MONDAY. NOT QUITE
READY TO JUMP ON THE WARM SOLUTION WITH THIS STORM AS PLENTY OF
COLD AIR AND SNOWPACK WILL BE INITIALLY IN PLACE OVER NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.

VERY COLD AIR TO FOLLOW...ALONG WITH STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
DURING THE MIDWEEK PERIOD NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM...HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR ALL TERMINALS PRODUCING LIFR AND IFR
CONDITIONS. NORTH WINDS GUSTING TO 30 KTS OR BETTER ALONG THE
COAST WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT WITH GUSTS DROPPING OFF TOWARDS
12Z AND BACKING TO THE NW. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD MOVE IN W TO E BY
12Z.

LONG TERM...
FRI...MVFR IN SNOW WITH LCL IFR CONDS PSSBL.
      NW SFC WIND GUSTING TO 25 KT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...A FREEZING SPRAY ADV IS IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING. GALES REMAIN UP FOR THE BAYS WITH STORM FORCE WINDS OVER
THE OUTER WATERS.

LONG TERM...
THU NIGHT - SAT...GALE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
LARGE...BATTERING WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO STRIKE THE COASTLINE
THROUGH THE UPCOMING 5 PM HIGH TIDE. LONG PERIOD SWELLS ARE NOW UP
TO 30 FEET AT JEFFREYS LEDGE. EXPECT LOCALLY SIGNIFICANT SPLASH-
OVER AND EROSION NEAR THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
WARNINGS REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THIS POTENTIAL HIGH IMPACT EVENT.

STORM SURGE VALUES WILL REMAIN JUST BELOW THREE FEET THIS
AFTERNOON...AND IN COMBINATION WITH A 9.1 FOOT ASTRONOMICAL TIDE
IN PORTLAND...MINOR FLOODING WILL LIKELY OCCUR AS THE STORM TIDE
REACHES 12 FEET. WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON
JUST PRIOR TO HIGH TIDE...WHICH MAY REDUCE THE STORM SURGE.

USED THE NORTH ATLANTIC REGIONAL TEAM WAVE RUNUP MATRICES TO
FORECAST AND WARN FOR THE TWO HIGH TIDES TODAY. THE OUTPUT SHOWS
WAVE ACTION WILL ALLOW FOR LOCALLY SIGNIFICANT EROSION AS WELL AS
OVERWASH AT JENNIS...CAMP ELLIS BEACH...FERRY BEACH...FORTUNES
ROCKS BEACH...WITH EROSION OCCURRING AT POPHAM BEACH. WILL
INCLUDE THIS INFORMATION IN THE WARNINGS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MEZ007>009-
     012>014.
     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MEZ018>028.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     MEZ025>028.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MEZ023-
     024.
NH...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NHZ002>009-
     011-015.
     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NHZ010-012>014.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NHZ001.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NHZ014.
MARINE...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ150>154.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR ANZ151-153.
     STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$

HANES/CANNON



000
FXUS61 KGYX 272038
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
338 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN INTENSE NOREASTER WILL THE LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST THROUGH
THE GULF OF MAINE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN FOLLOW FOR
WEDNESDAY AND EARLY THURSDAY. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL LIKELY
BRING A GENERAL SNOWFALL TO THE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH
ANOTHER STORM HEADING TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY SHOW INTENSE DEFORMATION BANDS
CONTINUING TO ROTATE ONSHORE FROM THE GULF OF MAINE. STRONG N
WINDS ARE MOVING INTO THE CENTER OF THE STORM... WHICH IS LOCATED
OFFSHORE AND EAST OF CAPE COD... HELPING TO KEEP BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS GOING OVER COASTAL AREAS. IN ADDITION HEAVY SNOW IS
HELPING DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER OF VERY STRONG WINDS ALOFT.
THIS STORM IS VERY IMPRESSIVE AND HAS EYEWALL- LIKE FEATURES...
IN ADDITION THERE IS SUBSIDENCE TO THE WEST WITH DEW POINTS NEAR
ZERO DEGREES F.

HAVE DROPPED OUR WESTERN COUNTIES ALONG THE CT RIVER VALLEY DOWN
TO ADVISORY LEVELS FOR BLOWING SNOW AND SOME LIGHT ADDITIONAL
SNOWFALL. HOWEVER THEY HAVE GOTTEN ONLY 2-4" OR LESS IN SOME
CASES... WHEREAS SOME COASTAL LOCATIONS ARE LIKELY IN THE UPPER
20S FOR STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS. WINTER STORM WARNINGS AND BLIZZARD
WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION...
INCLUDING NORTHERN COUNTIES... WHERE THE SOUTHERN HALF HAS BEEN
GETTING MUCH MORE SNOW THAN NORTHERN SECTIONS.

OMEGA AND FRONTOGENESIS PARAMETERS REMAIN IMPRESSIVE BUT HAVE
ALREADY BEGUN TO WEAKEN AS THE SURFACE LOW BEGINS TO FILL.
EVENTUALLY THE BAND(S) WILL SHRIVEL UP TO JUST THE CORE OVER
SOUTHERN CARROLL COUNTY NH TO SOUTHERN FRANKLIN COUNTY ME AND
DISSIPATE FROM THERE TONIGHT. BLIZZARD AND HEAVY SNOW WARNINGS
WILL LIKELY BE DROPPED SOMETIME OVERNIGHT.

COLD AIR HAS NOT LEFT WESTERN AND NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY. WITH VERY LOW DEW POINTS IN PLACE ALREADY...
LOWS WILL BE NEAR ZERO F THERE AND CLOSER TO 10 TO 15 F AS YOU
GO WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
COLD AND DRY AIR WILL BE DRAWN IN FROM CANADA AS THE SYSTEM
DEPARTS TO OUR EAST TOMORROW. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH THE TEENS
NORTH TO LOWER 20S SOUTH. COLD HP AIRMASS SETTLES IN EVEN FURTHER
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. TEMPERATURES TUMBLE
INTO THE NEGATIVE DIGITS NORTH TO LOWER POSITIVE DIGITS SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION EARLY THURSDAY BEFORE
PULLING OUT TO OUR EAST ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW AN ELONGATED
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE TO ENTER THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT.
THERE HAS NOT BEEN MUCH RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY WITH THIS SYSTEM AS
EARLIER RUNS CUT THE LOW OFF FURTHER TO OUR SOUTH...BRINGING HEAVY
SNOW TO THE REGION. NEW EURO AND THE CANADIAN MODEL CONTINUE TO BE
THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS SYSTEM...CUTTING IT OFF TO OUR
SOUTH. GFS IS THE MOST PROGRESSIVE WITH THIS SYSTEM.

NEXT SYSTEM COMES OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO ON MONDAY. NOT QUITE
READY TO JUMP ON THE WARM SOLUTION WITH THIS STORM AS PLENTY OF
COLD AIR AND SNOWPACK WILL BE INITIALLY IN PLACE OVER NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.

VERY COLD AIR TO FOLLOW...ALONG WITH STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
DURING THE MIDWEEK PERIOD NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM...HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR ALL TERMINALS PRODUCING LIFR AND IFR
CONDITIONS. NORTH WINDS GUSTING TO 30 KTS OR BETTER ALONG THE
COAST WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT WITH GUSTS DROPPING OFF TOWARDS
12Z AND BACKING TO THE NW. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD MOVE IN W TO E BY
12Z.

LONG TERM...
FRI...MVFR IN SNOW WITH LCL IFR CONDS PSSBL.
      NW SFC WIND GUSTING TO 25 KT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...A FREEZING SPRAY ADV IS IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING. GALES REMAIN UP FOR THE BAYS WITH STORM FORCE WINDS OVER
THE OUTER WATERS.

LONG TERM...
THU NIGHT - SAT...GALE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
LARGE...BATTERING WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO STRIKE THE COASTLINE
THROUGH THE UPCOMING 5 PM HIGH TIDE. LONG PERIOD SWELLS ARE NOW UP
TO 30 FEET AT JEFFREYS LEDGE. EXPECT LOCALLY SIGNIFICANT SPLASH-
OVER AND EROSION NEAR THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
WARNINGS REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THIS POTENTIAL HIGH IMPACT EVENT.

STORM SURGE VALUES WILL REMAIN JUST BELOW THREE FEET THIS
AFTERNOON...AND IN COMBINATION WITH A 9.1 FOOT ASTRONOMICAL TIDE
IN PORTLAND...MINOR FLOODING WILL LIKELY OCCUR AS THE STORM TIDE
REACHES 12 FEET. WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON
JUST PRIOR TO HIGH TIDE...WHICH MAY REDUCE THE STORM SURGE.

USED THE NORTH ATLANTIC REGIONAL TEAM WAVE RUNUP MATRICES TO
FORECAST AND WARN FOR THE TWO HIGH TIDES TODAY. THE OUTPUT SHOWS
WAVE ACTION WILL ALLOW FOR LOCALLY SIGNIFICANT EROSION AS WELL AS
OVERWASH AT JENNIS...CAMP ELLIS BEACH...FERRY BEACH...FORTUNES
ROCKS BEACH...WITH EROSION OCCURRING AT POPHAM BEACH. WILL
INCLUDE THIS INFORMATION IN THE WARNINGS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MEZ007>009-
     012>014.
     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MEZ018>028.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     MEZ025>028.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MEZ023-
     024.
NH...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NHZ002>009-
     011-015.
     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NHZ010-012>014.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NHZ001.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NHZ014.
MARINE...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ150>154.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR ANZ151-153.
     STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$

HANES/CANNON




000
FXUS61 KGYX 271713
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1213 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD TO JUST SOUTH OF
NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS TODAY. THE LOW WILL LINGER AROUND THROUGH
WEDNESDAY BRINGING A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO OUR REGION. ANOTHER
STORM SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING A GENERAL SNOWFALL TO THE AREA ON
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
.UPDATE...
DEFORMATION BAND CONTINUES TO CHURN OUT INTENSE SNOWFALL ALONG
COASTAL NH AND MAINE. VERY INTENSE FRONTOGENESIS AROUND 700 MB
AND STRONG UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION IN THE SNOW GROWTH ZONE IS
HELPING TO CREATE HOURLY SNOWFALL RATES OF 3-5" PER HOUR THIS
MORNING. MEASURING THE SNOW IS PROBLEMATIC IN BLIZZARD CONDITIONS
AND HEAVY DRIFTING... HOWEVER SNOWFALL TOTALS HAVE TOPPED 20" IN
SOME PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NH AND SW MAINE ALREADY THIS MORNING.

MESOSCALE MODELS ARE CORRECT IN DEPICTING THIS STORM SLOWLY
ROTATING INLAND OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS BAND IS ALREADY
PIVOTING SLOWLY INLAND WITH THE PIVOT POINT IN EASTERN
MASSACHUSETTS. THIS FORMATION WILL CONTINUE TO DUMP HEAVY SNOW
OVER SECTIONS THAT HAVE ALREADY SEEN MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW...
ALTHOUGH IT SHOULD LIGHTEN UP AFTER THE NEXT 3 HOURS. THE BAND
SHOULD REACH A POINT WHERE IT IS CENTERED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING
FROM HARMONY...TO BETHEL... TO FRYEBURG ME... AND TOWARDS
FARMINGTON... RAYMOND... AND HAMPSTEAD NH. UNFORTUNATELY THIS BAND
MAINTAINS THROUGHOUT THE EVENING OVER THESE LOCATIONS... BEFORE
SLOWLY BREAKING APART TOWARDS MIDNIGHT. STILL... WE ARE CURRENTLY
RECEIVING THE HIGHEST RATES/AMOUNTS CURRENTLY... SO EVEN THOUGH
THE BAND WILL BE OVER THESE LOCATIONS PERHAPS LONGER... THEY
SHOULD RECEIVE SLIGHTLY LESS THAN AREAS RIGHT ON THE COAST.

HURRICANE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN HOISTED FOR THE OUTER WATERS. WE HAVE
BEEN RECEIVING REPORTS OF 55+ MPH WIND GUSTS IN SOUTHERN NH. THIS
SHOULD NOT BE HARD TO BELIEVE... DUE TO THE SNOWFALL RATES WE HAVE
BEEN SEEING... PRECIPITATION LOADING WILL CONTRIBUTE HEAVILY TO
MIXING THE VERY STRONG WINDS TO THE SURFACE. IN ADDITION WINDS IN
THE 60S AND 70S HAVE BEEN VERIFIED TO OUR SOUTH.

SHOULD GO WITHOUT SAYING...BUT TRAVEL IS ESSENTIALLY IMPOSSIBLE
FOR MUCH OF MAINE AND NH AT THIS POINT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRES OCCLUDES AND UPPER LOW DRIFTS ACROSS THE AREA THRU WED.
THIS WILL CONTINUE -SN FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD...THOUGH INTENSITY
WILL BE FAR LESS THAN THAT EXPERIENCED TODAY. AN ADDITIONAL COUPLE
OF INCHES OF ACCUMULATIONS IS POSSIBLE. TEMPS WILL BE ON THE COOL
SIDE WITH GUSTY WLY WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE LONG WAVE PATTERN
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES EXIST
WITH TIMING AND STRENGTH OF INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES LEADING TO
DECREASED CONFIDENCE IN SENSIBLE WEATHER. THE OVERALL THEME IS
WESTERN RIDGE AND EASTERN TROUGH FOR THE CONUS...WITH AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE FOR SYNOPTIC
SNOWS ROUGHLY EVERY TWO DAYS...WITH FRIDAY - FRIDAY NIGHT...SUNDAY
NIGHT-MONDAY...THE MOST LIKELY TIME FRAMES FOR OUR FORECAST AREA
AT MOMENT. WE BEGIN THE PERIOD ON A QUIET NOTE UNDER RIDGING
SURFACE AND ALOFT THURSDAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVES BY FRIDAY
MORNING WITH A GENERAL SNOWFALL ENDING FRIDAY NIGHT. BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM...WEAK RIDGING FOLLOWS FOR SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. MORE
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM FOR SUNDAY NIGHT - MONDAY AS THE
BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD MAY REMAIN OFFSHORE.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...WIDESPREAD IFR AND LIFR IS DEVELOPING FROM SRN NH TO
COASTAL ME AT THIS HOUR. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE AS HEAVY SNWFL
BAND SLOWLY ROTATES NEWD. THIS WILL CONTINUE THRU EARLY AFTERNOON.
KLEB AND KHIE WILL BE SLOWER TO SEE IFR CONDITIONS...POSSIBLY
HOLDING OFF UNTIL MID MORNING OR LATER. COASTAL TERMINALS WILL
SEE NNELY WIND GUSTS NEAR 45 KTS AT TIMES. SNWFL WINDS DOWN BY TUE
EVENING...THOUGH PCPN LINGERS INTO WED. COULD SEE SCATTERED IFR
CONDITIONS WILL LINGERING SHSN.

LONG TERM...

FRI...MVFR IN SNOW WITH LCL IFR CONDS PSSBL.
      NW SFC WIND GUSTING TO 25 KT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...STORM WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR ALL
WATERS...EXCEPT FOR OUTER WATERS S OF CAPE ELIZABETH. HERE A
PERIOD OF 65 KT GUSTS APPEARS LIKELY...SO HAVE ISSUED A HURRICANE
FORCE WIND WARNING. ALSO MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY IS ALREADY
OCCURRING ON THE WATER BASED ON BUOY OBSERVATIONS. HAVE ISSUED A
FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY THRU WED MORNING AS A RESULT.

LONG TERM...

THU NIGHT - SAT...GALE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
LARGE...BATTERING WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO STRIKE THE COASTLINE
THROUGH THE UPCOMING 5 PM HIGH TIDE. LONG PERIOD SWELLS ARE NOW UP
TO 30 FEET AT JEFFREYS LEDGE. EXPECT LOCALLY SIGNIFICANT SPLASH-
OVER AND EROSION NEAR THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
WARNINGS REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THIS POTENTIAL HIGH IMPACT EVENT.

STORM SURGE VALUES WILL REMAIN JUST BELOW THREE FEET THIS
AFTERNOON...AND IN COMBINATION WITH A 9.1 FOOT ASTRONOMICAL TIDE
IN PORTLAND...MINOR FLOODING WILL LIKELY OCCUR AS THE STORM TIDE
REACHES 12 FEET. WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON
JUST PRIOR TO HIGH TIDE...WHICH MAY REDUCE THE STORM SURGE.

USED THE NORTH ATLANTIC REGIONAL TEAM WAVE RUNUP MATRICES TO
FORECAST AND WARN FOR THE TWO HIGH TIDES TODAY. THE OUTPUT SHOWS
WAVE ACTION WILL ALLOW FOR LOCALLY SIGNIFICANT EROSION AS WELL AS
OVERWASH AT JENNIS...CAMP ELLIS BEACH...FERRY BEACH...FORTUNES
ROCKS BEACH...WITH EROSION OCCURING AT POPHAM BEACH.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MEZ007>009-
     012>014.
     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MEZ018>028.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     MEZ025>028.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MEZ023-
     024.
NH...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NHZ002>009-
     011-015.
     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NHZ010-012>014.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NHZ001.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NHZ014.
MARINE...STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ151-153.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ150>154.
     HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
JC



000
FXUS61 KGYX 271713
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1213 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD TO JUST SOUTH OF
NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS TODAY. THE LOW WILL LINGER AROUND THROUGH
WEDNESDAY BRINGING A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO OUR REGION. ANOTHER
STORM SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING A GENERAL SNOWFALL TO THE AREA ON
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
.UPDATE...
DEFORMATION BAND CONTINUES TO CHURN OUT INTENSE SNOWFALL ALONG
COASTAL NH AND MAINE. VERY INTENSE FRONTOGENESIS AROUND 700 MB
AND STRONG UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION IN THE SNOW GROWTH ZONE IS
HELPING TO CREATE HOURLY SNOWFALL RATES OF 3-5" PER HOUR THIS
MORNING. MEASURING THE SNOW IS PROBLEMATIC IN BLIZZARD CONDITIONS
AND HEAVY DRIFTING... HOWEVER SNOWFALL TOTALS HAVE TOPPED 20" IN
SOME PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NH AND SW MAINE ALREADY THIS MORNING.

MESOSCALE MODELS ARE CORRECT IN DEPICTING THIS STORM SLOWLY
ROTATING INLAND OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS BAND IS ALREADY
PIVOTING SLOWLY INLAND WITH THE PIVOT POINT IN EASTERN
MASSACHUSETTS. THIS FORMATION WILL CONTINUE TO DUMP HEAVY SNOW
OVER SECTIONS THAT HAVE ALREADY SEEN MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW...
ALTHOUGH IT SHOULD LIGHTEN UP AFTER THE NEXT 3 HOURS. THE BAND
SHOULD REACH A POINT WHERE IT IS CENTERED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING
FROM HARMONY...TO BETHEL... TO FRYEBURG ME... AND TOWARDS
FARMINGTON... RAYMOND... AND HAMPSTEAD NH. UNFORTUNATELY THIS BAND
MAINTAINS THROUGHOUT THE EVENING OVER THESE LOCATIONS... BEFORE
SLOWLY BREAKING APART TOWARDS MIDNIGHT. STILL... WE ARE CURRENTLY
RECEIVING THE HIGHEST RATES/AMOUNTS CURRENTLY... SO EVEN THOUGH
THE BAND WILL BE OVER THESE LOCATIONS PERHAPS LONGER... THEY
SHOULD RECEIVE SLIGHTLY LESS THAN AREAS RIGHT ON THE COAST.

HURRICANE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN HOISTED FOR THE OUTER WATERS. WE HAVE
BEEN RECEIVING REPORTS OF 55+ MPH WIND GUSTS IN SOUTHERN NH. THIS
SHOULD NOT BE HARD TO BELIEVE... DUE TO THE SNOWFALL RATES WE HAVE
BEEN SEEING... PRECIPITATION LOADING WILL CONTRIBUTE HEAVILY TO
MIXING THE VERY STRONG WINDS TO THE SURFACE. IN ADDITION WINDS IN
THE 60S AND 70S HAVE BEEN VERIFIED TO OUR SOUTH.

SHOULD GO WITHOUT SAYING...BUT TRAVEL IS ESSENTIALLY IMPOSSIBLE
FOR MUCH OF MAINE AND NH AT THIS POINT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRES OCCLUDES AND UPPER LOW DRIFTS ACROSS THE AREA THRU WED.
THIS WILL CONTINUE -SN FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD...THOUGH INTENSITY
WILL BE FAR LESS THAN THAT EXPERIENCED TODAY. AN ADDITIONAL COUPLE
OF INCHES OF ACCUMULATIONS IS POSSIBLE. TEMPS WILL BE ON THE COOL
SIDE WITH GUSTY WLY WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE LONG WAVE PATTERN
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES EXIST
WITH TIMING AND STRENGTH OF INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES LEADING TO
DECREASED CONFIDENCE IN SENSIBLE WEATHER. THE OVERALL THEME IS
WESTERN RIDGE AND EASTERN TROUGH FOR THE CONUS...WITH AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE FOR SYNOPTIC
SNOWS ROUGHLY EVERY TWO DAYS...WITH FRIDAY - FRIDAY NIGHT...SUNDAY
NIGHT-MONDAY...THE MOST LIKELY TIME FRAMES FOR OUR FORECAST AREA
AT MOMENT. WE BEGIN THE PERIOD ON A QUIET NOTE UNDER RIDGING
SURFACE AND ALOFT THURSDAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVES BY FRIDAY
MORNING WITH A GENERAL SNOWFALL ENDING FRIDAY NIGHT. BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM...WEAK RIDGING FOLLOWS FOR SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. MORE
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM FOR SUNDAY NIGHT - MONDAY AS THE
BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD MAY REMAIN OFFSHORE.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...WIDESPREAD IFR AND LIFR IS DEVELOPING FROM SRN NH TO
COASTAL ME AT THIS HOUR. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE AS HEAVY SNWFL
BAND SLOWLY ROTATES NEWD. THIS WILL CONTINUE THRU EARLY AFTERNOON.
KLEB AND KHIE WILL BE SLOWER TO SEE IFR CONDITIONS...POSSIBLY
HOLDING OFF UNTIL MID MORNING OR LATER. COASTAL TERMINALS WILL
SEE NNELY WIND GUSTS NEAR 45 KTS AT TIMES. SNWFL WINDS DOWN BY TUE
EVENING...THOUGH PCPN LINGERS INTO WED. COULD SEE SCATTERED IFR
CONDITIONS WILL LINGERING SHSN.

LONG TERM...

FRI...MVFR IN SNOW WITH LCL IFR CONDS PSSBL.
      NW SFC WIND GUSTING TO 25 KT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...STORM WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR ALL
WATERS...EXCEPT FOR OUTER WATERS S OF CAPE ELIZABETH. HERE A
PERIOD OF 65 KT GUSTS APPEARS LIKELY...SO HAVE ISSUED A HURRICANE
FORCE WIND WARNING. ALSO MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY IS ALREADY
OCCURRING ON THE WATER BASED ON BUOY OBSERVATIONS. HAVE ISSUED A
FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY THRU WED MORNING AS A RESULT.

LONG TERM...

THU NIGHT - SAT...GALE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
LARGE...BATTERING WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO STRIKE THE COASTLINE
THROUGH THE UPCOMING 5 PM HIGH TIDE. LONG PERIOD SWELLS ARE NOW UP
TO 30 FEET AT JEFFREYS LEDGE. EXPECT LOCALLY SIGNIFICANT SPLASH-
OVER AND EROSION NEAR THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
WARNINGS REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THIS POTENTIAL HIGH IMPACT EVENT.

STORM SURGE VALUES WILL REMAIN JUST BELOW THREE FEET THIS
AFTERNOON...AND IN COMBINATION WITH A 9.1 FOOT ASTRONOMICAL TIDE
IN PORTLAND...MINOR FLOODING WILL LIKELY OCCUR AS THE STORM TIDE
REACHES 12 FEET. WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON
JUST PRIOR TO HIGH TIDE...WHICH MAY REDUCE THE STORM SURGE.

USED THE NORTH ATLANTIC REGIONAL TEAM WAVE RUNUP MATRICES TO
FORECAST AND WARN FOR THE TWO HIGH TIDES TODAY. THE OUTPUT SHOWS
WAVE ACTION WILL ALLOW FOR LOCALLY SIGNIFICANT EROSION AS WELL AS
OVERWASH AT JENNIS...CAMP ELLIS BEACH...FERRY BEACH...FORTUNES
ROCKS BEACH...WITH EROSION OCCURING AT POPHAM BEACH.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MEZ007>009-
     012>014.
     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MEZ018>028.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     MEZ025>028.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MEZ023-
     024.
NH...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NHZ002>009-
     011-015.
     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NHZ010-012>014.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NHZ001.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NHZ014.
MARINE...STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ151-153.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ150>154.
     HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
JC



000
FXUS61 KGYX 271713
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1213 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD TO JUST SOUTH OF
NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS TODAY. THE LOW WILL LINGER AROUND THROUGH
WEDNESDAY BRINGING A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO OUR REGION. ANOTHER
STORM SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING A GENERAL SNOWFALL TO THE AREA ON
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
.UPDATE...
DEFORMATION BAND CONTINUES TO CHURN OUT INTENSE SNOWFALL ALONG
COASTAL NH AND MAINE. VERY INTENSE FRONTOGENESIS AROUND 700 MB
AND STRONG UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION IN THE SNOW GROWTH ZONE IS
HELPING TO CREATE HOURLY SNOWFALL RATES OF 3-5" PER HOUR THIS
MORNING. MEASURING THE SNOW IS PROBLEMATIC IN BLIZZARD CONDITIONS
AND HEAVY DRIFTING... HOWEVER SNOWFALL TOTALS HAVE TOPPED 20" IN
SOME PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NH AND SW MAINE ALREADY THIS MORNING.

MESOSCALE MODELS ARE CORRECT IN DEPICTING THIS STORM SLOWLY
ROTATING INLAND OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS BAND IS ALREADY
PIVOTING SLOWLY INLAND WITH THE PIVOT POINT IN EASTERN
MASSACHUSETTS. THIS FORMATION WILL CONTINUE TO DUMP HEAVY SNOW
OVER SECTIONS THAT HAVE ALREADY SEEN MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW...
ALTHOUGH IT SHOULD LIGHTEN UP AFTER THE NEXT 3 HOURS. THE BAND
SHOULD REACH A POINT WHERE IT IS CENTERED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING
FROM HARMONY...TO BETHEL... TO FRYEBURG ME... AND TOWARDS
FARMINGTON... RAYMOND... AND HAMPSTEAD NH. UNFORTUNATELY THIS BAND
MAINTAINS THROUGHOUT THE EVENING OVER THESE LOCATIONS... BEFORE
SLOWLY BREAKING APART TOWARDS MIDNIGHT. STILL... WE ARE CURRENTLY
RECEIVING THE HIGHEST RATES/AMOUNTS CURRENTLY... SO EVEN THOUGH
THE BAND WILL BE OVER THESE LOCATIONS PERHAPS LONGER... THEY
SHOULD RECEIVE SLIGHTLY LESS THAN AREAS RIGHT ON THE COAST.

HURRICANE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN HOISTED FOR THE OUTER WATERS. WE HAVE
BEEN RECEIVING REPORTS OF 55+ MPH WIND GUSTS IN SOUTHERN NH. THIS
SHOULD NOT BE HARD TO BELIEVE... DUE TO THE SNOWFALL RATES WE HAVE
BEEN SEEING... PRECIPITATION LOADING WILL CONTRIBUTE HEAVILY TO
MIXING THE VERY STRONG WINDS TO THE SURFACE. IN ADDITION WINDS IN
THE 60S AND 70S HAVE BEEN VERIFIED TO OUR SOUTH.

SHOULD GO WITHOUT SAYING...BUT TRAVEL IS ESSENTIALLY IMPOSSIBLE
FOR MUCH OF MAINE AND NH AT THIS POINT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRES OCCLUDES AND UPPER LOW DRIFTS ACROSS THE AREA THRU WED.
THIS WILL CONTINUE -SN FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD...THOUGH INTENSITY
WILL BE FAR LESS THAN THAT EXPERIENCED TODAY. AN ADDITIONAL COUPLE
OF INCHES OF ACCUMULATIONS IS POSSIBLE. TEMPS WILL BE ON THE COOL
SIDE WITH GUSTY WLY WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE LONG WAVE PATTERN
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES EXIST
WITH TIMING AND STRENGTH OF INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES LEADING TO
DECREASED CONFIDENCE IN SENSIBLE WEATHER. THE OVERALL THEME IS
WESTERN RIDGE AND EASTERN TROUGH FOR THE CONUS...WITH AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE FOR SYNOPTIC
SNOWS ROUGHLY EVERY TWO DAYS...WITH FRIDAY - FRIDAY NIGHT...SUNDAY
NIGHT-MONDAY...THE MOST LIKELY TIME FRAMES FOR OUR FORECAST AREA
AT MOMENT. WE BEGIN THE PERIOD ON A QUIET NOTE UNDER RIDGING
SURFACE AND ALOFT THURSDAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVES BY FRIDAY
MORNING WITH A GENERAL SNOWFALL ENDING FRIDAY NIGHT. BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM...WEAK RIDGING FOLLOWS FOR SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. MORE
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM FOR SUNDAY NIGHT - MONDAY AS THE
BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD MAY REMAIN OFFSHORE.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...WIDESPREAD IFR AND LIFR IS DEVELOPING FROM SRN NH TO
COASTAL ME AT THIS HOUR. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE AS HEAVY SNWFL
BAND SLOWLY ROTATES NEWD. THIS WILL CONTINUE THRU EARLY AFTERNOON.
KLEB AND KHIE WILL BE SLOWER TO SEE IFR CONDITIONS...POSSIBLY
HOLDING OFF UNTIL MID MORNING OR LATER. COASTAL TERMINALS WILL
SEE NNELY WIND GUSTS NEAR 45 KTS AT TIMES. SNWFL WINDS DOWN BY TUE
EVENING...THOUGH PCPN LINGERS INTO WED. COULD SEE SCATTERED IFR
CONDITIONS WILL LINGERING SHSN.

LONG TERM...

FRI...MVFR IN SNOW WITH LCL IFR CONDS PSSBL.
      NW SFC WIND GUSTING TO 25 KT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...STORM WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR ALL
WATERS...EXCEPT FOR OUTER WATERS S OF CAPE ELIZABETH. HERE A
PERIOD OF 65 KT GUSTS APPEARS LIKELY...SO HAVE ISSUED A HURRICANE
FORCE WIND WARNING. ALSO MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY IS ALREADY
OCCURRING ON THE WATER BASED ON BUOY OBSERVATIONS. HAVE ISSUED A
FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY THRU WED MORNING AS A RESULT.

LONG TERM...

THU NIGHT - SAT...GALE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
LARGE...BATTERING WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO STRIKE THE COASTLINE
THROUGH THE UPCOMING 5 PM HIGH TIDE. LONG PERIOD SWELLS ARE NOW UP
TO 30 FEET AT JEFFREYS LEDGE. EXPECT LOCALLY SIGNIFICANT SPLASH-
OVER AND EROSION NEAR THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
WARNINGS REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THIS POTENTIAL HIGH IMPACT EVENT.

STORM SURGE VALUES WILL REMAIN JUST BELOW THREE FEET THIS
AFTERNOON...AND IN COMBINATION WITH A 9.1 FOOT ASTRONOMICAL TIDE
IN PORTLAND...MINOR FLOODING WILL LIKELY OCCUR AS THE STORM TIDE
REACHES 12 FEET. WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON
JUST PRIOR TO HIGH TIDE...WHICH MAY REDUCE THE STORM SURGE.

USED THE NORTH ATLANTIC REGIONAL TEAM WAVE RUNUP MATRICES TO
FORECAST AND WARN FOR THE TWO HIGH TIDES TODAY. THE OUTPUT SHOWS
WAVE ACTION WILL ALLOW FOR LOCALLY SIGNIFICANT EROSION AS WELL AS
OVERWASH AT JENNIS...CAMP ELLIS BEACH...FERRY BEACH...FORTUNES
ROCKS BEACH...WITH EROSION OCCURING AT POPHAM BEACH.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MEZ007>009-
     012>014.
     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MEZ018>028.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     MEZ025>028.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MEZ023-
     024.
NH...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NHZ002>009-
     011-015.
     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NHZ010-012>014.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NHZ001.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NHZ014.
MARINE...STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ151-153.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ150>154.
     HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
JC



000
FXUS61 KGYX 271713
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1213 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD TO JUST SOUTH OF
NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS TODAY. THE LOW WILL LINGER AROUND THROUGH
WEDNESDAY BRINGING A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO OUR REGION. ANOTHER
STORM SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING A GENERAL SNOWFALL TO THE AREA ON
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
.UPDATE...
DEFORMATION BAND CONTINUES TO CHURN OUT INTENSE SNOWFALL ALONG
COASTAL NH AND MAINE. VERY INTENSE FRONTOGENESIS AROUND 700 MB
AND STRONG UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION IN THE SNOW GROWTH ZONE IS
HELPING TO CREATE HOURLY SNOWFALL RATES OF 3-5" PER HOUR THIS
MORNING. MEASURING THE SNOW IS PROBLEMATIC IN BLIZZARD CONDITIONS
AND HEAVY DRIFTING... HOWEVER SNOWFALL TOTALS HAVE TOPPED 20" IN
SOME PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NH AND SW MAINE ALREADY THIS MORNING.

MESOSCALE MODELS ARE CORRECT IN DEPICTING THIS STORM SLOWLY
ROTATING INLAND OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS BAND IS ALREADY
PIVOTING SLOWLY INLAND WITH THE PIVOT POINT IN EASTERN
MASSACHUSETTS. THIS FORMATION WILL CONTINUE TO DUMP HEAVY SNOW
OVER SECTIONS THAT HAVE ALREADY SEEN MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW...
ALTHOUGH IT SHOULD LIGHTEN UP AFTER THE NEXT 3 HOURS. THE BAND
SHOULD REACH A POINT WHERE IT IS CENTERED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING
FROM HARMONY...TO BETHEL... TO FRYEBURG ME... AND TOWARDS
FARMINGTON... RAYMOND... AND HAMPSTEAD NH. UNFORTUNATELY THIS BAND
MAINTAINS THROUGHOUT THE EVENING OVER THESE LOCATIONS... BEFORE
SLOWLY BREAKING APART TOWARDS MIDNIGHT. STILL... WE ARE CURRENTLY
RECEIVING THE HIGHEST RATES/AMOUNTS CURRENTLY... SO EVEN THOUGH
THE BAND WILL BE OVER THESE LOCATIONS PERHAPS LONGER... THEY
SHOULD RECEIVE SLIGHTLY LESS THAN AREAS RIGHT ON THE COAST.

HURRICANE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN HOISTED FOR THE OUTER WATERS. WE HAVE
BEEN RECEIVING REPORTS OF 55+ MPH WIND GUSTS IN SOUTHERN NH. THIS
SHOULD NOT BE HARD TO BELIEVE... DUE TO THE SNOWFALL RATES WE HAVE
BEEN SEEING... PRECIPITATION LOADING WILL CONTRIBUTE HEAVILY TO
MIXING THE VERY STRONG WINDS TO THE SURFACE. IN ADDITION WINDS IN
THE 60S AND 70S HAVE BEEN VERIFIED TO OUR SOUTH.

SHOULD GO WITHOUT SAYING...BUT TRAVEL IS ESSENTIALLY IMPOSSIBLE
FOR MUCH OF MAINE AND NH AT THIS POINT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRES OCCLUDES AND UPPER LOW DRIFTS ACROSS THE AREA THRU WED.
THIS WILL CONTINUE -SN FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD...THOUGH INTENSITY
WILL BE FAR LESS THAN THAT EXPERIENCED TODAY. AN ADDITIONAL COUPLE
OF INCHES OF ACCUMULATIONS IS POSSIBLE. TEMPS WILL BE ON THE COOL
SIDE WITH GUSTY WLY WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE LONG WAVE PATTERN
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES EXIST
WITH TIMING AND STRENGTH OF INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES LEADING TO
DECREASED CONFIDENCE IN SENSIBLE WEATHER. THE OVERALL THEME IS
WESTERN RIDGE AND EASTERN TROUGH FOR THE CONUS...WITH AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE FOR SYNOPTIC
SNOWS ROUGHLY EVERY TWO DAYS...WITH FRIDAY - FRIDAY NIGHT...SUNDAY
NIGHT-MONDAY...THE MOST LIKELY TIME FRAMES FOR OUR FORECAST AREA
AT MOMENT. WE BEGIN THE PERIOD ON A QUIET NOTE UNDER RIDGING
SURFACE AND ALOFT THURSDAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVES BY FRIDAY
MORNING WITH A GENERAL SNOWFALL ENDING FRIDAY NIGHT. BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM...WEAK RIDGING FOLLOWS FOR SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. MORE
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM FOR SUNDAY NIGHT - MONDAY AS THE
BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD MAY REMAIN OFFSHORE.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...WIDESPREAD IFR AND LIFR IS DEVELOPING FROM SRN NH TO
COASTAL ME AT THIS HOUR. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE AS HEAVY SNWFL
BAND SLOWLY ROTATES NEWD. THIS WILL CONTINUE THRU EARLY AFTERNOON.
KLEB AND KHIE WILL BE SLOWER TO SEE IFR CONDITIONS...POSSIBLY
HOLDING OFF UNTIL MID MORNING OR LATER. COASTAL TERMINALS WILL
SEE NNELY WIND GUSTS NEAR 45 KTS AT TIMES. SNWFL WINDS DOWN BY TUE
EVENING...THOUGH PCPN LINGERS INTO WED. COULD SEE SCATTERED IFR
CONDITIONS WILL LINGERING SHSN.

LONG TERM...

FRI...MVFR IN SNOW WITH LCL IFR CONDS PSSBL.
      NW SFC WIND GUSTING TO 25 KT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...STORM WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR ALL
WATERS...EXCEPT FOR OUTER WATERS S OF CAPE ELIZABETH. HERE A
PERIOD OF 65 KT GUSTS APPEARS LIKELY...SO HAVE ISSUED A HURRICANE
FORCE WIND WARNING. ALSO MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY IS ALREADY
OCCURRING ON THE WATER BASED ON BUOY OBSERVATIONS. HAVE ISSUED A
FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY THRU WED MORNING AS A RESULT.

LONG TERM...

THU NIGHT - SAT...GALE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
LARGE...BATTERING WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO STRIKE THE COASTLINE
THROUGH THE UPCOMING 5 PM HIGH TIDE. LONG PERIOD SWELLS ARE NOW UP
TO 30 FEET AT JEFFREYS LEDGE. EXPECT LOCALLY SIGNIFICANT SPLASH-
OVER AND EROSION NEAR THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
WARNINGS REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THIS POTENTIAL HIGH IMPACT EVENT.

STORM SURGE VALUES WILL REMAIN JUST BELOW THREE FEET THIS
AFTERNOON...AND IN COMBINATION WITH A 9.1 FOOT ASTRONOMICAL TIDE
IN PORTLAND...MINOR FLOODING WILL LIKELY OCCUR AS THE STORM TIDE
REACHES 12 FEET. WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON
JUST PRIOR TO HIGH TIDE...WHICH MAY REDUCE THE STORM SURGE.

USED THE NORTH ATLANTIC REGIONAL TEAM WAVE RUNUP MATRICES TO
FORECAST AND WARN FOR THE TWO HIGH TIDES TODAY. THE OUTPUT SHOWS
WAVE ACTION WILL ALLOW FOR LOCALLY SIGNIFICANT EROSION AS WELL AS
OVERWASH AT JENNIS...CAMP ELLIS BEACH...FERRY BEACH...FORTUNES
ROCKS BEACH...WITH EROSION OCCURING AT POPHAM BEACH.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MEZ007>009-
     012>014.
     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MEZ018>028.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     MEZ025>028.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MEZ023-
     024.
NH...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NHZ002>009-
     011-015.
     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NHZ010-012>014.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NHZ001.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NHZ014.
MARINE...STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ151-153.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ150>154.
     HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
JC



000
FXUS61 KCAR 271604
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1104 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF CAPE COD THIS MORNING WILL MOVE INTO
THE GULF OF MAINE THIS EVENING AND ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA WEDNESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
11 AM UPDATE...BAND OF VERY HEAVY SNOW EXTENDING FROM SOUTHWESTERN
AROOSTOOK COUNTY ACROSS CENTRAL PENOBSCOT COUNTY. BAND IS MOVING
NORTH, BUT WILL MODIFY IN INTENSITY A BIT AS IT DOES SO. SNOW HAS
TAPERED OFF ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST AS DRY SLOT MOVES IN. SOME
LIGHTER BANDS OF SNOW ARE STILL POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING DOWNEAST. BLOWING SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS DOWNEAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
WINTER STORM WARNINGS REMAIN UP FOR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS WITH
A BLIZZARD WARNING FOR ALL OF INTERIOR AND COASTAL DOWN EAST MAINE.
THE LATEST MSAS ANALYSIS SHOWS A 983 MB LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ABOUT
150 MILES SOUTH OF CAPE COD. THIS LOW WILL LIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST
TODAY AND ACROSS SOUTHWEST NOVA SCOTIA LATE TONIGHT. LATEST RADAR
IMAGERY SHOWS THE LEADING EDGE OF THE SNOW BEGINNING TO WORK NORTH
INTO DOWN EAST MAINE AS OF THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. EXPECT THE SNOW TO
CONTINUE TO EXPAND NORTH ACROSS THE REGION BY LATER THIS MORNING.
THE SNOW WILL BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES TODAY. AS THE LOW CONTINUES
TO TRACK OFF TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY EXPECT GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS
TO PRODUCE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW WITH WHITEOUT/BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS EXPECTED ESPECIALLY ACROSS DOWN EAST AREAS. LIGHTER
SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT BUT GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO RESULT IN BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. SNOWFALL TOTALS
THROUGH TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 6 TO 10 INCHES ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS WITH 12 TO 18 INCHES ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWN EAST
AREAS...WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE CLOSER TO
THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A DOUBLE BARRELED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CONSISTING OF THE DEEP LOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THE NOR`EASTER AND A SECOND TRIPLE POINT LOW WILL
BE FOUND ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA AND THE SOUTHERN TIP OF LABRADOR AT
12Z WED. THE LOWS WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY WED AS HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY MOVES EAST. THE HIGH WILL CREST OVER NEW
ENGLAND BY 12Z THU AND MOVE OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD DURING THE
DAY THU. LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH FROM THE W AND WILL
MOVE INTO WESTERN QUEBEC AND WESTERN NY STATE BY 00Z FRI.

AS FAR AS THE SENSIBLE WEATHER GOES...WE EXPECT AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW
WED MORNING TO WIND DOWN AS THE STRONG WIND DIMINISHES. THERE
WILL LIKELY EVEN BE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS BY AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WED WILL BE SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS FROM THE UPPER
TEENS NORTH TO THE MID 20S DOWN EAST. IT WILL BE SEASONABLE COLD
WED NIGHT AND DRY AND SEASONABLE THU WITH INCREASING CLOUDS IN THE
AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES. THE NEXT LOW MOVES IN FROM
THE W THU NIGHT AND DEEPENS IN THE GULF OF MAINE FRI. AN INVERTED
TROUGH WILL LIKELY EXTEND FROM THE LOW BACK ACROSS EASTERN MAINE
FRI. THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT
SNOWFALL...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS TO THE WEST. IT LOOKS LIKE ONCE WE ARE
DONE WITH THE CURRENT STORM THAT WE COULD VERY WELL NEED ANOTHER
ROUND OF WINTER STORM WATCHES FOR THE BANGOR AND KATAHDIN
REGIONS EAST. THE LOW PULLS AWAY SAT AND SHOULD LEAVE THE AREA
DRY AND COLD. THE NEXT SYSTEM MAY BRING THE CHANCE OF YET MORE
SNOW BY MON....BUT THERE ARE MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH SOME
SOLUTIONS MORE SUPPRESSED AND SOUTH OF THE REGION. TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS FOR SUN AND MON.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: WIDESPREAD LIFR/VLIFR CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY AT ALL
TERMINALS IN SNOW. GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL RESULT IN
CONSIDERABLE BLOWING SNOW ESPECIALLY KBGR/KBHB TERMINALS. IFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT IN SNOW.

SHORT TERM: MVFR WITH POCKETS OF IFR EARLY WED MORNING SHOULD
GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO VFR BY AFTERNOON. VFR WED NIGHT AND THU.
CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY LOWER TO IFR AND EVEN VLIFR FRI IN SNOW.
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR ON SAT...EXCEPT ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TERMINALS WHERE MVFR IS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT INTO TONIGHT. A
FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY IS ALSO IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT FOR
MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY. VISIBILITY WILL BE REDUCED TO LESS THAN
1 NM THROUGH TONIGHT IN SNOW.

SHORT TERM: ONCE THE STORM WARNING COMES DOWN A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
FOR THE RESIDUAL SEAS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THROUGH AROUND 00Z THU.
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SCA LEVELS WED NIGHT THROUGH
EARLY FRI.  A GALE IS POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT AS LOW PRES PULLS EAST OF
THE WATERS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AROUND THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE. HIGH TIDE
OCCURS AT 4 AM THIS MORNING...430 PM THIS AFTERNOON...AND 5 AM
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE RECORD SNOWFALL FOR TODAY, 1/27 AT BANGOR IS 10.8"
SET IN 1963. THIS RECORD HAS A HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF BEING BROKEN.
THE RECORD AT CARIBOU IS 9.9", SET IN 1963.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MEZ001>006-
     010-011-031-032.
     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MEZ015>017-029-
     030.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MEZ029-030.
MARINE...STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ050>052.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DUDA
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM...CB
AVIATION...DUDA/CB
MARINE...DUDA/CB
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CLIMATE...CB



000
FXUS61 KCAR 271533
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1033 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF CAPE COD THIS MORNING WILL MOVE INTO
THE GULF OF MAINE THIS EVENING AND ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA WEDNESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
9 AM UPDATE...VERY HEAVY SNOW IS OCCURRING DOWNEAST WHERE
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE WIDESPREAD. SNOW HAS REACH SOUTHWESTERN
AROOSTOOK COUNTY AND WILL BE SLOWLY PUSHING INTO NORTHERN
AROOSTOOK COUNTY DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. FORECAST REMAINS ON
TRACK FOR HEAVIEST SNOW DOWNEAST WITH MORE MODERATE AMOUNTS ACROSS
THE FAR NORTH.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
WINTER STORM WARNINGS REMAIN UP FOR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS WITH
A BLIZZARD WARNING FOR ALL OF INTERIOR AND COASTAL DOWN EAST MAINE.
THE LATEST MSAS ANALYSIS SHOWS A 983 MB LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ABOUT
150 MILES SOUTH OF CAPE COD. THIS LOW WILL LIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST
TODAY AND ACROSS SOUTHWEST NOVA SCOTIA LATE TONIGHT. LATEST RADAR
IMAGERY SHOWS THE LEADING EDGE OF THE SNOW BEGINNING TO WORK NORTH
INTO DOWN EAST MAINE AS OF THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. EXPECT THE SNOW TO
CONTINUE TO EXPAND NORTH ACROSS THE REGION BY LATER THIS MORNING.
THE SNOW WILL BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES TODAY. AS THE LOW CONTINUES
TO TRACK OFF TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY EXPECT GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS
TO PRODUCE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW WITH WHITEOUT/BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS EXPECTED ESPECIALLY ACROSS DOWN EAST AREAS. LIGHTER
SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT BUT GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO RESULT IN BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. SNOWFALL TOTALS
THROUGH TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 6 TO 10 INCHES ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS WITH 12 TO 18 INCHES ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWN EAST
AREAS...WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE CLOSER TO
THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A DOUBLE BARRELED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CONSISTING OF THE DEEP LOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THE NOR`EASTER AND A SECOND TRIPLE POINT LOW WILL
BE FOUND ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA AND THE SOUTHERN TIP OF LABRADOR AT
12Z WED. THE LOWS WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY WED AS HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY MOVES EAST. THE HIGH WILL CREST OVER NEW
ENGLAND BY 12Z THU AND MOVE OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD DURING THE
DAY THU. LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH FROM THE W AND WILL
MOVE INTO WESTERN QUEBEC AND WESTERN NY STATE BY 00Z FRI.

AS FAR AS THE SENSIBLE WEATHER GOES...WE EXPECT AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW
WED MORNING TO WIND DOWN AS THE STRONG WIND DIMINISHES. THERE
WILL LIKELY EVEN BE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS BY AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WED WILL BE SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS FROM THE UPPER
TEENS NORTH TO THE MID 20S DOWN EAST. IT WILL BE SEASONABLE COLD
WED NIGHT AND DRY AND SEASONABLE THU WITH INCREASING CLOUDS IN THE
AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES. THE NEXT LOW MOVES IN FROM
THE W THU NIGHT AND DEEPENS IN THE GULF OF MAINE FRI. AN INVERTED
TROUGH WILL LIKELY EXTEND FROM THE LOW BACK ACROSS EASTERN MAINE
FRI. THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT
SNOWFALL...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS TO THE WEST. IT LOOKS LIKE ONCE WE ARE
DONE WITH THE CURRENT STORM THAT WE COULD VERY WELL NEED ANOTHER
ROUND OF WINTER STORM WATCHES FOR THE BANGOR AND KATAHDIN
REGIONS EAST. THE LOW PULLS AWAY SAT AND SHOULD LEAVE THE AREA
DRY AND COLD. THE NEXT SYSTEM MAY BRING THE CHANCE OF YET MORE
SNOW BY MON....BUT THERE ARE MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH SOME
SOLUTIONS MORE SUPPRESSED AND SOUTH OF THE REGION. TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS FOR SUN AND MON.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: WIDESPREAD LIFR/VLIFR CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY AT ALL
TERMINALS IN SNOW. GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL RESULT IN
CONSIDERABLE BLOWING SNOW ESPECIALLY KBGR/KBHB TERMINALS. IFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT IN SNOW.

SHORT TERM: MVFR WITH POCKETS OF IFR EARLY WED MORNING SHOULD
GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO VFR BY AFTERNOON. VFR WED NIGHT AND THU.
CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY LOWER TO IFR AND EVEN VLIFR FRI IN SNOW.
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR ON SAT...EXCEPT ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TERMINALS WHERE MVFR IS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT INTO TONIGHT. A
FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY IS ALSO IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT FOR
MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY. VISIBILITY WILL BE REDUCED TO LESS THAN
1 NM THROUGH TONIGHT IN SNOW.

SHORT TERM: ONCE THE STORM WARNING COMES DOWN A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
FOR THE RESIDUAL SEAS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THROUGH AROUND 00Z THU.
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SCA LEVELS WED NIGHT THROUGH
EARLY FRI.  A GALE IS POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT AS LOW PRES PULLS EAST OF
THE WATERS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AROUND THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE. HIGH TIDE
OCCURS AT 4 AM THIS MORNING...430 PM THIS AFTERNOON...AND 5 AM
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE RECORD SNOWFALL FOR TODAY, 1/27 AT BANGOR IS 10.8"
SET IN 1963. THIS RECORD HAS A HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF BEING BROKEN.
THE RECORD AT CARIBOU IS 9.9", SET IN 1963.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MEZ001>006-
     010-011-031-032.
     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MEZ015>017-029-
     030.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MEZ029-030.
MARINE...STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ050>052.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DUDA
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM...CB
AVIATION...DUDA/CB
MARINE...DUDA/CB
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KCAR 271533
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1033 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF CAPE COD THIS MORNING WILL MOVE INTO
THE GULF OF MAINE THIS EVENING AND ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA WEDNESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
9 AM UPDATE...VERY HEAVY SNOW IS OCCURRING DOWNEAST WHERE
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE WIDESPREAD. SNOW HAS REACH SOUTHWESTERN
AROOSTOOK COUNTY AND WILL BE SLOWLY PUSHING INTO NORTHERN
AROOSTOOK COUNTY DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. FORECAST REMAINS ON
TRACK FOR HEAVIEST SNOW DOWNEAST WITH MORE MODERATE AMOUNTS ACROSS
THE FAR NORTH.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
WINTER STORM WARNINGS REMAIN UP FOR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS WITH
A BLIZZARD WARNING FOR ALL OF INTERIOR AND COASTAL DOWN EAST MAINE.
THE LATEST MSAS ANALYSIS SHOWS A 983 MB LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ABOUT
150 MILES SOUTH OF CAPE COD. THIS LOW WILL LIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST
TODAY AND ACROSS SOUTHWEST NOVA SCOTIA LATE TONIGHT. LATEST RADAR
IMAGERY SHOWS THE LEADING EDGE OF THE SNOW BEGINNING TO WORK NORTH
INTO DOWN EAST MAINE AS OF THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. EXPECT THE SNOW TO
CONTINUE TO EXPAND NORTH ACROSS THE REGION BY LATER THIS MORNING.
THE SNOW WILL BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES TODAY. AS THE LOW CONTINUES
TO TRACK OFF TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY EXPECT GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS
TO PRODUCE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW WITH WHITEOUT/BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS EXPECTED ESPECIALLY ACROSS DOWN EAST AREAS. LIGHTER
SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT BUT GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO RESULT IN BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. SNOWFALL TOTALS
THROUGH TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 6 TO 10 INCHES ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS WITH 12 TO 18 INCHES ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWN EAST
AREAS...WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE CLOSER TO
THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A DOUBLE BARRELED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CONSISTING OF THE DEEP LOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THE NOR`EASTER AND A SECOND TRIPLE POINT LOW WILL
BE FOUND ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA AND THE SOUTHERN TIP OF LABRADOR AT
12Z WED. THE LOWS WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY WED AS HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY MOVES EAST. THE HIGH WILL CREST OVER NEW
ENGLAND BY 12Z THU AND MOVE OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD DURING THE
DAY THU. LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH FROM THE W AND WILL
MOVE INTO WESTERN QUEBEC AND WESTERN NY STATE BY 00Z FRI.

AS FAR AS THE SENSIBLE WEATHER GOES...WE EXPECT AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW
WED MORNING TO WIND DOWN AS THE STRONG WIND DIMINISHES. THERE
WILL LIKELY EVEN BE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS BY AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WED WILL BE SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS FROM THE UPPER
TEENS NORTH TO THE MID 20S DOWN EAST. IT WILL BE SEASONABLE COLD
WED NIGHT AND DRY AND SEASONABLE THU WITH INCREASING CLOUDS IN THE
AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES. THE NEXT LOW MOVES IN FROM
THE W THU NIGHT AND DEEPENS IN THE GULF OF MAINE FRI. AN INVERTED
TROUGH WILL LIKELY EXTEND FROM THE LOW BACK ACROSS EASTERN MAINE
FRI. THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT
SNOWFALL...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS TO THE WEST. IT LOOKS LIKE ONCE WE ARE
DONE WITH THE CURRENT STORM THAT WE COULD VERY WELL NEED ANOTHER
ROUND OF WINTER STORM WATCHES FOR THE BANGOR AND KATAHDIN
REGIONS EAST. THE LOW PULLS AWAY SAT AND SHOULD LEAVE THE AREA
DRY AND COLD. THE NEXT SYSTEM MAY BRING THE CHANCE OF YET MORE
SNOW BY MON....BUT THERE ARE MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH SOME
SOLUTIONS MORE SUPPRESSED AND SOUTH OF THE REGION. TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS FOR SUN AND MON.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: WIDESPREAD LIFR/VLIFR CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY AT ALL
TERMINALS IN SNOW. GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL RESULT IN
CONSIDERABLE BLOWING SNOW ESPECIALLY KBGR/KBHB TERMINALS. IFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT IN SNOW.

SHORT TERM: MVFR WITH POCKETS OF IFR EARLY WED MORNING SHOULD
GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO VFR BY AFTERNOON. VFR WED NIGHT AND THU.
CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY LOWER TO IFR AND EVEN VLIFR FRI IN SNOW.
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR ON SAT...EXCEPT ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TERMINALS WHERE MVFR IS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT INTO TONIGHT. A
FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY IS ALSO IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT FOR
MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY. VISIBILITY WILL BE REDUCED TO LESS THAN
1 NM THROUGH TONIGHT IN SNOW.

SHORT TERM: ONCE THE STORM WARNING COMES DOWN A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
FOR THE RESIDUAL SEAS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THROUGH AROUND 00Z THU.
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SCA LEVELS WED NIGHT THROUGH
EARLY FRI.  A GALE IS POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT AS LOW PRES PULLS EAST OF
THE WATERS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AROUND THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE. HIGH TIDE
OCCURS AT 4 AM THIS MORNING...430 PM THIS AFTERNOON...AND 5 AM
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE RECORD SNOWFALL FOR TODAY, 1/27 AT BANGOR IS 10.8"
SET IN 1963. THIS RECORD HAS A HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF BEING BROKEN.
THE RECORD AT CARIBOU IS 9.9", SET IN 1963.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MEZ001>006-
     010-011-031-032.
     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MEZ015>017-029-
     030.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MEZ029-030.
MARINE...STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ050>052.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DUDA
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM...CB
AVIATION...DUDA/CB
MARINE...DUDA/CB
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KCAR 271533
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1033 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF CAPE COD THIS MORNING WILL MOVE INTO
THE GULF OF MAINE THIS EVENING AND ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA WEDNESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
9 AM UPDATE...VERY HEAVY SNOW IS OCCURRING DOWNEAST WHERE
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE WIDESPREAD. SNOW HAS REACH SOUTHWESTERN
AROOSTOOK COUNTY AND WILL BE SLOWLY PUSHING INTO NORTHERN
AROOSTOOK COUNTY DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. FORECAST REMAINS ON
TRACK FOR HEAVIEST SNOW DOWNEAST WITH MORE MODERATE AMOUNTS ACROSS
THE FAR NORTH.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
WINTER STORM WARNINGS REMAIN UP FOR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS WITH
A BLIZZARD WARNING FOR ALL OF INTERIOR AND COASTAL DOWN EAST MAINE.
THE LATEST MSAS ANALYSIS SHOWS A 983 MB LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ABOUT
150 MILES SOUTH OF CAPE COD. THIS LOW WILL LIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST
TODAY AND ACROSS SOUTHWEST NOVA SCOTIA LATE TONIGHT. LATEST RADAR
IMAGERY SHOWS THE LEADING EDGE OF THE SNOW BEGINNING TO WORK NORTH
INTO DOWN EAST MAINE AS OF THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. EXPECT THE SNOW TO
CONTINUE TO EXPAND NORTH ACROSS THE REGION BY LATER THIS MORNING.
THE SNOW WILL BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES TODAY. AS THE LOW CONTINUES
TO TRACK OFF TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY EXPECT GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS
TO PRODUCE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW WITH WHITEOUT/BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS EXPECTED ESPECIALLY ACROSS DOWN EAST AREAS. LIGHTER
SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT BUT GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO RESULT IN BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. SNOWFALL TOTALS
THROUGH TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 6 TO 10 INCHES ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS WITH 12 TO 18 INCHES ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWN EAST
AREAS...WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE CLOSER TO
THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A DOUBLE BARRELED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CONSISTING OF THE DEEP LOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THE NOR`EASTER AND A SECOND TRIPLE POINT LOW WILL
BE FOUND ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA AND THE SOUTHERN TIP OF LABRADOR AT
12Z WED. THE LOWS WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY WED AS HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY MOVES EAST. THE HIGH WILL CREST OVER NEW
ENGLAND BY 12Z THU AND MOVE OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD DURING THE
DAY THU. LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH FROM THE W AND WILL
MOVE INTO WESTERN QUEBEC AND WESTERN NY STATE BY 00Z FRI.

AS FAR AS THE SENSIBLE WEATHER GOES...WE EXPECT AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW
WED MORNING TO WIND DOWN AS THE STRONG WIND DIMINISHES. THERE
WILL LIKELY EVEN BE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS BY AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WED WILL BE SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS FROM THE UPPER
TEENS NORTH TO THE MID 20S DOWN EAST. IT WILL BE SEASONABLE COLD
WED NIGHT AND DRY AND SEASONABLE THU WITH INCREASING CLOUDS IN THE
AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES. THE NEXT LOW MOVES IN FROM
THE W THU NIGHT AND DEEPENS IN THE GULF OF MAINE FRI. AN INVERTED
TROUGH WILL LIKELY EXTEND FROM THE LOW BACK ACROSS EASTERN MAINE
FRI. THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT
SNOWFALL...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS TO THE WEST. IT LOOKS LIKE ONCE WE ARE
DONE WITH THE CURRENT STORM THAT WE COULD VERY WELL NEED ANOTHER
ROUND OF WINTER STORM WATCHES FOR THE BANGOR AND KATAHDIN
REGIONS EAST. THE LOW PULLS AWAY SAT AND SHOULD LEAVE THE AREA
DRY AND COLD. THE NEXT SYSTEM MAY BRING THE CHANCE OF YET MORE
SNOW BY MON....BUT THERE ARE MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH SOME
SOLUTIONS MORE SUPPRESSED AND SOUTH OF THE REGION. TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS FOR SUN AND MON.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: WIDESPREAD LIFR/VLIFR CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY AT ALL
TERMINALS IN SNOW. GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL RESULT IN
CONSIDERABLE BLOWING SNOW ESPECIALLY KBGR/KBHB TERMINALS. IFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT IN SNOW.

SHORT TERM: MVFR WITH POCKETS OF IFR EARLY WED MORNING SHOULD
GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO VFR BY AFTERNOON. VFR WED NIGHT AND THU.
CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY LOWER TO IFR AND EVEN VLIFR FRI IN SNOW.
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR ON SAT...EXCEPT ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TERMINALS WHERE MVFR IS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT INTO TONIGHT. A
FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY IS ALSO IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT FOR
MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY. VISIBILITY WILL BE REDUCED TO LESS THAN
1 NM THROUGH TONIGHT IN SNOW.

SHORT TERM: ONCE THE STORM WARNING COMES DOWN A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
FOR THE RESIDUAL SEAS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THROUGH AROUND 00Z THU.
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SCA LEVELS WED NIGHT THROUGH
EARLY FRI.  A GALE IS POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT AS LOW PRES PULLS EAST OF
THE WATERS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AROUND THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE. HIGH TIDE
OCCURS AT 4 AM THIS MORNING...430 PM THIS AFTERNOON...AND 5 AM
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE RECORD SNOWFALL FOR TODAY, 1/27 AT BANGOR IS 10.8"
SET IN 1963. THIS RECORD HAS A HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF BEING BROKEN.
THE RECORD AT CARIBOU IS 9.9", SET IN 1963.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MEZ001>006-
     010-011-031-032.
     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MEZ015>017-029-
     030.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MEZ029-030.
MARINE...STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ050>052.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DUDA
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM...CB
AVIATION...DUDA/CB
MARINE...DUDA/CB
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KCAR 271533
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1033 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF CAPE COD THIS MORNING WILL MOVE INTO
THE GULF OF MAINE THIS EVENING AND ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA WEDNESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
9 AM UPDATE...VERY HEAVY SNOW IS OCCURRING DOWNEAST WHERE
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE WIDESPREAD. SNOW HAS REACH SOUTHWESTERN
AROOSTOOK COUNTY AND WILL BE SLOWLY PUSHING INTO NORTHERN
AROOSTOOK COUNTY DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. FORECAST REMAINS ON
TRACK FOR HEAVIEST SNOW DOWNEAST WITH MORE MODERATE AMOUNTS ACROSS
THE FAR NORTH.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
WINTER STORM WARNINGS REMAIN UP FOR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS WITH
A BLIZZARD WARNING FOR ALL OF INTERIOR AND COASTAL DOWN EAST MAINE.
THE LATEST MSAS ANALYSIS SHOWS A 983 MB LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ABOUT
150 MILES SOUTH OF CAPE COD. THIS LOW WILL LIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST
TODAY AND ACROSS SOUTHWEST NOVA SCOTIA LATE TONIGHT. LATEST RADAR
IMAGERY SHOWS THE LEADING EDGE OF THE SNOW BEGINNING TO WORK NORTH
INTO DOWN EAST MAINE AS OF THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. EXPECT THE SNOW TO
CONTINUE TO EXPAND NORTH ACROSS THE REGION BY LATER THIS MORNING.
THE SNOW WILL BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES TODAY. AS THE LOW CONTINUES
TO TRACK OFF TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY EXPECT GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS
TO PRODUCE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW WITH WHITEOUT/BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS EXPECTED ESPECIALLY ACROSS DOWN EAST AREAS. LIGHTER
SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT BUT GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO RESULT IN BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. SNOWFALL TOTALS
THROUGH TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 6 TO 10 INCHES ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS WITH 12 TO 18 INCHES ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWN EAST
AREAS...WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE CLOSER TO
THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A DOUBLE BARRELED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CONSISTING OF THE DEEP LOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THE NOR`EASTER AND A SECOND TRIPLE POINT LOW WILL
BE FOUND ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA AND THE SOUTHERN TIP OF LABRADOR AT
12Z WED. THE LOWS WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY WED AS HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY MOVES EAST. THE HIGH WILL CREST OVER NEW
ENGLAND BY 12Z THU AND MOVE OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD DURING THE
DAY THU. LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH FROM THE W AND WILL
MOVE INTO WESTERN QUEBEC AND WESTERN NY STATE BY 00Z FRI.

AS FAR AS THE SENSIBLE WEATHER GOES...WE EXPECT AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW
WED MORNING TO WIND DOWN AS THE STRONG WIND DIMINISHES. THERE
WILL LIKELY EVEN BE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS BY AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WED WILL BE SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS FROM THE UPPER
TEENS NORTH TO THE MID 20S DOWN EAST. IT WILL BE SEASONABLE COLD
WED NIGHT AND DRY AND SEASONABLE THU WITH INCREASING CLOUDS IN THE
AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES. THE NEXT LOW MOVES IN FROM
THE W THU NIGHT AND DEEPENS IN THE GULF OF MAINE FRI. AN INVERTED
TROUGH WILL LIKELY EXTEND FROM THE LOW BACK ACROSS EASTERN MAINE
FRI. THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT
SNOWFALL...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS TO THE WEST. IT LOOKS LIKE ONCE WE ARE
DONE WITH THE CURRENT STORM THAT WE COULD VERY WELL NEED ANOTHER
ROUND OF WINTER STORM WATCHES FOR THE BANGOR AND KATAHDIN
REGIONS EAST. THE LOW PULLS AWAY SAT AND SHOULD LEAVE THE AREA
DRY AND COLD. THE NEXT SYSTEM MAY BRING THE CHANCE OF YET MORE
SNOW BY MON....BUT THERE ARE MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH SOME
SOLUTIONS MORE SUPPRESSED AND SOUTH OF THE REGION. TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS FOR SUN AND MON.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: WIDESPREAD LIFR/VLIFR CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY AT ALL
TERMINALS IN SNOW. GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL RESULT IN
CONSIDERABLE BLOWING SNOW ESPECIALLY KBGR/KBHB TERMINALS. IFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT IN SNOW.

SHORT TERM: MVFR WITH POCKETS OF IFR EARLY WED MORNING SHOULD
GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO VFR BY AFTERNOON. VFR WED NIGHT AND THU.
CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY LOWER TO IFR AND EVEN VLIFR FRI IN SNOW.
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR ON SAT...EXCEPT ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TERMINALS WHERE MVFR IS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT INTO TONIGHT. A
FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY IS ALSO IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT FOR
MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY. VISIBILITY WILL BE REDUCED TO LESS THAN
1 NM THROUGH TONIGHT IN SNOW.

SHORT TERM: ONCE THE STORM WARNING COMES DOWN A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
FOR THE RESIDUAL SEAS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THROUGH AROUND 00Z THU.
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SCA LEVELS WED NIGHT THROUGH
EARLY FRI.  A GALE IS POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT AS LOW PRES PULLS EAST OF
THE WATERS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AROUND THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE. HIGH TIDE
OCCURS AT 4 AM THIS MORNING...430 PM THIS AFTERNOON...AND 5 AM
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE RECORD SNOWFALL FOR TODAY, 1/27 AT BANGOR IS 10.8"
SET IN 1963. THIS RECORD HAS A HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF BEING BROKEN.
THE RECORD AT CARIBOU IS 9.9", SET IN 1963.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MEZ001>006-
     010-011-031-032.
     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MEZ015>017-029-
     030.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MEZ029-030.
MARINE...STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ050>052.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DUDA
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM...CB
AVIATION...DUDA/CB
MARINE...DUDA/CB
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KGYX 271526 AAC
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1026 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD TO JUST SOUTH OF
NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS TODAY. THE LOW WILL LINGER AROUND THROUGH
WEDNESDAY BRINGING A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO OUR REGION. ANOTHER
STORM SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING A GENERAL SNOWFALL TO THE AREA ON
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
.UPDATE...
DEFORMATION BAND CONTINUES TO CHURN OUT INTENSE SNOWFALL ALONG
COASTAL NH AND MAINE. VERY INTENSE FRONTOGENESIS AROUND 700 MB
AND STRONG UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION IN THE SNOW GROWTH ZONE IS
HELPING TO CREATE HOURLY SNOWFALL RATES OF 3-5" PER HOUR THIS
MORNING. MEASURING THE SNOW IS PROBLEMATIC IN BLIZZARD CONDITIONS
AND HEAVY DRIFTING... HOWEVER SNOWFALL TOTALS HAVE TOPPED 20" IN
SOME PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NH AND SW MAINE ALREADY THIS MORNING.

MESOSCALE MODELS ARE CORRECT IN DEPICTING THIS STORM SLOWLY
ROTATING INLAND OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS BAND IS ALREADY
PIVOTING SLOWLY INLAND WITH THE PIVOT POINT IN EASTERN
MASSACHUSETTS. THIS FORMATION WILL CONTINUE TO DUMP HEAVY SNOW
OVER SECTIONS THAT HAVE ALREADY SEEN MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW...
ALTHOUGH IT SHOULD LIGHTEN UP AFTER THE NEXT 3 HOURS. THE BAND
SHOULD REACH A POINT WHERE IT IS CENTERED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING
FROM HARMONY...TO BETHEL... TO FRYEBURG ME... AND TOWARDS
FARMINGTON... RAYMOND... AND HAMPSTEAD NH. UNFORTUNATELY THIS BAND
MAINTAINS THROUGHOUT THE EVENING OVER THESE LOCATIONS... BEFORE
SLOWLY BREAKING APART TOWARDS MIDNIGHT. STILL... WE ARE CURRENTLY
RECEIVING THE HIGHEST RATES/AMOUNTS CURRENTLY... SO EVEN THOUGH
THE BAND WILL BE OVER THESE LOCATIONS PERHAPS LONGER... THEY
SHOULD RECEIVE SLIGHTLY LESS THAN AREAS RIGHT ON THE COAST.

HURRICANE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN HOISTED FOR THE OUTER WATERS. WE HAVE
BEEN RECEIVING REPORTS OF 55+ MPH WIND GUSTS IN SOUTHERN NH. THIS
SHOULD NOT BE HARD TO BELIEVE... DUE TO THE SNOWFALL RATES WE HAVE
BEEN SEEING... PRECIPITATION LOADING WILL CONTRIBUTE HEAVILY TO
MIXING THE VERY STRONG WINDS TO THE SURFACE. IN ADDITION WINDS IN
THE 60S AND 70S HAVE BEEN VERIFIED TO OUR SOUTH.

SHOULD GO WITHOUT SAYING...BUT TRAVEL IS ESSENTIALLY IMPOSSIBLE
FOR MUCH OF MAINE AND NH AT THIS POINT.

&&

UPDATE...HAVE ADJUSTED POP TO FOCUS CATEGORICAL ALONG INTENSE
SNWFL BAND. BUMPED TOTALS UP BENEATH THE BAND AS IT WILL BE NEARLY
STATIONARY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. MEASURING WILL BE NEARLY
IMPOSSIBLE...BUT TOP 10 SNWFL APPEARS WITHIN REACH UNDER THIS
DEFORMATION BAND. TRAVEL IS GOING TO BE NEAR IF NOT IMPOSSIBLE
GIVEN THE COMBINATION OF SNWFL RATES AND WIND GUSTS PRODUCING
WHITEOUT CONDITIONS.

INTENSE MESOSCALE DEFORMATION BAND HAS ROTATED FULLY
ONSHORE NOW. SNWFL RATES OF 2 TO 4 INCHES PER HOUR ARE OCCURRING
BENEATH THIS BAND. HAVE UPDATED SNWFL AMOUNTS IN THE PREVIOUS AND
NEXT 6 HOUR PERIODS TO GET A MORE ACCURATE UP TO DATE TOTAL
ACCUMULATION GRID TO THIS HOUR. AGAIN MORE FOCUS IS ON THE COAST
AND IMMEDIATE INTERIOR FOR HIGHER SNWFL AMOUNTS...WHILE TRIMMING
THE NRN EDGE BACK. SN IS ONLY NOW BEGINNING TO FALL IN THE
MTNS...SO AT BEST COULD ONLY HAVE AN INCH OR TWO ACCUMULATION THRU
12Z FOR THESE AREAS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS UPDATE...00Z
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS LATCHED ONTO THE IDEA OF SLIGHTLY WEAKER S/WV
FEATURE PHASING WITH THE INITIAL STORM SYSTEM THAT EXITED THE EAST
COAST YESTERDAY. THIS HAS ALLOWED THE SYSTEM TO SLIP FURTHER
E...RATHER THAN A STRONGER CAPTURE AND TUG BACK TO THE W.
GFS...CMC- REGIONAL...ECMWF...AND NAM ALL HAVE SIMILAR IDEAS
REGARDING EVOLUTION FOR THE REST OF TODAY.

SNOWFALL...

AT THIS HOUR A VERY INTENSE BAND OF SNWFL IS MORE OR LESS
PARALLELING THE COAST...AND SLOWLY INCHING NWWD. MODELED QPF HAS
BEEN KEYING ON THE COAST OR JUST INLAND FOR SEVERAL RUNS NOW.
TOSSING QPF ASIDE AND LOOKING ALOFT...NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF
FEATURE STRONG FRONTOGENESIS AT H7. WITHIN THIS BAND OF
FRONTOGENESIS THERE IS ALSO A DEFORMATION MAXIMUM. THE STRONGEST
BANDS OF SNWFL ARE FAVORED JUST ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE
DEFORMATION MAXIMUM...WITHIN THE STRONGEST FRONTOGENESIS. AS OF
THE 06-09Z PERIOD THIS IS VERIFYING NICELY. BY 12Z MODELS SUGGEST
THIS SIGNAL PIVOTS INLAND MORE...AND BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY
THRU 18Z. DURING THIS TIME BUFKIT SOUNDINGS FOR COASTAL LOCATIONS
BRIEFLY ATTEMPT TO NEAR MOIST ABSOLUTELY UNSTABLE ABOVE H7. WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE REPORTS OF THUNDER SN...BUT AT THE VERY
LEAST CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS WILL HELP TO INCREASE SNWFL RATES TO 2-4
INCHES PER HOUR AT TIMES. HAVE ADJUSTED THE HIGHEST SNWFL AMOUNTS
TOWARDS THE COAST SOME. THE OTHER FACTOR TO CONSIDER WITH SNWFL
AMOUNTS IS VERY DRY AIR IN PLACE AND JUST N OF THE FORECAST AREA.
NLY WINDS WILL ADVECT THIS AIR SWD...ERODING THE NRN EDGE OF SNWFL
AS WE/VE SEEN FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. THAT IN COMBINATION WITH THE
EWD MODEL SHIFT WILL YIELD A MUCH SHARPER SNWFL GRADIENT THAN
ORIGINALLY FORECAST. FOR NOW ONLY SIGHTLY LOWERED AMOUNTS IN THE
N...BUT SUBSEQUENT UPDATES MAY NEED MORE AGGRESSIVE LOWERING OF
TOTALS.

WINDS...

27.00Z ECWMF CONTINUED WITH THE IDEA OF ROTATING A POTENT LOW
LEVEL JET NWD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. AT 900 MB IT
INCREASED FROM ITS PREVIOUS FORECAST TO 80 KTS. GIVEN THE DEEP
COLD AIR IN PLACE...MIXING HEIGHTS ARE QUITE HIGH FOR A NOREASTER
EVEN WITH A LARGE INVERSION IN PLACE. EVEN A FRACTION OF THIS LOW
LEVEL JET MIXING DOWN...ESPECIALLY DURING THE HEAVIEST
SNWFL...YIELDS THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS ABOVE 50 KTS NEAR THE
COAST. GIVEN THAT WINDS ARE ALREADY GUSTING ABOVE 30 KTS...THIS
SEEMS ENTIRELY REASONABLE. INCREASED WIND FORECAST SLIGHTLY FROM
PREVIOUS PACKAGE. WIND POTENTIAL DECREASES FAIRLY QUICKLY THE
FURTHER INLAND ONE GOES...BUT GUSTS AROUND 25 TO 30 KTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. BASED ON BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...BEST WIND POTENTIAL WILL
OCCUR FROM THIS MORNING THRU EARLY AFTERNOON.

TEMPS...

COLD HIGH PRES TO THE N AND NLY WINDS WILL ENSURE THAT TEMPS
REMAIN FAIRLY STATIC THRU THE DAY. EXPECT THAT MUCH OF THE EVENT
WILL SEE SNWFL IN THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS. STRONG SYSTEM TO
OUR S AND THOSE NLY WINDS WILL ALSO KEEP COASTAL FRONT
OFF SHORE...AND ANY ADDITIONAL QPF ENHANCEMENT OFF SHORE TOO. COLD
TEMPS AND STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO COMBINE TO PRODUCE BITTERLY COLD
WIND CHILLS. IF STRANDED OUT IN THE STORM...THESE CONDITIONS COULD
PRODUCE A POTENTIALLY LIFE THREATENING SITUATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRES OCCLUDES AND UPPER LOW DRIFTS ACROSS THE AREA THRU WED.
THIS WILL CONTINUE -SN FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD...THOUGH INTENSITY
WILL BE FAR LESS THAN THAT EXPERIENCED TODAY. AN ADDITIONAL COUPLE
OF INCHES OF ACCUMULATIONS IS POSSIBLE. TEMPS WILL BE ON THE COOL
SIDE WITH GUSTY WLY WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE LONG WAVE PATTERN
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES EXIST
WITH TIMING AND STRENGTH OF INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES LEADING TO
DECREASED CONFIDENCE IN SENSIBLE WEATHER. THE OVERALL THEME IS
WESTERN RIDGE AND EASTERN TROUGH FOR THE CONUS...WITH AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE FOR SYNOPTIC
SNOWS ROUGHLY EVERY TWO DAYS...WITH FRIDAY - FRIDAY NIGHT...SUNDAY
NIGHT-MONDAY...THE MOST LIKELY TIME FRAMES FOR OUR FORECAST AREA
AT MOMENT. WE BEGIN THE PERIOD ON A QUIET NOTE UNDER RIDGING
SURFACE AND ALOFT THURSDAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVES BY FRIDAY
MORNING WITH A GENERAL SNOWFALL ENDING FRIDAY NIGHT. BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM...WEAK RIDGING FOLLOWS FOR SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. MORE
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM FOR SUNDAY NIGHT - MONDAY AS THE
BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD MAY REMAIN OFFSHORE.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...WIDESPREAD IFR AND LIFR IS DEVELOPING FROM SRN NH TO
COASTAL ME AT THIS HOUR. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE AS HEAVY SNWFL
BAND SLOWLY ROTATES NEWD. THIS WILL CONTINUE THRU EARLY AFTERNOON.
KLEB AND KHIE WILL BE SLOWER TO SEE IFR CONDITIONS...POSSIBLY
HOLDING OFF UNTIL MID MORNING OR LATER. COASTAL TERMINALS WILL
SEE NNELY WIND GUSTS NEAR 45 KTS AT TIMES. SNWFL WINDS DOWN BY TUE
EVENING...THOUGH PCPN LINGERS INTO WED. COULD SEE SCATTERED IFR
CONDITIONS WILL LINGERING SHSN.

LONG TERM...

FRI...MVFR IN SNOW WITH LCL IFR CONDS PSSBL.
      NW SFC WIND GUSTING TO 25 KT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...STORM WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR ALL
WATERS...EXCEPT FOR OUTER WATERS S OF CAPE ELIZABETH. HERE A
PERIOD OF 65 KT GUSTS APPEARS LIKELY...SO HAVE ISSUED A HURRICANE
FORCE WIND WARNING. ALSO MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY IS ALREADY
OCCURRING ON THE WATER BASED ON BUOY OBSERVATIONS. HAVE ISSUED A
FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY THRU WED MORNING AS A RESULT.

LONG TERM...

THU NIGHT - SAT...GALE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
LARGE...BATTERING WAVES ARE BUILDING THIS MORNING RIGHT AROUND
HIGH TIDE. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH A TWO FOOT STORM SURGE WILL
ALLOW PORTLAND AND HAMPTON TO REACH THEIR FLOOD STAGE. WINDS WILL
SWITCH TO THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON JUST PRIOR TO HIGH
TIDE...WHICH MAY REDUCE THE STORM SURGE.

USED THE NORTH ATLANTIC REGIONAL TEAM WAVE RUNUP MATRICES TO
FORECAST AND WARN FOR THE TWO HIGH TIDES TODAY. THE OUTPUT SHOWS
WAVE ACTION WILL ALLOW FOR LOCALLY SIGNIFICANT EROSION AS WELL AS
OVERWASH AT FORTUNES ROCKS...JENNIS...CAMP ELLIS AND FERRY BEACHES
IN MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE.

NERACOOS SPLASH-OVER NOMOGRAMS ALSO SHOWING SIGNIFICANT ISSUES AT
THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE FOR THE BEACHES SOUTH OF PORTLAND.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MEZ007>009-
     012>014.
     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MEZ018>028.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     MEZ025>028.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MEZ023-
     024.
NH...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NHZ002>009-
     011-015.
     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NHZ010-012>014.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NHZ001.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NHZ014.
MARINE...STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ151-153.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ150>154.
     HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HANES
SHORT TERM...LEGRO
LONG TERM...SCHWIBS



000
FXUS61 KGYX 271526 AAC
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1026 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD TO JUST SOUTH OF
NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS TODAY. THE LOW WILL LINGER AROUND THROUGH
WEDNESDAY BRINGING A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO OUR REGION. ANOTHER
STORM SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING A GENERAL SNOWFALL TO THE AREA ON
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
.UPDATE...
DEFORMATION BAND CONTINUES TO CHURN OUT INTENSE SNOWFALL ALONG
COASTAL NH AND MAINE. VERY INTENSE FRONTOGENESIS AROUND 700 MB
AND STRONG UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION IN THE SNOW GROWTH ZONE IS
HELPING TO CREATE HOURLY SNOWFALL RATES OF 3-5" PER HOUR THIS
MORNING. MEASURING THE SNOW IS PROBLEMATIC IN BLIZZARD CONDITIONS
AND HEAVY DRIFTING... HOWEVER SNOWFALL TOTALS HAVE TOPPED 20" IN
SOME PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NH AND SW MAINE ALREADY THIS MORNING.

MESOSCALE MODELS ARE CORRECT IN DEPICTING THIS STORM SLOWLY
ROTATING INLAND OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS BAND IS ALREADY
PIVOTING SLOWLY INLAND WITH THE PIVOT POINT IN EASTERN
MASSACHUSETTS. THIS FORMATION WILL CONTINUE TO DUMP HEAVY SNOW
OVER SECTIONS THAT HAVE ALREADY SEEN MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW...
ALTHOUGH IT SHOULD LIGHTEN UP AFTER THE NEXT 3 HOURS. THE BAND
SHOULD REACH A POINT WHERE IT IS CENTERED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING
FROM HARMONY...TO BETHEL... TO FRYEBURG ME... AND TOWARDS
FARMINGTON... RAYMOND... AND HAMPSTEAD NH. UNFORTUNATELY THIS BAND
MAINTAINS THROUGHOUT THE EVENING OVER THESE LOCATIONS... BEFORE
SLOWLY BREAKING APART TOWARDS MIDNIGHT. STILL... WE ARE CURRENTLY
RECEIVING THE HIGHEST RATES/AMOUNTS CURRENTLY... SO EVEN THOUGH
THE BAND WILL BE OVER THESE LOCATIONS PERHAPS LONGER... THEY
SHOULD RECEIVE SLIGHTLY LESS THAN AREAS RIGHT ON THE COAST.

HURRICANE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN HOISTED FOR THE OUTER WATERS. WE HAVE
BEEN RECEIVING REPORTS OF 55+ MPH WIND GUSTS IN SOUTHERN NH. THIS
SHOULD NOT BE HARD TO BELIEVE... DUE TO THE SNOWFALL RATES WE HAVE
BEEN SEEING... PRECIPITATION LOADING WILL CONTRIBUTE HEAVILY TO
MIXING THE VERY STRONG WINDS TO THE SURFACE. IN ADDITION WINDS IN
THE 60S AND 70S HAVE BEEN VERIFIED TO OUR SOUTH.

SHOULD GO WITHOUT SAYING...BUT TRAVEL IS ESSENTIALLY IMPOSSIBLE
FOR MUCH OF MAINE AND NH AT THIS POINT.

&&

UPDATE...HAVE ADJUSTED POP TO FOCUS CATEGORICAL ALONG INTENSE
SNWFL BAND. BUMPED TOTALS UP BENEATH THE BAND AS IT WILL BE NEARLY
STATIONARY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. MEASURING WILL BE NEARLY
IMPOSSIBLE...BUT TOP 10 SNWFL APPEARS WITHIN REACH UNDER THIS
DEFORMATION BAND. TRAVEL IS GOING TO BE NEAR IF NOT IMPOSSIBLE
GIVEN THE COMBINATION OF SNWFL RATES AND WIND GUSTS PRODUCING
WHITEOUT CONDITIONS.

INTENSE MESOSCALE DEFORMATION BAND HAS ROTATED FULLY
ONSHORE NOW. SNWFL RATES OF 2 TO 4 INCHES PER HOUR ARE OCCURRING
BENEATH THIS BAND. HAVE UPDATED SNWFL AMOUNTS IN THE PREVIOUS AND
NEXT 6 HOUR PERIODS TO GET A MORE ACCURATE UP TO DATE TOTAL
ACCUMULATION GRID TO THIS HOUR. AGAIN MORE FOCUS IS ON THE COAST
AND IMMEDIATE INTERIOR FOR HIGHER SNWFL AMOUNTS...WHILE TRIMMING
THE NRN EDGE BACK. SN IS ONLY NOW BEGINNING TO FALL IN THE
MTNS...SO AT BEST COULD ONLY HAVE AN INCH OR TWO ACCUMULATION THRU
12Z FOR THESE AREAS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS UPDATE...00Z
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS LATCHED ONTO THE IDEA OF SLIGHTLY WEAKER S/WV
FEATURE PHASING WITH THE INITIAL STORM SYSTEM THAT EXITED THE EAST
COAST YESTERDAY. THIS HAS ALLOWED THE SYSTEM TO SLIP FURTHER
E...RATHER THAN A STRONGER CAPTURE AND TUG BACK TO THE W.
GFS...CMC- REGIONAL...ECMWF...AND NAM ALL HAVE SIMILAR IDEAS
REGARDING EVOLUTION FOR THE REST OF TODAY.

SNOWFALL...

AT THIS HOUR A VERY INTENSE BAND OF SNWFL IS MORE OR LESS
PARALLELING THE COAST...AND SLOWLY INCHING NWWD. MODELED QPF HAS
BEEN KEYING ON THE COAST OR JUST INLAND FOR SEVERAL RUNS NOW.
TOSSING QPF ASIDE AND LOOKING ALOFT...NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF
FEATURE STRONG FRONTOGENESIS AT H7. WITHIN THIS BAND OF
FRONTOGENESIS THERE IS ALSO A DEFORMATION MAXIMUM. THE STRONGEST
BANDS OF SNWFL ARE FAVORED JUST ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE
DEFORMATION MAXIMUM...WITHIN THE STRONGEST FRONTOGENESIS. AS OF
THE 06-09Z PERIOD THIS IS VERIFYING NICELY. BY 12Z MODELS SUGGEST
THIS SIGNAL PIVOTS INLAND MORE...AND BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY
THRU 18Z. DURING THIS TIME BUFKIT SOUNDINGS FOR COASTAL LOCATIONS
BRIEFLY ATTEMPT TO NEAR MOIST ABSOLUTELY UNSTABLE ABOVE H7. WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE REPORTS OF THUNDER SN...BUT AT THE VERY
LEAST CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS WILL HELP TO INCREASE SNWFL RATES TO 2-4
INCHES PER HOUR AT TIMES. HAVE ADJUSTED THE HIGHEST SNWFL AMOUNTS
TOWARDS THE COAST SOME. THE OTHER FACTOR TO CONSIDER WITH SNWFL
AMOUNTS IS VERY DRY AIR IN PLACE AND JUST N OF THE FORECAST AREA.
NLY WINDS WILL ADVECT THIS AIR SWD...ERODING THE NRN EDGE OF SNWFL
AS WE/VE SEEN FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. THAT IN COMBINATION WITH THE
EWD MODEL SHIFT WILL YIELD A MUCH SHARPER SNWFL GRADIENT THAN
ORIGINALLY FORECAST. FOR NOW ONLY SIGHTLY LOWERED AMOUNTS IN THE
N...BUT SUBSEQUENT UPDATES MAY NEED MORE AGGRESSIVE LOWERING OF
TOTALS.

WINDS...

27.00Z ECWMF CONTINUED WITH THE IDEA OF ROTATING A POTENT LOW
LEVEL JET NWD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. AT 900 MB IT
INCREASED FROM ITS PREVIOUS FORECAST TO 80 KTS. GIVEN THE DEEP
COLD AIR IN PLACE...MIXING HEIGHTS ARE QUITE HIGH FOR A NOREASTER
EVEN WITH A LARGE INVERSION IN PLACE. EVEN A FRACTION OF THIS LOW
LEVEL JET MIXING DOWN...ESPECIALLY DURING THE HEAVIEST
SNWFL...YIELDS THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS ABOVE 50 KTS NEAR THE
COAST. GIVEN THAT WINDS ARE ALREADY GUSTING ABOVE 30 KTS...THIS
SEEMS ENTIRELY REASONABLE. INCREASED WIND FORECAST SLIGHTLY FROM
PREVIOUS PACKAGE. WIND POTENTIAL DECREASES FAIRLY QUICKLY THE
FURTHER INLAND ONE GOES...BUT GUSTS AROUND 25 TO 30 KTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. BASED ON BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...BEST WIND POTENTIAL WILL
OCCUR FROM THIS MORNING THRU EARLY AFTERNOON.

TEMPS...

COLD HIGH PRES TO THE N AND NLY WINDS WILL ENSURE THAT TEMPS
REMAIN FAIRLY STATIC THRU THE DAY. EXPECT THAT MUCH OF THE EVENT
WILL SEE SNWFL IN THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS. STRONG SYSTEM TO
OUR S AND THOSE NLY WINDS WILL ALSO KEEP COASTAL FRONT
OFF SHORE...AND ANY ADDITIONAL QPF ENHANCEMENT OFF SHORE TOO. COLD
TEMPS AND STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO COMBINE TO PRODUCE BITTERLY COLD
WIND CHILLS. IF STRANDED OUT IN THE STORM...THESE CONDITIONS COULD
PRODUCE A POTENTIALLY LIFE THREATENING SITUATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRES OCCLUDES AND UPPER LOW DRIFTS ACROSS THE AREA THRU WED.
THIS WILL CONTINUE -SN FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD...THOUGH INTENSITY
WILL BE FAR LESS THAN THAT EXPERIENCED TODAY. AN ADDITIONAL COUPLE
OF INCHES OF ACCUMULATIONS IS POSSIBLE. TEMPS WILL BE ON THE COOL
SIDE WITH GUSTY WLY WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE LONG WAVE PATTERN
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES EXIST
WITH TIMING AND STRENGTH OF INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES LEADING TO
DECREASED CONFIDENCE IN SENSIBLE WEATHER. THE OVERALL THEME IS
WESTERN RIDGE AND EASTERN TROUGH FOR THE CONUS...WITH AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE FOR SYNOPTIC
SNOWS ROUGHLY EVERY TWO DAYS...WITH FRIDAY - FRIDAY NIGHT...SUNDAY
NIGHT-MONDAY...THE MOST LIKELY TIME FRAMES FOR OUR FORECAST AREA
AT MOMENT. WE BEGIN THE PERIOD ON A QUIET NOTE UNDER RIDGING
SURFACE AND ALOFT THURSDAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVES BY FRIDAY
MORNING WITH A GENERAL SNOWFALL ENDING FRIDAY NIGHT. BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM...WEAK RIDGING FOLLOWS FOR SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. MORE
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM FOR SUNDAY NIGHT - MONDAY AS THE
BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD MAY REMAIN OFFSHORE.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...WIDESPREAD IFR AND LIFR IS DEVELOPING FROM SRN NH TO
COASTAL ME AT THIS HOUR. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE AS HEAVY SNWFL
BAND SLOWLY ROTATES NEWD. THIS WILL CONTINUE THRU EARLY AFTERNOON.
KLEB AND KHIE WILL BE SLOWER TO SEE IFR CONDITIONS...POSSIBLY
HOLDING OFF UNTIL MID MORNING OR LATER. COASTAL TERMINALS WILL
SEE NNELY WIND GUSTS NEAR 45 KTS AT TIMES. SNWFL WINDS DOWN BY TUE
EVENING...THOUGH PCPN LINGERS INTO WED. COULD SEE SCATTERED IFR
CONDITIONS WILL LINGERING SHSN.

LONG TERM...

FRI...MVFR IN SNOW WITH LCL IFR CONDS PSSBL.
      NW SFC WIND GUSTING TO 25 KT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...STORM WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR ALL
WATERS...EXCEPT FOR OUTER WATERS S OF CAPE ELIZABETH. HERE A
PERIOD OF 65 KT GUSTS APPEARS LIKELY...SO HAVE ISSUED A HURRICANE
FORCE WIND WARNING. ALSO MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY IS ALREADY
OCCURRING ON THE WATER BASED ON BUOY OBSERVATIONS. HAVE ISSUED A
FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY THRU WED MORNING AS A RESULT.

LONG TERM...

THU NIGHT - SAT...GALE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
LARGE...BATTERING WAVES ARE BUILDING THIS MORNING RIGHT AROUND
HIGH TIDE. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH A TWO FOOT STORM SURGE WILL
ALLOW PORTLAND AND HAMPTON TO REACH THEIR FLOOD STAGE. WINDS WILL
SWITCH TO THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON JUST PRIOR TO HIGH
TIDE...WHICH MAY REDUCE THE STORM SURGE.

USED THE NORTH ATLANTIC REGIONAL TEAM WAVE RUNUP MATRICES TO
FORECAST AND WARN FOR THE TWO HIGH TIDES TODAY. THE OUTPUT SHOWS
WAVE ACTION WILL ALLOW FOR LOCALLY SIGNIFICANT EROSION AS WELL AS
OVERWASH AT FORTUNES ROCKS...JENNIS...CAMP ELLIS AND FERRY BEACHES
IN MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE.

NERACOOS SPLASH-OVER NOMOGRAMS ALSO SHOWING SIGNIFICANT ISSUES AT
THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE FOR THE BEACHES SOUTH OF PORTLAND.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MEZ007>009-
     012>014.
     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MEZ018>028.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     MEZ025>028.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MEZ023-
     024.
NH...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NHZ002>009-
     011-015.
     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NHZ010-012>014.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NHZ001.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NHZ014.
MARINE...STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ151-153.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ150>154.
     HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HANES
SHORT TERM...LEGRO
LONG TERM...SCHWIBS




000
FXUS61 KCAR 271410
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
910 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF CAPE COD THIS MORNING WILL MOVE INTO
THE GULF OF MAINE THIS EVENING AND ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA WEDNESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

9 AM UPDATE...VERY HEAVY SNOW IS OCCURRING DOWNEAST WHERE
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE WIDESPREAD. SNOW HAS REACH SOUTHWESTERN
AROOSTOOK COUNTY AND WILL BE SLOWLY PUSHING INTO NORTHERN
AROOSTOOK COUNTY DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. FORECAST REMAINS ON
TRACK FOR HEAVIEST SNOW DOWNEAST WITH MORE MODERATE AMOUNTS ACROSS
THE FAR NORTH.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
WINTER STORM WARNINGS REMAIN UP FOR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS WITH
A BLIZZARD WARNING FOR ALL OF INTERIOR AND COASTAL DOWN EAST MAINE.
THE LATEST MSAS ANALYSIS SHOWS A 983 MB LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ABOUT
150 MILES SOUTH OF CAPE COD. THIS LOW WILL LIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST
TODAY AND ACROSS SOUTHWEST NOVA SCOTIA LATE TONIGHT. LATEST RADAR
IMAGERY SHOWS THE LEADING EDGE OF THE SNOW BEGINNING TO WORK NORTH
INTO DOWN EAST MAINE AS OF THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. EXPECT THE SNOW TO
CONTINUE TO EXPAND NORTH ACROSS THE REGION BY LATER THIS MORNING.
THE SNOW WILL BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES TODAY. AS THE LOW CONTINUES
TO TRACK OFF TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY EXPECT GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS
TO PRODUCE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW WITH WHITEOUT/BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS EXPECTED ESPECIALLY ACROSS DOWN EAST AREAS. LIGHTER
SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT BUT GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO RESULT IN BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. SNOWFALL TOTALS
THROUGH TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 6 TO 10 INCHES ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS WITH 12 TO 18 INCHES ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWN EAST
AREAS...WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE CLOSER TO
THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A DOUBLE BARRELED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CONSISTING OF THE THE DEEP
LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE NOR`EASTER AND A SECOND TRIPLE POINT LOW
WILL BE FOUND ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA AND THE SOUTHERN TIP OF LABRADOR
AT 12Z WED. THE LOWS WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY WED AS HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY MOVES EAST. THE HIGH WILL CREST OVER
NEW ENGLAND BY 12Z THU AND MOVE OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD DURING
THE DAY THU. LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH FROM THE W AND
WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN QUEBEC AND WESTERN NY STATE BY 00Z FRI.

AS FAR AS THE SENSIBLE WEATHER GOES...WE EXPECT AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW
WED MORNING TO WIND DOWN AS THE STRONG WIND DIMINISHES. THERE
WILL LIKELY EVEN BE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS BY AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WED WILL BE SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS FROM THE UPPER
TEENS NORTH TO THE MID 20S DOWN EAST. IT WILL BE SEASONABLE COLD
WED NIGHT AND DRY AND SEASONABLE THU WITH INCREASING CLOUDS IN THE
AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES. THE NEXT LOW MOVES IN FROM
THE W THU NIGHT AND DEEPENS IN THE GULF OF MAINE FRI. AN INVERTED
TROUGH WILL LIKELY EXTEND FROM THE LOW BACK ACROSS EASTERN MAINE
FRI. THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT
SNOWFALL...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS TO THE WEST. IT LOOKS LIKE ONCE WE ARE
DONE WITH THE CURRENT STORM THAT WE COULD VERY WELL NEED ANOTHER
ROUND OF WINTER STORM WATCHES FOR THE BANGOR AND KATAHDIN
REGIONS EAST. THE LOW PULLS AWAY SAT AND SHOULD LEAVE THE AREA
DRY AND COLD. THE NEXT SYSTEM MAY BRING THE CHANCE OF YET MORE
SNOW BY MON....BUT THERE ARE MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH SOME
SOLUTIONS MORE SUPPRESSED AND SOUTH OF THE REGION. TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS FOR SUN AND MON.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: WIDESPREAD LIFR/VLIFR CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY AT ALL
TERMINALS IN SNOW. GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL RESULT IN
CONSIDERABLE BLOWING SNOW ESPECIALLY KBGR/KBHB TERMINALS. IFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT IN SNOW.

SHORT TERM: MVFR WITH POCKETS OF IFR EARLY WED MORNING SHOULD
GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO VFR BY AFTERNOON. VFR WED NIGHT AND THU.
CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY LOWER TO IFR AND EVEN VLIFR FRI IN SNOW.
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR ON SAT...EXCEPT ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TERMINALS WHERE MVFR IS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT INTO TONIGHT. A
FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY IS ALSO IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT FOR
MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY. VISIBILITY WILL BE REDUCED TO LESS THAN
1 NM THROUGH TONIGHT IN SNOW.

SHORT TERM: ONCE THE STORM WARNING COMES DOWN A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
FOR THE RESIDUAL SEAS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THROUGH AROUND 00Z THU.
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SCA LEVELS WED NIGHT THROUGH
EARLY FRI.  A GALE IS POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT AS LOW PRES PULLS EAST OF
THE WATERS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AROUND THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE. HIGH TIDE
OCCURS AT 4 AM THIS MORNING...430 PM THIS AFTERNOON...AND 5 AM
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE RECORD SNOWFALL FOR TODAY, 1/27 AT BANGOR IS 10.8"
SET IN 1963. THIS RECORD HAS A HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF BEING BROKEN.
THE RECORD AT CARIBOU IS 9.9", SET IN 1963.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MEZ001>006-
     010-011-031-032.
     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MEZ015>017-029-
     030.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MEZ029-030.
MARINE...STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ050>052.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DUDA
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM...CB
AVIATION...DUDA/CB
MARINE...DUDA/CB
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CLIMATE...CB



000
FXUS61 KCAR 271410
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
910 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF CAPE COD THIS MORNING WILL MOVE INTO
THE GULF OF MAINE THIS EVENING AND ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA WEDNESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

9 AM UPDATE...VERY HEAVY SNOW IS OCCURRING DOWNEAST WHERE
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE WIDESPREAD. SNOW HAS REACH SOUTHWESTERN
AROOSTOOK COUNTY AND WILL BE SLOWLY PUSHING INTO NORTHERN
AROOSTOOK COUNTY DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. FORECAST REMAINS ON
TRACK FOR HEAVIEST SNOW DOWNEAST WITH MORE MODERATE AMOUNTS ACROSS
THE FAR NORTH.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
WINTER STORM WARNINGS REMAIN UP FOR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS WITH
A BLIZZARD WARNING FOR ALL OF INTERIOR AND COASTAL DOWN EAST MAINE.
THE LATEST MSAS ANALYSIS SHOWS A 983 MB LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ABOUT
150 MILES SOUTH OF CAPE COD. THIS LOW WILL LIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST
TODAY AND ACROSS SOUTHWEST NOVA SCOTIA LATE TONIGHT. LATEST RADAR
IMAGERY SHOWS THE LEADING EDGE OF THE SNOW BEGINNING TO WORK NORTH
INTO DOWN EAST MAINE AS OF THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. EXPECT THE SNOW TO
CONTINUE TO EXPAND NORTH ACROSS THE REGION BY LATER THIS MORNING.
THE SNOW WILL BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES TODAY. AS THE LOW CONTINUES
TO TRACK OFF TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY EXPECT GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS
TO PRODUCE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW WITH WHITEOUT/BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS EXPECTED ESPECIALLY ACROSS DOWN EAST AREAS. LIGHTER
SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT BUT GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO RESULT IN BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. SNOWFALL TOTALS
THROUGH TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 6 TO 10 INCHES ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS WITH 12 TO 18 INCHES ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWN EAST
AREAS...WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE CLOSER TO
THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A DOUBLE BARRELED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CONSISTING OF THE THE DEEP
LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE NOR`EASTER AND A SECOND TRIPLE POINT LOW
WILL BE FOUND ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA AND THE SOUTHERN TIP OF LABRADOR
AT 12Z WED. THE LOWS WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY WED AS HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY MOVES EAST. THE HIGH WILL CREST OVER
NEW ENGLAND BY 12Z THU AND MOVE OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD DURING
THE DAY THU. LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH FROM THE W AND
WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN QUEBEC AND WESTERN NY STATE BY 00Z FRI.

AS FAR AS THE SENSIBLE WEATHER GOES...WE EXPECT AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW
WED MORNING TO WIND DOWN AS THE STRONG WIND DIMINISHES. THERE
WILL LIKELY EVEN BE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS BY AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WED WILL BE SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS FROM THE UPPER
TEENS NORTH TO THE MID 20S DOWN EAST. IT WILL BE SEASONABLE COLD
WED NIGHT AND DRY AND SEASONABLE THU WITH INCREASING CLOUDS IN THE
AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES. THE NEXT LOW MOVES IN FROM
THE W THU NIGHT AND DEEPENS IN THE GULF OF MAINE FRI. AN INVERTED
TROUGH WILL LIKELY EXTEND FROM THE LOW BACK ACROSS EASTERN MAINE
FRI. THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT
SNOWFALL...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS TO THE WEST. IT LOOKS LIKE ONCE WE ARE
DONE WITH THE CURRENT STORM THAT WE COULD VERY WELL NEED ANOTHER
ROUND OF WINTER STORM WATCHES FOR THE BANGOR AND KATAHDIN
REGIONS EAST. THE LOW PULLS AWAY SAT AND SHOULD LEAVE THE AREA
DRY AND COLD. THE NEXT SYSTEM MAY BRING THE CHANCE OF YET MORE
SNOW BY MON....BUT THERE ARE MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH SOME
SOLUTIONS MORE SUPPRESSED AND SOUTH OF THE REGION. TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS FOR SUN AND MON.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: WIDESPREAD LIFR/VLIFR CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY AT ALL
TERMINALS IN SNOW. GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL RESULT IN
CONSIDERABLE BLOWING SNOW ESPECIALLY KBGR/KBHB TERMINALS. IFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT IN SNOW.

SHORT TERM: MVFR WITH POCKETS OF IFR EARLY WED MORNING SHOULD
GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO VFR BY AFTERNOON. VFR WED NIGHT AND THU.
CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY LOWER TO IFR AND EVEN VLIFR FRI IN SNOW.
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR ON SAT...EXCEPT ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TERMINALS WHERE MVFR IS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT INTO TONIGHT. A
FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY IS ALSO IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT FOR
MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY. VISIBILITY WILL BE REDUCED TO LESS THAN
1 NM THROUGH TONIGHT IN SNOW.

SHORT TERM: ONCE THE STORM WARNING COMES DOWN A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
FOR THE RESIDUAL SEAS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THROUGH AROUND 00Z THU.
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SCA LEVELS WED NIGHT THROUGH
EARLY FRI.  A GALE IS POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT AS LOW PRES PULLS EAST OF
THE WATERS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AROUND THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE. HIGH TIDE
OCCURS AT 4 AM THIS MORNING...430 PM THIS AFTERNOON...AND 5 AM
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE RECORD SNOWFALL FOR TODAY, 1/27 AT BANGOR IS 10.8"
SET IN 1963. THIS RECORD HAS A HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF BEING BROKEN.
THE RECORD AT CARIBOU IS 9.9", SET IN 1963.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MEZ001>006-
     010-011-031-032.
     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MEZ015>017-029-
     030.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MEZ029-030.
MARINE...STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ050>052.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DUDA
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM...CB
AVIATION...DUDA/CB
MARINE...DUDA/CB
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CLIMATE...CB




000
FXUS61 KGYX 271253 AAB
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
753 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD TO JUST SOUTH OF
NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS TODAY. THE LOW WILL LINGER AROUND THROUGH
WEDNESDAY BRINGING A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO OUR REGION. ANOTHER
STORM SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING A GENERAL SNOWFALL TO THE AREA ON
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...HAVE ADJUSTED POP TO FOCUS CATEGORICAL ALONG INTENSE
SNWFL BAND. BUMPED TOTALS UP BENEATH THE BAND AS IT WILL BE NEARLY
STATIONARY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. MEASURING WILL BE NEARLY
IMPOSSIBLE...BUT TOP 10 SNWFL APPEARS WITHIN REACH UNDER THIS
DEFORMATION BAND. TRAVEL IS GOING TO BE NEAR IF NOT IMPOSSIBLE
GIVEN THE COMBINATION OF SNWFL RATES AND WIND GUSTS PRODUCING
WHITEOUT CONDITIONS.

INTENSE MESOSCALE DEFORMATION BAND HAS ROTATED FULLY
ONSHORE NOW. SNWFL RATES OF 2 TO 4 INCHES PER HOUR ARE OCCURRING
BENEATH THIS BAND. HAVE UPDATED SNWFL AMOUNTS IN THE PREVIOUS AND
NEXT 6 HOUR PERIODS TO GET A MORE ACCURATE UP TO DATE TOTAL
ACCUMULATION GRID TO THIS HOUR. AGAIN MORE FOCUS IS ON THE COAST
AND IMMEDIATE INTERIOR FOR HIGHER SNWFL AMOUNTS...WHILE TRIMMING
THE NRN EDGE BACK. SN IS ONLY NOW BEGINNING TO FALL IN THE
MTNS...SO AT BEST COULD ONLY HAVE AN INCH OR TWO ACCUMULATION THRU
12Z FOR THESE AREAS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS UPDATE...00Z
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS LATCHED ONTO THE IDEA OF SLIGHTLY WEAKER S/WV
FEATURE PHASING WITH THE INITIAL STORM SYSTEM THAT EXITED THE EAST
COAST YESTERDAY. THIS HAS ALLOWED THE SYSTEM TO SLIP FURTHER
E...RATHER THAN A STRONGER CAPTURE AND TUG BACK TO THE W.
GFS...CMC- REGIONAL...ECMWF...AND NAM ALL HAVE SIMILAR IDEAS
REGARDING EVOLUTION FOR THE REST OF TODAY.

SNOWFALL...

AT THIS HOUR A VERY INTENSE BAND OF SNWFL IS MORE OR LESS
PARALLELING THE COAST...AND SLOWLY INCHING NWWD. MODELED QPF HAS
BEEN KEYING ON THE COAST OR JUST INLAND FOR SEVERAL RUNS NOW.
TOSSING QPF ASIDE AND LOOKING ALOFT...NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF
FEATURE STRONG FRONTOGENESIS AT H7. WITHIN THIS BAND OF
FRONTOGENESIS THERE IS ALSO A DEFORMATION MAXIMUM. THE STRONGEST
BANDS OF SNWFL ARE FAVORED JUST ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE
DEFORMATION MAXIMUM...WITHIN THE STRONGEST FRONTOGENESIS. AS OF
THE 06-09Z PERIOD THIS IS VERIFYING NICELY. BY 12Z MODELS SUGGEST
THIS SIGNAL PIVOTS INLAND MORE...AND BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY
THRU 18Z. DURING THIS TIME BUFKIT SOUNDINGS FOR COASTAL LOCATIONS
BRIEFLY ATTEMPT TO NEAR MOIST ABSOLUTELY UNSTABLE ABOVE H7. WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE REPORTS OF THUNDER SN...BUT AT THE VERY
LEAST CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS WILL HELP TO INCREASE SNWFL RATES TO 2-4
INCHES PER HOUR AT TIMES. HAVE ADJUSTED THE HIGHEST SNWFL AMOUNTS
TOWARDS THE COAST SOME. THE OTHER FACTOR TO CONSIDER WITH SNWFL
AMOUNTS IS VERY DRY AIR IN PLACE AND JUST N OF THE FORECAST AREA.
NLY WINDS WILL ADVECT THIS AIR SWD...ERODING THE NRN EDGE OF SNWFL
AS WE/VE SEEN FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. THAT IN COMBINATION WITH THE
EWD MODEL SHIFT WILL YIELD A MUCH SHARPER SNWFL GRADIENT THAN
ORIGINALLY FORECAST. FOR NOW ONLY SIGHTLY LOWERED AMOUNTS IN THE
N...BUT SUBSEQUENT UPDATES MAY NEED MORE AGGRESSIVE LOWERING OF
TOTALS.

WINDS...

27.00Z ECWMF CONTINUED WITH THE IDEA OF ROTATING A POTENT LOW
LEVEL JET NWD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. AT 900 MB IT
INCREASED FROM ITS PREVIOUS FORECAST TO 80 KTS. GIVEN THE DEEP
COLD AIR IN PLACE...MIXING HEIGHTS ARE QUITE HIGH FOR A NOREASTER
EVEN WITH A LARGE INVERSION IN PLACE. EVEN A FRACTION OF THIS LOW
LEVEL JET MIXING DOWN...ESPECIALLY DURING THE HEAVIEST
SNWFL...YIELDS THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS ABOVE 50 KTS NEAR THE
COAST. GIVEN THAT WINDS ARE ALREADY GUSTING ABOVE 30 KTS...THIS
SEEMS ENTIRELY REASONABLE. INCREASED WIND FORECAST SLIGHTLY FROM
PREVIOUS PACKAGE. WIND POTENTIAL DECREASES FAIRLY QUICKLY THE
FURTHER INLAND ONE GOES...BUT GUSTS AROUND 25 TO 30 KTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. BASED ON BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...BEST WIND POTENTIAL WILL
OCCUR FROM THIS MORNING THRU EARLY AFTERNOON.

TEMPS...

COLD HIGH PRES TO THE N AND NLY WINDS WILL ENSURE THAT TEMPS
REMAIN FAIRLY STATIC THRU THE DAY. EXPECT THAT MUCH OF THE EVENT
WILL SEE SNWFL IN THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS. STRONG SYSTEM TO
OUR S AND THOSE NLY WINDS WILL ALSO KEEP COASTAL FRONT
OFF SHORE...AND ANY ADDITIONAL QPF ENHANCEMENT OFF SHORE TOO. COLD
TEMPS AND STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO COMBINE TO PRODUCE BITTERLY COLD
WIND CHILLS. IF STRANDED OUT IN THE STORM...THESE CONDITIONS COULD
PRODUCE A POTENTIALLY LIFE THREATENING SITUATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRES OCCLUDES AND UPPER LOW DRIFTS ACROSS THE AREA THRU WED.
THIS WILL CONTINUE -SN FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD...THOUGH INTENSITY
WILL BE FAR LESS THAN THAT EXPERIENCED TODAY. AN ADDITIONAL COUPLE
OF INCHES OF ACCUMULATIONS IS POSSIBLE. TEMPS WILL BE ON THE COOL
SIDE WITH GUSTY WLY WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE LONG WAVE PATTERN
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES EXIST
WITH TIMING AND STRENGTH OF INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES LEADING TO
DECREASED CONFIDENCE IN SENSIBLE WEATHER. THE OVERALL THEME IS
WESTERN RIDGE AND EASTERN TROUGH FOR THE CONUS...WITH AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE FOR SYNOPTIC
SNOWS ROUGHLY EVERY TWO DAYS...WITH FRIDAY - FRIDAY NIGHT...SUNDAY
NIGHT-MONDAY...THE MOST LIKELY TIME FRAMES FOR OUR FORECAST AREA
AT MOMENT. WE BEGIN THE PERIOD ON A QUIET NOTE UNDER RIDGING
SURFACE AND ALOFT THURSDAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVES BY FRIDAY
MORNING WITH A GENERAL SNOWFALL ENDING FRIDAY NIGHT. BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM...WEAK RIDGING FOLLOWS FOR SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. MORE
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM FOR SUNDAY NIGHT - MONDAY AS THE
BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD MAY REMAIN OFFSHORE.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...WIDESPREAD IFR AND LIFR IS DEVELOPING FROM SRN NH TO
COASTAL ME AT THIS HOUR. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE AS HEAVY SNWFL
BAND SLOWLY ROTATES NEWD. THIS WILL CONTINUE THRU EARLY AFTERNOON.
KLEB AND KHIE WILL BE SLOWER TO SEE IFR CONDITIONS...POSSIBLY
HOLDING OFF UNTIL MID MORNING OR LATER. COASTAL TERMINALS WILL
SEE NNELY WIND GUSTS NEAR 45 KTS AT TIMES. SNWFL WINDS DOWN BY TUE
EVENING...THOUGH PCPN LINGERS INTO WED. COULD SEE SCATTERED IFR
CONDITIONS WILL LINGERING SHSN.

LONG TERM...

FRI...MVFR IN SNOW WITH LCL IFR CONDS PSSBL.
      NW SFC WIND GUSTING TO 25 KT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...STORM WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR ALL
WATERS...EXCEPT FOR OUTER WATERS S OF CAPE ELIZABETH. HERE A
PERIOD OF 65 KT GUSTS APPEARS LIKELY...SO HAVE ISSUED A HURRICANE
FORCE WIND WARNING. ALSO MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY IS ALREADY
OCCURRING ON THE WATER BASED ON BUOY OBSERVATIONS. HAVE ISSUED A
FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY THRU WED MORNING AS A RESULT.

LONG TERM...

THU NIGHT - SAT...GALE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
LARGE...BATTERING WAVES ARE BUILDING THIS MORNING RIGHT AROUND
HIGH TIDE. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH A TWO FOOT STORM SURGE WILL
ALLOW PORTLAND AND HAMPTON TO REACH THEIR FLOOD STAGE. WINDS WILL
SWITCH TO THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON JUST PRIOR TO HIGH
TIDE...WHICH MAY REDUCE THE STORM SURGE.

USED THE NORTH ATLANTIC REGIONAL TEAM WAVE RUNUP MATRICES TO
FORECAST AND WARN FOR THE TWO HIGH TIDES TODAY. THE OUTPUT SHOWS
WAVE ACTION WILL ALLOW FOR LOCALLY SIGNIFICANT EROSION AS WELL AS
OVERWASH AT FORTUNES ROCKS...JENNIS...CAMP ELLIS AND FERRY BEACHES
IN MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE.

NERACOOS SPLASH-OVER NOMOGRAMS ALSO SHOWING SIGNIFICANT ISSUES AT
THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE FOR THE BEACHES SOUTH OF PORTLAND.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MEZ007>009-
     012>014.
     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MEZ018>028.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     MEZ025>028.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MEZ023-
     024.
NH...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NHZ002>009-
     011-015.
     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NHZ010-012>014.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NHZ001.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NHZ014.
MARINE...STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ150>153.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ150>154.
     HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LEGRO




000
FXUS61 KGYX 271253 AAB
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
753 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD TO JUST SOUTH OF
NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS TODAY. THE LOW WILL LINGER AROUND THROUGH
WEDNESDAY BRINGING A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO OUR REGION. ANOTHER
STORM SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING A GENERAL SNOWFALL TO THE AREA ON
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...HAVE ADJUSTED POP TO FOCUS CATEGORICAL ALONG INTENSE
SNWFL BAND. BUMPED TOTALS UP BENEATH THE BAND AS IT WILL BE NEARLY
STATIONARY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. MEASURING WILL BE NEARLY
IMPOSSIBLE...BUT TOP 10 SNWFL APPEARS WITHIN REACH UNDER THIS
DEFORMATION BAND. TRAVEL IS GOING TO BE NEAR IF NOT IMPOSSIBLE
GIVEN THE COMBINATION OF SNWFL RATES AND WIND GUSTS PRODUCING
WHITEOUT CONDITIONS.

INTENSE MESOSCALE DEFORMATION BAND HAS ROTATED FULLY
ONSHORE NOW. SNWFL RATES OF 2 TO 4 INCHES PER HOUR ARE OCCURRING
BENEATH THIS BAND. HAVE UPDATED SNWFL AMOUNTS IN THE PREVIOUS AND
NEXT 6 HOUR PERIODS TO GET A MORE ACCURATE UP TO DATE TOTAL
ACCUMULATION GRID TO THIS HOUR. AGAIN MORE FOCUS IS ON THE COAST
AND IMMEDIATE INTERIOR FOR HIGHER SNWFL AMOUNTS...WHILE TRIMMING
THE NRN EDGE BACK. SN IS ONLY NOW BEGINNING TO FALL IN THE
MTNS...SO AT BEST COULD ONLY HAVE AN INCH OR TWO ACCUMULATION THRU
12Z FOR THESE AREAS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS UPDATE...00Z
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS LATCHED ONTO THE IDEA OF SLIGHTLY WEAKER S/WV
FEATURE PHASING WITH THE INITIAL STORM SYSTEM THAT EXITED THE EAST
COAST YESTERDAY. THIS HAS ALLOWED THE SYSTEM TO SLIP FURTHER
E...RATHER THAN A STRONGER CAPTURE AND TUG BACK TO THE W.
GFS...CMC- REGIONAL...ECMWF...AND NAM ALL HAVE SIMILAR IDEAS
REGARDING EVOLUTION FOR THE REST OF TODAY.

SNOWFALL...

AT THIS HOUR A VERY INTENSE BAND OF SNWFL IS MORE OR LESS
PARALLELING THE COAST...AND SLOWLY INCHING NWWD. MODELED QPF HAS
BEEN KEYING ON THE COAST OR JUST INLAND FOR SEVERAL RUNS NOW.
TOSSING QPF ASIDE AND LOOKING ALOFT...NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF
FEATURE STRONG FRONTOGENESIS AT H7. WITHIN THIS BAND OF
FRONTOGENESIS THERE IS ALSO A DEFORMATION MAXIMUM. THE STRONGEST
BANDS OF SNWFL ARE FAVORED JUST ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE
DEFORMATION MAXIMUM...WITHIN THE STRONGEST FRONTOGENESIS. AS OF
THE 06-09Z PERIOD THIS IS VERIFYING NICELY. BY 12Z MODELS SUGGEST
THIS SIGNAL PIVOTS INLAND MORE...AND BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY
THRU 18Z. DURING THIS TIME BUFKIT SOUNDINGS FOR COASTAL LOCATIONS
BRIEFLY ATTEMPT TO NEAR MOIST ABSOLUTELY UNSTABLE ABOVE H7. WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE REPORTS OF THUNDER SN...BUT AT THE VERY
LEAST CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS WILL HELP TO INCREASE SNWFL RATES TO 2-4
INCHES PER HOUR AT TIMES. HAVE ADJUSTED THE HIGHEST SNWFL AMOUNTS
TOWARDS THE COAST SOME. THE OTHER FACTOR TO CONSIDER WITH SNWFL
AMOUNTS IS VERY DRY AIR IN PLACE AND JUST N OF THE FORECAST AREA.
NLY WINDS WILL ADVECT THIS AIR SWD...ERODING THE NRN EDGE OF SNWFL
AS WE/VE SEEN FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. THAT IN COMBINATION WITH THE
EWD MODEL SHIFT WILL YIELD A MUCH SHARPER SNWFL GRADIENT THAN
ORIGINALLY FORECAST. FOR NOW ONLY SIGHTLY LOWERED AMOUNTS IN THE
N...BUT SUBSEQUENT UPDATES MAY NEED MORE AGGRESSIVE LOWERING OF
TOTALS.

WINDS...

27.00Z ECWMF CONTINUED WITH THE IDEA OF ROTATING A POTENT LOW
LEVEL JET NWD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. AT 900 MB IT
INCREASED FROM ITS PREVIOUS FORECAST TO 80 KTS. GIVEN THE DEEP
COLD AIR IN PLACE...MIXING HEIGHTS ARE QUITE HIGH FOR A NOREASTER
EVEN WITH A LARGE INVERSION IN PLACE. EVEN A FRACTION OF THIS LOW
LEVEL JET MIXING DOWN...ESPECIALLY DURING THE HEAVIEST
SNWFL...YIELDS THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS ABOVE 50 KTS NEAR THE
COAST. GIVEN THAT WINDS ARE ALREADY GUSTING ABOVE 30 KTS...THIS
SEEMS ENTIRELY REASONABLE. INCREASED WIND FORECAST SLIGHTLY FROM
PREVIOUS PACKAGE. WIND POTENTIAL DECREASES FAIRLY QUICKLY THE
FURTHER INLAND ONE GOES...BUT GUSTS AROUND 25 TO 30 KTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. BASED ON BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...BEST WIND POTENTIAL WILL
OCCUR FROM THIS MORNING THRU EARLY AFTERNOON.

TEMPS...

COLD HIGH PRES TO THE N AND NLY WINDS WILL ENSURE THAT TEMPS
REMAIN FAIRLY STATIC THRU THE DAY. EXPECT THAT MUCH OF THE EVENT
WILL SEE SNWFL IN THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS. STRONG SYSTEM TO
OUR S AND THOSE NLY WINDS WILL ALSO KEEP COASTAL FRONT
OFF SHORE...AND ANY ADDITIONAL QPF ENHANCEMENT OFF SHORE TOO. COLD
TEMPS AND STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO COMBINE TO PRODUCE BITTERLY COLD
WIND CHILLS. IF STRANDED OUT IN THE STORM...THESE CONDITIONS COULD
PRODUCE A POTENTIALLY LIFE THREATENING SITUATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRES OCCLUDES AND UPPER LOW DRIFTS ACROSS THE AREA THRU WED.
THIS WILL CONTINUE -SN FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD...THOUGH INTENSITY
WILL BE FAR LESS THAN THAT EXPERIENCED TODAY. AN ADDITIONAL COUPLE
OF INCHES OF ACCUMULATIONS IS POSSIBLE. TEMPS WILL BE ON THE COOL
SIDE WITH GUSTY WLY WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE LONG WAVE PATTERN
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES EXIST
WITH TIMING AND STRENGTH OF INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES LEADING TO
DECREASED CONFIDENCE IN SENSIBLE WEATHER. THE OVERALL THEME IS
WESTERN RIDGE AND EASTERN TROUGH FOR THE CONUS...WITH AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE FOR SYNOPTIC
SNOWS ROUGHLY EVERY TWO DAYS...WITH FRIDAY - FRIDAY NIGHT...SUNDAY
NIGHT-MONDAY...THE MOST LIKELY TIME FRAMES FOR OUR FORECAST AREA
AT MOMENT. WE BEGIN THE PERIOD ON A QUIET NOTE UNDER RIDGING
SURFACE AND ALOFT THURSDAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVES BY FRIDAY
MORNING WITH A GENERAL SNOWFALL ENDING FRIDAY NIGHT. BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM...WEAK RIDGING FOLLOWS FOR SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. MORE
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM FOR SUNDAY NIGHT - MONDAY AS THE
BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD MAY REMAIN OFFSHORE.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...WIDESPREAD IFR AND LIFR IS DEVELOPING FROM SRN NH TO
COASTAL ME AT THIS HOUR. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE AS HEAVY SNWFL
BAND SLOWLY ROTATES NEWD. THIS WILL CONTINUE THRU EARLY AFTERNOON.
KLEB AND KHIE WILL BE SLOWER TO SEE IFR CONDITIONS...POSSIBLY
HOLDING OFF UNTIL MID MORNING OR LATER. COASTAL TERMINALS WILL
SEE NNELY WIND GUSTS NEAR 45 KTS AT TIMES. SNWFL WINDS DOWN BY TUE
EVENING...THOUGH PCPN LINGERS INTO WED. COULD SEE SCATTERED IFR
CONDITIONS WILL LINGERING SHSN.

LONG TERM...

FRI...MVFR IN SNOW WITH LCL IFR CONDS PSSBL.
      NW SFC WIND GUSTING TO 25 KT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...STORM WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR ALL
WATERS...EXCEPT FOR OUTER WATERS S OF CAPE ELIZABETH. HERE A
PERIOD OF 65 KT GUSTS APPEARS LIKELY...SO HAVE ISSUED A HURRICANE
FORCE WIND WARNING. ALSO MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY IS ALREADY
OCCURRING ON THE WATER BASED ON BUOY OBSERVATIONS. HAVE ISSUED A
FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY THRU WED MORNING AS A RESULT.

LONG TERM...

THU NIGHT - SAT...GALE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
LARGE...BATTERING WAVES ARE BUILDING THIS MORNING RIGHT AROUND
HIGH TIDE. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH A TWO FOOT STORM SURGE WILL
ALLOW PORTLAND AND HAMPTON TO REACH THEIR FLOOD STAGE. WINDS WILL
SWITCH TO THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON JUST PRIOR TO HIGH
TIDE...WHICH MAY REDUCE THE STORM SURGE.

USED THE NORTH ATLANTIC REGIONAL TEAM WAVE RUNUP MATRICES TO
FORECAST AND WARN FOR THE TWO HIGH TIDES TODAY. THE OUTPUT SHOWS
WAVE ACTION WILL ALLOW FOR LOCALLY SIGNIFICANT EROSION AS WELL AS
OVERWASH AT FORTUNES ROCKS...JENNIS...CAMP ELLIS AND FERRY BEACHES
IN MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE.

NERACOOS SPLASH-OVER NOMOGRAMS ALSO SHOWING SIGNIFICANT ISSUES AT
THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE FOR THE BEACHES SOUTH OF PORTLAND.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MEZ007>009-
     012>014.
     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MEZ018>028.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     MEZ025>028.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MEZ023-
     024.
NH...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NHZ002>009-
     011-015.
     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NHZ010-012>014.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NHZ001.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NHZ014.
MARINE...STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ150>153.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ150>154.
     HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LEGRO



000
FXUS61 KCAR 271152
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
652 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF CAPE COD THIS MORNING WILL MOVE INTO
THE GULF OF MAINE THIS EVENING AND ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA WEDNESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...HEAVY SNOW IS SPREADING INTO DOWN EAST MAINE ATTM. REPORTS
RECEIVED THUS FAR INDICATE FROM 3 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW HAS FALLEN
ALONG PORTIONS OF THE DOWN EAST COAST SO FAR THIS MORNING. WE ARE
ALREADY SEEING WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 40 MPH ALONG THE COAST AS
WELL CREATING BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
HOURLY TEMPERATURE GRIDS OTHERWISE NO OTHER CHANGES TO GOING
FORECAST PACKAGE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
WINTER STORM WARNINGS REMAIN UP FOR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS WITH
A BLIZZARD WARNING FOR ALL OF INTERIOR AND COASTAL DOWN EAST MAINE.
THE LATEST MSAS ANALYSIS SHOWS A 983 MB LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ABOUT
150 MILES SOUTH OF CAPE COD. THIS LOW WILL LIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST
TODAY AND ACROSS SOUTHWEST NOVA SCOTIA LATE TONIGHT. LATEST RADAR
IMAGERY SHOWS THE LEADING EDGE OF THE SNOW BEGINNING TO WORK NORTH
INTO DOWN EAST MAINE AS OF THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. EXPECT THE SNOW TO
CONTINUE TO EXPAND NORTH ACROSS THE REGION BY LATER THIS MORNING.
THE SNOW WILL BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES TODAY. AS THE LOW CONTINUES
TO TRACK OFF TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY EXPECT GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS
TO PRODUCE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW WITH WHITEOUT/BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS EXPECTED ESPECIALLY ACROSS DOWN EAST AREAS. LIGHTER
SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT BUT GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO RESULT IN BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. SNOWFALL TOTALS
THROUGH TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 6 TO 10 INCHES ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS WITH 12 TO 18 INCHES ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWN EAST
AREAS...WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE CLOSER TO
THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A DOUBLE BARRELED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CONSISTING OF THE THE DEEP
LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE NOR`EASTER AND A SECOND TRIPLE POINT LOW
WILL BE FOUND ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA AND THE SOUTHERN TIP OF LABRADOR
AT 12Z WED. THE LOWS WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY WED AS HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY MOVES EAST. THE HIGH WILL CREST OVER
NEW ENGLAND BY 12Z THU AND MOVE OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD DURING
THE DAY THU. LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH FROM THE W AND
WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN QUEBEC AND WESTERN NY STATE BY 00Z FRI.

AS FAR AS THE SENSIBLE WEATHER GOES...WE EXPECT AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW
WED MORNING TO WIND DOWN AS THE STRONG WIND DIMINISHES. THERE
WILL LIKELY EVEN BE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS BY AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WED WILL BE SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS FROM THE UPPER
TEENS NORTH TO THE MID 20S DOWN EAST. IT WILL BE SEASONABLE COLD
WED NIGHT AND DRY AND SEASONABLE THU WITH INCREASING CLOUDS IN THE
AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES. THE NEXT LOW MOVES IN FROM
THE W THU NIGHT AND DEEPENS IN THE GULF OF MAINE FRI. AN INVERTED
TROUGH WILL LIKELY EXTEND FROM THE LOW BACK ACROSS EASTERN MAINE
FRI. THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT
SNOWFALL...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS TO THE WEST. IT LOOKS LIKE ONCE WE ARE
DONE WITH THE CURRENT STORM THAT WE COULD VERY WELL NEED ANOTHER
ROUND OF WINTER STORM WATCHES FOR THE BANGOR AND KATAHDIN
REGIONS EAST. THE LOW PULLS AWAY SAT AND SHOULD LEAVE THE AREA
DRY AND COLD. THE NEXT SYSTEM MAY BRING THE CHANCE OF YET MORE
SNOW BY MON....BUT THERE ARE MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH SOME
SOLUTIONS MORE SUPPRESSED AND SOUTH OF THE REGION. TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS FOR SUN AND MON.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: WIDESPREAD LIFR/VLIFR CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY AT ALL
TERMINALS IN SNOW. GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL RESULT IN
CONSIDERABLE BLOWING SNOW ESPECIALLY KBGR/KBHB TERMINALS. IFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT IN SNOW.

SHORT TERM: MVFR WITH POCKETS OF IFR EARLY WED MORNING SHOULD
GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO VFR BY AFTERNOON. VFR WED NIGHT AND THU.
CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY LOWER TO IFR AND EVEN VLIFR FRI IN SNOW.
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR ON SAT...EXCEPT ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TERMINALS WHERE MVFR IS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT INTO TONIGHT. A
FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY IS ALSO IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT FOR
MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY. VISIBILITY WILL BE REDUCED TO LESS THAN
1 NM THROUGH TONIGHT IN SNOW.

SHORT TERM: ONCE THE STORM WARNING COMES DOWN A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
FOR THE RESIDUAL SEAS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THROUGH AROUND 00Z THU.
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SCA LEVELS WED NIGHT THROUGH
EARLY FRI.  A GALE IS POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT AS LOW PRES PULLS EAST OF
THE WATERS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AROUND THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE. HIGH TIDE
OCCURS AT 4 AM THIS MORNING...430 PM THIS AFTERNOON...AND 5 AM
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE RECORD SNOWFALL FOR TODAY, 1/27 AT BANGOR IS 10.8"
SET IN 1963. THIS RECORD HAS A HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF BEING BROKEN.
THE RECORD AT CARIBOU IS 9.9", SET IN 1963.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MEZ001>004.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MEZ005-006-
     010-011-031-032.
     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MEZ015>017-029-
     030.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MEZ029-030.
MARINE...STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ050>052.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DUDA
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM...CB
AVIATION...DUDA/CB
MARINE...DUDA/CB
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CLIMATE...CB



000
FXUS61 KCAR 271152
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
652 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF CAPE COD THIS MORNING WILL MOVE INTO
THE GULF OF MAINE THIS EVENING AND ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA WEDNESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...HEAVY SNOW IS SPREADING INTO DOWN EAST MAINE ATTM. REPORTS
RECEIVED THUS FAR INDICATE FROM 3 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW HAS FALLEN
ALONG PORTIONS OF THE DOWN EAST COAST SO FAR THIS MORNING. WE ARE
ALREADY SEEING WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 40 MPH ALONG THE COAST AS
WELL CREATING BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
HOURLY TEMPERATURE GRIDS OTHERWISE NO OTHER CHANGES TO GOING
FORECAST PACKAGE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
WINTER STORM WARNINGS REMAIN UP FOR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS WITH
A BLIZZARD WARNING FOR ALL OF INTERIOR AND COASTAL DOWN EAST MAINE.
THE LATEST MSAS ANALYSIS SHOWS A 983 MB LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ABOUT
150 MILES SOUTH OF CAPE COD. THIS LOW WILL LIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST
TODAY AND ACROSS SOUTHWEST NOVA SCOTIA LATE TONIGHT. LATEST RADAR
IMAGERY SHOWS THE LEADING EDGE OF THE SNOW BEGINNING TO WORK NORTH
INTO DOWN EAST MAINE AS OF THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. EXPECT THE SNOW TO
CONTINUE TO EXPAND NORTH ACROSS THE REGION BY LATER THIS MORNING.
THE SNOW WILL BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES TODAY. AS THE LOW CONTINUES
TO TRACK OFF TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY EXPECT GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS
TO PRODUCE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW WITH WHITEOUT/BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS EXPECTED ESPECIALLY ACROSS DOWN EAST AREAS. LIGHTER
SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT BUT GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO RESULT IN BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. SNOWFALL TOTALS
THROUGH TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 6 TO 10 INCHES ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS WITH 12 TO 18 INCHES ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWN EAST
AREAS...WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE CLOSER TO
THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A DOUBLE BARRELED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CONSISTING OF THE THE DEEP
LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE NOR`EASTER AND A SECOND TRIPLE POINT LOW
WILL BE FOUND ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA AND THE SOUTHERN TIP OF LABRADOR
AT 12Z WED. THE LOWS WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY WED AS HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY MOVES EAST. THE HIGH WILL CREST OVER
NEW ENGLAND BY 12Z THU AND MOVE OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD DURING
THE DAY THU. LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH FROM THE W AND
WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN QUEBEC AND WESTERN NY STATE BY 00Z FRI.

AS FAR AS THE SENSIBLE WEATHER GOES...WE EXPECT AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW
WED MORNING TO WIND DOWN AS THE STRONG WIND DIMINISHES. THERE
WILL LIKELY EVEN BE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS BY AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WED WILL BE SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS FROM THE UPPER
TEENS NORTH TO THE MID 20S DOWN EAST. IT WILL BE SEASONABLE COLD
WED NIGHT AND DRY AND SEASONABLE THU WITH INCREASING CLOUDS IN THE
AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES. THE NEXT LOW MOVES IN FROM
THE W THU NIGHT AND DEEPENS IN THE GULF OF MAINE FRI. AN INVERTED
TROUGH WILL LIKELY EXTEND FROM THE LOW BACK ACROSS EASTERN MAINE
FRI. THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT
SNOWFALL...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS TO THE WEST. IT LOOKS LIKE ONCE WE ARE
DONE WITH THE CURRENT STORM THAT WE COULD VERY WELL NEED ANOTHER
ROUND OF WINTER STORM WATCHES FOR THE BANGOR AND KATAHDIN
REGIONS EAST. THE LOW PULLS AWAY SAT AND SHOULD LEAVE THE AREA
DRY AND COLD. THE NEXT SYSTEM MAY BRING THE CHANCE OF YET MORE
SNOW BY MON....BUT THERE ARE MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH SOME
SOLUTIONS MORE SUPPRESSED AND SOUTH OF THE REGION. TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS FOR SUN AND MON.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: WIDESPREAD LIFR/VLIFR CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY AT ALL
TERMINALS IN SNOW. GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL RESULT IN
CONSIDERABLE BLOWING SNOW ESPECIALLY KBGR/KBHB TERMINALS. IFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT IN SNOW.

SHORT TERM: MVFR WITH POCKETS OF IFR EARLY WED MORNING SHOULD
GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO VFR BY AFTERNOON. VFR WED NIGHT AND THU.
CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY LOWER TO IFR AND EVEN VLIFR FRI IN SNOW.
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR ON SAT...EXCEPT ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TERMINALS WHERE MVFR IS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT INTO TONIGHT. A
FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY IS ALSO IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT FOR
MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY. VISIBILITY WILL BE REDUCED TO LESS THAN
1 NM THROUGH TONIGHT IN SNOW.

SHORT TERM: ONCE THE STORM WARNING COMES DOWN A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
FOR THE RESIDUAL SEAS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THROUGH AROUND 00Z THU.
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SCA LEVELS WED NIGHT THROUGH
EARLY FRI.  A GALE IS POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT AS LOW PRES PULLS EAST OF
THE WATERS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AROUND THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE. HIGH TIDE
OCCURS AT 4 AM THIS MORNING...430 PM THIS AFTERNOON...AND 5 AM
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE RECORD SNOWFALL FOR TODAY, 1/27 AT BANGOR IS 10.8"
SET IN 1963. THIS RECORD HAS A HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF BEING BROKEN.
THE RECORD AT CARIBOU IS 9.9", SET IN 1963.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MEZ001>004.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MEZ005-006-
     010-011-031-032.
     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MEZ015>017-029-
     030.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MEZ029-030.
MARINE...STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ050>052.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DUDA
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM...CB
AVIATION...DUDA/CB
MARINE...DUDA/CB
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CLIMATE...CB




000
FXUS61 KGYX 271039 AAA
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
539 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD TO JUST SOUTH OF
NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS TODAY. THE LOW WILL LINGER AROUND THROUGH
WEDNESDAY BRINGING A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO OUR REGION. ANOTHER
STORM SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING A GENERAL SNOWFALL TO THE AREA ON
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
UPDATE...INTENSE MESOSCALE DEFORMATION BAND HAS ROTATED FULLY
ONSHORE NOW. SNWFL RATES OF 2 TO 4 INCHES PER HOUR ARE OCCURRING
BENEATH THIS BAND. HAVE UPDATED SNWFL AMOUNTS IN THE PREVIOUS AND
NEXT 6 HOUR PERIODS TO GET A MORE ACCURATE UP TO DATE TOTAL
ACCUMULATION GRID TO THIS HOUR. AGAIN MORE FOCUS IS ON THE COAST
AND IMMEDIATE INTERIOR FOR HIGHER SNWFL AMOUNTS...WHILE TRIMMING
THE NRN EDGE BACK. SN IS ONLY NOW BEGINNING TO FALL IN THE
MTNS...SO AT BEST COULD ONLY HAVE AN INCH OR TWO ACCUMULATION THRU
12Z FOR THESE AREAS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS UPDATE...00Z
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS LATCHED ONTO THE IDEA OF SLIGHTLY WEAKER S/WV
FEATURE PHASING WITH THE INITIAL STORM SYSTEM THAT EXITED THE EAST
COAST YESTERDAY. THIS HAS ALLOWED THE SYSTEM TO SLIP FURTHER
E...RATHER THAN A STRONGER CAPTURE AND TUG BACK TO THE W.
GFS...CMC- REGIONAL...ECMWF...AND NAM ALL HAVE SIMILAR IDEAS
REGARDING EVOLUTION FOR THE REST OF TODAY.

SNOWFALL...

AT THIS HOUR A VERY INTENSE BAND OF SNWFL IS MORE OR LESS
PARALLELING THE COAST...AND SLOWLY INCHING NWWD. MODELED QPF HAS
BEEN KEYING ON THE COAST OR JUST INLAND FOR SEVERAL RUNS NOW.
TOSSING QPF ASIDE AND LOOKING ALOFT...NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF
FEATURE STRONG FRONTOGENESIS AT H7. WITHIN THIS BAND OF
FRONTOGENESIS THERE IS ALSO A DEFORMATION MAXIMUM. THE STRONGEST
BANDS OF SNWFL ARE FAVORED JUST ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE
DEFORMATION MAXIMUM...WITHIN THE STRONGEST FRONTOGENESIS. AS OF
THE 06-09Z PERIOD THIS IS VERIFYING NICELY. BY 12Z MODELS SUGGEST
THIS SIGNAL PIVOTS INLAND MORE...AND BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY
THRU 18Z. DURING THIS TIME BUFKIT SOUNDINGS FOR COASTAL LOCATIONS
BRIEFLY ATTEMPT TO NEAR MOIST ABSOLUTELY UNSTABLE ABOVE H7. WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE REPORTS OF THUNDER SN...BUT AT THE VERY
LEAST CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS WILL HELP TO INCREASE SNWFL RATES TO 2-4
INCHES PER HOUR AT TIMES. HAVE ADJUSTED THE HIGHEST SNWFL AMOUNTS
TOWARDS THE COAST SOME. THE OTHER FACTOR TO CONSIDER WITH SNWFL
AMOUNTS IS VERY DRY AIR IN PLACE AND JUST N OF THE FORECAST AREA.
NLY WINDS WILL ADVECT THIS AIR SWD...ERODING THE NRN EDGE OF SNWFL
AS WE/VE SEEN FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. THAT IN COMBINATION WITH THE
EWD MODEL SHIFT WILL YIELD A MUCH SHARPER SNWFL GRADIENT THAN
ORIGINALLY FORECAST. FOR NOW ONLY SIGHTLY LOWERED AMOUNTS IN THE
N...BUT SUBSEQUENT UPDATES MAY NEED MORE AGGRESSIVE LOWERING OF
TOTALS.

WINDS...

27.00Z ECWMF CONTINUED WITH THE IDEA OF ROTATING A POTENT LOW
LEVEL JET NWD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. AT 900 MB IT
INCREASED FROM ITS PREVIOUS FORECAST TO 80 KTS. GIVEN THE DEEP
COLD AIR IN PLACE...MIXING HEIGHTS ARE QUITE HIGH FOR A NOREASTER
EVEN WITH A LARGE INVERSION IN PLACE. EVEN A FRACTION OF THIS LOW
LEVEL JET MIXING DOWN...ESPECIALLY DURING THE HEAVIEST
SNWFL...YIELDS THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS ABOVE 50 KTS NEAR THE
COAST. GIVEN THAT WINDS ARE ALREADY GUSTING ABOVE 30 KTS...THIS
SEEMS ENTIRELY REASONABLE. INCREASED WIND FORECAST SLIGHTLY FROM
PREVIOUS PACKAGE. WIND POTENTIAL DECREASES FAIRLY QUICKLY THE
FURTHER INLAND ONE GOES...BUT GUSTS AROUND 25 TO 30 KTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. BASED ON BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...BEST WIND POTENTIAL WILL
OCCUR FROM THIS MORNING THRU EARLY AFTERNOON.

TEMPS...

COLD HIGH PRES TO THE N AND NLY WINDS WILL ENSURE THAT TEMPS
REMAIN FAIRLY STATIC THRU THE DAY. EXPECT THAT MUCH OF THE EVENT
WILL SEE SNWFL IN THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS. STRONG SYSTEM TO
OUR S AND THOSE NLY WINDS WILL ALSO KEEP COASTAL FRONT
OFF SHORE...AND ANY ADDITIONAL QPF ENHANCEMENT OFF SHORE TOO. COLD
TEMPS AND STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO COMBINE TO PRODUCE BITTERLY COLD
WIND CHILLS. IF STRANDED OUT IN THE STORM...THESE CONDITIONS COULD
PRODUCE A POTENTIALLY LIFE THREATENING SITUATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRES OCCLUDES AND UPPER LOW DRIFTS ACROSS THE AREA THRU WED.
THIS WILL CONTINUE -SN FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD...THOUGH INTENSITY
WILL BE FAR LESS THAN THAT EXPERIENCED TODAY. AN ADDITIONAL COUPLE
OF INCHES OF ACCUMULATIONS IS POSSIBLE. TEMPS WILL BE ON THE COOL
SIDE WITH GUSTY WLY WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE LONG WAVE PATTERN
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES EXIST
WITH TIMING AND STRENGTH OF INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES LEADING TO
DECREASED CONFIDENCE IN SENSIBLE WEATHER. THE OVERALL THEME IS
WESTERN RIDGE AND EASTERN TROUGH FOR THE CONUS...WITH AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE FOR SYNOPTIC
SNOWS ROUGHLY EVERY TWO DAYS...WITH FRIDAY - FRIDAY NIGHT...SUNDAY
NIGHT-MONDAY...THE MOST LIKELY TIME FRAMES FOR OUR FORECAST AREA
AT MOMENT. WE BEGIN THE PERIOD ON A QUIET NOTE UNDER RIDGING
SURFACE AND ALOFT THURSDAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVES BY FRIDAY
MORNING WITH A GENERAL SNOWFALL ENDING FRIDAY NIGHT. BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM...WEAK RIDGING FOLLOWS FOR SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. MORE
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM FOR SUNDAY NIGHT - MONDAY AS THE
BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD MAY REMAIN OFFSHORE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...WIDESPREAD IFR AND LIFR IS DEVELOPING FROM SRN NH TO
COASTAL ME AT THIS HOUR. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE AS HEAVY SNWFL
BAND SLOWLY ROTATES NEWD. THIS WILL CONTINUE THRU EARLY AFTERNOON.
KLEB AND KHIE WILL BE SLOWER TO SEE IFR CONDITIONS...POSSIBLY
HOLDING OFF UNTIL MID MORNING OR LATER. COASTAL TERMINALS WILL
SEE NNELY WIND GUSTS NEAR 45 KTS AT TIMES. SNWFL WINDS DOWN BY TUE
EVENING...THOUGH PCPN LINGERS INTO WED. COULD SEE SCATTERED IFR
CONDITIONS WILL LINGERING SHSN.

LONG TERM...

FRI...MVFR IN SNOW WITH LCL IFR CONDS PSSBL.
      NW SFC WIND GUSTING TO 25 KT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...STORM WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR ALL
WATERS...EXCEPT FOR OUTER WATERS S OF CAPE ELIZABETH. HERE A
PERIOD OF 65 KT GUSTS APPEARS LIKELY...SO HAVE ISSUED A HURRICANE
FORCE WIND WARNING. ALSO MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY IS ALREADY
OCCURRING ON THE WATER BASED ON BUOY OBSERVATIONS. HAVE ISSUED A
FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY THRU WED MORNING AS A RESULT.

LONG TERM...

THU NIGHT - SAT...GALE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
LARGE...BATTERING WAVES ARE BUILDING THIS MORNING RIGHT AROUND
HIGH TIDE. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH A TWO FOOT STORM SURGE WILL
ALLOW PORTLAND AND HAMPTON TO REACH THEIR FLOOD STAGE. WINDS WILL
SWITCH TO THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON JUST PRIOR TO HIGH
TIDE...WHICH MAY REDUCE THE STORM SURGE.

USED THE NORTH ATLANTIC REGIONAL TEAM WAVE RUNUP MATRICES TO
FORECAST AND WARN FOR THE TWO HIGH TIDES TODAY. THE OUTPUT SHOWS
WAVE ACTION WILL ALLOW FOR LOCALLY SIGNIFICANT EROSION AS WELL AS
OVERWASH AT FORTUNES ROCKS...JENNIS...CAMP ELLIS AND FERRY BEACHES
IN MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE.

NERACOOS SPLASH-OVER NOMOGRAMS ALSO SHOWING SIGNIFICANT ISSUES AT
THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE FOR THE BEACHES SOUTH OF PORTLAND.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MEZ007>009-
     012>014.
     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MEZ018>028.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     MEZ025>028.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MEZ023-
     024.
NH...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NHZ002>009-
     011-015.
     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NHZ010-012>014.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NHZ001.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NHZ014.
MARINE...STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ150>153.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ150>154.
     HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LEGRO



000
FXUS61 KGYX 271039 AAA
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
539 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD TO JUST SOUTH OF
NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS TODAY. THE LOW WILL LINGER AROUND THROUGH
WEDNESDAY BRINGING A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO OUR REGION. ANOTHER
STORM SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING A GENERAL SNOWFALL TO THE AREA ON
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
UPDATE...INTENSE MESOSCALE DEFORMATION BAND HAS ROTATED FULLY
ONSHORE NOW. SNWFL RATES OF 2 TO 4 INCHES PER HOUR ARE OCCURRING
BENEATH THIS BAND. HAVE UPDATED SNWFL AMOUNTS IN THE PREVIOUS AND
NEXT 6 HOUR PERIODS TO GET A MORE ACCURATE UP TO DATE TOTAL
ACCUMULATION GRID TO THIS HOUR. AGAIN MORE FOCUS IS ON THE COAST
AND IMMEDIATE INTERIOR FOR HIGHER SNWFL AMOUNTS...WHILE TRIMMING
THE NRN EDGE BACK. SN IS ONLY NOW BEGINNING TO FALL IN THE
MTNS...SO AT BEST COULD ONLY HAVE AN INCH OR TWO ACCUMULATION THRU
12Z FOR THESE AREAS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS UPDATE...00Z
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS LATCHED ONTO THE IDEA OF SLIGHTLY WEAKER S/WV
FEATURE PHASING WITH THE INITIAL STORM SYSTEM THAT EXITED THE EAST
COAST YESTERDAY. THIS HAS ALLOWED THE SYSTEM TO SLIP FURTHER
E...RATHER THAN A STRONGER CAPTURE AND TUG BACK TO THE W.
GFS...CMC- REGIONAL...ECMWF...AND NAM ALL HAVE SIMILAR IDEAS
REGARDING EVOLUTION FOR THE REST OF TODAY.

SNOWFALL...

AT THIS HOUR A VERY INTENSE BAND OF SNWFL IS MORE OR LESS
PARALLELING THE COAST...AND SLOWLY INCHING NWWD. MODELED QPF HAS
BEEN KEYING ON THE COAST OR JUST INLAND FOR SEVERAL RUNS NOW.
TOSSING QPF ASIDE AND LOOKING ALOFT...NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF
FEATURE STRONG FRONTOGENESIS AT H7. WITHIN THIS BAND OF
FRONTOGENESIS THERE IS ALSO A DEFORMATION MAXIMUM. THE STRONGEST
BANDS OF SNWFL ARE FAVORED JUST ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE
DEFORMATION MAXIMUM...WITHIN THE STRONGEST FRONTOGENESIS. AS OF
THE 06-09Z PERIOD THIS IS VERIFYING NICELY. BY 12Z MODELS SUGGEST
THIS SIGNAL PIVOTS INLAND MORE...AND BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY
THRU 18Z. DURING THIS TIME BUFKIT SOUNDINGS FOR COASTAL LOCATIONS
BRIEFLY ATTEMPT TO NEAR MOIST ABSOLUTELY UNSTABLE ABOVE H7. WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE REPORTS OF THUNDER SN...BUT AT THE VERY
LEAST CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS WILL HELP TO INCREASE SNWFL RATES TO 2-4
INCHES PER HOUR AT TIMES. HAVE ADJUSTED THE HIGHEST SNWFL AMOUNTS
TOWARDS THE COAST SOME. THE OTHER FACTOR TO CONSIDER WITH SNWFL
AMOUNTS IS VERY DRY AIR IN PLACE AND JUST N OF THE FORECAST AREA.
NLY WINDS WILL ADVECT THIS AIR SWD...ERODING THE NRN EDGE OF SNWFL
AS WE/VE SEEN FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. THAT IN COMBINATION WITH THE
EWD MODEL SHIFT WILL YIELD A MUCH SHARPER SNWFL GRADIENT THAN
ORIGINALLY FORECAST. FOR NOW ONLY SIGHTLY LOWERED AMOUNTS IN THE
N...BUT SUBSEQUENT UPDATES MAY NEED MORE AGGRESSIVE LOWERING OF
TOTALS.

WINDS...

27.00Z ECWMF CONTINUED WITH THE IDEA OF ROTATING A POTENT LOW
LEVEL JET NWD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. AT 900 MB IT
INCREASED FROM ITS PREVIOUS FORECAST TO 80 KTS. GIVEN THE DEEP
COLD AIR IN PLACE...MIXING HEIGHTS ARE QUITE HIGH FOR A NOREASTER
EVEN WITH A LARGE INVERSION IN PLACE. EVEN A FRACTION OF THIS LOW
LEVEL JET MIXING DOWN...ESPECIALLY DURING THE HEAVIEST
SNWFL...YIELDS THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS ABOVE 50 KTS NEAR THE
COAST. GIVEN THAT WINDS ARE ALREADY GUSTING ABOVE 30 KTS...THIS
SEEMS ENTIRELY REASONABLE. INCREASED WIND FORECAST SLIGHTLY FROM
PREVIOUS PACKAGE. WIND POTENTIAL DECREASES FAIRLY QUICKLY THE
FURTHER INLAND ONE GOES...BUT GUSTS AROUND 25 TO 30 KTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. BASED ON BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...BEST WIND POTENTIAL WILL
OCCUR FROM THIS MORNING THRU EARLY AFTERNOON.

TEMPS...

COLD HIGH PRES TO THE N AND NLY WINDS WILL ENSURE THAT TEMPS
REMAIN FAIRLY STATIC THRU THE DAY. EXPECT THAT MUCH OF THE EVENT
WILL SEE SNWFL IN THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS. STRONG SYSTEM TO
OUR S AND THOSE NLY WINDS WILL ALSO KEEP COASTAL FRONT
OFF SHORE...AND ANY ADDITIONAL QPF ENHANCEMENT OFF SHORE TOO. COLD
TEMPS AND STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO COMBINE TO PRODUCE BITTERLY COLD
WIND CHILLS. IF STRANDED OUT IN THE STORM...THESE CONDITIONS COULD
PRODUCE A POTENTIALLY LIFE THREATENING SITUATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRES OCCLUDES AND UPPER LOW DRIFTS ACROSS THE AREA THRU WED.
THIS WILL CONTINUE -SN FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD...THOUGH INTENSITY
WILL BE FAR LESS THAN THAT EXPERIENCED TODAY. AN ADDITIONAL COUPLE
OF INCHES OF ACCUMULATIONS IS POSSIBLE. TEMPS WILL BE ON THE COOL
SIDE WITH GUSTY WLY WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE LONG WAVE PATTERN
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES EXIST
WITH TIMING AND STRENGTH OF INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES LEADING TO
DECREASED CONFIDENCE IN SENSIBLE WEATHER. THE OVERALL THEME IS
WESTERN RIDGE AND EASTERN TROUGH FOR THE CONUS...WITH AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE FOR SYNOPTIC
SNOWS ROUGHLY EVERY TWO DAYS...WITH FRIDAY - FRIDAY NIGHT...SUNDAY
NIGHT-MONDAY...THE MOST LIKELY TIME FRAMES FOR OUR FORECAST AREA
AT MOMENT. WE BEGIN THE PERIOD ON A QUIET NOTE UNDER RIDGING
SURFACE AND ALOFT THURSDAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVES BY FRIDAY
MORNING WITH A GENERAL SNOWFALL ENDING FRIDAY NIGHT. BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM...WEAK RIDGING FOLLOWS FOR SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. MORE
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM FOR SUNDAY NIGHT - MONDAY AS THE
BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD MAY REMAIN OFFSHORE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...WIDESPREAD IFR AND LIFR IS DEVELOPING FROM SRN NH TO
COASTAL ME AT THIS HOUR. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE AS HEAVY SNWFL
BAND SLOWLY ROTATES NEWD. THIS WILL CONTINUE THRU EARLY AFTERNOON.
KLEB AND KHIE WILL BE SLOWER TO SEE IFR CONDITIONS...POSSIBLY
HOLDING OFF UNTIL MID MORNING OR LATER. COASTAL TERMINALS WILL
SEE NNELY WIND GUSTS NEAR 45 KTS AT TIMES. SNWFL WINDS DOWN BY TUE
EVENING...THOUGH PCPN LINGERS INTO WED. COULD SEE SCATTERED IFR
CONDITIONS WILL LINGERING SHSN.

LONG TERM...

FRI...MVFR IN SNOW WITH LCL IFR CONDS PSSBL.
      NW SFC WIND GUSTING TO 25 KT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...STORM WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR ALL
WATERS...EXCEPT FOR OUTER WATERS S OF CAPE ELIZABETH. HERE A
PERIOD OF 65 KT GUSTS APPEARS LIKELY...SO HAVE ISSUED A HURRICANE
FORCE WIND WARNING. ALSO MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY IS ALREADY
OCCURRING ON THE WATER BASED ON BUOY OBSERVATIONS. HAVE ISSUED A
FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY THRU WED MORNING AS A RESULT.

LONG TERM...

THU NIGHT - SAT...GALE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
LARGE...BATTERING WAVES ARE BUILDING THIS MORNING RIGHT AROUND
HIGH TIDE. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH A TWO FOOT STORM SURGE WILL
ALLOW PORTLAND AND HAMPTON TO REACH THEIR FLOOD STAGE. WINDS WILL
SWITCH TO THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON JUST PRIOR TO HIGH
TIDE...WHICH MAY REDUCE THE STORM SURGE.

USED THE NORTH ATLANTIC REGIONAL TEAM WAVE RUNUP MATRICES TO
FORECAST AND WARN FOR THE TWO HIGH TIDES TODAY. THE OUTPUT SHOWS
WAVE ACTION WILL ALLOW FOR LOCALLY SIGNIFICANT EROSION AS WELL AS
OVERWASH AT FORTUNES ROCKS...JENNIS...CAMP ELLIS AND FERRY BEACHES
IN MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE.

NERACOOS SPLASH-OVER NOMOGRAMS ALSO SHOWING SIGNIFICANT ISSUES AT
THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE FOR THE BEACHES SOUTH OF PORTLAND.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MEZ007>009-
     012>014.
     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MEZ018>028.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     MEZ025>028.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MEZ023-
     024.
NH...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NHZ002>009-
     011-015.
     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NHZ010-012>014.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NHZ001.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NHZ014.
MARINE...STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ150>153.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ150>154.
     HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LEGRO




000
FXUS61 KGYX 270932
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
432 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD TO JUST SOUTH OF
NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS TODAY. THE LOW WILL LINGER AROUND THROUGH
WEDNESDAY BRINGING A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO OUR REGION. ANOTHER
STORM SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING A GENERAL SNOWFALL TO THE AREA ON
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS UPDATE...00Z MODEL GUIDANCE HAS
LATCHED ONTO THE IDEA OF SLIGHTLY WEAKER S/WV FEATURE PHASING WITH
THE INITIAL STORM SYSTEM THAT EXITED THE EAST COAST YESTERDAY.
THIS HAS ALLOWED THE SYSTEM TO SLIP FURTHER E...RATHER THAN A
STRONGER CAPTURE AND TUG BACK TO THE W. GFS...CMC-
REGIONAL...ECMWF...AND NAM ALL HAVE SIMILAR IDEAS REGARDING
EVOLUTION FOR THE REST OF TODAY.

SNOWFALL...

AT THIS HOUR A VERY INTENSE BAND OF SNWFL IS MORE OR LESS
PARALLELING THE COAST...AND SLOWLY INCHING NWWD. MODELED QPF HAS
BEEN KEYING ON THE COAST OR JUST INLAND FOR SEVERAL RUNS NOW.
TOSSING QPF ASIDE AND LOOKING ALOFT...NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF
FEATURE STRONG FRONTOGENESIS AT H7. WITHIN THIS BAND OF
FRONTOGENESIS THERE IS ALSO A DEFORMATION MAXIMUM. THE STRONGEST
BANDS OF SNWFL ARE FAVORED JUST ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE
DEFORMATION MAXIMUM...WITHIN THE STRONGEST FRONTOGENESIS. AS OF
THE 06-09Z PERIOD THIS IS VERIFYING NICELY. BY 12Z MODELS SUGGEST
THIS SIGNAL PIVOTS INLAND MORE...AND BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY
THRU 18Z. DURING THIS TIME BUFKIT SOUNDINGS FOR COASTAL LOCATIONS
BRIEFLY ATTEMPT TO NEAR MOIST ABSOLUTELY UNSTABLE ABOVE H7. WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE REPORTS OF THUNDER SN...BUT AT THE VERY
LEAST CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS WILL HELP TO INCREASE SNWFL RATES TO 2-4
INCHES PER HOUR AT TIMES. HAVE ADJUSTED THE HIGHEST SNWFL AMOUNTS
TOWARDS THE COAST SOME. THE OTHER FACTOR TO CONSIDER WITH SNWFL
AMOUNTS IS VERY DRY AIR IN PLACE AND JUST N OF THE FORECAST AREA.
NLY WINDS WILL ADVECT THIS AIR SWD...ERODING THE NRN EDGE OF SNWFL
AS WE/VE SEEN FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. THAT IN COMBINATION WITH THE
EWD MODEL SHIFT WILL YIELD A MUCH SHARPER SNWFL GRADIENT THAN
ORIGINALLY FORECAST. FOR NOW ONLY SIGHTLY LOWERED AMOUNTS IN THE
N...BUT SUBSEQUENT UPDATES MAY NEED MORE AGGRESSIVE LOWERING OF
TOTALS.

WINDS...

27.00Z ECWMF CONTINUED WITH THE IDEA OF ROTATING A POTENT LOW
LEVEL JET NWD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. AT 900 MB IT
INCREASED FROM ITS PREVIOUS FORECAST TO 80 KTS. GIVEN THE DEEP
COLD AIR IN PLACE...MIXING HEIGHTS ARE QUITE HIGH FOR A NOREASTER
EVEN WITH A LARGE INVERSION IN PLACE. EVEN A FRACTION OF THIS LOW
LEVEL JET MIXING DOWN...ESPECIALLY DURING THE HEAVIEST
SNWFL...YIELDS THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS ABOVE 50 KTS NEAR THE
COAST. GIVEN THAT WINDS ARE ALREADY GUSTING ABOVE 30 KTS...THIS
SEEMS ENTIRELY REASONABLE. INCREASED WIND FORECAST SLIGHTLY FROM
PREVIOUS PACKAGE. WIND POTENTIAL DECREASES FAIRLY QUICKLY THE
FURTHER INLAND ONE GOES...BUT GUSTS AROUND 25 TO 30 KTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. BASED ON BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...BEST WIND POTENTIAL WILL
OCCUR FROM THIS MORNING THRU EARLY AFTERNOON.

TEMPS...

COLD HIGH PRES TO THE N AND NLY WINDS WILL ENSURE THAT TEMPS
REMAIN FAIRLY STATIC THRU THE DAY. EXPECT THAT MUCH OF THE EVENT
WILL SEE SNWFL IN THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS. STRONG SYSTEM TO
OUR S AND THOSE NLY WINDS WILL ALSO KEEP COASTAL FRONT
OFF SHORE...AND ANY ADDITIONAL QPF ENHANCEMENT OFF SHORE TOO. COLD
TEMPS AND STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO COMBINE TO PRODUCE BITTERLY COLD
WIND CHILLS. IF STRANDED OUT IN THE STORM...THESE CONDITIONS COULD
PRODUCE A POTENTIALLY LIFE THREATENING SITUATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRES OCCLUDES AND UPPER LOW DRIFTS ACROSS THE AREA THRU WED.
THIS WILL CONTINUE -SN FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD...THOUGH INTENSITY
WILL BE FAR LESS THAN THAT EXPERIENCED TODAY. AN ADDITIONAL COUPLE
OF INCHES OF ACCUMULATIONS IS POSSIBLE. TEMPS WILL BE ON THE COOL
SIDE WITH GUSTY WLY WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE LONG WAVE PATTERN
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES EXIST
WITH TIMING AND STRENGTH OF INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES LEADING TO
DECREASED CONFIDENCE IN SENSIBLE WEATHER. THE OVERALL THEME IS
WESTERN RIDGE AND EASTERN TROUGH FOR THE CONUS...WITH AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE FOR SYNOPTIC
SNOWS ROUGHLY EVERY TWO DAYS...WITH FRIDAY - FRIDAY NIGHT...SUNDAY
NIGHT-MONDAY...THE MOST LIKELY TIME FRAMES FOR OUR FORECAST AREA
AT MOMENT. WE BEGIN THE PERIOD ON A QUIET NOTE UNDER RIDGING
SURFACE AND ALOFT THURSDAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVES BY FRIDAY
MORNING WITH A GENERAL SNOWFALL ENDING FRIDAY NIGHT. BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM...WEAK RIDGING FOLLOWS FOR SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. MORE
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM FOR SUNDAY NIGHT - MONDAY AS THE
BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD MAY REMAIN OFFSHORE.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...WIDESPREAD IFR AND LIFR IS DEVELOPING FROM SRN NH TO
COASTAL ME AT THIS HOUR. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE AS HEAVY SNWFL
BAND SLOWLY ROTATES NEWD. THIS WILL CONTINUE THRU EARLY AFTERNOON.
KLEB AND KHIE WILL BE SLOWER TO SEE IFR CONDITIONS...POSSIBLY
HOLDING OFF UNTIL MID MORNING OR LATER. COASTAL TERMINALS WILL
SEE NNELY WIND GUSTS NEAR 45 KTS AT TIMES. SNWFL WINDS DOWN BY TUE
EVENING...THOUGH PCPN LINGERS INTO WED. COULD SEE SCATTERED IFR
CONDITIONS WILL LINGERING SHSN.

LONG TERM...

FRI...MVFR IN SNOW WITH LCL IFR CONDS PSSBL.
      NW SFC WIND GUSTING TO 25 KT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...STORM WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR ALL
WATERS...EXCEPT FOR OUTER WATERS S OF CAPE ELIZABETH. HERE A
PERIOD OF 65 KT GUSTS APPEARS LIKELY...SO HAVE ISSUED A HURRICANE
FORCE WIND WARNING. ALSO MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY IS ALREADY
OCCURRING ON THE WATER BASED ON BUOY OBSERVATIONS. HAVE ISSUED A
FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY THRU WED MORNING AS A RESULT.

LONG TERM...

THU NIGHT - SAT...GALE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
LARGE...BATTERING WAVES ARE BUILDING THIS MORNING RIGHT AROUND
HIGH TIDE. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH A TWO FOOT STORM SURGE WILL
ALLOW PORTLAND AND HAMPTON TO REACH THEIR FLOOD STAGE. WINDS WILL
SWITCH TO THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON JUST PRIOR TO HIGH
TIDE...WHICH MAY REDUCE THE STORM SURGE.

USED THE NORTH ATLANTIC REGIONAL TEAM WAVE RUNUP MATRICES TO
FORECAST AND WARN FOR THE TWO HIGH TIDES TODAY. THE OUTPUT SHOWS
WAVE ACTION WILL ALLOW FOR LOCALLY SIGNIFICANT EROSION AS WELL AS
OVERWASH AT FORTUNES ROCKS...JENNIS...CAMP ELLIS AND FERRY BEACHES
IN MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE.

NERACOOS SPLASH-OVER NOMOGRAMS ALSO SHOWING SIGNIFICANT ISSUES AT
THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE FOR THE BEACHES SOUTH OF PORTLAND.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MEZ007>009-
     012>014.
     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MEZ018>028.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     MEZ025>028.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MEZ023-
     024.
NH...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NHZ002>009-
     011-015.
     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NHZ010-012>014.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NHZ001.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NHZ014.
MARINE...STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ150>153.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ150>154.
     HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LEGRO
SHORT TERM...LEGRO
LONG TERM...SCHWIBS
AVIATION...LEGRO/SCHWIBS
MARINE...LEGRO/SCHWIBS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...LEGRO/CANNON




000
FXUS61 KGYX 270932
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
432 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD TO JUST SOUTH OF
NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS TODAY. THE LOW WILL LINGER AROUND THROUGH
WEDNESDAY BRINGING A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO OUR REGION. ANOTHER
STORM SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING A GENERAL SNOWFALL TO THE AREA ON
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS UPDATE...00Z MODEL GUIDANCE HAS
LATCHED ONTO THE IDEA OF SLIGHTLY WEAKER S/WV FEATURE PHASING WITH
THE INITIAL STORM SYSTEM THAT EXITED THE EAST COAST YESTERDAY.
THIS HAS ALLOWED THE SYSTEM TO SLIP FURTHER E...RATHER THAN A
STRONGER CAPTURE AND TUG BACK TO THE W. GFS...CMC-
REGIONAL...ECMWF...AND NAM ALL HAVE SIMILAR IDEAS REGARDING
EVOLUTION FOR THE REST OF TODAY.

SNOWFALL...

AT THIS HOUR A VERY INTENSE BAND OF SNWFL IS MORE OR LESS
PARALLELING THE COAST...AND SLOWLY INCHING NWWD. MODELED QPF HAS
BEEN KEYING ON THE COAST OR JUST INLAND FOR SEVERAL RUNS NOW.
TOSSING QPF ASIDE AND LOOKING ALOFT...NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF
FEATURE STRONG FRONTOGENESIS AT H7. WITHIN THIS BAND OF
FRONTOGENESIS THERE IS ALSO A DEFORMATION MAXIMUM. THE STRONGEST
BANDS OF SNWFL ARE FAVORED JUST ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE
DEFORMATION MAXIMUM...WITHIN THE STRONGEST FRONTOGENESIS. AS OF
THE 06-09Z PERIOD THIS IS VERIFYING NICELY. BY 12Z MODELS SUGGEST
THIS SIGNAL PIVOTS INLAND MORE...AND BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY
THRU 18Z. DURING THIS TIME BUFKIT SOUNDINGS FOR COASTAL LOCATIONS
BRIEFLY ATTEMPT TO NEAR MOIST ABSOLUTELY UNSTABLE ABOVE H7. WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE REPORTS OF THUNDER SN...BUT AT THE VERY
LEAST CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS WILL HELP TO INCREASE SNWFL RATES TO 2-4
INCHES PER HOUR AT TIMES. HAVE ADJUSTED THE HIGHEST SNWFL AMOUNTS
TOWARDS THE COAST SOME. THE OTHER FACTOR TO CONSIDER WITH SNWFL
AMOUNTS IS VERY DRY AIR IN PLACE AND JUST N OF THE FORECAST AREA.
NLY WINDS WILL ADVECT THIS AIR SWD...ERODING THE NRN EDGE OF SNWFL
AS WE/VE SEEN FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. THAT IN COMBINATION WITH THE
EWD MODEL SHIFT WILL YIELD A MUCH SHARPER SNWFL GRADIENT THAN
ORIGINALLY FORECAST. FOR NOW ONLY SIGHTLY LOWERED AMOUNTS IN THE
N...BUT SUBSEQUENT UPDATES MAY NEED MORE AGGRESSIVE LOWERING OF
TOTALS.

WINDS...

27.00Z ECWMF CONTINUED WITH THE IDEA OF ROTATING A POTENT LOW
LEVEL JET NWD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. AT 900 MB IT
INCREASED FROM ITS PREVIOUS FORECAST TO 80 KTS. GIVEN THE DEEP
COLD AIR IN PLACE...MIXING HEIGHTS ARE QUITE HIGH FOR A NOREASTER
EVEN WITH A LARGE INVERSION IN PLACE. EVEN A FRACTION OF THIS LOW
LEVEL JET MIXING DOWN...ESPECIALLY DURING THE HEAVIEST
SNWFL...YIELDS THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS ABOVE 50 KTS NEAR THE
COAST. GIVEN THAT WINDS ARE ALREADY GUSTING ABOVE 30 KTS...THIS
SEEMS ENTIRELY REASONABLE. INCREASED WIND FORECAST SLIGHTLY FROM
PREVIOUS PACKAGE. WIND POTENTIAL DECREASES FAIRLY QUICKLY THE
FURTHER INLAND ONE GOES...BUT GUSTS AROUND 25 TO 30 KTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. BASED ON BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...BEST WIND POTENTIAL WILL
OCCUR FROM THIS MORNING THRU EARLY AFTERNOON.

TEMPS...

COLD HIGH PRES TO THE N AND NLY WINDS WILL ENSURE THAT TEMPS
REMAIN FAIRLY STATIC THRU THE DAY. EXPECT THAT MUCH OF THE EVENT
WILL SEE SNWFL IN THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS. STRONG SYSTEM TO
OUR S AND THOSE NLY WINDS WILL ALSO KEEP COASTAL FRONT
OFF SHORE...AND ANY ADDITIONAL QPF ENHANCEMENT OFF SHORE TOO. COLD
TEMPS AND STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO COMBINE TO PRODUCE BITTERLY COLD
WIND CHILLS. IF STRANDED OUT IN THE STORM...THESE CONDITIONS COULD
PRODUCE A POTENTIALLY LIFE THREATENING SITUATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRES OCCLUDES AND UPPER LOW DRIFTS ACROSS THE AREA THRU WED.
THIS WILL CONTINUE -SN FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD...THOUGH INTENSITY
WILL BE FAR LESS THAN THAT EXPERIENCED TODAY. AN ADDITIONAL COUPLE
OF INCHES OF ACCUMULATIONS IS POSSIBLE. TEMPS WILL BE ON THE COOL
SIDE WITH GUSTY WLY WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE LONG WAVE PATTERN
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES EXIST
WITH TIMING AND STRENGTH OF INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES LEADING TO
DECREASED CONFIDENCE IN SENSIBLE WEATHER. THE OVERALL THEME IS
WESTERN RIDGE AND EASTERN TROUGH FOR THE CONUS...WITH AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE FOR SYNOPTIC
SNOWS ROUGHLY EVERY TWO DAYS...WITH FRIDAY - FRIDAY NIGHT...SUNDAY
NIGHT-MONDAY...THE MOST LIKELY TIME FRAMES FOR OUR FORECAST AREA
AT MOMENT. WE BEGIN THE PERIOD ON A QUIET NOTE UNDER RIDGING
SURFACE AND ALOFT THURSDAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVES BY FRIDAY
MORNING WITH A GENERAL SNOWFALL ENDING FRIDAY NIGHT. BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM...WEAK RIDGING FOLLOWS FOR SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. MORE
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM FOR SUNDAY NIGHT - MONDAY AS THE
BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD MAY REMAIN OFFSHORE.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...WIDESPREAD IFR AND LIFR IS DEVELOPING FROM SRN NH TO
COASTAL ME AT THIS HOUR. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE AS HEAVY SNWFL
BAND SLOWLY ROTATES NEWD. THIS WILL CONTINUE THRU EARLY AFTERNOON.
KLEB AND KHIE WILL BE SLOWER TO SEE IFR CONDITIONS...POSSIBLY
HOLDING OFF UNTIL MID MORNING OR LATER. COASTAL TERMINALS WILL
SEE NNELY WIND GUSTS NEAR 45 KTS AT TIMES. SNWFL WINDS DOWN BY TUE
EVENING...THOUGH PCPN LINGERS INTO WED. COULD SEE SCATTERED IFR
CONDITIONS WILL LINGERING SHSN.

LONG TERM...

FRI...MVFR IN SNOW WITH LCL IFR CONDS PSSBL.
      NW SFC WIND GUSTING TO 25 KT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...STORM WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR ALL
WATERS...EXCEPT FOR OUTER WATERS S OF CAPE ELIZABETH. HERE A
PERIOD OF 65 KT GUSTS APPEARS LIKELY...SO HAVE ISSUED A HURRICANE
FORCE WIND WARNING. ALSO MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY IS ALREADY
OCCURRING ON THE WATER BASED ON BUOY OBSERVATIONS. HAVE ISSUED A
FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY THRU WED MORNING AS A RESULT.

LONG TERM...

THU NIGHT - SAT...GALE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
LARGE...BATTERING WAVES ARE BUILDING THIS MORNING RIGHT AROUND
HIGH TIDE. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH A TWO FOOT STORM SURGE WILL
ALLOW PORTLAND AND HAMPTON TO REACH THEIR FLOOD STAGE. WINDS WILL
SWITCH TO THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON JUST PRIOR TO HIGH
TIDE...WHICH MAY REDUCE THE STORM SURGE.

USED THE NORTH ATLANTIC REGIONAL TEAM WAVE RUNUP MATRICES TO
FORECAST AND WARN FOR THE TWO HIGH TIDES TODAY. THE OUTPUT SHOWS
WAVE ACTION WILL ALLOW FOR LOCALLY SIGNIFICANT EROSION AS WELL AS
OVERWASH AT FORTUNES ROCKS...JENNIS...CAMP ELLIS AND FERRY BEACHES
IN MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE.

NERACOOS SPLASH-OVER NOMOGRAMS ALSO SHOWING SIGNIFICANT ISSUES AT
THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE FOR THE BEACHES SOUTH OF PORTLAND.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MEZ007>009-
     012>014.
     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MEZ018>028.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     MEZ025>028.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MEZ023-
     024.
NH...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NHZ002>009-
     011-015.
     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NHZ010-012>014.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NHZ001.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NHZ014.
MARINE...STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ150>153.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ150>154.
     HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LEGRO
SHORT TERM...LEGRO
LONG TERM...SCHWIBS
AVIATION...LEGRO/SCHWIBS
MARINE...LEGRO/SCHWIBS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...LEGRO/CANNON




000
FXUS61 KGYX 270932
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
432 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD TO JUST SOUTH OF
NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS TODAY. THE LOW WILL LINGER AROUND THROUGH
WEDNESDAY BRINGING A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO OUR REGION. ANOTHER
STORM SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING A GENERAL SNOWFALL TO THE AREA ON
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS UPDATE...00Z MODEL GUIDANCE HAS
LATCHED ONTO THE IDEA OF SLIGHTLY WEAKER S/WV FEATURE PHASING WITH
THE INITIAL STORM SYSTEM THAT EXITED THE EAST COAST YESTERDAY.
THIS HAS ALLOWED THE SYSTEM TO SLIP FURTHER E...RATHER THAN A
STRONGER CAPTURE AND TUG BACK TO THE W. GFS...CMC-
REGIONAL...ECMWF...AND NAM ALL HAVE SIMILAR IDEAS REGARDING
EVOLUTION FOR THE REST OF TODAY.

SNOWFALL...

AT THIS HOUR A VERY INTENSE BAND OF SNWFL IS MORE OR LESS
PARALLELING THE COAST...AND SLOWLY INCHING NWWD. MODELED QPF HAS
BEEN KEYING ON THE COAST OR JUST INLAND FOR SEVERAL RUNS NOW.
TOSSING QPF ASIDE AND LOOKING ALOFT...NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF
FEATURE STRONG FRONTOGENESIS AT H7. WITHIN THIS BAND OF
FRONTOGENESIS THERE IS ALSO A DEFORMATION MAXIMUM. THE STRONGEST
BANDS OF SNWFL ARE FAVORED JUST ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE
DEFORMATION MAXIMUM...WITHIN THE STRONGEST FRONTOGENESIS. AS OF
THE 06-09Z PERIOD THIS IS VERIFYING NICELY. BY 12Z MODELS SUGGEST
THIS SIGNAL PIVOTS INLAND MORE...AND BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY
THRU 18Z. DURING THIS TIME BUFKIT SOUNDINGS FOR COASTAL LOCATIONS
BRIEFLY ATTEMPT TO NEAR MOIST ABSOLUTELY UNSTABLE ABOVE H7. WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE REPORTS OF THUNDER SN...BUT AT THE VERY
LEAST CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS WILL HELP TO INCREASE SNWFL RATES TO 2-4
INCHES PER HOUR AT TIMES. HAVE ADJUSTED THE HIGHEST SNWFL AMOUNTS
TOWARDS THE COAST SOME. THE OTHER FACTOR TO CONSIDER WITH SNWFL
AMOUNTS IS VERY DRY AIR IN PLACE AND JUST N OF THE FORECAST AREA.
NLY WINDS WILL ADVECT THIS AIR SWD...ERODING THE NRN EDGE OF SNWFL
AS WE/VE SEEN FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. THAT IN COMBINATION WITH THE
EWD MODEL SHIFT WILL YIELD A MUCH SHARPER SNWFL GRADIENT THAN
ORIGINALLY FORECAST. FOR NOW ONLY SIGHTLY LOWERED AMOUNTS IN THE
N...BUT SUBSEQUENT UPDATES MAY NEED MORE AGGRESSIVE LOWERING OF
TOTALS.

WINDS...

27.00Z ECWMF CONTINUED WITH THE IDEA OF ROTATING A POTENT LOW
LEVEL JET NWD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. AT 900 MB IT
INCREASED FROM ITS PREVIOUS FORECAST TO 80 KTS. GIVEN THE DEEP
COLD AIR IN PLACE...MIXING HEIGHTS ARE QUITE HIGH FOR A NOREASTER
EVEN WITH A LARGE INVERSION IN PLACE. EVEN A FRACTION OF THIS LOW
LEVEL JET MIXING DOWN...ESPECIALLY DURING THE HEAVIEST
SNWFL...YIELDS THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS ABOVE 50 KTS NEAR THE
COAST. GIVEN THAT WINDS ARE ALREADY GUSTING ABOVE 30 KTS...THIS
SEEMS ENTIRELY REASONABLE. INCREASED WIND FORECAST SLIGHTLY FROM
PREVIOUS PACKAGE. WIND POTENTIAL DECREASES FAIRLY QUICKLY THE
FURTHER INLAND ONE GOES...BUT GUSTS AROUND 25 TO 30 KTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. BASED ON BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...BEST WIND POTENTIAL WILL
OCCUR FROM THIS MORNING THRU EARLY AFTERNOON.

TEMPS...

COLD HIGH PRES TO THE N AND NLY WINDS WILL ENSURE THAT TEMPS
REMAIN FAIRLY STATIC THRU THE DAY. EXPECT THAT MUCH OF THE EVENT
WILL SEE SNWFL IN THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS. STRONG SYSTEM TO
OUR S AND THOSE NLY WINDS WILL ALSO KEEP COASTAL FRONT
OFF SHORE...AND ANY ADDITIONAL QPF ENHANCEMENT OFF SHORE TOO. COLD
TEMPS AND STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO COMBINE TO PRODUCE BITTERLY COLD
WIND CHILLS. IF STRANDED OUT IN THE STORM...THESE CONDITIONS COULD
PRODUCE A POTENTIALLY LIFE THREATENING SITUATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRES OCCLUDES AND UPPER LOW DRIFTS ACROSS THE AREA THRU WED.
THIS WILL CONTINUE -SN FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD...THOUGH INTENSITY
WILL BE FAR LESS THAN THAT EXPERIENCED TODAY. AN ADDITIONAL COUPLE
OF INCHES OF ACCUMULATIONS IS POSSIBLE. TEMPS WILL BE ON THE COOL
SIDE WITH GUSTY WLY WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE LONG WAVE PATTERN
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES EXIST
WITH TIMING AND STRENGTH OF INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES LEADING TO
DECREASED CONFIDENCE IN SENSIBLE WEATHER. THE OVERALL THEME IS
WESTERN RIDGE AND EASTERN TROUGH FOR THE CONUS...WITH AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE FOR SYNOPTIC
SNOWS ROUGHLY EVERY TWO DAYS...WITH FRIDAY - FRIDAY NIGHT...SUNDAY
NIGHT-MONDAY...THE MOST LIKELY TIME FRAMES FOR OUR FORECAST AREA
AT MOMENT. WE BEGIN THE PERIOD ON A QUIET NOTE UNDER RIDGING
SURFACE AND ALOFT THURSDAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVES BY FRIDAY
MORNING WITH A GENERAL SNOWFALL ENDING FRIDAY NIGHT. BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM...WEAK RIDGING FOLLOWS FOR SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. MORE
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM FOR SUNDAY NIGHT - MONDAY AS THE
BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD MAY REMAIN OFFSHORE.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...WIDESPREAD IFR AND LIFR IS DEVELOPING FROM SRN NH TO
COASTAL ME AT THIS HOUR. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE AS HEAVY SNWFL
BAND SLOWLY ROTATES NEWD. THIS WILL CONTINUE THRU EARLY AFTERNOON.
KLEB AND KHIE WILL BE SLOWER TO SEE IFR CONDITIONS...POSSIBLY
HOLDING OFF UNTIL MID MORNING OR LATER. COASTAL TERMINALS WILL
SEE NNELY WIND GUSTS NEAR 45 KTS AT TIMES. SNWFL WINDS DOWN BY TUE
EVENING...THOUGH PCPN LINGERS INTO WED. COULD SEE SCATTERED IFR
CONDITIONS WILL LINGERING SHSN.

LONG TERM...

FRI...MVFR IN SNOW WITH LCL IFR CONDS PSSBL.
      NW SFC WIND GUSTING TO 25 KT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...STORM WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR ALL
WATERS...EXCEPT FOR OUTER WATERS S OF CAPE ELIZABETH. HERE A
PERIOD OF 65 KT GUSTS APPEARS LIKELY...SO HAVE ISSUED A HURRICANE
FORCE WIND WARNING. ALSO MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY IS ALREADY
OCCURRING ON THE WATER BASED ON BUOY OBSERVATIONS. HAVE ISSUED A
FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY THRU WED MORNING AS A RESULT.

LONG TERM...

THU NIGHT - SAT...GALE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
LARGE...BATTERING WAVES ARE BUILDING THIS MORNING RIGHT AROUND
HIGH TIDE. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH A TWO FOOT STORM SURGE WILL
ALLOW PORTLAND AND HAMPTON TO REACH THEIR FLOOD STAGE. WINDS WILL
SWITCH TO THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON JUST PRIOR TO HIGH
TIDE...WHICH MAY REDUCE THE STORM SURGE.

USED THE NORTH ATLANTIC REGIONAL TEAM WAVE RUNUP MATRICES TO
FORECAST AND WARN FOR THE TWO HIGH TIDES TODAY. THE OUTPUT SHOWS
WAVE ACTION WILL ALLOW FOR LOCALLY SIGNIFICANT EROSION AS WELL AS
OVERWASH AT FORTUNES ROCKS...JENNIS...CAMP ELLIS AND FERRY BEACHES
IN MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE.

NERACOOS SPLASH-OVER NOMOGRAMS ALSO SHOWING SIGNIFICANT ISSUES AT
THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE FOR THE BEACHES SOUTH OF PORTLAND.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MEZ007>009-
     012>014.
     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MEZ018>028.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     MEZ025>028.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MEZ023-
     024.
NH...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NHZ002>009-
     011-015.
     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NHZ010-012>014.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NHZ001.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NHZ014.
MARINE...STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ150>153.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ150>154.
     HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LEGRO
SHORT TERM...LEGRO
LONG TERM...SCHWIBS
AVIATION...LEGRO/SCHWIBS
MARINE...LEGRO/SCHWIBS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...LEGRO/CANNON




000
FXUS61 KGYX 270932
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
432 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD TO JUST SOUTH OF
NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS TODAY. THE LOW WILL LINGER AROUND THROUGH
WEDNESDAY BRINGING A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO OUR REGION. ANOTHER
STORM SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING A GENERAL SNOWFALL TO THE AREA ON
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS UPDATE...00Z MODEL GUIDANCE HAS
LATCHED ONTO THE IDEA OF SLIGHTLY WEAKER S/WV FEATURE PHASING WITH
THE INITIAL STORM SYSTEM THAT EXITED THE EAST COAST YESTERDAY.
THIS HAS ALLOWED THE SYSTEM TO SLIP FURTHER E...RATHER THAN A
STRONGER CAPTURE AND TUG BACK TO THE W. GFS...CMC-
REGIONAL...ECMWF...AND NAM ALL HAVE SIMILAR IDEAS REGARDING
EVOLUTION FOR THE REST OF TODAY.

SNOWFALL...

AT THIS HOUR A VERY INTENSE BAND OF SNWFL IS MORE OR LESS
PARALLELING THE COAST...AND SLOWLY INCHING NWWD. MODELED QPF HAS
BEEN KEYING ON THE COAST OR JUST INLAND FOR SEVERAL RUNS NOW.
TOSSING QPF ASIDE AND LOOKING ALOFT...NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF
FEATURE STRONG FRONTOGENESIS AT H7. WITHIN THIS BAND OF
FRONTOGENESIS THERE IS ALSO A DEFORMATION MAXIMUM. THE STRONGEST
BANDS OF SNWFL ARE FAVORED JUST ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE
DEFORMATION MAXIMUM...WITHIN THE STRONGEST FRONTOGENESIS. AS OF
THE 06-09Z PERIOD THIS IS VERIFYING NICELY. BY 12Z MODELS SUGGEST
THIS SIGNAL PIVOTS INLAND MORE...AND BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY
THRU 18Z. DURING THIS TIME BUFKIT SOUNDINGS FOR COASTAL LOCATIONS
BRIEFLY ATTEMPT TO NEAR MOIST ABSOLUTELY UNSTABLE ABOVE H7. WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE REPORTS OF THUNDER SN...BUT AT THE VERY
LEAST CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS WILL HELP TO INCREASE SNWFL RATES TO 2-4
INCHES PER HOUR AT TIMES. HAVE ADJUSTED THE HIGHEST SNWFL AMOUNTS
TOWARDS THE COAST SOME. THE OTHER FACTOR TO CONSIDER WITH SNWFL
AMOUNTS IS VERY DRY AIR IN PLACE AND JUST N OF THE FORECAST AREA.
NLY WINDS WILL ADVECT THIS AIR SWD...ERODING THE NRN EDGE OF SNWFL
AS WE/VE SEEN FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. THAT IN COMBINATION WITH THE
EWD MODEL SHIFT WILL YIELD A MUCH SHARPER SNWFL GRADIENT THAN
ORIGINALLY FORECAST. FOR NOW ONLY SIGHTLY LOWERED AMOUNTS IN THE
N...BUT SUBSEQUENT UPDATES MAY NEED MORE AGGRESSIVE LOWERING OF
TOTALS.

WINDS...

27.00Z ECWMF CONTINUED WITH THE IDEA OF ROTATING A POTENT LOW
LEVEL JET NWD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. AT 900 MB IT
INCREASED FROM ITS PREVIOUS FORECAST TO 80 KTS. GIVEN THE DEEP
COLD AIR IN PLACE...MIXING HEIGHTS ARE QUITE HIGH FOR A NOREASTER
EVEN WITH A LARGE INVERSION IN PLACE. EVEN A FRACTION OF THIS LOW
LEVEL JET MIXING DOWN...ESPECIALLY DURING THE HEAVIEST
SNWFL...YIELDS THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS ABOVE 50 KTS NEAR THE
COAST. GIVEN THAT WINDS ARE ALREADY GUSTING ABOVE 30 KTS...THIS
SEEMS ENTIRELY REASONABLE. INCREASED WIND FORECAST SLIGHTLY FROM
PREVIOUS PACKAGE. WIND POTENTIAL DECREASES FAIRLY QUICKLY THE
FURTHER INLAND ONE GOES...BUT GUSTS AROUND 25 TO 30 KTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. BASED ON BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...BEST WIND POTENTIAL WILL
OCCUR FROM THIS MORNING THRU EARLY AFTERNOON.

TEMPS...

COLD HIGH PRES TO THE N AND NLY WINDS WILL ENSURE THAT TEMPS
REMAIN FAIRLY STATIC THRU THE DAY. EXPECT THAT MUCH OF THE EVENT
WILL SEE SNWFL IN THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS. STRONG SYSTEM TO
OUR S AND THOSE NLY WINDS WILL ALSO KEEP COASTAL FRONT
OFF SHORE...AND ANY ADDITIONAL QPF ENHANCEMENT OFF SHORE TOO. COLD
TEMPS AND STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO COMBINE TO PRODUCE BITTERLY COLD
WIND CHILLS. IF STRANDED OUT IN THE STORM...THESE CONDITIONS COULD
PRODUCE A POTENTIALLY LIFE THREATENING SITUATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRES OCCLUDES AND UPPER LOW DRIFTS ACROSS THE AREA THRU WED.
THIS WILL CONTINUE -SN FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD...THOUGH INTENSITY
WILL BE FAR LESS THAN THAT EXPERIENCED TODAY. AN ADDITIONAL COUPLE
OF INCHES OF ACCUMULATIONS IS POSSIBLE. TEMPS WILL BE ON THE COOL
SIDE WITH GUSTY WLY WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE LONG WAVE PATTERN
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES EXIST
WITH TIMING AND STRENGTH OF INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES LEADING TO
DECREASED CONFIDENCE IN SENSIBLE WEATHER. THE OVERALL THEME IS
WESTERN RIDGE AND EASTERN TROUGH FOR THE CONUS...WITH AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE FOR SYNOPTIC
SNOWS ROUGHLY EVERY TWO DAYS...WITH FRIDAY - FRIDAY NIGHT...SUNDAY
NIGHT-MONDAY...THE MOST LIKELY TIME FRAMES FOR OUR FORECAST AREA
AT MOMENT. WE BEGIN THE PERIOD ON A QUIET NOTE UNDER RIDGING
SURFACE AND ALOFT THURSDAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVES BY FRIDAY
MORNING WITH A GENERAL SNOWFALL ENDING FRIDAY NIGHT. BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM...WEAK RIDGING FOLLOWS FOR SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. MORE
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM FOR SUNDAY NIGHT - MONDAY AS THE
BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD MAY REMAIN OFFSHORE.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...WIDESPREAD IFR AND LIFR IS DEVELOPING FROM SRN NH TO
COASTAL ME AT THIS HOUR. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE AS HEAVY SNWFL
BAND SLOWLY ROTATES NEWD. THIS WILL CONTINUE THRU EARLY AFTERNOON.
KLEB AND KHIE WILL BE SLOWER TO SEE IFR CONDITIONS...POSSIBLY
HOLDING OFF UNTIL MID MORNING OR LATER. COASTAL TERMINALS WILL
SEE NNELY WIND GUSTS NEAR 45 KTS AT TIMES. SNWFL WINDS DOWN BY TUE
EVENING...THOUGH PCPN LINGERS INTO WED. COULD SEE SCATTERED IFR
CONDITIONS WILL LINGERING SHSN.

LONG TERM...

FRI...MVFR IN SNOW WITH LCL IFR CONDS PSSBL.
      NW SFC WIND GUSTING TO 25 KT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...STORM WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR ALL
WATERS...EXCEPT FOR OUTER WATERS S OF CAPE ELIZABETH. HERE A
PERIOD OF 65 KT GUSTS APPEARS LIKELY...SO HAVE ISSUED A HURRICANE
FORCE WIND WARNING. ALSO MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY IS ALREADY
OCCURRING ON THE WATER BASED ON BUOY OBSERVATIONS. HAVE ISSUED A
FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY THRU WED MORNING AS A RESULT.

LONG TERM...

THU NIGHT - SAT...GALE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
LARGE...BATTERING WAVES ARE BUILDING THIS MORNING RIGHT AROUND
HIGH TIDE. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH A TWO FOOT STORM SURGE WILL
ALLOW PORTLAND AND HAMPTON TO REACH THEIR FLOOD STAGE. WINDS WILL
SWITCH TO THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON JUST PRIOR TO HIGH
TIDE...WHICH MAY REDUCE THE STORM SURGE.

USED THE NORTH ATLANTIC REGIONAL TEAM WAVE RUNUP MATRICES TO
FORECAST AND WARN FOR THE TWO HIGH TIDES TODAY. THE OUTPUT SHOWS
WAVE ACTION WILL ALLOW FOR LOCALLY SIGNIFICANT EROSION AS WELL AS
OVERWASH AT FORTUNES ROCKS...JENNIS...CAMP ELLIS AND FERRY BEACHES
IN MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE.

NERACOOS SPLASH-OVER NOMOGRAMS ALSO SHOWING SIGNIFICANT ISSUES AT
THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE FOR THE BEACHES SOUTH OF PORTLAND.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MEZ007>009-
     012>014.
     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MEZ018>028.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     MEZ025>028.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MEZ023-
     024.
NH...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NHZ002>009-
     011-015.
     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NHZ010-012>014.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NHZ001.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NHZ014.
MARINE...STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ150>153.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ150>154.
     HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LEGRO
SHORT TERM...LEGRO
LONG TERM...SCHWIBS
AVIATION...LEGRO/SCHWIBS
MARINE...LEGRO/SCHWIBS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...LEGRO/CANNON




000
FXUS61 KCAR 270928
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
428 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF CAPE COD THIS MORNING WILL MOVE INTO
THE GULF OF MAINE THIS EVENING AND ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA WEDNESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WINTER STORM WARNINGS REMAIN UP FOR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS WITH
A BLIZZARD WARNING FOR ALL OF INTERIOR AND COASTAL DOWN EAST MAINE.
THE LATEST MSAS ANALYSIS SHOWS A 983 MB LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ABOUT
150 MILES SOUTH OF CAPE COD. THIS LOW WILL LIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST
TODAY AND ACROSS SOUTHWEST NOVA SCOTIA LATE TONIGHT. LATEST RADAR
IMAGERY SHOWS THE LEADING EDGE OF THE SNOW BEGINNING TO WORK NORTH
INTO DOWN EAST MAINE AS OF THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. EXPECT THE SNOW TO
CONTINUE TO EXPAND NORTH ACROSS THE REGION BY LATER THIS MORNING.
THE SNOW WILL BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES TODAY. AS THE LOW CONTINUES
TO TRACK OFF TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY EXPECT GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS
TO PRODUCE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW WITH WHITEOUT/BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS EXPECTED ESPECIALLY ACROSS DOWN EAST AREAS. LIGHTER
SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT BUT GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO RESULT IN BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. SNOWFALL TOTALS
THROUGH TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 6 TO 10 INCHES ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS WITH 12 TO 18 INCHES ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWN EAST
AREAS...WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE CLOSER TO
THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A DOUBLE BARRELED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CONSISTING OF THE THE DEEP
LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE NOR`EASTER AND A SECOND TRIPLE POINT LOW
WILL BE FOUND ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA AND THE SOUTHERN TIP OF LABRADOR
AT 12Z WED. THE LOWS WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY WED AS HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY MOVES EAST. THE HIGH WILL CREST OVER
NEW ENGLAND BY 12Z THU AND MOVE OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD DURING
THE DAY THU. LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH FROM THE W AND
WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN QUEBEC AND WESTERN NY STATE BY 00Z FRI.

AS FAR AS THE SENSIBLE WEATHER GOES...WE EXPECT AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW
WED MORNING TO WIND DOWN AS THE STRONG WIND DIMINISHES. THERE
WILL LIKELY EVEN BE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS BY AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WED WILL BE SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS FROM THE UPPER
TEENS NORTH TO THE MID 20S DOWN EAST. IT WILL BE SEASONABLE COLD
WED NIGHT AND DRY AND SEASONABLE THU WITH INCREASING CLOUDS IN THE
AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES. THE NEXT LOW MOVES IN FROM
THE W THU NIGHT AND DEEPENS IN THE GULF OF MAINE FRI. AN INVERTED
TROUGH WILL LIKELY EXTEND FROM THE LOW BACK ACROSS EASTERN MAINE
FRI. THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT
SNOWFALL...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS TO THE WEST. IT LOOKS LIKE ONCE WE ARE
DONE WITH THE CURRENT STORM THAT WE COULD VERY WELL NEED ANOTHER
ROUND OF WINTER STORM WATCHES FOR THE BANGOR AND KATAHDIN
REGIONS EAST. THE LOW PULLS AWAY SAT AND SHOULD LEAVE THE AREA
DRY AND COLD. THE NEXT SYSTEM MAY BRING THE CHANCE OF YET MORE
SNOW BY MON....BUT THERE ARE MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH SOME
SOLUTIONS MORE SUPPRESSED AND SOUTH OF THE REGION. TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS FOR SUN AND MON.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: WIDESPREAD LIFR/VLIFR CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY AT ALL
TERMINALS IN SNOW. GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL RESULT IN
CONSIDERABLE BLOWING SNOW ESPECIALLY KBGR/KBHB TERMINALS. IFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT IN SNOW.

SHORT TERM: MVFR WITH POCKETS OF IFR EARLY WED MORNING SHOULD
GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO VFR BY AFTERNOON. VFR WED NIGHT AND THU.
CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY LOWER TO IFR AND EVEN VLIFR FRI IN SNOW.
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR ON SAT...EXCEPT ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TERMINALS WHERE MVFR IS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT INTO TONIGHT. A
FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY IS ALSO IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT FOR
MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY. VISIBILITY WILL BE REDUCED TO LESS THAN
1 NM THROUGH TONIGHT IN SNOW.

SHORT TERM: ONCE THE STORM WARNING COMES DOWN A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
FOR THE RESIDUAL SEAS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THROUGH AROUND 00Z THU.
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SCA LEVELS WED NIGHT THROUGH
EARLY FRI.  A GALE IS POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT AS LOW PRES PULLS EAST OF
THE WATERS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AROUND THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE. HIGH TIDE
OCCURS AT 4 AM THIS MORNING...430 PM THIS AFTERNOON...AND 5 AM
WEDNESDAY MORNING.


&&

.CLIMATE...THE RECORD SNOWFALL FOR TODAY, 1/27 AT BANGOR IS 10.8"
SET IN 1963. THIS RECORD HAS A HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF BEING BROKEN.
THE RECORD AT CARIBOU IS 9.9", SET IN 1963.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR MEZ001>004.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MEZ005-006-
     010-011-031-032.
     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MEZ015>017-029-
     030.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MEZ029-030.
MARINE...STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ050>052.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DUDA
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM...CB
AVIATION...DUDA/CB
MARINE...DUDA/CB
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...DUDA
CLIMATE...CB



000
FXUS61 KCAR 270928
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
428 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF CAPE COD THIS MORNING WILL MOVE INTO
THE GULF OF MAINE THIS EVENING AND ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA WEDNESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WINTER STORM WARNINGS REMAIN UP FOR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS WITH
A BLIZZARD WARNING FOR ALL OF INTERIOR AND COASTAL DOWN EAST MAINE.
THE LATEST MSAS ANALYSIS SHOWS A 983 MB LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ABOUT
150 MILES SOUTH OF CAPE COD. THIS LOW WILL LIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST
TODAY AND ACROSS SOUTHWEST NOVA SCOTIA LATE TONIGHT. LATEST RADAR
IMAGERY SHOWS THE LEADING EDGE OF THE SNOW BEGINNING TO WORK NORTH
INTO DOWN EAST MAINE AS OF THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. EXPECT THE SNOW TO
CONTINUE TO EXPAND NORTH ACROSS THE REGION BY LATER THIS MORNING.
THE SNOW WILL BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES TODAY. AS THE LOW CONTINUES
TO TRACK OFF TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY EXPECT GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS
TO PRODUCE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW WITH WHITEOUT/BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS EXPECTED ESPECIALLY ACROSS DOWN EAST AREAS. LIGHTER
SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT BUT GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO RESULT IN BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. SNOWFALL TOTALS
THROUGH TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 6 TO 10 INCHES ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS WITH 12 TO 18 INCHES ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWN EAST
AREAS...WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE CLOSER TO
THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A DOUBLE BARRELED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CONSISTING OF THE THE DEEP
LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE NOR`EASTER AND A SECOND TRIPLE POINT LOW
WILL BE FOUND ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA AND THE SOUTHERN TIP OF LABRADOR
AT 12Z WED. THE LOWS WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY WED AS HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY MOVES EAST. THE HIGH WILL CREST OVER
NEW ENGLAND BY 12Z THU AND MOVE OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD DURING
THE DAY THU. LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH FROM THE W AND
WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN QUEBEC AND WESTERN NY STATE BY 00Z FRI.

AS FAR AS THE SENSIBLE WEATHER GOES...WE EXPECT AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW
WED MORNING TO WIND DOWN AS THE STRONG WIND DIMINISHES. THERE
WILL LIKELY EVEN BE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS BY AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WED WILL BE SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS FROM THE UPPER
TEENS NORTH TO THE MID 20S DOWN EAST. IT WILL BE SEASONABLE COLD
WED NIGHT AND DRY AND SEASONABLE THU WITH INCREASING CLOUDS IN THE
AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES. THE NEXT LOW MOVES IN FROM
THE W THU NIGHT AND DEEPENS IN THE GULF OF MAINE FRI. AN INVERTED
TROUGH WILL LIKELY EXTEND FROM THE LOW BACK ACROSS EASTERN MAINE
FRI. THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT
SNOWFALL...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS TO THE WEST. IT LOOKS LIKE ONCE WE ARE
DONE WITH THE CURRENT STORM THAT WE COULD VERY WELL NEED ANOTHER
ROUND OF WINTER STORM WATCHES FOR THE BANGOR AND KATAHDIN
REGIONS EAST. THE LOW PULLS AWAY SAT AND SHOULD LEAVE THE AREA
DRY AND COLD. THE NEXT SYSTEM MAY BRING THE CHANCE OF YET MORE
SNOW BY MON....BUT THERE ARE MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH SOME
SOLUTIONS MORE SUPPRESSED AND SOUTH OF THE REGION. TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS FOR SUN AND MON.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: WIDESPREAD LIFR/VLIFR CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY AT ALL
TERMINALS IN SNOW. GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL RESULT IN
CONSIDERABLE BLOWING SNOW ESPECIALLY KBGR/KBHB TERMINALS. IFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT IN SNOW.

SHORT TERM: MVFR WITH POCKETS OF IFR EARLY WED MORNING SHOULD
GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO VFR BY AFTERNOON. VFR WED NIGHT AND THU.
CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY LOWER TO IFR AND EVEN VLIFR FRI IN SNOW.
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR ON SAT...EXCEPT ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TERMINALS WHERE MVFR IS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT INTO TONIGHT. A
FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY IS ALSO IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT FOR
MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY. VISIBILITY WILL BE REDUCED TO LESS THAN
1 NM THROUGH TONIGHT IN SNOW.

SHORT TERM: ONCE THE STORM WARNING COMES DOWN A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
FOR THE RESIDUAL SEAS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THROUGH AROUND 00Z THU.
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SCA LEVELS WED NIGHT THROUGH
EARLY FRI.  A GALE IS POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT AS LOW PRES PULLS EAST OF
THE WATERS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AROUND THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE. HIGH TIDE
OCCURS AT 4 AM THIS MORNING...430 PM THIS AFTERNOON...AND 5 AM
WEDNESDAY MORNING.


&&

.CLIMATE...THE RECORD SNOWFALL FOR TODAY, 1/27 AT BANGOR IS 10.8"
SET IN 1963. THIS RECORD HAS A HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF BEING BROKEN.
THE RECORD AT CARIBOU IS 9.9", SET IN 1963.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR MEZ001>004.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MEZ005-006-
     010-011-031-032.
     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MEZ015>017-029-
     030.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MEZ029-030.
MARINE...STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ050>052.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DUDA
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM...CB
AVIATION...DUDA/CB
MARINE...DUDA/CB
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...DUDA
CLIMATE...CB



000
FXUS61 KCAR 270928
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
428 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF CAPE COD THIS MORNING WILL MOVE INTO
THE GULF OF MAINE THIS EVENING AND ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA WEDNESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WINTER STORM WARNINGS REMAIN UP FOR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS WITH
A BLIZZARD WARNING FOR ALL OF INTERIOR AND COASTAL DOWN EAST MAINE.
THE LATEST MSAS ANALYSIS SHOWS A 983 MB LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ABOUT
150 MILES SOUTH OF CAPE COD. THIS LOW WILL LIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST
TODAY AND ACROSS SOUTHWEST NOVA SCOTIA LATE TONIGHT. LATEST RADAR
IMAGERY SHOWS THE LEADING EDGE OF THE SNOW BEGINNING TO WORK NORTH
INTO DOWN EAST MAINE AS OF THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. EXPECT THE SNOW TO
CONTINUE TO EXPAND NORTH ACROSS THE REGION BY LATER THIS MORNING.
THE SNOW WILL BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES TODAY. AS THE LOW CONTINUES
TO TRACK OFF TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY EXPECT GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS
TO PRODUCE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW WITH WHITEOUT/BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS EXPECTED ESPECIALLY ACROSS DOWN EAST AREAS. LIGHTER
SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT BUT GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO RESULT IN BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. SNOWFALL TOTALS
THROUGH TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 6 TO 10 INCHES ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS WITH 12 TO 18 INCHES ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWN EAST
AREAS...WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE CLOSER TO
THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A DOUBLE BARRELED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CONSISTING OF THE THE DEEP
LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE NOR`EASTER AND A SECOND TRIPLE POINT LOW
WILL BE FOUND ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA AND THE SOUTHERN TIP OF LABRADOR
AT 12Z WED. THE LOWS WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY WED AS HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY MOVES EAST. THE HIGH WILL CREST OVER
NEW ENGLAND BY 12Z THU AND MOVE OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD DURING
THE DAY THU. LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH FROM THE W AND
WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN QUEBEC AND WESTERN NY STATE BY 00Z FRI.

AS FAR AS THE SENSIBLE WEATHER GOES...WE EXPECT AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW
WED MORNING TO WIND DOWN AS THE STRONG WIND DIMINISHES. THERE
WILL LIKELY EVEN BE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS BY AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WED WILL BE SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS FROM THE UPPER
TEENS NORTH TO THE MID 20S DOWN EAST. IT WILL BE SEASONABLE COLD
WED NIGHT AND DRY AND SEASONABLE THU WITH INCREASING CLOUDS IN THE
AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES. THE NEXT LOW MOVES IN FROM
THE W THU NIGHT AND DEEPENS IN THE GULF OF MAINE FRI. AN INVERTED
TROUGH WILL LIKELY EXTEND FROM THE LOW BACK ACROSS EASTERN MAINE
FRI. THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT
SNOWFALL...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS TO THE WEST. IT LOOKS LIKE ONCE WE ARE
DONE WITH THE CURRENT STORM THAT WE COULD VERY WELL NEED ANOTHER
ROUND OF WINTER STORM WATCHES FOR THE BANGOR AND KATAHDIN
REGIONS EAST. THE LOW PULLS AWAY SAT AND SHOULD LEAVE THE AREA
DRY AND COLD. THE NEXT SYSTEM MAY BRING THE CHANCE OF YET MORE
SNOW BY MON....BUT THERE ARE MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH SOME
SOLUTIONS MORE SUPPRESSED AND SOUTH OF THE REGION. TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS FOR SUN AND MON.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: WIDESPREAD LIFR/VLIFR CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY AT ALL
TERMINALS IN SNOW. GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL RESULT IN
CONSIDERABLE BLOWING SNOW ESPECIALLY KBGR/KBHB TERMINALS. IFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT IN SNOW.

SHORT TERM: MVFR WITH POCKETS OF IFR EARLY WED MORNING SHOULD
GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO VFR BY AFTERNOON. VFR WED NIGHT AND THU.
CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY LOWER TO IFR AND EVEN VLIFR FRI IN SNOW.
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR ON SAT...EXCEPT ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TERMINALS WHERE MVFR IS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT INTO TONIGHT. A
FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY IS ALSO IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT FOR
MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY. VISIBILITY WILL BE REDUCED TO LESS THAN
1 NM THROUGH TONIGHT IN SNOW.

SHORT TERM: ONCE THE STORM WARNING COMES DOWN A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
FOR THE RESIDUAL SEAS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THROUGH AROUND 00Z THU.
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SCA LEVELS WED NIGHT THROUGH
EARLY FRI.  A GALE IS POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT AS LOW PRES PULLS EAST OF
THE WATERS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AROUND THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE. HIGH TIDE
OCCURS AT 4 AM THIS MORNING...430 PM THIS AFTERNOON...AND 5 AM
WEDNESDAY MORNING.


&&

.CLIMATE...THE RECORD SNOWFALL FOR TODAY, 1/27 AT BANGOR IS 10.8"
SET IN 1963. THIS RECORD HAS A HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF BEING BROKEN.
THE RECORD AT CARIBOU IS 9.9", SET IN 1963.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR MEZ001>004.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MEZ005-006-
     010-011-031-032.
     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MEZ015>017-029-
     030.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MEZ029-030.
MARINE...STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ050>052.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DUDA
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM...CB
AVIATION...DUDA/CB
MARINE...DUDA/CB
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...DUDA
CLIMATE...CB



000
FXUS61 KCAR 270928
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
428 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF CAPE COD THIS MORNING WILL MOVE INTO
THE GULF OF MAINE THIS EVENING AND ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA WEDNESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WINTER STORM WARNINGS REMAIN UP FOR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS WITH
A BLIZZARD WARNING FOR ALL OF INTERIOR AND COASTAL DOWN EAST MAINE.
THE LATEST MSAS ANALYSIS SHOWS A 983 MB LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ABOUT
150 MILES SOUTH OF CAPE COD. THIS LOW WILL LIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST
TODAY AND ACROSS SOUTHWEST NOVA SCOTIA LATE TONIGHT. LATEST RADAR
IMAGERY SHOWS THE LEADING EDGE OF THE SNOW BEGINNING TO WORK NORTH
INTO DOWN EAST MAINE AS OF THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. EXPECT THE SNOW TO
CONTINUE TO EXPAND NORTH ACROSS THE REGION BY LATER THIS MORNING.
THE SNOW WILL BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES TODAY. AS THE LOW CONTINUES
TO TRACK OFF TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY EXPECT GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS
TO PRODUCE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW WITH WHITEOUT/BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS EXPECTED ESPECIALLY ACROSS DOWN EAST AREAS. LIGHTER
SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT BUT GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO RESULT IN BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. SNOWFALL TOTALS
THROUGH TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 6 TO 10 INCHES ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS WITH 12 TO 18 INCHES ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWN EAST
AREAS...WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE CLOSER TO
THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A DOUBLE BARRELED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CONSISTING OF THE THE DEEP
LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE NOR`EASTER AND A SECOND TRIPLE POINT LOW
WILL BE FOUND ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA AND THE SOUTHERN TIP OF LABRADOR
AT 12Z WED. THE LOWS WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY WED AS HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY MOVES EAST. THE HIGH WILL CREST OVER
NEW ENGLAND BY 12Z THU AND MOVE OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD DURING
THE DAY THU. LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH FROM THE W AND
WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN QUEBEC AND WESTERN NY STATE BY 00Z FRI.

AS FAR AS THE SENSIBLE WEATHER GOES...WE EXPECT AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW
WED MORNING TO WIND DOWN AS THE STRONG WIND DIMINISHES. THERE
WILL LIKELY EVEN BE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS BY AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WED WILL BE SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS FROM THE UPPER
TEENS NORTH TO THE MID 20S DOWN EAST. IT WILL BE SEASONABLE COLD
WED NIGHT AND DRY AND SEASONABLE THU WITH INCREASING CLOUDS IN THE
AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES. THE NEXT LOW MOVES IN FROM
THE W THU NIGHT AND DEEPENS IN THE GULF OF MAINE FRI. AN INVERTED
TROUGH WILL LIKELY EXTEND FROM THE LOW BACK ACROSS EASTERN MAINE
FRI. THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT
SNOWFALL...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS TO THE WEST. IT LOOKS LIKE ONCE WE ARE
DONE WITH THE CURRENT STORM THAT WE COULD VERY WELL NEED ANOTHER
ROUND OF WINTER STORM WATCHES FOR THE BANGOR AND KATAHDIN
REGIONS EAST. THE LOW PULLS AWAY SAT AND SHOULD LEAVE THE AREA
DRY AND COLD. THE NEXT SYSTEM MAY BRING THE CHANCE OF YET MORE
SNOW BY MON....BUT THERE ARE MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH SOME
SOLUTIONS MORE SUPPRESSED AND SOUTH OF THE REGION. TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS FOR SUN AND MON.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: WIDESPREAD LIFR/VLIFR CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY AT ALL
TERMINALS IN SNOW. GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL RESULT IN
CONSIDERABLE BLOWING SNOW ESPECIALLY KBGR/KBHB TERMINALS. IFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT IN SNOW.

SHORT TERM: MVFR WITH POCKETS OF IFR EARLY WED MORNING SHOULD
GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO VFR BY AFTERNOON. VFR WED NIGHT AND THU.
CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY LOWER TO IFR AND EVEN VLIFR FRI IN SNOW.
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR ON SAT...EXCEPT ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TERMINALS WHERE MVFR IS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT INTO TONIGHT. A
FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY IS ALSO IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT FOR
MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY. VISIBILITY WILL BE REDUCED TO LESS THAN
1 NM THROUGH TONIGHT IN SNOW.

SHORT TERM: ONCE THE STORM WARNING COMES DOWN A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
FOR THE RESIDUAL SEAS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THROUGH AROUND 00Z THU.
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SCA LEVELS WED NIGHT THROUGH
EARLY FRI.  A GALE IS POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT AS LOW PRES PULLS EAST OF
THE WATERS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AROUND THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE. HIGH TIDE
OCCURS AT 4 AM THIS MORNING...430 PM THIS AFTERNOON...AND 5 AM
WEDNESDAY MORNING.


&&

.CLIMATE...THE RECORD SNOWFALL FOR TODAY, 1/27 AT BANGOR IS 10.8"
SET IN 1963. THIS RECORD HAS A HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF BEING BROKEN.
THE RECORD AT CARIBOU IS 9.9", SET IN 1963.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR MEZ001>004.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MEZ005-006-
     010-011-031-032.
     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MEZ015>017-029-
     030.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MEZ029-030.
MARINE...STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ050>052.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DUDA
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM...CB
AVIATION...DUDA/CB
MARINE...DUDA/CB
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...DUDA
CLIMATE...CB



000
FXUS61 KCAR 270544
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1244 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY ALONG THE SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND COAST OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE LOW WILL THEN LIFT
ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
UPDATE: ONLY CHANGE TO THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST WAS TO RAISE
LOW TEMPERATURES AS INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL PREVENT
TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING AS LOW AS PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED. NO
OTHER CHANGES.

ORGNL DISC: THE LATEST FORECAST GUIDANCE ON THE MAJOR WINTER
STORM EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY IS VERY CONSISTENT WITH
PREVIOUS RUNS WITH POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO BE CENTERED
JUST SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. WE`RE
EXPECTING SNOW TO MOVE ONTO THE DOWNEAST COAST AROUND OR SOON
AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THEN PROGRESS NORTH REACHING NORTHERN MAINE
LATE MORNING TUESDAY. CONDITIONS WILL RAPIDLY DETERIORATE DOWNEAST
LATE TONIGHT. TUESDAY MORNING WILL BRING BLIZZARD CONDITIONS
DOWNEAST WHERE A BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT. WINTER STORM
WARNINGS REMAIN UP FOR CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS. COLD
TEMPERATURES MEANS THE SNOW WILL BE DRY AND WILL EASILY BLOW
AROUND RESULTING IN WHITEOUT CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY DOWNEAST.
TOTAL AMOUNTS FROM AROUND 18 INCHES DOWNEAST TO 10 INCHES UP NORTH
ARE STILL EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ON TUESDAY NIGHT...THE VERTICALLY-STACKED LOW WILL BE POSITIONED
OFF CAPE COD AND START FILLING. THE OCCLUSION THAT BROUGHT
TUESDAY`S HEAVY SNOWFALL WILL WEAKEN IN NORTHERN ZONES. STRONG NNE
WINDS WILL CONTINUE WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR THE
ENTIRE AREA EXCEPT DOWN EAST WHERE READINGS WILL BE IN THE LOW
TEENS THROUGH THE NIGHT. BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW WILL BE AN
ISSUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE COLD TEMPERATURES WILL CREATE A VERY
LIGHTWEIGHT SNOW THAT WILL EASILY BECOME AIRBORNE AND REDUCE
VISIBILITIES. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
NIGHT...AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON THE ORDER OF AN ADDITIONAL
THREE TO FOUR INCHES ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. MORE QPF WILL OCCUR
IN SOUTHERN ZONES CLOSER TO THE UPPER LOW...BUT SNOW RATIOS WILL
BE HIGHER NORTH. SNOW RATIOS WILL BE REDUCED BY STRONG WINDS AS
WELL AS A WARM NOSE JUST ABOVE H850 TOWARDS THE COAST. THE LOW
WILL TRACK TOWARDS NOVA SCOTIA OVERNIGHT. WILL FOLLOW THE
GEFS/SREF TRACK AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP PATTERN FOR NOW. THE EXACT
PATH AND SPEED OF THE CUT-OFF SYSTEM STILL REMAINS IN QUESTION ON
TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT ALL GUIDANCE AGREES THAT THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE
EAST OF THE AREA BY LATER WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE CLOSED LOW
CONTINUES TO DECAY AND TRANSITIONS TO AN OPEN WAVE IN THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES. AS A RESULT...ACCUMULATING SNOW ENDS WEDNESDAY MORNING
AND TRANSITIONS TO SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES. DRIFTING SNOW WILL
CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE ALL DAY. CLEARING SKIES ARRIVE WEDNESDAY
EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS. WINDS WILL DIE OFF LATER AND
DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD OCCUR WITH THE FRESH SNOWPACK.
HAVE GONE BELOW GUIDANCE WITH READINGS AS LOW AS TEN BELOW IN THE
ALLAGASH. HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THURSDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
HIGHS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S. HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE LATER
IN THE DAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE AT
THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A
CHANCE OF SNOW. THE LOW WILL INTENSIFY WHILE CROSSING THE REGION
FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE LOW WILL BRING ACCUMULATING
SNOW TO THE REGION FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...THOUGH AMOUNTS
ARE STILL UNCERTAIN. WRAP AROUND SNOWS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
REGION INTO SATURDAY WHILE THE LOW EXITS ACROSS THE MARITIMES WITH
ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. UNCERTAINTY THEN
EXISTS REGARDING POSSIBLE LOW PRESSURE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS FRIDAY...AT SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL LEVELS SATURDAY THEN AT MUCH BELOW NORMAL LEVELS
SUNDAY/MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING WILL DROP TO IFR DOWNEAST
AFTER MIDNIGHT THEN IFR AROUND MIDDAY ACROSS THE NORTH. LIFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DOWNEAST TUESDAY WITH CONDITIONS DROPPING
TO IFR ACROSS THE NORTH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM: IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW ARE ANTICIPATED TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL BECOME VFR WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND REMAIN VFR THROUGH THURSDAY. CONDITIONS WILL LOWER
TO MVFR/IFR LEVELS THURSDAY NIGHT. IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY...WITH VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS
LATER SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: 950 PM UPDATE...WE USED CG1 WV GUIDANCE TO BUMP WV HTS
OVR INNER BAY/HARBOR MZ052...SPCLY FOR LATE TNGT THRU WED.
OTHERWISE...WW3 WV GUIDANCE WHICH SHOWS MAX WV HTS OF 20 TO 22 FT
OVR OUTER MZS050-051 CONTINUES TO LOOK REASONABLE.

ORGNL DISC...A STORM WARNING REMAINS UP FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS
FOR NORTHEAST WINDS RAPIDLY INCREASING TONIGHT AND REACHING GUSTS
UP TO 50 KT BY EARLY TUESDAY. STORM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY.

SHORT TERM: STORM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
DECREASE TO GALE CONDITIONS LATER IN THE NIGHT. SEAS COULD
APPROACH 20 FT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. THE GALE ENDS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND GIVE WAY TO AN SCA THAT WILL LAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME MINOR SHORELINE FLOODING AT SPLASHOVER AT THE TIMES OF HIGH
TIDE, WHICH ARE 4 AM TONIGHT AND 4:30 PM TUESDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 PM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR MEZ001>004.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO 1 PM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR MEZ005-006-010-011-031-032.
     BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 4 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO 4 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR MEZ015>017-029-030.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MEZ029-030.
MARINE...STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DUDA/VJN
SHORT TERM...MCW
LONG TERM...NORCROSS
AVIATION...DUDA/VJN/MCW
MARINE...DUDA/VJN/MCW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



000
FXUS61 KCAR 270544
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1244 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY ALONG THE SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND COAST OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE LOW WILL THEN LIFT
ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
UPDATE: ONLY CHANGE TO THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST WAS TO RAISE
LOW TEMPERATURES AS INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL PREVENT
TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING AS LOW AS PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED. NO
OTHER CHANGES.

ORGNL DISC: THE LATEST FORECAST GUIDANCE ON THE MAJOR WINTER
STORM EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY IS VERY CONSISTENT WITH
PREVIOUS RUNS WITH POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO BE CENTERED
JUST SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. WE`RE
EXPECTING SNOW TO MOVE ONTO THE DOWNEAST COAST AROUND OR SOON
AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THEN PROGRESS NORTH REACHING NORTHERN MAINE
LATE MORNING TUESDAY. CONDITIONS WILL RAPIDLY DETERIORATE DOWNEAST
LATE TONIGHT. TUESDAY MORNING WILL BRING BLIZZARD CONDITIONS
DOWNEAST WHERE A BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT. WINTER STORM
WARNINGS REMAIN UP FOR CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS. COLD
TEMPERATURES MEANS THE SNOW WILL BE DRY AND WILL EASILY BLOW
AROUND RESULTING IN WHITEOUT CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY DOWNEAST.
TOTAL AMOUNTS FROM AROUND 18 INCHES DOWNEAST TO 10 INCHES UP NORTH
ARE STILL EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ON TUESDAY NIGHT...THE VERTICALLY-STACKED LOW WILL BE POSITIONED
OFF CAPE COD AND START FILLING. THE OCCLUSION THAT BROUGHT
TUESDAY`S HEAVY SNOWFALL WILL WEAKEN IN NORTHERN ZONES. STRONG NNE
WINDS WILL CONTINUE WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR THE
ENTIRE AREA EXCEPT DOWN EAST WHERE READINGS WILL BE IN THE LOW
TEENS THROUGH THE NIGHT. BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW WILL BE AN
ISSUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE COLD TEMPERATURES WILL CREATE A VERY
LIGHTWEIGHT SNOW THAT WILL EASILY BECOME AIRBORNE AND REDUCE
VISIBILITIES. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
NIGHT...AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON THE ORDER OF AN ADDITIONAL
THREE TO FOUR INCHES ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. MORE QPF WILL OCCUR
IN SOUTHERN ZONES CLOSER TO THE UPPER LOW...BUT SNOW RATIOS WILL
BE HIGHER NORTH. SNOW RATIOS WILL BE REDUCED BY STRONG WINDS AS
WELL AS A WARM NOSE JUST ABOVE H850 TOWARDS THE COAST. THE LOW
WILL TRACK TOWARDS NOVA SCOTIA OVERNIGHT. WILL FOLLOW THE
GEFS/SREF TRACK AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP PATTERN FOR NOW. THE EXACT
PATH AND SPEED OF THE CUT-OFF SYSTEM STILL REMAINS IN QUESTION ON
TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT ALL GUIDANCE AGREES THAT THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE
EAST OF THE AREA BY LATER WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE CLOSED LOW
CONTINUES TO DECAY AND TRANSITIONS TO AN OPEN WAVE IN THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES. AS A RESULT...ACCUMULATING SNOW ENDS WEDNESDAY MORNING
AND TRANSITIONS TO SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES. DRIFTING SNOW WILL
CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE ALL DAY. CLEARING SKIES ARRIVE WEDNESDAY
EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS. WINDS WILL DIE OFF LATER AND
DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD OCCUR WITH THE FRESH SNOWPACK.
HAVE GONE BELOW GUIDANCE WITH READINGS AS LOW AS TEN BELOW IN THE
ALLAGASH. HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THURSDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
HIGHS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S. HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE LATER
IN THE DAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE AT
THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A
CHANCE OF SNOW. THE LOW WILL INTENSIFY WHILE CROSSING THE REGION
FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE LOW WILL BRING ACCUMULATING
SNOW TO THE REGION FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...THOUGH AMOUNTS
ARE STILL UNCERTAIN. WRAP AROUND SNOWS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
REGION INTO SATURDAY WHILE THE LOW EXITS ACROSS THE MARITIMES WITH
ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. UNCERTAINTY THEN
EXISTS REGARDING POSSIBLE LOW PRESSURE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS FRIDAY...AT SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL LEVELS SATURDAY THEN AT MUCH BELOW NORMAL LEVELS
SUNDAY/MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING WILL DROP TO IFR DOWNEAST
AFTER MIDNIGHT THEN IFR AROUND MIDDAY ACROSS THE NORTH. LIFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DOWNEAST TUESDAY WITH CONDITIONS DROPPING
TO IFR ACROSS THE NORTH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM: IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW ARE ANTICIPATED TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL BECOME VFR WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND REMAIN VFR THROUGH THURSDAY. CONDITIONS WILL LOWER
TO MVFR/IFR LEVELS THURSDAY NIGHT. IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY...WITH VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS
LATER SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: 950 PM UPDATE...WE USED CG1 WV GUIDANCE TO BUMP WV HTS
OVR INNER BAY/HARBOR MZ052...SPCLY FOR LATE TNGT THRU WED.
OTHERWISE...WW3 WV GUIDANCE WHICH SHOWS MAX WV HTS OF 20 TO 22 FT
OVR OUTER MZS050-051 CONTINUES TO LOOK REASONABLE.

ORGNL DISC...A STORM WARNING REMAINS UP FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS
FOR NORTHEAST WINDS RAPIDLY INCREASING TONIGHT AND REACHING GUSTS
UP TO 50 KT BY EARLY TUESDAY. STORM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY.

SHORT TERM: STORM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
DECREASE TO GALE CONDITIONS LATER IN THE NIGHT. SEAS COULD
APPROACH 20 FT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. THE GALE ENDS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND GIVE WAY TO AN SCA THAT WILL LAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME MINOR SHORELINE FLOODING AT SPLASHOVER AT THE TIMES OF HIGH
TIDE, WHICH ARE 4 AM TONIGHT AND 4:30 PM TUESDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 PM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR MEZ001>004.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO 1 PM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR MEZ005-006-010-011-031-032.
     BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 4 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO 4 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR MEZ015>017-029-030.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MEZ029-030.
MARINE...STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DUDA/VJN
SHORT TERM...MCW
LONG TERM...NORCROSS
AVIATION...DUDA/VJN/MCW
MARINE...DUDA/VJN/MCW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KGYX 270456 AAA
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1156 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
TODAY THEN RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD TO JUST
SOUTH OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS ON TUESDAY. THE LOW WILL LINGER
AROUND THROUGH WEDNESDAY BRINGING A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO OUR
REGION. THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER STORM LATE WEEK OR
EARLY IN THE WEEKEND BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
UPDATE...TOP DOWN SATURATION IS SLOWLY TRYING TO GET MORE
WIDESPREAD SNWFL INTO THE FORECAST AREA AT THIS HOUR. 00Z GYX
SOUNDING SHOWS PRONOUNCED DRY LAYER AT H8...WHICH SHOULD BE ERASED
IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS FOR COASTAL ME. ADJUSTED POP TO
REFLECT A SLIGHT DELAY...BUT QUICKLY NWD EXPANDING PCPN SHIELD.

ALSO THINKING AHEAD TO THE LARGER PART OF THE FORECAST TO COME IN
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. 00Z RAOB OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS 27.00Z CMC-
REGIONAL AND GFS VERIFYING BETTER THAN 26.12Z ECMWF FOR H5 HEIGHTS
INVOF DEVELOPING UPPER LOW PRES. THIS IS IMPORTANT BECAUSE 00Z
MODELS HAVE SHIFTED E WITH HEAVIEST QPF. A DEEPER H5 SCENARIO LIKE
THE ECMWF WOULD ACT TO CAPTURE AND PULL SURFACE LOW PRES FARTHER
W...INCLUDING THE QPF. SO 00Z ECMWF SHOULD BE IMPORTANT IN
DETERMINING WHERE TO INTRODUCE SHARPER WRN CUT OFF TO SNWFL
TOTALS.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
SNOW SHOWERS HAVE ALREADY BEGUN DUE TO OCEAN EFFECT AND INCREASED
MOISTURE. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL INCREASE IN EARNEST TONIGHT AND
WE SHOULD HAVE SNOW SPREADING ACROSS SOUTHERN NH AND COASTAL MAINE
OVERNIGHT. IN FACT SEVERAL INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE BY DAYBREAK IN
THESE LOCATIONS. TEMPERATURES TUMBLE IN THE NORTH TONIGHT AS COLD
AIR IS PULLED TOWARDS THE APPROACHING STORM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
NEW NAM AND GFS ARE MORE PROGRESSIVE TODAY... HOWEVER THE
EUROPEAN... WHICH GENERALLY HANDLES WINTER STORMS VERY WELL... IS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE CANADIAN WHICH INCREASES THE QPF AND
WIND FIELDS ACROSS THE OUR REGION. THE EUROPEAN GETS CAUGHT IN THE
UPPER LEVEL FLOW AS THE UPPER TROUGH TILTS NEGATIVELY AND NOT ONLY
STALLS BUT RETROGRADES SLIGHTLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON... MEANDERING
AROUND THE BENCHMARK... AND DEEPENING SLIGHTLY MORE THAN THE OTHER
MODELS AS IT DOES SO. NEEDLESS TO SAY THE WIND FIELDS REMAIN VERY
IMPRESSIVE.

CURRENTLY THE STORM IS LOCATED OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA AND IS
AROUND 998 MB. WINDS ARE LOOKING NORTHERLY FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE
EVENT NOW AS THE SYSTEM WRAPS UP AND IS PULLED CLOSER TO THE
COAST. MESOSCALE MODELS ARE ALSO SHOWING AN EYE FEATURE SIMILAR
TO A HURRICANE... WHICH ARE PROMINENT ON STRONG MID LATITUDE
CYCLONES. IN ADDITION THE MAIN BANDING FEATURE(S) SHOULD BE
ORIENTED SSW TO NNE... FROM NEAR PORTSMOUTH NH TO LEWISTON ME TO
HARMONY ME EVENTUALLY AS THEY ROTATES ONSHORE. DUE TO THE ABOVE
MODEL CHANGES AND THE BANDING FEATURES MENTIONED... SNOWFALL
TOTALS WERE BUMPED UP SLIGHTLY. OTHERWISE NO WHOLESALE CHANGES...
AND HEADLINES REMAIN THE SAME EXCEPT FOR UPGRADING THE COASTAL
STORM WATCHES TO WARNINGS.

K INDICES INCREASE TO NEAR 20 ALONG CAPE COD AND DOWNEAST
INDICATING THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSNOW LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST AND OUT TO SEA WEDNESDAY. THE
EXIT SPEED WILL BE MODEL DETERMINANT...HOWEVER THE EURO IS THE
LEAST PROGRESSIVE AND STALLS OVER NANTUCKET BEFORE SLOWLY MOVE
THROUGH THE GULF OF MAINE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW. ON FRIDAY...CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS ONCE
AGAIN OVER THE NEW ENGLAND WATERS. THE EURO SOLUTION REMAINS VERY
INTERESTING...WITH LOW PRESSURE RAPIDLY DEEPENING IN THE GULF OF
MAINE. THIS COULD BE AN INTERESTING EVENT AS WELL IF THE SYSTEM
CUTS OFF SOON ENOUGH TO OUR SOUTH.

VERY COLD ARCTIC AIR POURS IN FOR THE WEEKEND WITH SOME OF THE
COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE QUICKLY TONIGHT TO
MVFR AS CLOUDS LOWER AND THICKEN IN INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
SNOW AFFECTING CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES AS FAR NORTH AS A KLEB
TO KAUG LINE ARE LIKELY BY 12Z...CREATING LIFR OR LOWER
CONDITIONS. ALL TERMINALS WILL DROP TO THESE LEVELS TUESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH THE LIKELY EXCEPTION OF WHITEFIELD.

LONG TERM...
CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY BE IMPROVING WEDNESDAY. LOCALLY...IFR
CONDITIONS RETURNING FRIDAY IN ANOTHER COASTAL LOW.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...STORM WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY WITH
VERY STRONG WINDS AND SEAS AS HIGH AS 25`.

LONG TERM...
WINDS AND WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE WEDNESDAY. GALE FORCE WINDS
MAY RETURN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
LARGE...BATTERING WAVES WILL BE BUILDING LATE TONIGHT RIGHT AROUND
HIGH TIDE. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH A TWO FOOT STORM SURGE WILL
ALLOW PORTLAND AND HAMPTON TO REACH THEIR FLOOD STAGE. WINDS WILL
SWITCH TO THE NORTH TOMORROW AFTERNOON JUST PRIOR TO HIGH
TIDE...WHICH MAY REDUCE THE STORM SURGE. THIS IS VERY MODEL
DEPENDENT HOWEVER WITH THE EURO DANGEROUSLY BACKING IN THE STORM
TO NANTUCKET ISLAND.

USED THE NORTH ATLANTIC REGIONAL TEAM WAVE RUNUP MATRICES TO
FORECAST AND WARN FOR THE TWO TUESDAY HIGH TIDES. THE OUTPUT SHOWS
WAVE ACTION WILL ALLOW FOR LOCALLY SIGNIFICANT EROSION AS WELL AS
OVERWASH AT FORTUNES ROCKS...JENNIS...CAMP ELLIS AND FERRY BEACHES
IN MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE.

NERACOOS SPLASH-OVER NOMOGRAMS ALSO SHOWING SIGNIFICANT ISSUES AT
THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE FOR THE BEACHES SOUTH OF PORTLAND.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MEZ007>009-
     012>014.
     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MEZ018>028.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR MEZ025>028.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR MEZ023-024.
NH...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NHZ002>009-
     011-015.
     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NHZ010-012>014.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NHZ001.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR NHZ014.
MARINE...STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LEGRO




000
FXUS61 KGYX 270456 AAA
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1156 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
TODAY THEN RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD TO JUST
SOUTH OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS ON TUESDAY. THE LOW WILL LINGER
AROUND THROUGH WEDNESDAY BRINGING A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO OUR
REGION. THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER STORM LATE WEEK OR
EARLY IN THE WEEKEND BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
UPDATE...TOP DOWN SATURATION IS SLOWLY TRYING TO GET MORE
WIDESPREAD SNWFL INTO THE FORECAST AREA AT THIS HOUR. 00Z GYX
SOUNDING SHOWS PRONOUNCED DRY LAYER AT H8...WHICH SHOULD BE ERASED
IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS FOR COASTAL ME. ADJUSTED POP TO
REFLECT A SLIGHT DELAY...BUT QUICKLY NWD EXPANDING PCPN SHIELD.

ALSO THINKING AHEAD TO THE LARGER PART OF THE FORECAST TO COME IN
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. 00Z RAOB OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS 27.00Z CMC-
REGIONAL AND GFS VERIFYING BETTER THAN 26.12Z ECMWF FOR H5 HEIGHTS
INVOF DEVELOPING UPPER LOW PRES. THIS IS IMPORTANT BECAUSE 00Z
MODELS HAVE SHIFTED E WITH HEAVIEST QPF. A DEEPER H5 SCENARIO LIKE
THE ECMWF WOULD ACT TO CAPTURE AND PULL SURFACE LOW PRES FARTHER
W...INCLUDING THE QPF. SO 00Z ECMWF SHOULD BE IMPORTANT IN
DETERMINING WHERE TO INTRODUCE SHARPER WRN CUT OFF TO SNWFL
TOTALS.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
SNOW SHOWERS HAVE ALREADY BEGUN DUE TO OCEAN EFFECT AND INCREASED
MOISTURE. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL INCREASE IN EARNEST TONIGHT AND
WE SHOULD HAVE SNOW SPREADING ACROSS SOUTHERN NH AND COASTAL MAINE
OVERNIGHT. IN FACT SEVERAL INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE BY DAYBREAK IN
THESE LOCATIONS. TEMPERATURES TUMBLE IN THE NORTH TONIGHT AS COLD
AIR IS PULLED TOWARDS THE APPROACHING STORM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
NEW NAM AND GFS ARE MORE PROGRESSIVE TODAY... HOWEVER THE
EUROPEAN... WHICH GENERALLY HANDLES WINTER STORMS VERY WELL... IS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE CANADIAN WHICH INCREASES THE QPF AND
WIND FIELDS ACROSS THE OUR REGION. THE EUROPEAN GETS CAUGHT IN THE
UPPER LEVEL FLOW AS THE UPPER TROUGH TILTS NEGATIVELY AND NOT ONLY
STALLS BUT RETROGRADES SLIGHTLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON... MEANDERING
AROUND THE BENCHMARK... AND DEEPENING SLIGHTLY MORE THAN THE OTHER
MODELS AS IT DOES SO. NEEDLESS TO SAY THE WIND FIELDS REMAIN VERY
IMPRESSIVE.

CURRENTLY THE STORM IS LOCATED OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA AND IS
AROUND 998 MB. WINDS ARE LOOKING NORTHERLY FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE
EVENT NOW AS THE SYSTEM WRAPS UP AND IS PULLED CLOSER TO THE
COAST. MESOSCALE MODELS ARE ALSO SHOWING AN EYE FEATURE SIMILAR
TO A HURRICANE... WHICH ARE PROMINENT ON STRONG MID LATITUDE
CYCLONES. IN ADDITION THE MAIN BANDING FEATURE(S) SHOULD BE
ORIENTED SSW TO NNE... FROM NEAR PORTSMOUTH NH TO LEWISTON ME TO
HARMONY ME EVENTUALLY AS THEY ROTATES ONSHORE. DUE TO THE ABOVE
MODEL CHANGES AND THE BANDING FEATURES MENTIONED... SNOWFALL
TOTALS WERE BUMPED UP SLIGHTLY. OTHERWISE NO WHOLESALE CHANGES...
AND HEADLINES REMAIN THE SAME EXCEPT FOR UPGRADING THE COASTAL
STORM WATCHES TO WARNINGS.

K INDICES INCREASE TO NEAR 20 ALONG CAPE COD AND DOWNEAST
INDICATING THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSNOW LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST AND OUT TO SEA WEDNESDAY. THE
EXIT SPEED WILL BE MODEL DETERMINANT...HOWEVER THE EURO IS THE
LEAST PROGRESSIVE AND STALLS OVER NANTUCKET BEFORE SLOWLY MOVE
THROUGH THE GULF OF MAINE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW. ON FRIDAY...CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS ONCE
AGAIN OVER THE NEW ENGLAND WATERS. THE EURO SOLUTION REMAINS VERY
INTERESTING...WITH LOW PRESSURE RAPIDLY DEEPENING IN THE GULF OF
MAINE. THIS COULD BE AN INTERESTING EVENT AS WELL IF THE SYSTEM
CUTS OFF SOON ENOUGH TO OUR SOUTH.

VERY COLD ARCTIC AIR POURS IN FOR THE WEEKEND WITH SOME OF THE
COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE QUICKLY TONIGHT TO
MVFR AS CLOUDS LOWER AND THICKEN IN INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
SNOW AFFECTING CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES AS FAR NORTH AS A KLEB
TO KAUG LINE ARE LIKELY BY 12Z...CREATING LIFR OR LOWER
CONDITIONS. ALL TERMINALS WILL DROP TO THESE LEVELS TUESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH THE LIKELY EXCEPTION OF WHITEFIELD.

LONG TERM...
CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY BE IMPROVING WEDNESDAY. LOCALLY...IFR
CONDITIONS RETURNING FRIDAY IN ANOTHER COASTAL LOW.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...STORM WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY WITH
VERY STRONG WINDS AND SEAS AS HIGH AS 25`.

LONG TERM...
WINDS AND WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE WEDNESDAY. GALE FORCE WINDS
MAY RETURN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
LARGE...BATTERING WAVES WILL BE BUILDING LATE TONIGHT RIGHT AROUND
HIGH TIDE. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH A TWO FOOT STORM SURGE WILL
ALLOW PORTLAND AND HAMPTON TO REACH THEIR FLOOD STAGE. WINDS WILL
SWITCH TO THE NORTH TOMORROW AFTERNOON JUST PRIOR TO HIGH
TIDE...WHICH MAY REDUCE THE STORM SURGE. THIS IS VERY MODEL
DEPENDENT HOWEVER WITH THE EURO DANGEROUSLY BACKING IN THE STORM
TO NANTUCKET ISLAND.

USED THE NORTH ATLANTIC REGIONAL TEAM WAVE RUNUP MATRICES TO
FORECAST AND WARN FOR THE TWO TUESDAY HIGH TIDES. THE OUTPUT SHOWS
WAVE ACTION WILL ALLOW FOR LOCALLY SIGNIFICANT EROSION AS WELL AS
OVERWASH AT FORTUNES ROCKS...JENNIS...CAMP ELLIS AND FERRY BEACHES
IN MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE.

NERACOOS SPLASH-OVER NOMOGRAMS ALSO SHOWING SIGNIFICANT ISSUES AT
THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE FOR THE BEACHES SOUTH OF PORTLAND.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MEZ007>009-
     012>014.
     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MEZ018>028.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR MEZ025>028.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR MEZ023-024.
NH...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NHZ002>009-
     011-015.
     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NHZ010-012>014.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NHZ001.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR NHZ014.
MARINE...STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LEGRO



000
FXUS61 KCAR 270307
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1007 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY ALONG THE SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND COAST OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE LOW WILL THEN LIFT
ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
950 PM UPDATE: JUST MINOR CHGS TO FCST HRLY TEMPS OVRNGT BASED ON
9 PM OBS. OTHERWISE NO SIG CHGS MADE TO NEAR TERM GRIDS ATTM.

ORGNL DISC: THE LATEST FORECAST GUIDANCE ON THE MAJOR WINTER
STORM EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY IS VERY CONSISTENT WITH
PREVIOUS RUNS WITH POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO BE CENTERED
JUST SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. WE`RE
EXPECTING SNOW TO MOVE ONTO THE DOWNEAST COAST AROUND OR SOON
AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THEN PROGRESS NORTH REACHING NORTHERN MAINE
LATE MORNING TUESDAY. CONDITIONS WILL RAPIDLY DETERIORATE DOWNEAST
LATE TONIGHT. TUESDAY MORNING WILL BRING BLIZZARD CONDITIONS
DOWNEAST WHERE A BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT. WINTER STORM
WARNINGS REMAIN UP FOR CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS. COLD
TEMPERATURES MEANS THE SNOW WILL BE DRY AND WILL EASILY BLOW
AROUND RESULTING IN WHITEOUT CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY DOWNEAST.
TOTAL AMOUNTS FROM AROUND 18 INCHES DOWNEAST TO 10 INCHES UP NORTH
ARE STILL EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ON TUESDAY NIGHT...THE VERTICALLY-STACKED LOW WILL BE POSITIONED
OFF CAPE COD AND START FILLING. THE OCCLUSION THAT BROUGHT
TUESDAY`S HEAVY SNOWFALL WILL WEAKEN IN NORTHERN ZONES. STRONG NNE
WINDS WILL CONTINUE WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR THE
ENTIRE AREA EXCEPT DOWN EAST WHERE READINGS WILL BE IN THE LOW
TEENS THROUGH THE NIGHT. BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW WILL BE AN
ISSUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE COLD TEMPERATURES WILL CREATE A VERY
LIGHTWEIGHT SNOW THAT WILL EASILY BECOME AIRBORNE AND REDUCE
VISIBILITIES. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
NIGHT...AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON THE ORDER OF AN ADDITIONAL
THREE TO FOUR INCHES ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. MORE QPF WILL OCCUR
IN SOUTHERN ZONES CLOSER TO THE UPPER LOW...BUT SNOW RATIOS WILL
BE HIGHER NORTH. SNOW RATIOS WILL BE REDUCED BY STRONG WINDS AS
WELL AS A WARM NOSE JUST ABOVE H850 TOWARDS THE COAST. THE LOW
WILL TRACK TOWARDS NOVA SCOTIA OVERNIGHT. WILL FOLLOW THE
GEFS/SREF TRACK AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP PATTERN FOR NOW. THE EXACT
PATH AND SPEED OF THE CUT-OFF SYSTEM STILL REMAINS IN QUESTION ON
TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT ALL GUIDANCE AGREES THAT THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE
EAST OF THE AREA BY LATER WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE CLOSED LOW
CONTINUES TO DECAY AND TRANSITIONS TO AN OPEN WAVE IN THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES. AS A RESULT...ACCUMULATING SNOW ENDS WEDNESDAY MORNING
AND TRANSITIONS TO SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES. DRIFTING SNOW WILL
CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE ALL DAY. CLEARING SKIES ARRIVE WEDNESDAY
EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS. WINDS WILL DIE OFF LATER AND
DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD OCCUR WITH THE FRESH SNOWPACK.
HAVE GONE BELOW GUIDANCE WITH READINGS AS LOW AS TEN BELOW IN THE
ALLAGASH. HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THURSDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
HIGHS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S. HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE LATER
IN THE DAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE AT
THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A
CHANCE OF SNOW. THE LOW WILL INTENSIFY WHILE CROSSING THE REGION
FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE LOW WILL BRING ACCUMULATING
SNOW TO THE REGION FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...THOUGH AMOUNTS
ARE STILL UNCERTAIN. WRAP AROUND SNOWS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
REGION INTO SATURDAY WHILE THE LOW EXITS ACROSS THE MARITIMES WITH
ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. UNCERTAINTY THEN
EXISTS REGARDING POSSIBLE LOW PRESSURE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS FRIDAY...AT SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL LEVELS SATURDAY THEN AT MUCH BELOW NORMAL LEVELS
SUNDAY/MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING WILL DROP TO IFR DOWNEAST
AFTER MIDNIGHT THEN IFR AROUND MIDDAY ACROSS THE NORTH. LIFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DOWNEAST TUESDAY WITH CONDITIONS DROPPING
TO IFR ACROSS THE NORTH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM: IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW ARE ANTICIPATED TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL BECOME VFR WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND REMAIN VFR THROUGH THURSDAY. CONDITIONS WILL LOWER
TO MVFR/IFR LEVELS THURSDAY NIGHT. IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY...WITH VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS
LATER SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: 950 PM UPDATE...WE USED CG1 WV GUIDANCE TO BUMP WV HTS
OVR INNER BAY/HARBOR MZ052...SPCLY FOR LATE TNGT THRU WED.
OTHERWISE...WW3 WV GUIDANCE WHICH SHOWS MAX WV HTS OF 20 TO 22 FT
OVR OUTER MZS050-051 CONTINUES TO LOOK REASONABLE.

ORGNL DISC...A STORM WARNING REMAINS UP FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS
FOR NORTHEAST WINDS RAPIDLY INCREASING TONIGHT AND REACHING GUSTS
UP TO 50 KT BY EARLY TUESDAY. STORM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY.

SHORT TERM: STORM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
DECREASE TO GALE CONDITIONS LATER IN THE NIGHT. SEAS COULD
APPROACH 20 FT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. THE GALE ENDS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND GIVE WAY TO AN SCA THAT WILL LAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME MINOR SHORELINE FLOODING AT SPLASHOVER AT THE TIMES OF HIGH
TIDE, WHICH ARE 4 AM TONIGHT AND 4:30 PM TUESDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM TUESDAY TO 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR MEZ001>004.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 AM TUESDAY TO 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR MEZ005-006-010-011-031-032.
     BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 4 AM TUESDAY TO 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     MEZ015>017-029-030.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TUESDAY TO 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR MEZ029-030.
MARINE...STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM TUESDAY TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...MCW
LONG TERM...NORCROSS
AVIATION...VJN/MCW
MARINE...VJN/MCW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...VJN




000
FXUS61 KCAR 270307
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1007 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY ALONG THE SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND COAST OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE LOW WILL THEN LIFT
ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
950 PM UPDATE: JUST MINOR CHGS TO FCST HRLY TEMPS OVRNGT BASED ON
9 PM OBS. OTHERWISE NO SIG CHGS MADE TO NEAR TERM GRIDS ATTM.

ORGNL DISC: THE LATEST FORECAST GUIDANCE ON THE MAJOR WINTER
STORM EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY IS VERY CONSISTENT WITH
PREVIOUS RUNS WITH POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO BE CENTERED
JUST SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. WE`RE
EXPECTING SNOW TO MOVE ONTO THE DOWNEAST COAST AROUND OR SOON
AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THEN PROGRESS NORTH REACHING NORTHERN MAINE
LATE MORNING TUESDAY. CONDITIONS WILL RAPIDLY DETERIORATE DOWNEAST
LATE TONIGHT. TUESDAY MORNING WILL BRING BLIZZARD CONDITIONS
DOWNEAST WHERE A BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT. WINTER STORM
WARNINGS REMAIN UP FOR CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS. COLD
TEMPERATURES MEANS THE SNOW WILL BE DRY AND WILL EASILY BLOW
AROUND RESULTING IN WHITEOUT CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY DOWNEAST.
TOTAL AMOUNTS FROM AROUND 18 INCHES DOWNEAST TO 10 INCHES UP NORTH
ARE STILL EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ON TUESDAY NIGHT...THE VERTICALLY-STACKED LOW WILL BE POSITIONED
OFF CAPE COD AND START FILLING. THE OCCLUSION THAT BROUGHT
TUESDAY`S HEAVY SNOWFALL WILL WEAKEN IN NORTHERN ZONES. STRONG NNE
WINDS WILL CONTINUE WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR THE
ENTIRE AREA EXCEPT DOWN EAST WHERE READINGS WILL BE IN THE LOW
TEENS THROUGH THE NIGHT. BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW WILL BE AN
ISSUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE COLD TEMPERATURES WILL CREATE A VERY
LIGHTWEIGHT SNOW THAT WILL EASILY BECOME AIRBORNE AND REDUCE
VISIBILITIES. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
NIGHT...AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON THE ORDER OF AN ADDITIONAL
THREE TO FOUR INCHES ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. MORE QPF WILL OCCUR
IN SOUTHERN ZONES CLOSER TO THE UPPER LOW...BUT SNOW RATIOS WILL
BE HIGHER NORTH. SNOW RATIOS WILL BE REDUCED BY STRONG WINDS AS
WELL AS A WARM NOSE JUST ABOVE H850 TOWARDS THE COAST. THE LOW
WILL TRACK TOWARDS NOVA SCOTIA OVERNIGHT. WILL FOLLOW THE
GEFS/SREF TRACK AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP PATTERN FOR NOW. THE EXACT
PATH AND SPEED OF THE CUT-OFF SYSTEM STILL REMAINS IN QUESTION ON
TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT ALL GUIDANCE AGREES THAT THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE
EAST OF THE AREA BY LATER WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE CLOSED LOW
CONTINUES TO DECAY AND TRANSITIONS TO AN OPEN WAVE IN THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES. AS A RESULT...ACCUMULATING SNOW ENDS WEDNESDAY MORNING
AND TRANSITIONS TO SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES. DRIFTING SNOW WILL
CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE ALL DAY. CLEARING SKIES ARRIVE WEDNESDAY
EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS. WINDS WILL DIE OFF LATER AND
DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD OCCUR WITH THE FRESH SNOWPACK.
HAVE GONE BELOW GUIDANCE WITH READINGS AS LOW AS TEN BELOW IN THE
ALLAGASH. HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THURSDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
HIGHS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S. HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE LATER
IN THE DAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE AT
THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A
CHANCE OF SNOW. THE LOW WILL INTENSIFY WHILE CROSSING THE REGION
FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE LOW WILL BRING ACCUMULATING
SNOW TO THE REGION FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...THOUGH AMOUNTS
ARE STILL UNCERTAIN. WRAP AROUND SNOWS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
REGION INTO SATURDAY WHILE THE LOW EXITS ACROSS THE MARITIMES WITH
ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. UNCERTAINTY THEN
EXISTS REGARDING POSSIBLE LOW PRESSURE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS FRIDAY...AT SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL LEVELS SATURDAY THEN AT MUCH BELOW NORMAL LEVELS
SUNDAY/MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING WILL DROP TO IFR DOWNEAST
AFTER MIDNIGHT THEN IFR AROUND MIDDAY ACROSS THE NORTH. LIFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DOWNEAST TUESDAY WITH CONDITIONS DROPPING
TO IFR ACROSS THE NORTH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM: IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW ARE ANTICIPATED TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL BECOME VFR WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND REMAIN VFR THROUGH THURSDAY. CONDITIONS WILL LOWER
TO MVFR/IFR LEVELS THURSDAY NIGHT. IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY...WITH VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS
LATER SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: 950 PM UPDATE...WE USED CG1 WV GUIDANCE TO BUMP WV HTS
OVR INNER BAY/HARBOR MZ052...SPCLY FOR LATE TNGT THRU WED.
OTHERWISE...WW3 WV GUIDANCE WHICH SHOWS MAX WV HTS OF 20 TO 22 FT
OVR OUTER MZS050-051 CONTINUES TO LOOK REASONABLE.

ORGNL DISC...A STORM WARNING REMAINS UP FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS
FOR NORTHEAST WINDS RAPIDLY INCREASING TONIGHT AND REACHING GUSTS
UP TO 50 KT BY EARLY TUESDAY. STORM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY.

SHORT TERM: STORM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
DECREASE TO GALE CONDITIONS LATER IN THE NIGHT. SEAS COULD
APPROACH 20 FT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. THE GALE ENDS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND GIVE WAY TO AN SCA THAT WILL LAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME MINOR SHORELINE FLOODING AT SPLASHOVER AT THE TIMES OF HIGH
TIDE, WHICH ARE 4 AM TONIGHT AND 4:30 PM TUESDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM TUESDAY TO 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR MEZ001>004.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 AM TUESDAY TO 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR MEZ005-006-010-011-031-032.
     BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 4 AM TUESDAY TO 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     MEZ015>017-029-030.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TUESDAY TO 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR MEZ029-030.
MARINE...STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM TUESDAY TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...MCW
LONG TERM...NORCROSS
AVIATION...VJN/MCW
MARINE...VJN/MCW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...VJN



000
FXUS61 KGYX 270139
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
839 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
TODAY THEN RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD TO JUST
SOUTH OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS ON TUESDAY. THE LOW WILL LINGER
AROUND THROUGH WEDNESDAY BRINGING A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO OUR
REGION. THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER STORM LATE WEEK OR
EARLY IN THE WEEKEND BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
845PM UPDATE...
HAVE MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMPERATURE FORECAST.
OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE NEEDED. SNOW BANDS CONTINUE
TO DEVELOP AND INTENSIFY AS THEY MOVE ONSHORE IN SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND AND THE OUTER EDGES ARE ALREADY AFFECTING SOUTHEAST NEW
HAMPSHIRE AND EXTREME SOUTHERN MAINE.

545PM UPDATE...
UPDATED THE FORECAST AFTER NOTICING VERY COLD DEWPOINT
TEMPERATURES ACROSS MOST OF MAINE... EVEN COLDER ACROSS NORTHERN
MAINE. THIS WOULD HAVE IMPLICATIONS FOR TEMPERATURES DURING THE
EVENT AS WELL. WILL LIKELY SEE TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS OR EVEN NEAR ZERO OVER PARTS OF WESTERN MAINE BY MORNING AS
COLD AIR DAMMING KEEPS THE COLD/DRY LOW LEVEL FLOW THROUGH THE
EVENT. FORECASTER MEMORY OF THE 2013 BLIZZARD INCLUDES
TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS IN PORTLAND DURING THE SNOW AND
THIS SEEMS QUITE POSSIBLE AGAIN THIS TIME. WITH STRONG WINDS
EXPECTED... WIND CHILLS WILL BE QUITE COLD. WILL UPDATE THE WSW
HAZARD PRODUCTS TO INCLUDE MENTION OF WIND CHILLS AS ADVISORY
CRITERIA MAY BE EXCEEDED ESPECIALLY ACROSS MAINE. HAVE ALSO
UPDATED HOURLY PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO REFLECT SNOW BEGINNING
ALREADY IN SOUTHEAST NEW HAMPSHIRE AND SPREADING UP THE COAST OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
SNOW SHOWERS HAVE ALREADY BEGUN DUE TO OCEAN EFFECT AND INCREASED
MOISTURE. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL INCREASE IN EARNEST TONIGHT AND
WE SHOULD HAVE SNOW SPREADING ACROSS SOUTHERN NH AND COASTAL MAINE
OVERNIGHT. IN FACT SEVERAL INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE BY DAYBREAK IN
THESE LOCATIONS. TEMPERATURES TUMBLE IN THE NORTH TONIGHT AS COLD
AIR IS PULLED TOWARDS THE APPROACHING STORM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
NEW NAM AND GFS ARE MORE PROGRESSIVE TODAY... HOWEVER THE
EUROPEAN... WHICH GENERALLY HANDLES WINTER STORMS VERY WELL... IS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE CANADIAN WHICH INCREASES THE QPF AND
WIND FIELDS ACROSS THE OUR REGION. THE EUROPEAN GETS CAUGHT IN THE
UPPER LEVEL FLOW AS THE UPPER TROUGH TILTS NEGATIVELY AND NOT ONLY
STALLS BUT RETROGRADES SLIGHTLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON... MEANDERING
AROUND THE BENCHMARK... AND DEEPENING SLIGHTLY MORE THAN THE OTHER
MODELS AS IT DOES SO. NEEDLESS TO SAY THE WIND FIELDS REMAIN VERY
IMPRESSIVE.

CURRENTLY THE STORM IS LOCATED OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA AND IS
AROUND 998 MB. WINDS ARE LOOKING NORTHERLY FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE
EVENT NOW AS THE SYSTEM WRAPS UP AND IS PULLED CLOSER TO THE
COAST. MESOSCALE MODELS ARE ALSO SHOWING AN EYE FEATURE SIMILAR
TO A HURRICANE... WHICH ARE PROMINENT ON STRONG MID LATITUDE
CYCLONES. IN ADDITION THE MAIN BANDING FEATURE(S) SHOULD BE
ORIENTED SSW TO NNE... FROM NEAR PORTSMOUTH NH TO LEWISTON ME TO
HARMONY ME EVENTUALLY AS THEY ROTATES ONSHORE. DUE TO THE ABOVE
MODEL CHANGES AND THE BANDING FEATURES MENTIONED... SNOWFALL
TOTALS WERE BUMPED UP SLIGHTLY. OTHERWISE NO WHOLESALE CHANGES...
AND HEADLINES REMAIN THE SAME EXCEPT FOR UPGRADING THE COASTAL
STORM WATCHES TO WARNINGS.

K INDICES INCREASE TO NEAR 20 ALONG CAPE COD AND DOWNEAST
INDICATING THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSNOW LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST AND OUT TO SEA WEDNESDAY. THE
EXIT SPEED WILL BE MODEL DETERMINANT...HOWEVER THE EURO IS THE
LEAST PROGRESSIVE AND STALLS OVER NANTUCKET BEFORE SLOWLY MOVE
THROUGH THE GULF OF MAINE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW. ON FRIDAY...CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS ONCE
AGAIN OVER THE NEW ENGLAND WATERS. THE EURO SOLUTION REMAINS VERY
INTERESTING...WITH LOW PRESSURE RAPIDLY DEEPENING IN THE GULF OF
MAINE. THIS COULD BE AN INTERESTING EVENT AS WELL IF THE SYSTEM
CUTS OFF SOON ENOUGH TO OUR SOUTH.

VERY COLD ARCTIC AIR POURS IN FOR THE WEEKEND WITH SOME OF THE
COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE QUICKLY TONIGHT TO
MVFR AS CLOUDS LOWER AND THICKEN IN INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
SNOW AFFECTING CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES AS FAR NORTH AS A KLEB
TO KAUG LINE ARE LIKELY BY 12Z...CREATING LIFR OR LOWER
CONDITIONS. ALL TERMINALS WILL DROP TO THESE LEVELS TUESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH THE LIKELY EXCEPTION OF WHITEFIELD.

LONG TERM...
CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY BE IMPROVING WEDNESDAY. LOCALLY...IFR
CONDITIONS RETURNING FRIDAY IN ANOTHER COASTAL LOW.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...STORM WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY WITH
VERY STRONG WINDS AND SEAS AS HIGH AS 25`.

LONG TERM...
WINDS AND WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE WEDNESDAY. GALE FORCE WINDS
MAY RETURN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
LARGE...BATTERING WAVES WILL BE BUILDING LATE TONIGHT RIGHT AROUND
HIGH TIDE. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH A TWO FOOT STORM SURGE WILL
ALLOW PORTLAND AND HAMPTON TO REACH THEIR FLOOD STAGE. WINDS WILL
SWITCH TO THE NORTH TOMORROW AFTERNOON JUST PRIOR TO HIGH
TIDE...WHICH MAY REDUCE THE STORM SURGE. THIS IS VERY MODEL
DEPENDENT HOWEVER WITH THE EURO DANGEROUSLY BACKING IN THE STORM
TO NANTUCKET ISLAND.

USED THE NORTH ATLANTIC REGIONAL TEAM WAVE RUNUP MATRICES TO
FORECAST AND WARN FOR THE TWO TUESDAY HIGH TIDES. THE OUTPUT SHOWS
WAVE ACTION WILL ALLOW FOR LOCALLY SIGNIFICANT EROSION AS WELL AS
OVERWASH AT FORTUNES ROCKS...JENNIS...CAMP ELLIS AND FERRY BEACHES
IN MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE.

NERACOOS SPLASH-OVER NOMOGRAMS ALSO SHOWING SIGNIFICANT ISSUES AT
THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE FOR THE BEACHES SOUTH OF PORTLAND.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR MEZ007>009-012>014.
     BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR MEZ018>028.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     MEZ025>028.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR MEZ023-
     024.
NH...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NHZ002>009-011-015.
     BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR NHZ010-012>014.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NHZ001.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR NHZ014.
MARINE...STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM TUESDAY TO 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM UPDATE... KIMBLE
SHORT TERM... HANES
LONG TERM... CANNON



000
FXUS61 KGYX 270139
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
839 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
TODAY THEN RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD TO JUST
SOUTH OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS ON TUESDAY. THE LOW WILL LINGER
AROUND THROUGH WEDNESDAY BRINGING A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO OUR
REGION. THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER STORM LATE WEEK OR
EARLY IN THE WEEKEND BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
845PM UPDATE...
HAVE MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMPERATURE FORECAST.
OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE NEEDED. SNOW BANDS CONTINUE
TO DEVELOP AND INTENSIFY AS THEY MOVE ONSHORE IN SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND AND THE OUTER EDGES ARE ALREADY AFFECTING SOUTHEAST NEW
HAMPSHIRE AND EXTREME SOUTHERN MAINE.

545PM UPDATE...
UPDATED THE FORECAST AFTER NOTICING VERY COLD DEWPOINT
TEMPERATURES ACROSS MOST OF MAINE... EVEN COLDER ACROSS NORTHERN
MAINE. THIS WOULD HAVE IMPLICATIONS FOR TEMPERATURES DURING THE
EVENT AS WELL. WILL LIKELY SEE TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS OR EVEN NEAR ZERO OVER PARTS OF WESTERN MAINE BY MORNING AS
COLD AIR DAMMING KEEPS THE COLD/DRY LOW LEVEL FLOW THROUGH THE
EVENT. FORECASTER MEMORY OF THE 2013 BLIZZARD INCLUDES
TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS IN PORTLAND DURING THE SNOW AND
THIS SEEMS QUITE POSSIBLE AGAIN THIS TIME. WITH STRONG WINDS
EXPECTED... WIND CHILLS WILL BE QUITE COLD. WILL UPDATE THE WSW
HAZARD PRODUCTS TO INCLUDE MENTION OF WIND CHILLS AS ADVISORY
CRITERIA MAY BE EXCEEDED ESPECIALLY ACROSS MAINE. HAVE ALSO
UPDATED HOURLY PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO REFLECT SNOW BEGINNING
ALREADY IN SOUTHEAST NEW HAMPSHIRE AND SPREADING UP THE COAST OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
SNOW SHOWERS HAVE ALREADY BEGUN DUE TO OCEAN EFFECT AND INCREASED
MOISTURE. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL INCREASE IN EARNEST TONIGHT AND
WE SHOULD HAVE SNOW SPREADING ACROSS SOUTHERN NH AND COASTAL MAINE
OVERNIGHT. IN FACT SEVERAL INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE BY DAYBREAK IN
THESE LOCATIONS. TEMPERATURES TUMBLE IN THE NORTH TONIGHT AS COLD
AIR IS PULLED TOWARDS THE APPROACHING STORM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
NEW NAM AND GFS ARE MORE PROGRESSIVE TODAY... HOWEVER THE
EUROPEAN... WHICH GENERALLY HANDLES WINTER STORMS VERY WELL... IS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE CANADIAN WHICH INCREASES THE QPF AND
WIND FIELDS ACROSS THE OUR REGION. THE EUROPEAN GETS CAUGHT IN THE
UPPER LEVEL FLOW AS THE UPPER TROUGH TILTS NEGATIVELY AND NOT ONLY
STALLS BUT RETROGRADES SLIGHTLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON... MEANDERING
AROUND THE BENCHMARK... AND DEEPENING SLIGHTLY MORE THAN THE OTHER
MODELS AS IT DOES SO. NEEDLESS TO SAY THE WIND FIELDS REMAIN VERY
IMPRESSIVE.

CURRENTLY THE STORM IS LOCATED OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA AND IS
AROUND 998 MB. WINDS ARE LOOKING NORTHERLY FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE
EVENT NOW AS THE SYSTEM WRAPS UP AND IS PULLED CLOSER TO THE
COAST. MESOSCALE MODELS ARE ALSO SHOWING AN EYE FEATURE SIMILAR
TO A HURRICANE... WHICH ARE PROMINENT ON STRONG MID LATITUDE
CYCLONES. IN ADDITION THE MAIN BANDING FEATURE(S) SHOULD BE
ORIENTED SSW TO NNE... FROM NEAR PORTSMOUTH NH TO LEWISTON ME TO
HARMONY ME EVENTUALLY AS THEY ROTATES ONSHORE. DUE TO THE ABOVE
MODEL CHANGES AND THE BANDING FEATURES MENTIONED... SNOWFALL
TOTALS WERE BUMPED UP SLIGHTLY. OTHERWISE NO WHOLESALE CHANGES...
AND HEADLINES REMAIN THE SAME EXCEPT FOR UPGRADING THE COASTAL
STORM WATCHES TO WARNINGS.

K INDICES INCREASE TO NEAR 20 ALONG CAPE COD AND DOWNEAST
INDICATING THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSNOW LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST AND OUT TO SEA WEDNESDAY. THE
EXIT SPEED WILL BE MODEL DETERMINANT...HOWEVER THE EURO IS THE
LEAST PROGRESSIVE AND STALLS OVER NANTUCKET BEFORE SLOWLY MOVE
THROUGH THE GULF OF MAINE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW. ON FRIDAY...CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS ONCE
AGAIN OVER THE NEW ENGLAND WATERS. THE EURO SOLUTION REMAINS VERY
INTERESTING...WITH LOW PRESSURE RAPIDLY DEEPENING IN THE GULF OF
MAINE. THIS COULD BE AN INTERESTING EVENT AS WELL IF THE SYSTEM
CUTS OFF SOON ENOUGH TO OUR SOUTH.

VERY COLD ARCTIC AIR POURS IN FOR THE WEEKEND WITH SOME OF THE
COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE QUICKLY TONIGHT TO
MVFR AS CLOUDS LOWER AND THICKEN IN INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
SNOW AFFECTING CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES AS FAR NORTH AS A KLEB
TO KAUG LINE ARE LIKELY BY 12Z...CREATING LIFR OR LOWER
CONDITIONS. ALL TERMINALS WILL DROP TO THESE LEVELS TUESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH THE LIKELY EXCEPTION OF WHITEFIELD.

LONG TERM...
CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY BE IMPROVING WEDNESDAY. LOCALLY...IFR
CONDITIONS RETURNING FRIDAY IN ANOTHER COASTAL LOW.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...STORM WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY WITH
VERY STRONG WINDS AND SEAS AS HIGH AS 25`.

LONG TERM...
WINDS AND WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE WEDNESDAY. GALE FORCE WINDS
MAY RETURN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
LARGE...BATTERING WAVES WILL BE BUILDING LATE TONIGHT RIGHT AROUND
HIGH TIDE. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH A TWO FOOT STORM SURGE WILL
ALLOW PORTLAND AND HAMPTON TO REACH THEIR FLOOD STAGE. WINDS WILL
SWITCH TO THE NORTH TOMORROW AFTERNOON JUST PRIOR TO HIGH
TIDE...WHICH MAY REDUCE THE STORM SURGE. THIS IS VERY MODEL
DEPENDENT HOWEVER WITH THE EURO DANGEROUSLY BACKING IN THE STORM
TO NANTUCKET ISLAND.

USED THE NORTH ATLANTIC REGIONAL TEAM WAVE RUNUP MATRICES TO
FORECAST AND WARN FOR THE TWO TUESDAY HIGH TIDES. THE OUTPUT SHOWS
WAVE ACTION WILL ALLOW FOR LOCALLY SIGNIFICANT EROSION AS WELL AS
OVERWASH AT FORTUNES ROCKS...JENNIS...CAMP ELLIS AND FERRY BEACHES
IN MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE.

NERACOOS SPLASH-OVER NOMOGRAMS ALSO SHOWING SIGNIFICANT ISSUES AT
THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE FOR THE BEACHES SOUTH OF PORTLAND.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR MEZ007>009-012>014.
     BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR MEZ018>028.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     MEZ025>028.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR MEZ023-
     024.
NH...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NHZ002>009-011-015.
     BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR NHZ010-012>014.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NHZ001.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR NHZ014.
MARINE...STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM TUESDAY TO 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM UPDATE... KIMBLE
SHORT TERM... HANES
LONG TERM... CANNON




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