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000
FXUS61 KGYX 012335 AAC
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Gray ME
735 PM EDT FRI JUL 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will cross the region overnight with showers and
thunderstorms. High pressure will build in from the west over the
weekend and last into mid next week. Temperatures will be on the
rise next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
735 PM Update...
We have issued a severe thunderstorm watch for southern and
central NH in coordination with SPC. Adjusted weather grids based
on the watch and timing of the storms as they move east. Generally
not expecting severe storms over Maine as the night wears
on...although strong thunderstorms with plenty of lightning...
torrential rainfall...and gusty winds may affect boaters...campers
and people on the lakes and shores tonight.


615 PM Update...
Thunderstorms are now beginning to move into NH...with a
significant short wave now moving in aloft. A quasi-warm front is
lifting north over southern NH. Dew points have mixed out into the
50s across much of northern and central NH. Across portions of the
coast and inland...the marine layer has also brought thunderstorm
chances down.

This leaves the most likely area for isolated severe storms over
southern NH as the line of storms attempts to congeal/develop a
cold pool. Still expecting at least one and possible two broken
lines of convection to push through NH and across all of Maine
overnight. Areas to our southwest have been tracking supercells
over the last few hours. So far these storms have produced large
hail and damaging winds as well as rotation. The timing of the
storms may not be the best so expect more of a multicell mode with
some rotation for our area.

Max T and diurnal temperatures were adjusted for current
trends. Thunderstorm attributes were left alone at the moment but
may be revisited lated to adjust severity wording.


Previous discussion...
Showers and thunderstorms will cross through the area tonight.
Latest HRRR model show the main area of storms entering NH from
the southwest about 6 pm...then spreading northeastward through
the evening crossing into ME about 8 pm. Most of NH remains in
SPC`s slight risk area...and a few storms in that state will have
the potential to be severe with damaging winds. The storms should
weaken a bit as they move into ME due to the lack of diurnal
heating and a less favorable environment...but could still produce
rather gusty winds. All areas will see potentially deadly
lightning and anyone planning to be outside should be ready to get
inside a safe shelter if thunderstorms threaten.

The storms should move east of the region by morning with clearing
across southern areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Following the front...skies will be partly to mostly sunny across
the region with temps ranging from near 70 in the mountains to the
lower 80s southern areas. Winds will be gusty throughout the day
with gusts most areas near 20 mph. The mountains will see more
clouds throughout the day and can`t rule out a passing shower.

For Saturday night...winds should diminish leading to a mostly
clear cool night with temperatures dropping into the 40s and 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Generally fair and dry weather looks to be in the cards Sunday
through much of next week as troughing is replaced by ridging. A
few showers will be possible in the mountains Sunday, but
otherwise dry weather is looking likely for much of the area
through at least Wed. Warming temperatures, perhaps even hot,
looks likely for midweek.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Short Term...vfr to MVFR conditions this afternoon will become IFR
this evening in showers and thunderstorms. Conditions will
improve to VFR Saturday morning and remain vfr saturday night.
Mountain areas could see some MFR conditions in showers Saturday.

Long Term...We expected VFR conditions Sunday through Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...A small craft advisory is in effect for all of the
outer waters overnight and the waters east of Portland for Saturday.
All areas...including the bays...could see gusty winds in
thunderstorms overnight.

Long Term...Expect winds and seas to remain below SCA criteria
Monday through Thursday. Low probability of SCA conditions on
Sunday on the outer waters as low pressure departs.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...


&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ150-152.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Hanes
SHORT TERM...Jensenius
LONG TERM...Ekster



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000
FXUS61 KCAR 012238
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
638 PM EDT FRI JUL 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front will lift across the region tonight followed by a
cold front on Saturday. High pressure will build across the
region later Sunday into Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
6:37 PM Update...Clouds will continue to increase this evening
ahead of an approaching warm front that is currently across
eastern NY state. Showers and thunderstorms are moving across
western New England, and will move into the southwest corner of
the CWA later this evening, and likely not reach the far northeast
corner of the CWA until after midnight. The storms are expected to
weaken overnight, but may contain some heavy downpours and
frequent lightning. Will add in the mention of heavy rain.
Otherwise, no significant changes attm.

Previous discussion...
Clouds will increase tonight ahead of a warm front. The front will
cross the area overnight bringing of band of rain showers and
embedded thunderstorms to the area. The showers will progress from
southwest to northeast late this evening reaching northeast areas
around midnight. Most of the rain will fall between midnight and
dawn with a quarter to a half inch of rain expected in most areas.
The rain will push east of the area on Saturday as the cold front
pushes across the region. Enough heating may occur ahead of the
front to allow thunderstorms to form in eastern areas around
midday before the front pushes through. Capes are progged to be
over 1000 J/KG over the north so some isolated strong storms are
possible with gusty winds and small hail. Drier air will push in
during the afternoon following the cold front. Northern areas will
remain mostly cloudy and Downeast will become mostly sunny.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Upper level low pressure will track north of Maine Saturday night
keeping mostly cloudy skies along with a chance of showers across
northern areas, with partly cloudy/mostly clear skies Downeast.
The upper low will exit across the maritimes Sunday. Expect
partly sunny skies along with a slight chance of showers across
northern areas Sunday, with mostly clear skies Downeast. Expect
partly cloudy skies north, with mostly clear skies Downeast,
Sunday night. Generally expect partly sunny skies north with
mostly clear skies Downeast Monday. However, an upper level
disturbance could bring the slight chance of a shower across the
north and mountains. Temperatures will be at slightly below normal
levels Sunday, with near normal level temperatures Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High pressure will cross the region Monday night into Wednesday. A
cold front will begin to approach Wednesday night which could
bring a slight chance of showers to northern areas. The cold front
will cross the region Thursday into Friday, though the exact
timing is still uncertain. Showers/thunderstorms are expected
across the region Thursday into Friday dependent on the timing of
the front. Temperatures are expected to be at near normal, to
slightly above normal, levels Tuesday through Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: Conditions will be VFR this evening then drop to IFR
late tonight in rain and low clouds. Conditions will improve to
MVFR across the north late Saturday morning and improve to VFR
Downeast. VFR conditions are expected Saturday afternoon, but
conditions my remain MVFR over some areas of the far north. There
will be a risk of thunderstorms overnight and again in eastern
areas Saturday around midday.

SHORT TERM: Occasional MVFR conditions are possible across
northern areas Saturday night into Sunday. Otherwise, generally
expect VFR conditions across the region Saturday night into
Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: An SCA will be up late tonight through Saturday for
southerly wind gusting up to 25 kt tonight and westerly winds
gusting up to 25 kt on Saturday. Conditions are marginal for SCA
over the intracoastal waters, but wanted to include them in the
SCA too because of the holiday weekend and also the possibility
for some brief gustier winds in mixing as the front moves through
on Saturday.

SHORT TERM: Conditions are expected to be below small craft
advisory levels Saturday night through Monday.

&&

.CLIMATE...The monthly climate report for June is now available at
pwmclmcar or sxus51 kcar.


&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 6 PM EDT
     Saturday for ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

Near Term...Bloomer/CB
Short Term...Norcross
Long Term...Norcross
Aviation...Bloomer/CB/Norcross
Marine...Bloomer/CB/Norcross
Climate...CB




000
FXUS61 KGYX 012215 AAA
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Gray ME
615 PM EDT FRI JUL 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will cross the region overnight with showers and
thunderstorms. High pressure will build in from the west over the
weekend and last into mid next week. Temperatures will be on the
rise next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
615 PM Update...
Thunderstorms are now beginning to move into NH...with a
significant short wave now moving in aloft. A quasi-warm front is
lifting north over southern NH. Dew points have mixed out into the
50s across much of northern and central NH. Across portions of the
coast and inland...the marine layer has also brought thunderstorm
chances down.

This leaves the most likely area for isolated severe storms over
southern NH as the line of storms attempts to congeal/develop a
cold pool. Still expecting at least one and possible two broken
lines of convection to push through NH and across all of Maine
overnight. Areas to our southwest have been tracking supercells
over the last few hours. So far these storms have produced large
hail and damaging winds as well as rotation. The timing of the
storms may not be the best so expect more of a multicell mode with
some rotation for our area.

Max T and diurnal temperatures were adjusted for current
trends. Thunderstorm attributes were left alone at the moment but
may be revisited lated to adjust severity wording.


Previous discussion...
Showers and thunderstorms will cross through the area tonight.
Latest HRRR model show the main area of storms entering NH from
the southwest about 6 pm...then spreading northeastward through
the evening crossing into ME about 8 pm. Most of NH remains in
SPC`s slight risk area...and a few storms in that state will have
the potential to be severe with damaging winds. The storms should
weaken a bit as they move into ME due to the lack of diurnal
heating and a less favorable environment...but could still produce
rather gusty winds. All areas will see potentially deadly
lightning and anyone planning to be outside should be ready to get
inside a safe shelter if thunderstorms threaten.

The storms should move east of the region by morning with clearing
across southern areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Following the front...skies will be partly to mostly sunny across
the region with temps ranging from near 70 in the mountains to the
lower 80s southern areas. Winds will be gusty throughout the day
with gusts most areas near 20 mph. The mountains will see more
clouds throughout the day and can`t rule out a passing shower.

For Saturday night...winds should diminish leading to a mostly
clear cool night with temperatures dropping into the 40s and 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Generally fair and dry weather looks to be in the cards Sunday
through much of next week as troughing is replaced by ridging. A
few showers will be possible in the mountains Sunday, but
otherwise dry weather is looking likely for much of the area
through at least Wed. Warming temperatures, perhaps even hot,
looks likely for midweek.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Short Term...vfr to MVFR conditions this afternoon will become IFR
this evening in showers and thunderstorms. Conditions will
improve to VFR Saturday morning and remain vfr saturday night.
Mountain areas could see some MFR conditions in showers Saturday.

Long Term...We expected VFR conditions Sunday through Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...A small craft advisory is in effect for all of the
outer waters overnight and the waters east of Portland for Saturday.
All areas...including the bays...could see gusty winds in
thunderstorms overnight.

Long Term...Expect winds and seas to remain below SCA criteria
Monday through Thursday. Low probability of SCA conditions on
Sunday on the outer waters as low pressure departs.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ150-152.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Hanes
SHORT TERM...Jensenius
LONG TERM...Ekster




000
FXUS61 KCAR 012051
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
451 PM EDT FRI JUL 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front will lift across the region tonight followed by a
cold front on Saturday. High pressure will build across the
region later Sunday into Monday.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Clouds will increase tonight ahead of a warm front. The front will
cross the area overnight bringing of band of rain showers and
embedded thunderstorms to the area. The showers will progress from
southwest to northeast late this evening reaching northeast areas
around midnight. Most of the rain will fall between midnight and
dawn with a quarter to a half inch of rain expected in most areas.
The rain will push east of the area on Saturday as the cold front
pushes across the region. Enough heating may occur ahead of the
front to allow thunderstorms to form in eastern areas around
midday before the front pushes through. Capes are progged to be
over 1000 J/KG over the north so some isolated strong storms are
possible with gusty winds and small hail. Drier air will push in
during the afternoon following the cold front. Northern areas will
remain mostly cloudy and Downeast will become mostly sunny.
&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Upper level low pressure will track north of Maine Saturday night
keeping mostly cloudy skies along with a chance of showers across
northern areas, with partly cloudy/mostly clear skies Downeast.
The upper low will exit across the maritimes Sunday. Expect
partly sunny skies along with a slight chance of showers across
northern areas Sunday, with mostly clear skies Downeast. Expect
partly cloudy skies north, with mostly clear skies Downeast,
Sunday night. Generally expect partly sunny skies north with
mostly clear skies Downeast Monday. However, an upper level
disturbance could bring the slight chance of a shower across the
north and mountains. Temperatures will be at slightly below normal
levels Sunday, with near normal level temperatures Monday.
&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High pressure will cross the region Monday night into Wednesday. A
cold front will begin to approach Wednesday night which could
bring a slight chance of showers to northern areas. The cold front
will cross the region Thursday into Friday, though the exact
timing is still uncertain. Showers/thunderstorms are expected
across the region Thursday into Friday dependent on the timing of
the front. Temperatures are expected to be at near normal, to
slightly above normal, levels Tuesday through Friday.
&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: Conditions will be VFR this evening then drop to IFR
late tonight in rain and low clouds. Conditions will improve to
MVFR across the north late Saturday morning and improve to VFR
Downeast. VFR conditions are expected Saturday afternoon, but
conditions my remain MVFR over some areas of the far north. There
will be a risk of thunderstorms overnight and again in eastern
areas Saturday around midday.

SHORT TERM: Occasional MVFR conditions are possible across
northern areas Saturday night into Sunday. Otherwise, generally
expect VFR conditions across the region Saturday night into
Tuesday.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: An SCA will be up late tonight through Saturday for
southerly wind gusting up to 25 kt tonight and westerly winds
gusting up to 25 kt on Saturday. Conditions are marginal for SCA
over the intracoastal waters, but wanted to include them in the
SCA too because of the holiday weekend and also the possibility
for some brief gustier winds in mixing as the front moves through
on Saturday.

SHORT TERM: Conditions are expected to be below small craft
advisory levels Saturday night through Monday.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 6 PM EDT
     Saturday for ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

Near Term...Bloomer
Short Term...Norcross
Long Term...Norcross
Aviation...Bloomer/Norcross
Marine...Bloomer/Norcross




000
FXUS61 KCAR 012051
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
451 PM EDT FRI JUL 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front will lift across the region tonight followed by a
cold front on Saturday. High pressure will build across the
region later Sunday into Monday.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Clouds will increase tonight ahead of a warm front. The front will
cross the area overnight bringing of band of rain showers and
embedded thunderstorms to the area. The showers will progress from
southwest to northeast late this evening reaching northeast areas
around midnight. Most of the rain will fall between midnight and
dawn with a quarter to a half inch of rain expected in most areas.
The rain will push east of the area on Saturday as the cold front
pushes across the region. Enough heating may occur ahead of the
front to allow thunderstorms to form in eastern areas around
midday before the front pushes through. Capes are progged to be
over 1000 J/KG over the north so some isolated strong storms are
possible with gusty winds and small hail. Drier air will push in
during the afternoon following the cold front. Northern areas will
remain mostly cloudy and Downeast will become mostly sunny.
&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Upper level low pressure will track north of Maine Saturday night
keeping mostly cloudy skies along with a chance of showers across
northern areas, with partly cloudy/mostly clear skies Downeast.
The upper low will exit across the maritimes Sunday. Expect
partly sunny skies along with a slight chance of showers across
northern areas Sunday, with mostly clear skies Downeast. Expect
partly cloudy skies north, with mostly clear skies Downeast,
Sunday night. Generally expect partly sunny skies north with
mostly clear skies Downeast Monday. However, an upper level
disturbance could bring the slight chance of a shower across the
north and mountains. Temperatures will be at slightly below normal
levels Sunday, with near normal level temperatures Monday.
&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High pressure will cross the region Monday night into Wednesday. A
cold front will begin to approach Wednesday night which could
bring a slight chance of showers to northern areas. The cold front
will cross the region Thursday into Friday, though the exact
timing is still uncertain. Showers/thunderstorms are expected
across the region Thursday into Friday dependent on the timing of
the front. Temperatures are expected to be at near normal, to
slightly above normal, levels Tuesday through Friday.
&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: Conditions will be VFR this evening then drop to IFR
late tonight in rain and low clouds. Conditions will improve to
MVFR across the north late Saturday morning and improve to VFR
Downeast. VFR conditions are expected Saturday afternoon, but
conditions my remain MVFR over some areas of the far north. There
will be a risk of thunderstorms overnight and again in eastern
areas Saturday around midday.

SHORT TERM: Occasional MVFR conditions are possible across
northern areas Saturday night into Sunday. Otherwise, generally
expect VFR conditions across the region Saturday night into
Tuesday.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: An SCA will be up late tonight through Saturday for
southerly wind gusting up to 25 kt tonight and westerly winds
gusting up to 25 kt on Saturday. Conditions are marginal for SCA
over the intracoastal waters, but wanted to include them in the
SCA too because of the holiday weekend and also the possibility
for some brief gustier winds in mixing as the front moves through
on Saturday.

SHORT TERM: Conditions are expected to be below small craft
advisory levels Saturday night through Monday.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 6 PM EDT
     Saturday for ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

Near Term...Bloomer
Short Term...Norcross
Long Term...Norcross
Aviation...Bloomer/Norcross
Marine...Bloomer/Norcross




000
FXUS61 KGYX 011922
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Gray ME
322 PM EDT FRI JUL 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will cross the region overnight with showers and
thunderstorms. High pressure will build in from the west over the
weekend and last into mid next week. Temperatures will be on the
rise next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Showers and thunderstorms will cross through the area tonight.
Latest HRRR model show the main area of storms entering NH from
the southwest about 6 pm...then spreading northeastward through
the evening crossing into ME about 8 pm. Most of NH remains in
SPC`s slight risk area...and a few storms in that state will have
the potential to be severe with damaging winds. The storms should
weaken a bit as they move into ME due to the lack of diurnal
heating and a less favorable environment...but could still produce
rather gusty winds. All areas will see potentially deadly
lightning and anyone planning to be outside should be ready to get
inside a safe shelter if thunderstorms threaten.

The storms should move east of the region by morning with clearing
across southern areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Following the front...skies will be partly to mostly sunny across
the region with temps ranging from near 70 in the mountains to the
lower 80s southern areas. Winds will be gusty throughout the day
with gusts most areas near 20 mph. The mountains will see more
clouds throughout the day and can`t rule out a passing shower.

For Saturday night...winds should diminish leading to a mostly
clear cool night with temperatures dropping into the 40s and 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Generally fair and dry weather looks to be in the cards Sunday
through much of next week as troughing is replaced by ridging. A
few showers will be possible in the mountains Sunday, but
otherwise dry weather is looking likely for much of the area
through at least Wed. Warming temperatures, perhaps even hot,
looks likely for midweek.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Short Term...vfr to MVFR conditions this afternoon will become IFR
this evening in showers and thunderstorms. Conditions will
improve to VFR Saturday morning and remain vfr saturday night.
Mountain areas could see some MFR conditions in showers Saturday.

Long Term...We expected VFR conditions Sunday through Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...A small craft advisory is in effect for all of the
outer waters overnight and the waters east of Portland for Saturday.
All areas...including the bays...could see gusty winds in
thunderstorms overnight.

Long Term...Expect winds and seas to remain below SCA criteria
Monday through Thursday. Low probability of SCA conditions on
Sunday on the outer waters as low pressure departs.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
There is a moderate risk for rip currents at all beaches for the
seacoast of NH as well as all of coastal Maine from NH east
to coastal Waldo county for tomorrow (Saturday).


.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 6 PM EDT
     Saturday for ANZ150-152.
     Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 6 AM EDT
     Saturday for ANZ154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Jensenius
SHORT TERM...Jensenius
LONG TERM...MLE




000
FXUS61 KGYX 011900
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
300 PM EDT FRI JUL 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will cross the region overnight with showers and
thunderstorms. High pressure will build in from the west over the
weekend and last into mid next week. Temperatures will be on the
rise next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Showers and thunderstorms will cross through the area tonight.
Latest HRRR model show the main area of storms entering NH from
the southwest about 6 pm...then spreading northeastward through
the evening crossing into ME about 8 pm. Most of NH remains in
SPC`s slight risk area...and a few storms in that state will have
the potential to be severe with damaging winds. The storms should
weaken a bit as they move into ME due to the lack of diurnal
heating and a less favorable environment...but could still produce
rather gusty winds. All areas will see potentially deadly
lightning and anyone planning to be outside should be ready to get
inside a safe shelter if thunderstorms threaten.

The storms should move east of the region by morning with clearing
across southern areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Following the front...skies will be partly to mostly sunny across
the region with temps ranging from near 70 in the mountains to the
lower 80s southern areas. Winds will be gusty throughout the day
with gusts most areas near 20 mph. The mountains will see more
clouds throughout the day and can`t rule out a passing shower.

For Saturday night...winds should diminish leading to a mostly
clear cool night with temperatures dropping into the 40s and 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Generally fair and dry weather looks to be in the cards Sunday
through much of next week as troughing is replaced by ridging. A
few showers will be possible in the mountains Sunday, but
otherwise dry weather is looking likely for much of the area
through at least Wed. Warming temperatures, perhaps even hot,
looks likely for midweek.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Short Term...vfr to MVFR conditions this afternoon will become IFR
this evening in showers and thunderstorms. Conditions will
improve to VFR Saturday morning and remain vfr saturday night.
Mountain areas could see some MFR conditions in showers Saturday.

Long Term...We expected VFR conditions Sunday through Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...A small craft advisory is in effect for all of the
outer waters overnight and the waters east of Portland for Saturday.
All areas...including the bays...could see gusty winds in
thunderstorms overnight.

Long Term...Expect winds and seas to remain below SCA criteria
Monday through Thursday. Low probability of SCA conditions on
Sunday on the outer waters as low pressure departs.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 6 PM EDT
     Saturday for ANZ150-152.
     Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 6 AM EDT
     Saturday for ANZ154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Jensenius
SHORT TERM...Jensenius
LONG TERM...MLE




000
FXUS61 KGYX 011900
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
300 PM EDT FRI JUL 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will cross the region overnight with showers and
thunderstorms. High pressure will build in from the west over the
weekend and last into mid next week. Temperatures will be on the
rise next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Showers and thunderstorms will cross through the area tonight.
Latest HRRR model show the main area of storms entering NH from
the southwest about 6 pm...then spreading northeastward through
the evening crossing into ME about 8 pm. Most of NH remains in
SPC`s slight risk area...and a few storms in that state will have
the potential to be severe with damaging winds. The storms should
weaken a bit as they move into ME due to the lack of diurnal
heating and a less favorable environment...but could still produce
rather gusty winds. All areas will see potentially deadly
lightning and anyone planning to be outside should be ready to get
inside a safe shelter if thunderstorms threaten.

The storms should move east of the region by morning with clearing
across southern areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Following the front...skies will be partly to mostly sunny across
the region with temps ranging from near 70 in the mountains to the
lower 80s southern areas. Winds will be gusty throughout the day
with gusts most areas near 20 mph. The mountains will see more
clouds throughout the day and can`t rule out a passing shower.

For Saturday night...winds should diminish leading to a mostly
clear cool night with temperatures dropping into the 40s and 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Generally fair and dry weather looks to be in the cards Sunday
through much of next week as troughing is replaced by ridging. A
few showers will be possible in the mountains Sunday, but
otherwise dry weather is looking likely for much of the area
through at least Wed. Warming temperatures, perhaps even hot,
looks likely for midweek.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Short Term...vfr to MVFR conditions this afternoon will become IFR
this evening in showers and thunderstorms. Conditions will
improve to VFR Saturday morning and remain vfr saturday night.
Mountain areas could see some MFR conditions in showers Saturday.

Long Term...We expected VFR conditions Sunday through Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...A small craft advisory is in effect for all of the
outer waters overnight and the waters east of Portland for Saturday.
All areas...including the bays...could see gusty winds in
thunderstorms overnight.

Long Term...Expect winds and seas to remain below SCA criteria
Monday through Thursday. Low probability of SCA conditions on
Sunday on the outer waters as low pressure departs.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 6 PM EDT
     Saturday for ANZ150-152.
     Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 6 AM EDT
     Saturday for ANZ154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Jensenius
SHORT TERM...Jensenius
LONG TERM...MLE




000
FXUS61 KGYX 011559
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
1159 AM EDT FRI JUL 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will approach from the west today and will cross the
region overnight. A trough of low pressure will linger over the
region Saturday and Sunday. High pressure will build in from the
west Sunday night through Tuesday and will shift offshore on
Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Noon update...Latest model guidance shows main area of showers and
thunderstorms entering the CT river valley about 6 pm this evening
then gradually spreading eastward through the evening hours. SPC
has extended the severe threat farther east into NH with the
latest update this morning. No major changes to the
forecast...except to mention severe threat across western portion
of CWA. Otherwise...forecast updated for current conditions.

930am Update... Have updated the forecast to slow the eastward
progression of the main area showers and thunderstorm. Although
there could be a pop-up shower or thunderstorm across New
Hampshire or western Maine this afternoon...current models bring
the heavier line of storms through the region this evening and
early tonight.

Cold front will approach from the west today as a strong shortwave
shifts east from the great lakes. Timing of the front will
preclude any severe storms in the forecast area as sufficient
moisture and instability won`t make it into western zones until
late this afternoon and early this evening past the time of max
heating. Will likely see remnants of stronger convection to the
west getting into the connecticut valley by mid afternoon and
spreading eastward across New Hampshire through early evening.

Brisk onshore flow will contribute to a robust marine layer in
southern Maine and southeast New Hampshire so expect convection to
diminish as it pushes into these areas during the late afternoon
and evening. Mountains and foothills of Maine will likely see
enough moisture and instability to get in on some spotty
thunderstorm activity during the late afternoon and evening. High
temps will be similar to Thursdays with most areas reaching the
lower to mid 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
Showers and thunderstorms will gradually push east of the
forecast area after midnight as the front slowly crosses the area.
Behind the front...westerly flow will bring clearing to the region
toward daybreak. Should see a fairly mild night with lows
generally in the mid 50s north to lower 60s south.

Saturday will feature a mix of sun and clouds in the mountains and
mostly sunny skies elsewhere as cooler and less humid air flows
into the region on increasing westerly winds. Highs will range
from the mid 60s to mid 70s north and upper 70s to lower 80s
south.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Fairly decent weather with mostly dry conditions in the long term
and increasing warmth. For Saturday night and Sunday expect
temperatures to be running cooler than normal. Can`t rule out an
isolated shower in the mountains Sunday afternoon. Temperatures
begin to warm Monday and by midweek the 500 ridge moves in with
temperatures rising into the mid and upper 80s in southern New
Hampshire and lower to mid 80s in southern Maine. A seabreeze will
develop keeping coastal communities a bit cooler.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Short Term...VFR today with areas of MVFR ceilings and vsby in
afternoon thunderstorms across New Hampshire. Areas of IFR/LIFR
ceilings/vsby overnight...especially in coastal and southern
interior Maine. VFR saturday.

Long Term...
Expect VFR through the period.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...No flags.

Long Term...Expect winds and seas to remain below SCA criteria.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...Jensenius
SHORT TERM...Jensenius
LONG TERM...Ekster
AVIATION...
MARINE...




000
FXUS61 KGYX 011559
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
1159 AM EDT FRI JUL 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will approach from the west today and will cross the
region overnight. A trough of low pressure will linger over the
region Saturday and Sunday. High pressure will build in from the
west Sunday night through Tuesday and will shift offshore on
Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Noon update...Latest model guidance shows main area of showers and
thunderstorms entering the CT river valley about 6 pm this evening
then gradually spreading eastward through the evening hours. SPC
has extended the severe threat farther east into NH with the
latest update this morning. No major changes to the
forecast...except to mention severe threat across western portion
of CWA. Otherwise...forecast updated for current conditions.

930am Update... Have updated the forecast to slow the eastward
progression of the main area showers and thunderstorm. Although
there could be a pop-up shower or thunderstorm across New
Hampshire or western Maine this afternoon...current models bring
the heavier line of storms through the region this evening and
early tonight.

Cold front will approach from the west today as a strong shortwave
shifts east from the great lakes. Timing of the front will
preclude any severe storms in the forecast area as sufficient
moisture and instability won`t make it into western zones until
late this afternoon and early this evening past the time of max
heating. Will likely see remnants of stronger convection to the
west getting into the connecticut valley by mid afternoon and
spreading eastward across New Hampshire through early evening.

Brisk onshore flow will contribute to a robust marine layer in
southern Maine and southeast New Hampshire so expect convection to
diminish as it pushes into these areas during the late afternoon
and evening. Mountains and foothills of Maine will likely see
enough moisture and instability to get in on some spotty
thunderstorm activity during the late afternoon and evening. High
temps will be similar to Thursdays with most areas reaching the
lower to mid 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
Showers and thunderstorms will gradually push east of the
forecast area after midnight as the front slowly crosses the area.
Behind the front...westerly flow will bring clearing to the region
toward daybreak. Should see a fairly mild night with lows
generally in the mid 50s north to lower 60s south.

Saturday will feature a mix of sun and clouds in the mountains and
mostly sunny skies elsewhere as cooler and less humid air flows
into the region on increasing westerly winds. Highs will range
from the mid 60s to mid 70s north and upper 70s to lower 80s
south.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Fairly decent weather with mostly dry conditions in the long term
and increasing warmth. For Saturday night and Sunday expect
temperatures to be running cooler than normal. Can`t rule out an
isolated shower in the mountains Sunday afternoon. Temperatures
begin to warm Monday and by midweek the 500 ridge moves in with
temperatures rising into the mid and upper 80s in southern New
Hampshire and lower to mid 80s in southern Maine. A seabreeze will
develop keeping coastal communities a bit cooler.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Short Term...VFR today with areas of MVFR ceilings and vsby in
afternoon thunderstorms across New Hampshire. Areas of IFR/LIFR
ceilings/vsby overnight...especially in coastal and southern
interior Maine. VFR saturday.

Long Term...
Expect VFR through the period.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...No flags.

Long Term...Expect winds and seas to remain below SCA criteria.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...Jensenius
SHORT TERM...Jensenius
LONG TERM...Ekster
AVIATION...
MARINE...




000
FXUS61 KCAR 011532
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
1132 AM EDT FRI JUL 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak high pressure will move east of the region today. A warm
front will cross the area tonight. A cold front will cross the
region Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
11:30 AM Update...Temperatures continue to warm faster than
forecast this morning so increased temps through midday and raised
high temps just a bit. Southerly breeze will cool temps near
coastal areas late this afternoon.

Orgnl Disc: Some lctns are reporting intermittent shallow patchy
fog very erly this morn, but this should burn off shortly aft
sunrise. This will leave msly sunny skies for the region ovr the
majority of the day, with increasing cldnss by eve as a strong
s/wv trof apchs from the great lks. Hi temps will be several
degrees warmer than ystdy with the earlier start of sunshine and
fcst warmer aftn 925-850mb temps, allowing for most lower trrn
lctns N of the immediate coast to reach and exceed 80 deg F.

Cldnss will rapidly thicken this eve, with warm advcn shwrs
breaking out SW to NE across the region ovrngt. Pockets of
elevated CAPE up to 250 to 500 J/KG may result in embedded sct
nocturnal tstms with the rnfl which will result in brief higher
rnfl rates, but given little potential of training of stms, we do
not plan on any enhanced hvy rnfl wording attm. Rnfl amounts
across most of the FA up to Sat morn looks to arnd a hlf inch,
with lcly higher amounts spcly ovr cntrl/wrn high trrn lctns.
Ovrngt lows look to be mild; several deg abv seasonal norms.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
With the passage of the warm front early Saturday morning,
rainfall will end. It will leave the northeast corner of the state
last. The warm front will leave the forecast area in a rather
fleeting warm sector that will end abruptly with a powerful cold
front in the afternoon. Severe weather is a big concern and hinges
on the timing of the cold front. If the cold front is too fast and
the convective temperature is not reached, the area will dodge a
bullet as the dynamics for strong storms are compelling and
probably the best so far this season. Will not add enhanced
wording now due to the timing questions of whether the loaded gun
soundings will materialize in time. The current thinking is that
quick destabilization will occur from late morning into early
afternoon and the cold front will quickly sweep across the area
in the afternoon with potential for supercells. Damaging winds,
large hail, and even a brief tornado would all be possible if the
cold front is slow enough. The eastern border of the state is the
most likely recipient of severe storms and Washington County is
flashing the very best signals for severe. Among the parameters
giving rise to concern include mid- level lapse rates, SBCAPE, 0-6
bulk shear, 0-1 bulk shear, LCLs, BRN, 0-1 EHI and SIGTOR. If
timing doesn`t change with Friday`s 12Z guidance, it may be time
to add the enhanced wording.

Once the front crosses, cooler and drier air will rapidly advect
into the forecast area with lows dropping to the lower 50s. Upper
40s are possible through the Allagash and western mountains. Highs
on Sunday will be quite cool with mid to upper 60s north and low
to mid 70s for Bangor and Down East. These temperatures will be
accompanied by very gusty west winds reaching as high as 35 mph.
These winds and fully leaved trees could cause a few power
outages.  Will maintain chance pops for light showers in northern
Aroostook on Saturday night and Sunday. This same region will be
cloudy on Sunday while the southern half of the forecast area
receives more sunshine. Expect clearing skies Sunday night with
lows in the low 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Winds will be strong again on Monday with gusts again hitting over
35 mph with strong mixing and cool air aloft. Highs will be a bit
warmer with less cloud cover. This means low to mid 70s north and
upper 70s to near 80F south. Some guidance suggest an upper level
shortwave could sweep across the area with a few light showers and
will assign slight chance pops. The remainder of the period will
feature a warming trend with humidity creeping back up. Widespread
80s will return Wednesday and Thursday with the exception of
cooler temps on the coast. A cold front will gradually approach
later Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR xpctd tdy, xcpt for any brief pd of MVFR/IFR vsbys
with patchy fog erly this morn, contg this eve then clgs and vsbys
lowering to IFR region wide across all the TAF sites late Fri ngt
with shwrs and possible tstms.

SHORT TERM: IFR and MVFR cigs will quickly lift Saturday morning
and give way to VFR conditions. However, severe thunderstorms may
impact area terminals in the afternoon with large hail. Otherwise,
VFR conditions are expected later Saturday evening through
Tuesday. Winds will be a significant consideration Sunday and
Monday with gusts potentially reaching 30 kts.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: No hdlns xpctd attm, but S winds will increase with wv
hts tngt to just under SCA criteria. Wv pds will begin at 7 to 8.5
sec then diminish to 5.5 to 7 sec ovrngt as the wind wv component
increases. Went with about 85 to 90 percent of WW3 wv guidance for
fcst wv hts thru the near term. In addition, marine ST and fog
will likely lower vsbys ovrngt to 1 nm or less by daybreak Sat.

SHORT TERM: Fog will be the first concern over the waters well
into Saturday night. Thunderstorms are the next concern on
Saturday afternoon. With the holiday weekend and influx of
recreational boaters, these thunderstorms could cause issues with
sudden increases in winds and seas. These same recreational
boaters will be at risk again on Sunday with wind gusts reaching
nearly 25 kts and seas hitting around 4 feet. While an SCA
wouldn`t be strongly considered for these conditions in the
winter, public safety necessitate an advisory.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

Near Term...VJN/MCB
Short Term...MCW
Long Term...MCW
Aviation...VJN/MCW
Marine...VJN/MCW




000
FXUS61 KGYX 011328
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
928 AM EDT FRI JUL 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will approach from the west today and will cross the
region overnight. A trough of low pressure will linger over the
region Saturday and Sunday. High pressure will build in from the
west Sunday night through Tuesday and will shift offshore on
Wednesday.

&&

930am Update... Have updated the forecast to slow the eastward
progression of the main area showers and thunderstorm. Although
there could be a pop-up shower or thunderstorm across New
Hampshire or western Maine this afternoon...current models bring
the heavier line of storms through the region this evening and
early tonight.

Also made minor updates to account for current conditions.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Cold front will approach from the west today as a strong shortwave
shifts east from the great lakes. Timing of the front will
preclude any severe storms in the forecast area as sufficient
moisture and instability won`t make it into western zones until
late this afternoon and early this evening past the time of max
heating. Will likely see remnants of stronger convection to the
west getting into the connecticut valley by mid afternoon and
spreading eastward across New Hampshire through early evening.

Brisk onshore flow will contribute to a robust marine layer in
southern Maine and southeast New Hampshire so expect convection to
diminish as it pushes into these areas during the late afternoon
and evening. Mountains and foothills of Maine will likely see
enough moisture and instability to get in on some spotty
thunderstorm activity during the late afternoon and evening. High
temps will be similar to Thursdays with most areas reaching the
lower to mid 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
Showers and thunderstorms will gradually push east of the forecast
area after midnight as the front slowly crosses the area. Behind
the front...westerly flow will bring clearing to the region toward
daybreak. Should see a fairly mild night with lows generally in
the mid 50s north to lower 60s south.

Saturday will feature a mix of sun and clouds in the mountains and
mostly sunny skies elsewhere as cooler and less humid air flows
into the region on increasing westerly winds. Highs will range
from the mid 60s to mid 70s north and upper 70s to lower 80s
south.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Fairly decent weather with mostly dry conditions in the long term
and increasing warmth. For Saturday night and Sunday expect
temperatures to be running cooler than normal. Can`t rule out an
isolated shower in the mountains Sunday afternoon. Temperatures
begin to warm Monday and by midweek the 500 ridge moves in with
temperatures rising into the mid and upper 80s in southern New
Hampshire and lower to mid 80s in southern Maine. A seabreeze will
develop keeping coastal communities a bit cooler.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Short Term...VFR today with areas of MVFR ceilings and vsby in
afternoon thunderstorms across New Hampshire. Areas of IFR/LIFR
ceilings/vsby overnight...especiallly in coastal and southern
interior Maine. VFR saturday.

Long Term...
Expect VFR through the period.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...No flags.

Long Term...Expect winds and seas to remain below SCA criteria.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...Jensenius
SHORT TERM...Jensenius
LONG TERM...Ekster
AVIATION...
MARINE...




000
FXUS61 KCAR 011301
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
901 AM EDT FRI JUL 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak high pressure will move east of the region today. A warm
front will cross the area tonight. A cold front will cross the
region Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
9 AM UPDATE...THE AIR IS WARMING QUICKLY UNDER CLEAR SKIES WITH
LIGHT WINDS SO HAD TO RAISE TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE, NO MAJOR CHANGES THIS HOUR.

Orgnl Disc: Some lctns are reporting intermittent shallow patchy
fog very erly this morn, but this should burn off shortly aft
sunrise. This will leave msly sunny skies for the region ovr the
majority of the day, with increasing cldnss by eve as a strong
s/wv trof apchs from the great lks. Hi temps will be several
degrees warmer than ystdy with the earlier start of sunshine and
fcst warmer aftn 925-850mb temps, allowing for most lower trrn
lctns N of the immediate coast to reach and exceed 80 deg F.

Cldnss will rapidly thicken this eve, with warm advcn shwrs
breaking out SW to NE across the region ovrngt. Pockets of
elevated CAPE up to 250 to 500 J/KG may result in embedded sct
nocturnal tstms with the rnfl which will result in brief higher
rnfl rates, but given little potential of training of stms, we do
not plan on any enhanced hvy rnfl wording attm. Rnfl amounts
across most of the FA up to Sat morn looks to arnd a hlf inch,
with lcly higher amounts spcly ovr cntrl/wrn high trrn lctns.
Ovrngt lows look to be mild; several deg abv seasonal norms.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
With the passage of the warm front early Saturday morning,
rainfall will end. It will leave the northeast corner of the state
last. The warm front will leave the forecast area in a rather
fleeting warm sector that will end abruptly with a powerful cold
front in the afternoon. Severe weather is a big concern and hinges
on the timing of the cold front. If the cold front is too fast and
the convective temperature is not reached, the area will dodge a
bullet as the dynamics for strong storms are compelling and
probably the best so far this season. Will not add enhanced
wording now due to the timing questions of whether the loaded gun
soundings will materialize in time. The current thinking is that
quick destabilization will occur from late morning into early
afternoon and the cold front will quickly sweep across the area
in the afternoon with potential for supercells. Damaging winds,
large hail, and even a brief tornado would all be possible if the
cold front is slow enough. The eastern border of the state is the
most likely recipient of severe storms and Washington County is
flashing the very best signals for severe. Among the parameters
giving rise to concern include mid- level lapse rates, SBCAPE, 0-6
bulk shear, 0-1 bulk shear, LCLs, BRN, 0-1 EHI and SIGTOR. If
timing doesn`t change with Friday`s 12Z guidance, it may be time
to add the enhanced wording.

Once the front crosses, cooler and drier air will rapidly advect
into the forecast area with lows dropping to the lower 50s. Upper
40s are possible through the Allagash and western mountains. Highs
on Sunday will be quite cool with mid to upper 60s north and low
to mid 70s for Bangor and Down East. These temperatures will be
accompanied by very gusty west winds reaching as high as 35 mph.
These winds and fully leaved trees could cause a few power
outages.  Will maintain chance pops for light showers in northern
Aroostook on Saturday night and Sunday. This same region will be
cloudy on Sunday while the southern half of the forecast area
receives more sunshine. Expect clearing skies Sunday night with
lows in the low 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Winds will be strong again on Monday with gusts again hitting over
35 mph with strong mixing and cool air aloft. Highs will be a bit
warmer with less cloud cover. This means low to mid 70s north and
upper 70s to near 80F south. Some guidance suggest an upper level
shortwave could sweep across the area with a few light showers and
will assign slight chance pops. The remainder of the period will
feature a warming trend with humidity creeping back up. Widespread
80s will return Wednesday and Thursday with the exception of
cooler temps on the coast. A cold front will gradually approach
later Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR xpctd tdy, xcpt for any brief pd of MVFR/IFR vsbys
with patchy fog erly this morn, contg this eve then clgs and vsbys
lowering to IFR region wide across all the TAF sites late Fri ngt
with shwrs and possible tstms.

SHORT TERM: IFR and MVFR cigs will quickly lift Saturday morning
and give way to VFR conditions. However, severe thunderstorms may
impact area terminals in the afternoon with large hail. Otherwise,
VFR conditions are expected later Saturday evening through
Tuesday. Winds will be a significant consideration Sunday and
Monday with gusts potentially reaching 30 kts.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: No hdlns xpctd attm, but S winds will increase with wv
hts tngt to just under SCA criteria. Wv pds will begin at 7 to 8.5
sec then diminish to 5.5 to 7 sec ovrngt as the wind wv component
increases. Went with about 85 to 90 percent of WW3 wv guidance for
fcst wv hts thru the near term. In addition, marine ST and fog
will likely lower vsbys ovrngt to 1 nm or less by daybreak Sat.

SHORT TERM: Fog will be the first concern over the waters well
into Saturday night. Thunderstorms are the next concern on
Saturday afternoon. With the holiday weekend and influx of
recreational boaters, these thunderstorms could cause issues with
sudden increases in winds and seas. These same recreational
boaters will be at risk again on Sunday with wind gusts reaching
nearly 25 kts and seas hitting around 4 feet. While an SCA
wouldn`t be strongly considered for these conditions in the
winter, public safety necessitate an advisory.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

Near Term...VJN/MCB
Short Term...MCW
Long Term...MCW
Aviation...VJN/MCW
Marine...VJN/MCW




000
FXUS61 KCAR 011301
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
901 AM EDT FRI JUL 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak high pressure will move east of the region today. A warm
front will cross the area tonight. A cold front will cross the
region Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
9 AM UPDATE...THE AIR IS WARMING QUICKLY UNDER CLEAR SKIES WITH
LIGHT WINDS SO HAD TO RAISE TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE, NO MAJOR CHANGES THIS HOUR.

Orgnl Disc: Some lctns are reporting intermittent shallow patchy
fog very erly this morn, but this should burn off shortly aft
sunrise. This will leave msly sunny skies for the region ovr the
majority of the day, with increasing cldnss by eve as a strong
s/wv trof apchs from the great lks. Hi temps will be several
degrees warmer than ystdy with the earlier start of sunshine and
fcst warmer aftn 925-850mb temps, allowing for most lower trrn
lctns N of the immediate coast to reach and exceed 80 deg F.

Cldnss will rapidly thicken this eve, with warm advcn shwrs
breaking out SW to NE across the region ovrngt. Pockets of
elevated CAPE up to 250 to 500 J/KG may result in embedded sct
nocturnal tstms with the rnfl which will result in brief higher
rnfl rates, but given little potential of training of stms, we do
not plan on any enhanced hvy rnfl wording attm. Rnfl amounts
across most of the FA up to Sat morn looks to arnd a hlf inch,
with lcly higher amounts spcly ovr cntrl/wrn high trrn lctns.
Ovrngt lows look to be mild; several deg abv seasonal norms.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
With the passage of the warm front early Saturday morning,
rainfall will end. It will leave the northeast corner of the state
last. The warm front will leave the forecast area in a rather
fleeting warm sector that will end abruptly with a powerful cold
front in the afternoon. Severe weather is a big concern and hinges
on the timing of the cold front. If the cold front is too fast and
the convective temperature is not reached, the area will dodge a
bullet as the dynamics for strong storms are compelling and
probably the best so far this season. Will not add enhanced
wording now due to the timing questions of whether the loaded gun
soundings will materialize in time. The current thinking is that
quick destabilization will occur from late morning into early
afternoon and the cold front will quickly sweep across the area
in the afternoon with potential for supercells. Damaging winds,
large hail, and even a brief tornado would all be possible if the
cold front is slow enough. The eastern border of the state is the
most likely recipient of severe storms and Washington County is
flashing the very best signals for severe. Among the parameters
giving rise to concern include mid- level lapse rates, SBCAPE, 0-6
bulk shear, 0-1 bulk shear, LCLs, BRN, 0-1 EHI and SIGTOR. If
timing doesn`t change with Friday`s 12Z guidance, it may be time
to add the enhanced wording.

Once the front crosses, cooler and drier air will rapidly advect
into the forecast area with lows dropping to the lower 50s. Upper
40s are possible through the Allagash and western mountains. Highs
on Sunday will be quite cool with mid to upper 60s north and low
to mid 70s for Bangor and Down East. These temperatures will be
accompanied by very gusty west winds reaching as high as 35 mph.
These winds and fully leaved trees could cause a few power
outages.  Will maintain chance pops for light showers in northern
Aroostook on Saturday night and Sunday. This same region will be
cloudy on Sunday while the southern half of the forecast area
receives more sunshine. Expect clearing skies Sunday night with
lows in the low 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Winds will be strong again on Monday with gusts again hitting over
35 mph with strong mixing and cool air aloft. Highs will be a bit
warmer with less cloud cover. This means low to mid 70s north and
upper 70s to near 80F south. Some guidance suggest an upper level
shortwave could sweep across the area with a few light showers and
will assign slight chance pops. The remainder of the period will
feature a warming trend with humidity creeping back up. Widespread
80s will return Wednesday and Thursday with the exception of
cooler temps on the coast. A cold front will gradually approach
later Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR xpctd tdy, xcpt for any brief pd of MVFR/IFR vsbys
with patchy fog erly this morn, contg this eve then clgs and vsbys
lowering to IFR region wide across all the TAF sites late Fri ngt
with shwrs and possible tstms.

SHORT TERM: IFR and MVFR cigs will quickly lift Saturday morning
and give way to VFR conditions. However, severe thunderstorms may
impact area terminals in the afternoon with large hail. Otherwise,
VFR conditions are expected later Saturday evening through
Tuesday. Winds will be a significant consideration Sunday and
Monday with gusts potentially reaching 30 kts.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: No hdlns xpctd attm, but S winds will increase with wv
hts tngt to just under SCA criteria. Wv pds will begin at 7 to 8.5
sec then diminish to 5.5 to 7 sec ovrngt as the wind wv component
increases. Went with about 85 to 90 percent of WW3 wv guidance for
fcst wv hts thru the near term. In addition, marine ST and fog
will likely lower vsbys ovrngt to 1 nm or less by daybreak Sat.

SHORT TERM: Fog will be the first concern over the waters well
into Saturday night. Thunderstorms are the next concern on
Saturday afternoon. With the holiday weekend and influx of
recreational boaters, these thunderstorms could cause issues with
sudden increases in winds and seas. These same recreational
boaters will be at risk again on Sunday with wind gusts reaching
nearly 25 kts and seas hitting around 4 feet. While an SCA
wouldn`t be strongly considered for these conditions in the
winter, public safety necessitate an advisory.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

Near Term...VJN/MCB
Short Term...MCW
Long Term...MCW
Aviation...VJN/MCW
Marine...VJN/MCW




000
FXUS61 KGYX 011122
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
722 AM EDT FRI JUL 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will approach from the west today and will cross the
region overnight. A trough of low pressure will linger over the
region Saturday and Sunday. High pressure will build in from the
west Sunday night through Tuesday and will shift offshore on
Wednesday.

&&
11z update...
Quick update to tweak temps and td`s. Just looking for variable
high and mid level cloudiness this morning before cloud shield
pushing into eastern New York arrives early this afternoon. Fairly
strong sea breeze will spread marine layer well inland early this
afternoon capping temps along the coast. Short-range models still
holding off convection in far western zones until late afternoon
and early evening. No other changes planned attm.


Previous discussion...
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Cold front will approach from the west today as a strong shortwave
shifts east from the great lakes. Timing of the front will
preclude any severe storms in the forecast area as sufficient
moisture and instability won`t make it into western zones until
late this afternoon and early this evening past the time of max
heating. Will likely see remnants of stronger convection to the
west getting into the connecticut valley by mid afternoon and
spreading eastward across New Hampshire through early evening.

Brisk onshore flow will contribute to a robust marine layer in
southern Maine and southeast New Hampshire so expect convection to
diminish as it pushes into these areas during the late afternoon
and evening. Mountains and foothills of Maine will likely see
enough moisture and instability to get in on some spotty
thunderstorm activity during the late afternoon and evening. High
temps will be similar to Thursdays with most areas reaching the
lower to mid 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
Showers and thunderstorms will gradually push east of the forecast
area after midnight as the front slowly crosses the area. Behind
the front...westerly flow will bring clearing to the region toward
daybreak. Should see a fairly mild night with lows generally in
the mid 50s north to lower 60s south.

Saturday will feature a mix of sun and clouds in the mountains and
mostly sunny skies elsewhere as cooler and less humid air flows
into the region on increasing westerly winds. Highs will range
from the mid 60s to mid 70s north and upper 70s to lower 80s
south.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Fairly decent weather with mostly dry conditions in the long term
and increasing warmth. For Saturday night and Sunday expect
temperatures to be running cooler than normal. Can`t rule out an
isolated shower in the mountains Sunday afternoon. Temperatures
begin to warm Monday and by midweek the 500 ridge moves in with
temperatures rising into the mid and upper 80s in southern New
Hampshire and lower to mid 80s in southern Maine. A seabreeze will
develop keeping coastal communities a bit cooler.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Short Term...VFR today with areas of MVFR ceilings and vsby in
afternoon thunderstorms across New Hampshire. Areas of IFR/LIFR
ceilings/vsby overnight...especiallly in coastal and southern
interior Maine. VFR saturday.

Long Term...
Expect VFR through the period.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...No flags.

Long Term...Expect winds and seas to remain below SCA criteria.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KCAR 011024
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
624 AM EDT FRI JUL 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak high pressure will move east of the region today. A warm
front will cross the area tonight. A cold front will cross the
region Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
600 AM Update: Any patchy fog has already msly dissipated.
Otherwise, we added a bit more hi/mid cldnss for the next couple
of hrs ovr Downeast ptns of the FA based on latest sat imagery,
which shows this patchy cldnss quickly movg toward NB prov by mid
morn. Lastly, we incorporated obsvd low temps from last ngt and
5-6am obsvd temps used trends from these hrs to update fcst hrly
temps into midday. Rest of near term fcst elements remained unchgd
this fcst update.

Orgnl Disc: Some lctns are reporting intermittent shallow patchy
fog very erly this morn, but this should burn off shortly aft
sunrise. This will leave msly sunny skies for the region ovr the
majority of the day, with increasing cldnss by eve as a strong
s/wv trof apchs from the great lks. Hi temps will be several
degrees warmer than ystdy with the earlier start of sunshine and
fcst warmer aftn 925-850mb temps, allowing for most lower trrn
lctns N of the immediate coast to reach and exceed 80 deg F.

Cldnss will rapidly thicken this eve, with warm advcn shwrs
breaking out SW to NE across the region ovrngt. Pockets of
elevated CAPE up to 250 to 500 J/KG may result in embedded sct
nocturnal tstms with the rnfl which will result in brief higher
rnfl rates, but given little potential of training of stms, we do
not plan on any enhanced hvy rnfl wording attm. Rnfl amounts
across most of the FA up to Sat morn looks to arnd a hlf inch,
with lcly higher amounts spcly ovr cntrl/wrn high trrn lctns.
Ovrngt lows look to be mild; several deg abv seasonal norms.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
With the passage of the warm front early Saturday morning,
rainfall will end. It will leave the northeast corner of the state
last. The warm front will leave the forecast area in a rather
fleeting warm sector that will end abruptly with a powerful cold
front in the afternoon. Severe weather is a big concern and hinges
on the timing of the cold front. If the cold front is too fast and
the convective temperature is not reached, the area will dodge a
bullet as the dynamics for strong storms are compelling and
probably the best so far this season. Will not add enhanced
wording now due to the timing questions of whether the loaded gun
soundings will materialize in time. The current thinking is that
quick destabilization will occur from late morning into early
afternoon and the cold front will quickly sweep across the area
in the afternoon with potential for supercells. Damaging winds,
large hail, and even a brief tornado would all be possible if the
cold front is slow enough. The eastern border of the state is the
most likely recipient of severe storms and Washington County is
flashing the very best signals for severe. Among the parameters
giving rise to concern include mid- level lapse rates, SBCAPE, 0-6
bulk shear, 0-1 bulk shear, LCLs, BRN, 0-1 EHI and SIGTOR. If
timing doesn`t change with Friday`s 12Z guidance, it may be time
to add the enhanced wording.

Once the front crosses, cooler and drier air will rapidly advect
into the forecast area with lows dropping to the lower 50s. Upper
40s are possible through the Allagash and western mountains. Highs
on Sunday will be quite cool with mid to upper 60s north and low
to mid 70s for Bangor and Down East. These temperatures will be
accompanied by very gusty west winds reaching as high as 35 mph.
These winds and fully leaved trees could cause a few power
outages.  Will maintain chance pops for light showers in northern
Aroostook on Saturday night and Sunday. This same region will be
cloudy on Sunday while the southern half of the forecast area
receives more sunshine. Expect clearing skies Sunday night with
lows in the low 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Winds will be strong again on Monday with gusts again hitting over
35 mph with strong mixing and cool air aloft. Highs will be a bit
warmer with less cloud cover. This means low to mid 70s north and
upper 70s to near 80F south. Some guidance suggest an upper level
shortwave could sweep across the area with a few light showers and
will assign slight chance pops. The remainder of the period will
feature a warming trend with humidity creeping back up. Widespread
80s will return Wednesday and Thursday with the exception of
cooler temps on the coast. A cold front will gradually approach
later Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR xpctd tdy, xcpt for any brief pd of MVFR/IFR vsbys
with patchy fog erly this morn, contg this eve then clgs and vsbys
lowering to IFR region wide across all the TAF sites late Fri ngt
with shwrs and possible tstms.

SHORT TERM: IFR and MVFR cigs will quickly lift Saturday morning
and give way to VFR conditions. However, severe thunderstorms may
impact area terminals in the afternoon with large hail. Otherwise,
VFR conditions are expected later Saturday evening through
Tuesday. Winds will be a significant consideration Sunday and
Monday with gusts potentially reaching 30 kts.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: No hdlns xpctd attm, but S winds will increase with wv
hts tngt to just under SCA criteria. Wv pds will begin at 7 to 8.5
sec then diminish to 5.5 to 7 sec ovrngt as the wind wv component
increases. Went with about 85 to 90 percent of WW3 wv guidance for
fcst wv hts thru the near term. In addition, marine ST and fog
will likely lower vsbys ovrngt to 1 nm or less by daybreak Sat.

SHORT TERM: Fog will be the first concern over the waters well
into Saturday night. Thunderstorms are the next concern on
Saturday afternoon. With the holiday weekend and influx of
recreational boaters, these thunderstorms could cause issues with
sudden increases in winds and seas. These same recreational
boaters will be at risk again on Sunday with wind gusts reaching
nearly 25 kts and seas hitting around 4 feet. While an SCA
wouldn`t be strongly considered for these conditions in the
winter, public safety necessitate an advisory.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$

Near Term...VJN
Short Term...MCW
Long Term...MCW
Aviation...VJN/MCW
Marine...VJN/MCW




000
FXUS61 KCAR 011024
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
624 AM EDT FRI JUL 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak high pressure will move east of the region today. A warm
front will cross the area tonight. A cold front will cross the
region Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
600 AM Update: Any patchy fog has already msly dissipated.
Otherwise, we added a bit more hi/mid cldnss for the next couple
of hrs ovr Downeast ptns of the FA based on latest sat imagery,
which shows this patchy cldnss quickly movg toward NB prov by mid
morn. Lastly, we incorporated obsvd low temps from last ngt and
5-6am obsvd temps used trends from these hrs to update fcst hrly
temps into midday. Rest of near term fcst elements remained unchgd
this fcst update.

Orgnl Disc: Some lctns are reporting intermittent shallow patchy
fog very erly this morn, but this should burn off shortly aft
sunrise. This will leave msly sunny skies for the region ovr the
majority of the day, with increasing cldnss by eve as a strong
s/wv trof apchs from the great lks. Hi temps will be several
degrees warmer than ystdy with the earlier start of sunshine and
fcst warmer aftn 925-850mb temps, allowing for most lower trrn
lctns N of the immediate coast to reach and exceed 80 deg F.

Cldnss will rapidly thicken this eve, with warm advcn shwrs
breaking out SW to NE across the region ovrngt. Pockets of
elevated CAPE up to 250 to 500 J/KG may result in embedded sct
nocturnal tstms with the rnfl which will result in brief higher
rnfl rates, but given little potential of training of stms, we do
not plan on any enhanced hvy rnfl wording attm. Rnfl amounts
across most of the FA up to Sat morn looks to arnd a hlf inch,
with lcly higher amounts spcly ovr cntrl/wrn high trrn lctns.
Ovrngt lows look to be mild; several deg abv seasonal norms.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
With the passage of the warm front early Saturday morning,
rainfall will end. It will leave the northeast corner of the state
last. The warm front will leave the forecast area in a rather
fleeting warm sector that will end abruptly with a powerful cold
front in the afternoon. Severe weather is a big concern and hinges
on the timing of the cold front. If the cold front is too fast and
the convective temperature is not reached, the area will dodge a
bullet as the dynamics for strong storms are compelling and
probably the best so far this season. Will not add enhanced
wording now due to the timing questions of whether the loaded gun
soundings will materialize in time. The current thinking is that
quick destabilization will occur from late morning into early
afternoon and the cold front will quickly sweep across the area
in the afternoon with potential for supercells. Damaging winds,
large hail, and even a brief tornado would all be possible if the
cold front is slow enough. The eastern border of the state is the
most likely recipient of severe storms and Washington County is
flashing the very best signals for severe. Among the parameters
giving rise to concern include mid- level lapse rates, SBCAPE, 0-6
bulk shear, 0-1 bulk shear, LCLs, BRN, 0-1 EHI and SIGTOR. If
timing doesn`t change with Friday`s 12Z guidance, it may be time
to add the enhanced wording.

Once the front crosses, cooler and drier air will rapidly advect
into the forecast area with lows dropping to the lower 50s. Upper
40s are possible through the Allagash and western mountains. Highs
on Sunday will be quite cool with mid to upper 60s north and low
to mid 70s for Bangor and Down East. These temperatures will be
accompanied by very gusty west winds reaching as high as 35 mph.
These winds and fully leaved trees could cause a few power
outages.  Will maintain chance pops for light showers in northern
Aroostook on Saturday night and Sunday. This same region will be
cloudy on Sunday while the southern half of the forecast area
receives more sunshine. Expect clearing skies Sunday night with
lows in the low 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Winds will be strong again on Monday with gusts again hitting over
35 mph with strong mixing and cool air aloft. Highs will be a bit
warmer with less cloud cover. This means low to mid 70s north and
upper 70s to near 80F south. Some guidance suggest an upper level
shortwave could sweep across the area with a few light showers and
will assign slight chance pops. The remainder of the period will
feature a warming trend with humidity creeping back up. Widespread
80s will return Wednesday and Thursday with the exception of
cooler temps on the coast. A cold front will gradually approach
later Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR xpctd tdy, xcpt for any brief pd of MVFR/IFR vsbys
with patchy fog erly this morn, contg this eve then clgs and vsbys
lowering to IFR region wide across all the TAF sites late Fri ngt
with shwrs and possible tstms.

SHORT TERM: IFR and MVFR cigs will quickly lift Saturday morning
and give way to VFR conditions. However, severe thunderstorms may
impact area terminals in the afternoon with large hail. Otherwise,
VFR conditions are expected later Saturday evening through
Tuesday. Winds will be a significant consideration Sunday and
Monday with gusts potentially reaching 30 kts.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: No hdlns xpctd attm, but S winds will increase with wv
hts tngt to just under SCA criteria. Wv pds will begin at 7 to 8.5
sec then diminish to 5.5 to 7 sec ovrngt as the wind wv component
increases. Went with about 85 to 90 percent of WW3 wv guidance for
fcst wv hts thru the near term. In addition, marine ST and fog
will likely lower vsbys ovrngt to 1 nm or less by daybreak Sat.

SHORT TERM: Fog will be the first concern over the waters well
into Saturday night. Thunderstorms are the next concern on
Saturday afternoon. With the holiday weekend and influx of
recreational boaters, these thunderstorms could cause issues with
sudden increases in winds and seas. These same recreational
boaters will be at risk again on Sunday with wind gusts reaching
nearly 25 kts and seas hitting around 4 feet. While an SCA
wouldn`t be strongly considered for these conditions in the
winter, public safety necessitate an advisory.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$

Near Term...VJN
Short Term...MCW
Long Term...MCW
Aviation...VJN/MCW
Marine...VJN/MCW




000
FXUS61 KCAR 011015
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
615 AM EDT FRI JUL 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak high pressure will move east of the region today. A warm
front will cross the area tonight. A cold front will cross the
region Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
600 AM Update: Any patchy fog has already msly dissipated.
Otherwise, we added a bit more hi/mid cldnss for the next couple
of hrs ovr Downeast ptns of the FA based on latest sat imagery,
which shows this patchy cldnss quickly movg toward NB prov by mid
morn. Lastly, we incorporated obsvd low temps from last ngt and
5-6am obsvd temps used trends from these hrs to update fcst hrly
temps into midday. Rest of near term fcst elements remained unchgd
this fcst update.

Orgnl Disc: Some lctns are reporting intermittent shallow patchy
fog very erly this morn, but this should burn off shortly aft
sunrise. This will leave msly sunny skies for the region ovr the
majority of the day, with increasing cldnss by eve as a strong
s/wv trof apchs from the great lks. Hi temps will be several
degrees warmer than ystdy with the earlier start of sunshine and
fcst warmer aftn 925-850mb temps, allowing for most lower trrn
lctns N of the immediate coast to reach and exceed 80 deg F.

Cldnss will rapidly thicken this eve, with warm advcn shwrs
breaking out SW to NE across the region ovrngt. Pockets of
elevated CAPE up to 250 J/KG may result in embedded sct nocturnal
tstms with the rnfl which will result in brief higher rnfl rates,
but given little potential of training of stms, we do not plan on
any enhanced hvy rnfl wording attm. Rnfl amounts across most of
the FA up to Sat morn looks to arnd a hlf inch, with lcly higher
amounts spcly ovr cntrl/wrn high trrn lctns. Ovrngt lows look to
be mild; several deg abv seasonal norms.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
With the passage of the warm front early Saturday morning,
rainfall will end. It will leave the northeast corner of the state
last. The warm front will leave the forecast area in a rather
fleeting warm sector that will end abruptly with a powerful cold
front in the afternoon. Severe weather is a big concern and hinges
on the timing of the cold front. If the cold front is too fast and
the convective temperature is not reached, the area will dodge a
bullet as the dynamics for strong storms are compelling and
probably the best so far this season. Will not add enhanced
wording now due to the timing questions of whether the loaded gun
soundings will materialize in time. The current thinking is that
quick destabilization will occur from late morning into early
afternoon and the cold front will quickly sweep across the area
in the afternoon with potential for supercells. Damaging winds,
large hail, and even a brief tornado would all be possible if the
cold front is slow enough. The eastern border of the state is the
most likely recipient of severe storms and Washington County is
flashing the very best signals for severe. Among the parameters
giving rise to concern include mid- level lapse rates, SBCAPE, 0-6
bulk shear, 0-1 bulk shear, LCLs, BRN, 0-1 EHI and SIGTOR. If
timing doesn`t change with Friday`s 12Z guidance, it may be time
to add the enhanced wording.

Once the front crosses, cooler and drier air will rapidly advect
into the forecast area with lows dropping to the lower 50s. Upper
40s are possible through the Allagash and western mountains. Highs
on Sunday will be quite cool with mid to upper 60s north and low
to mid 70s for Bangor and Down East. These temperatures will be
accompanied by very gusty west winds reaching as high as 35 mph.
These winds and fully leaved trees could cause a few power
outages.  Will maintain chance pops for light showers in northern
Aroostook on Saturday night and Sunday. This same region will be
cloudy on Sunday while the southern half of the forecast area
receives more sunshine. Expect clearing skies Sunday night with
lows in the low 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Winds will be strong again on Monday with gusts again hitting over
35 mph with strong mixing and cool air aloft. Highs will be a bit
warmer with less cloud cover. This means low to mid 70s north and
upper 70s to near 80F south. Some guidance suggest an upper level
shortwave could sweep across the area with a few light showers and
will assign slight chance pops. The remainder of the period will
feature a warming trend with humidity creeping back up. Widespread
80s will return Wednesday and Thursday with the exception of
cooler temps on the coast. A cold front will gradually approach
later Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR xpctd tdy, xcpt for any brief pd of MVFR/IFR vsbys
with patchy fog erly this morn, contg this eve then clgs and vsbys
lowering to IFR region wide across all the TAF sites late Fri ngt
with shwrs and possible tstms.

SHORT TERM: IFR and MVFR cigs will quickly lift Saturday morning
and give way to VFR conditions. However, severe thunderstorms may
impact area terminals in the afternoon with large hail. Otherwise,
VFR conditions are expected later Saturday evening through
Tuesday. Winds will be a significant consideration Sunday and
Monday with gusts potentially reaching 30 kts.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: No hdlns xpctd attm, but S winds will increase with wv
hts tngt to just under SCA criteria. Wv pds will begin at 7 to 8.5
sec then diminish to 5.5 to 7 sec ovrngt as the wind wv component
increases. Went with about 85 to 90 percent of WW3 wv guidance for
fcst wv hts thru the near term. In addition, marine ST and fog
will likely lower vsbys ovrngt to 1 nm or less by daybreak Sat.

SHORT TERM: Fog will be the first concern over the waters well
into Saturday night. Thunderstorms are the next concern on
Saturday afternoon. With the holiday weekend and influx of
recreational boaters, these thunderstorms could cause issues with
sudden increases in winds and seas. These same recreational
boaters will be at risk again on Sunday with wind gusts reaching
nearly 25 kts and seas hitting around 4 feet. While an SCA
wouldn`t be strongly considered for these conditions in the
winter, public safety necessitate an advisory.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$

Near Term...VJN
Short Term...MCW
Long Term...MCW
Aviation...VJN/MCW
Marine...VJN/MCW




000
FXUS61 KCAR 010741
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
341 AM EDT FRI JUL 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak high pressure will move east of the region today. A warm
front will cross the area tonight. A cold front will cross the
region Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Some lctns are reporting intermittent shallow patchy fog very
erly this morn, but this should burn off shortly aft sunrise.
This will leave msly sunny skies for the region ovr the majority
of the day, with increasing cldnss by eve as a strong s/wv trof
apchs from the great lks. Hi temps will be several degrees warmer
than ystdy with the earlier start of sunshine and fcst warmer aftn
925-850mb temps, allowing for most lower trrn lctns N of the
immediate coast to reach and exceed 80 deg F.

Cldnss will rapidly thicken this eve, with warm advcn shwrs
breaking out SW to NE across the region ovrngt. Pockets of
elevated CAPE up to 250 J/KG may result in embedded sct nocturnal
tstms with the rnfl which will result in brief higher rnfl rates,
but given little potential of training of stms, we do not plan on
any enhanced hvy rnfl wording attm. Rnfl amounts across most of
the FA up to Sat morn looks to arnd a hlf inch, with lcly higher
amounts spcly ovr cntrl/wrn high trrn lctns. Ovrngt lows look to
be mild; several deg abv seasonal norms.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
With the passage of the warm front early Saturday morning,
rainfall will end. It will leave the northeast corner of the state
last. The warm front will leave the forecast area in a rather
fleeting warm sector that will end abruptly with a powerful cold
front in the afternoon. Severe weather is a big concern and hinges
on the timing of the cold front. If the cold front is too fast and
the convective temperature is not reached, the area will dodge a
bullet as the dynamics for strong storms are compelling and
probably the best so far this season. Will not add enhanced
wording now due to the timing questions of whether the loaded gun
soundings will materialize in time. The current thinking is that
quick destabilization will occur from late morning into early
afternoon and the cold front will quickly sweep across the area
in the afternoon with potential for supercells. Damaging winds,
large hail, and even a brief tornado would all be possible if the
cold front is slow enough. The eastern border of the state is the
most likely recipient of severe storms and Washington County is
flashing the very best signals for severe. Among the parameters
giving rise to concern include mid- level lapse rates, SBCAPE, 0-6
bulk shear, 0-1 bulk shear, LCLs, BRN, 0-1 EHI and SIGTOR. If
timing doesn`t change with Friday`s 12Z guidance, it may be time
to add the enhanced wording.

Once the front crosses, cooler and drier air will rapidly advect
into the forecast area with lows dropping to the lower 50s. Upper
40s are possible through the Allagash and western mountains. Highs
on Sunday will be quite cool with mid to upper 60s north and low
to mid 70s for Bangor and Down East. These temperatures will be
accompanied by very gusty west winds reaching as high as 35 mph.
These winds and fully leaved trees could cause a few power
outages.  Will maintain chance pops for light showers in northern
Aroostook on Saturday night and Sunday. This same region will be
cloudy on Sunday while the southern half of the forecast area
receives more sunshine. Expect clearing skies Sunday night with
lows in the low 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Winds will be strong again on Monday with gusts again hitting over
35 mph with strong mixing and cool air aloft. Highs will be a bit
warmer with less cloud cover. This means low to mid 70s north and
upper 70s to near 80F south. Some guidance suggest an upper level
shortwave could sweep across the area with a few light showers and
will assign slight chance pops. The remainder of the period will
feature a warming trend with humidity creeping back up. Widespread
80s will return Wednesday and Thursday with the exception of
cooler temps on the coast. A cold front will gradually approach
later Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR xpctd tdy, xcpt for any brief pd of MVFR/IFR vsbys
with patchy fog erly this morn, contg this eve then clgs and vsbys
lowering to IFR region wide across all the TAF sites late Fri ngt
with shwrs and possible tstms.

SHORT TERM: IFR and MVFR cigs will quickly lift Saturday morning
and give way to VFR conditions. However, severe thunderstorms may
impact area terminals in the afternoon with large hail. Otherwise,
VFR conditions are expected later Saturday evening through
Tuesday. Winds will be a significant consideration Sunday and
Monday with gusts potentially reaching 30 kts.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: No hdlns xpctd attm, but S winds will increase with wv
hts tngt to just under SCA criteria. Wv pds will begin at 7 to 8.5
sec then diminish to 5.5 to 7 sec ovrngt as the wind wv component
increases. Went with about 85 to 90 percent of WW3 wv guidance for
fcst wv hts thru the near term. In addition, marine ST and fog
will likely lower vsbys ovrngt to 1 nm or less by daybreak Sat.

SHORT TERM: Fog will be the first concern over the waters well
into Saturday night. Thunderstorms are the next concern on
Saturday afternoon. With the holiday weekend and influx of
recreational boaters, these thunderstorms could cause issues with
sudden increases in winds and seas. These same recreational
boaters will be at risk again on Sunday with wind gusts reaching
nearly 25 kts and seas hitting around 4 feet. While an SCA
wouldn`t be strongly considered for these conditions in the
winter, public safety necessitate an advisory.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$

Near Term...VJN
Short Term...MCW
Long Term...MCW
Aviation...VJN/MCW
Marine...VJN/MCW




000
FXUS61 KCAR 010741
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
341 AM EDT FRI JUL 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak high pressure will move east of the region today. A warm
front will cross the area tonight. A cold front will cross the
region Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Some lctns are reporting intermittent shallow patchy fog very
erly this morn, but this should burn off shortly aft sunrise.
This will leave msly sunny skies for the region ovr the majority
of the day, with increasing cldnss by eve as a strong s/wv trof
apchs from the great lks. Hi temps will be several degrees warmer
than ystdy with the earlier start of sunshine and fcst warmer aftn
925-850mb temps, allowing for most lower trrn lctns N of the
immediate coast to reach and exceed 80 deg F.

Cldnss will rapidly thicken this eve, with warm advcn shwrs
breaking out SW to NE across the region ovrngt. Pockets of
elevated CAPE up to 250 J/KG may result in embedded sct nocturnal
tstms with the rnfl which will result in brief higher rnfl rates,
but given little potential of training of stms, we do not plan on
any enhanced hvy rnfl wording attm. Rnfl amounts across most of
the FA up to Sat morn looks to arnd a hlf inch, with lcly higher
amounts spcly ovr cntrl/wrn high trrn lctns. Ovrngt lows look to
be mild; several deg abv seasonal norms.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
With the passage of the warm front early Saturday morning,
rainfall will end. It will leave the northeast corner of the state
last. The warm front will leave the forecast area in a rather
fleeting warm sector that will end abruptly with a powerful cold
front in the afternoon. Severe weather is a big concern and hinges
on the timing of the cold front. If the cold front is too fast and
the convective temperature is not reached, the area will dodge a
bullet as the dynamics for strong storms are compelling and
probably the best so far this season. Will not add enhanced
wording now due to the timing questions of whether the loaded gun
soundings will materialize in time. The current thinking is that
quick destabilization will occur from late morning into early
afternoon and the cold front will quickly sweep across the area
in the afternoon with potential for supercells. Damaging winds,
large hail, and even a brief tornado would all be possible if the
cold front is slow enough. The eastern border of the state is the
most likely recipient of severe storms and Washington County is
flashing the very best signals for severe. Among the parameters
giving rise to concern include mid- level lapse rates, SBCAPE, 0-6
bulk shear, 0-1 bulk shear, LCLs, BRN, 0-1 EHI and SIGTOR. If
timing doesn`t change with Friday`s 12Z guidance, it may be time
to add the enhanced wording.

Once the front crosses, cooler and drier air will rapidly advect
into the forecast area with lows dropping to the lower 50s. Upper
40s are possible through the Allagash and western mountains. Highs
on Sunday will be quite cool with mid to upper 60s north and low
to mid 70s for Bangor and Down East. These temperatures will be
accompanied by very gusty west winds reaching as high as 35 mph.
These winds and fully leaved trees could cause a few power
outages.  Will maintain chance pops for light showers in northern
Aroostook on Saturday night and Sunday. This same region will be
cloudy on Sunday while the southern half of the forecast area
receives more sunshine. Expect clearing skies Sunday night with
lows in the low 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Winds will be strong again on Monday with gusts again hitting over
35 mph with strong mixing and cool air aloft. Highs will be a bit
warmer with less cloud cover. This means low to mid 70s north and
upper 70s to near 80F south. Some guidance suggest an upper level
shortwave could sweep across the area with a few light showers and
will assign slight chance pops. The remainder of the period will
feature a warming trend with humidity creeping back up. Widespread
80s will return Wednesday and Thursday with the exception of
cooler temps on the coast. A cold front will gradually approach
later Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR xpctd tdy, xcpt for any brief pd of MVFR/IFR vsbys
with patchy fog erly this morn, contg this eve then clgs and vsbys
lowering to IFR region wide across all the TAF sites late Fri ngt
with shwrs and possible tstms.

SHORT TERM: IFR and MVFR cigs will quickly lift Saturday morning
and give way to VFR conditions. However, severe thunderstorms may
impact area terminals in the afternoon with large hail. Otherwise,
VFR conditions are expected later Saturday evening through
Tuesday. Winds will be a significant consideration Sunday and
Monday with gusts potentially reaching 30 kts.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: No hdlns xpctd attm, but S winds will increase with wv
hts tngt to just under SCA criteria. Wv pds will begin at 7 to 8.5
sec then diminish to 5.5 to 7 sec ovrngt as the wind wv component
increases. Went with about 85 to 90 percent of WW3 wv guidance for
fcst wv hts thru the near term. In addition, marine ST and fog
will likely lower vsbys ovrngt to 1 nm or less by daybreak Sat.

SHORT TERM: Fog will be the first concern over the waters well
into Saturday night. Thunderstorms are the next concern on
Saturday afternoon. With the holiday weekend and influx of
recreational boaters, these thunderstorms could cause issues with
sudden increases in winds and seas. These same recreational
boaters will be at risk again on Sunday with wind gusts reaching
nearly 25 kts and seas hitting around 4 feet. While an SCA
wouldn`t be strongly considered for these conditions in the
winter, public safety necessitate an advisory.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$

Near Term...VJN
Short Term...MCW
Long Term...MCW
Aviation...VJN/MCW
Marine...VJN/MCW




000
FXUS61 KGYX 010719
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
319 AM EDT FRI JUL 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will approach from the west today and will cross the
region overnight. A trough of low pressure will linger over the
region Saturday and Sunday. High pressure will build in from the
west Sunday night through Tuesday and will shift offshore on
Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
Cold front will approach from the west today as a strong shortwave
shifts east from the great lakes. Timing of the front will
preclude any severe storms in the forecast area as sufficient
moisture and instability won`t make it into western zones until
late this afternoon and early this evening past the time of max
heating. Will likely see remnants of stronger convection to the
west getting into the connecticut valley by mid afternoon and
spreading eastward across New Hampshire through early evening.

Brisk onshore flow will contribute to a robust marine layer in
southern Maine and southeast New Hampshire so expect convection to
diminish as it pushes into these areas during the late afternoon
and evening. Mountains and foothills of Maine will likely see
enough moisture and instability to get in on some spotty
thunderstorm activity during the late afternoon and evening. High
temps will be similar to Thursdays with most areas reaching the
lower to mid 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
Showers and thunderstorms will gradually push east of the forecast
area after midnight as the front slowly crosses the area. Behind
the front...westerly flow will bring clearing to the region toward
daybreak. Should see a fairly mild night with lows generally in
the mid 50s north to lower 60s south.

Saturday will feature a mix of sun and clouds in the mountains and
mostly sunny skies elsewhere as cooler and less humid air flows
into the region on increasing westerly winds. Highs will range
from the mid 60s to mid 70s north and upper 70s to lower 80s
south.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Fairly decent weather with mostly dry conditions in the long term
and increasing warmth. For Saturday night and Sunday expect
temperatures to be running cooler than normal. Can`t rule out an
isolated shower in the mountains Sunday afternoon. Temperatures
begin to warm Monday and by midweek the 500 ridge moves in with
temperatures rising into the mid and upper 80s in southern New
Hampshire and lower to mid 80s in southern Maine. A seabreeze will
develop keeping coastal communities a bit cooler.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Short Term...VFR today with areas of MVFR ceilings and vsby in
afternoon thunderstorms across New Hampshire. Areas of IFR/LIFR
ceilings/vsby overnight...especiallly in coastal and southern
interior Maine. VFR saturday.

Long Term...
Expect VFR through the period.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...No flags.

Long Term...Expect winds and seas to remain below SCA criteria.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KCAR 010442
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
1242 AM EDT FRI JUL 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak high pressure will build over the region tonight then move
east on Friday. A warm front will cross the area Friday night. A
cold front will cross the region Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1225 AM Update: We added patchy fog for the late ngt in the broad
rvr vlys this update in addition to the near coastal areas given
lgt winds, clr skies, and left ovr BL moisture from the prev rn
event. Otherwise, fcst hrly temps for the remainder of the ovrngt
to fcst lows posted at 5am were updated based on bias trends seen
with 11pm-mdngt obsvd temps from the prev fcst temps at these hrs.

Prev disc: Skies will clear this evening as a weak upper ridge
builds in from the west. Tonight will then be clear with light
winds. Some patchy fog is possible in a few low lying areas,
especially where the ground has been moistened from rain. Friday
will then be sunny and very warm as surface high pressure slides
to our south and the upper level ridge slowly moves to our east. A
southerly breeze will increase in the afternoon as a new trough of
low pressure approaches from the west and clouds will begin to
increase from the west very late in the afternoon. Some showers
may stray into far western areas at the end of the day.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
An occluded front will cross the region Friday night through early
Saturday with showers and thunderstorms. A secondary cold front
will cross the region Saturday afternoon while an upper level low
approaches northwest areas. Temperatures aloft will cool Saturday
afternoon along with steepening mid level lapse rates which will
increase instability. An upper level disturbance rotating around
the upper low will cross the region during the afternoon along
with the surface cold front. Any diurnal heating will also
increase afternoon instability and thunderstorm potential. Strong
to possibly severe thunderstorms could occur across the region
Saturday afternoon into the evening. The upper low will then track
north of Maine Saturday night, keeping mostly cloudy skies along
with a chance of showers across northern areas. Generally expect
partly cloudy skies Downeast Saturday night. The upper low will
exit across the maritimes Sunday, with a surface trof crossing
the region. Expect partly/mostly cloudy skies across the north
and mountains Sunday with isolated to scattered showers.
Partly/mostly sunny skies are expected Downeast Sunday.
Temperatures are expected to be at near normal levels Saturday.
Near normal, to slightly below normal, level temperatures are
expected Sunday.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of right now, it looks like most of the area should have a
decent Independence Day on Monday as ridging builds in from the
west and heights rise. There are some hints of potential shower or
thunderstorm activity up north on a few recent model runs, but
kept POPs under 25 percent for the most part. While neither the
ECMWF or the GFS have any significant weather features affecting
the state through Day 8, they both take very different solutions.
The ECMWF is decidedly the `wetter` solution, with a couple
upper-level shortwaves pushing disturbances and showers through
the CWA. The GFS, on the other hand, is much drier courtesy of a
stronger and more durable upper ridge. For now, mostly kept POPs
under 25 or 30 percent until the models can hopefully come into
better agreement.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR conditions are expected across the area tonight
and Friday. The only possible exception may be some patchy fog in
some spots before dawn on Friday.

SHORT TERM: MVFR to LIFR conditions are expected across the
region Friday night into early Saturday with showers and
thunderstorms. Occasional MVFR to LIFR conditions with showers
and thunderstorms are expected Saturday afternoon. Occasional MVFR
conditions are possible across northern areas Saturday night with
VFR conditions across the remainder of the forecast area.
Generally expect VFR conditions across the region Sunday into
Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds and seas are expected to be below SCA through
Friday. A southerly breeze will increase Friday afternoon and a
few gusts may reach 15 to 20 kt late in the day.

SHORT TERM: Winds/seas are expected to remain below small craft
advisory levels Friday night into Sunday. Visibilities will be
reduced in fog Friday night into Saturday night. Showers and
thunderstorms are also expected Friday night, with still a chance
of showers Saturday.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

Near Term...VJN
Short Term...Norcross
Long Term...Kredensor
Aviation...VJN/Norcross
Marine...VJN/Norcross




000
FXUS61 KGYX 010204 AAB
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Gray ME
1004 PM EDT THU JUN 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will move over the region tonight and be followed by
an approaching cold front on Friday. This front will cross the
region Friday night, bringing scattered showers and
thunderstorms Friday afternoon and night. High pressure will
build in from the west Saturday through Tuesday, bringing fair
and gradually warming conditions.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
1005 Update...
Have adjusted the temperatures and dew point temperatures for the
overnight period and rerun a few weather grids for fog. Clouds
cover was also adjusted.



7 PM Update...
After a brief fall dew points will stay steady or increase into
the 50s overnight...this is especially true over southern
sections. Across the north we will not see appreciable increases
in dps until tomorrow mid morning...but temperatures will be lower
than to the south. This may be enough for some patchy fog and
this was added to the forecast. The forecast was adjusted for
nocturnal and diurnal temperature and dew point temperature
curves.



Previous discussion...
Scattered cumulus will decrease in coverage across the region
tonight as high pressure moves in. Dewpoints have been steadily
dropping as dry air moves in behind yesterdays cold front with
most of New Hampshire now in the upper 40s.... with overnight
temperatures only dropping to the 50s this should limit fog
formation inland. Along the coast winds will slowly turn onshore
overnight...pushing some fog into Rockland and the midcoast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Friday will start off sunny with southerly flow developing ahead
of an approaching low. A short wave and surface low will dive
southwards out of Canada on Friday pushing another cold front
through the region. High dewpoints will again move in ahead of
the front making for a sticky afternoon. Moderate CAPE values
ahead of the front may result in thunderstorms...especially in the
CT river valley where the front will arrive closer to maximum
heating. While the shear is sufficient for severe
thunderstorms... the cloud cover may limit surface heating so any
severe threat will be isolated. Very high precipitable water will
again mean efficient rain production which along with very slow
storm motion will provide an isolated flooding threat.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Cold frontal boundary will be moving east of the CWA Saturday
morning bringing an end to any organized shower and thunderstorm
activity. Lingering cool cyclonic flow aloft may allow a few pop
up showers during the remainder of the day, especially in the
mountains. A chillier than normal night is expected Saturday
night. Fair and gradually warmer weather is then expected Sunday
through Tuesday. Thereafter it`s possible that high heat and
humidity will build mid next week but confidence is low at this
time.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Short Term...VFR will prevail through Saturday. RKD may see a
brief period of IFR fog overnight tonight but elsewhere the
lowering dewpoints will limit fog formation. Chance of
thunderstorms move into LEB and HIE on Friday evening.

Long Term...VFR Saturday with areas of MVFR ceilings in the
mountains. VFR Sunday through Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...Winds/seas remain below SCA levels today into Friday.
May see a brief period of borderlines SCA conds Friday afternoon.

Long Term...SCA`s may be needed Saturday afternoon into Sunday
in cold air advection in the wake of a cold front.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Hanes
SHORT TERM...Curtis
LONG TERM...Ekster




000
FXUS61 KCAR 010120
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
920 PM EDT THU JUN 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak high pressure will build over the region tonight then move
east on Friday. A warm front will cross the area Friday night. A
cold front will cross the region Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
9:20 PM Update...Diurnal Cu has rapidly dissipated across the CWA
early this evening. There have been some hints at fog along the
parts of the coast based mainly on web cam images and the limited
coastal observations. Have added some patchy fog along the coast.
Otherwise, the ongoing forecast is in fine shape with only some
very minor tweaks based on the 9 pm observations.

Previous discussion...
Skies will clear this evening as a weak upper ridge builds in
from the west. Tonight will then be clear with light winds. Some
patchy fog is possible in a few low lying areas, especially where
the ground has been moistened from rain. Friday will then be sunny
and very warm as surface high pressure slides to our south and the
upper level ridge slowly moves to our east. A southerly breeze
will increase in the afternoon as a new trough of low pressure
approaches from the west and clouds will begin to increase from
the west very late in the afternoon. Some showers may stray into
far western areas at the end of the day.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
An occluded front will cross the region Friday night through early
Saturday with showers and thunderstorms. A secondary cold front
will cross the region Saturday afternoon while an upper level low
approaches northwest areas. Temperatures aloft will cool Saturday
afternoon along with steepening mid level lapse rates which will
increase instability. An upper level disturbance rotating around
the upper low will cross the region during the afternoon along
with the surface cold front. Any diurnal heating will also
increase afternoon instability and thunderstorm potential. Strong
to possibly severe thunderstorms could occur across the region
Saturday afternoon into the evening. The upper low will then track
north of Maine Saturday night, keeping mostly cloudy skies along
with a chance of showers across northern areas. Generally expect
partly cloudy skies Downeast Saturday night. The upper low will
exit across the maritimes Sunday, with a surface trof crossing
the region. Expect partly/mostly cloudy skies across the north
and mountains Sunday with isolated to scattered showers.
Partly/mostly sunny skies are expected Downeast Sunday.
Temperatures are expected to be at near normal levels Saturday.
Near normal, to slightly below normal, level temperatures are
expected Sunday.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of right now, it looks like most of the area should have a
decent Independence Day on Monday as ridging builds in from the
west and heights rise. There are some hints of potential shower or
thunderstorm activity up north on a few recent model runs, but
kept POPs under 25 percent for the most part. While neither the
ECMWF or the GFS have any significant weather features affecting
the state through Day 8, they both take very different solutions.
The ECMWF is decidedly the `wetter` solution, with a couple
upper-level shortwaves pushing disturbances and showers through
the CWA. The GFS, on the other hand, is much drier courtesy of a
stronger and more durable upper ridge. For now, mostly kept POPs
under 25 or 30 percent until the models can hopefully come into
better agreement.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR conditions are expected across the area tonight
and Friday. The only possible exception may be some patchy fog in
some spots before dawn on Friday.

SHORT TERM: MVFR to LIFR conditions are expected across the
region Friday night into early Saturday with showers and
thunderstorms. Occasional MVFR to LIFR conditions with showers
and thunderstorms are expected Saturday afternoon. Occasional MVFR
conditions are possible across northern areas Saturday night with
VFR conditions across the remainder of the forecast area.
Generally expect VFR conditions across the region Sunday into
Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds and seas are expected to be below SCA through
Friday. A southerly breeze will increase Friday afternoon and a
few gusts may reach 15 to 20 kt late in the day.

SHORT TERM: Winds/seas are expected to remain below small craft
advisory levels Friday night into Sunday. Visibilities will be
reduced in fog Friday night into Saturday night. Showers and
thunderstorms are also expected Friday night, with still a chance
of showers Saturday.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

Near Term...Bloomer/CB
Short Term...Norcross
Long Term...Kredensor
Aviation...Bloomer/CB/Norcross
Marine...Bloomer/CB/Norcross




000
FXUS61 KGYX 302256 AAA
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Gray ME
656 PM EDT THU JUN 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will move over the region tonight and be followed by
an approaching cold front on Friday. This front will cross the
region Friday night, bringing scattered showers and
thunderstorms Friday afternoon and night. High pressure will
build in from the west Saturday through Tuesday, bringing fair
and gradually warming conditions.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
7 PM Update...
After a brief fall dew points will stay steady or increase into
the 50s overnight...this is especially true over southern
sections. Across the north we will not see appreciable increases
in dps until tomorrow mid morning...but temperatures will be lower
than to the south. This may be enough for some patchy fog and
this was added to the forecast. The forecast was adjusted for
nocturnal and diurnal temperature and dew point temperature
curves.



Previous discussion...
Scattered cumulus will decrease in coverage across the region
tonight as high pressure moves in. Dewpoints have been steadily
dropping as dry air moves in behind yesterdays cold front with
most of New Hampshire now in the upper 40s.... with overnight
temperatures only dropping to the 50s this should limit fog
formation inland. Along the coast winds will slowly turn onshore
overnight...pushing some fog into Rockland and the midcoast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Friday will start off sunny with southerly flow developing ahead
of an approaching low. A short wave and surface low will dive
southwards out of Canada on Friday pushing another cold front
through the region. High dewpoints will again move in ahead of
the front making for a sticky afternoon. Moderate CAPE values
ahead of the front may result in thunderstorms...especially in the
CT river valley where the front will arrive closer to maximum
heating. While the shear is sufficient for severe
thunderstorms... the cloud cover may limit surface heating so any
severe threat will be isolated. Very high precipitable water will
again mean efficient rain production which along with very slow
storm motion will provide an isolated flooding threat.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Cold frontal boundary will be moving east of the CWA Saturday
morning bringing an end to any organized shower and thunderstorm
activity. Lingering cool cyclonic flow aloft may allow a few pop
up showers during the remainder of the day, especially in the
mountains. A chillier than normal night is expected Saturday
night. Fair and gradually warmer weather is then expected Sunday
through Tuesday. Thereafter it`s possible that high heat and
humidity will build mid next week but confidence is low at this
time.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Short Term...VFR will prevail through Saturday. RKD may see a
brief period of IFR fog overnight tonight but elsewhere the
lowering dewpoints will limit fog formation. Chance of
thunderstorms move into LEB and HIE on Friday evening.

Long Term...VFR Saturday with areas of MVFR ceilings in the
mountains. VFR Sunday through Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...Winds/seas remain below SCA levels today into Friday.
May see a brief period of borderlines SCA conds Friday afternoon.

Long Term...SCA`s may be needed Saturday afternoon into Sunday
in cold air advection in the wake of a cold front.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Hanes
SHORT TERM...Curtis
LONG TERM...Ekster




000
FXUS61 KGYX 302256 AAA
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Gray ME
656 PM EDT THU JUN 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will move over the region tonight and be followed by
an approaching cold front on Friday. This front will cross the
region Friday night, bringing scattered showers and
thunderstorms Friday afternoon and night. High pressure will
build in from the west Saturday through Tuesday, bringing fair
and gradually warming conditions.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
7 PM Update...
After a brief fall dew points will stay steady or increase into
the 50s overnight...this is especially true over southern
sections. Across the north we will not see appreciable increases
in dps until tomorrow mid morning...but temperatures will be lower
than to the south. This may be enough for some patchy fog and
this was added to the forecast. The forecast was adjusted for
nocturnal and diurnal temperature and dew point temperature
curves.



Previous discussion...
Scattered cumulus will decrease in coverage across the region
tonight as high pressure moves in. Dewpoints have been steadily
dropping as dry air moves in behind yesterdays cold front with
most of New Hampshire now in the upper 40s.... with overnight
temperatures only dropping to the 50s this should limit fog
formation inland. Along the coast winds will slowly turn onshore
overnight...pushing some fog into Rockland and the midcoast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Friday will start off sunny with southerly flow developing ahead
of an approaching low. A short wave and surface low will dive
southwards out of Canada on Friday pushing another cold front
through the region. High dewpoints will again move in ahead of
the front making for a sticky afternoon. Moderate CAPE values
ahead of the front may result in thunderstorms...especially in the
CT river valley where the front will arrive closer to maximum
heating. While the shear is sufficient for severe
thunderstorms... the cloud cover may limit surface heating so any
severe threat will be isolated. Very high precipitable water will
again mean efficient rain production which along with very slow
storm motion will provide an isolated flooding threat.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Cold frontal boundary will be moving east of the CWA Saturday
morning bringing an end to any organized shower and thunderstorm
activity. Lingering cool cyclonic flow aloft may allow a few pop
up showers during the remainder of the day, especially in the
mountains. A chillier than normal night is expected Saturday
night. Fair and gradually warmer weather is then expected Sunday
through Tuesday. Thereafter it`s possible that high heat and
humidity will build mid next week but confidence is low at this
time.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Short Term...VFR will prevail through Saturday. RKD may see a
brief period of IFR fog overnight tonight but elsewhere the
lowering dewpoints will limit fog formation. Chance of
thunderstorms move into LEB and HIE on Friday evening.

Long Term...VFR Saturday with areas of MVFR ceilings in the
mountains. VFR Sunday through Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...Winds/seas remain below SCA levels today into Friday.
May see a brief period of borderlines SCA conds Friday afternoon.

Long Term...SCA`s may be needed Saturday afternoon into Sunday
in cold air advection in the wake of a cold front.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Hanes
SHORT TERM...Curtis
LONG TERM...Ekster




000
FXUS61 KCAR 302230
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
630 PM EDT THU JUN 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak high pressure will build over the region tonight then move
east on Friday. A warm front will cross the area Friday night. A
cold front will cross the region Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
6:30 PM Update...Diurnal Cu is rapidly dissipating across the CWA
early this evening with the sky to become clear tonight. The
combination of a clear sky and light wind will make for a
comfortable night with lows mostly in the 50s. A few of the normal
cold spots in the nw valleys will likely drop into the 40s. The
only change at this time was to lower the overnight lows in the nw
valleys. Otherwise, the ongoing forecast is in fine shape.

Previous discussion...
Skies will clear this evening as a weak upper ridge builds in
from the west. Tonight will then be clear with light winds. Some
patchy fog is possible in a few low lying areas, especially where
the ground has been moistened from rain. Friday will then be sunny
and very warm as surface high pressure slides to our south and the
upper level ridge slowly moves to our east. A southerly breeze
will increase in the afternoon as a new trough of low pressure
approaches from the west and clouds will begin to increase from
the west very late in the afternoon. Some showers may stray into
far western areas at the end of the day.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
An occluded front will cross the region Friday night through early
Saturday with showers and thunderstorms. A secondary cold front
will cross the region Saturday afternoon while an upper level low
approaches northwest areas. Temperatures aloft will cool Saturday
afternoon along with steepening mid level lapse rates which will
increase instability. An upper level disturbance rotating around
the upper low will cross the region during the afternoon along
with the surface cold front. Any diurnal heating will also
increase afternoon instability and thunderstorm potential. Strong
to possibly severe thunderstorms could occur across the region
Saturday afternoon into the evening. The upper low will then track
north of Maine Saturday night, keeping mostly cloudy skies along
with a chance of showers across northern areas. Generally expect
partly cloudy skies Downeast Saturday night. The upper low will
exit across the maritimes Sunday, with a surface trof crossing
the region. Expect partly/mostly cloudy skies across the north
and mountains Sunday with isolated to scattered showers.
Partly/mostly sunny skies are expected Downeast Sunday.
Temperatures are expected to be at near normal levels Saturday.
Near normal, to slightly below normal, level temperatures are
expected Sunday.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of right now, it looks like most of the area should have a
decent Independence Day on Monday as ridging builds in from the
west and heights rise. There are some hints of potential shower or
thunderstorm activity up north on a few recent model runs, but
kept POPs under 25 percent for the most part. While neither the
ECMWF or the GFS have any significant weather features affecting
the state through Day 8, they both take very different solutions.
The ECMWF is decidedly the `wetter` solution, with a couple
upper-level shortwaves pushing disturbances and showers through
the CWA. The GFS, on the other hand, is much drier courtesy of a
stronger and more durable upper ridge. For now, mostly kept POPs
under 25 or 30 percent until the models can hopefully come into
better agreement.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR conditions are expected across the area tonight
and Friday. The only possible exception may be some patchy fog in
some spots before dawn on Friday.

SHORT TERM: MVFR to LIFR conditions are expected across the
region Friday night into early Saturday with showers and
thunderstorms. Occasional MVFR to LIFR conditions with showers
and thunderstorms are expected Saturday afternoon. Occasional MVFR
conditions are possible across northern areas Saturday night with
VFR conditions across the remainder of the forecast area.
Generally expect VFR conditions across the region Sunday into
Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds and seas are expected to be below SCA through
Friday. A southerly breeze will increase Friday afternoon and a
few gusts may reach 15 to 20 kt late in the day.

SHORT TERM: Winds/seas are expected to remain below small craft
advisory levels Friday night into Sunday. Visibilities will be
reduced in fog Friday night into Saturday night. Showers and
thunderstorms are also expected Friday night, with still a chance
of showers Saturday.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

Near Term...Bloomer/CB
Short Term...Norcross
Long Term...Kredensor
Aviation...Bloomer/CB/Norcross
Marine...Bloomer/CB/Norcross




000
FXUS61 KCAR 302041
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
441 PM EDT THU JUN 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak high pressure will build over the region tonight then move
east on Friday. A warm front will cross the area Friday night. A
cold front will cross the region Saturday.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Skies will clear this evening as a weak upper ridge builds in
from the west. Tonight will then be clear with light winds. Some
patchy fog is possible in a few low lying areas, especially where
the ground has been moistened from rain. Friday will then be sunny
and very warm as surface high pressure slides to our south and the
upper level ridge slowly moves to our east. A southerly breeze
will increase in the afternoon as a new trough of low pressure
approaches from the west and clouds will begin to increase from
the west very late in the afternoon. Some showers may stray into
far western areas at the end of the day.
&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
An occluded front will cross the region Friday night through early
Saturday with showers and thunderstorms. A secondary cold front
will cross the region Saturday afternoon while an upper level low
approaches northwest areas. Temperatures aloft will cool Saturday
afternoon along with steepening mid level lapse rates which will
increase instability. An upper level disturbance rotating around
the upper low will cross the region during the afternoon along
with the surface cold front. Any diurnal heating will also
increase afternoon instability and thunderstorm potential. Strong
to possibly severe thunderstorms could occur across the region
Saturday afternoon into the evening. The upper low will then track
north of Maine Saturday night, keeping mostly cloudy skies along
with a chance of showers across northern areas. Generally expect
partly cloudy skies Downeast Saturday night. The upper low will
exit across the maritimes Sunday, with a surface trof crossing
the region. Expect partly/mostly cloudy skies across the north
and mountains Sunday with isolated to scattered showers.
Partly/mostly sunny skies are expected Downeast Sunday.
Temperatures are expected to be at near normal levels Saturday.
Near normal, to slightly below normal, level temperatures are
expected Sunday.
&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of right now, it looks like most of the area should have a
decent Independence Day on Monday as ridging builds in from the
west and heights rise. There are some hints of potential shower or
thunderstorm activity up north on a few recent model runs, but
kept POPs under 25 percent for the most part. While neither the
ECMWF or the GFS have any significant weather features affecting
the state through Day 8, they both take very different solutions.
The ECMWF is decidedly the `wetter` solution, with a couple
upper-level shortwaves pushing disturbances and showers through
the CWA. The GFS, on the other hand, is much drier courtesy of a
stronger and more durable upper ridge. For now, mostly kept POPs
under 25 or 30 percent until the models can hopefully come into
better agreement.
&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR conditions are expected across the area tonight
and Friday. The only possible exception may be some patchy fog in
some spots before dawn on Friday.

SHORT TERM: MVFR to LIFR conditions are expected across the
region Friday night into early Saturday with showers and
thunderstorms. Occasional MVFR to LIFR conditions with showers
and thunderstorms are expected Saturday afternoon. Occasional MVFR
conditions are possible across northern areas Saturday night with
VFR conditions across the remainder of the forecast area.
Generally expect VFR conditions across the region Sunday into
Monday.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds and seas are expected to be below SCA through
Friday. A southerly breeze will increase Friday afternoon and a
few gusts may reach 15 to 20 kt late in the day.

SHORT TERM: Winds/seas are expected to remain below small craft
advisory levels Friday night into Sunday. Visibilities will be
reduced in fog Friday night into Saturday night. Showers and
thunderstorms are also expected Friday night, with still a chance
of showers Saturday.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

Near Term...Bloomer
Short Term...Norcross
Long Term...Kredensor
Aviation...Bloomer/Norcross
Marine...Bloomer/Norcross




000
FXUS61 KGYX 301908
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
308 PM EDT THU JUN 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will move over the region tonight and be followed by
an approaching cold front on Friday. This front will cross the
region Friday night, bringing scattered showers and
thunderstorms Friday afternoon and night. High pressure will
build in from the west Saturday through Tuesday, bringing fair
and gradually warming conditions.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Scattered cumulus will decrease in coverage across the region
tonight as high pressure moves in. Dewpoints have been steadily
dropping as dry air moves in behind yesterdays cold front with
most of New Hampshire now in the upper 40s.... with overnight
temperatures only dropping to the 50s this should limit fog
formation inland. Along the coast winds will slowly turn onshore
overnight...pushing some fog into Rockland and the midcoast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Friday will start off sunny with southerly flow developing ahead
of an approaching low. A short wave and surface low will dive
southwards out of Canada on Friday pushing another cold front
through the region. High dewpoints will again move in ahead of
the front making for a sticky afternoon. Moderate CAPE values
ahead of the front may result in thunderstorms...especially in the
CT river valley where the front will arrive closer to maximum
heating. While the shear is sufficient for severe
thunderstorms... the cloud cover may limit surface heating so any
severe threat will be isolated. Very high precipitable water will
again mean efficient rain production which along with very slow
storm motion will provide an isolated flooding threat.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Cold frontal boundary will be moving east of the CWA Saturday
morning bringing an end to any organized shower and thunderstorm
activity. Lingering cool cyclonic flow aloft may allow a few pop
up showers during the remainder of the day, especially in the
mountains. A chillier than normal night is expected Saturday
night. Fair and gradually warmer weather is then expected Sunday
through Tuesday. Thereafter it`s possible that high heat and
humidity will build mid next week but confidence is low at this
time.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Short Term...VFR will prevail through Saturday. RKD may see a
brief period of IFR fog overnight tonight but elsewhere the
lowering dewpoints will limit fog formation. Chance of
thunderstorms move into LEB and HIE on Friday evening.

Long Term...VFR Saturday with areas of MVFR ceilings in the
mountains. VFR Sunday through Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...Winds/seas remain below SCA levels today into Friday.
May see a brief period of borderlines SCA conds Friday afternoon.

Long Term...SCA`s may be needed Saturday afternoon into Sunday
in cold air advection in the wake of a cold front.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Curtis
SHORT TERM...Curtis
LONG TERM...Ekster




000
FXUS61 KGYX 301908
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
308 PM EDT THU JUN 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will move over the region tonight and be followed by
an approaching cold front on Friday. This front will cross the
region Friday night, bringing scattered showers and
thunderstorms Friday afternoon and night. High pressure will
build in from the west Saturday through Tuesday, bringing fair
and gradually warming conditions.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Scattered cumulus will decrease in coverage across the region
tonight as high pressure moves in. Dewpoints have been steadily
dropping as dry air moves in behind yesterdays cold front with
most of New Hampshire now in the upper 40s.... with overnight
temperatures only dropping to the 50s this should limit fog
formation inland. Along the coast winds will slowly turn onshore
overnight...pushing some fog into Rockland and the midcoast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Friday will start off sunny with southerly flow developing ahead
of an approaching low. A short wave and surface low will dive
southwards out of Canada on Friday pushing another cold front
through the region. High dewpoints will again move in ahead of
the front making for a sticky afternoon. Moderate CAPE values
ahead of the front may result in thunderstorms...especially in the
CT river valley where the front will arrive closer to maximum
heating. While the shear is sufficient for severe
thunderstorms... the cloud cover may limit surface heating so any
severe threat will be isolated. Very high precipitable water will
again mean efficient rain production which along with very slow
storm motion will provide an isolated flooding threat.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Cold frontal boundary will be moving east of the CWA Saturday
morning bringing an end to any organized shower and thunderstorm
activity. Lingering cool cyclonic flow aloft may allow a few pop
up showers during the remainder of the day, especially in the
mountains. A chillier than normal night is expected Saturday
night. Fair and gradually warmer weather is then expected Sunday
through Tuesday. Thereafter it`s possible that high heat and
humidity will build mid next week but confidence is low at this
time.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Short Term...VFR will prevail through Saturday. RKD may see a
brief period of IFR fog overnight tonight but elsewhere the
lowering dewpoints will limit fog formation. Chance of
thunderstorms move into LEB and HIE on Friday evening.

Long Term...VFR Saturday with areas of MVFR ceilings in the
mountains. VFR Sunday through Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...Winds/seas remain below SCA levels today into Friday.
May see a brief period of borderlines SCA conds Friday afternoon.

Long Term...SCA`s may be needed Saturday afternoon into Sunday
in cold air advection in the wake of a cold front.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Curtis
SHORT TERM...Curtis
LONG TERM...Ekster




000
FXUS61 KCAR 301524
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
1124 AM EDT THU JUN 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak high pressure will approach the region today then move east
Friday. A warm front will cross the region friday night, then a
cold front Saturday afternoon.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
11:30 AM Upate...Modified cloud cover a bit to go mostly cloudy in
eastern areas and partly cloudy to clear in the west. Also, mostly
clear over the water. Otherwise, no major changes this hour.

Orgnl Disc: Will cont with areas of fairly shallow fog across the
FA for the next 2 to 3 hrs with vsbys fluctuating ovr the TAF
sites, then transition to patchy fog for the remainder of the erly
morn with the next update. Otherwise, skies should become ptly to
msly sunny later this morn into this aftn. Whats left of an upper
trof lifting ENE from far Nrn ptns of the FA this morn and midday
could result in isold low top shwrs msly across the N hlf of the
FA from midday into erly aftn, before stronger subsidence
dissipates any shwrs and brings clrg late this aftn into this eve.
Temps will intially be a little slow to rise erly to mid morn with
low cldnss and fog slowly lifting and dissipating, but then should
rise to highs at or slightly abv seasonal norms.

Clear skies tngt and lgt winds may result in very shallow patchy
fog late tngt into the erly morn as left ovr sfc-BL moisture
condenses with radiational cooling msly across broad rvr vly
lctns. Any fog erly Fri morn should then lift and dissipate
within an hr aft sunset. Ovrngt low temps will be near seasonal
norms.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Friday will be warmer with highs reaching the low to mid 80s
except near the coast where the onshore flow will limit highs to
the upper 60s to lower 70s. After an upper ridge crests over the
area Friday morning and an upper trough approaches, there`s an
outside shot for some convection to fire later in the afternoon
with moisture being a limiting factor. On Friday night, a vigorous
upper trough will approach with a surface warm front. With the
cooling aloft, this warm front may feature some elevated
convection later Friday night into early Saturday morning with
locally heavy showers. Lows will only drop to the lower 60s except
along the coast where mid to upper 50s are anticipated.  There is
some uncertainty on how quickly the front will occlude Saturday
morning as it crosses the forecast area. Will make the assumption
that much of the forecast will be in a warm sector until later in
the afternoon when a strong cold front sweeps across the area.
Following this assumption, the cooling aloft with the upper low
could produce some impressive mid level lapse rates and CAPE.
Combined with the potential bulk shear in the southern half of the
forecast area, severe storms have to be considered. Regardless of
how Saturday plays out, colder and drier air will be advecting
into the region Saturday night with lows in the 50s and breezy
conditions.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Sunday will be a cool and windy day with much less humidity. Highs
will be in the upper 60s north and mid 70s towards Bangor and Down
East with an offshore flow. Light showers and clouds will be
possible north of Houlton and Millinocket with an upper low
spinning north of the state in Quebec. Winds may gust to over 30
mph on Sunday with afternoon mixing. The winds continue to be the
story on Monday with slightly warmer temperatures and dry
conditions. Gusts may again reach 30 mph in the afternoon.  Have
maintained dry conditions in the forecast into Wednesday with
moderating temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR to VLIFR conditions in areas of fog erly this morn
across the TAF sites will transition to MVFR mid to late morn as
both clgs and vsbys lift, then to VFR by aftn. Msly VFR tonight
with brief MVFR or IFR vsbys at low lying rvr vly TAF sites late
tngt.

SHORT TERM: Conditions will be VFR Friday into Friday evening at
all terminals. A warm front will cross Friday night into early
Saturday morning. This front will draw IFR to LIFR cigs and vis
north from the Gulf of Maine to reach all terminals by later in
the night. Embedded thunderstorms will be possible...mostly after
midnight into daybreak. On Saturday...conditions will begin IFR
with the low cigs and vis...but improve to VFR by late morning.
Severe thunderstorms are a threat Saturday afternoon as a cold
front sweeps across the area. Otherwise...it will be VFR Saturday
afternoon into Monday with the exception of some MVFR cigs north
of HUL later Saturday night into Sunday morning.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: No hdlns in the near term with 7-8 sec pd wind-swell
wvs with hts of 2 to 4 ft ovr the outer waters and arnd 2 ft alg
the near shore. marine ST and fog should lift late this morn.
Otherwise, went with about 85 to 90 percent of WW3 for fcst wv
hts for this fcst update for the near term.

SHORT TERM: Fog will return over the waters Friday and continue
into Saturday night. In exchange for fog, winds and seas will rise
Sunday with a very good possibility of needing a Small Craft
Advisory Sunday and Sunday night. With the influx of holiday
weekend recreational boaters, this could be a significant issue.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

Near Term...VJN/MCB
Short Term...MCW
Long Term...MCW
Aviation...VJN/MCW
Marine...VJN/MCW




000
FXUS61 KCAR 301524
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
1124 AM EDT THU JUN 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak high pressure will approach the region today then move east
Friday. A warm front will cross the region friday night, then a
cold front Saturday afternoon.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
11:30 AM Upate...Modified cloud cover a bit to go mostly cloudy in
eastern areas and partly cloudy to clear in the west. Also, mostly
clear over the water. Otherwise, no major changes this hour.

Orgnl Disc: Will cont with areas of fairly shallow fog across the
FA for the next 2 to 3 hrs with vsbys fluctuating ovr the TAF
sites, then transition to patchy fog for the remainder of the erly
morn with the next update. Otherwise, skies should become ptly to
msly sunny later this morn into this aftn. Whats left of an upper
trof lifting ENE from far Nrn ptns of the FA this morn and midday
could result in isold low top shwrs msly across the N hlf of the
FA from midday into erly aftn, before stronger subsidence
dissipates any shwrs and brings clrg late this aftn into this eve.
Temps will intially be a little slow to rise erly to mid morn with
low cldnss and fog slowly lifting and dissipating, but then should
rise to highs at or slightly abv seasonal norms.

Clear skies tngt and lgt winds may result in very shallow patchy
fog late tngt into the erly morn as left ovr sfc-BL moisture
condenses with radiational cooling msly across broad rvr vly
lctns. Any fog erly Fri morn should then lift and dissipate
within an hr aft sunset. Ovrngt low temps will be near seasonal
norms.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Friday will be warmer with highs reaching the low to mid 80s
except near the coast where the onshore flow will limit highs to
the upper 60s to lower 70s. After an upper ridge crests over the
area Friday morning and an upper trough approaches, there`s an
outside shot for some convection to fire later in the afternoon
with moisture being a limiting factor. On Friday night, a vigorous
upper trough will approach with a surface warm front. With the
cooling aloft, this warm front may feature some elevated
convection later Friday night into early Saturday morning with
locally heavy showers. Lows will only drop to the lower 60s except
along the coast where mid to upper 50s are anticipated.  There is
some uncertainty on how quickly the front will occlude Saturday
morning as it crosses the forecast area. Will make the assumption
that much of the forecast will be in a warm sector until later in
the afternoon when a strong cold front sweeps across the area.
Following this assumption, the cooling aloft with the upper low
could produce some impressive mid level lapse rates and CAPE.
Combined with the potential bulk shear in the southern half of the
forecast area, severe storms have to be considered. Regardless of
how Saturday plays out, colder and drier air will be advecting
into the region Saturday night with lows in the 50s and breezy
conditions.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Sunday will be a cool and windy day with much less humidity. Highs
will be in the upper 60s north and mid 70s towards Bangor and Down
East with an offshore flow. Light showers and clouds will be
possible north of Houlton and Millinocket with an upper low
spinning north of the state in Quebec. Winds may gust to over 30
mph on Sunday with afternoon mixing. The winds continue to be the
story on Monday with slightly warmer temperatures and dry
conditions. Gusts may again reach 30 mph in the afternoon.  Have
maintained dry conditions in the forecast into Wednesday with
moderating temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR to VLIFR conditions in areas of fog erly this morn
across the TAF sites will transition to MVFR mid to late morn as
both clgs and vsbys lift, then to VFR by aftn. Msly VFR tonight
with brief MVFR or IFR vsbys at low lying rvr vly TAF sites late
tngt.

SHORT TERM: Conditions will be VFR Friday into Friday evening at
all terminals. A warm front will cross Friday night into early
Saturday morning. This front will draw IFR to LIFR cigs and vis
north from the Gulf of Maine to reach all terminals by later in
the night. Embedded thunderstorms will be possible...mostly after
midnight into daybreak. On Saturday...conditions will begin IFR
with the low cigs and vis...but improve to VFR by late morning.
Severe thunderstorms are a threat Saturday afternoon as a cold
front sweeps across the area. Otherwise...it will be VFR Saturday
afternoon into Monday with the exception of some MVFR cigs north
of HUL later Saturday night into Sunday morning.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: No hdlns in the near term with 7-8 sec pd wind-swell
wvs with hts of 2 to 4 ft ovr the outer waters and arnd 2 ft alg
the near shore. marine ST and fog should lift late this morn.
Otherwise, went with about 85 to 90 percent of WW3 for fcst wv
hts for this fcst update for the near term.

SHORT TERM: Fog will return over the waters Friday and continue
into Saturday night. In exchange for fog, winds and seas will rise
Sunday with a very good possibility of needing a Small Craft
Advisory Sunday and Sunday night. With the influx of holiday
weekend recreational boaters, this could be a significant issue.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

Near Term...VJN/MCB
Short Term...MCW
Long Term...MCW
Aviation...VJN/MCW
Marine...VJN/MCW




000
FXUS61 KGYX 301315
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
915 AM EDT THU JUN 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build in from the west today and cross the
region tonight and Friday. A cold front will approach from the
west late Friday and will cross the region Friday night, bring
scattered showers and thunderstorms. A trough of low pressure will
linger over the area Saturday. High pressure will build in from
the west Sunday through Tuesday, bringing fair and gradually
warming conditions.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
9am update... fog has cleared out of the ct river valley. skies
will remain sunny through most of the area with just a few clouds
in the mountains.

650 AM...Fog near the coast has mostly dissipated, and valley fog
will burn off by 12-13Z. Otherwise look for sunny skies and less
humid conditions today.

Previously...Sunny and seasonably warm conditions expected for
today, that is as soon as the fog and low clouds dissipate after
sunrise. This should occur fairly quickly for the most part as the
drier air mixes down. Highs today will range from the mid to upper
70s in the mountains and at the beaches, with 80-85 everywhere
else. Will see a late sea breeze develop, so coastal zones will be
limited to around 80.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
Sfc high center passes just to our south and this should make for
a decent radiation cooling night, at least as good as it gets
this time of year, with short night and high sun angle. Lows will
range from around 50 in the sheltered mountain spots, to the upper
50s along the coast and in southern NH. Valley fog is a good bet
as well, and could see some fog moving in along the mid coast, too.

Friday morning will start off sunny with just some scattered
cirrus, but will see cumulus begin to develop as low level
moisture increases and temps warm into the low to mid 80s. This
should produce enough instability to produce some sct showers and
t-storms, especially over interior and the mountains of ME, but
some uncertainty exists if there is enough of a trigger to get
things going ahead of the dynamics aloft, so pops were limited to
chance thru the afternoon in these areas. The best chance for
showers and storms will occur with best dynamics aloft on Friday
night.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Cold front will swing in from the west Friday night with showers
and thunderstorms likely through the evening hours. Should be a
quick hitter with associated precip pushing east of the forecast
area shortly after midnight. Expect partial clearing downwind of
the mountains after midnight as downsloping kicks in behind the
front. Low temps will range from the mid 50s to lower 60s.

Deep closed low will settle into the northeast for Saturday. Expect
winds to pick up during the day as 850 gradient tightens
significantly during the afternoon. Upslope flow and low level
moisture will keep skies mostly cloudy in the mountains where a
few showers will be possible. Should see a mix of sun and clouds
downwind of the mountains. High temps will range from the upper
60s to mid 70s north and mid 70s to near 80 south.

Skies will remain mostly cloudy Saturday night in northern zones
with variable clouds elsewhere. Lows overnight will generally
range through the 50s.

Another breezy day on tap for Sunday as persistent westerly winds
buffet the region. Should see more in the way of sunshine in
northern zones as upper low pulls away and mostly sunny skies
elsewhere. Expect high temps similar to Saturdays.

High pressure builds in from the west Sunday night and Monday. Will
see less in the way of wind but still looking for breezy conditions.
Expect mostly clear skies through the period with highs on Monday
reaching the mid 70s to mid 80s.

Fair weather and moderating temps will continue for both Tuesday and
Wednesday as high pressure remains in control over the northeast.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Short Term...Dry air aloft trying to mix down in spots where the
fog is occuring, mainly near the coast. This is creating varying
conditions,. and this will likely continue thru sunrise. Should
see a quick improvement to VFR at all but KRKD. At KLEB/KHIE,
should start to see the valley fog develop in the 06-08Z time
range, and that will break around 12Z. KCON may see a brief period
of fog around sunrise.

VFR expected the rest of today through Friday afternoon. Outside chance
of TSRA at interior NH terminals Friday afternoon.

Long Term...areas of MVFR/IFR ceilings/vsby Friday night. VFR
Saturday with areas of MVFR ceilings in the mountains. VFR Sunday
and Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...Winds/seas remain below SCA levels today into Friday.
May see a brief period of borderlines SCA conds Friday afternoon.

Long Term...SCA`s may be needed Saturday night and Sunday.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...Curtis
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...




000
FXUS61 KCAR 301311
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
911 AM EDT THU JUN 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak high pressure will approach the region today then move east
Friday. A warm front will cross the region friday night, then a
cold front Saturday afternoon.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
9 AM Update...Raised temperatures Downeast through the morning and
lowered temps across the north with sunshine Downeast and clouds
over the north keeping the north much cooler. Otherwise, no major
changes this hour.

Orgnl Disc: Will cont with areas of fairly shallow fog across the
FA for the next 2 to 3 hrs with vsbys fluctuating ovr the TAF
sites, then transition to patchy fog for the remainder of the erly
morn with the next update. Otherwise, skies should become ptly to
msly sunny later this morn into this aftn. Whats left of an upper
trof lifting ENE from far Nrn ptns of the FA this morn and midday
could result in isold low top shwrs msly across the N hlf of the
FA from midday into erly aftn, before stronger subsidence
dissipates any shwrs and brings clrg late this aftn into this eve.
Temps will intially be a little slow to rise erly to mid morn with
low cldnss and fog slowly lifting and dissipating, but then should
rise to highs at or slightly abv seasonal norms.

Clear skies tngt and lgt winds may result in very shallow patchy
fog late tngt into the erly morn as left ovr sfc-BL moisture
condenses with radiational cooling msly across broad rvr vly
lctns. Any fog erly Fri morn should then lift and dissipate
within an hr aft sunset. Ovrngt low temps will be near seasonal
norms.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Friday will be warmer with highs reaching the low to mid 80s
except near the coast where the onshore flow will limit highs to
the upper 60s to lower 70s. After an upper ridge crests over the
area Friday morning and an upper trough approaches, there`s an
outside shot for some convection to fire later in the afternoon
with moisture being a limiting factor. On Friday night, a vigorous
upper trough will approach with a surface warm front. With the
cooling aloft, this warm front may feature some elevated
convection later Friday night into early Saturday morning with
locally heavy showers. Lows will only drop to the lower 60s except
along the coast where mid to upper 50s are anticipated.  There is
some uncertainty on how quickly the front will occlude Saturday
morning as it crosses the forecast area. Will make the assumption
that much of the forecast will be in a warm sector until later in
the afternoon when a strong cold front sweeps across the area.
Following this assumption, the cooling aloft with the upper low
could produce some impressive mid level lapse rates and CAPE.
Combined with the potential bulk shear in the southern half of the
forecast area, severe storms have to be considered. Regardless of
how Saturday plays out, colder and drier air will be advecting
into the region Saturday night with lows in the 50s and breezy
conditions.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Sunday will be a cool and windy day with much less humidity. Highs
will be in the upper 60s north and mid 70s towards Bangor and Down
East with an offshore flow. Light showers and clouds will be
possible north of Houlton and Millinocket with an upper low
spinning north of the state in Quebec. Winds may gust to over 30
mph on Sunday with afternoon mixing. The winds continue to be the
story on Monday with slightly warmer temperatures and dry
conditions. Gusts may again reach 30 mph in the afternoon.  Have
maintained dry conditions in the forecast into Wednesday with
moderating temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR to VLIFR conditions in areas of fog erly this morn
across the TAF sites will transition to MVFR mid to late morn as
both clgs and vsbys lift, then to VFR by aftn. Msly VFR tonight
with brief MVFR or IFR vsbys at low lying rvr vly TAF sites late
tngt.

SHORT TERM: Conditions will be VFR Friday into Friday evening at
all terminals. A warm front will cross Friday night into early
Saturday morning. This front will draw IFR to LIFR cigs and vis
north from the Gulf of Maine to reach all terminals by later in
the night. Embedded thunderstorms will be possible...mostly after
midnight into daybreak. On Saturday...conditions will begin IFR
with the low cigs and vis...but improve to VFR by late morning.
Severe thunderstorms are a threat Saturday afternoon as a cold
front sweeps across the area. Otherwise...it will be VFR Saturday
afternoon into Monday with the exception of some MVFR cigs north
of HUL later Saturday night into Sunday morning.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: No hdlns in the near term with 7-8 sec pd wind-swell
wvs with hts of 2 to 4 ft ovr the outer waters and arnd 2 ft alg
the near shore. marine ST and fog should lift late this morn.
Otherwise, went with about 85 to 90 percent of WW3 for fcst wv
hts for this fcst update for the near term.

SHORT TERM: Fog will return over the waters Friday and continue
into Saturday night. In exchange for fog, winds and seas will rise
Sunday with a very good possibility of needing a Small Craft
Advisory Sunday and Sunday night. With the influx of holiday
weekend recreational boaters, this could be a significant issue.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

Near Term...VJN/MCB
Short Term...MCW
Long Term...MCW
Aviation...VJN/MCW
Marine...VJN/MCW




000
FXUS61 KGYX 301100
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
700 AM EDT THU JUN 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build in from the west today and cross the
region tonight and Friday. A cold front will approach from the
west late Friday and will cross the region Friday night, bring
scattered showers and thunderstorms. A trough of low pressure will
linger over the area Saturday. High pressure will build in from
the west Sunday through Tuesday, bringing fair and gradually
warming conditions.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
650 AM...Fog near the coast has mostly dissipated, and valley fog
will burn off by 12-13Z. Otherwise look for sunny skies and less
humid conditions today.

Previously...Sunny and seasonably warm conditions expected for
today, that is as soon as the fog and low clouds dissipate after
sunrise. This should occur fairly quickly for the most part as the
drier air mixes down. Highs today will range from the mid to upper
70s in the mountains and at the beaches, with 80-85 everywhere
else. Will see a late sea breeze develop, so coastal zones will be
limited to around 80.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
Sfc high center passes just to our south and this should make for
a decent radiation cooling night, at least as good as it gets
this time of year, with short night and high sun angle. Lows will
range from around 50 in the sheltered mountain spots, to the upper
50s along the coast and in southern NH. Valley fog is a good bet
as well, and could see some fog moving in along the mid coast, too.

Friday morning will start off sunny with just some scattered
cirrus, but will see cumulus begin to develop as low level
moisture increases and temps warm into the low to mid 80s. This
should produce enough instability to produce some sct showers and
t-storms, especially over interior and the mountains of ME, but
some uncertainty exists if there is enough of a trigger to get
things going ahead of the dynamics aloft, so pops were limited to
chance thru the afternoon in these areas. The best chance for
showers and storms will occur with best dynamics aloft on Friday
night.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Cold front will swing in from the west Friday night with showers
and thunderstorms likely through the evening hours. Should be a
quick hitter with associated precip pushing east of the forecast
area shortly after midnight. Expect partial clearing downwind of
the mountains after midnight as downsloping kicks in behind the
front. Low temps will range from the mid 50s to lower 60s.

Deep closed low will settle into the northeast for Saturday. Expect
winds to pick up during the day as 850 gradient tightens
significantly during the afternoon. Upslope flow and low level
moisture will keep skies mostly cloudy in the mountains where a
few showers will be possible. Should see a mix of sun and clouds
downwind of the mountains. High temps will range from the upper
60s to mid 70s north and mid 70s to near 80 south.

Skies will remain mostly cloudy Saturday night in northern zones
with variable clouds elsewhere. Lows overnight will generally
range through the 50s.

Another breezy day on tap for Sunday as persistent westerly winds
buffet the region. Should see more in the way of sunshine in
northern zones as upper low pulls away and mostly sunny skies
elsewhere. Expect high temps similar to Saturdays.

High pressure builds in from the west Sunday night and Monday. Will
see less in the way of wind but still looking for breezy conditions.
Expect mostly clear skies through the period with highs on Monday
reaching the mid 70s to mid 80s.

Fair weather and moderating temps will continue for both Tuesday and
Wednesday as high pressure remains in control over the northeast.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Short Term...Dry air aloft trying to mix down in spots where the
fog is occuring, mainly near the coast. This is creating varying
conditions,. and this will likely continue thru sunrise. Should
see a quick improvement to VFR at all but KRKD. At KLEB/KHIE,
should start to see the valley fog develop in the 06-08Z time
range, and that will break around 12Z. KCON may see a brief period
of fog around sunrise.

VFR expected the rest of today through Friday afternoon. Outside chance
of TSRA at interior NH terminals Friday afternoon.

Long Term...areas of MVFR/IFR ceilings/vsby Friday night. VFR
Saturday with areas of MVFR ceilings in the mountains. VFR Sunday
and Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...Winds/seas remain below SCA levels today into Friday.
May see a brief period of borderlines SCA conds Friday afternoon.

Long Term...SCA`s may be needed Saturday night and Sunday.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Cempa




000
FXUS61 KGYX 301100
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
700 AM EDT THU JUN 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build in from the west today and cross the
region tonight and Friday. A cold front will approach from the
west late Friday and will cross the region Friday night, bring
scattered showers and thunderstorms. A trough of low pressure will
linger over the area Saturday. High pressure will build in from
the west Sunday through Tuesday, bringing fair and gradually
warming conditions.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
650 AM...Fog near the coast has mostly dissipated, and valley fog
will burn off by 12-13Z. Otherwise look for sunny skies and less
humid conditions today.

Previously...Sunny and seasonably warm conditions expected for
today, that is as soon as the fog and low clouds dissipate after
sunrise. This should occur fairly quickly for the most part as the
drier air mixes down. Highs today will range from the mid to upper
70s in the mountains and at the beaches, with 80-85 everywhere
else. Will see a late sea breeze develop, so coastal zones will be
limited to around 80.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
Sfc high center passes just to our south and this should make for
a decent radiation cooling night, at least as good as it gets
this time of year, with short night and high sun angle. Lows will
range from around 50 in the sheltered mountain spots, to the upper
50s along the coast and in southern NH. Valley fog is a good bet
as well, and could see some fog moving in along the mid coast, too.

Friday morning will start off sunny with just some scattered
cirrus, but will see cumulus begin to develop as low level
moisture increases and temps warm into the low to mid 80s. This
should produce enough instability to produce some sct showers and
t-storms, especially over interior and the mountains of ME, but
some uncertainty exists if there is enough of a trigger to get
things going ahead of the dynamics aloft, so pops were limited to
chance thru the afternoon in these areas. The best chance for
showers and storms will occur with best dynamics aloft on Friday
night.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Cold front will swing in from the west Friday night with showers
and thunderstorms likely through the evening hours. Should be a
quick hitter with associated precip pushing east of the forecast
area shortly after midnight. Expect partial clearing downwind of
the mountains after midnight as downsloping kicks in behind the
front. Low temps will range from the mid 50s to lower 60s.

Deep closed low will settle into the northeast for Saturday. Expect
winds to pick up during the day as 850 gradient tightens
significantly during the afternoon. Upslope flow and low level
moisture will keep skies mostly cloudy in the mountains where a
few showers will be possible. Should see a mix of sun and clouds
downwind of the mountains. High temps will range from the upper
60s to mid 70s north and mid 70s to near 80 south.

Skies will remain mostly cloudy Saturday night in northern zones
with variable clouds elsewhere. Lows overnight will generally
range through the 50s.

Another breezy day on tap for Sunday as persistent westerly winds
buffet the region. Should see more in the way of sunshine in
northern zones as upper low pulls away and mostly sunny skies
elsewhere. Expect high temps similar to Saturdays.

High pressure builds in from the west Sunday night and Monday. Will
see less in the way of wind but still looking for breezy conditions.
Expect mostly clear skies through the period with highs on Monday
reaching the mid 70s to mid 80s.

Fair weather and moderating temps will continue for both Tuesday and
Wednesday as high pressure remains in control over the northeast.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Short Term...Dry air aloft trying to mix down in spots where the
fog is occuring, mainly near the coast. This is creating varying
conditions,. and this will likely continue thru sunrise. Should
see a quick improvement to VFR at all but KRKD. At KLEB/KHIE,
should start to see the valley fog develop in the 06-08Z time
range, and that will break around 12Z. KCON may see a brief period
of fog around sunrise.

VFR expected the rest of today through Friday afternoon. Outside chance
of TSRA at interior NH terminals Friday afternoon.

Long Term...areas of MVFR/IFR ceilings/vsby Friday night. VFR
Saturday with areas of MVFR ceilings in the mountains. VFR Sunday
and Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...Winds/seas remain below SCA levels today into Friday.
May see a brief period of borderlines SCA conds Friday afternoon.

Long Term...SCA`s may be needed Saturday night and Sunday.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Cempa




000
FXUS61 KCAR 300949
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
549 AM EDT THU JUN 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak high pressure will approach the region today then move east
Friday. A warm front will cross the region friday night, then a
cold front Saturday afternoon.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
525 AM Update: Fog is no longer an issue across the N hlf of the
FA, so we dropped the mention of it in the wx grids. Over the E
Cntrl and Downeast ptns of the regions, we lessened fog cvrg to
patchy based on sfc obs and web cam lctns in this area.
Otherwise...fcst hrly temps were updated based on obsvd lows from
last ngt and 5 am obsvd temps. Forecast hi temps were raised one
deg F from the prev fcst due to the erly lift of fog and milder
obsvd lows then the prev fcst.

Orgnl Disc: Will cont with areas of fairly shallow fog across the
FA for the next 2 to 3 hrs with vsbys fluctuating ovr the TAF
sites, then transition to patchy fog for the remainder of the erly
morn with the next update. Otherwise, skies should become ptly to
msly sunny later this morn into this aftn. Whats left of an upper
trof lifting ENE from far Nrn ptns of the FA this morn and midday
could result in isold low top shwrs msly across the N hlf of the
FA from midday into erly aftn, before stronger subsidence
dissipates any shwrs and brings clrg late this aftn into this eve.
Temps will intially be a little slow to rise erly to mid morn with
low cldnss and fog slowly lifting and dissipating, but then should
rise to highs at or slightly abv seasonal norms.

Clear skies tngt and lgt winds may result in very shallow patchy
fog late tngt into the erly morn as left ovr sfc-BL moisture
condenses with radiational cooling msly across broad rvr vly
lctns. Any fog erly Fri morn should then lift and dissipate
within an hr aft sunset. Ovrngt low temps will be near seasonal
norms.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Friday will be warmer with highs reaching the low to mid 80s
except near the coast where the onshore flow will limit highs to
the upper 60s to lower 70s. After an upper ridge crests over the
area Friday morning and an upper trough approaches, there`s an
outside shot for some convection to fire later in the afternoon
with moisture being a limiting factor. On Friday night, a vigorous
upper trough will approach with a surface warm front. With the
cooling aloft, this warm front may feature some elevated
convection later Friday night into early Saturday morning with
locally heavy showers. Lows will only drop to the lower 60s except
along the coast where mid to upper 50s are anticipated.  There is
some uncertainty on how quickly the front will occlude Saturday
morning as it crosses the forecast area. Will make the assumption
that much of the forecast will be in a warm sector until later in
the afternoon when a strong cold front sweeps across the area.
Following this assumption, the cooling aloft with the upper low
could produce some impressive mid level lapse rates and CAPE.
Combined with the potential bulk shear in the southern half of the
forecast area, severe storms have to be considered. Regardless of
how Saturday plays out, colder and drier air will be advecting
into the region Saturday night with lows in the 50s and breezy
conditions.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Sunday will be a cool and windy day with much less humidity. Highs
will be in the upper 60s north and mid 70s towards Bangor and Down
East with an offshore flow. Light showers and clouds will be
possible north of Houlton and Millinocket with an upper low
spinning north of the state in Quebec. Winds may gust to over 30
mph on Sunday with afternoon mixing. The winds continue to be the
story on Monday with slightly warmer temperatures and dry
conditions. Gusts may again reach 30 mph in the afternoon.  Have
maintained dry conditions in the forecast into Wednesday with
moderating temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR to VLIFR conditions in areas of fog erly this morn
across the TAF sites will transition to MVFR mid to late morn as
both clgs and vsbys lift, then to VFR by aftn. Msly VFR tonight
with brief MVFR or IFR vsbys at low lying rvr vly TAF sites late
tngt.

SHORT TERM: Conditions will be VFR Friday into Friday evening at
all terminals. A warm front will cross Friday night into early
Saturday morning. This front will draw IFR to LIFR cigs and vis
north from the Gulf of Maine to reach all terminals by later in
the night. Embedded thunderstorms will be possible...mostly after
midnight into daybreak. On Saturday...conditions will begin IFR
with the low cigs and vis...but improve to VFR by late morning.
Severe thunderstorms are a threat Saturday afternoon as a cold
front sweeps across the area. Otherwise...it will be VFR Saturday
afternoon into Monday with the exception of some MVFR cigs north
of HUL later Saturday night into Sunday morning.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: No hdlns in the near term with 7-8 sec pd wind-swell
wvs with hts of 2 to 4 ft ovr the outer waters and arnd 2 ft alg
the near shore. marine ST and fog should lift late this morn.
Otherwise, went with about 85 to 90 percent of WW3 for fcst wv
hts for this fcst update for the near term.

SHORT TERM: Fog will return over the waters Friday and continue
into Saturday night. In exchange for fog, winds and seas will rise
Sunday with a very good possibility of needing a Small Craft
Advisory Sunday and Sunday night. With the influx of holiday
weekend recreational boaters, this could be a significant issue.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

Near Term...VJN
Short Term...MCW
Long Term...MCW
Aviation...VJN/MCW
Marine...VJN/MCW




000
FXUS61 KCAR 300734
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
334 AM EDT THU JUN 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak high pressure will approach the region today then move east
Friday. A warm front will cross the region friday night, then a
cold front Saturday afternoon.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Will cont with areas of fairly shallow fog across the FA for the
next 2 to 3 hrs with vsbys fluctuating ovr the TAF sites, then
transition to patchy fog for the remainder of the erly morn with
the next update. Otherwise, skies should become ptly to msly sunny
later this morn into this aftn. Whats left of an upper trof
lifting ENE from far Nrn ptns of the FA this morn and midday could
result in isold low top shwrs msly across the N hlf of the FA from
midday into erly aftn, before stronger subsidence dissipates any
shwrs and brings clrg late this aftn into this eve. Temps will
intially be a little slow to rise erly to mid morn with low cldnss
and fog slowly lifting and dissipating, but then should rise to
highs at or slightly abv seasonal norms.

Clear skies tngt and lgt winds may result in very shallow patchy
fog late tngt into the erly morn as left ovr sfc-BL moisture
condenses with radiational cooling msly across broad rvr vly
lctns. Any fog erly Fri morn should then lift and dissipate
within an hr aft sunset. Ovrngt low temps will be near seasonal
norms.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Friday will be warmer with highs reaching the low to mid 80s
except near the coast where the onshore flow will limit highs to
the upper 60s to lower 70s. After an upper ridge crests over the
area Friday morning and an upper trough approaches, there`s an
outside shot for some convection to fire later in the afternoon
with moisture being a limiting factor. On Friday night, a vigorous
upper trough will approach with a surface warm front. With the
cooling aloft, this warm front may feature some elevated
convection later Friday night into early Saturday morning with
locally heavy showers. Lows will only drop to the lower 60s except
along the coast where mid to upper 50s are anticipated.  There is
some uncertainty on how quickly the front will occlude Saturday
morning as it crosses the forecast area. Will make the assumption
that much of the forecast will be in a warm sector until later in
the afternoon when a strong cold front sweeps across the area.
Following this assumption, the cooling aloft with the upper low
could produce some impressive mid level lapse rates and CAPE.
Combined with the potential bulk shear in the southern half of the
forecast area, severe storms have to be considered. Regardless of
how Saturday plays out, colder and drier air will be advecting
into the region Saturday night with lows in the 50s and breezy
conditions.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Sunday will be a cool and windy day with much less humidity. Highs
will be in the upper 60s north and mid 70s towards Bangor and Down
East with an offshore flow. Light showers and clouds will be
possible north of Houlton and Millinocket with an upper low
spinning north of the state in Quebec. Winds may gust to over 30
mph on Sunday with afternoon mixing. The winds continue to be the
story on Monday with slightly warmer temperatures and dry
conditions. Gusts may again reach 30 mph in the afternoon.  Have
maintained dry conditions in the forecast into Wednesday with
moderating temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR to VLIFR conditions in areas of fog erly this morn
across the TAF sites will transition to MVFR mid to late morn as
both clgs and vsbys lift, then to VFR by aftn. Msly VFR tonight
with brief MVFR or IFR vsbys at low lying rvr vly TAF sites late
tngt.

SHORT TERM: Conditions will be VFR Friday into Friday evening at
all terminals. A warm front will cross Friday night into early
Saturday morning. This front will draw IFR to LIFR cigs and vis
north from the Gulf of Maine to reach all terminals by later in
the night. Embedded thunderstorms will be possible...mostly after
midnight into daybreak. On Saturday...conditions will begin IFR
with the low cigs and vis...but improve to VFR by late morning.
Severe thunderstorms are a threat Saturday afternoon as a cold
front sweeps across the area. Otherwise...it will be VFR Saturday
afternoon into Monday with the exception of some MVFR cigs north
of HUL later Saturday night into Sunday morning.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: No hdlns in the near term with 7-8 sec pd wind-swell
wvs with hts of 2 to 4 ft ovr the outer waters and arnd 2 ft alg
the near shore. marine ST and fog should lift late this morn.
Otherwise, went with about 85 to 90 percent of WW3 for fcst wv
hts for this fcst update for the near term.

SHORT TERM: Fog will return over the waters Friday and continue
into Saturday night. In exchange for fog, winds and seas will rise
Sunday with a very good possibility of needing a Small Craft
Advisory Sunday and Sunday night. With the influx of holiday
weekend recreational boaters, this could be a significant issue.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

Near Term...VJN
Short Term...MCW
Long Term...MCW
Aviation...VJN/MCW
Marine...VJN/MCW




000
FXUS61 KCAR 300724
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
324 AM EDT THU JUN 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak high pressure will approach the region today then move east
Friday. A warm front will cross the region friday night, then a
cold front Saturday afternoon.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Will cont with areas of fairly shallow fog across the FA for the
next 2 to 3 hrs with vsbys fluctuating ovr the TAF sites, then
transition to patchy fog for the remainder of the erly morn with
the next update. Otherwise, skies should become ptly to msly sunny
later this morn into this aftn. Whats left of an upper trof
lifting ENE from far Nrn ptns of the FA this morn and midday could
result in isold low top shwrs msly across the N hlf of the FA from
midday into erly aft, before stronger subsidence dissipates any
shwrs and brings clrg late this aftn into this eve. Temps will
intially be a little slow to rise erly to mid morn with low cldnss
and fog slowly lifting and dissipating, but then should rise to
highs at or slightly abv seasonal norms.

Clear skies tngt and lgt winds may result in very shallow patchy
fog late tngt into the erly morn as left ovr sfc-BL moisture
condenses with radiational cooling msly across broad rvr vly
lctns. Any fog erly Fri morn should then lift and dissipate
within an hr aft sunset. Ovrngt low temps will be near seasonal
norms.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Friday will be warmer with highs reaching the low to mid 80s
except near the coast where the onshore flow will limit highs to
the upper 60s to lower 70s. After an upper ridge crests over the
area Friday morning and an upper trough approaches, there`s an
outside shot for some convection to fire later in the afternoon
with moisture being a limiting factor. On Friday night, a vigorous
upper trough will approach with a surface warm front. With the
cooling aloft, this warm front may feature some elevated
convection later Friday night into early Saturday morning with
locally heavy showers. Lows will only drop to the lower 60s except
along the coast where mid to upper 50s are anticipated.  There is
some uncertainty on how quickly the front will occlude Saturday
morning as it crosses the forecast area. Will make the assumption
that much of the forecast will be in a warm sector until later in
the afternoon when a strong cold front sweeps across the area.
Following this assumption, the cooling aloft with the upper low
could produce some impressive mid level lapse rates and CAPE.
Combined with the potential bulk shear in the southern half of the
forecast area, severe storms have to be considered. Regardless of
how Saturday plays out, colder and drier air will be advecting
into the region Saturday night with lows in the 50s and breezy
conditions.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Sunday will be a cool and windy day with much less humidity. Highs
will be in the upper 60s north and mid 70s towards Bangor and Down
East with an offshore flow. Light showers and clouds will be
possible north of Houlton and Millinocket with an upper low
spinning north of the state in Quebec. Winds may gust to over 30
mph on Sunday with afternoon mixing. The winds continue to be the
story on Monday with slightly warmer temperatures and dry
conditions. Gusts may again reach 30 mph in the afternoon.  Have
maintained dry conditions in the forecast into Wednesday with
moderating temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR to VLIFR conditions in areas of fog erly this morn
across the TAF sites will transition to MVFR mid to late morn as
both clgs and vsbys lift, then to VFR by aftn. Msly VFR tonight
with brief MVFR or IFR vsbys at low lying rvr vly TAF sites late
tngt.

SHORT TERM: Conditions will be VFR Friday into Friday evening at
all terminals. A warm front will cross Friday night into early
Saturday morning. This front will draw IFR to LIFR cigs and vis
north from the Gulf of Maine to reach all terminals by later in
the night. Embedded thunderstorms will be possible...mostly after
midnight into daybreak. On Saturday...conditions will begin IFR
with the low cigs and vis...but improve to VFR by late morning.
Severe thunderstorms are a threat Saturday afternoon as a cold
front sweeps across the area. Otherwise...it will be VFR Saturday
afternoon into Monday with the exception of some MVFR cigs north
of HUL later Saturday night into Sunday morning.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: No hdlns in the near term with 7-8 sec pd wind-swell
wvs with hts of 2 to 4 ft ovr the outer waters and arnd 2 ft alg
the near shore. marine ST and fog should lift late this morn.
Otherwise, went with about 85 to 90 percent of WW3 for fcst wv
hts for this fcst update for the near term.

SHORT TERM: Fog will return over the waters Friday and continue
into Saturday night. In exchange for fog, winds and seas will rise
Sunday with a very good possibility of needing a Small Craft
Advisory Sunday and Sunday night. With the influx of holiday
weekend recreational boaters, this could be a significant issue.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

Near Term...VJN
Short Term...MCW
Long Term...MCW
Aviation...VJN/MCW
Marine...VJN/MCW




000
FXUS61 KGYX 300703
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
303 AM EDT THU JUN 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build in from the west today and cross the
region tonight and Friday. A cold front will approach from the
west late Friday and will cross the region Friday night, bring
scattered showers and thunderstorms. A trough of low pressure will
linger over the area Saturday. High pressure will build in from
the west Sunday through Tuesday, bringing fair and gradually
warming conditions.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
Sunny and seasonably warm conditions expected for today, that is
as soon as the fog and low clouds dissipate after sunrise. This
should occur fairly quickly for the most part as the drier air
mixes down. Highs today will range from the mid to upper 70s in
the mountains and at the beaches, with 80-85 everywhere else.
Will see a late sea breeze develop, so coastal zones will be
limited to around 80.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
Sfc high center passes just to our south and this should make for
a decent radiation cooling night, at least as good as it gets
this time of year, with short night and high sun angle. Lows will
range from around 50 in the sheltered mountain spots, to the upper
50s along the coast and in southern NH. Valley fog is a good bet
as well, and could see some fog moving in along the mid coast, too.

Friday morning will start off sunny with just some scattered
cirrus, but will see cumulus begin to develop as low level
moisture increases and temps warm into the low to mid 80s. This
should produce enough instability to produce some sct showers and
t-storms, especially over interior and the mountains of ME, but
some uncertainty exists if there is enough of a trigger to get
things going ahead of the dynamics aloft, so pops were limited to
chance thru the afternoon in these areas. The best chance for
showers and storms will occur with best dynamics aloft on Friday
night.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Cold front will swing in from the west Friday night with showers
and thunderstorms likely through the evening hours. Should be a
quick hitter with associated precip pushing east of the forecast
area shortly after midnight. Expect partial clearing downwind of
the mountains after midnight as downsloping kicks in behind the
front. Low temps will range from the mid 50s to lower 60s.

Deep closed low will settle into the northeast for Saturday. Expect
winds to pick up during the day as 850 gradient tightens
significantly during the afternoon. Upslope flow and low level
moisture will keep skies mostly cloudy in the mountains where a
few showers will be possible. Should see a mix of sun and clouds
downwind of the mountains. High temps will range from the upper
60s to mid 70s north and mid 70s to near 80 south.

Skies will remain mostly cloudy Saturday night in northern zones
with variable clouds elsewhere. Lows overnight will generally
range through the 50s.

Another breezy day on tap for Sunday as persistent westerly winds
buffet the region. Should see more in the way of sunshine in
northern zones as upper low pulls away and mostly sunny skies
elsewhere. Expect high temps similar to Saturdays.

High pressure builds in from the west Sunday night and Monday. Will
see less in the way of wind but still looking for breezy conditions.
Expect mostly clear skies through the period with highs on Monday
reaching the mid 70s to mid 80s.

Fair weather and moderating temps will continue for both Tuesday and
Wednesday as high pressure remains in control over the northeast.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Short Term...Dry air aloft trying to mix down in spots where the
fog is occuring, mainly near the coast. This is creating varying
conditions,. and this will likely continue thru sunrise. Should
see a quick improvement to VFR at all but KRKD. At KLEB/KHIE,
should start to see the valley fog develop in the 06-08Z time
range, and that will break around 12Z. KCON may see a brief period
of fog around sunrise.

VFR expected the rest of today through Friday afternoon. Outside chance
of TSRA at interior NH terminals Friday afternoon.

Long Term...areas of MVFR/IFR ceilings/vsby Friday night. VFR
Saturday with areas of MVFR ceilings in the mountains. VFR Sunday
and Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...Winds/seas remain below SCA levels today into Friday.
May see a brief period of borderlines SCA conds Friday afternoon.

Long Term...SCA`s may be needed Saturday night and Sunday.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KCAR 300411
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
1211 AM EDT THU JUN 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front will slowly move east of the area tonight. High
pressure will cross the region Thursday through early Friday. A
warm front will cross the region later Friday, with a cold front
Friday night. Another cold front will cross the region Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
Mdngt Update: Showers have msly ended across the FA, but with
plenty of left ovr llvl moisture, clrg skies, and lgt winds...
areas of fog have begun to develop. This update addresses all of
these elements, in addition to updating fcst hrly temps and dwpts
thru the remainder of the ngt to fcst low temps at 5am which were
slightly lowered for msly NW vlys.

Orgnl Disc: A weak cold front will slowly push across the area
this evening as an upper level trough of low pressure lifts across
the north. Showers and some embedded thunderstorms, mostly across
the north, will dissipate this evening. Skies will then trend
clearer from south to north late tonight into Thursday morning.
Weak upper level ridging pushing across the area on Thursday
combined with weak surface high pressure will then bring a mostly
sunny day Thursday with a warm afternoon and light winds.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High pressure will cross the region Thursday night with mostly
clear skies. High pressure then moves east early Friday...with a
warm front approaching late. Cloud cover will begin to increase
Friday afternoon with a chance of showers late mostly across
western portions of the forecast area. A cold front then crosses
the region Friday night through early Saturday with showers and
thunderstorms. A secondary cold front/trof crosses the region
Saturday afternoon while an upper low approaches northern areas.
Temperatures aloft will cool Saturday afternoon along with
steepening mid level lapse rates which will increase afternoon
instability, particularly across northern portions of the
forecast area. The increased instability along the the cold
front/trof will support the chance of afternoon thunderstorms
across the forecast area Saturday, particularly northern areas.
Temperatures are expected to be at above normal levels Friday,
with near normal level temperatures Saturday.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The upper level low will track north of the region Saturday night
keeping a chance of showers across northern portions of the
forecast area, with partly cloudy/mostly clear skies Downeast. The
upper low will exit across the maritimes Sunday. However, could
still have a chance of showers across northern areas Sunday with
partly/mostly sunny skies Downeast. High pressure will build across
the region Monday into Tuesday. However, an upper level
disturbance could possibly bring the risk of an isolated shower
across mostly the north and mountains. A cold front could begin to
approach later Wednesday with a slight chance of showers.
Temperatures should be at near normal levels Sunday/Monday, with
slightly above normal level temperatures Tuesday/Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR conditions are expected this evening, lowering to
IFR in some lower stratus clouds later this evening and overnight.
Conditions will then improve to MVFR then VFR Thursday morning in
clearing skies. VFR conditions are expected Thursday afternoon.

SHORT TERM: Generally expect VFR conditions Thursday night into
Friday, though MVFR conditions could begin to develop late Friday.
MVFR to LIFR conditions are expected Friday night into early
Saturday. Occasional MVFR/IFR conditions are possible later Saturday.
Generally expect VFR conditions Sunday, though occasional MVFR
conditions are possible across northern areas.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds and seas are expected to be below SCA today and
tonight. Some fog will continue to obscure visibilities over the
waters this evening with an improvement in visibilities late
tonight through Thursday following the passage of a weak cold
front.

SHORT TERM: Winds/seas are expected to remain below small craft
advisory levels Thursday night through Saturday. Visibilities will
be reduced in fog Friday afternoon into Saturday.
Showers/thunderstorms are also expected Friday night, with still
a chance of showers Saturday.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

Near Term...Bloomer/VJN
Short Term...Norcross
Long Term...Norcross
Aviation...Bloomer/VJN/Norcross
Marine...Bloomer/VJN/Norcross




000
FXUS61 KGYX 300324
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
1124 PM EDT WED JUN 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak low pressure and an associated cold front will slide well
offshore overnight. High pressure will build in from the west
Thursday. A cold front will approach from the west on Friday and
will cross the region Friday night. A trough of low pressure will
linger over the region Saturday through Sunday. High pressure will
build in from the west Sunday night through Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...

1122 PM...Minor ESTF update to ingest the current mesonet into
near term grids.

Prev disc...
730 PM...convection continues to wind down and the
Flash flood Watch for the mountains has been dropped with this
ESTF update. I made adjustments to near term grids to reflect
radar and satellite trends as well as the 23z mesonet.

Prev Disc...
A very moist airmass is in place across the region and showers and
thunderstorms are moving across the area from southwest to
northeast. Rain rates of up to several inches an hour have been
observed in these storms. A flash flood watch remains in place for
the northern areas... which received the most rainfall in last
nights storm. The upper level vort max driving the surface font is
digging into Vermont and is expected to push the front through
New Hampshire by nightfall and across Maine during the early
evening. Shower activity will come to an end with the setting sun
and frontal passage.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Although a generally drier air mass aloft will push into the
region behind the front tonight.. the very moist air will remain
in place at the lower level creating fog in the coastal plain and
river valleys through early morning. As the sunrises fog will lift
and westerly flow will develop ushering in drier air. Temperatures
will climb to the low 80s south to 70s north in full sun.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High impact weather potential: low threat for isolated flooding
wednesday afternoon.

The broad scale pattern will continue to be a ridge over the
western united states with a trough over eastern Canada. After
brief ridging builds in for Thursday a vort max will dive south
out of James bay pushing another front through the region on
Friday night. Ahead of this front moist southerly flow will again
set up. Moisture will help to increase thunderstorm potential
though afternoon... a few storms could be severe as shear
increases to around 30kt. The real concern may again be localized
heavy rainfall producing flooding. PWAT climbs to in excess of 1.5
inches with freezing levels remaining around 12kft... allowing for
plenty of warm rain processes. Have added heavy rainfall wording
to the forecast for this period.

Cold front will push east of the forecast area late Friday night.
Again fog may linger in any areas which receive significant
rainfall.

For saturday the upper level low tries to close off over southern
Quebec. This will put northern New England on the southern
periphery of the system with increased cloud cover and a few
showers possible in the mountains. Looking for a mix of clouds
and sun for a majority of the day with highs ranging from the mid
70s to lower 80s.

Cyclonic flow will continue on Sunday as upper trough axis pushes
east. Looking for clouds to persist in the mountains along with a
chance of showers. Expect a fair amount of cloudiness downwind of
the mountains. Highs will range through the 70s to near 80.

High pressure will build in from the west Sunday night as upper low
lifts out of the northeast. Expect gradual clearing overnight with lows
in the 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Short Term... Showers and thunderstorms will continue to impact
all terminals over the next several hours. Ceilings have generally
lifted to MVFR. After sunset expect all terminals to drop to IFR
by 4am... with VLIFR possible at PWM RKD and PSM. LEB will also
likely go down to LIFR.

Long Term...VFR Thursday night. Areas of MVFR/IFR ceilings/vsby
in afternoon and evening convection Friday. VFR Saturday through
Sunday.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...quiet on the waters with seas and waves remaining below
SCA criteria.

Long Term...Sca`s likely on Sunday.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
ES




000
FXUS61 KCAR 300041
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
841 PM EDT WED JUN 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front will slowly move east of the area tonight. High
pressure will cross the region Thursday through early Friday. A
warm front will cross the region later Friday, with a cold front
Friday night. Another cold front will cross the region Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Update 840 PM - The slow moving line of showers and isolated
thunderstorms has reached the New Brunswick border. Scattered
showers and perhaps a thunderstorm or two may redevelop through
midnight as the upper low over Quebec lifts to the northeast.
Updated the forecast to reflect current radar and satellite
trends.

Update 610 PM - A slow moving line of showers and thunderstorms
was pushing into eastern Maine this evening. Hourly rainfall rates
of up to one half inch per hour were reported by the WSR-88D
weather radar with rates diminishing due to the loss of daytime
heating. The line will continue to diminish as it pushes east,
however can expect organized activity through midnight.

A weak cold front will slowly push across the area this evening as
an upper level trough of low pressure lifts across the north.
Showers and some embedded thunderstorms, mostly across the north,
will dissipate this evening. Skies will then trend clearer from
south to north late tonight into Thursday morning. Weak upper
level ridging pushing across the area on Thursday combined with
weak surface high pressure will then bring a mostly sunny day
Thursday with a warm afternoon and light winds.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High pressure will cross the region Thursday night with mostly
clear skies. High pressure then moves east early Friday...with a
warm front approaching late. Cloud cover will begin to increase
Friday afternoon with a chance of showers late mostly across
western portions of the forecast area. A cold front then crosses
the region Friday night through early Saturday with showers and
thunderstorms. A secondary cold front/trof crosses the region
Saturday afternoon while an upper low approaches northern areas.
Temperatures aloft will cool Saturday afternoon along with
steepening mid level lapse rates which will increase afternoon
instability, particularly across northern portions of the
forecast area. The increased instability along the the cold
front/trof will support the chance of afternoon thunderstorms
across the forecast area Saturday, particularly northern areas.
Temperatures are expected to be at above normal levels Friday,
with near normal level temperatures Saturday.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The upper level low will track north of the region Saturday night
keeping a chance of showers across northern portions of the
forecast area, with partly cloudy/mostly clear skies Downeast. The
upper low will exit across the maritimes Sunday. However, could
still have a chance of showers across northern areas Sunday with
partly/mostly sunny skies Downeast. High pressure will build across
the region Monday into Tuesday. However, an upper level
disturbance could possibly bring the risk of an isolated shower
across mostly the north and mountains. A cold front could begin to
approach later Wednesday with a slight chance of showers.
Temperatures should be at near normal levels Sunday/Monday, with
slightly above normal level temperatures Tuesday/Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR conditions are expected this evening, lowering to
IFR in some lower stratus clouds later this evening and overnight.
Conditions will then improve to MVFR then VFR Thursday morning in
clearing skies. VFR conditions are expected Thursday afternoon.

SHORT TERM: Generally expect VFR conditions Thursday night into
Friday, though MVFR conditions could begin to develop late Friday.
MVFR to LIFR conditions are expected Friday night into early
Saturday. Occasional MVFR/IFR conditions are possible later Saturday.
Generally expect VFR conditions Sunday, though occasional MVFR
conditions are possible across northern areas.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds and seas are expected to be below SCA today and
tonight. Some fog will continue to obscure visibilities over the
waters this evening with an improvement in visibilities late
tonight through Thursday following the passage of a weak cold
front.

SHORT TERM: Winds/seas are expected to remain below small craft
advisory levels Thursday night through Saturday. Visibilities will
be reduced in fog Friday afternoon into Saturday.
Showers/thunderstorms are also expected Friday night, with still
a chance of showers Saturday.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

Near Term...Bloomer/Okulski
Short Term...Norcross
Long Term...Norcross
Aviation...Bloomer/Okulski/Norcross
Marine...Bloomer/Okulski/Norcross




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