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000
FXUS61 KCAR 230804
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
404 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LOW WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH A FEW
SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN MAINE. THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES THIS AFTERNOON. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD
NORTH ALONG THE EAST COAST NEXT WEEK BRINGING UNSEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION THIS MORNING. ANY
LINGERING SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH EARLY THIS MORNING AS THE UPPER
LOW PULLS TO THE EAST.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS FROM THE SOUTH TODAY WITH PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED. GUSTY WEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY
AS A RATHER TIGHT GRADIENT DEVELOPS BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE TO OUR
NORTHEAST AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH. STEEPENING LAPSE RATES
WILL RESULT IN A WELL MIXED ATMOSPHERE WITH WINDS GUSTING AS HIGH
AS 35 MPH ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION TODAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
TODAY WILL BE RUNNING WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
HIGHS ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOW 50S NORTH AND MID TO
UPPER 50S CENTRAL AND DOWN EAST.

EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. A
WEAK SHORT WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST MAY BRING AN ISOLATED
SHOWER TO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS LATE TONIGHT. LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.


&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A MAJOR WARM-UP EXPECTED DURING THE SHORT TERM. 500H HEIGHTS ACROSS
NORTHERN MAINE RISE NEARLY 200 DAM DURING THIS TIME AS A STRONG SUB-
TROPICAL RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD NORTH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THE
LOW LEVELS WARM SIGNIFICANTLY WITH 925 MB TEMPS EXPECTED TO RISE
FROM AROUND +7C AT 12Z SUN TO +15C BY 00Z TUE. A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA SUN MORNING WITH THE CHANCE OF A
SHOWER IN A FEW SPOTS ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MAINE. DRIER AIR
WORKS IN FOR THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 15 DEGREES
WARMER THAN SATURDAY WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID 60S ACROSS THE CROWN
OF MAINE TO THE LOW 70S FOR INTERIOR DOWNEAST. IT WILL BE COOLER
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. EVEN WARMER MEMORIAL DAY WITH HIGHS
WELL INTO THE 70S FROM INTERIOR DOWNEAST NORTH TO THE ST JOHN
VALLEY. A FEW SPOTS MAY COME CLOSE TO 80 DEGREES...AND WILL BUMP
UP THE HIGHS FOR MOST INLAND AREAS BY A FEW DEGREES BASED ON THE
WARMTH OF THE AIR MASS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL AND MORE TYPICAL OF MID SUMMER. A STRONG SUB-TROPICAL/BERMUDA
HIGH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL BUILD NORTH AND IS EXPECTED
TO BE CENTERED OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST LATE WEEK. THE
RIDGE WHICH INITIALLY BUILDS NORTH WILL TAKE ON A MORE WEST TO
EAST ORIENTATION LATE IN THE WEEK WITH THE POLAR JET TO BE
DISPLACED TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. 500H HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE SOME 120 DAM ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AND ON THE
ORDER OF 2-3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. THIS WILL MEAN
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S MOST DAYS FROM INLAND DOWNEAST
NORTH TO THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY. LOW TEMPS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN
MAINE MAY END UP NEAR RECORD WARM LEVELS. A COUPLE OF SFC LOWS
TRACK TO THE NORTH AND MAY TOUGH OFF A FEW SHOWERS AT TIMES...MAINLY
TUE MORNING ACROSS THE NORTH AND AGAIN LATER IN THE DAY WED INTO
WED NIGHT AND AGAIN FRI...BUT MUCH OF THE TIME WILL BE RAIN-FREE
AND WARM.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: BRIEF MVFR IN SCT SHOWERS THROUGH 12Z KFVE/KCAR/KPQI/KHUL
TERMINALS OTHERWISE VFR THROUGH TONIGHT. GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL DEVELOP TODAY.

SHORT TERM: PREDOMINATELY VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS SUN MORNING AT
THE NORTHERN TERMINALS...AND AGAIN TUE INTO WED AS MORE SHOWERS
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION AT TIMES.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM
TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE SUN INTO SUN
EVENING.  SEAS MAY BUILD ENOUGH WITH PERSISTENT S/SW FLOW THAT A SCA
MAYBE REQUIRED AGAIN BY TUE AFTERNOON INTO WED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY WEST WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY
TODAY WILL RESULT IN CRITICAL WEATHER CONDITIONS. AFTER
COORDINATING WITH WFO GYX WILL BE UPGRADING THE FIRE WEATHER
WATCH TO A RED FLAG WARNING TODAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MEZ002-005-006-
     010-011-031-032.
     RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     MEZ001>006-010-011-015>017-029>032.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DUDA
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM...CB
AVIATION...DUDA/CB
MARINE...DUDA/CB
FIRE WEATHER...DUDA




000
FXUS61 KCAR 230804
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
404 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LOW WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH A FEW
SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN MAINE. THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES THIS AFTERNOON. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD
NORTH ALONG THE EAST COAST NEXT WEEK BRINGING UNSEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION THIS MORNING. ANY
LINGERING SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH EARLY THIS MORNING AS THE UPPER
LOW PULLS TO THE EAST.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS FROM THE SOUTH TODAY WITH PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED. GUSTY WEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY
AS A RATHER TIGHT GRADIENT DEVELOPS BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE TO OUR
NORTHEAST AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH. STEEPENING LAPSE RATES
WILL RESULT IN A WELL MIXED ATMOSPHERE WITH WINDS GUSTING AS HIGH
AS 35 MPH ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION TODAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
TODAY WILL BE RUNNING WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
HIGHS ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOW 50S NORTH AND MID TO
UPPER 50S CENTRAL AND DOWN EAST.

EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. A
WEAK SHORT WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST MAY BRING AN ISOLATED
SHOWER TO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS LATE TONIGHT. LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.


&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A MAJOR WARM-UP EXPECTED DURING THE SHORT TERM. 500H HEIGHTS ACROSS
NORTHERN MAINE RISE NEARLY 200 DAM DURING THIS TIME AS A STRONG SUB-
TROPICAL RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD NORTH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THE
LOW LEVELS WARM SIGNIFICANTLY WITH 925 MB TEMPS EXPECTED TO RISE
FROM AROUND +7C AT 12Z SUN TO +15C BY 00Z TUE. A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA SUN MORNING WITH THE CHANCE OF A
SHOWER IN A FEW SPOTS ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MAINE. DRIER AIR
WORKS IN FOR THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 15 DEGREES
WARMER THAN SATURDAY WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID 60S ACROSS THE CROWN
OF MAINE TO THE LOW 70S FOR INTERIOR DOWNEAST. IT WILL BE COOLER
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. EVEN WARMER MEMORIAL DAY WITH HIGHS
WELL INTO THE 70S FROM INTERIOR DOWNEAST NORTH TO THE ST JOHN
VALLEY. A FEW SPOTS MAY COME CLOSE TO 80 DEGREES...AND WILL BUMP
UP THE HIGHS FOR MOST INLAND AREAS BY A FEW DEGREES BASED ON THE
WARMTH OF THE AIR MASS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL AND MORE TYPICAL OF MID SUMMER. A STRONG SUB-TROPICAL/BERMUDA
HIGH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL BUILD NORTH AND IS EXPECTED
TO BE CENTERED OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST LATE WEEK. THE
RIDGE WHICH INITIALLY BUILDS NORTH WILL TAKE ON A MORE WEST TO
EAST ORIENTATION LATE IN THE WEEK WITH THE POLAR JET TO BE
DISPLACED TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. 500H HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE SOME 120 DAM ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AND ON THE
ORDER OF 2-3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. THIS WILL MEAN
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S MOST DAYS FROM INLAND DOWNEAST
NORTH TO THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY. LOW TEMPS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN
MAINE MAY END UP NEAR RECORD WARM LEVELS. A COUPLE OF SFC LOWS
TRACK TO THE NORTH AND MAY TOUGH OFF A FEW SHOWERS AT TIMES...MAINLY
TUE MORNING ACROSS THE NORTH AND AGAIN LATER IN THE DAY WED INTO
WED NIGHT AND AGAIN FRI...BUT MUCH OF THE TIME WILL BE RAIN-FREE
AND WARM.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: BRIEF MVFR IN SCT SHOWERS THROUGH 12Z KFVE/KCAR/KPQI/KHUL
TERMINALS OTHERWISE VFR THROUGH TONIGHT. GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL DEVELOP TODAY.

SHORT TERM: PREDOMINATELY VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS SUN MORNING AT
THE NORTHERN TERMINALS...AND AGAIN TUE INTO WED AS MORE SHOWERS
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION AT TIMES.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM
TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE SUN INTO SUN
EVENING.  SEAS MAY BUILD ENOUGH WITH PERSISTENT S/SW FLOW THAT A SCA
MAYBE REQUIRED AGAIN BY TUE AFTERNOON INTO WED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY WEST WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY
TODAY WILL RESULT IN CRITICAL WEATHER CONDITIONS. AFTER
COORDINATING WITH WFO GYX WILL BE UPGRADING THE FIRE WEATHER
WATCH TO A RED FLAG WARNING TODAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MEZ002-005-006-
     010-011-031-032.
     RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     MEZ001>006-010-011-015>017-029>032.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DUDA
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM...CB
AVIATION...DUDA/CB
MARINE...DUDA/CB
FIRE WEATHER...DUDA



000
FXUS61 KCAR 230804
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
404 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LOW WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH A FEW
SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN MAINE. THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES THIS AFTERNOON. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD
NORTH ALONG THE EAST COAST NEXT WEEK BRINGING UNSEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION THIS MORNING. ANY
LINGERING SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH EARLY THIS MORNING AS THE UPPER
LOW PULLS TO THE EAST.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS FROM THE SOUTH TODAY WITH PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED. GUSTY WEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY
AS A RATHER TIGHT GRADIENT DEVELOPS BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE TO OUR
NORTHEAST AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH. STEEPENING LAPSE RATES
WILL RESULT IN A WELL MIXED ATMOSPHERE WITH WINDS GUSTING AS HIGH
AS 35 MPH ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION TODAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
TODAY WILL BE RUNNING WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
HIGHS ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOW 50S NORTH AND MID TO
UPPER 50S CENTRAL AND DOWN EAST.

EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. A
WEAK SHORT WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST MAY BRING AN ISOLATED
SHOWER TO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS LATE TONIGHT. LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.


&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A MAJOR WARM-UP EXPECTED DURING THE SHORT TERM. 500H HEIGHTS ACROSS
NORTHERN MAINE RISE NEARLY 200 DAM DURING THIS TIME AS A STRONG SUB-
TROPICAL RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD NORTH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THE
LOW LEVELS WARM SIGNIFICANTLY WITH 925 MB TEMPS EXPECTED TO RISE
FROM AROUND +7C AT 12Z SUN TO +15C BY 00Z TUE. A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA SUN MORNING WITH THE CHANCE OF A
SHOWER IN A FEW SPOTS ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MAINE. DRIER AIR
WORKS IN FOR THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 15 DEGREES
WARMER THAN SATURDAY WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID 60S ACROSS THE CROWN
OF MAINE TO THE LOW 70S FOR INTERIOR DOWNEAST. IT WILL BE COOLER
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. EVEN WARMER MEMORIAL DAY WITH HIGHS
WELL INTO THE 70S FROM INTERIOR DOWNEAST NORTH TO THE ST JOHN
VALLEY. A FEW SPOTS MAY COME CLOSE TO 80 DEGREES...AND WILL BUMP
UP THE HIGHS FOR MOST INLAND AREAS BY A FEW DEGREES BASED ON THE
WARMTH OF THE AIR MASS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL AND MORE TYPICAL OF MID SUMMER. A STRONG SUB-TROPICAL/BERMUDA
HIGH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL BUILD NORTH AND IS EXPECTED
TO BE CENTERED OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST LATE WEEK. THE
RIDGE WHICH INITIALLY BUILDS NORTH WILL TAKE ON A MORE WEST TO
EAST ORIENTATION LATE IN THE WEEK WITH THE POLAR JET TO BE
DISPLACED TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. 500H HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE SOME 120 DAM ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AND ON THE
ORDER OF 2-3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. THIS WILL MEAN
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S MOST DAYS FROM INLAND DOWNEAST
NORTH TO THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY. LOW TEMPS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN
MAINE MAY END UP NEAR RECORD WARM LEVELS. A COUPLE OF SFC LOWS
TRACK TO THE NORTH AND MAY TOUGH OFF A FEW SHOWERS AT TIMES...MAINLY
TUE MORNING ACROSS THE NORTH AND AGAIN LATER IN THE DAY WED INTO
WED NIGHT AND AGAIN FRI...BUT MUCH OF THE TIME WILL BE RAIN-FREE
AND WARM.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: BRIEF MVFR IN SCT SHOWERS THROUGH 12Z KFVE/KCAR/KPQI/KHUL
TERMINALS OTHERWISE VFR THROUGH TONIGHT. GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL DEVELOP TODAY.

SHORT TERM: PREDOMINATELY VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS SUN MORNING AT
THE NORTHERN TERMINALS...AND AGAIN TUE INTO WED AS MORE SHOWERS
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION AT TIMES.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM
TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE SUN INTO SUN
EVENING.  SEAS MAY BUILD ENOUGH WITH PERSISTENT S/SW FLOW THAT A SCA
MAYBE REQUIRED AGAIN BY TUE AFTERNOON INTO WED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY WEST WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY
TODAY WILL RESULT IN CRITICAL WEATHER CONDITIONS. AFTER
COORDINATING WITH WFO GYX WILL BE UPGRADING THE FIRE WEATHER
WATCH TO A RED FLAG WARNING TODAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MEZ002-005-006-
     010-011-031-032.
     RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     MEZ001>006-010-011-015>017-029>032.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DUDA
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM...CB
AVIATION...DUDA/CB
MARINE...DUDA/CB
FIRE WEATHER...DUDA



000
FXUS61 KCAR 230804
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
404 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LOW WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH A FEW
SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN MAINE. THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES THIS AFTERNOON. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD
NORTH ALONG THE EAST COAST NEXT WEEK BRINGING UNSEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION THIS MORNING. ANY
LINGERING SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH EARLY THIS MORNING AS THE UPPER
LOW PULLS TO THE EAST.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS FROM THE SOUTH TODAY WITH PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED. GUSTY WEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY
AS A RATHER TIGHT GRADIENT DEVELOPS BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE TO OUR
NORTHEAST AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH. STEEPENING LAPSE RATES
WILL RESULT IN A WELL MIXED ATMOSPHERE WITH WINDS GUSTING AS HIGH
AS 35 MPH ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION TODAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
TODAY WILL BE RUNNING WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
HIGHS ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOW 50S NORTH AND MID TO
UPPER 50S CENTRAL AND DOWN EAST.

EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. A
WEAK SHORT WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST MAY BRING AN ISOLATED
SHOWER TO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS LATE TONIGHT. LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.


&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A MAJOR WARM-UP EXPECTED DURING THE SHORT TERM. 500H HEIGHTS ACROSS
NORTHERN MAINE RISE NEARLY 200 DAM DURING THIS TIME AS A STRONG SUB-
TROPICAL RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD NORTH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THE
LOW LEVELS WARM SIGNIFICANTLY WITH 925 MB TEMPS EXPECTED TO RISE
FROM AROUND +7C AT 12Z SUN TO +15C BY 00Z TUE. A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA SUN MORNING WITH THE CHANCE OF A
SHOWER IN A FEW SPOTS ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MAINE. DRIER AIR
WORKS IN FOR THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 15 DEGREES
WARMER THAN SATURDAY WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID 60S ACROSS THE CROWN
OF MAINE TO THE LOW 70S FOR INTERIOR DOWNEAST. IT WILL BE COOLER
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. EVEN WARMER MEMORIAL DAY WITH HIGHS
WELL INTO THE 70S FROM INTERIOR DOWNEAST NORTH TO THE ST JOHN
VALLEY. A FEW SPOTS MAY COME CLOSE TO 80 DEGREES...AND WILL BUMP
UP THE HIGHS FOR MOST INLAND AREAS BY A FEW DEGREES BASED ON THE
WARMTH OF THE AIR MASS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL AND MORE TYPICAL OF MID SUMMER. A STRONG SUB-TROPICAL/BERMUDA
HIGH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL BUILD NORTH AND IS EXPECTED
TO BE CENTERED OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST LATE WEEK. THE
RIDGE WHICH INITIALLY BUILDS NORTH WILL TAKE ON A MORE WEST TO
EAST ORIENTATION LATE IN THE WEEK WITH THE POLAR JET TO BE
DISPLACED TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. 500H HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE SOME 120 DAM ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AND ON THE
ORDER OF 2-3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. THIS WILL MEAN
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S MOST DAYS FROM INLAND DOWNEAST
NORTH TO THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY. LOW TEMPS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN
MAINE MAY END UP NEAR RECORD WARM LEVELS. A COUPLE OF SFC LOWS
TRACK TO THE NORTH AND MAY TOUGH OFF A FEW SHOWERS AT TIMES...MAINLY
TUE MORNING ACROSS THE NORTH AND AGAIN LATER IN THE DAY WED INTO
WED NIGHT AND AGAIN FRI...BUT MUCH OF THE TIME WILL BE RAIN-FREE
AND WARM.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: BRIEF MVFR IN SCT SHOWERS THROUGH 12Z KFVE/KCAR/KPQI/KHUL
TERMINALS OTHERWISE VFR THROUGH TONIGHT. GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL DEVELOP TODAY.

SHORT TERM: PREDOMINATELY VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS SUN MORNING AT
THE NORTHERN TERMINALS...AND AGAIN TUE INTO WED AS MORE SHOWERS
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION AT TIMES.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM
TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE SUN INTO SUN
EVENING.  SEAS MAY BUILD ENOUGH WITH PERSISTENT S/SW FLOW THAT A SCA
MAYBE REQUIRED AGAIN BY TUE AFTERNOON INTO WED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY WEST WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY
TODAY WILL RESULT IN CRITICAL WEATHER CONDITIONS. AFTER
COORDINATING WITH WFO GYX WILL BE UPGRADING THE FIRE WEATHER
WATCH TO A RED FLAG WARNING TODAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MEZ002-005-006-
     010-011-031-032.
     RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     MEZ001>006-010-011-015>017-029>032.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DUDA
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM...CB
AVIATION...DUDA/CB
MARINE...DUDA/CB
FIRE WEATHER...DUDA



000
FXUS61 KCAR 230804
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
404 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LOW WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH A FEW
SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN MAINE. THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES THIS AFTERNOON. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD
NORTH ALONG THE EAST COAST NEXT WEEK BRINGING UNSEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION THIS MORNING. ANY
LINGERING SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH EARLY THIS MORNING AS THE UPPER
LOW PULLS TO THE EAST.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS FROM THE SOUTH TODAY WITH PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED. GUSTY WEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY
AS A RATHER TIGHT GRADIENT DEVELOPS BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE TO OUR
NORTHEAST AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH. STEEPENING LAPSE RATES
WILL RESULT IN A WELL MIXED ATMOSPHERE WITH WINDS GUSTING AS HIGH
AS 35 MPH ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION TODAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
TODAY WILL BE RUNNING WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
HIGHS ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOW 50S NORTH AND MID TO
UPPER 50S CENTRAL AND DOWN EAST.

EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. A
WEAK SHORT WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST MAY BRING AN ISOLATED
SHOWER TO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS LATE TONIGHT. LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.


&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A MAJOR WARM-UP EXPECTED DURING THE SHORT TERM. 500H HEIGHTS ACROSS
NORTHERN MAINE RISE NEARLY 200 DAM DURING THIS TIME AS A STRONG SUB-
TROPICAL RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD NORTH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THE
LOW LEVELS WARM SIGNIFICANTLY WITH 925 MB TEMPS EXPECTED TO RISE
FROM AROUND +7C AT 12Z SUN TO +15C BY 00Z TUE. A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA SUN MORNING WITH THE CHANCE OF A
SHOWER IN A FEW SPOTS ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MAINE. DRIER AIR
WORKS IN FOR THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 15 DEGREES
WARMER THAN SATURDAY WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID 60S ACROSS THE CROWN
OF MAINE TO THE LOW 70S FOR INTERIOR DOWNEAST. IT WILL BE COOLER
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. EVEN WARMER MEMORIAL DAY WITH HIGHS
WELL INTO THE 70S FROM INTERIOR DOWNEAST NORTH TO THE ST JOHN
VALLEY. A FEW SPOTS MAY COME CLOSE TO 80 DEGREES...AND WILL BUMP
UP THE HIGHS FOR MOST INLAND AREAS BY A FEW DEGREES BASED ON THE
WARMTH OF THE AIR MASS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL AND MORE TYPICAL OF MID SUMMER. A STRONG SUB-TROPICAL/BERMUDA
HIGH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL BUILD NORTH AND IS EXPECTED
TO BE CENTERED OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST LATE WEEK. THE
RIDGE WHICH INITIALLY BUILDS NORTH WILL TAKE ON A MORE WEST TO
EAST ORIENTATION LATE IN THE WEEK WITH THE POLAR JET TO BE
DISPLACED TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. 500H HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE SOME 120 DAM ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AND ON THE
ORDER OF 2-3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. THIS WILL MEAN
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S MOST DAYS FROM INLAND DOWNEAST
NORTH TO THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY. LOW TEMPS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN
MAINE MAY END UP NEAR RECORD WARM LEVELS. A COUPLE OF SFC LOWS
TRACK TO THE NORTH AND MAY TOUGH OFF A FEW SHOWERS AT TIMES...MAINLY
TUE MORNING ACROSS THE NORTH AND AGAIN LATER IN THE DAY WED INTO
WED NIGHT AND AGAIN FRI...BUT MUCH OF THE TIME WILL BE RAIN-FREE
AND WARM.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: BRIEF MVFR IN SCT SHOWERS THROUGH 12Z KFVE/KCAR/KPQI/KHUL
TERMINALS OTHERWISE VFR THROUGH TONIGHT. GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL DEVELOP TODAY.

SHORT TERM: PREDOMINATELY VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS SUN MORNING AT
THE NORTHERN TERMINALS...AND AGAIN TUE INTO WED AS MORE SHOWERS
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION AT TIMES.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM
TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE SUN INTO SUN
EVENING.  SEAS MAY BUILD ENOUGH WITH PERSISTENT S/SW FLOW THAT A SCA
MAYBE REQUIRED AGAIN BY TUE AFTERNOON INTO WED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY WEST WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY
TODAY WILL RESULT IN CRITICAL WEATHER CONDITIONS. AFTER
COORDINATING WITH WFO GYX WILL BE UPGRADING THE FIRE WEATHER
WATCH TO A RED FLAG WARNING TODAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MEZ002-005-006-
     010-011-031-032.
     RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     MEZ001>006-010-011-015>017-029>032.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DUDA
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM...CB
AVIATION...DUDA/CB
MARINE...DUDA/CB
FIRE WEATHER...DUDA


  [top]

000
FXUS61 KGYX 230731
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
331 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST TODAY AND THEN SHIFTS TO OUR
SOUTH ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE FAIR AND COOL CONDITIONS
TODAY...WITH MUCH WARMER WEATHER ON SUNDAY INTO MEMORIAL DAY. A
WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREAS MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY....PROVIDING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. WARM AND
MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
COLD FRONT HAS CROSSED THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING...AND A
SEASONABLY COLD AIR MASS CONTINUES TO POUR INTO THE REGION. THIS
CAA IS KEEPING WINDS FAIRLY GUSTY ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. AS
A RESULT...TEMPS HAVE ONLY SLOWLY AND STEADILY FALLEN. HIGH PRES
IS BUILDING IN QUICKLY FROM THE W...SO WRN ZONES MAY BE ABLE TO
DECOUPLE BEFORE SUNRISE AND ALLOW A QUICKER DROP IN READINGS.
ELSEWHERE EXPECT THE CURRENT FREEZE WARNINGS TO WORK OUT
WELL...WITH FROST ADVISORIES REMAINING IN PLACE AS WELL.
HOWEVER...ANY WIND WILL LIKELY MAKE WIDESPREAD FROST DIFFICULT TO
ATTAIN THIS MORNING.

THE OTHER CONCERN TODAY IS THE FIRE DANGER. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
CONTINUE TO SHOW MIXED LAYER THRU AT LEAST 825 MB. DEWPOINTS AT
THIS LEVEL INDICATE THE POTENTIAL TO MIX DOWN LOW TEENS VALUES BY
AFTERNOON. THIS WOULD BRING WIDESPREAD RH VALUES BELOW 20 PERCENT.
WINDS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER ARE NOT OVERLY STRONG...BUT GUSTS OF
20 TO 25 KTS WILL BE LIKELY. FINALLY RECENT DRY WX HAS ENSURED
THAT FINE FUELS REMAIN READY TO BURN DESPITE GREEN UP BEING UNDER
WAY. THE COMBINATION OF THESE FACTORS WILL LEAD TO RED FLAG
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. THE ADDED ASPECT OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND
AND OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES LIKE BONFIRES AND GRILLING WILL ONLY
ELEVATE THE RISK FURTHER. WOULD RATHER HAVE A RED FLAG WARNING OUT
THAN NOT AT THIS POINT...SO HAVE UPGRADED THE WATCH EVERYWHERE TO
A WARNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT RETURN FLOW QUICKLY BEGINS...AND FOR THAT REASON WE WILL
SEE A WARMER NIGHT FOR MOST AREAS. BY SUN TEMPS WILL WARM QUITE
NICELY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH PRES...WITH 70S FOR MUCH OF THE
INTERIOR. WITH W TO WSW FLOW IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...THE FAVORED
WARM SPOTS LIKE KASH COULD REACH THE 80S. ALSO EXPECTING SOME
DEWPOINT RECOVERY IN THE RETURN FLOW REGIME...BUT COULD STILL SEE
WIDESPREAD RH VALUES BELOW 30 PERCENT IN THE AFTERNOON. THAT
PROBABLY RULES OUT ANOTHER ROUND OF RED FLAG CONDITIONS...BUT AN
ELEVATED FIRE DANGER WILL STILL EXIST.

WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH A WEAK COLD FRONT SKIRTING THE TOP OF THE
RIDGE. WILL PROBABLY TRY AND TOUCH OFF A FEW SHOWERS IN THE NRN
ZONES DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE PROBABLY IS LOW AT THIS
TIME...BUT SPC SREF GUIDANCE DOES HINT AT A SMALL CHANCE AT
THUNDER BUT WILL LEAVE IT OUT OF THE GRIDS FOR NOW UNTIL
CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BLOCKY SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN AT 500 MB EXPECTED NEXT WEEK AS
RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE ERN CONUS AND WRN ATLANTIC AND 500MB JET
RETREATS POLEWARD. THIS WILL LEAD TO WARM AND MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS...WITH POTENTIAL FOR SCT TSRA...AT TIMES...AS WE ARE
ON THE SRN PERIPHERY OF IMPULSES MOVING BY IN THE STRONGER 500 MB
FLOW TO OUR N.

SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE ABOUT 5-10F WARMER THAN TONIGHT UNDER MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES WITH LOWS IN THE MID-UPPR 40S IN THE MTNS AND LOW-MID
50S CLOSER TO THE COAST. MONDAY SHOULD START OFF MAINLY
SUNNY...BUT WILL SEE MID-HIGH CLOUDS MOVE IN FROM THE WEST DURING
THE AFTERNOON. THERES A SLIGHT CHC FOR A SHOWER IN THE MTNS IN THE
AFTERNOON...BUT THE REAL THREAT OF ANY RAIN HOLDS UNTIL MON NIGHT.

DECENT MID-LVL WAA WILL MOVE THROUGH MON NIGHT INTO TUE
MORNING...AND SHOULD PRODUCE A PERIOD OF RAIN OR SOME CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. TDS RISE QUICKLY BEHIND THIS WARM
FRONT SHOOTING UP INTO THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S. SRN ZONES SHOULD
BREAK OUT INTO SUN FAIRLY EARLY ION THE DAY AND WILL SEE HIGHS
SOAR INTO THE LOW-MID 80S HERE..WITH 70S ELSEWHERE AS CLOUDS
LINGER THRU THE MORNING. WED-THU WILL BE WARM AND HUMID...WITH
HIGHS IN THE 80S INLAND...AND IN THE 70S ON THE COAST. MODELS MOVE
A WAVE OR TWO OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE...SO THERE WILL BE THE
THREAT OF SHRA/TSRA IN THE NRN ZONES.

BETTER CHC FOR SHRA/TSRA WILL BE AT THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO
SAT AS MODELS TRY TO BREAK THE RIDGE DOWN WITH SOME WEAK WAVES IN
THE 500 MB FLOW. THE EURO HOLDS THE RIDGING AND WARM AIR IN PLACE
ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND THRU NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THRU SUN. NW WIND GUSTS OF
25 KTS ARE POSSIBLE THRU THIS AFTERNOON AT ALL TERMINALS. WLY WIND
GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KTS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN SUN.

LONG TERM...VFR SUN NIGHT AND MONDAY. FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE
EXPECTED MON NIGHT INTO AT LEAST TUE MORNING IN SHOWERS AND
LOWERING CEILINGS...WITH A RETURN TO VFR TUE AFTERNOON THRU WED.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SCA CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE WATERS UNTIL
THIS EVENING WHEN WINDS AND SEAS BEGIN TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH.

LONG TERM...SW FLOW PERSISTS MONDAY THRU WED AND COULD FLARE TO
NEAR SCA LVLS MON AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
VERY DRY AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE TODAY...WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES DROPPING BELOW 20 PERCENT BY AFTERNOON. GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH WILL CREATE SOME DANGEROUS FIRE BEHAVIOR
CONDITIONS. GREEN UP IS UNDERWAY...BUT RECENT DRY WEATHER WILL
ENSURE THAT FINE FUELS REMAIN READY TO BURN. THERE WILL BE SOME
RELATIVE HUMIDITY RECOVERY TONIGHT...BUT SIMILAR CONDITIONS
SUNDAY COULD LEAD TO ELEVATED FIRE DANGER AGAIN.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MEZ012>014.
     RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     MEZ007>009-012>014-018>028.
     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MEZ007>009.
NH...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NHZ006-008-009-
     011-015.
     RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     NHZ004-006>015.
     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NHZ001>005-007.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LEGRO
SHORT TERM...LEGRO
LONG TERM...CEMPA
AVIATION...CEMPA/LEGRO
MARINE...CEMPA/LEGRO
FIRE WEATHER...LEGRO



000
FXUS61 KGYX 230731
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
331 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST TODAY AND THEN SHIFTS TO OUR
SOUTH ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE FAIR AND COOL CONDITIONS
TODAY...WITH MUCH WARMER WEATHER ON SUNDAY INTO MEMORIAL DAY. A
WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREAS MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY....PROVIDING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. WARM AND
MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
COLD FRONT HAS CROSSED THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING...AND A
SEASONABLY COLD AIR MASS CONTINUES TO POUR INTO THE REGION. THIS
CAA IS KEEPING WINDS FAIRLY GUSTY ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. AS
A RESULT...TEMPS HAVE ONLY SLOWLY AND STEADILY FALLEN. HIGH PRES
IS BUILDING IN QUICKLY FROM THE W...SO WRN ZONES MAY BE ABLE TO
DECOUPLE BEFORE SUNRISE AND ALLOW A QUICKER DROP IN READINGS.
ELSEWHERE EXPECT THE CURRENT FREEZE WARNINGS TO WORK OUT
WELL...WITH FROST ADVISORIES REMAINING IN PLACE AS WELL.
HOWEVER...ANY WIND WILL LIKELY MAKE WIDESPREAD FROST DIFFICULT TO
ATTAIN THIS MORNING.

THE OTHER CONCERN TODAY IS THE FIRE DANGER. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
CONTINUE TO SHOW MIXED LAYER THRU AT LEAST 825 MB. DEWPOINTS AT
THIS LEVEL INDICATE THE POTENTIAL TO MIX DOWN LOW TEENS VALUES BY
AFTERNOON. THIS WOULD BRING WIDESPREAD RH VALUES BELOW 20 PERCENT.
WINDS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER ARE NOT OVERLY STRONG...BUT GUSTS OF
20 TO 25 KTS WILL BE LIKELY. FINALLY RECENT DRY WX HAS ENSURED
THAT FINE FUELS REMAIN READY TO BURN DESPITE GREEN UP BEING UNDER
WAY. THE COMBINATION OF THESE FACTORS WILL LEAD TO RED FLAG
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. THE ADDED ASPECT OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND
AND OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES LIKE BONFIRES AND GRILLING WILL ONLY
ELEVATE THE RISK FURTHER. WOULD RATHER HAVE A RED FLAG WARNING OUT
THAN NOT AT THIS POINT...SO HAVE UPGRADED THE WATCH EVERYWHERE TO
A WARNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT RETURN FLOW QUICKLY BEGINS...AND FOR THAT REASON WE WILL
SEE A WARMER NIGHT FOR MOST AREAS. BY SUN TEMPS WILL WARM QUITE
NICELY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH PRES...WITH 70S FOR MUCH OF THE
INTERIOR. WITH W TO WSW FLOW IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...THE FAVORED
WARM SPOTS LIKE KASH COULD REACH THE 80S. ALSO EXPECTING SOME
DEWPOINT RECOVERY IN THE RETURN FLOW REGIME...BUT COULD STILL SEE
WIDESPREAD RH VALUES BELOW 30 PERCENT IN THE AFTERNOON. THAT
PROBABLY RULES OUT ANOTHER ROUND OF RED FLAG CONDITIONS...BUT AN
ELEVATED FIRE DANGER WILL STILL EXIST.

WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH A WEAK COLD FRONT SKIRTING THE TOP OF THE
RIDGE. WILL PROBABLY TRY AND TOUCH OFF A FEW SHOWERS IN THE NRN
ZONES DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE PROBABLY IS LOW AT THIS
TIME...BUT SPC SREF GUIDANCE DOES HINT AT A SMALL CHANCE AT
THUNDER BUT WILL LEAVE IT OUT OF THE GRIDS FOR NOW UNTIL
CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BLOCKY SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN AT 500 MB EXPECTED NEXT WEEK AS
RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE ERN CONUS AND WRN ATLANTIC AND 500MB JET
RETREATS POLEWARD. THIS WILL LEAD TO WARM AND MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS...WITH POTENTIAL FOR SCT TSRA...AT TIMES...AS WE ARE
ON THE SRN PERIPHERY OF IMPULSES MOVING BY IN THE STRONGER 500 MB
FLOW TO OUR N.

SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE ABOUT 5-10F WARMER THAN TONIGHT UNDER MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES WITH LOWS IN THE MID-UPPR 40S IN THE MTNS AND LOW-MID
50S CLOSER TO THE COAST. MONDAY SHOULD START OFF MAINLY
SUNNY...BUT WILL SEE MID-HIGH CLOUDS MOVE IN FROM THE WEST DURING
THE AFTERNOON. THERES A SLIGHT CHC FOR A SHOWER IN THE MTNS IN THE
AFTERNOON...BUT THE REAL THREAT OF ANY RAIN HOLDS UNTIL MON NIGHT.

DECENT MID-LVL WAA WILL MOVE THROUGH MON NIGHT INTO TUE
MORNING...AND SHOULD PRODUCE A PERIOD OF RAIN OR SOME CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. TDS RISE QUICKLY BEHIND THIS WARM
FRONT SHOOTING UP INTO THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S. SRN ZONES SHOULD
BREAK OUT INTO SUN FAIRLY EARLY ION THE DAY AND WILL SEE HIGHS
SOAR INTO THE LOW-MID 80S HERE..WITH 70S ELSEWHERE AS CLOUDS
LINGER THRU THE MORNING. WED-THU WILL BE WARM AND HUMID...WITH
HIGHS IN THE 80S INLAND...AND IN THE 70S ON THE COAST. MODELS MOVE
A WAVE OR TWO OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE...SO THERE WILL BE THE
THREAT OF SHRA/TSRA IN THE NRN ZONES.

BETTER CHC FOR SHRA/TSRA WILL BE AT THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO
SAT AS MODELS TRY TO BREAK THE RIDGE DOWN WITH SOME WEAK WAVES IN
THE 500 MB FLOW. THE EURO HOLDS THE RIDGING AND WARM AIR IN PLACE
ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND THRU NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THRU SUN. NW WIND GUSTS OF
25 KTS ARE POSSIBLE THRU THIS AFTERNOON AT ALL TERMINALS. WLY WIND
GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KTS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN SUN.

LONG TERM...VFR SUN NIGHT AND MONDAY. FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE
EXPECTED MON NIGHT INTO AT LEAST TUE MORNING IN SHOWERS AND
LOWERING CEILINGS...WITH A RETURN TO VFR TUE AFTERNOON THRU WED.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SCA CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE WATERS UNTIL
THIS EVENING WHEN WINDS AND SEAS BEGIN TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH.

LONG TERM...SW FLOW PERSISTS MONDAY THRU WED AND COULD FLARE TO
NEAR SCA LVLS MON AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
VERY DRY AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE TODAY...WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES DROPPING BELOW 20 PERCENT BY AFTERNOON. GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH WILL CREATE SOME DANGEROUS FIRE BEHAVIOR
CONDITIONS. GREEN UP IS UNDERWAY...BUT RECENT DRY WEATHER WILL
ENSURE THAT FINE FUELS REMAIN READY TO BURN. THERE WILL BE SOME
RELATIVE HUMIDITY RECOVERY TONIGHT...BUT SIMILAR CONDITIONS
SUNDAY COULD LEAD TO ELEVATED FIRE DANGER AGAIN.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MEZ012>014.
     RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     MEZ007>009-012>014-018>028.
     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MEZ007>009.
NH...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NHZ006-008-009-
     011-015.
     RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     NHZ004-006>015.
     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NHZ001>005-007.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LEGRO
SHORT TERM...LEGRO
LONG TERM...CEMPA
AVIATION...CEMPA/LEGRO
MARINE...CEMPA/LEGRO
FIRE WEATHER...LEGRO



000
FXUS61 KGYX 230731
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
331 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST TODAY AND THEN SHIFTS TO OUR
SOUTH ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE FAIR AND COOL CONDITIONS
TODAY...WITH MUCH WARMER WEATHER ON SUNDAY INTO MEMORIAL DAY. A
WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREAS MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY....PROVIDING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. WARM AND
MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
COLD FRONT HAS CROSSED THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING...AND A
SEASONABLY COLD AIR MASS CONTINUES TO POUR INTO THE REGION. THIS
CAA IS KEEPING WINDS FAIRLY GUSTY ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. AS
A RESULT...TEMPS HAVE ONLY SLOWLY AND STEADILY FALLEN. HIGH PRES
IS BUILDING IN QUICKLY FROM THE W...SO WRN ZONES MAY BE ABLE TO
DECOUPLE BEFORE SUNRISE AND ALLOW A QUICKER DROP IN READINGS.
ELSEWHERE EXPECT THE CURRENT FREEZE WARNINGS TO WORK OUT
WELL...WITH FROST ADVISORIES REMAINING IN PLACE AS WELL.
HOWEVER...ANY WIND WILL LIKELY MAKE WIDESPREAD FROST DIFFICULT TO
ATTAIN THIS MORNING.

THE OTHER CONCERN TODAY IS THE FIRE DANGER. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
CONTINUE TO SHOW MIXED LAYER THRU AT LEAST 825 MB. DEWPOINTS AT
THIS LEVEL INDICATE THE POTENTIAL TO MIX DOWN LOW TEENS VALUES BY
AFTERNOON. THIS WOULD BRING WIDESPREAD RH VALUES BELOW 20 PERCENT.
WINDS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER ARE NOT OVERLY STRONG...BUT GUSTS OF
20 TO 25 KTS WILL BE LIKELY. FINALLY RECENT DRY WX HAS ENSURED
THAT FINE FUELS REMAIN READY TO BURN DESPITE GREEN UP BEING UNDER
WAY. THE COMBINATION OF THESE FACTORS WILL LEAD TO RED FLAG
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. THE ADDED ASPECT OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND
AND OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES LIKE BONFIRES AND GRILLING WILL ONLY
ELEVATE THE RISK FURTHER. WOULD RATHER HAVE A RED FLAG WARNING OUT
THAN NOT AT THIS POINT...SO HAVE UPGRADED THE WATCH EVERYWHERE TO
A WARNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT RETURN FLOW QUICKLY BEGINS...AND FOR THAT REASON WE WILL
SEE A WARMER NIGHT FOR MOST AREAS. BY SUN TEMPS WILL WARM QUITE
NICELY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH PRES...WITH 70S FOR MUCH OF THE
INTERIOR. WITH W TO WSW FLOW IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...THE FAVORED
WARM SPOTS LIKE KASH COULD REACH THE 80S. ALSO EXPECTING SOME
DEWPOINT RECOVERY IN THE RETURN FLOW REGIME...BUT COULD STILL SEE
WIDESPREAD RH VALUES BELOW 30 PERCENT IN THE AFTERNOON. THAT
PROBABLY RULES OUT ANOTHER ROUND OF RED FLAG CONDITIONS...BUT AN
ELEVATED FIRE DANGER WILL STILL EXIST.

WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH A WEAK COLD FRONT SKIRTING THE TOP OF THE
RIDGE. WILL PROBABLY TRY AND TOUCH OFF A FEW SHOWERS IN THE NRN
ZONES DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE PROBABLY IS LOW AT THIS
TIME...BUT SPC SREF GUIDANCE DOES HINT AT A SMALL CHANCE AT
THUNDER BUT WILL LEAVE IT OUT OF THE GRIDS FOR NOW UNTIL
CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BLOCKY SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN AT 500 MB EXPECTED NEXT WEEK AS
RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE ERN CONUS AND WRN ATLANTIC AND 500MB JET
RETREATS POLEWARD. THIS WILL LEAD TO WARM AND MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS...WITH POTENTIAL FOR SCT TSRA...AT TIMES...AS WE ARE
ON THE SRN PERIPHERY OF IMPULSES MOVING BY IN THE STRONGER 500 MB
FLOW TO OUR N.

SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE ABOUT 5-10F WARMER THAN TONIGHT UNDER MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES WITH LOWS IN THE MID-UPPR 40S IN THE MTNS AND LOW-MID
50S CLOSER TO THE COAST. MONDAY SHOULD START OFF MAINLY
SUNNY...BUT WILL SEE MID-HIGH CLOUDS MOVE IN FROM THE WEST DURING
THE AFTERNOON. THERES A SLIGHT CHC FOR A SHOWER IN THE MTNS IN THE
AFTERNOON...BUT THE REAL THREAT OF ANY RAIN HOLDS UNTIL MON NIGHT.

DECENT MID-LVL WAA WILL MOVE THROUGH MON NIGHT INTO TUE
MORNING...AND SHOULD PRODUCE A PERIOD OF RAIN OR SOME CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. TDS RISE QUICKLY BEHIND THIS WARM
FRONT SHOOTING UP INTO THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S. SRN ZONES SHOULD
BREAK OUT INTO SUN FAIRLY EARLY ION THE DAY AND WILL SEE HIGHS
SOAR INTO THE LOW-MID 80S HERE..WITH 70S ELSEWHERE AS CLOUDS
LINGER THRU THE MORNING. WED-THU WILL BE WARM AND HUMID...WITH
HIGHS IN THE 80S INLAND...AND IN THE 70S ON THE COAST. MODELS MOVE
A WAVE OR TWO OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE...SO THERE WILL BE THE
THREAT OF SHRA/TSRA IN THE NRN ZONES.

BETTER CHC FOR SHRA/TSRA WILL BE AT THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO
SAT AS MODELS TRY TO BREAK THE RIDGE DOWN WITH SOME WEAK WAVES IN
THE 500 MB FLOW. THE EURO HOLDS THE RIDGING AND WARM AIR IN PLACE
ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND THRU NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THRU SUN. NW WIND GUSTS OF
25 KTS ARE POSSIBLE THRU THIS AFTERNOON AT ALL TERMINALS. WLY WIND
GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KTS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN SUN.

LONG TERM...VFR SUN NIGHT AND MONDAY. FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE
EXPECTED MON NIGHT INTO AT LEAST TUE MORNING IN SHOWERS AND
LOWERING CEILINGS...WITH A RETURN TO VFR TUE AFTERNOON THRU WED.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SCA CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE WATERS UNTIL
THIS EVENING WHEN WINDS AND SEAS BEGIN TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH.

LONG TERM...SW FLOW PERSISTS MONDAY THRU WED AND COULD FLARE TO
NEAR SCA LVLS MON AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
VERY DRY AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE TODAY...WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES DROPPING BELOW 20 PERCENT BY AFTERNOON. GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH WILL CREATE SOME DANGEROUS FIRE BEHAVIOR
CONDITIONS. GREEN UP IS UNDERWAY...BUT RECENT DRY WEATHER WILL
ENSURE THAT FINE FUELS REMAIN READY TO BURN. THERE WILL BE SOME
RELATIVE HUMIDITY RECOVERY TONIGHT...BUT SIMILAR CONDITIONS
SUNDAY COULD LEAD TO ELEVATED FIRE DANGER AGAIN.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MEZ012>014.
     RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     MEZ007>009-012>014-018>028.
     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MEZ007>009.
NH...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NHZ006-008-009-
     011-015.
     RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     NHZ004-006>015.
     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NHZ001>005-007.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LEGRO
SHORT TERM...LEGRO
LONG TERM...CEMPA
AVIATION...CEMPA/LEGRO
MARINE...CEMPA/LEGRO
FIRE WEATHER...LEGRO




000
FXUS61 KGYX 230731
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
331 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST TODAY AND THEN SHIFTS TO OUR
SOUTH ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE FAIR AND COOL CONDITIONS
TODAY...WITH MUCH WARMER WEATHER ON SUNDAY INTO MEMORIAL DAY. A
WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREAS MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY....PROVIDING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. WARM AND
MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
COLD FRONT HAS CROSSED THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING...AND A
SEASONABLY COLD AIR MASS CONTINUES TO POUR INTO THE REGION. THIS
CAA IS KEEPING WINDS FAIRLY GUSTY ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. AS
A RESULT...TEMPS HAVE ONLY SLOWLY AND STEADILY FALLEN. HIGH PRES
IS BUILDING IN QUICKLY FROM THE W...SO WRN ZONES MAY BE ABLE TO
DECOUPLE BEFORE SUNRISE AND ALLOW A QUICKER DROP IN READINGS.
ELSEWHERE EXPECT THE CURRENT FREEZE WARNINGS TO WORK OUT
WELL...WITH FROST ADVISORIES REMAINING IN PLACE AS WELL.
HOWEVER...ANY WIND WILL LIKELY MAKE WIDESPREAD FROST DIFFICULT TO
ATTAIN THIS MORNING.

THE OTHER CONCERN TODAY IS THE FIRE DANGER. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
CONTINUE TO SHOW MIXED LAYER THRU AT LEAST 825 MB. DEWPOINTS AT
THIS LEVEL INDICATE THE POTENTIAL TO MIX DOWN LOW TEENS VALUES BY
AFTERNOON. THIS WOULD BRING WIDESPREAD RH VALUES BELOW 20 PERCENT.
WINDS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER ARE NOT OVERLY STRONG...BUT GUSTS OF
20 TO 25 KTS WILL BE LIKELY. FINALLY RECENT DRY WX HAS ENSURED
THAT FINE FUELS REMAIN READY TO BURN DESPITE GREEN UP BEING UNDER
WAY. THE COMBINATION OF THESE FACTORS WILL LEAD TO RED FLAG
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. THE ADDED ASPECT OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND
AND OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES LIKE BONFIRES AND GRILLING WILL ONLY
ELEVATE THE RISK FURTHER. WOULD RATHER HAVE A RED FLAG WARNING OUT
THAN NOT AT THIS POINT...SO HAVE UPGRADED THE WATCH EVERYWHERE TO
A WARNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT RETURN FLOW QUICKLY BEGINS...AND FOR THAT REASON WE WILL
SEE A WARMER NIGHT FOR MOST AREAS. BY SUN TEMPS WILL WARM QUITE
NICELY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH PRES...WITH 70S FOR MUCH OF THE
INTERIOR. WITH W TO WSW FLOW IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...THE FAVORED
WARM SPOTS LIKE KASH COULD REACH THE 80S. ALSO EXPECTING SOME
DEWPOINT RECOVERY IN THE RETURN FLOW REGIME...BUT COULD STILL SEE
WIDESPREAD RH VALUES BELOW 30 PERCENT IN THE AFTERNOON. THAT
PROBABLY RULES OUT ANOTHER ROUND OF RED FLAG CONDITIONS...BUT AN
ELEVATED FIRE DANGER WILL STILL EXIST.

WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH A WEAK COLD FRONT SKIRTING THE TOP OF THE
RIDGE. WILL PROBABLY TRY AND TOUCH OFF A FEW SHOWERS IN THE NRN
ZONES DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE PROBABLY IS LOW AT THIS
TIME...BUT SPC SREF GUIDANCE DOES HINT AT A SMALL CHANCE AT
THUNDER BUT WILL LEAVE IT OUT OF THE GRIDS FOR NOW UNTIL
CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BLOCKY SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN AT 500 MB EXPECTED NEXT WEEK AS
RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE ERN CONUS AND WRN ATLANTIC AND 500MB JET
RETREATS POLEWARD. THIS WILL LEAD TO WARM AND MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS...WITH POTENTIAL FOR SCT TSRA...AT TIMES...AS WE ARE
ON THE SRN PERIPHERY OF IMPULSES MOVING BY IN THE STRONGER 500 MB
FLOW TO OUR N.

SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE ABOUT 5-10F WARMER THAN TONIGHT UNDER MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES WITH LOWS IN THE MID-UPPR 40S IN THE MTNS AND LOW-MID
50S CLOSER TO THE COAST. MONDAY SHOULD START OFF MAINLY
SUNNY...BUT WILL SEE MID-HIGH CLOUDS MOVE IN FROM THE WEST DURING
THE AFTERNOON. THERES A SLIGHT CHC FOR A SHOWER IN THE MTNS IN THE
AFTERNOON...BUT THE REAL THREAT OF ANY RAIN HOLDS UNTIL MON NIGHT.

DECENT MID-LVL WAA WILL MOVE THROUGH MON NIGHT INTO TUE
MORNING...AND SHOULD PRODUCE A PERIOD OF RAIN OR SOME CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. TDS RISE QUICKLY BEHIND THIS WARM
FRONT SHOOTING UP INTO THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S. SRN ZONES SHOULD
BREAK OUT INTO SUN FAIRLY EARLY ION THE DAY AND WILL SEE HIGHS
SOAR INTO THE LOW-MID 80S HERE..WITH 70S ELSEWHERE AS CLOUDS
LINGER THRU THE MORNING. WED-THU WILL BE WARM AND HUMID...WITH
HIGHS IN THE 80S INLAND...AND IN THE 70S ON THE COAST. MODELS MOVE
A WAVE OR TWO OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE...SO THERE WILL BE THE
THREAT OF SHRA/TSRA IN THE NRN ZONES.

BETTER CHC FOR SHRA/TSRA WILL BE AT THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO
SAT AS MODELS TRY TO BREAK THE RIDGE DOWN WITH SOME WEAK WAVES IN
THE 500 MB FLOW. THE EURO HOLDS THE RIDGING AND WARM AIR IN PLACE
ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND THRU NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THRU SUN. NW WIND GUSTS OF
25 KTS ARE POSSIBLE THRU THIS AFTERNOON AT ALL TERMINALS. WLY WIND
GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KTS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN SUN.

LONG TERM...VFR SUN NIGHT AND MONDAY. FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE
EXPECTED MON NIGHT INTO AT LEAST TUE MORNING IN SHOWERS AND
LOWERING CEILINGS...WITH A RETURN TO VFR TUE AFTERNOON THRU WED.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SCA CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE WATERS UNTIL
THIS EVENING WHEN WINDS AND SEAS BEGIN TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH.

LONG TERM...SW FLOW PERSISTS MONDAY THRU WED AND COULD FLARE TO
NEAR SCA LVLS MON AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
VERY DRY AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE TODAY...WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES DROPPING BELOW 20 PERCENT BY AFTERNOON. GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH WILL CREATE SOME DANGEROUS FIRE BEHAVIOR
CONDITIONS. GREEN UP IS UNDERWAY...BUT RECENT DRY WEATHER WILL
ENSURE THAT FINE FUELS REMAIN READY TO BURN. THERE WILL BE SOME
RELATIVE HUMIDITY RECOVERY TONIGHT...BUT SIMILAR CONDITIONS
SUNDAY COULD LEAD TO ELEVATED FIRE DANGER AGAIN.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MEZ012>014.
     RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     MEZ007>009-012>014-018>028.
     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MEZ007>009.
NH...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NHZ006-008-009-
     011-015.
     RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     NHZ004-006>015.
     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NHZ001>005-007.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LEGRO
SHORT TERM...LEGRO
LONG TERM...CEMPA
AVIATION...CEMPA/LEGRO
MARINE...CEMPA/LEGRO
FIRE WEATHER...LEGRO




000
FXUS61 KCAR 230412
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1212 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED INTO SATURDAY AS AN UPPER LOW
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION FROM CANADA. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY WITH MORE SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
UPDATE: AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS CROSSING THE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING. CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS WERE MOVING ACROSS PARTS OF
NORTHERN/CENTRAL AREAS ATTM. TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN TO AROUND 30
DEGREES ACROSS THE COLDER VALLEYS OF THE NORTH BUT TEMEPEARTURES
WILL LEVEL OFF IF NOT RISE A FEW DEGREES WITH THE ONSET OF CLOUDS.
ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO GOING FORECAST.

ORGNL DISC: A TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
CENTRAL QUEBEC WILL ROTATE THROUGH NORTHERN MAINE OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS NRN MAINE TOMORROW
MORNING...PARTLY CLOUDY ELSEWHERE...WILL BEGIN CLEARING EARLY
TOMORROW MORNING AS THE UPPER LOW MOVE NE INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE
AREA. THE GRADIENT WILL CAUSE INCREASE WINDS WITH GUSTS TO THE LOW
TO MID 30S ACROSS NRN MAINE...MID 20S TO 30 ACROSS THE REST OF THE
AREA. WNDS WILL SUBSIDE TOMORROW EVENING AS THE LOW CONTINUE TO
TRACK NE.

LOADED A BLEND OF NAM/GFS/GEM/ECMWF FOR SKY/POP. CONTINUED WNDS
AND GUSTS FROM PREVIOUS FCST. MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HRLY
T/TD MAX/MIN FROM PREVIOUS FCST. LOADED NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS IN THE
COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FLOW WILL BECOME ZONAL ACROSS THE NORTHEAST DURING THE SHORT
TERM FORECAST PERIOD...RESULTING IN WARMER TEMPS AND ISOLD/SCTD
SHOWERS ACROSS OUR FCST AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SOME WARM WEATHER IS AHEAD FOR NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
OFF THE EAST COAST AND THE STORM TRACK STAYS NORTH ACROSS CANADA.
MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE A MILD NIGHT AS CLOUDS INCREASE AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING WARM FRONT. LOWS WILL ONLY BE IN THE 50S ACROSS THE
AREA. LOW PRESSURE TRACKING THROUGH CENTRAL QUEBEC WILL PULL THE
WARM FRONT INTO THE AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT BRINGING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS LATE AT NIGHT, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH. THE FRONT WILL
QUICKLY PUSH EAST ON TUESDAY. TUESDAY WILL BE A WINDY AND WARM DAY
WITH PARTIAL SUNSHINE AS DRIER AIR CIRCULATES INTO THE AREA. THIS
WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A BREEZY AND WARM NIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT THEN
ANOTHER WINDY AND WARM DAY ON WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER STORM TRACKING
NORTH OF THE AREA MAY BRING SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY SOME
SUNSHINE AND ANOTHER WARM DAY ON THURSDAY. WARM WEATHER WILL LIKELY
LAST INTO FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING TO OUR SOUTH AND A
WARM SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUING.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR ALL SITES AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...INCREASING
CLOUDS WITH SCT SHOWERS ACROSS NRN MAINE. BCMG MVFR IN PCPN
MIDNIGHT THROUGH 8AM AS A TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW MOVE
ACROSS NRN MAINE. OTHERWISE VFR THROUGH TO THE END OF THE PERIOD.

SHORT TERM: SCTD SHOWERS WILL AFFECT NORTHERN AND EASTERN MAIN
THIS WEEKEND...SOME OF WHICH COULD HAVE REDUCED VSBYS AND CIGS
ASSOCIATED WITH THEM. WINDS WILL ALSO BE BREEZY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO EXCEED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVEL FROM EARLY TOMORROW MORNING INTO TOMORROW EVENING.

SHORT TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL PROBABLY BE NEEDED SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS WINDS AND WAVES UNDER RETURN RETURN SWRLY
FLOW.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FINE FUELS ARE DRY...THIS COMBINED WITH THE GUSTY WINDS AND LOW
RH TOMORROW COULD CAUSE FIRES TO RAPIDLY GET OUT OF CONTROL. A RED
FLAG WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MEZ002-005-006-
     010-011-031-032.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING
     FOR MEZ001>006-010-011-015>017-029>032.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DUDA/VJN
SHORT TERM...BERDES
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...DUDA/VJN/BERDES
MARINE...DUDA/VJN/BERDES
FIRE WEATHER...



000
FXUS61 KCAR 230412
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1212 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED INTO SATURDAY AS AN UPPER LOW
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION FROM CANADA. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY WITH MORE SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
UPDATE: AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS CROSSING THE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING. CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS WERE MOVING ACROSS PARTS OF
NORTHERN/CENTRAL AREAS ATTM. TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN TO AROUND 30
DEGREES ACROSS THE COLDER VALLEYS OF THE NORTH BUT TEMEPEARTURES
WILL LEVEL OFF IF NOT RISE A FEW DEGREES WITH THE ONSET OF CLOUDS.
ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO GOING FORECAST.

ORGNL DISC: A TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
CENTRAL QUEBEC WILL ROTATE THROUGH NORTHERN MAINE OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS NRN MAINE TOMORROW
MORNING...PARTLY CLOUDY ELSEWHERE...WILL BEGIN CLEARING EARLY
TOMORROW MORNING AS THE UPPER LOW MOVE NE INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE
AREA. THE GRADIENT WILL CAUSE INCREASE WINDS WITH GUSTS TO THE LOW
TO MID 30S ACROSS NRN MAINE...MID 20S TO 30 ACROSS THE REST OF THE
AREA. WNDS WILL SUBSIDE TOMORROW EVENING AS THE LOW CONTINUE TO
TRACK NE.

LOADED A BLEND OF NAM/GFS/GEM/ECMWF FOR SKY/POP. CONTINUED WNDS
AND GUSTS FROM PREVIOUS FCST. MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HRLY
T/TD MAX/MIN FROM PREVIOUS FCST. LOADED NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS IN THE
COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FLOW WILL BECOME ZONAL ACROSS THE NORTHEAST DURING THE SHORT
TERM FORECAST PERIOD...RESULTING IN WARMER TEMPS AND ISOLD/SCTD
SHOWERS ACROSS OUR FCST AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SOME WARM WEATHER IS AHEAD FOR NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
OFF THE EAST COAST AND THE STORM TRACK STAYS NORTH ACROSS CANADA.
MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE A MILD NIGHT AS CLOUDS INCREASE AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING WARM FRONT. LOWS WILL ONLY BE IN THE 50S ACROSS THE
AREA. LOW PRESSURE TRACKING THROUGH CENTRAL QUEBEC WILL PULL THE
WARM FRONT INTO THE AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT BRINGING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS LATE AT NIGHT, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH. THE FRONT WILL
QUICKLY PUSH EAST ON TUESDAY. TUESDAY WILL BE A WINDY AND WARM DAY
WITH PARTIAL SUNSHINE AS DRIER AIR CIRCULATES INTO THE AREA. THIS
WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A BREEZY AND WARM NIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT THEN
ANOTHER WINDY AND WARM DAY ON WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER STORM TRACKING
NORTH OF THE AREA MAY BRING SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY SOME
SUNSHINE AND ANOTHER WARM DAY ON THURSDAY. WARM WEATHER WILL LIKELY
LAST INTO FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING TO OUR SOUTH AND A
WARM SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUING.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR ALL SITES AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...INCREASING
CLOUDS WITH SCT SHOWERS ACROSS NRN MAINE. BCMG MVFR IN PCPN
MIDNIGHT THROUGH 8AM AS A TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW MOVE
ACROSS NRN MAINE. OTHERWISE VFR THROUGH TO THE END OF THE PERIOD.

SHORT TERM: SCTD SHOWERS WILL AFFECT NORTHERN AND EASTERN MAIN
THIS WEEKEND...SOME OF WHICH COULD HAVE REDUCED VSBYS AND CIGS
ASSOCIATED WITH THEM. WINDS WILL ALSO BE BREEZY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO EXCEED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVEL FROM EARLY TOMORROW MORNING INTO TOMORROW EVENING.

SHORT TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL PROBABLY BE NEEDED SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS WINDS AND WAVES UNDER RETURN RETURN SWRLY
FLOW.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FINE FUELS ARE DRY...THIS COMBINED WITH THE GUSTY WINDS AND LOW
RH TOMORROW COULD CAUSE FIRES TO RAPIDLY GET OUT OF CONTROL. A RED
FLAG WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MEZ002-005-006-
     010-011-031-032.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING
     FOR MEZ001>006-010-011-015>017-029>032.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DUDA/VJN
SHORT TERM...BERDES
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...DUDA/VJN/BERDES
MARINE...DUDA/VJN/BERDES
FIRE WEATHER...




000
FXUS61 KGYX 222344
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
744 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE THIS EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL
APPROACH NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY...AND CROSS THE AREAS MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY....PROVIDING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS.
WARM AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&
23Z UPDATE...
CLOUDS ARE GRADUALLY DRYING UP IN WESTERN MAINE AND CENTRAL NEW
HAMPSHIRE WITH LOSS OF HEATING THIS EVENING. UPPER LEVEL ENERGY
STILL KICKING OFF SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND AND SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL HOLD TOGETHER LONG ENOUGH
TO BRING A FEW SPRINKLES TO SOUTHWEST NEW HAMPSHIRE AND THE
CENTRAL CONNECTICUT VALLEY THROUGH MIDNIGHT. EXPECT MID LEVEL
CLOUDS TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH IN THESE AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT AS
UPPER LOW CONTINUES EASTWARD. WINDS WILL ALSO GRADUALLY DIMINISH
TOWARD MIDNIGHT. ASIDE FROM A FEW TEMP ADJUSTMENTS NO OTHER
CHANGES PLANNED ATTM.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AT 18Z...THE COLD FRONT WAS DRAPED ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN. NWS
RADAR MOSAIC SHOWED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER WERE MAINLY NORTH
AND EAST OF /KPWM/ SITUATED ALONG OR JUST AHEAD OF THE SURFACE
FRONT. THIS ACTIVITY WILL EXIT THE COAST BY EARLY EVENING ALONG
WITH THE FRONT. ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...A FEW POST FRONTAL
UPSLOPE SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY TONIGHT WITH SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE FOR SOME OF THE PEAKS. GIVEN THE MAGNITUDE OF THE COLD
AIRMASS...WE SHOULD GO BELOW FREEZING ACROSS MUCH OF THE CURRENT
WATCH AREA OVERNIGHT EVEN IF WINDS ARE SLOW TO DROP OFF. ADJACENT
TO THE FREEZE WARNING WILL BE AREAS WHERE WE SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH
FOR AREAS OF FROST. OUTSIDE OF THE WARNING/ADVISORY AREAS...ENOUGH
WIND AND BORDERLINE TEMPERATURES TO PRECLUDE ANY WIDESPREAD FROST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
ON SATURDAY...THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD BY TO OUR SOUTH WITH
GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS AND COOL DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM 50S TO LOWER 60S GIVING IT A FALL LIKE FEEL TO THE
START OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. A WEAK FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH INTO
THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A FEW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED MOUNTAIN
SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES. NOT AS COLD AS TONIGHT...BUT EXPECT WE`LL
SEE AT LEAST SOME PATCHY FROST IN THE NORMALLY COLDER VALLEY LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THERE WILL BE A A RETURN OF SUMMER LIKE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
REGION BEGINNING NEXT WEEK. A DRY...BUT MILD WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW DEVELOPS ON SUNDAY AS WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGINS.

ON MONDAY...MOISTURE FINALLY RETURNS AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT.
INITIALLY...THE LOWER PORTIONS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE VERY DRY.
EXPECT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO MAINLY HOLD OFF UNTIL
THE MONDAY EVENING/MONDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME. HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE
ON THE ACTUAL EXACT TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION ONSET AS THE
MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN CONSISTENT ON THIS FEATURE.

THE FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF OUR AREA AND BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY
DURING THE MIDWEEK PERIOD NEXT WEEK. NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL BE
IN THE WARM SECTOR. THERE WILL BE WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...AND THIS WILL BE MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN AS THERE
REMAINS THE ABSENCE OF ANY SOLID TRIGGERING MECHANISMS FOR
CONVECTION.

THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SAG SOUTH NEXT WEEKEND. THIS SHOULD
TRIGGER MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...WHICH
WILL BE WELL NEEDED PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...NW SFC WND GUSTING TO 25 KT THROUGH 00Z BEFORE
DIMINISHING. W WINDS WILL GUST TO 25 KT DURING THE DAY TOMORROW.

LONG TERM...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY. FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE
EXPECTED MON NIGHT INTO AT LEAST TUE MORNING IN A FEW SHOWERS AND
LOWERING CEILINGS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...FOLLOWING PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS THROUGH LATE TOMORROW.

LONG TERM...WEST WINDS SUNDAY SHIFT TO SW ON MONDAY...AND WILL
GUST TO AROUND 25 KT BOTH DAYS. GUSTY SW WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY AIR MASS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE TODAY. GOOD RELATIVE
HUMIDITY RECOVERY IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT. ON
SATURDAY...MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF 15 TO 25 PERCENT
AND GUSTY WEST WINDS...WILL COMBINE WITH LOW FINE FUEL MOISTURE
VALUES TO CREATE AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ON
SUNDAY MAY RESULT IN AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     MEZ012>014.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR MEZ007>009-012>014-018>028.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     MEZ007>009.
NH...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     NHZ006-008-009-011-015.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR NHZ004-006>015.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     NHZ001>005-007.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KGYX 222344
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
744 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE THIS EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL
APPROACH NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY...AND CROSS THE AREAS MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY....PROVIDING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS.
WARM AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&
23Z UPDATE...
CLOUDS ARE GRADUALLY DRYING UP IN WESTERN MAINE AND CENTRAL NEW
HAMPSHIRE WITH LOSS OF HEATING THIS EVENING. UPPER LEVEL ENERGY
STILL KICKING OFF SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND AND SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL HOLD TOGETHER LONG ENOUGH
TO BRING A FEW SPRINKLES TO SOUTHWEST NEW HAMPSHIRE AND THE
CENTRAL CONNECTICUT VALLEY THROUGH MIDNIGHT. EXPECT MID LEVEL
CLOUDS TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH IN THESE AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT AS
UPPER LOW CONTINUES EASTWARD. WINDS WILL ALSO GRADUALLY DIMINISH
TOWARD MIDNIGHT. ASIDE FROM A FEW TEMP ADJUSTMENTS NO OTHER
CHANGES PLANNED ATTM.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AT 18Z...THE COLD FRONT WAS DRAPED ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN. NWS
RADAR MOSAIC SHOWED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER WERE MAINLY NORTH
AND EAST OF /KPWM/ SITUATED ALONG OR JUST AHEAD OF THE SURFACE
FRONT. THIS ACTIVITY WILL EXIT THE COAST BY EARLY EVENING ALONG
WITH THE FRONT. ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...A FEW POST FRONTAL
UPSLOPE SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY TONIGHT WITH SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE FOR SOME OF THE PEAKS. GIVEN THE MAGNITUDE OF THE COLD
AIRMASS...WE SHOULD GO BELOW FREEZING ACROSS MUCH OF THE CURRENT
WATCH AREA OVERNIGHT EVEN IF WINDS ARE SLOW TO DROP OFF. ADJACENT
TO THE FREEZE WARNING WILL BE AREAS WHERE WE SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH
FOR AREAS OF FROST. OUTSIDE OF THE WARNING/ADVISORY AREAS...ENOUGH
WIND AND BORDERLINE TEMPERATURES TO PRECLUDE ANY WIDESPREAD FROST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
ON SATURDAY...THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD BY TO OUR SOUTH WITH
GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS AND COOL DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM 50S TO LOWER 60S GIVING IT A FALL LIKE FEEL TO THE
START OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. A WEAK FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH INTO
THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A FEW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED MOUNTAIN
SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES. NOT AS COLD AS TONIGHT...BUT EXPECT WE`LL
SEE AT LEAST SOME PATCHY FROST IN THE NORMALLY COLDER VALLEY LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THERE WILL BE A A RETURN OF SUMMER LIKE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
REGION BEGINNING NEXT WEEK. A DRY...BUT MILD WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW DEVELOPS ON SUNDAY AS WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGINS.

ON MONDAY...MOISTURE FINALLY RETURNS AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT.
INITIALLY...THE LOWER PORTIONS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE VERY DRY.
EXPECT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO MAINLY HOLD OFF UNTIL
THE MONDAY EVENING/MONDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME. HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE
ON THE ACTUAL EXACT TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION ONSET AS THE
MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN CONSISTENT ON THIS FEATURE.

THE FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF OUR AREA AND BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY
DURING THE MIDWEEK PERIOD NEXT WEEK. NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL BE
IN THE WARM SECTOR. THERE WILL BE WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...AND THIS WILL BE MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN AS THERE
REMAINS THE ABSENCE OF ANY SOLID TRIGGERING MECHANISMS FOR
CONVECTION.

THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SAG SOUTH NEXT WEEKEND. THIS SHOULD
TRIGGER MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...WHICH
WILL BE WELL NEEDED PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...NW SFC WND GUSTING TO 25 KT THROUGH 00Z BEFORE
DIMINISHING. W WINDS WILL GUST TO 25 KT DURING THE DAY TOMORROW.

LONG TERM...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY. FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE
EXPECTED MON NIGHT INTO AT LEAST TUE MORNING IN A FEW SHOWERS AND
LOWERING CEILINGS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...FOLLOWING PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS THROUGH LATE TOMORROW.

LONG TERM...WEST WINDS SUNDAY SHIFT TO SW ON MONDAY...AND WILL
GUST TO AROUND 25 KT BOTH DAYS. GUSTY SW WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY AIR MASS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE TODAY. GOOD RELATIVE
HUMIDITY RECOVERY IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT. ON
SATURDAY...MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF 15 TO 25 PERCENT
AND GUSTY WEST WINDS...WILL COMBINE WITH LOW FINE FUEL MOISTURE
VALUES TO CREATE AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ON
SUNDAY MAY RESULT IN AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     MEZ012>014.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR MEZ007>009-012>014-018>028.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     MEZ007>009.
NH...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     NHZ006-008-009-011-015.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR NHZ004-006>015.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     NHZ001>005-007.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KGYX 222344
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
744 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE THIS EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL
APPROACH NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY...AND CROSS THE AREAS MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY....PROVIDING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS.
WARM AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&
23Z UPDATE...
CLOUDS ARE GRADUALLY DRYING UP IN WESTERN MAINE AND CENTRAL NEW
HAMPSHIRE WITH LOSS OF HEATING THIS EVENING. UPPER LEVEL ENERGY
STILL KICKING OFF SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND AND SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL HOLD TOGETHER LONG ENOUGH
TO BRING A FEW SPRINKLES TO SOUTHWEST NEW HAMPSHIRE AND THE
CENTRAL CONNECTICUT VALLEY THROUGH MIDNIGHT. EXPECT MID LEVEL
CLOUDS TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH IN THESE AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT AS
UPPER LOW CONTINUES EASTWARD. WINDS WILL ALSO GRADUALLY DIMINISH
TOWARD MIDNIGHT. ASIDE FROM A FEW TEMP ADJUSTMENTS NO OTHER
CHANGES PLANNED ATTM.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AT 18Z...THE COLD FRONT WAS DRAPED ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN. NWS
RADAR MOSAIC SHOWED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER WERE MAINLY NORTH
AND EAST OF /KPWM/ SITUATED ALONG OR JUST AHEAD OF THE SURFACE
FRONT. THIS ACTIVITY WILL EXIT THE COAST BY EARLY EVENING ALONG
WITH THE FRONT. ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...A FEW POST FRONTAL
UPSLOPE SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY TONIGHT WITH SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE FOR SOME OF THE PEAKS. GIVEN THE MAGNITUDE OF THE COLD
AIRMASS...WE SHOULD GO BELOW FREEZING ACROSS MUCH OF THE CURRENT
WATCH AREA OVERNIGHT EVEN IF WINDS ARE SLOW TO DROP OFF. ADJACENT
TO THE FREEZE WARNING WILL BE AREAS WHERE WE SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH
FOR AREAS OF FROST. OUTSIDE OF THE WARNING/ADVISORY AREAS...ENOUGH
WIND AND BORDERLINE TEMPERATURES TO PRECLUDE ANY WIDESPREAD FROST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
ON SATURDAY...THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD BY TO OUR SOUTH WITH
GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS AND COOL DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM 50S TO LOWER 60S GIVING IT A FALL LIKE FEEL TO THE
START OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. A WEAK FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH INTO
THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A FEW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED MOUNTAIN
SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES. NOT AS COLD AS TONIGHT...BUT EXPECT WE`LL
SEE AT LEAST SOME PATCHY FROST IN THE NORMALLY COLDER VALLEY LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THERE WILL BE A A RETURN OF SUMMER LIKE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
REGION BEGINNING NEXT WEEK. A DRY...BUT MILD WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW DEVELOPS ON SUNDAY AS WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGINS.

ON MONDAY...MOISTURE FINALLY RETURNS AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT.
INITIALLY...THE LOWER PORTIONS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE VERY DRY.
EXPECT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO MAINLY HOLD OFF UNTIL
THE MONDAY EVENING/MONDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME. HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE
ON THE ACTUAL EXACT TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION ONSET AS THE
MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN CONSISTENT ON THIS FEATURE.

THE FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF OUR AREA AND BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY
DURING THE MIDWEEK PERIOD NEXT WEEK. NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL BE
IN THE WARM SECTOR. THERE WILL BE WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...AND THIS WILL BE MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN AS THERE
REMAINS THE ABSENCE OF ANY SOLID TRIGGERING MECHANISMS FOR
CONVECTION.

THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SAG SOUTH NEXT WEEKEND. THIS SHOULD
TRIGGER MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...WHICH
WILL BE WELL NEEDED PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...NW SFC WND GUSTING TO 25 KT THROUGH 00Z BEFORE
DIMINISHING. W WINDS WILL GUST TO 25 KT DURING THE DAY TOMORROW.

LONG TERM...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY. FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE
EXPECTED MON NIGHT INTO AT LEAST TUE MORNING IN A FEW SHOWERS AND
LOWERING CEILINGS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...FOLLOWING PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS THROUGH LATE TOMORROW.

LONG TERM...WEST WINDS SUNDAY SHIFT TO SW ON MONDAY...AND WILL
GUST TO AROUND 25 KT BOTH DAYS. GUSTY SW WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY AIR MASS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE TODAY. GOOD RELATIVE
HUMIDITY RECOVERY IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT. ON
SATURDAY...MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF 15 TO 25 PERCENT
AND GUSTY WEST WINDS...WILL COMBINE WITH LOW FINE FUEL MOISTURE
VALUES TO CREATE AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ON
SUNDAY MAY RESULT IN AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     MEZ012>014.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR MEZ007>009-012>014-018>028.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     MEZ007>009.
NH...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     NHZ006-008-009-011-015.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR NHZ004-006>015.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     NHZ001>005-007.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KGYX 222344
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
744 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE THIS EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL
APPROACH NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY...AND CROSS THE AREAS MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY....PROVIDING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS.
WARM AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&
23Z UPDATE...
CLOUDS ARE GRADUALLY DRYING UP IN WESTERN MAINE AND CENTRAL NEW
HAMPSHIRE WITH LOSS OF HEATING THIS EVENING. UPPER LEVEL ENERGY
STILL KICKING OFF SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND AND SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL HOLD TOGETHER LONG ENOUGH
TO BRING A FEW SPRINKLES TO SOUTHWEST NEW HAMPSHIRE AND THE
CENTRAL CONNECTICUT VALLEY THROUGH MIDNIGHT. EXPECT MID LEVEL
CLOUDS TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH IN THESE AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT AS
UPPER LOW CONTINUES EASTWARD. WINDS WILL ALSO GRADUALLY DIMINISH
TOWARD MIDNIGHT. ASIDE FROM A FEW TEMP ADJUSTMENTS NO OTHER
CHANGES PLANNED ATTM.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AT 18Z...THE COLD FRONT WAS DRAPED ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN. NWS
RADAR MOSAIC SHOWED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER WERE MAINLY NORTH
AND EAST OF /KPWM/ SITUATED ALONG OR JUST AHEAD OF THE SURFACE
FRONT. THIS ACTIVITY WILL EXIT THE COAST BY EARLY EVENING ALONG
WITH THE FRONT. ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...A FEW POST FRONTAL
UPSLOPE SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY TONIGHT WITH SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE FOR SOME OF THE PEAKS. GIVEN THE MAGNITUDE OF THE COLD
AIRMASS...WE SHOULD GO BELOW FREEZING ACROSS MUCH OF THE CURRENT
WATCH AREA OVERNIGHT EVEN IF WINDS ARE SLOW TO DROP OFF. ADJACENT
TO THE FREEZE WARNING WILL BE AREAS WHERE WE SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH
FOR AREAS OF FROST. OUTSIDE OF THE WARNING/ADVISORY AREAS...ENOUGH
WIND AND BORDERLINE TEMPERATURES TO PRECLUDE ANY WIDESPREAD FROST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
ON SATURDAY...THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD BY TO OUR SOUTH WITH
GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS AND COOL DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM 50S TO LOWER 60S GIVING IT A FALL LIKE FEEL TO THE
START OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. A WEAK FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH INTO
THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A FEW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED MOUNTAIN
SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES. NOT AS COLD AS TONIGHT...BUT EXPECT WE`LL
SEE AT LEAST SOME PATCHY FROST IN THE NORMALLY COLDER VALLEY LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THERE WILL BE A A RETURN OF SUMMER LIKE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
REGION BEGINNING NEXT WEEK. A DRY...BUT MILD WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW DEVELOPS ON SUNDAY AS WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGINS.

ON MONDAY...MOISTURE FINALLY RETURNS AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT.
INITIALLY...THE LOWER PORTIONS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE VERY DRY.
EXPECT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO MAINLY HOLD OFF UNTIL
THE MONDAY EVENING/MONDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME. HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE
ON THE ACTUAL EXACT TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION ONSET AS THE
MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN CONSISTENT ON THIS FEATURE.

THE FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF OUR AREA AND BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY
DURING THE MIDWEEK PERIOD NEXT WEEK. NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL BE
IN THE WARM SECTOR. THERE WILL BE WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...AND THIS WILL BE MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN AS THERE
REMAINS THE ABSENCE OF ANY SOLID TRIGGERING MECHANISMS FOR
CONVECTION.

THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SAG SOUTH NEXT WEEKEND. THIS SHOULD
TRIGGER MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...WHICH
WILL BE WELL NEEDED PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...NW SFC WND GUSTING TO 25 KT THROUGH 00Z BEFORE
DIMINISHING. W WINDS WILL GUST TO 25 KT DURING THE DAY TOMORROW.

LONG TERM...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY. FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE
EXPECTED MON NIGHT INTO AT LEAST TUE MORNING IN A FEW SHOWERS AND
LOWERING CEILINGS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...FOLLOWING PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS THROUGH LATE TOMORROW.

LONG TERM...WEST WINDS SUNDAY SHIFT TO SW ON MONDAY...AND WILL
GUST TO AROUND 25 KT BOTH DAYS. GUSTY SW WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY AIR MASS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE TODAY. GOOD RELATIVE
HUMIDITY RECOVERY IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT. ON
SATURDAY...MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF 15 TO 25 PERCENT
AND GUSTY WEST WINDS...WILL COMBINE WITH LOW FINE FUEL MOISTURE
VALUES TO CREATE AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ON
SUNDAY MAY RESULT IN AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     MEZ012>014.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR MEZ007>009-012>014-018>028.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     MEZ007>009.
NH...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     NHZ006-008-009-011-015.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR NHZ004-006>015.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     NHZ001>005-007.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KGYX 222344
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
744 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE THIS EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL
APPROACH NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY...AND CROSS THE AREAS MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY....PROVIDING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS.
WARM AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&
23Z UPDATE...
CLOUDS ARE GRADUALLY DRYING UP IN WESTERN MAINE AND CENTRAL NEW
HAMPSHIRE WITH LOSS OF HEATING THIS EVENING. UPPER LEVEL ENERGY
STILL KICKING OFF SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND AND SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL HOLD TOGETHER LONG ENOUGH
TO BRING A FEW SPRINKLES TO SOUTHWEST NEW HAMPSHIRE AND THE
CENTRAL CONNECTICUT VALLEY THROUGH MIDNIGHT. EXPECT MID LEVEL
CLOUDS TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH IN THESE AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT AS
UPPER LOW CONTINUES EASTWARD. WINDS WILL ALSO GRADUALLY DIMINISH
TOWARD MIDNIGHT. ASIDE FROM A FEW TEMP ADJUSTMENTS NO OTHER
CHANGES PLANNED ATTM.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AT 18Z...THE COLD FRONT WAS DRAPED ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN. NWS
RADAR MOSAIC SHOWED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER WERE MAINLY NORTH
AND EAST OF /KPWM/ SITUATED ALONG OR JUST AHEAD OF THE SURFACE
FRONT. THIS ACTIVITY WILL EXIT THE COAST BY EARLY EVENING ALONG
WITH THE FRONT. ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...A FEW POST FRONTAL
UPSLOPE SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY TONIGHT WITH SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE FOR SOME OF THE PEAKS. GIVEN THE MAGNITUDE OF THE COLD
AIRMASS...WE SHOULD GO BELOW FREEZING ACROSS MUCH OF THE CURRENT
WATCH AREA OVERNIGHT EVEN IF WINDS ARE SLOW TO DROP OFF. ADJACENT
TO THE FREEZE WARNING WILL BE AREAS WHERE WE SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH
FOR AREAS OF FROST. OUTSIDE OF THE WARNING/ADVISORY AREAS...ENOUGH
WIND AND BORDERLINE TEMPERATURES TO PRECLUDE ANY WIDESPREAD FROST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
ON SATURDAY...THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD BY TO OUR SOUTH WITH
GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS AND COOL DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM 50S TO LOWER 60S GIVING IT A FALL LIKE FEEL TO THE
START OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. A WEAK FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH INTO
THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A FEW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED MOUNTAIN
SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES. NOT AS COLD AS TONIGHT...BUT EXPECT WE`LL
SEE AT LEAST SOME PATCHY FROST IN THE NORMALLY COLDER VALLEY LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THERE WILL BE A A RETURN OF SUMMER LIKE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
REGION BEGINNING NEXT WEEK. A DRY...BUT MILD WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW DEVELOPS ON SUNDAY AS WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGINS.

ON MONDAY...MOISTURE FINALLY RETURNS AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT.
INITIALLY...THE LOWER PORTIONS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE VERY DRY.
EXPECT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO MAINLY HOLD OFF UNTIL
THE MONDAY EVENING/MONDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME. HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE
ON THE ACTUAL EXACT TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION ONSET AS THE
MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN CONSISTENT ON THIS FEATURE.

THE FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF OUR AREA AND BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY
DURING THE MIDWEEK PERIOD NEXT WEEK. NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL BE
IN THE WARM SECTOR. THERE WILL BE WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...AND THIS WILL BE MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN AS THERE
REMAINS THE ABSENCE OF ANY SOLID TRIGGERING MECHANISMS FOR
CONVECTION.

THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SAG SOUTH NEXT WEEKEND. THIS SHOULD
TRIGGER MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...WHICH
WILL BE WELL NEEDED PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...NW SFC WND GUSTING TO 25 KT THROUGH 00Z BEFORE
DIMINISHING. W WINDS WILL GUST TO 25 KT DURING THE DAY TOMORROW.

LONG TERM...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY. FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE
EXPECTED MON NIGHT INTO AT LEAST TUE MORNING IN A FEW SHOWERS AND
LOWERING CEILINGS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...FOLLOWING PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS THROUGH LATE TOMORROW.

LONG TERM...WEST WINDS SUNDAY SHIFT TO SW ON MONDAY...AND WILL
GUST TO AROUND 25 KT BOTH DAYS. GUSTY SW WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY AIR MASS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE TODAY. GOOD RELATIVE
HUMIDITY RECOVERY IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT. ON
SATURDAY...MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF 15 TO 25 PERCENT
AND GUSTY WEST WINDS...WILL COMBINE WITH LOW FINE FUEL MOISTURE
VALUES TO CREATE AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ON
SUNDAY MAY RESULT IN AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     MEZ012>014.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR MEZ007>009-012>014-018>028.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     MEZ007>009.
NH...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     NHZ006-008-009-011-015.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR NHZ004-006>015.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     NHZ001>005-007.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KGYX 222344
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
744 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE THIS EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL
APPROACH NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY...AND CROSS THE AREAS MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY....PROVIDING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS.
WARM AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&
23Z UPDATE...
CLOUDS ARE GRADUALLY DRYING UP IN WESTERN MAINE AND CENTRAL NEW
HAMPSHIRE WITH LOSS OF HEATING THIS EVENING. UPPER LEVEL ENERGY
STILL KICKING OFF SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND AND SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL HOLD TOGETHER LONG ENOUGH
TO BRING A FEW SPRINKLES TO SOUTHWEST NEW HAMPSHIRE AND THE
CENTRAL CONNECTICUT VALLEY THROUGH MIDNIGHT. EXPECT MID LEVEL
CLOUDS TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH IN THESE AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT AS
UPPER LOW CONTINUES EASTWARD. WINDS WILL ALSO GRADUALLY DIMINISH
TOWARD MIDNIGHT. ASIDE FROM A FEW TEMP ADJUSTMENTS NO OTHER
CHANGES PLANNED ATTM.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AT 18Z...THE COLD FRONT WAS DRAPED ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN. NWS
RADAR MOSAIC SHOWED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER WERE MAINLY NORTH
AND EAST OF /KPWM/ SITUATED ALONG OR JUST AHEAD OF THE SURFACE
FRONT. THIS ACTIVITY WILL EXIT THE COAST BY EARLY EVENING ALONG
WITH THE FRONT. ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...A FEW POST FRONTAL
UPSLOPE SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY TONIGHT WITH SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE FOR SOME OF THE PEAKS. GIVEN THE MAGNITUDE OF THE COLD
AIRMASS...WE SHOULD GO BELOW FREEZING ACROSS MUCH OF THE CURRENT
WATCH AREA OVERNIGHT EVEN IF WINDS ARE SLOW TO DROP OFF. ADJACENT
TO THE FREEZE WARNING WILL BE AREAS WHERE WE SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH
FOR AREAS OF FROST. OUTSIDE OF THE WARNING/ADVISORY AREAS...ENOUGH
WIND AND BORDERLINE TEMPERATURES TO PRECLUDE ANY WIDESPREAD FROST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
ON SATURDAY...THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD BY TO OUR SOUTH WITH
GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS AND COOL DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM 50S TO LOWER 60S GIVING IT A FALL LIKE FEEL TO THE
START OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. A WEAK FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH INTO
THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A FEW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED MOUNTAIN
SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES. NOT AS COLD AS TONIGHT...BUT EXPECT WE`LL
SEE AT LEAST SOME PATCHY FROST IN THE NORMALLY COLDER VALLEY LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THERE WILL BE A A RETURN OF SUMMER LIKE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
REGION BEGINNING NEXT WEEK. A DRY...BUT MILD WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW DEVELOPS ON SUNDAY AS WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGINS.

ON MONDAY...MOISTURE FINALLY RETURNS AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT.
INITIALLY...THE LOWER PORTIONS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE VERY DRY.
EXPECT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO MAINLY HOLD OFF UNTIL
THE MONDAY EVENING/MONDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME. HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE
ON THE ACTUAL EXACT TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION ONSET AS THE
MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN CONSISTENT ON THIS FEATURE.

THE FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF OUR AREA AND BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY
DURING THE MIDWEEK PERIOD NEXT WEEK. NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL BE
IN THE WARM SECTOR. THERE WILL BE WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...AND THIS WILL BE MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN AS THERE
REMAINS THE ABSENCE OF ANY SOLID TRIGGERING MECHANISMS FOR
CONVECTION.

THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SAG SOUTH NEXT WEEKEND. THIS SHOULD
TRIGGER MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...WHICH
WILL BE WELL NEEDED PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...NW SFC WND GUSTING TO 25 KT THROUGH 00Z BEFORE
DIMINISHING. W WINDS WILL GUST TO 25 KT DURING THE DAY TOMORROW.

LONG TERM...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY. FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE
EXPECTED MON NIGHT INTO AT LEAST TUE MORNING IN A FEW SHOWERS AND
LOWERING CEILINGS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...FOLLOWING PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS THROUGH LATE TOMORROW.

LONG TERM...WEST WINDS SUNDAY SHIFT TO SW ON MONDAY...AND WILL
GUST TO AROUND 25 KT BOTH DAYS. GUSTY SW WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY AIR MASS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE TODAY. GOOD RELATIVE
HUMIDITY RECOVERY IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT. ON
SATURDAY...MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF 15 TO 25 PERCENT
AND GUSTY WEST WINDS...WILL COMBINE WITH LOW FINE FUEL MOISTURE
VALUES TO CREATE AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ON
SUNDAY MAY RESULT IN AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     MEZ012>014.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR MEZ007>009-012>014-018>028.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     MEZ007>009.
NH...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     NHZ006-008-009-011-015.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR NHZ004-006>015.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     NHZ001>005-007.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KCAR 222309
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
709 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED INTO SATURDAY AS AN UPPER LOW
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION FROM CANADA. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY WITH MORE SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
645 PM UPDATE: WE DECIDED TO EXPAND THE FROST ADV A LITTLE FURTHER
S AND E THAN THE ORGNL ISSUANCE...NOT SO MUCH FOR FROST...WHICH
WE THINK THERE WILL BE LITTLE OF DUE TO WIND AND CLD CVR...BUT
MSLY FOR CHILLY OVRNGT LOW TEMPS...WHICH MAY BE LCLY COLDER WHERE
ENOUGH DYNAMIC COOLING OCCURS WHERE SHWRS ASSOCIATED WITH AN ADVCG
UPPER LOW CHG TO SN SHWRS. GIVEN BLENDED MODEL QPF INDICATING UP
TO A TENTH OF AN INCH OF LIQ EQUIV FOR N CNTRL TO E CNTRL PTNS OF
THE FA...WE DO MENTION LCLZD ACCUMULATIONS...SPCLY FOR HI TRRN OVR
THESE PTNS OF THE FA. POPS WERE BROUGHT UP TO LIKELY CATEGORY FOR
VERY LATE TNGT INTO ERLY SAT MORN AS THE UPPER LOW TRACKS SE OVR
NRN/CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA.

ORGNL DISC: A TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
CENTRAL QUEBEC WILL ROTATE THROUGH NORTHERN MAINE OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS NRN MAINE TOMORROW
MORNING...PARTLY CLOUDY ELSEWHERE...WILL BEGIN CLEARING EARLY
TOMORROW MORNING AS THE UPPER LOW MOVE NE INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE
AREA. THE GRADIENT WILL CAUSE INCREASE WINDS WITH GUSTS TO THE LOW
TO MID 30S ACROSS NRN MAINE...MID 20S TO 30 ACROSS THE REST OF THE
AREA. WNDS WILL SUBSIDE TOMORROW EVENING AS THE LOW CONTINUE TO
TRACK NE.

LOADED A BLEND OF NAM/GFS/GEM/ECMWF FOR SKY/POP. CONTINUED WNDS
AND GUSTS FROM PREVIOUS FCST. MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HRLY
T/TD MAX/MIN FROM PREVIOUS FCST. LOADED NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS IN THE
COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FLOW WILL BECOME ZONAL ACROSS THE NORTHEAST DURING THE SHORT
TERM FORECAST PERIOD...RESULTING IN WARMER TEMPS AND ISOLD/SCTD
SHOWERS ACROSS OUR FCST AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SOME WARM WEATHER IS AHEAD FOR NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
OFF THE EAST COAST AND THE STORM TRACK STAYS NORTH ACROSS CANADA.
MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE A MILD NIGHT AS CLOUDS INCREASE AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING WARM FRONT. LOWS WILL ONLY BE IN THE 50S ACROSS THE
AREA. LOW PRESSURE TRACKING THROUGH CENTRAL QUEBEC WILL PULL THE
WARM FRONT INTO THE AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT BRINGING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS LATE AT NIGHT, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH. THE FRONT WILL
QUICKLY PUSH EAST ON TUESDAY. TUESDAY WILL BE A WINDY AND WARM DAY
WITH PARTIAL SUNSHINE AS DRIER AIR CIRCULATES INTO THE AREA. THIS
WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A BREEZY AND WARM NIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT THEN
ANOTHER WINDY AND WARM DAY ON WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER STORM TRACKING
NORTH OF THE AREA MAY BRING SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY SOME
SUNSHINE AND ANOTHER WARM DAY ON THURSDAY. WARM WEATHER WILL LIKELY
LAST INTO FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING TO OUR SOUTH AND A
WARM SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUING.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR ALL SITES AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...INCREASING
CLOUDS WITH SCT SHOWERS ACROSS NRN MAINE. BCMG MVFR IN PCPN
MIDNIGHT THROUGH 8AM AS A TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW MOVE
ACROSS NRN MAINE. OTHERWISE VFR THROUGH TO THE END OF THE PERIOD.

SHORT TERM: SCTD SHOWERS WILL AFFECT NORTHERN AND EASTERN MAIN
THIS WEEKEND...SOME OF WHICH COULD HAVE REDUCED VSBYS AND CIGS
ASSOCIATED WITH THEM. WINDS WILL ALSO BE BREEZY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO EXCEED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVEL FROM EARLY TOMORROW MORNING INTO TOMORROW EVENING.

SHORT TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL PROBABLY BE NEEDED SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS WINDS AND WAVES UNDER RETURN RETURN SWRLY
FLOW.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FINE FUELS ARE DRY...THIS COMBINED WITH THE GUSTY WINDS AND LOW
RH TOMORROW COULD CAUSE FIRES TO RAPIDLY GET OUT OF CONTROL. A RED
FLAG WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 7 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR MEZ002-005-
     006-010-011-031-032.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR MEZ001>006-010-011-015>017-029>032.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...BERDES
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...VJN/BERDES
MARINE...VJN/BERDES
FIRE WEATHER...VJN




000
FXUS61 KCAR 222309
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
709 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED INTO SATURDAY AS AN UPPER LOW
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION FROM CANADA. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY WITH MORE SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
645 PM UPDATE: WE DECIDED TO EXPAND THE FROST ADV A LITTLE FURTHER
S AND E THAN THE ORGNL ISSUANCE...NOT SO MUCH FOR FROST...WHICH
WE THINK THERE WILL BE LITTLE OF DUE TO WIND AND CLD CVR...BUT
MSLY FOR CHILLY OVRNGT LOW TEMPS...WHICH MAY BE LCLY COLDER WHERE
ENOUGH DYNAMIC COOLING OCCURS WHERE SHWRS ASSOCIATED WITH AN ADVCG
UPPER LOW CHG TO SN SHWRS. GIVEN BLENDED MODEL QPF INDICATING UP
TO A TENTH OF AN INCH OF LIQ EQUIV FOR N CNTRL TO E CNTRL PTNS OF
THE FA...WE DO MENTION LCLZD ACCUMULATIONS...SPCLY FOR HI TRRN OVR
THESE PTNS OF THE FA. POPS WERE BROUGHT UP TO LIKELY CATEGORY FOR
VERY LATE TNGT INTO ERLY SAT MORN AS THE UPPER LOW TRACKS SE OVR
NRN/CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA.

ORGNL DISC: A TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
CENTRAL QUEBEC WILL ROTATE THROUGH NORTHERN MAINE OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS NRN MAINE TOMORROW
MORNING...PARTLY CLOUDY ELSEWHERE...WILL BEGIN CLEARING EARLY
TOMORROW MORNING AS THE UPPER LOW MOVE NE INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE
AREA. THE GRADIENT WILL CAUSE INCREASE WINDS WITH GUSTS TO THE LOW
TO MID 30S ACROSS NRN MAINE...MID 20S TO 30 ACROSS THE REST OF THE
AREA. WNDS WILL SUBSIDE TOMORROW EVENING AS THE LOW CONTINUE TO
TRACK NE.

LOADED A BLEND OF NAM/GFS/GEM/ECMWF FOR SKY/POP. CONTINUED WNDS
AND GUSTS FROM PREVIOUS FCST. MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HRLY
T/TD MAX/MIN FROM PREVIOUS FCST. LOADED NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS IN THE
COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FLOW WILL BECOME ZONAL ACROSS THE NORTHEAST DURING THE SHORT
TERM FORECAST PERIOD...RESULTING IN WARMER TEMPS AND ISOLD/SCTD
SHOWERS ACROSS OUR FCST AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SOME WARM WEATHER IS AHEAD FOR NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
OFF THE EAST COAST AND THE STORM TRACK STAYS NORTH ACROSS CANADA.
MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE A MILD NIGHT AS CLOUDS INCREASE AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING WARM FRONT. LOWS WILL ONLY BE IN THE 50S ACROSS THE
AREA. LOW PRESSURE TRACKING THROUGH CENTRAL QUEBEC WILL PULL THE
WARM FRONT INTO THE AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT BRINGING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS LATE AT NIGHT, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH. THE FRONT WILL
QUICKLY PUSH EAST ON TUESDAY. TUESDAY WILL BE A WINDY AND WARM DAY
WITH PARTIAL SUNSHINE AS DRIER AIR CIRCULATES INTO THE AREA. THIS
WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A BREEZY AND WARM NIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT THEN
ANOTHER WINDY AND WARM DAY ON WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER STORM TRACKING
NORTH OF THE AREA MAY BRING SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY SOME
SUNSHINE AND ANOTHER WARM DAY ON THURSDAY. WARM WEATHER WILL LIKELY
LAST INTO FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING TO OUR SOUTH AND A
WARM SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUING.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR ALL SITES AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...INCREASING
CLOUDS WITH SCT SHOWERS ACROSS NRN MAINE. BCMG MVFR IN PCPN
MIDNIGHT THROUGH 8AM AS A TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW MOVE
ACROSS NRN MAINE. OTHERWISE VFR THROUGH TO THE END OF THE PERIOD.

SHORT TERM: SCTD SHOWERS WILL AFFECT NORTHERN AND EASTERN MAIN
THIS WEEKEND...SOME OF WHICH COULD HAVE REDUCED VSBYS AND CIGS
ASSOCIATED WITH THEM. WINDS WILL ALSO BE BREEZY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO EXCEED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVEL FROM EARLY TOMORROW MORNING INTO TOMORROW EVENING.

SHORT TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL PROBABLY BE NEEDED SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS WINDS AND WAVES UNDER RETURN RETURN SWRLY
FLOW.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FINE FUELS ARE DRY...THIS COMBINED WITH THE GUSTY WINDS AND LOW
RH TOMORROW COULD CAUSE FIRES TO RAPIDLY GET OUT OF CONTROL. A RED
FLAG WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 7 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR MEZ002-005-
     006-010-011-031-032.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR MEZ001>006-010-011-015>017-029>032.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...BERDES
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...VJN/BERDES
MARINE...VJN/BERDES
FIRE WEATHER...VJN




000
FXUS61 KCAR 222309
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
709 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED INTO SATURDAY AS AN UPPER LOW
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION FROM CANADA. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY WITH MORE SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
645 PM UPDATE: WE DECIDED TO EXPAND THE FROST ADV A LITTLE FURTHER
S AND E THAN THE ORGNL ISSUANCE...NOT SO MUCH FOR FROST...WHICH
WE THINK THERE WILL BE LITTLE OF DUE TO WIND AND CLD CVR...BUT
MSLY FOR CHILLY OVRNGT LOW TEMPS...WHICH MAY BE LCLY COLDER WHERE
ENOUGH DYNAMIC COOLING OCCURS WHERE SHWRS ASSOCIATED WITH AN ADVCG
UPPER LOW CHG TO SN SHWRS. GIVEN BLENDED MODEL QPF INDICATING UP
TO A TENTH OF AN INCH OF LIQ EQUIV FOR N CNTRL TO E CNTRL PTNS OF
THE FA...WE DO MENTION LCLZD ACCUMULATIONS...SPCLY FOR HI TRRN OVR
THESE PTNS OF THE FA. POPS WERE BROUGHT UP TO LIKELY CATEGORY FOR
VERY LATE TNGT INTO ERLY SAT MORN AS THE UPPER LOW TRACKS SE OVR
NRN/CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA.

ORGNL DISC: A TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
CENTRAL QUEBEC WILL ROTATE THROUGH NORTHERN MAINE OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS NRN MAINE TOMORROW
MORNING...PARTLY CLOUDY ELSEWHERE...WILL BEGIN CLEARING EARLY
TOMORROW MORNING AS THE UPPER LOW MOVE NE INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE
AREA. THE GRADIENT WILL CAUSE INCREASE WINDS WITH GUSTS TO THE LOW
TO MID 30S ACROSS NRN MAINE...MID 20S TO 30 ACROSS THE REST OF THE
AREA. WNDS WILL SUBSIDE TOMORROW EVENING AS THE LOW CONTINUE TO
TRACK NE.

LOADED A BLEND OF NAM/GFS/GEM/ECMWF FOR SKY/POP. CONTINUED WNDS
AND GUSTS FROM PREVIOUS FCST. MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HRLY
T/TD MAX/MIN FROM PREVIOUS FCST. LOADED NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS IN THE
COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FLOW WILL BECOME ZONAL ACROSS THE NORTHEAST DURING THE SHORT
TERM FORECAST PERIOD...RESULTING IN WARMER TEMPS AND ISOLD/SCTD
SHOWERS ACROSS OUR FCST AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SOME WARM WEATHER IS AHEAD FOR NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
OFF THE EAST COAST AND THE STORM TRACK STAYS NORTH ACROSS CANADA.
MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE A MILD NIGHT AS CLOUDS INCREASE AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING WARM FRONT. LOWS WILL ONLY BE IN THE 50S ACROSS THE
AREA. LOW PRESSURE TRACKING THROUGH CENTRAL QUEBEC WILL PULL THE
WARM FRONT INTO THE AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT BRINGING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS LATE AT NIGHT, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH. THE FRONT WILL
QUICKLY PUSH EAST ON TUESDAY. TUESDAY WILL BE A WINDY AND WARM DAY
WITH PARTIAL SUNSHINE AS DRIER AIR CIRCULATES INTO THE AREA. THIS
WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A BREEZY AND WARM NIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT THEN
ANOTHER WINDY AND WARM DAY ON WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER STORM TRACKING
NORTH OF THE AREA MAY BRING SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY SOME
SUNSHINE AND ANOTHER WARM DAY ON THURSDAY. WARM WEATHER WILL LIKELY
LAST INTO FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING TO OUR SOUTH AND A
WARM SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUING.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR ALL SITES AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...INCREASING
CLOUDS WITH SCT SHOWERS ACROSS NRN MAINE. BCMG MVFR IN PCPN
MIDNIGHT THROUGH 8AM AS A TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW MOVE
ACROSS NRN MAINE. OTHERWISE VFR THROUGH TO THE END OF THE PERIOD.

SHORT TERM: SCTD SHOWERS WILL AFFECT NORTHERN AND EASTERN MAIN
THIS WEEKEND...SOME OF WHICH COULD HAVE REDUCED VSBYS AND CIGS
ASSOCIATED WITH THEM. WINDS WILL ALSO BE BREEZY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO EXCEED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVEL FROM EARLY TOMORROW MORNING INTO TOMORROW EVENING.

SHORT TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL PROBABLY BE NEEDED SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS WINDS AND WAVES UNDER RETURN RETURN SWRLY
FLOW.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FINE FUELS ARE DRY...THIS COMBINED WITH THE GUSTY WINDS AND LOW
RH TOMORROW COULD CAUSE FIRES TO RAPIDLY GET OUT OF CONTROL. A RED
FLAG WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 7 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR MEZ002-005-
     006-010-011-031-032.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR MEZ001>006-010-011-015>017-029>032.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...BERDES
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...VJN/BERDES
MARINE...VJN/BERDES
FIRE WEATHER...VJN



000
FXUS61 KCAR 222309
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
709 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED INTO SATURDAY AS AN UPPER LOW
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION FROM CANADA. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY WITH MORE SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
645 PM UPDATE: WE DECIDED TO EXPAND THE FROST ADV A LITTLE FURTHER
S AND E THAN THE ORGNL ISSUANCE...NOT SO MUCH FOR FROST...WHICH
WE THINK THERE WILL BE LITTLE OF DUE TO WIND AND CLD CVR...BUT
MSLY FOR CHILLY OVRNGT LOW TEMPS...WHICH MAY BE LCLY COLDER WHERE
ENOUGH DYNAMIC COOLING OCCURS WHERE SHWRS ASSOCIATED WITH AN ADVCG
UPPER LOW CHG TO SN SHWRS. GIVEN BLENDED MODEL QPF INDICATING UP
TO A TENTH OF AN INCH OF LIQ EQUIV FOR N CNTRL TO E CNTRL PTNS OF
THE FA...WE DO MENTION LCLZD ACCUMULATIONS...SPCLY FOR HI TRRN OVR
THESE PTNS OF THE FA. POPS WERE BROUGHT UP TO LIKELY CATEGORY FOR
VERY LATE TNGT INTO ERLY SAT MORN AS THE UPPER LOW TRACKS SE OVR
NRN/CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA.

ORGNL DISC: A TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
CENTRAL QUEBEC WILL ROTATE THROUGH NORTHERN MAINE OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS NRN MAINE TOMORROW
MORNING...PARTLY CLOUDY ELSEWHERE...WILL BEGIN CLEARING EARLY
TOMORROW MORNING AS THE UPPER LOW MOVE NE INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE
AREA. THE GRADIENT WILL CAUSE INCREASE WINDS WITH GUSTS TO THE LOW
TO MID 30S ACROSS NRN MAINE...MID 20S TO 30 ACROSS THE REST OF THE
AREA. WNDS WILL SUBSIDE TOMORROW EVENING AS THE LOW CONTINUE TO
TRACK NE.

LOADED A BLEND OF NAM/GFS/GEM/ECMWF FOR SKY/POP. CONTINUED WNDS
AND GUSTS FROM PREVIOUS FCST. MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HRLY
T/TD MAX/MIN FROM PREVIOUS FCST. LOADED NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS IN THE
COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FLOW WILL BECOME ZONAL ACROSS THE NORTHEAST DURING THE SHORT
TERM FORECAST PERIOD...RESULTING IN WARMER TEMPS AND ISOLD/SCTD
SHOWERS ACROSS OUR FCST AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SOME WARM WEATHER IS AHEAD FOR NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
OFF THE EAST COAST AND THE STORM TRACK STAYS NORTH ACROSS CANADA.
MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE A MILD NIGHT AS CLOUDS INCREASE AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING WARM FRONT. LOWS WILL ONLY BE IN THE 50S ACROSS THE
AREA. LOW PRESSURE TRACKING THROUGH CENTRAL QUEBEC WILL PULL THE
WARM FRONT INTO THE AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT BRINGING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS LATE AT NIGHT, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH. THE FRONT WILL
QUICKLY PUSH EAST ON TUESDAY. TUESDAY WILL BE A WINDY AND WARM DAY
WITH PARTIAL SUNSHINE AS DRIER AIR CIRCULATES INTO THE AREA. THIS
WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A BREEZY AND WARM NIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT THEN
ANOTHER WINDY AND WARM DAY ON WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER STORM TRACKING
NORTH OF THE AREA MAY BRING SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY SOME
SUNSHINE AND ANOTHER WARM DAY ON THURSDAY. WARM WEATHER WILL LIKELY
LAST INTO FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING TO OUR SOUTH AND A
WARM SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUING.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR ALL SITES AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...INCREASING
CLOUDS WITH SCT SHOWERS ACROSS NRN MAINE. BCMG MVFR IN PCPN
MIDNIGHT THROUGH 8AM AS A TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW MOVE
ACROSS NRN MAINE. OTHERWISE VFR THROUGH TO THE END OF THE PERIOD.

SHORT TERM: SCTD SHOWERS WILL AFFECT NORTHERN AND EASTERN MAIN
THIS WEEKEND...SOME OF WHICH COULD HAVE REDUCED VSBYS AND CIGS
ASSOCIATED WITH THEM. WINDS WILL ALSO BE BREEZY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO EXCEED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVEL FROM EARLY TOMORROW MORNING INTO TOMORROW EVENING.

SHORT TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL PROBABLY BE NEEDED SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS WINDS AND WAVES UNDER RETURN RETURN SWRLY
FLOW.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FINE FUELS ARE DRY...THIS COMBINED WITH THE GUSTY WINDS AND LOW
RH TOMORROW COULD CAUSE FIRES TO RAPIDLY GET OUT OF CONTROL. A RED
FLAG WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 7 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR MEZ002-005-
     006-010-011-031-032.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR MEZ001>006-010-011-015>017-029>032.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...BERDES
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...VJN/BERDES
MARINE...VJN/BERDES
FIRE WEATHER...VJN



000
FXUS61 KCAR 221843
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
243 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED INTO SATURDAY AS AN UPPER LOW
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION FROM CANADA. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY WITH MORE SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER CENTRAL QUEBEC
WILL ROTATE THROUGH NORTHERN MAINE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS NRN MAINE TOMORROW MORNING...PARTLY CLOUDY
ELSEWHERE...WILL BEGIN CLEARING EARLY TOMORROW MORNING AS THE
UPPER LOW MOVE NE INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. A HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE AREA. THE GRADIENT WILL CAUSE
INCREASE WINDS WITH GUSTS TO THE LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS NRN
MAINE...MID 20S TO 30 ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA. WNDS WILL
SUBSIDE TOMORROW EVENING AS THE LOW CONTINUE TO TRACK NE.

LOADED A BLEND OF NAM/GFS/GEM/ECMWF FOR SKY/POP. CONTINUED WNDS
AND GUSTS FROM PREVIOUS FCST. MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HRLY
T/TD MAX/MIN FROM PREVIOUS FCST. LOADED NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS IN THE
COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FLOW WILL BECOME ZONAL ACROSS THE NORTHEAST DURING THE SHORT
TERM FORECAST PERIOD...RESULTING IN WARMER TEMPS AND ISOLD/SCTD
SHOWERS ACROSS OUR FCST AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SOME WARM WEATHER IS AHEAD FOR NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
OFF THE EAST COAST AND THE STORM TRACK STAYS NORTH ACROSS CANADA.
MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE A MILD NIGHT AS CLOUDS INCREASE AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING WARM FRONT. LOWS WILL ONLY BE IN THE 50S ACROSS THE
AREA. LOW PRESSURE TRACKING THROUGH CENTRAL QUEBEC WILL PULL THE
WARM FRONT INTO THE AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT BRINGING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS LATE AT NIGHT, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH. THE FRONT WILL
QUICKLY PUSH EAST ON TUESDAY. TUESDAY WILL BE A WINDY AND WARM DAY
WITH PARTIAL SUNSHINE AS DRIER AIR CIRCULATES INTO THE AREA. THIS
WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A BREEZY AND WARM NIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT THEN
ANOTHER WINDY AND WARM DAY ON WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER STORM TRACKING
NORTH OF THE AREA MAY BRING SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY SOME
SUNSHINE AND ANOTHER WARM DAY ON THURSDAY. WARM WEATHER WILL LIKELY
LAST INTO FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING TO OUR SOUTH AND A
WARM SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUING.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR ALL SITES AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...INCREASING
CLOUDS WITH SCT SHOWERS ACROSS NRN MAINE. BCMG MVFR IN PCPN
MIDNIGHT THROUGH 8AM AS A TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW MOVE
ACROSS NRN MAINE. OTHERWISE VFR THROUGH TO THE END OF THE PERIOD.

SHORT TERM: SCTD SHOWERS WILL AFFECT NORTHERN AND EASTERN MAIN
THIS WEEKEND...SOME OF WHICH COULD HAVE REDUCED VSBYS AND CIGS
ASSOCIATED WITH THEM. WINDS WILL ALSO BE BREEZY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO EXCEED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVEL FROM EARLY TOMORROW MORNING INTO TOMORROW EVENING.

SHORT TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL PROBABLY BE NEEDED SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS WINDS AND WAVES UNDER RETURN RETURN SWRLY
FLOW.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FINE FUELS ARE DRY...THIS COMBINED WITH THE GUSTY WINDS AND LOW
RH TOMORROW COULD CAUSE FIRES TO RAPIDLY GET OUT OF CONTROL. A RED
FLAG WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FROST ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 7 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR MEZ002-005-
     010.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR MEZ001>006-010-011-015>017-029>032.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO NOON EDT SATURDAY FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...NORTON
SHORT TERM...BERDES
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...NORTON/BERDES
MARINE...NORTON/BERDES
FIRE WEATHER...NORTON



000
FXUS61 KCAR 221843
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
243 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED INTO SATURDAY AS AN UPPER LOW
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION FROM CANADA. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY WITH MORE SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER CENTRAL QUEBEC
WILL ROTATE THROUGH NORTHERN MAINE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS NRN MAINE TOMORROW MORNING...PARTLY CLOUDY
ELSEWHERE...WILL BEGIN CLEARING EARLY TOMORROW MORNING AS THE
UPPER LOW MOVE NE INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. A HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE AREA. THE GRADIENT WILL CAUSE
INCREASE WINDS WITH GUSTS TO THE LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS NRN
MAINE...MID 20S TO 30 ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA. WNDS WILL
SUBSIDE TOMORROW EVENING AS THE LOW CONTINUE TO TRACK NE.

LOADED A BLEND OF NAM/GFS/GEM/ECMWF FOR SKY/POP. CONTINUED WNDS
AND GUSTS FROM PREVIOUS FCST. MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HRLY
T/TD MAX/MIN FROM PREVIOUS FCST. LOADED NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS IN THE
COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FLOW WILL BECOME ZONAL ACROSS THE NORTHEAST DURING THE SHORT
TERM FORECAST PERIOD...RESULTING IN WARMER TEMPS AND ISOLD/SCTD
SHOWERS ACROSS OUR FCST AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SOME WARM WEATHER IS AHEAD FOR NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
OFF THE EAST COAST AND THE STORM TRACK STAYS NORTH ACROSS CANADA.
MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE A MILD NIGHT AS CLOUDS INCREASE AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING WARM FRONT. LOWS WILL ONLY BE IN THE 50S ACROSS THE
AREA. LOW PRESSURE TRACKING THROUGH CENTRAL QUEBEC WILL PULL THE
WARM FRONT INTO THE AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT BRINGING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS LATE AT NIGHT, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH. THE FRONT WILL
QUICKLY PUSH EAST ON TUESDAY. TUESDAY WILL BE A WINDY AND WARM DAY
WITH PARTIAL SUNSHINE AS DRIER AIR CIRCULATES INTO THE AREA. THIS
WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A BREEZY AND WARM NIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT THEN
ANOTHER WINDY AND WARM DAY ON WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER STORM TRACKING
NORTH OF THE AREA MAY BRING SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY SOME
SUNSHINE AND ANOTHER WARM DAY ON THURSDAY. WARM WEATHER WILL LIKELY
LAST INTO FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING TO OUR SOUTH AND A
WARM SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUING.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR ALL SITES AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...INCREASING
CLOUDS WITH SCT SHOWERS ACROSS NRN MAINE. BCMG MVFR IN PCPN
MIDNIGHT THROUGH 8AM AS A TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW MOVE
ACROSS NRN MAINE. OTHERWISE VFR THROUGH TO THE END OF THE PERIOD.

SHORT TERM: SCTD SHOWERS WILL AFFECT NORTHERN AND EASTERN MAIN
THIS WEEKEND...SOME OF WHICH COULD HAVE REDUCED VSBYS AND CIGS
ASSOCIATED WITH THEM. WINDS WILL ALSO BE BREEZY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO EXCEED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVEL FROM EARLY TOMORROW MORNING INTO TOMORROW EVENING.

SHORT TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL PROBABLY BE NEEDED SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS WINDS AND WAVES UNDER RETURN RETURN SWRLY
FLOW.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FINE FUELS ARE DRY...THIS COMBINED WITH THE GUSTY WINDS AND LOW
RH TOMORROW COULD CAUSE FIRES TO RAPIDLY GET OUT OF CONTROL. A RED
FLAG WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FROST ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 7 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR MEZ002-005-
     010.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR MEZ001>006-010-011-015>017-029>032.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO NOON EDT SATURDAY FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...NORTON
SHORT TERM...BERDES
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...NORTON/BERDES
MARINE...NORTON/BERDES
FIRE WEATHER...NORTON




000
FXUS61 KGYX 221833
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
233 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE THIS EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL
APPROACH NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY...AND CROSS THE AREAS MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY....PROVIDING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS.
WARM AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AT 18Z...THE COLD FRONT WAS DRAPED ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN. NWS
RADAR MOSAIC SHOWED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER WERE MAINLY NORTH
AND EAST OF /KPWM/ SITUATED ALONG OR JUST AHEAD OF THE SURFACE
FRONT. THIS ACTIVITY WILL EXIT THE COAST BY EARLY EVENING ALONG
WITH THE FRONT. ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...A FEW POST FRONTAL
UPSLOPE SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY TONIGHT WITH SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE FOR SOME OF THE PEAKS. GIVEN THE MAGNITUDE OF THE COLD
AIRMASS...WE SHOULD GO BELOW FREEZING ACROSS MUCH OF THE CURRENT
WATCH AREA OVERNIGHT EVEN IF WINDS ARE SLOW TO DROP OFF. ADJACENT
TO THE FREEZE WARNING WILL BE AREAS WHERE WE SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH
FOR AREAS OF FROST. OUTSIDE OF THE WARNING/ADVISORY AREAS...ENOUGH
WIND AND BORDERLINE TEMPERATURES TO PRECLUDE ANY WIDESPREAD FROST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
ON SATURDAY...THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD BY TO OUR SOUTH WITH
GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS AND COOL DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM 50S TO LOWER 60S GIVING IT A FALL LIKE FEEL TO THE
START OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. A WEAK FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH INTO
THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A FEW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED MOUNTAIN
SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES. NOT AS COLD AS TONIGHT...BUT EXPECT WE`LL
SEE AT LEAST SOME PATCHY FROST IN THE NORMALLY COLDER VALLEY LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THERE WILL BE A A RETURN OF SUMMER LIKE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
REGION BEGINNING NEXT WEEK. A DRY...BUT MILD WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW DEVELOPS ON SUNDAY AS WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGINS.

ON MONDAY...MOISTURE FINALLY RETURNS AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT.
INITIALLY...THE LOWER PORTIONS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE VERY DRY.
EXPECT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO MAINLY HOLD OFF UNTIL
THE MONDAY EVENING/MONDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME. HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE
ON THE ACTUAL EXACT TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION ONSET AS THE
MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN CONSISTENT ON THIS FEATURE.

THE FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF OUR AREA AND BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY
DURING THE MIDWEEK PERIOD NEXT WEEK. NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL BE
IN THE WARM SECTOR. THERE WILL BE WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...AND THIS WILL BE MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN AS THERE
REMAINS THE ABSENCE OF ANY SOLID TRIGGERING MECHANISMS FOR
CONVECTION.

THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SAG SOUTH NEXT WEEKEND. THIS SHOULD
TRIGGER MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...WHICH
WILL BE WELL NEEDED PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...NW SFC WND GUSTING TO 25 KT THROUGH 00Z BEFORE
DIMINISHING. W WINDS WILL GUST TO 25 KT DURING THE DAY TOMORROW.

LONG TERM...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY. FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE
EXPECTED MON NIGHT INTO AT LEAST TUE MORNING IN A FEW SHOWERS AND
LOWERING CEILINGS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...FOLLOWING PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS THROUGH LATE TOMORROW.

LONG TERM...WEST WINDS SUNDAY SHIFT TO SW ON MONDAY...AND WILL
GUST TO AROUND 25 KT BOTH DAYS. GUSTY SW WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY AIR MASS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE TODAY. GOOD RELATIVE
HUMIDITY RECOVERY IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT. ON
SATURDAY...MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF 15 TO 25 PERCENT
AND GUSTY WEST WINDS...WILL COMBINE WITH LOW FINE FUEL MOISTURE
VALUES TO CREATE AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ON
SUNDAY MAY RESULT IN AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     MEZ012>014.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR MEZ007>009-012>014-018>028.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     MEZ007>009.
NH...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     NHZ006-008-009-011-015.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR NHZ004-006>015.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     NHZ001>005-007.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KGYX 221833
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
233 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE THIS EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL
APPROACH NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY...AND CROSS THE AREAS MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY....PROVIDING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS.
WARM AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AT 18Z...THE COLD FRONT WAS DRAPED ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN. NWS
RADAR MOSAIC SHOWED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER WERE MAINLY NORTH
AND EAST OF /KPWM/ SITUATED ALONG OR JUST AHEAD OF THE SURFACE
FRONT. THIS ACTIVITY WILL EXIT THE COAST BY EARLY EVENING ALONG
WITH THE FRONT. ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...A FEW POST FRONTAL
UPSLOPE SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY TONIGHT WITH SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE FOR SOME OF THE PEAKS. GIVEN THE MAGNITUDE OF THE COLD
AIRMASS...WE SHOULD GO BELOW FREEZING ACROSS MUCH OF THE CURRENT
WATCH AREA OVERNIGHT EVEN IF WINDS ARE SLOW TO DROP OFF. ADJACENT
TO THE FREEZE WARNING WILL BE AREAS WHERE WE SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH
FOR AREAS OF FROST. OUTSIDE OF THE WARNING/ADVISORY AREAS...ENOUGH
WIND AND BORDERLINE TEMPERATURES TO PRECLUDE ANY WIDESPREAD FROST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
ON SATURDAY...THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD BY TO OUR SOUTH WITH
GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS AND COOL DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM 50S TO LOWER 60S GIVING IT A FALL LIKE FEEL TO THE
START OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. A WEAK FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH INTO
THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A FEW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED MOUNTAIN
SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES. NOT AS COLD AS TONIGHT...BUT EXPECT WE`LL
SEE AT LEAST SOME PATCHY FROST IN THE NORMALLY COLDER VALLEY LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THERE WILL BE A A RETURN OF SUMMER LIKE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
REGION BEGINNING NEXT WEEK. A DRY...BUT MILD WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW DEVELOPS ON SUNDAY AS WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGINS.

ON MONDAY...MOISTURE FINALLY RETURNS AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT.
INITIALLY...THE LOWER PORTIONS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE VERY DRY.
EXPECT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO MAINLY HOLD OFF UNTIL
THE MONDAY EVENING/MONDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME. HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE
ON THE ACTUAL EXACT TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION ONSET AS THE
MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN CONSISTENT ON THIS FEATURE.

THE FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF OUR AREA AND BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY
DURING THE MIDWEEK PERIOD NEXT WEEK. NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL BE
IN THE WARM SECTOR. THERE WILL BE WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...AND THIS WILL BE MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN AS THERE
REMAINS THE ABSENCE OF ANY SOLID TRIGGERING MECHANISMS FOR
CONVECTION.

THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SAG SOUTH NEXT WEEKEND. THIS SHOULD
TRIGGER MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...WHICH
WILL BE WELL NEEDED PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...NW SFC WND GUSTING TO 25 KT THROUGH 00Z BEFORE
DIMINISHING. W WINDS WILL GUST TO 25 KT DURING THE DAY TOMORROW.

LONG TERM...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY. FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE
EXPECTED MON NIGHT INTO AT LEAST TUE MORNING IN A FEW SHOWERS AND
LOWERING CEILINGS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...FOLLOWING PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS THROUGH LATE TOMORROW.

LONG TERM...WEST WINDS SUNDAY SHIFT TO SW ON MONDAY...AND WILL
GUST TO AROUND 25 KT BOTH DAYS. GUSTY SW WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY AIR MASS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE TODAY. GOOD RELATIVE
HUMIDITY RECOVERY IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT. ON
SATURDAY...MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF 15 TO 25 PERCENT
AND GUSTY WEST WINDS...WILL COMBINE WITH LOW FINE FUEL MOISTURE
VALUES TO CREATE AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ON
SUNDAY MAY RESULT IN AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     MEZ012>014.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR MEZ007>009-012>014-018>028.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     MEZ007>009.
NH...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     NHZ006-008-009-011-015.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR NHZ004-006>015.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     NHZ001>005-007.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KGYX 221833
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
233 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE THIS EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL
APPROACH NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY...AND CROSS THE AREAS MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY....PROVIDING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS.
WARM AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AT 18Z...THE COLD FRONT WAS DRAPED ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN. NWS
RADAR MOSAIC SHOWED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER WERE MAINLY NORTH
AND EAST OF /KPWM/ SITUATED ALONG OR JUST AHEAD OF THE SURFACE
FRONT. THIS ACTIVITY WILL EXIT THE COAST BY EARLY EVENING ALONG
WITH THE FRONT. ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...A FEW POST FRONTAL
UPSLOPE SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY TONIGHT WITH SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE FOR SOME OF THE PEAKS. GIVEN THE MAGNITUDE OF THE COLD
AIRMASS...WE SHOULD GO BELOW FREEZING ACROSS MUCH OF THE CURRENT
WATCH AREA OVERNIGHT EVEN IF WINDS ARE SLOW TO DROP OFF. ADJACENT
TO THE FREEZE WARNING WILL BE AREAS WHERE WE SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH
FOR AREAS OF FROST. OUTSIDE OF THE WARNING/ADVISORY AREAS...ENOUGH
WIND AND BORDERLINE TEMPERATURES TO PRECLUDE ANY WIDESPREAD FROST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
ON SATURDAY...THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD BY TO OUR SOUTH WITH
GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS AND COOL DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM 50S TO LOWER 60S GIVING IT A FALL LIKE FEEL TO THE
START OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. A WEAK FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH INTO
THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A FEW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED MOUNTAIN
SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES. NOT AS COLD AS TONIGHT...BUT EXPECT WE`LL
SEE AT LEAST SOME PATCHY FROST IN THE NORMALLY COLDER VALLEY LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THERE WILL BE A A RETURN OF SUMMER LIKE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
REGION BEGINNING NEXT WEEK. A DRY...BUT MILD WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW DEVELOPS ON SUNDAY AS WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGINS.

ON MONDAY...MOISTURE FINALLY RETURNS AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT.
INITIALLY...THE LOWER PORTIONS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE VERY DRY.
EXPECT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO MAINLY HOLD OFF UNTIL
THE MONDAY EVENING/MONDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME. HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE
ON THE ACTUAL EXACT TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION ONSET AS THE
MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN CONSISTENT ON THIS FEATURE.

THE FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF OUR AREA AND BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY
DURING THE MIDWEEK PERIOD NEXT WEEK. NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL BE
IN THE WARM SECTOR. THERE WILL BE WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...AND THIS WILL BE MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN AS THERE
REMAINS THE ABSENCE OF ANY SOLID TRIGGERING MECHANISMS FOR
CONVECTION.

THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SAG SOUTH NEXT WEEKEND. THIS SHOULD
TRIGGER MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...WHICH
WILL BE WELL NEEDED PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...NW SFC WND GUSTING TO 25 KT THROUGH 00Z BEFORE
DIMINISHING. W WINDS WILL GUST TO 25 KT DURING THE DAY TOMORROW.

LONG TERM...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY. FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE
EXPECTED MON NIGHT INTO AT LEAST TUE MORNING IN A FEW SHOWERS AND
LOWERING CEILINGS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...FOLLOWING PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS THROUGH LATE TOMORROW.

LONG TERM...WEST WINDS SUNDAY SHIFT TO SW ON MONDAY...AND WILL
GUST TO AROUND 25 KT BOTH DAYS. GUSTY SW WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY AIR MASS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE TODAY. GOOD RELATIVE
HUMIDITY RECOVERY IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT. ON
SATURDAY...MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF 15 TO 25 PERCENT
AND GUSTY WEST WINDS...WILL COMBINE WITH LOW FINE FUEL MOISTURE
VALUES TO CREATE AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ON
SUNDAY MAY RESULT IN AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     MEZ012>014.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR MEZ007>009-012>014-018>028.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     MEZ007>009.
NH...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     NHZ006-008-009-011-015.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR NHZ004-006>015.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     NHZ001>005-007.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KGYX 221833
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
233 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE THIS EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL
APPROACH NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY...AND CROSS THE AREAS MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY....PROVIDING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS.
WARM AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AT 18Z...THE COLD FRONT WAS DRAPED ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN. NWS
RADAR MOSAIC SHOWED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER WERE MAINLY NORTH
AND EAST OF /KPWM/ SITUATED ALONG OR JUST AHEAD OF THE SURFACE
FRONT. THIS ACTIVITY WILL EXIT THE COAST BY EARLY EVENING ALONG
WITH THE FRONT. ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...A FEW POST FRONTAL
UPSLOPE SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY TONIGHT WITH SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE FOR SOME OF THE PEAKS. GIVEN THE MAGNITUDE OF THE COLD
AIRMASS...WE SHOULD GO BELOW FREEZING ACROSS MUCH OF THE CURRENT
WATCH AREA OVERNIGHT EVEN IF WINDS ARE SLOW TO DROP OFF. ADJACENT
TO THE FREEZE WARNING WILL BE AREAS WHERE WE SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH
FOR AREAS OF FROST. OUTSIDE OF THE WARNING/ADVISORY AREAS...ENOUGH
WIND AND BORDERLINE TEMPERATURES TO PRECLUDE ANY WIDESPREAD FROST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
ON SATURDAY...THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD BY TO OUR SOUTH WITH
GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS AND COOL DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM 50S TO LOWER 60S GIVING IT A FALL LIKE FEEL TO THE
START OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. A WEAK FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH INTO
THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A FEW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED MOUNTAIN
SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES. NOT AS COLD AS TONIGHT...BUT EXPECT WE`LL
SEE AT LEAST SOME PATCHY FROST IN THE NORMALLY COLDER VALLEY LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THERE WILL BE A A RETURN OF SUMMER LIKE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
REGION BEGINNING NEXT WEEK. A DRY...BUT MILD WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW DEVELOPS ON SUNDAY AS WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGINS.

ON MONDAY...MOISTURE FINALLY RETURNS AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT.
INITIALLY...THE LOWER PORTIONS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE VERY DRY.
EXPECT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO MAINLY HOLD OFF UNTIL
THE MONDAY EVENING/MONDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME. HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE
ON THE ACTUAL EXACT TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION ONSET AS THE
MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN CONSISTENT ON THIS FEATURE.

THE FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF OUR AREA AND BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY
DURING THE MIDWEEK PERIOD NEXT WEEK. NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL BE
IN THE WARM SECTOR. THERE WILL BE WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...AND THIS WILL BE MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN AS THERE
REMAINS THE ABSENCE OF ANY SOLID TRIGGERING MECHANISMS FOR
CONVECTION.

THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SAG SOUTH NEXT WEEKEND. THIS SHOULD
TRIGGER MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...WHICH
WILL BE WELL NEEDED PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...NW SFC WND GUSTING TO 25 KT THROUGH 00Z BEFORE
DIMINISHING. W WINDS WILL GUST TO 25 KT DURING THE DAY TOMORROW.

LONG TERM...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY. FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE
EXPECTED MON NIGHT INTO AT LEAST TUE MORNING IN A FEW SHOWERS AND
LOWERING CEILINGS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...FOLLOWING PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS THROUGH LATE TOMORROW.

LONG TERM...WEST WINDS SUNDAY SHIFT TO SW ON MONDAY...AND WILL
GUST TO AROUND 25 KT BOTH DAYS. GUSTY SW WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY AIR MASS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE TODAY. GOOD RELATIVE
HUMIDITY RECOVERY IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT. ON
SATURDAY...MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF 15 TO 25 PERCENT
AND GUSTY WEST WINDS...WILL COMBINE WITH LOW FINE FUEL MOISTURE
VALUES TO CREATE AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ON
SUNDAY MAY RESULT IN AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     MEZ012>014.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR MEZ007>009-012>014-018>028.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     MEZ007>009.
NH...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     NHZ006-008-009-011-015.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR NHZ004-006>015.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     NHZ001>005-007.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KCAR 221636
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1236 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TODAY. CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN UNSETTLED INTO SATURDAY AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION FROM CANADA. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY WITH
MORE SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1235 PM UPDATE: ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE CROPPED UP ACROSS
CENTRAL AROOSTOOK AND SOUTHERN PISCATAQUIS COUNTIES. THESE STORMS
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST. ADDITIONAL TSTMS WILL DEVELOP THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HRLY TEMPS...OTHERWISE
PREVIOUS FORECAST ON TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN FOCUS THIS TERM WILL BE SHOWERS,CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL AND
HAIL.

06Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD LOW PRES MOVING ACROSS NW MAINE W/THE
COLD FRONT STILL BACK ACROSS THE QUEBEC REGION. BATCH OF SHOWERS
HAVE PULLED NE INTO NEW BRUNSWICK. IR SATL IMAGERY SHOWED CLOUDS
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION W/SOME BREAKS ACROSS NW MAINE AND MORE
BREAKS BACK ACROSS WESTERN QUEBEC. PATCHY FOG SETTING UP ACROSS
EASTERN WASHINGTON COUNTY THIS MORNING W/A LOW CLOUD DECK. THIS
AREA OF CLOUDS WAS DUE TO THE SSE FLOW FROM THE GULF OF MAINE.
AS LOW PRES PASSES N OF THE BORDER THIS MORNING, THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. MORE SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED W/THE HEAVIEST ACTIVITY ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN
MAINE. STAYED W/THE DAYCREW`S THINKING OF 60-70% POPS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA AND CHANCE ELSEWHERE. MODEL SOUNDINGS
INCLUDING THE NAM AND GFS POINT TO SOME INSTABILITY LATER THIS
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON W/THE NAM BEING THE MOST ROBUST W/ITS
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS. THE INTERESTING FEATURES OF NOTE ARE THE
850-500MB LAPSE RATES OF 6.5 C/KM AND MUCAPES 400+ JOULES. MID/UPPER
LEVELS ARE QUITE COLD PER THE 00Z UA AND ANY HEATING IN THE LLVLS
COULD GET DESTABILIZATION GOING. FREEZING LEVELS ARE FORECAST TO
BE AROUND 5500 FT W/SOME MODEST 0-6KM SHEAR(20KTS). THE LATEST RUN
OF THE WRF AND HRRR3KM SUPPORT SOME CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL.
THEREFORE, DECIDED TO ADD ISOLD TSTMS W/THE POTENTIAL FOR SMALL
HAIL THROUGH 5 PM. AFTERNOON TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE WELL BELOW
NORMAL AND LUCKY TO TOP 60 DEGREES ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SE OF THE REGION BY THIS EVENING W/COLDER
AIR ARRIVING IN EARNEST THROUGH THE ENTIRE COLUMN. THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW WILL DIVE SE FROM NW QUEBEC TONIGHT W/MORE PRECIP ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ZONES. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO PLUNGE INTO THE 30S
ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA. THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE THAT
THE PRECIP COULD BE A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS OR EVEN JUST SNOW
SHOWERS ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAR NW MAINE BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED AS GROUND TEMPERATURES ARE WARM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW WILL EXIT THROUGH THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON SATURDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST. EXPECT PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY DOWN EAST.
EXPECT GUSTY WEST WINDS ON SATURDAY AS STEEP LAPSE RATES PROMOTE A
DEEP MIXED LAYER. WEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS OVER 40
MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE A
WIND ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOW 50S NORTH AND THE MID TO UPPER 50S CENTRAL AND
DOWNEAST...WHICH IS ABOUT 10 DEGREES NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR.

SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SATURDAY NIGHT AS A SHORT WAVE
FROM THE NORTHWEST APPROACHES. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE LATER
SATURDAY NIGHT MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 40S.

A WEAK RIDGE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE EXITING SHORT WAVE ON
SUNDAY WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 60S NORTH
AND UPPER 60S DOWN EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. A WARM FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. AN
INCREASINGLY WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS IS EXPECTED BY MID WEEK. ALONG
WITH THE WARM AND HUMID WEATHER WILL COME THE RISK OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT FROM THE
NORTHWEST. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD FINALLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
BY LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR THIS MORNING FOR ALL TERMINALS W/CONDITIONS
DROPPING TO MVFR LATER THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. NORTHERN
TERMINALS COULD HAVE A BRIEF TSTM W/SMALL HAIL. THERE WILL BE SOME
TURBULENCE INTO EARLY. WINDS BECOME NW BY THE AFTERNOON AND
INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 KTS. CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO IMPROVE TO
VFR BY THE EVENING FOR ALL TERMINALS.

SHORT TERM: VFR AND GUSTY WEST WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY.
VFR SATURDAY NIGHT EXCEPT MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCT SHOWERS MAINLY
NORTH. VFR SUNDAY/MONDAY. VFR TUESDAY WITH SCT AFTN SHOWER/TSTM
POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HEADLINES FORESEEN ATTM. DECIDED TO BRING WIND GUSTS
UP SOME OVER THE OUTER ZONES TONIGHT AS NW FLOW AND CAA TAKE HOLD.
THEREFORE, GUSTS COULD HIT 25 KTS ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY OVER THE
OUTER WATERS. WAVES WILL BUILD SOME, BUT THE HIGHEST WAVES WILL
BE WELL SE OF THE REGION W/A SWELL GENERATION DEVELOPING FROM THE
LOW PASSING SE OF THE WATERS. THIS IS PICKED UP WELL BY THE SWAN
GUIDANCE. STAYED W/SEAS BUILDING TO 3-5 FT TONIGHT, MAINLY ACROSS
THE OUTER ZONES.

SHORT TERM: SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND AGAIN SUNDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR MEZ001>006-010-011-015>017-029>032.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...NORTON
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...NORTON/DUDA
MARINE...NORTON/DUDA



000
FXUS61 KCAR 221636
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1236 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TODAY. CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN UNSETTLED INTO SATURDAY AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION FROM CANADA. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY WITH
MORE SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1235 PM UPDATE: ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE CROPPED UP ACROSS
CENTRAL AROOSTOOK AND SOUTHERN PISCATAQUIS COUNTIES. THESE STORMS
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST. ADDITIONAL TSTMS WILL DEVELOP THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HRLY TEMPS...OTHERWISE
PREVIOUS FORECAST ON TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN FOCUS THIS TERM WILL BE SHOWERS,CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL AND
HAIL.

06Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD LOW PRES MOVING ACROSS NW MAINE W/THE
COLD FRONT STILL BACK ACROSS THE QUEBEC REGION. BATCH OF SHOWERS
HAVE PULLED NE INTO NEW BRUNSWICK. IR SATL IMAGERY SHOWED CLOUDS
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION W/SOME BREAKS ACROSS NW MAINE AND MORE
BREAKS BACK ACROSS WESTERN QUEBEC. PATCHY FOG SETTING UP ACROSS
EASTERN WASHINGTON COUNTY THIS MORNING W/A LOW CLOUD DECK. THIS
AREA OF CLOUDS WAS DUE TO THE SSE FLOW FROM THE GULF OF MAINE.
AS LOW PRES PASSES N OF THE BORDER THIS MORNING, THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. MORE SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED W/THE HEAVIEST ACTIVITY ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN
MAINE. STAYED W/THE DAYCREW`S THINKING OF 60-70% POPS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA AND CHANCE ELSEWHERE. MODEL SOUNDINGS
INCLUDING THE NAM AND GFS POINT TO SOME INSTABILITY LATER THIS
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON W/THE NAM BEING THE MOST ROBUST W/ITS
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS. THE INTERESTING FEATURES OF NOTE ARE THE
850-500MB LAPSE RATES OF 6.5 C/KM AND MUCAPES 400+ JOULES. MID/UPPER
LEVELS ARE QUITE COLD PER THE 00Z UA AND ANY HEATING IN THE LLVLS
COULD GET DESTABILIZATION GOING. FREEZING LEVELS ARE FORECAST TO
BE AROUND 5500 FT W/SOME MODEST 0-6KM SHEAR(20KTS). THE LATEST RUN
OF THE WRF AND HRRR3KM SUPPORT SOME CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL.
THEREFORE, DECIDED TO ADD ISOLD TSTMS W/THE POTENTIAL FOR SMALL
HAIL THROUGH 5 PM. AFTERNOON TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE WELL BELOW
NORMAL AND LUCKY TO TOP 60 DEGREES ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SE OF THE REGION BY THIS EVENING W/COLDER
AIR ARRIVING IN EARNEST THROUGH THE ENTIRE COLUMN. THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW WILL DIVE SE FROM NW QUEBEC TONIGHT W/MORE PRECIP ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ZONES. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO PLUNGE INTO THE 30S
ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA. THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE THAT
THE PRECIP COULD BE A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS OR EVEN JUST SNOW
SHOWERS ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAR NW MAINE BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED AS GROUND TEMPERATURES ARE WARM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW WILL EXIT THROUGH THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON SATURDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST. EXPECT PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY DOWN EAST.
EXPECT GUSTY WEST WINDS ON SATURDAY AS STEEP LAPSE RATES PROMOTE A
DEEP MIXED LAYER. WEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS OVER 40
MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE A
WIND ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOW 50S NORTH AND THE MID TO UPPER 50S CENTRAL AND
DOWNEAST...WHICH IS ABOUT 10 DEGREES NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR.

SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SATURDAY NIGHT AS A SHORT WAVE
FROM THE NORTHWEST APPROACHES. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE LATER
SATURDAY NIGHT MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 40S.

A WEAK RIDGE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE EXITING SHORT WAVE ON
SUNDAY WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 60S NORTH
AND UPPER 60S DOWN EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. A WARM FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. AN
INCREASINGLY WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS IS EXPECTED BY MID WEEK. ALONG
WITH THE WARM AND HUMID WEATHER WILL COME THE RISK OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT FROM THE
NORTHWEST. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD FINALLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
BY LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR THIS MORNING FOR ALL TERMINALS W/CONDITIONS
DROPPING TO MVFR LATER THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. NORTHERN
TERMINALS COULD HAVE A BRIEF TSTM W/SMALL HAIL. THERE WILL BE SOME
TURBULENCE INTO EARLY. WINDS BECOME NW BY THE AFTERNOON AND
INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 KTS. CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO IMPROVE TO
VFR BY THE EVENING FOR ALL TERMINALS.

SHORT TERM: VFR AND GUSTY WEST WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY.
VFR SATURDAY NIGHT EXCEPT MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCT SHOWERS MAINLY
NORTH. VFR SUNDAY/MONDAY. VFR TUESDAY WITH SCT AFTN SHOWER/TSTM
POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HEADLINES FORESEEN ATTM. DECIDED TO BRING WIND GUSTS
UP SOME OVER THE OUTER ZONES TONIGHT AS NW FLOW AND CAA TAKE HOLD.
THEREFORE, GUSTS COULD HIT 25 KTS ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY OVER THE
OUTER WATERS. WAVES WILL BUILD SOME, BUT THE HIGHEST WAVES WILL
BE WELL SE OF THE REGION W/A SWELL GENERATION DEVELOPING FROM THE
LOW PASSING SE OF THE WATERS. THIS IS PICKED UP WELL BY THE SWAN
GUIDANCE. STAYED W/SEAS BUILDING TO 3-5 FT TONIGHT, MAINLY ACROSS
THE OUTER ZONES.

SHORT TERM: SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND AGAIN SUNDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR MEZ001>006-010-011-015>017-029>032.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...NORTON
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...NORTON/DUDA
MARINE...NORTON/DUDA




000
FXUS61 KCAR 221636
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1236 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TODAY. CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN UNSETTLED INTO SATURDAY AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION FROM CANADA. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY WITH
MORE SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1235 PM UPDATE: ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE CROPPED UP ACROSS
CENTRAL AROOSTOOK AND SOUTHERN PISCATAQUIS COUNTIES. THESE STORMS
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST. ADDITIONAL TSTMS WILL DEVELOP THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HRLY TEMPS...OTHERWISE
PREVIOUS FORECAST ON TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN FOCUS THIS TERM WILL BE SHOWERS,CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL AND
HAIL.

06Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD LOW PRES MOVING ACROSS NW MAINE W/THE
COLD FRONT STILL BACK ACROSS THE QUEBEC REGION. BATCH OF SHOWERS
HAVE PULLED NE INTO NEW BRUNSWICK. IR SATL IMAGERY SHOWED CLOUDS
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION W/SOME BREAKS ACROSS NW MAINE AND MORE
BREAKS BACK ACROSS WESTERN QUEBEC. PATCHY FOG SETTING UP ACROSS
EASTERN WASHINGTON COUNTY THIS MORNING W/A LOW CLOUD DECK. THIS
AREA OF CLOUDS WAS DUE TO THE SSE FLOW FROM THE GULF OF MAINE.
AS LOW PRES PASSES N OF THE BORDER THIS MORNING, THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. MORE SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED W/THE HEAVIEST ACTIVITY ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN
MAINE. STAYED W/THE DAYCREW`S THINKING OF 60-70% POPS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA AND CHANCE ELSEWHERE. MODEL SOUNDINGS
INCLUDING THE NAM AND GFS POINT TO SOME INSTABILITY LATER THIS
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON W/THE NAM BEING THE MOST ROBUST W/ITS
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS. THE INTERESTING FEATURES OF NOTE ARE THE
850-500MB LAPSE RATES OF 6.5 C/KM AND MUCAPES 400+ JOULES. MID/UPPER
LEVELS ARE QUITE COLD PER THE 00Z UA AND ANY HEATING IN THE LLVLS
COULD GET DESTABILIZATION GOING. FREEZING LEVELS ARE FORECAST TO
BE AROUND 5500 FT W/SOME MODEST 0-6KM SHEAR(20KTS). THE LATEST RUN
OF THE WRF AND HRRR3KM SUPPORT SOME CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL.
THEREFORE, DECIDED TO ADD ISOLD TSTMS W/THE POTENTIAL FOR SMALL
HAIL THROUGH 5 PM. AFTERNOON TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE WELL BELOW
NORMAL AND LUCKY TO TOP 60 DEGREES ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SE OF THE REGION BY THIS EVENING W/COLDER
AIR ARRIVING IN EARNEST THROUGH THE ENTIRE COLUMN. THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW WILL DIVE SE FROM NW QUEBEC TONIGHT W/MORE PRECIP ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ZONES. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO PLUNGE INTO THE 30S
ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA. THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE THAT
THE PRECIP COULD BE A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS OR EVEN JUST SNOW
SHOWERS ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAR NW MAINE BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED AS GROUND TEMPERATURES ARE WARM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW WILL EXIT THROUGH THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON SATURDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST. EXPECT PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY DOWN EAST.
EXPECT GUSTY WEST WINDS ON SATURDAY AS STEEP LAPSE RATES PROMOTE A
DEEP MIXED LAYER. WEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS OVER 40
MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE A
WIND ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOW 50S NORTH AND THE MID TO UPPER 50S CENTRAL AND
DOWNEAST...WHICH IS ABOUT 10 DEGREES NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR.

SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SATURDAY NIGHT AS A SHORT WAVE
FROM THE NORTHWEST APPROACHES. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE LATER
SATURDAY NIGHT MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 40S.

A WEAK RIDGE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE EXITING SHORT WAVE ON
SUNDAY WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 60S NORTH
AND UPPER 60S DOWN EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. A WARM FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. AN
INCREASINGLY WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS IS EXPECTED BY MID WEEK. ALONG
WITH THE WARM AND HUMID WEATHER WILL COME THE RISK OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT FROM THE
NORTHWEST. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD FINALLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
BY LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR THIS MORNING FOR ALL TERMINALS W/CONDITIONS
DROPPING TO MVFR LATER THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. NORTHERN
TERMINALS COULD HAVE A BRIEF TSTM W/SMALL HAIL. THERE WILL BE SOME
TURBULENCE INTO EARLY. WINDS BECOME NW BY THE AFTERNOON AND
INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 KTS. CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO IMPROVE TO
VFR BY THE EVENING FOR ALL TERMINALS.

SHORT TERM: VFR AND GUSTY WEST WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY.
VFR SATURDAY NIGHT EXCEPT MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCT SHOWERS MAINLY
NORTH. VFR SUNDAY/MONDAY. VFR TUESDAY WITH SCT AFTN SHOWER/TSTM
POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HEADLINES FORESEEN ATTM. DECIDED TO BRING WIND GUSTS
UP SOME OVER THE OUTER ZONES TONIGHT AS NW FLOW AND CAA TAKE HOLD.
THEREFORE, GUSTS COULD HIT 25 KTS ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY OVER THE
OUTER WATERS. WAVES WILL BUILD SOME, BUT THE HIGHEST WAVES WILL
BE WELL SE OF THE REGION W/A SWELL GENERATION DEVELOPING FROM THE
LOW PASSING SE OF THE WATERS. THIS IS PICKED UP WELL BY THE SWAN
GUIDANCE. STAYED W/SEAS BUILDING TO 3-5 FT TONIGHT, MAINLY ACROSS
THE OUTER ZONES.

SHORT TERM: SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND AGAIN SUNDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR MEZ001>006-010-011-015>017-029>032.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...NORTON
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...NORTON/DUDA
MARINE...NORTON/DUDA



000
FXUS61 KCAR 221636
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1236 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TODAY. CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN UNSETTLED INTO SATURDAY AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION FROM CANADA. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY WITH
MORE SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1235 PM UPDATE: ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE CROPPED UP ACROSS
CENTRAL AROOSTOOK AND SOUTHERN PISCATAQUIS COUNTIES. THESE STORMS
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST. ADDITIONAL TSTMS WILL DEVELOP THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HRLY TEMPS...OTHERWISE
PREVIOUS FORECAST ON TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN FOCUS THIS TERM WILL BE SHOWERS,CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL AND
HAIL.

06Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD LOW PRES MOVING ACROSS NW MAINE W/THE
COLD FRONT STILL BACK ACROSS THE QUEBEC REGION. BATCH OF SHOWERS
HAVE PULLED NE INTO NEW BRUNSWICK. IR SATL IMAGERY SHOWED CLOUDS
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION W/SOME BREAKS ACROSS NW MAINE AND MORE
BREAKS BACK ACROSS WESTERN QUEBEC. PATCHY FOG SETTING UP ACROSS
EASTERN WASHINGTON COUNTY THIS MORNING W/A LOW CLOUD DECK. THIS
AREA OF CLOUDS WAS DUE TO THE SSE FLOW FROM THE GULF OF MAINE.
AS LOW PRES PASSES N OF THE BORDER THIS MORNING, THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. MORE SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED W/THE HEAVIEST ACTIVITY ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN
MAINE. STAYED W/THE DAYCREW`S THINKING OF 60-70% POPS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA AND CHANCE ELSEWHERE. MODEL SOUNDINGS
INCLUDING THE NAM AND GFS POINT TO SOME INSTABILITY LATER THIS
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON W/THE NAM BEING THE MOST ROBUST W/ITS
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS. THE INTERESTING FEATURES OF NOTE ARE THE
850-500MB LAPSE RATES OF 6.5 C/KM AND MUCAPES 400+ JOULES. MID/UPPER
LEVELS ARE QUITE COLD PER THE 00Z UA AND ANY HEATING IN THE LLVLS
COULD GET DESTABILIZATION GOING. FREEZING LEVELS ARE FORECAST TO
BE AROUND 5500 FT W/SOME MODEST 0-6KM SHEAR(20KTS). THE LATEST RUN
OF THE WRF AND HRRR3KM SUPPORT SOME CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL.
THEREFORE, DECIDED TO ADD ISOLD TSTMS W/THE POTENTIAL FOR SMALL
HAIL THROUGH 5 PM. AFTERNOON TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE WELL BELOW
NORMAL AND LUCKY TO TOP 60 DEGREES ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SE OF THE REGION BY THIS EVENING W/COLDER
AIR ARRIVING IN EARNEST THROUGH THE ENTIRE COLUMN. THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW WILL DIVE SE FROM NW QUEBEC TONIGHT W/MORE PRECIP ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ZONES. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO PLUNGE INTO THE 30S
ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA. THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE THAT
THE PRECIP COULD BE A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS OR EVEN JUST SNOW
SHOWERS ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAR NW MAINE BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED AS GROUND TEMPERATURES ARE WARM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW WILL EXIT THROUGH THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON SATURDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST. EXPECT PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY DOWN EAST.
EXPECT GUSTY WEST WINDS ON SATURDAY AS STEEP LAPSE RATES PROMOTE A
DEEP MIXED LAYER. WEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS OVER 40
MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE A
WIND ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOW 50S NORTH AND THE MID TO UPPER 50S CENTRAL AND
DOWNEAST...WHICH IS ABOUT 10 DEGREES NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR.

SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SATURDAY NIGHT AS A SHORT WAVE
FROM THE NORTHWEST APPROACHES. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE LATER
SATURDAY NIGHT MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 40S.

A WEAK RIDGE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE EXITING SHORT WAVE ON
SUNDAY WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 60S NORTH
AND UPPER 60S DOWN EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. A WARM FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. AN
INCREASINGLY WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS IS EXPECTED BY MID WEEK. ALONG
WITH THE WARM AND HUMID WEATHER WILL COME THE RISK OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT FROM THE
NORTHWEST. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD FINALLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
BY LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR THIS MORNING FOR ALL TERMINALS W/CONDITIONS
DROPPING TO MVFR LATER THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. NORTHERN
TERMINALS COULD HAVE A BRIEF TSTM W/SMALL HAIL. THERE WILL BE SOME
TURBULENCE INTO EARLY. WINDS BECOME NW BY THE AFTERNOON AND
INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 KTS. CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO IMPROVE TO
VFR BY THE EVENING FOR ALL TERMINALS.

SHORT TERM: VFR AND GUSTY WEST WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY.
VFR SATURDAY NIGHT EXCEPT MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCT SHOWERS MAINLY
NORTH. VFR SUNDAY/MONDAY. VFR TUESDAY WITH SCT AFTN SHOWER/TSTM
POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HEADLINES FORESEEN ATTM. DECIDED TO BRING WIND GUSTS
UP SOME OVER THE OUTER ZONES TONIGHT AS NW FLOW AND CAA TAKE HOLD.
THEREFORE, GUSTS COULD HIT 25 KTS ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY OVER THE
OUTER WATERS. WAVES WILL BUILD SOME, BUT THE HIGHEST WAVES WILL
BE WELL SE OF THE REGION W/A SWELL GENERATION DEVELOPING FROM THE
LOW PASSING SE OF THE WATERS. THIS IS PICKED UP WELL BY THE SWAN
GUIDANCE. STAYED W/SEAS BUILDING TO 3-5 FT TONIGHT, MAINLY ACROSS
THE OUTER ZONES.

SHORT TERM: SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND AGAIN SUNDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR MEZ001>006-010-011-015>017-029>032.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...NORTON
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...NORTON/DUDA
MARINE...NORTON/DUDA




000
FXUS61 KGYX 221551
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1151 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS NEW ENGLAND TODAY...SETTING OFF A FEW
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH NEW ENGLAND ON
MONDAY...AND CROSS THE AREAS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY....PROVIDING
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. WARM AND MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...

1150 AM...MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO 1ST PERIOD GRIDS TO INCORPORATE
THE LATEST MESONET AND SATELLITE TRENDS.

PREV DISC...
950 AM...MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO 1ST PERIOD GRIDS TO INCORPORATE THE
LATEST MESONET.

PREV DISC...
UPDATE...A FEW MINOR CHANGES TO REFLECT CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL
TRENDS. DID INCLUDE SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POP S OF THE MTNS THIS
MORNING...AS A BAND OF VERY LIGHT SHOWERS DRIFTS THRU THE AREA ON
THE NW SIDE OF WEAK COASTAL LOW PRES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A SEASONABLY STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...USHERING IN SOME VERY CHILLY AIR. PRIOR
TO ITS ARRIVAL AREAS E OF THE MTNS SHOULD WARM SUFFICIENTLY TO
PROVIDE A LITTLE BIT OF FUEL FOR SHOWERS TO POP UP ALONG THE
FRONT.

MESOSCALE GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THAT A BAND OR
CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP QUICKLY ALONG THE MTNS AND RACE
EWD TOWARDS THE COAST...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WRN ME. FARTHER S AND
W...THE AIR MASS WILL BE QUITE DRY AND SOUNDINGS SUGGEST IT WILL
BE DIFFICULT TO SATURATE ENOUGH FOR PCPN. DEEPER MOIST LAYERS WILL
RESIDE ACROSS WRN ME...AND WILL SUPPORT LIKELY POP FOR PARTS OF
THE MIDCOAST. LOW FREEZING LEVELS WILL ALSO SUPPORT PLENTY OF ICE
IN THE CLOUDS...AND CANNOT RULE OUT SOME THUNDER OR SMALL
HAIL/GRAUPEL. STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL RESIDE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER
THANKS TO THE DRY AIR MASS...SO SOME OF THESE SHOWERS/TSTMS MAY BE
GUSTY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING H8 TEMPS BETWEEN -4 AND -8 C
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS IS NEARLY A 3 SIGMA DEPARTURE FROM
NORMAL...AND MODEL GUIDANCE HAS EVEN COOLED A LITTLE FROM LAST
NIGHT. SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY SUGGESTS THIS COLD SHOT WILL FALL WELL
WITHIN THE LOWEST 10 PERCENT OF OBSERVATIONS FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. THIS ALL ADDS UP TO A LOW TEMP FORECAST AT LEAST AS COLD AS
WED NIGHT...AND PROBABLY A FEW DEGREES COOLER.

THAT BEING SAID...MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL REMAIN AT LEAST PARTIALLY MIXED AS CAA CONTINUES
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. MAV/MET GUIDANCE CAN OFTEN BE TOO AGGRESSIVE
IN DECOUPLING THE BOUNDARY LAYER...THUS FORECASTING MIN TEMPS TOO
COLD ESPECIALLY DOWNWIND OF THE MTNS. THE LATEST MAV FOR INSTANCE
BRINGS KHIE AND KBML DOWN TO THE UPPER TEENS. TO OFFSET THIS BIAS
I HAVE BLENDED IN SOME 2 M TEMPS FROM REGIONAL SCALE MODEL
GUIDANCE TO PROVIDE AN ELEMENT CAA MIXED LAYER. OVERALL THIS
LOWERED THE PREVIOUS FORECAST A DEGREE OR TWO. THE GRADIENT FLOW
MAY BE ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE FROST FOR MOST AREAS...BUT TEMPS
REGARDLESS LOOK TO FALL BELOW FREEZING FOR A LARGE PORTION OF THE
NRN FORECAST AREA. I EXPANDED THE FREEZE WATCH TO AREAS ON THE
BORDERLINE OF 32 DEGREES TO HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR A COLDER
FORECAST SOLUTION. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE IF RIDGING CAN MOVE IN
FASTER...ALLOWING THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO DECOUPLE. THIS WOULD MOST
LIKELY HAPPEN OVER WRN ZONES...SO THE MOST UNCERTAINTY IN THE
FORECAST LIES IN THOSE AREAS.

IT WILL BE A COOL AND BREEZY DAY SAT IN THE POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS.
WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON DEW POINT FORECASTS DURING THE DAY.
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN THE LOW TO MID 20S...WHILE BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
SHOW THE DEPTH OF MIXED LAYER HINTING AT REALITY BEING CLOSER TO
THE LOW TO MID TEENS. THIS WOULD BRING RH VALUES WELL BELOW 25
PERCENT...AND COUPLED WITH WINDS AND RECENT DRYNESS COULD CAUSE
SOME FIRE DANGER ISSUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
500MB PATTERN TRANSITIONS TO BLOCKY SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN NEXT WEEK
AS RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE ERN CONUS AND WRN ATLANTIC AND 500MB
JET RETREATS WELL POLEWARD. THIS WILL LEAD TO WARM AND MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS MOVING IN...WITH POTENTIAL FOR SCT TSRA AT TIMES AS WE
ARE ON THE SRN PERIPHERY OF IMPULSES MOVING BY IN THE STRONGER
500 MB TO OUR N.

SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE A SEASONABLY FAIR DAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
70S AND A DECENT WEST WIND WILL KEEP THE COOLER MARINE AIR MAINLY
OFFSHORE...EXCEPT MAYBE AT THE BEACHES. SUNDAY NIGHT LOOKS CLEAR
AND MORE MILD THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS WITH LOWS IN THE MID 40S N...TO
MID 50S S. DECENT WAA BEGINS TO DEVELOP TO OUR WEST ON
MONDAY...AND SHOULD CLOUDS OVERSPREAD WRN ZONES AT LEAST DURING
THE AFTERNOON...BUT THINKING ANY RAIN/SHOWERS WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL
MON NIGHT. THE SW FLOW SHOULD WARM TEMPS INLAND WELL INTO THE
MID-UPPER 70S...BUT WILL COOL THE COAST DOWN...ESPECIALLY THE MID
COAST.

DECENT MID-LVL WAA MOVES THROUGH MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING...AND
SHOULD PRODUCE A PERIOD OF RAIN OR SOME CONVECTIVE SHOWERS DURING
THIS TIMEFRAME. TDS RISE QUICKLY BEHIND THIS WARM FRONT SHOOTING
UP INTO THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S. WED-FRI WILL BE WARM AND
HUMID...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY RUNNING 80-85 INLAND...AND IN THE 70S
ON THE COAST. SOME WAVES WILL INEVITABLY MOVE OVER THE TOP OF THE
RIDGE...SO THERE WILL BE THE THREAT OF SHRA/TSRA...BUT TIMING
THIS FAR OUT IS A GUESS AT BEST.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THRU SAT. COLD FRONT CROSSING
THE FORECAST AREA WILL KICK OFF SCATTERED SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS INTERIOR WRN ME. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS MAY CONTAIN SOME
THUNDER...THOUGH THE PROBABILITY IS LOW. AT ALL TERMINALS NW WIND
GUSTS TO 25 KTS ARE POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT. GUSTY WINDS
CONTINUE AGAIN SAT.

LONG TERM...VFR EXPECTED SAT NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED MON NIGHT INTO AT LEAST TUE MORNING IS
SHRA AND LOW CLOUDS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS TODAY...WITH STRONG
CAA TO FOLLOW BEHIND IT. WINDS WILL GUST ABOVE 25 KTS LATE TONIGHT
INTO SAT MORNING. SEAS WILL BUILD TO NEAR 5 FT ON THE OUTER WATERS
BEFORE SLOWLY DIMINISHING SAT.

LONG TERM...WEST WINDS SUNDAY SHIFT TO SW ON MONDAY...AND WILL
GUST TO AROUND 20 KT BOTH DAYS BUT ARE EXPECTED TO BE SUB-SCA
LVLS. IN GENERAL WINDS WILL REMAIN BLO SCA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. SOME SEAS WELL OFFSHORE COULD REACH 5 FT LATE MON AND
TUE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY AIR MASS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TODAY. COOLER TEMPERATURES
WILL KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES GENERALLY AROUND 25 PERCENT.
LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITIES MAY BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST...WHERE
TEMPERATURES MAY CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 70S. AS COLD FRONT CROSSES
THE AREA WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY FROM THE WEST NORTHWEST. AIR
MASS WILL BECOME WINDIER AND DRIER ON SATURDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FREEZE WATCH FROM 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY
     MORNING FOR MEZ007>009-012-013.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR MEZ007>009-012>014-018>028.
NH...FREEZE WATCH FROM 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY
     MORNING FOR NHZ001>009-011.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR NHZ004-006>015.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$
ES



000
FXUS61 KGYX 221551
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1151 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS NEW ENGLAND TODAY...SETTING OFF A FEW
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH NEW ENGLAND ON
MONDAY...AND CROSS THE AREAS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY....PROVIDING
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. WARM AND MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...

1150 AM...MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO 1ST PERIOD GRIDS TO INCORPORATE
THE LATEST MESONET AND SATELLITE TRENDS.

PREV DISC...
950 AM...MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO 1ST PERIOD GRIDS TO INCORPORATE THE
LATEST MESONET.

PREV DISC...
UPDATE...A FEW MINOR CHANGES TO REFLECT CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL
TRENDS. DID INCLUDE SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POP S OF THE MTNS THIS
MORNING...AS A BAND OF VERY LIGHT SHOWERS DRIFTS THRU THE AREA ON
THE NW SIDE OF WEAK COASTAL LOW PRES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A SEASONABLY STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...USHERING IN SOME VERY CHILLY AIR. PRIOR
TO ITS ARRIVAL AREAS E OF THE MTNS SHOULD WARM SUFFICIENTLY TO
PROVIDE A LITTLE BIT OF FUEL FOR SHOWERS TO POP UP ALONG THE
FRONT.

MESOSCALE GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THAT A BAND OR
CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP QUICKLY ALONG THE MTNS AND RACE
EWD TOWARDS THE COAST...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WRN ME. FARTHER S AND
W...THE AIR MASS WILL BE QUITE DRY AND SOUNDINGS SUGGEST IT WILL
BE DIFFICULT TO SATURATE ENOUGH FOR PCPN. DEEPER MOIST LAYERS WILL
RESIDE ACROSS WRN ME...AND WILL SUPPORT LIKELY POP FOR PARTS OF
THE MIDCOAST. LOW FREEZING LEVELS WILL ALSO SUPPORT PLENTY OF ICE
IN THE CLOUDS...AND CANNOT RULE OUT SOME THUNDER OR SMALL
HAIL/GRAUPEL. STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL RESIDE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER
THANKS TO THE DRY AIR MASS...SO SOME OF THESE SHOWERS/TSTMS MAY BE
GUSTY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING H8 TEMPS BETWEEN -4 AND -8 C
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS IS NEARLY A 3 SIGMA DEPARTURE FROM
NORMAL...AND MODEL GUIDANCE HAS EVEN COOLED A LITTLE FROM LAST
NIGHT. SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY SUGGESTS THIS COLD SHOT WILL FALL WELL
WITHIN THE LOWEST 10 PERCENT OF OBSERVATIONS FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. THIS ALL ADDS UP TO A LOW TEMP FORECAST AT LEAST AS COLD AS
WED NIGHT...AND PROBABLY A FEW DEGREES COOLER.

THAT BEING SAID...MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL REMAIN AT LEAST PARTIALLY MIXED AS CAA CONTINUES
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. MAV/MET GUIDANCE CAN OFTEN BE TOO AGGRESSIVE
IN DECOUPLING THE BOUNDARY LAYER...THUS FORECASTING MIN TEMPS TOO
COLD ESPECIALLY DOWNWIND OF THE MTNS. THE LATEST MAV FOR INSTANCE
BRINGS KHIE AND KBML DOWN TO THE UPPER TEENS. TO OFFSET THIS BIAS
I HAVE BLENDED IN SOME 2 M TEMPS FROM REGIONAL SCALE MODEL
GUIDANCE TO PROVIDE AN ELEMENT CAA MIXED LAYER. OVERALL THIS
LOWERED THE PREVIOUS FORECAST A DEGREE OR TWO. THE GRADIENT FLOW
MAY BE ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE FROST FOR MOST AREAS...BUT TEMPS
REGARDLESS LOOK TO FALL BELOW FREEZING FOR A LARGE PORTION OF THE
NRN FORECAST AREA. I EXPANDED THE FREEZE WATCH TO AREAS ON THE
BORDERLINE OF 32 DEGREES TO HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR A COLDER
FORECAST SOLUTION. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE IF RIDGING CAN MOVE IN
FASTER...ALLOWING THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO DECOUPLE. THIS WOULD MOST
LIKELY HAPPEN OVER WRN ZONES...SO THE MOST UNCERTAINTY IN THE
FORECAST LIES IN THOSE AREAS.

IT WILL BE A COOL AND BREEZY DAY SAT IN THE POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS.
WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON DEW POINT FORECASTS DURING THE DAY.
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN THE LOW TO MID 20S...WHILE BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
SHOW THE DEPTH OF MIXED LAYER HINTING AT REALITY BEING CLOSER TO
THE LOW TO MID TEENS. THIS WOULD BRING RH VALUES WELL BELOW 25
PERCENT...AND COUPLED WITH WINDS AND RECENT DRYNESS COULD CAUSE
SOME FIRE DANGER ISSUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
500MB PATTERN TRANSITIONS TO BLOCKY SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN NEXT WEEK
AS RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE ERN CONUS AND WRN ATLANTIC AND 500MB
JET RETREATS WELL POLEWARD. THIS WILL LEAD TO WARM AND MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS MOVING IN...WITH POTENTIAL FOR SCT TSRA AT TIMES AS WE
ARE ON THE SRN PERIPHERY OF IMPULSES MOVING BY IN THE STRONGER
500 MB TO OUR N.

SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE A SEASONABLY FAIR DAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
70S AND A DECENT WEST WIND WILL KEEP THE COOLER MARINE AIR MAINLY
OFFSHORE...EXCEPT MAYBE AT THE BEACHES. SUNDAY NIGHT LOOKS CLEAR
AND MORE MILD THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS WITH LOWS IN THE MID 40S N...TO
MID 50S S. DECENT WAA BEGINS TO DEVELOP TO OUR WEST ON
MONDAY...AND SHOULD CLOUDS OVERSPREAD WRN ZONES AT LEAST DURING
THE AFTERNOON...BUT THINKING ANY RAIN/SHOWERS WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL
MON NIGHT. THE SW FLOW SHOULD WARM TEMPS INLAND WELL INTO THE
MID-UPPER 70S...BUT WILL COOL THE COAST DOWN...ESPECIALLY THE MID
COAST.

DECENT MID-LVL WAA MOVES THROUGH MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING...AND
SHOULD PRODUCE A PERIOD OF RAIN OR SOME CONVECTIVE SHOWERS DURING
THIS TIMEFRAME. TDS RISE QUICKLY BEHIND THIS WARM FRONT SHOOTING
UP INTO THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S. WED-FRI WILL BE WARM AND
HUMID...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY RUNNING 80-85 INLAND...AND IN THE 70S
ON THE COAST. SOME WAVES WILL INEVITABLY MOVE OVER THE TOP OF THE
RIDGE...SO THERE WILL BE THE THREAT OF SHRA/TSRA...BUT TIMING
THIS FAR OUT IS A GUESS AT BEST.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THRU SAT. COLD FRONT CROSSING
THE FORECAST AREA WILL KICK OFF SCATTERED SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS INTERIOR WRN ME. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS MAY CONTAIN SOME
THUNDER...THOUGH THE PROBABILITY IS LOW. AT ALL TERMINALS NW WIND
GUSTS TO 25 KTS ARE POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT. GUSTY WINDS
CONTINUE AGAIN SAT.

LONG TERM...VFR EXPECTED SAT NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED MON NIGHT INTO AT LEAST TUE MORNING IS
SHRA AND LOW CLOUDS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS TODAY...WITH STRONG
CAA TO FOLLOW BEHIND IT. WINDS WILL GUST ABOVE 25 KTS LATE TONIGHT
INTO SAT MORNING. SEAS WILL BUILD TO NEAR 5 FT ON THE OUTER WATERS
BEFORE SLOWLY DIMINISHING SAT.

LONG TERM...WEST WINDS SUNDAY SHIFT TO SW ON MONDAY...AND WILL
GUST TO AROUND 20 KT BOTH DAYS BUT ARE EXPECTED TO BE SUB-SCA
LVLS. IN GENERAL WINDS WILL REMAIN BLO SCA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. SOME SEAS WELL OFFSHORE COULD REACH 5 FT LATE MON AND
TUE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY AIR MASS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TODAY. COOLER TEMPERATURES
WILL KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES GENERALLY AROUND 25 PERCENT.
LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITIES MAY BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST...WHERE
TEMPERATURES MAY CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 70S. AS COLD FRONT CROSSES
THE AREA WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY FROM THE WEST NORTHWEST. AIR
MASS WILL BECOME WINDIER AND DRIER ON SATURDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FREEZE WATCH FROM 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY
     MORNING FOR MEZ007>009-012-013.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR MEZ007>009-012>014-018>028.
NH...FREEZE WATCH FROM 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY
     MORNING FOR NHZ001>009-011.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR NHZ004-006>015.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$
ES



000
FXUS61 KGYX 221551
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1151 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS NEW ENGLAND TODAY...SETTING OFF A FEW
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH NEW ENGLAND ON
MONDAY...AND CROSS THE AREAS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY....PROVIDING
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. WARM AND MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...

1150 AM...MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO 1ST PERIOD GRIDS TO INCORPORATE
THE LATEST MESONET AND SATELLITE TRENDS.

PREV DISC...
950 AM...MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO 1ST PERIOD GRIDS TO INCORPORATE THE
LATEST MESONET.

PREV DISC...
UPDATE...A FEW MINOR CHANGES TO REFLECT CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL
TRENDS. DID INCLUDE SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POP S OF THE MTNS THIS
MORNING...AS A BAND OF VERY LIGHT SHOWERS DRIFTS THRU THE AREA ON
THE NW SIDE OF WEAK COASTAL LOW PRES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A SEASONABLY STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...USHERING IN SOME VERY CHILLY AIR. PRIOR
TO ITS ARRIVAL AREAS E OF THE MTNS SHOULD WARM SUFFICIENTLY TO
PROVIDE A LITTLE BIT OF FUEL FOR SHOWERS TO POP UP ALONG THE
FRONT.

MESOSCALE GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THAT A BAND OR
CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP QUICKLY ALONG THE MTNS AND RACE
EWD TOWARDS THE COAST...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WRN ME. FARTHER S AND
W...THE AIR MASS WILL BE QUITE DRY AND SOUNDINGS SUGGEST IT WILL
BE DIFFICULT TO SATURATE ENOUGH FOR PCPN. DEEPER MOIST LAYERS WILL
RESIDE ACROSS WRN ME...AND WILL SUPPORT LIKELY POP FOR PARTS OF
THE MIDCOAST. LOW FREEZING LEVELS WILL ALSO SUPPORT PLENTY OF ICE
IN THE CLOUDS...AND CANNOT RULE OUT SOME THUNDER OR SMALL
HAIL/GRAUPEL. STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL RESIDE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER
THANKS TO THE DRY AIR MASS...SO SOME OF THESE SHOWERS/TSTMS MAY BE
GUSTY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING H8 TEMPS BETWEEN -4 AND -8 C
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS IS NEARLY A 3 SIGMA DEPARTURE FROM
NORMAL...AND MODEL GUIDANCE HAS EVEN COOLED A LITTLE FROM LAST
NIGHT. SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY SUGGESTS THIS COLD SHOT WILL FALL WELL
WITHIN THE LOWEST 10 PERCENT OF OBSERVATIONS FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. THIS ALL ADDS UP TO A LOW TEMP FORECAST AT LEAST AS COLD AS
WED NIGHT...AND PROBABLY A FEW DEGREES COOLER.

THAT BEING SAID...MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL REMAIN AT LEAST PARTIALLY MIXED AS CAA CONTINUES
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. MAV/MET GUIDANCE CAN OFTEN BE TOO AGGRESSIVE
IN DECOUPLING THE BOUNDARY LAYER...THUS FORECASTING MIN TEMPS TOO
COLD ESPECIALLY DOWNWIND OF THE MTNS. THE LATEST MAV FOR INSTANCE
BRINGS KHIE AND KBML DOWN TO THE UPPER TEENS. TO OFFSET THIS BIAS
I HAVE BLENDED IN SOME 2 M TEMPS FROM REGIONAL SCALE MODEL
GUIDANCE TO PROVIDE AN ELEMENT CAA MIXED LAYER. OVERALL THIS
LOWERED THE PREVIOUS FORECAST A DEGREE OR TWO. THE GRADIENT FLOW
MAY BE ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE FROST FOR MOST AREAS...BUT TEMPS
REGARDLESS LOOK TO FALL BELOW FREEZING FOR A LARGE PORTION OF THE
NRN FORECAST AREA. I EXPANDED THE FREEZE WATCH TO AREAS ON THE
BORDERLINE OF 32 DEGREES TO HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR A COLDER
FORECAST SOLUTION. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE IF RIDGING CAN MOVE IN
FASTER...ALLOWING THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO DECOUPLE. THIS WOULD MOST
LIKELY HAPPEN OVER WRN ZONES...SO THE MOST UNCERTAINTY IN THE
FORECAST LIES IN THOSE AREAS.

IT WILL BE A COOL AND BREEZY DAY SAT IN THE POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS.
WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON DEW POINT FORECASTS DURING THE DAY.
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN THE LOW TO MID 20S...WHILE BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
SHOW THE DEPTH OF MIXED LAYER HINTING AT REALITY BEING CLOSER TO
THE LOW TO MID TEENS. THIS WOULD BRING RH VALUES WELL BELOW 25
PERCENT...AND COUPLED WITH WINDS AND RECENT DRYNESS COULD CAUSE
SOME FIRE DANGER ISSUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
500MB PATTERN TRANSITIONS TO BLOCKY SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN NEXT WEEK
AS RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE ERN CONUS AND WRN ATLANTIC AND 500MB
JET RETREATS WELL POLEWARD. THIS WILL LEAD TO WARM AND MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS MOVING IN...WITH POTENTIAL FOR SCT TSRA AT TIMES AS WE
ARE ON THE SRN PERIPHERY OF IMPULSES MOVING BY IN THE STRONGER
500 MB TO OUR N.

SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE A SEASONABLY FAIR DAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
70S AND A DECENT WEST WIND WILL KEEP THE COOLER MARINE AIR MAINLY
OFFSHORE...EXCEPT MAYBE AT THE BEACHES. SUNDAY NIGHT LOOKS CLEAR
AND MORE MILD THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS WITH LOWS IN THE MID 40S N...TO
MID 50S S. DECENT WAA BEGINS TO DEVELOP TO OUR WEST ON
MONDAY...AND SHOULD CLOUDS OVERSPREAD WRN ZONES AT LEAST DURING
THE AFTERNOON...BUT THINKING ANY RAIN/SHOWERS WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL
MON NIGHT. THE SW FLOW SHOULD WARM TEMPS INLAND WELL INTO THE
MID-UPPER 70S...BUT WILL COOL THE COAST DOWN...ESPECIALLY THE MID
COAST.

DECENT MID-LVL WAA MOVES THROUGH MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING...AND
SHOULD PRODUCE A PERIOD OF RAIN OR SOME CONVECTIVE SHOWERS DURING
THIS TIMEFRAME. TDS RISE QUICKLY BEHIND THIS WARM FRONT SHOOTING
UP INTO THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S. WED-FRI WILL BE WARM AND
HUMID...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY RUNNING 80-85 INLAND...AND IN THE 70S
ON THE COAST. SOME WAVES WILL INEVITABLY MOVE OVER THE TOP OF THE
RIDGE...SO THERE WILL BE THE THREAT OF SHRA/TSRA...BUT TIMING
THIS FAR OUT IS A GUESS AT BEST.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THRU SAT. COLD FRONT CROSSING
THE FORECAST AREA WILL KICK OFF SCATTERED SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS INTERIOR WRN ME. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS MAY CONTAIN SOME
THUNDER...THOUGH THE PROBABILITY IS LOW. AT ALL TERMINALS NW WIND
GUSTS TO 25 KTS ARE POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT. GUSTY WINDS
CONTINUE AGAIN SAT.

LONG TERM...VFR EXPECTED SAT NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED MON NIGHT INTO AT LEAST TUE MORNING IS
SHRA AND LOW CLOUDS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS TODAY...WITH STRONG
CAA TO FOLLOW BEHIND IT. WINDS WILL GUST ABOVE 25 KTS LATE TONIGHT
INTO SAT MORNING. SEAS WILL BUILD TO NEAR 5 FT ON THE OUTER WATERS
BEFORE SLOWLY DIMINISHING SAT.

LONG TERM...WEST WINDS SUNDAY SHIFT TO SW ON MONDAY...AND WILL
GUST TO AROUND 20 KT BOTH DAYS BUT ARE EXPECTED TO BE SUB-SCA
LVLS. IN GENERAL WINDS WILL REMAIN BLO SCA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. SOME SEAS WELL OFFSHORE COULD REACH 5 FT LATE MON AND
TUE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY AIR MASS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TODAY. COOLER TEMPERATURES
WILL KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES GENERALLY AROUND 25 PERCENT.
LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITIES MAY BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST...WHERE
TEMPERATURES MAY CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 70S. AS COLD FRONT CROSSES
THE AREA WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY FROM THE WEST NORTHWEST. AIR
MASS WILL BECOME WINDIER AND DRIER ON SATURDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FREEZE WATCH FROM 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY
     MORNING FOR MEZ007>009-012-013.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR MEZ007>009-012>014-018>028.
NH...FREEZE WATCH FROM 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY
     MORNING FOR NHZ001>009-011.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR NHZ004-006>015.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$
ES



000
FXUS61 KGYX 221551
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1151 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS NEW ENGLAND TODAY...SETTING OFF A FEW
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH NEW ENGLAND ON
MONDAY...AND CROSS THE AREAS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY....PROVIDING
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. WARM AND MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...

1150 AM...MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO 1ST PERIOD GRIDS TO INCORPORATE
THE LATEST MESONET AND SATELLITE TRENDS.

PREV DISC...
950 AM...MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO 1ST PERIOD GRIDS TO INCORPORATE THE
LATEST MESONET.

PREV DISC...
UPDATE...A FEW MINOR CHANGES TO REFLECT CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL
TRENDS. DID INCLUDE SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POP S OF THE MTNS THIS
MORNING...AS A BAND OF VERY LIGHT SHOWERS DRIFTS THRU THE AREA ON
THE NW SIDE OF WEAK COASTAL LOW PRES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A SEASONABLY STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...USHERING IN SOME VERY CHILLY AIR. PRIOR
TO ITS ARRIVAL AREAS E OF THE MTNS SHOULD WARM SUFFICIENTLY TO
PROVIDE A LITTLE BIT OF FUEL FOR SHOWERS TO POP UP ALONG THE
FRONT.

MESOSCALE GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THAT A BAND OR
CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP QUICKLY ALONG THE MTNS AND RACE
EWD TOWARDS THE COAST...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WRN ME. FARTHER S AND
W...THE AIR MASS WILL BE QUITE DRY AND SOUNDINGS SUGGEST IT WILL
BE DIFFICULT TO SATURATE ENOUGH FOR PCPN. DEEPER MOIST LAYERS WILL
RESIDE ACROSS WRN ME...AND WILL SUPPORT LIKELY POP FOR PARTS OF
THE MIDCOAST. LOW FREEZING LEVELS WILL ALSO SUPPORT PLENTY OF ICE
IN THE CLOUDS...AND CANNOT RULE OUT SOME THUNDER OR SMALL
HAIL/GRAUPEL. STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL RESIDE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER
THANKS TO THE DRY AIR MASS...SO SOME OF THESE SHOWERS/TSTMS MAY BE
GUSTY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING H8 TEMPS BETWEEN -4 AND -8 C
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS IS NEARLY A 3 SIGMA DEPARTURE FROM
NORMAL...AND MODEL GUIDANCE HAS EVEN COOLED A LITTLE FROM LAST
NIGHT. SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY SUGGESTS THIS COLD SHOT WILL FALL WELL
WITHIN THE LOWEST 10 PERCENT OF OBSERVATIONS FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. THIS ALL ADDS UP TO A LOW TEMP FORECAST AT LEAST AS COLD AS
WED NIGHT...AND PROBABLY A FEW DEGREES COOLER.

THAT BEING SAID...MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL REMAIN AT LEAST PARTIALLY MIXED AS CAA CONTINUES
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. MAV/MET GUIDANCE CAN OFTEN BE TOO AGGRESSIVE
IN DECOUPLING THE BOUNDARY LAYER...THUS FORECASTING MIN TEMPS TOO
COLD ESPECIALLY DOWNWIND OF THE MTNS. THE LATEST MAV FOR INSTANCE
BRINGS KHIE AND KBML DOWN TO THE UPPER TEENS. TO OFFSET THIS BIAS
I HAVE BLENDED IN SOME 2 M TEMPS FROM REGIONAL SCALE MODEL
GUIDANCE TO PROVIDE AN ELEMENT CAA MIXED LAYER. OVERALL THIS
LOWERED THE PREVIOUS FORECAST A DEGREE OR TWO. THE GRADIENT FLOW
MAY BE ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE FROST FOR MOST AREAS...BUT TEMPS
REGARDLESS LOOK TO FALL BELOW FREEZING FOR A LARGE PORTION OF THE
NRN FORECAST AREA. I EXPANDED THE FREEZE WATCH TO AREAS ON THE
BORDERLINE OF 32 DEGREES TO HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR A COLDER
FORECAST SOLUTION. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE IF RIDGING CAN MOVE IN
FASTER...ALLOWING THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO DECOUPLE. THIS WOULD MOST
LIKELY HAPPEN OVER WRN ZONES...SO THE MOST UNCERTAINTY IN THE
FORECAST LIES IN THOSE AREAS.

IT WILL BE A COOL AND BREEZY DAY SAT IN THE POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS.
WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON DEW POINT FORECASTS DURING THE DAY.
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN THE LOW TO MID 20S...WHILE BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
SHOW THE DEPTH OF MIXED LAYER HINTING AT REALITY BEING CLOSER TO
THE LOW TO MID TEENS. THIS WOULD BRING RH VALUES WELL BELOW 25
PERCENT...AND COUPLED WITH WINDS AND RECENT DRYNESS COULD CAUSE
SOME FIRE DANGER ISSUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
500MB PATTERN TRANSITIONS TO BLOCKY SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN NEXT WEEK
AS RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE ERN CONUS AND WRN ATLANTIC AND 500MB
JET RETREATS WELL POLEWARD. THIS WILL LEAD TO WARM AND MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS MOVING IN...WITH POTENTIAL FOR SCT TSRA AT TIMES AS WE
ARE ON THE SRN PERIPHERY OF IMPULSES MOVING BY IN THE STRONGER
500 MB TO OUR N.

SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE A SEASONABLY FAIR DAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
70S AND A DECENT WEST WIND WILL KEEP THE COOLER MARINE AIR MAINLY
OFFSHORE...EXCEPT MAYBE AT THE BEACHES. SUNDAY NIGHT LOOKS CLEAR
AND MORE MILD THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS WITH LOWS IN THE MID 40S N...TO
MID 50S S. DECENT WAA BEGINS TO DEVELOP TO OUR WEST ON
MONDAY...AND SHOULD CLOUDS OVERSPREAD WRN ZONES AT LEAST DURING
THE AFTERNOON...BUT THINKING ANY RAIN/SHOWERS WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL
MON NIGHT. THE SW FLOW SHOULD WARM TEMPS INLAND WELL INTO THE
MID-UPPER 70S...BUT WILL COOL THE COAST DOWN...ESPECIALLY THE MID
COAST.

DECENT MID-LVL WAA MOVES THROUGH MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING...AND
SHOULD PRODUCE A PERIOD OF RAIN OR SOME CONVECTIVE SHOWERS DURING
THIS TIMEFRAME. TDS RISE QUICKLY BEHIND THIS WARM FRONT SHOOTING
UP INTO THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S. WED-FRI WILL BE WARM AND
HUMID...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY RUNNING 80-85 INLAND...AND IN THE 70S
ON THE COAST. SOME WAVES WILL INEVITABLY MOVE OVER THE TOP OF THE
RIDGE...SO THERE WILL BE THE THREAT OF SHRA/TSRA...BUT TIMING
THIS FAR OUT IS A GUESS AT BEST.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THRU SAT. COLD FRONT CROSSING
THE FORECAST AREA WILL KICK OFF SCATTERED SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS INTERIOR WRN ME. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS MAY CONTAIN SOME
THUNDER...THOUGH THE PROBABILITY IS LOW. AT ALL TERMINALS NW WIND
GUSTS TO 25 KTS ARE POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT. GUSTY WINDS
CONTINUE AGAIN SAT.

LONG TERM...VFR EXPECTED SAT NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED MON NIGHT INTO AT LEAST TUE MORNING IS
SHRA AND LOW CLOUDS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS TODAY...WITH STRONG
CAA TO FOLLOW BEHIND IT. WINDS WILL GUST ABOVE 25 KTS LATE TONIGHT
INTO SAT MORNING. SEAS WILL BUILD TO NEAR 5 FT ON THE OUTER WATERS
BEFORE SLOWLY DIMINISHING SAT.

LONG TERM...WEST WINDS SUNDAY SHIFT TO SW ON MONDAY...AND WILL
GUST TO AROUND 20 KT BOTH DAYS BUT ARE EXPECTED TO BE SUB-SCA
LVLS. IN GENERAL WINDS WILL REMAIN BLO SCA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. SOME SEAS WELL OFFSHORE COULD REACH 5 FT LATE MON AND
TUE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY AIR MASS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TODAY. COOLER TEMPERATURES
WILL KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES GENERALLY AROUND 25 PERCENT.
LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITIES MAY BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST...WHERE
TEMPERATURES MAY CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 70S. AS COLD FRONT CROSSES
THE AREA WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY FROM THE WEST NORTHWEST. AIR
MASS WILL BECOME WINDIER AND DRIER ON SATURDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FREEZE WATCH FROM 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY
     MORNING FOR MEZ007>009-012-013.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR MEZ007>009-012>014-018>028.
NH...FREEZE WATCH FROM 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY
     MORNING FOR NHZ001>009-011.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR NHZ004-006>015.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$
ES



000
FXUS61 KGYX 221400
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1000 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS NEW ENGLAND TODAY...SETTING OFF A FEW
SHOWERS ANS THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY...AND
CROSS THE AREAS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY....PROVIDING ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. WARM AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...

950 AM...MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO 1ST PERIOD GRIDS TO INCORPORATE THE
LATEST MESONET.

PREV DISC...
UPDATE...A FEW MINOR CHANGES TO REFLECT CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL
TRENDS. DID INCLUDE SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POP S OF THE MTNS THIS
MORNING...AS A BAND OF VERY LIGHT SHOWERS DRIFTS THRU THE AREA ON
THE NW SIDE OF WEAK COASTAL LOW PRES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A SEASONABLY STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...USHERING IN SOME VERY CHILLY AIR. PRIOR
TO ITS ARRIVAL AREAS E OF THE MTNS SHOULD WARM SUFFICIENTLY TO
PROVIDE A LITTLE BIT OF FUEL FOR SHOWERS TO POP UP ALONG THE
FRONT.

MESOSCALE GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THAT A BAND OR
CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP QUICKLY ALONG THE MTNS AND RACE
EWD TOWARDS THE COAST...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WRN ME. FARTHER S AND
W...THE AIR MASS WILL BE QUITE DRY AND SOUNDINGS SUGGEST IT WILL
BE DIFFICULT TO SATURATE ENOUGH FOR PCPN. DEEPER MOIST LAYERS WILL
RESIDE ACROSS WRN ME...AND WILL SUPPORT LIKELY POP FOR PARTS OF
THE MIDCOAST. LOW FREEZING LEVELS WILL ALSO SUPPORT PLENTY OF ICE
IN THE CLOUDS...AND CANNOT RULE OUT SOME THUNDER OR SMALL
HAIL/GRAUPEL. STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL RESIDE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER
THANKS TO THE DRY AIR MASS...SO SOME OF THESE SHOWERS/TSTMS MAY BE
GUSTY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING H8 TEMPS BETWEEN -4 AND -8 C
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS IS NEARLY A 3 SIGMA DEPARTURE FROM
NORMAL...AND MODEL GUIDANCE HAS EVEN COOLED A LITTLE FROM LAST
NIGHT. SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY SUGGESTS THIS COLD SHOT WILL FALL WELL
WITHIN THE LOWEST 10 PERCENT OF OBSERVATIONS FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. THIS ALL ADDS UP TO A LOW TEMP FORECAST AT LEAST AS COLD AS
WED NIGHT...AND PROBABLY A FEW DEGREES COOLER.

THAT BEING SAID...MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL REMAIN AT LEAST PARTIALLY MIXED AS CAA CONTINUES
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. MAV/MET GUIDANCE CAN OFTEN BE TOO AGGRESSIVE
IN DECOUPLING THE BOUNDARY LAYER...THUS FORECASTING MIN TEMPS TOO
COLD ESPECIALLY DOWNWIND OF THE MTNS. THE LATEST MAV FOR INSTANCE
BRINGS KHIE AND KBML DOWN TO THE UPPER TEENS. TO OFFSET THIS BIAS
I HAVE BLENDED IN SOME 2 M TEMPS FROM REGIONAL SCALE MODEL
GUIDANCE TO PROVIDE AN ELEMENT CAA MIXED LAYER. OVERALL THIS
LOWERED THE PREVIOUS FORECAST A DEGREE OR TWO. THE GRADIENT FLOW
MAY BE ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE FROST FOR MOST AREAS...BUT TEMPS
REGARDLESS LOOK TO FALL BELOW FREEZING FOR A LARGE PORTION OF THE
NRN FORECAST AREA. I EXPANDED THE FREEZE WATCH TO AREAS ON THE
BORDERLINE OF 32 DEGREES TO HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR A COLDER
FORECAST SOLUTION. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE IF RIDGING CAN MOVE IN
FASTER...ALLOWING THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO DECOUPLE. THIS WOULD MOST
LIKELY HAPPEN OVER WRN ZONES...SO THE MOST UNCERTAINTY IN THE
FORECAST LIES IN THOSE AREAS.

IT WILL BE A COOL AND BREEZY DAY SAT IN THE POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS.
WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON DEW POINT FORECASTS DURING THE DAY.
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN THE LOW TO MID 20S...WHILE BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
SHOW THE DEPTH OF MIXED LAYER HINTING AT REALITY BEING CLOSER TO
THE LOW TO MID TEENS. THIS WOULD BRING RH VALUES WELL BELOW 25
PERCENT...AND COUPLED WITH WINDS AND RECENT DRYNESS COULD CAUSE
SOME FIRE DANGER ISSUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
500MB PATTERN TRANSITIONS TO BLOCKY SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN NEXT WEEK
AS RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE ERN CONUS AND WRN ATLANTIC AND 500MB
JET RETREATS WELL POLEWARD. THIS WILL LEAD TO WARM AND MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS MOVING IN...WITH POTENTIAL FOR SCT TSRA AT TIMES AS WE
ARE ON THE SRN PERIPHERY OF IMPULSES MOVING BY IN THE STRONGER
500 MB TO OUR N.

SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE A SEASONABLY FAIR DAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
70S AND A DECENT WEST WIND WILL KEEP THE COOLER MARINE AIR MAINLY
OFFSHORE...EXCEPT MAYBE AT THE BEACHES. SUNDAY NIGHT LOOKS CLEAR
AND MORE MILD THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS WITH LOWS IN THE MID 40S N...TO
MID 50S S. DECENT WAA BEGINS TO DEVELOP TO OUR WEST ON
MONDAY...AND SHOULD CLOUDS OVERSPREAD WRN ZONES AT LEAST DURING
THE AFTERNOON...BUT THINKING ANY RAIN/SHOWERS WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL
MON NIGHT. THE SW FLOW SHOULD WARM TEMPS INLAND WELL INTO THE
MID-UPPER 70S...BUT WILL COOL THE COAST DOWN...ESPECIALLY THE MID
COAST.

DECENT MID-LVL WAA MOVES THROUGH MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING...AND
SHOULD PRODUCE A PERIOD OF RAIN OR SOME CONVECTIVE SHOWERS DURING
THIS TIMEFRAME. TDS RISE QUICKLY BEHIND THIS WARM FRONT SHOOTING
UP INTO THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S. WED-FRI WILL BE WARM AND
HUMID...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY RUNNING 80-85 INLAND...AND IN THE 70S
ON THE COAST. SOME WAVES WILL INEVITABLY MOVE OVER THE TOP OF THE
RIDGE...SO THERE WILL BE THE THREAT OF SHRA/TSRA...BUT TIMING
THIS FAR OUT IS A GUESS AT BEST.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THRU SAT. COLD FRONT CROSSING
THE FORECAST AREA WILL KICK OFF SCATTERED SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS INTERIOR WRN ME. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS MAY CONTAIN SOME
THUNDER...THOUGH THE PROBABILITY IS LOW. AT ALL TERMINALS NW WIND
GUSTS TO 25 KTS ARE POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT. GUSTY WINDS
CONTINUE AGAIN SAT.

LONG TERM...VFR EXPECTED SAT NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED MON NIGHT INTO AT LEAST TUE MORNING IS
SHRA AND LOW CLOUDS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS TODAY...WITH STRONG
CAA TO FOLLOW BEHIND IT. WINDS WILL GUST ABOVE 25 KTS LATE TONIGHT
INTO SAT MORNING. SEAS WILL BUILD TO NEAR 5 FT ON THE OUTER WATERS
BEFORE SLOWLY DIMINISHING SAT.

LONG TERM...WEST WINDS SUNDAY SHIFT TO SW ON MONDAY...AND WILL
GUST TO AROUND 20 KT BOTH DAYS BUT ARE EXPECTED TO BE SUB-SCA
LVLS. IN GENERAL WINDS WILL REMAIN BLO SCA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. SOME SEAS WELL OFFSHORE COULD REACH 5 FT LATE MON AND
TUE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY AIR MASS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TODAY. COOLER TEMPERATURES
WILL KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES GENERALLY AROUND 25 PERCENT.
LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITIES MAY BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST...WHERE
TEMPERATURES MAY CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 70S. AS COLD FRONT CROSSES
THE AREA WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY FROM THE WEST NORTHWEST. AIR
MASS WILL BECOME WINDIER AND DRIER ON SATURDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FREEZE WATCH FROM 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY
     MORNING FOR MEZ007>009-012-013.
NH...FREEZE WATCH FROM 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY
     MORNING FOR NHZ001>009-011.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$
ES




000
FXUS61 KGYX 221400
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1000 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS NEW ENGLAND TODAY...SETTING OFF A FEW
SHOWERS ANS THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY...AND
CROSS THE AREAS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY....PROVIDING ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. WARM AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...

950 AM...MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO 1ST PERIOD GRIDS TO INCORPORATE THE
LATEST MESONET.

PREV DISC...
UPDATE...A FEW MINOR CHANGES TO REFLECT CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL
TRENDS. DID INCLUDE SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POP S OF THE MTNS THIS
MORNING...AS A BAND OF VERY LIGHT SHOWERS DRIFTS THRU THE AREA ON
THE NW SIDE OF WEAK COASTAL LOW PRES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A SEASONABLY STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...USHERING IN SOME VERY CHILLY AIR. PRIOR
TO ITS ARRIVAL AREAS E OF THE MTNS SHOULD WARM SUFFICIENTLY TO
PROVIDE A LITTLE BIT OF FUEL FOR SHOWERS TO POP UP ALONG THE
FRONT.

MESOSCALE GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THAT A BAND OR
CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP QUICKLY ALONG THE MTNS AND RACE
EWD TOWARDS THE COAST...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WRN ME. FARTHER S AND
W...THE AIR MASS WILL BE QUITE DRY AND SOUNDINGS SUGGEST IT WILL
BE DIFFICULT TO SATURATE ENOUGH FOR PCPN. DEEPER MOIST LAYERS WILL
RESIDE ACROSS WRN ME...AND WILL SUPPORT LIKELY POP FOR PARTS OF
THE MIDCOAST. LOW FREEZING LEVELS WILL ALSO SUPPORT PLENTY OF ICE
IN THE CLOUDS...AND CANNOT RULE OUT SOME THUNDER OR SMALL
HAIL/GRAUPEL. STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL RESIDE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER
THANKS TO THE DRY AIR MASS...SO SOME OF THESE SHOWERS/TSTMS MAY BE
GUSTY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING H8 TEMPS BETWEEN -4 AND -8 C
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS IS NEARLY A 3 SIGMA DEPARTURE FROM
NORMAL...AND MODEL GUIDANCE HAS EVEN COOLED A LITTLE FROM LAST
NIGHT. SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY SUGGESTS THIS COLD SHOT WILL FALL WELL
WITHIN THE LOWEST 10 PERCENT OF OBSERVATIONS FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. THIS ALL ADDS UP TO A LOW TEMP FORECAST AT LEAST AS COLD AS
WED NIGHT...AND PROBABLY A FEW DEGREES COOLER.

THAT BEING SAID...MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL REMAIN AT LEAST PARTIALLY MIXED AS CAA CONTINUES
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. MAV/MET GUIDANCE CAN OFTEN BE TOO AGGRESSIVE
IN DECOUPLING THE BOUNDARY LAYER...THUS FORECASTING MIN TEMPS TOO
COLD ESPECIALLY DOWNWIND OF THE MTNS. THE LATEST MAV FOR INSTANCE
BRINGS KHIE AND KBML DOWN TO THE UPPER TEENS. TO OFFSET THIS BIAS
I HAVE BLENDED IN SOME 2 M TEMPS FROM REGIONAL SCALE MODEL
GUIDANCE TO PROVIDE AN ELEMENT CAA MIXED LAYER. OVERALL THIS
LOWERED THE PREVIOUS FORECAST A DEGREE OR TWO. THE GRADIENT FLOW
MAY BE ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE FROST FOR MOST AREAS...BUT TEMPS
REGARDLESS LOOK TO FALL BELOW FREEZING FOR A LARGE PORTION OF THE
NRN FORECAST AREA. I EXPANDED THE FREEZE WATCH TO AREAS ON THE
BORDERLINE OF 32 DEGREES TO HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR A COLDER
FORECAST SOLUTION. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE IF RIDGING CAN MOVE IN
FASTER...ALLOWING THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO DECOUPLE. THIS WOULD MOST
LIKELY HAPPEN OVER WRN ZONES...SO THE MOST UNCERTAINTY IN THE
FORECAST LIES IN THOSE AREAS.

IT WILL BE A COOL AND BREEZY DAY SAT IN THE POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS.
WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON DEW POINT FORECASTS DURING THE DAY.
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN THE LOW TO MID 20S...WHILE BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
SHOW THE DEPTH OF MIXED LAYER HINTING AT REALITY BEING CLOSER TO
THE LOW TO MID TEENS. THIS WOULD BRING RH VALUES WELL BELOW 25
PERCENT...AND COUPLED WITH WINDS AND RECENT DRYNESS COULD CAUSE
SOME FIRE DANGER ISSUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
500MB PATTERN TRANSITIONS TO BLOCKY SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN NEXT WEEK
AS RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE ERN CONUS AND WRN ATLANTIC AND 500MB
JET RETREATS WELL POLEWARD. THIS WILL LEAD TO WARM AND MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS MOVING IN...WITH POTENTIAL FOR SCT TSRA AT TIMES AS WE
ARE ON THE SRN PERIPHERY OF IMPULSES MOVING BY IN THE STRONGER
500 MB TO OUR N.

SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE A SEASONABLY FAIR DAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
70S AND A DECENT WEST WIND WILL KEEP THE COOLER MARINE AIR MAINLY
OFFSHORE...EXCEPT MAYBE AT THE BEACHES. SUNDAY NIGHT LOOKS CLEAR
AND MORE MILD THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS WITH LOWS IN THE MID 40S N...TO
MID 50S S. DECENT WAA BEGINS TO DEVELOP TO OUR WEST ON
MONDAY...AND SHOULD CLOUDS OVERSPREAD WRN ZONES AT LEAST DURING
THE AFTERNOON...BUT THINKING ANY RAIN/SHOWERS WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL
MON NIGHT. THE SW FLOW SHOULD WARM TEMPS INLAND WELL INTO THE
MID-UPPER 70S...BUT WILL COOL THE COAST DOWN...ESPECIALLY THE MID
COAST.

DECENT MID-LVL WAA MOVES THROUGH MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING...AND
SHOULD PRODUCE A PERIOD OF RAIN OR SOME CONVECTIVE SHOWERS DURING
THIS TIMEFRAME. TDS RISE QUICKLY BEHIND THIS WARM FRONT SHOOTING
UP INTO THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S. WED-FRI WILL BE WARM AND
HUMID...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY RUNNING 80-85 INLAND...AND IN THE 70S
ON THE COAST. SOME WAVES WILL INEVITABLY MOVE OVER THE TOP OF THE
RIDGE...SO THERE WILL BE THE THREAT OF SHRA/TSRA...BUT TIMING
THIS FAR OUT IS A GUESS AT BEST.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THRU SAT. COLD FRONT CROSSING
THE FORECAST AREA WILL KICK OFF SCATTERED SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS INTERIOR WRN ME. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS MAY CONTAIN SOME
THUNDER...THOUGH THE PROBABILITY IS LOW. AT ALL TERMINALS NW WIND
GUSTS TO 25 KTS ARE POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT. GUSTY WINDS
CONTINUE AGAIN SAT.

LONG TERM...VFR EXPECTED SAT NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED MON NIGHT INTO AT LEAST TUE MORNING IS
SHRA AND LOW CLOUDS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS TODAY...WITH STRONG
CAA TO FOLLOW BEHIND IT. WINDS WILL GUST ABOVE 25 KTS LATE TONIGHT
INTO SAT MORNING. SEAS WILL BUILD TO NEAR 5 FT ON THE OUTER WATERS
BEFORE SLOWLY DIMINISHING SAT.

LONG TERM...WEST WINDS SUNDAY SHIFT TO SW ON MONDAY...AND WILL
GUST TO AROUND 20 KT BOTH DAYS BUT ARE EXPECTED TO BE SUB-SCA
LVLS. IN GENERAL WINDS WILL REMAIN BLO SCA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. SOME SEAS WELL OFFSHORE COULD REACH 5 FT LATE MON AND
TUE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY AIR MASS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TODAY. COOLER TEMPERATURES
WILL KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES GENERALLY AROUND 25 PERCENT.
LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITIES MAY BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST...WHERE
TEMPERATURES MAY CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 70S. AS COLD FRONT CROSSES
THE AREA WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY FROM THE WEST NORTHWEST. AIR
MASS WILL BECOME WINDIER AND DRIER ON SATURDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FREEZE WATCH FROM 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY
     MORNING FOR MEZ007>009-012-013.
NH...FREEZE WATCH FROM 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY
     MORNING FOR NHZ001>009-011.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$
ES




000
FXUS61 KGYX 221400
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1000 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS NEW ENGLAND TODAY...SETTING OFF A FEW
SHOWERS ANS THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY...AND
CROSS THE AREAS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY....PROVIDING ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. WARM AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...

950 AM...MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO 1ST PERIOD GRIDS TO INCORPORATE THE
LATEST MESONET.

PREV DISC...
UPDATE...A FEW MINOR CHANGES TO REFLECT CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL
TRENDS. DID INCLUDE SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POP S OF THE MTNS THIS
MORNING...AS A BAND OF VERY LIGHT SHOWERS DRIFTS THRU THE AREA ON
THE NW SIDE OF WEAK COASTAL LOW PRES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A SEASONABLY STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...USHERING IN SOME VERY CHILLY AIR. PRIOR
TO ITS ARRIVAL AREAS E OF THE MTNS SHOULD WARM SUFFICIENTLY TO
PROVIDE A LITTLE BIT OF FUEL FOR SHOWERS TO POP UP ALONG THE
FRONT.

MESOSCALE GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THAT A BAND OR
CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP QUICKLY ALONG THE MTNS AND RACE
EWD TOWARDS THE COAST...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WRN ME. FARTHER S AND
W...THE AIR MASS WILL BE QUITE DRY AND SOUNDINGS SUGGEST IT WILL
BE DIFFICULT TO SATURATE ENOUGH FOR PCPN. DEEPER MOIST LAYERS WILL
RESIDE ACROSS WRN ME...AND WILL SUPPORT LIKELY POP FOR PARTS OF
THE MIDCOAST. LOW FREEZING LEVELS WILL ALSO SUPPORT PLENTY OF ICE
IN THE CLOUDS...AND CANNOT RULE OUT SOME THUNDER OR SMALL
HAIL/GRAUPEL. STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL RESIDE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER
THANKS TO THE DRY AIR MASS...SO SOME OF THESE SHOWERS/TSTMS MAY BE
GUSTY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING H8 TEMPS BETWEEN -4 AND -8 C
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS IS NEARLY A 3 SIGMA DEPARTURE FROM
NORMAL...AND MODEL GUIDANCE HAS EVEN COOLED A LITTLE FROM LAST
NIGHT. SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY SUGGESTS THIS COLD SHOT WILL FALL WELL
WITHIN THE LOWEST 10 PERCENT OF OBSERVATIONS FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. THIS ALL ADDS UP TO A LOW TEMP FORECAST AT LEAST AS COLD AS
WED NIGHT...AND PROBABLY A FEW DEGREES COOLER.

THAT BEING SAID...MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL REMAIN AT LEAST PARTIALLY MIXED AS CAA CONTINUES
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. MAV/MET GUIDANCE CAN OFTEN BE TOO AGGRESSIVE
IN DECOUPLING THE BOUNDARY LAYER...THUS FORECASTING MIN TEMPS TOO
COLD ESPECIALLY DOWNWIND OF THE MTNS. THE LATEST MAV FOR INSTANCE
BRINGS KHIE AND KBML DOWN TO THE UPPER TEENS. TO OFFSET THIS BIAS
I HAVE BLENDED IN SOME 2 M TEMPS FROM REGIONAL SCALE MODEL
GUIDANCE TO PROVIDE AN ELEMENT CAA MIXED LAYER. OVERALL THIS
LOWERED THE PREVIOUS FORECAST A DEGREE OR TWO. THE GRADIENT FLOW
MAY BE ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE FROST FOR MOST AREAS...BUT TEMPS
REGARDLESS LOOK TO FALL BELOW FREEZING FOR A LARGE PORTION OF THE
NRN FORECAST AREA. I EXPANDED THE FREEZE WATCH TO AREAS ON THE
BORDERLINE OF 32 DEGREES TO HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR A COLDER
FORECAST SOLUTION. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE IF RIDGING CAN MOVE IN
FASTER...ALLOWING THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO DECOUPLE. THIS WOULD MOST
LIKELY HAPPEN OVER WRN ZONES...SO THE MOST UNCERTAINTY IN THE
FORECAST LIES IN THOSE AREAS.

IT WILL BE A COOL AND BREEZY DAY SAT IN THE POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS.
WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON DEW POINT FORECASTS DURING THE DAY.
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN THE LOW TO MID 20S...WHILE BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
SHOW THE DEPTH OF MIXED LAYER HINTING AT REALITY BEING CLOSER TO
THE LOW TO MID TEENS. THIS WOULD BRING RH VALUES WELL BELOW 25
PERCENT...AND COUPLED WITH WINDS AND RECENT DRYNESS COULD CAUSE
SOME FIRE DANGER ISSUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
500MB PATTERN TRANSITIONS TO BLOCKY SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN NEXT WEEK
AS RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE ERN CONUS AND WRN ATLANTIC AND 500MB
JET RETREATS WELL POLEWARD. THIS WILL LEAD TO WARM AND MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS MOVING IN...WITH POTENTIAL FOR SCT TSRA AT TIMES AS WE
ARE ON THE SRN PERIPHERY OF IMPULSES MOVING BY IN THE STRONGER
500 MB TO OUR N.

SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE A SEASONABLY FAIR DAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
70S AND A DECENT WEST WIND WILL KEEP THE COOLER MARINE AIR MAINLY
OFFSHORE...EXCEPT MAYBE AT THE BEACHES. SUNDAY NIGHT LOOKS CLEAR
AND MORE MILD THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS WITH LOWS IN THE MID 40S N...TO
MID 50S S. DECENT WAA BEGINS TO DEVELOP TO OUR WEST ON
MONDAY...AND SHOULD CLOUDS OVERSPREAD WRN ZONES AT LEAST DURING
THE AFTERNOON...BUT THINKING ANY RAIN/SHOWERS WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL
MON NIGHT. THE SW FLOW SHOULD WARM TEMPS INLAND WELL INTO THE
MID-UPPER 70S...BUT WILL COOL THE COAST DOWN...ESPECIALLY THE MID
COAST.

DECENT MID-LVL WAA MOVES THROUGH MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING...AND
SHOULD PRODUCE A PERIOD OF RAIN OR SOME CONVECTIVE SHOWERS DURING
THIS TIMEFRAME. TDS RISE QUICKLY BEHIND THIS WARM FRONT SHOOTING
UP INTO THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S. WED-FRI WILL BE WARM AND
HUMID...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY RUNNING 80-85 INLAND...AND IN THE 70S
ON THE COAST. SOME WAVES WILL INEVITABLY MOVE OVER THE TOP OF THE
RIDGE...SO THERE WILL BE THE THREAT OF SHRA/TSRA...BUT TIMING
THIS FAR OUT IS A GUESS AT BEST.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THRU SAT. COLD FRONT CROSSING
THE FORECAST AREA WILL KICK OFF SCATTERED SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS INTERIOR WRN ME. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS MAY CONTAIN SOME
THUNDER...THOUGH THE PROBABILITY IS LOW. AT ALL TERMINALS NW WIND
GUSTS TO 25 KTS ARE POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT. GUSTY WINDS
CONTINUE AGAIN SAT.

LONG TERM...VFR EXPECTED SAT NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED MON NIGHT INTO AT LEAST TUE MORNING IS
SHRA AND LOW CLOUDS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS TODAY...WITH STRONG
CAA TO FOLLOW BEHIND IT. WINDS WILL GUST ABOVE 25 KTS LATE TONIGHT
INTO SAT MORNING. SEAS WILL BUILD TO NEAR 5 FT ON THE OUTER WATERS
BEFORE SLOWLY DIMINISHING SAT.

LONG TERM...WEST WINDS SUNDAY SHIFT TO SW ON MONDAY...AND WILL
GUST TO AROUND 20 KT BOTH DAYS BUT ARE EXPECTED TO BE SUB-SCA
LVLS. IN GENERAL WINDS WILL REMAIN BLO SCA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. SOME SEAS WELL OFFSHORE COULD REACH 5 FT LATE MON AND
TUE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY AIR MASS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TODAY. COOLER TEMPERATURES
WILL KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES GENERALLY AROUND 25 PERCENT.
LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITIES MAY BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST...WHERE
TEMPERATURES MAY CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 70S. AS COLD FRONT CROSSES
THE AREA WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY FROM THE WEST NORTHWEST. AIR
MASS WILL BECOME WINDIER AND DRIER ON SATURDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FREEZE WATCH FROM 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY
     MORNING FOR MEZ007>009-012-013.
NH...FREEZE WATCH FROM 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY
     MORNING FOR NHZ001>009-011.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$
ES




000
FXUS61 KGYX 221400
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1000 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS NEW ENGLAND TODAY...SETTING OFF A FEW
SHOWERS ANS THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY...AND
CROSS THE AREAS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY....PROVIDING ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. WARM AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...

950 AM...MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO 1ST PERIOD GRIDS TO INCORPORATE THE
LATEST MESONET.

PREV DISC...
UPDATE...A FEW MINOR CHANGES TO REFLECT CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL
TRENDS. DID INCLUDE SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POP S OF THE MTNS THIS
MORNING...AS A BAND OF VERY LIGHT SHOWERS DRIFTS THRU THE AREA ON
THE NW SIDE OF WEAK COASTAL LOW PRES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A SEASONABLY STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...USHERING IN SOME VERY CHILLY AIR. PRIOR
TO ITS ARRIVAL AREAS E OF THE MTNS SHOULD WARM SUFFICIENTLY TO
PROVIDE A LITTLE BIT OF FUEL FOR SHOWERS TO POP UP ALONG THE
FRONT.

MESOSCALE GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THAT A BAND OR
CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP QUICKLY ALONG THE MTNS AND RACE
EWD TOWARDS THE COAST...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WRN ME. FARTHER S AND
W...THE AIR MASS WILL BE QUITE DRY AND SOUNDINGS SUGGEST IT WILL
BE DIFFICULT TO SATURATE ENOUGH FOR PCPN. DEEPER MOIST LAYERS WILL
RESIDE ACROSS WRN ME...AND WILL SUPPORT LIKELY POP FOR PARTS OF
THE MIDCOAST. LOW FREEZING LEVELS WILL ALSO SUPPORT PLENTY OF ICE
IN THE CLOUDS...AND CANNOT RULE OUT SOME THUNDER OR SMALL
HAIL/GRAUPEL. STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL RESIDE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER
THANKS TO THE DRY AIR MASS...SO SOME OF THESE SHOWERS/TSTMS MAY BE
GUSTY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING H8 TEMPS BETWEEN -4 AND -8 C
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS IS NEARLY A 3 SIGMA DEPARTURE FROM
NORMAL...AND MODEL GUIDANCE HAS EVEN COOLED A LITTLE FROM LAST
NIGHT. SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY SUGGESTS THIS COLD SHOT WILL FALL WELL
WITHIN THE LOWEST 10 PERCENT OF OBSERVATIONS FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. THIS ALL ADDS UP TO A LOW TEMP FORECAST AT LEAST AS COLD AS
WED NIGHT...AND PROBABLY A FEW DEGREES COOLER.

THAT BEING SAID...MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL REMAIN AT LEAST PARTIALLY MIXED AS CAA CONTINUES
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. MAV/MET GUIDANCE CAN OFTEN BE TOO AGGRESSIVE
IN DECOUPLING THE BOUNDARY LAYER...THUS FORECASTING MIN TEMPS TOO
COLD ESPECIALLY DOWNWIND OF THE MTNS. THE LATEST MAV FOR INSTANCE
BRINGS KHIE AND KBML DOWN TO THE UPPER TEENS. TO OFFSET THIS BIAS
I HAVE BLENDED IN SOME 2 M TEMPS FROM REGIONAL SCALE MODEL
GUIDANCE TO PROVIDE AN ELEMENT CAA MIXED LAYER. OVERALL THIS
LOWERED THE PREVIOUS FORECAST A DEGREE OR TWO. THE GRADIENT FLOW
MAY BE ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE FROST FOR MOST AREAS...BUT TEMPS
REGARDLESS LOOK TO FALL BELOW FREEZING FOR A LARGE PORTION OF THE
NRN FORECAST AREA. I EXPANDED THE FREEZE WATCH TO AREAS ON THE
BORDERLINE OF 32 DEGREES TO HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR A COLDER
FORECAST SOLUTION. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE IF RIDGING CAN MOVE IN
FASTER...ALLOWING THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO DECOUPLE. THIS WOULD MOST
LIKELY HAPPEN OVER WRN ZONES...SO THE MOST UNCERTAINTY IN THE
FORECAST LIES IN THOSE AREAS.

IT WILL BE A COOL AND BREEZY DAY SAT IN THE POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS.
WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON DEW POINT FORECASTS DURING THE DAY.
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN THE LOW TO MID 20S...WHILE BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
SHOW THE DEPTH OF MIXED LAYER HINTING AT REALITY BEING CLOSER TO
THE LOW TO MID TEENS. THIS WOULD BRING RH VALUES WELL BELOW 25
PERCENT...AND COUPLED WITH WINDS AND RECENT DRYNESS COULD CAUSE
SOME FIRE DANGER ISSUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
500MB PATTERN TRANSITIONS TO BLOCKY SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN NEXT WEEK
AS RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE ERN CONUS AND WRN ATLANTIC AND 500MB
JET RETREATS WELL POLEWARD. THIS WILL LEAD TO WARM AND MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS MOVING IN...WITH POTENTIAL FOR SCT TSRA AT TIMES AS WE
ARE ON THE SRN PERIPHERY OF IMPULSES MOVING BY IN THE STRONGER
500 MB TO OUR N.

SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE A SEASONABLY FAIR DAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
70S AND A DECENT WEST WIND WILL KEEP THE COOLER MARINE AIR MAINLY
OFFSHORE...EXCEPT MAYBE AT THE BEACHES. SUNDAY NIGHT LOOKS CLEAR
AND MORE MILD THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS WITH LOWS IN THE MID 40S N...TO
MID 50S S. DECENT WAA BEGINS TO DEVELOP TO OUR WEST ON
MONDAY...AND SHOULD CLOUDS OVERSPREAD WRN ZONES AT LEAST DURING
THE AFTERNOON...BUT THINKING ANY RAIN/SHOWERS WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL
MON NIGHT. THE SW FLOW SHOULD WARM TEMPS INLAND WELL INTO THE
MID-UPPER 70S...BUT WILL COOL THE COAST DOWN...ESPECIALLY THE MID
COAST.

DECENT MID-LVL WAA MOVES THROUGH MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING...AND
SHOULD PRODUCE A PERIOD OF RAIN OR SOME CONVECTIVE SHOWERS DURING
THIS TIMEFRAME. TDS RISE QUICKLY BEHIND THIS WARM FRONT SHOOTING
UP INTO THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S. WED-FRI WILL BE WARM AND
HUMID...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY RUNNING 80-85 INLAND...AND IN THE 70S
ON THE COAST. SOME WAVES WILL INEVITABLY MOVE OVER THE TOP OF THE
RIDGE...SO THERE WILL BE THE THREAT OF SHRA/TSRA...BUT TIMING
THIS FAR OUT IS A GUESS AT BEST.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THRU SAT. COLD FRONT CROSSING
THE FORECAST AREA WILL KICK OFF SCATTERED SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS INTERIOR WRN ME. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS MAY CONTAIN SOME
THUNDER...THOUGH THE PROBABILITY IS LOW. AT ALL TERMINALS NW WIND
GUSTS TO 25 KTS ARE POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT. GUSTY WINDS
CONTINUE AGAIN SAT.

LONG TERM...VFR EXPECTED SAT NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED MON NIGHT INTO AT LEAST TUE MORNING IS
SHRA AND LOW CLOUDS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS TODAY...WITH STRONG
CAA TO FOLLOW BEHIND IT. WINDS WILL GUST ABOVE 25 KTS LATE TONIGHT
INTO SAT MORNING. SEAS WILL BUILD TO NEAR 5 FT ON THE OUTER WATERS
BEFORE SLOWLY DIMINISHING SAT.

LONG TERM...WEST WINDS SUNDAY SHIFT TO SW ON MONDAY...AND WILL
GUST TO AROUND 20 KT BOTH DAYS BUT ARE EXPECTED TO BE SUB-SCA
LVLS. IN GENERAL WINDS WILL REMAIN BLO SCA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. SOME SEAS WELL OFFSHORE COULD REACH 5 FT LATE MON AND
TUE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY AIR MASS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TODAY. COOLER TEMPERATURES
WILL KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES GENERALLY AROUND 25 PERCENT.
LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITIES MAY BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST...WHERE
TEMPERATURES MAY CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 70S. AS COLD FRONT CROSSES
THE AREA WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY FROM THE WEST NORTHWEST. AIR
MASS WILL BECOME WINDIER AND DRIER ON SATURDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FREEZE WATCH FROM 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY
     MORNING FOR MEZ007>009-012-013.
NH...FREEZE WATCH FROM 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY
     MORNING FOR NHZ001>009-011.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$
ES




000
FXUS61 KCAR 221330
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
930 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TODAY. CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN UNSETTLED INTO SATURDAY AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION FROM CANADA. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY WITH
MORE SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
925 AM UPDATE: MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HRLY
TEMPS...OTHERWISE PREVIOUS FORECAST ON TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN FOCUS THIS TERM WILL BE SHOWERS,CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL AND
HAIL.

06Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD LOW PRES MOVING ACROSS NW MAINE W/THE
COLD FRONT STILL BACK ACROSS THE QUEBEC REGION. BATCH OF SHOWERS
HAVE PULLED NE INTO NEW BRUNSWICK. IR SATL IMAGERY SHOWED CLOUDS
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION W/SOME BREAKS ACROSS NW MAINE AND MORE
BREAKS BACK ACROSS WESTERN QUEBEC. PATCHY FOG SETTING UP ACROSS
EASTERN WASHINGTON COUNTY THIS MORNING W/A LOW CLOUD DECK. THIS
AREA OF CLOUDS WAS DUE TO THE SSE FLOW FROM THE GULF OF MAINE.
AS LOW PRES PASSES N OF THE BORDER THIS MORNING, THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. MORE SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED W/THE HEAVIEST ACTIVITY ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN
MAINE. STAYED W/THE DAYCREW`S THINKING OF 60-70% POPS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA AND CHANCE ELSEWHERE. MODEL SOUNDINGS
INCLUDING THE NAM AND GFS POINT TO SOME INSTABILITY LATER THIS
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON W/THE NAM BEING THE MOST ROBUST W/ITS
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS. THE INTERESTING FEATURES OF NOTE ARE THE
850-500MB LAPSE RATES OF 6.5 C/KM AND MUCAPES 400+ JOULES. MID/UPPER
LEVELS ARE QUITE COLD PER THE 00Z UA AND ANY HEATING IN THE LLVLS
COULD GET DESTABILIZATION GOING. FREEZING LEVELS ARE FORECAST TO
BE AROUND 5500 FT W/SOME MODEST 0-6KM SHEAR(20KTS). THE LATEST RUN
OF THE WRF AND HRRR3KM SUPPORT SOME CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL.
THEREFORE, DECIDED TO ADD ISOLD TSTMS W/THE POTENTIAL FOR SMALL
HAIL THROUGH 5 PM. AFTERNOON TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE WELL BELOW
NORMAL AND LUCKY TO TOP 60 DEGREES ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SE OF THE REGION BY THIS EVENING W/COLDER
AIR ARRIVING IN EARNEST THROUGH THE ENTIRE COLUMN. THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW WILL DIVE SE FROM NW QUEBEC TONIGHT W/MORE PRECIP ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ZONES. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO PLUNGE INTO THE 30S
ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA. THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE THAT
THE PRECIP COULD BE A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS OR EVEN JUST SNOW
SHOWERS ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAR NW MAINE BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED AS GROUND TEMPERATURES ARE WARM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW WILL EXIT THROUGH THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON SATURDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST. EXPECT PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY DOWN EAST.
EXPECT GUSTY WEST WINDS ON SATURDAY AS STEEP LAPSE RATES PROMOTE A
DEEP MIXED LAYER. WEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS OVER 40
MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE A
WIND ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOW 50S NORTH AND THE MID TO UPPER 50S CENTRAL AND
DOWNEAST...WHICH IS ABOUT 10 DEGREES NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR.

SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SATURDAY NIGHT AS A SHORT WAVE
FROM THE NORTHWEST APPROACHES. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE LATER
SATURDAY NIGHT MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 40S.

A WEAK RIDGE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE EXITING SHORT WAVE ON
SUNDAY WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 60S NORTH
AND UPPER 60S DOWN EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. A WARM FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. AN
INCREASINGLY WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS IS EXPECTED BY MID WEEK. ALONG
WITH THE WARM AND HUMID WEATHER WILL COME THE RISK OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT FROM THE
NORTHWEST. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD FINALLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
BY LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR THIS MORNING FOR ALL TERMINALS W/CONDITIONS
DROPPING TO MVFR LATER THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. NORTHERN
TERMINALS COULD HAVE A BRIEF TSTM W/SMALL HAIL. THERE WILL BE SOME
TURBULENCE INTO EARLY. WINDS BECOME NW BY THE AFTERNOON AND
INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 KTS. CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO IMPROVE TO
VFR BY THE EVENING FOR ALL TERMINALS.

SHORT TERM: VFR AND GUSTY WEST WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY.
VFR SATURDAY NIGHT EXCEPT MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCT SHOWERS MAINLY
NORTH. VFR SUNDAY/MONDAY. VFR TUESDAY WITH SCT AFTN SHOWER/TSTM
POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HEADLINES FORESEEN ATTM. DECIDED TO BRING WIND GUSTS
UP SOME OVER THE OUTER ZONES TONIGHT AS NW FLOW AND CAA TAKE HOLD.
THEREFORE, GUSTS COULD HIT 25 KTS ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY OVER THE
OUTER WATERS. WAVES WILL BUILD SOME, BUT THE HIGHEST WAVES WILL
BE WELL SE OF THE REGION W/A SWELL GENERATION DEVELOPING FROM THE
LOW PASSING SE OF THE WATERS. THIS IS PICKED UP WELL BY THE SWAN
GUIDANCE. STAYED W/SEAS BUILDING TO 3-5 FT TONIGHT, MAINLY ACROSS
THE OUTER ZONES.

SHORT TERM: SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND AGAIN SUNDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...NORTON
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...NORTON/DUDA
MARINE...NORTON/DUDA



000
FXUS61 KCAR 221330
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
930 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TODAY. CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN UNSETTLED INTO SATURDAY AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION FROM CANADA. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY WITH
MORE SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
925 AM UPDATE: MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HRLY
TEMPS...OTHERWISE PREVIOUS FORECAST ON TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN FOCUS THIS TERM WILL BE SHOWERS,CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL AND
HAIL.

06Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD LOW PRES MOVING ACROSS NW MAINE W/THE
COLD FRONT STILL BACK ACROSS THE QUEBEC REGION. BATCH OF SHOWERS
HAVE PULLED NE INTO NEW BRUNSWICK. IR SATL IMAGERY SHOWED CLOUDS
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION W/SOME BREAKS ACROSS NW MAINE AND MORE
BREAKS BACK ACROSS WESTERN QUEBEC. PATCHY FOG SETTING UP ACROSS
EASTERN WASHINGTON COUNTY THIS MORNING W/A LOW CLOUD DECK. THIS
AREA OF CLOUDS WAS DUE TO THE SSE FLOW FROM THE GULF OF MAINE.
AS LOW PRES PASSES N OF THE BORDER THIS MORNING, THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. MORE SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED W/THE HEAVIEST ACTIVITY ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN
MAINE. STAYED W/THE DAYCREW`S THINKING OF 60-70% POPS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA AND CHANCE ELSEWHERE. MODEL SOUNDINGS
INCLUDING THE NAM AND GFS POINT TO SOME INSTABILITY LATER THIS
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON W/THE NAM BEING THE MOST ROBUST W/ITS
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS. THE INTERESTING FEATURES OF NOTE ARE THE
850-500MB LAPSE RATES OF 6.5 C/KM AND MUCAPES 400+ JOULES. MID/UPPER
LEVELS ARE QUITE COLD PER THE 00Z UA AND ANY HEATING IN THE LLVLS
COULD GET DESTABILIZATION GOING. FREEZING LEVELS ARE FORECAST TO
BE AROUND 5500 FT W/SOME MODEST 0-6KM SHEAR(20KTS). THE LATEST RUN
OF THE WRF AND HRRR3KM SUPPORT SOME CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL.
THEREFORE, DECIDED TO ADD ISOLD TSTMS W/THE POTENTIAL FOR SMALL
HAIL THROUGH 5 PM. AFTERNOON TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE WELL BELOW
NORMAL AND LUCKY TO TOP 60 DEGREES ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SE OF THE REGION BY THIS EVENING W/COLDER
AIR ARRIVING IN EARNEST THROUGH THE ENTIRE COLUMN. THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW WILL DIVE SE FROM NW QUEBEC TONIGHT W/MORE PRECIP ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ZONES. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO PLUNGE INTO THE 30S
ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA. THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE THAT
THE PRECIP COULD BE A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS OR EVEN JUST SNOW
SHOWERS ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAR NW MAINE BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED AS GROUND TEMPERATURES ARE WARM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW WILL EXIT THROUGH THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON SATURDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST. EXPECT PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY DOWN EAST.
EXPECT GUSTY WEST WINDS ON SATURDAY AS STEEP LAPSE RATES PROMOTE A
DEEP MIXED LAYER. WEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS OVER 40
MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE A
WIND ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOW 50S NORTH AND THE MID TO UPPER 50S CENTRAL AND
DOWNEAST...WHICH IS ABOUT 10 DEGREES NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR.

SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SATURDAY NIGHT AS A SHORT WAVE
FROM THE NORTHWEST APPROACHES. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE LATER
SATURDAY NIGHT MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 40S.

A WEAK RIDGE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE EXITING SHORT WAVE ON
SUNDAY WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 60S NORTH
AND UPPER 60S DOWN EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. A WARM FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. AN
INCREASINGLY WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS IS EXPECTED BY MID WEEK. ALONG
WITH THE WARM AND HUMID WEATHER WILL COME THE RISK OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT FROM THE
NORTHWEST. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD FINALLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
BY LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR THIS MORNING FOR ALL TERMINALS W/CONDITIONS
DROPPING TO MVFR LATER THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. NORTHERN
TERMINALS COULD HAVE A BRIEF TSTM W/SMALL HAIL. THERE WILL BE SOME
TURBULENCE INTO EARLY. WINDS BECOME NW BY THE AFTERNOON AND
INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 KTS. CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO IMPROVE TO
VFR BY THE EVENING FOR ALL TERMINALS.

SHORT TERM: VFR AND GUSTY WEST WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY.
VFR SATURDAY NIGHT EXCEPT MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCT SHOWERS MAINLY
NORTH. VFR SUNDAY/MONDAY. VFR TUESDAY WITH SCT AFTN SHOWER/TSTM
POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HEADLINES FORESEEN ATTM. DECIDED TO BRING WIND GUSTS
UP SOME OVER THE OUTER ZONES TONIGHT AS NW FLOW AND CAA TAKE HOLD.
THEREFORE, GUSTS COULD HIT 25 KTS ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY OVER THE
OUTER WATERS. WAVES WILL BUILD SOME, BUT THE HIGHEST WAVES WILL
BE WELL SE OF THE REGION W/A SWELL GENERATION DEVELOPING FROM THE
LOW PASSING SE OF THE WATERS. THIS IS PICKED UP WELL BY THE SWAN
GUIDANCE. STAYED W/SEAS BUILDING TO 3-5 FT TONIGHT, MAINLY ACROSS
THE OUTER ZONES.

SHORT TERM: SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND AGAIN SUNDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...NORTON
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...NORTON/DUDA
MARINE...NORTON/DUDA




000
FXUS61 KCAR 221047
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
647 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TODAY. CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN UNSETTLED INTO SATURDAY AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION FROM CANADA. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY WITH
MORE SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
645 AM UPDATE: ADJUSTMENTS WERE NEEDED TO THE POP AND WX ELEMENTS
BASED ON THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS. SHOWERS WERE FILLING IN AS THE
WEAK LOW WAS MOVING ACROSS NW MAINE. ADJUSTED THE POPS FOR TIMING
TO SPEED THINGS UP A FEW HRS AND ADD SOME PATCHY FOG FOR EASTERN
WASHINGTON COUNTY. SOME PATCHY FOG WAS REPORTED AT EASTPORT BUT
WAS BEGINNING TO LIFT. TEMPERATURES WERE TWEAKED TO LINE UP BETTER
AS THE LATEST OBS WERE SHOWING READINGS BASICALLY AVERAGING IN THE
40S..

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN FOCUS THIS TERM WILL BE SHOWERS,CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL AND
HAIL.

06Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD LOW PRES MOVING ACROSS NW MAINE W/THE
COLD FRONT STILL BACK ACROSS THE QUEBEC REGION. BATCH OF SHOWERS
HAVE PULLED NE INTO NEW BRUNSWICK. IR SATL IMAGERY SHOWED CLOUDS
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION W/SOME BREAKS ACROSS NW MAINE AND MORE
BREAKS BACK ACROSS WESTERN QUEBEC. PATCHY FOG SETTING UP ACROSS
EASTERN WASHINGTON COUNTY THIS MORNING W/A LOW CLOUD DECK. THIS
AREA OF CLOUDS WAS DUE TO THE SSE FLOW FROM THE GULF OF MAINE.
AS LOW PRES PASSES N OF THE BORDER THIS MORNING, THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. MORE SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED W/THE HEAVIEST ACTIVITY ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN
MAINE. STAYED W/THE DAYCREW`S THINKING OF 60-70% POPS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA AND CHANCE ELSEWHERE. MODEL SOUNDINGS
INCLUDING THE NAM AND GFS POINT TO SOME INSTABILITY LATER THIS
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON W/THE NAM BEING THE MOST ROBUST W/ITS
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS. THE INTERESTING FEATURES OF NOTE ARE THE
850-500MB LAPSE RATES OF 6.5 C/KM AND MUCAPES 400+ JOULES. MID/UPPER
LEVELS ARE QUITE COLD PER THE 00Z UA AND ANY HEATING IN THE LLVLS
COULD GET DESTABILIZATION GOING. FREEZING LEVELS ARE FORECAST TO
BE AROUND 5500 FT W/SOME MODEST 0-6KM SHEAR(20KTS). THE LATEST RUN
OF THE WRF AND HRRR3KM SUPPORT SOME CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL.
THEREFORE, DECIDED TO ADD ISOLD TSTMS W/THE POTENTIAL FOR SMALL
HAIL THROUGH 5 PM. AFTERNOON TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE WELL BELOW
NORMAL AND LUCKY TO TOP 60 DEGREES ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SE OF THE REGION BY THIS EVENING W/COLDER
AIR ARRIVING IN EARNEST THROUGH THE ENTIRE COLUMN. THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW WILL DIVE SE FROM NW QUEBEC TONIGHT W/MORE PRECIP ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ZONES. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO PLUNGE INTO THE 30S
ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA. THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE THAT
THE PRECIP COULD BE A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS OR EVEN JUST SNOW
SHOWERS ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAR NW MAINE BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED AS GROUND TEMPERATURES ARE WARM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW WILL EXIT THROUGH THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON SATURDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST. EXPECT PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY DOWN EAST.
EXPECT GUSTY WEST WINDS ON SATURDAY AS STEEP LAPSE RATES PROMOTE A
DEEP MIXED LAYER. WEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS OVER 40
MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE A
WIND ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOW 50S NORTH AND THE MID TO UPPER 50S CENTRAL AND
DOWNEAST...WHICH IS ABOUT 10 DEGREES NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR.

SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SATURDAY NIGHT AS A SHORT WAVE
FROM THE NORTHWEST APPROACHES. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE LATER
SATURDAY NIGHT MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 40S.

A WEAK RIDGE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE EXITING SHORT WAVE ON
SUNDAY WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 60S NORTH
AND UPPER 60S DOWN EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. A WARM FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. AN
INCREASINGLY WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS IS EXPECTED BY MID WEEK. ALONG
WITH THE WARM AND HUMID WEATHER WILL COME THE RISK OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT FROM THE
NORTHWEST. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD FINALLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
BY LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR THIS MORNING FOR ALL TERMINALS W/CONDITIONS
DROPPING TO MVFR LATER THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. NORTHERN
TERMINALS COULD HAVE A BRIEF TSTM W/SMALL HAIL. THERE WILL BE SOME
TURBULENCE INTO EARLY. WINDS BECOME NW BY THE AFTERNOON AND
INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 KTS. CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO IMPROVE TO
VFR BY THE EVENING FOR ALL TERMINALS.

SHORT TERM: VFR AND GUSTY WEST WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY.
VFR SATURDAY NIGHT EXCEPT MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCT SHOWERS MAINLY
NORTH. VFR SUNDAY/MONDAY. VFR TUESDAY WITH SCT AFTN SHOWER/TSTM
POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HEADLINES FORESEEN ATTM. DECIDED TO BRING WIND GUSTS
UP SOME OVER THE OUTER ZONES TONIGHT AS NW FLOW AND CAA TAKE HOLD.
THEREFORE, GUSTS COULD HIT 25 KTS ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY OVER THE
OUTER WATERS. WAVES WILL BUILD SOME, BUT THE HIGHEST WAVES WILL
BE WELL SE OF THE REGION W/A SWELL GENERATION DEVELOPING FROM THE
LOW PASSING SE OF THE WATERS. THIS IS PICKED UP WELL BY THE SWAN
GUIDANCE. STAYED W/SEAS BUILDING TO 3-5 FT TONIGHT, MAINLY ACROSS
THE OUTER ZONES.

SHORT TERM: SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND AGAIN SUNDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HEWITT
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...HEWITT/DUDA
MARINE...HEWITT/DUDA



000
FXUS61 KCAR 221047
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
647 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TODAY. CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN UNSETTLED INTO SATURDAY AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION FROM CANADA. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY WITH
MORE SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
645 AM UPDATE: ADJUSTMENTS WERE NEEDED TO THE POP AND WX ELEMENTS
BASED ON THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS. SHOWERS WERE FILLING IN AS THE
WEAK LOW WAS MOVING ACROSS NW MAINE. ADJUSTED THE POPS FOR TIMING
TO SPEED THINGS UP A FEW HRS AND ADD SOME PATCHY FOG FOR EASTERN
WASHINGTON COUNTY. SOME PATCHY FOG WAS REPORTED AT EASTPORT BUT
WAS BEGINNING TO LIFT. TEMPERATURES WERE TWEAKED TO LINE UP BETTER
AS THE LATEST OBS WERE SHOWING READINGS BASICALLY AVERAGING IN THE
40S..

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN FOCUS THIS TERM WILL BE SHOWERS,CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL AND
HAIL.

06Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD LOW PRES MOVING ACROSS NW MAINE W/THE
COLD FRONT STILL BACK ACROSS THE QUEBEC REGION. BATCH OF SHOWERS
HAVE PULLED NE INTO NEW BRUNSWICK. IR SATL IMAGERY SHOWED CLOUDS
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION W/SOME BREAKS ACROSS NW MAINE AND MORE
BREAKS BACK ACROSS WESTERN QUEBEC. PATCHY FOG SETTING UP ACROSS
EASTERN WASHINGTON COUNTY THIS MORNING W/A LOW CLOUD DECK. THIS
AREA OF CLOUDS WAS DUE TO THE SSE FLOW FROM THE GULF OF MAINE.
AS LOW PRES PASSES N OF THE BORDER THIS MORNING, THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. MORE SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED W/THE HEAVIEST ACTIVITY ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN
MAINE. STAYED W/THE DAYCREW`S THINKING OF 60-70% POPS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA AND CHANCE ELSEWHERE. MODEL SOUNDINGS
INCLUDING THE NAM AND GFS POINT TO SOME INSTABILITY LATER THIS
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON W/THE NAM BEING THE MOST ROBUST W/ITS
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS. THE INTERESTING FEATURES OF NOTE ARE THE
850-500MB LAPSE RATES OF 6.5 C/KM AND MUCAPES 400+ JOULES. MID/UPPER
LEVELS ARE QUITE COLD PER THE 00Z UA AND ANY HEATING IN THE LLVLS
COULD GET DESTABILIZATION GOING. FREEZING LEVELS ARE FORECAST TO
BE AROUND 5500 FT W/SOME MODEST 0-6KM SHEAR(20KTS). THE LATEST RUN
OF THE WRF AND HRRR3KM SUPPORT SOME CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL.
THEREFORE, DECIDED TO ADD ISOLD TSTMS W/THE POTENTIAL FOR SMALL
HAIL THROUGH 5 PM. AFTERNOON TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE WELL BELOW
NORMAL AND LUCKY TO TOP 60 DEGREES ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SE OF THE REGION BY THIS EVENING W/COLDER
AIR ARRIVING IN EARNEST THROUGH THE ENTIRE COLUMN. THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW WILL DIVE SE FROM NW QUEBEC TONIGHT W/MORE PRECIP ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ZONES. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO PLUNGE INTO THE 30S
ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA. THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE THAT
THE PRECIP COULD BE A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS OR EVEN JUST SNOW
SHOWERS ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAR NW MAINE BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED AS GROUND TEMPERATURES ARE WARM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW WILL EXIT THROUGH THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON SATURDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST. EXPECT PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY DOWN EAST.
EXPECT GUSTY WEST WINDS ON SATURDAY AS STEEP LAPSE RATES PROMOTE A
DEEP MIXED LAYER. WEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS OVER 40
MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE A
WIND ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOW 50S NORTH AND THE MID TO UPPER 50S CENTRAL AND
DOWNEAST...WHICH IS ABOUT 10 DEGREES NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR.

SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SATURDAY NIGHT AS A SHORT WAVE
FROM THE NORTHWEST APPROACHES. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE LATER
SATURDAY NIGHT MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 40S.

A WEAK RIDGE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE EXITING SHORT WAVE ON
SUNDAY WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 60S NORTH
AND UPPER 60S DOWN EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. A WARM FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. AN
INCREASINGLY WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS IS EXPECTED BY MID WEEK. ALONG
WITH THE WARM AND HUMID WEATHER WILL COME THE RISK OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT FROM THE
NORTHWEST. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD FINALLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
BY LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR THIS MORNING FOR ALL TERMINALS W/CONDITIONS
DROPPING TO MVFR LATER THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. NORTHERN
TERMINALS COULD HAVE A BRIEF TSTM W/SMALL HAIL. THERE WILL BE SOME
TURBULENCE INTO EARLY. WINDS BECOME NW BY THE AFTERNOON AND
INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 KTS. CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO IMPROVE TO
VFR BY THE EVENING FOR ALL TERMINALS.

SHORT TERM: VFR AND GUSTY WEST WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY.
VFR SATURDAY NIGHT EXCEPT MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCT SHOWERS MAINLY
NORTH. VFR SUNDAY/MONDAY. VFR TUESDAY WITH SCT AFTN SHOWER/TSTM
POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HEADLINES FORESEEN ATTM. DECIDED TO BRING WIND GUSTS
UP SOME OVER THE OUTER ZONES TONIGHT AS NW FLOW AND CAA TAKE HOLD.
THEREFORE, GUSTS COULD HIT 25 KTS ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY OVER THE
OUTER WATERS. WAVES WILL BUILD SOME, BUT THE HIGHEST WAVES WILL
BE WELL SE OF THE REGION W/A SWELL GENERATION DEVELOPING FROM THE
LOW PASSING SE OF THE WATERS. THIS IS PICKED UP WELL BY THE SWAN
GUIDANCE. STAYED W/SEAS BUILDING TO 3-5 FT TONIGHT, MAINLY ACROSS
THE OUTER ZONES.

SHORT TERM: SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND AGAIN SUNDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HEWITT
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...HEWITT/DUDA
MARINE...HEWITT/DUDA




000
FXUS61 KGYX 220933 AAA
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
533 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS NEW ENGLAND TODAY...SETTING OFF A FEW
SHOWERS ANS THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY...AND
CROSS THE AREAS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY....PROVIDING ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. WARM AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...A FEW MINOR CHANGES TO REFLECT CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL
TRENDS. DID INCLUDE SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POP S OF THE MTNS THIS
MORNING...AS A BAND OF VERY LIGHT SHOWERS DRIFTS THRU THE AREA ON
THE NW SIDE OF WEAK COASTAL LOW PRES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A SEASONABLY STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...USHERING IN SOME VERY CHILLY AIR. PRIOR
TO ITS ARRIVAL AREAS E OF THE MTNS SHOULD WARM SUFFICIENTLY TO
PROVIDE A LITTLE BIT OF FUEL FOR SHOWERS TO POP UP ALONG THE
FRONT.

MESOSCALE GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THAT A BAND OR
CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP QUICKLY ALONG THE MTNS AND RACE
EWD TOWARDS THE COAST...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WRN ME. FARTHER S AND
W...THE AIR MASS WILL BE QUITE DRY AND SOUNDINGS SUGGEST IT WILL
BE DIFFICULT TO SATURATE ENOUGH FOR PCPN. DEEPER MOIST LAYERS WILL
RESIDE ACROSS WRN ME...AND WILL SUPPORT LIKELY POP FOR PARTS OF
THE MIDCOAST. LOW FREEZING LEVELS WILL ALSO SUPPORT PLENTY OF ICE
IN THE CLOUDS...AND CANNOT RULE OUT SOME THUNDER OR SMALL
HAIL/GRAUPEL. STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL RESIDE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER
THANKS TO THE DRY AIR MASS...SO SOME OF THESE SHOWERS/TSTMS MAY BE
GUSTY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING H8 TEMPS BETWEEN -4 AND -8 C
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS IS NEARLY A 3 SIGMA DEPARTURE FROM
NORMAL...AND MODEL GUIDANCE HAS EVEN COOLED A LITTLE FROM LAST
NIGHT. SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY SUGGESTS THIS COLD SHOT WILL FALL WELL
WITHIN THE LOWEST 10 PERCENT OF OBSERVATIONS FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. THIS ALL ADDS UP TO A LOW TEMP FORECAST AT LEAST AS COLD AS
WED NIGHT...AND PROBABLY A FEW DEGREES COOLER.

THAT BEING SAID...MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL REMAIN AT LEAST PARTIALLY MIXED AS CAA CONTINUES
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. MAV/MET GUIDANCE CAN OFTEN BE TOO AGGRESSIVE
IN DECOUPLING THE BOUNDARY LAYER...THUS FORECASTING MIN TEMPS TOO
COLD ESPECIALLY DOWNWIND OF THE MTNS. THE LATEST MAV FOR INSTANCE
BRINGS KHIE AND KBML DOWN TO THE UPPER TEENS. TO OFFSET THIS BIAS
I HAVE BLENDED IN SOME 2 M TEMPS FROM REGIONAL SCALE MODEL
GUIDANCE TO PROVIDE AN ELEMENT CAA MIXED LAYER. OVERALL THIS
LOWERED THE PREVIOUS FORECAST A DEGREE OR TWO. THE GRADIENT FLOW
MAY BE ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE FROST FOR MOST AREAS...BUT TEMPS
REGARDLESS LOOK TO FALL BELOW FREEZING FOR A LARGE PORTION OF THE
NRN FORECAST AREA. I EXPANDED THE FREEZE WATCH TO AREAS ON THE
BORDERLINE OF 32 DEGREES TO HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR A COLDER
FORECAST SOLUTION. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE IF RIDGING CAN MOVE IN
FASTER...ALLOWING THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO DECOUPLE. THIS WOULD MOST
LIKELY HAPPEN OVER WRN ZONES...SO THE MOST UNCERTAINTY IN THE
FORECAST LIES IN THOSE AREAS.

IT WILL BE A COOL AND BREEZY DAY SAT IN THE POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS.
WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON DEW POINT FORECASTS DURING THE DAY.
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN THE LOW TO MID 20S...WHILE BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
SHOW THE DEPTH OF MIXED LAYER HINTING AT REALITY BEING CLOSER TO
THE LOW TO MID TEENS. THIS WOULD BRING RH VALUES WELL BELOW 25
PERCENT...AND COUPLED WITH WINDS AND RECENT DRYNESS COULD CAUSE
SOME FIRE DANGER ISSUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
500MB PATTERN TRANSITIONS TO BLOCKY SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN NEXT WEEK
AS RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE ERN CONUS AND WRN ATLANTIC AND 500MB
JET RETREATS WELL POLEWARD. THIS WILL LEAD TO WARM AND MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS MOVING IN...WITH POTENTIAL FOR SCT TSRA AT TIMES AS WE
ARE ON THE SRN PERIPHERY OF IMPULSES MOVING BY IN THE STRONGER
500 MB TO OUR N.

SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE A SEASONABLY FAIR DAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
70S AND A DECENT WEST WIND WILL KEEP THE COOLER MARINE AIR MAINLY
OFFSHORE...EXCEPT MAYBE AT THE BEACHES. SUNDAY NIGHT LOOKS CLEAR
AND MORE MILD THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS WITH LOWS IN THE MID 40S N...TO
MID 50S S. DECENT WAA BEGINS TO DEVELOP TO OUR WEST ON
MONDAY...AND SHOULD CLOUDS OVERSPREAD WRN ZONES AT LEAST DURING
THE AFTERNOON...BUT THINKING ANY RAIN/SHOWERS WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL
MON NIGHT. THE SW FLOW SHOULD WARM TEMPS INLAND WELL INTO THE
MID-UPPER 70S...BUT WILL COOL THE COAST DOWN...ESPECIALLY THE MID
COAST.

DECENT MID-LVL WAA MOVES THROUGH MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING...AND
SHOULD PRODUCE A PERIOD OF RAIN OR SOME CONVECTIVE SHOWERS DURING
THIS TIMEFRAME. TDS RISE QUICKLY BEHIND THIS WARM FRONT SHOOTING
UP INTO THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S. WED-FRI WILL BE WARM AND
HUMID...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY RUNNING 80-85 INLAND...AND IN THE 70S
ON THE COAST. SOME WAVES WILL INEVITABLY MOVE OVER THE TOP OF THE
RIDGE...SO THERE WILL BE THE THREAT OF SHRA/TSRA...BUT TIMING
THIS FAR OUT IS A GUESS AT BEST.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THRU SAT. COLD FRONT CROSSING
THE FORECAST AREA WILL KICK OFF SCATTERED SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS INTERIOR WRN ME. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS MAY CONTAIN SOME
THUNDER...THOUGH THE PROBABILITY IS LOW. AT ALL TERMINALS NW WIND
GUSTS TO 25 KTS ARE POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT. GUSTY WINDS
CONTINUE AGAIN SAT.

LONG TERM...VFR EXPECTED SAT NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED MON NIGHT INTO AT LEAST TUE MORNING IS
SHRA AND LOW CLOUDS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS TODAY...WITH STRONG
CAA TO FOLLOW BEHIND IT. WINDS WILL GUST ABOVE 25 KTS LATE TONIGHT
INTO SAT MORNING. SEAS WILL BUILD TO NEAR 5 FT ON THE OUTER WATERS
BEFORE SLOWLY DIMINISHING SAT.

LONG TERM...WEST WINDS SUNDAY SHIFT TO SW ON MONDAY...AND WILL
GUST TO AROUND 20 KT BOTH DAYS BUT ARE EXPECTED TO BE SUB-SCA
LVLS. IN GENERAL WINDS WILL REMAIN BLO SCA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. SOME SEAS WELL OFFSHORE COULD REACH 5 FT LATE MON AND
TUE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY AIR MASS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TODAY. COOLER TEMPERATURES
WILL KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES GENERALLY AROUND 25 PERCENT.
LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITIES MAY BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST...WHERE
TEMPERATURES MAY CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 70S. AS COLD FRONT CROSSES
THE AREA WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY FROM THE WEST NORTHWEST. AIR
MASS WILL BECOME WINDIER AND DRIER ON SATURDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FREEZE WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     MEZ007>009-012-013.
NH...FREEZE WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     NHZ001>009-011.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LEGRO
SHORT TERM...LEGRO
LONG TERM...CEMPA
AVIATION...CEMPA/LEGRO
MARINE...CEMPA/LEGRO
FIRE WEATHER...LEGRO




000
FXUS61 KGYX 220933 AAA
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
533 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS NEW ENGLAND TODAY...SETTING OFF A FEW
SHOWERS ANS THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY...AND
CROSS THE AREAS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY....PROVIDING ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. WARM AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...A FEW MINOR CHANGES TO REFLECT CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL
TRENDS. DID INCLUDE SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POP S OF THE MTNS THIS
MORNING...AS A BAND OF VERY LIGHT SHOWERS DRIFTS THRU THE AREA ON
THE NW SIDE OF WEAK COASTAL LOW PRES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A SEASONABLY STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...USHERING IN SOME VERY CHILLY AIR. PRIOR
TO ITS ARRIVAL AREAS E OF THE MTNS SHOULD WARM SUFFICIENTLY TO
PROVIDE A LITTLE BIT OF FUEL FOR SHOWERS TO POP UP ALONG THE
FRONT.

MESOSCALE GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THAT A BAND OR
CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP QUICKLY ALONG THE MTNS AND RACE
EWD TOWARDS THE COAST...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WRN ME. FARTHER S AND
W...THE AIR MASS WILL BE QUITE DRY AND SOUNDINGS SUGGEST IT WILL
BE DIFFICULT TO SATURATE ENOUGH FOR PCPN. DEEPER MOIST LAYERS WILL
RESIDE ACROSS WRN ME...AND WILL SUPPORT LIKELY POP FOR PARTS OF
THE MIDCOAST. LOW FREEZING LEVELS WILL ALSO SUPPORT PLENTY OF ICE
IN THE CLOUDS...AND CANNOT RULE OUT SOME THUNDER OR SMALL
HAIL/GRAUPEL. STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL RESIDE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER
THANKS TO THE DRY AIR MASS...SO SOME OF THESE SHOWERS/TSTMS MAY BE
GUSTY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING H8 TEMPS BETWEEN -4 AND -8 C
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS IS NEARLY A 3 SIGMA DEPARTURE FROM
NORMAL...AND MODEL GUIDANCE HAS EVEN COOLED A LITTLE FROM LAST
NIGHT. SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY SUGGESTS THIS COLD SHOT WILL FALL WELL
WITHIN THE LOWEST 10 PERCENT OF OBSERVATIONS FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. THIS ALL ADDS UP TO A LOW TEMP FORECAST AT LEAST AS COLD AS
WED NIGHT...AND PROBABLY A FEW DEGREES COOLER.

THAT BEING SAID...MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL REMAIN AT LEAST PARTIALLY MIXED AS CAA CONTINUES
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. MAV/MET GUIDANCE CAN OFTEN BE TOO AGGRESSIVE
IN DECOUPLING THE BOUNDARY LAYER...THUS FORECASTING MIN TEMPS TOO
COLD ESPECIALLY DOWNWIND OF THE MTNS. THE LATEST MAV FOR INSTANCE
BRINGS KHIE AND KBML DOWN TO THE UPPER TEENS. TO OFFSET THIS BIAS
I HAVE BLENDED IN SOME 2 M TEMPS FROM REGIONAL SCALE MODEL
GUIDANCE TO PROVIDE AN ELEMENT CAA MIXED LAYER. OVERALL THIS
LOWERED THE PREVIOUS FORECAST A DEGREE OR TWO. THE GRADIENT FLOW
MAY BE ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE FROST FOR MOST AREAS...BUT TEMPS
REGARDLESS LOOK TO FALL BELOW FREEZING FOR A LARGE PORTION OF THE
NRN FORECAST AREA. I EXPANDED THE FREEZE WATCH TO AREAS ON THE
BORDERLINE OF 32 DEGREES TO HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR A COLDER
FORECAST SOLUTION. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE IF RIDGING CAN MOVE IN
FASTER...ALLOWING THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO DECOUPLE. THIS WOULD MOST
LIKELY HAPPEN OVER WRN ZONES...SO THE MOST UNCERTAINTY IN THE
FORECAST LIES IN THOSE AREAS.

IT WILL BE A COOL AND BREEZY DAY SAT IN THE POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS.
WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON DEW POINT FORECASTS DURING THE DAY.
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN THE LOW TO MID 20S...WHILE BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
SHOW THE DEPTH OF MIXED LAYER HINTING AT REALITY BEING CLOSER TO
THE LOW TO MID TEENS. THIS WOULD BRING RH VALUES WELL BELOW 25
PERCENT...AND COUPLED WITH WINDS AND RECENT DRYNESS COULD CAUSE
SOME FIRE DANGER ISSUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
500MB PATTERN TRANSITIONS TO BLOCKY SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN NEXT WEEK
AS RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE ERN CONUS AND WRN ATLANTIC AND 500MB
JET RETREATS WELL POLEWARD. THIS WILL LEAD TO WARM AND MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS MOVING IN...WITH POTENTIAL FOR SCT TSRA AT TIMES AS WE
ARE ON THE SRN PERIPHERY OF IMPULSES MOVING BY IN THE STRONGER
500 MB TO OUR N.

SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE A SEASONABLY FAIR DAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
70S AND A DECENT WEST WIND WILL KEEP THE COOLER MARINE AIR MAINLY
OFFSHORE...EXCEPT MAYBE AT THE BEACHES. SUNDAY NIGHT LOOKS CLEAR
AND MORE MILD THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS WITH LOWS IN THE MID 40S N...TO
MID 50S S. DECENT WAA BEGINS TO DEVELOP TO OUR WEST ON
MONDAY...AND SHOULD CLOUDS OVERSPREAD WRN ZONES AT LEAST DURING
THE AFTERNOON...BUT THINKING ANY RAIN/SHOWERS WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL
MON NIGHT. THE SW FLOW SHOULD WARM TEMPS INLAND WELL INTO THE
MID-UPPER 70S...BUT WILL COOL THE COAST DOWN...ESPECIALLY THE MID
COAST.

DECENT MID-LVL WAA MOVES THROUGH MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING...AND
SHOULD PRODUCE A PERIOD OF RAIN OR SOME CONVECTIVE SHOWERS DURING
THIS TIMEFRAME. TDS RISE QUICKLY BEHIND THIS WARM FRONT SHOOTING
UP INTO THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S. WED-FRI WILL BE WARM AND
HUMID...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY RUNNING 80-85 INLAND...AND IN THE 70S
ON THE COAST. SOME WAVES WILL INEVITABLY MOVE OVER THE TOP OF THE
RIDGE...SO THERE WILL BE THE THREAT OF SHRA/TSRA...BUT TIMING
THIS FAR OUT IS A GUESS AT BEST.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THRU SAT. COLD FRONT CROSSING
THE FORECAST AREA WILL KICK OFF SCATTERED SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS INTERIOR WRN ME. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS MAY CONTAIN SOME
THUNDER...THOUGH THE PROBABILITY IS LOW. AT ALL TERMINALS NW WIND
GUSTS TO 25 KTS ARE POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT. GUSTY WINDS
CONTINUE AGAIN SAT.

LONG TERM...VFR EXPECTED SAT NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED MON NIGHT INTO AT LEAST TUE MORNING IS
SHRA AND LOW CLOUDS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS TODAY...WITH STRONG
CAA TO FOLLOW BEHIND IT. WINDS WILL GUST ABOVE 25 KTS LATE TONIGHT
INTO SAT MORNING. SEAS WILL BUILD TO NEAR 5 FT ON THE OUTER WATERS
BEFORE SLOWLY DIMINISHING SAT.

LONG TERM...WEST WINDS SUNDAY SHIFT TO SW ON MONDAY...AND WILL
GUST TO AROUND 20 KT BOTH DAYS BUT ARE EXPECTED TO BE SUB-SCA
LVLS. IN GENERAL WINDS WILL REMAIN BLO SCA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. SOME SEAS WELL OFFSHORE COULD REACH 5 FT LATE MON AND
TUE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY AIR MASS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TODAY. COOLER TEMPERATURES
WILL KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES GENERALLY AROUND 25 PERCENT.
LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITIES MAY BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST...WHERE
TEMPERATURES MAY CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 70S. AS COLD FRONT CROSSES
THE AREA WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY FROM THE WEST NORTHWEST. AIR
MASS WILL BECOME WINDIER AND DRIER ON SATURDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FREEZE WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     MEZ007>009-012-013.
NH...FREEZE WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     NHZ001>009-011.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LEGRO
SHORT TERM...LEGRO
LONG TERM...CEMPA
AVIATION...CEMPA/LEGRO
MARINE...CEMPA/LEGRO
FIRE WEATHER...LEGRO




000
FXUS61 KGYX 220933 AAA
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
533 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS NEW ENGLAND TODAY...SETTING OFF A FEW
SHOWERS ANS THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY...AND
CROSS THE AREAS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY....PROVIDING ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. WARM AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...A FEW MINOR CHANGES TO REFLECT CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL
TRENDS. DID INCLUDE SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POP S OF THE MTNS THIS
MORNING...AS A BAND OF VERY LIGHT SHOWERS DRIFTS THRU THE AREA ON
THE NW SIDE OF WEAK COASTAL LOW PRES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A SEASONABLY STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...USHERING IN SOME VERY CHILLY AIR. PRIOR
TO ITS ARRIVAL AREAS E OF THE MTNS SHOULD WARM SUFFICIENTLY TO
PROVIDE A LITTLE BIT OF FUEL FOR SHOWERS TO POP UP ALONG THE
FRONT.

MESOSCALE GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THAT A BAND OR
CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP QUICKLY ALONG THE MTNS AND RACE
EWD TOWARDS THE COAST...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WRN ME. FARTHER S AND
W...THE AIR MASS WILL BE QUITE DRY AND SOUNDINGS SUGGEST IT WILL
BE DIFFICULT TO SATURATE ENOUGH FOR PCPN. DEEPER MOIST LAYERS WILL
RESIDE ACROSS WRN ME...AND WILL SUPPORT LIKELY POP FOR PARTS OF
THE MIDCOAST. LOW FREEZING LEVELS WILL ALSO SUPPORT PLENTY OF ICE
IN THE CLOUDS...AND CANNOT RULE OUT SOME THUNDER OR SMALL
HAIL/GRAUPEL. STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL RESIDE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER
THANKS TO THE DRY AIR MASS...SO SOME OF THESE SHOWERS/TSTMS MAY BE
GUSTY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING H8 TEMPS BETWEEN -4 AND -8 C
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS IS NEARLY A 3 SIGMA DEPARTURE FROM
NORMAL...AND MODEL GUIDANCE HAS EVEN COOLED A LITTLE FROM LAST
NIGHT. SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY SUGGESTS THIS COLD SHOT WILL FALL WELL
WITHIN THE LOWEST 10 PERCENT OF OBSERVATIONS FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. THIS ALL ADDS UP TO A LOW TEMP FORECAST AT LEAST AS COLD AS
WED NIGHT...AND PROBABLY A FEW DEGREES COOLER.

THAT BEING SAID...MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL REMAIN AT LEAST PARTIALLY MIXED AS CAA CONTINUES
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. MAV/MET GUIDANCE CAN OFTEN BE TOO AGGRESSIVE
IN DECOUPLING THE BOUNDARY LAYER...THUS FORECASTING MIN TEMPS TOO
COLD ESPECIALLY DOWNWIND OF THE MTNS. THE LATEST MAV FOR INSTANCE
BRINGS KHIE AND KBML DOWN TO THE UPPER TEENS. TO OFFSET THIS BIAS
I HAVE BLENDED IN SOME 2 M TEMPS FROM REGIONAL SCALE MODEL
GUIDANCE TO PROVIDE AN ELEMENT CAA MIXED LAYER. OVERALL THIS
LOWERED THE PREVIOUS FORECAST A DEGREE OR TWO. THE GRADIENT FLOW
MAY BE ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE FROST FOR MOST AREAS...BUT TEMPS
REGARDLESS LOOK TO FALL BELOW FREEZING FOR A LARGE PORTION OF THE
NRN FORECAST AREA. I EXPANDED THE FREEZE WATCH TO AREAS ON THE
BORDERLINE OF 32 DEGREES TO HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR A COLDER
FORECAST SOLUTION. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE IF RIDGING CAN MOVE IN
FASTER...ALLOWING THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO DECOUPLE. THIS WOULD MOST
LIKELY HAPPEN OVER WRN ZONES...SO THE MOST UNCERTAINTY IN THE
FORECAST LIES IN THOSE AREAS.

IT WILL BE A COOL AND BREEZY DAY SAT IN THE POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS.
WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON DEW POINT FORECASTS DURING THE DAY.
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN THE LOW TO MID 20S...WHILE BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
SHOW THE DEPTH OF MIXED LAYER HINTING AT REALITY BEING CLOSER TO
THE LOW TO MID TEENS. THIS WOULD BRING RH VALUES WELL BELOW 25
PERCENT...AND COUPLED WITH WINDS AND RECENT DRYNESS COULD CAUSE
SOME FIRE DANGER ISSUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
500MB PATTERN TRANSITIONS TO BLOCKY SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN NEXT WEEK
AS RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE ERN CONUS AND WRN ATLANTIC AND 500MB
JET RETREATS WELL POLEWARD. THIS WILL LEAD TO WARM AND MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS MOVING IN...WITH POTENTIAL FOR SCT TSRA AT TIMES AS WE
ARE ON THE SRN PERIPHERY OF IMPULSES MOVING BY IN THE STRONGER
500 MB TO OUR N.

SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE A SEASONABLY FAIR DAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
70S AND A DECENT WEST WIND WILL KEEP THE COOLER MARINE AIR MAINLY
OFFSHORE...EXCEPT MAYBE AT THE BEACHES. SUNDAY NIGHT LOOKS CLEAR
AND MORE MILD THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS WITH LOWS IN THE MID 40S N...TO
MID 50S S. DECENT WAA BEGINS TO DEVELOP TO OUR WEST ON
MONDAY...AND SHOULD CLOUDS OVERSPREAD WRN ZONES AT LEAST DURING
THE AFTERNOON...BUT THINKING ANY RAIN/SHOWERS WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL
MON NIGHT. THE SW FLOW SHOULD WARM TEMPS INLAND WELL INTO THE
MID-UPPER 70S...BUT WILL COOL THE COAST DOWN...ESPECIALLY THE MID
COAST.

DECENT MID-LVL WAA MOVES THROUGH MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING...AND
SHOULD PRODUCE A PERIOD OF RAIN OR SOME CONVECTIVE SHOWERS DURING
THIS TIMEFRAME. TDS RISE QUICKLY BEHIND THIS WARM FRONT SHOOTING
UP INTO THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S. WED-FRI WILL BE WARM AND
HUMID...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY RUNNING 80-85 INLAND...AND IN THE 70S
ON THE COAST. SOME WAVES WILL INEVITABLY MOVE OVER THE TOP OF THE
RIDGE...SO THERE WILL BE THE THREAT OF SHRA/TSRA...BUT TIMING
THIS FAR OUT IS A GUESS AT BEST.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THRU SAT. COLD FRONT CROSSING
THE FORECAST AREA WILL KICK OFF SCATTERED SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS INTERIOR WRN ME. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS MAY CONTAIN SOME
THUNDER...THOUGH THE PROBABILITY IS LOW. AT ALL TERMINALS NW WIND
GUSTS TO 25 KTS ARE POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT. GUSTY WINDS
CONTINUE AGAIN SAT.

LONG TERM...VFR EXPECTED SAT NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED MON NIGHT INTO AT LEAST TUE MORNING IS
SHRA AND LOW CLOUDS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS TODAY...WITH STRONG
CAA TO FOLLOW BEHIND IT. WINDS WILL GUST ABOVE 25 KTS LATE TONIGHT
INTO SAT MORNING. SEAS WILL BUILD TO NEAR 5 FT ON THE OUTER WATERS
BEFORE SLOWLY DIMINISHING SAT.

LONG TERM...WEST WINDS SUNDAY SHIFT TO SW ON MONDAY...AND WILL
GUST TO AROUND 20 KT BOTH DAYS BUT ARE EXPECTED TO BE SUB-SCA
LVLS. IN GENERAL WINDS WILL REMAIN BLO SCA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. SOME SEAS WELL OFFSHORE COULD REACH 5 FT LATE MON AND
TUE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY AIR MASS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TODAY. COOLER TEMPERATURES
WILL KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES GENERALLY AROUND 25 PERCENT.
LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITIES MAY BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST...WHERE
TEMPERATURES MAY CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 70S. AS COLD FRONT CROSSES
THE AREA WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY FROM THE WEST NORTHWEST. AIR
MASS WILL BECOME WINDIER AND DRIER ON SATURDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FREEZE WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     MEZ007>009-012-013.
NH...FREEZE WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     NHZ001>009-011.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LEGRO
SHORT TERM...LEGRO
LONG TERM...CEMPA
AVIATION...CEMPA/LEGRO
MARINE...CEMPA/LEGRO
FIRE WEATHER...LEGRO




000
FXUS61 KGYX 220933 AAA
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
533 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS NEW ENGLAND TODAY...SETTING OFF A FEW
SHOWERS ANS THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY...AND
CROSS THE AREAS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY....PROVIDING ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. WARM AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...A FEW MINOR CHANGES TO REFLECT CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL
TRENDS. DID INCLUDE SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POP S OF THE MTNS THIS
MORNING...AS A BAND OF VERY LIGHT SHOWERS DRIFTS THRU THE AREA ON
THE NW SIDE OF WEAK COASTAL LOW PRES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A SEASONABLY STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...USHERING IN SOME VERY CHILLY AIR. PRIOR
TO ITS ARRIVAL AREAS E OF THE MTNS SHOULD WARM SUFFICIENTLY TO
PROVIDE A LITTLE BIT OF FUEL FOR SHOWERS TO POP UP ALONG THE
FRONT.

MESOSCALE GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THAT A BAND OR
CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP QUICKLY ALONG THE MTNS AND RACE
EWD TOWARDS THE COAST...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WRN ME. FARTHER S AND
W...THE AIR MASS WILL BE QUITE DRY AND SOUNDINGS SUGGEST IT WILL
BE DIFFICULT TO SATURATE ENOUGH FOR PCPN. DEEPER MOIST LAYERS WILL
RESIDE ACROSS WRN ME...AND WILL SUPPORT LIKELY POP FOR PARTS OF
THE MIDCOAST. LOW FREEZING LEVELS WILL ALSO SUPPORT PLENTY OF ICE
IN THE CLOUDS...AND CANNOT RULE OUT SOME THUNDER OR SMALL
HAIL/GRAUPEL. STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL RESIDE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER
THANKS TO THE DRY AIR MASS...SO SOME OF THESE SHOWERS/TSTMS MAY BE
GUSTY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING H8 TEMPS BETWEEN -4 AND -8 C
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS IS NEARLY A 3 SIGMA DEPARTURE FROM
NORMAL...AND MODEL GUIDANCE HAS EVEN COOLED A LITTLE FROM LAST
NIGHT. SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY SUGGESTS THIS COLD SHOT WILL FALL WELL
WITHIN THE LOWEST 10 PERCENT OF OBSERVATIONS FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. THIS ALL ADDS UP TO A LOW TEMP FORECAST AT LEAST AS COLD AS
WED NIGHT...AND PROBABLY A FEW DEGREES COOLER.

THAT BEING SAID...MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL REMAIN AT LEAST PARTIALLY MIXED AS CAA CONTINUES
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. MAV/MET GUIDANCE CAN OFTEN BE TOO AGGRESSIVE
IN DECOUPLING THE BOUNDARY LAYER...THUS FORECASTING MIN TEMPS TOO
COLD ESPECIALLY DOWNWIND OF THE MTNS. THE LATEST MAV FOR INSTANCE
BRINGS KHIE AND KBML DOWN TO THE UPPER TEENS. TO OFFSET THIS BIAS
I HAVE BLENDED IN SOME 2 M TEMPS FROM REGIONAL SCALE MODEL
GUIDANCE TO PROVIDE AN ELEMENT CAA MIXED LAYER. OVERALL THIS
LOWERED THE PREVIOUS FORECAST A DEGREE OR TWO. THE GRADIENT FLOW
MAY BE ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE FROST FOR MOST AREAS...BUT TEMPS
REGARDLESS LOOK TO FALL BELOW FREEZING FOR A LARGE PORTION OF THE
NRN FORECAST AREA. I EXPANDED THE FREEZE WATCH TO AREAS ON THE
BORDERLINE OF 32 DEGREES TO HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR A COLDER
FORECAST SOLUTION. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE IF RIDGING CAN MOVE IN
FASTER...ALLOWING THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO DECOUPLE. THIS WOULD MOST
LIKELY HAPPEN OVER WRN ZONES...SO THE MOST UNCERTAINTY IN THE
FORECAST LIES IN THOSE AREAS.

IT WILL BE A COOL AND BREEZY DAY SAT IN THE POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS.
WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON DEW POINT FORECASTS DURING THE DAY.
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN THE LOW TO MID 20S...WHILE BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
SHOW THE DEPTH OF MIXED LAYER HINTING AT REALITY BEING CLOSER TO
THE LOW TO MID TEENS. THIS WOULD BRING RH VALUES WELL BELOW 25
PERCENT...AND COUPLED WITH WINDS AND RECENT DRYNESS COULD CAUSE
SOME FIRE DANGER ISSUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
500MB PATTERN TRANSITIONS TO BLOCKY SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN NEXT WEEK
AS RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE ERN CONUS AND WRN ATLANTIC AND 500MB
JET RETREATS WELL POLEWARD. THIS WILL LEAD TO WARM AND MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS MOVING IN...WITH POTENTIAL FOR SCT TSRA AT TIMES AS WE
ARE ON THE SRN PERIPHERY OF IMPULSES MOVING BY IN THE STRONGER
500 MB TO OUR N.

SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE A SEASONABLY FAIR DAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
70S AND A DECENT WEST WIND WILL KEEP THE COOLER MARINE AIR MAINLY
OFFSHORE...EXCEPT MAYBE AT THE BEACHES. SUNDAY NIGHT LOOKS CLEAR
AND MORE MILD THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS WITH LOWS IN THE MID 40S N...TO
MID 50S S. DECENT WAA BEGINS TO DEVELOP TO OUR WEST ON
MONDAY...AND SHOULD CLOUDS OVERSPREAD WRN ZONES AT LEAST DURING
THE AFTERNOON...BUT THINKING ANY RAIN/SHOWERS WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL
MON NIGHT. THE SW FLOW SHOULD WARM TEMPS INLAND WELL INTO THE
MID-UPPER 70S...BUT WILL COOL THE COAST DOWN...ESPECIALLY THE MID
COAST.

DECENT MID-LVL WAA MOVES THROUGH MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING...AND
SHOULD PRODUCE A PERIOD OF RAIN OR SOME CONVECTIVE SHOWERS DURING
THIS TIMEFRAME. TDS RISE QUICKLY BEHIND THIS WARM FRONT SHOOTING
UP INTO THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S. WED-FRI WILL BE WARM AND
HUMID...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY RUNNING 80-85 INLAND...AND IN THE 70S
ON THE COAST. SOME WAVES WILL INEVITABLY MOVE OVER THE TOP OF THE
RIDGE...SO THERE WILL BE THE THREAT OF SHRA/TSRA...BUT TIMING
THIS FAR OUT IS A GUESS AT BEST.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THRU SAT. COLD FRONT CROSSING
THE FORECAST AREA WILL KICK OFF SCATTERED SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS INTERIOR WRN ME. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS MAY CONTAIN SOME
THUNDER...THOUGH THE PROBABILITY IS LOW. AT ALL TERMINALS NW WIND
GUSTS TO 25 KTS ARE POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT. GUSTY WINDS
CONTINUE AGAIN SAT.

LONG TERM...VFR EXPECTED SAT NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED MON NIGHT INTO AT LEAST TUE MORNING IS
SHRA AND LOW CLOUDS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS TODAY...WITH STRONG
CAA TO FOLLOW BEHIND IT. WINDS WILL GUST ABOVE 25 KTS LATE TONIGHT
INTO SAT MORNING. SEAS WILL BUILD TO NEAR 5 FT ON THE OUTER WATERS
BEFORE SLOWLY DIMINISHING SAT.

LONG TERM...WEST WINDS SUNDAY SHIFT TO SW ON MONDAY...AND WILL
GUST TO AROUND 20 KT BOTH DAYS BUT ARE EXPECTED TO BE SUB-SCA
LVLS. IN GENERAL WINDS WILL REMAIN BLO SCA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. SOME SEAS WELL OFFSHORE COULD REACH 5 FT LATE MON AND
TUE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY AIR MASS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TODAY. COOLER TEMPERATURES
WILL KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES GENERALLY AROUND 25 PERCENT.
LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITIES MAY BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST...WHERE
TEMPERATURES MAY CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 70S. AS COLD FRONT CROSSES
THE AREA WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY FROM THE WEST NORTHWEST. AIR
MASS WILL BECOME WINDIER AND DRIER ON SATURDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FREEZE WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     MEZ007>009-012-013.
NH...FREEZE WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     NHZ001>009-011.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LEGRO
SHORT TERM...LEGRO
LONG TERM...CEMPA
AVIATION...CEMPA/LEGRO
MARINE...CEMPA/LEGRO
FIRE WEATHER...LEGRO




000
FXUS61 KGYX 220933 AAA
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
533 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS NEW ENGLAND TODAY...SETTING OFF A FEW
SHOWERS ANS THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY...AND
CROSS THE AREAS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY....PROVIDING ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. WARM AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...A FEW MINOR CHANGES TO REFLECT CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL
TRENDS. DID INCLUDE SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POP S OF THE MTNS THIS
MORNING...AS A BAND OF VERY LIGHT SHOWERS DRIFTS THRU THE AREA ON
THE NW SIDE OF WEAK COASTAL LOW PRES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A SEASONABLY STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...USHERING IN SOME VERY CHILLY AIR. PRIOR
TO ITS ARRIVAL AREAS E OF THE MTNS SHOULD WARM SUFFICIENTLY TO
PROVIDE A LITTLE BIT OF FUEL FOR SHOWERS TO POP UP ALONG THE
FRONT.

MESOSCALE GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THAT A BAND OR
CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP QUICKLY ALONG THE MTNS AND RACE
EWD TOWARDS THE COAST...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WRN ME. FARTHER S AND
W...THE AIR MASS WILL BE QUITE DRY AND SOUNDINGS SUGGEST IT WILL
BE DIFFICULT TO SATURATE ENOUGH FOR PCPN. DEEPER MOIST LAYERS WILL
RESIDE ACROSS WRN ME...AND WILL SUPPORT LIKELY POP FOR PARTS OF
THE MIDCOAST. LOW FREEZING LEVELS WILL ALSO SUPPORT PLENTY OF ICE
IN THE CLOUDS...AND CANNOT RULE OUT SOME THUNDER OR SMALL
HAIL/GRAUPEL. STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL RESIDE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER
THANKS TO THE DRY AIR MASS...SO SOME OF THESE SHOWERS/TSTMS MAY BE
GUSTY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING H8 TEMPS BETWEEN -4 AND -8 C
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS IS NEARLY A 3 SIGMA DEPARTURE FROM
NORMAL...AND MODEL GUIDANCE HAS EVEN COOLED A LITTLE FROM LAST
NIGHT. SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY SUGGESTS THIS COLD SHOT WILL FALL WELL
WITHIN THE LOWEST 10 PERCENT OF OBSERVATIONS FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. THIS ALL ADDS UP TO A LOW TEMP FORECAST AT LEAST AS COLD AS
WED NIGHT...AND PROBABLY A FEW DEGREES COOLER.

THAT BEING SAID...MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL REMAIN AT LEAST PARTIALLY MIXED AS CAA CONTINUES
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. MAV/MET GUIDANCE CAN OFTEN BE TOO AGGRESSIVE
IN DECOUPLING THE BOUNDARY LAYER...THUS FORECASTING MIN TEMPS TOO
COLD ESPECIALLY DOWNWIND OF THE MTNS. THE LATEST MAV FOR INSTANCE
BRINGS KHIE AND KBML DOWN TO THE UPPER TEENS. TO OFFSET THIS BIAS
I HAVE BLENDED IN SOME 2 M TEMPS FROM REGIONAL SCALE MODEL
GUIDANCE TO PROVIDE AN ELEMENT CAA MIXED LAYER. OVERALL THIS
LOWERED THE PREVIOUS FORECAST A DEGREE OR TWO. THE GRADIENT FLOW
MAY BE ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE FROST FOR MOST AREAS...BUT TEMPS
REGARDLESS LOOK TO FALL BELOW FREEZING FOR A LARGE PORTION OF THE
NRN FORECAST AREA. I EXPANDED THE FREEZE WATCH TO AREAS ON THE
BORDERLINE OF 32 DEGREES TO HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR A COLDER
FORECAST SOLUTION. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE IF RIDGING CAN MOVE IN
FASTER...ALLOWING THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO DECOUPLE. THIS WOULD MOST
LIKELY HAPPEN OVER WRN ZONES...SO THE MOST UNCERTAINTY IN THE
FORECAST LIES IN THOSE AREAS.

IT WILL BE A COOL AND BREEZY DAY SAT IN THE POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS.
WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON DEW POINT FORECASTS DURING THE DAY.
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN THE LOW TO MID 20S...WHILE BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
SHOW THE DEPTH OF MIXED LAYER HINTING AT REALITY BEING CLOSER TO
THE LOW TO MID TEENS. THIS WOULD BRING RH VALUES WELL BELOW 25
PERCENT...AND COUPLED WITH WINDS AND RECENT DRYNESS COULD CAUSE
SOME FIRE DANGER ISSUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
500MB PATTERN TRANSITIONS TO BLOCKY SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN NEXT WEEK
AS RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE ERN CONUS AND WRN ATLANTIC AND 500MB
JET RETREATS WELL POLEWARD. THIS WILL LEAD TO WARM AND MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS MOVING IN...WITH POTENTIAL FOR SCT TSRA AT TIMES AS WE
ARE ON THE SRN PERIPHERY OF IMPULSES MOVING BY IN THE STRONGER
500 MB TO OUR N.

SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE A SEASONABLY FAIR DAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
70S AND A DECENT WEST WIND WILL KEEP THE COOLER MARINE AIR MAINLY
OFFSHORE...EXCEPT MAYBE AT THE BEACHES. SUNDAY NIGHT LOOKS CLEAR
AND MORE MILD THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS WITH LOWS IN THE MID 40S N...TO
MID 50S S. DECENT WAA BEGINS TO DEVELOP TO OUR WEST ON
MONDAY...AND SHOULD CLOUDS OVERSPREAD WRN ZONES AT LEAST DURING
THE AFTERNOON...BUT THINKING ANY RAIN/SHOWERS WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL
MON NIGHT. THE SW FLOW SHOULD WARM TEMPS INLAND WELL INTO THE
MID-UPPER 70S...BUT WILL COOL THE COAST DOWN...ESPECIALLY THE MID
COAST.

DECENT MID-LVL WAA MOVES THROUGH MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING...AND
SHOULD PRODUCE A PERIOD OF RAIN OR SOME CONVECTIVE SHOWERS DURING
THIS TIMEFRAME. TDS RISE QUICKLY BEHIND THIS WARM FRONT SHOOTING
UP INTO THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S. WED-FRI WILL BE WARM AND
HUMID...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY RUNNING 80-85 INLAND...AND IN THE 70S
ON THE COAST. SOME WAVES WILL INEVITABLY MOVE OVER THE TOP OF THE
RIDGE...SO THERE WILL BE THE THREAT OF SHRA/TSRA...BUT TIMING
THIS FAR OUT IS A GUESS AT BEST.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THRU SAT. COLD FRONT CROSSING
THE FORECAST AREA WILL KICK OFF SCATTERED SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS INTERIOR WRN ME. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS MAY CONTAIN SOME
THUNDER...THOUGH THE PROBABILITY IS LOW. AT ALL TERMINALS NW WIND
GUSTS TO 25 KTS ARE POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT. GUSTY WINDS
CONTINUE AGAIN SAT.

LONG TERM...VFR EXPECTED SAT NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED MON NIGHT INTO AT LEAST TUE MORNING IS
SHRA AND LOW CLOUDS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS TODAY...WITH STRONG
CAA TO FOLLOW BEHIND IT. WINDS WILL GUST ABOVE 25 KTS LATE TONIGHT
INTO SAT MORNING. SEAS WILL BUILD TO NEAR 5 FT ON THE OUTER WATERS
BEFORE SLOWLY DIMINISHING SAT.

LONG TERM...WEST WINDS SUNDAY SHIFT TO SW ON MONDAY...AND WILL
GUST TO AROUND 20 KT BOTH DAYS BUT ARE EXPECTED TO BE SUB-SCA
LVLS. IN GENERAL WINDS WILL REMAIN BLO SCA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. SOME SEAS WELL OFFSHORE COULD REACH 5 FT LATE MON AND
TUE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY AIR MASS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TODAY. COOLER TEMPERATURES
WILL KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES GENERALLY AROUND 25 PERCENT.
LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITIES MAY BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST...WHERE
TEMPERATURES MAY CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 70S. AS COLD FRONT CROSSES
THE AREA WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY FROM THE WEST NORTHWEST. AIR
MASS WILL BECOME WINDIER AND DRIER ON SATURDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FREEZE WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     MEZ007>009-012-013.
NH...FREEZE WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     NHZ001>009-011.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LEGRO
SHORT TERM...LEGRO
LONG TERM...CEMPA
AVIATION...CEMPA/LEGRO
MARINE...CEMPA/LEGRO
FIRE WEATHER...LEGRO




000
FXUS61 KCAR 220805
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
405 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TODAY. CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN UNSETTLED INTO SATURDAY AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION FROM CANADA. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY WITH
MORE SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE MAIN FOCUS THIS TERM WILL BE SHOWERS,CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL AND
HAIL.

06Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD LOW PRES MOVING ACROSS NW MAINE W/THE
COLD FRONT STILL BACK ACROSS THE QUEBEC REGION. BATCH OF SHOWERS
HAVE PULLED NE INTO NEW BRUNSWICK. IR SATL IMAGERY SHOWED CLOUDS
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION W/SOME BREAKS ACROSS NW MAINE AND MORE
BREAKS BACK ACROSS WESTERN QUEBEC. PATCHY FOG SETTING UP ACROSS
EASTERN WASHINGTON COUNTY THIS MORNING W/A LOW CLOUD DECK. THIS
AREA OF CLOUDS WAS DUE TO THE SSE FLOW FROM THE GULF OF MAINE.
AS LOW PRES PASSES N OF THE BORDER THIS MORNING, THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. MORE SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED W/THE HEAVIEST ACTIVITY ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN
MAINE. STAYED W/THE DAYCREW`S THINKING OF 60-70% POPS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA AND CHANCE ELSEWHERE. MODEL SOUNDINGS
INCLUDING THE NAM AND GFS POINT TO SOME INSTABILITY LATER THIS
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON W/THE NAM BEING THE MOST ROBUST W/ITS
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS. THE INTERESTING FEATURES OF NOTE ARE THE
850-500MB LAPSE RATES OF 6.5 C/KM AND MUCAPES 400+ JOULES. MID/UPPER
LEVELS ARE QUITE COLD PER THE 00Z UA AND ANY HEATING IN THE LLVLS
COULD GET DESTABILIZATION GOING. FREEZING LEVELS ARE FORECAST TO
BE AROUND 5500 FT W/SOME MODEST 0-6KM SHEAR(20KTS). THE LATEST RUN
OF THE WRF AND HRRR3KM SUPPORT SOME CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL.
THEREFORE, DECIDED TO ADD ISOLD TSTMS W/THE POTENTIAL FOR SMALL
HAIL THROUGH 5 PM. AFTERNOON TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE WELL BELOW
NORMAL AND LUCKY TO TOP 60 DEGREES ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SE OF THE REGION BY THIS EVENING W/COLDER
AIR ARRIVING IN EARNEST THROUGH THE ENTIRE COLUMN. THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW WILL DIVE SE FROM NW QUEBEC TONIGHT W/MORE PRECIP ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ZONES. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO PLUNGE INTO THE 30S
ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA. THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE THAT
THE PRECIP COULD BE A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS OR EVEN JUST SNOW
SHOWERS ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAR NW MAINE BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED AS GROUND TEMPERATURES ARE WARM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW WILL EXIT THROUGH THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON SATURDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST. EXPECT PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY DOWN EAST.
EXPECT GUSTY WEST WINDS ON SATURDAY AS STEEP LAPSE RATES PROMOTE A
DEEP MIXED LAYER. WEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS OVER 40
MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE A
WIND ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOW 50S NORTH AND THE MID TO UPPER 50S CENTRAL AND
DOWNEAST...WHICH IS ABOUT 10 DEGREES NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR.

SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SATURDAY NIGHT AS A SHORT WAVE
FROM THE NORTHWEST APPROACHES. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE LATER
SATURDAY NIGHT MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 40S.

A WEAK RIDGE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE EXITING SHORT WAVE ON
SUNDAY WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 60S NORTH
AND UPPER 60S DOWN EAST.


&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. A WARM FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. AN
INCREASINGLY WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS IS EXPECTED BY MID WEEK. ALONG
WITH THE WARM AND HUMID WEATHER WILL COME THE RISK OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT FROM THE
NORTHWEST. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD FINALLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
BY LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR THIS MORNING FOR ALL TERMINALS W/CONDITIONS
DROPPING TO MVFR LATER THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. NORTHERN
TERMINALS COULD HAVE A BRIEF TSTM W/SMALL HAIL. THERE WILL BE SOME
TURBULENCE INTO EARLY. WINDS BECOME NW BY THE AFTERNOON AND
INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 KTS. CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO IMPROVE TO
VFR BY THE EVENING FOR ALL TERMINALS.

SHORT TERM: VFR AND GUSTY WEST WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY.
VFR SATURDAY NIGHT EXCEPT MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCT SHOWERS MAINLY
NORTH. VFR SUNDAY/MONDAY. VFR TUESDAY WITH SCT AFTN SHOWER/TSTM
POSSIBLE.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HEADLINES FORESEEN ATTM. DECIDED TO BRING WIND GUSTS
UP SOME OVER THE OUTER ZONES TONIGHT AS NW FLOW AND CAA TAKE HOLD.
THEREFORE, GUSTS COULD HIT 25 KTS ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY OVER THE
OUTER WATERS. WAVES WILL BUILD SOME, BUT THE HIGHEST WAVES WILL
BE WELL SE OF THE REGION W/A SWELL GENERATION DEVELOPING FROM THE
LOW PASSING SE OF THE WATERS. THIS IS PICKED UP WELL BY THE SWAN
GUIDANCE. STAYED W/SEAS BUILDING TO 3-5 FT TONIGHT, MAINLY ACROSS
THE OUTER ZONES.

SHORT TERM: SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND AGAIN SUNDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HEWITT
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...HEWITT/DUDA
MARINE...HEWITT/DUDA



000
FXUS61 KCAR 220805
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
405 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TODAY. CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN UNSETTLED INTO SATURDAY AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION FROM CANADA. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY WITH
MORE SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE MAIN FOCUS THIS TERM WILL BE SHOWERS,CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL AND
HAIL.

06Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD LOW PRES MOVING ACROSS NW MAINE W/THE
COLD FRONT STILL BACK ACROSS THE QUEBEC REGION. BATCH OF SHOWERS
HAVE PULLED NE INTO NEW BRUNSWICK. IR SATL IMAGERY SHOWED CLOUDS
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION W/SOME BREAKS ACROSS NW MAINE AND MORE
BREAKS BACK ACROSS WESTERN QUEBEC. PATCHY FOG SETTING UP ACROSS
EASTERN WASHINGTON COUNTY THIS MORNING W/A LOW CLOUD DECK. THIS
AREA OF CLOUDS WAS DUE TO THE SSE FLOW FROM THE GULF OF MAINE.
AS LOW PRES PASSES N OF THE BORDER THIS MORNING, THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. MORE SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED W/THE HEAVIEST ACTIVITY ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN
MAINE. STAYED W/THE DAYCREW`S THINKING OF 60-70% POPS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA AND CHANCE ELSEWHERE. MODEL SOUNDINGS
INCLUDING THE NAM AND GFS POINT TO SOME INSTABILITY LATER THIS
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON W/THE NAM BEING THE MOST ROBUST W/ITS
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS. THE INTERESTING FEATURES OF NOTE ARE THE
850-500MB LAPSE RATES OF 6.5 C/KM AND MUCAPES 400+ JOULES. MID/UPPER
LEVELS ARE QUITE COLD PER THE 00Z UA AND ANY HEATING IN THE LLVLS
COULD GET DESTABILIZATION GOING. FREEZING LEVELS ARE FORECAST TO
BE AROUND 5500 FT W/SOME MODEST 0-6KM SHEAR(20KTS). THE LATEST RUN
OF THE WRF AND HRRR3KM SUPPORT SOME CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL.
THEREFORE, DECIDED TO ADD ISOLD TSTMS W/THE POTENTIAL FOR SMALL
HAIL THROUGH 5 PM. AFTERNOON TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE WELL BELOW
NORMAL AND LUCKY TO TOP 60 DEGREES ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SE OF THE REGION BY THIS EVENING W/COLDER
AIR ARRIVING IN EARNEST THROUGH THE ENTIRE COLUMN. THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW WILL DIVE SE FROM NW QUEBEC TONIGHT W/MORE PRECIP ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ZONES. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO PLUNGE INTO THE 30S
ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA. THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE THAT
THE PRECIP COULD BE A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS OR EVEN JUST SNOW
SHOWERS ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAR NW MAINE BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED AS GROUND TEMPERATURES ARE WARM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW WILL EXIT THROUGH THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON SATURDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST. EXPECT PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY DOWN EAST.
EXPECT GUSTY WEST WINDS ON SATURDAY AS STEEP LAPSE RATES PROMOTE A
DEEP MIXED LAYER. WEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS OVER 40
MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE A
WIND ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOW 50S NORTH AND THE MID TO UPPER 50S CENTRAL AND
DOWNEAST...WHICH IS ABOUT 10 DEGREES NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR.

SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SATURDAY NIGHT AS A SHORT WAVE
FROM THE NORTHWEST APPROACHES. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE LATER
SATURDAY NIGHT MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 40S.

A WEAK RIDGE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE EXITING SHORT WAVE ON
SUNDAY WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 60S NORTH
AND UPPER 60S DOWN EAST.


&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. A WARM FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. AN
INCREASINGLY WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS IS EXPECTED BY MID WEEK. ALONG
WITH THE WARM AND HUMID WEATHER WILL COME THE RISK OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT FROM THE
NORTHWEST. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD FINALLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
BY LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR THIS MORNING FOR ALL TERMINALS W/CONDITIONS
DROPPING TO MVFR LATER THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. NORTHERN
TERMINALS COULD HAVE A BRIEF TSTM W/SMALL HAIL. THERE WILL BE SOME
TURBULENCE INTO EARLY. WINDS BECOME NW BY THE AFTERNOON AND
INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 KTS. CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO IMPROVE TO
VFR BY THE EVENING FOR ALL TERMINALS.

SHORT TERM: VFR AND GUSTY WEST WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY.
VFR SATURDAY NIGHT EXCEPT MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCT SHOWERS MAINLY
NORTH. VFR SUNDAY/MONDAY. VFR TUESDAY WITH SCT AFTN SHOWER/TSTM
POSSIBLE.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HEADLINES FORESEEN ATTM. DECIDED TO BRING WIND GUSTS
UP SOME OVER THE OUTER ZONES TONIGHT AS NW FLOW AND CAA TAKE HOLD.
THEREFORE, GUSTS COULD HIT 25 KTS ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY OVER THE
OUTER WATERS. WAVES WILL BUILD SOME, BUT THE HIGHEST WAVES WILL
BE WELL SE OF THE REGION W/A SWELL GENERATION DEVELOPING FROM THE
LOW PASSING SE OF THE WATERS. THIS IS PICKED UP WELL BY THE SWAN
GUIDANCE. STAYED W/SEAS BUILDING TO 3-5 FT TONIGHT, MAINLY ACROSS
THE OUTER ZONES.

SHORT TERM: SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND AGAIN SUNDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HEWITT
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...HEWITT/DUDA
MARINE...HEWITT/DUDA



000
FXUS61 KCAR 220805
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
405 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TODAY. CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN UNSETTLED INTO SATURDAY AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION FROM CANADA. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY WITH
MORE SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE MAIN FOCUS THIS TERM WILL BE SHOWERS,CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL AND
HAIL.

06Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD LOW PRES MOVING ACROSS NW MAINE W/THE
COLD FRONT STILL BACK ACROSS THE QUEBEC REGION. BATCH OF SHOWERS
HAVE PULLED NE INTO NEW BRUNSWICK. IR SATL IMAGERY SHOWED CLOUDS
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION W/SOME BREAKS ACROSS NW MAINE AND MORE
BREAKS BACK ACROSS WESTERN QUEBEC. PATCHY FOG SETTING UP ACROSS
EASTERN WASHINGTON COUNTY THIS MORNING W/A LOW CLOUD DECK. THIS
AREA OF CLOUDS WAS DUE TO THE SSE FLOW FROM THE GULF OF MAINE.
AS LOW PRES PASSES N OF THE BORDER THIS MORNING, THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. MORE SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED W/THE HEAVIEST ACTIVITY ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN
MAINE. STAYED W/THE DAYCREW`S THINKING OF 60-70% POPS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA AND CHANCE ELSEWHERE. MODEL SOUNDINGS
INCLUDING THE NAM AND GFS POINT TO SOME INSTABILITY LATER THIS
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON W/THE NAM BEING THE MOST ROBUST W/ITS
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS. THE INTERESTING FEATURES OF NOTE ARE THE
850-500MB LAPSE RATES OF 6.5 C/KM AND MUCAPES 400+ JOULES. MID/UPPER
LEVELS ARE QUITE COLD PER THE 00Z UA AND ANY HEATING IN THE LLVLS
COULD GET DESTABILIZATION GOING. FREEZING LEVELS ARE FORECAST TO
BE AROUND 5500 FT W/SOME MODEST 0-6KM SHEAR(20KTS). THE LATEST RUN
OF THE WRF AND HRRR3KM SUPPORT SOME CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL.
THEREFORE, DECIDED TO ADD ISOLD TSTMS W/THE POTENTIAL FOR SMALL
HAIL THROUGH 5 PM. AFTERNOON TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE WELL BELOW
NORMAL AND LUCKY TO TOP 60 DEGREES ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SE OF THE REGION BY THIS EVENING W/COLDER
AIR ARRIVING IN EARNEST THROUGH THE ENTIRE COLUMN. THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW WILL DIVE SE FROM NW QUEBEC TONIGHT W/MORE PRECIP ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ZONES. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO PLUNGE INTO THE 30S
ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA. THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE THAT
THE PRECIP COULD BE A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS OR EVEN JUST SNOW
SHOWERS ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAR NW MAINE BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED AS GROUND TEMPERATURES ARE WARM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW WILL EXIT THROUGH THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON SATURDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST. EXPECT PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY DOWN EAST.
EXPECT GUSTY WEST WINDS ON SATURDAY AS STEEP LAPSE RATES PROMOTE A
DEEP MIXED LAYER. WEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS OVER 40
MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE A
WIND ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOW 50S NORTH AND THE MID TO UPPER 50S CENTRAL AND
DOWNEAST...WHICH IS ABOUT 10 DEGREES NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR.

SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SATURDAY NIGHT AS A SHORT WAVE
FROM THE NORTHWEST APPROACHES. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE LATER
SATURDAY NIGHT MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 40S.

A WEAK RIDGE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE EXITING SHORT WAVE ON
SUNDAY WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 60S NORTH
AND UPPER 60S DOWN EAST.


&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. A WARM FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. AN
INCREASINGLY WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS IS EXPECTED BY MID WEEK. ALONG
WITH THE WARM AND HUMID WEATHER WILL COME THE RISK OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT FROM THE
NORTHWEST. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD FINALLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
BY LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR THIS MORNING FOR ALL TERMINALS W/CONDITIONS
DROPPING TO MVFR LATER THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. NORTHERN
TERMINALS COULD HAVE A BRIEF TSTM W/SMALL HAIL. THERE WILL BE SOME
TURBULENCE INTO EARLY. WINDS BECOME NW BY THE AFTERNOON AND
INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 KTS. CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO IMPROVE TO
VFR BY THE EVENING FOR ALL TERMINALS.

SHORT TERM: VFR AND GUSTY WEST WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY.
VFR SATURDAY NIGHT EXCEPT MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCT SHOWERS MAINLY
NORTH. VFR SUNDAY/MONDAY. VFR TUESDAY WITH SCT AFTN SHOWER/TSTM
POSSIBLE.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HEADLINES FORESEEN ATTM. DECIDED TO BRING WIND GUSTS
UP SOME OVER THE OUTER ZONES TONIGHT AS NW FLOW AND CAA TAKE HOLD.
THEREFORE, GUSTS COULD HIT 25 KTS ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY OVER THE
OUTER WATERS. WAVES WILL BUILD SOME, BUT THE HIGHEST WAVES WILL
BE WELL SE OF THE REGION W/A SWELL GENERATION DEVELOPING FROM THE
LOW PASSING SE OF THE WATERS. THIS IS PICKED UP WELL BY THE SWAN
GUIDANCE. STAYED W/SEAS BUILDING TO 3-5 FT TONIGHT, MAINLY ACROSS
THE OUTER ZONES.

SHORT TERM: SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND AGAIN SUNDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HEWITT
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...HEWITT/DUDA
MARINE...HEWITT/DUDA



000
FXUS61 KCAR 220805
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
405 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TODAY. CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN UNSETTLED INTO SATURDAY AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION FROM CANADA. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY WITH
MORE SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE MAIN FOCUS THIS TERM WILL BE SHOWERS,CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL AND
HAIL.

06Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD LOW PRES MOVING ACROSS NW MAINE W/THE
COLD FRONT STILL BACK ACROSS THE QUEBEC REGION. BATCH OF SHOWERS
HAVE PULLED NE INTO NEW BRUNSWICK. IR SATL IMAGERY SHOWED CLOUDS
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION W/SOME BREAKS ACROSS NW MAINE AND MORE
BREAKS BACK ACROSS WESTERN QUEBEC. PATCHY FOG SETTING UP ACROSS
EASTERN WASHINGTON COUNTY THIS MORNING W/A LOW CLOUD DECK. THIS
AREA OF CLOUDS WAS DUE TO THE SSE FLOW FROM THE GULF OF MAINE.
AS LOW PRES PASSES N OF THE BORDER THIS MORNING, THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. MORE SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED W/THE HEAVIEST ACTIVITY ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN
MAINE. STAYED W/THE DAYCREW`S THINKING OF 60-70% POPS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA AND CHANCE ELSEWHERE. MODEL SOUNDINGS
INCLUDING THE NAM AND GFS POINT TO SOME INSTABILITY LATER THIS
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON W/THE NAM BEING THE MOST ROBUST W/ITS
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS. THE INTERESTING FEATURES OF NOTE ARE THE
850-500MB LAPSE RATES OF 6.5 C/KM AND MUCAPES 400+ JOULES. MID/UPPER
LEVELS ARE QUITE COLD PER THE 00Z UA AND ANY HEATING IN THE LLVLS
COULD GET DESTABILIZATION GOING. FREEZING LEVELS ARE FORECAST TO
BE AROUND 5500 FT W/SOME MODEST 0-6KM SHEAR(20KTS). THE LATEST RUN
OF THE WRF AND HRRR3KM SUPPORT SOME CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL.
THEREFORE, DECIDED TO ADD ISOLD TSTMS W/THE POTENTIAL FOR SMALL
HAIL THROUGH 5 PM. AFTERNOON TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE WELL BELOW
NORMAL AND LUCKY TO TOP 60 DEGREES ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SE OF THE REGION BY THIS EVENING W/COLDER
AIR ARRIVING IN EARNEST THROUGH THE ENTIRE COLUMN. THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW WILL DIVE SE FROM NW QUEBEC TONIGHT W/MORE PRECIP ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ZONES. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO PLUNGE INTO THE 30S
ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA. THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE THAT
THE PRECIP COULD BE A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS OR EVEN JUST SNOW
SHOWERS ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAR NW MAINE BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED AS GROUND TEMPERATURES ARE WARM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW WILL EXIT THROUGH THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON SATURDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST. EXPECT PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY DOWN EAST.
EXPECT GUSTY WEST WINDS ON SATURDAY AS STEEP LAPSE RATES PROMOTE A
DEEP MIXED LAYER. WEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS OVER 40
MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE A
WIND ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOW 50S NORTH AND THE MID TO UPPER 50S CENTRAL AND
DOWNEAST...WHICH IS ABOUT 10 DEGREES NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR.

SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SATURDAY NIGHT AS A SHORT WAVE
FROM THE NORTHWEST APPROACHES. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE LATER
SATURDAY NIGHT MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 40S.

A WEAK RIDGE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE EXITING SHORT WAVE ON
SUNDAY WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 60S NORTH
AND UPPER 60S DOWN EAST.


&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. A WARM FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. AN
INCREASINGLY WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS IS EXPECTED BY MID WEEK. ALONG
WITH THE WARM AND HUMID WEATHER WILL COME THE RISK OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT FROM THE
NORTHWEST. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD FINALLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
BY LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR THIS MORNING FOR ALL TERMINALS W/CONDITIONS
DROPPING TO MVFR LATER THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. NORTHERN
TERMINALS COULD HAVE A BRIEF TSTM W/SMALL HAIL. THERE WILL BE SOME
TURBULENCE INTO EARLY. WINDS BECOME NW BY THE AFTERNOON AND
INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 KTS. CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO IMPROVE TO
VFR BY THE EVENING FOR ALL TERMINALS.

SHORT TERM: VFR AND GUSTY WEST WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY.
VFR SATURDAY NIGHT EXCEPT MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCT SHOWERS MAINLY
NORTH. VFR SUNDAY/MONDAY. VFR TUESDAY WITH SCT AFTN SHOWER/TSTM
POSSIBLE.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HEADLINES FORESEEN ATTM. DECIDED TO BRING WIND GUSTS
UP SOME OVER THE OUTER ZONES TONIGHT AS NW FLOW AND CAA TAKE HOLD.
THEREFORE, GUSTS COULD HIT 25 KTS ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY OVER THE
OUTER WATERS. WAVES WILL BUILD SOME, BUT THE HIGHEST WAVES WILL
BE WELL SE OF THE REGION W/A SWELL GENERATION DEVELOPING FROM THE
LOW PASSING SE OF THE WATERS. THIS IS PICKED UP WELL BY THE SWAN
GUIDANCE. STAYED W/SEAS BUILDING TO 3-5 FT TONIGHT, MAINLY ACROSS
THE OUTER ZONES.

SHORT TERM: SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND AGAIN SUNDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HEWITT
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...HEWITT/DUDA
MARINE...HEWITT/DUDA



000
FXUS61 KCAR 220805
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
405 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TODAY. CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN UNSETTLED INTO SATURDAY AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION FROM CANADA. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY WITH
MORE SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE MAIN FOCUS THIS TERM WILL BE SHOWERS,CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL AND
HAIL.

06Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD LOW PRES MOVING ACROSS NW MAINE W/THE
COLD FRONT STILL BACK ACROSS THE QUEBEC REGION. BATCH OF SHOWERS
HAVE PULLED NE INTO NEW BRUNSWICK. IR SATL IMAGERY SHOWED CLOUDS
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION W/SOME BREAKS ACROSS NW MAINE AND MORE
BREAKS BACK ACROSS WESTERN QUEBEC. PATCHY FOG SETTING UP ACROSS
EASTERN WASHINGTON COUNTY THIS MORNING W/A LOW CLOUD DECK. THIS
AREA OF CLOUDS WAS DUE TO THE SSE FLOW FROM THE GULF OF MAINE.
AS LOW PRES PASSES N OF THE BORDER THIS MORNING, THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. MORE SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED W/THE HEAVIEST ACTIVITY ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN
MAINE. STAYED W/THE DAYCREW`S THINKING OF 60-70% POPS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA AND CHANCE ELSEWHERE. MODEL SOUNDINGS
INCLUDING THE NAM AND GFS POINT TO SOME INSTABILITY LATER THIS
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON W/THE NAM BEING THE MOST ROBUST W/ITS
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS. THE INTERESTING FEATURES OF NOTE ARE THE
850-500MB LAPSE RATES OF 6.5 C/KM AND MUCAPES 400+ JOULES. MID/UPPER
LEVELS ARE QUITE COLD PER THE 00Z UA AND ANY HEATING IN THE LLVLS
COULD GET DESTABILIZATION GOING. FREEZING LEVELS ARE FORECAST TO
BE AROUND 5500 FT W/SOME MODEST 0-6KM SHEAR(20KTS). THE LATEST RUN
OF THE WRF AND HRRR3KM SUPPORT SOME CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL.
THEREFORE, DECIDED TO ADD ISOLD TSTMS W/THE POTENTIAL FOR SMALL
HAIL THROUGH 5 PM. AFTERNOON TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE WELL BELOW
NORMAL AND LUCKY TO TOP 60 DEGREES ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SE OF THE REGION BY THIS EVENING W/COLDER
AIR ARRIVING IN EARNEST THROUGH THE ENTIRE COLUMN. THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW WILL DIVE SE FROM NW QUEBEC TONIGHT W/MORE PRECIP ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ZONES. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO PLUNGE INTO THE 30S
ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA. THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE THAT
THE PRECIP COULD BE A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS OR EVEN JUST SNOW
SHOWERS ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAR NW MAINE BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED AS GROUND TEMPERATURES ARE WARM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW WILL EXIT THROUGH THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON SATURDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST. EXPECT PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY DOWN EAST.
EXPECT GUSTY WEST WINDS ON SATURDAY AS STEEP LAPSE RATES PROMOTE A
DEEP MIXED LAYER. WEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS OVER 40
MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE A
WIND ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOW 50S NORTH AND THE MID TO UPPER 50S CENTRAL AND
DOWNEAST...WHICH IS ABOUT 10 DEGREES NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR.

SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SATURDAY NIGHT AS A SHORT WAVE
FROM THE NORTHWEST APPROACHES. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE LATER
SATURDAY NIGHT MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 40S.

A WEAK RIDGE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE EXITING SHORT WAVE ON
SUNDAY WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 60S NORTH
AND UPPER 60S DOWN EAST.


&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. A WARM FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. AN
INCREASINGLY WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS IS EXPECTED BY MID WEEK. ALONG
WITH THE WARM AND HUMID WEATHER WILL COME THE RISK OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT FROM THE
NORTHWEST. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD FINALLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
BY LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR THIS MORNING FOR ALL TERMINALS W/CONDITIONS
DROPPING TO MVFR LATER THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. NORTHERN
TERMINALS COULD HAVE A BRIEF TSTM W/SMALL HAIL. THERE WILL BE SOME
TURBULENCE INTO EARLY. WINDS BECOME NW BY THE AFTERNOON AND
INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 KTS. CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO IMPROVE TO
VFR BY THE EVENING FOR ALL TERMINALS.

SHORT TERM: VFR AND GUSTY WEST WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY.
VFR SATURDAY NIGHT EXCEPT MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCT SHOWERS MAINLY
NORTH. VFR SUNDAY/MONDAY. VFR TUESDAY WITH SCT AFTN SHOWER/TSTM
POSSIBLE.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HEADLINES FORESEEN ATTM. DECIDED TO BRING WIND GUSTS
UP SOME OVER THE OUTER ZONES TONIGHT AS NW FLOW AND CAA TAKE HOLD.
THEREFORE, GUSTS COULD HIT 25 KTS ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY OVER THE
OUTER WATERS. WAVES WILL BUILD SOME, BUT THE HIGHEST WAVES WILL
BE WELL SE OF THE REGION W/A SWELL GENERATION DEVELOPING FROM THE
LOW PASSING SE OF THE WATERS. THIS IS PICKED UP WELL BY THE SWAN
GUIDANCE. STAYED W/SEAS BUILDING TO 3-5 FT TONIGHT, MAINLY ACROSS
THE OUTER ZONES.

SHORT TERM: SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND AGAIN SUNDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HEWITT
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...HEWITT/DUDA
MARINE...HEWITT/DUDA




000
FXUS61 KGYX 220746
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
346 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS NEW ENGLAND TODAY...SETTING OFF A FEW
SHOWERS ANS THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY...AND
CROSS THE AREAS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY....PROVIDING ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. WARM AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
A SEASONABLY STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY...USHERING IN SOME VERY CHILLY AIR. PRIOR TO ITS ARRIVAL
AREAS E OF THE MTNS SHOULD WARM SUFFICIENTLY TO PROVIDE A LITTLE
BIT OF FUEL FOR SHOWERS TO POP UP ALONG THE FRONT.

MESOSCALE GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THAT A BAND OR
CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP QUICKLY ALONG THE MTNS AND RACE
EWD TOWARDS THE COAST...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WRN ME. FARTHER S AND
W...THE AIR MASS WILL BE QUITE DRY AND SOUNDINGS SUGGEST IT WILL
BE DIFFICULT TO SATURATE ENOUGH FOR PCPN. DEEPER MOIST LAYERS WILL
RESIDE ACROSS WRN ME...AND WILL SUPPORT LIKELY POP FOR PARTS OF
THE MIDCOAST. LOW FREEZING LEVELS WILL ALSO SUPPORT PLENTY OF ICE
IN THE CLOUDS...AND CANNOT RULE OUT SOME THUNDER OR SMALL
HAIL/GRAUPEL. STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL RESIDE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER
THANKS TO THE DRY AIR MASS...SO SOME OF THESE SHOWERS/TSTMS MAY BE
GUSTY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING H8 TEMPS BETWEEN -4 AND -8 C
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS IS NEARLY A 3 SIGMA DEPARTURE FROM
NORMAL...AND MODEL GUIDANCE HAS EVEN COOLED A LITTLE FROM LAST
NIGHT. SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY SUGGESTS THIS COLD SHOT WILL FALL WELL
WITHIN THE LOWEST 10 PERCENT OF OBSERVATIONS FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. THIS ALL ADDS UP TO A LOW TEMP FORECAST AT LEAST AS COLD AS
WED NIGHT...AND PROBABLY A FEW DEGREES COOLER.

THAT BEING SAID...MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL REMAIN AT LEAST PARTIALLY MIXED AS CAA CONTINUES
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. MAV/MET GUIDANCE CAN OFTEN BE TOO AGGRESSIVE
IN DECOUPLING THE BOUNDARY LAYER...THUS FORECASTING MIN TEMPS TOO
COLD ESPECIALLY DOWNWIND OF THE MTNS. THE LATEST MAV FOR INSTANCE
BRINGS KHIE AND KBML DOWN TO THE UPPER TEENS. TO OFFSET THIS BIAS
I HAVE BLENDED IN SOME 2 M TEMPS FROM REGIONAL SCALE MODEL
GUIDANCE TO PROVIDE AN ELEMENT CAA MIXED LAYER. OVERALL THIS
LOWERED THE PREVIOUS FORECAST A DEGREE OR TWO. THE GRADIENT FLOW
MAY BE ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE FROST FOR MOST AREAS...BUT TEMPS
REGARDLESS LOOK TO FALL BELOW FREEZING FOR A LARGE PORTION OF THE
NRN FORECAST AREA. I EXPANDED THE FREEZE WATCH TO AREAS ON THE
BORDERLINE OF 32 DEGREES TO HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR A COLDER
FORECAST SOLUTION. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE IF RIDGING CAN MOVE IN
FASTER...ALLOWING THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO DECOUPLE. THIS WOULD MOST
LIKELY HAPPEN OVER WRN ZONES...SO THE MOST UNCERTAINTY IN THE
FORECAST LIES IN THOSE AREAS.

IT WILL BE A COOL AND BREEZY DAY SAT IN THE POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS.
WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON DEW POINT FORECASTS DURING THE DAY.
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN THE LOW TO MID 20S...WHILE BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
SHOW THE DEPTH OF MIXED LAYER HINTING AT REALITY BEING CLOSER TO
THE LOW TO MID TEENS. THIS WOULD BRING RH VALUES WELL BELOW 25
PERCENT...AND COUPLED WITH WINDS AND RECENT DRYNESS COULD CAUSE
SOME FIRE DANGER ISSUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
500MB PATTERN TRANSITIONS TO BLOCKY SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN NEXT WEEK
AS RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE ERN CONUS AND WRN ATLANTIC AND 500MB
JET RETREATS WELL POLEWARD. THIS WILL LEAD TO WARM AND MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS MOVING IN...WITH POTENTIAL FOR SCT TSRA AT TIMES AS WE
ARE ON THE SRN PERIPHERY OF IMPULSES MOVING BY IN THE STRONGER
500 MB TO OUR N.

SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE A SEASONABLY FAIR DAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
70S AND A DECENT WEST WIND WILL KEEP THE COOLER MARINE AIR MAINLY
OFFSHORE...EXCEPT MAYBE AT THE BEACHES. SUNDAY NIGHT LOOKS CLEAR
AND MORE MILD THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS WITH LOWS IN THE MID 40S N...TO
MID 50S S. DECENT WAA BEGINS TO DEVELOP TO OUR WEST ON
MONDAY...AND SHOULD CLOUDS OVERSPREAD WRN ZONES AT LEAST DURING
THE AFTERNOON...BUT THINKING ANY RAIN/SHOWERS WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL
MON NIGHT. THE SW FLOW SHOULD WARM TEMPS INLAND WELL INTO THE
MID-UPPER 70S...BUT WILL COOL THE COAST DOWN...ESPECIALLY THE MID
COAST.

DECENT MID-LVL WAA MOVES THROUGH MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING...AND
SHOULD PRODUCE A PERIOD OF RAIN OR SOME CONVECTIVE SHOWERS DURING
THIS TIMEFRAME. TDS RISE QUICKLY BEHIND THIS WARM FRONT SHOOTING
UP INTO THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S. WED-FRI WILL BE WARM AND
HUMID...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY RUNNING 80-85 INLAND...AND IN THE 70S
ON THE COAST. SOME WAVES WILL INEVITABLY MOVE OVER THE TOP OF THE
RIDGE...SO THERE WILL BE THE THREAT OF SHRA/TSRA...BUT TIMING
THIS FAR OUT IS A GUESS AT BEST.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THRU SAT. COLD FRONT CROSSING
THE FORECAST AREA WILL KICK OFF SCATTERED SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS INTERIOR WRN ME. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS MAY CONTAIN SOME
THUNDER...THOUGH THE PROBABILITY IS LOW. AT ALL TERMINALS NW WIND
GUSTS TO 25 KTS ARE POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT. GUSTY WINDS
CONTINUE AGAIN SAT.

LONG TERM...VFR EXPECTED SAT NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED MON NIGHT INTO AT LEAST TUE MORNING IS
SHRA AND LOW CLOUDS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS TODAY...WITH STRONG
CAA TO FOLLOW BEHIND IT. WINDS WILL GUST ABOVE 25 KTS LATE TONIGHT
INTO SAT MORNING. SEAS WILL BUILD TO NEAR 5 FT ON THE OUTER WATERS
BEFORE SLOWLY DIMINISHING SAT.

LONG TERM...WEST WINDS SUNDAY SHIFT TO SW ON MONDAY...AND WILL
GUST TO AROUND 20 KT BOTH DAYS BUT ARE EXPECTED TO BE SUB-SCA
LVLS. IN GENERAL WINDS WILL REMAIN BLO SCA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. SOME SEAS WELL OFFSHORE COULD REACH 5 FT LATE MON AND
TUE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY AIR MASS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TODAY. COOLER TEMPERATURES
WILL KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES GENERALLY AROUND 25 PERCENT.
LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITIES MAY BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST...WHERE
TEMPERATURES MAY CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 70S. AS COLD FRONT CROSSES
THE AREA WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY FROM THE WEST NORTHWEST. AIR
MASS WILL BECOME WINDIER AND DRIER ON SATURDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FREEZE WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     MEZ007>009-012-013.
NH...FREEZE WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     NHZ001>009-011.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LEGRO
SHORT TERM...LEGRO
LONG TERM...CEMPA
AVIATION...CEMPA/LEGRO
MARINE...CEMPA/LEGRO
FIRE WEATHER...LEGRO



000
FXUS61 KGYX 220746
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
346 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS NEW ENGLAND TODAY...SETTING OFF A FEW
SHOWERS ANS THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY...AND
CROSS THE AREAS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY....PROVIDING ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. WARM AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
A SEASONABLY STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY...USHERING IN SOME VERY CHILLY AIR. PRIOR TO ITS ARRIVAL
AREAS E OF THE MTNS SHOULD WARM SUFFICIENTLY TO PROVIDE A LITTLE
BIT OF FUEL FOR SHOWERS TO POP UP ALONG THE FRONT.

MESOSCALE GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THAT A BAND OR
CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP QUICKLY ALONG THE MTNS AND RACE
EWD TOWARDS THE COAST...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WRN ME. FARTHER S AND
W...THE AIR MASS WILL BE QUITE DRY AND SOUNDINGS SUGGEST IT WILL
BE DIFFICULT TO SATURATE ENOUGH FOR PCPN. DEEPER MOIST LAYERS WILL
RESIDE ACROSS WRN ME...AND WILL SUPPORT LIKELY POP FOR PARTS OF
THE MIDCOAST. LOW FREEZING LEVELS WILL ALSO SUPPORT PLENTY OF ICE
IN THE CLOUDS...AND CANNOT RULE OUT SOME THUNDER OR SMALL
HAIL/GRAUPEL. STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL RESIDE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER
THANKS TO THE DRY AIR MASS...SO SOME OF THESE SHOWERS/TSTMS MAY BE
GUSTY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING H8 TEMPS BETWEEN -4 AND -8 C
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS IS NEARLY A 3 SIGMA DEPARTURE FROM
NORMAL...AND MODEL GUIDANCE HAS EVEN COOLED A LITTLE FROM LAST
NIGHT. SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY SUGGESTS THIS COLD SHOT WILL FALL WELL
WITHIN THE LOWEST 10 PERCENT OF OBSERVATIONS FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. THIS ALL ADDS UP TO A LOW TEMP FORECAST AT LEAST AS COLD AS
WED NIGHT...AND PROBABLY A FEW DEGREES COOLER.

THAT BEING SAID...MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL REMAIN AT LEAST PARTIALLY MIXED AS CAA CONTINUES
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. MAV/MET GUIDANCE CAN OFTEN BE TOO AGGRESSIVE
IN DECOUPLING THE BOUNDARY LAYER...THUS FORECASTING MIN TEMPS TOO
COLD ESPECIALLY DOWNWIND OF THE MTNS. THE LATEST MAV FOR INSTANCE
BRINGS KHIE AND KBML DOWN TO THE UPPER TEENS. TO OFFSET THIS BIAS
I HAVE BLENDED IN SOME 2 M TEMPS FROM REGIONAL SCALE MODEL
GUIDANCE TO PROVIDE AN ELEMENT CAA MIXED LAYER. OVERALL THIS
LOWERED THE PREVIOUS FORECAST A DEGREE OR TWO. THE GRADIENT FLOW
MAY BE ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE FROST FOR MOST AREAS...BUT TEMPS
REGARDLESS LOOK TO FALL BELOW FREEZING FOR A LARGE PORTION OF THE
NRN FORECAST AREA. I EXPANDED THE FREEZE WATCH TO AREAS ON THE
BORDERLINE OF 32 DEGREES TO HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR A COLDER
FORECAST SOLUTION. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE IF RIDGING CAN MOVE IN
FASTER...ALLOWING THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO DECOUPLE. THIS WOULD MOST
LIKELY HAPPEN OVER WRN ZONES...SO THE MOST UNCERTAINTY IN THE
FORECAST LIES IN THOSE AREAS.

IT WILL BE A COOL AND BREEZY DAY SAT IN THE POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS.
WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON DEW POINT FORECASTS DURING THE DAY.
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN THE LOW TO MID 20S...WHILE BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
SHOW THE DEPTH OF MIXED LAYER HINTING AT REALITY BEING CLOSER TO
THE LOW TO MID TEENS. THIS WOULD BRING RH VALUES WELL BELOW 25
PERCENT...AND COUPLED WITH WINDS AND RECENT DRYNESS COULD CAUSE
SOME FIRE DANGER ISSUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
500MB PATTERN TRANSITIONS TO BLOCKY SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN NEXT WEEK
AS RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE ERN CONUS AND WRN ATLANTIC AND 500MB
JET RETREATS WELL POLEWARD. THIS WILL LEAD TO WARM AND MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS MOVING IN...WITH POTENTIAL FOR SCT TSRA AT TIMES AS WE
ARE ON THE SRN PERIPHERY OF IMPULSES MOVING BY IN THE STRONGER
500 MB TO OUR N.

SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE A SEASONABLY FAIR DAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
70S AND A DECENT WEST WIND WILL KEEP THE COOLER MARINE AIR MAINLY
OFFSHORE...EXCEPT MAYBE AT THE BEACHES. SUNDAY NIGHT LOOKS CLEAR
AND MORE MILD THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS WITH LOWS IN THE MID 40S N...TO
MID 50S S. DECENT WAA BEGINS TO DEVELOP TO OUR WEST ON
MONDAY...AND SHOULD CLOUDS OVERSPREAD WRN ZONES AT LEAST DURING
THE AFTERNOON...BUT THINKING ANY RAIN/SHOWERS WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL
MON NIGHT. THE SW FLOW SHOULD WARM TEMPS INLAND WELL INTO THE
MID-UPPER 70S...BUT WILL COOL THE COAST DOWN...ESPECIALLY THE MID
COAST.

DECENT MID-LVL WAA MOVES THROUGH MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING...AND
SHOULD PRODUCE A PERIOD OF RAIN OR SOME CONVECTIVE SHOWERS DURING
THIS TIMEFRAME. TDS RISE QUICKLY BEHIND THIS WARM FRONT SHOOTING
UP INTO THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S. WED-FRI WILL BE WARM AND
HUMID...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY RUNNING 80-85 INLAND...AND IN THE 70S
ON THE COAST. SOME WAVES WILL INEVITABLY MOVE OVER THE TOP OF THE
RIDGE...SO THERE WILL BE THE THREAT OF SHRA/TSRA...BUT TIMING
THIS FAR OUT IS A GUESS AT BEST.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THRU SAT. COLD FRONT CROSSING
THE FORECAST AREA WILL KICK OFF SCATTERED SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS INTERIOR WRN ME. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS MAY CONTAIN SOME
THUNDER...THOUGH THE PROBABILITY IS LOW. AT ALL TERMINALS NW WIND
GUSTS TO 25 KTS ARE POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT. GUSTY WINDS
CONTINUE AGAIN SAT.

LONG TERM...VFR EXPECTED SAT NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED MON NIGHT INTO AT LEAST TUE MORNING IS
SHRA AND LOW CLOUDS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS TODAY...WITH STRONG
CAA TO FOLLOW BEHIND IT. WINDS WILL GUST ABOVE 25 KTS LATE TONIGHT
INTO SAT MORNING. SEAS WILL BUILD TO NEAR 5 FT ON THE OUTER WATERS
BEFORE SLOWLY DIMINISHING SAT.

LONG TERM...WEST WINDS SUNDAY SHIFT TO SW ON MONDAY...AND WILL
GUST TO AROUND 20 KT BOTH DAYS BUT ARE EXPECTED TO BE SUB-SCA
LVLS. IN GENERAL WINDS WILL REMAIN BLO SCA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. SOME SEAS WELL OFFSHORE COULD REACH 5 FT LATE MON AND
TUE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY AIR MASS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TODAY. COOLER TEMPERATURES
WILL KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES GENERALLY AROUND 25 PERCENT.
LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITIES MAY BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST...WHERE
TEMPERATURES MAY CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 70S. AS COLD FRONT CROSSES
THE AREA WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY FROM THE WEST NORTHWEST. AIR
MASS WILL BECOME WINDIER AND DRIER ON SATURDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FREEZE WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     MEZ007>009-012-013.
NH...FREEZE WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     NHZ001>009-011.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LEGRO
SHORT TERM...LEGRO
LONG TERM...CEMPA
AVIATION...CEMPA/LEGRO
MARINE...CEMPA/LEGRO
FIRE WEATHER...LEGRO




000
FXUS61 KGYX 220746
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
346 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS NEW ENGLAND TODAY...SETTING OFF A FEW
SHOWERS ANS THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY...AND
CROSS THE AREAS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY....PROVIDING ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. WARM AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
A SEASONABLY STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY...USHERING IN SOME VERY CHILLY AIR. PRIOR TO ITS ARRIVAL
AREAS E OF THE MTNS SHOULD WARM SUFFICIENTLY TO PROVIDE A LITTLE
BIT OF FUEL FOR SHOWERS TO POP UP ALONG THE FRONT.

MESOSCALE GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THAT A BAND OR
CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP QUICKLY ALONG THE MTNS AND RACE
EWD TOWARDS THE COAST...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WRN ME. FARTHER S AND
W...THE AIR MASS WILL BE QUITE DRY AND SOUNDINGS SUGGEST IT WILL
BE DIFFICULT TO SATURATE ENOUGH FOR PCPN. DEEPER MOIST LAYERS WILL
RESIDE ACROSS WRN ME...AND WILL SUPPORT LIKELY POP FOR PARTS OF
THE MIDCOAST. LOW FREEZING LEVELS WILL ALSO SUPPORT PLENTY OF ICE
IN THE CLOUDS...AND CANNOT RULE OUT SOME THUNDER OR SMALL
HAIL/GRAUPEL. STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL RESIDE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER
THANKS TO THE DRY AIR MASS...SO SOME OF THESE SHOWERS/TSTMS MAY BE
GUSTY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING H8 TEMPS BETWEEN -4 AND -8 C
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS IS NEARLY A 3 SIGMA DEPARTURE FROM
NORMAL...AND MODEL GUIDANCE HAS EVEN COOLED A LITTLE FROM LAST
NIGHT. SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY SUGGESTS THIS COLD SHOT WILL FALL WELL
WITHIN THE LOWEST 10 PERCENT OF OBSERVATIONS FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. THIS ALL ADDS UP TO A LOW TEMP FORECAST AT LEAST AS COLD AS
WED NIGHT...AND PROBABLY A FEW DEGREES COOLER.

THAT BEING SAID...MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL REMAIN AT LEAST PARTIALLY MIXED AS CAA CONTINUES
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. MAV/MET GUIDANCE CAN OFTEN BE TOO AGGRESSIVE
IN DECOUPLING THE BOUNDARY LAYER...THUS FORECASTING MIN TEMPS TOO
COLD ESPECIALLY DOWNWIND OF THE MTNS. THE LATEST MAV FOR INSTANCE
BRINGS KHIE AND KBML DOWN TO THE UPPER TEENS. TO OFFSET THIS BIAS
I HAVE BLENDED IN SOME 2 M TEMPS FROM REGIONAL SCALE MODEL
GUIDANCE TO PROVIDE AN ELEMENT CAA MIXED LAYER. OVERALL THIS
LOWERED THE PREVIOUS FORECAST A DEGREE OR TWO. THE GRADIENT FLOW
MAY BE ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE FROST FOR MOST AREAS...BUT TEMPS
REGARDLESS LOOK TO FALL BELOW FREEZING FOR A LARGE PORTION OF THE
NRN FORECAST AREA. I EXPANDED THE FREEZE WATCH TO AREAS ON THE
BORDERLINE OF 32 DEGREES TO HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR A COLDER
FORECAST SOLUTION. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE IF RIDGING CAN MOVE IN
FASTER...ALLOWING THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO DECOUPLE. THIS WOULD MOST
LIKELY HAPPEN OVER WRN ZONES...SO THE MOST UNCERTAINTY IN THE
FORECAST LIES IN THOSE AREAS.

IT WILL BE A COOL AND BREEZY DAY SAT IN THE POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS.
WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON DEW POINT FORECASTS DURING THE DAY.
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN THE LOW TO MID 20S...WHILE BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
SHOW THE DEPTH OF MIXED LAYER HINTING AT REALITY BEING CLOSER TO
THE LOW TO MID TEENS. THIS WOULD BRING RH VALUES WELL BELOW 25
PERCENT...AND COUPLED WITH WINDS AND RECENT DRYNESS COULD CAUSE
SOME FIRE DANGER ISSUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
500MB PATTERN TRANSITIONS TO BLOCKY SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN NEXT WEEK
AS RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE ERN CONUS AND WRN ATLANTIC AND 500MB
JET RETREATS WELL POLEWARD. THIS WILL LEAD TO WARM AND MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS MOVING IN...WITH POTENTIAL FOR SCT TSRA AT TIMES AS WE
ARE ON THE SRN PERIPHERY OF IMPULSES MOVING BY IN THE STRONGER
500 MB TO OUR N.

SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE A SEASONABLY FAIR DAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
70S AND A DECENT WEST WIND WILL KEEP THE COOLER MARINE AIR MAINLY
OFFSHORE...EXCEPT MAYBE AT THE BEACHES. SUNDAY NIGHT LOOKS CLEAR
AND MORE MILD THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS WITH LOWS IN THE MID 40S N...TO
MID 50S S. DECENT WAA BEGINS TO DEVELOP TO OUR WEST ON
MONDAY...AND SHOULD CLOUDS OVERSPREAD WRN ZONES AT LEAST DURING
THE AFTERNOON...BUT THINKING ANY RAIN/SHOWERS WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL
MON NIGHT. THE SW FLOW SHOULD WARM TEMPS INLAND WELL INTO THE
MID-UPPER 70S...BUT WILL COOL THE COAST DOWN...ESPECIALLY THE MID
COAST.

DECENT MID-LVL WAA MOVES THROUGH MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING...AND
SHOULD PRODUCE A PERIOD OF RAIN OR SOME CONVECTIVE SHOWERS DURING
THIS TIMEFRAME. TDS RISE QUICKLY BEHIND THIS WARM FRONT SHOOTING
UP INTO THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S. WED-FRI WILL BE WARM AND
HUMID...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY RUNNING 80-85 INLAND...AND IN THE 70S
ON THE COAST. SOME WAVES WILL INEVITABLY MOVE OVER THE TOP OF THE
RIDGE...SO THERE WILL BE THE THREAT OF SHRA/TSRA...BUT TIMING
THIS FAR OUT IS A GUESS AT BEST.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THRU SAT. COLD FRONT CROSSING
THE FORECAST AREA WILL KICK OFF SCATTERED SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS INTERIOR WRN ME. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS MAY CONTAIN SOME
THUNDER...THOUGH THE PROBABILITY IS LOW. AT ALL TERMINALS NW WIND
GUSTS TO 25 KTS ARE POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT. GUSTY WINDS
CONTINUE AGAIN SAT.

LONG TERM...VFR EXPECTED SAT NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED MON NIGHT INTO AT LEAST TUE MORNING IS
SHRA AND LOW CLOUDS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS TODAY...WITH STRONG
CAA TO FOLLOW BEHIND IT. WINDS WILL GUST ABOVE 25 KTS LATE TONIGHT
INTO SAT MORNING. SEAS WILL BUILD TO NEAR 5 FT ON THE OUTER WATERS
BEFORE SLOWLY DIMINISHING SAT.

LONG TERM...WEST WINDS SUNDAY SHIFT TO SW ON MONDAY...AND WILL
GUST TO AROUND 20 KT BOTH DAYS BUT ARE EXPECTED TO BE SUB-SCA
LVLS. IN GENERAL WINDS WILL REMAIN BLO SCA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. SOME SEAS WELL OFFSHORE COULD REACH 5 FT LATE MON AND
TUE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY AIR MASS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TODAY. COOLER TEMPERATURES
WILL KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES GENERALLY AROUND 25 PERCENT.
LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITIES MAY BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST...WHERE
TEMPERATURES MAY CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 70S. AS COLD FRONT CROSSES
THE AREA WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY FROM THE WEST NORTHWEST. AIR
MASS WILL BECOME WINDIER AND DRIER ON SATURDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FREEZE WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     MEZ007>009-012-013.
NH...FREEZE WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     NHZ001>009-011.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LEGRO
SHORT TERM...LEGRO
LONG TERM...CEMPA
AVIATION...CEMPA/LEGRO
MARINE...CEMPA/LEGRO
FIRE WEATHER...LEGRO




000
FXUS61 KGYX 220746
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
346 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS NEW ENGLAND TODAY...SETTING OFF A FEW
SHOWERS ANS THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY...AND
CROSS THE AREAS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY....PROVIDING ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. WARM AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
A SEASONABLY STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY...USHERING IN SOME VERY CHILLY AIR. PRIOR TO ITS ARRIVAL
AREAS E OF THE MTNS SHOULD WARM SUFFICIENTLY TO PROVIDE A LITTLE
BIT OF FUEL FOR SHOWERS TO POP UP ALONG THE FRONT.

MESOSCALE GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THAT A BAND OR
CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP QUICKLY ALONG THE MTNS AND RACE
EWD TOWARDS THE COAST...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WRN ME. FARTHER S AND
W...THE AIR MASS WILL BE QUITE DRY AND SOUNDINGS SUGGEST IT WILL
BE DIFFICULT TO SATURATE ENOUGH FOR PCPN. DEEPER MOIST LAYERS WILL
RESIDE ACROSS WRN ME...AND WILL SUPPORT LIKELY POP FOR PARTS OF
THE MIDCOAST. LOW FREEZING LEVELS WILL ALSO SUPPORT PLENTY OF ICE
IN THE CLOUDS...AND CANNOT RULE OUT SOME THUNDER OR SMALL
HAIL/GRAUPEL. STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL RESIDE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER
THANKS TO THE DRY AIR MASS...SO SOME OF THESE SHOWERS/TSTMS MAY BE
GUSTY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING H8 TEMPS BETWEEN -4 AND -8 C
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS IS NEARLY A 3 SIGMA DEPARTURE FROM
NORMAL...AND MODEL GUIDANCE HAS EVEN COOLED A LITTLE FROM LAST
NIGHT. SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY SUGGESTS THIS COLD SHOT WILL FALL WELL
WITHIN THE LOWEST 10 PERCENT OF OBSERVATIONS FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. THIS ALL ADDS UP TO A LOW TEMP FORECAST AT LEAST AS COLD AS
WED NIGHT...AND PROBABLY A FEW DEGREES COOLER.

THAT BEING SAID...MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL REMAIN AT LEAST PARTIALLY MIXED AS CAA CONTINUES
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. MAV/MET GUIDANCE CAN OFTEN BE TOO AGGRESSIVE
IN DECOUPLING THE BOUNDARY LAYER...THUS FORECASTING MIN TEMPS TOO
COLD ESPECIALLY DOWNWIND OF THE MTNS. THE LATEST MAV FOR INSTANCE
BRINGS KHIE AND KBML DOWN TO THE UPPER TEENS. TO OFFSET THIS BIAS
I HAVE BLENDED IN SOME 2 M TEMPS FROM REGIONAL SCALE MODEL
GUIDANCE TO PROVIDE AN ELEMENT CAA MIXED LAYER. OVERALL THIS
LOWERED THE PREVIOUS FORECAST A DEGREE OR TWO. THE GRADIENT FLOW
MAY BE ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE FROST FOR MOST AREAS...BUT TEMPS
REGARDLESS LOOK TO FALL BELOW FREEZING FOR A LARGE PORTION OF THE
NRN FORECAST AREA. I EXPANDED THE FREEZE WATCH TO AREAS ON THE
BORDERLINE OF 32 DEGREES TO HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR A COLDER
FORECAST SOLUTION. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE IF RIDGING CAN MOVE IN
FASTER...ALLOWING THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO DECOUPLE. THIS WOULD MOST
LIKELY HAPPEN OVER WRN ZONES...SO THE MOST UNCERTAINTY IN THE
FORECAST LIES IN THOSE AREAS.

IT WILL BE A COOL AND BREEZY DAY SAT IN THE POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS.
WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON DEW POINT FORECASTS DURING THE DAY.
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN THE LOW TO MID 20S...WHILE BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
SHOW THE DEPTH OF MIXED LAYER HINTING AT REALITY BEING CLOSER TO
THE LOW TO MID TEENS. THIS WOULD BRING RH VALUES WELL BELOW 25
PERCENT...AND COUPLED WITH WINDS AND RECENT DRYNESS COULD CAUSE
SOME FIRE DANGER ISSUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
500MB PATTERN TRANSITIONS TO BLOCKY SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN NEXT WEEK
AS RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE ERN CONUS AND WRN ATLANTIC AND 500MB
JET RETREATS WELL POLEWARD. THIS WILL LEAD TO WARM AND MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS MOVING IN...WITH POTENTIAL FOR SCT TSRA AT TIMES AS WE
ARE ON THE SRN PERIPHERY OF IMPULSES MOVING BY IN THE STRONGER
500 MB TO OUR N.

SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE A SEASONABLY FAIR DAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
70S AND A DECENT WEST WIND WILL KEEP THE COOLER MARINE AIR MAINLY
OFFSHORE...EXCEPT MAYBE AT THE BEACHES. SUNDAY NIGHT LOOKS CLEAR
AND MORE MILD THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS WITH LOWS IN THE MID 40S N...TO
MID 50S S. DECENT WAA BEGINS TO DEVELOP TO OUR WEST ON
MONDAY...AND SHOULD CLOUDS OVERSPREAD WRN ZONES AT LEAST DURING
THE AFTERNOON...BUT THINKING ANY RAIN/SHOWERS WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL
MON NIGHT. THE SW FLOW SHOULD WARM TEMPS INLAND WELL INTO THE
MID-UPPER 70S...BUT WILL COOL THE COAST DOWN...ESPECIALLY THE MID
COAST.

DECENT MID-LVL WAA MOVES THROUGH MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING...AND
SHOULD PRODUCE A PERIOD OF RAIN OR SOME CONVECTIVE SHOWERS DURING
THIS TIMEFRAME. TDS RISE QUICKLY BEHIND THIS WARM FRONT SHOOTING
UP INTO THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S. WED-FRI WILL BE WARM AND
HUMID...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY RUNNING 80-85 INLAND...AND IN THE 70S
ON THE COAST. SOME WAVES WILL INEVITABLY MOVE OVER THE TOP OF THE
RIDGE...SO THERE WILL BE THE THREAT OF SHRA/TSRA...BUT TIMING
THIS FAR OUT IS A GUESS AT BEST.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THRU SAT. COLD FRONT CROSSING
THE FORECAST AREA WILL KICK OFF SCATTERED SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS INTERIOR WRN ME. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS MAY CONTAIN SOME
THUNDER...THOUGH THE PROBABILITY IS LOW. AT ALL TERMINALS NW WIND
GUSTS TO 25 KTS ARE POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT. GUSTY WINDS
CONTINUE AGAIN SAT.

LONG TERM...VFR EXPECTED SAT NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED MON NIGHT INTO AT LEAST TUE MORNING IS
SHRA AND LOW CLOUDS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS TODAY...WITH STRONG
CAA TO FOLLOW BEHIND IT. WINDS WILL GUST ABOVE 25 KTS LATE TONIGHT
INTO SAT MORNING. SEAS WILL BUILD TO NEAR 5 FT ON THE OUTER WATERS
BEFORE SLOWLY DIMINISHING SAT.

LONG TERM...WEST WINDS SUNDAY SHIFT TO SW ON MONDAY...AND WILL
GUST TO AROUND 20 KT BOTH DAYS BUT ARE EXPECTED TO BE SUB-SCA
LVLS. IN GENERAL WINDS WILL REMAIN BLO SCA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. SOME SEAS WELL OFFSHORE COULD REACH 5 FT LATE MON AND
TUE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY AIR MASS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TODAY. COOLER TEMPERATURES
WILL KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES GENERALLY AROUND 25 PERCENT.
LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITIES MAY BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST...WHERE
TEMPERATURES MAY CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 70S. AS COLD FRONT CROSSES
THE AREA WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY FROM THE WEST NORTHWEST. AIR
MASS WILL BECOME WINDIER AND DRIER ON SATURDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FREEZE WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     MEZ007>009-012-013.
NH...FREEZE WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     NHZ001>009-011.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LEGRO
SHORT TERM...LEGRO
LONG TERM...CEMPA
AVIATION...CEMPA/LEGRO
MARINE...CEMPA/LEGRO
FIRE WEATHER...LEGRO



000
FXUS61 KCAR 220522
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
122 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM QUEBEC OVERNIGHT AND MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION TODAY. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED INTO SATURDAY
AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS THE REGION FROM CANADA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
115 AM UPDATE: MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SKY PER THE LATEST IR SATL
IMAGERY SHOWING SOME BREAKS MOVING INTO NW MAINE. CLOUD DECK ATTM
MID LEVEL BUT IS EXPECTED TO LOWER LATER THIS MORNING. POPS WERE
ALSO ADJUSTED W/RADAR SHOWING SHOWERS MOVING N OF THE BORDER AND
SOME LIGHT RETURNS ACROSS OUR SW AREAS. HRLY TEMPERATURES WERE
ADJUSTED TO MATCH THE LATEST CONDITIONS. TEMPS WILL COOL A BIT
OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS BUT THEN SHOULD REBOUND AFTER 09Z.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN DRAPED JUST
TO OUR NORTHWEST TONIGHT. AFTER A FAIRLY DRY EVENING,
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE LATER TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES NORTHEAST UP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. THIS LOW WILL PASS JUST TO
OUR NORTH FRIDAY MORNING AND THEN MOVE EAST, DRAGGING THE COLD
FRONT ALONG IN ITS WAKE. THIS FRONT WILL SERVE AS THE FOCUS FOR
THE BULK OF THE EXPECTED PRECIPITATION TOMORROW; RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL MAINLY BE A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS. THERE WILL BE SOME
INSTABILITY AROUND TOMORROW AFTERNOON; MODEL SBCAPES ARE MAINLY
100- 200 J/KG. AS USUAL, THE NAM IS THE MOST ROBUST, GENERATING UP
TO 400 J/KG AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THIS IS LIKELY OVERDONE, SO
OUTSIDE OF A STRAY RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR TWO, DON`T EXPECT MUCH IN
THE WAY OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW. TONIGHT`S TEMPERATURES WILL
STAY IN THE 40S, WHILE HIGHS TOMORROW WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER THAN
TODAY, GIVEN THE COLDER AIR RUSHING IN BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE WILL
BE A SURFACE LOW OVER THE GASPE BAY PENINSULA...THE UPPER LOW
OVER CENTRAL QUEBEC...AND HIGHER PRESSURE RIDGE INTO SOUTHERN
MAINE. BY SAT MRNG THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE SE ACROSS NRN MAINE/NEW
BRUNSWICK. THEN EAST INTO THE GULF OF ST LAWRENCE. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH NRN MAINE SUN MRNG...HIGHER PRESSURE WILL
DOMINATE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

LOADED A BLEND OF NAM/GEM/GFS/ECMWF FOR HRLY T/PD/WND/POP/SKY
MAX/MIN LOADED NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS. ADDED 15 PERCENT TO WNDS FOR
GUSTS OVER LAND...30 PERCENT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. LOADED
HPCGUIDE FOR QPF...BLENDED GFS/ECMWF FOR LAST 2 PERIODS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A CORRIDOR OF DRY AIR BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE IN CENTRAL CANADA AND
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST WILL BRING A MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. A WEST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
OF AIR WILL DEVELOP AROUND THE ATLANTIC HIGH ON MONDAY BRINGING A
WARMER DAY ON MEMORIAL DAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 70 IN MOST PLACES
EXCEPT COOLER ALONG THE COAST. THE DAY WILL BEGIN PARTLY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY THEN CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE DOWNEAST AHEAD OF A WARM
FRONT LIFTING NORTH TOWARD THE AREA. THE WARM FRONT WILL PUSH INTO
THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS LIKELY AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
INTO QUEBEC. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A CLOUDY TO PARTLY SUNNY, WARM
AND HUMID DAY ON TUESDAY AS THE MOISTURE FROM THE FRONT PUSHES EAST
AND THE LOW MOVES THROUGH QUEBEC. WARM CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY AS A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
REMAINS TO OUR NORTH AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS CONTINUE. A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS MAY THEN INCREASE ON THURSDAY AS THE WEAK FRONT PUSHES DOWN
FROM THE NORTH AND MORE MOISTURE CIRCULATES IN AROUND THE ATLANTIC
HIGH.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST 15Z
FRIDAY, THOUGH CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
MOISTURE WILL STREAM NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THIS FRONT, RESULTING IN A
PERIOD OF STRATUS AROUND 2500 FT AT KBGR AND KBHB EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. MEANWHILE, SHOWERS WILL SPREAD SOUTHWARD AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR AFTER 18Z FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

SHORT TERM: GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ALL SITES...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AS SAT MRNG AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES THROUGH...AND
AGAIN SUN MRNG WHEN THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH NRN MAINE. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. CONDITIONS MAY
DROP TO MVFR AND THEN IFR MONDAY NIGHT AND BEGIN IFR ON TUESDAY
BEFORE IMPROVING TO VFR LATE.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: HEADLINES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH FRIDAY. WINDS
AND SEAS WILL BOTH APPROACH SMALL CRAFT LEVELS LATE TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING AS WINDS INCREASE OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. BUT AS THEY ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 25 KT AND 5 FT, IT
IS NOT EXPECTED THAT AN ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED.

SHORT TERM: AN SCA MAYBE REQUIRED SAT MRNG AS A TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS. AT THIS TIME
SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 4 TO 7 FT WITH WNDS GUSTING INTO
THE LOWER 30S. WINDS AND SEAS WILL SUBSIDE SAT EVNG...SEAS WILL
BUILD AGAIN TO AROUND 6 FT ON SUNDAY AND MAY REQUIRE AN SCA FOR
SEAS.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HEWITT




000
FXUS61 KCAR 220522
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
122 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM QUEBEC OVERNIGHT AND MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION TODAY. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED INTO SATURDAY
AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS THE REGION FROM CANADA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
115 AM UPDATE: MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SKY PER THE LATEST IR SATL
IMAGERY SHOWING SOME BREAKS MOVING INTO NW MAINE. CLOUD DECK ATTM
MID LEVEL BUT IS EXPECTED TO LOWER LATER THIS MORNING. POPS WERE
ALSO ADJUSTED W/RADAR SHOWING SHOWERS MOVING N OF THE BORDER AND
SOME LIGHT RETURNS ACROSS OUR SW AREAS. HRLY TEMPERATURES WERE
ADJUSTED TO MATCH THE LATEST CONDITIONS. TEMPS WILL COOL A BIT
OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS BUT THEN SHOULD REBOUND AFTER 09Z.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN DRAPED JUST
TO OUR NORTHWEST TONIGHT. AFTER A FAIRLY DRY EVENING,
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE LATER TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES NORTHEAST UP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. THIS LOW WILL PASS JUST TO
OUR NORTH FRIDAY MORNING AND THEN MOVE EAST, DRAGGING THE COLD
FRONT ALONG IN ITS WAKE. THIS FRONT WILL SERVE AS THE FOCUS FOR
THE BULK OF THE EXPECTED PRECIPITATION TOMORROW; RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL MAINLY BE A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS. THERE WILL BE SOME
INSTABILITY AROUND TOMORROW AFTERNOON; MODEL SBCAPES ARE MAINLY
100- 200 J/KG. AS USUAL, THE NAM IS THE MOST ROBUST, GENERATING UP
TO 400 J/KG AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THIS IS LIKELY OVERDONE, SO
OUTSIDE OF A STRAY RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR TWO, DON`T EXPECT MUCH IN
THE WAY OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW. TONIGHT`S TEMPERATURES WILL
STAY IN THE 40S, WHILE HIGHS TOMORROW WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER THAN
TODAY, GIVEN THE COLDER AIR RUSHING IN BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE WILL
BE A SURFACE LOW OVER THE GASPE BAY PENINSULA...THE UPPER LOW
OVER CENTRAL QUEBEC...AND HIGHER PRESSURE RIDGE INTO SOUTHERN
MAINE. BY SAT MRNG THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE SE ACROSS NRN MAINE/NEW
BRUNSWICK. THEN EAST INTO THE GULF OF ST LAWRENCE. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH NRN MAINE SUN MRNG...HIGHER PRESSURE WILL
DOMINATE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

LOADED A BLEND OF NAM/GEM/GFS/ECMWF FOR HRLY T/PD/WND/POP/SKY
MAX/MIN LOADED NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS. ADDED 15 PERCENT TO WNDS FOR
GUSTS OVER LAND...30 PERCENT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. LOADED
HPCGUIDE FOR QPF...BLENDED GFS/ECMWF FOR LAST 2 PERIODS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A CORRIDOR OF DRY AIR BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE IN CENTRAL CANADA AND
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST WILL BRING A MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. A WEST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
OF AIR WILL DEVELOP AROUND THE ATLANTIC HIGH ON MONDAY BRINGING A
WARMER DAY ON MEMORIAL DAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 70 IN MOST PLACES
EXCEPT COOLER ALONG THE COAST. THE DAY WILL BEGIN PARTLY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY THEN CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE DOWNEAST AHEAD OF A WARM
FRONT LIFTING NORTH TOWARD THE AREA. THE WARM FRONT WILL PUSH INTO
THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS LIKELY AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
INTO QUEBEC. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A CLOUDY TO PARTLY SUNNY, WARM
AND HUMID DAY ON TUESDAY AS THE MOISTURE FROM THE FRONT PUSHES EAST
AND THE LOW MOVES THROUGH QUEBEC. WARM CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY AS A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
REMAINS TO OUR NORTH AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS CONTINUE. A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS MAY THEN INCREASE ON THURSDAY AS THE WEAK FRONT PUSHES DOWN
FROM THE NORTH AND MORE MOISTURE CIRCULATES IN AROUND THE ATLANTIC
HIGH.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST 15Z
FRIDAY, THOUGH CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
MOISTURE WILL STREAM NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THIS FRONT, RESULTING IN A
PERIOD OF STRATUS AROUND 2500 FT AT KBGR AND KBHB EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. MEANWHILE, SHOWERS WILL SPREAD SOUTHWARD AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR AFTER 18Z FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

SHORT TERM: GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ALL SITES...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AS SAT MRNG AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES THROUGH...AND
AGAIN SUN MRNG WHEN THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH NRN MAINE. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. CONDITIONS MAY
DROP TO MVFR AND THEN IFR MONDAY NIGHT AND BEGIN IFR ON TUESDAY
BEFORE IMPROVING TO VFR LATE.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: HEADLINES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH FRIDAY. WINDS
AND SEAS WILL BOTH APPROACH SMALL CRAFT LEVELS LATE TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING AS WINDS INCREASE OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. BUT AS THEY ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 25 KT AND 5 FT, IT
IS NOT EXPECTED THAT AN ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED.

SHORT TERM: AN SCA MAYBE REQUIRED SAT MRNG AS A TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS. AT THIS TIME
SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 4 TO 7 FT WITH WNDS GUSTING INTO
THE LOWER 30S. WINDS AND SEAS WILL SUBSIDE SAT EVNG...SEAS WILL
BUILD AGAIN TO AROUND 6 FT ON SUNDAY AND MAY REQUIRE AN SCA FOR
SEAS.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HEWITT




000
FXUS61 KCAR 220522
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
122 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM QUEBEC OVERNIGHT AND MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION TODAY. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED INTO SATURDAY
AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS THE REGION FROM CANADA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
115 AM UPDATE: MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SKY PER THE LATEST IR SATL
IMAGERY SHOWING SOME BREAKS MOVING INTO NW MAINE. CLOUD DECK ATTM
MID LEVEL BUT IS EXPECTED TO LOWER LATER THIS MORNING. POPS WERE
ALSO ADJUSTED W/RADAR SHOWING SHOWERS MOVING N OF THE BORDER AND
SOME LIGHT RETURNS ACROSS OUR SW AREAS. HRLY TEMPERATURES WERE
ADJUSTED TO MATCH THE LATEST CONDITIONS. TEMPS WILL COOL A BIT
OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS BUT THEN SHOULD REBOUND AFTER 09Z.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN DRAPED JUST
TO OUR NORTHWEST TONIGHT. AFTER A FAIRLY DRY EVENING,
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE LATER TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES NORTHEAST UP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. THIS LOW WILL PASS JUST TO
OUR NORTH FRIDAY MORNING AND THEN MOVE EAST, DRAGGING THE COLD
FRONT ALONG IN ITS WAKE. THIS FRONT WILL SERVE AS THE FOCUS FOR
THE BULK OF THE EXPECTED PRECIPITATION TOMORROW; RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL MAINLY BE A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS. THERE WILL BE SOME
INSTABILITY AROUND TOMORROW AFTERNOON; MODEL SBCAPES ARE MAINLY
100- 200 J/KG. AS USUAL, THE NAM IS THE MOST ROBUST, GENERATING UP
TO 400 J/KG AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THIS IS LIKELY OVERDONE, SO
OUTSIDE OF A STRAY RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR TWO, DON`T EXPECT MUCH IN
THE WAY OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW. TONIGHT`S TEMPERATURES WILL
STAY IN THE 40S, WHILE HIGHS TOMORROW WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER THAN
TODAY, GIVEN THE COLDER AIR RUSHING IN BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE WILL
BE A SURFACE LOW OVER THE GASPE BAY PENINSULA...THE UPPER LOW
OVER CENTRAL QUEBEC...AND HIGHER PRESSURE RIDGE INTO SOUTHERN
MAINE. BY SAT MRNG THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE SE ACROSS NRN MAINE/NEW
BRUNSWICK. THEN EAST INTO THE GULF OF ST LAWRENCE. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH NRN MAINE SUN MRNG...HIGHER PRESSURE WILL
DOMINATE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

LOADED A BLEND OF NAM/GEM/GFS/ECMWF FOR HRLY T/PD/WND/POP/SKY
MAX/MIN LOADED NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS. ADDED 15 PERCENT TO WNDS FOR
GUSTS OVER LAND...30 PERCENT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. LOADED
HPCGUIDE FOR QPF...BLENDED GFS/ECMWF FOR LAST 2 PERIODS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A CORRIDOR OF DRY AIR BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE IN CENTRAL CANADA AND
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST WILL BRING A MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. A WEST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
OF AIR WILL DEVELOP AROUND THE ATLANTIC HIGH ON MONDAY BRINGING A
WARMER DAY ON MEMORIAL DAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 70 IN MOST PLACES
EXCEPT COOLER ALONG THE COAST. THE DAY WILL BEGIN PARTLY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY THEN CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE DOWNEAST AHEAD OF A WARM
FRONT LIFTING NORTH TOWARD THE AREA. THE WARM FRONT WILL PUSH INTO
THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS LIKELY AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
INTO QUEBEC. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A CLOUDY TO PARTLY SUNNY, WARM
AND HUMID DAY ON TUESDAY AS THE MOISTURE FROM THE FRONT PUSHES EAST
AND THE LOW MOVES THROUGH QUEBEC. WARM CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY AS A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
REMAINS TO OUR NORTH AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS CONTINUE. A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS MAY THEN INCREASE ON THURSDAY AS THE WEAK FRONT PUSHES DOWN
FROM THE NORTH AND MORE MOISTURE CIRCULATES IN AROUND THE ATLANTIC
HIGH.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST 15Z
FRIDAY, THOUGH CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
MOISTURE WILL STREAM NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THIS FRONT, RESULTING IN A
PERIOD OF STRATUS AROUND 2500 FT AT KBGR AND KBHB EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. MEANWHILE, SHOWERS WILL SPREAD SOUTHWARD AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR AFTER 18Z FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

SHORT TERM: GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ALL SITES...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AS SAT MRNG AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES THROUGH...AND
AGAIN SUN MRNG WHEN THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH NRN MAINE. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. CONDITIONS MAY
DROP TO MVFR AND THEN IFR MONDAY NIGHT AND BEGIN IFR ON TUESDAY
BEFORE IMPROVING TO VFR LATE.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: HEADLINES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH FRIDAY. WINDS
AND SEAS WILL BOTH APPROACH SMALL CRAFT LEVELS LATE TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING AS WINDS INCREASE OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. BUT AS THEY ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 25 KT AND 5 FT, IT
IS NOT EXPECTED THAT AN ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED.

SHORT TERM: AN SCA MAYBE REQUIRED SAT MRNG AS A TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS. AT THIS TIME
SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 4 TO 7 FT WITH WNDS GUSTING INTO
THE LOWER 30S. WINDS AND SEAS WILL SUBSIDE SAT EVNG...SEAS WILL
BUILD AGAIN TO AROUND 6 FT ON SUNDAY AND MAY REQUIRE AN SCA FOR
SEAS.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HEWITT




000
FXUS61 KCAR 220522
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
122 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM QUEBEC OVERNIGHT AND MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION TODAY. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED INTO SATURDAY
AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS THE REGION FROM CANADA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
115 AM UPDATE: MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SKY PER THE LATEST IR SATL
IMAGERY SHOWING SOME BREAKS MOVING INTO NW MAINE. CLOUD DECK ATTM
MID LEVEL BUT IS EXPECTED TO LOWER LATER THIS MORNING. POPS WERE
ALSO ADJUSTED W/RADAR SHOWING SHOWERS MOVING N OF THE BORDER AND
SOME LIGHT RETURNS ACROSS OUR SW AREAS. HRLY TEMPERATURES WERE
ADJUSTED TO MATCH THE LATEST CONDITIONS. TEMPS WILL COOL A BIT
OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS BUT THEN SHOULD REBOUND AFTER 09Z.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN DRAPED JUST
TO OUR NORTHWEST TONIGHT. AFTER A FAIRLY DRY EVENING,
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE LATER TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES NORTHEAST UP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. THIS LOW WILL PASS JUST TO
OUR NORTH FRIDAY MORNING AND THEN MOVE EAST, DRAGGING THE COLD
FRONT ALONG IN ITS WAKE. THIS FRONT WILL SERVE AS THE FOCUS FOR
THE BULK OF THE EXPECTED PRECIPITATION TOMORROW; RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL MAINLY BE A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS. THERE WILL BE SOME
INSTABILITY AROUND TOMORROW AFTERNOON; MODEL SBCAPES ARE MAINLY
100- 200 J/KG. AS USUAL, THE NAM IS THE MOST ROBUST, GENERATING UP
TO 400 J/KG AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THIS IS LIKELY OVERDONE, SO
OUTSIDE OF A STRAY RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR TWO, DON`T EXPECT MUCH IN
THE WAY OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW. TONIGHT`S TEMPERATURES WILL
STAY IN THE 40S, WHILE HIGHS TOMORROW WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER THAN
TODAY, GIVEN THE COLDER AIR RUSHING IN BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE WILL
BE A SURFACE LOW OVER THE GASPE BAY PENINSULA...THE UPPER LOW
OVER CENTRAL QUEBEC...AND HIGHER PRESSURE RIDGE INTO SOUTHERN
MAINE. BY SAT MRNG THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE SE ACROSS NRN MAINE/NEW
BRUNSWICK. THEN EAST INTO THE GULF OF ST LAWRENCE. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH NRN MAINE SUN MRNG...HIGHER PRESSURE WILL
DOMINATE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

LOADED A BLEND OF NAM/GEM/GFS/ECMWF FOR HRLY T/PD/WND/POP/SKY
MAX/MIN LOADED NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS. ADDED 15 PERCENT TO WNDS FOR
GUSTS OVER LAND...30 PERCENT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. LOADED
HPCGUIDE FOR QPF...BLENDED GFS/ECMWF FOR LAST 2 PERIODS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A CORRIDOR OF DRY AIR BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE IN CENTRAL CANADA AND
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST WILL BRING A MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. A WEST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
OF AIR WILL DEVELOP AROUND THE ATLANTIC HIGH ON MONDAY BRINGING A
WARMER DAY ON MEMORIAL DAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 70 IN MOST PLACES
EXCEPT COOLER ALONG THE COAST. THE DAY WILL BEGIN PARTLY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY THEN CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE DOWNEAST AHEAD OF A WARM
FRONT LIFTING NORTH TOWARD THE AREA. THE WARM FRONT WILL PUSH INTO
THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS LIKELY AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
INTO QUEBEC. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A CLOUDY TO PARTLY SUNNY, WARM
AND HUMID DAY ON TUESDAY AS THE MOISTURE FROM THE FRONT PUSHES EAST
AND THE LOW MOVES THROUGH QUEBEC. WARM CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY AS A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
REMAINS TO OUR NORTH AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS CONTINUE. A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS MAY THEN INCREASE ON THURSDAY AS THE WEAK FRONT PUSHES DOWN
FROM THE NORTH AND MORE MOISTURE CIRCULATES IN AROUND THE ATLANTIC
HIGH.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST 15Z
FRIDAY, THOUGH CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
MOISTURE WILL STREAM NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THIS FRONT, RESULTING IN A
PERIOD OF STRATUS AROUND 2500 FT AT KBGR AND KBHB EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. MEANWHILE, SHOWERS WILL SPREAD SOUTHWARD AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR AFTER 18Z FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

SHORT TERM: GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ALL SITES...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AS SAT MRNG AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES THROUGH...AND
AGAIN SUN MRNG WHEN THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH NRN MAINE. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. CONDITIONS MAY
DROP TO MVFR AND THEN IFR MONDAY NIGHT AND BEGIN IFR ON TUESDAY
BEFORE IMPROVING TO VFR LATE.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: HEADLINES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH FRIDAY. WINDS
AND SEAS WILL BOTH APPROACH SMALL CRAFT LEVELS LATE TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING AS WINDS INCREASE OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. BUT AS THEY ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 25 KT AND 5 FT, IT
IS NOT EXPECTED THAT AN ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED.

SHORT TERM: AN SCA MAYBE REQUIRED SAT MRNG AS A TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS. AT THIS TIME
SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 4 TO 7 FT WITH WNDS GUSTING INTO
THE LOWER 30S. WINDS AND SEAS WILL SUBSIDE SAT EVNG...SEAS WILL
BUILD AGAIN TO AROUND 6 FT ON SUNDAY AND MAY REQUIRE AN SCA FOR
SEAS.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HEWITT




000
FXUS61 KCAR 220522
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
122 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM QUEBEC OVERNIGHT AND MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION TODAY. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED INTO SATURDAY
AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS THE REGION FROM CANADA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
115 AM UPDATE: MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SKY PER THE LATEST IR SATL
IMAGERY SHOWING SOME BREAKS MOVING INTO NW MAINE. CLOUD DECK ATTM
MID LEVEL BUT IS EXPECTED TO LOWER LATER THIS MORNING. POPS WERE
ALSO ADJUSTED W/RADAR SHOWING SHOWERS MOVING N OF THE BORDER AND
SOME LIGHT RETURNS ACROSS OUR SW AREAS. HRLY TEMPERATURES WERE
ADJUSTED TO MATCH THE LATEST CONDITIONS. TEMPS WILL COOL A BIT
OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS BUT THEN SHOULD REBOUND AFTER 09Z.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN DRAPED JUST
TO OUR NORTHWEST TONIGHT. AFTER A FAIRLY DRY EVENING,
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE LATER TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES NORTHEAST UP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. THIS LOW WILL PASS JUST TO
OUR NORTH FRIDAY MORNING AND THEN MOVE EAST, DRAGGING THE COLD
FRONT ALONG IN ITS WAKE. THIS FRONT WILL SERVE AS THE FOCUS FOR
THE BULK OF THE EXPECTED PRECIPITATION TOMORROW; RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL MAINLY BE A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS. THERE WILL BE SOME
INSTABILITY AROUND TOMORROW AFTERNOON; MODEL SBCAPES ARE MAINLY
100- 200 J/KG. AS USUAL, THE NAM IS THE MOST ROBUST, GENERATING UP
TO 400 J/KG AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THIS IS LIKELY OVERDONE, SO
OUTSIDE OF A STRAY RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR TWO, DON`T EXPECT MUCH IN
THE WAY OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW. TONIGHT`S TEMPERATURES WILL
STAY IN THE 40S, WHILE HIGHS TOMORROW WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER THAN
TODAY, GIVEN THE COLDER AIR RUSHING IN BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE WILL
BE A SURFACE LOW OVER THE GASPE BAY PENINSULA...THE UPPER LOW
OVER CENTRAL QUEBEC...AND HIGHER PRESSURE RIDGE INTO SOUTHERN
MAINE. BY SAT MRNG THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE SE ACROSS NRN MAINE/NEW
BRUNSWICK. THEN EAST INTO THE GULF OF ST LAWRENCE. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH NRN MAINE SUN MRNG...HIGHER PRESSURE WILL
DOMINATE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

LOADED A BLEND OF NAM/GEM/GFS/ECMWF FOR HRLY T/PD/WND/POP/SKY
MAX/MIN LOADED NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS. ADDED 15 PERCENT TO WNDS FOR
GUSTS OVER LAND...30 PERCENT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. LOADED
HPCGUIDE FOR QPF...BLENDED GFS/ECMWF FOR LAST 2 PERIODS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A CORRIDOR OF DRY AIR BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE IN CENTRAL CANADA AND
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST WILL BRING A MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. A WEST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
OF AIR WILL DEVELOP AROUND THE ATLANTIC HIGH ON MONDAY BRINGING A
WARMER DAY ON MEMORIAL DAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 70 IN MOST PLACES
EXCEPT COOLER ALONG THE COAST. THE DAY WILL BEGIN PARTLY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY THEN CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE DOWNEAST AHEAD OF A WARM
FRONT LIFTING NORTH TOWARD THE AREA. THE WARM FRONT WILL PUSH INTO
THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS LIKELY AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
INTO QUEBEC. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A CLOUDY TO PARTLY SUNNY, WARM
AND HUMID DAY ON TUESDAY AS THE MOISTURE FROM THE FRONT PUSHES EAST
AND THE LOW MOVES THROUGH QUEBEC. WARM CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY AS A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
REMAINS TO OUR NORTH AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS CONTINUE. A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS MAY THEN INCREASE ON THURSDAY AS THE WEAK FRONT PUSHES DOWN
FROM THE NORTH AND MORE MOISTURE CIRCULATES IN AROUND THE ATLANTIC
HIGH.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST 15Z
FRIDAY, THOUGH CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
MOISTURE WILL STREAM NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THIS FRONT, RESULTING IN A
PERIOD OF STRATUS AROUND 2500 FT AT KBGR AND KBHB EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. MEANWHILE, SHOWERS WILL SPREAD SOUTHWARD AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR AFTER 18Z FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

SHORT TERM: GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ALL SITES...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AS SAT MRNG AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES THROUGH...AND
AGAIN SUN MRNG WHEN THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH NRN MAINE. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. CONDITIONS MAY
DROP TO MVFR AND THEN IFR MONDAY NIGHT AND BEGIN IFR ON TUESDAY
BEFORE IMPROVING TO VFR LATE.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: HEADLINES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH FRIDAY. WINDS
AND SEAS WILL BOTH APPROACH SMALL CRAFT LEVELS LATE TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING AS WINDS INCREASE OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. BUT AS THEY ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 25 KT AND 5 FT, IT
IS NOT EXPECTED THAT AN ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED.

SHORT TERM: AN SCA MAYBE REQUIRED SAT MRNG AS A TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS. AT THIS TIME
SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 4 TO 7 FT WITH WNDS GUSTING INTO
THE LOWER 30S. WINDS AND SEAS WILL SUBSIDE SAT EVNG...SEAS WILL
BUILD AGAIN TO AROUND 6 FT ON SUNDAY AND MAY REQUIRE AN SCA FOR
SEAS.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HEWITT



000
FXUS61 KCAR 220522
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
122 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM QUEBEC OVERNIGHT AND MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION TODAY. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED INTO SATURDAY
AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS THE REGION FROM CANADA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
115 AM UPDATE: MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SKY PER THE LATEST IR SATL
IMAGERY SHOWING SOME BREAKS MOVING INTO NW MAINE. CLOUD DECK ATTM
MID LEVEL BUT IS EXPECTED TO LOWER LATER THIS MORNING. POPS WERE
ALSO ADJUSTED W/RADAR SHOWING SHOWERS MOVING N OF THE BORDER AND
SOME LIGHT RETURNS ACROSS OUR SW AREAS. HRLY TEMPERATURES WERE
ADJUSTED TO MATCH THE LATEST CONDITIONS. TEMPS WILL COOL A BIT
OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS BUT THEN SHOULD REBOUND AFTER 09Z.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN DRAPED JUST
TO OUR NORTHWEST TONIGHT. AFTER A FAIRLY DRY EVENING,
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE LATER TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES NORTHEAST UP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. THIS LOW WILL PASS JUST TO
OUR NORTH FRIDAY MORNING AND THEN MOVE EAST, DRAGGING THE COLD
FRONT ALONG IN ITS WAKE. THIS FRONT WILL SERVE AS THE FOCUS FOR
THE BULK OF THE EXPECTED PRECIPITATION TOMORROW; RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL MAINLY BE A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS. THERE WILL BE SOME
INSTABILITY AROUND TOMORROW AFTERNOON; MODEL SBCAPES ARE MAINLY
100- 200 J/KG. AS USUAL, THE NAM IS THE MOST ROBUST, GENERATING UP
TO 400 J/KG AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THIS IS LIKELY OVERDONE, SO
OUTSIDE OF A STRAY RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR TWO, DON`T EXPECT MUCH IN
THE WAY OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW. TONIGHT`S TEMPERATURES WILL
STAY IN THE 40S, WHILE HIGHS TOMORROW WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER THAN
TODAY, GIVEN THE COLDER AIR RUSHING IN BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE WILL
BE A SURFACE LOW OVER THE GASPE BAY PENINSULA...THE UPPER LOW
OVER CENTRAL QUEBEC...AND HIGHER PRESSURE RIDGE INTO SOUTHERN
MAINE. BY SAT MRNG THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE SE ACROSS NRN MAINE/NEW
BRUNSWICK. THEN EAST INTO THE GULF OF ST LAWRENCE. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH NRN MAINE SUN MRNG...HIGHER PRESSURE WILL
DOMINATE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

LOADED A BLEND OF NAM/GEM/GFS/ECMWF FOR HRLY T/PD/WND/POP/SKY
MAX/MIN LOADED NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS. ADDED 15 PERCENT TO WNDS FOR
GUSTS OVER LAND...30 PERCENT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. LOADED
HPCGUIDE FOR QPF...BLENDED GFS/ECMWF FOR LAST 2 PERIODS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A CORRIDOR OF DRY AIR BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE IN CENTRAL CANADA AND
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST WILL BRING A MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. A WEST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
OF AIR WILL DEVELOP AROUND THE ATLANTIC HIGH ON MONDAY BRINGING A
WARMER DAY ON MEMORIAL DAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 70 IN MOST PLACES
EXCEPT COOLER ALONG THE COAST. THE DAY WILL BEGIN PARTLY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY THEN CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE DOWNEAST AHEAD OF A WARM
FRONT LIFTING NORTH TOWARD THE AREA. THE WARM FRONT WILL PUSH INTO
THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS LIKELY AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
INTO QUEBEC. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A CLOUDY TO PARTLY SUNNY, WARM
AND HUMID DAY ON TUESDAY AS THE MOISTURE FROM THE FRONT PUSHES EAST
AND THE LOW MOVES THROUGH QUEBEC. WARM CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY AS A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
REMAINS TO OUR NORTH AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS CONTINUE. A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS MAY THEN INCREASE ON THURSDAY AS THE WEAK FRONT PUSHES DOWN
FROM THE NORTH AND MORE MOISTURE CIRCULATES IN AROUND THE ATLANTIC
HIGH.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST 15Z
FRIDAY, THOUGH CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
MOISTURE WILL STREAM NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THIS FRONT, RESULTING IN A
PERIOD OF STRATUS AROUND 2500 FT AT KBGR AND KBHB EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. MEANWHILE, SHOWERS WILL SPREAD SOUTHWARD AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR AFTER 18Z FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

SHORT TERM: GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ALL SITES...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AS SAT MRNG AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES THROUGH...AND
AGAIN SUN MRNG WHEN THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH NRN MAINE. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. CONDITIONS MAY
DROP TO MVFR AND THEN IFR MONDAY NIGHT AND BEGIN IFR ON TUESDAY
BEFORE IMPROVING TO VFR LATE.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: HEADLINES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH FRIDAY. WINDS
AND SEAS WILL BOTH APPROACH SMALL CRAFT LEVELS LATE TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING AS WINDS INCREASE OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. BUT AS THEY ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 25 KT AND 5 FT, IT
IS NOT EXPECTED THAT AN ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED.

SHORT TERM: AN SCA MAYBE REQUIRED SAT MRNG AS A TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS. AT THIS TIME
SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 4 TO 7 FT WITH WNDS GUSTING INTO
THE LOWER 30S. WINDS AND SEAS WILL SUBSIDE SAT EVNG...SEAS WILL
BUILD AGAIN TO AROUND 6 FT ON SUNDAY AND MAY REQUIRE AN SCA FOR
SEAS.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HEWITT




000
FXUS61 KCAR 220212
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1012 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM QUEBEC LATE TONIGHT AND MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAY WITH SHOWERS FOR THE REGION.
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED INTO SATURDAY AS AN UPPER LOW
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION FROM CANADA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
1000 PM UPDATE: ONLY MINOR CHGS TO FCST HRLY TEMPS INTO THE
LATE NGT. OTHERWISE...BASED ON LATEST IR SAT AND RADAR REF
TRENDS...NO CHGS NEEDED TO NOW TO NEAR TERM CLD CVR POP SHWR
CVRG FCST GRIDS ATTM.

ORGNL DISC: A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN DRAPED JUST TO OUR
NORTHWEST TONIGHT. AFTER A FAIRLY DRY EVENING, PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL INCREASE LATER TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
NORTHEAST UP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. THIS LOW WILL PASS JUST TO OUR
NORTH FRIDAY MORNING AND THEN MOVE EAST, DRAGGING THE COLD FRONT
ALONG IN ITS WAKE. THIS FRONT WILL SERVE AS THE FOCUS FOR THE BULK
OF THE EXPECTED PRECIPITATION TOMORROW; RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL
MAINLY BE A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS. THERE WILL BE SOME
INSTABILITY AROUND TOMORROW AFTERNOON; MODEL SBCAPES ARE MAINLY
100- 200 J/KG. AS USUAL, THE NAM IS THE MOST ROBUST, GENERATING UP
TO 400 J/KG AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THIS IS LIKELY OVERDONE, SO
OUTSIDE OF A STRAY RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR TWO, DON`T EXPECT MUCH IN
THE WAY OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW. TONIGHT`S TEMPERATURES WILL
STAY IN THE 40S, WHILE HIGHS TOMORROW WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER THAN
TODAY, GIVEN THE COLDER AIR RUSHING IN BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE WILL
BE A SURFACE LOW OVER THE GASPE BAY PENINSULA...THE UPPER LOW
OVER CENTRAL QUEBEC...AND HIGHER PRESSURE RIDGE INTO SOUTHERN
MAINE. BY SAT MRNG THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE SE ACROSS NRN MAINE/NEW
BRUNSWICK. THEN EAST INTO THE GULF OF ST LAWRENCE. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH NRN MAINE SUN MRNG...HIGHER PRESSURE WILL
DOMINATE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

LOADED A BLEND OF NAM/GEM/GFS/ECMWF FOR HRLY T/PD/WND/POP/SKY
MAX/MIN LOADED NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS. ADDED 15 PERCENT TO WNDS FOR
GUSTS OVER LAND...30 PERCENT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. LOADED
HPCGUIDE FOR QPF...BLENDED GFS/ECMWF FOR LAST 2 PERIODS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A CORRIDOR OF DRY AIR BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE IN CENTRAL CANADA AND
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST WILL BRING A MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. A WEST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
OF AIR WILL DEVELOP AROUND THE ATLANTIC HIGH ON MONDAY BRINGING A
WARMER DAY ON MEMORIAL DAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 70 IN MOST PLACES
EXCEPT COOLER ALONG THE COAST. THE DAY WILL BEGIN PARTLY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY THEN CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE DOWNEAST AHEAD OF A WARM
FRONT LIFTING NORTH TOWARD THE AREA. THE WARM FRONT WILL PUSH INTO
THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS LIKELY AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
INTO QUEBEC. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A CLOUDY TO PARTLY SUNNY, WARM
AND HUMID DAY ON TUESDAY AS THE MOISTURE FROM THE FRONT PUSHES EAST
AND THE LOW MOVES THROUGH QUEBEC. WARM CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY AS A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
REMAINS TO OUR NORTH AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS CONTINUE. A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS MAY THEN INCREASE ON THURSDAY AS THE WEAK FRONT PUSHES DOWN
FROM THE NORTH AND MORE MOISTURE CIRCULATES IN AROUND THE ATLANTIC
HIGH.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST 15Z
FRIDAY, THOUGH CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
MOISTURE WILL STREAM NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THIS FRONT, RESULTING IN A
PERIOD OF STRATUS AROUND 2500 FT AT KBGR AND KBHB EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. MEANWHILE, SHOWERS WILL SPREAD SOUTHWARD AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR AFTER 18Z FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

SHORT TERM: GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ALL SITES...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AS SAT MRNG AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES THROUGH...AND
AGAIN SUN MRNG WHEN THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH NRN MAINE. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. CONDITIONS MAY
DROP TO MVFR AND THEN IFR MONDAY NIGHT AND BEGIN IFR ON TUESDAY
BEFORE IMPROVING TO VFR LATE.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: HEADLINES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH FRIDAY. WINDS
AND SEAS WILL BOTH APPROACH SMALL CRAFT LEVELS LATE TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING AS WINDS INCREASE OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. BUT AS THEY ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 25 KT AND 5 FT, IT
IS NOT EXPECTED THAT AN ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED.

SHORT TERM: AN SCA MAYBE REQUIRED SAT MRNG AS A TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS. AT THIS TIME
SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 4 TO 7 FT WITH WNDS GUSTING INTO
THE LOWER 30S. WINDS AND SEAS WILL SUBSIDE SAT EVNG...SEAS WILL
BUILD AGAIN TO AROUND 6 FT ON SUNDAY AND MAY REQUIRE AN SCA FOR
SEAS.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...NORTON
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...VJN/NORTON
MARINE...VJN/NORTON



000
FXUS61 KCAR 220212
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1012 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM QUEBEC LATE TONIGHT AND MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAY WITH SHOWERS FOR THE REGION.
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED INTO SATURDAY AS AN UPPER LOW
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION FROM CANADA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
1000 PM UPDATE: ONLY MINOR CHGS TO FCST HRLY TEMPS INTO THE
LATE NGT. OTHERWISE...BASED ON LATEST IR SAT AND RADAR REF
TRENDS...NO CHGS NEEDED TO NOW TO NEAR TERM CLD CVR POP SHWR
CVRG FCST GRIDS ATTM.

ORGNL DISC: A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN DRAPED JUST TO OUR
NORTHWEST TONIGHT. AFTER A FAIRLY DRY EVENING, PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL INCREASE LATER TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
NORTHEAST UP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. THIS LOW WILL PASS JUST TO OUR
NORTH FRIDAY MORNING AND THEN MOVE EAST, DRAGGING THE COLD FRONT
ALONG IN ITS WAKE. THIS FRONT WILL SERVE AS THE FOCUS FOR THE BULK
OF THE EXPECTED PRECIPITATION TOMORROW; RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL
MAINLY BE A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS. THERE WILL BE SOME
INSTABILITY AROUND TOMORROW AFTERNOON; MODEL SBCAPES ARE MAINLY
100- 200 J/KG. AS USUAL, THE NAM IS THE MOST ROBUST, GENERATING UP
TO 400 J/KG AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THIS IS LIKELY OVERDONE, SO
OUTSIDE OF A STRAY RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR TWO, DON`T EXPECT MUCH IN
THE WAY OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW. TONIGHT`S TEMPERATURES WILL
STAY IN THE 40S, WHILE HIGHS TOMORROW WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER THAN
TODAY, GIVEN THE COLDER AIR RUSHING IN BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE WILL
BE A SURFACE LOW OVER THE GASPE BAY PENINSULA...THE UPPER LOW
OVER CENTRAL QUEBEC...AND HIGHER PRESSURE RIDGE INTO SOUTHERN
MAINE. BY SAT MRNG THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE SE ACROSS NRN MAINE/NEW
BRUNSWICK. THEN EAST INTO THE GULF OF ST LAWRENCE. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH NRN MAINE SUN MRNG...HIGHER PRESSURE WILL
DOMINATE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

LOADED A BLEND OF NAM/GEM/GFS/ECMWF FOR HRLY T/PD/WND/POP/SKY
MAX/MIN LOADED NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS. ADDED 15 PERCENT TO WNDS FOR
GUSTS OVER LAND...30 PERCENT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. LOADED
HPCGUIDE FOR QPF...BLENDED GFS/ECMWF FOR LAST 2 PERIODS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A CORRIDOR OF DRY AIR BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE IN CENTRAL CANADA AND
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST WILL BRING A MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. A WEST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
OF AIR WILL DEVELOP AROUND THE ATLANTIC HIGH ON MONDAY BRINGING A
WARMER DAY ON MEMORIAL DAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 70 IN MOST PLACES
EXCEPT COOLER ALONG THE COAST. THE DAY WILL BEGIN PARTLY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY THEN CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE DOWNEAST AHEAD OF A WARM
FRONT LIFTING NORTH TOWARD THE AREA. THE WARM FRONT WILL PUSH INTO
THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS LIKELY AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
INTO QUEBEC. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A CLOUDY TO PARTLY SUNNY, WARM
AND HUMID DAY ON TUESDAY AS THE MOISTURE FROM THE FRONT PUSHES EAST
AND THE LOW MOVES THROUGH QUEBEC. WARM CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY AS A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
REMAINS TO OUR NORTH AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS CONTINUE. A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS MAY THEN INCREASE ON THURSDAY AS THE WEAK FRONT PUSHES DOWN
FROM THE NORTH AND MORE MOISTURE CIRCULATES IN AROUND THE ATLANTIC
HIGH.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST 15Z
FRIDAY, THOUGH CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
MOISTURE WILL STREAM NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THIS FRONT, RESULTING IN A
PERIOD OF STRATUS AROUND 2500 FT AT KBGR AND KBHB EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. MEANWHILE, SHOWERS WILL SPREAD SOUTHWARD AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR AFTER 18Z FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

SHORT TERM: GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ALL SITES...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AS SAT MRNG AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES THROUGH...AND
AGAIN SUN MRNG WHEN THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH NRN MAINE. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. CONDITIONS MAY
DROP TO MVFR AND THEN IFR MONDAY NIGHT AND BEGIN IFR ON TUESDAY
BEFORE IMPROVING TO VFR LATE.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: HEADLINES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH FRIDAY. WINDS
AND SEAS WILL BOTH APPROACH SMALL CRAFT LEVELS LATE TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING AS WINDS INCREASE OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. BUT AS THEY ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 25 KT AND 5 FT, IT
IS NOT EXPECTED THAT AN ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED.

SHORT TERM: AN SCA MAYBE REQUIRED SAT MRNG AS A TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS. AT THIS TIME
SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 4 TO 7 FT WITH WNDS GUSTING INTO
THE LOWER 30S. WINDS AND SEAS WILL SUBSIDE SAT EVNG...SEAS WILL
BUILD AGAIN TO AROUND 6 FT ON SUNDAY AND MAY REQUIRE AN SCA FOR
SEAS.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...NORTON
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...VJN/NORTON
MARINE...VJN/NORTON



000
FXUS61 KCAR 220212
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1012 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM QUEBEC LATE TONIGHT AND MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAY WITH SHOWERS FOR THE REGION.
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED INTO SATURDAY AS AN UPPER LOW
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION FROM CANADA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
1000 PM UPDATE: ONLY MINOR CHGS TO FCST HRLY TEMPS INTO THE
LATE NGT. OTHERWISE...BASED ON LATEST IR SAT AND RADAR REF
TRENDS...NO CHGS NEEDED TO NOW TO NEAR TERM CLD CVR POP SHWR
CVRG FCST GRIDS ATTM.

ORGNL DISC: A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN DRAPED JUST TO OUR
NORTHWEST TONIGHT. AFTER A FAIRLY DRY EVENING, PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL INCREASE LATER TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
NORTHEAST UP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. THIS LOW WILL PASS JUST TO OUR
NORTH FRIDAY MORNING AND THEN MOVE EAST, DRAGGING THE COLD FRONT
ALONG IN ITS WAKE. THIS FRONT WILL SERVE AS THE FOCUS FOR THE BULK
OF THE EXPECTED PRECIPITATION TOMORROW; RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL
MAINLY BE A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS. THERE WILL BE SOME
INSTABILITY AROUND TOMORROW AFTERNOON; MODEL SBCAPES ARE MAINLY
100- 200 J/KG. AS USUAL, THE NAM IS THE MOST ROBUST, GENERATING UP
TO 400 J/KG AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THIS IS LIKELY OVERDONE, SO
OUTSIDE OF A STRAY RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR TWO, DON`T EXPECT MUCH IN
THE WAY OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW. TONIGHT`S TEMPERATURES WILL
STAY IN THE 40S, WHILE HIGHS TOMORROW WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER THAN
TODAY, GIVEN THE COLDER AIR RUSHING IN BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE WILL
BE A SURFACE LOW OVER THE GASPE BAY PENINSULA...THE UPPER LOW
OVER CENTRAL QUEBEC...AND HIGHER PRESSURE RIDGE INTO SOUTHERN
MAINE. BY SAT MRNG THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE SE ACROSS NRN MAINE/NEW
BRUNSWICK. THEN EAST INTO THE GULF OF ST LAWRENCE. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH NRN MAINE SUN MRNG...HIGHER PRESSURE WILL
DOMINATE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

LOADED A BLEND OF NAM/GEM/GFS/ECMWF FOR HRLY T/PD/WND/POP/SKY
MAX/MIN LOADED NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS. ADDED 15 PERCENT TO WNDS FOR
GUSTS OVER LAND...30 PERCENT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. LOADED
HPCGUIDE FOR QPF...BLENDED GFS/ECMWF FOR LAST 2 PERIODS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A CORRIDOR OF DRY AIR BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE IN CENTRAL CANADA AND
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST WILL BRING A MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. A WEST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
OF AIR WILL DEVELOP AROUND THE ATLANTIC HIGH ON MONDAY BRINGING A
WARMER DAY ON MEMORIAL DAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 70 IN MOST PLACES
EXCEPT COOLER ALONG THE COAST. THE DAY WILL BEGIN PARTLY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY THEN CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE DOWNEAST AHEAD OF A WARM
FRONT LIFTING NORTH TOWARD THE AREA. THE WARM FRONT WILL PUSH INTO
THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS LIKELY AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
INTO QUEBEC. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A CLOUDY TO PARTLY SUNNY, WARM
AND HUMID DAY ON TUESDAY AS THE MOISTURE FROM THE FRONT PUSHES EAST
AND THE LOW MOVES THROUGH QUEBEC. WARM CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY AS A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
REMAINS TO OUR NORTH AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS CONTINUE. A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS MAY THEN INCREASE ON THURSDAY AS THE WEAK FRONT PUSHES DOWN
FROM THE NORTH AND MORE MOISTURE CIRCULATES IN AROUND THE ATLANTIC
HIGH.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST 15Z
FRIDAY, THOUGH CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
MOISTURE WILL STREAM NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THIS FRONT, RESULTING IN A
PERIOD OF STRATUS AROUND 2500 FT AT KBGR AND KBHB EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. MEANWHILE, SHOWERS WILL SPREAD SOUTHWARD AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR AFTER 18Z FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

SHORT TERM: GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ALL SITES...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AS SAT MRNG AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES THROUGH...AND
AGAIN SUN MRNG WHEN THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH NRN MAINE. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. CONDITIONS MAY
DROP TO MVFR AND THEN IFR MONDAY NIGHT AND BEGIN IFR ON TUESDAY
BEFORE IMPROVING TO VFR LATE.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: HEADLINES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH FRIDAY. WINDS
AND SEAS WILL BOTH APPROACH SMALL CRAFT LEVELS LATE TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING AS WINDS INCREASE OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. BUT AS THEY ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 25 KT AND 5 FT, IT
IS NOT EXPECTED THAT AN ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED.

SHORT TERM: AN SCA MAYBE REQUIRED SAT MRNG AS A TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS. AT THIS TIME
SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 4 TO 7 FT WITH WNDS GUSTING INTO
THE LOWER 30S. WINDS AND SEAS WILL SUBSIDE SAT EVNG...SEAS WILL
BUILD AGAIN TO AROUND 6 FT ON SUNDAY AND MAY REQUIRE AN SCA FOR
SEAS.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...NORTON
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...VJN/NORTON
MARINE...VJN/NORTON



000
FXUS61 KCAR 220212
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1012 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM QUEBEC LATE TONIGHT AND MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAY WITH SHOWERS FOR THE REGION.
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED INTO SATURDAY AS AN UPPER LOW
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION FROM CANADA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
1000 PM UPDATE: ONLY MINOR CHGS TO FCST HRLY TEMPS INTO THE
LATE NGT. OTHERWISE...BASED ON LATEST IR SAT AND RADAR REF
TRENDS...NO CHGS NEEDED TO NOW TO NEAR TERM CLD CVR POP SHWR
CVRG FCST GRIDS ATTM.

ORGNL DISC: A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN DRAPED JUST TO OUR
NORTHWEST TONIGHT. AFTER A FAIRLY DRY EVENING, PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL INCREASE LATER TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
NORTHEAST UP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. THIS LOW WILL PASS JUST TO OUR
NORTH FRIDAY MORNING AND THEN MOVE EAST, DRAGGING THE COLD FRONT
ALONG IN ITS WAKE. THIS FRONT WILL SERVE AS THE FOCUS FOR THE BULK
OF THE EXPECTED PRECIPITATION TOMORROW; RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL
MAINLY BE A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS. THERE WILL BE SOME
INSTABILITY AROUND TOMORROW AFTERNOON; MODEL SBCAPES ARE MAINLY
100- 200 J/KG. AS USUAL, THE NAM IS THE MOST ROBUST, GENERATING UP
TO 400 J/KG AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THIS IS LIKELY OVERDONE, SO
OUTSIDE OF A STRAY RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR TWO, DON`T EXPECT MUCH IN
THE WAY OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW. TONIGHT`S TEMPERATURES WILL
STAY IN THE 40S, WHILE HIGHS TOMORROW WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER THAN
TODAY, GIVEN THE COLDER AIR RUSHING IN BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE WILL
BE A SURFACE LOW OVER THE GASPE BAY PENINSULA...THE UPPER LOW
OVER CENTRAL QUEBEC...AND HIGHER PRESSURE RIDGE INTO SOUTHERN
MAINE. BY SAT MRNG THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE SE ACROSS NRN MAINE/NEW
BRUNSWICK. THEN EAST INTO THE GULF OF ST LAWRENCE. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH NRN MAINE SUN MRNG...HIGHER PRESSURE WILL
DOMINATE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

LOADED A BLEND OF NAM/GEM/GFS/ECMWF FOR HRLY T/PD/WND/POP/SKY
MAX/MIN LOADED NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS. ADDED 15 PERCENT TO WNDS FOR
GUSTS OVER LAND...30 PERCENT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. LOADED
HPCGUIDE FOR QPF...BLENDED GFS/ECMWF FOR LAST 2 PERIODS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A CORRIDOR OF DRY AIR BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE IN CENTRAL CANADA AND
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST WILL BRING A MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. A WEST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
OF AIR WILL DEVELOP AROUND THE ATLANTIC HIGH ON MONDAY BRINGING A
WARMER DAY ON MEMORIAL DAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 70 IN MOST PLACES
EXCEPT COOLER ALONG THE COAST. THE DAY WILL BEGIN PARTLY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY THEN CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE DOWNEAST AHEAD OF A WARM
FRONT LIFTING NORTH TOWARD THE AREA. THE WARM FRONT WILL PUSH INTO
THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS LIKELY AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
INTO QUEBEC. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A CLOUDY TO PARTLY SUNNY, WARM
AND HUMID DAY ON TUESDAY AS THE MOISTURE FROM THE FRONT PUSHES EAST
AND THE LOW MOVES THROUGH QUEBEC. WARM CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY AS A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
REMAINS TO OUR NORTH AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS CONTINUE. A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS MAY THEN INCREASE ON THURSDAY AS THE WEAK FRONT PUSHES DOWN
FROM THE NORTH AND MORE MOISTURE CIRCULATES IN AROUND THE ATLANTIC
HIGH.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST 15Z
FRIDAY, THOUGH CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
MOISTURE WILL STREAM NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THIS FRONT, RESULTING IN A
PERIOD OF STRATUS AROUND 2500 FT AT KBGR AND KBHB EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. MEANWHILE, SHOWERS WILL SPREAD SOUTHWARD AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR AFTER 18Z FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

SHORT TERM: GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ALL SITES...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AS SAT MRNG AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES THROUGH...AND
AGAIN SUN MRNG WHEN THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH NRN MAINE. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. CONDITIONS MAY
DROP TO MVFR AND THEN IFR MONDAY NIGHT AND BEGIN IFR ON TUESDAY
BEFORE IMPROVING TO VFR LATE.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: HEADLINES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH FRIDAY. WINDS
AND SEAS WILL BOTH APPROACH SMALL CRAFT LEVELS LATE TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING AS WINDS INCREASE OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. BUT AS THEY ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 25 KT AND 5 FT, IT
IS NOT EXPECTED THAT AN ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED.

SHORT TERM: AN SCA MAYBE REQUIRED SAT MRNG AS A TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS. AT THIS TIME
SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 4 TO 7 FT WITH WNDS GUSTING INTO
THE LOWER 30S. WINDS AND SEAS WILL SUBSIDE SAT EVNG...SEAS WILL
BUILD AGAIN TO AROUND 6 FT ON SUNDAY AND MAY REQUIRE AN SCA FOR
SEAS.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...NORTON
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...VJN/NORTON
MARINE...VJN/NORTON



000
FXUS61 KGYX 212340
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
740 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS WELL TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY. A STALLED FRONT JUST TO OUR NORTH WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS
THE AREA O FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ALONG IT. HIGH PRESSURE
THEN BUILDS IN OVER THE WEEKEND. A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH NEW
ENGLAND ON MEMORIAL DAY...BEFORE CROSSING THE REGION TUESDAY. A
WARM SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL FOLLOW ON WEDNESDAY.

&&
23Z UPDATE...
SKIES HAVE CLEARED ACROSS SOUTHERN MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE WHILE
NORTHERN ZONES REMAIN PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY. EXPECT NORTHERN
AREAS TO REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH MIDNIGHT AS MORE CLOUDS HEAD
SOUTH AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. EXPECT CLOUDS TO BE ON
THE INCREASE IN SOUTHERN ZONES AS SYSTEM PASSING TO THE SOUTH
PUSHES MID LEVEL CLOUDS INTO SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND COLD FRONT
DROPPING SOUTH BRINGS MORE CLOUDS INTO THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT.
HAVE ADJUSTED SKY GRIDS TO REFLECT LATEST SAT TRENDS AND ASIDE
FROM A FEW TEMP TWEAKS NO OTHER CHANGES PLANNED ATTM.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AT 18Z...WE WERE SANDWICHED BETWEEN A STALLED EAST-WEST SURFACE
FRONT STRETCHING FROM THE ROOFTOP OF MAINE INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC
AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM VICINITY OF THE CAROLINA COAST. RADAR
SHOWED SOME LIGHT RETURN ACROSS FAR NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE INTO
WESTERN MAINE...SO A SPRINKLE CAN`T BE RULE OUT ACROSS THAT AREA
THROUGH EARLY EVENING. OTHERWISE...WE`LL REMAIN PARTLY CLOUDY
AND DRY ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ON FRIDAY...THE CAROLINA LOW PASSES OFFSHORE TO OUR SOUTH AND
EAST...WITH FORECAST AREA REMAINING OUTSIDE THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF
THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD. MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ALONG
THE INITIALLY STALLED BOUNDARY WILL HELP TO FINALLY DRIVE IT
SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA AS A COLD FRONT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDER. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 60 IN THE MOUNTAINS
TO AROUND 70 ELSEWHERE. THE COLD AIR WILL FLOOD INTO THE REGION
BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT WITH DRY COLD AIR...CLEARING
SKIES...AND DIMINISHING WIND BRINING THE PROSPECT OF FREEZING
TEMPERATURES OR FROST TO MANY INTERIOR SECTIONS AS WE BEGIN THE
MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. A FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VERY STRONG ANOMOLOUS UPPER LEVEL LOW FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR
MOVE EAST OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY MORNING. THIS OPENS THE DOOR
FOR WINDS TO BE ALIGNED AND MIXING THROUGH A DEEP LAYER. EXPECT
VERY GUSTY CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY...NOT A SAFE TIME TO BE
BOATING OVER VERY COLD WATER TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY
MORNING WILL BE SUFFICIENTLY COLD ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR A MIX OF
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS IN THE NORTH.

ON SUNDAY...ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL SLIP THROUGH NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...ALBEIT THIS SYSTEM WILL BE MUCH WEAKER THAN THE LAST
FRONT.

ON MEMORIAL DAY...A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
WEST. THIS SYSTEM WILL SPILL CLOUDS OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE AND
INTO ME/NH DURING THE DAY. THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
BE INITIALLY VERY DRY ON MEMORIAL DAY...SO ANY WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD HOLD OF UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT.

SUMMER TYPE WEATHER WILL DEVELOP ON TUESDAY AS THE WARM FRONT
CROSSES THE AREA AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BEGIN IN A STRONG
SOUTHWEST FLOW. THERE WILL BE SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY IN NORTHERN
AREAS DURING THE MIDWEEK TIME PERIOD. THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL BE IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...SCT MVFR FRI IN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
DEVELOPING NW SFC WND BEHIND A COLD FRONT WILL GUST TO 25 KT AFT
18Z FOLLOWING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THRU THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. GUSTY WNW FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE SAT...WITH GUSTS AROUND
30 KTS POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINALS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE AREA SUN...WITH WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS. WIDESPREAD VSBY OR
CIG RESTRICTIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME WITH THIS FEATURE.
A SHOWERY PATTERN WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN WINDS
AND SEAS SHOULD REACH SMALL CRAFT WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
FRIDAY EVENING.

LONG TERM...VERY GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE OUT OF THE WEST-
NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY WITH SPEEDS WELL INTO SCA
THRESHOLDS...POSSIBLY GUSTING TO GALES. WINDS WILL BACK TO THE
SOUTHWEST BUT CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY ON SUNDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
DIMINISH TUESDAY...BEFORE PICKING UP AGAIN WEDNESDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GOOD RELATIVE HUMIDITY RECOVERY TONIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH A COLD FRONT MAY OFFER SOME RELIEF
FROM THE DRY WEATHER ON FRIDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FREEZE WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     MEZ007>009-012-013.
NH...FREEZE WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     NHZ001>006.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KGYX 212340
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
740 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS WELL TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY. A STALLED FRONT JUST TO OUR NORTH WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS
THE AREA O FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ALONG IT. HIGH PRESSURE
THEN BUILDS IN OVER THE WEEKEND. A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH NEW
ENGLAND ON MEMORIAL DAY...BEFORE CROSSING THE REGION TUESDAY. A
WARM SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL FOLLOW ON WEDNESDAY.

&&
23Z UPDATE...
SKIES HAVE CLEARED ACROSS SOUTHERN MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE WHILE
NORTHERN ZONES REMAIN PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY. EXPECT NORTHERN
AREAS TO REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH MIDNIGHT AS MORE CLOUDS HEAD
SOUTH AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. EXPECT CLOUDS TO BE ON
THE INCREASE IN SOUTHERN ZONES AS SYSTEM PASSING TO THE SOUTH
PUSHES MID LEVEL CLOUDS INTO SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND COLD FRONT
DROPPING SOUTH BRINGS MORE CLOUDS INTO THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT.
HAVE ADJUSTED SKY GRIDS TO REFLECT LATEST SAT TRENDS AND ASIDE
FROM A FEW TEMP TWEAKS NO OTHER CHANGES PLANNED ATTM.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AT 18Z...WE WERE SANDWICHED BETWEEN A STALLED EAST-WEST SURFACE
FRONT STRETCHING FROM THE ROOFTOP OF MAINE INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC
AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM VICINITY OF THE CAROLINA COAST. RADAR
SHOWED SOME LIGHT RETURN ACROSS FAR NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE INTO
WESTERN MAINE...SO A SPRINKLE CAN`T BE RULE OUT ACROSS THAT AREA
THROUGH EARLY EVENING. OTHERWISE...WE`LL REMAIN PARTLY CLOUDY
AND DRY ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ON FRIDAY...THE CAROLINA LOW PASSES OFFSHORE TO OUR SOUTH AND
EAST...WITH FORECAST AREA REMAINING OUTSIDE THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF
THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD. MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ALONG
THE INITIALLY STALLED BOUNDARY WILL HELP TO FINALLY DRIVE IT
SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA AS A COLD FRONT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDER. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 60 IN THE MOUNTAINS
TO AROUND 70 ELSEWHERE. THE COLD AIR WILL FLOOD INTO THE REGION
BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT WITH DRY COLD AIR...CLEARING
SKIES...AND DIMINISHING WIND BRINING THE PROSPECT OF FREEZING
TEMPERATURES OR FROST TO MANY INTERIOR SECTIONS AS WE BEGIN THE
MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. A FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VERY STRONG ANOMOLOUS UPPER LEVEL LOW FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR
MOVE EAST OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY MORNING. THIS OPENS THE DOOR
FOR WINDS TO BE ALIGNED AND MIXING THROUGH A DEEP LAYER. EXPECT
VERY GUSTY CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY...NOT A SAFE TIME TO BE
BOATING OVER VERY COLD WATER TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY
MORNING WILL BE SUFFICIENTLY COLD ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR A MIX OF
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS IN THE NORTH.

ON SUNDAY...ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL SLIP THROUGH NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...ALBEIT THIS SYSTEM WILL BE MUCH WEAKER THAN THE LAST
FRONT.

ON MEMORIAL DAY...A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
WEST. THIS SYSTEM WILL SPILL CLOUDS OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE AND
INTO ME/NH DURING THE DAY. THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
BE INITIALLY VERY DRY ON MEMORIAL DAY...SO ANY WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD HOLD OF UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT.

SUMMER TYPE WEATHER WILL DEVELOP ON TUESDAY AS THE WARM FRONT
CROSSES THE AREA AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BEGIN IN A STRONG
SOUTHWEST FLOW. THERE WILL BE SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY IN NORTHERN
AREAS DURING THE MIDWEEK TIME PERIOD. THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL BE IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...SCT MVFR FRI IN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
DEVELOPING NW SFC WND BEHIND A COLD FRONT WILL GUST TO 25 KT AFT
18Z FOLLOWING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THRU THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. GUSTY WNW FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE SAT...WITH GUSTS AROUND
30 KTS POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINALS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE AREA SUN...WITH WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS. WIDESPREAD VSBY OR
CIG RESTRICTIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME WITH THIS FEATURE.
A SHOWERY PATTERN WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN WINDS
AND SEAS SHOULD REACH SMALL CRAFT WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
FRIDAY EVENING.

LONG TERM...VERY GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE OUT OF THE WEST-
NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY WITH SPEEDS WELL INTO SCA
THRESHOLDS...POSSIBLY GUSTING TO GALES. WINDS WILL BACK TO THE
SOUTHWEST BUT CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY ON SUNDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
DIMINISH TUESDAY...BEFORE PICKING UP AGAIN WEDNESDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GOOD RELATIVE HUMIDITY RECOVERY TONIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH A COLD FRONT MAY OFFER SOME RELIEF
FROM THE DRY WEATHER ON FRIDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FREEZE WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     MEZ007>009-012-013.
NH...FREEZE WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     NHZ001>006.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KCAR 212150
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
550 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM QUEBEC LATE TONIGHT AND MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAY WITH SHOWERS FOR THE REGION.
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED INTO SATURDAY AS AN UPPER LOW
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION FROM CANADA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
530 PM UPDATE: WE UPDATED HI TRRN...MSLY MAX TEMPS THRU THE FCST.
OTHERWISE...ONLY MINOR CHGS TO FCST HRLY TEMPS AND SKY CVR WERE
MADE INTO THE OVRNGT. BASED ON LATEST RADAR REF TRENDS...NO CHGS
NEEDED TO NOW TO NEAR TERM POP SHWR CVRG ATTM.

ORGNL DISC: A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN DRAPED JUST TO OUR
NORTHWEST TONIGHT. AFTER A FAIRLY DRY EVENING, PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL INCREASE LATER TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
NORTHEAST UP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. THIS LOW WILL PASS JUST TO OUR
NORTH FRIDAY MORNING AND THEN MOVE EAST, DRAGGING THE COLD FRONT
ALONG IN ITS WAKE. THIS FRONT WILL SERVE AS THE FOCUS FOR THE BULK
OF THE EXPECTED PRECIPITATION TOMORROW; RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL
MAINLY BE A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS. THERE WILL BE SOME
INSTABILITY AROUND TOMORROW AFTERNOON; MODEL SBCAPES ARE MAINLY
100- 200 J/KG. AS USUAL, THE NAM IS THE MOST ROBUST, GENERATING UP
TO 400 J/KG AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THIS IS LIKELY OVERDONE, SO
OUTSIDE OF A STRAY RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR TWO, DON`T EXPECT MUCH IN
THE WAY OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW. TONIGHT`S TEMPERATURES WILL
STAY IN THE 40S, WHILE HIGHS TOMORROW WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER THAN
TODAY, GIVEN THE COLDER AIR RUSHING IN BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE WILL
BE A SURFACE LOW OVER THE GASPE BAY PENINSULA...THE UPPER LOW
OVER CENTRAL QUEBEC...AND HIGHER PRESSURE RIDGE INTO SOUTHERN
MAINE. BY SAT MRNG THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE SE ACROSS NRN MAINE/NEW
BRUNSWICK. THEN EAST INTO THE GULF OF ST LAWRENCE. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH NRN MAINE SUN MRNG...HIGHER PRESSURE WILL
DOMINATE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

LOADED A BLEND OF NAM/GEM/GFS/ECMWF FOR HRLY T/PD/WND/POP/SKY
MAX/MIN LOADED NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS. ADDED 15 PERCENT TO WNDS FOR
GUSTS OVER LAND...30 PERCENT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. LOADED
HPCGUIDE FOR QPF...BLENDED GFS/ECMWF FOR LAST 2 PERIODS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A CORRIDOR OF DRY AIR BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE IN CENTRAL CANADA AND
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST WILL BRING A MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. A WEST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
OF AIR WILL DEVELOP AROUND THE ATLANTIC HIGH ON MONDAY BRINGING A
WARMER DAY ON MEMORIAL DAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 70 IN MOST PLACES
EXCEPT COOLER ALONG THE COAST. THE DAY WILL BEGIN PARTLY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY THEN CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE DOWNEAST AHEAD OF A WARM
FRONT LIFTING NORTH TOWARD THE AREA. THE WARM FRONT WILL PUSH INTO
THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS LIKELY AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
INTO QUEBEC. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A CLOUDY TO PARTLY SUNNY, WARM
AND HUMID DAY ON TUESDAY AS THE MOISTURE FROM THE FRONT PUSHES EAST
AND THE LOW MOVES THROUGH QUEBEC. WARM CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY AS A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
REMAINS TO OUR NORTH AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS CONTINUE. A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS MAY THEN INCREASE ON THURSDAY AS THE WEAK FRONT PUSHES DOWN
FROM THE NORTH AND MORE MOISTURE CIRCULATES IN AROUND THE ATLANTIC
HIGH.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST 15Z
FRIDAY, THOUGH CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
MOISTURE WILL STREAM NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THIS FRONT, RESULTING IN A
PERIOD OF STRATUS AROUND 2500 FT AT KBGR AND KBHB EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. MEANWHILE, SHOWERS WILL SPREAD SOUTHWARD AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR AFTER 18Z FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

SHORT TERM: GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ALL SITES...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AS SAT MRNG AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES THROUGH...AND
AGAIN SUN MRNG WHEN THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH NRN MAINE. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. CONDITIONS MAY
DROP TO MVFR AND THEN IFR MONDAY NIGHT AND BEGIN IFR ON TUESDAY
BEFORE IMPROVING TO VFR LATE.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: HEADLINES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH FRIDAY. WINDS
AND SEAS WILL BOTH APPROACH SMALL CRAFT LEVELS LATE TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING AS WINDS INCREASE OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. BUT AS THEY ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 25 KT AND 5 FT, IT
IS NOT EXPECTED THAT AN ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED.

SHORT TERM: AN SCA MAYBE REQUIRED SAT MRNG AS A TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS. AT THIS TIME
SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 4 TO 7 FT WITH WNDS GUSTING INTO
THE LOWER 30S. WINDS AND SEAS WILL SUBSIDE SAT EVNG...SEAS WILL
BUILD AGAIN TO AROUND 6 FT ON SUNDAY AND MAY REQUIRE AN SCA FOR
SEAS.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...NORTON
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...VJN/NORTON
MARINE...VJN/NORTON



000
FXUS61 KCAR 212150
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
550 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM QUEBEC LATE TONIGHT AND MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAY WITH SHOWERS FOR THE REGION.
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED INTO SATURDAY AS AN UPPER LOW
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION FROM CANADA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
530 PM UPDATE: WE UPDATED HI TRRN...MSLY MAX TEMPS THRU THE FCST.
OTHERWISE...ONLY MINOR CHGS TO FCST HRLY TEMPS AND SKY CVR WERE
MADE INTO THE OVRNGT. BASED ON LATEST RADAR REF TRENDS...NO CHGS
NEEDED TO NOW TO NEAR TERM POP SHWR CVRG ATTM.

ORGNL DISC: A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN DRAPED JUST TO OUR
NORTHWEST TONIGHT. AFTER A FAIRLY DRY EVENING, PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL INCREASE LATER TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
NORTHEAST UP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. THIS LOW WILL PASS JUST TO OUR
NORTH FRIDAY MORNING AND THEN MOVE EAST, DRAGGING THE COLD FRONT
ALONG IN ITS WAKE. THIS FRONT WILL SERVE AS THE FOCUS FOR THE BULK
OF THE EXPECTED PRECIPITATION TOMORROW; RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL
MAINLY BE A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS. THERE WILL BE SOME
INSTABILITY AROUND TOMORROW AFTERNOON; MODEL SBCAPES ARE MAINLY
100- 200 J/KG. AS USUAL, THE NAM IS THE MOST ROBUST, GENERATING UP
TO 400 J/KG AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THIS IS LIKELY OVERDONE, SO
OUTSIDE OF A STRAY RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR TWO, DON`T EXPECT MUCH IN
THE WAY OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW. TONIGHT`S TEMPERATURES WILL
STAY IN THE 40S, WHILE HIGHS TOMORROW WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER THAN
TODAY, GIVEN THE COLDER AIR RUSHING IN BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE WILL
BE A SURFACE LOW OVER THE GASPE BAY PENINSULA...THE UPPER LOW
OVER CENTRAL QUEBEC...AND HIGHER PRESSURE RIDGE INTO SOUTHERN
MAINE. BY SAT MRNG THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE SE ACROSS NRN MAINE/NEW
BRUNSWICK. THEN EAST INTO THE GULF OF ST LAWRENCE. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH NRN MAINE SUN MRNG...HIGHER PRESSURE WILL
DOMINATE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

LOADED A BLEND OF NAM/GEM/GFS/ECMWF FOR HRLY T/PD/WND/POP/SKY
MAX/MIN LOADED NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS. ADDED 15 PERCENT TO WNDS FOR
GUSTS OVER LAND...30 PERCENT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. LOADED
HPCGUIDE FOR QPF...BLENDED GFS/ECMWF FOR LAST 2 PERIODS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A CORRIDOR OF DRY AIR BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE IN CENTRAL CANADA AND
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST WILL BRING A MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. A WEST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
OF AIR WILL DEVELOP AROUND THE ATLANTIC HIGH ON MONDAY BRINGING A
WARMER DAY ON MEMORIAL DAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 70 IN MOST PLACES
EXCEPT COOLER ALONG THE COAST. THE DAY WILL BEGIN PARTLY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY THEN CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE DOWNEAST AHEAD OF A WARM
FRONT LIFTING NORTH TOWARD THE AREA. THE WARM FRONT WILL PUSH INTO
THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS LIKELY AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
INTO QUEBEC. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A CLOUDY TO PARTLY SUNNY, WARM
AND HUMID DAY ON TUESDAY AS THE MOISTURE FROM THE FRONT PUSHES EAST
AND THE LOW MOVES THROUGH QUEBEC. WARM CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY AS A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
REMAINS TO OUR NORTH AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS CONTINUE. A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS MAY THEN INCREASE ON THURSDAY AS THE WEAK FRONT PUSHES DOWN
FROM THE NORTH AND MORE MOISTURE CIRCULATES IN AROUND THE ATLANTIC
HIGH.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST 15Z
FRIDAY, THOUGH CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
MOISTURE WILL STREAM NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THIS FRONT, RESULTING IN A
PERIOD OF STRATUS AROUND 2500 FT AT KBGR AND KBHB EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. MEANWHILE, SHOWERS WILL SPREAD SOUTHWARD AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR AFTER 18Z FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

SHORT TERM: GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ALL SITES...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AS SAT MRNG AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES THROUGH...AND
AGAIN SUN MRNG WHEN THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH NRN MAINE. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. CONDITIONS MAY
DROP TO MVFR AND THEN IFR MONDAY NIGHT AND BEGIN IFR ON TUESDAY
BEFORE IMPROVING TO VFR LATE.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: HEADLINES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH FRIDAY. WINDS
AND SEAS WILL BOTH APPROACH SMALL CRAFT LEVELS LATE TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING AS WINDS INCREASE OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. BUT AS THEY ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 25 KT AND 5 FT, IT
IS NOT EXPECTED THAT AN ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED.

SHORT TERM: AN SCA MAYBE REQUIRED SAT MRNG AS A TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS. AT THIS TIME
SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 4 TO 7 FT WITH WNDS GUSTING INTO
THE LOWER 30S. WINDS AND SEAS WILL SUBSIDE SAT EVNG...SEAS WILL
BUILD AGAIN TO AROUND 6 FT ON SUNDAY AND MAY REQUIRE AN SCA FOR
SEAS.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...NORTON
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...VJN/NORTON
MARINE...VJN/NORTON




000
FXUS61 KCAR 212150
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
550 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM QUEBEC LATE TONIGHT AND MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAY WITH SHOWERS FOR THE REGION.
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED INTO SATURDAY AS AN UPPER LOW
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION FROM CANADA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
530 PM UPDATE: WE UPDATED HI TRRN...MSLY MAX TEMPS THRU THE FCST.
OTHERWISE...ONLY MINOR CHGS TO FCST HRLY TEMPS AND SKY CVR WERE
MADE INTO THE OVRNGT. BASED ON LATEST RADAR REF TRENDS...NO CHGS
NEEDED TO NOW TO NEAR TERM POP SHWR CVRG ATTM.

ORGNL DISC: A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN DRAPED JUST TO OUR
NORTHWEST TONIGHT. AFTER A FAIRLY DRY EVENING, PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL INCREASE LATER TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
NORTHEAST UP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. THIS LOW WILL PASS JUST TO OUR
NORTH FRIDAY MORNING AND THEN MOVE EAST, DRAGGING THE COLD FRONT
ALONG IN ITS WAKE. THIS FRONT WILL SERVE AS THE FOCUS FOR THE BULK
OF THE EXPECTED PRECIPITATION TOMORROW; RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL
MAINLY BE A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS. THERE WILL BE SOME
INSTABILITY AROUND TOMORROW AFTERNOON; MODEL SBCAPES ARE MAINLY
100- 200 J/KG. AS USUAL, THE NAM IS THE MOST ROBUST, GENERATING UP
TO 400 J/KG AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THIS IS LIKELY OVERDONE, SO
OUTSIDE OF A STRAY RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR TWO, DON`T EXPECT MUCH IN
THE WAY OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW. TONIGHT`S TEMPERATURES WILL
STAY IN THE 40S, WHILE HIGHS TOMORROW WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER THAN
TODAY, GIVEN THE COLDER AIR RUSHING IN BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE WILL
BE A SURFACE LOW OVER THE GASPE BAY PENINSULA...THE UPPER LOW
OVER CENTRAL QUEBEC...AND HIGHER PRESSURE RIDGE INTO SOUTHERN
MAINE. BY SAT MRNG THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE SE ACROSS NRN MAINE/NEW
BRUNSWICK. THEN EAST INTO THE GULF OF ST LAWRENCE. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH NRN MAINE SUN MRNG...HIGHER PRESSURE WILL
DOMINATE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

LOADED A BLEND OF NAM/GEM/GFS/ECMWF FOR HRLY T/PD/WND/POP/SKY
MAX/MIN LOADED NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS. ADDED 15 PERCENT TO WNDS FOR
GUSTS OVER LAND...30 PERCENT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. LOADED
HPCGUIDE FOR QPF...BLENDED GFS/ECMWF FOR LAST 2 PERIODS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A CORRIDOR OF DRY AIR BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE IN CENTRAL CANADA AND
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST WILL BRING A MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. A WEST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
OF AIR WILL DEVELOP AROUND THE ATLANTIC HIGH ON MONDAY BRINGING A
WARMER DAY ON MEMORIAL DAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 70 IN MOST PLACES
EXCEPT COOLER ALONG THE COAST. THE DAY WILL BEGIN PARTLY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY THEN CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE DOWNEAST AHEAD OF A WARM
FRONT LIFTING NORTH TOWARD THE AREA. THE WARM FRONT WILL PUSH INTO
THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS LIKELY AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
INTO QUEBEC. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A CLOUDY TO PARTLY SUNNY, WARM
AND HUMID DAY ON TUESDAY AS THE MOISTURE FROM THE FRONT PUSHES EAST
AND THE LOW MOVES THROUGH QUEBEC. WARM CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY AS A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
REMAINS TO OUR NORTH AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS CONTINUE. A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS MAY THEN INCREASE ON THURSDAY AS THE WEAK FRONT PUSHES DOWN
FROM THE NORTH AND MORE MOISTURE CIRCULATES IN AROUND THE ATLANTIC
HIGH.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST 15Z
FRIDAY, THOUGH CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
MOISTURE WILL STREAM NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THIS FRONT, RESULTING IN A
PERIOD OF STRATUS AROUND 2500 FT AT KBGR AND KBHB EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. MEANWHILE, SHOWERS WILL SPREAD SOUTHWARD AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR AFTER 18Z FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

SHORT TERM: GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ALL SITES...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AS SAT MRNG AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES THROUGH...AND
AGAIN SUN MRNG WHEN THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH NRN MAINE. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. CONDITIONS MAY
DROP TO MVFR AND THEN IFR MONDAY NIGHT AND BEGIN IFR ON TUESDAY
BEFORE IMPROVING TO VFR LATE.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: HEADLINES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH FRIDAY. WINDS
AND SEAS WILL BOTH APPROACH SMALL CRAFT LEVELS LATE TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING AS WINDS INCREASE OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. BUT AS THEY ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 25 KT AND 5 FT, IT
IS NOT EXPECTED THAT AN ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED.

SHORT TERM: AN SCA MAYBE REQUIRED SAT MRNG AS A TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS. AT THIS TIME
SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 4 TO 7 FT WITH WNDS GUSTING INTO
THE LOWER 30S. WINDS AND SEAS WILL SUBSIDE SAT EVNG...SEAS WILL
BUILD AGAIN TO AROUND 6 FT ON SUNDAY AND MAY REQUIRE AN SCA FOR
SEAS.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...NORTON
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...VJN/NORTON
MARINE...VJN/NORTON



000
FXUS61 KCAR 212150
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
550 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM QUEBEC LATE TONIGHT AND MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAY WITH SHOWERS FOR THE REGION.
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED INTO SATURDAY AS AN UPPER LOW
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION FROM CANADA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
530 PM UPDATE: WE UPDATED HI TRRN...MSLY MAX TEMPS THRU THE FCST.
OTHERWISE...ONLY MINOR CHGS TO FCST HRLY TEMPS AND SKY CVR WERE
MADE INTO THE OVRNGT. BASED ON LATEST RADAR REF TRENDS...NO CHGS
NEEDED TO NOW TO NEAR TERM POP SHWR CVRG ATTM.

ORGNL DISC: A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN DRAPED JUST TO OUR
NORTHWEST TONIGHT. AFTER A FAIRLY DRY EVENING, PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL INCREASE LATER TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
NORTHEAST UP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. THIS LOW WILL PASS JUST TO OUR
NORTH FRIDAY MORNING AND THEN MOVE EAST, DRAGGING THE COLD FRONT
ALONG IN ITS WAKE. THIS FRONT WILL SERVE AS THE FOCUS FOR THE BULK
OF THE EXPECTED PRECIPITATION TOMORROW; RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL
MAINLY BE A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS. THERE WILL BE SOME
INSTABILITY AROUND TOMORROW AFTERNOON; MODEL SBCAPES ARE MAINLY
100- 200 J/KG. AS USUAL, THE NAM IS THE MOST ROBUST, GENERATING UP
TO 400 J/KG AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THIS IS LIKELY OVERDONE, SO
OUTSIDE OF A STRAY RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR TWO, DON`T EXPECT MUCH IN
THE WAY OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW. TONIGHT`S TEMPERATURES WILL
STAY IN THE 40S, WHILE HIGHS TOMORROW WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER THAN
TODAY, GIVEN THE COLDER AIR RUSHING IN BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE WILL
BE A SURFACE LOW OVER THE GASPE BAY PENINSULA...THE UPPER LOW
OVER CENTRAL QUEBEC...AND HIGHER PRESSURE RIDGE INTO SOUTHERN
MAINE. BY SAT MRNG THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE SE ACROSS NRN MAINE/NEW
BRUNSWICK. THEN EAST INTO THE GULF OF ST LAWRENCE. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH NRN MAINE SUN MRNG...HIGHER PRESSURE WILL
DOMINATE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

LOADED A BLEND OF NAM/GEM/GFS/ECMWF FOR HRLY T/PD/WND/POP/SKY
MAX/MIN LOADED NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS. ADDED 15 PERCENT TO WNDS FOR
GUSTS OVER LAND...30 PERCENT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. LOADED
HPCGUIDE FOR QPF...BLENDED GFS/ECMWF FOR LAST 2 PERIODS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A CORRIDOR OF DRY AIR BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE IN CENTRAL CANADA AND
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST WILL BRING A MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. A WEST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
OF AIR WILL DEVELOP AROUND THE ATLANTIC HIGH ON MONDAY BRINGING A
WARMER DAY ON MEMORIAL DAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 70 IN MOST PLACES
EXCEPT COOLER ALONG THE COAST. THE DAY WILL BEGIN PARTLY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY THEN CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE DOWNEAST AHEAD OF A WARM
FRONT LIFTING NORTH TOWARD THE AREA. THE WARM FRONT WILL PUSH INTO
THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS LIKELY AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
INTO QUEBEC. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A CLOUDY TO PARTLY SUNNY, WARM
AND HUMID DAY ON TUESDAY AS THE MOISTURE FROM THE FRONT PUSHES EAST
AND THE LOW MOVES THROUGH QUEBEC. WARM CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY AS A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
REMAINS TO OUR NORTH AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS CONTINUE. A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS MAY THEN INCREASE ON THURSDAY AS THE WEAK FRONT PUSHES DOWN
FROM THE NORTH AND MORE MOISTURE CIRCULATES IN AROUND THE ATLANTIC
HIGH.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST 15Z
FRIDAY, THOUGH CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
MOISTURE WILL STREAM NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THIS FRONT, RESULTING IN A
PERIOD OF STRATUS AROUND 2500 FT AT KBGR AND KBHB EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. MEANWHILE, SHOWERS WILL SPREAD SOUTHWARD AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR AFTER 18Z FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

SHORT TERM: GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ALL SITES...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AS SAT MRNG AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES THROUGH...AND
AGAIN SUN MRNG WHEN THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH NRN MAINE. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. CONDITIONS MAY
DROP TO MVFR AND THEN IFR MONDAY NIGHT AND BEGIN IFR ON TUESDAY
BEFORE IMPROVING TO VFR LATE.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: HEADLINES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH FRIDAY. WINDS
AND SEAS WILL BOTH APPROACH SMALL CRAFT LEVELS LATE TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING AS WINDS INCREASE OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. BUT AS THEY ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 25 KT AND 5 FT, IT
IS NOT EXPECTED THAT AN ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED.

SHORT TERM: AN SCA MAYBE REQUIRED SAT MRNG AS A TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS. AT THIS TIME
SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 4 TO 7 FT WITH WNDS GUSTING INTO
THE LOWER 30S. WINDS AND SEAS WILL SUBSIDE SAT EVNG...SEAS WILL
BUILD AGAIN TO AROUND 6 FT ON SUNDAY AND MAY REQUIRE AN SCA FOR
SEAS.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...NORTON
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...VJN/NORTON
MARINE...VJN/NORTON




000
FXUS61 KGYX 211843
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
243 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS WELL TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY. A STALLED FRONT JUST TO OUR NORTH WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS
THE AREA O FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ALONG IT. HIGH PRESSURE
THEN BUILDS IN OVER THE WEEKEND. A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH NEW
ENGLAND ON MEMORIAL DAY...BEFORE CROSSING THE REGION TUESDAY. A
WARM SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL FOLLOW ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AT 18Z...WE WERE SANDWICHED BETWEEN A STALLED EAST-WEST SURFACE
FRONT STRETCHING FROM THE ROOFTOP OF MAINE INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC
AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM VICINITY OF THE CAROLINA COAST. RADAR
SHOWED SOME LIGHT RETURN ACROSS FAR NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE INTO
WESTERN MAINE...SO A SPRINKLE CAN`T BE RULE OUT ACROSS THAT AREA
THROUGH EARLY EVENING. OTHERWISE...WE`LL REMAIN PARTLY CLOUDY
AND DRY ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ON FRIDAY...THE CAROLINA LOW PASSES OFFSHORE TO OUR SOUTH AND
EAST...WITH FORECAST AREA REMAINING OUTSIDE THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF
THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD. MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ALONG
THE INITIALLY STALLED BOUNDARY WILL HELP TO FINALLY DRIVE IT
SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA AS A COLD FRONT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDER. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 60 IN THE MOUNTAINS
TO AROUND 70 ELSEWHERE. THE COLD AIR WILL FLOOD INTO THE REGION
BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT WITH DRY COLD AIR...CLEARING
SKIES...AND DIMINISHING WIND BRINING THE PROSPECT OF FREEZING
TEMPERATURES OR FROST TO MANY INTERIOR SECTIONS AS WE BEGIN THE
MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. A FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VERY STRONG ANOMOLOUS UPPER LEVEL LOW FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR
MOVE EAST OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY MORNING. THIS OPENS THE DOOR
FOR WINDS TO BE ALIGNED AND MIXING THROUGH A DEEP LAYER. EXPECT
VERY GUSTY CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY...NOT A SAFE TIME TO BE
BOATING OVER VERY COLD WATER TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY
MORNING WILL BE SUFFICIENTLY COLD ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR A MIX OF
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS IN THE NORTH.

ON SUNDAY...ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL SLIP THROUGH NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...ALBEIT THIS SYSTEM WILL BE MUCH WEAKER THAN THE LAST
FRONT.

ON MEMORIAL DAY...A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
WEST. THIS SYSTEM WILL SPILL CLOUDS OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE AND
INTO ME/NH DURING THE DAY. THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
BE INITIALLY VERY DRY ON MEMORIAL DAY...SO ANY WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD HOLD OF UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT.

SUMMER TYPE WEATHER WILL DEVELOP ON TUESDAY AS THE WARM FRONT
CROSSES THE AREA AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BEGIN IN A STRONG
SOUTHWEST FLOW. THERE WILL BE SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY IN NORTHERN
AREAS DURING THE MIDWEEK TIME PERIOD. THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL BE IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...SCT MVFR FRI IN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
DEVELOPING NW SFC WND BEHIND A COLD FRONT WILL GUST TO 25 KT AFT
18Z FOLLOWING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THRU THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. GUSTY WNW FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE SAT...WITH GUSTS AROUND
30 KTS POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINALS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE AREA SUN...WITH WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS. WIDESPREAD VSBY OR
CIG RESTRICTIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME WITH THIS FEATURE.
A SHOWERY PATTERN WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN WINDS
AND SEAS SHOULD REACH SMALL CRAFT WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
FRIDAY EVENING.

LONG TERM...VERY GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE OUT OF THE WEST-
NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY WITH SPEEDS WELL INTO SCA
THRESHOLDS...POSSIBLY GUSTING TO GALES. WINDS WILL BACK TO THE
SOUTHWEST BUT CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY ON SUNDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
DIMINISH TUESDAY...BEFORE PICKING UP AGAIN WEDNESDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GOOD RELATIVE HUMIDITY RECOVERY TONIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH A COLD FRONT MAY OFFER SOME RELIEF
FROM THE DRY WEATHER ON FRIDAY.


&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FREEZE WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     MEZ007>009-012-013.
NH...FREEZE WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     NHZ001>006.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SCHWIBS/CANNON



000
FXUS61 KGYX 211843
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
243 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS WELL TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY. A STALLED FRONT JUST TO OUR NORTH WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS
THE AREA O FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ALONG IT. HIGH PRESSURE
THEN BUILDS IN OVER THE WEEKEND. A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH NEW
ENGLAND ON MEMORIAL DAY...BEFORE CROSSING THE REGION TUESDAY. A
WARM SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL FOLLOW ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AT 18Z...WE WERE SANDWICHED BETWEEN A STALLED EAST-WEST SURFACE
FRONT STRETCHING FROM THE ROOFTOP OF MAINE INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC
AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM VICINITY OF THE CAROLINA COAST. RADAR
SHOWED SOME LIGHT RETURN ACROSS FAR NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE INTO
WESTERN MAINE...SO A SPRINKLE CAN`T BE RULE OUT ACROSS THAT AREA
THROUGH EARLY EVENING. OTHERWISE...WE`LL REMAIN PARTLY CLOUDY
AND DRY ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ON FRIDAY...THE CAROLINA LOW PASSES OFFSHORE TO OUR SOUTH AND
EAST...WITH FORECAST AREA REMAINING OUTSIDE THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF
THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD. MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ALONG
THE INITIALLY STALLED BOUNDARY WILL HELP TO FINALLY DRIVE IT
SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA AS A COLD FRONT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDER. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 60 IN THE MOUNTAINS
TO AROUND 70 ELSEWHERE. THE COLD AIR WILL FLOOD INTO THE REGION
BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT WITH DRY COLD AIR...CLEARING
SKIES...AND DIMINISHING WIND BRINING THE PROSPECT OF FREEZING
TEMPERATURES OR FROST TO MANY INTERIOR SECTIONS AS WE BEGIN THE
MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. A FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VERY STRONG ANOMOLOUS UPPER LEVEL LOW FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR
MOVE EAST OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY MORNING. THIS OPENS THE DOOR
FOR WINDS TO BE ALIGNED AND MIXING THROUGH A DEEP LAYER. EXPECT
VERY GUSTY CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY...NOT A SAFE TIME TO BE
BOATING OVER VERY COLD WATER TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY
MORNING WILL BE SUFFICIENTLY COLD ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR A MIX OF
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS IN THE NORTH.

ON SUNDAY...ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL SLIP THROUGH NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...ALBEIT THIS SYSTEM WILL BE MUCH WEAKER THAN THE LAST
FRONT.

ON MEMORIAL DAY...A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
WEST. THIS SYSTEM WILL SPILL CLOUDS OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE AND
INTO ME/NH DURING THE DAY. THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
BE INITIALLY VERY DRY ON MEMORIAL DAY...SO ANY WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD HOLD OF UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT.

SUMMER TYPE WEATHER WILL DEVELOP ON TUESDAY AS THE WARM FRONT
CROSSES THE AREA AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BEGIN IN A STRONG
SOUTHWEST FLOW. THERE WILL BE SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY IN NORTHERN
AREAS DURING THE MIDWEEK TIME PERIOD. THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL BE IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...SCT MVFR FRI IN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
DEVELOPING NW SFC WND BEHIND A COLD FRONT WILL GUST TO 25 KT AFT
18Z FOLLOWING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THRU THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. GUSTY WNW FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE SAT...WITH GUSTS AROUND
30 KTS POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINALS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE AREA SUN...WITH WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS. WIDESPREAD VSBY OR
CIG RESTRICTIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME WITH THIS FEATURE.
A SHOWERY PATTERN WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN WINDS
AND SEAS SHOULD REACH SMALL CRAFT WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
FRIDAY EVENING.

LONG TERM...VERY GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE OUT OF THE WEST-
NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY WITH SPEEDS WELL INTO SCA
THRESHOLDS...POSSIBLY GUSTING TO GALES. WINDS WILL BACK TO THE
SOUTHWEST BUT CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY ON SUNDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
DIMINISH TUESDAY...BEFORE PICKING UP AGAIN WEDNESDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GOOD RELATIVE HUMIDITY RECOVERY TONIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH A COLD FRONT MAY OFFER SOME RELIEF
FROM THE DRY WEATHER ON FRIDAY.


&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FREEZE WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     MEZ007>009-012-013.
NH...FREEZE WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     NHZ001>006.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SCHWIBS/CANNON




000
FXUS61 KGYX 211843
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
243 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS WELL TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY. A STALLED FRONT JUST TO OUR NORTH WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS
THE AREA O FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ALONG IT. HIGH PRESSURE
THEN BUILDS IN OVER THE WEEKEND. A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH NEW
ENGLAND ON MEMORIAL DAY...BEFORE CROSSING THE REGION TUESDAY. A
WARM SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL FOLLOW ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AT 18Z...WE WERE SANDWICHED BETWEEN A STALLED EAST-WEST SURFACE
FRONT STRETCHING FROM THE ROOFTOP OF MAINE INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC
AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM VICINITY OF THE CAROLINA COAST. RADAR
SHOWED SOME LIGHT RETURN ACROSS FAR NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE INTO
WESTERN MAINE...SO A SPRINKLE CAN`T BE RULE OUT ACROSS THAT AREA
THROUGH EARLY EVENING. OTHERWISE...WE`LL REMAIN PARTLY CLOUDY
AND DRY ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ON FRIDAY...THE CAROLINA LOW PASSES OFFSHORE TO OUR SOUTH AND
EAST...WITH FORECAST AREA REMAINING OUTSIDE THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF
THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD. MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ALONG
THE INITIALLY STALLED BOUNDARY WILL HELP TO FINALLY DRIVE IT
SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA AS A COLD FRONT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDER. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 60 IN THE MOUNTAINS
TO AROUND 70 ELSEWHERE. THE COLD AIR WILL FLOOD INTO THE REGION
BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT WITH DRY COLD AIR...CLEARING
SKIES...AND DIMINISHING WIND BRINING THE PROSPECT OF FREEZING
TEMPERATURES OR FROST TO MANY INTERIOR SECTIONS AS WE BEGIN THE
MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. A FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VERY STRONG ANOMOLOUS UPPER LEVEL LOW FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR
MOVE EAST OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY MORNING. THIS OPENS THE DOOR
FOR WINDS TO BE ALIGNED AND MIXING THROUGH A DEEP LAYER. EXPECT
VERY GUSTY CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY...NOT A SAFE TIME TO BE
BOATING OVER VERY COLD WATER TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY
MORNING WILL BE SUFFICIENTLY COLD ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR A MIX OF
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS IN THE NORTH.

ON SUNDAY...ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL SLIP THROUGH NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...ALBEIT THIS SYSTEM WILL BE MUCH WEAKER THAN THE LAST
FRONT.

ON MEMORIAL DAY...A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
WEST. THIS SYSTEM WILL SPILL CLOUDS OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE AND
INTO ME/NH DURING THE DAY. THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
BE INITIALLY VERY DRY ON MEMORIAL DAY...SO ANY WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD HOLD OF UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT.

SUMMER TYPE WEATHER WILL DEVELOP ON TUESDAY AS THE WARM FRONT
CROSSES THE AREA AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BEGIN IN A STRONG
SOUTHWEST FLOW. THERE WILL BE SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY IN NORTHERN
AREAS DURING THE MIDWEEK TIME PERIOD. THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL BE IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...SCT MVFR FRI IN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
DEVELOPING NW SFC WND BEHIND A COLD FRONT WILL GUST TO 25 KT AFT
18Z FOLLOWING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THRU THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. GUSTY WNW FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE SAT...WITH GUSTS AROUND
30 KTS POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINALS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE AREA SUN...WITH WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS. WIDESPREAD VSBY OR
CIG RESTRICTIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME WITH THIS FEATURE.
A SHOWERY PATTERN WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN WINDS
AND SEAS SHOULD REACH SMALL CRAFT WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
FRIDAY EVENING.

LONG TERM...VERY GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE OUT OF THE WEST-
NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY WITH SPEEDS WELL INTO SCA
THRESHOLDS...POSSIBLY GUSTING TO GALES. WINDS WILL BACK TO THE
SOUTHWEST BUT CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY ON SUNDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
DIMINISH TUESDAY...BEFORE PICKING UP AGAIN WEDNESDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GOOD RELATIVE HUMIDITY RECOVERY TONIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH A COLD FRONT MAY OFFER SOME RELIEF
FROM THE DRY WEATHER ON FRIDAY.


&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FREEZE WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     MEZ007>009-012-013.
NH...FREEZE WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     NHZ001>006.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SCHWIBS/CANNON



000
FXUS61 KGYX 211843
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
243 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS WELL TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY. A STALLED FRONT JUST TO OUR NORTH WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS
THE AREA O FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ALONG IT. HIGH PRESSURE
THEN BUILDS IN OVER THE WEEKEND. A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH NEW
ENGLAND ON MEMORIAL DAY...BEFORE CROSSING THE REGION TUESDAY. A
WARM SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL FOLLOW ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AT 18Z...WE WERE SANDWICHED BETWEEN A STALLED EAST-WEST SURFACE
FRONT STRETCHING FROM THE ROOFTOP OF MAINE INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC
AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM VICINITY OF THE CAROLINA COAST. RADAR
SHOWED SOME LIGHT RETURN ACROSS FAR NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE INTO
WESTERN MAINE...SO A SPRINKLE CAN`T BE RULE OUT ACROSS THAT AREA
THROUGH EARLY EVENING. OTHERWISE...WE`LL REMAIN PARTLY CLOUDY
AND DRY ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ON FRIDAY...THE CAROLINA LOW PASSES OFFSHORE TO OUR SOUTH AND
EAST...WITH FORECAST AREA REMAINING OUTSIDE THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF
THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD. MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ALONG
THE INITIALLY STALLED BOUNDARY WILL HELP TO FINALLY DRIVE IT
SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA AS A COLD FRONT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDER. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 60 IN THE MOUNTAINS
TO AROUND 70 ELSEWHERE. THE COLD AIR WILL FLOOD INTO THE REGION
BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT WITH DRY COLD AIR...CLEARING
SKIES...AND DIMINISHING WIND BRINING THE PROSPECT OF FREEZING
TEMPERATURES OR FROST TO MANY INTERIOR SECTIONS AS WE BEGIN THE
MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. A FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VERY STRONG ANOMOLOUS UPPER LEVEL LOW FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR
MOVE EAST OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY MORNING. THIS OPENS THE DOOR
FOR WINDS TO BE ALIGNED AND MIXING THROUGH A DEEP LAYER. EXPECT
VERY GUSTY CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY...NOT A SAFE TIME TO BE
BOATING OVER VERY COLD WATER TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY
MORNING WILL BE SUFFICIENTLY COLD ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR A MIX OF
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS IN THE NORTH.

ON SUNDAY...ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL SLIP THROUGH NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...ALBEIT THIS SYSTEM WILL BE MUCH WEAKER THAN THE LAST
FRONT.

ON MEMORIAL DAY...A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
WEST. THIS SYSTEM WILL SPILL CLOUDS OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE AND
INTO ME/NH DURING THE DAY. THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
BE INITIALLY VERY DRY ON MEMORIAL DAY...SO ANY WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD HOLD OF UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT.

SUMMER TYPE WEATHER WILL DEVELOP ON TUESDAY AS THE WARM FRONT
CROSSES THE AREA AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BEGIN IN A STRONG
SOUTHWEST FLOW. THERE WILL BE SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY IN NORTHERN
AREAS DURING THE MIDWEEK TIME PERIOD. THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL BE IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...SCT MVFR FRI IN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
DEVELOPING NW SFC WND BEHIND A COLD FRONT WILL GUST TO 25 KT AFT
18Z FOLLOWING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THRU THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. GUSTY WNW FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE SAT...WITH GUSTS AROUND
30 KTS POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINALS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE AREA SUN...WITH WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS. WIDESPREAD VSBY OR
CIG RESTRICTIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME WITH THIS FEATURE.
A SHOWERY PATTERN WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN WINDS
AND SEAS SHOULD REACH SMALL CRAFT WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
FRIDAY EVENING.

LONG TERM...VERY GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE OUT OF THE WEST-
NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY WITH SPEEDS WELL INTO SCA
THRESHOLDS...POSSIBLY GUSTING TO GALES. WINDS WILL BACK TO THE
SOUTHWEST BUT CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY ON SUNDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
DIMINISH TUESDAY...BEFORE PICKING UP AGAIN WEDNESDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GOOD RELATIVE HUMIDITY RECOVERY TONIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH A COLD FRONT MAY OFFER SOME RELIEF
FROM THE DRY WEATHER ON FRIDAY.


&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FREEZE WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     MEZ007>009-012-013.
NH...FREEZE WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     NHZ001>006.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SCHWIBS/CANNON




000
FXUS61 KCAR 211841
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
241 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM QUEBEC LATER TONIGHT AND MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION ON FRIDAY WITH SHOWERS FOR THE REGION. CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN UNSETTLED INTO SATURDAY AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION FROM CANADA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN DRAPED JUST TO OUR NORTHWEST
TONIGHT. AFTER A FAIRLY DRY EVENING, PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
INCREASE LATER TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST UP ALONG
THIS BOUNDARY. THIS LOW WILL PASS JUST TO OUR NORTH FRIDAY MORNING
AND THEN MOVE EAST, DRAGGING THE COLD FRONT ALONG IN ITS WAKE.
THIS FRONT WILL SERVE AS THE FOCUS FOR THE BULK OF THE EXPECTED
PRECIPITATION TOMORROW; RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL MAINLY BE A QUARTER
OF AN INCH OR LESS. THERE WILL BE SOME INSTABILITY AROUND TOMORROW
AFTERNOON; MODEL SBCAPES ARE MAINLY 100- 200 J/KG. AS USUAL, THE
NAM IS THE MOST ROBUST, GENERATING UP TO 400 J/KG AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. THIS IS LIKELY OVERDONE, SO OUTSIDE OF A STRAY RUMBLE OF
THUNDER OR TWO, DON`T EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS
TOMORROW. TONIGHT`S TEMPERATURES WILL STAY IN THE 40S, WHILE HIGHS
TOMORROW WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER THAN TODAY, GIVEN THE COLDER AIR
RUSHING IN BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE WILL
BE A SURFACE LOW OVER THE GASPE BAY PENINSULA...THE UPPER LOW
OVER CENTRAL QUEBEC...AND HIGHER PRESSURE RIDGE INTO SOUTHERN
MAINE. BY SAT MRNG THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE SE ACROSS NRN MAINE/NEW
BRUNSWICK. THEN EAST INTO THE GULF OF ST LAWRENCE. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH NRN MAINE SUN MRNG...HIGHER PRESSURE WILL
DOMINATE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

LOADED A BLEND OF NAM/GEM/GFS/ECMWF FOR HRLY T/PD/WND/POP/SKY
MAX/MIN LOADED NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS. ADDED 15 PERCENT TO WNDS FOR
GUSTS OVER LAND...30 PERCENT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. LOADED
HPCGUIDE FOR QPF...BLENDED GFS/ECMWF FOR LAST 2 PERIODS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A CORRIDOR OF DRY AIR BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE IN CENTRAL CANADA AND
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST WILL BRING A MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. A WEST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
OF AIR WILL DEVELOP AROUND THE ATLANTIC HIGH ON MONDAY BRINGING A
WARMER DAY ON MEMORIAL DAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 70 IN MOST PLACES
EXCEPT COOLER ALONG THE COAST. THE DAY WILL BEGIN PARTLY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY THEN CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE DOWNEAST AHEAD OF A WARM
FRONT LIFTING NORTH TOWARD THE AREA. THE WARM FRONT WILL PUSH INTO
THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS LIKELY AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
INTO QUEBEC. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A CLOUDY TO PARTLY SUNNY, WARM
AND HUMID DAY ON TUESDAY AS THE MOISTURE FROM THE FRONT PUSHES EAST
AND THE LOW MOVES THROUGH QUEBEC. WARM CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY AS A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
REMAINS TO OUR NORTH AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS CONTINUE. A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS MAY THEN INCREASE ON THURSDAY AS THE WEAK FRONT PUSHES DOWN
FROM THE NORTH AND MORE MOISTURE CIRCULATES IN AROUND THE ATLANTIC
HIGH.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST 15Z
FRIDAY, THOUGH CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
MOISTURE WILL STREAM NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THIS FRONT, RESULTING IN A
PERIOD OF STRATUS AROUND 2500 FT AT KBGR AND KBHB EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. MEANWHILE, SHOWERS WILL SPREAD SOUTHWARD AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR AFTER 18Z FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

SHORT TERM: GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ALL SITES...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AS SAT MRNG AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES THROUGH...AND
AGAIN SUN MRNG WHEN THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH NRN MAINE. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. CONDITIONS MAY
DROP TO MVFR AND THEN IFR MONDAY NIGHT AND BEGIN IFR ON TUESDAY
BEFORE IMPROVING TO VFR LATE.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: HEADLINES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH FRIDAY. WINDS
AND SEAS WILL BOTH APPROACH SMALL CRAFT LEVELS LATE TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING AS WINDS INCREASE OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. BUT AS THEY ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 25 KT AND 5 FT, IT
IS NOT EXPECTED THAT AN ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED.

SHORT TERM: AN SCA MAYBE REQUIRED SAT MRNG AS A TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS. AT THIS TIME
SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 4 TO 7 FT WITH WNDS GUSTING INTO
THE LOWER 30S. WINDS AND SEAS WILL SUBSIDE SAT EVNG...SEAS WILL
BUILD AGAIN TO AROUND 6 FT ON SUNDAY AND MAY REQUIRE AN SCA FOR
SEAS.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HASTINGS
SHORT TERM...NORTON
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...HASTINGS/NORTON
MARINE...HASTINGS/NORTON



000
FXUS61 KCAR 211841
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
241 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM QUEBEC LATER TONIGHT AND MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION ON FRIDAY WITH SHOWERS FOR THE REGION. CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN UNSETTLED INTO SATURDAY AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION FROM CANADA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN DRAPED JUST TO OUR NORTHWEST
TONIGHT. AFTER A FAIRLY DRY EVENING, PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
INCREASE LATER TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST UP ALONG
THIS BOUNDARY. THIS LOW WILL PASS JUST TO OUR NORTH FRIDAY MORNING
AND THEN MOVE EAST, DRAGGING THE COLD FRONT ALONG IN ITS WAKE.
THIS FRONT WILL SERVE AS THE FOCUS FOR THE BULK OF THE EXPECTED
PRECIPITATION TOMORROW; RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL MAINLY BE A QUARTER
OF AN INCH OR LESS. THERE WILL BE SOME INSTABILITY AROUND TOMORROW
AFTERNOON; MODEL SBCAPES ARE MAINLY 100- 200 J/KG. AS USUAL, THE
NAM IS THE MOST ROBUST, GENERATING UP TO 400 J/KG AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. THIS IS LIKELY OVERDONE, SO OUTSIDE OF A STRAY RUMBLE OF
THUNDER OR TWO, DON`T EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS
TOMORROW. TONIGHT`S TEMPERATURES WILL STAY IN THE 40S, WHILE HIGHS
TOMORROW WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER THAN TODAY, GIVEN THE COLDER AIR
RUSHING IN BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE WILL
BE A SURFACE LOW OVER THE GASPE BAY PENINSULA...THE UPPER LOW
OVER CENTRAL QUEBEC...AND HIGHER PRESSURE RIDGE INTO SOUTHERN
MAINE. BY SAT MRNG THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE SE ACROSS NRN MAINE/NEW
BRUNSWICK. THEN EAST INTO THE GULF OF ST LAWRENCE. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH NRN MAINE SUN MRNG...HIGHER PRESSURE WILL
DOMINATE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

LOADED A BLEND OF NAM/GEM/GFS/ECMWF FOR HRLY T/PD/WND/POP/SKY
MAX/MIN LOADED NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS. ADDED 15 PERCENT TO WNDS FOR
GUSTS OVER LAND...30 PERCENT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. LOADED
HPCGUIDE FOR QPF...BLENDED GFS/ECMWF FOR LAST 2 PERIODS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A CORRIDOR OF DRY AIR BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE IN CENTRAL CANADA AND
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST WILL BRING A MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. A WEST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
OF AIR WILL DEVELOP AROUND THE ATLANTIC HIGH ON MONDAY BRINGING A
WARMER DAY ON MEMORIAL DAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 70 IN MOST PLACES
EXCEPT COOLER ALONG THE COAST. THE DAY WILL BEGIN PARTLY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY THEN CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE DOWNEAST AHEAD OF A WARM
FRONT LIFTING NORTH TOWARD THE AREA. THE WARM FRONT WILL PUSH INTO
THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS LIKELY AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
INTO QUEBEC. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A CLOUDY TO PARTLY SUNNY, WARM
AND HUMID DAY ON TUESDAY AS THE MOISTURE FROM THE FRONT PUSHES EAST
AND THE LOW MOVES THROUGH QUEBEC. WARM CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY AS A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
REMAINS TO OUR NORTH AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS CONTINUE. A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS MAY THEN INCREASE ON THURSDAY AS THE WEAK FRONT PUSHES DOWN
FROM THE NORTH AND MORE MOISTURE CIRCULATES IN AROUND THE ATLANTIC
HIGH.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST 15Z
FRIDAY, THOUGH CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
MOISTURE WILL STREAM NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THIS FRONT, RESULTING IN A
PERIOD OF STRATUS AROUND 2500 FT AT KBGR AND KBHB EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. MEANWHILE, SHOWERS WILL SPREAD SOUTHWARD AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR AFTER 18Z FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

SHORT TERM: GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ALL SITES...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AS SAT MRNG AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES THROUGH...AND
AGAIN SUN MRNG WHEN THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH NRN MAINE. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. CONDITIONS MAY
DROP TO MVFR AND THEN IFR MONDAY NIGHT AND BEGIN IFR ON TUESDAY
BEFORE IMPROVING TO VFR LATE.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: HEADLINES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH FRIDAY. WINDS
AND SEAS WILL BOTH APPROACH SMALL CRAFT LEVELS LATE TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING AS WINDS INCREASE OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. BUT AS THEY ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 25 KT AND 5 FT, IT
IS NOT EXPECTED THAT AN ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED.

SHORT TERM: AN SCA MAYBE REQUIRED SAT MRNG AS A TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS. AT THIS TIME
SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 4 TO 7 FT WITH WNDS GUSTING INTO
THE LOWER 30S. WINDS AND SEAS WILL SUBSIDE SAT EVNG...SEAS WILL
BUILD AGAIN TO AROUND 6 FT ON SUNDAY AND MAY REQUIRE AN SCA FOR
SEAS.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HASTINGS
SHORT TERM...NORTON
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...HASTINGS/NORTON
MARINE...HASTINGS/NORTON




000
FXUS61 KCAR 211716
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
116 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH WILL MOVE EAST TODAY. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM CUBIC LATER TONIGHT AND MOVING THROUGH
THE REGION ON FRIDAYS WITH SHOWERS FOR THE REGION. CONDITIONS
WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED INTO STUART AN UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION FROM CANAD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
115 PM UPDATE...NO SIGNFICANT CHANGES NEEDED WITH THIS UPDATE.
TWEAKED TEMPERATURES UP A COUPLE OF DEGREES AS MANY LOCATIONS WERE
ALREADY DRAWING CLOSE TO THEIR FORECASTED HIGH. ALSO ADDED
ISOLATED SHOWERS TO THIS AFTERNOON`S FORECAST FOR THE BANGOR AREA,
AS WE`RE STARTING TO SEE DECENT CUMULUS POPPING UP AND THE HRRR
CONTINUES TO SHOW THAT SHOWERS ARE GOING TO DEVELOP. NO OTHER
CHANGES WERE NEEDED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TODAY AS ANOTHER
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIDES TOWARDS THE REGION. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE
SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS FORECAST BY THE NAM AND GFS TO
SWINGS ACROSS THE REGION. LLVL CONVERGENCE IN THE WESTERN AREAS
COMBINED W/SOME WEAK MID LEVEL FORCING COULD ALLOW FOR A FEW
SHOWERS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. DECIDED TO TAKE A CONSENSUS
APCH(NAM/GFS AND HRRR 3KM) AND BROUGHT 20-30% POPS INTO THE WNW
AREAS A BIT EARLIER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. THE REST OF THE CWA
WILL REMAIN DRY. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE
LOW/MID 60S NORTH AND WEST TO THE UPPER 60S CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST.

A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ON THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND MOVE NE ACROSS NW MAINE. SHOWERS ARE
FORECAST TO MOVE INTO NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS OVERNIGHT. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT(<.05"). TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE
WARMER THAN THEY WERE THIS MORNING HOLDING IN THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK EAST OF THE GULF OF MAINE DURING FRIDAY.
STEADY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW SHOULD REMAIN TO THE EAST OF
THE STATE. HOWEVER, SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER
LOW FROM THE NORTHWEST AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT CAN BE EXPECTED ON
FRIDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE DOWN EAST COAST EARLY
FRIDAY EVENING WITH ANY LINGERING SHOWERS PUSHING OFFSHORE.
NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL USHER IN COLDER AIR FRIDAY
NIGHT. 850MB TEMPS FALL TO AROUND -5C BY 12Z SATURDAY WITH 925 MB
TEMPS DOWN TO AROUND 0C. WITH THE COLD AIR ALOFT WE COULD SEE A
FEW SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AS THE 500 MB LOW TRACKS
ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ON SATURDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE REMAINS TO OUR NORTHEAST AND A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS EAST. SKIES WILL BE PARTLY SUNNY ACROSS NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL AREAS WITH THE CHANCE OF A SHOWER AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES DOWN EAST. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE BELOW NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID TO
UPPER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY
EVENING AND CROSS THE REGION LATER SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO EARLY
SUNDAY. EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
THE CHANCE FOR A SHOWER MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. HIGHS ON
SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 60S NORTH AND CENTRAL AND
UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 DOWN EAST. EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES SUNDAY
NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A MAINLY SUNNY AND WARM MEMORIAL DAY. CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT WITH A FEW SHOWERS EXPECTED AS WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST TOWARD THE REGION. EXPECT A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AN ISLD TSTM TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY IN ADVANCE
OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL
AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT FOR ALL TERMINALS.

SHORT TERM: VFR BUT MVFR IN ANY RAIN SHOWERS FRIDAY AND RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HEADLINES THROUGH TONIGHT. SEAS ARE TO REMAIN 2 TO 3
FT INTO TONIGHT W/WINDS 10 TO 15 KTS.

SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS MAY REACH SCA LEVELS FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HASTINGS/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...HASTINGS/HEWITT/DUDA
MARINE...HASTINGS/HEWITT/DUDA



000
FXUS61 KCAR 211716
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
116 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH WILL MOVE EAST TODAY. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM CUBIC LATER TONIGHT AND MOVING THROUGH
THE REGION ON FRIDAYS WITH SHOWERS FOR THE REGION. CONDITIONS
WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED INTO STUART AN UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION FROM CANAD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
115 PM UPDATE...NO SIGNFICANT CHANGES NEEDED WITH THIS UPDATE.
TWEAKED TEMPERATURES UP A COUPLE OF DEGREES AS MANY LOCATIONS WERE
ALREADY DRAWING CLOSE TO THEIR FORECASTED HIGH. ALSO ADDED
ISOLATED SHOWERS TO THIS AFTERNOON`S FORECAST FOR THE BANGOR AREA,
AS WE`RE STARTING TO SEE DECENT CUMULUS POPPING UP AND THE HRRR
CONTINUES TO SHOW THAT SHOWERS ARE GOING TO DEVELOP. NO OTHER
CHANGES WERE NEEDED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TODAY AS ANOTHER
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIDES TOWARDS THE REGION. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE
SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS FORECAST BY THE NAM AND GFS TO
SWINGS ACROSS THE REGION. LLVL CONVERGENCE IN THE WESTERN AREAS
COMBINED W/SOME WEAK MID LEVEL FORCING COULD ALLOW FOR A FEW
SHOWERS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. DECIDED TO TAKE A CONSENSUS
APCH(NAM/GFS AND HRRR 3KM) AND BROUGHT 20-30% POPS INTO THE WNW
AREAS A BIT EARLIER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. THE REST OF THE CWA
WILL REMAIN DRY. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE
LOW/MID 60S NORTH AND WEST TO THE UPPER 60S CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST.

A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ON THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND MOVE NE ACROSS NW MAINE. SHOWERS ARE
FORECAST TO MOVE INTO NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS OVERNIGHT. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT(<.05"). TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE
WARMER THAN THEY WERE THIS MORNING HOLDING IN THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK EAST OF THE GULF OF MAINE DURING FRIDAY.
STEADY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW SHOULD REMAIN TO THE EAST OF
THE STATE. HOWEVER, SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER
LOW FROM THE NORTHWEST AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT CAN BE EXPECTED ON
FRIDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE DOWN EAST COAST EARLY
FRIDAY EVENING WITH ANY LINGERING SHOWERS PUSHING OFFSHORE.
NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL USHER IN COLDER AIR FRIDAY
NIGHT. 850MB TEMPS FALL TO AROUND -5C BY 12Z SATURDAY WITH 925 MB
TEMPS DOWN TO AROUND 0C. WITH THE COLD AIR ALOFT WE COULD SEE A
FEW SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AS THE 500 MB LOW TRACKS
ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ON SATURDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE REMAINS TO OUR NORTHEAST AND A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS EAST. SKIES WILL BE PARTLY SUNNY ACROSS NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL AREAS WITH THE CHANCE OF A SHOWER AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES DOWN EAST. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE BELOW NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID TO
UPPER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY
EVENING AND CROSS THE REGION LATER SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO EARLY
SUNDAY. EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
THE CHANCE FOR A SHOWER MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. HIGHS ON
SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 60S NORTH AND CENTRAL AND
UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 DOWN EAST. EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES SUNDAY
NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A MAINLY SUNNY AND WARM MEMORIAL DAY. CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT WITH A FEW SHOWERS EXPECTED AS WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST TOWARD THE REGION. EXPECT A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AN ISLD TSTM TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY IN ADVANCE
OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL
AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT FOR ALL TERMINALS.

SHORT TERM: VFR BUT MVFR IN ANY RAIN SHOWERS FRIDAY AND RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HEADLINES THROUGH TONIGHT. SEAS ARE TO REMAIN 2 TO 3
FT INTO TONIGHT W/WINDS 10 TO 15 KTS.

SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS MAY REACH SCA LEVELS FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HASTINGS/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...HASTINGS/HEWITT/DUDA
MARINE...HASTINGS/HEWITT/DUDA




000
FXUS61 KCAR 211716
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
116 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH WILL MOVE EAST TODAY. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM CUBIC LATER TONIGHT AND MOVING THROUGH
THE REGION ON FRIDAYS WITH SHOWERS FOR THE REGION. CONDITIONS
WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED INTO STUART AN UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION FROM CANAD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
115 PM UPDATE...NO SIGNFICANT CHANGES NEEDED WITH THIS UPDATE.
TWEAKED TEMPERATURES UP A COUPLE OF DEGREES AS MANY LOCATIONS WERE
ALREADY DRAWING CLOSE TO THEIR FORECASTED HIGH. ALSO ADDED
ISOLATED SHOWERS TO THIS AFTERNOON`S FORECAST FOR THE BANGOR AREA,
AS WE`RE STARTING TO SEE DECENT CUMULUS POPPING UP AND THE HRRR
CONTINUES TO SHOW THAT SHOWERS ARE GOING TO DEVELOP. NO OTHER
CHANGES WERE NEEDED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TODAY AS ANOTHER
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIDES TOWARDS THE REGION. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE
SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS FORECAST BY THE NAM AND GFS TO
SWINGS ACROSS THE REGION. LLVL CONVERGENCE IN THE WESTERN AREAS
COMBINED W/SOME WEAK MID LEVEL FORCING COULD ALLOW FOR A FEW
SHOWERS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. DECIDED TO TAKE A CONSENSUS
APCH(NAM/GFS AND HRRR 3KM) AND BROUGHT 20-30% POPS INTO THE WNW
AREAS A BIT EARLIER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. THE REST OF THE CWA
WILL REMAIN DRY. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE
LOW/MID 60S NORTH AND WEST TO THE UPPER 60S CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST.

A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ON THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND MOVE NE ACROSS NW MAINE. SHOWERS ARE
FORECAST TO MOVE INTO NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS OVERNIGHT. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT(<.05"). TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE
WARMER THAN THEY WERE THIS MORNING HOLDING IN THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK EAST OF THE GULF OF MAINE DURING FRIDAY.
STEADY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW SHOULD REMAIN TO THE EAST OF
THE STATE. HOWEVER, SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER
LOW FROM THE NORTHWEST AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT CAN BE EXPECTED ON
FRIDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE DOWN EAST COAST EARLY
FRIDAY EVENING WITH ANY LINGERING SHOWERS PUSHING OFFSHORE.
NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL USHER IN COLDER AIR FRIDAY
NIGHT. 850MB TEMPS FALL TO AROUND -5C BY 12Z SATURDAY WITH 925 MB
TEMPS DOWN TO AROUND 0C. WITH THE COLD AIR ALOFT WE COULD SEE A
FEW SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AS THE 500 MB LOW TRACKS
ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ON SATURDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE REMAINS TO OUR NORTHEAST AND A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS EAST. SKIES WILL BE PARTLY SUNNY ACROSS NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL AREAS WITH THE CHANCE OF A SHOWER AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES DOWN EAST. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE BELOW NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID TO
UPPER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY
EVENING AND CROSS THE REGION LATER SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO EARLY
SUNDAY. EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
THE CHANCE FOR A SHOWER MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. HIGHS ON
SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 60S NORTH AND CENTRAL AND
UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 DOWN EAST. EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES SUNDAY
NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A MAINLY SUNNY AND WARM MEMORIAL DAY. CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT WITH A FEW SHOWERS EXPECTED AS WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST TOWARD THE REGION. EXPECT A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AN ISLD TSTM TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY IN ADVANCE
OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL
AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT FOR ALL TERMINALS.

SHORT TERM: VFR BUT MVFR IN ANY RAIN SHOWERS FRIDAY AND RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HEADLINES THROUGH TONIGHT. SEAS ARE TO REMAIN 2 TO 3
FT INTO TONIGHT W/WINDS 10 TO 15 KTS.

SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS MAY REACH SCA LEVELS FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HASTINGS/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...HASTINGS/HEWITT/DUDA
MARINE...HASTINGS/HEWITT/DUDA




000
FXUS61 KGYX 211627
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1227 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OFFSHORE TODAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL PASS WELL TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
SWING ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
THEN BUILDS IN OVER THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT LOOKS TO CROSS
THE AREA TO END THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...

1225 PM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO INGEST THE 16Z MESONET IN 1ST
PERIOD GRIDS TO BETTER REFLECT THE DEVELOPING SEABREEZE.

PREV DISC...
1025 AM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO REFLECT CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS
AND TO INGEST THE 14Z MESONET INTO 1ST PERIOD GRIDS.

PREV DISC...
0645 UPDATE...ALL STATIONS IN OUR FORECAST AREA ARE NOW ABOVE
FREEZING AND WARMING. WILL BE ISSUING AN UPDATE SHORTLY TO DROP
FREEZE WARNINGS AND FROST ADVISORIES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD LEAD TO A PARTLY CLOUDY DAY ACROSS THE REGION
WITH AREAS OF CIRRUS PASSING OVERHEAD. AFTER A COLD START THIS
MORNING...TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND QUICKLY WITH HIGHS FROM THE
MID 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOW TO MID 70S IN SOUTHERN AREAS.
WINDS WILL TURN ONSHORE IN COASTAL AREAS THIS AFTERNOON LIMITING
WARMING TO THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
A SHORT WAVE PASSING THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT COMBINED WITH LOW
PASSING TO THE SOUTH WILL PRODUCE HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS
THE REGION WHICH WILL LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING. TEMPS SHOULD
REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING ALL AREAS..WITH ONLY COOS COUNTY REACHING AS
LOW AS THE MID 30S.

A COLD FRONT WILL BE CROSSING THE REGION FRIDAY. MODELS ARE NOT
CONSISTENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT WITH THE GFS BEING A BIT
FASTER. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT WITH THE
GREATEST THREAT OF RAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF FORECAST AREA
WITH A LESSER THREAT IN NEW HAMPSHIRE. TEMPS IN THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS WILL BE LIMITED BY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND MAY NOT REACH
60 DEGREES BEFORE STARTING TO COOL OFF AGAIN. SOUTH OF THE
MOUNTAINS...TEMPS WILL REACH THE 60S AND 70S PRIOR TO THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. AGAIN..ONSHORE FLOW WILL LIMIT TEMPS IN COASTAL AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE BIGGEST STORY IN THE EXTENDED COMES EARLY IN THE PERIOD.
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THRU THE REGION...WITH
SECONDARY...REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR TO ARRIVE LATE FRI/EARLY
SAT. TEMPS AT H8 WILL APPROACH 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL
BY EARLY SAT...WITH H9 TEMPS 2 SD BELOW NORMAL. BASED ON MODEL
FORECASTS H8 TEMPS OBSERVED AT 12Z SAT COULD BE SOME OF THE
COLDEST IN THE PERIOD OF RECORD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. MUCH LIKE
TONIGHT THE HIGH PRES WILL STILL BE BUILDING IN LATE FRI...MEANING
THAT THE GRADIENT WILL NOT ALLOW WINDS TO COMPLETELY DECOUPLE
EARLY ON. MAV GUIDANCE APPEARS TO BE WAY TOO COLD GIVEN A FORECAST
OF BOUNDARY LAYER STAYING AT LEAST PARTIALLY MIXED. DISCOUNTED LOW
20S FORECASTS FOR THE FAR N IN FAVOR OF A MORE REASONABLE UPPER
20S TO NEAR 30 FROM THE MET. STRENGTH OF THE FLOW EVEN SUGGESTS
SOME DOWNSLOPE WARMING IS POSSIBLE IN THE LEE OF THE MTNS...SO NOT
READY TO BITE ON NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING RIGHT TO THE COAST JUST
YET. HOWEVER IT DOES SEEM LIKELY THAT IT WILL AT LEAST BE AS COLD
AS CURRENT TEMPS TONIGHT...SO ANOTHER ROUND OF FROST/FREEZE
HEADLINES ARE LIKELY. IN ADDITION...UPPER LOW SWINGING ACROSS THE
AREA SHOULD LEAD TO SOME MTN SHOWERS. GIVEN FORECAST TEMPS
ALOFT...THOSE SHOWERS SHOULD BE OF THE FROZEN VARIETY.

WE RECOVER NICELY FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND...WITH MILDER TEMPS EXPECTED AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NWD
THRU THE NORTHEAST. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
THAT ANY COLD FRONT SUN WILL BE WEAKER AND JUST BRUSH THE
REGION...FOLLOWED BY WARM FRONT LIFTING THRU THE AREA RATHER THAN
STALLING TO THE S. THAT WILL KEEP THE THREAT FOR DIURNAL SHOWERS
IN THE FORECAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THRU THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. GUSTY WNW FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE SAT...WITH GUSTS AROUND
25 KTS POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINALS. WEAK COLD FRONT WILL TRY TO
CROSS THE AREA SUN...WITH WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS. WIDESPREAD VSBY
OR CIG RESTRICTIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME WITH THIS
FEATURE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WITH SW WINDS DEVELOPING...SEAS MAY APPROACH MINIMAL SCA
CRITERIA OFFSHORE TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY...OTHERWISE WINDS AND
SEAS BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

LONG TERM...CAA BEHIND COLD FRONT FRI WILL LEAD TO A PROBABLE
PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS ON THE WATERS SAT. THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK HIGH PRES WILL BE MORE IN
CONTROL...WITH WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY AND FRIDAY.
AFTERNOON MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL RANGE FROM 20 TO 35PERCENT
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE WITH WINDS GUSTING TO 15 TO 20 MPH.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
ES



000
FXUS61 KGYX 211627
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1227 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OFFSHORE TODAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL PASS WELL TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
SWING ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
THEN BUILDS IN OVER THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT LOOKS TO CROSS
THE AREA TO END THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...

1225 PM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO INGEST THE 16Z MESONET IN 1ST
PERIOD GRIDS TO BETTER REFLECT THE DEVELOPING SEABREEZE.

PREV DISC...
1025 AM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO REFLECT CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS
AND TO INGEST THE 14Z MESONET INTO 1ST PERIOD GRIDS.

PREV DISC...
0645 UPDATE...ALL STATIONS IN OUR FORECAST AREA ARE NOW ABOVE
FREEZING AND WARMING. WILL BE ISSUING AN UPDATE SHORTLY TO DROP
FREEZE WARNINGS AND FROST ADVISORIES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD LEAD TO A PARTLY CLOUDY DAY ACROSS THE REGION
WITH AREAS OF CIRRUS PASSING OVERHEAD. AFTER A COLD START THIS
MORNING...TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND QUICKLY WITH HIGHS FROM THE
MID 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOW TO MID 70S IN SOUTHERN AREAS.
WINDS WILL TURN ONSHORE IN COASTAL AREAS THIS AFTERNOON LIMITING
WARMING TO THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
A SHORT WAVE PASSING THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT COMBINED WITH LOW
PASSING TO THE SOUTH WILL PRODUCE HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS
THE REGION WHICH WILL LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING. TEMPS SHOULD
REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING ALL AREAS..WITH ONLY COOS COUNTY REACHING AS
LOW AS THE MID 30S.

A COLD FRONT WILL BE CROSSING THE REGION FRIDAY. MODELS ARE NOT
CONSISTENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT WITH THE GFS BEING A BIT
FASTER. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT WITH THE
GREATEST THREAT OF RAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF FORECAST AREA
WITH A LESSER THREAT IN NEW HAMPSHIRE. TEMPS IN THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS WILL BE LIMITED BY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND MAY NOT REACH
60 DEGREES BEFORE STARTING TO COOL OFF AGAIN. SOUTH OF THE
MOUNTAINS...TEMPS WILL REACH THE 60S AND 70S PRIOR TO THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. AGAIN..ONSHORE FLOW WILL LIMIT TEMPS IN COASTAL AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE BIGGEST STORY IN THE EXTENDED COMES EARLY IN THE PERIOD.
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THRU THE REGION...WITH
SECONDARY...REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR TO ARRIVE LATE FRI/EARLY
SAT. TEMPS AT H8 WILL APPROACH 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL
BY EARLY SAT...WITH H9 TEMPS 2 SD BELOW NORMAL. BASED ON MODEL
FORECASTS H8 TEMPS OBSERVED AT 12Z SAT COULD BE SOME OF THE
COLDEST IN THE PERIOD OF RECORD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. MUCH LIKE
TONIGHT THE HIGH PRES WILL STILL BE BUILDING IN LATE FRI...MEANING
THAT THE GRADIENT WILL NOT ALLOW WINDS TO COMPLETELY DECOUPLE
EARLY ON. MAV GUIDANCE APPEARS TO BE WAY TOO COLD GIVEN A FORECAST
OF BOUNDARY LAYER STAYING AT LEAST PARTIALLY MIXED. DISCOUNTED LOW
20S FORECASTS FOR THE FAR N IN FAVOR OF A MORE REASONABLE UPPER
20S TO NEAR 30 FROM THE MET. STRENGTH OF THE FLOW EVEN SUGGESTS
SOME DOWNSLOPE WARMING IS POSSIBLE IN THE LEE OF THE MTNS...SO NOT
READY TO BITE ON NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING RIGHT TO THE COAST JUST
YET. HOWEVER IT DOES SEEM LIKELY THAT IT WILL AT LEAST BE AS COLD
AS CURRENT TEMPS TONIGHT...SO ANOTHER ROUND OF FROST/FREEZE
HEADLINES ARE LIKELY. IN ADDITION...UPPER LOW SWINGING ACROSS THE
AREA SHOULD LEAD TO SOME MTN SHOWERS. GIVEN FORECAST TEMPS
ALOFT...THOSE SHOWERS SHOULD BE OF THE FROZEN VARIETY.

WE RECOVER NICELY FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND...WITH MILDER TEMPS EXPECTED AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NWD
THRU THE NORTHEAST. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
THAT ANY COLD FRONT SUN WILL BE WEAKER AND JUST BRUSH THE
REGION...FOLLOWED BY WARM FRONT LIFTING THRU THE AREA RATHER THAN
STALLING TO THE S. THAT WILL KEEP THE THREAT FOR DIURNAL SHOWERS
IN THE FORECAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THRU THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. GUSTY WNW FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE SAT...WITH GUSTS AROUND
25 KTS POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINALS. WEAK COLD FRONT WILL TRY TO
CROSS THE AREA SUN...WITH WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS. WIDESPREAD VSBY
OR CIG RESTRICTIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME WITH THIS
FEATURE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WITH SW WINDS DEVELOPING...SEAS MAY APPROACH MINIMAL SCA
CRITERIA OFFSHORE TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY...OTHERWISE WINDS AND
SEAS BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

LONG TERM...CAA BEHIND COLD FRONT FRI WILL LEAD TO A PROBABLE
PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS ON THE WATERS SAT. THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK HIGH PRES WILL BE MORE IN
CONTROL...WITH WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY AND FRIDAY.
AFTERNOON MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL RANGE FROM 20 TO 35PERCENT
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE WITH WINDS GUSTING TO 15 TO 20 MPH.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
ES




000
FXUS61 KGYX 211432
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1032 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OFFSHORE TODAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL PASS WELL TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
SWING ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
THEN BUILDS IN OVER THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT LOOKS TO CROSS
THE AREA TO END THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...

1025 AM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO REFLECT CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS
AND TO INGEST THE 14Z MESONET INTO 1ST PERIOD GRIDS.

PREV DISC...
0645 UPDATE...ALL STATIONS IN OUR FORECAST AREA ARE NOW ABOVE
FREEZING AND WARMING. WILL BE ISSUING AN UPDATE SHORTLY TO DROP
FREEZE WARNINGS AND FROST ADVISORIES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD LEAD TO A PARTLY CLOUDY DAY ACROSS THE REGION
WITH AREAS OF CIRRUS PASSING OVERHEAD. AFTER A COLD START THIS
MORNING...TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND QUICKLY WITH HIGHS FROM THE
MID 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOW TO MID 70S IN SOUTHERN AREAS.
WINDS WILL TURN ONSHORE IN COASTAL AREAS THIS AFTERNOON LIMITING
WARMING TO THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
A SHORT WAVE PASSING THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT COMBINED WITH LOW
PASSING TO THE SOUTH WILL PRODUCE HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS
THE REGION WHICH WILL LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING. TEMPS SHOULD
REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING ALL AREAS..WITH ONLY COOS COUNTY REACHING AS
LOW AS THE MID 30S.

A COLD FRONT WILL BE CROSSING THE REGION FRIDAY. MODELS ARE NOT
CONSISTENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT WITH THE GFS BEING A BIT
FASTER. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT WITH THE
GREATEST THREAT OF RAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF FORECAST AREA
WITH A LESSER THREAT IN NEW HAMPSHIRE. TEMPS IN THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS WILL BE LIMITED BY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND MAY NOT REACH
60 DEGREES BEFORE STARTING TO COOL OFF AGAIN. SOUTH OF THE
MOUNTAINS...TEMPS WILL REACH THE 60S AND 70S PRIOR TO THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. AGAIN..ONSHORE FLOW WILL LIMIT TEMPS IN COASTAL AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE BIGGEST STORY IN THE EXTENDED COMES EARLY IN THE PERIOD.
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THRU THE REGION...WITH
SECONDARY...REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR TO ARRIVE LATE FRI/EARLY
SAT. TEMPS AT H8 WILL APPROACH 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL
BY EARLY SAT...WITH H9 TEMPS 2 SD BELOW NORMAL. BASED ON MODEL
FORECASTS H8 TEMPS OBSERVED AT 12Z SAT COULD BE SOME OF THE
COLDEST IN THE PERIOD OF RECORD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. MUCH LIKE
TONIGHT THE HIGH PRES WILL STILL BE BUILDING IN LATE FRI...MEANING
THAT THE GRADIENT WILL NOT ALLOW WINDS TO COMPLETELY DECOUPLE
EARLY ON. MAV GUIDANCE APPEARS TO BE WAY TOO COLD GIVEN A FORECAST
OF BOUNDARY LAYER STAYING AT LEAST PARTIALLY MIXED. DISCOUNTED LOW
20S FORECASTS FOR THE FAR N IN FAVOR OF A MORE REASONABLE UPPER
20S TO NEAR 30 FROM THE MET. STRENGTH OF THE FLOW EVEN SUGGESTS
SOME DOWNSLOPE WARMING IS POSSIBLE IN THE LEE OF THE MTNS...SO NOT
READY TO BITE ON NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING RIGHT TO THE COAST JUST
YET. HOWEVER IT DOES SEEM LIKELY THAT IT WILL AT LEAST BE AS COLD
AS CURRENT TEMPS TONIGHT...SO ANOTHER ROUND OF FROST/FREEZE
HEADLINES ARE LIKELY. IN ADDITION...UPPER LOW SWINGING ACROSS THE
AREA SHOULD LEAD TO SOME MTN SHOWERS. GIVEN FORECAST TEMPS
ALOFT...THOSE SHOWERS SHOULD BE OF THE FROZEN VARIETY.

WE RECOVER NICELY FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND...WITH MILDER TEMPS EXPECTED AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NWD
THRU THE NORTHEAST. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
THAT ANY COLD FRONT SUN WILL BE WEAKER AND JUST BRUSH THE
REGION...FOLLOWED BY WARM FRONT LIFTING THRU THE AREA RATHER THAN
STALLING TO THE S. THAT WILL KEEP THE THREAT FOR DIURNAL SHOWERS
IN THE FORECAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THRU THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. GUSTY WNW FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE SAT...WITH GUSTS AROUND
25 KTS POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINALS. WEAK COLD FRONT WILL TRY TO
CROSS THE AREA SUN...WITH WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS. WIDESPREAD VSBY
OR CIG RESTRICTIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME WITH THIS
FEATURE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WITH SW WINDS DEVELOPING...SEAS MAY APPROACH MINIMAL SCA
CRITERIA OFFSHORE TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY...OTHERWISE WINDS AND
SEAS BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

LONG TERM...CAA BEHIND COLD FRONT FRI WILL LEAD TO A PROBABLE
PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS ON THE WATERS SAT. THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK HIGH PRES WILL BE MORE IN
CONTROL...WITH WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY AND FRIDAY.
AFTERNOON MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL RANGE FROM 20 TO 35PERCENT
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE WITH WINDS GUSTING TO 15 TO 20 MPH.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
ES




000
FXUS61 KGYX 211432
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1032 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OFFSHORE TODAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL PASS WELL TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
SWING ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
THEN BUILDS IN OVER THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT LOOKS TO CROSS
THE AREA TO END THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...

1025 AM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO REFLECT CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS
AND TO INGEST THE 14Z MESONET INTO 1ST PERIOD GRIDS.

PREV DISC...
0645 UPDATE...ALL STATIONS IN OUR FORECAST AREA ARE NOW ABOVE
FREEZING AND WARMING. WILL BE ISSUING AN UPDATE SHORTLY TO DROP
FREEZE WARNINGS AND FROST ADVISORIES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD LEAD TO A PARTLY CLOUDY DAY ACROSS THE REGION
WITH AREAS OF CIRRUS PASSING OVERHEAD. AFTER A COLD START THIS
MORNING...TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND QUICKLY WITH HIGHS FROM THE
MID 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOW TO MID 70S IN SOUTHERN AREAS.
WINDS WILL TURN ONSHORE IN COASTAL AREAS THIS AFTERNOON LIMITING
WARMING TO THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
A SHORT WAVE PASSING THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT COMBINED WITH LOW
PASSING TO THE SOUTH WILL PRODUCE HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS
THE REGION WHICH WILL LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING. TEMPS SHOULD
REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING ALL AREAS..WITH ONLY COOS COUNTY REACHING AS
LOW AS THE MID 30S.

A COLD FRONT WILL BE CROSSING THE REGION FRIDAY. MODELS ARE NOT
CONSISTENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT WITH THE GFS BEING A BIT
FASTER. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT WITH THE
GREATEST THREAT OF RAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF FORECAST AREA
WITH A LESSER THREAT IN NEW HAMPSHIRE. TEMPS IN THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS WILL BE LIMITED BY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND MAY NOT REACH
60 DEGREES BEFORE STARTING TO COOL OFF AGAIN. SOUTH OF THE
MOUNTAINS...TEMPS WILL REACH THE 60S AND 70S PRIOR TO THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. AGAIN..ONSHORE FLOW WILL LIMIT TEMPS IN COASTAL AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE BIGGEST STORY IN THE EXTENDED COMES EARLY IN THE PERIOD.
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THRU THE REGION...WITH
SECONDARY...REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR TO ARRIVE LATE FRI/EARLY
SAT. TEMPS AT H8 WILL APPROACH 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL
BY EARLY SAT...WITH H9 TEMPS 2 SD BELOW NORMAL. BASED ON MODEL
FORECASTS H8 TEMPS OBSERVED AT 12Z SAT COULD BE SOME OF THE
COLDEST IN THE PERIOD OF RECORD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. MUCH LIKE
TONIGHT THE HIGH PRES WILL STILL BE BUILDING IN LATE FRI...MEANING
THAT THE GRADIENT WILL NOT ALLOW WINDS TO COMPLETELY DECOUPLE
EARLY ON. MAV GUIDANCE APPEARS TO BE WAY TOO COLD GIVEN A FORECAST
OF BOUNDARY LAYER STAYING AT LEAST PARTIALLY MIXED. DISCOUNTED LOW
20S FORECASTS FOR THE FAR N IN FAVOR OF A MORE REASONABLE UPPER
20S TO NEAR 30 FROM THE MET. STRENGTH OF THE FLOW EVEN SUGGESTS
SOME DOWNSLOPE WARMING IS POSSIBLE IN THE LEE OF THE MTNS...SO NOT
READY TO BITE ON NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING RIGHT TO THE COAST JUST
YET. HOWEVER IT DOES SEEM LIKELY THAT IT WILL AT LEAST BE AS COLD
AS CURRENT TEMPS TONIGHT...SO ANOTHER ROUND OF FROST/FREEZE
HEADLINES ARE LIKELY. IN ADDITION...UPPER LOW SWINGING ACROSS THE
AREA SHOULD LEAD TO SOME MTN SHOWERS. GIVEN FORECAST TEMPS
ALOFT...THOSE SHOWERS SHOULD BE OF THE FROZEN VARIETY.

WE RECOVER NICELY FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND...WITH MILDER TEMPS EXPECTED AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NWD
THRU THE NORTHEAST. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
THAT ANY COLD FRONT SUN WILL BE WEAKER AND JUST BRUSH THE
REGION...FOLLOWED BY WARM FRONT LIFTING THRU THE AREA RATHER THAN
STALLING TO THE S. THAT WILL KEEP THE THREAT FOR DIURNAL SHOWERS
IN THE FORECAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THRU THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. GUSTY WNW FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE SAT...WITH GUSTS AROUND
25 KTS POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINALS. WEAK COLD FRONT WILL TRY TO
CROSS THE AREA SUN...WITH WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS. WIDESPREAD VSBY
OR CIG RESTRICTIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME WITH THIS
FEATURE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WITH SW WINDS DEVELOPING...SEAS MAY APPROACH MINIMAL SCA
CRITERIA OFFSHORE TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY...OTHERWISE WINDS AND
SEAS BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

LONG TERM...CAA BEHIND COLD FRONT FRI WILL LEAD TO A PROBABLE
PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS ON THE WATERS SAT. THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK HIGH PRES WILL BE MORE IN
CONTROL...WITH WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY AND FRIDAY.
AFTERNOON MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL RANGE FROM 20 TO 35PERCENT
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE WITH WINDS GUSTING TO 15 TO 20 MPH.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
ES



000
FXUS61 KGYX 211432
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1032 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OFFSHORE TODAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL PASS WELL TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
SWING ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
THEN BUILDS IN OVER THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT LOOKS TO CROSS
THE AREA TO END THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...

1025 AM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO REFLECT CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS
AND TO INGEST THE 14Z MESONET INTO 1ST PERIOD GRIDS.

PREV DISC...
0645 UPDATE...ALL STATIONS IN OUR FORECAST AREA ARE NOW ABOVE
FREEZING AND WARMING. WILL BE ISSUING AN UPDATE SHORTLY TO DROP
FREEZE WARNINGS AND FROST ADVISORIES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD LEAD TO A PARTLY CLOUDY DAY ACROSS THE REGION
WITH AREAS OF CIRRUS PASSING OVERHEAD. AFTER A COLD START THIS
MORNING...TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND QUICKLY WITH HIGHS FROM THE
MID 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOW TO MID 70S IN SOUTHERN AREAS.
WINDS WILL TURN ONSHORE IN COASTAL AREAS THIS AFTERNOON LIMITING
WARMING TO THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
A SHORT WAVE PASSING THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT COMBINED WITH LOW
PASSING TO THE SOUTH WILL PRODUCE HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS
THE REGION WHICH WILL LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING. TEMPS SHOULD
REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING ALL AREAS..WITH ONLY COOS COUNTY REACHING AS
LOW AS THE MID 30S.

A COLD FRONT WILL BE CROSSING THE REGION FRIDAY. MODELS ARE NOT
CONSISTENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT WITH THE GFS BEING A BIT
FASTER. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT WITH THE
GREATEST THREAT OF RAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF FORECAST AREA
WITH A LESSER THREAT IN NEW HAMPSHIRE. TEMPS IN THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS WILL BE LIMITED BY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND MAY NOT REACH
60 DEGREES BEFORE STARTING TO COOL OFF AGAIN. SOUTH OF THE
MOUNTAINS...TEMPS WILL REACH THE 60S AND 70S PRIOR TO THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. AGAIN..ONSHORE FLOW WILL LIMIT TEMPS IN COASTAL AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE BIGGEST STORY IN THE EXTENDED COMES EARLY IN THE PERIOD.
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THRU THE REGION...WITH
SECONDARY...REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR TO ARRIVE LATE FRI/EARLY
SAT. TEMPS AT H8 WILL APPROACH 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL
BY EARLY SAT...WITH H9 TEMPS 2 SD BELOW NORMAL. BASED ON MODEL
FORECASTS H8 TEMPS OBSERVED AT 12Z SAT COULD BE SOME OF THE
COLDEST IN THE PERIOD OF RECORD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. MUCH LIKE
TONIGHT THE HIGH PRES WILL STILL BE BUILDING IN LATE FRI...MEANING
THAT THE GRADIENT WILL NOT ALLOW WINDS TO COMPLETELY DECOUPLE
EARLY ON. MAV GUIDANCE APPEARS TO BE WAY TOO COLD GIVEN A FORECAST
OF BOUNDARY LAYER STAYING AT LEAST PARTIALLY MIXED. DISCOUNTED LOW
20S FORECASTS FOR THE FAR N IN FAVOR OF A MORE REASONABLE UPPER
20S TO NEAR 30 FROM THE MET. STRENGTH OF THE FLOW EVEN SUGGESTS
SOME DOWNSLOPE WARMING IS POSSIBLE IN THE LEE OF THE MTNS...SO NOT
READY TO BITE ON NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING RIGHT TO THE COAST JUST
YET. HOWEVER IT DOES SEEM LIKELY THAT IT WILL AT LEAST BE AS COLD
AS CURRENT TEMPS TONIGHT...SO ANOTHER ROUND OF FROST/FREEZE
HEADLINES ARE LIKELY. IN ADDITION...UPPER LOW SWINGING ACROSS THE
AREA SHOULD LEAD TO SOME MTN SHOWERS. GIVEN FORECAST TEMPS
ALOFT...THOSE SHOWERS SHOULD BE OF THE FROZEN VARIETY.

WE RECOVER NICELY FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND...WITH MILDER TEMPS EXPECTED AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NWD
THRU THE NORTHEAST. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
THAT ANY COLD FRONT SUN WILL BE WEAKER AND JUST BRUSH THE
REGION...FOLLOWED BY WARM FRONT LIFTING THRU THE AREA RATHER THAN
STALLING TO THE S. THAT WILL KEEP THE THREAT FOR DIURNAL SHOWERS
IN THE FORECAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THRU THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. GUSTY WNW FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE SAT...WITH GUSTS AROUND
25 KTS POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINALS. WEAK COLD FRONT WILL TRY TO
CROSS THE AREA SUN...WITH WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS. WIDESPREAD VSBY
OR CIG RESTRICTIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME WITH THIS
FEATURE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WITH SW WINDS DEVELOPING...SEAS MAY APPROACH MINIMAL SCA
CRITERIA OFFSHORE TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY...OTHERWISE WINDS AND
SEAS BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

LONG TERM...CAA BEHIND COLD FRONT FRI WILL LEAD TO A PROBABLE
PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS ON THE WATERS SAT. THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK HIGH PRES WILL BE MORE IN
CONTROL...WITH WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY AND FRIDAY.
AFTERNOON MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL RANGE FROM 20 TO 35PERCENT
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE WITH WINDS GUSTING TO 15 TO 20 MPH.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
ES



000
FXUS61 KGYX 211432
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1032 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OFFSHORE TODAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL PASS WELL TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
SWING ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
THEN BUILDS IN OVER THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT LOOKS TO CROSS
THE AREA TO END THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...

1025 AM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO REFLECT CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS
AND TO INGEST THE 14Z MESONET INTO 1ST PERIOD GRIDS.

PREV DISC...
0645 UPDATE...ALL STATIONS IN OUR FORECAST AREA ARE NOW ABOVE
FREEZING AND WARMING. WILL BE ISSUING AN UPDATE SHORTLY TO DROP
FREEZE WARNINGS AND FROST ADVISORIES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD LEAD TO A PARTLY CLOUDY DAY ACROSS THE REGION
WITH AREAS OF CIRRUS PASSING OVERHEAD. AFTER A COLD START THIS
MORNING...TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND QUICKLY WITH HIGHS FROM THE
MID 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOW TO MID 70S IN SOUTHERN AREAS.
WINDS WILL TURN ONSHORE IN COASTAL AREAS THIS AFTERNOON LIMITING
WARMING TO THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
A SHORT WAVE PASSING THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT COMBINED WITH LOW
PASSING TO THE SOUTH WILL PRODUCE HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS
THE REGION WHICH WILL LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING. TEMPS SHOULD
REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING ALL AREAS..WITH ONLY COOS COUNTY REACHING AS
LOW AS THE MID 30S.

A COLD FRONT WILL BE CROSSING THE REGION FRIDAY. MODELS ARE NOT
CONSISTENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT WITH THE GFS BEING A BIT
FASTER. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT WITH THE
GREATEST THREAT OF RAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF FORECAST AREA
WITH A LESSER THREAT IN NEW HAMPSHIRE. TEMPS IN THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS WILL BE LIMITED BY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND MAY NOT REACH
60 DEGREES BEFORE STARTING TO COOL OFF AGAIN. SOUTH OF THE
MOUNTAINS...TEMPS WILL REACH THE 60S AND 70S PRIOR TO THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. AGAIN..ONSHORE FLOW WILL LIMIT TEMPS IN COASTAL AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE BIGGEST STORY IN THE EXTENDED COMES EARLY IN THE PERIOD.
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THRU THE REGION...WITH
SECONDARY...REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR TO ARRIVE LATE FRI/EARLY
SAT. TEMPS AT H8 WILL APPROACH 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL
BY EARLY SAT...WITH H9 TEMPS 2 SD BELOW NORMAL. BASED ON MODEL
FORECASTS H8 TEMPS OBSERVED AT 12Z SAT COULD BE SOME OF THE
COLDEST IN THE PERIOD OF RECORD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. MUCH LIKE
TONIGHT THE HIGH PRES WILL STILL BE BUILDING IN LATE FRI...MEANING
THAT THE GRADIENT WILL NOT ALLOW WINDS TO COMPLETELY DECOUPLE
EARLY ON. MAV GUIDANCE APPEARS TO BE WAY TOO COLD GIVEN A FORECAST
OF BOUNDARY LAYER STAYING AT LEAST PARTIALLY MIXED. DISCOUNTED LOW
20S FORECASTS FOR THE FAR N IN FAVOR OF A MORE REASONABLE UPPER
20S TO NEAR 30 FROM THE MET. STRENGTH OF THE FLOW EVEN SUGGESTS
SOME DOWNSLOPE WARMING IS POSSIBLE IN THE LEE OF THE MTNS...SO NOT
READY TO BITE ON NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING RIGHT TO THE COAST JUST
YET. HOWEVER IT DOES SEEM LIKELY THAT IT WILL AT LEAST BE AS COLD
AS CURRENT TEMPS TONIGHT...SO ANOTHER ROUND OF FROST/FREEZE
HEADLINES ARE LIKELY. IN ADDITION...UPPER LOW SWINGING ACROSS THE
AREA SHOULD LEAD TO SOME MTN SHOWERS. GIVEN FORECAST TEMPS
ALOFT...THOSE SHOWERS SHOULD BE OF THE FROZEN VARIETY.

WE RECOVER NICELY FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND...WITH MILDER TEMPS EXPECTED AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NWD
THRU THE NORTHEAST. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
THAT ANY COLD FRONT SUN WILL BE WEAKER AND JUST BRUSH THE
REGION...FOLLOWED BY WARM FRONT LIFTING THRU THE AREA RATHER THAN
STALLING TO THE S. THAT WILL KEEP THE THREAT FOR DIURNAL SHOWERS
IN THE FORECAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THRU THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. GUSTY WNW FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE SAT...WITH GUSTS AROUND
25 KTS POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINALS. WEAK COLD FRONT WILL TRY TO
CROSS THE AREA SUN...WITH WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS. WIDESPREAD VSBY
OR CIG RESTRICTIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME WITH THIS
FEATURE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WITH SW WINDS DEVELOPING...SEAS MAY APPROACH MINIMAL SCA
CRITERIA OFFSHORE TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY...OTHERWISE WINDS AND
SEAS BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

LONG TERM...CAA BEHIND COLD FRONT FRI WILL LEAD TO A PROBABLE
PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS ON THE WATERS SAT. THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK HIGH PRES WILL BE MORE IN
CONTROL...WITH WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY AND FRIDAY.
AFTERNOON MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL RANGE FROM 20 TO 35PERCENT
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE WITH WINDS GUSTING TO 15 TO 20 MPH.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
ES



000
FXUS61 KGYX 211432
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1032 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OFFSHORE TODAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL PASS WELL TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
SWING ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
THEN BUILDS IN OVER THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT LOOKS TO CROSS
THE AREA TO END THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...

1025 AM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO REFLECT CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS
AND TO INGEST THE 14Z MESONET INTO 1ST PERIOD GRIDS.

PREV DISC...
0645 UPDATE...ALL STATIONS IN OUR FORECAST AREA ARE NOW ABOVE
FREEZING AND WARMING. WILL BE ISSUING AN UPDATE SHORTLY TO DROP
FREEZE WARNINGS AND FROST ADVISORIES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD LEAD TO A PARTLY CLOUDY DAY ACROSS THE REGION
WITH AREAS OF CIRRUS PASSING OVERHEAD. AFTER A COLD START THIS
MORNING...TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND QUICKLY WITH HIGHS FROM THE
MID 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOW TO MID 70S IN SOUTHERN AREAS.
WINDS WILL TURN ONSHORE IN COASTAL AREAS THIS AFTERNOON LIMITING
WARMING TO THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
A SHORT WAVE PASSING THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT COMBINED WITH LOW
PASSING TO THE SOUTH WILL PRODUCE HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS
THE REGION WHICH WILL LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING. TEMPS SHOULD
REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING ALL AREAS..WITH ONLY COOS COUNTY REACHING AS
LOW AS THE MID 30S.

A COLD FRONT WILL BE CROSSING THE REGION FRIDAY. MODELS ARE NOT
CONSISTENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT WITH THE GFS BEING A BIT
FASTER. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT WITH THE
GREATEST THREAT OF RAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF FORECAST AREA
WITH A LESSER THREAT IN NEW HAMPSHIRE. TEMPS IN THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS WILL BE LIMITED BY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND MAY NOT REACH
60 DEGREES BEFORE STARTING TO COOL OFF AGAIN. SOUTH OF THE
MOUNTAINS...TEMPS WILL REACH THE 60S AND 70S PRIOR TO THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. AGAIN..ONSHORE FLOW WILL LIMIT TEMPS IN COASTAL AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE BIGGEST STORY IN THE EXTENDED COMES EARLY IN THE PERIOD.
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THRU THE REGION...WITH
SECONDARY...REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR TO ARRIVE LATE FRI/EARLY
SAT. TEMPS AT H8 WILL APPROACH 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL
BY EARLY SAT...WITH H9 TEMPS 2 SD BELOW NORMAL. BASED ON MODEL
FORECASTS H8 TEMPS OBSERVED AT 12Z SAT COULD BE SOME OF THE
COLDEST IN THE PERIOD OF RECORD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. MUCH LIKE
TONIGHT THE HIGH PRES WILL STILL BE BUILDING IN LATE FRI...MEANING
THAT THE GRADIENT WILL NOT ALLOW WINDS TO COMPLETELY DECOUPLE
EARLY ON. MAV GUIDANCE APPEARS TO BE WAY TOO COLD GIVEN A FORECAST
OF BOUNDARY LAYER STAYING AT LEAST PARTIALLY MIXED. DISCOUNTED LOW
20S FORECASTS FOR THE FAR N IN FAVOR OF A MORE REASONABLE UPPER
20S TO NEAR 30 FROM THE MET. STRENGTH OF THE FLOW EVEN SUGGESTS
SOME DOWNSLOPE WARMING IS POSSIBLE IN THE LEE OF THE MTNS...SO NOT
READY TO BITE ON NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING RIGHT TO THE COAST JUST
YET. HOWEVER IT DOES SEEM LIKELY THAT IT WILL AT LEAST BE AS COLD
AS CURRENT TEMPS TONIGHT...SO ANOTHER ROUND OF FROST/FREEZE
HEADLINES ARE LIKELY. IN ADDITION...UPPER LOW SWINGING ACROSS THE
AREA SHOULD LEAD TO SOME MTN SHOWERS. GIVEN FORECAST TEMPS
ALOFT...THOSE SHOWERS SHOULD BE OF THE FROZEN VARIETY.

WE RECOVER NICELY FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND...WITH MILDER TEMPS EXPECTED AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NWD
THRU THE NORTHEAST. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
THAT ANY COLD FRONT SUN WILL BE WEAKER AND JUST BRUSH THE
REGION...FOLLOWED BY WARM FRONT LIFTING THRU THE AREA RATHER THAN
STALLING TO THE S. THAT WILL KEEP THE THREAT FOR DIURNAL SHOWERS
IN THE FORECAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THRU THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. GUSTY WNW FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE SAT...WITH GUSTS AROUND
25 KTS POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINALS. WEAK COLD FRONT WILL TRY TO
CROSS THE AREA SUN...WITH WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS. WIDESPREAD VSBY
OR CIG RESTRICTIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME WITH THIS
FEATURE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WITH SW WINDS DEVELOPING...SEAS MAY APPROACH MINIMAL SCA
CRITERIA OFFSHORE TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY...OTHERWISE WINDS AND
SEAS BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

LONG TERM...CAA BEHIND COLD FRONT FRI WILL LEAD TO A PROBABLE
PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS ON THE WATERS SAT. THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK HIGH PRES WILL BE MORE IN
CONTROL...WITH WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY AND FRIDAY.
AFTERNOON MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL RANGE FROM 20 TO 35PERCENT
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE WITH WINDS GUSTING TO 15 TO 20 MPH.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
ES



000
FXUS61 KGYX 211432
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1032 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OFFSHORE TODAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL PASS WELL TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
SWING ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
THEN BUILDS IN OVER THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT LOOKS TO CROSS
THE AREA TO END THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...

1025 AM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO REFLECT CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS
AND TO INGEST THE 14Z MESONET INTO 1ST PERIOD GRIDS.

PREV DISC...
0645 UPDATE...ALL STATIONS IN OUR FORECAST AREA ARE NOW ABOVE
FREEZING AND WARMING. WILL BE ISSUING AN UPDATE SHORTLY TO DROP
FREEZE WARNINGS AND FROST ADVISORIES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD LEAD TO A PARTLY CLOUDY DAY ACROSS THE REGION
WITH AREAS OF CIRRUS PASSING OVERHEAD. AFTER A COLD START THIS
MORNING...TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND QUICKLY WITH HIGHS FROM THE
MID 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOW TO MID 70S IN SOUTHERN AREAS.
WINDS WILL TURN ONSHORE IN COASTAL AREAS THIS AFTERNOON LIMITING
WARMING TO THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
A SHORT WAVE PASSING THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT COMBINED WITH LOW
PASSING TO THE SOUTH WILL PRODUCE HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS
THE REGION WHICH WILL LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING. TEMPS SHOULD
REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING ALL AREAS..WITH ONLY COOS COUNTY REACHING AS
LOW AS THE MID 30S.

A COLD FRONT WILL BE CROSSING THE REGION FRIDAY. MODELS ARE NOT
CONSISTENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT WITH THE GFS BEING A BIT
FASTER. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT WITH THE
GREATEST THREAT OF RAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF FORECAST AREA
WITH A LESSER THREAT IN NEW HAMPSHIRE. TEMPS IN THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS WILL BE LIMITED BY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND MAY NOT REACH
60 DEGREES BEFORE STARTING TO COOL OFF AGAIN. SOUTH OF THE
MOUNTAINS...TEMPS WILL REACH THE 60S AND 70S PRIOR TO THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. AGAIN..ONSHORE FLOW WILL LIMIT TEMPS IN COASTAL AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE BIGGEST STORY IN THE EXTENDED COMES EARLY IN THE PERIOD.
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THRU THE REGION...WITH
SECONDARY...REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR TO ARRIVE LATE FRI/EARLY
SAT. TEMPS AT H8 WILL APPROACH 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL
BY EARLY SAT...WITH H9 TEMPS 2 SD BELOW NORMAL. BASED ON MODEL
FORECASTS H8 TEMPS OBSERVED AT 12Z SAT COULD BE SOME OF THE
COLDEST IN THE PERIOD OF RECORD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. MUCH LIKE
TONIGHT THE HIGH PRES WILL STILL BE BUILDING IN LATE FRI...MEANING
THAT THE GRADIENT WILL NOT ALLOW WINDS TO COMPLETELY DECOUPLE
EARLY ON. MAV GUIDANCE APPEARS TO BE WAY TOO COLD GIVEN A FORECAST
OF BOUNDARY LAYER STAYING AT LEAST PARTIALLY MIXED. DISCOUNTED LOW
20S FORECASTS FOR THE FAR N IN FAVOR OF A MORE REASONABLE UPPER
20S TO NEAR 30 FROM THE MET. STRENGTH OF THE FLOW EVEN SUGGESTS
SOME DOWNSLOPE WARMING IS POSSIBLE IN THE LEE OF THE MTNS...SO NOT
READY TO BITE ON NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING RIGHT TO THE COAST JUST
YET. HOWEVER IT DOES SEEM LIKELY THAT IT WILL AT LEAST BE AS COLD
AS CURRENT TEMPS TONIGHT...SO ANOTHER ROUND OF FROST/FREEZE
HEADLINES ARE LIKELY. IN ADDITION...UPPER LOW SWINGING ACROSS THE
AREA SHOULD LEAD TO SOME MTN SHOWERS. GIVEN FORECAST TEMPS
ALOFT...THOSE SHOWERS SHOULD BE OF THE FROZEN VARIETY.

WE RECOVER NICELY FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND...WITH MILDER TEMPS EXPECTED AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NWD
THRU THE NORTHEAST. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
THAT ANY COLD FRONT SUN WILL BE WEAKER AND JUST BRUSH THE
REGION...FOLLOWED BY WARM FRONT LIFTING THRU THE AREA RATHER THAN
STALLING TO THE S. THAT WILL KEEP THE THREAT FOR DIURNAL SHOWERS
IN THE FORECAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THRU THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. GUSTY WNW FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE SAT...WITH GUSTS AROUND
25 KTS POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINALS. WEAK COLD FRONT WILL TRY TO
CROSS THE AREA SUN...WITH WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS. WIDESPREAD VSBY
OR CIG RESTRICTIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME WITH THIS
FEATURE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WITH SW WINDS DEVELOPING...SEAS MAY APPROACH MINIMAL SCA
CRITERIA OFFSHORE TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY...OTHERWISE WINDS AND
SEAS BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

LONG TERM...CAA BEHIND COLD FRONT FRI WILL LEAD TO A PROBABLE
PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS ON THE WATERS SAT. THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK HIGH PRES WILL BE MORE IN
CONTROL...WITH WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY AND FRIDAY.
AFTERNOON MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL RANGE FROM 20 TO 35PERCENT
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE WITH WINDS GUSTING TO 15 TO 20 MPH.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
ES



000
FXUS61 KGYX 211432
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1032 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OFFSHORE TODAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL PASS WELL TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
SWING ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
THEN BUILDS IN OVER THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT LOOKS TO CROSS
THE AREA TO END THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...

1025 AM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO REFLECT CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS
AND TO INGEST THE 14Z MESONET INTO 1ST PERIOD GRIDS.

PREV DISC...
0645 UPDATE...ALL STATIONS IN OUR FORECAST AREA ARE NOW ABOVE
FREEZING AND WARMING. WILL BE ISSUING AN UPDATE SHORTLY TO DROP
FREEZE WARNINGS AND FROST ADVISORIES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD LEAD TO A PARTLY CLOUDY DAY ACROSS THE REGION
WITH AREAS OF CIRRUS PASSING OVERHEAD. AFTER A COLD START THIS
MORNING...TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND QUICKLY WITH HIGHS FROM THE
MID 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOW TO MID 70S IN SOUTHERN AREAS.
WINDS WILL TURN ONSHORE IN COASTAL AREAS THIS AFTERNOON LIMITING
WARMING TO THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
A SHORT WAVE PASSING THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT COMBINED WITH LOW
PASSING TO THE SOUTH WILL PRODUCE HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS
THE REGION WHICH WILL LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING. TEMPS SHOULD
REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING ALL AREAS..WITH ONLY COOS COUNTY REACHING AS
LOW AS THE MID 30S.

A COLD FRONT WILL BE CROSSING THE REGION FRIDAY. MODELS ARE NOT
CONSISTENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT WITH THE GFS BEING A BIT
FASTER. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT WITH THE
GREATEST THREAT OF RAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF FORECAST AREA
WITH A LESSER THREAT IN NEW HAMPSHIRE. TEMPS IN THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS WILL BE LIMITED BY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND MAY NOT REACH
60 DEGREES BEFORE STARTING TO COOL OFF AGAIN. SOUTH OF THE
MOUNTAINS...TEMPS WILL REACH THE 60S AND 70S PRIOR TO THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. AGAIN..ONSHORE FLOW WILL LIMIT TEMPS IN COASTAL AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE BIGGEST STORY IN THE EXTENDED COMES EARLY IN THE PERIOD.
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THRU THE REGION...WITH
SECONDARY...REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR TO ARRIVE LATE FRI/EARLY
SAT. TEMPS AT H8 WILL APPROACH 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL
BY EARLY SAT...WITH H9 TEMPS 2 SD BELOW NORMAL. BASED ON MODEL
FORECASTS H8 TEMPS OBSERVED AT 12Z SAT COULD BE SOME OF THE
COLDEST IN THE PERIOD OF RECORD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. MUCH LIKE
TONIGHT THE HIGH PRES WILL STILL BE BUILDING IN LATE FRI...MEANING
THAT THE GRADIENT WILL NOT ALLOW WINDS TO COMPLETELY DECOUPLE
EARLY ON. MAV GUIDANCE APPEARS TO BE WAY TOO COLD GIVEN A FORECAST
OF BOUNDARY LAYER STAYING AT LEAST PARTIALLY MIXED. DISCOUNTED LOW
20S FORECASTS FOR THE FAR N IN FAVOR OF A MORE REASONABLE UPPER
20S TO NEAR 30 FROM THE MET. STRENGTH OF THE FLOW EVEN SUGGESTS
SOME DOWNSLOPE WARMING IS POSSIBLE IN THE LEE OF THE MTNS...SO NOT
READY TO BITE ON NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING RIGHT TO THE COAST JUST
YET. HOWEVER IT DOES SEEM LIKELY THAT IT WILL AT LEAST BE AS COLD
AS CURRENT TEMPS TONIGHT...SO ANOTHER ROUND OF FROST/FREEZE
HEADLINES ARE LIKELY. IN ADDITION...UPPER LOW SWINGING ACROSS THE
AREA SHOULD LEAD TO SOME MTN SHOWERS. GIVEN FORECAST TEMPS
ALOFT...THOSE SHOWERS SHOULD BE OF THE FROZEN VARIETY.

WE RECOVER NICELY FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND...WITH MILDER TEMPS EXPECTED AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NWD
THRU THE NORTHEAST. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
THAT ANY COLD FRONT SUN WILL BE WEAKER AND JUST BRUSH THE
REGION...FOLLOWED BY WARM FRONT LIFTING THRU THE AREA RATHER THAN
STALLING TO THE S. THAT WILL KEEP THE THREAT FOR DIURNAL SHOWERS
IN THE FORECAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THRU THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. GUSTY WNW FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE SAT...WITH GUSTS AROUND
25 KTS POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINALS. WEAK COLD FRONT WILL TRY TO
CROSS THE AREA SUN...WITH WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS. WIDESPREAD VSBY
OR CIG RESTRICTIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME WITH THIS
FEATURE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WITH SW WINDS DEVELOPING...SEAS MAY APPROACH MINIMAL SCA
CRITERIA OFFSHORE TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY...OTHERWISE WINDS AND
SEAS BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

LONG TERM...CAA BEHIND COLD FRONT FRI WILL LEAD TO A PROBABLE
PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS ON THE WATERS SAT. THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK HIGH PRES WILL BE MORE IN
CONTROL...WITH WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY AND FRIDAY.
AFTERNOON MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL RANGE FROM 20 TO 35PERCENT
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE WITH WINDS GUSTING TO 15 TO 20 MPH.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
ES



000
FXUS61 KGYX 211432
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1032 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OFFSHORE TODAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL PASS WELL TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
SWING ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
THEN BUILDS IN OVER THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT LOOKS TO CROSS
THE AREA TO END THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...

1025 AM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO REFLECT CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS
AND TO INGEST THE 14Z MESONET INTO 1ST PERIOD GRIDS.

PREV DISC...
0645 UPDATE...ALL STATIONS IN OUR FORECAST AREA ARE NOW ABOVE
FREEZING AND WARMING. WILL BE ISSUING AN UPDATE SHORTLY TO DROP
FREEZE WARNINGS AND FROST ADVISORIES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD LEAD TO A PARTLY CLOUDY DAY ACROSS THE REGION
WITH AREAS OF CIRRUS PASSING OVERHEAD. AFTER A COLD START THIS
MORNING...TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND QUICKLY WITH HIGHS FROM THE
MID 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOW TO MID 70S IN SOUTHERN AREAS.
WINDS WILL TURN ONSHORE IN COASTAL AREAS THIS AFTERNOON LIMITING
WARMING TO THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
A SHORT WAVE PASSING THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT COMBINED WITH LOW
PASSING TO THE SOUTH WILL PRODUCE HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS
THE REGION WHICH WILL LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING. TEMPS SHOULD
REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING ALL AREAS..WITH ONLY COOS COUNTY REACHING AS
LOW AS THE MID 30S.

A COLD FRONT WILL BE CROSSING THE REGION FRIDAY. MODELS ARE NOT
CONSISTENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT WITH THE GFS BEING A BIT
FASTER. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT WITH THE
GREATEST THREAT OF RAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF FORECAST AREA
WITH A LESSER THREAT IN NEW HAMPSHIRE. TEMPS IN THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS WILL BE LIMITED BY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND MAY NOT REACH
60 DEGREES BEFORE STARTING TO COOL OFF AGAIN. SOUTH OF THE
MOUNTAINS...TEMPS WILL REACH THE 60S AND 70S PRIOR TO THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. AGAIN..ONSHORE FLOW WILL LIMIT TEMPS IN COASTAL AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE BIGGEST STORY IN THE EXTENDED COMES EARLY IN THE PERIOD.
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THRU THE REGION...WITH
SECONDARY...REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR TO ARRIVE LATE FRI/EARLY
SAT. TEMPS AT H8 WILL APPROACH 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL
BY EARLY SAT...WITH H9 TEMPS 2 SD BELOW NORMAL. BASED ON MODEL
FORECASTS H8 TEMPS OBSERVED AT 12Z SAT COULD BE SOME OF THE
COLDEST IN THE PERIOD OF RECORD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. MUCH LIKE
TONIGHT THE HIGH PRES WILL STILL BE BUILDING IN LATE FRI...MEANING
THAT THE GRADIENT WILL NOT ALLOW WINDS TO COMPLETELY DECOUPLE
EARLY ON. MAV GUIDANCE APPEARS TO BE WAY TOO COLD GIVEN A FORECAST
OF BOUNDARY LAYER STAYING AT LEAST PARTIALLY MIXED. DISCOUNTED LOW
20S FORECASTS FOR THE FAR N IN FAVOR OF A MORE REASONABLE UPPER
20S TO NEAR 30 FROM THE MET. STRENGTH OF THE FLOW EVEN SUGGESTS
SOME DOWNSLOPE WARMING IS POSSIBLE IN THE LEE OF THE MTNS...SO NOT
READY TO BITE ON NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING RIGHT TO THE COAST JUST
YET. HOWEVER IT DOES SEEM LIKELY THAT IT WILL AT LEAST BE AS COLD
AS CURRENT TEMPS TONIGHT...SO ANOTHER ROUND OF FROST/FREEZE
HEADLINES ARE LIKELY. IN ADDITION...UPPER LOW SWINGING ACROSS THE
AREA SHOULD LEAD TO SOME MTN SHOWERS. GIVEN FORECAST TEMPS
ALOFT...THOSE SHOWERS SHOULD BE OF THE FROZEN VARIETY.

WE RECOVER NICELY FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND...WITH MILDER TEMPS EXPECTED AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NWD
THRU THE NORTHEAST. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
THAT ANY COLD FRONT SUN WILL BE WEAKER AND JUST BRUSH THE
REGION...FOLLOWED BY WARM FRONT LIFTING THRU THE AREA RATHER THAN
STALLING TO THE S. THAT WILL KEEP THE THREAT FOR DIURNAL SHOWERS
IN THE FORECAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THRU THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. GUSTY WNW FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE SAT...WITH GUSTS AROUND
25 KTS POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINALS. WEAK COLD FRONT WILL TRY TO
CROSS THE AREA SUN...WITH WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS. WIDESPREAD VSBY
OR CIG RESTRICTIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME WITH THIS
FEATURE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WITH SW WINDS DEVELOPING...SEAS MAY APPROACH MINIMAL SCA
CRITERIA OFFSHORE TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY...OTHERWISE WINDS AND
SEAS BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

LONG TERM...CAA BEHIND COLD FRONT FRI WILL LEAD TO A PROBABLE
PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS ON THE WATERS SAT. THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK HIGH PRES WILL BE MORE IN
CONTROL...WITH WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY AND FRIDAY.
AFTERNOON MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL RANGE FROM 20 TO 35PERCENT
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE WITH WINDS GUSTING TO 15 TO 20 MPH.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
ES



000
FXUS61 KGYX 211432
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1032 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OFFSHORE TODAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL PASS WELL TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
SWING ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
THEN BUILDS IN OVER THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT LOOKS TO CROSS
THE AREA TO END THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...

1025 AM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO REFLECT CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS
AND TO INGEST THE 14Z MESONET INTO 1ST PERIOD GRIDS.

PREV DISC...
0645 UPDATE...ALL STATIONS IN OUR FORECAST AREA ARE NOW ABOVE
FREEZING AND WARMING. WILL BE ISSUING AN UPDATE SHORTLY TO DROP
FREEZE WARNINGS AND FROST ADVISORIES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD LEAD TO A PARTLY CLOUDY DAY ACROSS THE REGION
WITH AREAS OF CIRRUS PASSING OVERHEAD. AFTER A COLD START THIS
MORNING...TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND QUICKLY WITH HIGHS FROM THE
MID 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOW TO MID 70S IN SOUTHERN AREAS.
WINDS WILL TURN ONSHORE IN COASTAL AREAS THIS AFTERNOON LIMITING
WARMING TO THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
A SHORT WAVE PASSING THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT COMBINED WITH LOW
PASSING TO THE SOUTH WILL PRODUCE HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS
THE REGION WHICH WILL LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING. TEMPS SHOULD
REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING ALL AREAS..WITH ONLY COOS COUNTY REACHING AS
LOW AS THE MID 30S.

A COLD FRONT WILL BE CROSSING THE REGION FRIDAY. MODELS ARE NOT
CONSISTENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT WITH THE GFS BEING A BIT
FASTER. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT WITH THE
GREATEST THREAT OF RAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF FORECAST AREA
WITH A LESSER THREAT IN NEW HAMPSHIRE. TEMPS IN THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS WILL BE LIMITED BY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND MAY NOT REACH
60 DEGREES BEFORE STARTING TO COOL OFF AGAIN. SOUTH OF THE
MOUNTAINS...TEMPS WILL REACH THE 60S AND 70S PRIOR TO THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. AGAIN..ONSHORE FLOW WILL LIMIT TEMPS IN COASTAL AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE BIGGEST STORY IN THE EXTENDED COMES EARLY IN THE PERIOD.
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THRU THE REGION...WITH
SECONDARY...REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR TO ARRIVE LATE FRI/EARLY
SAT. TEMPS AT H8 WILL APPROACH 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL
BY EARLY SAT...WITH H9 TEMPS 2 SD BELOW NORMAL. BASED ON MODEL
FORECASTS H8 TEMPS OBSERVED AT 12Z SAT COULD BE SOME OF THE
COLDEST IN THE PERIOD OF RECORD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. MUCH LIKE
TONIGHT THE HIGH PRES WILL STILL BE BUILDING IN LATE FRI...MEANING
THAT THE GRADIENT WILL NOT ALLOW WINDS TO COMPLETELY DECOUPLE
EARLY ON. MAV GUIDANCE APPEARS TO BE WAY TOO COLD GIVEN A FORECAST
OF BOUNDARY LAYER STAYING AT LEAST PARTIALLY MIXED. DISCOUNTED LOW
20S FORECASTS FOR THE FAR N IN FAVOR OF A MORE REASONABLE UPPER
20S TO NEAR 30 FROM THE MET. STRENGTH OF THE FLOW EVEN SUGGESTS
SOME DOWNSLOPE WARMING IS POSSIBLE IN THE LEE OF THE MTNS...SO NOT
READY TO BITE ON NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING RIGHT TO THE COAST JUST
YET. HOWEVER IT DOES SEEM LIKELY THAT IT WILL AT LEAST BE AS COLD
AS CURRENT TEMPS TONIGHT...SO ANOTHER ROUND OF FROST/FREEZE
HEADLINES ARE LIKELY. IN ADDITION...UPPER LOW SWINGING ACROSS THE
AREA SHOULD LEAD TO SOME MTN SHOWERS. GIVEN FORECAST TEMPS
ALOFT...THOSE SHOWERS SHOULD BE OF THE FROZEN VARIETY.

WE RECOVER NICELY FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND...WITH MILDER TEMPS EXPECTED AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NWD
THRU THE NORTHEAST. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
THAT ANY COLD FRONT SUN WILL BE WEAKER AND JUST BRUSH THE
REGION...FOLLOWED BY WARM FRONT LIFTING THRU THE AREA RATHER THAN
STALLING TO THE S. THAT WILL KEEP THE THREAT FOR DIURNAL SHOWERS
IN THE FORECAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THRU THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. GUSTY WNW FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE SAT...WITH GUSTS AROUND
25 KTS POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINALS. WEAK COLD FRONT WILL TRY TO
CROSS THE AREA SUN...WITH WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS. WIDESPREAD VSBY
OR CIG RESTRICTIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME WITH THIS
FEATURE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WITH SW WINDS DEVELOPING...SEAS MAY APPROACH MINIMAL SCA
CRITERIA OFFSHORE TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY...OTHERWISE WINDS AND
SEAS BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

LONG TERM...CAA BEHIND COLD FRONT FRI WILL LEAD TO A PROBABLE
PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS ON THE WATERS SAT. THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK HIGH PRES WILL BE MORE IN
CONTROL...WITH WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY AND FRIDAY.
AFTERNOON MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL RANGE FROM 20 TO 35PERCENT
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE WITH WINDS GUSTING TO 15 TO 20 MPH.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
ES



000
FXUS61 KGYX 211432
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1032 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OFFSHORE TODAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL PASS WELL TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
SWING ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
THEN BUILDS IN OVER THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT LOOKS TO CROSS
THE AREA TO END THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...

1025 AM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO REFLECT CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS
AND TO INGEST THE 14Z MESONET INTO 1ST PERIOD GRIDS.

PREV DISC...
0645 UPDATE...ALL STATIONS IN OUR FORECAST AREA ARE NOW ABOVE
FREEZING AND WARMING. WILL BE ISSUING AN UPDATE SHORTLY TO DROP
FREEZE WARNINGS AND FROST ADVISORIES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD LEAD TO A PARTLY CLOUDY DAY ACROSS THE REGION
WITH AREAS OF CIRRUS PASSING OVERHEAD. AFTER A COLD START THIS
MORNING...TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND QUICKLY WITH HIGHS FROM THE
MID 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOW TO MID 70S IN SOUTHERN AREAS.
WINDS WILL TURN ONSHORE IN COASTAL AREAS THIS AFTERNOON LIMITING
WARMING TO THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
A SHORT WAVE PASSING THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT COMBINED WITH LOW
PASSING TO THE SOUTH WILL PRODUCE HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS
THE REGION WHICH WILL LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING. TEMPS SHOULD
REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING ALL AREAS..WITH ONLY COOS COUNTY REACHING AS
LOW AS THE MID 30S.

A COLD FRONT WILL BE CROSSING THE REGION FRIDAY. MODELS ARE NOT
CONSISTENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT WITH THE GFS BEING A BIT
FASTER. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT WITH THE
GREATEST THREAT OF RAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF FORECAST AREA
WITH A LESSER THREAT IN NEW HAMPSHIRE. TEMPS IN THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS WILL BE LIMITED BY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND MAY NOT REACH
60 DEGREES BEFORE STARTING TO COOL OFF AGAIN. SOUTH OF THE
MOUNTAINS...TEMPS WILL REACH THE 60S AND 70S PRIOR TO THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. AGAIN..ONSHORE FLOW WILL LIMIT TEMPS IN COASTAL AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE BIGGEST STORY IN THE EXTENDED COMES EARLY IN THE PERIOD.
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THRU THE REGION...WITH
SECONDARY...REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR TO ARRIVE LATE FRI/EARLY
SAT. TEMPS AT H8 WILL APPROACH 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL
BY EARLY SAT...WITH H9 TEMPS 2 SD BELOW NORMAL. BASED ON MODEL
FORECASTS H8 TEMPS OBSERVED AT 12Z SAT COULD BE SOME OF THE
COLDEST IN THE PERIOD OF RECORD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. MUCH LIKE
TONIGHT THE HIGH PRES WILL STILL BE BUILDING IN LATE FRI...MEANING
THAT THE GRADIENT WILL NOT ALLOW WINDS TO COMPLETELY DECOUPLE
EARLY ON. MAV GUIDANCE APPEARS TO BE WAY TOO COLD GIVEN A FORECAST
OF BOUNDARY LAYER STAYING AT LEAST PARTIALLY MIXED. DISCOUNTED LOW
20S FORECASTS FOR THE FAR N IN FAVOR OF A MORE REASONABLE UPPER
20S TO NEAR 30 FROM THE MET. STRENGTH OF THE FLOW EVEN SUGGESTS
SOME DOWNSLOPE WARMING IS POSSIBLE IN THE LEE OF THE MTNS...SO NOT
READY TO BITE ON NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING RIGHT TO THE COAST JUST
YET. HOWEVER IT DOES SEEM LIKELY THAT IT WILL AT LEAST BE AS COLD
AS CURRENT TEMPS TONIGHT...SO ANOTHER ROUND OF FROST/FREEZE
HEADLINES ARE LIKELY. IN ADDITION...UPPER LOW SWINGING ACROSS THE
AREA SHOULD LEAD TO SOME MTN SHOWERS. GIVEN FORECAST TEMPS
ALOFT...THOSE SHOWERS SHOULD BE OF THE FROZEN VARIETY.

WE RECOVER NICELY FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND...WITH MILDER TEMPS EXPECTED AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NWD
THRU THE NORTHEAST. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
THAT ANY COLD FRONT SUN WILL BE WEAKER AND JUST BRUSH THE
REGION...FOLLOWED BY WARM FRONT LIFTING THRU THE AREA RATHER THAN
STALLING TO THE S. THAT WILL KEEP THE THREAT FOR DIURNAL SHOWERS
IN THE FORECAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THRU THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. GUSTY WNW FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE SAT...WITH GUSTS AROUND
25 KTS POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINALS. WEAK COLD FRONT WILL TRY TO
CROSS THE AREA SUN...WITH WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS. WIDESPREAD VSBY
OR CIG RESTRICTIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME WITH THIS
FEATURE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WITH SW WINDS DEVELOPING...SEAS MAY APPROACH MINIMAL SCA
CRITERIA OFFSHORE TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY...OTHERWISE WINDS AND
SEAS BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

LONG TERM...CAA BEHIND COLD FRONT FRI WILL LEAD TO A PROBABLE
PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS ON THE WATERS SAT. THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK HIGH PRES WILL BE MORE IN
CONTROL...WITH WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY AND FRIDAY.
AFTERNOON MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL RANGE FROM 20 TO 35PERCENT
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE WITH WINDS GUSTING TO 15 TO 20 MPH.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
ES



000
FXUS61 KCAR 211312
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
912 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH WILL MOVE EAST TODAY. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM CUBIC LATER TONIGHT AND MOVING THROUGH
THE REGION ON FRIDAYS WITH SHOWERS FOR THE REGION. CONDITIONS
WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED INTO STUART AN UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION FROM CANAD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
910 AM UPDATE...THE FORECAST IS STILL PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK. MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS HAVE COME IN A BIT FASTER THAN PREVIOUSLY
ANTICIPATED, SO HAVE ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY. THE LATEST HRRR
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT THERE WILL BE ISOLATED TO
PERHAPS EVEN SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON, WITH SOME ACTIVITY
MAKING IT ALL THE WAY TO BANGOR, ELLSWORTH, AND EVEN MACHIAS. MOST
OF THE OTHER MODELS ARE NOT NEARLY AS GENEROUS WITH THE PRECIP AND
KEEP IT MUCH FURTHER NORTH. BUT THE HRRR DID VERY WELL WITH THE
SHOWERS THAT DEVELOPED YESTERDAY, SO WENT AHEAD AND ADDED ISOLATED
AFTERNOON SHOWERS FOR EVERYWHERE BASICALLY NORTH OF BANGOR. NO
OTHER CHANGES WERE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TODAY AS ANOTHER
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIDES TOWARDS THE REGION. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE
SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS FORECAST BY THE NAM AND GFS TO
SWINGS ACROSS THE REGION. LLVL CONVERGENCE IN THE WESTERN AREAS
COMBINED W/SOME WEAK MID LEVEL FORCING COULD ALLOW FOR A FEW
SHOWERS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. DECIDED TO TAKE A CONSENSUS
APCH(NAM/GFS AND HRRR 3KM) AND BROUGHT 20-30% POPS INTO THE WNW
AREAS A BIT EARLIER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. THE REST OF THE CWA
WILL REMAIN DRY. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE
LOW/MID 60S NORTH AND WEST TO THE UPPER 60S CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST.

A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ON THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND MOVE NE ACROSS NW MAINE. SHOWERS ARE
FORECAST TO MOVE INTO NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS OVERNIGHT. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT(<.05"). TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE
WARMER THAN THEY WERE THIS MORNING HOLDING IN THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK EAST OF THE GULF OF MAINE DURING FRIDAY.
STEADY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW SHOULD REMAIN TO THE EAST OF
THE STATE. HOWEVER, SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER
LOW FROM THE NORTHWEST AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT CAN BE EXPECTED ON
FRIDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE DOWN EAST COAST EARLY
FRIDAY EVENING WITH ANY LINGERING SHOWERS PUSHING OFFSHORE.
NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL USHER IN COLDER AIR FRIDAY
NIGHT. 850MB TEMPS FALL TO AROUND -5C BY 12Z SATURDAY WITH 925 MB
TEMPS DOWN TO AROUND 0C. WITH THE COLD AIR ALOFT WE COULD SEE A
FEW SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AS THE 500 MB LOW TRACKS
ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ON SATURDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE REMAINS TO OUR NORTHEAST AND A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS EAST. SKIES WILL BE PARTLY SUNNY ACROSS NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL AREAS WITH THE CHANCE OF A SHOWER AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES DOWN EAST. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE BELOW NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID TO
UPPER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY
EVENING AND CROSS THE REGION LATER SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO EARLY
SUNDAY. EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
THE CHANCE FOR A SHOWER MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. HIGHS ON
SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 60S NORTH AND CENTRAL AND
UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 DOWN EAST. EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES SUNDAY
NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A MAINLY SUNNY AND WARM MEMORIAL DAY. CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT WITH A FEW SHOWERS EXPECTED AS WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST TOWARD THE REGION. EXPECT A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AN ISLD TSTM TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY IN ADVANCE
OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL
AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT FOR ALL TERMINALS.

SHORT TERM: VFR BUT MVFR IN ANY RAIN SHOWERS FRIDAY AND RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HEADLINES THROUGH TONIGHT. SEAS ARE TO REMAIN 2 TO 3
FT INTO TONIGHT W/WINDS 10 TO 15 KTS.

SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS MAY REACH SCA LEVELS FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HASTINGS/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...HASTINGS/HEWITT/DUDA
MARINE...HASTINGS/HEWITT/DUDA



000
FXUS61 KCAR 211312
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
912 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH WILL MOVE EAST TODAY. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM CUBIC LATER TONIGHT AND MOVING THROUGH
THE REGION ON FRIDAYS WITH SHOWERS FOR THE REGION. CONDITIONS
WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED INTO STUART AN UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION FROM CANAD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
910 AM UPDATE...THE FORECAST IS STILL PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK. MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS HAVE COME IN A BIT FASTER THAN PREVIOUSLY
ANTICIPATED, SO HAVE ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY. THE LATEST HRRR
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT THERE WILL BE ISOLATED TO
PERHAPS EVEN SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON, WITH SOME ACTIVITY
MAKING IT ALL THE WAY TO BANGOR, ELLSWORTH, AND EVEN MACHIAS. MOST
OF THE OTHER MODELS ARE NOT NEARLY AS GENEROUS WITH THE PRECIP AND
KEEP IT MUCH FURTHER NORTH. BUT THE HRRR DID VERY WELL WITH THE
SHOWERS THAT DEVELOPED YESTERDAY, SO WENT AHEAD AND ADDED ISOLATED
AFTERNOON SHOWERS FOR EVERYWHERE BASICALLY NORTH OF BANGOR. NO
OTHER CHANGES WERE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TODAY AS ANOTHER
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIDES TOWARDS THE REGION. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE
SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS FORECAST BY THE NAM AND GFS TO
SWINGS ACROSS THE REGION. LLVL CONVERGENCE IN THE WESTERN AREAS
COMBINED W/SOME WEAK MID LEVEL FORCING COULD ALLOW FOR A FEW
SHOWERS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. DECIDED TO TAKE A CONSENSUS
APCH(NAM/GFS AND HRRR 3KM) AND BROUGHT 20-30% POPS INTO THE WNW
AREAS A BIT EARLIER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. THE REST OF THE CWA
WILL REMAIN DRY. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE
LOW/MID 60S NORTH AND WEST TO THE UPPER 60S CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST.

A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ON THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND MOVE NE ACROSS NW MAINE. SHOWERS ARE
FORECAST TO MOVE INTO NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS OVERNIGHT. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT(<.05"). TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE
WARMER THAN THEY WERE THIS MORNING HOLDING IN THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK EAST OF THE GULF OF MAINE DURING FRIDAY.
STEADY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW SHOULD REMAIN TO THE EAST OF
THE STATE. HOWEVER, SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER
LOW FROM THE NORTHWEST AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT CAN BE EXPECTED ON
FRIDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE DOWN EAST COAST EARLY
FRIDAY EVENING WITH ANY LINGERING SHOWERS PUSHING OFFSHORE.
NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL USHER IN COLDER AIR FRIDAY
NIGHT. 850MB TEMPS FALL TO AROUND -5C BY 12Z SATURDAY WITH 925 MB
TEMPS DOWN TO AROUND 0C. WITH THE COLD AIR ALOFT WE COULD SEE A
FEW SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AS THE 500 MB LOW TRACKS
ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ON SATURDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE REMAINS TO OUR NORTHEAST AND A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS EAST. SKIES WILL BE PARTLY SUNNY ACROSS NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL AREAS WITH THE CHANCE OF A SHOWER AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES DOWN EAST. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE BELOW NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID TO
UPPER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY
EVENING AND CROSS THE REGION LATER SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO EARLY
SUNDAY. EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
THE CHANCE FOR A SHOWER MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. HIGHS ON
SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 60S NORTH AND CENTRAL AND
UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 DOWN EAST. EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES SUNDAY
NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A MAINLY SUNNY AND WARM MEMORIAL DAY. CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT WITH A FEW SHOWERS EXPECTED AS WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST TOWARD THE REGION. EXPECT A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AN ISLD TSTM TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY IN ADVANCE
OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL
AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT FOR ALL TERMINALS.

SHORT TERM: VFR BUT MVFR IN ANY RAIN SHOWERS FRIDAY AND RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HEADLINES THROUGH TONIGHT. SEAS ARE TO REMAIN 2 TO 3
FT INTO TONIGHT W/WINDS 10 TO 15 KTS.

SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS MAY REACH SCA LEVELS FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HASTINGS/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...HASTINGS/HEWITT/DUDA
MARINE...HASTINGS/HEWITT/DUDA



000
FXUS61 KCAR 211312
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
912 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH WILL MOVE EAST TODAY. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM CUBIC LATER TONIGHT AND MOVING THROUGH
THE REGION ON FRIDAYS WITH SHOWERS FOR THE REGION. CONDITIONS
WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED INTO STUART AN UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION FROM CANAD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
910 AM UPDATE...THE FORECAST IS STILL PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK. MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS HAVE COME IN A BIT FASTER THAN PREVIOUSLY
ANTICIPATED, SO HAVE ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY. THE LATEST HRRR
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT THERE WILL BE ISOLATED TO
PERHAPS EVEN SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON, WITH SOME ACTIVITY
MAKING IT ALL THE WAY TO BANGOR, ELLSWORTH, AND EVEN MACHIAS. MOST
OF THE OTHER MODELS ARE NOT NEARLY AS GENEROUS WITH THE PRECIP AND
KEEP IT MUCH FURTHER NORTH. BUT THE HRRR DID VERY WELL WITH THE
SHOWERS THAT DEVELOPED YESTERDAY, SO WENT AHEAD AND ADDED ISOLATED
AFTERNOON SHOWERS FOR EVERYWHERE BASICALLY NORTH OF BANGOR. NO
OTHER CHANGES WERE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TODAY AS ANOTHER
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIDES TOWARDS THE REGION. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE
SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS FORECAST BY THE NAM AND GFS TO
SWINGS ACROSS THE REGION. LLVL CONVERGENCE IN THE WESTERN AREAS
COMBINED W/SOME WEAK MID LEVEL FORCING COULD ALLOW FOR A FEW
SHOWERS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. DECIDED TO TAKE A CONSENSUS
APCH(NAM/GFS AND HRRR 3KM) AND BROUGHT 20-30% POPS INTO THE WNW
AREAS A BIT EARLIER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. THE REST OF THE CWA
WILL REMAIN DRY. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE
LOW/MID 60S NORTH AND WEST TO THE UPPER 60S CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST.

A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ON THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND MOVE NE ACROSS NW MAINE. SHOWERS ARE
FORECAST TO MOVE INTO NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS OVERNIGHT. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT(<.05"). TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE
WARMER THAN THEY WERE THIS MORNING HOLDING IN THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK EAST OF THE GULF OF MAINE DURING FRIDAY.
STEADY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW SHOULD REMAIN TO THE EAST OF
THE STATE. HOWEVER, SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER
LOW FROM THE NORTHWEST AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT CAN BE EXPECTED ON
FRIDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE DOWN EAST COAST EARLY
FRIDAY EVENING WITH ANY LINGERING SHOWERS PUSHING OFFSHORE.
NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL USHER IN COLDER AIR FRIDAY
NIGHT. 850MB TEMPS FALL TO AROUND -5C BY 12Z SATURDAY WITH 925 MB
TEMPS DOWN TO AROUND 0C. WITH THE COLD AIR ALOFT WE COULD SEE A
FEW SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AS THE 500 MB LOW TRACKS
ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ON SATURDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE REMAINS TO OUR NORTHEAST AND A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS EAST. SKIES WILL BE PARTLY SUNNY ACROSS NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL AREAS WITH THE CHANCE OF A SHOWER AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES DOWN EAST. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE BELOW NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID TO
UPPER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY
EVENING AND CROSS THE REGION LATER SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO EARLY
SUNDAY. EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
THE CHANCE FOR A SHOWER MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. HIGHS ON
SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 60S NORTH AND CENTRAL AND
UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 DOWN EAST. EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES SUNDAY
NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A MAINLY SUNNY AND WARM MEMORIAL DAY. CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT WITH A FEW SHOWERS EXPECTED AS WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST TOWARD THE REGION. EXPECT A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AN ISLD TSTM TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY IN ADVANCE
OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL
AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT FOR ALL TERMINALS.

SHORT TERM: VFR BUT MVFR IN ANY RAIN SHOWERS FRIDAY AND RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HEADLINES THROUGH TONIGHT. SEAS ARE TO REMAIN 2 TO 3
FT INTO TONIGHT W/WINDS 10 TO 15 KTS.

SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS MAY REACH SCA LEVELS FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HASTINGS/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...HASTINGS/HEWITT/DUDA
MARINE...HASTINGS/HEWITT/DUDA



000
FXUS61 KCAR 211312
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
912 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH WILL MOVE EAST TODAY. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM CUBIC LATER TONIGHT AND MOVING THROUGH
THE REGION ON FRIDAYS WITH SHOWERS FOR THE REGION. CONDITIONS
WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED INTO STUART AN UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION FROM CANAD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
910 AM UPDATE...THE FORECAST IS STILL PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK. MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS HAVE COME IN A BIT FASTER THAN PREVIOUSLY
ANTICIPATED, SO HAVE ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY. THE LATEST HRRR
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT THERE WILL BE ISOLATED TO
PERHAPS EVEN SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON, WITH SOME ACTIVITY
MAKING IT ALL THE WAY TO BANGOR, ELLSWORTH, AND EVEN MACHIAS. MOST
OF THE OTHER MODELS ARE NOT NEARLY AS GENEROUS WITH THE PRECIP AND
KEEP IT MUCH FURTHER NORTH. BUT THE HRRR DID VERY WELL WITH THE
SHOWERS THAT DEVELOPED YESTERDAY, SO WENT AHEAD AND ADDED ISOLATED
AFTERNOON SHOWERS FOR EVERYWHERE BASICALLY NORTH OF BANGOR. NO
OTHER CHANGES WERE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TODAY AS ANOTHER
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIDES TOWARDS THE REGION. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE
SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS FORECAST BY THE NAM AND GFS TO
SWINGS ACROSS THE REGION. LLVL CONVERGENCE IN THE WESTERN AREAS
COMBINED W/SOME WEAK MID LEVEL FORCING COULD ALLOW FOR A FEW
SHOWERS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. DECIDED TO TAKE A CONSENSUS
APCH(NAM/GFS AND HRRR 3KM) AND BROUGHT 20-30% POPS INTO THE WNW
AREAS A BIT EARLIER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. THE REST OF THE CWA
WILL REMAIN DRY. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE
LOW/MID 60S NORTH AND WEST TO THE UPPER 60S CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST.

A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ON THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND MOVE NE ACROSS NW MAINE. SHOWERS ARE
FORECAST TO MOVE INTO NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS OVERNIGHT. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT(<.05"). TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE
WARMER THAN THEY WERE THIS MORNING HOLDING IN THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK EAST OF THE GULF OF MAINE DURING FRIDAY.
STEADY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW SHOULD REMAIN TO THE EAST OF
THE STATE. HOWEVER, SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER
LOW FROM THE NORTHWEST AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT CAN BE EXPECTED ON
FRIDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE DOWN EAST COAST EARLY
FRIDAY EVENING WITH ANY LINGERING SHOWERS PUSHING OFFSHORE.
NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL USHER IN COLDER AIR FRIDAY
NIGHT. 850MB TEMPS FALL TO AROUND -5C BY 12Z SATURDAY WITH 925 MB
TEMPS DOWN TO AROUND 0C. WITH THE COLD AIR ALOFT WE COULD SEE A
FEW SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AS THE 500 MB LOW TRACKS
ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ON SATURDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE REMAINS TO OUR NORTHEAST AND A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS EAST. SKIES WILL BE PARTLY SUNNY ACROSS NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL AREAS WITH THE CHANCE OF A SHOWER AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES DOWN EAST. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE BELOW NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID TO
UPPER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY
EVENING AND CROSS THE REGION LATER SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO EARLY
SUNDAY. EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
THE CHANCE FOR A SHOWER MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. HIGHS ON
SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 60S NORTH AND CENTRAL AND
UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 DOWN EAST. EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES SUNDAY
NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A MAINLY SUNNY AND WARM MEMORIAL DAY. CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT WITH A FEW SHOWERS EXPECTED AS WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST TOWARD THE REGION. EXPECT A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AN ISLD TSTM TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY IN ADVANCE
OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL
AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT FOR ALL TERMINALS.

SHORT TERM: VFR BUT MVFR IN ANY RAIN SHOWERS FRIDAY AND RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HEADLINES THROUGH TONIGHT. SEAS ARE TO REMAIN 2 TO 3
FT INTO TONIGHT W/WINDS 10 TO 15 KTS.

SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS MAY REACH SCA LEVELS FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HASTINGS/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...HASTINGS/HEWITT/DUDA
MARINE...HASTINGS/HEWITT/DUDA



000
FXUS61 KCAR 211104
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
704 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH WILL MOVE EAST TODAY. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM CUBIC LATER TONIGHT AND MOVING THROUGH
THE REGION ON FRIDAYS WITH SHOWERS FOR THE REGION. CONDITIONS
WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED INTO STUART AN UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION FROM CANAD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
7 AM UPDATE: 09Z SATE IMAGERY SHOWED MID/HIGH CLOUDS MOVING ENE
IN ASSOCIATION W/AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN NY AND
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. MOST OF THE METERS SHOWED THE HIGH CLOUDS TO
BE THIN. SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO WARM AFTER A CHILLY
START. WINDS WILL PICK UP BY MID MORNING BACKING TO SW BY THE AFTERNOON.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TODAY AS ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIDES
TOWARDS THE REGION. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE SEEN IN WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY IS FORECAST BY THE NAM AND GFS TO SWINGS ACROSS THE
REGION. LLVL CONVERGENCE IN THE WESTERN AREAS COMBINED W/SOME WEAK
MID LEVEL FORCING COULD ALLOW FOR A FEW SHOWERS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. DECIDED TO TAKE A CONSENSUS APCH(NAM/GFS AND HRRR 3KM)
AND BROUGHT 20-30% POPS INTO THE WNW AREAS A BIT EARLIER THAN
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. THE REST OF THE CWA WILL REMAIN DRY. DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE LOW/MID 60S NORTH AND WEST
TO THE UPPER 60S CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST.

A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ON THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND MOVE NE ACROSS NW MAINE. SHOWERS ARE
FORECAST TO MOVE INTO NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS OVERNIGHT. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT(<.05"). TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE
WARMER THAN THEY WERE THIS MORNING HOLDING IN THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK EAST OF THE GULF OF MAINE DURING FRIDAY.
STEADY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW SHOULD REMAIN TO THE EAST OF
THE STATE. HOWEVER, SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER
LOW FROM THE NORTHWEST AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT CAN BE EXPECTED ON
FRIDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE DOWN EAST COAST EARLY
FRIDAY EVENING WITH ANY LINGERING SHOWERS PUSHING OFFSHORE.
NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL USHER IN COLDER AIR FRIDAY
NIGHT. 850MB TEMPS FALL TO AROUND -5C BY 12Z SATURDAY WITH 925 MB
TEMPS DOWN TO AROUND 0C. WITH THE COLD AIR ALOFT WE COULD SEE A
FEW SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AS THE 500 MB LOW TRACKS
ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ON SATURDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE REMAINS TO OUR NORTHEAST AND A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS EAST. SKIES WILL BE PARTLY SUNNY ACROSS NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL AREAS WITH THE CHANCE OF A SHOWER AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES DOWN EAST. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE BELOW NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID TO
UPPER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY
EVENING AND CROSS THE REGION LATER SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO EARLY
SUNDAY. EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
THE CHANCE FOR A SHOWER MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. HIGHS ON
SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 60S NORTH AND CENTRAL AND
UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 DOWN EAST. EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES SUNDAY
NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A MAINLY SUNNY AND WARM MEMORIAL DAY. CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT WITH A FEW SHOWERS EXPECTED AS WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST TOWARD THE REGION. EXPECT A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AN ISLD TSTM TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY IN ADVANCE
OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL
AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT FOR ALL TERMINALS.

SHORT TERM: VFR BUT MVFR IN ANY RAIN SHOWERS FRIDAY AND RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HEADLINES THROUGH TONIGHT. SEAS ARE TO REMAIN 2 TO 3
FT INTO TONIGHT W/WINDS 10 TO 15 KTS.

SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS MAY REACH SCA LEVELS FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HEWITT
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...HEWITT/DUDA
MARINE...HEWITT/DUDA




000
FXUS61 KCAR 211104
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
704 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH WILL MOVE EAST TODAY. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM CUBIC LATER TONIGHT AND MOVING THROUGH
THE REGION ON FRIDAYS WITH SHOWERS FOR THE REGION. CONDITIONS
WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED INTO STUART AN UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION FROM CANAD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
7 AM UPDATE: 09Z SATE IMAGERY SHOWED MID/HIGH CLOUDS MOVING ENE
IN ASSOCIATION W/AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN NY AND
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. MOST OF THE METERS SHOWED THE HIGH CLOUDS TO
BE THIN. SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO WARM AFTER A CHILLY
START. WINDS WILL PICK UP BY MID MORNING BACKING TO SW BY THE AFTERNOON.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TODAY AS ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIDES
TOWARDS THE REGION. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE SEEN IN WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY IS FORECAST BY THE NAM AND GFS TO SWINGS ACROSS THE
REGION. LLVL CONVERGENCE IN THE WESTERN AREAS COMBINED W/SOME WEAK
MID LEVEL FORCING COULD ALLOW FOR A FEW SHOWERS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. DECIDED TO TAKE A CONSENSUS APCH(NAM/GFS AND HRRR 3KM)
AND BROUGHT 20-30% POPS INTO THE WNW AREAS A BIT EARLIER THAN
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. THE REST OF THE CWA WILL REMAIN DRY. DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE LOW/MID 60S NORTH AND WEST
TO THE UPPER 60S CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST.

A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ON THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND MOVE NE ACROSS NW MAINE. SHOWERS ARE
FORECAST TO MOVE INTO NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS OVERNIGHT. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT(<.05"). TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE
WARMER THAN THEY WERE THIS MORNING HOLDING IN THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK EAST OF THE GULF OF MAINE DURING FRIDAY.
STEADY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW SHOULD REMAIN TO THE EAST OF
THE STATE. HOWEVER, SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER
LOW FROM THE NORTHWEST AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT CAN BE EXPECTED ON
FRIDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE DOWN EAST COAST EARLY
FRIDAY EVENING WITH ANY LINGERING SHOWERS PUSHING OFFSHORE.
NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL USHER IN COLDER AIR FRIDAY
NIGHT. 850MB TEMPS FALL TO AROUND -5C BY 12Z SATURDAY WITH 925 MB
TEMPS DOWN TO AROUND 0C. WITH THE COLD AIR ALOFT WE COULD SEE A
FEW SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AS THE 500 MB LOW TRACKS
ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ON SATURDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE REMAINS TO OUR NORTHEAST AND A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS EAST. SKIES WILL BE PARTLY SUNNY ACROSS NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL AREAS WITH THE CHANCE OF A SHOWER AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES DOWN EAST. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE BELOW NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID TO
UPPER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY
EVENING AND CROSS THE REGION LATER SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO EARLY
SUNDAY. EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
THE CHANCE FOR A SHOWER MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. HIGHS ON
SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 60S NORTH AND CENTRAL AND
UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 DOWN EAST. EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES SUNDAY
NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A MAINLY SUNNY AND WARM MEMORIAL DAY. CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT WITH A FEW SHOWERS EXPECTED AS WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST TOWARD THE REGION. EXPECT A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AN ISLD TSTM TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY IN ADVANCE
OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL
AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT FOR ALL TERMINALS.

SHORT TERM: VFR BUT MVFR IN ANY RAIN SHOWERS FRIDAY AND RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HEADLINES THROUGH TONIGHT. SEAS ARE TO REMAIN 2 TO 3
FT INTO TONIGHT W/WINDS 10 TO 15 KTS.

SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS MAY REACH SCA LEVELS FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HEWITT
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...HEWITT/DUDA
MARINE...HEWITT/DUDA




000
FXUS61 KCAR 211104
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
704 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH WILL MOVE EAST TODAY. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM CUBIC LATER TONIGHT AND MOVING THROUGH
THE REGION ON FRIDAYS WITH SHOWERS FOR THE REGION. CONDITIONS
WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED INTO STUART AN UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION FROM CANAD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
7 AM UPDATE: 09Z SATE IMAGERY SHOWED MID/HIGH CLOUDS MOVING ENE
IN ASSOCIATION W/AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN NY AND
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. MOST OF THE METERS SHOWED THE HIGH CLOUDS TO
BE THIN. SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO WARM AFTER A CHILLY
START. WINDS WILL PICK UP BY MID MORNING BACKING TO SW BY THE AFTERNOON.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TODAY AS ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIDES
TOWARDS THE REGION. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE SEEN IN WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY IS FORECAST BY THE NAM AND GFS TO SWINGS ACROSS THE
REGION. LLVL CONVERGENCE IN THE WESTERN AREAS COMBINED W/SOME WEAK
MID LEVEL FORCING COULD ALLOW FOR A FEW SHOWERS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. DECIDED TO TAKE A CONSENSUS APCH(NAM/GFS AND HRRR 3KM)
AND BROUGHT 20-30% POPS INTO THE WNW AREAS A BIT EARLIER THAN
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. THE REST OF THE CWA WILL REMAIN DRY. DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE LOW/MID 60S NORTH AND WEST
TO THE UPPER 60S CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST.

A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ON THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND MOVE NE ACROSS NW MAINE. SHOWERS ARE
FORECAST TO MOVE INTO NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS OVERNIGHT. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT(<.05"). TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE
WARMER THAN THEY WERE THIS MORNING HOLDING IN THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK EAST OF THE GULF OF MAINE DURING FRIDAY.
STEADY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW SHOULD REMAIN TO THE EAST OF
THE STATE. HOWEVER, SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER
LOW FROM THE NORTHWEST AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT CAN BE EXPECTED ON
FRIDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE DOWN EAST COAST EARLY
FRIDAY EVENING WITH ANY LINGERING SHOWERS PUSHING OFFSHORE.
NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL USHER IN COLDER AIR FRIDAY
NIGHT. 850MB TEMPS FALL TO AROUND -5C BY 12Z SATURDAY WITH 925 MB
TEMPS DOWN TO AROUND 0C. WITH THE COLD AIR ALOFT WE COULD SEE A
FEW SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AS THE 500 MB LOW TRACKS
ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ON SATURDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE REMAINS TO OUR NORTHEAST AND A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS EAST. SKIES WILL BE PARTLY SUNNY ACROSS NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL AREAS WITH THE CHANCE OF A SHOWER AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES DOWN EAST. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE BELOW NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID TO
UPPER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY
EVENING AND CROSS THE REGION LATER SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO EARLY
SUNDAY. EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
THE CHANCE FOR A SHOWER MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. HIGHS ON
SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 60S NORTH AND CENTRAL AND
UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 DOWN EAST. EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES SUNDAY
NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A MAINLY SUNNY AND WARM MEMORIAL DAY. CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT WITH A FEW SHOWERS EXPECTED AS WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST TOWARD THE REGION. EXPECT A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AN ISLD TSTM TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY IN ADVANCE
OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL
AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT FOR ALL TERMINALS.

SHORT TERM: VFR BUT MVFR IN ANY RAIN SHOWERS FRIDAY AND RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HEADLINES THROUGH TONIGHT. SEAS ARE TO REMAIN 2 TO 3
FT INTO TONIGHT W/WINDS 10 TO 15 KTS.

SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS MAY REACH SCA LEVELS FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HEWITT
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...HEWITT/DUDA
MARINE...HEWITT/DUDA




000
FXUS61 KCAR 211104
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
704 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH WILL MOVE EAST TODAY. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM CUBIC LATER TONIGHT AND MOVING THROUGH
THE REGION ON FRIDAYS WITH SHOWERS FOR THE REGION. CONDITIONS
WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED INTO STUART AN UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION FROM CANAD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
7 AM UPDATE: 09Z SATE IMAGERY SHOWED MID/HIGH CLOUDS MOVING ENE
IN ASSOCIATION W/AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN NY AND
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. MOST OF THE METERS SHOWED THE HIGH CLOUDS TO
BE THIN. SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO WARM AFTER A CHILLY
START. WINDS WILL PICK UP BY MID MORNING BACKING TO SW BY THE AFTERNOON.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TODAY AS ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIDES
TOWARDS THE REGION. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE SEEN IN WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY IS FORECAST BY THE NAM AND GFS TO SWINGS ACROSS THE
REGION. LLVL CONVERGENCE IN THE WESTERN AREAS COMBINED W/SOME WEAK
MID LEVEL FORCING COULD ALLOW FOR A FEW SHOWERS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. DECIDED TO TAKE A CONSENSUS APCH(NAM/GFS AND HRRR 3KM)
AND BROUGHT 20-30% POPS INTO THE WNW AREAS A BIT EARLIER THAN
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. THE REST OF THE CWA WILL REMAIN DRY. DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE LOW/MID 60S NORTH AND WEST
TO THE UPPER 60S CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST.

A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ON THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND MOVE NE ACROSS NW MAINE. SHOWERS ARE
FORECAST TO MOVE INTO NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS OVERNIGHT. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT(<.05"). TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE
WARMER THAN THEY WERE THIS MORNING HOLDING IN THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK EAST OF THE GULF OF MAINE DURING FRIDAY.
STEADY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW SHOULD REMAIN TO THE EAST OF
THE STATE. HOWEVER, SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER
LOW FROM THE NORTHWEST AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT CAN BE EXPECTED ON
FRIDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE DOWN EAST COAST EARLY
FRIDAY EVENING WITH ANY LINGERING SHOWERS PUSHING OFFSHORE.
NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL USHER IN COLDER AIR FRIDAY
NIGHT. 850MB TEMPS FALL TO AROUND -5C BY 12Z SATURDAY WITH 925 MB
TEMPS DOWN TO AROUND 0C. WITH THE COLD AIR ALOFT WE COULD SEE A
FEW SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AS THE 500 MB LOW TRACKS
ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ON SATURDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE REMAINS TO OUR NORTHEAST AND A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS EAST. SKIES WILL BE PARTLY SUNNY ACROSS NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL AREAS WITH THE CHANCE OF A SHOWER AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES DOWN EAST. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE BELOW NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID TO
UPPER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY
EVENING AND CROSS THE REGION LATER SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO EARLY
SUNDAY. EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
THE CHANCE FOR A SHOWER MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. HIGHS ON
SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 60S NORTH AND CENTRAL AND
UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 DOWN EAST. EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES SUNDAY
NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A MAINLY SUNNY AND WARM MEMORIAL DAY. CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT WITH A FEW SHOWERS EXPECTED AS WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST TOWARD THE REGION. EXPECT A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AN ISLD TSTM TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY IN ADVANCE
OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL
AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT FOR ALL TERMINALS.

SHORT TERM: VFR BUT MVFR IN ANY RAIN SHOWERS FRIDAY AND RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HEADLINES THROUGH TONIGHT. SEAS ARE TO REMAIN 2 TO 3
FT INTO TONIGHT W/WINDS 10 TO 15 KTS.

SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS MAY REACH SCA LEVELS FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HEWITT
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...HEWITT/DUDA
MARINE...HEWITT/DUDA




000
FXUS61 KCAR 211104
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
704 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH WILL MOVE EAST TODAY. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM CUBIC LATER TONIGHT AND MOVING THROUGH
THE REGION ON FRIDAYS WITH SHOWERS FOR THE REGION. CONDITIONS
WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED INTO STUART AN UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION FROM CANAD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
7 AM UPDATE: 09Z SATE IMAGERY SHOWED MID/HIGH CLOUDS MOVING ENE
IN ASSOCIATION W/AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN NY AND
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. MOST OF THE METERS SHOWED THE HIGH CLOUDS TO
BE THIN. SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO WARM AFTER A CHILLY
START. WINDS WILL PICK UP BY MID MORNING BACKING TO SW BY THE AFTERNOON.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TODAY AS ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIDES
TOWARDS THE REGION. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE SEEN IN WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY IS FORECAST BY THE NAM AND GFS TO SWINGS ACROSS THE
REGION. LLVL CONVERGENCE IN THE WESTERN AREAS COMBINED W/SOME WEAK
MID LEVEL FORCING COULD ALLOW FOR A FEW SHOWERS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. DECIDED TO TAKE A CONSENSUS APCH(NAM/GFS AND HRRR 3KM)
AND BROUGHT 20-30% POPS INTO THE WNW AREAS A BIT EARLIER THAN
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. THE REST OF THE CWA WILL REMAIN DRY. DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE LOW/MID 60S NORTH AND WEST
TO THE UPPER 60S CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST.

A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ON THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND MOVE NE ACROSS NW MAINE. SHOWERS ARE
FORECAST TO MOVE INTO NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS OVERNIGHT. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT(<.05"). TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE
WARMER THAN THEY WERE THIS MORNING HOLDING IN THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK EAST OF THE GULF OF MAINE DURING FRIDAY.
STEADY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW SHOULD REMAIN TO THE EAST OF
THE STATE. HOWEVER, SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER
LOW FROM THE NORTHWEST AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT CAN BE EXPECTED ON
FRIDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE DOWN EAST COAST EARLY
FRIDAY EVENING WITH ANY LINGERING SHOWERS PUSHING OFFSHORE.
NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL USHER IN COLDER AIR FRIDAY
NIGHT. 850MB TEMPS FALL TO AROUND -5C BY 12Z SATURDAY WITH 925 MB
TEMPS DOWN TO AROUND 0C. WITH THE COLD AIR ALOFT WE COULD SEE A
FEW SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AS THE 500 MB LOW TRACKS
ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ON SATURDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE REMAINS TO OUR NORTHEAST AND A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS EAST. SKIES WILL BE PARTLY SUNNY ACROSS NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL AREAS WITH THE CHANCE OF A SHOWER AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES DOWN EAST. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE BELOW NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID TO
UPPER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY
EVENING AND CROSS THE REGION LATER SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO EARLY
SUNDAY. EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
THE CHANCE FOR A SHOWER MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. HIGHS ON
SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 60S NORTH AND CENTRAL AND
UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 DOWN EAST. EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES SUNDAY
NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A MAINLY SUNNY AND WARM MEMORIAL DAY. CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT WITH A FEW SHOWERS EXPECTED AS WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST TOWARD THE REGION. EXPECT A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AN ISLD TSTM TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY IN ADVANCE
OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL
AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT FOR ALL TERMINALS.

SHORT TERM: VFR BUT MVFR IN ANY RAIN SHOWERS FRIDAY AND RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HEADLINES THROUGH TONIGHT. SEAS ARE TO REMAIN 2 TO 3
FT INTO TONIGHT W/WINDS 10 TO 15 KTS.

SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS MAY REACH SCA LEVELS FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HEWITT
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...HEWITT/DUDA
MARINE...HEWITT/DUDA




000
FXUS61 KCAR 211104
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
704 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH WILL MOVE EAST TODAY. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM CUBIC LATER TONIGHT AND MOVING THROUGH
THE REGION ON FRIDAYS WITH SHOWERS FOR THE REGION. CONDITIONS
WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED INTO STUART AN UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION FROM CANAD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
7 AM UPDATE: 09Z SATE IMAGERY SHOWED MID/HIGH CLOUDS MOVING ENE
IN ASSOCIATION W/AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN NY AND
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. MOST OF THE METERS SHOWED THE HIGH CLOUDS TO
BE THIN. SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO WARM AFTER A CHILLY
START. WINDS WILL PICK UP BY MID MORNING BACKING TO SW BY THE AFTERNOON.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TODAY AS ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIDES
TOWARDS THE REGION. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE SEEN IN WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY IS FORECAST BY THE NAM AND GFS TO SWINGS ACROSS THE
REGION. LLVL CONVERGENCE IN THE WESTERN AREAS COMBINED W/SOME WEAK
MID LEVEL FORCING COULD ALLOW FOR A FEW SHOWERS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. DECIDED TO TAKE A CONSENSUS APCH(NAM/GFS AND HRRR 3KM)
AND BROUGHT 20-30% POPS INTO THE WNW AREAS A BIT EARLIER THAN
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. THE REST OF THE CWA WILL REMAIN DRY. DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE LOW/MID 60S NORTH AND WEST
TO THE UPPER 60S CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST.

A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ON THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND MOVE NE ACROSS NW MAINE. SHOWERS ARE
FORECAST TO MOVE INTO NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS OVERNIGHT. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT(<.05"). TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE
WARMER THAN THEY WERE THIS MORNING HOLDING IN THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK EAST OF THE GULF OF MAINE DURING FRIDAY.
STEADY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW SHOULD REMAIN TO THE EAST OF
THE STATE. HOWEVER, SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER
LOW FROM THE NORTHWEST AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT CAN BE EXPECTED ON
FRIDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE DOWN EAST COAST EARLY
FRIDAY EVENING WITH ANY LINGERING SHOWERS PUSHING OFFSHORE.
NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL USHER IN COLDER AIR FRIDAY
NIGHT. 850MB TEMPS FALL TO AROUND -5C BY 12Z SATURDAY WITH 925 MB
TEMPS DOWN TO AROUND 0C. WITH THE COLD AIR ALOFT WE COULD SEE A
FEW SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AS THE 500 MB LOW TRACKS
ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ON SATURDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE REMAINS TO OUR NORTHEAST AND A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS EAST. SKIES WILL BE PARTLY SUNNY ACROSS NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL AREAS WITH THE CHANCE OF A SHOWER AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES DOWN EAST. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE BELOW NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID TO
UPPER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY
EVENING AND CROSS THE REGION LATER SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO EARLY
SUNDAY. EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
THE CHANCE FOR A SHOWER MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. HIGHS ON
SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 60S NORTH AND CENTRAL AND
UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 DOWN EAST. EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES SUNDAY
NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A MAINLY SUNNY AND WARM MEMORIAL DAY. CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT WITH A FEW SHOWERS EXPECTED AS WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST TOWARD THE REGION. EXPECT A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AN ISLD TSTM TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY IN ADVANCE
OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL
AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT FOR ALL TERMINALS.

SHORT TERM: VFR BUT MVFR IN ANY RAIN SHOWERS FRIDAY AND RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HEADLINES THROUGH TONIGHT. SEAS ARE TO REMAIN 2 TO 3
FT INTO TONIGHT W/WINDS 10 TO 15 KTS.

SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS MAY REACH SCA LEVELS FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HEWITT
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...HEWITT/DUDA
MARINE...HEWITT/DUDA



000
FXUS61 KGYX 211045
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
645 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OFFSHORE TODAY AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL PASS WELL TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
SWING ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
THEN BUILDS IN OVER THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT LOOKS TO CROSS
THE AREA TO END THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
0645 UPDATE...ALL STATIONS IN OUR FORECAST AREA ARE NOW ABOVE
FREEZING AND WARMING. WILL BE ISSUING AN UPDATE SHORTLY TO DROP
FREEZE WARNINGS AND FROST ADVISORIES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD LEAD TO A PARTLY CLOUDY DAY ACROSS THE REGION
WITH AREAS OF CIRRUS PASSING OVERHEAD. AFTER A COLD START THIS
MORNING...TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND QUICKLY WITH HIGHS FROM THE
MID 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOW TO MID 70S IN SOUTHERN AREAS.
WINDS WILL TURN ONSHORE IN COASTAL AREAS THIS AFTERNOON LIMITING
WARMING TO THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
A SHORT WAVE PASSING THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT COMBINED WITH LOW
PASSING TO THE SOUTH WILL PRODUCE HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS
THE REGION WHICH WILL LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING. TEMPS SHOULD
REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING ALL AREAS..WITH ONLY COOS COUNTY REACHING AS
LOW AS THE MID 30S.

A COLD FRONT WILL BE CROSSING THE REGION FRIDAY. MODELS ARE NOT
CONSISTENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT WITH THE GFS BEING A BIT
FASTER. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT WITH THE
GREATEST THREAT OF RAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF FORECAST AREA
WITH A LESSER THREAT IN NEW HAMPSHIRE. TEMPS IN THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS WILL BE LIMITED BY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND MAY NOT REACH
60 DEGREES BEFORE STARTING TO COOL OFF AGAIN. SOUTH OF THE
MOUNTAINS...TEMPS WILL REACH THE 60S AND 70S PRIOR TO THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. AGAIN..ONSHORE FLOW WILL LIMIT TEMPS IN COASTAL AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE BIGGEST STORY IN THE EXTENDED COMES EARLY IN THE PERIOD.
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THRU THE REGION...WITH
SECONDARY...REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR TO ARRIVE LATE FRI/EARLY
SAT. TEMPS AT H8 WILL APPROACH 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL
BY EARLY SAT...WITH H9 TEMPS 2 SD BELOW NORMAL. BASED ON MODEL
FORECASTS H8 TEMPS OBSERVED AT 12Z SAT COULD BE SOME OF THE
COLDEST IN THE PERIOD OF RECORD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. MUCH LIKE
TONIGHT THE HIGH PRES WILL STILL BE BUILDING IN LATE FRI...MEANING
THAT THE GRADIENT WILL NOT ALLOW WINDS TO COMPLETELY DECOUPLE
EARLY ON. MAV GUIDANCE APPEARS TO BE WAY TOO COLD GIVEN A FORECAST
OF BOUNDARY LAYER STAYING AT LEAST PARTIALLY MIXED. DISCOUNTED LOW
20S FORECASTS FOR THE FAR N IN FAVOR OF A MORE REASONABLE UPPER
20S TO NEAR 30 FROM THE MET. STRENGTH OF THE FLOW EVEN SUGGESTS
SOME DOWNSLOPE WARMING IS POSSIBLE IN THE LEE OF THE MTNS...SO NOT
READY TO BITE ON NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING RIGHT TO THE COAST JUST
YET. HOWEVER IT DOES SEEM LIKELY THAT IT WILL AT LEAST BE AS COLD
AS CURRENT TEMPS TONIGHT...SO ANOTHER ROUND OF FROST/FREEZE
HEADLINES ARE LIKELY. IN ADDITION...UPPER LOW SWINGING ACROSS THE
AREA SHOULD LEAD TO SOME MTN SHOWERS. GIVEN FORECAST TEMPS
ALOFT...THOSE SHOWERS SHOULD BE OF THE FROZEN VARIETY.

WE RECOVER NICELY FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND...WITH MILDER TEMPS EXPECTED AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NWD
THRU THE NORTHEAST. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
THAT ANY COLD FRONT SUN WILL BE WEAKER AND JUST BRUSH THE
REGION...FOLLOWED BY WARM FRONT LIFTING THRU THE AREA RATHER THAN
STALLING TO THE S. THAT WILL KEEP THE THREAT FOR DIURNAL SHOWERS
IN THE FORECAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THRU THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. GUSTY WNW FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE SAT...WITH GUSTS AROUND
25 KTS POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINALS. WEAK COLD FRONT WILL TRY TO
CROSS THE AREA SUN...WITH WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS. WIDESPREAD VSBY
OR CIG RESTRICTIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME WITH THIS
FEATURE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WITH SW WINDS DEVELOPING...SEAS MAY APPROACH MINIMAL SCA
CRITERIA OFFSHORE TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY...OTHERWISE WINDS AND
SEAS BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

LONG TERM...CAA BEHIND COLD FRONT FRI WILL LEAD TO A PROBABLE
PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS ON THE WATERS SAT. THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK HIGH PRES WILL BE MORE IN
CONTROL...WITH WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY AND FRIDAY.
AFTERNOON MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL RANGE FROM 20 TO 35PERCENT
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE WITH WINDS GUSTING TO 15 TO 20 MPH.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...JENSENIUS
SHORT TERM...JENSENIUS
LONG TERM...LEGRO
AVIATION...JENSENIUS/LEGRO
MARINE...JENSENIUS/LEGRO
FIRE WEATHER...JENSENIUS/LEGRO




000
FXUS61 KGYX 211045
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
645 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OFFSHORE TODAY AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL PASS WELL TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
SWING ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
THEN BUILDS IN OVER THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT LOOKS TO CROSS
THE AREA TO END THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
0645 UPDATE...ALL STATIONS IN OUR FORECAST AREA ARE NOW ABOVE
FREEZING AND WARMING. WILL BE ISSUING AN UPDATE SHORTLY TO DROP
FREEZE WARNINGS AND FROST ADVISORIES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD LEAD TO A PARTLY CLOUDY DAY ACROSS THE REGION
WITH AREAS OF CIRRUS PASSING OVERHEAD. AFTER A COLD START THIS
MORNING...TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND QUICKLY WITH HIGHS FROM THE
MID 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOW TO MID 70S IN SOUTHERN AREAS.
WINDS WILL TURN ONSHORE IN COASTAL AREAS THIS AFTERNOON LIMITING
WARMING TO THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
A SHORT WAVE PASSING THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT COMBINED WITH LOW
PASSING TO THE SOUTH WILL PRODUCE HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS
THE REGION WHICH WILL LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING. TEMPS SHOULD
REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING ALL AREAS..WITH ONLY COOS COUNTY REACHING AS
LOW AS THE MID 30S.

A COLD FRONT WILL BE CROSSING THE REGION FRIDAY. MODELS ARE NOT
CONSISTENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT WITH THE GFS BEING A BIT
FASTER. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT WITH THE
GREATEST THREAT OF RAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF FORECAST AREA
WITH A LESSER THREAT IN NEW HAMPSHIRE. TEMPS IN THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS WILL BE LIMITED BY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND MAY NOT REACH
60 DEGREES BEFORE STARTING TO COOL OFF AGAIN. SOUTH OF THE
MOUNTAINS...TEMPS WILL REACH THE 60S AND 70S PRIOR TO THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. AGAIN..ONSHORE FLOW WILL LIMIT TEMPS IN COASTAL AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE BIGGEST STORY IN THE EXTENDED COMES EARLY IN THE PERIOD.
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THRU THE REGION...WITH
SECONDARY...REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR TO ARRIVE LATE FRI/EARLY
SAT. TEMPS AT H8 WILL APPROACH 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL
BY EARLY SAT...WITH H9 TEMPS 2 SD BELOW NORMAL. BASED ON MODEL
FORECASTS H8 TEMPS OBSERVED AT 12Z SAT COULD BE SOME OF THE
COLDEST IN THE PERIOD OF RECORD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. MUCH LIKE
TONIGHT THE HIGH PRES WILL STILL BE BUILDING IN LATE FRI...MEANING
THAT THE GRADIENT WILL NOT ALLOW WINDS TO COMPLETELY DECOUPLE
EARLY ON. MAV GUIDANCE APPEARS TO BE WAY TOO COLD GIVEN A FORECAST
OF BOUNDARY LAYER STAYING AT LEAST PARTIALLY MIXED. DISCOUNTED LOW
20S FORECASTS FOR THE FAR N IN FAVOR OF A MORE REASONABLE UPPER
20S TO NEAR 30 FROM THE MET. STRENGTH OF THE FLOW EVEN SUGGESTS
SOME DOWNSLOPE WARMING IS POSSIBLE IN THE LEE OF THE MTNS...SO NOT
READY TO BITE ON NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING RIGHT TO THE COAST JUST
YET. HOWEVER IT DOES SEEM LIKELY THAT IT WILL AT LEAST BE AS COLD
AS CURRENT TEMPS TONIGHT...SO ANOTHER ROUND OF FROST/FREEZE
HEADLINES ARE LIKELY. IN ADDITION...UPPER LOW SWINGING ACROSS THE
AREA SHOULD LEAD TO SOME MTN SHOWERS. GIVEN FORECAST TEMPS
ALOFT...THOSE SHOWERS SHOULD BE OF THE FROZEN VARIETY.

WE RECOVER NICELY FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND...WITH MILDER TEMPS EXPECTED AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NWD
THRU THE NORTHEAST. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
THAT ANY COLD FRONT SUN WILL BE WEAKER AND JUST BRUSH THE
REGION...FOLLOWED BY WARM FRONT LIFTING THRU THE AREA RATHER THAN
STALLING TO THE S. THAT WILL KEEP THE THREAT FOR DIURNAL SHOWERS
IN THE FORECAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THRU THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. GUSTY WNW FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE SAT...WITH GUSTS AROUND
25 KTS POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINALS. WEAK COLD FRONT WILL TRY TO
CROSS THE AREA SUN...WITH WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS. WIDESPREAD VSBY
OR CIG RESTRICTIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME WITH THIS
FEATURE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WITH SW WINDS DEVELOPING...SEAS MAY APPROACH MINIMAL SCA
CRITERIA OFFSHORE TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY...OTHERWISE WINDS AND
SEAS BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

LONG TERM...CAA BEHIND COLD FRONT FRI WILL LEAD TO A PROBABLE
PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS ON THE WATERS SAT. THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK HIGH PRES WILL BE MORE IN
CONTROL...WITH WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY AND FRIDAY.
AFTERNOON MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL RANGE FROM 20 TO 35PERCENT
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE WITH WINDS GUSTING TO 15 TO 20 MPH.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...JENSENIUS
SHORT TERM...JENSENIUS
LONG TERM...LEGRO
AVIATION...JENSENIUS/LEGRO
MARINE...JENSENIUS/LEGRO
FIRE WEATHER...JENSENIUS/LEGRO



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