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000
FXUS61 KCAR 270531
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1231 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK JUST EAST OF THE GULF OF MAINE TO SOUTHERN
NOVA SCOTIA OVERNIGHT...THEN EXIT ACROSS THE MARITIMES THURSDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AND MOVES EAST OF
THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
UPDATE...
THE BULK OF THE SNOW HAS NOW FALLEN OVER THE AREA WITH
ACCUMULATIONS UP TO 10 INCHES REPORTED IN SOUTHERN
PISCATAQUIS...THE BANGOR AREA AND IN NORTHERN HANCOCK COUNTY.
EXPECT TO SEE SIMILAR REPORTS OUT OF NORTHERN WASHINGTON AND
SOUTHERN AROOSTOOK AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. LIGHT SNOW WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE MORNING WITH SEVERAL ADDITIONAL
INCHES...ESPECIALLY TOWARDS THE EASTERN MAINE BORDER. THE MIXED
PRECIP IN THE COASTAL DOWN EAST REGION WILL CHANGE BACK TO ALL
SNOW AS THE LOW PUSHES TOWARDS NOVA SCOTIA OVERNIGHT. ITS CURRENT
POSITION IS EAST OF CAPE COD. WITH MANY THOUSANDS OF POWER
OUTAGES ALREADY...NORTH WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW REMAIN A
CONCERN FOR BANGOR AND THE DOWN EAST REGION WITH GUSTS WELL OVER
40 MPH IN SOUTHERN HANCOCK IN THE PREDAWN HOURS. GUSTS WILL BE
LESS IN BANGOR BUT STILL APPROACH 40 MPH FOR A FEW HOURS. WINDS
WILL TEND TO DIE OFF DURING THE COURSE OF THE MORNING AS THE LOW
SPEEDS AWAY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SNOW WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES ESPECIALLY CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS
THIS EVENING WITH SNOWFALL RATES AROUND 2 INCHES PER HOUR AT TIMES
FROM ABOUT HOULTON SOUTHWEST. A BIT OF A DECREASE IN INTENSITY
AFTER MIDNIGHT, WITH SNOW ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST BY MID MORNING
THURSDAY. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS MAY PERSIST IN THE AFTERNOON, BUT
NOTHING MAJOR.

WINDS WILL BE AN ISSUE WITH THIS STORM, WITH GUSTS 35 TO 45 MPH
ESPECIALLY COASTAL DOWNEAST. THIS COULD LEAD TO SCATTERED POWER
OUTAGES WITH THE WIND COUPLED WITH THE WET SNOW. DON`T THINK THE
WINDS WILL BE TOO MUCH OF AN ISSUE UP NORTH, THOUGH THERE COULD
BE SOME DRIFTING OF THE SNOW WITH ITS SOMEWHAT LOWER DENSITY UP
NORTH.
&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MARITIMES THURSDAY NIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST ALONG WITH A COLDER AIR MASS. A WEAK 500 MB TROUGH WILL CROSS
THE STATE DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. WILL USE A MODEL CONSENSUS FOR
POPS...SKY AND QPF AND BLEND THE GFS AND ECMWF. FOR THE
TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT WILL USE THE SUPER BLEND.
&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE STATE SATURDAY THEN MOVE EAST
INTO THE ATLANTIC SATURDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE VICINITY OF JAMES BAY SUNDAY. THIS
WILL RESULT IN A STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS NEW ENGLAND CAUSING
A WARM FRONT TO MOVE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE STATE. OVER RUNNING
PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP IN THE WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. PRECIPITATION WILL START AS SNOW THEN CHANGE TO MIXED THEN
RAIN AS TEMPERATURES WARM ALOFT. A STRONG COLD FRONT IS THEN
EXPECTED TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND CROSS THE
STATE EARLY MONDAY. STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL OCCUR BEHIND THIS
FRONT LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL APPROACH
FROM THE WEST AND CREST OVER THE STATE LATE TUESDAY. WILL USE THE
SUPERBLEND TO POPULATE GRIDS.
&&

.AVIATION /05Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM...IFR TO VLIFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN IMPROVE TO MVFR LEVELS DOWNEAST
LATE TONIGHT. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION
EARLY THURSDAY. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS COULD PERSIST ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS LATER THURSDAY...WITH VFR CONDITIONS DOWNEAST.
GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY.

SHORT AND LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY AND EARLY MONDAY.
VFR CONDITIONS LATE MONDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM...A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL
WATERS OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON. VISIBILITIES WILL BE
REDUCED IN SNOW...RAIN AND SLEET OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

SHORT AND LONG TERM...FOR WINDS: HAVE USED THE NAM12 UNTIL LATE
SATURDAY THEN TRANSITION TO THE SUPER BLEND WINDS. FOR WAVES: LONG
PERIOD SOUTHERLY WAVE SYSTEM GENERATED IN EASTERN SECTOR OF EAST
COAST STORM ON 27TH WILL PERSIST INTO SATURDAY NIGHT THEN SUBSIDE
EARLY SATURDAY. EXPECT OFF-SHORE LOCAL FETCH AS HIGH PRESSURE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST SUNDAY. EXPECT NEW SOUTHERLY FETCH TO
DEVELOP LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
EXPECT WAVES TO BUILD 6 TO 10 FEET/8-10 SECONDS IN THIS FETCH.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MEZ002-
     004>006-010-011-015>017-029>032.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MEZ001-
     003.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ050>052.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...FOISY/MCW
SHORT TERM...MIGNONE
LONG TERM...MIGNONE
AVIATION...FOISY/MCW/MIGNONE
MARINE...FOISY/MCW/MIGNONE




000
FXUS61 KCAR 270531
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1231 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK JUST EAST OF THE GULF OF MAINE TO SOUTHERN
NOVA SCOTIA OVERNIGHT...THEN EXIT ACROSS THE MARITIMES THURSDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AND MOVES EAST OF
THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
UPDATE...
THE BULK OF THE SNOW HAS NOW FALLEN OVER THE AREA WITH
ACCUMULATIONS UP TO 10 INCHES REPORTED IN SOUTHERN
PISCATAQUIS...THE BANGOR AREA AND IN NORTHERN HANCOCK COUNTY.
EXPECT TO SEE SIMILAR REPORTS OUT OF NORTHERN WASHINGTON AND
SOUTHERN AROOSTOOK AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. LIGHT SNOW WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE MORNING WITH SEVERAL ADDITIONAL
INCHES...ESPECIALLY TOWARDS THE EASTERN MAINE BORDER. THE MIXED
PRECIP IN THE COASTAL DOWN EAST REGION WILL CHANGE BACK TO ALL
SNOW AS THE LOW PUSHES TOWARDS NOVA SCOTIA OVERNIGHT. ITS CURRENT
POSITION IS EAST OF CAPE COD. WITH MANY THOUSANDS OF POWER
OUTAGES ALREADY...NORTH WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW REMAIN A
CONCERN FOR BANGOR AND THE DOWN EAST REGION WITH GUSTS WELL OVER
40 MPH IN SOUTHERN HANCOCK IN THE PREDAWN HOURS. GUSTS WILL BE
LESS IN BANGOR BUT STILL APPROACH 40 MPH FOR A FEW HOURS. WINDS
WILL TEND TO DIE OFF DURING THE COURSE OF THE MORNING AS THE LOW
SPEEDS AWAY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SNOW WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES ESPECIALLY CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS
THIS EVENING WITH SNOWFALL RATES AROUND 2 INCHES PER HOUR AT TIMES
FROM ABOUT HOULTON SOUTHWEST. A BIT OF A DECREASE IN INTENSITY
AFTER MIDNIGHT, WITH SNOW ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST BY MID MORNING
THURSDAY. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS MAY PERSIST IN THE AFTERNOON, BUT
NOTHING MAJOR.

WINDS WILL BE AN ISSUE WITH THIS STORM, WITH GUSTS 35 TO 45 MPH
ESPECIALLY COASTAL DOWNEAST. THIS COULD LEAD TO SCATTERED POWER
OUTAGES WITH THE WIND COUPLED WITH THE WET SNOW. DON`T THINK THE
WINDS WILL BE TOO MUCH OF AN ISSUE UP NORTH, THOUGH THERE COULD
BE SOME DRIFTING OF THE SNOW WITH ITS SOMEWHAT LOWER DENSITY UP
NORTH.
&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MARITIMES THURSDAY NIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST ALONG WITH A COLDER AIR MASS. A WEAK 500 MB TROUGH WILL CROSS
THE STATE DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. WILL USE A MODEL CONSENSUS FOR
POPS...SKY AND QPF AND BLEND THE GFS AND ECMWF. FOR THE
TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT WILL USE THE SUPER BLEND.
&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE STATE SATURDAY THEN MOVE EAST
INTO THE ATLANTIC SATURDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE VICINITY OF JAMES BAY SUNDAY. THIS
WILL RESULT IN A STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS NEW ENGLAND CAUSING
A WARM FRONT TO MOVE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE STATE. OVER RUNNING
PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP IN THE WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. PRECIPITATION WILL START AS SNOW THEN CHANGE TO MIXED THEN
RAIN AS TEMPERATURES WARM ALOFT. A STRONG COLD FRONT IS THEN
EXPECTED TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND CROSS THE
STATE EARLY MONDAY. STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL OCCUR BEHIND THIS
FRONT LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL APPROACH
FROM THE WEST AND CREST OVER THE STATE LATE TUESDAY. WILL USE THE
SUPERBLEND TO POPULATE GRIDS.
&&

.AVIATION /05Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM...IFR TO VLIFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN IMPROVE TO MVFR LEVELS DOWNEAST
LATE TONIGHT. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION
EARLY THURSDAY. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS COULD PERSIST ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS LATER THURSDAY...WITH VFR CONDITIONS DOWNEAST.
GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY.

SHORT AND LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY AND EARLY MONDAY.
VFR CONDITIONS LATE MONDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM...A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL
WATERS OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON. VISIBILITIES WILL BE
REDUCED IN SNOW...RAIN AND SLEET OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

SHORT AND LONG TERM...FOR WINDS: HAVE USED THE NAM12 UNTIL LATE
SATURDAY THEN TRANSITION TO THE SUPER BLEND WINDS. FOR WAVES: LONG
PERIOD SOUTHERLY WAVE SYSTEM GENERATED IN EASTERN SECTOR OF EAST
COAST STORM ON 27TH WILL PERSIST INTO SATURDAY NIGHT THEN SUBSIDE
EARLY SATURDAY. EXPECT OFF-SHORE LOCAL FETCH AS HIGH PRESSURE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST SUNDAY. EXPECT NEW SOUTHERLY FETCH TO
DEVELOP LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
EXPECT WAVES TO BUILD 6 TO 10 FEET/8-10 SECONDS IN THIS FETCH.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MEZ002-
     004>006-010-011-015>017-029>032.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MEZ001-
     003.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ050>052.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...FOISY/MCW
SHORT TERM...MIGNONE
LONG TERM...MIGNONE
AVIATION...FOISY/MCW/MIGNONE
MARINE...FOISY/MCW/MIGNONE



000
FXUS61 KCAR 270359
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1059 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK JUST EAST OF THE GULF OF MAINE TO SOUTHERN
NOVA SCOTIA OVERNIGHT...THEN EXIT ACROSS THE MARITIMES THURSDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AND MOVES EAST OF
THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPDATE...
INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR CAPE COD WILL
TRACK TO SOUTHERN NOVA SCOTIA OVERNIGHT. PRECIPITATION WITH THE
LOW WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT...WITH THE SNOW HEAVY AT TIMES. HOWEVER...THE SNOW HAS
MIXED WITH SLEET AND RAIN ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AND CRITICAL THICKNESSES INDICATE THAT THE SNOW COULD
ALSO MIX WITH SLEET AT TIMES ACROSS INTERIOR DOWNEAST AREAS.
CURRENT STORM TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS STILL APPEAR ON TARGET WITH
NO CHANGES TO THE CURRENT WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES. HAVE UPDATED
THE FORECAST TO ADJUST FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS ALONG WITH OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION TYPE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SNOW WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES ESPECIALLY CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS
THIS EVENING WITH SNOWFALL RATES AROUND 2 INCHES PER HOUR AT TIMES
FROM ABOUT HOULTON SOUTHWEST. A BIT OF A DECREASE IN INTENSITY
AFTER MIDNIGHT, WITH SNOW ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST BY MID MORNING
THURSDAY. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS MAY PERSIST IN THE AFTERNOON, BUT
NOTHING MAJOR.

WINDS WILL BE AN ISSUE WITH THIS STORM, WITH GUSTS 35 TO 45 MPH
ESPECIALLY COASTAL DOWNEAST. THIS COULD LEAD TO SCATTERED POWER
OUTAGES WITH THE WIND COUPLED WITH THE WET SNOW. DON`T THINK THE
WINDS WILL BE TOO MUCH OF AN ISSUE UP NORTH, THOUGH THERE COULD
BE SOME DRIFTING OF THE SNOW WITH ITS SOMEWHAT LOWER DENSITY UP
NORTH.
&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MARITIMES THURSDAY NIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST ALONG WITH A COLDER AIR MASS. A WEAK 500 MB TROUGH WILL CROSS
THE STATE DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. WILL USE A MODEL CONSENSUS FOR
POPS...SKY AND QPF AND BLEND THE GFS AND ECMWF. FOR THE
TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT WILL USE THE SUPER BLEND.
&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE STATE SATURDAY THEN MOVE EAST
INTO THE ATLANTIC SATURDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE VICINITY OF JAMES BAY SUNDAY. THIS
WILL RESULT IN A STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS NEW ENGLAND CAUSING
A WARM FRONT TO MOVE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE STATE. OVER RUNNING
PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP IN THE WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. PRECIPITATION WILL START AS SNOW THEN CHANGE TO MIXED THEN
RAIN AS TEMPERATURES WARM ALOFT. A STRONG COLD FRONT IS THEN
EXPECTED TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND CROSS THE
STATE EARLY MONDAY. STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL OCCUR BEHIND THIS
FRONT LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL APPROACH
FROM THE WEST AND CREST OVER THE STATE LATE TUESDAY. WILL USE THE
SUPERBLEND TO POPULATE GRIDS.
&&

.AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM...IFR TO VLIFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN IMPROVE TO MVFR LEVELS DOWNEAST
LATE TONIGHT. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION
EARLY THURSDAY. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS COULD PERSIST ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS LATER THURSDAY...WITH VFR CONDITIONS DOWNEAST.
GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY.

SHORT AND LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY AND EARLY MONDAY.
VFR CONDITIONS LATE MONDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM...A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL
WATERS OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON. VISIBILITIES WILL BE
REDUCED IN SNOW...RAIN AND SLEET OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

SHORT AND LONG TERM...FOR WINDS: HAVE USED THE NAM12 UNTIL LATE
SATURDAY THEN TRANSITION TO THE SUPER BLEND WINDS. FOR WAVES: LONG
PERIOD SOUTHERLY WAVE SYSTEM GENERATED IN EASTERN SECTOR OF EAST
COAST STORM ON 27TH WILL PERSIST INTO SATURDAY NIGHT THEN SUBSIDE
EARLY SATURDAY. EXPECT OFF-SHORE LOCAL FETCH AS HIGH PRESSURE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST SUNDAY. EXPECT NEW SOUTHERLY FETCH TO
DEVELOP LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
EXPECT WAVES TO BUILD 6 TO 10 FEET/8-10 SECONDS IN THIS FETCH.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MEZ002-
     004>006-010-011-015>017-029>032.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MEZ001-003.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...NORCROSS/FOISY
SHORT TERM...MIGNONE
LONG TERM...MIGNONE
AVIATION...NORCROSS/MIGNONE
MARINE...NORCROSS/MIGNONE



000
FXUS61 KCAR 270359
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1059 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK JUST EAST OF THE GULF OF MAINE TO SOUTHERN
NOVA SCOTIA OVERNIGHT...THEN EXIT ACROSS THE MARITIMES THURSDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AND MOVES EAST OF
THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPDATE...
INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR CAPE COD WILL
TRACK TO SOUTHERN NOVA SCOTIA OVERNIGHT. PRECIPITATION WITH THE
LOW WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT...WITH THE SNOW HEAVY AT TIMES. HOWEVER...THE SNOW HAS
MIXED WITH SLEET AND RAIN ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AND CRITICAL THICKNESSES INDICATE THAT THE SNOW COULD
ALSO MIX WITH SLEET AT TIMES ACROSS INTERIOR DOWNEAST AREAS.
CURRENT STORM TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS STILL APPEAR ON TARGET WITH
NO CHANGES TO THE CURRENT WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES. HAVE UPDATED
THE FORECAST TO ADJUST FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS ALONG WITH OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION TYPE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SNOW WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES ESPECIALLY CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS
THIS EVENING WITH SNOWFALL RATES AROUND 2 INCHES PER HOUR AT TIMES
FROM ABOUT HOULTON SOUTHWEST. A BIT OF A DECREASE IN INTENSITY
AFTER MIDNIGHT, WITH SNOW ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST BY MID MORNING
THURSDAY. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS MAY PERSIST IN THE AFTERNOON, BUT
NOTHING MAJOR.

WINDS WILL BE AN ISSUE WITH THIS STORM, WITH GUSTS 35 TO 45 MPH
ESPECIALLY COASTAL DOWNEAST. THIS COULD LEAD TO SCATTERED POWER
OUTAGES WITH THE WIND COUPLED WITH THE WET SNOW. DON`T THINK THE
WINDS WILL BE TOO MUCH OF AN ISSUE UP NORTH, THOUGH THERE COULD
BE SOME DRIFTING OF THE SNOW WITH ITS SOMEWHAT LOWER DENSITY UP
NORTH.
&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MARITIMES THURSDAY NIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST ALONG WITH A COLDER AIR MASS. A WEAK 500 MB TROUGH WILL CROSS
THE STATE DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. WILL USE A MODEL CONSENSUS FOR
POPS...SKY AND QPF AND BLEND THE GFS AND ECMWF. FOR THE
TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT WILL USE THE SUPER BLEND.
&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE STATE SATURDAY THEN MOVE EAST
INTO THE ATLANTIC SATURDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE VICINITY OF JAMES BAY SUNDAY. THIS
WILL RESULT IN A STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS NEW ENGLAND CAUSING
A WARM FRONT TO MOVE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE STATE. OVER RUNNING
PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP IN THE WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. PRECIPITATION WILL START AS SNOW THEN CHANGE TO MIXED THEN
RAIN AS TEMPERATURES WARM ALOFT. A STRONG COLD FRONT IS THEN
EXPECTED TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND CROSS THE
STATE EARLY MONDAY. STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL OCCUR BEHIND THIS
FRONT LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL APPROACH
FROM THE WEST AND CREST OVER THE STATE LATE TUESDAY. WILL USE THE
SUPERBLEND TO POPULATE GRIDS.
&&

.AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM...IFR TO VLIFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN IMPROVE TO MVFR LEVELS DOWNEAST
LATE TONIGHT. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION
EARLY THURSDAY. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS COULD PERSIST ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS LATER THURSDAY...WITH VFR CONDITIONS DOWNEAST.
GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY.

SHORT AND LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY AND EARLY MONDAY.
VFR CONDITIONS LATE MONDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM...A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL
WATERS OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON. VISIBILITIES WILL BE
REDUCED IN SNOW...RAIN AND SLEET OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

SHORT AND LONG TERM...FOR WINDS: HAVE USED THE NAM12 UNTIL LATE
SATURDAY THEN TRANSITION TO THE SUPER BLEND WINDS. FOR WAVES: LONG
PERIOD SOUTHERLY WAVE SYSTEM GENERATED IN EASTERN SECTOR OF EAST
COAST STORM ON 27TH WILL PERSIST INTO SATURDAY NIGHT THEN SUBSIDE
EARLY SATURDAY. EXPECT OFF-SHORE LOCAL FETCH AS HIGH PRESSURE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST SUNDAY. EXPECT NEW SOUTHERLY FETCH TO
DEVELOP LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
EXPECT WAVES TO BUILD 6 TO 10 FEET/8-10 SECONDS IN THIS FETCH.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MEZ002-
     004>006-010-011-015>017-029>032.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MEZ001-003.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...NORCROSS/FOISY
SHORT TERM...MIGNONE
LONG TERM...MIGNONE
AVIATION...NORCROSS/MIGNONE
MARINE...NORCROSS/MIGNONE




000
FXUS61 KCAR 270359
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1059 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK JUST EAST OF THE GULF OF MAINE TO SOUTHERN
NOVA SCOTIA OVERNIGHT...THEN EXIT ACROSS THE MARITIMES THURSDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AND MOVES EAST OF
THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPDATE...
INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR CAPE COD WILL
TRACK TO SOUTHERN NOVA SCOTIA OVERNIGHT. PRECIPITATION WITH THE
LOW WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT...WITH THE SNOW HEAVY AT TIMES. HOWEVER...THE SNOW HAS
MIXED WITH SLEET AND RAIN ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AND CRITICAL THICKNESSES INDICATE THAT THE SNOW COULD
ALSO MIX WITH SLEET AT TIMES ACROSS INTERIOR DOWNEAST AREAS.
CURRENT STORM TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS STILL APPEAR ON TARGET WITH
NO CHANGES TO THE CURRENT WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES. HAVE UPDATED
THE FORECAST TO ADJUST FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS ALONG WITH OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION TYPE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SNOW WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES ESPECIALLY CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS
THIS EVENING WITH SNOWFALL RATES AROUND 2 INCHES PER HOUR AT TIMES
FROM ABOUT HOULTON SOUTHWEST. A BIT OF A DECREASE IN INTENSITY
AFTER MIDNIGHT, WITH SNOW ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST BY MID MORNING
THURSDAY. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS MAY PERSIST IN THE AFTERNOON, BUT
NOTHING MAJOR.

WINDS WILL BE AN ISSUE WITH THIS STORM, WITH GUSTS 35 TO 45 MPH
ESPECIALLY COASTAL DOWNEAST. THIS COULD LEAD TO SCATTERED POWER
OUTAGES WITH THE WIND COUPLED WITH THE WET SNOW. DON`T THINK THE
WINDS WILL BE TOO MUCH OF AN ISSUE UP NORTH, THOUGH THERE COULD
BE SOME DRIFTING OF THE SNOW WITH ITS SOMEWHAT LOWER DENSITY UP
NORTH.
&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MARITIMES THURSDAY NIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST ALONG WITH A COLDER AIR MASS. A WEAK 500 MB TROUGH WILL CROSS
THE STATE DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. WILL USE A MODEL CONSENSUS FOR
POPS...SKY AND QPF AND BLEND THE GFS AND ECMWF. FOR THE
TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT WILL USE THE SUPER BLEND.
&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE STATE SATURDAY THEN MOVE EAST
INTO THE ATLANTIC SATURDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE VICINITY OF JAMES BAY SUNDAY. THIS
WILL RESULT IN A STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS NEW ENGLAND CAUSING
A WARM FRONT TO MOVE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE STATE. OVER RUNNING
PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP IN THE WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. PRECIPITATION WILL START AS SNOW THEN CHANGE TO MIXED THEN
RAIN AS TEMPERATURES WARM ALOFT. A STRONG COLD FRONT IS THEN
EXPECTED TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND CROSS THE
STATE EARLY MONDAY. STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL OCCUR BEHIND THIS
FRONT LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL APPROACH
FROM THE WEST AND CREST OVER THE STATE LATE TUESDAY. WILL USE THE
SUPERBLEND TO POPULATE GRIDS.
&&

.AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM...IFR TO VLIFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN IMPROVE TO MVFR LEVELS DOWNEAST
LATE TONIGHT. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION
EARLY THURSDAY. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS COULD PERSIST ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS LATER THURSDAY...WITH VFR CONDITIONS DOWNEAST.
GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY.

SHORT AND LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY AND EARLY MONDAY.
VFR CONDITIONS LATE MONDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM...A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL
WATERS OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON. VISIBILITIES WILL BE
REDUCED IN SNOW...RAIN AND SLEET OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

SHORT AND LONG TERM...FOR WINDS: HAVE USED THE NAM12 UNTIL LATE
SATURDAY THEN TRANSITION TO THE SUPER BLEND WINDS. FOR WAVES: LONG
PERIOD SOUTHERLY WAVE SYSTEM GENERATED IN EASTERN SECTOR OF EAST
COAST STORM ON 27TH WILL PERSIST INTO SATURDAY NIGHT THEN SUBSIDE
EARLY SATURDAY. EXPECT OFF-SHORE LOCAL FETCH AS HIGH PRESSURE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST SUNDAY. EXPECT NEW SOUTHERLY FETCH TO
DEVELOP LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
EXPECT WAVES TO BUILD 6 TO 10 FEET/8-10 SECONDS IN THIS FETCH.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MEZ002-
     004>006-010-011-015>017-029>032.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MEZ001-003.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...NORCROSS/FOISY
SHORT TERM...MIGNONE
LONG TERM...MIGNONE
AVIATION...NORCROSS/MIGNONE
MARINE...NORCROSS/MIGNONE




000
FXUS61 KCAR 270359
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1059 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK JUST EAST OF THE GULF OF MAINE TO SOUTHERN
NOVA SCOTIA OVERNIGHT...THEN EXIT ACROSS THE MARITIMES THURSDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AND MOVES EAST OF
THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPDATE...
INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR CAPE COD WILL
TRACK TO SOUTHERN NOVA SCOTIA OVERNIGHT. PRECIPITATION WITH THE
LOW WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT...WITH THE SNOW HEAVY AT TIMES. HOWEVER...THE SNOW HAS
MIXED WITH SLEET AND RAIN ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AND CRITICAL THICKNESSES INDICATE THAT THE SNOW COULD
ALSO MIX WITH SLEET AT TIMES ACROSS INTERIOR DOWNEAST AREAS.
CURRENT STORM TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS STILL APPEAR ON TARGET WITH
NO CHANGES TO THE CURRENT WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES. HAVE UPDATED
THE FORECAST TO ADJUST FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS ALONG WITH OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION TYPE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SNOW WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES ESPECIALLY CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS
THIS EVENING WITH SNOWFALL RATES AROUND 2 INCHES PER HOUR AT TIMES
FROM ABOUT HOULTON SOUTHWEST. A BIT OF A DECREASE IN INTENSITY
AFTER MIDNIGHT, WITH SNOW ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST BY MID MORNING
THURSDAY. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS MAY PERSIST IN THE AFTERNOON, BUT
NOTHING MAJOR.

WINDS WILL BE AN ISSUE WITH THIS STORM, WITH GUSTS 35 TO 45 MPH
ESPECIALLY COASTAL DOWNEAST. THIS COULD LEAD TO SCATTERED POWER
OUTAGES WITH THE WIND COUPLED WITH THE WET SNOW. DON`T THINK THE
WINDS WILL BE TOO MUCH OF AN ISSUE UP NORTH, THOUGH THERE COULD
BE SOME DRIFTING OF THE SNOW WITH ITS SOMEWHAT LOWER DENSITY UP
NORTH.
&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MARITIMES THURSDAY NIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST ALONG WITH A COLDER AIR MASS. A WEAK 500 MB TROUGH WILL CROSS
THE STATE DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. WILL USE A MODEL CONSENSUS FOR
POPS...SKY AND QPF AND BLEND THE GFS AND ECMWF. FOR THE
TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT WILL USE THE SUPER BLEND.
&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE STATE SATURDAY THEN MOVE EAST
INTO THE ATLANTIC SATURDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE VICINITY OF JAMES BAY SUNDAY. THIS
WILL RESULT IN A STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS NEW ENGLAND CAUSING
A WARM FRONT TO MOVE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE STATE. OVER RUNNING
PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP IN THE WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. PRECIPITATION WILL START AS SNOW THEN CHANGE TO MIXED THEN
RAIN AS TEMPERATURES WARM ALOFT. A STRONG COLD FRONT IS THEN
EXPECTED TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND CROSS THE
STATE EARLY MONDAY. STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL OCCUR BEHIND THIS
FRONT LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL APPROACH
FROM THE WEST AND CREST OVER THE STATE LATE TUESDAY. WILL USE THE
SUPERBLEND TO POPULATE GRIDS.
&&

.AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM...IFR TO VLIFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN IMPROVE TO MVFR LEVELS DOWNEAST
LATE TONIGHT. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION
EARLY THURSDAY. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS COULD PERSIST ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS LATER THURSDAY...WITH VFR CONDITIONS DOWNEAST.
GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY.

SHORT AND LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY AND EARLY MONDAY.
VFR CONDITIONS LATE MONDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM...A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL
WATERS OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON. VISIBILITIES WILL BE
REDUCED IN SNOW...RAIN AND SLEET OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

SHORT AND LONG TERM...FOR WINDS: HAVE USED THE NAM12 UNTIL LATE
SATURDAY THEN TRANSITION TO THE SUPER BLEND WINDS. FOR WAVES: LONG
PERIOD SOUTHERLY WAVE SYSTEM GENERATED IN EASTERN SECTOR OF EAST
COAST STORM ON 27TH WILL PERSIST INTO SATURDAY NIGHT THEN SUBSIDE
EARLY SATURDAY. EXPECT OFF-SHORE LOCAL FETCH AS HIGH PRESSURE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST SUNDAY. EXPECT NEW SOUTHERLY FETCH TO
DEVELOP LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
EXPECT WAVES TO BUILD 6 TO 10 FEET/8-10 SECONDS IN THIS FETCH.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MEZ002-
     004>006-010-011-015>017-029>032.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MEZ001-003.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...NORCROSS/FOISY
SHORT TERM...MIGNONE
LONG TERM...MIGNONE
AVIATION...NORCROSS/MIGNONE
MARINE...NORCROSS/MIGNONE




000
FXUS61 KCAR 270359
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1059 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK JUST EAST OF THE GULF OF MAINE TO SOUTHERN
NOVA SCOTIA OVERNIGHT...THEN EXIT ACROSS THE MARITIMES THURSDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AND MOVES EAST OF
THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPDATE...
INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR CAPE COD WILL
TRACK TO SOUTHERN NOVA SCOTIA OVERNIGHT. PRECIPITATION WITH THE
LOW WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT...WITH THE SNOW HEAVY AT TIMES. HOWEVER...THE SNOW HAS
MIXED WITH SLEET AND RAIN ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AND CRITICAL THICKNESSES INDICATE THAT THE SNOW COULD
ALSO MIX WITH SLEET AT TIMES ACROSS INTERIOR DOWNEAST AREAS.
CURRENT STORM TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS STILL APPEAR ON TARGET WITH
NO CHANGES TO THE CURRENT WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES. HAVE UPDATED
THE FORECAST TO ADJUST FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS ALONG WITH OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION TYPE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SNOW WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES ESPECIALLY CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS
THIS EVENING WITH SNOWFALL RATES AROUND 2 INCHES PER HOUR AT TIMES
FROM ABOUT HOULTON SOUTHWEST. A BIT OF A DECREASE IN INTENSITY
AFTER MIDNIGHT, WITH SNOW ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST BY MID MORNING
THURSDAY. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS MAY PERSIST IN THE AFTERNOON, BUT
NOTHING MAJOR.

WINDS WILL BE AN ISSUE WITH THIS STORM, WITH GUSTS 35 TO 45 MPH
ESPECIALLY COASTAL DOWNEAST. THIS COULD LEAD TO SCATTERED POWER
OUTAGES WITH THE WIND COUPLED WITH THE WET SNOW. DON`T THINK THE
WINDS WILL BE TOO MUCH OF AN ISSUE UP NORTH, THOUGH THERE COULD
BE SOME DRIFTING OF THE SNOW WITH ITS SOMEWHAT LOWER DENSITY UP
NORTH.
&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MARITIMES THURSDAY NIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST ALONG WITH A COLDER AIR MASS. A WEAK 500 MB TROUGH WILL CROSS
THE STATE DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. WILL USE A MODEL CONSENSUS FOR
POPS...SKY AND QPF AND BLEND THE GFS AND ECMWF. FOR THE
TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT WILL USE THE SUPER BLEND.
&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE STATE SATURDAY THEN MOVE EAST
INTO THE ATLANTIC SATURDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE VICINITY OF JAMES BAY SUNDAY. THIS
WILL RESULT IN A STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS NEW ENGLAND CAUSING
A WARM FRONT TO MOVE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE STATE. OVER RUNNING
PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP IN THE WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. PRECIPITATION WILL START AS SNOW THEN CHANGE TO MIXED THEN
RAIN AS TEMPERATURES WARM ALOFT. A STRONG COLD FRONT IS THEN
EXPECTED TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND CROSS THE
STATE EARLY MONDAY. STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL OCCUR BEHIND THIS
FRONT LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL APPROACH
FROM THE WEST AND CREST OVER THE STATE LATE TUESDAY. WILL USE THE
SUPERBLEND TO POPULATE GRIDS.
&&

.AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM...IFR TO VLIFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN IMPROVE TO MVFR LEVELS DOWNEAST
LATE TONIGHT. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION
EARLY THURSDAY. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS COULD PERSIST ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS LATER THURSDAY...WITH VFR CONDITIONS DOWNEAST.
GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY.

SHORT AND LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY AND EARLY MONDAY.
VFR CONDITIONS LATE MONDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM...A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL
WATERS OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON. VISIBILITIES WILL BE
REDUCED IN SNOW...RAIN AND SLEET OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

SHORT AND LONG TERM...FOR WINDS: HAVE USED THE NAM12 UNTIL LATE
SATURDAY THEN TRANSITION TO THE SUPER BLEND WINDS. FOR WAVES: LONG
PERIOD SOUTHERLY WAVE SYSTEM GENERATED IN EASTERN SECTOR OF EAST
COAST STORM ON 27TH WILL PERSIST INTO SATURDAY NIGHT THEN SUBSIDE
EARLY SATURDAY. EXPECT OFF-SHORE LOCAL FETCH AS HIGH PRESSURE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST SUNDAY. EXPECT NEW SOUTHERLY FETCH TO
DEVELOP LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
EXPECT WAVES TO BUILD 6 TO 10 FEET/8-10 SECONDS IN THIS FETCH.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MEZ002-
     004>006-010-011-015>017-029>032.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MEZ001-003.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...NORCROSS/FOISY
SHORT TERM...MIGNONE
LONG TERM...MIGNONE
AVIATION...NORCROSS/MIGNONE
MARINE...NORCROSS/MIGNONE




000
FXUS61 KCAR 270359
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1059 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK JUST EAST OF THE GULF OF MAINE TO SOUTHERN
NOVA SCOTIA OVERNIGHT...THEN EXIT ACROSS THE MARITIMES THURSDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AND MOVES EAST OF
THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPDATE...
INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR CAPE COD WILL
TRACK TO SOUTHERN NOVA SCOTIA OVERNIGHT. PRECIPITATION WITH THE
LOW WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT...WITH THE SNOW HEAVY AT TIMES. HOWEVER...THE SNOW HAS
MIXED WITH SLEET AND RAIN ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AND CRITICAL THICKNESSES INDICATE THAT THE SNOW COULD
ALSO MIX WITH SLEET AT TIMES ACROSS INTERIOR DOWNEAST AREAS.
CURRENT STORM TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS STILL APPEAR ON TARGET WITH
NO CHANGES TO THE CURRENT WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES. HAVE UPDATED
THE FORECAST TO ADJUST FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS ALONG WITH OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION TYPE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SNOW WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES ESPECIALLY CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS
THIS EVENING WITH SNOWFALL RATES AROUND 2 INCHES PER HOUR AT TIMES
FROM ABOUT HOULTON SOUTHWEST. A BIT OF A DECREASE IN INTENSITY
AFTER MIDNIGHT, WITH SNOW ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST BY MID MORNING
THURSDAY. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS MAY PERSIST IN THE AFTERNOON, BUT
NOTHING MAJOR.

WINDS WILL BE AN ISSUE WITH THIS STORM, WITH GUSTS 35 TO 45 MPH
ESPECIALLY COASTAL DOWNEAST. THIS COULD LEAD TO SCATTERED POWER
OUTAGES WITH THE WIND COUPLED WITH THE WET SNOW. DON`T THINK THE
WINDS WILL BE TOO MUCH OF AN ISSUE UP NORTH, THOUGH THERE COULD
BE SOME DRIFTING OF THE SNOW WITH ITS SOMEWHAT LOWER DENSITY UP
NORTH.
&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MARITIMES THURSDAY NIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST ALONG WITH A COLDER AIR MASS. A WEAK 500 MB TROUGH WILL CROSS
THE STATE DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. WILL USE A MODEL CONSENSUS FOR
POPS...SKY AND QPF AND BLEND THE GFS AND ECMWF. FOR THE
TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT WILL USE THE SUPER BLEND.
&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE STATE SATURDAY THEN MOVE EAST
INTO THE ATLANTIC SATURDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE VICINITY OF JAMES BAY SUNDAY. THIS
WILL RESULT IN A STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS NEW ENGLAND CAUSING
A WARM FRONT TO MOVE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE STATE. OVER RUNNING
PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP IN THE WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. PRECIPITATION WILL START AS SNOW THEN CHANGE TO MIXED THEN
RAIN AS TEMPERATURES WARM ALOFT. A STRONG COLD FRONT IS THEN
EXPECTED TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND CROSS THE
STATE EARLY MONDAY. STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL OCCUR BEHIND THIS
FRONT LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL APPROACH
FROM THE WEST AND CREST OVER THE STATE LATE TUESDAY. WILL USE THE
SUPERBLEND TO POPULATE GRIDS.
&&

.AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM...IFR TO VLIFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN IMPROVE TO MVFR LEVELS DOWNEAST
LATE TONIGHT. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION
EARLY THURSDAY. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS COULD PERSIST ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS LATER THURSDAY...WITH VFR CONDITIONS DOWNEAST.
GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY.

SHORT AND LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY AND EARLY MONDAY.
VFR CONDITIONS LATE MONDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM...A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL
WATERS OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON. VISIBILITIES WILL BE
REDUCED IN SNOW...RAIN AND SLEET OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

SHORT AND LONG TERM...FOR WINDS: HAVE USED THE NAM12 UNTIL LATE
SATURDAY THEN TRANSITION TO THE SUPER BLEND WINDS. FOR WAVES: LONG
PERIOD SOUTHERLY WAVE SYSTEM GENERATED IN EASTERN SECTOR OF EAST
COAST STORM ON 27TH WILL PERSIST INTO SATURDAY NIGHT THEN SUBSIDE
EARLY SATURDAY. EXPECT OFF-SHORE LOCAL FETCH AS HIGH PRESSURE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST SUNDAY. EXPECT NEW SOUTHERLY FETCH TO
DEVELOP LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
EXPECT WAVES TO BUILD 6 TO 10 FEET/8-10 SECONDS IN THIS FETCH.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MEZ002-
     004>006-010-011-015>017-029>032.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MEZ001-003.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...NORCROSS/FOISY
SHORT TERM...MIGNONE
LONG TERM...MIGNONE
AVIATION...NORCROSS/MIGNONE
MARINE...NORCROSS/MIGNONE



  [top]

000
FXUS61 KGYX 270328
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1028 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF CAPE COD WILL RACE NORTHEAST INTO THE
MARITIMES TONIGHT. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE
REGION ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE
WEST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE
AREA ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND WILL MOVE OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. A WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND
WILL CROSS THE REGION EARLY MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
BEHIND THE FRONT MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
1015 PM UPDATE: NO CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME. SNOW CONTINUES
WITH SOME SLEET MIXED IN ALONG THE COAST AT TIMES AS FCST. SAT PIX
AND RADAR INDICATE WRAPAROUND BANDING SNOWS DEVELOPING SO SOME
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. THIS
WILL MAKE THE FORECAST TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FOR THE STORM FAIRLY
CLOSE. WIDESPREAD POWER OUTAGES A PROBLEM FOR THE REST OF THE
NIGHT AS WINDS HAVE PICKED UP AND BECOME GUSTY. THE HEAVY WET SNOW
ON TREE LIMBS COMBINED WITH THE INCREASING WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
CAUSE ADDITIONAL POWER OUTAGES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

ON THE 10 PM WSW ADDED AN ADDITIONAL PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS
ACTION FOR PEOPLE USING GENERATORS.

720 PM UPDATE: FORCAST AMOUNTS ON TRACK. CENTER OF SFC LO JUST NW
OF 40N/70W BENCHMARK TRACKING NE. BANDS OF HVY SNOWFALL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE FA WITH SOME RATES OF 1-2 INCHES/HR AT TIMES. REPORTS
OF NUMEROUS POWER OUTAGES ACROSS SRN ME AND NH DUE TO THE HEAVY
WET SNOW WEIGHING DOWN BRANCHES...MORE OUTAGES ARE EXPECTED AS
ANOTHER BURST OF HEAVY PCPN DVLPS AND MOVES N AS THE SFC/MID LVL
LOW DEEPEN AND WRAPAROUND SNOWS DEVELOP AS IT PASSES OFF TO OUR E.
EXPECTING CONDITONS TO BEGIN TO WIND DOWN OVER SRN AREAS OF NH/ME
LATER TONIGHT. FCST SNOW AMTS LOOK GOOD ATTM WITH NO CHANGES TO
THE TOTALS.

PREV DISC:
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY NEAR CAPE HATTERAS THIS
AFTERNOON. FURTHER CYCLOGENESIS WILL TAKE PLACE AS THE SYSTEM
HEADS NORTHEAST TOWARDS CAPE COD.

ANY RAIN OR SLEET HAS QUICKLY CHANGED TO SNOW OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS ACROSS THE REGION. WITHIN ABOUT AN HOURS TIME OF THE ONSET
OF PRECIP...VISIBILITIES QUICKLY DROP TO A QUARTER MILE OR LESS IN
HEAVY SNOW. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE AS THE SNOW ENTERS NORTHERN
AREAS.

EXPECT HEAVY SNOW TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. IN ADDITION...THERE IS A CLEAR BANDED SIGNATURE IN THE
12Z MODEL SUITE AND ALSO BANDED PRECIPITATION LINING UP ON CURRENT
RADAR ANIMATIONS ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA. IN
FACT...LIGHTNING IS NOTED IN MANY OBERVATIONS NEAR NYC. THIS
CONVECTION WILL ROLL NORTH...AND THUNDERSNOW IS A DISTINCT
POSSIBILITY THIS EVENING.

CURRENT THINKING...AND THE GRIDDED PACKAGE IS RELATIVELY UNCHANGED
FROM PREVIOUS PACKAGES THIS HOUR. HOWEVER...HAVE ADDED A FEW
ITEMS...

- MORE WIND IS EXPECTED FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...ESPECIALLY NEAR
THE COAST. WET SNOW AND WIND MAY LEAD TO POWER OUTAGES.

- HAVE UPPED SNOWFALL TOTALS BASED ON AFOREMENTIONED
BANDING BY AN INCH OR SO. SO FAR...PLENTY OF WATER IS IN THE
SNOWPACK

- ADDED SOME POCKETS OF SLEET FOR THE EVENING HOURS AS A BRIEF
PERIOD OF 0C AIR ARRIVES WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE H7 LOW TONIGHT.

SLEET MAY KEEP ACCUMULATIONS DOWN ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST.
HIGHEST SNOWFALL TOTALS...LOCALLY NEAR OR IN EXCESS OF A
FOOT...WILL ACCUMULATE IN THE BANDED PRECIPITATION OVER SOUTH-
CENTRAL AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HANGS BACK TO OUR WEST ON THANKSGIVING.
THIS...AND THE PROXIMITY OF AN INVERTED TROUGH HAS THE POTENTIAL
TO SET UP A CLUSTER OF SNOW SHOWERS ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST SOUTH
OF PORTLAND. MODELS ARE GIVING MIXED SIGNALS AS TO THE POTENTIAL
FOR A FULL NORLUN TROUGH EVENT AND EXACTLY WHERE THIS WOULD OCCUR
HOWEVER.

MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS THE POTENTIAL
TO PRODUCE MORE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY.
LINGERING CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH INVERTED TROUGH ACROSS SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND WILL HANG AROUND THROUGH EARLY NOON BEFORE DIMINISHING
LATER IN THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S NORTH AND LOWER TO MID 30S SOUTH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. AFTER A
MOSTLY CLEAR START TO THE NIGHT DOWNWIND OF THE MOUNTAINS VARIABLE
HIGH CLOUDS WILL PUSH IN FROM WEST. WILL SEE ANOTHER VERY CHILLY
NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS NORTH AND LOWER TO MID
TEENS SOUTH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY AND RETURN FLOW WILL
BEGIN TO BRING WARMER AIR BACK INTO THE REGION. BROAD AREA OF
OVER-RUNNING SETTING UP TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL
BRING VARIABLE CLOUDS TO THE REGION. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID
20S TO NEAR 30 NORTH AND IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S SOUTH.

PRETTY MUCH THE SAME FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AS OVER-RUNNING CONTINUES
ALONG WITH VARIABLE CLOUDINESS. AT THIS POINT EXPECT ANY SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY TO REMAIN NORTH AND WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA IN
STRONGER ISENTROPIC LIFT. WILL SEE A MILDER NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S NORTH AND LOWER TO MID 20S SOUTH.

BROAD AREA OF OVER-RUNNING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY
AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE REGION. EXPECT ANOTHER
MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY BUT WITH MILDER TEMPS. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY
RANGE THROUGH THE 40S FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.

COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL BLOW THROUGH
THE REGION DURING THE EARLY HOURS OF MONDAY MORNING. FRONT WILL
BE ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. WHICH SHOULD BE WELL
EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY DAYBREAK MONDAY.

COLDER AIR RETURNS TO THE NORTHEAST ON GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ON MONDAY.
ANY LINGERING CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH DURING THE MORNING
HOURS. EXPECT WINDS TO SLACK OFF SOMEWHAT IN THE AFTERNOON. WILL
REACH HIGH TEMPS DURING THE MORNING BEFORE DROPPING OFF IN THE
AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
BRINGING A SHORT STRETCH OF QUIET WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...AREAS OF LIFR THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT. CIGS AND VSBYS
LIFTING THEREAFTER. SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ON THANKSGIVING.

LONG TERM...VFR FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. MVFR/IFR CEILINGS
DEVELOPING SUNDAY...IMPROVING TO VFR MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS. FLAGS ARE UP FOR GALES FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. EXPECT
WINDS TO PEAK OUT NEAR STORM FORCE FOR A SHORT PERIOD
TONIGHT...BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING.

LONG TERM...SCA`S LIKELY SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MEZ007>009-
     012>014-018>028.
NH...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NHZ001>010-
     013-014.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KGYX 270328
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1028 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF CAPE COD WILL RACE NORTHEAST INTO THE
MARITIMES TONIGHT. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE
REGION ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE
WEST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE
AREA ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND WILL MOVE OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. A WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND
WILL CROSS THE REGION EARLY MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
BEHIND THE FRONT MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
1015 PM UPDATE: NO CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME. SNOW CONTINUES
WITH SOME SLEET MIXED IN ALONG THE COAST AT TIMES AS FCST. SAT PIX
AND RADAR INDICATE WRAPAROUND BANDING SNOWS DEVELOPING SO SOME
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. THIS
WILL MAKE THE FORECAST TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FOR THE STORM FAIRLY
CLOSE. WIDESPREAD POWER OUTAGES A PROBLEM FOR THE REST OF THE
NIGHT AS WINDS HAVE PICKED UP AND BECOME GUSTY. THE HEAVY WET SNOW
ON TREE LIMBS COMBINED WITH THE INCREASING WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
CAUSE ADDITIONAL POWER OUTAGES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

ON THE 10 PM WSW ADDED AN ADDITIONAL PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS
ACTION FOR PEOPLE USING GENERATORS.

720 PM UPDATE: FORCAST AMOUNTS ON TRACK. CENTER OF SFC LO JUST NW
OF 40N/70W BENCHMARK TRACKING NE. BANDS OF HVY SNOWFALL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE FA WITH SOME RATES OF 1-2 INCHES/HR AT TIMES. REPORTS
OF NUMEROUS POWER OUTAGES ACROSS SRN ME AND NH DUE TO THE HEAVY
WET SNOW WEIGHING DOWN BRANCHES...MORE OUTAGES ARE EXPECTED AS
ANOTHER BURST OF HEAVY PCPN DVLPS AND MOVES N AS THE SFC/MID LVL
LOW DEEPEN AND WRAPAROUND SNOWS DEVELOP AS IT PASSES OFF TO OUR E.
EXPECTING CONDITONS TO BEGIN TO WIND DOWN OVER SRN AREAS OF NH/ME
LATER TONIGHT. FCST SNOW AMTS LOOK GOOD ATTM WITH NO CHANGES TO
THE TOTALS.

PREV DISC:
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY NEAR CAPE HATTERAS THIS
AFTERNOON. FURTHER CYCLOGENESIS WILL TAKE PLACE AS THE SYSTEM
HEADS NORTHEAST TOWARDS CAPE COD.

ANY RAIN OR SLEET HAS QUICKLY CHANGED TO SNOW OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS ACROSS THE REGION. WITHIN ABOUT AN HOURS TIME OF THE ONSET
OF PRECIP...VISIBILITIES QUICKLY DROP TO A QUARTER MILE OR LESS IN
HEAVY SNOW. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE AS THE SNOW ENTERS NORTHERN
AREAS.

EXPECT HEAVY SNOW TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. IN ADDITION...THERE IS A CLEAR BANDED SIGNATURE IN THE
12Z MODEL SUITE AND ALSO BANDED PRECIPITATION LINING UP ON CURRENT
RADAR ANIMATIONS ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA. IN
FACT...LIGHTNING IS NOTED IN MANY OBERVATIONS NEAR NYC. THIS
CONVECTION WILL ROLL NORTH...AND THUNDERSNOW IS A DISTINCT
POSSIBILITY THIS EVENING.

CURRENT THINKING...AND THE GRIDDED PACKAGE IS RELATIVELY UNCHANGED
FROM PREVIOUS PACKAGES THIS HOUR. HOWEVER...HAVE ADDED A FEW
ITEMS...

- MORE WIND IS EXPECTED FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...ESPECIALLY NEAR
THE COAST. WET SNOW AND WIND MAY LEAD TO POWER OUTAGES.

- HAVE UPPED SNOWFALL TOTALS BASED ON AFOREMENTIONED
BANDING BY AN INCH OR SO. SO FAR...PLENTY OF WATER IS IN THE
SNOWPACK

- ADDED SOME POCKETS OF SLEET FOR THE EVENING HOURS AS A BRIEF
PERIOD OF 0C AIR ARRIVES WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE H7 LOW TONIGHT.

SLEET MAY KEEP ACCUMULATIONS DOWN ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST.
HIGHEST SNOWFALL TOTALS...LOCALLY NEAR OR IN EXCESS OF A
FOOT...WILL ACCUMULATE IN THE BANDED PRECIPITATION OVER SOUTH-
CENTRAL AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HANGS BACK TO OUR WEST ON THANKSGIVING.
THIS...AND THE PROXIMITY OF AN INVERTED TROUGH HAS THE POTENTIAL
TO SET UP A CLUSTER OF SNOW SHOWERS ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST SOUTH
OF PORTLAND. MODELS ARE GIVING MIXED SIGNALS AS TO THE POTENTIAL
FOR A FULL NORLUN TROUGH EVENT AND EXACTLY WHERE THIS WOULD OCCUR
HOWEVER.

MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS THE POTENTIAL
TO PRODUCE MORE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY.
LINGERING CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH INVERTED TROUGH ACROSS SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND WILL HANG AROUND THROUGH EARLY NOON BEFORE DIMINISHING
LATER IN THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S NORTH AND LOWER TO MID 30S SOUTH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. AFTER A
MOSTLY CLEAR START TO THE NIGHT DOWNWIND OF THE MOUNTAINS VARIABLE
HIGH CLOUDS WILL PUSH IN FROM WEST. WILL SEE ANOTHER VERY CHILLY
NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS NORTH AND LOWER TO MID
TEENS SOUTH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY AND RETURN FLOW WILL
BEGIN TO BRING WARMER AIR BACK INTO THE REGION. BROAD AREA OF
OVER-RUNNING SETTING UP TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL
BRING VARIABLE CLOUDS TO THE REGION. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID
20S TO NEAR 30 NORTH AND IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S SOUTH.

PRETTY MUCH THE SAME FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AS OVER-RUNNING CONTINUES
ALONG WITH VARIABLE CLOUDINESS. AT THIS POINT EXPECT ANY SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY TO REMAIN NORTH AND WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA IN
STRONGER ISENTROPIC LIFT. WILL SEE A MILDER NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S NORTH AND LOWER TO MID 20S SOUTH.

BROAD AREA OF OVER-RUNNING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY
AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE REGION. EXPECT ANOTHER
MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY BUT WITH MILDER TEMPS. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY
RANGE THROUGH THE 40S FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.

COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL BLOW THROUGH
THE REGION DURING THE EARLY HOURS OF MONDAY MORNING. FRONT WILL
BE ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. WHICH SHOULD BE WELL
EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY DAYBREAK MONDAY.

COLDER AIR RETURNS TO THE NORTHEAST ON GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ON MONDAY.
ANY LINGERING CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH DURING THE MORNING
HOURS. EXPECT WINDS TO SLACK OFF SOMEWHAT IN THE AFTERNOON. WILL
REACH HIGH TEMPS DURING THE MORNING BEFORE DROPPING OFF IN THE
AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
BRINGING A SHORT STRETCH OF QUIET WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...AREAS OF LIFR THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT. CIGS AND VSBYS
LIFTING THEREAFTER. SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ON THANKSGIVING.

LONG TERM...VFR FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. MVFR/IFR CEILINGS
DEVELOPING SUNDAY...IMPROVING TO VFR MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS. FLAGS ARE UP FOR GALES FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. EXPECT
WINDS TO PEAK OUT NEAR STORM FORCE FOR A SHORT PERIOD
TONIGHT...BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING.

LONG TERM...SCA`S LIKELY SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MEZ007>009-
     012>014-018>028.
NH...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NHZ001>010-
     013-014.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KGYX 270032
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
732 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF CAPE COD WILL RACE NORTHEAST INTO THE
MARITIMES TONIGHT. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE
REGION ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE
WEST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE
AREA ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND WILL MOVE OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. A WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND
WILL CROSS THE REGION EARLY MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
BEHIND THE FRONT MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
720 PM UPDATE: FORCAST AMOUNTS ON TRACK. CENTER OF SFC LO JUST NW
OF 40N/70W BENCHMARK TRACKING NE. BANDS OF HVY SNOWFALL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE FA WITH SOME RATES OF 1-2 INCHES/HR AT TIMES. REPORTS
OF NUMEROUS POWER OUTAGES ACROSS SRN ME AND NH DUE TO THE HEAVY
WET SNOW WEIGHING DOWN BRANCHES...MORE OUTAGES ARE EXPECTED AS
ANOTHER BURST OF HEAVY PCPN DVLPS AND MOVES N AS THE SFC/MID LVL
LOW DEEPEN AND WRAPAROUND SNOWS DEVELOP AS IT PASSES OFF TO OUR E.
EXPECTING CONDITONS TO BEGIN TO WIND DOWN OVER SRN AREAS OF NH/ME
LATER TONIGHT. FCST SNOW AMTS LOOK GOOD ATTM WITH NO CHANGES TO
THE TOTALS.

PREV DISC:
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY NEAR CAPE HATTERAS THIS
AFTERNOON. FURTHER CYCLOGENESIS WILL TAKE PLACE AS THE SYSTEM
HEADS NORTHEAST TOWARDS CAPE COD.

ANY RAIN OR SLEET HAS QUICKLY CHANGED TO SNOW OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS ACROSS THE REGION. WITHIN ABOUT AN HOURS TIME OF THE ONSET
OF PRECIP...VISIBILITIES QUICKLY DROP TO A QUARTER MILE OR LESS IN
HEAVY SNOW. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE AS THE SNOW ENTERS NORTHERN
AREAS.

EXPECT HEAVY SNOW TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. IN ADDITION...THERE IS A CLEAR BANDED SIGNATURE IN THE
12Z MODEL SUITE AND ALSO BANDED PRECIPITATION LINING UP ON CURRENT
RADAR ANIMATIONS ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA. IN
FACT...LIGHTNING IS NOTED IN MANY OBERVATIONS NEAR NYC. THIS
CONVECTION WILL ROLL NORTH...AND THUNDERSNOW IS A DISTINCT
POSSIBILITY THIS EVENING.

CURRENT THINKING...AND THE GRIDDED PACKAGE IS RELATIVELY UNCHANGED
FROM PREVIOUS PACKAGES THIS HOUR. HOWEVER...HAVE ADDED A FEW
ITEMS...

- MORE WIND IS EXPECTED FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...ESPECIALLY NEAR
THE COAST. WET SNOW AND WIND MAY LEAD TO POWER OUTAGES.

- HAVE UPPED SNOWFALL TOTALS BASED ON AFOREMENTIONED
BANDING BY AN INCH OR SO. SO FAR...PLENTY OF WATER IS IN THE
SNOWPACK

- ADDED SOME POCKETS OF SLEET FOR THE EVENING HOURS AS A BRIEF
PERIOD OF 0C AIR ARRIVES WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE H7 LOW TONIGHT.

SLEET MAY KEEP ACCUMULATIONS DOWN ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST.
HIGHEST SNOWFALL TOTALS...LOCALLY NEAR OR IN EXCESS OF A
FOOT...WILL ACCUMULATE IN THE BANDED PRECIPITATION OVER SOUTH-
CENTRAL AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HANGS BACK TO OUR WEST ON THANKSGIVING.
THIS...AND THE PROXIMITY OF AN INVERTED TROUGH HAS THE POTENTIAL
TO SET UP A CLUSTER OF SNOW SHOWERS ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST SOUTH
OF PORTLAND. MODELS ARE GIVING MIXED SIGNALS AS TO THE POTENTIAL
FOR A FULL NORLUN TROUGH EVENT AND EXACTLY WHERE THIS WOULD OCCUR
HOWEVER.

MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS THE POTENTIAL
TO PRODUCE MORE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY.
LINGERING CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH INVERTED TROUGH ACROSS SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND WILL HANG AROUND THROUGH EARLY NOON BEFORE DIMINISHING
LATER IN THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S NORTH AND LOWER TO MID 30S SOUTH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. AFTER A
MOSTLY CLEAR START TO THE NIGHT DOWNWIND OF THE MOUNTAINS VARIABLE
HIGH CLOUDS WILL PUSH IN FROM WEST. WILL SEE ANOTHER VERY CHILLY
NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS NORTH AND LOWER TO MID
TEENS SOUTH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY AND RETURN FLOW WILL
BEGIN TO BRING WARMER AIR BACK INTO THE REGION. BROAD AREA OF
OVER-RUNNING SETTING UP TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL
BRING VARIABLE CLOUDS TO THE REGION. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID
20S TO NEAR 30 NORTH AND IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S SOUTH.

PRETTY MUCH THE SAME FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AS OVER-RUNNING CONTINUES
ALONG WITH VARIABLE CLOUDINESS. AT THIS POINT EXPECT ANY SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY TO REMAIN NORTH AND WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA IN
STRONGER ISENTROPIC LIFT. WILL SEE A MILDER NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S NORTH AND LOWER TO MID 20S SOUTH.

BROAD AREA OF OVER-RUNNING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY
AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE REGION. EXPECT ANOTHER
MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY BUT WITH MILDER TEMPS. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY
RANGE THROUGH THE 40S FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.

COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL BLOW THROUGH
THE REGION DURING THE EARLY HOURS OF MONDAY MORNING. FRONT WILL
BE ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. WHICH SHOULD BE WELL
EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY DAYBREAK MONDAY.

COLDER AIR RETURNS TO THE NORTHEAST ON GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ON MONDAY.
ANY LINGERING CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH DURING THE MORNING
HOURS. EXPECT WINDS TO SLACK OFF SOMEWHAT IN THE AFTERNOON. WILL
REACH HIGH TEMPS DURING THE MORNING BEFORE DROPPING OFF IN THE
AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
BRINGING A SHORT STRETCH OF QUIET WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...AREAS OF LIFR THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT. CIGS AND VSBYS
LIFTING THEREAFTER. SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ON THANKSGIVING.

LONG TERM...VFR FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. MVFR/IFR CEILINGS
DEVELOPING SUNDAY...IMPROVING TO VFR MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS. FLAGS ARE UP FOR GALES FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. EXPECT
WINDS TO PEAK OUT NEAR STORM FORCE FOR A SHORT PERIOD
TONIGHT...BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING.

LONG TERM...SCA`S LIKELY SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MEZ007>009-
     012>014-018>028.
NH...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NHZ001>010-
     013-014.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CURTIS
SHORT TERM...CURTIS
LONG TERM...CEMPA
AVIATION...CEMPA/CURTIS
MARINE...CEMPA/CURTIS



000
FXUS61 KGYX 270032
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
732 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF CAPE COD WILL RACE NORTHEAST INTO THE
MARITIMES TONIGHT. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE
REGION ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE
WEST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE
AREA ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND WILL MOVE OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. A WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND
WILL CROSS THE REGION EARLY MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
BEHIND THE FRONT MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
720 PM UPDATE: FORCAST AMOUNTS ON TRACK. CENTER OF SFC LO JUST NW
OF 40N/70W BENCHMARK TRACKING NE. BANDS OF HVY SNOWFALL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE FA WITH SOME RATES OF 1-2 INCHES/HR AT TIMES. REPORTS
OF NUMEROUS POWER OUTAGES ACROSS SRN ME AND NH DUE TO THE HEAVY
WET SNOW WEIGHING DOWN BRANCHES...MORE OUTAGES ARE EXPECTED AS
ANOTHER BURST OF HEAVY PCPN DVLPS AND MOVES N AS THE SFC/MID LVL
LOW DEEPEN AND WRAPAROUND SNOWS DEVELOP AS IT PASSES OFF TO OUR E.
EXPECTING CONDITONS TO BEGIN TO WIND DOWN OVER SRN AREAS OF NH/ME
LATER TONIGHT. FCST SNOW AMTS LOOK GOOD ATTM WITH NO CHANGES TO
THE TOTALS.

PREV DISC:
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY NEAR CAPE HATTERAS THIS
AFTERNOON. FURTHER CYCLOGENESIS WILL TAKE PLACE AS THE SYSTEM
HEADS NORTHEAST TOWARDS CAPE COD.

ANY RAIN OR SLEET HAS QUICKLY CHANGED TO SNOW OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS ACROSS THE REGION. WITHIN ABOUT AN HOURS TIME OF THE ONSET
OF PRECIP...VISIBILITIES QUICKLY DROP TO A QUARTER MILE OR LESS IN
HEAVY SNOW. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE AS THE SNOW ENTERS NORTHERN
AREAS.

EXPECT HEAVY SNOW TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. IN ADDITION...THERE IS A CLEAR BANDED SIGNATURE IN THE
12Z MODEL SUITE AND ALSO BANDED PRECIPITATION LINING UP ON CURRENT
RADAR ANIMATIONS ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA. IN
FACT...LIGHTNING IS NOTED IN MANY OBERVATIONS NEAR NYC. THIS
CONVECTION WILL ROLL NORTH...AND THUNDERSNOW IS A DISTINCT
POSSIBILITY THIS EVENING.

CURRENT THINKING...AND THE GRIDDED PACKAGE IS RELATIVELY UNCHANGED
FROM PREVIOUS PACKAGES THIS HOUR. HOWEVER...HAVE ADDED A FEW
ITEMS...

- MORE WIND IS EXPECTED FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...ESPECIALLY NEAR
THE COAST. WET SNOW AND WIND MAY LEAD TO POWER OUTAGES.

- HAVE UPPED SNOWFALL TOTALS BASED ON AFOREMENTIONED
BANDING BY AN INCH OR SO. SO FAR...PLENTY OF WATER IS IN THE
SNOWPACK

- ADDED SOME POCKETS OF SLEET FOR THE EVENING HOURS AS A BRIEF
PERIOD OF 0C AIR ARRIVES WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE H7 LOW TONIGHT.

SLEET MAY KEEP ACCUMULATIONS DOWN ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST.
HIGHEST SNOWFALL TOTALS...LOCALLY NEAR OR IN EXCESS OF A
FOOT...WILL ACCUMULATE IN THE BANDED PRECIPITATION OVER SOUTH-
CENTRAL AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HANGS BACK TO OUR WEST ON THANKSGIVING.
THIS...AND THE PROXIMITY OF AN INVERTED TROUGH HAS THE POTENTIAL
TO SET UP A CLUSTER OF SNOW SHOWERS ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST SOUTH
OF PORTLAND. MODELS ARE GIVING MIXED SIGNALS AS TO THE POTENTIAL
FOR A FULL NORLUN TROUGH EVENT AND EXACTLY WHERE THIS WOULD OCCUR
HOWEVER.

MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS THE POTENTIAL
TO PRODUCE MORE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY.
LINGERING CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH INVERTED TROUGH ACROSS SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND WILL HANG AROUND THROUGH EARLY NOON BEFORE DIMINISHING
LATER IN THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S NORTH AND LOWER TO MID 30S SOUTH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. AFTER A
MOSTLY CLEAR START TO THE NIGHT DOWNWIND OF THE MOUNTAINS VARIABLE
HIGH CLOUDS WILL PUSH IN FROM WEST. WILL SEE ANOTHER VERY CHILLY
NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS NORTH AND LOWER TO MID
TEENS SOUTH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY AND RETURN FLOW WILL
BEGIN TO BRING WARMER AIR BACK INTO THE REGION. BROAD AREA OF
OVER-RUNNING SETTING UP TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL
BRING VARIABLE CLOUDS TO THE REGION. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID
20S TO NEAR 30 NORTH AND IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S SOUTH.

PRETTY MUCH THE SAME FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AS OVER-RUNNING CONTINUES
ALONG WITH VARIABLE CLOUDINESS. AT THIS POINT EXPECT ANY SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY TO REMAIN NORTH AND WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA IN
STRONGER ISENTROPIC LIFT. WILL SEE A MILDER NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S NORTH AND LOWER TO MID 20S SOUTH.

BROAD AREA OF OVER-RUNNING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY
AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE REGION. EXPECT ANOTHER
MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY BUT WITH MILDER TEMPS. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY
RANGE THROUGH THE 40S FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.

COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL BLOW THROUGH
THE REGION DURING THE EARLY HOURS OF MONDAY MORNING. FRONT WILL
BE ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. WHICH SHOULD BE WELL
EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY DAYBREAK MONDAY.

COLDER AIR RETURNS TO THE NORTHEAST ON GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ON MONDAY.
ANY LINGERING CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH DURING THE MORNING
HOURS. EXPECT WINDS TO SLACK OFF SOMEWHAT IN THE AFTERNOON. WILL
REACH HIGH TEMPS DURING THE MORNING BEFORE DROPPING OFF IN THE
AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
BRINGING A SHORT STRETCH OF QUIET WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...AREAS OF LIFR THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT. CIGS AND VSBYS
LIFTING THEREAFTER. SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ON THANKSGIVING.

LONG TERM...VFR FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. MVFR/IFR CEILINGS
DEVELOPING SUNDAY...IMPROVING TO VFR MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS. FLAGS ARE UP FOR GALES FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. EXPECT
WINDS TO PEAK OUT NEAR STORM FORCE FOR A SHORT PERIOD
TONIGHT...BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING.

LONG TERM...SCA`S LIKELY SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MEZ007>009-
     012>014-018>028.
NH...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NHZ001>010-
     013-014.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CURTIS
SHORT TERM...CURTIS
LONG TERM...CEMPA
AVIATION...CEMPA/CURTIS
MARINE...CEMPA/CURTIS



000
FXUS61 KGYX 270032
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
732 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF CAPE COD WILL RACE NORTHEAST INTO THE
MARITIMES TONIGHT. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE
REGION ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE
WEST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE
AREA ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND WILL MOVE OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. A WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND
WILL CROSS THE REGION EARLY MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
BEHIND THE FRONT MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
720 PM UPDATE: FORCAST AMOUNTS ON TRACK. CENTER OF SFC LO JUST NW
OF 40N/70W BENCHMARK TRACKING NE. BANDS OF HVY SNOWFALL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE FA WITH SOME RATES OF 1-2 INCHES/HR AT TIMES. REPORTS
OF NUMEROUS POWER OUTAGES ACROSS SRN ME AND NH DUE TO THE HEAVY
WET SNOW WEIGHING DOWN BRANCHES...MORE OUTAGES ARE EXPECTED AS
ANOTHER BURST OF HEAVY PCPN DVLPS AND MOVES N AS THE SFC/MID LVL
LOW DEEPEN AND WRAPAROUND SNOWS DEVELOP AS IT PASSES OFF TO OUR E.
EXPECTING CONDITONS TO BEGIN TO WIND DOWN OVER SRN AREAS OF NH/ME
LATER TONIGHT. FCST SNOW AMTS LOOK GOOD ATTM WITH NO CHANGES TO
THE TOTALS.

PREV DISC:
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY NEAR CAPE HATTERAS THIS
AFTERNOON. FURTHER CYCLOGENESIS WILL TAKE PLACE AS THE SYSTEM
HEADS NORTHEAST TOWARDS CAPE COD.

ANY RAIN OR SLEET HAS QUICKLY CHANGED TO SNOW OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS ACROSS THE REGION. WITHIN ABOUT AN HOURS TIME OF THE ONSET
OF PRECIP...VISIBILITIES QUICKLY DROP TO A QUARTER MILE OR LESS IN
HEAVY SNOW. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE AS THE SNOW ENTERS NORTHERN
AREAS.

EXPECT HEAVY SNOW TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. IN ADDITION...THERE IS A CLEAR BANDED SIGNATURE IN THE
12Z MODEL SUITE AND ALSO BANDED PRECIPITATION LINING UP ON CURRENT
RADAR ANIMATIONS ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA. IN
FACT...LIGHTNING IS NOTED IN MANY OBERVATIONS NEAR NYC. THIS
CONVECTION WILL ROLL NORTH...AND THUNDERSNOW IS A DISTINCT
POSSIBILITY THIS EVENING.

CURRENT THINKING...AND THE GRIDDED PACKAGE IS RELATIVELY UNCHANGED
FROM PREVIOUS PACKAGES THIS HOUR. HOWEVER...HAVE ADDED A FEW
ITEMS...

- MORE WIND IS EXPECTED FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...ESPECIALLY NEAR
THE COAST. WET SNOW AND WIND MAY LEAD TO POWER OUTAGES.

- HAVE UPPED SNOWFALL TOTALS BASED ON AFOREMENTIONED
BANDING BY AN INCH OR SO. SO FAR...PLENTY OF WATER IS IN THE
SNOWPACK

- ADDED SOME POCKETS OF SLEET FOR THE EVENING HOURS AS A BRIEF
PERIOD OF 0C AIR ARRIVES WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE H7 LOW TONIGHT.

SLEET MAY KEEP ACCUMULATIONS DOWN ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST.
HIGHEST SNOWFALL TOTALS...LOCALLY NEAR OR IN EXCESS OF A
FOOT...WILL ACCUMULATE IN THE BANDED PRECIPITATION OVER SOUTH-
CENTRAL AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HANGS BACK TO OUR WEST ON THANKSGIVING.
THIS...AND THE PROXIMITY OF AN INVERTED TROUGH HAS THE POTENTIAL
TO SET UP A CLUSTER OF SNOW SHOWERS ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST SOUTH
OF PORTLAND. MODELS ARE GIVING MIXED SIGNALS AS TO THE POTENTIAL
FOR A FULL NORLUN TROUGH EVENT AND EXACTLY WHERE THIS WOULD OCCUR
HOWEVER.

MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS THE POTENTIAL
TO PRODUCE MORE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY.
LINGERING CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH INVERTED TROUGH ACROSS SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND WILL HANG AROUND THROUGH EARLY NOON BEFORE DIMINISHING
LATER IN THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S NORTH AND LOWER TO MID 30S SOUTH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. AFTER A
MOSTLY CLEAR START TO THE NIGHT DOWNWIND OF THE MOUNTAINS VARIABLE
HIGH CLOUDS WILL PUSH IN FROM WEST. WILL SEE ANOTHER VERY CHILLY
NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS NORTH AND LOWER TO MID
TEENS SOUTH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY AND RETURN FLOW WILL
BEGIN TO BRING WARMER AIR BACK INTO THE REGION. BROAD AREA OF
OVER-RUNNING SETTING UP TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL
BRING VARIABLE CLOUDS TO THE REGION. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID
20S TO NEAR 30 NORTH AND IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S SOUTH.

PRETTY MUCH THE SAME FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AS OVER-RUNNING CONTINUES
ALONG WITH VARIABLE CLOUDINESS. AT THIS POINT EXPECT ANY SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY TO REMAIN NORTH AND WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA IN
STRONGER ISENTROPIC LIFT. WILL SEE A MILDER NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S NORTH AND LOWER TO MID 20S SOUTH.

BROAD AREA OF OVER-RUNNING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY
AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE REGION. EXPECT ANOTHER
MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY BUT WITH MILDER TEMPS. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY
RANGE THROUGH THE 40S FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.

COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL BLOW THROUGH
THE REGION DURING THE EARLY HOURS OF MONDAY MORNING. FRONT WILL
BE ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. WHICH SHOULD BE WELL
EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY DAYBREAK MONDAY.

COLDER AIR RETURNS TO THE NORTHEAST ON GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ON MONDAY.
ANY LINGERING CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH DURING THE MORNING
HOURS. EXPECT WINDS TO SLACK OFF SOMEWHAT IN THE AFTERNOON. WILL
REACH HIGH TEMPS DURING THE MORNING BEFORE DROPPING OFF IN THE
AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
BRINGING A SHORT STRETCH OF QUIET WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...AREAS OF LIFR THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT. CIGS AND VSBYS
LIFTING THEREAFTER. SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ON THANKSGIVING.

LONG TERM...VFR FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. MVFR/IFR CEILINGS
DEVELOPING SUNDAY...IMPROVING TO VFR MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS. FLAGS ARE UP FOR GALES FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. EXPECT
WINDS TO PEAK OUT NEAR STORM FORCE FOR A SHORT PERIOD
TONIGHT...BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING.

LONG TERM...SCA`S LIKELY SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MEZ007>009-
     012>014-018>028.
NH...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NHZ001>010-
     013-014.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CURTIS
SHORT TERM...CURTIS
LONG TERM...CEMPA
AVIATION...CEMPA/CURTIS
MARINE...CEMPA/CURTIS



000
FXUS61 KGYX 270032
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
732 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF CAPE COD WILL RACE NORTHEAST INTO THE
MARITIMES TONIGHT. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE
REGION ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE
WEST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE
AREA ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND WILL MOVE OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. A WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND
WILL CROSS THE REGION EARLY MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
BEHIND THE FRONT MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
720 PM UPDATE: FORCAST AMOUNTS ON TRACK. CENTER OF SFC LO JUST NW
OF 40N/70W BENCHMARK TRACKING NE. BANDS OF HVY SNOWFALL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE FA WITH SOME RATES OF 1-2 INCHES/HR AT TIMES. REPORTS
OF NUMEROUS POWER OUTAGES ACROSS SRN ME AND NH DUE TO THE HEAVY
WET SNOW WEIGHING DOWN BRANCHES...MORE OUTAGES ARE EXPECTED AS
ANOTHER BURST OF HEAVY PCPN DVLPS AND MOVES N AS THE SFC/MID LVL
LOW DEEPEN AND WRAPAROUND SNOWS DEVELOP AS IT PASSES OFF TO OUR E.
EXPECTING CONDITONS TO BEGIN TO WIND DOWN OVER SRN AREAS OF NH/ME
LATER TONIGHT. FCST SNOW AMTS LOOK GOOD ATTM WITH NO CHANGES TO
THE TOTALS.

PREV DISC:
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY NEAR CAPE HATTERAS THIS
AFTERNOON. FURTHER CYCLOGENESIS WILL TAKE PLACE AS THE SYSTEM
HEADS NORTHEAST TOWARDS CAPE COD.

ANY RAIN OR SLEET HAS QUICKLY CHANGED TO SNOW OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS ACROSS THE REGION. WITHIN ABOUT AN HOURS TIME OF THE ONSET
OF PRECIP...VISIBILITIES QUICKLY DROP TO A QUARTER MILE OR LESS IN
HEAVY SNOW. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE AS THE SNOW ENTERS NORTHERN
AREAS.

EXPECT HEAVY SNOW TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. IN ADDITION...THERE IS A CLEAR BANDED SIGNATURE IN THE
12Z MODEL SUITE AND ALSO BANDED PRECIPITATION LINING UP ON CURRENT
RADAR ANIMATIONS ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA. IN
FACT...LIGHTNING IS NOTED IN MANY OBERVATIONS NEAR NYC. THIS
CONVECTION WILL ROLL NORTH...AND THUNDERSNOW IS A DISTINCT
POSSIBILITY THIS EVENING.

CURRENT THINKING...AND THE GRIDDED PACKAGE IS RELATIVELY UNCHANGED
FROM PREVIOUS PACKAGES THIS HOUR. HOWEVER...HAVE ADDED A FEW
ITEMS...

- MORE WIND IS EXPECTED FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...ESPECIALLY NEAR
THE COAST. WET SNOW AND WIND MAY LEAD TO POWER OUTAGES.

- HAVE UPPED SNOWFALL TOTALS BASED ON AFOREMENTIONED
BANDING BY AN INCH OR SO. SO FAR...PLENTY OF WATER IS IN THE
SNOWPACK

- ADDED SOME POCKETS OF SLEET FOR THE EVENING HOURS AS A BRIEF
PERIOD OF 0C AIR ARRIVES WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE H7 LOW TONIGHT.

SLEET MAY KEEP ACCUMULATIONS DOWN ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST.
HIGHEST SNOWFALL TOTALS...LOCALLY NEAR OR IN EXCESS OF A
FOOT...WILL ACCUMULATE IN THE BANDED PRECIPITATION OVER SOUTH-
CENTRAL AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HANGS BACK TO OUR WEST ON THANKSGIVING.
THIS...AND THE PROXIMITY OF AN INVERTED TROUGH HAS THE POTENTIAL
TO SET UP A CLUSTER OF SNOW SHOWERS ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST SOUTH
OF PORTLAND. MODELS ARE GIVING MIXED SIGNALS AS TO THE POTENTIAL
FOR A FULL NORLUN TROUGH EVENT AND EXACTLY WHERE THIS WOULD OCCUR
HOWEVER.

MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS THE POTENTIAL
TO PRODUCE MORE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY.
LINGERING CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH INVERTED TROUGH ACROSS SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND WILL HANG AROUND THROUGH EARLY NOON BEFORE DIMINISHING
LATER IN THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S NORTH AND LOWER TO MID 30S SOUTH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. AFTER A
MOSTLY CLEAR START TO THE NIGHT DOWNWIND OF THE MOUNTAINS VARIABLE
HIGH CLOUDS WILL PUSH IN FROM WEST. WILL SEE ANOTHER VERY CHILLY
NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS NORTH AND LOWER TO MID
TEENS SOUTH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY AND RETURN FLOW WILL
BEGIN TO BRING WARMER AIR BACK INTO THE REGION. BROAD AREA OF
OVER-RUNNING SETTING UP TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL
BRING VARIABLE CLOUDS TO THE REGION. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID
20S TO NEAR 30 NORTH AND IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S SOUTH.

PRETTY MUCH THE SAME FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AS OVER-RUNNING CONTINUES
ALONG WITH VARIABLE CLOUDINESS. AT THIS POINT EXPECT ANY SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY TO REMAIN NORTH AND WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA IN
STRONGER ISENTROPIC LIFT. WILL SEE A MILDER NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S NORTH AND LOWER TO MID 20S SOUTH.

BROAD AREA OF OVER-RUNNING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY
AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE REGION. EXPECT ANOTHER
MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY BUT WITH MILDER TEMPS. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY
RANGE THROUGH THE 40S FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.

COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL BLOW THROUGH
THE REGION DURING THE EARLY HOURS OF MONDAY MORNING. FRONT WILL
BE ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. WHICH SHOULD BE WELL
EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY DAYBREAK MONDAY.

COLDER AIR RETURNS TO THE NORTHEAST ON GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ON MONDAY.
ANY LINGERING CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH DURING THE MORNING
HOURS. EXPECT WINDS TO SLACK OFF SOMEWHAT IN THE AFTERNOON. WILL
REACH HIGH TEMPS DURING THE MORNING BEFORE DROPPING OFF IN THE
AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
BRINGING A SHORT STRETCH OF QUIET WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...AREAS OF LIFR THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT. CIGS AND VSBYS
LIFTING THEREAFTER. SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ON THANKSGIVING.

LONG TERM...VFR FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. MVFR/IFR CEILINGS
DEVELOPING SUNDAY...IMPROVING TO VFR MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS. FLAGS ARE UP FOR GALES FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. EXPECT
WINDS TO PEAK OUT NEAR STORM FORCE FOR A SHORT PERIOD
TONIGHT...BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING.

LONG TERM...SCA`S LIKELY SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MEZ007>009-
     012>014-018>028.
NH...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NHZ001>010-
     013-014.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CURTIS
SHORT TERM...CURTIS
LONG TERM...CEMPA
AVIATION...CEMPA/CURTIS
MARINE...CEMPA/CURTIS



000
FXUS61 KCAR 270032
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
732 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK JUST EAST OF THE GULF OF MAINE TO SOUTHERN
NOVA SCOTIA TONIGHT...THEN EXIT ACROSS THE MARITIMES THURSDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AND MOVES EAST OF
THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPDATE...
INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND COAST WILL TRACK JUST EAST OF THE GULF OF MAINE TO
SOUTHERN NOVA SCOTIA OVERNIGHT. PRECIPITATION WITH THE LOW WILL BE
MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...WITH
THE SNOW HEAVY AT TIMES. HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND
CRITICAL THICKNESSES INDICATE THAT THE SNOW COULD MIX WITH SLEET
AT TIMES ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS...PARTICULARLY NEARER THE COAST.
CURRENT STORM TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS STILL APPEAR ON TARGET WITH
NO CHANGES TO THE CURRENT WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES. HAVE UPDATED
THE FORECAST TO ADJUST FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SNOW WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES ESPECIALLY CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS
THIS EVENING WITH SNOWFALL RATES AROUND 2 INCHES PER HOUR AT TIMES
FROM ABOUT HOULTON SOUTHWEST. A BIT OF A DECREASE IN INTENSITY
AFTER MIDNIGHT, WITH SNOW ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST BY MID MORNING
THURSDAY. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS MAY PERSIST IN THE AFTERNOON, BUT
NOTHING MAJOR.

WINDS WILL BE AN ISSUE WITH THIS STORM, WITH GUSTS 35 TO 45 MPH
ESPECIALLY COASTAL DOWNEAST. THIS COULD LEAD TO SCATTERED POWER
OUTAGES WITH THE WIND COUPLED WITH THE WET SNOW. DON`T THINK THE
WINDS WILL BE TOO MUCH OF AN ISSUE UP NORTH, THOUGH THERE COULD
BE SOME DRIFTING OF THE SNOW WITH ITS SOMEWHAT LOWER DENSITY UP
NORTH.
&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MARITIMES THURSDAY NIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST ALONG WITH A COLDER AIR MASS. A WEAK 500 MB TROUGH WILL CROSS
THE STATE DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. WILL USE A MODEL CONSENSUS FOR
POPS...SKY AND QPF AND BLEND THE GFS AND ECMWF. FOR THE
TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT WILL USE THE SUPER BLEND.
&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE STATE SATURDAY THEN MOVE EAST
INTO THE ATLANTIC SATURDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE VICINITY OF JAMES BAY SUNDAY. THIS
WILL RESULT IN A STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS NEW ENGLAND CAUSING
A WARM FRONT TO MOVE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE STATE. OVER RUNNING
PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP IN THE WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. PRECIPITATION WILL START AS SNOW THEN CHANGE TO MIXED THEN
RAIN AS TEMPERATURES WARM ALOFT. A STRONG COLD FRONT IS THEN
EXPECTED TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND CROSS THE
STATE EARLY MONDAY. STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL OCCUR BEHIND THIS
FRONT LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL APPROACH
FROM THE WEST AND CREST OVER THE STATE LATE TUESDAY. WILL USE THE
SUPERBLEND TO POPULATE GRIDS.
&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM...IFR TO VLIFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN IMPROVE TO MVFR LEVELS DOWNEAST
LATE TONIGHT. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION
EARLY THURSDAY. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS COULD PERSIST ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS LATER THURSDAY...WITH VFR CONDITIONS DOWNEAST.
GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY.

SHORT AND LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY AND EARLY MONDAY.
VFR CONDITIONS LATE MONDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM...A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL
WATERS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON. VISIBILITIES WILL BE
REDUCED IN SNOW...RAIN AND SLEET TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

SHORT AND LONG TERM...FOR WINDS: HAVE USED THE NAM12 UNTIL LATE
SATURDAY THEN TRANSITION TO THE SUPER BLEND WINDS. FOR WAVES: LONG
PERIOD SOUTHERLY WAVE SYSTEM GENERATED IN EASTERN SECTOR OF EAST
COAST STORM ON 27TH WILL PERSIST INTO SATURDAY NIGHT THEN SUBSIDE
EARLY SATURDAY. EXPECT OFF-SHORE LOCAL FETCH AS HIGH PRESSURE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST SUNDAY. EXPECT NEW SOUTHERLY FETCH TO
DEVELOP LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
EXPECT WAVES TO BUILD 6 TO 10 FEET/8-10 SECONDS IN THIS FETCH.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MEZ002-
     004>006-010-011-015>017-029>032.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MEZ001-003.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...NORCROSS/FOISY
SHORT TERM...MIGNONE
LONG TERM...MIGNONE
AVIATION...NORCROSS/MIGNONE
MARINE...NORCROSS/MIGNONE




000
FXUS61 KGYX 270031
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
731 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF CAPE COD WILL RACE NORTHEAST INTO THE
MARITIMES TONIGHT. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE
REGION ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE
WEST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE
AREA ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND WILL MOVE OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. A WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND
WILL CROSS THE REGION EARLY MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
BEHIND THE FRONT MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
720 PM UPDATE: FORCAST AMOUNTS ON TRACK. CENTER OF SFC LO JUST NW
OF 40N/70W BENCHMARK TRACKING NE. BANDS OF HVY SNOWFALL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE FA WITH SOME RATES OF 1-2 INCHES/HR AT TIMES. REPORTS
OF NUMEROUS POWER OUTAGES ACROSS SRN ME AND NH DUE TO THE HEAVY
WET SNOW WEIGHING DOWN BRANCHES...MORE OUTAGES ARE EXPECTED AS
ANOTHER BURST OF HEAVY PCPN DVLPS AND MOVES N AS THE SFC/MID LVL
LOW DEEPEN AND WRAPAROUND SNOWS DEVELOP AS IT PASSES OFF TO OUR E.
EXPECTING CONDITONS TO BEGIN TO WIND DOWN OVER SRN AREAS OF NH/ME
LATER TONIGHT. FCST SNOW AMTS LOOK GOOD ATTM WITH NO CHANGES TO
THE TOTALS.


LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY NEAR CAPE HATTERAS THIS
AFTERNOON. FURTHER CYCLOGENESIS WILL TAKE PLACE AS THE SYSTEM
HEADS NORTHEAST TOWARDS CAPE COD.

ANY RAIN OR SLEET HAS QUICKLY CHANGED TO SNOW OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS ACROSS THE REGION. WITHIN ABOUT AN HOURS TIME OF THE ONSET
OF PRECIP...VISIBILITIES QUICKLY DROP TO A QUARTER MILE OR LESS IN
HEAVY SNOW. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE AS THE SNOW ENTERS NORTHERN
AREAS.

EXPECT HEAVY SNOW TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. IN ADDITION...THERE IS A CLEAR BANDED SIGNATURE IN THE
12Z MODEL SUITE AND ALSO BANDED PRECIPITATION LINING UP ON CURRENT
RADAR ANIMATIONS ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA. IN
FACT...LIGHTNING IS NOTED IN MANY OBERVATIONS NEAR NYC. THIS
CONVECTION WILL ROLL NORTH...AND THUNDERSNOW IS A DISTINCT
POSSIBILITY THIS EVENING.

CURRENT THINKING...AND THE GRIDDED PACKAGE IS RELATIVELY UNCHANGED
FROM PREVIOUS PACKAGES THIS HOUR. HOWEVER...HAVE ADDED A FEW
ITEMS...

- MORE WIND IS EXPECTED FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...ESPECIALLY NEAR
THE COAST. WET SNOW AND WIND MAY LEAD TO POWER OUTAGES.

- HAVE UPPED SNOWFALL TOTALS BASED ON AFOREMENTIONED
BANDING BY AN INCH OR SO. SO FAR...PLENTY OF WATER IS IN THE
SNOWPACK

- ADDED SOME POCKETS OF SLEET FOR THE EVENING HOURS AS A BRIEF
PERIOD OF 0C AIR ARRIVES WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE H7 LOW TONIGHT.

SLEET MAY KEEP ACCUMULATIONS DOWN ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST.
HIGHEST SNOWFALL TOTALS...LOCALLY NEAR OR IN EXCESS OF A
FOOT...WILL ACCUMULATE IN THE BANDED PRECIPITATION OVER SOUTH-
CENTRAL AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HANGS BACK TO OUR WEST ON THANKSGIVING.
THIS...AND THE PROXIMITY OF AN INVERTED TROUGH HAS THE POTENTIAL
TO SET UP A CLUSTER OF SNOW SHOWERS ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST SOUTH
OF PORTLAND. MODELS ARE GIVING MIXED SIGNALS AS TO THE POTENTIAL
FOR A FULL NORLUN TROUGH EVENT AND EXACTLY WHERE THIS WOULD OCCUR
HOWEVER.

MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS THE POTENTIAL
TO PRODUCE MORE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY.
LINGERING CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH INVERTED TROUGH ACROSS SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND WILL HANG AROUND THROUGH EARLY NOON BEFORE DIMINISHING
LATER IN THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S NORTH AND LOWER TO MID 30S SOUTH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. AFTER A
MOSTLY CLEAR START TO THE NIGHT DOWNWIND OF THE MOUNTAINS VARIABLE
HIGH CLOUDS WILL PUSH IN FROM WEST. WILL SEE ANOTHER VERY CHILLY
NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS NORTH AND LOWER TO MID
TEENS SOUTH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY AND RETURN FLOW WILL
BEGIN TO BRING WARMER AIR BACK INTO THE REGION. BROAD AREA OF
OVER-RUNNING SETTING UP TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL
BRING VARIABLE CLOUDS TO THE REGION. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID
20S TO NEAR 30 NORTH AND IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S SOUTH.

PRETTY MUCH THE SAME FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AS OVER-RUNNING CONTINUES
ALONG WITH VARIABLE CLOUDINESS. AT THIS POINT EXPECT ANY SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY TO REMAIN NORTH AND WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA IN
STRONGER ISENTROPIC LIFT. WILL SEE A MILDER NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S NORTH AND LOWER TO MID 20S SOUTH.

BROAD AREA OF OVER-RUNNING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY
AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE REGION. EXPECT ANOTHER
MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY BUT WITH MILDER TEMPS. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY
RANGE THROUGH THE 40S FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.

COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL BLOW THROUGH
THE REGION DURING THE EARLY HOURS OF MONDAY MORNING. FRONT WILL
BE ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. WHICH SHOULD BE WELL
EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY DAYBREAK MONDAY.

COLDER AIR RETURNS TO THE NORTHEAST ON GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ON MONDAY.
ANY LINGERING CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH DURING THE MORNING
HOURS. EXPECT WINDS TO SLACK OFF SOMEWHAT IN THE AFTERNOON. WILL
REACH HIGH TEMPS DURING THE MORNING BEFORE DROPPING OFF IN THE
AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
BRINGING A SHORT STRETCH OF QUIET WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...AREAS OF LIFR THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT. CIGS AND VSBYS
LIFTING THEREAFTER. SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ON THANKSGIVING.

LONG TERM...VFR FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. MVFR/IFR CEILINGS
DEVELOPING SUNDAY...IMPROVING TO VFR MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS. FLAGS ARE UP FOR GALES FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. EXPECT
WINDS TO PEAK OUT NEAR STORM FORCE FOR A SHORT PERIOD
TONIGHT...BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING.

LONG TERM...SCA`S LIKELY SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MEZ007>009-
     012>014-018>028.
NH...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NHZ001>010-
     013-014.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KGYX 270031
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
731 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF CAPE COD WILL RACE NORTHEAST INTO THE
MARITIMES TONIGHT. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE
REGION ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE
WEST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE
AREA ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND WILL MOVE OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. A WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND
WILL CROSS THE REGION EARLY MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
BEHIND THE FRONT MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
720 PM UPDATE: FORCAST AMOUNTS ON TRACK. CENTER OF SFC LO JUST NW
OF 40N/70W BENCHMARK TRACKING NE. BANDS OF HVY SNOWFALL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE FA WITH SOME RATES OF 1-2 INCHES/HR AT TIMES. REPORTS
OF NUMEROUS POWER OUTAGES ACROSS SRN ME AND NH DUE TO THE HEAVY
WET SNOW WEIGHING DOWN BRANCHES...MORE OUTAGES ARE EXPECTED AS
ANOTHER BURST OF HEAVY PCPN DVLPS AND MOVES N AS THE SFC/MID LVL
LOW DEEPEN AND WRAPAROUND SNOWS DEVELOP AS IT PASSES OFF TO OUR E.
EXPECTING CONDITONS TO BEGIN TO WIND DOWN OVER SRN AREAS OF NH/ME
LATER TONIGHT. FCST SNOW AMTS LOOK GOOD ATTM WITH NO CHANGES TO
THE TOTALS.


LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY NEAR CAPE HATTERAS THIS
AFTERNOON. FURTHER CYCLOGENESIS WILL TAKE PLACE AS THE SYSTEM
HEADS NORTHEAST TOWARDS CAPE COD.

ANY RAIN OR SLEET HAS QUICKLY CHANGED TO SNOW OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS ACROSS THE REGION. WITHIN ABOUT AN HOURS TIME OF THE ONSET
OF PRECIP...VISIBILITIES QUICKLY DROP TO A QUARTER MILE OR LESS IN
HEAVY SNOW. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE AS THE SNOW ENTERS NORTHERN
AREAS.

EXPECT HEAVY SNOW TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. IN ADDITION...THERE IS A CLEAR BANDED SIGNATURE IN THE
12Z MODEL SUITE AND ALSO BANDED PRECIPITATION LINING UP ON CURRENT
RADAR ANIMATIONS ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA. IN
FACT...LIGHTNING IS NOTED IN MANY OBERVATIONS NEAR NYC. THIS
CONVECTION WILL ROLL NORTH...AND THUNDERSNOW IS A DISTINCT
POSSIBILITY THIS EVENING.

CURRENT THINKING...AND THE GRIDDED PACKAGE IS RELATIVELY UNCHANGED
FROM PREVIOUS PACKAGES THIS HOUR. HOWEVER...HAVE ADDED A FEW
ITEMS...

- MORE WIND IS EXPECTED FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...ESPECIALLY NEAR
THE COAST. WET SNOW AND WIND MAY LEAD TO POWER OUTAGES.

- HAVE UPPED SNOWFALL TOTALS BASED ON AFOREMENTIONED
BANDING BY AN INCH OR SO. SO FAR...PLENTY OF WATER IS IN THE
SNOWPACK

- ADDED SOME POCKETS OF SLEET FOR THE EVENING HOURS AS A BRIEF
PERIOD OF 0C AIR ARRIVES WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE H7 LOW TONIGHT.

SLEET MAY KEEP ACCUMULATIONS DOWN ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST.
HIGHEST SNOWFALL TOTALS...LOCALLY NEAR OR IN EXCESS OF A
FOOT...WILL ACCUMULATE IN THE BANDED PRECIPITATION OVER SOUTH-
CENTRAL AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HANGS BACK TO OUR WEST ON THANKSGIVING.
THIS...AND THE PROXIMITY OF AN INVERTED TROUGH HAS THE POTENTIAL
TO SET UP A CLUSTER OF SNOW SHOWERS ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST SOUTH
OF PORTLAND. MODELS ARE GIVING MIXED SIGNALS AS TO THE POTENTIAL
FOR A FULL NORLUN TROUGH EVENT AND EXACTLY WHERE THIS WOULD OCCUR
HOWEVER.

MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS THE POTENTIAL
TO PRODUCE MORE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY.
LINGERING CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH INVERTED TROUGH ACROSS SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND WILL HANG AROUND THROUGH EARLY NOON BEFORE DIMINISHING
LATER IN THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S NORTH AND LOWER TO MID 30S SOUTH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. AFTER A
MOSTLY CLEAR START TO THE NIGHT DOWNWIND OF THE MOUNTAINS VARIABLE
HIGH CLOUDS WILL PUSH IN FROM WEST. WILL SEE ANOTHER VERY CHILLY
NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS NORTH AND LOWER TO MID
TEENS SOUTH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY AND RETURN FLOW WILL
BEGIN TO BRING WARMER AIR BACK INTO THE REGION. BROAD AREA OF
OVER-RUNNING SETTING UP TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL
BRING VARIABLE CLOUDS TO THE REGION. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID
20S TO NEAR 30 NORTH AND IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S SOUTH.

PRETTY MUCH THE SAME FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AS OVER-RUNNING CONTINUES
ALONG WITH VARIABLE CLOUDINESS. AT THIS POINT EXPECT ANY SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY TO REMAIN NORTH AND WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA IN
STRONGER ISENTROPIC LIFT. WILL SEE A MILDER NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S NORTH AND LOWER TO MID 20S SOUTH.

BROAD AREA OF OVER-RUNNING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY
AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE REGION. EXPECT ANOTHER
MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY BUT WITH MILDER TEMPS. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY
RANGE THROUGH THE 40S FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.

COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL BLOW THROUGH
THE REGION DURING THE EARLY HOURS OF MONDAY MORNING. FRONT WILL
BE ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. WHICH SHOULD BE WELL
EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY DAYBREAK MONDAY.

COLDER AIR RETURNS TO THE NORTHEAST ON GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ON MONDAY.
ANY LINGERING CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH DURING THE MORNING
HOURS. EXPECT WINDS TO SLACK OFF SOMEWHAT IN THE AFTERNOON. WILL
REACH HIGH TEMPS DURING THE MORNING BEFORE DROPPING OFF IN THE
AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
BRINGING A SHORT STRETCH OF QUIET WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...AREAS OF LIFR THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT. CIGS AND VSBYS
LIFTING THEREAFTER. SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ON THANKSGIVING.

LONG TERM...VFR FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. MVFR/IFR CEILINGS
DEVELOPING SUNDAY...IMPROVING TO VFR MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS. FLAGS ARE UP FOR GALES FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. EXPECT
WINDS TO PEAK OUT NEAR STORM FORCE FOR A SHORT PERIOD
TONIGHT...BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING.

LONG TERM...SCA`S LIKELY SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MEZ007>009-
     012>014-018>028.
NH...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NHZ001>010-
     013-014.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KGYX 270031
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
731 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF CAPE COD WILL RACE NORTHEAST INTO THE
MARITIMES TONIGHT. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE
REGION ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE
WEST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE
AREA ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND WILL MOVE OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. A WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND
WILL CROSS THE REGION EARLY MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
BEHIND THE FRONT MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
720 PM UPDATE: FORCAST AMOUNTS ON TRACK. CENTER OF SFC LO JUST NW
OF 40N/70W BENCHMARK TRACKING NE. BANDS OF HVY SNOWFALL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE FA WITH SOME RATES OF 1-2 INCHES/HR AT TIMES. REPORTS
OF NUMEROUS POWER OUTAGES ACROSS SRN ME AND NH DUE TO THE HEAVY
WET SNOW WEIGHING DOWN BRANCHES...MORE OUTAGES ARE EXPECTED AS
ANOTHER BURST OF HEAVY PCPN DVLPS AND MOVES N AS THE SFC/MID LVL
LOW DEEPEN AND WRAPAROUND SNOWS DEVELOP AS IT PASSES OFF TO OUR E.
EXPECTING CONDITONS TO BEGIN TO WIND DOWN OVER SRN AREAS OF NH/ME
LATER TONIGHT. FCST SNOW AMTS LOOK GOOD ATTM WITH NO CHANGES TO
THE TOTALS.


LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY NEAR CAPE HATTERAS THIS
AFTERNOON. FURTHER CYCLOGENESIS WILL TAKE PLACE AS THE SYSTEM
HEADS NORTHEAST TOWARDS CAPE COD.

ANY RAIN OR SLEET HAS QUICKLY CHANGED TO SNOW OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS ACROSS THE REGION. WITHIN ABOUT AN HOURS TIME OF THE ONSET
OF PRECIP...VISIBILITIES QUICKLY DROP TO A QUARTER MILE OR LESS IN
HEAVY SNOW. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE AS THE SNOW ENTERS NORTHERN
AREAS.

EXPECT HEAVY SNOW TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. IN ADDITION...THERE IS A CLEAR BANDED SIGNATURE IN THE
12Z MODEL SUITE AND ALSO BANDED PRECIPITATION LINING UP ON CURRENT
RADAR ANIMATIONS ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA. IN
FACT...LIGHTNING IS NOTED IN MANY OBERVATIONS NEAR NYC. THIS
CONVECTION WILL ROLL NORTH...AND THUNDERSNOW IS A DISTINCT
POSSIBILITY THIS EVENING.

CURRENT THINKING...AND THE GRIDDED PACKAGE IS RELATIVELY UNCHANGED
FROM PREVIOUS PACKAGES THIS HOUR. HOWEVER...HAVE ADDED A FEW
ITEMS...

- MORE WIND IS EXPECTED FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...ESPECIALLY NEAR
THE COAST. WET SNOW AND WIND MAY LEAD TO POWER OUTAGES.

- HAVE UPPED SNOWFALL TOTALS BASED ON AFOREMENTIONED
BANDING BY AN INCH OR SO. SO FAR...PLENTY OF WATER IS IN THE
SNOWPACK

- ADDED SOME POCKETS OF SLEET FOR THE EVENING HOURS AS A BRIEF
PERIOD OF 0C AIR ARRIVES WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE H7 LOW TONIGHT.

SLEET MAY KEEP ACCUMULATIONS DOWN ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST.
HIGHEST SNOWFALL TOTALS...LOCALLY NEAR OR IN EXCESS OF A
FOOT...WILL ACCUMULATE IN THE BANDED PRECIPITATION OVER SOUTH-
CENTRAL AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HANGS BACK TO OUR WEST ON THANKSGIVING.
THIS...AND THE PROXIMITY OF AN INVERTED TROUGH HAS THE POTENTIAL
TO SET UP A CLUSTER OF SNOW SHOWERS ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST SOUTH
OF PORTLAND. MODELS ARE GIVING MIXED SIGNALS AS TO THE POTENTIAL
FOR A FULL NORLUN TROUGH EVENT AND EXACTLY WHERE THIS WOULD OCCUR
HOWEVER.

MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS THE POTENTIAL
TO PRODUCE MORE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY.
LINGERING CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH INVERTED TROUGH ACROSS SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND WILL HANG AROUND THROUGH EARLY NOON BEFORE DIMINISHING
LATER IN THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S NORTH AND LOWER TO MID 30S SOUTH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. AFTER A
MOSTLY CLEAR START TO THE NIGHT DOWNWIND OF THE MOUNTAINS VARIABLE
HIGH CLOUDS WILL PUSH IN FROM WEST. WILL SEE ANOTHER VERY CHILLY
NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS NORTH AND LOWER TO MID
TEENS SOUTH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY AND RETURN FLOW WILL
BEGIN TO BRING WARMER AIR BACK INTO THE REGION. BROAD AREA OF
OVER-RUNNING SETTING UP TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL
BRING VARIABLE CLOUDS TO THE REGION. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID
20S TO NEAR 30 NORTH AND IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S SOUTH.

PRETTY MUCH THE SAME FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AS OVER-RUNNING CONTINUES
ALONG WITH VARIABLE CLOUDINESS. AT THIS POINT EXPECT ANY SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY TO REMAIN NORTH AND WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA IN
STRONGER ISENTROPIC LIFT. WILL SEE A MILDER NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S NORTH AND LOWER TO MID 20S SOUTH.

BROAD AREA OF OVER-RUNNING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY
AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE REGION. EXPECT ANOTHER
MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY BUT WITH MILDER TEMPS. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY
RANGE THROUGH THE 40S FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.

COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL BLOW THROUGH
THE REGION DURING THE EARLY HOURS OF MONDAY MORNING. FRONT WILL
BE ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. WHICH SHOULD BE WELL
EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY DAYBREAK MONDAY.

COLDER AIR RETURNS TO THE NORTHEAST ON GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ON MONDAY.
ANY LINGERING CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH DURING THE MORNING
HOURS. EXPECT WINDS TO SLACK OFF SOMEWHAT IN THE AFTERNOON. WILL
REACH HIGH TEMPS DURING THE MORNING BEFORE DROPPING OFF IN THE
AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
BRINGING A SHORT STRETCH OF QUIET WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...AREAS OF LIFR THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT. CIGS AND VSBYS
LIFTING THEREAFTER. SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ON THANKSGIVING.

LONG TERM...VFR FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. MVFR/IFR CEILINGS
DEVELOPING SUNDAY...IMPROVING TO VFR MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS. FLAGS ARE UP FOR GALES FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. EXPECT
WINDS TO PEAK OUT NEAR STORM FORCE FOR A SHORT PERIOD
TONIGHT...BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING.

LONG TERM...SCA`S LIKELY SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MEZ007>009-
     012>014-018>028.
NH...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NHZ001>010-
     013-014.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KGYX 270031
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
731 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF CAPE COD WILL RACE NORTHEAST INTO THE
MARITIMES TONIGHT. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE
REGION ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE
WEST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE
AREA ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND WILL MOVE OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. A WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND
WILL CROSS THE REGION EARLY MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
BEHIND THE FRONT MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
720 PM UPDATE: FORCAST AMOUNTS ON TRACK. CENTER OF SFC LO JUST NW
OF 40N/70W BENCHMARK TRACKING NE. BANDS OF HVY SNOWFALL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE FA WITH SOME RATES OF 1-2 INCHES/HR AT TIMES. REPORTS
OF NUMEROUS POWER OUTAGES ACROSS SRN ME AND NH DUE TO THE HEAVY
WET SNOW WEIGHING DOWN BRANCHES...MORE OUTAGES ARE EXPECTED AS
ANOTHER BURST OF HEAVY PCPN DVLPS AND MOVES N AS THE SFC/MID LVL
LOW DEEPEN AND WRAPAROUND SNOWS DEVELOP AS IT PASSES OFF TO OUR E.
EXPECTING CONDITONS TO BEGIN TO WIND DOWN OVER SRN AREAS OF NH/ME
LATER TONIGHT. FCST SNOW AMTS LOOK GOOD ATTM WITH NO CHANGES TO
THE TOTALS.


LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY NEAR CAPE HATTERAS THIS
AFTERNOON. FURTHER CYCLOGENESIS WILL TAKE PLACE AS THE SYSTEM
HEADS NORTHEAST TOWARDS CAPE COD.

ANY RAIN OR SLEET HAS QUICKLY CHANGED TO SNOW OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS ACROSS THE REGION. WITHIN ABOUT AN HOURS TIME OF THE ONSET
OF PRECIP...VISIBILITIES QUICKLY DROP TO A QUARTER MILE OR LESS IN
HEAVY SNOW. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE AS THE SNOW ENTERS NORTHERN
AREAS.

EXPECT HEAVY SNOW TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. IN ADDITION...THERE IS A CLEAR BANDED SIGNATURE IN THE
12Z MODEL SUITE AND ALSO BANDED PRECIPITATION LINING UP ON CURRENT
RADAR ANIMATIONS ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA. IN
FACT...LIGHTNING IS NOTED IN MANY OBERVATIONS NEAR NYC. THIS
CONVECTION WILL ROLL NORTH...AND THUNDERSNOW IS A DISTINCT
POSSIBILITY THIS EVENING.

CURRENT THINKING...AND THE GRIDDED PACKAGE IS RELATIVELY UNCHANGED
FROM PREVIOUS PACKAGES THIS HOUR. HOWEVER...HAVE ADDED A FEW
ITEMS...

- MORE WIND IS EXPECTED FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...ESPECIALLY NEAR
THE COAST. WET SNOW AND WIND MAY LEAD TO POWER OUTAGES.

- HAVE UPPED SNOWFALL TOTALS BASED ON AFOREMENTIONED
BANDING BY AN INCH OR SO. SO FAR...PLENTY OF WATER IS IN THE
SNOWPACK

- ADDED SOME POCKETS OF SLEET FOR THE EVENING HOURS AS A BRIEF
PERIOD OF 0C AIR ARRIVES WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE H7 LOW TONIGHT.

SLEET MAY KEEP ACCUMULATIONS DOWN ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST.
HIGHEST SNOWFALL TOTALS...LOCALLY NEAR OR IN EXCESS OF A
FOOT...WILL ACCUMULATE IN THE BANDED PRECIPITATION OVER SOUTH-
CENTRAL AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HANGS BACK TO OUR WEST ON THANKSGIVING.
THIS...AND THE PROXIMITY OF AN INVERTED TROUGH HAS THE POTENTIAL
TO SET UP A CLUSTER OF SNOW SHOWERS ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST SOUTH
OF PORTLAND. MODELS ARE GIVING MIXED SIGNALS AS TO THE POTENTIAL
FOR A FULL NORLUN TROUGH EVENT AND EXACTLY WHERE THIS WOULD OCCUR
HOWEVER.

MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS THE POTENTIAL
TO PRODUCE MORE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY.
LINGERING CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH INVERTED TROUGH ACROSS SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND WILL HANG AROUND THROUGH EARLY NOON BEFORE DIMINISHING
LATER IN THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S NORTH AND LOWER TO MID 30S SOUTH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. AFTER A
MOSTLY CLEAR START TO THE NIGHT DOWNWIND OF THE MOUNTAINS VARIABLE
HIGH CLOUDS WILL PUSH IN FROM WEST. WILL SEE ANOTHER VERY CHILLY
NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS NORTH AND LOWER TO MID
TEENS SOUTH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY AND RETURN FLOW WILL
BEGIN TO BRING WARMER AIR BACK INTO THE REGION. BROAD AREA OF
OVER-RUNNING SETTING UP TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL
BRING VARIABLE CLOUDS TO THE REGION. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID
20S TO NEAR 30 NORTH AND IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S SOUTH.

PRETTY MUCH THE SAME FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AS OVER-RUNNING CONTINUES
ALONG WITH VARIABLE CLOUDINESS. AT THIS POINT EXPECT ANY SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY TO REMAIN NORTH AND WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA IN
STRONGER ISENTROPIC LIFT. WILL SEE A MILDER NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S NORTH AND LOWER TO MID 20S SOUTH.

BROAD AREA OF OVER-RUNNING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY
AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE REGION. EXPECT ANOTHER
MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY BUT WITH MILDER TEMPS. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY
RANGE THROUGH THE 40S FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.

COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL BLOW THROUGH
THE REGION DURING THE EARLY HOURS OF MONDAY MORNING. FRONT WILL
BE ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. WHICH SHOULD BE WELL
EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY DAYBREAK MONDAY.

COLDER AIR RETURNS TO THE NORTHEAST ON GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ON MONDAY.
ANY LINGERING CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH DURING THE MORNING
HOURS. EXPECT WINDS TO SLACK OFF SOMEWHAT IN THE AFTERNOON. WILL
REACH HIGH TEMPS DURING THE MORNING BEFORE DROPPING OFF IN THE
AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
BRINGING A SHORT STRETCH OF QUIET WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...AREAS OF LIFR THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT. CIGS AND VSBYS
LIFTING THEREAFTER. SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ON THANKSGIVING.

LONG TERM...VFR FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. MVFR/IFR CEILINGS
DEVELOPING SUNDAY...IMPROVING TO VFR MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS. FLAGS ARE UP FOR GALES FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. EXPECT
WINDS TO PEAK OUT NEAR STORM FORCE FOR A SHORT PERIOD
TONIGHT...BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING.

LONG TERM...SCA`S LIKELY SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MEZ007>009-
     012>014-018>028.
NH...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NHZ001>010-
     013-014.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KCAR 262035
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
335 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS JUST SOUTH OF MAINE TONIGHT AND MOVE INTO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THANKSGIVING DAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AND MOVES EAST OF THE AREA FOR THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A FEW CHANGES FROM THIS MORNING`S FORECAST, BUT NOTHING MAJOR. GOT
RID OF ANY FREEZING RAIN MENTION DOWNEAST AND REPLACED IT WITH
JUST SLEET. SOUNDINGS ALL INDICATE A DEEP ENOUGH COLUMN OF COLD
AIR TO REFREEZE ANY MELTING HYDROMETEORS. SO, FOR DOWNEAST, EXPECT
SLEET MIXED WITH SNOW FROM LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. DON`T EXPECT THE SLEET TO HAVE A BIG IMPACT. MAINLY
IT WILL CUT DOWN ON SNOW TOTALS JUST A BIT TOWARD THE COAST.

OTHER CHANGE FROM THIS MORNING`S FORECAST WAS TO INCREASE SNOW TOTALS
BY ABOUT TWO INCHES FROM BANGOR TO MILLINOCKET TO DANFORTH TO
HOULTON, WITH A CORRIDOR OF TOTALS JUST OVER A FOOT NOW EXPECTED.
IT LOOKS LIKELY THAT BANGOR WILL HIT THE MAGIC 10 INCH SNOW MARK
WITH THIS STORM (WE ARE FORECASTING 12 INCHES) WHICH WOULD MAKE
IT THEIR SNOWIEST NOVEMBER ON RECORD.

LATE THIS AFTERNOON, SNOW IS UNDERWAY AT PLACES LIKE BANGOR, BAR
HARBOR, AND WHITING, AND WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTH. THERE HAS
BEEN LITTLE IF ANY RAIN AT THE ONSET WITH THE LOW SURFACE
DEWPOINTS AND EVAPORATIVE COOLING WORKING ITS MAGIC. THUS, ELIMINATED
RAIN OR RAIN SNOW MIX THIS EVENING FROM THE FORECAST FOR LAND
AREAS.

SNOW WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES ESPECIALLY CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS
THIS EVENING WITH SNOWFALL RATES AROUND 2 INCHES PER HOUR AT TIMES
FROM ABOUT HOULTON SOUTHWEST. A BIT OF A DECREASE IN INTENSITY
AFTER MIDNIGHT, WITH SNOW ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST BY MID MORNING
THURSDAY. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS MAY PERSIST IN THE AFTERNOON, BUT
NOTHING MAJOR.

WINDS WILL BE AN ISSUE WITH THIS STORM, WITH GUSTS 35 TO 45 MPH
ESPECIALLY COASTAL DOWNEAST. THIS COULD LEAD TO SCATTERED POWER
OUTAGES WITH THE WIND COUPLED WITH THE WET SNOW. DON`T THINK THE
WINDS WILL BE TOO MUCH OF AN ISSUE UP NORTH, THOUGH THERE COULD
BE SOME DRIFTING OF THE SNOW WITH ITS SOMEWHAT LOWER DENSITY UP
NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MARITIMES THURSDAY NIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST ALONG WITH A COLDER AIR MASS. A WEAK 500 MB TROUGH WILL CROSS
THE STATE DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. WILL USE A MODEL CONSENSUS FOR
POPS...SKY AND QPF AND BLEND THE GFS AND ECMWF. FOR THE
TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT WILL USE THE SUPER BLEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE STATE SATURDAY THEN MOVE EAST
INTO THE ATLANTIC SATURDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE VICINITY OF JAMES BAY SUNDAY. THIS
WILL RESULT IN A STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS NEW ENGLAND CAUSING
A WARM FRONT TO MOVE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE STATE. OVER RUNNING
PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP IN THE WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. PRECIPITATION WILL START AS SNOW THEN CHANGE TO MIXED THEN
RAIN AS TEMPERATURES WARM ALOFT. A STRONG COLD FRONT IS THEN
EXPECTED TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND CROSS THE
STATE EARLY MONDAY. STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL OCCUR BEHIND THIS
FRONT LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL APPROACH
FROM THE WEST AND CREST OVER THE STATE LATE TUESDAY. WILL USE THE
SUPER BLEND TO POPULATE GRIDS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM...
LIFR DEVELOPING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THIS EVENING IN MODERATE TO
HEAVY SNOW. SLEET MAY MIX IN LATE THIS EVENING AND AFTER MIDNIGHT
BAR HARBOR AND BANGOR. STRONG NORTH WINDS AS WELL. IMPROVING TO
VFR BY MIDDAY THURSDAY.

SHORT AND LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY AND EARLY MONDAY.
VFR CONDITIONS LATE MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM...
GALES TONIGHT WITH THE STRONG NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS AS THE LOW
PASSES JUST TO OUR SOUTH. A FEW GUSTS COULD APPROACH STORM LEVELS,
SO WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS. CONDITIONS IMPROVING DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY.

SHORT AND LONG TERM...FOR WINDS: HAVE USED THE NAM12 UNTIL LATE
SATURDAY THEN TRANSITION TO THE SUPER BLEND WINDS. FOR WAVES: LONG
PERIOD SOUTHERLY WAVE SYSTEM GENERATED IN EASTERN SECTOR OF EAST
COAST STORM ON 27TH WILL PERSIST INTO SATURDAY NIGHT THEN SUBSIDE
EARLY SATURDAY. EXPECT OFF-SHORE LOCAL FETCH AS HIGH PRESSURE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST SUNDAY. EXPECT NEW SOUTHERLY FETCH TO
DEVELOP LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
EXPECT WAVES TO BUILD 6 TO 10 FEET/8-10 SECONDS IN THIS FETCH.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MEZ002-004.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MEZ001-003.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MEZ005-006-
     010-011-015>017-029>032.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...FOISY
SHORT TERM...MIGNONE
LONG TERM...MIGNONE
AVIATION...FOISY/MIGNONE
MARINE...FOISY/MIGNONE




000
FXUS61 KGYX 261917
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
217 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF CAPE COD WILL RACE NORTHEAST INTO THE
MARITIMES TONIGHT. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE
REGION ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE
WEST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE
AREA ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND WILL MOVE OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. A WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND
WILL CROSS THE REGION EARLY MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
BEHIND THE FRONT MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY NEAR CAPE HATTERAS THIS
AFTERNOON. FURTHER CYCLOGENESIS WILL TAKE PLACE AS THE SYSTEM
HEADS NORTHEAST TOWARDS CAPE COD.

ANY RAIN OR SLEET HAS QUICKLY CHANGED TO SNOW OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS ACROSS THE REGION. WITHIN ABOUT AN HOURS TIME OF THE ONSET
OF PRECIP...VISIBILITIES QUICKLY DROP TO A QUARTER MILE OR LESS IN
HEAVY SNOW. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE AS THE SNOW ENTERS NORTHERN
AREAS.

EXPECT HEAVY SNOW TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. IN ADDITION...THERE IS A CLEAR BANDED SIGNATURE IN THE
12Z MODEL SUITE AND ALSO BANDED PRECIPITATION LINING UP ON CURRENT
RADAR ANIMATIONS ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA. IN
FACT...LIGHTNING IS NOTED IN MANY OBERVATIONS NEAR NYC. THIS
CONVECTION WILL ROLL NORTH...AND THUNDERSNOW IS A DISTINCT
POSSIBILITY THIS EVENING.

CURRENT THINKING...AND THE GRIDDED PACKAGE IS RELATIVELY UNCHANGED
FROM PREVIOUS PACKAGES THIS HOUR. HOWEVER...HAVE ADDED A FEW
ITEMS...

- MORE WIND IS EXPECTED FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...ESPECIALLY NEAR
THE COAST. WET SNOW AND WIND MAY LEAD TO POWER OUTAGES.

- HAVE UPPED SNOWFALL TOTALS BASED ON AFOREMENTIONED
BANDING BY AN INCH OR SO. SO FAR...PLENTY OF WATER IS IN THE
SNOWPACK

- ADDED SOME POCKETS OF SLEET FOR THE EVENING HOURS AS A BRIEF
PERIOD OF 0C AIR ARRIVES WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE H7 LOW TONIGHT.

SLEET MAY KEEP ACCUMULATIONS DOWN ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST.
HIGHEST SNOWFALL TOTALS...LOCALLY NEAR OR IN EXCESS OF A
FOOT...WILL ACCUMULATE IN THE BANDED PRECIPITATION OVER SOUTH-
CENTRAL AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HANGS BACK TO OUR WEST ON THANKSGIVING.
THIS...AND THE PROXIMITY OF AN INVERTED TROUGH HAS THE POTENTIAL
TO SET UP A CLUSTER OF SNOW SHOWERS ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST SOUTH
OF PORTLAND. MODELS ARE GIVING MIXED SIGNALS AS TO THE POTENTIAL
FOR A FULL NORLUN TROUGH EVENT AND EXACTLY WHERE THIS WOULD OCCUR
HOWEVER.

MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS THE POTENTIAL
TO PRODUCE MORE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY.
LINGERING CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH INVERTED TROUGH ACROSS SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND WILL HANG AROUND THROUGH EARLY NOON BEFORE DIMINISHING
LATER IN THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S NORTH AND LOWER TO MID 30S SOUTH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. AFTER A
MOSTLY CLEAR START TO THE NIGHT DOWNWIND OF THE MOUNTAINS VARIABLE
HIGH CLOUDS WILL PUSH IN FROM WEST. WILL SEE ANOTHER VERY CHILLY
NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS NORTH AND LOWER TO MID
TEENS SOUTH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY AND RETURN FLOW WILL
BEGIN TO BRING WARMER AIR BACK INTO THE REGION. BROAD AREA OF
OVER-RUNNING SETTING UP TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL
BRING VARIABLE CLOUDS TO THE REGION. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID
20S TO NEAR 30 NORTH AND IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S SOUTH.

PRETTY MUCH THE SAME FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AS OVER-RUNNING CONTINUES
ALONG WITH VARIABLE CLOUDINESS. AT THIS POINT EXPECT ANY SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY TO REMAIN NORTH AND WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA IN
STRONGER ISENTROPIC LIFT. WILL SEE A MILDER NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S NORTH AND LOWER TO MID 20S SOUTH.

BROAD AREA OF OVER-RUNNING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY
AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE REGION. EXPECT ANOTHER
MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY BUT WITH MILDER TEMPS. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY
RANGE THROUGH THE 40S FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.

COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL BLOW THROUGH
THE REGION DURING THE EARLY HOURS OF MONDAY MORNING. FRONT WILL
BE ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. WHICH SHOULD BE WELL
EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY DAYBREAK MONDAY.

COLDER AIR RETURNS TO THE NORTHEAST ON GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ON MONDAY.
ANY LINGERING CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH DURING THE MORNING
HOURS. EXPECT WINDS TO SLACK OFF SOMEWHAT IN THE AFTERNOON. WILL
REACH HIGH TEMPS DURING THE MORNING BEFORE DROPPING OFF IN THE
AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
BRINGING A SHORT STRETCH OF QUIET WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...AREAS OF LIFR THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT. CIGS AND VSBYS
LIFTING THEREAFTER. SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ON THANKSGIVING.

LONG TERM...VFR FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. MVFR/IFR CEILINGS
DEVELOPING SUNDAY...IMPROVING TO VFR MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS. FLAGS ARE UP FOR GALES FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. EXPECT
WINDS TO PEAK OUT NEAR STORM FORCE FOR A SHORT PERIOD
TONIGHT...BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING.

LONG TERM...SCA`S LIKELY SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MEZ007>009-
     012>014-018>028.
NH...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NHZ001>010-
     013-014.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$
JC



000
FXUS61 KGYX 261917
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
217 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF CAPE COD WILL RACE NORTHEAST INTO THE
MARITIMES TONIGHT. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE
REGION ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE
WEST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE
AREA ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND WILL MOVE OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. A WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND
WILL CROSS THE REGION EARLY MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
BEHIND THE FRONT MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY NEAR CAPE HATTERAS THIS
AFTERNOON. FURTHER CYCLOGENESIS WILL TAKE PLACE AS THE SYSTEM
HEADS NORTHEAST TOWARDS CAPE COD.

ANY RAIN OR SLEET HAS QUICKLY CHANGED TO SNOW OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS ACROSS THE REGION. WITHIN ABOUT AN HOURS TIME OF THE ONSET
OF PRECIP...VISIBILITIES QUICKLY DROP TO A QUARTER MILE OR LESS IN
HEAVY SNOW. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE AS THE SNOW ENTERS NORTHERN
AREAS.

EXPECT HEAVY SNOW TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. IN ADDITION...THERE IS A CLEAR BANDED SIGNATURE IN THE
12Z MODEL SUITE AND ALSO BANDED PRECIPITATION LINING UP ON CURRENT
RADAR ANIMATIONS ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA. IN
FACT...LIGHTNING IS NOTED IN MANY OBERVATIONS NEAR NYC. THIS
CONVECTION WILL ROLL NORTH...AND THUNDERSNOW IS A DISTINCT
POSSIBILITY THIS EVENING.

CURRENT THINKING...AND THE GRIDDED PACKAGE IS RELATIVELY UNCHANGED
FROM PREVIOUS PACKAGES THIS HOUR. HOWEVER...HAVE ADDED A FEW
ITEMS...

- MORE WIND IS EXPECTED FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...ESPECIALLY NEAR
THE COAST. WET SNOW AND WIND MAY LEAD TO POWER OUTAGES.

- HAVE UPPED SNOWFALL TOTALS BASED ON AFOREMENTIONED
BANDING BY AN INCH OR SO. SO FAR...PLENTY OF WATER IS IN THE
SNOWPACK

- ADDED SOME POCKETS OF SLEET FOR THE EVENING HOURS AS A BRIEF
PERIOD OF 0C AIR ARRIVES WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE H7 LOW TONIGHT.

SLEET MAY KEEP ACCUMULATIONS DOWN ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST.
HIGHEST SNOWFALL TOTALS...LOCALLY NEAR OR IN EXCESS OF A
FOOT...WILL ACCUMULATE IN THE BANDED PRECIPITATION OVER SOUTH-
CENTRAL AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HANGS BACK TO OUR WEST ON THANKSGIVING.
THIS...AND THE PROXIMITY OF AN INVERTED TROUGH HAS THE POTENTIAL
TO SET UP A CLUSTER OF SNOW SHOWERS ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST SOUTH
OF PORTLAND. MODELS ARE GIVING MIXED SIGNALS AS TO THE POTENTIAL
FOR A FULL NORLUN TROUGH EVENT AND EXACTLY WHERE THIS WOULD OCCUR
HOWEVER.

MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS THE POTENTIAL
TO PRODUCE MORE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY.
LINGERING CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH INVERTED TROUGH ACROSS SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND WILL HANG AROUND THROUGH EARLY NOON BEFORE DIMINISHING
LATER IN THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S NORTH AND LOWER TO MID 30S SOUTH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. AFTER A
MOSTLY CLEAR START TO THE NIGHT DOWNWIND OF THE MOUNTAINS VARIABLE
HIGH CLOUDS WILL PUSH IN FROM WEST. WILL SEE ANOTHER VERY CHILLY
NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS NORTH AND LOWER TO MID
TEENS SOUTH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY AND RETURN FLOW WILL
BEGIN TO BRING WARMER AIR BACK INTO THE REGION. BROAD AREA OF
OVER-RUNNING SETTING UP TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL
BRING VARIABLE CLOUDS TO THE REGION. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID
20S TO NEAR 30 NORTH AND IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S SOUTH.

PRETTY MUCH THE SAME FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AS OVER-RUNNING CONTINUES
ALONG WITH VARIABLE CLOUDINESS. AT THIS POINT EXPECT ANY SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY TO REMAIN NORTH AND WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA IN
STRONGER ISENTROPIC LIFT. WILL SEE A MILDER NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S NORTH AND LOWER TO MID 20S SOUTH.

BROAD AREA OF OVER-RUNNING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY
AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE REGION. EXPECT ANOTHER
MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY BUT WITH MILDER TEMPS. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY
RANGE THROUGH THE 40S FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.

COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL BLOW THROUGH
THE REGION DURING THE EARLY HOURS OF MONDAY MORNING. FRONT WILL
BE ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. WHICH SHOULD BE WELL
EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY DAYBREAK MONDAY.

COLDER AIR RETURNS TO THE NORTHEAST ON GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ON MONDAY.
ANY LINGERING CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH DURING THE MORNING
HOURS. EXPECT WINDS TO SLACK OFF SOMEWHAT IN THE AFTERNOON. WILL
REACH HIGH TEMPS DURING THE MORNING BEFORE DROPPING OFF IN THE
AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
BRINGING A SHORT STRETCH OF QUIET WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...AREAS OF LIFR THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT. CIGS AND VSBYS
LIFTING THEREAFTER. SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ON THANKSGIVING.

LONG TERM...VFR FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. MVFR/IFR CEILINGS
DEVELOPING SUNDAY...IMPROVING TO VFR MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS. FLAGS ARE UP FOR GALES FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. EXPECT
WINDS TO PEAK OUT NEAR STORM FORCE FOR A SHORT PERIOD
TONIGHT...BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING.

LONG TERM...SCA`S LIKELY SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MEZ007>009-
     012>014-018>028.
NH...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NHZ001>010-
     013-014.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$
JC



000
FXUS61 KGYX 261917
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
217 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF CAPE COD WILL RACE NORTHEAST INTO THE
MARITIMES TONIGHT. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE
REGION ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE
WEST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE
AREA ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND WILL MOVE OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. A WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND
WILL CROSS THE REGION EARLY MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
BEHIND THE FRONT MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY NEAR CAPE HATTERAS THIS
AFTERNOON. FURTHER CYCLOGENESIS WILL TAKE PLACE AS THE SYSTEM
HEADS NORTHEAST TOWARDS CAPE COD.

ANY RAIN OR SLEET HAS QUICKLY CHANGED TO SNOW OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS ACROSS THE REGION. WITHIN ABOUT AN HOURS TIME OF THE ONSET
OF PRECIP...VISIBILITIES QUICKLY DROP TO A QUARTER MILE OR LESS IN
HEAVY SNOW. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE AS THE SNOW ENTERS NORTHERN
AREAS.

EXPECT HEAVY SNOW TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. IN ADDITION...THERE IS A CLEAR BANDED SIGNATURE IN THE
12Z MODEL SUITE AND ALSO BANDED PRECIPITATION LINING UP ON CURRENT
RADAR ANIMATIONS ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA. IN
FACT...LIGHTNING IS NOTED IN MANY OBERVATIONS NEAR NYC. THIS
CONVECTION WILL ROLL NORTH...AND THUNDERSNOW IS A DISTINCT
POSSIBILITY THIS EVENING.

CURRENT THINKING...AND THE GRIDDED PACKAGE IS RELATIVELY UNCHANGED
FROM PREVIOUS PACKAGES THIS HOUR. HOWEVER...HAVE ADDED A FEW
ITEMS...

- MORE WIND IS EXPECTED FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...ESPECIALLY NEAR
THE COAST. WET SNOW AND WIND MAY LEAD TO POWER OUTAGES.

- HAVE UPPED SNOWFALL TOTALS BASED ON AFOREMENTIONED
BANDING BY AN INCH OR SO. SO FAR...PLENTY OF WATER IS IN THE
SNOWPACK

- ADDED SOME POCKETS OF SLEET FOR THE EVENING HOURS AS A BRIEF
PERIOD OF 0C AIR ARRIVES WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE H7 LOW TONIGHT.

SLEET MAY KEEP ACCUMULATIONS DOWN ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST.
HIGHEST SNOWFALL TOTALS...LOCALLY NEAR OR IN EXCESS OF A
FOOT...WILL ACCUMULATE IN THE BANDED PRECIPITATION OVER SOUTH-
CENTRAL AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HANGS BACK TO OUR WEST ON THANKSGIVING.
THIS...AND THE PROXIMITY OF AN INVERTED TROUGH HAS THE POTENTIAL
TO SET UP A CLUSTER OF SNOW SHOWERS ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST SOUTH
OF PORTLAND. MODELS ARE GIVING MIXED SIGNALS AS TO THE POTENTIAL
FOR A FULL NORLUN TROUGH EVENT AND EXACTLY WHERE THIS WOULD OCCUR
HOWEVER.

MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS THE POTENTIAL
TO PRODUCE MORE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY.
LINGERING CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH INVERTED TROUGH ACROSS SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND WILL HANG AROUND THROUGH EARLY NOON BEFORE DIMINISHING
LATER IN THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S NORTH AND LOWER TO MID 30S SOUTH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. AFTER A
MOSTLY CLEAR START TO THE NIGHT DOWNWIND OF THE MOUNTAINS VARIABLE
HIGH CLOUDS WILL PUSH IN FROM WEST. WILL SEE ANOTHER VERY CHILLY
NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS NORTH AND LOWER TO MID
TEENS SOUTH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY AND RETURN FLOW WILL
BEGIN TO BRING WARMER AIR BACK INTO THE REGION. BROAD AREA OF
OVER-RUNNING SETTING UP TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL
BRING VARIABLE CLOUDS TO THE REGION. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID
20S TO NEAR 30 NORTH AND IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S SOUTH.

PRETTY MUCH THE SAME FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AS OVER-RUNNING CONTINUES
ALONG WITH VARIABLE CLOUDINESS. AT THIS POINT EXPECT ANY SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY TO REMAIN NORTH AND WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA IN
STRONGER ISENTROPIC LIFT. WILL SEE A MILDER NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S NORTH AND LOWER TO MID 20S SOUTH.

BROAD AREA OF OVER-RUNNING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY
AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE REGION. EXPECT ANOTHER
MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY BUT WITH MILDER TEMPS. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY
RANGE THROUGH THE 40S FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.

COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL BLOW THROUGH
THE REGION DURING THE EARLY HOURS OF MONDAY MORNING. FRONT WILL
BE ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. WHICH SHOULD BE WELL
EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY DAYBREAK MONDAY.

COLDER AIR RETURNS TO THE NORTHEAST ON GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ON MONDAY.
ANY LINGERING CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH DURING THE MORNING
HOURS. EXPECT WINDS TO SLACK OFF SOMEWHAT IN THE AFTERNOON. WILL
REACH HIGH TEMPS DURING THE MORNING BEFORE DROPPING OFF IN THE
AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
BRINGING A SHORT STRETCH OF QUIET WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...AREAS OF LIFR THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT. CIGS AND VSBYS
LIFTING THEREAFTER. SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ON THANKSGIVING.

LONG TERM...VFR FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. MVFR/IFR CEILINGS
DEVELOPING SUNDAY...IMPROVING TO VFR MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS. FLAGS ARE UP FOR GALES FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. EXPECT
WINDS TO PEAK OUT NEAR STORM FORCE FOR A SHORT PERIOD
TONIGHT...BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING.

LONG TERM...SCA`S LIKELY SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MEZ007>009-
     012>014-018>028.
NH...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NHZ001>010-
     013-014.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$
JC



000
FXUS61 KGYX 261917
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
217 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF CAPE COD WILL RACE NORTHEAST INTO THE
MARITIMES TONIGHT. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE
REGION ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE
WEST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE
AREA ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND WILL MOVE OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. A WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND
WILL CROSS THE REGION EARLY MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
BEHIND THE FRONT MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY NEAR CAPE HATTERAS THIS
AFTERNOON. FURTHER CYCLOGENESIS WILL TAKE PLACE AS THE SYSTEM
HEADS NORTHEAST TOWARDS CAPE COD.

ANY RAIN OR SLEET HAS QUICKLY CHANGED TO SNOW OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS ACROSS THE REGION. WITHIN ABOUT AN HOURS TIME OF THE ONSET
OF PRECIP...VISIBILITIES QUICKLY DROP TO A QUARTER MILE OR LESS IN
HEAVY SNOW. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE AS THE SNOW ENTERS NORTHERN
AREAS.

EXPECT HEAVY SNOW TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. IN ADDITION...THERE IS A CLEAR BANDED SIGNATURE IN THE
12Z MODEL SUITE AND ALSO BANDED PRECIPITATION LINING UP ON CURRENT
RADAR ANIMATIONS ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA. IN
FACT...LIGHTNING IS NOTED IN MANY OBERVATIONS NEAR NYC. THIS
CONVECTION WILL ROLL NORTH...AND THUNDERSNOW IS A DISTINCT
POSSIBILITY THIS EVENING.

CURRENT THINKING...AND THE GRIDDED PACKAGE IS RELATIVELY UNCHANGED
FROM PREVIOUS PACKAGES THIS HOUR. HOWEVER...HAVE ADDED A FEW
ITEMS...

- MORE WIND IS EXPECTED FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...ESPECIALLY NEAR
THE COAST. WET SNOW AND WIND MAY LEAD TO POWER OUTAGES.

- HAVE UPPED SNOWFALL TOTALS BASED ON AFOREMENTIONED
BANDING BY AN INCH OR SO. SO FAR...PLENTY OF WATER IS IN THE
SNOWPACK

- ADDED SOME POCKETS OF SLEET FOR THE EVENING HOURS AS A BRIEF
PERIOD OF 0C AIR ARRIVES WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE H7 LOW TONIGHT.

SLEET MAY KEEP ACCUMULATIONS DOWN ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST.
HIGHEST SNOWFALL TOTALS...LOCALLY NEAR OR IN EXCESS OF A
FOOT...WILL ACCUMULATE IN THE BANDED PRECIPITATION OVER SOUTH-
CENTRAL AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HANGS BACK TO OUR WEST ON THANKSGIVING.
THIS...AND THE PROXIMITY OF AN INVERTED TROUGH HAS THE POTENTIAL
TO SET UP A CLUSTER OF SNOW SHOWERS ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST SOUTH
OF PORTLAND. MODELS ARE GIVING MIXED SIGNALS AS TO THE POTENTIAL
FOR A FULL NORLUN TROUGH EVENT AND EXACTLY WHERE THIS WOULD OCCUR
HOWEVER.

MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS THE POTENTIAL
TO PRODUCE MORE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY.
LINGERING CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH INVERTED TROUGH ACROSS SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND WILL HANG AROUND THROUGH EARLY NOON BEFORE DIMINISHING
LATER IN THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S NORTH AND LOWER TO MID 30S SOUTH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. AFTER A
MOSTLY CLEAR START TO THE NIGHT DOWNWIND OF THE MOUNTAINS VARIABLE
HIGH CLOUDS WILL PUSH IN FROM WEST. WILL SEE ANOTHER VERY CHILLY
NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS NORTH AND LOWER TO MID
TEENS SOUTH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY AND RETURN FLOW WILL
BEGIN TO BRING WARMER AIR BACK INTO THE REGION. BROAD AREA OF
OVER-RUNNING SETTING UP TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL
BRING VARIABLE CLOUDS TO THE REGION. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID
20S TO NEAR 30 NORTH AND IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S SOUTH.

PRETTY MUCH THE SAME FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AS OVER-RUNNING CONTINUES
ALONG WITH VARIABLE CLOUDINESS. AT THIS POINT EXPECT ANY SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY TO REMAIN NORTH AND WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA IN
STRONGER ISENTROPIC LIFT. WILL SEE A MILDER NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S NORTH AND LOWER TO MID 20S SOUTH.

BROAD AREA OF OVER-RUNNING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY
AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE REGION. EXPECT ANOTHER
MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY BUT WITH MILDER TEMPS. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY
RANGE THROUGH THE 40S FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.

COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL BLOW THROUGH
THE REGION DURING THE EARLY HOURS OF MONDAY MORNING. FRONT WILL
BE ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. WHICH SHOULD BE WELL
EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY DAYBREAK MONDAY.

COLDER AIR RETURNS TO THE NORTHEAST ON GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ON MONDAY.
ANY LINGERING CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH DURING THE MORNING
HOURS. EXPECT WINDS TO SLACK OFF SOMEWHAT IN THE AFTERNOON. WILL
REACH HIGH TEMPS DURING THE MORNING BEFORE DROPPING OFF IN THE
AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
BRINGING A SHORT STRETCH OF QUIET WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...AREAS OF LIFR THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT. CIGS AND VSBYS
LIFTING THEREAFTER. SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ON THANKSGIVING.

LONG TERM...VFR FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. MVFR/IFR CEILINGS
DEVELOPING SUNDAY...IMPROVING TO VFR MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS. FLAGS ARE UP FOR GALES FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. EXPECT
WINDS TO PEAK OUT NEAR STORM FORCE FOR A SHORT PERIOD
TONIGHT...BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING.

LONG TERM...SCA`S LIKELY SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MEZ007>009-
     012>014-018>028.
NH...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NHZ001>010-
     013-014.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$
JC



000
FXUS61 KCAR 261733
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1233 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE IN THE EASTERN CAROLINAS THIS MORNING WILL PASS NEAR
CAPE COD TONIGHT...AND MOVE INTO NOVA SCOTIA ON THANKSGIVING DAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE EASTERN SEABOARD FRIDAY...AND
MOVE EAST OF THE AREA SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
NOON UPDATE...
NO CHANGES NEEDED. SNOW WILL DEVELOP FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

6AM UPDATE...
ADDED HEAVY SNOW THIS EVENING FOR THE ZONES EXPECTED TO BE MOST
IMPACTED...GENERALLY FROM SOUTHERN PISCATAQUIS AND PENOBSCOT
COUNTIES TOWARDS NORTHERN WASHINGTON AND SOUTHERN AROOSTOOK. THIS
BELT SHOULD SEE 10 TO 12 INCHES...BEING FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO AVOID
SLEET AND RECEIVE BETTER SNOW RATIOS...BUT NOT TOO FAR NORTH TO
MISS THE BEST QPF. ALSO REFINED THE ICE FORECAST FOR SOUTHERN
HANCOCK AND WASHINGTON WHERE A WORST CASE OF 1/4 INCH OF ICE IS
POSSIBLE...BUT EFFECTS SHOULD BE MITIGATED BY AT LEAST SEVERAL
INCHES OF SNOW FALLING FIRST AS WELL AS TEMPERATURES AROUND 32F.
MORE WORRISOME IS THE WIND ARRIVING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW.
HAVE INCREASED GUSTS IN THIS UPDATE. GUSTS TO 55 MPH ARE POSSIBLE
IN COASTAL HANCOCK AND WASHINGTON AFTER MIDNIGHT. EVEN IN
BANGOR...GUSTS ABOVE 45 MPH SHOULD BE EASILY ATTAINABLE. WITH
A HEAVY WET SNOW AND THESE WINDS...SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES ARE
LIKELY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY THIS MORNING AND
SWEEP SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. THE FRONT
MAY SET OFF A FEW FLURRIES IN ALONG THE NORTHERN BORDER.
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT RISE TOO MUCH FROM READINGS EARLY THIS
MORNING AS COLDER AIR SWEEPS SOUTHWARD AND CLOUDS THICKEN AHEAD OF
THE STORM. ALTHOUGH SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE NOT FALLEN MUCH
OVERNIGHT...LOWER DEWPOINTS HAVE BEEN STEADILY ADVECTING SOUTHWARD
ALONG WITH COLDER AIR ALOFT. AS A RESULT...EVAPORATIVE COOLING
WITH PRECIPITATION THIS AFTERNOON AND THE CONTINUED DYNAMICAL
COOLING WILL QUICKLY ERASE THE WARM BOUNDARY LAYER AND ALLOW FOR
SNOW THIS AFTERNOON. THE HEAVY SNOW PERIOD IS STILL PROGGED TO BE
LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH SNOW RATES
OVER AN INCH AN HOUR AT TIMES AND WINDS GUSTING TOWARDS 35 MPH
LATER TONIGHT AS WINDS START TURNING NW. THIS WILL CAUSE DRIFTING
ISSUES...ESPECIALLY FURTHER NORTH WHERE THE SNOW WILL NOT BE AS
HEAVY.

THE BIG CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS CYCLE RESULTED IN A SLIGHT
NORTHERN TURN TO THE STORM TRACK TO NORTH OF YARMOUTH IN NOVA
SCOTIA. THIS HAD TWO EFFECTS. FIRST...THE WINTER STORM WARNING WAS
EXTENDED NORTHWARD TO INCLUDE ALL OF PISCATAQUIS COUNTY AS WELL AS
NORTHEASTERN AROOSTOOK WHERE BETTER SNOW RATIOS ARE ANTICIPATED.
SECOND...THE MORE NORTHERN TRACK MEANS MORE WARM AIR ALONG IN
COASTAL HANCOCK AND WASHINGTON COUNTIES LATER THIS EVENING. IN
THESE LOCATIONS...EXPECT SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE TRADED FOR
SLEET ACCUMULATION IN A RATHER NARROW SWATH FROM ELLSWORTH TO
CALAIS. ALONG THIS CORRIDOR...A HALF INCH OF SLEET ACCUMULATION IS
POSSIBLE AND MAYBE MORE TOWARDS CALAIS. SOME FREEZING RAIN MAY MIX
IN AT TIMES TOO IN THIS REGION BUT THE WARM LAYER LOOKS TO BE MORE
A SLEET PRODUCER THAN FREEZING RAIN. NONETHELESS...WIND GUSTS OF
NEARLY 50 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT WILL MAKE POWER OUTAGES A CONCERN FOR
BANGOR AND DOWN EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE SNOW STORM WILL BE WINDING DOWN QUICKLY FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS
THE CWA THU MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE OVER NOVA SCOTIA AT 12Z THU
LIFTS UP TO NEWFOUNDLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD TOWARD THE EASTERN SEABOARD FRIDAY. THE WIND WILL DIMINISH
PRETTY QUICKLY BY MID AFTERNOON THU AND WILL BECOME LIGHT THU
EVENING SO NO SIGNIFICANT ISSUES WITH BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW
EXPECTED AFTER THE SNOW COMES TO AN END. MAINLY DRY AND COLD
WEATHER EXPECTED THU NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE
TEENS AND HIGHS FRIDAY FROM THE MID 20S ACROSS THE CROWN OF MAINE
TO NEAR 30 ALONG THE COAST. A MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CROSS
THE AREA FRI AND IT COULD TOUCH OFF A FEW SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE
WESTERN MOUNTAINS AND ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE FROM THE KATAHDIN
REGION NORTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DRY AND COLD FRI NIGHT AND SAT AS HIGH PRESSURE TO SLOWLY SLIDE
EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC SAT. A CLIPPER FROM THE MIDWEST IS
EXPECTED TO LIFT TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT ALTHOUGH
THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS AND FROM
RUN TO RUN OF THE VARIOUS MODELS. THERE COULD BE A BIT OF
OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF THE LOW ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE
LATE SAT NIGHT AND SUN. WHAT LOOKS MORE CERTAIN IS THAT THIS LOW
WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A STRONG COLD FRONT MON WITH A SHOT OF VERY
COLD AIR FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE REGION. THE AIR MASS BY TUE MORNING LOOKS TO BE THE COLDEST SO
FAR THIS WINTER. AS THE HIGH WILL STILL BE WELL WEST OF THE AREA
MON NIGHT THERE WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO BE SOME WIND AND
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT GET AS COLD AS THE AIR MASS WOULD SUPPORT.
ALTHOUGH THE AIR MASS ALOFT BEGINS TO MODERATE TUE NIGHT THERE IS
A BETTER CHANCE THAT THIS WILL BE THE COLDEST NIGHT AS THE HIGH
SETTLES OVER THE REGION. MODERATION OF THE AIR MASS IS THEN
EXPECTED WED AS THE HIGH RETREATS TO THE EAST AND A MILDER RETURN
FLOW SETS UP.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR BREAKS OUT FOR BGR AND BHB LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND SPREADS STEADILY NORTH TO FVE IN THE EVENING. 1/4SM VIS IS
EXPECTED FOR BGR AND BHB LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LIFR
CONDITIONS WILL AFFECT ALL SITES TONIGHT. FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET
ARE EXPECTED LATER THIS EVENING AT BHB. WINDS AT FL020 WILL BE 40
TO 50 KTS THIS EVENING AT BHB AND BGR WITH LLWS A THREAT AS WELL.

SHORT TERM: IFR IN SNOW EARLY THU WILL GIVE WAY TO VFR BY THU
AFTERNOON AS THE SNOW ENDS AND CLEARING FOLLOWS. VFR EXPECTED THU
NIGHT THROUGH SAT. POTENTIAL FOR VFR OR IFR SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY SO
AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: EXTENDED THE GALE FROM 7PM TO 7AM. VERY STRONG
NORTHEAST WINDS APPROACHING STORM FORCE WILL AFFECT THE WATERS
DURING THE EVENING. HAVE COVERED WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 50 KTS...BUT
AN UPGRADE TO STORM WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED. WINDS WILL DIMINISH
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE LOW PASSES...BUT INCREASE FROM THE NW LATER
IN THE NIGHT.

SHORT TERM: GALES EARLY THURSDAY WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE TRANSITIONED
TO A SCA BY MIDDAY THU AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY FROM THE WATERS. THE
WIND SHOULD DIMINISH AND THE SEAS SUBSIDE TO BELOW SCA LEVELS THU
NIGHT. ANOTHER SCA WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED BY LATE SAT AHEAD OF THE
NEXT SYSTEM THAT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR MEZ002-004.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR MEZ001-003.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MEZ005-006-
     010-011-015>017-029>032.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...FOISY/MCW
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM...CB
AVIATION...FOISY/MCW/CB
MARINE...FOISY/MCW/CB



000
FXUS61 KCAR 261733
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1233 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE IN THE EASTERN CAROLINAS THIS MORNING WILL PASS NEAR
CAPE COD TONIGHT...AND MOVE INTO NOVA SCOTIA ON THANKSGIVING DAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE EASTERN SEABOARD FRIDAY...AND
MOVE EAST OF THE AREA SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
NOON UPDATE...
NO CHANGES NEEDED. SNOW WILL DEVELOP FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

6AM UPDATE...
ADDED HEAVY SNOW THIS EVENING FOR THE ZONES EXPECTED TO BE MOST
IMPACTED...GENERALLY FROM SOUTHERN PISCATAQUIS AND PENOBSCOT
COUNTIES TOWARDS NORTHERN WASHINGTON AND SOUTHERN AROOSTOOK. THIS
BELT SHOULD SEE 10 TO 12 INCHES...BEING FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO AVOID
SLEET AND RECEIVE BETTER SNOW RATIOS...BUT NOT TOO FAR NORTH TO
MISS THE BEST QPF. ALSO REFINED THE ICE FORECAST FOR SOUTHERN
HANCOCK AND WASHINGTON WHERE A WORST CASE OF 1/4 INCH OF ICE IS
POSSIBLE...BUT EFFECTS SHOULD BE MITIGATED BY AT LEAST SEVERAL
INCHES OF SNOW FALLING FIRST AS WELL AS TEMPERATURES AROUND 32F.
MORE WORRISOME IS THE WIND ARRIVING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW.
HAVE INCREASED GUSTS IN THIS UPDATE. GUSTS TO 55 MPH ARE POSSIBLE
IN COASTAL HANCOCK AND WASHINGTON AFTER MIDNIGHT. EVEN IN
BANGOR...GUSTS ABOVE 45 MPH SHOULD BE EASILY ATTAINABLE. WITH
A HEAVY WET SNOW AND THESE WINDS...SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES ARE
LIKELY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY THIS MORNING AND
SWEEP SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. THE FRONT
MAY SET OFF A FEW FLURRIES IN ALONG THE NORTHERN BORDER.
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT RISE TOO MUCH FROM READINGS EARLY THIS
MORNING AS COLDER AIR SWEEPS SOUTHWARD AND CLOUDS THICKEN AHEAD OF
THE STORM. ALTHOUGH SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE NOT FALLEN MUCH
OVERNIGHT...LOWER DEWPOINTS HAVE BEEN STEADILY ADVECTING SOUTHWARD
ALONG WITH COLDER AIR ALOFT. AS A RESULT...EVAPORATIVE COOLING
WITH PRECIPITATION THIS AFTERNOON AND THE CONTINUED DYNAMICAL
COOLING WILL QUICKLY ERASE THE WARM BOUNDARY LAYER AND ALLOW FOR
SNOW THIS AFTERNOON. THE HEAVY SNOW PERIOD IS STILL PROGGED TO BE
LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH SNOW RATES
OVER AN INCH AN HOUR AT TIMES AND WINDS GUSTING TOWARDS 35 MPH
LATER TONIGHT AS WINDS START TURNING NW. THIS WILL CAUSE DRIFTING
ISSUES...ESPECIALLY FURTHER NORTH WHERE THE SNOW WILL NOT BE AS
HEAVY.

THE BIG CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS CYCLE RESULTED IN A SLIGHT
NORTHERN TURN TO THE STORM TRACK TO NORTH OF YARMOUTH IN NOVA
SCOTIA. THIS HAD TWO EFFECTS. FIRST...THE WINTER STORM WARNING WAS
EXTENDED NORTHWARD TO INCLUDE ALL OF PISCATAQUIS COUNTY AS WELL AS
NORTHEASTERN AROOSTOOK WHERE BETTER SNOW RATIOS ARE ANTICIPATED.
SECOND...THE MORE NORTHERN TRACK MEANS MORE WARM AIR ALONG IN
COASTAL HANCOCK AND WASHINGTON COUNTIES LATER THIS EVENING. IN
THESE LOCATIONS...EXPECT SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE TRADED FOR
SLEET ACCUMULATION IN A RATHER NARROW SWATH FROM ELLSWORTH TO
CALAIS. ALONG THIS CORRIDOR...A HALF INCH OF SLEET ACCUMULATION IS
POSSIBLE AND MAYBE MORE TOWARDS CALAIS. SOME FREEZING RAIN MAY MIX
IN AT TIMES TOO IN THIS REGION BUT THE WARM LAYER LOOKS TO BE MORE
A SLEET PRODUCER THAN FREEZING RAIN. NONETHELESS...WIND GUSTS OF
NEARLY 50 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT WILL MAKE POWER OUTAGES A CONCERN FOR
BANGOR AND DOWN EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE SNOW STORM WILL BE WINDING DOWN QUICKLY FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS
THE CWA THU MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE OVER NOVA SCOTIA AT 12Z THU
LIFTS UP TO NEWFOUNDLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD TOWARD THE EASTERN SEABOARD FRIDAY. THE WIND WILL DIMINISH
PRETTY QUICKLY BY MID AFTERNOON THU AND WILL BECOME LIGHT THU
EVENING SO NO SIGNIFICANT ISSUES WITH BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW
EXPECTED AFTER THE SNOW COMES TO AN END. MAINLY DRY AND COLD
WEATHER EXPECTED THU NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE
TEENS AND HIGHS FRIDAY FROM THE MID 20S ACROSS THE CROWN OF MAINE
TO NEAR 30 ALONG THE COAST. A MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CROSS
THE AREA FRI AND IT COULD TOUCH OFF A FEW SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE
WESTERN MOUNTAINS AND ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE FROM THE KATAHDIN
REGION NORTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DRY AND COLD FRI NIGHT AND SAT AS HIGH PRESSURE TO SLOWLY SLIDE
EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC SAT. A CLIPPER FROM THE MIDWEST IS
EXPECTED TO LIFT TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT ALTHOUGH
THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS AND FROM
RUN TO RUN OF THE VARIOUS MODELS. THERE COULD BE A BIT OF
OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF THE LOW ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE
LATE SAT NIGHT AND SUN. WHAT LOOKS MORE CERTAIN IS THAT THIS LOW
WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A STRONG COLD FRONT MON WITH A SHOT OF VERY
COLD AIR FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE REGION. THE AIR MASS BY TUE MORNING LOOKS TO BE THE COLDEST SO
FAR THIS WINTER. AS THE HIGH WILL STILL BE WELL WEST OF THE AREA
MON NIGHT THERE WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO BE SOME WIND AND
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT GET AS COLD AS THE AIR MASS WOULD SUPPORT.
ALTHOUGH THE AIR MASS ALOFT BEGINS TO MODERATE TUE NIGHT THERE IS
A BETTER CHANCE THAT THIS WILL BE THE COLDEST NIGHT AS THE HIGH
SETTLES OVER THE REGION. MODERATION OF THE AIR MASS IS THEN
EXPECTED WED AS THE HIGH RETREATS TO THE EAST AND A MILDER RETURN
FLOW SETS UP.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR BREAKS OUT FOR BGR AND BHB LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND SPREADS STEADILY NORTH TO FVE IN THE EVENING. 1/4SM VIS IS
EXPECTED FOR BGR AND BHB LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LIFR
CONDITIONS WILL AFFECT ALL SITES TONIGHT. FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET
ARE EXPECTED LATER THIS EVENING AT BHB. WINDS AT FL020 WILL BE 40
TO 50 KTS THIS EVENING AT BHB AND BGR WITH LLWS A THREAT AS WELL.

SHORT TERM: IFR IN SNOW EARLY THU WILL GIVE WAY TO VFR BY THU
AFTERNOON AS THE SNOW ENDS AND CLEARING FOLLOWS. VFR EXPECTED THU
NIGHT THROUGH SAT. POTENTIAL FOR VFR OR IFR SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY SO
AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: EXTENDED THE GALE FROM 7PM TO 7AM. VERY STRONG
NORTHEAST WINDS APPROACHING STORM FORCE WILL AFFECT THE WATERS
DURING THE EVENING. HAVE COVERED WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 50 KTS...BUT
AN UPGRADE TO STORM WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED. WINDS WILL DIMINISH
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE LOW PASSES...BUT INCREASE FROM THE NW LATER
IN THE NIGHT.

SHORT TERM: GALES EARLY THURSDAY WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE TRANSITIONED
TO A SCA BY MIDDAY THU AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY FROM THE WATERS. THE
WIND SHOULD DIMINISH AND THE SEAS SUBSIDE TO BELOW SCA LEVELS THU
NIGHT. ANOTHER SCA WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED BY LATE SAT AHEAD OF THE
NEXT SYSTEM THAT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR MEZ002-004.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR MEZ001-003.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MEZ005-006-
     010-011-015>017-029>032.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...FOISY/MCW
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM...CB
AVIATION...FOISY/MCW/CB
MARINE...FOISY/MCW/CB




000
FXUS61 KGYX 261658
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1158 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TODAY AND
TRACK NORTHEAST TO JUST SOUTH OF CAPE COD BY WEDNESDAY
EVENING....BRINGING A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. THE COASTAL LOW WILL CONTINUE NORTHEAST INTO THE
MARITIMES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM
THE WEST ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE FLOW SHIFTS TO THE SOUTHWEST
SUNDAY WITH A WARM UP EXPECTED. ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1158 AM UPDATE...
ANY RAIN OVER SOUTHERN AREAS CONTINUES TO QUICKLY CHANGE TO
SLEET...THEN SNOW. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE AS DEW POINTS
REMAIN IN THE MID 20S TO NEAR 30. -SN SWITCHES TO +SN OVER A SHORT
PERIOD OF TIME. TRAVEL SHOULD BE COMPLETED SOON.

HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS. CYCLOGENESIS
ON TRACK AND THE WESTWARD SHIFT OF THE MODELS HAS STABILIZED. DRY
SLOT MAY REACH THE COASTLINE LATER TONIGHT...CAUSING THE SNOW TO
END AS A PERIOD OF SLEET OR FREEZING DRIZZLE.

7AM UPDATE... JUST SOME TWEAKS TO THE TEMPERATURES... STILL
RUNNING ON THE WARM SIDE IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS, HOWEVER DEW
POINTS CONTINUE TO DROP AND MORNING KGYX SOUNDING IN PROGRESS
SHOWS VERY DRY AIR ALOFT. HAVE LEFT SNOW AMOUNTS AS IS. LOW IS
DEEPENING WITH HEIGHT FALLS OFF CHESAPEAKE BAY.

AS WE CLOSE IN ON THE STORM MORE AND MORE MESOSCALE DETAILS HAVE
EMERGED, AND HAVE ENHANCED OUR EXISTING FORECAST WITH THESE
DETAILS... HOWEVER THE BROAD PICTURE HAS NOT CHANGED.

 ** A MAJOR WINTER STORM WILL IMPACT NH AND ME THROUGH WEDNESDAY
  AFTERNOON SIGNIFICANTLY HAMPERING TRAVEL**

AT 09Z THE LOW WAS CENTERED JUST OFF THE CAROLINA COAST AND WILL
TRACK RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. TRACK FORECASTS
HAVE COME INTO GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE LOW TO PASS JUST NORTHWEST
OF THE 70W/40N BENCHMARK AROUND 03Z THURSDAY.

THERE ARE TWO MAIN AREAS OF CHANGE FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. THE
FIRST IS THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE HEAVY SNOW. QPF AMOUNTS HAVE
INCREASED IN PRETTY MUCH ALL FORMS OF GUIDANCE... COMBINED WITH
COLD TEMPS AND IDEAL SNOW GROWTH THIS HAS RESULTED IN AN INCREASE
OF SNOWFALL FOR THE NORTHERN MOST ZONES... AND HAVE UPGRADED TO A
WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE WHOLE CWA. SOME POCKETS OF THE UPPER
CT VALLEY MAY REMAIN MARGINAL IN TERMS OF SNOW TOTALS... BUT FEEL
THE MAJORITY OF THE ZONE WILL MEET CRITERIA.

THE OTHER CHANGE... AND OF GREATER CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
BANDING... RESULTING IN VERY HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES. VERY STRONG
BANDING SIGNATURE WITH 700MB FRONTOGENESIS CONCENTRATED IN A LINE
EXTENDING FROM KEENE NH PARALLEL TO THE GULF OF MAINE UP THROUGH
TO CALAIS ME. THIS PAIRS UP NICELY WITH A LAYER OF INSTABILITY
EXTENDING FROM 700 TO 500MB... SETTING US UP FOR A CLASSIC
NORTHWEST SECTOR BAND AS THE LOW PASSES FROM SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND
NORTHEASTWARDS TOWARDS THE BENCHMARK FROM 00Z-06Z TOMORROW. AT
THIS POINT THIS SAME SIGNATURE IS EVIDENT IN ALL THE MAJOR
GUIDANCE GFS/NAM/ECMWF/CMC ... GIVING FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE OF
THE FORMATION OF THE BAND. THE NATURE OF THE BEAST IS THAT THE
EXACT LOCATION MAY SHIFT SLIGHTLY NORTH OR SOUTH.. GIVING VERY
DIFFERENT SNOWFALL TOTALS WITHIN A FEW MILES BUT FEEL THERE WILL
BE PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL PLANE IMPACTED BY THIS FEATURE BETWEEN
00Z AND 06Z. SNOW TOTALS HAVE INCREASED SLIGHTLY THROUGH THIS AREA
TO REFLECT THIS BANDING POTENTIAL.

**THIS BANDING WILL RESULT IN SNOWFALL RATES OF 1-3"/HR THROUGH
 THE MOST INTENSE PARTS OF THE BAND.** IN NEW HAMPSHIRE... THE
 CORRIDOR FROM CONCORD TO MANCHESTER WILL SEE HEAVY SNOW STARTING
 AROUND 21Z AS THE BAND PUSHES NORTHWARDS. BETWEEN 00Z AND 03Z IT
 SETS UP NICELY PARALLEL TO THE COAST THROUGH THE ENTIRE COASTAL
 PLANE... IMPACTING ALL NORTH SOUTH TRAVEL ROUTES IN THE CWA.
 OVERALL THE QUICK MOVING NATURE OF THE SYSTEM WILL HELP AS MOST
 AREAS WILL SEE THE MOST INTENSE SNOWFALL RATES LIMITED TO AROUND
 3HRS. AN EXCEPTION TO THIS IS THE LEWISTON TO AUGUSTA REGION...
 WHERE THE BAND MAY PIVOT AS THE LOW TURNS MORE NORTHWARD KEEPING THE
 I-95 CORRIDOR OF SOUTHWEST MAINE UNDER THE HEAVY SNOW A BIT
 LONGER.

ONCE AGAIN...THE CONDITIONS WILL BE QUICKLY DETERIORATING AND
EXPECTED TO BE THE WORST WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING...COINCIDING
WITH THE BUSIEST TRAVEL TIMES. TRAVELERS SHOULD BE AT THEIR
DESTINATIONS BY WED AFTERNOON IF AT ALL POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
THE STORM WILL RAPIDLY EXIT THE AREA ON THANKSGIVING DAY.. WITH
SNOW CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST IN THE MORNING AND MINIMAL
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION AFTER DAY BREAK.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR FREEZING AND DROP OFF THROUGH THE
DAY AS COLD AIR ALOFT PUSHES INTO THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HEMISPHERIC 500MB PATTERN REMAINS ON THE UNSTABLE SIDE AS SMALL
SCALE BLOCKS SET UP AND BREAK DOWN EVERY COUPLE OF DAYS...ALTHOUGH
OVERALL TREND IS STILL TOWARD A +PNA PATTERN...BUT WITHOUT
SIGNIFICANT AMPLIFICATION...WHICH MEANS MORE IN THE WAY OF A
TROUGH ACROSS ACROSS CENTRAL AND ERN NOAM. SO...ALTHOUGH IT WILL
BE SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED WITH FLUCTUATING TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD...NO
SIGNIFICANT SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED.

IT STARTS OUT COLD THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS SFC RIDGE BUILDS IN
FROM THE SW. MODELS SUGGESTING POSSIBLE INVERTED TROUGH THU
NIGHT...ALTHOUGH STRENGTH AND LOCATION VARY FROM MODEL TO MODEL.
WILL HAVE TO WATCH FUTURE MODELS RUNS TO SEE IF THIS SYSTEM WILL
SPREAD ANY LIGHT SNOW INTO COASTAL SECTIONS. THE HIGHS SHOULD
BUILD IN FOR FRI AND FRI NIGHT...WITH MAXES FRI AND SAT GENERALLY
IN THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30 IN THE N AND 30S ELSEWHERE.

SW FLOW SETS UP FOR SAT NIGHT INTO MON WITH BROAD WAA PATTERN
ALOFT...WHICH WILL WARM THINGS UP A BIT...BUT SHOULD ALSO PRODUCE
A FAIR AMT OF MID-HIGH CLOUDS...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S AND
40S BOTH SUN AND MON. ANOTHER WEAK WAVE AT 500MB TRACKS THRU LATE
MONDAY AND DRAGS A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION...WITH A THREAT
FOR SHRA/SHSN. IT COOL DOWN AGAIN FOR TUE...BUT WARMER AIR
RETURNS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THRU EARLY WED. CONDITIONS
RAPIDLY DETERIORATE FROM S TO N THRU WED AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS
WILL QUICKLY DROP TO IFR AND LOWER BY EVENING. COULD SEE SOME
BRIEF MIXING WITH RA AT KPSM AND KPWM...BEFORE A TRANSITION TO ALL
SNWFL. WINDS ALONG THE COAST WILL BE GUSTY FROM THE NNE...AROUND
25-30 KTS. CONDITIONS QUICKLY IMPROVE TO MVFR OR VFR THU AS LOW
PRES PULLS AWAY.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR THU NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. COASTAL
TERMINALS...ESPECIALLY KPWM/KPSM...HAVE A SLIGHT CHC FOR SOME IFR
IN LIGHT SNOW THU NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...GALE WARNINGS IN EFFECT STARTING WED AFTERNOON.
COASTAL STORM WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE GULF OF ME...WITH A
BRIEF PERIOD OF GALE FORCE GUSTS. SCA WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED
FOLLOWING THE LOW PRES.

LONG TERM...GENERALLY QUIET WITH SUB-SCA CONDS ON THE WATERS THU
NIGHT INTO SAT. SCA MAY BE NEEDED FOR INCREASING SW FLOW ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MEZ012>014-
     018>028.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MEZ007>009.
NH...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NHZ002>010-
     013-014.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NHZ001.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KGYX 261658
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1158 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TODAY AND
TRACK NORTHEAST TO JUST SOUTH OF CAPE COD BY WEDNESDAY
EVENING....BRINGING A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. THE COASTAL LOW WILL CONTINUE NORTHEAST INTO THE
MARITIMES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM
THE WEST ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE FLOW SHIFTS TO THE SOUTHWEST
SUNDAY WITH A WARM UP EXPECTED. ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1158 AM UPDATE...
ANY RAIN OVER SOUTHERN AREAS CONTINUES TO QUICKLY CHANGE TO
SLEET...THEN SNOW. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE AS DEW POINTS
REMAIN IN THE MID 20S TO NEAR 30. -SN SWITCHES TO +SN OVER A SHORT
PERIOD OF TIME. TRAVEL SHOULD BE COMPLETED SOON.

HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS. CYCLOGENESIS
ON TRACK AND THE WESTWARD SHIFT OF THE MODELS HAS STABILIZED. DRY
SLOT MAY REACH THE COASTLINE LATER TONIGHT...CAUSING THE SNOW TO
END AS A PERIOD OF SLEET OR FREEZING DRIZZLE.

7AM UPDATE... JUST SOME TWEAKS TO THE TEMPERATURES... STILL
RUNNING ON THE WARM SIDE IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS, HOWEVER DEW
POINTS CONTINUE TO DROP AND MORNING KGYX SOUNDING IN PROGRESS
SHOWS VERY DRY AIR ALOFT. HAVE LEFT SNOW AMOUNTS AS IS. LOW IS
DEEPENING WITH HEIGHT FALLS OFF CHESAPEAKE BAY.

AS WE CLOSE IN ON THE STORM MORE AND MORE MESOSCALE DETAILS HAVE
EMERGED, AND HAVE ENHANCED OUR EXISTING FORECAST WITH THESE
DETAILS... HOWEVER THE BROAD PICTURE HAS NOT CHANGED.

 ** A MAJOR WINTER STORM WILL IMPACT NH AND ME THROUGH WEDNESDAY
  AFTERNOON SIGNIFICANTLY HAMPERING TRAVEL**

AT 09Z THE LOW WAS CENTERED JUST OFF THE CAROLINA COAST AND WILL
TRACK RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. TRACK FORECASTS
HAVE COME INTO GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE LOW TO PASS JUST NORTHWEST
OF THE 70W/40N BENCHMARK AROUND 03Z THURSDAY.

THERE ARE TWO MAIN AREAS OF CHANGE FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. THE
FIRST IS THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE HEAVY SNOW. QPF AMOUNTS HAVE
INCREASED IN PRETTY MUCH ALL FORMS OF GUIDANCE... COMBINED WITH
COLD TEMPS AND IDEAL SNOW GROWTH THIS HAS RESULTED IN AN INCREASE
OF SNOWFALL FOR THE NORTHERN MOST ZONES... AND HAVE UPGRADED TO A
WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE WHOLE CWA. SOME POCKETS OF THE UPPER
CT VALLEY MAY REMAIN MARGINAL IN TERMS OF SNOW TOTALS... BUT FEEL
THE MAJORITY OF THE ZONE WILL MEET CRITERIA.

THE OTHER CHANGE... AND OF GREATER CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
BANDING... RESULTING IN VERY HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES. VERY STRONG
BANDING SIGNATURE WITH 700MB FRONTOGENESIS CONCENTRATED IN A LINE
EXTENDING FROM KEENE NH PARALLEL TO THE GULF OF MAINE UP THROUGH
TO CALAIS ME. THIS PAIRS UP NICELY WITH A LAYER OF INSTABILITY
EXTENDING FROM 700 TO 500MB... SETTING US UP FOR A CLASSIC
NORTHWEST SECTOR BAND AS THE LOW PASSES FROM SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND
NORTHEASTWARDS TOWARDS THE BENCHMARK FROM 00Z-06Z TOMORROW. AT
THIS POINT THIS SAME SIGNATURE IS EVIDENT IN ALL THE MAJOR
GUIDANCE GFS/NAM/ECMWF/CMC ... GIVING FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE OF
THE FORMATION OF THE BAND. THE NATURE OF THE BEAST IS THAT THE
EXACT LOCATION MAY SHIFT SLIGHTLY NORTH OR SOUTH.. GIVING VERY
DIFFERENT SNOWFALL TOTALS WITHIN A FEW MILES BUT FEEL THERE WILL
BE PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL PLANE IMPACTED BY THIS FEATURE BETWEEN
00Z AND 06Z. SNOW TOTALS HAVE INCREASED SLIGHTLY THROUGH THIS AREA
TO REFLECT THIS BANDING POTENTIAL.

**THIS BANDING WILL RESULT IN SNOWFALL RATES OF 1-3"/HR THROUGH
 THE MOST INTENSE PARTS OF THE BAND.** IN NEW HAMPSHIRE... THE
 CORRIDOR FROM CONCORD TO MANCHESTER WILL SEE HEAVY SNOW STARTING
 AROUND 21Z AS THE BAND PUSHES NORTHWARDS. BETWEEN 00Z AND 03Z IT
 SETS UP NICELY PARALLEL TO THE COAST THROUGH THE ENTIRE COASTAL
 PLANE... IMPACTING ALL NORTH SOUTH TRAVEL ROUTES IN THE CWA.
 OVERALL THE QUICK MOVING NATURE OF THE SYSTEM WILL HELP AS MOST
 AREAS WILL SEE THE MOST INTENSE SNOWFALL RATES LIMITED TO AROUND
 3HRS. AN EXCEPTION TO THIS IS THE LEWISTON TO AUGUSTA REGION...
 WHERE THE BAND MAY PIVOT AS THE LOW TURNS MORE NORTHWARD KEEPING THE
 I-95 CORRIDOR OF SOUTHWEST MAINE UNDER THE HEAVY SNOW A BIT
 LONGER.

ONCE AGAIN...THE CONDITIONS WILL BE QUICKLY DETERIORATING AND
EXPECTED TO BE THE WORST WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING...COINCIDING
WITH THE BUSIEST TRAVEL TIMES. TRAVELERS SHOULD BE AT THEIR
DESTINATIONS BY WED AFTERNOON IF AT ALL POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
THE STORM WILL RAPIDLY EXIT THE AREA ON THANKSGIVING DAY.. WITH
SNOW CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST IN THE MORNING AND MINIMAL
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION AFTER DAY BREAK.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR FREEZING AND DROP OFF THROUGH THE
DAY AS COLD AIR ALOFT PUSHES INTO THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HEMISPHERIC 500MB PATTERN REMAINS ON THE UNSTABLE SIDE AS SMALL
SCALE BLOCKS SET UP AND BREAK DOWN EVERY COUPLE OF DAYS...ALTHOUGH
OVERALL TREND IS STILL TOWARD A +PNA PATTERN...BUT WITHOUT
SIGNIFICANT AMPLIFICATION...WHICH MEANS MORE IN THE WAY OF A
TROUGH ACROSS ACROSS CENTRAL AND ERN NOAM. SO...ALTHOUGH IT WILL
BE SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED WITH FLUCTUATING TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD...NO
SIGNIFICANT SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED.

IT STARTS OUT COLD THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS SFC RIDGE BUILDS IN
FROM THE SW. MODELS SUGGESTING POSSIBLE INVERTED TROUGH THU
NIGHT...ALTHOUGH STRENGTH AND LOCATION VARY FROM MODEL TO MODEL.
WILL HAVE TO WATCH FUTURE MODELS RUNS TO SEE IF THIS SYSTEM WILL
SPREAD ANY LIGHT SNOW INTO COASTAL SECTIONS. THE HIGHS SHOULD
BUILD IN FOR FRI AND FRI NIGHT...WITH MAXES FRI AND SAT GENERALLY
IN THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30 IN THE N AND 30S ELSEWHERE.

SW FLOW SETS UP FOR SAT NIGHT INTO MON WITH BROAD WAA PATTERN
ALOFT...WHICH WILL WARM THINGS UP A BIT...BUT SHOULD ALSO PRODUCE
A FAIR AMT OF MID-HIGH CLOUDS...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S AND
40S BOTH SUN AND MON. ANOTHER WEAK WAVE AT 500MB TRACKS THRU LATE
MONDAY AND DRAGS A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION...WITH A THREAT
FOR SHRA/SHSN. IT COOL DOWN AGAIN FOR TUE...BUT WARMER AIR
RETURNS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THRU EARLY WED. CONDITIONS
RAPIDLY DETERIORATE FROM S TO N THRU WED AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS
WILL QUICKLY DROP TO IFR AND LOWER BY EVENING. COULD SEE SOME
BRIEF MIXING WITH RA AT KPSM AND KPWM...BEFORE A TRANSITION TO ALL
SNWFL. WINDS ALONG THE COAST WILL BE GUSTY FROM THE NNE...AROUND
25-30 KTS. CONDITIONS QUICKLY IMPROVE TO MVFR OR VFR THU AS LOW
PRES PULLS AWAY.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR THU NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. COASTAL
TERMINALS...ESPECIALLY KPWM/KPSM...HAVE A SLIGHT CHC FOR SOME IFR
IN LIGHT SNOW THU NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...GALE WARNINGS IN EFFECT STARTING WED AFTERNOON.
COASTAL STORM WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE GULF OF ME...WITH A
BRIEF PERIOD OF GALE FORCE GUSTS. SCA WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED
FOLLOWING THE LOW PRES.

LONG TERM...GENERALLY QUIET WITH SUB-SCA CONDS ON THE WATERS THU
NIGHT INTO SAT. SCA MAY BE NEEDED FOR INCREASING SW FLOW ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MEZ012>014-
     018>028.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MEZ007>009.
NH...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NHZ002>010-
     013-014.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NHZ001.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KGYX 261441
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
941 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TODAY AND
TRACK NORTHEAST TO JUST SOUTH OF CAPE COD BY WEDNESDAY
EVENING....BRINGING A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. THE COASTAL LOW WILL CONTINUE NORTHEAST INTO THE
MARITIMES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM
THE WEST ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE FLOW SHIFTS TO THE SOUTHWEST
SUNDAY WITH A WARM UP EXPECTED. ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
938 AM UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS. CYCLOGENESIS
ON TRACK AND THE WESTWARD SHIFT OF THE MODELS HAS STABILIZED. DRY
SLOT MAY REACH THE COASTLINE LATER TONIGHT...CAUSING THE SNOW TO
END AS A PERIOD OF SLEET OR FREEZING DRIZZLE.

7AM UPDATE... JUST SOME TWEAKS TO THE TEMPERATURES... STILL
RUNNING ON THE WARM SIDE IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS, HOWEVER DEW
POINTS CONTINUE TO DROP AND MORNING KGYX SOUNDING IN PROGRESS
SHOWS VERY DRY AIR ALOFT. HAVE LEFT SNOW AMOUNTS AS IS. LOW IS
DEEPENING WITH HEIGHT FALLS OFF CHESAPEAKE BAY.

AS WE CLOSE IN ON THE STORM MORE AND MORE MESOSCALE DETAILS HAVE
EMERGED, AND HAVE ENHANCED OUR EXISTING FORECAST WITH THESE
DETAILS... HOWEVER THE BROAD PICTURE HAS NOT CHANGED.

 ** A MAJOR WINTER STORM WILL IMPACT NH AND ME THROUGH WEDNESDAY
  AFTERNOON SIGNIFICANTLY HAMPERING TRAVEL**

AT 09Z THE LOW WAS CENTERED JUST OFF THE CAROLINA COAST AND WILL
TRACK RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. TRACK FORECASTS
HAVE COME INTO GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE LOW TO PASS JUST NORTHWEST
OF THE 70W/40N BENCHMARK AROUND 03Z THURSDAY.

THERE ARE TWO MAIN AREAS OF CHANGE FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. THE
FIRST IS THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE HEAVY SNOW. QPF AMOUNTS HAVE
INCREASED IN PRETTY MUCH ALL FORMS OF GUIDANCE... COMBINED WITH
COLD TEMPS AND IDEAL SNOW GROWTH THIS HAS RESULTED IN AN INCREASE
OF SNOWFALL FOR THE NORTHERN MOST ZONES... AND HAVE UPGRADED TO A
WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE WHOLE CWA. SOME POCKETS OF THE UPPER
CT VALLEY MAY REMAIN MARGINAL IN TERMS OF SNOW TOTALS... BUT FEEL
THE MAJORITY OF THE ZONE WILL MEET CRITERIA.

THE OTHER CHANGE... AND OF GREATER CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
BANDING... RESULTING IN VERY HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES. VERY STRONG
BANDING SIGNATURE WITH 700MB FRONTOGENESIS CONCENTRATED IN A LINE
EXTENDING FROM KEENE NH PARALLEL TO THE GULF OF MAINE UP THROUGH
TO CALAIS ME. THIS PAIRS UP NICELY WITH A LAYER OF INSTABILITY
EXTENDING FROM 700 TO 500MB... SETTING US UP FOR A CLASSIC
NORTHWEST SECTOR BAND AS THE LOW PASSES FROM SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND
NORTHEASTWARDS TOWARDS THE BENCHMARK FROM 00Z-06Z TOMORROW. AT
THIS POINT THIS SAME SIGNATURE IS EVIDENT IN ALL THE MAJOR
GUIDANCE GFS/NAM/ECMWF/CMC ... GIVING FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE OF
THE FORMATION OF THE BAND. THE NATURE OF THE BEAST IS THAT THE
EXACT LOCATION MAY SHIFT SLIGHTLY NORTH OR SOUTH.. GIVING VERY
DIFFERENT SNOWFALL TOTALS WITHIN A FEW MILES BUT FEEL THERE WILL
BE PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL PLANE IMPACTED BY THIS FEATURE BETWEEN
00Z AND 06Z. SNOW TOTALS HAVE INCREASED SLIGHTLY THROUGH THIS AREA
TO REFLECT THIS BANDING POTENTIAL.

**THIS BANDING WILL RESULT IN SNOWFALL RATES OF 1-3"/HR THROUGH
 THE MOST INTENSE PARTS OF THE BAND.** IN NEW HAMPSHIRE... THE
 CORRIDOR FROM CONCORD TO MANCHESTER WILL SEE HEAVY SNOW STARTING
 AROUND 21Z AS THE BAND PUSHES NORTHWARDS. BETWEEN 00Z AND 03Z IT
 SETS UP NICELY PARALLEL TO THE COAST THROUGH THE ENTIRE COASTAL
 PLANE... IMPACTING ALL NORTH SOUTH TRAVEL ROUTES IN THE CWA.
 OVERALL THE QUICK MOVING NATURE OF THE SYSTEM WILL HELP AS MOST
 AREAS WILL SEE THE MOST INTENSE SNOWFALL RATES LIMITED TO AROUND
 3HRS. AN EXCEPTION TO THIS IS THE LEWISTON TO AUGUSTA REGION...
 WHERE THE BAND MAY PIVOT AS THE LOW TURNS MORE NORTHWARD KEEPING THE
 I-95 CORRIDOR OF SOUTHWEST MAINE UNDER THE HEAVY SNOW A BIT
 LONGER.

ONCE AGAIN...THE CONDITIONS WILL BE QUICKLY DETERIORATING AND
EXPECTED TO BE THE WORST WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING...COINCIDING
WITH THE BUSIEST TRAVEL TIMES. TRAVELERS SHOULD BE AT THEIR
DESTINATIONS BY WED AFTERNOON IF AT ALL POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
THE STORM WILL RAPIDLY EXIT THE AREA ON THANKSGIVING DAY.. WITH
SNOW CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST IN THE MORNING AND MINIMAL
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION AFTER DAY BREAK.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR FREEZING AND DROP OFF THROUGH THE
DAY AS COLD AIR ALOFT PUSHES INTO THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HEMISPHERIC 500MB PATTERN REMAINS ON THE UNSTABLE SIDE AS SMALL
SCALE BLOCKS SET UP AND BREAK DOWN EVERY COUPLE OF DAYS...ALTHOUGH
OVERALL TREND IS STILL TOWARD A +PNA PATTERN...BUT WITHOUT
SIGNIFICANT AMPLIFICATION...WHICH MEANS MORE IN THE WAY OF A
TROUGH ACROSS ACROSS CENTRAL AND ERN NOAM. SO...ALTHOUGH IT WILL
BE SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED WITH FLUCTUATING TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD...NO
SIGNIFICANT SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED.

IT STARTS OUT COLD THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS SFC RIDGE BUILDS IN
FROM THE SW. MODELS SUGGESTING POSSIBLE INVERTED TROUGH THU
NIGHT...ALTHOUGH STRENGTH AND LOCATION VARY FROM MODEL TO MODEL.
WILL HAVE TO WATCH FUTURE MODELS RUNS TO SEE IF THIS SYSTEM WILL
SPREAD ANY LIGHT SNOW INTO COASTAL SECTIONS. THE HIGHS SHOULD
BUILD IN FOR FRI AND FRI NIGHT...WITH MAXES FRI AND SAT GENERALLY
IN THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30 IN THE N AND 30S ELSEWHERE.

SW FLOW SETS UP FOR SAT NIGHT INTO MON WITH BROAD WAA PATTERN
ALOFT...WHICH WILL WARM THINGS UP A BIT...BUT SHOULD ALSO PRODUCE
A FAIR AMT OF MID-HIGH CLOUDS...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S AND
40S BOTH SUN AND MON. ANOTHER WEAK WAVE AT 500MB TRACKS THRU LATE
MONDAY AND DRAGS A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION...WITH A THREAT
FOR SHRA/SHSN. IT COOL DOWN AGAIN FOR TUE...BUT WARMER AIR
RETURNS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THRU EARLY WED. CONDITIONS
RAPIDLY DETERIORATE FROM S TO N THRU WED AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS
WILL QUICKLY DROP TO IFR AND LOWER BY EVENING. COULD SEE SOME
BRIEF MIXING WITH RA AT KPSM AND KPWM...BEFORE A TRANSITION TO ALL
SNWFL. WINDS ALONG THE COAST WILL BE GUSTY FROM THE NNE...AROUND
25-30 KTS. CONDITIONS QUICKLY IMPROVE TO MVFR OR VFR THU AS LOW
PRES PULLS AWAY.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR THU NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. COASTAL
TERMINALS...ESPECIALLY KPWM/KPSM...HAVE A SLIGHT CHC FOR SOME IFR
IN LIGHT SNOW THU NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...GALE WARNINGS IN EFFECT STARTING WED AFTERNOON.
COASTAL STORM WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE GULF OF ME...WITH A
BRIEF PERIOD OF GALE FORCE GUSTS. SCA WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED
FOLLOWING THE LOW PRES.

LONG TERM...GENERALLY QUIET WITH SUB-SCA CONDS ON THE WATERS THU
NIGHT INTO SAT. SCA MAY BE NEEDED FOR INCREASING SW FLOW ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MEZ012>014-
     018>028.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR MEZ007>009.
NH...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NHZ002>010-
     013-014.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR NHZ001.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$
JC



000
FXUS61 KGYX 261441
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
941 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TODAY AND
TRACK NORTHEAST TO JUST SOUTH OF CAPE COD BY WEDNESDAY
EVENING....BRINGING A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. THE COASTAL LOW WILL CONTINUE NORTHEAST INTO THE
MARITIMES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM
THE WEST ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE FLOW SHIFTS TO THE SOUTHWEST
SUNDAY WITH A WARM UP EXPECTED. ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
938 AM UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS. CYCLOGENESIS
ON TRACK AND THE WESTWARD SHIFT OF THE MODELS HAS STABILIZED. DRY
SLOT MAY REACH THE COASTLINE LATER TONIGHT...CAUSING THE SNOW TO
END AS A PERIOD OF SLEET OR FREEZING DRIZZLE.

7AM UPDATE... JUST SOME TWEAKS TO THE TEMPERATURES... STILL
RUNNING ON THE WARM SIDE IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS, HOWEVER DEW
POINTS CONTINUE TO DROP AND MORNING KGYX SOUNDING IN PROGRESS
SHOWS VERY DRY AIR ALOFT. HAVE LEFT SNOW AMOUNTS AS IS. LOW IS
DEEPENING WITH HEIGHT FALLS OFF CHESAPEAKE BAY.

AS WE CLOSE IN ON THE STORM MORE AND MORE MESOSCALE DETAILS HAVE
EMERGED, AND HAVE ENHANCED OUR EXISTING FORECAST WITH THESE
DETAILS... HOWEVER THE BROAD PICTURE HAS NOT CHANGED.

 ** A MAJOR WINTER STORM WILL IMPACT NH AND ME THROUGH WEDNESDAY
  AFTERNOON SIGNIFICANTLY HAMPERING TRAVEL**

AT 09Z THE LOW WAS CENTERED JUST OFF THE CAROLINA COAST AND WILL
TRACK RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. TRACK FORECASTS
HAVE COME INTO GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE LOW TO PASS JUST NORTHWEST
OF THE 70W/40N BENCHMARK AROUND 03Z THURSDAY.

THERE ARE TWO MAIN AREAS OF CHANGE FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. THE
FIRST IS THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE HEAVY SNOW. QPF AMOUNTS HAVE
INCREASED IN PRETTY MUCH ALL FORMS OF GUIDANCE... COMBINED WITH
COLD TEMPS AND IDEAL SNOW GROWTH THIS HAS RESULTED IN AN INCREASE
OF SNOWFALL FOR THE NORTHERN MOST ZONES... AND HAVE UPGRADED TO A
WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE WHOLE CWA. SOME POCKETS OF THE UPPER
CT VALLEY MAY REMAIN MARGINAL IN TERMS OF SNOW TOTALS... BUT FEEL
THE MAJORITY OF THE ZONE WILL MEET CRITERIA.

THE OTHER CHANGE... AND OF GREATER CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
BANDING... RESULTING IN VERY HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES. VERY STRONG
BANDING SIGNATURE WITH 700MB FRONTOGENESIS CONCENTRATED IN A LINE
EXTENDING FROM KEENE NH PARALLEL TO THE GULF OF MAINE UP THROUGH
TO CALAIS ME. THIS PAIRS UP NICELY WITH A LAYER OF INSTABILITY
EXTENDING FROM 700 TO 500MB... SETTING US UP FOR A CLASSIC
NORTHWEST SECTOR BAND AS THE LOW PASSES FROM SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND
NORTHEASTWARDS TOWARDS THE BENCHMARK FROM 00Z-06Z TOMORROW. AT
THIS POINT THIS SAME SIGNATURE IS EVIDENT IN ALL THE MAJOR
GUIDANCE GFS/NAM/ECMWF/CMC ... GIVING FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE OF
THE FORMATION OF THE BAND. THE NATURE OF THE BEAST IS THAT THE
EXACT LOCATION MAY SHIFT SLIGHTLY NORTH OR SOUTH.. GIVING VERY
DIFFERENT SNOWFALL TOTALS WITHIN A FEW MILES BUT FEEL THERE WILL
BE PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL PLANE IMPACTED BY THIS FEATURE BETWEEN
00Z AND 06Z. SNOW TOTALS HAVE INCREASED SLIGHTLY THROUGH THIS AREA
TO REFLECT THIS BANDING POTENTIAL.

**THIS BANDING WILL RESULT IN SNOWFALL RATES OF 1-3"/HR THROUGH
 THE MOST INTENSE PARTS OF THE BAND.** IN NEW HAMPSHIRE... THE
 CORRIDOR FROM CONCORD TO MANCHESTER WILL SEE HEAVY SNOW STARTING
 AROUND 21Z AS THE BAND PUSHES NORTHWARDS. BETWEEN 00Z AND 03Z IT
 SETS UP NICELY PARALLEL TO THE COAST THROUGH THE ENTIRE COASTAL
 PLANE... IMPACTING ALL NORTH SOUTH TRAVEL ROUTES IN THE CWA.
 OVERALL THE QUICK MOVING NATURE OF THE SYSTEM WILL HELP AS MOST
 AREAS WILL SEE THE MOST INTENSE SNOWFALL RATES LIMITED TO AROUND
 3HRS. AN EXCEPTION TO THIS IS THE LEWISTON TO AUGUSTA REGION...
 WHERE THE BAND MAY PIVOT AS THE LOW TURNS MORE NORTHWARD KEEPING THE
 I-95 CORRIDOR OF SOUTHWEST MAINE UNDER THE HEAVY SNOW A BIT
 LONGER.

ONCE AGAIN...THE CONDITIONS WILL BE QUICKLY DETERIORATING AND
EXPECTED TO BE THE WORST WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING...COINCIDING
WITH THE BUSIEST TRAVEL TIMES. TRAVELERS SHOULD BE AT THEIR
DESTINATIONS BY WED AFTERNOON IF AT ALL POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
THE STORM WILL RAPIDLY EXIT THE AREA ON THANKSGIVING DAY.. WITH
SNOW CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST IN THE MORNING AND MINIMAL
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION AFTER DAY BREAK.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR FREEZING AND DROP OFF THROUGH THE
DAY AS COLD AIR ALOFT PUSHES INTO THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HEMISPHERIC 500MB PATTERN REMAINS ON THE UNSTABLE SIDE AS SMALL
SCALE BLOCKS SET UP AND BREAK DOWN EVERY COUPLE OF DAYS...ALTHOUGH
OVERALL TREND IS STILL TOWARD A +PNA PATTERN...BUT WITHOUT
SIGNIFICANT AMPLIFICATION...WHICH MEANS MORE IN THE WAY OF A
TROUGH ACROSS ACROSS CENTRAL AND ERN NOAM. SO...ALTHOUGH IT WILL
BE SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED WITH FLUCTUATING TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD...NO
SIGNIFICANT SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED.

IT STARTS OUT COLD THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS SFC RIDGE BUILDS IN
FROM THE SW. MODELS SUGGESTING POSSIBLE INVERTED TROUGH THU
NIGHT...ALTHOUGH STRENGTH AND LOCATION VARY FROM MODEL TO MODEL.
WILL HAVE TO WATCH FUTURE MODELS RUNS TO SEE IF THIS SYSTEM WILL
SPREAD ANY LIGHT SNOW INTO COASTAL SECTIONS. THE HIGHS SHOULD
BUILD IN FOR FRI AND FRI NIGHT...WITH MAXES FRI AND SAT GENERALLY
IN THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30 IN THE N AND 30S ELSEWHERE.

SW FLOW SETS UP FOR SAT NIGHT INTO MON WITH BROAD WAA PATTERN
ALOFT...WHICH WILL WARM THINGS UP A BIT...BUT SHOULD ALSO PRODUCE
A FAIR AMT OF MID-HIGH CLOUDS...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S AND
40S BOTH SUN AND MON. ANOTHER WEAK WAVE AT 500MB TRACKS THRU LATE
MONDAY AND DRAGS A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION...WITH A THREAT
FOR SHRA/SHSN. IT COOL DOWN AGAIN FOR TUE...BUT WARMER AIR
RETURNS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THRU EARLY WED. CONDITIONS
RAPIDLY DETERIORATE FROM S TO N THRU WED AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS
WILL QUICKLY DROP TO IFR AND LOWER BY EVENING. COULD SEE SOME
BRIEF MIXING WITH RA AT KPSM AND KPWM...BEFORE A TRANSITION TO ALL
SNWFL. WINDS ALONG THE COAST WILL BE GUSTY FROM THE NNE...AROUND
25-30 KTS. CONDITIONS QUICKLY IMPROVE TO MVFR OR VFR THU AS LOW
PRES PULLS AWAY.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR THU NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. COASTAL
TERMINALS...ESPECIALLY KPWM/KPSM...HAVE A SLIGHT CHC FOR SOME IFR
IN LIGHT SNOW THU NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...GALE WARNINGS IN EFFECT STARTING WED AFTERNOON.
COASTAL STORM WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE GULF OF ME...WITH A
BRIEF PERIOD OF GALE FORCE GUSTS. SCA WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED
FOLLOWING THE LOW PRES.

LONG TERM...GENERALLY QUIET WITH SUB-SCA CONDS ON THE WATERS THU
NIGHT INTO SAT. SCA MAY BE NEEDED FOR INCREASING SW FLOW ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MEZ012>014-
     018>028.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR MEZ007>009.
NH...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NHZ002>010-
     013-014.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR NHZ001.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$
JC




000
FXUS61 KCAR 261418
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
918 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE IN THE EASTERN CAROLINAS THIS MORNING WILL PASS NEAR
CAPE COD TONIGHT...AND MOVE INTO NOVA SCOTIA ON THANKSGIVING DAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE EASTERN SEABOARD FRIDAY...AND
MOVE EAST OF THE AREA SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
9AM UPDATE...
NO CHANGES OTHER THAN TO INCREASE SKY COVER FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. NO CHANGES IN THINKING FOR THE STORM SINCE THE EARLIER
UPDATE.

6AM UPDATE...
ADDED HEAVY SNOW THIS EVENING FOR THE ZONES EXPECTED TO BE MOST
IMPACTED...GENERALLY FROM SOUTHERN PISCATAQUIS AND PENOBSCOT
COUNTIES TOWARDS NORTHERN WASHINGTON AND SOUTHERN AROOSTOOK. THIS
BELT SHOULD SEE 10 TO 12 INCHES...BEING FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO AVOID
SLEET AND RECEIVE BETTER SNOW RATIOS...BUT NOT TOO FAR NORTH TO
MISS THE BEST QPF. ALSO REFINED THE ICE FORECAST FOR SOUTHERN
HANCOCK AND WASHINGTON WHERE A WORST CASE OF 1/4 INCH OF ICE IS
POSSIBLE...BUT EFFECTS SHOULD BE MITIGATED BY AT LEAST SEVERAL
INCHES OF SNOW FALLING FIRST AS WELL AS TEMPERATURES AROUND 32F.
MORE WORRISOME IS THE WIND ARRIVING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW.
HAVE INCREASED GUSTS IN THIS UPDATE. GUSTS TO 55 MPH ARE POSSIBLE
IN COASTAL HANCOCK AND WASHINGTON AFTER MIDNIGHT. EVEN IN
BANGOR...GUSTS ABOVE 45 MPH SHOULD BE EASILY ATTAINABLE. WITH
A HEAVY WET SNOW AND THESE WINDS...SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES ARE
LIKELY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY THIS MORNING AND
SWEEP SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. THE FRONT
MAY SET OFF A FEW FLURRIES IN ALONG THE NORTHERN BORDER.
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT RISE TOO MUCH FROM READINGS EARLY THIS
MORNING AS COLDER AIR SWEEPS SOUTHWARD AND CLOUDS THICKEN AHEAD OF
THE STORM. ALTHOUGH SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE NOT FALLEN MUCH
OVERNIGHT...LOWER DEWPOINTS HAVE BEEN STEADILY ADVECTING SOUTHWARD
ALONG WITH COLDER AIR ALOFT. AS A RESULT...EVAPORATIVE COOLING
WITH PRECIPITATION THIS AFTERNOON AND THE CONTINUED DYNAMICAL
COOLING WILL QUICKLY ERASE THE WARM BOUNDARY LAYER AND ALLOW FOR
SNOW THIS AFTERNOON. THE HEAVY SNOW PERIOD IS STILL PROGGED TO BE
LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH SNOW RATES
OVER AN INCH AN HOUR AT TIMES AND WINDS GUSTING TOWARDS 35 MPH
LATER TONIGHT AS WINDS START TURNING NW. THIS WILL CAUSE DRIFTING
ISSUES...ESPECIALLY FURTHER NORTH WHERE THE SNOW WILL NOT BE AS
HEAVY.

THE BIG CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS CYCLE RESULTED IN A SLIGHT
NORTHERN TURN TO THE STORM TRACK TO NORTH OF YARMOUTH IN NOVA
SCOTIA. THIS HAD TWO EFFECTS. FIRST...THE WINTER STORM WARNING WAS
EXTENDED NORTHWARD TO INCLUDE ALL OF PISCATAQUIS COUNTY AS WELL AS
NORTHEASTERN AROOSTOOK WHERE BETTER SNOW RATIOS ARE ANTICIPATED.
SECOND...THE MORE NORTHERN TRACK MEANS MORE WARM AIR ALONG IN
COASTAL HANCOCK AND WASHINGTON COUNTIES LATER THIS EVENING. IN
THESE LOCATIONS...EXPECT SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE TRADED FOR
SLEET ACCUMULATION IN A RATHER NARROW SWATH FROM ELLSWORTH TO
CALAIS. ALONG THIS CORRIDOR...A HALF INCH OF SLEET ACCUMULATION IS
POSSIBLE AND MAYBE MORE TOWARDS CALAIS. SOME FREEZING RAIN MAY MIX
IN AT TIMES TOO IN THIS REGION BUT THE WARM LAYER LOOKS TO BE MORE
A SLEET PRODUCER THAN FREEZING RAIN. NONETHELESS...WIND GUSTS OF
NEARLY 50 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT WILL MAKE POWER OUTAGES A CONCERN FOR
BANGOR AND DOWN EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE SNOW STORM WILL BE WINDING DOWN QUICKLY FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS
THE CWA THU MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE OVER NOVA SCOTIA AT 12Z THU
LIFTS UP TO NEWFOUNDLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD TOWARD THE EASTERN SEABOARD FRIDAY. THE WIND WILL DIMINISH
PRETTY QUICKLY BY MID AFTERNOON THU AND WILL BECOME LIGHT THU
EVENING SO NO SIGNIFICANT ISSUES WITH BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW
EXPECTED AFTER THE SNOW COMES TO AN END. MAINLY DRY AND COLD
WEATHER EXPECTED THU NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE
TEENS AND HIGHS FRIDAY FROM THE MID 20S ACROSS THE CROWN OF MAINE
TO NEAR 30 ALONG THE COAST. A MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CROSS
THE AREA FRI AND IT COULD TOUCH OFF A FEW SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE
WESTERN MOUNTAINS AND ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE FROM THE KATAHDIN
REGION NORTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DRY AND COLD FRI NIGHT AND SAT AS HIGH PRESSURE TO SLOWLY SLIDE
EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC SAT. A CLIPPER FROM THE MIDWEST IS
EXPECTED TO LIFT TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT ALTHOUGH
THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS AND FROM
RUN TO RUN OF THE VARIOUS MODELS. THERE COULD BE A BIT OF
OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF THE LOW ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE
LATE SAT NIGHT AND SUN. WHAT LOOKS MORE CERTAIN IS THAT THIS LOW
WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A STRONG COLD FRONT MON WITH A SHOT OF VERY
COLD AIR FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE REGION. THE AIR MASS BY TUE MORNING LOOKS TO BE THE COLDEST SO
FAR THIS WINTER. AS THE HIGH WILL STILL BE WELL WEST OF THE AREA
MON NIGHT THERE WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO BE SOME WIND AND
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT GET AS COLD AS THE AIR MASS WOULD SUPPORT.
ALTHOUGH THE AIR MASS ALOFT BEGINS TO MODERATE TUE NIGHT THERE IS
A BETTER CHANCE THAT THIS WILL BE THE COLDEST NIGHT AS THE HIGH
SETTLES OVER THE REGION. MODERATION OF THE AIR MASS IS THEN
EXPECTED WED AS THE HIGH RETREATS TO THE EAST AND A MILDER RETURN
FLOW SETS UP.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS IS POSSIBLE FROM PQI NORTHWARD
THIS MORNING AS A COLD FRONT SWINGS SOUTHWARD. OTHERWISE...IFR
BREAKS OUT FOR BGR AND BHB EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND SPREADS
STEADILY NORTH TO FVE BY EVENING. 1/4SM VIS IS EXPECTED FOR BGR
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LIFR CONDITIONS WILL AFFECT ALL
SITES TONIGHT. FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET ARE EXPECTED LATER THIS
EVENING AT BHB. WINDS AT FL020 WILL APPROACH 50 TO 60 KTS THIS
EVENING AT BHB AND BGR WITH LLWS A STRONG THREAT.

SHORT TERM: IFR IN SNOW EARLY THU WILL GIVE WAY TO VFR BY THU
AFTERNOON AS THE SNOW ENDS AND CLEARING FOLLOWS. VFR EXPECTED THU
NIGHT THROUGH SAT. POTENTIAL FOR VFR OR IFR SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY SO
AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: EXTENDED THE GALE FROM 7PM TO 7AM. VERY STRONG
NORTHEAST WINDS APPROACHING STORM FORCE WILL AFFECT THE WATERS
DURING THE EVENING. HAVE COVERED WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 50 KTS...BUT
AN UPGRADE TO STORM WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED. WINDS WILL DIMINISH
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE LOW PASSES...BUT INCREASE FROM THE NW LATER
IN THE NIGHT.

SHORT TERM: GALES EARLY THURSDAY WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE TRANSITIONED
TO A SCA BY MIDDAY THU AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY FROM THE WATERS. THE
WIND SHOULD DIMINISH AND THE SEAS SUBSIDE TO BELOW SCA LEVELS THU
NIGHT. ANOTHER SCA WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED BY LATE SAT AHEAD OF THE
NEXT SYSTEM THAT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR MEZ002-004.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR MEZ001-003.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MEZ005-006-
     010-011-015>017-029>032.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...FOISY/MCW
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM...CB
AVIATION...FOISY/MCW/CB
MARINE...FOISY/MCW/CB



000
FXUS61 KCAR 261418
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
918 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE IN THE EASTERN CAROLINAS THIS MORNING WILL PASS NEAR
CAPE COD TONIGHT...AND MOVE INTO NOVA SCOTIA ON THANKSGIVING DAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE EASTERN SEABOARD FRIDAY...AND
MOVE EAST OF THE AREA SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
9AM UPDATE...
NO CHANGES OTHER THAN TO INCREASE SKY COVER FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. NO CHANGES IN THINKING FOR THE STORM SINCE THE EARLIER
UPDATE.

6AM UPDATE...
ADDED HEAVY SNOW THIS EVENING FOR THE ZONES EXPECTED TO BE MOST
IMPACTED...GENERALLY FROM SOUTHERN PISCATAQUIS AND PENOBSCOT
COUNTIES TOWARDS NORTHERN WASHINGTON AND SOUTHERN AROOSTOOK. THIS
BELT SHOULD SEE 10 TO 12 INCHES...BEING FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO AVOID
SLEET AND RECEIVE BETTER SNOW RATIOS...BUT NOT TOO FAR NORTH TO
MISS THE BEST QPF. ALSO REFINED THE ICE FORECAST FOR SOUTHERN
HANCOCK AND WASHINGTON WHERE A WORST CASE OF 1/4 INCH OF ICE IS
POSSIBLE...BUT EFFECTS SHOULD BE MITIGATED BY AT LEAST SEVERAL
INCHES OF SNOW FALLING FIRST AS WELL AS TEMPERATURES AROUND 32F.
MORE WORRISOME IS THE WIND ARRIVING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW.
HAVE INCREASED GUSTS IN THIS UPDATE. GUSTS TO 55 MPH ARE POSSIBLE
IN COASTAL HANCOCK AND WASHINGTON AFTER MIDNIGHT. EVEN IN
BANGOR...GUSTS ABOVE 45 MPH SHOULD BE EASILY ATTAINABLE. WITH
A HEAVY WET SNOW AND THESE WINDS...SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES ARE
LIKELY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY THIS MORNING AND
SWEEP SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. THE FRONT
MAY SET OFF A FEW FLURRIES IN ALONG THE NORTHERN BORDER.
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT RISE TOO MUCH FROM READINGS EARLY THIS
MORNING AS COLDER AIR SWEEPS SOUTHWARD AND CLOUDS THICKEN AHEAD OF
THE STORM. ALTHOUGH SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE NOT FALLEN MUCH
OVERNIGHT...LOWER DEWPOINTS HAVE BEEN STEADILY ADVECTING SOUTHWARD
ALONG WITH COLDER AIR ALOFT. AS A RESULT...EVAPORATIVE COOLING
WITH PRECIPITATION THIS AFTERNOON AND THE CONTINUED DYNAMICAL
COOLING WILL QUICKLY ERASE THE WARM BOUNDARY LAYER AND ALLOW FOR
SNOW THIS AFTERNOON. THE HEAVY SNOW PERIOD IS STILL PROGGED TO BE
LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH SNOW RATES
OVER AN INCH AN HOUR AT TIMES AND WINDS GUSTING TOWARDS 35 MPH
LATER TONIGHT AS WINDS START TURNING NW. THIS WILL CAUSE DRIFTING
ISSUES...ESPECIALLY FURTHER NORTH WHERE THE SNOW WILL NOT BE AS
HEAVY.

THE BIG CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS CYCLE RESULTED IN A SLIGHT
NORTHERN TURN TO THE STORM TRACK TO NORTH OF YARMOUTH IN NOVA
SCOTIA. THIS HAD TWO EFFECTS. FIRST...THE WINTER STORM WARNING WAS
EXTENDED NORTHWARD TO INCLUDE ALL OF PISCATAQUIS COUNTY AS WELL AS
NORTHEASTERN AROOSTOOK WHERE BETTER SNOW RATIOS ARE ANTICIPATED.
SECOND...THE MORE NORTHERN TRACK MEANS MORE WARM AIR ALONG IN
COASTAL HANCOCK AND WASHINGTON COUNTIES LATER THIS EVENING. IN
THESE LOCATIONS...EXPECT SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE TRADED FOR
SLEET ACCUMULATION IN A RATHER NARROW SWATH FROM ELLSWORTH TO
CALAIS. ALONG THIS CORRIDOR...A HALF INCH OF SLEET ACCUMULATION IS
POSSIBLE AND MAYBE MORE TOWARDS CALAIS. SOME FREEZING RAIN MAY MIX
IN AT TIMES TOO IN THIS REGION BUT THE WARM LAYER LOOKS TO BE MORE
A SLEET PRODUCER THAN FREEZING RAIN. NONETHELESS...WIND GUSTS OF
NEARLY 50 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT WILL MAKE POWER OUTAGES A CONCERN FOR
BANGOR AND DOWN EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE SNOW STORM WILL BE WINDING DOWN QUICKLY FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS
THE CWA THU MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE OVER NOVA SCOTIA AT 12Z THU
LIFTS UP TO NEWFOUNDLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD TOWARD THE EASTERN SEABOARD FRIDAY. THE WIND WILL DIMINISH
PRETTY QUICKLY BY MID AFTERNOON THU AND WILL BECOME LIGHT THU
EVENING SO NO SIGNIFICANT ISSUES WITH BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW
EXPECTED AFTER THE SNOW COMES TO AN END. MAINLY DRY AND COLD
WEATHER EXPECTED THU NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE
TEENS AND HIGHS FRIDAY FROM THE MID 20S ACROSS THE CROWN OF MAINE
TO NEAR 30 ALONG THE COAST. A MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CROSS
THE AREA FRI AND IT COULD TOUCH OFF A FEW SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE
WESTERN MOUNTAINS AND ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE FROM THE KATAHDIN
REGION NORTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DRY AND COLD FRI NIGHT AND SAT AS HIGH PRESSURE TO SLOWLY SLIDE
EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC SAT. A CLIPPER FROM THE MIDWEST IS
EXPECTED TO LIFT TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT ALTHOUGH
THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS AND FROM
RUN TO RUN OF THE VARIOUS MODELS. THERE COULD BE A BIT OF
OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF THE LOW ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE
LATE SAT NIGHT AND SUN. WHAT LOOKS MORE CERTAIN IS THAT THIS LOW
WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A STRONG COLD FRONT MON WITH A SHOT OF VERY
COLD AIR FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE REGION. THE AIR MASS BY TUE MORNING LOOKS TO BE THE COLDEST SO
FAR THIS WINTER. AS THE HIGH WILL STILL BE WELL WEST OF THE AREA
MON NIGHT THERE WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO BE SOME WIND AND
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT GET AS COLD AS THE AIR MASS WOULD SUPPORT.
ALTHOUGH THE AIR MASS ALOFT BEGINS TO MODERATE TUE NIGHT THERE IS
A BETTER CHANCE THAT THIS WILL BE THE COLDEST NIGHT AS THE HIGH
SETTLES OVER THE REGION. MODERATION OF THE AIR MASS IS THEN
EXPECTED WED AS THE HIGH RETREATS TO THE EAST AND A MILDER RETURN
FLOW SETS UP.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS IS POSSIBLE FROM PQI NORTHWARD
THIS MORNING AS A COLD FRONT SWINGS SOUTHWARD. OTHERWISE...IFR
BREAKS OUT FOR BGR AND BHB EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND SPREADS
STEADILY NORTH TO FVE BY EVENING. 1/4SM VIS IS EXPECTED FOR BGR
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LIFR CONDITIONS WILL AFFECT ALL
SITES TONIGHT. FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET ARE EXPECTED LATER THIS
EVENING AT BHB. WINDS AT FL020 WILL APPROACH 50 TO 60 KTS THIS
EVENING AT BHB AND BGR WITH LLWS A STRONG THREAT.

SHORT TERM: IFR IN SNOW EARLY THU WILL GIVE WAY TO VFR BY THU
AFTERNOON AS THE SNOW ENDS AND CLEARING FOLLOWS. VFR EXPECTED THU
NIGHT THROUGH SAT. POTENTIAL FOR VFR OR IFR SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY SO
AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: EXTENDED THE GALE FROM 7PM TO 7AM. VERY STRONG
NORTHEAST WINDS APPROACHING STORM FORCE WILL AFFECT THE WATERS
DURING THE EVENING. HAVE COVERED WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 50 KTS...BUT
AN UPGRADE TO STORM WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED. WINDS WILL DIMINISH
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE LOW PASSES...BUT INCREASE FROM THE NW LATER
IN THE NIGHT.

SHORT TERM: GALES EARLY THURSDAY WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE TRANSITIONED
TO A SCA BY MIDDAY THU AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY FROM THE WATERS. THE
WIND SHOULD DIMINISH AND THE SEAS SUBSIDE TO BELOW SCA LEVELS THU
NIGHT. ANOTHER SCA WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED BY LATE SAT AHEAD OF THE
NEXT SYSTEM THAT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR MEZ002-004.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR MEZ001-003.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MEZ005-006-
     010-011-015>017-029>032.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...FOISY/MCW
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM...CB
AVIATION...FOISY/MCW/CB
MARINE...FOISY/MCW/CB




000
FXUS61 KGYX 261202
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
702 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TODAY AND
TRACK NORTHEAST TO JUST SOUTH OF CAPE COD BY WEDNESDAY
EVENING....BRINGING A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. THE COASTAL LOW WILL CONTINUE NORTHEAST INTO THE
MARITIMES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM
THE WEST ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE FLOW SHIFTS TO THE SOUTHWEST
SUNDAY WITH A WARM UP EXPECTED. ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
7AM UPDATE... JUST SOME TWEAKS TO THE TEMPERATURES... STILL
RUNNING ON THE WARM SIDE IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS, HOWEVER DEW
POINTS CONTINUE TO DROP AND MORNING KGYX SOUNDING IN PROGRESS
SHOWS VERY DRY AIR ALOFT. HAVE LEFT SNOW AMOUNTS AS IS. LOW IS
DEEPENING WITH HEIGHT FALLS OFF CHESAPEAKE BAY.

AS WE CLOSE IN ON THE STORM MORE AND MORE MESOSCALE DETAILS HAVE
EMERGED, AND HAVE ENHANCED OUR EXISTING FORECAST WITH THESE
DETAILS... HOWEVER THE BROAD PICTURE HAS NOT CHANGED.

 ** A MAJOR WINTER STORM WILL IMPACT NH AND ME THROUGH WEDNESDAY
  AFTERNOON SIGNIFICANTLY HAMPERING TRAVEL**

AT 09Z THE LOW WAS CENTERED JUST OFF THE CAROLINA COAST AND WILL
TRACK RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. TRACK FORECASTS
HAVE COME INTO GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE LOW TO PASS JUST NORTHWEST
OF THE 70W/40N BENCHMARK AROUND 03Z THURSDAY.

THERE ARE TWO MAIN AREAS OF CHANGE FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. THE
FIRST IS THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE HEAVY SNOW. QPF AMOUNTS HAVE
INCREASED IN PRETTY MUCH ALL FORMS OF GUIDANCE... COMBINED WITH
COLD TEMPS AND IDEAL SNOW GROWTH THIS HAS RESULTED IN AN INCREASE
OF SNOWFALL FOR THE NORTHERN MOST ZONES... AND HAVE UPGRADED TO A
WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE WHOLE CWA. SOME POCKETS OF THE UPPER
CT VALLEY MAY REMAIN MARGINAL IN TERMS OF SNOW TOTALS... BUT FEEL
THE MAJORITY OF THE ZONE WILL MEET CRITERIA.

THE OTHER CHANGE... AND OF GREATER CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
BANDING... RESULTING IN VERY HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES. VERY STRONG
BANDING SIGNATURE WITH 700MB FRONTOGENESIS CONCENTRATED IN A LINE
EXTENDING FROM KEENE NH PARALLEL TO THE GULF OF MAINE UP THROUGH
TO CALAIS ME. THIS PAIRS UP NICELY WITH A LAYER OF INSTABILITY
EXTENDING FROM 700 TO 500MB... SETTING US UP FOR A CLASSIC
NORTHWEST SECTOR BAND AS THE LOW PASSES FROM SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND
NORTHEASTWARDS TOWARDS THE BENCHMARK FROM 00Z-06Z TOMORROW. AT
THIS POINT THIS SAME SIGNATURE IS EVIDENT IN ALL THE MAJOR
GUIDANCE GFS/NAM/ECMWF/CMC ... GIVING FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE OF
THE FORMATION OF THE BAND. THE NATURE OF THE BEAST IS THAT THE
EXACT LOCATION MAY SHIFT SLIGHTLY NORTH OR SOUTH.. GIVING VERY
DIFFERENT SNOWFALL TOTALS WITHIN A FEW MILES BUT FEEL THERE WILL
BE PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL PLANE IMPACTED BY THIS FEATURE BETWEEN
00Z AND 06Z. SNOW TOTALS HAVE INCREASED SLIGHTLY THROUGH THIS AREA
TO REFLECT THIS BANDING POTENTIAL.

**THIS BANDING WILL RESULT IN SNOWFALL RATES OF 1-3"/HR THROUGH
 THE MOST INTENSE PARTS OF THE BAND.** IN NEW HAMPSHIRE... THE
 CORRIDOR FROM CONCORD TO MANCHESTER WILL SEE HEAVY SNOW STARTING
 AROUND 21Z AS THE BAND PUSHES NORTHWARDS. BETWEEN 00Z AND 03Z IT
 SETS UP NICELY PARALLEL TO THE COAST THROUGH THE ENTIRE COASTAL
 PLANE... IMPACTING ALL NORTH SOUTH TRAVEL ROUTES IN THE CWA.
 OVERALL THE QUICK MOVING NATURE OF THE SYSTEM WILL HELP AS MOST
 AREAS WILL SEE THE MOST INTENSE SNOWFALL RATES LIMITED TO AROUND
 3HRS. AN EXCEPTION TO THIS IS THE LEWISTON TO AUGUSTA REGION...
 WHERE THE BAND MAY PIVOT AS THE LOW TURNS MORE NORTHWARD KEEPING THE
 I-95 CORRIDOR OF SOUTHWEST MAINE UNDER THE HEAVY SNOW A BIT
 LONGER.

ONCE AGAIN...THE CONDITIONS WILL BE QUICKLY DETERIORATING AND
EXPECTED TO BE THE WORST WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING...COINCIDING
WITH THE BUSIEST TRAVEL TIMES. TRAVELERS SHOULD BE AT THEIR
DESTINATIONS BY WED AFTERNOON IF AT ALL POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
THE STORM WILL RAPIDLY EXIT THE AREA ON THANKSGIVING DAY.. WITH
SNOW CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST IN THE MORNING AND MINIMAL
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION AFTER DAY BREAK.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR FREEZING AND DROP OFF THROUGH THE
DAY AS COLD AIR ALOFT PUSHES INTO THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HEMISPHERIC 500MB PATTERN REMAINS ON THE UNSTABLE SIDE AS SMALL
SCALE BLOCKS SET UP AND BREAK DOWN EVERY COUPLE OF DAYS...ALTHOUGH
OVERALL TREND IS STILL TOWARD A +PNA PATTERN...BUT WITHOUT
SIGNIFICANT AMPLIFICATION...WHICH MEANS MORE IN THE WAY OF A
TROUGH ACROSS ACROSS CENTRAL AND ERN NOAM. SO...ALTHOUGH IT WILL
BE SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED WITH FLUCTUATING TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD...NO
SIGNIFICANT SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED.

IT STARTS OUT COLD THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS SFC RIDGE BUILDS IN
FROM THE SW. MODELS SUGGESTING POSSIBLE INVERTED TROUGH THU
NIGHT...ALTHOUGH STRENGTH AND LOCATION VARY FROM MODEL TO MODEL.
WILL HAVE TO WATCH FUTURE MODELS RUNS TO SEE IF THIS SYSTEM WILL
SPREAD ANY LIGHT SNOW INTO COASTAL SECTIONS. THE HIGHS SHOULD
BUILD IN FOR FRI AND FRI NIGHT...WITH MAXES FRI AND SAT GENERALLY
IN THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30 IN THE N AND 30S ELSEWHERE.

SW FLOW SETS UP FOR SAT NIGHT INTO MON WITH BROAD WAA PATTERN
ALOFT...WHICH WILL WARM THINGS UP A BIT...BUT SHOULD ALSO PRODUCE
A FAIR AMT OF MID-HIGH CLOUDS...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S AND
40S BOTH SUN AND MON. ANOTHER WEAK WAVE AT 500MB TRACKS THRU LATE
MONDAY AND DRAGS A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION...WITH A THREAT
FOR SHRA/SHSN. IT COOL DOWN AGAIN FOR TUE...BUT WARMER AIR
RETURNS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THRU EARLY WED. CONDITIONS
RAPIDLY DETERIORATE FROM S TO N THRU WED AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS
WILL QUICKLY DROP TO IFR AND LOWER BY EVENING. COULD SEE SOME
BRIEF MIXING WITH RA AT KPSM AND KPWM...BEFORE A TRANSITION TO ALL
SNWFL. WINDS ALONG THE COAST WILL BE GUSTY FROM THE NNE...AROUND
25-30 KTS. CONDITIONS QUICKLY IMPROVE TO MVFR OR VFR THU AS LOW
PRES PULLS AWAY.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR THU NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. COASTAL
TERMINALS...ESPECIALLY KPWM/KPSM...HAVE A SLIGHT CHC FOR SOME IFR
IN LIGHT SNOW THU NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...GALE WARNINGS IN EFFECT STARTING WED AFTERNOON.
COASTAL STORM WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE GULF OF ME...WITH A
BRIEF PERIOD OF GALE FORCE GUSTS. SCA WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED
FOLLOWING THE LOW PRES.

LONG TERM...GENERALLY QUIET WITH SUB-SCA CONDS ON THE WATERS THU
NIGHT INTO SAT. SCA MAY BE NEEDED FOR INCREASING SW FLOW ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR MEZ012>014-018>028.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR MEZ007>009.
NH...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR NHZ002>010-013-014.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR NHZ001.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CURTIS
SHORT TERM...CURTIS
LONG TERM...CEMPA
AVIATION...CEMPA/CURTIS
MARINE...CEMPA/CURTIS



000
FXUS61 KCAR 261125
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
625 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE IN THE EASTERN CAROLINAS THIS MORNING WILL PASS NEAR
CAPE COD TONIGHT...AND MOVE INTO NOVA SCOTIA ON THANKSGIVING DAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE EASTERN SEABOARD FRIDAY...AND
MOVE EAST OF THE AREA SATURDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
6AM UPDATE...
ADDED HEAVY SNOW THIS EVENING FOR THE ZONES EXPECTED TO BE MOST
IMPACTED...GENERALLY FROM SOUTHERN PISCATAQUIS AND PENOBSCOT
COUNTIES TOWARDS NORTHERN WASHINGTON AND SOUTHERN AROOSTOOK. THIS
BELT SHOULD SEE 10 TO 12 INCHES...BEING FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO AVOID
SLEET AND RECEIVE BETTER SNOW RATIOS...BUT NOT TOO FAR NORTH TO
MISS THE BEST QPF. ALSO REFINED THE ICE FORECAST FOR SOUTHERN
HANCOCK AND WASHINGTON WHERE A WORST CASE OF 1/4 INCH OF ICE IS
POSSIBLE...BUT EFFECTS SHOULD BE MITIGATED BY AT LEAST SEVERAL
INCHES OF SNOW FALLING FIRST AS WELL AS TEMPERATURES AROUND 32F.
MORE WORRISOME IS THE WIND ARRIVING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW.
HAVE INCREASED GUSTS IN THIS UPDATE. GUSTS TO 55 MPH ARE POSSIBLE
IN COASTAL HANCOCK AND WASHINGTON AFTER MIDNIGHT. EVEN IN
BANGOR...GUSTS ABOVE 45 MPH SHOULD BE EASILY ATTAINABLE. WITH
A HEAVY WET SNOW AND THESE WINDS...THE POTENTIAL FOR POWER
OUTAGES APPEARS HIGH.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY THIS MORNING AND
SWEEP SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. THE FRONT
MAY SET OFF A FEW FLURRIES IN ALONG THE NORTHERN BORDER.
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT RISE TOO MUCH FROM READINGS EARLY THIS
MORNING AS COLDER AIR SWEEPS SOUTHWARD AND CLOUDS THICKEN AHEAD OF
THE STORM. ALTHOUGH SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE NOT FALLEN MUCH
OVERNIGHT...LOWER DEWPOINTS HAVE BEEN STEADILY ADVECTING SOUTHWARD
ALONG WITH COLDER AIR ALOFT. AS A RESULT...EVAPORATIVE COOLING
WITH PRECIPITATION THIS AFTERNOON AND THE CONTINUED DYNAMICAL
COOLING WILL QUICKLY ERASE THE WARM BOUNDARY LAYER AND ALLOW FOR
SNOW THIS AFTERNOON. THE HEAVY SNOW PERIOD IS STILL PROGGED TO BE
LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH SNOW RATES
OVER AN INCH AN HOUR AT TIMES AND WINDS GUSTING TOWARDS 35 MPH
LATER TONIGHT AS WINDS START TURNING NW. THIS WILL CAUSE DRIFTING
ISSUES...ESPECIALLY FURTHER NORTH WHERE THE SNOW WILL NOT BE AS
HEAVY.

THE BIG CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS CYCLE RESULTED IN A SLIGHT
NORTHERN TURN TO THE STORM TRACK TO NORTH OF YARMOUTH IN NOVA
SCOTIA. THIS HAD TWO EFFECTS. FIRST...THE WINTER STORM WARNING WAS
EXTENDED NORTHWARD TO INCLUDE ALL OF PISCATAQUIS COUNTY AS WELL AS
NORTHEASTERN AROOSTOOK WHERE BETTER SNOW RATIOS ARE ANTICIPATED.
SECOND...THE MORE NORTHERN TRACK MEANS MORE WARM AIR ALONG IN
COASTAL HANCOCK AND WASHINGTON COUNTIES LATER THIS EVENING. IN
THESE LOCATIONS...EXPECT SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE TRADED FOR
SLEET ACCUMULATION IN A RATHER NARROW SWATH FROM ELLSWORTH TO
CALAIS. ALONG THIS CORRIDOR...A HALF INCH OF SLEET ACCUMULATION IS
POSSIBLE AND MAYBE MORE TOWARDS CALAIS. SOME FREEZING RAIN MAY MIX
IN AT TIMES TOO IN THIS REGION BUT THE WARM LAYER LOOKS TO BE MORE
A SLEET PRODUCER THAN FREEZING RAIN. NONETHELESS...WIND GUSTS OF
NEARLY 50 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT WILL MAKE POWER OUTAGES A CONCERN FOR
BANGOR AND DOWN EAST.
&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE SNOW STORM WILL BE WINDING DOWN QUICKLY FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS
THE CWA THU MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE OVER NOVA SCOTIA AT 12Z THU
LIFTS UP TO NEWFOUNDLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD TOWARD THE EASTERN SEABOARD FRIDAY. THE WIND WILL DIMINISH
PRETTY QUICKLY BY MID AFTERNOON THU AND WILL BECOME LIGHT THU
EVENING SO NO SIGNIFICANT ISSUES WITH BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW
EXPECTED AFTER THE SNOW COMES TO AN END. MAINLY DRY AND COLD
WEATHER EXPECTED THU NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE
TEENS AND HIGHS FRIDAY FROM THE MID 20S ACROSS THE CROWN OF MAINE
TO NEAR 30 ALONG THE COAST. A MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CROSS
THE AREA FRI AND IT COULD TOUCH OFF A FEW SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE
WESTERN MOUNTAINS AND ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE FROM THE KATAHDIN
REGION NORTH.
&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DRY AND COLD FRI NIGHT AND SAT AS HIGH PRESSURE TO SLOWLY SLIDE
EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC SAT. A CLIPPER FROM THE MIDWEST IS
EXPECTED TO LIFT TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT ALTHOUGH
THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS AND FROM
RUN TO RUN OF THE VARIOUS MODELS. THERE COULD BE A BIT OF
OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF THE LOW ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE
LATE SAT NIGHT AND SUN. WHAT LOOKS MORE CERTAIN IS THAT THIS LOW
WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A STRONG COLD FRONT MON WITH A SHOT OF VERY
COLD AIR FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE REGION. THE AIR MASS BY TUE MORNING LOOKS TO BE THE COLDEST SO
FAR THIS WINTER. AS THE HIGH WILL STILL BE WELL WEST OF THE AREA
MON NIGHT THERE WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO BE SOME WIND AND
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT GET AS COLD AS THE AIR MASS WOULD SUPPORT.
ALTHOUGH THE AIR MASS ALOFT BEGINS TO MODERATE TUE NIGHT THERE IS
A BETTER CHANCE THAT THIS WILL BE THE COLDEST NIGHT AS THE HIGH
SETTLES OVER THE REGION. MODERATION OF THE AIR MASS IS THEN
EXPECTED WED AS THE HIGH RETREATS TO THE EAST AND A MILDER RETURN
FLOW SETS UP.
&&

.AVIATION /11Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS IS POSSIBLE FROM PQI NORTHWARD
THIS MORNING AS A COLD FRONT SWINGS SOUTHWARD. OTHERWISE...IFR
BREAKS OUT FOR BGR AND BHB EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND SPREADS
STEADILY NORTH TO FVE BY EVENING. 1/4SM VIS IS EXPECTED FOR BGR
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LIFR CONDITIONS WILL AFFECT ALL
SITES TONIGHT. FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET ARE EXPECTED LATER THIS
EVENING AT BHB. WINDS AT FL020 WILL APPROACH 50 TO 60 KTS THIS
EVENING AT BHB AND BGR WITH LLWS A STRONG THREAT.

SHORT TERM: IFR IN SNOW EARLY THU WILL GIVE WAY TO VFR BY THU
AFTERNOON AS THE SNOW ENDS AND CLEARING FOLLOWS. VFR EXPECTED THU
NIGHT THROUGH SAT. POTENTIAL FOR VFR OR IFR SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY SO
AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: EXTENDED THE GALE FROM 7PM TO 7AM. VERY STRONG
NORTHEAST WINDS APPROACHING STORM FORCE WILL AFFECT THE WATERS
DURING THE EVENING. HAVE COVERED WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 50 KTS...BUT
AN UPGRADE TO STORM WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED. WINDS WILL DIMINISH
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE LOW PASSES...BUT INCREASE FROM THE NW LATER
IN THE NIGHT.

SHORT TERM: GALES EARLY THURSDAY WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE TRANSITIONED
TO A SCA BY MIDDAY THU AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY FROM THE WATERS. THE
WIND SHOULD DIMINISH AND THE SEAS SUBSIDE TO BELOW SCA LEVELS THU
NIGHT. ANOTHER SCA WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED BY LATE SAT AHEAD OF THE
NEXT SYSTEM THAT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR MEZ002-004.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR MEZ001-003.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
     MEZ005-006-010-011-015>017-029>032.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ050>052.
&&
$$

NEAR TERM...MCW
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM...CB
AVIATION...MCW/CB
MARINE...MCW/CB




000
FXUS61 KCAR 261125
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
625 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE IN THE EASTERN CAROLINAS THIS MORNING WILL PASS NEAR
CAPE COD TONIGHT...AND MOVE INTO NOVA SCOTIA ON THANKSGIVING DAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE EASTERN SEABOARD FRIDAY...AND
MOVE EAST OF THE AREA SATURDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
6AM UPDATE...
ADDED HEAVY SNOW THIS EVENING FOR THE ZONES EXPECTED TO BE MOST
IMPACTED...GENERALLY FROM SOUTHERN PISCATAQUIS AND PENOBSCOT
COUNTIES TOWARDS NORTHERN WASHINGTON AND SOUTHERN AROOSTOOK. THIS
BELT SHOULD SEE 10 TO 12 INCHES...BEING FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO AVOID
SLEET AND RECEIVE BETTER SNOW RATIOS...BUT NOT TOO FAR NORTH TO
MISS THE BEST QPF. ALSO REFINED THE ICE FORECAST FOR SOUTHERN
HANCOCK AND WASHINGTON WHERE A WORST CASE OF 1/4 INCH OF ICE IS
POSSIBLE...BUT EFFECTS SHOULD BE MITIGATED BY AT LEAST SEVERAL
INCHES OF SNOW FALLING FIRST AS WELL AS TEMPERATURES AROUND 32F.
MORE WORRISOME IS THE WIND ARRIVING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW.
HAVE INCREASED GUSTS IN THIS UPDATE. GUSTS TO 55 MPH ARE POSSIBLE
IN COASTAL HANCOCK AND WASHINGTON AFTER MIDNIGHT. EVEN IN
BANGOR...GUSTS ABOVE 45 MPH SHOULD BE EASILY ATTAINABLE. WITH
A HEAVY WET SNOW AND THESE WINDS...THE POTENTIAL FOR POWER
OUTAGES APPEARS HIGH.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY THIS MORNING AND
SWEEP SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. THE FRONT
MAY SET OFF A FEW FLURRIES IN ALONG THE NORTHERN BORDER.
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT RISE TOO MUCH FROM READINGS EARLY THIS
MORNING AS COLDER AIR SWEEPS SOUTHWARD AND CLOUDS THICKEN AHEAD OF
THE STORM. ALTHOUGH SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE NOT FALLEN MUCH
OVERNIGHT...LOWER DEWPOINTS HAVE BEEN STEADILY ADVECTING SOUTHWARD
ALONG WITH COLDER AIR ALOFT. AS A RESULT...EVAPORATIVE COOLING
WITH PRECIPITATION THIS AFTERNOON AND THE CONTINUED DYNAMICAL
COOLING WILL QUICKLY ERASE THE WARM BOUNDARY LAYER AND ALLOW FOR
SNOW THIS AFTERNOON. THE HEAVY SNOW PERIOD IS STILL PROGGED TO BE
LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH SNOW RATES
OVER AN INCH AN HOUR AT TIMES AND WINDS GUSTING TOWARDS 35 MPH
LATER TONIGHT AS WINDS START TURNING NW. THIS WILL CAUSE DRIFTING
ISSUES...ESPECIALLY FURTHER NORTH WHERE THE SNOW WILL NOT BE AS
HEAVY.

THE BIG CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS CYCLE RESULTED IN A SLIGHT
NORTHERN TURN TO THE STORM TRACK TO NORTH OF YARMOUTH IN NOVA
SCOTIA. THIS HAD TWO EFFECTS. FIRST...THE WINTER STORM WARNING WAS
EXTENDED NORTHWARD TO INCLUDE ALL OF PISCATAQUIS COUNTY AS WELL AS
NORTHEASTERN AROOSTOOK WHERE BETTER SNOW RATIOS ARE ANTICIPATED.
SECOND...THE MORE NORTHERN TRACK MEANS MORE WARM AIR ALONG IN
COASTAL HANCOCK AND WASHINGTON COUNTIES LATER THIS EVENING. IN
THESE LOCATIONS...EXPECT SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE TRADED FOR
SLEET ACCUMULATION IN A RATHER NARROW SWATH FROM ELLSWORTH TO
CALAIS. ALONG THIS CORRIDOR...A HALF INCH OF SLEET ACCUMULATION IS
POSSIBLE AND MAYBE MORE TOWARDS CALAIS. SOME FREEZING RAIN MAY MIX
IN AT TIMES TOO IN THIS REGION BUT THE WARM LAYER LOOKS TO BE MORE
A SLEET PRODUCER THAN FREEZING RAIN. NONETHELESS...WIND GUSTS OF
NEARLY 50 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT WILL MAKE POWER OUTAGES A CONCERN FOR
BANGOR AND DOWN EAST.
&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE SNOW STORM WILL BE WINDING DOWN QUICKLY FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS
THE CWA THU MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE OVER NOVA SCOTIA AT 12Z THU
LIFTS UP TO NEWFOUNDLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD TOWARD THE EASTERN SEABOARD FRIDAY. THE WIND WILL DIMINISH
PRETTY QUICKLY BY MID AFTERNOON THU AND WILL BECOME LIGHT THU
EVENING SO NO SIGNIFICANT ISSUES WITH BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW
EXPECTED AFTER THE SNOW COMES TO AN END. MAINLY DRY AND COLD
WEATHER EXPECTED THU NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE
TEENS AND HIGHS FRIDAY FROM THE MID 20S ACROSS THE CROWN OF MAINE
TO NEAR 30 ALONG THE COAST. A MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CROSS
THE AREA FRI AND IT COULD TOUCH OFF A FEW SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE
WESTERN MOUNTAINS AND ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE FROM THE KATAHDIN
REGION NORTH.
&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DRY AND COLD FRI NIGHT AND SAT AS HIGH PRESSURE TO SLOWLY SLIDE
EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC SAT. A CLIPPER FROM THE MIDWEST IS
EXPECTED TO LIFT TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT ALTHOUGH
THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS AND FROM
RUN TO RUN OF THE VARIOUS MODELS. THERE COULD BE A BIT OF
OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF THE LOW ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE
LATE SAT NIGHT AND SUN. WHAT LOOKS MORE CERTAIN IS THAT THIS LOW
WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A STRONG COLD FRONT MON WITH A SHOT OF VERY
COLD AIR FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE REGION. THE AIR MASS BY TUE MORNING LOOKS TO BE THE COLDEST SO
FAR THIS WINTER. AS THE HIGH WILL STILL BE WELL WEST OF THE AREA
MON NIGHT THERE WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO BE SOME WIND AND
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT GET AS COLD AS THE AIR MASS WOULD SUPPORT.
ALTHOUGH THE AIR MASS ALOFT BEGINS TO MODERATE TUE NIGHT THERE IS
A BETTER CHANCE THAT THIS WILL BE THE COLDEST NIGHT AS THE HIGH
SETTLES OVER THE REGION. MODERATION OF THE AIR MASS IS THEN
EXPECTED WED AS THE HIGH RETREATS TO THE EAST AND A MILDER RETURN
FLOW SETS UP.
&&

.AVIATION /11Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS IS POSSIBLE FROM PQI NORTHWARD
THIS MORNING AS A COLD FRONT SWINGS SOUTHWARD. OTHERWISE...IFR
BREAKS OUT FOR BGR AND BHB EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND SPREADS
STEADILY NORTH TO FVE BY EVENING. 1/4SM VIS IS EXPECTED FOR BGR
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LIFR CONDITIONS WILL AFFECT ALL
SITES TONIGHT. FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET ARE EXPECTED LATER THIS
EVENING AT BHB. WINDS AT FL020 WILL APPROACH 50 TO 60 KTS THIS
EVENING AT BHB AND BGR WITH LLWS A STRONG THREAT.

SHORT TERM: IFR IN SNOW EARLY THU WILL GIVE WAY TO VFR BY THU
AFTERNOON AS THE SNOW ENDS AND CLEARING FOLLOWS. VFR EXPECTED THU
NIGHT THROUGH SAT. POTENTIAL FOR VFR OR IFR SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY SO
AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: EXTENDED THE GALE FROM 7PM TO 7AM. VERY STRONG
NORTHEAST WINDS APPROACHING STORM FORCE WILL AFFECT THE WATERS
DURING THE EVENING. HAVE COVERED WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 50 KTS...BUT
AN UPGRADE TO STORM WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED. WINDS WILL DIMINISH
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE LOW PASSES...BUT INCREASE FROM THE NW LATER
IN THE NIGHT.

SHORT TERM: GALES EARLY THURSDAY WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE TRANSITIONED
TO A SCA BY MIDDAY THU AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY FROM THE WATERS. THE
WIND SHOULD DIMINISH AND THE SEAS SUBSIDE TO BELOW SCA LEVELS THU
NIGHT. ANOTHER SCA WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED BY LATE SAT AHEAD OF THE
NEXT SYSTEM THAT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR MEZ002-004.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR MEZ001-003.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
     MEZ005-006-010-011-015>017-029>032.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ050>052.
&&
$$

NEAR TERM...MCW
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM...CB
AVIATION...MCW/CB
MARINE...MCW/CB



000
FXUS61 KCAR 260919
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
419 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE IN THE EASTERN CAROLINAS THIS MORNING WILL PASS NEAR
CAPE COD TONIGHT...AND MOVE INTO NOVA SCOTIA ON THANKSGIVING DAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE EASTERN SEABOARD FRIDAY...AND
MOVE EAST OF THE AREA SATURDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY THIS MORNING AND
SWEEP SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. THE FRONT
MAY SET OFF A FEW FLURRIES IN ALONG THE NORTHERN BORDER.
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT RISE TOO MUCH FROM READINGS EARLY THIS
MORNING AS COLDER AIR SWEEPS SOUTHWARD AND CLOUDS THICKEN AHEAD OF
THE STORM. ALTHOUGH SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE NOT FALLEN MUCH
OVERNIGHT...LOWER DEWPOINTS HAVE BEEN STEADILY ADVECTING SOUTHWARD
ALONG WITH COLDER AIR ALOFT. AS A RESULT...EVAPORATIVE COOLING
WITH PRECIPITATION THIS AFTERNOON AND THE CONTINUED DYNAMICAL
COOLING WILL QUICKLY ERASE THE WARM BOUNDARY LAYER AND ALLOW FOR
SNOW THIS AFTERNOON. THE HEAVY SNOW PERIOD IS STILL PROGGED TO BE
LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH SNOW RATES
OVER AN INCH AN HOUR AT TIMES AND WINDS GUSTING TOWARDS 35 MPH
LATER TONIGHT AS WINDS START TURNING NW. THIS WILL CAUSE DRIFTING
ISSUES...ESPECIALLY FURTHER NORTH WHERE THE SNOW WILL NOT BE AS
HEAVY.

THE BIG CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS CYCLE RESULTED IN A SLIGHT
NORTHERN TURN TO THE STORM TRACK TO NORTH OF YARMOUTH IN NOVA
SCOTIA. THIS HAD TWO EFFECTS. FIRST...THE WINTER STORM WARNING WAS
EXTENDED NORTHWARD TO INCLUDE ALL OF PISCATAQUIS COUNTY AS WELL AS
NORTHEASTERN AROOSTOOK WHERE BETTER SNOW RATIOS ARE ANTICIPATED.
SECOND...THE MORE NORTHERN TRACK MEANS MORE WARM AIR ALONG IN
COASTAL HANCOCK AND WASHINGTON COUNTIES LATER THIS EVENING. IN
THESE LOCATIONS...EXPECT SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE TRADED FOR
SLEET ACCUMULATION IN A RATHER NARROW SWATH FROM ELLSWORTH TO
CALAIS. ALONG THIS CORRIDOR...A HALF INCH OF SLEET ACCUMULATION IS
POSSIBLE AND MAYBE MORE TOWARDS CALAIS. SOME FREEZING RAIN MAY MIX
IN AT TIMES TOO IN THIS REGION BUT THE WARM LAYER LOOKS TO BE MORE
A SLEET PRODUCER THAN FREEZING RAIN. NONETHELESS...WIND GUSTS OF
NEARLY 50 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT WILL MAKE POWER OUTAGES A CONCERN FOR
BANGOR AND DOWN EAST.
&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE SNOW STORM WILL BE WINDING DOWN QUICKLY FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS
THE CWA THU MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE OVER NOVA SCOTIA AT 12Z THU
LIFTS UP TO NEWFOUNDLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD TOWARD THE EASTERN SEABOARD FRIDAY. THE WIND WILL DIMINISH
PRETTY QUICKLY BY MID AFTERNOON THU AND WILL BECOME LIGHT THU
EVENING SO NO SIGNIFICANT ISSUES WITH BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW
EXPECTED AFTER THE SNOW COMES TO AN END. MAINLY DRY AND COLD
WEATHER EXPECTED THU NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE
TEENS AND HIGHS FRIDAY FROM THE MID 20S ACROSS THE CROWN OF MAINE
TO NEAR 30 ALONG THE COAST. A MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CROSS
THE AREA FRI AND IT COULD TOUCH OFF A FEW SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE
WESTERN MOUNTAINS AND ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE FROM THE KATAHDIN
REGION NORTH.
&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DRY AND COLD FRI NIGHT AND SAT AS HIGH PRESSURE TO SLOWLY SLIDE
EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC SAT. A CLIPPER FROM THE MIDWEST IS
EXPECTED TO LIFT TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT ALTHOUGH
THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS AND FROM
RUN TO RUN OF THE VARIOUS MODELS. THERE COULD BE A BIT OF
OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF THE LOW ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE
LATE SAT NIGHT AND SUN. WHAT LOOKS MORE CERTAIN IS THAT THIS LOW
WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A STRONG COLD FRONT MON WITH A SHOT OF VERY
COLD AIR FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE REGION. THE AIR MASS BY TUE MORNING LOOKS TO BE THE COLDEST SO
FAR THIS WINTER. AS THE HIGH WILL STILL BE WELL WEST OF THE AREA
MON NIGHT THERE WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO BE SOME WIND AND
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT GET AS COLD AS THE AIR MASS WOULD SUPPORT.
ALTHOUGH THE AIR MASS ALOFT BEGINS TO MODERATE TUE NIGHT THERE IS
A BETTER CHANCE THAT THIS WILL BE THE COLDEST NIGHT AS THE HIGH
SETTLES OVER THE REGION. MODERATION OF THE AIR MASS IS THEN
EXPECTED WED AS THE HIGH RETREATS TO THE EAST AND A MILDER RETURN
FLOW SETS UP.
&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS IS POSSIBLE FROM PQI NORTHWARD
THIS MORNING AS A COLD FRONT SWINGS SOUTHWARD. OTHERWISE...IFR
BREAKS OUT FOR BGR AND BHB EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND SPREADS
STEADILY NORTH TO FVE BY EVENING. 1/4SM VIS IS EXPECTED FOR BGR
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LIFR CONDITIONS WILL AFFECT ALL
SITES TONIGHT. FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET ARE EXPECTED LATER THIS
EVENING AT BHB. WINDS AT FL020 WILL APPROACH 50 TO 60 KTS THIS
EVENING AT BHB AND BGR WITH LLWS A STRONG THREAT.

SHORT TERM: IFR IN SNOW EARLY THU WILL GIVE WAY TO VFR BY THU
AFTERNOON AS THE SNOW ENDS AND CLEARING FOLLOWS. VFR EXPECTED THU
NIGHT THROUGH SAT. POTENTIAL FOR VFR OR IFR SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY SO
AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: EXTENDED THE GALE FROM 7PM TO 7AM. VERY STRONG
NORTHEAST WINDS APPROACHING STORM FORCE WILL AFFECT THE WATERS
DURING THE EVENING. HAVE COVERED WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 50 KTS...BUT
AN UPGRADE TO STORM WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED. WINDS WILL DIMINISH
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE LOW PASSES...BUT INCREASE FROM THE NW LATER
IN THE NIGHT.

SHORT TERM: GALES EARLY THURSDAY WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE TRANSITIONED
TO A SCA BY MIDDAY THU AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY FROM THE WATERS. THE
WIND SHOULD DIMINISH AND THE SEAS SUBSIDE TO BELOW SCA LEVELS THU
NIGHT. ANOTHER SCA WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED BY LATE SAT AHEAD OF THE
NEXT SYSTEM THAT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR MEZ002-004.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR MEZ001-003.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
     MEZ005-006-010-011-015>017-029>032.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ050>052.
&&
$$

NEAR TERM...MCW
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM...CB
AVIATION...MCW/CB
MARINE...MCW/CB




000
FXUS61 KGYX 260906
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
406 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TODAY AND
TRACK NORTHEAST TO JUST SOUTH OF CAPE COD BY WEDNESDAY
EVENING....BRINGING A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. THE COASTAL LOW WILL CONTINUE NORTHEAST INTO THE
MARITIMES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM
THE WEST ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE FLOW SHIFTS TO THE SOUTHWEST
SUNDAY WITH A WARM UP EXPECTED. ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS WE CLOSE IN ON THE STORM MORE AND MORE MESOSCALE DETAILS HAVE
EMERGED, AND HAVE ENHANCED OUR EXISTING FORECAST WITH THESE
DETAILS... HOWEVER THE BROAD PICTURE HAS NOT CHANGED.

 ** A MAJOR WINTER STORM WILL IMPACT NH AND ME THROUGH WEDNESDAY
  AFTERNOON SIGNIFICANTLY HAMPERING TRAVEL**

AT 09Z THE LOW WAS CENTERED JUST OFF THE CAROLINA COAST AND WILL
TRACK RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. TRACK FORECASTS
HAVE COME INTO GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE LOW TO PASS JUST NORTHWEST
OF THE 70W/40N BENCHMARK AROUND 03Z THURSDAY.

THERE ARE TWO MAIN AREAS OF CHANGE FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. THE
FIRST IS THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE HEAVY SNOW. QPF AMOUNTS HAVE
INCREASED IN PRETTY MUCH ALL FORMS OF GUIDANCE... COMBINED WITH
COLD TEMPS AND IDEAL SNOW GROWTH THIS HAS RESULTED IN AN INCREASE
OF SNOWFALL FOR THE NORTHERN MOST ZONES... AND HAVE UPGRADED TO A
WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE WHOLE CWA. SOME POCKETS OF THE UPPER
CT VALLEY MAY REMAIN MARGINAL IN TERMS OF SNOW TOTALS... BUT FEEL
THE MAJORITY OF THE ZONE WILL MEET CRITERIA.

THE OTHER CHANGE... AND OF GREATER CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
BANDING... RESULTING IN VERY HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES. VERY STRONG
BANDING SIGNATURE WITH 700MB FRONTOGENESIS CONCENTRATED IN A LINE
EXTENDING FROM KEENE NH PARALLEL TO THE GULF OF MAINE UP THROUGH
TO CALAIS ME. THIS PAIRS UP NICELY WITH A LAYER OF INSTABILITY
EXTENDING FROM 700 TO 500MB... SETTING US UP FOR A CLASSIC
NORTHWEST SECTOR BAND AS THE LOW PASSES FROM SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND
NORTHEASTWARDS TOWARDS THE BENCHMARK FROM 00Z-06Z TOMORROW. AT
THIS POINT THIS SAME SIGNATURE IS EVIDENT IN ALL THE MAJOR
GUIDANCE GFS/NAM/ECMWF/CMC ... GIVING FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE OF
THE FORMATION OF THE BAND. THE NATURE OF THE BEAST IS THAT THE
EXACT LOCATION MAY SHIFT SLIGHTLY NORTH OR SOUTH.. GIVING VERY
DIFFERENT SNOWFALL TOTALS WITHIN A FEW MILES BUT FEEL THERE WILL
BE PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL PLANE IMPACTED BY THIS FEATURE BETWEEN
00Z AND 06Z. SNOW TOTALS HAVE INCREASED SLIGHTLY THROUGH THIS AREA
TO REFLECT THIS BANDING POTENTIAL.

**THIS BANDING WILL RESULT IN SNOWFALL RATES OF 1-3"/HR THROUGH
 THE MOST INTENSE PARTS OF THE BAND.** IN NEW HAMPSHIRE... THE
 CORRIDOR FROM CONCORD TO MANCHESTER WILL SEE HEAVY SNOW STARTING
 AROUND 21Z AS THE BAND PUSHES NORTHWARDS. BETWEEN 00Z AND 03Z IT
 SETS UP NICELY PARALLEL TO THE COAST THROUGH THE ENTIRE COASTAL
 PLANE... IMPACTING ALL NORTH SOUTH TRAVEL ROUTES IN THE CWA.
 OVERALL THE QUICK MOVING NATURE OF THE SYSTEM WILL HELP AS MOST
 AREAS WILL SEE THE MOST INTENSE SNOWFALL RATES LIMITED TO AROUND
 3HRS. AN EXCEPTION TO THIS IS THE LEWISTON TO AUGUSTA REGION...
 WHERE THE BAND MAY PIVOT AS THE LOW TURNS MORE NORTHWARD KEEPING THE
 I-95 CORRIDOR OF SOUTHWEST MAINE UNDER THE HEAVY SNOW A BIT
 LONGER.

ONCE AGAIN...THE CONDITIONS WILL BE QUICKLY DETERIORATING AND
EXPECTED TO BE THE WORST WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING...COINCIDING
WITH THE BUSIEST TRAVEL TIMES. TRAVELERS SHOULD BE AT THEIR
DESTINATIONS BY WED AFTERNOON IF AT ALL POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
THE STORM WILL RAPIDLY EXIT THE AREA ON THANKSGIVING DAY.. WITH
SNOW CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST IN THE MORNING AND MINIMAL
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION AFTER DAY BREAK.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR FREEZING AND DROP OFF THROUGH THE
DAY AS COLD AIR ALOFT PUSHES INTO THE REGION.


&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HEMISPHERIC 500MB PATTERN REMAINS ON THE UNSTABLE SIDE AS SMALL
SCALE BLOCKS SET UP AND BREAK DOWN EVERY COUPLE OF DAYS...ALTHOUGH
OVERALL TREND IS STILL TOWARD A +PNA PATTERN...BUT WITHOUT
SIGNIFICANT AMPLIFICATION...WHICH MEANS MORE IN THE WAY OF A
TROUGH ACROSS ACROSS CENTRAL AND ERN NOAM. SO...ALTHOUGH IT WILL
BE SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED WITH FLUCTUATING TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD...NO
SIGNIFICANT SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED.

IT STARTS OUT COLD THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS SFC RIDGE BUILDS IN
FROM THE SW. MODELS SUGGESTING POSSIBLE INVERTED TROUGH THU
NIGHT...ALTHOUGH STRENGTH AND LOCATION VARY FROM MODEL TO MODEL.
WILL HAVE TO WATCH FUTURE MODELS RUNS TO SEE IF THIS SYSTEM WILL
SPREAD ANY LIGHT SNOW INTO COASTAL SECTIONS. THE HIGHS SHOULD
BUILD IN FOR FRI AND FRI NIGHT...WITH MAXES FRI AND SAT GENERALLY
IN THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30 IN THE N AND 30S ELSEWHERE.

SW FLOW SETS UP FOR SAT NIGHT INTO MON WITH BROAD WAA PATTERN
ALOFT...WHICH WILL WARM THINGS UP A BIT...BUT SHOULD ALSO PRODUCE
A FAIR AMT OF MID-HIGH CLOUDS...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S AND
40S BOTH SUN AND MON. ANOTHER WEAK WAVE AT 500MB TRACKS THRU LATE
MONDAY AND DRAGS A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION...WITH A THREAT
FOR SHRA/SHSN. IT COOL DOWN AGAIN FOR TUE...BUT WARMER AIR
RETURNS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.



&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THRU EARLY WED. CONDITIONS
RAPIDLY DETERIORATE FROM S TO N THRU WED AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS
WILL QUICKLY DROP TO IFR AND LOWER BY EVENING. COULD SEE SOME
BRIEF MIXING WITH RA AT KPSM AND KPWM...BEFORE A TRANSITION TO ALL
SNWFL. WINDS ALONG THE COAST WILL BE GUSTY FROM THE NNE...AROUND
25-30 KTS. CONDITIONS QUICKLY IMPROVE TO MVFR OR VFR THU AS LOW
PRES PULLS AWAY.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR THU NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. COASTAL
TERMINALS...ESPECIALLY KPWM/KPSM...HAVE A SLIGHT CHC FOR SOME IFR
IN LIGHT SNOW THU NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...GALE WARNINGS IN EFFECT STARTING WED AFTERNOON.
COASTAL STORM WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE GULF OF ME...WITH A
BRIEF PERIOD OF GALE FORCE GUSTS. SCA WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED
FOLLOWING THE LOW PRES.

LONG TERM...GENERALLY QUIET WITH SUB-SCA CONDS ON THE WATERS THU
NIGHT INTO SAT. SCA MAY BE NEEDED FOR INCREASING SW FLOW ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR MEZ012>014-018>028.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR MEZ007>009.
NH...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR NHZ002>010-013-014.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR NHZ001.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CURTIS
SHORT TERM...CURTIS
LONG TERM...CEMPA
AVIATION...CEMPA/CURTIS
MARINE...CEMPA/CURTIS



000
FXUS61 KGYX 260906
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
406 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TODAY AND
TRACK NORTHEAST TO JUST SOUTH OF CAPE COD BY WEDNESDAY
EVENING....BRINGING A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. THE COASTAL LOW WILL CONTINUE NORTHEAST INTO THE
MARITIMES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM
THE WEST ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE FLOW SHIFTS TO THE SOUTHWEST
SUNDAY WITH A WARM UP EXPECTED. ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS WE CLOSE IN ON THE STORM MORE AND MORE MESOSCALE DETAILS HAVE
EMERGED, AND HAVE ENHANCED OUR EXISTING FORECAST WITH THESE
DETAILS... HOWEVER THE BROAD PICTURE HAS NOT CHANGED.

 ** A MAJOR WINTER STORM WILL IMPACT NH AND ME THROUGH WEDNESDAY
  AFTERNOON SIGNIFICANTLY HAMPERING TRAVEL**

AT 09Z THE LOW WAS CENTERED JUST OFF THE CAROLINA COAST AND WILL
TRACK RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. TRACK FORECASTS
HAVE COME INTO GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE LOW TO PASS JUST NORTHWEST
OF THE 70W/40N BENCHMARK AROUND 03Z THURSDAY.

THERE ARE TWO MAIN AREAS OF CHANGE FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. THE
FIRST IS THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE HEAVY SNOW. QPF AMOUNTS HAVE
INCREASED IN PRETTY MUCH ALL FORMS OF GUIDANCE... COMBINED WITH
COLD TEMPS AND IDEAL SNOW GROWTH THIS HAS RESULTED IN AN INCREASE
OF SNOWFALL FOR THE NORTHERN MOST ZONES... AND HAVE UPGRADED TO A
WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE WHOLE CWA. SOME POCKETS OF THE UPPER
CT VALLEY MAY REMAIN MARGINAL IN TERMS OF SNOW TOTALS... BUT FEEL
THE MAJORITY OF THE ZONE WILL MEET CRITERIA.

THE OTHER CHANGE... AND OF GREATER CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
BANDING... RESULTING IN VERY HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES. VERY STRONG
BANDING SIGNATURE WITH 700MB FRONTOGENESIS CONCENTRATED IN A LINE
EXTENDING FROM KEENE NH PARALLEL TO THE GULF OF MAINE UP THROUGH
TO CALAIS ME. THIS PAIRS UP NICELY WITH A LAYER OF INSTABILITY
EXTENDING FROM 700 TO 500MB... SETTING US UP FOR A CLASSIC
NORTHWEST SECTOR BAND AS THE LOW PASSES FROM SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND
NORTHEASTWARDS TOWARDS THE BENCHMARK FROM 00Z-06Z TOMORROW. AT
THIS POINT THIS SAME SIGNATURE IS EVIDENT IN ALL THE MAJOR
GUIDANCE GFS/NAM/ECMWF/CMC ... GIVING FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE OF
THE FORMATION OF THE BAND. THE NATURE OF THE BEAST IS THAT THE
EXACT LOCATION MAY SHIFT SLIGHTLY NORTH OR SOUTH.. GIVING VERY
DIFFERENT SNOWFALL TOTALS WITHIN A FEW MILES BUT FEEL THERE WILL
BE PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL PLANE IMPACTED BY THIS FEATURE BETWEEN
00Z AND 06Z. SNOW TOTALS HAVE INCREASED SLIGHTLY THROUGH THIS AREA
TO REFLECT THIS BANDING POTENTIAL.

**THIS BANDING WILL RESULT IN SNOWFALL RATES OF 1-3"/HR THROUGH
 THE MOST INTENSE PARTS OF THE BAND.** IN NEW HAMPSHIRE... THE
 CORRIDOR FROM CONCORD TO MANCHESTER WILL SEE HEAVY SNOW STARTING
 AROUND 21Z AS THE BAND PUSHES NORTHWARDS. BETWEEN 00Z AND 03Z IT
 SETS UP NICELY PARALLEL TO THE COAST THROUGH THE ENTIRE COASTAL
 PLANE... IMPACTING ALL NORTH SOUTH TRAVEL ROUTES IN THE CWA.
 OVERALL THE QUICK MOVING NATURE OF THE SYSTEM WILL HELP AS MOST
 AREAS WILL SEE THE MOST INTENSE SNOWFALL RATES LIMITED TO AROUND
 3HRS. AN EXCEPTION TO THIS IS THE LEWISTON TO AUGUSTA REGION...
 WHERE THE BAND MAY PIVOT AS THE LOW TURNS MORE NORTHWARD KEEPING THE
 I-95 CORRIDOR OF SOUTHWEST MAINE UNDER THE HEAVY SNOW A BIT
 LONGER.

ONCE AGAIN...THE CONDITIONS WILL BE QUICKLY DETERIORATING AND
EXPECTED TO BE THE WORST WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING...COINCIDING
WITH THE BUSIEST TRAVEL TIMES. TRAVELERS SHOULD BE AT THEIR
DESTINATIONS BY WED AFTERNOON IF AT ALL POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
THE STORM WILL RAPIDLY EXIT THE AREA ON THANKSGIVING DAY.. WITH
SNOW CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST IN THE MORNING AND MINIMAL
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION AFTER DAY BREAK.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR FREEZING AND DROP OFF THROUGH THE
DAY AS COLD AIR ALOFT PUSHES INTO THE REGION.


&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HEMISPHERIC 500MB PATTERN REMAINS ON THE UNSTABLE SIDE AS SMALL
SCALE BLOCKS SET UP AND BREAK DOWN EVERY COUPLE OF DAYS...ALTHOUGH
OVERALL TREND IS STILL TOWARD A +PNA PATTERN...BUT WITHOUT
SIGNIFICANT AMPLIFICATION...WHICH MEANS MORE IN THE WAY OF A
TROUGH ACROSS ACROSS CENTRAL AND ERN NOAM. SO...ALTHOUGH IT WILL
BE SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED WITH FLUCTUATING TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD...NO
SIGNIFICANT SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED.

IT STARTS OUT COLD THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS SFC RIDGE BUILDS IN
FROM THE SW. MODELS SUGGESTING POSSIBLE INVERTED TROUGH THU
NIGHT...ALTHOUGH STRENGTH AND LOCATION VARY FROM MODEL TO MODEL.
WILL HAVE TO WATCH FUTURE MODELS RUNS TO SEE IF THIS SYSTEM WILL
SPREAD ANY LIGHT SNOW INTO COASTAL SECTIONS. THE HIGHS SHOULD
BUILD IN FOR FRI AND FRI NIGHT...WITH MAXES FRI AND SAT GENERALLY
IN THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30 IN THE N AND 30S ELSEWHERE.

SW FLOW SETS UP FOR SAT NIGHT INTO MON WITH BROAD WAA PATTERN
ALOFT...WHICH WILL WARM THINGS UP A BIT...BUT SHOULD ALSO PRODUCE
A FAIR AMT OF MID-HIGH CLOUDS...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S AND
40S BOTH SUN AND MON. ANOTHER WEAK WAVE AT 500MB TRACKS THRU LATE
MONDAY AND DRAGS A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION...WITH A THREAT
FOR SHRA/SHSN. IT COOL DOWN AGAIN FOR TUE...BUT WARMER AIR
RETURNS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.



&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THRU EARLY WED. CONDITIONS
RAPIDLY DETERIORATE FROM S TO N THRU WED AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS
WILL QUICKLY DROP TO IFR AND LOWER BY EVENING. COULD SEE SOME
BRIEF MIXING WITH RA AT KPSM AND KPWM...BEFORE A TRANSITION TO ALL
SNWFL. WINDS ALONG THE COAST WILL BE GUSTY FROM THE NNE...AROUND
25-30 KTS. CONDITIONS QUICKLY IMPROVE TO MVFR OR VFR THU AS LOW
PRES PULLS AWAY.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR THU NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. COASTAL
TERMINALS...ESPECIALLY KPWM/KPSM...HAVE A SLIGHT CHC FOR SOME IFR
IN LIGHT SNOW THU NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...GALE WARNINGS IN EFFECT STARTING WED AFTERNOON.
COASTAL STORM WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE GULF OF ME...WITH A
BRIEF PERIOD OF GALE FORCE GUSTS. SCA WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED
FOLLOWING THE LOW PRES.

LONG TERM...GENERALLY QUIET WITH SUB-SCA CONDS ON THE WATERS THU
NIGHT INTO SAT. SCA MAY BE NEEDED FOR INCREASING SW FLOW ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR MEZ012>014-018>028.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR MEZ007>009.
NH...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR NHZ002>010-013-014.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR NHZ001.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CURTIS
SHORT TERM...CURTIS
LONG TERM...CEMPA
AVIATION...CEMPA/CURTIS
MARINE...CEMPA/CURTIS




000
FXUS61 KCAR 260542
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1242 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE
WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST OF THE GULF OF MAINE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THEN
EXIT ACROSS THE MARITIMES THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST
FRIDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1245 AM UPDATE...
WILL HAVE TO ADJUST MIN TEMPERATURES WITH NEXT UPDATE. A COLD
FRONT IN QUEBEC WILL ARRIVE IN NORTHERN AROOSTOOK THIS MORNING AND
TEMPERATURES WILL STAY UP AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THIS COLD AIR WILL
ARRIVE IN TIME FOR THE STORM AND WILL BE DRAWN SOUTHWARD DURING
THE MORNING AS THE STORM INTENSIFIES OFF THE DELMARVA COAST. THE
QUESTIONS FOR THE NEXT UPDATE WILL BE WHETHER TO EXTEND WARNINGS
FURTHER NORTH AND HOW MUCH SLEET WILL IMPACT TOTALS IN COASTAL
HANCOCK AND WASHINGTON COUNTIES. TIMING CONTINUES TO LOOK GOOD FOR
EARLY AFTERNOON ONSET IN BANGOR AND DOWN EAST. SNOWFALL WILL
BECOME HEAVIER LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND SPREAD NORTHWARD DURING
THE EVENING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY.
INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
TOWARD THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MAINE WEDNESDAY. CLOUD COVER WILL
INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY. PRECIPITATION WILL
THEN EXPAND NORTHWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS
PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW. BASED ON CRITICAL
THICKNESSES AND BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES PRECIPITATION WILL
INITIALLY DEVELOP IN THE FORM OF RAIN OR MIXED RAIN/SNOW ACROSS
CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS...WITH PRECIPITATION TRANSITIONING TO
MOSTLY SNOW THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS WILL BE AROUND AN
INCH OR LESS. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT STARTING
WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN AND NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA...WITH WINTER STORM WARNINGS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST AREA. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE
MID TO UPPER 20S NORTH...TO THE LOWER TO MID 30S DOWNEAST. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 30S
NORTH...TO THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 DOWNEAST.
&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON THE SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODELS HAVE COME INTO
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT. HEAVIEST PERIOD OF SNOW WILL BE DURING THE
EVENING, BUT EVEN THEN, THIS IS NOT A PARTICULARLY INTENSE SYSTEM
AND SNOWFALL RATES SHOULDN`T BE MUCH MORE THAN ONE INCH PER HOUR
AT MOST. HOWEVER, IT IS HIGH IMPACT BECAUSE OF IT OCCURRING
DURING SUCH A HEAVY TRAVEL TIME.

PRECIPITATION TYPE SHOULD BE ALL SNOW FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SNOW
RATIOS WON`T BE THAT GREAT THOUGH, RANGING FROM AROUND 8 TO 1
ALONG THE COAST TO 13 TO 1 FURTHER INLAND. PART OF THE REASON FOR
THE POOR SNOW RATIOS IS FAIRLY WARM AIR ALOFT ALOFT. THE AIR
SHOULDN`T BE WARM ENOUGH FOR FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET PROBLEMS, BUT
IT ALSO WON`T BE GREAT FOR SNOWFLAKE GROWTH IN THE AREAS WITH THE
HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION (DOWNEAST).

SNOW TAPERS OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THURSDAY MORNING. MODELS HAVE
SPED UP THE END OF THE STORM JUST A TOUCH. TRAVEL MIDDAY THURSDAY
INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY EASIER THAN THURSDAY
MORNING.

COLDER AIR MOVES IN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. NOTHING MORE THAN A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY.
&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA...A
SURFACE HIGH WILL BE BUILDING INTO AREA. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL MOVE EAST OF MAINE AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. A NEW LOW OVER
LAKE SUPERIOR...AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONT EXTENDING EAST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. BY SAT MRNG THE NEW LOW MOVES EAST TO NRN
LAKE MICHIGAN...THE WARM FRONT MOVES EAST TO VT/NH. BY MID DAY
SAT...THE GFS MOVES THE WARM FRONT INTO WRN ME...THE ECMWF SLOWS
THE EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE WARM FRONT KEEPING IT OVER NH. BY SAT
EVNG...THE GFS MOVES THE LOW JUST NW OF QUEBEC CITY AND THE WARM
FRONT TO ERN ME...THE ECMWF MOVES THE LOW TO JAMES BAY AND MOVES
THE WARM FRONT INTO WRN ME. THE GFS AND ECMWF WILL REMAIN OUT OF
FAZE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH THE ECMWF LAGGING 6 TO 12
HRS BEHIND THE GFS. EARLY SUN MRNG THE GFS SHOWS A LOW OVER LAKE
ONTARIO...ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA. SUN MRNG THE WARM FRONT MOVES INTO SW ME. BY MON MRNG BOTH
THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THIS SYSTEM HAS MOVED EAST OF THE AREA.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER TROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD.

LOADED THE SUPERBLEND THROUGH THE PERIOD...ADDED 15 PERCENT TO
WINDS FOR GUST OVER LAND 30 PERCENT FOR WINDS OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS.
&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. CONDITIONS WILL THEN LOWER TO MVFR/IFR
LEVELS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

SHORT AND LONG TERM...IFR OR LOWER AREAWIDE IN SNOW WEDNESDAY
NIGHT, IMPROVING TO VFR BY MIDDAY THURSDAY. GENERALLY VFR THURSDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR ON THE
WATERS TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. VISIBILITIES WILL LOWER IN
DEVELOPING RAIN WEDNESDAY.

SHORT TERM: ISSUED GALE WARNING FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR STRONG
NORTHERLY WINDS. THE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DIMINISH DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY, AS WILL THE SEAS.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 AM EST THURSDAY
     FOR MEZ001>004-010.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
     MEZ005-006-011-015>017-029>032.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ050>052.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HEWITT/MCW
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...HEWITT/MCW/
MARINE...HEWITT/MCW/




000
FXUS61 KGYX 260511
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1211 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST ON WEDNESDAY AND TRACK NORTHEAST TO JUST SOUTH OF CAPE COD
BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE COASTAL LOW WILL CONTINUE NORTHEAST INTO
THE MARITIMES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
LINGER OVER THE REGION ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY. A WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO THE REGION FROM
THE SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON
SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
MIDNIGHT UPDATE: ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES... STILL WELL ABOVE
FREEZING IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH PWM AND BML WITHIN 3 DEGREES, NOT
SEEING THE TYPICAL NORTH SOUTH GRADIENT. DEWPOINTS ARE TRACKING AS
EXPECTED AND ALREADY HAVE THE DRY AIR NEEDED FOR WET BULBING THE
INITIAL PRECIP OVER TO SNOW TOMORROW.  WILL BE DIGGING DEEP INTO
THE UPCOMING STORM...ONE CONCERN IS THE AMOUNT OF QPF THROUGH THE
NORTHERN ZONES... WHICH IS SHOWING AN UPTICK... COMBINED WITH THE
FLUFF FACTOR THERE MAY NEED TO BE SOME HEADLINE CHANGES BUT WILL
WAIT TO GET A GOOD LOOK AT THE OPTIONS.

PREV DISC: NOT MUCH TO TALK ABOUT TONIGHT...AS FOCUS REMAINS ON
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY BE ON THE INCREASE
TONIGHT AS A COLD FNT CONTINUES TO OOZE SWD. WILL SEE LITTLE TEMP
ADVECTION WITH THIS FEATURE...BUT IMPORTANTLY FOR WED WE WILL SEE
DEW POINT ADVECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
***SIGNIFICANT COASTAL STORM TO AFFECT HOLIDAY TRAVEL***

MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOW IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON STORM TRACK...WITH
THE ECMWF...GFS...AND NAM...ALL MOVING JUST SLIGHTLY NW OF THE
40N/70W BENCHMARK. THE CMC REMAINS THE ERN OUTLIER...SO HAVE
TROUBLE PUTTING MUCH STOCK IN ITS OUTPUT ATTM.

THIS LEADS TO A FAIRLY CONSISTENT QPF FORECAST AS WELL. THE GFS
AND ECMWF ARE CLOSE TO OR JUST OVER 1 INCH LIQUID FOR COASTAL SWRN
ME. IF YOU TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE KNOWN BIAS FOR THE NAM TO GIVE
TOO MUCH QPF ON THE COLD SIDE OF LOW PRES SYSTEMS...AND TAKE 2/3
OF ITS QPF...YOU ALSO GET JUST OVER 1 INCH QPF FOR THOSE SAME
AREAS. DIFFERENCES ARISE THE FARTHER NW ONE HEADS FROM THE COAST.
FOR THIS REASON THERE REMAINS A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE MTNS ON
AMOUNTS.

PCPN HAS SPED UP ON MODEL GUIDANCE...REACHING ALL OF THE SRN HALF
OF THE CWFA BY 18Z. SO THIS FORECAST REPRESENTS A SLIGHTLY BUMP UP
IN TIMING FROM THE PREVIOUS SHIFT. THIS MAKES FOR A TRICKY TEMP
FORECAST. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT HIGHS OCCUR VERY EARLY IN THE
DAY...POSSIBLY EVEN NEAR DAWN FOR SOME SRN NH AREAS. FROM THAT
POINT FORWARD...TEMPS LIKELY FALL DURING THE DAY AS PCPN MOVES
NWD. THIS IS MOSTLY DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED DRY ADVECTION
OCCURRING OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. AS PCPN FALLS TEMPS WILL WET BULB
DOWN TO NEAR FREEZING QUICKLY. HI-RES GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE
NAM12...ARW AND NMM WRF MODELS SHOW THIS IN THEIR 2 M TEMP OUTPUT.
FAVORED A BLEND OF 2 M TEMPS RATHER THAN MOS FOR HOURLY TEMP
TREND.

AS THINGS STAND THIS AFTERNOON...GUIDANCE ALSO INDICATES MAINLY N
TO NNE WINDS AT THE SFC. THIS IS COUPLED WITH NWLY AGEOSTROPHIC
FLOW...WHICH WILL ACT TO KEEP WINDS MAINLY OFFSHORE THRU THE
EVENT. FOR THIS REASON I FEEL THAT COASTAL FNT WILL SET UP
OFFSHORE AS WELL...AND MARINE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL NOT BE A
SIGNIFICANT ISSUE. THE BIGGEST DIFFERENTIATOR BETWEEN RA AND SN
WILL BE INITIAL WET BULBING. SO ATTM THE FORECAST IS FOR
SIGNIFICANT SNWFL RIGHT TO THE COAST...ENOUGH TO IMPACT TRAVEL.
WITH MARGINAL TEMPS IT MAY ALSO BE WET AND HEAVY FOR A TIME...AND
SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES ARE POSSIBLE.

THIS LEADS TO ACTUAL FORECAST SNWFL AMOUNTS. IT IS STILL ROUGHLY
24 HOURS AWAY FROM THE BULK OF THE PCPN...SO THERE REMAINS SOME
NUANCES THAT COULD AFFECT SNWFL. FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW...MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENT WITH TRACKING MID LEVEL LOW CENTERS
VERY CLOSE TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. AT THE SAME TIME...700 MB
HEIGHTS TRY AND CLOSE OFF NEARLY OVERHEAD. THIS FAVORS A STRONG
BAND OF LIFT JUST ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE MID LEVEL LOW TRACK.
DEFORMATION AND FRONTOGENESIS PROGS ON THE ECMWF...GFS...AND
NAM AGREE WITH THIS PLACEMENT...FROM SRN NH TO JUST INLAND FROM
THE COAST OF WRN ME. AS THE MID LEVEL LOWS TAKE THIS TRACK...IT
WILL ALLOW SOME WARMTH ALOFT TO SNEAK NW. IT MAY NOT EVER GET
ABOVE FREEZING AT THESE LEVELS...BUT WARMING TO WITH A COUPLE OF
DEGREES OF FREEZING COULD LEAD TO POOR SN GROWTH FOR A TIME ALONG
THE COAST. SN RATIOS WERE ADJUSTED TO REFLECT THESE EXPECTED
OUTCOMES...LOWERED NEAR THE COAST...AND RAISED JUST INLAND WHERE
STRONGEST DEFORMATION BANDING IS LOCATED. IN ADDITION...WE HAVE
ALSO HAD VERY WARM TEMPS RECENTLY AND WILL START OFF WITH MARGINAL
TEMPS EARLY WED. THIS MAY LEAD TO A FALSE SENSE OF SECURITY
HOWEVER. WHEN STRONGEST LIFT COMES IN...DURING WED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...FORCING AND SOUNDINGS CONFIRM THAT SN MAY FALL HEAVILY
AT TIMES. WITH RATES POSSIBLY APPROACHING 1 INCH/HR IT WILL NOT
MATTER HOW WARM IT HAS BEEN...AND ACCUMULATION WILL OCCUR ON
ROADWAYS.

ONCE AGAIN...THE CONDITIONS WILL BE QUICKLY DETERIORATING AND
EXPECTED TO BE THE WORST WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING...COINCIDING
WITH THE BUSIEST TRAVEL TIMES. TRAVELERS SHOULD BE AT THEIR
DESTINATIONS BY WED AFTERNOON IF AT ALL POSSIBLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN FROM THE
WEST ON THANKSGIVING AS THE STORM DEPARTS INTO THE MARITIMES.
HOWEVER....A LARGE SCALE...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN TO OUR
WEST. 12Z MODEL SUITE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AT THIS TIME WITH THESE
LARGE SCALE FEATURES. HOWEVER...THE NEW EURO RUN DEPICTS A NEARLY
STATIONARY INVERTED TROUGH ALONG THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MAINE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THE SCENARIO WOULD KEEP SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE PORTLAND AREA FOR THE END OF THE WORKWEEK. OTHER
MODELS ARE NOT PICKING UP ON THIS NORLUN TROUGH TYPE FEATURE.
WILL SEE IF THIS FEATURE REMAINS ON THE FOLLOWUP MODEL RUNS.

THEREAFTER...VERY QUIET WITH A BRIEF WARM UP ON SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY
A STRONG COLD FRONT ON MONDAY. MODELS DIVERGE AS TO WHETHER A WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM ALONG THIS FRONT...AFFECTING NEW
ENGLAND. A LARGE AND CHILLY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
FOLLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THRU EARLY WED. CONDITIONS
RAPIDLY DETERIORATE FROM S TO N THRU WED AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS
WILL QUICKLY DROP TO IFR AND LOWER BY EVENING. COULD SEE SOME
BRIEF MIXING WITH RA AT KPSM AND KPWM...BEFORE A TRANSITION TO ALL
SNWFL. WINDS ALONG THE COAST WILL BE GUSTY FROM THE NNE...AROUND
25-30 KTS. CONDITIONS QUICKLY IMPROVE TO MVFR OR VFR THU AS LOW
PRES PULLS AWAY.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION IN THE LONG
TERM. THERE MAY BE LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS IN SCT SNOW SHOWERS
ALONG THE COAST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. MVFR CONDITIONS WITH A
FRONTAL PASSAGE NEXT MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...GALE WARNINGS IN EFFECT STARTING WED AFTERNOON.
COASTAL STORM WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE GULF OF ME...WITH A
BRIEF PERIOD OF GALE FORCE GUSTS. SCA WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED
FOLLOWING THE LOW PRES.

LONG TERM...WINDS WILL LIKELY REACH SCA CRITERIA LATE IN THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.  A SW WIND WILL VEER TO THE NW.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 AM WEDNESDAY TO 7 AM EST THURSDAY
     FOR MEZ012>014-018>028.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM WEDNESDAY TO 7 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR MEZ007>009.
NH...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 AM WEDNESDAY TO 7 AM EST THURSDAY
     FOR NHZ002>010-013-014.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM WEDNESDAY TO 7 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR NHZ001.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM WEDNESDAY TO 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CURTIS
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...




000
FXUS61 KGYX 260511
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1211 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST ON WEDNESDAY AND TRACK NORTHEAST TO JUST SOUTH OF CAPE COD
BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE COASTAL LOW WILL CONTINUE NORTHEAST INTO
THE MARITIMES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
LINGER OVER THE REGION ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY. A WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO THE REGION FROM
THE SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON
SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
MIDNIGHT UPDATE: ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES... STILL WELL ABOVE
FREEZING IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH PWM AND BML WITHIN 3 DEGREES, NOT
SEEING THE TYPICAL NORTH SOUTH GRADIENT. DEWPOINTS ARE TRACKING AS
EXPECTED AND ALREADY HAVE THE DRY AIR NEEDED FOR WET BULBING THE
INITIAL PRECIP OVER TO SNOW TOMORROW.  WILL BE DIGGING DEEP INTO
THE UPCOMING STORM...ONE CONCERN IS THE AMOUNT OF QPF THROUGH THE
NORTHERN ZONES... WHICH IS SHOWING AN UPTICK... COMBINED WITH THE
FLUFF FACTOR THERE MAY NEED TO BE SOME HEADLINE CHANGES BUT WILL
WAIT TO GET A GOOD LOOK AT THE OPTIONS.

PREV DISC: NOT MUCH TO TALK ABOUT TONIGHT...AS FOCUS REMAINS ON
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY BE ON THE INCREASE
TONIGHT AS A COLD FNT CONTINUES TO OOZE SWD. WILL SEE LITTLE TEMP
ADVECTION WITH THIS FEATURE...BUT IMPORTANTLY FOR WED WE WILL SEE
DEW POINT ADVECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
***SIGNIFICANT COASTAL STORM TO AFFECT HOLIDAY TRAVEL***

MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOW IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON STORM TRACK...WITH
THE ECMWF...GFS...AND NAM...ALL MOVING JUST SLIGHTLY NW OF THE
40N/70W BENCHMARK. THE CMC REMAINS THE ERN OUTLIER...SO HAVE
TROUBLE PUTTING MUCH STOCK IN ITS OUTPUT ATTM.

THIS LEADS TO A FAIRLY CONSISTENT QPF FORECAST AS WELL. THE GFS
AND ECMWF ARE CLOSE TO OR JUST OVER 1 INCH LIQUID FOR COASTAL SWRN
ME. IF YOU TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE KNOWN BIAS FOR THE NAM TO GIVE
TOO MUCH QPF ON THE COLD SIDE OF LOW PRES SYSTEMS...AND TAKE 2/3
OF ITS QPF...YOU ALSO GET JUST OVER 1 INCH QPF FOR THOSE SAME
AREAS. DIFFERENCES ARISE THE FARTHER NW ONE HEADS FROM THE COAST.
FOR THIS REASON THERE REMAINS A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE MTNS ON
AMOUNTS.

PCPN HAS SPED UP ON MODEL GUIDANCE...REACHING ALL OF THE SRN HALF
OF THE CWFA BY 18Z. SO THIS FORECAST REPRESENTS A SLIGHTLY BUMP UP
IN TIMING FROM THE PREVIOUS SHIFT. THIS MAKES FOR A TRICKY TEMP
FORECAST. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT HIGHS OCCUR VERY EARLY IN THE
DAY...POSSIBLY EVEN NEAR DAWN FOR SOME SRN NH AREAS. FROM THAT
POINT FORWARD...TEMPS LIKELY FALL DURING THE DAY AS PCPN MOVES
NWD. THIS IS MOSTLY DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED DRY ADVECTION
OCCURRING OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. AS PCPN FALLS TEMPS WILL WET BULB
DOWN TO NEAR FREEZING QUICKLY. HI-RES GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE
NAM12...ARW AND NMM WRF MODELS SHOW THIS IN THEIR 2 M TEMP OUTPUT.
FAVORED A BLEND OF 2 M TEMPS RATHER THAN MOS FOR HOURLY TEMP
TREND.

AS THINGS STAND THIS AFTERNOON...GUIDANCE ALSO INDICATES MAINLY N
TO NNE WINDS AT THE SFC. THIS IS COUPLED WITH NWLY AGEOSTROPHIC
FLOW...WHICH WILL ACT TO KEEP WINDS MAINLY OFFSHORE THRU THE
EVENT. FOR THIS REASON I FEEL THAT COASTAL FNT WILL SET UP
OFFSHORE AS WELL...AND MARINE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL NOT BE A
SIGNIFICANT ISSUE. THE BIGGEST DIFFERENTIATOR BETWEEN RA AND SN
WILL BE INITIAL WET BULBING. SO ATTM THE FORECAST IS FOR
SIGNIFICANT SNWFL RIGHT TO THE COAST...ENOUGH TO IMPACT TRAVEL.
WITH MARGINAL TEMPS IT MAY ALSO BE WET AND HEAVY FOR A TIME...AND
SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES ARE POSSIBLE.

THIS LEADS TO ACTUAL FORECAST SNWFL AMOUNTS. IT IS STILL ROUGHLY
24 HOURS AWAY FROM THE BULK OF THE PCPN...SO THERE REMAINS SOME
NUANCES THAT COULD AFFECT SNWFL. FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW...MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENT WITH TRACKING MID LEVEL LOW CENTERS
VERY CLOSE TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. AT THE SAME TIME...700 MB
HEIGHTS TRY AND CLOSE OFF NEARLY OVERHEAD. THIS FAVORS A STRONG
BAND OF LIFT JUST ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE MID LEVEL LOW TRACK.
DEFORMATION AND FRONTOGENESIS PROGS ON THE ECMWF...GFS...AND
NAM AGREE WITH THIS PLACEMENT...FROM SRN NH TO JUST INLAND FROM
THE COAST OF WRN ME. AS THE MID LEVEL LOWS TAKE THIS TRACK...IT
WILL ALLOW SOME WARMTH ALOFT TO SNEAK NW. IT MAY NOT EVER GET
ABOVE FREEZING AT THESE LEVELS...BUT WARMING TO WITH A COUPLE OF
DEGREES OF FREEZING COULD LEAD TO POOR SN GROWTH FOR A TIME ALONG
THE COAST. SN RATIOS WERE ADJUSTED TO REFLECT THESE EXPECTED
OUTCOMES...LOWERED NEAR THE COAST...AND RAISED JUST INLAND WHERE
STRONGEST DEFORMATION BANDING IS LOCATED. IN ADDITION...WE HAVE
ALSO HAD VERY WARM TEMPS RECENTLY AND WILL START OFF WITH MARGINAL
TEMPS EARLY WED. THIS MAY LEAD TO A FALSE SENSE OF SECURITY
HOWEVER. WHEN STRONGEST LIFT COMES IN...DURING WED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...FORCING AND SOUNDINGS CONFIRM THAT SN MAY FALL HEAVILY
AT TIMES. WITH RATES POSSIBLY APPROACHING 1 INCH/HR IT WILL NOT
MATTER HOW WARM IT HAS BEEN...AND ACCUMULATION WILL OCCUR ON
ROADWAYS.

ONCE AGAIN...THE CONDITIONS WILL BE QUICKLY DETERIORATING AND
EXPECTED TO BE THE WORST WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING...COINCIDING
WITH THE BUSIEST TRAVEL TIMES. TRAVELERS SHOULD BE AT THEIR
DESTINATIONS BY WED AFTERNOON IF AT ALL POSSIBLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN FROM THE
WEST ON THANKSGIVING AS THE STORM DEPARTS INTO THE MARITIMES.
HOWEVER....A LARGE SCALE...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN TO OUR
WEST. 12Z MODEL SUITE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AT THIS TIME WITH THESE
LARGE SCALE FEATURES. HOWEVER...THE NEW EURO RUN DEPICTS A NEARLY
STATIONARY INVERTED TROUGH ALONG THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MAINE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THE SCENARIO WOULD KEEP SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE PORTLAND AREA FOR THE END OF THE WORKWEEK. OTHER
MODELS ARE NOT PICKING UP ON THIS NORLUN TROUGH TYPE FEATURE.
WILL SEE IF THIS FEATURE REMAINS ON THE FOLLOWUP MODEL RUNS.

THEREAFTER...VERY QUIET WITH A BRIEF WARM UP ON SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY
A STRONG COLD FRONT ON MONDAY. MODELS DIVERGE AS TO WHETHER A WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM ALONG THIS FRONT...AFFECTING NEW
ENGLAND. A LARGE AND CHILLY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
FOLLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THRU EARLY WED. CONDITIONS
RAPIDLY DETERIORATE FROM S TO N THRU WED AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS
WILL QUICKLY DROP TO IFR AND LOWER BY EVENING. COULD SEE SOME
BRIEF MIXING WITH RA AT KPSM AND KPWM...BEFORE A TRANSITION TO ALL
SNWFL. WINDS ALONG THE COAST WILL BE GUSTY FROM THE NNE...AROUND
25-30 KTS. CONDITIONS QUICKLY IMPROVE TO MVFR OR VFR THU AS LOW
PRES PULLS AWAY.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION IN THE LONG
TERM. THERE MAY BE LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS IN SCT SNOW SHOWERS
ALONG THE COAST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. MVFR CONDITIONS WITH A
FRONTAL PASSAGE NEXT MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...GALE WARNINGS IN EFFECT STARTING WED AFTERNOON.
COASTAL STORM WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE GULF OF ME...WITH A
BRIEF PERIOD OF GALE FORCE GUSTS. SCA WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED
FOLLOWING THE LOW PRES.

LONG TERM...WINDS WILL LIKELY REACH SCA CRITERIA LATE IN THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.  A SW WIND WILL VEER TO THE NW.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 AM WEDNESDAY TO 7 AM EST THURSDAY
     FOR MEZ012>014-018>028.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM WEDNESDAY TO 7 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR MEZ007>009.
NH...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 AM WEDNESDAY TO 7 AM EST THURSDAY
     FOR NHZ002>010-013-014.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM WEDNESDAY TO 7 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR NHZ001.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM WEDNESDAY TO 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CURTIS
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...



000
FXUS61 KCAR 260259
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
959 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE
WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST OF THE GULF OF MAINE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THEN
EXIT ACROSS THE MARITIMES THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
945 PM UPDATE...ADJUSTED THE HRLY TEMPERATURES TO MATCH THE LATEST
CONDITIONS AND HALT THE COOLING BY 3 HRS AS TEMPERATURES STILL
HOLING IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ACROSS THE NORTH/WEST AND LOW
TO MID 40S CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST. THIS MEANS AN ADJUSTMENT UPWARD
FOR THE OVERNIGHT MINS. W WINDS WILL KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE MIXED.
PARTIAL CLEARING NOW LOOKS TO BE BRIEF PER THE LATEST IR
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING CLOUD STREAMING NE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY.
INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
TOWARD THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MAINE WEDNESDAY. CLOUD COVER WILL
INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY. PRECIPITATION WILL
THEN EXPAND NORTHWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS
PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW. BASED ON CRITICAL
THICKNESSES AND BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES PRECIPITATION WILL
INITIALLY DEVELOP IN THE FORM OF RAIN OR MIXED RAIN/SNOW ACROSS
CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS...WITH PRECIPITATION TRANSITIONING TO
MOSTLY SNOW THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS WILL BE AROUND AN
INCH OR LESS. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT STARTING
WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN AND NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA...WITH WINTER STORM WARNINGS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST AREA. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE
MID TO UPPER 20S NORTH...TO THE LOWER TO MID 30S DOWNEAST. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 30S
NORTH...TO THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 DOWNEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON THE SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODELS HAVE COME INTO
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT. HEAVIEST PERIOD OF SNOW WILL BE DURING THE
EVENING, BUT EVEN THEN, THIS IS NOT A PARTICULARLY INTENSE SYSTEM
AND SNOWFALL RATES SHOULDN`T BE MUCH MORE THAN ONE INCH PER HOUR
AT MOST. HOWEVER, IT IS HIGH IMPACT BECAUSE OF IT OCCURRING
DURING SUCH A HEAVY TRAVEL TIME.

PRECIPITATION TYPE SHOULD BE ALL SNOW FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SNOW
RATIOS WON`T BE THAT GREAT THOUGH, RANGING FROM AROUND 8 TO 1
ALONG THE COAST TO 13 TO 1 FURTHER INLAND. PART OF THE REASON FOR
THE POOR SNOW RATIOS IS FAIRLY WARM AIR ALOFT ALOFT. THE AIR
SHOULDN`T BE WARM ENOUGH FOR FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET PROBLEMS, BUT
IT ALSO WON`T BE GREAT FOR SNOWFLAKE GROWTH IN THE AREAS WITH THE
HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION (DOWNEAST).

SNOW TAPERS OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THURSDAY MORNING. MODELS HAVE
SPED UP THE END OF THE STORM JUST A TOUCH. TRAVEL MIDDAY THURSDAY
INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY EASIER THAN THURSDAY
MORNING.

COLDER AIR MOVES IN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. NOTHING MORE THAN A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA...A
SURFACE HIGH WILL BE BUILDING INTO AREA. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL MOVE EAST OF MAINE AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. A NEW LOW OVER
LAKE SUPERIOR...AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONT EXTENDING EAST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. BY SAT MRNG THE NEW LOW MOVES EAST TO NRN
LAKE MICHIGAN...THE WARM FRONT MOVES EAST TO VT/NH. BY MID DAY
SAT...THE GFS MOVES THE WARM FRONT INTO WRN ME...THE ECMWF SLOWS
THE EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE WARM FRONT KEEPING IT OVER NH. BY SAT
EVNG...THE GFS MOVES THE LOW JUST NW OF QUEBEC CITY AND THE WARM
FRONT TO ERN ME...THE ECMWF MOVES THE LOW TO JAMES BAY AND MOVES
THE WARM FRONT INTO WRN ME. THE GFS AND ECMWF WILL REMAIN OUT OF
FAZE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH THE ECMWF LAGGING 6 TO 12
HRS BEHIND THE GFS. EARLY SUN MRNG THE GFS SHOWS A LOW OVER LAKE
ONTARIO...ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA. SUN MRNG THE WARM FRONT MOVES INTO SW ME. BY MON MRNG BOTH
THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THIS SYSTEM HAS MOVED EAST OF THE AREA.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER TROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD.

LOADED THE SUPERBLEND THROUGH THE PERIOD...ADDED 15 PERCENT TO
WINDS FOR GUST OVER LAND 30 PERCENT FOR WINDS OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. CONDITIONS WILL THEN LOWER TO MVFR/IFR
LEVELS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

SHORT AND LONG TERM...IFR OR LOWER AREAWIDE IN SNOW WEDNESDAY
NIGHT, IMPROVING TO VFR BY MIDDAY THURSDAY. GENERALLY VFR THURSDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR ON THE
WATERS TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. VISIBILITIES WILL LOWER IN
DEVELOPING RAIN WEDNESDAY.

SHORT TERM: ISSUED GALE WARNING FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR STRONG
NORTHERLY WINDS. THE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DIMINISH DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY, AS WILL THE SEAS.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO 9 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR MEZ001>004-010.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO 9 AM EST THURSDAY
     FOR MEZ005-006-011-015>017-029>032.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 9 PM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HEWITT



000
FXUS61 KCAR 260259
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
959 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE
WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST OF THE GULF OF MAINE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THEN
EXIT ACROSS THE MARITIMES THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
945 PM UPDATE...ADJUSTED THE HRLY TEMPERATURES TO MATCH THE LATEST
CONDITIONS AND HALT THE COOLING BY 3 HRS AS TEMPERATURES STILL
HOLING IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ACROSS THE NORTH/WEST AND LOW
TO MID 40S CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST. THIS MEANS AN ADJUSTMENT UPWARD
FOR THE OVERNIGHT MINS. W WINDS WILL KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE MIXED.
PARTIAL CLEARING NOW LOOKS TO BE BRIEF PER THE LATEST IR
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING CLOUD STREAMING NE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY.
INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
TOWARD THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MAINE WEDNESDAY. CLOUD COVER WILL
INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY. PRECIPITATION WILL
THEN EXPAND NORTHWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS
PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW. BASED ON CRITICAL
THICKNESSES AND BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES PRECIPITATION WILL
INITIALLY DEVELOP IN THE FORM OF RAIN OR MIXED RAIN/SNOW ACROSS
CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS...WITH PRECIPITATION TRANSITIONING TO
MOSTLY SNOW THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS WILL BE AROUND AN
INCH OR LESS. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT STARTING
WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN AND NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA...WITH WINTER STORM WARNINGS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST AREA. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE
MID TO UPPER 20S NORTH...TO THE LOWER TO MID 30S DOWNEAST. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 30S
NORTH...TO THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 DOWNEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON THE SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODELS HAVE COME INTO
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT. HEAVIEST PERIOD OF SNOW WILL BE DURING THE
EVENING, BUT EVEN THEN, THIS IS NOT A PARTICULARLY INTENSE SYSTEM
AND SNOWFALL RATES SHOULDN`T BE MUCH MORE THAN ONE INCH PER HOUR
AT MOST. HOWEVER, IT IS HIGH IMPACT BECAUSE OF IT OCCURRING
DURING SUCH A HEAVY TRAVEL TIME.

PRECIPITATION TYPE SHOULD BE ALL SNOW FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SNOW
RATIOS WON`T BE THAT GREAT THOUGH, RANGING FROM AROUND 8 TO 1
ALONG THE COAST TO 13 TO 1 FURTHER INLAND. PART OF THE REASON FOR
THE POOR SNOW RATIOS IS FAIRLY WARM AIR ALOFT ALOFT. THE AIR
SHOULDN`T BE WARM ENOUGH FOR FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET PROBLEMS, BUT
IT ALSO WON`T BE GREAT FOR SNOWFLAKE GROWTH IN THE AREAS WITH THE
HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION (DOWNEAST).

SNOW TAPERS OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THURSDAY MORNING. MODELS HAVE
SPED UP THE END OF THE STORM JUST A TOUCH. TRAVEL MIDDAY THURSDAY
INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY EASIER THAN THURSDAY
MORNING.

COLDER AIR MOVES IN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. NOTHING MORE THAN A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA...A
SURFACE HIGH WILL BE BUILDING INTO AREA. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL MOVE EAST OF MAINE AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. A NEW LOW OVER
LAKE SUPERIOR...AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONT EXTENDING EAST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. BY SAT MRNG THE NEW LOW MOVES EAST TO NRN
LAKE MICHIGAN...THE WARM FRONT MOVES EAST TO VT/NH. BY MID DAY
SAT...THE GFS MOVES THE WARM FRONT INTO WRN ME...THE ECMWF SLOWS
THE EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE WARM FRONT KEEPING IT OVER NH. BY SAT
EVNG...THE GFS MOVES THE LOW JUST NW OF QUEBEC CITY AND THE WARM
FRONT TO ERN ME...THE ECMWF MOVES THE LOW TO JAMES BAY AND MOVES
THE WARM FRONT INTO WRN ME. THE GFS AND ECMWF WILL REMAIN OUT OF
FAZE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH THE ECMWF LAGGING 6 TO 12
HRS BEHIND THE GFS. EARLY SUN MRNG THE GFS SHOWS A LOW OVER LAKE
ONTARIO...ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA. SUN MRNG THE WARM FRONT MOVES INTO SW ME. BY MON MRNG BOTH
THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THIS SYSTEM HAS MOVED EAST OF THE AREA.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER TROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD.

LOADED THE SUPERBLEND THROUGH THE PERIOD...ADDED 15 PERCENT TO
WINDS FOR GUST OVER LAND 30 PERCENT FOR WINDS OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. CONDITIONS WILL THEN LOWER TO MVFR/IFR
LEVELS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

SHORT AND LONG TERM...IFR OR LOWER AREAWIDE IN SNOW WEDNESDAY
NIGHT, IMPROVING TO VFR BY MIDDAY THURSDAY. GENERALLY VFR THURSDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR ON THE
WATERS TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. VISIBILITIES WILL LOWER IN
DEVELOPING RAIN WEDNESDAY.

SHORT TERM: ISSUED GALE WARNING FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR STRONG
NORTHERLY WINDS. THE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DIMINISH DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY, AS WILL THE SEAS.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO 9 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR MEZ001>004-010.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO 9 AM EST THURSDAY
     FOR MEZ005-006-011-015>017-029>032.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 9 PM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HEWITT



000
FXUS61 KCAR 260259
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
959 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE
WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST OF THE GULF OF MAINE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THEN
EXIT ACROSS THE MARITIMES THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
945 PM UPDATE...ADJUSTED THE HRLY TEMPERATURES TO MATCH THE LATEST
CONDITIONS AND HALT THE COOLING BY 3 HRS AS TEMPERATURES STILL
HOLING IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ACROSS THE NORTH/WEST AND LOW
TO MID 40S CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST. THIS MEANS AN ADJUSTMENT UPWARD
FOR THE OVERNIGHT MINS. W WINDS WILL KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE MIXED.
PARTIAL CLEARING NOW LOOKS TO BE BRIEF PER THE LATEST IR
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING CLOUD STREAMING NE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY.
INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
TOWARD THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MAINE WEDNESDAY. CLOUD COVER WILL
INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY. PRECIPITATION WILL
THEN EXPAND NORTHWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS
PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW. BASED ON CRITICAL
THICKNESSES AND BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES PRECIPITATION WILL
INITIALLY DEVELOP IN THE FORM OF RAIN OR MIXED RAIN/SNOW ACROSS
CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS...WITH PRECIPITATION TRANSITIONING TO
MOSTLY SNOW THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS WILL BE AROUND AN
INCH OR LESS. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT STARTING
WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN AND NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA...WITH WINTER STORM WARNINGS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST AREA. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE
MID TO UPPER 20S NORTH...TO THE LOWER TO MID 30S DOWNEAST. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 30S
NORTH...TO THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 DOWNEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON THE SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODELS HAVE COME INTO
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT. HEAVIEST PERIOD OF SNOW WILL BE DURING THE
EVENING, BUT EVEN THEN, THIS IS NOT A PARTICULARLY INTENSE SYSTEM
AND SNOWFALL RATES SHOULDN`T BE MUCH MORE THAN ONE INCH PER HOUR
AT MOST. HOWEVER, IT IS HIGH IMPACT BECAUSE OF IT OCCURRING
DURING SUCH A HEAVY TRAVEL TIME.

PRECIPITATION TYPE SHOULD BE ALL SNOW FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SNOW
RATIOS WON`T BE THAT GREAT THOUGH, RANGING FROM AROUND 8 TO 1
ALONG THE COAST TO 13 TO 1 FURTHER INLAND. PART OF THE REASON FOR
THE POOR SNOW RATIOS IS FAIRLY WARM AIR ALOFT ALOFT. THE AIR
SHOULDN`T BE WARM ENOUGH FOR FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET PROBLEMS, BUT
IT ALSO WON`T BE GREAT FOR SNOWFLAKE GROWTH IN THE AREAS WITH THE
HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION (DOWNEAST).

SNOW TAPERS OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THURSDAY MORNING. MODELS HAVE
SPED UP THE END OF THE STORM JUST A TOUCH. TRAVEL MIDDAY THURSDAY
INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY EASIER THAN THURSDAY
MORNING.

COLDER AIR MOVES IN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. NOTHING MORE THAN A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA...A
SURFACE HIGH WILL BE BUILDING INTO AREA. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL MOVE EAST OF MAINE AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. A NEW LOW OVER
LAKE SUPERIOR...AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONT EXTENDING EAST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. BY SAT MRNG THE NEW LOW MOVES EAST TO NRN
LAKE MICHIGAN...THE WARM FRONT MOVES EAST TO VT/NH. BY MID DAY
SAT...THE GFS MOVES THE WARM FRONT INTO WRN ME...THE ECMWF SLOWS
THE EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE WARM FRONT KEEPING IT OVER NH. BY SAT
EVNG...THE GFS MOVES THE LOW JUST NW OF QUEBEC CITY AND THE WARM
FRONT TO ERN ME...THE ECMWF MOVES THE LOW TO JAMES BAY AND MOVES
THE WARM FRONT INTO WRN ME. THE GFS AND ECMWF WILL REMAIN OUT OF
FAZE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH THE ECMWF LAGGING 6 TO 12
HRS BEHIND THE GFS. EARLY SUN MRNG THE GFS SHOWS A LOW OVER LAKE
ONTARIO...ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA. SUN MRNG THE WARM FRONT MOVES INTO SW ME. BY MON MRNG BOTH
THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THIS SYSTEM HAS MOVED EAST OF THE AREA.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER TROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD.

LOADED THE SUPERBLEND THROUGH THE PERIOD...ADDED 15 PERCENT TO
WINDS FOR GUST OVER LAND 30 PERCENT FOR WINDS OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. CONDITIONS WILL THEN LOWER TO MVFR/IFR
LEVELS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

SHORT AND LONG TERM...IFR OR LOWER AREAWIDE IN SNOW WEDNESDAY
NIGHT, IMPROVING TO VFR BY MIDDAY THURSDAY. GENERALLY VFR THURSDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR ON THE
WATERS TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. VISIBILITIES WILL LOWER IN
DEVELOPING RAIN WEDNESDAY.

SHORT TERM: ISSUED GALE WARNING FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR STRONG
NORTHERLY WINDS. THE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DIMINISH DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY, AS WILL THE SEAS.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO 9 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR MEZ001>004-010.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO 9 AM EST THURSDAY
     FOR MEZ005-006-011-015>017-029>032.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 9 PM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HEWITT



000
FXUS61 KCAR 260259
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
959 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE
WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST OF THE GULF OF MAINE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THEN
EXIT ACROSS THE MARITIMES THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
945 PM UPDATE...ADJUSTED THE HRLY TEMPERATURES TO MATCH THE LATEST
CONDITIONS AND HALT THE COOLING BY 3 HRS AS TEMPERATURES STILL
HOLING IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ACROSS THE NORTH/WEST AND LOW
TO MID 40S CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST. THIS MEANS AN ADJUSTMENT UPWARD
FOR THE OVERNIGHT MINS. W WINDS WILL KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE MIXED.
PARTIAL CLEARING NOW LOOKS TO BE BRIEF PER THE LATEST IR
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING CLOUD STREAMING NE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY.
INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
TOWARD THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MAINE WEDNESDAY. CLOUD COVER WILL
INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY. PRECIPITATION WILL
THEN EXPAND NORTHWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS
PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW. BASED ON CRITICAL
THICKNESSES AND BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES PRECIPITATION WILL
INITIALLY DEVELOP IN THE FORM OF RAIN OR MIXED RAIN/SNOW ACROSS
CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS...WITH PRECIPITATION TRANSITIONING TO
MOSTLY SNOW THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS WILL BE AROUND AN
INCH OR LESS. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT STARTING
WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN AND NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA...WITH WINTER STORM WARNINGS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST AREA. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE
MID TO UPPER 20S NORTH...TO THE LOWER TO MID 30S DOWNEAST. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 30S
NORTH...TO THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 DOWNEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON THE SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODELS HAVE COME INTO
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT. HEAVIEST PERIOD OF SNOW WILL BE DURING THE
EVENING, BUT EVEN THEN, THIS IS NOT A PARTICULARLY INTENSE SYSTEM
AND SNOWFALL RATES SHOULDN`T BE MUCH MORE THAN ONE INCH PER HOUR
AT MOST. HOWEVER, IT IS HIGH IMPACT BECAUSE OF IT OCCURRING
DURING SUCH A HEAVY TRAVEL TIME.

PRECIPITATION TYPE SHOULD BE ALL SNOW FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SNOW
RATIOS WON`T BE THAT GREAT THOUGH, RANGING FROM AROUND 8 TO 1
ALONG THE COAST TO 13 TO 1 FURTHER INLAND. PART OF THE REASON FOR
THE POOR SNOW RATIOS IS FAIRLY WARM AIR ALOFT ALOFT. THE AIR
SHOULDN`T BE WARM ENOUGH FOR FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET PROBLEMS, BUT
IT ALSO WON`T BE GREAT FOR SNOWFLAKE GROWTH IN THE AREAS WITH THE
HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION (DOWNEAST).

SNOW TAPERS OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THURSDAY MORNING. MODELS HAVE
SPED UP THE END OF THE STORM JUST A TOUCH. TRAVEL MIDDAY THURSDAY
INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY EASIER THAN THURSDAY
MORNING.

COLDER AIR MOVES IN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. NOTHING MORE THAN A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA...A
SURFACE HIGH WILL BE BUILDING INTO AREA. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL MOVE EAST OF MAINE AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. A NEW LOW OVER
LAKE SUPERIOR...AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONT EXTENDING EAST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. BY SAT MRNG THE NEW LOW MOVES EAST TO NRN
LAKE MICHIGAN...THE WARM FRONT MOVES EAST TO VT/NH. BY MID DAY
SAT...THE GFS MOVES THE WARM FRONT INTO WRN ME...THE ECMWF SLOWS
THE EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE WARM FRONT KEEPING IT OVER NH. BY SAT
EVNG...THE GFS MOVES THE LOW JUST NW OF QUEBEC CITY AND THE WARM
FRONT TO ERN ME...THE ECMWF MOVES THE LOW TO JAMES BAY AND MOVES
THE WARM FRONT INTO WRN ME. THE GFS AND ECMWF WILL REMAIN OUT OF
FAZE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH THE ECMWF LAGGING 6 TO 12
HRS BEHIND THE GFS. EARLY SUN MRNG THE GFS SHOWS A LOW OVER LAKE
ONTARIO...ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA. SUN MRNG THE WARM FRONT MOVES INTO SW ME. BY MON MRNG BOTH
THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THIS SYSTEM HAS MOVED EAST OF THE AREA.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER TROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD.

LOADED THE SUPERBLEND THROUGH THE PERIOD...ADDED 15 PERCENT TO
WINDS FOR GUST OVER LAND 30 PERCENT FOR WINDS OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. CONDITIONS WILL THEN LOWER TO MVFR/IFR
LEVELS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

SHORT AND LONG TERM...IFR OR LOWER AREAWIDE IN SNOW WEDNESDAY
NIGHT, IMPROVING TO VFR BY MIDDAY THURSDAY. GENERALLY VFR THURSDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR ON THE
WATERS TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. VISIBILITIES WILL LOWER IN
DEVELOPING RAIN WEDNESDAY.

SHORT TERM: ISSUED GALE WARNING FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR STRONG
NORTHERLY WINDS. THE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DIMINISH DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY, AS WILL THE SEAS.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO 9 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR MEZ001>004-010.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO 9 AM EST THURSDAY
     FOR MEZ005-006-011-015>017-029>032.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 9 PM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HEWITT



000
FXUS61 KGYX 260143
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
843 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST ON WEDNESDAY AND TRACK NORTHEAST TO JUST SOUTH OF CAPE COD
BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE COASTAL LOW WILL CONTINUE NORTHEAST INTO
THE MARITIMES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
LINGER OVER THE REGION ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY. A WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO THE REGION FROM
THE SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON
SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
840 PM UPDATE: VERY QUIET EVENING. UPDATED LATEST OBS DATA WITH A
FEW MINOR TWEAKS.  NO OTHER CHANGES ATTM.

PREV DISC:
NOT MUCH TO TALK ABOUT TONIGHT...AS FOCUS REMAINS ON THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY BE ON THE INCREASE TONIGHT
AS A COLD FNT CONTINUES TO OOZE SWD. WILL SEE LITTLE TEMP
ADVECTION WITH THIS FEATURE...BUT IMPORTANTLY FOR WED WE WILL SEE
DEW POINT ADVECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
***SIGNIFICANT COASTAL STORM TO AFFECT HOLIDAY TRAVEL***

MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOW IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON STORM TRACK...WITH
THE ECMWF...GFS...AND NAM...ALL MOVING JUST SLIGHTLY NW OF THE
40N/70W BENCHMARK. THE CMC REMAINS THE ERN OUTLIER...SO HAVE
TROUBLE PUTTING MUCH STOCK IN ITS OUTPUT ATTM.

THIS LEADS TO A FAIRLY CONSISTENT QPF FORECAST AS WELL. THE GFS
AND ECMWF ARE CLOSE TO OR JUST OVER 1 INCH LIQUID FOR COASTAL SWRN
ME. IF YOU TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE KNOWN BIAS FOR THE NAM TO GIVE
TOO MUCH QPF ON THE COLD SIDE OF LOW PRES SYSTEMS...AND TAKE 2/3
OF ITS QPF...YOU ALSO GET JUST OVER 1 INCH QPF FOR THOSE SAME
AREAS. DIFFERENCES ARISE THE FARTHER NW ONE HEADS FROM THE COAST.
FOR THIS REASON THERE REMAINS A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE MTNS ON
AMOUNTS.

PCPN HAS SPED UP ON MODEL GUIDANCE...REACHING ALL OF THE SRN HALF
OF THE CWFA BY 18Z. SO THIS FORECAST REPRESENTS A SLIGHTLY BUMP UP
IN TIMING FROM THE PREVIOUS SHIFT. THIS MAKES FOR A TRICKY TEMP
FORECAST. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT HIGHS OCCUR VERY EARLY IN THE
DAY...POSSIBLY EVEN NEAR DAWN FOR SOME SRN NH AREAS. FROM THAT
POINT FORWARD...TEMPS LIKELY FALL DURING THE DAY AS PCPN MOVES
NWD. THIS IS MOSTLY DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED DRY ADVECTION
OCCURRING OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. AS PCPN FALLS TEMPS WILL WET BULB
DOWN TO NEAR FREEZING QUICKLY. HI-RES GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE
NAM12...ARW AND NMM WRF MODELS SHOW THIS IN THEIR 2 M TEMP OUTPUT.
FAVORED A BLEND OF 2 M TEMPS RATHER THAN MOS FOR HOURLY TEMP
TREND.

AS THINGS STAND THIS AFTERNOON...GUIDANCE ALSO INDICATES MAINLY N
TO NNE WINDS AT THE SFC. THIS IS COUPLED WITH NWLY AGEOSTROPHIC
FLOW...WHICH WILL ACT TO KEEP WINDS MAINLY OFFSHORE THRU THE
EVENT. FOR THIS REASON I FEEL THAT COASTAL FNT WILL SET UP
OFFSHORE AS WELL...AND MARINE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL NOT BE A
SIGNIFICANT ISSUE. THE BIGGEST DIFFERENTIATOR BETWEEN RA AND SN
WILL BE INITIAL WET BULBING. SO ATTM THE FORECAST IS FOR
SIGNIFICANT SNWFL RIGHT TO THE COAST...ENOUGH TO IMPACT TRAVEL.
WITH MARGINAL TEMPS IT MAY ALSO BE WET AND HEAVY FOR A TIME...AND
SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES ARE POSSIBLE.

THIS LEADS TO ACTUAL FORECAST SNWFL AMOUNTS. IT IS STILL ROUGHLY
24 HOURS AWAY FROM THE BULK OF THE PCPN...SO THERE REMAINS SOME
NUANCES THAT COULD AFFECT SNWFL. FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW...MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENT WITH TRACKING MID LEVEL LOW CENTERS
VERY CLOSE TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. AT THE SAME TIME...700 MB
HEIGHTS TRY AND CLOSE OFF NEARLY OVERHEAD. THIS FAVORS A STRONG
BAND OF LIFT JUST ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE MID LEVEL LOW TRACK.
DEFORMATION AND FRONTOGENESIS PROGS ON THE ECMWF...GFS...AND
NAM AGREE WITH THIS PLACEMENT...FROM SRN NH TO JUST INLAND FROM
THE COAST OF WRN ME. AS THE MID LEVEL LOWS TAKE THIS TRACK...IT
WILL ALLOW SOME WARMTH ALOFT TO SNEAK NW. IT MAY NOT EVER GET
ABOVE FREEZING AT THESE LEVELS...BUT WARMING TO WITH A COUPLE OF
DEGREES OF FREEZING COULD LEAD TO POOR SN GROWTH FOR A TIME ALONG
THE COAST. SN RATIOS WERE ADJUSTED TO REFLECT THESE EXPECTED
OUTCOMES...LOWERED NEAR THE COAST...AND RAISED JUST INLAND WHERE
STRONGEST DEFORMATION BANDING IS LOCATED. IN ADDITION...WE HAVE
ALSO HAD VERY WARM TEMPS RECENTLY AND WILL START OFF WITH MARGINAL
TEMPS EARLY WED. THIS MAY LEAD TO A FALSE SENSE OF SECURITY
HOWEVER. WHEN STRONGEST LIFT COMES IN...DURING WED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...FORCING AND SOUNDINGS CONFIRM THAT SN MAY FALL HEAVILY
AT TIMES. WITH RATES POSSIBLY APPROACHING 1 INCH/HR IT WILL NOT
MATTER HOW WARM IT HAS BEEN...AND ACCUMULATION WILL OCCUR ON
ROADWAYS.

ONCE AGAIN...THE CONDITIONS WILL BE QUICKLY DETERIORATING AND
EXPECTED TO BE THE WORST WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING...COINCIDING
WITH THE BUSIEST TRAVEL TIMES. TRAVELERS SHOULD BE AT THEIR
DESTINATIONS BY WED AFTERNOON IF AT ALL POSSIBLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN FROM THE
WEST ON THANKSGIVING AS THE STORM DEPARTS INTO THE MARITIMES.
HOWEVER....A LARGE SCALE...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN TO OUR
WEST. 12Z MODEL SUITE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AT THIS TIME WITH THESE
LARGE SCALE FEATURES. HOWEVER...THE NEW EURO RUN DEPICTS A NEARLY
STATIONARY INVERTED TROUGH ALONG THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MAINE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THE SCENARIO WOULD KEEP SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE PORTLAND AREA FOR THE END OF THE WORKWEEK. OTHER
MODELS ARE NOT PICKING UP ON THIS NORLUN TROUGH TYPE FEATURE.
WILL SEE IF THIS FEATURE REMAINS ON THE FOLLOWUP MODEL RUNS.

THEREAFTER...VERY QUIET WITH A BRIEF WARM UP ON SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY
A STRONG COLD FRONT ON MONDAY. MODELS DIVERGE AS TO WHETHER A WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM ALONG THIS FRONT...AFFECTING NEW
ENGLAND. A LARGE AND CHILLY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
FOLLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THRU EARLY WED. CONDITIONS
RAPIDLY DETERIORATE FROM S TO N THRU WED AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS
WILL QUICKLY DROP TO IFR AND LOWER BY EVENING. COULD SEE SOME
BRIEF MIXING WITH RA AT KPSM AND KPWM...BEFORE A TRANSITION TO ALL
SNWFL. WINDS ALONG THE COAST WILL BE GUSTY FROM THE NNE...AROUND
25-30 KTS. CONDITIONS QUICKLY IMPROVE TO MVFR OR VFR THU AS LOW
PRES PULLS AWAY.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION IN THE LONG
TERM. THERE MAY BE LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS IN SCT SNOW SHOWERS
ALONG THE COAST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. MVFR CONDITIONS WITH A
FRONTAL PASSAGE NEXT MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...GALE WARNINGS IN EFFECT STARTING WED AFTERNOON.
COASTAL STORM WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE GULF OF ME...WITH A
BRIEF PERIOD OF GALE FORCE GUSTS. SCA WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED
FOLLOWING THE LOW PRES.

LONG TERM...WINDS WILL LIKELY REACH SCA CRITERIA LATE IN THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.  A SW WIND WILL VEER TO THE NW.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 AM WEDNESDAY TO 7 AM EST THURSDAY
     FOR MEZ012>014-018>028.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM WEDNESDAY TO 7 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR MEZ007>009.
NH...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 AM WEDNESDAY TO 7 AM EST THURSDAY
     FOR NHZ002>010-013-014.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM WEDNESDAY TO 7 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR NHZ001.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM WEDNESDAY TO 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KCAR 260016
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
716 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE
WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST OF THE GULF OF MAINE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THEN
EXIT ACROSS THE MARITIMES THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
710 PM UPDATE...ADJUSTED THE SKY CONDITIONS TO SHOW PARTIAL
CLEARING ACROSS THE DOWNEAST AND CENTRAL AREAS W/CLOUDS STILL
HOLDING ON ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS. WINDS WILL BE COMING DOWN
AND ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE GUSTS TO CUT THEM BACK. SURFACEANALYSIS
SHOWED A TROF W/COOLER AIR FILTERING INTO THE REGION. COLD FRONT
W/A SIGNIFICANT SHOT OF COLD AIR STILL RESIDING BACK ACROSS
WESTERN QUEBEC.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY.
INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
TOWARD THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MAINE WEDNESDAY. CLOUD COVER WILL
INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY. PRECIPITATION WILL
THEN EXPAND NORTHWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS
PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW. BASED ON CRITICAL
THICKNESSES AND BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES PRECIPITATION WILL
INITIALLY DEVELOP IN THE FORM OF RAIN OR MIXED RAIN/SNOW ACROSS
CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS...WITH PRECIPITATION TRANSITIONING TO
MOSTLY SNOW THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS WILL BE AROUND AN
INCH OR LESS. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT STARTING
WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN AND NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA...WITH WINTER STORM WARNINGS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST AREA. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE
MID TO UPPER 20S NORTH...TO THE LOWER TO MID 30S DOWNEAST. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 30S
NORTH...TO THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 DOWNEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON THE SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODELS HAVE COME INTO
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT. HEAVIEST PERIOD OF SNOW WILL BE DURING THE
EVENING, BUT EVEN THEN, THIS IS NOT A PARTICULARLY INTENSE SYSTEM
AND SNOWFALL RATES SHOULDN`T BE MUCH MORE THAN ONE INCH PER HOUR
AT MOST. HOWEVER, IT IS HIGH IMPACT BECAUSE OF IT OCCURRING
DURING SUCH A HEAVY TRAVEL TIME.

PRECIPITATION TYPE SHOULD BE ALL SNOW FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SNOW
RATIOS WON`T BE THAT GREAT THOUGH, RANGING FROM AROUND 8 TO 1
ALONG THE COAST TO 13 TO 1 FURTHER INLAND. PART OF THE REASON FOR
THE POOR SNOW RATIOS IS FAIRLY WARM AIR ALOFT ALOFT. THE AIR
SHOULDN`T BE WARM ENOUGH FOR FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET PROBLEMS, BUT
IT ALSO WON`T BE GREAT FOR SNOWFLAKE GROWTH IN THE AREAS WITH THE
HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION (DOWNEAST).

SNOW TAPERS OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THURSDAY MORNING. MODELS HAVE
SPED UP THE END OF THE STORM JUST A TOUCH. TRAVEL MIDDAY THURSDAY
INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY EASIER THAN THURSDAY
MORNING.

COLDER AIR MOVES IN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. NOTHING MORE THAN A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA...A
SURFACE HIGH WILL BE BUILDING INTO AREA. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL MOVE EAST OF MAINE AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. A NEW LOW OVER
LAKE SUPERIOR...AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONT EXTENDING EAST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. BY SAT MRNG THE NEW LOW MOVES EAST TO NRN
LAKE MICHIGAN...THE WARM FRONT MOVES EAST TO VT/NH. BY MID DAY
SAT...THE GFS MOVES THE WARM FRONT INTO WRN ME...THE ECMWF SLOWS
THE EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE WARM FRONT KEEPING IT OVER NH. BY SAT
EVNG...THE GFS MOVES THE LOW JUST NW OF QUEBEC CITY AND THE WARM
FRONT TO ERN ME...THE ECMWF MOVES THE LOW TO JAMES BAY AND MOVES
THE WARM FRONT INTO WRN ME. THE GFS AND ECMWF WILL REMAIN OUT OF
FAZE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH THE ECMWF LAGGING 6 TO 12
HRS BEHIND THE GFS. EARLY SUN MRNG THE GFS SHOWS A LOW OVER LAKE
ONTARIO...ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA. SUN MRNG THE WARM FRONT MOVES INTO SW ME. BY MON MRNG BOTH
THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THIS SYSTEM HAS MOVED EAST OF THE AREA.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER TROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD.

LOADED THE SUPERBLEND THROUGH THE PERIOD...ADDED 15 PERCENT TO
WINDS FOR GUST OVER LAND 30 PERCENT FOR WINDS OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. CONDITIONS WILL THEN LOWER TO MVFR/IFR
LEVELS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

SHORT AND LONG TERM...IFR OR LOWER AREAWIDE IN SNOW WEDNESDAY
NIGHT, IMPROVING TO VFR BY MIDDAY THURSDAY. GENERALLY VFR THURSDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR ON THE
WATERS TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. VISIBILITIES WILL LOWER IN
DEVELOPING RAIN WEDNESDAY.

SHORT TERM: ISSUED GALE WARNING FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR STRONG
NORTHERLY WINDS. THE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DIMINISH DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY, AS WILL THE SEAS.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO 9 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR MEZ001>004-010.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO 9 AM EST THURSDAY
     FOR MEZ005-006-011-015>017-029>032.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 9 PM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HEWITT/NORCROSS
SHORT TERM...FOISY
LONG TERM...FOISY
AVIATION...HEWITT/NORCROSS/FOISY
MARINE...HEWITT/NORCROSS/FOISY



000
FXUS61 KCAR 260016
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
716 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE
WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST OF THE GULF OF MAINE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THEN
EXIT ACROSS THE MARITIMES THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
710 PM UPDATE...ADJUSTED THE SKY CONDITIONS TO SHOW PARTIAL
CLEARING ACROSS THE DOWNEAST AND CENTRAL AREAS W/CLOUDS STILL
HOLDING ON ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS. WINDS WILL BE COMING DOWN
AND ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE GUSTS TO CUT THEM BACK. SURFACEANALYSIS
SHOWED A TROF W/COOLER AIR FILTERING INTO THE REGION. COLD FRONT
W/A SIGNIFICANT SHOT OF COLD AIR STILL RESIDING BACK ACROSS
WESTERN QUEBEC.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY.
INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
TOWARD THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MAINE WEDNESDAY. CLOUD COVER WILL
INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY. PRECIPITATION WILL
THEN EXPAND NORTHWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS
PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW. BASED ON CRITICAL
THICKNESSES AND BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES PRECIPITATION WILL
INITIALLY DEVELOP IN THE FORM OF RAIN OR MIXED RAIN/SNOW ACROSS
CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS...WITH PRECIPITATION TRANSITIONING TO
MOSTLY SNOW THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS WILL BE AROUND AN
INCH OR LESS. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT STARTING
WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN AND NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA...WITH WINTER STORM WARNINGS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST AREA. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE
MID TO UPPER 20S NORTH...TO THE LOWER TO MID 30S DOWNEAST. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 30S
NORTH...TO THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 DOWNEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON THE SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODELS HAVE COME INTO
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT. HEAVIEST PERIOD OF SNOW WILL BE DURING THE
EVENING, BUT EVEN THEN, THIS IS NOT A PARTICULARLY INTENSE SYSTEM
AND SNOWFALL RATES SHOULDN`T BE MUCH MORE THAN ONE INCH PER HOUR
AT MOST. HOWEVER, IT IS HIGH IMPACT BECAUSE OF IT OCCURRING
DURING SUCH A HEAVY TRAVEL TIME.

PRECIPITATION TYPE SHOULD BE ALL SNOW FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SNOW
RATIOS WON`T BE THAT GREAT THOUGH, RANGING FROM AROUND 8 TO 1
ALONG THE COAST TO 13 TO 1 FURTHER INLAND. PART OF THE REASON FOR
THE POOR SNOW RATIOS IS FAIRLY WARM AIR ALOFT ALOFT. THE AIR
SHOULDN`T BE WARM ENOUGH FOR FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET PROBLEMS, BUT
IT ALSO WON`T BE GREAT FOR SNOWFLAKE GROWTH IN THE AREAS WITH THE
HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION (DOWNEAST).

SNOW TAPERS OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THURSDAY MORNING. MODELS HAVE
SPED UP THE END OF THE STORM JUST A TOUCH. TRAVEL MIDDAY THURSDAY
INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY EASIER THAN THURSDAY
MORNING.

COLDER AIR MOVES IN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. NOTHING MORE THAN A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA...A
SURFACE HIGH WILL BE BUILDING INTO AREA. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL MOVE EAST OF MAINE AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. A NEW LOW OVER
LAKE SUPERIOR...AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONT EXTENDING EAST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. BY SAT MRNG THE NEW LOW MOVES EAST TO NRN
LAKE MICHIGAN...THE WARM FRONT MOVES EAST TO VT/NH. BY MID DAY
SAT...THE GFS MOVES THE WARM FRONT INTO WRN ME...THE ECMWF SLOWS
THE EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE WARM FRONT KEEPING IT OVER NH. BY SAT
EVNG...THE GFS MOVES THE LOW JUST NW OF QUEBEC CITY AND THE WARM
FRONT TO ERN ME...THE ECMWF MOVES THE LOW TO JAMES BAY AND MOVES
THE WARM FRONT INTO WRN ME. THE GFS AND ECMWF WILL REMAIN OUT OF
FAZE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH THE ECMWF LAGGING 6 TO 12
HRS BEHIND THE GFS. EARLY SUN MRNG THE GFS SHOWS A LOW OVER LAKE
ONTARIO...ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA. SUN MRNG THE WARM FRONT MOVES INTO SW ME. BY MON MRNG BOTH
THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THIS SYSTEM HAS MOVED EAST OF THE AREA.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER TROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD.

LOADED THE SUPERBLEND THROUGH THE PERIOD...ADDED 15 PERCENT TO
WINDS FOR GUST OVER LAND 30 PERCENT FOR WINDS OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. CONDITIONS WILL THEN LOWER TO MVFR/IFR
LEVELS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

SHORT AND LONG TERM...IFR OR LOWER AREAWIDE IN SNOW WEDNESDAY
NIGHT, IMPROVING TO VFR BY MIDDAY THURSDAY. GENERALLY VFR THURSDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR ON THE
WATERS TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. VISIBILITIES WILL LOWER IN
DEVELOPING RAIN WEDNESDAY.

SHORT TERM: ISSUED GALE WARNING FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR STRONG
NORTHERLY WINDS. THE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DIMINISH DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY, AS WILL THE SEAS.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO 9 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR MEZ001>004-010.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO 9 AM EST THURSDAY
     FOR MEZ005-006-011-015>017-029>032.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 9 PM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HEWITT/NORCROSS
SHORT TERM...FOISY
LONG TERM...FOISY
AVIATION...HEWITT/NORCROSS/FOISY
MARINE...HEWITT/NORCROSS/FOISY



000
FXUS61 KCAR 260016
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
716 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE
WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST OF THE GULF OF MAINE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THEN
EXIT ACROSS THE MARITIMES THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
710 PM UPDATE...ADJUSTED THE SKY CONDITIONS TO SHOW PARTIAL
CLEARING ACROSS THE DOWNEAST AND CENTRAL AREAS W/CLOUDS STILL
HOLDING ON ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS. WINDS WILL BE COMING DOWN
AND ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE GUSTS TO CUT THEM BACK. SURFACEANALYSIS
SHOWED A TROF W/COOLER AIR FILTERING INTO THE REGION. COLD FRONT
W/A SIGNIFICANT SHOT OF COLD AIR STILL RESIDING BACK ACROSS
WESTERN QUEBEC.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY.
INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
TOWARD THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MAINE WEDNESDAY. CLOUD COVER WILL
INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY. PRECIPITATION WILL
THEN EXPAND NORTHWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS
PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW. BASED ON CRITICAL
THICKNESSES AND BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES PRECIPITATION WILL
INITIALLY DEVELOP IN THE FORM OF RAIN OR MIXED RAIN/SNOW ACROSS
CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS...WITH PRECIPITATION TRANSITIONING TO
MOSTLY SNOW THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS WILL BE AROUND AN
INCH OR LESS. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT STARTING
WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN AND NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA...WITH WINTER STORM WARNINGS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST AREA. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE
MID TO UPPER 20S NORTH...TO THE LOWER TO MID 30S DOWNEAST. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 30S
NORTH...TO THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 DOWNEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON THE SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODELS HAVE COME INTO
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT. HEAVIEST PERIOD OF SNOW WILL BE DURING THE
EVENING, BUT EVEN THEN, THIS IS NOT A PARTICULARLY INTENSE SYSTEM
AND SNOWFALL RATES SHOULDN`T BE MUCH MORE THAN ONE INCH PER HOUR
AT MOST. HOWEVER, IT IS HIGH IMPACT BECAUSE OF IT OCCURRING
DURING SUCH A HEAVY TRAVEL TIME.

PRECIPITATION TYPE SHOULD BE ALL SNOW FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SNOW
RATIOS WON`T BE THAT GREAT THOUGH, RANGING FROM AROUND 8 TO 1
ALONG THE COAST TO 13 TO 1 FURTHER INLAND. PART OF THE REASON FOR
THE POOR SNOW RATIOS IS FAIRLY WARM AIR ALOFT ALOFT. THE AIR
SHOULDN`T BE WARM ENOUGH FOR FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET PROBLEMS, BUT
IT ALSO WON`T BE GREAT FOR SNOWFLAKE GROWTH IN THE AREAS WITH THE
HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION (DOWNEAST).

SNOW TAPERS OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THURSDAY MORNING. MODELS HAVE
SPED UP THE END OF THE STORM JUST A TOUCH. TRAVEL MIDDAY THURSDAY
INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY EASIER THAN THURSDAY
MORNING.

COLDER AIR MOVES IN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. NOTHING MORE THAN A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA...A
SURFACE HIGH WILL BE BUILDING INTO AREA. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL MOVE EAST OF MAINE AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. A NEW LOW OVER
LAKE SUPERIOR...AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONT EXTENDING EAST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. BY SAT MRNG THE NEW LOW MOVES EAST TO NRN
LAKE MICHIGAN...THE WARM FRONT MOVES EAST TO VT/NH. BY MID DAY
SAT...THE GFS MOVES THE WARM FRONT INTO WRN ME...THE ECMWF SLOWS
THE EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE WARM FRONT KEEPING IT OVER NH. BY SAT
EVNG...THE GFS MOVES THE LOW JUST NW OF QUEBEC CITY AND THE WARM
FRONT TO ERN ME...THE ECMWF MOVES THE LOW TO JAMES BAY AND MOVES
THE WARM FRONT INTO WRN ME. THE GFS AND ECMWF WILL REMAIN OUT OF
FAZE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH THE ECMWF LAGGING 6 TO 12
HRS BEHIND THE GFS. EARLY SUN MRNG THE GFS SHOWS A LOW OVER LAKE
ONTARIO...ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA. SUN MRNG THE WARM FRONT MOVES INTO SW ME. BY MON MRNG BOTH
THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THIS SYSTEM HAS MOVED EAST OF THE AREA.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER TROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD.

LOADED THE SUPERBLEND THROUGH THE PERIOD...ADDED 15 PERCENT TO
WINDS FOR GUST OVER LAND 30 PERCENT FOR WINDS OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. CONDITIONS WILL THEN LOWER TO MVFR/IFR
LEVELS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

SHORT AND LONG TERM...IFR OR LOWER AREAWIDE IN SNOW WEDNESDAY
NIGHT, IMPROVING TO VFR BY MIDDAY THURSDAY. GENERALLY VFR THURSDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR ON THE
WATERS TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. VISIBILITIES WILL LOWER IN
DEVELOPING RAIN WEDNESDAY.

SHORT TERM: ISSUED GALE WARNING FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR STRONG
NORTHERLY WINDS. THE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DIMINISH DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY, AS WILL THE SEAS.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO 9 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR MEZ001>004-010.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO 9 AM EST THURSDAY
     FOR MEZ005-006-011-015>017-029>032.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 9 PM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HEWITT/NORCROSS
SHORT TERM...FOISY
LONG TERM...FOISY
AVIATION...HEWITT/NORCROSS/FOISY
MARINE...HEWITT/NORCROSS/FOISY



000
FXUS61 KCAR 260016
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
716 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE
WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST OF THE GULF OF MAINE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THEN
EXIT ACROSS THE MARITIMES THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
710 PM UPDATE...ADJUSTED THE SKY CONDITIONS TO SHOW PARTIAL
CLEARING ACROSS THE DOWNEAST AND CENTRAL AREAS W/CLOUDS STILL
HOLDING ON ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS. WINDS WILL BE COMING DOWN
AND ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE GUSTS TO CUT THEM BACK. SURFACEANALYSIS
SHOWED A TROF W/COOLER AIR FILTERING INTO THE REGION. COLD FRONT
W/A SIGNIFICANT SHOT OF COLD AIR STILL RESIDING BACK ACROSS
WESTERN QUEBEC.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY.
INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
TOWARD THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MAINE WEDNESDAY. CLOUD COVER WILL
INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY. PRECIPITATION WILL
THEN EXPAND NORTHWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS
PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW. BASED ON CRITICAL
THICKNESSES AND BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES PRECIPITATION WILL
INITIALLY DEVELOP IN THE FORM OF RAIN OR MIXED RAIN/SNOW ACROSS
CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS...WITH PRECIPITATION TRANSITIONING TO
MOSTLY SNOW THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS WILL BE AROUND AN
INCH OR LESS. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT STARTING
WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN AND NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA...WITH WINTER STORM WARNINGS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST AREA. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE
MID TO UPPER 20S NORTH...TO THE LOWER TO MID 30S DOWNEAST. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 30S
NORTH...TO THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 DOWNEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON THE SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODELS HAVE COME INTO
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT. HEAVIEST PERIOD OF SNOW WILL BE DURING THE
EVENING, BUT EVEN THEN, THIS IS NOT A PARTICULARLY INTENSE SYSTEM
AND SNOWFALL RATES SHOULDN`T BE MUCH MORE THAN ONE INCH PER HOUR
AT MOST. HOWEVER, IT IS HIGH IMPACT BECAUSE OF IT OCCURRING
DURING SUCH A HEAVY TRAVEL TIME.

PRECIPITATION TYPE SHOULD BE ALL SNOW FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SNOW
RATIOS WON`T BE THAT GREAT THOUGH, RANGING FROM AROUND 8 TO 1
ALONG THE COAST TO 13 TO 1 FURTHER INLAND. PART OF THE REASON FOR
THE POOR SNOW RATIOS IS FAIRLY WARM AIR ALOFT ALOFT. THE AIR
SHOULDN`T BE WARM ENOUGH FOR FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET PROBLEMS, BUT
IT ALSO WON`T BE GREAT FOR SNOWFLAKE GROWTH IN THE AREAS WITH THE
HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION (DOWNEAST).

SNOW TAPERS OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THURSDAY MORNING. MODELS HAVE
SPED UP THE END OF THE STORM JUST A TOUCH. TRAVEL MIDDAY THURSDAY
INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY EASIER THAN THURSDAY
MORNING.

COLDER AIR MOVES IN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. NOTHING MORE THAN A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA...A
SURFACE HIGH WILL BE BUILDING INTO AREA. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL MOVE EAST OF MAINE AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. A NEW LOW OVER
LAKE SUPERIOR...AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONT EXTENDING EAST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. BY SAT MRNG THE NEW LOW MOVES EAST TO NRN
LAKE MICHIGAN...THE WARM FRONT MOVES EAST TO VT/NH. BY MID DAY
SAT...THE GFS MOVES THE WARM FRONT INTO WRN ME...THE ECMWF SLOWS
THE EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE WARM FRONT KEEPING IT OVER NH. BY SAT
EVNG...THE GFS MOVES THE LOW JUST NW OF QUEBEC CITY AND THE WARM
FRONT TO ERN ME...THE ECMWF MOVES THE LOW TO JAMES BAY AND MOVES
THE WARM FRONT INTO WRN ME. THE GFS AND ECMWF WILL REMAIN OUT OF
FAZE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH THE ECMWF LAGGING 6 TO 12
HRS BEHIND THE GFS. EARLY SUN MRNG THE GFS SHOWS A LOW OVER LAKE
ONTARIO...ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA. SUN MRNG THE WARM FRONT MOVES INTO SW ME. BY MON MRNG BOTH
THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THIS SYSTEM HAS MOVED EAST OF THE AREA.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER TROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD.

LOADED THE SUPERBLEND THROUGH THE PERIOD...ADDED 15 PERCENT TO
WINDS FOR GUST OVER LAND 30 PERCENT FOR WINDS OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. CONDITIONS WILL THEN LOWER TO MVFR/IFR
LEVELS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

SHORT AND LONG TERM...IFR OR LOWER AREAWIDE IN SNOW WEDNESDAY
NIGHT, IMPROVING TO VFR BY MIDDAY THURSDAY. GENERALLY VFR THURSDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR ON THE
WATERS TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. VISIBILITIES WILL LOWER IN
DEVELOPING RAIN WEDNESDAY.

SHORT TERM: ISSUED GALE WARNING FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR STRONG
NORTHERLY WINDS. THE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DIMINISH DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY, AS WILL THE SEAS.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO 9 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR MEZ001>004-010.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO 9 AM EST THURSDAY
     FOR MEZ005-006-011-015>017-029>032.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 9 PM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HEWITT/NORCROSS
SHORT TERM...FOISY
LONG TERM...FOISY
AVIATION...HEWITT/NORCROSS/FOISY
MARINE...HEWITT/NORCROSS/FOISY



000
FXUS61 KCAR 252148
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
448 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST OF THE GULF OF MAINE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THEN EXIT ACROSS THE MARITIMES THURSDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST FRIDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WITH PARTLY/MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AND
PARTLY CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES DOWNEAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST EARLY WEDNESDAY. INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK
FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TOWARD THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MAINE
WEDNESDAY. CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY
WEDNESDAY. PRECIPITATION WILL THEN EXPAND NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE FORM
OF SNOW. BASED ON CRITICAL THICKNESSES AND BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPERATURES PRECIPITATION WILL INITIALLY DEVELOP IN THE FORM OF
RAIN OR MIXED RAIN/SNOW ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS...WITH
PRECIPITATION TRANSITIONING TO MOSTLY SNOW THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS WILL BE AROUND AN INCH OR LESS. WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT STARTING WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS
NORTHERN AND NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH
WINTER STORM WARNINGS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA.
LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 20S
NORTH...TO THE LOWER TO MID 30S DOWNEAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 30S NORTH...TO THE
UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 DOWNEAST.
&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON THE SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODELS HAVE COME INTO
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT. HEAVIEST PERIOD OF SNOW WILL BE DURING THE
EVENING, BUT EVEN THEN, THIS IS NOT A PARTICULARLY INTENSE SYSTEM
AND SNOWFALL RATES SHOULDN`T BE MUCH MORE THAN ONE INCH PER HOUR
AT MOST. HOWEVER, IT IS HIGH IMPACT BECAUSE OF IT OCCURRING
DURING SUCH A HEAVY TRAVEL TIME.

PRECIPITATION TYPE SHOULD BE ALL SNOW FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SNOW
RATIOS WON`T BE THAT GREAT THOUGH, RANGING FROM AROUND 8 TO 1
ALONG THE COAST TO 13 TO 1 FURTHER INLAND. PART OF THE REASON FOR
THE POOR SNOW RATIOS IS FAIRLY WARM AIR ALOFT ALOFT. THE AIR
SHOULDN`T BE WARM ENOUGH FOR FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET PROBLEMS, BUT
IT ALSO WON`T BE GREAT FOR SNOWFLAKE GROWTH IN THE AREAS WITH THE
HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION (DOWNEAST).

SNOW TAPERS OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THURSDAY MORNING. MODELS HAVE
SPED UP THE END OF THE STORM JUST A TOUCH. TRAVEL MIDDAY THURSDAY
INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY EASIER THAN THURSDAY
MORNING.

COLDER AIR MOVES IN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. NOTHING MORE THAN A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY.
&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA...A
SURFACE HIGH WILL BE BUILDING INTO AREA. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL MOVE EAST OF MAINE AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. A NEW LOW OVER
LAKE SUPERIOR...AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONT EXTENDING EAST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. BY SAT MRNG THE NEW LOW MOVES EAST TO NRN
LAKE MICHIGAN...THE WARM FRONT MOVES EAST TO VT/NH. BY MID DAY
SAT...THE GFS MOVES THE WARM FRONT INTO WRN ME...THE ECMWF SLOWS
THE EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE WARM FRONT KEEPING IT OVER NH. BY SAT
EVNG...THE GFS MOVES THE LOW JUST NW OF QUEBEC CITY AND THE WARM
FRONT TO ERN ME...THE ECMWF MOVES THE LOW TO JAMES BAY AND MOVES
THE WARM FRONT INTO WRN ME. THE GFS AND ECMWF WILL REMAIN OUT OF
FAZE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH THE ECMWF LAGGING 6 TO 12
HRS BEHIND THE GFS. EARLY SUN MRNG THE GFS SHOWS A LOW OVER LAKE
ONTARIO...ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA. SUN MRNG THE WARM FRONT MOVES INTO SW ME. BY MON MRNG BOTH
THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THIS SYSTEM HAS MOVED EAST OF THE AREA.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER TROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD.

LOADED THE SUPERBLEND THROUGH THE PERIOD...ADDED 15 PERCENT TO
WINDS FOR GUST OVER LAND 30 PERCENT FOR WINDS OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS.
&&

.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. CONDITIONS WILL THEN LOWER TO MVFR/IFR
LEVELS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

SHORT AND LONG TERM...IFR OR LOWER AREAWIDE IN SNOW WEDNESDAY
NIGHT, IMPROVING TO VFR BY MIDDAY THURSDAY. GENERALLY VFR THURSDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR ON THE
WATERS TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. VISIBILITIES WILL LOWER IN
DEVELOPING RAIN WEDNESDAY.

SHORT TERM: ISSUED GALE WARNING FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR STRONG
NORTHERLY WINDS. THE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DIMINISH DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY, AS WILL THE SEAS.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO 9 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR MEZ001>004-010.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO 9 AM EST THURSDAY
     FOR MEZ005-006-011-015>017-029>032.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 9 PM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...NORCROSS
SHORT TERM...FOISY
LONG TERM...NORTON
AVIATION...NORCROSS/FOISY
MARINE...NORCROSS/FOISY



000
FXUS61 KCAR 252148
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
448 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST OF THE GULF OF MAINE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THEN EXIT ACROSS THE MARITIMES THURSDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST FRIDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WITH PARTLY/MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AND
PARTLY CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES DOWNEAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST EARLY WEDNESDAY. INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK
FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TOWARD THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MAINE
WEDNESDAY. CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY
WEDNESDAY. PRECIPITATION WILL THEN EXPAND NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE FORM
OF SNOW. BASED ON CRITICAL THICKNESSES AND BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPERATURES PRECIPITATION WILL INITIALLY DEVELOP IN THE FORM OF
RAIN OR MIXED RAIN/SNOW ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS...WITH
PRECIPITATION TRANSITIONING TO MOSTLY SNOW THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS WILL BE AROUND AN INCH OR LESS. WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT STARTING WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS
NORTHERN AND NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH
WINTER STORM WARNINGS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA.
LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 20S
NORTH...TO THE LOWER TO MID 30S DOWNEAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 30S NORTH...TO THE
UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 DOWNEAST.
&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON THE SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODELS HAVE COME INTO
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT. HEAVIEST PERIOD OF SNOW WILL BE DURING THE
EVENING, BUT EVEN THEN, THIS IS NOT A PARTICULARLY INTENSE SYSTEM
AND SNOWFALL RATES SHOULDN`T BE MUCH MORE THAN ONE INCH PER HOUR
AT MOST. HOWEVER, IT IS HIGH IMPACT BECAUSE OF IT OCCURRING
DURING SUCH A HEAVY TRAVEL TIME.

PRECIPITATION TYPE SHOULD BE ALL SNOW FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SNOW
RATIOS WON`T BE THAT GREAT THOUGH, RANGING FROM AROUND 8 TO 1
ALONG THE COAST TO 13 TO 1 FURTHER INLAND. PART OF THE REASON FOR
THE POOR SNOW RATIOS IS FAIRLY WARM AIR ALOFT ALOFT. THE AIR
SHOULDN`T BE WARM ENOUGH FOR FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET PROBLEMS, BUT
IT ALSO WON`T BE GREAT FOR SNOWFLAKE GROWTH IN THE AREAS WITH THE
HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION (DOWNEAST).

SNOW TAPERS OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THURSDAY MORNING. MODELS HAVE
SPED UP THE END OF THE STORM JUST A TOUCH. TRAVEL MIDDAY THURSDAY
INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY EASIER THAN THURSDAY
MORNING.

COLDER AIR MOVES IN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. NOTHING MORE THAN A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY.
&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA...A
SURFACE HIGH WILL BE BUILDING INTO AREA. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL MOVE EAST OF MAINE AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. A NEW LOW OVER
LAKE SUPERIOR...AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONT EXTENDING EAST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. BY SAT MRNG THE NEW LOW MOVES EAST TO NRN
LAKE MICHIGAN...THE WARM FRONT MOVES EAST TO VT/NH. BY MID DAY
SAT...THE GFS MOVES THE WARM FRONT INTO WRN ME...THE ECMWF SLOWS
THE EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE WARM FRONT KEEPING IT OVER NH. BY SAT
EVNG...THE GFS MOVES THE LOW JUST NW OF QUEBEC CITY AND THE WARM
FRONT TO ERN ME...THE ECMWF MOVES THE LOW TO JAMES BAY AND MOVES
THE WARM FRONT INTO WRN ME. THE GFS AND ECMWF WILL REMAIN OUT OF
FAZE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH THE ECMWF LAGGING 6 TO 12
HRS BEHIND THE GFS. EARLY SUN MRNG THE GFS SHOWS A LOW OVER LAKE
ONTARIO...ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA. SUN MRNG THE WARM FRONT MOVES INTO SW ME. BY MON MRNG BOTH
THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THIS SYSTEM HAS MOVED EAST OF THE AREA.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER TROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD.

LOADED THE SUPERBLEND THROUGH THE PERIOD...ADDED 15 PERCENT TO
WINDS FOR GUST OVER LAND 30 PERCENT FOR WINDS OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS.
&&

.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. CONDITIONS WILL THEN LOWER TO MVFR/IFR
LEVELS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

SHORT AND LONG TERM...IFR OR LOWER AREAWIDE IN SNOW WEDNESDAY
NIGHT, IMPROVING TO VFR BY MIDDAY THURSDAY. GENERALLY VFR THURSDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR ON THE
WATERS TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. VISIBILITIES WILL LOWER IN
DEVELOPING RAIN WEDNESDAY.

SHORT TERM: ISSUED GALE WARNING FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR STRONG
NORTHERLY WINDS. THE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DIMINISH DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY, AS WILL THE SEAS.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO 9 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR MEZ001>004-010.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO 9 AM EST THURSDAY
     FOR MEZ005-006-011-015>017-029>032.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 9 PM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...NORCROSS
SHORT TERM...FOISY
LONG TERM...NORTON
AVIATION...NORCROSS/FOISY
MARINE...NORCROSS/FOISY




000
FXUS61 KCAR 252148
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
448 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST OF THE GULF OF MAINE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THEN EXIT ACROSS THE MARITIMES THURSDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST FRIDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WITH PARTLY/MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AND
PARTLY CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES DOWNEAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST EARLY WEDNESDAY. INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK
FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TOWARD THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MAINE
WEDNESDAY. CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY
WEDNESDAY. PRECIPITATION WILL THEN EXPAND NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE FORM
OF SNOW. BASED ON CRITICAL THICKNESSES AND BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPERATURES PRECIPITATION WILL INITIALLY DEVELOP IN THE FORM OF
RAIN OR MIXED RAIN/SNOW ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS...WITH
PRECIPITATION TRANSITIONING TO MOSTLY SNOW THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS WILL BE AROUND AN INCH OR LESS. WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT STARTING WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS
NORTHERN AND NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH
WINTER STORM WARNINGS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA.
LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 20S
NORTH...TO THE LOWER TO MID 30S DOWNEAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 30S NORTH...TO THE
UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 DOWNEAST.
&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON THE SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODELS HAVE COME INTO
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT. HEAVIEST PERIOD OF SNOW WILL BE DURING THE
EVENING, BUT EVEN THEN, THIS IS NOT A PARTICULARLY INTENSE SYSTEM
AND SNOWFALL RATES SHOULDN`T BE MUCH MORE THAN ONE INCH PER HOUR
AT MOST. HOWEVER, IT IS HIGH IMPACT BECAUSE OF IT OCCURRING
DURING SUCH A HEAVY TRAVEL TIME.

PRECIPITATION TYPE SHOULD BE ALL SNOW FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SNOW
RATIOS WON`T BE THAT GREAT THOUGH, RANGING FROM AROUND 8 TO 1
ALONG THE COAST TO 13 TO 1 FURTHER INLAND. PART OF THE REASON FOR
THE POOR SNOW RATIOS IS FAIRLY WARM AIR ALOFT ALOFT. THE AIR
SHOULDN`T BE WARM ENOUGH FOR FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET PROBLEMS, BUT
IT ALSO WON`T BE GREAT FOR SNOWFLAKE GROWTH IN THE AREAS WITH THE
HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION (DOWNEAST).

SNOW TAPERS OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THURSDAY MORNING. MODELS HAVE
SPED UP THE END OF THE STORM JUST A TOUCH. TRAVEL MIDDAY THURSDAY
INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY EASIER THAN THURSDAY
MORNING.

COLDER AIR MOVES IN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. NOTHING MORE THAN A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY.
&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA...A
SURFACE HIGH WILL BE BUILDING INTO AREA. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL MOVE EAST OF MAINE AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. A NEW LOW OVER
LAKE SUPERIOR...AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONT EXTENDING EAST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. BY SAT MRNG THE NEW LOW MOVES EAST TO NRN
LAKE MICHIGAN...THE WARM FRONT MOVES EAST TO VT/NH. BY MID DAY
SAT...THE GFS MOVES THE WARM FRONT INTO WRN ME...THE ECMWF SLOWS
THE EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE WARM FRONT KEEPING IT OVER NH. BY SAT
EVNG...THE GFS MOVES THE LOW JUST NW OF QUEBEC CITY AND THE WARM
FRONT TO ERN ME...THE ECMWF MOVES THE LOW TO JAMES BAY AND MOVES
THE WARM FRONT INTO WRN ME. THE GFS AND ECMWF WILL REMAIN OUT OF
FAZE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH THE ECMWF LAGGING 6 TO 12
HRS BEHIND THE GFS. EARLY SUN MRNG THE GFS SHOWS A LOW OVER LAKE
ONTARIO...ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA. SUN MRNG THE WARM FRONT MOVES INTO SW ME. BY MON MRNG BOTH
THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THIS SYSTEM HAS MOVED EAST OF THE AREA.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER TROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD.

LOADED THE SUPERBLEND THROUGH THE PERIOD...ADDED 15 PERCENT TO
WINDS FOR GUST OVER LAND 30 PERCENT FOR WINDS OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS.
&&

.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. CONDITIONS WILL THEN LOWER TO MVFR/IFR
LEVELS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

SHORT AND LONG TERM...IFR OR LOWER AREAWIDE IN SNOW WEDNESDAY
NIGHT, IMPROVING TO VFR BY MIDDAY THURSDAY. GENERALLY VFR THURSDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR ON THE
WATERS TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. VISIBILITIES WILL LOWER IN
DEVELOPING RAIN WEDNESDAY.

SHORT TERM: ISSUED GALE WARNING FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR STRONG
NORTHERLY WINDS. THE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DIMINISH DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY, AS WILL THE SEAS.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO 9 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR MEZ001>004-010.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO 9 AM EST THURSDAY
     FOR MEZ005-006-011-015>017-029>032.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 9 PM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...NORCROSS
SHORT TERM...FOISY
LONG TERM...NORTON
AVIATION...NORCROSS/FOISY
MARINE...NORCROSS/FOISY




000
FXUS61 KGYX 252039
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
339 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST ON WEDNESDAY AND TRACK NORTHEAST TO JUST SOUTH OF CAPE COD
BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE COASTAL LOW WILL CONTINUE NORTHEAST INTO
THE MARITIMES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
LINGER OVER THE REGION ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY. A WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO THE REGION FROM
THE SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON
SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
NOT MUCH TO TALK ABOUT TONIGHT...AS FOCUS REMAINS ON THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY BE ON THE INCREASE TONIGHT
AS A COLD FNT CONTINUES TO OOZE SWD. WILL SEE LITTLE TEMP
ADVECTION WITH THIS FEATURE...BUT IMPORTANTLY FOR WED WE WILL SEE
DEW POINT ADVECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
***SIGNIFICANT COASTAL STORM TO AFFECT HOLIDAY TRAVEL***

MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOW IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON STORM TRACK...WITH
THE ECMWF...GFS...AND NAM...ALL MOVING JUST SLIGHTLY NW OF THE
40N/70W BENCHMARK. THE CMC REMAINS THE ERN OUTLIER...SO HAVE
TROUBLE PUTTING MUCH STOCK IN ITS OUTPUT ATTM.

THIS LEADS TO A FAIRLY CONSISTENT QPF FORECAST AS WELL. THE GFS
AND ECMWF ARE CLOSE TO OR JUST OVER 1 INCH LIQUID FOR COASTAL SWRN
ME. IF YOU TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE KNOWN BIAS FOR THE NAM TO GIVE
TOO MUCH QPF ON THE COLD SIDE OF LOW PRES SYSTEMS...AND TAKE 2/3
OF ITS QPF...YOU ALSO GET JUST OVER 1 INCH QPF FOR THOSE SAME
AREAS. DIFFERENCES ARISE THE FARTHER NW ONE HEADS FROM THE COAST.
FOR THIS REASON THERE REMAINS A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE MTNS ON
AMOUNTS.

PCPN HAS SPED UP ON MODEL GUIDANCE...REACHING ALL OF THE SRN HALF
OF THE CWFA BY 18Z. SO THIS FORECAST REPRESENTS A SLIGHTLY BUMP UP
IN TIMING FROM THE PREVIOUS SHIFT. THIS MAKES FOR A TRICKY TEMP
FORECAST. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT HIGHS OCCUR VERY EARLY IN THE
DAY...POSSIBLY EVEN NEAR DAWN FOR SOME SRN NH AREAS. FROM THAT
POINT FORWARD...TEMPS LIKELY FALL DURING THE DAY AS PCPN MOVES
NWD. THIS IS MOSTLY DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED DRY ADVECTION
OCCURRING OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. AS PCPN FALLS TEMPS WILL WET BULB
DOWN TO NEAR FREEZING QUICKLY. HI-RES GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE
NAM12...ARW AND NMM WRF MODELS SHOW THIS IN THEIR 2 M TEMP OUTPUT.
FAVORED A BLEND OF 2 M TEMPS RATHER THAN MOS FOR HOURLY TEMP
TREND.

AS THINGS STAND THIS AFTERNOON...GUIDANCE ALSO INDICATES MAINLY N
TO NNE WINDS AT THE SFC. THIS IS COUPLED WITH NWLY AGEOSTROPHIC
FLOW...WHICH WILL ACT TO KEEP WINDS MAINLY OFFSHORE THRU THE
EVENT. FOR THIS REASON I FEEL THAT COASTAL FNT WILL SET UP
OFFSHORE AS WELL...AND MARINE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL NOT BE A
SIGNIFICANT ISSUE. THE BIGGEST DIFFERENTIATOR BETWEEN RA AND SN
WILL BE INITIAL WET BULBING. SO ATTM THE FORECAST IS FOR
SIGNIFICANT SNWFL RIGHT TO THE COAST...ENOUGH TO IMPACT TRAVEL.
WITH MARGINAL TEMPS IT MAY ALSO BE WET AND HEAVY FOR A TIME...AND
SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES ARE POSSIBLE.

THIS LEADS TO ACTUAL FORECAST SNWFL AMOUNTS. IT IS STILL ROUGHLY
24 HOURS AWAY FROM THE BULK OF THE PCPN...SO THERE REMAINS SOME
NUANCES THAT COULD AFFECT SNWFL. FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW...MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENT WITH TRACKING MID LEVEL LOW CENTERS
VERY CLOSE TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. AT THE SAME TIME...700 MB
HEIGHTS TRY AND CLOSE OFF NEARLY OVERHEAD. THIS FAVORS A STRONG
BAND OF LIFT JUST ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE MID LEVEL LOW TRACK.
DEFORMATION AND FRONTOGENESIS PROGS ON THE ECMWF...GFS...AND
NAM AGREE WITH THIS PLACEMENT...FROM SRN NH TO JUST INLAND FROM
THE COAST OF WRN ME. AS THE MID LEVEL LOWS TAKE THIS TRACK...IT
WILL ALLOW SOME WARMTH ALOFT TO SNEAK NW. IT MAY NOT EVER GET
ABOVE FREEZING AT THESE LEVELS...BUT WARMING TO WITH A COUPLE OF
DEGREES OF FREEZING COULD LEAD TO POOR SN GROWTH FOR A TIME ALONG
THE COAST. SN RATIOS WERE ADJUSTED TO REFLECT THESE EXPECTED
OUTCOMES...LOWERED NEAR THE COAST...AND RAISED JUST INLAND WHERE
STRONGEST DEFORMATION BANDING IS LOCATED. IN ADDITION...WE HAVE
ALSO HAD VERY WARM TEMPS RECENTLY AND WILL START OFF WITH MARGINAL
TEMPS EARLY WED. THIS MAY LEAD TO A FALSE SENSE OF SECURITY
HOWEVER. WHEN STRONGEST LIFT COMES IN...DURING WED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...FORCING AND SOUNDINGS CONFIRM THAT SN MAY FALL HEAVILY
AT TIMES. WITH RATES POSSIBLY APPROACHING 1 INCH/HR IT WILL NOT
MATTER HOW WARM IT HAS BEEN...AND ACCUMULATION WILL OCCUR ON
ROADWAYS.

ONCE AGAIN...THE CONDITIONS WILL BE QUICKLY DETERIORATING AND
EXPECTED TO BE THE WORST WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING...COINCIDING
WITH THE BUSIEST TRAVEL TIMES. TRAVELERS SHOULD BE AT THEIR
DESTINATIONS BY WED AFTERNOON IF AT ALL POSSIBLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN FROM THE
WEST ON THANKSGIVING AS THE STORM DEPARTS INTO THE MARITIMES.
HOWEVER....A LARGE SCALE...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN TO OUR
WEST. 12Z MODEL SUITE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AT THIS TIME WITH THESE
LARGE SCALE FEATURES. HOWEVER...THE NEW EURO RUN DEPICTS A NEARLY
STATIONARY INVERTED TROUGH ALONG THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MAINE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THE SCENARIO WOULD KEEP SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE PORTLAND AREA FOR THE END OF THE WORKWEEK. OTHER
MODELS ARE NOT PICKING UP ON THIS NORLUN TROUGH TYPE FEATURE.
WILL SEE IF THIS FEATURE REMAINS ON THE FOLLOWUP MODEL RUNS.

THEREAFTER...VERY QUIET WITH A BRIEF WARM UP ON SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY
A STRONG COLD FRONT ON MONDAY. MODELS DIVERGE AS TO WHETHER A WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM ALONG THIS FRONT...AFFECTING NEW
ENGLAND. A LARGE AND CHILLY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
FOLLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THRU EARLY WED. CONDITIONS
RAPIDLY DETERIORATE FROM S TO N THRU WED AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS
WILL QUICKLY DROP TO IFR AND LOWER BY EVENING. COULD SEE SOME
BRIEF MIXING WITH RA AT KPSM AND KPWM...BEFORE A TRANSITION TO ALL
SNWFL. WINDS ALONG THE COAST WILL BE GUSTY FROM THE NNE...AROUND
25-30 KTS. CONDITIONS QUICKLY IMPROVE TO MVFR OR VFR THU AS LOW
PRES PULLS AWAY.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION IN THE LONG
TERM. THERE MAY BE LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS IN SCT SNOW SHOWERS
ALONG THE COAST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. MVFR CONDITIONS WITH A
FRONTAL PASSAGE NEXT MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...GALE WARNINGS IN EFFECT STARTING WED AFTERNOON.
COASTAL STORM WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE GULF OF ME...WITH A
BRIEF PERIOD OF GALE FORCE GUSTS. SCA WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED
FOLLOWING THE LOW PRES.

LONG TERM...WINDS WILL LIKELY REACH SCA CRITERIA LATE IN THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.  A SW WIND WILL VEER TO THE NW.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 AM WEDNESDAY TO 7 AM EST THURSDAY
     FOR MEZ012>014-018>028.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM WEDNESDAY TO 7 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR MEZ007>009.
NH...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 AM WEDNESDAY TO 7 AM EST THURSDAY
     FOR NHZ002>010-013-014.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM WEDNESDAY TO 7 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR NHZ001.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM WEDNESDAY TO 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

LEGRO/JC



000
FXUS61 KGYX 252039
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
339 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST ON WEDNESDAY AND TRACK NORTHEAST TO JUST SOUTH OF CAPE COD
BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE COASTAL LOW WILL CONTINUE NORTHEAST INTO
THE MARITIMES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
LINGER OVER THE REGION ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY. A WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO THE REGION FROM
THE SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON
SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
NOT MUCH TO TALK ABOUT TONIGHT...AS FOCUS REMAINS ON THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY BE ON THE INCREASE TONIGHT
AS A COLD FNT CONTINUES TO OOZE SWD. WILL SEE LITTLE TEMP
ADVECTION WITH THIS FEATURE...BUT IMPORTANTLY FOR WED WE WILL SEE
DEW POINT ADVECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
***SIGNIFICANT COASTAL STORM TO AFFECT HOLIDAY TRAVEL***

MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOW IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON STORM TRACK...WITH
THE ECMWF...GFS...AND NAM...ALL MOVING JUST SLIGHTLY NW OF THE
40N/70W BENCHMARK. THE CMC REMAINS THE ERN OUTLIER...SO HAVE
TROUBLE PUTTING MUCH STOCK IN ITS OUTPUT ATTM.

THIS LEADS TO A FAIRLY CONSISTENT QPF FORECAST AS WELL. THE GFS
AND ECMWF ARE CLOSE TO OR JUST OVER 1 INCH LIQUID FOR COASTAL SWRN
ME. IF YOU TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE KNOWN BIAS FOR THE NAM TO GIVE
TOO MUCH QPF ON THE COLD SIDE OF LOW PRES SYSTEMS...AND TAKE 2/3
OF ITS QPF...YOU ALSO GET JUST OVER 1 INCH QPF FOR THOSE SAME
AREAS. DIFFERENCES ARISE THE FARTHER NW ONE HEADS FROM THE COAST.
FOR THIS REASON THERE REMAINS A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE MTNS ON
AMOUNTS.

PCPN HAS SPED UP ON MODEL GUIDANCE...REACHING ALL OF THE SRN HALF
OF THE CWFA BY 18Z. SO THIS FORECAST REPRESENTS A SLIGHTLY BUMP UP
IN TIMING FROM THE PREVIOUS SHIFT. THIS MAKES FOR A TRICKY TEMP
FORECAST. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT HIGHS OCCUR VERY EARLY IN THE
DAY...POSSIBLY EVEN NEAR DAWN FOR SOME SRN NH AREAS. FROM THAT
POINT FORWARD...TEMPS LIKELY FALL DURING THE DAY AS PCPN MOVES
NWD. THIS IS MOSTLY DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED DRY ADVECTION
OCCURRING OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. AS PCPN FALLS TEMPS WILL WET BULB
DOWN TO NEAR FREEZING QUICKLY. HI-RES GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE
NAM12...ARW AND NMM WRF MODELS SHOW THIS IN THEIR 2 M TEMP OUTPUT.
FAVORED A BLEND OF 2 M TEMPS RATHER THAN MOS FOR HOURLY TEMP
TREND.

AS THINGS STAND THIS AFTERNOON...GUIDANCE ALSO INDICATES MAINLY N
TO NNE WINDS AT THE SFC. THIS IS COUPLED WITH NWLY AGEOSTROPHIC
FLOW...WHICH WILL ACT TO KEEP WINDS MAINLY OFFSHORE THRU THE
EVENT. FOR THIS REASON I FEEL THAT COASTAL FNT WILL SET UP
OFFSHORE AS WELL...AND MARINE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL NOT BE A
SIGNIFICANT ISSUE. THE BIGGEST DIFFERENTIATOR BETWEEN RA AND SN
WILL BE INITIAL WET BULBING. SO ATTM THE FORECAST IS FOR
SIGNIFICANT SNWFL RIGHT TO THE COAST...ENOUGH TO IMPACT TRAVEL.
WITH MARGINAL TEMPS IT MAY ALSO BE WET AND HEAVY FOR A TIME...AND
SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES ARE POSSIBLE.

THIS LEADS TO ACTUAL FORECAST SNWFL AMOUNTS. IT IS STILL ROUGHLY
24 HOURS AWAY FROM THE BULK OF THE PCPN...SO THERE REMAINS SOME
NUANCES THAT COULD AFFECT SNWFL. FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW...MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENT WITH TRACKING MID LEVEL LOW CENTERS
VERY CLOSE TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. AT THE SAME TIME...700 MB
HEIGHTS TRY AND CLOSE OFF NEARLY OVERHEAD. THIS FAVORS A STRONG
BAND OF LIFT JUST ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE MID LEVEL LOW TRACK.
DEFORMATION AND FRONTOGENESIS PROGS ON THE ECMWF...GFS...AND
NAM AGREE WITH THIS PLACEMENT...FROM SRN NH TO JUST INLAND FROM
THE COAST OF WRN ME. AS THE MID LEVEL LOWS TAKE THIS TRACK...IT
WILL ALLOW SOME WARMTH ALOFT TO SNEAK NW. IT MAY NOT EVER GET
ABOVE FREEZING AT THESE LEVELS...BUT WARMING TO WITH A COUPLE OF
DEGREES OF FREEZING COULD LEAD TO POOR SN GROWTH FOR A TIME ALONG
THE COAST. SN RATIOS WERE ADJUSTED TO REFLECT THESE EXPECTED
OUTCOMES...LOWERED NEAR THE COAST...AND RAISED JUST INLAND WHERE
STRONGEST DEFORMATION BANDING IS LOCATED. IN ADDITION...WE HAVE
ALSO HAD VERY WARM TEMPS RECENTLY AND WILL START OFF WITH MARGINAL
TEMPS EARLY WED. THIS MAY LEAD TO A FALSE SENSE OF SECURITY
HOWEVER. WHEN STRONGEST LIFT COMES IN...DURING WED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...FORCING AND SOUNDINGS CONFIRM THAT SN MAY FALL HEAVILY
AT TIMES. WITH RATES POSSIBLY APPROACHING 1 INCH/HR IT WILL NOT
MATTER HOW WARM IT HAS BEEN...AND ACCUMULATION WILL OCCUR ON
ROADWAYS.

ONCE AGAIN...THE CONDITIONS WILL BE QUICKLY DETERIORATING AND
EXPECTED TO BE THE WORST WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING...COINCIDING
WITH THE BUSIEST TRAVEL TIMES. TRAVELERS SHOULD BE AT THEIR
DESTINATIONS BY WED AFTERNOON IF AT ALL POSSIBLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN FROM THE
WEST ON THANKSGIVING AS THE STORM DEPARTS INTO THE MARITIMES.
HOWEVER....A LARGE SCALE...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN TO OUR
WEST. 12Z MODEL SUITE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AT THIS TIME WITH THESE
LARGE SCALE FEATURES. HOWEVER...THE NEW EURO RUN DEPICTS A NEARLY
STATIONARY INVERTED TROUGH ALONG THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MAINE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THE SCENARIO WOULD KEEP SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE PORTLAND AREA FOR THE END OF THE WORKWEEK. OTHER
MODELS ARE NOT PICKING UP ON THIS NORLUN TROUGH TYPE FEATURE.
WILL SEE IF THIS FEATURE REMAINS ON THE FOLLOWUP MODEL RUNS.

THEREAFTER...VERY QUIET WITH A BRIEF WARM UP ON SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY
A STRONG COLD FRONT ON MONDAY. MODELS DIVERGE AS TO WHETHER A WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM ALONG THIS FRONT...AFFECTING NEW
ENGLAND. A LARGE AND CHILLY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
FOLLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THRU EARLY WED. CONDITIONS
RAPIDLY DETERIORATE FROM S TO N THRU WED AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS
WILL QUICKLY DROP TO IFR AND LOWER BY EVENING. COULD SEE SOME
BRIEF MIXING WITH RA AT KPSM AND KPWM...BEFORE A TRANSITION TO ALL
SNWFL. WINDS ALONG THE COAST WILL BE GUSTY FROM THE NNE...AROUND
25-30 KTS. CONDITIONS QUICKLY IMPROVE TO MVFR OR VFR THU AS LOW
PRES PULLS AWAY.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION IN THE LONG
TERM. THERE MAY BE LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS IN SCT SNOW SHOWERS
ALONG THE COAST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. MVFR CONDITIONS WITH A
FRONTAL PASSAGE NEXT MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...GALE WARNINGS IN EFFECT STARTING WED AFTERNOON.
COASTAL STORM WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE GULF OF ME...WITH A
BRIEF PERIOD OF GALE FORCE GUSTS. SCA WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED
FOLLOWING THE LOW PRES.

LONG TERM...WINDS WILL LIKELY REACH SCA CRITERIA LATE IN THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.  A SW WIND WILL VEER TO THE NW.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 AM WEDNESDAY TO 7 AM EST THURSDAY
     FOR MEZ012>014-018>028.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM WEDNESDAY TO 7 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR MEZ007>009.
NH...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 AM WEDNESDAY TO 7 AM EST THURSDAY
     FOR NHZ002>010-013-014.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM WEDNESDAY TO 7 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR NHZ001.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM WEDNESDAY TO 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

LEGRO/JC




000
FXUS61 KCAR 251814
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
114 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE CROSSING THE REGION TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE FROM THE
COASTAL MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL LIFT ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EXIT ACROSS THE MARITIMES THURSDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...
A COLD FRONT/TROF WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH
PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AND GENERALLY
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA. AN
ISOLATED SHOWER IS ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHWEST AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON. DIURNAL MIXING WILL HELP TRANSPORT THE STRONG WINDS
ALOFT TO THE SURFACE ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
THIS AFTERNOON WHERE A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT. LIGHTER
WINDS WILL OCCUR SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
AREA. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO
AROUND 50 NORTH...TO THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 DOWNEAST. HAVE
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADJUST FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS ALONG WITH
EXPECTED AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AND CLOUD COVER.

PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH ISOLATED RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS TONIGHT...WITH PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES DOWNEAST.
&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
FOR WEDNESDAY...CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM THAT WILL ORGANIZE ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST AND
RAPIDLY SHOOT TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN TIP OF NOVA SCOTIA BY LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE LOW WILL BE A FAST-MOVER AND THE KEY WILL BE
THE EXACT TRACK. A TRACK FURTHER EAST AS SHOWN BY GEMS AND SREF
WILL REDUCE ADVERTISED SNOW AMOUNTS. FOR THIS FORECAST...SNOW
AMOUNTS ARE PREDICATED ON A TRACK TAKING THE LOW JUST SOUTH OF
YARMOUTH IN NOVA SCOTIA. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY ON THE TRACK...WILL
MAINTAIN THE WATCH RATHER THAN COMMITTING TO WARNINGS AND
ADVISORIES AT THIS TIME.

AS THE SNOW STARTS WEDNESDAY...THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL STILL BE
WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN. HOWEVER...EVAPORATIVE COOLING AND COLD AIR
BEING WRAPPED INTO THE STORM WILL CAUSE PRECIP TO CHANGE TO ALL
SNOW BY LATE AFTERNOON ALL THE WAY TO THE COAST. THE FIRST INCH OR
TWO WILL FALL BY EARLY EVENING...BUT THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS PROGGED
FOR THE 7PM TO 1AM TIMEFRAME FOR BANGOR AND DOWN EAST WHEN 5 TO 7
INCHES COULD FALL. SNOW WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF LATER IN THE
NIGHT AND END EARLY THANKSGIVING MORNING. STORM TOTALS FOR BANGOR
AND DOWN EAST ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 9 TO 11 INCHES FOR THE MOST
PART...IF THE FORECAST TRACK HOLDS. HAVE INCREASED AMOUNTS ALONG
THE COAST FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST CYCLE. ON THE OTHER
HAND...HAVE REDUCED AMOUNTS IN AROOSTOOK COUNTY WITH JUST A COUPLE
OF INCHES ANTICIPATED IN THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY.

ON THANKSGIVING DAY...SNOW ENDS IN THE MORNING AND CLOUDS LINGER
UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S NORTH TO
LOWER 30S SOUTH. WINDS WILL TEND TO DECREASE DURING THE DAY AND
THIS POSES THE THREAT OF A STRONG RADIATIONAL INVERSION FOR
THURSDAY. AT THIS TIME...AM GOING WITH GUIDANCE LOWS IN THE
TEENS...BUT ZERO TO LOW SINGLE DIGITS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
CLEARING...FRESH SNOW COVER AND LIGHT WINDS.
&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO THE AREA FRIDAY. EXPECT CLOUDY
SKIES AND A FEW FLURRIES AS AN UPPER TROUGH CROSSES FRIDAY. HIGHS
WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S.  THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A
VERY COLD FRIDAY NIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD SINGLE DIGITS AND A FEW
ZERO READINGS POSSIBLE. WENT WELL BELOW MOST OF THE GUIDANCE. THE
COLD HOLDS ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS JUST A FEW DEGREES WARMER UNDER
INCREASING HIGH OVERRUNNING CLOUDS. A WARM FRONT CROSSES SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW...MOSTLY IN THE CROWN OF MAINE. LOWS
WILL BE EARLY SATURDAY EVENING WITH RISING TEMPERATURES LATER.
A GOOD WARMUP WILL OCCUR FOR SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE
UPPER 30S NORTH AND MID 40S ALONG THE COAST. THE COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON OR EVENING WITH LITTLE PRECIPITATION.
THERE IS SOME QUESTION WHETHER A WAVE FORMS ALONG THE FRONT ON
MONDAY AND BRINGS SNOW TO BANGOR AND DOWN EAST. HOWEVER...AT THIS
TIME CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW IN THIS DEVELOPMENT AND WILL COVER
WITH CHANCE POPS FOR BANGOR AND HANCOCK COUNTY.
&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
NORTH AND MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL OCCUR ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM: VFR TO START WEDNESDAY. BGR AND BHB WILL BECOME LIFR
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE LIFR SPREADS TO ALL SITES IN THE
EVENING. VFR RETURNS TO BGR AND BHB THURSDAY MORNING INTO
SATURDAY. MVFR CIGS WILL BE IN AND OUT FOR HUL NORTHWARD DURING
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THE
WATERS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: HAVE ISSUED A GALE WATCH FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE THEN
EXPECTED LATER THURSDAY.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MEZ001>004.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR MEZ005-006-010-011-015>017-029>032.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
     ANZ050>052.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...NORCROSS/VJN
SHORT TERM...MCW
LONG TERM...MCW
AVIATION...NORCROSS/MCW
MARINE...NORCROSS/MCW



000
FXUS61 KGYX 251556 AAA
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1056 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH OFFSHORE THIS MORNING. THE FRONT
WILL STALL OVER THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT
AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND. LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP ON THE FRONT OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON WEDNESDAY AND
TRACK NORTHEAST TO JUST SOUTH OF CAPE COD BY WEDNESDAY EVENING.
THE COASTAL LOW WILL CONTINUE NORTHEAST INTO THE MARITIMES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE
REGION ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON
FRIDAY. A WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON
SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...MINOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR TODAY. RAISED MIN TEMPS
A COUPLE DEGREES ALONG THE COAST...AS COLD FNT WILL TAKE A COUPLE
HOURS TO GET THRU.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPDATE...EARLY LOOK AT THE 12Z AMERICAN MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE FROM OVERNIGHT FORECAST. THERE IS AN EXCELLENT
CONSENSUS OF MODEL GUIDANCE A SHADE NW OF THE 40N/70W
BENCHMARK...WITH THE CMC BEING THE LONE ERN OUTLIER. THIS IS A
FAVORABLE SNWFL TRACK FOR NRN NEW ENGLAND.

COLUMN CONTINUES TO BE PLENTY COLD ENOUGH FOR SNWFL AT SOME POINT
IN THE STORM. QUESTIONS STILL REMAIN ABOUT SFC TEMPS NEAR THE
COAST AND SRN NH...AS WELL AS HOW MUCH WARMING ALOFT MAKES IT NWD
TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA. ATTM ABOVE FREEZING AIR ALOFT APPEARS
AS IF IT WILL REMAIN S OF THE AREA...HOWEVER NEAR FREEZING TEMPS
COULD LEAD TO A PERIOD OF POOR SN GROWTH.

ALSO DESPITE HIGH QPF FOR THE SE HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA...GFS...NAM...AND ECMWF FORECAST TRACKS FOR MID LEVEL LOW
PRES CENTERS ARGUES THAT SOME DRY SLOT OR DESATURATION ISSUES MAY
ARISE WED EVENING. HAVE ADDED A LITTLE FREEZING DRIZZLE TO GIVE A
NOD IN THIS DIRECTION...AND ALSO DROPPED SN RATIOS...AND THEREFORE
SNWFL AMOUNTS...NEAR THE COAST. HOWEVER...MID LEVEL LOW TRACKS
ALSO LINE UP QUITE FAVORABLE FOR STRONGER FRONTOGENESIS AND
BANDING JUST INLAND FROM THE COAST. SO TOTALS HERE HAVE INCREASED
SLIGHTLY.

THERE IS PLENTY MORE DATA TO SIFT THRU...SO WINTER STORM WATCHES
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH THIS UPDATE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN KEEPING
PRECIPITATION OFFSHORE UNTIL NEARLY DAYBREAK WHEN JUST A FEW WARM
ADVECTION SHOWERS MAY REACH THE SHORE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
THANKSGIVING STORM. WE SHOULD SEE INCREASING CLOUDINESS HOWEVER
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S...WITH TEMPERATURES
INCREASING TOWARDS MORNING.

LOW PRESSURE HEADS UP THE EAST COAST ON WEDNESDAY. MODELS IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN BRINGING LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF
CAPE COD BY 00Z THURSDAY. AFTER THAT ECMWF A LITTLE SLOWER AND
DEEPER THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY. GENERAL TREND PAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS
HAS SHOWN THE ECMWF DRIFTING TOWARD THE GFS SOLUTION WHICH HAS
BEEN CONSISTENTLY COLDER...QUICKER AND WITH LESS QPF.

ALTHOUGH BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS MAY INITIALLY BE WARM ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT RAIN OR A MIX IN COASTAL AREAS...VERY DRY AIR IN PLACE
AT LOWER TO MID LEVELS WILL QUICKLY COOL AND EXPECT ANY MIXED
PRECIP AT THE ONSET TO GO OVER TO SNOW. THIS SHOULD PUSH INTO
SOUTHERN ZONES DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING DEPENDING ON HOW
LONG IT TAKES TO SATURATED THE LOWER AND MID LEVELS. SNOW WILL
GRADUALLY OVERSPREAD THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
MID AFTERNOON.

BIG QUESTION THEN BECOMES QPF AND AXIS OF HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION.
ECMWF SLOWLY TRENDING TOWARD LESSER AMOUNTS IN THE GFS BUT SOME
DIFFERENCES PERSIST. THIS DIFFERENCE PROBABLY DUE TO SLOWER AND
SLIGHTLY DEEPER ECMWF SOLUTION AND THE SUGGESTION OF SOME WEAK
BANDING SETTING UP ALONG THE COAST...WHICH THE GFS IS HINTING AT
BUT FURTHER EAST AND WEAKER. WILL TRY TO FIND A COMPROMISE BETWEEN
THE TWO FOR NOW. THIS WOULD GIVE MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA SOUTH
OF THE MOUNTAINS AND EAST OF THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY WARNING
CRITERIA SNOWFALL.

WITH WATCHES UP AND CONTINUING UNCERTAINTY...SEE NO REASON TO RUSH
WARNINGS. WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT HAVE A LOOK AT THE NEXT MODEL
RUNS AND REFINE THE WARNING AREA FROM THERE.

LOW PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY RACE NORTHEAST INTO THE MARITIMES
WEDNESDAY  NIGHT. EXPECT STEADIER HEAVIER PRECIP TO SHIFT EAST
AFTER MIDNIGHT LEAVING JUST OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW IN IT`S WAKE.
LOWS TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA WILL RANGE THROUGH THE 20S.

TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION ON THANKSGIVING
DAY KEEPING SNOW SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST DURING THE DAY AND INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. NOT LOOKING FOR MUCH IN THE WAY OF QPF BUT SOME
LOCATIONS MAY SEE SOME LIGHT ACCUMS IN THE AFTERNOON AS A WEAK
SHORTWAVE SWINGS THROUGH. WITH A FRESH SNOW PACK WILL SEE TEMPS
RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL READINGS WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID
20S TO MID 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
TROUGHING REMAINS OVERHEAD THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. SNOW
SHOWERS TAPER OFF OVER MUCH OF THE AREA BUT KEPT SOME LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND OFF THE COAST. COLDER AIR
FILTERS IN AS EARLY AS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
TEENS. TEMPERATURES WILL DEPEND ON HOW FAST THE CLOUD COVER IS
SCOURED OUT...AND FOR NOW HAVE KEPT AREAS OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS IN
THE 20S. FRIDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE ONE OF THE COLDEST NIGHTS SO FAR
THIS YEAR...WITH MANY AREAS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS...AND TEENS ALL
THE WAY TO THE COAST.

COLD AIR REMAINS DAMMED ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WITH SOME MODERATION SUNDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. IT
WILL STILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW SHOWERS HOWEVER...BUT THE
FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH QUICKLY AND DROPS SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION OVER THE MOUNTAINS. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT THE PATTERN REMAINS FICKLE
WITH A SYSTEM AFFECTING NEW ENGLAND EVERY 1-2 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...PLENTY OF CIRRUS DEBRIS FROM STORMS MOVING ALONG A
FRONT CURRENTLY OFFSHORE HAS MADE IT TO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
UNDER THIS DENSE FOG HAS FORMED IN A FEW SPOTS AND THE UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDS AREN`T INHIBITING THE RADIATION MUCH IF ANY. FOG SHOULD
DISSIPATE AFTER SUNRISE. SSW HAVE WEAKENED FINALLY BUT WILL
INCREASE AFTER MIXING RESUMES MID MORNING WITH WINDS MORE WSW.
OTHERWISE VFR.

LONG TERM...PERIOD OF LOW CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES BEGINNING
MIDDAY WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS A COASTAL STORM DROPS HEAVY
SNOW AND PERHAPS INITIALLY RAIN OR MIXED PRECIPITATION. ALL
TERMINALS WILL BE AFFECTED BY THE STORM WITH CONDITIONS LIFR FOR A
STRETCH BETWEEN 20Z WEDNESDAY AND 12Z THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...ALL MARINE ZONES NOW UNDER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...GALES WILL DEVELOP WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY FOR
THE OUTER WATERS. SCAS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THE BAYS FOR
WINDS AND SEAS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR MEZ007>009-012>014-018>028.
NH...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR NHZ001>010-013-014.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
     NIGHT FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

UPDATE...LEGRO



000
FXUS61 KGYX 251556 AAA
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1056 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH OFFSHORE THIS MORNING. THE FRONT
WILL STALL OVER THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT
AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND. LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP ON THE FRONT OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON WEDNESDAY AND
TRACK NORTHEAST TO JUST SOUTH OF CAPE COD BY WEDNESDAY EVENING.
THE COASTAL LOW WILL CONTINUE NORTHEAST INTO THE MARITIMES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE
REGION ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON
FRIDAY. A WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON
SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...MINOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR TODAY. RAISED MIN TEMPS
A COUPLE DEGREES ALONG THE COAST...AS COLD FNT WILL TAKE A COUPLE
HOURS TO GET THRU.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPDATE...EARLY LOOK AT THE 12Z AMERICAN MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE FROM OVERNIGHT FORECAST. THERE IS AN EXCELLENT
CONSENSUS OF MODEL GUIDANCE A SHADE NW OF THE 40N/70W
BENCHMARK...WITH THE CMC BEING THE LONE ERN OUTLIER. THIS IS A
FAVORABLE SNWFL TRACK FOR NRN NEW ENGLAND.

COLUMN CONTINUES TO BE PLENTY COLD ENOUGH FOR SNWFL AT SOME POINT
IN THE STORM. QUESTIONS STILL REMAIN ABOUT SFC TEMPS NEAR THE
COAST AND SRN NH...AS WELL AS HOW MUCH WARMING ALOFT MAKES IT NWD
TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA. ATTM ABOVE FREEZING AIR ALOFT APPEARS
AS IF IT WILL REMAIN S OF THE AREA...HOWEVER NEAR FREEZING TEMPS
COULD LEAD TO A PERIOD OF POOR SN GROWTH.

ALSO DESPITE HIGH QPF FOR THE SE HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA...GFS...NAM...AND ECMWF FORECAST TRACKS FOR MID LEVEL LOW
PRES CENTERS ARGUES THAT SOME DRY SLOT OR DESATURATION ISSUES MAY
ARISE WED EVENING. HAVE ADDED A LITTLE FREEZING DRIZZLE TO GIVE A
NOD IN THIS DIRECTION...AND ALSO DROPPED SN RATIOS...AND THEREFORE
SNWFL AMOUNTS...NEAR THE COAST. HOWEVER...MID LEVEL LOW TRACKS
ALSO LINE UP QUITE FAVORABLE FOR STRONGER FRONTOGENESIS AND
BANDING JUST INLAND FROM THE COAST. SO TOTALS HERE HAVE INCREASED
SLIGHTLY.

THERE IS PLENTY MORE DATA TO SIFT THRU...SO WINTER STORM WATCHES
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH THIS UPDATE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN KEEPING
PRECIPITATION OFFSHORE UNTIL NEARLY DAYBREAK WHEN JUST A FEW WARM
ADVECTION SHOWERS MAY REACH THE SHORE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
THANKSGIVING STORM. WE SHOULD SEE INCREASING CLOUDINESS HOWEVER
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S...WITH TEMPERATURES
INCREASING TOWARDS MORNING.

LOW PRESSURE HEADS UP THE EAST COAST ON WEDNESDAY. MODELS IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN BRINGING LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF
CAPE COD BY 00Z THURSDAY. AFTER THAT ECMWF A LITTLE SLOWER AND
DEEPER THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY. GENERAL TREND PAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS
HAS SHOWN THE ECMWF DRIFTING TOWARD THE GFS SOLUTION WHICH HAS
BEEN CONSISTENTLY COLDER...QUICKER AND WITH LESS QPF.

ALTHOUGH BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS MAY INITIALLY BE WARM ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT RAIN OR A MIX IN COASTAL AREAS...VERY DRY AIR IN PLACE
AT LOWER TO MID LEVELS WILL QUICKLY COOL AND EXPECT ANY MIXED
PRECIP AT THE ONSET TO GO OVER TO SNOW. THIS SHOULD PUSH INTO
SOUTHERN ZONES DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING DEPENDING ON HOW
LONG IT TAKES TO SATURATED THE LOWER AND MID LEVELS. SNOW WILL
GRADUALLY OVERSPREAD THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
MID AFTERNOON.

BIG QUESTION THEN BECOMES QPF AND AXIS OF HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION.
ECMWF SLOWLY TRENDING TOWARD LESSER AMOUNTS IN THE GFS BUT SOME
DIFFERENCES PERSIST. THIS DIFFERENCE PROBABLY DUE TO SLOWER AND
SLIGHTLY DEEPER ECMWF SOLUTION AND THE SUGGESTION OF SOME WEAK
BANDING SETTING UP ALONG THE COAST...WHICH THE GFS IS HINTING AT
BUT FURTHER EAST AND WEAKER. WILL TRY TO FIND A COMPROMISE BETWEEN
THE TWO FOR NOW. THIS WOULD GIVE MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA SOUTH
OF THE MOUNTAINS AND EAST OF THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY WARNING
CRITERIA SNOWFALL.

WITH WATCHES UP AND CONTINUING UNCERTAINTY...SEE NO REASON TO RUSH
WARNINGS. WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT HAVE A LOOK AT THE NEXT MODEL
RUNS AND REFINE THE WARNING AREA FROM THERE.

LOW PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY RACE NORTHEAST INTO THE MARITIMES
WEDNESDAY  NIGHT. EXPECT STEADIER HEAVIER PRECIP TO SHIFT EAST
AFTER MIDNIGHT LEAVING JUST OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW IN IT`S WAKE.
LOWS TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA WILL RANGE THROUGH THE 20S.

TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION ON THANKSGIVING
DAY KEEPING SNOW SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST DURING THE DAY AND INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. NOT LOOKING FOR MUCH IN THE WAY OF QPF BUT SOME
LOCATIONS MAY SEE SOME LIGHT ACCUMS IN THE AFTERNOON AS A WEAK
SHORTWAVE SWINGS THROUGH. WITH A FRESH SNOW PACK WILL SEE TEMPS
RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL READINGS WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID
20S TO MID 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
TROUGHING REMAINS OVERHEAD THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. SNOW
SHOWERS TAPER OFF OVER MUCH OF THE AREA BUT KEPT SOME LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND OFF THE COAST. COLDER AIR
FILTERS IN AS EARLY AS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
TEENS. TEMPERATURES WILL DEPEND ON HOW FAST THE CLOUD COVER IS
SCOURED OUT...AND FOR NOW HAVE KEPT AREAS OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS IN
THE 20S. FRIDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE ONE OF THE COLDEST NIGHTS SO FAR
THIS YEAR...WITH MANY AREAS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS...AND TEENS ALL
THE WAY TO THE COAST.

COLD AIR REMAINS DAMMED ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WITH SOME MODERATION SUNDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. IT
WILL STILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW SHOWERS HOWEVER...BUT THE
FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH QUICKLY AND DROPS SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION OVER THE MOUNTAINS. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT THE PATTERN REMAINS FICKLE
WITH A SYSTEM AFFECTING NEW ENGLAND EVERY 1-2 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...PLENTY OF CIRRUS DEBRIS FROM STORMS MOVING ALONG A
FRONT CURRENTLY OFFSHORE HAS MADE IT TO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
UNDER THIS DENSE FOG HAS FORMED IN A FEW SPOTS AND THE UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDS AREN`T INHIBITING THE RADIATION MUCH IF ANY. FOG SHOULD
DISSIPATE AFTER SUNRISE. SSW HAVE WEAKENED FINALLY BUT WILL
INCREASE AFTER MIXING RESUMES MID MORNING WITH WINDS MORE WSW.
OTHERWISE VFR.

LONG TERM...PERIOD OF LOW CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES BEGINNING
MIDDAY WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS A COASTAL STORM DROPS HEAVY
SNOW AND PERHAPS INITIALLY RAIN OR MIXED PRECIPITATION. ALL
TERMINALS WILL BE AFFECTED BY THE STORM WITH CONDITIONS LIFR FOR A
STRETCH BETWEEN 20Z WEDNESDAY AND 12Z THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...ALL MARINE ZONES NOW UNDER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...GALES WILL DEVELOP WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY FOR
THE OUTER WATERS. SCAS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THE BAYS FOR
WINDS AND SEAS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR MEZ007>009-012>014-018>028.
NH...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR NHZ001>010-013-014.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
     NIGHT FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

UPDATE...LEGRO



000
FXUS61 KGYX 251556 AAA
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1056 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH OFFSHORE THIS MORNING. THE FRONT
WILL STALL OVER THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT
AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND. LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP ON THE FRONT OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON WEDNESDAY AND
TRACK NORTHEAST TO JUST SOUTH OF CAPE COD BY WEDNESDAY EVENING.
THE COASTAL LOW WILL CONTINUE NORTHEAST INTO THE MARITIMES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE
REGION ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON
FRIDAY. A WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON
SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...MINOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR TODAY. RAISED MIN TEMPS
A COUPLE DEGREES ALONG THE COAST...AS COLD FNT WILL TAKE A COUPLE
HOURS TO GET THRU.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPDATE...EARLY LOOK AT THE 12Z AMERICAN MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE FROM OVERNIGHT FORECAST. THERE IS AN EXCELLENT
CONSENSUS OF MODEL GUIDANCE A SHADE NW OF THE 40N/70W
BENCHMARK...WITH THE CMC BEING THE LONE ERN OUTLIER. THIS IS A
FAVORABLE SNWFL TRACK FOR NRN NEW ENGLAND.

COLUMN CONTINUES TO BE PLENTY COLD ENOUGH FOR SNWFL AT SOME POINT
IN THE STORM. QUESTIONS STILL REMAIN ABOUT SFC TEMPS NEAR THE
COAST AND SRN NH...AS WELL AS HOW MUCH WARMING ALOFT MAKES IT NWD
TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA. ATTM ABOVE FREEZING AIR ALOFT APPEARS
AS IF IT WILL REMAIN S OF THE AREA...HOWEVER NEAR FREEZING TEMPS
COULD LEAD TO A PERIOD OF POOR SN GROWTH.

ALSO DESPITE HIGH QPF FOR THE SE HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA...GFS...NAM...AND ECMWF FORECAST TRACKS FOR MID LEVEL LOW
PRES CENTERS ARGUES THAT SOME DRY SLOT OR DESATURATION ISSUES MAY
ARISE WED EVENING. HAVE ADDED A LITTLE FREEZING DRIZZLE TO GIVE A
NOD IN THIS DIRECTION...AND ALSO DROPPED SN RATIOS...AND THEREFORE
SNWFL AMOUNTS...NEAR THE COAST. HOWEVER...MID LEVEL LOW TRACKS
ALSO LINE UP QUITE FAVORABLE FOR STRONGER FRONTOGENESIS AND
BANDING JUST INLAND FROM THE COAST. SO TOTALS HERE HAVE INCREASED
SLIGHTLY.

THERE IS PLENTY MORE DATA TO SIFT THRU...SO WINTER STORM WATCHES
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH THIS UPDATE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN KEEPING
PRECIPITATION OFFSHORE UNTIL NEARLY DAYBREAK WHEN JUST A FEW WARM
ADVECTION SHOWERS MAY REACH THE SHORE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
THANKSGIVING STORM. WE SHOULD SEE INCREASING CLOUDINESS HOWEVER
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S...WITH TEMPERATURES
INCREASING TOWARDS MORNING.

LOW PRESSURE HEADS UP THE EAST COAST ON WEDNESDAY. MODELS IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN BRINGING LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF
CAPE COD BY 00Z THURSDAY. AFTER THAT ECMWF A LITTLE SLOWER AND
DEEPER THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY. GENERAL TREND PAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS
HAS SHOWN THE ECMWF DRIFTING TOWARD THE GFS SOLUTION WHICH HAS
BEEN CONSISTENTLY COLDER...QUICKER AND WITH LESS QPF.

ALTHOUGH BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS MAY INITIALLY BE WARM ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT RAIN OR A MIX IN COASTAL AREAS...VERY DRY AIR IN PLACE
AT LOWER TO MID LEVELS WILL QUICKLY COOL AND EXPECT ANY MIXED
PRECIP AT THE ONSET TO GO OVER TO SNOW. THIS SHOULD PUSH INTO
SOUTHERN ZONES DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING DEPENDING ON HOW
LONG IT TAKES TO SATURATED THE LOWER AND MID LEVELS. SNOW WILL
GRADUALLY OVERSPREAD THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
MID AFTERNOON.

BIG QUESTION THEN BECOMES QPF AND AXIS OF HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION.
ECMWF SLOWLY TRENDING TOWARD LESSER AMOUNTS IN THE GFS BUT SOME
DIFFERENCES PERSIST. THIS DIFFERENCE PROBABLY DUE TO SLOWER AND
SLIGHTLY DEEPER ECMWF SOLUTION AND THE SUGGESTION OF SOME WEAK
BANDING SETTING UP ALONG THE COAST...WHICH THE GFS IS HINTING AT
BUT FURTHER EAST AND WEAKER. WILL TRY TO FIND A COMPROMISE BETWEEN
THE TWO FOR NOW. THIS WOULD GIVE MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA SOUTH
OF THE MOUNTAINS AND EAST OF THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY WARNING
CRITERIA SNOWFALL.

WITH WATCHES UP AND CONTINUING UNCERTAINTY...SEE NO REASON TO RUSH
WARNINGS. WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT HAVE A LOOK AT THE NEXT MODEL
RUNS AND REFINE THE WARNING AREA FROM THERE.

LOW PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY RACE NORTHEAST INTO THE MARITIMES
WEDNESDAY  NIGHT. EXPECT STEADIER HEAVIER PRECIP TO SHIFT EAST
AFTER MIDNIGHT LEAVING JUST OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW IN IT`S WAKE.
LOWS TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA WILL RANGE THROUGH THE 20S.

TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION ON THANKSGIVING
DAY KEEPING SNOW SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST DURING THE DAY AND INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. NOT LOOKING FOR MUCH IN THE WAY OF QPF BUT SOME
LOCATIONS MAY SEE SOME LIGHT ACCUMS IN THE AFTERNOON AS A WEAK
SHORTWAVE SWINGS THROUGH. WITH A FRESH SNOW PACK WILL SEE TEMPS
RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL READINGS WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID
20S TO MID 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
TROUGHING REMAINS OVERHEAD THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. SNOW
SHOWERS TAPER OFF OVER MUCH OF THE AREA BUT KEPT SOME LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND OFF THE COAST. COLDER AIR
FILTERS IN AS EARLY AS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
TEENS. TEMPERATURES WILL DEPEND ON HOW FAST THE CLOUD COVER IS
SCOURED OUT...AND FOR NOW HAVE KEPT AREAS OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS IN
THE 20S. FRIDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE ONE OF THE COLDEST NIGHTS SO FAR
THIS YEAR...WITH MANY AREAS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS...AND TEENS ALL
THE WAY TO THE COAST.

COLD AIR REMAINS DAMMED ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WITH SOME MODERATION SUNDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. IT
WILL STILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW SHOWERS HOWEVER...BUT THE
FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH QUICKLY AND DROPS SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION OVER THE MOUNTAINS. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT THE PATTERN REMAINS FICKLE
WITH A SYSTEM AFFECTING NEW ENGLAND EVERY 1-2 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...PLENTY OF CIRRUS DEBRIS FROM STORMS MOVING ALONG A
FRONT CURRENTLY OFFSHORE HAS MADE IT TO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
UNDER THIS DENSE FOG HAS FORMED IN A FEW SPOTS AND THE UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDS AREN`T INHIBITING THE RADIATION MUCH IF ANY. FOG SHOULD
DISSIPATE AFTER SUNRISE. SSW HAVE WEAKENED FINALLY BUT WILL
INCREASE AFTER MIXING RESUMES MID MORNING WITH WINDS MORE WSW.
OTHERWISE VFR.

LONG TERM...PERIOD OF LOW CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES BEGINNING
MIDDAY WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS A COASTAL STORM DROPS HEAVY
SNOW AND PERHAPS INITIALLY RAIN OR MIXED PRECIPITATION. ALL
TERMINALS WILL BE AFFECTED BY THE STORM WITH CONDITIONS LIFR FOR A
STRETCH BETWEEN 20Z WEDNESDAY AND 12Z THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...ALL MARINE ZONES NOW UNDER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...GALES WILL DEVELOP WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY FOR
THE OUTER WATERS. SCAS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THE BAYS FOR
WINDS AND SEAS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR MEZ007>009-012>014-018>028.
NH...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR NHZ001>010-013-014.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
     NIGHT FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

UPDATE...LEGRO



000
FXUS61 KGYX 251556 AAA
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1056 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH OFFSHORE THIS MORNING. THE FRONT
WILL STALL OVER THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT
AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND. LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP ON THE FRONT OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON WEDNESDAY AND
TRACK NORTHEAST TO JUST SOUTH OF CAPE COD BY WEDNESDAY EVENING.
THE COASTAL LOW WILL CONTINUE NORTHEAST INTO THE MARITIMES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE
REGION ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON
FRIDAY. A WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON
SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...MINOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR TODAY. RAISED MIN TEMPS
A COUPLE DEGREES ALONG THE COAST...AS COLD FNT WILL TAKE A COUPLE
HOURS TO GET THRU.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPDATE...EARLY LOOK AT THE 12Z AMERICAN MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE FROM OVERNIGHT FORECAST. THERE IS AN EXCELLENT
CONSENSUS OF MODEL GUIDANCE A SHADE NW OF THE 40N/70W
BENCHMARK...WITH THE CMC BEING THE LONE ERN OUTLIER. THIS IS A
FAVORABLE SNWFL TRACK FOR NRN NEW ENGLAND.

COLUMN CONTINUES TO BE PLENTY COLD ENOUGH FOR SNWFL AT SOME POINT
IN THE STORM. QUESTIONS STILL REMAIN ABOUT SFC TEMPS NEAR THE
COAST AND SRN NH...AS WELL AS HOW MUCH WARMING ALOFT MAKES IT NWD
TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA. ATTM ABOVE FREEZING AIR ALOFT APPEARS
AS IF IT WILL REMAIN S OF THE AREA...HOWEVER NEAR FREEZING TEMPS
COULD LEAD TO A PERIOD OF POOR SN GROWTH.

ALSO DESPITE HIGH QPF FOR THE SE HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA...GFS...NAM...AND ECMWF FORECAST TRACKS FOR MID LEVEL LOW
PRES CENTERS ARGUES THAT SOME DRY SLOT OR DESATURATION ISSUES MAY
ARISE WED EVENING. HAVE ADDED A LITTLE FREEZING DRIZZLE TO GIVE A
NOD IN THIS DIRECTION...AND ALSO DROPPED SN RATIOS...AND THEREFORE
SNWFL AMOUNTS...NEAR THE COAST. HOWEVER...MID LEVEL LOW TRACKS
ALSO LINE UP QUITE FAVORABLE FOR STRONGER FRONTOGENESIS AND
BANDING JUST INLAND FROM THE COAST. SO TOTALS HERE HAVE INCREASED
SLIGHTLY.

THERE IS PLENTY MORE DATA TO SIFT THRU...SO WINTER STORM WATCHES
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH THIS UPDATE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN KEEPING
PRECIPITATION OFFSHORE UNTIL NEARLY DAYBREAK WHEN JUST A FEW WARM
ADVECTION SHOWERS MAY REACH THE SHORE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
THANKSGIVING STORM. WE SHOULD SEE INCREASING CLOUDINESS HOWEVER
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S...WITH TEMPERATURES
INCREASING TOWARDS MORNING.

LOW PRESSURE HEADS UP THE EAST COAST ON WEDNESDAY. MODELS IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN BRINGING LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF
CAPE COD BY 00Z THURSDAY. AFTER THAT ECMWF A LITTLE SLOWER AND
DEEPER THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY. GENERAL TREND PAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS
HAS SHOWN THE ECMWF DRIFTING TOWARD THE GFS SOLUTION WHICH HAS
BEEN CONSISTENTLY COLDER...QUICKER AND WITH LESS QPF.

ALTHOUGH BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS MAY INITIALLY BE WARM ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT RAIN OR A MIX IN COASTAL AREAS...VERY DRY AIR IN PLACE
AT LOWER TO MID LEVELS WILL QUICKLY COOL AND EXPECT ANY MIXED
PRECIP AT THE ONSET TO GO OVER TO SNOW. THIS SHOULD PUSH INTO
SOUTHERN ZONES DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING DEPENDING ON HOW
LONG IT TAKES TO SATURATED THE LOWER AND MID LEVELS. SNOW WILL
GRADUALLY OVERSPREAD THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
MID AFTERNOON.

BIG QUESTION THEN BECOMES QPF AND AXIS OF HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION.
ECMWF SLOWLY TRENDING TOWARD LESSER AMOUNTS IN THE GFS BUT SOME
DIFFERENCES PERSIST. THIS DIFFERENCE PROBABLY DUE TO SLOWER AND
SLIGHTLY DEEPER ECMWF SOLUTION AND THE SUGGESTION OF SOME WEAK
BANDING SETTING UP ALONG THE COAST...WHICH THE GFS IS HINTING AT
BUT FURTHER EAST AND WEAKER. WILL TRY TO FIND A COMPROMISE BETWEEN
THE TWO FOR NOW. THIS WOULD GIVE MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA SOUTH
OF THE MOUNTAINS AND EAST OF THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY WARNING
CRITERIA SNOWFALL.

WITH WATCHES UP AND CONTINUING UNCERTAINTY...SEE NO REASON TO RUSH
WARNINGS. WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT HAVE A LOOK AT THE NEXT MODEL
RUNS AND REFINE THE WARNING AREA FROM THERE.

LOW PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY RACE NORTHEAST INTO THE MARITIMES
WEDNESDAY  NIGHT. EXPECT STEADIER HEAVIER PRECIP TO SHIFT EAST
AFTER MIDNIGHT LEAVING JUST OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW IN IT`S WAKE.
LOWS TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA WILL RANGE THROUGH THE 20S.

TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION ON THANKSGIVING
DAY KEEPING SNOW SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST DURING THE DAY AND INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. NOT LOOKING FOR MUCH IN THE WAY OF QPF BUT SOME
LOCATIONS MAY SEE SOME LIGHT ACCUMS IN THE AFTERNOON AS A WEAK
SHORTWAVE SWINGS THROUGH. WITH A FRESH SNOW PACK WILL SEE TEMPS
RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL READINGS WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID
20S TO MID 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
TROUGHING REMAINS OVERHEAD THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. SNOW
SHOWERS TAPER OFF OVER MUCH OF THE AREA BUT KEPT SOME LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND OFF THE COAST. COLDER AIR
FILTERS IN AS EARLY AS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
TEENS. TEMPERATURES WILL DEPEND ON HOW FAST THE CLOUD COVER IS
SCOURED OUT...AND FOR NOW HAVE KEPT AREAS OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS IN
THE 20S. FRIDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE ONE OF THE COLDEST NIGHTS SO FAR
THIS YEAR...WITH MANY AREAS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS...AND TEENS ALL
THE WAY TO THE COAST.

COLD AIR REMAINS DAMMED ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WITH SOME MODERATION SUNDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. IT
WILL STILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW SHOWERS HOWEVER...BUT THE
FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH QUICKLY AND DROPS SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION OVER THE MOUNTAINS. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT THE PATTERN REMAINS FICKLE
WITH A SYSTEM AFFECTING NEW ENGLAND EVERY 1-2 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...PLENTY OF CIRRUS DEBRIS FROM STORMS MOVING ALONG A
FRONT CURRENTLY OFFSHORE HAS MADE IT TO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
UNDER THIS DENSE FOG HAS FORMED IN A FEW SPOTS AND THE UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDS AREN`T INHIBITING THE RADIATION MUCH IF ANY. FOG SHOULD
DISSIPATE AFTER SUNRISE. SSW HAVE WEAKENED FINALLY BUT WILL
INCREASE AFTER MIXING RESUMES MID MORNING WITH WINDS MORE WSW.
OTHERWISE VFR.

LONG TERM...PERIOD OF LOW CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES BEGINNING
MIDDAY WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS A COASTAL STORM DROPS HEAVY
SNOW AND PERHAPS INITIALLY RAIN OR MIXED PRECIPITATION. ALL
TERMINALS WILL BE AFFECTED BY THE STORM WITH CONDITIONS LIFR FOR A
STRETCH BETWEEN 20Z WEDNESDAY AND 12Z THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...ALL MARINE ZONES NOW UNDER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...GALES WILL DEVELOP WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY FOR
THE OUTER WATERS. SCAS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THE BAYS FOR
WINDS AND SEAS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR MEZ007>009-012>014-018>028.
NH...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR NHZ001>010-013-014.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
     NIGHT FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

UPDATE...LEGRO



000
FXUS61 KCAR 251554
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1054 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE CROSSING THE REGION TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE FROM THE
COASTAL MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL LIFT ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EXIT ACROSS THE MARITIMES THURSDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...
A COLD FRONT/TROF WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH
PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AND GENERALLY
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA. AN
ISOLATED SHOWER IS ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHWEST AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON. DIURNAL MIXING WILL HELP TRANSPORT THE STRONG WINDS
ALOFT TO THE SURFACE ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
THIS AFTERNOON WHERE A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT. LIGHTER
WINDS WILL OCCUR SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
AREA. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO
AROUND 50 NORTH...TO THE UPPER 50S DOWNEAST.

PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH ISOLATED RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS TONIGHT...WITH PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES DOWNEAST.
&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
FOR WEDNESDAY...CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM THAT WILL ORGANIZE ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST AND
RAPIDLY SHOOT TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN TIP OF NOVA SCOTIA BY LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE LOW WILL BE A FAST-MOVER AND THE KEY WILL BE
THE EXACT TRACK. A TRACK FURTHER EAST AS SHOWN BY GEMS AND SREF
WILL REDUCE ADVERTISED SNOW AMOUNTS. FOR THIS FORECAST...SNOW
AMOUNTS ARE PREDICATED ON A TRACK TAKING THE LOW JUST SOUTH OF
YARMOUTH IN NOVA SCOTIA. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY ON THE TRACK...WILL
MAINTAIN THE WATCH RATHER THAN COMMITTING TO WARNINGS AND
ADVISORIES AT THIS TIME.

AS THE SNOW STARTS WEDNESDAY...THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL STILL BE
WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN. HOWEVER...EVAPORATIVE COOLING AND COLD AIR
BEING WRAPPED INTO THE STORM WILL CAUSE PRECIP TO CHANGE TO ALL
SNOW BY LATE AFTERNOON ALL THE WAY TO THE COAST. THE FIRST INCH OR
TWO WILL FALL BY EARLY EVENING...BUT THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS PROGGED
FOR THE 7PM TO 1AM TIMEFRAME FOR BANGOR AND DOWN EAST WHEN 5 TO 7
INCHES COULD FALL. SNOW WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF LATER IN THE
NIGHT AND END EARLY THANKSGIVING MORNING. STORM TOTALS FOR BANGOR
AND DOWN EAST ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 9 TO 11 INCHES FOR THE MOST
PART...IF THE FORECAST TRACK HOLDS. HAVE INCREASED AMOUNTS ALONG
THE COAST FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST CYCLE. ON THE OTHER
HAND...HAVE REDUCED AMOUNTS IN AROOSTOOK COUNTY WITH JUST A COUPLE
OF INCHES ANTICIPATED IN THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY.

ON THANKSGIVING DAY...SNOW ENDS IN THE MORNING AND CLOUDS LINGER
UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S NORTH TO
LOWER 30S SOUTH. WINDS WILL TEND TO DECREASE DURING THE DAY AND
THIS POSES THE THREAT OF A STRONG RADIATIONAL INVERSION FOR
THURSDAY. AT THIS TIME...AM GOING WITH GUIDANCE LOWS IN THE
TEENS...BUT ZERO TO LOW SINGLE DIGITS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
CLEARING...FRESH SNOW COVER AND LIGHT WINDS.
&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO THE AREA FRIDAY. EXPECT CLOUDY
SKIES AND A FEW FLURRIES AS AN UPPER TROUGH CROSSES FRIDAY. HIGHS
WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S.  THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A
VERY COLD FRIDAY NIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD SINGLE DIGITS AND A FEW
ZERO READINGS POSSIBLE. WENT WELL BELOW MOST OF THE GUIDANCE. THE
COLD HOLDS ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS JUST A FEW DEGREES WARMER UNDER
INCREASING HIGH OVERRUNNING CLOUDS. A WARM FRONT CROSSES SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW...MOSTLY IN THE CROWN OF MAINE. LOWS
WILL BE EARLY SATURDAY EVENING WITH RISING TEMPERATURES LATER.
A GOOD WARMUP WILL OCCUR FOR SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE
UPPER 30S NORTH AND MID 40S ALONG THE COAST. THE COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON OR EVENING WITH LITTLE PRECIPITATION.
THERE IS SOME QUESTION WHETHER A WAVE FORMS ALONG THE FRONT ON
MONDAY AND BRINGS SNOW TO BANGOR AND DOWN EAST. HOWEVER...AT THIS
TIME CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW IN THIS DEVELOPMENT AND WILL COVER
WITH CHANCE POPS FOR BANGOR AND HANCOCK COUNTY.
&&

.AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
NORTH AND MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL OCCUR ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM: VFR TO START WEDNESDAY. BGR AND BHB WILL BECOME LIFR
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE LIFR SPREADS TO ALL SITES IN THE
EVENING. VFR RETURNS TO BGR AND BHB THURSDAY MORNING INTO
SATURDAY. MVFR CIGS WILL BE IN AND OUT FOR HUL NORTHWARD DURING
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THE
WATERS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: HAVE ISSUED A GALE WATCH FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING WITH THIS UPDATE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
ARE THEN EXPECTED LATER THURSDAY.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MEZ001>004.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR MEZ005-006-010-011-015>017-029>032.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
     ANZ050>052.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...NORCROSS/VJN
SHORT TERM...MCW
LONG TERM...MCW
AVIATION...NORCROSS/MCW
MARINE...NORCROSS/MCW



000
FXUS61 KCAR 251554
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1054 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE CROSSING THE REGION TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE FROM THE
COASTAL MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL LIFT ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EXIT ACROSS THE MARITIMES THURSDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...
A COLD FRONT/TROF WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH
PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AND GENERALLY
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA. AN
ISOLATED SHOWER IS ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHWEST AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON. DIURNAL MIXING WILL HELP TRANSPORT THE STRONG WINDS
ALOFT TO THE SURFACE ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
THIS AFTERNOON WHERE A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT. LIGHTER
WINDS WILL OCCUR SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
AREA. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO
AROUND 50 NORTH...TO THE UPPER 50S DOWNEAST.

PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH ISOLATED RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS TONIGHT...WITH PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES DOWNEAST.
&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
FOR WEDNESDAY...CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM THAT WILL ORGANIZE ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST AND
RAPIDLY SHOOT TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN TIP OF NOVA SCOTIA BY LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE LOW WILL BE A FAST-MOVER AND THE KEY WILL BE
THE EXACT TRACK. A TRACK FURTHER EAST AS SHOWN BY GEMS AND SREF
WILL REDUCE ADVERTISED SNOW AMOUNTS. FOR THIS FORECAST...SNOW
AMOUNTS ARE PREDICATED ON A TRACK TAKING THE LOW JUST SOUTH OF
YARMOUTH IN NOVA SCOTIA. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY ON THE TRACK...WILL
MAINTAIN THE WATCH RATHER THAN COMMITTING TO WARNINGS AND
ADVISORIES AT THIS TIME.

AS THE SNOW STARTS WEDNESDAY...THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL STILL BE
WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN. HOWEVER...EVAPORATIVE COOLING AND COLD AIR
BEING WRAPPED INTO THE STORM WILL CAUSE PRECIP TO CHANGE TO ALL
SNOW BY LATE AFTERNOON ALL THE WAY TO THE COAST. THE FIRST INCH OR
TWO WILL FALL BY EARLY EVENING...BUT THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS PROGGED
FOR THE 7PM TO 1AM TIMEFRAME FOR BANGOR AND DOWN EAST WHEN 5 TO 7
INCHES COULD FALL. SNOW WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF LATER IN THE
NIGHT AND END EARLY THANKSGIVING MORNING. STORM TOTALS FOR BANGOR
AND DOWN EAST ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 9 TO 11 INCHES FOR THE MOST
PART...IF THE FORECAST TRACK HOLDS. HAVE INCREASED AMOUNTS ALONG
THE COAST FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST CYCLE. ON THE OTHER
HAND...HAVE REDUCED AMOUNTS IN AROOSTOOK COUNTY WITH JUST A COUPLE
OF INCHES ANTICIPATED IN THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY.

ON THANKSGIVING DAY...SNOW ENDS IN THE MORNING AND CLOUDS LINGER
UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S NORTH TO
LOWER 30S SOUTH. WINDS WILL TEND TO DECREASE DURING THE DAY AND
THIS POSES THE THREAT OF A STRONG RADIATIONAL INVERSION FOR
THURSDAY. AT THIS TIME...AM GOING WITH GUIDANCE LOWS IN THE
TEENS...BUT ZERO TO LOW SINGLE DIGITS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
CLEARING...FRESH SNOW COVER AND LIGHT WINDS.
&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO THE AREA FRIDAY. EXPECT CLOUDY
SKIES AND A FEW FLURRIES AS AN UPPER TROUGH CROSSES FRIDAY. HIGHS
WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S.  THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A
VERY COLD FRIDAY NIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD SINGLE DIGITS AND A FEW
ZERO READINGS POSSIBLE. WENT WELL BELOW MOST OF THE GUIDANCE. THE
COLD HOLDS ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS JUST A FEW DEGREES WARMER UNDER
INCREASING HIGH OVERRUNNING CLOUDS. A WARM FRONT CROSSES SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW...MOSTLY IN THE CROWN OF MAINE. LOWS
WILL BE EARLY SATURDAY EVENING WITH RISING TEMPERATURES LATER.
A GOOD WARMUP WILL OCCUR FOR SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE
UPPER 30S NORTH AND MID 40S ALONG THE COAST. THE COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON OR EVENING WITH LITTLE PRECIPITATION.
THERE IS SOME QUESTION WHETHER A WAVE FORMS ALONG THE FRONT ON
MONDAY AND BRINGS SNOW TO BANGOR AND DOWN EAST. HOWEVER...AT THIS
TIME CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW IN THIS DEVELOPMENT AND WILL COVER
WITH CHANCE POPS FOR BANGOR AND HANCOCK COUNTY.
&&

.AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
NORTH AND MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL OCCUR ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM: VFR TO START WEDNESDAY. BGR AND BHB WILL BECOME LIFR
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE LIFR SPREADS TO ALL SITES IN THE
EVENING. VFR RETURNS TO BGR AND BHB THURSDAY MORNING INTO
SATURDAY. MVFR CIGS WILL BE IN AND OUT FOR HUL NORTHWARD DURING
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THE
WATERS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: HAVE ISSUED A GALE WATCH FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING WITH THIS UPDATE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
ARE THEN EXPECTED LATER THURSDAY.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MEZ001>004.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR MEZ005-006-010-011-015>017-029>032.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
     ANZ050>052.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...NORCROSS/VJN
SHORT TERM...MCW
LONG TERM...MCW
AVIATION...NORCROSS/MCW
MARINE...NORCROSS/MCW




000
FXUS61 KGYX 251207
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
707 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH OFFSHORE THIS MORNING. THE FRONT
WILL STALL OVER THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT
AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND. LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP ON THE FRONT OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON WEDNESDAY AND
TRACK NORTHEAST TO JUST SOUTH OF CAPE COD BY WEDNESDAY EVENING.
THE COASTAL LOW WILL CONTINUE NORTHEAST INTO THE MARITIMES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE
REGION ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON
FRIDAY. A WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON
SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
.UPDATE...
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM OVER THE AREA. HAVE ADJUSTED
TEMPERATURES WHICH CONTINUE TO BE WARMER THAN FORECAST... LIKELY
DUE TO MODELS NOT HANDLING RH (CLOUD COVER) WELL AND
OVERFORECASTING OF COLD AIR ADVECTION. ALSO INCREASED TODAY`S MAX
TEMPERATURES FOR THE LAST REASON MENTIONED. OTHERWISE FORECAST
REMAINS ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN KEEPING PRECIPITATION OFFSHORE UNTIL
NEARLY DAYBREAK WHEN JUST A FEW WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS MAY REACH
THE SHORE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE THANKSGIVING STORM. WE SHOULD
SEE INCREASING CLOUDINESS HOWEVER WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER
20S AND 30S...WITH TEMPERATURES INCREASING TOWARDS MORNING.

LOW PRESSURE HEADS UP THE EAST COAST ON WEDNESDAY. MODELS IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN BRINGING LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF
CAPE COD BY 00Z THURSDAY. AFTER THAT ECMWF A LITTLE SLOWER AND
DEEPER THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY. GENERAL TREND PAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS
HAS SHOWN THE ECMWF DRIFTING TOWARD THE GFS SOLUTION WHICH HAS
BEEN CONSISTENTLY COLDER...QUICKER AND WITH LESS QPF.

ALTHOUGH BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS MAY INITIALLY BE WARM ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT RAIN OR A MIX IN COASTAL AREAS...VERY DRY AIR IN PLACE
AT LOWER TO MID LEVELS WILL QUICKLY COOL AND EXPECT ANY MIXED
PRECIP AT THE ONSET TO GO OVER TO SNOW. THIS SHOULD PUSH INTO
SOUTHERN ZONES DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING DEPENDING ON HOW
LONG IT TAKES TO SATURATED THE LOWER AND MID LEVELS. SNOW WILL
GRADUALLY OVERSPREAD THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
MID AFTERNOON.

BIG QUESTION THEN BECOMES QPF AND AXIS OF HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION.
ECMWF SLOWLY TRENDING TOWARD LESSER AMOUNTS IN THE GFS BUT SOME
DIFFERENCES PERSIST. THIS DIFFERENCE PROBABLY DUE TO SLOWER AND
SLIGHTLY DEEPER ECMWF SOLUTION AND THE SUGGESTION OF SOME WEAK
BANDING SETTING UP ALONG THE COAST...WHICH THE GFS IS HINTING AT
BUT FURTHER EAST AND WEAKER. WILL TRY TO FIND A COMPROMISE BETWEEN
THE TWO FOR NOW. THIS WOULD GIVE MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA SOUTH
OF THE MOUNTAINS AND EAST OF THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY WARNING
CRITERIA SNOWFALL.

WITH WATCHES UP AND CONTINUING UNCERTAINTY...SEE NO REASON TO RUSH
WARNINGS. WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT HAVE A LOOK AT THE NEXT MODEL
RUNS AND REFINE THE WARNING AREA FROM THERE.

LOW PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY RACE NORTHEAST INTO THE MARITIMES
WEDNESDAY  NIGHT. EXPECT STEADIER HEAVIER PRECIP TO SHIFT EAST
AFTER MIDNIGHT LEAVING JUST OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW IN IT`S WAKE.
LOWS TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA WILL RANGE THROUGH THE 20S.

TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION ON THANKSGIVING
DAY KEEPING SNOW SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST DURING THE DAY AND INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. NOT LOOKING FOR MUCH IN THE WAY OF QPF BUT SOME
LOCATIONS MAY SEE SOME LIGHT ACCUMS IN THE AFTERNOON AS A WEAK
SHORTWAVE SWINGS THROUGH. WITH A FRESH SNOW PACK WILL SEE TEMPS
RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL READINGS WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID
20S TO MID 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
TROUGHING REMAINS OVERHEAD THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. SNOW
SHOWERS TAPER OFF OVER MUCH OF THE AREA BUT KEPT SOME LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND OFF THE COAST. COLDER AIR
FILTERS IN AS EARLY AS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
TEENS. TEMPERATURES WILL DEPEND ON HOW FAST THE CLOUD COVER IS
SCOURED OUT...AND FOR NOW HAVE KEPT AREAS OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS IN
THE 20S. FRIDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE ONE OF THE COLDEST NIGHTS SO FAR
THIS YEAR...WITH MANY AREAS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS...AND TEENS ALL
THE WAY TO THE COAST.

COLD AIR REMAINS DAMMED ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WITH SOME MODERATION SUNDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. IT
WILL STILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW SHOWERS HOWEVER...BUT THE
FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH QUICKLY AND DROPS SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION OVER THE MOUNTAINS. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT THE PATTERN REMAINS FICKLE
WITH A SYSTEM AFFECTING NEW ENGLAND EVERY 1-2 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...PLENTY OF CIRRUS DEBRIS FROM STORMS MOVING ALONG A
FRONT CURRENTLY OFFSHORE HAS MADE IT TO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
UNDER THIS DENSE FOG HAS FORMED IN A FEW SPOTS AND THE UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDS AREN`T INHIBITING THE RADIATION MUCH IF ANY. FOG SHOULD
DISSIPATE AFTER SUNRISE. SSW HAVE WEAKENED FINALLY BUT WILL
INCREASE AFTER MIXING RESUMES MID MORNING WITH WINDS MORE WSW.
OTHERWISE VFR.

LONG TERM...PERIOD OF LOW CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES BEGINNING
MIDDAY WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS A COASTAL STORM DROPS HEAVY
SNOW AND PERHAPS INITIALLY RAIN OR MIXED PRECIPITATION. ALL
TERMINALS WILL BE AFFECTED BY THE STORM WITH CONDITIONS LIFR FOR A
STRETCH BETWEEN 20Z WEDNESDAY AND 12Z THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...ALL MARINE ZONES NOW UNDER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...GALES WILL DEVELOP WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY FOR
THE OUTER WATERS. SCAS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THE BAYS FOR
WINDS AND SEAS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR MEZ007>009-012>014-018>028.
NH...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR NHZ001>010-013-014.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HANES
NEAR TERM...HANES
SHORT TERM...SINSABAUGH
LONG TERM...HANES
AVIATION...HANES
MARINE...HANES



000
FXUS61 KGYX 251207
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
707 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH OFFSHORE THIS MORNING. THE FRONT
WILL STALL OVER THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT
AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND. LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP ON THE FRONT OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON WEDNESDAY AND
TRACK NORTHEAST TO JUST SOUTH OF CAPE COD BY WEDNESDAY EVENING.
THE COASTAL LOW WILL CONTINUE NORTHEAST INTO THE MARITIMES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE
REGION ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON
FRIDAY. A WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON
SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
.UPDATE...
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM OVER THE AREA. HAVE ADJUSTED
TEMPERATURES WHICH CONTINUE TO BE WARMER THAN FORECAST... LIKELY
DUE TO MODELS NOT HANDLING RH (CLOUD COVER) WELL AND
OVERFORECASTING OF COLD AIR ADVECTION. ALSO INCREASED TODAY`S MAX
TEMPERATURES FOR THE LAST REASON MENTIONED. OTHERWISE FORECAST
REMAINS ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN KEEPING PRECIPITATION OFFSHORE UNTIL
NEARLY DAYBREAK WHEN JUST A FEW WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS MAY REACH
THE SHORE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE THANKSGIVING STORM. WE SHOULD
SEE INCREASING CLOUDINESS HOWEVER WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER
20S AND 30S...WITH TEMPERATURES INCREASING TOWARDS MORNING.

LOW PRESSURE HEADS UP THE EAST COAST ON WEDNESDAY. MODELS IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN BRINGING LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF
CAPE COD BY 00Z THURSDAY. AFTER THAT ECMWF A LITTLE SLOWER AND
DEEPER THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY. GENERAL TREND PAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS
HAS SHOWN THE ECMWF DRIFTING TOWARD THE GFS SOLUTION WHICH HAS
BEEN CONSISTENTLY COLDER...QUICKER AND WITH LESS QPF.

ALTHOUGH BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS MAY INITIALLY BE WARM ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT RAIN OR A MIX IN COASTAL AREAS...VERY DRY AIR IN PLACE
AT LOWER TO MID LEVELS WILL QUICKLY COOL AND EXPECT ANY MIXED
PRECIP AT THE ONSET TO GO OVER TO SNOW. THIS SHOULD PUSH INTO
SOUTHERN ZONES DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING DEPENDING ON HOW
LONG IT TAKES TO SATURATED THE LOWER AND MID LEVELS. SNOW WILL
GRADUALLY OVERSPREAD THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
MID AFTERNOON.

BIG QUESTION THEN BECOMES QPF AND AXIS OF HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION.
ECMWF SLOWLY TRENDING TOWARD LESSER AMOUNTS IN THE GFS BUT SOME
DIFFERENCES PERSIST. THIS DIFFERENCE PROBABLY DUE TO SLOWER AND
SLIGHTLY DEEPER ECMWF SOLUTION AND THE SUGGESTION OF SOME WEAK
BANDING SETTING UP ALONG THE COAST...WHICH THE GFS IS HINTING AT
BUT FURTHER EAST AND WEAKER. WILL TRY TO FIND A COMPROMISE BETWEEN
THE TWO FOR NOW. THIS WOULD GIVE MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA SOUTH
OF THE MOUNTAINS AND EAST OF THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY WARNING
CRITERIA SNOWFALL.

WITH WATCHES UP AND CONTINUING UNCERTAINTY...SEE NO REASON TO RUSH
WARNINGS. WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT HAVE A LOOK AT THE NEXT MODEL
RUNS AND REFINE THE WARNING AREA FROM THERE.

LOW PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY RACE NORTHEAST INTO THE MARITIMES
WEDNESDAY  NIGHT. EXPECT STEADIER HEAVIER PRECIP TO SHIFT EAST
AFTER MIDNIGHT LEAVING JUST OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW IN IT`S WAKE.
LOWS TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA WILL RANGE THROUGH THE 20S.

TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION ON THANKSGIVING
DAY KEEPING SNOW SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST DURING THE DAY AND INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. NOT LOOKING FOR MUCH IN THE WAY OF QPF BUT SOME
LOCATIONS MAY SEE SOME LIGHT ACCUMS IN THE AFTERNOON AS A WEAK
SHORTWAVE SWINGS THROUGH. WITH A FRESH SNOW PACK WILL SEE TEMPS
RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL READINGS WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID
20S TO MID 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
TROUGHING REMAINS OVERHEAD THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. SNOW
SHOWERS TAPER OFF OVER MUCH OF THE AREA BUT KEPT SOME LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND OFF THE COAST. COLDER AIR
FILTERS IN AS EARLY AS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
TEENS. TEMPERATURES WILL DEPEND ON HOW FAST THE CLOUD COVER IS
SCOURED OUT...AND FOR NOW HAVE KEPT AREAS OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS IN
THE 20S. FRIDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE ONE OF THE COLDEST NIGHTS SO FAR
THIS YEAR...WITH MANY AREAS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS...AND TEENS ALL
THE WAY TO THE COAST.

COLD AIR REMAINS DAMMED ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WITH SOME MODERATION SUNDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. IT
WILL STILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW SHOWERS HOWEVER...BUT THE
FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH QUICKLY AND DROPS SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION OVER THE MOUNTAINS. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT THE PATTERN REMAINS FICKLE
WITH A SYSTEM AFFECTING NEW ENGLAND EVERY 1-2 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...PLENTY OF CIRRUS DEBRIS FROM STORMS MOVING ALONG A
FRONT CURRENTLY OFFSHORE HAS MADE IT TO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
UNDER THIS DENSE FOG HAS FORMED IN A FEW SPOTS AND THE UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDS AREN`T INHIBITING THE RADIATION MUCH IF ANY. FOG SHOULD
DISSIPATE AFTER SUNRISE. SSW HAVE WEAKENED FINALLY BUT WILL
INCREASE AFTER MIXING RESUMES MID MORNING WITH WINDS MORE WSW.
OTHERWISE VFR.

LONG TERM...PERIOD OF LOW CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES BEGINNING
MIDDAY WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS A COASTAL STORM DROPS HEAVY
SNOW AND PERHAPS INITIALLY RAIN OR MIXED PRECIPITATION. ALL
TERMINALS WILL BE AFFECTED BY THE STORM WITH CONDITIONS LIFR FOR A
STRETCH BETWEEN 20Z WEDNESDAY AND 12Z THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...ALL MARINE ZONES NOW UNDER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...GALES WILL DEVELOP WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY FOR
THE OUTER WATERS. SCAS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THE BAYS FOR
WINDS AND SEAS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR MEZ007>009-012>014-018>028.
NH...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR NHZ001>010-013-014.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HANES
NEAR TERM...HANES
SHORT TERM...SINSABAUGH
LONG TERM...HANES
AVIATION...HANES
MARINE...HANES




000
FXUS61 KGYX 251204 AAB
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
704 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH OFFSHORE THIS MORNING. THE FRONT
WILL STALL OVER THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT
AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND. LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP ON THE FRONT OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON WEDNESDAY AND
TRACK NORTHEAST TO JUST SOUTH OF CAPE COD BY WEDNESDAY EVENING.
THE COASTAL LOW WILL CONTINUE NORTHEAST INTO THE MARITIMES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE
REGION ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON
FRIDAY. A WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON
SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
.UPDATE...
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM OVER THE AREA. HAVE ADJUSTED
TEMPERATURES WHICH CONTINUE TO BE WARMER THAN FORECAST... LIKELY
DUE TO MODELS NOT HANDLING RH (CLOUD COVER) WELL AND
OVERFORECASTING OF COLD AIR ADVECTION. ALSO INCREASED TODAY`S MAX
TEMPERATURES FOR THE LAST REASON MENTIONED. OTHERWISE FORECAST
REMAINS ON TRACK.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT MOVED THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT PROMPTING SCATTERED
SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS. THE BOUNDARY WILL MOVE OFFSHORE
SHORTLY. MOISTURE STREAMING OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO IS FEEDING A
BAND OF CONVECTION OFFSHORE. CIRRUS DEBRIS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE
STORMS IS NOW COVERING MUCH OF NEW ENGLAND. THESE CLOUDS HAVE NOT
INHIBITED RADIATIONAL COOLING AND DENSE FOG HAS FORMED IN A FEW
SITES.

EXPECTING A PARTLY SUNNY DAY TODAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
BEHIND THE FRONT. THERE SHOULD BE A FEW MORE CLOUDS OVER THE
NORTH AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY SKIRTS THE AREA. A STRONG JET STREAK ON
THE ORDER OF 190 KTS REMAINS OVERHEAD SO CIRRUS WILL REMAIN. HIGHS
WILL REACH THE UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO
UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S ELSEWHERE. WSW WINDS WILL BE A LITTLE GUSTY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN KEEPING PRECIPITATION OFFSHORE UNTIL
NEARLY DAYBREAK WHEN JUST A FEW WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS MAY REACH
THE SHORE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE THANKSGIVING STORM. WE SHOULD
SEE INCREASING CLOUDINESS HOWEVER WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER
20S AND 30S...WITH TEMPERATURES INCREASING TOWARDS MORNING.

LOW PRESSURE HEADS UP THE EAST COAST ON WEDNESDAY. MODELS IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN BRINGING LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF
CAPE COD BY 00Z THURSDAY. AFTER THAT ECMWF A LITTLE SLOWER AND
DEEPER THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY. GENERAL TREND PAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS
HAS SHOWN THE ECMWF DRIFTING TOWARD THE GFS SOLUTION WHICH HAS
BEEN CONSISTENTLY COLDER...QUICKER AND WITH LESS QPF.

ALTHOUGH BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS MAY INITIALLY BE WARM ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT RAIN OR A MIX IN COASTAL AREAS...VERY DRY AIR IN PLACE
AT LOWER TO MID LEVELS WILL QUICKLY COOL AND EXPECT ANY MIXED
PRECIP AT THE ONSET TO GO OVER TO SNOW. THIS SHOULD PUSH INTO
SOUTHERN ZONES DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING DEPENDING ON HOW
LONG IT TAKES TO SATURATED THE LOWER AND MID LEVELS. SNOW WILL
GRADUALLY OVERSPREAD THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
MID AFTERNOON.

BIG QUESTION THEN BECOMES QPF AND AXIS OF HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION.
ECMWF SLOWLY TRENDING TOWARD LESSER AMOUNTS IN THE GFS BUT SOME
DIFFERENCES PERSIST. THIS DIFFERENCE PROBABLY DUE TO SLOWER AND
SLIGHTLY DEEPER ECMWF SOLUTION AND THE SUGGESTION OF SOME WEAK
BANDING SETTING UP ALONG THE COAST...WHICH THE GFS IS HINTING AT
BUT FURTHER EAST AND WEAKER. WILL TRY TO FIND A COMPROMISE BETWEEN
THE TWO FOR NOW. THIS WOULD GIVE MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA SOUTH
OF THE MOUNTAINS AND EAST OF THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY WARNING
CRITERIA SNOWFALL.

WITH WATCHES UP AND CONTINUING UNCERTAINTY...SEE NO REASON TO RUSH
WARNINGS. WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT HAVE A LOOK AT THE NEXT MODEL
RUNS AND REFINE THE WARNING AREA FROM THERE.

LOW PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY RACE NORTHEAST INTO THE MARITIMES
WEDNESDAY  NIGHT. EXPECT STEADIER HEAVIER PRECIP TO SHIFT EAST
AFTER MIDNIGHT LEAVING JUST OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW IN IT`S WAKE.
LOWS TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA WILL RANGE THROUGH THE 20S.

TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION ON THANKSGIVING
DAY KEEPING SNOW SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST DURING THE DAY AND INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. NOT LOOKING FOR MUCH IN THE WAY OF QPF BUT SOME
LOCATIONS MAY SEE SOME LIGHT ACCUMS IN THE AFTERNOON AS A WEAK
SHORTWAVE SWINGS THROUGH. WITH A FRESH SNOW PACK WILL SEE TEMPS
RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL READINGS WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID
20S TO MID 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
TROUGHING REMAINS OVERHEAD THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. SNOW
SHOWERS TAPER OFF OVER MUCH OF THE AREA BUT KEPT SOME LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND OFF THE COAST. COLDER AIR
FILTERS IN AS EARLY AS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
TEENS. TEMPERATURES WILL DEPEND ON HOW FAST THE CLOUD COVER IS
SCOURED OUT...AND FOR NOW HAVE KEPT AREAS OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS IN
THE 20S. FRIDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE ONE OF THE COLDEST NIGHTS SO FAR
THIS YEAR...WITH MANY AREAS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS...AND TEENS ALL
THE WAY TO THE COAST.

COLD AIR REMAINS DAMMED ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WITH SOME MODERATION SUNDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. IT
WILL STILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW SHOWERS HOWEVER...BUT THE
FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH QUICKLY AND DROPS SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION OVER THE MOUNTAINS. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT THE PATTERN REMAINS FICKLE
WITH A SYSTEM AFFECTING NEW ENGLAND EVERY 1-2 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...PLENTY OF CIRRUS DEBRIS FROM STORMS MOVING ALONG A
FRONT CURRENTLY OFFSHORE HAS MADE IT TO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
UNDER THIS DENSE FOG HAS FORMED IN A FEW SPOTS AND THE UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDS AREN`T INHIBITING THE RADIATION MUCH IF ANY. FOG SHOULD
DISSIPATE AFTER SUNRISE. SSW HAVE WEAKENED FINALLY BUT WILL
INCREASE AFTER MIXING RESUMES MID MORNING WITH WINDS MORE WSW.
OTHERWISE VFR.

LONG TERM...PERIOD OF LOW CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES BEGINNING
MIDDAY WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS A COASTAL STORM DROPS HEAVY
SNOW AND PERHAPS INITIALLY RAIN OR MIXED PRECIPITATION. ALL
TERMINALS WILL BE AFFECTED BY THE STORM WITH CONDITIONS LIFR FOR A
STRETCH BETWEEN 20Z WEDNESDAY AND 12Z THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...ALL MARINE ZONES NOW UNDER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...GALES WILL DEVELOP WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY FOR
THE OUTER WATERS. SCAS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THE BAYS FOR
WINDS AND SEAS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR MEZ007>009-012>014-018>028.
NH...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR NHZ001>010-013-014.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

HANES/SINSABAUGH



000
FXUS61 KCAR 251154
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
654 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST FROM NORTHERN QUEBEC TO EAST OF
LABRADOR TODAY...WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
WEST TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE FROM THE COASTAL MID ATLANTIC STATES
WILL THEN LIFT ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EXIT
ACROSS THE MARITIMES THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN LATER
THANKSGIVING DAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
630 AM UPDATE: BASED ON 6 AM OBS...WHICH SHOWED TEMPS MILDER BY A
FEW DEG ERLY THIS MORN THAN THE PRIOR FCST OF LAST NGT`S OVRNGT
LOWS...WE ADJUSTED TDY`S FCST HI TEMPS BY A FEW DEG F ACROSS ALL
OF THE REGION. FCST HI TEMPS ARE STILL XPCTD TO OCCUR ERLY...WITH
MDTLY STRONG LLVL COLD ADVCN XPCTD TO COUNTER NORMAL DIURNAL HTG
BY AFTN...RESULTING IN SLOWLY FALLING TEMPS DURG THE AFTN HRS.
OTHERWISE...WE STILL XPCT WINDS TO BE AN ISSUE ACROSS THE FAR N
UNTIL MID AFTN.

ORGNL DISC: BIG CONCERN TODAY IS STRONG WINDS IN THE FAR NORTH.
THE COMBO OF THE TRAILING STRONG PRES GRAD OF THE DEPARTING NRN QB
STORM...A STRONG LLVL WSW TO ENE JETLET OF 45 TO 55 KT EXTENDING
FROM QB CITY TO NEAR FVE AND STEEP LLVL TEMP LAPSE RATES WILL CONT
TIL INTO THE AFTN HR OVR THIS PTN OF REGION. WIND GUSTS AT FVE
APT... AN ELEVATED SITE IS ALREADY GUSTING TO 50 MPH ERLY THIS
MORN. ELSEWHERE TO THE S...WIND GUST POTENTIAL TDY WILL BE
SOMEWHAT LESS. WINDS SHOULD SLOWLY DIMINISH LATE THIS AFTN INTO
THIS EVE. OTHERWISE...MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO FCST CLD CVR
AND HI/LOW AND HRLY TEMPS TDY THRU TNGT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
FOR WEDNESDAY...CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM THAT WILL ORGANIZE ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST AND
RAPIDLY SHOOT TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN TIP OF NOVA SCOTIA BY LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE LOW WILL BE A FAST-MOVER AND THE KEY WILL BE
THE EXACT TRACK. A TRACK FURTHER EAST AS SHOWN BY GEMS AND SREF
WILL REDUCE ADVERTISED SNOW AMOUNTS. FOR THIS FORECAST...SNOW
AMOUNTS ARE PREDICATED ON A TRACK TAKING THE LOW JUST SOUTH OF
YARMOUTH IN NOVA SCOTIA. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY ON THE TRACK...WILL
MAINTAIN THE WATCH RATHER THAN COMMITTING TO WARNINGS AND
ADVISORIES AT THIS TIME.

AS THE SNOW STARTS WEDNESDAY...THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL STILL BE
WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN. HOWEVER...EVAPORATIVE COOLING AND COLD AIR
BEING WRAPPED INTO THE STORM WILL CAUSE PRECIP TO CHANGE TO ALL
SNOW BY LATE AFTERNOON ALL THE WAY TO THE COAST. THE FIRST INCH OR
TWO WILL FALL BY EARLY EVENING...BUT THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS PROGGED
FOR THE 7PM TO 1AM TIMEFRAME FOR BANGOR AND DOWN EAST WHEN 5 TO 7
INCHES COULD FALL. SNOW WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF LATER IN THE
NIGHT AND END EARLY THANKSGIVING MORNING. STORM TOTALS FOR BANGOR
AND DOWN EAST ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 9 TO 11 INCHES FOR THE MOST
PART...IF THE FORECAST TRACK HOLDS. HAVE INCREASED AMOUNTS ALONG
THE COAST FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST CYCLE. ON THE OTHER
HAND...HAVE REDUCED AMOUNTS IN AROOSTOOK COUNTY WITH JUST A COUPLE
OF INCHES ANTICIPATED IN THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY.

ON THANKSGIVING DAY...SNOW ENDS IN THE MORNING AND CLOUDS LINGER
UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S NORTH TO
LOWER 30S SOUTH. WINDS WILL TEND TO DECREASE DURING THE DAY AND
THIS POSES THE THREAT OF A STRONG RADIATIONAL INVERSION FOR
THURSDAY. AT THIS TIME...AM GOING WITH GUIDANCE LOWS IN THE
TEENS...BUT ZERO TO LOW SINGLE DIGITS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
CLEARING...FRESH SNOW COVER AND LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO THE AREA FRIDAY. EXPECT CLOUDY
SKIES AND A FEW FLURRIES AS AN UPPER TROUGH CROSSES FRIDAY. HIGHS
WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S.  THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A
VERY COLD FRIDAY NIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD SINGLE DIGITS AND A FEW
ZERO READINGS POSSIBLE. WENT WELL BELOW MOST OF THE GUIDANCE. THE
COLD HOLDS ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS JUST A FEW DEGREES WARMER UNDER
INCREASING HIGH OVERRUNNING CLOUDS. A WARM FRONT CROSSES SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW...MOSTLY IN THE CROWN OF MAINE. LOWS
WILL BE EARLY SATURDAY EVENING WITH RISING TEMPERATURES LATER.
A GOOD WARMUP WILL OCCUR FOR SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE
UPPER 30S NORTH AND MID 40S ALONG THE COAST. THE COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON OR EVENING WITH LITTLE PRECIPITATION.
THERE IS SOME QUESTION WHETHER A WAVE FORMS ALONG THE FRONT ON
MONDAY AND BRINGS SNOW TO BANGOR AND DOWN EAST. HOWEVER...AT THIS
TIME CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW IN THIS DEVELOPMENT AND WILL COVER
WITH CHANCE POPS FOR BANGOR AND HANCOCK COUNTY.
&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR XPCTD ALL TAF SITES...WITH MVFR SC CLGS POSSIBLE
ATTMS LATE TDY INTO TNGT OVR FAR NRN TAF SITES...SPCLY KFVE.

SHORT TERM: VFR TO START WEDNESDAY. BGR AND BHB WILL BECOME LIFR
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE LIFR SPREADS TO ALL SITES IN THE
EVENING. VFR RETURNS TO BGR AND BHB THURSDAY MORNING INTO
SATURDAY. MVFR CIGS WILL BE IN AND OUT FOR HUL NORTHWARD DURING
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WE HAVE CONTD THE SCA FOR ALL OF THE WATERS TIL 23Z...
WITH IT POSSIBLE THAT SCA CONDITIONS WINDING DOWN A LITTLE SOONER
OVR THE INNER BAY/HARBOR MZ052. KEPT CLOSE TO FCST WW3 WV HT
GUIDANCE FOR FCST WV HTS THIS UPDATE.

SHORT TERM: EXPECT A STRONG GALE LATER WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. AN SCA WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 3 PM EST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR MEZ001>004.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR MEZ005-006-010-011-015>017-029>032.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ050>052.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...MCW
LONG TERM...MCW
AVIATION...VJN/MCW
MARINE...VJN/MCW




000
FXUS61 KCAR 251154
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
654 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST FROM NORTHERN QUEBEC TO EAST OF
LABRADOR TODAY...WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
WEST TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE FROM THE COASTAL MID ATLANTIC STATES
WILL THEN LIFT ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EXIT
ACROSS THE MARITIMES THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN LATER
THANKSGIVING DAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
630 AM UPDATE: BASED ON 6 AM OBS...WHICH SHOWED TEMPS MILDER BY A
FEW DEG ERLY THIS MORN THAN THE PRIOR FCST OF LAST NGT`S OVRNGT
LOWS...WE ADJUSTED TDY`S FCST HI TEMPS BY A FEW DEG F ACROSS ALL
OF THE REGION. FCST HI TEMPS ARE STILL XPCTD TO OCCUR ERLY...WITH
MDTLY STRONG LLVL COLD ADVCN XPCTD TO COUNTER NORMAL DIURNAL HTG
BY AFTN...RESULTING IN SLOWLY FALLING TEMPS DURG THE AFTN HRS.
OTHERWISE...WE STILL XPCT WINDS TO BE AN ISSUE ACROSS THE FAR N
UNTIL MID AFTN.

ORGNL DISC: BIG CONCERN TODAY IS STRONG WINDS IN THE FAR NORTH.
THE COMBO OF THE TRAILING STRONG PRES GRAD OF THE DEPARTING NRN QB
STORM...A STRONG LLVL WSW TO ENE JETLET OF 45 TO 55 KT EXTENDING
FROM QB CITY TO NEAR FVE AND STEEP LLVL TEMP LAPSE RATES WILL CONT
TIL INTO THE AFTN HR OVR THIS PTN OF REGION. WIND GUSTS AT FVE
APT... AN ELEVATED SITE IS ALREADY GUSTING TO 50 MPH ERLY THIS
MORN. ELSEWHERE TO THE S...WIND GUST POTENTIAL TDY WILL BE
SOMEWHAT LESS. WINDS SHOULD SLOWLY DIMINISH LATE THIS AFTN INTO
THIS EVE. OTHERWISE...MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO FCST CLD CVR
AND HI/LOW AND HRLY TEMPS TDY THRU TNGT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
FOR WEDNESDAY...CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM THAT WILL ORGANIZE ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST AND
RAPIDLY SHOOT TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN TIP OF NOVA SCOTIA BY LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE LOW WILL BE A FAST-MOVER AND THE KEY WILL BE
THE EXACT TRACK. A TRACK FURTHER EAST AS SHOWN BY GEMS AND SREF
WILL REDUCE ADVERTISED SNOW AMOUNTS. FOR THIS FORECAST...SNOW
AMOUNTS ARE PREDICATED ON A TRACK TAKING THE LOW JUST SOUTH OF
YARMOUTH IN NOVA SCOTIA. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY ON THE TRACK...WILL
MAINTAIN THE WATCH RATHER THAN COMMITTING TO WARNINGS AND
ADVISORIES AT THIS TIME.

AS THE SNOW STARTS WEDNESDAY...THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL STILL BE
WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN. HOWEVER...EVAPORATIVE COOLING AND COLD AIR
BEING WRAPPED INTO THE STORM WILL CAUSE PRECIP TO CHANGE TO ALL
SNOW BY LATE AFTERNOON ALL THE WAY TO THE COAST. THE FIRST INCH OR
TWO WILL FALL BY EARLY EVENING...BUT THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS PROGGED
FOR THE 7PM TO 1AM TIMEFRAME FOR BANGOR AND DOWN EAST WHEN 5 TO 7
INCHES COULD FALL. SNOW WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF LATER IN THE
NIGHT AND END EARLY THANKSGIVING MORNING. STORM TOTALS FOR BANGOR
AND DOWN EAST ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 9 TO 11 INCHES FOR THE MOST
PART...IF THE FORECAST TRACK HOLDS. HAVE INCREASED AMOUNTS ALONG
THE COAST FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST CYCLE. ON THE OTHER
HAND...HAVE REDUCED AMOUNTS IN AROOSTOOK COUNTY WITH JUST A COUPLE
OF INCHES ANTICIPATED IN THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY.

ON THANKSGIVING DAY...SNOW ENDS IN THE MORNING AND CLOUDS LINGER
UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S NORTH TO
LOWER 30S SOUTH. WINDS WILL TEND TO DECREASE DURING THE DAY AND
THIS POSES THE THREAT OF A STRONG RADIATIONAL INVERSION FOR
THURSDAY. AT THIS TIME...AM GOING WITH GUIDANCE LOWS IN THE
TEENS...BUT ZERO TO LOW SINGLE DIGITS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
CLEARING...FRESH SNOW COVER AND LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO THE AREA FRIDAY. EXPECT CLOUDY
SKIES AND A FEW FLURRIES AS AN UPPER TROUGH CROSSES FRIDAY. HIGHS
WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S.  THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A
VERY COLD FRIDAY NIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD SINGLE DIGITS AND A FEW
ZERO READINGS POSSIBLE. WENT WELL BELOW MOST OF THE GUIDANCE. THE
COLD HOLDS ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS JUST A FEW DEGREES WARMER UNDER
INCREASING HIGH OVERRUNNING CLOUDS. A WARM FRONT CROSSES SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW...MOSTLY IN THE CROWN OF MAINE. LOWS
WILL BE EARLY SATURDAY EVENING WITH RISING TEMPERATURES LATER.
A GOOD WARMUP WILL OCCUR FOR SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE
UPPER 30S NORTH AND MID 40S ALONG THE COAST. THE COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON OR EVENING WITH LITTLE PRECIPITATION.
THERE IS SOME QUESTION WHETHER A WAVE FORMS ALONG THE FRONT ON
MONDAY AND BRINGS SNOW TO BANGOR AND DOWN EAST. HOWEVER...AT THIS
TIME CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW IN THIS DEVELOPMENT AND WILL COVER
WITH CHANCE POPS FOR BANGOR AND HANCOCK COUNTY.
&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR XPCTD ALL TAF SITES...WITH MVFR SC CLGS POSSIBLE
ATTMS LATE TDY INTO TNGT OVR FAR NRN TAF SITES...SPCLY KFVE.

SHORT TERM: VFR TO START WEDNESDAY. BGR AND BHB WILL BECOME LIFR
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE LIFR SPREADS TO ALL SITES IN THE
EVENING. VFR RETURNS TO BGR AND BHB THURSDAY MORNING INTO
SATURDAY. MVFR CIGS WILL BE IN AND OUT FOR HUL NORTHWARD DURING
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WE HAVE CONTD THE SCA FOR ALL OF THE WATERS TIL 23Z...
WITH IT POSSIBLE THAT SCA CONDITIONS WINDING DOWN A LITTLE SOONER
OVR THE INNER BAY/HARBOR MZ052. KEPT CLOSE TO FCST WW3 WV HT
GUIDANCE FOR FCST WV HTS THIS UPDATE.

SHORT TERM: EXPECT A STRONG GALE LATER WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. AN SCA WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 3 PM EST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR MEZ001>004.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR MEZ005-006-010-011-015>017-029>032.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ050>052.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...MCW
LONG TERM...MCW
AVIATION...VJN/MCW
MARINE...VJN/MCW



000
FXUS61 KCAR 250932
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
432 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST FROM NORTHERN QUEBEC TO EAST OF
LABRADOR TODAY...WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
WEST TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE FROM THE COASTAL MID ATLANTIC STATES
WILL THEN LIFT ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EXIT
ACROSS THE MARITIMES THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN LATER
THANKSGIVING DAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
BIG CONCERN TODAY IS STRONG WINDS IN THE FAR NORTH. THE COMBO OF
THE TRAILING STRONG PRES GRAD OF THE DEPARTING NRN QB STORM...A
STRONG LLVL WSW TO ENE JETLET OF 45 TO 55 KT EXTENDING FROM QB
CITY TO NEAR FVE AND STEEP LLVL TEMP LAPSE RATES WILL CONT TIL
INTO THE AFTN HR OVR THIS PTN OF REGION. WIND GUSTS AT FVE APT...
AN ELEVATED SITE IS ALREADY GUSTING TO 50 MPH ERLY THIS MORN.
ELSEWHERE TO THE S...WIND GUST POTENTIAL TDY WILL BE SOMEWHAT
LESS. WINDS SHOULD SLOWLY DIMINISH LATE THIS AFTN INTO THIS EVE.
OTHERWISE...MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO FCST CLD CVR AND
HI/LOW AND HRLY TEMPS TDY THRU TNGT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
FOR WEDNESDAY...CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM THAT WILL ORGANIZE ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST AND
RAPIDLY SHOOT TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN TIP OF NOVA SCOTIA BY LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE LOW WILL BE A FAST-MOVER AND THE KEY WILL BE
THE EXACT TRACK. A TRACK FURTHER EAST AS SHOWN BY GEMS AND SREF
WILL REDUCE ADVERTISED SNOW AMOUNTS. FOR THIS FORECAST...SNOW
AMOUNTS ARE PREDICATED ON A TRACK TAKING THE LOW JUST SOUTH OF
YARMOUTH IN NOVA SCOTIA. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY ON THE TRACK...WILL
MAINTAIN THE WATCH RATHER THAN COMMITTING TO WARNINGS AND
ADVISORIES AT THIS TIME.

AS THE SNOW STARTS WEDNESDAY...THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL STILL BE
WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN. HOWEVER...EVAPORATIVE COOLING AND COLD AIR
BEING WRAPPED INTO THE STORM WILL CAUSE PRECIP TO CHANGE TO ALL
SNOW BY LATE AFTERNOON ALL THE WAY TO THE COAST. THE FIRST INCH OR
TWO WILL FALL BY EARLY EVENING...BUT THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS PROGGED
FOR THE 7PM TO 1AM TIMEFRAME FOR BANGOR AND DOWN EAST WHEN 5 TO 7
INCHES COULD FALL. SNOW WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF LATER IN THE
NIGHT AND END EARLY THANKSGIVING MORNING. STORM TOTALS FOR BANGOR
AND DOWN EAST ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 9 TO 11 INCHES FOR THE MOST
PART...IF THE FORECAST TRACK HOLDS. HAVE INCREASED AMOUNTS ALONG
THE COAST FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST CYCLE. ON THE OTHER
HAND...HAVE REDUCED AMOUNTS IN AROOSTOOK COUNTY WITH JUST A COUPLE
OF INCHES ANTICIPATED IN THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY.

ON THANKSGIVING DAY...SNOW ENDS IN THE MORNING AND CLOUDS LINGER
UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S NORTH TO
LOWER 30S SOUTH. WINDS WILL TEND TO DECREASE DURING THE DAY AND
THIS POSES THE THREAT OF A STRONG RADIATIONAL INVERSION FOR
THURSDAY. AT THIS TIME...AM GOING WITH GUIDANCE LOWS IN THE
TEENS...BUT ZERO TO LOW SINGLE DIGITS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
CLEARING...FRESH SNOW COVER AND LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO THE AREA FRIDAY. EXPECT CLOUDY
SKIES AND A FEW FLURRIES AS AN UPPER TROUGH CROSSES FRIDAY. HIGHS
WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S.  THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A
VERY COLD FRIDAY NIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD SINGLE DIGITS AND A FEW
ZERO READINGS POSSIBLE. WENT WELL BELOW MOST OF THE GUIDANCE. THE
COLD HOLDS ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS JUST A FEW DEGREES WARMER UNDER
INCREASING HIGH OVERRUNNING CLOUDS. A WARM FRONT CROSSES SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW...MOSTLY IN THE CROWN OF MAINE. LOWS
WILL BE EARLY SATURDAY EVENING WITH RISING TEMPERATURES LATER.
A GOOD WARMUP WILL OCCUR FOR SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE
UPPER 30S NORTH AND MID 40S ALONG THE COAST. THE COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON OR EVENING WITH LITTLE PRECIPITATION.
THERE IS SOME QUESTION WHETHER A WAVE FORMS ALONG THE FRONT ON
MONDAY AND BRINGS SNOW TO BANGOR AND DOWN EAST. HOWEVER...AT THIS
TIME CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW IN THIS DEVELOPMENT AND WILL COVER
WITH CHANCE POPS FOR BANGOR AND HANCOCK COUNTY.
&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR XPCTD ALL TAF SITES...WITH MVFR SC CLGS POSSIBLE
ATTMS LATE TDY INTO TNGT OVR FAR NRN TAF SITES...SPCLY KFVE.

SHORT TERM: VFR TO START WEDNESDAY. BGR AND BHB WILL BECOME LIFR
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE LIFR SPREADS TO ALL SITES IN THE
EVENING. VFR RETURNS TO BGR AND BHB THURSDAY MORNING INTO
SATURDAY. MVFR CIGS WILL BE IN AND OUT FOR HUL NORTHWARD DURING
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WE HAVE CONTD THE SCA FOR ALL OF THE WATERS TIL 23Z...
WITH IT POSSIBLE THAT SCA CONDITIONS WINDING DOWN A LITTLE SOONER
OVR THE INNER BAY/HARBOR MZ052. KEPT CLOSE TO FCST WW3 WV HT
GUIDANCE FOR FCST WV HTS THIS UPDATE.

SHORT TERM: EXPECT A STRONG GALE LATER WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. AN SCA WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 3 PM EST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR MEZ001>004.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR MEZ005-006-010-011-015>017-029>032.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ050>052.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...MCW
LONG TERM...MCW
AVIATION...VJN/MCW
MARINE...VJN/MCW




000
FXUS61 KCAR 250932
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
432 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST FROM NORTHERN QUEBEC TO EAST OF
LABRADOR TODAY...WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
WEST TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE FROM THE COASTAL MID ATLANTIC STATES
WILL THEN LIFT ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EXIT
ACROSS THE MARITIMES THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN LATER
THANKSGIVING DAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
BIG CONCERN TODAY IS STRONG WINDS IN THE FAR NORTH. THE COMBO OF
THE TRAILING STRONG PRES GRAD OF THE DEPARTING NRN QB STORM...A
STRONG LLVL WSW TO ENE JETLET OF 45 TO 55 KT EXTENDING FROM QB
CITY TO NEAR FVE AND STEEP LLVL TEMP LAPSE RATES WILL CONT TIL
INTO THE AFTN HR OVR THIS PTN OF REGION. WIND GUSTS AT FVE APT...
AN ELEVATED SITE IS ALREADY GUSTING TO 50 MPH ERLY THIS MORN.
ELSEWHERE TO THE S...WIND GUST POTENTIAL TDY WILL BE SOMEWHAT
LESS. WINDS SHOULD SLOWLY DIMINISH LATE THIS AFTN INTO THIS EVE.
OTHERWISE...MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO FCST CLD CVR AND
HI/LOW AND HRLY TEMPS TDY THRU TNGT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
FOR WEDNESDAY...CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM THAT WILL ORGANIZE ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST AND
RAPIDLY SHOOT TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN TIP OF NOVA SCOTIA BY LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE LOW WILL BE A FAST-MOVER AND THE KEY WILL BE
THE EXACT TRACK. A TRACK FURTHER EAST AS SHOWN BY GEMS AND SREF
WILL REDUCE ADVERTISED SNOW AMOUNTS. FOR THIS FORECAST...SNOW
AMOUNTS ARE PREDICATED ON A TRACK TAKING THE LOW JUST SOUTH OF
YARMOUTH IN NOVA SCOTIA. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY ON THE TRACK...WILL
MAINTAIN THE WATCH RATHER THAN COMMITTING TO WARNINGS AND
ADVISORIES AT THIS TIME.

AS THE SNOW STARTS WEDNESDAY...THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL STILL BE
WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN. HOWEVER...EVAPORATIVE COOLING AND COLD AIR
BEING WRAPPED INTO THE STORM WILL CAUSE PRECIP TO CHANGE TO ALL
SNOW BY LATE AFTERNOON ALL THE WAY TO THE COAST. THE FIRST INCH OR
TWO WILL FALL BY EARLY EVENING...BUT THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS PROGGED
FOR THE 7PM TO 1AM TIMEFRAME FOR BANGOR AND DOWN EAST WHEN 5 TO 7
INCHES COULD FALL. SNOW WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF LATER IN THE
NIGHT AND END EARLY THANKSGIVING MORNING. STORM TOTALS FOR BANGOR
AND DOWN EAST ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 9 TO 11 INCHES FOR THE MOST
PART...IF THE FORECAST TRACK HOLDS. HAVE INCREASED AMOUNTS ALONG
THE COAST FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST CYCLE. ON THE OTHER
HAND...HAVE REDUCED AMOUNTS IN AROOSTOOK COUNTY WITH JUST A COUPLE
OF INCHES ANTICIPATED IN THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY.

ON THANKSGIVING DAY...SNOW ENDS IN THE MORNING AND CLOUDS LINGER
UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S NORTH TO
LOWER 30S SOUTH. WINDS WILL TEND TO DECREASE DURING THE DAY AND
THIS POSES THE THREAT OF A STRONG RADIATIONAL INVERSION FOR
THURSDAY. AT THIS TIME...AM GOING WITH GUIDANCE LOWS IN THE
TEENS...BUT ZERO TO LOW SINGLE DIGITS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
CLEARING...FRESH SNOW COVER AND LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO THE AREA FRIDAY. EXPECT CLOUDY
SKIES AND A FEW FLURRIES AS AN UPPER TROUGH CROSSES FRIDAY. HIGHS
WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S.  THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A
VERY COLD FRIDAY NIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD SINGLE DIGITS AND A FEW
ZERO READINGS POSSIBLE. WENT WELL BELOW MOST OF THE GUIDANCE. THE
COLD HOLDS ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS JUST A FEW DEGREES WARMER UNDER
INCREASING HIGH OVERRUNNING CLOUDS. A WARM FRONT CROSSES SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW...MOSTLY IN THE CROWN OF MAINE. LOWS
WILL BE EARLY SATURDAY EVENING WITH RISING TEMPERATURES LATER.
A GOOD WARMUP WILL OCCUR FOR SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE
UPPER 30S NORTH AND MID 40S ALONG THE COAST. THE COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON OR EVENING WITH LITTLE PRECIPITATION.
THERE IS SOME QUESTION WHETHER A WAVE FORMS ALONG THE FRONT ON
MONDAY AND BRINGS SNOW TO BANGOR AND DOWN EAST. HOWEVER...AT THIS
TIME CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW IN THIS DEVELOPMENT AND WILL COVER
WITH CHANCE POPS FOR BANGOR AND HANCOCK COUNTY.
&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR XPCTD ALL TAF SITES...WITH MVFR SC CLGS POSSIBLE
ATTMS LATE TDY INTO TNGT OVR FAR NRN TAF SITES...SPCLY KFVE.

SHORT TERM: VFR TO START WEDNESDAY. BGR AND BHB WILL BECOME LIFR
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE LIFR SPREADS TO ALL SITES IN THE
EVENING. VFR RETURNS TO BGR AND BHB THURSDAY MORNING INTO
SATURDAY. MVFR CIGS WILL BE IN AND OUT FOR HUL NORTHWARD DURING
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WE HAVE CONTD THE SCA FOR ALL OF THE WATERS TIL 23Z...
WITH IT POSSIBLE THAT SCA CONDITIONS WINDING DOWN A LITTLE SOONER
OVR THE INNER BAY/HARBOR MZ052. KEPT CLOSE TO FCST WW3 WV HT
GUIDANCE FOR FCST WV HTS THIS UPDATE.

SHORT TERM: EXPECT A STRONG GALE LATER WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. AN SCA WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 3 PM EST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR MEZ001>004.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR MEZ005-006-010-011-015>017-029>032.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ050>052.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...MCW
LONG TERM...MCW
AVIATION...VJN/MCW
MARINE...VJN/MCW



000
FXUS61 KGYX 250836
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
336 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH OFFSHORE THIS MORNING. THE FRONT
WILL STALL OVER THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT
AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND. LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP ON THE FRONT OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON WEDNESDAY AND
TRACK NORTHEAST TO JUST SOUTH OF CAPE COD BY WEDNESDAY EVENING.
THE COASTAL LOW WILL CONTINUE NORTHEAST INTO THE MARITIMES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE
REGION ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON
FRIDAY. A WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON
SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A COLD FRONT MOVED THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT PROMPTING SCATTERED
SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS. THE BOUNDARY WILL MOVE OFFSHORE
SHORTLY. MOISTURE STREAMING OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO IS FEEDING A
BAND OF CONVECTION OFFSHORE. CIRRUS DEBRIS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE
STORMS IS NOW COVERING MUCH OF NEW ENGLAND. THESE CLOUDS HAVE NOT
INHIBITED RADIATIONAL COOLING AND DENSE FOG HAS FORMED IN A FEW
SITES.

EXPECTING A PARTLY SUNNY DAY TODAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
BEHIND THE FRONT. THERE SHOULD BE A FEW MORE CLOUDS OVER THE
NORTH AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY SKIRTS THE AREA. A STRONG JET STREAK ON
THE ORDER OF 190 KTS REMAINS OVERHEAD SO CIRRUS WILL REMAIN. HIGHS
WILL REACH THE UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO
UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S ELSEWHERE. WSW WINDS WILL BE A LITTLE GUSTY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN KEEPING PRECIPITATION OFFSHORE UNTIL
NEARLY DAYBREAK WHEN JUST A FEW WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS MAY REACH
THE SHORE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE THANKSGIVING STORM. WE SHOULD
SEE INCREASING CLOUDINESS HOWEVER WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER
20S AND 30S...WITH TEMPERATURES INCREASING TOWARDS MORNING.

LOW PRESSURE HEADS UP THE EAST COAST ON WEDNESDAY. MODELS IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN BRINGING LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF
CAPE COD BY 00Z THURSDAY. AFTER THAT ECMWF A LITTLE SLOWER AND
DEEPER THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY. GENERAL TREND PAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS
HAS SHOWN THE ECMWF DRIFTING TOWARD THE GFS SOLUTION WHICH HAS
BEEN CONSISTENTLY COLDER...QUICKER AND WITH LESS QPF.

ALTHOUGH BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS MAY INITIALLY BE WARM ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT RAIN OR A MIX IN COASTAL AREAS...VERY DRY AIR IN PLACE
AT LOWER TO MID LEVELS WILL QUICKLY COOL AND EXPECT ANY MIXED
PRECIP AT THE ONSET TO GO OVER TO SNOW. THIS SHOULD PUSH INTO
SOUTHERN ZONES DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING DEPENDING ON HOW
LONG IT TAKES TO SATURATED THE LOWER AND MID LEVELS. SNOW WILL
GRADUALLY OVERSPREAD THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
MID AFTERNOON.

BIG QUESTION THEN BECOMES QPF AND AXIS OF HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION.
ECMWF SLOWLY TRENDING TOWARD LESSER AMOUNTS IN THE GFS BUT SOME
DIFFERENCES PERSIST. THIS DIFFERENCE PROBABLY DUE TO SLOWER AND
SLIGHTLY DEEPER ECMWF SOLUTION AND THE SUGGESTION OF SOME WEAK
BANDING SETTING UP ALONG THE COAST...WHICH THE GFS IS HINTING AT
BUT FURTHER EAST AND WEAKER. WILL TRY TO FIND A COMPROMISE BETWEEN
THE TWO FOR NOW. THIS WOULD GIVE MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA SOUTH
OF THE MOUNTAINS AND EAST OF THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY WARNING
CRITERIA SNOWFALL.

WITH WATCHES UP AND CONTINUING UNCERTAINTY...SEE NO REASON TO RUSH
WARNINGS. WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT HAVE A LOOK AT THE NEXT MODEL
RUNS AND REFINE THE WARNING AREA FROM THERE.

LOW PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY RACE NORTHEAST INTO THE MARITIMES
WEDNESDAY  NIGHT. EXPECT STEADIER HEAVIER PRECIP TO SHIFT EAST
AFTER MIDNIGHT LEAVING JUST OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW IN IT`S WAKE.
LOWS TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA WILL RANGE THROUGH THE 20S.

TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION ON THANKSGIVING
DAY KEEPING SNOW SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST DURING THE DAY AND INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. NOT LOOKING FOR MUCH IN THE WAY OF QPF BUT SOME
LOCATIONS MAY SEE SOME LIGHT ACCUMS IN THE AFTERNOON AS A WEAK
SHORTWAVE SWINGS THROUGH. WITH A FRESH SNOW PACK WILL SEE TEMPS
RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL READINGS WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID
20S TO MID 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
TROUGHING REMAINS OVERHEAD THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. SNOW
SHOWERS TAPER OFF OVER MUCH OF THE AREA BUT KEPT SOME LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND OFF THE COAST. COLDER AIR
FILTERS IN AS EARLY AS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
TEENS. TEMPERATURES WILL DEPEND ON HOW FAST THE CLOUD COVER IS
SCOURED OUT...AND FOR NOW HAVE KEPT AREAS OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS IN
THE 20S. FRIDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE ONE OF THE COLDEST NIGHTS SO FAR
THIS YEAR...WITH MANY AREAS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS...AND TEENS ALL
THE WAY TO THE COAST.

COLD AIR REMAINS DAMMED ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WITH SOME MODERATION SUNDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. IT
WILL STILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW SHOWERS HOWEVER...BUT THE
FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH QUICKLY AND DROPS SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION OVER THE MOUNTAINS. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT THE PATTERN REMAINS FICKLE
WITH A SYSTEM AFFECTING NEW ENGLAND EVERY 1-2 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...PLENTY OF CIRRUS DEBRIS FROM STORMS MOVING ALONG A
FRONT CURRENTLY OFFSHORE HAS MADE IT TO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
UNDER THIS DENSE FOG HAS FORMED IN A FEW SPOTS AND THE UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDS AREN`T INHIBITING THE RADIATION MUCH IF ANY. FOG SHOULD
DISSIPATE AFTER SUNRISE. SSW HAVE WEAKENED FINALLY BUT WILL
INCREASE AFTER MIXING RESUMES MID MORNING WITH WINDS MORE WSW.
OTHERWISE VFR.

LONG TERM...PERIOD OF LOW CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES BEGINNING
MIDDAY WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS A COASTAL STORM DROPS HEAVY
SNOW AND PERHAPS INITIALLY RAIN OR MIXED PRECIPITATION. ALL
TERMINALS WILL BE AFFECTED BY THE STORM WITH CONDITIONS LIFR FOR A
STRETCH BETWEEN 20Z WEDNESDAY AND 12Z THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...ALL MARINE ZONES NOW UNDER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...GALES WILL DEVELOP WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY FOR
THE OUTER WATERS. SCAS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THE BAYS FOR
WINDS AND SEAS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR MEZ007>009-012>014-018>028.
NH...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR NHZ001>010-013-014.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

HANES/SINSABAUGH



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