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000
FXUS61 KCAR 271645
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1245 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TODAY AND
TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK WELL SOUTH OF THE GULF OF MAINE ON
SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ONTO THE EAST COAST
ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1230 PM UPDATE: MOST OF THE FLURRIES HAVE MOVED E OUT OF NE ME AS
OF THE TM OF THIS DISC...WITH SHWRS OVR DOWNEAST PTNS OF THE
REGION ALSO MOVG E INTO NB PROV. MOST OF THE FA SHOULD REMAIN
PRECIP FREE...WITH PERHAPS THE THE CNTRL HIGHLANDS SEEING NEW SHWR
ACTIVITY BEGINNING LATE IN THE AFTN AS WHATS LEFT OF ARCTIC FRONT
AND UPPER LVL TROF BEGINS TO APCH. OTHERWISE...MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
WERE MADE TO FCST HRLY TEMPS AND HI TEMPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTN BASED ON BIAS TRENDS SEEN FROM NOON OBS FROM HE PRIOR HRLY
FCST AT NOON.

ORGNL DISC: WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MAINE WILL MOVE TO
THE EAST TODAY AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE ATLANTIC SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND
TONIGHT AND MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST. HAVE BLENDED THE NAM...GFS AND
ECMWF FOR POPS... QPF AND SKY CONDITIONS. WILL USE THE SUPER BLEND
FOR TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT. COLDER AIR MASS TO THE WEST WILL
MOVE IN ALONG WITH THE UPPER TROUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
OUR FOCUS ON SATURDAY WILL BE ON A STORM SYSTEM TRACKING SOUTH OF
THE GULF OF MAINE. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE IS CARRYING THIS STORM
SYSTEM WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION. HOWEVER, AN INVERTED TROUGH
EXTENDING NORTHWEST FROM THE LOW MAY RESULT IN SOME NORLUN
CONVERGENCE ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN DOWNEAST AREAS WHICH MAY BRING
A PERIOD OF SNOW EARLY SATURDAY. THE LOW WILL QUICKLY MOVE AWAY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS
CLEARING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AND COLD CONDITIONS. SUNDAY WILL BE
MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH OF THE AREA
BRINGS A RETURN WEST WIND, BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY IN THE
AFTERNOON. AFTER A CHILLY MORNING, THE BRIGHT SUNSHINE WILL BOOST
TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 30S ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING INTO QUEBEC WILL BRING INCREASING SOUTH WINDS
AND INCREASING CLOUDINESS SUNDAY NIGHT. LATEST GUIDANCE IS TRACKING
THIS LOW WELL TO OUR NORTH. THICKNESSES INDICATE IT WILL BE JUST
COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA AS THIS LOW TRACKS
NORTH. HOWEVER, WITH A TRACK WELL TO OUR NORTH, ONLY SOME
OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED WITH AMOUNTS PROBABLY LESS THAN
AN INCH ACROSS THE AREA. COLD AIR SURGES IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM ON
TUESDAY. THE DAY WILL BE BRIGHT AND SUNNY WITH A GUSTY NORTHWEST
WIND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY. A WEAK LOW THEN APPROACHING LATE THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY HAS A CHANCE FOR BRINGING A BIT OF SNOW TO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS TODAY TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE
TO VFR CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: MVFR CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DROP TO IFR IN
LOWER CLOUDS SUNDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN IFR MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT
AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS TO OUR NORTH. AN IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS
LIKELY TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: FOR SUSTAINED WINDS WILL USE THE NAM12. FOR WAVES:
PRIMARY WAVE SYSTEM WILL BE SOUTHERLY LONG PERIOD WAVES GENERATED
TO THE SOUTH OF THE GULF OF MAINE BUILDING TO 6-7 FEET/9-10
SECONDS. WILL KEEP CURRENT SCA TIMING.

SHORT TERM: AN SCA MAY BE NEEDED SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING
FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS FOR WINDS GUSTING UP TO 25 KT. WINDS MAY
REACH SCA IN GUSTS AGAIN ON MONDAY. SEAS MAY ALSO BUILD OVER 7 FT
IN RESPONSE TO THE SOUTH WINDS ON MONDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...VJN/BLOOMER
MARINE...VJN/BLOOMER




000
FXUS61 KCAR 271645
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1245 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TODAY AND
TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK WELL SOUTH OF THE GULF OF MAINE ON
SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ONTO THE EAST COAST
ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1230 PM UPDATE: MOST OF THE FLURRIES HAVE MOVED E OUT OF NE ME AS
OF THE TM OF THIS DISC...WITH SHWRS OVR DOWNEAST PTNS OF THE
REGION ALSO MOVG E INTO NB PROV. MOST OF THE FA SHOULD REMAIN
PRECIP FREE...WITH PERHAPS THE THE CNTRL HIGHLANDS SEEING NEW SHWR
ACTIVITY BEGINNING LATE IN THE AFTN AS WHATS LEFT OF ARCTIC FRONT
AND UPPER LVL TROF BEGINS TO APCH. OTHERWISE...MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
WERE MADE TO FCST HRLY TEMPS AND HI TEMPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTN BASED ON BIAS TRENDS SEEN FROM NOON OBS FROM HE PRIOR HRLY
FCST AT NOON.

ORGNL DISC: WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MAINE WILL MOVE TO
THE EAST TODAY AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE ATLANTIC SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND
TONIGHT AND MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST. HAVE BLENDED THE NAM...GFS AND
ECMWF FOR POPS... QPF AND SKY CONDITIONS. WILL USE THE SUPER BLEND
FOR TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT. COLDER AIR MASS TO THE WEST WILL
MOVE IN ALONG WITH THE UPPER TROUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
OUR FOCUS ON SATURDAY WILL BE ON A STORM SYSTEM TRACKING SOUTH OF
THE GULF OF MAINE. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE IS CARRYING THIS STORM
SYSTEM WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION. HOWEVER, AN INVERTED TROUGH
EXTENDING NORTHWEST FROM THE LOW MAY RESULT IN SOME NORLUN
CONVERGENCE ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN DOWNEAST AREAS WHICH MAY BRING
A PERIOD OF SNOW EARLY SATURDAY. THE LOW WILL QUICKLY MOVE AWAY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS
CLEARING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AND COLD CONDITIONS. SUNDAY WILL BE
MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH OF THE AREA
BRINGS A RETURN WEST WIND, BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY IN THE
AFTERNOON. AFTER A CHILLY MORNING, THE BRIGHT SUNSHINE WILL BOOST
TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 30S ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING INTO QUEBEC WILL BRING INCREASING SOUTH WINDS
AND INCREASING CLOUDINESS SUNDAY NIGHT. LATEST GUIDANCE IS TRACKING
THIS LOW WELL TO OUR NORTH. THICKNESSES INDICATE IT WILL BE JUST
COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA AS THIS LOW TRACKS
NORTH. HOWEVER, WITH A TRACK WELL TO OUR NORTH, ONLY SOME
OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED WITH AMOUNTS PROBABLY LESS THAN
AN INCH ACROSS THE AREA. COLD AIR SURGES IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM ON
TUESDAY. THE DAY WILL BE BRIGHT AND SUNNY WITH A GUSTY NORTHWEST
WIND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY. A WEAK LOW THEN APPROACHING LATE THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY HAS A CHANCE FOR BRINGING A BIT OF SNOW TO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS TODAY TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE
TO VFR CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: MVFR CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DROP TO IFR IN
LOWER CLOUDS SUNDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN IFR MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT
AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS TO OUR NORTH. AN IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS
LIKELY TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: FOR SUSTAINED WINDS WILL USE THE NAM12. FOR WAVES:
PRIMARY WAVE SYSTEM WILL BE SOUTHERLY LONG PERIOD WAVES GENERATED
TO THE SOUTH OF THE GULF OF MAINE BUILDING TO 6-7 FEET/9-10
SECONDS. WILL KEEP CURRENT SCA TIMING.

SHORT TERM: AN SCA MAY BE NEEDED SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING
FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS FOR WINDS GUSTING UP TO 25 KT. WINDS MAY
REACH SCA IN GUSTS AGAIN ON MONDAY. SEAS MAY ALSO BUILD OVER 7 FT
IN RESPONSE TO THE SOUTH WINDS ON MONDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...VJN/BLOOMER
MARINE...VJN/BLOOMER




000
FXUS61 KCAR 271645
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1245 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TODAY AND
TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK WELL SOUTH OF THE GULF OF MAINE ON
SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ONTO THE EAST COAST
ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1230 PM UPDATE: MOST OF THE FLURRIES HAVE MOVED E OUT OF NE ME AS
OF THE TM OF THIS DISC...WITH SHWRS OVR DOWNEAST PTNS OF THE
REGION ALSO MOVG E INTO NB PROV. MOST OF THE FA SHOULD REMAIN
PRECIP FREE...WITH PERHAPS THE THE CNTRL HIGHLANDS SEEING NEW SHWR
ACTIVITY BEGINNING LATE IN THE AFTN AS WHATS LEFT OF ARCTIC FRONT
AND UPPER LVL TROF BEGINS TO APCH. OTHERWISE...MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
WERE MADE TO FCST HRLY TEMPS AND HI TEMPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTN BASED ON BIAS TRENDS SEEN FROM NOON OBS FROM HE PRIOR HRLY
FCST AT NOON.

ORGNL DISC: WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MAINE WILL MOVE TO
THE EAST TODAY AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE ATLANTIC SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND
TONIGHT AND MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST. HAVE BLENDED THE NAM...GFS AND
ECMWF FOR POPS... QPF AND SKY CONDITIONS. WILL USE THE SUPER BLEND
FOR TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT. COLDER AIR MASS TO THE WEST WILL
MOVE IN ALONG WITH THE UPPER TROUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
OUR FOCUS ON SATURDAY WILL BE ON A STORM SYSTEM TRACKING SOUTH OF
THE GULF OF MAINE. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE IS CARRYING THIS STORM
SYSTEM WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION. HOWEVER, AN INVERTED TROUGH
EXTENDING NORTHWEST FROM THE LOW MAY RESULT IN SOME NORLUN
CONVERGENCE ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN DOWNEAST AREAS WHICH MAY BRING
A PERIOD OF SNOW EARLY SATURDAY. THE LOW WILL QUICKLY MOVE AWAY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS
CLEARING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AND COLD CONDITIONS. SUNDAY WILL BE
MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH OF THE AREA
BRINGS A RETURN WEST WIND, BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY IN THE
AFTERNOON. AFTER A CHILLY MORNING, THE BRIGHT SUNSHINE WILL BOOST
TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 30S ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING INTO QUEBEC WILL BRING INCREASING SOUTH WINDS
AND INCREASING CLOUDINESS SUNDAY NIGHT. LATEST GUIDANCE IS TRACKING
THIS LOW WELL TO OUR NORTH. THICKNESSES INDICATE IT WILL BE JUST
COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA AS THIS LOW TRACKS
NORTH. HOWEVER, WITH A TRACK WELL TO OUR NORTH, ONLY SOME
OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED WITH AMOUNTS PROBABLY LESS THAN
AN INCH ACROSS THE AREA. COLD AIR SURGES IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM ON
TUESDAY. THE DAY WILL BE BRIGHT AND SUNNY WITH A GUSTY NORTHWEST
WIND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY. A WEAK LOW THEN APPROACHING LATE THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY HAS A CHANCE FOR BRINGING A BIT OF SNOW TO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS TODAY TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE
TO VFR CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: MVFR CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DROP TO IFR IN
LOWER CLOUDS SUNDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN IFR MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT
AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS TO OUR NORTH. AN IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS
LIKELY TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: FOR SUSTAINED WINDS WILL USE THE NAM12. FOR WAVES:
PRIMARY WAVE SYSTEM WILL BE SOUTHERLY LONG PERIOD WAVES GENERATED
TO THE SOUTH OF THE GULF OF MAINE BUILDING TO 6-7 FEET/9-10
SECONDS. WILL KEEP CURRENT SCA TIMING.

SHORT TERM: AN SCA MAY BE NEEDED SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING
FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS FOR WINDS GUSTING UP TO 25 KT. WINDS MAY
REACH SCA IN GUSTS AGAIN ON MONDAY. SEAS MAY ALSO BUILD OVER 7 FT
IN RESPONSE TO THE SOUTH WINDS ON MONDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...VJN/BLOOMER
MARINE...VJN/BLOOMER



000
FXUS61 KCAR 271645
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1245 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TODAY AND
TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK WELL SOUTH OF THE GULF OF MAINE ON
SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ONTO THE EAST COAST
ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1230 PM UPDATE: MOST OF THE FLURRIES HAVE MOVED E OUT OF NE ME AS
OF THE TM OF THIS DISC...WITH SHWRS OVR DOWNEAST PTNS OF THE
REGION ALSO MOVG E INTO NB PROV. MOST OF THE FA SHOULD REMAIN
PRECIP FREE...WITH PERHAPS THE THE CNTRL HIGHLANDS SEEING NEW SHWR
ACTIVITY BEGINNING LATE IN THE AFTN AS WHATS LEFT OF ARCTIC FRONT
AND UPPER LVL TROF BEGINS TO APCH. OTHERWISE...MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
WERE MADE TO FCST HRLY TEMPS AND HI TEMPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTN BASED ON BIAS TRENDS SEEN FROM NOON OBS FROM HE PRIOR HRLY
FCST AT NOON.

ORGNL DISC: WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MAINE WILL MOVE TO
THE EAST TODAY AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE ATLANTIC SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND
TONIGHT AND MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST. HAVE BLENDED THE NAM...GFS AND
ECMWF FOR POPS... QPF AND SKY CONDITIONS. WILL USE THE SUPER BLEND
FOR TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT. COLDER AIR MASS TO THE WEST WILL
MOVE IN ALONG WITH THE UPPER TROUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
OUR FOCUS ON SATURDAY WILL BE ON A STORM SYSTEM TRACKING SOUTH OF
THE GULF OF MAINE. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE IS CARRYING THIS STORM
SYSTEM WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION. HOWEVER, AN INVERTED TROUGH
EXTENDING NORTHWEST FROM THE LOW MAY RESULT IN SOME NORLUN
CONVERGENCE ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN DOWNEAST AREAS WHICH MAY BRING
A PERIOD OF SNOW EARLY SATURDAY. THE LOW WILL QUICKLY MOVE AWAY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS
CLEARING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AND COLD CONDITIONS. SUNDAY WILL BE
MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH OF THE AREA
BRINGS A RETURN WEST WIND, BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY IN THE
AFTERNOON. AFTER A CHILLY MORNING, THE BRIGHT SUNSHINE WILL BOOST
TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 30S ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING INTO QUEBEC WILL BRING INCREASING SOUTH WINDS
AND INCREASING CLOUDINESS SUNDAY NIGHT. LATEST GUIDANCE IS TRACKING
THIS LOW WELL TO OUR NORTH. THICKNESSES INDICATE IT WILL BE JUST
COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA AS THIS LOW TRACKS
NORTH. HOWEVER, WITH A TRACK WELL TO OUR NORTH, ONLY SOME
OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED WITH AMOUNTS PROBABLY LESS THAN
AN INCH ACROSS THE AREA. COLD AIR SURGES IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM ON
TUESDAY. THE DAY WILL BE BRIGHT AND SUNNY WITH A GUSTY NORTHWEST
WIND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY. A WEAK LOW THEN APPROACHING LATE THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY HAS A CHANCE FOR BRINGING A BIT OF SNOW TO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS TODAY TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE
TO VFR CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: MVFR CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DROP TO IFR IN
LOWER CLOUDS SUNDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN IFR MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT
AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS TO OUR NORTH. AN IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS
LIKELY TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: FOR SUSTAINED WINDS WILL USE THE NAM12. FOR WAVES:
PRIMARY WAVE SYSTEM WILL BE SOUTHERLY LONG PERIOD WAVES GENERATED
TO THE SOUTH OF THE GULF OF MAINE BUILDING TO 6-7 FEET/9-10
SECONDS. WILL KEEP CURRENT SCA TIMING.

SHORT TERM: AN SCA MAY BE NEEDED SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING
FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS FOR WINDS GUSTING UP TO 25 KT. WINDS MAY
REACH SCA IN GUSTS AGAIN ON MONDAY. SEAS MAY ALSO BUILD OVER 7 FT
IN RESPONSE TO THE SOUTH WINDS ON MONDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...VJN/BLOOMER
MARINE...VJN/BLOOMER



000
FXUS61 KCAR 271403
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1003 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TODAY AND
TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK WELL SOUTH OF THE GULF OF MAINE ON
SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ONTO THE EAST COAST
ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WE ADDED ISOLD SN SHWRS/SCT FLURRIES INTO MIDDAY OVR NRN PTNS OF
THE FA BASED ON LATEST RADAR REF IMAGERY AND SFC OBS. OTHERWISE...
FCST HRLY TEMPS THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY BASED ON OBSVD
LOWS...9 AM OBS AND FCST HI TEMPS WHICH NEEDED TO BE RAISED A
COUPLE OF DEG F BASED ON POSITIVE BIASES OF THE OBSVD LOWS AND 9
AM OBS FROM PRIOR FCSTS ATTM OVR THIS PTN OF THE FA.

ORGNL DISC: WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MAINE WILL MOVE TO
THE EAST TODAY AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE ATLANTIC SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND
TONIGHT AND MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST. HAVE BLENDED THE NAM...GFS AND
ECMWF FOR POPS... QPF AND SKY CONDITIONS. WILL USE THE SUPER BLEND
FOR TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT. COLDER AIR MASS TO THE WEST WILL
MOVE IN ALONG WITH THE UPPER TROUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
OUR FOCUS ON SATURDAY WILL BE ON A STORM SYSTEM TRACKING SOUTH OF
THE GULF OF MAINE. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE IS CARRYING THIS STORM
SYSTEM WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION. HOWEVER, AN INVERTED TROUGH
EXTENDING NORTHWEST FROM THE LOW MAY RESULT IN SOME NORLUN
CONVERGENCE ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN DOWNEAST AREAS WHICH MAY BRING
A PERIOD OF SNOW EARLY SATURDAY. THE LOW WILL QUICKLY MOVE AWAY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS
CLEARING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AND COLD CONDITIONS. SUNDAY WILL BE
MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH OF THE AREA
BRINGS A RETURN WEST WIND, BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY IN THE
AFTERNOON. AFTER A CHILLY MORNING, THE BRIGHT SUNSHINE WILL BOOST
TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 30S ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING INTO QUEBEC WILL BRING INCREASING SOUTH WINDS
AND INCREASING CLOUDINESS SUNDAY NIGHT. LATEST GUIDANCE IS TRACKING
THIS LOW WELL TO OUR NORTH. THICKNESSES INDICATE IT WILL BE JUST
COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA AS THIS LOW TRACKS
NORTH. HOWEVER, WITH A TRACK WELL TO OUR NORTH, ONLY SOME
OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED WITH AMOUNTS PROBABLY LESS THAN
AN INCH ACROSS THE AREA. COLD AIR SURGES IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM ON
TUESDAY. THE DAY WILL BE BRIGHT AND SUNNY WITH A GUSTY NORTHWEST
WIND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY. A WEAK LOW THEN APPROACHING LATE THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY HAS A CHANCE FOR BRINGING A BIT OF SNOW TO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS TODAY TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE
TO VFR CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: MVFR CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DROP TO IFR IN
LOWER CLOUDS SUNDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN IFR MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT
AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS TO OUR NORTH. AN IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS
LIKELY TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: FOR SUSTAINED WINDS WILL USE THE NAM12. FOR WAVES:
PRIMARY WAVE SYSTEM WILL BE SOUTHERLY LONG PERIOD WAVES GENERATED
TO THE SOUTH OF THE GULF OF MAINE BUILDING TO 6-7 FEET/9-10
SECONDS. WILL KEEP CURRENT SCA TIMING.

SHORT TERM: AN SCA MAY BE NEEDED SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING
FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS FOR WINDS GUSTING UP TO 25 KT. WINDS MAY
REACH SCA IN GUSTS AGAIN ON MONDAY. SEAS MAY ALSO BUILD OVER 7 FT
IN RESPONSE TO THE SOUTH WINDS ON MONDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...VJN/BLOOMER
MARINE...VJN/BLOOMER



000
FXUS61 KCAR 271403
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1003 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TODAY AND
TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK WELL SOUTH OF THE GULF OF MAINE ON
SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ONTO THE EAST COAST
ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WE ADDED ISOLD SN SHWRS/SCT FLURRIES INTO MIDDAY OVR NRN PTNS OF
THE FA BASED ON LATEST RADAR REF IMAGERY AND SFC OBS. OTHERWISE...
FCST HRLY TEMPS THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY BASED ON OBSVD
LOWS...9 AM OBS AND FCST HI TEMPS WHICH NEEDED TO BE RAISED A
COUPLE OF DEG F BASED ON POSITIVE BIASES OF THE OBSVD LOWS AND 9
AM OBS FROM PRIOR FCSTS ATTM OVR THIS PTN OF THE FA.

ORGNL DISC: WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MAINE WILL MOVE TO
THE EAST TODAY AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE ATLANTIC SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND
TONIGHT AND MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST. HAVE BLENDED THE NAM...GFS AND
ECMWF FOR POPS... QPF AND SKY CONDITIONS. WILL USE THE SUPER BLEND
FOR TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT. COLDER AIR MASS TO THE WEST WILL
MOVE IN ALONG WITH THE UPPER TROUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
OUR FOCUS ON SATURDAY WILL BE ON A STORM SYSTEM TRACKING SOUTH OF
THE GULF OF MAINE. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE IS CARRYING THIS STORM
SYSTEM WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION. HOWEVER, AN INVERTED TROUGH
EXTENDING NORTHWEST FROM THE LOW MAY RESULT IN SOME NORLUN
CONVERGENCE ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN DOWNEAST AREAS WHICH MAY BRING
A PERIOD OF SNOW EARLY SATURDAY. THE LOW WILL QUICKLY MOVE AWAY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS
CLEARING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AND COLD CONDITIONS. SUNDAY WILL BE
MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH OF THE AREA
BRINGS A RETURN WEST WIND, BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY IN THE
AFTERNOON. AFTER A CHILLY MORNING, THE BRIGHT SUNSHINE WILL BOOST
TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 30S ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING INTO QUEBEC WILL BRING INCREASING SOUTH WINDS
AND INCREASING CLOUDINESS SUNDAY NIGHT. LATEST GUIDANCE IS TRACKING
THIS LOW WELL TO OUR NORTH. THICKNESSES INDICATE IT WILL BE JUST
COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA AS THIS LOW TRACKS
NORTH. HOWEVER, WITH A TRACK WELL TO OUR NORTH, ONLY SOME
OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED WITH AMOUNTS PROBABLY LESS THAN
AN INCH ACROSS THE AREA. COLD AIR SURGES IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM ON
TUESDAY. THE DAY WILL BE BRIGHT AND SUNNY WITH A GUSTY NORTHWEST
WIND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY. A WEAK LOW THEN APPROACHING LATE THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY HAS A CHANCE FOR BRINGING A BIT OF SNOW TO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS TODAY TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE
TO VFR CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: MVFR CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DROP TO IFR IN
LOWER CLOUDS SUNDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN IFR MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT
AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS TO OUR NORTH. AN IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS
LIKELY TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: FOR SUSTAINED WINDS WILL USE THE NAM12. FOR WAVES:
PRIMARY WAVE SYSTEM WILL BE SOUTHERLY LONG PERIOD WAVES GENERATED
TO THE SOUTH OF THE GULF OF MAINE BUILDING TO 6-7 FEET/9-10
SECONDS. WILL KEEP CURRENT SCA TIMING.

SHORT TERM: AN SCA MAY BE NEEDED SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING
FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS FOR WINDS GUSTING UP TO 25 KT. WINDS MAY
REACH SCA IN GUSTS AGAIN ON MONDAY. SEAS MAY ALSO BUILD OVER 7 FT
IN RESPONSE TO THE SOUTH WINDS ON MONDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...VJN/BLOOMER
MARINE...VJN/BLOOMER




000
FXUS61 KCAR 271403
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1003 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TODAY AND
TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK WELL SOUTH OF THE GULF OF MAINE ON
SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ONTO THE EAST COAST
ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WE ADDED ISOLD SN SHWRS/SCT FLURRIES INTO MIDDAY OVR NRN PTNS OF
THE FA BASED ON LATEST RADAR REF IMAGERY AND SFC OBS. OTHERWISE...
FCST HRLY TEMPS THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY BASED ON OBSVD
LOWS...9 AM OBS AND FCST HI TEMPS WHICH NEEDED TO BE RAISED A
COUPLE OF DEG F BASED ON POSITIVE BIASES OF THE OBSVD LOWS AND 9
AM OBS FROM PRIOR FCSTS ATTM OVR THIS PTN OF THE FA.

ORGNL DISC: WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MAINE WILL MOVE TO
THE EAST TODAY AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE ATLANTIC SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND
TONIGHT AND MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST. HAVE BLENDED THE NAM...GFS AND
ECMWF FOR POPS... QPF AND SKY CONDITIONS. WILL USE THE SUPER BLEND
FOR TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT. COLDER AIR MASS TO THE WEST WILL
MOVE IN ALONG WITH THE UPPER TROUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
OUR FOCUS ON SATURDAY WILL BE ON A STORM SYSTEM TRACKING SOUTH OF
THE GULF OF MAINE. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE IS CARRYING THIS STORM
SYSTEM WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION. HOWEVER, AN INVERTED TROUGH
EXTENDING NORTHWEST FROM THE LOW MAY RESULT IN SOME NORLUN
CONVERGENCE ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN DOWNEAST AREAS WHICH MAY BRING
A PERIOD OF SNOW EARLY SATURDAY. THE LOW WILL QUICKLY MOVE AWAY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS
CLEARING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AND COLD CONDITIONS. SUNDAY WILL BE
MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH OF THE AREA
BRINGS A RETURN WEST WIND, BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY IN THE
AFTERNOON. AFTER A CHILLY MORNING, THE BRIGHT SUNSHINE WILL BOOST
TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 30S ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING INTO QUEBEC WILL BRING INCREASING SOUTH WINDS
AND INCREASING CLOUDINESS SUNDAY NIGHT. LATEST GUIDANCE IS TRACKING
THIS LOW WELL TO OUR NORTH. THICKNESSES INDICATE IT WILL BE JUST
COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA AS THIS LOW TRACKS
NORTH. HOWEVER, WITH A TRACK WELL TO OUR NORTH, ONLY SOME
OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED WITH AMOUNTS PROBABLY LESS THAN
AN INCH ACROSS THE AREA. COLD AIR SURGES IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM ON
TUESDAY. THE DAY WILL BE BRIGHT AND SUNNY WITH A GUSTY NORTHWEST
WIND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY. A WEAK LOW THEN APPROACHING LATE THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY HAS A CHANCE FOR BRINGING A BIT OF SNOW TO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS TODAY TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE
TO VFR CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: MVFR CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DROP TO IFR IN
LOWER CLOUDS SUNDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN IFR MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT
AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS TO OUR NORTH. AN IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS
LIKELY TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: FOR SUSTAINED WINDS WILL USE THE NAM12. FOR WAVES:
PRIMARY WAVE SYSTEM WILL BE SOUTHERLY LONG PERIOD WAVES GENERATED
TO THE SOUTH OF THE GULF OF MAINE BUILDING TO 6-7 FEET/9-10
SECONDS. WILL KEEP CURRENT SCA TIMING.

SHORT TERM: AN SCA MAY BE NEEDED SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING
FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS FOR WINDS GUSTING UP TO 25 KT. WINDS MAY
REACH SCA IN GUSTS AGAIN ON MONDAY. SEAS MAY ALSO BUILD OVER 7 FT
IN RESPONSE TO THE SOUTH WINDS ON MONDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...VJN/BLOOMER
MARINE...VJN/BLOOMER



000
FXUS61 KCAR 271403
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1003 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TODAY AND
TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK WELL SOUTH OF THE GULF OF MAINE ON
SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ONTO THE EAST COAST
ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WE ADDED ISOLD SN SHWRS/SCT FLURRIES INTO MIDDAY OVR NRN PTNS OF
THE FA BASED ON LATEST RADAR REF IMAGERY AND SFC OBS. OTHERWISE...
FCST HRLY TEMPS THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY BASED ON OBSVD
LOWS...9 AM OBS AND FCST HI TEMPS WHICH NEEDED TO BE RAISED A
COUPLE OF DEG F BASED ON POSITIVE BIASES OF THE OBSVD LOWS AND 9
AM OBS FROM PRIOR FCSTS ATTM OVR THIS PTN OF THE FA.

ORGNL DISC: WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MAINE WILL MOVE TO
THE EAST TODAY AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE ATLANTIC SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND
TONIGHT AND MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST. HAVE BLENDED THE NAM...GFS AND
ECMWF FOR POPS... QPF AND SKY CONDITIONS. WILL USE THE SUPER BLEND
FOR TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT. COLDER AIR MASS TO THE WEST WILL
MOVE IN ALONG WITH THE UPPER TROUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
OUR FOCUS ON SATURDAY WILL BE ON A STORM SYSTEM TRACKING SOUTH OF
THE GULF OF MAINE. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE IS CARRYING THIS STORM
SYSTEM WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION. HOWEVER, AN INVERTED TROUGH
EXTENDING NORTHWEST FROM THE LOW MAY RESULT IN SOME NORLUN
CONVERGENCE ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN DOWNEAST AREAS WHICH MAY BRING
A PERIOD OF SNOW EARLY SATURDAY. THE LOW WILL QUICKLY MOVE AWAY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS
CLEARING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AND COLD CONDITIONS. SUNDAY WILL BE
MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH OF THE AREA
BRINGS A RETURN WEST WIND, BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY IN THE
AFTERNOON. AFTER A CHILLY MORNING, THE BRIGHT SUNSHINE WILL BOOST
TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 30S ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING INTO QUEBEC WILL BRING INCREASING SOUTH WINDS
AND INCREASING CLOUDINESS SUNDAY NIGHT. LATEST GUIDANCE IS TRACKING
THIS LOW WELL TO OUR NORTH. THICKNESSES INDICATE IT WILL BE JUST
COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA AS THIS LOW TRACKS
NORTH. HOWEVER, WITH A TRACK WELL TO OUR NORTH, ONLY SOME
OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED WITH AMOUNTS PROBABLY LESS THAN
AN INCH ACROSS THE AREA. COLD AIR SURGES IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM ON
TUESDAY. THE DAY WILL BE BRIGHT AND SUNNY WITH A GUSTY NORTHWEST
WIND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY. A WEAK LOW THEN APPROACHING LATE THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY HAS A CHANCE FOR BRINGING A BIT OF SNOW TO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS TODAY TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE
TO VFR CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: MVFR CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DROP TO IFR IN
LOWER CLOUDS SUNDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN IFR MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT
AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS TO OUR NORTH. AN IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS
LIKELY TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: FOR SUSTAINED WINDS WILL USE THE NAM12. FOR WAVES:
PRIMARY WAVE SYSTEM WILL BE SOUTHERLY LONG PERIOD WAVES GENERATED
TO THE SOUTH OF THE GULF OF MAINE BUILDING TO 6-7 FEET/9-10
SECONDS. WILL KEEP CURRENT SCA TIMING.

SHORT TERM: AN SCA MAY BE NEEDED SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING
FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS FOR WINDS GUSTING UP TO 25 KT. WINDS MAY
REACH SCA IN GUSTS AGAIN ON MONDAY. SEAS MAY ALSO BUILD OVER 7 FT
IN RESPONSE TO THE SOUTH WINDS ON MONDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...VJN/BLOOMER
MARINE...VJN/BLOOMER



  [top]

000
FXUS61 KGYX 271321
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
921 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL EXIT INTO THE MARITIMES THIS MORNING. A COLD
FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. THE INTERACTION
BETWEEN A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH...AND LOW PRESSURE PASSING
OFFSHORE...WILL PRODUCE CLOUDS AND A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
AREA TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SHOWERS WIND DOWN SUNDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
AREA MONDAY...KEEPING THE REGION COOL AND UNSETTLED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
915 AM UPDATE: INCREASED POPS OVER SOUTHERN AREAS OF MAINE AND
SOUTHEAST NH TO CATEGORICAL FOR THE REST OF THE MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON. ALSO WITH COLD POOL AND UPPER TROUGH SITTING OVER US
ALOFT KEPT GENERALLY A CHANCE OF RN/SNW SHWRS ELSWHERE THE REST OF
THE DAY AND INTO THIS EVENING.

600 AM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO INGEST CURRENT MESONET INTO 1ST
PERIOD GRIDS.

PREV DISC...
AT 06Z...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHED FROM CAPE COD TO THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF NOVA SCOTIA. A SERIES OF WEAK WAVES WERE SLIDING
NORTHEAST ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. NWS DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO SHOW LIGHT
PRECIPITATION RIDING NORTHEAST ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THE BACK EDGE
OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD CONTINUED TO PRESS EAST AND SHOULD
SLIDE OFFSHORE THIS MORNING. A COLD FRONT WAS DRAPED ACROSS THE
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND COULD TOUCH OFF A FEW MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS BEFORE WASHING OUT LATER TODAY. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM MID
30S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO LOWER AND MID 40S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
ANOTHER LOW WILL RIDE NORTHEAST ALONG THE OFFSHORE BOUNDARY
TONIGHT INTO THE DAY ON SATURDAY. COUPLED WITH THE APPROACHING
UPPER TROUGH...MODELS DEVELOP AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS
THE REGION TONIGHT INTO THE DAY ON SATURDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE
PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS. HOWEVER...THIS BY NO MEANS LOOKS TO BE A POTENT
TROUGH AND WITH BORDERLINE TEMPERATURES AND ONLY LIGHT QPF
EXPECTED...IT`LL BE A MARGINAL LATE SEASON EVENT AT BEST. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM TEENS IN THE MOUNTAINS TO NEAR 30
IN SOUTHEAST NEW HAMPSHIRE AND SOUTHWEST COASTAL MAINE. HIGHS
SATURDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 30.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OVERALL PATTERN FOR THE EXTENDED WILL FEATURE BROAD TROF OVER THE
ERN CONUS. THIS MEANS THAT NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. ECMWF EPS AND GEFS BOTH AGREE
THAT THE NRN STREAM WILL REMAIN QUITE ACTIVE THRU THIS TROF. THIS
MEANS THAT THRU THE FIRST WEEK OF APRIL WE COULD SEE AS MANY AS 3
OR 4 UPPER LEVEL WAVES MOVE THRU THE REGION. EXACT TIMING IS LOW
CONFIDENCE...ALONG WITH EVOLUTION AS SYSTEMS LIKE THIS CAN OFTEN
REDEVELOP QUICKLY UPON EXITING THE COAST.


WILL HAVE TO WATCH SUN CLOSELY...AS UPPER LEVEL TROF SWINGING
OVERHEAD WILL TEND TO KEEP AN INVERTED SURFACE TROF HANGING NEARBY
AND EXTENDING PCPN. THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION IS LOW
CONFIDENCE...BUT DID DRAG OUT TIMING OF POP A LITTLE LONGER INTO
SUN FOR SRN ZONES. HIGHER CONFIDENCE EXISTS ON MON HOWEVER...WHEN
A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE REGION. THIS FRONT WILL BE
MOISTURE STARVED FOR THE MOST PART...WITH MAINLY SCATTERED
SHWRS...LINGERING LONGEST IN THE NW UPSLOPE ZONES OF THE MTNS.
BEYOND THAT THE GENERAL WINDOWS FOR THE NEXT SYSTEMS APPEAR TO BE
MIDWEEK...LATE WEEK...AND LATE NEXT WEEKEND. AGAIN CONSIDERING THE
BACKGROUND COOLER THAN NORMAL STATE TO TEMPS...ANY OR ALL OF THESE
SYSTEMS COULD FEATURE AT LEAST SOME SNWFL.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...BECOMING VFR THROUGHOUT THIS MORNING. AREAS OF MVFR
PSBL TONIGHT AND SAT AM VCNTY OF THE COAST IN SNOW SHOWERS.

LONG TERM...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUN AS HIGH PRES
BUILDS IN. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MON...WITH SCATTERED
MVFR CONDITIONS IN RA OR SN SHWRS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...
WILL CONTINUE WITH SCA FOR SEAS TODAY. AN SCA FOR WIND AND SEAS
MAY BE NEEDED LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AS THE NEXT LOW TRACKS BY
OFFSHORE.

LONG TERM...WINDS AND SEAS LOOK TO INCREASE ABOVE SCA THRESHOLDS
AGAIN MON AHEAD OF NEXT COLD FRONT.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KGYX 271321
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
921 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL EXIT INTO THE MARITIMES THIS MORNING. A COLD
FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. THE INTERACTION
BETWEEN A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH...AND LOW PRESSURE PASSING
OFFSHORE...WILL PRODUCE CLOUDS AND A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
AREA TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SHOWERS WIND DOWN SUNDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
AREA MONDAY...KEEPING THE REGION COOL AND UNSETTLED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
915 AM UPDATE: INCREASED POPS OVER SOUTHERN AREAS OF MAINE AND
SOUTHEAST NH TO CATEGORICAL FOR THE REST OF THE MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON. ALSO WITH COLD POOL AND UPPER TROUGH SITTING OVER US
ALOFT KEPT GENERALLY A CHANCE OF RN/SNW SHWRS ELSWHERE THE REST OF
THE DAY AND INTO THIS EVENING.

600 AM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO INGEST CURRENT MESONET INTO 1ST
PERIOD GRIDS.

PREV DISC...
AT 06Z...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHED FROM CAPE COD TO THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF NOVA SCOTIA. A SERIES OF WEAK WAVES WERE SLIDING
NORTHEAST ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. NWS DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO SHOW LIGHT
PRECIPITATION RIDING NORTHEAST ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THE BACK EDGE
OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD CONTINUED TO PRESS EAST AND SHOULD
SLIDE OFFSHORE THIS MORNING. A COLD FRONT WAS DRAPED ACROSS THE
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND COULD TOUCH OFF A FEW MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS BEFORE WASHING OUT LATER TODAY. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM MID
30S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO LOWER AND MID 40S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
ANOTHER LOW WILL RIDE NORTHEAST ALONG THE OFFSHORE BOUNDARY
TONIGHT INTO THE DAY ON SATURDAY. COUPLED WITH THE APPROACHING
UPPER TROUGH...MODELS DEVELOP AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS
THE REGION TONIGHT INTO THE DAY ON SATURDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE
PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS. HOWEVER...THIS BY NO MEANS LOOKS TO BE A POTENT
TROUGH AND WITH BORDERLINE TEMPERATURES AND ONLY LIGHT QPF
EXPECTED...IT`LL BE A MARGINAL LATE SEASON EVENT AT BEST. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM TEENS IN THE MOUNTAINS TO NEAR 30
IN SOUTHEAST NEW HAMPSHIRE AND SOUTHWEST COASTAL MAINE. HIGHS
SATURDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 30.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OVERALL PATTERN FOR THE EXTENDED WILL FEATURE BROAD TROF OVER THE
ERN CONUS. THIS MEANS THAT NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. ECMWF EPS AND GEFS BOTH AGREE
THAT THE NRN STREAM WILL REMAIN QUITE ACTIVE THRU THIS TROF. THIS
MEANS THAT THRU THE FIRST WEEK OF APRIL WE COULD SEE AS MANY AS 3
OR 4 UPPER LEVEL WAVES MOVE THRU THE REGION. EXACT TIMING IS LOW
CONFIDENCE...ALONG WITH EVOLUTION AS SYSTEMS LIKE THIS CAN OFTEN
REDEVELOP QUICKLY UPON EXITING THE COAST.


WILL HAVE TO WATCH SUN CLOSELY...AS UPPER LEVEL TROF SWINGING
OVERHEAD WILL TEND TO KEEP AN INVERTED SURFACE TROF HANGING NEARBY
AND EXTENDING PCPN. THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION IS LOW
CONFIDENCE...BUT DID DRAG OUT TIMING OF POP A LITTLE LONGER INTO
SUN FOR SRN ZONES. HIGHER CONFIDENCE EXISTS ON MON HOWEVER...WHEN
A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE REGION. THIS FRONT WILL BE
MOISTURE STARVED FOR THE MOST PART...WITH MAINLY SCATTERED
SHWRS...LINGERING LONGEST IN THE NW UPSLOPE ZONES OF THE MTNS.
BEYOND THAT THE GENERAL WINDOWS FOR THE NEXT SYSTEMS APPEAR TO BE
MIDWEEK...LATE WEEK...AND LATE NEXT WEEKEND. AGAIN CONSIDERING THE
BACKGROUND COOLER THAN NORMAL STATE TO TEMPS...ANY OR ALL OF THESE
SYSTEMS COULD FEATURE AT LEAST SOME SNWFL.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...BECOMING VFR THROUGHOUT THIS MORNING. AREAS OF MVFR
PSBL TONIGHT AND SAT AM VCNTY OF THE COAST IN SNOW SHOWERS.

LONG TERM...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUN AS HIGH PRES
BUILDS IN. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MON...WITH SCATTERED
MVFR CONDITIONS IN RA OR SN SHWRS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...
WILL CONTINUE WITH SCA FOR SEAS TODAY. AN SCA FOR WIND AND SEAS
MAY BE NEEDED LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AS THE NEXT LOW TRACKS BY
OFFSHORE.

LONG TERM...WINDS AND SEAS LOOK TO INCREASE ABOVE SCA THRESHOLDS
AGAIN MON AHEAD OF NEXT COLD FRONT.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KGYX 271321
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
921 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL EXIT INTO THE MARITIMES THIS MORNING. A COLD
FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. THE INTERACTION
BETWEEN A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH...AND LOW PRESSURE PASSING
OFFSHORE...WILL PRODUCE CLOUDS AND A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
AREA TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SHOWERS WIND DOWN SUNDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
AREA MONDAY...KEEPING THE REGION COOL AND UNSETTLED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
915 AM UPDATE: INCREASED POPS OVER SOUTHERN AREAS OF MAINE AND
SOUTHEAST NH TO CATEGORICAL FOR THE REST OF THE MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON. ALSO WITH COLD POOL AND UPPER TROUGH SITTING OVER US
ALOFT KEPT GENERALLY A CHANCE OF RN/SNW SHWRS ELSWHERE THE REST OF
THE DAY AND INTO THIS EVENING.

600 AM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO INGEST CURRENT MESONET INTO 1ST
PERIOD GRIDS.

PREV DISC...
AT 06Z...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHED FROM CAPE COD TO THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF NOVA SCOTIA. A SERIES OF WEAK WAVES WERE SLIDING
NORTHEAST ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. NWS DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO SHOW LIGHT
PRECIPITATION RIDING NORTHEAST ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THE BACK EDGE
OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD CONTINUED TO PRESS EAST AND SHOULD
SLIDE OFFSHORE THIS MORNING. A COLD FRONT WAS DRAPED ACROSS THE
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND COULD TOUCH OFF A FEW MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS BEFORE WASHING OUT LATER TODAY. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM MID
30S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO LOWER AND MID 40S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
ANOTHER LOW WILL RIDE NORTHEAST ALONG THE OFFSHORE BOUNDARY
TONIGHT INTO THE DAY ON SATURDAY. COUPLED WITH THE APPROACHING
UPPER TROUGH...MODELS DEVELOP AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS
THE REGION TONIGHT INTO THE DAY ON SATURDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE
PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS. HOWEVER...THIS BY NO MEANS LOOKS TO BE A POTENT
TROUGH AND WITH BORDERLINE TEMPERATURES AND ONLY LIGHT QPF
EXPECTED...IT`LL BE A MARGINAL LATE SEASON EVENT AT BEST. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM TEENS IN THE MOUNTAINS TO NEAR 30
IN SOUTHEAST NEW HAMPSHIRE AND SOUTHWEST COASTAL MAINE. HIGHS
SATURDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 30.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OVERALL PATTERN FOR THE EXTENDED WILL FEATURE BROAD TROF OVER THE
ERN CONUS. THIS MEANS THAT NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. ECMWF EPS AND GEFS BOTH AGREE
THAT THE NRN STREAM WILL REMAIN QUITE ACTIVE THRU THIS TROF. THIS
MEANS THAT THRU THE FIRST WEEK OF APRIL WE COULD SEE AS MANY AS 3
OR 4 UPPER LEVEL WAVES MOVE THRU THE REGION. EXACT TIMING IS LOW
CONFIDENCE...ALONG WITH EVOLUTION AS SYSTEMS LIKE THIS CAN OFTEN
REDEVELOP QUICKLY UPON EXITING THE COAST.


WILL HAVE TO WATCH SUN CLOSELY...AS UPPER LEVEL TROF SWINGING
OVERHEAD WILL TEND TO KEEP AN INVERTED SURFACE TROF HANGING NEARBY
AND EXTENDING PCPN. THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION IS LOW
CONFIDENCE...BUT DID DRAG OUT TIMING OF POP A LITTLE LONGER INTO
SUN FOR SRN ZONES. HIGHER CONFIDENCE EXISTS ON MON HOWEVER...WHEN
A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE REGION. THIS FRONT WILL BE
MOISTURE STARVED FOR THE MOST PART...WITH MAINLY SCATTERED
SHWRS...LINGERING LONGEST IN THE NW UPSLOPE ZONES OF THE MTNS.
BEYOND THAT THE GENERAL WINDOWS FOR THE NEXT SYSTEMS APPEAR TO BE
MIDWEEK...LATE WEEK...AND LATE NEXT WEEKEND. AGAIN CONSIDERING THE
BACKGROUND COOLER THAN NORMAL STATE TO TEMPS...ANY OR ALL OF THESE
SYSTEMS COULD FEATURE AT LEAST SOME SNWFL.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...BECOMING VFR THROUGHOUT THIS MORNING. AREAS OF MVFR
PSBL TONIGHT AND SAT AM VCNTY OF THE COAST IN SNOW SHOWERS.

LONG TERM...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUN AS HIGH PRES
BUILDS IN. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MON...WITH SCATTERED
MVFR CONDITIONS IN RA OR SN SHWRS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...
WILL CONTINUE WITH SCA FOR SEAS TODAY. AN SCA FOR WIND AND SEAS
MAY BE NEEDED LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AS THE NEXT LOW TRACKS BY
OFFSHORE.

LONG TERM...WINDS AND SEAS LOOK TO INCREASE ABOVE SCA THRESHOLDS
AGAIN MON AHEAD OF NEXT COLD FRONT.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KGYX 271321
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
921 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL EXIT INTO THE MARITIMES THIS MORNING. A COLD
FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. THE INTERACTION
BETWEEN A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH...AND LOW PRESSURE PASSING
OFFSHORE...WILL PRODUCE CLOUDS AND A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
AREA TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SHOWERS WIND DOWN SUNDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
AREA MONDAY...KEEPING THE REGION COOL AND UNSETTLED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
915 AM UPDATE: INCREASED POPS OVER SOUTHERN AREAS OF MAINE AND
SOUTHEAST NH TO CATEGORICAL FOR THE REST OF THE MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON. ALSO WITH COLD POOL AND UPPER TROUGH SITTING OVER US
ALOFT KEPT GENERALLY A CHANCE OF RN/SNW SHWRS ELSWHERE THE REST OF
THE DAY AND INTO THIS EVENING.

600 AM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO INGEST CURRENT MESONET INTO 1ST
PERIOD GRIDS.

PREV DISC...
AT 06Z...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHED FROM CAPE COD TO THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF NOVA SCOTIA. A SERIES OF WEAK WAVES WERE SLIDING
NORTHEAST ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. NWS DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO SHOW LIGHT
PRECIPITATION RIDING NORTHEAST ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THE BACK EDGE
OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD CONTINUED TO PRESS EAST AND SHOULD
SLIDE OFFSHORE THIS MORNING. A COLD FRONT WAS DRAPED ACROSS THE
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND COULD TOUCH OFF A FEW MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS BEFORE WASHING OUT LATER TODAY. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM MID
30S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO LOWER AND MID 40S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
ANOTHER LOW WILL RIDE NORTHEAST ALONG THE OFFSHORE BOUNDARY
TONIGHT INTO THE DAY ON SATURDAY. COUPLED WITH THE APPROACHING
UPPER TROUGH...MODELS DEVELOP AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS
THE REGION TONIGHT INTO THE DAY ON SATURDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE
PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS. HOWEVER...THIS BY NO MEANS LOOKS TO BE A POTENT
TROUGH AND WITH BORDERLINE TEMPERATURES AND ONLY LIGHT QPF
EXPECTED...IT`LL BE A MARGINAL LATE SEASON EVENT AT BEST. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM TEENS IN THE MOUNTAINS TO NEAR 30
IN SOUTHEAST NEW HAMPSHIRE AND SOUTHWEST COASTAL MAINE. HIGHS
SATURDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 30.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OVERALL PATTERN FOR THE EXTENDED WILL FEATURE BROAD TROF OVER THE
ERN CONUS. THIS MEANS THAT NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. ECMWF EPS AND GEFS BOTH AGREE
THAT THE NRN STREAM WILL REMAIN QUITE ACTIVE THRU THIS TROF. THIS
MEANS THAT THRU THE FIRST WEEK OF APRIL WE COULD SEE AS MANY AS 3
OR 4 UPPER LEVEL WAVES MOVE THRU THE REGION. EXACT TIMING IS LOW
CONFIDENCE...ALONG WITH EVOLUTION AS SYSTEMS LIKE THIS CAN OFTEN
REDEVELOP QUICKLY UPON EXITING THE COAST.


WILL HAVE TO WATCH SUN CLOSELY...AS UPPER LEVEL TROF SWINGING
OVERHEAD WILL TEND TO KEEP AN INVERTED SURFACE TROF HANGING NEARBY
AND EXTENDING PCPN. THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION IS LOW
CONFIDENCE...BUT DID DRAG OUT TIMING OF POP A LITTLE LONGER INTO
SUN FOR SRN ZONES. HIGHER CONFIDENCE EXISTS ON MON HOWEVER...WHEN
A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE REGION. THIS FRONT WILL BE
MOISTURE STARVED FOR THE MOST PART...WITH MAINLY SCATTERED
SHWRS...LINGERING LONGEST IN THE NW UPSLOPE ZONES OF THE MTNS.
BEYOND THAT THE GENERAL WINDOWS FOR THE NEXT SYSTEMS APPEAR TO BE
MIDWEEK...LATE WEEK...AND LATE NEXT WEEKEND. AGAIN CONSIDERING THE
BACKGROUND COOLER THAN NORMAL STATE TO TEMPS...ANY OR ALL OF THESE
SYSTEMS COULD FEATURE AT LEAST SOME SNWFL.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...BECOMING VFR THROUGHOUT THIS MORNING. AREAS OF MVFR
PSBL TONIGHT AND SAT AM VCNTY OF THE COAST IN SNOW SHOWERS.

LONG TERM...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUN AS HIGH PRES
BUILDS IN. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MON...WITH SCATTERED
MVFR CONDITIONS IN RA OR SN SHWRS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...
WILL CONTINUE WITH SCA FOR SEAS TODAY. AN SCA FOR WIND AND SEAS
MAY BE NEEDED LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AS THE NEXT LOW TRACKS BY
OFFSHORE.

LONG TERM...WINDS AND SEAS LOOK TO INCREASE ABOVE SCA THRESHOLDS
AGAIN MON AHEAD OF NEXT COLD FRONT.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KGYX 271321
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
921 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL EXIT INTO THE MARITIMES THIS MORNING. A COLD
FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. THE INTERACTION
BETWEEN A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH...AND LOW PRESSURE PASSING
OFFSHORE...WILL PRODUCE CLOUDS AND A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
AREA TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SHOWERS WIND DOWN SUNDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
AREA MONDAY...KEEPING THE REGION COOL AND UNSETTLED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
915 AM UPDATE: INCREASED POPS OVER SOUTHERN AREAS OF MAINE AND
SOUTHEAST NH TO CATEGORICAL FOR THE REST OF THE MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON. ALSO WITH COLD POOL AND UPPER TROUGH SITTING OVER US
ALOFT KEPT GENERALLY A CHANCE OF RN/SNW SHWRS ELSWHERE THE REST OF
THE DAY AND INTO THIS EVENING.

600 AM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO INGEST CURRENT MESONET INTO 1ST
PERIOD GRIDS.

PREV DISC...
AT 06Z...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHED FROM CAPE COD TO THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF NOVA SCOTIA. A SERIES OF WEAK WAVES WERE SLIDING
NORTHEAST ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. NWS DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO SHOW LIGHT
PRECIPITATION RIDING NORTHEAST ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THE BACK EDGE
OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD CONTINUED TO PRESS EAST AND SHOULD
SLIDE OFFSHORE THIS MORNING. A COLD FRONT WAS DRAPED ACROSS THE
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND COULD TOUCH OFF A FEW MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS BEFORE WASHING OUT LATER TODAY. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM MID
30S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO LOWER AND MID 40S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
ANOTHER LOW WILL RIDE NORTHEAST ALONG THE OFFSHORE BOUNDARY
TONIGHT INTO THE DAY ON SATURDAY. COUPLED WITH THE APPROACHING
UPPER TROUGH...MODELS DEVELOP AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS
THE REGION TONIGHT INTO THE DAY ON SATURDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE
PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS. HOWEVER...THIS BY NO MEANS LOOKS TO BE A POTENT
TROUGH AND WITH BORDERLINE TEMPERATURES AND ONLY LIGHT QPF
EXPECTED...IT`LL BE A MARGINAL LATE SEASON EVENT AT BEST. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM TEENS IN THE MOUNTAINS TO NEAR 30
IN SOUTHEAST NEW HAMPSHIRE AND SOUTHWEST COASTAL MAINE. HIGHS
SATURDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 30.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OVERALL PATTERN FOR THE EXTENDED WILL FEATURE BROAD TROF OVER THE
ERN CONUS. THIS MEANS THAT NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. ECMWF EPS AND GEFS BOTH AGREE
THAT THE NRN STREAM WILL REMAIN QUITE ACTIVE THRU THIS TROF. THIS
MEANS THAT THRU THE FIRST WEEK OF APRIL WE COULD SEE AS MANY AS 3
OR 4 UPPER LEVEL WAVES MOVE THRU THE REGION. EXACT TIMING IS LOW
CONFIDENCE...ALONG WITH EVOLUTION AS SYSTEMS LIKE THIS CAN OFTEN
REDEVELOP QUICKLY UPON EXITING THE COAST.


WILL HAVE TO WATCH SUN CLOSELY...AS UPPER LEVEL TROF SWINGING
OVERHEAD WILL TEND TO KEEP AN INVERTED SURFACE TROF HANGING NEARBY
AND EXTENDING PCPN. THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION IS LOW
CONFIDENCE...BUT DID DRAG OUT TIMING OF POP A LITTLE LONGER INTO
SUN FOR SRN ZONES. HIGHER CONFIDENCE EXISTS ON MON HOWEVER...WHEN
A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE REGION. THIS FRONT WILL BE
MOISTURE STARVED FOR THE MOST PART...WITH MAINLY SCATTERED
SHWRS...LINGERING LONGEST IN THE NW UPSLOPE ZONES OF THE MTNS.
BEYOND THAT THE GENERAL WINDOWS FOR THE NEXT SYSTEMS APPEAR TO BE
MIDWEEK...LATE WEEK...AND LATE NEXT WEEKEND. AGAIN CONSIDERING THE
BACKGROUND COOLER THAN NORMAL STATE TO TEMPS...ANY OR ALL OF THESE
SYSTEMS COULD FEATURE AT LEAST SOME SNWFL.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...BECOMING VFR THROUGHOUT THIS MORNING. AREAS OF MVFR
PSBL TONIGHT AND SAT AM VCNTY OF THE COAST IN SNOW SHOWERS.

LONG TERM...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUN AS HIGH PRES
BUILDS IN. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MON...WITH SCATTERED
MVFR CONDITIONS IN RA OR SN SHWRS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...
WILL CONTINUE WITH SCA FOR SEAS TODAY. AN SCA FOR WIND AND SEAS
MAY BE NEEDED LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AS THE NEXT LOW TRACKS BY
OFFSHORE.

LONG TERM...WINDS AND SEAS LOOK TO INCREASE ABOVE SCA THRESHOLDS
AGAIN MON AHEAD OF NEXT COLD FRONT.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KGYX 271001
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
601 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL EXIT INTO THE MARITIMES THIS MORNING. A COLD
FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. THE INTERACTION
BETWEEN A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH...AND LOW PRESSURE PASSING
OFFSHORE...WILL PRODUCE CLOUDS AND A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
AREA TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SHOWERS WIND DOWN SUNDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
AREA MONDAY...KEEPING THE REGION COOL AND UNSETTLED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

600 AM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO INGEST CURRENT MESONET INTO 1ST
PERIOD GRIDS.

PREV DISC...
AT 06Z...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHED FROM CAPE COD TO THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF NOVA SCOTIA. A SERIES OF WEAK WAVES WERE SLIDING
NORTHEAST ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. NWS DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO SHOW LIGHT
PRECIPITATION RIDING NORTHEAST ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THE BACK EDGE
OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD CONTINUED TO PRESS EAST AND SHOULD
SLIDE OFFSHORE THIS MORNING. A COLD FRONT WAS DRAPED ACROSS THE
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND COULD TOUCH OFF A FEW MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS BEFORE WASHING OUT LATER TODAY. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM MID
30S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO LOWER AND MID 40S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
ANOTHER LOW WILL RIDE NORTHEAST ALONG THE OFFSHORE BOUNDARY
TONIGHT INTO THE DAY ON SATURDAY. COUPLED WITH THE APPROACHING
UPPER TROUGH...MODELS DEVELOP AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS
THE REGION TONIGHT INTO THE DAY ON SATURDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE
PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS. HOWEVER...THIS BY NO MEANS LOOKS TO BE A POTENT
TROUGH AND WITH BORDERLINE TEMPERATURES AND ONLY LIGHT QPF
EXPECTED...IT`LL BE A MARGINAL LATE SEASON EVENT AT BEST. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM TEENS IN THE MOUNTAINS TO NEAR 30
IN SOUTHEAST NEW HAMPSHIRE AND SOUTHWEST COASTAL MAINE. HIGHS
SATURDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 30.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OVERALL PATTERN FOR THE EXTENDED WILL FEATURE BROAD TROF OVER THE
ERN CONUS. THIS MEANS THAT NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. ECMWF EPS AND GEFS BOTH AGREE
THAT THE NRN STREAM WILL REMAIN QUITE ACTIVE THRU THIS TROF. THIS
MEANS THAT THRU THE FIRST WEEK OF APRIL WE COULD SEE AS MANY AS 3
OR 4 UPPER LEVEL WAVES MOVE THRU THE REGION. EXACT TIMING IS LOW
CONFIDENCE...ALONG WITH EVOLUTION AS SYSTEMS LIKE THIS CAN OFTEN
REDEVELOP QUICKLY UPON EXITING THE COAST.


WILL HAVE TO WATCH SUN CLOSELY...AS UPPER LEVEL TROF SWINGING
OVERHEAD WILL TEND TO KEEP AN INVERTED SURFACE TROF HANGING NEARBY
AND EXTENDING PCPN. THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION IS LOW
CONFIDENCE...BUT DID DRAG OUT TIMING OF POP A LITTLE LONGER INTO
SUN FOR SRN ZONES. HIGHER CONFIDENCE EXISTS ON MON HOWEVER...WHEN
A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE REGION. THIS FRONT WILL BE
MOISTURE STARVED FOR THE MOST PART...WITH MAINLY SCATTERED
SHWRS...LINGERING LONGEST IN THE NW UPSLOPE ZONES OF THE MTNS.
BEYOND THAT THE GENERAL WINDOWS FOR THE NEXT SYSTEMS APPEAR TO BE
MIDWEEK...LATE WEEK...AND LATE NEXT WEEKEND. AGAIN CONSIDERING THE
BACKGROUND COOLER THAN NORMAL STATE TO TEMPS...ANY OR ALL OF THESE
SYSTEMS COULD FEATURE AT LEAST SOME SNWFL.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...BECOMING VFR THROUGHOUT THIS MORNING. AREAS OF MVFR
PSBL TONIGHT AND SAT AM VCNTY OF THE COAST IN SNOW SHOWERS.

LONG TERM...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUN AS HIGH PRES
BUILDS IN. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MON...WITH SCATTERED
MVFR CONDITIONS IN RA OR SN SHWRS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...
WILL CONTINUE WITH SCA FOR SEAS TODAY. AN SCA FOR WIND AND SEAS
MAY BE NEEDED LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AS THE NEXT LOW TRACKS BY
OFFSHORE.

LONG TERM...WINDS AND SEAS LOOK TO INCREASE ABOVE SCA THRESHOLDS
AGAIN MON AHEAD OF NEXT COLD FRONT.

&&


.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
ES



000
FXUS61 KGYX 271001
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
601 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL EXIT INTO THE MARITIMES THIS MORNING. A COLD
FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. THE INTERACTION
BETWEEN A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH...AND LOW PRESSURE PASSING
OFFSHORE...WILL PRODUCE CLOUDS AND A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
AREA TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SHOWERS WIND DOWN SUNDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
AREA MONDAY...KEEPING THE REGION COOL AND UNSETTLED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

600 AM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO INGEST CURRENT MESONET INTO 1ST
PERIOD GRIDS.

PREV DISC...
AT 06Z...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHED FROM CAPE COD TO THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF NOVA SCOTIA. A SERIES OF WEAK WAVES WERE SLIDING
NORTHEAST ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. NWS DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO SHOW LIGHT
PRECIPITATION RIDING NORTHEAST ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THE BACK EDGE
OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD CONTINUED TO PRESS EAST AND SHOULD
SLIDE OFFSHORE THIS MORNING. A COLD FRONT WAS DRAPED ACROSS THE
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND COULD TOUCH OFF A FEW MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS BEFORE WASHING OUT LATER TODAY. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM MID
30S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO LOWER AND MID 40S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
ANOTHER LOW WILL RIDE NORTHEAST ALONG THE OFFSHORE BOUNDARY
TONIGHT INTO THE DAY ON SATURDAY. COUPLED WITH THE APPROACHING
UPPER TROUGH...MODELS DEVELOP AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS
THE REGION TONIGHT INTO THE DAY ON SATURDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE
PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS. HOWEVER...THIS BY NO MEANS LOOKS TO BE A POTENT
TROUGH AND WITH BORDERLINE TEMPERATURES AND ONLY LIGHT QPF
EXPECTED...IT`LL BE A MARGINAL LATE SEASON EVENT AT BEST. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM TEENS IN THE MOUNTAINS TO NEAR 30
IN SOUTHEAST NEW HAMPSHIRE AND SOUTHWEST COASTAL MAINE. HIGHS
SATURDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 30.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OVERALL PATTERN FOR THE EXTENDED WILL FEATURE BROAD TROF OVER THE
ERN CONUS. THIS MEANS THAT NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. ECMWF EPS AND GEFS BOTH AGREE
THAT THE NRN STREAM WILL REMAIN QUITE ACTIVE THRU THIS TROF. THIS
MEANS THAT THRU THE FIRST WEEK OF APRIL WE COULD SEE AS MANY AS 3
OR 4 UPPER LEVEL WAVES MOVE THRU THE REGION. EXACT TIMING IS LOW
CONFIDENCE...ALONG WITH EVOLUTION AS SYSTEMS LIKE THIS CAN OFTEN
REDEVELOP QUICKLY UPON EXITING THE COAST.


WILL HAVE TO WATCH SUN CLOSELY...AS UPPER LEVEL TROF SWINGING
OVERHEAD WILL TEND TO KEEP AN INVERTED SURFACE TROF HANGING NEARBY
AND EXTENDING PCPN. THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION IS LOW
CONFIDENCE...BUT DID DRAG OUT TIMING OF POP A LITTLE LONGER INTO
SUN FOR SRN ZONES. HIGHER CONFIDENCE EXISTS ON MON HOWEVER...WHEN
A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE REGION. THIS FRONT WILL BE
MOISTURE STARVED FOR THE MOST PART...WITH MAINLY SCATTERED
SHWRS...LINGERING LONGEST IN THE NW UPSLOPE ZONES OF THE MTNS.
BEYOND THAT THE GENERAL WINDOWS FOR THE NEXT SYSTEMS APPEAR TO BE
MIDWEEK...LATE WEEK...AND LATE NEXT WEEKEND. AGAIN CONSIDERING THE
BACKGROUND COOLER THAN NORMAL STATE TO TEMPS...ANY OR ALL OF THESE
SYSTEMS COULD FEATURE AT LEAST SOME SNWFL.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...BECOMING VFR THROUGHOUT THIS MORNING. AREAS OF MVFR
PSBL TONIGHT AND SAT AM VCNTY OF THE COAST IN SNOW SHOWERS.

LONG TERM...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUN AS HIGH PRES
BUILDS IN. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MON...WITH SCATTERED
MVFR CONDITIONS IN RA OR SN SHWRS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...
WILL CONTINUE WITH SCA FOR SEAS TODAY. AN SCA FOR WIND AND SEAS
MAY BE NEEDED LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AS THE NEXT LOW TRACKS BY
OFFSHORE.

LONG TERM...WINDS AND SEAS LOOK TO INCREASE ABOVE SCA THRESHOLDS
AGAIN MON AHEAD OF NEXT COLD FRONT.

&&


.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
ES




000
FXUS61 KCAR 271001
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
601 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TODAY AND
TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK WELL SOUTH OF THE GULF OF MAINE ON
SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ONTO THE EAST COAST
ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE 0600 EDT: HAVE ADJUSTED WINDS... TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT
TO BETTER FIT LATEST OBSERVATIONS. NO OTHER CHANGES.

WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MAINE WILL MOVE TO THE EAST
TODAY AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE ATLANTIC SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND
TONIGHT AND MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST. HAVE BLENDED THE NAM...GFS AND
ECMWF FOR POPS... QPF AND SKY CONDITIONS. WILL USE THE SUPER BLEND
FOR TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT. COLDER AIR MASS TO THE WEST WILL
MOVE IN ALONG WITH THE UPPER TROUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
OUR FOCUS ON SATURDAY WILL BE ON A STORM SYSTEM TRACKING SOUTH OF
THE GULF OF MAINE. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE IS CARRYING THIS STORM
SYSTEM WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION. HOWEVER, AN INVERTED TROUGH
EXTENDING NORTHWEST FROM THE LOW MAY RESULT IN SOME NORLUN
CONVERGENCE ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN DOWNEAST AREAS WHICH MAY BRING
A PERIOD OF SNOW EARLY SATURDAY. THE LOW WILL QUICKLY MOVE AWAY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS
CLEARING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AND COLD CONDITIONS. SUNDAY WILL BE
MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH OF THE AREA
BRINGS A RETURN WEST WIND, BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY IN THE
AFTERNOON. AFTER A CHILLY MORNING, THE BRIGHT SUNSHINE WILL BOOST
TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 30S ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING INTO QUEBEC WILL BRING INCREASING SOUTH WINDS
AND INCREASING CLOUDINESS SUNDAY NIGHT. LATEST GUIDANCE IS TRACKING
THIS LOW WELL TO OUR NORTH. THICKNESSES INDICATE IT WILL BE JUST
COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA AS THIS LOW TRACKS
NORTH. HOWEVER, WITH A TRACK WELL TO OUR NORTH, ONLY SOME
OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED WITH AMOUNTS PROBABLY LESS THAN
AN INCH ACROSS THE AREA. COLD AIR SURGES IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM ON
TUESDAY. THE DAY WILL BE BRIGHT AND SUNNY WITH A GUSTY NORTHWEST
WIND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY. A WEAK LOW THEN APPROACHING LATE THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY HAS A CHANCE FOR BRINGING A BIT OF SNOW TO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS TODAY TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE
TO VFR CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: MVFR CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DROP TO IFR IN
LOWER CLOUDS SUNDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN IFR MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT
AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS TO OUR NORTH. AN IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS
LIKELY TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: FOR SUSTAINED WINDS WILL USE THE NAM12. FOR WAVES:
PRIMARY WAVE SYSTEM WILL BE SOUTHERLY LONG PERIOD WAVES GENERATED
TO THE SOUTH OF THE GULF OF MAINE BUILDINT TO 6-7 FEET/9-10
SECONDS. WILL KEEP CURRENT SCA TIMING.

SHORT TERM: AN SCA MAY BE NEEDED SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING
FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS FOR WINDS GUSTING UP TO 25 KT. WINDS MAY
REACH SCA IN GUSTS AGAIN ON MONDAY. SEAS MAY ALSO BUILD OVER 7 FT
IN RESPONSE TO THE SOUTH WINDS ON MONDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MIGNONE
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...MIGNONE/BLOOMER
MARINE...MIGNONE/BLOOMER



000
FXUS61 KCAR 271001
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
601 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TODAY AND
TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK WELL SOUTH OF THE GULF OF MAINE ON
SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ONTO THE EAST COAST
ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE 0600 EDT: HAVE ADJUSTED WINDS... TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT
TO BETTER FIT LATEST OBSERVATIONS. NO OTHER CHANGES.

WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MAINE WILL MOVE TO THE EAST
TODAY AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE ATLANTIC SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND
TONIGHT AND MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST. HAVE BLENDED THE NAM...GFS AND
ECMWF FOR POPS... QPF AND SKY CONDITIONS. WILL USE THE SUPER BLEND
FOR TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT. COLDER AIR MASS TO THE WEST WILL
MOVE IN ALONG WITH THE UPPER TROUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
OUR FOCUS ON SATURDAY WILL BE ON A STORM SYSTEM TRACKING SOUTH OF
THE GULF OF MAINE. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE IS CARRYING THIS STORM
SYSTEM WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION. HOWEVER, AN INVERTED TROUGH
EXTENDING NORTHWEST FROM THE LOW MAY RESULT IN SOME NORLUN
CONVERGENCE ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN DOWNEAST AREAS WHICH MAY BRING
A PERIOD OF SNOW EARLY SATURDAY. THE LOW WILL QUICKLY MOVE AWAY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS
CLEARING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AND COLD CONDITIONS. SUNDAY WILL BE
MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH OF THE AREA
BRINGS A RETURN WEST WIND, BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY IN THE
AFTERNOON. AFTER A CHILLY MORNING, THE BRIGHT SUNSHINE WILL BOOST
TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 30S ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING INTO QUEBEC WILL BRING INCREASING SOUTH WINDS
AND INCREASING CLOUDINESS SUNDAY NIGHT. LATEST GUIDANCE IS TRACKING
THIS LOW WELL TO OUR NORTH. THICKNESSES INDICATE IT WILL BE JUST
COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA AS THIS LOW TRACKS
NORTH. HOWEVER, WITH A TRACK WELL TO OUR NORTH, ONLY SOME
OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED WITH AMOUNTS PROBABLY LESS THAN
AN INCH ACROSS THE AREA. COLD AIR SURGES IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM ON
TUESDAY. THE DAY WILL BE BRIGHT AND SUNNY WITH A GUSTY NORTHWEST
WIND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY. A WEAK LOW THEN APPROACHING LATE THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY HAS A CHANCE FOR BRINGING A BIT OF SNOW TO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS TODAY TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE
TO VFR CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: MVFR CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DROP TO IFR IN
LOWER CLOUDS SUNDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN IFR MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT
AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS TO OUR NORTH. AN IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS
LIKELY TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: FOR SUSTAINED WINDS WILL USE THE NAM12. FOR WAVES:
PRIMARY WAVE SYSTEM WILL BE SOUTHERLY LONG PERIOD WAVES GENERATED
TO THE SOUTH OF THE GULF OF MAINE BUILDINT TO 6-7 FEET/9-10
SECONDS. WILL KEEP CURRENT SCA TIMING.

SHORT TERM: AN SCA MAY BE NEEDED SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING
FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS FOR WINDS GUSTING UP TO 25 KT. WINDS MAY
REACH SCA IN GUSTS AGAIN ON MONDAY. SEAS MAY ALSO BUILD OVER 7 FT
IN RESPONSE TO THE SOUTH WINDS ON MONDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MIGNONE
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...MIGNONE/BLOOMER
MARINE...MIGNONE/BLOOMER




000
FXUS61 KGYX 270710
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
310 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL EXIT INTO THE MARITIMES THIS MORNING. A COLD
FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. THE INTERACTION
BETWEEN A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH...AND LOW PRESSURE PASSING
OFFSHORE...WILL PRODUCE CLOUDS AND A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
AREA TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SHOWERS WIND DOWN SUNDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
AREA MONDAY...KEEPING THE REGION COOL AND UNSETTLED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AT 06Z...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHED FROM CAPE COD TO THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF NOVA SCOTIA. A SERIES OF WEAK WAVES WERE SLIDING
NORTHEAST ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. NWS DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO SHOW LIGHT
PRECIPITATION RIDING NORTHEAST ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THE BACK EDGE
OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD CONTINUED TO PRESS EAST AND SHOULD
SLIDE OFFSHORE THIS MORNING. A COLD FRONT WAS DRAPED ACROSS THE
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND COULD TOUCH OFF A FEW MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS BEFORE WASHING OUT LATER TODAY. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM MID
30S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO LOWER AND MID 40S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
ANOTHER LOW WILL RIDE NORTHEAST ALONG THE OFFSHORE BOUNDARY
TONIGHT INTO THE DAY ON SATURDAY. COUPLED WITH THE APPROACHING
UPPER TROUGH...MODELS DEVELOP AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS
THE REGION TONIGHT INTO THE DAY ON SATURDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE
PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS. HOWEVER...THIS BY NO MEANS LOOKS TO BE A POTENT
TROUGH AND WITH BORDERLINE TEMPERATURES AND ONLY LIGHT QPF
EXPECTED...IT`LL BE A MARGINAL LATE SEASON EVENT AT BEST. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM TEENS IN THE MOUNTAINS TO NEAR 30
IN SOUTHEAST NEW HAMPSHIRE AND SOUTHWEST COASTAL MAINE. HIGHS
SATURDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 30.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OVERALL PATTERN FOR THE EXTENDED WILL FEATURE BROAD TROF OVER THE
ERN CONUS. THIS MEANS THAT NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. ECMWF EPS AND GEFS BOTH AGREE
THAT THE NRN STREAM WILL REMAIN QUITE ACTIVE THRU THIS TROF. THIS
MEANS THAT THRU THE FIRST WEEK OF APRIL WE COULD SEE AS MANY AS 3
OR 4 UPPER LEVEL WAVES MOVE THRU THE REGION. EXACT TIMING IS LOW
CONFIDENCE...ALONG WITH EVOLUTION AS SYSTEMS LIKE THIS CAN OFTEN
REDEVELOP QUICKLY UPON EXITING THE COAST.


WILL HAVE TO WATCH SUN CLOSELY...AS UPPER LEVEL TROF SWINGING
OVERHEAD WILL TEND TO KEEP AN INVERTED SURFACE TROF HANGING NEARBY
AND EXTENDING PCPN. THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION IS LOW
CONFIDENCE...BUT DID DRAG OUT TIMING OF POP A LITTLE LONGER INTO
SUN FOR SRN ZONES. HIGHER CONFIDENCE EXISTS ON MON HOWEVER...WHEN
A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE REGION. THIS FRONT WILL BE
MOISTURE STARVED FOR THE MOST PART...WITH MAINLY SCATTERED
SHWRS...LINGERING LONGEST IN THE NW UPSLOPE ZONES OF THE MTNS.
BEYOND THAT THE GENERAL WINDOWS FOR THE NEXT SYSTEMS APPEAR TO BE
MIDWEEK...LATE WEEK...AND LATE NEXT WEEKEND. AGAIN CONSIDERING THE
BACKGROUND COOLER THAN NORMAL STATE TO TEMPS...ANY OR ALL OF THESE
SYSTEMS COULD FEATURE AT LEAST SOME SNWFL.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...BECOMING VFR THROUGHOUT THIS MORNING. AREAS OF MVFR
PSBL TONIGHT AND SAT AM VCNTY OF THE COAST IN SNOW SHOWERS.

LONG TERM...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUN AS HIGH PRES
BUILDS IN. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MON...WITH SCATTERED
MVFR CONDITIONS IN RA OR SN SHWRS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...
WILL CONTINUE WITH SCA FOR SEAS TODAY. AN SCA FOR WIND AND SEAS
MAY BE NEEDED LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AS THE NEXT LOW TRACKS BY
OFFSHORE.

LONG TERM...WINDS AND SEAS LOOK TO INCREASE ABOVE SCA THRESHOLDS
AGAIN MON AHEAD OF NEXT COLD FRONT.

&&


.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$

SCHWIBS/LEGRO




000
FXUS61 KGYX 270710
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
310 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL EXIT INTO THE MARITIMES THIS MORNING. A COLD
FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. THE INTERACTION
BETWEEN A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH...AND LOW PRESSURE PASSING
OFFSHORE...WILL PRODUCE CLOUDS AND A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
AREA TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SHOWERS WIND DOWN SUNDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
AREA MONDAY...KEEPING THE REGION COOL AND UNSETTLED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AT 06Z...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHED FROM CAPE COD TO THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF NOVA SCOTIA. A SERIES OF WEAK WAVES WERE SLIDING
NORTHEAST ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. NWS DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO SHOW LIGHT
PRECIPITATION RIDING NORTHEAST ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THE BACK EDGE
OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD CONTINUED TO PRESS EAST AND SHOULD
SLIDE OFFSHORE THIS MORNING. A COLD FRONT WAS DRAPED ACROSS THE
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND COULD TOUCH OFF A FEW MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS BEFORE WASHING OUT LATER TODAY. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM MID
30S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO LOWER AND MID 40S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
ANOTHER LOW WILL RIDE NORTHEAST ALONG THE OFFSHORE BOUNDARY
TONIGHT INTO THE DAY ON SATURDAY. COUPLED WITH THE APPROACHING
UPPER TROUGH...MODELS DEVELOP AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS
THE REGION TONIGHT INTO THE DAY ON SATURDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE
PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS. HOWEVER...THIS BY NO MEANS LOOKS TO BE A POTENT
TROUGH AND WITH BORDERLINE TEMPERATURES AND ONLY LIGHT QPF
EXPECTED...IT`LL BE A MARGINAL LATE SEASON EVENT AT BEST. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM TEENS IN THE MOUNTAINS TO NEAR 30
IN SOUTHEAST NEW HAMPSHIRE AND SOUTHWEST COASTAL MAINE. HIGHS
SATURDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 30.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OVERALL PATTERN FOR THE EXTENDED WILL FEATURE BROAD TROF OVER THE
ERN CONUS. THIS MEANS THAT NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. ECMWF EPS AND GEFS BOTH AGREE
THAT THE NRN STREAM WILL REMAIN QUITE ACTIVE THRU THIS TROF. THIS
MEANS THAT THRU THE FIRST WEEK OF APRIL WE COULD SEE AS MANY AS 3
OR 4 UPPER LEVEL WAVES MOVE THRU THE REGION. EXACT TIMING IS LOW
CONFIDENCE...ALONG WITH EVOLUTION AS SYSTEMS LIKE THIS CAN OFTEN
REDEVELOP QUICKLY UPON EXITING THE COAST.


WILL HAVE TO WATCH SUN CLOSELY...AS UPPER LEVEL TROF SWINGING
OVERHEAD WILL TEND TO KEEP AN INVERTED SURFACE TROF HANGING NEARBY
AND EXTENDING PCPN. THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION IS LOW
CONFIDENCE...BUT DID DRAG OUT TIMING OF POP A LITTLE LONGER INTO
SUN FOR SRN ZONES. HIGHER CONFIDENCE EXISTS ON MON HOWEVER...WHEN
A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE REGION. THIS FRONT WILL BE
MOISTURE STARVED FOR THE MOST PART...WITH MAINLY SCATTERED
SHWRS...LINGERING LONGEST IN THE NW UPSLOPE ZONES OF THE MTNS.
BEYOND THAT THE GENERAL WINDOWS FOR THE NEXT SYSTEMS APPEAR TO BE
MIDWEEK...LATE WEEK...AND LATE NEXT WEEKEND. AGAIN CONSIDERING THE
BACKGROUND COOLER THAN NORMAL STATE TO TEMPS...ANY OR ALL OF THESE
SYSTEMS COULD FEATURE AT LEAST SOME SNWFL.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...BECOMING VFR THROUGHOUT THIS MORNING. AREAS OF MVFR
PSBL TONIGHT AND SAT AM VCNTY OF THE COAST IN SNOW SHOWERS.

LONG TERM...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUN AS HIGH PRES
BUILDS IN. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MON...WITH SCATTERED
MVFR CONDITIONS IN RA OR SN SHWRS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...
WILL CONTINUE WITH SCA FOR SEAS TODAY. AN SCA FOR WIND AND SEAS
MAY BE NEEDED LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AS THE NEXT LOW TRACKS BY
OFFSHORE.

LONG TERM...WINDS AND SEAS LOOK TO INCREASE ABOVE SCA THRESHOLDS
AGAIN MON AHEAD OF NEXT COLD FRONT.

&&


.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$

SCHWIBS/LEGRO



000
FXUS61 KGYX 270710
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
310 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL EXIT INTO THE MARITIMES THIS MORNING. A COLD
FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. THE INTERACTION
BETWEEN A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH...AND LOW PRESSURE PASSING
OFFSHORE...WILL PRODUCE CLOUDS AND A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
AREA TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SHOWERS WIND DOWN SUNDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
AREA MONDAY...KEEPING THE REGION COOL AND UNSETTLED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AT 06Z...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHED FROM CAPE COD TO THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF NOVA SCOTIA. A SERIES OF WEAK WAVES WERE SLIDING
NORTHEAST ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. NWS DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO SHOW LIGHT
PRECIPITATION RIDING NORTHEAST ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THE BACK EDGE
OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD CONTINUED TO PRESS EAST AND SHOULD
SLIDE OFFSHORE THIS MORNING. A COLD FRONT WAS DRAPED ACROSS THE
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND COULD TOUCH OFF A FEW MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS BEFORE WASHING OUT LATER TODAY. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM MID
30S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO LOWER AND MID 40S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
ANOTHER LOW WILL RIDE NORTHEAST ALONG THE OFFSHORE BOUNDARY
TONIGHT INTO THE DAY ON SATURDAY. COUPLED WITH THE APPROACHING
UPPER TROUGH...MODELS DEVELOP AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS
THE REGION TONIGHT INTO THE DAY ON SATURDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE
PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS. HOWEVER...THIS BY NO MEANS LOOKS TO BE A POTENT
TROUGH AND WITH BORDERLINE TEMPERATURES AND ONLY LIGHT QPF
EXPECTED...IT`LL BE A MARGINAL LATE SEASON EVENT AT BEST. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM TEENS IN THE MOUNTAINS TO NEAR 30
IN SOUTHEAST NEW HAMPSHIRE AND SOUTHWEST COASTAL MAINE. HIGHS
SATURDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 30.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OVERALL PATTERN FOR THE EXTENDED WILL FEATURE BROAD TROF OVER THE
ERN CONUS. THIS MEANS THAT NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. ECMWF EPS AND GEFS BOTH AGREE
THAT THE NRN STREAM WILL REMAIN QUITE ACTIVE THRU THIS TROF. THIS
MEANS THAT THRU THE FIRST WEEK OF APRIL WE COULD SEE AS MANY AS 3
OR 4 UPPER LEVEL WAVES MOVE THRU THE REGION. EXACT TIMING IS LOW
CONFIDENCE...ALONG WITH EVOLUTION AS SYSTEMS LIKE THIS CAN OFTEN
REDEVELOP QUICKLY UPON EXITING THE COAST.


WILL HAVE TO WATCH SUN CLOSELY...AS UPPER LEVEL TROF SWINGING
OVERHEAD WILL TEND TO KEEP AN INVERTED SURFACE TROF HANGING NEARBY
AND EXTENDING PCPN. THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION IS LOW
CONFIDENCE...BUT DID DRAG OUT TIMING OF POP A LITTLE LONGER INTO
SUN FOR SRN ZONES. HIGHER CONFIDENCE EXISTS ON MON HOWEVER...WHEN
A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE REGION. THIS FRONT WILL BE
MOISTURE STARVED FOR THE MOST PART...WITH MAINLY SCATTERED
SHWRS...LINGERING LONGEST IN THE NW UPSLOPE ZONES OF THE MTNS.
BEYOND THAT THE GENERAL WINDOWS FOR THE NEXT SYSTEMS APPEAR TO BE
MIDWEEK...LATE WEEK...AND LATE NEXT WEEKEND. AGAIN CONSIDERING THE
BACKGROUND COOLER THAN NORMAL STATE TO TEMPS...ANY OR ALL OF THESE
SYSTEMS COULD FEATURE AT LEAST SOME SNWFL.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...BECOMING VFR THROUGHOUT THIS MORNING. AREAS OF MVFR
PSBL TONIGHT AND SAT AM VCNTY OF THE COAST IN SNOW SHOWERS.

LONG TERM...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUN AS HIGH PRES
BUILDS IN. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MON...WITH SCATTERED
MVFR CONDITIONS IN RA OR SN SHWRS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...
WILL CONTINUE WITH SCA FOR SEAS TODAY. AN SCA FOR WIND AND SEAS
MAY BE NEEDED LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AS THE NEXT LOW TRACKS BY
OFFSHORE.

LONG TERM...WINDS AND SEAS LOOK TO INCREASE ABOVE SCA THRESHOLDS
AGAIN MON AHEAD OF NEXT COLD FRONT.

&&


.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$

SCHWIBS/LEGRO




000
FXUS61 KGYX 270710
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
310 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL EXIT INTO THE MARITIMES THIS MORNING. A COLD
FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. THE INTERACTION
BETWEEN A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH...AND LOW PRESSURE PASSING
OFFSHORE...WILL PRODUCE CLOUDS AND A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
AREA TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SHOWERS WIND DOWN SUNDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
AREA MONDAY...KEEPING THE REGION COOL AND UNSETTLED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AT 06Z...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHED FROM CAPE COD TO THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF NOVA SCOTIA. A SERIES OF WEAK WAVES WERE SLIDING
NORTHEAST ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. NWS DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO SHOW LIGHT
PRECIPITATION RIDING NORTHEAST ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THE BACK EDGE
OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD CONTINUED TO PRESS EAST AND SHOULD
SLIDE OFFSHORE THIS MORNING. A COLD FRONT WAS DRAPED ACROSS THE
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND COULD TOUCH OFF A FEW MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS BEFORE WASHING OUT LATER TODAY. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM MID
30S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO LOWER AND MID 40S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
ANOTHER LOW WILL RIDE NORTHEAST ALONG THE OFFSHORE BOUNDARY
TONIGHT INTO THE DAY ON SATURDAY. COUPLED WITH THE APPROACHING
UPPER TROUGH...MODELS DEVELOP AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS
THE REGION TONIGHT INTO THE DAY ON SATURDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE
PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS. HOWEVER...THIS BY NO MEANS LOOKS TO BE A POTENT
TROUGH AND WITH BORDERLINE TEMPERATURES AND ONLY LIGHT QPF
EXPECTED...IT`LL BE A MARGINAL LATE SEASON EVENT AT BEST. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM TEENS IN THE MOUNTAINS TO NEAR 30
IN SOUTHEAST NEW HAMPSHIRE AND SOUTHWEST COASTAL MAINE. HIGHS
SATURDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 30.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OVERALL PATTERN FOR THE EXTENDED WILL FEATURE BROAD TROF OVER THE
ERN CONUS. THIS MEANS THAT NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. ECMWF EPS AND GEFS BOTH AGREE
THAT THE NRN STREAM WILL REMAIN QUITE ACTIVE THRU THIS TROF. THIS
MEANS THAT THRU THE FIRST WEEK OF APRIL WE COULD SEE AS MANY AS 3
OR 4 UPPER LEVEL WAVES MOVE THRU THE REGION. EXACT TIMING IS LOW
CONFIDENCE...ALONG WITH EVOLUTION AS SYSTEMS LIKE THIS CAN OFTEN
REDEVELOP QUICKLY UPON EXITING THE COAST.


WILL HAVE TO WATCH SUN CLOSELY...AS UPPER LEVEL TROF SWINGING
OVERHEAD WILL TEND TO KEEP AN INVERTED SURFACE TROF HANGING NEARBY
AND EXTENDING PCPN. THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION IS LOW
CONFIDENCE...BUT DID DRAG OUT TIMING OF POP A LITTLE LONGER INTO
SUN FOR SRN ZONES. HIGHER CONFIDENCE EXISTS ON MON HOWEVER...WHEN
A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE REGION. THIS FRONT WILL BE
MOISTURE STARVED FOR THE MOST PART...WITH MAINLY SCATTERED
SHWRS...LINGERING LONGEST IN THE NW UPSLOPE ZONES OF THE MTNS.
BEYOND THAT THE GENERAL WINDOWS FOR THE NEXT SYSTEMS APPEAR TO BE
MIDWEEK...LATE WEEK...AND LATE NEXT WEEKEND. AGAIN CONSIDERING THE
BACKGROUND COOLER THAN NORMAL STATE TO TEMPS...ANY OR ALL OF THESE
SYSTEMS COULD FEATURE AT LEAST SOME SNWFL.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...BECOMING VFR THROUGHOUT THIS MORNING. AREAS OF MVFR
PSBL TONIGHT AND SAT AM VCNTY OF THE COAST IN SNOW SHOWERS.

LONG TERM...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUN AS HIGH PRES
BUILDS IN. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MON...WITH SCATTERED
MVFR CONDITIONS IN RA OR SN SHWRS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...
WILL CONTINUE WITH SCA FOR SEAS TODAY. AN SCA FOR WIND AND SEAS
MAY BE NEEDED LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AS THE NEXT LOW TRACKS BY
OFFSHORE.

LONG TERM...WINDS AND SEAS LOOK TO INCREASE ABOVE SCA THRESHOLDS
AGAIN MON AHEAD OF NEXT COLD FRONT.

&&


.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$

SCHWIBS/LEGRO



000
FXUS61 KCAR 270658
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
258 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TODAY AND
TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK WELL SOUTH OF THE GULF OF MAINE ON
SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ONTO THE EAST COAST
ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MAINE WILL MOVE TO THE EAST
TODAY AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE ATLANTIC SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND
TONIGHT AND MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST. HAVE BLENDED THE NAM...GFS AND
ECMWF FOR POPS... QPF AND SKY CONDITIONS. WILL USE THE SUPER BLEND
FOR TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT. COLDER AIR MASS TO THE WEST WILL
MOVE IN ALONG WITH THE UPPER TROUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
OUR FOCUS ON SATURDAY WILL BE ON A STORM SYSTEM TRACKING SOUTH OF
THE GULF OF MAINE. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE IS CARRYING THIS STORM
SYSTEM WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION. HOWEVER, AN INVERTED TROUGH
EXTENDING NORTHWEST FROM THE LOW MAY RESULT IN SOME NORLUN
CONVERGENCE ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN DOWNEAST AREAS WHICH MAY BRING
A PERIOD OF SNOW EARLY SATURDAY. THE LOW WILL QUICKLY MOVE AWAY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS
CLEARING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AND COLD CONDITIONS. SUNDAY WILL BE
MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH OF THE AREA
BRINGS A RETURN WEST WIND, BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY IN THE
AFTERNOON. AFTER A CHILLY MORNING, THE BRIGHT SUNSHINE WILL BOOST
TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 30S ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING INTO QUEBEC WILL BRING INCREASING SOUTH WINDS
AND INCREASING CLOUDINESS SUNDAY NIGHT. LATEST GUIDANCE IS TRACKING
THIS LOW WELL TO OUR NORTH. THICKNESSES INDICATE IT WILL BE JUST
COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA AS THIS LOW TRACKS
NORTH. HOWEVER, WITH A TRACK WELL TO OUR NORTH, ONLY SOME
OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED WITH AMOUNTS PROBABLY LESS THAN
AN INCH ACROSS THE AREA. COLD AIR SURGES IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM ON
TUESDAY. THE DAY WILL BE BRIGHT AND SUNNY WITH A GUSTY NORTHWEST
WIND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY. A WEAK LOW THEN APPROACHING LATE THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY HAS A CHANCE FOR BRINGING A BIT OF SNOW TO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS TODAY TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE
TO VFR CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: MVFR CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DROP TO IFR IN
LOWER CLOUDS SUNDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN IFR MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT
AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS TO OUR NORTH. AN IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS
LIKELY TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: FOR SUSTAINED WINDS WILL USE THE NAM12. FOR WAVES:
PRIMARY WAVE SYSTEM WILL BE SOUTHERLY LONG PERIOD WAVES GENERATED
TO THE SOUTH OF THE GULF OF MAINE BUILDINT TO 6-7 FEET/9-10
SECONDS. WILL KEEP CURRENT SCA TIMING.

SHORT TERM: AN SCA MAY BE NEEDED SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING
FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS FOR WINDS GUSTING UP TO 25 KT. WINDS MAY
REACH SCA IN GUSTS AGAIN ON MONDAY. SEAS MAY ALSO BUILD OVER 7 FT
IN RESPONSE TO THE SOUTH WINDS ON MONDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MIGNONE
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...MIGNONE/BLOOMER
MARINE...MIGNONE/BLOOMER



000
FXUS61 KCAR 270658
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
258 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TODAY AND
TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK WELL SOUTH OF THE GULF OF MAINE ON
SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ONTO THE EAST COAST
ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MAINE WILL MOVE TO THE EAST
TODAY AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE ATLANTIC SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND
TONIGHT AND MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST. HAVE BLENDED THE NAM...GFS AND
ECMWF FOR POPS... QPF AND SKY CONDITIONS. WILL USE THE SUPER BLEND
FOR TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT. COLDER AIR MASS TO THE WEST WILL
MOVE IN ALONG WITH THE UPPER TROUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
OUR FOCUS ON SATURDAY WILL BE ON A STORM SYSTEM TRACKING SOUTH OF
THE GULF OF MAINE. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE IS CARRYING THIS STORM
SYSTEM WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION. HOWEVER, AN INVERTED TROUGH
EXTENDING NORTHWEST FROM THE LOW MAY RESULT IN SOME NORLUN
CONVERGENCE ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN DOWNEAST AREAS WHICH MAY BRING
A PERIOD OF SNOW EARLY SATURDAY. THE LOW WILL QUICKLY MOVE AWAY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS
CLEARING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AND COLD CONDITIONS. SUNDAY WILL BE
MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH OF THE AREA
BRINGS A RETURN WEST WIND, BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY IN THE
AFTERNOON. AFTER A CHILLY MORNING, THE BRIGHT SUNSHINE WILL BOOST
TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 30S ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING INTO QUEBEC WILL BRING INCREASING SOUTH WINDS
AND INCREASING CLOUDINESS SUNDAY NIGHT. LATEST GUIDANCE IS TRACKING
THIS LOW WELL TO OUR NORTH. THICKNESSES INDICATE IT WILL BE JUST
COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA AS THIS LOW TRACKS
NORTH. HOWEVER, WITH A TRACK WELL TO OUR NORTH, ONLY SOME
OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED WITH AMOUNTS PROBABLY LESS THAN
AN INCH ACROSS THE AREA. COLD AIR SURGES IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM ON
TUESDAY. THE DAY WILL BE BRIGHT AND SUNNY WITH A GUSTY NORTHWEST
WIND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY. A WEAK LOW THEN APPROACHING LATE THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY HAS A CHANCE FOR BRINGING A BIT OF SNOW TO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS TODAY TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE
TO VFR CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: MVFR CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DROP TO IFR IN
LOWER CLOUDS SUNDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN IFR MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT
AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS TO OUR NORTH. AN IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS
LIKELY TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: FOR SUSTAINED WINDS WILL USE THE NAM12. FOR WAVES:
PRIMARY WAVE SYSTEM WILL BE SOUTHERLY LONG PERIOD WAVES GENERATED
TO THE SOUTH OF THE GULF OF MAINE BUILDINT TO 6-7 FEET/9-10
SECONDS. WILL KEEP CURRENT SCA TIMING.

SHORT TERM: AN SCA MAY BE NEEDED SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING
FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS FOR WINDS GUSTING UP TO 25 KT. WINDS MAY
REACH SCA IN GUSTS AGAIN ON MONDAY. SEAS MAY ALSO BUILD OVER 7 FT
IN RESPONSE TO THE SOUTH WINDS ON MONDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MIGNONE
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...MIGNONE/BLOOMER
MARINE...MIGNONE/BLOOMER




000
FXUS61 KCAR 270658
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
258 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TODAY AND
TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK WELL SOUTH OF THE GULF OF MAINE ON
SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ONTO THE EAST COAST
ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MAINE WILL MOVE TO THE EAST
TODAY AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE ATLANTIC SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND
TONIGHT AND MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST. HAVE BLENDED THE NAM...GFS AND
ECMWF FOR POPS... QPF AND SKY CONDITIONS. WILL USE THE SUPER BLEND
FOR TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT. COLDER AIR MASS TO THE WEST WILL
MOVE IN ALONG WITH THE UPPER TROUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
OUR FOCUS ON SATURDAY WILL BE ON A STORM SYSTEM TRACKING SOUTH OF
THE GULF OF MAINE. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE IS CARRYING THIS STORM
SYSTEM WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION. HOWEVER, AN INVERTED TROUGH
EXTENDING NORTHWEST FROM THE LOW MAY RESULT IN SOME NORLUN
CONVERGENCE ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN DOWNEAST AREAS WHICH MAY BRING
A PERIOD OF SNOW EARLY SATURDAY. THE LOW WILL QUICKLY MOVE AWAY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS
CLEARING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AND COLD CONDITIONS. SUNDAY WILL BE
MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH OF THE AREA
BRINGS A RETURN WEST WIND, BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY IN THE
AFTERNOON. AFTER A CHILLY MORNING, THE BRIGHT SUNSHINE WILL BOOST
TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 30S ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING INTO QUEBEC WILL BRING INCREASING SOUTH WINDS
AND INCREASING CLOUDINESS SUNDAY NIGHT. LATEST GUIDANCE IS TRACKING
THIS LOW WELL TO OUR NORTH. THICKNESSES INDICATE IT WILL BE JUST
COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA AS THIS LOW TRACKS
NORTH. HOWEVER, WITH A TRACK WELL TO OUR NORTH, ONLY SOME
OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED WITH AMOUNTS PROBABLY LESS THAN
AN INCH ACROSS THE AREA. COLD AIR SURGES IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM ON
TUESDAY. THE DAY WILL BE BRIGHT AND SUNNY WITH A GUSTY NORTHWEST
WIND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY. A WEAK LOW THEN APPROACHING LATE THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY HAS A CHANCE FOR BRINGING A BIT OF SNOW TO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS TODAY TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE
TO VFR CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: MVFR CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DROP TO IFR IN
LOWER CLOUDS SUNDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN IFR MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT
AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS TO OUR NORTH. AN IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS
LIKELY TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: FOR SUSTAINED WINDS WILL USE THE NAM12. FOR WAVES:
PRIMARY WAVE SYSTEM WILL BE SOUTHERLY LONG PERIOD WAVES GENERATED
TO THE SOUTH OF THE GULF OF MAINE BUILDINT TO 6-7 FEET/9-10
SECONDS. WILL KEEP CURRENT SCA TIMING.

SHORT TERM: AN SCA MAY BE NEEDED SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING
FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS FOR WINDS GUSTING UP TO 25 KT. WINDS MAY
REACH SCA IN GUSTS AGAIN ON MONDAY. SEAS MAY ALSO BUILD OVER 7 FT
IN RESPONSE TO THE SOUTH WINDS ON MONDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MIGNONE
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...MIGNONE/BLOOMER
MARINE...MIGNONE/BLOOMER



000
FXUS61 KCAR 270658
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
258 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TODAY AND
TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK WELL SOUTH OF THE GULF OF MAINE ON
SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ONTO THE EAST COAST
ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MAINE WILL MOVE TO THE EAST
TODAY AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE ATLANTIC SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND
TONIGHT AND MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST. HAVE BLENDED THE NAM...GFS AND
ECMWF FOR POPS... QPF AND SKY CONDITIONS. WILL USE THE SUPER BLEND
FOR TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT. COLDER AIR MASS TO THE WEST WILL
MOVE IN ALONG WITH THE UPPER TROUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
OUR FOCUS ON SATURDAY WILL BE ON A STORM SYSTEM TRACKING SOUTH OF
THE GULF OF MAINE. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE IS CARRYING THIS STORM
SYSTEM WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION. HOWEVER, AN INVERTED TROUGH
EXTENDING NORTHWEST FROM THE LOW MAY RESULT IN SOME NORLUN
CONVERGENCE ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN DOWNEAST AREAS WHICH MAY BRING
A PERIOD OF SNOW EARLY SATURDAY. THE LOW WILL QUICKLY MOVE AWAY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS
CLEARING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AND COLD CONDITIONS. SUNDAY WILL BE
MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH OF THE AREA
BRINGS A RETURN WEST WIND, BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY IN THE
AFTERNOON. AFTER A CHILLY MORNING, THE BRIGHT SUNSHINE WILL BOOST
TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 30S ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING INTO QUEBEC WILL BRING INCREASING SOUTH WINDS
AND INCREASING CLOUDINESS SUNDAY NIGHT. LATEST GUIDANCE IS TRACKING
THIS LOW WELL TO OUR NORTH. THICKNESSES INDICATE IT WILL BE JUST
COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA AS THIS LOW TRACKS
NORTH. HOWEVER, WITH A TRACK WELL TO OUR NORTH, ONLY SOME
OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED WITH AMOUNTS PROBABLY LESS THAN
AN INCH ACROSS THE AREA. COLD AIR SURGES IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM ON
TUESDAY. THE DAY WILL BE BRIGHT AND SUNNY WITH A GUSTY NORTHWEST
WIND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY. A WEAK LOW THEN APPROACHING LATE THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY HAS A CHANCE FOR BRINGING A BIT OF SNOW TO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS TODAY TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE
TO VFR CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: MVFR CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DROP TO IFR IN
LOWER CLOUDS SUNDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN IFR MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT
AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS TO OUR NORTH. AN IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS
LIKELY TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: FOR SUSTAINED WINDS WILL USE THE NAM12. FOR WAVES:
PRIMARY WAVE SYSTEM WILL BE SOUTHERLY LONG PERIOD WAVES GENERATED
TO THE SOUTH OF THE GULF OF MAINE BUILDINT TO 6-7 FEET/9-10
SECONDS. WILL KEEP CURRENT SCA TIMING.

SHORT TERM: AN SCA MAY BE NEEDED SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING
FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS FOR WINDS GUSTING UP TO 25 KT. WINDS MAY
REACH SCA IN GUSTS AGAIN ON MONDAY. SEAS MAY ALSO BUILD OVER 7 FT
IN RESPONSE TO THE SOUTH WINDS ON MONDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MIGNONE
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...MIGNONE/BLOOMER
MARINE...MIGNONE/BLOOMER




000
FXUS61 KCAR 270413
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1213 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK SECONDARY LOW WILL TRACK THROUGH THE GULF OF MAINE
OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
UPDATE 0010 EDT: HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT BASED ON
LATEST OBSERVATIONS. NO OTHER CHANGES.

TEMPERATURES WERE SLOWLY FALLING BACK BUT STILL WELL ABOVE 32F AS
FAR NORTH AS FRENCHVILLE. SOME DRIER ADN COLDER AIR WAS WORKING IN
FROM THE WEST W/THE UPPER TROF. THINKING HERE IS THAT OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES WILL STAY UP A FEW DEGREES FROM THE CURRENT FORECAST.
THEREFORE, ADJUSTED THE OVERNIGHT MINS UPWARD. LOWERED SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS AS WELL W/THE LOWERING THE PRECIP CHANCES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
SFC HI PRES FROM CNTRL CAN WILL PUSH CLDS AND PRECIP NOT MUCH
FURTHER S THAN THE GULF OF ME FRI INTO FRI NGT AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROF HANGS BACK OVR THE GREAT LKS AND N CNTRL APLCHNS. COLDER
SEMI-ARCTIC AIR WILL SLOWLY FILTER INTO THE FA FROM QB BEGINNING
VERY LATE TNGT AND CONTG THRU FRI NGT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT. A
LOW TRACKING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MAINE...WITH THE REMNANTS
OF AN OCCLUDED FRONT WRAPPED ACROSS CENTRAL MAINE. HIGHER PRESSURE
BUILDING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION. BY SUN
EVNG...THE LOW WILL TRACK EAST SOUTH OF ERN NOVA SCOTIA WITH
REMNANTS OF THE OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDED ALONG THE COAST OF
MAINE...HIGHER PRESSURE BUILDS INTO NW MAINE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH EARLY MON MRNG.

LOADED A BLEND OF THE NAM/GEM/GFS/ECMWF FOR HRLY
T/DP/WNDS/SKY/POP GRIDS...LOADED A BLEND OF GFS/ECMWF FOR QPF.
ADDED 15 PERCENT TO WNDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND...35 PERCENT OVER
COASTAL WATERS. ADDED NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MODELS CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AT THE START OF THE LONG
TERM. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD. A NEW LOW MOVING EAST ALONG THE NRN PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL
GREAT LAKES...WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SOUTH THROUGH ERN NY.
MON MRNG THE BY MON MRNG THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO WRN MAINE.
MON EVNG THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO WRN MAINE....AND BY TUE AFTERNOON
A RIDGE OF HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD ACROSS...BEFORE A
NEW LOW MOVES INTO CAPE COD REGION...WITH ITS ASSOCIATED FRONT
INTO SRN MAINE BY EARLY WED MRNG. WED MRNG THE GFS AND ECMWF
DIFFER A BIT ON POSITION AND MOVE MVMNT OF THE SYSTEM. THE GFS
MOVES THE LOW EAST ACROSS THE SRN GULF OF MAINE...WITH OCCLUDED
FRONT WRAPPED AROUND INTO CNTRL MAINE. THE ECMWF MOVES TO LOW OVER
CAPE COD WRAPPING THE OCCLUDED FRONT INTO SW MAINE. WED EVNG THE
GFS MOVES THE LOW SE OF NOVA SCOTIA... THE ECMWF MOVES THE LOW
SOUTH OF SW NOVA SCOTIA WITH THE OCCLUSION WRAPPED INTO THE BAY OF
FUNDY. HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS FOR WED NGT AND THURS.
THURS NGT TWO LOWS ONE MOVING NORTH ALONG THE COAST...THE OTHER
MOVING EAST ACROSS THE NRN GREAT LAKES...WILL MOVE INTO MAINE BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD.

LOADED THE SUPERBLEND THROUGH THE PERIOD. ADDED 15 PERCENT TO
WNDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND 35 PERCENT OVER COASTAL WATERS. LOADED
NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MOST TAF SITES CURRENTLY VFR...BUT SHOULD LOWER TO IFR
BY EVE AS RN AND RN CHGNG TO SN MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. NRN MOST
TAF SITES MAY ONLY LOWER TO MVFR OR LOW VFR DUE TO VERY LGT
PRECIP. OTHERWISE AFT THE PRECIP MOVES ESE OF THE FA...ALL TAF
SITES SHOULD RECOVER BACK TO VFR FRI MORN AND CONT SO THRU FRI
NGT.

SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS SAT AND SUN INCREASING CLOUDS BCMG
MVFR IN SCT SNOW SHOWERS ON MON.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: CURRENTLY WVS JUST BLO SCA THRESHOLDS...HOWEVER...WW3
WV GUIDANCE INDICATES SWELLS FROM LOW PRES OVR THE OPEN ATLC MOVG
INTO OUR OUTER MZS AFT MDNGT TNGT AND CONTG THRU FRI...SO WE
ISSUED AN SCA FOR HAZ SEAS FOR THESE MZS. AFTWRDS...WIND GUSTS MAY
REACH OR EXCEED 25 KTS FRI NGT...SO WE MAY NEED TO TRANSITION TO
A GENERIC SCA BY TOMORROW`S AFTN FCST UPDATE. WE WENT CLOSE TO WW3
WV HT GUIDANCE FOR FCST WV HTS THRU THE NEAR TERM THIS UPDATE.

SHORT TERM: AN SCA MAY BE REQUIRED AT THE START OF THE PERIOD AS
A LOW TRACK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE GULF OF MAINE.
WNDS AND SEAS WILL SUBSIDE QUICKLY AS HIGHER PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE REGION AND WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MIGNONE
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...MIGNONE/
MARINE...MIGNONE/



000
FXUS61 KCAR 270413
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1213 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK SECONDARY LOW WILL TRACK THROUGH THE GULF OF MAINE
OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
UPDATE 0010 EDT: HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT BASED ON
LATEST OBSERVATIONS. NO OTHER CHANGES.

TEMPERATURES WERE SLOWLY FALLING BACK BUT STILL WELL ABOVE 32F AS
FAR NORTH AS FRENCHVILLE. SOME DRIER ADN COLDER AIR WAS WORKING IN
FROM THE WEST W/THE UPPER TROF. THINKING HERE IS THAT OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES WILL STAY UP A FEW DEGREES FROM THE CURRENT FORECAST.
THEREFORE, ADJUSTED THE OVERNIGHT MINS UPWARD. LOWERED SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS AS WELL W/THE LOWERING THE PRECIP CHANCES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
SFC HI PRES FROM CNTRL CAN WILL PUSH CLDS AND PRECIP NOT MUCH
FURTHER S THAN THE GULF OF ME FRI INTO FRI NGT AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROF HANGS BACK OVR THE GREAT LKS AND N CNTRL APLCHNS. COLDER
SEMI-ARCTIC AIR WILL SLOWLY FILTER INTO THE FA FROM QB BEGINNING
VERY LATE TNGT AND CONTG THRU FRI NGT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT. A
LOW TRACKING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MAINE...WITH THE REMNANTS
OF AN OCCLUDED FRONT WRAPPED ACROSS CENTRAL MAINE. HIGHER PRESSURE
BUILDING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION. BY SUN
EVNG...THE LOW WILL TRACK EAST SOUTH OF ERN NOVA SCOTIA WITH
REMNANTS OF THE OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDED ALONG THE COAST OF
MAINE...HIGHER PRESSURE BUILDS INTO NW MAINE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH EARLY MON MRNG.

LOADED A BLEND OF THE NAM/GEM/GFS/ECMWF FOR HRLY
T/DP/WNDS/SKY/POP GRIDS...LOADED A BLEND OF GFS/ECMWF FOR QPF.
ADDED 15 PERCENT TO WNDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND...35 PERCENT OVER
COASTAL WATERS. ADDED NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MODELS CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AT THE START OF THE LONG
TERM. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD. A NEW LOW MOVING EAST ALONG THE NRN PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL
GREAT LAKES...WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SOUTH THROUGH ERN NY.
MON MRNG THE BY MON MRNG THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO WRN MAINE.
MON EVNG THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO WRN MAINE....AND BY TUE AFTERNOON
A RIDGE OF HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD ACROSS...BEFORE A
NEW LOW MOVES INTO CAPE COD REGION...WITH ITS ASSOCIATED FRONT
INTO SRN MAINE BY EARLY WED MRNG. WED MRNG THE GFS AND ECMWF
DIFFER A BIT ON POSITION AND MOVE MVMNT OF THE SYSTEM. THE GFS
MOVES THE LOW EAST ACROSS THE SRN GULF OF MAINE...WITH OCCLUDED
FRONT WRAPPED AROUND INTO CNTRL MAINE. THE ECMWF MOVES TO LOW OVER
CAPE COD WRAPPING THE OCCLUDED FRONT INTO SW MAINE. WED EVNG THE
GFS MOVES THE LOW SE OF NOVA SCOTIA... THE ECMWF MOVES THE LOW
SOUTH OF SW NOVA SCOTIA WITH THE OCCLUSION WRAPPED INTO THE BAY OF
FUNDY. HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS FOR WED NGT AND THURS.
THURS NGT TWO LOWS ONE MOVING NORTH ALONG THE COAST...THE OTHER
MOVING EAST ACROSS THE NRN GREAT LAKES...WILL MOVE INTO MAINE BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD.

LOADED THE SUPERBLEND THROUGH THE PERIOD. ADDED 15 PERCENT TO
WNDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND 35 PERCENT OVER COASTAL WATERS. LOADED
NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MOST TAF SITES CURRENTLY VFR...BUT SHOULD LOWER TO IFR
BY EVE AS RN AND RN CHGNG TO SN MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. NRN MOST
TAF SITES MAY ONLY LOWER TO MVFR OR LOW VFR DUE TO VERY LGT
PRECIP. OTHERWISE AFT THE PRECIP MOVES ESE OF THE FA...ALL TAF
SITES SHOULD RECOVER BACK TO VFR FRI MORN AND CONT SO THRU FRI
NGT.

SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS SAT AND SUN INCREASING CLOUDS BCMG
MVFR IN SCT SNOW SHOWERS ON MON.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: CURRENTLY WVS JUST BLO SCA THRESHOLDS...HOWEVER...WW3
WV GUIDANCE INDICATES SWELLS FROM LOW PRES OVR THE OPEN ATLC MOVG
INTO OUR OUTER MZS AFT MDNGT TNGT AND CONTG THRU FRI...SO WE
ISSUED AN SCA FOR HAZ SEAS FOR THESE MZS. AFTWRDS...WIND GUSTS MAY
REACH OR EXCEED 25 KTS FRI NGT...SO WE MAY NEED TO TRANSITION TO
A GENERIC SCA BY TOMORROW`S AFTN FCST UPDATE. WE WENT CLOSE TO WW3
WV HT GUIDANCE FOR FCST WV HTS THRU THE NEAR TERM THIS UPDATE.

SHORT TERM: AN SCA MAY BE REQUIRED AT THE START OF THE PERIOD AS
A LOW TRACK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE GULF OF MAINE.
WNDS AND SEAS WILL SUBSIDE QUICKLY AS HIGHER PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE REGION AND WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MIGNONE
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...MIGNONE/
MARINE...MIGNONE/




000
FXUS61 KGYX 270351
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1151 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE GULF OF MAINE OVERNIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE REGION FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS QUEBEC ON MONDAY
AND WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION MONDAY NIGHT. QUICK
MOVING LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...

1150 PM...AT 03Z A 1003 MILLIBAR LOW WAS VICNITY OF 44005 BUOY
ALONG WAVY FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A SURFACE COLD FRONT WAS DRAPED ALONG
THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. THE STEADIER PRECIPITATION WITH THE
OFFSHORE LOW AND ASSOCIATED BOUNDARY WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE OFFSHORE
OVERNIGHT. I MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO 1ST PERIOD GRIDS TO REFLECT
THE CURRENT MESONET.

PREV DISC... UPDATE... NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT
SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. THIS WIND SHIFT CONTINUES TO ALLOW FOR THE AREAS OF DENSE
FOG TO LIFT. CURRENTLY...ONLY SPOTTY REPORTS OF VSBYS A 1/4 MILE
OR LESS...SO WILL BE DROPPING THE DENSE FOG ADVISORIES THIS
FORECAST PACKAGE.

ONLY TWEAKS AND MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE REMAINDER OF THE GRIDDED
DATABASE.

PREV UPDATE...
DENSE FOG HAS BECOME WIDESPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN MAINE AND
SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE. HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11
PM. NORTHERLY WINDS SHOULD ADVECT SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR INTO THE
REGION AND MIX OUT SOME OF THE FOG AT THAT TIME.

AREAS OF RAIN AND RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE RAPIDLY TO THE
NORTHEAST IN A STRONG GRADIENT FLOW ALOFT. THE CHANGEOVER TO SNOW
WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. SNOW WILL MIX IN OVER CENTRAL AREAS AS WELL BY
AROUND 08Z...BUT THIS IS MAINLY AN ELEVATION BASED SNOW EVENT.

PREV DISC...A POSITIVE TILTED AND PROGRESSIVE LONG WAVE TROUGH
WILL MOVE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. AHEAD OF IT WARM AIR AT ALL
LEVELS SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON. A WEAK WAVE
WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH AND MOVE ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. TO THE NORTH OF THIS WAVE
OVERRUNNINGRAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION WITH SNOW OVER THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. QPF AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM .50-.75 INCHES
WHICH SHOULD NOT POSE ANY FLOODING PROBLEMS. OVERNIGHT COLD AIR
ADVECTION GRADUALLY SPREADS SOUTH ALLOWING THE RAIN TO CHANGE TO
SNOW IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS WITH
SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED BY MORNING. OVER SOUTHERN AREAS
THE PRECIPITATION WILL PROBABLY END BEFORE ENOUGH COLD AIR SPREADS
SOUTH TO CAUSE ANY CHANGEOVER. USED A BLEND OF THE MODELS FOR QPF
AND OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY
PROGRESSES EAST BUT WILL HAVE PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER LINGERING
ACROSS THE AREA. SOME PARTIAL CLEARING MAY OCCUR OVER NORTHERN
AREAS WHILE SOUTHERN AREAS REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE NEAR SEASONAL ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS A BLEND OF THE
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEPENING LOW
PRESSURE WAVE ALONG THE OFFSHORE FRONT WILL REMAIN IN THE GULF
OF MAINE ON SATURDAY... HOWEVER COASTAL SECTIONS OF NH AND MAINE
WILL HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY. SKIES WILL
BE CLOUDY CONTRIBUTING TO A SMALL DIURNAL RISE INTO THE MID 30S
OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN. FARTHER NORTH MID TO UPPER 20S FOR HIGHS
IS MORE LIKELY.

SKIES BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT NORTH TO SOUTH OVERNIGHT AND COLDER AIR
FILTERS IN MAKING FOR A CHILLY NIGHT. SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE
COVERING MOST OF THE NATION MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES
BRINGING A NORTHERLY AND THEN EVENTUALLY WESTERLY WIND GRADIENT
TO NEW ENGLAND. SURFACE TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE AREA RESPOND
TO THIS DOWNSLOPING COMPONENT AS WELL AS SYNOPTIC SCALE WARMING
RESULT IN A WARMING TREND SUNDAY.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ARRIVES MONDAY AS WARM AIR
ADVECTION RAMPS UP AHEAD OF A DEEPENING SURFACE CYCLONE WELL TO
OUR NORTH. THE LITTLE BIT OF COLD AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
SHOULD MOSTLY DAM NORTH OF THE MOUNTAINS AND MODERATE WITHIN 12-18
HOURS. OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE READINGS
REACH THE 40S IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE OCCASIONAL 50 DEGREE
READING TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A WEAK WAVE TRANSPORTS QUICK MOVING
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE
MOVING IT OUT TO SEA. THIS WILL BRING CHANCE PRECIPITATION TO THE
REGION... AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE IT WOULD BRING MIXED PTYPE.
LASTLY MODELS FOLLOW THIS WITH A STRONGER SYSTEM FOR EASTER
WEEKEND WHICH MAY CAUSE HAVE TRAVEL IMPLICATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT IN RAIN...WITH SNOW AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS NORTHERN
NH AND THE WESTERN ME MOUNTAINS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY
RETURN ON FRIDAY AND CONTINUE FRIDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...SCATTERED MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN MOUNTAIN AND
COASTAL SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY. SCATTERED MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
MONDAY IN RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...
A SCA WILL BE REQUIRED OVER THE OUTER WATERS DUE TO EXPECTED
BUILDING SEAS LATER THIS EVENING AND CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY.
WINDS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...WAVES REMAIN HIGH ON SATURDAY BEFORE DROPPING BY
SUNDAY MORNING. SEAS AND WINDS INCREASE BRIEFLY MONDAY MORNING TO
SCA CRITERIA AHEAD OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WARMER WEATHER AND ONE HALF TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF RAIN
WILL INDUCE SOME RUNOFF THIS EVENING. WE WILL LIKELY SEE SOME
RISES ON SOUTHERN RIVERS. AT THE CURRENT TIME WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY
BIG ISSUES. PERHAPS SOME MINOR POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING THIS
EVENING. HOWEVER...WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR ICE MOVEMENT ON
RIVERS AND STREAMS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
ES



000
FXUS61 KGYX 270351
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1151 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE GULF OF MAINE OVERNIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE REGION FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS QUEBEC ON MONDAY
AND WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION MONDAY NIGHT. QUICK
MOVING LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...

1150 PM...AT 03Z A 1003 MILLIBAR LOW WAS VICNITY OF 44005 BUOY
ALONG WAVY FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A SURFACE COLD FRONT WAS DRAPED ALONG
THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. THE STEADIER PRECIPITATION WITH THE
OFFSHORE LOW AND ASSOCIATED BOUNDARY WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE OFFSHORE
OVERNIGHT. I MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO 1ST PERIOD GRIDS TO REFLECT
THE CURRENT MESONET.

PREV DISC... UPDATE... NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT
SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. THIS WIND SHIFT CONTINUES TO ALLOW FOR THE AREAS OF DENSE
FOG TO LIFT. CURRENTLY...ONLY SPOTTY REPORTS OF VSBYS A 1/4 MILE
OR LESS...SO WILL BE DROPPING THE DENSE FOG ADVISORIES THIS
FORECAST PACKAGE.

ONLY TWEAKS AND MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE REMAINDER OF THE GRIDDED
DATABASE.

PREV UPDATE...
DENSE FOG HAS BECOME WIDESPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN MAINE AND
SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE. HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11
PM. NORTHERLY WINDS SHOULD ADVECT SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR INTO THE
REGION AND MIX OUT SOME OF THE FOG AT THAT TIME.

AREAS OF RAIN AND RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE RAPIDLY TO THE
NORTHEAST IN A STRONG GRADIENT FLOW ALOFT. THE CHANGEOVER TO SNOW
WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. SNOW WILL MIX IN OVER CENTRAL AREAS AS WELL BY
AROUND 08Z...BUT THIS IS MAINLY AN ELEVATION BASED SNOW EVENT.

PREV DISC...A POSITIVE TILTED AND PROGRESSIVE LONG WAVE TROUGH
WILL MOVE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. AHEAD OF IT WARM AIR AT ALL
LEVELS SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON. A WEAK WAVE
WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH AND MOVE ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. TO THE NORTH OF THIS WAVE
OVERRUNNINGRAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION WITH SNOW OVER THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. QPF AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM .50-.75 INCHES
WHICH SHOULD NOT POSE ANY FLOODING PROBLEMS. OVERNIGHT COLD AIR
ADVECTION GRADUALLY SPREADS SOUTH ALLOWING THE RAIN TO CHANGE TO
SNOW IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS WITH
SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED BY MORNING. OVER SOUTHERN AREAS
THE PRECIPITATION WILL PROBABLY END BEFORE ENOUGH COLD AIR SPREADS
SOUTH TO CAUSE ANY CHANGEOVER. USED A BLEND OF THE MODELS FOR QPF
AND OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY
PROGRESSES EAST BUT WILL HAVE PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER LINGERING
ACROSS THE AREA. SOME PARTIAL CLEARING MAY OCCUR OVER NORTHERN
AREAS WHILE SOUTHERN AREAS REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE NEAR SEASONAL ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS A BLEND OF THE
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEPENING LOW
PRESSURE WAVE ALONG THE OFFSHORE FRONT WILL REMAIN IN THE GULF
OF MAINE ON SATURDAY... HOWEVER COASTAL SECTIONS OF NH AND MAINE
WILL HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY. SKIES WILL
BE CLOUDY CONTRIBUTING TO A SMALL DIURNAL RISE INTO THE MID 30S
OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN. FARTHER NORTH MID TO UPPER 20S FOR HIGHS
IS MORE LIKELY.

SKIES BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT NORTH TO SOUTH OVERNIGHT AND COLDER AIR
FILTERS IN MAKING FOR A CHILLY NIGHT. SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE
COVERING MOST OF THE NATION MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES
BRINGING A NORTHERLY AND THEN EVENTUALLY WESTERLY WIND GRADIENT
TO NEW ENGLAND. SURFACE TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE AREA RESPOND
TO THIS DOWNSLOPING COMPONENT AS WELL AS SYNOPTIC SCALE WARMING
RESULT IN A WARMING TREND SUNDAY.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ARRIVES MONDAY AS WARM AIR
ADVECTION RAMPS UP AHEAD OF A DEEPENING SURFACE CYCLONE WELL TO
OUR NORTH. THE LITTLE BIT OF COLD AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
SHOULD MOSTLY DAM NORTH OF THE MOUNTAINS AND MODERATE WITHIN 12-18
HOURS. OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE READINGS
REACH THE 40S IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE OCCASIONAL 50 DEGREE
READING TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A WEAK WAVE TRANSPORTS QUICK MOVING
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE
MOVING IT OUT TO SEA. THIS WILL BRING CHANCE PRECIPITATION TO THE
REGION... AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE IT WOULD BRING MIXED PTYPE.
LASTLY MODELS FOLLOW THIS WITH A STRONGER SYSTEM FOR EASTER
WEEKEND WHICH MAY CAUSE HAVE TRAVEL IMPLICATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT IN RAIN...WITH SNOW AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS NORTHERN
NH AND THE WESTERN ME MOUNTAINS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY
RETURN ON FRIDAY AND CONTINUE FRIDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...SCATTERED MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN MOUNTAIN AND
COASTAL SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY. SCATTERED MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
MONDAY IN RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...
A SCA WILL BE REQUIRED OVER THE OUTER WATERS DUE TO EXPECTED
BUILDING SEAS LATER THIS EVENING AND CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY.
WINDS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...WAVES REMAIN HIGH ON SATURDAY BEFORE DROPPING BY
SUNDAY MORNING. SEAS AND WINDS INCREASE BRIEFLY MONDAY MORNING TO
SCA CRITERIA AHEAD OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WARMER WEATHER AND ONE HALF TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF RAIN
WILL INDUCE SOME RUNOFF THIS EVENING. WE WILL LIKELY SEE SOME
RISES ON SOUTHERN RIVERS. AT THE CURRENT TIME WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY
BIG ISSUES. PERHAPS SOME MINOR POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING THIS
EVENING. HOWEVER...WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR ICE MOVEMENT ON
RIVERS AND STREAMS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
ES



000
FXUS61 KGYX 270351
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1151 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE GULF OF MAINE OVERNIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE REGION FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS QUEBEC ON MONDAY
AND WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION MONDAY NIGHT. QUICK
MOVING LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...

1150 PM...AT 03Z A 1003 MILLIBAR LOW WAS VICNITY OF 44005 BUOY
ALONG WAVY FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A SURFACE COLD FRONT WAS DRAPED ALONG
THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. THE STEADIER PRECIPITATION WITH THE
OFFSHORE LOW AND ASSOCIATED BOUNDARY WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE OFFSHORE
OVERNIGHT. I MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO 1ST PERIOD GRIDS TO REFLECT
THE CURRENT MESONET.

PREV DISC... UPDATE... NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT
SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. THIS WIND SHIFT CONTINUES TO ALLOW FOR THE AREAS OF DENSE
FOG TO LIFT. CURRENTLY...ONLY SPOTTY REPORTS OF VSBYS A 1/4 MILE
OR LESS...SO WILL BE DROPPING THE DENSE FOG ADVISORIES THIS
FORECAST PACKAGE.

ONLY TWEAKS AND MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE REMAINDER OF THE GRIDDED
DATABASE.

PREV UPDATE...
DENSE FOG HAS BECOME WIDESPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN MAINE AND
SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE. HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11
PM. NORTHERLY WINDS SHOULD ADVECT SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR INTO THE
REGION AND MIX OUT SOME OF THE FOG AT THAT TIME.

AREAS OF RAIN AND RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE RAPIDLY TO THE
NORTHEAST IN A STRONG GRADIENT FLOW ALOFT. THE CHANGEOVER TO SNOW
WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. SNOW WILL MIX IN OVER CENTRAL AREAS AS WELL BY
AROUND 08Z...BUT THIS IS MAINLY AN ELEVATION BASED SNOW EVENT.

PREV DISC...A POSITIVE TILTED AND PROGRESSIVE LONG WAVE TROUGH
WILL MOVE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. AHEAD OF IT WARM AIR AT ALL
LEVELS SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON. A WEAK WAVE
WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH AND MOVE ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. TO THE NORTH OF THIS WAVE
OVERRUNNINGRAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION WITH SNOW OVER THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. QPF AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM .50-.75 INCHES
WHICH SHOULD NOT POSE ANY FLOODING PROBLEMS. OVERNIGHT COLD AIR
ADVECTION GRADUALLY SPREADS SOUTH ALLOWING THE RAIN TO CHANGE TO
SNOW IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS WITH
SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED BY MORNING. OVER SOUTHERN AREAS
THE PRECIPITATION WILL PROBABLY END BEFORE ENOUGH COLD AIR SPREADS
SOUTH TO CAUSE ANY CHANGEOVER. USED A BLEND OF THE MODELS FOR QPF
AND OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY
PROGRESSES EAST BUT WILL HAVE PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER LINGERING
ACROSS THE AREA. SOME PARTIAL CLEARING MAY OCCUR OVER NORTHERN
AREAS WHILE SOUTHERN AREAS REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE NEAR SEASONAL ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS A BLEND OF THE
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEPENING LOW
PRESSURE WAVE ALONG THE OFFSHORE FRONT WILL REMAIN IN THE GULF
OF MAINE ON SATURDAY... HOWEVER COASTAL SECTIONS OF NH AND MAINE
WILL HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY. SKIES WILL
BE CLOUDY CONTRIBUTING TO A SMALL DIURNAL RISE INTO THE MID 30S
OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN. FARTHER NORTH MID TO UPPER 20S FOR HIGHS
IS MORE LIKELY.

SKIES BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT NORTH TO SOUTH OVERNIGHT AND COLDER AIR
FILTERS IN MAKING FOR A CHILLY NIGHT. SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE
COVERING MOST OF THE NATION MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES
BRINGING A NORTHERLY AND THEN EVENTUALLY WESTERLY WIND GRADIENT
TO NEW ENGLAND. SURFACE TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE AREA RESPOND
TO THIS DOWNSLOPING COMPONENT AS WELL AS SYNOPTIC SCALE WARMING
RESULT IN A WARMING TREND SUNDAY.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ARRIVES MONDAY AS WARM AIR
ADVECTION RAMPS UP AHEAD OF A DEEPENING SURFACE CYCLONE WELL TO
OUR NORTH. THE LITTLE BIT OF COLD AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
SHOULD MOSTLY DAM NORTH OF THE MOUNTAINS AND MODERATE WITHIN 12-18
HOURS. OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE READINGS
REACH THE 40S IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE OCCASIONAL 50 DEGREE
READING TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A WEAK WAVE TRANSPORTS QUICK MOVING
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE
MOVING IT OUT TO SEA. THIS WILL BRING CHANCE PRECIPITATION TO THE
REGION... AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE IT WOULD BRING MIXED PTYPE.
LASTLY MODELS FOLLOW THIS WITH A STRONGER SYSTEM FOR EASTER
WEEKEND WHICH MAY CAUSE HAVE TRAVEL IMPLICATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT IN RAIN...WITH SNOW AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS NORTHERN
NH AND THE WESTERN ME MOUNTAINS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY
RETURN ON FRIDAY AND CONTINUE FRIDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...SCATTERED MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN MOUNTAIN AND
COASTAL SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY. SCATTERED MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
MONDAY IN RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...
A SCA WILL BE REQUIRED OVER THE OUTER WATERS DUE TO EXPECTED
BUILDING SEAS LATER THIS EVENING AND CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY.
WINDS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...WAVES REMAIN HIGH ON SATURDAY BEFORE DROPPING BY
SUNDAY MORNING. SEAS AND WINDS INCREASE BRIEFLY MONDAY MORNING TO
SCA CRITERIA AHEAD OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WARMER WEATHER AND ONE HALF TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF RAIN
WILL INDUCE SOME RUNOFF THIS EVENING. WE WILL LIKELY SEE SOME
RISES ON SOUTHERN RIVERS. AT THE CURRENT TIME WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY
BIG ISSUES. PERHAPS SOME MINOR POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING THIS
EVENING. HOWEVER...WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR ICE MOVEMENT ON
RIVERS AND STREAMS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
ES



000
FXUS61 KGYX 270351
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1151 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE GULF OF MAINE OVERNIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE REGION FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS QUEBEC ON MONDAY
AND WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION MONDAY NIGHT. QUICK
MOVING LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...

1150 PM...AT 03Z A 1003 MILLIBAR LOW WAS VICNITY OF 44005 BUOY
ALONG WAVY FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A SURFACE COLD FRONT WAS DRAPED ALONG
THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. THE STEADIER PRECIPITATION WITH THE
OFFSHORE LOW AND ASSOCIATED BOUNDARY WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE OFFSHORE
OVERNIGHT. I MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO 1ST PERIOD GRIDS TO REFLECT
THE CURRENT MESONET.

PREV DISC... UPDATE... NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT
SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. THIS WIND SHIFT CONTINUES TO ALLOW FOR THE AREAS OF DENSE
FOG TO LIFT. CURRENTLY...ONLY SPOTTY REPORTS OF VSBYS A 1/4 MILE
OR LESS...SO WILL BE DROPPING THE DENSE FOG ADVISORIES THIS
FORECAST PACKAGE.

ONLY TWEAKS AND MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE REMAINDER OF THE GRIDDED
DATABASE.

PREV UPDATE...
DENSE FOG HAS BECOME WIDESPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN MAINE AND
SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE. HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11
PM. NORTHERLY WINDS SHOULD ADVECT SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR INTO THE
REGION AND MIX OUT SOME OF THE FOG AT THAT TIME.

AREAS OF RAIN AND RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE RAPIDLY TO THE
NORTHEAST IN A STRONG GRADIENT FLOW ALOFT. THE CHANGEOVER TO SNOW
WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. SNOW WILL MIX IN OVER CENTRAL AREAS AS WELL BY
AROUND 08Z...BUT THIS IS MAINLY AN ELEVATION BASED SNOW EVENT.

PREV DISC...A POSITIVE TILTED AND PROGRESSIVE LONG WAVE TROUGH
WILL MOVE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. AHEAD OF IT WARM AIR AT ALL
LEVELS SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON. A WEAK WAVE
WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH AND MOVE ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. TO THE NORTH OF THIS WAVE
OVERRUNNINGRAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION WITH SNOW OVER THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. QPF AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM .50-.75 INCHES
WHICH SHOULD NOT POSE ANY FLOODING PROBLEMS. OVERNIGHT COLD AIR
ADVECTION GRADUALLY SPREADS SOUTH ALLOWING THE RAIN TO CHANGE TO
SNOW IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS WITH
SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED BY MORNING. OVER SOUTHERN AREAS
THE PRECIPITATION WILL PROBABLY END BEFORE ENOUGH COLD AIR SPREADS
SOUTH TO CAUSE ANY CHANGEOVER. USED A BLEND OF THE MODELS FOR QPF
AND OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY
PROGRESSES EAST BUT WILL HAVE PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER LINGERING
ACROSS THE AREA. SOME PARTIAL CLEARING MAY OCCUR OVER NORTHERN
AREAS WHILE SOUTHERN AREAS REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE NEAR SEASONAL ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS A BLEND OF THE
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEPENING LOW
PRESSURE WAVE ALONG THE OFFSHORE FRONT WILL REMAIN IN THE GULF
OF MAINE ON SATURDAY... HOWEVER COASTAL SECTIONS OF NH AND MAINE
WILL HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY. SKIES WILL
BE CLOUDY CONTRIBUTING TO A SMALL DIURNAL RISE INTO THE MID 30S
OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN. FARTHER NORTH MID TO UPPER 20S FOR HIGHS
IS MORE LIKELY.

SKIES BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT NORTH TO SOUTH OVERNIGHT AND COLDER AIR
FILTERS IN MAKING FOR A CHILLY NIGHT. SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE
COVERING MOST OF THE NATION MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES
BRINGING A NORTHERLY AND THEN EVENTUALLY WESTERLY WIND GRADIENT
TO NEW ENGLAND. SURFACE TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE AREA RESPOND
TO THIS DOWNSLOPING COMPONENT AS WELL AS SYNOPTIC SCALE WARMING
RESULT IN A WARMING TREND SUNDAY.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ARRIVES MONDAY AS WARM AIR
ADVECTION RAMPS UP AHEAD OF A DEEPENING SURFACE CYCLONE WELL TO
OUR NORTH. THE LITTLE BIT OF COLD AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
SHOULD MOSTLY DAM NORTH OF THE MOUNTAINS AND MODERATE WITHIN 12-18
HOURS. OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE READINGS
REACH THE 40S IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE OCCASIONAL 50 DEGREE
READING TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A WEAK WAVE TRANSPORTS QUICK MOVING
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE
MOVING IT OUT TO SEA. THIS WILL BRING CHANCE PRECIPITATION TO THE
REGION... AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE IT WOULD BRING MIXED PTYPE.
LASTLY MODELS FOLLOW THIS WITH A STRONGER SYSTEM FOR EASTER
WEEKEND WHICH MAY CAUSE HAVE TRAVEL IMPLICATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT IN RAIN...WITH SNOW AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS NORTHERN
NH AND THE WESTERN ME MOUNTAINS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY
RETURN ON FRIDAY AND CONTINUE FRIDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...SCATTERED MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN MOUNTAIN AND
COASTAL SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY. SCATTERED MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
MONDAY IN RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...
A SCA WILL BE REQUIRED OVER THE OUTER WATERS DUE TO EXPECTED
BUILDING SEAS LATER THIS EVENING AND CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY.
WINDS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...WAVES REMAIN HIGH ON SATURDAY BEFORE DROPPING BY
SUNDAY MORNING. SEAS AND WINDS INCREASE BRIEFLY MONDAY MORNING TO
SCA CRITERIA AHEAD OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WARMER WEATHER AND ONE HALF TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF RAIN
WILL INDUCE SOME RUNOFF THIS EVENING. WE WILL LIKELY SEE SOME
RISES ON SOUTHERN RIVERS. AT THE CURRENT TIME WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY
BIG ISSUES. PERHAPS SOME MINOR POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING THIS
EVENING. HOWEVER...WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR ICE MOVEMENT ON
RIVERS AND STREAMS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
ES



000
FXUS61 KGYX 270351
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1151 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE GULF OF MAINE OVERNIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE REGION FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS QUEBEC ON MONDAY
AND WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION MONDAY NIGHT. QUICK
MOVING LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...

1150 PM...AT 03Z A 1003 MILLIBAR LOW WAS VICNITY OF 44005 BUOY
ALONG WAVY FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A SURFACE COLD FRONT WAS DRAPED ALONG
THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. THE STEADIER PRECIPITATION WITH THE
OFFSHORE LOW AND ASSOCIATED BOUNDARY WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE OFFSHORE
OVERNIGHT. I MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO 1ST PERIOD GRIDS TO REFLECT
THE CURRENT MESONET.

PREV DISC... UPDATE... NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT
SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. THIS WIND SHIFT CONTINUES TO ALLOW FOR THE AREAS OF DENSE
FOG TO LIFT. CURRENTLY...ONLY SPOTTY REPORTS OF VSBYS A 1/4 MILE
OR LESS...SO WILL BE DROPPING THE DENSE FOG ADVISORIES THIS
FORECAST PACKAGE.

ONLY TWEAKS AND MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE REMAINDER OF THE GRIDDED
DATABASE.

PREV UPDATE...
DENSE FOG HAS BECOME WIDESPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN MAINE AND
SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE. HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11
PM. NORTHERLY WINDS SHOULD ADVECT SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR INTO THE
REGION AND MIX OUT SOME OF THE FOG AT THAT TIME.

AREAS OF RAIN AND RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE RAPIDLY TO THE
NORTHEAST IN A STRONG GRADIENT FLOW ALOFT. THE CHANGEOVER TO SNOW
WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. SNOW WILL MIX IN OVER CENTRAL AREAS AS WELL BY
AROUND 08Z...BUT THIS IS MAINLY AN ELEVATION BASED SNOW EVENT.

PREV DISC...A POSITIVE TILTED AND PROGRESSIVE LONG WAVE TROUGH
WILL MOVE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. AHEAD OF IT WARM AIR AT ALL
LEVELS SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON. A WEAK WAVE
WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH AND MOVE ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. TO THE NORTH OF THIS WAVE
OVERRUNNINGRAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION WITH SNOW OVER THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. QPF AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM .50-.75 INCHES
WHICH SHOULD NOT POSE ANY FLOODING PROBLEMS. OVERNIGHT COLD AIR
ADVECTION GRADUALLY SPREADS SOUTH ALLOWING THE RAIN TO CHANGE TO
SNOW IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS WITH
SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED BY MORNING. OVER SOUTHERN AREAS
THE PRECIPITATION WILL PROBABLY END BEFORE ENOUGH COLD AIR SPREADS
SOUTH TO CAUSE ANY CHANGEOVER. USED A BLEND OF THE MODELS FOR QPF
AND OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY
PROGRESSES EAST BUT WILL HAVE PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER LINGERING
ACROSS THE AREA. SOME PARTIAL CLEARING MAY OCCUR OVER NORTHERN
AREAS WHILE SOUTHERN AREAS REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE NEAR SEASONAL ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS A BLEND OF THE
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEPENING LOW
PRESSURE WAVE ALONG THE OFFSHORE FRONT WILL REMAIN IN THE GULF
OF MAINE ON SATURDAY... HOWEVER COASTAL SECTIONS OF NH AND MAINE
WILL HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY. SKIES WILL
BE CLOUDY CONTRIBUTING TO A SMALL DIURNAL RISE INTO THE MID 30S
OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN. FARTHER NORTH MID TO UPPER 20S FOR HIGHS
IS MORE LIKELY.

SKIES BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT NORTH TO SOUTH OVERNIGHT AND COLDER AIR
FILTERS IN MAKING FOR A CHILLY NIGHT. SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE
COVERING MOST OF THE NATION MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES
BRINGING A NORTHERLY AND THEN EVENTUALLY WESTERLY WIND GRADIENT
TO NEW ENGLAND. SURFACE TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE AREA RESPOND
TO THIS DOWNSLOPING COMPONENT AS WELL AS SYNOPTIC SCALE WARMING
RESULT IN A WARMING TREND SUNDAY.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ARRIVES MONDAY AS WARM AIR
ADVECTION RAMPS UP AHEAD OF A DEEPENING SURFACE CYCLONE WELL TO
OUR NORTH. THE LITTLE BIT OF COLD AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
SHOULD MOSTLY DAM NORTH OF THE MOUNTAINS AND MODERATE WITHIN 12-18
HOURS. OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE READINGS
REACH THE 40S IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE OCCASIONAL 50 DEGREE
READING TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A WEAK WAVE TRANSPORTS QUICK MOVING
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE
MOVING IT OUT TO SEA. THIS WILL BRING CHANCE PRECIPITATION TO THE
REGION... AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE IT WOULD BRING MIXED PTYPE.
LASTLY MODELS FOLLOW THIS WITH A STRONGER SYSTEM FOR EASTER
WEEKEND WHICH MAY CAUSE HAVE TRAVEL IMPLICATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT IN RAIN...WITH SNOW AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS NORTHERN
NH AND THE WESTERN ME MOUNTAINS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY
RETURN ON FRIDAY AND CONTINUE FRIDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...SCATTERED MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN MOUNTAIN AND
COASTAL SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY. SCATTERED MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
MONDAY IN RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...
A SCA WILL BE REQUIRED OVER THE OUTER WATERS DUE TO EXPECTED
BUILDING SEAS LATER THIS EVENING AND CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY.
WINDS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...WAVES REMAIN HIGH ON SATURDAY BEFORE DROPPING BY
SUNDAY MORNING. SEAS AND WINDS INCREASE BRIEFLY MONDAY MORNING TO
SCA CRITERIA AHEAD OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WARMER WEATHER AND ONE HALF TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF RAIN
WILL INDUCE SOME RUNOFF THIS EVENING. WE WILL LIKELY SEE SOME
RISES ON SOUTHERN RIVERS. AT THE CURRENT TIME WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY
BIG ISSUES. PERHAPS SOME MINOR POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING THIS
EVENING. HOWEVER...WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR ICE MOVEMENT ON
RIVERS AND STREAMS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
ES




000
FXUS61 KGYX 270351
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1151 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE GULF OF MAINE OVERNIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE REGION FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS QUEBEC ON MONDAY
AND WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION MONDAY NIGHT. QUICK
MOVING LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...

1150 PM...AT 03Z A 1003 MILLIBAR LOW WAS VICNITY OF 44005 BUOY
ALONG WAVY FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A SURFACE COLD FRONT WAS DRAPED ALONG
THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. THE STEADIER PRECIPITATION WITH THE
OFFSHORE LOW AND ASSOCIATED BOUNDARY WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE OFFSHORE
OVERNIGHT. I MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO 1ST PERIOD GRIDS TO REFLECT
THE CURRENT MESONET.

PREV DISC... UPDATE... NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT
SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. THIS WIND SHIFT CONTINUES TO ALLOW FOR THE AREAS OF DENSE
FOG TO LIFT. CURRENTLY...ONLY SPOTTY REPORTS OF VSBYS A 1/4 MILE
OR LESS...SO WILL BE DROPPING THE DENSE FOG ADVISORIES THIS
FORECAST PACKAGE.

ONLY TWEAKS AND MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE REMAINDER OF THE GRIDDED
DATABASE.

PREV UPDATE...
DENSE FOG HAS BECOME WIDESPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN MAINE AND
SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE. HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11
PM. NORTHERLY WINDS SHOULD ADVECT SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR INTO THE
REGION AND MIX OUT SOME OF THE FOG AT THAT TIME.

AREAS OF RAIN AND RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE RAPIDLY TO THE
NORTHEAST IN A STRONG GRADIENT FLOW ALOFT. THE CHANGEOVER TO SNOW
WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. SNOW WILL MIX IN OVER CENTRAL AREAS AS WELL BY
AROUND 08Z...BUT THIS IS MAINLY AN ELEVATION BASED SNOW EVENT.

PREV DISC...A POSITIVE TILTED AND PROGRESSIVE LONG WAVE TROUGH
WILL MOVE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. AHEAD OF IT WARM AIR AT ALL
LEVELS SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON. A WEAK WAVE
WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH AND MOVE ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. TO THE NORTH OF THIS WAVE
OVERRUNNINGRAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION WITH SNOW OVER THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. QPF AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM .50-.75 INCHES
WHICH SHOULD NOT POSE ANY FLOODING PROBLEMS. OVERNIGHT COLD AIR
ADVECTION GRADUALLY SPREADS SOUTH ALLOWING THE RAIN TO CHANGE TO
SNOW IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS WITH
SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED BY MORNING. OVER SOUTHERN AREAS
THE PRECIPITATION WILL PROBABLY END BEFORE ENOUGH COLD AIR SPREADS
SOUTH TO CAUSE ANY CHANGEOVER. USED A BLEND OF THE MODELS FOR QPF
AND OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY
PROGRESSES EAST BUT WILL HAVE PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER LINGERING
ACROSS THE AREA. SOME PARTIAL CLEARING MAY OCCUR OVER NORTHERN
AREAS WHILE SOUTHERN AREAS REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE NEAR SEASONAL ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS A BLEND OF THE
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEPENING LOW
PRESSURE WAVE ALONG THE OFFSHORE FRONT WILL REMAIN IN THE GULF
OF MAINE ON SATURDAY... HOWEVER COASTAL SECTIONS OF NH AND MAINE
WILL HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY. SKIES WILL
BE CLOUDY CONTRIBUTING TO A SMALL DIURNAL RISE INTO THE MID 30S
OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN. FARTHER NORTH MID TO UPPER 20S FOR HIGHS
IS MORE LIKELY.

SKIES BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT NORTH TO SOUTH OVERNIGHT AND COLDER AIR
FILTERS IN MAKING FOR A CHILLY NIGHT. SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE
COVERING MOST OF THE NATION MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES
BRINGING A NORTHERLY AND THEN EVENTUALLY WESTERLY WIND GRADIENT
TO NEW ENGLAND. SURFACE TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE AREA RESPOND
TO THIS DOWNSLOPING COMPONENT AS WELL AS SYNOPTIC SCALE WARMING
RESULT IN A WARMING TREND SUNDAY.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ARRIVES MONDAY AS WARM AIR
ADVECTION RAMPS UP AHEAD OF A DEEPENING SURFACE CYCLONE WELL TO
OUR NORTH. THE LITTLE BIT OF COLD AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
SHOULD MOSTLY DAM NORTH OF THE MOUNTAINS AND MODERATE WITHIN 12-18
HOURS. OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE READINGS
REACH THE 40S IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE OCCASIONAL 50 DEGREE
READING TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A WEAK WAVE TRANSPORTS QUICK MOVING
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE
MOVING IT OUT TO SEA. THIS WILL BRING CHANCE PRECIPITATION TO THE
REGION... AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE IT WOULD BRING MIXED PTYPE.
LASTLY MODELS FOLLOW THIS WITH A STRONGER SYSTEM FOR EASTER
WEEKEND WHICH MAY CAUSE HAVE TRAVEL IMPLICATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT IN RAIN...WITH SNOW AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS NORTHERN
NH AND THE WESTERN ME MOUNTAINS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY
RETURN ON FRIDAY AND CONTINUE FRIDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...SCATTERED MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN MOUNTAIN AND
COASTAL SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY. SCATTERED MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
MONDAY IN RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...
A SCA WILL BE REQUIRED OVER THE OUTER WATERS DUE TO EXPECTED
BUILDING SEAS LATER THIS EVENING AND CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY.
WINDS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...WAVES REMAIN HIGH ON SATURDAY BEFORE DROPPING BY
SUNDAY MORNING. SEAS AND WINDS INCREASE BRIEFLY MONDAY MORNING TO
SCA CRITERIA AHEAD OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WARMER WEATHER AND ONE HALF TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF RAIN
WILL INDUCE SOME RUNOFF THIS EVENING. WE WILL LIKELY SEE SOME
RISES ON SOUTHERN RIVERS. AT THE CURRENT TIME WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY
BIG ISSUES. PERHAPS SOME MINOR POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING THIS
EVENING. HOWEVER...WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR ICE MOVEMENT ON
RIVERS AND STREAMS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
ES




000
FXUS61 KGYX 270351
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1151 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE GULF OF MAINE OVERNIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE REGION FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS QUEBEC ON MONDAY
AND WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION MONDAY NIGHT. QUICK
MOVING LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...

1150 PM...AT 03Z A 1003 MILLIBAR LOW WAS VICNITY OF 44005 BUOY
ALONG WAVY FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A SURFACE COLD FRONT WAS DRAPED ALONG
THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. THE STEADIER PRECIPITATION WITH THE
OFFSHORE LOW AND ASSOCIATED BOUNDARY WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE OFFSHORE
OVERNIGHT. I MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO 1ST PERIOD GRIDS TO REFLECT
THE CURRENT MESONET.

PREV DISC... UPDATE... NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT
SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. THIS WIND SHIFT CONTINUES TO ALLOW FOR THE AREAS OF DENSE
FOG TO LIFT. CURRENTLY...ONLY SPOTTY REPORTS OF VSBYS A 1/4 MILE
OR LESS...SO WILL BE DROPPING THE DENSE FOG ADVISORIES THIS
FORECAST PACKAGE.

ONLY TWEAKS AND MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE REMAINDER OF THE GRIDDED
DATABASE.

PREV UPDATE...
DENSE FOG HAS BECOME WIDESPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN MAINE AND
SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE. HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11
PM. NORTHERLY WINDS SHOULD ADVECT SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR INTO THE
REGION AND MIX OUT SOME OF THE FOG AT THAT TIME.

AREAS OF RAIN AND RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE RAPIDLY TO THE
NORTHEAST IN A STRONG GRADIENT FLOW ALOFT. THE CHANGEOVER TO SNOW
WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. SNOW WILL MIX IN OVER CENTRAL AREAS AS WELL BY
AROUND 08Z...BUT THIS IS MAINLY AN ELEVATION BASED SNOW EVENT.

PREV DISC...A POSITIVE TILTED AND PROGRESSIVE LONG WAVE TROUGH
WILL MOVE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. AHEAD OF IT WARM AIR AT ALL
LEVELS SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON. A WEAK WAVE
WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH AND MOVE ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. TO THE NORTH OF THIS WAVE
OVERRUNNINGRAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION WITH SNOW OVER THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. QPF AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM .50-.75 INCHES
WHICH SHOULD NOT POSE ANY FLOODING PROBLEMS. OVERNIGHT COLD AIR
ADVECTION GRADUALLY SPREADS SOUTH ALLOWING THE RAIN TO CHANGE TO
SNOW IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS WITH
SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED BY MORNING. OVER SOUTHERN AREAS
THE PRECIPITATION WILL PROBABLY END BEFORE ENOUGH COLD AIR SPREADS
SOUTH TO CAUSE ANY CHANGEOVER. USED A BLEND OF THE MODELS FOR QPF
AND OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY
PROGRESSES EAST BUT WILL HAVE PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER LINGERING
ACROSS THE AREA. SOME PARTIAL CLEARING MAY OCCUR OVER NORTHERN
AREAS WHILE SOUTHERN AREAS REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE NEAR SEASONAL ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS A BLEND OF THE
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEPENING LOW
PRESSURE WAVE ALONG THE OFFSHORE FRONT WILL REMAIN IN THE GULF
OF MAINE ON SATURDAY... HOWEVER COASTAL SECTIONS OF NH AND MAINE
WILL HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY. SKIES WILL
BE CLOUDY CONTRIBUTING TO A SMALL DIURNAL RISE INTO THE MID 30S
OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN. FARTHER NORTH MID TO UPPER 20S FOR HIGHS
IS MORE LIKELY.

SKIES BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT NORTH TO SOUTH OVERNIGHT AND COLDER AIR
FILTERS IN MAKING FOR A CHILLY NIGHT. SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE
COVERING MOST OF THE NATION MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES
BRINGING A NORTHERLY AND THEN EVENTUALLY WESTERLY WIND GRADIENT
TO NEW ENGLAND. SURFACE TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE AREA RESPOND
TO THIS DOWNSLOPING COMPONENT AS WELL AS SYNOPTIC SCALE WARMING
RESULT IN A WARMING TREND SUNDAY.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ARRIVES MONDAY AS WARM AIR
ADVECTION RAMPS UP AHEAD OF A DEEPENING SURFACE CYCLONE WELL TO
OUR NORTH. THE LITTLE BIT OF COLD AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
SHOULD MOSTLY DAM NORTH OF THE MOUNTAINS AND MODERATE WITHIN 12-18
HOURS. OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE READINGS
REACH THE 40S IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE OCCASIONAL 50 DEGREE
READING TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A WEAK WAVE TRANSPORTS QUICK MOVING
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE
MOVING IT OUT TO SEA. THIS WILL BRING CHANCE PRECIPITATION TO THE
REGION... AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE IT WOULD BRING MIXED PTYPE.
LASTLY MODELS FOLLOW THIS WITH A STRONGER SYSTEM FOR EASTER
WEEKEND WHICH MAY CAUSE HAVE TRAVEL IMPLICATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT IN RAIN...WITH SNOW AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS NORTHERN
NH AND THE WESTERN ME MOUNTAINS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY
RETURN ON FRIDAY AND CONTINUE FRIDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...SCATTERED MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN MOUNTAIN AND
COASTAL SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY. SCATTERED MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
MONDAY IN RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...
A SCA WILL BE REQUIRED OVER THE OUTER WATERS DUE TO EXPECTED
BUILDING SEAS LATER THIS EVENING AND CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY.
WINDS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...WAVES REMAIN HIGH ON SATURDAY BEFORE DROPPING BY
SUNDAY MORNING. SEAS AND WINDS INCREASE BRIEFLY MONDAY MORNING TO
SCA CRITERIA AHEAD OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WARMER WEATHER AND ONE HALF TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF RAIN
WILL INDUCE SOME RUNOFF THIS EVENING. WE WILL LIKELY SEE SOME
RISES ON SOUTHERN RIVERS. AT THE CURRENT TIME WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY
BIG ISSUES. PERHAPS SOME MINOR POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING THIS
EVENING. HOWEVER...WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR ICE MOVEMENT ON
RIVERS AND STREAMS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
ES




000
FXUS61 KGYX 270351
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1151 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE GULF OF MAINE OVERNIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE REGION FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS QUEBEC ON MONDAY
AND WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION MONDAY NIGHT. QUICK
MOVING LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...

1150 PM...AT 03Z A 1003 MILLIBAR LOW WAS VICNITY OF 44005 BUOY
ALONG WAVY FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A SURFACE COLD FRONT WAS DRAPED ALONG
THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. THE STEADIER PRECIPITATION WITH THE
OFFSHORE LOW AND ASSOCIATED BOUNDARY WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE OFFSHORE
OVERNIGHT. I MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO 1ST PERIOD GRIDS TO REFLECT
THE CURRENT MESONET.

PREV DISC... UPDATE... NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT
SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. THIS WIND SHIFT CONTINUES TO ALLOW FOR THE AREAS OF DENSE
FOG TO LIFT. CURRENTLY...ONLY SPOTTY REPORTS OF VSBYS A 1/4 MILE
OR LESS...SO WILL BE DROPPING THE DENSE FOG ADVISORIES THIS
FORECAST PACKAGE.

ONLY TWEAKS AND MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE REMAINDER OF THE GRIDDED
DATABASE.

PREV UPDATE...
DENSE FOG HAS BECOME WIDESPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN MAINE AND
SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE. HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11
PM. NORTHERLY WINDS SHOULD ADVECT SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR INTO THE
REGION AND MIX OUT SOME OF THE FOG AT THAT TIME.

AREAS OF RAIN AND RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE RAPIDLY TO THE
NORTHEAST IN A STRONG GRADIENT FLOW ALOFT. THE CHANGEOVER TO SNOW
WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. SNOW WILL MIX IN OVER CENTRAL AREAS AS WELL BY
AROUND 08Z...BUT THIS IS MAINLY AN ELEVATION BASED SNOW EVENT.

PREV DISC...A POSITIVE TILTED AND PROGRESSIVE LONG WAVE TROUGH
WILL MOVE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. AHEAD OF IT WARM AIR AT ALL
LEVELS SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON. A WEAK WAVE
WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH AND MOVE ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. TO THE NORTH OF THIS WAVE
OVERRUNNINGRAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION WITH SNOW OVER THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. QPF AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM .50-.75 INCHES
WHICH SHOULD NOT POSE ANY FLOODING PROBLEMS. OVERNIGHT COLD AIR
ADVECTION GRADUALLY SPREADS SOUTH ALLOWING THE RAIN TO CHANGE TO
SNOW IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS WITH
SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED BY MORNING. OVER SOUTHERN AREAS
THE PRECIPITATION WILL PROBABLY END BEFORE ENOUGH COLD AIR SPREADS
SOUTH TO CAUSE ANY CHANGEOVER. USED A BLEND OF THE MODELS FOR QPF
AND OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY
PROGRESSES EAST BUT WILL HAVE PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER LINGERING
ACROSS THE AREA. SOME PARTIAL CLEARING MAY OCCUR OVER NORTHERN
AREAS WHILE SOUTHERN AREAS REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE NEAR SEASONAL ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS A BLEND OF THE
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEPENING LOW
PRESSURE WAVE ALONG THE OFFSHORE FRONT WILL REMAIN IN THE GULF
OF MAINE ON SATURDAY... HOWEVER COASTAL SECTIONS OF NH AND MAINE
WILL HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY. SKIES WILL
BE CLOUDY CONTRIBUTING TO A SMALL DIURNAL RISE INTO THE MID 30S
OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN. FARTHER NORTH MID TO UPPER 20S FOR HIGHS
IS MORE LIKELY.

SKIES BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT NORTH TO SOUTH OVERNIGHT AND COLDER AIR
FILTERS IN MAKING FOR A CHILLY NIGHT. SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE
COVERING MOST OF THE NATION MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES
BRINGING A NORTHERLY AND THEN EVENTUALLY WESTERLY WIND GRADIENT
TO NEW ENGLAND. SURFACE TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE AREA RESPOND
TO THIS DOWNSLOPING COMPONENT AS WELL AS SYNOPTIC SCALE WARMING
RESULT IN A WARMING TREND SUNDAY.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ARRIVES MONDAY AS WARM AIR
ADVECTION RAMPS UP AHEAD OF A DEEPENING SURFACE CYCLONE WELL TO
OUR NORTH. THE LITTLE BIT OF COLD AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
SHOULD MOSTLY DAM NORTH OF THE MOUNTAINS AND MODERATE WITHIN 12-18
HOURS. OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE READINGS
REACH THE 40S IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE OCCASIONAL 50 DEGREE
READING TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A WEAK WAVE TRANSPORTS QUICK MOVING
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE
MOVING IT OUT TO SEA. THIS WILL BRING CHANCE PRECIPITATION TO THE
REGION... AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE IT WOULD BRING MIXED PTYPE.
LASTLY MODELS FOLLOW THIS WITH A STRONGER SYSTEM FOR EASTER
WEEKEND WHICH MAY CAUSE HAVE TRAVEL IMPLICATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT IN RAIN...WITH SNOW AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS NORTHERN
NH AND THE WESTERN ME MOUNTAINS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY
RETURN ON FRIDAY AND CONTINUE FRIDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...SCATTERED MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN MOUNTAIN AND
COASTAL SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY. SCATTERED MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
MONDAY IN RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...
A SCA WILL BE REQUIRED OVER THE OUTER WATERS DUE TO EXPECTED
BUILDING SEAS LATER THIS EVENING AND CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY.
WINDS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...WAVES REMAIN HIGH ON SATURDAY BEFORE DROPPING BY
SUNDAY MORNING. SEAS AND WINDS INCREASE BRIEFLY MONDAY MORNING TO
SCA CRITERIA AHEAD OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WARMER WEATHER AND ONE HALF TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF RAIN
WILL INDUCE SOME RUNOFF THIS EVENING. WE WILL LIKELY SEE SOME
RISES ON SOUTHERN RIVERS. AT THE CURRENT TIME WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY
BIG ISSUES. PERHAPS SOME MINOR POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING THIS
EVENING. HOWEVER...WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR ICE MOVEMENT ON
RIVERS AND STREAMS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
ES




000
FXUS61 KCAR 270254
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1054 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK SECONDARY LOW WILL TRACK THROUGH THE GULF OF MAINE
OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
1030 PM UPDATE: 00ZZ SFC ANALYSIS HAD LOW PRES NOW MOVING ACROSS
THE GULF OF MAINE W/THE STEADIEST PRECIP SHIELD FROM CENTRAL MAINE
DOWN ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS. SOME ENHANCED ECHOES SHOWING UP ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN COAST MOVING NE. SOME OF THIS IS BEING AIDED BY A
50-55KT JET AT 850MBS. THERE COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVIER
RAINFALL ACROSS THE HANCOCK AND WASHINGTON COUNTY COAST BY
MIDNIGHT. SO FAR, MOST OF THE PRECIP HAS BEEN LIGHT AND IN THE
FORM OF RAIN. A SHARP CUT OFF IN THE PRECIP SHIELD ACROSS THE
NORTH AND WEST AND A FURTHER REDUCTION IN THE PRECIP WAS NEEDED
DROPPING PERCENTAGES BELOW 20% ACROSS THE ST. JOHN VALLEY AND THE
CARIBOU-PRESQUE ISLE REGION.

TEMPERATURES WERE SLOWLY FALLING BACK BUT STILL WELL ABOVE 32F AS
FAR NORTH AS FRENCHVILLE. SOME DRIER ADN COLDER AIR WAS WORKING IN
FROM THE WEST W/THE UPPER TROF. THINKING HERE IS THAT OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES WILL STAY UP A FEW DEGREES FROM THE CURRENT FORECAST.
THEREFORE, ADJUSTED THE OVERNIGHT MINS UPWARD. LOWERED SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS AS WELL W/THE LOWERING THE PRECIP CHANCES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
SFC HI PRES FROM CNTRL CAN WILL PUSH CLDS AND PRECIP NOT MUCH
FURTHER S THAN THE GULF OF ME FRI INTO FRI NGT AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROF HANGS BACK OVR THE GREAT LKS AND N CNTRL APLCHNS. COLDER
SEMI-ARCTIC AIR WILL SLOWLY FILTER INTO THE FA FROM QB BEGINNING
VERY LATE TNGT AND CONTG THRU FRI NGT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT. A
LOW TRACKING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MAINE...WITH THE REMNANTS
OF AN OCCLUDED FRONT WRAPPED ACROSS CENTRAL MAINE. HIGHER PRESSURE
BUILDING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION. BY SUN
EVNG...THE LOW WILL TRACK EAST SOUTH OF ERN NOVA SCOTIA WITH
REMNANTS OF THE OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDED ALONG THE COAST OF
MAINE...HIGHER PRESSURE BUILDS INTO NW MAINE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH EARLY MON MRNG.

LOADED A BLEND OF THE NAM/GEM/GFS/ECMWF FOR HRLY
T/DP/WNDS/SKY/POP GRIDS...LOADED A BLEND OF GFS/ECMWF FOR QPF.
ADDED 15 PERCENT TO WNDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND...35 PERCENT OVER
COASTAL WATERS. ADDED NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MODELS CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AT THE START OF THE LONG
TERM. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD. A NEW LOW MOVING EAST ALONG THE NRN PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL
GREAT LAKES...WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SOUTH THROUGH ERN NY.
MON MRNG THE BY MON MRNG THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO WRN MAINE.
MON EVNG THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO WRN MAINE....AND BY TUE AFTERNOON
A RIDGE OF HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD ACROSS...BEFORE A
NEW LOW MOVES INTO CAPE COD REGION...WITH ITS ASSOCIATED FRONT
INTO SRN MAINE BY EARLY WED MRNG. WED MRNG THE GFS AND ECMWF
DIFFER A BIT ON POSITION AND MOVE MVMNT OF THE SYSTEM. THE GFS
MOVES THE LOW EAST ACROSS THE SRN GULF OF MAINE...WITH OCCLUDED
FRONT WRAPPED AROUND INTO CNTRL MAINE. THE ECMWF MOVES TO LOW OVER
CAPE COD WRAPPING THE OCCLUDED FRONT INTO SW MAINE. WED EVNG THE
GFS MOVES THE LOW SE OF NOVA SCOTIA... THE ECMWF MOVES THE LOW
SOUTH OF SW NOVA SCOTIA WITH THE OCCLUSION WRAPPED INTO THE BAY OF
FUNDY. HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS FOR WED NGT AND THURS.
THURS NGT TWO LOWS ONE MOVING NORTH ALONG THE COAST...THE OTHER
MOVING EAST ACROSS THE NRN GREAT LAKES...WILL MOVE INTO MAINE BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD.

LOADED THE SUPERBLEND THROUGH THE PERIOD. ADDED 15 PERCENT TO
WNDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND 35 PERCENT OVER COASTAL WATERS. LOADED
NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MOST TAF SITES CURRENTLY VFR...BUT SHOULD LOWER TO IFR
BY EVE AS RN AND RN CHGNG TO SN MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. NRN MOST
TAF SITES MAY ONLY LOWER TO MVFR OR LOW VFR DUE TO VERY LGT
PRECIP. OTHERWISE AFT THE PRECIP MOVES ESE OF THE FA...ALL TAF
SITES SHOULD RECOVER BACK TO VFR FRI MORN AND CONT SO THRU FRI
NGT.

SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS SAT AND SUN INCREASING CLOUDS BCMG
MVFR IN SCT SNOW SHOWERS ON MON.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: CURRENTLY WVS JUST BLO SCA THRESHOLDS...HOWEVER...WW3
WV GUIDANCE INDICATES SWELLS FROM LOW PRES OVR THE OPEN ATLC MOVG
INTO OUR OUTER MZS AFT MDNGT TNGT AND CONTG THRU FRI...SO WE
ISSUED AN SCA FOR HAZ SEAS FOR THESE MZS. AFTWRDS...WIND GUSTS MAY
REACH OR EXCEED 25 KTS FRI NGT...SO WE MAY NEED TO TRANSITION TO
A GENERIC SCA BY TOMORROW`S AFTN FCST UPDATE. WE WENT CLOSE TO WW3
WV HT GUIDANCE FOR FCST WV HTS THRU THE NEAR TERM THIS UPDATE.

SHORT TERM: AN SCA MAY BE REQUIRED AT THE START OF THE PERIOD AS
A LOW TRACK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE GULF OF MAINE.
WNDS AND SEAS WILL SUBSIDE QUICKLY AS HIGHER PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE REGION AND WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HEWITT



000
FXUS61 KCAR 270254
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1054 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK SECONDARY LOW WILL TRACK THROUGH THE GULF OF MAINE
OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
1030 PM UPDATE: 00ZZ SFC ANALYSIS HAD LOW PRES NOW MOVING ACROSS
THE GULF OF MAINE W/THE STEADIEST PRECIP SHIELD FROM CENTRAL MAINE
DOWN ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS. SOME ENHANCED ECHOES SHOWING UP ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN COAST MOVING NE. SOME OF THIS IS BEING AIDED BY A
50-55KT JET AT 850MBS. THERE COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVIER
RAINFALL ACROSS THE HANCOCK AND WASHINGTON COUNTY COAST BY
MIDNIGHT. SO FAR, MOST OF THE PRECIP HAS BEEN LIGHT AND IN THE
FORM OF RAIN. A SHARP CUT OFF IN THE PRECIP SHIELD ACROSS THE
NORTH AND WEST AND A FURTHER REDUCTION IN THE PRECIP WAS NEEDED
DROPPING PERCENTAGES BELOW 20% ACROSS THE ST. JOHN VALLEY AND THE
CARIBOU-PRESQUE ISLE REGION.

TEMPERATURES WERE SLOWLY FALLING BACK BUT STILL WELL ABOVE 32F AS
FAR NORTH AS FRENCHVILLE. SOME DRIER ADN COLDER AIR WAS WORKING IN
FROM THE WEST W/THE UPPER TROF. THINKING HERE IS THAT OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES WILL STAY UP A FEW DEGREES FROM THE CURRENT FORECAST.
THEREFORE, ADJUSTED THE OVERNIGHT MINS UPWARD. LOWERED SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS AS WELL W/THE LOWERING THE PRECIP CHANCES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
SFC HI PRES FROM CNTRL CAN WILL PUSH CLDS AND PRECIP NOT MUCH
FURTHER S THAN THE GULF OF ME FRI INTO FRI NGT AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROF HANGS BACK OVR THE GREAT LKS AND N CNTRL APLCHNS. COLDER
SEMI-ARCTIC AIR WILL SLOWLY FILTER INTO THE FA FROM QB BEGINNING
VERY LATE TNGT AND CONTG THRU FRI NGT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT. A
LOW TRACKING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MAINE...WITH THE REMNANTS
OF AN OCCLUDED FRONT WRAPPED ACROSS CENTRAL MAINE. HIGHER PRESSURE
BUILDING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION. BY SUN
EVNG...THE LOW WILL TRACK EAST SOUTH OF ERN NOVA SCOTIA WITH
REMNANTS OF THE OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDED ALONG THE COAST OF
MAINE...HIGHER PRESSURE BUILDS INTO NW MAINE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH EARLY MON MRNG.

LOADED A BLEND OF THE NAM/GEM/GFS/ECMWF FOR HRLY
T/DP/WNDS/SKY/POP GRIDS...LOADED A BLEND OF GFS/ECMWF FOR QPF.
ADDED 15 PERCENT TO WNDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND...35 PERCENT OVER
COASTAL WATERS. ADDED NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MODELS CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AT THE START OF THE LONG
TERM. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD. A NEW LOW MOVING EAST ALONG THE NRN PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL
GREAT LAKES...WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SOUTH THROUGH ERN NY.
MON MRNG THE BY MON MRNG THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO WRN MAINE.
MON EVNG THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO WRN MAINE....AND BY TUE AFTERNOON
A RIDGE OF HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD ACROSS...BEFORE A
NEW LOW MOVES INTO CAPE COD REGION...WITH ITS ASSOCIATED FRONT
INTO SRN MAINE BY EARLY WED MRNG. WED MRNG THE GFS AND ECMWF
DIFFER A BIT ON POSITION AND MOVE MVMNT OF THE SYSTEM. THE GFS
MOVES THE LOW EAST ACROSS THE SRN GULF OF MAINE...WITH OCCLUDED
FRONT WRAPPED AROUND INTO CNTRL MAINE. THE ECMWF MOVES TO LOW OVER
CAPE COD WRAPPING THE OCCLUDED FRONT INTO SW MAINE. WED EVNG THE
GFS MOVES THE LOW SE OF NOVA SCOTIA... THE ECMWF MOVES THE LOW
SOUTH OF SW NOVA SCOTIA WITH THE OCCLUSION WRAPPED INTO THE BAY OF
FUNDY. HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS FOR WED NGT AND THURS.
THURS NGT TWO LOWS ONE MOVING NORTH ALONG THE COAST...THE OTHER
MOVING EAST ACROSS THE NRN GREAT LAKES...WILL MOVE INTO MAINE BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD.

LOADED THE SUPERBLEND THROUGH THE PERIOD. ADDED 15 PERCENT TO
WNDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND 35 PERCENT OVER COASTAL WATERS. LOADED
NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MOST TAF SITES CURRENTLY VFR...BUT SHOULD LOWER TO IFR
BY EVE AS RN AND RN CHGNG TO SN MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. NRN MOST
TAF SITES MAY ONLY LOWER TO MVFR OR LOW VFR DUE TO VERY LGT
PRECIP. OTHERWISE AFT THE PRECIP MOVES ESE OF THE FA...ALL TAF
SITES SHOULD RECOVER BACK TO VFR FRI MORN AND CONT SO THRU FRI
NGT.

SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS SAT AND SUN INCREASING CLOUDS BCMG
MVFR IN SCT SNOW SHOWERS ON MON.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: CURRENTLY WVS JUST BLO SCA THRESHOLDS...HOWEVER...WW3
WV GUIDANCE INDICATES SWELLS FROM LOW PRES OVR THE OPEN ATLC MOVG
INTO OUR OUTER MZS AFT MDNGT TNGT AND CONTG THRU FRI...SO WE
ISSUED AN SCA FOR HAZ SEAS FOR THESE MZS. AFTWRDS...WIND GUSTS MAY
REACH OR EXCEED 25 KTS FRI NGT...SO WE MAY NEED TO TRANSITION TO
A GENERIC SCA BY TOMORROW`S AFTN FCST UPDATE. WE WENT CLOSE TO WW3
WV HT GUIDANCE FOR FCST WV HTS THRU THE NEAR TERM THIS UPDATE.

SHORT TERM: AN SCA MAY BE REQUIRED AT THE START OF THE PERIOD AS
A LOW TRACK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE GULF OF MAINE.
WNDS AND SEAS WILL SUBSIDE QUICKLY AS HIGHER PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE REGION AND WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HEWITT




000
FXUS61 KCAR 270254
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1054 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK SECONDARY LOW WILL TRACK THROUGH THE GULF OF MAINE
OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
1030 PM UPDATE: 00ZZ SFC ANALYSIS HAD LOW PRES NOW MOVING ACROSS
THE GULF OF MAINE W/THE STEADIEST PRECIP SHIELD FROM CENTRAL MAINE
DOWN ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS. SOME ENHANCED ECHOES SHOWING UP ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN COAST MOVING NE. SOME OF THIS IS BEING AIDED BY A
50-55KT JET AT 850MBS. THERE COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVIER
RAINFALL ACROSS THE HANCOCK AND WASHINGTON COUNTY COAST BY
MIDNIGHT. SO FAR, MOST OF THE PRECIP HAS BEEN LIGHT AND IN THE
FORM OF RAIN. A SHARP CUT OFF IN THE PRECIP SHIELD ACROSS THE
NORTH AND WEST AND A FURTHER REDUCTION IN THE PRECIP WAS NEEDED
DROPPING PERCENTAGES BELOW 20% ACROSS THE ST. JOHN VALLEY AND THE
CARIBOU-PRESQUE ISLE REGION.

TEMPERATURES WERE SLOWLY FALLING BACK BUT STILL WELL ABOVE 32F AS
FAR NORTH AS FRENCHVILLE. SOME DRIER ADN COLDER AIR WAS WORKING IN
FROM THE WEST W/THE UPPER TROF. THINKING HERE IS THAT OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES WILL STAY UP A FEW DEGREES FROM THE CURRENT FORECAST.
THEREFORE, ADJUSTED THE OVERNIGHT MINS UPWARD. LOWERED SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS AS WELL W/THE LOWERING THE PRECIP CHANCES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
SFC HI PRES FROM CNTRL CAN WILL PUSH CLDS AND PRECIP NOT MUCH
FURTHER S THAN THE GULF OF ME FRI INTO FRI NGT AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROF HANGS BACK OVR THE GREAT LKS AND N CNTRL APLCHNS. COLDER
SEMI-ARCTIC AIR WILL SLOWLY FILTER INTO THE FA FROM QB BEGINNING
VERY LATE TNGT AND CONTG THRU FRI NGT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT. A
LOW TRACKING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MAINE...WITH THE REMNANTS
OF AN OCCLUDED FRONT WRAPPED ACROSS CENTRAL MAINE. HIGHER PRESSURE
BUILDING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION. BY SUN
EVNG...THE LOW WILL TRACK EAST SOUTH OF ERN NOVA SCOTIA WITH
REMNANTS OF THE OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDED ALONG THE COAST OF
MAINE...HIGHER PRESSURE BUILDS INTO NW MAINE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH EARLY MON MRNG.

LOADED A BLEND OF THE NAM/GEM/GFS/ECMWF FOR HRLY
T/DP/WNDS/SKY/POP GRIDS...LOADED A BLEND OF GFS/ECMWF FOR QPF.
ADDED 15 PERCENT TO WNDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND...35 PERCENT OVER
COASTAL WATERS. ADDED NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MODELS CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AT THE START OF THE LONG
TERM. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD. A NEW LOW MOVING EAST ALONG THE NRN PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL
GREAT LAKES...WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SOUTH THROUGH ERN NY.
MON MRNG THE BY MON MRNG THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO WRN MAINE.
MON EVNG THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO WRN MAINE....AND BY TUE AFTERNOON
A RIDGE OF HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD ACROSS...BEFORE A
NEW LOW MOVES INTO CAPE COD REGION...WITH ITS ASSOCIATED FRONT
INTO SRN MAINE BY EARLY WED MRNG. WED MRNG THE GFS AND ECMWF
DIFFER A BIT ON POSITION AND MOVE MVMNT OF THE SYSTEM. THE GFS
MOVES THE LOW EAST ACROSS THE SRN GULF OF MAINE...WITH OCCLUDED
FRONT WRAPPED AROUND INTO CNTRL MAINE. THE ECMWF MOVES TO LOW OVER
CAPE COD WRAPPING THE OCCLUDED FRONT INTO SW MAINE. WED EVNG THE
GFS MOVES THE LOW SE OF NOVA SCOTIA... THE ECMWF MOVES THE LOW
SOUTH OF SW NOVA SCOTIA WITH THE OCCLUSION WRAPPED INTO THE BAY OF
FUNDY. HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS FOR WED NGT AND THURS.
THURS NGT TWO LOWS ONE MOVING NORTH ALONG THE COAST...THE OTHER
MOVING EAST ACROSS THE NRN GREAT LAKES...WILL MOVE INTO MAINE BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD.

LOADED THE SUPERBLEND THROUGH THE PERIOD. ADDED 15 PERCENT TO
WNDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND 35 PERCENT OVER COASTAL WATERS. LOADED
NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MOST TAF SITES CURRENTLY VFR...BUT SHOULD LOWER TO IFR
BY EVE AS RN AND RN CHGNG TO SN MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. NRN MOST
TAF SITES MAY ONLY LOWER TO MVFR OR LOW VFR DUE TO VERY LGT
PRECIP. OTHERWISE AFT THE PRECIP MOVES ESE OF THE FA...ALL TAF
SITES SHOULD RECOVER BACK TO VFR FRI MORN AND CONT SO THRU FRI
NGT.

SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS SAT AND SUN INCREASING CLOUDS BCMG
MVFR IN SCT SNOW SHOWERS ON MON.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: CURRENTLY WVS JUST BLO SCA THRESHOLDS...HOWEVER...WW3
WV GUIDANCE INDICATES SWELLS FROM LOW PRES OVR THE OPEN ATLC MOVG
INTO OUR OUTER MZS AFT MDNGT TNGT AND CONTG THRU FRI...SO WE
ISSUED AN SCA FOR HAZ SEAS FOR THESE MZS. AFTWRDS...WIND GUSTS MAY
REACH OR EXCEED 25 KTS FRI NGT...SO WE MAY NEED TO TRANSITION TO
A GENERIC SCA BY TOMORROW`S AFTN FCST UPDATE. WE WENT CLOSE TO WW3
WV HT GUIDANCE FOR FCST WV HTS THRU THE NEAR TERM THIS UPDATE.

SHORT TERM: AN SCA MAY BE REQUIRED AT THE START OF THE PERIOD AS
A LOW TRACK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE GULF OF MAINE.
WNDS AND SEAS WILL SUBSIDE QUICKLY AS HIGHER PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE REGION AND WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HEWITT



000
FXUS61 KCAR 270254
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1054 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK SECONDARY LOW WILL TRACK THROUGH THE GULF OF MAINE
OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
1030 PM UPDATE: 00ZZ SFC ANALYSIS HAD LOW PRES NOW MOVING ACROSS
THE GULF OF MAINE W/THE STEADIEST PRECIP SHIELD FROM CENTRAL MAINE
DOWN ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS. SOME ENHANCED ECHOES SHOWING UP ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN COAST MOVING NE. SOME OF THIS IS BEING AIDED BY A
50-55KT JET AT 850MBS. THERE COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVIER
RAINFALL ACROSS THE HANCOCK AND WASHINGTON COUNTY COAST BY
MIDNIGHT. SO FAR, MOST OF THE PRECIP HAS BEEN LIGHT AND IN THE
FORM OF RAIN. A SHARP CUT OFF IN THE PRECIP SHIELD ACROSS THE
NORTH AND WEST AND A FURTHER REDUCTION IN THE PRECIP WAS NEEDED
DROPPING PERCENTAGES BELOW 20% ACROSS THE ST. JOHN VALLEY AND THE
CARIBOU-PRESQUE ISLE REGION.

TEMPERATURES WERE SLOWLY FALLING BACK BUT STILL WELL ABOVE 32F AS
FAR NORTH AS FRENCHVILLE. SOME DRIER ADN COLDER AIR WAS WORKING IN
FROM THE WEST W/THE UPPER TROF. THINKING HERE IS THAT OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES WILL STAY UP A FEW DEGREES FROM THE CURRENT FORECAST.
THEREFORE, ADJUSTED THE OVERNIGHT MINS UPWARD. LOWERED SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS AS WELL W/THE LOWERING THE PRECIP CHANCES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
SFC HI PRES FROM CNTRL CAN WILL PUSH CLDS AND PRECIP NOT MUCH
FURTHER S THAN THE GULF OF ME FRI INTO FRI NGT AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROF HANGS BACK OVR THE GREAT LKS AND N CNTRL APLCHNS. COLDER
SEMI-ARCTIC AIR WILL SLOWLY FILTER INTO THE FA FROM QB BEGINNING
VERY LATE TNGT AND CONTG THRU FRI NGT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT. A
LOW TRACKING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MAINE...WITH THE REMNANTS
OF AN OCCLUDED FRONT WRAPPED ACROSS CENTRAL MAINE. HIGHER PRESSURE
BUILDING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION. BY SUN
EVNG...THE LOW WILL TRACK EAST SOUTH OF ERN NOVA SCOTIA WITH
REMNANTS OF THE OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDED ALONG THE COAST OF
MAINE...HIGHER PRESSURE BUILDS INTO NW MAINE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH EARLY MON MRNG.

LOADED A BLEND OF THE NAM/GEM/GFS/ECMWF FOR HRLY
T/DP/WNDS/SKY/POP GRIDS...LOADED A BLEND OF GFS/ECMWF FOR QPF.
ADDED 15 PERCENT TO WNDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND...35 PERCENT OVER
COASTAL WATERS. ADDED NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MODELS CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AT THE START OF THE LONG
TERM. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD. A NEW LOW MOVING EAST ALONG THE NRN PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL
GREAT LAKES...WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SOUTH THROUGH ERN NY.
MON MRNG THE BY MON MRNG THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO WRN MAINE.
MON EVNG THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO WRN MAINE....AND BY TUE AFTERNOON
A RIDGE OF HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD ACROSS...BEFORE A
NEW LOW MOVES INTO CAPE COD REGION...WITH ITS ASSOCIATED FRONT
INTO SRN MAINE BY EARLY WED MRNG. WED MRNG THE GFS AND ECMWF
DIFFER A BIT ON POSITION AND MOVE MVMNT OF THE SYSTEM. THE GFS
MOVES THE LOW EAST ACROSS THE SRN GULF OF MAINE...WITH OCCLUDED
FRONT WRAPPED AROUND INTO CNTRL MAINE. THE ECMWF MOVES TO LOW OVER
CAPE COD WRAPPING THE OCCLUDED FRONT INTO SW MAINE. WED EVNG THE
GFS MOVES THE LOW SE OF NOVA SCOTIA... THE ECMWF MOVES THE LOW
SOUTH OF SW NOVA SCOTIA WITH THE OCCLUSION WRAPPED INTO THE BAY OF
FUNDY. HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS FOR WED NGT AND THURS.
THURS NGT TWO LOWS ONE MOVING NORTH ALONG THE COAST...THE OTHER
MOVING EAST ACROSS THE NRN GREAT LAKES...WILL MOVE INTO MAINE BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD.

LOADED THE SUPERBLEND THROUGH THE PERIOD. ADDED 15 PERCENT TO
WNDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND 35 PERCENT OVER COASTAL WATERS. LOADED
NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MOST TAF SITES CURRENTLY VFR...BUT SHOULD LOWER TO IFR
BY EVE AS RN AND RN CHGNG TO SN MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. NRN MOST
TAF SITES MAY ONLY LOWER TO MVFR OR LOW VFR DUE TO VERY LGT
PRECIP. OTHERWISE AFT THE PRECIP MOVES ESE OF THE FA...ALL TAF
SITES SHOULD RECOVER BACK TO VFR FRI MORN AND CONT SO THRU FRI
NGT.

SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS SAT AND SUN INCREASING CLOUDS BCMG
MVFR IN SCT SNOW SHOWERS ON MON.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: CURRENTLY WVS JUST BLO SCA THRESHOLDS...HOWEVER...WW3
WV GUIDANCE INDICATES SWELLS FROM LOW PRES OVR THE OPEN ATLC MOVG
INTO OUR OUTER MZS AFT MDNGT TNGT AND CONTG THRU FRI...SO WE
ISSUED AN SCA FOR HAZ SEAS FOR THESE MZS. AFTWRDS...WIND GUSTS MAY
REACH OR EXCEED 25 KTS FRI NGT...SO WE MAY NEED TO TRANSITION TO
A GENERIC SCA BY TOMORROW`S AFTN FCST UPDATE. WE WENT CLOSE TO WW3
WV HT GUIDANCE FOR FCST WV HTS THRU THE NEAR TERM THIS UPDATE.

SHORT TERM: AN SCA MAY BE REQUIRED AT THE START OF THE PERIOD AS
A LOW TRACK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE GULF OF MAINE.
WNDS AND SEAS WILL SUBSIDE QUICKLY AS HIGHER PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE REGION AND WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HEWITT




000
FXUS61 KGYX 270139
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
939 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS EVENING.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE REGION FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS QUEBEC ON
MONDAY AND WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION MONDAY NIGHT.
QUICK MOVING LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
UPDATE...
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER
AIR INTO THE REGION DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS WIND SHIFT
CONTINUES TO ALLOW FOR THE AREAS OF DENSE FOG TO LIFT.
CURRENTLY...ONLY SPOTTY REPORTS OF VSBYS A 1/4 MILE OR LESS...SO
WILL BE DROPPING THE DENSE FOG ADVISORIES THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.

ONLY TWEAKS AND MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE REMAINDER OF THE GRIDDED
DATABASE.

PREV UPDATE...
DENSE FOG HAS BECOME WIDESPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN MAINE AND
SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE. HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11
PM. NORTHERLY WINDS SHOULD ADVECT SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR INTO THE
REGION AND MIX OUT SOME OF THE FOG AT THAT TIME.

AREAS OF RAIN AND RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE RAPIDLY TO THE
NORTHEAST IN A STRONG GRADIENT FLOW ALOFT. THE CHANGEOVER TO SNOW
WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. SNOW WILL MIX IN OVER CENTRAL AREAS AS WELL BY
AROUND 08Z...BUT THIS IS MAINLY AN ELEVATION BASED SNOW EVENT.

PREV DISC...A POSITIVE TILTED AND PROGRESSIVE LONG WAVE TROUGH
WILL MOVE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. AHEAD OF IT WARM AIR AT ALL
LEVELS SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON. A WEAK WAVE
WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH AND MOVE ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. TO THE NORTH OF THIS WAVE OVERUNNING
RAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION WITH SNOW OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. QPF AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM .50-.75 INCHES WHICH
SHOULD NOT POSE ANY FLOODING PROBLEMS. OVERNIGHT COLD AIR
ADVECTION GRADUALLY SPREADS SOUTH ALLOWING THE RAIN TO CHANGE TO
SNOW IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS WITH
SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED BY MORNING. OVER SOUTHERN AREAS
THE PRECIPITATION WILL PROBABLY END BEFORE ENOUGH COLD AIR SPREADS
SOUTH TO CAUSE ANY CHANGEOVER. USED A BLEND OF THE MODELS FOR QPF
AND OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY
PROGRESSES EAST BUT WILL HAVE PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER LINGERING
ACROSS THE AREA. SOME PARTIAL CLEARING MAY OCCUR OVER NORTHERN
AREAS WHILE SOUTHERN AREAS REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE NEAR SEASONAL ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS A BLEND OF THE
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEPENING LOW
PRESSURE WAVE ALONG THE OFFSHORE FRONT WILL REMAIN IN THE GULF
OF MAINE ON SATURDAY... HOWEVER COASTAL SECTIONS OF NH AND MAINE
WILL HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY. SKIES WILL
BE CLOUDY CONTRIBUTING TO A SMALL DIURNAL RISE INTO THE MID 30S
OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN. FARTHER NORTH MID TO UPPER 20S FOR HIGHS
IS MORE LIKELY.

SKIES BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT NORTH TO SOUTH OVERNIGHT AND COLDER AIR
FILTERS IN MAKING FOR A CHILLY NIGHT. SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE
COVERING MOST OF THE NATION MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES
BRINGING A NORTHERLY AND THEN EVENTUALLY WESTERLY WIND GRADIENT
TO NEW ENGLAND. SURFACE TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE AREA RESPOND
TO THIS DOWNSLOPING COMPONENT AS WELL AS SYNOPTIC SCALE WARMING
RESULT IN A WARMING TREND SUNDAY.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ARRIVES MONDAY AS WARM AIR
ADVECTION RAMPS UP AHEAD OF A DEEPENING SURFACE CYCLONE WELL TO
OUR NORTH. THE LITTLE BIT OF COLD AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
SHOULD MOSTLY DAM NORTH OF THE MOUNTAINS AND MODERATE WITHIN 12-18
HOURS. OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE READINGS
REACH THE 40S IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE OCCASIONAL 50 DEGREE
READING TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A WEAK WAVE TRANSPORTS QUICK MOVING
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE
MOVING IT OUT TO SEA. THIS WILL BRING CHANCE PRECIPITATION TO THE
REGION... AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE IT WOULD BRING MIXED PTYPE.
LASTLY MODELS FOLLOW THIS WITH A STRONGER SYSTEM FOR EASTER
WEEKEND WHICH MAY CAUSE HAVE TRAVEL IMPLICATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT IN RAIN...WITH SNOW AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS NORTHERN
NH AND THE WESTERN ME MOUNTAINS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY
RETURN ON FRIDAY AND CONTINUE FRIDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...SCATTERED MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN MOUNTAIN AND
COASTAL SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY. SCATTERED MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
MONDAY IN RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...
A SCA WILL BE REQUIRED OVER THE OUTER WATERS DUE TO EXPECTED
BUILDING SEAS LATER THIS EVENING AND CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY.
WINDS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...WAVES REMAIN HIGH ON SATURDAY BEFORE DROPPING BY
SUNDAY MORNING. SEAS AND WINDS INCREASE BRIEFLY MONDAY MORNING TO
SCA CRITERIA AHEAD OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WARMER WEATHER AND ONE HALF TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF RAIN
WILL INDUCE SOME RUNOFF THIS EVENING. WE WILL LIKELY SEE SOME
RISES ON SOUTHERN RIVERS. AT THE CURRENT TIME WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY
BIG ISSUES. PERHAPS SOME MINOR POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING THIS
EVENING. HOWEVER...WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR ICE MOVEMENT ON
RIVERS AND STREAMS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KGYX 270139
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
939 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS EVENING.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE REGION FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS QUEBEC ON
MONDAY AND WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION MONDAY NIGHT.
QUICK MOVING LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
UPDATE...
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER
AIR INTO THE REGION DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS WIND SHIFT
CONTINUES TO ALLOW FOR THE AREAS OF DENSE FOG TO LIFT.
CURRENTLY...ONLY SPOTTY REPORTS OF VSBYS A 1/4 MILE OR LESS...SO
WILL BE DROPPING THE DENSE FOG ADVISORIES THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.

ONLY TWEAKS AND MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE REMAINDER OF THE GRIDDED
DATABASE.

PREV UPDATE...
DENSE FOG HAS BECOME WIDESPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN MAINE AND
SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE. HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11
PM. NORTHERLY WINDS SHOULD ADVECT SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR INTO THE
REGION AND MIX OUT SOME OF THE FOG AT THAT TIME.

AREAS OF RAIN AND RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE RAPIDLY TO THE
NORTHEAST IN A STRONG GRADIENT FLOW ALOFT. THE CHANGEOVER TO SNOW
WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. SNOW WILL MIX IN OVER CENTRAL AREAS AS WELL BY
AROUND 08Z...BUT THIS IS MAINLY AN ELEVATION BASED SNOW EVENT.

PREV DISC...A POSITIVE TILTED AND PROGRESSIVE LONG WAVE TROUGH
WILL MOVE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. AHEAD OF IT WARM AIR AT ALL
LEVELS SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON. A WEAK WAVE
WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH AND MOVE ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. TO THE NORTH OF THIS WAVE OVERUNNING
RAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION WITH SNOW OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. QPF AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM .50-.75 INCHES WHICH
SHOULD NOT POSE ANY FLOODING PROBLEMS. OVERNIGHT COLD AIR
ADVECTION GRADUALLY SPREADS SOUTH ALLOWING THE RAIN TO CHANGE TO
SNOW IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS WITH
SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED BY MORNING. OVER SOUTHERN AREAS
THE PRECIPITATION WILL PROBABLY END BEFORE ENOUGH COLD AIR SPREADS
SOUTH TO CAUSE ANY CHANGEOVER. USED A BLEND OF THE MODELS FOR QPF
AND OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY
PROGRESSES EAST BUT WILL HAVE PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER LINGERING
ACROSS THE AREA. SOME PARTIAL CLEARING MAY OCCUR OVER NORTHERN
AREAS WHILE SOUTHERN AREAS REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE NEAR SEASONAL ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS A BLEND OF THE
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEPENING LOW
PRESSURE WAVE ALONG THE OFFSHORE FRONT WILL REMAIN IN THE GULF
OF MAINE ON SATURDAY... HOWEVER COASTAL SECTIONS OF NH AND MAINE
WILL HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY. SKIES WILL
BE CLOUDY CONTRIBUTING TO A SMALL DIURNAL RISE INTO THE MID 30S
OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN. FARTHER NORTH MID TO UPPER 20S FOR HIGHS
IS MORE LIKELY.

SKIES BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT NORTH TO SOUTH OVERNIGHT AND COLDER AIR
FILTERS IN MAKING FOR A CHILLY NIGHT. SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE
COVERING MOST OF THE NATION MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES
BRINGING A NORTHERLY AND THEN EVENTUALLY WESTERLY WIND GRADIENT
TO NEW ENGLAND. SURFACE TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE AREA RESPOND
TO THIS DOWNSLOPING COMPONENT AS WELL AS SYNOPTIC SCALE WARMING
RESULT IN A WARMING TREND SUNDAY.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ARRIVES MONDAY AS WARM AIR
ADVECTION RAMPS UP AHEAD OF A DEEPENING SURFACE CYCLONE WELL TO
OUR NORTH. THE LITTLE BIT OF COLD AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
SHOULD MOSTLY DAM NORTH OF THE MOUNTAINS AND MODERATE WITHIN 12-18
HOURS. OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE READINGS
REACH THE 40S IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE OCCASIONAL 50 DEGREE
READING TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A WEAK WAVE TRANSPORTS QUICK MOVING
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE
MOVING IT OUT TO SEA. THIS WILL BRING CHANCE PRECIPITATION TO THE
REGION... AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE IT WOULD BRING MIXED PTYPE.
LASTLY MODELS FOLLOW THIS WITH A STRONGER SYSTEM FOR EASTER
WEEKEND WHICH MAY CAUSE HAVE TRAVEL IMPLICATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT IN RAIN...WITH SNOW AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS NORTHERN
NH AND THE WESTERN ME MOUNTAINS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY
RETURN ON FRIDAY AND CONTINUE FRIDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...SCATTERED MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN MOUNTAIN AND
COASTAL SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY. SCATTERED MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
MONDAY IN RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...
A SCA WILL BE REQUIRED OVER THE OUTER WATERS DUE TO EXPECTED
BUILDING SEAS LATER THIS EVENING AND CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY.
WINDS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...WAVES REMAIN HIGH ON SATURDAY BEFORE DROPPING BY
SUNDAY MORNING. SEAS AND WINDS INCREASE BRIEFLY MONDAY MORNING TO
SCA CRITERIA AHEAD OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WARMER WEATHER AND ONE HALF TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF RAIN
WILL INDUCE SOME RUNOFF THIS EVENING. WE WILL LIKELY SEE SOME
RISES ON SOUTHERN RIVERS. AT THE CURRENT TIME WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY
BIG ISSUES. PERHAPS SOME MINOR POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING THIS
EVENING. HOWEVER...WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR ICE MOVEMENT ON
RIVERS AND STREAMS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KGYX 270139
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
939 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS EVENING.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE REGION FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS QUEBEC ON
MONDAY AND WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION MONDAY NIGHT.
QUICK MOVING LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
UPDATE...
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER
AIR INTO THE REGION DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS WIND SHIFT
CONTINUES TO ALLOW FOR THE AREAS OF DENSE FOG TO LIFT.
CURRENTLY...ONLY SPOTTY REPORTS OF VSBYS A 1/4 MILE OR LESS...SO
WILL BE DROPPING THE DENSE FOG ADVISORIES THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.

ONLY TWEAKS AND MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE REMAINDER OF THE GRIDDED
DATABASE.

PREV UPDATE...
DENSE FOG HAS BECOME WIDESPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN MAINE AND
SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE. HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11
PM. NORTHERLY WINDS SHOULD ADVECT SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR INTO THE
REGION AND MIX OUT SOME OF THE FOG AT THAT TIME.

AREAS OF RAIN AND RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE RAPIDLY TO THE
NORTHEAST IN A STRONG GRADIENT FLOW ALOFT. THE CHANGEOVER TO SNOW
WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. SNOW WILL MIX IN OVER CENTRAL AREAS AS WELL BY
AROUND 08Z...BUT THIS IS MAINLY AN ELEVATION BASED SNOW EVENT.

PREV DISC...A POSITIVE TILTED AND PROGRESSIVE LONG WAVE TROUGH
WILL MOVE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. AHEAD OF IT WARM AIR AT ALL
LEVELS SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON. A WEAK WAVE
WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH AND MOVE ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. TO THE NORTH OF THIS WAVE OVERUNNING
RAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION WITH SNOW OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. QPF AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM .50-.75 INCHES WHICH
SHOULD NOT POSE ANY FLOODING PROBLEMS. OVERNIGHT COLD AIR
ADVECTION GRADUALLY SPREADS SOUTH ALLOWING THE RAIN TO CHANGE TO
SNOW IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS WITH
SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED BY MORNING. OVER SOUTHERN AREAS
THE PRECIPITATION WILL PROBABLY END BEFORE ENOUGH COLD AIR SPREADS
SOUTH TO CAUSE ANY CHANGEOVER. USED A BLEND OF THE MODELS FOR QPF
AND OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY
PROGRESSES EAST BUT WILL HAVE PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER LINGERING
ACROSS THE AREA. SOME PARTIAL CLEARING MAY OCCUR OVER NORTHERN
AREAS WHILE SOUTHERN AREAS REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE NEAR SEASONAL ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS A BLEND OF THE
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEPENING LOW
PRESSURE WAVE ALONG THE OFFSHORE FRONT WILL REMAIN IN THE GULF
OF MAINE ON SATURDAY... HOWEVER COASTAL SECTIONS OF NH AND MAINE
WILL HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY. SKIES WILL
BE CLOUDY CONTRIBUTING TO A SMALL DIURNAL RISE INTO THE MID 30S
OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN. FARTHER NORTH MID TO UPPER 20S FOR HIGHS
IS MORE LIKELY.

SKIES BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT NORTH TO SOUTH OVERNIGHT AND COLDER AIR
FILTERS IN MAKING FOR A CHILLY NIGHT. SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE
COVERING MOST OF THE NATION MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES
BRINGING A NORTHERLY AND THEN EVENTUALLY WESTERLY WIND GRADIENT
TO NEW ENGLAND. SURFACE TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE AREA RESPOND
TO THIS DOWNSLOPING COMPONENT AS WELL AS SYNOPTIC SCALE WARMING
RESULT IN A WARMING TREND SUNDAY.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ARRIVES MONDAY AS WARM AIR
ADVECTION RAMPS UP AHEAD OF A DEEPENING SURFACE CYCLONE WELL TO
OUR NORTH. THE LITTLE BIT OF COLD AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
SHOULD MOSTLY DAM NORTH OF THE MOUNTAINS AND MODERATE WITHIN 12-18
HOURS. OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE READINGS
REACH THE 40S IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE OCCASIONAL 50 DEGREE
READING TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A WEAK WAVE TRANSPORTS QUICK MOVING
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE
MOVING IT OUT TO SEA. THIS WILL BRING CHANCE PRECIPITATION TO THE
REGION... AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE IT WOULD BRING MIXED PTYPE.
LASTLY MODELS FOLLOW THIS WITH A STRONGER SYSTEM FOR EASTER
WEEKEND WHICH MAY CAUSE HAVE TRAVEL IMPLICATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT IN RAIN...WITH SNOW AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS NORTHERN
NH AND THE WESTERN ME MOUNTAINS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY
RETURN ON FRIDAY AND CONTINUE FRIDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...SCATTERED MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN MOUNTAIN AND
COASTAL SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY. SCATTERED MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
MONDAY IN RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...
A SCA WILL BE REQUIRED OVER THE OUTER WATERS DUE TO EXPECTED
BUILDING SEAS LATER THIS EVENING AND CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY.
WINDS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...WAVES REMAIN HIGH ON SATURDAY BEFORE DROPPING BY
SUNDAY MORNING. SEAS AND WINDS INCREASE BRIEFLY MONDAY MORNING TO
SCA CRITERIA AHEAD OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WARMER WEATHER AND ONE HALF TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF RAIN
WILL INDUCE SOME RUNOFF THIS EVENING. WE WILL LIKELY SEE SOME
RISES ON SOUTHERN RIVERS. AT THE CURRENT TIME WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY
BIG ISSUES. PERHAPS SOME MINOR POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING THIS
EVENING. HOWEVER...WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR ICE MOVEMENT ON
RIVERS AND STREAMS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KGYX 262255
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
655 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS EVENING.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE REGION FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS QUEBEC ON
MONDAY AND WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION MONDAY NIGHT.
QUICK MOVING LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
UPDATE...
DENSE FOG HAS BECOME WIDESPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN MAINE AND
SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE. HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11
PM. NORTHERLY WINDS SHOULD ADVECT SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR INTO THE
REGION AND MIX OUT SOME OF THE FOG AT THAT TIME.

AREAS OF RAIN AND RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE RAPIDLY TO THE
NORTHEAST IN A STRONG GRADIENT FLOW ALOFT. THE CHANGEOVER TO SNOW
WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. SNOW WILL MIX IN OVER CENTRAL AREAS AS WELL BY
AROUND 08Z...BUT THIS IS MAINLY AN ELEVATION BASED SNOW EVENT.

PREV DISC...A POSITIVE TILTED AND PROGRESSIVE LONG WAVE TROUGH
WILL MOVE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. AHEAD OF IT WARM AIR AT ALL
LEVELS SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON. A WEAK WAVE
WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH AND MOVE ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. TO THE NORTH OF THIS WAVE OVERUNNING
RAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION WITH SNOW OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. QPF AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM .50-.75 INCHES WHICH
SHOULD NOT POSE ANY FLOODING PROBLEMS. OVERNIGHT COLD AIR
ADVECTION GRADUALLY SPREADS SOUTH ALLOWING THE RAIN TO CHANGE TO
SNOW IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS WITH
SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED BY MORNING. OVER SOUTHERN AREAS
THE PRECIPITATION WILL PROBABLY END BEFORE ENOUGH COLD AIR SPREADS
SOUTH TO CAUSE ANY CHANGEOVER. USED A BLEND OF THE MODELS FOR QPF
AND OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY
PROGRESSES EAST BUT WILL HAVE PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER LINGERING
ACROSS THE AREA. SOME PARTIAL CLEARING MAY OCCUR OVER NORTHERN
AREAS WHILE SOUTHERN AREAS REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE NEAR SEASONAL ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS A BLEND OF THE
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEPENING LOW
PRESSURE WAVE ALONG THE OFFSHORE FRONT WILL REMAIN IN THE GULF
OF MAINE ON SATURDAY... HOWEVER COASTAL SECTIONS OF NH AND MAINE
WILL HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY. SKIES WILL
BE CLOUDY CONTRIBUTING TO A SMALL DIURNAL RISE INTO THE MID 30S
OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN. FARTHER NORTH MID TO UPPER 20S FOR HIGHS
IS MORE LIKELY.

SKIES BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT NORTH TO SOUTH OVERNIGHT AND COLDER AIR
FILTERS IN MAKING FOR A CHILLY NIGHT. SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE
COVERING MOST OF THE NATION MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES
BRINGING A NORTHERLY AND THEN EVENTUALLY WESTERLY WIND GRADIENT
TO NEW ENGLAND. SURFACE TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE AREA RESPOND
TO THIS DOWNSLOPING COMPONENT AS WELL AS SYNOPTIC SCALE WARMING
RESULT IN A WARMING TREND SUNDAY.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ARRIVES MONDAY AS WARM AIR
ADVECTION RAMPS UP AHEAD OF A DEEPENING SURFACE CYCLONE WELL TO
OUR NORTH. THE LITTLE BIT OF COLD AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
SHOULD MOSTLY DAM NORTH OF THE MOUNTAINS AND MODERATE WITHIN 12-18
HOURS. OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE READINGS
REACH THE 40S IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE OCCASIONAL 50 DEGREE
READING TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A WEAK WAVE TRANSPORTS QUICK MOVING
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE
MOVING IT OUT TO SEA. THIS WILL BRING CHANCE PRECIPITATION TO THE
REGION... AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE IT WOULD BRING MIXED PTYPE.
LASTLY MODELS FOLLOW THIS WITH A STRONGER SYSTEM FOR EASTER
WEEKEND WHICH MAY CAUSE HAVE TRAVEL IMPLICATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT IN RAIN...WITH SNOW AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS NORTHERN
NH AND THE WESTERN ME MOUNTAINS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY
RETURN ON FRIDAY AND CONTINUE FRIDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...SCATTERED MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN MOUNTAIN AND
COASTAL SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY. SCATTERED MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
MONDAY IN RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...
A SCA WILL BE REQUIRED OVER THE OUTER WATERS DUE TO EXPECTED
BUILDING SEAS LATER THIS EVENING AND CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY.
WINDS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...WAVES REMAIN HIGH ON SATURDAY BEFORE DROPPING BY
SUNDAY MORNING. SEAS AND WINDS INCREASE BRIEFLY MONDAY MORNING TO
SCA CRITERIA AHEAD OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WARMER WEATHER AND ONE HALF TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF RAIN
WILL INDUCE SOME RUNOFF THIS EVENING. WE WILL LIKELY SEE SOME
RISES ON SOUTHERN RIVERS. AT THE CURRENT TIME WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY
BIG ISSUES. PERHAPS SOME MINOR POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING THIS
EVENING. HOWEVER...WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR ICE MOVEMENT ON
RIVERS AND STREAMS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MEZ018>028.
NH...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NHZ005-
     007>015.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 11 PM THIS
     EVENING TO 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KGYX 262255
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
655 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS EVENING.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE REGION FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS QUEBEC ON
MONDAY AND WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION MONDAY NIGHT.
QUICK MOVING LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
UPDATE...
DENSE FOG HAS BECOME WIDESPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN MAINE AND
SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE. HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11
PM. NORTHERLY WINDS SHOULD ADVECT SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR INTO THE
REGION AND MIX OUT SOME OF THE FOG AT THAT TIME.

AREAS OF RAIN AND RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE RAPIDLY TO THE
NORTHEAST IN A STRONG GRADIENT FLOW ALOFT. THE CHANGEOVER TO SNOW
WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. SNOW WILL MIX IN OVER CENTRAL AREAS AS WELL BY
AROUND 08Z...BUT THIS IS MAINLY AN ELEVATION BASED SNOW EVENT.

PREV DISC...A POSITIVE TILTED AND PROGRESSIVE LONG WAVE TROUGH
WILL MOVE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. AHEAD OF IT WARM AIR AT ALL
LEVELS SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON. A WEAK WAVE
WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH AND MOVE ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. TO THE NORTH OF THIS WAVE OVERUNNING
RAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION WITH SNOW OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. QPF AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM .50-.75 INCHES WHICH
SHOULD NOT POSE ANY FLOODING PROBLEMS. OVERNIGHT COLD AIR
ADVECTION GRADUALLY SPREADS SOUTH ALLOWING THE RAIN TO CHANGE TO
SNOW IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS WITH
SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED BY MORNING. OVER SOUTHERN AREAS
THE PRECIPITATION WILL PROBABLY END BEFORE ENOUGH COLD AIR SPREADS
SOUTH TO CAUSE ANY CHANGEOVER. USED A BLEND OF THE MODELS FOR QPF
AND OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY
PROGRESSES EAST BUT WILL HAVE PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER LINGERING
ACROSS THE AREA. SOME PARTIAL CLEARING MAY OCCUR OVER NORTHERN
AREAS WHILE SOUTHERN AREAS REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE NEAR SEASONAL ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS A BLEND OF THE
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEPENING LOW
PRESSURE WAVE ALONG THE OFFSHORE FRONT WILL REMAIN IN THE GULF
OF MAINE ON SATURDAY... HOWEVER COASTAL SECTIONS OF NH AND MAINE
WILL HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY. SKIES WILL
BE CLOUDY CONTRIBUTING TO A SMALL DIURNAL RISE INTO THE MID 30S
OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN. FARTHER NORTH MID TO UPPER 20S FOR HIGHS
IS MORE LIKELY.

SKIES BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT NORTH TO SOUTH OVERNIGHT AND COLDER AIR
FILTERS IN MAKING FOR A CHILLY NIGHT. SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE
COVERING MOST OF THE NATION MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES
BRINGING A NORTHERLY AND THEN EVENTUALLY WESTERLY WIND GRADIENT
TO NEW ENGLAND. SURFACE TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE AREA RESPOND
TO THIS DOWNSLOPING COMPONENT AS WELL AS SYNOPTIC SCALE WARMING
RESULT IN A WARMING TREND SUNDAY.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ARRIVES MONDAY AS WARM AIR
ADVECTION RAMPS UP AHEAD OF A DEEPENING SURFACE CYCLONE WELL TO
OUR NORTH. THE LITTLE BIT OF COLD AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
SHOULD MOSTLY DAM NORTH OF THE MOUNTAINS AND MODERATE WITHIN 12-18
HOURS. OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE READINGS
REACH THE 40S IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE OCCASIONAL 50 DEGREE
READING TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A WEAK WAVE TRANSPORTS QUICK MOVING
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE
MOVING IT OUT TO SEA. THIS WILL BRING CHANCE PRECIPITATION TO THE
REGION... AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE IT WOULD BRING MIXED PTYPE.
LASTLY MODELS FOLLOW THIS WITH A STRONGER SYSTEM FOR EASTER
WEEKEND WHICH MAY CAUSE HAVE TRAVEL IMPLICATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT IN RAIN...WITH SNOW AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS NORTHERN
NH AND THE WESTERN ME MOUNTAINS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY
RETURN ON FRIDAY AND CONTINUE FRIDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...SCATTERED MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN MOUNTAIN AND
COASTAL SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY. SCATTERED MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
MONDAY IN RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...
A SCA WILL BE REQUIRED OVER THE OUTER WATERS DUE TO EXPECTED
BUILDING SEAS LATER THIS EVENING AND CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY.
WINDS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...WAVES REMAIN HIGH ON SATURDAY BEFORE DROPPING BY
SUNDAY MORNING. SEAS AND WINDS INCREASE BRIEFLY MONDAY MORNING TO
SCA CRITERIA AHEAD OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WARMER WEATHER AND ONE HALF TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF RAIN
WILL INDUCE SOME RUNOFF THIS EVENING. WE WILL LIKELY SEE SOME
RISES ON SOUTHERN RIVERS. AT THE CURRENT TIME WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY
BIG ISSUES. PERHAPS SOME MINOR POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING THIS
EVENING. HOWEVER...WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR ICE MOVEMENT ON
RIVERS AND STREAMS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MEZ018>028.
NH...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NHZ005-
     007>015.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 11 PM THIS
     EVENING TO 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KCAR 262236
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
636 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK SECONDARY LOW WILL TRACK THROUGH THE GULF OF MAINE
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
615 PM UPDATE: 22Z SFC ANALYSIS HAD LOW PRES MOVING NE INTO THE
GULF OF MAINE W/THE STEADIEST PRECIP SHIELD FROM HOULTON-MILLINOCKET
ON SOUTH TO THE COAST. ADJUSTED THE 70-80% POPS A BIT FURTHER S
TO COVER TEH AFOREMENTIONED AREAS. PER THE LATEST RADAR LOOP, THE
ST. JOHN VALLEY AND WNW AREAS COULD STAY DRY. ATTM, DECIDED TO
LOWER THE POPS BACK TO SLIGHT CHANCE(20%). TEMPERATURES NEEDED
ADJUSTMENTS UPWARD AS THEY ARE NOT FALLING BACK AS QUICKLY AS
PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED ESPECIALLY TO THE E AND S. BACK ACROSS THE
W AND NW, READINGS ARE DOWN INTO THE MID/UPPER 30S.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
MODELS HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE FURTHER SWRD WITH
THE QPF ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK WV OF SFC LOW PRES MOVG E FROM
CNTRL NEW ACROSS THE GULF OF ME. WHAT THIS IMPLIES IS THE DYNAMICS
DO NOT LAST VERY LONG THIS EVE ACROSS PTNS OF THE FA THAT WOULD
BECOME COOL ENOUGH FOR SN EARLIEST DUE EVAPORATIVE AND DYNAMIC
COOLING...NAMELY THE CNTRL ME HIGHLANDS AND THE HIGH TERRAIN IN
AND ARND BAXTER ST PARK. THIS RESULTED IN US LOWERING SNFL ACROSS
THIS PTN OF THE FA IN PARTICULAR. ANOTHER REASON IS THAT TEMPS OVR
THIS AREA THIS AFTN WERE ABOUT 5 DEG WARMER THAN PREVIOUSLY
THOUGHT...SO BL TEMPS WILL TAKE A COUPLE OF MORE HRS LONGER TO
COOL TO SUPPORT ALL SN. ACROSS THE N...IT IS NOW UNCERTAIN WHETHER
STEADY PRECIP WILL REACH EXTREME NRN PTNS OF THE FA...SO POPS WERE
LOWERED TO CHC OR LIKELY CATEGORY...WITH NOT ENOUGH QPF FOR RN TO
CHG TO ANY SN OF SIGNIFICANCE BEFORE PRECIP ENDS LATE TNGT.
DOWNEAST AREAS MAY SEE RN CHG TO SN LATE TNGT BEFORE PRECIP THERE
ENDS ARND DAYBREAK. THE GREATEST QPF OF ARND A HALF INCH WILL BE
OVR DOWNEAST PTNS OF THE FA.

OTHERWISE...SFC HI PRES FROM CNTRL CAN WILL PUSH CLDS AND PRECIP
NOT MUCH FURTHER S THAN THE GULF OF ME FRI INTO FRI NGT AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROF HANGS BACK OVR THE GREAT LKS AND N CNTRL APLCHNS.
COLDER SEMI-ARCTIC AIR WILL SLOWLY FILTER INTO THE FA FROM QB
BEGINNING VERY LATE TNGT AND CONTG THRU FRI NGT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT. A
LOW TRACKING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MAINE...WITH THE REMNANTS
OF AN OCCLUDED FRONT WRAPPED ACROSS CENTRAL MAINE. HIGHER PRESSURE
BUILDING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION. BY SUN
EVNG...THE LOW WILL TRACK EAST SOUTH OF ERN NOVA SCOTIA WITH
REMNANTS OF THE OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDED ALONG THE COAST OF
MAINE...HIGHER PRESSURE BUILDS INTO NW MAINE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH EARLY MON MRNG.

LOADED A BLEND OF THE NAM/GEM/GFS/ECMWF FOR HRLY
T/DP/WNDS/SKY/POP GRIDS...LOADED A BLEND OF GFS/ECMWF FOR QPF.
ADDED 15 PERCENT TO WNDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND...35 PERCENT OVER
COASTAL WATERS. ADDED NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MODELS CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AT THE START OF THE LONG
TERM. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD. A NEW LOW MOVING EAST ALONG THE NRN PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL
GREAT LAKES...WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SOUTH THROUGH ERN NY.
MON MRNG THE BY MON MRNG THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO WRN MAINE.
MON EVNG THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO WRN MAINE....AND BY TUE AFTERNOON
A RIDGE OF HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD ACROSS...BEFORE A
NEW LOW MOVES INTO CAPE COD REGION...WITH ITS ASSOCIATED FRONT
INTO SRN MAINE BY EARLY WED MRNG. WED MRNG THE GFS AND ECMWF
DIFFER A BIT ON POSITION AND MOVE MVMNT OF THE SYSTEM. THE GFS
MOVES THE LOW EAST ACROSS THE SRN GULF OF MAINE...WITH OCCLUDED
FRONT WRAPPED AROUND INTO CNTRL MAINE. THE ECMWF MOVES TO LOW OVER
CAPE COD WRAPPING THE OCCLUDED FRONT INTO SW MAINE. WED EVNG THE
GFS MOVES THE LOW SE OF NOVA SCOTIA... THE ECMWF MOVES THE LOW
SOUTH OF SW NOVA SCOTIA WITH THE OCCLUSION WRAPPED INTO THE BAY OF
FUNDY. HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS FOR WED NGT AND THURS.
THURS NGT TWO LOWS ONE MOVING NORTH ALONG THE COAST...THE OTHER
MOVING EAST ACROSS THE NRN GREAT LAKES...WILL MOVE INTO MAINE BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD.

LOADED THE SUPERBLEND THROUGH THE PERIOD. ADDED 15 PERCENT TO
WNDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND 35 PERCENT OVER COASTAL WATERS. LOADED
NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MOST TAF SITES CURRENTLY VFR...BUT SHOULD LOWER TO IFR
BY EVE AS RN AND RN CHGNG TO SN MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. NRN MOST
TAF SITES MAY ONLY LOWER TO MVFR OR LOW VFR DUE TO VERY LGT
PRECIP. OTHERWISE AFT THE PRECIP MOVES ESE OF THE FA...ALL TAF
SITES SHOULD RECOVER BACK TO VFR FRI MORN AND CONT SO THRU FRI
NGT.

SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS SAT AND SUN INCREASING CLOUDS BCMG
MVFR IN SCT SNOW SHOWERS ON MON.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: CURRENTLY WVS JUST BLO SCA THRESHOLDS...HOWEVER...WW3
WV GUIDANCE INDICATES SWELLS FROM LOW PRES OVR THE OPEN ATLC MOVG
INTO OUR OUTER MZS AFT MDNGT TNGT AND CONTG THRU FRI...SO WE
ISSUED AN SCA FOR HAZ SEAS FOR THESE MZS. AFTWRDS...WIND GUSTS MAY
REACH OR EXCEED 25 KTS FRI NGT...SO WE MAY NEED TO TRANSITION TO
A GENERIC SCA BY TOMORROW`S AFTN FCST UPDATE. WE WENT CLOSE TO WW3
WV HT GUIDANCE FOR FCST WV HTS THRU THE NEAR TERM THIS UPDATE.

SHORT TERM: AN SCA MAY BE REQUIRED AT THE START OF THE PERIOD AS
A LOW TRACK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE GULF OF MAINE.
WNDS AND SEAS WILL SUBSIDE QUICKLY AS HIGHER PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE REGION AND WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
     TO 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HEWITT/VJN
SHORT TERM...NORTON
LONG TERM...NORTON
AVIATION...HEWITT/VJN/NORTON
MARINE...HEWITT/VJN/NORTON



000
FXUS61 KCAR 262236
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
636 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK SECONDARY LOW WILL TRACK THROUGH THE GULF OF MAINE
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
615 PM UPDATE: 22Z SFC ANALYSIS HAD LOW PRES MOVING NE INTO THE
GULF OF MAINE W/THE STEADIEST PRECIP SHIELD FROM HOULTON-MILLINOCKET
ON SOUTH TO THE COAST. ADJUSTED THE 70-80% POPS A BIT FURTHER S
TO COVER TEH AFOREMENTIONED AREAS. PER THE LATEST RADAR LOOP, THE
ST. JOHN VALLEY AND WNW AREAS COULD STAY DRY. ATTM, DECIDED TO
LOWER THE POPS BACK TO SLIGHT CHANCE(20%). TEMPERATURES NEEDED
ADJUSTMENTS UPWARD AS THEY ARE NOT FALLING BACK AS QUICKLY AS
PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED ESPECIALLY TO THE E AND S. BACK ACROSS THE
W AND NW, READINGS ARE DOWN INTO THE MID/UPPER 30S.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
MODELS HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE FURTHER SWRD WITH
THE QPF ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK WV OF SFC LOW PRES MOVG E FROM
CNTRL NEW ACROSS THE GULF OF ME. WHAT THIS IMPLIES IS THE DYNAMICS
DO NOT LAST VERY LONG THIS EVE ACROSS PTNS OF THE FA THAT WOULD
BECOME COOL ENOUGH FOR SN EARLIEST DUE EVAPORATIVE AND DYNAMIC
COOLING...NAMELY THE CNTRL ME HIGHLANDS AND THE HIGH TERRAIN IN
AND ARND BAXTER ST PARK. THIS RESULTED IN US LOWERING SNFL ACROSS
THIS PTN OF THE FA IN PARTICULAR. ANOTHER REASON IS THAT TEMPS OVR
THIS AREA THIS AFTN WERE ABOUT 5 DEG WARMER THAN PREVIOUSLY
THOUGHT...SO BL TEMPS WILL TAKE A COUPLE OF MORE HRS LONGER TO
COOL TO SUPPORT ALL SN. ACROSS THE N...IT IS NOW UNCERTAIN WHETHER
STEADY PRECIP WILL REACH EXTREME NRN PTNS OF THE FA...SO POPS WERE
LOWERED TO CHC OR LIKELY CATEGORY...WITH NOT ENOUGH QPF FOR RN TO
CHG TO ANY SN OF SIGNIFICANCE BEFORE PRECIP ENDS LATE TNGT.
DOWNEAST AREAS MAY SEE RN CHG TO SN LATE TNGT BEFORE PRECIP THERE
ENDS ARND DAYBREAK. THE GREATEST QPF OF ARND A HALF INCH WILL BE
OVR DOWNEAST PTNS OF THE FA.

OTHERWISE...SFC HI PRES FROM CNTRL CAN WILL PUSH CLDS AND PRECIP
NOT MUCH FURTHER S THAN THE GULF OF ME FRI INTO FRI NGT AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROF HANGS BACK OVR THE GREAT LKS AND N CNTRL APLCHNS.
COLDER SEMI-ARCTIC AIR WILL SLOWLY FILTER INTO THE FA FROM QB
BEGINNING VERY LATE TNGT AND CONTG THRU FRI NGT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT. A
LOW TRACKING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MAINE...WITH THE REMNANTS
OF AN OCCLUDED FRONT WRAPPED ACROSS CENTRAL MAINE. HIGHER PRESSURE
BUILDING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION. BY SUN
EVNG...THE LOW WILL TRACK EAST SOUTH OF ERN NOVA SCOTIA WITH
REMNANTS OF THE OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDED ALONG THE COAST OF
MAINE...HIGHER PRESSURE BUILDS INTO NW MAINE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH EARLY MON MRNG.

LOADED A BLEND OF THE NAM/GEM/GFS/ECMWF FOR HRLY
T/DP/WNDS/SKY/POP GRIDS...LOADED A BLEND OF GFS/ECMWF FOR QPF.
ADDED 15 PERCENT TO WNDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND...35 PERCENT OVER
COASTAL WATERS. ADDED NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MODELS CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AT THE START OF THE LONG
TERM. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD. A NEW LOW MOVING EAST ALONG THE NRN PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL
GREAT LAKES...WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SOUTH THROUGH ERN NY.
MON MRNG THE BY MON MRNG THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO WRN MAINE.
MON EVNG THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO WRN MAINE....AND BY TUE AFTERNOON
A RIDGE OF HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD ACROSS...BEFORE A
NEW LOW MOVES INTO CAPE COD REGION...WITH ITS ASSOCIATED FRONT
INTO SRN MAINE BY EARLY WED MRNG. WED MRNG THE GFS AND ECMWF
DIFFER A BIT ON POSITION AND MOVE MVMNT OF THE SYSTEM. THE GFS
MOVES THE LOW EAST ACROSS THE SRN GULF OF MAINE...WITH OCCLUDED
FRONT WRAPPED AROUND INTO CNTRL MAINE. THE ECMWF MOVES TO LOW OVER
CAPE COD WRAPPING THE OCCLUDED FRONT INTO SW MAINE. WED EVNG THE
GFS MOVES THE LOW SE OF NOVA SCOTIA... THE ECMWF MOVES THE LOW
SOUTH OF SW NOVA SCOTIA WITH THE OCCLUSION WRAPPED INTO THE BAY OF
FUNDY. HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS FOR WED NGT AND THURS.
THURS NGT TWO LOWS ONE MOVING NORTH ALONG THE COAST...THE OTHER
MOVING EAST ACROSS THE NRN GREAT LAKES...WILL MOVE INTO MAINE BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD.

LOADED THE SUPERBLEND THROUGH THE PERIOD. ADDED 15 PERCENT TO
WNDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND 35 PERCENT OVER COASTAL WATERS. LOADED
NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MOST TAF SITES CURRENTLY VFR...BUT SHOULD LOWER TO IFR
BY EVE AS RN AND RN CHGNG TO SN MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. NRN MOST
TAF SITES MAY ONLY LOWER TO MVFR OR LOW VFR DUE TO VERY LGT
PRECIP. OTHERWISE AFT THE PRECIP MOVES ESE OF THE FA...ALL TAF
SITES SHOULD RECOVER BACK TO VFR FRI MORN AND CONT SO THRU FRI
NGT.

SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS SAT AND SUN INCREASING CLOUDS BCMG
MVFR IN SCT SNOW SHOWERS ON MON.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: CURRENTLY WVS JUST BLO SCA THRESHOLDS...HOWEVER...WW3
WV GUIDANCE INDICATES SWELLS FROM LOW PRES OVR THE OPEN ATLC MOVG
INTO OUR OUTER MZS AFT MDNGT TNGT AND CONTG THRU FRI...SO WE
ISSUED AN SCA FOR HAZ SEAS FOR THESE MZS. AFTWRDS...WIND GUSTS MAY
REACH OR EXCEED 25 KTS FRI NGT...SO WE MAY NEED TO TRANSITION TO
A GENERIC SCA BY TOMORROW`S AFTN FCST UPDATE. WE WENT CLOSE TO WW3
WV HT GUIDANCE FOR FCST WV HTS THRU THE NEAR TERM THIS UPDATE.

SHORT TERM: AN SCA MAY BE REQUIRED AT THE START OF THE PERIOD AS
A LOW TRACK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE GULF OF MAINE.
WNDS AND SEAS WILL SUBSIDE QUICKLY AS HIGHER PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE REGION AND WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
     TO 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HEWITT/VJN
SHORT TERM...NORTON
LONG TERM...NORTON
AVIATION...HEWITT/VJN/NORTON
MARINE...HEWITT/VJN/NORTON




000
FXUS61 KGYX 262116 RRA
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...DELAYED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
516 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS EVENING.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE REGION FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS QUEBEC ON
MONDAY AND WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION MONDAY NIGHT.
QUICK MOVING LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS WESTERN
MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE. AREAS OF RAIN AND RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE
TO MOVE RAPIDLY TO THE NORTHEAST IN A STRONG GRADIENT FLOW ALOFT.
THE CHANGEOVER TO SNOW WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. SNOW WILL MIX IN OVER
CENTRAL AREAS AS WELL BY AROUND 08Z...BUT THIS IS MAINLY AN
ELEVATION BASED SNOW EVENT.

PREV DISC...A POSITIVE TILTED AND PROGRESSIVE LONG WAVE TROUGH
WILL MOVE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. AHEAD OF IT WARM AIR AT ALL
LEVELS SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON. A WEAK WAVE
WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH AND MOVE ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. TO THE NORTH OF THIS WAVE OVERUNNING
RAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION WITH SNOW OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. QPF AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM .50-.75 INCHES WHICH
SHOULD NOT POSE ANY FLOODING PROBLEMS. OVERNIGHT COLD AIR
ADVECTION GRADUALLY SPREADS SOUTH ALLOWING THE RAIN TO CHANGE TO
SNOW IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS WITH
SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED BY MORNING. OVER SOUTHERN AREAS
THE PRECIPITATION WILL PROBABLY END BEFORE ENOUGH COLD AIR SPREADS
SOUTH TO CAUSE ANY CHANGEOVER. USED A BLEND OF THE MODELS FOR QPF
AND OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY
PROGRESSES EAST BUT WILL HAVE PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER LINGERING
ACROSS THE AREA. SOME PARTIAL CLEARING MAY OCCUR OVER NORTHERN
AREAS WHILE SOUTHERN AREAS REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE NEAR SEASONAL ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS A BLEND OF THE
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEPENING LOW
PRESSURE WAVE ALONG THE OFFSHORE FRONT WILL REMAIN IN THE GULF
OF MAINE ON SATURDAY... HOWEVER COASTAL SECTIONS OF NH AND MAINE
WILL HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY. SKIES WILL
BE CLOUDY CONTRIBUTING TO A SMALL DIURNAL RISE INTO THE MID 30S
OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN. FARTHER NORTH MID TO UPPER 20S FOR HIGHS
IS MORE LIKELY.

SKIES BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT NORTH TO SOUTH OVERNIGHT AND COLDER AIR
FILTERS IN MAKING FOR A CHILLY NIGHT. SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE
COVERING MOST OF THE NATION MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES
BRINGING A NORTHERLY AND THEN EVENTUALLY WESTERLY WIND GRADIENT
TO NEW ENGLAND. SURFACE TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE AREA RESPOND
TO THIS DOWNSLOPING COMPONENT AS WELL AS SYNOPTIC SCALE WARMING
RESULT IN A WARMING TREND SUNDAY.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ARRIVES MONDAY AS WARM AIR
ADVECTION RAMPS UP AHEAD OF A DEEPENING SURFACE CYCLONE WELL TO
OUR NORTH. THE LITTLE BIT OF COLD AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
SHOULD MOSTLY DAM NORTH OF THE MOUNTAINS AND MODERATE WITHIN 12-18
HOURS. OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE READINGS
REACH THE 40S IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE OCCASIONAL 50 DEGREE
READING TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A WEAK WAVE TRANSPORTS QUICK MOVING
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE
MOVING IT OUT TO SEA. THIS WILL BRING CHANCE PRECIPITATION TO THE
REGION... AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE IT WOULD BRING MIXED PTYPE.
LASTLY MODELS FOLLOW THIS WITH A STRONGER SYSTEM FOR EASTER
WEEKEND WHICH MAY CAUSE HAVE TRAVEL IMPLICATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT IN RAIN...WITH SNOW AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS NORTHERN
NH AND THE WESTERN ME MOUNTAINS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY
RETURN ON FRIDAY AND CONTINUE FRIDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...SCATTERED MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN MOUNTAIN AND
COASTAL SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY. SCATTERED MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
MONDAY IN RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...
A SCA WILL BE REQUIRED OVER THE OUTER WATERS DUE TO EXPECTED
BUILDING SEAS LATER THIS EVENING AND CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY.
WINDS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...WAVES REMAIN HIGH ON SATURDAY BEFORE DROPPING BY
SUNDAY MORNING. SEAS AND WINDS INCREASE BRIEFLY MONDAY MORNING TO
SCA CRITERIA AHEAD OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WARMER WEATHER AND ONE HALF TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF RAIN
WILL INDUCE SOME RUNOFF THIS EVENING. WE WILL LIKELY SEE SOME
RISES ON SOUTHERN RIVERS. AT THE CURRENT TIME WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY
BIG ISSUES. PERHAPS SOME MINOR POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING THIS
EVENING. HOWEVER...WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR ICE MOVEMENT ON
RIVERS AND STREAMS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 11 PM THIS
     EVENING TO 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KGYX 262116 RRA
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...DELAYED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
516 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS EVENING.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE REGION FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS QUEBEC ON
MONDAY AND WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION MONDAY NIGHT.
QUICK MOVING LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS WESTERN
MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE. AREAS OF RAIN AND RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE
TO MOVE RAPIDLY TO THE NORTHEAST IN A STRONG GRADIENT FLOW ALOFT.
THE CHANGEOVER TO SNOW WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. SNOW WILL MIX IN OVER
CENTRAL AREAS AS WELL BY AROUND 08Z...BUT THIS IS MAINLY AN
ELEVATION BASED SNOW EVENT.

PREV DISC...A POSITIVE TILTED AND PROGRESSIVE LONG WAVE TROUGH
WILL MOVE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. AHEAD OF IT WARM AIR AT ALL
LEVELS SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON. A WEAK WAVE
WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH AND MOVE ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. TO THE NORTH OF THIS WAVE OVERUNNING
RAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION WITH SNOW OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. QPF AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM .50-.75 INCHES WHICH
SHOULD NOT POSE ANY FLOODING PROBLEMS. OVERNIGHT COLD AIR
ADVECTION GRADUALLY SPREADS SOUTH ALLOWING THE RAIN TO CHANGE TO
SNOW IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS WITH
SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED BY MORNING. OVER SOUTHERN AREAS
THE PRECIPITATION WILL PROBABLY END BEFORE ENOUGH COLD AIR SPREADS
SOUTH TO CAUSE ANY CHANGEOVER. USED A BLEND OF THE MODELS FOR QPF
AND OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY
PROGRESSES EAST BUT WILL HAVE PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER LINGERING
ACROSS THE AREA. SOME PARTIAL CLEARING MAY OCCUR OVER NORTHERN
AREAS WHILE SOUTHERN AREAS REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE NEAR SEASONAL ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS A BLEND OF THE
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEPENING LOW
PRESSURE WAVE ALONG THE OFFSHORE FRONT WILL REMAIN IN THE GULF
OF MAINE ON SATURDAY... HOWEVER COASTAL SECTIONS OF NH AND MAINE
WILL HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY. SKIES WILL
BE CLOUDY CONTRIBUTING TO A SMALL DIURNAL RISE INTO THE MID 30S
OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN. FARTHER NORTH MID TO UPPER 20S FOR HIGHS
IS MORE LIKELY.

SKIES BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT NORTH TO SOUTH OVERNIGHT AND COLDER AIR
FILTERS IN MAKING FOR A CHILLY NIGHT. SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE
COVERING MOST OF THE NATION MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES
BRINGING A NORTHERLY AND THEN EVENTUALLY WESTERLY WIND GRADIENT
TO NEW ENGLAND. SURFACE TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE AREA RESPOND
TO THIS DOWNSLOPING COMPONENT AS WELL AS SYNOPTIC SCALE WARMING
RESULT IN A WARMING TREND SUNDAY.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ARRIVES MONDAY AS WARM AIR
ADVECTION RAMPS UP AHEAD OF A DEEPENING SURFACE CYCLONE WELL TO
OUR NORTH. THE LITTLE BIT OF COLD AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
SHOULD MOSTLY DAM NORTH OF THE MOUNTAINS AND MODERATE WITHIN 12-18
HOURS. OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE READINGS
REACH THE 40S IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE OCCASIONAL 50 DEGREE
READING TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A WEAK WAVE TRANSPORTS QUICK MOVING
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE
MOVING IT OUT TO SEA. THIS WILL BRING CHANCE PRECIPITATION TO THE
REGION... AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE IT WOULD BRING MIXED PTYPE.
LASTLY MODELS FOLLOW THIS WITH A STRONGER SYSTEM FOR EASTER
WEEKEND WHICH MAY CAUSE HAVE TRAVEL IMPLICATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT IN RAIN...WITH SNOW AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS NORTHERN
NH AND THE WESTERN ME MOUNTAINS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY
RETURN ON FRIDAY AND CONTINUE FRIDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...SCATTERED MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN MOUNTAIN AND
COASTAL SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY. SCATTERED MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
MONDAY IN RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...
A SCA WILL BE REQUIRED OVER THE OUTER WATERS DUE TO EXPECTED
BUILDING SEAS LATER THIS EVENING AND CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY.
WINDS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...WAVES REMAIN HIGH ON SATURDAY BEFORE DROPPING BY
SUNDAY MORNING. SEAS AND WINDS INCREASE BRIEFLY MONDAY MORNING TO
SCA CRITERIA AHEAD OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WARMER WEATHER AND ONE HALF TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF RAIN
WILL INDUCE SOME RUNOFF THIS EVENING. WE WILL LIKELY SEE SOME
RISES ON SOUTHERN RIVERS. AT THE CURRENT TIME WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY
BIG ISSUES. PERHAPS SOME MINOR POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING THIS
EVENING. HOWEVER...WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR ICE MOVEMENT ON
RIVERS AND STREAMS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 11 PM THIS
     EVENING TO 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KGYX 262116 RRA
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...DELAYED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
516 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS EVENING.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE REGION FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS QUEBEC ON
MONDAY AND WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION MONDAY NIGHT.
QUICK MOVING LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS WESTERN
MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE. AREAS OF RAIN AND RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE
TO MOVE RAPIDLY TO THE NORTHEAST IN A STRONG GRADIENT FLOW ALOFT.
THE CHANGEOVER TO SNOW WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. SNOW WILL MIX IN OVER
CENTRAL AREAS AS WELL BY AROUND 08Z...BUT THIS IS MAINLY AN
ELEVATION BASED SNOW EVENT.

PREV DISC...A POSITIVE TILTED AND PROGRESSIVE LONG WAVE TROUGH
WILL MOVE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. AHEAD OF IT WARM AIR AT ALL
LEVELS SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON. A WEAK WAVE
WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH AND MOVE ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. TO THE NORTH OF THIS WAVE OVERUNNING
RAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION WITH SNOW OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. QPF AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM .50-.75 INCHES WHICH
SHOULD NOT POSE ANY FLOODING PROBLEMS. OVERNIGHT COLD AIR
ADVECTION GRADUALLY SPREADS SOUTH ALLOWING THE RAIN TO CHANGE TO
SNOW IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS WITH
SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED BY MORNING. OVER SOUTHERN AREAS
THE PRECIPITATION WILL PROBABLY END BEFORE ENOUGH COLD AIR SPREADS
SOUTH TO CAUSE ANY CHANGEOVER. USED A BLEND OF THE MODELS FOR QPF
AND OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY
PROGRESSES EAST BUT WILL HAVE PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER LINGERING
ACROSS THE AREA. SOME PARTIAL CLEARING MAY OCCUR OVER NORTHERN
AREAS WHILE SOUTHERN AREAS REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE NEAR SEASONAL ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS A BLEND OF THE
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEPENING LOW
PRESSURE WAVE ALONG THE OFFSHORE FRONT WILL REMAIN IN THE GULF
OF MAINE ON SATURDAY... HOWEVER COASTAL SECTIONS OF NH AND MAINE
WILL HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY. SKIES WILL
BE CLOUDY CONTRIBUTING TO A SMALL DIURNAL RISE INTO THE MID 30S
OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN. FARTHER NORTH MID TO UPPER 20S FOR HIGHS
IS MORE LIKELY.

SKIES BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT NORTH TO SOUTH OVERNIGHT AND COLDER AIR
FILTERS IN MAKING FOR A CHILLY NIGHT. SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE
COVERING MOST OF THE NATION MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES
BRINGING A NORTHERLY AND THEN EVENTUALLY WESTERLY WIND GRADIENT
TO NEW ENGLAND. SURFACE TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE AREA RESPOND
TO THIS DOWNSLOPING COMPONENT AS WELL AS SYNOPTIC SCALE WARMING
RESULT IN A WARMING TREND SUNDAY.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ARRIVES MONDAY AS WARM AIR
ADVECTION RAMPS UP AHEAD OF A DEEPENING SURFACE CYCLONE WELL TO
OUR NORTH. THE LITTLE BIT OF COLD AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
SHOULD MOSTLY DAM NORTH OF THE MOUNTAINS AND MODERATE WITHIN 12-18
HOURS. OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE READINGS
REACH THE 40S IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE OCCASIONAL 50 DEGREE
READING TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A WEAK WAVE TRANSPORTS QUICK MOVING
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE
MOVING IT OUT TO SEA. THIS WILL BRING CHANCE PRECIPITATION TO THE
REGION... AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE IT WOULD BRING MIXED PTYPE.
LASTLY MODELS FOLLOW THIS WITH A STRONGER SYSTEM FOR EASTER
WEEKEND WHICH MAY CAUSE HAVE TRAVEL IMPLICATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT IN RAIN...WITH SNOW AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS NORTHERN
NH AND THE WESTERN ME MOUNTAINS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY
RETURN ON FRIDAY AND CONTINUE FRIDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...SCATTERED MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN MOUNTAIN AND
COASTAL SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY. SCATTERED MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
MONDAY IN RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...
A SCA WILL BE REQUIRED OVER THE OUTER WATERS DUE TO EXPECTED
BUILDING SEAS LATER THIS EVENING AND CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY.
WINDS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...WAVES REMAIN HIGH ON SATURDAY BEFORE DROPPING BY
SUNDAY MORNING. SEAS AND WINDS INCREASE BRIEFLY MONDAY MORNING TO
SCA CRITERIA AHEAD OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WARMER WEATHER AND ONE HALF TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF RAIN
WILL INDUCE SOME RUNOFF THIS EVENING. WE WILL LIKELY SEE SOME
RISES ON SOUTHERN RIVERS. AT THE CURRENT TIME WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY
BIG ISSUES. PERHAPS SOME MINOR POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING THIS
EVENING. HOWEVER...WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR ICE MOVEMENT ON
RIVERS AND STREAMS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 11 PM THIS
     EVENING TO 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KGYX 262116 RRA
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...DELAYED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
516 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS EVENING.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE REGION FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS QUEBEC ON
MONDAY AND WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION MONDAY NIGHT.
QUICK MOVING LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS WESTERN
MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE. AREAS OF RAIN AND RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE
TO MOVE RAPIDLY TO THE NORTHEAST IN A STRONG GRADIENT FLOW ALOFT.
THE CHANGEOVER TO SNOW WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. SNOW WILL MIX IN OVER
CENTRAL AREAS AS WELL BY AROUND 08Z...BUT THIS IS MAINLY AN
ELEVATION BASED SNOW EVENT.

PREV DISC...A POSITIVE TILTED AND PROGRESSIVE LONG WAVE TROUGH
WILL MOVE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. AHEAD OF IT WARM AIR AT ALL
LEVELS SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON. A WEAK WAVE
WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH AND MOVE ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. TO THE NORTH OF THIS WAVE OVERUNNING
RAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION WITH SNOW OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. QPF AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM .50-.75 INCHES WHICH
SHOULD NOT POSE ANY FLOODING PROBLEMS. OVERNIGHT COLD AIR
ADVECTION GRADUALLY SPREADS SOUTH ALLOWING THE RAIN TO CHANGE TO
SNOW IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS WITH
SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED BY MORNING. OVER SOUTHERN AREAS
THE PRECIPITATION WILL PROBABLY END BEFORE ENOUGH COLD AIR SPREADS
SOUTH TO CAUSE ANY CHANGEOVER. USED A BLEND OF THE MODELS FOR QPF
AND OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY
PROGRESSES EAST BUT WILL HAVE PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER LINGERING
ACROSS THE AREA. SOME PARTIAL CLEARING MAY OCCUR OVER NORTHERN
AREAS WHILE SOUTHERN AREAS REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE NEAR SEASONAL ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS A BLEND OF THE
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEPENING LOW
PRESSURE WAVE ALONG THE OFFSHORE FRONT WILL REMAIN IN THE GULF
OF MAINE ON SATURDAY... HOWEVER COASTAL SECTIONS OF NH AND MAINE
WILL HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY. SKIES WILL
BE CLOUDY CONTRIBUTING TO A SMALL DIURNAL RISE INTO THE MID 30S
OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN. FARTHER NORTH MID TO UPPER 20S FOR HIGHS
IS MORE LIKELY.

SKIES BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT NORTH TO SOUTH OVERNIGHT AND COLDER AIR
FILTERS IN MAKING FOR A CHILLY NIGHT. SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE
COVERING MOST OF THE NATION MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES
BRINGING A NORTHERLY AND THEN EVENTUALLY WESTERLY WIND GRADIENT
TO NEW ENGLAND. SURFACE TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE AREA RESPOND
TO THIS DOWNSLOPING COMPONENT AS WELL AS SYNOPTIC SCALE WARMING
RESULT IN A WARMING TREND SUNDAY.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ARRIVES MONDAY AS WARM AIR
ADVECTION RAMPS UP AHEAD OF A DEEPENING SURFACE CYCLONE WELL TO
OUR NORTH. THE LITTLE BIT OF COLD AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
SHOULD MOSTLY DAM NORTH OF THE MOUNTAINS AND MODERATE WITHIN 12-18
HOURS. OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE READINGS
REACH THE 40S IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE OCCASIONAL 50 DEGREE
READING TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A WEAK WAVE TRANSPORTS QUICK MOVING
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE
MOVING IT OUT TO SEA. THIS WILL BRING CHANCE PRECIPITATION TO THE
REGION... AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE IT WOULD BRING MIXED PTYPE.
LASTLY MODELS FOLLOW THIS WITH A STRONGER SYSTEM FOR EASTER
WEEKEND WHICH MAY CAUSE HAVE TRAVEL IMPLICATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT IN RAIN...WITH SNOW AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS NORTHERN
NH AND THE WESTERN ME MOUNTAINS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY
RETURN ON FRIDAY AND CONTINUE FRIDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...SCATTERED MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN MOUNTAIN AND
COASTAL SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY. SCATTERED MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
MONDAY IN RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...
A SCA WILL BE REQUIRED OVER THE OUTER WATERS DUE TO EXPECTED
BUILDING SEAS LATER THIS EVENING AND CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY.
WINDS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...WAVES REMAIN HIGH ON SATURDAY BEFORE DROPPING BY
SUNDAY MORNING. SEAS AND WINDS INCREASE BRIEFLY MONDAY MORNING TO
SCA CRITERIA AHEAD OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WARMER WEATHER AND ONE HALF TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF RAIN
WILL INDUCE SOME RUNOFF THIS EVENING. WE WILL LIKELY SEE SOME
RISES ON SOUTHERN RIVERS. AT THE CURRENT TIME WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY
BIG ISSUES. PERHAPS SOME MINOR POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING THIS
EVENING. HOWEVER...WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR ICE MOVEMENT ON
RIVERS AND STREAMS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 11 PM THIS
     EVENING TO 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KGYX 262116 RRA
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...DELAYED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
516 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS EVENING.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE REGION FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS QUEBEC ON
MONDAY AND WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION MONDAY NIGHT.
QUICK MOVING LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS WESTERN
MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE. AREAS OF RAIN AND RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE
TO MOVE RAPIDLY TO THE NORTHEAST IN A STRONG GRADIENT FLOW ALOFT.
THE CHANGEOVER TO SNOW WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. SNOW WILL MIX IN OVER
CENTRAL AREAS AS WELL BY AROUND 08Z...BUT THIS IS MAINLY AN
ELEVATION BASED SNOW EVENT.

PREV DISC...A POSITIVE TILTED AND PROGRESSIVE LONG WAVE TROUGH
WILL MOVE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. AHEAD OF IT WARM AIR AT ALL
LEVELS SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON. A WEAK WAVE
WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH AND MOVE ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. TO THE NORTH OF THIS WAVE OVERUNNING
RAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION WITH SNOW OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. QPF AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM .50-.75 INCHES WHICH
SHOULD NOT POSE ANY FLOODING PROBLEMS. OVERNIGHT COLD AIR
ADVECTION GRADUALLY SPREADS SOUTH ALLOWING THE RAIN TO CHANGE TO
SNOW IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS WITH
SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED BY MORNING. OVER SOUTHERN AREAS
THE PRECIPITATION WILL PROBABLY END BEFORE ENOUGH COLD AIR SPREADS
SOUTH TO CAUSE ANY CHANGEOVER. USED A BLEND OF THE MODELS FOR QPF
AND OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY
PROGRESSES EAST BUT WILL HAVE PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER LINGERING
ACROSS THE AREA. SOME PARTIAL CLEARING MAY OCCUR OVER NORTHERN
AREAS WHILE SOUTHERN AREAS REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE NEAR SEASONAL ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS A BLEND OF THE
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEPENING LOW
PRESSURE WAVE ALONG THE OFFSHORE FRONT WILL REMAIN IN THE GULF
OF MAINE ON SATURDAY... HOWEVER COASTAL SECTIONS OF NH AND MAINE
WILL HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY. SKIES WILL
BE CLOUDY CONTRIBUTING TO A SMALL DIURNAL RISE INTO THE MID 30S
OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN. FARTHER NORTH MID TO UPPER 20S FOR HIGHS
IS MORE LIKELY.

SKIES BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT NORTH TO SOUTH OVERNIGHT AND COLDER AIR
FILTERS IN MAKING FOR A CHILLY NIGHT. SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE
COVERING MOST OF THE NATION MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES
BRINGING A NORTHERLY AND THEN EVENTUALLY WESTERLY WIND GRADIENT
TO NEW ENGLAND. SURFACE TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE AREA RESPOND
TO THIS DOWNSLOPING COMPONENT AS WELL AS SYNOPTIC SCALE WARMING
RESULT IN A WARMING TREND SUNDAY.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ARRIVES MONDAY AS WARM AIR
ADVECTION RAMPS UP AHEAD OF A DEEPENING SURFACE CYCLONE WELL TO
OUR NORTH. THE LITTLE BIT OF COLD AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
SHOULD MOSTLY DAM NORTH OF THE MOUNTAINS AND MODERATE WITHIN 12-18
HOURS. OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE READINGS
REACH THE 40S IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE OCCASIONAL 50 DEGREE
READING TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A WEAK WAVE TRANSPORTS QUICK MOVING
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE
MOVING IT OUT TO SEA. THIS WILL BRING CHANCE PRECIPITATION TO THE
REGION... AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE IT WOULD BRING MIXED PTYPE.
LASTLY MODELS FOLLOW THIS WITH A STRONGER SYSTEM FOR EASTER
WEEKEND WHICH MAY CAUSE HAVE TRAVEL IMPLICATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT IN RAIN...WITH SNOW AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS NORTHERN
NH AND THE WESTERN ME MOUNTAINS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY
RETURN ON FRIDAY AND CONTINUE FRIDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...SCATTERED MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN MOUNTAIN AND
COASTAL SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY. SCATTERED MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
MONDAY IN RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...
A SCA WILL BE REQUIRED OVER THE OUTER WATERS DUE TO EXPECTED
BUILDING SEAS LATER THIS EVENING AND CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY.
WINDS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...WAVES REMAIN HIGH ON SATURDAY BEFORE DROPPING BY
SUNDAY MORNING. SEAS AND WINDS INCREASE BRIEFLY MONDAY MORNING TO
SCA CRITERIA AHEAD OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WARMER WEATHER AND ONE HALF TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF RAIN
WILL INDUCE SOME RUNOFF THIS EVENING. WE WILL LIKELY SEE SOME
RISES ON SOUTHERN RIVERS. AT THE CURRENT TIME WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY
BIG ISSUES. PERHAPS SOME MINOR POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING THIS
EVENING. HOWEVER...WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR ICE MOVEMENT ON
RIVERS AND STREAMS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 11 PM THIS
     EVENING TO 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KCAR 262017
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
417 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK SECONDARY LOW WILL TRACK THROUGH THE GULF OF MAINE
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE FURTHER SWRD WITH THE QPF ASSOCIATED
WITH A WEAK WV OF SFC LOW PRES MOVG E FROM CNTRL NEW ACROSS THE
GULF OF ME. WHAT THIS IMPLIES IS THE DYNAMICS DO NOT LAST VERY
LONG THIS EVE ACROSS PTNS OF THE FA THAT WOULD BECOME COOL ENOUGH
FOR SN EARLIEST DUE EVAPORATIVE AND DYNAMIC COOLING...NAMELY THE
CNTRL ME HIGHLANDS AND THE HIGH TERRAIN IN AND ARND BAXTER ST
PARK. THIS RESULTED IN US LOWERING SNFL ACROSS THIS PTN OF THE FA
IN PARTICULAR. ANOTHER REASON IS THAT TEMPS OVR THIS AREA THIS
AFTN WERE ABOUT 5 DEG WARMER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT...SO BL TEMPS
WILL TAKE A COUPLE OF MORE HRS LONGER TO COOL TO SUPPORT ALL SN.
ACROSS THE N...IT IS NOW UNCERTAIN WHETHER STEADY PRECIP WILL
REACH EXTREME NRN PTNS OF THE FA...SO POPS WERE LOWERED TO CHC OR
LIKELY CATEGORY...WITH NOT ENOUGH QPF FOR RN TO CHG TO ANY SN OF
SIGNIFICANCE BEFORE PRECIP ENDS LATE TNGT. DOWNEAST AREAS MAY SEE
RN CHG TO SN LATE TNGT BEFORE PRECIP THERE ENDS ARND DAYBREAK.
THE GREATEST QPF OF ARND A HALF INCH WILL BE OVR DOWNEAST PTNS OF
THE FA.

OTHERWISE...SFC HI PRES FROM CNTRL CAN WILL PUSH CLDS AND PRECIP
NOT MUCH FURTHER S THAN THE GULF OF ME FRI INTO FRI NGT AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROF HANGS BACK OVR THE GREAT LKS AND N CNTRL APLCHNS.
COLDER SEMI-ARCTIC AIR WILL SLOWLY FILTER INTO THE FA FROM QB
BEGINNING VERY LATE TNGT AND CONTG THRU FRI NGT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT. A
LOW TRACKING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MAINE...WITH THE REMNANTS
OF AN OCCLUDED FRONT WRAPPED ACROSS CENTRAL MAINE. HIGHER PRESSURE
BUILDING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION. BY SUN
EVNG...THE LOW WILL TRACK EAST SOUTH OF ERN NOVA SCOTIA WITH
REMNANTS OF THE OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDED ALONG THE COAST OF
MAINE...HIGHER PRESSURE BUILDS INTO NW MAINE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH EARLY MON MRNG.

LOADED A BLEND OF THE NAM/GEM/GFS/ECMWF FOR HRLY
T/DP/WNDS/SKY/POP GRIDS...LOADED A BLEND OF GFS/ECMWF FOR QPF.
ADDED 15 PERCENT TO WNDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND...35 PERCENT OVER
COASTAL WATERS. ADDED NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MODELS CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AT THE START OF THE LONG
TERM. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD. A NEW LOW MOVING EAST ALONG THE NRN PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL
GREAT LAKES...WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SOUTH THROUGH ERN NY.
MON MRNG THE BY MON MRNG THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO WRN MAINE.
MON EVNG THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO WRN MAINE....AND BY TUE AFTERNOON
A RIDGE OF HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD ACROSS...BEFORE A
NEW LOW MOVES INTO CAPE COD REGION...WITH ITS ASSOCIATED FRONT
INTO SRN MAINE BY EARLY WED MRNG. WED MRNG THE GFS AND ECMWF
DIFFER A BIT ON POSITION AND MOVE MVMNT OF THE SYSTEM. THE GFS
MOVES THE LOW EAST ACROSS THE SRN GULF OF MAINE...WITH OCCLUDED
FRONT WRAPPED AROUND INTO CNTRL MAINE. THE ECMWF MOVES TO LOW OVER
CAPE COD WRAPPING THE OCCLUDED FRONT INTO SW MAINE. WED EVNG THE
GFS MOVES THE LOW SE OF NOVA SCOTIA... THE ECMWF MOVES THE LOW
SOUTH OF SW NOVA SCOTIA WITH THE OCCLUSION WRAPPED INTO THE BAY OF
FUNDY. HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS FOR WED NGT AND THURS.
THURS NGT TWO LOWS ONE MOVING NORTH ALONG THE COAST...THE OTHER
MOVING EAST ACROSS THE NRN GREAT LAKES...WILL MOVE INTO MAINE BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD.

LOADED THE SUPERBLEND THROUGH THE PERIOD. ADDED 15 PERCENT TO
WNDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND 35 PERCENT OVER COASTAL WATERS. LOADED
NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MOST TAF SITES CURRENTLY VFR...BUT SHOULD LOWER TO IFR
BY EVE AS RN AND RN CHGNG TO SN MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. NRN MOST
TAF SITES MAY ONLY LOWER TO MVFR OR LOW VFR DUE TO VERY LGT
PRECIP. OTHERWISE AFT THE PRECIP MOVES ESE OF THE FA...ALL TAF
SITES SHOULD RECOVER BACK TO VFR FRI MORN AND CONT SO THRU FRI
NGT.

SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS SAT AND SUN INCREASING CLOUDS BCMG
MVFR IN SCT SNOW SHOWERS ON MON.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: CURRENTLY WVS JUST BLO SCA THRESHOLDS...HOWEVER...WW3
WV GUIDANCE INDICATES SWELLS FROM LOW PRES OVR THE OPEN ATLC MOVG
INTO OUR OUTER MZS AFT MDNGT TNGT AND CONTG THRU FRI...SO WE
ISSUED AN SCA FOR HAZ SEAS FOR THESE MZS. AFTWRDS...WIND GUSTS MAY
REACH OR EXCEED 25 KTS FRI NGT...SO WE MAY NEED TO TRANSITION TO
A GENERIC SCA BY TOMORROW`S AFTN FCST UPDATE. WE WENT CLOSE TO WW3
WV HT GUIDANCE FOR FCST WV HTS THRU THE NEAR TERM THIS UPDATE.

SHORT TERM: AN SCA MAY BE REQUIRED AT THE START OF THE PERIOD AS
A LOW TRACK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE GULF OF MAINE.
WNDS AND SEAS WILL SUBSIDE QUICKLY AS HIGHER PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE REGION AND WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
     TO 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...NORTON
LONG TERM...NORTON
AVIATION...VJN/NORTON
MARINE...VJN/NORTON



000
FXUS61 KCAR 262017
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
417 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK SECONDARY LOW WILL TRACK THROUGH THE GULF OF MAINE
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE FURTHER SWRD WITH THE QPF ASSOCIATED
WITH A WEAK WV OF SFC LOW PRES MOVG E FROM CNTRL NEW ACROSS THE
GULF OF ME. WHAT THIS IMPLIES IS THE DYNAMICS DO NOT LAST VERY
LONG THIS EVE ACROSS PTNS OF THE FA THAT WOULD BECOME COOL ENOUGH
FOR SN EARLIEST DUE EVAPORATIVE AND DYNAMIC COOLING...NAMELY THE
CNTRL ME HIGHLANDS AND THE HIGH TERRAIN IN AND ARND BAXTER ST
PARK. THIS RESULTED IN US LOWERING SNFL ACROSS THIS PTN OF THE FA
IN PARTICULAR. ANOTHER REASON IS THAT TEMPS OVR THIS AREA THIS
AFTN WERE ABOUT 5 DEG WARMER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT...SO BL TEMPS
WILL TAKE A COUPLE OF MORE HRS LONGER TO COOL TO SUPPORT ALL SN.
ACROSS THE N...IT IS NOW UNCERTAIN WHETHER STEADY PRECIP WILL
REACH EXTREME NRN PTNS OF THE FA...SO POPS WERE LOWERED TO CHC OR
LIKELY CATEGORY...WITH NOT ENOUGH QPF FOR RN TO CHG TO ANY SN OF
SIGNIFICANCE BEFORE PRECIP ENDS LATE TNGT. DOWNEAST AREAS MAY SEE
RN CHG TO SN LATE TNGT BEFORE PRECIP THERE ENDS ARND DAYBREAK.
THE GREATEST QPF OF ARND A HALF INCH WILL BE OVR DOWNEAST PTNS OF
THE FA.

OTHERWISE...SFC HI PRES FROM CNTRL CAN WILL PUSH CLDS AND PRECIP
NOT MUCH FURTHER S THAN THE GULF OF ME FRI INTO FRI NGT AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROF HANGS BACK OVR THE GREAT LKS AND N CNTRL APLCHNS.
COLDER SEMI-ARCTIC AIR WILL SLOWLY FILTER INTO THE FA FROM QB
BEGINNING VERY LATE TNGT AND CONTG THRU FRI NGT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT. A
LOW TRACKING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MAINE...WITH THE REMNANTS
OF AN OCCLUDED FRONT WRAPPED ACROSS CENTRAL MAINE. HIGHER PRESSURE
BUILDING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION. BY SUN
EVNG...THE LOW WILL TRACK EAST SOUTH OF ERN NOVA SCOTIA WITH
REMNANTS OF THE OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDED ALONG THE COAST OF
MAINE...HIGHER PRESSURE BUILDS INTO NW MAINE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH EARLY MON MRNG.

LOADED A BLEND OF THE NAM/GEM/GFS/ECMWF FOR HRLY
T/DP/WNDS/SKY/POP GRIDS...LOADED A BLEND OF GFS/ECMWF FOR QPF.
ADDED 15 PERCENT TO WNDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND...35 PERCENT OVER
COASTAL WATERS. ADDED NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MODELS CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AT THE START OF THE LONG
TERM. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD. A NEW LOW MOVING EAST ALONG THE NRN PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL
GREAT LAKES...WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SOUTH THROUGH ERN NY.
MON MRNG THE BY MON MRNG THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO WRN MAINE.
MON EVNG THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO WRN MAINE....AND BY TUE AFTERNOON
A RIDGE OF HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD ACROSS...BEFORE A
NEW LOW MOVES INTO CAPE COD REGION...WITH ITS ASSOCIATED FRONT
INTO SRN MAINE BY EARLY WED MRNG. WED MRNG THE GFS AND ECMWF
DIFFER A BIT ON POSITION AND MOVE MVMNT OF THE SYSTEM. THE GFS
MOVES THE LOW EAST ACROSS THE SRN GULF OF MAINE...WITH OCCLUDED
FRONT WRAPPED AROUND INTO CNTRL MAINE. THE ECMWF MOVES TO LOW OVER
CAPE COD WRAPPING THE OCCLUDED FRONT INTO SW MAINE. WED EVNG THE
GFS MOVES THE LOW SE OF NOVA SCOTIA... THE ECMWF MOVES THE LOW
SOUTH OF SW NOVA SCOTIA WITH THE OCCLUSION WRAPPED INTO THE BAY OF
FUNDY. HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS FOR WED NGT AND THURS.
THURS NGT TWO LOWS ONE MOVING NORTH ALONG THE COAST...THE OTHER
MOVING EAST ACROSS THE NRN GREAT LAKES...WILL MOVE INTO MAINE BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD.

LOADED THE SUPERBLEND THROUGH THE PERIOD. ADDED 15 PERCENT TO
WNDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND 35 PERCENT OVER COASTAL WATERS. LOADED
NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MOST TAF SITES CURRENTLY VFR...BUT SHOULD LOWER TO IFR
BY EVE AS RN AND RN CHGNG TO SN MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. NRN MOST
TAF SITES MAY ONLY LOWER TO MVFR OR LOW VFR DUE TO VERY LGT
PRECIP. OTHERWISE AFT THE PRECIP MOVES ESE OF THE FA...ALL TAF
SITES SHOULD RECOVER BACK TO VFR FRI MORN AND CONT SO THRU FRI
NGT.

SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS SAT AND SUN INCREASING CLOUDS BCMG
MVFR IN SCT SNOW SHOWERS ON MON.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: CURRENTLY WVS JUST BLO SCA THRESHOLDS...HOWEVER...WW3
WV GUIDANCE INDICATES SWELLS FROM LOW PRES OVR THE OPEN ATLC MOVG
INTO OUR OUTER MZS AFT MDNGT TNGT AND CONTG THRU FRI...SO WE
ISSUED AN SCA FOR HAZ SEAS FOR THESE MZS. AFTWRDS...WIND GUSTS MAY
REACH OR EXCEED 25 KTS FRI NGT...SO WE MAY NEED TO TRANSITION TO
A GENERIC SCA BY TOMORROW`S AFTN FCST UPDATE. WE WENT CLOSE TO WW3
WV HT GUIDANCE FOR FCST WV HTS THRU THE NEAR TERM THIS UPDATE.

SHORT TERM: AN SCA MAY BE REQUIRED AT THE START OF THE PERIOD AS
A LOW TRACK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE GULF OF MAINE.
WNDS AND SEAS WILL SUBSIDE QUICKLY AS HIGHER PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE REGION AND WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
     TO 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...NORTON
LONG TERM...NORTON
AVIATION...VJN/NORTON
MARINE...VJN/NORTON




000
FXUS61 KGYX 261908
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
308 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS EVENING.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE REGION FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS QUEBEC ON
MONDAY AND WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION MONDAY NIGHT.
QUICK MOVING LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A POSITIVE TILTED AND PROGRESSIVE LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. AHEAD OF IT WARM AIR AT ALL LEVELS
SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON. A WEAK WAVE WILL
DEVELOP ALONG THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH AND MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT. TO THE NORTH OF THIS WAVE OVERUNNING RAIN IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION WITH SNOW OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
QPF AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM .50-.75 INCHES WHICH SHOULD NOT POSE
ANY FLOODING PROBLEMS. OVERNIGHT COLD AIR ADVECTION GRADUALLY
SPREADS SOUTH ALLOWING THE RAIN TO CHANGE TO SNOW IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS WITH SOME LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED BY MORNING. OVER SOUTHERN AREAS THE
PRECIPITATION WILL PROBABLY END BEFORE ENOUGH COLD AIR SPREADS
SOUTH TO CAUSE ANY CHANGEOVER. USED A BLEND OF THE MODELS FOR QPF
AND OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY
PROGRESSES EAST BUT WILL HAVE PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER LINGERING
ACROSS THE AREA. SOME PARTIAL CLEARING MAY OCCUR OVER NORTHERN
AREAS WHILE SOUTHERN AREAS REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE NEAR SEASONAL ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS A BLEND OF THE
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEPENING LOW
PRESSURE WAVE ALONG THE OFFSHORE FRONT WILL REMAIN IN THE GULF
OF MAINE ON SATURDAY... HOWEVER COASTAL SECTIONS OF NH AND MAINE
WILL HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY. SKIES WILL
BE CLOUDY CONTRIBUTING TO A SMALL DIURNAL RISE INTO THE MID 30S
OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN. FARTHER NORTH MID TO UPPER 20S FOR HIGHS
IS MORE LIKELY.

SKIES BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT NORTH TO SOUTH OVERNIGHT AND COLDER AIR
FILTERS IN MAKING FOR A CHILLY NIGHT. SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE
COVERING MOST OF THE NATION MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES
BRINGING A NORTHERLY AND THEN EVENTUALLY WESTERLY WIND GRADIENT
TO NEW ENGLAND. SURFACE TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE AREA RESPOND
TO THIS DOWNSLOPING COMPONENT AS WELL AS SYNOPTIC SCALE WARMING
RESULT IN A WARMING TREND SUNDAY.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ARRIVES MONDAY AS WARM AIR
ADVECTION RAMPS UP AHEAD OF A DEEPENING SURFACE CYCLONE WELL TO
OUR NORTH. THE LITTLE BIT OF COLD AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
SHOULD MOSTLY DAM NORTH OF THE MOUNTAINS AND MODERATE WITHIN 12-18
HOURS. OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE READINGS
REACH THE 40S IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE OCCASIONAL 50 DEGREE
READING TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A WEAK WAVE TRANSPORTS QUICK MOVING
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE
MOVING IT OUT TO SEA. THIS WILL BRING CHANCE PRECIPITATION TO THE
REGION... AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE IT WOULD BRING MIXED PTYPE.
LASTLY MODELS FOLLOW THIS WITH A STRONGER SYSTEM FOR EASTER
WEEKEND WHICH MAY CAUSE HAVE TRAVEL IMPLICATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT IN RAIN...WITH SNOW AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS NORTHERN
NH AND THE WESTERN ME MOUNTAINS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY
RETURN ON FRIDAY AND CONTINUE FRIDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...SCATTERED MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN MOUNTAIN AND
COASTAL SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY. SCATTERED MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
MONDAY IN RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...
A SCA WILL BE REQUIRED OVER THE OUTER WATERS DUE TO EXPECTED
BUILDING SEAS LATER THIS EVENING AND CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY.
WINDS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...WAVES REMAIN HIGH ON SATURDAY BEFORE DROPPING BY
SUNDAY MORNING. SEAS AND WINDS INCREASE BRIEFLY MONDAY MORNING TO
SCA CRITERIA AHEAD OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WARMER WEATHER AND ONE HALF TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF RAIN
WILL INDUCE SOME RUNOFF THIS EVENING. WE WILL LIKELY SEE SOME
RISES ON SOUTHERN RIVERS. AT THE CURRENT TIME WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY
BIG ISSUES. PERHAPS SOME MINOR POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING THIS
EVENING. HOWEVER...WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR ICE MOVEMENT ON
RIVERS AND STREAMS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 11 PM THIS
     EVENING TO 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$

MARINE/HANES




000
FXUS61 KGYX 261908
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
308 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS EVENING.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE REGION FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS QUEBEC ON
MONDAY AND WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION MONDAY NIGHT.
QUICK MOVING LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A POSITIVE TILTED AND PROGRESSIVE LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. AHEAD OF IT WARM AIR AT ALL LEVELS
SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON. A WEAK WAVE WILL
DEVELOP ALONG THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH AND MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT. TO THE NORTH OF THIS WAVE OVERUNNING RAIN IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION WITH SNOW OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
QPF AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM .50-.75 INCHES WHICH SHOULD NOT POSE
ANY FLOODING PROBLEMS. OVERNIGHT COLD AIR ADVECTION GRADUALLY
SPREADS SOUTH ALLOWING THE RAIN TO CHANGE TO SNOW IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS WITH SOME LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED BY MORNING. OVER SOUTHERN AREAS THE
PRECIPITATION WILL PROBABLY END BEFORE ENOUGH COLD AIR SPREADS
SOUTH TO CAUSE ANY CHANGEOVER. USED A BLEND OF THE MODELS FOR QPF
AND OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY
PROGRESSES EAST BUT WILL HAVE PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER LINGERING
ACROSS THE AREA. SOME PARTIAL CLEARING MAY OCCUR OVER NORTHERN
AREAS WHILE SOUTHERN AREAS REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE NEAR SEASONAL ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS A BLEND OF THE
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEPENING LOW
PRESSURE WAVE ALONG THE OFFSHORE FRONT WILL REMAIN IN THE GULF
OF MAINE ON SATURDAY... HOWEVER COASTAL SECTIONS OF NH AND MAINE
WILL HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY. SKIES WILL
BE CLOUDY CONTRIBUTING TO A SMALL DIURNAL RISE INTO THE MID 30S
OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN. FARTHER NORTH MID TO UPPER 20S FOR HIGHS
IS MORE LIKELY.

SKIES BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT NORTH TO SOUTH OVERNIGHT AND COLDER AIR
FILTERS IN MAKING FOR A CHILLY NIGHT. SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE
COVERING MOST OF THE NATION MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES
BRINGING A NORTHERLY AND THEN EVENTUALLY WESTERLY WIND GRADIENT
TO NEW ENGLAND. SURFACE TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE AREA RESPOND
TO THIS DOWNSLOPING COMPONENT AS WELL AS SYNOPTIC SCALE WARMING
RESULT IN A WARMING TREND SUNDAY.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ARRIVES MONDAY AS WARM AIR
ADVECTION RAMPS UP AHEAD OF A DEEPENING SURFACE CYCLONE WELL TO
OUR NORTH. THE LITTLE BIT OF COLD AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
SHOULD MOSTLY DAM NORTH OF THE MOUNTAINS AND MODERATE WITHIN 12-18
HOURS. OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE READINGS
REACH THE 40S IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE OCCASIONAL 50 DEGREE
READING TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A WEAK WAVE TRANSPORTS QUICK MOVING
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE
MOVING IT OUT TO SEA. THIS WILL BRING CHANCE PRECIPITATION TO THE
REGION... AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE IT WOULD BRING MIXED PTYPE.
LASTLY MODELS FOLLOW THIS WITH A STRONGER SYSTEM FOR EASTER
WEEKEND WHICH MAY CAUSE HAVE TRAVEL IMPLICATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT IN RAIN...WITH SNOW AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS NORTHERN
NH AND THE WESTERN ME MOUNTAINS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY
RETURN ON FRIDAY AND CONTINUE FRIDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...SCATTERED MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN MOUNTAIN AND
COASTAL SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY. SCATTERED MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
MONDAY IN RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...
A SCA WILL BE REQUIRED OVER THE OUTER WATERS DUE TO EXPECTED
BUILDING SEAS LATER THIS EVENING AND CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY.
WINDS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...WAVES REMAIN HIGH ON SATURDAY BEFORE DROPPING BY
SUNDAY MORNING. SEAS AND WINDS INCREASE BRIEFLY MONDAY MORNING TO
SCA CRITERIA AHEAD OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WARMER WEATHER AND ONE HALF TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF RAIN
WILL INDUCE SOME RUNOFF THIS EVENING. WE WILL LIKELY SEE SOME
RISES ON SOUTHERN RIVERS. AT THE CURRENT TIME WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY
BIG ISSUES. PERHAPS SOME MINOR POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING THIS
EVENING. HOWEVER...WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR ICE MOVEMENT ON
RIVERS AND STREAMS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 11 PM THIS
     EVENING TO 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$

MARINE/HANES




000
FXUS61 KGYX 261908
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
308 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS EVENING.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE REGION FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS QUEBEC ON
MONDAY AND WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION MONDAY NIGHT.
QUICK MOVING LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A POSITIVE TILTED AND PROGRESSIVE LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. AHEAD OF IT WARM AIR AT ALL LEVELS
SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON. A WEAK WAVE WILL
DEVELOP ALONG THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH AND MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT. TO THE NORTH OF THIS WAVE OVERUNNING RAIN IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION WITH SNOW OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
QPF AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM .50-.75 INCHES WHICH SHOULD NOT POSE
ANY FLOODING PROBLEMS. OVERNIGHT COLD AIR ADVECTION GRADUALLY
SPREADS SOUTH ALLOWING THE RAIN TO CHANGE TO SNOW IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS WITH SOME LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED BY MORNING. OVER SOUTHERN AREAS THE
PRECIPITATION WILL PROBABLY END BEFORE ENOUGH COLD AIR SPREADS
SOUTH TO CAUSE ANY CHANGEOVER. USED A BLEND OF THE MODELS FOR QPF
AND OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY
PROGRESSES EAST BUT WILL HAVE PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER LINGERING
ACROSS THE AREA. SOME PARTIAL CLEARING MAY OCCUR OVER NORTHERN
AREAS WHILE SOUTHERN AREAS REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE NEAR SEASONAL ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS A BLEND OF THE
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEPENING LOW
PRESSURE WAVE ALONG THE OFFSHORE FRONT WILL REMAIN IN THE GULF
OF MAINE ON SATURDAY... HOWEVER COASTAL SECTIONS OF NH AND MAINE
WILL HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY. SKIES WILL
BE CLOUDY CONTRIBUTING TO A SMALL DIURNAL RISE INTO THE MID 30S
OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN. FARTHER NORTH MID TO UPPER 20S FOR HIGHS
IS MORE LIKELY.

SKIES BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT NORTH TO SOUTH OVERNIGHT AND COLDER AIR
FILTERS IN MAKING FOR A CHILLY NIGHT. SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE
COVERING MOST OF THE NATION MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES
BRINGING A NORTHERLY AND THEN EVENTUALLY WESTERLY WIND GRADIENT
TO NEW ENGLAND. SURFACE TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE AREA RESPOND
TO THIS DOWNSLOPING COMPONENT AS WELL AS SYNOPTIC SCALE WARMING
RESULT IN A WARMING TREND SUNDAY.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ARRIVES MONDAY AS WARM AIR
ADVECTION RAMPS UP AHEAD OF A DEEPENING SURFACE CYCLONE WELL TO
OUR NORTH. THE LITTLE BIT OF COLD AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
SHOULD MOSTLY DAM NORTH OF THE MOUNTAINS AND MODERATE WITHIN 12-18
HOURS. OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE READINGS
REACH THE 40S IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE OCCASIONAL 50 DEGREE
READING TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A WEAK WAVE TRANSPORTS QUICK MOVING
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE
MOVING IT OUT TO SEA. THIS WILL BRING CHANCE PRECIPITATION TO THE
REGION... AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE IT WOULD BRING MIXED PTYPE.
LASTLY MODELS FOLLOW THIS WITH A STRONGER SYSTEM FOR EASTER
WEEKEND WHICH MAY CAUSE HAVE TRAVEL IMPLICATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT IN RAIN...WITH SNOW AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS NORTHERN
NH AND THE WESTERN ME MOUNTAINS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY
RETURN ON FRIDAY AND CONTINUE FRIDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...SCATTERED MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN MOUNTAIN AND
COASTAL SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY. SCATTERED MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
MONDAY IN RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...
A SCA WILL BE REQUIRED OVER THE OUTER WATERS DUE TO EXPECTED
BUILDING SEAS LATER THIS EVENING AND CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY.
WINDS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...WAVES REMAIN HIGH ON SATURDAY BEFORE DROPPING BY
SUNDAY MORNING. SEAS AND WINDS INCREASE BRIEFLY MONDAY MORNING TO
SCA CRITERIA AHEAD OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WARMER WEATHER AND ONE HALF TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF RAIN
WILL INDUCE SOME RUNOFF THIS EVENING. WE WILL LIKELY SEE SOME
RISES ON SOUTHERN RIVERS. AT THE CURRENT TIME WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY
BIG ISSUES. PERHAPS SOME MINOR POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING THIS
EVENING. HOWEVER...WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR ICE MOVEMENT ON
RIVERS AND STREAMS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 11 PM THIS
     EVENING TO 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$

MARINE/HANES




000
FXUS61 KGYX 261908
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
308 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS EVENING.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE REGION FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS QUEBEC ON
MONDAY AND WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION MONDAY NIGHT.
QUICK MOVING LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A POSITIVE TILTED AND PROGRESSIVE LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. AHEAD OF IT WARM AIR AT ALL LEVELS
SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON. A WEAK WAVE WILL
DEVELOP ALONG THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH AND MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT. TO THE NORTH OF THIS WAVE OVERUNNING RAIN IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION WITH SNOW OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
QPF AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM .50-.75 INCHES WHICH SHOULD NOT POSE
ANY FLOODING PROBLEMS. OVERNIGHT COLD AIR ADVECTION GRADUALLY
SPREADS SOUTH ALLOWING THE RAIN TO CHANGE TO SNOW IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS WITH SOME LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED BY MORNING. OVER SOUTHERN AREAS THE
PRECIPITATION WILL PROBABLY END BEFORE ENOUGH COLD AIR SPREADS
SOUTH TO CAUSE ANY CHANGEOVER. USED A BLEND OF THE MODELS FOR QPF
AND OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY
PROGRESSES EAST BUT WILL HAVE PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER LINGERING
ACROSS THE AREA. SOME PARTIAL CLEARING MAY OCCUR OVER NORTHERN
AREAS WHILE SOUTHERN AREAS REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE NEAR SEASONAL ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS A BLEND OF THE
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEPENING LOW
PRESSURE WAVE ALONG THE OFFSHORE FRONT WILL REMAIN IN THE GULF
OF MAINE ON SATURDAY... HOWEVER COASTAL SECTIONS OF NH AND MAINE
WILL HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY. SKIES WILL
BE CLOUDY CONTRIBUTING TO A SMALL DIURNAL RISE INTO THE MID 30S
OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN. FARTHER NORTH MID TO UPPER 20S FOR HIGHS
IS MORE LIKELY.

SKIES BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT NORTH TO SOUTH OVERNIGHT AND COLDER AIR
FILTERS IN MAKING FOR A CHILLY NIGHT. SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE
COVERING MOST OF THE NATION MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES
BRINGING A NORTHERLY AND THEN EVENTUALLY WESTERLY WIND GRADIENT
TO NEW ENGLAND. SURFACE TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE AREA RESPOND
TO THIS DOWNSLOPING COMPONENT AS WELL AS SYNOPTIC SCALE WARMING
RESULT IN A WARMING TREND SUNDAY.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ARRIVES MONDAY AS WARM AIR
ADVECTION RAMPS UP AHEAD OF A DEEPENING SURFACE CYCLONE WELL TO
OUR NORTH. THE LITTLE BIT OF COLD AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
SHOULD MOSTLY DAM NORTH OF THE MOUNTAINS AND MODERATE WITHIN 12-18
HOURS. OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE READINGS
REACH THE 40S IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE OCCASIONAL 50 DEGREE
READING TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A WEAK WAVE TRANSPORTS QUICK MOVING
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE
MOVING IT OUT TO SEA. THIS WILL BRING CHANCE PRECIPITATION TO THE
REGION... AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE IT WOULD BRING MIXED PTYPE.
LASTLY MODELS FOLLOW THIS WITH A STRONGER SYSTEM FOR EASTER
WEEKEND WHICH MAY CAUSE HAVE TRAVEL IMPLICATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT IN RAIN...WITH SNOW AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS NORTHERN
NH AND THE WESTERN ME MOUNTAINS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY
RETURN ON FRIDAY AND CONTINUE FRIDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...SCATTERED MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN MOUNTAIN AND
COASTAL SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY. SCATTERED MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
MONDAY IN RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...
A SCA WILL BE REQUIRED OVER THE OUTER WATERS DUE TO EXPECTED
BUILDING SEAS LATER THIS EVENING AND CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY.
WINDS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...WAVES REMAIN HIGH ON SATURDAY BEFORE DROPPING BY
SUNDAY MORNING. SEAS AND WINDS INCREASE BRIEFLY MONDAY MORNING TO
SCA CRITERIA AHEAD OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WARMER WEATHER AND ONE HALF TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF RAIN
WILL INDUCE SOME RUNOFF THIS EVENING. WE WILL LIKELY SEE SOME
RISES ON SOUTHERN RIVERS. AT THE CURRENT TIME WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY
BIG ISSUES. PERHAPS SOME MINOR POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING THIS
EVENING. HOWEVER...WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR ICE MOVEMENT ON
RIVERS AND STREAMS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 11 PM THIS
     EVENING TO 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$

MARINE/HANES




000
FXUS61 KGYX 261908
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
308 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS EVENING.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE REGION FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS QUEBEC ON
MONDAY AND WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION MONDAY NIGHT.
QUICK MOVING LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A POSITIVE TILTED AND PROGRESSIVE LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. AHEAD OF IT WARM AIR AT ALL LEVELS
SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON. A WEAK WAVE WILL
DEVELOP ALONG THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH AND MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT. TO THE NORTH OF THIS WAVE OVERUNNING RAIN IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION WITH SNOW OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
QPF AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM .50-.75 INCHES WHICH SHOULD NOT POSE
ANY FLOODING PROBLEMS. OVERNIGHT COLD AIR ADVECTION GRADUALLY
SPREADS SOUTH ALLOWING THE RAIN TO CHANGE TO SNOW IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS WITH SOME LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED BY MORNING. OVER SOUTHERN AREAS THE
PRECIPITATION WILL PROBABLY END BEFORE ENOUGH COLD AIR SPREADS
SOUTH TO CAUSE ANY CHANGEOVER. USED A BLEND OF THE MODELS FOR QPF
AND OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY
PROGRESSES EAST BUT WILL HAVE PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER LINGERING
ACROSS THE AREA. SOME PARTIAL CLEARING MAY OCCUR OVER NORTHERN
AREAS WHILE SOUTHERN AREAS REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE NEAR SEASONAL ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS A BLEND OF THE
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEPENING LOW
PRESSURE WAVE ALONG THE OFFSHORE FRONT WILL REMAIN IN THE GULF
OF MAINE ON SATURDAY... HOWEVER COASTAL SECTIONS OF NH AND MAINE
WILL HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY. SKIES WILL
BE CLOUDY CONTRIBUTING TO A SMALL DIURNAL RISE INTO THE MID 30S
OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN. FARTHER NORTH MID TO UPPER 20S FOR HIGHS
IS MORE LIKELY.

SKIES BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT NORTH TO SOUTH OVERNIGHT AND COLDER AIR
FILTERS IN MAKING FOR A CHILLY NIGHT. SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE
COVERING MOST OF THE NATION MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES
BRINGING A NORTHERLY AND THEN EVENTUALLY WESTERLY WIND GRADIENT
TO NEW ENGLAND. SURFACE TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE AREA RESPOND
TO THIS DOWNSLOPING COMPONENT AS WELL AS SYNOPTIC SCALE WARMING
RESULT IN A WARMING TREND SUNDAY.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ARRIVES MONDAY AS WARM AIR
ADVECTION RAMPS UP AHEAD OF A DEEPENING SURFACE CYCLONE WELL TO
OUR NORTH. THE LITTLE BIT OF COLD AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
SHOULD MOSTLY DAM NORTH OF THE MOUNTAINS AND MODERATE WITHIN 12-18
HOURS. OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE READINGS
REACH THE 40S IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE OCCASIONAL 50 DEGREE
READING TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A WEAK WAVE TRANSPORTS QUICK MOVING
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE
MOVING IT OUT TO SEA. THIS WILL BRING CHANCE PRECIPITATION TO THE
REGION... AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE IT WOULD BRING MIXED PTYPE.
LASTLY MODELS FOLLOW THIS WITH A STRONGER SYSTEM FOR EASTER
WEEKEND WHICH MAY CAUSE HAVE TRAVEL IMPLICATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT IN RAIN...WITH SNOW AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS NORTHERN
NH AND THE WESTERN ME MOUNTAINS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY
RETURN ON FRIDAY AND CONTINUE FRIDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...SCATTERED MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN MOUNTAIN AND
COASTAL SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY. SCATTERED MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
MONDAY IN RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...
A SCA WILL BE REQUIRED OVER THE OUTER WATERS DUE TO EXPECTED
BUILDING SEAS LATER THIS EVENING AND CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY.
WINDS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...WAVES REMAIN HIGH ON SATURDAY BEFORE DROPPING BY
SUNDAY MORNING. SEAS AND WINDS INCREASE BRIEFLY MONDAY MORNING TO
SCA CRITERIA AHEAD OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WARMER WEATHER AND ONE HALF TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF RAIN
WILL INDUCE SOME RUNOFF THIS EVENING. WE WILL LIKELY SEE SOME
RISES ON SOUTHERN RIVERS. AT THE CURRENT TIME WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY
BIG ISSUES. PERHAPS SOME MINOR POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING THIS
EVENING. HOWEVER...WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR ICE MOVEMENT ON
RIVERS AND STREAMS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 11 PM THIS
     EVENING TO 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$

MARINE/HANES




000
FXUS61 KGYX 261908
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
308 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS EVENING.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE REGION FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS QUEBEC ON
MONDAY AND WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION MONDAY NIGHT.
QUICK MOVING LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A POSITIVE TILTED AND PROGRESSIVE LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. AHEAD OF IT WARM AIR AT ALL LEVELS
SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON. A WEAK WAVE WILL
DEVELOP ALONG THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH AND MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT. TO THE NORTH OF THIS WAVE OVERUNNING RAIN IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION WITH SNOW OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
QPF AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM .50-.75 INCHES WHICH SHOULD NOT POSE
ANY FLOODING PROBLEMS. OVERNIGHT COLD AIR ADVECTION GRADUALLY
SPREADS SOUTH ALLOWING THE RAIN TO CHANGE TO SNOW IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS WITH SOME LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED BY MORNING. OVER SOUTHERN AREAS THE
PRECIPITATION WILL PROBABLY END BEFORE ENOUGH COLD AIR SPREADS
SOUTH TO CAUSE ANY CHANGEOVER. USED A BLEND OF THE MODELS FOR QPF
AND OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY
PROGRESSES EAST BUT WILL HAVE PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER LINGERING
ACROSS THE AREA. SOME PARTIAL CLEARING MAY OCCUR OVER NORTHERN
AREAS WHILE SOUTHERN AREAS REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE NEAR SEASONAL ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS A BLEND OF THE
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEPENING LOW
PRESSURE WAVE ALONG THE OFFSHORE FRONT WILL REMAIN IN THE GULF
OF MAINE ON SATURDAY... HOWEVER COASTAL SECTIONS OF NH AND MAINE
WILL HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY. SKIES WILL
BE CLOUDY CONTRIBUTING TO A SMALL DIURNAL RISE INTO THE MID 30S
OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN. FARTHER NORTH MID TO UPPER 20S FOR HIGHS
IS MORE LIKELY.

SKIES BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT NORTH TO SOUTH OVERNIGHT AND COLDER AIR
FILTERS IN MAKING FOR A CHILLY NIGHT. SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE
COVERING MOST OF THE NATION MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES
BRINGING A NORTHERLY AND THEN EVENTUALLY WESTERLY WIND GRADIENT
TO NEW ENGLAND. SURFACE TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE AREA RESPOND
TO THIS DOWNSLOPING COMPONENT AS WELL AS SYNOPTIC SCALE WARMING
RESULT IN A WARMING TREND SUNDAY.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ARRIVES MONDAY AS WARM AIR
ADVECTION RAMPS UP AHEAD OF A DEEPENING SURFACE CYCLONE WELL TO
OUR NORTH. THE LITTLE BIT OF COLD AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
SHOULD MOSTLY DAM NORTH OF THE MOUNTAINS AND MODERATE WITHIN 12-18
HOURS. OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE READINGS
REACH THE 40S IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE OCCASIONAL 50 DEGREE
READING TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A WEAK WAVE TRANSPORTS QUICK MOVING
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE
MOVING IT OUT TO SEA. THIS WILL BRING CHANCE PRECIPITATION TO THE
REGION... AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE IT WOULD BRING MIXED PTYPE.
LASTLY MODELS FOLLOW THIS WITH A STRONGER SYSTEM FOR EASTER
WEEKEND WHICH MAY CAUSE HAVE TRAVEL IMPLICATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT IN RAIN...WITH SNOW AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS NORTHERN
NH AND THE WESTERN ME MOUNTAINS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY
RETURN ON FRIDAY AND CONTINUE FRIDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...SCATTERED MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN MOUNTAIN AND
COASTAL SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY. SCATTERED MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
MONDAY IN RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...
A SCA WILL BE REQUIRED OVER THE OUTER WATERS DUE TO EXPECTED
BUILDING SEAS LATER THIS EVENING AND CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY.
WINDS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...WAVES REMAIN HIGH ON SATURDAY BEFORE DROPPING BY
SUNDAY MORNING. SEAS AND WINDS INCREASE BRIEFLY MONDAY MORNING TO
SCA CRITERIA AHEAD OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WARMER WEATHER AND ONE HALF TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF RAIN
WILL INDUCE SOME RUNOFF THIS EVENING. WE WILL LIKELY SEE SOME
RISES ON SOUTHERN RIVERS. AT THE CURRENT TIME WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY
BIG ISSUES. PERHAPS SOME MINOR POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING THIS
EVENING. HOWEVER...WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR ICE MOVEMENT ON
RIVERS AND STREAMS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 11 PM THIS
     EVENING TO 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$

MARINE/HANES



000
FXUS61 KCAR 261652
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1252 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH QUEBEC THIS
AFTERNOON. A WEAK SECONDARY LOW WILL TRACK THROUGH THE GULF OF
MAINE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
1235 PM UPDATE: MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO FCST HI TEMPS AND FCST HRLY
TEMPS BASED ON 11 AM AND NOON OBS...MOST OF WHICH RESULTED IN
MILDER AFTN TEMPS OVR W CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA. OTHERWISE...NO CHGS
ATTM TO OTHER NEAR REM FCST ELEMENTS.

PREV DISC: STEADY PCPN WILL MV INTO AREA FM THE WEST AFT 18Z IN
THE FORM OF -RA. AS THE AFTN WEARS ON AND COLD AIR FILTERS DOWN FM
THE NORTH EXPECT RA/SN MIX TO BEGIN ACRS THE NW AFTER 22Z AND
PROGRESS SWRD FM THERE THRU THE END OF THE NR TERM. NO OTHER CHGS
NEEDED TO GRIDS AT THIS TIME.

AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT RAIN WL BE TURNING OVR TO SNOW JUST
AS MOISTURE EVACUATES AREA THEREFORE AM NOT EXPECTING MORE THAN
1-2 QUICK INCHES OF SNOW OVR NW CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA...WITH 2-4
INCHES POSSIBLE OVR THE HIGHER TRRN OF THE CNTRL ME HIGHLANDS AND
BAXTER ST PARK. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE N WHERE LESS EVENT QPF AND
OVR DOWNEAST WHERE THE CHG OVR TO SN WILL BE VERY LATE TNGT... AN
INCH OR LESS OF SNFL CAN BE XPCTD.

AS FOR QPF AMNTS OVR DOWNEAST HV TRENDED DOWN ON AMNTS TONIGHT
WITH MODELS TRENDING FURTHER OFFSHORE WITH TRACK OF LOW. MAINLY
LOOKING FOR 0.5-0.75 INCHES FM THIS AFTN THRU 12Z FRIDAY BFR RAIN
HEADS SOUTH AND EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MOISTURE ALONG A COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM A WEAK SECONDARY LOW MAY
PRODUCE SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS DOWNEAST EARLY FRIDAY.
OTHERWISE, FRIDAY WILL BECOME PARTLY SUNNY WITH COOLER DRIER AIR
MOVING IN AHEAD OF COLD HIGH PRESSURE. SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO TREND
CLEARER FRIDAY NIGHT. SATURDAY WILL THEN BE UNSEASONABLY COOL BUT
VERY BRIGHT AS SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY OVER THE NORTH AND SUNNY
TO PARTLY CLOUDY DOWNEAST. HIGH PRESSURE BY LATE SATURDAY WILL BE
CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST BUT WILL BE RIDGING NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND KEEPING CONDITIONS COLD AND DRY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY NIGHT
THEN MOVE TO THE EAST OF NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUNDAY NIGHT THEN MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN SNOW INITIALLY
DEVELOPING SUNDAY NIGHT THEN MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO RAIN
DURING THE DAY MONDAY. THE PRECIPITATION IS THEN EXPECTED TO
CHANGE BACK TO SNOW MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE
CHANGE. THE LOW WILL THEN MOVE TO THE EAST OF THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST
WEDNESDAY. HAVE USED THE SUPER BLEND TO POPULATE GRIDS. WILL USE
SURFACE TEMPERATURE TO DELINEATE PRECIPITATION TYPE.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR RESTRICTIONS AT FVE IN LOW CIGS HOWEVER CONFIDENCE
IS LOW THAT -SN WILL IMPACT TERMINAL AND HV LEFT MENTION OUT FOR
NOW. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MVFR -SN AT CAR FOR SEVERAL HRS BTWN 23Z
AND 02Z. IFR RESTRICTIONS LOOKS MORE IMPRESSIVE AT PQI AND HUL
THIS EVENING IN -RASN. BGR AND BHB WILL SEE IFR CIGS THRU END OF
TAF VALID TIME IN -RA, THO MAY SEE BGR MIX WITH -SN AFTER 02Z.

SHORT TERM: MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE DOWNEAST FRIDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE, CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR ON FRIDAY AND REMAIN
VFR THROUGH SATURDAY.EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY. IFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SCA HAS BEEN EXTENDED THRU 18Z THIS AFTERNOON FOR
OFFSHORE WATERS AS SEAS WILL REMAIN 4-6 FT WITH SW WINDS GUSTING
TO NR 30TS. EXPECT SEAS TO DIMINISH FOR A TIME THIS EVENING THEN
INCREASE TOWARD SCA AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: AN SCA MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS FOR LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY FOR WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KT.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...MIGNONE
AVIATION...VJN/BLOOMER
MARINE...VJN/BLOOMER




000
FXUS61 KCAR 261652
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1252 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH QUEBEC THIS
AFTERNOON. A WEAK SECONDARY LOW WILL TRACK THROUGH THE GULF OF
MAINE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
1235 PM UPDATE: MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO FCST HI TEMPS AND FCST HRLY
TEMPS BASED ON 11 AM AND NOON OBS...MOST OF WHICH RESULTED IN
MILDER AFTN TEMPS OVR W CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA. OTHERWISE...NO CHGS
ATTM TO OTHER NEAR REM FCST ELEMENTS.

PREV DISC: STEADY PCPN WILL MV INTO AREA FM THE WEST AFT 18Z IN
THE FORM OF -RA. AS THE AFTN WEARS ON AND COLD AIR FILTERS DOWN FM
THE NORTH EXPECT RA/SN MIX TO BEGIN ACRS THE NW AFTER 22Z AND
PROGRESS SWRD FM THERE THRU THE END OF THE NR TERM. NO OTHER CHGS
NEEDED TO GRIDS AT THIS TIME.

AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT RAIN WL BE TURNING OVR TO SNOW JUST
AS MOISTURE EVACUATES AREA THEREFORE AM NOT EXPECTING MORE THAN
1-2 QUICK INCHES OF SNOW OVR NW CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA...WITH 2-4
INCHES POSSIBLE OVR THE HIGHER TRRN OF THE CNTRL ME HIGHLANDS AND
BAXTER ST PARK. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE N WHERE LESS EVENT QPF AND
OVR DOWNEAST WHERE THE CHG OVR TO SN WILL BE VERY LATE TNGT... AN
INCH OR LESS OF SNFL CAN BE XPCTD.

AS FOR QPF AMNTS OVR DOWNEAST HV TRENDED DOWN ON AMNTS TONIGHT
WITH MODELS TRENDING FURTHER OFFSHORE WITH TRACK OF LOW. MAINLY
LOOKING FOR 0.5-0.75 INCHES FM THIS AFTN THRU 12Z FRIDAY BFR RAIN
HEADS SOUTH AND EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MOISTURE ALONG A COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM A WEAK SECONDARY LOW MAY
PRODUCE SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS DOWNEAST EARLY FRIDAY.
OTHERWISE, FRIDAY WILL BECOME PARTLY SUNNY WITH COOLER DRIER AIR
MOVING IN AHEAD OF COLD HIGH PRESSURE. SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO TREND
CLEARER FRIDAY NIGHT. SATURDAY WILL THEN BE UNSEASONABLY COOL BUT
VERY BRIGHT AS SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY OVER THE NORTH AND SUNNY
TO PARTLY CLOUDY DOWNEAST. HIGH PRESSURE BY LATE SATURDAY WILL BE
CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST BUT WILL BE RIDGING NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND KEEPING CONDITIONS COLD AND DRY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY NIGHT
THEN MOVE TO THE EAST OF NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUNDAY NIGHT THEN MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN SNOW INITIALLY
DEVELOPING SUNDAY NIGHT THEN MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO RAIN
DURING THE DAY MONDAY. THE PRECIPITATION IS THEN EXPECTED TO
CHANGE BACK TO SNOW MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE
CHANGE. THE LOW WILL THEN MOVE TO THE EAST OF THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST
WEDNESDAY. HAVE USED THE SUPER BLEND TO POPULATE GRIDS. WILL USE
SURFACE TEMPERATURE TO DELINEATE PRECIPITATION TYPE.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR RESTRICTIONS AT FVE IN LOW CIGS HOWEVER CONFIDENCE
IS LOW THAT -SN WILL IMPACT TERMINAL AND HV LEFT MENTION OUT FOR
NOW. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MVFR -SN AT CAR FOR SEVERAL HRS BTWN 23Z
AND 02Z. IFR RESTRICTIONS LOOKS MORE IMPRESSIVE AT PQI AND HUL
THIS EVENING IN -RASN. BGR AND BHB WILL SEE IFR CIGS THRU END OF
TAF VALID TIME IN -RA, THO MAY SEE BGR MIX WITH -SN AFTER 02Z.

SHORT TERM: MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE DOWNEAST FRIDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE, CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR ON FRIDAY AND REMAIN
VFR THROUGH SATURDAY.EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY. IFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SCA HAS BEEN EXTENDED THRU 18Z THIS AFTERNOON FOR
OFFSHORE WATERS AS SEAS WILL REMAIN 4-6 FT WITH SW WINDS GUSTING
TO NR 30TS. EXPECT SEAS TO DIMINISH FOR A TIME THIS EVENING THEN
INCREASE TOWARD SCA AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: AN SCA MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS FOR LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY FOR WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KT.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...MIGNONE
AVIATION...VJN/BLOOMER
MARINE...VJN/BLOOMER




000
FXUS61 KCAR 261652
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1252 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH QUEBEC THIS
AFTERNOON. A WEAK SECONDARY LOW WILL TRACK THROUGH THE GULF OF
MAINE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
1235 PM UPDATE: MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO FCST HI TEMPS AND FCST HRLY
TEMPS BASED ON 11 AM AND NOON OBS...MOST OF WHICH RESULTED IN
MILDER AFTN TEMPS OVR W CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA. OTHERWISE...NO CHGS
ATTM TO OTHER NEAR REM FCST ELEMENTS.

PREV DISC: STEADY PCPN WILL MV INTO AREA FM THE WEST AFT 18Z IN
THE FORM OF -RA. AS THE AFTN WEARS ON AND COLD AIR FILTERS DOWN FM
THE NORTH EXPECT RA/SN MIX TO BEGIN ACRS THE NW AFTER 22Z AND
PROGRESS SWRD FM THERE THRU THE END OF THE NR TERM. NO OTHER CHGS
NEEDED TO GRIDS AT THIS TIME.

AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT RAIN WL BE TURNING OVR TO SNOW JUST
AS MOISTURE EVACUATES AREA THEREFORE AM NOT EXPECTING MORE THAN
1-2 QUICK INCHES OF SNOW OVR NW CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA...WITH 2-4
INCHES POSSIBLE OVR THE HIGHER TRRN OF THE CNTRL ME HIGHLANDS AND
BAXTER ST PARK. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE N WHERE LESS EVENT QPF AND
OVR DOWNEAST WHERE THE CHG OVR TO SN WILL BE VERY LATE TNGT... AN
INCH OR LESS OF SNFL CAN BE XPCTD.

AS FOR QPF AMNTS OVR DOWNEAST HV TRENDED DOWN ON AMNTS TONIGHT
WITH MODELS TRENDING FURTHER OFFSHORE WITH TRACK OF LOW. MAINLY
LOOKING FOR 0.5-0.75 INCHES FM THIS AFTN THRU 12Z FRIDAY BFR RAIN
HEADS SOUTH AND EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MOISTURE ALONG A COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM A WEAK SECONDARY LOW MAY
PRODUCE SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS DOWNEAST EARLY FRIDAY.
OTHERWISE, FRIDAY WILL BECOME PARTLY SUNNY WITH COOLER DRIER AIR
MOVING IN AHEAD OF COLD HIGH PRESSURE. SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO TREND
CLEARER FRIDAY NIGHT. SATURDAY WILL THEN BE UNSEASONABLY COOL BUT
VERY BRIGHT AS SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY OVER THE NORTH AND SUNNY
TO PARTLY CLOUDY DOWNEAST. HIGH PRESSURE BY LATE SATURDAY WILL BE
CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST BUT WILL BE RIDGING NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND KEEPING CONDITIONS COLD AND DRY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY NIGHT
THEN MOVE TO THE EAST OF NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUNDAY NIGHT THEN MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN SNOW INITIALLY
DEVELOPING SUNDAY NIGHT THEN MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO RAIN
DURING THE DAY MONDAY. THE PRECIPITATION IS THEN EXPECTED TO
CHANGE BACK TO SNOW MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE
CHANGE. THE LOW WILL THEN MOVE TO THE EAST OF THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST
WEDNESDAY. HAVE USED THE SUPER BLEND TO POPULATE GRIDS. WILL USE
SURFACE TEMPERATURE TO DELINEATE PRECIPITATION TYPE.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR RESTRICTIONS AT FVE IN LOW CIGS HOWEVER CONFIDENCE
IS LOW THAT -SN WILL IMPACT TERMINAL AND HV LEFT MENTION OUT FOR
NOW. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MVFR -SN AT CAR FOR SEVERAL HRS BTWN 23Z
AND 02Z. IFR RESTRICTIONS LOOKS MORE IMPRESSIVE AT PQI AND HUL
THIS EVENING IN -RASN. BGR AND BHB WILL SEE IFR CIGS THRU END OF
TAF VALID TIME IN -RA, THO MAY SEE BGR MIX WITH -SN AFTER 02Z.

SHORT TERM: MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE DOWNEAST FRIDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE, CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR ON FRIDAY AND REMAIN
VFR THROUGH SATURDAY.EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY. IFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SCA HAS BEEN EXTENDED THRU 18Z THIS AFTERNOON FOR
OFFSHORE WATERS AS SEAS WILL REMAIN 4-6 FT WITH SW WINDS GUSTING
TO NR 30TS. EXPECT SEAS TO DIMINISH FOR A TIME THIS EVENING THEN
INCREASE TOWARD SCA AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: AN SCA MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS FOR LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY FOR WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KT.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...MIGNONE
AVIATION...VJN/BLOOMER
MARINE...VJN/BLOOMER




000
FXUS61 KCAR 261652
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1252 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH QUEBEC THIS
AFTERNOON. A WEAK SECONDARY LOW WILL TRACK THROUGH THE GULF OF
MAINE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
1235 PM UPDATE: MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO FCST HI TEMPS AND FCST HRLY
TEMPS BASED ON 11 AM AND NOON OBS...MOST OF WHICH RESULTED IN
MILDER AFTN TEMPS OVR W CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA. OTHERWISE...NO CHGS
ATTM TO OTHER NEAR REM FCST ELEMENTS.

PREV DISC: STEADY PCPN WILL MV INTO AREA FM THE WEST AFT 18Z IN
THE FORM OF -RA. AS THE AFTN WEARS ON AND COLD AIR FILTERS DOWN FM
THE NORTH EXPECT RA/SN MIX TO BEGIN ACRS THE NW AFTER 22Z AND
PROGRESS SWRD FM THERE THRU THE END OF THE NR TERM. NO OTHER CHGS
NEEDED TO GRIDS AT THIS TIME.

AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT RAIN WL BE TURNING OVR TO SNOW JUST
AS MOISTURE EVACUATES AREA THEREFORE AM NOT EXPECTING MORE THAN
1-2 QUICK INCHES OF SNOW OVR NW CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA...WITH 2-4
INCHES POSSIBLE OVR THE HIGHER TRRN OF THE CNTRL ME HIGHLANDS AND
BAXTER ST PARK. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE N WHERE LESS EVENT QPF AND
OVR DOWNEAST WHERE THE CHG OVR TO SN WILL BE VERY LATE TNGT... AN
INCH OR LESS OF SNFL CAN BE XPCTD.

AS FOR QPF AMNTS OVR DOWNEAST HV TRENDED DOWN ON AMNTS TONIGHT
WITH MODELS TRENDING FURTHER OFFSHORE WITH TRACK OF LOW. MAINLY
LOOKING FOR 0.5-0.75 INCHES FM THIS AFTN THRU 12Z FRIDAY BFR RAIN
HEADS SOUTH AND EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MOISTURE ALONG A COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM A WEAK SECONDARY LOW MAY
PRODUCE SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS DOWNEAST EARLY FRIDAY.
OTHERWISE, FRIDAY WILL BECOME PARTLY SUNNY WITH COOLER DRIER AIR
MOVING IN AHEAD OF COLD HIGH PRESSURE. SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO TREND
CLEARER FRIDAY NIGHT. SATURDAY WILL THEN BE UNSEASONABLY COOL BUT
VERY BRIGHT AS SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY OVER THE NORTH AND SUNNY
TO PARTLY CLOUDY DOWNEAST. HIGH PRESSURE BY LATE SATURDAY WILL BE
CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST BUT WILL BE RIDGING NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND KEEPING CONDITIONS COLD AND DRY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY NIGHT
THEN MOVE TO THE EAST OF NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUNDAY NIGHT THEN MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN SNOW INITIALLY
DEVELOPING SUNDAY NIGHT THEN MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO RAIN
DURING THE DAY MONDAY. THE PRECIPITATION IS THEN EXPECTED TO
CHANGE BACK TO SNOW MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE
CHANGE. THE LOW WILL THEN MOVE TO THE EAST OF THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST
WEDNESDAY. HAVE USED THE SUPER BLEND TO POPULATE GRIDS. WILL USE
SURFACE TEMPERATURE TO DELINEATE PRECIPITATION TYPE.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR RESTRICTIONS AT FVE IN LOW CIGS HOWEVER CONFIDENCE
IS LOW THAT -SN WILL IMPACT TERMINAL AND HV LEFT MENTION OUT FOR
NOW. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MVFR -SN AT CAR FOR SEVERAL HRS BTWN 23Z
AND 02Z. IFR RESTRICTIONS LOOKS MORE IMPRESSIVE AT PQI AND HUL
THIS EVENING IN -RASN. BGR AND BHB WILL SEE IFR CIGS THRU END OF
TAF VALID TIME IN -RA, THO MAY SEE BGR MIX WITH -SN AFTER 02Z.

SHORT TERM: MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE DOWNEAST FRIDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE, CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR ON FRIDAY AND REMAIN
VFR THROUGH SATURDAY.EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY. IFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SCA HAS BEEN EXTENDED THRU 18Z THIS AFTERNOON FOR
OFFSHORE WATERS AS SEAS WILL REMAIN 4-6 FT WITH SW WINDS GUSTING
TO NR 30TS. EXPECT SEAS TO DIMINISH FOR A TIME THIS EVENING THEN
INCREASE TOWARD SCA AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: AN SCA MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS FOR LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY FOR WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KT.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...MIGNONE
AVIATION...VJN/BLOOMER
MARINE...VJN/BLOOMER




000
FXUS61 KCAR 261434
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1034 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH QUEBEC TODAY. A
WEAK SECONDARY LOW WILL TRACK THROUGH THE GULF OF MAINE TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
1010 AM UPDATE: CHGS THIS UPDATE INCLUDED MODIFYING POPS THRU TNGT
USING THE POPS FROM QPF NEAR TERM TOOL AND FCST HRLY TEMPS USING A
COMBO OF OBSVD TEMPS IN THE NOW TERM AND COMBINED RAW MODEL TEMPS
LATER THIS AFTN INTO TNGT. ONE FACTOR NOTED THIS MORN...THAT OBSVD
TEMPS ALF IN THE 950-850MB LAYER WERE NOT AS COLD AS THE GFS MODEL
INDICATES. THIS COULD RESULT IN A BIT OF A LAG IN THE CHGOVR TO SN
VERY LATE THIS AFTN AND ERLY EVE BEGINNING OVR THE CNTRL ME
HIGHLANDS COMPARED TO THE LAST FCST UPDATE. FCST SNOW AMOUNTS LATE
TDY THRU TNGT WERE ADJUSTED TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS...RESULTING IN A
LITTLE LESS EVENT TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES OVR THE
HIGHLANDS OF NW CNTRL ME WITH LESSER AMOUNTS N AND DOWNEAST FOR
REASONS ALLUDED TO IN THE ORGNL NEAR TERN DISC.

ORGNL DISC: STEADY PCPN WILL MV INTO AREA FM THE WEST AFT 18Z IN
THE FORM OF -RA. AS THE AFTN WEARS ON AND COLD AIR FILTERS DOWN FM
THE NORTH EXPECT RA/SN MIX TO BEGIN ACRS THE NW AFTER 22Z AND
PROGRESS SWRD FM THERE THRU THE END OF THE NR TERM. NO OTHER CHGS
NEEDED TO GRIDS AT THIS TIME.

AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT RAIN WL BE TURNING OVR TO SNOW JUST
AS MOISTURE EVACUATES AREA THEREFORE AM NOT EXPECTING MORE THAN
1-2 QUICK INCHES OF SNOW OVR NW CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA...WITH 2-4
INCHES POSSIBLE OVR THE HIGHER TRRN OF THE CNTRL ME HIGHLANDS AND
BAXTER ST PARK. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE N WHERE LESS EVENT QPF AND
OVR DOWNEAST WHERE THE CHG OVR TO SN WILL BE VERY LATE TNGT... AN
INCH OR LESS OF SNFL CAN BE XPCTD.

AS FOR QPF AMNTS OVR DOWNEAST HV TRENDED DOWN ON AMNTS TONIGHT
WITH MODELS TRENDING FURTHER OFFSHORE WITH TRACK OF LOW. MAINLY
LOOKING FOR 0.5-0.75 INCHES FM THIS AFTN THRU 12Z FRIDAY BFR RAIN
HEADS SOUTH AND EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MOISTURE ALONG A COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM A WEAK SECONDARY LOW MAY
PRODUCE SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS DOWNEAST EARLY FRIDAY.
OTHERWISE, FRIDAY WILL BECOME PARTLY SUNNY WITH COOLER DRIER AIR
MOVING IN AHEAD OF COLD HIGH PRESSURE. SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO TREND
CLEARER FRIDAY NIGHT. SATURDAY WILL THEN BE UNSEASONABLY COOL BUT
VERY BRIGHT AS SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY OVER THE NORTH AND SUNNY
TO PARTLY CLOUDY DOWNEAST. HIGH PRESSURE BY LATE SATURDAY WILL BE
CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST BUT WILL BE RIDGING NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND KEEPING CONDITIONS COLD AND DRY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY NIGHT
THEN MOVE TO THE EAST OF NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUNDAY NIGHT THEN MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN SNOW INITIALLY
DEVELOPING SUNDAY NIGHT THEN MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO RAIN
DURING THE DAY MONDAY. THE PRECIPITATION IS THEN EXPECTED TO
CHANGE BACK TO SNOW MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE
CHANGE. THE LOW WILL THEN MOVE TO THE EAST OF THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST
WEDNESDAY. HAVE USED THE SUPER BLEND TO POPULATE GRIDS. WILL USE
SURFACE TEMPERATURE TO DELINEATE PRECIPITATION TYPE.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR RESTRICTIONS AT FVE IN LOW CIGS HOWEVER CONFIDENCE
IS LOW THAT -SN WILL IMPACT TERMINAL AND HV LEFT MENTION OUT FOR
NOW. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MVFR -SN AT CAR FOR SEVERAL HRS BTWN 23Z
AND 02Z. IFR RESTRICTIONS LOOKS MORE IMPRESSIVE AT PQI AND HUL
THIS EVENING IN -RASN. BGR AND BHB WILL SEE IFR CIGS THRU END OF
TAF VALID TIME IN -RA, THO MAY SEE BGR MIX WITH -SN AFTER 02Z.

SHORT TERM: MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE DOWNEAST FRIDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE, CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR ON FRIDAY AND REMAIN
VFR THROUGH SATURDAY.EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY. IFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SCA HAS BEEN EXTENDED THRU 18Z THIS AFTERNOON FOR
OFFSHORE WATERS AS SEAS WILL REMAIN 4-6 FT WITH SW WINDS GUSTING
TO NR 30TS. EXPECT SEAS TO DIMINISH FOR A TIME THIS EVENING THEN
INCREASE TOWARD SCA AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: AN SCA MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS FOR LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY FOR WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KT.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ050-
     051.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...MIGNONE
AVIATION...VJN/BLOOMER
MARINE...VJN/BLOOMER



000
FXUS61 KCAR 261434
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1034 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH QUEBEC TODAY. A
WEAK SECONDARY LOW WILL TRACK THROUGH THE GULF OF MAINE TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
1010 AM UPDATE: CHGS THIS UPDATE INCLUDED MODIFYING POPS THRU TNGT
USING THE POPS FROM QPF NEAR TERM TOOL AND FCST HRLY TEMPS USING A
COMBO OF OBSVD TEMPS IN THE NOW TERM AND COMBINED RAW MODEL TEMPS
LATER THIS AFTN INTO TNGT. ONE FACTOR NOTED THIS MORN...THAT OBSVD
TEMPS ALF IN THE 950-850MB LAYER WERE NOT AS COLD AS THE GFS MODEL
INDICATES. THIS COULD RESULT IN A BIT OF A LAG IN THE CHGOVR TO SN
VERY LATE THIS AFTN AND ERLY EVE BEGINNING OVR THE CNTRL ME
HIGHLANDS COMPARED TO THE LAST FCST UPDATE. FCST SNOW AMOUNTS LATE
TDY THRU TNGT WERE ADJUSTED TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS...RESULTING IN A
LITTLE LESS EVENT TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES OVR THE
HIGHLANDS OF NW CNTRL ME WITH LESSER AMOUNTS N AND DOWNEAST FOR
REASONS ALLUDED TO IN THE ORGNL NEAR TERN DISC.

ORGNL DISC: STEADY PCPN WILL MV INTO AREA FM THE WEST AFT 18Z IN
THE FORM OF -RA. AS THE AFTN WEARS ON AND COLD AIR FILTERS DOWN FM
THE NORTH EXPECT RA/SN MIX TO BEGIN ACRS THE NW AFTER 22Z AND
PROGRESS SWRD FM THERE THRU THE END OF THE NR TERM. NO OTHER CHGS
NEEDED TO GRIDS AT THIS TIME.

AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT RAIN WL BE TURNING OVR TO SNOW JUST
AS MOISTURE EVACUATES AREA THEREFORE AM NOT EXPECTING MORE THAN
1-2 QUICK INCHES OF SNOW OVR NW CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA...WITH 2-4
INCHES POSSIBLE OVR THE HIGHER TRRN OF THE CNTRL ME HIGHLANDS AND
BAXTER ST PARK. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE N WHERE LESS EVENT QPF AND
OVR DOWNEAST WHERE THE CHG OVR TO SN WILL BE VERY LATE TNGT... AN
INCH OR LESS OF SNFL CAN BE XPCTD.

AS FOR QPF AMNTS OVR DOWNEAST HV TRENDED DOWN ON AMNTS TONIGHT
WITH MODELS TRENDING FURTHER OFFSHORE WITH TRACK OF LOW. MAINLY
LOOKING FOR 0.5-0.75 INCHES FM THIS AFTN THRU 12Z FRIDAY BFR RAIN
HEADS SOUTH AND EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MOISTURE ALONG A COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM A WEAK SECONDARY LOW MAY
PRODUCE SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS DOWNEAST EARLY FRIDAY.
OTHERWISE, FRIDAY WILL BECOME PARTLY SUNNY WITH COOLER DRIER AIR
MOVING IN AHEAD OF COLD HIGH PRESSURE. SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO TREND
CLEARER FRIDAY NIGHT. SATURDAY WILL THEN BE UNSEASONABLY COOL BUT
VERY BRIGHT AS SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY OVER THE NORTH AND SUNNY
TO PARTLY CLOUDY DOWNEAST. HIGH PRESSURE BY LATE SATURDAY WILL BE
CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST BUT WILL BE RIDGING NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND KEEPING CONDITIONS COLD AND DRY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY NIGHT
THEN MOVE TO THE EAST OF NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUNDAY NIGHT THEN MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN SNOW INITIALLY
DEVELOPING SUNDAY NIGHT THEN MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO RAIN
DURING THE DAY MONDAY. THE PRECIPITATION IS THEN EXPECTED TO
CHANGE BACK TO SNOW MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE
CHANGE. THE LOW WILL THEN MOVE TO THE EAST OF THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST
WEDNESDAY. HAVE USED THE SUPER BLEND TO POPULATE GRIDS. WILL USE
SURFACE TEMPERATURE TO DELINEATE PRECIPITATION TYPE.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR RESTRICTIONS AT FVE IN LOW CIGS HOWEVER CONFIDENCE
IS LOW THAT -SN WILL IMPACT TERMINAL AND HV LEFT MENTION OUT FOR
NOW. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MVFR -SN AT CAR FOR SEVERAL HRS BTWN 23Z
AND 02Z. IFR RESTRICTIONS LOOKS MORE IMPRESSIVE AT PQI AND HUL
THIS EVENING IN -RASN. BGR AND BHB WILL SEE IFR CIGS THRU END OF
TAF VALID TIME IN -RA, THO MAY SEE BGR MIX WITH -SN AFTER 02Z.

SHORT TERM: MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE DOWNEAST FRIDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE, CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR ON FRIDAY AND REMAIN
VFR THROUGH SATURDAY.EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY. IFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SCA HAS BEEN EXTENDED THRU 18Z THIS AFTERNOON FOR
OFFSHORE WATERS AS SEAS WILL REMAIN 4-6 FT WITH SW WINDS GUSTING
TO NR 30TS. EXPECT SEAS TO DIMINISH FOR A TIME THIS EVENING THEN
INCREASE TOWARD SCA AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: AN SCA MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS FOR LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY FOR WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KT.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ050-
     051.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...MIGNONE
AVIATION...VJN/BLOOMER
MARINE...VJN/BLOOMER



000
FXUS61 KCAR 261434
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1034 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH QUEBEC TODAY. A
WEAK SECONDARY LOW WILL TRACK THROUGH THE GULF OF MAINE TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
1010 AM UPDATE: CHGS THIS UPDATE INCLUDED MODIFYING POPS THRU TNGT
USING THE POPS FROM QPF NEAR TERM TOOL AND FCST HRLY TEMPS USING A
COMBO OF OBSVD TEMPS IN THE NOW TERM AND COMBINED RAW MODEL TEMPS
LATER THIS AFTN INTO TNGT. ONE FACTOR NOTED THIS MORN...THAT OBSVD
TEMPS ALF IN THE 950-850MB LAYER WERE NOT AS COLD AS THE GFS MODEL
INDICATES. THIS COULD RESULT IN A BIT OF A LAG IN THE CHGOVR TO SN
VERY LATE THIS AFTN AND ERLY EVE BEGINNING OVR THE CNTRL ME
HIGHLANDS COMPARED TO THE LAST FCST UPDATE. FCST SNOW AMOUNTS LATE
TDY THRU TNGT WERE ADJUSTED TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS...RESULTING IN A
LITTLE LESS EVENT TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES OVR THE
HIGHLANDS OF NW CNTRL ME WITH LESSER AMOUNTS N AND DOWNEAST FOR
REASONS ALLUDED TO IN THE ORGNL NEAR TERN DISC.

ORGNL DISC: STEADY PCPN WILL MV INTO AREA FM THE WEST AFT 18Z IN
THE FORM OF -RA. AS THE AFTN WEARS ON AND COLD AIR FILTERS DOWN FM
THE NORTH EXPECT RA/SN MIX TO BEGIN ACRS THE NW AFTER 22Z AND
PROGRESS SWRD FM THERE THRU THE END OF THE NR TERM. NO OTHER CHGS
NEEDED TO GRIDS AT THIS TIME.

AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT RAIN WL BE TURNING OVR TO SNOW JUST
AS MOISTURE EVACUATES AREA THEREFORE AM NOT EXPECTING MORE THAN
1-2 QUICK INCHES OF SNOW OVR NW CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA...WITH 2-4
INCHES POSSIBLE OVR THE HIGHER TRRN OF THE CNTRL ME HIGHLANDS AND
BAXTER ST PARK. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE N WHERE LESS EVENT QPF AND
OVR DOWNEAST WHERE THE CHG OVR TO SN WILL BE VERY LATE TNGT... AN
INCH OR LESS OF SNFL CAN BE XPCTD.

AS FOR QPF AMNTS OVR DOWNEAST HV TRENDED DOWN ON AMNTS TONIGHT
WITH MODELS TRENDING FURTHER OFFSHORE WITH TRACK OF LOW. MAINLY
LOOKING FOR 0.5-0.75 INCHES FM THIS AFTN THRU 12Z FRIDAY BFR RAIN
HEADS SOUTH AND EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MOISTURE ALONG A COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM A WEAK SECONDARY LOW MAY
PRODUCE SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS DOWNEAST EARLY FRIDAY.
OTHERWISE, FRIDAY WILL BECOME PARTLY SUNNY WITH COOLER DRIER AIR
MOVING IN AHEAD OF COLD HIGH PRESSURE. SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO TREND
CLEARER FRIDAY NIGHT. SATURDAY WILL THEN BE UNSEASONABLY COOL BUT
VERY BRIGHT AS SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY OVER THE NORTH AND SUNNY
TO PARTLY CLOUDY DOWNEAST. HIGH PRESSURE BY LATE SATURDAY WILL BE
CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST BUT WILL BE RIDGING NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND KEEPING CONDITIONS COLD AND DRY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY NIGHT
THEN MOVE TO THE EAST OF NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUNDAY NIGHT THEN MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN SNOW INITIALLY
DEVELOPING SUNDAY NIGHT THEN MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO RAIN
DURING THE DAY MONDAY. THE PRECIPITATION IS THEN EXPECTED TO
CHANGE BACK TO SNOW MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE
CHANGE. THE LOW WILL THEN MOVE TO THE EAST OF THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST
WEDNESDAY. HAVE USED THE SUPER BLEND TO POPULATE GRIDS. WILL USE
SURFACE TEMPERATURE TO DELINEATE PRECIPITATION TYPE.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR RESTRICTIONS AT FVE IN LOW CIGS HOWEVER CONFIDENCE
IS LOW THAT -SN WILL IMPACT TERMINAL AND HV LEFT MENTION OUT FOR
NOW. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MVFR -SN AT CAR FOR SEVERAL HRS BTWN 23Z
AND 02Z. IFR RESTRICTIONS LOOKS MORE IMPRESSIVE AT PQI AND HUL
THIS EVENING IN -RASN. BGR AND BHB WILL SEE IFR CIGS THRU END OF
TAF VALID TIME IN -RA, THO MAY SEE BGR MIX WITH -SN AFTER 02Z.

SHORT TERM: MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE DOWNEAST FRIDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE, CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR ON FRIDAY AND REMAIN
VFR THROUGH SATURDAY.EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY. IFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SCA HAS BEEN EXTENDED THRU 18Z THIS AFTERNOON FOR
OFFSHORE WATERS AS SEAS WILL REMAIN 4-6 FT WITH SW WINDS GUSTING
TO NR 30TS. EXPECT SEAS TO DIMINISH FOR A TIME THIS EVENING THEN
INCREASE TOWARD SCA AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: AN SCA MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS FOR LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY FOR WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KT.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ050-
     051.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...MIGNONE
AVIATION...VJN/BLOOMER
MARINE...VJN/BLOOMER



000
FXUS61 KCAR 261434
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1034 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH QUEBEC TODAY. A
WEAK SECONDARY LOW WILL TRACK THROUGH THE GULF OF MAINE TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
1010 AM UPDATE: CHGS THIS UPDATE INCLUDED MODIFYING POPS THRU TNGT
USING THE POPS FROM QPF NEAR TERM TOOL AND FCST HRLY TEMPS USING A
COMBO OF OBSVD TEMPS IN THE NOW TERM AND COMBINED RAW MODEL TEMPS
LATER THIS AFTN INTO TNGT. ONE FACTOR NOTED THIS MORN...THAT OBSVD
TEMPS ALF IN THE 950-850MB LAYER WERE NOT AS COLD AS THE GFS MODEL
INDICATES. THIS COULD RESULT IN A BIT OF A LAG IN THE CHGOVR TO SN
VERY LATE THIS AFTN AND ERLY EVE BEGINNING OVR THE CNTRL ME
HIGHLANDS COMPARED TO THE LAST FCST UPDATE. FCST SNOW AMOUNTS LATE
TDY THRU TNGT WERE ADJUSTED TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS...RESULTING IN A
LITTLE LESS EVENT TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES OVR THE
HIGHLANDS OF NW CNTRL ME WITH LESSER AMOUNTS N AND DOWNEAST FOR
REASONS ALLUDED TO IN THE ORGNL NEAR TERN DISC.

ORGNL DISC: STEADY PCPN WILL MV INTO AREA FM THE WEST AFT 18Z IN
THE FORM OF -RA. AS THE AFTN WEARS ON AND COLD AIR FILTERS DOWN FM
THE NORTH EXPECT RA/SN MIX TO BEGIN ACRS THE NW AFTER 22Z AND
PROGRESS SWRD FM THERE THRU THE END OF THE NR TERM. NO OTHER CHGS
NEEDED TO GRIDS AT THIS TIME.

AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT RAIN WL BE TURNING OVR TO SNOW JUST
AS MOISTURE EVACUATES AREA THEREFORE AM NOT EXPECTING MORE THAN
1-2 QUICK INCHES OF SNOW OVR NW CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA...WITH 2-4
INCHES POSSIBLE OVR THE HIGHER TRRN OF THE CNTRL ME HIGHLANDS AND
BAXTER ST PARK. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE N WHERE LESS EVENT QPF AND
OVR DOWNEAST WHERE THE CHG OVR TO SN WILL BE VERY LATE TNGT... AN
INCH OR LESS OF SNFL CAN BE XPCTD.

AS FOR QPF AMNTS OVR DOWNEAST HV TRENDED DOWN ON AMNTS TONIGHT
WITH MODELS TRENDING FURTHER OFFSHORE WITH TRACK OF LOW. MAINLY
LOOKING FOR 0.5-0.75 INCHES FM THIS AFTN THRU 12Z FRIDAY BFR RAIN
HEADS SOUTH AND EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MOISTURE ALONG A COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM A WEAK SECONDARY LOW MAY
PRODUCE SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS DOWNEAST EARLY FRIDAY.
OTHERWISE, FRIDAY WILL BECOME PARTLY SUNNY WITH COOLER DRIER AIR
MOVING IN AHEAD OF COLD HIGH PRESSURE. SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO TREND
CLEARER FRIDAY NIGHT. SATURDAY WILL THEN BE UNSEASONABLY COOL BUT
VERY BRIGHT AS SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY OVER THE NORTH AND SUNNY
TO PARTLY CLOUDY DOWNEAST. HIGH PRESSURE BY LATE SATURDAY WILL BE
CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST BUT WILL BE RIDGING NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND KEEPING CONDITIONS COLD AND DRY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY NIGHT
THEN MOVE TO THE EAST OF NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUNDAY NIGHT THEN MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN SNOW INITIALLY
DEVELOPING SUNDAY NIGHT THEN MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO RAIN
DURING THE DAY MONDAY. THE PRECIPITATION IS THEN EXPECTED TO
CHANGE BACK TO SNOW MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE
CHANGE. THE LOW WILL THEN MOVE TO THE EAST OF THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST
WEDNESDAY. HAVE USED THE SUPER BLEND TO POPULATE GRIDS. WILL USE
SURFACE TEMPERATURE TO DELINEATE PRECIPITATION TYPE.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR RESTRICTIONS AT FVE IN LOW CIGS HOWEVER CONFIDENCE
IS LOW THAT -SN WILL IMPACT TERMINAL AND HV LEFT MENTION OUT FOR
NOW. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MVFR -SN AT CAR FOR SEVERAL HRS BTWN 23Z
AND 02Z. IFR RESTRICTIONS LOOKS MORE IMPRESSIVE AT PQI AND HUL
THIS EVENING IN -RASN. BGR AND BHB WILL SEE IFR CIGS THRU END OF
TAF VALID TIME IN -RA, THO MAY SEE BGR MIX WITH -SN AFTER 02Z.

SHORT TERM: MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE DOWNEAST FRIDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE, CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR ON FRIDAY AND REMAIN
VFR THROUGH SATURDAY.EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY. IFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SCA HAS BEEN EXTENDED THRU 18Z THIS AFTERNOON FOR
OFFSHORE WATERS AS SEAS WILL REMAIN 4-6 FT WITH SW WINDS GUSTING
TO NR 30TS. EXPECT SEAS TO DIMINISH FOR A TIME THIS EVENING THEN
INCREASE TOWARD SCA AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: AN SCA MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS FOR LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY FOR WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KT.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ050-
     051.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...MIGNONE
AVIATION...VJN/BLOOMER
MARINE...VJN/BLOOMER



000
FXUS61 KGYX 261415
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1015 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OUT OF THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY
TODAY AND MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE REGION FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS QUEBEC ON MONDAY
AND WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN BUILDS OVER THE AREA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
10 AM UPDATE: LARGE AREA OF SUBSIDENCE IN WARM SECTOR ACROSS MUCH
OF NH AND INTO WESTERN MAINE ALLOWING SKIES TO GO MOSTLY SUNNY FOR
A WHILE. THIS WILL MEAN TEMPERATURES WILL JUMP AND MAY REACH A
FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN FORECAST INTO WESTERN AND SOUTHERN MAINE
SO MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS. ALSO ADJUSTED SKY COVER TO ALLOW FOR THE
CLEAR SLOT DEVELOPING THAT SHOWS UP NICELY ON THE VISIBLE SAT PIX.
ALSO TOOK OUT POPS FOR THE REST OF THE MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON. TIMING OF PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO ONSET BETWEEN MID-LATE
AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST.

630 AM UPDATE...VERY LITTLE CHANGE
TO THE GOING FORECAST. CLOUDY WITH SOME FOG BUT RAIN-FREE FOR MUCH
OF THIS MORNING.

PREVIOUSLY...

WARM FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING AND THEN BEGIN
TO MOVE BACK SOUTH AS A COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ZONES. AT THE SAME TIME A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY WILL APPROACH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS MORNING
SHOULD BE OK WEATHERWISE...MOSTLY DRY WITH A FEW BREAKS OF SUN NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION. TEMPERATURES SHOULD PUSH INTO THE 45-55 RANGE
ACROSS THE AREA BY LATE MORNING WITH 60 NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE
QUESTION IF THE SUN BREAKS OUT ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHERN
NEW HAMPSHIRE. RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM WEST TO TO EAST
BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH THE STEADIEST RAINFALL OCCURRING LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. COLDER AIR WILL FILTER IN FROM THE SOUTH
LATER THIS AFTERNOON IN THE NORTH AND MAY CHANGE THE RAIN OVER TO
SNOW BY DARK AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE COLUMN WILL COOL ENOUGH FOR ANY RAIN TO CHANGE TO SNOW ACROSS
FAR NORTHERN MOUNTAINS ZONES BY EARLY EVENING. THE CHANGEOVER WILL
TAKE LONGER AT LOWER ELEVATIONS UP THERE. WE HAVE A FORECAST OF 3
TO 6 INCHES TONIGHT FOR THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS NEAR THE CANADIAN
BORDER IN NH AND THE WESTERN ME MOUNTAINS. AT LOWER ELEVATIONS
SUCH AS HIE AND BML...A COUPLE OF SLUSHY INCHES MAY FALL. FURTHER
SOUTH IN THE FOOTHILLS AND INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL PLAIN
AS WELL AS THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL NH...A CHANGE TO
SNOW BEFORE ENDING LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY MORNING IS NOT
COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION. IF THE COLD AIR COMES IN FAST
ENOUGH THESE AREAS COULD GET A SLUSHY COATING.

ANY LINGER LIGHT PRECIPITATION ON THE COASTAL PLAIN AND ACROSS
SOUTHERN NH WILL COME TO AN END FRIDAY MORNING. PARTIAL SUNSHINE
SHOULD RETURN TO AT LEAST NORTHERN ZONES AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE LONG WAVE PATTERN
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHILE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF INDIVIDUAL
SHORTWAVES DIFFER MARKEDLY AFTER SUNDAY WITH BELOW NORMAL
CONFIDENCE IN SENSIBLE WEATHER AFTER EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN BELOW NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD...AS
THE MEAN JET POSITION WILL BE TO OUR SOUTH. WE BEGIN THE PERIOD
WITH A DEEP UPPER TROUGH TO OUR WEST. THE TROUGH WILL SLIDE EAST...AND
PROVIDE A FEW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO THE
AREA INTO SATURDAY...BEFORE EXITING THE COAST. RIDGING SURFACE
AND ALOFT PROVIDES A QUIET...SUNNY...BUT SEASONABLY COOL DAY FOR
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE DIVES QUICKLY
SOUTHEAST WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW AND TRAILING COLD FRONT
TO CROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY. OVER THE PAST SEVERAL MODEL
RUNS...THE GFS HAS COME AROUND TO THE MORE PROGRESSIVE ECMWF/CMC-
GLOBAL SOLUTIONS WITH THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...IFR CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS AND FOG SHOULD IMPROVE
THIS MORNING TO AT LEAST MVFR IF NOT VFR FOR A FEW HOURS. IFR OR
LOWER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
IN RAIN...WITH SNOW AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS NORTHERN NH AND
THE WESTERN ME MOUNTAINS. VFR RETURNS ON FRIDAY.

LONG TERM...

SAT...SCT MVFR PSBL IN MTN RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...
10 AM UPDATE: HAVE DROPPED THE SCA FOR THE OUTER WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THIS MORNING. WINDS
AND SEAS WILL SUBSIDE AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES AND INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. HOWEVER...SEAS WILL ONCE AGAIN BUILD TO SCA
LEVELS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AND ANOTHER SCA WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE
ISSUED.

LONG TERM...

SAT...SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND SEAS ARE POSSIBLE.

MON...GALE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WARMER WEATHER AND ONE HALF TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF RAIN
WILL INDUCE SOME RUNOFF THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WE WILL
LIKELY SEE SOME RISES ON SOUTHERN RIVERS. AT THE CURRENT TIME WE
DO NOT EXPECT ANY BIG ISSUES. PERHAPS SOME MINOR POOR DRAINAGE
FLOODING LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER...WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR FOR ICE MOVEMENT ON RIVERS AND STREAMS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 11 PM THIS
     EVENING TO NOON EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ153-154.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KGYX 261415
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1015 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OUT OF THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY
TODAY AND MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE REGION FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS QUEBEC ON MONDAY
AND WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN BUILDS OVER THE AREA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
10 AM UPDATE: LARGE AREA OF SUBSIDENCE IN WARM SECTOR ACROSS MUCH
OF NH AND INTO WESTERN MAINE ALLOWING SKIES TO GO MOSTLY SUNNY FOR
A WHILE. THIS WILL MEAN TEMPERATURES WILL JUMP AND MAY REACH A
FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN FORECAST INTO WESTERN AND SOUTHERN MAINE
SO MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS. ALSO ADJUSTED SKY COVER TO ALLOW FOR THE
CLEAR SLOT DEVELOPING THAT SHOWS UP NICELY ON THE VISIBLE SAT PIX.
ALSO TOOK OUT POPS FOR THE REST OF THE MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON. TIMING OF PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO ONSET BETWEEN MID-LATE
AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST.

630 AM UPDATE...VERY LITTLE CHANGE
TO THE GOING FORECAST. CLOUDY WITH SOME FOG BUT RAIN-FREE FOR MUCH
OF THIS MORNING.

PREVIOUSLY...

WARM FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING AND THEN BEGIN
TO MOVE BACK SOUTH AS A COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ZONES. AT THE SAME TIME A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY WILL APPROACH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS MORNING
SHOULD BE OK WEATHERWISE...MOSTLY DRY WITH A FEW BREAKS OF SUN NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION. TEMPERATURES SHOULD PUSH INTO THE 45-55 RANGE
ACROSS THE AREA BY LATE MORNING WITH 60 NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE
QUESTION IF THE SUN BREAKS OUT ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHERN
NEW HAMPSHIRE. RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM WEST TO TO EAST
BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH THE STEADIEST RAINFALL OCCURRING LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. COLDER AIR WILL FILTER IN FROM THE SOUTH
LATER THIS AFTERNOON IN THE NORTH AND MAY CHANGE THE RAIN OVER TO
SNOW BY DARK AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE COLUMN WILL COOL ENOUGH FOR ANY RAIN TO CHANGE TO SNOW ACROSS
FAR NORTHERN MOUNTAINS ZONES BY EARLY EVENING. THE CHANGEOVER WILL
TAKE LONGER AT LOWER ELEVATIONS UP THERE. WE HAVE A FORECAST OF 3
TO 6 INCHES TONIGHT FOR THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS NEAR THE CANADIAN
BORDER IN NH AND THE WESTERN ME MOUNTAINS. AT LOWER ELEVATIONS
SUCH AS HIE AND BML...A COUPLE OF SLUSHY INCHES MAY FALL. FURTHER
SOUTH IN THE FOOTHILLS AND INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL PLAIN
AS WELL AS THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL NH...A CHANGE TO
SNOW BEFORE ENDING LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY MORNING IS NOT
COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION. IF THE COLD AIR COMES IN FAST
ENOUGH THESE AREAS COULD GET A SLUSHY COATING.

ANY LINGER LIGHT PRECIPITATION ON THE COASTAL PLAIN AND ACROSS
SOUTHERN NH WILL COME TO AN END FRIDAY MORNING. PARTIAL SUNSHINE
SHOULD RETURN TO AT LEAST NORTHERN ZONES AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE LONG WAVE PATTERN
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHILE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF INDIVIDUAL
SHORTWAVES DIFFER MARKEDLY AFTER SUNDAY WITH BELOW NORMAL
CONFIDENCE IN SENSIBLE WEATHER AFTER EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN BELOW NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD...AS
THE MEAN JET POSITION WILL BE TO OUR SOUTH. WE BEGIN THE PERIOD
WITH A DEEP UPPER TROUGH TO OUR WEST. THE TROUGH WILL SLIDE EAST...AND
PROVIDE A FEW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO THE
AREA INTO SATURDAY...BEFORE EXITING THE COAST. RIDGING SURFACE
AND ALOFT PROVIDES A QUIET...SUNNY...BUT SEASONABLY COOL DAY FOR
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE DIVES QUICKLY
SOUTHEAST WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW AND TRAILING COLD FRONT
TO CROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY. OVER THE PAST SEVERAL MODEL
RUNS...THE GFS HAS COME AROUND TO THE MORE PROGRESSIVE ECMWF/CMC-
GLOBAL SOLUTIONS WITH THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...IFR CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS AND FOG SHOULD IMPROVE
THIS MORNING TO AT LEAST MVFR IF NOT VFR FOR A FEW HOURS. IFR OR
LOWER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
IN RAIN...WITH SNOW AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS NORTHERN NH AND
THE WESTERN ME MOUNTAINS. VFR RETURNS ON FRIDAY.

LONG TERM...

SAT...SCT MVFR PSBL IN MTN RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...
10 AM UPDATE: HAVE DROPPED THE SCA FOR THE OUTER WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THIS MORNING. WINDS
AND SEAS WILL SUBSIDE AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES AND INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. HOWEVER...SEAS WILL ONCE AGAIN BUILD TO SCA
LEVELS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AND ANOTHER SCA WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE
ISSUED.

LONG TERM...

SAT...SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND SEAS ARE POSSIBLE.

MON...GALE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WARMER WEATHER AND ONE HALF TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF RAIN
WILL INDUCE SOME RUNOFF THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WE WILL
LIKELY SEE SOME RISES ON SOUTHERN RIVERS. AT THE CURRENT TIME WE
DO NOT EXPECT ANY BIG ISSUES. PERHAPS SOME MINOR POOR DRAINAGE
FLOODING LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER...WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR FOR ICE MOVEMENT ON RIVERS AND STREAMS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 11 PM THIS
     EVENING TO NOON EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ153-154.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KGYX 261415
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1015 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OUT OF THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY
TODAY AND MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE REGION FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS QUEBEC ON MONDAY
AND WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN BUILDS OVER THE AREA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
10 AM UPDATE: LARGE AREA OF SUBSIDENCE IN WARM SECTOR ACROSS MUCH
OF NH AND INTO WESTERN MAINE ALLOWING SKIES TO GO MOSTLY SUNNY FOR
A WHILE. THIS WILL MEAN TEMPERATURES WILL JUMP AND MAY REACH A
FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN FORECAST INTO WESTERN AND SOUTHERN MAINE
SO MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS. ALSO ADJUSTED SKY COVER TO ALLOW FOR THE
CLEAR SLOT DEVELOPING THAT SHOWS UP NICELY ON THE VISIBLE SAT PIX.
ALSO TOOK OUT POPS FOR THE REST OF THE MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON. TIMING OF PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO ONSET BETWEEN MID-LATE
AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST.

630 AM UPDATE...VERY LITTLE CHANGE
TO THE GOING FORECAST. CLOUDY WITH SOME FOG BUT RAIN-FREE FOR MUCH
OF THIS MORNING.

PREVIOUSLY...

WARM FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING AND THEN BEGIN
TO MOVE BACK SOUTH AS A COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ZONES. AT THE SAME TIME A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY WILL APPROACH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS MORNING
SHOULD BE OK WEATHERWISE...MOSTLY DRY WITH A FEW BREAKS OF SUN NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION. TEMPERATURES SHOULD PUSH INTO THE 45-55 RANGE
ACROSS THE AREA BY LATE MORNING WITH 60 NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE
QUESTION IF THE SUN BREAKS OUT ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHERN
NEW HAMPSHIRE. RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM WEST TO TO EAST
BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH THE STEADIEST RAINFALL OCCURRING LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. COLDER AIR WILL FILTER IN FROM THE SOUTH
LATER THIS AFTERNOON IN THE NORTH AND MAY CHANGE THE RAIN OVER TO
SNOW BY DARK AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE COLUMN WILL COOL ENOUGH FOR ANY RAIN TO CHANGE TO SNOW ACROSS
FAR NORTHERN MOUNTAINS ZONES BY EARLY EVENING. THE CHANGEOVER WILL
TAKE LONGER AT LOWER ELEVATIONS UP THERE. WE HAVE A FORECAST OF 3
TO 6 INCHES TONIGHT FOR THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS NEAR THE CANADIAN
BORDER IN NH AND THE WESTERN ME MOUNTAINS. AT LOWER ELEVATIONS
SUCH AS HIE AND BML...A COUPLE OF SLUSHY INCHES MAY FALL. FURTHER
SOUTH IN THE FOOTHILLS AND INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL PLAIN
AS WELL AS THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL NH...A CHANGE TO
SNOW BEFORE ENDING LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY MORNING IS NOT
COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION. IF THE COLD AIR COMES IN FAST
ENOUGH THESE AREAS COULD GET A SLUSHY COATING.

ANY LINGER LIGHT PRECIPITATION ON THE COASTAL PLAIN AND ACROSS
SOUTHERN NH WILL COME TO AN END FRIDAY MORNING. PARTIAL SUNSHINE
SHOULD RETURN TO AT LEAST NORTHERN ZONES AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE LONG WAVE PATTERN
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHILE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF INDIVIDUAL
SHORTWAVES DIFFER MARKEDLY AFTER SUNDAY WITH BELOW NORMAL
CONFIDENCE IN SENSIBLE WEATHER AFTER EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN BELOW NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD...AS
THE MEAN JET POSITION WILL BE TO OUR SOUTH. WE BEGIN THE PERIOD
WITH A DEEP UPPER TROUGH TO OUR WEST. THE TROUGH WILL SLIDE EAST...AND
PROVIDE A FEW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO THE
AREA INTO SATURDAY...BEFORE EXITING THE COAST. RIDGING SURFACE
AND ALOFT PROVIDES A QUIET...SUNNY...BUT SEASONABLY COOL DAY FOR
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE DIVES QUICKLY
SOUTHEAST WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW AND TRAILING COLD FRONT
TO CROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY. OVER THE PAST SEVERAL MODEL
RUNS...THE GFS HAS COME AROUND TO THE MORE PROGRESSIVE ECMWF/CMC-
GLOBAL SOLUTIONS WITH THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...IFR CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS AND FOG SHOULD IMPROVE
THIS MORNING TO AT LEAST MVFR IF NOT VFR FOR A FEW HOURS. IFR OR
LOWER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
IN RAIN...WITH SNOW AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS NORTHERN NH AND
THE WESTERN ME MOUNTAINS. VFR RETURNS ON FRIDAY.

LONG TERM...

SAT...SCT MVFR PSBL IN MTN RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...
10 AM UPDATE: HAVE DROPPED THE SCA FOR THE OUTER WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THIS MORNING. WINDS
AND SEAS WILL SUBSIDE AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES AND INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. HOWEVER...SEAS WILL ONCE AGAIN BUILD TO SCA
LEVELS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AND ANOTHER SCA WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE
ISSUED.

LONG TERM...

SAT...SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND SEAS ARE POSSIBLE.

MON...GALE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WARMER WEATHER AND ONE HALF TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF RAIN
WILL INDUCE SOME RUNOFF THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WE WILL
LIKELY SEE SOME RISES ON SOUTHERN RIVERS. AT THE CURRENT TIME WE
DO NOT EXPECT ANY BIG ISSUES. PERHAPS SOME MINOR POOR DRAINAGE
FLOODING LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER...WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR FOR ICE MOVEMENT ON RIVERS AND STREAMS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 11 PM THIS
     EVENING TO NOON EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ153-154.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KGYX 261415
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1015 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OUT OF THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY
TODAY AND MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE REGION FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS QUEBEC ON MONDAY
AND WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN BUILDS OVER THE AREA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
10 AM UPDATE: LARGE AREA OF SUBSIDENCE IN WARM SECTOR ACROSS MUCH
OF NH AND INTO WESTERN MAINE ALLOWING SKIES TO GO MOSTLY SUNNY FOR
A WHILE. THIS WILL MEAN TEMPERATURES WILL JUMP AND MAY REACH A
FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN FORECAST INTO WESTERN AND SOUTHERN MAINE
SO MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS. ALSO ADJUSTED SKY COVER TO ALLOW FOR THE
CLEAR SLOT DEVELOPING THAT SHOWS UP NICELY ON THE VISIBLE SAT PIX.
ALSO TOOK OUT POPS FOR THE REST OF THE MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON. TIMING OF PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO ONSET BETWEEN MID-LATE
AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST.

630 AM UPDATE...VERY LITTLE CHANGE
TO THE GOING FORECAST. CLOUDY WITH SOME FOG BUT RAIN-FREE FOR MUCH
OF THIS MORNING.

PREVIOUSLY...

WARM FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING AND THEN BEGIN
TO MOVE BACK SOUTH AS A COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ZONES. AT THE SAME TIME A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY WILL APPROACH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS MORNING
SHOULD BE OK WEATHERWISE...MOSTLY DRY WITH A FEW BREAKS OF SUN NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION. TEMPERATURES SHOULD PUSH INTO THE 45-55 RANGE
ACROSS THE AREA BY LATE MORNING WITH 60 NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE
QUESTION IF THE SUN BREAKS OUT ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHERN
NEW HAMPSHIRE. RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM WEST TO TO EAST
BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH THE STEADIEST RAINFALL OCCURRING LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. COLDER AIR WILL FILTER IN FROM THE SOUTH
LATER THIS AFTERNOON IN THE NORTH AND MAY CHANGE THE RAIN OVER TO
SNOW BY DARK AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE COLUMN WILL COOL ENOUGH FOR ANY RAIN TO CHANGE TO SNOW ACROSS
FAR NORTHERN MOUNTAINS ZONES BY EARLY EVENING. THE CHANGEOVER WILL
TAKE LONGER AT LOWER ELEVATIONS UP THERE. WE HAVE A FORECAST OF 3
TO 6 INCHES TONIGHT FOR THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS NEAR THE CANADIAN
BORDER IN NH AND THE WESTERN ME MOUNTAINS. AT LOWER ELEVATIONS
SUCH AS HIE AND BML...A COUPLE OF SLUSHY INCHES MAY FALL. FURTHER
SOUTH IN THE FOOTHILLS AND INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL PLAIN
AS WELL AS THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL NH...A CHANGE TO
SNOW BEFORE ENDING LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY MORNING IS NOT
COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION. IF THE COLD AIR COMES IN FAST
ENOUGH THESE AREAS COULD GET A SLUSHY COATING.

ANY LINGER LIGHT PRECIPITATION ON THE COASTAL PLAIN AND ACROSS
SOUTHERN NH WILL COME TO AN END FRIDAY MORNING. PARTIAL SUNSHINE
SHOULD RETURN TO AT LEAST NORTHERN ZONES AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE LONG WAVE PATTERN
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHILE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF INDIVIDUAL
SHORTWAVES DIFFER MARKEDLY AFTER SUNDAY WITH BELOW NORMAL
CONFIDENCE IN SENSIBLE WEATHER AFTER EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN BELOW NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD...AS
THE MEAN JET POSITION WILL BE TO OUR SOUTH. WE BEGIN THE PERIOD
WITH A DEEP UPPER TROUGH TO OUR WEST. THE TROUGH WILL SLIDE EAST...AND
PROVIDE A FEW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO THE
AREA INTO SATURDAY...BEFORE EXITING THE COAST. RIDGING SURFACE
AND ALOFT PROVIDES A QUIET...SUNNY...BUT SEASONABLY COOL DAY FOR
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE DIVES QUICKLY
SOUTHEAST WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW AND TRAILING COLD FRONT
TO CROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY. OVER THE PAST SEVERAL MODEL
RUNS...THE GFS HAS COME AROUND TO THE MORE PROGRESSIVE ECMWF/CMC-
GLOBAL SOLUTIONS WITH THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...IFR CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS AND FOG SHOULD IMPROVE
THIS MORNING TO AT LEAST MVFR IF NOT VFR FOR A FEW HOURS. IFR OR
LOWER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
IN RAIN...WITH SNOW AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS NORTHERN NH AND
THE WESTERN ME MOUNTAINS. VFR RETURNS ON FRIDAY.

LONG TERM...

SAT...SCT MVFR PSBL IN MTN RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...
10 AM UPDATE: HAVE DROPPED THE SCA FOR THE OUTER WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THIS MORNING. WINDS
AND SEAS WILL SUBSIDE AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES AND INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. HOWEVER...SEAS WILL ONCE AGAIN BUILD TO SCA
LEVELS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AND ANOTHER SCA WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE
ISSUED.

LONG TERM...

SAT...SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND SEAS ARE POSSIBLE.

MON...GALE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WARMER WEATHER AND ONE HALF TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF RAIN
WILL INDUCE SOME RUNOFF THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WE WILL
LIKELY SEE SOME RISES ON SOUTHERN RIVERS. AT THE CURRENT TIME WE
DO NOT EXPECT ANY BIG ISSUES. PERHAPS SOME MINOR POOR DRAINAGE
FLOODING LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER...WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR FOR ICE MOVEMENT ON RIVERS AND STREAMS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 11 PM THIS
     EVENING TO NOON EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ153-154.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KCAR 261122
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
722 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH QUEBEC TODAY. A
WEAK SECONDARY LOW WILL TRACK THROUGH THE GULF OF MAINE TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
715 AM UPDATE...
TEMPS LOOK TO BE ON TRACK THIS MRNG WITH A GRADUAL WARMUP THRU THE
MORNING IN ONGOING WARM ADVECTION. FCST HIGHS LKLY TO CLIMB INTO
THE M/U40S THIS AFTN COMPARABLE TO YDA. WAA WL BE COMPETING
AGAINST INCRSG CLD CVR. ONLY PLACE LGT SNOW IS FALLING ACRS CWA IS
NR FRENCHVILLE IN AREA OF 50KT H8 JET AND LFQ OF H8 JET STREAK
THAT WL MV RAPIDLY EAST INTO CANADA IN THE NEXT HR OR SO.

STEADY PCPN WL MV INTO AREA FM THE WEST AFT 18Z IN THE FORM OF
-RA. AS THE AFTN WEARS ON AND COLD AIR FILTERS DOWN FM THE NORTH
EXPECT RA/SN MIX TO BEGIN ACRS THE NORTH AFTER 21Z AND PROGRESS
SWRD FM THERE THRU THE END OF THE NR TERM. NO OTHER CHGS NEEDED TO
GRIDS AT THIS TIME.

INITIAL AREA OF PCPN HAS MVD INTO NEW BRUNSWICK ATTM WITH JUST A
FEW METARS REPORTING FLURRIES AT BEST. HV RMVD MENTION OF FOG AS
UPSTREAM OBS REPORTING LITTLE OF SIGNIFICANCE AS OF 07Z WITH SSW
WINDS GUSTING TO NR 20KTS. EXPECTING JUST A SLGT CHC FOR RAIN THRU
THE MRNG HRS IN SATURATED AIRMASS UNTIL SFC LOPRES CAN WORK
NORTHEAST INTO NEW ENGLAND AS L/WV TROF HEADS EAST INTO GREAT LKS.
EXPECT THAT STEADY PCPN WL MV INTO WRN ZONES AFT 21Z THIS AFTN,
MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN.

DRY AIRMASS ACRS FAR NORTH WL PREVENT LIKELIHOOD OF WIDESPREAD
PCPN OVR THE CROWN OF MAINE, THUS HV GONE WITH JUST SCTD POPS LATE
THIS AFTN. WHAT IS ABLE TO FALL WL LKLY BE IN THE FORM OF
RAIN/SNOW AND EVENTUALLY BCM ALL SNOW THIS EVNG AS COLD AIR
FILTERS SOUTH ON NRLY FLOW AS SFC LOW PASSES INTO MARITIMES.
DEPENDING ON HOW FAST CLD AIR CAN DRAIN INTO THESE ZONES WL
DETERMINE HOW MUCH SNOW CAN ACCUMULATE. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS
THAT RAIN WL BE TURNING OVR TO SNOW JUST AS MOISTURE EVACUATES
AREA THEREFORE AM NOT EXPECTING MORE THAN 1-2 QUICK INCHES OF SNOW
OVR MOST OF THE NORTH. EXCEPTION WL BE ARND KATAHDIN IN
PISCATAQUIS CNTY WHERE 2-4 INCHES MAY BE ABLE TO ACCUMULATE.

AS FOR QPF AMNTS OVR DOWNEAST HV TRENDED DOWN ON AMNTS TONIGHT
WITH MODELS TRENDING FURTHER OFFSHORE WITH TRACK OF LOW. MAINLY
LOOKING FOR 0.5-0.75 INCHES FM THIS AFTN THRU 12Z FRIDAY BFR RAIN
HEADS SOUTH AND EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MOISTURE ALONG A COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM A WEAK SECONDARY LOW MAY
PRODUCE SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS DOWNEAST EARLY FRIDAY.
OTHERWISE, FRIDAY WILL BECOME PARTLY SUNNY WITH COOLER DRIER AIR
MOVING IN AHEAD OF COLD HIGH PRESSURE. SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO TREND
CLEARER FRIDAY NIGHT. SATURDAY WILL THEN BE UNSEASONABLY COOL BUT
VERY BRIGHT AS SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY OVER THE NORTH AND SUNNY
TO PARTLY CLOUDY DOWNEAST. HIGH PRESSURE BY LATE SATURDAY WILL BE
CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST BUT WILL BE RIDGING NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND KEEPING CONDITIONS COLD AND DRY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY NIGHT
THEN MOVE TO THE EAST OF NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUNDAY NIGHT THEN MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN SNOW INITIALLY
DEVELOPING SUNDAY NIGHT THEN MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO RAIN
DURING THE DAY MONDAY. THE PRECIPITATION IS THEN EXPECTED TO
CHANGE BACK TO SNOW MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE
CHANGE. THE LOW WILL THEN MOVE TO THE EAST OF THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST
WEDNESDAY. HAVE USED THE SUPER BLEND TO POPULATE GRIDS. WILL USE
SURFACE TEMPERATURE TO DELINEATE PRECIPITATION TYPE.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR RESTRICTIONS AT FVE IN LOW CIGS HOWEVER CONFIDENCE
IS LOW THAT -SN WILL IMPACT TERMINAL AND HV LEFT MENTION OUT FOR
NOW. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MVFR -SN AT CAR FOR SEVERAL HRS BTWN 23Z
AND 02Z. IFR RESTRICTIONS LOOKS MORE IMPRESSIVE AT PQI AND HUL
THIS EVENING IN -RASN. BGR AND BHB WILL SEE IFR CIGS THRU END OF
TAF VALID TIME IN -RA, THO MAY SEE BGR MIX WITH -SN AFTER 02Z.

SHORT TERM: MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE DOWNEAST FRIDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE, CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR ON FRIDAY AND REMAIN
VFR THROUGH SATURDAY.EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY. IFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SCA HAS BEEN EXTENDED THRU 18Z THIS AFTERNOON FOR
OFFSHORE WATERS AS SEAS WILL REMAIN 4-6 FT WITH SW WINDS GUSTING
TO NR 30TS. EXPECT SEAS TO DIMINISH FOR A TIME THIS EVENING THEN
INCREASE TOWARD SCA AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: AN SCA MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS FOR LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY FOR WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KT.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ050-
     051.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...FARRAR
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...MIGNONE
AVIATION...FARRAR/BLOOMER
MARINE...FARRAR/BLOOMER



000
FXUS61 KCAR 261122
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
722 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH QUEBEC TODAY. A
WEAK SECONDARY LOW WILL TRACK THROUGH THE GULF OF MAINE TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
715 AM UPDATE...
TEMPS LOOK TO BE ON TRACK THIS MRNG WITH A GRADUAL WARMUP THRU THE
MORNING IN ONGOING WARM ADVECTION. FCST HIGHS LKLY TO CLIMB INTO
THE M/U40S THIS AFTN COMPARABLE TO YDA. WAA WL BE COMPETING
AGAINST INCRSG CLD CVR. ONLY PLACE LGT SNOW IS FALLING ACRS CWA IS
NR FRENCHVILLE IN AREA OF 50KT H8 JET AND LFQ OF H8 JET STREAK
THAT WL MV RAPIDLY EAST INTO CANADA IN THE NEXT HR OR SO.

STEADY PCPN WL MV INTO AREA FM THE WEST AFT 18Z IN THE FORM OF
-RA. AS THE AFTN WEARS ON AND COLD AIR FILTERS DOWN FM THE NORTH
EXPECT RA/SN MIX TO BEGIN ACRS THE NORTH AFTER 21Z AND PROGRESS
SWRD FM THERE THRU THE END OF THE NR TERM. NO OTHER CHGS NEEDED TO
GRIDS AT THIS TIME.

INITIAL AREA OF PCPN HAS MVD INTO NEW BRUNSWICK ATTM WITH JUST A
FEW METARS REPORTING FLURRIES AT BEST. HV RMVD MENTION OF FOG AS
UPSTREAM OBS REPORTING LITTLE OF SIGNIFICANCE AS OF 07Z WITH SSW
WINDS GUSTING TO NR 20KTS. EXPECTING JUST A SLGT CHC FOR RAIN THRU
THE MRNG HRS IN SATURATED AIRMASS UNTIL SFC LOPRES CAN WORK
NORTHEAST INTO NEW ENGLAND AS L/WV TROF HEADS EAST INTO GREAT LKS.
EXPECT THAT STEADY PCPN WL MV INTO WRN ZONES AFT 21Z THIS AFTN,
MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN.

DRY AIRMASS ACRS FAR NORTH WL PREVENT LIKELIHOOD OF WIDESPREAD
PCPN OVR THE CROWN OF MAINE, THUS HV GONE WITH JUST SCTD POPS LATE
THIS AFTN. WHAT IS ABLE TO FALL WL LKLY BE IN THE FORM OF
RAIN/SNOW AND EVENTUALLY BCM ALL SNOW THIS EVNG AS COLD AIR
FILTERS SOUTH ON NRLY FLOW AS SFC LOW PASSES INTO MARITIMES.
DEPENDING ON HOW FAST CLD AIR CAN DRAIN INTO THESE ZONES WL
DETERMINE HOW MUCH SNOW CAN ACCUMULATE. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS
THAT RAIN WL BE TURNING OVR TO SNOW JUST AS MOISTURE EVACUATES
AREA THEREFORE AM NOT EXPECTING MORE THAN 1-2 QUICK INCHES OF SNOW
OVR MOST OF THE NORTH. EXCEPTION WL BE ARND KATAHDIN IN
PISCATAQUIS CNTY WHERE 2-4 INCHES MAY BE ABLE TO ACCUMULATE.

AS FOR QPF AMNTS OVR DOWNEAST HV TRENDED DOWN ON AMNTS TONIGHT
WITH MODELS TRENDING FURTHER OFFSHORE WITH TRACK OF LOW. MAINLY
LOOKING FOR 0.5-0.75 INCHES FM THIS AFTN THRU 12Z FRIDAY BFR RAIN
HEADS SOUTH AND EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MOISTURE ALONG A COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM A WEAK SECONDARY LOW MAY
PRODUCE SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS DOWNEAST EARLY FRIDAY.
OTHERWISE, FRIDAY WILL BECOME PARTLY SUNNY WITH COOLER DRIER AIR
MOVING IN AHEAD OF COLD HIGH PRESSURE. SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO TREND
CLEARER FRIDAY NIGHT. SATURDAY WILL THEN BE UNSEASONABLY COOL BUT
VERY BRIGHT AS SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY OVER THE NORTH AND SUNNY
TO PARTLY CLOUDY DOWNEAST. HIGH PRESSURE BY LATE SATURDAY WILL BE
CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST BUT WILL BE RIDGING NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND KEEPING CONDITIONS COLD AND DRY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY NIGHT
THEN MOVE TO THE EAST OF NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUNDAY NIGHT THEN MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN SNOW INITIALLY
DEVELOPING SUNDAY NIGHT THEN MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO RAIN
DURING THE DAY MONDAY. THE PRECIPITATION IS THEN EXPECTED TO
CHANGE BACK TO SNOW MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE
CHANGE. THE LOW WILL THEN MOVE TO THE EAST OF THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST
WEDNESDAY. HAVE USED THE SUPER BLEND TO POPULATE GRIDS. WILL USE
SURFACE TEMPERATURE TO DELINEATE PRECIPITATION TYPE.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR RESTRICTIONS AT FVE IN LOW CIGS HOWEVER CONFIDENCE
IS LOW THAT -SN WILL IMPACT TERMINAL AND HV LEFT MENTION OUT FOR
NOW. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MVFR -SN AT CAR FOR SEVERAL HRS BTWN 23Z
AND 02Z. IFR RESTRICTIONS LOOKS MORE IMPRESSIVE AT PQI AND HUL
THIS EVENING IN -RASN. BGR AND BHB WILL SEE IFR CIGS THRU END OF
TAF VALID TIME IN -RA, THO MAY SEE BGR MIX WITH -SN AFTER 02Z.

SHORT TERM: MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE DOWNEAST FRIDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE, CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR ON FRIDAY AND REMAIN
VFR THROUGH SATURDAY.EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY. IFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SCA HAS BEEN EXTENDED THRU 18Z THIS AFTERNOON FOR
OFFSHORE WATERS AS SEAS WILL REMAIN 4-6 FT WITH SW WINDS GUSTING
TO NR 30TS. EXPECT SEAS TO DIMINISH FOR A TIME THIS EVENING THEN
INCREASE TOWARD SCA AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: AN SCA MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS FOR LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY FOR WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KT.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ050-
     051.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...FARRAR
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...MIGNONE
AVIATION...FARRAR/BLOOMER
MARINE...FARRAR/BLOOMER




000
FXUS61 KGYX 261035
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
635 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OUT OF THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY
TODAY AND MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE REGION FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS QUEBEC ON MONDAY
AND WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN BUILDS OVER THE AREA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
630 AM UPDATE...VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST. CLOUDY
WITH SOME FOG BUT RAIN-FREE FOR MUCH OF THIS MORNING.

PREVIOUSLY...

WARM FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING AND THEN BEGIN
TO MOVE BACK SOUTH AS A COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ZONES. AT THE SAME TIME A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY WILL APPROACH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS MORNING
SHOULD BE OK WEATHERWISE...MOSTLY DRY WITH A FEW BREAKS OF SUN NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION. TEMPERATURES SHOULD PUSH INTO THE 45-55 RANGE
ACROSS THE AREA BY LATE MORNING WITH 60 NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE
QUESTION IF THE SUN BREAKS OUT ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHERN
NEW HAMPSHIRE. RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM WEST TO TO EAST
BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH THE STEADIEST RAINFALL OCCURRING LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. COLDER AIR WILL FILTER IN FROM THE SOUTH
LATER THIS AFTERNOON IN THE NORTH AND MAY CHANGE THE RAIN OVER TO
SNOW BY DARK AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE COLUMN WILL COOL ENOUGH FOR ANY RAIN TO CHANGE TO SNOW ACROSS
FAR NORTHERN MOUNTAINS ZONES BY EARLY EVENING. THE CHANGEOVER WILL
TAKE LONGER AT LOWER ELEVATIONS UP THERE. WE HAVE A FORECAST OF 3
TO 6 INCHES TONIGHT FOR THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS NEAR THE CANADIAN
BORDER IN NH AND THE WESTERN ME MOUNTAINS. AT LOWER ELEVATIONS
SUCH AS HIE AND BML...A COUPLE OF SLUSHY INCHES MAY FALL. FURTHER
SOUTH IN THE FOOTHILLS AND INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL PLAIN
AS WELL AS THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL NH...A CHANGE TO
SNOW BEFORE ENDING LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY MORNING IS NOT
COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION. IF THE COLD AIR COMES IN FAST
ENOUGH THESE AREAS COULD GET A SLUSHY COATING.

ANY LINGER LIGHT PRECIPITATION ON THE COASTAL PLAIN AND ACROSS
SOUTHERN NH WILL COME TO AN END FRIDAY MORNING. PARTIAL SUNSHINE
SHOULD RETURN TO AT LEAST NORTHERN ZONES AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE LONG WAVE PATTERN
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHILE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF INDIVIDUAL
SHORTWAVES DIFFER MARKEDLY AFTER SUNDAY WITH BELOW NORMAL
CONFIDENCE IN SENSIBLE WEATHER AFTER EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN BELOW NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD...AS
THE MEAN JET POSITION WILL BE TO OUR SOUTH. WE BEGIN THE PERIOD
WITH A DEEP UPPER TROUGH TO OUR WEST. THE TROUGH WILL SLIDE EAST...AND
PROVIDE A FEW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO THE
AREA INTO SATURDAY...BEFORE EXITING THE COAST. RIDGING SURFACE
AND ALOFT PROVIDES A QUIET...SUNNY...BUT SEASONABLY COOL DAY FOR
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE DIVES QUICKLY
SOUTHEAST WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW AND TRAILING COLD FRONT
TO CROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY. OVER THE PAST SEVERAL MODEL
RUNS...THE GFS HAS COME AROUND TO THE MORE PROGRESSIVE ECMWF/CMC-
GLOBAL SOLUTIONS WITH THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...IFR CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS AND FOG SHOULD IMPROVE
THIS MORNING TO AT LEAST MVFR IF NOT VFR FOR A FEW HOURS. IFR OR
LOWER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
IN RAIN...WITH SNOW AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS NORTHERN NH AND
THE WESTERN ME MOUNTAINS. VFR RETURNS ON FRIDAY.

LONG TERM...

SAT...SCT MVFR PSBL IN MTN RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THIS MORNING. WINDS AND
SEAS WILL SUBSIDE AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES AND INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. HOWEVER...SEAS WILL ONCE AGAIN BUILD TO SCA LEVELS TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY AND ANOTHER SCA WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE ISSUED.

LONG TERM...

SAT...SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND SEAS ARE POSSIBLE.

MON...GALE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WARMER WEATHER AND ONE HALF TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF RAIN
WILL INDUCE SOME RUNOFF THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WE WILL
LIKELY SEE SOME RISES ON SOUTHERN RIVERS. AT THE CURRENT TIME WE
DO NOT EXPECT ANY BIG ISSUES. PERHAPS SOME MINOR POOR DRAINAGE
FLOODING LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER...WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR FOR ICE MOVEMENT ON RIVERS AND STREAMS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 11 PM THIS
     EVENING TO NOON EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ153-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ152.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ150.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...EKSTER
SHORT TERM...EKSTER
LONG TERM...SCHWIBS




000
FXUS61 KGYX 261035
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
635 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OUT OF THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY
TODAY AND MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE REGION FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS QUEBEC ON MONDAY
AND WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN BUILDS OVER THE AREA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
630 AM UPDATE...VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST. CLOUDY
WITH SOME FOG BUT RAIN-FREE FOR MUCH OF THIS MORNING.

PREVIOUSLY...

WARM FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING AND THEN BEGIN
TO MOVE BACK SOUTH AS A COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ZONES. AT THE SAME TIME A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY WILL APPROACH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS MORNING
SHOULD BE OK WEATHERWISE...MOSTLY DRY WITH A FEW BREAKS OF SUN NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION. TEMPERATURES SHOULD PUSH INTO THE 45-55 RANGE
ACROSS THE AREA BY LATE MORNING WITH 60 NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE
QUESTION IF THE SUN BREAKS OUT ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHERN
NEW HAMPSHIRE. RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM WEST TO TO EAST
BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH THE STEADIEST RAINFALL OCCURRING LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. COLDER AIR WILL FILTER IN FROM THE SOUTH
LATER THIS AFTERNOON IN THE NORTH AND MAY CHANGE THE RAIN OVER TO
SNOW BY DARK AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE COLUMN WILL COOL ENOUGH FOR ANY RAIN TO CHANGE TO SNOW ACROSS
FAR NORTHERN MOUNTAINS ZONES BY EARLY EVENING. THE CHANGEOVER WILL
TAKE LONGER AT LOWER ELEVATIONS UP THERE. WE HAVE A FORECAST OF 3
TO 6 INCHES TONIGHT FOR THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS NEAR THE CANADIAN
BORDER IN NH AND THE WESTERN ME MOUNTAINS. AT LOWER ELEVATIONS
SUCH AS HIE AND BML...A COUPLE OF SLUSHY INCHES MAY FALL. FURTHER
SOUTH IN THE FOOTHILLS AND INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL PLAIN
AS WELL AS THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL NH...A CHANGE TO
SNOW BEFORE ENDING LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY MORNING IS NOT
COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION. IF THE COLD AIR COMES IN FAST
ENOUGH THESE AREAS COULD GET A SLUSHY COATING.

ANY LINGER LIGHT PRECIPITATION ON THE COASTAL PLAIN AND ACROSS
SOUTHERN NH WILL COME TO AN END FRIDAY MORNING. PARTIAL SUNSHINE
SHOULD RETURN TO AT LEAST NORTHERN ZONES AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE LONG WAVE PATTERN
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHILE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF INDIVIDUAL
SHORTWAVES DIFFER MARKEDLY AFTER SUNDAY WITH BELOW NORMAL
CONFIDENCE IN SENSIBLE WEATHER AFTER EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN BELOW NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD...AS
THE MEAN JET POSITION WILL BE TO OUR SOUTH. WE BEGIN THE PERIOD
WITH A DEEP UPPER TROUGH TO OUR WEST. THE TROUGH WILL SLIDE EAST...AND
PROVIDE A FEW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO THE
AREA INTO SATURDAY...BEFORE EXITING THE COAST. RIDGING SURFACE
AND ALOFT PROVIDES A QUIET...SUNNY...BUT SEASONABLY COOL DAY FOR
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE DIVES QUICKLY
SOUTHEAST WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW AND TRAILING COLD FRONT
TO CROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY. OVER THE PAST SEVERAL MODEL
RUNS...THE GFS HAS COME AROUND TO THE MORE PROGRESSIVE ECMWF/CMC-
GLOBAL SOLUTIONS WITH THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...IFR CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS AND FOG SHOULD IMPROVE
THIS MORNING TO AT LEAST MVFR IF NOT VFR FOR A FEW HOURS. IFR OR
LOWER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
IN RAIN...WITH SNOW AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS NORTHERN NH AND
THE WESTERN ME MOUNTAINS. VFR RETURNS ON FRIDAY.

LONG TERM...

SAT...SCT MVFR PSBL IN MTN RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THIS MORNING. WINDS AND
SEAS WILL SUBSIDE AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES AND INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. HOWEVER...SEAS WILL ONCE AGAIN BUILD TO SCA LEVELS TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY AND ANOTHER SCA WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE ISSUED.

LONG TERM...

SAT...SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND SEAS ARE POSSIBLE.

MON...GALE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WARMER WEATHER AND ONE HALF TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF RAIN
WILL INDUCE SOME RUNOFF THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WE WILL
LIKELY SEE SOME RISES ON SOUTHERN RIVERS. AT THE CURRENT TIME WE
DO NOT EXPECT ANY BIG ISSUES. PERHAPS SOME MINOR POOR DRAINAGE
FLOODING LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER...WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR FOR ICE MOVEMENT ON RIVERS AND STREAMS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 11 PM THIS
     EVENING TO NOON EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ153-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ152.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ150.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...EKSTER
SHORT TERM...EKSTER
LONG TERM...SCHWIBS



000
FXUS61 KCAR 260741
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
341 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH QUEBEC TODAY. A
WEAK SECONDARY LOW WILL TRACK THROUGH THE GULF OF MAINE TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
INITIAL AREA OF PCPN HAS MVD INTO NEW BRUNSWICK ATTM WITH JUST A
FEW METARS REPORTING FLURRIES AT BEST. HV RMVD MENTION OF FOG AS
UPSTREAM OBS REPORTING LITTLE OF SIGNIFICANCE AS OF 07Z WITH SSW
WINDS GUSTING TO NR 20KTS. EXPECTING JUST A SLGT CHC FOR RAIN THRU
THE MRNG HRS IN SATURATED AIRMASS UNTIL SFC LOPRES CAN WORK
NORTHEAST INTO NEW ENGLAND AS L/WV TROF HEADS EAST INTO GREAT LKS.
EXPECT THAT STEADY PCPN WL MV INTO WRN ZONES AFT 21Z THIS AFTN,
MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN.

DRY AIRMASS ACRS FAR NORTH WL PREVENT LIKELIHOOD OF WIDESPREAD
PCPN OVR THE CROWN OF MAINE, THUS HV GONE WITH JUST SCTD POPS LATE
THIS AFTN. WHAT IS ABLE TO FALL WL LKLY BE IN THE FORM OF
RAIN/SNOW AND EVENTUALLY BCM ALL SNOW THIS EVNG AS COLD AIR
FILTERS SOUTH ON NRLY FLOW AS SFC LOW PASSES INTO MARITIMES.
DEPENDING ON HOW FAST CLD AIR CAN DRAIN INTO THESE ZONES WL
DETERMINE HOW MUCH SNOW CAN ACCUMULATE. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS
THAT RAIN WL BE TURNING OVR TO SNOW JUST AS MOISTURE EVACUATES
AREA THEREFORE AM NOT EXPECTING MORE THAN 1-2 QUICK INCHES OF SNOW
OVR MOST OF THE NORTH. EXCEPTION WL BE ARND KATAHDIN IN
PISCATAQUIS CNTY WHERE 2-4 INCHES MAY BE ABLE TO ACCUMULATE.

AS FOR QPF AMNTS OVR DOWNEAST HV TRENDED DOWN ON AMNTS TONIGHT
WITH MODELS TRENDING FURTHER OFFSHORE WITH TRACK OF LOW. MAINLY
LOOKING FOR 0.5-0.75 INCHES FM THIS AFTN THRU 12Z FRIDAY BFR RAIN
HEADS SOUTH AND EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MOISTURE ALONG A COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM A WEAK SECONDARY LOW MAY
PRODUCE SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS DOWNEAST EARLY FRIDAY.
OTHERWISE, FRIDAY WILL BECOME PARTLY SUNNY WITH COOLER DRIER AIR
MOVING IN AHEAD OF COLD HIGH PRESSURE. SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO TREND
CLEARER FRIDAY NIGHT. SATURDAY WILL THEN BE UNSEASONABLY COOL BUT
VERY BRIGHT AS SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY OVER THE NORTH AND SUNNY
TO PARTLY CLOUDY DOWNEAST. HIGH PRESSURE BY LATE SATURDAY WILL BE
CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST BUT WILL BE RIDGING NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND KEEPING CONDITIONS COLD AND DRY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY NIGHT
THEN MOVE TO THE EAST OF NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUNDAY NIGHT THEN MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN SNOW INITIALLY
DEVELOPING SUNDAY NIGHT THEN MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO RAIN
DURING THE DAY MONDAY. THE PRECIPITATION IS THEN EXPECTED TO
CHANGE BACK TO SNOW MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE
CHANGE. THE LOW WILL THEN MOVE TO THE EAST OF THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST
WEDNESDAY. HAVE USED THE SUPER BLEND TO POPULATE GRIDS. WILL USE
SURFACE TEMPERATURE TO DELINEATE PRECIPITATION TYPE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS IN -SN OVR NORTHERN TERMINALS
AND -RA AT BGR AND BHB AFTER 21Z. EXPECT BGR TO MIX WITH SNOW
AFTER 01Z WITH BHB REMAINING ALL RAIN THRU END OF TAF VALID TIME.

SHORT TERM: MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE DOWNEAST FRIDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE, CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR ON FRIDAY AND REMAIN
VFR THROUGH SATURDAY.EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY. IFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SCA HAS BEEN EXTENDED THRU 18Z THIS AFTERNOON FOR
OFFSHORE WATERS AS SEAS WILL REMAIN 4-6 FT WITH SW WINDS GUSTING
TO NR 30TS. EXPECT SEAS TO DIMINISH FOR A TIME THIS EVENING THEN
INCREASE TOWARD SCA AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: AN SCA MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS FOR LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY FOR WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KT.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ050-
     051.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...FARRAR
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...MIGNONE
AVIATION...FARRAR/BLOOMER
MARINE...FARRAR/BLOOMER



000
FXUS61 KCAR 260741
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
341 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH QUEBEC TODAY. A
WEAK SECONDARY LOW WILL TRACK THROUGH THE GULF OF MAINE TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
INITIAL AREA OF PCPN HAS MVD INTO NEW BRUNSWICK ATTM WITH JUST A
FEW METARS REPORTING FLURRIES AT BEST. HV RMVD MENTION OF FOG AS
UPSTREAM OBS REPORTING LITTLE OF SIGNIFICANCE AS OF 07Z WITH SSW
WINDS GUSTING TO NR 20KTS. EXPECTING JUST A SLGT CHC FOR RAIN THRU
THE MRNG HRS IN SATURATED AIRMASS UNTIL SFC LOPRES CAN WORK
NORTHEAST INTO NEW ENGLAND AS L/WV TROF HEADS EAST INTO GREAT LKS.
EXPECT THAT STEADY PCPN WL MV INTO WRN ZONES AFT 21Z THIS AFTN,
MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN.

DRY AIRMASS ACRS FAR NORTH WL PREVENT LIKELIHOOD OF WIDESPREAD
PCPN OVR THE CROWN OF MAINE, THUS HV GONE WITH JUST SCTD POPS LATE
THIS AFTN. WHAT IS ABLE TO FALL WL LKLY BE IN THE FORM OF
RAIN/SNOW AND EVENTUALLY BCM ALL SNOW THIS EVNG AS COLD AIR
FILTERS SOUTH ON NRLY FLOW AS SFC LOW PASSES INTO MARITIMES.
DEPENDING ON HOW FAST CLD AIR CAN DRAIN INTO THESE ZONES WL
DETERMINE HOW MUCH SNOW CAN ACCUMULATE. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS
THAT RAIN WL BE TURNING OVR TO SNOW JUST AS MOISTURE EVACUATES
AREA THEREFORE AM NOT EXPECTING MORE THAN 1-2 QUICK INCHES OF SNOW
OVR MOST OF THE NORTH. EXCEPTION WL BE ARND KATAHDIN IN
PISCATAQUIS CNTY WHERE 2-4 INCHES MAY BE ABLE TO ACCUMULATE.

AS FOR QPF AMNTS OVR DOWNEAST HV TRENDED DOWN ON AMNTS TONIGHT
WITH MODELS TRENDING FURTHER OFFSHORE WITH TRACK OF LOW. MAINLY
LOOKING FOR 0.5-0.75 INCHES FM THIS AFTN THRU 12Z FRIDAY BFR RAIN
HEADS SOUTH AND EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MOISTURE ALONG A COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM A WEAK SECONDARY LOW MAY
PRODUCE SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS DOWNEAST EARLY FRIDAY.
OTHERWISE, FRIDAY WILL BECOME PARTLY SUNNY WITH COOLER DRIER AIR
MOVING IN AHEAD OF COLD HIGH PRESSURE. SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO TREND
CLEARER FRIDAY NIGHT. SATURDAY WILL THEN BE UNSEASONABLY COOL BUT
VERY BRIGHT AS SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY OVER THE NORTH AND SUNNY
TO PARTLY CLOUDY DOWNEAST. HIGH PRESSURE BY LATE SATURDAY WILL BE
CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST BUT WILL BE RIDGING NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND KEEPING CONDITIONS COLD AND DRY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY NIGHT
THEN MOVE TO THE EAST OF NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUNDAY NIGHT THEN MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN SNOW INITIALLY
DEVELOPING SUNDAY NIGHT THEN MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO RAIN
DURING THE DAY MONDAY. THE PRECIPITATION IS THEN EXPECTED TO
CHANGE BACK TO SNOW MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE
CHANGE. THE LOW WILL THEN MOVE TO THE EAST OF THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST
WEDNESDAY. HAVE USED THE SUPER BLEND TO POPULATE GRIDS. WILL USE
SURFACE TEMPERATURE TO DELINEATE PRECIPITATION TYPE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS IN -SN OVR NORTHERN TERMINALS
AND -RA AT BGR AND BHB AFTER 21Z. EXPECT BGR TO MIX WITH SNOW
AFTER 01Z WITH BHB REMAINING ALL RAIN THRU END OF TAF VALID TIME.

SHORT TERM: MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE DOWNEAST FRIDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE, CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR ON FRIDAY AND REMAIN
VFR THROUGH SATURDAY.EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY. IFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SCA HAS BEEN EXTENDED THRU 18Z THIS AFTERNOON FOR
OFFSHORE WATERS AS SEAS WILL REMAIN 4-6 FT WITH SW WINDS GUSTING
TO NR 30TS. EXPECT SEAS TO DIMINISH FOR A TIME THIS EVENING THEN
INCREASE TOWARD SCA AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: AN SCA MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS FOR LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY FOR WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KT.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ050-
     051.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...FARRAR
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...MIGNONE
AVIATION...FARRAR/BLOOMER
MARINE...FARRAR/BLOOMER




000
FXUS61 KCAR 260741
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
341 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH QUEBEC TODAY. A
WEAK SECONDARY LOW WILL TRACK THROUGH THE GULF OF MAINE TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
INITIAL AREA OF PCPN HAS MVD INTO NEW BRUNSWICK ATTM WITH JUST A
FEW METARS REPORTING FLURRIES AT BEST. HV RMVD MENTION OF FOG AS
UPSTREAM OBS REPORTING LITTLE OF SIGNIFICANCE AS OF 07Z WITH SSW
WINDS GUSTING TO NR 20KTS. EXPECTING JUST A SLGT CHC FOR RAIN THRU
THE MRNG HRS IN SATURATED AIRMASS UNTIL SFC LOPRES CAN WORK
NORTHEAST INTO NEW ENGLAND AS L/WV TROF HEADS EAST INTO GREAT LKS.
EXPECT THAT STEADY PCPN WL MV INTO WRN ZONES AFT 21Z THIS AFTN,
MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN.

DRY AIRMASS ACRS FAR NORTH WL PREVENT LIKELIHOOD OF WIDESPREAD
PCPN OVR THE CROWN OF MAINE, THUS HV GONE WITH JUST SCTD POPS LATE
THIS AFTN. WHAT IS ABLE TO FALL WL LKLY BE IN THE FORM OF
RAIN/SNOW AND EVENTUALLY BCM ALL SNOW THIS EVNG AS COLD AIR
FILTERS SOUTH ON NRLY FLOW AS SFC LOW PASSES INTO MARITIMES.
DEPENDING ON HOW FAST CLD AIR CAN DRAIN INTO THESE ZONES WL
DETERMINE HOW MUCH SNOW CAN ACCUMULATE. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS
THAT RAIN WL BE TURNING OVR TO SNOW JUST AS MOISTURE EVACUATES
AREA THEREFORE AM NOT EXPECTING MORE THAN 1-2 QUICK INCHES OF SNOW
OVR MOST OF THE NORTH. EXCEPTION WL BE ARND KATAHDIN IN
PISCATAQUIS CNTY WHERE 2-4 INCHES MAY BE ABLE TO ACCUMULATE.

AS FOR QPF AMNTS OVR DOWNEAST HV TRENDED DOWN ON AMNTS TONIGHT
WITH MODELS TRENDING FURTHER OFFSHORE WITH TRACK OF LOW. MAINLY
LOOKING FOR 0.5-0.75 INCHES FM THIS AFTN THRU 12Z FRIDAY BFR RAIN
HEADS SOUTH AND EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MOISTURE ALONG A COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM A WEAK SECONDARY LOW MAY
PRODUCE SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS DOWNEAST EARLY FRIDAY.
OTHERWISE, FRIDAY WILL BECOME PARTLY SUNNY WITH COOLER DRIER AIR
MOVING IN AHEAD OF COLD HIGH PRESSURE. SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO TREND
CLEARER FRIDAY NIGHT. SATURDAY WILL THEN BE UNSEASONABLY COOL BUT
VERY BRIGHT AS SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY OVER THE NORTH AND SUNNY
TO PARTLY CLOUDY DOWNEAST. HIGH PRESSURE BY LATE SATURDAY WILL BE
CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST BUT WILL BE RIDGING NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND KEEPING CONDITIONS COLD AND DRY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY NIGHT
THEN MOVE TO THE EAST OF NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUNDAY NIGHT THEN MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN SNOW INITIALLY
DEVELOPING SUNDAY NIGHT THEN MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO RAIN
DURING THE DAY MONDAY. THE PRECIPITATION IS THEN EXPECTED TO
CHANGE BACK TO SNOW MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE
CHANGE. THE LOW WILL THEN MOVE TO THE EAST OF THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST
WEDNESDAY. HAVE USED THE SUPER BLEND TO POPULATE GRIDS. WILL USE
SURFACE TEMPERATURE TO DELINEATE PRECIPITATION TYPE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS IN -SN OVR NORTHERN TERMINALS
AND -RA AT BGR AND BHB AFTER 21Z. EXPECT BGR TO MIX WITH SNOW
AFTER 01Z WITH BHB REMAINING ALL RAIN THRU END OF TAF VALID TIME.

SHORT TERM: MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE DOWNEAST FRIDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE, CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR ON FRIDAY AND REMAIN
VFR THROUGH SATURDAY.EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY. IFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SCA HAS BEEN EXTENDED THRU 18Z THIS AFTERNOON FOR
OFFSHORE WATERS AS SEAS WILL REMAIN 4-6 FT WITH SW WINDS GUSTING
TO NR 30TS. EXPECT SEAS TO DIMINISH FOR A TIME THIS EVENING THEN
INCREASE TOWARD SCA AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: AN SCA MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS FOR LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY FOR WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KT.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ050-
     051.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...FARRAR
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...MIGNONE
AVIATION...FARRAR/BLOOMER
MARINE...FARRAR/BLOOMER



000
FXUS61 KCAR 260741
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
341 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH QUEBEC TODAY. A
WEAK SECONDARY LOW WILL TRACK THROUGH THE GULF OF MAINE TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
INITIAL AREA OF PCPN HAS MVD INTO NEW BRUNSWICK ATTM WITH JUST A
FEW METARS REPORTING FLURRIES AT BEST. HV RMVD MENTION OF FOG AS
UPSTREAM OBS REPORTING LITTLE OF SIGNIFICANCE AS OF 07Z WITH SSW
WINDS GUSTING TO NR 20KTS. EXPECTING JUST A SLGT CHC FOR RAIN THRU
THE MRNG HRS IN SATURATED AIRMASS UNTIL SFC LOPRES CAN WORK
NORTHEAST INTO NEW ENGLAND AS L/WV TROF HEADS EAST INTO GREAT LKS.
EXPECT THAT STEADY PCPN WL MV INTO WRN ZONES AFT 21Z THIS AFTN,
MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN.

DRY AIRMASS ACRS FAR NORTH WL PREVENT LIKELIHOOD OF WIDESPREAD
PCPN OVR THE CROWN OF MAINE, THUS HV GONE WITH JUST SCTD POPS LATE
THIS AFTN. WHAT IS ABLE TO FALL WL LKLY BE IN THE FORM OF
RAIN/SNOW AND EVENTUALLY BCM ALL SNOW THIS EVNG AS COLD AIR
FILTERS SOUTH ON NRLY FLOW AS SFC LOW PASSES INTO MARITIMES.
DEPENDING ON HOW FAST CLD AIR CAN DRAIN INTO THESE ZONES WL
DETERMINE HOW MUCH SNOW CAN ACCUMULATE. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS
THAT RAIN WL BE TURNING OVR TO SNOW JUST AS MOISTURE EVACUATES
AREA THEREFORE AM NOT EXPECTING MORE THAN 1-2 QUICK INCHES OF SNOW
OVR MOST OF THE NORTH. EXCEPTION WL BE ARND KATAHDIN IN
PISCATAQUIS CNTY WHERE 2-4 INCHES MAY BE ABLE TO ACCUMULATE.

AS FOR QPF AMNTS OVR DOWNEAST HV TRENDED DOWN ON AMNTS TONIGHT
WITH MODELS TRENDING FURTHER OFFSHORE WITH TRACK OF LOW. MAINLY
LOOKING FOR 0.5-0.75 INCHES FM THIS AFTN THRU 12Z FRIDAY BFR RAIN
HEADS SOUTH AND EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MOISTURE ALONG A COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM A WEAK SECONDARY LOW MAY
PRODUCE SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS DOWNEAST EARLY FRIDAY.
OTHERWISE, FRIDAY WILL BECOME PARTLY SUNNY WITH COOLER DRIER AIR
MOVING IN AHEAD OF COLD HIGH PRESSURE. SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO TREND
CLEARER FRIDAY NIGHT. SATURDAY WILL THEN BE UNSEASONABLY COOL BUT
VERY BRIGHT AS SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY OVER THE NORTH AND SUNNY
TO PARTLY CLOUDY DOWNEAST. HIGH PRESSURE BY LATE SATURDAY WILL BE
CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST BUT WILL BE RIDGING NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND KEEPING CONDITIONS COLD AND DRY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY NIGHT
THEN MOVE TO THE EAST OF NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUNDAY NIGHT THEN MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN SNOW INITIALLY
DEVELOPING SUNDAY NIGHT THEN MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO RAIN
DURING THE DAY MONDAY. THE PRECIPITATION IS THEN EXPECTED TO
CHANGE BACK TO SNOW MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE
CHANGE. THE LOW WILL THEN MOVE TO THE EAST OF THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST
WEDNESDAY. HAVE USED THE SUPER BLEND TO POPULATE GRIDS. WILL USE
SURFACE TEMPERATURE TO DELINEATE PRECIPITATION TYPE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS IN -SN OVR NORTHERN TERMINALS
AND -RA AT BGR AND BHB AFTER 21Z. EXPECT BGR TO MIX WITH SNOW
AFTER 01Z WITH BHB REMAINING ALL RAIN THRU END OF TAF VALID TIME.

SHORT TERM: MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE DOWNEAST FRIDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE, CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR ON FRIDAY AND REMAIN
VFR THROUGH SATURDAY.EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY. IFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SCA HAS BEEN EXTENDED THRU 18Z THIS AFTERNOON FOR
OFFSHORE WATERS AS SEAS WILL REMAIN 4-6 FT WITH SW WINDS GUSTING
TO NR 30TS. EXPECT SEAS TO DIMINISH FOR A TIME THIS EVENING THEN
INCREASE TOWARD SCA AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: AN SCA MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS FOR LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY FOR WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KT.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ050-
     051.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...FARRAR
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...MIGNONE
AVIATION...FARRAR/BLOOMER
MARINE...FARRAR/BLOOMER




000
FXUS61 KGYX 260701
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
301 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OUT OF THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY
TODAY AND MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE REGION FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS QUEBEC ON MONDAY
AND WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN BUILDS OVER THE AREA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
WARM FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING AND THEN BEGIN
TO MOVE BACK SOUTH AS A COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ZONES. AT THE SAME TIME A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY WILL APPROACH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS MORNING
SHOULD BE OK WEATHERWISE...MOSTLY DRY WITH A FEW BREAKS OF SUN NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION. TEMPERATURES SHOULD PUSH INTO THE 45-55 RANGE
ACROSS THE AREA BY LATE MORNING WITH 60 NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE
QUESTION IF THE SUN BREAKS OUT ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHERN
NEW HAMPSHIRE. RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM WEST TO TO EAST
BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH THE STEADIEST RAINFALL OCCURRING LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. COLDER AIR WILL FILTER IN FROM THE SOUTH
LATER THIS AFTERNOON IN THE NORTH AND MAY CHANGE THE RAIN OVER TO
SNOW BY DARK AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE COLUMN WILL COOL ENOUGH FOR ANY RAIN TO CHANGE TO SNOW ACROSS
FAR NORTHERN MOUNTAINS ZONES BY EARLY EVENING. THE CHANGEOVER WILL
TAKE LONGER AT LOWER ELEVATIONS UP THERE. WE HAVE A FORECAST OF 3
TO 6 INCHES TONIGHT FOR THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS NEAR THE CANADIAN
BORDER IN NH AND THE WESTERN ME MOUNTAINS. AT LOWER ELEVATIONS
SUCH AS HIE AND BML...A COUPLE OF SLUSHY INCHES MAY FALL. FURTHER
SOUTH IN THE FOOTHILLS AND INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL PLAIN
AS WELL AS THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL NH...A CHANGE TO
SNOW BEFORE ENDING LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY MORNING IS NOT
COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION. IF THE COLD AIR COMES IN FAST
ENOUGH THESE AREAS COULD GET A SLUSHY COATING.

ANY LINGER LIGHT PRECIPITATION ON THE COASTAL PLAIN AND ACROSS
SOUTHERN NH WILL COME TO AN END FRIDAY MORNING. PARTIAL SUNSHINE
SHOULD RETURN TO AT LEAST NORTHERN ZONES AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE LONG WAVE PATTERN
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHILE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF INDIVIDUAL
SHORTWAVES DIFFER MARKEDLY AFTER SUNDAY WITH BELOW NORMAL
CONFIDENCE IN SENSIBLE WEATHER AFTER EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN BELOW NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD...AS
THE MEAN JET POSITION WILL BE TO OUR SOUTH. WE BEGIN THE PERIOD
WITH A DEEP UPPER TROUGH TO OUR WEST. THE TROUGH WILL SLIDE EAST...AND
PROVIDE A FEW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO THE
AREA INTO SATURDAY...BEFORE EXITING THE COAST. RIDGING SURFACE
AND ALOFT PROVIDES A QUIET...SUNNY...BUT SEASONABLY COOL DAY FOR
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE DIVES QUICKLY
SOUTHEAST WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW AND TRAILING COLD FRONT
TO CROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY. OVER THE PAST SEVERAL MODEL
RUNS...THE GFS HAS COME AROUND TO THE MORE PROGRESSIVE ECMWF/CMC-
GLOBAL SOLUTIONS WITH THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...IFR CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS AND FOG SHOULD IMPROVE
THIS MORNING TO AT LEAST MVFR IF NOT VFR FOR A FEW HOURS. IFR OR
LOWER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
IN RAIN...WITH SNOW AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS NORTHERN NH AND
THE WESTERN ME MOUNTAINS. VFR RETURNS ON FRIDAY.

LONG TERM...

SAT...SCT MVFR PSBL IN MTN RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THIS MORNING. WINDS AND
SEAS WILL SUBSIDE AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES AND INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. HOWEVER...SEAS WILL ONCE AGAIN BUILD TO SCA LEVELS TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY AND ANOTHER SCA WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE ISSUED.

LONG TERM...

SAT...SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND SEAS ARE POSSIBLE.

MON...GALE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WARMER WEATHER AND ONE HALF TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF RAIN
WILL INDUCE SOME RUNOFF THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WE WILL
LIKELY SEE SOME RISES ON SOUTHERN RIVERS. AT THE CURRENT TIME WE
DO NOT EXPECT ANY BIG ISSUES. PERHAPS SOME MINOR POOR DRAINAGE
FLOODING LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER...WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR FOR ICE MOVEMENT ON RIVERS AND STREAMS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ153-
     154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ151-
     152.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ150.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...EKSTER
SHORT TERM...EKSTER
LONG TERM...SCHWIBS




000
FXUS61 KGYX 260701
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
301 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OUT OF THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY
TODAY AND MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE REGION FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS QUEBEC ON MONDAY
AND WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN BUILDS OVER THE AREA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
WARM FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING AND THEN BEGIN
TO MOVE BACK SOUTH AS A COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ZONES. AT THE SAME TIME A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY WILL APPROACH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS MORNING
SHOULD BE OK WEATHERWISE...MOSTLY DRY WITH A FEW BREAKS OF SUN NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION. TEMPERATURES SHOULD PUSH INTO THE 45-55 RANGE
ACROSS THE AREA BY LATE MORNING WITH 60 NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE
QUESTION IF THE SUN BREAKS OUT ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHERN
NEW HAMPSHIRE. RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM WEST TO TO EAST
BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH THE STEADIEST RAINFALL OCCURRING LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. COLDER AIR WILL FILTER IN FROM THE SOUTH
LATER THIS AFTERNOON IN THE NORTH AND MAY CHANGE THE RAIN OVER TO
SNOW BY DARK AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE COLUMN WILL COOL ENOUGH FOR ANY RAIN TO CHANGE TO SNOW ACROSS
FAR NORTHERN MOUNTAINS ZONES BY EARLY EVENING. THE CHANGEOVER WILL
TAKE LONGER AT LOWER ELEVATIONS UP THERE. WE HAVE A FORECAST OF 3
TO 6 INCHES TONIGHT FOR THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS NEAR THE CANADIAN
BORDER IN NH AND THE WESTERN ME MOUNTAINS. AT LOWER ELEVATIONS
SUCH AS HIE AND BML...A COUPLE OF SLUSHY INCHES MAY FALL. FURTHER
SOUTH IN THE FOOTHILLS AND INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL PLAIN
AS WELL AS THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL NH...A CHANGE TO
SNOW BEFORE ENDING LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY MORNING IS NOT
COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION. IF THE COLD AIR COMES IN FAST
ENOUGH THESE AREAS COULD GET A SLUSHY COATING.

ANY LINGER LIGHT PRECIPITATION ON THE COASTAL PLAIN AND ACROSS
SOUTHERN NH WILL COME TO AN END FRIDAY MORNING. PARTIAL SUNSHINE
SHOULD RETURN TO AT LEAST NORTHERN ZONES AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE LONG WAVE PATTERN
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHILE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF INDIVIDUAL
SHORTWAVES DIFFER MARKEDLY AFTER SUNDAY WITH BELOW NORMAL
CONFIDENCE IN SENSIBLE WEATHER AFTER EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN BELOW NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD...AS
THE MEAN JET POSITION WILL BE TO OUR SOUTH. WE BEGIN THE PERIOD
WITH A DEEP UPPER TROUGH TO OUR WEST. THE TROUGH WILL SLIDE EAST...AND
PROVIDE A FEW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO THE
AREA INTO SATURDAY...BEFORE EXITING THE COAST. RIDGING SURFACE
AND ALOFT PROVIDES A QUIET...SUNNY...BUT SEASONABLY COOL DAY FOR
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE DIVES QUICKLY
SOUTHEAST WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW AND TRAILING COLD FRONT
TO CROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY. OVER THE PAST SEVERAL MODEL
RUNS...THE GFS HAS COME AROUND TO THE MORE PROGRESSIVE ECMWF/CMC-
GLOBAL SOLUTIONS WITH THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...IFR CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS AND FOG SHOULD IMPROVE
THIS MORNING TO AT LEAST MVFR IF NOT VFR FOR A FEW HOURS. IFR OR
LOWER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
IN RAIN...WITH SNOW AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS NORTHERN NH AND
THE WESTERN ME MOUNTAINS. VFR RETURNS ON FRIDAY.

LONG TERM...

SAT...SCT MVFR PSBL IN MTN RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THIS MORNING. WINDS AND
SEAS WILL SUBSIDE AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES AND INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. HOWEVER...SEAS WILL ONCE AGAIN BUILD TO SCA LEVELS TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY AND ANOTHER SCA WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE ISSUED.

LONG TERM...

SAT...SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND SEAS ARE POSSIBLE.

MON...GALE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WARMER WEATHER AND ONE HALF TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF RAIN
WILL INDUCE SOME RUNOFF THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WE WILL
LIKELY SEE SOME RISES ON SOUTHERN RIVERS. AT THE CURRENT TIME WE
DO NOT EXPECT ANY BIG ISSUES. PERHAPS SOME MINOR POOR DRAINAGE
FLOODING LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER...WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR FOR ICE MOVEMENT ON RIVERS AND STREAMS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ153-
     154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ151-
     152.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ150.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...EKSTER
SHORT TERM...EKSTER
LONG TERM...SCHWIBS




000
FXUS61 KGYX 260701
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
301 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OUT OF THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY
TODAY AND MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE REGION FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS QUEBEC ON MONDAY
AND WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN BUILDS OVER THE AREA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
WARM FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING AND THEN BEGIN
TO MOVE BACK SOUTH AS A COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ZONES. AT THE SAME TIME A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY WILL APPROACH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS MORNING
SHOULD BE OK WEATHERWISE...MOSTLY DRY WITH A FEW BREAKS OF SUN NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION. TEMPERATURES SHOULD PUSH INTO THE 45-55 RANGE
ACROSS THE AREA BY LATE MORNING WITH 60 NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE
QUESTION IF THE SUN BREAKS OUT ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHERN
NEW HAMPSHIRE. RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM WEST TO TO EAST
BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH THE STEADIEST RAINFALL OCCURRING LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. COLDER AIR WILL FILTER IN FROM THE SOUTH
LATER THIS AFTERNOON IN THE NORTH AND MAY CHANGE THE RAIN OVER TO
SNOW BY DARK AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE COLUMN WILL COOL ENOUGH FOR ANY RAIN TO CHANGE TO SNOW ACROSS
FAR NORTHERN MOUNTAINS ZONES BY EARLY EVENING. THE CHANGEOVER WILL
TAKE LONGER AT LOWER ELEVATIONS UP THERE. WE HAVE A FORECAST OF 3
TO 6 INCHES TONIGHT FOR THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS NEAR THE CANADIAN
BORDER IN NH AND THE WESTERN ME MOUNTAINS. AT LOWER ELEVATIONS
SUCH AS HIE AND BML...A COUPLE OF SLUSHY INCHES MAY FALL. FURTHER
SOUTH IN THE FOOTHILLS AND INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL PLAIN
AS WELL AS THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL NH...A CHANGE TO
SNOW BEFORE ENDING LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY MORNING IS NOT
COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION. IF THE COLD AIR COMES IN FAST
ENOUGH THESE AREAS COULD GET A SLUSHY COATING.

ANY LINGER LIGHT PRECIPITATION ON THE COASTAL PLAIN AND ACROSS
SOUTHERN NH WILL COME TO AN END FRIDAY MORNING. PARTIAL SUNSHINE
SHOULD RETURN TO AT LEAST NORTHERN ZONES AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE LONG WAVE PATTERN
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHILE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF INDIVIDUAL
SHORTWAVES DIFFER MARKEDLY AFTER SUNDAY WITH BELOW NORMAL
CONFIDENCE IN SENSIBLE WEATHER AFTER EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN BELOW NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD...AS
THE MEAN JET POSITION WILL BE TO OUR SOUTH. WE BEGIN THE PERIOD
WITH A DEEP UPPER TROUGH TO OUR WEST. THE TROUGH WILL SLIDE EAST...AND
PROVIDE A FEW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO THE
AREA INTO SATURDAY...BEFORE EXITING THE COAST. RIDGING SURFACE
AND ALOFT PROVIDES A QUIET...SUNNY...BUT SEASONABLY COOL DAY FOR
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE DIVES QUICKLY
SOUTHEAST WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW AND TRAILING COLD FRONT
TO CROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY. OVER THE PAST SEVERAL MODEL
RUNS...THE GFS HAS COME AROUND TO THE MORE PROGRESSIVE ECMWF/CMC-
GLOBAL SOLUTIONS WITH THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...IFR CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS AND FOG SHOULD IMPROVE
THIS MORNING TO AT LEAST MVFR IF NOT VFR FOR A FEW HOURS. IFR OR
LOWER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
IN RAIN...WITH SNOW AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS NORTHERN NH AND
THE WESTERN ME MOUNTAINS. VFR RETURNS ON FRIDAY.

LONG TERM...

SAT...SCT MVFR PSBL IN MTN RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THIS MORNING. WINDS AND
SEAS WILL SUBSIDE AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES AND INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. HOWEVER...SEAS WILL ONCE AGAIN BUILD TO SCA LEVELS TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY AND ANOTHER SCA WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE ISSUED.

LONG TERM...

SAT...SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND SEAS ARE POSSIBLE.

MON...GALE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WARMER WEATHER AND ONE HALF TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF RAIN
WILL INDUCE SOME RUNOFF THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WE WILL
LIKELY SEE SOME RISES ON SOUTHERN RIVERS. AT THE CURRENT TIME WE
DO NOT EXPECT ANY BIG ISSUES. PERHAPS SOME MINOR POOR DRAINAGE
FLOODING LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER...WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR FOR ICE MOVEMENT ON RIVERS AND STREAMS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ153-
     154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ151-
     152.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ150.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...EKSTER
SHORT TERM...EKSTER
LONG TERM...SCHWIBS




000
FXUS61 KGYX 260701
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
301 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OUT OF THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY
TODAY AND MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE REGION FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS QUEBEC ON MONDAY
AND WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN BUILDS OVER THE AREA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
WARM FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING AND THEN BEGIN
TO MOVE BACK SOUTH AS A COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ZONES. AT THE SAME TIME A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY WILL APPROACH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS MORNING
SHOULD BE OK WEATHERWISE...MOSTLY DRY WITH A FEW BREAKS OF SUN NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION. TEMPERATURES SHOULD PUSH INTO THE 45-55 RANGE
ACROSS THE AREA BY LATE MORNING WITH 60 NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE
QUESTION IF THE SUN BREAKS OUT ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHERN
NEW HAMPSHIRE. RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM WEST TO TO EAST
BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH THE STEADIEST RAINFALL OCCURRING LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. COLDER AIR WILL FILTER IN FROM THE SOUTH
LATER THIS AFTERNOON IN THE NORTH AND MAY CHANGE THE RAIN OVER TO
SNOW BY DARK AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE COLUMN WILL COOL ENOUGH FOR ANY RAIN TO CHANGE TO SNOW ACROSS
FAR NORTHERN MOUNTAINS ZONES BY EARLY EVENING. THE CHANGEOVER WILL
TAKE LONGER AT LOWER ELEVATIONS UP THERE. WE HAVE A FORECAST OF 3
TO 6 INCHES TONIGHT FOR THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS NEAR THE CANADIAN
BORDER IN NH AND THE WESTERN ME MOUNTAINS. AT LOWER ELEVATIONS
SUCH AS HIE AND BML...A COUPLE OF SLUSHY INCHES MAY FALL. FURTHER
SOUTH IN THE FOOTHILLS AND INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL PLAIN
AS WELL AS THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL NH...A CHANGE TO
SNOW BEFORE ENDING LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY MORNING IS NOT
COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION. IF THE COLD AIR COMES IN FAST
ENOUGH THESE AREAS COULD GET A SLUSHY COATING.

ANY LINGER LIGHT PRECIPITATION ON THE COASTAL PLAIN AND ACROSS
SOUTHERN NH WILL COME TO AN END FRIDAY MORNING. PARTIAL SUNSHINE
SHOULD RETURN TO AT LEAST NORTHERN ZONES AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE LONG WAVE PATTERN
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHILE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF INDIVIDUAL
SHORTWAVES DIFFER MARKEDLY AFTER SUNDAY WITH BELOW NORMAL
CONFIDENCE IN SENSIBLE WEATHER AFTER EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN BELOW NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD...AS
THE MEAN JET POSITION WILL BE TO OUR SOUTH. WE BEGIN THE PERIOD
WITH A DEEP UPPER TROUGH TO OUR WEST. THE TROUGH WILL SLIDE EAST...AND
PROVIDE A FEW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO THE
AREA INTO SATURDAY...BEFORE EXITING THE COAST. RIDGING SURFACE
AND ALOFT PROVIDES A QUIET...SUNNY...BUT SEASONABLY COOL DAY FOR
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE DIVES QUICKLY
SOUTHEAST WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW AND TRAILING COLD FRONT
TO CROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY. OVER THE PAST SEVERAL MODEL
RUNS...THE GFS HAS COME AROUND TO THE MORE PROGRESSIVE ECMWF/CMC-
GLOBAL SOLUTIONS WITH THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...IFR CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS AND FOG SHOULD IMPROVE
THIS MORNING TO AT LEAST MVFR IF NOT VFR FOR A FEW HOURS. IFR OR
LOWER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
IN RAIN...WITH SNOW AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS NORTHERN NH AND
THE WESTERN ME MOUNTAINS. VFR RETURNS ON FRIDAY.

LONG TERM...

SAT...SCT MVFR PSBL IN MTN RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THIS MORNING. WINDS AND
SEAS WILL SUBSIDE AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES AND INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. HOWEVER...SEAS WILL ONCE AGAIN BUILD TO SCA LEVELS TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY AND ANOTHER SCA WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE ISSUED.

LONG TERM...

SAT...SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND SEAS ARE POSSIBLE.

MON...GALE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WARMER WEATHER AND ONE HALF TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF RAIN
WILL INDUCE SOME RUNOFF THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WE WILL
LIKELY SEE SOME RISES ON SOUTHERN RIVERS. AT THE CURRENT TIME WE
DO NOT EXPECT ANY BIG ISSUES. PERHAPS SOME MINOR POOR DRAINAGE
FLOODING LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER...WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR FOR ICE MOVEMENT ON RIVERS AND STREAMS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ153-
     154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ151-
     152.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ150.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...EKSTER
SHORT TERM...EKSTER
LONG TERM...SCHWIBS




000
FXUS61 KCAR 260542
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
142 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL
THEN LIFT ACROSS THE REGION LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
130 AM UPDATE...
DROPPED POPS FOR THE OVRNGT PD AS INITIAL RADAR ECHOES ARE ONLY
SERVING TO SATURATE AIRMASS DOWN. LIGHT ECHOES BHND THIS LEAD BAND
RESULTING IN JUST FLURRIES AS IT QUICKLY FOLLOWS ON INITIAL WAVES
HEELS. THUS, HV DROPPED POPS TO CHC/SLGT CHC CATEGORY FOR MOST OF
THE OVRNGT. UPSTREAM OBS INDICATE MVFR CIGS AT THIS TIME WITH
FOGGY CONDS BACK AS FAR WEST AS ONTARIO/NY THO CERTAINLY NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION ACRS CWA AS AIRMASS CONTS TO SATURATE TONIGHT IN
SRLY FLOW. NO OTHER CHGS NEEEDED TO GRIDS AT THIS TIME.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
FOR THURSDAY, THE CWA GETS IN THE WARM SECTOR W/A GOOD DEAL OF
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ESPECIALLY W/THE WARM AIR OVER THE MELTING
SNOW. DECIDED TO STAY W/THE MIDNIGHT CREW`S ASSESSMENT OF THIS
TAKING PLACE. SOUNDING PROFILES SHOW THE WIND FIELD VEERING TO WSW
AND SOME DRYING IN THE MID LEVELS. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR A BRIEF
PERIOD OF SUNSHINE WHICH IN TURN WILL ALLOW FOR SOME MIXING OF A
40 KT JET AT 4K FT AS THE FRONT TO THE W APPROACHES. WIND GUSTS TO
UP TO 35 MPH ARE POSSIBLE FROM LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS DEEPER MOISTURE WORKS BACK INTO THE
REGION W/THE APPROACH OF LOW PRES FROM THE SW ALONG THE APCHG
FRONT. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SW TO NE BY THE AFTERNOON. THE
LATEST RUNS OF THE NAM/GFS/CANADIAN GEM POINT TO TEMPERATURES
FALLING BACK IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WEST AND NW WHERE RAIN
COULD CHANGE TO SNOW MAINLY N & W OF CARIBOU AND PRESQUE ISLE.
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO WARM INTO THE 40S FOR JUST ABOUT THE
ENTIRE CWA W/INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE DOWNEAST HITTING AROUND 50F.
SEE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW FOR RAINFALL AND IMPACTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTHEAST ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SITUATED ALONG THE DOWN EAST COAST THURSDAY EVENING WILL MOVE TO
THE EAST OF THE GULF OF MAINE BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY. MODEL CONSENSUS
IS NOW SHOWING THE LOW WILL PASS JUST OFF SHORE OF THE DOWN EAST
COAST. EXPECT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WITH THIS SYSTEM TO DECREASE
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH WITH THE CROWN OF MAINE AND SAINT JOHN VALLEY
SEEING LITTLE IN THE WAY OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION.

PRECIPITATION WILL BE TAPERING OFF FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
THURSDAY EVENING AS THE WAVE LIFTS NORTHEAST. AS IT DOES SO, RAIN
WILL GRADUALLY CHANGE TO SNOW ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SNOW MAY ACCUMULATE A COUPLE INCHES ACROSS CENTRAL AREAS
AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF INTERIOR DOWN EAST MAINE.

ANY LINGERING SNOW ACROSS DOWN EAST AREAS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WILL
END BY MID MORNING. IT WONT BE AS MILD FRIDAY BUT TEMPERATURES
WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. OTHERWISE EXPECT
IMPROVING CONDITIONS DURING FRIDAY AS A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD EAST LATER FRIDAY.

EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES BOTH FRIDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN ON SATURDAY
AS A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD EAST FROM THE
NATIONS MID SECTION. HIGH TEMPERATURES BY SATURDAY WILL ONCE AGAIN
FALL TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS WITH UPPER 20S TO NEAR 30 NORTH AND
LOW TO MID 30S DOWN EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WILL CONTINUE DRY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF TO OUR EAST. THE NEXT
WEATHER SYSTEM WILL THEN APPROACH THE AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND
THROUGH MONDAY. 12Z OP MODELS ARE AT ODDS ON THE TRACK. GFS TAKES
A NORTHERN STREAM LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT AND
THEN EAST ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE DURING MONDAY. THE EC TRACKS
THE LOW WELL OFF TO OUR NORTH AND SWINGS A COLD FRONT FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA WITH LESS IN THE WAY OF QPF. GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
WERE ABOUT EVENLY SPLIT WITH ABOUT HALF TAKING THE LOW TO OUR
NORTH AND THE OTHERS ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE. SUPERBELND WAS
SHOWING CHANCE POPS FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AND WE STAYED WITH
THEM. PRECIPITATION TYPE WAS SNOW OR RAIN. SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS COULD
LINGER INTO TUESDAY DEPENDING ON THE ULTIMATE TRACK OF THE LOW.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR AND EVENTUALLY IFR LATE IN
TAF PERIOD AS SYSTEM HEADS UP ALONG THE COAST. -SN POSSIBLE OVR
NORTHERN CAR/PQI AND HUL. FVE LIKELY TOO FAR NORTH TO EXPERIENCE
PREDOMINANT PRECIPITATION THUS HAVE LEFT OUT OF TAF AT THIS TIME
DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE. FURTHER SOUTH, EXPECT BGR TO BE MOST
LIKELY TO SEE -RA AFTER 22Z THEN MIXING WITH -SN AFTER 00Z. BHB
REMAINS ALL -RA THROUGH END OF TAF VALID TIME.

SHORT TERM: IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY KBGR/KBHB
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY IN RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW. VFR
CONDITIONS CAN THEN BE EXPECTED MOST OF FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. IFR/MVFR
IS POSSIBLE IN PRECIP ON MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH BUILDING
SEAS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT OVERNIGHT FOR MUCH
OF THE WATERS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE INTRACOASTAL WATERS.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY.
VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN RAIN AND AREAS OF FOG OVERNIGHT
INTO THURSDAY.

SHORT TERM: SEAS COULD CONTINUE AT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
FRIDAY AND THEN A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY CONTINUE FOR
BOTH WINDS/SEAS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL/QPF AMOUNTS STILL LOOK TO BE AROUND 0.50 INCHES EXPECTED
ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF CWA WITH AROUND 1 INCH FOR THE DOWNEAST
REGION INCLUDING THE COAST. THE WARMUP AND PROJECTED RAINFALL WILL
LEAD TO SUBSTANTIAL SNOWMELT AND RUNOFF THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. SOME
ICE MOVEMENT IS POSSIBLE ON THE RIVERS AND STREAMS WITH THE PISCATAQUIS,
PENOBSCOT AND ST. CROIX RIVER BASINS THE MOST PRONE TO THIS POSSIBILITY.
SIGNIFICANT FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED AS THE SNOWPACK SHOULD BE ABLE
TO HANDLE THE THE RAINFALL INITIALLY BEFORE RIPENING ALLOWING FOR
RUNOFF.

THE BIGGER ISSUE W/THE SNOWMELT AND RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO BE
URBAN PROBLEMS DUE TO POOR DRAINAGE AND CLOGGED STORM DRAINS.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ050-
     051.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...FARRAR
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...MIGNONE
AVIATION...FARRAR/BLOOMER
MARINE...FARRAR/BLOOMER
HYDROLOGY...



000
FXUS61 KGYX 260330
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1130 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION TONIGHT AND MOVE THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND PUSH A
COLD FRONT OFF THE COAST FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL WILL MOVE
THROUGH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
1130 PM UPDATE...SLUG OF WAA PRECIP IS MOVING OUT OF THE CWA AND
THE REST OF THE NIGHT SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY EXPECT FOR SOME
DRIZZLE. SOME FOG SHOULD FORM AS WELL.

645 PM...FORECAST UPDATES INCLUDES TWEAKS TO TIMING OF PRECIP
WITH INITIAL WAA AND FOCUSING IT AROUND THIS EVENING. ALSO...BIG
T/TD SPREADS SHOULD KEEP PRECIP FROM RACHING THE GROUND INITIALLY
AND ALSO WILL WET BULB ENOUGH TO MIX WITH SOME IP/SN IN MOST
PLACES...FOR A BRIEF PERIOD ANYWAY...BUT MOST PLACES ON THE
COASTAL PLAIN WILL MOVE TO RAIN FARILY QUICKLY. IN THE HILLS AND
MTNS COULD SEE A LONGER PERIOD OF SN/IP...BUIT ACCUMS WILL BE
CLOSER TO A COATING OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS. IN THE MTNS COULD SEE UP
TO AN INCH OF SNOW BEFORE IT MIXES WITH OR CHANGES TO RA...AND MAY
EVEN BE A FEW SPOTS HERE WHERE IT WILL END AS A SHORT PERIOD FZRA
LATE TONIGHT.

PREVIOUSLY...WATER VAPOR AND IR IMAGERY SHOW WARM AIR ADVECTION
REGIME IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN APPROACHING FROM THE SW. S FLOW
TODAY HAS GONE A LONG WAY IN SATURATING THE COLUMN AND SHOWERS
HAVE BEGUN IN NEW YORK STATE ALREADY. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED UP
NICELY TODAY AND WILL FALL ONLY A FEW DEGREES TONIGHT BEFORE
INCREASING AGAIN AS THE WARM FRONT ARRIVES. THE FIRST WAVE OF
PRECIPITATION WILL MOSTLY FALL AS RAIN BUT THERE MAY BE SOME SNOW
AND SLEET MIXING IN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
PRECIP DIMINISHES AFTER MIDNIGHT AS DRY AIR WORKS IN FROM THE SW
BEHIND THE INITIAL CYCLONE. THURSDAY WILL BE WARM... IN THE 40S
AND 50S... AND HUMID AS WELL MAKING IT SEEM EVEN WARMER THAN IT
IS. THERE WILL ONLY BE A FEW HOURS IN THE MORNING HOURS WITHOUT
PRECIP BEFORE THE NEXT ROUND ARRIVES. THE DEEP TROUGH CURRENTLY
POSING A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IN THE PLAINS TRANSLATES EAST
TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES BY EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
PROMPT SECONDARY CYCLOGENESIS NEAR THE JERSEY COAST. A STRONG
SPRINGTIME UPPER LEVEL JET WILL HELP PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A HIGHER CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW AS
PRECIPITATION INTERACTS WITH THE ANAFRONT SET UP...STILL LESS THAN
ADVISORY CRITERIA AND MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. A
COLD FRONT WILL SLIP OFF THE COAST FRIDAY. MODELS SHOW UPPER LEVEL
SHORT WAVE HANGING BACK BEHIND THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
SATURDAY SO HAVE INTRODUCED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
FOR SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE THEN. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY. NEXT A COLD FRONT APPROACHES MONDAY WITH THE
GFS PUSHING A SURFACE LOW THROUGH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THE ECMWF KEEPS MAIN SURFACE LOW TO OUR NORTH IN
SOUTHERN CANADA WITH ANOTHER LOW DEVELOPING WELL EAST OF OUR AREA
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...SCATTERED SHRA/SHSN WILL BRING MVFR CONDITIONS OR
LOWER TO THE REGION BEGINNING 00Z TONIGHT. DEEP MOISTURE CONTINUES
AND DOES NOT IMPROVE MUCH BEFORE THE NEXT ROUND OF PRECIPITATION
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY. SOME
ISOLATED MVFR POSSIBLE SATURDAY IN SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE IN
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SCA ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH TOMORROW
MORNING AND WILL LIKELY BE EXTENDED FOR WAVES.

LONG TERM...SCA WINDS POSSIBLE SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WARMER WEATHER AND ONE HALF TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF RAIN
WILL INDUCE SOME RUNOFF IN SOUTHERN LOCATIONS. WILL LIKELY SEE
SOME RISES ON SOUTHERN RIVERS. AT THE CURRENT TIME DONT EXPECT
ANY ISSUES. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR ICE MOVEMENT THOUGH.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ153.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ150>152-
     154.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KGYX 260330
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1130 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION TONIGHT AND MOVE THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND PUSH A
COLD FRONT OFF THE COAST FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL WILL MOVE
THROUGH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
1130 PM UPDATE...SLUG OF WAA PRECIP IS MOVING OUT OF THE CWA AND
THE REST OF THE NIGHT SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY EXPECT FOR SOME
DRIZZLE. SOME FOG SHOULD FORM AS WELL.

645 PM...FORECAST UPDATES INCLUDES TWEAKS TO TIMING OF PRECIP
WITH INITIAL WAA AND FOCUSING IT AROUND THIS EVENING. ALSO...BIG
T/TD SPREADS SHOULD KEEP PRECIP FROM RACHING THE GROUND INITIALLY
AND ALSO WILL WET BULB ENOUGH TO MIX WITH SOME IP/SN IN MOST
PLACES...FOR A BRIEF PERIOD ANYWAY...BUT MOST PLACES ON THE
COASTAL PLAIN WILL MOVE TO RAIN FARILY QUICKLY. IN THE HILLS AND
MTNS COULD SEE A LONGER PERIOD OF SN/IP...BUIT ACCUMS WILL BE
CLOSER TO A COATING OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS. IN THE MTNS COULD SEE UP
TO AN INCH OF SNOW BEFORE IT MIXES WITH OR CHANGES TO RA...AND MAY
EVEN BE A FEW SPOTS HERE WHERE IT WILL END AS A SHORT PERIOD FZRA
LATE TONIGHT.

PREVIOUSLY...WATER VAPOR AND IR IMAGERY SHOW WARM AIR ADVECTION
REGIME IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN APPROACHING FROM THE SW. S FLOW
TODAY HAS GONE A LONG WAY IN SATURATING THE COLUMN AND SHOWERS
HAVE BEGUN IN NEW YORK STATE ALREADY. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED UP
NICELY TODAY AND WILL FALL ONLY A FEW DEGREES TONIGHT BEFORE
INCREASING AGAIN AS THE WARM FRONT ARRIVES. THE FIRST WAVE OF
PRECIPITATION WILL MOSTLY FALL AS RAIN BUT THERE MAY BE SOME SNOW
AND SLEET MIXING IN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
PRECIP DIMINISHES AFTER MIDNIGHT AS DRY AIR WORKS IN FROM THE SW
BEHIND THE INITIAL CYCLONE. THURSDAY WILL BE WARM... IN THE 40S
AND 50S... AND HUMID AS WELL MAKING IT SEEM EVEN WARMER THAN IT
IS. THERE WILL ONLY BE A FEW HOURS IN THE MORNING HOURS WITHOUT
PRECIP BEFORE THE NEXT ROUND ARRIVES. THE DEEP TROUGH CURRENTLY
POSING A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IN THE PLAINS TRANSLATES EAST
TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES BY EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
PROMPT SECONDARY CYCLOGENESIS NEAR THE JERSEY COAST. A STRONG
SPRINGTIME UPPER LEVEL JET WILL HELP PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A HIGHER CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW AS
PRECIPITATION INTERACTS WITH THE ANAFRONT SET UP...STILL LESS THAN
ADVISORY CRITERIA AND MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. A
COLD FRONT WILL SLIP OFF THE COAST FRIDAY. MODELS SHOW UPPER LEVEL
SHORT WAVE HANGING BACK BEHIND THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
SATURDAY SO HAVE INTRODUCED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
FOR SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE THEN. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY. NEXT A COLD FRONT APPROACHES MONDAY WITH THE
GFS PUSHING A SURFACE LOW THROUGH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THE ECMWF KEEPS MAIN SURFACE LOW TO OUR NORTH IN
SOUTHERN CANADA WITH ANOTHER LOW DEVELOPING WELL EAST OF OUR AREA
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...SCATTERED SHRA/SHSN WILL BRING MVFR CONDITIONS OR
LOWER TO THE REGION BEGINNING 00Z TONIGHT. DEEP MOISTURE CONTINUES
AND DOES NOT IMPROVE MUCH BEFORE THE NEXT ROUND OF PRECIPITATION
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY. SOME
ISOLATED MVFR POSSIBLE SATURDAY IN SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE IN
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SCA ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH TOMORROW
MORNING AND WILL LIKELY BE EXTENDED FOR WAVES.

LONG TERM...SCA WINDS POSSIBLE SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WARMER WEATHER AND ONE HALF TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF RAIN
WILL INDUCE SOME RUNOFF IN SOUTHERN LOCATIONS. WILL LIKELY SEE
SOME RISES ON SOUTHERN RIVERS. AT THE CURRENT TIME DONT EXPECT
ANY ISSUES. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR ICE MOVEMENT THOUGH.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ153.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ150>152-
     154.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KCAR 260312
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1112 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL
THEN LIFT ACROSS THE REGION LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPDATE...
A WARM/OCCLUDED FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. A NARROW
BAND OF LIGHT OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION WILL CROSS THE REGION IN
ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. HOWEVER...DRIER AIR WITH RETREATING HIGH
PRESSURE WILL HELP WEAKEN THE BAND. BASED ON CRITICAL
THICKNESSES...GENERALLY EXPECT A SNOW/RAIN MIX ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA WITH LIGHT SLEET ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS. OVERNIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AN INCH OR
LESS. BASED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS...COULD ALSO HAVE POSSIBLE
PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS IN THE
WAKE OF THE BAND OF OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION DEPENDENT ON
TEMPERATURES. LITTLE OR NO ICE ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
AREAS OF FOG WILL ALSO DEVELOP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN STABILIZE OR BEGIN TO RISE LATER
TONIGHT. GENERALLY EXPECT LOW TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA TO RANGE FROM AROUND 30 TO THE LOWER 30S. HAVE UPDATED THE
FORECAST TO ADJUST FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS ALONG WITH EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION TYPES/CHANCES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
FOR THURSDAY, THE CWA GETS IN THE WARM SECTOR W/A GOOD DEAL OF
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ESPECIALLY W/THE WARM AIR OVER THE MELTING
SNOW. DECIDED TO STAY W/THE MIDNIGHT CREW`S ASSESSMENT OF THIS
TAKING PLACE. SOUNDING PROFILES SHOW THE WIND FIELD VEERING TO WSW
AND SOME DRYING IN THE MID LEVELS. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR A BRIEF
PERIOD OF SUNSHINE WHICH IN TURN WILL ALLOW FOR SOME MIXING OF A
40 KT JET AT 4K FT AS THE FRONT TO THE W APPROACHES. WIND GUSTS TO
UP TO 35 MPH ARE POSSIBLE FROM LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS DEEPER MOISTURE WORKS BACK INTO THE
REGION W/THE APPROACH OF LOW PRES FROM THE SW ALONG THE APCHG
FRONT. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SW TO NE BY THE AFTERNOON. THE
LATEST RUNS OF THE NAM/GFS/CANADIAN GEM POINT TO TEMPERATURES
FALLING BACK IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WEST AND NW WHERE RAIN
COULD CHANGE TO SNOW MAINLY N & W OF CARIBOU AND PRESQUE ISLE.
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO WARM INTO THE 40S FOR JUST ABOUT THE
ENTIRE CWA W/INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE DOWNEAST HITTING AROUND 50F.
SEE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW FOR RAINFALL AND IMPACTS.
&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTHEAST ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SITUATED ALONG THE DOWN EAST COAST THURSDAY EVENING WILL MOVE TO
THE EAST OF THE GULF OF MAINE BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY. MODEL CONSENSUS
IS NOW SHOWING THE LOW WILL PASS JUST OFF SHORE OF THE DOWN EAST
COAST. EXPECT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WITH THIS SYSTEM TO DECREASE
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH WITH THE CROWN OF MAINE AND SAINT JOHN VALLEY
SEEING LITTLE IN THE WAY OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION.

PRECIPITATION WILL BE TAPERING OFF FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
THURSDAY EVENING AS THE WAVE LIFTS NORTHEAST. AS IT DOES SO, RAIN
WILL GRADUALLY CHANGE TO SNOW ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SNOW MAY ACCUMULATE A COUPLE INCHES ACROSS CENTRAL AREAS
AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF INTERIOR DOWN EAST MAINE.

ANY LINGERING SNOW ACROSS DOWN EAST AREAS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WILL
END BY MID MORNING. IT WONT BE AS MILD FRIDAY BUT TEMPERATURES
WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. OTHERWISE EXPECT
IMPROVING CONDITIONS DURING FRIDAY AS A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD EAST LATER FRIDAY.

EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES BOTH FRIDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN ON SATURDAY
AS A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD EAST FROM THE
NATIONS MID SECTION. HIGH TEMPERATURES BY SATURDAY WILL ONCE AGAIN
FALL TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS WITH UPPER 20S TO NEAR 30 NORTH AND
LOW TO MID 30S DOWN EAST.
&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WILL CONTINUE DRY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF TO OUR EAST. THE NEXT
WEATHER SYSTEM WILL THEN APPROACH THE AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND
THROUGH MONDAY. 12Z OP MODELS ARE AT ODDS ON THE TRACK. GFS TAKES
A NORTHERN STREAM LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT AND
THEN EAST ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE DURING MONDAY. THE EC TRACKS
THE LOW WELL OFF TO OUR NORTH AND SWINGS A COLD FRONT FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA WITH LESS IN THE WAY OF QPF. GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
WERE ABOUT EVENLY SPLIT WITH ABOUT HALF TAKING THE LOW TO OUR
NORTH AND THE OTHERS ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE. SUPERBELND WAS
SHOWING CHANCE POPS FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AND WE STAYED WITH
THEM. PRECIPITATION TYPE WAS SNOW OR RAIN. SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS COULD
LINGER INTO TUESDAY DEPENDING ON THE ULTIMATE TRACK OF THE LOW.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO IFR/LIFR LEVELS OVERNIGHT.
GENERALLY EXPECT CONDITIONS TO RANGE FROM MVFR TO IFR ACROSS THE
REGION THURSDAY.

SHORT TERM: IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY KBGR/KBHB
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY IN RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW. VFR
CONDITIONS CAN THEN BE EXPECTED MOST OF FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. IFR/MVFR
IS POSSIBLE IN PRECIP ON MONDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH BUILDING
SEAS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT OVERNIGHT FOR MUCH
OF THE WATERS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE INTRACOASTAL WATERS.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY.
VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN RAIN AND AREAS OF FOG OVERNIGHT
INTO THURSDAY.

SHORT TERM: SEAS COULD CONTINUE AT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
FRIDAY AND THEN A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY CONTINUE FOR
BOTH WINDS/SEAS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL/QPF AMOUNTS STILL LOOK TO BE AROUND 0.50 INCHES EXPECTED
ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF CWA WITH AROUND 1 INCH FOR THE DOWNEAST
REGION INCLUDING THE COAST. THE WARMUP AND PROJECTED RAINFALL WILL
LEAD TO SUBSTANTIAL SNOWMELT AND RUNOFF THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. SOME
ICE MOVEMENT IS POSSIBLE ON THE RIVERS AND STREAMS WITH THE PISCATAQUIS,
PENOBSCOT AND ST. CROIX RIVER BASINS THE MOST PRONE TO THIS POSSIBILITY.
SIGNIFICANT FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED AS THE SNOWPACK SHOULD BE ABLE
TO HANDLE THE THE RAINFALL INITIALLY BEFORE RIPENING ALLOWING FOR
RUNOFF.

THE BIGGER ISSUE W/THE SNOWMELT AND RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO BE
URBAN PROBLEMS DUE TO POOR DRAINAGE AND CLOGGED STORM DRAINS.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...NORCROSS/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...NORCROSS/DUDA
MARINE...NORCROSS/DUDA
HYDROLOGY...HEWITT




000
FXUS61 KCAR 260312
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1112 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL
THEN LIFT ACROSS THE REGION LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPDATE...
A WARM/OCCLUDED FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. A NARROW
BAND OF LIGHT OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION WILL CROSS THE REGION IN
ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. HOWEVER...DRIER AIR WITH RETREATING HIGH
PRESSURE WILL HELP WEAKEN THE BAND. BASED ON CRITICAL
THICKNESSES...GENERALLY EXPECT A SNOW/RAIN MIX ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA WITH LIGHT SLEET ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS. OVERNIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AN INCH OR
LESS. BASED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS...COULD ALSO HAVE POSSIBLE
PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS IN THE
WAKE OF THE BAND OF OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION DEPENDENT ON
TEMPERATURES. LITTLE OR NO ICE ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
AREAS OF FOG WILL ALSO DEVELOP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN STABILIZE OR BEGIN TO RISE LATER
TONIGHT. GENERALLY EXPECT LOW TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA TO RANGE FROM AROUND 30 TO THE LOWER 30S. HAVE UPDATED THE
FORECAST TO ADJUST FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS ALONG WITH EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION TYPES/CHANCES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
FOR THURSDAY, THE CWA GETS IN THE WARM SECTOR W/A GOOD DEAL OF
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ESPECIALLY W/THE WARM AIR OVER THE MELTING
SNOW. DECIDED TO STAY W/THE MIDNIGHT CREW`S ASSESSMENT OF THIS
TAKING PLACE. SOUNDING PROFILES SHOW THE WIND FIELD VEERING TO WSW
AND SOME DRYING IN THE MID LEVELS. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR A BRIEF
PERIOD OF SUNSHINE WHICH IN TURN WILL ALLOW FOR SOME MIXING OF A
40 KT JET AT 4K FT AS THE FRONT TO THE W APPROACHES. WIND GUSTS TO
UP TO 35 MPH ARE POSSIBLE FROM LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS DEEPER MOISTURE WORKS BACK INTO THE
REGION W/THE APPROACH OF LOW PRES FROM THE SW ALONG THE APCHG
FRONT. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SW TO NE BY THE AFTERNOON. THE
LATEST RUNS OF THE NAM/GFS/CANADIAN GEM POINT TO TEMPERATURES
FALLING BACK IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WEST AND NW WHERE RAIN
COULD CHANGE TO SNOW MAINLY N & W OF CARIBOU AND PRESQUE ISLE.
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO WARM INTO THE 40S FOR JUST ABOUT THE
ENTIRE CWA W/INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE DOWNEAST HITTING AROUND 50F.
SEE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW FOR RAINFALL AND IMPACTS.
&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTHEAST ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SITUATED ALONG THE DOWN EAST COAST THURSDAY EVENING WILL MOVE TO
THE EAST OF THE GULF OF MAINE BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY. MODEL CONSENSUS
IS NOW SHOWING THE LOW WILL PASS JUST OFF SHORE OF THE DOWN EAST
COAST. EXPECT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WITH THIS SYSTEM TO DECREASE
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH WITH THE CROWN OF MAINE AND SAINT JOHN VALLEY
SEEING LITTLE IN THE WAY OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION.

PRECIPITATION WILL BE TAPERING OFF FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
THURSDAY EVENING AS THE WAVE LIFTS NORTHEAST. AS IT DOES SO, RAIN
WILL GRADUALLY CHANGE TO SNOW ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SNOW MAY ACCUMULATE A COUPLE INCHES ACROSS CENTRAL AREAS
AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF INTERIOR DOWN EAST MAINE.

ANY LINGERING SNOW ACROSS DOWN EAST AREAS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WILL
END BY MID MORNING. IT WONT BE AS MILD FRIDAY BUT TEMPERATURES
WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. OTHERWISE EXPECT
IMPROVING CONDITIONS DURING FRIDAY AS A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD EAST LATER FRIDAY.

EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES BOTH FRIDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN ON SATURDAY
AS A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD EAST FROM THE
NATIONS MID SECTION. HIGH TEMPERATURES BY SATURDAY WILL ONCE AGAIN
FALL TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS WITH UPPER 20S TO NEAR 30 NORTH AND
LOW TO MID 30S DOWN EAST.
&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WILL CONTINUE DRY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF TO OUR EAST. THE NEXT
WEATHER SYSTEM WILL THEN APPROACH THE AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND
THROUGH MONDAY. 12Z OP MODELS ARE AT ODDS ON THE TRACK. GFS TAKES
A NORTHERN STREAM LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT AND
THEN EAST ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE DURING MONDAY. THE EC TRACKS
THE LOW WELL OFF TO OUR NORTH AND SWINGS A COLD FRONT FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA WITH LESS IN THE WAY OF QPF. GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
WERE ABOUT EVENLY SPLIT WITH ABOUT HALF TAKING THE LOW TO OUR
NORTH AND THE OTHERS ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE. SUPERBELND WAS
SHOWING CHANCE POPS FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AND WE STAYED WITH
THEM. PRECIPITATION TYPE WAS SNOW OR RAIN. SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS COULD
LINGER INTO TUESDAY DEPENDING ON THE ULTIMATE TRACK OF THE LOW.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO IFR/LIFR LEVELS OVERNIGHT.
GENERALLY EXPECT CONDITIONS TO RANGE FROM MVFR TO IFR ACROSS THE
REGION THURSDAY.

SHORT TERM: IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY KBGR/KBHB
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY IN RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW. VFR
CONDITIONS CAN THEN BE EXPECTED MOST OF FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. IFR/MVFR
IS POSSIBLE IN PRECIP ON MONDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH BUILDING
SEAS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT OVERNIGHT FOR MUCH
OF THE WATERS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE INTRACOASTAL WATERS.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY.
VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN RAIN AND AREAS OF FOG OVERNIGHT
INTO THURSDAY.

SHORT TERM: SEAS COULD CONTINUE AT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
FRIDAY AND THEN A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY CONTINUE FOR
BOTH WINDS/SEAS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL/QPF AMOUNTS STILL LOOK TO BE AROUND 0.50 INCHES EXPECTED
ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF CWA WITH AROUND 1 INCH FOR THE DOWNEAST
REGION INCLUDING THE COAST. THE WARMUP AND PROJECTED RAINFALL WILL
LEAD TO SUBSTANTIAL SNOWMELT AND RUNOFF THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. SOME
ICE MOVEMENT IS POSSIBLE ON THE RIVERS AND STREAMS WITH THE PISCATAQUIS,
PENOBSCOT AND ST. CROIX RIVER BASINS THE MOST PRONE TO THIS POSSIBILITY.
SIGNIFICANT FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED AS THE SNOWPACK SHOULD BE ABLE
TO HANDLE THE THE RAINFALL INITIALLY BEFORE RIPENING ALLOWING FOR
RUNOFF.

THE BIGGER ISSUE W/THE SNOWMELT AND RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO BE
URBAN PROBLEMS DUE TO POOR DRAINAGE AND CLOGGED STORM DRAINS.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...NORCROSS/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...NORCROSS/DUDA
MARINE...NORCROSS/DUDA
HYDROLOGY...HEWITT



000
FXUS61 KCAR 260106
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
906 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL
THEN LIFT ACROSS THE REGION LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPDATE...
A WARM/OCCLUDED FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. A NARROW
BAND OF LIGHT OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION WILL CROSS THE REGION IN
ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. HOWEVER...DRIER AIR WITH RETREATING HIGH
PRESSURE WILL HELP WEAKEN THE BAND. BASED ON CRITICAL
THICKNESSES...GENERALLY EXPECT A SNOW/RAIN MIX ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA WITH LIGHT SLEET ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS. OVERNIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AN INCH OR
LESS. BASED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS...COULD ALSO HAVE POSSIBLE
PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS IN THE
WAKE OF THE BAND OF OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION DEPENDENT ON
TEMPERATURES. LITTLE OR NO ICE ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
AREAS OF FOG WILL ALSO DEVELOP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN STABILIZE OR BEGIN TO
RISE LATER TONIGHT. GENERALLY EXPECT LOW TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TO RANGE FROM AROUND 30 TO THE LOWER 30S. HAVE
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADJUST FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS ALONG WITH
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES...CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION
TYPES/CHANCES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
FOR THURSDAY, THE CWA GETS IN THE WARM SECTOR W/A GOOD DEAL OF
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ESPECIALLY W/THE WARM AIR OVER THE MELTING
SNOW. DECIDED TO STAY W/THE MIDNIGHT CREW`S ASSESSMENT OF THIS
TAKING PLACE. SOUNDING PROFILES SHOW THE WIND FIELD VEERING TO WSW
AND SOME DRYING IN THE MID LEVELS. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR A BRIEF
PERIOD OF SUNSHINE WHICH IN TURN WILL ALLOW FOR SOME MIXING OF A
40 KT JET AT 4K FT AS THE FRONT TO THE W APPROACHES. WIND GUSTS TO
UP TO 35 MPH ARE POSSIBLE FROM LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS DEEPER MOISTURE WORKS BACK INTO THE
REGION W/THE APPROACH OF LOW PRES FROM THE SW ALONG THE APCHG
FRONT. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SW TO NE BY THE AFTERNOON. THE
LATEST RUNS OF THE NAM/GFS/CANADIAN GEM POINT TO TEMPERATURES
FALLING BACK IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WEST AND NW WHERE RAIN
COULD CHANGE TO SNOW MAINLY N & W OF CARIBOU AND PRESQUE ISLE.
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO WARM INTO THE 40S FOR JUST ABOUT THE
ENTIRE CWA W/INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE DOWNEAST HITTING AROUND 50F.
SEE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW FOR RAINFALL AND IMPACTS.
&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTHEAST ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SITUATED ALONG THE DOWN EAST COAST THURSDAY EVENING WILL MOVE TO
THE EAST OF THE GULF OF MAINE BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY. MODEL CONSENSUS
IS NOW SHOWING THE LOW WILL PASS JUST OFF SHORE OF THE DOWN EAST
COAST. EXPECT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WITH THIS SYSTEM TO DECREASE
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH WITH THE CROWN OF MAINE AND SAINT JOHN VALLEY
SEEING LITTLE IN THE WAY OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION.

PRECIPITATION WILL BE TAPERING OFF FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
THURSDAY EVENING AS THE WAVE LIFTS NORTHEAST. AS IT DOES SO, RAIN
WILL GRADUALLY CHANGE TO SNOW ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SNOW MAY ACCUMULATE A COUPLE INCHES ACROSS CENTRAL AREAS
AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF INTERIOR DOWN EAST MAINE.

ANY LINGERING SNOW ACROSS DOWN EAST AREAS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WILL
END BY MID MORNING. IT WONT BE AS MILD FRIDAY BUT TEMPERATURES
WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. OTHERWISE EXPECT
IMPROVING CONDITIONS DURING FRIDAY AS A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD EAST LATER FRIDAY.

EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES BOTH FRIDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN ON SATURDAY
AS A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD EAST FROM THE
NATIONS MID SECTION. HIGH TEMPERATURES BY SATURDAY WILL ONCE AGAIN
FALL TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS WITH UPPER 20S TO NEAR 30 NORTH AND
LOW TO MID 30S DOWN EAST.
&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WILL CONTINUE DRY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF TO OUR EAST. THE NEXT
WEATHER SYSTEM WILL THEN APPROACH THE AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND
THROUGH MONDAY. 12Z OP MODELS ARE AT ODDS ON THE TRACK. GFS TAKES
A NORTHERN STREAM LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT AND
THEN EAST ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE DURING MONDAY. THE EC TRACKS
THE LOW WELL OFF TO OUR NORTH AND SWINGS A COLD FRONT FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA WITH LESS IN THE WAY OF QPF. GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
WERE ABOUT EVENLY SPLIT WITH ABOUT HALF TAKING THE LOW TO OUR
NORTH AND THE OTHERS ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE. SUPERBELND WAS
SHOWING CHANCE POPS FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AND WE STAYED WITH
THEM. PRECIPITATION TYPE WAS SNOW OR RAIN. SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS COULD
LINGER INTO TUESDAY DEPENDING ON THE ULTIMATE TRACK OF THE LOW.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING WILL LOWER TO IFR/LIFR
LEVELS OVERNIGHT. GENERALLY EXPECT CONDITIONS TO RANGE FROM MVFR
TO IFR ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY.

SHORT TERM: IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY KBGR/KBHB
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY IN RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW. VFR
CONDITIONS CAN THEN BE EXPECTED MOST OF FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. IFR/MVFR
IS POSSIBLE IN PRECIP ON MONDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH BUILDING
SEAS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT OVERNIGHT FOR MUCH
OF THE WATERS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE INTRACOASTAL WATERS.
HOWEVER...THE INTRACOASTAL WATERS MIGHT NEED TO BE INCLUDED IN
THE ADVISORY WITH THE NEXT UPDATE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN RAIN AND
AREAS OF FOG OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

SHORT TERM: SEAS COULD CONTINUE AT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
FRIDAY AND THEN A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY CONTINUE FOR
BOTH WINDS/SEAS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL/QPF AMOUNTS STILL LOOK TO BE AROUND 0.50 INCHES EXPECTED
ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF CWA WITH AROUND 1 INCH FOR THE DOWNEAST
REGION INCLUDING THE COAST. THE WARMUP AND PROJECTED RAINFALL WILL
LEAD TO SUBSTANTIAL SNOWMELT AND RUNOFF THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. SOME
ICE MOVEMENT IS POSSIBLE ON THE RIVERS AND STREAMS WITH THE PISCATAQUIS,
PENOBSCOT AND ST. CROIX RIVER BASINS THE MOST PRONE TO THIS POSSIBILITY.
SIGNIFICANT FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED AS THE SNOWPACK SHOULD BE ABLE
TO HANDLE THE THE RAINFALL INITIALLY BEFORE RIPENING ALLOWING FOR
RUNOFF.

THE BIGGER ISSUE W/THE SNOWMELT AND RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO BE
URBAN PROBLEMS DUE TO POOR DRAINAGE AND CLOGGED STORM DRAINS.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...NORCROSS/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...NORCROSS/DUDA
MARINE...NORCROSS/DUDA
HYDROLOGY...HEWITT



000
FXUS61 KCAR 260106
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
906 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL
THEN LIFT ACROSS THE REGION LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPDATE...
A WARM/OCCLUDED FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. A NARROW
BAND OF LIGHT OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION WILL CROSS THE REGION IN
ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. HOWEVER...DRIER AIR WITH RETREATING HIGH
PRESSURE WILL HELP WEAKEN THE BAND. BASED ON CRITICAL
THICKNESSES...GENERALLY EXPECT A SNOW/RAIN MIX ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA WITH LIGHT SLEET ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS. OVERNIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AN INCH OR
LESS. BASED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS...COULD ALSO HAVE POSSIBLE
PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS IN THE
WAKE OF THE BAND OF OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION DEPENDENT ON
TEMPERATURES. LITTLE OR NO ICE ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
AREAS OF FOG WILL ALSO DEVELOP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN STABILIZE OR BEGIN TO
RISE LATER TONIGHT. GENERALLY EXPECT LOW TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TO RANGE FROM AROUND 30 TO THE LOWER 30S. HAVE
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADJUST FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS ALONG WITH
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES...CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION
TYPES/CHANCES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
FOR THURSDAY, THE CWA GETS IN THE WARM SECTOR W/A GOOD DEAL OF
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ESPECIALLY W/THE WARM AIR OVER THE MELTING
SNOW. DECIDED TO STAY W/THE MIDNIGHT CREW`S ASSESSMENT OF THIS
TAKING PLACE. SOUNDING PROFILES SHOW THE WIND FIELD VEERING TO WSW
AND SOME DRYING IN THE MID LEVELS. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR A BRIEF
PERIOD OF SUNSHINE WHICH IN TURN WILL ALLOW FOR SOME MIXING OF A
40 KT JET AT 4K FT AS THE FRONT TO THE W APPROACHES. WIND GUSTS TO
UP TO 35 MPH ARE POSSIBLE FROM LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS DEEPER MOISTURE WORKS BACK INTO THE
REGION W/THE APPROACH OF LOW PRES FROM THE SW ALONG THE APCHG
FRONT. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SW TO NE BY THE AFTERNOON. THE
LATEST RUNS OF THE NAM/GFS/CANADIAN GEM POINT TO TEMPERATURES
FALLING BACK IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WEST AND NW WHERE RAIN
COULD CHANGE TO SNOW MAINLY N & W OF CARIBOU AND PRESQUE ISLE.
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO WARM INTO THE 40S FOR JUST ABOUT THE
ENTIRE CWA W/INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE DOWNEAST HITTING AROUND 50F.
SEE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW FOR RAINFALL AND IMPACTS.
&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTHEAST ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SITUATED ALONG THE DOWN EAST COAST THURSDAY EVENING WILL MOVE TO
THE EAST OF THE GULF OF MAINE BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY. MODEL CONSENSUS
IS NOW SHOWING THE LOW WILL PASS JUST OFF SHORE OF THE DOWN EAST
COAST. EXPECT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WITH THIS SYSTEM TO DECREASE
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH WITH THE CROWN OF MAINE AND SAINT JOHN VALLEY
SEEING LITTLE IN THE WAY OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION.

PRECIPITATION WILL BE TAPERING OFF FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
THURSDAY EVENING AS THE WAVE LIFTS NORTHEAST. AS IT DOES SO, RAIN
WILL GRADUALLY CHANGE TO SNOW ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SNOW MAY ACCUMULATE A COUPLE INCHES ACROSS CENTRAL AREAS
AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF INTERIOR DOWN EAST MAINE.

ANY LINGERING SNOW ACROSS DOWN EAST AREAS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WILL
END BY MID MORNING. IT WONT BE AS MILD FRIDAY BUT TEMPERATURES
WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. OTHERWISE EXPECT
IMPROVING CONDITIONS DURING FRIDAY AS A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD EAST LATER FRIDAY.

EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES BOTH FRIDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN ON SATURDAY
AS A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD EAST FROM THE
NATIONS MID SECTION. HIGH TEMPERATURES BY SATURDAY WILL ONCE AGAIN
FALL TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS WITH UPPER 20S TO NEAR 30 NORTH AND
LOW TO MID 30S DOWN EAST.
&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WILL CONTINUE DRY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF TO OUR EAST. THE NEXT
WEATHER SYSTEM WILL THEN APPROACH THE AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND
THROUGH MONDAY. 12Z OP MODELS ARE AT ODDS ON THE TRACK. GFS TAKES
A NORTHERN STREAM LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT AND
THEN EAST ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE DURING MONDAY. THE EC TRACKS
THE LOW WELL OFF TO OUR NORTH AND SWINGS A COLD FRONT FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA WITH LESS IN THE WAY OF QPF. GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
WERE ABOUT EVENLY SPLIT WITH ABOUT HALF TAKING THE LOW TO OUR
NORTH AND THE OTHERS ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE. SUPERBELND WAS
SHOWING CHANCE POPS FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AND WE STAYED WITH
THEM. PRECIPITATION TYPE WAS SNOW OR RAIN. SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS COULD
LINGER INTO TUESDAY DEPENDING ON THE ULTIMATE TRACK OF THE LOW.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING WILL LOWER TO IFR/LIFR
LEVELS OVERNIGHT. GENERALLY EXPECT CONDITIONS TO RANGE FROM MVFR
TO IFR ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY.

SHORT TERM: IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY KBGR/KBHB
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY IN RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW. VFR
CONDITIONS CAN THEN BE EXPECTED MOST OF FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. IFR/MVFR
IS POSSIBLE IN PRECIP ON MONDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH BUILDING
SEAS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT OVERNIGHT FOR MUCH
OF THE WATERS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE INTRACOASTAL WATERS.
HOWEVER...THE INTRACOASTAL WATERS MIGHT NEED TO BE INCLUDED IN
THE ADVISORY WITH THE NEXT UPDATE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN RAIN AND
AREAS OF FOG OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

SHORT TERM: SEAS COULD CONTINUE AT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
FRIDAY AND THEN A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY CONTINUE FOR
BOTH WINDS/SEAS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL/QPF AMOUNTS STILL LOOK TO BE AROUND 0.50 INCHES EXPECTED
ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF CWA WITH AROUND 1 INCH FOR THE DOWNEAST
REGION INCLUDING THE COAST. THE WARMUP AND PROJECTED RAINFALL WILL
LEAD TO SUBSTANTIAL SNOWMELT AND RUNOFF THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. SOME
ICE MOVEMENT IS POSSIBLE ON THE RIVERS AND STREAMS WITH THE PISCATAQUIS,
PENOBSCOT AND ST. CROIX RIVER BASINS THE MOST PRONE TO THIS POSSIBILITY.
SIGNIFICANT FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED AS THE SNOWPACK SHOULD BE ABLE
TO HANDLE THE THE RAINFALL INITIALLY BEFORE RIPENING ALLOWING FOR
RUNOFF.

THE BIGGER ISSUE W/THE SNOWMELT AND RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO BE
URBAN PROBLEMS DUE TO POOR DRAINAGE AND CLOGGED STORM DRAINS.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...NORCROSS/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...NORCROSS/DUDA
MARINE...NORCROSS/DUDA
HYDROLOGY...HEWITT



000
FXUS61 KCAR 260106
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
906 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL
THEN LIFT ACROSS THE REGION LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPDATE...
A WARM/OCCLUDED FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. A NARROW
BAND OF LIGHT OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION WILL CROSS THE REGION IN
ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. HOWEVER...DRIER AIR WITH RETREATING HIGH
PRESSURE WILL HELP WEAKEN THE BAND. BASED ON CRITICAL
THICKNESSES...GENERALLY EXPECT A SNOW/RAIN MIX ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA WITH LIGHT SLEET ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS. OVERNIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AN INCH OR
LESS. BASED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS...COULD ALSO HAVE POSSIBLE
PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS IN THE
WAKE OF THE BAND OF OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION DEPENDENT ON
TEMPERATURES. LITTLE OR NO ICE ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
AREAS OF FOG WILL ALSO DEVELOP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN STABILIZE OR BEGIN TO
RISE LATER TONIGHT. GENERALLY EXPECT LOW TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TO RANGE FROM AROUND 30 TO THE LOWER 30S. HAVE
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADJUST FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS ALONG WITH
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES...CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION
TYPES/CHANCES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
FOR THURSDAY, THE CWA GETS IN THE WARM SECTOR W/A GOOD DEAL OF
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ESPECIALLY W/THE WARM AIR OVER THE MELTING
SNOW. DECIDED TO STAY W/THE MIDNIGHT CREW`S ASSESSMENT OF THIS
TAKING PLACE. SOUNDING PROFILES SHOW THE WIND FIELD VEERING TO WSW
AND SOME DRYING IN THE MID LEVELS. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR A BRIEF
PERIOD OF SUNSHINE WHICH IN TURN WILL ALLOW FOR SOME MIXING OF A
40 KT JET AT 4K FT AS THE FRONT TO THE W APPROACHES. WIND GUSTS TO
UP TO 35 MPH ARE POSSIBLE FROM LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS DEEPER MOISTURE WORKS BACK INTO THE
REGION W/THE APPROACH OF LOW PRES FROM THE SW ALONG THE APCHG
FRONT. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SW TO NE BY THE AFTERNOON. THE
LATEST RUNS OF THE NAM/GFS/CANADIAN GEM POINT TO TEMPERATURES
FALLING BACK IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WEST AND NW WHERE RAIN
COULD CHANGE TO SNOW MAINLY N & W OF CARIBOU AND PRESQUE ISLE.
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO WARM INTO THE 40S FOR JUST ABOUT THE
ENTIRE CWA W/INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE DOWNEAST HITTING AROUND 50F.
SEE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW FOR RAINFALL AND IMPACTS.
&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTHEAST ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SITUATED ALONG THE DOWN EAST COAST THURSDAY EVENING WILL MOVE TO
THE EAST OF THE GULF OF MAINE BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY. MODEL CONSENSUS
IS NOW SHOWING THE LOW WILL PASS JUST OFF SHORE OF THE DOWN EAST
COAST. EXPECT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WITH THIS SYSTEM TO DECREASE
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH WITH THE CROWN OF MAINE AND SAINT JOHN VALLEY
SEEING LITTLE IN THE WAY OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION.

PRECIPITATION WILL BE TAPERING OFF FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
THURSDAY EVENING AS THE WAVE LIFTS NORTHEAST. AS IT DOES SO, RAIN
WILL GRADUALLY CHANGE TO SNOW ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SNOW MAY ACCUMULATE A COUPLE INCHES ACROSS CENTRAL AREAS
AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF INTERIOR DOWN EAST MAINE.

ANY LINGERING SNOW ACROSS DOWN EAST AREAS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WILL
END BY MID MORNING. IT WONT BE AS MILD FRIDAY BUT TEMPERATURES
WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. OTHERWISE EXPECT
IMPROVING CONDITIONS DURING FRIDAY AS A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD EAST LATER FRIDAY.

EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES BOTH FRIDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN ON SATURDAY
AS A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD EAST FROM THE
NATIONS MID SECTION. HIGH TEMPERATURES BY SATURDAY WILL ONCE AGAIN
FALL TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS WITH UPPER 20S TO NEAR 30 NORTH AND
LOW TO MID 30S DOWN EAST.
&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WILL CONTINUE DRY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF TO OUR EAST. THE NEXT
WEATHER SYSTEM WILL THEN APPROACH THE AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND
THROUGH MONDAY. 12Z OP MODELS ARE AT ODDS ON THE TRACK. GFS TAKES
A NORTHERN STREAM LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT AND
THEN EAST ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE DURING MONDAY. THE EC TRACKS
THE LOW WELL OFF TO OUR NORTH AND SWINGS A COLD FRONT FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA WITH LESS IN THE WAY OF QPF. GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
WERE ABOUT EVENLY SPLIT WITH ABOUT HALF TAKING THE LOW TO OUR
NORTH AND THE OTHERS ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE. SUPERBELND WAS
SHOWING CHANCE POPS FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AND WE STAYED WITH
THEM. PRECIPITATION TYPE WAS SNOW OR RAIN. SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS COULD
LINGER INTO TUESDAY DEPENDING ON THE ULTIMATE TRACK OF THE LOW.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING WILL LOWER TO IFR/LIFR
LEVELS OVERNIGHT. GENERALLY EXPECT CONDITIONS TO RANGE FROM MVFR
TO IFR ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY.

SHORT TERM: IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY KBGR/KBHB
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY IN RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW. VFR
CONDITIONS CAN THEN BE EXPECTED MOST OF FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. IFR/MVFR
IS POSSIBLE IN PRECIP ON MONDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH BUILDING
SEAS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT OVERNIGHT FOR MUCH
OF THE WATERS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE INTRACOASTAL WATERS.
HOWEVER...THE INTRACOASTAL WATERS MIGHT NEED TO BE INCLUDED IN
THE ADVISORY WITH THE NEXT UPDATE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN RAIN AND
AREAS OF FOG OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

SHORT TERM: SEAS COULD CONTINUE AT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
FRIDAY AND THEN A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY CONTINUE FOR
BOTH WINDS/SEAS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL/QPF AMOUNTS STILL LOOK TO BE AROUND 0.50 INCHES EXPECTED
ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF CWA WITH AROUND 1 INCH FOR THE DOWNEAST
REGION INCLUDING THE COAST. THE WARMUP AND PROJECTED RAINFALL WILL
LEAD TO SUBSTANTIAL SNOWMELT AND RUNOFF THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. SOME
ICE MOVEMENT IS POSSIBLE ON THE RIVERS AND STREAMS WITH THE PISCATAQUIS,
PENOBSCOT AND ST. CROIX RIVER BASINS THE MOST PRONE TO THIS POSSIBILITY.
SIGNIFICANT FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED AS THE SNOWPACK SHOULD BE ABLE
TO HANDLE THE THE RAINFALL INITIALLY BEFORE RIPENING ALLOWING FOR
RUNOFF.

THE BIGGER ISSUE W/THE SNOWMELT AND RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO BE
URBAN PROBLEMS DUE TO POOR DRAINAGE AND CLOGGED STORM DRAINS.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...NORCROSS/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...NORCROSS/DUDA
MARINE...NORCROSS/DUDA
HYDROLOGY...HEWITT




000
FXUS61 KGYX 252248
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
648 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION TONIGHT AND MOVE THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND PUSH A
COLD FRONT OFF THE COAST FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL WILL MOVE
THROUGH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
645 PM...FORECAST UPDATES INCLUDES TWEAKS TO TIMING OF PRECIP
WITH INITIAL WAA AND FOCUSING IT AROUND THIS EVENING. ALSO...BIG
T/TD SPREADS SHOULD KEEP PRECIP FROM RACHING THE GROUND INITIALLY
AND ALSO WILL WET BULB ENOUGH TO MIX WITH SOME IP/SN IN MOST
PLACES...FOR A BRIEF PERIOD ANYWAY...BUT MOST PLACES ON THE
COASTAL PLAIN WILL MOVE TO RAIN FARILY QUICKLY. IN THE HILLS AND
MTNS COULD SEE A LONGER PERIOD OF SN/IP...BUIT ACCUMS WILL BE
CLOSER TO A COATING OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS. IN THE MTNS COULD SEE UP
TO AN INCH OF SNOW BEFORE IT MIXES WITH OR CHANGES TO RA...AND MAY
EVEN BE A FEW SPOTS HERE WHERE IT WILL END AS A SHORT PERIOD FZRA
LATE TONIGHT.

PREVIOUSLY...WATER VAPOR AND IR IMAGERY SHOW WARM AIR ADVECTION
REGIME IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN APPROACHING FROM THE SW. S FLOW
TODAY HAS GONE A LONG WAY IN SATURATING THE COLUMN AND SHOWERS
HAVE BEGUN IN NEW YORK STATE ALREADY. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED UP
NICELY TODAY AND WILL FALL ONLY A FEW DEGREES TONIGHT BEFORE
INCREASING AGAIN AS THE WARM FRONT ARRIVES. THE FIRST WAVE OF
PRECIPITATION WILL MOSTLY FALL AS RAIN BUT THERE MAY BE SOME SNOW
AND SLEET MIXING IN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
PRECIP DIMINISHES AFTER MIDNIGHT AS DRY AIR WORKS IN FROM THE SW
BEHIND THE INITIAL CYCLONE. THURSDAY WILL BE WARM... IN THE 40S
AND 50S... AND HUMID AS WELL MAKING IT SEEM EVEN WARMER THAN IT
IS. THERE WILL ONLY BE A FEW HOURS IN THE MORNING HOURS WITHOUT
PRECIP BEFORE THE NEXT ROUND ARRIVES. THE DEEP TROUGH CURRENTLY
POSING A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IN THE PLAINS TRANSLATES EAST
TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES BY EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
PROMPT SECONDARY CYCLOGENESIS NEAR THE JERSEY COAST. A STRONG
SPRINGTIME UPPER LEVEL JET WILL HELP PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A HIGHER CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW AS
PRECIPITATION INTERACTS WITH THE ANAFRONT SET UP...STILL LESS THAN
ADVISORY CRITERIA AND MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. A
COLD FRONT WILL SLIP OFF THE COAST FRIDAY. MODELS SHOW UPPER LEVEL
SHORT WAVE HANGING BACK BEHIND THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
SATURDAY SO HAVE INTRODUCED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
FOR SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE THEN. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY. NEXT A COLD FRONT APPROACHES MONDAY WITH THE
GFS PUSHING A SURFACE LOW THROUGH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THE ECMWF KEEPS MAIN SURFACE LOW TO OUR NORTH IN
SOUTHERN CANADA WITH ANOTHER LOW DEVELOPING WELL EAST OF OUR AREA
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...SCATTERED SHRA/SHSN WILL BRING MVFR CONDITIONS OR
LOWER TO THE REGION BEGINNING 00Z TONIGHT. DEEP MOISTURE CONTINUES
AND DOES NOT IMPROVE MUCH BEFORE THE NEXT ROUND OF PRECIPITATION
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY. SOME
ISOLATED MVFR POSSIBLE SATURDAY IN SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE IN
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SCA ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH TOMORROW
MORNING AND WILL LIKELY BE EXTENDED FOR WAVES.

LONG TERM...SCA WINDS POSSIBLE SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WARMER WEATHER AND ONE HALF TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF RAIN
WILL INDUCE SOME RUNOFF IN SOUTHERN LOCATIONS. WILL LIKELY SEE
SOME RISES ON SOUTHERN RIVERS. AT THE CURRENT TIME DONT EXPECT
ANY ISSUES. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR ICE MOVEMENT THOUGH.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ153.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ150>152-
     154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
HYDROLOGY...



000
FXUS61 KGYX 252248
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
648 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION TONIGHT AND MOVE THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND PUSH A
COLD FRONT OFF THE COAST FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL WILL MOVE
THROUGH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
645 PM...FORECAST UPDATES INCLUDES TWEAKS TO TIMING OF PRECIP
WITH INITIAL WAA AND FOCUSING IT AROUND THIS EVENING. ALSO...BIG
T/TD SPREADS SHOULD KEEP PRECIP FROM RACHING THE GROUND INITIALLY
AND ALSO WILL WET BULB ENOUGH TO MIX WITH SOME IP/SN IN MOST
PLACES...FOR A BRIEF PERIOD ANYWAY...BUT MOST PLACES ON THE
COASTAL PLAIN WILL MOVE TO RAIN FARILY QUICKLY. IN THE HILLS AND
MTNS COULD SEE A LONGER PERIOD OF SN/IP...BUIT ACCUMS WILL BE
CLOSER TO A COATING OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS. IN THE MTNS COULD SEE UP
TO AN INCH OF SNOW BEFORE IT MIXES WITH OR CHANGES TO RA...AND MAY
EVEN BE A FEW SPOTS HERE WHERE IT WILL END AS A SHORT PERIOD FZRA
LATE TONIGHT.

PREVIOUSLY...WATER VAPOR AND IR IMAGERY SHOW WARM AIR ADVECTION
REGIME IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN APPROACHING FROM THE SW. S FLOW
TODAY HAS GONE A LONG WAY IN SATURATING THE COLUMN AND SHOWERS
HAVE BEGUN IN NEW YORK STATE ALREADY. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED UP
NICELY TODAY AND WILL FALL ONLY A FEW DEGREES TONIGHT BEFORE
INCREASING AGAIN AS THE WARM FRONT ARRIVES. THE FIRST WAVE OF
PRECIPITATION WILL MOSTLY FALL AS RAIN BUT THERE MAY BE SOME SNOW
AND SLEET MIXING IN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
PRECIP DIMINISHES AFTER MIDNIGHT AS DRY AIR WORKS IN FROM THE SW
BEHIND THE INITIAL CYCLONE. THURSDAY WILL BE WARM... IN THE 40S
AND 50S... AND HUMID AS WELL MAKING IT SEEM EVEN WARMER THAN IT
IS. THERE WILL ONLY BE A FEW HOURS IN THE MORNING HOURS WITHOUT
PRECIP BEFORE THE NEXT ROUND ARRIVES. THE DEEP TROUGH CURRENTLY
POSING A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IN THE PLAINS TRANSLATES EAST
TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES BY EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
PROMPT SECONDARY CYCLOGENESIS NEAR THE JERSEY COAST. A STRONG
SPRINGTIME UPPER LEVEL JET WILL HELP PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A HIGHER CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW AS
PRECIPITATION INTERACTS WITH THE ANAFRONT SET UP...STILL LESS THAN
ADVISORY CRITERIA AND MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. A
COLD FRONT WILL SLIP OFF THE COAST FRIDAY. MODELS SHOW UPPER LEVEL
SHORT WAVE HANGING BACK BEHIND THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
SATURDAY SO HAVE INTRODUCED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
FOR SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE THEN. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY. NEXT A COLD FRONT APPROACHES MONDAY WITH THE
GFS PUSHING A SURFACE LOW THROUGH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THE ECMWF KEEPS MAIN SURFACE LOW TO OUR NORTH IN
SOUTHERN CANADA WITH ANOTHER LOW DEVELOPING WELL EAST OF OUR AREA
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...SCATTERED SHRA/SHSN WILL BRING MVFR CONDITIONS OR
LOWER TO THE REGION BEGINNING 00Z TONIGHT. DEEP MOISTURE CONTINUES
AND DOES NOT IMPROVE MUCH BEFORE THE NEXT ROUND OF PRECIPITATION
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY. SOME
ISOLATED MVFR POSSIBLE SATURDAY IN SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE IN
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SCA ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH TOMORROW
MORNING AND WILL LIKELY BE EXTENDED FOR WAVES.

LONG TERM...SCA WINDS POSSIBLE SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WARMER WEATHER AND ONE HALF TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF RAIN
WILL INDUCE SOME RUNOFF IN SOUTHERN LOCATIONS. WILL LIKELY SEE
SOME RISES ON SOUTHERN RIVERS. AT THE CURRENT TIME DONT EXPECT
ANY ISSUES. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR ICE MOVEMENT THOUGH.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ153.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ150>152-
     154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
HYDROLOGY...




000
FXUS61 KCAR 252030
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
430 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST THIS EVENING. A WARM FRONT WILL
CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. LOW PRESSURE
WILL CROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
19Z SFC ANALYSIS HAD THE HIGH PRES RIDING CONTINUING ITS MOVE TO
THE E. MID/HIGH CLOUDS CAN BE SEEN ON THE LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY ADVANCING TOWARD WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. THESE CLOUDS WILL
PUSH INTO THE CWA THIS EVENING AND LOWER OVERNIGHT IN ADVANCE OF
A WARM OCCLUSION. THIS WARM OCCLUSION LOOKS LIKE IT WILL PUSH
THROUGH PRETTY QUICK W/A SW FLOW ALOFT. DEWPOINTS STILL IN THE
TEENS AND W/CLEAR SKIES TO START THE EVENING, SOME COOLING IS
EXPECTED AS TEMPERATURES DROP BACK AOB FREEZING AS FAR S AS THE
DOWNEAST COAST. THE 12Z RUN OF THE NAM APPEARED TO HAVE A GOOD
HANDLE ON THINGS IN REGARDS TO THIS OCCLUSION. A DECENT JET(50
KTS) RESIDES AT 850-700MBS ALLOWING FOR LIFT. SOUNDINGS SHOW
PROFILE MOISTENING UP AFTER 03Z W/THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT WET
SNOW AT THE ONSET. AS THE WARMER AIR BEGINS TO WORK IN QUICKLY,
SNOW WILL CHANGE TO A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN AND PERHAPS SLEET.
THIS WILL BE BRIEF AND MAINLY NORTH OF THE BANGOR- CALAIS REGION
AND THEN THE PRECIP SHUTS OFF AS THE BEST FORCING MOVES INTO NEW
BRUNSWICK. THERE COULD BE PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE BEFORE THE
PRECIP SHUTS OFF. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY WARM INTO
THE MID AND UPPER 30S BY DAYBREAK. AREAS OF FOG EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY TOWARDS BANGOR AND THE COAST.
ANY SNOWFALL WILL LESS THAN AN INCH AND THIS WILL BE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN SECTIONS. ACCUMULATION OF FREEZING PRECIP WILL BE
NEGLIGIBLE.

FOR THURSDAY, THE CWA GETS IN THE WARM SECTOR W/A GOOD DEAL OF LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG ESPECIALLY W/THE WARM AIR OVER THE MELTING SNOW.
DECIDED TO STAY W/THE MIDNIGHT CREW`S ASSESSMENT OF THIS TAKING
PLACE. SOUNDING PROFILES SHOW THE WIND FIELD VEERING TO WSW AND
SOME DRYING IN THE MID LEVELS. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR A BRIEF
PERIOD OF SUNSHINE WHICH IN TURN WILL ALLOW FOR SOME MIXING OF A
40 KT JET AT 4K FT AS THE FRONT TO THE W APPROACHES. WIND GUSTS TO
UP TO 35 MPH ARE POSSIBLE FROM LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS DEEPER MOISTURE WORKS BACK INTO THE
REGION W/THE APPROACH OF LOW PRES FROM THE SW ALONG THE APCHG
FRONT. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SW TO NE BY THE AFTERNOON. THE
LATEST RUNS OF THE NAM/GFS/CANADIAN GEM POINT TO TEMPERATURES
FALLING BACK IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WEST AND NW WHERE RAIN
COULD CHANGE TO SNOW MAINLY N & W OF CARIBOU AND PRESQUE ISLE.
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO WARM INTO THE 40S FOR JUST ABOUT THE
ENTIRE CWA W/INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE DOWNEAST HITTING AROUND 50F.
SEE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW FOR RAINFALL AND IMPACTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTHEAST ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SITUATED ALONG THE DOWN EAST COAST THURSDAY EVENING WILL MOVE TO
THE EAST OF THE GULF OF MAINE BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY. MODEL CONSENSUS
IS NOW SHOWING THE LOW WILL PASS JUST OFF SHORE OF THE DOWN EAST
COAST. EXPECT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WITH THIS SYSTEM TO DECREASE
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH WITH THE CROWN OF MAINE AND SAINT JOHN VALLEY
SEEING LITTLE IN THE WAY OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION.

PRECIPITATION WILL BE TAPERING OFF FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
THURSDAY EVENING AS THE WAVE LIFTS NORTHEAST. AS IT DOES SO, RAIN
WILL GRADUALLY CHANGE TO SNOW ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SNOW MAY ACCUMULATE A COUPLE INCHES ACROSS CENTRAL AREAS
AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF INTERIOR DOWN EAST MAINE.

ANY LINGERING SNOW ACROSS DOWN EAST AREAS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WILL
END BY MID MORNING. IT WONT BE AS MILD FRIDAY BUT TEMPERATURES
WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. OTHERWISE EXPECT
IMPROVING CONDITIONS DURING FRIDAY AS A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD EAST LATER FRIDAY.

EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES BOTH FRIDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN ON SATURDAY
AS A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD EAST FROM THE
NATIONS MID SECTION. HIGH TEMPERATURES BY SATURDAY WILL ONCE AGAIN
FALL TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS WITH UPPER 20S TO NEAR 30 NORTH AND
LOW TO MID 30S DOWN EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WILL CONTINUE DRY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF TO OUR EAST. THE NEXT
WEATHER SYSTEM WILL THEN APPROACH THE AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND
THROUGH MONDAY. 12Z OP MODELS ARE AT ODDS ON THE TRACK. GFS TAKES
A NORTHEN STREAM LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN
EAST ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE DURING MONDAY. THE EC TRACKS THE
LOW WELL OFF TO OUR NORTH AND SWINGS A COLD FRONT FRONT THROUGH
THE AREA WITH LESS IN THE WAY OF QPF. GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS WERE
ABOUT EVENLY SPLIT WITH ABOUT HALF TAKING THE LOW TO OUR NORTH AND
THE OTHERS ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE. SUPERBELND WAS SHOWING CHANCE
POPS FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AND WE STAYED WITH THEM. PRECIPITATION
TYPE WAS SNOW OR RAIN. SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS COULD LINGER INTO TUESDAY
DEPENDING ON THE ULTIMATE TRACK OF THE LOW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN FOR WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR THROUGH LATE EVENING. A SHORT BURST OF SNOW WILL
LEAD TO IFR CONDITIONS AFTER MIDNIGHT. AFTER THAT...CIGS WILL RANGE
FROM MVFR TO IFR INTO THURSDAY MORNING. AREAS OF FOG ARE EXPECTED
TO MOVE INTO BGR AND BHB LATER TONIGHT AND OVERSPREAD THE REST OF
THE CWA ON THURSDAY. LLWS POSSIBLE AS A LLVL JET OF 45 KTS IS EXPECTED
ABOVE 4K FT. THEREFORE, SOME GUSTS TO 30 KTS POSSIBLE INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.
A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR AND PERHAPS VFR ON THURSDAY, BUT CONDITIONS
LOOK LIKE THEY WILL DROP BACK TO MVFR AND THEN IFR BY THE AFTERNOON
W/RAIN MOVING BACK INTO THE REGION.

SHORT TERM: IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY KBGR/KBHB
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY IN RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW. VFR
CONDITIONS CAN THEN BE EXPECTED MOST OF FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. IFR/MVFR
IS POSSIBLE IN PRECIP ON MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN UP THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING AS WIND GUSTS COULD HIT 30 KTS MAINLY OVER THE
OUTER ZONES. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO APCH 6-7 FT. WINDS ARE FORECAST
TO DROP OFF AS THE OCCLUDED FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE WATERS.

SHORT TERM: SEAS COULD CONTINUE AT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
FRIDAY AND THEN A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY CONTINUE FOR
BOTH WINDS/SEAS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL/QPF AMOUNTS STILL LOOK TO BE AROUND 0.50 INCHES EXPECTED
ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF CWA WITH AROUND 1 INCH FOR THE DOWNEAST
REGION INCLUDING THE COAST. THE WARMUP AND PROJECTED RAINFALL WILL
LEAD TO SUBSTANTIAL SNOWMELT AND RUNOFF THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. SOME
ICE MOVEMENT IS POSSIBLE ON THE RIVERS AND STREAMS WITH THE PISCATAQUIS,
PENOBSCOT AND ST. CROIX RIVER BASINS THE MOST PRONE TO THIS POSSIBILITY.
SIGNIFICANT FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED AS THE SNOWPACK SHOULD BE ABLE
TO HANDLE THE THE RAINFALL INITIALLY BEFORE RIPENING ALLOWING FOR
RUNOFF.

THE BIGGER ISSUE W/THE SNOWMELT AND RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO BE
URBAN PROBLEMS DUE TO POOR DRAINAGE AND CLOGGED STORM DRAINS.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HEWITT
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...HEWITT/DUDA
MARINE...HEWITT/DUDA
HYDROLOGY...HEWITT



000
FXUS61 KCAR 252030
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
430 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST THIS EVENING. A WARM FRONT WILL
CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. LOW PRESSURE
WILL CROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
19Z SFC ANALYSIS HAD THE HIGH PRES RIDING CONTINUING ITS MOVE TO
THE E. MID/HIGH CLOUDS CAN BE SEEN ON THE LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY ADVANCING TOWARD WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. THESE CLOUDS WILL
PUSH INTO THE CWA THIS EVENING AND LOWER OVERNIGHT IN ADVANCE OF
A WARM OCCLUSION. THIS WARM OCCLUSION LOOKS LIKE IT WILL PUSH
THROUGH PRETTY QUICK W/A SW FLOW ALOFT. DEWPOINTS STILL IN THE
TEENS AND W/CLEAR SKIES TO START THE EVENING, SOME COOLING IS
EXPECTED AS TEMPERATURES DROP BACK AOB FREEZING AS FAR S AS THE
DOWNEAST COAST. THE 12Z RUN OF THE NAM APPEARED TO HAVE A GOOD
HANDLE ON THINGS IN REGARDS TO THIS OCCLUSION. A DECENT JET(50
KTS) RESIDES AT 850-700MBS ALLOWING FOR LIFT. SOUNDINGS SHOW
PROFILE MOISTENING UP AFTER 03Z W/THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT WET
SNOW AT THE ONSET. AS THE WARMER AIR BEGINS TO WORK IN QUICKLY,
SNOW WILL CHANGE TO A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN AND PERHAPS SLEET.
THIS WILL BE BRIEF AND MAINLY NORTH OF THE BANGOR- CALAIS REGION
AND THEN THE PRECIP SHUTS OFF AS THE BEST FORCING MOVES INTO NEW
BRUNSWICK. THERE COULD BE PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE BEFORE THE
PRECIP SHUTS OFF. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY WARM INTO
THE MID AND UPPER 30S BY DAYBREAK. AREAS OF FOG EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY TOWARDS BANGOR AND THE COAST.
ANY SNOWFALL WILL LESS THAN AN INCH AND THIS WILL BE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN SECTIONS. ACCUMULATION OF FREEZING PRECIP WILL BE
NEGLIGIBLE.

FOR THURSDAY, THE CWA GETS IN THE WARM SECTOR W/A GOOD DEAL OF LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG ESPECIALLY W/THE WARM AIR OVER THE MELTING SNOW.
DECIDED TO STAY W/THE MIDNIGHT CREW`S ASSESSMENT OF THIS TAKING
PLACE. SOUNDING PROFILES SHOW THE WIND FIELD VEERING TO WSW AND
SOME DRYING IN THE MID LEVELS. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR A BRIEF
PERIOD OF SUNSHINE WHICH IN TURN WILL ALLOW FOR SOME MIXING OF A
40 KT JET AT 4K FT AS THE FRONT TO THE W APPROACHES. WIND GUSTS TO
UP TO 35 MPH ARE POSSIBLE FROM LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS DEEPER MOISTURE WORKS BACK INTO THE
REGION W/THE APPROACH OF LOW PRES FROM THE SW ALONG THE APCHG
FRONT. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SW TO NE BY THE AFTERNOON. THE
LATEST RUNS OF THE NAM/GFS/CANADIAN GEM POINT TO TEMPERATURES
FALLING BACK IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WEST AND NW WHERE RAIN
COULD CHANGE TO SNOW MAINLY N & W OF CARIBOU AND PRESQUE ISLE.
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO WARM INTO THE 40S FOR JUST ABOUT THE
ENTIRE CWA W/INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE DOWNEAST HITTING AROUND 50F.
SEE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW FOR RAINFALL AND IMPACTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTHEAST ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SITUATED ALONG THE DOWN EAST COAST THURSDAY EVENING WILL MOVE TO
THE EAST OF THE GULF OF MAINE BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY. MODEL CONSENSUS
IS NOW SHOWING THE LOW WILL PASS JUST OFF SHORE OF THE DOWN EAST
COAST. EXPECT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WITH THIS SYSTEM TO DECREASE
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH WITH THE CROWN OF MAINE AND SAINT JOHN VALLEY
SEEING LITTLE IN THE WAY OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION.

PRECIPITATION WILL BE TAPERING OFF FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
THURSDAY EVENING AS THE WAVE LIFTS NORTHEAST. AS IT DOES SO, RAIN
WILL GRADUALLY CHANGE TO SNOW ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SNOW MAY ACCUMULATE A COUPLE INCHES ACROSS CENTRAL AREAS
AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF INTERIOR DOWN EAST MAINE.

ANY LINGERING SNOW ACROSS DOWN EAST AREAS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WILL
END BY MID MORNING. IT WONT BE AS MILD FRIDAY BUT TEMPERATURES
WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. OTHERWISE EXPECT
IMPROVING CONDITIONS DURING FRIDAY AS A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD EAST LATER FRIDAY.

EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES BOTH FRIDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN ON SATURDAY
AS A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD EAST FROM THE
NATIONS MID SECTION. HIGH TEMPERATURES BY SATURDAY WILL ONCE AGAIN
FALL TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS WITH UPPER 20S TO NEAR 30 NORTH AND
LOW TO MID 30S DOWN EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WILL CONTINUE DRY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF TO OUR EAST. THE NEXT
WEATHER SYSTEM WILL THEN APPROACH THE AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND
THROUGH MONDAY. 12Z OP MODELS ARE AT ODDS ON THE TRACK. GFS TAKES
A NORTHEN STREAM LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN
EAST ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE DURING MONDAY. THE EC TRACKS THE
LOW WELL OFF TO OUR NORTH AND SWINGS A COLD FRONT FRONT THROUGH
THE AREA WITH LESS IN THE WAY OF QPF. GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS WERE
ABOUT EVENLY SPLIT WITH ABOUT HALF TAKING THE LOW TO OUR NORTH AND
THE OTHERS ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE. SUPERBELND WAS SHOWING CHANCE
POPS FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AND WE STAYED WITH THEM. PRECIPITATION
TYPE WAS SNOW OR RAIN. SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS COULD LINGER INTO TUESDAY
DEPENDING ON THE ULTIMATE TRACK OF THE LOW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN FOR WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR THROUGH LATE EVENING. A SHORT BURST OF SNOW WILL
LEAD TO IFR CONDITIONS AFTER MIDNIGHT. AFTER THAT...CIGS WILL RANGE
FROM MVFR TO IFR INTO THURSDAY MORNING. AREAS OF FOG ARE EXPECTED
TO MOVE INTO BGR AND BHB LATER TONIGHT AND OVERSPREAD THE REST OF
THE CWA ON THURSDAY. LLWS POSSIBLE AS A LLVL JET OF 45 KTS IS EXPECTED
ABOVE 4K FT. THEREFORE, SOME GUSTS TO 30 KTS POSSIBLE INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.
A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR AND PERHAPS VFR ON THURSDAY, BUT CONDITIONS
LOOK LIKE THEY WILL DROP BACK TO MVFR AND THEN IFR BY THE AFTERNOON
W/RAIN MOVING BACK INTO THE REGION.

SHORT TERM: IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY KBGR/KBHB
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY IN RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW. VFR
CONDITIONS CAN THEN BE EXPECTED MOST OF FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. IFR/MVFR
IS POSSIBLE IN PRECIP ON MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN UP THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING AS WIND GUSTS COULD HIT 30 KTS MAINLY OVER THE
OUTER ZONES. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO APCH 6-7 FT. WINDS ARE FORECAST
TO DROP OFF AS THE OCCLUDED FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE WATERS.

SHORT TERM: SEAS COULD CONTINUE AT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
FRIDAY AND THEN A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY CONTINUE FOR
BOTH WINDS/SEAS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL/QPF AMOUNTS STILL LOOK TO BE AROUND 0.50 INCHES EXPECTED
ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF CWA WITH AROUND 1 INCH FOR THE DOWNEAST
REGION INCLUDING THE COAST. THE WARMUP AND PROJECTED RAINFALL WILL
LEAD TO SUBSTANTIAL SNOWMELT AND RUNOFF THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. SOME
ICE MOVEMENT IS POSSIBLE ON THE RIVERS AND STREAMS WITH THE PISCATAQUIS,
PENOBSCOT AND ST. CROIX RIVER BASINS THE MOST PRONE TO THIS POSSIBILITY.
SIGNIFICANT FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED AS THE SNOWPACK SHOULD BE ABLE
TO HANDLE THE THE RAINFALL INITIALLY BEFORE RIPENING ALLOWING FOR
RUNOFF.

THE BIGGER ISSUE W/THE SNOWMELT AND RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO BE
URBAN PROBLEMS DUE TO POOR DRAINAGE AND CLOGGED STORM DRAINS.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HEWITT
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...HEWITT/DUDA
MARINE...HEWITT/DUDA
HYDROLOGY...HEWITT




000
FXUS61 KGYX 251944
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
344 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION TONIGHT AND MOVE THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND PUSH A
COLD FRONT OFF THE COAST FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL WILL MOVE
THROUGH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND MONDAY.


&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
WATER VAPOR AND IR IMAGERY SHOW WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME IN
ASSOCIATION WITH AN APPROACHING FROM THE SW. S FLOW TODAY HAS GONE
A LONG WAY IN SATURATING THE COLUMN AND SHOWERS HAVE BEGUN IN NEW
YORK STATE ALREADY. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED UP NICELY TODAY AND
WILL FALL ONLY A FEW DEGREES TONIGHT BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN AS
THE WARM FRONT ARRIVES. THE FIRST WAVE OF PRECIPITATION WILL
MOSTLY FALL AS RAIN BUT THERE MAY BE SOME SNOW AND SLEET MIXING
IN ACROSS THE HIGHEST PEAKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
PRECIP DIMINISHES AFTER MIDNIGHT AS DRY AIR WORKS IN FROM THE SW
BEHIND THE INITIAL CYCLONE. THURSDAY WILL BE WARM... IN THE 40S
AND 50S... AND HUMID AS WELL MAKING IT SEEM EVEN WARMER THAN IT
IS. THERE WILL ONLY BE A FEW HOURS IN THE MORNING HOURS WITHOUT
PRECIP BEFORE THE NEXT ROUND ARRIVES. THE DEEP TROUGH CURRENTLY
POSING A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IN THE PLAINS TRANSLATES EAST
TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES BY EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
PROMPT SECONDARY CYCLOGENESIS NEAR THE JERSEY COAST. A STRONG
SPRINGTIME UPPER LEVEL JET WILL HELP PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A HIGHER CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW AS
PRECIPITATION INTERACTS WITH THE ANAFRONT SET UP...STILL LESS THAN
ADVISORY CRITERIA AND MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. A
COLD FRONT WILL SLIP OFF THE COAST FRIDAY. MODELS SHOW UPPER LEVEL
SHORT WAVE HANGING BACK BEHIND THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
SATURDAY SO HAVE INTRODUCED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
FOR SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE THEN. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY. NEXT A COLD FRONT APPROACHES MONDAY WITH THE
GFS PUSHING A SURFACE LOW THROUGH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THE ECMWF KEEPS MAIN SURFACE LOW TO OUR NORTH IN
SOUTHERN CANADA WITH ANOTHER LOW DEVELOPING WELL EAST OF OUR AREA
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...SCATTERED SHRA/SHSN WILL BRING MVFR CONDITIONS OR
LOWER TO THE REGION BEGINNING 00Z TONIGHT. DEEP MOISTURE CONTINUES
AND DOES NOT IMPROVE MUCH BEFORE THE NEXT ROUND OF PRECIPITATION
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY. SOME
ISOLATED MVFR POSSIBLE SATURDAY IN SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE IN
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SCA ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH TOMORROW
MORNING AND WILL LIKELY BE EXTENDED FOR WAVES.

LONG TERM...SCA WINDS POSSIBLE SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WARMER WEATHER AND ONE HALF TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF RAIN
WILL INDUCE SOME RUNOFF IN SOUTHERN LOCATIONS. WILL LIKELY SEE
SOME RISES ON SOUTHERN RIVERS. AT THE CURRENT TIME DONT EXPECT
ANY ISSUES. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR ICE MOVEMENT THOUGH.


&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ153.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ150>152-154.

&&

$$

HANES/HAWLEY



000
FXUS61 KGYX 251944
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
344 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION TONIGHT AND MOVE THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND PUSH A
COLD FRONT OFF THE COAST FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL WILL MOVE
THROUGH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND MONDAY.


&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
WATER VAPOR AND IR IMAGERY SHOW WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME IN
ASSOCIATION WITH AN APPROACHING FROM THE SW. S FLOW TODAY HAS GONE
A LONG WAY IN SATURATING THE COLUMN AND SHOWERS HAVE BEGUN IN NEW
YORK STATE ALREADY. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED UP NICELY TODAY AND
WILL FALL ONLY A FEW DEGREES TONIGHT BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN AS
THE WARM FRONT ARRIVES. THE FIRST WAVE OF PRECIPITATION WILL
MOSTLY FALL AS RAIN BUT THERE MAY BE SOME SNOW AND SLEET MIXING
IN ACROSS THE HIGHEST PEAKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
PRECIP DIMINISHES AFTER MIDNIGHT AS DRY AIR WORKS IN FROM THE SW
BEHIND THE INITIAL CYCLONE. THURSDAY WILL BE WARM... IN THE 40S
AND 50S... AND HUMID AS WELL MAKING IT SEEM EVEN WARMER THAN IT
IS. THERE WILL ONLY BE A FEW HOURS IN THE MORNING HOURS WITHOUT
PRECIP BEFORE THE NEXT ROUND ARRIVES. THE DEEP TROUGH CURRENTLY
POSING A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IN THE PLAINS TRANSLATES EAST
TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES BY EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
PROMPT SECONDARY CYCLOGENESIS NEAR THE JERSEY COAST. A STRONG
SPRINGTIME UPPER LEVEL JET WILL HELP PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A HIGHER CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW AS
PRECIPITATION INTERACTS WITH THE ANAFRONT SET UP...STILL LESS THAN
ADVISORY CRITERIA AND MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. A
COLD FRONT WILL SLIP OFF THE COAST FRIDAY. MODELS SHOW UPPER LEVEL
SHORT WAVE HANGING BACK BEHIND THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
SATURDAY SO HAVE INTRODUCED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
FOR SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE THEN. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY. NEXT A COLD FRONT APPROACHES MONDAY WITH THE
GFS PUSHING A SURFACE LOW THROUGH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THE ECMWF KEEPS MAIN SURFACE LOW TO OUR NORTH IN
SOUTHERN CANADA WITH ANOTHER LOW DEVELOPING WELL EAST OF OUR AREA
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...SCATTERED SHRA/SHSN WILL BRING MVFR CONDITIONS OR
LOWER TO THE REGION BEGINNING 00Z TONIGHT. DEEP MOISTURE CONTINUES
AND DOES NOT IMPROVE MUCH BEFORE THE NEXT ROUND OF PRECIPITATION
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY. SOME
ISOLATED MVFR POSSIBLE SATURDAY IN SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE IN
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SCA ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH TOMORROW
MORNING AND WILL LIKELY BE EXTENDED FOR WAVES.

LONG TERM...SCA WINDS POSSIBLE SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WARMER WEATHER AND ONE HALF TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF RAIN
WILL INDUCE SOME RUNOFF IN SOUTHERN LOCATIONS. WILL LIKELY SEE
SOME RISES ON SOUTHERN RIVERS. AT THE CURRENT TIME DONT EXPECT
ANY ISSUES. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR ICE MOVEMENT THOUGH.


&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ153.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ150>152-154.

&&

$$

HANES/HAWLEY




000
FXUS61 KGYX 251944
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
344 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION TONIGHT AND MOVE THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND PUSH A
COLD FRONT OFF THE COAST FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL WILL MOVE
THROUGH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND MONDAY.


&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
WATER VAPOR AND IR IMAGERY SHOW WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME IN
ASSOCIATION WITH AN APPROACHING FROM THE SW. S FLOW TODAY HAS GONE
A LONG WAY IN SATURATING THE COLUMN AND SHOWERS HAVE BEGUN IN NEW
YORK STATE ALREADY. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED UP NICELY TODAY AND
WILL FALL ONLY A FEW DEGREES TONIGHT BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN AS
THE WARM FRONT ARRIVES. THE FIRST WAVE OF PRECIPITATION WILL
MOSTLY FALL AS RAIN BUT THERE MAY BE SOME SNOW AND SLEET MIXING
IN ACROSS THE HIGHEST PEAKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
PRECIP DIMINISHES AFTER MIDNIGHT AS DRY AIR WORKS IN FROM THE SW
BEHIND THE INITIAL CYCLONE. THURSDAY WILL BE WARM... IN THE 40S
AND 50S... AND HUMID AS WELL MAKING IT SEEM EVEN WARMER THAN IT
IS. THERE WILL ONLY BE A FEW HOURS IN THE MORNING HOURS WITHOUT
PRECIP BEFORE THE NEXT ROUND ARRIVES. THE DEEP TROUGH CURRENTLY
POSING A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IN THE PLAINS TRANSLATES EAST
TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES BY EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
PROMPT SECONDARY CYCLOGENESIS NEAR THE JERSEY COAST. A STRONG
SPRINGTIME UPPER LEVEL JET WILL HELP PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A HIGHER CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW AS
PRECIPITATION INTERACTS WITH THE ANAFRONT SET UP...STILL LESS THAN
ADVISORY CRITERIA AND MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. A
COLD FRONT WILL SLIP OFF THE COAST FRIDAY. MODELS SHOW UPPER LEVEL
SHORT WAVE HANGING BACK BEHIND THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
SATURDAY SO HAVE INTRODUCED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
FOR SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE THEN. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY. NEXT A COLD FRONT APPROACHES MONDAY WITH THE
GFS PUSHING A SURFACE LOW THROUGH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THE ECMWF KEEPS MAIN SURFACE LOW TO OUR NORTH IN
SOUTHERN CANADA WITH ANOTHER LOW DEVELOPING WELL EAST OF OUR AREA
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...SCATTERED SHRA/SHSN WILL BRING MVFR CONDITIONS OR
LOWER TO THE REGION BEGINNING 00Z TONIGHT. DEEP MOISTURE CONTINUES
AND DOES NOT IMPROVE MUCH BEFORE THE NEXT ROUND OF PRECIPITATION
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY. SOME
ISOLATED MVFR POSSIBLE SATURDAY IN SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE IN
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SCA ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH TOMORROW
MORNING AND WILL LIKELY BE EXTENDED FOR WAVES.

LONG TERM...SCA WINDS POSSIBLE SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WARMER WEATHER AND ONE HALF TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF RAIN
WILL INDUCE SOME RUNOFF IN SOUTHERN LOCATIONS. WILL LIKELY SEE
SOME RISES ON SOUTHERN RIVERS. AT THE CURRENT TIME DONT EXPECT
ANY ISSUES. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR ICE MOVEMENT THOUGH.


&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ153.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ150>152-154.

&&

$$

HANES/HAWLEY




000
FXUS61 KGYX 251944
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
344 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION TONIGHT AND MOVE THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND PUSH A
COLD FRONT OFF THE COAST FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL WILL MOVE
THROUGH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND MONDAY.


&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
WATER VAPOR AND IR IMAGERY SHOW WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME IN
ASSOCIATION WITH AN APPROACHING FROM THE SW. S FLOW TODAY HAS GONE
A LONG WAY IN SATURATING THE COLUMN AND SHOWERS HAVE BEGUN IN NEW
YORK STATE ALREADY. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED UP NICELY TODAY AND
WILL FALL ONLY A FEW DEGREES TONIGHT BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN AS
THE WARM FRONT ARRIVES. THE FIRST WAVE OF PRECIPITATION WILL
MOSTLY FALL AS RAIN BUT THERE MAY BE SOME SNOW AND SLEET MIXING
IN ACROSS THE HIGHEST PEAKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
PRECIP DIMINISHES AFTER MIDNIGHT AS DRY AIR WORKS IN FROM THE SW
BEHIND THE INITIAL CYCLONE. THURSDAY WILL BE WARM... IN THE 40S
AND 50S... AND HUMID AS WELL MAKING IT SEEM EVEN WARMER THAN IT
IS. THERE WILL ONLY BE A FEW HOURS IN THE MORNING HOURS WITHOUT
PRECIP BEFORE THE NEXT ROUND ARRIVES. THE DEEP TROUGH CURRENTLY
POSING A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IN THE PLAINS TRANSLATES EAST
TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES BY EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
PROMPT SECONDARY CYCLOGENESIS NEAR THE JERSEY COAST. A STRONG
SPRINGTIME UPPER LEVEL JET WILL HELP PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A HIGHER CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW AS
PRECIPITATION INTERACTS WITH THE ANAFRONT SET UP...STILL LESS THAN
ADVISORY CRITERIA AND MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. A
COLD FRONT WILL SLIP OFF THE COAST FRIDAY. MODELS SHOW UPPER LEVEL
SHORT WAVE HANGING BACK BEHIND THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
SATURDAY SO HAVE INTRODUCED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
FOR SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE THEN. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY. NEXT A COLD FRONT APPROACHES MONDAY WITH THE
GFS PUSHING A SURFACE LOW THROUGH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THE ECMWF KEEPS MAIN SURFACE LOW TO OUR NORTH IN
SOUTHERN CANADA WITH ANOTHER LOW DEVELOPING WELL EAST OF OUR AREA
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...SCATTERED SHRA/SHSN WILL BRING MVFR CONDITIONS OR
LOWER TO THE REGION BEGINNING 00Z TONIGHT. DEEP MOISTURE CONTINUES
AND DOES NOT IMPROVE MUCH BEFORE THE NEXT ROUND OF PRECIPITATION
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY. SOME
ISOLATED MVFR POSSIBLE SATURDAY IN SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE IN
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SCA ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH TOMORROW
MORNING AND WILL LIKELY BE EXTENDED FOR WAVES.

LONG TERM...SCA WINDS POSSIBLE SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WARMER WEATHER AND ONE HALF TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF RAIN
WILL INDUCE SOME RUNOFF IN SOUTHERN LOCATIONS. WILL LIKELY SEE
SOME RISES ON SOUTHERN RIVERS. AT THE CURRENT TIME DONT EXPECT
ANY ISSUES. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR ICE MOVEMENT THOUGH.


&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ153.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ150>152-154.

&&

$$

HANES/HAWLEY



000
FXUS61 KCAR 251839
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
239 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST THIS EVENING. A WARM FRONT WILL
CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
2 PM UPDATE...ADJUSTED MAXES DOWN ACROSS THE DONWEAST AND COAST
DUE TO SSW FLOW COMING IN OFF THE COLD GULF OF MAINE WATERS.

17Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWED HIGH PRES MOVING E W/A SSW FLOW SETTING
UP. THIS HAS ALLOWED THE WESTERN AREAS TO WARM UP QUICKLY INTO
THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S WHILE AREAS SUCH AS BANGOR AND BAR
HARBOR HAVE BEEN IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. DEWPOINTS RUNNING
IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS AIDING IN EVAPORATION OF THE SNOWPACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A WEAKENING WARM OCCLUSION WILL MOVE RAPIDLY INTO THE AREA LATE
THIS EVENING AND PROVIDE A QUICK HIT OF UP TO A HALF INCH OF WET
SNOW BEFORE CHANGING TO FREEZING DRIZZLE AND DRIZZLE AS WARM AIR
PUSHES INTO THE AREA. AREAS OF FOG WILL DEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY TOWARDS BANGOR AND THE COAST. TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL DROP OFF EARLY THIS EVENING AND THEN RISE SLOWLY FOR
THE DURATION OF THE NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WMFNT MVS THRU CWA BY START OF SHORT TERM PD. THIS WL LV AREA IN
WMSECTOR DRG THE DAY WITH SW FLOW DRAWING IN WM TEMPS WITH HIGHS
REACHING INTO THE 40S OUTSIDE OF FAR NERN ZONES. HV SIDED MORE TWD
GFS WITH EVENTUAL TRACK OF UPCOMING SYSTEM AS IT CLUSTERS WITH EC
AND CMC, WITH NAM A FAR SOUTHERN OUTLIER. H9 TEMPS ON 00Z GFS SOAR
ABV 0C 12Z THURSDAY. WITH AREA BEING IN WMSECTOR HV OPTED TO GO WITH
PATCHY DRIZZLE AND AREAS OF FOG FOR MOST OF AREA DRG THE MRNG HRS
WITH A GRADUAL INCRS IN LGT RAIN FM THE SW AS LOPRES HEADS UP FRONTAL
BNDRY.

BY 00Z FRI MED RANGE MODELS (GFS, EC AND CMC) ARE ALL CLUSTERING
SFC LOPRES ARND THE BERSKSHIRES WITH THE NAM DOWN ACRS THE
DELMARVA. THIS GIVES INCREASED CONFIDENCE WITH A FURTHER NORTH
SOLN TO FRONTAL BNDRY LOCATION ALONG COAST AS OPPOSED TO FARTHER
OFFSHORE. EXPECT WIDESPREAD PCPN THUR NGT AS CWA IS LOCATED IN RRQ
OF H3 JET STREAK LEADING TO ENHANCED LIFT ALONG WITH CONVERGENCE
ALONG BAROCLINIC ZONE. MOISTURE WL BE STREAMING NWD FM GOM AS PW
VALUES APCH 1 INCH OVR DOWNEAST ZONES THUR EVNG/NGT. WIDESPREAD
QPF AMNTS FM LATE THUR AFTN THRU FRI MRNG LOOK TO AVG ARND 0.75
INCHES OVR SRN ZONES.

AS SFC LOW HEADS EAST INTO MARITIMES CLD AIR WL BE DRAWN IN ON
NRLY FLOW, ALLOWING SNOW TO BEGIN MIXING IN ACRS THE NORTH FRI
EVNG AND EVENTUALLY SPREADING ALL THE WAY TO THE COAST BY MRNG.
HWVR, WITH THE STRONG MARCH SUN EXPECT TEMPS TO RCVR INTO THE 40S
DRG THE DAY AND ALLOWING PCPN TO SWITCH BACK OVR TO RAIN. ONLY
LOCATIONS EXPECTED TO SEE SNOW DRG THE COURSE OF THE DAY IS IN
HIGHER TERRAIN OVR THE CROWN OF MAINE. NORTHWEST AROOSTOOK/NRN
SOMERSET AND NRN PISCATAQUIS CNTYS MAY SEE A QUICK SEVERAL INCHES
OF SNOW THRU THE END OF THE SHORT TERM.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIPRES WL BE BUILDING INTO AREA FM THE WEST FRI NGT AND JUST
EXPECTING OROGRAPHICALLY DRIVEN SNOW SHOWERS OVR FAR NORTH.
SATURDAY LKLY TO BE COLDEST DAY OF THE PD WITH NRLY FLOW FM CANADA
BRINGING H8 TEMPS AS LOW AS -15C DRG THE DAY, YIELDING HIGHS ONLY
IN THE M20S ACRS THE NORTH TO M30S ALONG THE COAST. HIGH WL CREST
ACRS THE REGION ON SUNDAY WITH TEMPS MODERATING THRU EARLY NEXT
WEEK. WARM ADVECTION WL OCCUR ON MONDAY AHD OF NEXT SYSTEM
DROPPING THRU CANADA. THIS SYSTEM WL BRING LGT SNOW INTO THE AREA
IN THE MRNG THEN SLOWLY MIX WITH AND CHG TO RAIN BY AFTN. EXPECT
THIS SYSTEM TO BE A QUICK MVR WITH ANOTHER SHOT OF CLD AIR
FOLLOWING IN BEHIND IT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR UNTIL TONIGHT. A SHORT BURST OF SNOW WILL CREATE
IFR CONDITIONS. BEHIND THE SNOW...CIGS WILL RANGE FROM MVFR TO
IFR WITH POSSIBLE IFR VIS IN DRIZZLE. AREAS OF FOG ARE EXPECTED
TO MOVE INTO BGR AND BHB LATER IN THE NIGHT.

SHORT TERM: MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED THUR MRNG IN PATCHY
DRIZZLE AND AREAS OF FOG UNTIL STEADIER RAIN CAN MOVE INTO
TERMINALS THUR AFTN. SNOW WORKS IN FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THUR NIGHT
INTO FRI MRNG WITH RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE. PRECIPITATION EXPECTED
TO CHANGE TO RAIN DURING THE AFTN AT BHB AND BGR WITH MIXED
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED AT OTHER TERMINALS. RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED
IN -SHSN THRU SAT MRNG BFR BECOMING VFR SAT.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WILL ISSUE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT WITH WIND
GUSTS EXCEEDING 25 KTS AND SEAS AROUND 6 FT. HAVE REDUCED WINDS
FROM MODEL OUTPUT WITH THE WARM ADVECTION OVER THE COLD WATERS.

SHORT TERM: SEAS WILL INCREASE LATE THURSDAY AFTN AS LOW PRESSURE
HEADS ACROSS NORTHEASTERN U.S. EXPECT SEAS TO RANGE FROM 6-10FT
THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. WAVES WILL LIKELY STILL REMAIN ABOVE SCA
THROUGH END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL/QPF OF AROUND 0.50 INCHES EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF CWA WITH AROUND 1 INCH FOR THE DOWNEAST REGION. THE
WARMUP AND PROJECTED RAINFALL WILL LEAD TO SUBSTANTIAL SNOWMELT
AND RUNOFF THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS COULD ALSO LEAD TO SOME ICE
MOVEMENT ON THE RIVERS AND STREAMS, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
PISCATAQUIS, PENOBSCOT AND ST. CROIX RIVER BASINS. ATTM, WE ARE
NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT FLOODING ON THE RIVERS AS THE
SNOWPACK SHOULD BE ABLE TO HANDLE THE THE RAINFALL INITIALLY
BEFORE RIPENING ALLOWING FOR RUNOFF.

THE BIGGEST ISSUE W/THE SNOWMELT AND RAINFALL WILL BE URBAN
PROBLEMS DUE TO POOR DRAINAGE AND CLOGGED STORM DRAINS. THIS WILL
NEED TO BE MONITORED AS WE MOVE CLOSER TO THE EVENT.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HEWITT
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...HEWITT/
MARINE...HEWITT/
HYDROLOGY...




000
FXUS61 KCAR 251839
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
239 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST THIS EVENING. A WARM FRONT WILL
CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
2 PM UPDATE...ADJUSTED MAXES DOWN ACROSS THE DONWEAST AND COAST
DUE TO SSW FLOW COMING IN OFF THE COLD GULF OF MAINE WATERS.

17Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWED HIGH PRES MOVING E W/A SSW FLOW SETTING
UP. THIS HAS ALLOWED THE WESTERN AREAS TO WARM UP QUICKLY INTO
THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S WHILE AREAS SUCH AS BANGOR AND BAR
HARBOR HAVE BEEN IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. DEWPOINTS RUNNING
IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS AIDING IN EVAPORATION OF THE SNOWPACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A WEAKENING WARM OCCLUSION WILL MOVE RAPIDLY INTO THE AREA LATE
THIS EVENING AND PROVIDE A QUICK HIT OF UP TO A HALF INCH OF WET
SNOW BEFORE CHANGING TO FREEZING DRIZZLE AND DRIZZLE AS WARM AIR
PUSHES INTO THE AREA. AREAS OF FOG WILL DEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY TOWARDS BANGOR AND THE COAST. TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL DROP OFF EARLY THIS EVENING AND THEN RISE SLOWLY FOR
THE DURATION OF THE NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WMFNT MVS THRU CWA BY START OF SHORT TERM PD. THIS WL LV AREA IN
WMSECTOR DRG THE DAY WITH SW FLOW DRAWING IN WM TEMPS WITH HIGHS
REACHING INTO THE 40S OUTSIDE OF FAR NERN ZONES. HV SIDED MORE TWD
GFS WITH EVENTUAL TRACK OF UPCOMING SYSTEM AS IT CLUSTERS WITH EC
AND CMC, WITH NAM A FAR SOUTHERN OUTLIER. H9 TEMPS ON 00Z GFS SOAR
ABV 0C 12Z THURSDAY. WITH AREA BEING IN WMSECTOR HV OPTED TO GO WITH
PATCHY DRIZZLE AND AREAS OF FOG FOR MOST OF AREA DRG THE MRNG HRS
WITH A GRADUAL INCRS IN LGT RAIN FM THE SW AS LOPRES HEADS UP FRONTAL
BNDRY.

BY 00Z FRI MED RANGE MODELS (GFS, EC AND CMC) ARE ALL CLUSTERING
SFC LOPRES ARND THE BERSKSHIRES WITH THE NAM DOWN ACRS THE
DELMARVA. THIS GIVES INCREASED CONFIDENCE WITH A FURTHER NORTH
SOLN TO FRONTAL BNDRY LOCATION ALONG COAST AS OPPOSED TO FARTHER
OFFSHORE. EXPECT WIDESPREAD PCPN THUR NGT AS CWA IS LOCATED IN RRQ
OF H3 JET STREAK LEADING TO ENHANCED LIFT ALONG WITH CONVERGENCE
ALONG BAROCLINIC ZONE. MOISTURE WL BE STREAMING NWD FM GOM AS PW
VALUES APCH 1 INCH OVR DOWNEAST ZONES THUR EVNG/NGT. WIDESPREAD
QPF AMNTS FM LATE THUR AFTN THRU FRI MRNG LOOK TO AVG ARND 0.75
INCHES OVR SRN ZONES.

AS SFC LOW HEADS EAST INTO MARITIMES CLD AIR WL BE DRAWN IN ON
NRLY FLOW, ALLOWING SNOW TO BEGIN MIXING IN ACRS THE NORTH FRI
EVNG AND EVENTUALLY SPREADING ALL THE WAY TO THE COAST BY MRNG.
HWVR, WITH THE STRONG MARCH SUN EXPECT TEMPS TO RCVR INTO THE 40S
DRG THE DAY AND ALLOWING PCPN TO SWITCH BACK OVR TO RAIN. ONLY
LOCATIONS EXPECTED TO SEE SNOW DRG THE COURSE OF THE DAY IS IN
HIGHER TERRAIN OVR THE CROWN OF MAINE. NORTHWEST AROOSTOOK/NRN
SOMERSET AND NRN PISCATAQUIS CNTYS MAY SEE A QUICK SEVERAL INCHES
OF SNOW THRU THE END OF THE SHORT TERM.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIPRES WL BE BUILDING INTO AREA FM THE WEST FRI NGT AND JUST
EXPECTING OROGRAPHICALLY DRIVEN SNOW SHOWERS OVR FAR NORTH.
SATURDAY LKLY TO BE COLDEST DAY OF THE PD WITH NRLY FLOW FM CANADA
BRINGING H8 TEMPS AS LOW AS -15C DRG THE DAY, YIELDING HIGHS ONLY
IN THE M20S ACRS THE NORTH TO M30S ALONG THE COAST. HIGH WL CREST
ACRS THE REGION ON SUNDAY WITH TEMPS MODERATING THRU EARLY NEXT
WEEK. WARM ADVECTION WL OCCUR ON MONDAY AHD OF NEXT SYSTEM
DROPPING THRU CANADA. THIS SYSTEM WL BRING LGT SNOW INTO THE AREA
IN THE MRNG THEN SLOWLY MIX WITH AND CHG TO RAIN BY AFTN. EXPECT
THIS SYSTEM TO BE A QUICK MVR WITH ANOTHER SHOT OF CLD AIR
FOLLOWING IN BEHIND IT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR UNTIL TONIGHT. A SHORT BURST OF SNOW WILL CREATE
IFR CONDITIONS. BEHIND THE SNOW...CIGS WILL RANGE FROM MVFR TO
IFR WITH POSSIBLE IFR VIS IN DRIZZLE. AREAS OF FOG ARE EXPECTED
TO MOVE INTO BGR AND BHB LATER IN THE NIGHT.

SHORT TERM: MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED THUR MRNG IN PATCHY
DRIZZLE AND AREAS OF FOG UNTIL STEADIER RAIN CAN MOVE INTO
TERMINALS THUR AFTN. SNOW WORKS IN FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THUR NIGHT
INTO FRI MRNG WITH RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE. PRECIPITATION EXPECTED
TO CHANGE TO RAIN DURING THE AFTN AT BHB AND BGR WITH MIXED
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED AT OTHER TERMINALS. RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED
IN -SHSN THRU SAT MRNG BFR BECOMING VFR SAT.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WILL ISSUE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT WITH WIND
GUSTS EXCEEDING 25 KTS AND SEAS AROUND 6 FT. HAVE REDUCED WINDS
FROM MODEL OUTPUT WITH THE WARM ADVECTION OVER THE COLD WATERS.

SHORT TERM: SEAS WILL INCREASE LATE THURSDAY AFTN AS LOW PRESSURE
HEADS ACROSS NORTHEASTERN U.S. EXPECT SEAS TO RANGE FROM 6-10FT
THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. WAVES WILL LIKELY STILL REMAIN ABOVE SCA
THROUGH END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL/QPF OF AROUND 0.50 INCHES EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF CWA WITH AROUND 1 INCH FOR THE DOWNEAST REGION. THE
WARMUP AND PROJECTED RAINFALL WILL LEAD TO SUBSTANTIAL SNOWMELT
AND RUNOFF THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS COULD ALSO LEAD TO SOME ICE
MOVEMENT ON THE RIVERS AND STREAMS, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
PISCATAQUIS, PENOBSCOT AND ST. CROIX RIVER BASINS. ATTM, WE ARE
NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT FLOODING ON THE RIVERS AS THE
SNOWPACK SHOULD BE ABLE TO HANDLE THE THE RAINFALL INITIALLY
BEFORE RIPENING ALLOWING FOR RUNOFF.

THE BIGGEST ISSUE W/THE SNOWMELT AND RAINFALL WILL BE URBAN
PROBLEMS DUE TO POOR DRAINAGE AND CLOGGED STORM DRAINS. THIS WILL
NEED TO BE MONITORED AS WE MOVE CLOSER TO THE EVENT.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HEWITT
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...HEWITT/
MARINE...HEWITT/
HYDROLOGY...




000
FXUS61 KCAR 251839
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
239 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST THIS EVENING. A WARM FRONT WILL
CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
2 PM UPDATE...ADJUSTED MAXES DOWN ACROSS THE DONWEAST AND COAST
DUE TO SSW FLOW COMING IN OFF THE COLD GULF OF MAINE WATERS.

17Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWED HIGH PRES MOVING E W/A SSW FLOW SETTING
UP. THIS HAS ALLOWED THE WESTERN AREAS TO WARM UP QUICKLY INTO
THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S WHILE AREAS SUCH AS BANGOR AND BAR
HARBOR HAVE BEEN IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. DEWPOINTS RUNNING
IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS AIDING IN EVAPORATION OF THE SNOWPACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A WEAKENING WARM OCCLUSION WILL MOVE RAPIDLY INTO THE AREA LATE
THIS EVENING AND PROVIDE A QUICK HIT OF UP TO A HALF INCH OF WET
SNOW BEFORE CHANGING TO FREEZING DRIZZLE AND DRIZZLE AS WARM AIR
PUSHES INTO THE AREA. AREAS OF FOG WILL DEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY TOWARDS BANGOR AND THE COAST. TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL DROP OFF EARLY THIS EVENING AND THEN RISE SLOWLY FOR
THE DURATION OF THE NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WMFNT MVS THRU CWA BY START OF SHORT TERM PD. THIS WL LV AREA IN
WMSECTOR DRG THE DAY WITH SW FLOW DRAWING IN WM TEMPS WITH HIGHS
REACHING INTO THE 40S OUTSIDE OF FAR NERN ZONES. HV SIDED MORE TWD
GFS WITH EVENTUAL TRACK OF UPCOMING SYSTEM AS IT CLUSTERS WITH EC
AND CMC, WITH NAM A FAR SOUTHERN OUTLIER. H9 TEMPS ON 00Z GFS SOAR
ABV 0C 12Z THURSDAY. WITH AREA BEING IN WMSECTOR HV OPTED TO GO WITH
PATCHY DRIZZLE AND AREAS OF FOG FOR MOST OF AREA DRG THE MRNG HRS
WITH A GRADUAL INCRS IN LGT RAIN FM THE SW AS LOPRES HEADS UP FRONTAL
BNDRY.

BY 00Z FRI MED RANGE MODELS (GFS, EC AND CMC) ARE ALL CLUSTERING
SFC LOPRES ARND THE BERSKSHIRES WITH THE NAM DOWN ACRS THE
DELMARVA. THIS GIVES INCREASED CONFIDENCE WITH A FURTHER NORTH
SOLN TO FRONTAL BNDRY LOCATION ALONG COAST AS OPPOSED TO FARTHER
OFFSHORE. EXPECT WIDESPREAD PCPN THUR NGT AS CWA IS LOCATED IN RRQ
OF H3 JET STREAK LEADING TO ENHANCED LIFT ALONG WITH CONVERGENCE
ALONG BAROCLINIC ZONE. MOISTURE WL BE STREAMING NWD FM GOM AS PW
VALUES APCH 1 INCH OVR DOWNEAST ZONES THUR EVNG/NGT. WIDESPREAD
QPF AMNTS FM LATE THUR AFTN THRU FRI MRNG LOOK TO AVG ARND 0.75
INCHES OVR SRN ZONES.

AS SFC LOW HEADS EAST INTO MARITIMES CLD AIR WL BE DRAWN IN ON
NRLY FLOW, ALLOWING SNOW TO BEGIN MIXING IN ACRS THE NORTH FRI
EVNG AND EVENTUALLY SPREADING ALL THE WAY TO THE COAST BY MRNG.
HWVR, WITH THE STRONG MARCH SUN EXPECT TEMPS TO RCVR INTO THE 40S
DRG THE DAY AND ALLOWING PCPN TO SWITCH BACK OVR TO RAIN. ONLY
LOCATIONS EXPECTED TO SEE SNOW DRG THE COURSE OF THE DAY IS IN
HIGHER TERRAIN OVR THE CROWN OF MAINE. NORTHWEST AROOSTOOK/NRN
SOMERSET AND NRN PISCATAQUIS CNTYS MAY SEE A QUICK SEVERAL INCHES
OF SNOW THRU THE END OF THE SHORT TERM.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIPRES WL BE BUILDING INTO AREA FM THE WEST FRI NGT AND JUST
EXPECTING OROGRAPHICALLY DRIVEN SNOW SHOWERS OVR FAR NORTH.
SATURDAY LKLY TO BE COLDEST DAY OF THE PD WITH NRLY FLOW FM CANADA
BRINGING H8 TEMPS AS LOW AS -15C DRG THE DAY, YIELDING HIGHS ONLY
IN THE M20S ACRS THE NORTH TO M30S ALONG THE COAST. HIGH WL CREST
ACRS THE REGION ON SUNDAY WITH TEMPS MODERATING THRU EARLY NEXT
WEEK. WARM ADVECTION WL OCCUR ON MONDAY AHD OF NEXT SYSTEM
DROPPING THRU CANADA. THIS SYSTEM WL BRING LGT SNOW INTO THE AREA
IN THE MRNG THEN SLOWLY MIX WITH AND CHG TO RAIN BY AFTN. EXPECT
THIS SYSTEM TO BE A QUICK MVR WITH ANOTHER SHOT OF CLD AIR
FOLLOWING IN BEHIND IT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR UNTIL TONIGHT. A SHORT BURST OF SNOW WILL CREATE
IFR CONDITIONS. BEHIND THE SNOW...CIGS WILL RANGE FROM MVFR TO
IFR WITH POSSIBLE IFR VIS IN DRIZZLE. AREAS OF FOG ARE EXPECTED
TO MOVE INTO BGR AND BHB LATER IN THE NIGHT.

SHORT TERM: MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED THUR MRNG IN PATCHY
DRIZZLE AND AREAS OF FOG UNTIL STEADIER RAIN CAN MOVE INTO
TERMINALS THUR AFTN. SNOW WORKS IN FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THUR NIGHT
INTO FRI MRNG WITH RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE. PRECIPITATION EXPECTED
TO CHANGE TO RAIN DURING THE AFTN AT BHB AND BGR WITH MIXED
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED AT OTHER TERMINALS. RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED
IN -SHSN THRU SAT MRNG BFR BECOMING VFR SAT.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WILL ISSUE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT WITH WIND
GUSTS EXCEEDING 25 KTS AND SEAS AROUND 6 FT. HAVE REDUCED WINDS
FROM MODEL OUTPUT WITH THE WARM ADVECTION OVER THE COLD WATERS.

SHORT TERM: SEAS WILL INCREASE LATE THURSDAY AFTN AS LOW PRESSURE
HEADS ACROSS NORTHEASTERN U.S. EXPECT SEAS TO RANGE FROM 6-10FT
THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. WAVES WILL LIKELY STILL REMAIN ABOVE SCA
THROUGH END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL/QPF OF AROUND 0.50 INCHES EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF CWA WITH AROUND 1 INCH FOR THE DOWNEAST REGION. THE
WARMUP AND PROJECTED RAINFALL WILL LEAD TO SUBSTANTIAL SNOWMELT
AND RUNOFF THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS COULD ALSO LEAD TO SOME ICE
MOVEMENT ON THE RIVERS AND STREAMS, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
PISCATAQUIS, PENOBSCOT AND ST. CROIX RIVER BASINS. ATTM, WE ARE
NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT FLOODING ON THE RIVERS AS THE
SNOWPACK SHOULD BE ABLE TO HANDLE THE THE RAINFALL INITIALLY
BEFORE RIPENING ALLOWING FOR RUNOFF.

THE BIGGEST ISSUE W/THE SNOWMELT AND RAINFALL WILL BE URBAN
PROBLEMS DUE TO POOR DRAINAGE AND CLOGGED STORM DRAINS. THIS WILL
NEED TO BE MONITORED AS WE MOVE CLOSER TO THE EVENT.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HEWITT
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...HEWITT/
MARINE...HEWITT/
HYDROLOGY...




000
FXUS61 KCAR 251839
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
239 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST THIS EVENING. A WARM FRONT WILL
CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
2 PM UPDATE...ADJUSTED MAXES DOWN ACROSS THE DONWEAST AND COAST
DUE TO SSW FLOW COMING IN OFF THE COLD GULF OF MAINE WATERS.

17Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWED HIGH PRES MOVING E W/A SSW FLOW SETTING
UP. THIS HAS ALLOWED THE WESTERN AREAS TO WARM UP QUICKLY INTO
THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S WHILE AREAS SUCH AS BANGOR AND BAR
HARBOR HAVE BEEN IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. DEWPOINTS RUNNING
IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS AIDING IN EVAPORATION OF THE SNOWPACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A WEAKENING WARM OCCLUSION WILL MOVE RAPIDLY INTO THE AREA LATE
THIS EVENING AND PROVIDE A QUICK HIT OF UP TO A HALF INCH OF WET
SNOW BEFORE CHANGING TO FREEZING DRIZZLE AND DRIZZLE AS WARM AIR
PUSHES INTO THE AREA. AREAS OF FOG WILL DEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY TOWARDS BANGOR AND THE COAST. TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL DROP OFF EARLY THIS EVENING AND THEN RISE SLOWLY FOR
THE DURATION OF THE NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WMFNT MVS THRU CWA BY START OF SHORT TERM PD. THIS WL LV AREA IN
WMSECTOR DRG THE DAY WITH SW FLOW DRAWING IN WM TEMPS WITH HIGHS
REACHING INTO THE 40S OUTSIDE OF FAR NERN ZONES. HV SIDED MORE TWD
GFS WITH EVENTUAL TRACK OF UPCOMING SYSTEM AS IT CLUSTERS WITH EC
AND CMC, WITH NAM A FAR SOUTHERN OUTLIER. H9 TEMPS ON 00Z GFS SOAR
ABV 0C 12Z THURSDAY. WITH AREA BEING IN WMSECTOR HV OPTED TO GO WITH
PATCHY DRIZZLE AND AREAS OF FOG FOR MOST OF AREA DRG THE MRNG HRS
WITH A GRADUAL INCRS IN LGT RAIN FM THE SW AS LOPRES HEADS UP FRONTAL
BNDRY.

BY 00Z FRI MED RANGE MODELS (GFS, EC AND CMC) ARE ALL CLUSTERING
SFC LOPRES ARND THE BERSKSHIRES WITH THE NAM DOWN ACRS THE
DELMARVA. THIS GIVES INCREASED CONFIDENCE WITH A FURTHER NORTH
SOLN TO FRONTAL BNDRY LOCATION ALONG COAST AS OPPOSED TO FARTHER
OFFSHORE. EXPECT WIDESPREAD PCPN THUR NGT AS CWA IS LOCATED IN RRQ
OF H3 JET STREAK LEADING TO ENHANCED LIFT ALONG WITH CONVERGENCE
ALONG BAROCLINIC ZONE. MOISTURE WL BE STREAMING NWD FM GOM AS PW
VALUES APCH 1 INCH OVR DOWNEAST ZONES THUR EVNG/NGT. WIDESPREAD
QPF AMNTS FM LATE THUR AFTN THRU FRI MRNG LOOK TO AVG ARND 0.75
INCHES OVR SRN ZONES.

AS SFC LOW HEADS EAST INTO MARITIMES CLD AIR WL BE DRAWN IN ON
NRLY FLOW, ALLOWING SNOW TO BEGIN MIXING IN ACRS THE NORTH FRI
EVNG AND EVENTUALLY SPREADING ALL THE WAY TO THE COAST BY MRNG.
HWVR, WITH THE STRONG MARCH SUN EXPECT TEMPS TO RCVR INTO THE 40S
DRG THE DAY AND ALLOWING PCPN TO SWITCH BACK OVR TO RAIN. ONLY
LOCATIONS EXPECTED TO SEE SNOW DRG THE COURSE OF THE DAY IS IN
HIGHER TERRAIN OVR THE CROWN OF MAINE. NORTHWEST AROOSTOOK/NRN
SOMERSET AND NRN PISCATAQUIS CNTYS MAY SEE A QUICK SEVERAL INCHES
OF SNOW THRU THE END OF THE SHORT TERM.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIPRES WL BE BUILDING INTO AREA FM THE WEST FRI NGT AND JUST
EXPECTING OROGRAPHICALLY DRIVEN SNOW SHOWERS OVR FAR NORTH.
SATURDAY LKLY TO BE COLDEST DAY OF THE PD WITH NRLY FLOW FM CANADA
BRINGING H8 TEMPS AS LOW AS -15C DRG THE DAY, YIELDING HIGHS ONLY
IN THE M20S ACRS THE NORTH TO M30S ALONG THE COAST. HIGH WL CREST
ACRS THE REGION ON SUNDAY WITH TEMPS MODERATING THRU EARLY NEXT
WEEK. WARM ADVECTION WL OCCUR ON MONDAY AHD OF NEXT SYSTEM
DROPPING THRU CANADA. THIS SYSTEM WL BRING LGT SNOW INTO THE AREA
IN THE MRNG THEN SLOWLY MIX WITH AND CHG TO RAIN BY AFTN. EXPECT
THIS SYSTEM TO BE A QUICK MVR WITH ANOTHER SHOT OF CLD AIR
FOLLOWING IN BEHIND IT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR UNTIL TONIGHT. A SHORT BURST OF SNOW WILL CREATE
IFR CONDITIONS. BEHIND THE SNOW...CIGS WILL RANGE FROM MVFR TO
IFR WITH POSSIBLE IFR VIS IN DRIZZLE. AREAS OF FOG ARE EXPECTED
TO MOVE INTO BGR AND BHB LATER IN THE NIGHT.

SHORT TERM: MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED THUR MRNG IN PATCHY
DRIZZLE AND AREAS OF FOG UNTIL STEADIER RAIN CAN MOVE INTO
TERMINALS THUR AFTN. SNOW WORKS IN FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THUR NIGHT
INTO FRI MRNG WITH RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE. PRECIPITATION EXPECTED
TO CHANGE TO RAIN DURING THE AFTN AT BHB AND BGR WITH MIXED
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED AT OTHER TERMINALS. RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED
IN -SHSN THRU SAT MRNG BFR BECOMING VFR SAT.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WILL ISSUE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT WITH WIND
GUSTS EXCEEDING 25 KTS AND SEAS AROUND 6 FT. HAVE REDUCED WINDS
FROM MODEL OUTPUT WITH THE WARM ADVECTION OVER THE COLD WATERS.

SHORT TERM: SEAS WILL INCREASE LATE THURSDAY AFTN AS LOW PRESSURE
HEADS ACROSS NORTHEASTERN U.S. EXPECT SEAS TO RANGE FROM 6-10FT
THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. WAVES WILL LIKELY STILL REMAIN ABOVE SCA
THROUGH END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL/QPF OF AROUND 0.50 INCHES EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF CWA WITH AROUND 1 INCH FOR THE DOWNEAST REGION. THE
WARMUP AND PROJECTED RAINFALL WILL LEAD TO SUBSTANTIAL SNOWMELT
AND RUNOFF THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS COULD ALSO LEAD TO SOME ICE
MOVEMENT ON THE RIVERS AND STREAMS, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
PISCATAQUIS, PENOBSCOT AND ST. CROIX RIVER BASINS. ATTM, WE ARE
NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT FLOODING ON THE RIVERS AS THE
SNOWPACK SHOULD BE ABLE TO HANDLE THE THE RAINFALL INITIALLY
BEFORE RIPENING ALLOWING FOR RUNOFF.

THE BIGGEST ISSUE W/THE SNOWMELT AND RAINFALL WILL BE URBAN
PROBLEMS DUE TO POOR DRAINAGE AND CLOGGED STORM DRAINS. THIS WILL
NEED TO BE MONITORED AS WE MOVE CLOSER TO THE EVENT.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HEWITT
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...HEWITT/
MARINE...HEWITT/
HYDROLOGY...




000
FXUS61 KCAR 251839
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
239 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST THIS EVENING. A WARM FRONT WILL
CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
2 PM UPDATE...ADJUSTED MAXES DOWN ACROSS THE DONWEAST AND COAST
DUE TO SSW FLOW COMING IN OFF THE COLD GULF OF MAINE WATERS.

17Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWED HIGH PRES MOVING E W/A SSW FLOW SETTING
UP. THIS HAS ALLOWED THE WESTERN AREAS TO WARM UP QUICKLY INTO
THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S WHILE AREAS SUCH AS BANGOR AND BAR
HARBOR HAVE BEEN IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. DEWPOINTS RUNNING
IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS AIDING IN EVAPORATION OF THE SNOWPACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A WEAKENING WARM OCCLUSION WILL MOVE RAPIDLY INTO THE AREA LATE
THIS EVENING AND PROVIDE A QUICK HIT OF UP TO A HALF INCH OF WET
SNOW BEFORE CHANGING TO FREEZING DRIZZLE AND DRIZZLE AS WARM AIR
PUSHES INTO THE AREA. AREAS OF FOG WILL DEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY TOWARDS BANGOR AND THE COAST. TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL DROP OFF EARLY THIS EVENING AND THEN RISE SLOWLY FOR
THE DURATION OF THE NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WMFNT MVS THRU CWA BY START OF SHORT TERM PD. THIS WL LV AREA IN
WMSECTOR DRG THE DAY WITH SW FLOW DRAWING IN WM TEMPS WITH HIGHS
REACHING INTO THE 40S OUTSIDE OF FAR NERN ZONES. HV SIDED MORE TWD
GFS WITH EVENTUAL TRACK OF UPCOMING SYSTEM AS IT CLUSTERS WITH EC
AND CMC, WITH NAM A FAR SOUTHERN OUTLIER. H9 TEMPS ON 00Z GFS SOAR
ABV 0C 12Z THURSDAY. WITH AREA BEING IN WMSECTOR HV OPTED TO GO WITH
PATCHY DRIZZLE AND AREAS OF FOG FOR MOST OF AREA DRG THE MRNG HRS
WITH A GRADUAL INCRS IN LGT RAIN FM THE SW AS LOPRES HEADS UP FRONTAL
BNDRY.

BY 00Z FRI MED RANGE MODELS (GFS, EC AND CMC) ARE ALL CLUSTERING
SFC LOPRES ARND THE BERSKSHIRES WITH THE NAM DOWN ACRS THE
DELMARVA. THIS GIVES INCREASED CONFIDENCE WITH A FURTHER NORTH
SOLN TO FRONTAL BNDRY LOCATION ALONG COAST AS OPPOSED TO FARTHER
OFFSHORE. EXPECT WIDESPREAD PCPN THUR NGT AS CWA IS LOCATED IN RRQ
OF H3 JET STREAK LEADING TO ENHANCED LIFT ALONG WITH CONVERGENCE
ALONG BAROCLINIC ZONE. MOISTURE WL BE STREAMING NWD FM GOM AS PW
VALUES APCH 1 INCH OVR DOWNEAST ZONES THUR EVNG/NGT. WIDESPREAD
QPF AMNTS FM LATE THUR AFTN THRU FRI MRNG LOOK TO AVG ARND 0.75
INCHES OVR SRN ZONES.

AS SFC LOW HEADS EAST INTO MARITIMES CLD AIR WL BE DRAWN IN ON
NRLY FLOW, ALLOWING SNOW TO BEGIN MIXING IN ACRS THE NORTH FRI
EVNG AND EVENTUALLY SPREADING ALL THE WAY TO THE COAST BY MRNG.
HWVR, WITH THE STRONG MARCH SUN EXPECT TEMPS TO RCVR INTO THE 40S
DRG THE DAY AND ALLOWING PCPN TO SWITCH BACK OVR TO RAIN. ONLY
LOCATIONS EXPECTED TO SEE SNOW DRG THE COURSE OF THE DAY IS IN
HIGHER TERRAIN OVR THE CROWN OF MAINE. NORTHWEST AROOSTOOK/NRN
SOMERSET AND NRN PISCATAQUIS CNTYS MAY SEE A QUICK SEVERAL INCHES
OF SNOW THRU THE END OF THE SHORT TERM.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIPRES WL BE BUILDING INTO AREA FM THE WEST FRI NGT AND JUST
EXPECTING OROGRAPHICALLY DRIVEN SNOW SHOWERS OVR FAR NORTH.
SATURDAY LKLY TO BE COLDEST DAY OF THE PD WITH NRLY FLOW FM CANADA
BRINGING H8 TEMPS AS LOW AS -15C DRG THE DAY, YIELDING HIGHS ONLY
IN THE M20S ACRS THE NORTH TO M30S ALONG THE COAST. HIGH WL CREST
ACRS THE REGION ON SUNDAY WITH TEMPS MODERATING THRU EARLY NEXT
WEEK. WARM ADVECTION WL OCCUR ON MONDAY AHD OF NEXT SYSTEM
DROPPING THRU CANADA. THIS SYSTEM WL BRING LGT SNOW INTO THE AREA
IN THE MRNG THEN SLOWLY MIX WITH AND CHG TO RAIN BY AFTN. EXPECT
THIS SYSTEM TO BE A QUICK MVR WITH ANOTHER SHOT OF CLD AIR
FOLLOWING IN BEHIND IT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR UNTIL TONIGHT. A SHORT BURST OF SNOW WILL CREATE
IFR CONDITIONS. BEHIND THE SNOW...CIGS WILL RANGE FROM MVFR TO
IFR WITH POSSIBLE IFR VIS IN DRIZZLE. AREAS OF FOG ARE EXPECTED
TO MOVE INTO BGR AND BHB LATER IN THE NIGHT.

SHORT TERM: MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED THUR MRNG IN PATCHY
DRIZZLE AND AREAS OF FOG UNTIL STEADIER RAIN CAN MOVE INTO
TERMINALS THUR AFTN. SNOW WORKS IN FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THUR NIGHT
INTO FRI MRNG WITH RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE. PRECIPITATION EXPECTED
TO CHANGE TO RAIN DURING THE AFTN AT BHB AND BGR WITH MIXED
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED AT OTHER TERMINALS. RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED
IN -SHSN THRU SAT MRNG BFR BECOMING VFR SAT.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WILL ISSUE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT WITH WIND
GUSTS EXCEEDING 25 KTS AND SEAS AROUND 6 FT. HAVE REDUCED WINDS
FROM MODEL OUTPUT WITH THE WARM ADVECTION OVER THE COLD WATERS.

SHORT TERM: SEAS WILL INCREASE LATE THURSDAY AFTN AS LOW PRESSURE
HEADS ACROSS NORTHEASTERN U.S. EXPECT SEAS TO RANGE FROM 6-10FT
THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. WAVES WILL LIKELY STILL REMAIN ABOVE SCA
THROUGH END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL/QPF OF AROUND 0.50 INCHES EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF CWA WITH AROUND 1 INCH FOR THE DOWNEAST REGION. THE
WARMUP AND PROJECTED RAINFALL WILL LEAD TO SUBSTANTIAL SNOWMELT
AND RUNOFF THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS COULD ALSO LEAD TO SOME ICE
MOVEMENT ON THE RIVERS AND STREAMS, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
PISCATAQUIS, PENOBSCOT AND ST. CROIX RIVER BASINS. ATTM, WE ARE
NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT FLOODING ON THE RIVERS AS THE
SNOWPACK SHOULD BE ABLE TO HANDLE THE THE RAINFALL INITIALLY
BEFORE RIPENING ALLOWING FOR RUNOFF.

THE BIGGEST ISSUE W/THE SNOWMELT AND RAINFALL WILL BE URBAN
PROBLEMS DUE TO POOR DRAINAGE AND CLOGGED STORM DRAINS. THIS WILL
NEED TO BE MONITORED AS WE MOVE CLOSER TO THE EVENT.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HEWITT
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...HEWITT/
MARINE...HEWITT/
HYDROLOGY...




000
FXUS61 KCAR 251839
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
239 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST THIS EVENING. A WARM FRONT WILL
CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
2 PM UPDATE...ADJUSTED MAXES DOWN ACROSS THE DONWEAST AND COAST
DUE TO SSW FLOW COMING IN OFF THE COLD GULF OF MAINE WATERS.

17Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWED HIGH PRES MOVING E W/A SSW FLOW SETTING
UP. THIS HAS ALLOWED THE WESTERN AREAS TO WARM UP QUICKLY INTO
THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S WHILE AREAS SUCH AS BANGOR AND BAR
HARBOR HAVE BEEN IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. DEWPOINTS RUNNING
IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS AIDING IN EVAPORATION OF THE SNOWPACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A WEAKENING WARM OCCLUSION WILL MOVE RAPIDLY INTO THE AREA LATE
THIS EVENING AND PROVIDE A QUICK HIT OF UP TO A HALF INCH OF WET
SNOW BEFORE CHANGING TO FREEZING DRIZZLE AND DRIZZLE AS WARM AIR
PUSHES INTO THE AREA. AREAS OF FOG WILL DEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY TOWARDS BANGOR AND THE COAST. TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL DROP OFF EARLY THIS EVENING AND THEN RISE SLOWLY FOR
THE DURATION OF THE NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WMFNT MVS THRU CWA BY START OF SHORT TERM PD. THIS WL LV AREA IN
WMSECTOR DRG THE DAY WITH SW FLOW DRAWING IN WM TEMPS WITH HIGHS
REACHING INTO THE 40S OUTSIDE OF FAR NERN ZONES. HV SIDED MORE TWD
GFS WITH EVENTUAL TRACK OF UPCOMING SYSTEM AS IT CLUSTERS WITH EC
AND CMC, WITH NAM A FAR SOUTHERN OUTLIER. H9 TEMPS ON 00Z GFS SOAR
ABV 0C 12Z THURSDAY. WITH AREA BEING IN WMSECTOR HV OPTED TO GO WITH
PATCHY DRIZZLE AND AREAS OF FOG FOR MOST OF AREA DRG THE MRNG HRS
WITH A GRADUAL INCRS IN LGT RAIN FM THE SW AS LOPRES HEADS UP FRONTAL
BNDRY.

BY 00Z FRI MED RANGE MODELS (GFS, EC AND CMC) ARE ALL CLUSTERING
SFC LOPRES ARND THE BERSKSHIRES WITH THE NAM DOWN ACRS THE
DELMARVA. THIS GIVES INCREASED CONFIDENCE WITH A FURTHER NORTH
SOLN TO FRONTAL BNDRY LOCATION ALONG COAST AS OPPOSED TO FARTHER
OFFSHORE. EXPECT WIDESPREAD PCPN THUR NGT AS CWA IS LOCATED IN RRQ
OF H3 JET STREAK LEADING TO ENHANCED LIFT ALONG WITH CONVERGENCE
ALONG BAROCLINIC ZONE. MOISTURE WL BE STREAMING NWD FM GOM AS PW
VALUES APCH 1 INCH OVR DOWNEAST ZONES THUR EVNG/NGT. WIDESPREAD
QPF AMNTS FM LATE THUR AFTN THRU FRI MRNG LOOK TO AVG ARND 0.75
INCHES OVR SRN ZONES.

AS SFC LOW HEADS EAST INTO MARITIMES CLD AIR WL BE DRAWN IN ON
NRLY FLOW, ALLOWING SNOW TO BEGIN MIXING IN ACRS THE NORTH FRI
EVNG AND EVENTUALLY SPREADING ALL THE WAY TO THE COAST BY MRNG.
HWVR, WITH THE STRONG MARCH SUN EXPECT TEMPS TO RCVR INTO THE 40S
DRG THE DAY AND ALLOWING PCPN TO SWITCH BACK OVR TO RAIN. ONLY
LOCATIONS EXPECTED TO SEE SNOW DRG THE COURSE OF THE DAY IS IN
HIGHER TERRAIN OVR THE CROWN OF MAINE. NORTHWEST AROOSTOOK/NRN
SOMERSET AND NRN PISCATAQUIS CNTYS MAY SEE A QUICK SEVERAL INCHES
OF SNOW THRU THE END OF THE SHORT TERM.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIPRES WL BE BUILDING INTO AREA FM THE WEST FRI NGT AND JUST
EXPECTING OROGRAPHICALLY DRIVEN SNOW SHOWERS OVR FAR NORTH.
SATURDAY LKLY TO BE COLDEST DAY OF THE PD WITH NRLY FLOW FM CANADA
BRINGING H8 TEMPS AS LOW AS -15C DRG THE DAY, YIELDING HIGHS ONLY
IN THE M20S ACRS THE NORTH TO M30S ALONG THE COAST. HIGH WL CREST
ACRS THE REGION ON SUNDAY WITH TEMPS MODERATING THRU EARLY NEXT
WEEK. WARM ADVECTION WL OCCUR ON MONDAY AHD OF NEXT SYSTEM
DROPPING THRU CANADA. THIS SYSTEM WL BRING LGT SNOW INTO THE AREA
IN THE MRNG THEN SLOWLY MIX WITH AND CHG TO RAIN BY AFTN. EXPECT
THIS SYSTEM TO BE A QUICK MVR WITH ANOTHER SHOT OF CLD AIR
FOLLOWING IN BEHIND IT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR UNTIL TONIGHT. A SHORT BURST OF SNOW WILL CREATE
IFR CONDITIONS. BEHIND THE SNOW...CIGS WILL RANGE FROM MVFR TO
IFR WITH POSSIBLE IFR VIS IN DRIZZLE. AREAS OF FOG ARE EXPECTED
TO MOVE INTO BGR AND BHB LATER IN THE NIGHT.

SHORT TERM: MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED THUR MRNG IN PATCHY
DRIZZLE AND AREAS OF FOG UNTIL STEADIER RAIN CAN MOVE INTO
TERMINALS THUR AFTN. SNOW WORKS IN FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THUR NIGHT
INTO FRI MRNG WITH RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE. PRECIPITATION EXPECTED
TO CHANGE TO RAIN DURING THE AFTN AT BHB AND BGR WITH MIXED
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED AT OTHER TERMINALS. RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED
IN -SHSN THRU SAT MRNG BFR BECOMING VFR SAT.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WILL ISSUE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT WITH WIND
GUSTS EXCEEDING 25 KTS AND SEAS AROUND 6 FT. HAVE REDUCED WINDS
FROM MODEL OUTPUT WITH THE WARM ADVECTION OVER THE COLD WATERS.

SHORT TERM: SEAS WILL INCREASE LATE THURSDAY AFTN AS LOW PRESSURE
HEADS ACROSS NORTHEASTERN U.S. EXPECT SEAS TO RANGE FROM 6-10FT
THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. WAVES WILL LIKELY STILL REMAIN ABOVE SCA
THROUGH END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL/QPF OF AROUND 0.50 INCHES EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF CWA WITH AROUND 1 INCH FOR THE DOWNEAST REGION. THE
WARMUP AND PROJECTED RAINFALL WILL LEAD TO SUBSTANTIAL SNOWMELT
AND RUNOFF THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS COULD ALSO LEAD TO SOME ICE
MOVEMENT ON THE RIVERS AND STREAMS, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
PISCATAQUIS, PENOBSCOT AND ST. CROIX RIVER BASINS. ATTM, WE ARE
NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT FLOODING ON THE RIVERS AS THE
SNOWPACK SHOULD BE ABLE TO HANDLE THE THE RAINFALL INITIALLY
BEFORE RIPENING ALLOWING FOR RUNOFF.

THE BIGGEST ISSUE W/THE SNOWMELT AND RAINFALL WILL BE URBAN
PROBLEMS DUE TO POOR DRAINAGE AND CLOGGED STORM DRAINS. THIS WILL
NEED TO BE MONITORED AS WE MOVE CLOSER TO THE EVENT.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HEWITT
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...HEWITT/
MARINE...HEWITT/
HYDROLOGY...



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