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000
FXUS61 KCAR 012000
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
400 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
THIS WEEKEND BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING THIS AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER SHORTWAVE
TRAVERSES ACROSS THE REGION. THIS ACTIVITY WILL QUICKLY MOVE INTO
NEW BRUNSWICK BY THIS EVENING AS THE SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO PUSH
EAST. THEREAFTER, SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING
BRIEFLY BUILDS INTO THE AREA. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 50S IN MOST LOCATIONS.

FOR TOMORROW...ANOTHER UPPPER SHORTWAVE WILL TREK ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS,
MAINLY TO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID
70S NORTH, TO AROUND 80 ACROSS INTERIOR DOWNEAST.


&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CWA WL BE IN TRANSITION FM HIPRES TO APPCHG LOPRES ON SUN NGT.
LOPRES WL MV INTO ERN QUEBEC WITH TRAILING CDFNT BACK TO THE WEST BY
12Z MON. 12Z MODELS DIFFER ON PLACEMENT OF FRONT BY THIS TIME WITH
GFS FURTHER WEST THAN NAM/CMC. H5 FLOW BCMS ZONAL AT THE START OF
THE SHORT TERM WITH BRIEF RIDGING THRU MOST OF THE OVRNGT. RIDGE WL
DEFLECT S/WVS OFF TO THE NW WITH ONLY ISOLD SHRA OR THUNDER EXPECTED
ACRS THE FAR NORTH TWD DAYBREAK AS UPR TROF AND ASSOC FRONT APPCHS.
MIN TEMPS SUN NGT WL BE FAIRLY UNIFORM ACRS CWA IN THE U50S. SRLY
FLOW ACRS DOWNEAST WL KEEP TEMPS WARM AND CLDY SKIES ACRS THE NW WL
KEEP TEMPS FM DROPPING OFF TOO MUCH DRG THE NIGHT. ELEVATED
INSTABILITY EXPECTED TO BE PRESENT THRU 04Z ACRS THE CROWN OF MAINE.

AIRMASS WL LKLY DESTABILIZE AHD OF NEXT APPCHG FRONT ON MONDAY.
TEMPS WL WARM INTO THE L/M 80S AS TEMPS SOAR ABV 20C. BUFKIT SNDGS
INDICATE 500-1000 J/KG PER GFS FOR MON AFTN WHILE NAM IS ABOUT 2X
AS HIGH. CYCLONICALLY-CURVED HODOGRAPH ALONG WITH STRONG BULK
SHEAR VALUES AND STRONG MID-LVL LAPSE RATES WL LKLY SPELL THE NEXT
SVR THREAT LATE AFTN INTO THE EVNG.

FROPA OCCURS SOMETIME TUE MRNG WITH CONTD SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
TSTORMS AHD OF UPR LVL TROF. MAXES ON TUE WL BE RIGHT ARND NORMAL
AS SHOWERS AND CLOUDS PREVENT MUCH RISE IN TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD IS A SERIES OF
WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES THAT ARE PROGGED TO PROPAGATE EWD
ACROSS MAINE. EACH WAVE COULD PRODUCE ISOLD/SCTD SHOWERS AND
STORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF OUR CWA...WITH THE BEST
CHANCE OCCURRING ON WEDNESDAY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL HAVE A STRONG
DIURNAL COMPONENT...SO WE ARE EXPECTING MOST OF THE PRECIP TO FALL
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER WITH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MID
70S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MAINLY VFR EXPECTED AFTER 00Z SUNDAY AS SKIES WILL
CLEAR OUT. LOCAL IFR WILL BE POSSIBLE UNTIL THEN IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. VFR WILL PREVAIL 18Z SUNDAY, THEN LOCAL
MVFR IS POSSIBLE AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS AS SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM: VFR EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY MORNING BEFORE LINE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF FRONT BRINGS MVFR AND POSSIBLY
IFR CONDITIONS TO TERMINALS LATE MON AFTERNOON CONTINUING THROUGH
THE DAY ON TUESDAY. VFR AND OCCASIONAL MVFR CAN BE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES
THROUGH THEN VFR AFTER.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT
AND SUNDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN AT 10 TO 15 KT AND WAVES AROUND 3
FEET THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF FRONT MAY
ALLOW SEAS TO BUILD ABOVE 5 FEET ON TUESDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HASTINGS
SHORT TERM...FARRAR
LONG TERM...BERDES
AVIATION...HASTINGS/FARRAR
MARINE...HASTINGS/FARRAR




000
FXUS61 KCAR 012000
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
400 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
THIS WEEKEND BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING THIS AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER SHORTWAVE
TRAVERSES ACROSS THE REGION. THIS ACTIVITY WILL QUICKLY MOVE INTO
NEW BRUNSWICK BY THIS EVENING AS THE SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO PUSH
EAST. THEREAFTER, SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING
BRIEFLY BUILDS INTO THE AREA. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 50S IN MOST LOCATIONS.

FOR TOMORROW...ANOTHER UPPPER SHORTWAVE WILL TREK ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS,
MAINLY TO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID
70S NORTH, TO AROUND 80 ACROSS INTERIOR DOWNEAST.


&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CWA WL BE IN TRANSITION FM HIPRES TO APPCHG LOPRES ON SUN NGT.
LOPRES WL MV INTO ERN QUEBEC WITH TRAILING CDFNT BACK TO THE WEST BY
12Z MON. 12Z MODELS DIFFER ON PLACEMENT OF FRONT BY THIS TIME WITH
GFS FURTHER WEST THAN NAM/CMC. H5 FLOW BCMS ZONAL AT THE START OF
THE SHORT TERM WITH BRIEF RIDGING THRU MOST OF THE OVRNGT. RIDGE WL
DEFLECT S/WVS OFF TO THE NW WITH ONLY ISOLD SHRA OR THUNDER EXPECTED
ACRS THE FAR NORTH TWD DAYBREAK AS UPR TROF AND ASSOC FRONT APPCHS.
MIN TEMPS SUN NGT WL BE FAIRLY UNIFORM ACRS CWA IN THE U50S. SRLY
FLOW ACRS DOWNEAST WL KEEP TEMPS WARM AND CLDY SKIES ACRS THE NW WL
KEEP TEMPS FM DROPPING OFF TOO MUCH DRG THE NIGHT. ELEVATED
INSTABILITY EXPECTED TO BE PRESENT THRU 04Z ACRS THE CROWN OF MAINE.

AIRMASS WL LKLY DESTABILIZE AHD OF NEXT APPCHG FRONT ON MONDAY.
TEMPS WL WARM INTO THE L/M 80S AS TEMPS SOAR ABV 20C. BUFKIT SNDGS
INDICATE 500-1000 J/KG PER GFS FOR MON AFTN WHILE NAM IS ABOUT 2X
AS HIGH. CYCLONICALLY-CURVED HODOGRAPH ALONG WITH STRONG BULK
SHEAR VALUES AND STRONG MID-LVL LAPSE RATES WL LKLY SPELL THE NEXT
SVR THREAT LATE AFTN INTO THE EVNG.

FROPA OCCURS SOMETIME TUE MRNG WITH CONTD SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
TSTORMS AHD OF UPR LVL TROF. MAXES ON TUE WL BE RIGHT ARND NORMAL
AS SHOWERS AND CLOUDS PREVENT MUCH RISE IN TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD IS A SERIES OF
WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES THAT ARE PROGGED TO PROPAGATE EWD
ACROSS MAINE. EACH WAVE COULD PRODUCE ISOLD/SCTD SHOWERS AND
STORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF OUR CWA...WITH THE BEST
CHANCE OCCURRING ON WEDNESDAY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL HAVE A STRONG
DIURNAL COMPONENT...SO WE ARE EXPECTING MOST OF THE PRECIP TO FALL
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER WITH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MID
70S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MAINLY VFR EXPECTED AFTER 00Z SUNDAY AS SKIES WILL
CLEAR OUT. LOCAL IFR WILL BE POSSIBLE UNTIL THEN IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. VFR WILL PREVAIL 18Z SUNDAY, THEN LOCAL
MVFR IS POSSIBLE AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS AS SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM: VFR EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY MORNING BEFORE LINE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF FRONT BRINGS MVFR AND POSSIBLY
IFR CONDITIONS TO TERMINALS LATE MON AFTERNOON CONTINUING THROUGH
THE DAY ON TUESDAY. VFR AND OCCASIONAL MVFR CAN BE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES
THROUGH THEN VFR AFTER.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT
AND SUNDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN AT 10 TO 15 KT AND WAVES AROUND 3
FEET THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF FRONT MAY
ALLOW SEAS TO BUILD ABOVE 5 FEET ON TUESDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HASTINGS
SHORT TERM...FARRAR
LONG TERM...BERDES
AVIATION...HASTINGS/FARRAR
MARINE...HASTINGS/FARRAR


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000
FXUS61 KGYX 011905
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
305 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE REGION THIS EVENING AS SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COME TO AN END. TEMPERATURES AND
HUMIDITY DROP OFF A LITTLE MORE BEHIND THIS FRONT. SUNDAY SHOULD
BE MAINLY DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. WEAK LOW
PRESSURE ALOFT...SITUATED OVER QUEBEC...WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND
SHOWERS OR STORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SURFACE COLD FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL BE EXITING
TO OUR EAST THIS EVENING. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO ANY REMAINING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. AS SKIES BEGIN TO
CLEAR AND WINDS BECOME LIGHT...PATCHY INLAND VALLEY FOG WILL FORM.
LOCALLY...THE VISIBILITY MAY DROP DOWN BELOW A MILE IN SOME
LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS SUNDAY MORNING WITH RIDGING OCCURRING ALOFT.
HOWEVER...IN THE AFTERNOON...A LARGE SCALE UPPER TROUGH WILL
BEGIN TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST. WITH CYCLONIC FLOW AND COLD
AIR ALOFT...DIURNALLY DRIVEN CU WILL FORM - MAINLY OVER NORTHERN
AREAS. THERE MAY BE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE FOR A SPRINKLE OR A BRIEF
SHOWER...AGAIN...MAINLY CONFINED TO THE FAR NORTH. HOWEVER...HAVE
KEPT POPS RELATIVELY LOW FOR THE DAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUNDAY NIGHT.
THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE LATE AT NIGHT ALONG
THE CANADIAN BORDER. THIS TAKES US TO THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE
DISCUSSION WITH A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR
THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WARM MOIST AIR MOVES BACK INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA WARM
INTO THE 80S WITH A FEW LOW 90S POSSIBLE IN SOUTHERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE. THE INCREASING MOISTURE AT THE SURFACE WILL GENERATE
INSTABILITY WHILE THE ADVANCING HEAT ALOFT (700 MB) WILL SERVE AS
A CAP TO PREVENT ACCESS TO THAT INSTABILITY UNLESS A FORCING
MECHANISM CAN BE FOUND TO OVERCOME THE CAP. AS THE UPPER TROUGH
GETS CLOSER TO THE AREA LATER IN THE DAY IT WILL BEGIN ERODING THE
CAP AND ALLOW GREATER ACCESS TO THE INSTABILITY IN ADDITION TO
PROVIDING UPPER LEVEL LIFT AND PUSHING A SURFACE COLD FRONT
EASTWARD. AS A RESULT... EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THE
TROUGH AND COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH BUT THIS MAY NOT OCCUR UNTIL
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS
IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON HOLDING PRECIPITATION OFF UNTIL LATE
AFTERNOON AT THE EARLIEST. THE NAM IS ACTUALLY THE FASTEST OF ALL
THE MODELS IN SPITE OF ITS NORMAL SLOW BIAS... TRIGGERING STORMS
AROUND MID AFTERNOON.

WITH THE INSTABILITY PRESENT (1000 OR MORE CAPE) ON TUESDAY THERE
WILL ALSO BE A SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT OF WIND SHEAR. MID LEVEL WINDS
WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 45 OR 50 KT WHILE SURFACE
WINDS ARE LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTH. THIS WOULD BE PLENTY SUFFICIENT
FOR SUPERCELLS OR A MORE ORGANIZED DAMAGING WIND THREAT. THIS IS
IN AGREEMENT WITH THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER`S OUTLOOK FOR MONDAY
ALSO. HAVE INCLUDED DAMAGING WINDS WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS ON
MONDAY TO HIGHLIGHT THIS THREAT WHICH WILL BE GREATEST OVER NEW
HAMPSHIRE AND FAR WESTERN MAINE.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS AND SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD CLEAR
THE AREA BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING... HOWEVER SOME INSTABILITY
STILL EXISTS BEHIND IT AND AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM CANNOT BE
RULED OUT AS THE PRIMARY UPPER LOW AND TROUGH AXIS MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA.

COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. EXPECT A LITTLE COOLER TEMPERATURES... ALTHOUGH AN
OFFSHORE WIND WILL STILL ALLOW COASTAL AREAS TO GET INTO THE UPPER
70S AND LOW 80S.

THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES ON
SATURDAY AND TRIGGER CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST INTO
SUNDAY. AN AREA OF RAIN WILL LIKELY FORM AND TRACK THROUGH
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND POSSIBLY INTO SOUTHERN PARTS OF MAINE AND
NEW HAMPSHIRE BUT SEEMS MORE LIKELY TO STAY JUST SOUTH OF OUR AREA
AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE NEAR
OR OVER THE TAF SITES INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE CLEARING
WITH PATCHY INLAND FOG DEVELOPING.  WINDS WILL BE LIGHT.

ON SUNDAY...DIURNALLY DRIVEN CU FIELDS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE
DAY. ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD BE LIGHT AND MAINLY CONFINED TO
THE NORTH.  MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS.

LONG TERM...EARLY MORNING MARINE FOG OR LOW CLOUDS IS POSSIBLE
ALONG THE MAINE COASTLINE MONDAY MORNING. SHOULD SEE VFR
CONDITIONS AREAWIDE BY LATE MORNING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CROSS THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THEN EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF NOCTURNAL
FOG IN THE NEW HAMPSHIRE VALLEYS FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...EXPECT WAVES AND WINDS TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
LEVELS THROUGH SUNDAY. HOWEVER...SEAS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT IN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

LONG TERM...SOUTHERLY FLOW ON MONDAY SHOULD STAY BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS BUT WAVE HEIGHTS COULD EVENTUALLY BUILD TO AROUND 5 FEET
ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN WATERS. A COLD FRONT MOVES WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE ON TUESDAY WITH LIGHTER WINDS BEHIND IT.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KGYX 011905
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
305 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE REGION THIS EVENING AS SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COME TO AN END. TEMPERATURES AND
HUMIDITY DROP OFF A LITTLE MORE BEHIND THIS FRONT. SUNDAY SHOULD
BE MAINLY DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. WEAK LOW
PRESSURE ALOFT...SITUATED OVER QUEBEC...WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND
SHOWERS OR STORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SURFACE COLD FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL BE EXITING
TO OUR EAST THIS EVENING. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO ANY REMAINING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. AS SKIES BEGIN TO
CLEAR AND WINDS BECOME LIGHT...PATCHY INLAND VALLEY FOG WILL FORM.
LOCALLY...THE VISIBILITY MAY DROP DOWN BELOW A MILE IN SOME
LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS SUNDAY MORNING WITH RIDGING OCCURRING ALOFT.
HOWEVER...IN THE AFTERNOON...A LARGE SCALE UPPER TROUGH WILL
BEGIN TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST. WITH CYCLONIC FLOW AND COLD
AIR ALOFT...DIURNALLY DRIVEN CU WILL FORM - MAINLY OVER NORTHERN
AREAS. THERE MAY BE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE FOR A SPRINKLE OR A BRIEF
SHOWER...AGAIN...MAINLY CONFINED TO THE FAR NORTH. HOWEVER...HAVE
KEPT POPS RELATIVELY LOW FOR THE DAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUNDAY NIGHT.
THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE LATE AT NIGHT ALONG
THE CANADIAN BORDER. THIS TAKES US TO THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE
DISCUSSION WITH A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR
THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WARM MOIST AIR MOVES BACK INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA WARM
INTO THE 80S WITH A FEW LOW 90S POSSIBLE IN SOUTHERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE. THE INCREASING MOISTURE AT THE SURFACE WILL GENERATE
INSTABILITY WHILE THE ADVANCING HEAT ALOFT (700 MB) WILL SERVE AS
A CAP TO PREVENT ACCESS TO THAT INSTABILITY UNLESS A FORCING
MECHANISM CAN BE FOUND TO OVERCOME THE CAP. AS THE UPPER TROUGH
GETS CLOSER TO THE AREA LATER IN THE DAY IT WILL BEGIN ERODING THE
CAP AND ALLOW GREATER ACCESS TO THE INSTABILITY IN ADDITION TO
PROVIDING UPPER LEVEL LIFT AND PUSHING A SURFACE COLD FRONT
EASTWARD. AS A RESULT... EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THE
TROUGH AND COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH BUT THIS MAY NOT OCCUR UNTIL
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS
IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON HOLDING PRECIPITATION OFF UNTIL LATE
AFTERNOON AT THE EARLIEST. THE NAM IS ACTUALLY THE FASTEST OF ALL
THE MODELS IN SPITE OF ITS NORMAL SLOW BIAS... TRIGGERING STORMS
AROUND MID AFTERNOON.

WITH THE INSTABILITY PRESENT (1000 OR MORE CAPE) ON TUESDAY THERE
WILL ALSO BE A SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT OF WIND SHEAR. MID LEVEL WINDS
WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 45 OR 50 KT WHILE SURFACE
WINDS ARE LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTH. THIS WOULD BE PLENTY SUFFICIENT
FOR SUPERCELLS OR A MORE ORGANIZED DAMAGING WIND THREAT. THIS IS
IN AGREEMENT WITH THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER`S OUTLOOK FOR MONDAY
ALSO. HAVE INCLUDED DAMAGING WINDS WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS ON
MONDAY TO HIGHLIGHT THIS THREAT WHICH WILL BE GREATEST OVER NEW
HAMPSHIRE AND FAR WESTERN MAINE.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS AND SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD CLEAR
THE AREA BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING... HOWEVER SOME INSTABILITY
STILL EXISTS BEHIND IT AND AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM CANNOT BE
RULED OUT AS THE PRIMARY UPPER LOW AND TROUGH AXIS MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA.

COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. EXPECT A LITTLE COOLER TEMPERATURES... ALTHOUGH AN
OFFSHORE WIND WILL STILL ALLOW COASTAL AREAS TO GET INTO THE UPPER
70S AND LOW 80S.

THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES ON
SATURDAY AND TRIGGER CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST INTO
SUNDAY. AN AREA OF RAIN WILL LIKELY FORM AND TRACK THROUGH
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND POSSIBLY INTO SOUTHERN PARTS OF MAINE AND
NEW HAMPSHIRE BUT SEEMS MORE LIKELY TO STAY JUST SOUTH OF OUR AREA
AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE NEAR
OR OVER THE TAF SITES INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE CLEARING
WITH PATCHY INLAND FOG DEVELOPING.  WINDS WILL BE LIGHT.

ON SUNDAY...DIURNALLY DRIVEN CU FIELDS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE
DAY. ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD BE LIGHT AND MAINLY CONFINED TO
THE NORTH.  MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS.

LONG TERM...EARLY MORNING MARINE FOG OR LOW CLOUDS IS POSSIBLE
ALONG THE MAINE COASTLINE MONDAY MORNING. SHOULD SEE VFR
CONDITIONS AREAWIDE BY LATE MORNING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CROSS THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THEN EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF NOCTURNAL
FOG IN THE NEW HAMPSHIRE VALLEYS FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...EXPECT WAVES AND WINDS TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
LEVELS THROUGH SUNDAY. HOWEVER...SEAS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT IN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

LONG TERM...SOUTHERLY FLOW ON MONDAY SHOULD STAY BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS BUT WAVE HEIGHTS COULD EVENTUALLY BUILD TO AROUND 5 FEET
ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN WATERS. A COLD FRONT MOVES WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE ON TUESDAY WITH LIGHTER WINDS BEHIND IT.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KCAR 011630
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1230 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
THIS WEEKEND BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1225 PM UPDATE...PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. WE CURRENTLY SEE A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS AROOSTOOK AND NORTHERN
PENOBSCOT AND PISCATAQUIS COUNTIES, SLIDING EASTWARD. IN ADDITION,
WE`RE STARTING TO SEE POP UP SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
HIGHLANDS AND INTERIOR DOWNEAST. THIS CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST AND DAYTTIME HEATING CONTINUES. LATEST SPC MESOSCALE ANALYSIS
SHOWS SB CAPES UP T0 1000 J/KG AND 30-45KT OF 0-6KM SHEAR. STILL
EXPECT SOME THUNDERSTORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF PRODUCING GUSTY
WINDS AND HAIL, WITH A FEW POSSIBLY REACHING SEVERE LEVELS. THE
FORECAST PRETTY MUCH HAS ALL THIS COVERED. MAIN CHANGES WITH THIS
UPDATE WERE TO ADJUST POPS TO CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND ADJUST
TEMPERATURES WITH LATEST OBSERVATIONS. NO OTHER CHANGES WERE NEEDED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...FOCUS CONTINUES TO BE ON CONVECTION TODAY.
CONFIDENCE IS BUILDING THAT SOME CELLS COULD GO SEVERE. MORE ON
THIS BELOW.

06Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD WEAK HIGH PRES RIDGE TO THE E W/SFC
FRONT MOVING TOWARD QUEBEC. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS HAD SHOWN UP
EARLIERMOVING ACROSS THE W BUT DISSIPATED. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWED AREA OF CLOUDS MOVING NE ACROSS NORTHERN NYS INTO SOUTHERN
QUEBEC. FURTHER E, MAINLY CLEAR CONDITIONS. STRONG VORTICITY MAX
CAN BE SEEN SPINNING WEST OF THE QUEBEC PROVINCE. THE ATMOSPHERE
IS POISED TO DESTABILIZE THIS MORNING W/HEATING. LATEST MODEL
SOUNDINGS(GFS/NAM/WRF) INDICATE SB/MU CAPES TO HIT 1500+ JOULES BY
EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. LIS DROP TO A RANGE OF -3
TO -6. ENOUGH MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE AVAILABLE THROUGH 700MBS W/AN
INVERTED V IN THE LLVLS. 0-6KM SHEAR TO BE 30+ KTS W/GOOD COLD
POOL ALOFT. THEREFORE, AS THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED VORTICITY MAX
MOVES INTO THE REGION, SHOWERS AND SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INITIATE BY EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL AREAS
W/DECENT LAPSE RATES OF 6.5+ C/KM IN THE MID LEVELS. HAIL IS A
GOOD BET W/THE DRY AIR ALOFT AND COLD POOL. PLUS HAIL CAPE WAS
SHOWN TO BE AROUND 400+ JOULES WHICH IS IN THE RANGE FOR HAIL.

WIND GUSTS ARE BE A CONCERN DUE TO THE SHEAR AND A DECENT
JETSTREAK AT THE 700MBS FORECAST TO SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION. STORM
STRUCTURE WILL BE MULTICELLULAR W/A FEW CELLS REACHING NEAR SUPER
CELLS LIMITS IF STORMS CAN STAY ORGANIZED. OTHER PARAMETERS TO
SUPPORT POSSIBLE SEVERE TSTMS ARE TOTAL TOTALS HIT 50+ AND THE
SHOWALTER INDEX DROPS TO -2. SPC HAS KEPT THE CWA IN A MARGINAL
RISK FOR A FEW STORMS TO GO SEVERE W/LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WIND
GUSTS THE MAIN THREAT. THE FIRST SET OF ACTION WILL MOVE ACROSS
NORTH-CENTRAL AREAS BY EARLY AFTERNOON W/A 2ND AREA ACROSS THE
INTERIOR DOWNEAST INTO WASHINGTON COUNTY. PER COLLABORATION
W/GYX, KEPT ENHANCED WORDING FOR HAIL AND WIND GUSTS EXCEPT FOR
THE COAST AS A SEA BREEZE SETS UP BY EARLY AFTERNOON SHUTTING DOWN
THE STRONG CONVECTIVE THREAT. THIS SEA BREEZE COULD BE A PLAYER IN
STRENGTHENING CONVECTION AS IT COULD INTERACT W/CELLS MOVING
ACROSS THE INTERIOR DOWNEAST. THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL
BE UPDATED THIS MORNING TO REFLECT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL.

FOR TONIGHT, ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO WIND DOWN AND SHIFT E IN THE
EVENING AS THE FRONT AND UPPER SUPPORT MOVE INTO NEW BRUNSWICK.
PARTIAL CLEARING AND COOLER LATER IN THE EVENING. THIS COULD
ALLOW FOR FOG FORMATION ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT RECEIVED
RAINFALL. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE TOWARD THE WESTERN AREAS BY
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT DISTURBANCE
REFERENCED IN THE SHORT TERM SECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD A 500 MB LOW WILL BE SITUATED NEAR HUDSON
BAY. THIS WILL KEEP A WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION ON
SUNDAY. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION ON
SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS,
MAINLY TO NORTHERN AREAS DURING SUNDAY, OTHERWISE EXPECT PARTLY
TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S NORTH AND UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80
DOWNEAST, BUT IT WILL BE COOLER ALONG THE COAST.

SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED. LOWS
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60.

THE UPPER LOW OVER HUDSON BAY AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL
BEGIN TO DROP INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION WITH NORTHERN MAINE
STILL ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER RIDGE. AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE 80S ACROSS MOST
OF THE REGION AWAY FROM THE COAST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL START TO AFFECT WESTERN MAINE BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD
FRONT WILL BE ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER WELL INTO THE NIGHT ACROSS EASTERN AREAS
AS THE FRONT SLOWLY MOVES EAST. MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE MILD WITH
LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE COAST TUESDAY MORNING BUT A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA DURING TUESDAY
AFTERNOON WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FROM SHOWERS OR AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM.

THE SECONDARY FRONT WILL MOVE EAST TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A COOLER
AND DRIER AIR MASS TO FOLLOW FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL TROF ACROSS THE AREA.

THE UPPER TROF WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR DRY WEATHER WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. WE COULD ONCE AGAIN SEE SOME SHOWERS
RETURN BY NEXT WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MOST OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: BASICALLY VFR INTO TONIGHT OUTSIDE SOME SHRA AND TSRA
WHICH COULD BRING BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR AND PERHAPS IFR. HAIL AND
STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AT THE
TERMINALS W/THE EXCEPTION OF KBHB. VSBY OVERNIGHT COULD DROP TO
MVFR DUE TO EARLIER ACTIVITY AND COOLER BLYR.

SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREDOMINATE THROUGH THE PERIOD
OUTSIDE OF LCL MVFR IN ANY SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SOUTH SWELL LOOKS BE SETTING UP W/A PERIOD OF 8
SECONDS. THE SWELL IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT W/WAVE
HEIGHTS BUILDING TO A RANGE OF 2-4 FT. THE OUTER ZONES COULD SEE
3-5 IN SWELLS W/PERIODS OF 9-10 SECONDS. WINDS WILL PICK UP SOME
THIS EVENING W/THE FROPA TO 10-15 KTS AND AGAIN THIS WILL BE
MAINLY THE CASE FOR THE OUTER ZONES.

SHORT TERM: WIND/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HASTINGS/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...HASTINGS/HEWITT/DUDA
MARINE...HASTINGS/HEWITT/DUDA




000
FXUS61 KCAR 011630
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1230 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
THIS WEEKEND BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1225 PM UPDATE...PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. WE CURRENTLY SEE A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS AROOSTOOK AND NORTHERN
PENOBSCOT AND PISCATAQUIS COUNTIES, SLIDING EASTWARD. IN ADDITION,
WE`RE STARTING TO SEE POP UP SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
HIGHLANDS AND INTERIOR DOWNEAST. THIS CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST AND DAYTTIME HEATING CONTINUES. LATEST SPC MESOSCALE ANALYSIS
SHOWS SB CAPES UP T0 1000 J/KG AND 30-45KT OF 0-6KM SHEAR. STILL
EXPECT SOME THUNDERSTORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF PRODUCING GUSTY
WINDS AND HAIL, WITH A FEW POSSIBLY REACHING SEVERE LEVELS. THE
FORECAST PRETTY MUCH HAS ALL THIS COVERED. MAIN CHANGES WITH THIS
UPDATE WERE TO ADJUST POPS TO CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND ADJUST
TEMPERATURES WITH LATEST OBSERVATIONS. NO OTHER CHANGES WERE NEEDED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...FOCUS CONTINUES TO BE ON CONVECTION TODAY.
CONFIDENCE IS BUILDING THAT SOME CELLS COULD GO SEVERE. MORE ON
THIS BELOW.

06Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD WEAK HIGH PRES RIDGE TO THE E W/SFC
FRONT MOVING TOWARD QUEBEC. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS HAD SHOWN UP
EARLIERMOVING ACROSS THE W BUT DISSIPATED. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWED AREA OF CLOUDS MOVING NE ACROSS NORTHERN NYS INTO SOUTHERN
QUEBEC. FURTHER E, MAINLY CLEAR CONDITIONS. STRONG VORTICITY MAX
CAN BE SEEN SPINNING WEST OF THE QUEBEC PROVINCE. THE ATMOSPHERE
IS POISED TO DESTABILIZE THIS MORNING W/HEATING. LATEST MODEL
SOUNDINGS(GFS/NAM/WRF) INDICATE SB/MU CAPES TO HIT 1500+ JOULES BY
EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. LIS DROP TO A RANGE OF -3
TO -6. ENOUGH MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE AVAILABLE THROUGH 700MBS W/AN
INVERTED V IN THE LLVLS. 0-6KM SHEAR TO BE 30+ KTS W/GOOD COLD
POOL ALOFT. THEREFORE, AS THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED VORTICITY MAX
MOVES INTO THE REGION, SHOWERS AND SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INITIATE BY EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL AREAS
W/DECENT LAPSE RATES OF 6.5+ C/KM IN THE MID LEVELS. HAIL IS A
GOOD BET W/THE DRY AIR ALOFT AND COLD POOL. PLUS HAIL CAPE WAS
SHOWN TO BE AROUND 400+ JOULES WHICH IS IN THE RANGE FOR HAIL.

WIND GUSTS ARE BE A CONCERN DUE TO THE SHEAR AND A DECENT
JETSTREAK AT THE 700MBS FORECAST TO SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION. STORM
STRUCTURE WILL BE MULTICELLULAR W/A FEW CELLS REACHING NEAR SUPER
CELLS LIMITS IF STORMS CAN STAY ORGANIZED. OTHER PARAMETERS TO
SUPPORT POSSIBLE SEVERE TSTMS ARE TOTAL TOTALS HIT 50+ AND THE
SHOWALTER INDEX DROPS TO -2. SPC HAS KEPT THE CWA IN A MARGINAL
RISK FOR A FEW STORMS TO GO SEVERE W/LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WIND
GUSTS THE MAIN THREAT. THE FIRST SET OF ACTION WILL MOVE ACROSS
NORTH-CENTRAL AREAS BY EARLY AFTERNOON W/A 2ND AREA ACROSS THE
INTERIOR DOWNEAST INTO WASHINGTON COUNTY. PER COLLABORATION
W/GYX, KEPT ENHANCED WORDING FOR HAIL AND WIND GUSTS EXCEPT FOR
THE COAST AS A SEA BREEZE SETS UP BY EARLY AFTERNOON SHUTTING DOWN
THE STRONG CONVECTIVE THREAT. THIS SEA BREEZE COULD BE A PLAYER IN
STRENGTHENING CONVECTION AS IT COULD INTERACT W/CELLS MOVING
ACROSS THE INTERIOR DOWNEAST. THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL
BE UPDATED THIS MORNING TO REFLECT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL.

FOR TONIGHT, ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO WIND DOWN AND SHIFT E IN THE
EVENING AS THE FRONT AND UPPER SUPPORT MOVE INTO NEW BRUNSWICK.
PARTIAL CLEARING AND COOLER LATER IN THE EVENING. THIS COULD
ALLOW FOR FOG FORMATION ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT RECEIVED
RAINFALL. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE TOWARD THE WESTERN AREAS BY
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT DISTURBANCE
REFERENCED IN THE SHORT TERM SECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD A 500 MB LOW WILL BE SITUATED NEAR HUDSON
BAY. THIS WILL KEEP A WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION ON
SUNDAY. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION ON
SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS,
MAINLY TO NORTHERN AREAS DURING SUNDAY, OTHERWISE EXPECT PARTLY
TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S NORTH AND UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80
DOWNEAST, BUT IT WILL BE COOLER ALONG THE COAST.

SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED. LOWS
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60.

THE UPPER LOW OVER HUDSON BAY AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL
BEGIN TO DROP INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION WITH NORTHERN MAINE
STILL ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER RIDGE. AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE 80S ACROSS MOST
OF THE REGION AWAY FROM THE COAST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL START TO AFFECT WESTERN MAINE BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD
FRONT WILL BE ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER WELL INTO THE NIGHT ACROSS EASTERN AREAS
AS THE FRONT SLOWLY MOVES EAST. MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE MILD WITH
LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE COAST TUESDAY MORNING BUT A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA DURING TUESDAY
AFTERNOON WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FROM SHOWERS OR AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM.

THE SECONDARY FRONT WILL MOVE EAST TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A COOLER
AND DRIER AIR MASS TO FOLLOW FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL TROF ACROSS THE AREA.

THE UPPER TROF WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR DRY WEATHER WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. WE COULD ONCE AGAIN SEE SOME SHOWERS
RETURN BY NEXT WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MOST OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: BASICALLY VFR INTO TONIGHT OUTSIDE SOME SHRA AND TSRA
WHICH COULD BRING BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR AND PERHAPS IFR. HAIL AND
STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AT THE
TERMINALS W/THE EXCEPTION OF KBHB. VSBY OVERNIGHT COULD DROP TO
MVFR DUE TO EARLIER ACTIVITY AND COOLER BLYR.

SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREDOMINATE THROUGH THE PERIOD
OUTSIDE OF LCL MVFR IN ANY SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SOUTH SWELL LOOKS BE SETTING UP W/A PERIOD OF 8
SECONDS. THE SWELL IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT W/WAVE
HEIGHTS BUILDING TO A RANGE OF 2-4 FT. THE OUTER ZONES COULD SEE
3-5 IN SWELLS W/PERIODS OF 9-10 SECONDS. WINDS WILL PICK UP SOME
THIS EVENING W/THE FROPA TO 10-15 KTS AND AGAIN THIS WILL BE
MAINLY THE CASE FOR THE OUTER ZONES.

SHORT TERM: WIND/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HASTINGS/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...HASTINGS/HEWITT/DUDA
MARINE...HASTINGS/HEWITT/DUDA




000
FXUS61 KCAR 011630
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1230 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
THIS WEEKEND BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1225 PM UPDATE...PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. WE CURRENTLY SEE A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS AROOSTOOK AND NORTHERN
PENOBSCOT AND PISCATAQUIS COUNTIES, SLIDING EASTWARD. IN ADDITION,
WE`RE STARTING TO SEE POP UP SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
HIGHLANDS AND INTERIOR DOWNEAST. THIS CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST AND DAYTTIME HEATING CONTINUES. LATEST SPC MESOSCALE ANALYSIS
SHOWS SB CAPES UP T0 1000 J/KG AND 30-45KT OF 0-6KM SHEAR. STILL
EXPECT SOME THUNDERSTORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF PRODUCING GUSTY
WINDS AND HAIL, WITH A FEW POSSIBLY REACHING SEVERE LEVELS. THE
FORECAST PRETTY MUCH HAS ALL THIS COVERED. MAIN CHANGES WITH THIS
UPDATE WERE TO ADJUST POPS TO CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND ADJUST
TEMPERATURES WITH LATEST OBSERVATIONS. NO OTHER CHANGES WERE NEEDED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...FOCUS CONTINUES TO BE ON CONVECTION TODAY.
CONFIDENCE IS BUILDING THAT SOME CELLS COULD GO SEVERE. MORE ON
THIS BELOW.

06Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD WEAK HIGH PRES RIDGE TO THE E W/SFC
FRONT MOVING TOWARD QUEBEC. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS HAD SHOWN UP
EARLIERMOVING ACROSS THE W BUT DISSIPATED. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWED AREA OF CLOUDS MOVING NE ACROSS NORTHERN NYS INTO SOUTHERN
QUEBEC. FURTHER E, MAINLY CLEAR CONDITIONS. STRONG VORTICITY MAX
CAN BE SEEN SPINNING WEST OF THE QUEBEC PROVINCE. THE ATMOSPHERE
IS POISED TO DESTABILIZE THIS MORNING W/HEATING. LATEST MODEL
SOUNDINGS(GFS/NAM/WRF) INDICATE SB/MU CAPES TO HIT 1500+ JOULES BY
EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. LIS DROP TO A RANGE OF -3
TO -6. ENOUGH MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE AVAILABLE THROUGH 700MBS W/AN
INVERTED V IN THE LLVLS. 0-6KM SHEAR TO BE 30+ KTS W/GOOD COLD
POOL ALOFT. THEREFORE, AS THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED VORTICITY MAX
MOVES INTO THE REGION, SHOWERS AND SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INITIATE BY EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL AREAS
W/DECENT LAPSE RATES OF 6.5+ C/KM IN THE MID LEVELS. HAIL IS A
GOOD BET W/THE DRY AIR ALOFT AND COLD POOL. PLUS HAIL CAPE WAS
SHOWN TO BE AROUND 400+ JOULES WHICH IS IN THE RANGE FOR HAIL.

WIND GUSTS ARE BE A CONCERN DUE TO THE SHEAR AND A DECENT
JETSTREAK AT THE 700MBS FORECAST TO SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION. STORM
STRUCTURE WILL BE MULTICELLULAR W/A FEW CELLS REACHING NEAR SUPER
CELLS LIMITS IF STORMS CAN STAY ORGANIZED. OTHER PARAMETERS TO
SUPPORT POSSIBLE SEVERE TSTMS ARE TOTAL TOTALS HIT 50+ AND THE
SHOWALTER INDEX DROPS TO -2. SPC HAS KEPT THE CWA IN A MARGINAL
RISK FOR A FEW STORMS TO GO SEVERE W/LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WIND
GUSTS THE MAIN THREAT. THE FIRST SET OF ACTION WILL MOVE ACROSS
NORTH-CENTRAL AREAS BY EARLY AFTERNOON W/A 2ND AREA ACROSS THE
INTERIOR DOWNEAST INTO WASHINGTON COUNTY. PER COLLABORATION
W/GYX, KEPT ENHANCED WORDING FOR HAIL AND WIND GUSTS EXCEPT FOR
THE COAST AS A SEA BREEZE SETS UP BY EARLY AFTERNOON SHUTTING DOWN
THE STRONG CONVECTIVE THREAT. THIS SEA BREEZE COULD BE A PLAYER IN
STRENGTHENING CONVECTION AS IT COULD INTERACT W/CELLS MOVING
ACROSS THE INTERIOR DOWNEAST. THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL
BE UPDATED THIS MORNING TO REFLECT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL.

FOR TONIGHT, ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO WIND DOWN AND SHIFT E IN THE
EVENING AS THE FRONT AND UPPER SUPPORT MOVE INTO NEW BRUNSWICK.
PARTIAL CLEARING AND COOLER LATER IN THE EVENING. THIS COULD
ALLOW FOR FOG FORMATION ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT RECEIVED
RAINFALL. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE TOWARD THE WESTERN AREAS BY
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT DISTURBANCE
REFERENCED IN THE SHORT TERM SECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD A 500 MB LOW WILL BE SITUATED NEAR HUDSON
BAY. THIS WILL KEEP A WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION ON
SUNDAY. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION ON
SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS,
MAINLY TO NORTHERN AREAS DURING SUNDAY, OTHERWISE EXPECT PARTLY
TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S NORTH AND UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80
DOWNEAST, BUT IT WILL BE COOLER ALONG THE COAST.

SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED. LOWS
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60.

THE UPPER LOW OVER HUDSON BAY AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL
BEGIN TO DROP INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION WITH NORTHERN MAINE
STILL ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER RIDGE. AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE 80S ACROSS MOST
OF THE REGION AWAY FROM THE COAST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL START TO AFFECT WESTERN MAINE BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD
FRONT WILL BE ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER WELL INTO THE NIGHT ACROSS EASTERN AREAS
AS THE FRONT SLOWLY MOVES EAST. MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE MILD WITH
LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE COAST TUESDAY MORNING BUT A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA DURING TUESDAY
AFTERNOON WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FROM SHOWERS OR AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM.

THE SECONDARY FRONT WILL MOVE EAST TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A COOLER
AND DRIER AIR MASS TO FOLLOW FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL TROF ACROSS THE AREA.

THE UPPER TROF WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR DRY WEATHER WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. WE COULD ONCE AGAIN SEE SOME SHOWERS
RETURN BY NEXT WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MOST OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: BASICALLY VFR INTO TONIGHT OUTSIDE SOME SHRA AND TSRA
WHICH COULD BRING BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR AND PERHAPS IFR. HAIL AND
STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AT THE
TERMINALS W/THE EXCEPTION OF KBHB. VSBY OVERNIGHT COULD DROP TO
MVFR DUE TO EARLIER ACTIVITY AND COOLER BLYR.

SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREDOMINATE THROUGH THE PERIOD
OUTSIDE OF LCL MVFR IN ANY SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SOUTH SWELL LOOKS BE SETTING UP W/A PERIOD OF 8
SECONDS. THE SWELL IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT W/WAVE
HEIGHTS BUILDING TO A RANGE OF 2-4 FT. THE OUTER ZONES COULD SEE
3-5 IN SWELLS W/PERIODS OF 9-10 SECONDS. WINDS WILL PICK UP SOME
THIS EVENING W/THE FROPA TO 10-15 KTS AND AGAIN THIS WILL BE
MAINLY THE CASE FOR THE OUTER ZONES.

SHORT TERM: WIND/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HASTINGS/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...HASTINGS/HEWITT/DUDA
MARINE...HASTINGS/HEWITT/DUDA




000
FXUS61 KCAR 011630
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1230 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
THIS WEEKEND BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1225 PM UPDATE...PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. WE CURRENTLY SEE A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS AROOSTOOK AND NORTHERN
PENOBSCOT AND PISCATAQUIS COUNTIES, SLIDING EASTWARD. IN ADDITION,
WE`RE STARTING TO SEE POP UP SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
HIGHLANDS AND INTERIOR DOWNEAST. THIS CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST AND DAYTTIME HEATING CONTINUES. LATEST SPC MESOSCALE ANALYSIS
SHOWS SB CAPES UP T0 1000 J/KG AND 30-45KT OF 0-6KM SHEAR. STILL
EXPECT SOME THUNDERSTORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF PRODUCING GUSTY
WINDS AND HAIL, WITH A FEW POSSIBLY REACHING SEVERE LEVELS. THE
FORECAST PRETTY MUCH HAS ALL THIS COVERED. MAIN CHANGES WITH THIS
UPDATE WERE TO ADJUST POPS TO CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND ADJUST
TEMPERATURES WITH LATEST OBSERVATIONS. NO OTHER CHANGES WERE NEEDED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...FOCUS CONTINUES TO BE ON CONVECTION TODAY.
CONFIDENCE IS BUILDING THAT SOME CELLS COULD GO SEVERE. MORE ON
THIS BELOW.

06Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD WEAK HIGH PRES RIDGE TO THE E W/SFC
FRONT MOVING TOWARD QUEBEC. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS HAD SHOWN UP
EARLIERMOVING ACROSS THE W BUT DISSIPATED. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWED AREA OF CLOUDS MOVING NE ACROSS NORTHERN NYS INTO SOUTHERN
QUEBEC. FURTHER E, MAINLY CLEAR CONDITIONS. STRONG VORTICITY MAX
CAN BE SEEN SPINNING WEST OF THE QUEBEC PROVINCE. THE ATMOSPHERE
IS POISED TO DESTABILIZE THIS MORNING W/HEATING. LATEST MODEL
SOUNDINGS(GFS/NAM/WRF) INDICATE SB/MU CAPES TO HIT 1500+ JOULES BY
EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. LIS DROP TO A RANGE OF -3
TO -6. ENOUGH MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE AVAILABLE THROUGH 700MBS W/AN
INVERTED V IN THE LLVLS. 0-6KM SHEAR TO BE 30+ KTS W/GOOD COLD
POOL ALOFT. THEREFORE, AS THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED VORTICITY MAX
MOVES INTO THE REGION, SHOWERS AND SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INITIATE BY EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL AREAS
W/DECENT LAPSE RATES OF 6.5+ C/KM IN THE MID LEVELS. HAIL IS A
GOOD BET W/THE DRY AIR ALOFT AND COLD POOL. PLUS HAIL CAPE WAS
SHOWN TO BE AROUND 400+ JOULES WHICH IS IN THE RANGE FOR HAIL.

WIND GUSTS ARE BE A CONCERN DUE TO THE SHEAR AND A DECENT
JETSTREAK AT THE 700MBS FORECAST TO SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION. STORM
STRUCTURE WILL BE MULTICELLULAR W/A FEW CELLS REACHING NEAR SUPER
CELLS LIMITS IF STORMS CAN STAY ORGANIZED. OTHER PARAMETERS TO
SUPPORT POSSIBLE SEVERE TSTMS ARE TOTAL TOTALS HIT 50+ AND THE
SHOWALTER INDEX DROPS TO -2. SPC HAS KEPT THE CWA IN A MARGINAL
RISK FOR A FEW STORMS TO GO SEVERE W/LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WIND
GUSTS THE MAIN THREAT. THE FIRST SET OF ACTION WILL MOVE ACROSS
NORTH-CENTRAL AREAS BY EARLY AFTERNOON W/A 2ND AREA ACROSS THE
INTERIOR DOWNEAST INTO WASHINGTON COUNTY. PER COLLABORATION
W/GYX, KEPT ENHANCED WORDING FOR HAIL AND WIND GUSTS EXCEPT FOR
THE COAST AS A SEA BREEZE SETS UP BY EARLY AFTERNOON SHUTTING DOWN
THE STRONG CONVECTIVE THREAT. THIS SEA BREEZE COULD BE A PLAYER IN
STRENGTHENING CONVECTION AS IT COULD INTERACT W/CELLS MOVING
ACROSS THE INTERIOR DOWNEAST. THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL
BE UPDATED THIS MORNING TO REFLECT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL.

FOR TONIGHT, ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO WIND DOWN AND SHIFT E IN THE
EVENING AS THE FRONT AND UPPER SUPPORT MOVE INTO NEW BRUNSWICK.
PARTIAL CLEARING AND COOLER LATER IN THE EVENING. THIS COULD
ALLOW FOR FOG FORMATION ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT RECEIVED
RAINFALL. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE TOWARD THE WESTERN AREAS BY
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT DISTURBANCE
REFERENCED IN THE SHORT TERM SECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD A 500 MB LOW WILL BE SITUATED NEAR HUDSON
BAY. THIS WILL KEEP A WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION ON
SUNDAY. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION ON
SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS,
MAINLY TO NORTHERN AREAS DURING SUNDAY, OTHERWISE EXPECT PARTLY
TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S NORTH AND UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80
DOWNEAST, BUT IT WILL BE COOLER ALONG THE COAST.

SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED. LOWS
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60.

THE UPPER LOW OVER HUDSON BAY AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL
BEGIN TO DROP INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION WITH NORTHERN MAINE
STILL ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER RIDGE. AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE 80S ACROSS MOST
OF THE REGION AWAY FROM THE COAST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL START TO AFFECT WESTERN MAINE BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD
FRONT WILL BE ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER WELL INTO THE NIGHT ACROSS EASTERN AREAS
AS THE FRONT SLOWLY MOVES EAST. MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE MILD WITH
LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE COAST TUESDAY MORNING BUT A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA DURING TUESDAY
AFTERNOON WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FROM SHOWERS OR AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM.

THE SECONDARY FRONT WILL MOVE EAST TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A COOLER
AND DRIER AIR MASS TO FOLLOW FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL TROF ACROSS THE AREA.

THE UPPER TROF WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR DRY WEATHER WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. WE COULD ONCE AGAIN SEE SOME SHOWERS
RETURN BY NEXT WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MOST OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: BASICALLY VFR INTO TONIGHT OUTSIDE SOME SHRA AND TSRA
WHICH COULD BRING BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR AND PERHAPS IFR. HAIL AND
STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AT THE
TERMINALS W/THE EXCEPTION OF KBHB. VSBY OVERNIGHT COULD DROP TO
MVFR DUE TO EARLIER ACTIVITY AND COOLER BLYR.

SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREDOMINATE THROUGH THE PERIOD
OUTSIDE OF LCL MVFR IN ANY SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SOUTH SWELL LOOKS BE SETTING UP W/A PERIOD OF 8
SECONDS. THE SWELL IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT W/WAVE
HEIGHTS BUILDING TO A RANGE OF 2-4 FT. THE OUTER ZONES COULD SEE
3-5 IN SWELLS W/PERIODS OF 9-10 SECONDS. WINDS WILL PICK UP SOME
THIS EVENING W/THE FROPA TO 10-15 KTS AND AGAIN THIS WILL BE
MAINLY THE CASE FOR THE OUTER ZONES.

SHORT TERM: WIND/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HASTINGS/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...HASTINGS/HEWITT/DUDA
MARINE...HASTINGS/HEWITT/DUDA




000
FXUS61 KCAR 011426
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1026 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
THIS WEEKEND BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1025 AM UPDATE...THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK. STARTING TO SEE SOME
CONVECTION POP UP ON RADAR, ALONG WITH LIGHTNING STRIKES OVER FAR
EASTERN QUEBEC. THEREFORE THE ONLY CHANGE WAS TO ADD THUNDER TO
THIS MORNING`S FORECAST. OTHERWISE, CHANGES WERE MINOR.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...FOCUS CONTINUES TO BE ON CONVECTION TODAY.
CONFIDENCE IS BUILDING THAT SOME CELLS COULD GO SEVERE. MORE ON
THIS BELOW.

06Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD WEAK HIGH PRES RIDGE TO THE E W/SFC
FRONT MOVING TOWARD QUEBEC. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS HAD SHOWN UP
EARLIERMOVING ACROSS THE W BUT DISSIPATED. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWED AREA OF CLOUDS MOVING NE ACROSS NORTHERN NYS INTO SOUTHERN
QUEBEC. FURTHER E, MAINLY CLEAR CONDITIONS. STRONG VORTICITY MAX
CAN BE SEEN SPINNING WEST OF THE QUEBEC PROVINCE. THE ATMOSPHERE
IS POISED TO DESTABILIZE THIS MORNING W/HEATING. LATEST MODEL
SOUNDINGS(GFS/NAM/WRF) INDICATE SB/MU CAPES TO HIT 1500+ JOULES BY
EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. LIS DROP TO A RANGE OF -3
TO -6. ENOUGH MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE AVAILABLE THROUGH 700MBS W/AN
INVERTED V IN THE LLVLS. 0-6KM SHEAR TO BE 30+ KTS W/GOOD COLD
POOL ALOFT. THEREFORE, AS THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED VORTICITY MAX
MOVES INTO THE REGION, SHOWERS AND SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INITIATE BY EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL AREAS
W/DECENT LAPSE RATES OF 6.5+ C/KM IN THE MID LEVELS. HAIL IS A
GOOD BET W/THE DRY AIR ALOFT AND COLD POOL. PLUS HAIL CAPE WAS
SHOWN TO BE AROUND 400+ JOULES WHICH IS IN THE RANGE FOR HAIL.

WIND GUSTS ARE BE A CONCERN DUE TO THE SHEAR AND A DECENT
JETSTREAK AT THE 700MBS FORECAST TO SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION. STORM
STRUCTURE WILL BE MULTICELLULAR W/A FEW CELLS REACHING NEAR SUPER
CELLS LIMITS IF STORMS CAN STAY ORGANIZED. OTHER PARAMETERS TO
SUPPORT POSSIBLE SEVERE TSTMS ARE TOTAL TOTALS HIT 50+ AND THE
SHOWALTER INDEX DROPS TO -2. SPC HAS KEPT THE CWA IN A MARGINAL
RISK FOR A FEW STORMS TO GO SEVERE W/LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WIND
GUSTS THE MAIN THREAT. THE FIRST SET OF ACTION WILL MOVE ACROSS
NORTH-CENTRAL AREAS BY EARLY AFTERNOON W/A 2ND AREA ACROSS THE
INTERIOR DOWNEAST INTO WASHINGTON COUNTY. PER COLLABORATION
W/GYX, KEPT ENHANCED WORDING FOR HAIL AND WIND GUSTS EXCEPT FOR
THE COAST AS A SEA BREEZE SETS UP BY EARLY AFTERNOON SHUTTING DOWN
THE STRONG CONVECTIVE THREAT. THIS SEA BREEZE COULD BE A PLAYER IN
STRENGTHENING CONVECTION AS IT COULD INTERACT W/CELLS MOVING
ACROSS THE INTERIOR DOWNEAST. THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL
BE UPDATED THIS MORNING TO REFLECT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL.

FOR TONIGHT, ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO WIND DOWN AND SHIFT E IN THE
EVENING AS THE FRONT AND UPPER SUPPORT MOVE INTO NEW BRUNSWICK.
PARTIAL CLEARING AND COOLER LATER IN THE EVENING. THIS COULD
ALLOW FOR FOG FORMATION ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT RECEIVED
RAINFALL. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE TOWARD THE WESTERN AREAS BY
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT DISTURBANCE
REFERENCED IN THE SHORT TERM SECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD A 500 MB LOW WILL BE SITUATED NEAR HUDSON
BAY. THIS WILL KEEP A WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION ON
SUNDAY. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION ON
SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS,
MAINLY TO NORTHERN AREAS DURING SUNDAY, OTHERWISE EXPECT PARTLY
TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S NORTH AND UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80
DOWNEAST, BUT IT WILL BE COOLER ALONG THE COAST.

SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED. LOWS
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60.

THE UPPER LOW OVER HUDSON BAY AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL
BEGIN TO DROP INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION WITH NORTHERN MAINE
STILL ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER RIDGE. AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE 80S ACROSS MOST
OF THE REGION AWAY FROM THE COAST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL START TO AFFECT WESTERN MAINE BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD
FRONT WILL BE ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER WELL INTO THE NIGHT ACROSS EASTERN AREAS
AS THE FRONT SLOWLY MOVES EAST. MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE MILD WITH
LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE COAST TUESDAY MORNING BUT A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA DURING TUESDAY
AFTERNOON WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FROM SHOWERS OR AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM.

THE SECONDARY FRONT WILL MOVE EAST TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A COOLER
AND DRIER AIR MASS TO FOLLOW FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL TROF ACROSS THE AREA.

THE UPPER TROF WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR DRY WEATHER WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. WE COULD ONCE AGAIN SEE SOME SHOWERS
RETURN BY NEXT WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MOST OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: BASICALLY VFR INTO TONIGHT OUTSIDE SOME SHRA AND TSRA
WHICH COULD BRING BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR AND PERHAPS IFR. HAIL AND
STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AT THE
TERMINALS W/THE EXCEPTION OF KBHB. VSBY OVERNIGHT COULD DROP TO
MVFR DUE TO EARLIER ACTIVITY AND COOLER BLYR.

SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREDOMINATE THROUGH THE PERIOD
OUTSIDE OF LCL MVFR IN ANY SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SOUTH SWELL LOOKS BE SETTING UP W/A PERIOD OF 8
SECONDS. THE SWELL IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT W/WAVE
HEIGHTS BUILDING TO A RANGE OF 2-4 FT. THE OUTER ZONES COULD SEE
3-5 IN SWELLS W/PERIODS OF 9-10 SECONDS. WINDS WILL PICK UP SOME
THIS EVENING W/THE FROPA TO 10-15 KTS AND AGAIN THIS WILL BE
MAINLY THE CASE FOR THE OUTER ZONES.

SHORT TERM: WIND/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HASTINGS/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...HASTINGS/HEWITT/DUDA
MARINE...HASTINGS/HEWITT/DUDA



000
FXUS61 KCAR 011426
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1026 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
THIS WEEKEND BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1025 AM UPDATE...THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK. STARTING TO SEE SOME
CONVECTION POP UP ON RADAR, ALONG WITH LIGHTNING STRIKES OVER FAR
EASTERN QUEBEC. THEREFORE THE ONLY CHANGE WAS TO ADD THUNDER TO
THIS MORNING`S FORECAST. OTHERWISE, CHANGES WERE MINOR.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...FOCUS CONTINUES TO BE ON CONVECTION TODAY.
CONFIDENCE IS BUILDING THAT SOME CELLS COULD GO SEVERE. MORE ON
THIS BELOW.

06Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD WEAK HIGH PRES RIDGE TO THE E W/SFC
FRONT MOVING TOWARD QUEBEC. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS HAD SHOWN UP
EARLIERMOVING ACROSS THE W BUT DISSIPATED. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWED AREA OF CLOUDS MOVING NE ACROSS NORTHERN NYS INTO SOUTHERN
QUEBEC. FURTHER E, MAINLY CLEAR CONDITIONS. STRONG VORTICITY MAX
CAN BE SEEN SPINNING WEST OF THE QUEBEC PROVINCE. THE ATMOSPHERE
IS POISED TO DESTABILIZE THIS MORNING W/HEATING. LATEST MODEL
SOUNDINGS(GFS/NAM/WRF) INDICATE SB/MU CAPES TO HIT 1500+ JOULES BY
EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. LIS DROP TO A RANGE OF -3
TO -6. ENOUGH MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE AVAILABLE THROUGH 700MBS W/AN
INVERTED V IN THE LLVLS. 0-6KM SHEAR TO BE 30+ KTS W/GOOD COLD
POOL ALOFT. THEREFORE, AS THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED VORTICITY MAX
MOVES INTO THE REGION, SHOWERS AND SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INITIATE BY EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL AREAS
W/DECENT LAPSE RATES OF 6.5+ C/KM IN THE MID LEVELS. HAIL IS A
GOOD BET W/THE DRY AIR ALOFT AND COLD POOL. PLUS HAIL CAPE WAS
SHOWN TO BE AROUND 400+ JOULES WHICH IS IN THE RANGE FOR HAIL.

WIND GUSTS ARE BE A CONCERN DUE TO THE SHEAR AND A DECENT
JETSTREAK AT THE 700MBS FORECAST TO SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION. STORM
STRUCTURE WILL BE MULTICELLULAR W/A FEW CELLS REACHING NEAR SUPER
CELLS LIMITS IF STORMS CAN STAY ORGANIZED. OTHER PARAMETERS TO
SUPPORT POSSIBLE SEVERE TSTMS ARE TOTAL TOTALS HIT 50+ AND THE
SHOWALTER INDEX DROPS TO -2. SPC HAS KEPT THE CWA IN A MARGINAL
RISK FOR A FEW STORMS TO GO SEVERE W/LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WIND
GUSTS THE MAIN THREAT. THE FIRST SET OF ACTION WILL MOVE ACROSS
NORTH-CENTRAL AREAS BY EARLY AFTERNOON W/A 2ND AREA ACROSS THE
INTERIOR DOWNEAST INTO WASHINGTON COUNTY. PER COLLABORATION
W/GYX, KEPT ENHANCED WORDING FOR HAIL AND WIND GUSTS EXCEPT FOR
THE COAST AS A SEA BREEZE SETS UP BY EARLY AFTERNOON SHUTTING DOWN
THE STRONG CONVECTIVE THREAT. THIS SEA BREEZE COULD BE A PLAYER IN
STRENGTHENING CONVECTION AS IT COULD INTERACT W/CELLS MOVING
ACROSS THE INTERIOR DOWNEAST. THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL
BE UPDATED THIS MORNING TO REFLECT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL.

FOR TONIGHT, ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO WIND DOWN AND SHIFT E IN THE
EVENING AS THE FRONT AND UPPER SUPPORT MOVE INTO NEW BRUNSWICK.
PARTIAL CLEARING AND COOLER LATER IN THE EVENING. THIS COULD
ALLOW FOR FOG FORMATION ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT RECEIVED
RAINFALL. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE TOWARD THE WESTERN AREAS BY
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT DISTURBANCE
REFERENCED IN THE SHORT TERM SECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD A 500 MB LOW WILL BE SITUATED NEAR HUDSON
BAY. THIS WILL KEEP A WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION ON
SUNDAY. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION ON
SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS,
MAINLY TO NORTHERN AREAS DURING SUNDAY, OTHERWISE EXPECT PARTLY
TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S NORTH AND UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80
DOWNEAST, BUT IT WILL BE COOLER ALONG THE COAST.

SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED. LOWS
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60.

THE UPPER LOW OVER HUDSON BAY AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL
BEGIN TO DROP INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION WITH NORTHERN MAINE
STILL ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER RIDGE. AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE 80S ACROSS MOST
OF THE REGION AWAY FROM THE COAST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL START TO AFFECT WESTERN MAINE BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD
FRONT WILL BE ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER WELL INTO THE NIGHT ACROSS EASTERN AREAS
AS THE FRONT SLOWLY MOVES EAST. MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE MILD WITH
LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE COAST TUESDAY MORNING BUT A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA DURING TUESDAY
AFTERNOON WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FROM SHOWERS OR AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM.

THE SECONDARY FRONT WILL MOVE EAST TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A COOLER
AND DRIER AIR MASS TO FOLLOW FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL TROF ACROSS THE AREA.

THE UPPER TROF WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR DRY WEATHER WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. WE COULD ONCE AGAIN SEE SOME SHOWERS
RETURN BY NEXT WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MOST OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: BASICALLY VFR INTO TONIGHT OUTSIDE SOME SHRA AND TSRA
WHICH COULD BRING BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR AND PERHAPS IFR. HAIL AND
STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AT THE
TERMINALS W/THE EXCEPTION OF KBHB. VSBY OVERNIGHT COULD DROP TO
MVFR DUE TO EARLIER ACTIVITY AND COOLER BLYR.

SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREDOMINATE THROUGH THE PERIOD
OUTSIDE OF LCL MVFR IN ANY SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SOUTH SWELL LOOKS BE SETTING UP W/A PERIOD OF 8
SECONDS. THE SWELL IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT W/WAVE
HEIGHTS BUILDING TO A RANGE OF 2-4 FT. THE OUTER ZONES COULD SEE
3-5 IN SWELLS W/PERIODS OF 9-10 SECONDS. WINDS WILL PICK UP SOME
THIS EVENING W/THE FROPA TO 10-15 KTS AND AGAIN THIS WILL BE
MAINLY THE CASE FOR THE OUTER ZONES.

SHORT TERM: WIND/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HASTINGS/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...HASTINGS/HEWITT/DUDA
MARINE...HASTINGS/HEWITT/DUDA



000
FXUS61 KCAR 011426
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1026 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
THIS WEEKEND BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1025 AM UPDATE...THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK. STARTING TO SEE SOME
CONVECTION POP UP ON RADAR, ALONG WITH LIGHTNING STRIKES OVER FAR
EASTERN QUEBEC. THEREFORE THE ONLY CHANGE WAS TO ADD THUNDER TO
THIS MORNING`S FORECAST. OTHERWISE, CHANGES WERE MINOR.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...FOCUS CONTINUES TO BE ON CONVECTION TODAY.
CONFIDENCE IS BUILDING THAT SOME CELLS COULD GO SEVERE. MORE ON
THIS BELOW.

06Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD WEAK HIGH PRES RIDGE TO THE E W/SFC
FRONT MOVING TOWARD QUEBEC. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS HAD SHOWN UP
EARLIERMOVING ACROSS THE W BUT DISSIPATED. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWED AREA OF CLOUDS MOVING NE ACROSS NORTHERN NYS INTO SOUTHERN
QUEBEC. FURTHER E, MAINLY CLEAR CONDITIONS. STRONG VORTICITY MAX
CAN BE SEEN SPINNING WEST OF THE QUEBEC PROVINCE. THE ATMOSPHERE
IS POISED TO DESTABILIZE THIS MORNING W/HEATING. LATEST MODEL
SOUNDINGS(GFS/NAM/WRF) INDICATE SB/MU CAPES TO HIT 1500+ JOULES BY
EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. LIS DROP TO A RANGE OF -3
TO -6. ENOUGH MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE AVAILABLE THROUGH 700MBS W/AN
INVERTED V IN THE LLVLS. 0-6KM SHEAR TO BE 30+ KTS W/GOOD COLD
POOL ALOFT. THEREFORE, AS THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED VORTICITY MAX
MOVES INTO THE REGION, SHOWERS AND SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INITIATE BY EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL AREAS
W/DECENT LAPSE RATES OF 6.5+ C/KM IN THE MID LEVELS. HAIL IS A
GOOD BET W/THE DRY AIR ALOFT AND COLD POOL. PLUS HAIL CAPE WAS
SHOWN TO BE AROUND 400+ JOULES WHICH IS IN THE RANGE FOR HAIL.

WIND GUSTS ARE BE A CONCERN DUE TO THE SHEAR AND A DECENT
JETSTREAK AT THE 700MBS FORECAST TO SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION. STORM
STRUCTURE WILL BE MULTICELLULAR W/A FEW CELLS REACHING NEAR SUPER
CELLS LIMITS IF STORMS CAN STAY ORGANIZED. OTHER PARAMETERS TO
SUPPORT POSSIBLE SEVERE TSTMS ARE TOTAL TOTALS HIT 50+ AND THE
SHOWALTER INDEX DROPS TO -2. SPC HAS KEPT THE CWA IN A MARGINAL
RISK FOR A FEW STORMS TO GO SEVERE W/LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WIND
GUSTS THE MAIN THREAT. THE FIRST SET OF ACTION WILL MOVE ACROSS
NORTH-CENTRAL AREAS BY EARLY AFTERNOON W/A 2ND AREA ACROSS THE
INTERIOR DOWNEAST INTO WASHINGTON COUNTY. PER COLLABORATION
W/GYX, KEPT ENHANCED WORDING FOR HAIL AND WIND GUSTS EXCEPT FOR
THE COAST AS A SEA BREEZE SETS UP BY EARLY AFTERNOON SHUTTING DOWN
THE STRONG CONVECTIVE THREAT. THIS SEA BREEZE COULD BE A PLAYER IN
STRENGTHENING CONVECTION AS IT COULD INTERACT W/CELLS MOVING
ACROSS THE INTERIOR DOWNEAST. THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL
BE UPDATED THIS MORNING TO REFLECT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL.

FOR TONIGHT, ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO WIND DOWN AND SHIFT E IN THE
EVENING AS THE FRONT AND UPPER SUPPORT MOVE INTO NEW BRUNSWICK.
PARTIAL CLEARING AND COOLER LATER IN THE EVENING. THIS COULD
ALLOW FOR FOG FORMATION ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT RECEIVED
RAINFALL. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE TOWARD THE WESTERN AREAS BY
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT DISTURBANCE
REFERENCED IN THE SHORT TERM SECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD A 500 MB LOW WILL BE SITUATED NEAR HUDSON
BAY. THIS WILL KEEP A WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION ON
SUNDAY. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION ON
SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS,
MAINLY TO NORTHERN AREAS DURING SUNDAY, OTHERWISE EXPECT PARTLY
TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S NORTH AND UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80
DOWNEAST, BUT IT WILL BE COOLER ALONG THE COAST.

SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED. LOWS
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60.

THE UPPER LOW OVER HUDSON BAY AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL
BEGIN TO DROP INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION WITH NORTHERN MAINE
STILL ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER RIDGE. AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE 80S ACROSS MOST
OF THE REGION AWAY FROM THE COAST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL START TO AFFECT WESTERN MAINE BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD
FRONT WILL BE ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER WELL INTO THE NIGHT ACROSS EASTERN AREAS
AS THE FRONT SLOWLY MOVES EAST. MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE MILD WITH
LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE COAST TUESDAY MORNING BUT A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA DURING TUESDAY
AFTERNOON WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FROM SHOWERS OR AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM.

THE SECONDARY FRONT WILL MOVE EAST TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A COOLER
AND DRIER AIR MASS TO FOLLOW FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL TROF ACROSS THE AREA.

THE UPPER TROF WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR DRY WEATHER WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. WE COULD ONCE AGAIN SEE SOME SHOWERS
RETURN BY NEXT WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MOST OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: BASICALLY VFR INTO TONIGHT OUTSIDE SOME SHRA AND TSRA
WHICH COULD BRING BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR AND PERHAPS IFR. HAIL AND
STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AT THE
TERMINALS W/THE EXCEPTION OF KBHB. VSBY OVERNIGHT COULD DROP TO
MVFR DUE TO EARLIER ACTIVITY AND COOLER BLYR.

SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREDOMINATE THROUGH THE PERIOD
OUTSIDE OF LCL MVFR IN ANY SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SOUTH SWELL LOOKS BE SETTING UP W/A PERIOD OF 8
SECONDS. THE SWELL IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT W/WAVE
HEIGHTS BUILDING TO A RANGE OF 2-4 FT. THE OUTER ZONES COULD SEE
3-5 IN SWELLS W/PERIODS OF 9-10 SECONDS. WINDS WILL PICK UP SOME
THIS EVENING W/THE FROPA TO 10-15 KTS AND AGAIN THIS WILL BE
MAINLY THE CASE FOR THE OUTER ZONES.

SHORT TERM: WIND/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HASTINGS/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...HASTINGS/HEWITT/DUDA
MARINE...HASTINGS/HEWITT/DUDA




000
FXUS61 KCAR 011426
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1026 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
THIS WEEKEND BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1025 AM UPDATE...THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK. STARTING TO SEE SOME
CONVECTION POP UP ON RADAR, ALONG WITH LIGHTNING STRIKES OVER FAR
EASTERN QUEBEC. THEREFORE THE ONLY CHANGE WAS TO ADD THUNDER TO
THIS MORNING`S FORECAST. OTHERWISE, CHANGES WERE MINOR.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...FOCUS CONTINUES TO BE ON CONVECTION TODAY.
CONFIDENCE IS BUILDING THAT SOME CELLS COULD GO SEVERE. MORE ON
THIS BELOW.

06Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD WEAK HIGH PRES RIDGE TO THE E W/SFC
FRONT MOVING TOWARD QUEBEC. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS HAD SHOWN UP
EARLIERMOVING ACROSS THE W BUT DISSIPATED. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWED AREA OF CLOUDS MOVING NE ACROSS NORTHERN NYS INTO SOUTHERN
QUEBEC. FURTHER E, MAINLY CLEAR CONDITIONS. STRONG VORTICITY MAX
CAN BE SEEN SPINNING WEST OF THE QUEBEC PROVINCE. THE ATMOSPHERE
IS POISED TO DESTABILIZE THIS MORNING W/HEATING. LATEST MODEL
SOUNDINGS(GFS/NAM/WRF) INDICATE SB/MU CAPES TO HIT 1500+ JOULES BY
EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. LIS DROP TO A RANGE OF -3
TO -6. ENOUGH MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE AVAILABLE THROUGH 700MBS W/AN
INVERTED V IN THE LLVLS. 0-6KM SHEAR TO BE 30+ KTS W/GOOD COLD
POOL ALOFT. THEREFORE, AS THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED VORTICITY MAX
MOVES INTO THE REGION, SHOWERS AND SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INITIATE BY EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL AREAS
W/DECENT LAPSE RATES OF 6.5+ C/KM IN THE MID LEVELS. HAIL IS A
GOOD BET W/THE DRY AIR ALOFT AND COLD POOL. PLUS HAIL CAPE WAS
SHOWN TO BE AROUND 400+ JOULES WHICH IS IN THE RANGE FOR HAIL.

WIND GUSTS ARE BE A CONCERN DUE TO THE SHEAR AND A DECENT
JETSTREAK AT THE 700MBS FORECAST TO SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION. STORM
STRUCTURE WILL BE MULTICELLULAR W/A FEW CELLS REACHING NEAR SUPER
CELLS LIMITS IF STORMS CAN STAY ORGANIZED. OTHER PARAMETERS TO
SUPPORT POSSIBLE SEVERE TSTMS ARE TOTAL TOTALS HIT 50+ AND THE
SHOWALTER INDEX DROPS TO -2. SPC HAS KEPT THE CWA IN A MARGINAL
RISK FOR A FEW STORMS TO GO SEVERE W/LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WIND
GUSTS THE MAIN THREAT. THE FIRST SET OF ACTION WILL MOVE ACROSS
NORTH-CENTRAL AREAS BY EARLY AFTERNOON W/A 2ND AREA ACROSS THE
INTERIOR DOWNEAST INTO WASHINGTON COUNTY. PER COLLABORATION
W/GYX, KEPT ENHANCED WORDING FOR HAIL AND WIND GUSTS EXCEPT FOR
THE COAST AS A SEA BREEZE SETS UP BY EARLY AFTERNOON SHUTTING DOWN
THE STRONG CONVECTIVE THREAT. THIS SEA BREEZE COULD BE A PLAYER IN
STRENGTHENING CONVECTION AS IT COULD INTERACT W/CELLS MOVING
ACROSS THE INTERIOR DOWNEAST. THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL
BE UPDATED THIS MORNING TO REFLECT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL.

FOR TONIGHT, ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO WIND DOWN AND SHIFT E IN THE
EVENING AS THE FRONT AND UPPER SUPPORT MOVE INTO NEW BRUNSWICK.
PARTIAL CLEARING AND COOLER LATER IN THE EVENING. THIS COULD
ALLOW FOR FOG FORMATION ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT RECEIVED
RAINFALL. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE TOWARD THE WESTERN AREAS BY
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT DISTURBANCE
REFERENCED IN THE SHORT TERM SECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD A 500 MB LOW WILL BE SITUATED NEAR HUDSON
BAY. THIS WILL KEEP A WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION ON
SUNDAY. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION ON
SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS,
MAINLY TO NORTHERN AREAS DURING SUNDAY, OTHERWISE EXPECT PARTLY
TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S NORTH AND UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80
DOWNEAST, BUT IT WILL BE COOLER ALONG THE COAST.

SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED. LOWS
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60.

THE UPPER LOW OVER HUDSON BAY AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL
BEGIN TO DROP INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION WITH NORTHERN MAINE
STILL ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER RIDGE. AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE 80S ACROSS MOST
OF THE REGION AWAY FROM THE COAST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL START TO AFFECT WESTERN MAINE BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD
FRONT WILL BE ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER WELL INTO THE NIGHT ACROSS EASTERN AREAS
AS THE FRONT SLOWLY MOVES EAST. MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE MILD WITH
LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE COAST TUESDAY MORNING BUT A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA DURING TUESDAY
AFTERNOON WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FROM SHOWERS OR AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM.

THE SECONDARY FRONT WILL MOVE EAST TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A COOLER
AND DRIER AIR MASS TO FOLLOW FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL TROF ACROSS THE AREA.

THE UPPER TROF WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR DRY WEATHER WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. WE COULD ONCE AGAIN SEE SOME SHOWERS
RETURN BY NEXT WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MOST OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: BASICALLY VFR INTO TONIGHT OUTSIDE SOME SHRA AND TSRA
WHICH COULD BRING BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR AND PERHAPS IFR. HAIL AND
STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AT THE
TERMINALS W/THE EXCEPTION OF KBHB. VSBY OVERNIGHT COULD DROP TO
MVFR DUE TO EARLIER ACTIVITY AND COOLER BLYR.

SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREDOMINATE THROUGH THE PERIOD
OUTSIDE OF LCL MVFR IN ANY SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SOUTH SWELL LOOKS BE SETTING UP W/A PERIOD OF 8
SECONDS. THE SWELL IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT W/WAVE
HEIGHTS BUILDING TO A RANGE OF 2-4 FT. THE OUTER ZONES COULD SEE
3-5 IN SWELLS W/PERIODS OF 9-10 SECONDS. WINDS WILL PICK UP SOME
THIS EVENING W/THE FROPA TO 10-15 KTS AND AGAIN THIS WILL BE
MAINLY THE CASE FOR THE OUTER ZONES.

SHORT TERM: WIND/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HASTINGS/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...HASTINGS/HEWITT/DUDA
MARINE...HASTINGS/HEWITT/DUDA




000
FXUS61 KGYX 011300
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
900 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY...BRINGING ANOTHER THREAT
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY DROP OFF
A LITTLE MORE BEHIND THIS FRONT. SUNDAY SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. WEAK LOW PRESSURE
ALOFT...SITUATED OVER QUEBEC...WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND SHOWERS OR
STORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY. THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD
WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED WITH A FEW ROUNDS OF SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
553AM UPDATE: WILL DIMINISH EARLY MORNING POPS SOME BASED ON
WEAKENING RADAR TREND SEEN WITH INITIAL ECHOES AS THEY ATTEMPT TO
WORK THROUGH NORTHERN VERMONT AND OUTRUN ANY MEANINGFUL MUCAPE
FROM RECENT RAP ANALYSES. EXPECT THAT WE/LL NEED A LITTLE MORNING
SUN AND RESULTANT INSTABILITY TO GET ACTIVITY TO INCREASE IN
COVERAGE/INTENSITY. HAVE ALSO LOWERED TEMPS SOME AND INCLUDED SOME
FOG THROUGH 12Z BASED ON EARLY MORNING OBSERVATIONS SHOWING
LOCALLY DENSE FOG IN THE NORTHERN VALLEYS.

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON FOR NORTHERN NH AND NORTHERN MAINE.

CURRENT PATTERN: CYCLONIC FLOW THROUGH THE COLUMN HAS FULLY
ENVELOPED THE REGION AS OF THIS WRITING WITH EARLY MORNING WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING VERTICALLY STACKED LOW CENTERED OVER HUDSON
BAY. A PARADE OF LOCAL VORTICITY MAXIMA CAN ALSO BE SEEN ROTATING
AROUND THIS FEATURE...WITH A BAND OF ENHANCED MOISTURE STRETCHING
FROM CENTRAL ONTARIO SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES...AND JUST STARTING TO SCRAPE NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. A
SHORTWAVE IS COLLOCATED WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS
MOISTURE...WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT SPARKING A FEW SHOWERS /AND
EMBEDDED THUNDER/ ACROSS NEW YORK INTO FAR WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.
THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE NORTH OF NEW ENGLAND WILL CONTINUE TO RIDE
NORTH AND EAST...MAKING WAY FOR ANOTHER WAVE...NOW OVER SOUTHERN
ONTARIO...TO PULL EAST AND BE THE FOCUS FOR OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER
TODAY. FORECAST CHALLENGES CENTER AROUND PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL
WITH THIS FEATURE AS WELL AS THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY STRONG/SEVERE
CONVECTION.

THROUGH DAYBREAK: SHOWERS SEEN ON REGIONAL 88D MOSAIC CONTINUE TO
MAKE A RUN AT NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE.  EXPECT THAT WE/LL HAVE TO
WAIT FOR THE ACTIVITY IN NEW YORK TO MOVE INTO THE REGION FOR ANY
APPRECIABLE PRECIPITATION...WITH PERHAPS A SPRINKLE POSSIBLE OVER
COOS COUNTY NH THROUGH DAYBREAK.  OTHERWISE...JUST SOME MID LEVEL
CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOWER 50S NORTH THROUGH THE
LOWER 60 OVER SOUTHERN NH.

TODAY: ATTENTION TURNS TO UPSTREAM PV ANOMALY MENTIONED ABOVE.  THIS
FEATURE LOOKS TO SHARPEN AS IT ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH AND PUSH INTO NEW ENGLAND.  THIS FEATURE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED
BY 50KT JET AT H5 WITH A 1.5PV 85KT SPEED MAX.  MODEST HEIGHT FALLS
AND INCREASING DPVA WILL WORK IN TANDEM WITH MODEST MOISTURE
INCREASE AND GOOD LAPSE RATES THROUGH H5 /GIVEN COOL POOL ALOFT/
TO ALLOW CONVECTION CURRENTLY OVER NEW YORK TO EXPAND AS IT MOVES
THROUGH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...BEING JOINED LATER BY ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS/WEAK SURFACE FRONT.
THUS...EXPECT SHRAS TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE...WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER
BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD AS INSTABILITY GROWS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS
IMPRESSIVE...APPROACHING 50KTS IN THE 0-6KM LAYER WITH
LONG AND STRAIGHT...WEST-EAST ORIENTED HODOGRAPHS FAVORING MORE
CELLULAR STRUCTURE TO CELLS GIVEN ORTHOGONAL ORIENTATION OF THE
SHEAR TO THE FORCING FEATURE /FRONT/. INSTABILITY WILL BE
SOMEWHAT LIMITED GIVEN ONLY MODEST LLEVEL MOISTURE RECOVERY...BUT
1K J/KG MLCAPE APPEARS POSSIBLE TO ATTAIN OVER FAR NORTHERN NH /
NW MAINE CLOSER TO THE BEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.

SEVERE WEATHER THREATS:  PROFILES HAVE AN INVERTED-V LOOK TO
THEM...WHICH...WITH STRONG WINDS ALOFT SUGGEST A DAMAGING WIND
THREAT...ALTHOUGH MORE LOCALIZED GIVEN THE MORE CELLULAR NATURE TO
THE CONVECTION.  WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS 8-9KFT HIGHLIGHT A HAIL
THREAT AS WELL.  TOR THREAT VERY LOW GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED
INVERTED-V PROFILES.  OVERALL THREAT WILL BE TIED PRIMARILY TO
INSTABILITY...AND THEREFORE WILL BE GREATEST OVER FAR NORTHERN NH
AND NW MAINE...WHICH IS RIGHT IN LINE WITH THE NEW SWODY1 FROM SPC.
WILL INCLUDE ENHANCED WORDING IN THESE LOCATIONS...WITH LESS THUNDER
EMPHASIS FURTHER SOUTH. AND...WHILE THE ACTIVITY FURTHER SOUTH
WILL LIKELY NOT BE SEVERE...WILL MENTION GUSTY WINDS HERE AS WELL
GIVEN INVERTED-V NATURE TO THE PROFILES.

TEMPERATURES:  THE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER WILL SPELL A COOLER
DAY...PARTICULARLY OVER NORTHERN AREAS WHERE CONVECTION WILL BE MOST
WIDESPREAD.  HERE...HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE 70S.  DOWNSLOPE
WESTERLIES WILL PROMOTE HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S OVER SOUTHEASTERN NH
AND EXTREME SW MAINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS AND MESO MODEL
TRENDS. SHORT WAVE AND A WEAK SURFACE FRONT WILL BE DRAPED ACROSS
THE REGION DURING THE MIDDAY HOURS. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM. DEW POINTS REMAIN NEAR 60
DEGREES...SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER THAN A COUPLE DAYS AGO.  WARMEST
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE MIDDAY HOURS WILL BE OVER SOUTHEAST NEW
HAMPSHIRE AND SOUTHWEST MAINE WHERE NEARLY FULL SUNSHINE WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS.

PREV DISC...
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE.

PATTERN/IMPLICATIONS: WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF
LONGWAVE TROUGH CENTERED OVER HUDSON BAY. OUR WEATHER WILL BE AT
THE MERCY OF SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THIS FEATURE...WITH A
RELATIVE LULL LIKELY FOR TONIGHT-SUNDAY BEHIND THE STRONGER WAVE
ON SATURDAY AND PRECEDING ANOTHER STRONG WAVE ON MONDAY. DESPITE
RELATIVELY LOW HEIGHTS IN THE TROUGH...LLEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN NEAR NORMAL PROMOTING SURFACE TEMPERATURES NOT TOO FAR FROM
SEASONAL NORMS.

TONIGHT: ANY AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD VERY QUICKLY WANE
WITH PARTIAL CLEARING...ALTHOUGH WITH DEEPER MOISTURE POOL CLOSER TO
THE REGION...DO EXPECT SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS TO HANG AROUND
THROUGH THE NIGHT.  LOWS LOOK NOT ALL THAT DISSIMILAR TO TONIGHT
WITH MODEST COOLING TO THE LLEVEL AIRMASS BEHIND DEPARTING COLD
FRONT.  GIVEN AT LEAST SOME RAIN ACROSS THE REGION...AND ONLY MODEST
COOLING BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT...SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG
LOOKS TO BE A GOOD BET.

SUNDAY:  DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION AND WHILE
THERE WILL BE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SYNOPTIC FORCING FOR ASCENT...MID
LEVEL COLD POOL /T5S NEAR -15C/ AND DECENT MOISTURE ALONG SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE HUDSON BAY VORTEX WILL LIKELY ALLOW SOME AFTERNOON
SHOWERS TO SPARK OVER THE MOUNTAINS.  ACTIVITY LOOKS WEAKER AND FAR
LESS WIDESPREAD THAN ON SATURDAY...SO REALLY NOT A BAD DAY EVEN UP
NORTH.  OVER SOUTHERN NH/SOUTHWEST MAINE...EXPECT A DIURNAL INCREASE
IN CLOUDS...BUT NO PRECIPITATION.  TEMPS ALOFT WILL BE ABOUT 2C
COOLER THAN ON SATURDAY...BUT WITH LIKELY A BIT MORE SUN...SO HIGH
TEMPERATURES LOOK SIMILAR TO THE DAY PREVIOUS...PERHAPS A DEGREE/TWO
COOLER FOR SOUTHEAST NH AND SW MAINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER IN THE EXTENDED WILL BE THREAT OF STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

500MB PATTERN IS TRENDING TOWARD A MODIFIED +PNA PATTERN WITH
CLOSED LOW STARTING OUR OVER HUDSON AROUND 60N AND EVENTUALLY
SHIFT SWD INTO SRN QUEBEC BY MID WEEK BEFORE SHIFTING THE NE AND
WEAKENING AS IT RUNS INTO N ATLANTIC RIDGING. THIS WILL PULL SOME
COOLER AIR SWD BY MID TO LATE THIS WEEK...AND WILL KEEP THINGS
SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED AS IT PRODUCES CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. TOWARD NEXT
WEEKEND THE CORE OF THE JET WILL SHIFT BACK TO THE N...AND COULD
SEE THINGS START TO WARM AGAIN.

SUN NIGHT WILL START WITH BUILDING 500MB RIDGING OVER ME AN THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES WHICH WILL ALLOW FLOW TO SHIFT TO THE SW ANDTAP
INTO WARM AIR...SFC AND MID-LVL JUST TO OUR SW. AFTER AN MAINLY
CLEAR AND SEASONABLY COOL SUN NIGHT MONDAY WILL WARM UP WITH
SHRA/TSRA MOVING INTO NW ZONES IN THE AFTERNOON. AS THE 500 MB
CLOSED LOW DEEPENS TO THE WEST AND HEIGHTS FALL WILL SEE DECENT
INSTABILITY DEVELOP ALONG WITH INCREASED FLOW ALOFT. NAM IS
SUGGESTING BORDERLINE EML MOVING IN OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN BY LATE
MON AFT INTO MON EVE...WHICH WOULD AID IN THE FORMATION OF SEVER
STORMS. AT ANY RATE THUNDERSTORMS...WILL BE A GOOD BET AWAY FROM
THE COAST MON AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. ANOTHER WEAK WAVE SWINGS
AROUND THE CLOSED LOW ON TUE...SO ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRA AND TSRA
POSSIBLE...AS THE COOLER AIR WILL WORK IN BEHIND THIS WAVE
TUESDAY. WED THRU FRI WILL BE PARTLY SUNNY...BUT COLD AIR ALOFT
COULD PRODUCE SCT SHRA...MAYBE A TSRA EACH DAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE
MTNS.

TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT ON THE WARM SIDE MONDAY...AS HIGHS
WILL SURGE BACK INTO THE 85-90 RANGE IN MANY INLAND SPOTS...BUT
SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER ON THE COAST...AND ESPECIALLY THE
MID-COAST WHERE SW FLOW INCREASES. IT WILL BE A WARM AND MUGGY MON
NIGHT...WITH TEMPS AND HUMIDITY ON THE HIGHER SIDE TUE...BUT MORE
CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGREES. ONCE THE FRONT COMES
THRU IN THE AFTERNOON LOOK FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS TO DROP TO AROUND
NORMAL...LOW-MID 50S N...TO THE LOW 60S IN SRN NH...WITH HIGHS
RUNNING IN THE LOW 70S TO AROUND 80 THRU THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION TODAY WITH QUIETER
CONDITIONS WORKING BACK INTO THE REGION TONIGHT.

A BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS IS WEAKENING AS IT ARRIVES OVER NH AS OF
THIS WRITING.  OUTSIDE OF SOME THICKENING MID CLOUDINESS...EXPECT A
FAIRLY QUIET MORNING.  SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR
THUNDER AT HIE/LEB/AUG/RCK WHERE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR VSBYS IS
POSSIBLE IN A HEAVY DOWNPOUR. WILL INCLUDE VCTS MENTION TO COVER THE
PERIOD MOST LIKELY TO SEE THIS SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY. THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STORMS TO BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE. ACTIVITY WILL
QUICKLY WANE THIS EVENING WITH PARTIAL CLEARING OVERNIGHT. GIVEN
SOME DAYTIME RAINFALL AND ONLY MODEST DRYING OVERNIGHT...EXPECT FOG
WILL ONCE AGAIN IMPACT LEB AND HIE AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH IFR/LIFR
VSBYS.

WINDS: LIGHT WINDS WIL BECOME WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE TO
10G18KTS FOR THE DAY TODAY BEFORE DIMINISHING TO 5KTS OR LESS FROM
THE NORTHWEST THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY...WITH A DIURNAL INCREASE IN
CUMULUS COVERAGE...AND PERHAPS A SPRINKLE/SHOWER AT HIE.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR SUN NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH VLY FOG
POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT. SCT SHRA/TSRA WILL IMPACT MOST OF THE
TERMINALS LATE MON AND MON NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...EXPECT WAVES AND SOUTHERLY WINDS TO REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT LEVELS THROUGH SUNDAY DESPITE INCREASING SOMEWHAT
DURING THE DAY TODAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.

LONG TERM...PERSISTENT SW FLOW SUNDAY AND MONDAY COULD BRING
HIGHER SWELLS TO THE COASTLINE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT....AND A
SURGE OF SW WINDS COULD APPROACH SCA LVLS FOR A SHORT PERIOD MON
NIGHT.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KGYX 011300
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
900 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY...BRINGING ANOTHER THREAT
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY DROP OFF
A LITTLE MORE BEHIND THIS FRONT. SUNDAY SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. WEAK LOW PRESSURE
ALOFT...SITUATED OVER QUEBEC...WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND SHOWERS OR
STORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY. THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD
WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED WITH A FEW ROUNDS OF SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
553AM UPDATE: WILL DIMINISH EARLY MORNING POPS SOME BASED ON
WEAKENING RADAR TREND SEEN WITH INITIAL ECHOES AS THEY ATTEMPT TO
WORK THROUGH NORTHERN VERMONT AND OUTRUN ANY MEANINGFUL MUCAPE
FROM RECENT RAP ANALYSES. EXPECT THAT WE/LL NEED A LITTLE MORNING
SUN AND RESULTANT INSTABILITY TO GET ACTIVITY TO INCREASE IN
COVERAGE/INTENSITY. HAVE ALSO LOWERED TEMPS SOME AND INCLUDED SOME
FOG THROUGH 12Z BASED ON EARLY MORNING OBSERVATIONS SHOWING
LOCALLY DENSE FOG IN THE NORTHERN VALLEYS.

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON FOR NORTHERN NH AND NORTHERN MAINE.

CURRENT PATTERN: CYCLONIC FLOW THROUGH THE COLUMN HAS FULLY
ENVELOPED THE REGION AS OF THIS WRITING WITH EARLY MORNING WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING VERTICALLY STACKED LOW CENTERED OVER HUDSON
BAY. A PARADE OF LOCAL VORTICITY MAXIMA CAN ALSO BE SEEN ROTATING
AROUND THIS FEATURE...WITH A BAND OF ENHANCED MOISTURE STRETCHING
FROM CENTRAL ONTARIO SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES...AND JUST STARTING TO SCRAPE NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. A
SHORTWAVE IS COLLOCATED WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS
MOISTURE...WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT SPARKING A FEW SHOWERS /AND
EMBEDDED THUNDER/ ACROSS NEW YORK INTO FAR WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.
THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE NORTH OF NEW ENGLAND WILL CONTINUE TO RIDE
NORTH AND EAST...MAKING WAY FOR ANOTHER WAVE...NOW OVER SOUTHERN
ONTARIO...TO PULL EAST AND BE THE FOCUS FOR OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER
TODAY. FORECAST CHALLENGES CENTER AROUND PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL
WITH THIS FEATURE AS WELL AS THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY STRONG/SEVERE
CONVECTION.

THROUGH DAYBREAK: SHOWERS SEEN ON REGIONAL 88D MOSAIC CONTINUE TO
MAKE A RUN AT NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE.  EXPECT THAT WE/LL HAVE TO
WAIT FOR THE ACTIVITY IN NEW YORK TO MOVE INTO THE REGION FOR ANY
APPRECIABLE PRECIPITATION...WITH PERHAPS A SPRINKLE POSSIBLE OVER
COOS COUNTY NH THROUGH DAYBREAK.  OTHERWISE...JUST SOME MID LEVEL
CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOWER 50S NORTH THROUGH THE
LOWER 60 OVER SOUTHERN NH.

TODAY: ATTENTION TURNS TO UPSTREAM PV ANOMALY MENTIONED ABOVE.  THIS
FEATURE LOOKS TO SHARPEN AS IT ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH AND PUSH INTO NEW ENGLAND.  THIS FEATURE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED
BY 50KT JET AT H5 WITH A 1.5PV 85KT SPEED MAX.  MODEST HEIGHT FALLS
AND INCREASING DPVA WILL WORK IN TANDEM WITH MODEST MOISTURE
INCREASE AND GOOD LAPSE RATES THROUGH H5 /GIVEN COOL POOL ALOFT/
TO ALLOW CONVECTION CURRENTLY OVER NEW YORK TO EXPAND AS IT MOVES
THROUGH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...BEING JOINED LATER BY ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS/WEAK SURFACE FRONT.
THUS...EXPECT SHRAS TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE...WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER
BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD AS INSTABILITY GROWS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS
IMPRESSIVE...APPROACHING 50KTS IN THE 0-6KM LAYER WITH
LONG AND STRAIGHT...WEST-EAST ORIENTED HODOGRAPHS FAVORING MORE
CELLULAR STRUCTURE TO CELLS GIVEN ORTHOGONAL ORIENTATION OF THE
SHEAR TO THE FORCING FEATURE /FRONT/. INSTABILITY WILL BE
SOMEWHAT LIMITED GIVEN ONLY MODEST LLEVEL MOISTURE RECOVERY...BUT
1K J/KG MLCAPE APPEARS POSSIBLE TO ATTAIN OVER FAR NORTHERN NH /
NW MAINE CLOSER TO THE BEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.

SEVERE WEATHER THREATS:  PROFILES HAVE AN INVERTED-V LOOK TO
THEM...WHICH...WITH STRONG WINDS ALOFT SUGGEST A DAMAGING WIND
THREAT...ALTHOUGH MORE LOCALIZED GIVEN THE MORE CELLULAR NATURE TO
THE CONVECTION.  WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS 8-9KFT HIGHLIGHT A HAIL
THREAT AS WELL.  TOR THREAT VERY LOW GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED
INVERTED-V PROFILES.  OVERALL THREAT WILL BE TIED PRIMARILY TO
INSTABILITY...AND THEREFORE WILL BE GREATEST OVER FAR NORTHERN NH
AND NW MAINE...WHICH IS RIGHT IN LINE WITH THE NEW SWODY1 FROM SPC.
WILL INCLUDE ENHANCED WORDING IN THESE LOCATIONS...WITH LESS THUNDER
EMPHASIS FURTHER SOUTH. AND...WHILE THE ACTIVITY FURTHER SOUTH
WILL LIKELY NOT BE SEVERE...WILL MENTION GUSTY WINDS HERE AS WELL
GIVEN INVERTED-V NATURE TO THE PROFILES.

TEMPERATURES:  THE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER WILL SPELL A COOLER
DAY...PARTICULARLY OVER NORTHERN AREAS WHERE CONVECTION WILL BE MOST
WIDESPREAD.  HERE...HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE 70S.  DOWNSLOPE
WESTERLIES WILL PROMOTE HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S OVER SOUTHEASTERN NH
AND EXTREME SW MAINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS AND MESO MODEL
TRENDS. SHORT WAVE AND A WEAK SURFACE FRONT WILL BE DRAPED ACROSS
THE REGION DURING THE MIDDAY HOURS. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM. DEW POINTS REMAIN NEAR 60
DEGREES...SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER THAN A COUPLE DAYS AGO.  WARMEST
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE MIDDAY HOURS WILL BE OVER SOUTHEAST NEW
HAMPSHIRE AND SOUTHWEST MAINE WHERE NEARLY FULL SUNSHINE WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS.

PREV DISC...
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE.

PATTERN/IMPLICATIONS: WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF
LONGWAVE TROUGH CENTERED OVER HUDSON BAY. OUR WEATHER WILL BE AT
THE MERCY OF SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THIS FEATURE...WITH A
RELATIVE LULL LIKELY FOR TONIGHT-SUNDAY BEHIND THE STRONGER WAVE
ON SATURDAY AND PRECEDING ANOTHER STRONG WAVE ON MONDAY. DESPITE
RELATIVELY LOW HEIGHTS IN THE TROUGH...LLEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN NEAR NORMAL PROMOTING SURFACE TEMPERATURES NOT TOO FAR FROM
SEASONAL NORMS.

TONIGHT: ANY AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD VERY QUICKLY WANE
WITH PARTIAL CLEARING...ALTHOUGH WITH DEEPER MOISTURE POOL CLOSER TO
THE REGION...DO EXPECT SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS TO HANG AROUND
THROUGH THE NIGHT.  LOWS LOOK NOT ALL THAT DISSIMILAR TO TONIGHT
WITH MODEST COOLING TO THE LLEVEL AIRMASS BEHIND DEPARTING COLD
FRONT.  GIVEN AT LEAST SOME RAIN ACROSS THE REGION...AND ONLY MODEST
COOLING BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT...SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG
LOOKS TO BE A GOOD BET.

SUNDAY:  DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION AND WHILE
THERE WILL BE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SYNOPTIC FORCING FOR ASCENT...MID
LEVEL COLD POOL /T5S NEAR -15C/ AND DECENT MOISTURE ALONG SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE HUDSON BAY VORTEX WILL LIKELY ALLOW SOME AFTERNOON
SHOWERS TO SPARK OVER THE MOUNTAINS.  ACTIVITY LOOKS WEAKER AND FAR
LESS WIDESPREAD THAN ON SATURDAY...SO REALLY NOT A BAD DAY EVEN UP
NORTH.  OVER SOUTHERN NH/SOUTHWEST MAINE...EXPECT A DIURNAL INCREASE
IN CLOUDS...BUT NO PRECIPITATION.  TEMPS ALOFT WILL BE ABOUT 2C
COOLER THAN ON SATURDAY...BUT WITH LIKELY A BIT MORE SUN...SO HIGH
TEMPERATURES LOOK SIMILAR TO THE DAY PREVIOUS...PERHAPS A DEGREE/TWO
COOLER FOR SOUTHEAST NH AND SW MAINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER IN THE EXTENDED WILL BE THREAT OF STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

500MB PATTERN IS TRENDING TOWARD A MODIFIED +PNA PATTERN WITH
CLOSED LOW STARTING OUR OVER HUDSON AROUND 60N AND EVENTUALLY
SHIFT SWD INTO SRN QUEBEC BY MID WEEK BEFORE SHIFTING THE NE AND
WEAKENING AS IT RUNS INTO N ATLANTIC RIDGING. THIS WILL PULL SOME
COOLER AIR SWD BY MID TO LATE THIS WEEK...AND WILL KEEP THINGS
SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED AS IT PRODUCES CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. TOWARD NEXT
WEEKEND THE CORE OF THE JET WILL SHIFT BACK TO THE N...AND COULD
SEE THINGS START TO WARM AGAIN.

SUN NIGHT WILL START WITH BUILDING 500MB RIDGING OVER ME AN THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES WHICH WILL ALLOW FLOW TO SHIFT TO THE SW ANDTAP
INTO WARM AIR...SFC AND MID-LVL JUST TO OUR SW. AFTER AN MAINLY
CLEAR AND SEASONABLY COOL SUN NIGHT MONDAY WILL WARM UP WITH
SHRA/TSRA MOVING INTO NW ZONES IN THE AFTERNOON. AS THE 500 MB
CLOSED LOW DEEPENS TO THE WEST AND HEIGHTS FALL WILL SEE DECENT
INSTABILITY DEVELOP ALONG WITH INCREASED FLOW ALOFT. NAM IS
SUGGESTING BORDERLINE EML MOVING IN OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN BY LATE
MON AFT INTO MON EVE...WHICH WOULD AID IN THE FORMATION OF SEVER
STORMS. AT ANY RATE THUNDERSTORMS...WILL BE A GOOD BET AWAY FROM
THE COAST MON AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. ANOTHER WEAK WAVE SWINGS
AROUND THE CLOSED LOW ON TUE...SO ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRA AND TSRA
POSSIBLE...AS THE COOLER AIR WILL WORK IN BEHIND THIS WAVE
TUESDAY. WED THRU FRI WILL BE PARTLY SUNNY...BUT COLD AIR ALOFT
COULD PRODUCE SCT SHRA...MAYBE A TSRA EACH DAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE
MTNS.

TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT ON THE WARM SIDE MONDAY...AS HIGHS
WILL SURGE BACK INTO THE 85-90 RANGE IN MANY INLAND SPOTS...BUT
SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER ON THE COAST...AND ESPECIALLY THE
MID-COAST WHERE SW FLOW INCREASES. IT WILL BE A WARM AND MUGGY MON
NIGHT...WITH TEMPS AND HUMIDITY ON THE HIGHER SIDE TUE...BUT MORE
CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGREES. ONCE THE FRONT COMES
THRU IN THE AFTERNOON LOOK FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS TO DROP TO AROUND
NORMAL...LOW-MID 50S N...TO THE LOW 60S IN SRN NH...WITH HIGHS
RUNNING IN THE LOW 70S TO AROUND 80 THRU THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION TODAY WITH QUIETER
CONDITIONS WORKING BACK INTO THE REGION TONIGHT.

A BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS IS WEAKENING AS IT ARRIVES OVER NH AS OF
THIS WRITING.  OUTSIDE OF SOME THICKENING MID CLOUDINESS...EXPECT A
FAIRLY QUIET MORNING.  SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR
THUNDER AT HIE/LEB/AUG/RCK WHERE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR VSBYS IS
POSSIBLE IN A HEAVY DOWNPOUR. WILL INCLUDE VCTS MENTION TO COVER THE
PERIOD MOST LIKELY TO SEE THIS SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY. THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STORMS TO BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE. ACTIVITY WILL
QUICKLY WANE THIS EVENING WITH PARTIAL CLEARING OVERNIGHT. GIVEN
SOME DAYTIME RAINFALL AND ONLY MODEST DRYING OVERNIGHT...EXPECT FOG
WILL ONCE AGAIN IMPACT LEB AND HIE AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH IFR/LIFR
VSBYS.

WINDS: LIGHT WINDS WIL BECOME WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE TO
10G18KTS FOR THE DAY TODAY BEFORE DIMINISHING TO 5KTS OR LESS FROM
THE NORTHWEST THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY...WITH A DIURNAL INCREASE IN
CUMULUS COVERAGE...AND PERHAPS A SPRINKLE/SHOWER AT HIE.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR SUN NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH VLY FOG
POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT. SCT SHRA/TSRA WILL IMPACT MOST OF THE
TERMINALS LATE MON AND MON NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...EXPECT WAVES AND SOUTHERLY WINDS TO REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT LEVELS THROUGH SUNDAY DESPITE INCREASING SOMEWHAT
DURING THE DAY TODAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.

LONG TERM...PERSISTENT SW FLOW SUNDAY AND MONDAY COULD BRING
HIGHER SWELLS TO THE COASTLINE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT....AND A
SURGE OF SW WINDS COULD APPROACH SCA LVLS FOR A SHORT PERIOD MON
NIGHT.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KCAR 011045
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
645 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
THIS WEEKEND BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
645 AM UPDATE...UPDATED THE SKY CONDITIONS TO SHOW MORE CLOUDS
MOVING INTO THE REGION PER THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY. HRLY
TEMPS WERE ADJUSTED AS WELL ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS.

FOCUS CONTINUES TO BE ON CONVECTION TODAY. CONFIDENCE IS BUILDING
THAT SOME CELLS COULD GO SEVERE. MORE ON THIS BELOW.

06Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD WEAK HIGH PRES RIDGE TO THE E W/SFC
FRONT MOVING TOWARD QUEBEC. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS HAD SHOWN UP
EARLIERMOVING ACROSS THE W BUT DISSIPATED. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWED AREA OF CLOUDS MOVING NE ACROSS NORTHERN NYS INTO SOUTHERN
QUEBEC. FURTHER E, MAINLY CLEAR CONDITIONS. STRONG VORTICITY MAX
CAN BE SEEN SPINNING WEST OF THE QUEBEC PROVINCE. THE ATMOSPHERE
IS POISED TO DESTABILIZE THIS MORNING W/HEATING. LATEST MODEL
SOUNDINGS(GFS/NAM/WRF) INDICATE SB/MU CAPES TO HIT 1500+ JOULES BY
EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. LIS DROP TO A RANGE OF -3
TO -6. ENOUGH MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE AVAILABLE THROUGH 700MBS W/AN
INVERTED V IN THE LLVLS. 0-6KM SHEAR TO BE 30+ KTS W/GOOD COLD
POOL ALOFT. THEREFORE, AS THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED VORTICITY MAX
MOVES INTO THE REGION, SHOWERS AND SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INITIATE BY EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL AREAS
W/DECENT LAPSE RATES OF 6.5+ C/KM IN THE MID LEVELS. HAIL IS A
GOOD BET W/THE DRY AIR ALOFT AND COLD POOL. PLUS HAIL CAPE WAS
SHOWN TO BE AROUND 400+ JOULES WHICH IS IN THE RANGE FOR HAIL.

WIND GUSTS ARE BE A CONCERN DUE TO THE SHEAR AND A DECENT
JETSTREAK AT THE 700MBS FORECAST TO SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION. STORM
STRUCTURE WILL BE MULTICELLULAR W/A FEW CELLS REACHING NEAR SUPER
CELLS LIMITS IF STORMS CAN STAY ORGANIZED. OTHER PARAMETERS TO
SUPPORT POSSIBLE SEVERE TSTMS ARE TOTAL TOTALS HIT 50+ AND THE
SHOWALTER INDEX DROPS TO -2. SPC HAS KEPT THE CWA IN A MARGINAL
RISK FOR A FEW STORMS TO GO SEVERE W/LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WIND
GUSTS THE MAIN THREAT. THE FIRST SET OF ACTION WILL MOVE ACROSS
NORTH-CENTRAL AREAS BY EARLY AFTERNOON W/A 2ND AREA ACROSS THE
INTERIOR DOWNEAST INTO WASHINGTON COUNTY. PER COLLABORATION
W/GYX, KEPT ENHANCED WORDING FOR HAIL AND WIND GUSTS EXCEPT FOR
THE COAST AS A SEA BREEZE SETS UP BY EARLY AFTERNOON SHUTTING DOWN
THE STRONG CONVECTIVE THREAT. THIS SEA BREEZE COULD BE A PLAYER IN
STRENGTHENING CONVECTION AS IT COULD INTERACT W/CELLS MOVING
ACROSS THE INTERIOR DOWNEAST. THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL
BE UPDATED THIS MORNING TO REFLECT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL.

FOR TONIGHT, ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO WIND DOWN AND SHIFT E IN THE
EVENING AS THE FRONT AND UPPER SUPPORT MOVE INTO NEW BRUNSWICK.
PARTIAL CLEARING AND COOLER LATER IN THE EVENING. THIS COULD
ALLOW FOR FOG FORMATION ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT RECEIVED
RAINFALL. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE TOWARD THE WESTERN AREAS BY
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT DISTURBANCE
REFERENCED IN THE SHORT TERM SECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD A 500 MB LOW WILL BE SITUATED NEAR HUDSON
BAY. THIS WILL KEEP A WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION ON
SUNDAY. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION ON
SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS,
MAINLY TO NORTHERN AREAS DURING SUNDAY, OTHERWISE EXPECT PARTLY
TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S NORTH AND UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80
DOWNEAST, BUT IT WILL BE COOLER ALONG THE COAST.

SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED. LOWS
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60.

THE UPPER LOW OVER HUDSON BAY AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL
BEGIN TO DROP INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION WITH NORTHERN MAINE
STILL ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER RIDGE. AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE 80S ACROSS MOST
OF THE REGION AWAY FROM THE COAST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL START TO AFFECT WESTERN MAINE BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD
FRONT WILL BE ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER WELL INTO THE NIGHT ACROSS EASTERN AREAS
AS THE FRONT SLOWLY MOVES EAST. MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE MILD WITH
LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE COAST TUESDAY MORNING BUT A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA DURING TUESDAY
AFTERNOON WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FROM SHOWERS OR AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM.

THE SECONDARY FRONT WILL MOVE EAST TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A COOLER
AND DRIER AIR MASS TO FOLLOW FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL TROF ACROSS THE AREA.

THE UPPER TROF WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR DRY WEATHER WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. WE COULD ONCE AGAIN SEE SOME SHOWERS
RETURN BY NEXT WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MOST OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: BASICALLY VFR INTO TONIGHT OUTSIDE SOME SHRA AND TSRA
WHICH COULD BRING BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR AND PERHAPS IFR. HAIL AND
STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AT THE
TERMINALS W/THE EXCEPTION OF KBHB. VSBY OVERNIGHT COULD DROP TO
MVFR DUE TO EARLIER ACTIVITY AND COOLER BLYR.

SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREDOMINATE THROUGH THE PERIOD
OUTSIDE OF LCL MVFR IN ANY SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SOUTH SWELL LOOKS BE SETTING UP W/A PERIOD OF 8
SECONDS. THE SWELL IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT W/WAVE
HEIGHTS BUILDING TO A RANGE OF 2-4 FT. THE OUTER ZONES COULD SEE
3-5 IN SWELLS W/PERIODS OF 9-10 SECONDS. WINDS WILL PICK UP SOME
THIS EVENING W/THE FROPA TO 10-15 KTS AND AGAIN THIS WILL BE
MAINLY THE CASE FOR THE OUTER ZONES.

SHORT TERM: WIND/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HEWITT
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...HEWITT/DUDA
MARINE...HEWITT/DUDA



000
FXUS61 KCAR 011045
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
645 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
THIS WEEKEND BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
645 AM UPDATE...UPDATED THE SKY CONDITIONS TO SHOW MORE CLOUDS
MOVING INTO THE REGION PER THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY. HRLY
TEMPS WERE ADJUSTED AS WELL ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS.

FOCUS CONTINUES TO BE ON CONVECTION TODAY. CONFIDENCE IS BUILDING
THAT SOME CELLS COULD GO SEVERE. MORE ON THIS BELOW.

06Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD WEAK HIGH PRES RIDGE TO THE E W/SFC
FRONT MOVING TOWARD QUEBEC. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS HAD SHOWN UP
EARLIERMOVING ACROSS THE W BUT DISSIPATED. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWED AREA OF CLOUDS MOVING NE ACROSS NORTHERN NYS INTO SOUTHERN
QUEBEC. FURTHER E, MAINLY CLEAR CONDITIONS. STRONG VORTICITY MAX
CAN BE SEEN SPINNING WEST OF THE QUEBEC PROVINCE. THE ATMOSPHERE
IS POISED TO DESTABILIZE THIS MORNING W/HEATING. LATEST MODEL
SOUNDINGS(GFS/NAM/WRF) INDICATE SB/MU CAPES TO HIT 1500+ JOULES BY
EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. LIS DROP TO A RANGE OF -3
TO -6. ENOUGH MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE AVAILABLE THROUGH 700MBS W/AN
INVERTED V IN THE LLVLS. 0-6KM SHEAR TO BE 30+ KTS W/GOOD COLD
POOL ALOFT. THEREFORE, AS THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED VORTICITY MAX
MOVES INTO THE REGION, SHOWERS AND SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INITIATE BY EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL AREAS
W/DECENT LAPSE RATES OF 6.5+ C/KM IN THE MID LEVELS. HAIL IS A
GOOD BET W/THE DRY AIR ALOFT AND COLD POOL. PLUS HAIL CAPE WAS
SHOWN TO BE AROUND 400+ JOULES WHICH IS IN THE RANGE FOR HAIL.

WIND GUSTS ARE BE A CONCERN DUE TO THE SHEAR AND A DECENT
JETSTREAK AT THE 700MBS FORECAST TO SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION. STORM
STRUCTURE WILL BE MULTICELLULAR W/A FEW CELLS REACHING NEAR SUPER
CELLS LIMITS IF STORMS CAN STAY ORGANIZED. OTHER PARAMETERS TO
SUPPORT POSSIBLE SEVERE TSTMS ARE TOTAL TOTALS HIT 50+ AND THE
SHOWALTER INDEX DROPS TO -2. SPC HAS KEPT THE CWA IN A MARGINAL
RISK FOR A FEW STORMS TO GO SEVERE W/LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WIND
GUSTS THE MAIN THREAT. THE FIRST SET OF ACTION WILL MOVE ACROSS
NORTH-CENTRAL AREAS BY EARLY AFTERNOON W/A 2ND AREA ACROSS THE
INTERIOR DOWNEAST INTO WASHINGTON COUNTY. PER COLLABORATION
W/GYX, KEPT ENHANCED WORDING FOR HAIL AND WIND GUSTS EXCEPT FOR
THE COAST AS A SEA BREEZE SETS UP BY EARLY AFTERNOON SHUTTING DOWN
THE STRONG CONVECTIVE THREAT. THIS SEA BREEZE COULD BE A PLAYER IN
STRENGTHENING CONVECTION AS IT COULD INTERACT W/CELLS MOVING
ACROSS THE INTERIOR DOWNEAST. THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL
BE UPDATED THIS MORNING TO REFLECT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL.

FOR TONIGHT, ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO WIND DOWN AND SHIFT E IN THE
EVENING AS THE FRONT AND UPPER SUPPORT MOVE INTO NEW BRUNSWICK.
PARTIAL CLEARING AND COOLER LATER IN THE EVENING. THIS COULD
ALLOW FOR FOG FORMATION ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT RECEIVED
RAINFALL. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE TOWARD THE WESTERN AREAS BY
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT DISTURBANCE
REFERENCED IN THE SHORT TERM SECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD A 500 MB LOW WILL BE SITUATED NEAR HUDSON
BAY. THIS WILL KEEP A WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION ON
SUNDAY. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION ON
SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS,
MAINLY TO NORTHERN AREAS DURING SUNDAY, OTHERWISE EXPECT PARTLY
TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S NORTH AND UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80
DOWNEAST, BUT IT WILL BE COOLER ALONG THE COAST.

SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED. LOWS
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60.

THE UPPER LOW OVER HUDSON BAY AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL
BEGIN TO DROP INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION WITH NORTHERN MAINE
STILL ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER RIDGE. AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE 80S ACROSS MOST
OF THE REGION AWAY FROM THE COAST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL START TO AFFECT WESTERN MAINE BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD
FRONT WILL BE ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER WELL INTO THE NIGHT ACROSS EASTERN AREAS
AS THE FRONT SLOWLY MOVES EAST. MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE MILD WITH
LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE COAST TUESDAY MORNING BUT A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA DURING TUESDAY
AFTERNOON WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FROM SHOWERS OR AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM.

THE SECONDARY FRONT WILL MOVE EAST TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A COOLER
AND DRIER AIR MASS TO FOLLOW FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL TROF ACROSS THE AREA.

THE UPPER TROF WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR DRY WEATHER WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. WE COULD ONCE AGAIN SEE SOME SHOWERS
RETURN BY NEXT WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MOST OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: BASICALLY VFR INTO TONIGHT OUTSIDE SOME SHRA AND TSRA
WHICH COULD BRING BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR AND PERHAPS IFR. HAIL AND
STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AT THE
TERMINALS W/THE EXCEPTION OF KBHB. VSBY OVERNIGHT COULD DROP TO
MVFR DUE TO EARLIER ACTIVITY AND COOLER BLYR.

SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREDOMINATE THROUGH THE PERIOD
OUTSIDE OF LCL MVFR IN ANY SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SOUTH SWELL LOOKS BE SETTING UP W/A PERIOD OF 8
SECONDS. THE SWELL IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT W/WAVE
HEIGHTS BUILDING TO A RANGE OF 2-4 FT. THE OUTER ZONES COULD SEE
3-5 IN SWELLS W/PERIODS OF 9-10 SECONDS. WINDS WILL PICK UP SOME
THIS EVENING W/THE FROPA TO 10-15 KTS AND AGAIN THIS WILL BE
MAINLY THE CASE FOR THE OUTER ZONES.

SHORT TERM: WIND/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HEWITT
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...HEWITT/DUDA
MARINE...HEWITT/DUDA



000
FXUS61 KCAR 011045
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
645 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
THIS WEEKEND BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
645 AM UPDATE...UPDATED THE SKY CONDITIONS TO SHOW MORE CLOUDS
MOVING INTO THE REGION PER THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY. HRLY
TEMPS WERE ADJUSTED AS WELL ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS.

FOCUS CONTINUES TO BE ON CONVECTION TODAY. CONFIDENCE IS BUILDING
THAT SOME CELLS COULD GO SEVERE. MORE ON THIS BELOW.

06Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD WEAK HIGH PRES RIDGE TO THE E W/SFC
FRONT MOVING TOWARD QUEBEC. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS HAD SHOWN UP
EARLIERMOVING ACROSS THE W BUT DISSIPATED. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWED AREA OF CLOUDS MOVING NE ACROSS NORTHERN NYS INTO SOUTHERN
QUEBEC. FURTHER E, MAINLY CLEAR CONDITIONS. STRONG VORTICITY MAX
CAN BE SEEN SPINNING WEST OF THE QUEBEC PROVINCE. THE ATMOSPHERE
IS POISED TO DESTABILIZE THIS MORNING W/HEATING. LATEST MODEL
SOUNDINGS(GFS/NAM/WRF) INDICATE SB/MU CAPES TO HIT 1500+ JOULES BY
EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. LIS DROP TO A RANGE OF -3
TO -6. ENOUGH MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE AVAILABLE THROUGH 700MBS W/AN
INVERTED V IN THE LLVLS. 0-6KM SHEAR TO BE 30+ KTS W/GOOD COLD
POOL ALOFT. THEREFORE, AS THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED VORTICITY MAX
MOVES INTO THE REGION, SHOWERS AND SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INITIATE BY EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL AREAS
W/DECENT LAPSE RATES OF 6.5+ C/KM IN THE MID LEVELS. HAIL IS A
GOOD BET W/THE DRY AIR ALOFT AND COLD POOL. PLUS HAIL CAPE WAS
SHOWN TO BE AROUND 400+ JOULES WHICH IS IN THE RANGE FOR HAIL.

WIND GUSTS ARE BE A CONCERN DUE TO THE SHEAR AND A DECENT
JETSTREAK AT THE 700MBS FORECAST TO SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION. STORM
STRUCTURE WILL BE MULTICELLULAR W/A FEW CELLS REACHING NEAR SUPER
CELLS LIMITS IF STORMS CAN STAY ORGANIZED. OTHER PARAMETERS TO
SUPPORT POSSIBLE SEVERE TSTMS ARE TOTAL TOTALS HIT 50+ AND THE
SHOWALTER INDEX DROPS TO -2. SPC HAS KEPT THE CWA IN A MARGINAL
RISK FOR A FEW STORMS TO GO SEVERE W/LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WIND
GUSTS THE MAIN THREAT. THE FIRST SET OF ACTION WILL MOVE ACROSS
NORTH-CENTRAL AREAS BY EARLY AFTERNOON W/A 2ND AREA ACROSS THE
INTERIOR DOWNEAST INTO WASHINGTON COUNTY. PER COLLABORATION
W/GYX, KEPT ENHANCED WORDING FOR HAIL AND WIND GUSTS EXCEPT FOR
THE COAST AS A SEA BREEZE SETS UP BY EARLY AFTERNOON SHUTTING DOWN
THE STRONG CONVECTIVE THREAT. THIS SEA BREEZE COULD BE A PLAYER IN
STRENGTHENING CONVECTION AS IT COULD INTERACT W/CELLS MOVING
ACROSS THE INTERIOR DOWNEAST. THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL
BE UPDATED THIS MORNING TO REFLECT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL.

FOR TONIGHT, ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO WIND DOWN AND SHIFT E IN THE
EVENING AS THE FRONT AND UPPER SUPPORT MOVE INTO NEW BRUNSWICK.
PARTIAL CLEARING AND COOLER LATER IN THE EVENING. THIS COULD
ALLOW FOR FOG FORMATION ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT RECEIVED
RAINFALL. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE TOWARD THE WESTERN AREAS BY
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT DISTURBANCE
REFERENCED IN THE SHORT TERM SECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD A 500 MB LOW WILL BE SITUATED NEAR HUDSON
BAY. THIS WILL KEEP A WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION ON
SUNDAY. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION ON
SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS,
MAINLY TO NORTHERN AREAS DURING SUNDAY, OTHERWISE EXPECT PARTLY
TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S NORTH AND UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80
DOWNEAST, BUT IT WILL BE COOLER ALONG THE COAST.

SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED. LOWS
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60.

THE UPPER LOW OVER HUDSON BAY AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL
BEGIN TO DROP INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION WITH NORTHERN MAINE
STILL ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER RIDGE. AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE 80S ACROSS MOST
OF THE REGION AWAY FROM THE COAST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL START TO AFFECT WESTERN MAINE BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD
FRONT WILL BE ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER WELL INTO THE NIGHT ACROSS EASTERN AREAS
AS THE FRONT SLOWLY MOVES EAST. MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE MILD WITH
LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE COAST TUESDAY MORNING BUT A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA DURING TUESDAY
AFTERNOON WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FROM SHOWERS OR AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM.

THE SECONDARY FRONT WILL MOVE EAST TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A COOLER
AND DRIER AIR MASS TO FOLLOW FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL TROF ACROSS THE AREA.

THE UPPER TROF WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR DRY WEATHER WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. WE COULD ONCE AGAIN SEE SOME SHOWERS
RETURN BY NEXT WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MOST OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: BASICALLY VFR INTO TONIGHT OUTSIDE SOME SHRA AND TSRA
WHICH COULD BRING BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR AND PERHAPS IFR. HAIL AND
STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AT THE
TERMINALS W/THE EXCEPTION OF KBHB. VSBY OVERNIGHT COULD DROP TO
MVFR DUE TO EARLIER ACTIVITY AND COOLER BLYR.

SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREDOMINATE THROUGH THE PERIOD
OUTSIDE OF LCL MVFR IN ANY SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SOUTH SWELL LOOKS BE SETTING UP W/A PERIOD OF 8
SECONDS. THE SWELL IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT W/WAVE
HEIGHTS BUILDING TO A RANGE OF 2-4 FT. THE OUTER ZONES COULD SEE
3-5 IN SWELLS W/PERIODS OF 9-10 SECONDS. WINDS WILL PICK UP SOME
THIS EVENING W/THE FROPA TO 10-15 KTS AND AGAIN THIS WILL BE
MAINLY THE CASE FOR THE OUTER ZONES.

SHORT TERM: WIND/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HEWITT
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...HEWITT/DUDA
MARINE...HEWITT/DUDA



000
FXUS61 KCAR 011045
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
645 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
THIS WEEKEND BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
645 AM UPDATE...UPDATED THE SKY CONDITIONS TO SHOW MORE CLOUDS
MOVING INTO THE REGION PER THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY. HRLY
TEMPS WERE ADJUSTED AS WELL ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS.

FOCUS CONTINUES TO BE ON CONVECTION TODAY. CONFIDENCE IS BUILDING
THAT SOME CELLS COULD GO SEVERE. MORE ON THIS BELOW.

06Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD WEAK HIGH PRES RIDGE TO THE E W/SFC
FRONT MOVING TOWARD QUEBEC. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS HAD SHOWN UP
EARLIERMOVING ACROSS THE W BUT DISSIPATED. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWED AREA OF CLOUDS MOVING NE ACROSS NORTHERN NYS INTO SOUTHERN
QUEBEC. FURTHER E, MAINLY CLEAR CONDITIONS. STRONG VORTICITY MAX
CAN BE SEEN SPINNING WEST OF THE QUEBEC PROVINCE. THE ATMOSPHERE
IS POISED TO DESTABILIZE THIS MORNING W/HEATING. LATEST MODEL
SOUNDINGS(GFS/NAM/WRF) INDICATE SB/MU CAPES TO HIT 1500+ JOULES BY
EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. LIS DROP TO A RANGE OF -3
TO -6. ENOUGH MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE AVAILABLE THROUGH 700MBS W/AN
INVERTED V IN THE LLVLS. 0-6KM SHEAR TO BE 30+ KTS W/GOOD COLD
POOL ALOFT. THEREFORE, AS THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED VORTICITY MAX
MOVES INTO THE REGION, SHOWERS AND SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INITIATE BY EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL AREAS
W/DECENT LAPSE RATES OF 6.5+ C/KM IN THE MID LEVELS. HAIL IS A
GOOD BET W/THE DRY AIR ALOFT AND COLD POOL. PLUS HAIL CAPE WAS
SHOWN TO BE AROUND 400+ JOULES WHICH IS IN THE RANGE FOR HAIL.

WIND GUSTS ARE BE A CONCERN DUE TO THE SHEAR AND A DECENT
JETSTREAK AT THE 700MBS FORECAST TO SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION. STORM
STRUCTURE WILL BE MULTICELLULAR W/A FEW CELLS REACHING NEAR SUPER
CELLS LIMITS IF STORMS CAN STAY ORGANIZED. OTHER PARAMETERS TO
SUPPORT POSSIBLE SEVERE TSTMS ARE TOTAL TOTALS HIT 50+ AND THE
SHOWALTER INDEX DROPS TO -2. SPC HAS KEPT THE CWA IN A MARGINAL
RISK FOR A FEW STORMS TO GO SEVERE W/LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WIND
GUSTS THE MAIN THREAT. THE FIRST SET OF ACTION WILL MOVE ACROSS
NORTH-CENTRAL AREAS BY EARLY AFTERNOON W/A 2ND AREA ACROSS THE
INTERIOR DOWNEAST INTO WASHINGTON COUNTY. PER COLLABORATION
W/GYX, KEPT ENHANCED WORDING FOR HAIL AND WIND GUSTS EXCEPT FOR
THE COAST AS A SEA BREEZE SETS UP BY EARLY AFTERNOON SHUTTING DOWN
THE STRONG CONVECTIVE THREAT. THIS SEA BREEZE COULD BE A PLAYER IN
STRENGTHENING CONVECTION AS IT COULD INTERACT W/CELLS MOVING
ACROSS THE INTERIOR DOWNEAST. THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL
BE UPDATED THIS MORNING TO REFLECT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL.

FOR TONIGHT, ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO WIND DOWN AND SHIFT E IN THE
EVENING AS THE FRONT AND UPPER SUPPORT MOVE INTO NEW BRUNSWICK.
PARTIAL CLEARING AND COOLER LATER IN THE EVENING. THIS COULD
ALLOW FOR FOG FORMATION ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT RECEIVED
RAINFALL. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE TOWARD THE WESTERN AREAS BY
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT DISTURBANCE
REFERENCED IN THE SHORT TERM SECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD A 500 MB LOW WILL BE SITUATED NEAR HUDSON
BAY. THIS WILL KEEP A WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION ON
SUNDAY. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION ON
SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS,
MAINLY TO NORTHERN AREAS DURING SUNDAY, OTHERWISE EXPECT PARTLY
TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S NORTH AND UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80
DOWNEAST, BUT IT WILL BE COOLER ALONG THE COAST.

SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED. LOWS
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60.

THE UPPER LOW OVER HUDSON BAY AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL
BEGIN TO DROP INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION WITH NORTHERN MAINE
STILL ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER RIDGE. AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE 80S ACROSS MOST
OF THE REGION AWAY FROM THE COAST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL START TO AFFECT WESTERN MAINE BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD
FRONT WILL BE ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER WELL INTO THE NIGHT ACROSS EASTERN AREAS
AS THE FRONT SLOWLY MOVES EAST. MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE MILD WITH
LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE COAST TUESDAY MORNING BUT A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA DURING TUESDAY
AFTERNOON WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FROM SHOWERS OR AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM.

THE SECONDARY FRONT WILL MOVE EAST TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A COOLER
AND DRIER AIR MASS TO FOLLOW FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL TROF ACROSS THE AREA.

THE UPPER TROF WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR DRY WEATHER WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. WE COULD ONCE AGAIN SEE SOME SHOWERS
RETURN BY NEXT WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MOST OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: BASICALLY VFR INTO TONIGHT OUTSIDE SOME SHRA AND TSRA
WHICH COULD BRING BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR AND PERHAPS IFR. HAIL AND
STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AT THE
TERMINALS W/THE EXCEPTION OF KBHB. VSBY OVERNIGHT COULD DROP TO
MVFR DUE TO EARLIER ACTIVITY AND COOLER BLYR.

SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREDOMINATE THROUGH THE PERIOD
OUTSIDE OF LCL MVFR IN ANY SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SOUTH SWELL LOOKS BE SETTING UP W/A PERIOD OF 8
SECONDS. THE SWELL IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT W/WAVE
HEIGHTS BUILDING TO A RANGE OF 2-4 FT. THE OUTER ZONES COULD SEE
3-5 IN SWELLS W/PERIODS OF 9-10 SECONDS. WINDS WILL PICK UP SOME
THIS EVENING W/THE FROPA TO 10-15 KTS AND AGAIN THIS WILL BE
MAINLY THE CASE FOR THE OUTER ZONES.

SHORT TERM: WIND/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HEWITT
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...HEWITT/DUDA
MARINE...HEWITT/DUDA



000
FXUS61 KCAR 011045
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
645 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
THIS WEEKEND BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
645 AM UPDATE...UPDATED THE SKY CONDITIONS TO SHOW MORE CLOUDS
MOVING INTO THE REGION PER THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY. HRLY
TEMPS WERE ADJUSTED AS WELL ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS.

FOCUS CONTINUES TO BE ON CONVECTION TODAY. CONFIDENCE IS BUILDING
THAT SOME CELLS COULD GO SEVERE. MORE ON THIS BELOW.

06Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD WEAK HIGH PRES RIDGE TO THE E W/SFC
FRONT MOVING TOWARD QUEBEC. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS HAD SHOWN UP
EARLIERMOVING ACROSS THE W BUT DISSIPATED. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWED AREA OF CLOUDS MOVING NE ACROSS NORTHERN NYS INTO SOUTHERN
QUEBEC. FURTHER E, MAINLY CLEAR CONDITIONS. STRONG VORTICITY MAX
CAN BE SEEN SPINNING WEST OF THE QUEBEC PROVINCE. THE ATMOSPHERE
IS POISED TO DESTABILIZE THIS MORNING W/HEATING. LATEST MODEL
SOUNDINGS(GFS/NAM/WRF) INDICATE SB/MU CAPES TO HIT 1500+ JOULES BY
EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. LIS DROP TO A RANGE OF -3
TO -6. ENOUGH MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE AVAILABLE THROUGH 700MBS W/AN
INVERTED V IN THE LLVLS. 0-6KM SHEAR TO BE 30+ KTS W/GOOD COLD
POOL ALOFT. THEREFORE, AS THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED VORTICITY MAX
MOVES INTO THE REGION, SHOWERS AND SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INITIATE BY EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL AREAS
W/DECENT LAPSE RATES OF 6.5+ C/KM IN THE MID LEVELS. HAIL IS A
GOOD BET W/THE DRY AIR ALOFT AND COLD POOL. PLUS HAIL CAPE WAS
SHOWN TO BE AROUND 400+ JOULES WHICH IS IN THE RANGE FOR HAIL.

WIND GUSTS ARE BE A CONCERN DUE TO THE SHEAR AND A DECENT
JETSTREAK AT THE 700MBS FORECAST TO SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION. STORM
STRUCTURE WILL BE MULTICELLULAR W/A FEW CELLS REACHING NEAR SUPER
CELLS LIMITS IF STORMS CAN STAY ORGANIZED. OTHER PARAMETERS TO
SUPPORT POSSIBLE SEVERE TSTMS ARE TOTAL TOTALS HIT 50+ AND THE
SHOWALTER INDEX DROPS TO -2. SPC HAS KEPT THE CWA IN A MARGINAL
RISK FOR A FEW STORMS TO GO SEVERE W/LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WIND
GUSTS THE MAIN THREAT. THE FIRST SET OF ACTION WILL MOVE ACROSS
NORTH-CENTRAL AREAS BY EARLY AFTERNOON W/A 2ND AREA ACROSS THE
INTERIOR DOWNEAST INTO WASHINGTON COUNTY. PER COLLABORATION
W/GYX, KEPT ENHANCED WORDING FOR HAIL AND WIND GUSTS EXCEPT FOR
THE COAST AS A SEA BREEZE SETS UP BY EARLY AFTERNOON SHUTTING DOWN
THE STRONG CONVECTIVE THREAT. THIS SEA BREEZE COULD BE A PLAYER IN
STRENGTHENING CONVECTION AS IT COULD INTERACT W/CELLS MOVING
ACROSS THE INTERIOR DOWNEAST. THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL
BE UPDATED THIS MORNING TO REFLECT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL.

FOR TONIGHT, ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO WIND DOWN AND SHIFT E IN THE
EVENING AS THE FRONT AND UPPER SUPPORT MOVE INTO NEW BRUNSWICK.
PARTIAL CLEARING AND COOLER LATER IN THE EVENING. THIS COULD
ALLOW FOR FOG FORMATION ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT RECEIVED
RAINFALL. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE TOWARD THE WESTERN AREAS BY
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT DISTURBANCE
REFERENCED IN THE SHORT TERM SECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD A 500 MB LOW WILL BE SITUATED NEAR HUDSON
BAY. THIS WILL KEEP A WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION ON
SUNDAY. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION ON
SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS,
MAINLY TO NORTHERN AREAS DURING SUNDAY, OTHERWISE EXPECT PARTLY
TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S NORTH AND UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80
DOWNEAST, BUT IT WILL BE COOLER ALONG THE COAST.

SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED. LOWS
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60.

THE UPPER LOW OVER HUDSON BAY AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL
BEGIN TO DROP INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION WITH NORTHERN MAINE
STILL ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER RIDGE. AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE 80S ACROSS MOST
OF THE REGION AWAY FROM THE COAST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL START TO AFFECT WESTERN MAINE BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD
FRONT WILL BE ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER WELL INTO THE NIGHT ACROSS EASTERN AREAS
AS THE FRONT SLOWLY MOVES EAST. MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE MILD WITH
LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE COAST TUESDAY MORNING BUT A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA DURING TUESDAY
AFTERNOON WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FROM SHOWERS OR AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM.

THE SECONDARY FRONT WILL MOVE EAST TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A COOLER
AND DRIER AIR MASS TO FOLLOW FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL TROF ACROSS THE AREA.

THE UPPER TROF WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR DRY WEATHER WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. WE COULD ONCE AGAIN SEE SOME SHOWERS
RETURN BY NEXT WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MOST OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: BASICALLY VFR INTO TONIGHT OUTSIDE SOME SHRA AND TSRA
WHICH COULD BRING BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR AND PERHAPS IFR. HAIL AND
STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AT THE
TERMINALS W/THE EXCEPTION OF KBHB. VSBY OVERNIGHT COULD DROP TO
MVFR DUE TO EARLIER ACTIVITY AND COOLER BLYR.

SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREDOMINATE THROUGH THE PERIOD
OUTSIDE OF LCL MVFR IN ANY SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SOUTH SWELL LOOKS BE SETTING UP W/A PERIOD OF 8
SECONDS. THE SWELL IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT W/WAVE
HEIGHTS BUILDING TO A RANGE OF 2-4 FT. THE OUTER ZONES COULD SEE
3-5 IN SWELLS W/PERIODS OF 9-10 SECONDS. WINDS WILL PICK UP SOME
THIS EVENING W/THE FROPA TO 10-15 KTS AND AGAIN THIS WILL BE
MAINLY THE CASE FOR THE OUTER ZONES.

SHORT TERM: WIND/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HEWITT
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...HEWITT/DUDA
MARINE...HEWITT/DUDA



000
FXUS61 KCAR 011045
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
645 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
THIS WEEKEND BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
645 AM UPDATE...UPDATED THE SKY CONDITIONS TO SHOW MORE CLOUDS
MOVING INTO THE REGION PER THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY. HRLY
TEMPS WERE ADJUSTED AS WELL ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS.

FOCUS CONTINUES TO BE ON CONVECTION TODAY. CONFIDENCE IS BUILDING
THAT SOME CELLS COULD GO SEVERE. MORE ON THIS BELOW.

06Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD WEAK HIGH PRES RIDGE TO THE E W/SFC
FRONT MOVING TOWARD QUEBEC. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS HAD SHOWN UP
EARLIERMOVING ACROSS THE W BUT DISSIPATED. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWED AREA OF CLOUDS MOVING NE ACROSS NORTHERN NYS INTO SOUTHERN
QUEBEC. FURTHER E, MAINLY CLEAR CONDITIONS. STRONG VORTICITY MAX
CAN BE SEEN SPINNING WEST OF THE QUEBEC PROVINCE. THE ATMOSPHERE
IS POISED TO DESTABILIZE THIS MORNING W/HEATING. LATEST MODEL
SOUNDINGS(GFS/NAM/WRF) INDICATE SB/MU CAPES TO HIT 1500+ JOULES BY
EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. LIS DROP TO A RANGE OF -3
TO -6. ENOUGH MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE AVAILABLE THROUGH 700MBS W/AN
INVERTED V IN THE LLVLS. 0-6KM SHEAR TO BE 30+ KTS W/GOOD COLD
POOL ALOFT. THEREFORE, AS THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED VORTICITY MAX
MOVES INTO THE REGION, SHOWERS AND SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INITIATE BY EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL AREAS
W/DECENT LAPSE RATES OF 6.5+ C/KM IN THE MID LEVELS. HAIL IS A
GOOD BET W/THE DRY AIR ALOFT AND COLD POOL. PLUS HAIL CAPE WAS
SHOWN TO BE AROUND 400+ JOULES WHICH IS IN THE RANGE FOR HAIL.

WIND GUSTS ARE BE A CONCERN DUE TO THE SHEAR AND A DECENT
JETSTREAK AT THE 700MBS FORECAST TO SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION. STORM
STRUCTURE WILL BE MULTICELLULAR W/A FEW CELLS REACHING NEAR SUPER
CELLS LIMITS IF STORMS CAN STAY ORGANIZED. OTHER PARAMETERS TO
SUPPORT POSSIBLE SEVERE TSTMS ARE TOTAL TOTALS HIT 50+ AND THE
SHOWALTER INDEX DROPS TO -2. SPC HAS KEPT THE CWA IN A MARGINAL
RISK FOR A FEW STORMS TO GO SEVERE W/LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WIND
GUSTS THE MAIN THREAT. THE FIRST SET OF ACTION WILL MOVE ACROSS
NORTH-CENTRAL AREAS BY EARLY AFTERNOON W/A 2ND AREA ACROSS THE
INTERIOR DOWNEAST INTO WASHINGTON COUNTY. PER COLLABORATION
W/GYX, KEPT ENHANCED WORDING FOR HAIL AND WIND GUSTS EXCEPT FOR
THE COAST AS A SEA BREEZE SETS UP BY EARLY AFTERNOON SHUTTING DOWN
THE STRONG CONVECTIVE THREAT. THIS SEA BREEZE COULD BE A PLAYER IN
STRENGTHENING CONVECTION AS IT COULD INTERACT W/CELLS MOVING
ACROSS THE INTERIOR DOWNEAST. THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL
BE UPDATED THIS MORNING TO REFLECT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL.

FOR TONIGHT, ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO WIND DOWN AND SHIFT E IN THE
EVENING AS THE FRONT AND UPPER SUPPORT MOVE INTO NEW BRUNSWICK.
PARTIAL CLEARING AND COOLER LATER IN THE EVENING. THIS COULD
ALLOW FOR FOG FORMATION ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT RECEIVED
RAINFALL. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE TOWARD THE WESTERN AREAS BY
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT DISTURBANCE
REFERENCED IN THE SHORT TERM SECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD A 500 MB LOW WILL BE SITUATED NEAR HUDSON
BAY. THIS WILL KEEP A WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION ON
SUNDAY. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION ON
SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS,
MAINLY TO NORTHERN AREAS DURING SUNDAY, OTHERWISE EXPECT PARTLY
TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S NORTH AND UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80
DOWNEAST, BUT IT WILL BE COOLER ALONG THE COAST.

SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED. LOWS
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60.

THE UPPER LOW OVER HUDSON BAY AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL
BEGIN TO DROP INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION WITH NORTHERN MAINE
STILL ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER RIDGE. AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE 80S ACROSS MOST
OF THE REGION AWAY FROM THE COAST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL START TO AFFECT WESTERN MAINE BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD
FRONT WILL BE ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER WELL INTO THE NIGHT ACROSS EASTERN AREAS
AS THE FRONT SLOWLY MOVES EAST. MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE MILD WITH
LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE COAST TUESDAY MORNING BUT A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA DURING TUESDAY
AFTERNOON WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FROM SHOWERS OR AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM.

THE SECONDARY FRONT WILL MOVE EAST TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A COOLER
AND DRIER AIR MASS TO FOLLOW FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL TROF ACROSS THE AREA.

THE UPPER TROF WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR DRY WEATHER WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. WE COULD ONCE AGAIN SEE SOME SHOWERS
RETURN BY NEXT WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MOST OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: BASICALLY VFR INTO TONIGHT OUTSIDE SOME SHRA AND TSRA
WHICH COULD BRING BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR AND PERHAPS IFR. HAIL AND
STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AT THE
TERMINALS W/THE EXCEPTION OF KBHB. VSBY OVERNIGHT COULD DROP TO
MVFR DUE TO EARLIER ACTIVITY AND COOLER BLYR.

SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREDOMINATE THROUGH THE PERIOD
OUTSIDE OF LCL MVFR IN ANY SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SOUTH SWELL LOOKS BE SETTING UP W/A PERIOD OF 8
SECONDS. THE SWELL IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT W/WAVE
HEIGHTS BUILDING TO A RANGE OF 2-4 FT. THE OUTER ZONES COULD SEE
3-5 IN SWELLS W/PERIODS OF 9-10 SECONDS. WINDS WILL PICK UP SOME
THIS EVENING W/THE FROPA TO 10-15 KTS AND AGAIN THIS WILL BE
MAINLY THE CASE FOR THE OUTER ZONES.

SHORT TERM: WIND/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HEWITT
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...HEWITT/DUDA
MARINE...HEWITT/DUDA




000
FXUS61 KGYX 011025 AAB
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
625 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY...BRINGING ANOTHER THREAT
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY DROP OFF
A LITTLE MORE BEHIND THIS FRONT. SUNDAY SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. WEAK LOW PRESSURE
ALOFT...SITUATED OVER QUEBEC...WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND SHOWERS OR
STORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY. THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD
WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED WITH A FEW ROUNDS OF SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
553AM UPDATE: WILL DIMINISH EARLY MORNING POPS SOME BASED ON
WEAKENING RADAR TREND SEEN WITH INITIAL ECHOES AS THEY ATTEMPT TO
WORK THROUGH NORTHERN VERMONT AND OUTRUN ANY MEANINGFUL MUCAPE
FROM RECENT RAP ANALYSES. EXPECT THAT WE/LL NEED A LITTLE MORNING
SUN AND RESULTANT INSTABILITY TO GET ACTIVITY TO INCREASE IN
COVERAGE/INTENSITY. HAVE ALSO LOWERED TEMPS SOME AND INCLUDED SOME
FOG THROUGH 12Z BASED ON EARLY MORNING OBSERVATIONS SHOWING
LOCALLY DENSE FOG IN THE NORTHERN VALLEYS.

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON FOR NORTHERN NH AND NORTHERN MAINE.

CURRENT PATTERN: CYCLONIC FLOW THROUGH THE COLUMN HAS FULLY
ENVELOPED THE REGION AS OF THIS WRITING WITH EARLY MORNING WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING VERTICALLY STACKED LOW CENTERED OVER HUDSON
BAY. A PARADE OF LOCAL VORTICITY MAXIMA CAN ALSO BE SEEN ROTATING
AROUND THIS FEATURE...WITH A BAND OF ENHANCED MOISTURE STRETCHING
FROM CENTRAL ONTARIO SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES...AND JUST STARTING TO SCRAPE NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. A
SHORTWAVE IS COLLOCATED WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS
MOISTURE...WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT SPARKING A FEW SHOWERS /AND
EMBEDDED THUNDER/ ACROSS NEW YORK INTO FAR WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.
THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE NORTH OF NEW ENGLAND WILL CONTINUE TO RIDE
NORTH AND EAST...MAKING WAY FOR ANOTHER WAVE...NOW OVER SOUTHERN
ONTARIO...TO PULL EAST AND BE THE FOCUS FOR OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER
TODAY. FORECAST CHALLENGES CENTER AROUND PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL
WITH THIS FEATURE AS WELL AS THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY STRONG/SEVERE
CONVECTION.

THROUGH DAYBREAK: SHOWERS SEEN ON REGIONAL 88D MOSAIC CONTINUE TO
MAKE A RUN AT NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE.  EXPECT THAT WE/LL HAVE TO
WAIT FOR THE ACTIVITY IN NEW YORK TO MOVE INTO THE REGION FOR ANY
APPRECIABLE PRECIPITATION...WITH PERHAPS A SPRINKLE POSSIBLE OVER
COOS COUNTY NH THROUGH DAYBREAK.  OTHERWISE...JUST SOME MID LEVEL
CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOWER 50S NORTH THROUGH THE
LOWER 60 OVER SOUTHERN NH.

TODAY: ATTENTION TURNS TO UPSTREAM PV ANOMALY MENTIONED ABOVE.  THIS
FEATURE LOOKS TO SHARPEN AS IT ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH AND PUSH INTO NEW ENGLAND.  THIS FEATURE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED
BY 50KT JET AT H5 WITH A 1.5PV 85KT SPEED MAX.  MODEST HEIGHT FALLS
AND INCREASING DPVA WILL WORK IN TANDEM WITH MODEST MOISTURE
INCREASE AND GOOD LAPSE RATES THROUGH H5 /GIVEN COOL POOL ALOFT/
TO ALLOW CONVECTION CURRENTLY OVER NEW YORK TO EXPAND AS IT MOVES
THROUGH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...BEING JOINED LATER BY ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS/WEAK SURFACE FRONT.
THUS...EXPECT SHRAS TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE...WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER
BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD AS INSTABILITY GROWS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS
IMPRESSIVE...APPROACHING 50KTS IN THE 0-6KM LAYER WITH
LONG AND STRAIGHT...WEST-EAST ORIENTED HODOGRAPHS FAVORING MORE
CELLULAR STRUCTURE TO CELLS GIVEN ORTHOGONAL ORIENTATION OF THE
SHEAR TO THE FORCING FEATURE /FRONT/. INSTABILITY WILL BE
SOMEWHAT LIMITED GIVEN ONLY MODEST LLEVEL MOISTURE RECOVERY...BUT
1K J/KG MLCAPE APPEARS POSSIBLE TO ATTAIN OVER FAR NORTHERN NH /
NW MAINE CLOSER TO THE BEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.

SEVERE WEATHER THREATS:  PROFILES HAVE AN INVERTED-V LOOK TO
THEM...WHICH...WITH STRONG WINDS ALOFT SUGGEST A DAMAGING WIND
THREAT...ALTHOUGH MORE LOCALIZED GIVEN THE MORE CELLULAR NATURE TO
THE CONVECTION.  WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS 8-9KFT HIGHLIGHT A HAIL
THREAT AS WELL.  TOR THREAT VERY LOW GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED
INVERTED-V PROFILES.  OVERALL THREAT WILL BE TIED PRIMARILY TO
INSTABILITY...AND THEREFORE WILL BE GREATEST OVER FAR NORTHERN NH
AND NW MAINE...WHICH IS RIGHT IN LINE WITH THE NEW SWODY1 FROM SPC.
WILL INCLUDE ENHANCED WORDING IN THESE LOCATIONS...WITH LESS THUNDER
EMPHASIS FURTHER SOUTH. AND...WHILE THE ACTIVITY FURTHER SOUTH
WILL LIKELY NOT BE SEVERE...WILL MENTION GUSTY WINDS HERE AS WELL
GIVEN INVERTED-V NATURE TO THE PROFILES.

TEMPERATURES:  THE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER WILL SPELL A COOLER
DAY...PARTICULARLY OVER NORTHERN AREAS WHERE CONVECTION WILL BE MOST
WIDESPREAD.  HERE...HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE 70S.  DOWNSLOPE
WESTERLIES WILL PROMOTE HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S OVER SOUTHEASTERN NH
AND EXTREME SW MAINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE.

PATTERN/IMPLICATIONS: WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF
LONGWAVE TROUGH CENTERED OVER HUDSON BAY. OUR WEATHER WILL BE AT
THE MERCY OF SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THIS FEATURE...WITH A
RELATIVE LULL LIKELY FOR TONIGHT-SUNDAY BEHIND THE STRONGER WAVE
ON SATURDAY AND PRECEDING ANOTHER STRONG WAVE ON MONDAY. DESPITE
RELATIVELY LOW HEIGHTS IN THE TROUGH...LLEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN NEAR NORMAL PROMOTING SURFACE TEMPERATURES NOT TOO FAR FROM
SEASONAL NORMS.

TONIGHT: ANY AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD VERY QUICKLY WANE
WITH PARTIAL CLEARING...ALTHOUGH WITH DEEPER MOISTURE POOL CLOSER TO
THE REGION...DO EXPECT SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS TO HANG AROUND
THROUGH THE NIGHT.  LOWS LOOK NOT ALL THAT DISSIMILAR TO TONIGHT
WITH MODEST COOLING TO THE LLEVEL AIRMASS BEHIND DEPARTING COLD
FRONT.  GIVEN AT LEAST SOME RAIN ACROSS THE REGION...AND ONLY MODEST
COOLING BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT...SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG
LOOKS TO BE A GOOD BET.

SUNDAY:  DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION AND WHILE
THERE WILL BE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SYNOPTIC FORCING FOR ASCENT...MID
LEVEL COLD POOL /T5S NEAR -15C/ AND DECENT MOISTURE ALONG SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE HUDSON BAY VORTEX WILL LIKELY ALLOW SOME AFTERNOON
SHOWERS TO SPARK OVER THE MOUNTAINS.  ACTIVITY LOOKS WEAKER AND FAR
LESS WIDESPREAD THAN ON SATURDAY...SO REALLY NOT A BAD DAY EVEN UP
NORTH.  OVER SOUTHERN NH/SOUTHWEST MAINE...EXPECT A DIURNAL INCREASE
IN CLOUDS...BUT NO PRECIPITATION.  TEMPS ALOFT WILL BE ABOUT 2C
COOLER THAN ON SATURDAY...BUT WITH LIKELY A BIT MORE SUN...SO HIGH
TEMPERATURES LOOK SIMILAR TO THE DAY PREVIOUS...PERHAPS A DEGREE/TWO
COOLER FOR SOUTHEAST NH AND SW MAINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER IN THE EXTENDED WILL BE THREAT OF STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

500MB PATTERN IS TRENDING TOWARD A MODIFIED +PNA PATTERN WITH
CLOSED LOW STARTING OUR OVER HUDSON AROUND 60N AND EVENTUALLY
SHIFT SWD INTO SRN QUEBEC BY MID WEEK BEFORE SHIFTING THE NE AND
WEAKENING AS IT RUNS INTO N ATLANTIC RIDGING. THIS WILL PULL SOME
COOLER AIR SWD BY MID TO LATE THIS WEEK...AND WILL KEEP THINGS
SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED AS IT PRODUCES CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. TOWARD NEXT
WEEKEND THE CORE OF THE JET WILL SHIFT BACK TO THE N...AND COULD
SEE THINGS START TO WARM AGAIN.

SUN NIGHT WILL START WITH BUILDING 500MB RIDGING OVER ME AN THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES WHICH WILL ALLOW FLOW TO SHIFT TO THE SW ANDTAP
INTO WARM AIR...SFC AND MID-LVL JUST TO OUR SW. AFTER AN MAINLY
CLEAR AND SEASONABLY COOL SUN NIGHT MONDAY WILL WARM UP WITH
SHRA/TSRA MOVING INTO NW ZONES IN THE AFTERNOON. AS THE 500 MB
CLOSED LOW DEEPENS TO THE WEST AND HEIGHTS FALL WILL SEE DECENT
INSTABILITY DEVELOP ALONG WITH INCREASED FLOW ALOFT. NAM IS
SUGGESTING BORDERLINE EML MOVING IN OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN BY LATE
MON AFT INTO MON EVE...WHICH WOULD AID IN THE FORMATION OF SEVER
STORMS. AT ANY RATE THUNDERSTORMS...WILL BE A GOOD BET AWAY FROM
THE COAST MON AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. ANOTHER WEAK WAVE SWINGS
AROUND THE CLOSED LOW ON TUE...SO ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRA AND TSRA
POSSIBLE...AS THE COOLER AIR WILL WORK IN BEHIND THIS WAVE
TUESDAY. WED THRU FRI WILL BE PARTLY SUNNY...BUT COLD AIR ALOFT
COULD PRODUCE SCT SHRA...MAYBE A TSRA EACH DAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE
MTNS.

TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT ON THE WARM SIDE MONDAY...AS HIGHS
WILL SURGE BACK INTO THE 85-90 RANGE IN MANY INLAND SPOTS...BUT
SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER ON THE COAST...AND ESPECIALLY THE
MID-COAST WHERE SW FLOW INCREASES. IT WILL BE A WARM AND MUGGY MON
NIGHT...WITH TEMPS AND HUMIDITY ON THE HIGHER SIDE TUE...BUT MORE
CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGREES. ONCE THE FRONT COMES
THRU IN THE AFTERNOON LOOK FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS TO DROP TO AROUND
NORMAL...LOW-MID 50S N...TO THE LOW 60S IN SRN NH...WITH HIGHS
RUNNING IN THE LOW 70S TO AROUND 80 THRU THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION TODAY WITH QUIETER
CONDITIONS WORKING BACK INTO THE REGION TONIGHT.

A BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS IS WEAKENING AS IT ARRIVES OVER NH AS OF
THIS WRITING.  OUTSIDE OF SOME THICKENING MID CLOUDINESS...EXPECT A
FAIRLY QUIET MORNING.  SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR
THUNDER AT HIE/LEB/AUG/RCK WHERE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR VSBYS IS
POSSIBLE IN A HEAVY DOWNPOUR. WILL INCLUDE VCTS MENTION TO COVER THE
PERIOD MOST LIKELY TO SEE THIS SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY. THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STORMS TO BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE. ACTIVITY WILL
QUICKLY WANE THIS EVENING WITH PARTIAL CLEARING OVERNIGHT. GIVEN
SOME DAYTIME RAINFALL AND ONLY MODEST DRYING OVERNIGHT...EXPECT FOG
WILL ONCE AGAIN IMPACT LEB AND HIE AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH IFR/LIFR
VSBYS.

WINDS: LIGHT WINDS WIL BECOME WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE TO
10G18KTS FOR THE DAY TODAY BEFORE DIMINISHING TO 5KTS OR LESS FROM
THE NORTHWEST THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY...WITH A DIURNAL INCREASE IN
CUMULUS COVERAGE...AND PERHAPS A SPRINKLE/SHOWER AT HIE.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR SUN NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH VLY FOG
POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT. SCT SHRA/TSRA WILL IMPACT MOST OF THE
TERMINALS LATE MON AND MON NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...EXPECT WAVES AND SOUTHERLY WINDS TO REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT LEVELS THROUGH SUNDAY DESPITE INCREASING SOMEWHAT
DURING THE DAY TODAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.

LONG TERM...PERSISTENT SW FLOW SUNDAY AND MONDAY COULD BRING
HIGHER SWELLS TO THE COASTLINE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT....AND A
SURGE OF SW WINDS COULD APPROACH SCA LVLS FOR A SHORT PERIOD MON
NIGHT.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION...ARNOTT



000
FXUS61 KGYX 011025 AAB
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
625 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY...BRINGING ANOTHER THREAT
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY DROP OFF
A LITTLE MORE BEHIND THIS FRONT. SUNDAY SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. WEAK LOW PRESSURE
ALOFT...SITUATED OVER QUEBEC...WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND SHOWERS OR
STORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY. THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD
WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED WITH A FEW ROUNDS OF SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
553AM UPDATE: WILL DIMINISH EARLY MORNING POPS SOME BASED ON
WEAKENING RADAR TREND SEEN WITH INITIAL ECHOES AS THEY ATTEMPT TO
WORK THROUGH NORTHERN VERMONT AND OUTRUN ANY MEANINGFUL MUCAPE
FROM RECENT RAP ANALYSES. EXPECT THAT WE/LL NEED A LITTLE MORNING
SUN AND RESULTANT INSTABILITY TO GET ACTIVITY TO INCREASE IN
COVERAGE/INTENSITY. HAVE ALSO LOWERED TEMPS SOME AND INCLUDED SOME
FOG THROUGH 12Z BASED ON EARLY MORNING OBSERVATIONS SHOWING
LOCALLY DENSE FOG IN THE NORTHERN VALLEYS.

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON FOR NORTHERN NH AND NORTHERN MAINE.

CURRENT PATTERN: CYCLONIC FLOW THROUGH THE COLUMN HAS FULLY
ENVELOPED THE REGION AS OF THIS WRITING WITH EARLY MORNING WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING VERTICALLY STACKED LOW CENTERED OVER HUDSON
BAY. A PARADE OF LOCAL VORTICITY MAXIMA CAN ALSO BE SEEN ROTATING
AROUND THIS FEATURE...WITH A BAND OF ENHANCED MOISTURE STRETCHING
FROM CENTRAL ONTARIO SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES...AND JUST STARTING TO SCRAPE NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. A
SHORTWAVE IS COLLOCATED WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS
MOISTURE...WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT SPARKING A FEW SHOWERS /AND
EMBEDDED THUNDER/ ACROSS NEW YORK INTO FAR WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.
THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE NORTH OF NEW ENGLAND WILL CONTINUE TO RIDE
NORTH AND EAST...MAKING WAY FOR ANOTHER WAVE...NOW OVER SOUTHERN
ONTARIO...TO PULL EAST AND BE THE FOCUS FOR OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER
TODAY. FORECAST CHALLENGES CENTER AROUND PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL
WITH THIS FEATURE AS WELL AS THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY STRONG/SEVERE
CONVECTION.

THROUGH DAYBREAK: SHOWERS SEEN ON REGIONAL 88D MOSAIC CONTINUE TO
MAKE A RUN AT NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE.  EXPECT THAT WE/LL HAVE TO
WAIT FOR THE ACTIVITY IN NEW YORK TO MOVE INTO THE REGION FOR ANY
APPRECIABLE PRECIPITATION...WITH PERHAPS A SPRINKLE POSSIBLE OVER
COOS COUNTY NH THROUGH DAYBREAK.  OTHERWISE...JUST SOME MID LEVEL
CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOWER 50S NORTH THROUGH THE
LOWER 60 OVER SOUTHERN NH.

TODAY: ATTENTION TURNS TO UPSTREAM PV ANOMALY MENTIONED ABOVE.  THIS
FEATURE LOOKS TO SHARPEN AS IT ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH AND PUSH INTO NEW ENGLAND.  THIS FEATURE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED
BY 50KT JET AT H5 WITH A 1.5PV 85KT SPEED MAX.  MODEST HEIGHT FALLS
AND INCREASING DPVA WILL WORK IN TANDEM WITH MODEST MOISTURE
INCREASE AND GOOD LAPSE RATES THROUGH H5 /GIVEN COOL POOL ALOFT/
TO ALLOW CONVECTION CURRENTLY OVER NEW YORK TO EXPAND AS IT MOVES
THROUGH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...BEING JOINED LATER BY ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS/WEAK SURFACE FRONT.
THUS...EXPECT SHRAS TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE...WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER
BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD AS INSTABILITY GROWS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS
IMPRESSIVE...APPROACHING 50KTS IN THE 0-6KM LAYER WITH
LONG AND STRAIGHT...WEST-EAST ORIENTED HODOGRAPHS FAVORING MORE
CELLULAR STRUCTURE TO CELLS GIVEN ORTHOGONAL ORIENTATION OF THE
SHEAR TO THE FORCING FEATURE /FRONT/. INSTABILITY WILL BE
SOMEWHAT LIMITED GIVEN ONLY MODEST LLEVEL MOISTURE RECOVERY...BUT
1K J/KG MLCAPE APPEARS POSSIBLE TO ATTAIN OVER FAR NORTHERN NH /
NW MAINE CLOSER TO THE BEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.

SEVERE WEATHER THREATS:  PROFILES HAVE AN INVERTED-V LOOK TO
THEM...WHICH...WITH STRONG WINDS ALOFT SUGGEST A DAMAGING WIND
THREAT...ALTHOUGH MORE LOCALIZED GIVEN THE MORE CELLULAR NATURE TO
THE CONVECTION.  WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS 8-9KFT HIGHLIGHT A HAIL
THREAT AS WELL.  TOR THREAT VERY LOW GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED
INVERTED-V PROFILES.  OVERALL THREAT WILL BE TIED PRIMARILY TO
INSTABILITY...AND THEREFORE WILL BE GREATEST OVER FAR NORTHERN NH
AND NW MAINE...WHICH IS RIGHT IN LINE WITH THE NEW SWODY1 FROM SPC.
WILL INCLUDE ENHANCED WORDING IN THESE LOCATIONS...WITH LESS THUNDER
EMPHASIS FURTHER SOUTH. AND...WHILE THE ACTIVITY FURTHER SOUTH
WILL LIKELY NOT BE SEVERE...WILL MENTION GUSTY WINDS HERE AS WELL
GIVEN INVERTED-V NATURE TO THE PROFILES.

TEMPERATURES:  THE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER WILL SPELL A COOLER
DAY...PARTICULARLY OVER NORTHERN AREAS WHERE CONVECTION WILL BE MOST
WIDESPREAD.  HERE...HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE 70S.  DOWNSLOPE
WESTERLIES WILL PROMOTE HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S OVER SOUTHEASTERN NH
AND EXTREME SW MAINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE.

PATTERN/IMPLICATIONS: WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF
LONGWAVE TROUGH CENTERED OVER HUDSON BAY. OUR WEATHER WILL BE AT
THE MERCY OF SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THIS FEATURE...WITH A
RELATIVE LULL LIKELY FOR TONIGHT-SUNDAY BEHIND THE STRONGER WAVE
ON SATURDAY AND PRECEDING ANOTHER STRONG WAVE ON MONDAY. DESPITE
RELATIVELY LOW HEIGHTS IN THE TROUGH...LLEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN NEAR NORMAL PROMOTING SURFACE TEMPERATURES NOT TOO FAR FROM
SEASONAL NORMS.

TONIGHT: ANY AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD VERY QUICKLY WANE
WITH PARTIAL CLEARING...ALTHOUGH WITH DEEPER MOISTURE POOL CLOSER TO
THE REGION...DO EXPECT SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS TO HANG AROUND
THROUGH THE NIGHT.  LOWS LOOK NOT ALL THAT DISSIMILAR TO TONIGHT
WITH MODEST COOLING TO THE LLEVEL AIRMASS BEHIND DEPARTING COLD
FRONT.  GIVEN AT LEAST SOME RAIN ACROSS THE REGION...AND ONLY MODEST
COOLING BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT...SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG
LOOKS TO BE A GOOD BET.

SUNDAY:  DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION AND WHILE
THERE WILL BE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SYNOPTIC FORCING FOR ASCENT...MID
LEVEL COLD POOL /T5S NEAR -15C/ AND DECENT MOISTURE ALONG SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE HUDSON BAY VORTEX WILL LIKELY ALLOW SOME AFTERNOON
SHOWERS TO SPARK OVER THE MOUNTAINS.  ACTIVITY LOOKS WEAKER AND FAR
LESS WIDESPREAD THAN ON SATURDAY...SO REALLY NOT A BAD DAY EVEN UP
NORTH.  OVER SOUTHERN NH/SOUTHWEST MAINE...EXPECT A DIURNAL INCREASE
IN CLOUDS...BUT NO PRECIPITATION.  TEMPS ALOFT WILL BE ABOUT 2C
COOLER THAN ON SATURDAY...BUT WITH LIKELY A BIT MORE SUN...SO HIGH
TEMPERATURES LOOK SIMILAR TO THE DAY PREVIOUS...PERHAPS A DEGREE/TWO
COOLER FOR SOUTHEAST NH AND SW MAINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER IN THE EXTENDED WILL BE THREAT OF STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

500MB PATTERN IS TRENDING TOWARD A MODIFIED +PNA PATTERN WITH
CLOSED LOW STARTING OUR OVER HUDSON AROUND 60N AND EVENTUALLY
SHIFT SWD INTO SRN QUEBEC BY MID WEEK BEFORE SHIFTING THE NE AND
WEAKENING AS IT RUNS INTO N ATLANTIC RIDGING. THIS WILL PULL SOME
COOLER AIR SWD BY MID TO LATE THIS WEEK...AND WILL KEEP THINGS
SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED AS IT PRODUCES CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. TOWARD NEXT
WEEKEND THE CORE OF THE JET WILL SHIFT BACK TO THE N...AND COULD
SEE THINGS START TO WARM AGAIN.

SUN NIGHT WILL START WITH BUILDING 500MB RIDGING OVER ME AN THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES WHICH WILL ALLOW FLOW TO SHIFT TO THE SW ANDTAP
INTO WARM AIR...SFC AND MID-LVL JUST TO OUR SW. AFTER AN MAINLY
CLEAR AND SEASONABLY COOL SUN NIGHT MONDAY WILL WARM UP WITH
SHRA/TSRA MOVING INTO NW ZONES IN THE AFTERNOON. AS THE 500 MB
CLOSED LOW DEEPENS TO THE WEST AND HEIGHTS FALL WILL SEE DECENT
INSTABILITY DEVELOP ALONG WITH INCREASED FLOW ALOFT. NAM IS
SUGGESTING BORDERLINE EML MOVING IN OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN BY LATE
MON AFT INTO MON EVE...WHICH WOULD AID IN THE FORMATION OF SEVER
STORMS. AT ANY RATE THUNDERSTORMS...WILL BE A GOOD BET AWAY FROM
THE COAST MON AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. ANOTHER WEAK WAVE SWINGS
AROUND THE CLOSED LOW ON TUE...SO ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRA AND TSRA
POSSIBLE...AS THE COOLER AIR WILL WORK IN BEHIND THIS WAVE
TUESDAY. WED THRU FRI WILL BE PARTLY SUNNY...BUT COLD AIR ALOFT
COULD PRODUCE SCT SHRA...MAYBE A TSRA EACH DAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE
MTNS.

TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT ON THE WARM SIDE MONDAY...AS HIGHS
WILL SURGE BACK INTO THE 85-90 RANGE IN MANY INLAND SPOTS...BUT
SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER ON THE COAST...AND ESPECIALLY THE
MID-COAST WHERE SW FLOW INCREASES. IT WILL BE A WARM AND MUGGY MON
NIGHT...WITH TEMPS AND HUMIDITY ON THE HIGHER SIDE TUE...BUT MORE
CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGREES. ONCE THE FRONT COMES
THRU IN THE AFTERNOON LOOK FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS TO DROP TO AROUND
NORMAL...LOW-MID 50S N...TO THE LOW 60S IN SRN NH...WITH HIGHS
RUNNING IN THE LOW 70S TO AROUND 80 THRU THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION TODAY WITH QUIETER
CONDITIONS WORKING BACK INTO THE REGION TONIGHT.

A BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS IS WEAKENING AS IT ARRIVES OVER NH AS OF
THIS WRITING.  OUTSIDE OF SOME THICKENING MID CLOUDINESS...EXPECT A
FAIRLY QUIET MORNING.  SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR
THUNDER AT HIE/LEB/AUG/RCK WHERE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR VSBYS IS
POSSIBLE IN A HEAVY DOWNPOUR. WILL INCLUDE VCTS MENTION TO COVER THE
PERIOD MOST LIKELY TO SEE THIS SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY. THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STORMS TO BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE. ACTIVITY WILL
QUICKLY WANE THIS EVENING WITH PARTIAL CLEARING OVERNIGHT. GIVEN
SOME DAYTIME RAINFALL AND ONLY MODEST DRYING OVERNIGHT...EXPECT FOG
WILL ONCE AGAIN IMPACT LEB AND HIE AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH IFR/LIFR
VSBYS.

WINDS: LIGHT WINDS WIL BECOME WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE TO
10G18KTS FOR THE DAY TODAY BEFORE DIMINISHING TO 5KTS OR LESS FROM
THE NORTHWEST THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY...WITH A DIURNAL INCREASE IN
CUMULUS COVERAGE...AND PERHAPS A SPRINKLE/SHOWER AT HIE.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR SUN NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH VLY FOG
POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT. SCT SHRA/TSRA WILL IMPACT MOST OF THE
TERMINALS LATE MON AND MON NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...EXPECT WAVES AND SOUTHERLY WINDS TO REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT LEVELS THROUGH SUNDAY DESPITE INCREASING SOMEWHAT
DURING THE DAY TODAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.

LONG TERM...PERSISTENT SW FLOW SUNDAY AND MONDAY COULD BRING
HIGHER SWELLS TO THE COASTLINE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT....AND A
SURGE OF SW WINDS COULD APPROACH SCA LVLS FOR A SHORT PERIOD MON
NIGHT.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION...ARNOTT



000
FXUS61 KGYX 011025 AAB
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
625 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY...BRINGING ANOTHER THREAT
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY DROP OFF
A LITTLE MORE BEHIND THIS FRONT. SUNDAY SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. WEAK LOW PRESSURE
ALOFT...SITUATED OVER QUEBEC...WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND SHOWERS OR
STORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY. THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD
WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED WITH A FEW ROUNDS OF SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
553AM UPDATE: WILL DIMINISH EARLY MORNING POPS SOME BASED ON
WEAKENING RADAR TREND SEEN WITH INITIAL ECHOES AS THEY ATTEMPT TO
WORK THROUGH NORTHERN VERMONT AND OUTRUN ANY MEANINGFUL MUCAPE
FROM RECENT RAP ANALYSES. EXPECT THAT WE/LL NEED A LITTLE MORNING
SUN AND RESULTANT INSTABILITY TO GET ACTIVITY TO INCREASE IN
COVERAGE/INTENSITY. HAVE ALSO LOWERED TEMPS SOME AND INCLUDED SOME
FOG THROUGH 12Z BASED ON EARLY MORNING OBSERVATIONS SHOWING
LOCALLY DENSE FOG IN THE NORTHERN VALLEYS.

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON FOR NORTHERN NH AND NORTHERN MAINE.

CURRENT PATTERN: CYCLONIC FLOW THROUGH THE COLUMN HAS FULLY
ENVELOPED THE REGION AS OF THIS WRITING WITH EARLY MORNING WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING VERTICALLY STACKED LOW CENTERED OVER HUDSON
BAY. A PARADE OF LOCAL VORTICITY MAXIMA CAN ALSO BE SEEN ROTATING
AROUND THIS FEATURE...WITH A BAND OF ENHANCED MOISTURE STRETCHING
FROM CENTRAL ONTARIO SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES...AND JUST STARTING TO SCRAPE NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. A
SHORTWAVE IS COLLOCATED WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS
MOISTURE...WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT SPARKING A FEW SHOWERS /AND
EMBEDDED THUNDER/ ACROSS NEW YORK INTO FAR WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.
THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE NORTH OF NEW ENGLAND WILL CONTINUE TO RIDE
NORTH AND EAST...MAKING WAY FOR ANOTHER WAVE...NOW OVER SOUTHERN
ONTARIO...TO PULL EAST AND BE THE FOCUS FOR OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER
TODAY. FORECAST CHALLENGES CENTER AROUND PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL
WITH THIS FEATURE AS WELL AS THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY STRONG/SEVERE
CONVECTION.

THROUGH DAYBREAK: SHOWERS SEEN ON REGIONAL 88D MOSAIC CONTINUE TO
MAKE A RUN AT NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE.  EXPECT THAT WE/LL HAVE TO
WAIT FOR THE ACTIVITY IN NEW YORK TO MOVE INTO THE REGION FOR ANY
APPRECIABLE PRECIPITATION...WITH PERHAPS A SPRINKLE POSSIBLE OVER
COOS COUNTY NH THROUGH DAYBREAK.  OTHERWISE...JUST SOME MID LEVEL
CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOWER 50S NORTH THROUGH THE
LOWER 60 OVER SOUTHERN NH.

TODAY: ATTENTION TURNS TO UPSTREAM PV ANOMALY MENTIONED ABOVE.  THIS
FEATURE LOOKS TO SHARPEN AS IT ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH AND PUSH INTO NEW ENGLAND.  THIS FEATURE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED
BY 50KT JET AT H5 WITH A 1.5PV 85KT SPEED MAX.  MODEST HEIGHT FALLS
AND INCREASING DPVA WILL WORK IN TANDEM WITH MODEST MOISTURE
INCREASE AND GOOD LAPSE RATES THROUGH H5 /GIVEN COOL POOL ALOFT/
TO ALLOW CONVECTION CURRENTLY OVER NEW YORK TO EXPAND AS IT MOVES
THROUGH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...BEING JOINED LATER BY ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS/WEAK SURFACE FRONT.
THUS...EXPECT SHRAS TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE...WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER
BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD AS INSTABILITY GROWS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS
IMPRESSIVE...APPROACHING 50KTS IN THE 0-6KM LAYER WITH
LONG AND STRAIGHT...WEST-EAST ORIENTED HODOGRAPHS FAVORING MORE
CELLULAR STRUCTURE TO CELLS GIVEN ORTHOGONAL ORIENTATION OF THE
SHEAR TO THE FORCING FEATURE /FRONT/. INSTABILITY WILL BE
SOMEWHAT LIMITED GIVEN ONLY MODEST LLEVEL MOISTURE RECOVERY...BUT
1K J/KG MLCAPE APPEARS POSSIBLE TO ATTAIN OVER FAR NORTHERN NH /
NW MAINE CLOSER TO THE BEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.

SEVERE WEATHER THREATS:  PROFILES HAVE AN INVERTED-V LOOK TO
THEM...WHICH...WITH STRONG WINDS ALOFT SUGGEST A DAMAGING WIND
THREAT...ALTHOUGH MORE LOCALIZED GIVEN THE MORE CELLULAR NATURE TO
THE CONVECTION.  WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS 8-9KFT HIGHLIGHT A HAIL
THREAT AS WELL.  TOR THREAT VERY LOW GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED
INVERTED-V PROFILES.  OVERALL THREAT WILL BE TIED PRIMARILY TO
INSTABILITY...AND THEREFORE WILL BE GREATEST OVER FAR NORTHERN NH
AND NW MAINE...WHICH IS RIGHT IN LINE WITH THE NEW SWODY1 FROM SPC.
WILL INCLUDE ENHANCED WORDING IN THESE LOCATIONS...WITH LESS THUNDER
EMPHASIS FURTHER SOUTH. AND...WHILE THE ACTIVITY FURTHER SOUTH
WILL LIKELY NOT BE SEVERE...WILL MENTION GUSTY WINDS HERE AS WELL
GIVEN INVERTED-V NATURE TO THE PROFILES.

TEMPERATURES:  THE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER WILL SPELL A COOLER
DAY...PARTICULARLY OVER NORTHERN AREAS WHERE CONVECTION WILL BE MOST
WIDESPREAD.  HERE...HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE 70S.  DOWNSLOPE
WESTERLIES WILL PROMOTE HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S OVER SOUTHEASTERN NH
AND EXTREME SW MAINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE.

PATTERN/IMPLICATIONS: WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF
LONGWAVE TROUGH CENTERED OVER HUDSON BAY. OUR WEATHER WILL BE AT
THE MERCY OF SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THIS FEATURE...WITH A
RELATIVE LULL LIKELY FOR TONIGHT-SUNDAY BEHIND THE STRONGER WAVE
ON SATURDAY AND PRECEDING ANOTHER STRONG WAVE ON MONDAY. DESPITE
RELATIVELY LOW HEIGHTS IN THE TROUGH...LLEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN NEAR NORMAL PROMOTING SURFACE TEMPERATURES NOT TOO FAR FROM
SEASONAL NORMS.

TONIGHT: ANY AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD VERY QUICKLY WANE
WITH PARTIAL CLEARING...ALTHOUGH WITH DEEPER MOISTURE POOL CLOSER TO
THE REGION...DO EXPECT SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS TO HANG AROUND
THROUGH THE NIGHT.  LOWS LOOK NOT ALL THAT DISSIMILAR TO TONIGHT
WITH MODEST COOLING TO THE LLEVEL AIRMASS BEHIND DEPARTING COLD
FRONT.  GIVEN AT LEAST SOME RAIN ACROSS THE REGION...AND ONLY MODEST
COOLING BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT...SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG
LOOKS TO BE A GOOD BET.

SUNDAY:  DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION AND WHILE
THERE WILL BE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SYNOPTIC FORCING FOR ASCENT...MID
LEVEL COLD POOL /T5S NEAR -15C/ AND DECENT MOISTURE ALONG SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE HUDSON BAY VORTEX WILL LIKELY ALLOW SOME AFTERNOON
SHOWERS TO SPARK OVER THE MOUNTAINS.  ACTIVITY LOOKS WEAKER AND FAR
LESS WIDESPREAD THAN ON SATURDAY...SO REALLY NOT A BAD DAY EVEN UP
NORTH.  OVER SOUTHERN NH/SOUTHWEST MAINE...EXPECT A DIURNAL INCREASE
IN CLOUDS...BUT NO PRECIPITATION.  TEMPS ALOFT WILL BE ABOUT 2C
COOLER THAN ON SATURDAY...BUT WITH LIKELY A BIT MORE SUN...SO HIGH
TEMPERATURES LOOK SIMILAR TO THE DAY PREVIOUS...PERHAPS A DEGREE/TWO
COOLER FOR SOUTHEAST NH AND SW MAINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER IN THE EXTENDED WILL BE THREAT OF STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

500MB PATTERN IS TRENDING TOWARD A MODIFIED +PNA PATTERN WITH
CLOSED LOW STARTING OUR OVER HUDSON AROUND 60N AND EVENTUALLY
SHIFT SWD INTO SRN QUEBEC BY MID WEEK BEFORE SHIFTING THE NE AND
WEAKENING AS IT RUNS INTO N ATLANTIC RIDGING. THIS WILL PULL SOME
COOLER AIR SWD BY MID TO LATE THIS WEEK...AND WILL KEEP THINGS
SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED AS IT PRODUCES CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. TOWARD NEXT
WEEKEND THE CORE OF THE JET WILL SHIFT BACK TO THE N...AND COULD
SEE THINGS START TO WARM AGAIN.

SUN NIGHT WILL START WITH BUILDING 500MB RIDGING OVER ME AN THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES WHICH WILL ALLOW FLOW TO SHIFT TO THE SW ANDTAP
INTO WARM AIR...SFC AND MID-LVL JUST TO OUR SW. AFTER AN MAINLY
CLEAR AND SEASONABLY COOL SUN NIGHT MONDAY WILL WARM UP WITH
SHRA/TSRA MOVING INTO NW ZONES IN THE AFTERNOON. AS THE 500 MB
CLOSED LOW DEEPENS TO THE WEST AND HEIGHTS FALL WILL SEE DECENT
INSTABILITY DEVELOP ALONG WITH INCREASED FLOW ALOFT. NAM IS
SUGGESTING BORDERLINE EML MOVING IN OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN BY LATE
MON AFT INTO MON EVE...WHICH WOULD AID IN THE FORMATION OF SEVER
STORMS. AT ANY RATE THUNDERSTORMS...WILL BE A GOOD BET AWAY FROM
THE COAST MON AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. ANOTHER WEAK WAVE SWINGS
AROUND THE CLOSED LOW ON TUE...SO ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRA AND TSRA
POSSIBLE...AS THE COOLER AIR WILL WORK IN BEHIND THIS WAVE
TUESDAY. WED THRU FRI WILL BE PARTLY SUNNY...BUT COLD AIR ALOFT
COULD PRODUCE SCT SHRA...MAYBE A TSRA EACH DAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE
MTNS.

TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT ON THE WARM SIDE MONDAY...AS HIGHS
WILL SURGE BACK INTO THE 85-90 RANGE IN MANY INLAND SPOTS...BUT
SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER ON THE COAST...AND ESPECIALLY THE
MID-COAST WHERE SW FLOW INCREASES. IT WILL BE A WARM AND MUGGY MON
NIGHT...WITH TEMPS AND HUMIDITY ON THE HIGHER SIDE TUE...BUT MORE
CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGREES. ONCE THE FRONT COMES
THRU IN THE AFTERNOON LOOK FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS TO DROP TO AROUND
NORMAL...LOW-MID 50S N...TO THE LOW 60S IN SRN NH...WITH HIGHS
RUNNING IN THE LOW 70S TO AROUND 80 THRU THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION TODAY WITH QUIETER
CONDITIONS WORKING BACK INTO THE REGION TONIGHT.

A BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS IS WEAKENING AS IT ARRIVES OVER NH AS OF
THIS WRITING.  OUTSIDE OF SOME THICKENING MID CLOUDINESS...EXPECT A
FAIRLY QUIET MORNING.  SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR
THUNDER AT HIE/LEB/AUG/RCK WHERE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR VSBYS IS
POSSIBLE IN A HEAVY DOWNPOUR. WILL INCLUDE VCTS MENTION TO COVER THE
PERIOD MOST LIKELY TO SEE THIS SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY. THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STORMS TO BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE. ACTIVITY WILL
QUICKLY WANE THIS EVENING WITH PARTIAL CLEARING OVERNIGHT. GIVEN
SOME DAYTIME RAINFALL AND ONLY MODEST DRYING OVERNIGHT...EXPECT FOG
WILL ONCE AGAIN IMPACT LEB AND HIE AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH IFR/LIFR
VSBYS.

WINDS: LIGHT WINDS WIL BECOME WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE TO
10G18KTS FOR THE DAY TODAY BEFORE DIMINISHING TO 5KTS OR LESS FROM
THE NORTHWEST THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY...WITH A DIURNAL INCREASE IN
CUMULUS COVERAGE...AND PERHAPS A SPRINKLE/SHOWER AT HIE.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR SUN NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH VLY FOG
POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT. SCT SHRA/TSRA WILL IMPACT MOST OF THE
TERMINALS LATE MON AND MON NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...EXPECT WAVES AND SOUTHERLY WINDS TO REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT LEVELS THROUGH SUNDAY DESPITE INCREASING SOMEWHAT
DURING THE DAY TODAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.

LONG TERM...PERSISTENT SW FLOW SUNDAY AND MONDAY COULD BRING
HIGHER SWELLS TO THE COASTLINE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT....AND A
SURGE OF SW WINDS COULD APPROACH SCA LVLS FOR A SHORT PERIOD MON
NIGHT.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION...ARNOTT




000
FXUS61 KGYX 010955 AAA
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
555 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY...BRINGING ANOTHER THREAT
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY DROP OFF
A LITTLE MORE BEHIND THIS FRONT. SUNDAY SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. WEAK LOW PRESSURE
ALOFT...SITUATED OVER QUEBEC...WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND SHOWERS OR
STORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY. THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD
WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED WITH A FEW ROUNDS OF SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
553AM UPDATE: WILL DIMINISH EARLY MORNING POPS SOME BASED ON
WEAKENING RADAR TREND SEEN WITH INITIAL ECHOES AS THEY ATTEMPT TO
WORK THROUGH NORTHERN VERMONT AND OUTRUN ANY MEANINGFUL MUCAPE
FROM RECENT RAP ANALYSES. EXPECT THAT WE/LL NEED A LITTLE MORNING
SUN AND RESULTANT INSTABILITY TO GET ACTIVITY TO INCREASE IN
COVERAGE/INTENSITY. HAVE ALSO LOWERED TEMPS SOME AND INCLUDED SOME
FOG THROUGH 12Z BASED ON EARLY MORNING OBSERVATIONS SHOWING
LOCALLY DENSE FOG IN THE NORTHERN VALLEYS.

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON FOR NORTHERN NH AND NORTHERN MAINE.

CURRENT PATTERN: CYCLONIC FLOW THROUGH THE COLUMN HAS FULLY
ENVELOPED THE REGION AS OF THIS WRITING WITH EARLY MORNING WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING VERTICALLY STACKED LOW CENTERED OVER HUDSON
BAY. A PARADE OF LOCAL VORTICITY MAXIMA CAN ALSO BE SEEN ROTATING
AROUND THIS FEATURE...WITH A BAND OF ENHANCED MOISTURE STRETCHING
FROM CENTRAL ONTARIO SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES...AND JUST STARTING TO SCRAPE NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. A
SHORTWAVE IS COLLOCATED WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS
MOISTURE...WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT SPARKING A FEW SHOWERS /AND
EMBEDDED THUNDER/ ACROSS NEW YORK INTO FAR WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.
THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE NORTH OF NEW ENGLAND WILL CONTINUE TO RIDE
NORTH AND EAST...MAKING WAY FOR ANOTHER WAVE...NOW OVER SOUTHERN
ONTARIO...TO PULL EAST AND BE THE FOCUS FOR OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER
TODAY. FORECAST CHALLENGES CENTER AROUND PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL
WITH THIS FEATURE AS WELL AS THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY STRONG/SEVERE
CONVECTION.

THROUGH DAYBREAK: SHOWERS SEEN ON REGIONAL 88D MOSAIC CONTINUE TO
MAKE A RUN AT NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE.  EXPECT THAT WE/LL HAVE TO
WAIT FOR THE ACTIVITY IN NEW YORK TO MOVE INTO THE REGION FOR ANY
APPRECIABLE PRECIPITATION...WITH PERHAPS A SPRINKLE POSSIBLE OVER
COOS COUNTY NH THROUGH DAYBREAK.  OTHERWISE...JUST SOME MID LEVEL
CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOWER 50S NORTH THROUGH THE
LOWER 60 OVER SOUTHERN NH.

TODAY: ATTENTION TURNS TO UPSTREAM PV ANOMALY MENTIONED ABOVE.  THIS
FEATURE LOOKS TO SHARPEN AS IT ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH AND PUSH INTO NEW ENGLAND.  THIS FEATURE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED
BY 50KT JET AT H5 WITH A 1.5PV 85KT SPEED MAX.  MODEST HEIGHT FALLS
AND INCREASING DPVA WILL WORK IN TANDEM WITH MODEST MOISTURE
INCREASE AND GOOD LAPSE RATES THROUGH H5 /GIVEN COOL POOL ALOFT/
TO ALLOW CONVECTION CURRENTLY OVER NEW YORK TO EXPAND AS IT MOVES
THROUGH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...BEING JOINED LATER BY ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS/WEAK SURFACE FRONT.
THUS...EXPECT SHRAS TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE...WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER
BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD AS INSTABILITY GROWS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS
IMPRESSIVE...APPROACHING 50KTS IN THE 0-6KM LAYER WITH
LONG AND STRAIGHT...WEST-EAST ORIENTED HODOGRAPHS FAVORING MORE
CELLULAR STRUCTURE TO CELLS GIVEN ORTHOGONAL ORIENTATION OF THE
SHEAR TO THE FORCING FEATURE /FRONT/. INSTABILITY WILL BE
SOMEWHAT LIMITED GIVEN ONLY MODEST LLEVEL MOISTURE RECOVERY...BUT
1K J/KG MLCAPE APPEARS POSSIBLE TO ATTAIN OVER FAR NORTHERN NH /
NW MAINE CLOSER TO THE BEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.

SEVERE WEATHER THREATS:  PROFILES HAVE AN INVERTED-V LOOK TO
THEM...WHICH...WITH STRONG WINDS ALOFT SUGGEST A DAMAGING WIND
THREAT...ALTHOUGH MORE LOCALIZED GIVEN THE MORE CELLULAR NATURE TO
THE CONVECTION.  WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS 8-9KFT HIGHLIGHT A HAIL
THREAT AS WELL.  TOR THREAT VERY LOW GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED
INVERTED-V PROFILES.  OVERALL THREAT WILL BE TIED PRIMARILY TO
INSTABILITY...AND THEREFORE WILL BE GREATEST OVER FAR NORTHERN NH
AND NW MAINE...WHICH IS RIGHT IN LINE WITH THE NEW SWODY1 FROM SPC.
WILL INCLUDE ENHANCED WORDING IN THESE LOCATIONS...WITH LESS THUNDER
EMPHASIS FURTHER SOUTH. AND...WHILE THE ACTIVITY FURTHER SOUTH
WILL LIKELY NOT BE SEVERE...WILL MENTION GUSTY WINDS HERE AS WELL
GIVEN INVERTED-V NATURE TO THE PROFILES.

TEMPERATURES:  THE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER WILL SPELL A COOLER
DAY...PARTICULARLY OVER NORTHERN AREAS WHERE CONVECTION WILL BE MOST
WIDESPREAD.  HERE...HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE 70S.  DOWNSLOPE
WESTERLIES WILL PROMOTE HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S OVER SOUTHEASTERN NH
AND EXTREME SW MAINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE.

PATTERN/IMPLICATIONS: WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF
LONGWAVE TROUGH CENTERED OVER HUDSON BAY. OUR WEATHER WILL BE AT
THE MERCY OF SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THIS FEATURE...WITH A
RELATIVE LULL LIKELY FOR TONIGHT-SUNDAY BEHIND THE STRONGER WAVE
ON SATURDAY AND PRECEDING ANOTHER STRONG WAVE ON MONDAY. DESPITE
RELATIVELY LOW HEIGHTS IN THE TROUGH...LLEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN NEAR NORMAL PROMOTING SURFACE TEMPERATURES NOT TOO FAR FROM
SEASONAL NORMS.

TONIGHT: ANY AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD VERY QUICKLY WANE
WITH PARTIAL CLEARING...ALTHOUGH WITH DEEPER MOISTURE POOL CLOSER TO
THE REGION...DO EXPECT SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS TO HANG AROUND
THROUGH THE NIGHT.  LOWS LOOK NOT ALL THAT DISSIMILAR TO TONIGHT
WITH MODEST COOLING TO THE LLEVEL AIRMASS BEHIND DEPARTING COLD
FRONT.  GIVEN AT LEAST SOME RAIN ACROSS THE REGION...AND ONLY MODEST
COOLING BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT...SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG
LOOKS TO BE A GOOD BET.

SUNDAY:  DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION AND WHILE
THERE WILL BE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SYNOPTIC FORCING FOR ASCENT...MID
LEVEL COLD POOL /T5S NEAR -15C/ AND DECENT MOISTURE ALONG SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE HUDSON BAY VORTEX WILL LIKELY ALLOW SOME AFTERNOON
SHOWERS TO SPARK OVER THE MOUNTAINS.  ACTIVITY LOOKS WEAKER AND FAR
LESS WIDESPREAD THAN ON SATURDAY...SO REALLY NOT A BAD DAY EVEN UP
NORTH.  OVER SOUTHERN NH/SOUTHWEST MAINE...EXPECT A DIURNAL INCREASE
IN CLOUDS...BUT NO PRECIPITATION.  TEMPS ALOFT WILL BE ABOUT 2C
COOLER THAN ON SATURDAY...BUT WITH LIKELY A BIT MORE SUN...SO HIGH
TEMPERATURES LOOK SIMILAR TO THE DAY PREVIOUS...PERHAPS A DEGREE/TWO
COOLER FOR SOUTHEAST NH AND SW MAINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER IN THE EXTENDED WILL BE THREAT OF STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

500MB PATTERN IS TRENDING TOWARD A MODIFIED +PNA PATTERN WITH
CLOSED LOW STARTING OUR OVER HUDSON AROUND 60N AND EVENTUALLY
SHIFT SWD INTO SRN QUEBEC BY MID WEEK BEFORE SHIFTING THE NE AND
WEAKENING AS IT RUNS INTO N ATLANTIC RIDGING. THIS WILL PULL SOME
COOLER AIR SWD BY MID TO LATE THIS WEEK...AND WILL KEEP THINGS
SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED AS IT PRODUCES CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. TOWARD NEXT
WEEKEND THE CORE OF THE JET WILL SHIFT BACK TO THE N...AND COULD
SEE THINGS START TO WARM AGAIN.

SUN NIGHT WILL START WITH BUILDING 500MB RIDGING OVER ME AN THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES WHICH WILL ALLOW FLOW TO SHIFT TO THE SW ANDTAP
INTO WARM AIR...SFC AND MID-LVL JUST TO OUR SW. AFTER AN MAINLY
CLEAR AND SEASONABLY COOL SUN NIGHT MONDAY WILL WARM UP WITH
SHRA/TSRA MOVING INTO NW ZONES IN THE AFTERNOON. AS THE 500 MB
CLOSED LOW DEEPENS TO THE WEST AND HEIGHTS FALL WILL SEE DECENT
INSTABILITY DEVELOP ALONG WITH INCREASED FLOW ALOFT. NAM IS
SUGGESTING BORDERLINE EML MOVING IN OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN BY LATE
MON AFT INTO MON EVE...WHICH WOULD AID IN THE FORMATION OF SEVER
STORMS. AT ANY RATE THUNDERSTORMS...WILL BE A GOOD BET AWAY FROM
THE COAST MON AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. ANOTHER WEAK WAVE SWINGS
AROUND THE CLOSED LOW ON TUE...SO ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRA AND TSRA
POSSIBLE...AS THE COOLER AIR WILL WORK IN BEHIND THIS WAVE
TUESDAY. WED THRU FRI WILL BE PARTLY SUNNY...BUT COLD AIR ALOFT
COULD PRODUCE SCT SHRA...MAYBE A TSRA EACH DAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE
MTNS.

TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT ON THE WARM SIDE MONDAY...AS HIGHS
WILL SURGE BACK INTO THE 85-90 RANGE IN MANY INLAND SPOTS...BUT
SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER ON THE COAST...AND ESPECIALLY THE
MID-COAST WHERE SW FLOW INCREASES. IT WILL BE A WARM AND MUGGY MON
NIGHT...WITH TEMPS AND HUMIDITY ON THE HIGHER SIDE TUE...BUT MORE
CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGREES. ONCE THE FRONT COMES
THRU IN THE AFTERNOON LOOK FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS TO DROP TO AROUND
NORMAL...LOW-MID 50S N...TO THE LOW 60S IN SRN NH...WITH HIGHS
RUNNING IN THE LOW 70S TO AROUND 80 THRU THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z SAT/...GENERALLY VFR WITH SOME INCREASING
MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS THROUGH DAYBREAK /ESPECIALLY NORTH/...WITH
SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG AT HIE BRINGING OCCASIONAL MVFR VSBYS.

FOR THE DAY ON SATURDAY...A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO THE
REGION WILL RESULT IN INCREASING CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE
AND NORTHWESTERN MAINE DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS AND CONTINUING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH MORE ISOLATED ACTIVITY FURTHER SOUTH.
THERE WILL LIKELY BE A FEW TEMPORARY PERIODS OF MVFR VSBYS/CIGS...
WITH IFR VSBYS POSSIBLE IN A FEW DOWNPOURS...BUT THE DAY WILL REMAIN
LARGELY VFR.  LEB/HIE/AUG/RKD STAND THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING
STORMS...WHICH COULD BE POTENTIALLY STRONG.  ANY CONVECTION WILL
QUICKLY WANE DURING THE EVENING WITH PARTIAL CLEARING EXPECTED.

WINDS: CALM-LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH DAYBREAK WILL BECOME WEST-
SOUTHWESTERLY 10G18KTS FOR THE DAY ON SATURDAY BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT
WEST-NORTHWESTERLY /5KTS OR LESS/ SATURDAY EVENING.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY...WITH A DIURNAL INCREASE IN
CUMULUS COVERAGE...AND PERHAPS A SPRINKLE/SHOWER AT HIE.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR SUN NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH VLY FOG
POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT. SCT SHRA/TSRA WILL IMPACT MOST OF THE
TERMINALS LATE MON AND MON NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...EXPECT WAVES AND SOUTHERLY WINDS TO REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT LEVELS THROUGH SUNDAY DESPITE INCREASING SOMEWHAT
DURING THE DAY TODAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.

LONG TERM...PERSISTENT SW FLOW SUNDAY AND MONDAY COULD BRING
HIGHER SWELLS TO THE COASTLINE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT....AND A
SURGE OF SW WINDS COULD APPROACH SCA LVLS FOR A SHORT PERIOD MON
NIGHT.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...ARNOTT
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...



000
FXUS61 KGYX 010955 AAA
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
555 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY...BRINGING ANOTHER THREAT
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY DROP OFF
A LITTLE MORE BEHIND THIS FRONT. SUNDAY SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. WEAK LOW PRESSURE
ALOFT...SITUATED OVER QUEBEC...WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND SHOWERS OR
STORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY. THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD
WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED WITH A FEW ROUNDS OF SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
553AM UPDATE: WILL DIMINISH EARLY MORNING POPS SOME BASED ON
WEAKENING RADAR TREND SEEN WITH INITIAL ECHOES AS THEY ATTEMPT TO
WORK THROUGH NORTHERN VERMONT AND OUTRUN ANY MEANINGFUL MUCAPE
FROM RECENT RAP ANALYSES. EXPECT THAT WE/LL NEED A LITTLE MORNING
SUN AND RESULTANT INSTABILITY TO GET ACTIVITY TO INCREASE IN
COVERAGE/INTENSITY. HAVE ALSO LOWERED TEMPS SOME AND INCLUDED SOME
FOG THROUGH 12Z BASED ON EARLY MORNING OBSERVATIONS SHOWING
LOCALLY DENSE FOG IN THE NORTHERN VALLEYS.

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON FOR NORTHERN NH AND NORTHERN MAINE.

CURRENT PATTERN: CYCLONIC FLOW THROUGH THE COLUMN HAS FULLY
ENVELOPED THE REGION AS OF THIS WRITING WITH EARLY MORNING WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING VERTICALLY STACKED LOW CENTERED OVER HUDSON
BAY. A PARADE OF LOCAL VORTICITY MAXIMA CAN ALSO BE SEEN ROTATING
AROUND THIS FEATURE...WITH A BAND OF ENHANCED MOISTURE STRETCHING
FROM CENTRAL ONTARIO SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES...AND JUST STARTING TO SCRAPE NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. A
SHORTWAVE IS COLLOCATED WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS
MOISTURE...WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT SPARKING A FEW SHOWERS /AND
EMBEDDED THUNDER/ ACROSS NEW YORK INTO FAR WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.
THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE NORTH OF NEW ENGLAND WILL CONTINUE TO RIDE
NORTH AND EAST...MAKING WAY FOR ANOTHER WAVE...NOW OVER SOUTHERN
ONTARIO...TO PULL EAST AND BE THE FOCUS FOR OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER
TODAY. FORECAST CHALLENGES CENTER AROUND PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL
WITH THIS FEATURE AS WELL AS THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY STRONG/SEVERE
CONVECTION.

THROUGH DAYBREAK: SHOWERS SEEN ON REGIONAL 88D MOSAIC CONTINUE TO
MAKE A RUN AT NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE.  EXPECT THAT WE/LL HAVE TO
WAIT FOR THE ACTIVITY IN NEW YORK TO MOVE INTO THE REGION FOR ANY
APPRECIABLE PRECIPITATION...WITH PERHAPS A SPRINKLE POSSIBLE OVER
COOS COUNTY NH THROUGH DAYBREAK.  OTHERWISE...JUST SOME MID LEVEL
CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOWER 50S NORTH THROUGH THE
LOWER 60 OVER SOUTHERN NH.

TODAY: ATTENTION TURNS TO UPSTREAM PV ANOMALY MENTIONED ABOVE.  THIS
FEATURE LOOKS TO SHARPEN AS IT ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH AND PUSH INTO NEW ENGLAND.  THIS FEATURE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED
BY 50KT JET AT H5 WITH A 1.5PV 85KT SPEED MAX.  MODEST HEIGHT FALLS
AND INCREASING DPVA WILL WORK IN TANDEM WITH MODEST MOISTURE
INCREASE AND GOOD LAPSE RATES THROUGH H5 /GIVEN COOL POOL ALOFT/
TO ALLOW CONVECTION CURRENTLY OVER NEW YORK TO EXPAND AS IT MOVES
THROUGH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...BEING JOINED LATER BY ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS/WEAK SURFACE FRONT.
THUS...EXPECT SHRAS TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE...WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER
BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD AS INSTABILITY GROWS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS
IMPRESSIVE...APPROACHING 50KTS IN THE 0-6KM LAYER WITH
LONG AND STRAIGHT...WEST-EAST ORIENTED HODOGRAPHS FAVORING MORE
CELLULAR STRUCTURE TO CELLS GIVEN ORTHOGONAL ORIENTATION OF THE
SHEAR TO THE FORCING FEATURE /FRONT/. INSTABILITY WILL BE
SOMEWHAT LIMITED GIVEN ONLY MODEST LLEVEL MOISTURE RECOVERY...BUT
1K J/KG MLCAPE APPEARS POSSIBLE TO ATTAIN OVER FAR NORTHERN NH /
NW MAINE CLOSER TO THE BEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.

SEVERE WEATHER THREATS:  PROFILES HAVE AN INVERTED-V LOOK TO
THEM...WHICH...WITH STRONG WINDS ALOFT SUGGEST A DAMAGING WIND
THREAT...ALTHOUGH MORE LOCALIZED GIVEN THE MORE CELLULAR NATURE TO
THE CONVECTION.  WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS 8-9KFT HIGHLIGHT A HAIL
THREAT AS WELL.  TOR THREAT VERY LOW GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED
INVERTED-V PROFILES.  OVERALL THREAT WILL BE TIED PRIMARILY TO
INSTABILITY...AND THEREFORE WILL BE GREATEST OVER FAR NORTHERN NH
AND NW MAINE...WHICH IS RIGHT IN LINE WITH THE NEW SWODY1 FROM SPC.
WILL INCLUDE ENHANCED WORDING IN THESE LOCATIONS...WITH LESS THUNDER
EMPHASIS FURTHER SOUTH. AND...WHILE THE ACTIVITY FURTHER SOUTH
WILL LIKELY NOT BE SEVERE...WILL MENTION GUSTY WINDS HERE AS WELL
GIVEN INVERTED-V NATURE TO THE PROFILES.

TEMPERATURES:  THE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER WILL SPELL A COOLER
DAY...PARTICULARLY OVER NORTHERN AREAS WHERE CONVECTION WILL BE MOST
WIDESPREAD.  HERE...HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE 70S.  DOWNSLOPE
WESTERLIES WILL PROMOTE HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S OVER SOUTHEASTERN NH
AND EXTREME SW MAINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE.

PATTERN/IMPLICATIONS: WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF
LONGWAVE TROUGH CENTERED OVER HUDSON BAY. OUR WEATHER WILL BE AT
THE MERCY OF SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THIS FEATURE...WITH A
RELATIVE LULL LIKELY FOR TONIGHT-SUNDAY BEHIND THE STRONGER WAVE
ON SATURDAY AND PRECEDING ANOTHER STRONG WAVE ON MONDAY. DESPITE
RELATIVELY LOW HEIGHTS IN THE TROUGH...LLEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN NEAR NORMAL PROMOTING SURFACE TEMPERATURES NOT TOO FAR FROM
SEASONAL NORMS.

TONIGHT: ANY AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD VERY QUICKLY WANE
WITH PARTIAL CLEARING...ALTHOUGH WITH DEEPER MOISTURE POOL CLOSER TO
THE REGION...DO EXPECT SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS TO HANG AROUND
THROUGH THE NIGHT.  LOWS LOOK NOT ALL THAT DISSIMILAR TO TONIGHT
WITH MODEST COOLING TO THE LLEVEL AIRMASS BEHIND DEPARTING COLD
FRONT.  GIVEN AT LEAST SOME RAIN ACROSS THE REGION...AND ONLY MODEST
COOLING BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT...SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG
LOOKS TO BE A GOOD BET.

SUNDAY:  DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION AND WHILE
THERE WILL BE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SYNOPTIC FORCING FOR ASCENT...MID
LEVEL COLD POOL /T5S NEAR -15C/ AND DECENT MOISTURE ALONG SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE HUDSON BAY VORTEX WILL LIKELY ALLOW SOME AFTERNOON
SHOWERS TO SPARK OVER THE MOUNTAINS.  ACTIVITY LOOKS WEAKER AND FAR
LESS WIDESPREAD THAN ON SATURDAY...SO REALLY NOT A BAD DAY EVEN UP
NORTH.  OVER SOUTHERN NH/SOUTHWEST MAINE...EXPECT A DIURNAL INCREASE
IN CLOUDS...BUT NO PRECIPITATION.  TEMPS ALOFT WILL BE ABOUT 2C
COOLER THAN ON SATURDAY...BUT WITH LIKELY A BIT MORE SUN...SO HIGH
TEMPERATURES LOOK SIMILAR TO THE DAY PREVIOUS...PERHAPS A DEGREE/TWO
COOLER FOR SOUTHEAST NH AND SW MAINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER IN THE EXTENDED WILL BE THREAT OF STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

500MB PATTERN IS TRENDING TOWARD A MODIFIED +PNA PATTERN WITH
CLOSED LOW STARTING OUR OVER HUDSON AROUND 60N AND EVENTUALLY
SHIFT SWD INTO SRN QUEBEC BY MID WEEK BEFORE SHIFTING THE NE AND
WEAKENING AS IT RUNS INTO N ATLANTIC RIDGING. THIS WILL PULL SOME
COOLER AIR SWD BY MID TO LATE THIS WEEK...AND WILL KEEP THINGS
SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED AS IT PRODUCES CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. TOWARD NEXT
WEEKEND THE CORE OF THE JET WILL SHIFT BACK TO THE N...AND COULD
SEE THINGS START TO WARM AGAIN.

SUN NIGHT WILL START WITH BUILDING 500MB RIDGING OVER ME AN THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES WHICH WILL ALLOW FLOW TO SHIFT TO THE SW ANDTAP
INTO WARM AIR...SFC AND MID-LVL JUST TO OUR SW. AFTER AN MAINLY
CLEAR AND SEASONABLY COOL SUN NIGHT MONDAY WILL WARM UP WITH
SHRA/TSRA MOVING INTO NW ZONES IN THE AFTERNOON. AS THE 500 MB
CLOSED LOW DEEPENS TO THE WEST AND HEIGHTS FALL WILL SEE DECENT
INSTABILITY DEVELOP ALONG WITH INCREASED FLOW ALOFT. NAM IS
SUGGESTING BORDERLINE EML MOVING IN OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN BY LATE
MON AFT INTO MON EVE...WHICH WOULD AID IN THE FORMATION OF SEVER
STORMS. AT ANY RATE THUNDERSTORMS...WILL BE A GOOD BET AWAY FROM
THE COAST MON AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. ANOTHER WEAK WAVE SWINGS
AROUND THE CLOSED LOW ON TUE...SO ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRA AND TSRA
POSSIBLE...AS THE COOLER AIR WILL WORK IN BEHIND THIS WAVE
TUESDAY. WED THRU FRI WILL BE PARTLY SUNNY...BUT COLD AIR ALOFT
COULD PRODUCE SCT SHRA...MAYBE A TSRA EACH DAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE
MTNS.

TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT ON THE WARM SIDE MONDAY...AS HIGHS
WILL SURGE BACK INTO THE 85-90 RANGE IN MANY INLAND SPOTS...BUT
SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER ON THE COAST...AND ESPECIALLY THE
MID-COAST WHERE SW FLOW INCREASES. IT WILL BE A WARM AND MUGGY MON
NIGHT...WITH TEMPS AND HUMIDITY ON THE HIGHER SIDE TUE...BUT MORE
CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGREES. ONCE THE FRONT COMES
THRU IN THE AFTERNOON LOOK FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS TO DROP TO AROUND
NORMAL...LOW-MID 50S N...TO THE LOW 60S IN SRN NH...WITH HIGHS
RUNNING IN THE LOW 70S TO AROUND 80 THRU THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z SAT/...GENERALLY VFR WITH SOME INCREASING
MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS THROUGH DAYBREAK /ESPECIALLY NORTH/...WITH
SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG AT HIE BRINGING OCCASIONAL MVFR VSBYS.

FOR THE DAY ON SATURDAY...A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO THE
REGION WILL RESULT IN INCREASING CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE
AND NORTHWESTERN MAINE DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS AND CONTINUING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH MORE ISOLATED ACTIVITY FURTHER SOUTH.
THERE WILL LIKELY BE A FEW TEMPORARY PERIODS OF MVFR VSBYS/CIGS...
WITH IFR VSBYS POSSIBLE IN A FEW DOWNPOURS...BUT THE DAY WILL REMAIN
LARGELY VFR.  LEB/HIE/AUG/RKD STAND THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING
STORMS...WHICH COULD BE POTENTIALLY STRONG.  ANY CONVECTION WILL
QUICKLY WANE DURING THE EVENING WITH PARTIAL CLEARING EXPECTED.

WINDS: CALM-LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH DAYBREAK WILL BECOME WEST-
SOUTHWESTERLY 10G18KTS FOR THE DAY ON SATURDAY BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT
WEST-NORTHWESTERLY /5KTS OR LESS/ SATURDAY EVENING.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY...WITH A DIURNAL INCREASE IN
CUMULUS COVERAGE...AND PERHAPS A SPRINKLE/SHOWER AT HIE.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR SUN NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH VLY FOG
POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT. SCT SHRA/TSRA WILL IMPACT MOST OF THE
TERMINALS LATE MON AND MON NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...EXPECT WAVES AND SOUTHERLY WINDS TO REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT LEVELS THROUGH SUNDAY DESPITE INCREASING SOMEWHAT
DURING THE DAY TODAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.

LONG TERM...PERSISTENT SW FLOW SUNDAY AND MONDAY COULD BRING
HIGHER SWELLS TO THE COASTLINE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT....AND A
SURGE OF SW WINDS COULD APPROACH SCA LVLS FOR A SHORT PERIOD MON
NIGHT.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...ARNOTT
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...




000
FXUS61 KGYX 010955 AAA
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
555 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY...BRINGING ANOTHER THREAT
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY DROP OFF
A LITTLE MORE BEHIND THIS FRONT. SUNDAY SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. WEAK LOW PRESSURE
ALOFT...SITUATED OVER QUEBEC...WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND SHOWERS OR
STORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY. THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD
WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED WITH A FEW ROUNDS OF SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
553AM UPDATE: WILL DIMINISH EARLY MORNING POPS SOME BASED ON
WEAKENING RADAR TREND SEEN WITH INITIAL ECHOES AS THEY ATTEMPT TO
WORK THROUGH NORTHERN VERMONT AND OUTRUN ANY MEANINGFUL MUCAPE
FROM RECENT RAP ANALYSES. EXPECT THAT WE/LL NEED A LITTLE MORNING
SUN AND RESULTANT INSTABILITY TO GET ACTIVITY TO INCREASE IN
COVERAGE/INTENSITY. HAVE ALSO LOWERED TEMPS SOME AND INCLUDED SOME
FOG THROUGH 12Z BASED ON EARLY MORNING OBSERVATIONS SHOWING
LOCALLY DENSE FOG IN THE NORTHERN VALLEYS.

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON FOR NORTHERN NH AND NORTHERN MAINE.

CURRENT PATTERN: CYCLONIC FLOW THROUGH THE COLUMN HAS FULLY
ENVELOPED THE REGION AS OF THIS WRITING WITH EARLY MORNING WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING VERTICALLY STACKED LOW CENTERED OVER HUDSON
BAY. A PARADE OF LOCAL VORTICITY MAXIMA CAN ALSO BE SEEN ROTATING
AROUND THIS FEATURE...WITH A BAND OF ENHANCED MOISTURE STRETCHING
FROM CENTRAL ONTARIO SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES...AND JUST STARTING TO SCRAPE NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. A
SHORTWAVE IS COLLOCATED WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS
MOISTURE...WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT SPARKING A FEW SHOWERS /AND
EMBEDDED THUNDER/ ACROSS NEW YORK INTO FAR WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.
THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE NORTH OF NEW ENGLAND WILL CONTINUE TO RIDE
NORTH AND EAST...MAKING WAY FOR ANOTHER WAVE...NOW OVER SOUTHERN
ONTARIO...TO PULL EAST AND BE THE FOCUS FOR OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER
TODAY. FORECAST CHALLENGES CENTER AROUND PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL
WITH THIS FEATURE AS WELL AS THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY STRONG/SEVERE
CONVECTION.

THROUGH DAYBREAK: SHOWERS SEEN ON REGIONAL 88D MOSAIC CONTINUE TO
MAKE A RUN AT NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE.  EXPECT THAT WE/LL HAVE TO
WAIT FOR THE ACTIVITY IN NEW YORK TO MOVE INTO THE REGION FOR ANY
APPRECIABLE PRECIPITATION...WITH PERHAPS A SPRINKLE POSSIBLE OVER
COOS COUNTY NH THROUGH DAYBREAK.  OTHERWISE...JUST SOME MID LEVEL
CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOWER 50S NORTH THROUGH THE
LOWER 60 OVER SOUTHERN NH.

TODAY: ATTENTION TURNS TO UPSTREAM PV ANOMALY MENTIONED ABOVE.  THIS
FEATURE LOOKS TO SHARPEN AS IT ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH AND PUSH INTO NEW ENGLAND.  THIS FEATURE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED
BY 50KT JET AT H5 WITH A 1.5PV 85KT SPEED MAX.  MODEST HEIGHT FALLS
AND INCREASING DPVA WILL WORK IN TANDEM WITH MODEST MOISTURE
INCREASE AND GOOD LAPSE RATES THROUGH H5 /GIVEN COOL POOL ALOFT/
TO ALLOW CONVECTION CURRENTLY OVER NEW YORK TO EXPAND AS IT MOVES
THROUGH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...BEING JOINED LATER BY ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS/WEAK SURFACE FRONT.
THUS...EXPECT SHRAS TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE...WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER
BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD AS INSTABILITY GROWS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS
IMPRESSIVE...APPROACHING 50KTS IN THE 0-6KM LAYER WITH
LONG AND STRAIGHT...WEST-EAST ORIENTED HODOGRAPHS FAVORING MORE
CELLULAR STRUCTURE TO CELLS GIVEN ORTHOGONAL ORIENTATION OF THE
SHEAR TO THE FORCING FEATURE /FRONT/. INSTABILITY WILL BE
SOMEWHAT LIMITED GIVEN ONLY MODEST LLEVEL MOISTURE RECOVERY...BUT
1K J/KG MLCAPE APPEARS POSSIBLE TO ATTAIN OVER FAR NORTHERN NH /
NW MAINE CLOSER TO THE BEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.

SEVERE WEATHER THREATS:  PROFILES HAVE AN INVERTED-V LOOK TO
THEM...WHICH...WITH STRONG WINDS ALOFT SUGGEST A DAMAGING WIND
THREAT...ALTHOUGH MORE LOCALIZED GIVEN THE MORE CELLULAR NATURE TO
THE CONVECTION.  WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS 8-9KFT HIGHLIGHT A HAIL
THREAT AS WELL.  TOR THREAT VERY LOW GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED
INVERTED-V PROFILES.  OVERALL THREAT WILL BE TIED PRIMARILY TO
INSTABILITY...AND THEREFORE WILL BE GREATEST OVER FAR NORTHERN NH
AND NW MAINE...WHICH IS RIGHT IN LINE WITH THE NEW SWODY1 FROM SPC.
WILL INCLUDE ENHANCED WORDING IN THESE LOCATIONS...WITH LESS THUNDER
EMPHASIS FURTHER SOUTH. AND...WHILE THE ACTIVITY FURTHER SOUTH
WILL LIKELY NOT BE SEVERE...WILL MENTION GUSTY WINDS HERE AS WELL
GIVEN INVERTED-V NATURE TO THE PROFILES.

TEMPERATURES:  THE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER WILL SPELL A COOLER
DAY...PARTICULARLY OVER NORTHERN AREAS WHERE CONVECTION WILL BE MOST
WIDESPREAD.  HERE...HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE 70S.  DOWNSLOPE
WESTERLIES WILL PROMOTE HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S OVER SOUTHEASTERN NH
AND EXTREME SW MAINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE.

PATTERN/IMPLICATIONS: WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF
LONGWAVE TROUGH CENTERED OVER HUDSON BAY. OUR WEATHER WILL BE AT
THE MERCY OF SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THIS FEATURE...WITH A
RELATIVE LULL LIKELY FOR TONIGHT-SUNDAY BEHIND THE STRONGER WAVE
ON SATURDAY AND PRECEDING ANOTHER STRONG WAVE ON MONDAY. DESPITE
RELATIVELY LOW HEIGHTS IN THE TROUGH...LLEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN NEAR NORMAL PROMOTING SURFACE TEMPERATURES NOT TOO FAR FROM
SEASONAL NORMS.

TONIGHT: ANY AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD VERY QUICKLY WANE
WITH PARTIAL CLEARING...ALTHOUGH WITH DEEPER MOISTURE POOL CLOSER TO
THE REGION...DO EXPECT SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS TO HANG AROUND
THROUGH THE NIGHT.  LOWS LOOK NOT ALL THAT DISSIMILAR TO TONIGHT
WITH MODEST COOLING TO THE LLEVEL AIRMASS BEHIND DEPARTING COLD
FRONT.  GIVEN AT LEAST SOME RAIN ACROSS THE REGION...AND ONLY MODEST
COOLING BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT...SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG
LOOKS TO BE A GOOD BET.

SUNDAY:  DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION AND WHILE
THERE WILL BE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SYNOPTIC FORCING FOR ASCENT...MID
LEVEL COLD POOL /T5S NEAR -15C/ AND DECENT MOISTURE ALONG SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE HUDSON BAY VORTEX WILL LIKELY ALLOW SOME AFTERNOON
SHOWERS TO SPARK OVER THE MOUNTAINS.  ACTIVITY LOOKS WEAKER AND FAR
LESS WIDESPREAD THAN ON SATURDAY...SO REALLY NOT A BAD DAY EVEN UP
NORTH.  OVER SOUTHERN NH/SOUTHWEST MAINE...EXPECT A DIURNAL INCREASE
IN CLOUDS...BUT NO PRECIPITATION.  TEMPS ALOFT WILL BE ABOUT 2C
COOLER THAN ON SATURDAY...BUT WITH LIKELY A BIT MORE SUN...SO HIGH
TEMPERATURES LOOK SIMILAR TO THE DAY PREVIOUS...PERHAPS A DEGREE/TWO
COOLER FOR SOUTHEAST NH AND SW MAINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER IN THE EXTENDED WILL BE THREAT OF STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

500MB PATTERN IS TRENDING TOWARD A MODIFIED +PNA PATTERN WITH
CLOSED LOW STARTING OUR OVER HUDSON AROUND 60N AND EVENTUALLY
SHIFT SWD INTO SRN QUEBEC BY MID WEEK BEFORE SHIFTING THE NE AND
WEAKENING AS IT RUNS INTO N ATLANTIC RIDGING. THIS WILL PULL SOME
COOLER AIR SWD BY MID TO LATE THIS WEEK...AND WILL KEEP THINGS
SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED AS IT PRODUCES CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. TOWARD NEXT
WEEKEND THE CORE OF THE JET WILL SHIFT BACK TO THE N...AND COULD
SEE THINGS START TO WARM AGAIN.

SUN NIGHT WILL START WITH BUILDING 500MB RIDGING OVER ME AN THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES WHICH WILL ALLOW FLOW TO SHIFT TO THE SW ANDTAP
INTO WARM AIR...SFC AND MID-LVL JUST TO OUR SW. AFTER AN MAINLY
CLEAR AND SEASONABLY COOL SUN NIGHT MONDAY WILL WARM UP WITH
SHRA/TSRA MOVING INTO NW ZONES IN THE AFTERNOON. AS THE 500 MB
CLOSED LOW DEEPENS TO THE WEST AND HEIGHTS FALL WILL SEE DECENT
INSTABILITY DEVELOP ALONG WITH INCREASED FLOW ALOFT. NAM IS
SUGGESTING BORDERLINE EML MOVING IN OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN BY LATE
MON AFT INTO MON EVE...WHICH WOULD AID IN THE FORMATION OF SEVER
STORMS. AT ANY RATE THUNDERSTORMS...WILL BE A GOOD BET AWAY FROM
THE COAST MON AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. ANOTHER WEAK WAVE SWINGS
AROUND THE CLOSED LOW ON TUE...SO ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRA AND TSRA
POSSIBLE...AS THE COOLER AIR WILL WORK IN BEHIND THIS WAVE
TUESDAY. WED THRU FRI WILL BE PARTLY SUNNY...BUT COLD AIR ALOFT
COULD PRODUCE SCT SHRA...MAYBE A TSRA EACH DAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE
MTNS.

TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT ON THE WARM SIDE MONDAY...AS HIGHS
WILL SURGE BACK INTO THE 85-90 RANGE IN MANY INLAND SPOTS...BUT
SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER ON THE COAST...AND ESPECIALLY THE
MID-COAST WHERE SW FLOW INCREASES. IT WILL BE A WARM AND MUGGY MON
NIGHT...WITH TEMPS AND HUMIDITY ON THE HIGHER SIDE TUE...BUT MORE
CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGREES. ONCE THE FRONT COMES
THRU IN THE AFTERNOON LOOK FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS TO DROP TO AROUND
NORMAL...LOW-MID 50S N...TO THE LOW 60S IN SRN NH...WITH HIGHS
RUNNING IN THE LOW 70S TO AROUND 80 THRU THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z SAT/...GENERALLY VFR WITH SOME INCREASING
MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS THROUGH DAYBREAK /ESPECIALLY NORTH/...WITH
SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG AT HIE BRINGING OCCASIONAL MVFR VSBYS.

FOR THE DAY ON SATURDAY...A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO THE
REGION WILL RESULT IN INCREASING CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE
AND NORTHWESTERN MAINE DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS AND CONTINUING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH MORE ISOLATED ACTIVITY FURTHER SOUTH.
THERE WILL LIKELY BE A FEW TEMPORARY PERIODS OF MVFR VSBYS/CIGS...
WITH IFR VSBYS POSSIBLE IN A FEW DOWNPOURS...BUT THE DAY WILL REMAIN
LARGELY VFR.  LEB/HIE/AUG/RKD STAND THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING
STORMS...WHICH COULD BE POTENTIALLY STRONG.  ANY CONVECTION WILL
QUICKLY WANE DURING THE EVENING WITH PARTIAL CLEARING EXPECTED.

WINDS: CALM-LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH DAYBREAK WILL BECOME WEST-
SOUTHWESTERLY 10G18KTS FOR THE DAY ON SATURDAY BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT
WEST-NORTHWESTERLY /5KTS OR LESS/ SATURDAY EVENING.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY...WITH A DIURNAL INCREASE IN
CUMULUS COVERAGE...AND PERHAPS A SPRINKLE/SHOWER AT HIE.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR SUN NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH VLY FOG
POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT. SCT SHRA/TSRA WILL IMPACT MOST OF THE
TERMINALS LATE MON AND MON NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...EXPECT WAVES AND SOUTHERLY WINDS TO REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT LEVELS THROUGH SUNDAY DESPITE INCREASING SOMEWHAT
DURING THE DAY TODAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.

LONG TERM...PERSISTENT SW FLOW SUNDAY AND MONDAY COULD BRING
HIGHER SWELLS TO THE COASTLINE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT....AND A
SURGE OF SW WINDS COULD APPROACH SCA LVLS FOR A SHORT PERIOD MON
NIGHT.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...ARNOTT
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...



000
FXUS61 KGYX 010955 AAA
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
555 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY...BRINGING ANOTHER THREAT
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY DROP OFF
A LITTLE MORE BEHIND THIS FRONT. SUNDAY SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. WEAK LOW PRESSURE
ALOFT...SITUATED OVER QUEBEC...WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND SHOWERS OR
STORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY. THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD
WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED WITH A FEW ROUNDS OF SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
553AM UPDATE: WILL DIMINISH EARLY MORNING POPS SOME BASED ON
WEAKENING RADAR TREND SEEN WITH INITIAL ECHOES AS THEY ATTEMPT TO
WORK THROUGH NORTHERN VERMONT AND OUTRUN ANY MEANINGFUL MUCAPE
FROM RECENT RAP ANALYSES. EXPECT THAT WE/LL NEED A LITTLE MORNING
SUN AND RESULTANT INSTABILITY TO GET ACTIVITY TO INCREASE IN
COVERAGE/INTENSITY. HAVE ALSO LOWERED TEMPS SOME AND INCLUDED SOME
FOG THROUGH 12Z BASED ON EARLY MORNING OBSERVATIONS SHOWING
LOCALLY DENSE FOG IN THE NORTHERN VALLEYS.

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON FOR NORTHERN NH AND NORTHERN MAINE.

CURRENT PATTERN: CYCLONIC FLOW THROUGH THE COLUMN HAS FULLY
ENVELOPED THE REGION AS OF THIS WRITING WITH EARLY MORNING WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING VERTICALLY STACKED LOW CENTERED OVER HUDSON
BAY. A PARADE OF LOCAL VORTICITY MAXIMA CAN ALSO BE SEEN ROTATING
AROUND THIS FEATURE...WITH A BAND OF ENHANCED MOISTURE STRETCHING
FROM CENTRAL ONTARIO SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES...AND JUST STARTING TO SCRAPE NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. A
SHORTWAVE IS COLLOCATED WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS
MOISTURE...WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT SPARKING A FEW SHOWERS /AND
EMBEDDED THUNDER/ ACROSS NEW YORK INTO FAR WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.
THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE NORTH OF NEW ENGLAND WILL CONTINUE TO RIDE
NORTH AND EAST...MAKING WAY FOR ANOTHER WAVE...NOW OVER SOUTHERN
ONTARIO...TO PULL EAST AND BE THE FOCUS FOR OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER
TODAY. FORECAST CHALLENGES CENTER AROUND PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL
WITH THIS FEATURE AS WELL AS THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY STRONG/SEVERE
CONVECTION.

THROUGH DAYBREAK: SHOWERS SEEN ON REGIONAL 88D MOSAIC CONTINUE TO
MAKE A RUN AT NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE.  EXPECT THAT WE/LL HAVE TO
WAIT FOR THE ACTIVITY IN NEW YORK TO MOVE INTO THE REGION FOR ANY
APPRECIABLE PRECIPITATION...WITH PERHAPS A SPRINKLE POSSIBLE OVER
COOS COUNTY NH THROUGH DAYBREAK.  OTHERWISE...JUST SOME MID LEVEL
CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOWER 50S NORTH THROUGH THE
LOWER 60 OVER SOUTHERN NH.

TODAY: ATTENTION TURNS TO UPSTREAM PV ANOMALY MENTIONED ABOVE.  THIS
FEATURE LOOKS TO SHARPEN AS IT ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH AND PUSH INTO NEW ENGLAND.  THIS FEATURE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED
BY 50KT JET AT H5 WITH A 1.5PV 85KT SPEED MAX.  MODEST HEIGHT FALLS
AND INCREASING DPVA WILL WORK IN TANDEM WITH MODEST MOISTURE
INCREASE AND GOOD LAPSE RATES THROUGH H5 /GIVEN COOL POOL ALOFT/
TO ALLOW CONVECTION CURRENTLY OVER NEW YORK TO EXPAND AS IT MOVES
THROUGH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...BEING JOINED LATER BY ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS/WEAK SURFACE FRONT.
THUS...EXPECT SHRAS TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE...WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER
BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD AS INSTABILITY GROWS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS
IMPRESSIVE...APPROACHING 50KTS IN THE 0-6KM LAYER WITH
LONG AND STRAIGHT...WEST-EAST ORIENTED HODOGRAPHS FAVORING MORE
CELLULAR STRUCTURE TO CELLS GIVEN ORTHOGONAL ORIENTATION OF THE
SHEAR TO THE FORCING FEATURE /FRONT/. INSTABILITY WILL BE
SOMEWHAT LIMITED GIVEN ONLY MODEST LLEVEL MOISTURE RECOVERY...BUT
1K J/KG MLCAPE APPEARS POSSIBLE TO ATTAIN OVER FAR NORTHERN NH /
NW MAINE CLOSER TO THE BEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.

SEVERE WEATHER THREATS:  PROFILES HAVE AN INVERTED-V LOOK TO
THEM...WHICH...WITH STRONG WINDS ALOFT SUGGEST A DAMAGING WIND
THREAT...ALTHOUGH MORE LOCALIZED GIVEN THE MORE CELLULAR NATURE TO
THE CONVECTION.  WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS 8-9KFT HIGHLIGHT A HAIL
THREAT AS WELL.  TOR THREAT VERY LOW GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED
INVERTED-V PROFILES.  OVERALL THREAT WILL BE TIED PRIMARILY TO
INSTABILITY...AND THEREFORE WILL BE GREATEST OVER FAR NORTHERN NH
AND NW MAINE...WHICH IS RIGHT IN LINE WITH THE NEW SWODY1 FROM SPC.
WILL INCLUDE ENHANCED WORDING IN THESE LOCATIONS...WITH LESS THUNDER
EMPHASIS FURTHER SOUTH. AND...WHILE THE ACTIVITY FURTHER SOUTH
WILL LIKELY NOT BE SEVERE...WILL MENTION GUSTY WINDS HERE AS WELL
GIVEN INVERTED-V NATURE TO THE PROFILES.

TEMPERATURES:  THE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER WILL SPELL A COOLER
DAY...PARTICULARLY OVER NORTHERN AREAS WHERE CONVECTION WILL BE MOST
WIDESPREAD.  HERE...HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE 70S.  DOWNSLOPE
WESTERLIES WILL PROMOTE HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S OVER SOUTHEASTERN NH
AND EXTREME SW MAINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE.

PATTERN/IMPLICATIONS: WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF
LONGWAVE TROUGH CENTERED OVER HUDSON BAY. OUR WEATHER WILL BE AT
THE MERCY OF SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THIS FEATURE...WITH A
RELATIVE LULL LIKELY FOR TONIGHT-SUNDAY BEHIND THE STRONGER WAVE
ON SATURDAY AND PRECEDING ANOTHER STRONG WAVE ON MONDAY. DESPITE
RELATIVELY LOW HEIGHTS IN THE TROUGH...LLEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN NEAR NORMAL PROMOTING SURFACE TEMPERATURES NOT TOO FAR FROM
SEASONAL NORMS.

TONIGHT: ANY AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD VERY QUICKLY WANE
WITH PARTIAL CLEARING...ALTHOUGH WITH DEEPER MOISTURE POOL CLOSER TO
THE REGION...DO EXPECT SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS TO HANG AROUND
THROUGH THE NIGHT.  LOWS LOOK NOT ALL THAT DISSIMILAR TO TONIGHT
WITH MODEST COOLING TO THE LLEVEL AIRMASS BEHIND DEPARTING COLD
FRONT.  GIVEN AT LEAST SOME RAIN ACROSS THE REGION...AND ONLY MODEST
COOLING BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT...SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG
LOOKS TO BE A GOOD BET.

SUNDAY:  DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION AND WHILE
THERE WILL BE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SYNOPTIC FORCING FOR ASCENT...MID
LEVEL COLD POOL /T5S NEAR -15C/ AND DECENT MOISTURE ALONG SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE HUDSON BAY VORTEX WILL LIKELY ALLOW SOME AFTERNOON
SHOWERS TO SPARK OVER THE MOUNTAINS.  ACTIVITY LOOKS WEAKER AND FAR
LESS WIDESPREAD THAN ON SATURDAY...SO REALLY NOT A BAD DAY EVEN UP
NORTH.  OVER SOUTHERN NH/SOUTHWEST MAINE...EXPECT A DIURNAL INCREASE
IN CLOUDS...BUT NO PRECIPITATION.  TEMPS ALOFT WILL BE ABOUT 2C
COOLER THAN ON SATURDAY...BUT WITH LIKELY A BIT MORE SUN...SO HIGH
TEMPERATURES LOOK SIMILAR TO THE DAY PREVIOUS...PERHAPS A DEGREE/TWO
COOLER FOR SOUTHEAST NH AND SW MAINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER IN THE EXTENDED WILL BE THREAT OF STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

500MB PATTERN IS TRENDING TOWARD A MODIFIED +PNA PATTERN WITH
CLOSED LOW STARTING OUR OVER HUDSON AROUND 60N AND EVENTUALLY
SHIFT SWD INTO SRN QUEBEC BY MID WEEK BEFORE SHIFTING THE NE AND
WEAKENING AS IT RUNS INTO N ATLANTIC RIDGING. THIS WILL PULL SOME
COOLER AIR SWD BY MID TO LATE THIS WEEK...AND WILL KEEP THINGS
SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED AS IT PRODUCES CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. TOWARD NEXT
WEEKEND THE CORE OF THE JET WILL SHIFT BACK TO THE N...AND COULD
SEE THINGS START TO WARM AGAIN.

SUN NIGHT WILL START WITH BUILDING 500MB RIDGING OVER ME AN THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES WHICH WILL ALLOW FLOW TO SHIFT TO THE SW ANDTAP
INTO WARM AIR...SFC AND MID-LVL JUST TO OUR SW. AFTER AN MAINLY
CLEAR AND SEASONABLY COOL SUN NIGHT MONDAY WILL WARM UP WITH
SHRA/TSRA MOVING INTO NW ZONES IN THE AFTERNOON. AS THE 500 MB
CLOSED LOW DEEPENS TO THE WEST AND HEIGHTS FALL WILL SEE DECENT
INSTABILITY DEVELOP ALONG WITH INCREASED FLOW ALOFT. NAM IS
SUGGESTING BORDERLINE EML MOVING IN OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN BY LATE
MON AFT INTO MON EVE...WHICH WOULD AID IN THE FORMATION OF SEVER
STORMS. AT ANY RATE THUNDERSTORMS...WILL BE A GOOD BET AWAY FROM
THE COAST MON AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. ANOTHER WEAK WAVE SWINGS
AROUND THE CLOSED LOW ON TUE...SO ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRA AND TSRA
POSSIBLE...AS THE COOLER AIR WILL WORK IN BEHIND THIS WAVE
TUESDAY. WED THRU FRI WILL BE PARTLY SUNNY...BUT COLD AIR ALOFT
COULD PRODUCE SCT SHRA...MAYBE A TSRA EACH DAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE
MTNS.

TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT ON THE WARM SIDE MONDAY...AS HIGHS
WILL SURGE BACK INTO THE 85-90 RANGE IN MANY INLAND SPOTS...BUT
SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER ON THE COAST...AND ESPECIALLY THE
MID-COAST WHERE SW FLOW INCREASES. IT WILL BE A WARM AND MUGGY MON
NIGHT...WITH TEMPS AND HUMIDITY ON THE HIGHER SIDE TUE...BUT MORE
CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGREES. ONCE THE FRONT COMES
THRU IN THE AFTERNOON LOOK FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS TO DROP TO AROUND
NORMAL...LOW-MID 50S N...TO THE LOW 60S IN SRN NH...WITH HIGHS
RUNNING IN THE LOW 70S TO AROUND 80 THRU THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z SAT/...GENERALLY VFR WITH SOME INCREASING
MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS THROUGH DAYBREAK /ESPECIALLY NORTH/...WITH
SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG AT HIE BRINGING OCCASIONAL MVFR VSBYS.

FOR THE DAY ON SATURDAY...A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO THE
REGION WILL RESULT IN INCREASING CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE
AND NORTHWESTERN MAINE DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS AND CONTINUING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH MORE ISOLATED ACTIVITY FURTHER SOUTH.
THERE WILL LIKELY BE A FEW TEMPORARY PERIODS OF MVFR VSBYS/CIGS...
WITH IFR VSBYS POSSIBLE IN A FEW DOWNPOURS...BUT THE DAY WILL REMAIN
LARGELY VFR.  LEB/HIE/AUG/RKD STAND THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING
STORMS...WHICH COULD BE POTENTIALLY STRONG.  ANY CONVECTION WILL
QUICKLY WANE DURING THE EVENING WITH PARTIAL CLEARING EXPECTED.

WINDS: CALM-LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH DAYBREAK WILL BECOME WEST-
SOUTHWESTERLY 10G18KTS FOR THE DAY ON SATURDAY BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT
WEST-NORTHWESTERLY /5KTS OR LESS/ SATURDAY EVENING.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY...WITH A DIURNAL INCREASE IN
CUMULUS COVERAGE...AND PERHAPS A SPRINKLE/SHOWER AT HIE.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR SUN NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH VLY FOG
POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT. SCT SHRA/TSRA WILL IMPACT MOST OF THE
TERMINALS LATE MON AND MON NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...EXPECT WAVES AND SOUTHERLY WINDS TO REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT LEVELS THROUGH SUNDAY DESPITE INCREASING SOMEWHAT
DURING THE DAY TODAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.

LONG TERM...PERSISTENT SW FLOW SUNDAY AND MONDAY COULD BRING
HIGHER SWELLS TO THE COASTLINE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT....AND A
SURGE OF SW WINDS COULD APPROACH SCA LVLS FOR A SHORT PERIOD MON
NIGHT.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...ARNOTT
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...




000
FXUS61 KCAR 010811
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
411 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
THIS WEEKEND BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
FOCUS CONTINUES TO BE ON CONVECTION TODAY. CONFIDENCE IS BUILDING
THAT SOME CELLS COULD GO SEVERE. MORE ON THIS BELOW.

06Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD WEAK HIGH PRES RIDGE TO THE E W/SFC
FRONT MOVING TOWARD QUEBEC. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS HAD SHOWN UP
EARLIERMOVING ACROSS THE W BUT DISSIPATED. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWED AREA OF CLOUDS MOVING NE ACROSS NORTHERN NYS INTO SOUTHERN
QUEBEC. FURTHER E, MAINLY CLEAR CONDITIONS. STRONG VORTICITY MAX
CAN BE SEEN SPINNING WEST OF THE QUEBEC PROVINCE. THE ATMOSPHERE
IS POISED TO DESTABILIZE THIS MORNING W/HEATING. LATEST MODEL
SOUNDINGS(GFS/NAM/WRF) INDICATE SB/MU CAPES TO HIT 1500+ JOULES BY
EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. LIS DROP TO A RANGE OF -3
TO -6. ENOUGH MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE AVAILABLE THROUGH 700MBS W/AN
INVERTED V IN THE LLVLS. 0-6KM SHEAR TO BE 30+ KTS W/GOOD COLD
POOL ALOFT. THEREFORE, AS THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED VORTICITY MAX
MOVES INTO THE REGION, SHOWERS AND SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INITIATE BY EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL AREAS
W/DECENT LAPSE RATES OF 6.5+ C/KM IN THE MID LEVELS. HAIL IS A
GOOD BET W/THE DRY AIR ALOFT AND COLD POOL. PLUS HAIL CAPE WAS
SHOWN TO BE AROUND 400+ JOULES WHICH IS IN THE RANGE FOR HAIL.

WIND GUSTS ARE BE A CONCERN DUE TO THE SHEAR AND A DECENT
JETSTREAK AT THE 700MBS FORECAST TO SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION. STORM
STRUCTURE WILL BE MULTICELLULAR W/A FEW CELLS REACHING NEAR SUPER
CELLS LIMITS IF STORMS CAN STAY ORGANIZED. OTHER PARAMETERS TO
SUPPORT POSSIBLE SEVERE TSTMS ARE TOTAL TOTALS HIT 50+ AND THE
SHOWALTER INDEX DROPS TO -2. SPC HAS KEPT THE CWA IN A MARGINAL
RISK FOR A FEW STORMS TO GO SEVERE W/LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WIND
GUSTS THE MAIN THREAT. THE FIRST SET OF ACTION WILL MOVE ACROSS
NORTH-CENTRAL AREAS BY EARLY AFTERNOON W/A 2ND AREA ACROSS THE
INTERIOR DOWNEAST INTO WASHINGTON COUNTY. PER COLLABORATION
W/GYX, KEPT ENHANCED WORDING FOR HAIL AND WIND GUSTS EXCEPT FOR
THE COAST AS A SEA BREEZE SETS UP BY EARLY AFTERNOON SHUTTING DOWN
THE STRONG CONVECTIVE THREAT. THIS SEA BREEZE COULD BE A PLAYER IN
STRENGTHENING CONVECTION AS IT COULD INTERACT W/CELLS MOVING
ACROSS THE INTERIOR DOWNEAST. THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL
BE UPDATED THIS MORNING TO REFLECT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL.

FOR TONIGHT, ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO WIND DOWN AND SHIFT E IN THE
EVENING AS THE FRONT AND UPPER SUPPORT MOVE INTO NEW BRUNSWICK.
PARTIAL CLEARING AND COOLER LATER IN THE EVENING. THIS COULD
ALLOW FOR FOG FORMATION ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT RECEIVED
RAINFALL. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE TOWARD THE WESTERN AREAS BY
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT DISTURBANCE
REFERENCED IN THE SHORT TERM SECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD A 500 MB LOW WILL BE SITUATED NEAR HUDSON
BAY. THIS WILL KEEP A WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION ON
SUNDAY. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION ON
SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS,
MAINLY TO NORTHERN AREAS DURING SUNDAY, OTHERWISE EXPECT PARTLY
TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S NORTH AND UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80
DOWNEAST, BUT IT WILL BE COOLER ALONG THE COAST.

SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED. LOWS
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60.

THE UPPER LOW OVER HUDSON BAY AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL
BEGIN TO DROP INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION WITH NORTHERN MAINE
STILL ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER RIDGE. AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE 80S ACROSS MOST
OF THE REGION AWAY FROM THE COAST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL START TO AFFECT WESTERN MAINE BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD
FRONT WILL BE ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER WELL INTO THE NIGHT ACROSS EASTERN AREAS
AS THE FRONT SLOWLY MOVES EAST. MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE MILD WITH
LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE COAST TUESDAY MORNING BUT A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA DURING TUESDAY
AFTERNOON WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FROM SHOWERS OR AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM.

THE SECONDARY FRONT WILL MOVE EAST TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A COOLER
AND DRIER AIR MASS TO FOLLOW FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL TROF ACROSS THE AREA.

THE UPPER TROF WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR DRY WEATHER WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. WE COULD ONCE AGAIN SEE SOME SHOWERS
RETURN BY NEXT WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MOST OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: BASICALLY VFR INTO TONIGHT OUTSIDE SOME SHRA AND TSRA
WHICH COULD BRING BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR AND PERHAPS IFR. HAIL AND
STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AT THE
TERMINALS W/THE EXCEPTION OF KBHB. VSBY OVERNIGHT COULD DROP TO
MVFR DUE TO EARLIER ACTIVITY AND COOLER BLYR.

SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREDOMINATE THROUGH THE PERIOD
OUTSIDE OF LCL MVFR IN ANY SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SOUTH SWELL LOOKS BE SETTING UP W/A PERIOD OF 8
SECONDS. THE SWELL IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT W/WAVE
HEIGHTS BUILDING TO A RANGE OF 2-4 FT. THE OUTER ZONES COULD SEE
3-5 IN SWELLS W/PERIODS OF 9-10 SECONDS. WINDS WILL PICK UP SOME
THIS EVENING W/THE FROPA TO 10-15 KTS AND AGAIN THIS WILL BE
MAINLY THE CASE FOR THE OUTER ZONES.

SHORT TERM: WIND/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HEWITT
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...HEWITT/DUDA
MARINE...HEWITT/DUDA



000
FXUS61 KCAR 010811
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
411 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
THIS WEEKEND BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
FOCUS CONTINUES TO BE ON CONVECTION TODAY. CONFIDENCE IS BUILDING
THAT SOME CELLS COULD GO SEVERE. MORE ON THIS BELOW.

06Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD WEAK HIGH PRES RIDGE TO THE E W/SFC
FRONT MOVING TOWARD QUEBEC. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS HAD SHOWN UP
EARLIERMOVING ACROSS THE W BUT DISSIPATED. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWED AREA OF CLOUDS MOVING NE ACROSS NORTHERN NYS INTO SOUTHERN
QUEBEC. FURTHER E, MAINLY CLEAR CONDITIONS. STRONG VORTICITY MAX
CAN BE SEEN SPINNING WEST OF THE QUEBEC PROVINCE. THE ATMOSPHERE
IS POISED TO DESTABILIZE THIS MORNING W/HEATING. LATEST MODEL
SOUNDINGS(GFS/NAM/WRF) INDICATE SB/MU CAPES TO HIT 1500+ JOULES BY
EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. LIS DROP TO A RANGE OF -3
TO -6. ENOUGH MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE AVAILABLE THROUGH 700MBS W/AN
INVERTED V IN THE LLVLS. 0-6KM SHEAR TO BE 30+ KTS W/GOOD COLD
POOL ALOFT. THEREFORE, AS THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED VORTICITY MAX
MOVES INTO THE REGION, SHOWERS AND SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INITIATE BY EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL AREAS
W/DECENT LAPSE RATES OF 6.5+ C/KM IN THE MID LEVELS. HAIL IS A
GOOD BET W/THE DRY AIR ALOFT AND COLD POOL. PLUS HAIL CAPE WAS
SHOWN TO BE AROUND 400+ JOULES WHICH IS IN THE RANGE FOR HAIL.

WIND GUSTS ARE BE A CONCERN DUE TO THE SHEAR AND A DECENT
JETSTREAK AT THE 700MBS FORECAST TO SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION. STORM
STRUCTURE WILL BE MULTICELLULAR W/A FEW CELLS REACHING NEAR SUPER
CELLS LIMITS IF STORMS CAN STAY ORGANIZED. OTHER PARAMETERS TO
SUPPORT POSSIBLE SEVERE TSTMS ARE TOTAL TOTALS HIT 50+ AND THE
SHOWALTER INDEX DROPS TO -2. SPC HAS KEPT THE CWA IN A MARGINAL
RISK FOR A FEW STORMS TO GO SEVERE W/LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WIND
GUSTS THE MAIN THREAT. THE FIRST SET OF ACTION WILL MOVE ACROSS
NORTH-CENTRAL AREAS BY EARLY AFTERNOON W/A 2ND AREA ACROSS THE
INTERIOR DOWNEAST INTO WASHINGTON COUNTY. PER COLLABORATION
W/GYX, KEPT ENHANCED WORDING FOR HAIL AND WIND GUSTS EXCEPT FOR
THE COAST AS A SEA BREEZE SETS UP BY EARLY AFTERNOON SHUTTING DOWN
THE STRONG CONVECTIVE THREAT. THIS SEA BREEZE COULD BE A PLAYER IN
STRENGTHENING CONVECTION AS IT COULD INTERACT W/CELLS MOVING
ACROSS THE INTERIOR DOWNEAST. THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL
BE UPDATED THIS MORNING TO REFLECT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL.

FOR TONIGHT, ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO WIND DOWN AND SHIFT E IN THE
EVENING AS THE FRONT AND UPPER SUPPORT MOVE INTO NEW BRUNSWICK.
PARTIAL CLEARING AND COOLER LATER IN THE EVENING. THIS COULD
ALLOW FOR FOG FORMATION ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT RECEIVED
RAINFALL. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE TOWARD THE WESTERN AREAS BY
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT DISTURBANCE
REFERENCED IN THE SHORT TERM SECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD A 500 MB LOW WILL BE SITUATED NEAR HUDSON
BAY. THIS WILL KEEP A WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION ON
SUNDAY. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION ON
SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS,
MAINLY TO NORTHERN AREAS DURING SUNDAY, OTHERWISE EXPECT PARTLY
TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S NORTH AND UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80
DOWNEAST, BUT IT WILL BE COOLER ALONG THE COAST.

SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED. LOWS
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60.

THE UPPER LOW OVER HUDSON BAY AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL
BEGIN TO DROP INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION WITH NORTHERN MAINE
STILL ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER RIDGE. AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE 80S ACROSS MOST
OF THE REGION AWAY FROM THE COAST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL START TO AFFECT WESTERN MAINE BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD
FRONT WILL BE ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER WELL INTO THE NIGHT ACROSS EASTERN AREAS
AS THE FRONT SLOWLY MOVES EAST. MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE MILD WITH
LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE COAST TUESDAY MORNING BUT A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA DURING TUESDAY
AFTERNOON WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FROM SHOWERS OR AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM.

THE SECONDARY FRONT WILL MOVE EAST TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A COOLER
AND DRIER AIR MASS TO FOLLOW FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL TROF ACROSS THE AREA.

THE UPPER TROF WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR DRY WEATHER WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. WE COULD ONCE AGAIN SEE SOME SHOWERS
RETURN BY NEXT WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MOST OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: BASICALLY VFR INTO TONIGHT OUTSIDE SOME SHRA AND TSRA
WHICH COULD BRING BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR AND PERHAPS IFR. HAIL AND
STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AT THE
TERMINALS W/THE EXCEPTION OF KBHB. VSBY OVERNIGHT COULD DROP TO
MVFR DUE TO EARLIER ACTIVITY AND COOLER BLYR.

SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREDOMINATE THROUGH THE PERIOD
OUTSIDE OF LCL MVFR IN ANY SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SOUTH SWELL LOOKS BE SETTING UP W/A PERIOD OF 8
SECONDS. THE SWELL IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT W/WAVE
HEIGHTS BUILDING TO A RANGE OF 2-4 FT. THE OUTER ZONES COULD SEE
3-5 IN SWELLS W/PERIODS OF 9-10 SECONDS. WINDS WILL PICK UP SOME
THIS EVENING W/THE FROPA TO 10-15 KTS AND AGAIN THIS WILL BE
MAINLY THE CASE FOR THE OUTER ZONES.

SHORT TERM: WIND/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HEWITT
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...HEWITT/DUDA
MARINE...HEWITT/DUDA




000
FXUS61 KGYX 010739
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
339 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY...BRINGING ANOTHER THREAT
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY DROP OFF
A LITTLE MORE BEHIND THIS FRONT. SUNDAY SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. WEAK LOW PRESSURE
ALOFT...SITUATED OVER QUEBEC...WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND SHOWERS OR
STORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY. THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD
WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED WITH A FEW ROUNDS OF SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON FOR NORTHERN NH AND NORTHERN MAINE.

CURRENT PATTERN: CYCLONIC FLOW THROUGH THE COLUMN HAS FULLY
ENVELOPED THE REGION AS OF THIS WRITING WITH EARLY MORNING WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING VERTICALLY STACKED LOW CENTERED OVER HUDSON
BAY. A PARADE OF LOCAL VORTICITY MAXIMA CAN ALSO BE SEEN ROTATING
AROUND THIS FEATURE...WITH A BAND OF ENHANCED MOISTURE STRETCHING
FROM CENTRAL ONTARIO SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES...AND JUST STARTING TO SCRAPE NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. A
SHORTWAVE IS COLLOCATED WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS
MOISTURE...WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT SPARKING A FEW SHOWERS /AND
EMBEDDED THUNDER/ ACROSS NEW YORK INTO FAR WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.
THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE NORTH OF NEW ENGLAND WILL CONTINUE TO RIDE
NORTH AND EAST...MAKING WAY FOR ANOTHER WAVE...NOW OVER SOUTHERN
ONTARIO...TO PULL EAST AND BE THE FOCUS FOR OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER
TODAY. FORECAST CHALLENGES CENTER AROUND PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL
WITH THIS FEATURE AS WELL AS THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY STRONG/SEVERE
CONVECTION.

THROUGH DAYBREAK: SHOWERS SEEN ON REGIONAL 88D MOSAIC CONTINUE TO
MAKE A RUN AT NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE.  EXPECT THAT WE/LL HAVE TO
WAIT FOR THE ACTIVITY IN NEW YORK TO MOVE INTO THE REGION FOR ANY
APPRECIABLE PRECIPITATION...WITH PERHAPS A SPRINKLE POSSIBLE OVER
COOS COUNTY NH THROUGH DAYBREAK.  OTHERWISE...JUST SOME MID LEVEL
CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOWER 50S NORTH THROUGH THE
LOWER 60 OVER SOUTHERN NH.

TODAY: ATTENTION TURNS TO UPSTREAM PV ANOMALY MENTIONED ABOVE.  THIS
FEATURE LOOKS TO SHARPEN AS IT ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH AND PUSH INTO NEW ENGLAND.  THIS FEATURE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED
BY 50KT JET AT H5 WITH A 1.5PV 85KT SPEED MAX.  MODEST HEIGHT FALLS
AND INCREASING DPVA WILL WORK IN TANDEM WITH MODEST MOISTURE
INCREASE AND GOOD LAPSE RATES THROUGH H5 /GIVEN COOL POOL ALOFT/
TO ALLOW CONVECTION CURRENTLY OVER NEW YORK TO EXPAND AS IT MOVES
THROUGH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...BEING JOINED LATER BY ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS/WEAK SURFACE FRONT.
THUS...EXPECT SHRAS TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE...WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER
BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD AS INSTABILITY GROWS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS
IMPRESSIVE...APPROACHING 50KTS IN THE 0-6KM LAYER WITH
LONG AND STRAIGHT...WEST-EAST ORIENTED HODOGRAPHS FAVORING MORE
CELLULAR STRUCTURE TO CELLS GIVEN ORTHOGONAL ORIENTATION OF THE
SHEAR TO THE FORCING FEATURE /FRONT/. INSTABILITY WILL BE
SOMEWHAT LIMITED GIVEN ONLY MODEST LLEVEL MOISTURE RECOVERY...BUT
1K J/KG MLCAPE APPEARS POSSIBLE TO ATTAIN OVER FAR NORTHERN NH /
NW MAINE CLOSER TO THE BEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.

SEVERE WEATHER THREATS:  PROFILES HAVE AN INVERTED-V LOOK TO
THEM...WHICH...WITH STRONG WINDS ALOFT SUGGEST A DAMAGING WIND
THREAT...ALTHOUGH MORE LOCALIZED GIVEN THE MORE CELLULAR NATURE TO
THE CONVECTION.  WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS 8-9KFT HIGHLIGHT A HAIL
THREAT AS WELL.  TOR THREAT VERY LOW GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED
INVERTED-V PROFILES.  OVERALL THREAT WILL BE TIED PRIMARILY TO
INSTABILITY...AND THEREFORE WILL BE GREATEST OVER FAR NORTHERN NH
AND NW MAINE...WHICH IS RIGHT IN LINE WITH THE NEW SWODY1 FROM SPC.
WILL INCLUDE ENHANCED WORDING IN THESE LOCATIONS...WITH LESS THUNDER
EMPHASIS FURTHER SOUTH. AND...WHILE THE ACTIVITY FURTHER SOUTH
WILL LIKELY NOT BE SEVERE...WILL MENTION GUSTY WINDS HERE AS WELL
GIVEN INVERTED-V NATURE TO THE PROFILES.

TEMPERATURES:  THE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER WILL SPELL A COOLER
DAY...PARTICULARLY OVER NORTHERN AREAS WHERE CONVECTION WILL BE MOST
WIDESPREAD.  HERE...HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE 70S.  DOWNSLOPE
WESTERLIES WILL PROMOTE HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S OVER SOUTHEASTERN NH
AND EXTREME SW MAINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE.

PATTERN/IMPLICATIONS: WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF
LONGWAVE TROUGH CENTERED OVER HUDSON BAY. OUR WEATHER WILL BE AT
THE MERCY OF SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THIS FEATURE...WITH A
RELATIVE LULL LIKELY FOR TONIGHT-SUNDAY BEHIND THE STRONGER WAVE
ON SATURDAY AND PRECEEDING ANOTHER STRONG WAVE ON MONDAY. DESPITE
RELATIVELY LOW HEIGHTS IN THE TROUGH...LLEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN NEAR NORMAL PROMOTING SURFACE TEMPERATURES NOT TOO FAR FROM
SEASONAL NORMS.

TONIGHT: ANY AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD VERY QUICKLY WANE
WITH PARTIAL CLEARING...ALTHOUGH WITH DEEPER MOISTURE POOL CLOSER TO
THE REGION...DO EXPECT SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS TO HANG AROUND
THROUGH THE NIGHT.  LOWS LOOK NOT ALL THAT DISSIMILAR TO TONIGHT
WITH MODEST COOLING TO THE LLEVEL AIRMASS BEHIND DEPARTING COLD
FRONT.  GIVEN AT LEAST SOME RAIN ACROSS THE REGION...AND ONLY MODEST
COOLING BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT...SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG
LOOKS TO BE A GOOD BET.

SUNDAY:  DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION AND WHILE
THERE WILL BE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SYNOPTIC FORCING FOR ASCENT...MID
LEVEL COLD POOL /T5S NEAR -15C/ AND DECENT MOISTURE ALONG SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE HUDSON BAY VORTEX WILL LIKELY ALLOW SOME AFTERNOON
SHOWERS TO SPARK OVER THE MOUNTAINS.  ACTIVITY LOOKS WEAKER AND FAR
LESS WIDESPREAD THAN ON SATURDAY...SO REALLY NOT A BAD DAY EVEN UP
NORTH.  OVER SOUTHERN NH/SOUTHWEST MAINE...EXPECT A DIURNAL INCREASE
IN CLOUDS...BUT NO PRECIPITATION.  TEMPS ALOFT WILL BE ABOUT 2C
COOLER THAN ON SATURDAY...BUT WITH LIKELY A BIT MORE SUN...SO HIGH
TEMPERATURES LOOK SIMILAR TO THE DAY PREVIOUS...PERHAPS A DEGREE/TWO
COOLER FOR SOUTHEAST NH AND SW MAINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER IN THE EXTENDED WILL BE THREAT OF STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

500MB PATTERN IS TRENDING TOWARD A MODIFIED +PNA PATTERN WITH
CLOSED LOW STARTING OUR OVER HUDSON AROUND 60N AND EVENTUALLY
SHIFT SWD INTO SRN QUEBEC BY MID WEEK BEFORE SHIFTING THE NE AND
WEAKENING AS IT RUNS INTO N ATLANTIC RIDGING. THIS WILL PULL SOME
COOLER AIR SWD BY MID TO LATE THIS WEEK...AND WILL KEEP THINGS
SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED AS IT PRODUCES CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. TOWARD NEXT
WEEKEND THE CORE OF THE JET WILL SHIFT BACK TO THE N...AND COULD
SEE THINGS START TO WARM AGAIN.

SUN NIGHT WILL START WITH BUILDING 500MB RIDGING OVER ME AN THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES WHICH WILL ALLOW FLOW TO SHIFT TO THE SW ANDTAP
INTO WARM AIR...SFC AND MID-LVL JUST TO OUR SW. AFTER AN MAINLY
CLEAR AND SEASONABLY COOL SUN NIGHT MONDAY WILL WARM UP WITH
SHRA/TSRA MOVING INTO NW ZONES IN THE AFTERNOON. AS THE 500 MB
CLOSED LOW DEEPENS TO THE WEST AND HEIGHTS FALL WILL SEE DECENT
INSTABILITY DEVELOP ALONG WITH INCREASED FLOW ALOFT. NAM IS
SUGGESTING BORDERLINE EML MOVING IN OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN BY LATE
MON AFT INTO MON EVE...WHICH WOULD AID IN THE FORMATION OF SEVER
STORMS. AT ANY RATE THUNDERSTORMS...WILL BE A GOOD BET AWAY FROM
THE COAST MON AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. ANOTHER WEAK WAVE SWINGS
AROUND THE CLOSED LOW ON TUE...SO ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRA AND TSRA
POSSIBLE...AS THE COOLER AIR WILL WORK IN BEHIND THIS WAVE
TUESDAY. WED THRU FRI WILL BE PARTLY SUNNY...BUT COLD AIR ALOFT
COULD PRODUCE SCT SHRA...MAYBE A TSRA EACH DAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE
MTNS.

TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT ON THE WARM SIDE MONDAY...AS HIGHS
WILL SURGE BACK INTO THE 85-90 RANGE IN MANY INLAND SPOTS...BUT
SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER ON THE COAST...AND ESPECIALLY THE
MID-COAST WHERE SW FLOW INCREASES. IT WILL BE A WARM AND MUGGY MON
NIGHT...WITH TEMPS AND HUMIDITY ON THE HIGHER SIDE TUE...BUT MORE
CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGREES. ONCE THE FRONT COMES
THRU IN THE AFTERNOON LOOK FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS TO DROP TO AROUND
NORMAL...LOW-MID 50S N...TO THE LOW 60S IN SRN NH...WITH HIGHS
RUNNING IN THE LOW 70S TO AROUND 80 THRU THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z SAT/...GENERALLY VFR WITH SOME INCREASING
MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS THROUGH DAYBREAK /ESPECIALLY NORTH/...WITH
SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG AT HIE BRINGING OCCASIONAL MVFR VSBYS.

FOR THE DAY ON SATURDAY...A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO THE
REGION WILL RESULT IN INCREASING CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE
AND NORTHWESTERN MAINE DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS AND CONTINUING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH MORE ISOLATED ACTIVITY FURTHER SOUTH.
THERE WILL LIKELY BE A FEW TEMPORARY PERIODS OF MVFR VSBYS/CIGS...
WITH IFR VSBYS POSSIBLE IN A FEW DOWNPOURS...BUT THE DAY WILL REMAIN
LARGELY VFR.  LEB/HIE/AUG/RKD STAND THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING
STORMS...WHICH COULD BE POTENTIALLY STRONG.  ANY CONVECTION WILL
QUICKLY WANE DURING THE EVENING WITH PARTIAL CLEARING EXPECTED.

WINDS: CALM-LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH DAYBREAK WILL BECOME WEST-
SOUTHWESTERLY 10G18KTS FOR THE DAY ON SATURDAY BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT
WEST-NORTHWESTERLY /5KTS OR LESS/ SATURDAY EVENING.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY...WITH A DIURNAL INCREASE IN
CUMULUS COVERAGE...AND PERHAPS A SPRINKLE/SHOWER AT HIE.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR SUN NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH VLY FOG
POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT. SCT SHRA/TSRA WILL IMPACT MOST OF THE
TERMINALS LATE MON AND MON NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...EXPECT WAVES AND SOUTHERLY WINDS TO REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT LEVELS THROUGH SUNDAY DESPITE INCREASING SOMEWHAT
DURING THE DAY TODAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.

LONG TERM...PERSISTENT SW FLOW SUNDAY AND MONDAY COULD BRING
HIGHER SWELLS TO THE COASTLINE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT....AND A
SURGE OF SW WINDS COULD APPROACH SCA LVLS FOR A SHORT PERIOD MON
NIGHT.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CEMPA
NEAR TERM...ARNOTT
SHORT TERM...ARNOTT
LONG TERM...CEMPA
AVIATION...ARNOTT/CEMPA
MARINE...ARNOTT/CEMPA



000
FXUS61 KGYX 010739
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
339 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY...BRINGING ANOTHER THREAT
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY DROP OFF
A LITTLE MORE BEHIND THIS FRONT. SUNDAY SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. WEAK LOW PRESSURE
ALOFT...SITUATED OVER QUEBEC...WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND SHOWERS OR
STORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY. THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD
WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED WITH A FEW ROUNDS OF SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON FOR NORTHERN NH AND NORTHERN MAINE.

CURRENT PATTERN: CYCLONIC FLOW THROUGH THE COLUMN HAS FULLY
ENVELOPED THE REGION AS OF THIS WRITING WITH EARLY MORNING WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING VERTICALLY STACKED LOW CENTERED OVER HUDSON
BAY. A PARADE OF LOCAL VORTICITY MAXIMA CAN ALSO BE SEEN ROTATING
AROUND THIS FEATURE...WITH A BAND OF ENHANCED MOISTURE STRETCHING
FROM CENTRAL ONTARIO SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES...AND JUST STARTING TO SCRAPE NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. A
SHORTWAVE IS COLLOCATED WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS
MOISTURE...WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT SPARKING A FEW SHOWERS /AND
EMBEDDED THUNDER/ ACROSS NEW YORK INTO FAR WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.
THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE NORTH OF NEW ENGLAND WILL CONTINUE TO RIDE
NORTH AND EAST...MAKING WAY FOR ANOTHER WAVE...NOW OVER SOUTHERN
ONTARIO...TO PULL EAST AND BE THE FOCUS FOR OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER
TODAY. FORECAST CHALLENGES CENTER AROUND PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL
WITH THIS FEATURE AS WELL AS THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY STRONG/SEVERE
CONVECTION.

THROUGH DAYBREAK: SHOWERS SEEN ON REGIONAL 88D MOSAIC CONTINUE TO
MAKE A RUN AT NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE.  EXPECT THAT WE/LL HAVE TO
WAIT FOR THE ACTIVITY IN NEW YORK TO MOVE INTO THE REGION FOR ANY
APPRECIABLE PRECIPITATION...WITH PERHAPS A SPRINKLE POSSIBLE OVER
COOS COUNTY NH THROUGH DAYBREAK.  OTHERWISE...JUST SOME MID LEVEL
CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOWER 50S NORTH THROUGH THE
LOWER 60 OVER SOUTHERN NH.

TODAY: ATTENTION TURNS TO UPSTREAM PV ANOMALY MENTIONED ABOVE.  THIS
FEATURE LOOKS TO SHARPEN AS IT ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH AND PUSH INTO NEW ENGLAND.  THIS FEATURE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED
BY 50KT JET AT H5 WITH A 1.5PV 85KT SPEED MAX.  MODEST HEIGHT FALLS
AND INCREASING DPVA WILL WORK IN TANDEM WITH MODEST MOISTURE
INCREASE AND GOOD LAPSE RATES THROUGH H5 /GIVEN COOL POOL ALOFT/
TO ALLOW CONVECTION CURRENTLY OVER NEW YORK TO EXPAND AS IT MOVES
THROUGH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...BEING JOINED LATER BY ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS/WEAK SURFACE FRONT.
THUS...EXPECT SHRAS TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE...WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER
BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD AS INSTABILITY GROWS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS
IMPRESSIVE...APPROACHING 50KTS IN THE 0-6KM LAYER WITH
LONG AND STRAIGHT...WEST-EAST ORIENTED HODOGRAPHS FAVORING MORE
CELLULAR STRUCTURE TO CELLS GIVEN ORTHOGONAL ORIENTATION OF THE
SHEAR TO THE FORCING FEATURE /FRONT/. INSTABILITY WILL BE
SOMEWHAT LIMITED GIVEN ONLY MODEST LLEVEL MOISTURE RECOVERY...BUT
1K J/KG MLCAPE APPEARS POSSIBLE TO ATTAIN OVER FAR NORTHERN NH /
NW MAINE CLOSER TO THE BEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.

SEVERE WEATHER THREATS:  PROFILES HAVE AN INVERTED-V LOOK TO
THEM...WHICH...WITH STRONG WINDS ALOFT SUGGEST A DAMAGING WIND
THREAT...ALTHOUGH MORE LOCALIZED GIVEN THE MORE CELLULAR NATURE TO
THE CONVECTION.  WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS 8-9KFT HIGHLIGHT A HAIL
THREAT AS WELL.  TOR THREAT VERY LOW GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED
INVERTED-V PROFILES.  OVERALL THREAT WILL BE TIED PRIMARILY TO
INSTABILITY...AND THEREFORE WILL BE GREATEST OVER FAR NORTHERN NH
AND NW MAINE...WHICH IS RIGHT IN LINE WITH THE NEW SWODY1 FROM SPC.
WILL INCLUDE ENHANCED WORDING IN THESE LOCATIONS...WITH LESS THUNDER
EMPHASIS FURTHER SOUTH. AND...WHILE THE ACTIVITY FURTHER SOUTH
WILL LIKELY NOT BE SEVERE...WILL MENTION GUSTY WINDS HERE AS WELL
GIVEN INVERTED-V NATURE TO THE PROFILES.

TEMPERATURES:  THE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER WILL SPELL A COOLER
DAY...PARTICULARLY OVER NORTHERN AREAS WHERE CONVECTION WILL BE MOST
WIDESPREAD.  HERE...HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE 70S.  DOWNSLOPE
WESTERLIES WILL PROMOTE HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S OVER SOUTHEASTERN NH
AND EXTREME SW MAINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE.

PATTERN/IMPLICATIONS: WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF
LONGWAVE TROUGH CENTERED OVER HUDSON BAY. OUR WEATHER WILL BE AT
THE MERCY OF SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THIS FEATURE...WITH A
RELATIVE LULL LIKELY FOR TONIGHT-SUNDAY BEHIND THE STRONGER WAVE
ON SATURDAY AND PRECEEDING ANOTHER STRONG WAVE ON MONDAY. DESPITE
RELATIVELY LOW HEIGHTS IN THE TROUGH...LLEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN NEAR NORMAL PROMOTING SURFACE TEMPERATURES NOT TOO FAR FROM
SEASONAL NORMS.

TONIGHT: ANY AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD VERY QUICKLY WANE
WITH PARTIAL CLEARING...ALTHOUGH WITH DEEPER MOISTURE POOL CLOSER TO
THE REGION...DO EXPECT SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS TO HANG AROUND
THROUGH THE NIGHT.  LOWS LOOK NOT ALL THAT DISSIMILAR TO TONIGHT
WITH MODEST COOLING TO THE LLEVEL AIRMASS BEHIND DEPARTING COLD
FRONT.  GIVEN AT LEAST SOME RAIN ACROSS THE REGION...AND ONLY MODEST
COOLING BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT...SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG
LOOKS TO BE A GOOD BET.

SUNDAY:  DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION AND WHILE
THERE WILL BE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SYNOPTIC FORCING FOR ASCENT...MID
LEVEL COLD POOL /T5S NEAR -15C/ AND DECENT MOISTURE ALONG SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE HUDSON BAY VORTEX WILL LIKELY ALLOW SOME AFTERNOON
SHOWERS TO SPARK OVER THE MOUNTAINS.  ACTIVITY LOOKS WEAKER AND FAR
LESS WIDESPREAD THAN ON SATURDAY...SO REALLY NOT A BAD DAY EVEN UP
NORTH.  OVER SOUTHERN NH/SOUTHWEST MAINE...EXPECT A DIURNAL INCREASE
IN CLOUDS...BUT NO PRECIPITATION.  TEMPS ALOFT WILL BE ABOUT 2C
COOLER THAN ON SATURDAY...BUT WITH LIKELY A BIT MORE SUN...SO HIGH
TEMPERATURES LOOK SIMILAR TO THE DAY PREVIOUS...PERHAPS A DEGREE/TWO
COOLER FOR SOUTHEAST NH AND SW MAINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER IN THE EXTENDED WILL BE THREAT OF STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

500MB PATTERN IS TRENDING TOWARD A MODIFIED +PNA PATTERN WITH
CLOSED LOW STARTING OUR OVER HUDSON AROUND 60N AND EVENTUALLY
SHIFT SWD INTO SRN QUEBEC BY MID WEEK BEFORE SHIFTING THE NE AND
WEAKENING AS IT RUNS INTO N ATLANTIC RIDGING. THIS WILL PULL SOME
COOLER AIR SWD BY MID TO LATE THIS WEEK...AND WILL KEEP THINGS
SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED AS IT PRODUCES CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. TOWARD NEXT
WEEKEND THE CORE OF THE JET WILL SHIFT BACK TO THE N...AND COULD
SEE THINGS START TO WARM AGAIN.

SUN NIGHT WILL START WITH BUILDING 500MB RIDGING OVER ME AN THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES WHICH WILL ALLOW FLOW TO SHIFT TO THE SW ANDTAP
INTO WARM AIR...SFC AND MID-LVL JUST TO OUR SW. AFTER AN MAINLY
CLEAR AND SEASONABLY COOL SUN NIGHT MONDAY WILL WARM UP WITH
SHRA/TSRA MOVING INTO NW ZONES IN THE AFTERNOON. AS THE 500 MB
CLOSED LOW DEEPENS TO THE WEST AND HEIGHTS FALL WILL SEE DECENT
INSTABILITY DEVELOP ALONG WITH INCREASED FLOW ALOFT. NAM IS
SUGGESTING BORDERLINE EML MOVING IN OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN BY LATE
MON AFT INTO MON EVE...WHICH WOULD AID IN THE FORMATION OF SEVER
STORMS. AT ANY RATE THUNDERSTORMS...WILL BE A GOOD BET AWAY FROM
THE COAST MON AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. ANOTHER WEAK WAVE SWINGS
AROUND THE CLOSED LOW ON TUE...SO ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRA AND TSRA
POSSIBLE...AS THE COOLER AIR WILL WORK IN BEHIND THIS WAVE
TUESDAY. WED THRU FRI WILL BE PARTLY SUNNY...BUT COLD AIR ALOFT
COULD PRODUCE SCT SHRA...MAYBE A TSRA EACH DAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE
MTNS.

TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT ON THE WARM SIDE MONDAY...AS HIGHS
WILL SURGE BACK INTO THE 85-90 RANGE IN MANY INLAND SPOTS...BUT
SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER ON THE COAST...AND ESPECIALLY THE
MID-COAST WHERE SW FLOW INCREASES. IT WILL BE A WARM AND MUGGY MON
NIGHT...WITH TEMPS AND HUMIDITY ON THE HIGHER SIDE TUE...BUT MORE
CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGREES. ONCE THE FRONT COMES
THRU IN THE AFTERNOON LOOK FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS TO DROP TO AROUND
NORMAL...LOW-MID 50S N...TO THE LOW 60S IN SRN NH...WITH HIGHS
RUNNING IN THE LOW 70S TO AROUND 80 THRU THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z SAT/...GENERALLY VFR WITH SOME INCREASING
MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS THROUGH DAYBREAK /ESPECIALLY NORTH/...WITH
SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG AT HIE BRINGING OCCASIONAL MVFR VSBYS.

FOR THE DAY ON SATURDAY...A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO THE
REGION WILL RESULT IN INCREASING CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE
AND NORTHWESTERN MAINE DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS AND CONTINUING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH MORE ISOLATED ACTIVITY FURTHER SOUTH.
THERE WILL LIKELY BE A FEW TEMPORARY PERIODS OF MVFR VSBYS/CIGS...
WITH IFR VSBYS POSSIBLE IN A FEW DOWNPOURS...BUT THE DAY WILL REMAIN
LARGELY VFR.  LEB/HIE/AUG/RKD STAND THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING
STORMS...WHICH COULD BE POTENTIALLY STRONG.  ANY CONVECTION WILL
QUICKLY WANE DURING THE EVENING WITH PARTIAL CLEARING EXPECTED.

WINDS: CALM-LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH DAYBREAK WILL BECOME WEST-
SOUTHWESTERLY 10G18KTS FOR THE DAY ON SATURDAY BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT
WEST-NORTHWESTERLY /5KTS OR LESS/ SATURDAY EVENING.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY...WITH A DIURNAL INCREASE IN
CUMULUS COVERAGE...AND PERHAPS A SPRINKLE/SHOWER AT HIE.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR SUN NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH VLY FOG
POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT. SCT SHRA/TSRA WILL IMPACT MOST OF THE
TERMINALS LATE MON AND MON NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...EXPECT WAVES AND SOUTHERLY WINDS TO REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT LEVELS THROUGH SUNDAY DESPITE INCREASING SOMEWHAT
DURING THE DAY TODAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.

LONG TERM...PERSISTENT SW FLOW SUNDAY AND MONDAY COULD BRING
HIGHER SWELLS TO THE COASTLINE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT....AND A
SURGE OF SW WINDS COULD APPROACH SCA LVLS FOR A SHORT PERIOD MON
NIGHT.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CEMPA
NEAR TERM...ARNOTT
SHORT TERM...ARNOTT
LONG TERM...CEMPA
AVIATION...ARNOTT/CEMPA
MARINE...ARNOTT/CEMPA



000
FXUS61 KGYX 010739
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
339 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY...BRINGING ANOTHER THREAT
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY DROP OFF
A LITTLE MORE BEHIND THIS FRONT. SUNDAY SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. WEAK LOW PRESSURE
ALOFT...SITUATED OVER QUEBEC...WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND SHOWERS OR
STORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY. THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD
WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED WITH A FEW ROUNDS OF SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON FOR NORTHERN NH AND NORTHERN MAINE.

CURRENT PATTERN: CYCLONIC FLOW THROUGH THE COLUMN HAS FULLY
ENVELOPED THE REGION AS OF THIS WRITING WITH EARLY MORNING WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING VERTICALLY STACKED LOW CENTERED OVER HUDSON
BAY. A PARADE OF LOCAL VORTICITY MAXIMA CAN ALSO BE SEEN ROTATING
AROUND THIS FEATURE...WITH A BAND OF ENHANCED MOISTURE STRETCHING
FROM CENTRAL ONTARIO SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES...AND JUST STARTING TO SCRAPE NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. A
SHORTWAVE IS COLLOCATED WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS
MOISTURE...WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT SPARKING A FEW SHOWERS /AND
EMBEDDED THUNDER/ ACROSS NEW YORK INTO FAR WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.
THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE NORTH OF NEW ENGLAND WILL CONTINUE TO RIDE
NORTH AND EAST...MAKING WAY FOR ANOTHER WAVE...NOW OVER SOUTHERN
ONTARIO...TO PULL EAST AND BE THE FOCUS FOR OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER
TODAY. FORECAST CHALLENGES CENTER AROUND PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL
WITH THIS FEATURE AS WELL AS THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY STRONG/SEVERE
CONVECTION.

THROUGH DAYBREAK: SHOWERS SEEN ON REGIONAL 88D MOSAIC CONTINUE TO
MAKE A RUN AT NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE.  EXPECT THAT WE/LL HAVE TO
WAIT FOR THE ACTIVITY IN NEW YORK TO MOVE INTO THE REGION FOR ANY
APPRECIABLE PRECIPITATION...WITH PERHAPS A SPRINKLE POSSIBLE OVER
COOS COUNTY NH THROUGH DAYBREAK.  OTHERWISE...JUST SOME MID LEVEL
CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOWER 50S NORTH THROUGH THE
LOWER 60 OVER SOUTHERN NH.

TODAY: ATTENTION TURNS TO UPSTREAM PV ANOMALY MENTIONED ABOVE.  THIS
FEATURE LOOKS TO SHARPEN AS IT ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH AND PUSH INTO NEW ENGLAND.  THIS FEATURE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED
BY 50KT JET AT H5 WITH A 1.5PV 85KT SPEED MAX.  MODEST HEIGHT FALLS
AND INCREASING DPVA WILL WORK IN TANDEM WITH MODEST MOISTURE
INCREASE AND GOOD LAPSE RATES THROUGH H5 /GIVEN COOL POOL ALOFT/
TO ALLOW CONVECTION CURRENTLY OVER NEW YORK TO EXPAND AS IT MOVES
THROUGH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...BEING JOINED LATER BY ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS/WEAK SURFACE FRONT.
THUS...EXPECT SHRAS TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE...WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER
BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD AS INSTABILITY GROWS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS
IMPRESSIVE...APPROACHING 50KTS IN THE 0-6KM LAYER WITH
LONG AND STRAIGHT...WEST-EAST ORIENTED HODOGRAPHS FAVORING MORE
CELLULAR STRUCTURE TO CELLS GIVEN ORTHOGONAL ORIENTATION OF THE
SHEAR TO THE FORCING FEATURE /FRONT/. INSTABILITY WILL BE
SOMEWHAT LIMITED GIVEN ONLY MODEST LLEVEL MOISTURE RECOVERY...BUT
1K J/KG MLCAPE APPEARS POSSIBLE TO ATTAIN OVER FAR NORTHERN NH /
NW MAINE CLOSER TO THE BEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.

SEVERE WEATHER THREATS:  PROFILES HAVE AN INVERTED-V LOOK TO
THEM...WHICH...WITH STRONG WINDS ALOFT SUGGEST A DAMAGING WIND
THREAT...ALTHOUGH MORE LOCALIZED GIVEN THE MORE CELLULAR NATURE TO
THE CONVECTION.  WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS 8-9KFT HIGHLIGHT A HAIL
THREAT AS WELL.  TOR THREAT VERY LOW GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED
INVERTED-V PROFILES.  OVERALL THREAT WILL BE TIED PRIMARILY TO
INSTABILITY...AND THEREFORE WILL BE GREATEST OVER FAR NORTHERN NH
AND NW MAINE...WHICH IS RIGHT IN LINE WITH THE NEW SWODY1 FROM SPC.
WILL INCLUDE ENHANCED WORDING IN THESE LOCATIONS...WITH LESS THUNDER
EMPHASIS FURTHER SOUTH. AND...WHILE THE ACTIVITY FURTHER SOUTH
WILL LIKELY NOT BE SEVERE...WILL MENTION GUSTY WINDS HERE AS WELL
GIVEN INVERTED-V NATURE TO THE PROFILES.

TEMPERATURES:  THE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER WILL SPELL A COOLER
DAY...PARTICULARLY OVER NORTHERN AREAS WHERE CONVECTION WILL BE MOST
WIDESPREAD.  HERE...HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE 70S.  DOWNSLOPE
WESTERLIES WILL PROMOTE HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S OVER SOUTHEASTERN NH
AND EXTREME SW MAINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE.

PATTERN/IMPLICATIONS: WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF
LONGWAVE TROUGH CENTERED OVER HUDSON BAY. OUR WEATHER WILL BE AT
THE MERCY OF SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THIS FEATURE...WITH A
RELATIVE LULL LIKELY FOR TONIGHT-SUNDAY BEHIND THE STRONGER WAVE
ON SATURDAY AND PRECEEDING ANOTHER STRONG WAVE ON MONDAY. DESPITE
RELATIVELY LOW HEIGHTS IN THE TROUGH...LLEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN NEAR NORMAL PROMOTING SURFACE TEMPERATURES NOT TOO FAR FROM
SEASONAL NORMS.

TONIGHT: ANY AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD VERY QUICKLY WANE
WITH PARTIAL CLEARING...ALTHOUGH WITH DEEPER MOISTURE POOL CLOSER TO
THE REGION...DO EXPECT SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS TO HANG AROUND
THROUGH THE NIGHT.  LOWS LOOK NOT ALL THAT DISSIMILAR TO TONIGHT
WITH MODEST COOLING TO THE LLEVEL AIRMASS BEHIND DEPARTING COLD
FRONT.  GIVEN AT LEAST SOME RAIN ACROSS THE REGION...AND ONLY MODEST
COOLING BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT...SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG
LOOKS TO BE A GOOD BET.

SUNDAY:  DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION AND WHILE
THERE WILL BE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SYNOPTIC FORCING FOR ASCENT...MID
LEVEL COLD POOL /T5S NEAR -15C/ AND DECENT MOISTURE ALONG SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE HUDSON BAY VORTEX WILL LIKELY ALLOW SOME AFTERNOON
SHOWERS TO SPARK OVER THE MOUNTAINS.  ACTIVITY LOOKS WEAKER AND FAR
LESS WIDESPREAD THAN ON SATURDAY...SO REALLY NOT A BAD DAY EVEN UP
NORTH.  OVER SOUTHERN NH/SOUTHWEST MAINE...EXPECT A DIURNAL INCREASE
IN CLOUDS...BUT NO PRECIPITATION.  TEMPS ALOFT WILL BE ABOUT 2C
COOLER THAN ON SATURDAY...BUT WITH LIKELY A BIT MORE SUN...SO HIGH
TEMPERATURES LOOK SIMILAR TO THE DAY PREVIOUS...PERHAPS A DEGREE/TWO
COOLER FOR SOUTHEAST NH AND SW MAINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER IN THE EXTENDED WILL BE THREAT OF STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

500MB PATTERN IS TRENDING TOWARD A MODIFIED +PNA PATTERN WITH
CLOSED LOW STARTING OUR OVER HUDSON AROUND 60N AND EVENTUALLY
SHIFT SWD INTO SRN QUEBEC BY MID WEEK BEFORE SHIFTING THE NE AND
WEAKENING AS IT RUNS INTO N ATLANTIC RIDGING. THIS WILL PULL SOME
COOLER AIR SWD BY MID TO LATE THIS WEEK...AND WILL KEEP THINGS
SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED AS IT PRODUCES CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. TOWARD NEXT
WEEKEND THE CORE OF THE JET WILL SHIFT BACK TO THE N...AND COULD
SEE THINGS START TO WARM AGAIN.

SUN NIGHT WILL START WITH BUILDING 500MB RIDGING OVER ME AN THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES WHICH WILL ALLOW FLOW TO SHIFT TO THE SW ANDTAP
INTO WARM AIR...SFC AND MID-LVL JUST TO OUR SW. AFTER AN MAINLY
CLEAR AND SEASONABLY COOL SUN NIGHT MONDAY WILL WARM UP WITH
SHRA/TSRA MOVING INTO NW ZONES IN THE AFTERNOON. AS THE 500 MB
CLOSED LOW DEEPENS TO THE WEST AND HEIGHTS FALL WILL SEE DECENT
INSTABILITY DEVELOP ALONG WITH INCREASED FLOW ALOFT. NAM IS
SUGGESTING BORDERLINE EML MOVING IN OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN BY LATE
MON AFT INTO MON EVE...WHICH WOULD AID IN THE FORMATION OF SEVER
STORMS. AT ANY RATE THUNDERSTORMS...WILL BE A GOOD BET AWAY FROM
THE COAST MON AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. ANOTHER WEAK WAVE SWINGS
AROUND THE CLOSED LOW ON TUE...SO ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRA AND TSRA
POSSIBLE...AS THE COOLER AIR WILL WORK IN BEHIND THIS WAVE
TUESDAY. WED THRU FRI WILL BE PARTLY SUNNY...BUT COLD AIR ALOFT
COULD PRODUCE SCT SHRA...MAYBE A TSRA EACH DAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE
MTNS.

TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT ON THE WARM SIDE MONDAY...AS HIGHS
WILL SURGE BACK INTO THE 85-90 RANGE IN MANY INLAND SPOTS...BUT
SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER ON THE COAST...AND ESPECIALLY THE
MID-COAST WHERE SW FLOW INCREASES. IT WILL BE A WARM AND MUGGY MON
NIGHT...WITH TEMPS AND HUMIDITY ON THE HIGHER SIDE TUE...BUT MORE
CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGREES. ONCE THE FRONT COMES
THRU IN THE AFTERNOON LOOK FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS TO DROP TO AROUND
NORMAL...LOW-MID 50S N...TO THE LOW 60S IN SRN NH...WITH HIGHS
RUNNING IN THE LOW 70S TO AROUND 80 THRU THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z SAT/...GENERALLY VFR WITH SOME INCREASING
MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS THROUGH DAYBREAK /ESPECIALLY NORTH/...WITH
SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG AT HIE BRINGING OCCASIONAL MVFR VSBYS.

FOR THE DAY ON SATURDAY...A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO THE
REGION WILL RESULT IN INCREASING CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE
AND NORTHWESTERN MAINE DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS AND CONTINUING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH MORE ISOLATED ACTIVITY FURTHER SOUTH.
THERE WILL LIKELY BE A FEW TEMPORARY PERIODS OF MVFR VSBYS/CIGS...
WITH IFR VSBYS POSSIBLE IN A FEW DOWNPOURS...BUT THE DAY WILL REMAIN
LARGELY VFR.  LEB/HIE/AUG/RKD STAND THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING
STORMS...WHICH COULD BE POTENTIALLY STRONG.  ANY CONVECTION WILL
QUICKLY WANE DURING THE EVENING WITH PARTIAL CLEARING EXPECTED.

WINDS: CALM-LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH DAYBREAK WILL BECOME WEST-
SOUTHWESTERLY 10G18KTS FOR THE DAY ON SATURDAY BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT
WEST-NORTHWESTERLY /5KTS OR LESS/ SATURDAY EVENING.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY...WITH A DIURNAL INCREASE IN
CUMULUS COVERAGE...AND PERHAPS A SPRINKLE/SHOWER AT HIE.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR SUN NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH VLY FOG
POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT. SCT SHRA/TSRA WILL IMPACT MOST OF THE
TERMINALS LATE MON AND MON NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...EXPECT WAVES AND SOUTHERLY WINDS TO REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT LEVELS THROUGH SUNDAY DESPITE INCREASING SOMEWHAT
DURING THE DAY TODAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.

LONG TERM...PERSISTENT SW FLOW SUNDAY AND MONDAY COULD BRING
HIGHER SWELLS TO THE COASTLINE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT....AND A
SURGE OF SW WINDS COULD APPROACH SCA LVLS FOR A SHORT PERIOD MON
NIGHT.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CEMPA
NEAR TERM...ARNOTT
SHORT TERM...ARNOTT
LONG TERM...CEMPA
AVIATION...ARNOTT/CEMPA
MARINE...ARNOTT/CEMPA



000
FXUS61 KGYX 010739
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
339 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY...BRINGING ANOTHER THREAT
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY DROP OFF
A LITTLE MORE BEHIND THIS FRONT. SUNDAY SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. WEAK LOW PRESSURE
ALOFT...SITUATED OVER QUEBEC...WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND SHOWERS OR
STORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY. THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD
WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED WITH A FEW ROUNDS OF SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON FOR NORTHERN NH AND NORTHERN MAINE.

CURRENT PATTERN: CYCLONIC FLOW THROUGH THE COLUMN HAS FULLY
ENVELOPED THE REGION AS OF THIS WRITING WITH EARLY MORNING WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING VERTICALLY STACKED LOW CENTERED OVER HUDSON
BAY. A PARADE OF LOCAL VORTICITY MAXIMA CAN ALSO BE SEEN ROTATING
AROUND THIS FEATURE...WITH A BAND OF ENHANCED MOISTURE STRETCHING
FROM CENTRAL ONTARIO SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES...AND JUST STARTING TO SCRAPE NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. A
SHORTWAVE IS COLLOCATED WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS
MOISTURE...WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT SPARKING A FEW SHOWERS /AND
EMBEDDED THUNDER/ ACROSS NEW YORK INTO FAR WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.
THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE NORTH OF NEW ENGLAND WILL CONTINUE TO RIDE
NORTH AND EAST...MAKING WAY FOR ANOTHER WAVE...NOW OVER SOUTHERN
ONTARIO...TO PULL EAST AND BE THE FOCUS FOR OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER
TODAY. FORECAST CHALLENGES CENTER AROUND PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL
WITH THIS FEATURE AS WELL AS THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY STRONG/SEVERE
CONVECTION.

THROUGH DAYBREAK: SHOWERS SEEN ON REGIONAL 88D MOSAIC CONTINUE TO
MAKE A RUN AT NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE.  EXPECT THAT WE/LL HAVE TO
WAIT FOR THE ACTIVITY IN NEW YORK TO MOVE INTO THE REGION FOR ANY
APPRECIABLE PRECIPITATION...WITH PERHAPS A SPRINKLE POSSIBLE OVER
COOS COUNTY NH THROUGH DAYBREAK.  OTHERWISE...JUST SOME MID LEVEL
CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOWER 50S NORTH THROUGH THE
LOWER 60 OVER SOUTHERN NH.

TODAY: ATTENTION TURNS TO UPSTREAM PV ANOMALY MENTIONED ABOVE.  THIS
FEATURE LOOKS TO SHARPEN AS IT ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH AND PUSH INTO NEW ENGLAND.  THIS FEATURE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED
BY 50KT JET AT H5 WITH A 1.5PV 85KT SPEED MAX.  MODEST HEIGHT FALLS
AND INCREASING DPVA WILL WORK IN TANDEM WITH MODEST MOISTURE
INCREASE AND GOOD LAPSE RATES THROUGH H5 /GIVEN COOL POOL ALOFT/
TO ALLOW CONVECTION CURRENTLY OVER NEW YORK TO EXPAND AS IT MOVES
THROUGH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...BEING JOINED LATER BY ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS/WEAK SURFACE FRONT.
THUS...EXPECT SHRAS TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE...WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER
BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD AS INSTABILITY GROWS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS
IMPRESSIVE...APPROACHING 50KTS IN THE 0-6KM LAYER WITH
LONG AND STRAIGHT...WEST-EAST ORIENTED HODOGRAPHS FAVORING MORE
CELLULAR STRUCTURE TO CELLS GIVEN ORTHOGONAL ORIENTATION OF THE
SHEAR TO THE FORCING FEATURE /FRONT/. INSTABILITY WILL BE
SOMEWHAT LIMITED GIVEN ONLY MODEST LLEVEL MOISTURE RECOVERY...BUT
1K J/KG MLCAPE APPEARS POSSIBLE TO ATTAIN OVER FAR NORTHERN NH /
NW MAINE CLOSER TO THE BEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.

SEVERE WEATHER THREATS:  PROFILES HAVE AN INVERTED-V LOOK TO
THEM...WHICH...WITH STRONG WINDS ALOFT SUGGEST A DAMAGING WIND
THREAT...ALTHOUGH MORE LOCALIZED GIVEN THE MORE CELLULAR NATURE TO
THE CONVECTION.  WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS 8-9KFT HIGHLIGHT A HAIL
THREAT AS WELL.  TOR THREAT VERY LOW GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED
INVERTED-V PROFILES.  OVERALL THREAT WILL BE TIED PRIMARILY TO
INSTABILITY...AND THEREFORE WILL BE GREATEST OVER FAR NORTHERN NH
AND NW MAINE...WHICH IS RIGHT IN LINE WITH THE NEW SWODY1 FROM SPC.
WILL INCLUDE ENHANCED WORDING IN THESE LOCATIONS...WITH LESS THUNDER
EMPHASIS FURTHER SOUTH. AND...WHILE THE ACTIVITY FURTHER SOUTH
WILL LIKELY NOT BE SEVERE...WILL MENTION GUSTY WINDS HERE AS WELL
GIVEN INVERTED-V NATURE TO THE PROFILES.

TEMPERATURES:  THE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER WILL SPELL A COOLER
DAY...PARTICULARLY OVER NORTHERN AREAS WHERE CONVECTION WILL BE MOST
WIDESPREAD.  HERE...HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE 70S.  DOWNSLOPE
WESTERLIES WILL PROMOTE HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S OVER SOUTHEASTERN NH
AND EXTREME SW MAINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE.

PATTERN/IMPLICATIONS: WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF
LONGWAVE TROUGH CENTERED OVER HUDSON BAY. OUR WEATHER WILL BE AT
THE MERCY OF SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THIS FEATURE...WITH A
RELATIVE LULL LIKELY FOR TONIGHT-SUNDAY BEHIND THE STRONGER WAVE
ON SATURDAY AND PRECEEDING ANOTHER STRONG WAVE ON MONDAY. DESPITE
RELATIVELY LOW HEIGHTS IN THE TROUGH...LLEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN NEAR NORMAL PROMOTING SURFACE TEMPERATURES NOT TOO FAR FROM
SEASONAL NORMS.

TONIGHT: ANY AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD VERY QUICKLY WANE
WITH PARTIAL CLEARING...ALTHOUGH WITH DEEPER MOISTURE POOL CLOSER TO
THE REGION...DO EXPECT SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS TO HANG AROUND
THROUGH THE NIGHT.  LOWS LOOK NOT ALL THAT DISSIMILAR TO TONIGHT
WITH MODEST COOLING TO THE LLEVEL AIRMASS BEHIND DEPARTING COLD
FRONT.  GIVEN AT LEAST SOME RAIN ACROSS THE REGION...AND ONLY MODEST
COOLING BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT...SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG
LOOKS TO BE A GOOD BET.

SUNDAY:  DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION AND WHILE
THERE WILL BE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SYNOPTIC FORCING FOR ASCENT...MID
LEVEL COLD POOL /T5S NEAR -15C/ AND DECENT MOISTURE ALONG SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE HUDSON BAY VORTEX WILL LIKELY ALLOW SOME AFTERNOON
SHOWERS TO SPARK OVER THE MOUNTAINS.  ACTIVITY LOOKS WEAKER AND FAR
LESS WIDESPREAD THAN ON SATURDAY...SO REALLY NOT A BAD DAY EVEN UP
NORTH.  OVER SOUTHERN NH/SOUTHWEST MAINE...EXPECT A DIURNAL INCREASE
IN CLOUDS...BUT NO PRECIPITATION.  TEMPS ALOFT WILL BE ABOUT 2C
COOLER THAN ON SATURDAY...BUT WITH LIKELY A BIT MORE SUN...SO HIGH
TEMPERATURES LOOK SIMILAR TO THE DAY PREVIOUS...PERHAPS A DEGREE/TWO
COOLER FOR SOUTHEAST NH AND SW MAINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER IN THE EXTENDED WILL BE THREAT OF STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

500MB PATTERN IS TRENDING TOWARD A MODIFIED +PNA PATTERN WITH
CLOSED LOW STARTING OUR OVER HUDSON AROUND 60N AND EVENTUALLY
SHIFT SWD INTO SRN QUEBEC BY MID WEEK BEFORE SHIFTING THE NE AND
WEAKENING AS IT RUNS INTO N ATLANTIC RIDGING. THIS WILL PULL SOME
COOLER AIR SWD BY MID TO LATE THIS WEEK...AND WILL KEEP THINGS
SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED AS IT PRODUCES CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. TOWARD NEXT
WEEKEND THE CORE OF THE JET WILL SHIFT BACK TO THE N...AND COULD
SEE THINGS START TO WARM AGAIN.

SUN NIGHT WILL START WITH BUILDING 500MB RIDGING OVER ME AN THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES WHICH WILL ALLOW FLOW TO SHIFT TO THE SW ANDTAP
INTO WARM AIR...SFC AND MID-LVL JUST TO OUR SW. AFTER AN MAINLY
CLEAR AND SEASONABLY COOL SUN NIGHT MONDAY WILL WARM UP WITH
SHRA/TSRA MOVING INTO NW ZONES IN THE AFTERNOON. AS THE 500 MB
CLOSED LOW DEEPENS TO THE WEST AND HEIGHTS FALL WILL SEE DECENT
INSTABILITY DEVELOP ALONG WITH INCREASED FLOW ALOFT. NAM IS
SUGGESTING BORDERLINE EML MOVING IN OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN BY LATE
MON AFT INTO MON EVE...WHICH WOULD AID IN THE FORMATION OF SEVER
STORMS. AT ANY RATE THUNDERSTORMS...WILL BE A GOOD BET AWAY FROM
THE COAST MON AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. ANOTHER WEAK WAVE SWINGS
AROUND THE CLOSED LOW ON TUE...SO ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRA AND TSRA
POSSIBLE...AS THE COOLER AIR WILL WORK IN BEHIND THIS WAVE
TUESDAY. WED THRU FRI WILL BE PARTLY SUNNY...BUT COLD AIR ALOFT
COULD PRODUCE SCT SHRA...MAYBE A TSRA EACH DAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE
MTNS.

TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT ON THE WARM SIDE MONDAY...AS HIGHS
WILL SURGE BACK INTO THE 85-90 RANGE IN MANY INLAND SPOTS...BUT
SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER ON THE COAST...AND ESPECIALLY THE
MID-COAST WHERE SW FLOW INCREASES. IT WILL BE A WARM AND MUGGY MON
NIGHT...WITH TEMPS AND HUMIDITY ON THE HIGHER SIDE TUE...BUT MORE
CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGREES. ONCE THE FRONT COMES
THRU IN THE AFTERNOON LOOK FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS TO DROP TO AROUND
NORMAL...LOW-MID 50S N...TO THE LOW 60S IN SRN NH...WITH HIGHS
RUNNING IN THE LOW 70S TO AROUND 80 THRU THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z SAT/...GENERALLY VFR WITH SOME INCREASING
MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS THROUGH DAYBREAK /ESPECIALLY NORTH/...WITH
SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG AT HIE BRINGING OCCASIONAL MVFR VSBYS.

FOR THE DAY ON SATURDAY...A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO THE
REGION WILL RESULT IN INCREASING CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE
AND NORTHWESTERN MAINE DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS AND CONTINUING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH MORE ISOLATED ACTIVITY FURTHER SOUTH.
THERE WILL LIKELY BE A FEW TEMPORARY PERIODS OF MVFR VSBYS/CIGS...
WITH IFR VSBYS POSSIBLE IN A FEW DOWNPOURS...BUT THE DAY WILL REMAIN
LARGELY VFR.  LEB/HIE/AUG/RKD STAND THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING
STORMS...WHICH COULD BE POTENTIALLY STRONG.  ANY CONVECTION WILL
QUICKLY WANE DURING THE EVENING WITH PARTIAL CLEARING EXPECTED.

WINDS: CALM-LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH DAYBREAK WILL BECOME WEST-
SOUTHWESTERLY 10G18KTS FOR THE DAY ON SATURDAY BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT
WEST-NORTHWESTERLY /5KTS OR LESS/ SATURDAY EVENING.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY...WITH A DIURNAL INCREASE IN
CUMULUS COVERAGE...AND PERHAPS A SPRINKLE/SHOWER AT HIE.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR SUN NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH VLY FOG
POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT. SCT SHRA/TSRA WILL IMPACT MOST OF THE
TERMINALS LATE MON AND MON NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...EXPECT WAVES AND SOUTHERLY WINDS TO REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT LEVELS THROUGH SUNDAY DESPITE INCREASING SOMEWHAT
DURING THE DAY TODAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.

LONG TERM...PERSISTENT SW FLOW SUNDAY AND MONDAY COULD BRING
HIGHER SWELLS TO THE COASTLINE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT....AND A
SURGE OF SW WINDS COULD APPROACH SCA LVLS FOR A SHORT PERIOD MON
NIGHT.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CEMPA
NEAR TERM...ARNOTT
SHORT TERM...ARNOTT
LONG TERM...CEMPA
AVIATION...ARNOTT/CEMPA
MARINE...ARNOTT/CEMPA



000
FXUS61 KGYX 010739
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
339 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY...BRINGING ANOTHER THREAT
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY DROP OFF
A LITTLE MORE BEHIND THIS FRONT. SUNDAY SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. WEAK LOW PRESSURE
ALOFT...SITUATED OVER QUEBEC...WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND SHOWERS OR
STORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY. THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD
WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED WITH A FEW ROUNDS OF SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON FOR NORTHERN NH AND NORTHERN MAINE.

CURRENT PATTERN: CYCLONIC FLOW THROUGH THE COLUMN HAS FULLY
ENVELOPED THE REGION AS OF THIS WRITING WITH EARLY MORNING WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING VERTICALLY STACKED LOW CENTERED OVER HUDSON
BAY. A PARADE OF LOCAL VORTICITY MAXIMA CAN ALSO BE SEEN ROTATING
AROUND THIS FEATURE...WITH A BAND OF ENHANCED MOISTURE STRETCHING
FROM CENTRAL ONTARIO SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES...AND JUST STARTING TO SCRAPE NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. A
SHORTWAVE IS COLLOCATED WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS
MOISTURE...WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT SPARKING A FEW SHOWERS /AND
EMBEDDED THUNDER/ ACROSS NEW YORK INTO FAR WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.
THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE NORTH OF NEW ENGLAND WILL CONTINUE TO RIDE
NORTH AND EAST...MAKING WAY FOR ANOTHER WAVE...NOW OVER SOUTHERN
ONTARIO...TO PULL EAST AND BE THE FOCUS FOR OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER
TODAY. FORECAST CHALLENGES CENTER AROUND PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL
WITH THIS FEATURE AS WELL AS THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY STRONG/SEVERE
CONVECTION.

THROUGH DAYBREAK: SHOWERS SEEN ON REGIONAL 88D MOSAIC CONTINUE TO
MAKE A RUN AT NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE.  EXPECT THAT WE/LL HAVE TO
WAIT FOR THE ACTIVITY IN NEW YORK TO MOVE INTO THE REGION FOR ANY
APPRECIABLE PRECIPITATION...WITH PERHAPS A SPRINKLE POSSIBLE OVER
COOS COUNTY NH THROUGH DAYBREAK.  OTHERWISE...JUST SOME MID LEVEL
CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOWER 50S NORTH THROUGH THE
LOWER 60 OVER SOUTHERN NH.

TODAY: ATTENTION TURNS TO UPSTREAM PV ANOMALY MENTIONED ABOVE.  THIS
FEATURE LOOKS TO SHARPEN AS IT ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH AND PUSH INTO NEW ENGLAND.  THIS FEATURE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED
BY 50KT JET AT H5 WITH A 1.5PV 85KT SPEED MAX.  MODEST HEIGHT FALLS
AND INCREASING DPVA WILL WORK IN TANDEM WITH MODEST MOISTURE
INCREASE AND GOOD LAPSE RATES THROUGH H5 /GIVEN COOL POOL ALOFT/
TO ALLOW CONVECTION CURRENTLY OVER NEW YORK TO EXPAND AS IT MOVES
THROUGH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...BEING JOINED LATER BY ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS/WEAK SURFACE FRONT.
THUS...EXPECT SHRAS TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE...WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER
BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD AS INSTABILITY GROWS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS
IMPRESSIVE...APPROACHING 50KTS IN THE 0-6KM LAYER WITH
LONG AND STRAIGHT...WEST-EAST ORIENTED HODOGRAPHS FAVORING MORE
CELLULAR STRUCTURE TO CELLS GIVEN ORTHOGONAL ORIENTATION OF THE
SHEAR TO THE FORCING FEATURE /FRONT/. INSTABILITY WILL BE
SOMEWHAT LIMITED GIVEN ONLY MODEST LLEVEL MOISTURE RECOVERY...BUT
1K J/KG MLCAPE APPEARS POSSIBLE TO ATTAIN OVER FAR NORTHERN NH /
NW MAINE CLOSER TO THE BEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.

SEVERE WEATHER THREATS:  PROFILES HAVE AN INVERTED-V LOOK TO
THEM...WHICH...WITH STRONG WINDS ALOFT SUGGEST A DAMAGING WIND
THREAT...ALTHOUGH MORE LOCALIZED GIVEN THE MORE CELLULAR NATURE TO
THE CONVECTION.  WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS 8-9KFT HIGHLIGHT A HAIL
THREAT AS WELL.  TOR THREAT VERY LOW GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED
INVERTED-V PROFILES.  OVERALL THREAT WILL BE TIED PRIMARILY TO
INSTABILITY...AND THEREFORE WILL BE GREATEST OVER FAR NORTHERN NH
AND NW MAINE...WHICH IS RIGHT IN LINE WITH THE NEW SWODY1 FROM SPC.
WILL INCLUDE ENHANCED WORDING IN THESE LOCATIONS...WITH LESS THUNDER
EMPHASIS FURTHER SOUTH. AND...WHILE THE ACTIVITY FURTHER SOUTH
WILL LIKELY NOT BE SEVERE...WILL MENTION GUSTY WINDS HERE AS WELL
GIVEN INVERTED-V NATURE TO THE PROFILES.

TEMPERATURES:  THE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER WILL SPELL A COOLER
DAY...PARTICULARLY OVER NORTHERN AREAS WHERE CONVECTION WILL BE MOST
WIDESPREAD.  HERE...HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE 70S.  DOWNSLOPE
WESTERLIES WILL PROMOTE HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S OVER SOUTHEASTERN NH
AND EXTREME SW MAINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE.

PATTERN/IMPLICATIONS: WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF
LONGWAVE TROUGH CENTERED OVER HUDSON BAY. OUR WEATHER WILL BE AT
THE MERCY OF SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THIS FEATURE...WITH A
RELATIVE LULL LIKELY FOR TONIGHT-SUNDAY BEHIND THE STRONGER WAVE
ON SATURDAY AND PRECEEDING ANOTHER STRONG WAVE ON MONDAY. DESPITE
RELATIVELY LOW HEIGHTS IN THE TROUGH...LLEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN NEAR NORMAL PROMOTING SURFACE TEMPERATURES NOT TOO FAR FROM
SEASONAL NORMS.

TONIGHT: ANY AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD VERY QUICKLY WANE
WITH PARTIAL CLEARING...ALTHOUGH WITH DEEPER MOISTURE POOL CLOSER TO
THE REGION...DO EXPECT SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS TO HANG AROUND
THROUGH THE NIGHT.  LOWS LOOK NOT ALL THAT DISSIMILAR TO TONIGHT
WITH MODEST COOLING TO THE LLEVEL AIRMASS BEHIND DEPARTING COLD
FRONT.  GIVEN AT LEAST SOME RAIN ACROSS THE REGION...AND ONLY MODEST
COOLING BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT...SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG
LOOKS TO BE A GOOD BET.

SUNDAY:  DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION AND WHILE
THERE WILL BE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SYNOPTIC FORCING FOR ASCENT...MID
LEVEL COLD POOL /T5S NEAR -15C/ AND DECENT MOISTURE ALONG SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE HUDSON BAY VORTEX WILL LIKELY ALLOW SOME AFTERNOON
SHOWERS TO SPARK OVER THE MOUNTAINS.  ACTIVITY LOOKS WEAKER AND FAR
LESS WIDESPREAD THAN ON SATURDAY...SO REALLY NOT A BAD DAY EVEN UP
NORTH.  OVER SOUTHERN NH/SOUTHWEST MAINE...EXPECT A DIURNAL INCREASE
IN CLOUDS...BUT NO PRECIPITATION.  TEMPS ALOFT WILL BE ABOUT 2C
COOLER THAN ON SATURDAY...BUT WITH LIKELY A BIT MORE SUN...SO HIGH
TEMPERATURES LOOK SIMILAR TO THE DAY PREVIOUS...PERHAPS A DEGREE/TWO
COOLER FOR SOUTHEAST NH AND SW MAINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER IN THE EXTENDED WILL BE THREAT OF STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

500MB PATTERN IS TRENDING TOWARD A MODIFIED +PNA PATTERN WITH
CLOSED LOW STARTING OUR OVER HUDSON AROUND 60N AND EVENTUALLY
SHIFT SWD INTO SRN QUEBEC BY MID WEEK BEFORE SHIFTING THE NE AND
WEAKENING AS IT RUNS INTO N ATLANTIC RIDGING. THIS WILL PULL SOME
COOLER AIR SWD BY MID TO LATE THIS WEEK...AND WILL KEEP THINGS
SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED AS IT PRODUCES CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. TOWARD NEXT
WEEKEND THE CORE OF THE JET WILL SHIFT BACK TO THE N...AND COULD
SEE THINGS START TO WARM AGAIN.

SUN NIGHT WILL START WITH BUILDING 500MB RIDGING OVER ME AN THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES WHICH WILL ALLOW FLOW TO SHIFT TO THE SW ANDTAP
INTO WARM AIR...SFC AND MID-LVL JUST TO OUR SW. AFTER AN MAINLY
CLEAR AND SEASONABLY COOL SUN NIGHT MONDAY WILL WARM UP WITH
SHRA/TSRA MOVING INTO NW ZONES IN THE AFTERNOON. AS THE 500 MB
CLOSED LOW DEEPENS TO THE WEST AND HEIGHTS FALL WILL SEE DECENT
INSTABILITY DEVELOP ALONG WITH INCREASED FLOW ALOFT. NAM IS
SUGGESTING BORDERLINE EML MOVING IN OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN BY LATE
MON AFT INTO MON EVE...WHICH WOULD AID IN THE FORMATION OF SEVER
STORMS. AT ANY RATE THUNDERSTORMS...WILL BE A GOOD BET AWAY FROM
THE COAST MON AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. ANOTHER WEAK WAVE SWINGS
AROUND THE CLOSED LOW ON TUE...SO ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRA AND TSRA
POSSIBLE...AS THE COOLER AIR WILL WORK IN BEHIND THIS WAVE
TUESDAY. WED THRU FRI WILL BE PARTLY SUNNY...BUT COLD AIR ALOFT
COULD PRODUCE SCT SHRA...MAYBE A TSRA EACH DAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE
MTNS.

TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT ON THE WARM SIDE MONDAY...AS HIGHS
WILL SURGE BACK INTO THE 85-90 RANGE IN MANY INLAND SPOTS...BUT
SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER ON THE COAST...AND ESPECIALLY THE
MID-COAST WHERE SW FLOW INCREASES. IT WILL BE A WARM AND MUGGY MON
NIGHT...WITH TEMPS AND HUMIDITY ON THE HIGHER SIDE TUE...BUT MORE
CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGREES. ONCE THE FRONT COMES
THRU IN THE AFTERNOON LOOK FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS TO DROP TO AROUND
NORMAL...LOW-MID 50S N...TO THE LOW 60S IN SRN NH...WITH HIGHS
RUNNING IN THE LOW 70S TO AROUND 80 THRU THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z SAT/...GENERALLY VFR WITH SOME INCREASING
MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS THROUGH DAYBREAK /ESPECIALLY NORTH/...WITH
SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG AT HIE BRINGING OCCASIONAL MVFR VSBYS.

FOR THE DAY ON SATURDAY...A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO THE
REGION WILL RESULT IN INCREASING CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE
AND NORTHWESTERN MAINE DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS AND CONTINUING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH MORE ISOLATED ACTIVITY FURTHER SOUTH.
THERE WILL LIKELY BE A FEW TEMPORARY PERIODS OF MVFR VSBYS/CIGS...
WITH IFR VSBYS POSSIBLE IN A FEW DOWNPOURS...BUT THE DAY WILL REMAIN
LARGELY VFR.  LEB/HIE/AUG/RKD STAND THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING
STORMS...WHICH COULD BE POTENTIALLY STRONG.  ANY CONVECTION WILL
QUICKLY WANE DURING THE EVENING WITH PARTIAL CLEARING EXPECTED.

WINDS: CALM-LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH DAYBREAK WILL BECOME WEST-
SOUTHWESTERLY 10G18KTS FOR THE DAY ON SATURDAY BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT
WEST-NORTHWESTERLY /5KTS OR LESS/ SATURDAY EVENING.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY...WITH A DIURNAL INCREASE IN
CUMULUS COVERAGE...AND PERHAPS A SPRINKLE/SHOWER AT HIE.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR SUN NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH VLY FOG
POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT. SCT SHRA/TSRA WILL IMPACT MOST OF THE
TERMINALS LATE MON AND MON NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...EXPECT WAVES AND SOUTHERLY WINDS TO REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT LEVELS THROUGH SUNDAY DESPITE INCREASING SOMEWHAT
DURING THE DAY TODAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.

LONG TERM...PERSISTENT SW FLOW SUNDAY AND MONDAY COULD BRING
HIGHER SWELLS TO THE COASTLINE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT....AND A
SURGE OF SW WINDS COULD APPROACH SCA LVLS FOR A SHORT PERIOD MON
NIGHT.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CEMPA
NEAR TERM...ARNOTT
SHORT TERM...ARNOTT
LONG TERM...CEMPA
AVIATION...ARNOTT/CEMPA
MARINE...ARNOTT/CEMPA



000
FXUS61 KGYX 010739
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
339 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY...BRINGING ANOTHER THREAT
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY DROP OFF
A LITTLE MORE BEHIND THIS FRONT. SUNDAY SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. WEAK LOW PRESSURE
ALOFT...SITUATED OVER QUEBEC...WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND SHOWERS OR
STORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY. THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD
WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED WITH A FEW ROUNDS OF SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON FOR NORTHERN NH AND NORTHERN MAINE.

CURRENT PATTERN: CYCLONIC FLOW THROUGH THE COLUMN HAS FULLY
ENVELOPED THE REGION AS OF THIS WRITING WITH EARLY MORNING WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING VERTICALLY STACKED LOW CENTERED OVER HUDSON
BAY. A PARADE OF LOCAL VORTICITY MAXIMA CAN ALSO BE SEEN ROTATING
AROUND THIS FEATURE...WITH A BAND OF ENHANCED MOISTURE STRETCHING
FROM CENTRAL ONTARIO SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES...AND JUST STARTING TO SCRAPE NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. A
SHORTWAVE IS COLLOCATED WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS
MOISTURE...WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT SPARKING A FEW SHOWERS /AND
EMBEDDED THUNDER/ ACROSS NEW YORK INTO FAR WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.
THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE NORTH OF NEW ENGLAND WILL CONTINUE TO RIDE
NORTH AND EAST...MAKING WAY FOR ANOTHER WAVE...NOW OVER SOUTHERN
ONTARIO...TO PULL EAST AND BE THE FOCUS FOR OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER
TODAY. FORECAST CHALLENGES CENTER AROUND PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL
WITH THIS FEATURE AS WELL AS THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY STRONG/SEVERE
CONVECTION.

THROUGH DAYBREAK: SHOWERS SEEN ON REGIONAL 88D MOSAIC CONTINUE TO
MAKE A RUN AT NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE.  EXPECT THAT WE/LL HAVE TO
WAIT FOR THE ACTIVITY IN NEW YORK TO MOVE INTO THE REGION FOR ANY
APPRECIABLE PRECIPITATION...WITH PERHAPS A SPRINKLE POSSIBLE OVER
COOS COUNTY NH THROUGH DAYBREAK.  OTHERWISE...JUST SOME MID LEVEL
CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOWER 50S NORTH THROUGH THE
LOWER 60 OVER SOUTHERN NH.

TODAY: ATTENTION TURNS TO UPSTREAM PV ANOMALY MENTIONED ABOVE.  THIS
FEATURE LOOKS TO SHARPEN AS IT ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH AND PUSH INTO NEW ENGLAND.  THIS FEATURE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED
BY 50KT JET AT H5 WITH A 1.5PV 85KT SPEED MAX.  MODEST HEIGHT FALLS
AND INCREASING DPVA WILL WORK IN TANDEM WITH MODEST MOISTURE
INCREASE AND GOOD LAPSE RATES THROUGH H5 /GIVEN COOL POOL ALOFT/
TO ALLOW CONVECTION CURRENTLY OVER NEW YORK TO EXPAND AS IT MOVES
THROUGH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...BEING JOINED LATER BY ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS/WEAK SURFACE FRONT.
THUS...EXPECT SHRAS TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE...WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER
BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD AS INSTABILITY GROWS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS
IMPRESSIVE...APPROACHING 50KTS IN THE 0-6KM LAYER WITH
LONG AND STRAIGHT...WEST-EAST ORIENTED HODOGRAPHS FAVORING MORE
CELLULAR STRUCTURE TO CELLS GIVEN ORTHOGONAL ORIENTATION OF THE
SHEAR TO THE FORCING FEATURE /FRONT/. INSTABILITY WILL BE
SOMEWHAT LIMITED GIVEN ONLY MODEST LLEVEL MOISTURE RECOVERY...BUT
1K J/KG MLCAPE APPEARS POSSIBLE TO ATTAIN OVER FAR NORTHERN NH /
NW MAINE CLOSER TO THE BEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.

SEVERE WEATHER THREATS:  PROFILES HAVE AN INVERTED-V LOOK TO
THEM...WHICH...WITH STRONG WINDS ALOFT SUGGEST A DAMAGING WIND
THREAT...ALTHOUGH MORE LOCALIZED GIVEN THE MORE CELLULAR NATURE TO
THE CONVECTION.  WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS 8-9KFT HIGHLIGHT A HAIL
THREAT AS WELL.  TOR THREAT VERY LOW GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED
INVERTED-V PROFILES.  OVERALL THREAT WILL BE TIED PRIMARILY TO
INSTABILITY...AND THEREFORE WILL BE GREATEST OVER FAR NORTHERN NH
AND NW MAINE...WHICH IS RIGHT IN LINE WITH THE NEW SWODY1 FROM SPC.
WILL INCLUDE ENHANCED WORDING IN THESE LOCATIONS...WITH LESS THUNDER
EMPHASIS FURTHER SOUTH. AND...WHILE THE ACTIVITY FURTHER SOUTH
WILL LIKELY NOT BE SEVERE...WILL MENTION GUSTY WINDS HERE AS WELL
GIVEN INVERTED-V NATURE TO THE PROFILES.

TEMPERATURES:  THE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER WILL SPELL A COOLER
DAY...PARTICULARLY OVER NORTHERN AREAS WHERE CONVECTION WILL BE MOST
WIDESPREAD.  HERE...HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE 70S.  DOWNSLOPE
WESTERLIES WILL PROMOTE HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S OVER SOUTHEASTERN NH
AND EXTREME SW MAINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE.

PATTERN/IMPLICATIONS: WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF
LONGWAVE TROUGH CENTERED OVER HUDSON BAY. OUR WEATHER WILL BE AT
THE MERCY OF SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THIS FEATURE...WITH A
RELATIVE LULL LIKELY FOR TONIGHT-SUNDAY BEHIND THE STRONGER WAVE
ON SATURDAY AND PRECEEDING ANOTHER STRONG WAVE ON MONDAY. DESPITE
RELATIVELY LOW HEIGHTS IN THE TROUGH...LLEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN NEAR NORMAL PROMOTING SURFACE TEMPERATURES NOT TOO FAR FROM
SEASONAL NORMS.

TONIGHT: ANY AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD VERY QUICKLY WANE
WITH PARTIAL CLEARING...ALTHOUGH WITH DEEPER MOISTURE POOL CLOSER TO
THE REGION...DO EXPECT SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS TO HANG AROUND
THROUGH THE NIGHT.  LOWS LOOK NOT ALL THAT DISSIMILAR TO TONIGHT
WITH MODEST COOLING TO THE LLEVEL AIRMASS BEHIND DEPARTING COLD
FRONT.  GIVEN AT LEAST SOME RAIN ACROSS THE REGION...AND ONLY MODEST
COOLING BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT...SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG
LOOKS TO BE A GOOD BET.

SUNDAY:  DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION AND WHILE
THERE WILL BE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SYNOPTIC FORCING FOR ASCENT...MID
LEVEL COLD POOL /T5S NEAR -15C/ AND DECENT MOISTURE ALONG SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE HUDSON BAY VORTEX WILL LIKELY ALLOW SOME AFTERNOON
SHOWERS TO SPARK OVER THE MOUNTAINS.  ACTIVITY LOOKS WEAKER AND FAR
LESS WIDESPREAD THAN ON SATURDAY...SO REALLY NOT A BAD DAY EVEN UP
NORTH.  OVER SOUTHERN NH/SOUTHWEST MAINE...EXPECT A DIURNAL INCREASE
IN CLOUDS...BUT NO PRECIPITATION.  TEMPS ALOFT WILL BE ABOUT 2C
COOLER THAN ON SATURDAY...BUT WITH LIKELY A BIT MORE SUN...SO HIGH
TEMPERATURES LOOK SIMILAR TO THE DAY PREVIOUS...PERHAPS A DEGREE/TWO
COOLER FOR SOUTHEAST NH AND SW MAINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER IN THE EXTENDED WILL BE THREAT OF STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

500MB PATTERN IS TRENDING TOWARD A MODIFIED +PNA PATTERN WITH
CLOSED LOW STARTING OUR OVER HUDSON AROUND 60N AND EVENTUALLY
SHIFT SWD INTO SRN QUEBEC BY MID WEEK BEFORE SHIFTING THE NE AND
WEAKENING AS IT RUNS INTO N ATLANTIC RIDGING. THIS WILL PULL SOME
COOLER AIR SWD BY MID TO LATE THIS WEEK...AND WILL KEEP THINGS
SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED AS IT PRODUCES CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. TOWARD NEXT
WEEKEND THE CORE OF THE JET WILL SHIFT BACK TO THE N...AND COULD
SEE THINGS START TO WARM AGAIN.

SUN NIGHT WILL START WITH BUILDING 500MB RIDGING OVER ME AN THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES WHICH WILL ALLOW FLOW TO SHIFT TO THE SW ANDTAP
INTO WARM AIR...SFC AND MID-LVL JUST TO OUR SW. AFTER AN MAINLY
CLEAR AND SEASONABLY COOL SUN NIGHT MONDAY WILL WARM UP WITH
SHRA/TSRA MOVING INTO NW ZONES IN THE AFTERNOON. AS THE 500 MB
CLOSED LOW DEEPENS TO THE WEST AND HEIGHTS FALL WILL SEE DECENT
INSTABILITY DEVELOP ALONG WITH INCREASED FLOW ALOFT. NAM IS
SUGGESTING BORDERLINE EML MOVING IN OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN BY LATE
MON AFT INTO MON EVE...WHICH WOULD AID IN THE FORMATION OF SEVER
STORMS. AT ANY RATE THUNDERSTORMS...WILL BE A GOOD BET AWAY FROM
THE COAST MON AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. ANOTHER WEAK WAVE SWINGS
AROUND THE CLOSED LOW ON TUE...SO ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRA AND TSRA
POSSIBLE...AS THE COOLER AIR WILL WORK IN BEHIND THIS WAVE
TUESDAY. WED THRU FRI WILL BE PARTLY SUNNY...BUT COLD AIR ALOFT
COULD PRODUCE SCT SHRA...MAYBE A TSRA EACH DAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE
MTNS.

TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT ON THE WARM SIDE MONDAY...AS HIGHS
WILL SURGE BACK INTO THE 85-90 RANGE IN MANY INLAND SPOTS...BUT
SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER ON THE COAST...AND ESPECIALLY THE
MID-COAST WHERE SW FLOW INCREASES. IT WILL BE A WARM AND MUGGY MON
NIGHT...WITH TEMPS AND HUMIDITY ON THE HIGHER SIDE TUE...BUT MORE
CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGREES. ONCE THE FRONT COMES
THRU IN THE AFTERNOON LOOK FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS TO DROP TO AROUND
NORMAL...LOW-MID 50S N...TO THE LOW 60S IN SRN NH...WITH HIGHS
RUNNING IN THE LOW 70S TO AROUND 80 THRU THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z SAT/...GENERALLY VFR WITH SOME INCREASING
MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS THROUGH DAYBREAK /ESPECIALLY NORTH/...WITH
SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG AT HIE BRINGING OCCASIONAL MVFR VSBYS.

FOR THE DAY ON SATURDAY...A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO THE
REGION WILL RESULT IN INCREASING CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE
AND NORTHWESTERN MAINE DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS AND CONTINUING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH MORE ISOLATED ACTIVITY FURTHER SOUTH.
THERE WILL LIKELY BE A FEW TEMPORARY PERIODS OF MVFR VSBYS/CIGS...
WITH IFR VSBYS POSSIBLE IN A FEW DOWNPOURS...BUT THE DAY WILL REMAIN
LARGELY VFR.  LEB/HIE/AUG/RKD STAND THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING
STORMS...WHICH COULD BE POTENTIALLY STRONG.  ANY CONVECTION WILL
QUICKLY WANE DURING THE EVENING WITH PARTIAL CLEARING EXPECTED.

WINDS: CALM-LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH DAYBREAK WILL BECOME WEST-
SOUTHWESTERLY 10G18KTS FOR THE DAY ON SATURDAY BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT
WEST-NORTHWESTERLY /5KTS OR LESS/ SATURDAY EVENING.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY...WITH A DIURNAL INCREASE IN
CUMULUS COVERAGE...AND PERHAPS A SPRINKLE/SHOWER AT HIE.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR SUN NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH VLY FOG
POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT. SCT SHRA/TSRA WILL IMPACT MOST OF THE
TERMINALS LATE MON AND MON NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...EXPECT WAVES AND SOUTHERLY WINDS TO REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT LEVELS THROUGH SUNDAY DESPITE INCREASING SOMEWHAT
DURING THE DAY TODAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.

LONG TERM...PERSISTENT SW FLOW SUNDAY AND MONDAY COULD BRING
HIGHER SWELLS TO THE COASTLINE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT....AND A
SURGE OF SW WINDS COULD APPROACH SCA LVLS FOR A SHORT PERIOD MON
NIGHT.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CEMPA
NEAR TERM...ARNOTT
SHORT TERM...ARNOTT
LONG TERM...CEMPA
AVIATION...ARNOTT/CEMPA
MARINE...ARNOTT/CEMPA




000
FXUS61 KGYX 010529 AAB
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
129 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER
THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BEHIND THIS FRONT WE WILL
SEE ANOTHER DROP IN TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE
ALOFT...SITUATED OVER QUEBEC...WILL BRING A THREAT FOR SHOWERS OR
STORMS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. COOLER AIR AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
MOVE IN FOR THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK. BY LATE IN THE
WEEK...LOW PRESSURE MAY FORM ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC
SEABOARD...BRINGING MORE RAIN TO OUR REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
125AM UPDATE: UPDATE TO SLOW POPS JUST A TAD...AND HAVE LOWERED
TEMPERATURES THAT ARE CURRENTLY NEARING INHERITED OVERNIGHT LOWS
BASED ON SLIGHTLY SLOWER ARRIVAL OF MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER.

23Z UPDATE...
NOT MUCH TO SPEAK OF THIS EVENING AS DIURNAL CLOUDS QUICKLY DRYING
UP AND WINDS ARE DROPPING OFF. RADAR SHOWING CONVECTION AHEAD OF A
WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHING IN FROM THE WEST BUT BEST ACTIVITY
GENERALLY NORTH OF THE BORDER. SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS
PUSHING INTO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK BEGINNING TO FIZZLE AS
IT HEADS EAST AND OUT RUNS BEST INSTABILITY. CAN`T RULE OUT A
STRAY LATE NIGHT SHOWER IN BORDER ZONES IN THE FAR NORTH BUT THE
MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD SEE A MOSTLY CLEAR AND DRY
NIGHT. TEMPS CURRENTLY RUNNING ABOVE FORECAST AND HAVE TWEAKED
THOSE BASED ON CURRENT OBS. NO OTHER CHANGES PLANNED ATTM.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AT 18Z...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WAS EXITING THE COAST...WITH A
SURFACE COLD FRONT SITUATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES. GOES WATER VAPOR
SHOWED AN UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER HUDSON BAY. ANOTHER WARM DAY
ACROSS THE AREA...BUT NOTICEABLY LESS HUMID AS WESTERLY FLOW
INTRODUCED DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT. INSTABILITY CLOUDS WILL
MELT AWAY THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING. OVER NIGHT...OUTSIDE
OF A FEW STRAY CLOUDS FOR THE MOUNTAINS...MOSTLY CLEAR WITH PATCHY
LATE NIGHT VALLEY FOG. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS
TO LOWER AND MID 60S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
ON SATURDAY...A SHORTWAVE IMPULSE PIVOTING AROUND THE UPPER LOW
WILL CROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 70S AND 80S. WITH COOLER AIR
MOVING IN ALOFT...AND LOWERING FREEZING LEVELS...SOME OF THE
STRONGER CELLS MAY PRODUCE HAIL NEAR SEVERE THRESHOLD...ALONG
WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS. THE BEST CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL BE
FAR NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE INTO THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS OF
MAINE. FOR NOW...I`VE LIMITED ENHANCED WORDING TO GUSTY WINDS AND
SMALL HAIL AND CONFINED THE AREA TO FAR NORTHERN AND EASTERN
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA GIVEN SOME CONTINUED UNCERTAINTIES.

CONVECTION SHOULD END QUICKLY SATURDAY EVENING WITH LOSS OF
HEATING AND AS COLD FRONT CLEARS THE COAST. SOME CLOUDS AND
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS COULD LINGER IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN...OTHERWISE
A MAINLY CLEAR AND SEASONABLY COOL NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER AND
MID 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS...AND IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60 ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A HIGHLY PERSISTENT PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CONUS OVER
THE NEXT WEEK OR SO. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES WHILE A PERSISTENT
CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE NORTHEAST.

A MORE SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BEGIN TO DIG SOUTHWARD
FROM CANADA ON MONDAY. THIS...IN CONJUNCTION WITH A SLOW MOVING
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS NEW ENGLAND LATE IN THE DAY AND IN THE
EVENING HOURS. EXPECT ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY
NIGHT.

STRONG CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS
ON TUESDAY WITH POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM. SIMILAR CONDITIONS WILL
OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY...WITH MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS DUE TO
STEEP LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH VERY COLD AIR ALOFT. THE
MORNINGS WILL LIKELY BEGIN WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...WITH CLOUDS
QUICKLY BUILDING AND THICKENING OVER THE REGION WITH THE DAYTIME
HEATING.

ON FRIDAY...CYCLOGENESIS WILL LIKELY OCCUR ALONG THE SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND COASTLINE WITH YET MORE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY DIGGING SOUTH
FROM CANADA. THIS SLOW MOVING SYSTEM IN COMBINATION WITH DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL LIKELY BRING PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z SAT/...GENERALLY VFR WITH SOME INCREASING
MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS THROUGH DAYBREAK /ESPECIALLY NORTH/...WITH
SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG AT HIE BRINGING OCCASIONAL MVFR VSBYS.

FOR THE DAY ON SATURDAY...A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO THE
REGION WILL RESULT IN INCREASING CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE
AND NORTHWESTERN MAINE DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS AND CONTINUING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH MORE ISOLATED ACTIVITY FURTHER SOUTH.
THERE WILL LIKELY BE A FEW TEMPORARY PERIODS OF MVFR VSBYS/CIGS...
WITH IFR VSBYS POSSIBLE IN A FEW DOWNPOURS...BUT THE DAY WILL REMAIN
LARGELY VFR.  LEB/HIE/AUG/RKD STAND THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING
STORMS...WHICH COULD BE POTENTIALLY STRONG.  ANY CONVECTION WILL
QUICKLY WANE DURING THE EVENING WITH PARTIAL CLEARING EXPECTED.

WINDS: CALM-LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH DAYBREAK WILL BECOME WEST-
SOUTHWESTERLY 10G18KTS FOR THE DAY ON SATURDAY BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT
WEST-NORTHWESTERLY /5KTS OR LESS/ SATURDAY EVENING.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR SAT NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY... WITH VLY FOG
POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT. SCT SHRA/TSRA WILL IMPACT MOST OF THE
TERMINALS LATE MON AND MON NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...SOUTHERLY FLOW LATE SAT AND
SAT EVENING MAY BRIEFLY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT OUTSIDE THE BAYS
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...OTHERWISE QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS
PERIOD.

LONG TERM...PERSISTENT SW FLOW SUNDAY AND MONDAY COULD BRING
HIGHER SWELLS TO THE COASTLINE SUNDAY NIGHT....WHICH COULD LINGER
THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...ARNOTT
AVIATION...ARNOTT




000
FXUS61 KGYX 010529 AAB
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
129 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER
THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BEHIND THIS FRONT WE WILL
SEE ANOTHER DROP IN TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE
ALOFT...SITUATED OVER QUEBEC...WILL BRING A THREAT FOR SHOWERS OR
STORMS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. COOLER AIR AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
MOVE IN FOR THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK. BY LATE IN THE
WEEK...LOW PRESSURE MAY FORM ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC
SEABOARD...BRINGING MORE RAIN TO OUR REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
125AM UPDATE: UPDATE TO SLOW POPS JUST A TAD...AND HAVE LOWERED
TEMPERATURES THAT ARE CURRENTLY NEARING INHERITED OVERNIGHT LOWS
BASED ON SLIGHTLY SLOWER ARRIVAL OF MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER.

23Z UPDATE...
NOT MUCH TO SPEAK OF THIS EVENING AS DIURNAL CLOUDS QUICKLY DRYING
UP AND WINDS ARE DROPPING OFF. RADAR SHOWING CONVECTION AHEAD OF A
WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHING IN FROM THE WEST BUT BEST ACTIVITY
GENERALLY NORTH OF THE BORDER. SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS
PUSHING INTO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK BEGINNING TO FIZZLE AS
IT HEADS EAST AND OUT RUNS BEST INSTABILITY. CAN`T RULE OUT A
STRAY LATE NIGHT SHOWER IN BORDER ZONES IN THE FAR NORTH BUT THE
MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD SEE A MOSTLY CLEAR AND DRY
NIGHT. TEMPS CURRENTLY RUNNING ABOVE FORECAST AND HAVE TWEAKED
THOSE BASED ON CURRENT OBS. NO OTHER CHANGES PLANNED ATTM.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AT 18Z...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WAS EXITING THE COAST...WITH A
SURFACE COLD FRONT SITUATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES. GOES WATER VAPOR
SHOWED AN UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER HUDSON BAY. ANOTHER WARM DAY
ACROSS THE AREA...BUT NOTICEABLY LESS HUMID AS WESTERLY FLOW
INTRODUCED DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT. INSTABILITY CLOUDS WILL
MELT AWAY THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING. OVER NIGHT...OUTSIDE
OF A FEW STRAY CLOUDS FOR THE MOUNTAINS...MOSTLY CLEAR WITH PATCHY
LATE NIGHT VALLEY FOG. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS
TO LOWER AND MID 60S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
ON SATURDAY...A SHORTWAVE IMPULSE PIVOTING AROUND THE UPPER LOW
WILL CROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 70S AND 80S. WITH COOLER AIR
MOVING IN ALOFT...AND LOWERING FREEZING LEVELS...SOME OF THE
STRONGER CELLS MAY PRODUCE HAIL NEAR SEVERE THRESHOLD...ALONG
WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS. THE BEST CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL BE
FAR NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE INTO THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS OF
MAINE. FOR NOW...I`VE LIMITED ENHANCED WORDING TO GUSTY WINDS AND
SMALL HAIL AND CONFINED THE AREA TO FAR NORTHERN AND EASTERN
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA GIVEN SOME CONTINUED UNCERTAINTIES.

CONVECTION SHOULD END QUICKLY SATURDAY EVENING WITH LOSS OF
HEATING AND AS COLD FRONT CLEARS THE COAST. SOME CLOUDS AND
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS COULD LINGER IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN...OTHERWISE
A MAINLY CLEAR AND SEASONABLY COOL NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER AND
MID 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS...AND IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60 ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A HIGHLY PERSISTENT PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CONUS OVER
THE NEXT WEEK OR SO. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES WHILE A PERSISTENT
CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE NORTHEAST.

A MORE SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BEGIN TO DIG SOUTHWARD
FROM CANADA ON MONDAY. THIS...IN CONJUNCTION WITH A SLOW MOVING
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS NEW ENGLAND LATE IN THE DAY AND IN THE
EVENING HOURS. EXPECT ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY
NIGHT.

STRONG CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS
ON TUESDAY WITH POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM. SIMILAR CONDITIONS WILL
OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY...WITH MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS DUE TO
STEEP LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH VERY COLD AIR ALOFT. THE
MORNINGS WILL LIKELY BEGIN WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...WITH CLOUDS
QUICKLY BUILDING AND THICKENING OVER THE REGION WITH THE DAYTIME
HEATING.

ON FRIDAY...CYCLOGENESIS WILL LIKELY OCCUR ALONG THE SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND COASTLINE WITH YET MORE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY DIGGING SOUTH
FROM CANADA. THIS SLOW MOVING SYSTEM IN COMBINATION WITH DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL LIKELY BRING PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z SAT/...GENERALLY VFR WITH SOME INCREASING
MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS THROUGH DAYBREAK /ESPECIALLY NORTH/...WITH
SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG AT HIE BRINGING OCCASIONAL MVFR VSBYS.

FOR THE DAY ON SATURDAY...A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO THE
REGION WILL RESULT IN INCREASING CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE
AND NORTHWESTERN MAINE DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS AND CONTINUING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH MORE ISOLATED ACTIVITY FURTHER SOUTH.
THERE WILL LIKELY BE A FEW TEMPORARY PERIODS OF MVFR VSBYS/CIGS...
WITH IFR VSBYS POSSIBLE IN A FEW DOWNPOURS...BUT THE DAY WILL REMAIN
LARGELY VFR.  LEB/HIE/AUG/RKD STAND THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING
STORMS...WHICH COULD BE POTENTIALLY STRONG.  ANY CONVECTION WILL
QUICKLY WANE DURING THE EVENING WITH PARTIAL CLEARING EXPECTED.

WINDS: CALM-LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH DAYBREAK WILL BECOME WEST-
SOUTHWESTERLY 10G18KTS FOR THE DAY ON SATURDAY BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT
WEST-NORTHWESTERLY /5KTS OR LESS/ SATURDAY EVENING.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR SAT NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY... WITH VLY FOG
POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT. SCT SHRA/TSRA WILL IMPACT MOST OF THE
TERMINALS LATE MON AND MON NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...SOUTHERLY FLOW LATE SAT AND
SAT EVENING MAY BRIEFLY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT OUTSIDE THE BAYS
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...OTHERWISE QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS
PERIOD.

LONG TERM...PERSISTENT SW FLOW SUNDAY AND MONDAY COULD BRING
HIGHER SWELLS TO THE COASTLINE SUNDAY NIGHT....WHICH COULD LINGER
THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...ARNOTT
AVIATION...ARNOTT



000
FXUS61 KCAR 010527
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
127 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES CROSSING THE REGION WILL KEEP UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
115 AM UPDATE...ADJUSTED THE POPS THROUGH 12Z TO BRING 20% ACROSS
THE W AND NW AREAS. THE LATEST HRRR 3KM MODEL MATCHED UP W/THE
LATEST RADAR TRENDS BRINGING LIGHT RETURNS(25-30DBZ) ACROSS THE
AFOREMENTIONED AREAS EARLY THIS MORNING. WX ELEMENT WILL BE LIGHT
SHOWERS. IR SATL IMAGERY SHOWED SOME CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS QUEBEC
TOWARD WNW AREAS. OBS AND CEILING PLOTS INDICATE CLOUD DECK
BETWEEN 5 AND 8K FT. 05Z SFC ANALYSIS HAD WEAK RIDGE MOVING E
W/WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING TOWARD QUEBEC. TEMPS WERE ADJUSTED AS
WELL TO MATCH THE LATEST CONDITIONS.

GENERALLY EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT...THOUGH CLOUD COVER WILL
BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS NORTHWEST AREAS LATE IN ADVANCE OF THE
APPROACHING UPPER DISTURBANCE. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL OCCUR
ACROSS THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADJUST FOR CURRENT
CONDITIONS ALONG WITH EXPECTED OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES AND CLOUD
COVER.

THE FOCUS FOR SATURDAY DEAL W/UPPER TROUGH & COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG AND
JUST AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT/WIND SHIFT LINE EARLY IN THE
AFTERNOON AND THEN SHIFT SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. IT
LOOKS LIKE THINGS SHOULD FIRE UP A LITTLE EARLIER THAN PREVIOUSLY
ANTICIPATED, WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO THE FAR
NORTHWEST BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND INTO INTERIOR DOWNEAST BY EARLY
EVENING. 0-6KM SHEAR LOOKS GOOD AT 40-45 KT, ALONG WITH MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES 5.5-6.5 C/KM. ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE MODELS INDICATE SB
CAPES OF 1100+J/KG, THIS IS LIKELY OVERDONE AND THE MORE MODEST
600-1000 J/KG SEEMS MORE REASONABLE. THIS ALONG WITH A DRY LAYER
ALOFT COULD SERVE TO LIMIT SEVERE POTENTIAL. THE BIGGEST THREAT
WOULD BE HAIL GIVEN THE COLD AIR ALOFT, THOUGH GUSTY WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN ANY STORMS THAT ARE ABLE TO TAP THE STRONGER WINDS
ALOFT. THIS THINKING FOLLOWS CLOSELY WITH SPC, WHICH HAS CONTINUED
TO INCLUDE ALL OF INTERIOR MAINE IN A MARGINAL SEVERE RISK IN
THEIR LATEST DAY 2 OUTLOOK. HAVE THEREFORE KEPT ENHANCED WORDING
IN TOMORROW`S FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS PINE TREE STATE...WITH A
WEAK SHORTWAVE AFFECTING OUR CWA ON SUNDAY...AND THEN A STRONG
UPPER LOW SWINGING EWD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. THE FEATURES WILL
PRODUCE THEIR OWN ROUND OF SHOWERS AND TSTORMS...WITH THE SECOND
HAVING MORE WIDESPREAD AND HEAVIER PRECIP. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SEASONABLY WARM WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 70S TO THE LOWER
80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A TROUGH DIGGING INTO EASTERN CANADA WILL SET THE STAGE FOR SOME
COOLER WEATHER COMING IN DURING THE MID WEEK PERIOD. A COLD FRONT
COMING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. THE AIR BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT WILL ONLY
BE SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER ON TUESDAY. SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AIR
WILL THEN FILTER INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE BEGINS DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS QUEBEC.
SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH ON
WEDNESDAY. THE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO LIFT AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST ON
THURSDAY ALLOWING FOR A DRY DAY WITH SUNSHINE AND TEMPS A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. DRY WEATHER MAY LAST INTO FRIDAY BEFORE A
DEEPER AND STRONGER TROUGH APPROACHES OVER THE WEEKEND BRINGING A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS SATURDAY THEN A TREND TOWARD COOLER CONDITIONS
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY. HOWEVER...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP BY
EARLY AFTERNOON ALONG A COLD FRONT AND CROSS FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. MVFR AND EVEN LOCAL IFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ANY CONVECTION ALONG WITH GUSTY
WINDS AND SMALL HAIL.

SHORT TERM: SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS MUCH OUR FCST AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY. REDUCED CIGS AND
VSBYS WILL PROBABLY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER SHOWERS AND STORMS.
ALSO...STRONG WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS ON MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS OVERNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

SHORT TERM: WINDS AND WAVE HEIGHTS WILL STAY BELOW SCA CRITERIA
DURING SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. HOWEVER SOME THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY MAY AFFECT COASTAL MARINE ZONES ON MONDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HEWITT



000
FXUS61 KCAR 010527
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
127 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES CROSSING THE REGION WILL KEEP UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
115 AM UPDATE...ADJUSTED THE POPS THROUGH 12Z TO BRING 20% ACROSS
THE W AND NW AREAS. THE LATEST HRRR 3KM MODEL MATCHED UP W/THE
LATEST RADAR TRENDS BRINGING LIGHT RETURNS(25-30DBZ) ACROSS THE
AFOREMENTIONED AREAS EARLY THIS MORNING. WX ELEMENT WILL BE LIGHT
SHOWERS. IR SATL IMAGERY SHOWED SOME CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS QUEBEC
TOWARD WNW AREAS. OBS AND CEILING PLOTS INDICATE CLOUD DECK
BETWEEN 5 AND 8K FT. 05Z SFC ANALYSIS HAD WEAK RIDGE MOVING E
W/WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING TOWARD QUEBEC. TEMPS WERE ADJUSTED AS
WELL TO MATCH THE LATEST CONDITIONS.

GENERALLY EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT...THOUGH CLOUD COVER WILL
BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS NORTHWEST AREAS LATE IN ADVANCE OF THE
APPROACHING UPPER DISTURBANCE. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL OCCUR
ACROSS THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADJUST FOR CURRENT
CONDITIONS ALONG WITH EXPECTED OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES AND CLOUD
COVER.

THE FOCUS FOR SATURDAY DEAL W/UPPER TROUGH & COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG AND
JUST AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT/WIND SHIFT LINE EARLY IN THE
AFTERNOON AND THEN SHIFT SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. IT
LOOKS LIKE THINGS SHOULD FIRE UP A LITTLE EARLIER THAN PREVIOUSLY
ANTICIPATED, WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO THE FAR
NORTHWEST BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND INTO INTERIOR DOWNEAST BY EARLY
EVENING. 0-6KM SHEAR LOOKS GOOD AT 40-45 KT, ALONG WITH MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES 5.5-6.5 C/KM. ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE MODELS INDICATE SB
CAPES OF 1100+J/KG, THIS IS LIKELY OVERDONE AND THE MORE MODEST
600-1000 J/KG SEEMS MORE REASONABLE. THIS ALONG WITH A DRY LAYER
ALOFT COULD SERVE TO LIMIT SEVERE POTENTIAL. THE BIGGEST THREAT
WOULD BE HAIL GIVEN THE COLD AIR ALOFT, THOUGH GUSTY WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN ANY STORMS THAT ARE ABLE TO TAP THE STRONGER WINDS
ALOFT. THIS THINKING FOLLOWS CLOSELY WITH SPC, WHICH HAS CONTINUED
TO INCLUDE ALL OF INTERIOR MAINE IN A MARGINAL SEVERE RISK IN
THEIR LATEST DAY 2 OUTLOOK. HAVE THEREFORE KEPT ENHANCED WORDING
IN TOMORROW`S FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS PINE TREE STATE...WITH A
WEAK SHORTWAVE AFFECTING OUR CWA ON SUNDAY...AND THEN A STRONG
UPPER LOW SWINGING EWD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. THE FEATURES WILL
PRODUCE THEIR OWN ROUND OF SHOWERS AND TSTORMS...WITH THE SECOND
HAVING MORE WIDESPREAD AND HEAVIER PRECIP. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SEASONABLY WARM WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 70S TO THE LOWER
80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A TROUGH DIGGING INTO EASTERN CANADA WILL SET THE STAGE FOR SOME
COOLER WEATHER COMING IN DURING THE MID WEEK PERIOD. A COLD FRONT
COMING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. THE AIR BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT WILL ONLY
BE SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER ON TUESDAY. SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AIR
WILL THEN FILTER INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE BEGINS DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS QUEBEC.
SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH ON
WEDNESDAY. THE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO LIFT AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST ON
THURSDAY ALLOWING FOR A DRY DAY WITH SUNSHINE AND TEMPS A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. DRY WEATHER MAY LAST INTO FRIDAY BEFORE A
DEEPER AND STRONGER TROUGH APPROACHES OVER THE WEEKEND BRINGING A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS SATURDAY THEN A TREND TOWARD COOLER CONDITIONS
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY. HOWEVER...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP BY
EARLY AFTERNOON ALONG A COLD FRONT AND CROSS FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. MVFR AND EVEN LOCAL IFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ANY CONVECTION ALONG WITH GUSTY
WINDS AND SMALL HAIL.

SHORT TERM: SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS MUCH OUR FCST AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY. REDUCED CIGS AND
VSBYS WILL PROBABLY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER SHOWERS AND STORMS.
ALSO...STRONG WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS ON MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS OVERNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

SHORT TERM: WINDS AND WAVE HEIGHTS WILL STAY BELOW SCA CRITERIA
DURING SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. HOWEVER SOME THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY MAY AFFECT COASTAL MARINE ZONES ON MONDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HEWITT



000
FXUS61 KCAR 010527
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
127 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES CROSSING THE REGION WILL KEEP UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
115 AM UPDATE...ADJUSTED THE POPS THROUGH 12Z TO BRING 20% ACROSS
THE W AND NW AREAS. THE LATEST HRRR 3KM MODEL MATCHED UP W/THE
LATEST RADAR TRENDS BRINGING LIGHT RETURNS(25-30DBZ) ACROSS THE
AFOREMENTIONED AREAS EARLY THIS MORNING. WX ELEMENT WILL BE LIGHT
SHOWERS. IR SATL IMAGERY SHOWED SOME CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS QUEBEC
TOWARD WNW AREAS. OBS AND CEILING PLOTS INDICATE CLOUD DECK
BETWEEN 5 AND 8K FT. 05Z SFC ANALYSIS HAD WEAK RIDGE MOVING E
W/WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING TOWARD QUEBEC. TEMPS WERE ADJUSTED AS
WELL TO MATCH THE LATEST CONDITIONS.

GENERALLY EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT...THOUGH CLOUD COVER WILL
BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS NORTHWEST AREAS LATE IN ADVANCE OF THE
APPROACHING UPPER DISTURBANCE. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL OCCUR
ACROSS THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADJUST FOR CURRENT
CONDITIONS ALONG WITH EXPECTED OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES AND CLOUD
COVER.

THE FOCUS FOR SATURDAY DEAL W/UPPER TROUGH & COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG AND
JUST AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT/WIND SHIFT LINE EARLY IN THE
AFTERNOON AND THEN SHIFT SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. IT
LOOKS LIKE THINGS SHOULD FIRE UP A LITTLE EARLIER THAN PREVIOUSLY
ANTICIPATED, WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO THE FAR
NORTHWEST BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND INTO INTERIOR DOWNEAST BY EARLY
EVENING. 0-6KM SHEAR LOOKS GOOD AT 40-45 KT, ALONG WITH MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES 5.5-6.5 C/KM. ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE MODELS INDICATE SB
CAPES OF 1100+J/KG, THIS IS LIKELY OVERDONE AND THE MORE MODEST
600-1000 J/KG SEEMS MORE REASONABLE. THIS ALONG WITH A DRY LAYER
ALOFT COULD SERVE TO LIMIT SEVERE POTENTIAL. THE BIGGEST THREAT
WOULD BE HAIL GIVEN THE COLD AIR ALOFT, THOUGH GUSTY WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN ANY STORMS THAT ARE ABLE TO TAP THE STRONGER WINDS
ALOFT. THIS THINKING FOLLOWS CLOSELY WITH SPC, WHICH HAS CONTINUED
TO INCLUDE ALL OF INTERIOR MAINE IN A MARGINAL SEVERE RISK IN
THEIR LATEST DAY 2 OUTLOOK. HAVE THEREFORE KEPT ENHANCED WORDING
IN TOMORROW`S FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS PINE TREE STATE...WITH A
WEAK SHORTWAVE AFFECTING OUR CWA ON SUNDAY...AND THEN A STRONG
UPPER LOW SWINGING EWD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. THE FEATURES WILL
PRODUCE THEIR OWN ROUND OF SHOWERS AND TSTORMS...WITH THE SECOND
HAVING MORE WIDESPREAD AND HEAVIER PRECIP. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SEASONABLY WARM WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 70S TO THE LOWER
80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A TROUGH DIGGING INTO EASTERN CANADA WILL SET THE STAGE FOR SOME
COOLER WEATHER COMING IN DURING THE MID WEEK PERIOD. A COLD FRONT
COMING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. THE AIR BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT WILL ONLY
BE SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER ON TUESDAY. SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AIR
WILL THEN FILTER INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE BEGINS DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS QUEBEC.
SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH ON
WEDNESDAY. THE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO LIFT AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST ON
THURSDAY ALLOWING FOR A DRY DAY WITH SUNSHINE AND TEMPS A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. DRY WEATHER MAY LAST INTO FRIDAY BEFORE A
DEEPER AND STRONGER TROUGH APPROACHES OVER THE WEEKEND BRINGING A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS SATURDAY THEN A TREND TOWARD COOLER CONDITIONS
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY. HOWEVER...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP BY
EARLY AFTERNOON ALONG A COLD FRONT AND CROSS FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. MVFR AND EVEN LOCAL IFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ANY CONVECTION ALONG WITH GUSTY
WINDS AND SMALL HAIL.

SHORT TERM: SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS MUCH OUR FCST AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY. REDUCED CIGS AND
VSBYS WILL PROBABLY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER SHOWERS AND STORMS.
ALSO...STRONG WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS ON MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS OVERNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

SHORT TERM: WINDS AND WAVE HEIGHTS WILL STAY BELOW SCA CRITERIA
DURING SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. HOWEVER SOME THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY MAY AFFECT COASTAL MARINE ZONES ON MONDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HEWITT




000
FXUS61 KCAR 010218
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1018 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES CROSSING THE REGION WILL KEEP UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPDATE...
SKIES ARE CURRENTLY MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WITH
AN AREA OF CLOUDS MOVING EAST ACROSS QUEBEC PROVINCE FROM
WEAKENING CONVECTION WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT...WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE BEGINS TO APPROACH
LATE. GENERALLY EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT...THOUGH CLOUD
COVER WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS NORTHWEST AREAS LATE IN
ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING UPPER DISTURBANCE. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT.
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND
60 ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADJUST
FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS ALONG WITH EXPECTED OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES
AND CLOUD COVER.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE FOCUS FOR TOMORROW BECOMES UPPER TROUGH/COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG AND JUST AHEAD
OF THE SURFACE FRONT/WIND SHIFT LINE EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND
THEN SHIFT SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. IT LOOKS LIKE
THINGS SHOULD FIRE UP A LITTLE EARLIER THAN PREVIOUSLY
ANTICIPATED, WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO THE FAR
NORTHWEST BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND INTO INTERIOR DOWNEAST BY EARLY
EVENING. 0-6KM SHEAR LOOKS GOOD AT 40-45 KT, ALONG WITH MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES 5.5-6.5 C/KM. ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE MODELS INDICATE SB
CAPES OF 1100+J/KG, THIS IS LIKELY OVERDONE AND THE MORE MODEST
600-1000 J/KG SEEMS MORE REASONABLE. THIS ALONG WITH A DRY LAYER
ALOFT COULD SERVE TO LIMIT SEVERE POTENTIAL. THE BIGGEST THREAT
WOULD BE HAIL GIVEN THE COLD AIR ALOFT, THOUGH GUSTY WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN ANY STORMS THAT ARE ABLE TO TAP THE STRONGER WINDS
ALOFT. THIS THINKING FOLLOWS CLOSELY WITH SPC, WHICH HAS CONTINUED
TO INCLUDE ALL OF INTERIOR MAINE IN A MARGINAL SEVERE RISK IN
THEIR LATEST DAY 2 OUTLOOK. HAVE THEREFORE KEPT ENHANCED WORDING
IN TOMORROW`S FORECAST.
&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS PINE TREE STATE...WITH A
WEAK SHORTWAVE AFFECTING OUR CWA ON SUNDAY...AND THEN A STRONG
UPPER LOW SWINGING EWD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. THE FEATURES WILL
PRODUCE THEIR OWN ROUND OF SHOWERS AND TSTORMS...WITH THE SECOND
HAVING MORE WIDESPREAD AND HEAVIER PRECIP. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SEASONABLY WARM WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 70S TO THE LOWER
80S.
&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A TROUGH DIGGING INTO EASTERN CANADA WILL SET THE STAGE FOR SOME
COOLER WEATHER COMING IN DURING THE MID WEEK PERIOD. A COLD FRONT
COMING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. THE AIR BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT WILL ONLY
BE SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER ON TUESDAY. SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AIR
WILL THEN FILTER INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE BEGINS DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS QUEBEC.
SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH ON
WEDNESDAY. THE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO LIFT AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST ON
THURSDAY ALLOWING FOR A DRY DAY WITH SUNSHINE AND TEMPS A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. DRY WEATHER MAY LAST INTO FRIDAY BEFORE A
DEEPER AND STRONGER TROUGH APPROACHES OVER THE WEEKEND BRINGING A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS SATURDAY THEN A TREND TOWARD COOLER CONDITIONS
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY. HOWEVER...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP BY
EARLY AFTERNOON ALONG A COLD FRONT AND CROSS FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. MVFR AND EVEN LOCAL IFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ANY CONVECTION ALONG WITH GUSTY
WINDS AND SMALL HAIL.

SHORT TERM: SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS MUCH OUR FCST AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY. REDUCED CIGS AND
VSBYS WILL PROBABLY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER SHOWERS AND STORMS.
ALSO...STRONG WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS ON MONDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS OVERNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

SHORT TERM: WINDS AND WAVE HEIGHTS WILL STAY BELOW SCA CRITERIA
DURING SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. HOWEVER SOME THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY MAY AFFECT COASTAL MARINE ZONES ON MONDAY.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...NORCROSS/HASTINGS
SHORT TERM...BERDES
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...NORCROSS/HASTINGS/BERDES
MARINE...NORCROSS/BERDES



000
FXUS61 KCAR 010218
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1018 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES CROSSING THE REGION WILL KEEP UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPDATE...
SKIES ARE CURRENTLY MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WITH
AN AREA OF CLOUDS MOVING EAST ACROSS QUEBEC PROVINCE FROM
WEAKENING CONVECTION WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT...WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE BEGINS TO APPROACH
LATE. GENERALLY EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT...THOUGH CLOUD
COVER WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS NORTHWEST AREAS LATE IN
ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING UPPER DISTURBANCE. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT.
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND
60 ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADJUST
FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS ALONG WITH EXPECTED OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES
AND CLOUD COVER.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE FOCUS FOR TOMORROW BECOMES UPPER TROUGH/COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG AND JUST AHEAD
OF THE SURFACE FRONT/WIND SHIFT LINE EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND
THEN SHIFT SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. IT LOOKS LIKE
THINGS SHOULD FIRE UP A LITTLE EARLIER THAN PREVIOUSLY
ANTICIPATED, WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO THE FAR
NORTHWEST BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND INTO INTERIOR DOWNEAST BY EARLY
EVENING. 0-6KM SHEAR LOOKS GOOD AT 40-45 KT, ALONG WITH MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES 5.5-6.5 C/KM. ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE MODELS INDICATE SB
CAPES OF 1100+J/KG, THIS IS LIKELY OVERDONE AND THE MORE MODEST
600-1000 J/KG SEEMS MORE REASONABLE. THIS ALONG WITH A DRY LAYER
ALOFT COULD SERVE TO LIMIT SEVERE POTENTIAL. THE BIGGEST THREAT
WOULD BE HAIL GIVEN THE COLD AIR ALOFT, THOUGH GUSTY WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN ANY STORMS THAT ARE ABLE TO TAP THE STRONGER WINDS
ALOFT. THIS THINKING FOLLOWS CLOSELY WITH SPC, WHICH HAS CONTINUED
TO INCLUDE ALL OF INTERIOR MAINE IN A MARGINAL SEVERE RISK IN
THEIR LATEST DAY 2 OUTLOOK. HAVE THEREFORE KEPT ENHANCED WORDING
IN TOMORROW`S FORECAST.
&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS PINE TREE STATE...WITH A
WEAK SHORTWAVE AFFECTING OUR CWA ON SUNDAY...AND THEN A STRONG
UPPER LOW SWINGING EWD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. THE FEATURES WILL
PRODUCE THEIR OWN ROUND OF SHOWERS AND TSTORMS...WITH THE SECOND
HAVING MORE WIDESPREAD AND HEAVIER PRECIP. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SEASONABLY WARM WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 70S TO THE LOWER
80S.
&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A TROUGH DIGGING INTO EASTERN CANADA WILL SET THE STAGE FOR SOME
COOLER WEATHER COMING IN DURING THE MID WEEK PERIOD. A COLD FRONT
COMING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. THE AIR BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT WILL ONLY
BE SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER ON TUESDAY. SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AIR
WILL THEN FILTER INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE BEGINS DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS QUEBEC.
SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH ON
WEDNESDAY. THE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO LIFT AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST ON
THURSDAY ALLOWING FOR A DRY DAY WITH SUNSHINE AND TEMPS A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. DRY WEATHER MAY LAST INTO FRIDAY BEFORE A
DEEPER AND STRONGER TROUGH APPROACHES OVER THE WEEKEND BRINGING A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS SATURDAY THEN A TREND TOWARD COOLER CONDITIONS
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY. HOWEVER...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP BY
EARLY AFTERNOON ALONG A COLD FRONT AND CROSS FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. MVFR AND EVEN LOCAL IFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ANY CONVECTION ALONG WITH GUSTY
WINDS AND SMALL HAIL.

SHORT TERM: SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS MUCH OUR FCST AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY. REDUCED CIGS AND
VSBYS WILL PROBABLY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER SHOWERS AND STORMS.
ALSO...STRONG WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS ON MONDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS OVERNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

SHORT TERM: WINDS AND WAVE HEIGHTS WILL STAY BELOW SCA CRITERIA
DURING SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. HOWEVER SOME THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY MAY AFFECT COASTAL MARINE ZONES ON MONDAY.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...NORCROSS/HASTINGS
SHORT TERM...BERDES
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...NORCROSS/HASTINGS/BERDES
MARINE...NORCROSS/BERDES



000
FXUS61 KCAR 010218
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1018 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES CROSSING THE REGION WILL KEEP UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPDATE...
SKIES ARE CURRENTLY MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WITH
AN AREA OF CLOUDS MOVING EAST ACROSS QUEBEC PROVINCE FROM
WEAKENING CONVECTION WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT...WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE BEGINS TO APPROACH
LATE. GENERALLY EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT...THOUGH CLOUD
COVER WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS NORTHWEST AREAS LATE IN
ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING UPPER DISTURBANCE. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT.
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND
60 ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADJUST
FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS ALONG WITH EXPECTED OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES
AND CLOUD COVER.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE FOCUS FOR TOMORROW BECOMES UPPER TROUGH/COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG AND JUST AHEAD
OF THE SURFACE FRONT/WIND SHIFT LINE EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND
THEN SHIFT SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. IT LOOKS LIKE
THINGS SHOULD FIRE UP A LITTLE EARLIER THAN PREVIOUSLY
ANTICIPATED, WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO THE FAR
NORTHWEST BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND INTO INTERIOR DOWNEAST BY EARLY
EVENING. 0-6KM SHEAR LOOKS GOOD AT 40-45 KT, ALONG WITH MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES 5.5-6.5 C/KM. ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE MODELS INDICATE SB
CAPES OF 1100+J/KG, THIS IS LIKELY OVERDONE AND THE MORE MODEST
600-1000 J/KG SEEMS MORE REASONABLE. THIS ALONG WITH A DRY LAYER
ALOFT COULD SERVE TO LIMIT SEVERE POTENTIAL. THE BIGGEST THREAT
WOULD BE HAIL GIVEN THE COLD AIR ALOFT, THOUGH GUSTY WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN ANY STORMS THAT ARE ABLE TO TAP THE STRONGER WINDS
ALOFT. THIS THINKING FOLLOWS CLOSELY WITH SPC, WHICH HAS CONTINUED
TO INCLUDE ALL OF INTERIOR MAINE IN A MARGINAL SEVERE RISK IN
THEIR LATEST DAY 2 OUTLOOK. HAVE THEREFORE KEPT ENHANCED WORDING
IN TOMORROW`S FORECAST.
&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS PINE TREE STATE...WITH A
WEAK SHORTWAVE AFFECTING OUR CWA ON SUNDAY...AND THEN A STRONG
UPPER LOW SWINGING EWD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. THE FEATURES WILL
PRODUCE THEIR OWN ROUND OF SHOWERS AND TSTORMS...WITH THE SECOND
HAVING MORE WIDESPREAD AND HEAVIER PRECIP. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SEASONABLY WARM WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 70S TO THE LOWER
80S.
&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A TROUGH DIGGING INTO EASTERN CANADA WILL SET THE STAGE FOR SOME
COOLER WEATHER COMING IN DURING THE MID WEEK PERIOD. A COLD FRONT
COMING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. THE AIR BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT WILL ONLY
BE SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER ON TUESDAY. SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AIR
WILL THEN FILTER INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE BEGINS DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS QUEBEC.
SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH ON
WEDNESDAY. THE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO LIFT AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST ON
THURSDAY ALLOWING FOR A DRY DAY WITH SUNSHINE AND TEMPS A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. DRY WEATHER MAY LAST INTO FRIDAY BEFORE A
DEEPER AND STRONGER TROUGH APPROACHES OVER THE WEEKEND BRINGING A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS SATURDAY THEN A TREND TOWARD COOLER CONDITIONS
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY. HOWEVER...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP BY
EARLY AFTERNOON ALONG A COLD FRONT AND CROSS FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. MVFR AND EVEN LOCAL IFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ANY CONVECTION ALONG WITH GUSTY
WINDS AND SMALL HAIL.

SHORT TERM: SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS MUCH OUR FCST AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY. REDUCED CIGS AND
VSBYS WILL PROBABLY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER SHOWERS AND STORMS.
ALSO...STRONG WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS ON MONDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS OVERNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

SHORT TERM: WINDS AND WAVE HEIGHTS WILL STAY BELOW SCA CRITERIA
DURING SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. HOWEVER SOME THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY MAY AFFECT COASTAL MARINE ZONES ON MONDAY.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...NORCROSS/HASTINGS
SHORT TERM...BERDES
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...NORCROSS/HASTINGS/BERDES
MARINE...NORCROSS/BERDES



000
FXUS61 KCAR 010218
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1018 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES CROSSING THE REGION WILL KEEP UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPDATE...
SKIES ARE CURRENTLY MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WITH
AN AREA OF CLOUDS MOVING EAST ACROSS QUEBEC PROVINCE FROM
WEAKENING CONVECTION WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT...WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE BEGINS TO APPROACH
LATE. GENERALLY EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT...THOUGH CLOUD
COVER WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS NORTHWEST AREAS LATE IN
ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING UPPER DISTURBANCE. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT.
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND
60 ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADJUST
FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS ALONG WITH EXPECTED OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES
AND CLOUD COVER.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE FOCUS FOR TOMORROW BECOMES UPPER TROUGH/COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG AND JUST AHEAD
OF THE SURFACE FRONT/WIND SHIFT LINE EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND
THEN SHIFT SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. IT LOOKS LIKE
THINGS SHOULD FIRE UP A LITTLE EARLIER THAN PREVIOUSLY
ANTICIPATED, WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO THE FAR
NORTHWEST BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND INTO INTERIOR DOWNEAST BY EARLY
EVENING. 0-6KM SHEAR LOOKS GOOD AT 40-45 KT, ALONG WITH MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES 5.5-6.5 C/KM. ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE MODELS INDICATE SB
CAPES OF 1100+J/KG, THIS IS LIKELY OVERDONE AND THE MORE MODEST
600-1000 J/KG SEEMS MORE REASONABLE. THIS ALONG WITH A DRY LAYER
ALOFT COULD SERVE TO LIMIT SEVERE POTENTIAL. THE BIGGEST THREAT
WOULD BE HAIL GIVEN THE COLD AIR ALOFT, THOUGH GUSTY WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN ANY STORMS THAT ARE ABLE TO TAP THE STRONGER WINDS
ALOFT. THIS THINKING FOLLOWS CLOSELY WITH SPC, WHICH HAS CONTINUED
TO INCLUDE ALL OF INTERIOR MAINE IN A MARGINAL SEVERE RISK IN
THEIR LATEST DAY 2 OUTLOOK. HAVE THEREFORE KEPT ENHANCED WORDING
IN TOMORROW`S FORECAST.
&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS PINE TREE STATE...WITH A
WEAK SHORTWAVE AFFECTING OUR CWA ON SUNDAY...AND THEN A STRONG
UPPER LOW SWINGING EWD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. THE FEATURES WILL
PRODUCE THEIR OWN ROUND OF SHOWERS AND TSTORMS...WITH THE SECOND
HAVING MORE WIDESPREAD AND HEAVIER PRECIP. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SEASONABLY WARM WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 70S TO THE LOWER
80S.
&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A TROUGH DIGGING INTO EASTERN CANADA WILL SET THE STAGE FOR SOME
COOLER WEATHER COMING IN DURING THE MID WEEK PERIOD. A COLD FRONT
COMING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. THE AIR BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT WILL ONLY
BE SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER ON TUESDAY. SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AIR
WILL THEN FILTER INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE BEGINS DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS QUEBEC.
SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH ON
WEDNESDAY. THE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO LIFT AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST ON
THURSDAY ALLOWING FOR A DRY DAY WITH SUNSHINE AND TEMPS A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. DRY WEATHER MAY LAST INTO FRIDAY BEFORE A
DEEPER AND STRONGER TROUGH APPROACHES OVER THE WEEKEND BRINGING A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS SATURDAY THEN A TREND TOWARD COOLER CONDITIONS
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY. HOWEVER...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP BY
EARLY AFTERNOON ALONG A COLD FRONT AND CROSS FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. MVFR AND EVEN LOCAL IFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ANY CONVECTION ALONG WITH GUSTY
WINDS AND SMALL HAIL.

SHORT TERM: SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS MUCH OUR FCST AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY. REDUCED CIGS AND
VSBYS WILL PROBABLY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER SHOWERS AND STORMS.
ALSO...STRONG WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS ON MONDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS OVERNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

SHORT TERM: WINDS AND WAVE HEIGHTS WILL STAY BELOW SCA CRITERIA
DURING SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. HOWEVER SOME THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY MAY AFFECT COASTAL MARINE ZONES ON MONDAY.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...NORCROSS/HASTINGS
SHORT TERM...BERDES
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...NORCROSS/HASTINGS/BERDES
MARINE...NORCROSS/BERDES



000
FXUS61 KCAR 312354
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
754 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES CROSSING THE REGION WILL KEEP UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPDATE...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT...WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE BEGINS TO APPROACH
FROM THE WEST LATE. GENERALLY EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT...THOUGH CLOUD COVER WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS
NORTHWEST AREAS LATE IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING UPPER
DISTURBANCE. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE REST OF
THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADJUST FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS ALONG WITH
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES AND CLOUD COVER.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE FOCUS FOR TOMORROW BECOMES UPPER TROUGH/COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG AND JUST AHEAD
OF THE SURFACE FRONT/WIND SHIFT LINE EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND
THEN SHIFT SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. IT LOOKS LIKE
THINGS SHOULD FIRE UP A LITTLE EARLIER THAN PREVIOUSLY
ANTICIPATED, WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO THE FAR
NORTHWEST BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND INTO INTERIOR DOWNEAST BY EARLY
EVENING. 0-6KM SHEAR LOOKS GOOD AT 40-45 KT, ALONG WITH MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES 5.5-6.5 C/KM. ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE MODELS INDICATE SB
CAPES OF 1100+J/KG, THIS IS LIKELY OVERDONE AND THE MORE MODEST
600-1000 J/KG SEEMS MORE REASONABLE. THIS ALONG WITH A DRY LAYER
ALOFT COULD SERVE TO LIMIT SEVERE POTENTIAL. THE BIGGEST THREAT
WOULD BE HAIL GIVEN THE COLD AIR ALOFT, THOUGH GUSTY WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN ANY STORMS THAT ARE ABLE TO TAP THE STRONGER WINDS
ALOFT. THIS THINKING FOLLOWS CLOSELY WITH SPC, WHICH HAS CONTINUED
TO INCLUDE ALL OF INTERIOR MAINE IN A MARGINAL SEVERE RISK IN
THEIR LATEST DAY 2 OUTLOOK. HAVE THEREFORE KEPT ENHANCED WORDING
IN TOMORROW`S FORECAST.
&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS PINE TREE STATE...WITH A
WEAK SHORTWAVE AFFECTING OUR CWA ON SUNDAY...AND THEN A STRONG
UPPER LOW SWINGING EWD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. THE FEATURES WILL
PRODUCE THEIR OWN ROUND OF SHOWERS AND TSTORMS...WITH THE SECOND
HAVING MORE WIDESPREAD AND HEAVIER PRECIP. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SEASONABLY WARM WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 70S TO THE LOWER
80S.
&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A TROUGH DIGGING INTO EASTERN CANADA WILL SET THE STAGE FOR SOME
COOLER WEATHER COMING IN DURING THE MID WEEK PERIOD. A COLD FRONT
COMING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. THE AIR BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT WILL ONLY
BE SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER ON TUESDAY. SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AIR
WILL THEN FILTER INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE BEGINS DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS QUEBEC.
SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH ON
WEDNESDAY. THE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO LIFT AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST ON
THURSDAY ALLOWING FOR A DRY DAY WITH SUNSHINE AND TEMPS A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. DRY WEATHER MAY LAST INTO FRIDAY BEFORE A
DEEPER AND STRONGER TROUGH APPROACHES OVER THE WEEKEND BRINGING A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS SATURDAY THEN A TREND TOWARD COOLER CONDITIONS
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY. HOWEVER...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP BY
EARLY AFTERNOON ALONG A COLD FRONT AND CROSS FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. MVFR AND EVEN LOCAL IFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ANY CONVECTION, ALONG WITH GUSTY
WINDS AND SMALL HAIL.

SHORT TERM: SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS MUCH OUR FCST AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY. REDUCED CIGS AND
VSBYS WILL PROBABLY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER SHOWERS AND STORMS.
ALSO...STRONG WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS ON MONDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

SHORT TERM: WINDS AND WAVE HEIGHTS WILL STAY BELOW SCA CRITERIA
DURING SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. HOWEVER SOME THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY MAY AFFECT COASTAL MARINE ZONES ON MONDAY.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...NORCROSS/HASTINGS
SHORT TERM...BERDES
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...NORCROSS/HASTINGS/BERDES
MARINE...NORCROSS/BERDES




000
FXUS61 KGYX 312339
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
739 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER
THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BEHIND THIS FRONT WE WILL
SEE ANOTHER DROP IN TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE
ALOFT...SITUATED OVER QUEBEC...WILL BRING A THREAT FOR SHOWERS OR
STORMS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. COOLER AIR AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
MOVE IN FOR THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK. BY LATE IN THE
WEEK...LOW PRESSURE MAY FORM ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC
SEABOARD...BRINGING MORE RAIN TO OUR REGION.

&&
23Z UPDATE...
NOT MUCH TO SPEAK OF THIS EVENING AS DIURNAL CLOUDS QUICKLY DRYING
UP AND WINDS ARE DROPPING OFF. RADAR SHOWING CONVECTION AHEAD OF A
WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHING IN FROM THE WEST BUT BEST ACTIVITY
GENERALLY NORTH OF THE BORDER. SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS
PUSHING INTO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK BEGINNING TO FIZZLE AS
IT HEADS EAST AND OUT RUNS BEST INSTABILITY. CAN`T RULE OUT A
STRAY LATE NIGHT SHOWER IN BORDER ZONES IN THE FAR NORTH BUT THE
MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD SEE A MOSTLY CLEAR AND DRY
NIGHT. TEMPS CURRENTLY RUNNING ABOVE FORECAST AND HAVE TWEAKED
THOSE BASED ON CURRENT OBS. NO OTHER CHANGES PLANNED ATTM.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AT 18Z...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WAS EXITING THE COAST...WITH A SURFACE
COLD FRONT SITUATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES. GOES WATER VAPOR SHOWED
AN UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER HUDSON BAY. ANOTHER WARM DAY ACROSS THE
AREA...BUT NOTICEABLY LESS HUMID AS WESTERLY FLOW INTRODUCED DRIER
AIR BEHIND THE FRONT. INSTABILITY CLOUDS WILL MELT AWAY THIS
EVENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING. OVER NIGHT...OUTSIDE OF A FEW STRAY
CLOUDS FOR THE MOUNTAINS...MOSTLY CLEAR WITH [PATCHY LATE NIGHT
VALLEY FOG. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO LOWER
AND MID 60S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
ON SATURDAY...A SHORTWAVE IMPULSE PIVOTING AROUND THE UPPER LOW
WILL CROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 70S AND 80S. WITH COOLER AIR
MOVING IN ALOFT...AND LOWERING FREEZING LEVELS...SOME OF THE
STRONGER CELLS MAY PRODUCE HAIL NEAR SEVERE THRESHOLD...ALONG
WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS. THE BEST CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL BE
FAR NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE INTO THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS OF
MAINE. FOR NOW...I`VE LIMITED ENHANCED WORDING TO GUSTY WINDS AND
SMALL HAIL AND CONFINED THE AREA TO FAR NORTHERN AND EASTERN
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA GIVEN SOME CONTINUED UNCERTAINTIES.

CONVECTION SHOULD END QUICKLY SATURDAY EVENING WITH LOSS OF
HEATING AND AS COLD FRONT CLEARS THE COAST. SOME CLOUDS AND
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS COULD LINGER IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN...OTHERWISE
A MAINLY CLEAR AND SEASONABLY COOL NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER AND
MID 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS...AND IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60 ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A HIGHLY PERSISTENT PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CONUS OVER
THE NEXT WEEK OR SO. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES WHILE A PERSISTENT
CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE NORTHEAST.

A MORE SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BEGIN TO DIG SOUTHWARD
FROM CANADA ON MONDAY. THIS...IN CONJUNCTION WITH A SLOW MOVING
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS NEW ENGLAND LATE IN THE DAY AND IN THE
EVENING HOURS. EXPECT ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY
NIGHT.

STRONG CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS
ON TUESDAY WITH POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM. SIMILAR CONDITIONS WILL
OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY...WITH MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS DUE TO
STEEP LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH VERY COLD AIR ALOFT. THE
MORNINGS WILL LIKELY BEGIN WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...WITH CLOUDS
QUICKLY BUILDING AND THICKENING OVER THE REGION WITH THE DAYTIME
HEATING.

ON FRIDAY...CYCLOGENESIS WILL LIKELY OCCUR ALONG THE SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND COASTLINE WITH YET MORE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY DIGGING SOUTH
FROM CANADA. THIS SLOW MOVING SYSTEM IN COMBINATION WITH DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL LIKELY BRING PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z SAT/...SCT MVFR PSBL BTW 08 - 12Z SAT IN
VALLEY FOG AND STRATUS. SCT MVFR 16 SAT - 00Z SUN IN SHRA AND
TSRA. SCT MVFR PSBL ONCE AGAIN BTW 08 - 12Z SUN IN VALLEY FOG AND
STRATUS.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR SAT NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY... WITH VLY FOG
POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT. SCT SHRA/TSRA WILL IMPACT MOST OF THE
TERMINALS LATE MON AND MON NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...SOUTHERLY FLOW LATE SAT AND
SAT EVENING MAY BRIEFLY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT OUTSIDE THE BAYS
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...OTHERWISE QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS
PERIOD.

LONG TERM...PERSISTENT SW FLOW SUNDAY AND MONDAY COULD BRING
HIGHER SWELLS TO THE COASTLINE SUNDAY NIGHT....WHICH COULD LINGER
THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KGYX 312339
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
739 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER
THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BEHIND THIS FRONT WE WILL
SEE ANOTHER DROP IN TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE
ALOFT...SITUATED OVER QUEBEC...WILL BRING A THREAT FOR SHOWERS OR
STORMS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. COOLER AIR AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
MOVE IN FOR THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK. BY LATE IN THE
WEEK...LOW PRESSURE MAY FORM ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC
SEABOARD...BRINGING MORE RAIN TO OUR REGION.

&&
23Z UPDATE...
NOT MUCH TO SPEAK OF THIS EVENING AS DIURNAL CLOUDS QUICKLY DRYING
UP AND WINDS ARE DROPPING OFF. RADAR SHOWING CONVECTION AHEAD OF A
WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHING IN FROM THE WEST BUT BEST ACTIVITY
GENERALLY NORTH OF THE BORDER. SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS
PUSHING INTO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK BEGINNING TO FIZZLE AS
IT HEADS EAST AND OUT RUNS BEST INSTABILITY. CAN`T RULE OUT A
STRAY LATE NIGHT SHOWER IN BORDER ZONES IN THE FAR NORTH BUT THE
MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD SEE A MOSTLY CLEAR AND DRY
NIGHT. TEMPS CURRENTLY RUNNING ABOVE FORECAST AND HAVE TWEAKED
THOSE BASED ON CURRENT OBS. NO OTHER CHANGES PLANNED ATTM.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AT 18Z...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WAS EXITING THE COAST...WITH A SURFACE
COLD FRONT SITUATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES. GOES WATER VAPOR SHOWED
AN UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER HUDSON BAY. ANOTHER WARM DAY ACROSS THE
AREA...BUT NOTICEABLY LESS HUMID AS WESTERLY FLOW INTRODUCED DRIER
AIR BEHIND THE FRONT. INSTABILITY CLOUDS WILL MELT AWAY THIS
EVENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING. OVER NIGHT...OUTSIDE OF A FEW STRAY
CLOUDS FOR THE MOUNTAINS...MOSTLY CLEAR WITH [PATCHY LATE NIGHT
VALLEY FOG. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO LOWER
AND MID 60S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
ON SATURDAY...A SHORTWAVE IMPULSE PIVOTING AROUND THE UPPER LOW
WILL CROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 70S AND 80S. WITH COOLER AIR
MOVING IN ALOFT...AND LOWERING FREEZING LEVELS...SOME OF THE
STRONGER CELLS MAY PRODUCE HAIL NEAR SEVERE THRESHOLD...ALONG
WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS. THE BEST CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL BE
FAR NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE INTO THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS OF
MAINE. FOR NOW...I`VE LIMITED ENHANCED WORDING TO GUSTY WINDS AND
SMALL HAIL AND CONFINED THE AREA TO FAR NORTHERN AND EASTERN
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA GIVEN SOME CONTINUED UNCERTAINTIES.

CONVECTION SHOULD END QUICKLY SATURDAY EVENING WITH LOSS OF
HEATING AND AS COLD FRONT CLEARS THE COAST. SOME CLOUDS AND
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS COULD LINGER IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN...OTHERWISE
A MAINLY CLEAR AND SEASONABLY COOL NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER AND
MID 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS...AND IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60 ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A HIGHLY PERSISTENT PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CONUS OVER
THE NEXT WEEK OR SO. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES WHILE A PERSISTENT
CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE NORTHEAST.

A MORE SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BEGIN TO DIG SOUTHWARD
FROM CANADA ON MONDAY. THIS...IN CONJUNCTION WITH A SLOW MOVING
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS NEW ENGLAND LATE IN THE DAY AND IN THE
EVENING HOURS. EXPECT ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY
NIGHT.

STRONG CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS
ON TUESDAY WITH POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM. SIMILAR CONDITIONS WILL
OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY...WITH MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS DUE TO
STEEP LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH VERY COLD AIR ALOFT. THE
MORNINGS WILL LIKELY BEGIN WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...WITH CLOUDS
QUICKLY BUILDING AND THICKENING OVER THE REGION WITH THE DAYTIME
HEATING.

ON FRIDAY...CYCLOGENESIS WILL LIKELY OCCUR ALONG THE SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND COASTLINE WITH YET MORE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY DIGGING SOUTH
FROM CANADA. THIS SLOW MOVING SYSTEM IN COMBINATION WITH DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL LIKELY BRING PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z SAT/...SCT MVFR PSBL BTW 08 - 12Z SAT IN
VALLEY FOG AND STRATUS. SCT MVFR 16 SAT - 00Z SUN IN SHRA AND
TSRA. SCT MVFR PSBL ONCE AGAIN BTW 08 - 12Z SUN IN VALLEY FOG AND
STRATUS.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR SAT NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY... WITH VLY FOG
POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT. SCT SHRA/TSRA WILL IMPACT MOST OF THE
TERMINALS LATE MON AND MON NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...SOUTHERLY FLOW LATE SAT AND
SAT EVENING MAY BRIEFLY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT OUTSIDE THE BAYS
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...OTHERWISE QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS
PERIOD.

LONG TERM...PERSISTENT SW FLOW SUNDAY AND MONDAY COULD BRING
HIGHER SWELLS TO THE COASTLINE SUNDAY NIGHT....WHICH COULD LINGER
THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KGYX 312339
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
739 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER
THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BEHIND THIS FRONT WE WILL
SEE ANOTHER DROP IN TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE
ALOFT...SITUATED OVER QUEBEC...WILL BRING A THREAT FOR SHOWERS OR
STORMS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. COOLER AIR AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
MOVE IN FOR THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK. BY LATE IN THE
WEEK...LOW PRESSURE MAY FORM ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC
SEABOARD...BRINGING MORE RAIN TO OUR REGION.

&&
23Z UPDATE...
NOT MUCH TO SPEAK OF THIS EVENING AS DIURNAL CLOUDS QUICKLY DRYING
UP AND WINDS ARE DROPPING OFF. RADAR SHOWING CONVECTION AHEAD OF A
WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHING IN FROM THE WEST BUT BEST ACTIVITY
GENERALLY NORTH OF THE BORDER. SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS
PUSHING INTO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK BEGINNING TO FIZZLE AS
IT HEADS EAST AND OUT RUNS BEST INSTABILITY. CAN`T RULE OUT A
STRAY LATE NIGHT SHOWER IN BORDER ZONES IN THE FAR NORTH BUT THE
MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD SEE A MOSTLY CLEAR AND DRY
NIGHT. TEMPS CURRENTLY RUNNING ABOVE FORECAST AND HAVE TWEAKED
THOSE BASED ON CURRENT OBS. NO OTHER CHANGES PLANNED ATTM.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AT 18Z...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WAS EXITING THE COAST...WITH A SURFACE
COLD FRONT SITUATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES. GOES WATER VAPOR SHOWED
AN UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER HUDSON BAY. ANOTHER WARM DAY ACROSS THE
AREA...BUT NOTICEABLY LESS HUMID AS WESTERLY FLOW INTRODUCED DRIER
AIR BEHIND THE FRONT. INSTABILITY CLOUDS WILL MELT AWAY THIS
EVENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING. OVER NIGHT...OUTSIDE OF A FEW STRAY
CLOUDS FOR THE MOUNTAINS...MOSTLY CLEAR WITH [PATCHY LATE NIGHT
VALLEY FOG. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO LOWER
AND MID 60S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
ON SATURDAY...A SHORTWAVE IMPULSE PIVOTING AROUND THE UPPER LOW
WILL CROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 70S AND 80S. WITH COOLER AIR
MOVING IN ALOFT...AND LOWERING FREEZING LEVELS...SOME OF THE
STRONGER CELLS MAY PRODUCE HAIL NEAR SEVERE THRESHOLD...ALONG
WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS. THE BEST CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL BE
FAR NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE INTO THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS OF
MAINE. FOR NOW...I`VE LIMITED ENHANCED WORDING TO GUSTY WINDS AND
SMALL HAIL AND CONFINED THE AREA TO FAR NORTHERN AND EASTERN
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA GIVEN SOME CONTINUED UNCERTAINTIES.

CONVECTION SHOULD END QUICKLY SATURDAY EVENING WITH LOSS OF
HEATING AND AS COLD FRONT CLEARS THE COAST. SOME CLOUDS AND
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS COULD LINGER IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN...OTHERWISE
A MAINLY CLEAR AND SEASONABLY COOL NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER AND
MID 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS...AND IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60 ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A HIGHLY PERSISTENT PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CONUS OVER
THE NEXT WEEK OR SO. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES WHILE A PERSISTENT
CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE NORTHEAST.

A MORE SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BEGIN TO DIG SOUTHWARD
FROM CANADA ON MONDAY. THIS...IN CONJUNCTION WITH A SLOW MOVING
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS NEW ENGLAND LATE IN THE DAY AND IN THE
EVENING HOURS. EXPECT ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY
NIGHT.

STRONG CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS
ON TUESDAY WITH POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM. SIMILAR CONDITIONS WILL
OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY...WITH MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS DUE TO
STEEP LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH VERY COLD AIR ALOFT. THE
MORNINGS WILL LIKELY BEGIN WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...WITH CLOUDS
QUICKLY BUILDING AND THICKENING OVER THE REGION WITH THE DAYTIME
HEATING.

ON FRIDAY...CYCLOGENESIS WILL LIKELY OCCUR ALONG THE SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND COASTLINE WITH YET MORE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY DIGGING SOUTH
FROM CANADA. THIS SLOW MOVING SYSTEM IN COMBINATION WITH DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL LIKELY BRING PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z SAT/...SCT MVFR PSBL BTW 08 - 12Z SAT IN
VALLEY FOG AND STRATUS. SCT MVFR 16 SAT - 00Z SUN IN SHRA AND
TSRA. SCT MVFR PSBL ONCE AGAIN BTW 08 - 12Z SUN IN VALLEY FOG AND
STRATUS.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR SAT NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY... WITH VLY FOG
POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT. SCT SHRA/TSRA WILL IMPACT MOST OF THE
TERMINALS LATE MON AND MON NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...SOUTHERLY FLOW LATE SAT AND
SAT EVENING MAY BRIEFLY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT OUTSIDE THE BAYS
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...OTHERWISE QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS
PERIOD.

LONG TERM...PERSISTENT SW FLOW SUNDAY AND MONDAY COULD BRING
HIGHER SWELLS TO THE COASTLINE SUNDAY NIGHT....WHICH COULD LINGER
THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KGYX 312339
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
739 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER
THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BEHIND THIS FRONT WE WILL
SEE ANOTHER DROP IN TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE
ALOFT...SITUATED OVER QUEBEC...WILL BRING A THREAT FOR SHOWERS OR
STORMS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. COOLER AIR AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
MOVE IN FOR THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK. BY LATE IN THE
WEEK...LOW PRESSURE MAY FORM ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC
SEABOARD...BRINGING MORE RAIN TO OUR REGION.

&&
23Z UPDATE...
NOT MUCH TO SPEAK OF THIS EVENING AS DIURNAL CLOUDS QUICKLY DRYING
UP AND WINDS ARE DROPPING OFF. RADAR SHOWING CONVECTION AHEAD OF A
WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHING IN FROM THE WEST BUT BEST ACTIVITY
GENERALLY NORTH OF THE BORDER. SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS
PUSHING INTO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK BEGINNING TO FIZZLE AS
IT HEADS EAST AND OUT RUNS BEST INSTABILITY. CAN`T RULE OUT A
STRAY LATE NIGHT SHOWER IN BORDER ZONES IN THE FAR NORTH BUT THE
MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD SEE A MOSTLY CLEAR AND DRY
NIGHT. TEMPS CURRENTLY RUNNING ABOVE FORECAST AND HAVE TWEAKED
THOSE BASED ON CURRENT OBS. NO OTHER CHANGES PLANNED ATTM.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AT 18Z...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WAS EXITING THE COAST...WITH A SURFACE
COLD FRONT SITUATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES. GOES WATER VAPOR SHOWED
AN UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER HUDSON BAY. ANOTHER WARM DAY ACROSS THE
AREA...BUT NOTICEABLY LESS HUMID AS WESTERLY FLOW INTRODUCED DRIER
AIR BEHIND THE FRONT. INSTABILITY CLOUDS WILL MELT AWAY THIS
EVENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING. OVER NIGHT...OUTSIDE OF A FEW STRAY
CLOUDS FOR THE MOUNTAINS...MOSTLY CLEAR WITH [PATCHY LATE NIGHT
VALLEY FOG. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO LOWER
AND MID 60S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
ON SATURDAY...A SHORTWAVE IMPULSE PIVOTING AROUND THE UPPER LOW
WILL CROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 70S AND 80S. WITH COOLER AIR
MOVING IN ALOFT...AND LOWERING FREEZING LEVELS...SOME OF THE
STRONGER CELLS MAY PRODUCE HAIL NEAR SEVERE THRESHOLD...ALONG
WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS. THE BEST CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL BE
FAR NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE INTO THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS OF
MAINE. FOR NOW...I`VE LIMITED ENHANCED WORDING TO GUSTY WINDS AND
SMALL HAIL AND CONFINED THE AREA TO FAR NORTHERN AND EASTERN
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA GIVEN SOME CONTINUED UNCERTAINTIES.

CONVECTION SHOULD END QUICKLY SATURDAY EVENING WITH LOSS OF
HEATING AND AS COLD FRONT CLEARS THE COAST. SOME CLOUDS AND
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS COULD LINGER IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN...OTHERWISE
A MAINLY CLEAR AND SEASONABLY COOL NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER AND
MID 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS...AND IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60 ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A HIGHLY PERSISTENT PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CONUS OVER
THE NEXT WEEK OR SO. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES WHILE A PERSISTENT
CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE NORTHEAST.

A MORE SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BEGIN TO DIG SOUTHWARD
FROM CANADA ON MONDAY. THIS...IN CONJUNCTION WITH A SLOW MOVING
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS NEW ENGLAND LATE IN THE DAY AND IN THE
EVENING HOURS. EXPECT ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY
NIGHT.

STRONG CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS
ON TUESDAY WITH POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM. SIMILAR CONDITIONS WILL
OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY...WITH MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS DUE TO
STEEP LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH VERY COLD AIR ALOFT. THE
MORNINGS WILL LIKELY BEGIN WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...WITH CLOUDS
QUICKLY BUILDING AND THICKENING OVER THE REGION WITH THE DAYTIME
HEATING.

ON FRIDAY...CYCLOGENESIS WILL LIKELY OCCUR ALONG THE SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND COASTLINE WITH YET MORE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY DIGGING SOUTH
FROM CANADA. THIS SLOW MOVING SYSTEM IN COMBINATION WITH DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL LIKELY BRING PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z SAT/...SCT MVFR PSBL BTW 08 - 12Z SAT IN
VALLEY FOG AND STRATUS. SCT MVFR 16 SAT - 00Z SUN IN SHRA AND
TSRA. SCT MVFR PSBL ONCE AGAIN BTW 08 - 12Z SUN IN VALLEY FOG AND
STRATUS.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR SAT NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY... WITH VLY FOG
POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT. SCT SHRA/TSRA WILL IMPACT MOST OF THE
TERMINALS LATE MON AND MON NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...SOUTHERLY FLOW LATE SAT AND
SAT EVENING MAY BRIEFLY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT OUTSIDE THE BAYS
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...OTHERWISE QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS
PERIOD.

LONG TERM...PERSISTENT SW FLOW SUNDAY AND MONDAY COULD BRING
HIGHER SWELLS TO THE COASTLINE SUNDAY NIGHT....WHICH COULD LINGER
THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KCAR 311920
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
320 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
SATURDAY. THESE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS UPPER DISTURBANCES AFFECT THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISOLATED SHOWER/TSTORM ACTIVITY WILL QUICKLY WIND DOWN THIS
EVENING ONCE THE SUN GOES DOWN AND WE LOSE DAYTIME HEATING. IT`LL
BE A LITTLE LESS HUMID TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S AREAWIDE.

THE FOCUS FOR TOMORROW BECOMES UPPER TROUGH/COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF
THE SURFACE FRONT/WIND SHIFT LINE EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND THEN
SHIFT SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. IT LOOKS LIKE THINGS
SHOULD FIRE UP A LITTLE EARLIER THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED, WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO THE FAR NORTHWEST BY EARLY
AFTERNOON AND INTO INTERIOR DOWNEAST BY EARLY EVENING. 0-6KM SHEAR
LOOKS GOOD AT 40-45 KT, ALONG WITH MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES 5.5-6.5
C/KM. ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE MODELS INDICATE SB CAPES OF 1100+J/KG,
THIS IS LIKELY OVERDONE AND THE MORE MODEST 600-1000 J/KG SEEMS MORE
REASONABLE. THIS ALONG WITH A DRY LAYER ALOFT COULD SERVE TO LIMIT
SEVERE POTENTIAL. THE BIGGEST THREAT WOULD BE HAIL GIVEN THE COLD
AIR ALOFT, THOUGH GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ANY STORMS THAT
ARE ABLE TO TAP THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT. THIS THINKING FOLLOWS
CLOSELY WITH SPC, WHICH HAS CONTINUED TO INCLUDE ALL OF INTERIOR
MAINE IN A MARGINAL SEVERE RISK IN THEIR LATEST DAY 2 OUTLOOK. HAVE
THEREFORE KEPT ENHANCED WORDING IN TOMORROW`S FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS PINE TREE STATE...WITH A
WEAK SHORTWAVE AFFECTING OUR CWA ON SUNDAY...AND THEN A STRONG
UPPER LOW SWINGING EWD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. THE FEATURES WILL
PRODUCE THEIR OWN ROUND OF SHOWERS AND TSTORMS...WITH THE SECOND
HAVING MORE WIDESPREAD AND HEAVIER PRECIP. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SEASONABLY WARM WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 70S TO THE LOWER
80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A TROUGH DIGGING INTO EASTERN CANADA WILL SET THE STAGE FOR SOME
COOLER WEATHER COMING IN DURING THE MID WEEK PERIOD. A COLD FRONT
COMING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. THE AIR BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT WILL ONLY
BE SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER ON TUESDAY. SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AIR
WILL THEN FILTER INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE BEGINS DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS QUEBEC.
SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH ON
WEDNESDAY. THE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO LIFT AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST ON
THURSDAY ALLOWING FOR A DRY DAY WITH SUNSHINE AND TEMPS A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. DRY WEATHER MAY LAST INTO FRIDAY BEFORE A
DEEPER AND STRONGER TROUGH APPROACHES OVER THE WEEKEND BRINGING A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS SATURDAY THEN A TREND TOWARD COOLER CONDITIONS
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
HOWEVER, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON
ALONG A COLD FRONT AND CROSS FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DURING
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. MVFR AND EVEN LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN ANY CONVECTION, ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL.

SHORT TERM: SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS MUCH OUR FCST AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY. REDUCED CIGS AND
VSBYS WILL PROBABLY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER SHOWERS AND STORMS.
ALSO...STRONG WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS ON MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED THROUGH THE NEAR TERM.
THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT, BUT MAINLY
QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED UNTIL A COLD FRONT BRINGS SHOWERS LATE
SATURDAY.


SHORT TERM: WINDS AND WAVE HEIGHTS WILL STAY BELOW SCA CRITERIA
DURING SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. HOWEVER SOME THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY MAY AFFECT COASTAL MARINE ZONES ON MONDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HASTINGS
SHORT TERM...BERDES
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...HASTINGS/BERDES
MARINE...HASTINGS/BERDES



000
FXUS61 KCAR 311920
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
320 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
SATURDAY. THESE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS UPPER DISTURBANCES AFFECT THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISOLATED SHOWER/TSTORM ACTIVITY WILL QUICKLY WIND DOWN THIS
EVENING ONCE THE SUN GOES DOWN AND WE LOSE DAYTIME HEATING. IT`LL
BE A LITTLE LESS HUMID TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S AREAWIDE.

THE FOCUS FOR TOMORROW BECOMES UPPER TROUGH/COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF
THE SURFACE FRONT/WIND SHIFT LINE EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND THEN
SHIFT SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. IT LOOKS LIKE THINGS
SHOULD FIRE UP A LITTLE EARLIER THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED, WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO THE FAR NORTHWEST BY EARLY
AFTERNOON AND INTO INTERIOR DOWNEAST BY EARLY EVENING. 0-6KM SHEAR
LOOKS GOOD AT 40-45 KT, ALONG WITH MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES 5.5-6.5
C/KM. ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE MODELS INDICATE SB CAPES OF 1100+J/KG,
THIS IS LIKELY OVERDONE AND THE MORE MODEST 600-1000 J/KG SEEMS MORE
REASONABLE. THIS ALONG WITH A DRY LAYER ALOFT COULD SERVE TO LIMIT
SEVERE POTENTIAL. THE BIGGEST THREAT WOULD BE HAIL GIVEN THE COLD
AIR ALOFT, THOUGH GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ANY STORMS THAT
ARE ABLE TO TAP THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT. THIS THINKING FOLLOWS
CLOSELY WITH SPC, WHICH HAS CONTINUED TO INCLUDE ALL OF INTERIOR
MAINE IN A MARGINAL SEVERE RISK IN THEIR LATEST DAY 2 OUTLOOK. HAVE
THEREFORE KEPT ENHANCED WORDING IN TOMORROW`S FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS PINE TREE STATE...WITH A
WEAK SHORTWAVE AFFECTING OUR CWA ON SUNDAY...AND THEN A STRONG
UPPER LOW SWINGING EWD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. THE FEATURES WILL
PRODUCE THEIR OWN ROUND OF SHOWERS AND TSTORMS...WITH THE SECOND
HAVING MORE WIDESPREAD AND HEAVIER PRECIP. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SEASONABLY WARM WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 70S TO THE LOWER
80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A TROUGH DIGGING INTO EASTERN CANADA WILL SET THE STAGE FOR SOME
COOLER WEATHER COMING IN DURING THE MID WEEK PERIOD. A COLD FRONT
COMING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. THE AIR BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT WILL ONLY
BE SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER ON TUESDAY. SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AIR
WILL THEN FILTER INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE BEGINS DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS QUEBEC.
SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH ON
WEDNESDAY. THE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO LIFT AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST ON
THURSDAY ALLOWING FOR A DRY DAY WITH SUNSHINE AND TEMPS A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. DRY WEATHER MAY LAST INTO FRIDAY BEFORE A
DEEPER AND STRONGER TROUGH APPROACHES OVER THE WEEKEND BRINGING A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS SATURDAY THEN A TREND TOWARD COOLER CONDITIONS
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
HOWEVER, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON
ALONG A COLD FRONT AND CROSS FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DURING
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. MVFR AND EVEN LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN ANY CONVECTION, ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL.

SHORT TERM: SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS MUCH OUR FCST AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY. REDUCED CIGS AND
VSBYS WILL PROBABLY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER SHOWERS AND STORMS.
ALSO...STRONG WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS ON MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED THROUGH THE NEAR TERM.
THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT, BUT MAINLY
QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED UNTIL A COLD FRONT BRINGS SHOWERS LATE
SATURDAY.


SHORT TERM: WINDS AND WAVE HEIGHTS WILL STAY BELOW SCA CRITERIA
DURING SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. HOWEVER SOME THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY MAY AFFECT COASTAL MARINE ZONES ON MONDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HASTINGS
SHORT TERM...BERDES
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...HASTINGS/BERDES
MARINE...HASTINGS/BERDES



000
FXUS61 KCAR 311920
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
320 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
SATURDAY. THESE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS UPPER DISTURBANCES AFFECT THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISOLATED SHOWER/TSTORM ACTIVITY WILL QUICKLY WIND DOWN THIS
EVENING ONCE THE SUN GOES DOWN AND WE LOSE DAYTIME HEATING. IT`LL
BE A LITTLE LESS HUMID TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S AREAWIDE.

THE FOCUS FOR TOMORROW BECOMES UPPER TROUGH/COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF
THE SURFACE FRONT/WIND SHIFT LINE EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND THEN
SHIFT SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. IT LOOKS LIKE THINGS
SHOULD FIRE UP A LITTLE EARLIER THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED, WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO THE FAR NORTHWEST BY EARLY
AFTERNOON AND INTO INTERIOR DOWNEAST BY EARLY EVENING. 0-6KM SHEAR
LOOKS GOOD AT 40-45 KT, ALONG WITH MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES 5.5-6.5
C/KM. ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE MODELS INDICATE SB CAPES OF 1100+J/KG,
THIS IS LIKELY OVERDONE AND THE MORE MODEST 600-1000 J/KG SEEMS MORE
REASONABLE. THIS ALONG WITH A DRY LAYER ALOFT COULD SERVE TO LIMIT
SEVERE POTENTIAL. THE BIGGEST THREAT WOULD BE HAIL GIVEN THE COLD
AIR ALOFT, THOUGH GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ANY STORMS THAT
ARE ABLE TO TAP THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT. THIS THINKING FOLLOWS
CLOSELY WITH SPC, WHICH HAS CONTINUED TO INCLUDE ALL OF INTERIOR
MAINE IN A MARGINAL SEVERE RISK IN THEIR LATEST DAY 2 OUTLOOK. HAVE
THEREFORE KEPT ENHANCED WORDING IN TOMORROW`S FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS PINE TREE STATE...WITH A
WEAK SHORTWAVE AFFECTING OUR CWA ON SUNDAY...AND THEN A STRONG
UPPER LOW SWINGING EWD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. THE FEATURES WILL
PRODUCE THEIR OWN ROUND OF SHOWERS AND TSTORMS...WITH THE SECOND
HAVING MORE WIDESPREAD AND HEAVIER PRECIP. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SEASONABLY WARM WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 70S TO THE LOWER
80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A TROUGH DIGGING INTO EASTERN CANADA WILL SET THE STAGE FOR SOME
COOLER WEATHER COMING IN DURING THE MID WEEK PERIOD. A COLD FRONT
COMING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. THE AIR BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT WILL ONLY
BE SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER ON TUESDAY. SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AIR
WILL THEN FILTER INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE BEGINS DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS QUEBEC.
SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH ON
WEDNESDAY. THE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO LIFT AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST ON
THURSDAY ALLOWING FOR A DRY DAY WITH SUNSHINE AND TEMPS A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. DRY WEATHER MAY LAST INTO FRIDAY BEFORE A
DEEPER AND STRONGER TROUGH APPROACHES OVER THE WEEKEND BRINGING A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS SATURDAY THEN A TREND TOWARD COOLER CONDITIONS
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
HOWEVER, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON
ALONG A COLD FRONT AND CROSS FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DURING
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. MVFR AND EVEN LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN ANY CONVECTION, ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL.

SHORT TERM: SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS MUCH OUR FCST AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY. REDUCED CIGS AND
VSBYS WILL PROBABLY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER SHOWERS AND STORMS.
ALSO...STRONG WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS ON MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED THROUGH THE NEAR TERM.
THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT, BUT MAINLY
QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED UNTIL A COLD FRONT BRINGS SHOWERS LATE
SATURDAY.


SHORT TERM: WINDS AND WAVE HEIGHTS WILL STAY BELOW SCA CRITERIA
DURING SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. HOWEVER SOME THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY MAY AFFECT COASTAL MARINE ZONES ON MONDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HASTINGS
SHORT TERM...BERDES
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...HASTINGS/BERDES
MARINE...HASTINGS/BERDES



000
FXUS61 KCAR 311920
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
320 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
SATURDAY. THESE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS UPPER DISTURBANCES AFFECT THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISOLATED SHOWER/TSTORM ACTIVITY WILL QUICKLY WIND DOWN THIS
EVENING ONCE THE SUN GOES DOWN AND WE LOSE DAYTIME HEATING. IT`LL
BE A LITTLE LESS HUMID TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S AREAWIDE.

THE FOCUS FOR TOMORROW BECOMES UPPER TROUGH/COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF
THE SURFACE FRONT/WIND SHIFT LINE EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND THEN
SHIFT SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. IT LOOKS LIKE THINGS
SHOULD FIRE UP A LITTLE EARLIER THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED, WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO THE FAR NORTHWEST BY EARLY
AFTERNOON AND INTO INTERIOR DOWNEAST BY EARLY EVENING. 0-6KM SHEAR
LOOKS GOOD AT 40-45 KT, ALONG WITH MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES 5.5-6.5
C/KM. ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE MODELS INDICATE SB CAPES OF 1100+J/KG,
THIS IS LIKELY OVERDONE AND THE MORE MODEST 600-1000 J/KG SEEMS MORE
REASONABLE. THIS ALONG WITH A DRY LAYER ALOFT COULD SERVE TO LIMIT
SEVERE POTENTIAL. THE BIGGEST THREAT WOULD BE HAIL GIVEN THE COLD
AIR ALOFT, THOUGH GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ANY STORMS THAT
ARE ABLE TO TAP THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT. THIS THINKING FOLLOWS
CLOSELY WITH SPC, WHICH HAS CONTINUED TO INCLUDE ALL OF INTERIOR
MAINE IN A MARGINAL SEVERE RISK IN THEIR LATEST DAY 2 OUTLOOK. HAVE
THEREFORE KEPT ENHANCED WORDING IN TOMORROW`S FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS PINE TREE STATE...WITH A
WEAK SHORTWAVE AFFECTING OUR CWA ON SUNDAY...AND THEN A STRONG
UPPER LOW SWINGING EWD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. THE FEATURES WILL
PRODUCE THEIR OWN ROUND OF SHOWERS AND TSTORMS...WITH THE SECOND
HAVING MORE WIDESPREAD AND HEAVIER PRECIP. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SEASONABLY WARM WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 70S TO THE LOWER
80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A TROUGH DIGGING INTO EASTERN CANADA WILL SET THE STAGE FOR SOME
COOLER WEATHER COMING IN DURING THE MID WEEK PERIOD. A COLD FRONT
COMING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. THE AIR BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT WILL ONLY
BE SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER ON TUESDAY. SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AIR
WILL THEN FILTER INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE BEGINS DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS QUEBEC.
SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH ON
WEDNESDAY. THE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO LIFT AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST ON
THURSDAY ALLOWING FOR A DRY DAY WITH SUNSHINE AND TEMPS A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. DRY WEATHER MAY LAST INTO FRIDAY BEFORE A
DEEPER AND STRONGER TROUGH APPROACHES OVER THE WEEKEND BRINGING A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS SATURDAY THEN A TREND TOWARD COOLER CONDITIONS
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
HOWEVER, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON
ALONG A COLD FRONT AND CROSS FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DURING
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. MVFR AND EVEN LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN ANY CONVECTION, ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL.

SHORT TERM: SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS MUCH OUR FCST AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY. REDUCED CIGS AND
VSBYS WILL PROBABLY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER SHOWERS AND STORMS.
ALSO...STRONG WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS ON MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED THROUGH THE NEAR TERM.
THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT, BUT MAINLY
QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED UNTIL A COLD FRONT BRINGS SHOWERS LATE
SATURDAY.


SHORT TERM: WINDS AND WAVE HEIGHTS WILL STAY BELOW SCA CRITERIA
DURING SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. HOWEVER SOME THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY MAY AFFECT COASTAL MARINE ZONES ON MONDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HASTINGS
SHORT TERM...BERDES
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...HASTINGS/BERDES
MARINE...HASTINGS/BERDES



000
FXUS61 KCAR 311920
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
320 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
SATURDAY. THESE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS UPPER DISTURBANCES AFFECT THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISOLATED SHOWER/TSTORM ACTIVITY WILL QUICKLY WIND DOWN THIS
EVENING ONCE THE SUN GOES DOWN AND WE LOSE DAYTIME HEATING. IT`LL
BE A LITTLE LESS HUMID TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S AREAWIDE.

THE FOCUS FOR TOMORROW BECOMES UPPER TROUGH/COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF
THE SURFACE FRONT/WIND SHIFT LINE EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND THEN
SHIFT SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. IT LOOKS LIKE THINGS
SHOULD FIRE UP A LITTLE EARLIER THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED, WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO THE FAR NORTHWEST BY EARLY
AFTERNOON AND INTO INTERIOR DOWNEAST BY EARLY EVENING. 0-6KM SHEAR
LOOKS GOOD AT 40-45 KT, ALONG WITH MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES 5.5-6.5
C/KM. ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE MODELS INDICATE SB CAPES OF 1100+J/KG,
THIS IS LIKELY OVERDONE AND THE MORE MODEST 600-1000 J/KG SEEMS MORE
REASONABLE. THIS ALONG WITH A DRY LAYER ALOFT COULD SERVE TO LIMIT
SEVERE POTENTIAL. THE BIGGEST THREAT WOULD BE HAIL GIVEN THE COLD
AIR ALOFT, THOUGH GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ANY STORMS THAT
ARE ABLE TO TAP THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT. THIS THINKING FOLLOWS
CLOSELY WITH SPC, WHICH HAS CONTINUED TO INCLUDE ALL OF INTERIOR
MAINE IN A MARGINAL SEVERE RISK IN THEIR LATEST DAY 2 OUTLOOK. HAVE
THEREFORE KEPT ENHANCED WORDING IN TOMORROW`S FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS PINE TREE STATE...WITH A
WEAK SHORTWAVE AFFECTING OUR CWA ON SUNDAY...AND THEN A STRONG
UPPER LOW SWINGING EWD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. THE FEATURES WILL
PRODUCE THEIR OWN ROUND OF SHOWERS AND TSTORMS...WITH THE SECOND
HAVING MORE WIDESPREAD AND HEAVIER PRECIP. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SEASONABLY WARM WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 70S TO THE LOWER
80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A TROUGH DIGGING INTO EASTERN CANADA WILL SET THE STAGE FOR SOME
COOLER WEATHER COMING IN DURING THE MID WEEK PERIOD. A COLD FRONT
COMING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. THE AIR BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT WILL ONLY
BE SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER ON TUESDAY. SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AIR
WILL THEN FILTER INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE BEGINS DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS QUEBEC.
SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH ON
WEDNESDAY. THE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO LIFT AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST ON
THURSDAY ALLOWING FOR A DRY DAY WITH SUNSHINE AND TEMPS A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. DRY WEATHER MAY LAST INTO FRIDAY BEFORE A
DEEPER AND STRONGER TROUGH APPROACHES OVER THE WEEKEND BRINGING A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS SATURDAY THEN A TREND TOWARD COOLER CONDITIONS
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
HOWEVER, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON
ALONG A COLD FRONT AND CROSS FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DURING
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. MVFR AND EVEN LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN ANY CONVECTION, ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL.

SHORT TERM: SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS MUCH OUR FCST AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY. REDUCED CIGS AND
VSBYS WILL PROBABLY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER SHOWERS AND STORMS.
ALSO...STRONG WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS ON MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED THROUGH THE NEAR TERM.
THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT, BUT MAINLY
QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED UNTIL A COLD FRONT BRINGS SHOWERS LATE
SATURDAY.


SHORT TERM: WINDS AND WAVE HEIGHTS WILL STAY BELOW SCA CRITERIA
DURING SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. HOWEVER SOME THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY MAY AFFECT COASTAL MARINE ZONES ON MONDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HASTINGS
SHORT TERM...BERDES
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...HASTINGS/BERDES
MARINE...HASTINGS/BERDES



000
FXUS61 KCAR 311920
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
320 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
SATURDAY. THESE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS UPPER DISTURBANCES AFFECT THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISOLATED SHOWER/TSTORM ACTIVITY WILL QUICKLY WIND DOWN THIS
EVENING ONCE THE SUN GOES DOWN AND WE LOSE DAYTIME HEATING. IT`LL
BE A LITTLE LESS HUMID TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S AREAWIDE.

THE FOCUS FOR TOMORROW BECOMES UPPER TROUGH/COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF
THE SURFACE FRONT/WIND SHIFT LINE EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND THEN
SHIFT SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. IT LOOKS LIKE THINGS
SHOULD FIRE UP A LITTLE EARLIER THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED, WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO THE FAR NORTHWEST BY EARLY
AFTERNOON AND INTO INTERIOR DOWNEAST BY EARLY EVENING. 0-6KM SHEAR
LOOKS GOOD AT 40-45 KT, ALONG WITH MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES 5.5-6.5
C/KM. ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE MODELS INDICATE SB CAPES OF 1100+J/KG,
THIS IS LIKELY OVERDONE AND THE MORE MODEST 600-1000 J/KG SEEMS MORE
REASONABLE. THIS ALONG WITH A DRY LAYER ALOFT COULD SERVE TO LIMIT
SEVERE POTENTIAL. THE BIGGEST THREAT WOULD BE HAIL GIVEN THE COLD
AIR ALOFT, THOUGH GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ANY STORMS THAT
ARE ABLE TO TAP THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT. THIS THINKING FOLLOWS
CLOSELY WITH SPC, WHICH HAS CONTINUED TO INCLUDE ALL OF INTERIOR
MAINE IN A MARGINAL SEVERE RISK IN THEIR LATEST DAY 2 OUTLOOK. HAVE
THEREFORE KEPT ENHANCED WORDING IN TOMORROW`S FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS PINE TREE STATE...WITH A
WEAK SHORTWAVE AFFECTING OUR CWA ON SUNDAY...AND THEN A STRONG
UPPER LOW SWINGING EWD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. THE FEATURES WILL
PRODUCE THEIR OWN ROUND OF SHOWERS AND TSTORMS...WITH THE SECOND
HAVING MORE WIDESPREAD AND HEAVIER PRECIP. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SEASONABLY WARM WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 70S TO THE LOWER
80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A TROUGH DIGGING INTO EASTERN CANADA WILL SET THE STAGE FOR SOME
COOLER WEATHER COMING IN DURING THE MID WEEK PERIOD. A COLD FRONT
COMING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. THE AIR BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT WILL ONLY
BE SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER ON TUESDAY. SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AIR
WILL THEN FILTER INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE BEGINS DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS QUEBEC.
SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH ON
WEDNESDAY. THE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO LIFT AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST ON
THURSDAY ALLOWING FOR A DRY DAY WITH SUNSHINE AND TEMPS A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. DRY WEATHER MAY LAST INTO FRIDAY BEFORE A
DEEPER AND STRONGER TROUGH APPROACHES OVER THE WEEKEND BRINGING A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS SATURDAY THEN A TREND TOWARD COOLER CONDITIONS
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
HOWEVER, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON
ALONG A COLD FRONT AND CROSS FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DURING
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. MVFR AND EVEN LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN ANY CONVECTION, ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL.

SHORT TERM: SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS MUCH OUR FCST AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY. REDUCED CIGS AND
VSBYS WILL PROBABLY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER SHOWERS AND STORMS.
ALSO...STRONG WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS ON MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED THROUGH THE NEAR TERM.
THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT, BUT MAINLY
QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED UNTIL A COLD FRONT BRINGS SHOWERS LATE
SATURDAY.


SHORT TERM: WINDS AND WAVE HEIGHTS WILL STAY BELOW SCA CRITERIA
DURING SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. HOWEVER SOME THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY MAY AFFECT COASTAL MARINE ZONES ON MONDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HASTINGS
SHORT TERM...BERDES
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...HASTINGS/BERDES
MARINE...HASTINGS/BERDES




000
FXUS61 KGYX 311843
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
243 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER
THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BEHIND THIS FRONT WE WILL
SEE ANOTHER DROP IN TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE
ALOFT...SITUATED OVER QUEBEC...WILL BRING A THREAT FOR SHOWERS OR
STORMS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. COOLER AIR AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
MOVE IN FOR THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK. BY LATE IN THE
WEEK...LOW PRESSURE MAY FORM ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC
SEABOARD...BRINGING MORE RAIN TO OUR REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AT 18Z...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WAS EXITING THE COAST...WITH A SURFACE
COLD FRONT SITUATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES. GOES WATER VAPOR SHOWED
AN UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER HUDSON BAY. ANOTHER WARM DAY ACROSS THE
AREA...BUT NOTICEABLY LESS HUMID AS WESTERLY FLOW INTRODUCED DRIER
AIR BEHIND THE FRONT. INSTABILITY CLOUDS WILL MELT AWAY THIS
EVENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING. OVER NIGHT...OUTSIDE OF A FEW STRAY
CLOUDS FOR THE MOUNTAINS...MOSTLY CLEAR WITH [PATCHY LATE NIGHT
VALLEY FOG. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO LOWER
AND MID 60S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
ON SATURDAY...A SHORTWAVE IMPULSE PIVOTING AROUND THE UPPER LOW
WILL CROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 70S AND 80S. WITH COOLER AIR
MOVING IN ALOFT...AND LOWERING FREEZING LEVELS...SOME OF THE
STRONGER CELLS MAY PRODUCE HAIL NEAR SEVERE THRESHOLD...ALONG
WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS. THE BEST CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL BE
FAR NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE INTO THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS OF
MAINE. FOR NOW...I`VE LIMITED ENHANCED WORDING TO GUSTY WINDS AND
SMALL HAIL AND CONFINED THE AREA TO FAR NORTHERN AND EASTERN
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA GIVEN SOME CONTINUED UNCERTAINTIES.

CONVECTION SHOULD END QUICKLY SATURDAY EVENING WITH LOSS OF
HEATING AND AS COLD FRONT CLEARS THE COAST. SOME CLOUDS AND
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS COULD LINGER IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN...OTHERWISE
A MAINLY CLEAR AND SEASONABLY COOL NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER AND
MID 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS...AND IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60 ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A HIGHLY PERSISTENT PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CONUS OVER
THE NEXT WEEK OR SO. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES WHILE A PERSISTENT
CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE NORTHEAST.

A MORE SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BEGIN TO DIG SOUTHWARD
FROM CANADA ON MONDAY. THIS...IN CONJUNCTION WITH A SLOW MOVING
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS NEW ENGLAND LATE IN THE DAY AND IN THE
EVENING HOURS. EXPECT ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY
NIGHT.

STRONG CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS
ON TUESDAY WITH POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM. SIMILAR CONDITIONS WILL
OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY...WITH MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS DUE TO
STEEP LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH VERY COLD AIR ALOFT. THE
MORNINGS WILL LIKELY BEGIN WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...WITH CLOUDS
QUICKLY BUILDING AND THICKENING OVER THE REGION WITH THE DAYTIME
HEATING.

ON FRIDAY...CYCLOGENESIS WILL LIKELY OCCUR ALONG THE SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND COASTLINE WITH YET MORE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY DIGGING SOUTH
FROM CANADA. THIS SLOW MOVING SYSTEM IN COMBINATION WITH DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL LIKELY BRING PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z SAT/...SCT MVFR PSBL BTW 08 - 12Z SAT IN
VALLEY FOG AND STRATUS. SCT MVFR 16 SAT - 00Z SUN IN SHRA AND
TSRA. SCT MVFR PSBL ONCE AGAIN BTW 08 - 12Z SUN IN VALLEY FOG AND
STRATUS.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR SAT NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY... WITH VLY FOG
POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT. SCT SHRA/TSRA WILL IMPACT MOST OF THE
TERMINALS LATE MON AND MON NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...SOUTHERLY FLOW LATE SAT AND
SAT EVENING MAY BRIEFLY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT OUTSIDE THE BAYS
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...OTHERWISE QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS
PERIOD.

LONG TERM...PERSISTENT SW FLOW SUNDAY AND MONDAY COULD BRING
HIGHER SWELLS TO THE COASTLINE SUNDAY NIGHT....WHICH COULD LINGER
THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KGYX 311843
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
243 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER
THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BEHIND THIS FRONT WE WILL
SEE ANOTHER DROP IN TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE
ALOFT...SITUATED OVER QUEBEC...WILL BRING A THREAT FOR SHOWERS OR
STORMS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. COOLER AIR AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
MOVE IN FOR THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK. BY LATE IN THE
WEEK...LOW PRESSURE MAY FORM ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC
SEABOARD...BRINGING MORE RAIN TO OUR REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AT 18Z...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WAS EXITING THE COAST...WITH A SURFACE
COLD FRONT SITUATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES. GOES WATER VAPOR SHOWED
AN UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER HUDSON BAY. ANOTHER WARM DAY ACROSS THE
AREA...BUT NOTICEABLY LESS HUMID AS WESTERLY FLOW INTRODUCED DRIER
AIR BEHIND THE FRONT. INSTABILITY CLOUDS WILL MELT AWAY THIS
EVENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING. OVER NIGHT...OUTSIDE OF A FEW STRAY
CLOUDS FOR THE MOUNTAINS...MOSTLY CLEAR WITH [PATCHY LATE NIGHT
VALLEY FOG. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO LOWER
AND MID 60S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
ON SATURDAY...A SHORTWAVE IMPULSE PIVOTING AROUND THE UPPER LOW
WILL CROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 70S AND 80S. WITH COOLER AIR
MOVING IN ALOFT...AND LOWERING FREEZING LEVELS...SOME OF THE
STRONGER CELLS MAY PRODUCE HAIL NEAR SEVERE THRESHOLD...ALONG
WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS. THE BEST CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL BE
FAR NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE INTO THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS OF
MAINE. FOR NOW...I`VE LIMITED ENHANCED WORDING TO GUSTY WINDS AND
SMALL HAIL AND CONFINED THE AREA TO FAR NORTHERN AND EASTERN
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA GIVEN SOME CONTINUED UNCERTAINTIES.

CONVECTION SHOULD END QUICKLY SATURDAY EVENING WITH LOSS OF
HEATING AND AS COLD FRONT CLEARS THE COAST. SOME CLOUDS AND
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS COULD LINGER IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN...OTHERWISE
A MAINLY CLEAR AND SEASONABLY COOL NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER AND
MID 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS...AND IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60 ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A HIGHLY PERSISTENT PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CONUS OVER
THE NEXT WEEK OR SO. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES WHILE A PERSISTENT
CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE NORTHEAST.

A MORE SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BEGIN TO DIG SOUTHWARD
FROM CANADA ON MONDAY. THIS...IN CONJUNCTION WITH A SLOW MOVING
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS NEW ENGLAND LATE IN THE DAY AND IN THE
EVENING HOURS. EXPECT ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY
NIGHT.

STRONG CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS
ON TUESDAY WITH POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM. SIMILAR CONDITIONS WILL
OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY...WITH MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS DUE TO
STEEP LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH VERY COLD AIR ALOFT. THE
MORNINGS WILL LIKELY BEGIN WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...WITH CLOUDS
QUICKLY BUILDING AND THICKENING OVER THE REGION WITH THE DAYTIME
HEATING.

ON FRIDAY...CYCLOGENESIS WILL LIKELY OCCUR ALONG THE SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND COASTLINE WITH YET MORE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY DIGGING SOUTH
FROM CANADA. THIS SLOW MOVING SYSTEM IN COMBINATION WITH DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL LIKELY BRING PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z SAT/...SCT MVFR PSBL BTW 08 - 12Z SAT IN
VALLEY FOG AND STRATUS. SCT MVFR 16 SAT - 00Z SUN IN SHRA AND
TSRA. SCT MVFR PSBL ONCE AGAIN BTW 08 - 12Z SUN IN VALLEY FOG AND
STRATUS.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR SAT NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY... WITH VLY FOG
POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT. SCT SHRA/TSRA WILL IMPACT MOST OF THE
TERMINALS LATE MON AND MON NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...SOUTHERLY FLOW LATE SAT AND
SAT EVENING MAY BRIEFLY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT OUTSIDE THE BAYS
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...OTHERWISE QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS
PERIOD.

LONG TERM...PERSISTENT SW FLOW SUNDAY AND MONDAY COULD BRING
HIGHER SWELLS TO THE COASTLINE SUNDAY NIGHT....WHICH COULD LINGER
THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KGYX 311843
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
243 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER
THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BEHIND THIS FRONT WE WILL
SEE ANOTHER DROP IN TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE
ALOFT...SITUATED OVER QUEBEC...WILL BRING A THREAT FOR SHOWERS OR
STORMS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. COOLER AIR AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
MOVE IN FOR THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK. BY LATE IN THE
WEEK...LOW PRESSURE MAY FORM ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC
SEABOARD...BRINGING MORE RAIN TO OUR REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AT 18Z...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WAS EXITING THE COAST...WITH A SURFACE
COLD FRONT SITUATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES. GOES WATER VAPOR SHOWED
AN UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER HUDSON BAY. ANOTHER WARM DAY ACROSS THE
AREA...BUT NOTICEABLY LESS HUMID AS WESTERLY FLOW INTRODUCED DRIER
AIR BEHIND THE FRONT. INSTABILITY CLOUDS WILL MELT AWAY THIS
EVENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING. OVER NIGHT...OUTSIDE OF A FEW STRAY
CLOUDS FOR THE MOUNTAINS...MOSTLY CLEAR WITH [PATCHY LATE NIGHT
VALLEY FOG. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO LOWER
AND MID 60S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
ON SATURDAY...A SHORTWAVE IMPULSE PIVOTING AROUND THE UPPER LOW
WILL CROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 70S AND 80S. WITH COOLER AIR
MOVING IN ALOFT...AND LOWERING FREEZING LEVELS...SOME OF THE
STRONGER CELLS MAY PRODUCE HAIL NEAR SEVERE THRESHOLD...ALONG
WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS. THE BEST CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL BE
FAR NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE INTO THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS OF
MAINE. FOR NOW...I`VE LIMITED ENHANCED WORDING TO GUSTY WINDS AND
SMALL HAIL AND CONFINED THE AREA TO FAR NORTHERN AND EASTERN
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA GIVEN SOME CONTINUED UNCERTAINTIES.

CONVECTION SHOULD END QUICKLY SATURDAY EVENING WITH LOSS OF
HEATING AND AS COLD FRONT CLEARS THE COAST. SOME CLOUDS AND
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS COULD LINGER IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN...OTHERWISE
A MAINLY CLEAR AND SEASONABLY COOL NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER AND
MID 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS...AND IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60 ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A HIGHLY PERSISTENT PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CONUS OVER
THE NEXT WEEK OR SO. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES WHILE A PERSISTENT
CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE NORTHEAST.

A MORE SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BEGIN TO DIG SOUTHWARD
FROM CANADA ON MONDAY. THIS...IN CONJUNCTION WITH A SLOW MOVING
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS NEW ENGLAND LATE IN THE DAY AND IN THE
EVENING HOURS. EXPECT ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY
NIGHT.

STRONG CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS
ON TUESDAY WITH POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM. SIMILAR CONDITIONS WILL
OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY...WITH MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS DUE TO
STEEP LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH VERY COLD AIR ALOFT. THE
MORNINGS WILL LIKELY BEGIN WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...WITH CLOUDS
QUICKLY BUILDING AND THICKENING OVER THE REGION WITH THE DAYTIME
HEATING.

ON FRIDAY...CYCLOGENESIS WILL LIKELY OCCUR ALONG THE SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND COASTLINE WITH YET MORE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY DIGGING SOUTH
FROM CANADA. THIS SLOW MOVING SYSTEM IN COMBINATION WITH DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL LIKELY BRING PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z SAT/...SCT MVFR PSBL BTW 08 - 12Z SAT IN
VALLEY FOG AND STRATUS. SCT MVFR 16 SAT - 00Z SUN IN SHRA AND
TSRA. SCT MVFR PSBL ONCE AGAIN BTW 08 - 12Z SUN IN VALLEY FOG AND
STRATUS.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR SAT NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY... WITH VLY FOG
POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT. SCT SHRA/TSRA WILL IMPACT MOST OF THE
TERMINALS LATE MON AND MON NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...SOUTHERLY FLOW LATE SAT AND
SAT EVENING MAY BRIEFLY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT OUTSIDE THE BAYS
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...OTHERWISE QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS
PERIOD.

LONG TERM...PERSISTENT SW FLOW SUNDAY AND MONDAY COULD BRING
HIGHER SWELLS TO THE COASTLINE SUNDAY NIGHT....WHICH COULD LINGER
THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KGYX 311843
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
243 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER
THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BEHIND THIS FRONT WE WILL
SEE ANOTHER DROP IN TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE
ALOFT...SITUATED OVER QUEBEC...WILL BRING A THREAT FOR SHOWERS OR
STORMS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. COOLER AIR AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
MOVE IN FOR THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK. BY LATE IN THE
WEEK...LOW PRESSURE MAY FORM ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC
SEABOARD...BRINGING MORE RAIN TO OUR REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AT 18Z...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WAS EXITING THE COAST...WITH A SURFACE
COLD FRONT SITUATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES. GOES WATER VAPOR SHOWED
AN UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER HUDSON BAY. ANOTHER WARM DAY ACROSS THE
AREA...BUT NOTICEABLY LESS HUMID AS WESTERLY FLOW INTRODUCED DRIER
AIR BEHIND THE FRONT. INSTABILITY CLOUDS WILL MELT AWAY THIS
EVENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING. OVER NIGHT...OUTSIDE OF A FEW STRAY
CLOUDS FOR THE MOUNTAINS...MOSTLY CLEAR WITH [PATCHY LATE NIGHT
VALLEY FOG. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO LOWER
AND MID 60S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
ON SATURDAY...A SHORTWAVE IMPULSE PIVOTING AROUND THE UPPER LOW
WILL CROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 70S AND 80S. WITH COOLER AIR
MOVING IN ALOFT...AND LOWERING FREEZING LEVELS...SOME OF THE
STRONGER CELLS MAY PRODUCE HAIL NEAR SEVERE THRESHOLD...ALONG
WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS. THE BEST CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL BE
FAR NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE INTO THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS OF
MAINE. FOR NOW...I`VE LIMITED ENHANCED WORDING TO GUSTY WINDS AND
SMALL HAIL AND CONFINED THE AREA TO FAR NORTHERN AND EASTERN
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA GIVEN SOME CONTINUED UNCERTAINTIES.

CONVECTION SHOULD END QUICKLY SATURDAY EVENING WITH LOSS OF
HEATING AND AS COLD FRONT CLEARS THE COAST. SOME CLOUDS AND
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS COULD LINGER IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN...OTHERWISE
A MAINLY CLEAR AND SEASONABLY COOL NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER AND
MID 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS...AND IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60 ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A HIGHLY PERSISTENT PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CONUS OVER
THE NEXT WEEK OR SO. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES WHILE A PERSISTENT
CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE NORTHEAST.

A MORE SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BEGIN TO DIG SOUTHWARD
FROM CANADA ON MONDAY. THIS...IN CONJUNCTION WITH A SLOW MOVING
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS NEW ENGLAND LATE IN THE DAY AND IN THE
EVENING HOURS. EXPECT ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY
NIGHT.

STRONG CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS
ON TUESDAY WITH POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM. SIMILAR CONDITIONS WILL
OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY...WITH MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS DUE TO
STEEP LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH VERY COLD AIR ALOFT. THE
MORNINGS WILL LIKELY BEGIN WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...WITH CLOUDS
QUICKLY BUILDING AND THICKENING OVER THE REGION WITH THE DAYTIME
HEATING.

ON FRIDAY...CYCLOGENESIS WILL LIKELY OCCUR ALONG THE SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND COASTLINE WITH YET MORE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY DIGGING SOUTH
FROM CANADA. THIS SLOW MOVING SYSTEM IN COMBINATION WITH DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL LIKELY BRING PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z SAT/...SCT MVFR PSBL BTW 08 - 12Z SAT IN
VALLEY FOG AND STRATUS. SCT MVFR 16 SAT - 00Z SUN IN SHRA AND
TSRA. SCT MVFR PSBL ONCE AGAIN BTW 08 - 12Z SUN IN VALLEY FOG AND
STRATUS.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR SAT NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY... WITH VLY FOG
POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT. SCT SHRA/TSRA WILL IMPACT MOST OF THE
TERMINALS LATE MON AND MON NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...SOUTHERLY FLOW LATE SAT AND
SAT EVENING MAY BRIEFLY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT OUTSIDE THE BAYS
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...OTHERWISE QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS
PERIOD.

LONG TERM...PERSISTENT SW FLOW SUNDAY AND MONDAY COULD BRING
HIGHER SWELLS TO THE COASTLINE SUNDAY NIGHT....WHICH COULD LINGER
THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KCAR 311656
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1256 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS NORTHERN MAINE TODAY FOLLOWED BY
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TONIGHT. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1255 PM UPDATE...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOW
STARTING TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION, ESPECIALLY NORTHERN
AROOSTOOK COUNTY. HAVE ALSO SEEN A CELL OR TWO POP UP JUST ON THE
OTHER SIDE OF THE BORDER FROM NORTHERN WASHINGTON COUNTY. THE
LATEST HI-RES GUIDANCE LOOKS TO BE LITTLE OVER DONE ON CONVECTION
COVERAGE, BUT IT DOES SHOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING ALL THE WAY DOWN TO
DOVER-FOXCROFT TO LINCOLN TO TOPSFIELD. HAVE BUMPED UP POPS FROM
THESE AREAS NORTH. ALSO ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES UP IN SOME SPOTS,
ESPECIALLY THE FAR NORTHWEST WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY AROUND
80F. NO OTHER CHANGES WERE NEEDED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AFTER THE FOG THIS MORNING, THE CHALLENGE
WILL BE THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS MOVED TO THE E W/FOG AND LOW CLOUDS IN
ITS WAKE. SOME WEAK SURFACE RIDGING WAS TAKING PLACE PER THE 06Z
ANALYSIS ALLOWING FROM PARTIAL CLEARING ABOVE THE LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG THAT WAS IN PLACE ATTM. THE CWA SHOULD SEE SUNSHINE AFTER
12Z(8AM)AND THE FOG BURNS OFF. IT WILL REMAIN QUITE HUMID TODAY
W/DAYTIME TEMPERATURES PUSHING THROUGH THE 70S AND LOWER 80S FOR
THE NORTHERN 1/2 WHILE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS SHOULD SEE MID
80S. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE W/ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROF WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS ENOUGH MID LEVEL
FORCING TO KICK OFF SOME SHOWERS AND W/THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZING.
SB CAPES ARE FORECAST TO HIT 800-1200 JOULES W/LIS DROPPING TO -2.
SHEAR IS THERE AT THE 0-6KM LAYER(25KTS). THIS WOULD BE ENOUGH TO
ALLOW FOR TSTMS TO DEVELOP. THE LACKING FEATURES TO PREVENT
ORGANIZED CELLS IS THAT MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE LIMITED TO ABOUT
800MBS AND 850-500MB LAPSE RATES LOOK MARGINAL(6.0C/KM).
THEREFORE, DECIDED TO GO W/ISOLATED TSTMS AND CONFINED THIS TO THE
NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS WHERE BEST INSTABILITY AND FORCING
RESIDE.

FOR TONIGHT, WEAK HIGH PRES LOOKS TO RIDGE ACROSS THE CWA PROVIDING
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. OVERNIGHT LOWS EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60. CONCERNED ABOUT SOME SHALLOW
FOG, BUT W/A LIGHT WEST WIND FORECAST DECIDED AGAINST IT ATTM.
THE DAYCREW CAN ASSESS THIS FURTHER TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THIS PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH A LARGE SCALE UPPER TROF CENTERED
ACROSS THE HUDSON BAY REGION. A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES
WILL TRAVERSE NORTHERN MAINE WITHIN THE MEAN FLOW BOTH WEEKEND
DAYS, SETTING THE STAGE FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

THE QUESTION IS WHETHER OR NOT ANY STORMS ON SATURDAY HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO REACH SEVERE LIMITS. THE SHEAR AT 0-6 KM IS THERE
AND IS SHOWN TO BE IN THE RANGE OF 35-45 KTS. H5-H7 LAPSE RATES
ARE ALSO FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE AROUND 6.5-7.0 C/KM, WITH FREEZING
LEVELS EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 10 KFT. LIMITING FACTOR MAY BE AMOUNT
OF DRY AIR ALOFT AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY WITH CAPES ONLY AROUND
500-900 J/KG. THAT BEING SAID, IF STORMS DEVELOP THEY COULD TAP
IN TO STRONGER WINDS ALOFT, AND WITH AFOREMENTIONED FREEZING
LEVELS THINK HAIL WOULD ALSO BE POSSIBLE. CONSIDERING THESE
FACTORS, DECISION WAS MADE TO INCLUDE ENHANCED WORDING FOR GUSTY
WINDS AND SMALL HAIL ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS FOR
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ALSO NOTED THE NEW DAY TWO OUTLOOK FROM SPC
THAT HAS MOST OF OUR REGION IN MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE.

ANY ONGOING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD QUICKLY DIMINISH
EARLY SATURDAY EVENING AS THE UPPER IMPULSE MOVES EAST AND WE LOSE
THE HEATING. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
LATER SATURDAY NIGHT. SOME PATCHY FOG COULDN`T BE RULED OUT
OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO NEAR 60 DEGREES.

SUNDAY SHOULD SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH TEMPERATURES BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE
IN THE MID 70S NORTH AND UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 DOWN EAST, ALTHOUGH
IT WILL BE A BIT COOLER ON THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE LONG TERM. A
500 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR HUDSON BAY AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD WILL MIGRATE EASTWARD BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. WILL HAVE
TO KEEP THE MENTION OF THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THROUGH MOST OF THE
PERIOD. COULDN`T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM
EITHER BUT WILL NOT MENTION ATTM. TEMPERATURES AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD WILL BE NEAR NORMAL AND THEN FALL TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS BY
MID TO LATE WEEK AS COOLER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROF
SETTLES ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE ATTM W/SOME FOG AND LOW
CLOUDS. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO VFR BY MID MORNING
AS DRIER WORKS ACROSS THE TERMINALS. VFR LOOKS TO BE A GOOD BET
THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: AVIATORS CAN EXPECT THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH WE ARE EXPECTING
VFR TO PREVAIL MOST OF THE DAYTIME HOURS, THERE COULD BE PERIODS OF
MVFR IN ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY IN SCATTERED AFTERNOON
SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: FOG COULD HAMPER NAVIGATION THIS MORNING. DRIER AIR
WORKING ACROSS THE WATERS WILL ALLOW FOR VSBYS TO IMPROVE. WINDS
WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SW 10 TO 15 KTS. EXPECT SEAS TO RUN 3 TO
4 FT AWAY FROM THE INTRA-COASTAL ZONE.

SHORT TERM: WIND/SEAS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HASTINGS/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...HASTINGS/HEWITT/DUDA
MARINE...HASTINGS/HEWITT/DUDA




000
FXUS61 KGYX 311609
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1209 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TODAY...PROVIDING A DAY
WITH VERY LITTLE CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS FOR A CHANGE.
IT WILL STILL BE WARM TODAY...BUT NOTICEABLY LESS HUMID THAN
PREVIOUS DAYS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY...BRINGING
ANOTHER THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BEHIND THIS FRONT WE
WILL SEE ANOTHER DROP IN TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY. WEAK LOW
PRESSURE ALOFT...SITUATED OVER QUEBEC...WILL BRING A THREAT FOR
SHOWERS OR STORMS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. COOLER AIR MOVES FOR THE
MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...

1202 PM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO REFLECT SATELLITE TRENDS AND TO
INGEST CURRENT MESONET INTO SHORT TERM GRIDS.

PREV DISC...
925 AM...QUIET DAY ON TAP WITH WESTERLY FLOW ALLOWING EVEN THE
COAST TO WARM WELL INTO THE 80S TODAY. ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS FOR
THIS ESTF UPDATE TO REFLECT THE 13Z MESONET IN 1ST PERIOD GRIDS.

PREV DISC...
UPDATE: LOWERED SKY COVER SOMEWHAT AND ALLOWED PATCHY FOG TO
CONTINUE THROUGH 12Z BASED ON EARLY MORNING OBSERVATIONS.
OTHERWISE...NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED TO THE GOING FORECAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: PATCHY DENSE FOG THROUGH EARLY
MORNING...THEN NIL.

CURRENT PATTERN: HUDSON BAY LOW HAS BECOME RE-ESTABLISHED AS OF THIS
WRITING AS POTENT SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW HAVE BECOME
VERTICALLY-STACKED AND STATIONARY IN THIS REGION. SOUTH OF THIS
FEATURE A COLD FRONT IS DRAPED FROM QUEBEC SOUTHWEST ALONG THE EAST
COAST OF THE UNITED STATES.  BEHIND THIS FEATURE...EARLY MORNING
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS SUBSTANTIAL MIDLEVEL DRYING IS TAKING
PLACE...WITH LLEVEL DRYING OCCURRING JUST A TAD SLOWER IN A BROAD
SUBSIDENT REGIME.  LOOKING UPSTREAM...ADDITIONAL LOW-MID LEVEL
MOISTURE CAN BE SEEN ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE OVER THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES PINWHEELING EAST. IN THE POST-FRONTAL
AIRMASS...A GENERALLY QUIET DAY IS EXPECTED TODAY...WITH FORECAST
CONCERNS CENTERED AROUND THE AFOREMENTIONED UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE AND
IT/S IMPLICATIONS FOR CLOUD/SHOWER POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON.

FOG: A HANDFUL OF LOCATIONS HAVE SEEN VSBYS DROP BELOW A MILE EARLY
THIS MORNING.  EXPECT VSBYS TO IMPROVE TOWARDS DAYBREAK AS LLEVEL
DRY ADVECTION CONTINUES...WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING THROUGH THE 60S AND
INTO THE UPPER 50S.

CLOUDS/PRECIP: MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE NOW CROSSING FROM ONTARIO INTO
WESTERN QUEBEC WILL RACE RAPIDLY EAST-NORTHEAST TODAY WITH AN UPTICK
IN QG FORCING FOR ASCENT SPREADING ACROSS NORTHERN NH AND NW MAINE
EARLY...BUT THEN CONTINUING EAST WITH OUR REGION IN ANTICYCLONIC
DPVA FOR THE AFTERNOON. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A NON-ZERO BUILDUP OF
CAPE DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH THE RELATIVELY COOL TEMPERATURES
ALOFT... HOWEVER...SUBSTANTIAL CAPPING WILL BE IN PLACE IN THE
H6-7 LAYER. THUS...HAVE A HARD TIME SEEING MUCH IF ANY SHRA
ACTIVITY DEVELOPING...WITH PERHAPS A SPRINKLE IN THE MOUNTAINS
DURING THE AFTERNOON. A MUCH BETTER BET IS SOME INCREASE IN
CLOUDINESS BY AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE LOWER DEWPOINTS...IT WILL BE
VERY PLEASANT DAY TO END JULY.

TEMPERATURES: H8 TEMPS ARE SLOWLY DROPPING IN THE POST-FRONTAL
AIRMASS...BUT WILL REMAIN IN THE MID TEENS...SUPPORTING HIGHS WELL
INTO THE 80S PARTICULARLY IN THE DOWNSLOPE REGIMES...WITH LESS
IMPACTS FROM ANY SEA-BREEZES GIVEN DECENT WESTERLY GRADIENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: THREAT FOR AN ISOLATED SEVERE
STORM PARTICULARLY NORTHERN AREAS ON SATURDAY.

PATTERN/IMPLICATIONS: CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE PATTERN
THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE COLUMN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD
WITH ONE PRIMARY DISTURBANCE IN THIS CYCLONIC FLOW PUSHING INTO THE
AREA ON SATURDAY.  FORECAST CHALLENGES PRIMARILY CENTER ON THIS
FEATURE...AND IT/S ABILITY TO BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
REGION.

FRIDAY NIGHT:  GOOD FLOW OFF THE DECK AND A DRIER EVENING AIRMASS
SUGGESTS MUCH LESS FOG POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY AFTER A DAY
THAT SHOULD BE FREE FROM RAIN.  EXPECT SOME INCREASING MID AND UPPER
LEVEL CLOUDINESS FROM UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE LATE...WITH A PARTLY CLOUDY
NIGHT ON TAP THROUGHOUT THE REGION.  WITH THE DRIER LLEVEL
AIRMASS...A COOLER NIGHT LOOKS TO BE IN STORE...WITH LOWS RANGING
FROM THE MID 50S NORTH TO THE LOWER 60S COASTAL AREAS AND SOUTHERN
NEW HAMPSHIRE.

SATURDAY: ROBUST SHORTWAVE ROTATES INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY WITH
ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS OVERSPREADING THE REGION.  THIS QG
FORCING WILL BE WORKING WITH MODESTLY INCREASED MOISTURE AS COMPARED
TO FRIDAY AS PWATS MOVE BACK TO AROUND ONE INCH /RIGHT AROUND NORMAL
FOR THE FIRST DAY OF AUGUST/. LOW AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
DECENT...ASSISTED BY MID LEVEL COOL POOL TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION.
THUS...FULLY EXPECT SHOWERS TO EXPAND ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
MORNING AS DAYTIME HEATING LEADS TO GROWING LLEVEL INSTABILITY.
AS FOR THE THUNDER THREAT...INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL AS SURFACE
DEWPOINTS STRUGGLE BACK TO THE 60 DEGREE MARK. IN ADDITION...THERE
IS PLENTY OF DRY AIR ALOFT...WHICH...WHEN COMBINED WITH STOUT DEEP
SHEAR /0-6KM BULK SHEAR 40-50 KTS/ COULD POTENTIALLY PORTEND A
HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT DUE TO ENTRAINMENT. THAT SAID...WITH ENOUGH
INSTABILITY...ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WOULD HAVE ACCESS TO AMPLE
SHEAR AND LOWER FREEZING LEVELS THAN OF LATE...AND THUS A
CONDITIONAL SEVERE THREAT. BEST MOISTURE RESIDES FURTHER
NORTH...WHICH AGREES WELL WITH SPC/S INTRODUCTION OF A MARGINAL
RISK OVER COOS COUNTY NH AND MUCH OF NORTHERN MAINE. WILL
INTRODUCE MENTION OF THIS POTENTIAL IN THE MORNING HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE A TAD COOLER THAN ON
FRIDAY...PARTICULARLY FURTHER NORTH WHERE THE GREATEST CLOUD COVER
AND PRECIPITATION COVERAGE IS EXPECTED. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
RANGE FROM THE 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS THE LOWER/MIDDLE 80S OVER
SOUTHWEST MAINE AND SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
500 MB CONTINUES TO TEND BACK TOWARD A MORE +PNA
PATTERN...ALTHOUGH SKEWING MORE TOWARDS AN OMEGA BLOCK BY MID TO
LATE WEEK WITH TROUGHING FIRMLY ENSCONCED OVER JAMES BAY AND NRN
QUEBEC. THIS TREND WILL LEAD TO AN UNSETTLED PATTERN THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH THE THREAT FOR SHRA/TSRA...HIGHEST IN THE NORTHERN
ZONES. HOWEVER...FAST FLOW WILL KEEP THINGS MOVING AND PREVENT
ANY SIGNIFICANT RAIN EVENTS.

SUNDAY WILL SEE PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND CHANCE FOR SHRA/TSRA IN THE
MTNS. MON AFTERNOON INTO TUE LOOK LIKE THE BEST CHC FOR CWA WIDE
SHRA/TSRA AS TROUGHING SAGS S...AND PULLS A COLD FRONT THROUGH NRN
NEW ENGLAND. WED /THU WILL KEEP US ON THE COOLER SIDE OF THE
FRONT...AS IT STALLS ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC. SOME MTNS SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE AS UPPR LVL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD POOL WILL
BE JUST TO THE N OF THE CWA.

TEMPERATURE WILL SUNDAY WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
70S TO MID 80...BUT WILL CLIMB BACK ABOVE NORMAL ON MONDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE 80S...AND APPROACHING 90 AGAIN IN INTERIOR SRN NH.
OVERNIGHT LOWS SAT AND SUN NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO
MID 60S...AND MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE MORE MUGGY WITH LOWS IN THE 60S
TO AROUND 70. TEMPS MAY FALL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL BY MID TO
LATE WEEK. STAYED CLOSER TO THE EURO THOUGH AS THE GFS IS PROBABLY
OVERDOING THE COOL AIR INCURSION LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE THE COMING TAF
PERIOD. EXPECT FEW/SCT CU TO DEVELOP DURING THE DAY TODAY...WITH A
TRANSITION TO MORE MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE.

ONLY THREAT FOR RESTRICTIONS THROUGH DAYBREAK SATURDAY WILL BE IN
THE FORM ON FOG TONIGHT AT LEB/HIE.  FOG WILL BE LESS WIDESPREAD AND
DENSE THAN IT WAS THIS MORNING GIVEN DRIER LLEVEL AIRMASS...MODERATE
WINDS ALOFT...AND NO RAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.  THUS...WILL
ONLY CARRY SOME MVFR RESTRICTIONS IN THE HOURS LEADING TO DAYBREAK
AT THESE SITES.

WINDS: WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10G18KTS FOR THE DAY TODAY
BEFORE DIMINISHING TO 5KTS OR LESS TONIGHT.

A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY...PARTICULARLY FOR OUR NORTHERN NH
TERMINALS.  BRIEF MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN ANY OF THESE
SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH CONDITIONS REMAINING VFR ELSEWHERE.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR SAT NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY... WITH VLY FOG
POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT. SCT SHRA/TSRA WILL IMPACT MOST OF THE
TERMINALS LATE MON AND MON NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...WINDS/WAVES LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT LEVELS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD UNDER
GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS.

LONG TERM....PERSISTENT SW FLOW SUNDAY AND MONDAY COULD BRING
SWELL TO 5 FT OR SO BY SUNDAY NIGHT....WHICH WOULD LINGER THROUGH
MON NIGHT.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
ES



000
FXUS61 KCAR 311418
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1018 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS NORTHERN MAINE TODAY FOLLOWED BY
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TONIGHT. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1015 AM UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE NEEDED WITH THIS
UPDATE. MAINLY MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY, POPS, AND TEMPS TO MATCH
CURRENT SATELLITE/RADAR/SURFACE OBSERVATION TRENDS. ALSO REMOVED
FOG WORDING AS MOST OF IT HAS BURNED OFF THIS MORNING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AFTER THE FOG THIS MORNING, THE CHALLENGE
WILL BE THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS MOVED TO THE E W/FOG AND LOW CLOUDS IN
ITS WAKE. SOME WEAK SURFACE RIDGING WAS TAKING PLACE PER THE 06Z
ANALYSIS ALLOWING FROM PARTIAL CLEARING ABOVE THE LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG THAT WAS IN PLACE ATTM. THE CWA SHOULD SEE SUNSHINE AFTER
12Z(8AM)AND THE FOG BURNS OFF. IT WILL REMAIN QUITE HUMID TODAY
W/DAYTIME TEMPERATURES PUSHING THROUGH THE 70S AND LOWER 80S FOR
THE NORTHERN 1/2 WHILE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS SHOULD SEE MID
80S. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE W/ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROF WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS ENOUGH MID LEVEL
FORCING TO KICK OFF SOME SHOWERS AND W/THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZING.
SB CAPES ARE FORECAST TO HIT 800-1200 JOULES W/LIS DROPPING TO -2.
SHEAR IS THERE AT THE 0-6KM LAYER(25KTS). THIS WOULD BE ENOUGH TO
ALLOW FOR TSTMS TO DEVELOP. THE LACKING FEATURES TO PREVENT
ORGANIZED CELLS IS THAT MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE LIMITED TO ABOUT
800MBS AND 850-500MB LAPSE RATES LOOK MARGINAL(6.0C/KM).
THEREFORE, DECIDED TO GO W/ISOLATED TSTMS AND CONFINED THIS TO THE
NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS WHERE BEST INSTABILITY AND FORCING
RESIDE.

FOR TONIGHT, WEAK HIGH PRES LOOKS TO RIDGE ACROSS THE CWA PROVIDING
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. OVERNIGHT LOWS EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60. CONCERNED ABOUT SOME SHALLOW
FOG, BUT W/A LIGHT WEST WIND FORECAST DECIDED AGAINST IT ATTM.
THE DAYCREW CAN ASSESS THIS FURTHER TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THIS PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH A LARGE SCALE UPPER TROF CENTERED
ACROSS THE HUDSON BAY REGION. A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES
WILL TRAVERSE NORTHERN MAINE WITHIN THE MEAN FLOW BOTH WEEKEND
DAYS, SETTING THE STAGE FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

THE QUESTION IS WHETHER OR NOT ANY STORMS ON SATURDAY HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO REACH SEVERE LIMITS. THE SHEAR AT 0-6 KM IS THERE
AND IS SHOWN TO BE IN THE RANGE OF 35-45 KTS. H5-H7 LAPSE RATES
ARE ALSO FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE AROUND 6.5-7.0 C/KM, WITH FREEZING
LEVELS EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 10 KFT. LIMITING FACTOR MAY BE AMOUNT
OF DRY AIR ALOFT AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY WITH CAPES ONLY AROUND
500-900 J/KG. THAT BEING SAID, IF STORMS DEVELOP THEY COULD TAP
IN TO STRONGER WINDS ALOFT, AND WITH AFOREMENTIONED FREEZING
LEVELS THINK HAIL WOULD ALSO BE POSSIBLE. CONSIDERING THESE
FACTORS, DECISION WAS MADE TO INCLUDE ENHANCED WORDING FOR GUSTY
WINDS AND SMALL HAIL ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS FOR
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ALSO NOTED THE NEW DAY TWO OUTLOOK FROM SPC
THAT HAS MOST OF OUR REGION IN MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE.

ANY ONGOING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD QUICKLY DIMINISH
EARLY SATURDAY EVENING AS THE UPPER IMPULSE MOVES EAST AND WE LOSE
THE HEATING. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
LATER SATURDAY NIGHT. SOME PATCHY FOG COULDN`T BE RULED OUT
OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO NEAR 60 DEGREES.

SUNDAY SHOULD SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH TEMPERATURES BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE
IN THE MID 70S NORTH AND UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 DOWN EAST, ALTHOUGH
IT WILL BE A BIT COOLER ON THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE LONG TERM. A
500 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR HUDSON BAY AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD WILL MIGRATE EASTWARD BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. WILL HAVE
TO KEEP THE MENTION OF THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THROUGH MOST OF THE
PERIOD. COULDN`T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM
EITHER BUT WILL NOT MENTION ATTM. TEMPERATURES AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD WILL BE NEAR NORMAL AND THEN FALL TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS BY
MID TO LATE WEEK AS COOLER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROF
SETTLES ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE ATTM W/SOME FOG AND LOW
CLOUDS. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO VFR BY MID MORNING
AS DRIER WORKS ACROSS THE TERMINALS. VFR LOOKS TO BE A GOOD BET
THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: AVIATORS CAN EXPECT THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH WE ARE EXPECTING
VFR TO PREVAIL MOST OF THE DAYTIME HOURS, THERE COULD BE PERIODS OF
MVFR IN ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY IN SCATTERED AFTERNOON
SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: FOG COULD HAMPER NAVIGATION THIS MORNING. DRIER AIR
WORKING ACROSS THE WATERS WILL ALLOW FOR VSBYS TO IMPROVE. WINDS
WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SW 10 TO 15 KTS. EXPECT SEAS TO RUN 3 TO
4 FT AWAY FROM THE INTRA-COASTAL ZONE.

SHORT TERM: WIND/SEAS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HASTINGS/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...HASTINGS/HEWITT/DUDA
MARINE...HASTINGS/HEWITT/DUDA




000
FXUS61 KCAR 311418
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1018 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS NORTHERN MAINE TODAY FOLLOWED BY
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TONIGHT. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1015 AM UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE NEEDED WITH THIS
UPDATE. MAINLY MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY, POPS, AND TEMPS TO MATCH
CURRENT SATELLITE/RADAR/SURFACE OBSERVATION TRENDS. ALSO REMOVED
FOG WORDING AS MOST OF IT HAS BURNED OFF THIS MORNING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AFTER THE FOG THIS MORNING, THE CHALLENGE
WILL BE THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS MOVED TO THE E W/FOG AND LOW CLOUDS IN
ITS WAKE. SOME WEAK SURFACE RIDGING WAS TAKING PLACE PER THE 06Z
ANALYSIS ALLOWING FROM PARTIAL CLEARING ABOVE THE LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG THAT WAS IN PLACE ATTM. THE CWA SHOULD SEE SUNSHINE AFTER
12Z(8AM)AND THE FOG BURNS OFF. IT WILL REMAIN QUITE HUMID TODAY
W/DAYTIME TEMPERATURES PUSHING THROUGH THE 70S AND LOWER 80S FOR
THE NORTHERN 1/2 WHILE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS SHOULD SEE MID
80S. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE W/ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROF WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS ENOUGH MID LEVEL
FORCING TO KICK OFF SOME SHOWERS AND W/THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZING.
SB CAPES ARE FORECAST TO HIT 800-1200 JOULES W/LIS DROPPING TO -2.
SHEAR IS THERE AT THE 0-6KM LAYER(25KTS). THIS WOULD BE ENOUGH TO
ALLOW FOR TSTMS TO DEVELOP. THE LACKING FEATURES TO PREVENT
ORGANIZED CELLS IS THAT MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE LIMITED TO ABOUT
800MBS AND 850-500MB LAPSE RATES LOOK MARGINAL(6.0C/KM).
THEREFORE, DECIDED TO GO W/ISOLATED TSTMS AND CONFINED THIS TO THE
NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS WHERE BEST INSTABILITY AND FORCING
RESIDE.

FOR TONIGHT, WEAK HIGH PRES LOOKS TO RIDGE ACROSS THE CWA PROVIDING
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. OVERNIGHT LOWS EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60. CONCERNED ABOUT SOME SHALLOW
FOG, BUT W/A LIGHT WEST WIND FORECAST DECIDED AGAINST IT ATTM.
THE DAYCREW CAN ASSESS THIS FURTHER TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THIS PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH A LARGE SCALE UPPER TROF CENTERED
ACROSS THE HUDSON BAY REGION. A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES
WILL TRAVERSE NORTHERN MAINE WITHIN THE MEAN FLOW BOTH WEEKEND
DAYS, SETTING THE STAGE FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

THE QUESTION IS WHETHER OR NOT ANY STORMS ON SATURDAY HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO REACH SEVERE LIMITS. THE SHEAR AT 0-6 KM IS THERE
AND IS SHOWN TO BE IN THE RANGE OF 35-45 KTS. H5-H7 LAPSE RATES
ARE ALSO FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE AROUND 6.5-7.0 C/KM, WITH FREEZING
LEVELS EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 10 KFT. LIMITING FACTOR MAY BE AMOUNT
OF DRY AIR ALOFT AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY WITH CAPES ONLY AROUND
500-900 J/KG. THAT BEING SAID, IF STORMS DEVELOP THEY COULD TAP
IN TO STRONGER WINDS ALOFT, AND WITH AFOREMENTIONED FREEZING
LEVELS THINK HAIL WOULD ALSO BE POSSIBLE. CONSIDERING THESE
FACTORS, DECISION WAS MADE TO INCLUDE ENHANCED WORDING FOR GUSTY
WINDS AND SMALL HAIL ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS FOR
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ALSO NOTED THE NEW DAY TWO OUTLOOK FROM SPC
THAT HAS MOST OF OUR REGION IN MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE.

ANY ONGOING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD QUICKLY DIMINISH
EARLY SATURDAY EVENING AS THE UPPER IMPULSE MOVES EAST AND WE LOSE
THE HEATING. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
LATER SATURDAY NIGHT. SOME PATCHY FOG COULDN`T BE RULED OUT
OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO NEAR 60 DEGREES.

SUNDAY SHOULD SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH TEMPERATURES BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE
IN THE MID 70S NORTH AND UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 DOWN EAST, ALTHOUGH
IT WILL BE A BIT COOLER ON THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE LONG TERM. A
500 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR HUDSON BAY AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD WILL MIGRATE EASTWARD BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. WILL HAVE
TO KEEP THE MENTION OF THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THROUGH MOST OF THE
PERIOD. COULDN`T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM
EITHER BUT WILL NOT MENTION ATTM. TEMPERATURES AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD WILL BE NEAR NORMAL AND THEN FALL TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS BY
MID TO LATE WEEK AS COOLER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROF
SETTLES ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE ATTM W/SOME FOG AND LOW
CLOUDS. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO VFR BY MID MORNING
AS DRIER WORKS ACROSS THE TERMINALS. VFR LOOKS TO BE A GOOD BET
THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: AVIATORS CAN EXPECT THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH WE ARE EXPECTING
VFR TO PREVAIL MOST OF THE DAYTIME HOURS, THERE COULD BE PERIODS OF
MVFR IN ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY IN SCATTERED AFTERNOON
SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: FOG COULD HAMPER NAVIGATION THIS MORNING. DRIER AIR
WORKING ACROSS THE WATERS WILL ALLOW FOR VSBYS TO IMPROVE. WINDS
WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SW 10 TO 15 KTS. EXPECT SEAS TO RUN 3 TO
4 FT AWAY FROM THE INTRA-COASTAL ZONE.

SHORT TERM: WIND/SEAS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HASTINGS/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...HASTINGS/HEWITT/DUDA
MARINE...HASTINGS/HEWITT/DUDA



000
FXUS61 KCAR 311418
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1018 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS NORTHERN MAINE TODAY FOLLOWED BY
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TONIGHT. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1015 AM UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE NEEDED WITH THIS
UPDATE. MAINLY MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY, POPS, AND TEMPS TO MATCH
CURRENT SATELLITE/RADAR/SURFACE OBSERVATION TRENDS. ALSO REMOVED
FOG WORDING AS MOST OF IT HAS BURNED OFF THIS MORNING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AFTER THE FOG THIS MORNING, THE CHALLENGE
WILL BE THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS MOVED TO THE E W/FOG AND LOW CLOUDS IN
ITS WAKE. SOME WEAK SURFACE RIDGING WAS TAKING PLACE PER THE 06Z
ANALYSIS ALLOWING FROM PARTIAL CLEARING ABOVE THE LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG THAT WAS IN PLACE ATTM. THE CWA SHOULD SEE SUNSHINE AFTER
12Z(8AM)AND THE FOG BURNS OFF. IT WILL REMAIN QUITE HUMID TODAY
W/DAYTIME TEMPERATURES PUSHING THROUGH THE 70S AND LOWER 80S FOR
THE NORTHERN 1/2 WHILE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS SHOULD SEE MID
80S. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE W/ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROF WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS ENOUGH MID LEVEL
FORCING TO KICK OFF SOME SHOWERS AND W/THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZING.
SB CAPES ARE FORECAST TO HIT 800-1200 JOULES W/LIS DROPPING TO -2.
SHEAR IS THERE AT THE 0-6KM LAYER(25KTS). THIS WOULD BE ENOUGH TO
ALLOW FOR TSTMS TO DEVELOP. THE LACKING FEATURES TO PREVENT
ORGANIZED CELLS IS THAT MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE LIMITED TO ABOUT
800MBS AND 850-500MB LAPSE RATES LOOK MARGINAL(6.0C/KM).
THEREFORE, DECIDED TO GO W/ISOLATED TSTMS AND CONFINED THIS TO THE
NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS WHERE BEST INSTABILITY AND FORCING
RESIDE.

FOR TONIGHT, WEAK HIGH PRES LOOKS TO RIDGE ACROSS THE CWA PROVIDING
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. OVERNIGHT LOWS EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60. CONCERNED ABOUT SOME SHALLOW
FOG, BUT W/A LIGHT WEST WIND FORECAST DECIDED AGAINST IT ATTM.
THE DAYCREW CAN ASSESS THIS FURTHER TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THIS PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH A LARGE SCALE UPPER TROF CENTERED
ACROSS THE HUDSON BAY REGION. A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES
WILL TRAVERSE NORTHERN MAINE WITHIN THE MEAN FLOW BOTH WEEKEND
DAYS, SETTING THE STAGE FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

THE QUESTION IS WHETHER OR NOT ANY STORMS ON SATURDAY HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO REACH SEVERE LIMITS. THE SHEAR AT 0-6 KM IS THERE
AND IS SHOWN TO BE IN THE RANGE OF 35-45 KTS. H5-H7 LAPSE RATES
ARE ALSO FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE AROUND 6.5-7.0 C/KM, WITH FREEZING
LEVELS EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 10 KFT. LIMITING FACTOR MAY BE AMOUNT
OF DRY AIR ALOFT AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY WITH CAPES ONLY AROUND
500-900 J/KG. THAT BEING SAID, IF STORMS DEVELOP THEY COULD TAP
IN TO STRONGER WINDS ALOFT, AND WITH AFOREMENTIONED FREEZING
LEVELS THINK HAIL WOULD ALSO BE POSSIBLE. CONSIDERING THESE
FACTORS, DECISION WAS MADE TO INCLUDE ENHANCED WORDING FOR GUSTY
WINDS AND SMALL HAIL ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS FOR
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ALSO NOTED THE NEW DAY TWO OUTLOOK FROM SPC
THAT HAS MOST OF OUR REGION IN MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE.

ANY ONGOING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD QUICKLY DIMINISH
EARLY SATURDAY EVENING AS THE UPPER IMPULSE MOVES EAST AND WE LOSE
THE HEATING. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
LATER SATURDAY NIGHT. SOME PATCHY FOG COULDN`T BE RULED OUT
OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO NEAR 60 DEGREES.

SUNDAY SHOULD SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH TEMPERATURES BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE
IN THE MID 70S NORTH AND UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 DOWN EAST, ALTHOUGH
IT WILL BE A BIT COOLER ON THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE LONG TERM. A
500 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR HUDSON BAY AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD WILL MIGRATE EASTWARD BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. WILL HAVE
TO KEEP THE MENTION OF THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THROUGH MOST OF THE
PERIOD. COULDN`T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM
EITHER BUT WILL NOT MENTION ATTM. TEMPERATURES AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD WILL BE NEAR NORMAL AND THEN FALL TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS BY
MID TO LATE WEEK AS COOLER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROF
SETTLES ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE ATTM W/SOME FOG AND LOW
CLOUDS. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO VFR BY MID MORNING
AS DRIER WORKS ACROSS THE TERMINALS. VFR LOOKS TO BE A GOOD BET
THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: AVIATORS CAN EXPECT THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH WE ARE EXPECTING
VFR TO PREVAIL MOST OF THE DAYTIME HOURS, THERE COULD BE PERIODS OF
MVFR IN ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY IN SCATTERED AFTERNOON
SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: FOG COULD HAMPER NAVIGATION THIS MORNING. DRIER AIR
WORKING ACROSS THE WATERS WILL ALLOW FOR VSBYS TO IMPROVE. WINDS
WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SW 10 TO 15 KTS. EXPECT SEAS TO RUN 3 TO
4 FT AWAY FROM THE INTRA-COASTAL ZONE.

SHORT TERM: WIND/SEAS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HASTINGS/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...HASTINGS/HEWITT/DUDA
MARINE...HASTINGS/HEWITT/DUDA



000
FXUS61 KCAR 311418
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1018 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS NORTHERN MAINE TODAY FOLLOWED BY
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TONIGHT. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1015 AM UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE NEEDED WITH THIS
UPDATE. MAINLY MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY, POPS, AND TEMPS TO MATCH
CURRENT SATELLITE/RADAR/SURFACE OBSERVATION TRENDS. ALSO REMOVED
FOG WORDING AS MOST OF IT HAS BURNED OFF THIS MORNING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AFTER THE FOG THIS MORNING, THE CHALLENGE
WILL BE THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS MOVED TO THE E W/FOG AND LOW CLOUDS IN
ITS WAKE. SOME WEAK SURFACE RIDGING WAS TAKING PLACE PER THE 06Z
ANALYSIS ALLOWING FROM PARTIAL CLEARING ABOVE THE LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG THAT WAS IN PLACE ATTM. THE CWA SHOULD SEE SUNSHINE AFTER
12Z(8AM)AND THE FOG BURNS OFF. IT WILL REMAIN QUITE HUMID TODAY
W/DAYTIME TEMPERATURES PUSHING THROUGH THE 70S AND LOWER 80S FOR
THE NORTHERN 1/2 WHILE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS SHOULD SEE MID
80S. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE W/ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROF WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS ENOUGH MID LEVEL
FORCING TO KICK OFF SOME SHOWERS AND W/THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZING.
SB CAPES ARE FORECAST TO HIT 800-1200 JOULES W/LIS DROPPING TO -2.
SHEAR IS THERE AT THE 0-6KM LAYER(25KTS). THIS WOULD BE ENOUGH TO
ALLOW FOR TSTMS TO DEVELOP. THE LACKING FEATURES TO PREVENT
ORGANIZED CELLS IS THAT MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE LIMITED TO ABOUT
800MBS AND 850-500MB LAPSE RATES LOOK MARGINAL(6.0C/KM).
THEREFORE, DECIDED TO GO W/ISOLATED TSTMS AND CONFINED THIS TO THE
NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS WHERE BEST INSTABILITY AND FORCING
RESIDE.

FOR TONIGHT, WEAK HIGH PRES LOOKS TO RIDGE ACROSS THE CWA PROVIDING
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. OVERNIGHT LOWS EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60. CONCERNED ABOUT SOME SHALLOW
FOG, BUT W/A LIGHT WEST WIND FORECAST DECIDED AGAINST IT ATTM.
THE DAYCREW CAN ASSESS THIS FURTHER TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THIS PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH A LARGE SCALE UPPER TROF CENTERED
ACROSS THE HUDSON BAY REGION. A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES
WILL TRAVERSE NORTHERN MAINE WITHIN THE MEAN FLOW BOTH WEEKEND
DAYS, SETTING THE STAGE FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

THE QUESTION IS WHETHER OR NOT ANY STORMS ON SATURDAY HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO REACH SEVERE LIMITS. THE SHEAR AT 0-6 KM IS THERE
AND IS SHOWN TO BE IN THE RANGE OF 35-45 KTS. H5-H7 LAPSE RATES
ARE ALSO FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE AROUND 6.5-7.0 C/KM, WITH FREEZING
LEVELS EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 10 KFT. LIMITING FACTOR MAY BE AMOUNT
OF DRY AIR ALOFT AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY WITH CAPES ONLY AROUND
500-900 J/KG. THAT BEING SAID, IF STORMS DEVELOP THEY COULD TAP
IN TO STRONGER WINDS ALOFT, AND WITH AFOREMENTIONED FREEZING
LEVELS THINK HAIL WOULD ALSO BE POSSIBLE. CONSIDERING THESE
FACTORS, DECISION WAS MADE TO INCLUDE ENHANCED WORDING FOR GUSTY
WINDS AND SMALL HAIL ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS FOR
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ALSO NOTED THE NEW DAY TWO OUTLOOK FROM SPC
THAT HAS MOST OF OUR REGION IN MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE.

ANY ONGOING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD QUICKLY DIMINISH
EARLY SATURDAY EVENING AS THE UPPER IMPULSE MOVES EAST AND WE LOSE
THE HEATING. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
LATER SATURDAY NIGHT. SOME PATCHY FOG COULDN`T BE RULED OUT
OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO NEAR 60 DEGREES.

SUNDAY SHOULD SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH TEMPERATURES BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE
IN THE MID 70S NORTH AND UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 DOWN EAST, ALTHOUGH
IT WILL BE A BIT COOLER ON THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE LONG TERM. A
500 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR HUDSON BAY AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD WILL MIGRATE EASTWARD BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. WILL HAVE
TO KEEP THE MENTION OF THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THROUGH MOST OF THE
PERIOD. COULDN`T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM
EITHER BUT WILL NOT MENTION ATTM. TEMPERATURES AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD WILL BE NEAR NORMAL AND THEN FALL TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS BY
MID TO LATE WEEK AS COOLER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROF
SETTLES ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE ATTM W/SOME FOG AND LOW
CLOUDS. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO VFR BY MID MORNING
AS DRIER WORKS ACROSS THE TERMINALS. VFR LOOKS TO BE A GOOD BET
THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: AVIATORS CAN EXPECT THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH WE ARE EXPECTING
VFR TO PREVAIL MOST OF THE DAYTIME HOURS, THERE COULD BE PERIODS OF
MVFR IN ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY IN SCATTERED AFTERNOON
SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: FOG COULD HAMPER NAVIGATION THIS MORNING. DRIER AIR
WORKING ACROSS THE WATERS WILL ALLOW FOR VSBYS TO IMPROVE. WINDS
WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SW 10 TO 15 KTS. EXPECT SEAS TO RUN 3 TO
4 FT AWAY FROM THE INTRA-COASTAL ZONE.

SHORT TERM: WIND/SEAS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HASTINGS/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...HASTINGS/HEWITT/DUDA
MARINE...HASTINGS/HEWITT/DUDA




000
FXUS61 KGYX 311331
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
931 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TODAY...PROVIDING A DAY
WITH VERY LITTLE CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS FOR A CHANGE.
IT WILL STILL BE WARM TODAY...BUT NOTICEABLY LESS HUMID THAN
PREVIOUS DAYS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY...BRINGING
ANOTHER THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BEHIND THIS FRONT WE
WILL SEE ANOTHER DROP IN TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY. WEAK LOW
PRESSURE ALOFT...SITUATED OVER QUEBEC...WILL BRING A THREAT FOR
SHOWERS OR STORMS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. COOLER AIR MOVES FOR THE
MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...

925 AM...QUIET DAY ON TAP WITH WESTERLY FLOW ALLOWING EVEN THE
COAST TO WARM WELL INTO THE 80S TODAY. ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS FOR
THIS ESTF UPDATE TO REFLECT THE 13Z MESONET IN 1ST PERIOD GRIDS.

PREV DISC...
UPDATE: LOWERED SKY COVER SOMEWHAT AND ALLOWED PATCHY FOG TO
CONTINUE THROUGH 12Z BASED ON EARLY MORNING OBSERVATIONS.
OTHERWISE...NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED TO THE GOING FORECAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: PATCHY DENSE FOG THROUGH EARLY
MORNING...THEN NIL.

CURRENT PATTERN: HUDSON BAY LOW HAS BECOME RE-ESTABLISHED AS OF THIS
WRITING AS POTENT SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW HAVE BECOME
VERTICALLY-STACKED AND STATIONARY IN THIS REGION. SOUTH OF THIS
FEATURE A COLD FRONT IS DRAPED FROM QUEBEC SOUTHWEST ALONG THE EAST
COAST OF THE UNITED STATES.  BEHIND THIS FEATURE...EARLY MORNING
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS SUBSTANTIAL MIDLEVEL DRYING IS TAKING
PLACE...WITH LLEVEL DRYING OCCURRING JUST A TAD SLOWER IN A BROAD
SUBSIDENT REGIME.  LOOKING UPSTREAM...ADDITIONAL LOW-MID LEVEL
MOISTURE CAN BE SEEN ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE OVER THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES PINWHEELING EAST. IN THE POST-FRONTAL
AIRMASS...A GENERALLY QUIET DAY IS EXPECTED TODAY...WITH FORECAST
CONCERNS CENTERED AROUND THE AFOREMENTIONED UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE AND
IT/S IMPLICATIONS FOR CLOUD/SHOWER POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON.

FOG: A HANDFUL OF LOCATIONS HAVE SEEN VSBYS DROP BELOW A MILE EARLY
THIS MORNING.  EXPECT VSBYS TO IMPROVE TOWARDS DAYBREAK AS LLEVEL
DRY ADVECTION CONTINUES...WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING THROUGH THE 60S AND
INTO THE UPPER 50S.

CLOUDS/PRECIP: MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE NOW CROSSING FROM ONTARIO INTO
WESTERN QUEBEC WILL RACE RAPIDLY EAST-NORTHEAST TODAY WITH AN UPTICK
IN QG FORCING FOR ASCENT SPREADING ACROSS NORTHERN NH AND NW MAINE
EARLY...BUT THEN CONTINUING EAST WITH OUR REGION IN ANTICYCLONIC
DPVA FOR THE AFTERNOON. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A NON-ZERO BUILDUP OF
CAPE DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH THE RELATIVELY COOL TEMPERATURES
ALOFT... HOWEVER...SUBSTANTIAL CAPPING WILL BE IN PLACE IN THE
H6-7 LAYER. THUS...HAVE A HARD TIME SEEING MUCH IF ANY SHRA
ACTIVITY DEVELOPING...WITH PERHAPS A SPRINKLE IN THE MOUNTAINS
DURING THE AFTERNOON. A MUCH BETTER BET IS SOME INCREASE IN
CLOUDINESS BY AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE LOWER DEWPOINTS...IT WILL BE
VERY PLEASANT DAY TO END JULY.

TEMPERATURES: H8 TEMPS ARE SLOWLY DROPPING IN THE POST-FRONTAL
AIRMASS...BUT WILL REMAIN IN THE MID TEENS...SUPPORTING HIGHS WELL
INTO THE 80S PARTICULARLY IN THE DOWNSLOPE REGIMES...WITH LESS
IMPACTS FROM ANY SEA-BREEZES GIVEN DECENT WESTERLY GRADIENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: THREAT FOR AN ISOLATED SEVERE
STORM PARTICULARLY NORTHERN AREAS ON SATURDAY.

PATTERN/IMPLICATIONS: CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE PATTERN
THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE COLUMN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD
WITH ONE PRIMARY DISTURBANCE IN THIS CYCLONIC FLOW PUSHING INTO THE
AREA ON SATURDAY.  FORECAST CHALLENGES PRIMARILY CENTER ON THIS
FEATURE...AND IT/S ABILITY TO BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
REGION.

FRIDAY NIGHT:  GOOD FLOW OFF THE DECK AND A DRIER EVENING AIRMASS
SUGGESTS MUCH LESS FOG POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY AFTER A DAY
THAT SHOULD BE FREE FROM RAIN.  EXPECT SOME INCREASING MID AND UPPER
LEVEL CLOUDINESS FROM UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE LATE...WITH A PARTLY CLOUDY
NIGHT ON TAP THROUGHOUT THE REGION.  WITH THE DRIER LLEVEL
AIRMASS...A COOLER NIGHT LOOKS TO BE IN STORE...WITH LOWS RANGING
FROM THE MID 50S NORTH TO THE LOWER 60S COASTAL AREAS AND SOUTHERN
NEW HAMPSHIRE.

SATURDAY: ROBUST SHORTWAVE ROTATES INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY WITH
ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS OVERSPREADING THE REGION.  THIS QG
FORCING WILL BE WORKING WITH MODESTLY INCREASED MOISTURE AS COMPARED
TO FRIDAY AS PWATS MOVE BACK TO AROUND ONE INCH /RIGHT AROUND NORMAL
FOR THE FIRST DAY OF AUGUST/. LOW AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
DECENT...ASSISTED BY MID LEVEL COOL POOL TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION.
THUS...FULLY EXPECT SHOWERS TO EXPAND ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
MORNING AS DAYTIME HEATING LEADS TO GROWING LLEVEL INSTABILITY.
AS FOR THE THUNDER THREAT...INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL AS SURFACE
DEWPOINTS STRUGGLE BACK TO THE 60 DEGREE MARK. IN ADDITION...THERE
IS PLENTY OF DRY AIR ALOFT...WHICH...WHEN COMBINED WITH STOUT DEEP
SHEAR /0-6KM BULK SHEAR 40-50 KTS/ COULD POTENTIALLY PORTEND A
HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT DUE TO ENTRAINMENT. THAT SAID...WITH ENOUGH
INSTABILITY...ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WOULD HAVE ACCESS TO AMPLE
SHEAR AND LOWER FREEZING LEVELS THAN OF LATE...AND THUS A
CONDITIONAL SEVERE THREAT. BEST MOISTURE RESIDES FURTHER
NORTH...WHICH AGREES WELL WITH SPC/S INTRODUCTION OF A MARGINAL
RISK OVER COOS COUNTY NH AND MUCH OF NORTHERN MAINE. WILL
INTRODUCE MENTION OF THIS POTENTIAL IN THE MORNING HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE A TAD COOLER THAN ON
FRIDAY...PARTICULARLY FURTHER NORTH WHERE THE GREATEST CLOUD COVER
AND PRECIPITATION COVERAGE IS EXPECTED. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
RANGE FROM THE 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS THE LOWER/MIDDLE 80S OVER
SOUTHWEST MAINE AND SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
500 MB CONTINUES TO TEND BACK TOWARD A MORE +PNA
PATTERN...ALTHOUGH SKEWING MORE TOWARDS AN OMEGA BLOCK BY MID TO
LATE WEEK WITH TROUGHING FIRMLY ENSCONCED OVER JAMES BAY AND NRN
QUEBEC. THIS TREND WILL LEAD TO AN UNSETTLED PATTERN THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH THE THREAT FOR SHRA/TSRA...HIGHEST IN THE NORTHERN
ZONES. HOWEVER...FAST FLOW WILL KEEP THINGS MOVING AND PREVENT
ANY SIGNIFICANT RAIN EVENTS.

SUNDAY WILL SEE PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND CHANCE FOR SHRA/TSRA IN THE
MTNS. MON AFTERNOON INTO TUE LOOK LIKE THE BEST CHC FOR CWA WIDE
SHRA/TSRA AS TROUGHING SAGS S...AND PULLS A COLD FRONT THROUGH NRN
NEW ENGLAND. WED /THU WILL KEEP US ON THE COOLER SIDE OF THE
FRONT...AS IT STALLS ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC. SOME MTNS SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE AS UPPR LVL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD POOL WILL
BE JUST TO THE N OF THE CWA.

TEMPERATURE WILL SUNDAY WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
70S TO MID 80...BUT WILL CLIMB BACK ABOVE NORMAL ON MONDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE 80S...AND APPROACHING 90 AGAIN IN INTERIOR SRN NH.
OVERNIGHT LOWS SAT AND SUN NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO
MID 60S...AND MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE MORE MUGGY WITH LOWS IN THE 60S
TO AROUND 70. TEMPS MAY FALL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL BY MID TO
LATE WEEK. STAYED CLOSER TO THE EURO THOUGH AS THE GFS IS PROBABLY
OVERDOING THE COOL AIR INCURSION LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE THE COMING TAF
PERIOD. EXPECT FEW/SCT CU TO DEVELOP DURING THE DAY TODAY...WITH A
TRANSITION TO MORE MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE.

ONLY THREAT FOR RESTRICTIONS THROUGH DAYBREAK SATURDAY WILL BE IN
THE FORM ON FOG TONIGHT AT LEB/HIE.  FOG WILL BE LESS WIDESPREAD AND
DENSE THAN IT WAS THIS MORNING GIVEN DRIER LLEVEL AIRMASS...MODERATE
WINDS ALOFT...AND NO RAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.  THUS...WILL
ONLY CARRY SOME MVFR RESTRICTIONS IN THE HOURS LEADING TO DAYBREAK
AT THESE SITES.

WINDS: WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10G18KTS FOR THE DAY TODAY
BEFORE DIMINISHING TO 5KTS OR LESS TONIGHT.

A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY...PARTICULARLY FOR OUR NORTHERN NH
TERMINALS.  BRIEF MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN ANY OF THESE
SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH CONDITIONS REMAINING VFR ELSEWHERE.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR SAT NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY... WITH VLY FOG
POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT. SCT SHRA/TSRA WILL IMPACT MOST OF THE
TERMINALS LATE MON AND MON NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...WINDS/WAVES LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT LEVELS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD UNDER
GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS.

LONG TERM....PERSISTENT SW FLOW SUNDAY AND MONDAY COULD BRING
SWELL TO 5 FT OR SO BY SUNDAY NIGHT....WHICH WOULD LINGER THROUGH
MON NIGHT.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
ES



000
FXUS61 KGYX 311331
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
931 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TODAY...PROVIDING A DAY
WITH VERY LITTLE CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS FOR A CHANGE.
IT WILL STILL BE WARM TODAY...BUT NOTICEABLY LESS HUMID THAN
PREVIOUS DAYS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY...BRINGING
ANOTHER THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BEHIND THIS FRONT WE
WILL SEE ANOTHER DROP IN TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY. WEAK LOW
PRESSURE ALOFT...SITUATED OVER QUEBEC...WILL BRING A THREAT FOR
SHOWERS OR STORMS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. COOLER AIR MOVES FOR THE
MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...

925 AM...QUIET DAY ON TAP WITH WESTERLY FLOW ALLOWING EVEN THE
COAST TO WARM WELL INTO THE 80S TODAY. ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS FOR
THIS ESTF UPDATE TO REFLECT THE 13Z MESONET IN 1ST PERIOD GRIDS.

PREV DISC...
UPDATE: LOWERED SKY COVER SOMEWHAT AND ALLOWED PATCHY FOG TO
CONTINUE THROUGH 12Z BASED ON EARLY MORNING OBSERVATIONS.
OTHERWISE...NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED TO THE GOING FORECAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: PATCHY DENSE FOG THROUGH EARLY
MORNING...THEN NIL.

CURRENT PATTERN: HUDSON BAY LOW HAS BECOME RE-ESTABLISHED AS OF THIS
WRITING AS POTENT SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW HAVE BECOME
VERTICALLY-STACKED AND STATIONARY IN THIS REGION. SOUTH OF THIS
FEATURE A COLD FRONT IS DRAPED FROM QUEBEC SOUTHWEST ALONG THE EAST
COAST OF THE UNITED STATES.  BEHIND THIS FEATURE...EARLY MORNING
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS SUBSTANTIAL MIDLEVEL DRYING IS TAKING
PLACE...WITH LLEVEL DRYING OCCURRING JUST A TAD SLOWER IN A BROAD
SUBSIDENT REGIME.  LOOKING UPSTREAM...ADDITIONAL LOW-MID LEVEL
MOISTURE CAN BE SEEN ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE OVER THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES PINWHEELING EAST. IN THE POST-FRONTAL
AIRMASS...A GENERALLY QUIET DAY IS EXPECTED TODAY...WITH FORECAST
CONCERNS CENTERED AROUND THE AFOREMENTIONED UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE AND
IT/S IMPLICATIONS FOR CLOUD/SHOWER POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON.

FOG: A HANDFUL OF LOCATIONS HAVE SEEN VSBYS DROP BELOW A MILE EARLY
THIS MORNING.  EXPECT VSBYS TO IMPROVE TOWARDS DAYBREAK AS LLEVEL
DRY ADVECTION CONTINUES...WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING THROUGH THE 60S AND
INTO THE UPPER 50S.

CLOUDS/PRECIP: MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE NOW CROSSING FROM ONTARIO INTO
WESTERN QUEBEC WILL RACE RAPIDLY EAST-NORTHEAST TODAY WITH AN UPTICK
IN QG FORCING FOR ASCENT SPREADING ACROSS NORTHERN NH AND NW MAINE
EARLY...BUT THEN CONTINUING EAST WITH OUR REGION IN ANTICYCLONIC
DPVA FOR THE AFTERNOON. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A NON-ZERO BUILDUP OF
CAPE DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH THE RELATIVELY COOL TEMPERATURES
ALOFT... HOWEVER...SUBSTANTIAL CAPPING WILL BE IN PLACE IN THE
H6-7 LAYER. THUS...HAVE A HARD TIME SEEING MUCH IF ANY SHRA
ACTIVITY DEVELOPING...WITH PERHAPS A SPRINKLE IN THE MOUNTAINS
DURING THE AFTERNOON. A MUCH BETTER BET IS SOME INCREASE IN
CLOUDINESS BY AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE LOWER DEWPOINTS...IT WILL BE
VERY PLEASANT DAY TO END JULY.

TEMPERATURES: H8 TEMPS ARE SLOWLY DROPPING IN THE POST-FRONTAL
AIRMASS...BUT WILL REMAIN IN THE MID TEENS...SUPPORTING HIGHS WELL
INTO THE 80S PARTICULARLY IN THE DOWNSLOPE REGIMES...WITH LESS
IMPACTS FROM ANY SEA-BREEZES GIVEN DECENT WESTERLY GRADIENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: THREAT FOR AN ISOLATED SEVERE
STORM PARTICULARLY NORTHERN AREAS ON SATURDAY.

PATTERN/IMPLICATIONS: CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE PATTERN
THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE COLUMN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD
WITH ONE PRIMARY DISTURBANCE IN THIS CYCLONIC FLOW PUSHING INTO THE
AREA ON SATURDAY.  FORECAST CHALLENGES PRIMARILY CENTER ON THIS
FEATURE...AND IT/S ABILITY TO BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
REGION.

FRIDAY NIGHT:  GOOD FLOW OFF THE DECK AND A DRIER EVENING AIRMASS
SUGGESTS MUCH LESS FOG POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY AFTER A DAY
THAT SHOULD BE FREE FROM RAIN.  EXPECT SOME INCREASING MID AND UPPER
LEVEL CLOUDINESS FROM UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE LATE...WITH A PARTLY CLOUDY
NIGHT ON TAP THROUGHOUT THE REGION.  WITH THE DRIER LLEVEL
AIRMASS...A COOLER NIGHT LOOKS TO BE IN STORE...WITH LOWS RANGING
FROM THE MID 50S NORTH TO THE LOWER 60S COASTAL AREAS AND SOUTHERN
NEW HAMPSHIRE.

SATURDAY: ROBUST SHORTWAVE ROTATES INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY WITH
ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS OVERSPREADING THE REGION.  THIS QG
FORCING WILL BE WORKING WITH MODESTLY INCREASED MOISTURE AS COMPARED
TO FRIDAY AS PWATS MOVE BACK TO AROUND ONE INCH /RIGHT AROUND NORMAL
FOR THE FIRST DAY OF AUGUST/. LOW AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
DECENT...ASSISTED BY MID LEVEL COOL POOL TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION.
THUS...FULLY EXPECT SHOWERS TO EXPAND ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
MORNING AS DAYTIME HEATING LEADS TO GROWING LLEVEL INSTABILITY.
AS FOR THE THUNDER THREAT...INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL AS SURFACE
DEWPOINTS STRUGGLE BACK TO THE 60 DEGREE MARK. IN ADDITION...THERE
IS PLENTY OF DRY AIR ALOFT...WHICH...WHEN COMBINED WITH STOUT DEEP
SHEAR /0-6KM BULK SHEAR 40-50 KTS/ COULD POTENTIALLY PORTEND A
HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT DUE TO ENTRAINMENT. THAT SAID...WITH ENOUGH
INSTABILITY...ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WOULD HAVE ACCESS TO AMPLE
SHEAR AND LOWER FREEZING LEVELS THAN OF LATE...AND THUS A
CONDITIONAL SEVERE THREAT. BEST MOISTURE RESIDES FURTHER
NORTH...WHICH AGREES WELL WITH SPC/S INTRODUCTION OF A MARGINAL
RISK OVER COOS COUNTY NH AND MUCH OF NORTHERN MAINE. WILL
INTRODUCE MENTION OF THIS POTENTIAL IN THE MORNING HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE A TAD COOLER THAN ON
FRIDAY...PARTICULARLY FURTHER NORTH WHERE THE GREATEST CLOUD COVER
AND PRECIPITATION COVERAGE IS EXPECTED. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
RANGE FROM THE 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS THE LOWER/MIDDLE 80S OVER
SOUTHWEST MAINE AND SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
500 MB CONTINUES TO TEND BACK TOWARD A MORE +PNA
PATTERN...ALTHOUGH SKEWING MORE TOWARDS AN OMEGA BLOCK BY MID TO
LATE WEEK WITH TROUGHING FIRMLY ENSCONCED OVER JAMES BAY AND NRN
QUEBEC. THIS TREND WILL LEAD TO AN UNSETTLED PATTERN THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH THE THREAT FOR SHRA/TSRA...HIGHEST IN THE NORTHERN
ZONES. HOWEVER...FAST FLOW WILL KEEP THINGS MOVING AND PREVENT
ANY SIGNIFICANT RAIN EVENTS.

SUNDAY WILL SEE PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND CHANCE FOR SHRA/TSRA IN THE
MTNS. MON AFTERNOON INTO TUE LOOK LIKE THE BEST CHC FOR CWA WIDE
SHRA/TSRA AS TROUGHING SAGS S...AND PULLS A COLD FRONT THROUGH NRN
NEW ENGLAND. WED /THU WILL KEEP US ON THE COOLER SIDE OF THE
FRONT...AS IT STALLS ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC. SOME MTNS SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE AS UPPR LVL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD POOL WILL
BE JUST TO THE N OF THE CWA.

TEMPERATURE WILL SUNDAY WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
70S TO MID 80...BUT WILL CLIMB BACK ABOVE NORMAL ON MONDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE 80S...AND APPROACHING 90 AGAIN IN INTERIOR SRN NH.
OVERNIGHT LOWS SAT AND SUN NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO
MID 60S...AND MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE MORE MUGGY WITH LOWS IN THE 60S
TO AROUND 70. TEMPS MAY FALL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL BY MID TO
LATE WEEK. STAYED CLOSER TO THE EURO THOUGH AS THE GFS IS PROBABLY
OVERDOING THE COOL AIR INCURSION LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE THE COMING TAF
PERIOD. EXPECT FEW/SCT CU TO DEVELOP DURING THE DAY TODAY...WITH A
TRANSITION TO MORE MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE.

ONLY THREAT FOR RESTRICTIONS THROUGH DAYBREAK SATURDAY WILL BE IN
THE FORM ON FOG TONIGHT AT LEB/HIE.  FOG WILL BE LESS WIDESPREAD AND
DENSE THAN IT WAS THIS MORNING GIVEN DRIER LLEVEL AIRMASS...MODERATE
WINDS ALOFT...AND NO RAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.  THUS...WILL
ONLY CARRY SOME MVFR RESTRICTIONS IN THE HOURS LEADING TO DAYBREAK
AT THESE SITES.

WINDS: WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10G18KTS FOR THE DAY TODAY
BEFORE DIMINISHING TO 5KTS OR LESS TONIGHT.

A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY...PARTICULARLY FOR OUR NORTHERN NH
TERMINALS.  BRIEF MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN ANY OF THESE
SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH CONDITIONS REMAINING VFR ELSEWHERE.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR SAT NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY... WITH VLY FOG
POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT. SCT SHRA/TSRA WILL IMPACT MOST OF THE
TERMINALS LATE MON AND MON NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...WINDS/WAVES LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT LEVELS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD UNDER
GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS.

LONG TERM....PERSISTENT SW FLOW SUNDAY AND MONDAY COULD BRING
SWELL TO 5 FT OR SO BY SUNDAY NIGHT....WHICH WOULD LINGER THROUGH
MON NIGHT.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
ES




000
FXUS61 KGYX 311331
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
931 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TODAY...PROVIDING A DAY
WITH VERY LITTLE CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS FOR A CHANGE.
IT WILL STILL BE WARM TODAY...BUT NOTICEABLY LESS HUMID THAN
PREVIOUS DAYS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY...BRINGING
ANOTHER THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BEHIND THIS FRONT WE
WILL SEE ANOTHER DROP IN TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY. WEAK LOW
PRESSURE ALOFT...SITUATED OVER QUEBEC...WILL BRING A THREAT FOR
SHOWERS OR STORMS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. COOLER AIR MOVES FOR THE
MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...

925 AM...QUIET DAY ON TAP WITH WESTERLY FLOW ALLOWING EVEN THE
COAST TO WARM WELL INTO THE 80S TODAY. ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS FOR
THIS ESTF UPDATE TO REFLECT THE 13Z MESONET IN 1ST PERIOD GRIDS.

PREV DISC...
UPDATE: LOWERED SKY COVER SOMEWHAT AND ALLOWED PATCHY FOG TO
CONTINUE THROUGH 12Z BASED ON EARLY MORNING OBSERVATIONS.
OTHERWISE...NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED TO THE GOING FORECAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: PATCHY DENSE FOG THROUGH EARLY
MORNING...THEN NIL.

CURRENT PATTERN: HUDSON BAY LOW HAS BECOME RE-ESTABLISHED AS OF THIS
WRITING AS POTENT SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW HAVE BECOME
VERTICALLY-STACKED AND STATIONARY IN THIS REGION. SOUTH OF THIS
FEATURE A COLD FRONT IS DRAPED FROM QUEBEC SOUTHWEST ALONG THE EAST
COAST OF THE UNITED STATES.  BEHIND THIS FEATURE...EARLY MORNING
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS SUBSTANTIAL MIDLEVEL DRYING IS TAKING
PLACE...WITH LLEVEL DRYING OCCURRING JUST A TAD SLOWER IN A BROAD
SUBSIDENT REGIME.  LOOKING UPSTREAM...ADDITIONAL LOW-MID LEVEL
MOISTURE CAN BE SEEN ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE OVER THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES PINWHEELING EAST. IN THE POST-FRONTAL
AIRMASS...A GENERALLY QUIET DAY IS EXPECTED TODAY...WITH FORECAST
CONCERNS CENTERED AROUND THE AFOREMENTIONED UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE AND
IT/S IMPLICATIONS FOR CLOUD/SHOWER POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON.

FOG: A HANDFUL OF LOCATIONS HAVE SEEN VSBYS DROP BELOW A MILE EARLY
THIS MORNING.  EXPECT VSBYS TO IMPROVE TOWARDS DAYBREAK AS LLEVEL
DRY ADVECTION CONTINUES...WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING THROUGH THE 60S AND
INTO THE UPPER 50S.

CLOUDS/PRECIP: MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE NOW CROSSING FROM ONTARIO INTO
WESTERN QUEBEC WILL RACE RAPIDLY EAST-NORTHEAST TODAY WITH AN UPTICK
IN QG FORCING FOR ASCENT SPREADING ACROSS NORTHERN NH AND NW MAINE
EARLY...BUT THEN CONTINUING EAST WITH OUR REGION IN ANTICYCLONIC
DPVA FOR THE AFTERNOON. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A NON-ZERO BUILDUP OF
CAPE DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH THE RELATIVELY COOL TEMPERATURES
ALOFT... HOWEVER...SUBSTANTIAL CAPPING WILL BE IN PLACE IN THE
H6-7 LAYER. THUS...HAVE A HARD TIME SEEING MUCH IF ANY SHRA
ACTIVITY DEVELOPING...WITH PERHAPS A SPRINKLE IN THE MOUNTAINS
DURING THE AFTERNOON. A MUCH BETTER BET IS SOME INCREASE IN
CLOUDINESS BY AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE LOWER DEWPOINTS...IT WILL BE
VERY PLEASANT DAY TO END JULY.

TEMPERATURES: H8 TEMPS ARE SLOWLY DROPPING IN THE POST-FRONTAL
AIRMASS...BUT WILL REMAIN IN THE MID TEENS...SUPPORTING HIGHS WELL
INTO THE 80S PARTICULARLY IN THE DOWNSLOPE REGIMES...WITH LESS
IMPACTS FROM ANY SEA-BREEZES GIVEN DECENT WESTERLY GRADIENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: THREAT FOR AN ISOLATED SEVERE
STORM PARTICULARLY NORTHERN AREAS ON SATURDAY.

PATTERN/IMPLICATIONS: CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE PATTERN
THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE COLUMN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD
WITH ONE PRIMARY DISTURBANCE IN THIS CYCLONIC FLOW PUSHING INTO THE
AREA ON SATURDAY.  FORECAST CHALLENGES PRIMARILY CENTER ON THIS
FEATURE...AND IT/S ABILITY TO BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
REGION.

FRIDAY NIGHT:  GOOD FLOW OFF THE DECK AND A DRIER EVENING AIRMASS
SUGGESTS MUCH LESS FOG POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY AFTER A DAY
THAT SHOULD BE FREE FROM RAIN.  EXPECT SOME INCREASING MID AND UPPER
LEVEL CLOUDINESS FROM UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE LATE...WITH A PARTLY CLOUDY
NIGHT ON TAP THROUGHOUT THE REGION.  WITH THE DRIER LLEVEL
AIRMASS...A COOLER NIGHT LOOKS TO BE IN STORE...WITH LOWS RANGING
FROM THE MID 50S NORTH TO THE LOWER 60S COASTAL AREAS AND SOUTHERN
NEW HAMPSHIRE.

SATURDAY: ROBUST SHORTWAVE ROTATES INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY WITH
ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS OVERSPREADING THE REGION.  THIS QG
FORCING WILL BE WORKING WITH MODESTLY INCREASED MOISTURE AS COMPARED
TO FRIDAY AS PWATS MOVE BACK TO AROUND ONE INCH /RIGHT AROUND NORMAL
FOR THE FIRST DAY OF AUGUST/. LOW AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
DECENT...ASSISTED BY MID LEVEL COOL POOL TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION.
THUS...FULLY EXPECT SHOWERS TO EXPAND ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
MORNING AS DAYTIME HEATING LEADS TO GROWING LLEVEL INSTABILITY.
AS FOR THE THUNDER THREAT...INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL AS SURFACE
DEWPOINTS STRUGGLE BACK TO THE 60 DEGREE MARK. IN ADDITION...THERE
IS PLENTY OF DRY AIR ALOFT...WHICH...WHEN COMBINED WITH STOUT DEEP
SHEAR /0-6KM BULK SHEAR 40-50 KTS/ COULD POTENTIALLY PORTEND A
HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT DUE TO ENTRAINMENT. THAT SAID...WITH ENOUGH
INSTABILITY...ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WOULD HAVE ACCESS TO AMPLE
SHEAR AND LOWER FREEZING LEVELS THAN OF LATE...AND THUS A
CONDITIONAL SEVERE THREAT. BEST MOISTURE RESIDES FURTHER
NORTH...WHICH AGREES WELL WITH SPC/S INTRODUCTION OF A MARGINAL
RISK OVER COOS COUNTY NH AND MUCH OF NORTHERN MAINE. WILL
INTRODUCE MENTION OF THIS POTENTIAL IN THE MORNING HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE A TAD COOLER THAN ON
FRIDAY...PARTICULARLY FURTHER NORTH WHERE THE GREATEST CLOUD COVER
AND PRECIPITATION COVERAGE IS EXPECTED. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
RANGE FROM THE 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS THE LOWER/MIDDLE 80S OVER
SOUTHWEST MAINE AND SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
500 MB CONTINUES TO TEND BACK TOWARD A MORE +PNA
PATTERN...ALTHOUGH SKEWING MORE TOWARDS AN OMEGA BLOCK BY MID TO
LATE WEEK WITH TROUGHING FIRMLY ENSCONCED OVER JAMES BAY AND NRN
QUEBEC. THIS TREND WILL LEAD TO AN UNSETTLED PATTERN THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH THE THREAT FOR SHRA/TSRA...HIGHEST IN THE NORTHERN
ZONES. HOWEVER...FAST FLOW WILL KEEP THINGS MOVING AND PREVENT
ANY SIGNIFICANT RAIN EVENTS.

SUNDAY WILL SEE PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND CHANCE FOR SHRA/TSRA IN THE
MTNS. MON AFTERNOON INTO TUE LOOK LIKE THE BEST CHC FOR CWA WIDE
SHRA/TSRA AS TROUGHING SAGS S...AND PULLS A COLD FRONT THROUGH NRN
NEW ENGLAND. WED /THU WILL KEEP US ON THE COOLER SIDE OF THE
FRONT...AS IT STALLS ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC. SOME MTNS SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE AS UPPR LVL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD POOL WILL
BE JUST TO THE N OF THE CWA.

TEMPERATURE WILL SUNDAY WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
70S TO MID 80...BUT WILL CLIMB BACK ABOVE NORMAL ON MONDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE 80S...AND APPROACHING 90 AGAIN IN INTERIOR SRN NH.
OVERNIGHT LOWS SAT AND SUN NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO
MID 60S...AND MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE MORE MUGGY WITH LOWS IN THE 60S
TO AROUND 70. TEMPS MAY FALL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL BY MID TO
LATE WEEK. STAYED CLOSER TO THE EURO THOUGH AS THE GFS IS PROBABLY
OVERDOING THE COOL AIR INCURSION LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE THE COMING TAF
PERIOD. EXPECT FEW/SCT CU TO DEVELOP DURING THE DAY TODAY...WITH A
TRANSITION TO MORE MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE.

ONLY THREAT FOR RESTRICTIONS THROUGH DAYBREAK SATURDAY WILL BE IN
THE FORM ON FOG TONIGHT AT LEB/HIE.  FOG WILL BE LESS WIDESPREAD AND
DENSE THAN IT WAS THIS MORNING GIVEN DRIER LLEVEL AIRMASS...MODERATE
WINDS ALOFT...AND NO RAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.  THUS...WILL
ONLY CARRY SOME MVFR RESTRICTIONS IN THE HOURS LEADING TO DAYBREAK
AT THESE SITES.

WINDS: WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10G18KTS FOR THE DAY TODAY
BEFORE DIMINISHING TO 5KTS OR LESS TONIGHT.

A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY...PARTICULARLY FOR OUR NORTHERN NH
TERMINALS.  BRIEF MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN ANY OF THESE
SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH CONDITIONS REMAINING VFR ELSEWHERE.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR SAT NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY... WITH VLY FOG
POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT. SCT SHRA/TSRA WILL IMPACT MOST OF THE
TERMINALS LATE MON AND MON NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...WINDS/WAVES LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT LEVELS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD UNDER
GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS.

LONG TERM....PERSISTENT SW FLOW SUNDAY AND MONDAY COULD BRING
SWELL TO 5 FT OR SO BY SUNDAY NIGHT....WHICH WOULD LINGER THROUGH
MON NIGHT.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
ES



000
FXUS61 KGYX 311331
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
931 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TODAY...PROVIDING A DAY
WITH VERY LITTLE CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS FOR A CHANGE.
IT WILL STILL BE WARM TODAY...BUT NOTICEABLY LESS HUMID THAN
PREVIOUS DAYS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY...BRINGING
ANOTHER THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BEHIND THIS FRONT WE
WILL SEE ANOTHER DROP IN TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY. WEAK LOW
PRESSURE ALOFT...SITUATED OVER QUEBEC...WILL BRING A THREAT FOR
SHOWERS OR STORMS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. COOLER AIR MOVES FOR THE
MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...

925 AM...QUIET DAY ON TAP WITH WESTERLY FLOW ALLOWING EVEN THE
COAST TO WARM WELL INTO THE 80S TODAY. ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS FOR
THIS ESTF UPDATE TO REFLECT THE 13Z MESONET IN 1ST PERIOD GRIDS.

PREV DISC...
UPDATE: LOWERED SKY COVER SOMEWHAT AND ALLOWED PATCHY FOG TO
CONTINUE THROUGH 12Z BASED ON EARLY MORNING OBSERVATIONS.
OTHERWISE...NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED TO THE GOING FORECAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: PATCHY DENSE FOG THROUGH EARLY
MORNING...THEN NIL.

CURRENT PATTERN: HUDSON BAY LOW HAS BECOME RE-ESTABLISHED AS OF THIS
WRITING AS POTENT SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW HAVE BECOME
VERTICALLY-STACKED AND STATIONARY IN THIS REGION. SOUTH OF THIS
FEATURE A COLD FRONT IS DRAPED FROM QUEBEC SOUTHWEST ALONG THE EAST
COAST OF THE UNITED STATES.  BEHIND THIS FEATURE...EARLY MORNING
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS SUBSTANTIAL MIDLEVEL DRYING IS TAKING
PLACE...WITH LLEVEL DRYING OCCURRING JUST A TAD SLOWER IN A BROAD
SUBSIDENT REGIME.  LOOKING UPSTREAM...ADDITIONAL LOW-MID LEVEL
MOISTURE CAN BE SEEN ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE OVER THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES PINWHEELING EAST. IN THE POST-FRONTAL
AIRMASS...A GENERALLY QUIET DAY IS EXPECTED TODAY...WITH FORECAST
CONCERNS CENTERED AROUND THE AFOREMENTIONED UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE AND
IT/S IMPLICATIONS FOR CLOUD/SHOWER POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON.

FOG: A HANDFUL OF LOCATIONS HAVE SEEN VSBYS DROP BELOW A MILE EARLY
THIS MORNING.  EXPECT VSBYS TO IMPROVE TOWARDS DAYBREAK AS LLEVEL
DRY ADVECTION CONTINUES...WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING THROUGH THE 60S AND
INTO THE UPPER 50S.

CLOUDS/PRECIP: MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE NOW CROSSING FROM ONTARIO INTO
WESTERN QUEBEC WILL RACE RAPIDLY EAST-NORTHEAST TODAY WITH AN UPTICK
IN QG FORCING FOR ASCENT SPREADING ACROSS NORTHERN NH AND NW MAINE
EARLY...BUT THEN CONTINUING EAST WITH OUR REGION IN ANTICYCLONIC
DPVA FOR THE AFTERNOON. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A NON-ZERO BUILDUP OF
CAPE DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH THE RELATIVELY COOL TEMPERATURES
ALOFT... HOWEVER...SUBSTANTIAL CAPPING WILL BE IN PLACE IN THE
H6-7 LAYER. THUS...HAVE A HARD TIME SEEING MUCH IF ANY SHRA
ACTIVITY DEVELOPING...WITH PERHAPS A SPRINKLE IN THE MOUNTAINS
DURING THE AFTERNOON. A MUCH BETTER BET IS SOME INCREASE IN
CLOUDINESS BY AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE LOWER DEWPOINTS...IT WILL BE
VERY PLEASANT DAY TO END JULY.

TEMPERATURES: H8 TEMPS ARE SLOWLY DROPPING IN THE POST-FRONTAL
AIRMASS...BUT WILL REMAIN IN THE MID TEENS...SUPPORTING HIGHS WELL
INTO THE 80S PARTICULARLY IN THE DOWNSLOPE REGIMES...WITH LESS
IMPACTS FROM ANY SEA-BREEZES GIVEN DECENT WESTERLY GRADIENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: THREAT FOR AN ISOLATED SEVERE
STORM PARTICULARLY NORTHERN AREAS ON SATURDAY.

PATTERN/IMPLICATIONS: CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE PATTERN
THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE COLUMN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD
WITH ONE PRIMARY DISTURBANCE IN THIS CYCLONIC FLOW PUSHING INTO THE
AREA ON SATURDAY.  FORECAST CHALLENGES PRIMARILY CENTER ON THIS
FEATURE...AND IT/S ABILITY TO BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
REGION.

FRIDAY NIGHT:  GOOD FLOW OFF THE DECK AND A DRIER EVENING AIRMASS
SUGGESTS MUCH LESS FOG POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY AFTER A DAY
THAT SHOULD BE FREE FROM RAIN.  EXPECT SOME INCREASING MID AND UPPER
LEVEL CLOUDINESS FROM UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE LATE...WITH A PARTLY CLOUDY
NIGHT ON TAP THROUGHOUT THE REGION.  WITH THE DRIER LLEVEL
AIRMASS...A COOLER NIGHT LOOKS TO BE IN STORE...WITH LOWS RANGING
FROM THE MID 50S NORTH TO THE LOWER 60S COASTAL AREAS AND SOUTHERN
NEW HAMPSHIRE.

SATURDAY: ROBUST SHORTWAVE ROTATES INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY WITH
ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS OVERSPREADING THE REGION.  THIS QG
FORCING WILL BE WORKING WITH MODESTLY INCREASED MOISTURE AS COMPARED
TO FRIDAY AS PWATS MOVE BACK TO AROUND ONE INCH /RIGHT AROUND NORMAL
FOR THE FIRST DAY OF AUGUST/. LOW AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
DECENT...ASSISTED BY MID LEVEL COOL POOL TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION.
THUS...FULLY EXPECT SHOWERS TO EXPAND ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
MORNING AS DAYTIME HEATING LEADS TO GROWING LLEVEL INSTABILITY.
AS FOR THE THUNDER THREAT...INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL AS SURFACE
DEWPOINTS STRUGGLE BACK TO THE 60 DEGREE MARK. IN ADDITION...THERE
IS PLENTY OF DRY AIR ALOFT...WHICH...WHEN COMBINED WITH STOUT DEEP
SHEAR /0-6KM BULK SHEAR 40-50 KTS/ COULD POTENTIALLY PORTEND A
HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT DUE TO ENTRAINMENT. THAT SAID...WITH ENOUGH
INSTABILITY...ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WOULD HAVE ACCESS TO AMPLE
SHEAR AND LOWER FREEZING LEVELS THAN OF LATE...AND THUS A
CONDITIONAL SEVERE THREAT. BEST MOISTURE RESIDES FURTHER
NORTH...WHICH AGREES WELL WITH SPC/S INTRODUCTION OF A MARGINAL
RISK OVER COOS COUNTY NH AND MUCH OF NORTHERN MAINE. WILL
INTRODUCE MENTION OF THIS POTENTIAL IN THE MORNING HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE A TAD COOLER THAN ON
FRIDAY...PARTICULARLY FURTHER NORTH WHERE THE GREATEST CLOUD COVER
AND PRECIPITATION COVERAGE IS EXPECTED. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
RANGE FROM THE 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS THE LOWER/MIDDLE 80S OVER
SOUTHWEST MAINE AND SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
500 MB CONTINUES TO TEND BACK TOWARD A MORE +PNA
PATTERN...ALTHOUGH SKEWING MORE TOWARDS AN OMEGA BLOCK BY MID TO
LATE WEEK WITH TROUGHING FIRMLY ENSCONCED OVER JAMES BAY AND NRN
QUEBEC. THIS TREND WILL LEAD TO AN UNSETTLED PATTERN THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH THE THREAT FOR SHRA/TSRA...HIGHEST IN THE NORTHERN
ZONES. HOWEVER...FAST FLOW WILL KEEP THINGS MOVING AND PREVENT
ANY SIGNIFICANT RAIN EVENTS.

SUNDAY WILL SEE PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND CHANCE FOR SHRA/TSRA IN THE
MTNS. MON AFTERNOON INTO TUE LOOK LIKE THE BEST CHC FOR CWA WIDE
SHRA/TSRA AS TROUGHING SAGS S...AND PULLS A COLD FRONT THROUGH NRN
NEW ENGLAND. WED /THU WILL KEEP US ON THE COOLER SIDE OF THE
FRONT...AS IT STALLS ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC. SOME MTNS SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE AS UPPR LVL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD POOL WILL
BE JUST TO THE N OF THE CWA.

TEMPERATURE WILL SUNDAY WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
70S TO MID 80...BUT WILL CLIMB BACK ABOVE NORMAL ON MONDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE 80S...AND APPROACHING 90 AGAIN IN INTERIOR SRN NH.
OVERNIGHT LOWS SAT AND SUN NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO
MID 60S...AND MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE MORE MUGGY WITH LOWS IN THE 60S
TO AROUND 70. TEMPS MAY FALL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL BY MID TO
LATE WEEK. STAYED CLOSER TO THE EURO THOUGH AS THE GFS IS PROBABLY
OVERDOING THE COOL AIR INCURSION LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE THE COMING TAF
PERIOD. EXPECT FEW/SCT CU TO DEVELOP DURING THE DAY TODAY...WITH A
TRANSITION TO MORE MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE.

ONLY THREAT FOR RESTRICTIONS THROUGH DAYBREAK SATURDAY WILL BE IN
THE FORM ON FOG TONIGHT AT LEB/HIE.  FOG WILL BE LESS WIDESPREAD AND
DENSE THAN IT WAS THIS MORNING GIVEN DRIER LLEVEL AIRMASS...MODERATE
WINDS ALOFT...AND NO RAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.  THUS...WILL
ONLY CARRY SOME MVFR RESTRICTIONS IN THE HOURS LEADING TO DAYBREAK
AT THESE SITES.

WINDS: WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10G18KTS FOR THE DAY TODAY
BEFORE DIMINISHING TO 5KTS OR LESS TONIGHT.

A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY...PARTICULARLY FOR OUR NORTHERN NH
TERMINALS.  BRIEF MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN ANY OF THESE
SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH CONDITIONS REMAINING VFR ELSEWHERE.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR SAT NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY... WITH VLY FOG
POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT. SCT SHRA/TSRA WILL IMPACT MOST OF THE
TERMINALS LATE MON AND MON NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...WINDS/WAVES LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT LEVELS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD UNDER
GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS.

LONG TERM....PERSISTENT SW FLOW SUNDAY AND MONDAY COULD BRING
SWELL TO 5 FT OR SO BY SUNDAY NIGHT....WHICH WOULD LINGER THROUGH
MON NIGHT.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
ES




000
FXUS61 KCAR 311045
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
645 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS NORTHERN MAINE TODAY FOLLOWED BY
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TONIGHT. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
630 AM UPDATE...THE FOG IS STARTING TO BURN OFF AND LIFT W/THE
HELP OF THE SUN. TEMPERATURES HAD COOLED DOWN SOME ESPECIALLY BACK
TO THE NW AND W WHERE READINGS WERE DOWN IN THE UPPER 50S AND
LOWER 60S IN SOME LOCATIONS. ADJUSTED THE HRLY TEMPS/DEWPOINTS TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE CURRENT CONDITION.

AFTER TEH FOG THIS MORNING, THE CHALLENGE WILL BE THE CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS MOVED TO THE E W/FOG AND LOW CLOUDS IN
ITS WAKE. SOME WEAK SURFACE RIDGING WAS TAKING PLACE PER THE 06Z
ANALYSIS ALLOWING FROM PARTIAL CLEARING ABOVE THE LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG THAT WAS IN PLACE ATTM. THE CWA SHOULD SEE SUNSHINE AFTER
12Z(8AM)AND THE FOG BURNS OFF. IT WILL REMAIN QUITE HUMID TODAY
W/DAYTIME TEMPERATURES PUSHING THROUGH THE 70S AND LOWER 80S FOR
THE NORTHERN 1/2 WHILE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS SHOULD SEE MID
80S. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE W/ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROF WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS ENOUGH MID LEVEL
FORCING TO KICK OFF SOME SHOWERS AND W/THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZING.
SB CAPES ARE FORECAST TO HIT 800-1200 JOULES W/LIS DROPPING TO -2.
SHEAR IS THERE AT THE 0-6KM LAYER(25KTS). THIS WOULD BE ENOUGH TO
ALLOW FOR TSTMS TO DEVELOP. THE LACKING FEATURES TO PREVENT
ORGANIZED CELLS IS THAT MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE LIMITED TO ABOUT
800MBS AND 850-500MB LAPSE RATES LOOK MARGINAL(6.0C/KM).
THEREFORE, DECIDED TO GO W/ISOLATED TSTMS AND CONFINED THIS TO THE
NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS WHERE BEST INSTABILITY AND FORCING
RESIDE.

FOR TONIGHT, WEAK HIGH PRES LOOKS TO RIDGE ACROSS THE CWA PROVIDING
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. OVERNIGHT LOWS EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60. CONCERNED ABOUT SOME SHALLOW
FOG, BUT W/A LIGHT WEST WIND FORECAST DECIDED AGAINST IT ATTM.
THE DAYCREW CAN ASSESS THIS FURTHER TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THIS PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH A LARGE SCALE UPPER TROF CENTERED
ACROSS THE HUDSON BAY REGION. A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES
WILL TRAVERSE NORTHERN MAINE WITHIN THE MEAN FLOW BOTH WEEKEND
DAYS, SETTING THE STAGE FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

THE QUESTION IS WHETHER OR NOT ANY STORMS ON SATURDAY HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO REACH SEVERE LIMITS. THE SHEAR AT 0-6 KM IS THERE
AND IS SHOWN TO BE IN THE RANGE OF 35-45 KTS. H5-H7 LAPSE RATES
ARE ALSO FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE AROUND 6.5-7.0 C/KM, WITH FREEZING
LEVELS EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 10 KFT. LIMITING FACTOR MAY BE AMOUNT
OF DRY AIR ALOFT AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY WITH CAPES ONLY AROUND
500-900 J/KG. THAT BEING SAID, IF STORMS DEVELOP THEY COULD TAP
IN TO STRONGER WINDS ALOFT, AND WITH AFOREMENTIONED FREEZING
LEVELS THINK HAIL WOULD ALSO BE POSSIBLE. CONSIDERING THESE
FACTORS, DECISION WAS MADE TO INCLUDE ENHANCED WORDING FOR GUSTY
WINDS AND SMALL HAIL ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS FOR
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ALSO NOTED THE NEW DAY TWO OUTLOOK FROM SPC
THAT HAS MOST OF OUR REGION IN MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE.

ANY ONGOING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD QUICKLY DIMINISH
EARLY SATURDAY EVENING AS THE UPPER IMPULSE MOVES EAST AND WE LOSE
THE HEATING. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
LATER SATURDAY NIGHT. SOME PATCHY FOG COULDN`T BE RULED OUT
OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO NEAR 60 DEGREES.

SUNDAY SHOULD SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH TEMPERATURES BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE
IN THE MID 70S NORTH AND UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 DOWN EAST, ALTHOUGH
IT WILL BE A BIT COOLER ON THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE LONG TERM. A
500 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR HUDSON BAY AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD WILL MIGRATE EASTWARD BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. WILL HAVE
TO KEEP THE MENTION OF THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THROUGH MOST OF THE
PERIOD. COULDN`T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM
EITHER BUT WILL NOT MENTION ATTM. TEMPERATURES AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD WILL BE NEAR NORMAL AND THEN FALL TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS BY
MID TO LATE WEEK AS COOLER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROF
SETTLES ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE ATTM W/SOME FOG AND LOW
CLOUDS. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO VFR BY MID MORNING
AS DRIER WORKS ACROSS THE TERMINALS. VFR LOOKS TO BE A GOOD BET
THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: AVIATORS CAN EXPECT THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH WE ARE EXPECTING
VFR TO PREVAIL MOST OF THE DAYTIME HOURS, THERE COULD BE PERIODS OF
MVFR IN ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY IN SCATTERED AFTERNOON
SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: FOG COULD HAMPER NAVIGATION THIS MORNING. DRIER AIR
WORKING ACROSS THE WATERS WILL ALLOW FOR VSBYS TO IMPROVE. WINDS
WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SW 10 TO 15 KTS. EXPECT SEAS TO RUN 3 TO
4 FT AWAY FROM THE INTRA-COASTAL ZONE.

SHORT TERM: WIND/SEAS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HEWITT
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...HEWITT/DUDA
MARINE...HEWITT/DUDA



000
FXUS61 KCAR 311045
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
645 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS NORTHERN MAINE TODAY FOLLOWED BY
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TONIGHT. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
630 AM UPDATE...THE FOG IS STARTING TO BURN OFF AND LIFT W/THE
HELP OF THE SUN. TEMPERATURES HAD COOLED DOWN SOME ESPECIALLY BACK
TO THE NW AND W WHERE READINGS WERE DOWN IN THE UPPER 50S AND
LOWER 60S IN SOME LOCATIONS. ADJUSTED THE HRLY TEMPS/DEWPOINTS TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE CURRENT CONDITION.

AFTER TEH FOG THIS MORNING, THE CHALLENGE WILL BE THE CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS MOVED TO THE E W/FOG AND LOW CLOUDS IN
ITS WAKE. SOME WEAK SURFACE RIDGING WAS TAKING PLACE PER THE 06Z
ANALYSIS ALLOWING FROM PARTIAL CLEARING ABOVE THE LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG THAT WAS IN PLACE ATTM. THE CWA SHOULD SEE SUNSHINE AFTER
12Z(8AM)AND THE FOG BURNS OFF. IT WILL REMAIN QUITE HUMID TODAY
W/DAYTIME TEMPERATURES PUSHING THROUGH THE 70S AND LOWER 80S FOR
THE NORTHERN 1/2 WHILE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS SHOULD SEE MID
80S. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE W/ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROF WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS ENOUGH MID LEVEL
FORCING TO KICK OFF SOME SHOWERS AND W/THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZING.
SB CAPES ARE FORECAST TO HIT 800-1200 JOULES W/LIS DROPPING TO -2.
SHEAR IS THERE AT THE 0-6KM LAYER(25KTS). THIS WOULD BE ENOUGH TO
ALLOW FOR TSTMS TO DEVELOP. THE LACKING FEATURES TO PREVENT
ORGANIZED CELLS IS THAT MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE LIMITED TO ABOUT
800MBS AND 850-500MB LAPSE RATES LOOK MARGINAL(6.0C/KM).
THEREFORE, DECIDED TO GO W/ISOLATED TSTMS AND CONFINED THIS TO THE
NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS WHERE BEST INSTABILITY AND FORCING
RESIDE.

FOR TONIGHT, WEAK HIGH PRES LOOKS TO RIDGE ACROSS THE CWA PROVIDING
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. OVERNIGHT LOWS EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60. CONCERNED ABOUT SOME SHALLOW
FOG, BUT W/A LIGHT WEST WIND FORECAST DECIDED AGAINST IT ATTM.
THE DAYCREW CAN ASSESS THIS FURTHER TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THIS PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH A LARGE SCALE UPPER TROF CENTERED
ACROSS THE HUDSON BAY REGION. A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES
WILL TRAVERSE NORTHERN MAINE WITHIN THE MEAN FLOW BOTH WEEKEND
DAYS, SETTING THE STAGE FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

THE QUESTION IS WHETHER OR NOT ANY STORMS ON SATURDAY HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO REACH SEVERE LIMITS. THE SHEAR AT 0-6 KM IS THERE
AND IS SHOWN TO BE IN THE RANGE OF 35-45 KTS. H5-H7 LAPSE RATES
ARE ALSO FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE AROUND 6.5-7.0 C/KM, WITH FREEZING
LEVELS EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 10 KFT. LIMITING FACTOR MAY BE AMOUNT
OF DRY AIR ALOFT AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY WITH CAPES ONLY AROUND
500-900 J/KG. THAT BEING SAID, IF STORMS DEVELOP THEY COULD TAP
IN TO STRONGER WINDS ALOFT, AND WITH AFOREMENTIONED FREEZING
LEVELS THINK HAIL WOULD ALSO BE POSSIBLE. CONSIDERING THESE
FACTORS, DECISION WAS MADE TO INCLUDE ENHANCED WORDING FOR GUSTY
WINDS AND SMALL HAIL ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS FOR
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ALSO NOTED THE NEW DAY TWO OUTLOOK FROM SPC
THAT HAS MOST OF OUR REGION IN MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE.

ANY ONGOING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD QUICKLY DIMINISH
EARLY SATURDAY EVENING AS THE UPPER IMPULSE MOVES EAST AND WE LOSE
THE HEATING. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
LATER SATURDAY NIGHT. SOME PATCHY FOG COULDN`T BE RULED OUT
OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO NEAR 60 DEGREES.

SUNDAY SHOULD SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH TEMPERATURES BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE
IN THE MID 70S NORTH AND UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 DOWN EAST, ALTHOUGH
IT WILL BE A BIT COOLER ON THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE LONG TERM. A
500 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR HUDSON BAY AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD WILL MIGRATE EASTWARD BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. WILL HAVE
TO KEEP THE MENTION OF THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THROUGH MOST OF THE
PERIOD. COULDN`T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM
EITHER BUT WILL NOT MENTION ATTM. TEMPERATURES AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD WILL BE NEAR NORMAL AND THEN FALL TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS BY
MID TO LATE WEEK AS COOLER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROF
SETTLES ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE ATTM W/SOME FOG AND LOW
CLOUDS. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO VFR BY MID MORNING
AS DRIER WORKS ACROSS THE TERMINALS. VFR LOOKS TO BE A GOOD BET
THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: AVIATORS CAN EXPECT THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH WE ARE EXPECTING
VFR TO PREVAIL MOST OF THE DAYTIME HOURS, THERE COULD BE PERIODS OF
MVFR IN ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY IN SCATTERED AFTERNOON
SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: FOG COULD HAMPER NAVIGATION THIS MORNING. DRIER AIR
WORKING ACROSS THE WATERS WILL ALLOW FOR VSBYS TO IMPROVE. WINDS
WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SW 10 TO 15 KTS. EXPECT SEAS TO RUN 3 TO
4 FT AWAY FROM THE INTRA-COASTAL ZONE.

SHORT TERM: WIND/SEAS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HEWITT
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...HEWITT/DUDA
MARINE...HEWITT/DUDA




000
FXUS61 KGYX 311014 AAB
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
614 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TODAY...PROVIDING A DAY
WITH VERY LITTLE CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS FOR A CHANGE.
IT WILL STILL BE WARM TODAY...BUT NOTICEABLY LESS HUMID THAN
PREVIOUS DAYS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
BEHIND THIS FRONT WE WILL SEE ANOTHER DROP IN TEMPERATURES AND
HUMIDITY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE ALOFT...SITUATED OVER QUEBEC...WILL
BRING A THREAT FOR SHOWERS OR STORMS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. COOLER
AIR MOVES IN THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE: LOWERED SKY COVER SOMEWHAT AND ALLOWED PATCHY FOG TO
CONTINUE THROUGH 12Z BASED ON EARLY MORNING OBSERVATIONS.
OTHERWISE...NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED TO THE GOING FORECAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: PATCHY DENSE FOG THROUGH EARLY
MORNING...THEN NIL.

CURRENT PATTERN: HUDSON BAY LOW HAS BECOME RE-ESTABLISHED AS OF THIS
WRITING AS POTENT SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW HAVE BECOME
VERTICALLY-STACKED AND STATIONARY IN THIS REGION. SOUTH OF THIS
FEATURE A COLD FRONT IS DRAPED FROM QUEBEC SOUTHWEST ALONG THE EAST
COAST OF THE UNITED STATES.  BEHIND THIS FEATURE...EARLY MORNING
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS SUBSTANTIAL MIDLEVEL DRYING IS TAKING
PLACE...WITH LLEVEL DRYING OCCURRING JUST A TAD SLOWER IN A BROAD
SUBSIDENT REGIME.  LOOKING UPSTREAM...ADDITIONAL LOW-MID LEVEL
MOISTURE CAN BE SEEN ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE OVER THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES PINWHEELING EAST. IN THE POST-FRONTAL
AIRMASS...A GENERALLY QUIET DAY IS EXPECTED TODAY...WITH FORECAST
CONCERNS CENTERED AROUND THE AFOREMENTIONED UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE AND
IT/S IMPLICATIONS FOR CLOUD/SHOWER POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON.

FOG: A HANDFUL OF LOCATIONS HAVE SEEN VSBYS DROP BELOW A MILE EARLY
THIS MORNING.  EXPECT VSBYS TO IMPROVE TOWARDS DAYBREAK AS LLEVEL
DRY ADVECTION CONTINUES...WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING THROUGH THE 60S AND
INTO THE UPPER 50S.

CLOUDS/PRECIP: MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE NOW CROSSING FROM ONTARIO INTO
WESTERN QUEBEC WILL RACE RAPIDLY EAST-NORTHEAST TODAY WITH AN UPTICK
IN QG FORCING FOR ASCENT SPREADING ACROSS NORTHERN NH AND NW MAINE
EARLY...BUT THEN CONTINUING EAST WITH OUR REGION IN ANTICYCLONIC
DPVA FOR THE AFTERNOON. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A NON-ZERO BUILDUP OF
CAPE DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH THE RELATIVELY COOL TEMPERATURES
ALOFT... HOWEVER...SUBSTANTIAL CAPPING WILL BE IN PLACE IN THE
H6-7 LAYER. THUS...HAVE A HARD TIME SEEING MUCH IF ANY SHRA
ACTIVITY DEVELOPING...WITH PERHAPS A SPRINKLE IN THE MOUNTAINS
DURING THE AFTERNOON. A MUCH BETTER BET IS SOME INCREASE IN
CLOUDINESS BY AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE LOWER DEWPOINTS...IT WILL BE
VERY PLEASANT DAY TO END JULY.

TEMPERATURES: H8 TEMPS ARE SLOWLY DROPPING IN THE POST-FRONTAL
AIRMASS...BUT WILL REMAIN IN THE MID TEENS...SUPPORTING HIGHS WELL
INTO THE 80S PARTICULARLY IN THE DOWNSLOPE REGIMES...WITH LESS
IMPACTS FROM ANY SEA-BREEZES GIVEN DECENT WESTERLY GRADIENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: THREAT FOR AN ISOLATED SEVERE
STORM PARTICULARLY NORTHERN AREAS ON SATURDAY.

PATTERN/IMPLICATIONS: CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE PATTERN
THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE COLUMN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD
WITH ONE PRIMARY DISTURBANCE IN THIS CYCLONIC FLOW PUSHING INTO THE
AREA ON SATURDAY.  FORECAST CHALLENGES PRIMARILY CENTER ON THIS
FEATURE...AND IT/S ABILITY TO BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
REGION.

FRIDAY NIGHT:  GOOD FLOW OFF THE DECK AND A DRIER EVENING AIRMASS
SUGGESTS MUCH LESS FOG POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY AFTER A DAY
THAT SHOULD BE FREE FROM RAIN.  EXPECT SOME INCREASING MID AND UPPER
LEVEL CLOUDINESS FROM UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE LATE...WITH A PARTLY CLOUDY
NIGHT ON TAP THROUGHOUT THE REGION.  WITH THE DRIER LLEVEL
AIRMASS...A COOLER NIGHT LOOKS TO BE IN STORE...WITH LOWS RANGING
FROM THE MID 50S NORTH TO THE LOWER 60S COASTAL AREAS AND SOUTHERN
NEW HAMPSHIRE.

SATURDAY: ROBUST SHORTWAVE ROTATES INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY WITH
ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS OVERSPREADING THE REGION.  THIS QG
FORCING WILL BE WORKING WITH MODESTLY INCREASED MOISTURE AS COMPARED
TO FRIDAY AS PWATS MOVE BACK TO AROUND ONE INCH /RIGHT AROUND NORMAL
FOR THE FIRST DAY OF AUGUST/. LOW AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
DECENT...ASSISTED BY MID LEVEL COOL POOL TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION.
THUS...FULLY EXPECT SHOWERS TO EXPAND ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
MORNING AS DAYTIME HEATING LEADS TO GROWING LLEVEL INSTABILITY.
AS FOR THE THUNDER THREAT...INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL AS SURFACE
DEWPOINTS STRUGGLE BACK TO THE 60 DEGREE MARK. IN ADDITION...THERE
IS PLENTY OF DRY AIR ALOFT...WHICH...WHEN COMBINED WITH STOUT DEEP
SHEAR /0-6KM BULK SHEAR 40-50 KTS/ COULD POTENTIALLY PORTEND A
HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT DUE TO ENTRAINMENT. THAT SAID...WITH ENOUGH
INSTABILITY...ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WOULD HAVE ACCESS TO AMPLE
SHEAR AND LOWER FREEZING LEVELS THAN OF LATE...AND THUS A
CONDITIONAL SEVERE THREAT. BEST MOISTURE RESIDES FURTHER
NORTH...WHICH AGREES WELL WITH SPC/S INTRODUCTION OF A MARGINAL
RISK OVER COOS COUNTY NH AND MUCH OF NORTHERN MAINE. WILL
INTRODUCE MENTION OF THIS POTENTIAL IN THE MORNING HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE A TAD COOLER THAN ON
FRIDAY...PARTICULARLY FURTHER NORTH WHERE THE GREATEST CLOUD COVER
AND PRECIPITATION COVERAGE IS EXPECTED. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
RANGE FROM THE 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS THE LOWER/MIDDLE 80S OVER
SOUTHWEST MAINE AND SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
500 MB CONTINUES TO TEND BACK TOWARD A MORE +PNA
PATTERN...ALTHOUGH SKEWING MORE TOWARDS AN OMEGA BLOCK BY MID TO
LATE WEEK WITH TROUGHING FIRMLY ENSCONCED OVER JAMES BAY AND NRN
QUEBEC. THIS TREND WILL LEAD TO AN UNSETTLED PATTERN THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH THE THREAT FOR SHRA/TSRA...HIGHEST IN THE NORTHERN
ZONES. HOWEVER...FAST FLOW WILL KEEP THINGS MOVING AND PREVENT
ANY SIGNIFICANT RAIN EVENTS.

SUNDAY WILL SEE PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND CHANCE FOR SHRA/TSRA IN THE
MTNS. MON AFTERNOON INTO TUE LOOK LIKE THE BEST CHC FOR CWA WIDE
SHRA/TSRA AS TROUGHING SAGS S...AND PULLS A COLD FRONT THROUGH NRN
NEW ENGLAND. WED /THU WILL KEEP US ON THE COOLER SIDE OF THE
FRONT...AS IT STALLS ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC. SOME MTNS SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE AS UPPR LVL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD POOL WILL
BE JUST TO THE N OF THE CWA.

TEMPERATURE WILL SUNDAY WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
70S TO MID 80...BUT WILL CLIMB BACK ABOVE NORMAL ON MONDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE 80S...AND APPROACHING 90 AGAIN IN INTERIOR SRN NH.
OVERNIGHT LOWS SAT AND SUN NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO
MID 60S...AND MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE MORE MUGGY WITH LOWS IN THE 60S
TO AROUND 70. TEMPS MAY FALL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL BY MID TO
LATE WEEK. STAYED CLOSER TO THE EURO THOUGH AS THE GFS IS PROBABLY
OVERDOING THE COOL AIR INCURSION LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE THE COMING TAF
PERIOD. EXPECT FEW/SCT CU TO DEVELOP DURING THE DAY TODAY...WITH A
TRANSITION TO MORE MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE.

ONLY THREAT FOR RESTRICTIONS THROUGH DAYBREAK SATURDAY WILL BE IN
THE FORM ON FOG TONIGHT AT LEB/HIE.  FOG WILL BE LESS WIDESPREAD AND
DENSE THAN IT WAS THIS MORNING GIVEN DRIER LLEVEL AIRMASS...MODERATE
WINDS ALOFT...AND NO RAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.  THUS...WILL
ONLY CARRY SOME MVFR RESTRICTIONS IN THE HOURS LEADING TO DAYBREAK
AT THESE SITES.

WINDS: WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10G18KTS FOR THE DAY TODAY
BEFORE DIMINISHING TO 5KTS OR LESS TONIGHT.

A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY...PARTICULARLY FOR OUR NORTHERN NH
TERMINALS.  BRIEF MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN ANY OF THESE
SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH CONDITIONS REMAINING VFR ELSEWHERE.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR SAT NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY... WITH VLY FOG
POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT. SCT SHRA/TSRA WILL IMPACT MOST OF THE
TERMINALS LATE MON AND MON NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...WINDS/WAVES LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT LEVELS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD UNDER
GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS.

LONG TERM....PERSISTENT SW FLOW SUNDAY AND MONDAY COULD BRING
SWELL TO 5 FT OR SO BY SUNDAY NIGHT....WHICH WOULD LINGER THROUGH
MON NIGHT.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...ARNOTT
MARINE...



000
FXUS61 KGYX 311014 AAB
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
614 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TODAY...PROVIDING A DAY
WITH VERY LITTLE CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS FOR A CHANGE.
IT WILL STILL BE WARM TODAY...BUT NOTICEABLY LESS HUMID THAN
PREVIOUS DAYS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
BEHIND THIS FRONT WE WILL SEE ANOTHER DROP IN TEMPERATURES AND
HUMIDITY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE ALOFT...SITUATED OVER QUEBEC...WILL
BRING A THREAT FOR SHOWERS OR STORMS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. COOLER
AIR MOVES IN THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE: LOWERED SKY COVER SOMEWHAT AND ALLOWED PATCHY FOG TO
CONTINUE THROUGH 12Z BASED ON EARLY MORNING OBSERVATIONS.
OTHERWISE...NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED TO THE GOING FORECAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: PATCHY DENSE FOG THROUGH EARLY
MORNING...THEN NIL.

CURRENT PATTERN: HUDSON BAY LOW HAS BECOME RE-ESTABLISHED AS OF THIS
WRITING AS POTENT SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW HAVE BECOME
VERTICALLY-STACKED AND STATIONARY IN THIS REGION. SOUTH OF THIS
FEATURE A COLD FRONT IS DRAPED FROM QUEBEC SOUTHWEST ALONG THE EAST
COAST OF THE UNITED STATES.  BEHIND THIS FEATURE...EARLY MORNING
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS SUBSTANTIAL MIDLEVEL DRYING IS TAKING
PLACE...WITH LLEVEL DRYING OCCURRING JUST A TAD SLOWER IN A BROAD
SUBSIDENT REGIME.  LOOKING UPSTREAM...ADDITIONAL LOW-MID LEVEL
MOISTURE CAN BE SEEN ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE OVER THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES PINWHEELING EAST. IN THE POST-FRONTAL
AIRMASS...A GENERALLY QUIET DAY IS EXPECTED TODAY...WITH FORECAST
CONCERNS CENTERED AROUND THE AFOREMENTIONED UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE AND
IT/S IMPLICATIONS FOR CLOUD/SHOWER POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON.

FOG: A HANDFUL OF LOCATIONS HAVE SEEN VSBYS DROP BELOW A MILE EARLY
THIS MORNING.  EXPECT VSBYS TO IMPROVE TOWARDS DAYBREAK AS LLEVEL
DRY ADVECTION CONTINUES...WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING THROUGH THE 60S AND
INTO THE UPPER 50S.

CLOUDS/PRECIP: MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE NOW CROSSING FROM ONTARIO INTO
WESTERN QUEBEC WILL RACE RAPIDLY EAST-NORTHEAST TODAY WITH AN UPTICK
IN QG FORCING FOR ASCENT SPREADING ACROSS NORTHERN NH AND NW MAINE
EARLY...BUT THEN CONTINUING EAST WITH OUR REGION IN ANTICYCLONIC
DPVA FOR THE AFTERNOON. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A NON-ZERO BUILDUP OF
CAPE DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH THE RELATIVELY COOL TEMPERATURES
ALOFT... HOWEVER...SUBSTANTIAL CAPPING WILL BE IN PLACE IN THE
H6-7 LAYER. THUS...HAVE A HARD TIME SEEING MUCH IF ANY SHRA
ACTIVITY DEVELOPING...WITH PERHAPS A SPRINKLE IN THE MOUNTAINS
DURING THE AFTERNOON. A MUCH BETTER BET IS SOME INCREASE IN
CLOUDINESS BY AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE LOWER DEWPOINTS...IT WILL BE
VERY PLEASANT DAY TO END JULY.

TEMPERATURES: H8 TEMPS ARE SLOWLY DROPPING IN THE POST-FRONTAL
AIRMASS...BUT WILL REMAIN IN THE MID TEENS...SUPPORTING HIGHS WELL
INTO THE 80S PARTICULARLY IN THE DOWNSLOPE REGIMES...WITH LESS
IMPACTS FROM ANY SEA-BREEZES GIVEN DECENT WESTERLY GRADIENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: THREAT FOR AN ISOLATED SEVERE
STORM PARTICULARLY NORTHERN AREAS ON SATURDAY.

PATTERN/IMPLICATIONS: CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE PATTERN
THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE COLUMN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD
WITH ONE PRIMARY DISTURBANCE IN THIS CYCLONIC FLOW PUSHING INTO THE
AREA ON SATURDAY.  FORECAST CHALLENGES PRIMARILY CENTER ON THIS
FEATURE...AND IT/S ABILITY TO BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
REGION.

FRIDAY NIGHT:  GOOD FLOW OFF THE DECK AND A DRIER EVENING AIRMASS
SUGGESTS MUCH LESS FOG POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY AFTER A DAY
THAT SHOULD BE FREE FROM RAIN.  EXPECT SOME INCREASING MID AND UPPER
LEVEL CLOUDINESS FROM UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE LATE...WITH A PARTLY CLOUDY
NIGHT ON TAP THROUGHOUT THE REGION.  WITH THE DRIER LLEVEL
AIRMASS...A COOLER NIGHT LOOKS TO BE IN STORE...WITH LOWS RANGING
FROM THE MID 50S NORTH TO THE LOWER 60S COASTAL AREAS AND SOUTHERN
NEW HAMPSHIRE.

SATURDAY: ROBUST SHORTWAVE ROTATES INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY WITH
ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS OVERSPREADING THE REGION.  THIS QG
FORCING WILL BE WORKING WITH MODESTLY INCREASED MOISTURE AS COMPARED
TO FRIDAY AS PWATS MOVE BACK TO AROUND ONE INCH /RIGHT AROUND NORMAL
FOR THE FIRST DAY OF AUGUST/. LOW AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
DECENT...ASSISTED BY MID LEVEL COOL POOL TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION.
THUS...FULLY EXPECT SHOWERS TO EXPAND ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
MORNING AS DAYTIME HEATING LEADS TO GROWING LLEVEL INSTABILITY.
AS FOR THE THUNDER THREAT...INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL AS SURFACE
DEWPOINTS STRUGGLE BACK TO THE 60 DEGREE MARK. IN ADDITION...THERE
IS PLENTY OF DRY AIR ALOFT...WHICH...WHEN COMBINED WITH STOUT DEEP
SHEAR /0-6KM BULK SHEAR 40-50 KTS/ COULD POTENTIALLY PORTEND A
HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT DUE TO ENTRAINMENT. THAT SAID...WITH ENOUGH
INSTABILITY...ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WOULD HAVE ACCESS TO AMPLE
SHEAR AND LOWER FREEZING LEVELS THAN OF LATE...AND THUS A
CONDITIONAL SEVERE THREAT. BEST MOISTURE RESIDES FURTHER
NORTH...WHICH AGREES WELL WITH SPC/S INTRODUCTION OF A MARGINAL
RISK OVER COOS COUNTY NH AND MUCH OF NORTHERN MAINE. WILL
INTRODUCE MENTION OF THIS POTENTIAL IN THE MORNING HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE A TAD COOLER THAN ON
FRIDAY...PARTICULARLY FURTHER NORTH WHERE THE GREATEST CLOUD COVER
AND PRECIPITATION COVERAGE IS EXPECTED. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
RANGE FROM THE 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS THE LOWER/MIDDLE 80S OVER
SOUTHWEST MAINE AND SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
500 MB CONTINUES TO TEND BACK TOWARD A MORE +PNA
PATTERN...ALTHOUGH SKEWING MORE TOWARDS AN OMEGA BLOCK BY MID TO
LATE WEEK WITH TROUGHING FIRMLY ENSCONCED OVER JAMES BAY AND NRN
QUEBEC. THIS TREND WILL LEAD TO AN UNSETTLED PATTERN THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH THE THREAT FOR SHRA/TSRA...HIGHEST IN THE NORTHERN
ZONES. HOWEVER...FAST FLOW WILL KEEP THINGS MOVING AND PREVENT
ANY SIGNIFICANT RAIN EVENTS.

SUNDAY WILL SEE PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND CHANCE FOR SHRA/TSRA IN THE
MTNS. MON AFTERNOON INTO TUE LOOK LIKE THE BEST CHC FOR CWA WIDE
SHRA/TSRA AS TROUGHING SAGS S...AND PULLS A COLD FRONT THROUGH NRN
NEW ENGLAND. WED /THU WILL KEEP US ON THE COOLER SIDE OF THE
FRONT...AS IT STALLS ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC. SOME MTNS SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE AS UPPR LVL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD POOL WILL
BE JUST TO THE N OF THE CWA.

TEMPERATURE WILL SUNDAY WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
70S TO MID 80...BUT WILL CLIMB BACK ABOVE NORMAL ON MONDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE 80S...AND APPROACHING 90 AGAIN IN INTERIOR SRN NH.
OVERNIGHT LOWS SAT AND SUN NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO
MID 60S...AND MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE MORE MUGGY WITH LOWS IN THE 60S
TO AROUND 70. TEMPS MAY FALL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL BY MID TO
LATE WEEK. STAYED CLOSER TO THE EURO THOUGH AS THE GFS IS PROBABLY
OVERDOING THE COOL AIR INCURSION LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE THE COMING TAF
PERIOD. EXPECT FEW/SCT CU TO DEVELOP DURING THE DAY TODAY...WITH A
TRANSITION TO MORE MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE.

ONLY THREAT FOR RESTRICTIONS THROUGH DAYBREAK SATURDAY WILL BE IN
THE FORM ON FOG TONIGHT AT LEB/HIE.  FOG WILL BE LESS WIDESPREAD AND
DENSE THAN IT WAS THIS MORNING GIVEN DRIER LLEVEL AIRMASS...MODERATE
WINDS ALOFT...AND NO RAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.  THUS...WILL
ONLY CARRY SOME MVFR RESTRICTIONS IN THE HOURS LEADING TO DAYBREAK
AT THESE SITES.

WINDS: WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10G18KTS FOR THE DAY TODAY
BEFORE DIMINISHING TO 5KTS OR LESS TONIGHT.

A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY...PARTICULARLY FOR OUR NORTHERN NH
TERMINALS.  BRIEF MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN ANY OF THESE
SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH CONDITIONS REMAINING VFR ELSEWHERE.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR SAT NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY... WITH VLY FOG
POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT. SCT SHRA/TSRA WILL IMPACT MOST OF THE
TERMINALS LATE MON AND MON NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...WINDS/WAVES LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT LEVELS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD UNDER
GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS.

LONG TERM....PERSISTENT SW FLOW SUNDAY AND MONDAY COULD BRING
SWELL TO 5 FT OR SO BY SUNDAY NIGHT....WHICH WOULD LINGER THROUGH
MON NIGHT.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...ARNOTT
MARINE...



000
FXUS61 KGYX 311014 AAB
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
614 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TODAY...PROVIDING A DAY
WITH VERY LITTLE CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS FOR A CHANGE.
IT WILL STILL BE WARM TODAY...BUT NOTICEABLY LESS HUMID THAN
PREVIOUS DAYS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
BEHIND THIS FRONT WE WILL SEE ANOTHER DROP IN TEMPERATURES AND
HUMIDITY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE ALOFT...SITUATED OVER QUEBEC...WILL
BRING A THREAT FOR SHOWERS OR STORMS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. COOLER
AIR MOVES IN THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE: LOWERED SKY COVER SOMEWHAT AND ALLOWED PATCHY FOG TO
CONTINUE THROUGH 12Z BASED ON EARLY MORNING OBSERVATIONS.
OTHERWISE...NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED TO THE GOING FORECAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: PATCHY DENSE FOG THROUGH EARLY
MORNING...THEN NIL.

CURRENT PATTERN: HUDSON BAY LOW HAS BECOME RE-ESTABLISHED AS OF THIS
WRITING AS POTENT SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW HAVE BECOME
VERTICALLY-STACKED AND STATIONARY IN THIS REGION. SOUTH OF THIS
FEATURE A COLD FRONT IS DRAPED FROM QUEBEC SOUTHWEST ALONG THE EAST
COAST OF THE UNITED STATES.  BEHIND THIS FEATURE...EARLY MORNING
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS SUBSTANTIAL MIDLEVEL DRYING IS TAKING
PLACE...WITH LLEVEL DRYING OCCURRING JUST A TAD SLOWER IN A BROAD
SUBSIDENT REGIME.  LOOKING UPSTREAM...ADDITIONAL LOW-MID LEVEL
MOISTURE CAN BE SEEN ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE OVER THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES PINWHEELING EAST. IN THE POST-FRONTAL
AIRMASS...A GENERALLY QUIET DAY IS EXPECTED TODAY...WITH FORECAST
CONCERNS CENTERED AROUND THE AFOREMENTIONED UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE AND
IT/S IMPLICATIONS FOR CLOUD/SHOWER POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON.

FOG: A HANDFUL OF LOCATIONS HAVE SEEN VSBYS DROP BELOW A MILE EARLY
THIS MORNING.  EXPECT VSBYS TO IMPROVE TOWARDS DAYBREAK AS LLEVEL
DRY ADVECTION CONTINUES...WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING THROUGH THE 60S AND
INTO THE UPPER 50S.

CLOUDS/PRECIP: MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE NOW CROSSING FROM ONTARIO INTO
WESTERN QUEBEC WILL RACE RAPIDLY EAST-NORTHEAST TODAY WITH AN UPTICK
IN QG FORCING FOR ASCENT SPREADING ACROSS NORTHERN NH AND NW MAINE
EARLY...BUT THEN CONTINUING EAST WITH OUR REGION IN ANTICYCLONIC
DPVA FOR THE AFTERNOON. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A NON-ZERO BUILDUP OF
CAPE DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH THE RELATIVELY COOL TEMPERATURES
ALOFT... HOWEVER...SUBSTANTIAL CAPPING WILL BE IN PLACE IN THE
H6-7 LAYER. THUS...HAVE A HARD TIME SEEING MUCH IF ANY SHRA
ACTIVITY DEVELOPING...WITH PERHAPS A SPRINKLE IN THE MOUNTAINS
DURING THE AFTERNOON. A MUCH BETTER BET IS SOME INCREASE IN
CLOUDINESS BY AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE LOWER DEWPOINTS...IT WILL BE
VERY PLEASANT DAY TO END JULY.

TEMPERATURES: H8 TEMPS ARE SLOWLY DROPPING IN THE POST-FRONTAL
AIRMASS...BUT WILL REMAIN IN THE MID TEENS...SUPPORTING HIGHS WELL
INTO THE 80S PARTICULARLY IN THE DOWNSLOPE REGIMES...WITH LESS
IMPACTS FROM ANY SEA-BREEZES GIVEN DECENT WESTERLY GRADIENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: THREAT FOR AN ISOLATED SEVERE
STORM PARTICULARLY NORTHERN AREAS ON SATURDAY.

PATTERN/IMPLICATIONS: CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE PATTERN
THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE COLUMN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD
WITH ONE PRIMARY DISTURBANCE IN THIS CYCLONIC FLOW PUSHING INTO THE
AREA ON SATURDAY.  FORECAST CHALLENGES PRIMARILY CENTER ON THIS
FEATURE...AND IT/S ABILITY TO BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
REGION.

FRIDAY NIGHT:  GOOD FLOW OFF THE DECK AND A DRIER EVENING AIRMASS
SUGGESTS MUCH LESS FOG POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY AFTER A DAY
THAT SHOULD BE FREE FROM RAIN.  EXPECT SOME INCREASING MID AND UPPER
LEVEL CLOUDINESS FROM UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE LATE...WITH A PARTLY CLOUDY
NIGHT ON TAP THROUGHOUT THE REGION.  WITH THE DRIER LLEVEL
AIRMASS...A COOLER NIGHT LOOKS TO BE IN STORE...WITH LOWS RANGING
FROM THE MID 50S NORTH TO THE LOWER 60S COASTAL AREAS AND SOUTHERN
NEW HAMPSHIRE.

SATURDAY: ROBUST SHORTWAVE ROTATES INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY WITH
ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS OVERSPREADING THE REGION.  THIS QG
FORCING WILL BE WORKING WITH MODESTLY INCREASED MOISTURE AS COMPARED
TO FRIDAY AS PWATS MOVE BACK TO AROUND ONE INCH /RIGHT AROUND NORMAL
FOR THE FIRST DAY OF AUGUST/. LOW AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
DECENT...ASSISTED BY MID LEVEL COOL POOL TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION.
THUS...FULLY EXPECT SHOWERS TO EXPAND ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
MORNING AS DAYTIME HEATING LEADS TO GROWING LLEVEL INSTABILITY.
AS FOR THE THUNDER THREAT...INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL AS SURFACE
DEWPOINTS STRUGGLE BACK TO THE 60 DEGREE MARK. IN ADDITION...THERE
IS PLENTY OF DRY AIR ALOFT...WHICH...WHEN COMBINED WITH STOUT DEEP
SHEAR /0-6KM BULK SHEAR 40-50 KTS/ COULD POTENTIALLY PORTEND A
HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT DUE TO ENTRAINMENT. THAT SAID...WITH ENOUGH
INSTABILITY...ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WOULD HAVE ACCESS TO AMPLE
SHEAR AND LOWER FREEZING LEVELS THAN OF LATE...AND THUS A
CONDITIONAL SEVERE THREAT. BEST MOISTURE RESIDES FURTHER
NORTH...WHICH AGREES WELL WITH SPC/S INTRODUCTION OF A MARGINAL
RISK OVER COOS COUNTY NH AND MUCH OF NORTHERN MAINE. WILL
INTRODUCE MENTION OF THIS POTENTIAL IN THE MORNING HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE A TAD COOLER THAN ON
FRIDAY...PARTICULARLY FURTHER NORTH WHERE THE GREATEST CLOUD COVER
AND PRECIPITATION COVERAGE IS EXPECTED. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
RANGE FROM THE 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS THE LOWER/MIDDLE 80S OVER
SOUTHWEST MAINE AND SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
500 MB CONTINUES TO TEND BACK TOWARD A MORE +PNA
PATTERN...ALTHOUGH SKEWING MORE TOWARDS AN OMEGA BLOCK BY MID TO
LATE WEEK WITH TROUGHING FIRMLY ENSCONCED OVER JAMES BAY AND NRN
QUEBEC. THIS TREND WILL LEAD TO AN UNSETTLED PATTERN THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH THE THREAT FOR SHRA/TSRA...HIGHEST IN THE NORTHERN
ZONES. HOWEVER...FAST FLOW WILL KEEP THINGS MOVING AND PREVENT
ANY SIGNIFICANT RAIN EVENTS.

SUNDAY WILL SEE PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND CHANCE FOR SHRA/TSRA IN THE
MTNS. MON AFTERNOON INTO TUE LOOK LIKE THE BEST CHC FOR CWA WIDE
SHRA/TSRA AS TROUGHING SAGS S...AND PULLS A COLD FRONT THROUGH NRN
NEW ENGLAND. WED /THU WILL KEEP US ON THE COOLER SIDE OF THE
FRONT...AS IT STALLS ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC. SOME MTNS SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE AS UPPR LVL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD POOL WILL
BE JUST TO THE N OF THE CWA.

TEMPERATURE WILL SUNDAY WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
70S TO MID 80...BUT WILL CLIMB BACK ABOVE NORMAL ON MONDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE 80S...AND APPROACHING 90 AGAIN IN INTERIOR SRN NH.
OVERNIGHT LOWS SAT AND SUN NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO
MID 60S...AND MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE MORE MUGGY WITH LOWS IN THE 60S
TO AROUND 70. TEMPS MAY FALL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL BY MID TO
LATE WEEK. STAYED CLOSER TO THE EURO THOUGH AS THE GFS IS PROBABLY
OVERDOING THE COOL AIR INCURSION LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE THE COMING TAF
PERIOD. EXPECT FEW/SCT CU TO DEVELOP DURING THE DAY TODAY...WITH A
TRANSITION TO MORE MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE.

ONLY THREAT FOR RESTRICTIONS THROUGH DAYBREAK SATURDAY WILL BE IN
THE FORM ON FOG TONIGHT AT LEB/HIE.  FOG WILL BE LESS WIDESPREAD AND
DENSE THAN IT WAS THIS MORNING GIVEN DRIER LLEVEL AIRMASS...MODERATE
WINDS ALOFT...AND NO RAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.  THUS...WILL
ONLY CARRY SOME MVFR RESTRICTIONS IN THE HOURS LEADING TO DAYBREAK
AT THESE SITES.

WINDS: WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10G18KTS FOR THE DAY TODAY
BEFORE DIMINISHING TO 5KTS OR LESS TONIGHT.

A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY...PARTICULARLY FOR OUR NORTHERN NH
TERMINALS.  BRIEF MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN ANY OF THESE
SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH CONDITIONS REMAINING VFR ELSEWHERE.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR SAT NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY... WITH VLY FOG
POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT. SCT SHRA/TSRA WILL IMPACT MOST OF THE
TERMINALS LATE MON AND MON NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...WINDS/WAVES LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT LEVELS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD UNDER
GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS.

LONG TERM....PERSISTENT SW FLOW SUNDAY AND MONDAY COULD BRING
SWELL TO 5 FT OR SO BY SUNDAY NIGHT....WHICH WOULD LINGER THROUGH
MON NIGHT.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...ARNOTT
MARINE...



000
FXUS61 KGYX 311014 AAB
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
614 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TODAY...PROVIDING A DAY
WITH VERY LITTLE CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS FOR A CHANGE.
IT WILL STILL BE WARM TODAY...BUT NOTICEABLY LESS HUMID THAN
PREVIOUS DAYS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
BEHIND THIS FRONT WE WILL SEE ANOTHER DROP IN TEMPERATURES AND
HUMIDITY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE ALOFT...SITUATED OVER QUEBEC...WILL
BRING A THREAT FOR SHOWERS OR STORMS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. COOLER
AIR MOVES IN THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE: LOWERED SKY COVER SOMEWHAT AND ALLOWED PATCHY FOG TO
CONTINUE THROUGH 12Z BASED ON EARLY MORNING OBSERVATIONS.
OTHERWISE...NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED TO THE GOING FORECAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: PATCHY DENSE FOG THROUGH EARLY
MORNING...THEN NIL.

CURRENT PATTERN: HUDSON BAY LOW HAS BECOME RE-ESTABLISHED AS OF THIS
WRITING AS POTENT SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW HAVE BECOME
VERTICALLY-STACKED AND STATIONARY IN THIS REGION. SOUTH OF THIS
FEATURE A COLD FRONT IS DRAPED FROM QUEBEC SOUTHWEST ALONG THE EAST
COAST OF THE UNITED STATES.  BEHIND THIS FEATURE...EARLY MORNING
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS SUBSTANTIAL MIDLEVEL DRYING IS TAKING
PLACE...WITH LLEVEL DRYING OCCURRING JUST A TAD SLOWER IN A BROAD
SUBSIDENT REGIME.  LOOKING UPSTREAM...ADDITIONAL LOW-MID LEVEL
MOISTURE CAN BE SEEN ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE OVER THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES PINWHEELING EAST. IN THE POST-FRONTAL
AIRMASS...A GENERALLY QUIET DAY IS EXPECTED TODAY...WITH FORECAST
CONCERNS CENTERED AROUND THE AFOREMENTIONED UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE AND
IT/S IMPLICATIONS FOR CLOUD/SHOWER POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON.

FOG: A HANDFUL OF LOCATIONS HAVE SEEN VSBYS DROP BELOW A MILE EARLY
THIS MORNING.  EXPECT VSBYS TO IMPROVE TOWARDS DAYBREAK AS LLEVEL
DRY ADVECTION CONTINUES...WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING THROUGH THE 60S AND
INTO THE UPPER 50S.

CLOUDS/PRECIP: MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE NOW CROSSING FROM ONTARIO INTO
WESTERN QUEBEC WILL RACE RAPIDLY EAST-NORTHEAST TODAY WITH AN UPTICK
IN QG FORCING FOR ASCENT SPREADING ACROSS NORTHERN NH AND NW MAINE
EARLY...BUT THEN CONTINUING EAST WITH OUR REGION IN ANTICYCLONIC
DPVA FOR THE AFTERNOON. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A NON-ZERO BUILDUP OF
CAPE DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH THE RELATIVELY COOL TEMPERATURES
ALOFT... HOWEVER...SUBSTANTIAL CAPPING WILL BE IN PLACE IN THE
H6-7 LAYER. THUS...HAVE A HARD TIME SEEING MUCH IF ANY SHRA
ACTIVITY DEVELOPING...WITH PERHAPS A SPRINKLE IN THE MOUNTAINS
DURING THE AFTERNOON. A MUCH BETTER BET IS SOME INCREASE IN
CLOUDINESS BY AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE LOWER DEWPOINTS...IT WILL BE
VERY PLEASANT DAY TO END JULY.

TEMPERATURES: H8 TEMPS ARE SLOWLY DROPPING IN THE POST-FRONTAL
AIRMASS...BUT WILL REMAIN IN THE MID TEENS...SUPPORTING HIGHS WELL
INTO THE 80S PARTICULARLY IN THE DOWNSLOPE REGIMES...WITH LESS
IMPACTS FROM ANY SEA-BREEZES GIVEN DECENT WESTERLY GRADIENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: THREAT FOR AN ISOLATED SEVERE
STORM PARTICULARLY NORTHERN AREAS ON SATURDAY.

PATTERN/IMPLICATIONS: CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE PATTERN
THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE COLUMN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD
WITH ONE PRIMARY DISTURBANCE IN THIS CYCLONIC FLOW PUSHING INTO THE
AREA ON SATURDAY.  FORECAST CHALLENGES PRIMARILY CENTER ON THIS
FEATURE...AND IT/S ABILITY TO BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
REGION.

FRIDAY NIGHT:  GOOD FLOW OFF THE DECK AND A DRIER EVENING AIRMASS
SUGGESTS MUCH LESS FOG POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY AFTER A DAY
THAT SHOULD BE FREE FROM RAIN.  EXPECT SOME INCREASING MID AND UPPER
LEVEL CLOUDINESS FROM UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE LATE...WITH A PARTLY CLOUDY
NIGHT ON TAP THROUGHOUT THE REGION.  WITH THE DRIER LLEVEL
AIRMASS...A COOLER NIGHT LOOKS TO BE IN STORE...WITH LOWS RANGING
FROM THE MID 50S NORTH TO THE LOWER 60S COASTAL AREAS AND SOUTHERN
NEW HAMPSHIRE.

SATURDAY: ROBUST SHORTWAVE ROTATES INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY WITH
ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS OVERSPREADING THE REGION.  THIS QG
FORCING WILL BE WORKING WITH MODESTLY INCREASED MOISTURE AS COMPARED
TO FRIDAY AS PWATS MOVE BACK TO AROUND ONE INCH /RIGHT AROUND NORMAL
FOR THE FIRST DAY OF AUGUST/. LOW AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
DECENT...ASSISTED BY MID LEVEL COOL POOL TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION.
THUS...FULLY EXPECT SHOWERS TO EXPAND ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
MORNING AS DAYTIME HEATING LEADS TO GROWING LLEVEL INSTABILITY.
AS FOR THE THUNDER THREAT...INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL AS SURFACE
DEWPOINTS STRUGGLE BACK TO THE 60 DEGREE MARK. IN ADDITION...THERE
IS PLENTY OF DRY AIR ALOFT...WHICH...WHEN COMBINED WITH STOUT DEEP
SHEAR /0-6KM BULK SHEAR 40-50 KTS/ COULD POTENTIALLY PORTEND A
HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT DUE TO ENTRAINMENT. THAT SAID...WITH ENOUGH
INSTABILITY...ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WOULD HAVE ACCESS TO AMPLE
SHEAR AND LOWER FREEZING LEVELS THAN OF LATE...AND THUS A
CONDITIONAL SEVERE THREAT. BEST MOISTURE RESIDES FURTHER
NORTH...WHICH AGREES WELL WITH SPC/S INTRODUCTION OF A MARGINAL
RISK OVER COOS COUNTY NH AND MUCH OF NORTHERN MAINE. WILL
INTRODUCE MENTION OF THIS POTENTIAL IN THE MORNING HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE A TAD COOLER THAN ON
FRIDAY...PARTICULARLY FURTHER NORTH WHERE THE GREATEST CLOUD COVER
AND PRECIPITATION COVERAGE IS EXPECTED. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
RANGE FROM THE 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS THE LOWER/MIDDLE 80S OVER
SOUTHWEST MAINE AND SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
500 MB CONTINUES TO TEND BACK TOWARD A MORE +PNA
PATTERN...ALTHOUGH SKEWING MORE TOWARDS AN OMEGA BLOCK BY MID TO
LATE WEEK WITH TROUGHING FIRMLY ENSCONCED OVER JAMES BAY AND NRN
QUEBEC. THIS TREND WILL LEAD TO AN UNSETTLED PATTERN THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH THE THREAT FOR SHRA/TSRA...HIGHEST IN THE NORTHERN
ZONES. HOWEVER...FAST FLOW WILL KEEP THINGS MOVING AND PREVENT
ANY SIGNIFICANT RAIN EVENTS.

SUNDAY WILL SEE PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND CHANCE FOR SHRA/TSRA IN THE
MTNS. MON AFTERNOON INTO TUE LOOK LIKE THE BEST CHC FOR CWA WIDE
SHRA/TSRA AS TROUGHING SAGS S...AND PULLS A COLD FRONT THROUGH NRN
NEW ENGLAND. WED /THU WILL KEEP US ON THE COOLER SIDE OF THE
FRONT...AS IT STALLS ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC. SOME MTNS SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE AS UPPR LVL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD POOL WILL
BE JUST TO THE N OF THE CWA.

TEMPERATURE WILL SUNDAY WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
70S TO MID 80...BUT WILL CLIMB BACK ABOVE NORMAL ON MONDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE 80S...AND APPROACHING 90 AGAIN IN INTERIOR SRN NH.
OVERNIGHT LOWS SAT AND SUN NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO
MID 60S...AND MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE MORE MUGGY WITH LOWS IN THE 60S
TO AROUND 70. TEMPS MAY FALL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL BY MID TO
LATE WEEK. STAYED CLOSER TO THE EURO THOUGH AS THE GFS IS PROBABLY
OVERDOING THE COOL AIR INCURSION LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE THE COMING TAF
PERIOD. EXPECT FEW/SCT CU TO DEVELOP DURING THE DAY TODAY...WITH A
TRANSITION TO MORE MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE.

ONLY THREAT FOR RESTRICTIONS THROUGH DAYBREAK SATURDAY WILL BE IN
THE FORM ON FOG TONIGHT AT LEB/HIE.  FOG WILL BE LESS WIDESPREAD AND
DENSE THAN IT WAS THIS MORNING GIVEN DRIER LLEVEL AIRMASS...MODERATE
WINDS ALOFT...AND NO RAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.  THUS...WILL
ONLY CARRY SOME MVFR RESTRICTIONS IN THE HOURS LEADING TO DAYBREAK
AT THESE SITES.

WINDS: WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10G18KTS FOR THE DAY TODAY
BEFORE DIMINISHING TO 5KTS OR LESS TONIGHT.

A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY...PARTICULARLY FOR OUR NORTHERN NH
TERMINALS.  BRIEF MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN ANY OF THESE
SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH CONDITIONS REMAINING VFR ELSEWHERE.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR SAT NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY... WITH VLY FOG
POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT. SCT SHRA/TSRA WILL IMPACT MOST OF THE
TERMINALS LATE MON AND MON NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...WINDS/WAVES LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT LEVELS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD UNDER
GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS.

LONG TERM....PERSISTENT SW FLOW SUNDAY AND MONDAY COULD BRING
SWELL TO 5 FT OR SO BY SUNDAY NIGHT....WHICH WOULD LINGER THROUGH
MON NIGHT.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...ARNOTT
MARINE...



000
FXUS61 KGYX 310955 AAA
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
555 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TODAY...PROVIDING A DAY
WITH VERY LITTLE CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS FOR A CHANGE.
IT WILL STILL BE WARM TODAY...BUT NOTICEABLY LESS HUMID THAN
PREVIOUS DAYS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
BEHIND THIS FRONT WE WILL SEE ANOTHER DROP IN TEMPERATURES AND
HUMIDITY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE ALOFT...SITUATED OVER QUEBEC...WILL
BRING A THREAT FOR SHOWERS OR STORMS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. COOLER
AIR MOVES IN THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE: LOWERED SKY COVER SOMEWHAT AND ALLOWED PATCHY FOG TO
CONTINUE THROUGH 12Z BASED ON EARLY MORNING OBSERVATIONS.
OTHERWISE...NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED TO THE GOING FORECAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: PATCHY DENSE FOG THROUGH EARLY
MORNING...THEN NIL.

CURRENT PATTERN: HUDSON BAY LOW HAS BECOME RE-ESTABLISHED AS OF THIS
WRITING AS POTENT SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW HAVE BECOME
VERTICALLY-STACKED AND STATIONARY IN THIS REGION. SOUTH OF THIS
FEATURE A COLD FRONT IS DRAPED FROM QUEBEC SOUTHWEST ALONG THE EAST
COAST OF THE UNITED STATES.  BEHIND THIS FEATURE...EARLY MORNING
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS SUBSTANTIAL MIDLEVEL DRYING IS TAKING
PLACE...WITH LLEVEL DRYING OCCURRING JUST A TAD SLOWER IN A BROAD
SUBSIDENT REGIME.  LOOKING UPSTREAM...ADDITIONAL LOW-MID LEVEL
MOISTURE CAN BE SEEN ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE OVER THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES PINWHEELING EAST. IN THE POST-FRONTAL
AIRMASS...A GENERALLY QUIET DAY IS EXPECTED TODAY...WITH FORECAST
CONCERNS CENTERED AROUND THE AFOREMENTIONED UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE AND
IT/S IMPLICATIONS FOR CLOUD/SHOWER POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON.

FOG: A HANDFUL OF LOCATIONS HAVE SEEN VSBYS DROP BELOW A MILE EARLY
THIS MORNING.  EXPECT VSBYS TO IMPROVE TOWARDS DAYBREAK AS LLEVEL
DRY ADVECTION CONTINUES...WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING THROUGH THE 60S AND
INTO THE UPPER 50S.

CLOUDS/PRECIP: MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE NOW CROSSING FROM ONTARIO INTO
WESTERN QUEBEC WILL RACE RAPIDLY EAST-NORTHEAST TODAY WITH AN UPTICK
IN QG FORCING FOR ASCENT SPREADING ACROSS NORTHERN NH AND NW MAINE
EARLY...BUT THEN CONTINUING EAST WITH OUR REGION IN ANTICYCLONIC
DPVA FOR THE AFTERNOON. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A NON-ZERO BUILDUP OF
CAPE DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH THE RELATIVELY COOL TEMPERATURES
ALOFT... HOWEVER...SUBSTANTIAL CAPPING WILL BE IN PLACE IN THE
H6-7 LAYER. THUS...HAVE A HARD TIME SEEING MUCH IF ANY SHRA
ACTIVITY DEVELOPING...WITH PERHAPS A SPRINKLE IN THE MOUNTAINS
DURING THE AFTERNOON. A MUCH BETTER BET IS SOME INCREASE IN
CLOUDINESS BY AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE LOWER DEWPOINTS...IT WILL BE
VERY PLEASANT DAY TO END JULY.

TEMPERATURES: H8 TEMPS ARE SLOWLY DROPPING IN THE POST-FRONTAL
AIRMASS...BUT WILL REMAIN IN THE MID TEENS...SUPPORTING HIGHS WELL
INTO THE 80S PARTICULARLY IN THE DOWNSLOPE REGIMES...WITH LESS
IMPACTS FROM ANY SEA-BREEZES GIVEN DECENT WESTERLY GRADIENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: THREAT FOR AN ISOLATED SEVERE
STORM PARTICULARLY NORTHERN AREAS ON SATURDAY.

PATTERN/IMPLICATIONS: CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE PATTERN
THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE COLUMN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD
WITH ONE PRIMARY DISTURBANCE IN THIS CYCLONIC FLOW PUSHING INTO THE
AREA ON SATURDAY.  FORECAST CHALLENGES PRIMARILY CENTER ON THIS
FEATURE...AND IT/S ABILITY TO BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
REGION.

FRIDAY NIGHT:  GOOD FLOW OFF THE DECK AND A DRIER EVENING AIRMASS
SUGGESTS MUCH LESS FOG POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY AFTER A DAY
THAT SHOULD BE FREE FROM RAIN.  EXPECT SOME INCREASING MID AND UPPER
LEVEL CLOUDINESS FROM UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE LATE...WITH A PARTLY CLOUDY
NIGHT ON TAP THROUGHOUT THE REGION.  WITH THE DRIER LLEVEL
AIRMASS...A COOLER NIGHT LOOKS TO BE IN STORE...WITH LOWS RANGING
FROM THE MID 50S NORTH TO THE LOWER 60S COASTAL AREAS AND SOUTHERN
NEW HAMPSHIRE.

SATURDAY: ROBUST SHORTWAVE ROTATES INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY WITH
ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS OVERSPREADING THE REGION.  THIS QG
FORCING WILL BE WORKING WITH MODESTLY INCREASED MOISTURE AS COMPARED
TO FRIDAY AS PWATS MOVE BACK TO AROUND ONE INCH /RIGHT AROUND NORMAL
FOR THE FIRST DAY OF AUGUST/. LOW AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
DECENT...ASSISTED BY MID LEVEL COOL POOL TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION.
THUS...FULLY EXPECT SHOWERS TO EXPAND ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
MORNING AS DAYTIME HEATING LEADS TO GROWING LLEVEL INSTABILITY.
AS FOR THE THUNDER THREAT...INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL AS SURFACE
DEWPOINTS STRUGGLE BACK TO THE 60 DEGREE MARK. IN ADDITION...THERE
IS PLENTY OF DRY AIR ALOFT...WHICH...WHEN COMBINED WITH STOUT DEEP
SHEAR /0-6KM BULK SHEAR 40-50 KTS/ COULD POTENTIALLY PORTEND A
HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT DUE TO ENTRAINMENT. THAT SAID...WITH ENOUGH
INSTABILITY...ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WOULD HAVE ACCESS TO AMPLE
SHEAR AND LOWER FREEZING LEVELS THAN OF LATE...AND THUS A
CONDITIONAL SEVERE THREAT. BEST MOISTURE RESIDES FURTHER
NORTH...WHICH AGREES WELL WITH SPC/S INTRODUCTION OF A MARGINAL
RISK OVER COOS COUNTY NH AND MUCH OF NORTHERN MAINE. WILL
INTRODUCE MENTION OF THIS POTENTIAL IN THE MORNING HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE A TAD COOLER THAN ON
FRIDAY...PARTICULARLY FURTHER NORTH WHERE THE GREATEST CLOUD COVER
AND PRECIPITATION COVERAGE IS EXPECTED. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
RANGE FROM THE 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS THE LOWER/MIDDLE 80S OVER
SOUTHWEST MAINE AND SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
500 MB CONTINUES TO TEND BACK TOWARD A MORE +PNA
PATTERN...ALTHOUGH SKEWING MORE TOWARDS AN OMEGA BLOCK BY MID TO
LATE WEEK WITH TROUGHING FIRMLY ENSCONCED OVER JAMES BAY AND NRN
QUEBEC. THIS TREND WILL LEAD TO AN UNSETTLED PATTERN THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH THE THREAT FOR SHRA/TSRA...HIGHEST IN THE NORTHERN
ZONES. HOWEVER...FAST FLOW WILL KEEP THINGS MOVING AND PREVENT
ANY SIGNIFICANT RAIN EVENTS.

SUNDAY WILL SEE PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND CHANCE FOR SHRA/TSRA IN THE
MTNS. MON AFTERNOON INTO TUE LOOK LIKE THE BEST CHC FOR CWA WIDE
SHRA/TSRA AS TROUGHING SAGS S...AND PULLS A COLD FRONT THROUGH NRN
NEW ENGLAND. WED /THU WILL KEEP US ON THE COOLER SIDE OF THE
FRONT...AS IT STALLS ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC. SOME MTNS SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE AS UPPR LVL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD POOL WILL
BE JUST TO THE N OF THE CWA.

TEMPERATURE WILL SUNDAY WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
70S TO MID 80...BUT WILL CLIMB BACK ABOVE NORMAL ON MONDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE 80S...AND APPROACHING 90 AGAIN IN INTERIOR SRN NH.
OVERNIGHT LOWS SAT AND SUN NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO
MID 60S...AND MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE MORE MUGGY WITH LOWS IN THE 60S
TO AROUND 70. TEMPS MAY FALL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL BY MID TO
LATE WEEK. STAYED CLOSER TO THE EURO THOUGH AS THE GFS IS PROBABLY
OVERDOING THE COOL AIR INCURSION LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...OUTSIDE OF EARLY MORNING IFR/LIFR FOG...EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE THE COMING TAF PERIOD AS DRIER AIR PUSHES
INTO THE REGION BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT.

THROUGH DAYBREAK...IT/S A BATTLE BETWEEN ONGOING DRY ADVECTION AND
RESIDUAL LLEVEL MOISTURE /ENHANCED BY YESTERDAY/S RAINFALL/.  FEEL
THAT THE WORST CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR DURING THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...BEFORE IMPROVING TOWARDS DAYBREAK AS DRY ADVECTION SLOWLY
WINS OUT.  LEB/HIE LIKELY TO SEE THE MOST SIGNIFICANT FOG...BUT EVEN
HERE...EXPECT ONLY BRIEF DIPS TO LIFR/VLIFR.  FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE
SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.

FOR THE DAY TODAY...EXPECT FEW-SCT CU TO DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON...
PARTICULARLY OVER LEB/HIE.  CAN/T RULE OUT A STRAY SPRINKLE IN THESE
SPOTS...BUT NO RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED.  SKIES SHOULD PARTIALLY
CLEAR THIS EVENING.

WESTERLY WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN TO 10G18KTS FOR THE DAY TODAY BEFORE
DIMINISHING TO 5KTS OR LESS THIS EVENING.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR SAT NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY... WITH VLY FOG
POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT. SCT SHRA/TSRA WILL IMPACT MOST OF THE
TERMINALS LATE MON AND MON NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...WINDS/WAVES LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT LEVELS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD UNDER
GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS.

LONG TERM....PERSISTENT SW FLOW SUNDAY AND MONDAY COULD BRING
SWELL TO 5 FT OR SO BY SUNDAY NIGHT....WHICH WOULD LINGER THROUGH
MON NIGHT.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...ARNOTT
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...




000
FXUS61 KGYX 310955 AAA
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
555 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TODAY...PROVIDING A DAY
WITH VERY LITTLE CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS FOR A CHANGE.
IT WILL STILL BE WARM TODAY...BUT NOTICEABLY LESS HUMID THAN
PREVIOUS DAYS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
BEHIND THIS FRONT WE WILL SEE ANOTHER DROP IN TEMPERATURES AND
HUMIDITY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE ALOFT...SITUATED OVER QUEBEC...WILL
BRING A THREAT FOR SHOWERS OR STORMS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. COOLER
AIR MOVES IN THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE: LOWERED SKY COVER SOMEWHAT AND ALLOWED PATCHY FOG TO
CONTINUE THROUGH 12Z BASED ON EARLY MORNING OBSERVATIONS.
OTHERWISE...NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED TO THE GOING FORECAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: PATCHY DENSE FOG THROUGH EARLY
MORNING...THEN NIL.

CURRENT PATTERN: HUDSON BAY LOW HAS BECOME RE-ESTABLISHED AS OF THIS
WRITING AS POTENT SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW HAVE BECOME
VERTICALLY-STACKED AND STATIONARY IN THIS REGION. SOUTH OF THIS
FEATURE A COLD FRONT IS DRAPED FROM QUEBEC SOUTHWEST ALONG THE EAST
COAST OF THE UNITED STATES.  BEHIND THIS FEATURE...EARLY MORNING
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS SUBSTANTIAL MIDLEVEL DRYING IS TAKING
PLACE...WITH LLEVEL DRYING OCCURRING JUST A TAD SLOWER IN A BROAD
SUBSIDENT REGIME.  LOOKING UPSTREAM...ADDITIONAL LOW-MID LEVEL
MOISTURE CAN BE SEEN ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE OVER THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES PINWHEELING EAST. IN THE POST-FRONTAL
AIRMASS...A GENERALLY QUIET DAY IS EXPECTED TODAY...WITH FORECAST
CONCERNS CENTERED AROUND THE AFOREMENTIONED UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE AND
IT/S IMPLICATIONS FOR CLOUD/SHOWER POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON.

FOG: A HANDFUL OF LOCATIONS HAVE SEEN VSBYS DROP BELOW A MILE EARLY
THIS MORNING.  EXPECT VSBYS TO IMPROVE TOWARDS DAYBREAK AS LLEVEL
DRY ADVECTION CONTINUES...WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING THROUGH THE 60S AND
INTO THE UPPER 50S.

CLOUDS/PRECIP: MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE NOW CROSSING FROM ONTARIO INTO
WESTERN QUEBEC WILL RACE RAPIDLY EAST-NORTHEAST TODAY WITH AN UPTICK
IN QG FORCING FOR ASCENT SPREADING ACROSS NORTHERN NH AND NW MAINE
EARLY...BUT THEN CONTINUING EAST WITH OUR REGION IN ANTICYCLONIC
DPVA FOR THE AFTERNOON. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A NON-ZERO BUILDUP OF
CAPE DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH THE RELATIVELY COOL TEMPERATURES
ALOFT... HOWEVER...SUBSTANTIAL CAPPING WILL BE IN PLACE IN THE
H6-7 LAYER. THUS...HAVE A HARD TIME SEEING MUCH IF ANY SHRA
ACTIVITY DEVELOPING...WITH PERHAPS A SPRINKLE IN THE MOUNTAINS
DURING THE AFTERNOON. A MUCH BETTER BET IS SOME INCREASE IN
CLOUDINESS BY AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE LOWER DEWPOINTS...IT WILL BE
VERY PLEASANT DAY TO END JULY.

TEMPERATURES: H8 TEMPS ARE SLOWLY DROPPING IN THE POST-FRONTAL
AIRMASS...BUT WILL REMAIN IN THE MID TEENS...SUPPORTING HIGHS WELL
INTO THE 80S PARTICULARLY IN THE DOWNSLOPE REGIMES...WITH LESS
IMPACTS FROM ANY SEA-BREEZES GIVEN DECENT WESTERLY GRADIENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: THREAT FOR AN ISOLATED SEVERE
STORM PARTICULARLY NORTHERN AREAS ON SATURDAY.

PATTERN/IMPLICATIONS: CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE PATTERN
THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE COLUMN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD
WITH ONE PRIMARY DISTURBANCE IN THIS CYCLONIC FLOW PUSHING INTO THE
AREA ON SATURDAY.  FORECAST CHALLENGES PRIMARILY CENTER ON THIS
FEATURE...AND IT/S ABILITY TO BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
REGION.

FRIDAY NIGHT:  GOOD FLOW OFF THE DECK AND A DRIER EVENING AIRMASS
SUGGESTS MUCH LESS FOG POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY AFTER A DAY
THAT SHOULD BE FREE FROM RAIN.  EXPECT SOME INCREASING MID AND UPPER
LEVEL CLOUDINESS FROM UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE LATE...WITH A PARTLY CLOUDY
NIGHT ON TAP THROUGHOUT THE REGION.  WITH THE DRIER LLEVEL
AIRMASS...A COOLER NIGHT LOOKS TO BE IN STORE...WITH LOWS RANGING
FROM THE MID 50S NORTH TO THE LOWER 60S COASTAL AREAS AND SOUTHERN
NEW HAMPSHIRE.

SATURDAY: ROBUST SHORTWAVE ROTATES INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY WITH
ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS OVERSPREADING THE REGION.  THIS QG
FORCING WILL BE WORKING WITH MODESTLY INCREASED MOISTURE AS COMPARED
TO FRIDAY AS PWATS MOVE BACK TO AROUND ONE INCH /RIGHT AROUND NORMAL
FOR THE FIRST DAY OF AUGUST/. LOW AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
DECENT...ASSISTED BY MID LEVEL COOL POOL TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION.
THUS...FULLY EXPECT SHOWERS TO EXPAND ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
MORNING AS DAYTIME HEATING LEADS TO GROWING LLEVEL INSTABILITY.
AS FOR THE THUNDER THREAT...INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL AS SURFACE
DEWPOINTS STRUGGLE BACK TO THE 60 DEGREE MARK. IN ADDITION...THERE
IS PLENTY OF DRY AIR ALOFT...WHICH...WHEN COMBINED WITH STOUT DEEP
SHEAR /0-6KM BULK SHEAR 40-50 KTS/ COULD POTENTIALLY PORTEND A
HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT DUE TO ENTRAINMENT. THAT SAID...WITH ENOUGH
INSTABILITY...ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WOULD HAVE ACCESS TO AMPLE
SHEAR AND LOWER FREEZING LEVELS THAN OF LATE...AND THUS A
CONDITIONAL SEVERE THREAT. BEST MOISTURE RESIDES FURTHER
NORTH...WHICH AGREES WELL WITH SPC/S INTRODUCTION OF A MARGINAL
RISK OVER COOS COUNTY NH AND MUCH OF NORTHERN MAINE. WILL
INTRODUCE MENTION OF THIS POTENTIAL IN THE MORNING HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE A TAD COOLER THAN ON
FRIDAY...PARTICULARLY FURTHER NORTH WHERE THE GREATEST CLOUD COVER
AND PRECIPITATION COVERAGE IS EXPECTED. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
RANGE FROM THE 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS THE LOWER/MIDDLE 80S OVER
SOUTHWEST MAINE AND SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
500 MB CONTINUES TO TEND BACK TOWARD A MORE +PNA
PATTERN...ALTHOUGH SKEWING MORE TOWARDS AN OMEGA BLOCK BY MID TO
LATE WEEK WITH TROUGHING FIRMLY ENSCONCED OVER JAMES BAY AND NRN
QUEBEC. THIS TREND WILL LEAD TO AN UNSETTLED PATTERN THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH THE THREAT FOR SHRA/TSRA...HIGHEST IN THE NORTHERN
ZONES. HOWEVER...FAST FLOW WILL KEEP THINGS MOVING AND PREVENT
ANY SIGNIFICANT RAIN EVENTS.

SUNDAY WILL SEE PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND CHANCE FOR SHRA/TSRA IN THE
MTNS. MON AFTERNOON INTO TUE LOOK LIKE THE BEST CHC FOR CWA WIDE
SHRA/TSRA AS TROUGHING SAGS S...AND PULLS A COLD FRONT THROUGH NRN
NEW ENGLAND. WED /THU WILL KEEP US ON THE COOLER SIDE OF THE
FRONT...AS IT STALLS ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC. SOME MTNS SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE AS UPPR LVL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD POOL WILL
BE JUST TO THE N OF THE CWA.

TEMPERATURE WILL SUNDAY WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
70S TO MID 80...BUT WILL CLIMB BACK ABOVE NORMAL ON MONDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE 80S...AND APPROACHING 90 AGAIN IN INTERIOR SRN NH.
OVERNIGHT LOWS SAT AND SUN NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO
MID 60S...AND MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE MORE MUGGY WITH LOWS IN THE 60S
TO AROUND 70. TEMPS MAY FALL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL BY MID TO
LATE WEEK. STAYED CLOSER TO THE EURO THOUGH AS THE GFS IS PROBABLY
OVERDOING THE COOL AIR INCURSION LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...OUTSIDE OF EARLY MORNING IFR/LIFR FOG...EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE THE COMING TAF PERIOD AS DRIER AIR PUSHES
INTO THE REGION BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT.

THROUGH DAYBREAK...IT/S A BATTLE BETWEEN ONGOING DRY ADVECTION AND
RESIDUAL LLEVEL MOISTURE /ENHANCED BY YESTERDAY/S RAINFALL/.  FEEL
THAT THE WORST CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR DURING THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...BEFORE IMPROVING TOWARDS DAYBREAK AS DRY ADVECTION SLOWLY
WINS OUT.  LEB/HIE LIKELY TO SEE THE MOST SIGNIFICANT FOG...BUT EVEN
HERE...EXPECT ONLY BRIEF DIPS TO LIFR/VLIFR.  FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE
SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.

FOR THE DAY TODAY...EXPECT FEW-SCT CU TO DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON...
PARTICULARLY OVER LEB/HIE.  CAN/T RULE OUT A STRAY SPRINKLE IN THESE
SPOTS...BUT NO RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED.  SKIES SHOULD PARTIALLY
CLEAR THIS EVENING.

WESTERLY WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN TO 10G18KTS FOR THE DAY TODAY BEFORE
DIMINISHING TO 5KTS OR LESS THIS EVENING.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR SAT NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY... WITH VLY FOG
POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT. SCT SHRA/TSRA WILL IMPACT MOST OF THE
TERMINALS LATE MON AND MON NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...WINDS/WAVES LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT LEVELS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD UNDER
GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS.

LONG TERM....PERSISTENT SW FLOW SUNDAY AND MONDAY COULD BRING
SWELL TO 5 FT OR SO BY SUNDAY NIGHT....WHICH WOULD LINGER THROUGH
MON NIGHT.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...ARNOTT
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...



000
FXUS61 KCAR 310830
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
430 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS NORTHERN MAINE TODAY FOLLOWED BY
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TONIGHT. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CHALLENGE THIS TERM WILL BE THE FOG THIS MORNING AND CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS MOVED TO THE E W/FOG AND LOW CLOUDS IN
ITS WAKE. SOME WEAK SURFACE RIDGING WAS TAKING PLACE PER THE 06Z
ANALYSIS ALLOWING FROM PARTIAL CLEARING ABOVE THE LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG THAT WAS IN PLACE ATTM. THE CWA SHOULD SEE SUNSHINE AFTER
12Z(8AM)AND THE FOG BURNS OFF. IT WILL REMAIN QUITE HUMID TODAY
W/DAYTIME TEMPERATURES PUSHING THROUGH THE 70S AND LOWER 80S FOR
THE NORTHERN 1/2 WHILE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS SHOULD SEE MID
80S. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE W/ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROF WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS ENOUGH MID LEVEL
FORCING TO KICK OFF SOME SHOWERS AND W/THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZING.
SB CAPES ARE FORECAST TO HIT 800-1200 JOULES W/LIS DROPPING TO -2.
SHEAR IS THERE AT THE 0-6KM LAYER(25KTS). THIS WOULD BE ENOUGH TO
ALLOW FOR TSTMS TO DEVELOP. THE LACKING FEATURES TO PREVENT
ORGANIZED CELLS IS THAT MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE LIMITED TO ABOUT
800MBS AND 850-500MB LAPSE RATES LOOK MARGINAL(6.0C/KM).
THEREFORE, DECIDED TO GO W/ISOLATED TSTMS AND CONFINED THIS TO THE
NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS WHERE BEST INSTABILITY AND FORCING
RESIDE.

FOR TONIGHT, WEAK HIGH PRES LOOKS TO RIDGE ACROSS THE CWA PROVIDING
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. OVERNIGHT LOWS EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60. CONCERNED ABOUT SOME SHALLOW
FOG, BUT W/A LIGHT WEST WIND FORECAST DECIDED AGAINST IT ATTM.
THE DAYCREW CAN ASSESS THIS FURTHER TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THIS PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH A LARGE SCALE UPPER TROF CENTERED
ACROSS THE HUDSON BAY REGION. A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES
WILL TRAVERSE NORTHERN MAINE WITHIN THE MEAN FLOW BOTH WEEKEND
DAYS, SETTING THE STAGE FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

THE QUESTION IS WHETHER OR NOT ANY STORMS ON SATURDAY HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO REACH SEVERE LIMITS. THE SHEAR AT 0-6 KM IS THERE
AND IS SHOWN TO BE IN THE RANGE OF 35-45 KTS. H5-H7 LAPSE RATES
ARE ALSO FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE AROUND 6.5-7.0 C/KM, WITH FREEZING
LEVELS EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 10 KFT. LIMITING FACTOR MAY BE AMOUNT
OF DRY AIR ALOFT AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY WITH CAPES ONLY AROUND
500-900 J/KG. THAT BEING SAID, IF STORMS DEVELOP THEY COULD TAP
IN TO STRONGER WINDS ALOFT, AND WITH AFOREMENTIONED FREEZING
LEVELS THINK HAIL WOULD ALSO BE POSSIBLE. CONSIDERING THESE
FACTORS, DECISION WAS MADE TO INCLUDE ENHANCED WORDING FOR GUTSY
WINDS AND SMALL HAIL ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS FOR
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ALSO NOTED THE NEW DAY TWO OUTLOOK FROM SPC
THAT HAS MOST OF OUR REGION IN MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE.

ANY ONGOING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD QUICKLY DIMINISH
EARLY SATURDAY EVENING AS THE UPPER IMPULSE MOVES EAST AND WE LOSE
THE HEATING. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
LATER SATURDAY NIGHT. SOME PATCHY FOG COULDN`T BE RULED OUT
OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO NEAR 60 DEGREES.

SUNDAY SHOULD SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH TEMPERATURES BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE
IN THE MID 70S NORTH AND UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 DOWN EAST, ALTHOUGH
IT WILL BE A BIT COOLER ON THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE LONG TERM. A
500 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR HUDSON BAY AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD WILL MIGRATE EASTWARD BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. WILL HAVE
TO KEEP THE MENTION OF THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THROUGH MOST OF THE
PERIOD. COULDN`T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM
EITHER BUT WILL NOT MENTION ATTM. TEMPERATURES AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD WILL BE NEAR NORMAL AND THEN FALL TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS BY
MID TO LATE WEEK AS COOLER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROF
SETTLES ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE ATTM W/SOME FOG AND LOW
CLOUDS. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO VFR BY MID MORNING
AS DRIER WORKS ACROSS THE TERMINALS. VFR LOOKS TO BE A GOOD BET
THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: AVIATORS CAN EXPECT THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH WE ARE EXPECTING
VFR TO PREVAIL MOST OF THE DAYTIME HOURS, THERE COULD BE PERIODS OF
MVFR IN ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY IN SCATTERED AFTERNOON
SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: FOG COULD HAMPER NAVIGATION THIS MORNING. DRIER AIR
WORKING ACROSS THE WATERS WILL ALLOW FOR VSBYS TO IMPROVE. WINDS
WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SW 10 TO 15 KTS. EXPECT SEAS TO RUN 3 TO
4 FT AWAY FROM THE INTRA-COASTAL ZONE.

SHORT TERM: WIND/SEAS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HEWITT
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...HEWITT/DUDA
MARINE...HEWITT/DUDA



000
FXUS61 KCAR 310830 CCA
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
430 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS NORTHERN MAINE TODAY FOLLOWED BY
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TONIGHT. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CHALLENGE THIS TERM WILL BE THE FOG THIS MORNING AND CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS MOVED TO THE E W/FOG AND LOW CLOUDS IN
ITS WAKE. SOME WEAK SURFACE RIDGING WAS TAKING PLACE PER THE 06Z
ANALYSIS ALLOWING FROM PARTIAL CLEARING ABOVE THE LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG THAT WAS IN PLACE ATTM. THE CWA SHOULD SEE SUNSHINE AFTER
12Z(8AM)AND THE FOG BURNS OFF. IT WILL REMAIN QUITE HUMID TODAY
W/DAYTIME TEMPERATURES PUSHING THROUGH THE 70S AND LOWER 80S FOR
THE NORTHERN 1/2 WHILE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS SHOULD SEE MID
80S. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE W/ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROF WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS ENOUGH MID LEVEL
FORCING TO KICK OFF SOME SHOWERS AND W/THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZING.
SB CAPES ARE FORECAST TO HIT 800-1200 JOULES W/LIS DROPPING TO -2.
SHEAR IS THERE AT THE 0-6KM LAYER(25KTS). THIS WOULD BE ENOUGH TO
ALLOW FOR TSTMS TO DEVELOP. THE LACKING FEATURES TO PREVENT
ORGANIZED CELLS IS THAT MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE LIMITED TO ABOUT
800MBS AND 850-500MB LAPSE RATES LOOK MARGINAL(6.0C/KM).
THEREFORE, DECIDED TO GO W/ISOLATED TSTMS AND CONFINED THIS TO THE
NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS WHERE BEST INSTABILITY AND FORCING
RESIDE.

FOR TONIGHT, WEAK HIGH PRES LOOKS TO RIDGE ACROSS THE CWA PROVIDING
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. OVERNIGHT LOWS EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60. CONCERNED ABOUT SOME SHALLOW
FOG, BUT W/A LIGHT WEST WIND FORECAST DECIDED AGAINST IT ATTM.
THE DAYCREW CAN ASSESS THIS FURTHER TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THIS PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH A LARGE SCALE UPPER TROF CENTERED
ACROSS THE HUDSON BAY REGION. A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES
WILL TRAVERSE NORTHERN MAINE WITHIN THE MEAN FLOW BOTH WEEKEND
DAYS, SETTING THE STAGE FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

THE QUESTION IS WHETHER OR NOT ANY STORMS ON SATURDAY HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO REACH SEVERE LIMITS. THE SHEAR AT 0-6 KM IS THERE
AND IS SHOWN TO BE IN THE RANGE OF 35-45 KTS. H5-H7 LAPSE RATES
ARE ALSO FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE AROUND 6.5-7.0 C/KM, WITH FREEZING
LEVELS EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 10 KFT. LIMITING FACTOR MAY BE AMOUNT
OF DRY AIR ALOFT AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY WITH CAPES ONLY AROUND
500-900 J/KG. THAT BEING SAID, IF STORMS DEVELOP THEY COULD TAP
IN TO STRONGER WINDS ALOFT, AND WITH AFOREMENTIONED FREEZING
LEVELS THINK HAIL WOULD ALSO BE POSSIBLE. CONSIDERING THESE
FACTORS, DECISION WAS MADE TO INCLUDE ENHANCED WORDING FOR GUSTY
WINDS AND SMALL HAIL ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS FOR
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ALSO NOTED THE NEW DAY TWO OUTLOOK FROM SPC
THAT HAS MOST OF OUR REGION IN MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE.

ANY ONGOING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD QUICKLY DIMINISH
EARLY SATURDAY EVENING AS THE UPPER IMPULSE MOVES EAST AND WE LOSE
THE HEATING. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
LATER SATURDAY NIGHT. SOME PATCHY FOG COULDN`T BE RULED OUT
OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO NEAR 60 DEGREES.

SUNDAY SHOULD SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH TEMPERATURES BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE
IN THE MID 70S NORTH AND UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 DOWN EAST, ALTHOUGH
IT WILL BE A BIT COOLER ON THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE LONG TERM. A
500 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR HUDSON BAY AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD WILL MIGRATE EASTWARD BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. WILL HAVE
TO KEEP THE MENTION OF THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THROUGH MOST OF THE
PERIOD. COULDN`T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM
EITHER BUT WILL NOT MENTION ATTM. TEMPERATURES AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD WILL BE NEAR NORMAL AND THEN FALL TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS BY
MID TO LATE WEEK AS COOLER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROF
SETTLES ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE ATTM W/SOME FOG AND LOW
CLOUDS. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO VFR BY MID MORNING
AS DRIER WORKS ACROSS THE TERMINALS. VFR LOOKS TO BE A GOOD BET
THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: AVIATORS CAN EXPECT THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH WE ARE EXPECTING
VFR TO PREVAIL MOST OF THE DAYTIME HOURS, THERE COULD BE PERIODS OF
MVFR IN ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY IN SCATTERED AFTERNOON
SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: FOG COULD HAMPER NAVIGATION THIS MORNING. DRIER AIR
WORKING ACROSS THE WATERS WILL ALLOW FOR VSBYS TO IMPROVE. WINDS
WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SW 10 TO 15 KTS. EXPECT SEAS TO RUN 3 TO
4 FT AWAY FROM THE INTRA-COASTAL ZONE.

SHORT TERM: WIND/SEAS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HEWITT
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...HEWITT/DUDA
MARINE...HEWITT/DUDA



000
FXUS61 KCAR 310830
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
430 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS NORTHERN MAINE TODAY FOLLOWED BY
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TONIGHT. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CHALLENGE THIS TERM WILL BE THE FOG THIS MORNING AND CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS MOVED TO THE E W/FOG AND LOW CLOUDS IN
ITS WAKE. SOME WEAK SURFACE RIDGING WAS TAKING PLACE PER THE 06Z
ANALYSIS ALLOWING FROM PARTIAL CLEARING ABOVE THE LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG THAT WAS IN PLACE ATTM. THE CWA SHOULD SEE SUNSHINE AFTER
12Z(8AM)AND THE FOG BURNS OFF. IT WILL REMAIN QUITE HUMID TODAY
W/DAYTIME TEMPERATURES PUSHING THROUGH THE 70S AND LOWER 80S FOR
THE NORTHERN 1/2 WHILE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS SHOULD SEE MID
80S. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE W/ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROF WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS ENOUGH MID LEVEL
FORCING TO KICK OFF SOME SHOWERS AND W/THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZING.
SB CAPES ARE FORECAST TO HIT 800-1200 JOULES W/LIS DROPPING TO -2.
SHEAR IS THERE AT THE 0-6KM LAYER(25KTS). THIS WOULD BE ENOUGH TO
ALLOW FOR TSTMS TO DEVELOP. THE LACKING FEATURES TO PREVENT
ORGANIZED CELLS IS THAT MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE LIMITED TO ABOUT
800MBS AND 850-500MB LAPSE RATES LOOK MARGINAL(6.0C/KM).
THEREFORE, DECIDED TO GO W/ISOLATED TSTMS AND CONFINED THIS TO THE
NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS WHERE BEST INSTABILITY AND FORCING
RESIDE.

FOR TONIGHT, WEAK HIGH PRES LOOKS TO RIDGE ACROSS THE CWA PROVIDING
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. OVERNIGHT LOWS EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60. CONCERNED ABOUT SOME SHALLOW
FOG, BUT W/A LIGHT WEST WIND FORECAST DECIDED AGAINST IT ATTM.
THE DAYCREW CAN ASSESS THIS FURTHER TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THIS PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH A LARGE SCALE UPPER TROF CENTERED
ACROSS THE HUDSON BAY REGION. A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES
WILL TRAVERSE NORTHERN MAINE WITHIN THE MEAN FLOW BOTH WEEKEND
DAYS, SETTING THE STAGE FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

THE QUESTION IS WHETHER OR NOT ANY STORMS ON SATURDAY HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO REACH SEVERE LIMITS. THE SHEAR AT 0-6 KM IS THERE
AND IS SHOWN TO BE IN THE RANGE OF 35-45 KTS. H5-H7 LAPSE RATES
ARE ALSO FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE AROUND 6.5-7.0 C/KM, WITH FREEZING
LEVELS EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 10 KFT. LIMITING FACTOR MAY BE AMOUNT
OF DRY AIR ALOFT AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY WITH CAPES ONLY AROUND
500-900 J/KG. THAT BEING SAID, IF STORMS DEVELOP THEY COULD TAP
IN TO STRONGER WINDS ALOFT, AND WITH AFOREMENTIONED FREEZING
LEVELS THINK HAIL WOULD ALSO BE POSSIBLE. CONSIDERING THESE
FACTORS, DECISION WAS MADE TO INCLUDE ENHANCED WORDING FOR GUTSY
WINDS AND SMALL HAIL ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS FOR
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ALSO NOTED THE NEW DAY TWO OUTLOOK FROM SPC
THAT HAS MOST OF OUR REGION IN MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE.

ANY ONGOING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD QUICKLY DIMINISH
EARLY SATURDAY EVENING AS THE UPPER IMPULSE MOVES EAST AND WE LOSE
THE HEATING. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
LATER SATURDAY NIGHT. SOME PATCHY FOG COULDN`T BE RULED OUT
OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO NEAR 60 DEGREES.

SUNDAY SHOULD SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH TEMPERATURES BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE
IN THE MID 70S NORTH AND UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 DOWN EAST, ALTHOUGH
IT WILL BE A BIT COOLER ON THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE LONG TERM. A
500 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR HUDSON BAY AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD WILL MIGRATE EASTWARD BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. WILL HAVE
TO KEEP THE MENTION OF THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THROUGH MOST OF THE
PERIOD. COULDN`T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM
EITHER BUT WILL NOT MENTION ATTM. TEMPERATURES AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD WILL BE NEAR NORMAL AND THEN FALL TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS BY
MID TO LATE WEEK AS COOLER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROF
SETTLES ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE ATTM W/SOME FOG AND LOW
CLOUDS. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO VFR BY MID MORNING
AS DRIER WORKS ACROSS THE TERMINALS. VFR LOOKS TO BE A GOOD BET
THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: AVIATORS CAN EXPECT THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH WE ARE EXPECTING
VFR TO PREVAIL MOST OF THE DAYTIME HOURS, THERE COULD BE PERIODS OF
MVFR IN ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY IN SCATTERED AFTERNOON
SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: FOG COULD HAMPER NAVIGATION THIS MORNING. DRIER AIR
WORKING ACROSS THE WATERS WILL ALLOW FOR VSBYS TO IMPROVE. WINDS
WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SW 10 TO 15 KTS. EXPECT SEAS TO RUN 3 TO
4 FT AWAY FROM THE INTRA-COASTAL ZONE.

SHORT TERM: WIND/SEAS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HEWITT
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...HEWITT/DUDA
MARINE...HEWITT/DUDA




000
FXUS61 KCAR 310830 CCA
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
430 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS NORTHERN MAINE TODAY FOLLOWED BY
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TONIGHT. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CHALLENGE THIS TERM WILL BE THE FOG THIS MORNING AND CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS MOVED TO THE E W/FOG AND LOW CLOUDS IN
ITS WAKE. SOME WEAK SURFACE RIDGING WAS TAKING PLACE PER THE 06Z
ANALYSIS ALLOWING FROM PARTIAL CLEARING ABOVE THE LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG THAT WAS IN PLACE ATTM. THE CWA SHOULD SEE SUNSHINE AFTER
12Z(8AM)AND THE FOG BURNS OFF. IT WILL REMAIN QUITE HUMID TODAY
W/DAYTIME TEMPERATURES PUSHING THROUGH THE 70S AND LOWER 80S FOR
THE NORTHERN 1/2 WHILE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS SHOULD SEE MID
80S. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE W/ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROF WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS ENOUGH MID LEVEL
FORCING TO KICK OFF SOME SHOWERS AND W/THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZING.
SB CAPES ARE FORECAST TO HIT 800-1200 JOULES W/LIS DROPPING TO -2.
SHEAR IS THERE AT THE 0-6KM LAYER(25KTS). THIS WOULD BE ENOUGH TO
ALLOW FOR TSTMS TO DEVELOP. THE LACKING FEATURES TO PREVENT
ORGANIZED CELLS IS THAT MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE LIMITED TO ABOUT
800MBS AND 850-500MB LAPSE RATES LOOK MARGINAL(6.0C/KM).
THEREFORE, DECIDED TO GO W/ISOLATED TSTMS AND CONFINED THIS TO THE
NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS WHERE BEST INSTABILITY AND FORCING
RESIDE.

FOR TONIGHT, WEAK HIGH PRES LOOKS TO RIDGE ACROSS THE CWA PROVIDING
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. OVERNIGHT LOWS EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60. CONCERNED ABOUT SOME SHALLOW
FOG, BUT W/A LIGHT WEST WIND FORECAST DECIDED AGAINST IT ATTM.
THE DAYCREW CAN ASSESS THIS FURTHER TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THIS PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH A LARGE SCALE UPPER TROF CENTERED
ACROSS THE HUDSON BAY REGION. A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES
WILL TRAVERSE NORTHERN MAINE WITHIN THE MEAN FLOW BOTH WEEKEND
DAYS, SETTING THE STAGE FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

THE QUESTION IS WHETHER OR NOT ANY STORMS ON SATURDAY HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO REACH SEVERE LIMITS. THE SHEAR AT 0-6 KM IS THERE
AND IS SHOWN TO BE IN THE RANGE OF 35-45 KTS. H5-H7 LAPSE RATES
ARE ALSO FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE AROUND 6.5-7.0 C/KM, WITH FREEZING
LEVELS EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 10 KFT. LIMITING FACTOR MAY BE AMOUNT
OF DRY AIR ALOFT AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY WITH CAPES ONLY AROUND
500-900 J/KG. THAT BEING SAID, IF STORMS DEVELOP THEY COULD TAP
IN TO STRONGER WINDS ALOFT, AND WITH AFOREMENTIONED FREEZING
LEVELS THINK HAIL WOULD ALSO BE POSSIBLE. CONSIDERING THESE
FACTORS, DECISION WAS MADE TO INCLUDE ENHANCED WORDING FOR GUSTY
WINDS AND SMALL HAIL ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS FOR
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ALSO NOTED THE NEW DAY TWO OUTLOOK FROM SPC
THAT HAS MOST OF OUR REGION IN MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE.

ANY ONGOING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD QUICKLY DIMINISH
EARLY SATURDAY EVENING AS THE UPPER IMPULSE MOVES EAST AND WE LOSE
THE HEATING. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
LATER SATURDAY NIGHT. SOME PATCHY FOG COULDN`T BE RULED OUT
OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO NEAR 60 DEGREES.

SUNDAY SHOULD SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH TEMPERATURES BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE
IN THE MID 70S NORTH AND UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 DOWN EAST, ALTHOUGH
IT WILL BE A BIT COOLER ON THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE LONG TERM. A
500 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR HUDSON BAY AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD WILL MIGRATE EASTWARD BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. WILL HAVE
TO KEEP THE MENTION OF THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THROUGH MOST OF THE
PERIOD. COULDN`T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM
EITHER BUT WILL NOT MENTION ATTM. TEMPERATURES AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD WILL BE NEAR NORMAL AND THEN FALL TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS BY
MID TO LATE WEEK AS COOLER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROF
SETTLES ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE ATTM W/SOME FOG AND LOW
CLOUDS. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO VFR BY MID MORNING
AS DRIER WORKS ACROSS THE TERMINALS. VFR LOOKS TO BE A GOOD BET
THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: AVIATORS CAN EXPECT THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH WE ARE EXPECTING
VFR TO PREVAIL MOST OF THE DAYTIME HOURS, THERE COULD BE PERIODS OF
MVFR IN ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY IN SCATTERED AFTERNOON
SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: FOG COULD HAMPER NAVIGATION THIS MORNING. DRIER AIR
WORKING ACROSS THE WATERS WILL ALLOW FOR VSBYS TO IMPROVE. WINDS
WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SW 10 TO 15 KTS. EXPECT SEAS TO RUN 3 TO
4 FT AWAY FROM THE INTRA-COASTAL ZONE.

SHORT TERM: WIND/SEAS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HEWITT
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...HEWITT/DUDA
MARINE...HEWITT/DUDA




000
FXUS61 KGYX 310754
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
354 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TODAY...PROVIDING A DAY
WITH VERY LITTLE CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS FOR A CHANGE.
IT WILL STILL BE WARM TODAY...BUT NOTICEABLY LESS HUMID THAN
PREVIOUS DAYS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
BEHIND THIS FRONT WE WILL SEE ANOTHER DROP IN TEMPERATURES AND
HUMIDITY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE ALOFT...SITUATED OVER QUEBEC...WILL
BRING A THREAT FOR SHOWERS OR STORMS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. COOLER
AIR MOVES IN THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: PATCHY DENSE FOG THROUGH EARLY
MORNING...THEN NIL.

CURRENT PATTERN: HUDSON BAY LOW HAS BECOME RE-ESTABLISHED AS OF THIS
WRITING AS POTENT SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW HAVE BECOME
VERTICALLY-STACKED AND STATIONARY IN THIS REGION. SOUTH OF THIS
FEATURE A COLD FRONT IS DRAPED FROM QUEBEC SOUTHWEST ALONG THE EAST
COAST OF THE UNITED STATES.  BEHIND THIS FEATURE...EARLY MORNING
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS SUBSTANTIAL MIDLEVEL DRYING IS TAKING
PLACE...WITH LLEVEL DRYING OCCURRING JUST A TAD SLOWER IN A BROAD
SUBSIDENT REGIME.  LOOKING UPSTREAM...ADDITIONAL LOW-MID LEVEL
MOISTURE CAN BE SEEN ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE OVER THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES PINWHEELING EAST. IN THE POST-FRONTAL
AIRMASS...A GENERALLY QUIET DAY IS EXPECTED TODAY...WITH FORECAST
CONCERNS CENTERED AROUND THE AFOREMENTIONED UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE AND
IT/S IMPLICATIONS FOR CLOUD/SHOWER POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON.

FOG: A HANDFUL OF LOCATIONS HAVE SEEN VSBYS DROP BELOW A MILE EARLY
THIS MORNING.  EXPECT VSBYS TO IMPROVE TOWARDS DAYBREAK AS LLEVEL
DRY ADVECTION CONTINUES...WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING THROUGH THE 60S AND
INTO THE UPPER 50S.

CLOUDS/PRECIP: MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE NOW CROSSING FROM ONTARIO INTO
WESTERN QUEBEC WILL RACE RAPIDLY EAST-NORTHEAST TODAY WITH AN UPTICK
IN QG FORCING FOR ASCENT SPREADING ACROSS NORTHERN NH AND NW MAINE
EARLY...BUT THEN CONTINUING EAST WITH OUR REGION IN ANTICYCLONIC
DPVA FOR THE AFTERNOON. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A NON-ZERO BUILDUP OF
CAPE DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH THE RELATIVELY COOL TEMPERATURES
ALOFT... HOWEVER...SUBSTANTIAL CAPPING WILL BE IN PLACE IN THE
H6-7 LAYER. THUS...HAVE A HARD TIME SEEING MUCH IF ANY SHRA
ACTIVITY DEVELOPING...WITH PERHAPS A SPRINKLE IN THE MOUNTAINS
DURING THE AFTERNOON. A MUCH BETTER BET IS SOME INCREASE IN
CLOUDINESS BY AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE LOWER DEWPOINTS...IT WILL BE
VERY PLEASANT DAY TO END JULY.

TEMPERATURES: H8 TEMPS ARE SLOWLY DROPPING IN THE POST-FRONTAL
AIRMASS...BUT WILL REMAIN IN THE MID TEENS...SUPPORTING HIGHS WELL
INTO THE 80S PARTICULARLY IN THE DOWNSLOPE REGIMES...WITH LESS
IMPACTS FROM ANY SEA-BREEZES GIVEN DECENT WESTERLY GRADIENT.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: THREAT FOR AN ISOLATED SEVERE
STORM PARTICULARLY NORTHERN AREAS ON SATURDAY.

PATTERN/IMPLICATIONS: CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE PATTERN
THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE COLUMN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD
WITH ONE PRIMARY DISTURBANCE IN THIS CYCLONIC FLOW PUSHING INTO THE
AREA ON SATURDAY.  FORECAST CHALLENGES PRIMARILY CENTER ON THIS
FEATURE...AND IT/S ABILITY TO BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
REGION.

FRIDAY NIGHT:  GOOD FLOW OFF THE DECK AND A DRIER EVENING AIRMASS
SUGGESTS MUCH LESS FOG POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY AFTER A DAY
THAT SHOULD BE FREE FROM RAIN.  EXPECT SOME INCREASING MID AND UPPER
LEVEL CLOUDINESS FROM UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE LATE...WITH A PARTLY CLOUDY
NIGHT ON TAP THROUGHOUT THE REGION.  WITH THE DRIER LLEVEL
AIRMASS...A COOLER NIGHT LOOKS TO BE IN STORE...WITH LOWS RANGING
FROM THE MID 50S NORTH TO THE LOWER 60S COASTAL AREAS AND SOUTHERN
NEW HAMPSHIRE.

SATURDAY: ROBUST SHORTWAVE ROTATES INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY WITH
ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS OVERSPREADING THE REGION.  THIS QG
FORCING WILL BE WORKING WITH MODESTLY INCREASED MOISTURE AS COMPARED
TO FRIDAY AS PWATS MOVE BACK TO AROUND ONE INCH /RIGHT AROUND NORMAL
FOR THE FIRST DAY OF AUGUST/. LOW AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
DECENT...ASSISTED BY MID LEVEL COOL POOL TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION.
THUS...FULLY EXPECT SHOWERS TO EXPAND ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
MORNING AS DAYTIME HEATING LEADS TO GROWING LLEVEL INSTABILITY.
AS FOR THE THUNDER THREAT...INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL AS SURFACE
DEWPOINTS STRUGGLE BACK TO THE 60 DEGREE MARK. IN ADDITION...THERE
IS PLENTY OF DRY AIR ALOFT...WHICH...WHEN COMBINED WITH STOUT DEEP
SHEAR /0-6KM BULK SHEAR 40-50 KTS/ COULD POTENTIALLY PORTEND A
HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT DUE TO ENTRAINMENT. THAT SAID...WITH ENOUGH
INSTABILITY...ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WOULD HAVE ACCESS TO AMPLE
SHEAR AND LOWER FREEZING LEVELS THAN OF LATE...AND THUS A
CONDITIONAL SEVERE THREAT. BEST MOISTURE RESIDES FURTHER
NORTH...WHICH AGREES WELL WITH SPC/S INTRODUCTION OF A MARGINAL
RISK OVER COOS COUNTY NH AND MUCH OF NORTHERN MAINE. WILL
INTRODUCE MENTION OF THIS POTENTIAL IN THE MORNING HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE A TAD COOLER THAN ON
FRIDAY...PARTICULARLY FURTHER NORTH WHERE THE GREATEST CLOUD COVER
AND PRECIPITATION COVERAGE IS EXPECTED. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
RANGE FROM THE 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS THE LOWER/MIDDLE 80S OVER
SOUTHWEST MAINE AND SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
500 MB CONTINUES TO TEND BACK TOWARD A MORE +PNA
PATTERN...ALTHOUGH SKEWING MORE TOWARDS AN OMEGA BLOCK BY MID TO
LATE WEEK WITH TROUGHING FIRMLY ENSCONCED OVER JAMES BAY AND NRN
QUEBEC. THIS TREND WILL LEAD TO AN UNSETTLED PATTERN THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH THE THREAT FOR SHRA/TSRA...HIGHEST IN THE NORTHERN
ZONES. HOWEVER...FAST FLOW WILL KEEP THINGS MOVING AND PREVENT
ANY SIGNIFICANT RAIN EVENTS.

SUNDAY WILL SEE PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND CHANCE FOR SHRA/TSRA IN THE
MTNS. MON AFTERNOON INTO TUE LOOK LIKE THE BEST CHC FOR CWA WIDE
SHRA/TSRA AS TROUGHING SAGS S...AND PULLS A COLD FRONT THROUGH NRN
NEW ENGLAND. WED /THU WILL KEEP US ON THE COOLER SIDE OF THE
FRONT...AS IT STALLS ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC. SOME MTNS SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE AS UPPR LVL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD POOL WILL
BE JUST TO THE N OF THE CWA.

TEMPERATURE WILL SUNDAY WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
70S TO MID 80...BUT WILL CLIMB BACK ABOVE NORMAL ON MONDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE 80S...AND APPROACHING 90 AGAIN IN INTERIOR SRN NH.
OVERNIGHT LOWS SAT AND SUN NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO
MID 60S...AND MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE MORE MUGGY WITH LOWS IN THE 60S
TO AROUND 70. TEMPS MAY FALL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL BY MID TO
LATE WEEK. STAYED CLOSER TO THE EURO THOUGH AS THE GFS IS PROBABLY
OVERDOING THE COOL AIR INCURSION LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...OUTSIDE OF EARLY MORNING IFR/LIFR FOG...EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE THE COMING TAF PERIOD AS DRIER AIR PUSHES
INTO THE REGION BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT.

THROUGH DAYBREAK...IT/S A BATTLE BETWEEN ONGOING DRY ADVECTION AND
RESIDUAL LLEVEL MOISTURE /ENHANCED BY YESTERDAY/S RAINFALL/.  FEEL
THAT THE WORST CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR DURING THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...BEFORE IMPROVING TOWARDS DAYBREAK AS DRY ADVECTION SLOWLY
WINS OUT.  LEB/HIE LIKELY TO SEE THE MOST SIGNIFICANT FOG...BUT EVEN
HERE...EXPECT ONLY BRIEF DIPS TO LIFR/VLIFR.  FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE
SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.

FOR THE DAY TODAY...EXPECT FEW-SCT CU TO DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON...
PARTICULARLY OVER LEB/HIE.  CAN/T RULE OUT A STRAY SPRINKLE IN THESE
SPOTS...BUT NO RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED.  SKIES SHOULD PARTIALLY
CLEAR THIS EVENING.

WESTERLY WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN TO 10G18KTS FOR THE DAY TODAY BEFORE
DIMINISHING TO 5KTS OR LESS THIS EVENING.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR SAT NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY... WITH VLY FOG
POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT. SCT SHRA/TSRA WILL IMPACT MOST OF THE
TERMINALS LATE MON AND MON NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...WINDS/WAVES LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT LEVELS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD UNDER
GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS.

LONG TERM....PERSISTENT SW FLOW SUNDAY AND MONDAY COULD BRING
SWELL TO 5 FT OR SO BY SUNDAY NIGHT....WHICH WOULD LINGER THROUGH
MON NIGHT.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CEMPA
NEAR TERM...ARNOTT
SHORT TERM...ARNOTT
LONG TERM...CEMPA
AVIATION...ARNOTT/CEMPA
MARINE...ARNOTT/CEMPA



000
FXUS61 KGYX 310754
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
354 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TODAY...PROVIDING A DAY
WITH VERY LITTLE CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS FOR A CHANGE.
IT WILL STILL BE WARM TODAY...BUT NOTICEABLY LESS HUMID THAN
PREVIOUS DAYS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
BEHIND THIS FRONT WE WILL SEE ANOTHER DROP IN TEMPERATURES AND
HUMIDITY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE ALOFT...SITUATED OVER QUEBEC...WILL
BRING A THREAT FOR SHOWERS OR STORMS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. COOLER
AIR MOVES IN THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: PATCHY DENSE FOG THROUGH EARLY
MORNING...THEN NIL.

CURRENT PATTERN: HUDSON BAY LOW HAS BECOME RE-ESTABLISHED AS OF THIS
WRITING AS POTENT SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW HAVE BECOME
VERTICALLY-STACKED AND STATIONARY IN THIS REGION. SOUTH OF THIS
FEATURE A COLD FRONT IS DRAPED FROM QUEBEC SOUTHWEST ALONG THE EAST
COAST OF THE UNITED STATES.  BEHIND THIS FEATURE...EARLY MORNING
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS SUBSTANTIAL MIDLEVEL DRYING IS TAKING
PLACE...WITH LLEVEL DRYING OCCURRING JUST A TAD SLOWER IN A BROAD
SUBSIDENT REGIME.  LOOKING UPSTREAM...ADDITIONAL LOW-MID LEVEL
MOISTURE CAN BE SEEN ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE OVER THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES PINWHEELING EAST. IN THE POST-FRONTAL
AIRMASS...A GENERALLY QUIET DAY IS EXPECTED TODAY...WITH FORECAST
CONCERNS CENTERED AROUND THE AFOREMENTIONED UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE AND
IT/S IMPLICATIONS FOR CLOUD/SHOWER POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON.

FOG: A HANDFUL OF LOCATIONS HAVE SEEN VSBYS DROP BELOW A MILE EARLY
THIS MORNING.  EXPECT VSBYS TO IMPROVE TOWARDS DAYBREAK AS LLEVEL
DRY ADVECTION CONTINUES...WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING THROUGH THE 60S AND
INTO THE UPPER 50S.

CLOUDS/PRECIP: MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE NOW CROSSING FROM ONTARIO INTO
WESTERN QUEBEC WILL RACE RAPIDLY EAST-NORTHEAST TODAY WITH AN UPTICK
IN QG FORCING FOR ASCENT SPREADING ACROSS NORTHERN NH AND NW MAINE
EARLY...BUT THEN CONTINUING EAST WITH OUR REGION IN ANTICYCLONIC
DPVA FOR THE AFTERNOON. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A NON-ZERO BUILDUP OF
CAPE DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH THE RELATIVELY COOL TEMPERATURES
ALOFT... HOWEVER...SUBSTANTIAL CAPPING WILL BE IN PLACE IN THE
H6-7 LAYER. THUS...HAVE A HARD TIME SEEING MUCH IF ANY SHRA
ACTIVITY DEVELOPING...WITH PERHAPS A SPRINKLE IN THE MOUNTAINS
DURING THE AFTERNOON. A MUCH BETTER BET IS SOME INCREASE IN
CLOUDINESS BY AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE LOWER DEWPOINTS...IT WILL BE
VERY PLEASANT DAY TO END JULY.

TEMPERATURES: H8 TEMPS ARE SLOWLY DROPPING IN THE POST-FRONTAL
AIRMASS...BUT WILL REMAIN IN THE MID TEENS...SUPPORTING HIGHS WELL
INTO THE 80S PARTICULARLY IN THE DOWNSLOPE REGIMES...WITH LESS
IMPACTS FROM ANY SEA-BREEZES GIVEN DECENT WESTERLY GRADIENT.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: THREAT FOR AN ISOLATED SEVERE
STORM PARTICULARLY NORTHERN AREAS ON SATURDAY.

PATTERN/IMPLICATIONS: CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE PATTERN
THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE COLUMN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD
WITH ONE PRIMARY DISTURBANCE IN THIS CYCLONIC FLOW PUSHING INTO THE
AREA ON SATURDAY.  FORECAST CHALLENGES PRIMARILY CENTER ON THIS
FEATURE...AND IT/S ABILITY TO BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
REGION.

FRIDAY NIGHT:  GOOD FLOW OFF THE DECK AND A DRIER EVENING AIRMASS
SUGGESTS MUCH LESS FOG POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY AFTER A DAY
THAT SHOULD BE FREE FROM RAIN.  EXPECT SOME INCREASING MID AND UPPER
LEVEL CLOUDINESS FROM UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE LATE...WITH A PARTLY CLOUDY
NIGHT ON TAP THROUGHOUT THE REGION.  WITH THE DRIER LLEVEL
AIRMASS...A COOLER NIGHT LOOKS TO BE IN STORE...WITH LOWS RANGING
FROM THE MID 50S NORTH TO THE LOWER 60S COASTAL AREAS AND SOUTHERN
NEW HAMPSHIRE.

SATURDAY: ROBUST SHORTWAVE ROTATES INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY WITH
ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS OVERSPREADING THE REGION.  THIS QG
FORCING WILL BE WORKING WITH MODESTLY INCREASED MOISTURE AS COMPARED
TO FRIDAY AS PWATS MOVE BACK TO AROUND ONE INCH /RIGHT AROUND NORMAL
FOR THE FIRST DAY OF AUGUST/. LOW AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
DECENT...ASSISTED BY MID LEVEL COOL POOL TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION.
THUS...FULLY EXPECT SHOWERS TO EXPAND ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
MORNING AS DAYTIME HEATING LEADS TO GROWING LLEVEL INSTABILITY.
AS FOR THE THUNDER THREAT...INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL AS SURFACE
DEWPOINTS STRUGGLE BACK TO THE 60 DEGREE MARK. IN ADDITION...THERE
IS PLENTY OF DRY AIR ALOFT...WHICH...WHEN COMBINED WITH STOUT DEEP
SHEAR /0-6KM BULK SHEAR 40-50 KTS/ COULD POTENTIALLY PORTEND A
HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT DUE TO ENTRAINMENT. THAT SAID...WITH ENOUGH
INSTABILITY...ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WOULD HAVE ACCESS TO AMPLE
SHEAR AND LOWER FREEZING LEVELS THAN OF LATE...AND THUS A
CONDITIONAL SEVERE THREAT. BEST MOISTURE RESIDES FURTHER
NORTH...WHICH AGREES WELL WITH SPC/S INTRODUCTION OF A MARGINAL
RISK OVER COOS COUNTY NH AND MUCH OF NORTHERN MAINE. WILL
INTRODUCE MENTION OF THIS POTENTIAL IN THE MORNING HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE A TAD COOLER THAN ON
FRIDAY...PARTICULARLY FURTHER NORTH WHERE THE GREATEST CLOUD COVER
AND PRECIPITATION COVERAGE IS EXPECTED. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
RANGE FROM THE 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS THE LOWER/MIDDLE 80S OVER
SOUTHWEST MAINE AND SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
500 MB CONTINUES TO TEND BACK TOWARD A MORE +PNA
PATTERN...ALTHOUGH SKEWING MORE TOWARDS AN OMEGA BLOCK BY MID TO
LATE WEEK WITH TROUGHING FIRMLY ENSCONCED OVER JAMES BAY AND NRN
QUEBEC. THIS TREND WILL LEAD TO AN UNSETTLED PATTERN THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH THE THREAT FOR SHRA/TSRA...HIGHEST IN THE NORTHERN
ZONES. HOWEVER...FAST FLOW WILL KEEP THINGS MOVING AND PREVENT
ANY SIGNIFICANT RAIN EVENTS.

SUNDAY WILL SEE PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND CHANCE FOR SHRA/TSRA IN THE
MTNS. MON AFTERNOON INTO TUE LOOK LIKE THE BEST CHC FOR CWA WIDE
SHRA/TSRA AS TROUGHING SAGS S...AND PULLS A COLD FRONT THROUGH NRN
NEW ENGLAND. WED /THU WILL KEEP US ON THE COOLER SIDE OF THE
FRONT...AS IT STALLS ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC. SOME MTNS SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE AS UPPR LVL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD POOL WILL
BE JUST TO THE N OF THE CWA.

TEMPERATURE WILL SUNDAY WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
70S TO MID 80...BUT WILL CLIMB BACK ABOVE NORMAL ON MONDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE 80S...AND APPROACHING 90 AGAIN IN INTERIOR SRN NH.
OVERNIGHT LOWS SAT AND SUN NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO
MID 60S...AND MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE MORE MUGGY WITH LOWS IN THE 60S
TO AROUND 70. TEMPS MAY FALL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL BY MID TO
LATE WEEK. STAYED CLOSER TO THE EURO THOUGH AS THE GFS IS PROBABLY
OVERDOING THE COOL AIR INCURSION LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...OUTSIDE OF EARLY MORNING IFR/LIFR FOG...EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE THE COMING TAF PERIOD AS DRIER AIR PUSHES
INTO THE REGION BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT.

THROUGH DAYBREAK...IT/S A BATTLE BETWEEN ONGOING DRY ADVECTION AND
RESIDUAL LLEVEL MOISTURE /ENHANCED BY YESTERDAY/S RAINFALL/.  FEEL
THAT THE WORST CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR DURING THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...BEFORE IMPROVING TOWARDS DAYBREAK AS DRY ADVECTION SLOWLY
WINS OUT.  LEB/HIE LIKELY TO SEE THE MOST SIGNIFICANT FOG...BUT EVEN
HERE...EXPECT ONLY BRIEF DIPS TO LIFR/VLIFR.  FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE
SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.

FOR THE DAY TODAY...EXPECT FEW-SCT CU TO DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON...
PARTICULARLY OVER LEB/HIE.  CAN/T RULE OUT A STRAY SPRINKLE IN THESE
SPOTS...BUT NO RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED.  SKIES SHOULD PARTIALLY
CLEAR THIS EVENING.

WESTERLY WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN TO 10G18KTS FOR THE DAY TODAY BEFORE
DIMINISHING TO 5KTS OR LESS THIS EVENING.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR SAT NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY... WITH VLY FOG
POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT. SCT SHRA/TSRA WILL IMPACT MOST OF THE
TERMINALS LATE MON AND MON NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...WINDS/WAVES LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT LEVELS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD UNDER
GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS.

LONG TERM....PERSISTENT SW FLOW SUNDAY AND MONDAY COULD BRING
SWELL TO 5 FT OR SO BY SUNDAY NIGHT....WHICH WOULD LINGER THROUGH
MON NIGHT.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CEMPA
NEAR TERM...ARNOTT
SHORT TERM...ARNOTT
LONG TERM...CEMPA
AVIATION...ARNOTT/CEMPA
MARINE...ARNOTT/CEMPA




000
FXUS61 KGYX 310754
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
354 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TODAY...PROVIDING A DAY
WITH VERY LITTLE CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS FOR A CHANGE.
IT WILL STILL BE WARM TODAY...BUT NOTICEABLY LESS HUMID THAN
PREVIOUS DAYS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
BEHIND THIS FRONT WE WILL SEE ANOTHER DROP IN TEMPERATURES AND
HUMIDITY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE ALOFT...SITUATED OVER QUEBEC...WILL
BRING A THREAT FOR SHOWERS OR STORMS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. COOLER
AIR MOVES IN THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: PATCHY DENSE FOG THROUGH EARLY
MORNING...THEN NIL.

CURRENT PATTERN: HUDSON BAY LOW HAS BECOME RE-ESTABLISHED AS OF THIS
WRITING AS POTENT SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW HAVE BECOME
VERTICALLY-STACKED AND STATIONARY IN THIS REGION. SOUTH OF THIS
FEATURE A COLD FRONT IS DRAPED FROM QUEBEC SOUTHWEST ALONG THE EAST
COAST OF THE UNITED STATES.  BEHIND THIS FEATURE...EARLY MORNING
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS SUBSTANTIAL MIDLEVEL DRYING IS TAKING
PLACE...WITH LLEVEL DRYING OCCURRING JUST A TAD SLOWER IN A BROAD
SUBSIDENT REGIME.  LOOKING UPSTREAM...ADDITIONAL LOW-MID LEVEL
MOISTURE CAN BE SEEN ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE OVER THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES PINWHEELING EAST. IN THE POST-FRONTAL
AIRMASS...A GENERALLY QUIET DAY IS EXPECTED TODAY...WITH FORECAST
CONCERNS CENTERED AROUND THE AFOREMENTIONED UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE AND
IT/S IMPLICATIONS FOR CLOUD/SHOWER POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON.

FOG: A HANDFUL OF LOCATIONS HAVE SEEN VSBYS DROP BELOW A MILE EARLY
THIS MORNING.  EXPECT VSBYS TO IMPROVE TOWARDS DAYBREAK AS LLEVEL
DRY ADVECTION CONTINUES...WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING THROUGH THE 60S AND
INTO THE UPPER 50S.

CLOUDS/PRECIP: MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE NOW CROSSING FROM ONTARIO INTO
WESTERN QUEBEC WILL RACE RAPIDLY EAST-NORTHEAST TODAY WITH AN UPTICK
IN QG FORCING FOR ASCENT SPREADING ACROSS NORTHERN NH AND NW MAINE
EARLY...BUT THEN CONTINUING EAST WITH OUR REGION IN ANTICYCLONIC
DPVA FOR THE AFTERNOON. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A NON-ZERO BUILDUP OF
CAPE DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH THE RELATIVELY COOL TEMPERATURES
ALOFT... HOWEVER...SUBSTANTIAL CAPPING WILL BE IN PLACE IN THE
H6-7 LAYER. THUS...HAVE A HARD TIME SEEING MUCH IF ANY SHRA
ACTIVITY DEVELOPING...WITH PERHAPS A SPRINKLE IN THE MOUNTAINS
DURING THE AFTERNOON. A MUCH BETTER BET IS SOME INCREASE IN
CLOUDINESS BY AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE LOWER DEWPOINTS...IT WILL BE
VERY PLEASANT DAY TO END JULY.

TEMPERATURES: H8 TEMPS ARE SLOWLY DROPPING IN THE POST-FRONTAL
AIRMASS...BUT WILL REMAIN IN THE MID TEENS...SUPPORTING HIGHS WELL
INTO THE 80S PARTICULARLY IN THE DOWNSLOPE REGIMES...WITH LESS
IMPACTS FROM ANY SEA-BREEZES GIVEN DECENT WESTERLY GRADIENT.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: THREAT FOR AN ISOLATED SEVERE
STORM PARTICULARLY NORTHERN AREAS ON SATURDAY.

PATTERN/IMPLICATIONS: CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE PATTERN
THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE COLUMN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD
WITH ONE PRIMARY DISTURBANCE IN THIS CYCLONIC FLOW PUSHING INTO THE
AREA ON SATURDAY.  FORECAST CHALLENGES PRIMARILY CENTER ON THIS
FEATURE...AND IT/S ABILITY TO BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
REGION.

FRIDAY NIGHT:  GOOD FLOW OFF THE DECK AND A DRIER EVENING AIRMASS
SUGGESTS MUCH LESS FOG POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY AFTER A DAY
THAT SHOULD BE FREE FROM RAIN.  EXPECT SOME INCREASING MID AND UPPER
LEVEL CLOUDINESS FROM UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE LATE...WITH A PARTLY CLOUDY
NIGHT ON TAP THROUGHOUT THE REGION.  WITH THE DRIER LLEVEL
AIRMASS...A COOLER NIGHT LOOKS TO BE IN STORE...WITH LOWS RANGING
FROM THE MID 50S NORTH TO THE LOWER 60S COASTAL AREAS AND SOUTHERN
NEW HAMPSHIRE.

SATURDAY: ROBUST SHORTWAVE ROTATES INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY WITH
ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS OVERSPREADING THE REGION.  THIS QG
FORCING WILL BE WORKING WITH MODESTLY INCREASED MOISTURE AS COMPARED
TO FRIDAY AS PWATS MOVE BACK TO AROUND ONE INCH /RIGHT AROUND NORMAL
FOR THE FIRST DAY OF AUGUST/. LOW AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
DECENT...ASSISTED BY MID LEVEL COOL POOL TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION.
THUS...FULLY EXPECT SHOWERS TO EXPAND ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
MORNING AS DAYTIME HEATING LEADS TO GROWING LLEVEL INSTABILITY.
AS FOR THE THUNDER THREAT...INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL AS SURFACE
DEWPOINTS STRUGGLE BACK TO THE 60 DEGREE MARK. IN ADDITION...THERE
IS PLENTY OF DRY AIR ALOFT...WHICH...WHEN COMBINED WITH STOUT DEEP
SHEAR /0-6KM BULK SHEAR 40-50 KTS/ COULD POTENTIALLY PORTEND A
HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT DUE TO ENTRAINMENT. THAT SAID...WITH ENOUGH
INSTABILITY...ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WOULD HAVE ACCESS TO AMPLE
SHEAR AND LOWER FREEZING LEVELS THAN OF LATE...AND THUS A
CONDITIONAL SEVERE THREAT. BEST MOISTURE RESIDES FURTHER
NORTH...WHICH AGREES WELL WITH SPC/S INTRODUCTION OF A MARGINAL
RISK OVER COOS COUNTY NH AND MUCH OF NORTHERN MAINE. WILL
INTRODUCE MENTION OF THIS POTENTIAL IN THE MORNING HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE A TAD COOLER THAN ON
FRIDAY...PARTICULARLY FURTHER NORTH WHERE THE GREATEST CLOUD COVER
AND PRECIPITATION COVERAGE IS EXPECTED. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
RANGE FROM THE 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS THE LOWER/MIDDLE 80S OVER
SOUTHWEST MAINE AND SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
500 MB CONTINUES TO TEND BACK TOWARD A MORE +PNA
PATTERN...ALTHOUGH SKEWING MORE TOWARDS AN OMEGA BLOCK BY MID TO
LATE WEEK WITH TROUGHING FIRMLY ENSCONCED OVER JAMES BAY AND NRN
QUEBEC. THIS TREND WILL LEAD TO AN UNSETTLED PATTERN THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH THE THREAT FOR SHRA/TSRA...HIGHEST IN THE NORTHERN
ZONES. HOWEVER...FAST FLOW WILL KEEP THINGS MOVING AND PREVENT
ANY SIGNIFICANT RAIN EVENTS.

SUNDAY WILL SEE PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND CHANCE FOR SHRA/TSRA IN THE
MTNS. MON AFTERNOON INTO TUE LOOK LIKE THE BEST CHC FOR CWA WIDE
SHRA/TSRA AS TROUGHING SAGS S...AND PULLS A COLD FRONT THROUGH NRN
NEW ENGLAND. WED /THU WILL KEEP US ON THE COOLER SIDE OF THE
FRONT...AS IT STALLS ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC. SOME MTNS SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE AS UPPR LVL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD POOL WILL
BE JUST TO THE N OF THE CWA.

TEMPERATURE WILL SUNDAY WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
70S TO MID 80...BUT WILL CLIMB BACK ABOVE NORMAL ON MONDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE 80S...AND APPROACHING 90 AGAIN IN INTERIOR SRN NH.
OVERNIGHT LOWS SAT AND SUN NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO
MID 60S...AND MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE MORE MUGGY WITH LOWS IN THE 60S
TO AROUND 70. TEMPS MAY FALL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL BY MID TO
LATE WEEK. STAYED CLOSER TO THE EURO THOUGH AS THE GFS IS PROBABLY
OVERDOING THE COOL AIR INCURSION LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...OUTSIDE OF EARLY MORNING IFR/LIFR FOG...EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE THE COMING TAF PERIOD AS DRIER AIR PUSHES
INTO THE REGION BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT.

THROUGH DAYBREAK...IT/S A BATTLE BETWEEN ONGOING DRY ADVECTION AND
RESIDUAL LLEVEL MOISTURE /ENHANCED BY YESTERDAY/S RAINFALL/.  FEEL
THAT THE WORST CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR DURING THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...BEFORE IMPROVING TOWARDS DAYBREAK AS DRY ADVECTION SLOWLY
WINS OUT.  LEB/HIE LIKELY TO SEE THE MOST SIGNIFICANT FOG...BUT EVEN
HERE...EXPECT ONLY BRIEF DIPS TO LIFR/VLIFR.  FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE
SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.

FOR THE DAY TODAY...EXPECT FEW-SCT CU TO DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON...
PARTICULARLY OVER LEB/HIE.  CAN/T RULE OUT A STRAY SPRINKLE IN THESE
SPOTS...BUT NO RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED.  SKIES SHOULD PARTIALLY
CLEAR THIS EVENING.

WESTERLY WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN TO 10G18KTS FOR THE DAY TODAY BEFORE
DIMINISHING TO 5KTS OR LESS THIS EVENING.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR SAT NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY... WITH VLY FOG
POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT. SCT SHRA/TSRA WILL IMPACT MOST OF THE
TERMINALS LATE MON AND MON NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...WINDS/WAVES LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT LEVELS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD UNDER
GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS.

LONG TERM....PERSISTENT SW FLOW SUNDAY AND MONDAY COULD BRING
SWELL TO 5 FT OR SO BY SUNDAY NIGHT....WHICH WOULD LINGER THROUGH
MON NIGHT.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CEMPA
NEAR TERM...ARNOTT
SHORT TERM...ARNOTT
LONG TERM...CEMPA
AVIATION...ARNOTT/CEMPA
MARINE...ARNOTT/CEMPA




000
FXUS61 KGYX 310525 AAC
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
125 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY. A BROAD SHALLOW
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT
AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH
OF NEW ENGLAND. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON MONDAY AND WILL
SLOWLY CROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
LINGER OVER THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
120 AM UPDATE...LITTLE CHANGES NEEDED THIS HOUR OUTSIDE OF
REMOVING ANY LOW POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AND EXPANDING
PATCHY FOG AREA SOMEWHAT FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BEFORE DRY
ADVECTION SHOULD BEGIN WINNING THE BATTLE...AND SHRINKING THE FOG
AREA THROGH DAYBREAK. FINALLY...BOOSTED WINDS OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN GIVEN OVERNIGHT OBSERVATIONS FROM MWN.

UPDATE...REMAINING STRONGER TSTMS THAT MANAGED TO TAP LINGERING
THETA-E AXIS ARE EXITING THE FORECAST AREA TO THE E. DIMINISHING
INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE IN THIS AREA IS ALLOWING STORMS TO
GRADUALLY WEAKEN WITH EWD MOVEMENT.

CLEARING IS WORKING IN QUICKLY BEHIND THE SHOWERS/STORMS. THE WET
GROUND AND COOLING TEMPS WILL PROMOTE FOG IN LOW LYING AREAS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AT 18Z THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WAS ENTERING
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. NWS DOPPLER RADAR MOSAIC SHOWED A LINE OF
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...WITH WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION FORMING OUT AHEAD OF THE
MAIN LINE OF CONVECTION. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW MID COAST
MAINE LOCATIONS...TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE 80S AND LOWER
90S AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH DEWPOINTS RANGING FROM THE MID 60S TO
LOWER 70S. WHILE SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETERS ARE NOT
IMPRESSIVE...CAN`T ENTIRELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED CELL OR TWO WITH
STRONG WIND GUSTS AS THE CONVECTION MOVES INTO OUR AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. PRECIPITATION WILL END FROM WEST TO
EAST THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT SWEEPS EASTWARD...WITH ANY
LINGERING ACTIVITY SLIDING OFFSHORE BY MIDNIGHT ALONG WITH THE
FRONT. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM UPPER 50S TO MID 60S WITH
PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
ON FRIDAY...WESTERLY FLOW AND WEAK RIDGING SHOULD PROVIDE A
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. HOWEVER...CAN`T ENTIRELY RULE OUT A
BRIEF SHOWER IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN NEAR OUR INTERNATIONAL BORDER.
IT`LL BE LESS HUMID WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S. PARTLY CLOUDY
FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH A LOW CHANCE OF A SHOWER AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR
FAR NORTHERN AND WESTERN SECTIONS AHEAD OF NEXT DISTURBANCE. LOWS
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO THE LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BROAD SHALLOW SURFACE TROUGH REFLECTING A LARGE CLOSED LOW
OVER EAST CENTRAL CANADA WILL SETTLE IN FOR THE WEEKEND. A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH IN FROM THE WEST SATURDAY AFTERNOON
KICKING OFF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. GOOD SHEAR WILL BE IN
PLACE SO THE POTENTIAL WILL BE THERE FOR SOME SEVERE STORMS.
HIGH TEMPS ON SATURDAY WILL BE FROM THE MID 70S TO MID 80S.

THE FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS WILL END
DURING THE EVENING. LOOKING FOR PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL BRING INSTABILITY AND SOME SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTHERN ZONES ON SUNDAY. CAPES WILL
BE RATHER MARGINAL BUT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE ISOLATED
CONVECTION. REMAINDER OF THE REGION WILL SEE A MIX OF SUN AND
CLOUDS. HIGHS ONCE AGAIN WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO MID 80S.

ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE ROTATING AROUND THE CLOSED LOW WILL
BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT BUT THESE WILL BE BRIEF
AND WIDELY SCATTERED AND WILL PUSH EAST OF THE REGION BY MONDAY
MORNING.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION MONDAY. AREA MOST LIKELY
TO SEE CONVECTION WOULD BE NORTHWEST ZONES. EXPECT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES
IN FROM THE WEST. SLOW MOVING FRONT WILL FINALLY CROSS THE AREA ON
TUESDAY. SHOULD BE ENOUGH LINGERING INSTABILITY TO KICK OFF MORE
CONVECTION BEFORE DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR PUSHES IN FROM THE
WEST IN THE AFTERNOON.

CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL SETTLE INTO THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY BRINGING MUCH COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION. COOL AND
UNSTABLE AIR WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A LOT DAYTIME CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE SHOWERS. HIGH WILL AVERAGE OUT BELOW NORMAL FOR MUCH OF
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/: OUTSIDE OF EARLY MORNING
IFR/LIFR FOG...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE THE COMING TAF
PERIOD AS DRIER AIR PUSHES INTO THE REGION BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD
FRONT.

THROUGH DAYBREAK...IT/S A BATTLE BETWEEN ONGOING DRY ADVECTION AND
RESIDUAL LLEVEL MOISTURE /ENHANCED BY YESTERDAY/S RAINFALL/.  FEEL
THAT THE WORST CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR DURING THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...BEFORE IMPROVING TOWARDS DAYBREAK AS DRY ADVECTION SLOWLY
WINS OUT.  LEB/HIE LIKELY TO SEE THE MOST SIGNIFICANT FOG...BUT EVEN
HERE...EXPECT ONLY BRIEF DIPS TO LIFR/VLIFR.  FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE
SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.

FOR THE DAY TODAY...EXPECT FEW-SCT CU TO DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON...
PARTICULARLY OVER LEB/HIE.  CAN/T RULE OUT A STRAY SPRINKLE IN THESE
SPOTS...BUT NO RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED.  SKIES SHOULD PARTIALLY
CLEAR THIS EVENING.

WESTERLY WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN TO 10G18KTS FOR THE DAY TODAY BEFORE
DIMINISHING TO 5KTS OR LESS THIS EVENING.

LONG TERM...VFR SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR
CEILINGS AND VSBY IN SCATTERED DAYTIME CONVECTION.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...THE OUTER WATERS BRIEFLY APPROACH
20 KT AND 5 FT FOR A FEW HOURS TONIGHT WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLD.

LONG TERM...NO PROBLEMS NOTED.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...ARNOTT/LEGRO
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...ARNOTT
MARINE...




000
FXUS61 KGYX 310525 AAC
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
125 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY. A BROAD SHALLOW
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT
AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH
OF NEW ENGLAND. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON MONDAY AND WILL
SLOWLY CROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
LINGER OVER THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
120 AM UPDATE...LITTLE CHANGES NEEDED THIS HOUR OUTSIDE OF
REMOVING ANY LOW POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AND EXPANDING
PATCHY FOG AREA SOMEWHAT FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BEFORE DRY
ADVECTION SHOULD BEGIN WINNING THE BATTLE...AND SHRINKING THE FOG
AREA THROGH DAYBREAK. FINALLY...BOOSTED WINDS OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN GIVEN OVERNIGHT OBSERVATIONS FROM MWN.

UPDATE...REMAINING STRONGER TSTMS THAT MANAGED TO TAP LINGERING
THETA-E AXIS ARE EXITING THE FORECAST AREA TO THE E. DIMINISHING
INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE IN THIS AREA IS ALLOWING STORMS TO
GRADUALLY WEAKEN WITH EWD MOVEMENT.

CLEARING IS WORKING IN QUICKLY BEHIND THE SHOWERS/STORMS. THE WET
GROUND AND COOLING TEMPS WILL PROMOTE FOG IN LOW LYING AREAS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AT 18Z THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WAS ENTERING
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. NWS DOPPLER RADAR MOSAIC SHOWED A LINE OF
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...WITH WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION FORMING OUT AHEAD OF THE
MAIN LINE OF CONVECTION. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW MID COAST
MAINE LOCATIONS...TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE 80S AND LOWER
90S AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH DEWPOINTS RANGING FROM THE MID 60S TO
LOWER 70S. WHILE SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETERS ARE NOT
IMPRESSIVE...CAN`T ENTIRELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED CELL OR TWO WITH
STRONG WIND GUSTS AS THE CONVECTION MOVES INTO OUR AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. PRECIPITATION WILL END FROM WEST TO
EAST THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT SWEEPS EASTWARD...WITH ANY
LINGERING ACTIVITY SLIDING OFFSHORE BY MIDNIGHT ALONG WITH THE
FRONT. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM UPPER 50S TO MID 60S WITH
PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
ON FRIDAY...WESTERLY FLOW AND WEAK RIDGING SHOULD PROVIDE A
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. HOWEVER...CAN`T ENTIRELY RULE OUT A
BRIEF SHOWER IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN NEAR OUR INTERNATIONAL BORDER.
IT`LL BE LESS HUMID WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S. PARTLY CLOUDY
FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH A LOW CHANCE OF A SHOWER AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR
FAR NORTHERN AND WESTERN SECTIONS AHEAD OF NEXT DISTURBANCE. LOWS
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO THE LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BROAD SHALLOW SURFACE TROUGH REFLECTING A LARGE CLOSED LOW
OVER EAST CENTRAL CANADA WILL SETTLE IN FOR THE WEEKEND. A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH IN FROM THE WEST SATURDAY AFTERNOON
KICKING OFF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. GOOD SHEAR WILL BE IN
PLACE SO THE POTENTIAL WILL BE THERE FOR SOME SEVERE STORMS.
HIGH TEMPS ON SATURDAY WILL BE FROM THE MID 70S TO MID 80S.

THE FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS WILL END
DURING THE EVENING. LOOKING FOR PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL BRING INSTABILITY AND SOME SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTHERN ZONES ON SUNDAY. CAPES WILL
BE RATHER MARGINAL BUT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE ISOLATED
CONVECTION. REMAINDER OF THE REGION WILL SEE A MIX OF SUN AND
CLOUDS. HIGHS ONCE AGAIN WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO MID 80S.

ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE ROTATING AROUND THE CLOSED LOW WILL
BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT BUT THESE WILL BE BRIEF
AND WIDELY SCATTERED AND WILL PUSH EAST OF THE REGION BY MONDAY
MORNING.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION MONDAY. AREA MOST LIKELY
TO SEE CONVECTION WOULD BE NORTHWEST ZONES. EXPECT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES
IN FROM THE WEST. SLOW MOVING FRONT WILL FINALLY CROSS THE AREA ON
TUESDAY. SHOULD BE ENOUGH LINGERING INSTABILITY TO KICK OFF MORE
CONVECTION BEFORE DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR PUSHES IN FROM THE
WEST IN THE AFTERNOON.

CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL SETTLE INTO THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY BRINGING MUCH COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION. COOL AND
UNSTABLE AIR WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A LOT DAYTIME CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE SHOWERS. HIGH WILL AVERAGE OUT BELOW NORMAL FOR MUCH OF
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/: OUTSIDE OF EARLY MORNING
IFR/LIFR FOG...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE THE COMING TAF
PERIOD AS DRIER AIR PUSHES INTO THE REGION BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD
FRONT.

THROUGH DAYBREAK...IT/S A BATTLE BETWEEN ONGOING DRY ADVECTION AND
RESIDUAL LLEVEL MOISTURE /ENHANCED BY YESTERDAY/S RAINFALL/.  FEEL
THAT THE WORST CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR DURING THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...BEFORE IMPROVING TOWARDS DAYBREAK AS DRY ADVECTION SLOWLY
WINS OUT.  LEB/HIE LIKELY TO SEE THE MOST SIGNIFICANT FOG...BUT EVEN
HERE...EXPECT ONLY BRIEF DIPS TO LIFR/VLIFR.  FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE
SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.

FOR THE DAY TODAY...EXPECT FEW-SCT CU TO DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON...
PARTICULARLY OVER LEB/HIE.  CAN/T RULE OUT A STRAY SPRINKLE IN THESE
SPOTS...BUT NO RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED.  SKIES SHOULD PARTIALLY
CLEAR THIS EVENING.

WESTERLY WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN TO 10G18KTS FOR THE DAY TODAY BEFORE
DIMINISHING TO 5KTS OR LESS THIS EVENING.

LONG TERM...VFR SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR
CEILINGS AND VSBY IN SCATTERED DAYTIME CONVECTION.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...THE OUTER WATERS BRIEFLY APPROACH
20 KT AND 5 FT FOR A FEW HOURS TONIGHT WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLD.

LONG TERM...NO PROBLEMS NOTED.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...ARNOTT/LEGRO
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...ARNOTT
MARINE...




000
FXUS61 KGYX 310525 AAC
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
125 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY. A BROAD SHALLOW
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT
AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH
OF NEW ENGLAND. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON MONDAY AND WILL
SLOWLY CROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
LINGER OVER THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
120 AM UPDATE...LITTLE CHANGES NEEDED THIS HOUR OUTSIDE OF
REMOVING ANY LOW POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AND EXPANDING
PATCHY FOG AREA SOMEWHAT FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BEFORE DRY
ADVECTION SHOULD BEGIN WINNING THE BATTLE...AND SHRINKING THE FOG
AREA THROGH DAYBREAK. FINALLY...BOOSTED WINDS OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN GIVEN OVERNIGHT OBSERVATIONS FROM MWN.

UPDATE...REMAINING STRONGER TSTMS THAT MANAGED TO TAP LINGERING
THETA-E AXIS ARE EXITING THE FORECAST AREA TO THE E. DIMINISHING
INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE IN THIS AREA IS ALLOWING STORMS TO
GRADUALLY WEAKEN WITH EWD MOVEMENT.

CLEARING IS WORKING IN QUICKLY BEHIND THE SHOWERS/STORMS. THE WET
GROUND AND COOLING TEMPS WILL PROMOTE FOG IN LOW LYING AREAS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AT 18Z THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WAS ENTERING
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. NWS DOPPLER RADAR MOSAIC SHOWED A LINE OF
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...WITH WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION FORMING OUT AHEAD OF THE
MAIN LINE OF CONVECTION. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW MID COAST
MAINE LOCATIONS...TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE 80S AND LOWER
90S AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH DEWPOINTS RANGING FROM THE MID 60S TO
LOWER 70S. WHILE SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETERS ARE NOT
IMPRESSIVE...CAN`T ENTIRELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED CELL OR TWO WITH
STRONG WIND GUSTS AS THE CONVECTION MOVES INTO OUR AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. PRECIPITATION WILL END FROM WEST TO
EAST THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT SWEEPS EASTWARD...WITH ANY
LINGERING ACTIVITY SLIDING OFFSHORE BY MIDNIGHT ALONG WITH THE
FRONT. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM UPPER 50S TO MID 60S WITH
PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
ON FRIDAY...WESTERLY FLOW AND WEAK RIDGING SHOULD PROVIDE A
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. HOWEVER...CAN`T ENTIRELY RULE OUT A
BRIEF SHOWER IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN NEAR OUR INTERNATIONAL BORDER.
IT`LL BE LESS HUMID WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S. PARTLY CLOUDY
FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH A LOW CHANCE OF A SHOWER AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR
FAR NORTHERN AND WESTERN SECTIONS AHEAD OF NEXT DISTURBANCE. LOWS
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO THE LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BROAD SHALLOW SURFACE TROUGH REFLECTING A LARGE CLOSED LOW
OVER EAST CENTRAL CANADA WILL SETTLE IN FOR THE WEEKEND. A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH IN FROM THE WEST SATURDAY AFTERNOON
KICKING OFF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. GOOD SHEAR WILL BE IN
PLACE SO THE POTENTIAL WILL BE THERE FOR SOME SEVERE STORMS.
HIGH TEMPS ON SATURDAY WILL BE FROM THE MID 70S TO MID 80S.

THE FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS WILL END
DURING THE EVENING. LOOKING FOR PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL BRING INSTABILITY AND SOME SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTHERN ZONES ON SUNDAY. CAPES WILL
BE RATHER MARGINAL BUT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE ISOLATED
CONVECTION. REMAINDER OF THE REGION WILL SEE A MIX OF SUN AND
CLOUDS. HIGHS ONCE AGAIN WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO MID 80S.

ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE ROTATING AROUND THE CLOSED LOW WILL
BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT BUT THESE WILL BE BRIEF
AND WIDELY SCATTERED AND WILL PUSH EAST OF THE REGION BY MONDAY
MORNING.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION MONDAY. AREA MOST LIKELY
TO SEE CONVECTION WOULD BE NORTHWEST ZONES. EXPECT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES
IN FROM THE WEST. SLOW MOVING FRONT WILL FINALLY CROSS THE AREA ON
TUESDAY. SHOULD BE ENOUGH LINGERING INSTABILITY TO KICK OFF MORE
CONVECTION BEFORE DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR PUSHES IN FROM THE
WEST IN THE AFTERNOON.

CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL SETTLE INTO THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY BRINGING MUCH COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION. COOL AND
UNSTABLE AIR WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A LOT DAYTIME CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE SHOWERS. HIGH WILL AVERAGE OUT BELOW NORMAL FOR MUCH OF
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/: OUTSIDE OF EARLY MORNING
IFR/LIFR FOG...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE THE COMING TAF
PERIOD AS DRIER AIR PUSHES INTO THE REGION BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD
FRONT.

THROUGH DAYBREAK...IT/S A BATTLE BETWEEN ONGOING DRY ADVECTION AND
RESIDUAL LLEVEL MOISTURE /ENHANCED BY YESTERDAY/S RAINFALL/.  FEEL
THAT THE WORST CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR DURING THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...BEFORE IMPROVING TOWARDS DAYBREAK AS DRY ADVECTION SLOWLY
WINS OUT.  LEB/HIE LIKELY TO SEE THE MOST SIGNIFICANT FOG...BUT EVEN
HERE...EXPECT ONLY BRIEF DIPS TO LIFR/VLIFR.  FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE
SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.

FOR THE DAY TODAY...EXPECT FEW-SCT CU TO DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON...
PARTICULARLY OVER LEB/HIE.  CAN/T RULE OUT A STRAY SPRINKLE IN THESE
SPOTS...BUT NO RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED.  SKIES SHOULD PARTIALLY
CLEAR THIS EVENING.

WESTERLY WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN TO 10G18KTS FOR THE DAY TODAY BEFORE
DIMINISHING TO 5KTS OR LESS THIS EVENING.

LONG TERM...VFR SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR
CEILINGS AND VSBY IN SCATTERED DAYTIME CONVECTION.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...THE OUTER WATERS BRIEFLY APPROACH
20 KT AND 5 FT FOR A FEW HOURS TONIGHT WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLD.

LONG TERM...NO PROBLEMS NOTED.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...ARNOTT/LEGRO
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...ARNOTT
MARINE...



000
FXUS61 KGYX 310525 AAC
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
125 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY. A BROAD SHALLOW
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT
AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH
OF NEW ENGLAND. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON MONDAY AND WILL
SLOWLY CROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
LINGER OVER THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
120 AM UPDATE...LITTLE CHANGES NEEDED THIS HOUR OUTSIDE OF
REMOVING ANY LOW POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AND EXPANDING
PATCHY FOG AREA SOMEWHAT FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BEFORE DRY
ADVECTION SHOULD BEGIN WINNING THE BATTLE...AND SHRINKING THE FOG
AREA THROGH DAYBREAK. FINALLY...BOOSTED WINDS OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN GIVEN OVERNIGHT OBSERVATIONS FROM MWN.

UPDATE...REMAINING STRONGER TSTMS THAT MANAGED TO TAP LINGERING
THETA-E AXIS ARE EXITING THE FORECAST AREA TO THE E. DIMINISHING
INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE IN THIS AREA IS ALLOWING STORMS TO
GRADUALLY WEAKEN WITH EWD MOVEMENT.

CLEARING IS WORKING IN QUICKLY BEHIND THE SHOWERS/STORMS. THE WET
GROUND AND COOLING TEMPS WILL PROMOTE FOG IN LOW LYING AREAS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AT 18Z THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WAS ENTERING
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. NWS DOPPLER RADAR MOSAIC SHOWED A LINE OF
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...WITH WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION FORMING OUT AHEAD OF THE
MAIN LINE OF CONVECTION. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW MID COAST
MAINE LOCATIONS...TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE 80S AND LOWER
90S AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH DEWPOINTS RANGING FROM THE MID 60S TO
LOWER 70S. WHILE SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETERS ARE NOT
IMPRESSIVE...CAN`T ENTIRELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED CELL OR TWO WITH
STRONG WIND GUSTS AS THE CONVECTION MOVES INTO OUR AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. PRECIPITATION WILL END FROM WEST TO
EAST THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT SWEEPS EASTWARD...WITH ANY
LINGERING ACTIVITY SLIDING OFFSHORE BY MIDNIGHT ALONG WITH THE
FRONT. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM UPPER 50S TO MID 60S WITH
PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
ON FRIDAY...WESTERLY FLOW AND WEAK RIDGING SHOULD PROVIDE A
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. HOWEVER...CAN`T ENTIRELY RULE OUT A
BRIEF SHOWER IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN NEAR OUR INTERNATIONAL BORDER.
IT`LL BE LESS HUMID WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S. PARTLY CLOUDY
FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH A LOW CHANCE OF A SHOWER AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR
FAR NORTHERN AND WESTERN SECTIONS AHEAD OF NEXT DISTURBANCE. LOWS
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO THE LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BROAD SHALLOW SURFACE TROUGH REFLECTING A LARGE CLOSED LOW
OVER EAST CENTRAL CANADA WILL SETTLE IN FOR THE WEEKEND. A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH IN FROM THE WEST SATURDAY AFTERNOON
KICKING OFF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. GOOD SHEAR WILL BE IN
PLACE SO THE POTENTIAL WILL BE THERE FOR SOME SEVERE STORMS.
HIGH TEMPS ON SATURDAY WILL BE FROM THE MID 70S TO MID 80S.

THE FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS WILL END
DURING THE EVENING. LOOKING FOR PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL BRING INSTABILITY AND SOME SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTHERN ZONES ON SUNDAY. CAPES WILL
BE RATHER MARGINAL BUT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE ISOLATED
CONVECTION. REMAINDER OF THE REGION WILL SEE A MIX OF SUN AND
CLOUDS. HIGHS ONCE AGAIN WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO MID 80S.

ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE ROTATING AROUND THE CLOSED LOW WILL
BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT BUT THESE WILL BE BRIEF
AND WIDELY SCATTERED AND WILL PUSH EAST OF THE REGION BY MONDAY
MORNING.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION MONDAY. AREA MOST LIKELY
TO SEE CONVECTION WOULD BE NORTHWEST ZONES. EXPECT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES
IN FROM THE WEST. SLOW MOVING FRONT WILL FINALLY CROSS THE AREA ON
TUESDAY. SHOULD BE ENOUGH LINGERING INSTABILITY TO KICK OFF MORE
CONVECTION BEFORE DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR PUSHES IN FROM THE
WEST IN THE AFTERNOON.

CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL SETTLE INTO THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY BRINGING MUCH COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION. COOL AND
UNSTABLE AIR WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A LOT DAYTIME CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE SHOWERS. HIGH WILL AVERAGE OUT BELOW NORMAL FOR MUCH OF
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/: OUTSIDE OF EARLY MORNING
IFR/LIFR FOG...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE THE COMING TAF
PERIOD AS DRIER AIR PUSHES INTO THE REGION BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD
FRONT.

THROUGH DAYBREAK...IT/S A BATTLE BETWEEN ONGOING DRY ADVECTION AND
RESIDUAL LLEVEL MOISTURE /ENHANCED BY YESTERDAY/S RAINFALL/.  FEEL
THAT THE WORST CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR DURING THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...BEFORE IMPROVING TOWARDS DAYBREAK AS DRY ADVECTION SLOWLY
WINS OUT.  LEB/HIE LIKELY TO SEE THE MOST SIGNIFICANT FOG...BUT EVEN
HERE...EXPECT ONLY BRIEF DIPS TO LIFR/VLIFR.  FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE
SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.

FOR THE DAY TODAY...EXPECT FEW-SCT CU TO DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON...
PARTICULARLY OVER LEB/HIE.  CAN/T RULE OUT A STRAY SPRINKLE IN THESE
SPOTS...BUT NO RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED.  SKIES SHOULD PARTIALLY
CLEAR THIS EVENING.

WESTERLY WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN TO 10G18KTS FOR THE DAY TODAY BEFORE
DIMINISHING TO 5KTS OR LESS THIS EVENING.

LONG TERM...VFR SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR
CEILINGS AND VSBY IN SCATTERED DAYTIME CONVECTION.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...THE OUTER WATERS BRIEFLY APPROACH
20 KT AND 5 FT FOR A FEW HOURS TONIGHT WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLD.

LONG TERM...NO PROBLEMS NOTED.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...ARNOTT/LEGRO
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...ARNOTT
MARINE...



000
FXUS61 KCAR 310511
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
111 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT WITH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS NORTHERN MAINE
ON FRIDAY. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1 AM UPDATE...ADJUSTED THE PRECIP TO MOVE THINGS ALONG FURTHER TO
THE E. A 2DN AREA OF SHOWERS SHOWING UP ON RADAR MOVING INTO NW
MAINE LOOK LIKE THEY WILL FALL APART AS THEY MOVE E.
TEMPS/DEWPOINTS WERE ADJUSTED TO MATCH THE LATEST OBS. FOG STILL
LOOKS TO BE A GOOD BET BY DAYBREAK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LINE OF TSTORMS HAS DVLPD AHD OF COLD FRONT AS AIRMASS
DESTABILIZES. BEST FRCG EXISTS ACRS THE NORTH INTO THE LATE AFTN
AS H5 RIDGE HOLDS TIGHT ACRS DOWNEAST ZONES FOR THE NEXT SVRL HRS.
RIDGE SHUD BEGIN TO FLATTEN BY 00Z AS S/WV LIFTS NORTH THRU CWA.
THUS HV GONE WITH LKLY- CAT POPS OVR THE FAR NW THRU 00Z THEN
DIMINISHING AFT THIS TIME AS UPR LVL SUPPORT SHIFTS OFF TO THE NE.
LINGERING ELEVATED INSTABILITY WL BE ENUF TO KEEP TSTMS GOING
UNTIL CLOSE TO 03Z ACRS ERN AREAS WITH RMNG AREAS JUST SEEING
SHOWERS IN WAKE OF FROPA.

BIGGEST THREAT FM STORMS WL BE LOCALLY HVY RAINFALL THIS AFTN ALONG
WITH GUSTY WINDS. FRZG LVL ARND 14KFT WL PREVENT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
A LARGE HAIL THREAT, UNLESS STORMS CAN BCM ORGANIZED. EXPECT PATCHY
FOG TO DVLP ACRS AREA AFT MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WHERE RAIN OCCURRED.
AREAS OF FOG WL AFFECT COASTAL AREAS THRU DAYBREAK AGAIN.

AFT FRONT PASSES BY 12Z ANOTHER WV CURRENTLY LOCATED OVR THE UPR
MIDWEST WL AFFECT CWA FRI MRNG. EXPECT PCLDY SKIES AS A RESULT OF
VORT MVG THRU WITH ISOLD-SCTD SHOWERS ACRS THE CROWN OF MAINE DRG
THE MRNG HRS THEN QUICKLY LIFTING NORTH AFT 18Z. TEMPS WL BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER ON FRIDAY ACRS THE FAR NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS HUDSON BAY FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...WHILE SEVERAL DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND
THE LOW MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL APPROACH NORTHERN MAINE LATER FRIDAY NIGHT WHILE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CROSSES THE REGION. EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION. THE UPPER DISTURBANCE
WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
RELATIVELY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE
STEEP LAPSE RATES...UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND DIURNAL
INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MOSTLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON WHICH WILL PERSIST INTO THE EVENING. THE
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN DIMINISH OVERNIGHT WITH THE LOSS
OF HEATING AND THE UPPER DISTURBANCE EXITING TO THE EAST LEAVING
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. A SIMILAR SCENARIO WILL THEN OCCUR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WITH ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT NEAR NORMAL LEVELS SATURDAY/SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOOKING AHEAD TO EARLY NEXT WEEK, OUR PATTERN WILL BEGIN WITH UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AND WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ANCHORED IN CENTRAL
CANADA WHILE WARM HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS SITUATED OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST. THIS WILL BRING A POTENTIALLY ACTIVE PATTERN WITH
THE HIGH PUSHING WARM AND HUMID AIR NORTH INTO THE REGION AT THE
SAME TIME SHORTWAVES AND WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEMS SLIDE IN FROM THE
GREAT LAKES BENEATH THE CANADIAN TROUGH. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
WILL BE WARM AND HUMID WITH A SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZE. A FEW SPOTS MAY
GET A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ON MONDAY. A SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE
BOTTOM OF THE TROUGH WILL GLIDE INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT BRINGING
AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SCATTERED SHOWERS
MAY CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY BEFORE THE SHORTWAVE GLIDES OFF TO THE
EAST ALLOWING SOME CLEARING LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AIR WILL THEN FILTER INTO THE REGION LATER
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST INTO QUEBEC
PULLING COOLER AIR IN BEHIND IT. WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WILL BE
UNSEASONABLY COOL WITH A MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY AND SOME LIGHT SHOWERS
OVER THE NORTH. GENERALLY COOL WEATHER MAY LAST INTO NEXT WEEKEND
WITH A TROUGH CENTERED IN THE NORTHEAST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR DEVELOPING MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH THE NIGHT. BECOMING
VFR FRIDAY MORNING.

SHORT TERM: GENERALLY EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION
FRIDAY NIGHT. VARIABLE CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR WITH ANY SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...ALONG WITH ANY OVERNIGHT
FOG. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: FOG WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT UNTIL A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. EXPECT WINDS TO GUST TO
BETWEEN 10-15KTS THIS EVENING. SEAS AND WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH FRIDAY.

SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HEWITT



000
FXUS61 KCAR 310511
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
111 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT WITH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS NORTHERN MAINE
ON FRIDAY. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1 AM UPDATE...ADJUSTED THE PRECIP TO MOVE THINGS ALONG FURTHER TO
THE E. A 2DN AREA OF SHOWERS SHOWING UP ON RADAR MOVING INTO NW
MAINE LOOK LIKE THEY WILL FALL APART AS THEY MOVE E.
TEMPS/DEWPOINTS WERE ADJUSTED TO MATCH THE LATEST OBS. FOG STILL
LOOKS TO BE A GOOD BET BY DAYBREAK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LINE OF TSTORMS HAS DVLPD AHD OF COLD FRONT AS AIRMASS
DESTABILIZES. BEST FRCG EXISTS ACRS THE NORTH INTO THE LATE AFTN
AS H5 RIDGE HOLDS TIGHT ACRS DOWNEAST ZONES FOR THE NEXT SVRL HRS.
RIDGE SHUD BEGIN TO FLATTEN BY 00Z AS S/WV LIFTS NORTH THRU CWA.
THUS HV GONE WITH LKLY- CAT POPS OVR THE FAR NW THRU 00Z THEN
DIMINISHING AFT THIS TIME AS UPR LVL SUPPORT SHIFTS OFF TO THE NE.
LINGERING ELEVATED INSTABILITY WL BE ENUF TO KEEP TSTMS GOING
UNTIL CLOSE TO 03Z ACRS ERN AREAS WITH RMNG AREAS JUST SEEING
SHOWERS IN WAKE OF FROPA.

BIGGEST THREAT FM STORMS WL BE LOCALLY HVY RAINFALL THIS AFTN ALONG
WITH GUSTY WINDS. FRZG LVL ARND 14KFT WL PREVENT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
A LARGE HAIL THREAT, UNLESS STORMS CAN BCM ORGANIZED. EXPECT PATCHY
FOG TO DVLP ACRS AREA AFT MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WHERE RAIN OCCURRED.
AREAS OF FOG WL AFFECT COASTAL AREAS THRU DAYBREAK AGAIN.

AFT FRONT PASSES BY 12Z ANOTHER WV CURRENTLY LOCATED OVR THE UPR
MIDWEST WL AFFECT CWA FRI MRNG. EXPECT PCLDY SKIES AS A RESULT OF
VORT MVG THRU WITH ISOLD-SCTD SHOWERS ACRS THE CROWN OF MAINE DRG
THE MRNG HRS THEN QUICKLY LIFTING NORTH AFT 18Z. TEMPS WL BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER ON FRIDAY ACRS THE FAR NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS HUDSON BAY FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...WHILE SEVERAL DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND
THE LOW MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL APPROACH NORTHERN MAINE LATER FRIDAY NIGHT WHILE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CROSSES THE REGION. EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION. THE UPPER DISTURBANCE
WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
RELATIVELY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE
STEEP LAPSE RATES...UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND DIURNAL
INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MOSTLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON WHICH WILL PERSIST INTO THE EVENING. THE
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN DIMINISH OVERNIGHT WITH THE LOSS
OF HEATING AND THE UPPER DISTURBANCE EXITING TO THE EAST LEAVING
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. A SIMILAR SCENARIO WILL THEN OCCUR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WITH ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT NEAR NORMAL LEVELS SATURDAY/SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOOKING AHEAD TO EARLY NEXT WEEK, OUR PATTERN WILL BEGIN WITH UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AND WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ANCHORED IN CENTRAL
CANADA WHILE WARM HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS SITUATED OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST. THIS WILL BRING A POTENTIALLY ACTIVE PATTERN WITH
THE HIGH PUSHING WARM AND HUMID AIR NORTH INTO THE REGION AT THE
SAME TIME SHORTWAVES AND WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEMS SLIDE IN FROM THE
GREAT LAKES BENEATH THE CANADIAN TROUGH. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
WILL BE WARM AND HUMID WITH A SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZE. A FEW SPOTS MAY
GET A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ON MONDAY. A SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE
BOTTOM OF THE TROUGH WILL GLIDE INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT BRINGING
AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SCATTERED SHOWERS
MAY CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY BEFORE THE SHORTWAVE GLIDES OFF TO THE
EAST ALLOWING SOME CLEARING LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AIR WILL THEN FILTER INTO THE REGION LATER
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST INTO QUEBEC
PULLING COOLER AIR IN BEHIND IT. WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WILL BE
UNSEASONABLY COOL WITH A MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY AND SOME LIGHT SHOWERS
OVER THE NORTH. GENERALLY COOL WEATHER MAY LAST INTO NEXT WEEKEND
WITH A TROUGH CENTERED IN THE NORTHEAST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR DEVELOPING MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH THE NIGHT. BECOMING
VFR FRIDAY MORNING.

SHORT TERM: GENERALLY EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION
FRIDAY NIGHT. VARIABLE CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR WITH ANY SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...ALONG WITH ANY OVERNIGHT
FOG. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: FOG WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT UNTIL A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. EXPECT WINDS TO GUST TO
BETWEEN 10-15KTS THIS EVENING. SEAS AND WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH FRIDAY.

SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HEWITT




000
FXUS61 KCAR 310511
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
111 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT WITH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS NORTHERN MAINE
ON FRIDAY. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1 AM UPDATE...ADJUSTED THE PRECIP TO MOVE THINGS ALONG FURTHER TO
THE E. A 2DN AREA OF SHOWERS SHOWING UP ON RADAR MOVING INTO NW
MAINE LOOK LIKE THEY WILL FALL APART AS THEY MOVE E.
TEMPS/DEWPOINTS WERE ADJUSTED TO MATCH THE LATEST OBS. FOG STILL
LOOKS TO BE A GOOD BET BY DAYBREAK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LINE OF TSTORMS HAS DVLPD AHD OF COLD FRONT AS AIRMASS
DESTABILIZES. BEST FRCG EXISTS ACRS THE NORTH INTO THE LATE AFTN
AS H5 RIDGE HOLDS TIGHT ACRS DOWNEAST ZONES FOR THE NEXT SVRL HRS.
RIDGE SHUD BEGIN TO FLATTEN BY 00Z AS S/WV LIFTS NORTH THRU CWA.
THUS HV GONE WITH LKLY- CAT POPS OVR THE FAR NW THRU 00Z THEN
DIMINISHING AFT THIS TIME AS UPR LVL SUPPORT SHIFTS OFF TO THE NE.
LINGERING ELEVATED INSTABILITY WL BE ENUF TO KEEP TSTMS GOING
UNTIL CLOSE TO 03Z ACRS ERN AREAS WITH RMNG AREAS JUST SEEING
SHOWERS IN WAKE OF FROPA.

BIGGEST THREAT FM STORMS WL BE LOCALLY HVY RAINFALL THIS AFTN ALONG
WITH GUSTY WINDS. FRZG LVL ARND 14KFT WL PREVENT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
A LARGE HAIL THREAT, UNLESS STORMS CAN BCM ORGANIZED. EXPECT PATCHY
FOG TO DVLP ACRS AREA AFT MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WHERE RAIN OCCURRED.
AREAS OF FOG WL AFFECT COASTAL AREAS THRU DAYBREAK AGAIN.

AFT FRONT PASSES BY 12Z ANOTHER WV CURRENTLY LOCATED OVR THE UPR
MIDWEST WL AFFECT CWA FRI MRNG. EXPECT PCLDY SKIES AS A RESULT OF
VORT MVG THRU WITH ISOLD-SCTD SHOWERS ACRS THE CROWN OF MAINE DRG
THE MRNG HRS THEN QUICKLY LIFTING NORTH AFT 18Z. TEMPS WL BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER ON FRIDAY ACRS THE FAR NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS HUDSON BAY FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...WHILE SEVERAL DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND
THE LOW MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL APPROACH NORTHERN MAINE LATER FRIDAY NIGHT WHILE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CROSSES THE REGION. EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION. THE UPPER DISTURBANCE
WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
RELATIVELY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE
STEEP LAPSE RATES...UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND DIURNAL
INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MOSTLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON WHICH WILL PERSIST INTO THE EVENING. THE
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN DIMINISH OVERNIGHT WITH THE LOSS
OF HEATING AND THE UPPER DISTURBANCE EXITING TO THE EAST LEAVING
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. A SIMILAR SCENARIO WILL THEN OCCUR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WITH ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT NEAR NORMAL LEVELS SATURDAY/SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOOKING AHEAD TO EARLY NEXT WEEK, OUR PATTERN WILL BEGIN WITH UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AND WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ANCHORED IN CENTRAL
CANADA WHILE WARM HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS SITUATED OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST. THIS WILL BRING A POTENTIALLY ACTIVE PATTERN WITH
THE HIGH PUSHING WARM AND HUMID AIR NORTH INTO THE REGION AT THE
SAME TIME SHORTWAVES AND WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEMS SLIDE IN FROM THE
GREAT LAKES BENEATH THE CANADIAN TROUGH. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
WILL BE WARM AND HUMID WITH A SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZE. A FEW SPOTS MAY
GET A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ON MONDAY. A SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE
BOTTOM OF THE TROUGH WILL GLIDE INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT BRINGING
AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SCATTERED SHOWERS
MAY CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY BEFORE THE SHORTWAVE GLIDES OFF TO THE
EAST ALLOWING SOME CLEARING LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AIR WILL THEN FILTER INTO THE REGION LATER
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST INTO QUEBEC
PULLING COOLER AIR IN BEHIND IT. WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WILL BE
UNSEASONABLY COOL WITH A MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY AND SOME LIGHT SHOWERS
OVER THE NORTH. GENERALLY COOL WEATHER MAY LAST INTO NEXT WEEKEND
WITH A TROUGH CENTERED IN THE NORTHEAST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR DEVELOPING MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH THE NIGHT. BECOMING
VFR FRIDAY MORNING.

SHORT TERM: GENERALLY EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION
FRIDAY NIGHT. VARIABLE CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR WITH ANY SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...ALONG WITH ANY OVERNIGHT
FOG. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: FOG WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT UNTIL A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. EXPECT WINDS TO GUST TO
BETWEEN 10-15KTS THIS EVENING. SEAS AND WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH FRIDAY.

SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HEWITT



000
FXUS61 KCAR 310511
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
111 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT WITH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS NORTHERN MAINE
ON FRIDAY. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1 AM UPDATE...ADJUSTED THE PRECIP TO MOVE THINGS ALONG FURTHER TO
THE E. A 2DN AREA OF SHOWERS SHOWING UP ON RADAR MOVING INTO NW
MAINE LOOK LIKE THEY WILL FALL APART AS THEY MOVE E.
TEMPS/DEWPOINTS WERE ADJUSTED TO MATCH THE LATEST OBS. FOG STILL
LOOKS TO BE A GOOD BET BY DAYBREAK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LINE OF TSTORMS HAS DVLPD AHD OF COLD FRONT AS AIRMASS
DESTABILIZES. BEST FRCG EXISTS ACRS THE NORTH INTO THE LATE AFTN
AS H5 RIDGE HOLDS TIGHT ACRS DOWNEAST ZONES FOR THE NEXT SVRL HRS.
RIDGE SHUD BEGIN TO FLATTEN BY 00Z AS S/WV LIFTS NORTH THRU CWA.
THUS HV GONE WITH LKLY- CAT POPS OVR THE FAR NW THRU 00Z THEN
DIMINISHING AFT THIS TIME AS UPR LVL SUPPORT SHIFTS OFF TO THE NE.
LINGERING ELEVATED INSTABILITY WL BE ENUF TO KEEP TSTMS GOING
UNTIL CLOSE TO 03Z ACRS ERN AREAS WITH RMNG AREAS JUST SEEING
SHOWERS IN WAKE OF FROPA.

BIGGEST THREAT FM STORMS WL BE LOCALLY HVY RAINFALL THIS AFTN ALONG
WITH GUSTY WINDS. FRZG LVL ARND 14KFT WL PREVENT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
A LARGE HAIL THREAT, UNLESS STORMS CAN BCM ORGANIZED. EXPECT PATCHY
FOG TO DVLP ACRS AREA AFT MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WHERE RAIN OCCURRED.
AREAS OF FOG WL AFFECT COASTAL AREAS THRU DAYBREAK AGAIN.

AFT FRONT PASSES BY 12Z ANOTHER WV CURRENTLY LOCATED OVR THE UPR
MIDWEST WL AFFECT CWA FRI MRNG. EXPECT PCLDY SKIES AS A RESULT OF
VORT MVG THRU WITH ISOLD-SCTD SHOWERS ACRS THE CROWN OF MAINE DRG
THE MRNG HRS THEN QUICKLY LIFTING NORTH AFT 18Z. TEMPS WL BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER ON FRIDAY ACRS THE FAR NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS HUDSON BAY FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...WHILE SEVERAL DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND
THE LOW MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL APPROACH NORTHERN MAINE LATER FRIDAY NIGHT WHILE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CROSSES THE REGION. EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION. THE UPPER DISTURBANCE
WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
RELATIVELY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE
STEEP LAPSE RATES...UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND DIURNAL
INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MOSTLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON WHICH WILL PERSIST INTO THE EVENING. THE
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN DIMINISH OVERNIGHT WITH THE LOSS
OF HEATING AND THE UPPER DISTURBANCE EXITING TO THE EAST LEAVING
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. A SIMILAR SCENARIO WILL THEN OCCUR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WITH ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT NEAR NORMAL LEVELS SATURDAY/SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOOKING AHEAD TO EARLY NEXT WEEK, OUR PATTERN WILL BEGIN WITH UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AND WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ANCHORED IN CENTRAL
CANADA WHILE WARM HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS SITUATED OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST. THIS WILL BRING A POTENTIALLY ACTIVE PATTERN WITH
THE HIGH PUSHING WARM AND HUMID AIR NORTH INTO THE REGION AT THE
SAME TIME SHORTWAVES AND WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEMS SLIDE IN FROM THE
GREAT LAKES BENEATH THE CANADIAN TROUGH. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
WILL BE WARM AND HUMID WITH A SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZE. A FEW SPOTS MAY
GET A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ON MONDAY. A SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE
BOTTOM OF THE TROUGH WILL GLIDE INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT BRINGING
AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SCATTERED SHOWERS
MAY CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY BEFORE THE SHORTWAVE GLIDES OFF TO THE
EAST ALLOWING SOME CLEARING LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AIR WILL THEN FILTER INTO THE REGION LATER
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST INTO QUEBEC
PULLING COOLER AIR IN BEHIND IT. WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WILL BE
UNSEASONABLY COOL WITH A MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY AND SOME LIGHT SHOWERS
OVER THE NORTH. GENERALLY COOL WEATHER MAY LAST INTO NEXT WEEKEND
WITH A TROUGH CENTERED IN THE NORTHEAST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR DEVELOPING MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH THE NIGHT. BECOMING
VFR FRIDAY MORNING.

SHORT TERM: GENERALLY EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION
FRIDAY NIGHT. VARIABLE CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR WITH ANY SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...ALONG WITH ANY OVERNIGHT
FOG. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: FOG WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT UNTIL A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. EXPECT WINDS TO GUST TO
BETWEEN 10-15KTS THIS EVENING. SEAS AND WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH FRIDAY.

SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HEWITT



000
FXUS61 KCAR 310511
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
111 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT WITH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS NORTHERN MAINE
ON FRIDAY. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1 AM UPDATE...ADJUSTED THE PRECIP TO MOVE THINGS ALONG FURTHER TO
THE E. A 2DN AREA OF SHOWERS SHOWING UP ON RADAR MOVING INTO NW
MAINE LOOK LIKE THEY WILL FALL APART AS THEY MOVE E.
TEMPS/DEWPOINTS WERE ADJUSTED TO MATCH THE LATEST OBS. FOG STILL
LOOKS TO BE A GOOD BET BY DAYBREAK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LINE OF TSTORMS HAS DVLPD AHD OF COLD FRONT AS AIRMASS
DESTABILIZES. BEST FRCG EXISTS ACRS THE NORTH INTO THE LATE AFTN
AS H5 RIDGE HOLDS TIGHT ACRS DOWNEAST ZONES FOR THE NEXT SVRL HRS.
RIDGE SHUD BEGIN TO FLATTEN BY 00Z AS S/WV LIFTS NORTH THRU CWA.
THUS HV GONE WITH LKLY- CAT POPS OVR THE FAR NW THRU 00Z THEN
DIMINISHING AFT THIS TIME AS UPR LVL SUPPORT SHIFTS OFF TO THE NE.
LINGERING ELEVATED INSTABILITY WL BE ENUF TO KEEP TSTMS GOING
UNTIL CLOSE TO 03Z ACRS ERN AREAS WITH RMNG AREAS JUST SEEING
SHOWERS IN WAKE OF FROPA.

BIGGEST THREAT FM STORMS WL BE LOCALLY HVY RAINFALL THIS AFTN ALONG
WITH GUSTY WINDS. FRZG LVL ARND 14KFT WL PREVENT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
A LARGE HAIL THREAT, UNLESS STORMS CAN BCM ORGANIZED. EXPECT PATCHY
FOG TO DVLP ACRS AREA AFT MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WHERE RAIN OCCURRED.
AREAS OF FOG WL AFFECT COASTAL AREAS THRU DAYBREAK AGAIN.

AFT FRONT PASSES BY 12Z ANOTHER WV CURRENTLY LOCATED OVR THE UPR
MIDWEST WL AFFECT CWA FRI MRNG. EXPECT PCLDY SKIES AS A RESULT OF
VORT MVG THRU WITH ISOLD-SCTD SHOWERS ACRS THE CROWN OF MAINE DRG
THE MRNG HRS THEN QUICKLY LIFTING NORTH AFT 18Z. TEMPS WL BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER ON FRIDAY ACRS THE FAR NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS HUDSON BAY FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...WHILE SEVERAL DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND
THE LOW MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL APPROACH NORTHERN MAINE LATER FRIDAY NIGHT WHILE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CROSSES THE REGION. EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION. THE UPPER DISTURBANCE
WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
RELATIVELY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE
STEEP LAPSE RATES...UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND DIURNAL
INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MOSTLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON WHICH WILL PERSIST INTO THE EVENING. THE
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN DIMINISH OVERNIGHT WITH THE LOSS
OF HEATING AND THE UPPER DISTURBANCE EXITING TO THE EAST LEAVING
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. A SIMILAR SCENARIO WILL THEN OCCUR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WITH ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT NEAR NORMAL LEVELS SATURDAY/SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOOKING AHEAD TO EARLY NEXT WEEK, OUR PATTERN WILL BEGIN WITH UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AND WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ANCHORED IN CENTRAL
CANADA WHILE WARM HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS SITUATED OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST. THIS WILL BRING A POTENTIALLY ACTIVE PATTERN WITH
THE HIGH PUSHING WARM AND HUMID AIR NORTH INTO THE REGION AT THE
SAME TIME SHORTWAVES AND WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEMS SLIDE IN FROM THE
GREAT LAKES BENEATH THE CANADIAN TROUGH. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
WILL BE WARM AND HUMID WITH A SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZE. A FEW SPOTS MAY
GET A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ON MONDAY. A SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE
BOTTOM OF THE TROUGH WILL GLIDE INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT BRINGING
AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SCATTERED SHOWERS
MAY CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY BEFORE THE SHORTWAVE GLIDES OFF TO THE
EAST ALLOWING SOME CLEARING LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AIR WILL THEN FILTER INTO THE REGION LATER
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST INTO QUEBEC
PULLING COOLER AIR IN BEHIND IT. WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WILL BE
UNSEASONABLY COOL WITH A MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY AND SOME LIGHT SHOWERS
OVER THE NORTH. GENERALLY COOL WEATHER MAY LAST INTO NEXT WEEKEND
WITH A TROUGH CENTERED IN THE NORTHEAST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR DEVELOPING MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH THE NIGHT. BECOMING
VFR FRIDAY MORNING.

SHORT TERM: GENERALLY EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION
FRIDAY NIGHT. VARIABLE CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR WITH ANY SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...ALONG WITH ANY OVERNIGHT
FOG. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: FOG WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT UNTIL A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. EXPECT WINDS TO GUST TO
BETWEEN 10-15KTS THIS EVENING. SEAS AND WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH FRIDAY.

SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HEWITT



000
FXUS61 KCAR 310511
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
111 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT WITH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS NORTHERN MAINE
ON FRIDAY. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1 AM UPDATE...ADJUSTED THE PRECIP TO MOVE THINGS ALONG FURTHER TO
THE E. A 2DN AREA OF SHOWERS SHOWING UP ON RADAR MOVING INTO NW
MAINE LOOK LIKE THEY WILL FALL APART AS THEY MOVE E.
TEMPS/DEWPOINTS WERE ADJUSTED TO MATCH THE LATEST OBS. FOG STILL
LOOKS TO BE A GOOD BET BY DAYBREAK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LINE OF TSTORMS HAS DVLPD AHD OF COLD FRONT AS AIRMASS
DESTABILIZES. BEST FRCG EXISTS ACRS THE NORTH INTO THE LATE AFTN
AS H5 RIDGE HOLDS TIGHT ACRS DOWNEAST ZONES FOR THE NEXT SVRL HRS.
RIDGE SHUD BEGIN TO FLATTEN BY 00Z AS S/WV LIFTS NORTH THRU CWA.
THUS HV GONE WITH LKLY- CAT POPS OVR THE FAR NW THRU 00Z THEN
DIMINISHING AFT THIS TIME AS UPR LVL SUPPORT SHIFTS OFF TO THE NE.
LINGERING ELEVATED INSTABILITY WL BE ENUF TO KEEP TSTMS GOING
UNTIL CLOSE TO 03Z ACRS ERN AREAS WITH RMNG AREAS JUST SEEING
SHOWERS IN WAKE OF FROPA.

BIGGEST THREAT FM STORMS WL BE LOCALLY HVY RAINFALL THIS AFTN ALONG
WITH GUSTY WINDS. FRZG LVL ARND 14KFT WL PREVENT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
A LARGE HAIL THREAT, UNLESS STORMS CAN BCM ORGANIZED. EXPECT PATCHY
FOG TO DVLP ACRS AREA AFT MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WHERE RAIN OCCURRED.
AREAS OF FOG WL AFFECT COASTAL AREAS THRU DAYBREAK AGAIN.

AFT FRONT PASSES BY 12Z ANOTHER WV CURRENTLY LOCATED OVR THE UPR
MIDWEST WL AFFECT CWA FRI MRNG. EXPECT PCLDY SKIES AS A RESULT OF
VORT MVG THRU WITH ISOLD-SCTD SHOWERS ACRS THE CROWN OF MAINE DRG
THE MRNG HRS THEN QUICKLY LIFTING NORTH AFT 18Z. TEMPS WL BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER ON FRIDAY ACRS THE FAR NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS HUDSON BAY FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...WHILE SEVERAL DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND
THE LOW MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL APPROACH NORTHERN MAINE LATER FRIDAY NIGHT WHILE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CROSSES THE REGION. EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION. THE UPPER DISTURBANCE
WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
RELATIVELY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE
STEEP LAPSE RATES...UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND DIURNAL
INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MOSTLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON WHICH WILL PERSIST INTO THE EVENING. THE
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN DIMINISH OVERNIGHT WITH THE LOSS
OF HEATING AND THE UPPER DISTURBANCE EXITING TO THE EAST LEAVING
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. A SIMILAR SCENARIO WILL THEN OCCUR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WITH ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT NEAR NORMAL LEVELS SATURDAY/SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOOKING AHEAD TO EARLY NEXT WEEK, OUR PATTERN WILL BEGIN WITH UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AND WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ANCHORED IN CENTRAL
CANADA WHILE WARM HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS SITUATED OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST. THIS WILL BRING A POTENTIALLY ACTIVE PATTERN WITH
THE HIGH PUSHING WARM AND HUMID AIR NORTH INTO THE REGION AT THE
SAME TIME SHORTWAVES AND WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEMS SLIDE IN FROM THE
GREAT LAKES BENEATH THE CANADIAN TROUGH. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
WILL BE WARM AND HUMID WITH A SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZE. A FEW SPOTS MAY
GET A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ON MONDAY. A SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE
BOTTOM OF THE TROUGH WILL GLIDE INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT BRINGING
AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SCATTERED SHOWERS
MAY CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY BEFORE THE SHORTWAVE GLIDES OFF TO THE
EAST ALLOWING SOME CLEARING LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AIR WILL THEN FILTER INTO THE REGION LATER
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST INTO QUEBEC
PULLING COOLER AIR IN BEHIND IT. WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WILL BE
UNSEASONABLY COOL WITH A MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY AND SOME LIGHT SHOWERS
OVER THE NORTH. GENERALLY COOL WEATHER MAY LAST INTO NEXT WEEKEND
WITH A TROUGH CENTERED IN THE NORTHEAST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR DEVELOPING MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH THE NIGHT. BECOMING
VFR FRIDAY MORNING.

SHORT TERM: GENERALLY EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION
FRIDAY NIGHT. VARIABLE CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR WITH ANY SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...ALONG WITH ANY OVERNIGHT
FOG. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: FOG WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT UNTIL A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. EXPECT WINDS TO GUST TO
BETWEEN 10-15KTS THIS EVENING. SEAS AND WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH FRIDAY.

SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HEWITT



000
FXUS61 KCAR 310142
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
942 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT WITH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS NORTHERN MAINE
ON FRIDAY. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
930 PM UPDATE...
STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF SHOWERS OVER MOST OF THE AREA, WITH
ISOLATED EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. KEPT IN THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL
MIDNIGHT FOR ALL BUT AREAS SOUTHEAST OF BANGOR.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LINE OF TSTORMS HAS DVLPD AHD OF COLD FRONT AS AIRMASS
DESTABILIZES. BEST FRCG EXISTS ACRS THE NORTH INTO THE LATE AFTN
AS H5 RIDGE HOLDS TIGHT ACRS DOWNEAST ZONES FOR THE NEXT SVRL HRS.
RIDGE SHUD BEGIN TO FLATTEN BY 00Z AS S/WV LIFTS NORTH THRU CWA.
THUS HV GONE WITH LKLY- CAT POPS OVR THE FAR NW THRU 00Z THEN
DIMINISHING AFT THIS TIME AS UPR LVL SUPPORT SHIFTS OFF TO THE NE.
LINGERING ELEVATED INSTABILITY WL BE ENUF TO KEEP TSTMS GOING
UNTIL CLOSE TO 03Z ACRS ERN AREAS WITH RMNG AREAS JUST SEEING
SHOWERS IN WAKE OF FROPA.

BIGGEST THREAT FM STORMS WL BE LOCALLY HVY RAINFALL THIS AFTN ALONG
WITH GUSTY WINDS. FRZG LVL ARND 14KFT WL PREVENT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
A LARGE HAIL THREAT, UNLESS STORMS CAN BCM ORGANIZED. EXPECT PATCHY
FOG TO DVLP ACRS AREA AFT MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WHERE RAIN OCCURRED.
AREAS OF FOG WL AFFECT COASTAL AREAS THRU DAYBREAK AGAIN.

AFT FRONT PASSES BY 12Z ANOTHER WV CURRENTLY LOCATED OVR THE UPR
MIDWEST WL AFFECT CWA FRI MRNG. EXPECT PCLDY SKIES AS A RESULT OF
VORT MVG THRU WITH ISOLD-SCTD SHOWERS ACRS THE CROWN OF MAINE DRG
THE MRNG HRS THEN QUICKLY LIFTING NORTH AFT 18Z. TEMPS WL BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER ON FRIDAY ACRS THE FAR NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS HUDSON BAY FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...WHILE SEVERAL DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND
THE LOW MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL APPROACH NORTHERN MAINE LATER FRIDAY NIGHT WHILE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CROSSES THE REGION. EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION. THE UPPER DISTURBANCE
WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
RELATIVELY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE
STEEP LAPSE RATES...UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND DIURNAL
INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MOSTLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON WHICH WILL PERSIST INTO THE EVENING. THE
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN DIMINISH OVERNIGHT WITH THE LOSS
OF HEATING AND THE UPPER DISTURBANCE EXITING TO THE EAST LEAVING
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. A SIMILAR SCENARIO WILL THEN OCCUR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WITH ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT NEAR NORMAL LEVELS SATURDAY/SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOOKING AHEAD TO EARLY NEXT WEEK, OUR PATTERN WILL BEGIN WITH UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AND WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ANCHORED IN CENTRAL
CANADA WHILE WARM HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS SITUATED OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST. THIS WILL BRING A POTENTIALLY ACTIVE PATTERN WITH
THE HIGH PUSHING WARM AND HUMID AIR NORTH INTO THE REGION AT THE
SAME TIME SHORTWAVES AND WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEMS SLIDE IN FROM THE
GREAT LAKES BENEATH THE CANADIAN TROUGH. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
WILL BE WARM AND HUMID WITH A SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZE. A FEW SPOTS MAY
GET A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ON MONDAY. A SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE
BOTTOM OF THE TROUGH WILL GLIDE INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT BRINGING
AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SCATTERED SHOWERS
MAY CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY BEFORE THE SHORTWAVE GLIDES OFF TO THE
EAST ALLOWING SOME CLEARING LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AIR WILL THEN FILTER INTO THE REGION LATER
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST INTO QUEBEC
PULLING COOLER AIR IN BEHIND IT. WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WILL BE
UNSEASONABLY COOL WITH A MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY AND SOME LIGHT SHOWERS
OVER THE NORTH. GENERALLY COOL WEATHER MAY LAST INTO NEXT WEEKEND
WITH A TROUGH CENTERED IN THE NORTHEAST.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR DEVELOPING MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH THE NIGHT. BECOMING
VFR FRIDAY MORNING.

SHORT TERM: GENERALLY EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION
FRIDAY NIGHT. VARIABLE CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR WITH ANY SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...ALONG WITH ANY OVERNIGHT
FOG. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: FOG WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT UNTIL A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. EXPECT WINDS TO GUST TO
BETWEEN 10-15KTS THIS EVENING. SEAS AND WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH FRIDAY.

SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...FARRAR/FOISY
SHORT TERM...NORCROSS
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...FARRAR/FOISY/NORCROSS
MARINE...FARRAR/FOISY/NORCROSS




000
FXUS61 KCAR 310142
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
942 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT WITH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS NORTHERN MAINE
ON FRIDAY. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
930 PM UPDATE...
STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF SHOWERS OVER MOST OF THE AREA, WITH
ISOLATED EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. KEPT IN THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL
MIDNIGHT FOR ALL BUT AREAS SOUTHEAST OF BANGOR.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LINE OF TSTORMS HAS DVLPD AHD OF COLD FRONT AS AIRMASS
DESTABILIZES. BEST FRCG EXISTS ACRS THE NORTH INTO THE LATE AFTN
AS H5 RIDGE HOLDS TIGHT ACRS DOWNEAST ZONES FOR THE NEXT SVRL HRS.
RIDGE SHUD BEGIN TO FLATTEN BY 00Z AS S/WV LIFTS NORTH THRU CWA.
THUS HV GONE WITH LKLY- CAT POPS OVR THE FAR NW THRU 00Z THEN
DIMINISHING AFT THIS TIME AS UPR LVL SUPPORT SHIFTS OFF TO THE NE.
LINGERING ELEVATED INSTABILITY WL BE ENUF TO KEEP TSTMS GOING
UNTIL CLOSE TO 03Z ACRS ERN AREAS WITH RMNG AREAS JUST SEEING
SHOWERS IN WAKE OF FROPA.

BIGGEST THREAT FM STORMS WL BE LOCALLY HVY RAINFALL THIS AFTN ALONG
WITH GUSTY WINDS. FRZG LVL ARND 14KFT WL PREVENT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
A LARGE HAIL THREAT, UNLESS STORMS CAN BCM ORGANIZED. EXPECT PATCHY
FOG TO DVLP ACRS AREA AFT MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WHERE RAIN OCCURRED.
AREAS OF FOG WL AFFECT COASTAL AREAS THRU DAYBREAK AGAIN.

AFT FRONT PASSES BY 12Z ANOTHER WV CURRENTLY LOCATED OVR THE UPR
MIDWEST WL AFFECT CWA FRI MRNG. EXPECT PCLDY SKIES AS A RESULT OF
VORT MVG THRU WITH ISOLD-SCTD SHOWERS ACRS THE CROWN OF MAINE DRG
THE MRNG HRS THEN QUICKLY LIFTING NORTH AFT 18Z. TEMPS WL BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER ON FRIDAY ACRS THE FAR NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS HUDSON BAY FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...WHILE SEVERAL DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND
THE LOW MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL APPROACH NORTHERN MAINE LATER FRIDAY NIGHT WHILE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CROSSES THE REGION. EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION. THE UPPER DISTURBANCE
WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
RELATIVELY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE
STEEP LAPSE RATES...UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND DIURNAL
INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MOSTLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON WHICH WILL PERSIST INTO THE EVENING. THE
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN DIMINISH OVERNIGHT WITH THE LOSS
OF HEATING AND THE UPPER DISTURBANCE EXITING TO THE EAST LEAVING
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. A SIMILAR SCENARIO WILL THEN OCCUR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WITH ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT NEAR NORMAL LEVELS SATURDAY/SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOOKING AHEAD TO EARLY NEXT WEEK, OUR PATTERN WILL BEGIN WITH UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AND WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ANCHORED IN CENTRAL
CANADA WHILE WARM HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS SITUATED OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST. THIS WILL BRING A POTENTIALLY ACTIVE PATTERN WITH
THE HIGH PUSHING WARM AND HUMID AIR NORTH INTO THE REGION AT THE
SAME TIME SHORTWAVES AND WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEMS SLIDE IN FROM THE
GREAT LAKES BENEATH THE CANADIAN TROUGH. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
WILL BE WARM AND HUMID WITH A SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZE. A FEW SPOTS MAY
GET A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ON MONDAY. A SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE
BOTTOM OF THE TROUGH WILL GLIDE INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT BRINGING
AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SCATTERED SHOWERS
MAY CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY BEFORE THE SHORTWAVE GLIDES OFF TO THE
EAST ALLOWING SOME CLEARING LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AIR WILL THEN FILTER INTO THE REGION LATER
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST INTO QUEBEC
PULLING COOLER AIR IN BEHIND IT. WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WILL BE
UNSEASONABLY COOL WITH A MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY AND SOME LIGHT SHOWERS
OVER THE NORTH. GENERALLY COOL WEATHER MAY LAST INTO NEXT WEEKEND
WITH A TROUGH CENTERED IN THE NORTHEAST.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR DEVELOPING MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH THE NIGHT. BECOMING
VFR FRIDAY MORNING.

SHORT TERM: GENERALLY EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION
FRIDAY NIGHT. VARIABLE CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR WITH ANY SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...ALONG WITH ANY OVERNIGHT
FOG. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: FOG WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT UNTIL A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. EXPECT WINDS TO GUST TO
BETWEEN 10-15KTS THIS EVENING. SEAS AND WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH FRIDAY.

SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...FARRAR/FOISY
SHORT TERM...NORCROSS
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...FARRAR/FOISY/NORCROSS
MARINE...FARRAR/FOISY/NORCROSS



000
FXUS61 KGYX 310117 AAB
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
917 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY. A BROAD SHALLOW
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT
AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH
OF NEW ENGLAND. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON MONDAY AND WILL
SLOWLY CROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
LINGER OVER THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
UPDATE...REMAINING STRONGER TSTMS THAT MANAGED TO TAP LINGERING
THETA-E AXIS ARE EXITING THE FORECAST AREA TO THE E. DIMINISHING
INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE IN THIS AREA IS ALLOWING STORMS TO
GRADUALLY WEAKEN WITH EWD MOVEMENT.

CLEARING IS WORKING IN QUICKLY BEHIND THE SHOWERS/STORMS. THE WET
GROUND AND COOLING TEMPS WILL PROMOTE FOG IN LOW LYING AREAS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AT 18Z THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WAS ENTERING
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. NWS DOPPLER RADAR MOSAIC SHOWED A LINE OF
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...WITH WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION FORMING OUT AHEAD OF THE
MAIN LINE OF CONVECTION. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW MID COAST
MAINE LOCATIONS...TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE 80S AND LOWER
90S AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH DEWPOINTS RANGING FROM THE MID 60S TO
LOWER 70S. WHILE SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETERS ARE NOT
IMPRESSIVE...CAN`T ENTIRELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED CELL OR TWO WITH
STRONG WIND GUSTS AS THE CONVECTION MOVES INTO OUR AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. PRECIPITATION WILL END FROM WEST TO
EAST THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT SWEEPS EASTWARD...WITH ANY
LINGERING ACTIVITY SLIDING OFFSHORE BY MIDNIGHT ALONG WITH THE
FRONT. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM UPPER 50S TO MID 60S WITH
PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ON FRIDAY...WESTERLY FLOW AND WEAK RIDGING SHOULD PROVIDE A
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. HOWEVER...CAN`T ENTIRELY RULE OUT A
BRIEF SHOWER IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN NEAR OUR INTERNATIONAL BORDER.
IT`LL BE LESS HUMID WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S. PARTLY CLOUDY
FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH A LOW CHANCE OF A SHOWER AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR
FAR NORTHERN AND WESTERN SECTIONS AHEAD OF NEXT DISTURBANCE. LOWS
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO THE LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BROAD SHALLOW SURFACE TROUGH REFLECTING A LARGE CLOSED LOW
OVER EAST CENTRAL CANADA WILL SETTLE IN FOR THE WEEKEND. A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH IN FROM THE WEST SATURDAY AFTERNOON
KICKING OFF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. GOOD SHEAR WILL BE IN
PLACE SO THE POTENTIAL WILL BE THERE FOR SOME SEVERE STORMS.
HIGH TEMPS ON SATURDAY WILL BE FROM THE MID 70S TO MID 80S.

THE FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS WILL END
DURING THE EVENING. LOOKING FOR PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL BRING INSTABILITY AND SOME SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTHERN ZONES ON SUNDAY. CAPES WILL
BE RATHER MARGINAL BUT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE ISOLATED
CONVECTION. REMAINDER OF THE REGION WILL SEE A MIX OF SUN AND
CLOUDS. HIGHS ONCE AGAIN WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO MID 80S.

ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE ROTATING AROUND THE CLOSED LOW WILL
BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT BUT THESE WILL BE BRIEF
AND WIDELY SCATTERED AND WILL PUSH EAST OF THE REGION BY MONDAY
MORNING.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION MONDAY. AREA MOST LIKELY
TO SEE CONVECTION WOULD BE NORTHWEST ZONES. EXPECT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES
IN FROM THE WEST. SLOW MOVING FRONT WILL FINALLY CROSS THE AREA ON
TUESDAY. SHOULD BE ENOUGH LINGERING INSTABILITY TO KICK OFF MORE
CONVECTION BEFORE DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR PUSHES IN FROM THE
WEST IN THE AFTERNOON.

CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL SETTLE INTO THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY BRINGING MUCH COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION. COOL AND
UNSTABLE AIR WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A LOT DAYTIME CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE SHOWERS. HIGH WILL AVERAGE OUT BELOW NORMAL FOR MUCH OF
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 11Z SAT/...SHRA AND TSRA ARE CLEARING
TERMINALS AT THIS TIME. CLEARING WILL QUICKLY WORK IN FROM THE
W...AND ALLOW TEMPS TO BEGIN TO FALL. RECENT RNFL WILL COUPLE WITH
THESE TEMPS TO FORM VALLEY FOG IN THE FAVORED LOCATIONS. LEB AND
HIE ARE ALREADY DROPPING TO IFR AND LOWER AT THIS HOUR...AND ARE
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THIS WAY THRU EARLY MORNING.

LONG TERM...VFR SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR
CEILINGS AND VSBY IN SCATTERED DAYTIME CONVECTION.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...THE OUTER WATERS BRIEFLY APPROACH
20 KT AND 5 FT FOR A FEW HOURS TONIGHT WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLD.

LONG TERM...NO PROBLEMS NOTED.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LEGRO



000
FXUS61 KGYX 310117 AAB
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
917 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY. A BROAD SHALLOW
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT
AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH
OF NEW ENGLAND. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON MONDAY AND WILL
SLOWLY CROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
LINGER OVER THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
UPDATE...REMAINING STRONGER TSTMS THAT MANAGED TO TAP LINGERING
THETA-E AXIS ARE EXITING THE FORECAST AREA TO THE E. DIMINISHING
INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE IN THIS AREA IS ALLOWING STORMS TO
GRADUALLY WEAKEN WITH EWD MOVEMENT.

CLEARING IS WORKING IN QUICKLY BEHIND THE SHOWERS/STORMS. THE WET
GROUND AND COOLING TEMPS WILL PROMOTE FOG IN LOW LYING AREAS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AT 18Z THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WAS ENTERING
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. NWS DOPPLER RADAR MOSAIC SHOWED A LINE OF
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...WITH WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION FORMING OUT AHEAD OF THE
MAIN LINE OF CONVECTION. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW MID COAST
MAINE LOCATIONS...TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE 80S AND LOWER
90S AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH DEWPOINTS RANGING FROM THE MID 60S TO
LOWER 70S. WHILE SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETERS ARE NOT
IMPRESSIVE...CAN`T ENTIRELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED CELL OR TWO WITH
STRONG WIND GUSTS AS THE CONVECTION MOVES INTO OUR AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. PRECIPITATION WILL END FROM WEST TO
EAST THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT SWEEPS EASTWARD...WITH ANY
LINGERING ACTIVITY SLIDING OFFSHORE BY MIDNIGHT ALONG WITH THE
FRONT. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM UPPER 50S TO MID 60S WITH
PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ON FRIDAY...WESTERLY FLOW AND WEAK RIDGING SHOULD PROVIDE A
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. HOWEVER...CAN`T ENTIRELY RULE OUT A
BRIEF SHOWER IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN NEAR OUR INTERNATIONAL BORDER.
IT`LL BE LESS HUMID WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S. PARTLY CLOUDY
FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH A LOW CHANCE OF A SHOWER AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR
FAR NORTHERN AND WESTERN SECTIONS AHEAD OF NEXT DISTURBANCE. LOWS
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO THE LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BROAD SHALLOW SURFACE TROUGH REFLECTING A LARGE CLOSED LOW
OVER EAST CENTRAL CANADA WILL SETTLE IN FOR THE WEEKEND. A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH IN FROM THE WEST SATURDAY AFTERNOON
KICKING OFF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. GOOD SHEAR WILL BE IN
PLACE SO THE POTENTIAL WILL BE THERE FOR SOME SEVERE STORMS.
HIGH TEMPS ON SATURDAY WILL BE FROM THE MID 70S TO MID 80S.

THE FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS WILL END
DURING THE EVENING. LOOKING FOR PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL BRING INSTABILITY AND SOME SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTHERN ZONES ON SUNDAY. CAPES WILL
BE RATHER MARGINAL BUT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE ISOLATED
CONVECTION. REMAINDER OF THE REGION WILL SEE A MIX OF SUN AND
CLOUDS. HIGHS ONCE AGAIN WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO MID 80S.

ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE ROTATING AROUND THE CLOSED LOW WILL
BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT BUT THESE WILL BE BRIEF
AND WIDELY SCATTERED AND WILL PUSH EAST OF THE REGION BY MONDAY
MORNING.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION MONDAY. AREA MOST LIKELY
TO SEE CONVECTION WOULD BE NORTHWEST ZONES. EXPECT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES
IN FROM THE WEST. SLOW MOVING FRONT WILL FINALLY CROSS THE AREA ON
TUESDAY. SHOULD BE ENOUGH LINGERING INSTABILITY TO KICK OFF MORE
CONVECTION BEFORE DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR PUSHES IN FROM THE
WEST IN THE AFTERNOON.

CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL SETTLE INTO THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY BRINGING MUCH COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION. COOL AND
UNSTABLE AIR WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A LOT DAYTIME CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE SHOWERS. HIGH WILL AVERAGE OUT BELOW NORMAL FOR MUCH OF
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 11Z SAT/...SHRA AND TSRA ARE CLEARING
TERMINALS AT THIS TIME. CLEARING WILL QUICKLY WORK IN FROM THE
W...AND ALLOW TEMPS TO BEGIN TO FALL. RECENT RNFL WILL COUPLE WITH
THESE TEMPS TO FORM VALLEY FOG IN THE FAVORED LOCATIONS. LEB AND
HIE ARE ALREADY DROPPING TO IFR AND LOWER AT THIS HOUR...AND ARE
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THIS WAY THRU EARLY MORNING.

LONG TERM...VFR SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR
CEILINGS AND VSBY IN SCATTERED DAYTIME CONVECTION.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...THE OUTER WATERS BRIEFLY APPROACH
20 KT AND 5 FT FOR A FEW HOURS TONIGHT WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLD.

LONG TERM...NO PROBLEMS NOTED.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LEGRO




000
FXUS61 KGYX 310117 AAB
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
917 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY. A BROAD SHALLOW
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT
AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH
OF NEW ENGLAND. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON MONDAY AND WILL
SLOWLY CROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
LINGER OVER THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
UPDATE...REMAINING STRONGER TSTMS THAT MANAGED TO TAP LINGERING
THETA-E AXIS ARE EXITING THE FORECAST AREA TO THE E. DIMINISHING
INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE IN THIS AREA IS ALLOWING STORMS TO
GRADUALLY WEAKEN WITH EWD MOVEMENT.

CLEARING IS WORKING IN QUICKLY BEHIND THE SHOWERS/STORMS. THE WET
GROUND AND COOLING TEMPS WILL PROMOTE FOG IN LOW LYING AREAS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AT 18Z THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WAS ENTERING
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. NWS DOPPLER RADAR MOSAIC SHOWED A LINE OF
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...WITH WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION FORMING OUT AHEAD OF THE
MAIN LINE OF CONVECTION. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW MID COAST
MAINE LOCATIONS...TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE 80S AND LOWER
90S AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH DEWPOINTS RANGING FROM THE MID 60S TO
LOWER 70S. WHILE SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETERS ARE NOT
IMPRESSIVE...CAN`T ENTIRELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED CELL OR TWO WITH
STRONG WIND GUSTS AS THE CONVECTION MOVES INTO OUR AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. PRECIPITATION WILL END FROM WEST TO
EAST THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT SWEEPS EASTWARD...WITH ANY
LINGERING ACTIVITY SLIDING OFFSHORE BY MIDNIGHT ALONG WITH THE
FRONT. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM UPPER 50S TO MID 60S WITH
PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ON FRIDAY...WESTERLY FLOW AND WEAK RIDGING SHOULD PROVIDE A
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. HOWEVER...CAN`T ENTIRELY RULE OUT A
BRIEF SHOWER IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN NEAR OUR INTERNATIONAL BORDER.
IT`LL BE LESS HUMID WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S. PARTLY CLOUDY
FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH A LOW CHANCE OF A SHOWER AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR
FAR NORTHERN AND WESTERN SECTIONS AHEAD OF NEXT DISTURBANCE. LOWS
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO THE LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BROAD SHALLOW SURFACE TROUGH REFLECTING A LARGE CLOSED LOW
OVER EAST CENTRAL CANADA WILL SETTLE IN FOR THE WEEKEND. A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH IN FROM THE WEST SATURDAY AFTERNOON
KICKING OFF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. GOOD SHEAR WILL BE IN
PLACE SO THE POTENTIAL WILL BE THERE FOR SOME SEVERE STORMS.
HIGH TEMPS ON SATURDAY WILL BE FROM THE MID 70S TO MID 80S.

THE FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS WILL END
DURING THE EVENING. LOOKING FOR PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL BRING INSTABILITY AND SOME SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTHERN ZONES ON SUNDAY. CAPES WILL
BE RATHER MARGINAL BUT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE ISOLATED
CONVECTION. REMAINDER OF THE REGION WILL SEE A MIX OF SUN AND
CLOUDS. HIGHS ONCE AGAIN WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO MID 80S.

ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE ROTATING AROUND THE CLOSED LOW WILL
BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT BUT THESE WILL BE BRIEF
AND WIDELY SCATTERED AND WILL PUSH EAST OF THE REGION BY MONDAY
MORNING.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION MONDAY. AREA MOST LIKELY
TO SEE CONVECTION WOULD BE NORTHWEST ZONES. EXPECT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES
IN FROM THE WEST. SLOW MOVING FRONT WILL FINALLY CROSS THE AREA ON
TUESDAY. SHOULD BE ENOUGH LINGERING INSTABILITY TO KICK OFF MORE
CONVECTION BEFORE DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR PUSHES IN FROM THE
WEST IN THE AFTERNOON.

CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL SETTLE INTO THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY BRINGING MUCH COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION. COOL AND
UNSTABLE AIR WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A LOT DAYTIME CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE SHOWERS. HIGH WILL AVERAGE OUT BELOW NORMAL FOR MUCH OF
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 11Z SAT/...SHRA AND TSRA ARE CLEARING
TERMINALS AT THIS TIME. CLEARING WILL QUICKLY WORK IN FROM THE
W...AND ALLOW TEMPS TO BEGIN TO FALL. RECENT RNFL WILL COUPLE WITH
THESE TEMPS TO FORM VALLEY FOG IN THE FAVORED LOCATIONS. LEB AND
HIE ARE ALREADY DROPPING TO IFR AND LOWER AT THIS HOUR...AND ARE
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THIS WAY THRU EARLY MORNING.

LONG TERM...VFR SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR
CEILINGS AND VSBY IN SCATTERED DAYTIME CONVECTION.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...THE OUTER WATERS BRIEFLY APPROACH
20 KT AND 5 FT FOR A FEW HOURS TONIGHT WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLD.

LONG TERM...NO PROBLEMS NOTED.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LEGRO




000
FXUS61 KGYX 310117 AAB
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
917 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY. A BROAD SHALLOW
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT
AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH
OF NEW ENGLAND. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON MONDAY AND WILL
SLOWLY CROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
LINGER OVER THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
UPDATE...REMAINING STRONGER TSTMS THAT MANAGED TO TAP LINGERING
THETA-E AXIS ARE EXITING THE FORECAST AREA TO THE E. DIMINISHING
INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE IN THIS AREA IS ALLOWING STORMS TO
GRADUALLY WEAKEN WITH EWD MOVEMENT.

CLEARING IS WORKING IN QUICKLY BEHIND THE SHOWERS/STORMS. THE WET
GROUND AND COOLING TEMPS WILL PROMOTE FOG IN LOW LYING AREAS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AT 18Z THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WAS ENTERING
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. NWS DOPPLER RADAR MOSAIC SHOWED A LINE OF
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...WITH WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION FORMING OUT AHEAD OF THE
MAIN LINE OF CONVECTION. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW MID COAST
MAINE LOCATIONS...TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE 80S AND LOWER
90S AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH DEWPOINTS RANGING FROM THE MID 60S TO
LOWER 70S. WHILE SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETERS ARE NOT
IMPRESSIVE...CAN`T ENTIRELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED CELL OR TWO WITH
STRONG WIND GUSTS AS THE CONVECTION MOVES INTO OUR AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. PRECIPITATION WILL END FROM WEST TO
EAST THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT SWEEPS EASTWARD...WITH ANY
LINGERING ACTIVITY SLIDING OFFSHORE BY MIDNIGHT ALONG WITH THE
FRONT. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM UPPER 50S TO MID 60S WITH
PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ON FRIDAY...WESTERLY FLOW AND WEAK RIDGING SHOULD PROVIDE A
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. HOWEVER...CAN`T ENTIRELY RULE OUT A
BRIEF SHOWER IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN NEAR OUR INTERNATIONAL BORDER.
IT`LL BE LESS HUMID WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S. PARTLY CLOUDY
FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH A LOW CHANCE OF A SHOWER AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR
FAR NORTHERN AND WESTERN SECTIONS AHEAD OF NEXT DISTURBANCE. LOWS
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO THE LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BROAD SHALLOW SURFACE TROUGH REFLECTING A LARGE CLOSED LOW
OVER EAST CENTRAL CANADA WILL SETTLE IN FOR THE WEEKEND. A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH IN FROM THE WEST SATURDAY AFTERNOON
KICKING OFF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. GOOD SHEAR WILL BE IN
PLACE SO THE POTENTIAL WILL BE THERE FOR SOME SEVERE STORMS.
HIGH TEMPS ON SATURDAY WILL BE FROM THE MID 70S TO MID 80S.

THE FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS WILL END
DURING THE EVENING. LOOKING FOR PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL BRING INSTABILITY AND SOME SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTHERN ZONES ON SUNDAY. CAPES WILL
BE RATHER MARGINAL BUT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE ISOLATED
CONVECTION. REMAINDER OF THE REGION WILL SEE A MIX OF SUN AND
CLOUDS. HIGHS ONCE AGAIN WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO MID 80S.

ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE ROTATING AROUND THE CLOSED LOW WILL
BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT BUT THESE WILL BE BRIEF
AND WIDELY SCATTERED AND WILL PUSH EAST OF THE REGION BY MONDAY
MORNING.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION MONDAY. AREA MOST LIKELY
TO SEE CONVECTION WOULD BE NORTHWEST ZONES. EXPECT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES
IN FROM THE WEST. SLOW MOVING FRONT WILL FINALLY CROSS THE AREA ON
TUESDAY. SHOULD BE ENOUGH LINGERING INSTABILITY TO KICK OFF MORE
CONVECTION BEFORE DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR PUSHES IN FROM THE
WEST IN THE AFTERNOON.

CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL SETTLE INTO THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY BRINGING MUCH COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION. COOL AND
UNSTABLE AIR WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A LOT DAYTIME CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE SHOWERS. HIGH WILL AVERAGE OUT BELOW NORMAL FOR MUCH OF
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 11Z SAT/...SHRA AND TSRA ARE CLEARING
TERMINALS AT THIS TIME. CLEARING WILL QUICKLY WORK IN FROM THE
W...AND ALLOW TEMPS TO BEGIN TO FALL. RECENT RNFL WILL COUPLE WITH
THESE TEMPS TO FORM VALLEY FOG IN THE FAVORED LOCATIONS. LEB AND
HIE ARE ALREADY DROPPING TO IFR AND LOWER AT THIS HOUR...AND ARE
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THIS WAY THRU EARLY MORNING.

LONG TERM...VFR SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR
CEILINGS AND VSBY IN SCATTERED DAYTIME CONVECTION.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...THE OUTER WATERS BRIEFLY APPROACH
20 KT AND 5 FT FOR A FEW HOURS TONIGHT WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLD.

LONG TERM...NO PROBLEMS NOTED.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LEGRO




000
FXUS61 KGYX 310117 AAB
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
917 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY. A BROAD SHALLOW
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT
AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH
OF NEW ENGLAND. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON MONDAY AND WILL
SLOWLY CROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
LINGER OVER THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
UPDATE...REMAINING STRONGER TSTMS THAT MANAGED TO TAP LINGERING
THETA-E AXIS ARE EXITING THE FORECAST AREA TO THE E. DIMINISHING
INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE IN THIS AREA IS ALLOWING STORMS TO
GRADUALLY WEAKEN WITH EWD MOVEMENT.

CLEARING IS WORKING IN QUICKLY BEHIND THE SHOWERS/STORMS. THE WET
GROUND AND COOLING TEMPS WILL PROMOTE FOG IN LOW LYING AREAS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AT 18Z THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WAS ENTERING
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. NWS DOPPLER RADAR MOSAIC SHOWED A LINE OF
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...WITH WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION FORMING OUT AHEAD OF THE
MAIN LINE OF CONVECTION. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW MID COAST
MAINE LOCATIONS...TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE 80S AND LOWER
90S AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH DEWPOINTS RANGING FROM THE MID 60S TO
LOWER 70S. WHILE SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETERS ARE NOT
IMPRESSIVE...CAN`T ENTIRELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED CELL OR TWO WITH
STRONG WIND GUSTS AS THE CONVECTION MOVES INTO OUR AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. PRECIPITATION WILL END FROM WEST TO
EAST THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT SWEEPS EASTWARD...WITH ANY
LINGERING ACTIVITY SLIDING OFFSHORE BY MIDNIGHT ALONG WITH THE
FRONT. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM UPPER 50S TO MID 60S WITH
PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ON FRIDAY...WESTERLY FLOW AND WEAK RIDGING SHOULD PROVIDE A
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. HOWEVER...CAN`T ENTIRELY RULE OUT A
BRIEF SHOWER IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN NEAR OUR INTERNATIONAL BORDER.
IT`LL BE LESS HUMID WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S. PARTLY CLOUDY
FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH A LOW CHANCE OF A SHOWER AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR
FAR NORTHERN AND WESTERN SECTIONS AHEAD OF NEXT DISTURBANCE. LOWS
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO THE LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BROAD SHALLOW SURFACE TROUGH REFLECTING A LARGE CLOSED LOW
OVER EAST CENTRAL CANADA WILL SETTLE IN FOR THE WEEKEND. A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH IN FROM THE WEST SATURDAY AFTERNOON
KICKING OFF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. GOOD SHEAR WILL BE IN
PLACE SO THE POTENTIAL WILL BE THERE FOR SOME SEVERE STORMS.
HIGH TEMPS ON SATURDAY WILL BE FROM THE MID 70S TO MID 80S.

THE FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS WILL END
DURING THE EVENING. LOOKING FOR PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL BRING INSTABILITY AND SOME SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTHERN ZONES ON SUNDAY. CAPES WILL
BE RATHER MARGINAL BUT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE ISOLATED
CONVECTION. REMAINDER OF THE REGION WILL SEE A MIX OF SUN AND
CLOUDS. HIGHS ONCE AGAIN WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO MID 80S.

ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE ROTATING AROUND THE CLOSED LOW WILL
BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT BUT THESE WILL BE BRIEF
AND WIDELY SCATTERED AND WILL PUSH EAST OF THE REGION BY MONDAY
MORNING.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION MONDAY. AREA MOST LIKELY
TO SEE CONVECTION WOULD BE NORTHWEST ZONES. EXPECT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES
IN FROM THE WEST. SLOW MOVING FRONT WILL FINALLY CROSS THE AREA ON
TUESDAY. SHOULD BE ENOUGH LINGERING INSTABILITY TO KICK OFF MORE
CONVECTION BEFORE DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR PUSHES IN FROM THE
WEST IN THE AFTERNOON.

CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL SETTLE INTO THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY BRINGING MUCH COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION. COOL AND
UNSTABLE AIR WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A LOT DAYTIME CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE SHOWERS. HIGH WILL AVERAGE OUT BELOW NORMAL FOR MUCH OF
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 11Z SAT/...SHRA AND TSRA ARE CLEARING
TERMINALS AT THIS TIME. CLEARING WILL QUICKLY WORK IN FROM THE
W...AND ALLOW TEMPS TO BEGIN TO FALL. RECENT RNFL WILL COUPLE WITH
THESE TEMPS TO FORM VALLEY FOG IN THE FAVORED LOCATIONS. LEB AND
HIE ARE ALREADY DROPPING TO IFR AND LOWER AT THIS HOUR...AND ARE
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THIS WAY THRU EARLY MORNING.

LONG TERM...VFR SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR
CEILINGS AND VSBY IN SCATTERED DAYTIME CONVECTION.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...THE OUTER WATERS BRIEFLY APPROACH
20 KT AND 5 FT FOR A FEW HOURS TONIGHT WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLD.

LONG TERM...NO PROBLEMS NOTED.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LEGRO




000
FXUS61 KGYX 310117 AAB
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
917 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY. A BROAD SHALLOW
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT
AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH
OF NEW ENGLAND. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON MONDAY AND WILL
SLOWLY CROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
LINGER OVER THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
UPDATE...REMAINING STRONGER TSTMS THAT MANAGED TO TAP LINGERING
THETA-E AXIS ARE EXITING THE FORECAST AREA TO THE E. DIMINISHING
INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE IN THIS AREA IS ALLOWING STORMS TO
GRADUALLY WEAKEN WITH EWD MOVEMENT.

CLEARING IS WORKING IN QUICKLY BEHIND THE SHOWERS/STORMS. THE WET
GROUND AND COOLING TEMPS WILL PROMOTE FOG IN LOW LYING AREAS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AT 18Z THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WAS ENTERING
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. NWS DOPPLER RADAR MOSAIC SHOWED A LINE OF
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...WITH WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION FORMING OUT AHEAD OF THE
MAIN LINE OF CONVECTION. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW MID COAST
MAINE LOCATIONS...TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE 80S AND LOWER
90S AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH DEWPOINTS RANGING FROM THE MID 60S TO
LOWER 70S. WHILE SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETERS ARE NOT
IMPRESSIVE...CAN`T ENTIRELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED CELL OR TWO WITH
STRONG WIND GUSTS AS THE CONVECTION MOVES INTO OUR AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. PRECIPITATION WILL END FROM WEST TO
EAST THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT SWEEPS EASTWARD...WITH ANY
LINGERING ACTIVITY SLIDING OFFSHORE BY MIDNIGHT ALONG WITH THE
FRONT. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM UPPER 50S TO MID 60S WITH
PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ON FRIDAY...WESTERLY FLOW AND WEAK RIDGING SHOULD PROVIDE A
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. HOWEVER...CAN`T ENTIRELY RULE OUT A
BRIEF SHOWER IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN NEAR OUR INTERNATIONAL BORDER.
IT`LL BE LESS HUMID WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S. PARTLY CLOUDY
FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH A LOW CHANCE OF A SHOWER AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR
FAR NORTHERN AND WESTERN SECTIONS AHEAD OF NEXT DISTURBANCE. LOWS
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO THE LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BROAD SHALLOW SURFACE TROUGH REFLECTING A LARGE CLOSED LOW
OVER EAST CENTRAL CANADA WILL SETTLE IN FOR THE WEEKEND. A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH IN FROM THE WEST SATURDAY AFTERNOON
KICKING OFF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. GOOD SHEAR WILL BE IN
PLACE SO THE POTENTIAL WILL BE THERE FOR SOME SEVERE STORMS.
HIGH TEMPS ON SATURDAY WILL BE FROM THE MID 70S TO MID 80S.

THE FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS WILL END
DURING THE EVENING. LOOKING FOR PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL BRING INSTABILITY AND SOME SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTHERN ZONES ON SUNDAY. CAPES WILL
BE RATHER MARGINAL BUT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE ISOLATED
CONVECTION. REMAINDER OF THE REGION WILL SEE A MIX OF SUN AND
CLOUDS. HIGHS ONCE AGAIN WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO MID 80S.

ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE ROTATING AROUND THE CLOSED LOW WILL
BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT BUT THESE WILL BE BRIEF
AND WIDELY SCATTERED AND WILL PUSH EAST OF THE REGION BY MONDAY
MORNING.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION MONDAY. AREA MOST LIKELY
TO SEE CONVECTION WOULD BE NORTHWEST ZONES. EXPECT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES
IN FROM THE WEST. SLOW MOVING FRONT WILL FINALLY CROSS THE AREA ON
TUESDAY. SHOULD BE ENOUGH LINGERING INSTABILITY TO KICK OFF MORE
CONVECTION BEFORE DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR PUSHES IN FROM THE
WEST IN THE AFTERNOON.

CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL SETTLE INTO THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY BRINGING MUCH COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION. COOL AND
UNSTABLE AIR WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A LOT DAYTIME CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE SHOWERS. HIGH WILL AVERAGE OUT BELOW NORMAL FOR MUCH OF
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 11Z SAT/...SHRA AND TSRA ARE CLEARING
TERMINALS AT THIS TIME. CLEARING WILL QUICKLY WORK IN FROM THE
W...AND ALLOW TEMPS TO BEGIN TO FALL. RECENT RNFL WILL COUPLE WITH
THESE TEMPS TO FORM VALLEY FOG IN THE FAVORED LOCATIONS. LEB AND
HIE ARE ALREADY DROPPING TO IFR AND LOWER AT THIS HOUR...AND ARE
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THIS WAY THRU EARLY MORNING.

LONG TERM...VFR SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR
CEILINGS AND VSBY IN SCATTERED DAYTIME CONVECTION.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...THE OUTER WATERS BRIEFLY APPROACH
20 KT AND 5 FT FOR A FEW HOURS TONIGHT WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLD.

LONG TERM...NO PROBLEMS NOTED.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LEGRO




000
FXUS61 KCAR 302313
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
713 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT WITH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS NORTHERN MAINE
ON FRIDAY. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
705 PM UPDATE...
TWEAKED PRECIP CHANCES TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT RADAR TRENDS.
OTHERWISE MINIMAL CHANGES.

SO FAR STORMS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY MINIMAL AND LIMITED TO FAR
NORTH/WEST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. MAIN IMPACT HAS BEEN
GUSTY WINDS TO AROUND 40 MPH AND LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH
LOCALIZED MINOR FLOODING. EXPECT THE SHOWERS WITH LOCAL EMBEDDED
STORMS TO TRANSLATE EAST THROUGH THE EVENING. DON`T ANTICIPATE
ANYTHING TO BECOME SEVERE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LINE OF TSTORMS HAS DVLPD AHD OF COLD FRONT AS AIRMASS
DESTABILIZES. BEST FRCG EXISTS ACRS THE NORTH INTO THE LATE AFTN
AS H5 RIDGE HOLDS TIGHT ACRS DOWNEAST ZONES FOR THE NEXT SVRL HRS.
RIDGE SHUD BEGIN TO FLATTEN BY 00Z AS S/WV LIFTS NORTH THRU CWA.
THUS HV GONE WITH LKLY- CAT POPS OVR THE FAR NW THRU 00Z THEN
DIMINISHING AFT THIS TIME AS UPR LVL SUPPORT SHIFTS OFF TO THE NE.
LINGERING ELEVATED INSTABILITY WL BE ENUF TO KEEP TSTMS GOING
UNTIL CLOSE TO 03Z ACRS ERN AREAS WITH RMNG AREAS JUST SEEING
SHOWERS IN WAKE OF FROPA.

BIGGEST THREAT FM STORMS WL BE LOCALLY HVY RAINFALL THIS AFTN ALONG
WITH GUSTY WINDS. FRZG LVL ARND 14KFT WL PREVENT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
A LARGE HAIL THREAT, UNLESS STORMS CAN BCM ORGANIZED. EXPECT PATCHY
FOG TO DVLP ACRS AREA AFT MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WHERE RAIN OCCURRED.
AREAS OF FOG WL AFFECT COASTAL AREAS THRU DAYBREAK AGAIN.

AFT FRONT PASSES BY 12Z ANOTHER WV CURRENTLY LOCATED OVR THE UPR
MIDWEST WL AFFECT CWA FRI MRNG. EXPECT PCLDY SKIES AS A RESULT OF
VORT MVG THRU WITH ISOLD-SCTD SHOWERS ACRS THE CROWN OF MAINE DRG
THE MRNG HRS THEN QUICKLY LIFTING NORTH AFT 18Z. TEMPS WL BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER ON FRIDAY ACRS THE FAR NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS HUDSON BAY FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...WHILE SEVERAL DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND
THE LOW MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL APPROACH NORTHERN MAINE LATER FRIDAY NIGHT WHILE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CROSSES THE REGION. EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION. THE UPPER DISTURBANCE
WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
RELATIVELY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE
STEEP LAPSE RATES...UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND DIURNAL
INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MOSTLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON WHICH WILL PERSIST INTO THE EVENING. THE
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN DIMINISH OVERNIGHT WITH THE LOSS
OF HEATING AND THE UPPER DISTURBANCE EXITING TO THE EAST LEAVING
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. A SIMILAR SCENARIO WILL THEN OCCUR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WITH ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT NEAR NORMAL LEVELS SATURDAY/SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOOKING AHEAD TO EARLY NEXT WEEK, OUR PATTERN WILL BEGIN WITH UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AND WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ANCHORED IN CENTRAL
CANADA WHILE WARM HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS SITUATED OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST. THIS WILL BRING A POTENTIALLY ACTIVE PATTERN WITH
THE HIGH PUSHING WARM AND HUMID AIR NORTH INTO THE REGION AT THE
SAME TIME SHORTWAVES AND WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEMS SLIDE IN FROM THE
GREAT LAKES BENEATH THE CANADIAN TROUGH. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
WILL BE WARM AND HUMID WITH A SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZE. A FEW SPOTS MAY
GET A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ON MONDAY. A SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE
BOTTOM OF THE TROUGH WILL GLIDE INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT BRINGING
AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SCATTERED SHOWERS
MAY CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY BEFORE THE SHORTWAVE GLIDES OFF TO THE
EAST ALLOWING SOME CLEARING LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AIR WILL THEN FILTER INTO THE REGION LATER
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST INTO QUEBEC
PULLING COOLER AIR IN BEHIND IT. WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WILL BE
UNSEASONABLY COOL WITH A MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY AND SOME LIGHT SHOWERS
OVER THE NORTH. GENERALLY COOL WEATHER MAY LAST INTO NEXT WEEKEND
WITH A TROUGH CENTERED IN THE NORTHEAST.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR DEVELOPING MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH THE NIGHT. BECOMING
VFR FRIDAY MORNING.

SHORT TERM: GENERALLY EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION
FRIDAY NIGHT. VARIABLE CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR WITH ANY SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...ALONG WITH ANY OVERNIGHT
FOG. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: FOG WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT UNTIL A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. EXPECT WINDS TO GUST TO
BETWEEN 10-15KTS THIS EVENING. SEAS AND WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH FRIDAY.

SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...FARRAR/FOISY
SHORT TERM...NORCROSS
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...FARRAR/FOISY/NORCROSS
MARINE...FARRAR/FOISY/NORCROSS




000
FXUS61 KCAR 302313
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
713 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT WITH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS NORTHERN MAINE
ON FRIDAY. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
705 PM UPDATE...
TWEAKED PRECIP CHANCES TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT RADAR TRENDS.
OTHERWISE MINIMAL CHANGES.

SO FAR STORMS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY MINIMAL AND LIMITED TO FAR
NORTH/WEST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. MAIN IMPACT HAS BEEN
GUSTY WINDS TO AROUND 40 MPH AND LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH
LOCALIZED MINOR FLOODING. EXPECT THE SHOWERS WITH LOCAL EMBEDDED
STORMS TO TRANSLATE EAST THROUGH THE EVENING. DON`T ANTICIPATE
ANYTHING TO BECOME SEVERE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LINE OF TSTORMS HAS DVLPD AHD OF COLD FRONT AS AIRMASS
DESTABILIZES. BEST FRCG EXISTS ACRS THE NORTH INTO THE LATE AFTN
AS H5 RIDGE HOLDS TIGHT ACRS DOWNEAST ZONES FOR THE NEXT SVRL HRS.
RIDGE SHUD BEGIN TO FLATTEN BY 00Z AS S/WV LIFTS NORTH THRU CWA.
THUS HV GONE WITH LKLY- CAT POPS OVR THE FAR NW THRU 00Z THEN
DIMINISHING AFT THIS TIME AS UPR LVL SUPPORT SHIFTS OFF TO THE NE.
LINGERING ELEVATED INSTABILITY WL BE ENUF TO KEEP TSTMS GOING
UNTIL CLOSE TO 03Z ACRS ERN AREAS WITH RMNG AREAS JUST SEEING
SHOWERS IN WAKE OF FROPA.

BIGGEST THREAT FM STORMS WL BE LOCALLY HVY RAINFALL THIS AFTN ALONG
WITH GUSTY WINDS. FRZG LVL ARND 14KFT WL PREVENT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
A LARGE HAIL THREAT, UNLESS STORMS CAN BCM ORGANIZED. EXPECT PATCHY
FOG TO DVLP ACRS AREA AFT MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WHERE RAIN OCCURRED.
AREAS OF FOG WL AFFECT COASTAL AREAS THRU DAYBREAK AGAIN.

AFT FRONT PASSES BY 12Z ANOTHER WV CURRENTLY LOCATED OVR THE UPR
MIDWEST WL AFFECT CWA FRI MRNG. EXPECT PCLDY SKIES AS A RESULT OF
VORT MVG THRU WITH ISOLD-SCTD SHOWERS ACRS THE CROWN OF MAINE DRG
THE MRNG HRS THEN QUICKLY LIFTING NORTH AFT 18Z. TEMPS WL BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER ON FRIDAY ACRS THE FAR NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS HUDSON BAY FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...WHILE SEVERAL DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND
THE LOW MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL APPROACH NORTHERN MAINE LATER FRIDAY NIGHT WHILE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CROSSES THE REGION. EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION. THE UPPER DISTURBANCE
WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
RELATIVELY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE
STEEP LAPSE RATES...UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND DIURNAL
INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MOSTLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON WHICH WILL PERSIST INTO THE EVENING. THE
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN DIMINISH OVERNIGHT WITH THE LOSS
OF HEATING AND THE UPPER DISTURBANCE EXITING TO THE EAST LEAVING
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. A SIMILAR SCENARIO WILL THEN OCCUR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WITH ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT NEAR NORMAL LEVELS SATURDAY/SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOOKING AHEAD TO EARLY NEXT WEEK, OUR PATTERN WILL BEGIN WITH UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AND WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ANCHORED IN CENTRAL
CANADA WHILE WARM HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS SITUATED OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST. THIS WILL BRING A POTENTIALLY ACTIVE PATTERN WITH
THE HIGH PUSHING WARM AND HUMID AIR NORTH INTO THE REGION AT THE
SAME TIME SHORTWAVES AND WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEMS SLIDE IN FROM THE
GREAT LAKES BENEATH THE CANADIAN TROUGH. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
WILL BE WARM AND HUMID WITH A SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZE. A FEW SPOTS MAY
GET A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ON MONDAY. A SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE
BOTTOM OF THE TROUGH WILL GLIDE INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT BRINGING
AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SCATTERED SHOWERS
MAY CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY BEFORE THE SHORTWAVE GLIDES OFF TO THE
EAST ALLOWING SOME CLEARING LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AIR WILL THEN FILTER INTO THE REGION LATER
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST INTO QUEBEC
PULLING COOLER AIR IN BEHIND IT. WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WILL BE
UNSEASONABLY COOL WITH A MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY AND SOME LIGHT SHOWERS
OVER THE NORTH. GENERALLY COOL WEATHER MAY LAST INTO NEXT WEEKEND
WITH A TROUGH CENTERED IN THE NORTHEAST.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR DEVELOPING MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH THE NIGHT. BECOMING
VFR FRIDAY MORNING.

SHORT TERM: GENERALLY EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION
FRIDAY NIGHT. VARIABLE CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR WITH ANY SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...ALONG WITH ANY OVERNIGHT
FOG. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: FOG WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT UNTIL A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. EXPECT WINDS TO GUST TO
BETWEEN 10-15KTS THIS EVENING. SEAS AND WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH FRIDAY.

SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...FARRAR/FOISY
SHORT TERM...NORCROSS
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...FARRAR/FOISY/NORCROSS
MARINE...FARRAR/FOISY/NORCROSS



000
FXUS61 KCAR 302313
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
713 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT WITH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS NORTHERN MAINE
ON FRIDAY. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
705 PM UPDATE...
TWEAKED PRECIP CHANCES TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT RADAR TRENDS.
OTHERWISE MINIMAL CHANGES.

SO FAR STORMS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY MINIMAL AND LIMITED TO FAR
NORTH/WEST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. MAIN IMPACT HAS BEEN
GUSTY WINDS TO AROUND 40 MPH AND LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH
LOCALIZED MINOR FLOODING. EXPECT THE SHOWERS WITH LOCAL EMBEDDED
STORMS TO TRANSLATE EAST THROUGH THE EVENING. DON`T ANTICIPATE
ANYTHING TO BECOME SEVERE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LINE OF TSTORMS HAS DVLPD AHD OF COLD FRONT AS AIRMASS
DESTABILIZES. BEST FRCG EXISTS ACRS THE NORTH INTO THE LATE AFTN
AS H5 RIDGE HOLDS TIGHT ACRS DOWNEAST ZONES FOR THE NEXT SVRL HRS.
RIDGE SHUD BEGIN TO FLATTEN BY 00Z AS S/WV LIFTS NORTH THRU CWA.
THUS HV GONE WITH LKLY- CAT POPS OVR THE FAR NW THRU 00Z THEN
DIMINISHING AFT THIS TIME AS UPR LVL SUPPORT SHIFTS OFF TO THE NE.
LINGERING ELEVATED INSTABILITY WL BE ENUF TO KEEP TSTMS GOING
UNTIL CLOSE TO 03Z ACRS ERN AREAS WITH RMNG AREAS JUST SEEING
SHOWERS IN WAKE OF FROPA.

BIGGEST THREAT FM STORMS WL BE LOCALLY HVY RAINFALL THIS AFTN ALONG
WITH GUSTY WINDS. FRZG LVL ARND 14KFT WL PREVENT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
A LARGE HAIL THREAT, UNLESS STORMS CAN BCM ORGANIZED. EXPECT PATCHY
FOG TO DVLP ACRS AREA AFT MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WHERE RAIN OCCURRED.
AREAS OF FOG WL AFFECT COASTAL AREAS THRU DAYBREAK AGAIN.

AFT FRONT PASSES BY 12Z ANOTHER WV CURRENTLY LOCATED OVR THE UPR
MIDWEST WL AFFECT CWA FRI MRNG. EXPECT PCLDY SKIES AS A RESULT OF
VORT MVG THRU WITH ISOLD-SCTD SHOWERS ACRS THE CROWN OF MAINE DRG
THE MRNG HRS THEN QUICKLY LIFTING NORTH AFT 18Z. TEMPS WL BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER ON FRIDAY ACRS THE FAR NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS HUDSON BAY FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...WHILE SEVERAL DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND
THE LOW MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL APPROACH NORTHERN MAINE LATER FRIDAY NIGHT WHILE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CROSSES THE REGION. EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION. THE UPPER DISTURBANCE
WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
RELATIVELY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE
STEEP LAPSE RATES...UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND DIURNAL
INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MOSTLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON WHICH WILL PERSIST INTO THE EVENING. THE
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN DIMINISH OVERNIGHT WITH THE LOSS
OF HEATING AND THE UPPER DISTURBANCE EXITING TO THE EAST LEAVING
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. A SIMILAR SCENARIO WILL THEN OCCUR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WITH ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT NEAR NORMAL LEVELS SATURDAY/SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOOKING AHEAD TO EARLY NEXT WEEK, OUR PATTERN WILL BEGIN WITH UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AND WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ANCHORED IN CENTRAL
CANADA WHILE WARM HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS SITUATED OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST. THIS WILL BRING A POTENTIALLY ACTIVE PATTERN WITH
THE HIGH PUSHING WARM AND HUMID AIR NORTH INTO THE REGION AT THE
SAME TIME SHORTWAVES AND WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEMS SLIDE IN FROM THE
GREAT LAKES BENEATH THE CANADIAN TROUGH. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
WILL BE WARM AND HUMID WITH A SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZE. A FEW SPOTS MAY
GET A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ON MONDAY. A SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE
BOTTOM OF THE TROUGH WILL GLIDE INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT BRINGING
AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SCATTERED SHOWERS
MAY CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY BEFORE THE SHORTWAVE GLIDES OFF TO THE
EAST ALLOWING SOME CLEARING LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AIR WILL THEN FILTER INTO THE REGION LATER
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST INTO QUEBEC
PULLING COOLER AIR IN BEHIND IT. WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WILL BE
UNSEASONABLY COOL WITH A MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY AND SOME LIGHT SHOWERS
OVER THE NORTH. GENERALLY COOL WEATHER MAY LAST INTO NEXT WEEKEND
WITH A TROUGH CENTERED IN THE NORTHEAST.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR DEVELOPING MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH THE NIGHT. BECOMING
VFR FRIDAY MORNING.

SHORT TERM: GENERALLY EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION
FRIDAY NIGHT. VARIABLE CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR WITH ANY SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...ALONG WITH ANY OVERNIGHT
FOG. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: FOG WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT UNTIL A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. EXPECT WINDS TO GUST TO
BETWEEN 10-15KTS THIS EVENING. SEAS AND WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH FRIDAY.

SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...FARRAR/FOISY
SHORT TERM...NORCROSS
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...FARRAR/FOISY/NORCROSS
MARINE...FARRAR/FOISY/NORCROSS



000
FXUS61 KCAR 302313
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
713 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT WITH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS NORTHERN MAINE
ON FRIDAY. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
705 PM UPDATE...
TWEAKED PRECIP CHANCES TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT RADAR TRENDS.
OTHERWISE MINIMAL CHANGES.

SO FAR STORMS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY MINIMAL AND LIMITED TO FAR
NORTH/WEST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. MAIN IMPACT HAS BEEN
GUSTY WINDS TO AROUND 40 MPH AND LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH
LOCALIZED MINOR FLOODING. EXPECT THE SHOWERS WITH LOCAL EMBEDDED
STORMS TO TRANSLATE EAST THROUGH THE EVENING. DON`T ANTICIPATE
ANYTHING TO BECOME SEVERE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LINE OF TSTORMS HAS DVLPD AHD OF COLD FRONT AS AIRMASS
DESTABILIZES. BEST FRCG EXISTS ACRS THE NORTH INTO THE LATE AFTN
AS H5 RIDGE HOLDS TIGHT ACRS DOWNEAST ZONES FOR THE NEXT SVRL HRS.
RIDGE SHUD BEGIN TO FLATTEN BY 00Z AS S/WV LIFTS NORTH THRU CWA.
THUS HV GONE WITH LKLY- CAT POPS OVR THE FAR NW THRU 00Z THEN
DIMINISHING AFT THIS TIME AS UPR LVL SUPPORT SHIFTS OFF TO THE NE.
LINGERING ELEVATED INSTABILITY WL BE ENUF TO KEEP TSTMS GOING
UNTIL CLOSE TO 03Z ACRS ERN AREAS WITH RMNG AREAS JUST SEEING
SHOWERS IN WAKE OF FROPA.

BIGGEST THREAT FM STORMS WL BE LOCALLY HVY RAINFALL THIS AFTN ALONG
WITH GUSTY WINDS. FRZG LVL ARND 14KFT WL PREVENT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
A LARGE HAIL THREAT, UNLESS STORMS CAN BCM ORGANIZED. EXPECT PATCHY
FOG TO DVLP ACRS AREA AFT MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WHERE RAIN OCCURRED.
AREAS OF FOG WL AFFECT COASTAL AREAS THRU DAYBREAK AGAIN.

AFT FRONT PASSES BY 12Z ANOTHER WV CURRENTLY LOCATED OVR THE UPR
MIDWEST WL AFFECT CWA FRI MRNG. EXPECT PCLDY SKIES AS A RESULT OF
VORT MVG THRU WITH ISOLD-SCTD SHOWERS ACRS THE CROWN OF MAINE DRG
THE MRNG HRS THEN QUICKLY LIFTING NORTH AFT 18Z. TEMPS WL BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER ON FRIDAY ACRS THE FAR NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS HUDSON BAY FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...WHILE SEVERAL DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND
THE LOW MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL APPROACH NORTHERN MAINE LATER FRIDAY NIGHT WHILE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CROSSES THE REGION. EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION. THE UPPER DISTURBANCE
WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
RELATIVELY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE
STEEP LAPSE RATES...UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND DIURNAL
INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MOSTLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON WHICH WILL PERSIST INTO THE EVENING. THE
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN DIMINISH OVERNIGHT WITH THE LOSS
OF HEATING AND THE UPPER DISTURBANCE EXITING TO THE EAST LEAVING
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. A SIMILAR SCENARIO WILL THEN OCCUR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WITH ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT NEAR NORMAL LEVELS SATURDAY/SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOOKING AHEAD TO EARLY NEXT WEEK, OUR PATTERN WILL BEGIN WITH UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AND WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ANCHORED IN CENTRAL
CANADA WHILE WARM HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS SITUATED OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST. THIS WILL BRING A POTENTIALLY ACTIVE PATTERN WITH
THE HIGH PUSHING WARM AND HUMID AIR NORTH INTO THE REGION AT THE
SAME TIME SHORTWAVES AND WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEMS SLIDE IN FROM THE
GREAT LAKES BENEATH THE CANADIAN TROUGH. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
WILL BE WARM AND HUMID WITH A SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZE. A FEW SPOTS MAY
GET A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ON MONDAY. A SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE
BOTTOM OF THE TROUGH WILL GLIDE INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT BRINGING
AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SCATTERED SHOWERS
MAY CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY BEFORE THE SHORTWAVE GLIDES OFF TO THE
EAST ALLOWING SOME CLEARING LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AIR WILL THEN FILTER INTO THE REGION LATER
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST INTO QUEBEC
PULLING COOLER AIR IN BEHIND IT. WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WILL BE
UNSEASONABLY COOL WITH A MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY AND SOME LIGHT SHOWERS
OVER THE NORTH. GENERALLY COOL WEATHER MAY LAST INTO NEXT WEEKEND
WITH A TROUGH CENTERED IN THE NORTHEAST.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR DEVELOPING MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH THE NIGHT. BECOMING
VFR FRIDAY MORNING.

SHORT TERM: GENERALLY EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION
FRIDAY NIGHT. VARIABLE CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR WITH ANY SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...ALONG WITH ANY OVERNIGHT
FOG. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: FOG WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT UNTIL A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. EXPECT WINDS TO GUST TO
BETWEEN 10-15KTS THIS EVENING. SEAS AND WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH FRIDAY.

SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...FARRAR/FOISY
SHORT TERM...NORCROSS
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...FARRAR/FOISY/NORCROSS
MARINE...FARRAR/FOISY/NORCROSS



000
FXUS61 KCAR 302313
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
713 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT WITH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS NORTHERN MAINE
ON FRIDAY. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
705 PM UPDATE...
TWEAKED PRECIP CHANCES TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT RADAR TRENDS.
OTHERWISE MINIMAL CHANGES.

SO FAR STORMS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY MINIMAL AND LIMITED TO FAR
NORTH/WEST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. MAIN IMPACT HAS BEEN
GUSTY WINDS TO AROUND 40 MPH AND LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH
LOCALIZED MINOR FLOODING. EXPECT THE SHOWERS WITH LOCAL EMBEDDED
STORMS TO TRANSLATE EAST THROUGH THE EVENING. DON`T ANTICIPATE
ANYTHING TO BECOME SEVERE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LINE OF TSTORMS HAS DVLPD AHD OF COLD FRONT AS AIRMASS
DESTABILIZES. BEST FRCG EXISTS ACRS THE NORTH INTO THE LATE AFTN
AS H5 RIDGE HOLDS TIGHT ACRS DOWNEAST ZONES FOR THE NEXT SVRL HRS.
RIDGE SHUD BEGIN TO FLATTEN BY 00Z AS S/WV LIFTS NORTH THRU CWA.
THUS HV GONE WITH LKLY- CAT POPS OVR THE FAR NW THRU 00Z THEN
DIMINISHING AFT THIS TIME AS UPR LVL SUPPORT SHIFTS OFF TO THE NE.
LINGERING ELEVATED INSTABILITY WL BE ENUF TO KEEP TSTMS GOING
UNTIL CLOSE TO 03Z ACRS ERN AREAS WITH RMNG AREAS JUST SEEING
SHOWERS IN WAKE OF FROPA.

BIGGEST THREAT FM STORMS WL BE LOCALLY HVY RAINFALL THIS AFTN ALONG
WITH GUSTY WINDS. FRZG LVL ARND 14KFT WL PREVENT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
A LARGE HAIL THREAT, UNLESS STORMS CAN BCM ORGANIZED. EXPECT PATCHY
FOG TO DVLP ACRS AREA AFT MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WHERE RAIN OCCURRED.
AREAS OF FOG WL AFFECT COASTAL AREAS THRU DAYBREAK AGAIN.

AFT FRONT PASSES BY 12Z ANOTHER WV CURRENTLY LOCATED OVR THE UPR
MIDWEST WL AFFECT CWA FRI MRNG. EXPECT PCLDY SKIES AS A RESULT OF
VORT MVG THRU WITH ISOLD-SCTD SHOWERS ACRS THE CROWN OF MAINE DRG
THE MRNG HRS THEN QUICKLY LIFTING NORTH AFT 18Z. TEMPS WL BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER ON FRIDAY ACRS THE FAR NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS HUDSON BAY FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...WHILE SEVERAL DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND
THE LOW MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL APPROACH NORTHERN MAINE LATER FRIDAY NIGHT WHILE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CROSSES THE REGION. EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION. THE UPPER DISTURBANCE
WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
RELATIVELY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE
STEEP LAPSE RATES...UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND DIURNAL
INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MOSTLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON WHICH WILL PERSIST INTO THE EVENING. THE
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN DIMINISH OVERNIGHT WITH THE LOSS
OF HEATING AND THE UPPER DISTURBANCE EXITING TO THE EAST LEAVING
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. A SIMILAR SCENARIO WILL THEN OCCUR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WITH ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT NEAR NORMAL LEVELS SATURDAY/SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOOKING AHEAD TO EARLY NEXT WEEK, OUR PATTERN WILL BEGIN WITH UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AND WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ANCHORED IN CENTRAL
CANADA WHILE WARM HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS SITUATED OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST. THIS WILL BRING A POTENTIALLY ACTIVE PATTERN WITH
THE HIGH PUSHING WARM AND HUMID AIR NORTH INTO THE REGION AT THE
SAME TIME SHORTWAVES AND WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEMS SLIDE IN FROM THE
GREAT LAKES BENEATH THE CANADIAN TROUGH. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
WILL BE WARM AND HUMID WITH A SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZE. A FEW SPOTS MAY
GET A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ON MONDAY. A SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE
BOTTOM OF THE TROUGH WILL GLIDE INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT BRINGING
AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SCATTERED SHOWERS
MAY CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY BEFORE THE SHORTWAVE GLIDES OFF TO THE
EAST ALLOWING SOME CLEARING LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AIR WILL THEN FILTER INTO THE REGION LATER
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST INTO QUEBEC
PULLING COOLER AIR IN BEHIND IT. WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WILL BE
UNSEASONABLY COOL WITH A MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY AND SOME LIGHT SHOWERS
OVER THE NORTH. GENERALLY COOL WEATHER MAY LAST INTO NEXT WEEKEND
WITH A TROUGH CENTERED IN THE NORTHEAST.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR DEVELOPING MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH THE NIGHT. BECOMING
VFR FRIDAY MORNING.

SHORT TERM: GENERALLY EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION
FRIDAY NIGHT. VARIABLE CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR WITH ANY SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...ALONG WITH ANY OVERNIGHT
FOG. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: FOG WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT UNTIL A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. EXPECT WINDS TO GUST TO
BETWEEN 10-15KTS THIS EVENING. SEAS AND WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH FRIDAY.

SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...FARRAR/FOISY
SHORT TERM...NORCROSS
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...FARRAR/FOISY/NORCROSS
MARINE...FARRAR/FOISY/NORCROSS



000
FXUS61 KCAR 302313
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
713 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT WITH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS NORTHERN MAINE
ON FRIDAY. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
705 PM UPDATE...
TWEAKED PRECIP CHANCES TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT RADAR TRENDS.
OTHERWISE MINIMAL CHANGES.

SO FAR STORMS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY MINIMAL AND LIMITED TO FAR
NORTH/WEST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. MAIN IMPACT HAS BEEN
GUSTY WINDS TO AROUND 40 MPH AND LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH
LOCALIZED MINOR FLOODING. EXPECT THE SHOWERS WITH LOCAL EMBEDDED
STORMS TO TRANSLATE EAST THROUGH THE EVENING. DON`T ANTICIPATE
ANYTHING TO BECOME SEVERE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LINE OF TSTORMS HAS DVLPD AHD OF COLD FRONT AS AIRMASS
DESTABILIZES. BEST FRCG EXISTS ACRS THE NORTH INTO THE LATE AFTN
AS H5 RIDGE HOLDS TIGHT ACRS DOWNEAST ZONES FOR THE NEXT SVRL HRS.
RIDGE SHUD BEGIN TO FLATTEN BY 00Z AS S/WV LIFTS NORTH THRU CWA.
THUS HV GONE WITH LKLY- CAT POPS OVR THE FAR NW THRU 00Z THEN
DIMINISHING AFT THIS TIME AS UPR LVL SUPPORT SHIFTS OFF TO THE NE.
LINGERING ELEVATED INSTABILITY WL BE ENUF TO KEEP TSTMS GOING
UNTIL CLOSE TO 03Z ACRS ERN AREAS WITH RMNG AREAS JUST SEEING
SHOWERS IN WAKE OF FROPA.

BIGGEST THREAT FM STORMS WL BE LOCALLY HVY RAINFALL THIS AFTN ALONG
WITH GUSTY WINDS. FRZG LVL ARND 14KFT WL PREVENT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
A LARGE HAIL THREAT, UNLESS STORMS CAN BCM ORGANIZED. EXPECT PATCHY
FOG TO DVLP ACRS AREA AFT MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WHERE RAIN OCCURRED.
AREAS OF FOG WL AFFECT COASTAL AREAS THRU DAYBREAK AGAIN.

AFT FRONT PASSES BY 12Z ANOTHER WV CURRENTLY LOCATED OVR THE UPR
MIDWEST WL AFFECT CWA FRI MRNG. EXPECT PCLDY SKIES AS A RESULT OF
VORT MVG THRU WITH ISOLD-SCTD SHOWERS ACRS THE CROWN OF MAINE DRG
THE MRNG HRS THEN QUICKLY LIFTING NORTH AFT 18Z. TEMPS WL BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER ON FRIDAY ACRS THE FAR NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS HUDSON BAY FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...WHILE SEVERAL DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND
THE LOW MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL APPROACH NORTHERN MAINE LATER FRIDAY NIGHT WHILE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CROSSES THE REGION. EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION. THE UPPER DISTURBANCE
WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
RELATIVELY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE
STEEP LAPSE RATES...UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND DIURNAL
INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MOSTLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON WHICH WILL PERSIST INTO THE EVENING. THE
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN DIMINISH OVERNIGHT WITH THE LOSS
OF HEATING AND THE UPPER DISTURBANCE EXITING TO THE EAST LEAVING
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. A SIMILAR SCENARIO WILL THEN OCCUR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WITH ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT NEAR NORMAL LEVELS SATURDAY/SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOOKING AHEAD TO EARLY NEXT WEEK, OUR PATTERN WILL BEGIN WITH UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AND WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ANCHORED IN CENTRAL
CANADA WHILE WARM HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS SITUATED OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST. THIS WILL BRING A POTENTIALLY ACTIVE PATTERN WITH
THE HIGH PUSHING WARM AND HUMID AIR NORTH INTO THE REGION AT THE
SAME TIME SHORTWAVES AND WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEMS SLIDE IN FROM THE
GREAT LAKES BENEATH THE CANADIAN TROUGH. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
WILL BE WARM AND HUMID WITH A SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZE. A FEW SPOTS MAY
GET A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ON MONDAY. A SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE
BOTTOM OF THE TROUGH WILL GLIDE INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT BRINGING
AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SCATTERED SHOWERS
MAY CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY BEFORE THE SHORTWAVE GLIDES OFF TO THE
EAST ALLOWING SOME CLEARING LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AIR WILL THEN FILTER INTO THE REGION LATER
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST INTO QUEBEC
PULLING COOLER AIR IN BEHIND IT. WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WILL BE
UNSEASONABLY COOL WITH A MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY AND SOME LIGHT SHOWERS
OVER THE NORTH. GENERALLY COOL WEATHER MAY LAST INTO NEXT WEEKEND
WITH A TROUGH CENTERED IN THE NORTHEAST.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR DEVELOPING MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH THE NIGHT. BECOMING
VFR FRIDAY MORNING.

SHORT TERM: GENERALLY EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION
FRIDAY NIGHT. VARIABLE CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR WITH ANY SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...ALONG WITH ANY OVERNIGHT
FOG. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: FOG WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT UNTIL A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. EXPECT WINDS TO GUST TO
BETWEEN 10-15KTS THIS EVENING. SEAS AND WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH FRIDAY.

SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...FARRAR/FOISY
SHORT TERM...NORCROSS
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...FARRAR/FOISY/NORCROSS
MARINE...FARRAR/FOISY/NORCROSS



000
FXUS61 KGYX 302114 AAA
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
514 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY. A BROAD SHALLOW
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT
AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH
OF NEW ENGLAND. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON MONDAY AND WILL
SLOWLY CROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
LINGER OVER THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...A LINE OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED STRONGER STORMS CONTINUES
TO ADVANCE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AT THIS HOUR. POCKETS OF AT LEAST
MARGINAL INSTABILITY HAVE ALLOWED FOR SOME OF THESE ISOLATED
STRONGER CELLS TO DEVELOP WITHIN AND AHEAD OF THE LINE.
HOWEVER...WITH TIME THE MORE STABLE MARINE ENVIRONMENT NEAR THE
COAST WILL LIMIT STRENGTH OF CONVECTION. APART FROM SRN NH...WHERE
INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THE LONGEST...THE MAIN THREAT
APPEARS TO BE TRANSITIONING TOWARDS BRIEF HEAVY RNFL.

HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS TO REFLECT LATEST TIMING BASED ON RADAR AND
MESOSCALE MODEL TRENDS...AS WELL AS ADJUSTED QPF GRIDS TO ISOLATE
THE AREAS AT THE GREATEST RISK FOR HEAVIER PCPN.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AT 18Z THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WAS ENTERING
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. NWS DOPPLER RADAR MOSAIC SHOWED A LINE OF
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...WITH WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION FORMING OUT AHEAD OF THE
MAIN LINE OF CONVECTION. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW MID COAST
MAINE LOCATIONS...TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE 80S AND LOWER
90S AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH DEWPOINTS RANGING FROM THE MID 60S TO
LOWER 70S. WHILE SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETERS ARE NOT
IMPRESSIVE...CAN`T ENTIRELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED CELL OR TWO WITH
STRONG WIND GUSTS AS THE CONVECTION MOVES INTO OUR AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. PRECIPITATION WILL END FROM WEST TO
EAST THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT SWEEPS EASTWARD...WITH ANY
LINGERING ACTIVITY SLIDING OFFSHORE BY MIDNIGHT ALONG WITH THE
FRONT. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM UPPER 50S TO MID 60S WITH
PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ON FRIDAY...WESTERLY FLOW AND WEAK RIDGING SHOULD PROVIDE A
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. HOWEVER...CAN`T ENTIRELY RULE OUT A
BRIEF SHOWER IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN NEAR OUR INTERNATIONAL BORDER.
IT`LL BE LESS HUMID WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S. PARTLY CLOUDY
FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH A LOW CHANCE OF A SHOWER AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR
FAR NORTHERN AND WESTERN SECTIONS AHEAD OF NEXT DISTURBANCE. LOWS
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO THE LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BROAD SHALLOW SURFACE TROUGH REFLECTING A LARGE CLOSED LOW
OVER EAST CENTRAL CANADA WILL SETTLE IN FOR THE WEEKEND. A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH IN FROM THE WEST SATURDAY AFTERNOON
KICKING OFF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. GOOD SHEAR WILL BE IN
PLACE SO THE POTENTIAL WILL BE THERE FOR SOME SEVERE STORMS.
HIGH TEMPS ON SATURDAY WILL BE FROM THE MID 70S TO MID 80S.

THE FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS WILL END
DURING THE EVENING. LOOKING FOR PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL BRING INSTABILITY AND SOME SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTHERN ZONES ON SUNDAY. CAPES WILL
BE RATHER MARGINAL BUT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE ISOLATED
CONVECTION. REMAINDER OF THE REGION WILL SEE A MIX OF SUN AND
CLOUDS. HIGHS ONCE AGAIN WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO MID 80S.

ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE ROTATING AROUND THE CLOSED LOW WILL
BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT BUT THESE WILL BE BRIEF
AND WIDELY SCATTERED AND WILL PUSH EAST OF THE REGION BY MONDAY
MORNING.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION MONDAY. AREA MOST LIKELY
TO SEE CONVECTION WOULD BE NORTHWEST ZONES. EXPECT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES
IN FROM THE WEST. SLOW MOVING FRONT WILL FINALLY CROSS THE AREA ON
TUESDAY. SHOULD BE ENOUGH LINGERING INSTABILITY TO KICK OFF MORE
CONVECTION BEFORE DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR PUSHES IN FROM THE
WEST IN THE AFTERNOON.

CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL SETTLE INTO THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY BRINGING MUCH COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION. COOL AND
UNSTABLE AIR WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A LOT DAYTIME CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE SHOWERS. HIGH WILL AVERAGE OUT BELOW NORMAL FOR MUCH OF
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 11Z SAT/...AREAS OF MVFR THROUGH 06Z IN SHRA
AND SCT TSRA. LCL IFR PSBL IN FOG AND STRATUS BTW 06 AND 12Z FRI.
VFR THROUGHOUT FRI AND FRI NIGHT.

LONG TERM...VFR SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR
CEILINGS AND VSBY IN SCATTERED DAYTIME CONVECTION.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...THE OUTER WATERS BRIEFLY APPROACH
20 KT AND 5 FT FOR A FEW HOURS TONIGHT WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLD.

LONG TERM...NO PROBLEMS NOTED.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LEGRO



000
FXUS61 KGYX 302114 AAA
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
514 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY. A BROAD SHALLOW
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT
AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH
OF NEW ENGLAND. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON MONDAY AND WILL
SLOWLY CROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
LINGER OVER THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...A LINE OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED STRONGER STORMS CONTINUES
TO ADVANCE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AT THIS HOUR. POCKETS OF AT LEAST
MARGINAL INSTABILITY HAVE ALLOWED FOR SOME OF THESE ISOLATED
STRONGER CELLS TO DEVELOP WITHIN AND AHEAD OF THE LINE.
HOWEVER...WITH TIME THE MORE STABLE MARINE ENVIRONMENT NEAR THE
COAST WILL LIMIT STRENGTH OF CONVECTION. APART FROM SRN NH...WHERE
INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THE LONGEST...THE MAIN THREAT
APPEARS TO BE TRANSITIONING TOWARDS BRIEF HEAVY RNFL.

HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS TO REFLECT LATEST TIMING BASED ON RADAR AND
MESOSCALE MODEL TRENDS...AS WELL AS ADJUSTED QPF GRIDS TO ISOLATE
THE AREAS AT THE GREATEST RISK FOR HEAVIER PCPN.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AT 18Z THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WAS ENTERING
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. NWS DOPPLER RADAR MOSAIC SHOWED A LINE OF
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...WITH WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION FORMING OUT AHEAD OF THE
MAIN LINE OF CONVECTION. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW MID COAST
MAINE LOCATIONS...TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE 80S AND LOWER
90S AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH DEWPOINTS RANGING FROM THE MID 60S TO
LOWER 70S. WHILE SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETERS ARE NOT
IMPRESSIVE...CAN`T ENTIRELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED CELL OR TWO WITH
STRONG WIND GUSTS AS THE CONVECTION MOVES INTO OUR AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. PRECIPITATION WILL END FROM WEST TO
EAST THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT SWEEPS EASTWARD...WITH ANY
LINGERING ACTIVITY SLIDING OFFSHORE BY MIDNIGHT ALONG WITH THE
FRONT. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM UPPER 50S TO MID 60S WITH
PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ON FRIDAY...WESTERLY FLOW AND WEAK RIDGING SHOULD PROVIDE A
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. HOWEVER...CAN`T ENTIRELY RULE OUT A
BRIEF SHOWER IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN NEAR OUR INTERNATIONAL BORDER.
IT`LL BE LESS HUMID WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S. PARTLY CLOUDY
FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH A LOW CHANCE OF A SHOWER AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR
FAR NORTHERN AND WESTERN SECTIONS AHEAD OF NEXT DISTURBANCE. LOWS
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO THE LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BROAD SHALLOW SURFACE TROUGH REFLECTING A LARGE CLOSED LOW
OVER EAST CENTRAL CANADA WILL SETTLE IN FOR THE WEEKEND. A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH IN FROM THE WEST SATURDAY AFTERNOON
KICKING OFF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. GOOD SHEAR WILL BE IN
PLACE SO THE POTENTIAL WILL BE THERE FOR SOME SEVERE STORMS.
HIGH TEMPS ON SATURDAY WILL BE FROM THE MID 70S TO MID 80S.

THE FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS WILL END
DURING THE EVENING. LOOKING FOR PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL BRING INSTABILITY AND SOME SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTHERN ZONES ON SUNDAY. CAPES WILL
BE RATHER MARGINAL BUT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE ISOLATED
CONVECTION. REMAINDER OF THE REGION WILL SEE A MIX OF SUN AND
CLOUDS. HIGHS ONCE AGAIN WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO MID 80S.

ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE ROTATING AROUND THE CLOSED LOW WILL
BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT BUT THESE WILL BE BRIEF
AND WIDELY SCATTERED AND WILL PUSH EAST OF THE REGION BY MONDAY
MORNING.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION MONDAY. AREA MOST LIKELY
TO SEE CONVECTION WOULD BE NORTHWEST ZONES. EXPECT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES
IN FROM THE WEST. SLOW MOVING FRONT WILL FINALLY CROSS THE AREA ON
TUESDAY. SHOULD BE ENOUGH LINGERING INSTABILITY TO KICK OFF MORE
CONVECTION BEFORE DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR PUSHES IN FROM THE
WEST IN THE AFTERNOON.

CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL SETTLE INTO THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY BRINGING MUCH COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION. COOL AND
UNSTABLE AIR WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A LOT DAYTIME CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE SHOWERS. HIGH WILL AVERAGE OUT BELOW NORMAL FOR MUCH OF
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 11Z SAT/...AREAS OF MVFR THROUGH 06Z IN SHRA
AND SCT TSRA. LCL IFR PSBL IN FOG AND STRATUS BTW 06 AND 12Z FRI.
VFR THROUGHOUT FRI AND FRI NIGHT.

LONG TERM...VFR SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR
CEILINGS AND VSBY IN SCATTERED DAYTIME CONVECTION.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...THE OUTER WATERS BRIEFLY APPROACH
20 KT AND 5 FT FOR A FEW HOURS TONIGHT WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLD.

LONG TERM...NO PROBLEMS NOTED.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LEGRO




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