Home > Products > State Listing > Maine Data
Latest:
 AFDCAR |  AFDGYX |
  [top]

000
FXUS61 KCAR 220931
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
431 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE AREA TODAY AND MOVE
EAST ON SUNDAY. MEANWHILE...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
MOVE ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MAINE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STRONG
LOW PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL APPROACH LATER SUNDAY AND
THEN MOVE NORTHWEST OF THE REGION ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER VA/NC WILL SLOWLY SHIFT OFF
THE COAST TODAY. MEANWHILE, A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL SLIDE THROUGH
THE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT, CROSSING NORTHERN MAINE AND BRINGING THE
CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW FOR THE CROWN. SNOWFALL WILL BE AN INCH
AT MOST. HIGHS WILL BE COOL ONCE AGAIN, RANGING FROM THE MID 20S
IN THE NORTH TO THE MID 30S SOUTH.

FOR TONIGHT...THE HIGH MOVES FAR ENOUGH EAST THAT WE`LL START TO SEE
SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION AROUND THE BACKSIDE. AS SUCH, LOWS WILL BE
DURING THE EVENING, WITH TEMPERATURES HOLDING STEADY OR RISING
OVERNIGHT. DON`T EXPECT MUCH WARM ADVECTION PRECIP OUTSIDE OF SOME
SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHWEST. GENERALLY
EXPECT THIS TO FALL AS SNOW BUT WITH WARMER AIR MOVING OVER COLDER
AIR AT THE SURFACE, CAN`T RULE OUT SOME POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN
LATE TONIGHT. SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE LIGHT, WITH LITTLE TO NO ICE
ACCRETION. FOR OUR COASTAL AREA...ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
OVER THE GULF OF MAINE, BRINGING THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
TO THE REGION. A BIT OF SNOW MAY MIX IN AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE
COAST, BUT DON`T ANTICIPATE ANY ACCUMULATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WHATS LEFT OF MOISTURE FROM AN INITIAL S/WV MOVG E INTO THE
MARITIMES WILL BE EXITING SE ME ERLY SUN MORN. THIS WILL LIKELY
LEAVE LOW CLDNSS ACROSS SPCLY NRN PTNS OF THE FA THRU THE
REMAINDER OF SUN...WITH MODERATING DAYTM TEMPS. AFT A PD OF PRTL
CLRG SUN EVE...CLDS WILL INCREASE BY LATE SUN NGT...WITH ANOTHER
BAND OF LGT PRECIP BY ERLY MON MORN. FOR NOW...WITH SLOWLY RISING
TEMPS XPCTD LATE SUN NGT...PRECIP TYPE IS XPCTD TO BE VERY LGT
RN...BUT WE CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT PATCHY LGT FZRA IN A FEW
COLDER NRN VLY LCTNS...BUT TO ERLY ATTM TO COMMIT TO THIS PRECIP
TYPE...SPCLY GIVEN ONLY CHC POPS.

AFTWRDS...A WARM OCCLUSION RN BAND CROSSES WSW TO ENE ACROSS THE
FA LATE MON MORN THRU THE AFTN. FCST RN AMOUNTS OF A QUARTER INCH+
SUGGESTS GOING WITH CATEGORICAL POPS FOR MOST OF THE REGION WITH
THE PASSAGE OF THIS BAND. TEMPS AND WINDS WILL STEADILY CLIMB
DURG THE DAY...WITH TEMPS LIKELY REACHING A MAX AFT DARK ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION BEHIND THE OCCLUSION...WHERE BOTH 925 MB TEMPS
AND MIXING OF WINDS ALF RESULT IN BETTER MIXING AND STEEPER LLVL
LAPSE RATES.

OVRNGT TEMPS WILL CONT VERY MILD INTO THE OVRNGT WITH ANY LEFT OVR
SHWR ACTIVITY EXITING E OF THE FA DURG THE EVE. A MSLY DRY COLD
FRONT WILL THEN CROSS THE REGION LATE MON NGT...RESULTING IN
FALLING SFC TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION BY DAYBREAK TUES. SUBSEQUENTLY
HI TEMPS TUE IS UNCERTAIN...SPCLY ACROSS THE NW HLF OF THE FA IF
ENOUGH COLD AIR ARRIVES BY DAYBREAK TO BLOCK THE NORMAL DIURNAL
RISE OF TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WHATS LEFT OF A S/WV FROM CNTRL CAN WILL BRING MORE LOW SC CLDNSS
TO NRN PTNS FOR THE FA TUE NGT WITH FLURRIES AND POSSIBLE SN
SHWRS...WITH MOST OF THE LLVL COLD ADVCN PASSING N OF THE FA. LOW
TEMPS WILL BE COLDER THAN MON NGT...BUT LIKELY STILL ABV NORMAL
FOR THIS DATE.

AFT A BREAK INTO WED AFTN...CLDNSS WILL MOVE S TO N AHEAD OF LOW
PRES MOVG NE FROM THE SE STATES. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING HOW CLOSE TO THE NEW ENG COAST THIS LOW WILL TRACK WED
NGT AND ERLY THU MORN. WE DID NOTE THAT THE STRONGER AND FURTHER
W TRACKING 00Z DTMNSTC RUN OF THE ECMWF MATCHED A FEW OF THE ENS
MEMBER SOLUTIONS FROM YSTDY`S 12 GFS ENS RUN...BUT WAS NOT WELL
SUPPORTED BY THE 00Z GFS AND 00Z GFS ENSM AND MOST COMPRISING
MEMBERS. FOR NOW...WE DID RAISE POPS A LITTLE ACROSS ALL...XCPT
THE FAR NW PTN OF THE FA WED NGT INTO ERLY THU...WITH CHC POPS OVR
THE CNTRL ME HIGHLANDS AND THE FAR NE AND LIKELY POPS OVR DOWNEAST
AND E CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA. TEMPS SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL SN
BY LATE EVE FOR INLAND AREAS...WITH RN CHGNG TO SN LATE WED NGT
OVR DOWNEAST COASTAL AND SE PTNS OF THE FA. GIVEN THE WIDE RANGE
OF TRACKS AND INTENSITIES WITHE THIS SYSTEM...WE WILL HOLD OFF
MENTIONING THIS SYSTEM IN THE HWO ATTM.

WHATEVER THE OUTCOME OF THE LOW INTENSITY AND TRACK WED NGT...ANY
SN SHOULD END BY MID MORN THU ACROSS THE SE HLF OF THE FA...WITH
PERHAPS BREAKS IN THE CLDNSS BY THU AFTN. ANOTHER S/WV COULD BRING
MORE CLDNSS AND SN SHWRS TO THE REGION THU NGT INTO FRI MORN.
TEMPS SHOULD RETURN TO AT TO BELOW NORMAL BY THE LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE KFVE AND PERHAPS KCAR, WHERE MVFR IN LIGHT SNOW
WILL BE POSSIBLE, MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: MVFR CLGS XPCTD ACROSS NRN TAF SITES SUN INTO
SUN EVE...WHILE DOWNEAST SITES HOLD VFR. ALL SITES THEN LOWER TO
IFR CLGS AND RN LATE SUN NGT INTO MON MORN...CONTG THRU THE AFTN
...THEN IMPROVING TO VFR ALL SITES MON NGT...CONTG THRU WED.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A GALE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE OUTER WATERS FOR
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. A 35-45 KT LOW LEVEL JET WILL CROSS
THE GULF OF MAINE DURING THIS PERIOD, AND GIVEN THE RELATIVELY WARM
WATERS, EXPECT GUSTS AROUND 35 KTS TO OCCUR. FOR PENOBSCOT BAY,
GUSTS WILL ONLY BE AROUND 30 KT, SO A SMALL CRAFT IS IN EFFECT FOR
THAT AREA.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: WE XPCT SCA WINDS AND SEAS SUN...WITH WVS
CONTG TO BUILD SUN NGT THRU MON AS WINDS INCREASE TO NEAR GALE
FORCE GUSTS BY MON AFTN. AFTWRDS...BOTH WINDS AND SEAS WILL ONLY
SLOWLY SUBSIDE MON NGT THRU TUE. AFT A BREAK TUE NGT INTO WED
MORN...UNCERTAINTY OF WINDS AND WVS ATTM FOR WED WED AFTN INTO
THU MORN DEPENDING ON THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF A COASTAL LOW
MOVG NE FROM THE SE STATES.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EST
     SUNDAY FOR ANZ052.
     GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ050-051.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HASTINGS
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...HASTINGS/VJN
MARINE...HASTINGS/VJN



000
FXUS61 KCAR 220931
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
431 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE AREA TODAY AND MOVE
EAST ON SUNDAY. MEANWHILE...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
MOVE ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MAINE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STRONG
LOW PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL APPROACH LATER SUNDAY AND
THEN MOVE NORTHWEST OF THE REGION ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER VA/NC WILL SLOWLY SHIFT OFF
THE COAST TODAY. MEANWHILE, A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL SLIDE THROUGH
THE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT, CROSSING NORTHERN MAINE AND BRINGING THE
CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW FOR THE CROWN. SNOWFALL WILL BE AN INCH
AT MOST. HIGHS WILL BE COOL ONCE AGAIN, RANGING FROM THE MID 20S
IN THE NORTH TO THE MID 30S SOUTH.

FOR TONIGHT...THE HIGH MOVES FAR ENOUGH EAST THAT WE`LL START TO SEE
SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION AROUND THE BACKSIDE. AS SUCH, LOWS WILL BE
DURING THE EVENING, WITH TEMPERATURES HOLDING STEADY OR RISING
OVERNIGHT. DON`T EXPECT MUCH WARM ADVECTION PRECIP OUTSIDE OF SOME
SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHWEST. GENERALLY
EXPECT THIS TO FALL AS SNOW BUT WITH WARMER AIR MOVING OVER COLDER
AIR AT THE SURFACE, CAN`T RULE OUT SOME POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN
LATE TONIGHT. SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE LIGHT, WITH LITTLE TO NO ICE
ACCRETION. FOR OUR COASTAL AREA...ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
OVER THE GULF OF MAINE, BRINGING THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
TO THE REGION. A BIT OF SNOW MAY MIX IN AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE
COAST, BUT DON`T ANTICIPATE ANY ACCUMULATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WHATS LEFT OF MOISTURE FROM AN INITIAL S/WV MOVG E INTO THE
MARITIMES WILL BE EXITING SE ME ERLY SUN MORN. THIS WILL LIKELY
LEAVE LOW CLDNSS ACROSS SPCLY NRN PTNS OF THE FA THRU THE
REMAINDER OF SUN...WITH MODERATING DAYTM TEMPS. AFT A PD OF PRTL
CLRG SUN EVE...CLDS WILL INCREASE BY LATE SUN NGT...WITH ANOTHER
BAND OF LGT PRECIP BY ERLY MON MORN. FOR NOW...WITH SLOWLY RISING
TEMPS XPCTD LATE SUN NGT...PRECIP TYPE IS XPCTD TO BE VERY LGT
RN...BUT WE CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT PATCHY LGT FZRA IN A FEW
COLDER NRN VLY LCTNS...BUT TO ERLY ATTM TO COMMIT TO THIS PRECIP
TYPE...SPCLY GIVEN ONLY CHC POPS.

AFTWRDS...A WARM OCCLUSION RN BAND CROSSES WSW TO ENE ACROSS THE
FA LATE MON MORN THRU THE AFTN. FCST RN AMOUNTS OF A QUARTER INCH+
SUGGESTS GOING WITH CATEGORICAL POPS FOR MOST OF THE REGION WITH
THE PASSAGE OF THIS BAND. TEMPS AND WINDS WILL STEADILY CLIMB
DURG THE DAY...WITH TEMPS LIKELY REACHING A MAX AFT DARK ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION BEHIND THE OCCLUSION...WHERE BOTH 925 MB TEMPS
AND MIXING OF WINDS ALF RESULT IN BETTER MIXING AND STEEPER LLVL
LAPSE RATES.

OVRNGT TEMPS WILL CONT VERY MILD INTO THE OVRNGT WITH ANY LEFT OVR
SHWR ACTIVITY EXITING E OF THE FA DURG THE EVE. A MSLY DRY COLD
FRONT WILL THEN CROSS THE REGION LATE MON NGT...RESULTING IN
FALLING SFC TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION BY DAYBREAK TUES. SUBSEQUENTLY
HI TEMPS TUE IS UNCERTAIN...SPCLY ACROSS THE NW HLF OF THE FA IF
ENOUGH COLD AIR ARRIVES BY DAYBREAK TO BLOCK THE NORMAL DIURNAL
RISE OF TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WHATS LEFT OF A S/WV FROM CNTRL CAN WILL BRING MORE LOW SC CLDNSS
TO NRN PTNS FOR THE FA TUE NGT WITH FLURRIES AND POSSIBLE SN
SHWRS...WITH MOST OF THE LLVL COLD ADVCN PASSING N OF THE FA. LOW
TEMPS WILL BE COLDER THAN MON NGT...BUT LIKELY STILL ABV NORMAL
FOR THIS DATE.

AFT A BREAK INTO WED AFTN...CLDNSS WILL MOVE S TO N AHEAD OF LOW
PRES MOVG NE FROM THE SE STATES. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING HOW CLOSE TO THE NEW ENG COAST THIS LOW WILL TRACK WED
NGT AND ERLY THU MORN. WE DID NOTE THAT THE STRONGER AND FURTHER
W TRACKING 00Z DTMNSTC RUN OF THE ECMWF MATCHED A FEW OF THE ENS
MEMBER SOLUTIONS FROM YSTDY`S 12 GFS ENS RUN...BUT WAS NOT WELL
SUPPORTED BY THE 00Z GFS AND 00Z GFS ENSM AND MOST COMPRISING
MEMBERS. FOR NOW...WE DID RAISE POPS A LITTLE ACROSS ALL...XCPT
THE FAR NW PTN OF THE FA WED NGT INTO ERLY THU...WITH CHC POPS OVR
THE CNTRL ME HIGHLANDS AND THE FAR NE AND LIKELY POPS OVR DOWNEAST
AND E CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA. TEMPS SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL SN
BY LATE EVE FOR INLAND AREAS...WITH RN CHGNG TO SN LATE WED NGT
OVR DOWNEAST COASTAL AND SE PTNS OF THE FA. GIVEN THE WIDE RANGE
OF TRACKS AND INTENSITIES WITHE THIS SYSTEM...WE WILL HOLD OFF
MENTIONING THIS SYSTEM IN THE HWO ATTM.

WHATEVER THE OUTCOME OF THE LOW INTENSITY AND TRACK WED NGT...ANY
SN SHOULD END BY MID MORN THU ACROSS THE SE HLF OF THE FA...WITH
PERHAPS BREAKS IN THE CLDNSS BY THU AFTN. ANOTHER S/WV COULD BRING
MORE CLDNSS AND SN SHWRS TO THE REGION THU NGT INTO FRI MORN.
TEMPS SHOULD RETURN TO AT TO BELOW NORMAL BY THE LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE KFVE AND PERHAPS KCAR, WHERE MVFR IN LIGHT SNOW
WILL BE POSSIBLE, MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: MVFR CLGS XPCTD ACROSS NRN TAF SITES SUN INTO
SUN EVE...WHILE DOWNEAST SITES HOLD VFR. ALL SITES THEN LOWER TO
IFR CLGS AND RN LATE SUN NGT INTO MON MORN...CONTG THRU THE AFTN
...THEN IMPROVING TO VFR ALL SITES MON NGT...CONTG THRU WED.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A GALE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE OUTER WATERS FOR
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. A 35-45 KT LOW LEVEL JET WILL CROSS
THE GULF OF MAINE DURING THIS PERIOD, AND GIVEN THE RELATIVELY WARM
WATERS, EXPECT GUSTS AROUND 35 KTS TO OCCUR. FOR PENOBSCOT BAY,
GUSTS WILL ONLY BE AROUND 30 KT, SO A SMALL CRAFT IS IN EFFECT FOR
THAT AREA.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: WE XPCT SCA WINDS AND SEAS SUN...WITH WVS
CONTG TO BUILD SUN NGT THRU MON AS WINDS INCREASE TO NEAR GALE
FORCE GUSTS BY MON AFTN. AFTWRDS...BOTH WINDS AND SEAS WILL ONLY
SLOWLY SUBSIDE MON NGT THRU TUE. AFT A BREAK TUE NGT INTO WED
MORN...UNCERTAINTY OF WINDS AND WVS ATTM FOR WED WED AFTN INTO
THU MORN DEPENDING ON THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF A COASTAL LOW
MOVG NE FROM THE SE STATES.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EST
     SUNDAY FOR ANZ052.
     GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ050-051.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HASTINGS
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...HASTINGS/VJN
MARINE...HASTINGS/VJN



000
FXUS61 KCAR 220931
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
431 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE AREA TODAY AND MOVE
EAST ON SUNDAY. MEANWHILE...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
MOVE ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MAINE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STRONG
LOW PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL APPROACH LATER SUNDAY AND
THEN MOVE NORTHWEST OF THE REGION ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER VA/NC WILL SLOWLY SHIFT OFF
THE COAST TODAY. MEANWHILE, A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL SLIDE THROUGH
THE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT, CROSSING NORTHERN MAINE AND BRINGING THE
CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW FOR THE CROWN. SNOWFALL WILL BE AN INCH
AT MOST. HIGHS WILL BE COOL ONCE AGAIN, RANGING FROM THE MID 20S
IN THE NORTH TO THE MID 30S SOUTH.

FOR TONIGHT...THE HIGH MOVES FAR ENOUGH EAST THAT WE`LL START TO SEE
SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION AROUND THE BACKSIDE. AS SUCH, LOWS WILL BE
DURING THE EVENING, WITH TEMPERATURES HOLDING STEADY OR RISING
OVERNIGHT. DON`T EXPECT MUCH WARM ADVECTION PRECIP OUTSIDE OF SOME
SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHWEST. GENERALLY
EXPECT THIS TO FALL AS SNOW BUT WITH WARMER AIR MOVING OVER COLDER
AIR AT THE SURFACE, CAN`T RULE OUT SOME POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN
LATE TONIGHT. SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE LIGHT, WITH LITTLE TO NO ICE
ACCRETION. FOR OUR COASTAL AREA...ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
OVER THE GULF OF MAINE, BRINGING THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
TO THE REGION. A BIT OF SNOW MAY MIX IN AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE
COAST, BUT DON`T ANTICIPATE ANY ACCUMULATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WHATS LEFT OF MOISTURE FROM AN INITIAL S/WV MOVG E INTO THE
MARITIMES WILL BE EXITING SE ME ERLY SUN MORN. THIS WILL LIKELY
LEAVE LOW CLDNSS ACROSS SPCLY NRN PTNS OF THE FA THRU THE
REMAINDER OF SUN...WITH MODERATING DAYTM TEMPS. AFT A PD OF PRTL
CLRG SUN EVE...CLDS WILL INCREASE BY LATE SUN NGT...WITH ANOTHER
BAND OF LGT PRECIP BY ERLY MON MORN. FOR NOW...WITH SLOWLY RISING
TEMPS XPCTD LATE SUN NGT...PRECIP TYPE IS XPCTD TO BE VERY LGT
RN...BUT WE CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT PATCHY LGT FZRA IN A FEW
COLDER NRN VLY LCTNS...BUT TO ERLY ATTM TO COMMIT TO THIS PRECIP
TYPE...SPCLY GIVEN ONLY CHC POPS.

AFTWRDS...A WARM OCCLUSION RN BAND CROSSES WSW TO ENE ACROSS THE
FA LATE MON MORN THRU THE AFTN. FCST RN AMOUNTS OF A QUARTER INCH+
SUGGESTS GOING WITH CATEGORICAL POPS FOR MOST OF THE REGION WITH
THE PASSAGE OF THIS BAND. TEMPS AND WINDS WILL STEADILY CLIMB
DURG THE DAY...WITH TEMPS LIKELY REACHING A MAX AFT DARK ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION BEHIND THE OCCLUSION...WHERE BOTH 925 MB TEMPS
AND MIXING OF WINDS ALF RESULT IN BETTER MIXING AND STEEPER LLVL
LAPSE RATES.

OVRNGT TEMPS WILL CONT VERY MILD INTO THE OVRNGT WITH ANY LEFT OVR
SHWR ACTIVITY EXITING E OF THE FA DURG THE EVE. A MSLY DRY COLD
FRONT WILL THEN CROSS THE REGION LATE MON NGT...RESULTING IN
FALLING SFC TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION BY DAYBREAK TUES. SUBSEQUENTLY
HI TEMPS TUE IS UNCERTAIN...SPCLY ACROSS THE NW HLF OF THE FA IF
ENOUGH COLD AIR ARRIVES BY DAYBREAK TO BLOCK THE NORMAL DIURNAL
RISE OF TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WHATS LEFT OF A S/WV FROM CNTRL CAN WILL BRING MORE LOW SC CLDNSS
TO NRN PTNS FOR THE FA TUE NGT WITH FLURRIES AND POSSIBLE SN
SHWRS...WITH MOST OF THE LLVL COLD ADVCN PASSING N OF THE FA. LOW
TEMPS WILL BE COLDER THAN MON NGT...BUT LIKELY STILL ABV NORMAL
FOR THIS DATE.

AFT A BREAK INTO WED AFTN...CLDNSS WILL MOVE S TO N AHEAD OF LOW
PRES MOVG NE FROM THE SE STATES. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING HOW CLOSE TO THE NEW ENG COAST THIS LOW WILL TRACK WED
NGT AND ERLY THU MORN. WE DID NOTE THAT THE STRONGER AND FURTHER
W TRACKING 00Z DTMNSTC RUN OF THE ECMWF MATCHED A FEW OF THE ENS
MEMBER SOLUTIONS FROM YSTDY`S 12 GFS ENS RUN...BUT WAS NOT WELL
SUPPORTED BY THE 00Z GFS AND 00Z GFS ENSM AND MOST COMPRISING
MEMBERS. FOR NOW...WE DID RAISE POPS A LITTLE ACROSS ALL...XCPT
THE FAR NW PTN OF THE FA WED NGT INTO ERLY THU...WITH CHC POPS OVR
THE CNTRL ME HIGHLANDS AND THE FAR NE AND LIKELY POPS OVR DOWNEAST
AND E CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA. TEMPS SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL SN
BY LATE EVE FOR INLAND AREAS...WITH RN CHGNG TO SN LATE WED NGT
OVR DOWNEAST COASTAL AND SE PTNS OF THE FA. GIVEN THE WIDE RANGE
OF TRACKS AND INTENSITIES WITHE THIS SYSTEM...WE WILL HOLD OFF
MENTIONING THIS SYSTEM IN THE HWO ATTM.

WHATEVER THE OUTCOME OF THE LOW INTENSITY AND TRACK WED NGT...ANY
SN SHOULD END BY MID MORN THU ACROSS THE SE HLF OF THE FA...WITH
PERHAPS BREAKS IN THE CLDNSS BY THU AFTN. ANOTHER S/WV COULD BRING
MORE CLDNSS AND SN SHWRS TO THE REGION THU NGT INTO FRI MORN.
TEMPS SHOULD RETURN TO AT TO BELOW NORMAL BY THE LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE KFVE AND PERHAPS KCAR, WHERE MVFR IN LIGHT SNOW
WILL BE POSSIBLE, MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: MVFR CLGS XPCTD ACROSS NRN TAF SITES SUN INTO
SUN EVE...WHILE DOWNEAST SITES HOLD VFR. ALL SITES THEN LOWER TO
IFR CLGS AND RN LATE SUN NGT INTO MON MORN...CONTG THRU THE AFTN
...THEN IMPROVING TO VFR ALL SITES MON NGT...CONTG THRU WED.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A GALE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE OUTER WATERS FOR
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. A 35-45 KT LOW LEVEL JET WILL CROSS
THE GULF OF MAINE DURING THIS PERIOD, AND GIVEN THE RELATIVELY WARM
WATERS, EXPECT GUSTS AROUND 35 KTS TO OCCUR. FOR PENOBSCOT BAY,
GUSTS WILL ONLY BE AROUND 30 KT, SO A SMALL CRAFT IS IN EFFECT FOR
THAT AREA.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: WE XPCT SCA WINDS AND SEAS SUN...WITH WVS
CONTG TO BUILD SUN NGT THRU MON AS WINDS INCREASE TO NEAR GALE
FORCE GUSTS BY MON AFTN. AFTWRDS...BOTH WINDS AND SEAS WILL ONLY
SLOWLY SUBSIDE MON NGT THRU TUE. AFT A BREAK TUE NGT INTO WED
MORN...UNCERTAINTY OF WINDS AND WVS ATTM FOR WED WED AFTN INTO
THU MORN DEPENDING ON THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF A COASTAL LOW
MOVG NE FROM THE SE STATES.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EST
     SUNDAY FOR ANZ052.
     GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ050-051.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HASTINGS
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...HASTINGS/VJN
MARINE...HASTINGS/VJN



000
FXUS61 KCAR 220931
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
431 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE AREA TODAY AND MOVE
EAST ON SUNDAY. MEANWHILE...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
MOVE ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MAINE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STRONG
LOW PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL APPROACH LATER SUNDAY AND
THEN MOVE NORTHWEST OF THE REGION ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER VA/NC WILL SLOWLY SHIFT OFF
THE COAST TODAY. MEANWHILE, A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL SLIDE THROUGH
THE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT, CROSSING NORTHERN MAINE AND BRINGING THE
CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW FOR THE CROWN. SNOWFALL WILL BE AN INCH
AT MOST. HIGHS WILL BE COOL ONCE AGAIN, RANGING FROM THE MID 20S
IN THE NORTH TO THE MID 30S SOUTH.

FOR TONIGHT...THE HIGH MOVES FAR ENOUGH EAST THAT WE`LL START TO SEE
SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION AROUND THE BACKSIDE. AS SUCH, LOWS WILL BE
DURING THE EVENING, WITH TEMPERATURES HOLDING STEADY OR RISING
OVERNIGHT. DON`T EXPECT MUCH WARM ADVECTION PRECIP OUTSIDE OF SOME
SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHWEST. GENERALLY
EXPECT THIS TO FALL AS SNOW BUT WITH WARMER AIR MOVING OVER COLDER
AIR AT THE SURFACE, CAN`T RULE OUT SOME POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN
LATE TONIGHT. SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE LIGHT, WITH LITTLE TO NO ICE
ACCRETION. FOR OUR COASTAL AREA...ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
OVER THE GULF OF MAINE, BRINGING THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
TO THE REGION. A BIT OF SNOW MAY MIX IN AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE
COAST, BUT DON`T ANTICIPATE ANY ACCUMULATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WHATS LEFT OF MOISTURE FROM AN INITIAL S/WV MOVG E INTO THE
MARITIMES WILL BE EXITING SE ME ERLY SUN MORN. THIS WILL LIKELY
LEAVE LOW CLDNSS ACROSS SPCLY NRN PTNS OF THE FA THRU THE
REMAINDER OF SUN...WITH MODERATING DAYTM TEMPS. AFT A PD OF PRTL
CLRG SUN EVE...CLDS WILL INCREASE BY LATE SUN NGT...WITH ANOTHER
BAND OF LGT PRECIP BY ERLY MON MORN. FOR NOW...WITH SLOWLY RISING
TEMPS XPCTD LATE SUN NGT...PRECIP TYPE IS XPCTD TO BE VERY LGT
RN...BUT WE CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT PATCHY LGT FZRA IN A FEW
COLDER NRN VLY LCTNS...BUT TO ERLY ATTM TO COMMIT TO THIS PRECIP
TYPE...SPCLY GIVEN ONLY CHC POPS.

AFTWRDS...A WARM OCCLUSION RN BAND CROSSES WSW TO ENE ACROSS THE
FA LATE MON MORN THRU THE AFTN. FCST RN AMOUNTS OF A QUARTER INCH+
SUGGESTS GOING WITH CATEGORICAL POPS FOR MOST OF THE REGION WITH
THE PASSAGE OF THIS BAND. TEMPS AND WINDS WILL STEADILY CLIMB
DURG THE DAY...WITH TEMPS LIKELY REACHING A MAX AFT DARK ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION BEHIND THE OCCLUSION...WHERE BOTH 925 MB TEMPS
AND MIXING OF WINDS ALF RESULT IN BETTER MIXING AND STEEPER LLVL
LAPSE RATES.

OVRNGT TEMPS WILL CONT VERY MILD INTO THE OVRNGT WITH ANY LEFT OVR
SHWR ACTIVITY EXITING E OF THE FA DURG THE EVE. A MSLY DRY COLD
FRONT WILL THEN CROSS THE REGION LATE MON NGT...RESULTING IN
FALLING SFC TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION BY DAYBREAK TUES. SUBSEQUENTLY
HI TEMPS TUE IS UNCERTAIN...SPCLY ACROSS THE NW HLF OF THE FA IF
ENOUGH COLD AIR ARRIVES BY DAYBREAK TO BLOCK THE NORMAL DIURNAL
RISE OF TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WHATS LEFT OF A S/WV FROM CNTRL CAN WILL BRING MORE LOW SC CLDNSS
TO NRN PTNS FOR THE FA TUE NGT WITH FLURRIES AND POSSIBLE SN
SHWRS...WITH MOST OF THE LLVL COLD ADVCN PASSING N OF THE FA. LOW
TEMPS WILL BE COLDER THAN MON NGT...BUT LIKELY STILL ABV NORMAL
FOR THIS DATE.

AFT A BREAK INTO WED AFTN...CLDNSS WILL MOVE S TO N AHEAD OF LOW
PRES MOVG NE FROM THE SE STATES. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING HOW CLOSE TO THE NEW ENG COAST THIS LOW WILL TRACK WED
NGT AND ERLY THU MORN. WE DID NOTE THAT THE STRONGER AND FURTHER
W TRACKING 00Z DTMNSTC RUN OF THE ECMWF MATCHED A FEW OF THE ENS
MEMBER SOLUTIONS FROM YSTDY`S 12 GFS ENS RUN...BUT WAS NOT WELL
SUPPORTED BY THE 00Z GFS AND 00Z GFS ENSM AND MOST COMPRISING
MEMBERS. FOR NOW...WE DID RAISE POPS A LITTLE ACROSS ALL...XCPT
THE FAR NW PTN OF THE FA WED NGT INTO ERLY THU...WITH CHC POPS OVR
THE CNTRL ME HIGHLANDS AND THE FAR NE AND LIKELY POPS OVR DOWNEAST
AND E CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA. TEMPS SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL SN
BY LATE EVE FOR INLAND AREAS...WITH RN CHGNG TO SN LATE WED NGT
OVR DOWNEAST COASTAL AND SE PTNS OF THE FA. GIVEN THE WIDE RANGE
OF TRACKS AND INTENSITIES WITHE THIS SYSTEM...WE WILL HOLD OFF
MENTIONING THIS SYSTEM IN THE HWO ATTM.

WHATEVER THE OUTCOME OF THE LOW INTENSITY AND TRACK WED NGT...ANY
SN SHOULD END BY MID MORN THU ACROSS THE SE HLF OF THE FA...WITH
PERHAPS BREAKS IN THE CLDNSS BY THU AFTN. ANOTHER S/WV COULD BRING
MORE CLDNSS AND SN SHWRS TO THE REGION THU NGT INTO FRI MORN.
TEMPS SHOULD RETURN TO AT TO BELOW NORMAL BY THE LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE KFVE AND PERHAPS KCAR, WHERE MVFR IN LIGHT SNOW
WILL BE POSSIBLE, MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: MVFR CLGS XPCTD ACROSS NRN TAF SITES SUN INTO
SUN EVE...WHILE DOWNEAST SITES HOLD VFR. ALL SITES THEN LOWER TO
IFR CLGS AND RN LATE SUN NGT INTO MON MORN...CONTG THRU THE AFTN
...THEN IMPROVING TO VFR ALL SITES MON NGT...CONTG THRU WED.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A GALE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE OUTER WATERS FOR
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. A 35-45 KT LOW LEVEL JET WILL CROSS
THE GULF OF MAINE DURING THIS PERIOD, AND GIVEN THE RELATIVELY WARM
WATERS, EXPECT GUSTS AROUND 35 KTS TO OCCUR. FOR PENOBSCOT BAY,
GUSTS WILL ONLY BE AROUND 30 KT, SO A SMALL CRAFT IS IN EFFECT FOR
THAT AREA.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: WE XPCT SCA WINDS AND SEAS SUN...WITH WVS
CONTG TO BUILD SUN NGT THRU MON AS WINDS INCREASE TO NEAR GALE
FORCE GUSTS BY MON AFTN. AFTWRDS...BOTH WINDS AND SEAS WILL ONLY
SLOWLY SUBSIDE MON NGT THRU TUE. AFT A BREAK TUE NGT INTO WED
MORN...UNCERTAINTY OF WINDS AND WVS ATTM FOR WED WED AFTN INTO
THU MORN DEPENDING ON THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF A COASTAL LOW
MOVG NE FROM THE SE STATES.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EST
     SUNDAY FOR ANZ052.
     GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ050-051.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HASTINGS
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...HASTINGS/VJN
MARINE...HASTINGS/VJN


  [top]

000
FXUS61 KGYX 220824
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
324 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE DELMARVA REGION WILL SLIDE
OFFSHORE THIS MORNING. THE RETURN FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL
INTRODUCE SOMEWHAT MILDER AIR INTO THE REGION BEGINNING TODAY. A
WARM FRONT WILL BRING CLOUDS TO THE AREA BY LATER TODAY ALONG WITH
A CHANCE FOR SPOTTY MIXED PRECIPITATION LATE TODAY INTO SUNDAY.
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVES NORTHEAST OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES
AND THROUGH THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY SUN NIGHT AND
MONDAY...BRINGING A PERIOD OF MAINLY RAIN TO THE REGION. A COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE AREA TUESDAY. A SERIES OF COASTAL LOWS WILL
TRACK OFFSHORE DURING THE MID TO LATE WEEK HOLIDAY PERIOD...AND
COULD BRING SOME RAIN OR SNOW TO COASTAL AREAS DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AT 07Z...A 1035 MILLIBAR HIGH WAS CENTERED ACROSS THE DELMARVA
REGION. OUTSIDE OF A FEW LOW CLOUDS EVIDENT ON GOES IMAGERY ACROSS
FAR NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND WESTERN MAINE MOUNTAINS...SKIES
WERE CLEAR ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. FOR TODAY...THE SURFACE HIGH
SLIDES OFFSHORE WITH THE RETURN FLOW INTRODUCING SOMEWHAT MILDER
AIR INTO THE AREA. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
TODAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS...IN DEVELOPING WARM
AIR ADVECTION PATTERN...WITH A CHANCE FOR SPOTTY SNOW SHOWERS OR
SLEET ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN SECTIONS BY LATE IN THE DAY.
HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
WARM AIR ADVECTION CLOUDS...ALONG WITH SPOTTY LIGHT MIXED
PRECIPITATION PERSISTS TONIGHT MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN AND
WESTERN SECTIONS WITH LOWS IN THE 20S AND LOWER 30S ACROSS THE
REGION. GIVEN THE EXPECTED LIGHT AND SPOTTY NATURE OF THE
PRECIPITATION...NO WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED AT THIS
TIME.

ON SUNDAY...WE BREAK OUT OF THE CLOUDS ACROSS ALL BUT PERHAPS
NORTHERN SECTIONS AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST. HIGHS WILL
ACTUALLY BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE
40S...ALTHOUGH A 50 DEGREE READING OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
SOUTHERN SECTIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD STAY ABOVE FREEZING SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING AS WARM AIR ADVECTION/SW WINDS APPROACH OVERNIGHT. A FEW
VALLEYS AND FAVORED COLD LOCATIONS MAY REACH THE FREEZING MARK.
THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE OR RAIN OVER THE
INTERIOR OR HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE TO ALL RAIN AS WARMER AIR IS USHERED IN
AND THE NOW OCCLUDED FRONT MOVES NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION.
RAIN WILL BE STEADY IN THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE TURNING INTO
SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

NO NOTABLE COLD AIR ARRIVES IMMEDIATELY AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM ORGANIZES OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS AND WINDS TURN WSW.
VARIOUS MODELS INCLUDING THE GFS AND LATEST EURO ARE BRINGING
THIS BAROCLINIC LEAF STRUCTURE WITHIN THE BENCHMARK NOW ON A VERY
BUSY TRAVEL HOLIDAY. ALTHOUGH THIS WOULD BEGIN AS RAIN ON
WEDNESDAY... ALL AREAS WOULD CHANGE TO SNOW EXCEPT FOR THE
IMMEDIATE COAST WHICH WOULD SEE A MIX AT TIMES. FOR NOW UPPED POPS
TO 50% ALONG THE COAST AND JUST INLAND DUE TO MODEL
AGREEMENT... BUT DID NOT GO LIKELY AT THIS TIME AS THIS IS STILL
CONSIDERED DAY 6. DID NOT WANT TO HAVE A FLIP FLOPPING FORECAST
FOR THANKSGIVING IF THE MODELS TURN DRY AGAIN.

BEHIND THIS SYSTEM ARCTIC AIR WILL BE UNINHIBITED FROM REACHING
THE NORTHEAST. 300MB TRAJECTORIES TRACK BACK TO A VERY COLD
SOURCE AIRMASS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...VFR...XCP SCT MVFR POSSIBLE TONIGHT
IN SPOTTY -FZRA/IP/SN.

LONG TERM...MVFR OR IFR IN RAIN OR SNOW ON MONDAY. MOUNTAIN
TERMINALS MAY SEE ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION LINGERING INTO TUESDAY.
ALL LOCATIONS MAY SEE RAIN AND OR SNOW WEDNESDAY WITH COASTAL
LOCATIONS SEEING LOWERED CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY DEPENDING ON HOW
CLOSE AN OCEAN SYSTEM COMES INLAND.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...RETURN FLOW AROUND THE SURFACE HIGH
WILL BRING WIND GUSTS TO MARGINAL GALE LATER TODAY INTO EARLY
TONIGHT OUTSIDE THE BAYS...WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR CASCO AND
PENOBSCOT BAYS.

LONG TERM...GALES LIKELY MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS WINDS INCREASE
AHEAD OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM. SMALL CRAFT WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AFTER
THAT. WAVES WILL BE 6-10 FT MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EST
     SUNDAY FOR ANZ151-153.
     GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$

SCHWIBS/HANES




000
FXUS61 KGYX 220824
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
324 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE DELMARVA REGION WILL SLIDE
OFFSHORE THIS MORNING. THE RETURN FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL
INTRODUCE SOMEWHAT MILDER AIR INTO THE REGION BEGINNING TODAY. A
WARM FRONT WILL BRING CLOUDS TO THE AREA BY LATER TODAY ALONG WITH
A CHANCE FOR SPOTTY MIXED PRECIPITATION LATE TODAY INTO SUNDAY.
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVES NORTHEAST OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES
AND THROUGH THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY SUN NIGHT AND
MONDAY...BRINGING A PERIOD OF MAINLY RAIN TO THE REGION. A COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE AREA TUESDAY. A SERIES OF COASTAL LOWS WILL
TRACK OFFSHORE DURING THE MID TO LATE WEEK HOLIDAY PERIOD...AND
COULD BRING SOME RAIN OR SNOW TO COASTAL AREAS DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AT 07Z...A 1035 MILLIBAR HIGH WAS CENTERED ACROSS THE DELMARVA
REGION. OUTSIDE OF A FEW LOW CLOUDS EVIDENT ON GOES IMAGERY ACROSS
FAR NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND WESTERN MAINE MOUNTAINS...SKIES
WERE CLEAR ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. FOR TODAY...THE SURFACE HIGH
SLIDES OFFSHORE WITH THE RETURN FLOW INTRODUCING SOMEWHAT MILDER
AIR INTO THE AREA. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
TODAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS...IN DEVELOPING WARM
AIR ADVECTION PATTERN...WITH A CHANCE FOR SPOTTY SNOW SHOWERS OR
SLEET ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN SECTIONS BY LATE IN THE DAY.
HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
WARM AIR ADVECTION CLOUDS...ALONG WITH SPOTTY LIGHT MIXED
PRECIPITATION PERSISTS TONIGHT MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN AND
WESTERN SECTIONS WITH LOWS IN THE 20S AND LOWER 30S ACROSS THE
REGION. GIVEN THE EXPECTED LIGHT AND SPOTTY NATURE OF THE
PRECIPITATION...NO WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED AT THIS
TIME.

ON SUNDAY...WE BREAK OUT OF THE CLOUDS ACROSS ALL BUT PERHAPS
NORTHERN SECTIONS AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST. HIGHS WILL
ACTUALLY BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE
40S...ALTHOUGH A 50 DEGREE READING OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
SOUTHERN SECTIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD STAY ABOVE FREEZING SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING AS WARM AIR ADVECTION/SW WINDS APPROACH OVERNIGHT. A FEW
VALLEYS AND FAVORED COLD LOCATIONS MAY REACH THE FREEZING MARK.
THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE OR RAIN OVER THE
INTERIOR OR HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE TO ALL RAIN AS WARMER AIR IS USHERED IN
AND THE NOW OCCLUDED FRONT MOVES NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION.
RAIN WILL BE STEADY IN THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE TURNING INTO
SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

NO NOTABLE COLD AIR ARRIVES IMMEDIATELY AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM ORGANIZES OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS AND WINDS TURN WSW.
VARIOUS MODELS INCLUDING THE GFS AND LATEST EURO ARE BRINGING
THIS BAROCLINIC LEAF STRUCTURE WITHIN THE BENCHMARK NOW ON A VERY
BUSY TRAVEL HOLIDAY. ALTHOUGH THIS WOULD BEGIN AS RAIN ON
WEDNESDAY... ALL AREAS WOULD CHANGE TO SNOW EXCEPT FOR THE
IMMEDIATE COAST WHICH WOULD SEE A MIX AT TIMES. FOR NOW UPPED POPS
TO 50% ALONG THE COAST AND JUST INLAND DUE TO MODEL
AGREEMENT... BUT DID NOT GO LIKELY AT THIS TIME AS THIS IS STILL
CONSIDERED DAY 6. DID NOT WANT TO HAVE A FLIP FLOPPING FORECAST
FOR THANKSGIVING IF THE MODELS TURN DRY AGAIN.

BEHIND THIS SYSTEM ARCTIC AIR WILL BE UNINHIBITED FROM REACHING
THE NORTHEAST. 300MB TRAJECTORIES TRACK BACK TO A VERY COLD
SOURCE AIRMASS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...VFR...XCP SCT MVFR POSSIBLE TONIGHT
IN SPOTTY -FZRA/IP/SN.

LONG TERM...MVFR OR IFR IN RAIN OR SNOW ON MONDAY. MOUNTAIN
TERMINALS MAY SEE ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION LINGERING INTO TUESDAY.
ALL LOCATIONS MAY SEE RAIN AND OR SNOW WEDNESDAY WITH COASTAL
LOCATIONS SEEING LOWERED CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY DEPENDING ON HOW
CLOSE AN OCEAN SYSTEM COMES INLAND.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...RETURN FLOW AROUND THE SURFACE HIGH
WILL BRING WIND GUSTS TO MARGINAL GALE LATER TODAY INTO EARLY
TONIGHT OUTSIDE THE BAYS...WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR CASCO AND
PENOBSCOT BAYS.

LONG TERM...GALES LIKELY MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS WINDS INCREASE
AHEAD OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM. SMALL CRAFT WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AFTER
THAT. WAVES WILL BE 6-10 FT MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EST
     SUNDAY FOR ANZ151-153.
     GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$

SCHWIBS/HANES



000
FXUS61 KCAR 220507
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1207 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AND MOVE EAST ON SUNDAY. MEANWHILE, A DISTURBANCE WILL
PASS ACROSS NORTHERN FRINGES OF MAINE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS WEST OF THE REGION ON
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1205 AM UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE NEEDED WITH THIS
UPDATE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A SURFACE TROF WILL EXIT INTO NEW BRUNSWICK
BY EARLY EVENING. HIGH PRES MOVING ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC
COAST TONIGHT WILL RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS
WILL BE COMING TO AN END W/CLEARING EXPECTED. THIS SHOWS UP ON THE
12Z NAM AND GFS SOUNDINGS W/THE 850-700MB LAYER DRYING OUT.
THEREFORE, DECIDED TO DROP POPS BACK BELOW 15% BY THE EVENING.
WINDS WILL BE DROPPING OFF AS WELL W/THE RIDGE BUILDING IN. THE
COMBINATION OF THE CLEAR SKIES/LIGHT WINDS AND COLD AIRMASS IN
PLACE WILL LEAD TO SOME COLD TEMPERATURES FOR LATE NOVEMBER. WE
ARE TALKING SINGLE NUMBERS FOR THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF MAINE
W/READINGS AOB BELOW 0F FOR AREAS ACROSS THE NORTHERN BORDER AND
BACK TO NW. 10-15 DEGREES SHOULD DO FOR CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST
AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE NEAR CAPE HATTERAS LATE SATURDAY WILL MOVE TO
THE EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL TIGHTEN
SOUTHWESTERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THE DEPARTING HIGH
RESULTING IN OVER-RUNNING PRECIPITATION BREAKING OUT FROM THE
GREAT LAKES INTO WESTERN MAINE. EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO BEGIN AS
SNOW SUNDAY THEN QUICKLY TRANSITION TO MIXED AS STRONG WARM
ADVECTION TAKES PALCE ALOFT AS PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO
TIGHTEN BETWEEN DEEP LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC. WILL USE THE MOSG25 FOR
WINDS SINCE IT CAN BETTER HANDLE DECOUPLING WINDS IN ENTRENCHED
COLD AIR MASS AT SURFACE. FOR TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT WILL USE
NAM12 DURING WARM ADVECTION ALOFT THEN TRANSITION TO RAW BLEND TO
BETTER HANDLE TRANSITION TO WARM AIR MASS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
INTENSE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF JAMES BAY MONDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL
PIVOT AROUND THE SOUTH PORTION OF THE LOW AND MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION EARLY TUESDAY. THE ECMWF IS SIMILAR WITH THIS SYSTEM AND
SLIGHTLY FURTHER TO THE EAST. ALL 12 GFS EMSEMBLE PERTURBATIONS
ALSO SIMILAR WITH TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM ALTHOUGH SOME VARY IN BOTH
INTENSITY AND TIMIMG. SO EXPECT TRANSITION TO LIQUID PRECIPITATION
TO TAKE PLACE QUICKLY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH DYNAMIC
SYSTEM PASSING TO THE WEST. FOR TUESDAY EXPECT DRIER AIR MASS WITH
COLD ADVECTION CONTINUING BEHIND DEPARTING LOW. FOR WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY BOTH OPERATIONAL GFS....OPERATIONAL ECMWF AND MOST GFS
ENSEMBLE PERTURBATIONS INDICATE DEVELOPMENT OVER ATLANTIC ALONG
EAST COAST. GFS EMSEMBLE DIVIDED ON INTENSITY AND TRACK OF THIS
SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR RIGHT INTO SATURDAY W/THE EXCEPTION FOR KFVE AS
MVFR IS POSSIBLE W/THE LIGHT SNOW. EVEN KCAR RUNS THE RISK OF
SEEING A PERIOD OF MVFR.

SHORT TERM: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY THEN IFR CONDITIONS
MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY. CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR TUESDAY.
VFR CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: EXTENDED THE SCA THROUGH 12 PM SATURDAY AS WINDS GUSTS
TO 25 KTS STILL POSSIBLE. A LLVL JET OF AROUND 40 KT IS FORECAST
TO SET UP OVER THE WATERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF THIS WIND TO MIX DOWN TO
THE SURFACE. ATTM, BROUGHT WINDS GUSTS NEAR 35 KTS BY 00Z. LATER
CREWS CAN ASSESS THE NEED TO UPGRADE TO GALES IF NEEDED. WAVE
HEIGHTS ATTM WERE RUNNING 4-5 FT AND ARE FORECAST TO DROP BACK
INTO SATURDAY W/THE OFFSHORE WIND.

SHORT TERM: FOR SUSTAINED WINDS WILL USE THE NAM12 SUNDAY AND
MONDAY THEN TRANSITION TO THE SUPER BLEND WINDS. FOR WAVES: EXPECT
SOTHERLY WIND WAVE TO BECOME THE PRIMARY WAVE SYSTEM SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY AS HIGH CENTER MOVES OFF THE COAST INTO THE
ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERLY FETCH INCREASES FROM THE GULF OF MAINE
SOUTHWARD. EXPECT SOUTHERLY WAVE SYSTEM TO PERSIST INTO EARLY
TUESDAY THEN BE BROKEN UP BY OFF-SHORE FLOW AS A COLD FRONT PASSES
TUESDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HASTINGS/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...MIGNONE
LONG TERM...MIGNONE
AVIATION...HASTINGS/HEWITT/MIGNONE
MARINE...HASTINGS/HEWITT/MIGNONE



000
FXUS61 KCAR 220507
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1207 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AND MOVE EAST ON SUNDAY. MEANWHILE, A DISTURBANCE WILL
PASS ACROSS NORTHERN FRINGES OF MAINE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS WEST OF THE REGION ON
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1205 AM UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE NEEDED WITH THIS
UPDATE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A SURFACE TROF WILL EXIT INTO NEW BRUNSWICK
BY EARLY EVENING. HIGH PRES MOVING ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC
COAST TONIGHT WILL RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS
WILL BE COMING TO AN END W/CLEARING EXPECTED. THIS SHOWS UP ON THE
12Z NAM AND GFS SOUNDINGS W/THE 850-700MB LAYER DRYING OUT.
THEREFORE, DECIDED TO DROP POPS BACK BELOW 15% BY THE EVENING.
WINDS WILL BE DROPPING OFF AS WELL W/THE RIDGE BUILDING IN. THE
COMBINATION OF THE CLEAR SKIES/LIGHT WINDS AND COLD AIRMASS IN
PLACE WILL LEAD TO SOME COLD TEMPERATURES FOR LATE NOVEMBER. WE
ARE TALKING SINGLE NUMBERS FOR THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF MAINE
W/READINGS AOB BELOW 0F FOR AREAS ACROSS THE NORTHERN BORDER AND
BACK TO NW. 10-15 DEGREES SHOULD DO FOR CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST
AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE NEAR CAPE HATTERAS LATE SATURDAY WILL MOVE TO
THE EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL TIGHTEN
SOUTHWESTERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THE DEPARTING HIGH
RESULTING IN OVER-RUNNING PRECIPITATION BREAKING OUT FROM THE
GREAT LAKES INTO WESTERN MAINE. EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO BEGIN AS
SNOW SUNDAY THEN QUICKLY TRANSITION TO MIXED AS STRONG WARM
ADVECTION TAKES PALCE ALOFT AS PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO
TIGHTEN BETWEEN DEEP LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC. WILL USE THE MOSG25 FOR
WINDS SINCE IT CAN BETTER HANDLE DECOUPLING WINDS IN ENTRENCHED
COLD AIR MASS AT SURFACE. FOR TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT WILL USE
NAM12 DURING WARM ADVECTION ALOFT THEN TRANSITION TO RAW BLEND TO
BETTER HANDLE TRANSITION TO WARM AIR MASS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
INTENSE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF JAMES BAY MONDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL
PIVOT AROUND THE SOUTH PORTION OF THE LOW AND MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION EARLY TUESDAY. THE ECMWF IS SIMILAR WITH THIS SYSTEM AND
SLIGHTLY FURTHER TO THE EAST. ALL 12 GFS EMSEMBLE PERTURBATIONS
ALSO SIMILAR WITH TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM ALTHOUGH SOME VARY IN BOTH
INTENSITY AND TIMIMG. SO EXPECT TRANSITION TO LIQUID PRECIPITATION
TO TAKE PLACE QUICKLY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH DYNAMIC
SYSTEM PASSING TO THE WEST. FOR TUESDAY EXPECT DRIER AIR MASS WITH
COLD ADVECTION CONTINUING BEHIND DEPARTING LOW. FOR WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY BOTH OPERATIONAL GFS....OPERATIONAL ECMWF AND MOST GFS
ENSEMBLE PERTURBATIONS INDICATE DEVELOPMENT OVER ATLANTIC ALONG
EAST COAST. GFS EMSEMBLE DIVIDED ON INTENSITY AND TRACK OF THIS
SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR RIGHT INTO SATURDAY W/THE EXCEPTION FOR KFVE AS
MVFR IS POSSIBLE W/THE LIGHT SNOW. EVEN KCAR RUNS THE RISK OF
SEEING A PERIOD OF MVFR.

SHORT TERM: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY THEN IFR CONDITIONS
MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY. CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR TUESDAY.
VFR CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: EXTENDED THE SCA THROUGH 12 PM SATURDAY AS WINDS GUSTS
TO 25 KTS STILL POSSIBLE. A LLVL JET OF AROUND 40 KT IS FORECAST
TO SET UP OVER THE WATERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF THIS WIND TO MIX DOWN TO
THE SURFACE. ATTM, BROUGHT WINDS GUSTS NEAR 35 KTS BY 00Z. LATER
CREWS CAN ASSESS THE NEED TO UPGRADE TO GALES IF NEEDED. WAVE
HEIGHTS ATTM WERE RUNNING 4-5 FT AND ARE FORECAST TO DROP BACK
INTO SATURDAY W/THE OFFSHORE WIND.

SHORT TERM: FOR SUSTAINED WINDS WILL USE THE NAM12 SUNDAY AND
MONDAY THEN TRANSITION TO THE SUPER BLEND WINDS. FOR WAVES: EXPECT
SOTHERLY WIND WAVE TO BECOME THE PRIMARY WAVE SYSTEM SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY AS HIGH CENTER MOVES OFF THE COAST INTO THE
ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERLY FETCH INCREASES FROM THE GULF OF MAINE
SOUTHWARD. EXPECT SOUTHERLY WAVE SYSTEM TO PERSIST INTO EARLY
TUESDAY THEN BE BROKEN UP BY OFF-SHORE FLOW AS A COLD FRONT PASSES
TUESDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HASTINGS/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...MIGNONE
LONG TERM...MIGNONE
AVIATION...HASTINGS/HEWITT/MIGNONE
MARINE...HASTINGS/HEWITT/MIGNONE




000
FXUS61 KGYX 220504
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1204 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND
SATURDAY MORNING. WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES WEST ACROSS SOUTHERN
QUEBEC LATE SAT AND SAT NIGHT...AND COULD SET OFF A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS. WARMER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM
ON SUNDAY. A LARGE LOW PRESSURE AREAS MOVES NORTHEAST OUT OF THE
GREAT LAKES AND THROUGH THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY SUN NIGHT AND
MONDAY...BRINGING A PERIOD OF MAINLY RAIN TO THE REGION. A COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE AREA TUESDAY. A SERIES OF COASTAL LOWS WILL
TRACK OFFSHORE DURING THE MID TO LATE WEEK HOLIDAY PERIOD, AND
COULD BRING SOME RAIN OR SNOW TO COASTAL AREAS DURING THE THIS
TIME.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...

1201 AM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO INGEST MESONET INTO 1ST PERIOD
GRIDS.

PREV DISC...
1045 PM UPDATE...LITTLE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST. CONTINUED MOSTLY
CLEAR AND COLD TONIGHT WITH GRADUALLY DIMINISHING WINDS. CLOUDS
WILL BE A LITTLE MORE PREVALENT IN NORTHERN NH AND THE ADJACENT
WESTERN ME MOUNTAINS.

610 PM UPDATE...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE LATEST FORECAST. JUST A
FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS...WIND...AND SKY BASED ON LATEST
TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONAL DATA. OVERALL...A COLD NIGHT!

PREVIOUSLY...

COLD AIR HAS MOVED INTO THE REGION TOADY. THE MOUNTAINS SAW A FEW
SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH EVENING... BEFORE DECREASING OFF OVERNIGHT AS A SURFACE
INVERSION SETS UP. THE FEW CLOUDS IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL DISSIPATE
AT SUNSET ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURES TO DROP RAPIDLY THROUGH THE
EVENING WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS IN THE MOUNTAINS. WHILE
GUIDANCE SUGGEST TEMPS ABOVE ZERO... WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO
SEE A FEW LOCATIONS RADIATE OUT TO BELOW ZERO AND HAVE LEANED ON
THE COLDER SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY WILL SEE THE COLD AIR BEGIN TO MOVE OUT AS A HIGH BUILDS
IN TO OUR SOUTH. THIS WILL TURN FLOW OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST BY
MIDDAY... ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO INCREASE TO THE MID 30S. WITH
THE WARMER AIR COMES SOME MOISTURE ... RESULTING IN PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES BY MID AFTERNOON. A VERY WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL PASS BY
SATURDAY NIGHT AND WILL ALLOW FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS...WHICH MAY
RESULT IN POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN IN COLDER VALLEYS OF WESTERN
NEW HAMPSHIRE. WHILE THE TEMPERATURE STRUCTURE SUPPORTS SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN, THERE IS VERY LIMITED MOISTURE SO SIGNIFICANT
ICING IS NOT A THREAT. OVERALL EXPECT A WINTER MIX IN NEW
HAMPSHIRE AND MAINE MOUNTAINS BEFORE SUNDAY WHEN TEMPERATURES WARM
WELL BEYOND THE FREEZING POINT RESULTING IN A SWITCH TO RAIN
SHOWERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE WEAKLY AMPLIFIED 500MB EARLY IN THE LONG RANGE EVENTUALLY
BECOMES SOMEWHAT MORE AMPLIFIED THROUGH THE WEEK...BUT THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT BLOCKING SHIFTS FROM THE PACIFIC TO THE ERN ATLANTIC
AND EUROPE. THIS WILL LEAD TO A MORE UNSTABLE PATTERN WITH
SMALLER...BUT MORE FREQUENT WAVES ALOFT...AND WILL SHIFT THE
COLDEST AIR BACK OVER NOAM BACK POLEWARD. THEREFORE EXPECT THE
HOLIDAY WEEK TO BE WARMER OVERALL...BUT CHANGEABLE.

SUNDAY WE WILL SEE WINDS SHIFT TO SW WITH P/SUNNY SKIES AND
DAYTIME HIGHS ABV NORMAL...GENERALLY IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50. THE
NEXT CHC OF PRECIP ARRIVES SUN NIGHT AS 500MB TROUGH DEEPENS OVER
THE MID SECTION OF THE CONUS SUN NIGHT AND LIFTS NE MON-TUE. THIS
WILL ENHANCE DEP LYR SW FLOW...AND WILL BRING S A BOUT OF WAA
PRECIP TO THE AREA LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON...ESPECIALLY IN THE
MORNING. TEMPS SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH THAT MOST PLACES WILL SEE
JUST RAIN...BUT...LATE SUN NIGHT INTO EARLY MON MORNING COULD SEE
SOME AREAS OF PL/FZRA...MAINLY IN THE SHELTERED MTN VLYS. BY MON
MORNING...EVERYWHERE IS EXPECTED TO GO TO RAIN. ITS LKLY THAT
SKIES REMAIN M/CDY AS WARM SECTOR STAYS ALOFT WITH MARINE LYR IN
PLACE NEAR THE SFC...BUT STILL THIS WILL PUSH TEMPS INTO 50S IN
MANY SPOTS. ANY SUBSTANTIAL BREAKS OF SUN COULD PUSH TEMPS
SOMEWHAT HIGHER.

THE COLD FRONT DOESN`T REALLY CROSS THE REGION UNTIL LATE MON
NIGHT OR TUE...SO SHOULD BE MILD MON NIGHT WITH A CHC OF SHOWERS.
THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH BY TUE EVENING...BUT WILL STILL BE ON THE
WARMER SIDE TUE WITH HIGHS IN THE OW 40S TO LOW 50S.

SEVERAL WAVES OF ENERGY FEED INTO THE 500MB TROUGH OVER CENTRAL
NOAM WED-FRI...WHICH WILL HOLD IT IN PLACE TO OUR WEST. AS THIS
WAVES ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND HEAD NE...THEY WILL
PRODUCE SEVERAL COASTAL LOWS THAT WILL TRACK OFFSHORE. 12Z MODELS
SUGGEST GLANCING BLOWS AND POSSIBLE LIGHT PRECIP FOR OUR COASTAL
AREAS LATE WED AGAIN ON FRIDAY....WITH A BREAK ON THANKSGIVING.
HAVE ADDED CHC POPS FOR THE COASTAL PLAIN WED AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT...WITH P-TYPE UNCERTAIN ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST...BUT LKLY
SNOW A BIT FURTHER INLAND...IF PRECIP MAKES IT THAT FAR. FRIDAY
SYSTEM LOOKS TO STAY FURTHER OFFSHORE...BUT STILL WAY TOO EARLY
FOR MUCH CONFIDENCE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM... DECREASING WINDS TONIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EVERYWHERE BUT HIE WHERE SOME MVFR SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE EARLY MORNING.

LONG TERM...A PERIOD OF IFR OR LOWER IS EXPECTED IN RA/STRATUS
SUN NIGHT INTO MON MORNING. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS IN RA/SN AT COASTAL TERMINALS LATE WED AND WED
NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM... HAVE DROPPED THE GALE WARNING IN FAVOR OF A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY AS PEAK WINDS HAVE COME DOWN BELOW 35KTS. WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND THE SCA SHOULD BE
DONE BY 12Z. MEANWHILE THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE HIGH
WILL INCREASE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND MORE HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED.

LONG TERM...SCA IS LKLY SUN NIGHT INTO MON...WITH POTENTIAL FOR
LOW END GALES ON MON. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS TUE AND SCA
WILL PROB IN NW FLOW TUE INTO TUE NIGHT.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$
ES



000
FXUS61 KGYX 220504
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1204 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND
SATURDAY MORNING. WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES WEST ACROSS SOUTHERN
QUEBEC LATE SAT AND SAT NIGHT...AND COULD SET OFF A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS. WARMER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM
ON SUNDAY. A LARGE LOW PRESSURE AREAS MOVES NORTHEAST OUT OF THE
GREAT LAKES AND THROUGH THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY SUN NIGHT AND
MONDAY...BRINGING A PERIOD OF MAINLY RAIN TO THE REGION. A COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE AREA TUESDAY. A SERIES OF COASTAL LOWS WILL
TRACK OFFSHORE DURING THE MID TO LATE WEEK HOLIDAY PERIOD, AND
COULD BRING SOME RAIN OR SNOW TO COASTAL AREAS DURING THE THIS
TIME.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...

1201 AM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO INGEST MESONET INTO 1ST PERIOD
GRIDS.

PREV DISC...
1045 PM UPDATE...LITTLE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST. CONTINUED MOSTLY
CLEAR AND COLD TONIGHT WITH GRADUALLY DIMINISHING WINDS. CLOUDS
WILL BE A LITTLE MORE PREVALENT IN NORTHERN NH AND THE ADJACENT
WESTERN ME MOUNTAINS.

610 PM UPDATE...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE LATEST FORECAST. JUST A
FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS...WIND...AND SKY BASED ON LATEST
TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONAL DATA. OVERALL...A COLD NIGHT!

PREVIOUSLY...

COLD AIR HAS MOVED INTO THE REGION TOADY. THE MOUNTAINS SAW A FEW
SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH EVENING... BEFORE DECREASING OFF OVERNIGHT AS A SURFACE
INVERSION SETS UP. THE FEW CLOUDS IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL DISSIPATE
AT SUNSET ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURES TO DROP RAPIDLY THROUGH THE
EVENING WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS IN THE MOUNTAINS. WHILE
GUIDANCE SUGGEST TEMPS ABOVE ZERO... WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO
SEE A FEW LOCATIONS RADIATE OUT TO BELOW ZERO AND HAVE LEANED ON
THE COLDER SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY WILL SEE THE COLD AIR BEGIN TO MOVE OUT AS A HIGH BUILDS
IN TO OUR SOUTH. THIS WILL TURN FLOW OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST BY
MIDDAY... ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO INCREASE TO THE MID 30S. WITH
THE WARMER AIR COMES SOME MOISTURE ... RESULTING IN PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES BY MID AFTERNOON. A VERY WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL PASS BY
SATURDAY NIGHT AND WILL ALLOW FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS...WHICH MAY
RESULT IN POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN IN COLDER VALLEYS OF WESTERN
NEW HAMPSHIRE. WHILE THE TEMPERATURE STRUCTURE SUPPORTS SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN, THERE IS VERY LIMITED MOISTURE SO SIGNIFICANT
ICING IS NOT A THREAT. OVERALL EXPECT A WINTER MIX IN NEW
HAMPSHIRE AND MAINE MOUNTAINS BEFORE SUNDAY WHEN TEMPERATURES WARM
WELL BEYOND THE FREEZING POINT RESULTING IN A SWITCH TO RAIN
SHOWERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE WEAKLY AMPLIFIED 500MB EARLY IN THE LONG RANGE EVENTUALLY
BECOMES SOMEWHAT MORE AMPLIFIED THROUGH THE WEEK...BUT THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT BLOCKING SHIFTS FROM THE PACIFIC TO THE ERN ATLANTIC
AND EUROPE. THIS WILL LEAD TO A MORE UNSTABLE PATTERN WITH
SMALLER...BUT MORE FREQUENT WAVES ALOFT...AND WILL SHIFT THE
COLDEST AIR BACK OVER NOAM BACK POLEWARD. THEREFORE EXPECT THE
HOLIDAY WEEK TO BE WARMER OVERALL...BUT CHANGEABLE.

SUNDAY WE WILL SEE WINDS SHIFT TO SW WITH P/SUNNY SKIES AND
DAYTIME HIGHS ABV NORMAL...GENERALLY IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50. THE
NEXT CHC OF PRECIP ARRIVES SUN NIGHT AS 500MB TROUGH DEEPENS OVER
THE MID SECTION OF THE CONUS SUN NIGHT AND LIFTS NE MON-TUE. THIS
WILL ENHANCE DEP LYR SW FLOW...AND WILL BRING S A BOUT OF WAA
PRECIP TO THE AREA LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON...ESPECIALLY IN THE
MORNING. TEMPS SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH THAT MOST PLACES WILL SEE
JUST RAIN...BUT...LATE SUN NIGHT INTO EARLY MON MORNING COULD SEE
SOME AREAS OF PL/FZRA...MAINLY IN THE SHELTERED MTN VLYS. BY MON
MORNING...EVERYWHERE IS EXPECTED TO GO TO RAIN. ITS LKLY THAT
SKIES REMAIN M/CDY AS WARM SECTOR STAYS ALOFT WITH MARINE LYR IN
PLACE NEAR THE SFC...BUT STILL THIS WILL PUSH TEMPS INTO 50S IN
MANY SPOTS. ANY SUBSTANTIAL BREAKS OF SUN COULD PUSH TEMPS
SOMEWHAT HIGHER.

THE COLD FRONT DOESN`T REALLY CROSS THE REGION UNTIL LATE MON
NIGHT OR TUE...SO SHOULD BE MILD MON NIGHT WITH A CHC OF SHOWERS.
THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH BY TUE EVENING...BUT WILL STILL BE ON THE
WARMER SIDE TUE WITH HIGHS IN THE OW 40S TO LOW 50S.

SEVERAL WAVES OF ENERGY FEED INTO THE 500MB TROUGH OVER CENTRAL
NOAM WED-FRI...WHICH WILL HOLD IT IN PLACE TO OUR WEST. AS THIS
WAVES ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND HEAD NE...THEY WILL
PRODUCE SEVERAL COASTAL LOWS THAT WILL TRACK OFFSHORE. 12Z MODELS
SUGGEST GLANCING BLOWS AND POSSIBLE LIGHT PRECIP FOR OUR COASTAL
AREAS LATE WED AGAIN ON FRIDAY....WITH A BREAK ON THANKSGIVING.
HAVE ADDED CHC POPS FOR THE COASTAL PLAIN WED AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT...WITH P-TYPE UNCERTAIN ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST...BUT LKLY
SNOW A BIT FURTHER INLAND...IF PRECIP MAKES IT THAT FAR. FRIDAY
SYSTEM LOOKS TO STAY FURTHER OFFSHORE...BUT STILL WAY TOO EARLY
FOR MUCH CONFIDENCE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM... DECREASING WINDS TONIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EVERYWHERE BUT HIE WHERE SOME MVFR SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE EARLY MORNING.

LONG TERM...A PERIOD OF IFR OR LOWER IS EXPECTED IN RA/STRATUS
SUN NIGHT INTO MON MORNING. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS IN RA/SN AT COASTAL TERMINALS LATE WED AND WED
NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM... HAVE DROPPED THE GALE WARNING IN FAVOR OF A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY AS PEAK WINDS HAVE COME DOWN BELOW 35KTS. WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND THE SCA SHOULD BE
DONE BY 12Z. MEANWHILE THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE HIGH
WILL INCREASE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND MORE HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED.

LONG TERM...SCA IS LKLY SUN NIGHT INTO MON...WITH POTENTIAL FOR
LOW END GALES ON MON. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS TUE AND SCA
WILL PROB IN NW FLOW TUE INTO TUE NIGHT.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$
ES




000
FXUS61 KGYX 220348
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1048 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY MORNING. WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES WEST ACROSS SOUTHERN
QUEBEC LATE SAT AND SAT NIGHT...AND COULD SET OFF A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS. WARMER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM
ON SUNDAY. A LARGE LOW PRESSURE AREAS MOVES NORTHEAST OUT OF THE
GREAT LAKES AND THROUGH THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY SUN NIGHT AND
MONDAY...BRINGING A PERIOD OF MAINLY RAIN TO THE REGION. A COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE AREA TUESDAY. A SERIES OF COASTAL LOWS WILL
TRACK OFFSHORE DURING THE MID TO LATE WEEK HOLIDAY PERIOD, AND
COULD BRING SOME RAIN OR SNOW TO COASTAL AREAS DURING THE THIS
TIME.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
1045 PM UPDATE...LITTLE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST. CONTINUED MOSTLY
CLEAR AND COLD TONIGHT WITH GRADUALLY DIMINISHING WINDS. CLOUDS
WILL BE A LITTLE MORE PREVALENT IN NORTHERN NH AND THE ADJACENT
WESTERN ME MOUNTAINS.

610 PM UPDATE...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE LATEST FORECAST. JUST A
FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS...WIND...AND SKY BASED ON LATEST
TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONAL DATA. OVERALL...A COLD NIGHT!

PREVIOUSLY...

COLD AIR HAS MOVED INTO THE REGION TOADY. THE MOUNTAINS SAW A FEW
SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH EVENING... BEFORE DECREASING OFF OVERNIGHT AS A SURFACE
INVERSION SETS UP. THE FEW CLOUDS IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL DISSIPATE
AT SUNSET ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURES TO DROP RAPIDLY THROUGH THE
EVENING WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS IN THE MOUNTAINS. WHILE
GUIDANCE SUGGEST TEMPS ABOVE ZERO... WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO
SEE A FEW LOCATIONS RADIATE OUT TO BELOW ZERO AND HAVE LEANED ON
THE COLDER SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY WILL SEE THE COLD AIR BEGIN TO MOVE OUT AS A HIGH BUILDS
IN TO OUR SOUTH. THIS WILL TURN FLOW OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST BY
MIDDAY... ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO INCREASE TO THE MID 30S. WITH
THE WARMER AIR COMES SOME MOISTURE ... RESULTING IN PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES BY MID AFTERNOON. A VERY WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL PASS BY
SATURDAY NIGHT AND WILL ALLOW FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS...WHICH MAY
RESULT IN POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN IN COLDER VALLEYS OF WESTERN
NEW HAMPSHIRE. WHILE THE TEMPERATURE STRUCTURE SUPPORTS SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN, THERE IS VERY LIMITED MOISTURE SO SIGNIFICANT
ICING IS NOT A THREAT. OVERALL EXPECT A WINTER MIX IN NEW
HAMPSHIRE AND MAINE MOUNTAINS BEFORE SUNDAY WHEN TEMPERATURES WARM
WELL BEYOND THE FREEZING POINT RESULTING IN A SWITCH TO RAIN
SHOWERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE WEAKLY AMPLIFIED 500MB EARLY IN THE LONG RANGE EVENTUALLY
BECOMES SOMEWHAT MORE AMPLIFIED THROUGH THE WEEK...BUT THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT BLOCKING SHIFTS FROM THE PACIFIC TO THE ERN ATLANTIC
AND EUROPE. THIS WILL LEAD TO A MORE UNSTABLE PATTERN WITH
SMALLER...BUT MORE FREQUENT WAVES ALOFT...AND WILL SHIFT THE
COLDEST AIR BACK OVER NOAM BACK POLEWARD. THEREFORE EXPECT THE
HOLIDAY WEEK TO BE WARMER OVERALL...BUT CHANGEABLE.

SUNDAY WE WILL SEE WINDS SHIFT TO SW WITH P/SUNNY SKIES AND
DAYTIME HIGHS ABV NORMAL...GENERALLY IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50. THE
NEXT CHC OF PRECIP ARRIVES SUN NIGHT AS 500MB TROUGH DEEPENS OVER
THE MID SECTION OF THE CONUS SUN NIGHT AND LIFTS NE MON-TUE. THIS
WILL ENHANCE DEP LYR SW FLOW...AND WILL BRING S A BOUT OF WAA
PRECIP TO THE AREA LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON...ESPECIALLY IN THE
MORNING. TEMPS SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH THAT MOST PLACES WILL SEE
JUST RAIN...BUT...LATE SUN NIGHT INTO EARLY MON MORNING COULD SEE
SOME AREAS OF PL/FZRA...MAINLY IN THE SHELTERED MTN VLYS. BY MON
MORNING...EVERYWHERE IS EXPECTED TO GO TO RAIN. ITS LKLY THAT
SKIES REMAIN M/CDY AS WARM SECTOR STAYS ALOFT WITH MARINE LYR IN
PLACE NEAR THE SFC...BUT STILL THIS WILL PUSH TEMPS INTO 50S IN
MANY SPOTS. ANY SUBSTANTIAL BREAKS OF SUN COULD PUSH TEMPS
SOMEWHAT HIGHER.

THE COLD FRONT DOESN`T REALLY CROSS THE REGION UNTIL LATE MON
NIGHT OR TUE...SO SHOULD BE MILD MON NIGHT WITH A CHC OF SHOWERS.
THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH BY TUE EVENING...BUT WILL STILL BE ON THE
WARMER SIDE TUE WITH HIGHS IN THE OW 40S TO LOW 50S.

SEVERAL WAVES OF ENERGY FEED INTO THE 500MB TROUGH OVER CENTRAL
NOAM WED-FRI...WHICH WILL HOLD IT IN PLACE TO OUR WEST. AS THIS
WAVES ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND HEAD NE...THEY WILL
PRODUCE SEVERAL COASTAL LOWS THAT WILL TRACK OFFSHORE. 12Z MODELS
SUGGEST GLANCING BLOWS AND POSSIBLE LIGHT PRECIP FOR OUR COASTAL
AREAS LATE WED AGAIN ON FRIDAY....WITH A BREAK ON THANKSGIVING.
HAVE ADDED CHC POPS FOR THE COASTAL PLAIN WED AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT...WITH P-TYPE UNCERTAIN ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST...BUT LKLY
SNOW A BIT FURTHER INLAND...IF PRECIP MAKES IT THAT FAR. FRIDAY
SYSTEM LOOKS TO STAY FURTHER OFFSHORE...BUT STILL WAY TOO EARLY
FOR MUCH CONFIDENCE.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM... DECREASING WINDS TONIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EVERYWHERE BUT HIE WHERE SOME MVFR SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE EARLY MORNING.

LONG TERM...A PERIOD OF IFR OR LOWER IS EXPECTED IN RA/STRATUS
SUN NIGHT INTO MON MORNING. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS IN RA/SN AT COASTAL TERMINALS LATE WED AND WED
NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM... HAVE DROPPED THE GALE WARNING IN FAVOR OF A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY AS PEAK WINDS HAVE COME DOWN BELOW 35KTS. WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND THE SCA SHOULD BE
DONE BY 12Z. MEANWHILE THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE HIGH
WILL INCREASE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND MORE HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED.

LONG TERM...SCA IS LKLY SUN NIGHT INTO MON...WITH POTENTIAL FOR
LOW END GALES ON MON. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS TUE AND SCA
WILL PROB IN NW FLOW TUE INTO TUE NIGHT.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM UPDATE...EKSTER
SHORT TERM...CURTIS
LONG TERM...CEMPA
AVIATION...CEMPA/CURTIS
MARINE...CEMPA/CURTIS




000
FXUS61 KGYX 220348
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1048 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY MORNING. WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES WEST ACROSS SOUTHERN
QUEBEC LATE SAT AND SAT NIGHT...AND COULD SET OFF A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS. WARMER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM
ON SUNDAY. A LARGE LOW PRESSURE AREAS MOVES NORTHEAST OUT OF THE
GREAT LAKES AND THROUGH THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY SUN NIGHT AND
MONDAY...BRINGING A PERIOD OF MAINLY RAIN TO THE REGION. A COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE AREA TUESDAY. A SERIES OF COASTAL LOWS WILL
TRACK OFFSHORE DURING THE MID TO LATE WEEK HOLIDAY PERIOD, AND
COULD BRING SOME RAIN OR SNOW TO COASTAL AREAS DURING THE THIS
TIME.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
1045 PM UPDATE...LITTLE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST. CONTINUED MOSTLY
CLEAR AND COLD TONIGHT WITH GRADUALLY DIMINISHING WINDS. CLOUDS
WILL BE A LITTLE MORE PREVALENT IN NORTHERN NH AND THE ADJACENT
WESTERN ME MOUNTAINS.

610 PM UPDATE...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE LATEST FORECAST. JUST A
FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS...WIND...AND SKY BASED ON LATEST
TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONAL DATA. OVERALL...A COLD NIGHT!

PREVIOUSLY...

COLD AIR HAS MOVED INTO THE REGION TOADY. THE MOUNTAINS SAW A FEW
SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH EVENING... BEFORE DECREASING OFF OVERNIGHT AS A SURFACE
INVERSION SETS UP. THE FEW CLOUDS IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL DISSIPATE
AT SUNSET ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURES TO DROP RAPIDLY THROUGH THE
EVENING WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS IN THE MOUNTAINS. WHILE
GUIDANCE SUGGEST TEMPS ABOVE ZERO... WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO
SEE A FEW LOCATIONS RADIATE OUT TO BELOW ZERO AND HAVE LEANED ON
THE COLDER SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY WILL SEE THE COLD AIR BEGIN TO MOVE OUT AS A HIGH BUILDS
IN TO OUR SOUTH. THIS WILL TURN FLOW OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST BY
MIDDAY... ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO INCREASE TO THE MID 30S. WITH
THE WARMER AIR COMES SOME MOISTURE ... RESULTING IN PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES BY MID AFTERNOON. A VERY WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL PASS BY
SATURDAY NIGHT AND WILL ALLOW FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS...WHICH MAY
RESULT IN POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN IN COLDER VALLEYS OF WESTERN
NEW HAMPSHIRE. WHILE THE TEMPERATURE STRUCTURE SUPPORTS SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN, THERE IS VERY LIMITED MOISTURE SO SIGNIFICANT
ICING IS NOT A THREAT. OVERALL EXPECT A WINTER MIX IN NEW
HAMPSHIRE AND MAINE MOUNTAINS BEFORE SUNDAY WHEN TEMPERATURES WARM
WELL BEYOND THE FREEZING POINT RESULTING IN A SWITCH TO RAIN
SHOWERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE WEAKLY AMPLIFIED 500MB EARLY IN THE LONG RANGE EVENTUALLY
BECOMES SOMEWHAT MORE AMPLIFIED THROUGH THE WEEK...BUT THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT BLOCKING SHIFTS FROM THE PACIFIC TO THE ERN ATLANTIC
AND EUROPE. THIS WILL LEAD TO A MORE UNSTABLE PATTERN WITH
SMALLER...BUT MORE FREQUENT WAVES ALOFT...AND WILL SHIFT THE
COLDEST AIR BACK OVER NOAM BACK POLEWARD. THEREFORE EXPECT THE
HOLIDAY WEEK TO BE WARMER OVERALL...BUT CHANGEABLE.

SUNDAY WE WILL SEE WINDS SHIFT TO SW WITH P/SUNNY SKIES AND
DAYTIME HIGHS ABV NORMAL...GENERALLY IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50. THE
NEXT CHC OF PRECIP ARRIVES SUN NIGHT AS 500MB TROUGH DEEPENS OVER
THE MID SECTION OF THE CONUS SUN NIGHT AND LIFTS NE MON-TUE. THIS
WILL ENHANCE DEP LYR SW FLOW...AND WILL BRING S A BOUT OF WAA
PRECIP TO THE AREA LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON...ESPECIALLY IN THE
MORNING. TEMPS SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH THAT MOST PLACES WILL SEE
JUST RAIN...BUT...LATE SUN NIGHT INTO EARLY MON MORNING COULD SEE
SOME AREAS OF PL/FZRA...MAINLY IN THE SHELTERED MTN VLYS. BY MON
MORNING...EVERYWHERE IS EXPECTED TO GO TO RAIN. ITS LKLY THAT
SKIES REMAIN M/CDY AS WARM SECTOR STAYS ALOFT WITH MARINE LYR IN
PLACE NEAR THE SFC...BUT STILL THIS WILL PUSH TEMPS INTO 50S IN
MANY SPOTS. ANY SUBSTANTIAL BREAKS OF SUN COULD PUSH TEMPS
SOMEWHAT HIGHER.

THE COLD FRONT DOESN`T REALLY CROSS THE REGION UNTIL LATE MON
NIGHT OR TUE...SO SHOULD BE MILD MON NIGHT WITH A CHC OF SHOWERS.
THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH BY TUE EVENING...BUT WILL STILL BE ON THE
WARMER SIDE TUE WITH HIGHS IN THE OW 40S TO LOW 50S.

SEVERAL WAVES OF ENERGY FEED INTO THE 500MB TROUGH OVER CENTRAL
NOAM WED-FRI...WHICH WILL HOLD IT IN PLACE TO OUR WEST. AS THIS
WAVES ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND HEAD NE...THEY WILL
PRODUCE SEVERAL COASTAL LOWS THAT WILL TRACK OFFSHORE. 12Z MODELS
SUGGEST GLANCING BLOWS AND POSSIBLE LIGHT PRECIP FOR OUR COASTAL
AREAS LATE WED AGAIN ON FRIDAY....WITH A BREAK ON THANKSGIVING.
HAVE ADDED CHC POPS FOR THE COASTAL PLAIN WED AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT...WITH P-TYPE UNCERTAIN ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST...BUT LKLY
SNOW A BIT FURTHER INLAND...IF PRECIP MAKES IT THAT FAR. FRIDAY
SYSTEM LOOKS TO STAY FURTHER OFFSHORE...BUT STILL WAY TOO EARLY
FOR MUCH CONFIDENCE.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM... DECREASING WINDS TONIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EVERYWHERE BUT HIE WHERE SOME MVFR SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE EARLY MORNING.

LONG TERM...A PERIOD OF IFR OR LOWER IS EXPECTED IN RA/STRATUS
SUN NIGHT INTO MON MORNING. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS IN RA/SN AT COASTAL TERMINALS LATE WED AND WED
NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM... HAVE DROPPED THE GALE WARNING IN FAVOR OF A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY AS PEAK WINDS HAVE COME DOWN BELOW 35KTS. WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND THE SCA SHOULD BE
DONE BY 12Z. MEANWHILE THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE HIGH
WILL INCREASE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND MORE HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED.

LONG TERM...SCA IS LKLY SUN NIGHT INTO MON...WITH POTENTIAL FOR
LOW END GALES ON MON. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS TUE AND SCA
WILL PROB IN NW FLOW TUE INTO TUE NIGHT.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM UPDATE...EKSTER
SHORT TERM...CURTIS
LONG TERM...CEMPA
AVIATION...CEMPA/CURTIS
MARINE...CEMPA/CURTIS




000
FXUS61 KGYX 220348
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1048 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY MORNING. WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES WEST ACROSS SOUTHERN
QUEBEC LATE SAT AND SAT NIGHT...AND COULD SET OFF A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS. WARMER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM
ON SUNDAY. A LARGE LOW PRESSURE AREAS MOVES NORTHEAST OUT OF THE
GREAT LAKES AND THROUGH THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY SUN NIGHT AND
MONDAY...BRINGING A PERIOD OF MAINLY RAIN TO THE REGION. A COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE AREA TUESDAY. A SERIES OF COASTAL LOWS WILL
TRACK OFFSHORE DURING THE MID TO LATE WEEK HOLIDAY PERIOD, AND
COULD BRING SOME RAIN OR SNOW TO COASTAL AREAS DURING THE THIS
TIME.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
1045 PM UPDATE...LITTLE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST. CONTINUED MOSTLY
CLEAR AND COLD TONIGHT WITH GRADUALLY DIMINISHING WINDS. CLOUDS
WILL BE A LITTLE MORE PREVALENT IN NORTHERN NH AND THE ADJACENT
WESTERN ME MOUNTAINS.

610 PM UPDATE...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE LATEST FORECAST. JUST A
FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS...WIND...AND SKY BASED ON LATEST
TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONAL DATA. OVERALL...A COLD NIGHT!

PREVIOUSLY...

COLD AIR HAS MOVED INTO THE REGION TOADY. THE MOUNTAINS SAW A FEW
SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH EVENING... BEFORE DECREASING OFF OVERNIGHT AS A SURFACE
INVERSION SETS UP. THE FEW CLOUDS IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL DISSIPATE
AT SUNSET ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURES TO DROP RAPIDLY THROUGH THE
EVENING WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS IN THE MOUNTAINS. WHILE
GUIDANCE SUGGEST TEMPS ABOVE ZERO... WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO
SEE A FEW LOCATIONS RADIATE OUT TO BELOW ZERO AND HAVE LEANED ON
THE COLDER SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY WILL SEE THE COLD AIR BEGIN TO MOVE OUT AS A HIGH BUILDS
IN TO OUR SOUTH. THIS WILL TURN FLOW OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST BY
MIDDAY... ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO INCREASE TO THE MID 30S. WITH
THE WARMER AIR COMES SOME MOISTURE ... RESULTING IN PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES BY MID AFTERNOON. A VERY WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL PASS BY
SATURDAY NIGHT AND WILL ALLOW FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS...WHICH MAY
RESULT IN POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN IN COLDER VALLEYS OF WESTERN
NEW HAMPSHIRE. WHILE THE TEMPERATURE STRUCTURE SUPPORTS SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN, THERE IS VERY LIMITED MOISTURE SO SIGNIFICANT
ICING IS NOT A THREAT. OVERALL EXPECT A WINTER MIX IN NEW
HAMPSHIRE AND MAINE MOUNTAINS BEFORE SUNDAY WHEN TEMPERATURES WARM
WELL BEYOND THE FREEZING POINT RESULTING IN A SWITCH TO RAIN
SHOWERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE WEAKLY AMPLIFIED 500MB EARLY IN THE LONG RANGE EVENTUALLY
BECOMES SOMEWHAT MORE AMPLIFIED THROUGH THE WEEK...BUT THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT BLOCKING SHIFTS FROM THE PACIFIC TO THE ERN ATLANTIC
AND EUROPE. THIS WILL LEAD TO A MORE UNSTABLE PATTERN WITH
SMALLER...BUT MORE FREQUENT WAVES ALOFT...AND WILL SHIFT THE
COLDEST AIR BACK OVER NOAM BACK POLEWARD. THEREFORE EXPECT THE
HOLIDAY WEEK TO BE WARMER OVERALL...BUT CHANGEABLE.

SUNDAY WE WILL SEE WINDS SHIFT TO SW WITH P/SUNNY SKIES AND
DAYTIME HIGHS ABV NORMAL...GENERALLY IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50. THE
NEXT CHC OF PRECIP ARRIVES SUN NIGHT AS 500MB TROUGH DEEPENS OVER
THE MID SECTION OF THE CONUS SUN NIGHT AND LIFTS NE MON-TUE. THIS
WILL ENHANCE DEP LYR SW FLOW...AND WILL BRING S A BOUT OF WAA
PRECIP TO THE AREA LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON...ESPECIALLY IN THE
MORNING. TEMPS SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH THAT MOST PLACES WILL SEE
JUST RAIN...BUT...LATE SUN NIGHT INTO EARLY MON MORNING COULD SEE
SOME AREAS OF PL/FZRA...MAINLY IN THE SHELTERED MTN VLYS. BY MON
MORNING...EVERYWHERE IS EXPECTED TO GO TO RAIN. ITS LKLY THAT
SKIES REMAIN M/CDY AS WARM SECTOR STAYS ALOFT WITH MARINE LYR IN
PLACE NEAR THE SFC...BUT STILL THIS WILL PUSH TEMPS INTO 50S IN
MANY SPOTS. ANY SUBSTANTIAL BREAKS OF SUN COULD PUSH TEMPS
SOMEWHAT HIGHER.

THE COLD FRONT DOESN`T REALLY CROSS THE REGION UNTIL LATE MON
NIGHT OR TUE...SO SHOULD BE MILD MON NIGHT WITH A CHC OF SHOWERS.
THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH BY TUE EVENING...BUT WILL STILL BE ON THE
WARMER SIDE TUE WITH HIGHS IN THE OW 40S TO LOW 50S.

SEVERAL WAVES OF ENERGY FEED INTO THE 500MB TROUGH OVER CENTRAL
NOAM WED-FRI...WHICH WILL HOLD IT IN PLACE TO OUR WEST. AS THIS
WAVES ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND HEAD NE...THEY WILL
PRODUCE SEVERAL COASTAL LOWS THAT WILL TRACK OFFSHORE. 12Z MODELS
SUGGEST GLANCING BLOWS AND POSSIBLE LIGHT PRECIP FOR OUR COASTAL
AREAS LATE WED AGAIN ON FRIDAY....WITH A BREAK ON THANKSGIVING.
HAVE ADDED CHC POPS FOR THE COASTAL PLAIN WED AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT...WITH P-TYPE UNCERTAIN ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST...BUT LKLY
SNOW A BIT FURTHER INLAND...IF PRECIP MAKES IT THAT FAR. FRIDAY
SYSTEM LOOKS TO STAY FURTHER OFFSHORE...BUT STILL WAY TOO EARLY
FOR MUCH CONFIDENCE.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM... DECREASING WINDS TONIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EVERYWHERE BUT HIE WHERE SOME MVFR SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE EARLY MORNING.

LONG TERM...A PERIOD OF IFR OR LOWER IS EXPECTED IN RA/STRATUS
SUN NIGHT INTO MON MORNING. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS IN RA/SN AT COASTAL TERMINALS LATE WED AND WED
NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM... HAVE DROPPED THE GALE WARNING IN FAVOR OF A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY AS PEAK WINDS HAVE COME DOWN BELOW 35KTS. WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND THE SCA SHOULD BE
DONE BY 12Z. MEANWHILE THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE HIGH
WILL INCREASE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND MORE HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED.

LONG TERM...SCA IS LKLY SUN NIGHT INTO MON...WITH POTENTIAL FOR
LOW END GALES ON MON. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS TUE AND SCA
WILL PROB IN NW FLOW TUE INTO TUE NIGHT.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM UPDATE...EKSTER
SHORT TERM...CURTIS
LONG TERM...CEMPA
AVIATION...CEMPA/CURTIS
MARINE...CEMPA/CURTIS




000
FXUS61 KGYX 220348
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1048 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY MORNING. WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES WEST ACROSS SOUTHERN
QUEBEC LATE SAT AND SAT NIGHT...AND COULD SET OFF A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS. WARMER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM
ON SUNDAY. A LARGE LOW PRESSURE AREAS MOVES NORTHEAST OUT OF THE
GREAT LAKES AND THROUGH THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY SUN NIGHT AND
MONDAY...BRINGING A PERIOD OF MAINLY RAIN TO THE REGION. A COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE AREA TUESDAY. A SERIES OF COASTAL LOWS WILL
TRACK OFFSHORE DURING THE MID TO LATE WEEK HOLIDAY PERIOD, AND
COULD BRING SOME RAIN OR SNOW TO COASTAL AREAS DURING THE THIS
TIME.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
1045 PM UPDATE...LITTLE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST. CONTINUED MOSTLY
CLEAR AND COLD TONIGHT WITH GRADUALLY DIMINISHING WINDS. CLOUDS
WILL BE A LITTLE MORE PREVALENT IN NORTHERN NH AND THE ADJACENT
WESTERN ME MOUNTAINS.

610 PM UPDATE...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE LATEST FORECAST. JUST A
FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS...WIND...AND SKY BASED ON LATEST
TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONAL DATA. OVERALL...A COLD NIGHT!

PREVIOUSLY...

COLD AIR HAS MOVED INTO THE REGION TOADY. THE MOUNTAINS SAW A FEW
SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH EVENING... BEFORE DECREASING OFF OVERNIGHT AS A SURFACE
INVERSION SETS UP. THE FEW CLOUDS IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL DISSIPATE
AT SUNSET ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURES TO DROP RAPIDLY THROUGH THE
EVENING WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS IN THE MOUNTAINS. WHILE
GUIDANCE SUGGEST TEMPS ABOVE ZERO... WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO
SEE A FEW LOCATIONS RADIATE OUT TO BELOW ZERO AND HAVE LEANED ON
THE COLDER SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY WILL SEE THE COLD AIR BEGIN TO MOVE OUT AS A HIGH BUILDS
IN TO OUR SOUTH. THIS WILL TURN FLOW OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST BY
MIDDAY... ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO INCREASE TO THE MID 30S. WITH
THE WARMER AIR COMES SOME MOISTURE ... RESULTING IN PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES BY MID AFTERNOON. A VERY WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL PASS BY
SATURDAY NIGHT AND WILL ALLOW FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS...WHICH MAY
RESULT IN POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN IN COLDER VALLEYS OF WESTERN
NEW HAMPSHIRE. WHILE THE TEMPERATURE STRUCTURE SUPPORTS SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN, THERE IS VERY LIMITED MOISTURE SO SIGNIFICANT
ICING IS NOT A THREAT. OVERALL EXPECT A WINTER MIX IN NEW
HAMPSHIRE AND MAINE MOUNTAINS BEFORE SUNDAY WHEN TEMPERATURES WARM
WELL BEYOND THE FREEZING POINT RESULTING IN A SWITCH TO RAIN
SHOWERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE WEAKLY AMPLIFIED 500MB EARLY IN THE LONG RANGE EVENTUALLY
BECOMES SOMEWHAT MORE AMPLIFIED THROUGH THE WEEK...BUT THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT BLOCKING SHIFTS FROM THE PACIFIC TO THE ERN ATLANTIC
AND EUROPE. THIS WILL LEAD TO A MORE UNSTABLE PATTERN WITH
SMALLER...BUT MORE FREQUENT WAVES ALOFT...AND WILL SHIFT THE
COLDEST AIR BACK OVER NOAM BACK POLEWARD. THEREFORE EXPECT THE
HOLIDAY WEEK TO BE WARMER OVERALL...BUT CHANGEABLE.

SUNDAY WE WILL SEE WINDS SHIFT TO SW WITH P/SUNNY SKIES AND
DAYTIME HIGHS ABV NORMAL...GENERALLY IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50. THE
NEXT CHC OF PRECIP ARRIVES SUN NIGHT AS 500MB TROUGH DEEPENS OVER
THE MID SECTION OF THE CONUS SUN NIGHT AND LIFTS NE MON-TUE. THIS
WILL ENHANCE DEP LYR SW FLOW...AND WILL BRING S A BOUT OF WAA
PRECIP TO THE AREA LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON...ESPECIALLY IN THE
MORNING. TEMPS SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH THAT MOST PLACES WILL SEE
JUST RAIN...BUT...LATE SUN NIGHT INTO EARLY MON MORNING COULD SEE
SOME AREAS OF PL/FZRA...MAINLY IN THE SHELTERED MTN VLYS. BY MON
MORNING...EVERYWHERE IS EXPECTED TO GO TO RAIN. ITS LKLY THAT
SKIES REMAIN M/CDY AS WARM SECTOR STAYS ALOFT WITH MARINE LYR IN
PLACE NEAR THE SFC...BUT STILL THIS WILL PUSH TEMPS INTO 50S IN
MANY SPOTS. ANY SUBSTANTIAL BREAKS OF SUN COULD PUSH TEMPS
SOMEWHAT HIGHER.

THE COLD FRONT DOESN`T REALLY CROSS THE REGION UNTIL LATE MON
NIGHT OR TUE...SO SHOULD BE MILD MON NIGHT WITH A CHC OF SHOWERS.
THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH BY TUE EVENING...BUT WILL STILL BE ON THE
WARMER SIDE TUE WITH HIGHS IN THE OW 40S TO LOW 50S.

SEVERAL WAVES OF ENERGY FEED INTO THE 500MB TROUGH OVER CENTRAL
NOAM WED-FRI...WHICH WILL HOLD IT IN PLACE TO OUR WEST. AS THIS
WAVES ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND HEAD NE...THEY WILL
PRODUCE SEVERAL COASTAL LOWS THAT WILL TRACK OFFSHORE. 12Z MODELS
SUGGEST GLANCING BLOWS AND POSSIBLE LIGHT PRECIP FOR OUR COASTAL
AREAS LATE WED AGAIN ON FRIDAY....WITH A BREAK ON THANKSGIVING.
HAVE ADDED CHC POPS FOR THE COASTAL PLAIN WED AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT...WITH P-TYPE UNCERTAIN ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST...BUT LKLY
SNOW A BIT FURTHER INLAND...IF PRECIP MAKES IT THAT FAR. FRIDAY
SYSTEM LOOKS TO STAY FURTHER OFFSHORE...BUT STILL WAY TOO EARLY
FOR MUCH CONFIDENCE.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM... DECREASING WINDS TONIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EVERYWHERE BUT HIE WHERE SOME MVFR SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE EARLY MORNING.

LONG TERM...A PERIOD OF IFR OR LOWER IS EXPECTED IN RA/STRATUS
SUN NIGHT INTO MON MORNING. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS IN RA/SN AT COASTAL TERMINALS LATE WED AND WED
NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM... HAVE DROPPED THE GALE WARNING IN FAVOR OF A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY AS PEAK WINDS HAVE COME DOWN BELOW 35KTS. WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND THE SCA SHOULD BE
DONE BY 12Z. MEANWHILE THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE HIGH
WILL INCREASE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND MORE HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED.

LONG TERM...SCA IS LKLY SUN NIGHT INTO MON...WITH POTENTIAL FOR
LOW END GALES ON MON. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS TUE AND SCA
WILL PROB IN NW FLOW TUE INTO TUE NIGHT.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM UPDATE...EKSTER
SHORT TERM...CURTIS
LONG TERM...CEMPA
AVIATION...CEMPA/CURTIS
MARINE...CEMPA/CURTIS




000
FXUS61 KGYX 220348
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1048 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY MORNING. WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES WEST ACROSS SOUTHERN
QUEBEC LATE SAT AND SAT NIGHT...AND COULD SET OFF A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS. WARMER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM
ON SUNDAY. A LARGE LOW PRESSURE AREAS MOVES NORTHEAST OUT OF THE
GREAT LAKES AND THROUGH THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY SUN NIGHT AND
MONDAY...BRINGING A PERIOD OF MAINLY RAIN TO THE REGION. A COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE AREA TUESDAY. A SERIES OF COASTAL LOWS WILL
TRACK OFFSHORE DURING THE MID TO LATE WEEK HOLIDAY PERIOD, AND
COULD BRING SOME RAIN OR SNOW TO COASTAL AREAS DURING THE THIS
TIME.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
1045 PM UPDATE...LITTLE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST. CONTINUED MOSTLY
CLEAR AND COLD TONIGHT WITH GRADUALLY DIMINISHING WINDS. CLOUDS
WILL BE A LITTLE MORE PREVALENT IN NORTHERN NH AND THE ADJACENT
WESTERN ME MOUNTAINS.

610 PM UPDATE...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE LATEST FORECAST. JUST A
FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS...WIND...AND SKY BASED ON LATEST
TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONAL DATA. OVERALL...A COLD NIGHT!

PREVIOUSLY...

COLD AIR HAS MOVED INTO THE REGION TOADY. THE MOUNTAINS SAW A FEW
SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH EVENING... BEFORE DECREASING OFF OVERNIGHT AS A SURFACE
INVERSION SETS UP. THE FEW CLOUDS IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL DISSIPATE
AT SUNSET ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURES TO DROP RAPIDLY THROUGH THE
EVENING WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS IN THE MOUNTAINS. WHILE
GUIDANCE SUGGEST TEMPS ABOVE ZERO... WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO
SEE A FEW LOCATIONS RADIATE OUT TO BELOW ZERO AND HAVE LEANED ON
THE COLDER SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY WILL SEE THE COLD AIR BEGIN TO MOVE OUT AS A HIGH BUILDS
IN TO OUR SOUTH. THIS WILL TURN FLOW OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST BY
MIDDAY... ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO INCREASE TO THE MID 30S. WITH
THE WARMER AIR COMES SOME MOISTURE ... RESULTING IN PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES BY MID AFTERNOON. A VERY WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL PASS BY
SATURDAY NIGHT AND WILL ALLOW FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS...WHICH MAY
RESULT IN POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN IN COLDER VALLEYS OF WESTERN
NEW HAMPSHIRE. WHILE THE TEMPERATURE STRUCTURE SUPPORTS SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN, THERE IS VERY LIMITED MOISTURE SO SIGNIFICANT
ICING IS NOT A THREAT. OVERALL EXPECT A WINTER MIX IN NEW
HAMPSHIRE AND MAINE MOUNTAINS BEFORE SUNDAY WHEN TEMPERATURES WARM
WELL BEYOND THE FREEZING POINT RESULTING IN A SWITCH TO RAIN
SHOWERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE WEAKLY AMPLIFIED 500MB EARLY IN THE LONG RANGE EVENTUALLY
BECOMES SOMEWHAT MORE AMPLIFIED THROUGH THE WEEK...BUT THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT BLOCKING SHIFTS FROM THE PACIFIC TO THE ERN ATLANTIC
AND EUROPE. THIS WILL LEAD TO A MORE UNSTABLE PATTERN WITH
SMALLER...BUT MORE FREQUENT WAVES ALOFT...AND WILL SHIFT THE
COLDEST AIR BACK OVER NOAM BACK POLEWARD. THEREFORE EXPECT THE
HOLIDAY WEEK TO BE WARMER OVERALL...BUT CHANGEABLE.

SUNDAY WE WILL SEE WINDS SHIFT TO SW WITH P/SUNNY SKIES AND
DAYTIME HIGHS ABV NORMAL...GENERALLY IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50. THE
NEXT CHC OF PRECIP ARRIVES SUN NIGHT AS 500MB TROUGH DEEPENS OVER
THE MID SECTION OF THE CONUS SUN NIGHT AND LIFTS NE MON-TUE. THIS
WILL ENHANCE DEP LYR SW FLOW...AND WILL BRING S A BOUT OF WAA
PRECIP TO THE AREA LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON...ESPECIALLY IN THE
MORNING. TEMPS SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH THAT MOST PLACES WILL SEE
JUST RAIN...BUT...LATE SUN NIGHT INTO EARLY MON MORNING COULD SEE
SOME AREAS OF PL/FZRA...MAINLY IN THE SHELTERED MTN VLYS. BY MON
MORNING...EVERYWHERE IS EXPECTED TO GO TO RAIN. ITS LKLY THAT
SKIES REMAIN M/CDY AS WARM SECTOR STAYS ALOFT WITH MARINE LYR IN
PLACE NEAR THE SFC...BUT STILL THIS WILL PUSH TEMPS INTO 50S IN
MANY SPOTS. ANY SUBSTANTIAL BREAKS OF SUN COULD PUSH TEMPS
SOMEWHAT HIGHER.

THE COLD FRONT DOESN`T REALLY CROSS THE REGION UNTIL LATE MON
NIGHT OR TUE...SO SHOULD BE MILD MON NIGHT WITH A CHC OF SHOWERS.
THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH BY TUE EVENING...BUT WILL STILL BE ON THE
WARMER SIDE TUE WITH HIGHS IN THE OW 40S TO LOW 50S.

SEVERAL WAVES OF ENERGY FEED INTO THE 500MB TROUGH OVER CENTRAL
NOAM WED-FRI...WHICH WILL HOLD IT IN PLACE TO OUR WEST. AS THIS
WAVES ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND HEAD NE...THEY WILL
PRODUCE SEVERAL COASTAL LOWS THAT WILL TRACK OFFSHORE. 12Z MODELS
SUGGEST GLANCING BLOWS AND POSSIBLE LIGHT PRECIP FOR OUR COASTAL
AREAS LATE WED AGAIN ON FRIDAY....WITH A BREAK ON THANKSGIVING.
HAVE ADDED CHC POPS FOR THE COASTAL PLAIN WED AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT...WITH P-TYPE UNCERTAIN ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST...BUT LKLY
SNOW A BIT FURTHER INLAND...IF PRECIP MAKES IT THAT FAR. FRIDAY
SYSTEM LOOKS TO STAY FURTHER OFFSHORE...BUT STILL WAY TOO EARLY
FOR MUCH CONFIDENCE.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM... DECREASING WINDS TONIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EVERYWHERE BUT HIE WHERE SOME MVFR SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE EARLY MORNING.

LONG TERM...A PERIOD OF IFR OR LOWER IS EXPECTED IN RA/STRATUS
SUN NIGHT INTO MON MORNING. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS IN RA/SN AT COASTAL TERMINALS LATE WED AND WED
NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM... HAVE DROPPED THE GALE WARNING IN FAVOR OF A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY AS PEAK WINDS HAVE COME DOWN BELOW 35KTS. WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND THE SCA SHOULD BE
DONE BY 12Z. MEANWHILE THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE HIGH
WILL INCREASE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND MORE HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED.

LONG TERM...SCA IS LKLY SUN NIGHT INTO MON...WITH POTENTIAL FOR
LOW END GALES ON MON. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS TUE AND SCA
WILL PROB IN NW FLOW TUE INTO TUE NIGHT.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM UPDATE...EKSTER
SHORT TERM...CURTIS
LONG TERM...CEMPA
AVIATION...CEMPA/CURTIS
MARINE...CEMPA/CURTIS



000
FXUS61 KGYX 220348
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1048 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY MORNING. WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES WEST ACROSS SOUTHERN
QUEBEC LATE SAT AND SAT NIGHT...AND COULD SET OFF A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS. WARMER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM
ON SUNDAY. A LARGE LOW PRESSURE AREAS MOVES NORTHEAST OUT OF THE
GREAT LAKES AND THROUGH THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY SUN NIGHT AND
MONDAY...BRINGING A PERIOD OF MAINLY RAIN TO THE REGION. A COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE AREA TUESDAY. A SERIES OF COASTAL LOWS WILL
TRACK OFFSHORE DURING THE MID TO LATE WEEK HOLIDAY PERIOD, AND
COULD BRING SOME RAIN OR SNOW TO COASTAL AREAS DURING THE THIS
TIME.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
1045 PM UPDATE...LITTLE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST. CONTINUED MOSTLY
CLEAR AND COLD TONIGHT WITH GRADUALLY DIMINISHING WINDS. CLOUDS
WILL BE A LITTLE MORE PREVALENT IN NORTHERN NH AND THE ADJACENT
WESTERN ME MOUNTAINS.

610 PM UPDATE...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE LATEST FORECAST. JUST A
FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS...WIND...AND SKY BASED ON LATEST
TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONAL DATA. OVERALL...A COLD NIGHT!

PREVIOUSLY...

COLD AIR HAS MOVED INTO THE REGION TOADY. THE MOUNTAINS SAW A FEW
SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH EVENING... BEFORE DECREASING OFF OVERNIGHT AS A SURFACE
INVERSION SETS UP. THE FEW CLOUDS IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL DISSIPATE
AT SUNSET ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURES TO DROP RAPIDLY THROUGH THE
EVENING WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS IN THE MOUNTAINS. WHILE
GUIDANCE SUGGEST TEMPS ABOVE ZERO... WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO
SEE A FEW LOCATIONS RADIATE OUT TO BELOW ZERO AND HAVE LEANED ON
THE COLDER SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY WILL SEE THE COLD AIR BEGIN TO MOVE OUT AS A HIGH BUILDS
IN TO OUR SOUTH. THIS WILL TURN FLOW OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST BY
MIDDAY... ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO INCREASE TO THE MID 30S. WITH
THE WARMER AIR COMES SOME MOISTURE ... RESULTING IN PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES BY MID AFTERNOON. A VERY WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL PASS BY
SATURDAY NIGHT AND WILL ALLOW FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS...WHICH MAY
RESULT IN POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN IN COLDER VALLEYS OF WESTERN
NEW HAMPSHIRE. WHILE THE TEMPERATURE STRUCTURE SUPPORTS SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN, THERE IS VERY LIMITED MOISTURE SO SIGNIFICANT
ICING IS NOT A THREAT. OVERALL EXPECT A WINTER MIX IN NEW
HAMPSHIRE AND MAINE MOUNTAINS BEFORE SUNDAY WHEN TEMPERATURES WARM
WELL BEYOND THE FREEZING POINT RESULTING IN A SWITCH TO RAIN
SHOWERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE WEAKLY AMPLIFIED 500MB EARLY IN THE LONG RANGE EVENTUALLY
BECOMES SOMEWHAT MORE AMPLIFIED THROUGH THE WEEK...BUT THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT BLOCKING SHIFTS FROM THE PACIFIC TO THE ERN ATLANTIC
AND EUROPE. THIS WILL LEAD TO A MORE UNSTABLE PATTERN WITH
SMALLER...BUT MORE FREQUENT WAVES ALOFT...AND WILL SHIFT THE
COLDEST AIR BACK OVER NOAM BACK POLEWARD. THEREFORE EXPECT THE
HOLIDAY WEEK TO BE WARMER OVERALL...BUT CHANGEABLE.

SUNDAY WE WILL SEE WINDS SHIFT TO SW WITH P/SUNNY SKIES AND
DAYTIME HIGHS ABV NORMAL...GENERALLY IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50. THE
NEXT CHC OF PRECIP ARRIVES SUN NIGHT AS 500MB TROUGH DEEPENS OVER
THE MID SECTION OF THE CONUS SUN NIGHT AND LIFTS NE MON-TUE. THIS
WILL ENHANCE DEP LYR SW FLOW...AND WILL BRING S A BOUT OF WAA
PRECIP TO THE AREA LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON...ESPECIALLY IN THE
MORNING. TEMPS SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH THAT MOST PLACES WILL SEE
JUST RAIN...BUT...LATE SUN NIGHT INTO EARLY MON MORNING COULD SEE
SOME AREAS OF PL/FZRA...MAINLY IN THE SHELTERED MTN VLYS. BY MON
MORNING...EVERYWHERE IS EXPECTED TO GO TO RAIN. ITS LKLY THAT
SKIES REMAIN M/CDY AS WARM SECTOR STAYS ALOFT WITH MARINE LYR IN
PLACE NEAR THE SFC...BUT STILL THIS WILL PUSH TEMPS INTO 50S IN
MANY SPOTS. ANY SUBSTANTIAL BREAKS OF SUN COULD PUSH TEMPS
SOMEWHAT HIGHER.

THE COLD FRONT DOESN`T REALLY CROSS THE REGION UNTIL LATE MON
NIGHT OR TUE...SO SHOULD BE MILD MON NIGHT WITH A CHC OF SHOWERS.
THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH BY TUE EVENING...BUT WILL STILL BE ON THE
WARMER SIDE TUE WITH HIGHS IN THE OW 40S TO LOW 50S.

SEVERAL WAVES OF ENERGY FEED INTO THE 500MB TROUGH OVER CENTRAL
NOAM WED-FRI...WHICH WILL HOLD IT IN PLACE TO OUR WEST. AS THIS
WAVES ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND HEAD NE...THEY WILL
PRODUCE SEVERAL COASTAL LOWS THAT WILL TRACK OFFSHORE. 12Z MODELS
SUGGEST GLANCING BLOWS AND POSSIBLE LIGHT PRECIP FOR OUR COASTAL
AREAS LATE WED AGAIN ON FRIDAY....WITH A BREAK ON THANKSGIVING.
HAVE ADDED CHC POPS FOR THE COASTAL PLAIN WED AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT...WITH P-TYPE UNCERTAIN ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST...BUT LKLY
SNOW A BIT FURTHER INLAND...IF PRECIP MAKES IT THAT FAR. FRIDAY
SYSTEM LOOKS TO STAY FURTHER OFFSHORE...BUT STILL WAY TOO EARLY
FOR MUCH CONFIDENCE.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM... DECREASING WINDS TONIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EVERYWHERE BUT HIE WHERE SOME MVFR SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE EARLY MORNING.

LONG TERM...A PERIOD OF IFR OR LOWER IS EXPECTED IN RA/STRATUS
SUN NIGHT INTO MON MORNING. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS IN RA/SN AT COASTAL TERMINALS LATE WED AND WED
NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM... HAVE DROPPED THE GALE WARNING IN FAVOR OF A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY AS PEAK WINDS HAVE COME DOWN BELOW 35KTS. WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND THE SCA SHOULD BE
DONE BY 12Z. MEANWHILE THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE HIGH
WILL INCREASE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND MORE HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED.

LONG TERM...SCA IS LKLY SUN NIGHT INTO MON...WITH POTENTIAL FOR
LOW END GALES ON MON. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS TUE AND SCA
WILL PROB IN NW FLOW TUE INTO TUE NIGHT.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM UPDATE...EKSTER
SHORT TERM...CURTIS
LONG TERM...CEMPA
AVIATION...CEMPA/CURTIS
MARINE...CEMPA/CURTIS




000
FXUS61 KCAR 220206
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
906 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AND MOVE EAST ON SUNDAY. MEANWHILE, A DISTURBANCE WILL
PASS ACROSS NORTHERN FRINGES OF MAINE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS WEST OF THE REGION ON
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DECREASED CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE REGION EARLY TONIGHT. HIGH CLOUDS
ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TOWARD MORNING. OTHERWISE, NO MAJOR
CHANGES THIS HOUR.

A SURFACE TROF WILL EXIT INTO NEW BRUNSWICK BY EARLY EVENING.
HIGH PRES MOVING ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT WILL
RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE COMING TO AN
END W/CLEARING EXPECTED. THIS SHOWS UP ON THE 12Z NAM AND GFS
SOUNDINGS W/THE 850-700MB LAYER DRYING OUT. THEREFORE, DECIDED TO
DROP POPS BACK BELOW 15% BY THE EVENING. WINDS WILL BE DROPPING
OFF AS WELL W/THE RIDGE BUILDING IN. THE COMBINATION OF THE CLEAR
SKIES/LIGHT WINDS AND COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE WILL LEAD TO SOME COLD
TEMPERATURES FOR LATE NOVEMBER. WE ARE TALKING SINGLE NUMBERS FOR
THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF MAINE W/READINGS AOB BELOW 0F FOR AREAS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN BORDER AND BACK TO NW. 10-15 DEGREES SHOULD
DO FOR CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE NEAR CAPE HATTERAS LATE SATURDAY WILL MOVE TO
THE EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL TIGHTEN
SOUTHWESTERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THE DEPARTING HIGH
RESULTING IN OVER-RUNNING PRECIPITATION BREAKING OUT FROM THE
GREAT LAKES INTO WESTERN MAINE. EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO BEGIN AS
SNOW SUNDAY THEN QUICKLY TRANSITION TO MIXED AS STRONG WARM
ADVECTION TAKES PALCE ALOFT AS PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO
TIGHTEN BETWEEN DEEP LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC. WILL USE THE MOSG25 FOR
WINDS SINCE IT CAN BETTER HANDLE DECOUPLING WINDS IN ENTRENCHED
COLD AIR MASS AT SURFACE. FOR TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT WILL USE
NAM12 DURING WARM ADVECTION ALOFT THEN TRANSITION TO RAW BLEND TO
BETTER HANDLE TRANSITION TO WARM AIR MASS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
INTENSE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF JAMES BAY MONDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL
PIVOT AROUND THE SOUTH PORTION OF THE LOW AND MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION EARLY TUESDAY. THE ECMWF IS SIMILAR WITH THIS SYSTEM AND
SLIGHTLY FURTHER TO THE EAST. ALL 12 GFS EMSEMBLE PERTURBATIONS
ALSO SIMILAR WITH TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM ALTHOUGH SOME VARY IN BOTH
INTENSITY AND TIMIMG. SO EXPECT TRANSITION TO LIQUID PRECIPITATION
TO TAKE PLACE QUICKLY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH DYNAMIC
SYSTEM PASSING TO THE WEST. FOR TUESDAY EXPECT DRIER AIR MASS WITH
COLD ADVECTION CONTINUING BEHIND DEPARTING LOW. FOR WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY BOTH OPERATIONAL GFS....OPERATIONAL ECMWF AND MOST GFS
ENSEMBLE PERTURBATIONS INDICATE DEVELOPMENT OVER ATLANTIC ALONG
EAST COAST. GFS EMSEMBLE DIVIDED ON INTENSITY AND TRACK OF THIS
SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR RIGHT INTO SATURDAY W/THE EXCEPTION FOR KFVE AS
MVFR IS POSSIBLE W/THE LIGHT SNOW. EVEN KCAR RUNS THE RISK OF
SEEING A PERIOD OF MVFR.

SHORT TERM: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY THEN IFR CONDITIONS
MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY. CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR TUESDAY.
VFR CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: EXTENDED THE SCA THROUGH 12 PM SATURDAY AS WINDS GUSTS
TO 25 KTS STILL POSSIBLE. A LLVL JET OF AROUND 40 KT IS FORECAST
TO SET UP OVER THE WATERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF THIS WIND TO MIX DOWN TO
THE SURFACE. ATTM, BROUGHT WINDS GUSTS NEAR 35 KTS BY 00Z. LATER
CREWS CAN ASSESS THE NEED TO UPGRADE TO GALES IF NEEDED. WAVE
HEIGHTS ATTM WERE RUNNING 4-5 FT AND ARE FORECAST TO DROP BACK
INTO SATURDAY W/THE OFFSHORE WIND.

SHORT TERM: FOR SUSTAINED WINDS WILL USE THE NAM12 SUNDAY AND
MONDAY THEN TRANSITION TO THE SUPER BLEND WINDS. FOR WAVES: EXPECT
SOTHERLY WIND WAVE TO BECOME THE PRIMARY WAVE SYSTEM SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY AS HIGH CENTER MOVES OFF THE COAST INTO THE
ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERLY FETCH INCREASES FROM THE GULF OF MAINE
SOUTHWARD. EXPECT SOUTHERLY WAVE SYSTEM TO PERSIST INTO EARLY
TUESDAY THEN BE BROKEN UP BY OFF-SHORE FLOW AS A COLD FRONT PASSES
TUESDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CB/HEWITT/MCB
SHORT TERM...MIGNONE
LONG TERM...MIGNONE
AVIATION...CB/HEWITT/MIGNONE
MARINE...CB/HEWITT/MIGNONE



000
FXUS61 KCAR 220206
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
906 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AND MOVE EAST ON SUNDAY. MEANWHILE, A DISTURBANCE WILL
PASS ACROSS NORTHERN FRINGES OF MAINE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS WEST OF THE REGION ON
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DECREASED CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE REGION EARLY TONIGHT. HIGH CLOUDS
ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TOWARD MORNING. OTHERWISE, NO MAJOR
CHANGES THIS HOUR.

A SURFACE TROF WILL EXIT INTO NEW BRUNSWICK BY EARLY EVENING.
HIGH PRES MOVING ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT WILL
RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE COMING TO AN
END W/CLEARING EXPECTED. THIS SHOWS UP ON THE 12Z NAM AND GFS
SOUNDINGS W/THE 850-700MB LAYER DRYING OUT. THEREFORE, DECIDED TO
DROP POPS BACK BELOW 15% BY THE EVENING. WINDS WILL BE DROPPING
OFF AS WELL W/THE RIDGE BUILDING IN. THE COMBINATION OF THE CLEAR
SKIES/LIGHT WINDS AND COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE WILL LEAD TO SOME COLD
TEMPERATURES FOR LATE NOVEMBER. WE ARE TALKING SINGLE NUMBERS FOR
THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF MAINE W/READINGS AOB BELOW 0F FOR AREAS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN BORDER AND BACK TO NW. 10-15 DEGREES SHOULD
DO FOR CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE NEAR CAPE HATTERAS LATE SATURDAY WILL MOVE TO
THE EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL TIGHTEN
SOUTHWESTERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THE DEPARTING HIGH
RESULTING IN OVER-RUNNING PRECIPITATION BREAKING OUT FROM THE
GREAT LAKES INTO WESTERN MAINE. EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO BEGIN AS
SNOW SUNDAY THEN QUICKLY TRANSITION TO MIXED AS STRONG WARM
ADVECTION TAKES PALCE ALOFT AS PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO
TIGHTEN BETWEEN DEEP LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC. WILL USE THE MOSG25 FOR
WINDS SINCE IT CAN BETTER HANDLE DECOUPLING WINDS IN ENTRENCHED
COLD AIR MASS AT SURFACE. FOR TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT WILL USE
NAM12 DURING WARM ADVECTION ALOFT THEN TRANSITION TO RAW BLEND TO
BETTER HANDLE TRANSITION TO WARM AIR MASS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
INTENSE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF JAMES BAY MONDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL
PIVOT AROUND THE SOUTH PORTION OF THE LOW AND MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION EARLY TUESDAY. THE ECMWF IS SIMILAR WITH THIS SYSTEM AND
SLIGHTLY FURTHER TO THE EAST. ALL 12 GFS EMSEMBLE PERTURBATIONS
ALSO SIMILAR WITH TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM ALTHOUGH SOME VARY IN BOTH
INTENSITY AND TIMIMG. SO EXPECT TRANSITION TO LIQUID PRECIPITATION
TO TAKE PLACE QUICKLY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH DYNAMIC
SYSTEM PASSING TO THE WEST. FOR TUESDAY EXPECT DRIER AIR MASS WITH
COLD ADVECTION CONTINUING BEHIND DEPARTING LOW. FOR WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY BOTH OPERATIONAL GFS....OPERATIONAL ECMWF AND MOST GFS
ENSEMBLE PERTURBATIONS INDICATE DEVELOPMENT OVER ATLANTIC ALONG
EAST COAST. GFS EMSEMBLE DIVIDED ON INTENSITY AND TRACK OF THIS
SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR RIGHT INTO SATURDAY W/THE EXCEPTION FOR KFVE AS
MVFR IS POSSIBLE W/THE LIGHT SNOW. EVEN KCAR RUNS THE RISK OF
SEEING A PERIOD OF MVFR.

SHORT TERM: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY THEN IFR CONDITIONS
MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY. CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR TUESDAY.
VFR CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: EXTENDED THE SCA THROUGH 12 PM SATURDAY AS WINDS GUSTS
TO 25 KTS STILL POSSIBLE. A LLVL JET OF AROUND 40 KT IS FORECAST
TO SET UP OVER THE WATERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF THIS WIND TO MIX DOWN TO
THE SURFACE. ATTM, BROUGHT WINDS GUSTS NEAR 35 KTS BY 00Z. LATER
CREWS CAN ASSESS THE NEED TO UPGRADE TO GALES IF NEEDED. WAVE
HEIGHTS ATTM WERE RUNNING 4-5 FT AND ARE FORECAST TO DROP BACK
INTO SATURDAY W/THE OFFSHORE WIND.

SHORT TERM: FOR SUSTAINED WINDS WILL USE THE NAM12 SUNDAY AND
MONDAY THEN TRANSITION TO THE SUPER BLEND WINDS. FOR WAVES: EXPECT
SOTHERLY WIND WAVE TO BECOME THE PRIMARY WAVE SYSTEM SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY AS HIGH CENTER MOVES OFF THE COAST INTO THE
ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERLY FETCH INCREASES FROM THE GULF OF MAINE
SOUTHWARD. EXPECT SOUTHERLY WAVE SYSTEM TO PERSIST INTO EARLY
TUESDAY THEN BE BROKEN UP BY OFF-SHORE FLOW AS A COLD FRONT PASSES
TUESDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CB/HEWITT/MCB
SHORT TERM...MIGNONE
LONG TERM...MIGNONE
AVIATION...CB/HEWITT/MIGNONE
MARINE...CB/HEWITT/MIGNONE




000
FXUS61 KGYX 212309
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
610 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY MORNING. WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES WEST ACROSS SOUTHERN
QUEBEC LATE SAT AND SAT NIGHT...AND COULD SET OFF A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS. WARMER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM
ON SUNDAY. A LARGE LOW PRESSURE AREAS MOVES NORTHEAST OUT OF THE
GREAT LAKES AND THROUGH THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY SUN NIGHT AND
MONDAY...BRINGING A PERIOD OF MAINLY RAIN TO THE REGION. A COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE AREA TUESDAY. A SERIES OF COASTAL LOWS WILL
TRACK OFFSHORE DURING THE MID TO LATE WEEK HOLIDAY PERIOD, AND
COULD BRING SOME RAIN OR SNOW TO COASTAL AREAS DURING THE THIS
TIME.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
610 PM UPDATE...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE LATEST FORECAST. JUST A
FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS...WIND...AND SKY BASED ON LATEST
TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONAL DATA. OVERALL...A COLD NIGHT!

PREVIOUSLY...

COLD AIR HAS MOVED INTO THE REGION TOADY. THE MOUNTAINS SAW A FEW
SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH EVENING... BEFORE DECREASING OFF OVERNIGHT AS A SURFACE
INVERSION SETS UP. THE FEW CLOUDS IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL DISSIPATE
AT SUNSET ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURES TO DROP RAPIDLY THROUGH THE
EVENING WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS IN THE MOUNTAINS. WHILE
GUIDANCE SUGGEST TEMPS ABOVE ZERO... WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO
SEE A FEW LOCATIONS RADIATE OUT TO BELOW ZERO AND HAVE LEANED ON
THE COLDER SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
 SATURDAY WILL SEE THE COLD AIR BEGIN TO MOVE OUT AS A HIGH BUILDS
IN TO OUR SOUTH. THIS WILL TURN FLOW OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST BY
MIDDAY... ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO INCREASE TO THE MID 30S. WITH
THE WARMER AIR COMES SOME MOISTURE ... RESULTING IN PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES BY MID AFTERNOON. A VERY WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL PASS BY
SATURDAY NIGHT AND WILL ALLOW FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS...WHICH MAY
RESULT IN POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN IN COLDER VALLEYS OF WESTERN
NEW HAMPSHIRE. WHILE THE TEMPERATURE STRUCTURE SUPPORTS SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN, THERE IS VERY LIMITED MOISTURE SO SIGNIFICANT
ICING IS NOT A THREAT. OVERALL EXPECT A WINTER MIX IN NEW
HAMPSHIRE AND MAINE MOUNTAINS BEFORE SUNDAY WHEN TEMPERATURES WARM
WELL BEYOND THE FREEZING POINT RESULTING IN A SWITCH TO RAIN
SHOWERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE WEAKLY AMPLIFIED 500MB EARLY IN THE LONG RANGE EVENTUALLY
BECOMES SOMEWHAT MORE AMPLIFIED THROUGH THE WEEK...BUT THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT BLOCKING SHIFTS FROM THE PACIFIC TO THE ERN ATLANTIC
AND EUROPE. THIS WILL LEAD TO A MORE UNSTABLE PATTERN WITH
SMALLER...BUT MORE FREQUENT WAVES ALOFT...AND WILL SHIFT THE
COLDEST AIR BACK OVER NOAM BACK POLEWARD. THEREFORE EXPECT THE
HOLIDAY WEEK TO BE WARMER OVERALL...BUT CHANGEABLE.

SUNDAY WE WILL SEE WINDS SHIFT TO SW WITH P/SUNNY SKIES AND
DAYTIME HIGHS ABV NORMAL...GENERALLY IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50. THE
NEXT CHC OF PRECIP ARRIVES SUN NIGHT AS 500MB TROUGH DEEPENS OVER
THE MID SECTION OF THE CONUS SUN NIGHT AND LIFTS NE MON-TUE. THIS
WILL ENHANCE DEP LYR SW FLOW...AND WILL BRING S A BOUT OF WAA
PRECIP TO THE AREA LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON...ESPECIALLY IN THE
MORNING. TEMPS SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH THAT MOST PLACES WILL SEE
JUST RAIN...BUT...LATE SUN NIGHT INTO EARLY MON MORNING COULD SEE
SOME AREAS OF PL/FZRA...MAINLY IN THE SHELTERED MTN VLYS. BY MON
MORNING...EVERYWHERE IS EXPECTED TO GO TO RAIN. ITS LKLY THAT
SKIES REMAIN M/CDY AS WARM SECTOR STAYS ALOFT WITH MARINE LYR IN
PLACE NEAR THE SFC...BUT STILL THIS WILL PUSH TEMPS INTO 50S IN
MANY SPOTS. ANY SUBSTANTIAL BREAKS OF SUN COULD PUSH TEMPS
SOMEWHAT HIGHER.

THE COLD FRONT DOESN`T REALLY CROSS THE REGION UNTIL LATE MON
NIGHT OR TUE...SO SHOULD BE MILD MON NIGHT WITH A CHC OF SHOWERS.
THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH BY TUE EVENING...BUT WILL STILL BE ON THE
WARMER SIDE TUE WITH HIGHS IN THE OW 40S TO LOW 50S.

SEVERAL WAVES OF ENERGY FEED INTO THE 500MB TROUGH OVER CENTRAL
NOAM WED-FRI...WHICH WILL HOLD IT IN PLACE TO OUR WEST. AS THIS
WAVES ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND HEAD NE...THEY WILL
PRODUCE SEVERAL COASTAL LOWS THAT WILL TRACK OFFSHORE. 12Z MODELS
SUGGEST GLANCING BLOWS AND POSSIBLE LIGHT PRECIP FOR OUR COASTAL
AREAS LATE WED AGAIN ON FRIDAY....WITH A BREAK ON THANKSGIVING.
HAVE ADDED CHC POPS FOR THE COASTAL PLAIN WED AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT...WITH P-TYPE UNCERTAIN ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST...BUT LKLY
SNOW A BIT FURTHER INLAND...IF PRECIP MAKES IT THAT FAR. FRIDAY
SYSTEM LOOKS TO STAY FURTHER OFFSHORE...BUT STILL WAY TOO EARLY
FOR MUCH CONFIDENCE.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM... DECREASING WINDS TONIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EVERYWHERE BUT HIE WHERE SOME MVFR SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE EARLY MORNING.

LONG TERM...A PERIOD OF IFR OR LOWER IS EXPECTED IN RA/STRATUS
SUN NIGHT INTO MON MORNING. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS IN RA/SN AT COASTAL TERMINALS LATE WED AND WED
NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM... HAVE DROPPED THE GALE WARNING IN FAVOR OF A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY AS PEAK WINDS HAVE COME DOWN BELOW 35KTS. WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND THE SCA SHOULD BE
DONE BY 12Z. MEANWHILE THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE HIGH
WILL INCREASE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND MORE HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED.

LONG TERM...SCA IS LKLY SUN NIGHT INTO MON...WITH POTENTIAL FOR
LOW END GALES ON MON. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS TUE AND SCA
WILL PROB IN NW FLOW TUE INTO TUE NIGHT.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CEMPA/CURTIS
NEAR TERM UPDATE...MLE
SHORT TERM...CURTIS
LONG TERM...CEMPA
AVIATION...CEMPA/CURTIS
MARINE...CEMPA/CURTIS



000
FXUS61 KGYX 212309
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
610 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY MORNING. WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES WEST ACROSS SOUTHERN
QUEBEC LATE SAT AND SAT NIGHT...AND COULD SET OFF A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS. WARMER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM
ON SUNDAY. A LARGE LOW PRESSURE AREAS MOVES NORTHEAST OUT OF THE
GREAT LAKES AND THROUGH THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY SUN NIGHT AND
MONDAY...BRINGING A PERIOD OF MAINLY RAIN TO THE REGION. A COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE AREA TUESDAY. A SERIES OF COASTAL LOWS WILL
TRACK OFFSHORE DURING THE MID TO LATE WEEK HOLIDAY PERIOD, AND
COULD BRING SOME RAIN OR SNOW TO COASTAL AREAS DURING THE THIS
TIME.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
610 PM UPDATE...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE LATEST FORECAST. JUST A
FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS...WIND...AND SKY BASED ON LATEST
TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONAL DATA. OVERALL...A COLD NIGHT!

PREVIOUSLY...

COLD AIR HAS MOVED INTO THE REGION TOADY. THE MOUNTAINS SAW A FEW
SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH EVENING... BEFORE DECREASING OFF OVERNIGHT AS A SURFACE
INVERSION SETS UP. THE FEW CLOUDS IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL DISSIPATE
AT SUNSET ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURES TO DROP RAPIDLY THROUGH THE
EVENING WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS IN THE MOUNTAINS. WHILE
GUIDANCE SUGGEST TEMPS ABOVE ZERO... WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO
SEE A FEW LOCATIONS RADIATE OUT TO BELOW ZERO AND HAVE LEANED ON
THE COLDER SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
 SATURDAY WILL SEE THE COLD AIR BEGIN TO MOVE OUT AS A HIGH BUILDS
IN TO OUR SOUTH. THIS WILL TURN FLOW OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST BY
MIDDAY... ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO INCREASE TO THE MID 30S. WITH
THE WARMER AIR COMES SOME MOISTURE ... RESULTING IN PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES BY MID AFTERNOON. A VERY WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL PASS BY
SATURDAY NIGHT AND WILL ALLOW FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS...WHICH MAY
RESULT IN POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN IN COLDER VALLEYS OF WESTERN
NEW HAMPSHIRE. WHILE THE TEMPERATURE STRUCTURE SUPPORTS SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN, THERE IS VERY LIMITED MOISTURE SO SIGNIFICANT
ICING IS NOT A THREAT. OVERALL EXPECT A WINTER MIX IN NEW
HAMPSHIRE AND MAINE MOUNTAINS BEFORE SUNDAY WHEN TEMPERATURES WARM
WELL BEYOND THE FREEZING POINT RESULTING IN A SWITCH TO RAIN
SHOWERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE WEAKLY AMPLIFIED 500MB EARLY IN THE LONG RANGE EVENTUALLY
BECOMES SOMEWHAT MORE AMPLIFIED THROUGH THE WEEK...BUT THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT BLOCKING SHIFTS FROM THE PACIFIC TO THE ERN ATLANTIC
AND EUROPE. THIS WILL LEAD TO A MORE UNSTABLE PATTERN WITH
SMALLER...BUT MORE FREQUENT WAVES ALOFT...AND WILL SHIFT THE
COLDEST AIR BACK OVER NOAM BACK POLEWARD. THEREFORE EXPECT THE
HOLIDAY WEEK TO BE WARMER OVERALL...BUT CHANGEABLE.

SUNDAY WE WILL SEE WINDS SHIFT TO SW WITH P/SUNNY SKIES AND
DAYTIME HIGHS ABV NORMAL...GENERALLY IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50. THE
NEXT CHC OF PRECIP ARRIVES SUN NIGHT AS 500MB TROUGH DEEPENS OVER
THE MID SECTION OF THE CONUS SUN NIGHT AND LIFTS NE MON-TUE. THIS
WILL ENHANCE DEP LYR SW FLOW...AND WILL BRING S A BOUT OF WAA
PRECIP TO THE AREA LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON...ESPECIALLY IN THE
MORNING. TEMPS SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH THAT MOST PLACES WILL SEE
JUST RAIN...BUT...LATE SUN NIGHT INTO EARLY MON MORNING COULD SEE
SOME AREAS OF PL/FZRA...MAINLY IN THE SHELTERED MTN VLYS. BY MON
MORNING...EVERYWHERE IS EXPECTED TO GO TO RAIN. ITS LKLY THAT
SKIES REMAIN M/CDY AS WARM SECTOR STAYS ALOFT WITH MARINE LYR IN
PLACE NEAR THE SFC...BUT STILL THIS WILL PUSH TEMPS INTO 50S IN
MANY SPOTS. ANY SUBSTANTIAL BREAKS OF SUN COULD PUSH TEMPS
SOMEWHAT HIGHER.

THE COLD FRONT DOESN`T REALLY CROSS THE REGION UNTIL LATE MON
NIGHT OR TUE...SO SHOULD BE MILD MON NIGHT WITH A CHC OF SHOWERS.
THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH BY TUE EVENING...BUT WILL STILL BE ON THE
WARMER SIDE TUE WITH HIGHS IN THE OW 40S TO LOW 50S.

SEVERAL WAVES OF ENERGY FEED INTO THE 500MB TROUGH OVER CENTRAL
NOAM WED-FRI...WHICH WILL HOLD IT IN PLACE TO OUR WEST. AS THIS
WAVES ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND HEAD NE...THEY WILL
PRODUCE SEVERAL COASTAL LOWS THAT WILL TRACK OFFSHORE. 12Z MODELS
SUGGEST GLANCING BLOWS AND POSSIBLE LIGHT PRECIP FOR OUR COASTAL
AREAS LATE WED AGAIN ON FRIDAY....WITH A BREAK ON THANKSGIVING.
HAVE ADDED CHC POPS FOR THE COASTAL PLAIN WED AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT...WITH P-TYPE UNCERTAIN ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST...BUT LKLY
SNOW A BIT FURTHER INLAND...IF PRECIP MAKES IT THAT FAR. FRIDAY
SYSTEM LOOKS TO STAY FURTHER OFFSHORE...BUT STILL WAY TOO EARLY
FOR MUCH CONFIDENCE.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM... DECREASING WINDS TONIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EVERYWHERE BUT HIE WHERE SOME MVFR SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE EARLY MORNING.

LONG TERM...A PERIOD OF IFR OR LOWER IS EXPECTED IN RA/STRATUS
SUN NIGHT INTO MON MORNING. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS IN RA/SN AT COASTAL TERMINALS LATE WED AND WED
NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM... HAVE DROPPED THE GALE WARNING IN FAVOR OF A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY AS PEAK WINDS HAVE COME DOWN BELOW 35KTS. WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND THE SCA SHOULD BE
DONE BY 12Z. MEANWHILE THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE HIGH
WILL INCREASE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND MORE HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED.

LONG TERM...SCA IS LKLY SUN NIGHT INTO MON...WITH POTENTIAL FOR
LOW END GALES ON MON. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS TUE AND SCA
WILL PROB IN NW FLOW TUE INTO TUE NIGHT.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CEMPA/CURTIS
NEAR TERM UPDATE...MLE
SHORT TERM...CURTIS
LONG TERM...CEMPA
AVIATION...CEMPA/CURTIS
MARINE...CEMPA/CURTIS




000
FXUS61 KGYX 212036
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
336 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY MORNING. WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES WEST ACROSS SOUTHERN
QUEBEC LATE SAT AND SAT NIGHT...AND COULD SET OFF A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS. WARMER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM
ON SUNDAY. A LARGE LOW PRESSURE AREAS MOVES NORTHEAST OUT OF THE
GREAT LAKES AND THROUGH THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY SUN NIGHT AND
MONDAY...BRINGING A PERIOD OF MAINLY RAIN TO THE REGION. A COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE AREA TUESDAY. A SERIES OF COASTAL LOWS WILL
TRACK OFFSHORE DURING THE MID TO LATE WEEK HOLIDAY PERIOD, AND
COULD BRING SOME RAIN OR SNOW TO COASTAL AREAS DURING THE THIS
TIME.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
COLD AIR HAS MOVED INTO THE REGION TOADY. THE MOUNTAINS SAW A FEW
SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH EVENING... BEFORE DECREASING OFF OVERNIGHT AS A SURFACE
INVERSION SETS UP. THE FEW CLOUDS IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL DISSIPATE
AT SUNSET ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURES TO DROP RAPIDLY THROUGH THE
EVENING WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS IN THE MOUNTAINS. WHILE
GUIDANCE SUGGEST TEMPS ABOVE ZERO... WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO
SEE A FEW LOCATIONS RADIATE OUT TO BELOW ZERO AND HAVE LEANED ON
THE COLDER SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
 SATURDAY WILL SEE THE COLD AIR BEGIN TO MOVE OUT AS A HIGH BUILDS
IN TO OUR SOUTH. THIS WILL TURN FLOW OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST BY
MIDDAY... ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO INCREASE TO THE MID 30S. WITH
THE WARMER AIR COMES SOME MOISTURE ... RESULTING IN PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES BY MID AFTERNOON. A VERY WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL PASS BY
SATURDAY NIGHT AND WILL ALLOW FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS...WHICH MAY
RESULT IN POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN IN COLDER VALLEYS OF WESTERN
NEW HAMPSHIRE. WHILE THE TEMPERATURE STRUCTURE SUPPORTS SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN, THERE IS VERY LIMITED MOISTURE SO SIGNIFICANT
ICING IS NOT A THREAT. OVERALL EXPECT A WINTER MIX IN NEW
HAMPSHIRE AND MAINE MOUNTAINS BEFORE SUNDAY WHEN TEMPERATURES WARM
WELL BEYOND THE FREEZING POINT RESULTING IN A SWITCH TO RAIN
SHOWERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE WEAKLY AMPLIFIED 500MB EARLY IN THE LONG RANGE EVENTUALLY
BECOMES SOMEWHAT MORE AMPLIFIED THROUGH THE WEEK...BUT THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT BLOCKING SHIFTS FROM THE PACIFIC TO THE ERN ATLANTIC
AND EUROPE. THIS WILL LEAD TO A MORE UNSTABLE PATTERN WITH
SMALLER...BUT MORE FREQUENT WAVES ALOFT...AND WILL SHIFT THE
COLDEST AIR BACK OVER NOAM BACK POLEWARD. THEREFORE EXPECT THE
HOLIDAY WEEK TO BE WARMER OVERALL...BUT CHANGEABLE.

SUNDAY WE WILL SEE WINDS SHIFT TO SW WITH P/SUNNY SKIES AND
DAYTIME HIGHS ABV NORMAL...GENERALLY IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50. THE
NEXT CHC OF PRECIP ARRIVES SUN NIGHT AS 500MB TROUGH DEEPENS OVER
THE MID SECTION OF THE CONUS SUN NIGHT AND LIFTS NE MON-TUE. THIS
WILL ENHANCE DEP LYR SW FLOW...AND WILL BRING S A BOUT OF WAA
PRECIP TO THE AREA LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON...ESPECIALLY IN THE
MORNING. TEMPS SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH THAT MOST PLACES WILL SEE
JUST RAIN...BUT...LATE SUN NIGHT INTO EARLY MON MORNING COULD SEE
SOME AREAS OF PL/FZRA...MAINLY IN THE SHELTERED MTN VLYS. BY MON
MORNING...EVERYWHERE IS EXPECTED TO GO TO RAIN. ITS LKLY THAT
SKIES REMAIN M/CDY AS WARM SECTOR STAYS ALOFT WITH MARINE LYR IN
PLACE NEAR THE SFC...BUT STILL THIS WILL PUSH TEMPS INTO 50S IN
MANY SPOTS. ANY SUBSTANTIAL BREAKS OF SUN COULD PUSH TEMPS
SOMEWHAT HIGHER.

THE COLD FRONT DOESN`T REALLY CROSS THE REGION UNTIL LATE MON
NIGHT OR TUE...SO SHOULD BE MILD MON NIGHT WITH A CHC OF SHOWERS.
THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH BY TUE EVENING...BUT WILL STILL BE ON THE
WARMER SIDE TUE WITH HIGHS IN THE OW 40S TO LOW 50S.

SEVERAL WAVES OF ENERGY FEED INTO THE 500MB TROUGH OVER CENTRAL
NOAM WED-FRI...WHICH WILL HOLD IT IN PLACE TO OUR WEST. AS THIS
WAVES ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND HEAD NE...THEY WILL
PRODUCE SEVERAL COASTAL LOWS THAT WILL TRACK OFFSHORE. 12Z MODELS
SUGGEST GLANCING BLOWS AND POSSIBLE LIGHT PRECIP FOR OUR COASTAL
AREAS LATE WED AGAIN ON FRIDAY....WITH A BREAK ON THANKSGIVING.
HAVE ADDED CHC POPS FOR THE COASTAL PLAIN WED AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT...WITH P-TYPE UNCERTAIN ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST...BUT LKLY
SNOW A BIT FURTHER INLAND...IF PRECIP MAKES IT THAT FAR. FRIDAY
SYSTEM LOOKS TO STAY FURTHER OFFSHORE...BUT STILL WAY TOO EARLY
FOR MUCH CONFIDENCE.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM... DECREASING WINDS TONIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EVERYWHERE BUT HIE WHERE SOME MVFR SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE EARLY MORNING.

LONG TERM...A PERIOD OF IFR OR LOWER IS EXPECTED IN RA/STRATUS
SUN NIGHT INTO MON MORNING. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS IN RA/SN AT COASTAL TERMINALS LATE WED AND WED
NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM... HAVE DROPPED THE GALE WARNING IN FAVOR OF A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY AS PEAK WINDS HAVE COME DOWN BELOW 35KTS. WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND THE SCA SHOULD BE
DONE BY 12Z. MEANWHILE THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE HIGH
WILL INCREASE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND MORE HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED.

LONG TERM...SCA IS LKLY SUN NIGHT INTO MON...WITH POTENTIAL FOR
LOW END GALES ON MON. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS TUE AND SCA
WILL PROB IN NW FLOW TUE INTO TUE NIGHT.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CEMPA/CURTIS
NEAR TERM...CURTIS
SHORT TERM...CURTIS
LONG TERM...CEMPA
AVIATION...CEMPA/CURTIS
MARINE...CEMPA/CURTIS




000
FXUS61 KCAR 212035
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
335 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AND MOVE EAST ON SUNDAY. MEANWHILE, A DISTURBANCE WILL
PASS ACROSS NORTHERN FRINGES OF MAINE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS WEST OF THE REGION ON
MONDAY.

&&

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A SURFACE TROF WILL EXIT INTO NEW BRUNSWICK BY EARLY EVENING.
HIGH PRES MOVING ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT WILL
RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE COMING TO AN
END W/CLEARING EXPECTED. THIS SHOWS UP ON THE 12Z NAM AND GFS
SOUNDINGS W/THE 850-700MB LAYER DRYING OUT. THEREFORE, DECIDED TO
DROP POPS BACK BELOW 15% BY THE EVENING. WINDS WILL BE DROPPING
OFF AS WELL W/THE RIDGE BUILDING IN. THE COMBINATION OF THE CLEAR
SKIES/LIGHT WINDS AND COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE WILL LEAD TO SOME COLD
TEMPERATURES FOR LATE NOVEMBER. WE ARE TALKING SINGLE NUMBERS FOR
THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF MAINE W/READINGS AOB BELOW 0F FOR AREAS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN BORDER AND BACK TO NW. 10-15 DEGREES SHOULD
DO FOR CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS.

SATURDAY WILL HAVE CLOUDS MOVING IN ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN
AREAS WHILE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST WILL SEE MAINLY PARTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE IN THE FORM OF A WARM FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO LIFT ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS ON SATURDAY. THIS FEATURE
IS SUPPORTED BY A DECENT LLVL JET OF 50 KT. NAM AND GFS SOUNDINGS
SHOW DEEP MOISTURE FROM 925-700MBS. ANOTHER FEATURE TO CONSIDER IS
THE VEERING WINDS THROUGH 800MBS W/INCREASING SPEEDS. THIS IS MOST
PROMINENT ACROSS THE WESTERN AND THE CROWN. THE DECISION WAS TO GO
AHEAD AND INCREASE THE POPS AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. THIS MEANS 50-60%
ON THE POPS AND AROUND AN INCH OR SO OF SNOW. THE WX ELEMENT LOOKS
TO BE LIGHT SNOW GIVEN THE OVERRUNNING NATURE OF THE SETUP.
THEREFORE, LEANED W/LIGHT SNOW INSTEAD OF SNOW SHOWERS TO ACCOUNT
FOR THIS THINKING. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SOME BUT STILL WELL
BELOW NORMAL FOR NOVEMBER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE NEAR CAPE HATTERAS LATE SATURDAY WILL MOVE TO
THE EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL TIGHTEN
SOUTHWESTERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THE DEPARTING HIGH
RESULTING IN OVER-RUNNING PRECIPITATION BREAKING OUT FROM THE
GREAT LAKES INTO WESTERN MAINE. EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO BEGIN AS
SNOW SUNDAY THEN QUICKLY TRANSITION TO MIXED AS STRONG WARM
ADVECTION TAKES PALCE ALOFT AS PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO
TIGHTEN BETWEEN DEEP LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC. WILL USE THE MOSG25 FOR
WINDS SINCE IT CAN BETTER HANDLE DECOUPLING WINDS IN ENTRENCHED
COLD AIR MASS AT SURFACE. FOR TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT WILL USE
NAM12 DURING WARM ADVECTION ALOFT THEN TRANSITION TO RAW BLEND TO
BETTER HANDLE TRANSITION TO WARM AIR MASS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
INTENSE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF JAMES BAY MONDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL
PIVOT AROUND THE SOUTH PORTION OF THE LOW AND MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION EARLY TUESDAY. THE ECMWF IS SIMILAR WITH THIS SYSTEM AND
SLIGHTLY FURTHER TO THE EAST. ALL 12 GFS EMSEMBLE PERTURBATIONS
ALSO SIMILAR WITH TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM ALTHOUGH SOME VARY IN BOTH
INTENSITY AND TIMIMG. SO EXPECT TRANSITION TO LIQUID PRECIPITATION
TO TAKE PLACE QUICKLY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH DYNAMIC
SYSTEM PASSING TO THE WEST. FOR TUESDAY EXPECT DRIER AIR MASS WITH
COLD ADVECTION CONTINUING BEHIND DEPARTING LOW. FOR WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY BOTH OPERATIONAL GFS....OPERATIONAL ECMWF AND MOST GFS
ENSEMBLE PERTURBATIONS INDICATE DEVELOPMENT OVER ATLANTIC ALONG
EAST COAST. GFS EMSEMBLE DIVIDED ON INTENSITY AND TRACK OF THIS
SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR RIGHT INTO SATURDAY W/THE EXCEPTION FOR KFVE AS
MVFR IS POSSIBLE W/THE LIGHT SNOW. EVEN KCAR RUNS THE RISK OF
SEEING A PERIOD OF MVFR.

SHORT TERM: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY THEN IFR CONDITIONS
MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY. CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR TUESDAY.
VFR CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: EXTENDED THE SCA THROUGH 12 PM SATURDAY AS WINDS GUSTS
TO 25 KTS STILL POSSIBLE. A LLVL JET OF AROUND 40 KT IS FORECAST
TO SET UP OVER THE WATERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF THIS WIND TO MIX DOWN TO
THE SURFACE. ATTM, BROUGHT WINDS GUSTS NEAR 35 KTS BY 00Z. LATER
CREWS CAN ASSESS THE NEED TO UPGRADE TO GALES IF NEEDED. WAVE
HEIGHTS ATTM WERE RUNNING 4-5 FT AND ARE FORECAST TO DROP BACK
INTO SATURDAY W/THE OFFSHORE WIND.

SHORT TERM: FOR SUSTAINED WINDS WILL USE THE NAM12 SUNDAY AND
MONDAY THEN TRANSITION TO THE SUPER BLEND WINDS. FOR WAVES: EXPECT
SOTHERLY WIND WAVE TO BECOME THE PRIMARY WAVE SYSTEM SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY AS HIGH CENTER MOVES OFF THE COAST INTO THE
ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERLY FETCH INCREASES FROM THE GULF OF MAINE
SOUTHWARD. EXPECT SOUTHERLY WAVE SYSTEM TO PERSIST INTO EARLY
TUESDAY THEN BE BROKEN UP BY OFF-SHORE FLOW AS A COLD FRONT PASSES
TUESDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 12 PM EST SATURDAY FOR
ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HEWITT
SHORT TERM...MIGNONE
LONG TERM...MIGNONE
AVIATION...HEWITT/MIGNONE
MARINE...HEWITT/MIGNONE




000
FXUS61 KCAR 212035
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
335 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AND MOVE EAST ON SUNDAY. MEANWHILE, A DISTURBANCE WILL
PASS ACROSS NORTHERN FRINGES OF MAINE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS WEST OF THE REGION ON
MONDAY.

&&

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A SURFACE TROF WILL EXIT INTO NEW BRUNSWICK BY EARLY EVENING.
HIGH PRES MOVING ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT WILL
RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE COMING TO AN
END W/CLEARING EXPECTED. THIS SHOWS UP ON THE 12Z NAM AND GFS
SOUNDINGS W/THE 850-700MB LAYER DRYING OUT. THEREFORE, DECIDED TO
DROP POPS BACK BELOW 15% BY THE EVENING. WINDS WILL BE DROPPING
OFF AS WELL W/THE RIDGE BUILDING IN. THE COMBINATION OF THE CLEAR
SKIES/LIGHT WINDS AND COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE WILL LEAD TO SOME COLD
TEMPERATURES FOR LATE NOVEMBER. WE ARE TALKING SINGLE NUMBERS FOR
THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF MAINE W/READINGS AOB BELOW 0F FOR AREAS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN BORDER AND BACK TO NW. 10-15 DEGREES SHOULD
DO FOR CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS.

SATURDAY WILL HAVE CLOUDS MOVING IN ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN
AREAS WHILE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST WILL SEE MAINLY PARTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE IN THE FORM OF A WARM FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO LIFT ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS ON SATURDAY. THIS FEATURE
IS SUPPORTED BY A DECENT LLVL JET OF 50 KT. NAM AND GFS SOUNDINGS
SHOW DEEP MOISTURE FROM 925-700MBS. ANOTHER FEATURE TO CONSIDER IS
THE VEERING WINDS THROUGH 800MBS W/INCREASING SPEEDS. THIS IS MOST
PROMINENT ACROSS THE WESTERN AND THE CROWN. THE DECISION WAS TO GO
AHEAD AND INCREASE THE POPS AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. THIS MEANS 50-60%
ON THE POPS AND AROUND AN INCH OR SO OF SNOW. THE WX ELEMENT LOOKS
TO BE LIGHT SNOW GIVEN THE OVERRUNNING NATURE OF THE SETUP.
THEREFORE, LEANED W/LIGHT SNOW INSTEAD OF SNOW SHOWERS TO ACCOUNT
FOR THIS THINKING. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SOME BUT STILL WELL
BELOW NORMAL FOR NOVEMBER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE NEAR CAPE HATTERAS LATE SATURDAY WILL MOVE TO
THE EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL TIGHTEN
SOUTHWESTERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THE DEPARTING HIGH
RESULTING IN OVER-RUNNING PRECIPITATION BREAKING OUT FROM THE
GREAT LAKES INTO WESTERN MAINE. EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO BEGIN AS
SNOW SUNDAY THEN QUICKLY TRANSITION TO MIXED AS STRONG WARM
ADVECTION TAKES PALCE ALOFT AS PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO
TIGHTEN BETWEEN DEEP LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC. WILL USE THE MOSG25 FOR
WINDS SINCE IT CAN BETTER HANDLE DECOUPLING WINDS IN ENTRENCHED
COLD AIR MASS AT SURFACE. FOR TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT WILL USE
NAM12 DURING WARM ADVECTION ALOFT THEN TRANSITION TO RAW BLEND TO
BETTER HANDLE TRANSITION TO WARM AIR MASS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
INTENSE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF JAMES BAY MONDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL
PIVOT AROUND THE SOUTH PORTION OF THE LOW AND MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION EARLY TUESDAY. THE ECMWF IS SIMILAR WITH THIS SYSTEM AND
SLIGHTLY FURTHER TO THE EAST. ALL 12 GFS EMSEMBLE PERTURBATIONS
ALSO SIMILAR WITH TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM ALTHOUGH SOME VARY IN BOTH
INTENSITY AND TIMIMG. SO EXPECT TRANSITION TO LIQUID PRECIPITATION
TO TAKE PLACE QUICKLY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH DYNAMIC
SYSTEM PASSING TO THE WEST. FOR TUESDAY EXPECT DRIER AIR MASS WITH
COLD ADVECTION CONTINUING BEHIND DEPARTING LOW. FOR WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY BOTH OPERATIONAL GFS....OPERATIONAL ECMWF AND MOST GFS
ENSEMBLE PERTURBATIONS INDICATE DEVELOPMENT OVER ATLANTIC ALONG
EAST COAST. GFS EMSEMBLE DIVIDED ON INTENSITY AND TRACK OF THIS
SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR RIGHT INTO SATURDAY W/THE EXCEPTION FOR KFVE AS
MVFR IS POSSIBLE W/THE LIGHT SNOW. EVEN KCAR RUNS THE RISK OF
SEEING A PERIOD OF MVFR.

SHORT TERM: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY THEN IFR CONDITIONS
MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY. CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR TUESDAY.
VFR CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: EXTENDED THE SCA THROUGH 12 PM SATURDAY AS WINDS GUSTS
TO 25 KTS STILL POSSIBLE. A LLVL JET OF AROUND 40 KT IS FORECAST
TO SET UP OVER THE WATERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF THIS WIND TO MIX DOWN TO
THE SURFACE. ATTM, BROUGHT WINDS GUSTS NEAR 35 KTS BY 00Z. LATER
CREWS CAN ASSESS THE NEED TO UPGRADE TO GALES IF NEEDED. WAVE
HEIGHTS ATTM WERE RUNNING 4-5 FT AND ARE FORECAST TO DROP BACK
INTO SATURDAY W/THE OFFSHORE WIND.

SHORT TERM: FOR SUSTAINED WINDS WILL USE THE NAM12 SUNDAY AND
MONDAY THEN TRANSITION TO THE SUPER BLEND WINDS. FOR WAVES: EXPECT
SOTHERLY WIND WAVE TO BECOME THE PRIMARY WAVE SYSTEM SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY AS HIGH CENTER MOVES OFF THE COAST INTO THE
ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERLY FETCH INCREASES FROM THE GULF OF MAINE
SOUTHWARD. EXPECT SOUTHERLY WAVE SYSTEM TO PERSIST INTO EARLY
TUESDAY THEN BE BROKEN UP BY OFF-SHORE FLOW AS A COLD FRONT PASSES
TUESDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 12 PM EST SATURDAY FOR
ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HEWITT
SHORT TERM...MIGNONE
LONG TERM...MIGNONE
AVIATION...HEWITT/MIGNONE
MARINE...HEWITT/MIGNONE



000
FXUS61 KCAR 211812
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
112 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...AND THEN MOVE
EAST SUNDAY. STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS WEST OF THE REGION
MONDAY AND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1:00 PM UPDATE...THE LATEST RADAR LOOP SHOWED AREA OF RETURNS
ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN SECTION OF MAINE. THIS AREA OF RETURNS
IS DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF THE OPEN ST. LAWRENCE AND THE SURFACE
TROF MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. THE BEST ENHANCED AREA WAS FROM
MOUNT KATAHDIN DIVING SE INTO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WASHINGTON
COUNTY. THIS IS PICKED UP WELL BY THE LATEST VISIBLE SATL IMAGERY
AS WELL AS THE 12KM WRF MODEL DEPICTING THE AREA AND BEST
INSTABILITY. LAPS SOUNDINGS SHOWED SB CAPES 50+ JOULES IN THE
AREA OF ENHANCED ECHOES. THEREFORE, DECIDED TO BRING SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS UP A BIT TO GO W/0.5" THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. NAM/RAP
SOUNDINGS SHOWED DRYING WORKING THROUGH THE COLUMN BY 4 PM(20Z)
W/SNOW SHOWERS ENDING. WINDS ARE PICKING UP IN RESPONSE TO THE
LLVL LAPSE RATES. 850-500MBS LAPSE RATES WERE RUNNING 6.5+ C/KM.
THESE LAPSE RATES ARE WHAT WE WOULD SEE IN THE SUMMER TIME AND
REFLECTIVE OF AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS.

ALOFT...A DEEP MID- UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER
NEW ENGLAND AND THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES WILL MOVE EAST TODAY.
500 MB HEIGHTS WILL RISE SIGNIFICANTLY TONIGHT AS A FLAT RIDGE
BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA.

SFC...A TROUGH TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN MAINE THROUGH MID-MORNING
AND EXIT INTO NEW BRUNSWICK. STRING HIGH PRESSURE IN THE MIDWEST
WILL MOVE TO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT.

SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...TODAY WILL BE A WINDY AND COLD DAY
WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS THIS MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN
MAINE AS A TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. DRIER IN THE WAKE OF THE
TROUGH FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON
WILL NOT GET OUT OF THE 20S ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE TO NEAR 30 IN
THE BANGOR AREA. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES COMBINED WITH 925-850
MB WIND OF 25-30 KNOTS WILL MAKE FOR A WINDY DAY. EXPECT SUSTAINED
WIND SPEEDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 TO 35 MPH. THIS WILL
KEEP WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOW TEENS THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE CROWN OF MAINE WITH TEENS DOWN EAST. THE WIND WILL
SLACKEN THIS EVENING...AND WITH A MAINLY CLEAR SKY EXPECT A VERY
COLD NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTH TO TEENS ALONG THE
COAST. SOME OF THE NORMAL COLD SPOTS IN THE NW VALLEYS HAVE A
DECENT SHOT AT DROPPING BELOW ZERO...AND HAVE LOWERED TEMPS SOME
IN THE NORMAL COLD SPOTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
SATURDAY AND MOVE OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT. A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING
THROUGH THE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE SATURDAY, MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THERE`S NOT A TON OF MOISTURE WITH THIS FEATURE, SO SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATION WILL BE AN INCH OR LESS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID AND
UPPER 20S NORTH TO THE LOWER TO MID 30S SOUTH.

THE HIGH WILL SHIFT EASTWARD SATURDAY NIGHT, ALLOWING FOR WARMER AIR
TO BEGIN TO MOVE NORTHWARD ON SOUTHWEST FLOW. MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE EARLY IN THE EVENING, WITH 3-
HOURLY TEMPERATURES HOLDING STEADY OR EVEN RISING SLIGHTLY
OVERNIGHT. HAVE GONE A BIT WARMER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST
ACCORDINGLY. EXPECT WE`LL SEE SOME LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT
AS ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE REGION. THE PRECIPITATION
WILL MAINLY FALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW, WITH SOME RAIN MIXING IN ALONG
THE COAST. SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE LESS THAN AN INCH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY NOSE INTO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY,
WITH INCREASING WARM AIR ADVECTION KEEPING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS OVER MAINLY WESTERN AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE
MID AND UPPER 30S IN THE NORTH, AND THE LOWER TO MID 40 SOUTH, SO
SNOW IS EXPECTED TO AT LEAST MIX WITH RAIN, EVEN IN THE NORTHERN
REACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A BIG WARMUP IS ON TAP FOR THE START OF THE WORK WEEK. LOW
PRESSURE WILL SLIDE NORTHWARD FROM THE MIDWEST ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND INTO CENTRAL ONTARIO AND QUEBEC MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY,
LIFTING ITS WARM FRONT ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AS IT DOES SO. AS SUCH,
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE 40S AND 50S DURING THE DAY
MONDAY AND REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING RIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD FROM SOUTH TO NORTH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT,
STARTING OUT AS SNOW NORTH/RAIN SOUTH, BUT IT WILL TRANSITION OVER
TO RAIN EVERYWHERE ON MONDAY. AN OCCLUDED FRONT WILL CROSS FROM
WEST TO EAST MONDAY NIGHT, ALLOWING THE RAIN TO TAPER TO SHOWERS,
BUT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE STATE LATER TUESDAY, FINALLY
BRINGING IN THE COLDER AIR FOR TUESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER, THE AIR
WILL POST-FRONT WILL ALSO BE MUCH DRIER, SO EXPECT THE RAIN
SHOWERS TO COME TO AN END BEFORE THEY HAVE THE CHANCE TO CHANGE
OVER TO SNOW. THE FORECAST MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME DISCREPANCIES
FOR MID WEEK, MAINLY WITH THE HANDLING OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL LIFT UP THE EAST COAST/WESTERN
ATLANTIC. THE ECMWF IS MUCH CLOSER TO THE COAST WITH THE LATTER
SYSTEM, BASICALLY BRINGING THE LOW CENTER JUST OFF THE SOUTH NOVA
SCOTIA COAST, WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE CENTER WELL TO THE EAST.
HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE POPS FOR NOW DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY.
REGARDLESS, THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN
THE START, WITH HIGHS AND LOWS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
SOME 5 TO 10 DEGREES COLDER THAN MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: POCKETS OF MVFR AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS FROM KHUL
NORTH TO KFVE THROUGH MID AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE VFR THROUGH
TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY,
BUT SOME MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE AT KFVE AND
KCAR SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING IN SNOW SHOWERS. THE NEXT
SIGNIFICANT CHANCE FOR POOR CONDITIONS ARRIVES MONDAY AS A WARM
FRONT CROSSES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. PRECIPITATION WILL START AS
SNOW IN THE NORTH/RAIN IN THE SOUTH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT, THEN
TRANSITION TO ALL RAIN DURING THE DAY MONDAY. MVFR IS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL, WITH IFR POSSIBLE IN ANY SNOW. WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL GIVE
WAY TO SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT, BUT EXPECT THE MVFR/LOCAL IFR TO
CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING DRIER AIR
AND CLEARING SKIES TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WAS EXTENDED THROUGH TONIGHT.
A FEW GUSTS TO NEAR GALE FORCE ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING
AS ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AIR HITS THE WATER TODAY. THE WIND WILL
SLOWLY DIMINISH TONIGHT...BUT GUSTS OF 25-30 KNOTS ARE LIKELY MOST
OF THE NIGHT.

SHORT TERM: A LOW-LEVEL JET OF 35-45KT WILL SET UP OVER THE
WATERS LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. EXPECT AT LEAST PART
OF THIS WILL BE ABLE TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE OWING TO THE
RELATIVELY WARM WATERS, SO WOULD ANTICIPATE AT LEAST A HIGH-END
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED, IF NOT A GALE WATCH/WARNING.
LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TRENDS CLOSELY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HEWITT




000
FXUS61 KCAR 211812
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
112 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...AND THEN MOVE
EAST SUNDAY. STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS WEST OF THE REGION
MONDAY AND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1:00 PM UPDATE...THE LATEST RADAR LOOP SHOWED AREA OF RETURNS
ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN SECTION OF MAINE. THIS AREA OF RETURNS
IS DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF THE OPEN ST. LAWRENCE AND THE SURFACE
TROF MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. THE BEST ENHANCED AREA WAS FROM
MOUNT KATAHDIN DIVING SE INTO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WASHINGTON
COUNTY. THIS IS PICKED UP WELL BY THE LATEST VISIBLE SATL IMAGERY
AS WELL AS THE 12KM WRF MODEL DEPICTING THE AREA AND BEST
INSTABILITY. LAPS SOUNDINGS SHOWED SB CAPES 50+ JOULES IN THE
AREA OF ENHANCED ECHOES. THEREFORE, DECIDED TO BRING SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS UP A BIT TO GO W/0.5" THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. NAM/RAP
SOUNDINGS SHOWED DRYING WORKING THROUGH THE COLUMN BY 4 PM(20Z)
W/SNOW SHOWERS ENDING. WINDS ARE PICKING UP IN RESPONSE TO THE
LLVL LAPSE RATES. 850-500MBS LAPSE RATES WERE RUNNING 6.5+ C/KM.
THESE LAPSE RATES ARE WHAT WE WOULD SEE IN THE SUMMER TIME AND
REFLECTIVE OF AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS.

ALOFT...A DEEP MID- UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER
NEW ENGLAND AND THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES WILL MOVE EAST TODAY.
500 MB HEIGHTS WILL RISE SIGNIFICANTLY TONIGHT AS A FLAT RIDGE
BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA.

SFC...A TROUGH TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN MAINE THROUGH MID-MORNING
AND EXIT INTO NEW BRUNSWICK. STRING HIGH PRESSURE IN THE MIDWEST
WILL MOVE TO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT.

SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...TODAY WILL BE A WINDY AND COLD DAY
WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS THIS MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN
MAINE AS A TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. DRIER IN THE WAKE OF THE
TROUGH FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON
WILL NOT GET OUT OF THE 20S ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE TO NEAR 30 IN
THE BANGOR AREA. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES COMBINED WITH 925-850
MB WIND OF 25-30 KNOTS WILL MAKE FOR A WINDY DAY. EXPECT SUSTAINED
WIND SPEEDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 TO 35 MPH. THIS WILL
KEEP WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOW TEENS THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE CROWN OF MAINE WITH TEENS DOWN EAST. THE WIND WILL
SLACKEN THIS EVENING...AND WITH A MAINLY CLEAR SKY EXPECT A VERY
COLD NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTH TO TEENS ALONG THE
COAST. SOME OF THE NORMAL COLD SPOTS IN THE NW VALLEYS HAVE A
DECENT SHOT AT DROPPING BELOW ZERO...AND HAVE LOWERED TEMPS SOME
IN THE NORMAL COLD SPOTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
SATURDAY AND MOVE OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT. A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING
THROUGH THE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE SATURDAY, MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THERE`S NOT A TON OF MOISTURE WITH THIS FEATURE, SO SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATION WILL BE AN INCH OR LESS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID AND
UPPER 20S NORTH TO THE LOWER TO MID 30S SOUTH.

THE HIGH WILL SHIFT EASTWARD SATURDAY NIGHT, ALLOWING FOR WARMER AIR
TO BEGIN TO MOVE NORTHWARD ON SOUTHWEST FLOW. MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE EARLY IN THE EVENING, WITH 3-
HOURLY TEMPERATURES HOLDING STEADY OR EVEN RISING SLIGHTLY
OVERNIGHT. HAVE GONE A BIT WARMER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST
ACCORDINGLY. EXPECT WE`LL SEE SOME LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT
AS ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE REGION. THE PRECIPITATION
WILL MAINLY FALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW, WITH SOME RAIN MIXING IN ALONG
THE COAST. SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE LESS THAN AN INCH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY NOSE INTO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY,
WITH INCREASING WARM AIR ADVECTION KEEPING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS OVER MAINLY WESTERN AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE
MID AND UPPER 30S IN THE NORTH, AND THE LOWER TO MID 40 SOUTH, SO
SNOW IS EXPECTED TO AT LEAST MIX WITH RAIN, EVEN IN THE NORTHERN
REACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A BIG WARMUP IS ON TAP FOR THE START OF THE WORK WEEK. LOW
PRESSURE WILL SLIDE NORTHWARD FROM THE MIDWEST ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND INTO CENTRAL ONTARIO AND QUEBEC MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY,
LIFTING ITS WARM FRONT ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AS IT DOES SO. AS SUCH,
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE 40S AND 50S DURING THE DAY
MONDAY AND REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING RIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD FROM SOUTH TO NORTH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT,
STARTING OUT AS SNOW NORTH/RAIN SOUTH, BUT IT WILL TRANSITION OVER
TO RAIN EVERYWHERE ON MONDAY. AN OCCLUDED FRONT WILL CROSS FROM
WEST TO EAST MONDAY NIGHT, ALLOWING THE RAIN TO TAPER TO SHOWERS,
BUT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE STATE LATER TUESDAY, FINALLY
BRINGING IN THE COLDER AIR FOR TUESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER, THE AIR
WILL POST-FRONT WILL ALSO BE MUCH DRIER, SO EXPECT THE RAIN
SHOWERS TO COME TO AN END BEFORE THEY HAVE THE CHANCE TO CHANGE
OVER TO SNOW. THE FORECAST MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME DISCREPANCIES
FOR MID WEEK, MAINLY WITH THE HANDLING OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL LIFT UP THE EAST COAST/WESTERN
ATLANTIC. THE ECMWF IS MUCH CLOSER TO THE COAST WITH THE LATTER
SYSTEM, BASICALLY BRINGING THE LOW CENTER JUST OFF THE SOUTH NOVA
SCOTIA COAST, WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE CENTER WELL TO THE EAST.
HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE POPS FOR NOW DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY.
REGARDLESS, THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN
THE START, WITH HIGHS AND LOWS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
SOME 5 TO 10 DEGREES COLDER THAN MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: POCKETS OF MVFR AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS FROM KHUL
NORTH TO KFVE THROUGH MID AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE VFR THROUGH
TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY,
BUT SOME MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE AT KFVE AND
KCAR SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING IN SNOW SHOWERS. THE NEXT
SIGNIFICANT CHANCE FOR POOR CONDITIONS ARRIVES MONDAY AS A WARM
FRONT CROSSES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. PRECIPITATION WILL START AS
SNOW IN THE NORTH/RAIN IN THE SOUTH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT, THEN
TRANSITION TO ALL RAIN DURING THE DAY MONDAY. MVFR IS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL, WITH IFR POSSIBLE IN ANY SNOW. WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL GIVE
WAY TO SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT, BUT EXPECT THE MVFR/LOCAL IFR TO
CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING DRIER AIR
AND CLEARING SKIES TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WAS EXTENDED THROUGH TONIGHT.
A FEW GUSTS TO NEAR GALE FORCE ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING
AS ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AIR HITS THE WATER TODAY. THE WIND WILL
SLOWLY DIMINISH TONIGHT...BUT GUSTS OF 25-30 KNOTS ARE LIKELY MOST
OF THE NIGHT.

SHORT TERM: A LOW-LEVEL JET OF 35-45KT WILL SET UP OVER THE
WATERS LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. EXPECT AT LEAST PART
OF THIS WILL BE ABLE TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE OWING TO THE
RELATIVELY WARM WATERS, SO WOULD ANTICIPATE AT LEAST A HIGH-END
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED, IF NOT A GALE WATCH/WARNING.
LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TRENDS CLOSELY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HEWITT




000
FXUS61 KCAR 211812
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
112 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...AND THEN MOVE
EAST SUNDAY. STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS WEST OF THE REGION
MONDAY AND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1:00 PM UPDATE...THE LATEST RADAR LOOP SHOWED AREA OF RETURNS
ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN SECTION OF MAINE. THIS AREA OF RETURNS
IS DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF THE OPEN ST. LAWRENCE AND THE SURFACE
TROF MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. THE BEST ENHANCED AREA WAS FROM
MOUNT KATAHDIN DIVING SE INTO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WASHINGTON
COUNTY. THIS IS PICKED UP WELL BY THE LATEST VISIBLE SATL IMAGERY
AS WELL AS THE 12KM WRF MODEL DEPICTING THE AREA AND BEST
INSTABILITY. LAPS SOUNDINGS SHOWED SB CAPES 50+ JOULES IN THE
AREA OF ENHANCED ECHOES. THEREFORE, DECIDED TO BRING SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS UP A BIT TO GO W/0.5" THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. NAM/RAP
SOUNDINGS SHOWED DRYING WORKING THROUGH THE COLUMN BY 4 PM(20Z)
W/SNOW SHOWERS ENDING. WINDS ARE PICKING UP IN RESPONSE TO THE
LLVL LAPSE RATES. 850-500MBS LAPSE RATES WERE RUNNING 6.5+ C/KM.
THESE LAPSE RATES ARE WHAT WE WOULD SEE IN THE SUMMER TIME AND
REFLECTIVE OF AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS.

ALOFT...A DEEP MID- UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER
NEW ENGLAND AND THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES WILL MOVE EAST TODAY.
500 MB HEIGHTS WILL RISE SIGNIFICANTLY TONIGHT AS A FLAT RIDGE
BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA.

SFC...A TROUGH TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN MAINE THROUGH MID-MORNING
AND EXIT INTO NEW BRUNSWICK. STRING HIGH PRESSURE IN THE MIDWEST
WILL MOVE TO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT.

SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...TODAY WILL BE A WINDY AND COLD DAY
WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS THIS MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN
MAINE AS A TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. DRIER IN THE WAKE OF THE
TROUGH FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON
WILL NOT GET OUT OF THE 20S ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE TO NEAR 30 IN
THE BANGOR AREA. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES COMBINED WITH 925-850
MB WIND OF 25-30 KNOTS WILL MAKE FOR A WINDY DAY. EXPECT SUSTAINED
WIND SPEEDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 TO 35 MPH. THIS WILL
KEEP WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOW TEENS THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE CROWN OF MAINE WITH TEENS DOWN EAST. THE WIND WILL
SLACKEN THIS EVENING...AND WITH A MAINLY CLEAR SKY EXPECT A VERY
COLD NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTH TO TEENS ALONG THE
COAST. SOME OF THE NORMAL COLD SPOTS IN THE NW VALLEYS HAVE A
DECENT SHOT AT DROPPING BELOW ZERO...AND HAVE LOWERED TEMPS SOME
IN THE NORMAL COLD SPOTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
SATURDAY AND MOVE OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT. A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING
THROUGH THE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE SATURDAY, MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THERE`S NOT A TON OF MOISTURE WITH THIS FEATURE, SO SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATION WILL BE AN INCH OR LESS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID AND
UPPER 20S NORTH TO THE LOWER TO MID 30S SOUTH.

THE HIGH WILL SHIFT EASTWARD SATURDAY NIGHT, ALLOWING FOR WARMER AIR
TO BEGIN TO MOVE NORTHWARD ON SOUTHWEST FLOW. MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE EARLY IN THE EVENING, WITH 3-
HOURLY TEMPERATURES HOLDING STEADY OR EVEN RISING SLIGHTLY
OVERNIGHT. HAVE GONE A BIT WARMER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST
ACCORDINGLY. EXPECT WE`LL SEE SOME LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT
AS ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE REGION. THE PRECIPITATION
WILL MAINLY FALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW, WITH SOME RAIN MIXING IN ALONG
THE COAST. SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE LESS THAN AN INCH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY NOSE INTO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY,
WITH INCREASING WARM AIR ADVECTION KEEPING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS OVER MAINLY WESTERN AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE
MID AND UPPER 30S IN THE NORTH, AND THE LOWER TO MID 40 SOUTH, SO
SNOW IS EXPECTED TO AT LEAST MIX WITH RAIN, EVEN IN THE NORTHERN
REACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A BIG WARMUP IS ON TAP FOR THE START OF THE WORK WEEK. LOW
PRESSURE WILL SLIDE NORTHWARD FROM THE MIDWEST ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND INTO CENTRAL ONTARIO AND QUEBEC MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY,
LIFTING ITS WARM FRONT ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AS IT DOES SO. AS SUCH,
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE 40S AND 50S DURING THE DAY
MONDAY AND REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING RIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD FROM SOUTH TO NORTH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT,
STARTING OUT AS SNOW NORTH/RAIN SOUTH, BUT IT WILL TRANSITION OVER
TO RAIN EVERYWHERE ON MONDAY. AN OCCLUDED FRONT WILL CROSS FROM
WEST TO EAST MONDAY NIGHT, ALLOWING THE RAIN TO TAPER TO SHOWERS,
BUT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE STATE LATER TUESDAY, FINALLY
BRINGING IN THE COLDER AIR FOR TUESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER, THE AIR
WILL POST-FRONT WILL ALSO BE MUCH DRIER, SO EXPECT THE RAIN
SHOWERS TO COME TO AN END BEFORE THEY HAVE THE CHANCE TO CHANGE
OVER TO SNOW. THE FORECAST MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME DISCREPANCIES
FOR MID WEEK, MAINLY WITH THE HANDLING OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL LIFT UP THE EAST COAST/WESTERN
ATLANTIC. THE ECMWF IS MUCH CLOSER TO THE COAST WITH THE LATTER
SYSTEM, BASICALLY BRINGING THE LOW CENTER JUST OFF THE SOUTH NOVA
SCOTIA COAST, WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE CENTER WELL TO THE EAST.
HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE POPS FOR NOW DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY.
REGARDLESS, THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN
THE START, WITH HIGHS AND LOWS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
SOME 5 TO 10 DEGREES COLDER THAN MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: POCKETS OF MVFR AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS FROM KHUL
NORTH TO KFVE THROUGH MID AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE VFR THROUGH
TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY,
BUT SOME MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE AT KFVE AND
KCAR SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING IN SNOW SHOWERS. THE NEXT
SIGNIFICANT CHANCE FOR POOR CONDITIONS ARRIVES MONDAY AS A WARM
FRONT CROSSES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. PRECIPITATION WILL START AS
SNOW IN THE NORTH/RAIN IN THE SOUTH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT, THEN
TRANSITION TO ALL RAIN DURING THE DAY MONDAY. MVFR IS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL, WITH IFR POSSIBLE IN ANY SNOW. WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL GIVE
WAY TO SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT, BUT EXPECT THE MVFR/LOCAL IFR TO
CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING DRIER AIR
AND CLEARING SKIES TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WAS EXTENDED THROUGH TONIGHT.
A FEW GUSTS TO NEAR GALE FORCE ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING
AS ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AIR HITS THE WATER TODAY. THE WIND WILL
SLOWLY DIMINISH TONIGHT...BUT GUSTS OF 25-30 KNOTS ARE LIKELY MOST
OF THE NIGHT.

SHORT TERM: A LOW-LEVEL JET OF 35-45KT WILL SET UP OVER THE
WATERS LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. EXPECT AT LEAST PART
OF THIS WILL BE ABLE TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE OWING TO THE
RELATIVELY WARM WATERS, SO WOULD ANTICIPATE AT LEAST A HIGH-END
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED, IF NOT A GALE WATCH/WARNING.
LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TRENDS CLOSELY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HEWITT




000
FXUS61 KCAR 211812
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
112 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...AND THEN MOVE
EAST SUNDAY. STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS WEST OF THE REGION
MONDAY AND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1:00 PM UPDATE...THE LATEST RADAR LOOP SHOWED AREA OF RETURNS
ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN SECTION OF MAINE. THIS AREA OF RETURNS
IS DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF THE OPEN ST. LAWRENCE AND THE SURFACE
TROF MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. THE BEST ENHANCED AREA WAS FROM
MOUNT KATAHDIN DIVING SE INTO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WASHINGTON
COUNTY. THIS IS PICKED UP WELL BY THE LATEST VISIBLE SATL IMAGERY
AS WELL AS THE 12KM WRF MODEL DEPICTING THE AREA AND BEST
INSTABILITY. LAPS SOUNDINGS SHOWED SB CAPES 50+ JOULES IN THE
AREA OF ENHANCED ECHOES. THEREFORE, DECIDED TO BRING SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS UP A BIT TO GO W/0.5" THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. NAM/RAP
SOUNDINGS SHOWED DRYING WORKING THROUGH THE COLUMN BY 4 PM(20Z)
W/SNOW SHOWERS ENDING. WINDS ARE PICKING UP IN RESPONSE TO THE
LLVL LAPSE RATES. 850-500MBS LAPSE RATES WERE RUNNING 6.5+ C/KM.
THESE LAPSE RATES ARE WHAT WE WOULD SEE IN THE SUMMER TIME AND
REFLECTIVE OF AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS.

ALOFT...A DEEP MID- UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER
NEW ENGLAND AND THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES WILL MOVE EAST TODAY.
500 MB HEIGHTS WILL RISE SIGNIFICANTLY TONIGHT AS A FLAT RIDGE
BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA.

SFC...A TROUGH TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN MAINE THROUGH MID-MORNING
AND EXIT INTO NEW BRUNSWICK. STRING HIGH PRESSURE IN THE MIDWEST
WILL MOVE TO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT.

SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...TODAY WILL BE A WINDY AND COLD DAY
WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS THIS MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN
MAINE AS A TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. DRIER IN THE WAKE OF THE
TROUGH FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON
WILL NOT GET OUT OF THE 20S ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE TO NEAR 30 IN
THE BANGOR AREA. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES COMBINED WITH 925-850
MB WIND OF 25-30 KNOTS WILL MAKE FOR A WINDY DAY. EXPECT SUSTAINED
WIND SPEEDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 TO 35 MPH. THIS WILL
KEEP WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOW TEENS THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE CROWN OF MAINE WITH TEENS DOWN EAST. THE WIND WILL
SLACKEN THIS EVENING...AND WITH A MAINLY CLEAR SKY EXPECT A VERY
COLD NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTH TO TEENS ALONG THE
COAST. SOME OF THE NORMAL COLD SPOTS IN THE NW VALLEYS HAVE A
DECENT SHOT AT DROPPING BELOW ZERO...AND HAVE LOWERED TEMPS SOME
IN THE NORMAL COLD SPOTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
SATURDAY AND MOVE OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT. A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING
THROUGH THE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE SATURDAY, MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THERE`S NOT A TON OF MOISTURE WITH THIS FEATURE, SO SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATION WILL BE AN INCH OR LESS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID AND
UPPER 20S NORTH TO THE LOWER TO MID 30S SOUTH.

THE HIGH WILL SHIFT EASTWARD SATURDAY NIGHT, ALLOWING FOR WARMER AIR
TO BEGIN TO MOVE NORTHWARD ON SOUTHWEST FLOW. MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE EARLY IN THE EVENING, WITH 3-
HOURLY TEMPERATURES HOLDING STEADY OR EVEN RISING SLIGHTLY
OVERNIGHT. HAVE GONE A BIT WARMER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST
ACCORDINGLY. EXPECT WE`LL SEE SOME LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT
AS ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE REGION. THE PRECIPITATION
WILL MAINLY FALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW, WITH SOME RAIN MIXING IN ALONG
THE COAST. SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE LESS THAN AN INCH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY NOSE INTO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY,
WITH INCREASING WARM AIR ADVECTION KEEPING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS OVER MAINLY WESTERN AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE
MID AND UPPER 30S IN THE NORTH, AND THE LOWER TO MID 40 SOUTH, SO
SNOW IS EXPECTED TO AT LEAST MIX WITH RAIN, EVEN IN THE NORTHERN
REACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A BIG WARMUP IS ON TAP FOR THE START OF THE WORK WEEK. LOW
PRESSURE WILL SLIDE NORTHWARD FROM THE MIDWEST ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND INTO CENTRAL ONTARIO AND QUEBEC MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY,
LIFTING ITS WARM FRONT ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AS IT DOES SO. AS SUCH,
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE 40S AND 50S DURING THE DAY
MONDAY AND REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING RIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD FROM SOUTH TO NORTH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT,
STARTING OUT AS SNOW NORTH/RAIN SOUTH, BUT IT WILL TRANSITION OVER
TO RAIN EVERYWHERE ON MONDAY. AN OCCLUDED FRONT WILL CROSS FROM
WEST TO EAST MONDAY NIGHT, ALLOWING THE RAIN TO TAPER TO SHOWERS,
BUT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE STATE LATER TUESDAY, FINALLY
BRINGING IN THE COLDER AIR FOR TUESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER, THE AIR
WILL POST-FRONT WILL ALSO BE MUCH DRIER, SO EXPECT THE RAIN
SHOWERS TO COME TO AN END BEFORE THEY HAVE THE CHANCE TO CHANGE
OVER TO SNOW. THE FORECAST MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME DISCREPANCIES
FOR MID WEEK, MAINLY WITH THE HANDLING OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL LIFT UP THE EAST COAST/WESTERN
ATLANTIC. THE ECMWF IS MUCH CLOSER TO THE COAST WITH THE LATTER
SYSTEM, BASICALLY BRINGING THE LOW CENTER JUST OFF THE SOUTH NOVA
SCOTIA COAST, WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE CENTER WELL TO THE EAST.
HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE POPS FOR NOW DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY.
REGARDLESS, THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN
THE START, WITH HIGHS AND LOWS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
SOME 5 TO 10 DEGREES COLDER THAN MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: POCKETS OF MVFR AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS FROM KHUL
NORTH TO KFVE THROUGH MID AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE VFR THROUGH
TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY,
BUT SOME MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE AT KFVE AND
KCAR SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING IN SNOW SHOWERS. THE NEXT
SIGNIFICANT CHANCE FOR POOR CONDITIONS ARRIVES MONDAY AS A WARM
FRONT CROSSES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. PRECIPITATION WILL START AS
SNOW IN THE NORTH/RAIN IN THE SOUTH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT, THEN
TRANSITION TO ALL RAIN DURING THE DAY MONDAY. MVFR IS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL, WITH IFR POSSIBLE IN ANY SNOW. WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL GIVE
WAY TO SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT, BUT EXPECT THE MVFR/LOCAL IFR TO
CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING DRIER AIR
AND CLEARING SKIES TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WAS EXTENDED THROUGH TONIGHT.
A FEW GUSTS TO NEAR GALE FORCE ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING
AS ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AIR HITS THE WATER TODAY. THE WIND WILL
SLOWLY DIMINISH TONIGHT...BUT GUSTS OF 25-30 KNOTS ARE LIKELY MOST
OF THE NIGHT.

SHORT TERM: A LOW-LEVEL JET OF 35-45KT WILL SET UP OVER THE
WATERS LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. EXPECT AT LEAST PART
OF THIS WILL BE ABLE TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE OWING TO THE
RELATIVELY WARM WATERS, SO WOULD ANTICIPATE AT LEAST A HIGH-END
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED, IF NOT A GALE WATCH/WARNING.
LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TRENDS CLOSELY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HEWITT




000
FXUS61 KCAR 211446
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
946 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...AND THEN MOVE
EAST SUNDAY. STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS WEST OF THE REGION
MONDAY AND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
945 AM UPDATE...12Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A TROF SLIDING SE
ACROSS THE STATE. LATEST RADAR LOOP SHOWED LIGHT RETURNS W/THE OBS
INDICATING SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS(IE.KFVE). 12Z CAR RAOB SHOWED
AN UNSTABLE SOUNDING W/SB CAPE AROUND 60 AND FAIRLY STEEP LLVL
LAPSE RATE FOR EARLY WINTER. LAPS SOUNDINGS MATCH THE CAR RAOB AND
SHOW POTENTIAL FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS INTO EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS
NORTHERN AND WESTERN MAINE. THE 12KM WRF INDICATED THE POTENTIAL
FOR AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW TO SET UP ACROSS THE HUL AN MLT REGION
BACK ACROSS MT. KATAHDIN THROUGH 2 PM W/NW FLOW COMING OFF OPEN
ST. LAWRENCE INDICATING THE STREAMER POTENTIAL. ANY SNOWFALL WILL
BE MINIMAL W/A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH. STAYED W/THE MIDNIGHT
CREW`S ASSESSMENT OF GUSTS TO 35 MPH THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING THANKS TO THE LLVL LAPSE RATES.

ALOFT...A DEEP MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER NEW ENGLAND AND THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES WILL MOVE EAST TODAY. 500 MB HEIGHTS WILL
RISE SIGNIFICANTLY TONIGHT AS A FLAT RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA.

SFC...A TROUGH TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN MAINE THROUGH MID-MORNING
AND EXIT INTO NEW BRUNSWICK. STRING HIGH PRESSURE IN THE MIDWEST
WILL MOVE TO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT.

SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...TODAY WILL BE A WINDY AND COLD DAY
WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS THIS MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN
MAINE AS A TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. DRIER IN THE WAKE OF THE
TROUGH FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON
WILL NOT GET OUT OF THE 20S ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE TO NEAR 30 IN
THE BANGOR AREA. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES COMBINED WITH 925-850
MB WIND OF 25-30 KNOTS WILL MAKE FOR A WINDY DAY. EXPECT SUSTAINED
WIND SPEEDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 TO 35 MPH. THIS WILL
KEEP WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOW TEENS THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE CROWN OF MAINE WITH TEENS DOWN EAST. THE WIND WILL
SLACKEN THIS EVENING...AND WITH A MAINLY CLEAR SKY EXPECT A VERY
COLD NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTH TO TEENS ALONG THE
COAST. SOME OF THE NORMAL COLD SPOTS IN THE NW VALLEYS HAVE A
DECENT SHOT AT DROPPING BELOW ZERO...AND HAVE LOWERED TEMPS SOME
IN THE NORMAL COLD SPOTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
SATURDAY AND MOVE OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT. A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING
THROUGH THE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE SATURDAY, MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THERE`S NOT A TON OF MOISTURE WITH THIS FEATURE, SO SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATION WILL BE AN INCH OR LESS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID AND
UPPER 20S NORTH TO THE LOWER TO MID 30S SOUTH.

THE HIGH WILL SHIFT EASTWARD SATURDAY NIGHT, ALLOWING FOR WARMER AIR
TO BEGIN TO MOVE NORTHWARD ON SOUTHWEST FLOW. MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE EARLY IN THE EVENING, WITH 3-
HOURLY TEMPERATURES HOLDING STEADY OR EVEN RISING SLIGHTLY
OVERNIGHT. HAVE GONE A BIT WARMER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST
ACCORDINGLY. EXPECT WE`LL SEE SOME LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT
AS ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE REGION. THE PRECIPITATION
WILL MAINLY FALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW, WITH SOME RAIN MIXING IN ALONG
THE COAST. SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE LESS THAN AN INCH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY NOSE INTO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY,
WITH INCREASING WARM AIR ADVECTION KEEPING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS OVER MAINLY WESTERN AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE
MID AND UPPER 30S IN THE NORTH, AND THE LOWER TO MID 40 SOUTH, SO
SNOW IS EXPECTED TO AT LEAST MIX WITH RAIN, EVEN IN THE NORTHERN
REACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A BIG WARMUP IS ON TAP FOR THE START OF THE WORK WEEK. LOW
PRESSURE WILL SLIDE NORTHWARD FROM THE MIDWEST ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND INTO CENTRAL ONTARIO AND QUEBEC MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY,
LIFTING ITS WARM FRONT ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AS IT DOES SO. AS SUCH,
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE 40S AND 50S DURING THE DAY
MONDAY AND REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING RIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD FROM SOUTH TO NORTH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT,
STARTING OUT AS SNOW NORTH/RAIN SOUTH, BUT IT WILL TRANSITION OVER
TO RAIN EVERYWHERE ON MONDAY. AN OCCLUDED FRONT WILL CROSS FROM
WEST TO EAST MONDAY NIGHT, ALLOWING THE RAIN TO TAPER TO SHOWERS,
BUT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE STATE LATER TUESDAY, FINALLY
BRINGING IN THE COLDER AIR FOR TUESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER, THE AIR
WILL POST-FRONT WILL ALSO BE MUCH DRIER, SO EXPECT THE RAIN
SHOWERS TO COME TO AN END BEFORE THEY HAVE THE CHANCE TO CHANGE
OVER TO SNOW. THE FORECAST MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME DISCREPANCIES
FOR MID WEEK, MAINLY WITH THE HANDLING OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL LIFT UP THE EAST COAST/WESTERN
ATLANTIC. THE ECMWF IS MUCH CLOSER TO THE COAST WITH THE LATTER
SYSTEM, BASICALLY BRINGING THE LOW CENTER JUST OFF THE SOUTH NOVA
SCOTIA COAST, WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE CENTER WELL TO THE EAST.
HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE POPS FOR NOW DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY.
REGARDLESS, THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN
THE START, WITH HIGHS AND LOWS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
SOME 5 TO 10 DEGREES COLDER THAN MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: POCKETS OF MVFR AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS FROM KHUL
NORTH TO KFVE THROUGH MID AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE VFR THROUGH
TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY,
BUT SOME MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE AT KFVE AND
KCAR SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING IN SNOW SHOWERS. THE NEXT
SIGNIFICANT CHANCE FOR POOR CONDITIONS ARRIVES MONDAY AS A WARM
FRONT CROSSES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. PRECIPITATION WILL START AS
SNOW IN THE NORTH/RAIN IN THE SOUTH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT, THEN
TRANSITION TO ALL RAIN DURING THE DAY MONDAY. MVFR IS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL, WITH IFR POSSIBLE IN ANY SNOW. WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL GIVE
WAY TO SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT, BUT EXPECT THE MVFR/LOCAL IFR TO
CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING DRIER AIR
AND CLEARING SKIES TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WAS EXTENDED THROUGH TONIGHT.
A FEW GUSTS TO NEAR GALE FORCE ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING
AS ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AIR HITS THE WATER TODAY. THE WIND WILL
SLOWLY DIMINISH TONIGHT...BUT GUSTS OF 25-30 KNOTS ARE LIKELY MOST
OF THE NIGHT.

SHORT TERM: A LOW-LEVEL JET OF 35-45KT WILL SET UP OVER THE
WATERS LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. EXPECT AT LEAST PART
OF THIS WILL BE ABLE TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE OWING TO THE
RELATIVELY WARM WATERS, SO WOULD ANTICIPATE AT LEAST A HIGH-END
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED, IF NOT A GALE WATCH/WARNING.
LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TRENDS CLOSELY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CB/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...HASTINGS
LONG TERM...HASTINGS
AVIATION...CB/HEWITT/HASTINGS
MARINE...CB/HEWITT/HASTINGS



000
FXUS61 KCAR 211446
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
946 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...AND THEN MOVE
EAST SUNDAY. STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS WEST OF THE REGION
MONDAY AND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
945 AM UPDATE...12Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A TROF SLIDING SE
ACROSS THE STATE. LATEST RADAR LOOP SHOWED LIGHT RETURNS W/THE OBS
INDICATING SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS(IE.KFVE). 12Z CAR RAOB SHOWED
AN UNSTABLE SOUNDING W/SB CAPE AROUND 60 AND FAIRLY STEEP LLVL
LAPSE RATE FOR EARLY WINTER. LAPS SOUNDINGS MATCH THE CAR RAOB AND
SHOW POTENTIAL FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS INTO EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS
NORTHERN AND WESTERN MAINE. THE 12KM WRF INDICATED THE POTENTIAL
FOR AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW TO SET UP ACROSS THE HUL AN MLT REGION
BACK ACROSS MT. KATAHDIN THROUGH 2 PM W/NW FLOW COMING OFF OPEN
ST. LAWRENCE INDICATING THE STREAMER POTENTIAL. ANY SNOWFALL WILL
BE MINIMAL W/A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH. STAYED W/THE MIDNIGHT
CREW`S ASSESSMENT OF GUSTS TO 35 MPH THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING THANKS TO THE LLVL LAPSE RATES.

ALOFT...A DEEP MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER NEW ENGLAND AND THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES WILL MOVE EAST TODAY. 500 MB HEIGHTS WILL
RISE SIGNIFICANTLY TONIGHT AS A FLAT RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA.

SFC...A TROUGH TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN MAINE THROUGH MID-MORNING
AND EXIT INTO NEW BRUNSWICK. STRING HIGH PRESSURE IN THE MIDWEST
WILL MOVE TO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT.

SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...TODAY WILL BE A WINDY AND COLD DAY
WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS THIS MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN
MAINE AS A TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. DRIER IN THE WAKE OF THE
TROUGH FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON
WILL NOT GET OUT OF THE 20S ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE TO NEAR 30 IN
THE BANGOR AREA. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES COMBINED WITH 925-850
MB WIND OF 25-30 KNOTS WILL MAKE FOR A WINDY DAY. EXPECT SUSTAINED
WIND SPEEDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 TO 35 MPH. THIS WILL
KEEP WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOW TEENS THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE CROWN OF MAINE WITH TEENS DOWN EAST. THE WIND WILL
SLACKEN THIS EVENING...AND WITH A MAINLY CLEAR SKY EXPECT A VERY
COLD NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTH TO TEENS ALONG THE
COAST. SOME OF THE NORMAL COLD SPOTS IN THE NW VALLEYS HAVE A
DECENT SHOT AT DROPPING BELOW ZERO...AND HAVE LOWERED TEMPS SOME
IN THE NORMAL COLD SPOTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
SATURDAY AND MOVE OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT. A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING
THROUGH THE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE SATURDAY, MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THERE`S NOT A TON OF MOISTURE WITH THIS FEATURE, SO SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATION WILL BE AN INCH OR LESS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID AND
UPPER 20S NORTH TO THE LOWER TO MID 30S SOUTH.

THE HIGH WILL SHIFT EASTWARD SATURDAY NIGHT, ALLOWING FOR WARMER AIR
TO BEGIN TO MOVE NORTHWARD ON SOUTHWEST FLOW. MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE EARLY IN THE EVENING, WITH 3-
HOURLY TEMPERATURES HOLDING STEADY OR EVEN RISING SLIGHTLY
OVERNIGHT. HAVE GONE A BIT WARMER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST
ACCORDINGLY. EXPECT WE`LL SEE SOME LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT
AS ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE REGION. THE PRECIPITATION
WILL MAINLY FALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW, WITH SOME RAIN MIXING IN ALONG
THE COAST. SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE LESS THAN AN INCH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY NOSE INTO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY,
WITH INCREASING WARM AIR ADVECTION KEEPING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS OVER MAINLY WESTERN AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE
MID AND UPPER 30S IN THE NORTH, AND THE LOWER TO MID 40 SOUTH, SO
SNOW IS EXPECTED TO AT LEAST MIX WITH RAIN, EVEN IN THE NORTHERN
REACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A BIG WARMUP IS ON TAP FOR THE START OF THE WORK WEEK. LOW
PRESSURE WILL SLIDE NORTHWARD FROM THE MIDWEST ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND INTO CENTRAL ONTARIO AND QUEBEC MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY,
LIFTING ITS WARM FRONT ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AS IT DOES SO. AS SUCH,
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE 40S AND 50S DURING THE DAY
MONDAY AND REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING RIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD FROM SOUTH TO NORTH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT,
STARTING OUT AS SNOW NORTH/RAIN SOUTH, BUT IT WILL TRANSITION OVER
TO RAIN EVERYWHERE ON MONDAY. AN OCCLUDED FRONT WILL CROSS FROM
WEST TO EAST MONDAY NIGHT, ALLOWING THE RAIN TO TAPER TO SHOWERS,
BUT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE STATE LATER TUESDAY, FINALLY
BRINGING IN THE COLDER AIR FOR TUESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER, THE AIR
WILL POST-FRONT WILL ALSO BE MUCH DRIER, SO EXPECT THE RAIN
SHOWERS TO COME TO AN END BEFORE THEY HAVE THE CHANCE TO CHANGE
OVER TO SNOW. THE FORECAST MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME DISCREPANCIES
FOR MID WEEK, MAINLY WITH THE HANDLING OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL LIFT UP THE EAST COAST/WESTERN
ATLANTIC. THE ECMWF IS MUCH CLOSER TO THE COAST WITH THE LATTER
SYSTEM, BASICALLY BRINGING THE LOW CENTER JUST OFF THE SOUTH NOVA
SCOTIA COAST, WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE CENTER WELL TO THE EAST.
HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE POPS FOR NOW DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY.
REGARDLESS, THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN
THE START, WITH HIGHS AND LOWS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
SOME 5 TO 10 DEGREES COLDER THAN MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: POCKETS OF MVFR AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS FROM KHUL
NORTH TO KFVE THROUGH MID AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE VFR THROUGH
TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY,
BUT SOME MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE AT KFVE AND
KCAR SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING IN SNOW SHOWERS. THE NEXT
SIGNIFICANT CHANCE FOR POOR CONDITIONS ARRIVES MONDAY AS A WARM
FRONT CROSSES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. PRECIPITATION WILL START AS
SNOW IN THE NORTH/RAIN IN THE SOUTH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT, THEN
TRANSITION TO ALL RAIN DURING THE DAY MONDAY. MVFR IS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL, WITH IFR POSSIBLE IN ANY SNOW. WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL GIVE
WAY TO SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT, BUT EXPECT THE MVFR/LOCAL IFR TO
CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING DRIER AIR
AND CLEARING SKIES TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WAS EXTENDED THROUGH TONIGHT.
A FEW GUSTS TO NEAR GALE FORCE ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING
AS ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AIR HITS THE WATER TODAY. THE WIND WILL
SLOWLY DIMINISH TONIGHT...BUT GUSTS OF 25-30 KNOTS ARE LIKELY MOST
OF THE NIGHT.

SHORT TERM: A LOW-LEVEL JET OF 35-45KT WILL SET UP OVER THE
WATERS LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. EXPECT AT LEAST PART
OF THIS WILL BE ABLE TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE OWING TO THE
RELATIVELY WARM WATERS, SO WOULD ANTICIPATE AT LEAST A HIGH-END
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED, IF NOT A GALE WATCH/WARNING.
LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TRENDS CLOSELY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CB/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...HASTINGS
LONG TERM...HASTINGS
AVIATION...CB/HEWITT/HASTINGS
MARINE...CB/HEWITT/HASTINGS



000
FXUS61 KCAR 211446
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
946 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...AND THEN MOVE
EAST SUNDAY. STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS WEST OF THE REGION
MONDAY AND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
945 AM UPDATE...12Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A TROF SLIDING SE
ACROSS THE STATE. LATEST RADAR LOOP SHOWED LIGHT RETURNS W/THE OBS
INDICATING SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS(IE.KFVE). 12Z CAR RAOB SHOWED
AN UNSTABLE SOUNDING W/SB CAPE AROUND 60 AND FAIRLY STEEP LLVL
LAPSE RATE FOR EARLY WINTER. LAPS SOUNDINGS MATCH THE CAR RAOB AND
SHOW POTENTIAL FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS INTO EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS
NORTHERN AND WESTERN MAINE. THE 12KM WRF INDICATED THE POTENTIAL
FOR AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW TO SET UP ACROSS THE HUL AN MLT REGION
BACK ACROSS MT. KATAHDIN THROUGH 2 PM W/NW FLOW COMING OFF OPEN
ST. LAWRENCE INDICATING THE STREAMER POTENTIAL. ANY SNOWFALL WILL
BE MINIMAL W/A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH. STAYED W/THE MIDNIGHT
CREW`S ASSESSMENT OF GUSTS TO 35 MPH THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING THANKS TO THE LLVL LAPSE RATES.

ALOFT...A DEEP MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER NEW ENGLAND AND THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES WILL MOVE EAST TODAY. 500 MB HEIGHTS WILL
RISE SIGNIFICANTLY TONIGHT AS A FLAT RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA.

SFC...A TROUGH TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN MAINE THROUGH MID-MORNING
AND EXIT INTO NEW BRUNSWICK. STRING HIGH PRESSURE IN THE MIDWEST
WILL MOVE TO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT.

SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...TODAY WILL BE A WINDY AND COLD DAY
WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS THIS MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN
MAINE AS A TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. DRIER IN THE WAKE OF THE
TROUGH FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON
WILL NOT GET OUT OF THE 20S ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE TO NEAR 30 IN
THE BANGOR AREA. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES COMBINED WITH 925-850
MB WIND OF 25-30 KNOTS WILL MAKE FOR A WINDY DAY. EXPECT SUSTAINED
WIND SPEEDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 TO 35 MPH. THIS WILL
KEEP WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOW TEENS THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE CROWN OF MAINE WITH TEENS DOWN EAST. THE WIND WILL
SLACKEN THIS EVENING...AND WITH A MAINLY CLEAR SKY EXPECT A VERY
COLD NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTH TO TEENS ALONG THE
COAST. SOME OF THE NORMAL COLD SPOTS IN THE NW VALLEYS HAVE A
DECENT SHOT AT DROPPING BELOW ZERO...AND HAVE LOWERED TEMPS SOME
IN THE NORMAL COLD SPOTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
SATURDAY AND MOVE OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT. A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING
THROUGH THE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE SATURDAY, MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THERE`S NOT A TON OF MOISTURE WITH THIS FEATURE, SO SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATION WILL BE AN INCH OR LESS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID AND
UPPER 20S NORTH TO THE LOWER TO MID 30S SOUTH.

THE HIGH WILL SHIFT EASTWARD SATURDAY NIGHT, ALLOWING FOR WARMER AIR
TO BEGIN TO MOVE NORTHWARD ON SOUTHWEST FLOW. MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE EARLY IN THE EVENING, WITH 3-
HOURLY TEMPERATURES HOLDING STEADY OR EVEN RISING SLIGHTLY
OVERNIGHT. HAVE GONE A BIT WARMER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST
ACCORDINGLY. EXPECT WE`LL SEE SOME LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT
AS ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE REGION. THE PRECIPITATION
WILL MAINLY FALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW, WITH SOME RAIN MIXING IN ALONG
THE COAST. SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE LESS THAN AN INCH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY NOSE INTO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY,
WITH INCREASING WARM AIR ADVECTION KEEPING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS OVER MAINLY WESTERN AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE
MID AND UPPER 30S IN THE NORTH, AND THE LOWER TO MID 40 SOUTH, SO
SNOW IS EXPECTED TO AT LEAST MIX WITH RAIN, EVEN IN THE NORTHERN
REACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A BIG WARMUP IS ON TAP FOR THE START OF THE WORK WEEK. LOW
PRESSURE WILL SLIDE NORTHWARD FROM THE MIDWEST ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND INTO CENTRAL ONTARIO AND QUEBEC MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY,
LIFTING ITS WARM FRONT ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AS IT DOES SO. AS SUCH,
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE 40S AND 50S DURING THE DAY
MONDAY AND REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING RIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD FROM SOUTH TO NORTH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT,
STARTING OUT AS SNOW NORTH/RAIN SOUTH, BUT IT WILL TRANSITION OVER
TO RAIN EVERYWHERE ON MONDAY. AN OCCLUDED FRONT WILL CROSS FROM
WEST TO EAST MONDAY NIGHT, ALLOWING THE RAIN TO TAPER TO SHOWERS,
BUT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE STATE LATER TUESDAY, FINALLY
BRINGING IN THE COLDER AIR FOR TUESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER, THE AIR
WILL POST-FRONT WILL ALSO BE MUCH DRIER, SO EXPECT THE RAIN
SHOWERS TO COME TO AN END BEFORE THEY HAVE THE CHANCE TO CHANGE
OVER TO SNOW. THE FORECAST MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME DISCREPANCIES
FOR MID WEEK, MAINLY WITH THE HANDLING OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL LIFT UP THE EAST COAST/WESTERN
ATLANTIC. THE ECMWF IS MUCH CLOSER TO THE COAST WITH THE LATTER
SYSTEM, BASICALLY BRINGING THE LOW CENTER JUST OFF THE SOUTH NOVA
SCOTIA COAST, WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE CENTER WELL TO THE EAST.
HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE POPS FOR NOW DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY.
REGARDLESS, THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN
THE START, WITH HIGHS AND LOWS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
SOME 5 TO 10 DEGREES COLDER THAN MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: POCKETS OF MVFR AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS FROM KHUL
NORTH TO KFVE THROUGH MID AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE VFR THROUGH
TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY,
BUT SOME MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE AT KFVE AND
KCAR SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING IN SNOW SHOWERS. THE NEXT
SIGNIFICANT CHANCE FOR POOR CONDITIONS ARRIVES MONDAY AS A WARM
FRONT CROSSES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. PRECIPITATION WILL START AS
SNOW IN THE NORTH/RAIN IN THE SOUTH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT, THEN
TRANSITION TO ALL RAIN DURING THE DAY MONDAY. MVFR IS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL, WITH IFR POSSIBLE IN ANY SNOW. WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL GIVE
WAY TO SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT, BUT EXPECT THE MVFR/LOCAL IFR TO
CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING DRIER AIR
AND CLEARING SKIES TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WAS EXTENDED THROUGH TONIGHT.
A FEW GUSTS TO NEAR GALE FORCE ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING
AS ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AIR HITS THE WATER TODAY. THE WIND WILL
SLOWLY DIMINISH TONIGHT...BUT GUSTS OF 25-30 KNOTS ARE LIKELY MOST
OF THE NIGHT.

SHORT TERM: A LOW-LEVEL JET OF 35-45KT WILL SET UP OVER THE
WATERS LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. EXPECT AT LEAST PART
OF THIS WILL BE ABLE TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE OWING TO THE
RELATIVELY WARM WATERS, SO WOULD ANTICIPATE AT LEAST A HIGH-END
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED, IF NOT A GALE WATCH/WARNING.
LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TRENDS CLOSELY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CB/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...HASTINGS
LONG TERM...HASTINGS
AVIATION...CB/HEWITT/HASTINGS
MARINE...CB/HEWITT/HASTINGS



000
FXUS61 KCAR 211446
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
946 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...AND THEN MOVE
EAST SUNDAY. STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS WEST OF THE REGION
MONDAY AND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
945 AM UPDATE...12Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A TROF SLIDING SE
ACROSS THE STATE. LATEST RADAR LOOP SHOWED LIGHT RETURNS W/THE OBS
INDICATING SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS(IE.KFVE). 12Z CAR RAOB SHOWED
AN UNSTABLE SOUNDING W/SB CAPE AROUND 60 AND FAIRLY STEEP LLVL
LAPSE RATE FOR EARLY WINTER. LAPS SOUNDINGS MATCH THE CAR RAOB AND
SHOW POTENTIAL FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS INTO EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS
NORTHERN AND WESTERN MAINE. THE 12KM WRF INDICATED THE POTENTIAL
FOR AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW TO SET UP ACROSS THE HUL AN MLT REGION
BACK ACROSS MT. KATAHDIN THROUGH 2 PM W/NW FLOW COMING OFF OPEN
ST. LAWRENCE INDICATING THE STREAMER POTENTIAL. ANY SNOWFALL WILL
BE MINIMAL W/A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH. STAYED W/THE MIDNIGHT
CREW`S ASSESSMENT OF GUSTS TO 35 MPH THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING THANKS TO THE LLVL LAPSE RATES.

ALOFT...A DEEP MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER NEW ENGLAND AND THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES WILL MOVE EAST TODAY. 500 MB HEIGHTS WILL
RISE SIGNIFICANTLY TONIGHT AS A FLAT RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA.

SFC...A TROUGH TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN MAINE THROUGH MID-MORNING
AND EXIT INTO NEW BRUNSWICK. STRING HIGH PRESSURE IN THE MIDWEST
WILL MOVE TO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT.

SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...TODAY WILL BE A WINDY AND COLD DAY
WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS THIS MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN
MAINE AS A TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. DRIER IN THE WAKE OF THE
TROUGH FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON
WILL NOT GET OUT OF THE 20S ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE TO NEAR 30 IN
THE BANGOR AREA. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES COMBINED WITH 925-850
MB WIND OF 25-30 KNOTS WILL MAKE FOR A WINDY DAY. EXPECT SUSTAINED
WIND SPEEDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 TO 35 MPH. THIS WILL
KEEP WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOW TEENS THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE CROWN OF MAINE WITH TEENS DOWN EAST. THE WIND WILL
SLACKEN THIS EVENING...AND WITH A MAINLY CLEAR SKY EXPECT A VERY
COLD NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTH TO TEENS ALONG THE
COAST. SOME OF THE NORMAL COLD SPOTS IN THE NW VALLEYS HAVE A
DECENT SHOT AT DROPPING BELOW ZERO...AND HAVE LOWERED TEMPS SOME
IN THE NORMAL COLD SPOTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
SATURDAY AND MOVE OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT. A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING
THROUGH THE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE SATURDAY, MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THERE`S NOT A TON OF MOISTURE WITH THIS FEATURE, SO SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATION WILL BE AN INCH OR LESS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID AND
UPPER 20S NORTH TO THE LOWER TO MID 30S SOUTH.

THE HIGH WILL SHIFT EASTWARD SATURDAY NIGHT, ALLOWING FOR WARMER AIR
TO BEGIN TO MOVE NORTHWARD ON SOUTHWEST FLOW. MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE EARLY IN THE EVENING, WITH 3-
HOURLY TEMPERATURES HOLDING STEADY OR EVEN RISING SLIGHTLY
OVERNIGHT. HAVE GONE A BIT WARMER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST
ACCORDINGLY. EXPECT WE`LL SEE SOME LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT
AS ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE REGION. THE PRECIPITATION
WILL MAINLY FALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW, WITH SOME RAIN MIXING IN ALONG
THE COAST. SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE LESS THAN AN INCH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY NOSE INTO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY,
WITH INCREASING WARM AIR ADVECTION KEEPING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS OVER MAINLY WESTERN AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE
MID AND UPPER 30S IN THE NORTH, AND THE LOWER TO MID 40 SOUTH, SO
SNOW IS EXPECTED TO AT LEAST MIX WITH RAIN, EVEN IN THE NORTHERN
REACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A BIG WARMUP IS ON TAP FOR THE START OF THE WORK WEEK. LOW
PRESSURE WILL SLIDE NORTHWARD FROM THE MIDWEST ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND INTO CENTRAL ONTARIO AND QUEBEC MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY,
LIFTING ITS WARM FRONT ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AS IT DOES SO. AS SUCH,
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE 40S AND 50S DURING THE DAY
MONDAY AND REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING RIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD FROM SOUTH TO NORTH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT,
STARTING OUT AS SNOW NORTH/RAIN SOUTH, BUT IT WILL TRANSITION OVER
TO RAIN EVERYWHERE ON MONDAY. AN OCCLUDED FRONT WILL CROSS FROM
WEST TO EAST MONDAY NIGHT, ALLOWING THE RAIN TO TAPER TO SHOWERS,
BUT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE STATE LATER TUESDAY, FINALLY
BRINGING IN THE COLDER AIR FOR TUESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER, THE AIR
WILL POST-FRONT WILL ALSO BE MUCH DRIER, SO EXPECT THE RAIN
SHOWERS TO COME TO AN END BEFORE THEY HAVE THE CHANCE TO CHANGE
OVER TO SNOW. THE FORECAST MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME DISCREPANCIES
FOR MID WEEK, MAINLY WITH THE HANDLING OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL LIFT UP THE EAST COAST/WESTERN
ATLANTIC. THE ECMWF IS MUCH CLOSER TO THE COAST WITH THE LATTER
SYSTEM, BASICALLY BRINGING THE LOW CENTER JUST OFF THE SOUTH NOVA
SCOTIA COAST, WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE CENTER WELL TO THE EAST.
HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE POPS FOR NOW DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY.
REGARDLESS, THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN
THE START, WITH HIGHS AND LOWS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
SOME 5 TO 10 DEGREES COLDER THAN MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: POCKETS OF MVFR AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS FROM KHUL
NORTH TO KFVE THROUGH MID AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE VFR THROUGH
TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY,
BUT SOME MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE AT KFVE AND
KCAR SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING IN SNOW SHOWERS. THE NEXT
SIGNIFICANT CHANCE FOR POOR CONDITIONS ARRIVES MONDAY AS A WARM
FRONT CROSSES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. PRECIPITATION WILL START AS
SNOW IN THE NORTH/RAIN IN THE SOUTH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT, THEN
TRANSITION TO ALL RAIN DURING THE DAY MONDAY. MVFR IS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL, WITH IFR POSSIBLE IN ANY SNOW. WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL GIVE
WAY TO SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT, BUT EXPECT THE MVFR/LOCAL IFR TO
CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING DRIER AIR
AND CLEARING SKIES TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WAS EXTENDED THROUGH TONIGHT.
A FEW GUSTS TO NEAR GALE FORCE ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING
AS ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AIR HITS THE WATER TODAY. THE WIND WILL
SLOWLY DIMINISH TONIGHT...BUT GUSTS OF 25-30 KNOTS ARE LIKELY MOST
OF THE NIGHT.

SHORT TERM: A LOW-LEVEL JET OF 35-45KT WILL SET UP OVER THE
WATERS LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. EXPECT AT LEAST PART
OF THIS WILL BE ABLE TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE OWING TO THE
RELATIVELY WARM WATERS, SO WOULD ANTICIPATE AT LEAST A HIGH-END
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED, IF NOT A GALE WATCH/WARNING.
LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TRENDS CLOSELY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CB/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...HASTINGS
LONG TERM...HASTINGS
AVIATION...CB/HEWITT/HASTINGS
MARINE...CB/HEWITT/HASTINGS



000
FXUS61 KGYX 211431
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
931 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING FOLLOWED
BY A BLUSTERY NORTHWEST WIND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE
SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE SOUTHWEST MONDAY MORNING AND LIFTS NORTHEAST BY MONDAY
NIGHT. A COLD FRONT ATTEMPTS TO MOVE SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY
MORNING. LOW PRESSURE PASSES BY WELL OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY AND
THANKSGIVING DAY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE NORTH FRIDAY
DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
900AM UPDATE.... FORECAST IS ON TRACK AS COLD AIR IS MOVING INTO
THE REGION. INCREASED POPS IN THE MOUNTAINS WHERE UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING. MORNING KGYX SOUNDING
SHOWS GOOD POTENTIAL FOR WIND GUSTS TO MIX OUT TO THE 30MPH
RANGE... WITH HIGHEST GUSTS NEAR THE COAST.

PREV DISC...
AT 07Z...AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WAS DRAPED ALONG THE SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY. THE FRONT WILL RACE SOUTHEAST AND OFFSHORE THIS MORNING.
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WE`LL SEE CLOUDS AND A FEW SNOW SHOWERS
WITH ITS PASSAGE AND A FEW UPSLOPE CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS IN ITS
WAKE. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE TEENS IN THE MOUNTAINS TO
LOWER 30S AT THE COAST...BUT THE BLUSTERY NORTHWEST WIND WILL MAKE
IT FEEL A GOOD TEN TO FIFTEEN DEGREES COLDER THEN THAT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
OUTSIDE OF A FEW CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS...IT`LL BE MAINLY
CLEAR AND COLD AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BY TO OUR SOUTH.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS AND TEENS...WITH A FEW
20 DEGREE READINGS CONFINED TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST. ON
SATURDAY...A SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS
OFFSHORE WITH CLOUDS GRADUALLY INCREASING IN DEVELOPING WARM AIR
ADVECTION PATTERN. EXPECT ANY LATE DAY SNOW SHOWERS TO BE CONFINED
TO NORTHERN SECTIONS. HIGHS SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SOMEWHAT QUIET BUT CHANGEABLE PERIOD OF WEATHER ON TAP FOR THE
EXTENDED INCLUDING THANKSGIVING. OVERALL UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING
REMAINS IN PLACE...BUT VARIOUS SHORT WAVES AND A PERIOD OF RIDGING
MAKE FOR A FEW DETAILS TO NOTE.

WE WILL SEE A NICE WARM UP SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS THIS
MERIDIONAL PATTERN BUCKLES AND RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN
SEABOARD IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS.
PROMINENT SHORT WAVE ROTATING THROUGH THE TROUGH WILL PROMPT A
WARM FRONT TO LIFT THROUGH NEW ENGLAND MONDAY SPREADING MOSTLY
RAIN ACROSS THE AREA. SOME OF THE COOLER LOCATIONS EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING MAY HAVE A WINTRY MIX AT THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION.
LIKEWISE...VERY EARLY MONDAY MORNING FREEZING RAIN MAY BE THE
PRECIPITATION TYPE FOR A FEW NORTHERN LOCATIONS AS SURFACE
TEMPERATURES DROP BELOW FREEZING.

PRECIPITATION BECOMES SHOWERY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE
REGION...LIKELY CLEARING THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING.
AS TEMPERATURES DROP LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL DOMINATE IN UPSLOPE
AREAS. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS CLEAR OUT ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN AS
WINDS BECOME NW WEDNESDAY AND THANKSGIVING DAY. OCEAN LOW
PRESSURE PASSES WELL OUTSIDE THE BENCHMARK WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
MOVES INTO THE MARITIMES THANKSGIVING DAY. THIS WILL HAVE SOME
IMPACT BY KEEPING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN JUST OFF THE COAST AND
TO STRENGTHEN DOWNSLOPE PROCESSES. THANKSGIVING DAY LOOKS COOL
WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 30S NORTH TO UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S
SOUTH AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND OVER THE
MIDCOAST.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...HIE WILL SEE MVFR AT TIMES IN
SNOW SHOWERS THIS MORNING. ELSEWHERE CEILINGS WILL BE VFR WITH NW
WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...PERIODS OF MVFR AND IFR LIKELY IN RAIN AND SNOW
MONDAY. MOUNTAIN TERMINALS WILL SEE A CHANCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY IN INTERMITTENT SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...IT`S LIKELY WILL SEE GUSTS TO
MINIMAL GALE OUTSIDE THE BAYS TODAY WITH PASSAGE OF THE ARCTIC
FRONT...AND A GALE HAS BEEN POSTED FOR AREAS OUTSIDE THE BAYS.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM...SCA NEEDED SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING IN
STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WINDS...AND AGAIN MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ151-
     153.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CEMPA/CURTIS
NEAR TERM...CURTIS
SHORT TERM...CURTIS
LONG TERM...CEMPA
AVIATION...CEMPA/CURTIS
MARINE...CEMPA/CURTIS




000
FXUS61 KGYX 211431
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
931 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING FOLLOWED
BY A BLUSTERY NORTHWEST WIND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE
SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE SOUTHWEST MONDAY MORNING AND LIFTS NORTHEAST BY MONDAY
NIGHT. A COLD FRONT ATTEMPTS TO MOVE SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY
MORNING. LOW PRESSURE PASSES BY WELL OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY AND
THANKSGIVING DAY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE NORTH FRIDAY
DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
900AM UPDATE.... FORECAST IS ON TRACK AS COLD AIR IS MOVING INTO
THE REGION. INCREASED POPS IN THE MOUNTAINS WHERE UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING. MORNING KGYX SOUNDING
SHOWS GOOD POTENTIAL FOR WIND GUSTS TO MIX OUT TO THE 30MPH
RANGE... WITH HIGHEST GUSTS NEAR THE COAST.

PREV DISC...
AT 07Z...AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WAS DRAPED ALONG THE SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY. THE FRONT WILL RACE SOUTHEAST AND OFFSHORE THIS MORNING.
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WE`LL SEE CLOUDS AND A FEW SNOW SHOWERS
WITH ITS PASSAGE AND A FEW UPSLOPE CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS IN ITS
WAKE. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE TEENS IN THE MOUNTAINS TO
LOWER 30S AT THE COAST...BUT THE BLUSTERY NORTHWEST WIND WILL MAKE
IT FEEL A GOOD TEN TO FIFTEEN DEGREES COLDER THEN THAT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
OUTSIDE OF A FEW CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS...IT`LL BE MAINLY
CLEAR AND COLD AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BY TO OUR SOUTH.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS AND TEENS...WITH A FEW
20 DEGREE READINGS CONFINED TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST. ON
SATURDAY...A SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS
OFFSHORE WITH CLOUDS GRADUALLY INCREASING IN DEVELOPING WARM AIR
ADVECTION PATTERN. EXPECT ANY LATE DAY SNOW SHOWERS TO BE CONFINED
TO NORTHERN SECTIONS. HIGHS SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SOMEWHAT QUIET BUT CHANGEABLE PERIOD OF WEATHER ON TAP FOR THE
EXTENDED INCLUDING THANKSGIVING. OVERALL UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING
REMAINS IN PLACE...BUT VARIOUS SHORT WAVES AND A PERIOD OF RIDGING
MAKE FOR A FEW DETAILS TO NOTE.

WE WILL SEE A NICE WARM UP SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS THIS
MERIDIONAL PATTERN BUCKLES AND RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN
SEABOARD IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS.
PROMINENT SHORT WAVE ROTATING THROUGH THE TROUGH WILL PROMPT A
WARM FRONT TO LIFT THROUGH NEW ENGLAND MONDAY SPREADING MOSTLY
RAIN ACROSS THE AREA. SOME OF THE COOLER LOCATIONS EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING MAY HAVE A WINTRY MIX AT THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION.
LIKEWISE...VERY EARLY MONDAY MORNING FREEZING RAIN MAY BE THE
PRECIPITATION TYPE FOR A FEW NORTHERN LOCATIONS AS SURFACE
TEMPERATURES DROP BELOW FREEZING.

PRECIPITATION BECOMES SHOWERY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE
REGION...LIKELY CLEARING THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING.
AS TEMPERATURES DROP LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL DOMINATE IN UPSLOPE
AREAS. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS CLEAR OUT ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN AS
WINDS BECOME NW WEDNESDAY AND THANKSGIVING DAY. OCEAN LOW
PRESSURE PASSES WELL OUTSIDE THE BENCHMARK WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
MOVES INTO THE MARITIMES THANKSGIVING DAY. THIS WILL HAVE SOME
IMPACT BY KEEPING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN JUST OFF THE COAST AND
TO STRENGTHEN DOWNSLOPE PROCESSES. THANKSGIVING DAY LOOKS COOL
WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 30S NORTH TO UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S
SOUTH AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND OVER THE
MIDCOAST.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...HIE WILL SEE MVFR AT TIMES IN
SNOW SHOWERS THIS MORNING. ELSEWHERE CEILINGS WILL BE VFR WITH NW
WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...PERIODS OF MVFR AND IFR LIKELY IN RAIN AND SNOW
MONDAY. MOUNTAIN TERMINALS WILL SEE A CHANCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY IN INTERMITTENT SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...IT`S LIKELY WILL SEE GUSTS TO
MINIMAL GALE OUTSIDE THE BAYS TODAY WITH PASSAGE OF THE ARCTIC
FRONT...AND A GALE HAS BEEN POSTED FOR AREAS OUTSIDE THE BAYS.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM...SCA NEEDED SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING IN
STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WINDS...AND AGAIN MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ151-
     153.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CEMPA/CURTIS
NEAR TERM...CURTIS
SHORT TERM...CURTIS
LONG TERM...CEMPA
AVIATION...CEMPA/CURTIS
MARINE...CEMPA/CURTIS



000
FXUS61 KCAR 211119
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
619 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...AND
THEN MOVE EAST SUNDAY. STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS WEST OF THE
REGION MONDAY AND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
619 AM UPDATE...THE FINAL SURGE OF COLD AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA TODAY AS A COLD FRONT QUICKLY CROSSES THE AREA THIS MORNING.
SOME CLOUDS HAVE MOVED OFF THE ST LAWRENCE AND INTO PARTS OF
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MAINE. A FEW SPOTS WILL SEE A SNOW SHOWER
THIS MORNING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. A NW WIND WILL
PICK UP THIS MORNING DUE TO A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STEEP
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. GUSTS TO 35 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM MID-
LATE MORNING UNTIL EARLY THIS EVENING WHICH WILL ADD TO THE CHILL.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE MORE TYPICAL OF MID-DECEMBER. MINOR
UPDATE TO THE HOURLY GRIDS FOR THIS MORNING BASED ON THE LATEST
OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE PICTURES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
ALOFT...A DEEP MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER NEW ENGLAND AND THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES WILL MOVE EAST TODAY. 500 MB HEIGHTS WILL
RISE SIGNIFICANTLY TONIGHT AS A FLAT RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA.

SFC...A TROUGH TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN MAINE THROUGH MID-MORNING
AND EXIT INTO NEW BRUNSWICK. STRING HIGH PRESSURE IN THE MIDWEST
WILL MOVE TO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT.

SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...TODAY WILL BE A WINDY AND COLD DAY
WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS THIS MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN
MAINE AS A TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. DRIER IN THE WAKE OF THE
TROUGH FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON
WILL NOT GET OUT OF THE 20S ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE TO NEAR 30 IN
THE BANGOR AREA. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES COMBINED WITH 925-850
MB WIND OF 25-30 KNOTS WILL MAKE FOR A WINDY DAY. EXPECT SUSTAINED
WIND SPEEDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 TO 35 MPH. THIS WILL
KEEP WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOW TEENS THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE CROWN OF MAINE WITH TEENS DOWN EAST. THE WIND WILL
SLACKEN THIS EVENING...AND WITH A MAINLY CLEAR SKY EXPECT A VERY
COLD NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTH TO TEENS ALONG THE
COAST. SOME OF THE NORMAL COLD SPOTS IN THE NW VALLEYS HAVE A
DECENT SHOT AT DROPPING BELOW ZERO...AND HAVE LOWERED TEMPS SOME
IN THE NORMAL COLD SPOTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
SATURDAY AND MOVE OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT. A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING
THROUGH THE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE SATURDAY, MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THERE`S NOT A TON OF MOISTURE WITH THIS FEATURE, SO SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATION WILL BE AN INCH OR LESS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID AND
UPPER 20S NORTH TO THE LOWER TO MID 30S SOUTH.

THE HIGH WILL SHIFT EASTWARD SATURDAY NIGHT, ALLOWING FOR WARMER AIR
TO BEGIN TO MOVE NORTHWARD ON SOUTHWEST FLOW. MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE EARLY IN THE EVENING, WITH 3-
HOURLY TEMPERATURES HOLDING STEADY OR EVEN RISING SLIGHTLY
OVERNIGHT. HAVE GONE A BIT WARMER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST
ACCORDINGLY. EXPECT WE`LL SEE SOME LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT
AS ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE REGION. THE PRECIPITATION
WILL MAINLY FALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW, WITH SOME RAIN MIXING IN ALONG
THE COAST. SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE LESS THAN AN INCH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY NOSE INTO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY,
WITH INCREASING WARM AIR ADVECTION KEEPING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS OVER MAINLY WESTERN AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE
MID AND UPPER 30S IN THE NORTH, AND THE LOWER TO MID 40 SOUTH, SO
SNOW IS EXPECTED TO AT LEAST MIX WITH RAIN, EVEN IN THE NORTHERN
REACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A BIG WARMUP IS ON TAP FOR THE START OF THE WORK WEEK. LOW
PRESSURE WILL SLIDE NORTHWARD FROM THE MIDWEST ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND INTO CENTRAL ONTARIO AND QUEBEC MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY,
LIFTING ITS WARM FRONT ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AS IT DOES SO. AS SUCH,
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE 40S AND 50S DURING THE DAY
MONDAY AND REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING RIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD FROM SOUTH TO NORTH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT,
STARTING OUT AS SNOW NORTH/RAIN SOUTH, BUT IT WILL TRANSITION OVER
TO RAIN EVERYWHERE ON MONDAY. AN OCCLUDED FRONT WILL CROSS FROM
WEST TO EAST MONDAY NIGHT, ALLOWING THE RAIN TO TAPER TO SHOWERS,
BUT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE STATE LATER TUESDAY, FINALLY
BRINGING IN THE COLDER AIR FOR TUESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER, THE AIR
WILL POST-FRONT WILL ALSO BE MUCH DRIER, SO EXPECT THE RAIN
SHOWERS TO COME TO AN END BEFORE THEY HAVE THE CHANCE TO CHANGE
OVER TO SNOW. THE FORECAST MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME DISCREPANCIES
FOR MID WEEK, MAINLY WITH THE HANDLING OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL LIFT UP THE EAST COAST/WESTERN
ATLANTIC. THE ECMWF IS MUCH CLOSER TO THE COAST WITH THE LATTER
SYSTEM, BASICALLY BRINGING THE LOW CENTER JUST OFF THE SOUTH NOVA
SCOTIA COAST, WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE CENTER WELL TO THE EAST.
HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE POPS FOR NOW DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY.
REGARDLESS, THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN
THE START, WITH HIGHS AND LOWS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
SOME 5 TO 10 DEGREES COLDER THAN MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: POCKETS OF MVFR AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS FROM KHUL
NORTH TO KFVE THROUGH MID AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE VFR THROUGH
TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY,
BUT SOME MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE AT KFVE AND
KCAR SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING IN SNOW SHOWERS. THE NEXT
SIGNIFICANT CHANCE FOR POOR CONDITIONS ARRIVES MONDAY AS A WARM
FRONT CROSSES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. PRECIPITATION WILL START AS
SNOW IN THE NORTH/RAIN IN THE SOUTH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT, THEN
TRANSITION TO ALL RAIN DURING THE DAY MONDAY. MVFR IS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL, WITH IFR POSSIBLE IN ANY SNOW. WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL GIVE
WAY TO SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT, BUT EXPECT THE MVFR/LOCAL IFR TO
CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING DRIER AIR
AND CLEARING SKIES TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WAS EXTENDED THROUGH TONIGHT.
A FEW GUSTS TO NEAR GALE FORCE ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING
AS ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AIR HITS THE WATER TODAY. THE WIND WILL
SLOWLY DIMINISH TONIGHT...BUT GUSTS OF 25-30 KNOTS ARE LIKELY MOST
OF THE NIGHT.

SHORT TERM: A LOW-LEVEL JET OF 35-45KT WILL SET UP OVER THE
WATERS LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. EXPECT AT LEAST PART
OF THIS WILL BE ABLE TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE OWING TO THE
RELATIVELY WARM WATERS, SO WOULD ANTICIPATE AT LEAST A HIGH-END
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED, IF NOT A GALE WATCH/WARNING.
LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TRENDS CLOSELY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CB
SHORT TERM...HASTINGS
LONG TERM...HASTINGS
AVIATION...CB/HASTINGS
MARINE...CB/HASTINGS



000
FXUS61 KCAR 211119
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
619 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...AND
THEN MOVE EAST SUNDAY. STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS WEST OF THE
REGION MONDAY AND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
619 AM UPDATE...THE FINAL SURGE OF COLD AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA TODAY AS A COLD FRONT QUICKLY CROSSES THE AREA THIS MORNING.
SOME CLOUDS HAVE MOVED OFF THE ST LAWRENCE AND INTO PARTS OF
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MAINE. A FEW SPOTS WILL SEE A SNOW SHOWER
THIS MORNING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. A NW WIND WILL
PICK UP THIS MORNING DUE TO A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STEEP
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. GUSTS TO 35 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM MID-
LATE MORNING UNTIL EARLY THIS EVENING WHICH WILL ADD TO THE CHILL.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE MORE TYPICAL OF MID-DECEMBER. MINOR
UPDATE TO THE HOURLY GRIDS FOR THIS MORNING BASED ON THE LATEST
OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE PICTURES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
ALOFT...A DEEP MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER NEW ENGLAND AND THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES WILL MOVE EAST TODAY. 500 MB HEIGHTS WILL
RISE SIGNIFICANTLY TONIGHT AS A FLAT RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA.

SFC...A TROUGH TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN MAINE THROUGH MID-MORNING
AND EXIT INTO NEW BRUNSWICK. STRING HIGH PRESSURE IN THE MIDWEST
WILL MOVE TO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT.

SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...TODAY WILL BE A WINDY AND COLD DAY
WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS THIS MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN
MAINE AS A TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. DRIER IN THE WAKE OF THE
TROUGH FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON
WILL NOT GET OUT OF THE 20S ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE TO NEAR 30 IN
THE BANGOR AREA. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES COMBINED WITH 925-850
MB WIND OF 25-30 KNOTS WILL MAKE FOR A WINDY DAY. EXPECT SUSTAINED
WIND SPEEDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 TO 35 MPH. THIS WILL
KEEP WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOW TEENS THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE CROWN OF MAINE WITH TEENS DOWN EAST. THE WIND WILL
SLACKEN THIS EVENING...AND WITH A MAINLY CLEAR SKY EXPECT A VERY
COLD NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTH TO TEENS ALONG THE
COAST. SOME OF THE NORMAL COLD SPOTS IN THE NW VALLEYS HAVE A
DECENT SHOT AT DROPPING BELOW ZERO...AND HAVE LOWERED TEMPS SOME
IN THE NORMAL COLD SPOTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
SATURDAY AND MOVE OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT. A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING
THROUGH THE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE SATURDAY, MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THERE`S NOT A TON OF MOISTURE WITH THIS FEATURE, SO SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATION WILL BE AN INCH OR LESS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID AND
UPPER 20S NORTH TO THE LOWER TO MID 30S SOUTH.

THE HIGH WILL SHIFT EASTWARD SATURDAY NIGHT, ALLOWING FOR WARMER AIR
TO BEGIN TO MOVE NORTHWARD ON SOUTHWEST FLOW. MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE EARLY IN THE EVENING, WITH 3-
HOURLY TEMPERATURES HOLDING STEADY OR EVEN RISING SLIGHTLY
OVERNIGHT. HAVE GONE A BIT WARMER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST
ACCORDINGLY. EXPECT WE`LL SEE SOME LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT
AS ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE REGION. THE PRECIPITATION
WILL MAINLY FALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW, WITH SOME RAIN MIXING IN ALONG
THE COAST. SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE LESS THAN AN INCH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY NOSE INTO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY,
WITH INCREASING WARM AIR ADVECTION KEEPING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS OVER MAINLY WESTERN AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE
MID AND UPPER 30S IN THE NORTH, AND THE LOWER TO MID 40 SOUTH, SO
SNOW IS EXPECTED TO AT LEAST MIX WITH RAIN, EVEN IN THE NORTHERN
REACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A BIG WARMUP IS ON TAP FOR THE START OF THE WORK WEEK. LOW
PRESSURE WILL SLIDE NORTHWARD FROM THE MIDWEST ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND INTO CENTRAL ONTARIO AND QUEBEC MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY,
LIFTING ITS WARM FRONT ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AS IT DOES SO. AS SUCH,
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE 40S AND 50S DURING THE DAY
MONDAY AND REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING RIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD FROM SOUTH TO NORTH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT,
STARTING OUT AS SNOW NORTH/RAIN SOUTH, BUT IT WILL TRANSITION OVER
TO RAIN EVERYWHERE ON MONDAY. AN OCCLUDED FRONT WILL CROSS FROM
WEST TO EAST MONDAY NIGHT, ALLOWING THE RAIN TO TAPER TO SHOWERS,
BUT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE STATE LATER TUESDAY, FINALLY
BRINGING IN THE COLDER AIR FOR TUESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER, THE AIR
WILL POST-FRONT WILL ALSO BE MUCH DRIER, SO EXPECT THE RAIN
SHOWERS TO COME TO AN END BEFORE THEY HAVE THE CHANCE TO CHANGE
OVER TO SNOW. THE FORECAST MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME DISCREPANCIES
FOR MID WEEK, MAINLY WITH THE HANDLING OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL LIFT UP THE EAST COAST/WESTERN
ATLANTIC. THE ECMWF IS MUCH CLOSER TO THE COAST WITH THE LATTER
SYSTEM, BASICALLY BRINGING THE LOW CENTER JUST OFF THE SOUTH NOVA
SCOTIA COAST, WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE CENTER WELL TO THE EAST.
HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE POPS FOR NOW DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY.
REGARDLESS, THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN
THE START, WITH HIGHS AND LOWS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
SOME 5 TO 10 DEGREES COLDER THAN MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: POCKETS OF MVFR AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS FROM KHUL
NORTH TO KFVE THROUGH MID AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE VFR THROUGH
TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY,
BUT SOME MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE AT KFVE AND
KCAR SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING IN SNOW SHOWERS. THE NEXT
SIGNIFICANT CHANCE FOR POOR CONDITIONS ARRIVES MONDAY AS A WARM
FRONT CROSSES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. PRECIPITATION WILL START AS
SNOW IN THE NORTH/RAIN IN THE SOUTH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT, THEN
TRANSITION TO ALL RAIN DURING THE DAY MONDAY. MVFR IS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL, WITH IFR POSSIBLE IN ANY SNOW. WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL GIVE
WAY TO SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT, BUT EXPECT THE MVFR/LOCAL IFR TO
CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING DRIER AIR
AND CLEARING SKIES TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WAS EXTENDED THROUGH TONIGHT.
A FEW GUSTS TO NEAR GALE FORCE ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING
AS ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AIR HITS THE WATER TODAY. THE WIND WILL
SLOWLY DIMINISH TONIGHT...BUT GUSTS OF 25-30 KNOTS ARE LIKELY MOST
OF THE NIGHT.

SHORT TERM: A LOW-LEVEL JET OF 35-45KT WILL SET UP OVER THE
WATERS LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. EXPECT AT LEAST PART
OF THIS WILL BE ABLE TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE OWING TO THE
RELATIVELY WARM WATERS, SO WOULD ANTICIPATE AT LEAST A HIGH-END
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED, IF NOT A GALE WATCH/WARNING.
LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TRENDS CLOSELY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CB
SHORT TERM...HASTINGS
LONG TERM...HASTINGS
AVIATION...CB/HASTINGS
MARINE...CB/HASTINGS




000
FXUS61 KGYX 211113
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
613 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING FOLLOWED
BY A BLUSTERY NORTHWEST WIND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE
SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE SOUTHWEST MONDAY MORNING AND LIFTS NORTHEAST BY MONDAY
NIGHT. A COLD FRONT ATTEMPTS TO MOVE SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY
MORNING. LOW PRESSURE PASSES BY WELL OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY AND
THANKSGIVING DAY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE NORTH FRIDAY
DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

605 AM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO INGEST THE CURRENT MESONET IN 1ST
PERIOD GRIDS.

PREV DISC...
AT 07Z...AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WAS DRAPED ALONG THE SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY. THE FRONT WILL RACE SOUTHEAST AND OFFSHORE THIS MORNING.
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WE`LL SEE CLOUDS AND A FEW SNOW SHOWERS
WITH ITS PASSAGE AND A FEW UPSLOPE CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS IN ITS
WAKE. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE TEENS IN THE MOUNTAINS TO
LOWER 30S AT THE COAST...BUT THE BLUSTERY NORTHWEST WIND WILL MAKE
IT FEEL A GOOD TEN TO FIFTEEN DEGREES COLDER THEN THAT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
OUTSIDE OF A FEW CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS...IT`LL BE MAINLY
CLEAR AND COLD AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BY TO OUR SOUTH.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS AND TEENS...WITH A FEW
20 DEGREE READINGS CONFINED TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST. ON
SATURDAY...A SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS
OFFSHORE WITH CLOUDS GRADUALLY INCREASING IN DEVELOPING WARM AIR
ADVECTION PATTERN. EXPECT ANY LATE DAY SNOW SHOWERS TO BE CONFINED
TO NORTHERN SECTIONS. HIGHS SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SOMEWHAT QUIET BUT CHANGEABLE PERIOD OF WEATHER ON TAP FOR THE
EXTENDED INCLUDING THANKSGIVING. OVERALL UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING
REMAINS IN PLACE...BUT VARIOUS SHORT WAVES AND A PERIOD OF RIDGING
MAKE FOR A FEW DETAILS TO NOTE.

WE WILL SEE A NICE WARM UP SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS THIS
MERIDIONAL PATTERN BUCKLES AND RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN
SEABOARD IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS.
PROMINENT SHORT WAVE ROTATING THROUGH THE TROUGH WILL PROMPT A
WARM FRONT TO LIFT THROUGH NEW ENGLAND MONDAY SPREADING MOSTLY
RAIN ACROSS THE AREA. SOME OF THE COOLER LOCATIONS EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING MAY HAVE A WINTRY MIX AT THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION.
LIKEWISE...VERY EARLY MONDAY MORNING FREEZING RAIN MAY BE THE
PRECIPITATION TYPE FOR A FEW NORTHERN LOCATIONS AS SURFACE
TEMPERATURES DROP BELOW FREEZING.

PRECIPITATION BECOMES SHOWERY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE
REGION...LIKELY CLEARING THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING.
AS TEMPERATURES DROP LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL DOMINATE IN UPSLOPE
AREAS. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS CLEAR OUT ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN AS
WINDS BECOME NW WEDNESDAY AND THANKSGIVING DAY. OCEAN LOW
PRESSURE PASSES WELL OUTSIDE THE BENCHMARK WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
MOVES INTO THE MARITIMES THANKSGIVING DAY. THIS WILL HAVE SOME
IMPACT BY KEEPING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN JUST OFF THE COAST AND
TO STRENGTHEN DOWNSLOPE PROCESSES. THANKSGIVING DAY LOOKS COOL
WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 30S NORTH TO UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S
SOUTH AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND OVER THE
MIDCOAST.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...HIE WILL SEE MVFR AT TIMES IN
SNOW SHOWERS THIS MORNING. ELSEWHERE CEILINGS WILL BE VFR WITH NW
WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...PERIODS OF MVFR AND IFR LIKELY IN RAIN AND SNOW
MONDAY. MOUNTAIN TERMINALS WILL SEE A CHANCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY IN INTERMITTENT SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...IT`S LIKELY WILL SEE GUSTS TO
MINIMAL GALE OUTSIDE THE BAYS TODAY WITH PASSAGE OF THE ARCTIC
FRONT...AND A GALE HAS BEEN POSTED FOR AREAS OUTSIDE THE BAYS.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM...SCA NEEDED SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING IN
STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WINDS...AND AGAIN MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ151-
     153.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
ES




000
FXUS61 KGYX 211113
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
613 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING FOLLOWED
BY A BLUSTERY NORTHWEST WIND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE
SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE SOUTHWEST MONDAY MORNING AND LIFTS NORTHEAST BY MONDAY
NIGHT. A COLD FRONT ATTEMPTS TO MOVE SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY
MORNING. LOW PRESSURE PASSES BY WELL OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY AND
THANKSGIVING DAY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE NORTH FRIDAY
DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

605 AM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO INGEST THE CURRENT MESONET IN 1ST
PERIOD GRIDS.

PREV DISC...
AT 07Z...AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WAS DRAPED ALONG THE SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY. THE FRONT WILL RACE SOUTHEAST AND OFFSHORE THIS MORNING.
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WE`LL SEE CLOUDS AND A FEW SNOW SHOWERS
WITH ITS PASSAGE AND A FEW UPSLOPE CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS IN ITS
WAKE. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE TEENS IN THE MOUNTAINS TO
LOWER 30S AT THE COAST...BUT THE BLUSTERY NORTHWEST WIND WILL MAKE
IT FEEL A GOOD TEN TO FIFTEEN DEGREES COLDER THEN THAT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
OUTSIDE OF A FEW CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS...IT`LL BE MAINLY
CLEAR AND COLD AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BY TO OUR SOUTH.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS AND TEENS...WITH A FEW
20 DEGREE READINGS CONFINED TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST. ON
SATURDAY...A SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS
OFFSHORE WITH CLOUDS GRADUALLY INCREASING IN DEVELOPING WARM AIR
ADVECTION PATTERN. EXPECT ANY LATE DAY SNOW SHOWERS TO BE CONFINED
TO NORTHERN SECTIONS. HIGHS SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SOMEWHAT QUIET BUT CHANGEABLE PERIOD OF WEATHER ON TAP FOR THE
EXTENDED INCLUDING THANKSGIVING. OVERALL UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING
REMAINS IN PLACE...BUT VARIOUS SHORT WAVES AND A PERIOD OF RIDGING
MAKE FOR A FEW DETAILS TO NOTE.

WE WILL SEE A NICE WARM UP SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS THIS
MERIDIONAL PATTERN BUCKLES AND RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN
SEABOARD IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS.
PROMINENT SHORT WAVE ROTATING THROUGH THE TROUGH WILL PROMPT A
WARM FRONT TO LIFT THROUGH NEW ENGLAND MONDAY SPREADING MOSTLY
RAIN ACROSS THE AREA. SOME OF THE COOLER LOCATIONS EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING MAY HAVE A WINTRY MIX AT THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION.
LIKEWISE...VERY EARLY MONDAY MORNING FREEZING RAIN MAY BE THE
PRECIPITATION TYPE FOR A FEW NORTHERN LOCATIONS AS SURFACE
TEMPERATURES DROP BELOW FREEZING.

PRECIPITATION BECOMES SHOWERY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE
REGION...LIKELY CLEARING THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING.
AS TEMPERATURES DROP LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL DOMINATE IN UPSLOPE
AREAS. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS CLEAR OUT ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN AS
WINDS BECOME NW WEDNESDAY AND THANKSGIVING DAY. OCEAN LOW
PRESSURE PASSES WELL OUTSIDE THE BENCHMARK WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
MOVES INTO THE MARITIMES THANKSGIVING DAY. THIS WILL HAVE SOME
IMPACT BY KEEPING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN JUST OFF THE COAST AND
TO STRENGTHEN DOWNSLOPE PROCESSES. THANKSGIVING DAY LOOKS COOL
WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 30S NORTH TO UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S
SOUTH AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND OVER THE
MIDCOAST.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...HIE WILL SEE MVFR AT TIMES IN
SNOW SHOWERS THIS MORNING. ELSEWHERE CEILINGS WILL BE VFR WITH NW
WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...PERIODS OF MVFR AND IFR LIKELY IN RAIN AND SNOW
MONDAY. MOUNTAIN TERMINALS WILL SEE A CHANCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY IN INTERMITTENT SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...IT`S LIKELY WILL SEE GUSTS TO
MINIMAL GALE OUTSIDE THE BAYS TODAY WITH PASSAGE OF THE ARCTIC
FRONT...AND A GALE HAS BEEN POSTED FOR AREAS OUTSIDE THE BAYS.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM...SCA NEEDED SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING IN
STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WINDS...AND AGAIN MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ151-
     153.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
ES




000
FXUS61 KGYX 211113
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
613 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING FOLLOWED
BY A BLUSTERY NORTHWEST WIND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE
SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE SOUTHWEST MONDAY MORNING AND LIFTS NORTHEAST BY MONDAY
NIGHT. A COLD FRONT ATTEMPTS TO MOVE SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY
MORNING. LOW PRESSURE PASSES BY WELL OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY AND
THANKSGIVING DAY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE NORTH FRIDAY
DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

605 AM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO INGEST THE CURRENT MESONET IN 1ST
PERIOD GRIDS.

PREV DISC...
AT 07Z...AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WAS DRAPED ALONG THE SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY. THE FRONT WILL RACE SOUTHEAST AND OFFSHORE THIS MORNING.
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WE`LL SEE CLOUDS AND A FEW SNOW SHOWERS
WITH ITS PASSAGE AND A FEW UPSLOPE CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS IN ITS
WAKE. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE TEENS IN THE MOUNTAINS TO
LOWER 30S AT THE COAST...BUT THE BLUSTERY NORTHWEST WIND WILL MAKE
IT FEEL A GOOD TEN TO FIFTEEN DEGREES COLDER THEN THAT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
OUTSIDE OF A FEW CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS...IT`LL BE MAINLY
CLEAR AND COLD AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BY TO OUR SOUTH.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS AND TEENS...WITH A FEW
20 DEGREE READINGS CONFINED TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST. ON
SATURDAY...A SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS
OFFSHORE WITH CLOUDS GRADUALLY INCREASING IN DEVELOPING WARM AIR
ADVECTION PATTERN. EXPECT ANY LATE DAY SNOW SHOWERS TO BE CONFINED
TO NORTHERN SECTIONS. HIGHS SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SOMEWHAT QUIET BUT CHANGEABLE PERIOD OF WEATHER ON TAP FOR THE
EXTENDED INCLUDING THANKSGIVING. OVERALL UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING
REMAINS IN PLACE...BUT VARIOUS SHORT WAVES AND A PERIOD OF RIDGING
MAKE FOR A FEW DETAILS TO NOTE.

WE WILL SEE A NICE WARM UP SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS THIS
MERIDIONAL PATTERN BUCKLES AND RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN
SEABOARD IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS.
PROMINENT SHORT WAVE ROTATING THROUGH THE TROUGH WILL PROMPT A
WARM FRONT TO LIFT THROUGH NEW ENGLAND MONDAY SPREADING MOSTLY
RAIN ACROSS THE AREA. SOME OF THE COOLER LOCATIONS EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING MAY HAVE A WINTRY MIX AT THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION.
LIKEWISE...VERY EARLY MONDAY MORNING FREEZING RAIN MAY BE THE
PRECIPITATION TYPE FOR A FEW NORTHERN LOCATIONS AS SURFACE
TEMPERATURES DROP BELOW FREEZING.

PRECIPITATION BECOMES SHOWERY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE
REGION...LIKELY CLEARING THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING.
AS TEMPERATURES DROP LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL DOMINATE IN UPSLOPE
AREAS. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS CLEAR OUT ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN AS
WINDS BECOME NW WEDNESDAY AND THANKSGIVING DAY. OCEAN LOW
PRESSURE PASSES WELL OUTSIDE THE BENCHMARK WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
MOVES INTO THE MARITIMES THANKSGIVING DAY. THIS WILL HAVE SOME
IMPACT BY KEEPING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN JUST OFF THE COAST AND
TO STRENGTHEN DOWNSLOPE PROCESSES. THANKSGIVING DAY LOOKS COOL
WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 30S NORTH TO UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S
SOUTH AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND OVER THE
MIDCOAST.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...HIE WILL SEE MVFR AT TIMES IN
SNOW SHOWERS THIS MORNING. ELSEWHERE CEILINGS WILL BE VFR WITH NW
WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...PERIODS OF MVFR AND IFR LIKELY IN RAIN AND SNOW
MONDAY. MOUNTAIN TERMINALS WILL SEE A CHANCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY IN INTERMITTENT SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...IT`S LIKELY WILL SEE GUSTS TO
MINIMAL GALE OUTSIDE THE BAYS TODAY WITH PASSAGE OF THE ARCTIC
FRONT...AND A GALE HAS BEEN POSTED FOR AREAS OUTSIDE THE BAYS.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM...SCA NEEDED SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING IN
STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WINDS...AND AGAIN MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ151-
     153.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
ES




000
FXUS61 KGYX 211113
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
613 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING FOLLOWED
BY A BLUSTERY NORTHWEST WIND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE
SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE SOUTHWEST MONDAY MORNING AND LIFTS NORTHEAST BY MONDAY
NIGHT. A COLD FRONT ATTEMPTS TO MOVE SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY
MORNING. LOW PRESSURE PASSES BY WELL OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY AND
THANKSGIVING DAY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE NORTH FRIDAY
DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

605 AM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO INGEST THE CURRENT MESONET IN 1ST
PERIOD GRIDS.

PREV DISC...
AT 07Z...AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WAS DRAPED ALONG THE SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY. THE FRONT WILL RACE SOUTHEAST AND OFFSHORE THIS MORNING.
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WE`LL SEE CLOUDS AND A FEW SNOW SHOWERS
WITH ITS PASSAGE AND A FEW UPSLOPE CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS IN ITS
WAKE. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE TEENS IN THE MOUNTAINS TO
LOWER 30S AT THE COAST...BUT THE BLUSTERY NORTHWEST WIND WILL MAKE
IT FEEL A GOOD TEN TO FIFTEEN DEGREES COLDER THEN THAT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
OUTSIDE OF A FEW CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS...IT`LL BE MAINLY
CLEAR AND COLD AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BY TO OUR SOUTH.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS AND TEENS...WITH A FEW
20 DEGREE READINGS CONFINED TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST. ON
SATURDAY...A SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS
OFFSHORE WITH CLOUDS GRADUALLY INCREASING IN DEVELOPING WARM AIR
ADVECTION PATTERN. EXPECT ANY LATE DAY SNOW SHOWERS TO BE CONFINED
TO NORTHERN SECTIONS. HIGHS SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SOMEWHAT QUIET BUT CHANGEABLE PERIOD OF WEATHER ON TAP FOR THE
EXTENDED INCLUDING THANKSGIVING. OVERALL UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING
REMAINS IN PLACE...BUT VARIOUS SHORT WAVES AND A PERIOD OF RIDGING
MAKE FOR A FEW DETAILS TO NOTE.

WE WILL SEE A NICE WARM UP SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS THIS
MERIDIONAL PATTERN BUCKLES AND RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN
SEABOARD IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS.
PROMINENT SHORT WAVE ROTATING THROUGH THE TROUGH WILL PROMPT A
WARM FRONT TO LIFT THROUGH NEW ENGLAND MONDAY SPREADING MOSTLY
RAIN ACROSS THE AREA. SOME OF THE COOLER LOCATIONS EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING MAY HAVE A WINTRY MIX AT THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION.
LIKEWISE...VERY EARLY MONDAY MORNING FREEZING RAIN MAY BE THE
PRECIPITATION TYPE FOR A FEW NORTHERN LOCATIONS AS SURFACE
TEMPERATURES DROP BELOW FREEZING.

PRECIPITATION BECOMES SHOWERY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE
REGION...LIKELY CLEARING THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING.
AS TEMPERATURES DROP LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL DOMINATE IN UPSLOPE
AREAS. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS CLEAR OUT ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN AS
WINDS BECOME NW WEDNESDAY AND THANKSGIVING DAY. OCEAN LOW
PRESSURE PASSES WELL OUTSIDE THE BENCHMARK WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
MOVES INTO THE MARITIMES THANKSGIVING DAY. THIS WILL HAVE SOME
IMPACT BY KEEPING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN JUST OFF THE COAST AND
TO STRENGTHEN DOWNSLOPE PROCESSES. THANKSGIVING DAY LOOKS COOL
WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 30S NORTH TO UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S
SOUTH AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND OVER THE
MIDCOAST.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...HIE WILL SEE MVFR AT TIMES IN
SNOW SHOWERS THIS MORNING. ELSEWHERE CEILINGS WILL BE VFR WITH NW
WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...PERIODS OF MVFR AND IFR LIKELY IN RAIN AND SNOW
MONDAY. MOUNTAIN TERMINALS WILL SEE A CHANCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY IN INTERMITTENT SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...IT`S LIKELY WILL SEE GUSTS TO
MINIMAL GALE OUTSIDE THE BAYS TODAY WITH PASSAGE OF THE ARCTIC
FRONT...AND A GALE HAS BEEN POSTED FOR AREAS OUTSIDE THE BAYS.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM...SCA NEEDED SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING IN
STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WINDS...AND AGAIN MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ151-
     153.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
ES




000
FXUS61 KGYX 210821
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
321 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING FOLLOWED
BY A BLUSTERY NORTHWEST WIND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE
SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE SOUTHWEST MONDAY MORNING AND LIFTS NORTHEAST BY MONDAY
NIGHT. A COLD FRONT ATTEMPTS TO MOVE SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY
MORNING. LOW PRESSURE PASSES BY WELL OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY AND
THANKSGIVING DAY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE NORTH FRIDAY
DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION.


&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AT 07Z...AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WAS DRAPED ALONG THE SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY. THE FRONT WILL RACE SOUTHEAST AND OFFSHORE THIS MORNING.
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WE`LL SEE CLOUDS AND A FEW SNOW SHOWERS
WITH ITS PASSAGE AND A FEW UPSLOPE CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS IN ITS
WAKE. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE TEENS IN THE MOUNTAINS TO
LOWER 30S AT THE COAST...BUT THE BLUSTERY NORTHWEST WIND WILL MAKE
IT FEEL A GOOD TEN TO FIFTEEN DEGREES COLDER THEN THAT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
OUTSIDE OF A FEW CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS...IT`LL BE MAINLY
CLEAR AND COLD AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BY TO OUR SOUTH.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS AND TEENS...WITH A FEW
20 DEGREE READINGS CONFINED TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST. ON
SATURDAY...A SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS
OFFSHORE WITH CLOUDS GRADUALLY INCREASING IN DEVELOPING WARM AIR
ADVECTION PATTERN. EXPECT ANY LATE DAY SNOW SHOWERS TO BE CONFINED
TO NORTHERN SECTIONS. HIGHS SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SOMEWHAT QUIET BUT CHANGEABLE PERIOD OF WEATHER ON TAP FOR THE
EXTENDED INCLUDING THANKSGIVING. OVERALL UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING
REMAINS IN PLACE...BUT VARIOUS SHORT WAVES AND A PERIOD OF RIDGING
MAKE FOR A FEW DETAILS TO NOTE.

WE WILL SEE A NICE WARM UP SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS THIS
MERIDIONAL PATTERN BUCKLES AND RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN
SEABOARD IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS.
PROMINENT SHORT WAVE ROTATING THROUGH THE TROUGH WILL PROMPT A
WARM FRONT TO LIFT THROUGH NEW ENGLAND MONDAY SPREADING MOSTLY
RAIN ACROSS THE AREA. SOME OF THE COOLER LOCATIONS EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING MAY HAVE A WINTRY MIX AT THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION.
LIKEWISE...VERY EARLY MONDAY MORNING FREEZING RAIN MAY BE THE
PRECIPITATION TYPE FOR A FEW NORTHERN LOCATIONS AS SURFACE
TEMPERATURES DROP BELOW FREEZING.

PRECIPITATION BECOMES SHOWERY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE
REGION...LIKELY CLEARING THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING.
AS TEMPERATURES DROP LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL DOMINATE IN UPSLOPE
AREAS. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS CLEAR OUT ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN AS
WINDS BECOME NW WEDNESDAY AND THANKSGIVING DAY. OCEAN LOW
PRESSURE PASSES WELL OUTSIDE THE BENCHMARK WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
MOVES INTO THE MARITIMES THANKSGIVING DAY. THIS WILL HAVE SOME
IMPACT BY KEEPING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN JUST OFF THE COAST AND
TO STRENGTHEN DOWNSLOPE PROCESSES. THANKSGIVING DAY LOOKS COOL
WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 30S NORTH TO UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S
SOUTH AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND OVER THE
MIDCOAST.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...HIE WILL SEE MVFR AT TIMES IN
SNOW SHOWERS THIS MORNING. ELSEWHERE CEILINGS WILL BE VFR WITH NW
WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...PERIODS OF MVFR AND IFR LIKELY IN RAIN AND SNOW
MONDAY. MOUNTAIN TERMINALS WILL SEE A CHANCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY IN INTERMITTENT SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...IT`S LIKELY WILL SEE GUSTS TO
MINIMAL GALE OUTSIDE THE BAYS TODAY WITH PASSAGE OF THE ARCTIC
FRONT...AND A GALE HAS BEEN POSTED FOR AREAS OUTSIDE THE BAYS.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM...SCA NEEDED SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING IN
STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WINDS...AND AGAIN MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ151-
     153.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$

SCHWIBS/HANES



000
FXUS61 KGYX 210821
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
321 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING FOLLOWED
BY A BLUSTERY NORTHWEST WIND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE
SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE SOUTHWEST MONDAY MORNING AND LIFTS NORTHEAST BY MONDAY
NIGHT. A COLD FRONT ATTEMPTS TO MOVE SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY
MORNING. LOW PRESSURE PASSES BY WELL OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY AND
THANKSGIVING DAY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE NORTH FRIDAY
DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION.


&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AT 07Z...AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WAS DRAPED ALONG THE SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY. THE FRONT WILL RACE SOUTHEAST AND OFFSHORE THIS MORNING.
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WE`LL SEE CLOUDS AND A FEW SNOW SHOWERS
WITH ITS PASSAGE AND A FEW UPSLOPE CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS IN ITS
WAKE. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE TEENS IN THE MOUNTAINS TO
LOWER 30S AT THE COAST...BUT THE BLUSTERY NORTHWEST WIND WILL MAKE
IT FEEL A GOOD TEN TO FIFTEEN DEGREES COLDER THEN THAT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
OUTSIDE OF A FEW CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS...IT`LL BE MAINLY
CLEAR AND COLD AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BY TO OUR SOUTH.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS AND TEENS...WITH A FEW
20 DEGREE READINGS CONFINED TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST. ON
SATURDAY...A SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS
OFFSHORE WITH CLOUDS GRADUALLY INCREASING IN DEVELOPING WARM AIR
ADVECTION PATTERN. EXPECT ANY LATE DAY SNOW SHOWERS TO BE CONFINED
TO NORTHERN SECTIONS. HIGHS SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SOMEWHAT QUIET BUT CHANGEABLE PERIOD OF WEATHER ON TAP FOR THE
EXTENDED INCLUDING THANKSGIVING. OVERALL UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING
REMAINS IN PLACE...BUT VARIOUS SHORT WAVES AND A PERIOD OF RIDGING
MAKE FOR A FEW DETAILS TO NOTE.

WE WILL SEE A NICE WARM UP SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS THIS
MERIDIONAL PATTERN BUCKLES AND RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN
SEABOARD IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS.
PROMINENT SHORT WAVE ROTATING THROUGH THE TROUGH WILL PROMPT A
WARM FRONT TO LIFT THROUGH NEW ENGLAND MONDAY SPREADING MOSTLY
RAIN ACROSS THE AREA. SOME OF THE COOLER LOCATIONS EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING MAY HAVE A WINTRY MIX AT THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION.
LIKEWISE...VERY EARLY MONDAY MORNING FREEZING RAIN MAY BE THE
PRECIPITATION TYPE FOR A FEW NORTHERN LOCATIONS AS SURFACE
TEMPERATURES DROP BELOW FREEZING.

PRECIPITATION BECOMES SHOWERY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE
REGION...LIKELY CLEARING THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING.
AS TEMPERATURES DROP LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL DOMINATE IN UPSLOPE
AREAS. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS CLEAR OUT ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN AS
WINDS BECOME NW WEDNESDAY AND THANKSGIVING DAY. OCEAN LOW
PRESSURE PASSES WELL OUTSIDE THE BENCHMARK WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
MOVES INTO THE MARITIMES THANKSGIVING DAY. THIS WILL HAVE SOME
IMPACT BY KEEPING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN JUST OFF THE COAST AND
TO STRENGTHEN DOWNSLOPE PROCESSES. THANKSGIVING DAY LOOKS COOL
WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 30S NORTH TO UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S
SOUTH AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND OVER THE
MIDCOAST.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...HIE WILL SEE MVFR AT TIMES IN
SNOW SHOWERS THIS MORNING. ELSEWHERE CEILINGS WILL BE VFR WITH NW
WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...PERIODS OF MVFR AND IFR LIKELY IN RAIN AND SNOW
MONDAY. MOUNTAIN TERMINALS WILL SEE A CHANCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY IN INTERMITTENT SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...IT`S LIKELY WILL SEE GUSTS TO
MINIMAL GALE OUTSIDE THE BAYS TODAY WITH PASSAGE OF THE ARCTIC
FRONT...AND A GALE HAS BEEN POSTED FOR AREAS OUTSIDE THE BAYS.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM...SCA NEEDED SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING IN
STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WINDS...AND AGAIN MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ151-
     153.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$

SCHWIBS/HANES



000
FXUS61 KGYX 210821
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
321 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING FOLLOWED
BY A BLUSTERY NORTHWEST WIND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE
SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE SOUTHWEST MONDAY MORNING AND LIFTS NORTHEAST BY MONDAY
NIGHT. A COLD FRONT ATTEMPTS TO MOVE SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY
MORNING. LOW PRESSURE PASSES BY WELL OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY AND
THANKSGIVING DAY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE NORTH FRIDAY
DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION.


&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AT 07Z...AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WAS DRAPED ALONG THE SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY. THE FRONT WILL RACE SOUTHEAST AND OFFSHORE THIS MORNING.
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WE`LL SEE CLOUDS AND A FEW SNOW SHOWERS
WITH ITS PASSAGE AND A FEW UPSLOPE CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS IN ITS
WAKE. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE TEENS IN THE MOUNTAINS TO
LOWER 30S AT THE COAST...BUT THE BLUSTERY NORTHWEST WIND WILL MAKE
IT FEEL A GOOD TEN TO FIFTEEN DEGREES COLDER THEN THAT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
OUTSIDE OF A FEW CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS...IT`LL BE MAINLY
CLEAR AND COLD AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BY TO OUR SOUTH.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS AND TEENS...WITH A FEW
20 DEGREE READINGS CONFINED TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST. ON
SATURDAY...A SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS
OFFSHORE WITH CLOUDS GRADUALLY INCREASING IN DEVELOPING WARM AIR
ADVECTION PATTERN. EXPECT ANY LATE DAY SNOW SHOWERS TO BE CONFINED
TO NORTHERN SECTIONS. HIGHS SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SOMEWHAT QUIET BUT CHANGEABLE PERIOD OF WEATHER ON TAP FOR THE
EXTENDED INCLUDING THANKSGIVING. OVERALL UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING
REMAINS IN PLACE...BUT VARIOUS SHORT WAVES AND A PERIOD OF RIDGING
MAKE FOR A FEW DETAILS TO NOTE.

WE WILL SEE A NICE WARM UP SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS THIS
MERIDIONAL PATTERN BUCKLES AND RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN
SEABOARD IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS.
PROMINENT SHORT WAVE ROTATING THROUGH THE TROUGH WILL PROMPT A
WARM FRONT TO LIFT THROUGH NEW ENGLAND MONDAY SPREADING MOSTLY
RAIN ACROSS THE AREA. SOME OF THE COOLER LOCATIONS EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING MAY HAVE A WINTRY MIX AT THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION.
LIKEWISE...VERY EARLY MONDAY MORNING FREEZING RAIN MAY BE THE
PRECIPITATION TYPE FOR A FEW NORTHERN LOCATIONS AS SURFACE
TEMPERATURES DROP BELOW FREEZING.

PRECIPITATION BECOMES SHOWERY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE
REGION...LIKELY CLEARING THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING.
AS TEMPERATURES DROP LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL DOMINATE IN UPSLOPE
AREAS. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS CLEAR OUT ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN AS
WINDS BECOME NW WEDNESDAY AND THANKSGIVING DAY. OCEAN LOW
PRESSURE PASSES WELL OUTSIDE THE BENCHMARK WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
MOVES INTO THE MARITIMES THANKSGIVING DAY. THIS WILL HAVE SOME
IMPACT BY KEEPING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN JUST OFF THE COAST AND
TO STRENGTHEN DOWNSLOPE PROCESSES. THANKSGIVING DAY LOOKS COOL
WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 30S NORTH TO UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S
SOUTH AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND OVER THE
MIDCOAST.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...HIE WILL SEE MVFR AT TIMES IN
SNOW SHOWERS THIS MORNING. ELSEWHERE CEILINGS WILL BE VFR WITH NW
WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...PERIODS OF MVFR AND IFR LIKELY IN RAIN AND SNOW
MONDAY. MOUNTAIN TERMINALS WILL SEE A CHANCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY IN INTERMITTENT SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...IT`S LIKELY WILL SEE GUSTS TO
MINIMAL GALE OUTSIDE THE BAYS TODAY WITH PASSAGE OF THE ARCTIC
FRONT...AND A GALE HAS BEEN POSTED FOR AREAS OUTSIDE THE BAYS.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM...SCA NEEDED SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING IN
STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WINDS...AND AGAIN MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ151-
     153.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$

SCHWIBS/HANES



000
FXUS61 KGYX 210821
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
321 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING FOLLOWED
BY A BLUSTERY NORTHWEST WIND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE
SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE SOUTHWEST MONDAY MORNING AND LIFTS NORTHEAST BY MONDAY
NIGHT. A COLD FRONT ATTEMPTS TO MOVE SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY
MORNING. LOW PRESSURE PASSES BY WELL OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY AND
THANKSGIVING DAY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE NORTH FRIDAY
DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION.


&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AT 07Z...AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WAS DRAPED ALONG THE SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY. THE FRONT WILL RACE SOUTHEAST AND OFFSHORE THIS MORNING.
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WE`LL SEE CLOUDS AND A FEW SNOW SHOWERS
WITH ITS PASSAGE AND A FEW UPSLOPE CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS IN ITS
WAKE. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE TEENS IN THE MOUNTAINS TO
LOWER 30S AT THE COAST...BUT THE BLUSTERY NORTHWEST WIND WILL MAKE
IT FEEL A GOOD TEN TO FIFTEEN DEGREES COLDER THEN THAT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
OUTSIDE OF A FEW CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS...IT`LL BE MAINLY
CLEAR AND COLD AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BY TO OUR SOUTH.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS AND TEENS...WITH A FEW
20 DEGREE READINGS CONFINED TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST. ON
SATURDAY...A SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS
OFFSHORE WITH CLOUDS GRADUALLY INCREASING IN DEVELOPING WARM AIR
ADVECTION PATTERN. EXPECT ANY LATE DAY SNOW SHOWERS TO BE CONFINED
TO NORTHERN SECTIONS. HIGHS SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SOMEWHAT QUIET BUT CHANGEABLE PERIOD OF WEATHER ON TAP FOR THE
EXTENDED INCLUDING THANKSGIVING. OVERALL UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING
REMAINS IN PLACE...BUT VARIOUS SHORT WAVES AND A PERIOD OF RIDGING
MAKE FOR A FEW DETAILS TO NOTE.

WE WILL SEE A NICE WARM UP SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS THIS
MERIDIONAL PATTERN BUCKLES AND RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN
SEABOARD IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS.
PROMINENT SHORT WAVE ROTATING THROUGH THE TROUGH WILL PROMPT A
WARM FRONT TO LIFT THROUGH NEW ENGLAND MONDAY SPREADING MOSTLY
RAIN ACROSS THE AREA. SOME OF THE COOLER LOCATIONS EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING MAY HAVE A WINTRY MIX AT THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION.
LIKEWISE...VERY EARLY MONDAY MORNING FREEZING RAIN MAY BE THE
PRECIPITATION TYPE FOR A FEW NORTHERN LOCATIONS AS SURFACE
TEMPERATURES DROP BELOW FREEZING.

PRECIPITATION BECOMES SHOWERY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE
REGION...LIKELY CLEARING THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING.
AS TEMPERATURES DROP LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL DOMINATE IN UPSLOPE
AREAS. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS CLEAR OUT ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN AS
WINDS BECOME NW WEDNESDAY AND THANKSGIVING DAY. OCEAN LOW
PRESSURE PASSES WELL OUTSIDE THE BENCHMARK WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
MOVES INTO THE MARITIMES THANKSGIVING DAY. THIS WILL HAVE SOME
IMPACT BY KEEPING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN JUST OFF THE COAST AND
TO STRENGTHEN DOWNSLOPE PROCESSES. THANKSGIVING DAY LOOKS COOL
WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 30S NORTH TO UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S
SOUTH AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND OVER THE
MIDCOAST.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...HIE WILL SEE MVFR AT TIMES IN
SNOW SHOWERS THIS MORNING. ELSEWHERE CEILINGS WILL BE VFR WITH NW
WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...PERIODS OF MVFR AND IFR LIKELY IN RAIN AND SNOW
MONDAY. MOUNTAIN TERMINALS WILL SEE A CHANCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY IN INTERMITTENT SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...IT`S LIKELY WILL SEE GUSTS TO
MINIMAL GALE OUTSIDE THE BAYS TODAY WITH PASSAGE OF THE ARCTIC
FRONT...AND A GALE HAS BEEN POSTED FOR AREAS OUTSIDE THE BAYS.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM...SCA NEEDED SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING IN
STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WINDS...AND AGAIN MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ151-
     153.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$

SCHWIBS/HANES



000
FXUS61 KCAR 210728
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
228 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...AND
THEN MOVE EAST SUNDAY. STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS WEST OF THE
REGION MONDAY AND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ALOFT...A DEEP MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER NEW ENGLAND AND THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES WILL MOVE EAST TODAY. 500 MB HEIGHTS WILL
RISE SIGNIFICANTLY TONIGHT AS A FLAT RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA.

SFC...A TROUGH TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN MAINE THROUGH MID-MORNING
AND EXIT INTO NEW BRUNSWICK. STRING HIGH PRESSURE IN THE MIDWEST
WILL MOVE TO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT.

SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...TODAY WILL BE A WINDY AND COLD DAY
WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS THIS MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN
MAINE AS A TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. DRIER IN THE WAKE OF THE
TROUGH FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON
WILL NOT GET OUT OF THE 20S ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE TO NEAR 30 IN
THE BANGOR AREA. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES COMBINED WITH 925-850
MB WIND OF 25-30 KNOTS WILL MAKE FOR A WINDY DAY. EXPECT SUSTAINED
WIND SPEEDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 TO 35 MPH. THIS WILL
KEEP WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOW TEENS THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE CROWN OF MAINE WITH TEENS DOWN EAST. THE WIND WILL
SLACKEN THIS EVENING...AND WITH A MAINLY CLEAR SKY EXPECT A VERY
COLD NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTH TO TEENS ALONG THE
COAST. SOME OF THE NORMAL COLD SPOTS IN THE NW VALLEYS HAVE A
DECENT SHOT AT DROPPING BELOW ZERO...AND HAVE LOWERED TEMPS SOME
IN THE NORMAL COLD SPOTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
SATURDAY AND MOVE OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT. A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING
THROUGH THE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE SATURDAY, MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THERE`S NOT A TON OF MOISTURE WITH THIS FEATURE, SO SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATION WILL BE AN INCH OR LESS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID AND
UPPER 20S NORTH TO THE LOWER TO MID 30S SOUTH.

THE HIGH WILL SHIFT EASTWARD SATURDAY NIGHT, ALLOWING FOR WARMER AIR
TO BEGIN TO MOVE NORTHWARD ON SOUTHWEST FLOW. MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE EARLY IN THE EVENING, WITH 3-
HOURLY TEMPERATURES HOLDING STEADY OR EVEN RISING SLIGHTLY
OVERNIGHT. HAVE GONE A BIT WARMER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST
ACCORDINGLY. EXPECT WE`LL SEE SOME LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT
AS ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE REGION. THE PRECIPITATION
WILL MAINLY FALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW, WITH SOME RAIN MIXING IN ALONG
THE COAST. SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE LESS THAN AN INCH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY NOSE INTO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY,
WITH INCREASING WARM AIR ADVECTION KEEPING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS OVER MAINLY WESTERN AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE
MID AND UPPER 30S IN THE NORTH, AND THE LOWER TO MID 40 SOUTH, SO
SNOW IS EXPECTED TO AT LEAST MIX WITH RAIN, EVEN IN THE NORTHERN
REACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A BIG WARMUP IS ON TAP FOR THE START OF THE WORK WEEK. LOW
PRESSURE WILL SLIDE NORTHWARD FROM THE MIDWEST ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND INTO CENTRAL ONTARIO AND QUEBEC MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY,
LIFTING ITS WARM FRONT ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AS IT DOES SO. AS SUCH,
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE 40S AND 50S DURING THE DAY
MONDAY AND REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING RIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD FROM SOUTH TO NORTH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT,
STARTING OUT AS SNOW NORTH/RAIN SOUTH, BUT IT WILL TRANSITION OVER
TO RAIN EVERYWHERE ON MONDAY. AN OCCLUDED FRONT WILL CROSS FROM
WEST TO EAST MONDAY NIGHT, ALLOWING THE RAIN TO TAPER TO SHOWERS,
BUT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE STATE LATER TUESDAY, FINALLY
BRINGING IN THE COLDER AIR FOR TUESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER, THE AIR
WILL POST-FRONT WILL ALSO BE MUCH DRIER, SO EXPECT THE RAIN
SHOWERS TO COME TO AN END BEFORE THEY HAVE THE CHANCE TO CHANGE
OVER TO SNOW. THE FORECAST MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME DISCREPANCIES
FOR MID WEEK, MAINLY WITH THE HANDLING OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL LIFT UP THE EAST COAST/WESTERN
ATLANTIC. THE ECMWF IS MUCH CLOSER TO THE COAST WITH THE LATTER
SYSTEM, BASICALLY BRINGING THE LOW CENTER JUST OFF THE SOUTH NOVA
SCOTIA COAST, WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE CENTER WELL TO THE EAST.
HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE POPS FOR NOW DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY.
REGARDLESS, THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN
THE START, WITH HIGHS AND LOWS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
SOME 5 TO 10 DEGREES COLDER THAN MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: POCKETS OF MVFR AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS FROM KHUL
NORTH TO KFVE THROUGH MID AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE VFR THROUGH
TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY,
BUT SOME MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE AT KFVE AND
KCAR SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING IN SNOW SHOWERS. THE NEXT
SIGNIFICANT CHANCE FOR POOR CONDITIONS ARRIVES MONDAY AS A WARM
FRONT CROSSES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. PRECIPITATION WILL START AS
SNOW IN THE NORTH/RAIN IN THE SOUTH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT, THEN
TRANSITION TO ALL RAIN DURING THE DAY MONDAY. MVFR IS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL, WITH IFR POSSIBLE IN ANY SNOW. WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL GIVE
WAY TO SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT, BUT EXPECT THE MVFR/LOCAL IFR TO
CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING DRIER AIR
AND CLEARING SKIES TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WAS EXTENDED THROUGH TONIGHT.
A FEW GUSTS TO NEAR GALE FORCE ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING.
THE WIND WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH TONIGHT...BUT GUSTS OF 25-30 KNOTS
ARE LIKELY MOST OF THE NIGHT.

SHORT TERM: A LOW-LEVEL JET OF 35-45KT WILL SET UP OVER THE
WATERS LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. EXPECT AT LEAST PART
OF THIS WILL BE ABLE TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE OWING TO THE
RELATIVELY WARM WATERS, SO WOULD ANTICIPATE AT LEAST A HIGH-END
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED, IF NOT A GALE WATCH/WARNING.
LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TRENDS CLOSELY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CB
SHORT TERM...HASTINGS
LONG TERM...HASTINGS
AVIATION...CB/HASTINGS
MARINE...CB/HASTINGS



000
FXUS61 KCAR 210728
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
228 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...AND
THEN MOVE EAST SUNDAY. STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS WEST OF THE
REGION MONDAY AND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ALOFT...A DEEP MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER NEW ENGLAND AND THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES WILL MOVE EAST TODAY. 500 MB HEIGHTS WILL
RISE SIGNIFICANTLY TONIGHT AS A FLAT RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA.

SFC...A TROUGH TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN MAINE THROUGH MID-MORNING
AND EXIT INTO NEW BRUNSWICK. STRING HIGH PRESSURE IN THE MIDWEST
WILL MOVE TO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT.

SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...TODAY WILL BE A WINDY AND COLD DAY
WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS THIS MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN
MAINE AS A TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. DRIER IN THE WAKE OF THE
TROUGH FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON
WILL NOT GET OUT OF THE 20S ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE TO NEAR 30 IN
THE BANGOR AREA. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES COMBINED WITH 925-850
MB WIND OF 25-30 KNOTS WILL MAKE FOR A WINDY DAY. EXPECT SUSTAINED
WIND SPEEDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 TO 35 MPH. THIS WILL
KEEP WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOW TEENS THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE CROWN OF MAINE WITH TEENS DOWN EAST. THE WIND WILL
SLACKEN THIS EVENING...AND WITH A MAINLY CLEAR SKY EXPECT A VERY
COLD NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTH TO TEENS ALONG THE
COAST. SOME OF THE NORMAL COLD SPOTS IN THE NW VALLEYS HAVE A
DECENT SHOT AT DROPPING BELOW ZERO...AND HAVE LOWERED TEMPS SOME
IN THE NORMAL COLD SPOTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
SATURDAY AND MOVE OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT. A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING
THROUGH THE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE SATURDAY, MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THERE`S NOT A TON OF MOISTURE WITH THIS FEATURE, SO SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATION WILL BE AN INCH OR LESS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID AND
UPPER 20S NORTH TO THE LOWER TO MID 30S SOUTH.

THE HIGH WILL SHIFT EASTWARD SATURDAY NIGHT, ALLOWING FOR WARMER AIR
TO BEGIN TO MOVE NORTHWARD ON SOUTHWEST FLOW. MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE EARLY IN THE EVENING, WITH 3-
HOURLY TEMPERATURES HOLDING STEADY OR EVEN RISING SLIGHTLY
OVERNIGHT. HAVE GONE A BIT WARMER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST
ACCORDINGLY. EXPECT WE`LL SEE SOME LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT
AS ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE REGION. THE PRECIPITATION
WILL MAINLY FALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW, WITH SOME RAIN MIXING IN ALONG
THE COAST. SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE LESS THAN AN INCH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY NOSE INTO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY,
WITH INCREASING WARM AIR ADVECTION KEEPING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS OVER MAINLY WESTERN AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE
MID AND UPPER 30S IN THE NORTH, AND THE LOWER TO MID 40 SOUTH, SO
SNOW IS EXPECTED TO AT LEAST MIX WITH RAIN, EVEN IN THE NORTHERN
REACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A BIG WARMUP IS ON TAP FOR THE START OF THE WORK WEEK. LOW
PRESSURE WILL SLIDE NORTHWARD FROM THE MIDWEST ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND INTO CENTRAL ONTARIO AND QUEBEC MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY,
LIFTING ITS WARM FRONT ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AS IT DOES SO. AS SUCH,
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE 40S AND 50S DURING THE DAY
MONDAY AND REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING RIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD FROM SOUTH TO NORTH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT,
STARTING OUT AS SNOW NORTH/RAIN SOUTH, BUT IT WILL TRANSITION OVER
TO RAIN EVERYWHERE ON MONDAY. AN OCCLUDED FRONT WILL CROSS FROM
WEST TO EAST MONDAY NIGHT, ALLOWING THE RAIN TO TAPER TO SHOWERS,
BUT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE STATE LATER TUESDAY, FINALLY
BRINGING IN THE COLDER AIR FOR TUESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER, THE AIR
WILL POST-FRONT WILL ALSO BE MUCH DRIER, SO EXPECT THE RAIN
SHOWERS TO COME TO AN END BEFORE THEY HAVE THE CHANCE TO CHANGE
OVER TO SNOW. THE FORECAST MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME DISCREPANCIES
FOR MID WEEK, MAINLY WITH THE HANDLING OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL LIFT UP THE EAST COAST/WESTERN
ATLANTIC. THE ECMWF IS MUCH CLOSER TO THE COAST WITH THE LATTER
SYSTEM, BASICALLY BRINGING THE LOW CENTER JUST OFF THE SOUTH NOVA
SCOTIA COAST, WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE CENTER WELL TO THE EAST.
HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE POPS FOR NOW DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY.
REGARDLESS, THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN
THE START, WITH HIGHS AND LOWS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
SOME 5 TO 10 DEGREES COLDER THAN MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: POCKETS OF MVFR AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS FROM KHUL
NORTH TO KFVE THROUGH MID AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE VFR THROUGH
TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY,
BUT SOME MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE AT KFVE AND
KCAR SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING IN SNOW SHOWERS. THE NEXT
SIGNIFICANT CHANCE FOR POOR CONDITIONS ARRIVES MONDAY AS A WARM
FRONT CROSSES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. PRECIPITATION WILL START AS
SNOW IN THE NORTH/RAIN IN THE SOUTH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT, THEN
TRANSITION TO ALL RAIN DURING THE DAY MONDAY. MVFR IS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL, WITH IFR POSSIBLE IN ANY SNOW. WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL GIVE
WAY TO SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT, BUT EXPECT THE MVFR/LOCAL IFR TO
CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING DRIER AIR
AND CLEARING SKIES TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WAS EXTENDED THROUGH TONIGHT.
A FEW GUSTS TO NEAR GALE FORCE ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING.
THE WIND WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH TONIGHT...BUT GUSTS OF 25-30 KNOTS
ARE LIKELY MOST OF THE NIGHT.

SHORT TERM: A LOW-LEVEL JET OF 35-45KT WILL SET UP OVER THE
WATERS LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. EXPECT AT LEAST PART
OF THIS WILL BE ABLE TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE OWING TO THE
RELATIVELY WARM WATERS, SO WOULD ANTICIPATE AT LEAST A HIGH-END
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED, IF NOT A GALE WATCH/WARNING.
LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TRENDS CLOSELY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CB
SHORT TERM...HASTINGS
LONG TERM...HASTINGS
AVIATION...CB/HASTINGS
MARINE...CB/HASTINGS



000
FXUS61 KCAR 210728
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
228 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...AND
THEN MOVE EAST SUNDAY. STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS WEST OF THE
REGION MONDAY AND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ALOFT...A DEEP MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER NEW ENGLAND AND THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES WILL MOVE EAST TODAY. 500 MB HEIGHTS WILL
RISE SIGNIFICANTLY TONIGHT AS A FLAT RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA.

SFC...A TROUGH TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN MAINE THROUGH MID-MORNING
AND EXIT INTO NEW BRUNSWICK. STRING HIGH PRESSURE IN THE MIDWEST
WILL MOVE TO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT.

SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...TODAY WILL BE A WINDY AND COLD DAY
WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS THIS MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN
MAINE AS A TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. DRIER IN THE WAKE OF THE
TROUGH FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON
WILL NOT GET OUT OF THE 20S ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE TO NEAR 30 IN
THE BANGOR AREA. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES COMBINED WITH 925-850
MB WIND OF 25-30 KNOTS WILL MAKE FOR A WINDY DAY. EXPECT SUSTAINED
WIND SPEEDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 TO 35 MPH. THIS WILL
KEEP WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOW TEENS THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE CROWN OF MAINE WITH TEENS DOWN EAST. THE WIND WILL
SLACKEN THIS EVENING...AND WITH A MAINLY CLEAR SKY EXPECT A VERY
COLD NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTH TO TEENS ALONG THE
COAST. SOME OF THE NORMAL COLD SPOTS IN THE NW VALLEYS HAVE A
DECENT SHOT AT DROPPING BELOW ZERO...AND HAVE LOWERED TEMPS SOME
IN THE NORMAL COLD SPOTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
SATURDAY AND MOVE OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT. A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING
THROUGH THE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE SATURDAY, MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THERE`S NOT A TON OF MOISTURE WITH THIS FEATURE, SO SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATION WILL BE AN INCH OR LESS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID AND
UPPER 20S NORTH TO THE LOWER TO MID 30S SOUTH.

THE HIGH WILL SHIFT EASTWARD SATURDAY NIGHT, ALLOWING FOR WARMER AIR
TO BEGIN TO MOVE NORTHWARD ON SOUTHWEST FLOW. MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE EARLY IN THE EVENING, WITH 3-
HOURLY TEMPERATURES HOLDING STEADY OR EVEN RISING SLIGHTLY
OVERNIGHT. HAVE GONE A BIT WARMER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST
ACCORDINGLY. EXPECT WE`LL SEE SOME LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT
AS ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE REGION. THE PRECIPITATION
WILL MAINLY FALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW, WITH SOME RAIN MIXING IN ALONG
THE COAST. SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE LESS THAN AN INCH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY NOSE INTO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY,
WITH INCREASING WARM AIR ADVECTION KEEPING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS OVER MAINLY WESTERN AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE
MID AND UPPER 30S IN THE NORTH, AND THE LOWER TO MID 40 SOUTH, SO
SNOW IS EXPECTED TO AT LEAST MIX WITH RAIN, EVEN IN THE NORTHERN
REACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A BIG WARMUP IS ON TAP FOR THE START OF THE WORK WEEK. LOW
PRESSURE WILL SLIDE NORTHWARD FROM THE MIDWEST ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND INTO CENTRAL ONTARIO AND QUEBEC MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY,
LIFTING ITS WARM FRONT ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AS IT DOES SO. AS SUCH,
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE 40S AND 50S DURING THE DAY
MONDAY AND REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING RIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD FROM SOUTH TO NORTH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT,
STARTING OUT AS SNOW NORTH/RAIN SOUTH, BUT IT WILL TRANSITION OVER
TO RAIN EVERYWHERE ON MONDAY. AN OCCLUDED FRONT WILL CROSS FROM
WEST TO EAST MONDAY NIGHT, ALLOWING THE RAIN TO TAPER TO SHOWERS,
BUT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE STATE LATER TUESDAY, FINALLY
BRINGING IN THE COLDER AIR FOR TUESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER, THE AIR
WILL POST-FRONT WILL ALSO BE MUCH DRIER, SO EXPECT THE RAIN
SHOWERS TO COME TO AN END BEFORE THEY HAVE THE CHANCE TO CHANGE
OVER TO SNOW. THE FORECAST MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME DISCREPANCIES
FOR MID WEEK, MAINLY WITH THE HANDLING OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL LIFT UP THE EAST COAST/WESTERN
ATLANTIC. THE ECMWF IS MUCH CLOSER TO THE COAST WITH THE LATTER
SYSTEM, BASICALLY BRINGING THE LOW CENTER JUST OFF THE SOUTH NOVA
SCOTIA COAST, WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE CENTER WELL TO THE EAST.
HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE POPS FOR NOW DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY.
REGARDLESS, THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN
THE START, WITH HIGHS AND LOWS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
SOME 5 TO 10 DEGREES COLDER THAN MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: POCKETS OF MVFR AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS FROM KHUL
NORTH TO KFVE THROUGH MID AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE VFR THROUGH
TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY,
BUT SOME MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE AT KFVE AND
KCAR SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING IN SNOW SHOWERS. THE NEXT
SIGNIFICANT CHANCE FOR POOR CONDITIONS ARRIVES MONDAY AS A WARM
FRONT CROSSES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. PRECIPITATION WILL START AS
SNOW IN THE NORTH/RAIN IN THE SOUTH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT, THEN
TRANSITION TO ALL RAIN DURING THE DAY MONDAY. MVFR IS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL, WITH IFR POSSIBLE IN ANY SNOW. WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL GIVE
WAY TO SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT, BUT EXPECT THE MVFR/LOCAL IFR TO
CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING DRIER AIR
AND CLEARING SKIES TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WAS EXTENDED THROUGH TONIGHT.
A FEW GUSTS TO NEAR GALE FORCE ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING.
THE WIND WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH TONIGHT...BUT GUSTS OF 25-30 KNOTS
ARE LIKELY MOST OF THE NIGHT.

SHORT TERM: A LOW-LEVEL JET OF 35-45KT WILL SET UP OVER THE
WATERS LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. EXPECT AT LEAST PART
OF THIS WILL BE ABLE TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE OWING TO THE
RELATIVELY WARM WATERS, SO WOULD ANTICIPATE AT LEAST A HIGH-END
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED, IF NOT A GALE WATCH/WARNING.
LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TRENDS CLOSELY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CB
SHORT TERM...HASTINGS
LONG TERM...HASTINGS
AVIATION...CB/HASTINGS
MARINE...CB/HASTINGS



000
FXUS61 KCAR 210728
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
228 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...AND
THEN MOVE EAST SUNDAY. STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS WEST OF THE
REGION MONDAY AND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ALOFT...A DEEP MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER NEW ENGLAND AND THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES WILL MOVE EAST TODAY. 500 MB HEIGHTS WILL
RISE SIGNIFICANTLY TONIGHT AS A FLAT RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA.

SFC...A TROUGH TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN MAINE THROUGH MID-MORNING
AND EXIT INTO NEW BRUNSWICK. STRING HIGH PRESSURE IN THE MIDWEST
WILL MOVE TO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT.

SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...TODAY WILL BE A WINDY AND COLD DAY
WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS THIS MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN
MAINE AS A TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. DRIER IN THE WAKE OF THE
TROUGH FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON
WILL NOT GET OUT OF THE 20S ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE TO NEAR 30 IN
THE BANGOR AREA. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES COMBINED WITH 925-850
MB WIND OF 25-30 KNOTS WILL MAKE FOR A WINDY DAY. EXPECT SUSTAINED
WIND SPEEDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 TO 35 MPH. THIS WILL
KEEP WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOW TEENS THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE CROWN OF MAINE WITH TEENS DOWN EAST. THE WIND WILL
SLACKEN THIS EVENING...AND WITH A MAINLY CLEAR SKY EXPECT A VERY
COLD NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTH TO TEENS ALONG THE
COAST. SOME OF THE NORMAL COLD SPOTS IN THE NW VALLEYS HAVE A
DECENT SHOT AT DROPPING BELOW ZERO...AND HAVE LOWERED TEMPS SOME
IN THE NORMAL COLD SPOTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
SATURDAY AND MOVE OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT. A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING
THROUGH THE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE SATURDAY, MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THERE`S NOT A TON OF MOISTURE WITH THIS FEATURE, SO SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATION WILL BE AN INCH OR LESS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID AND
UPPER 20S NORTH TO THE LOWER TO MID 30S SOUTH.

THE HIGH WILL SHIFT EASTWARD SATURDAY NIGHT, ALLOWING FOR WARMER AIR
TO BEGIN TO MOVE NORTHWARD ON SOUTHWEST FLOW. MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE EARLY IN THE EVENING, WITH 3-
HOURLY TEMPERATURES HOLDING STEADY OR EVEN RISING SLIGHTLY
OVERNIGHT. HAVE GONE A BIT WARMER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST
ACCORDINGLY. EXPECT WE`LL SEE SOME LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT
AS ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE REGION. THE PRECIPITATION
WILL MAINLY FALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW, WITH SOME RAIN MIXING IN ALONG
THE COAST. SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE LESS THAN AN INCH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY NOSE INTO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY,
WITH INCREASING WARM AIR ADVECTION KEEPING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS OVER MAINLY WESTERN AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE
MID AND UPPER 30S IN THE NORTH, AND THE LOWER TO MID 40 SOUTH, SO
SNOW IS EXPECTED TO AT LEAST MIX WITH RAIN, EVEN IN THE NORTHERN
REACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A BIG WARMUP IS ON TAP FOR THE START OF THE WORK WEEK. LOW
PRESSURE WILL SLIDE NORTHWARD FROM THE MIDWEST ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND INTO CENTRAL ONTARIO AND QUEBEC MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY,
LIFTING ITS WARM FRONT ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AS IT DOES SO. AS SUCH,
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE 40S AND 50S DURING THE DAY
MONDAY AND REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING RIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD FROM SOUTH TO NORTH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT,
STARTING OUT AS SNOW NORTH/RAIN SOUTH, BUT IT WILL TRANSITION OVER
TO RAIN EVERYWHERE ON MONDAY. AN OCCLUDED FRONT WILL CROSS FROM
WEST TO EAST MONDAY NIGHT, ALLOWING THE RAIN TO TAPER TO SHOWERS,
BUT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE STATE LATER TUESDAY, FINALLY
BRINGING IN THE COLDER AIR FOR TUESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER, THE AIR
WILL POST-FRONT WILL ALSO BE MUCH DRIER, SO EXPECT THE RAIN
SHOWERS TO COME TO AN END BEFORE THEY HAVE THE CHANCE TO CHANGE
OVER TO SNOW. THE FORECAST MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME DISCREPANCIES
FOR MID WEEK, MAINLY WITH THE HANDLING OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL LIFT UP THE EAST COAST/WESTERN
ATLANTIC. THE ECMWF IS MUCH CLOSER TO THE COAST WITH THE LATTER
SYSTEM, BASICALLY BRINGING THE LOW CENTER JUST OFF THE SOUTH NOVA
SCOTIA COAST, WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE CENTER WELL TO THE EAST.
HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE POPS FOR NOW DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY.
REGARDLESS, THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN
THE START, WITH HIGHS AND LOWS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
SOME 5 TO 10 DEGREES COLDER THAN MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: POCKETS OF MVFR AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS FROM KHUL
NORTH TO KFVE THROUGH MID AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE VFR THROUGH
TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY,
BUT SOME MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE AT KFVE AND
KCAR SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING IN SNOW SHOWERS. THE NEXT
SIGNIFICANT CHANCE FOR POOR CONDITIONS ARRIVES MONDAY AS A WARM
FRONT CROSSES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. PRECIPITATION WILL START AS
SNOW IN THE NORTH/RAIN IN THE SOUTH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT, THEN
TRANSITION TO ALL RAIN DURING THE DAY MONDAY. MVFR IS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL, WITH IFR POSSIBLE IN ANY SNOW. WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL GIVE
WAY TO SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT, BUT EXPECT THE MVFR/LOCAL IFR TO
CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING DRIER AIR
AND CLEARING SKIES TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WAS EXTENDED THROUGH TONIGHT.
A FEW GUSTS TO NEAR GALE FORCE ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING.
THE WIND WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH TONIGHT...BUT GUSTS OF 25-30 KNOTS
ARE LIKELY MOST OF THE NIGHT.

SHORT TERM: A LOW-LEVEL JET OF 35-45KT WILL SET UP OVER THE
WATERS LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. EXPECT AT LEAST PART
OF THIS WILL BE ABLE TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE OWING TO THE
RELATIVELY WARM WATERS, SO WOULD ANTICIPATE AT LEAST A HIGH-END
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED, IF NOT A GALE WATCH/WARNING.
LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TRENDS CLOSELY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CB
SHORT TERM...HASTINGS
LONG TERM...HASTINGS
AVIATION...CB/HASTINGS
MARINE...CB/HASTINGS



000
FXUS61 KCAR 210511
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1211 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OF THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. A
WEAK WARM FRONT CROSSES THE AREA LATER SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE
MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON MONDAY WILL BRING RAIN
AND WARMER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
1210 AM UPDATE...IT IS MAINLY CLEAR ACROSS THE CWA. A SURFACE
TROUGH NW OF THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER WILL ADVANCE TOWARD THE AREA
OVERNIGHT AND WILL BRING CLOUDS INTO WESTERN MAINE TOWARD MORNING
ALONG WITH SOME FLURRIES AND ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES
ARE FALLING INTO THE TEENS AND LOW 20S AS OF MIDNIGHT ACROSS
NORTHERN MAINE WITH M/U 20S DOWNEAST. BY DAYBREAK LOWS WILL BE IN
THE LOW/MID TEENS ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE WITH LOW 20S ALONG THE
COAST. ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO THE ONGOING FORECAST BASED ON THE
LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE PICTURES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE ARCTIC FRONT IS CURRENTLY ENTERING THE WESTERN MAINE BORDER
AND WILL PROPAGATE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
THIS EVENING WITH GUSTY WINDS...SNOW SQUALLS AND RAPIDLY FALLING
TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS FRONT COULD DROP A QUICK INCH
OR TWO OF WIND-BLOWN SNOW AND CREATE HAZARDOUS DRIVING FOR THE
CROWN OF MAINE THIS EVENING DUE TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES. VARIOUS
MEASURES OF LIFT ARE QUITE IMPRESSIVE WITH THIS FRONT. THERE ARE
STEEP LAPSE RATES...AROUND 150 J/KG OF CAPE AND CONSIDERABLE
SHEAR. GUSTS OF 35 MPH TO 40 MPH SHOULD BE EASILY ATTAINABLE. WITH
TOPS APPROACHING H600...QUARTER-MILE VISIBILITIES ARE QUITE
POSSIBLE IN THE SNOW SHOWERS. FURTHER SOUTH...THE FRONT WILL JUST
BRING A WIND SHIFT AND SHARPLY COLDER TEMPERATURES. LOWS WILL DROP
INTO THE TEENS NORTH AND LOWER 20S FOR BANGOR AND DOWN EAST BY
LATE TONIGHT. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL STILL CROSS FRIDAY MORNING AND
WILL LIKELY SET OFF MORE SNOW SHOWERS ON FRIDAY MORNING NORTH OF
HOULTON. NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 30 MPH AND WIND CHILLS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS WILL BE THE BIGGEST STORY FOR FRIDAY. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL CREATE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR MOST LOCATIONS...BUT
DOWNSLOPE DRYING SHOULD ALLOW SOME SUNSHINE TOWARDS BANGOR. HIGHS
WILL BE MID 20S NORTH AND AROUND 30F FOR BANGOR AND DOWN EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ANOTHER S/WV WILL AFFECT THE REGION THIS TERM W/A MODERATION IN
THE AIRMASS BY SUNDAY.

HIGH PRES IS FORECAST TO SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT
W/PARTIAL CLEARING EXPECTED. ANOTHER COLD NIGHT W/OVERNIGHT LOWS
FORECAST TO BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST
WHILE LOWER TEENS FOR CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST. THE S/WV MOVES ACROSS
THE REGION LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THE NAM
AND GFS BOTH SHOW SOME MID LEVEL FORCING W/DECENT RH THROUGH
700MBS. DECIDED TO INCLUDE 30-40% POPS FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON
W/SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST WHERE THE BEST
FORCING WILL BE SITUATED. QPF WILL BE NO MORE THAN 0.05" AND W/A
10:1 SNOW RATIO, DECIDED TO SHOW UP TO 1/2 INCH OF SNOWFALL ACROSS
THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS.

SUNDAY IS EXPECTED TO START OUT CLOUDY W/SOME LEFTOVER SNOW
SHOWER/FLURRIES AND THEN CLEARING IS EXPECTED. A GRADUAL
MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED AS WARMER AIR BEGINS TO
PUSH IN FROM THE WSW. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO CLIMB
IN THE MID/UPPER 30S ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA WHILE
CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST COULD SEE LOW TO MID 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRES WILL RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY W/A CONTINUED WARMUP.

THE 12Z RUNS OF THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE SHOW AN INTENSE LOW PRES
SYSTEM FORECAST TO MOVING N ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON
MONDAY. AS IT DOES SO, IT WILL BRING AN OCCLUDED FRONT ACROSS THE
NEW ENGLAND REGION INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THE 12Z ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN
BETTER AGREEMENT W/TIMING AND QPF. THERE IS SOME DIFLUENCE ALOFT
COMBINED W/A 55 KT LLVL JET TO SUPPORT SOME HEAVIER RAINFALL
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME WIND
GUSTS OF 40 MPH ACROSS THE DOWNEAST AND EASTERN 3RD OF MAINE LATE
MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD
AND ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE NOVEMBER RIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT
W/TEMPERATURES ACTUALLY RISING OVERNIGHT ON SSW WINDS.

THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE A LULL IN THE WINDS AND THEN ANOTHER
SURGE EARLY TUESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT AND CAA. BUFKIT PROFILES SHOW
GUST POTENTIAL FOR 45 MPH DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ON TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE HIT IN THE MORNING ON TUESDAY AND
THEN THEY WILL FALL BACK DURING THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS POTENTIAL
HIGH TUESDAY MORNING TO ACTUALLY HIT THE 50S BEFORE COOLING OFF.
A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY
W/ANOTHER SURGE OF COLDER AIR W/TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR NORMAL
LEVELS AND THE THREAT FOR SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR OVERNIGHT. MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED NORTH OF HUL
FRIDAY MORNING.

SHORT TERM: VFR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THERE IS POTENTIAL
FOR A PERIOD OF MVFR FOR KCAR, KPQI AND KFVE SATURDAY AFTERNOON
W/SHSN. VFR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY FOR ALL TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: CONTINUED STRONG SCA THROUGH FRIDAY. A FEW GUSTS MAY
REACH 35 KTS...BUT LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD DO NOT SUPPORT A
SUSTAINED GALE IN SPITE OF THE STRONG COLD AIR MOVING OVER THE
RELATIVELY WARMER WATERS.

SHORT TERM: SCA POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN A LULL
FOR EARLY SATURDAY. ANOTHER SURGE OF SCA CONDITIONS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY. DECIDED TO KEEP GUSTS AT 30 KTS W/THE NEXT
S/WV SATURDAY EVENING. BEST SHOT FOR ANY GALE FORCE GUSTS WILL BE
OVER THE OUTER WATERS. DID NOT STRAY TOO FAR FROM THE MIDNIGHT
CREW`S ASSESSMENT W/THE WINDS ATTM. WAVE HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO
BUILD SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY TO 6-7 FT.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CB/MCW
SHORT TERM...HEWITT/VJN
LONG TERM...NORTON
AVIATION...CB/MCW/HEWITT/VJN
MARINE...CB/MCW/HEWITT/VJN




000
FXUS61 KGYX 210506
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1206 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT WITH COLD AIR
SETTLING INTO PLACE ON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE SOUTH
OVER THE WEEKEND...AS A WEAK WAVE CLIPS THE NORTHERN AREAS. LOW
PRESSURE WILL TRACK OUT OF THE MIDWEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES MONDAY...PUSHING A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE REGION LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...BRING SOME RAIN TO THE
REGION...WITH A CHANCE IT WILL START AS SOME FREEZING RAIN IN THE
VALLEYS. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE
MOVING OFFSHORE COULD BRING SOME PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

1203 AM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO INGEST MESONET INTO 1ST PERIOD
GRIDS.

PREV DISC...
910 PM UPDATE...LITTLE CHANGE TO THE LATEST FORECAST.
CLEARING CONTINUES TO TAKE PLACE AND ANY SQUALL ACTIVITY HAS
EXITED THE THE CWA. EXPECT UPSLOPE CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
WHITES AND WESTERN MAINE MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT...OTHERWISE IT WILL
BE MOSTLY CLEAR AND COLD.

6 PM UPDATE...COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS MAINE AT THIS TIME
AND IS ACCOMPANIED BY A LINE OF SNOW SQUALLS FROM NORTHERN
KENNEBEC COUNTY ON NORTH AND WEST. THESE SHOULD CLEAR THE CWA IN
THE NEXT TWO HOURS OR SO BUT MAY PRODUCE BRIEF WHITEOUT CONDITIONS
IN THE MEANTIME. OTHERWISE...JUST FAIR AND BLUSTERY CONDITIONS.

PREVIOUSLY...

A COLD FRONT IS MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
WHILE THERE IS WIDESPREAD RADAR ECHOS... THE ONLY SCATTERED
REPORTS OF SNOW ACCUMULATION. AN ADDITIONAL CONCERN OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS IS THE CHANCE FOR SNOW SQUALLS ALONG THE LEADING
EDGE OF THE COLD AIR. MOISTURE FROM THE LONG LASTING LAKE EFFECT
SNOW EVENT IN NEW YORK IS GETTING ENTRAINED INTO THE FLOW AND IS
HELPING TO GENERATE ISOLATED HEAVY SNOW OVER VERMONT. THESE SNOW
SQUALLS WILL MOVE EAST AND WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
OVERNIGHT THE COLD AIR MOVES INTO PLACE ALOFT WITH TEMPERATURES
DIPPING INTO THE TEENS. IN THE NORTH CLOUD COVER FROM UPSLOPE FLOW
SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES OUT OF THE SINGLE DIGITS...ALTHOUGH
COLDER TEMPS IN ISOLATED VALLEYS ARE POSSIBLE. THE BIG CONCERN FOR
FRIDAY WILL BE GUSTY WINDS AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLANE WINDS WILL GUST INTO THE 20MPH RANGE. A FEW ISOLATED
GUSTS TO 35 TO 40MPH ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST,
HOWEVER THIS WILL STILL BE BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.

BY FRIDAY NIGHT WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE AS THE COLD AIR
SHIFTS EASTWARDS AND A HIGH BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH ON
SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL ACTUALLY BE SLIGHTLY COLDER FRIDAY
NIGHT AS CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR THE VALLEYS TO DECOUPLE AND
DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
500 MB +PNA PATTERN BECOMES LESS AMPLIFIED OVER THE WEEKEND AND
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A WARM UP ACROSS
THE REGION BECOMING QUITE NOTICEABLE SUNDAY AND MONDAY...AS 850MB
TEMPS LOOK TO SURPASS +10C ON MONDAY...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS AND SOME
RAIN THAT DAY WILL KEEP THINGS FROM WARMING UP TOO MUCH. 12Z GFS
AND EURO WANT TO DEEPEN THE CENTRAL CONUS TROUGH AND PUP UP THE
WEST COAST RIDGE MID TO LATE IN THE WEEK...AND DEVELOP AN
OFFSHORE LOW. THEY DIFFER ON INTENSITY AND TIMING /BY ABOUT 24
HOURS AT THIS POINT/ BUT WORTH NOTING SINCE IT IS DURING
HOLIDAY/TRAVEL PERIOD.

WEAK LOW TRACKS JUST N OF THE INTL BORDER ON SAT AND COULD PRODUCE
A FEW SHSN IN THE N ZONES ESPECIALLY LATE SAT AND SAT NIGHT...BUT
SHOULD STAY DRY IN THE SRN ZONES WITH HIGHS A LITTLE WARMER THAN
FRIDAY...BUT STILL UNLIKELY TO BREAK 40 IN THE S AND FREEZING IN
THE N. WINDS SHIFT MORE W-SW BEHIND THIS SYSTEM AND TEMPS WILL
NOT FALL OFF MUCH SAT NIGHT. THE WARMER AIR BEGINS TO FILTER ON
SUNDAY AND HIGHS WILL BE ABOUT 10F WARMER THAN SATURDAY...IN THE
UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S.

500MB CLOSED LOW DEEPENS OVER THE N CENTRAL CONUS SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE LIFTING NE INTO THE ST LAWRENCE VLY ON
MONDAY. WAA TO THE EAST OF THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
REGION SUN NIGHT...WITH WARM AIR IN PLACE ALOFT. QUESTION IS HOW
COLD WILL IT GET SUN NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE PRECIP? MOST PLACES
EXCEPT FOR THE COLD SPOTS IN THE MTNS SHOULD SEE TEMPS STAY ABV
FREEZING OVERNIGHT...BUT COULD SEE A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN IN
SOME OF THE MTN VLYS LATE SUN NIGHT INTO EARLY MON.

ON MON...WILL BREAK INTO THE WARM SECTOR ALOFT...BUT IT REMAINS TO
BE SEEN IF WE CAN MIX ANY OF THIS DOWN TO THE SFC. STILL...EVEN
WITH CLOUDS...SW FLOW SHOULD BRING IN WARM ENOUGH AIR AT THE SFC
TO PUSH TEMPS ABOVE 50 IN MANY SPOTS...AND DEPENDING ON IF THERE
ARE ANY PROLONGED BREAKS OF SUN...COULD SEE A FEW SPOTS MAKE A RUN
AT 60. THERE WILL BE A THREAT OF SHRA ON MON IN ADVANCE OF COLD
FROPA LATE IN THE DAY. WEAK RIDGING ON TUE SHOULD PROVIDE A MAINLY
DRY DAY...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS...BUT DOWNSLOPE WILL HELP
KEEP TEMPS ABV NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...HIE WILL SEE MVFR IN SNOW THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
ELSEWHERE CEILINGS WILL BE VFR WITH NW WINDS GUSTING TO 25KTS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...POTENTIAL FOR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS IN RA AND STRATUS
SUN NIGHT INTO EARLY MON.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM... A FEW ISOLATED GUSTS TO 35KTS THROUGH THIS EVENING.
OVERNIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY AS COLD AIR ADVECTION
SETS IN. FRIDAY MAY SEE WINDS INCREASE TO GALE FORCE OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS... AND HAVE ISSUED A GALE WATCH.

LONG TERM...SW FLOW COULD PICK UP ON SUN TO SCA LVLS AND PERSIST
INTO MONDAY. SCA TO LOW GALES POSSIBLE IN W-NW FLOW BEHIND A COLD
FRONT MON NIGHT INTO TUE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ151-
     153.
     GALE WATCH FROM 7 AM EST THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ150-152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ150-
     152-154.

&&

$$
ES




000
FXUS61 KGYX 210506
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1206 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT WITH COLD AIR
SETTLING INTO PLACE ON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE SOUTH
OVER THE WEEKEND...AS A WEAK WAVE CLIPS THE NORTHERN AREAS. LOW
PRESSURE WILL TRACK OUT OF THE MIDWEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES MONDAY...PUSHING A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE REGION LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...BRING SOME RAIN TO THE
REGION...WITH A CHANCE IT WILL START AS SOME FREEZING RAIN IN THE
VALLEYS. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE
MOVING OFFSHORE COULD BRING SOME PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

1203 AM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO INGEST MESONET INTO 1ST PERIOD
GRIDS.

PREV DISC...
910 PM UPDATE...LITTLE CHANGE TO THE LATEST FORECAST.
CLEARING CONTINUES TO TAKE PLACE AND ANY SQUALL ACTIVITY HAS
EXITED THE THE CWA. EXPECT UPSLOPE CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
WHITES AND WESTERN MAINE MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT...OTHERWISE IT WILL
BE MOSTLY CLEAR AND COLD.

6 PM UPDATE...COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS MAINE AT THIS TIME
AND IS ACCOMPANIED BY A LINE OF SNOW SQUALLS FROM NORTHERN
KENNEBEC COUNTY ON NORTH AND WEST. THESE SHOULD CLEAR THE CWA IN
THE NEXT TWO HOURS OR SO BUT MAY PRODUCE BRIEF WHITEOUT CONDITIONS
IN THE MEANTIME. OTHERWISE...JUST FAIR AND BLUSTERY CONDITIONS.

PREVIOUSLY...

A COLD FRONT IS MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
WHILE THERE IS WIDESPREAD RADAR ECHOS... THE ONLY SCATTERED
REPORTS OF SNOW ACCUMULATION. AN ADDITIONAL CONCERN OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS IS THE CHANCE FOR SNOW SQUALLS ALONG THE LEADING
EDGE OF THE COLD AIR. MOISTURE FROM THE LONG LASTING LAKE EFFECT
SNOW EVENT IN NEW YORK IS GETTING ENTRAINED INTO THE FLOW AND IS
HELPING TO GENERATE ISOLATED HEAVY SNOW OVER VERMONT. THESE SNOW
SQUALLS WILL MOVE EAST AND WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
OVERNIGHT THE COLD AIR MOVES INTO PLACE ALOFT WITH TEMPERATURES
DIPPING INTO THE TEENS. IN THE NORTH CLOUD COVER FROM UPSLOPE FLOW
SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES OUT OF THE SINGLE DIGITS...ALTHOUGH
COLDER TEMPS IN ISOLATED VALLEYS ARE POSSIBLE. THE BIG CONCERN FOR
FRIDAY WILL BE GUSTY WINDS AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLANE WINDS WILL GUST INTO THE 20MPH RANGE. A FEW ISOLATED
GUSTS TO 35 TO 40MPH ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST,
HOWEVER THIS WILL STILL BE BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.

BY FRIDAY NIGHT WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE AS THE COLD AIR
SHIFTS EASTWARDS AND A HIGH BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH ON
SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL ACTUALLY BE SLIGHTLY COLDER FRIDAY
NIGHT AS CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR THE VALLEYS TO DECOUPLE AND
DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
500 MB +PNA PATTERN BECOMES LESS AMPLIFIED OVER THE WEEKEND AND
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A WARM UP ACROSS
THE REGION BECOMING QUITE NOTICEABLE SUNDAY AND MONDAY...AS 850MB
TEMPS LOOK TO SURPASS +10C ON MONDAY...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS AND SOME
RAIN THAT DAY WILL KEEP THINGS FROM WARMING UP TOO MUCH. 12Z GFS
AND EURO WANT TO DEEPEN THE CENTRAL CONUS TROUGH AND PUP UP THE
WEST COAST RIDGE MID TO LATE IN THE WEEK...AND DEVELOP AN
OFFSHORE LOW. THEY DIFFER ON INTENSITY AND TIMING /BY ABOUT 24
HOURS AT THIS POINT/ BUT WORTH NOTING SINCE IT IS DURING
HOLIDAY/TRAVEL PERIOD.

WEAK LOW TRACKS JUST N OF THE INTL BORDER ON SAT AND COULD PRODUCE
A FEW SHSN IN THE N ZONES ESPECIALLY LATE SAT AND SAT NIGHT...BUT
SHOULD STAY DRY IN THE SRN ZONES WITH HIGHS A LITTLE WARMER THAN
FRIDAY...BUT STILL UNLIKELY TO BREAK 40 IN THE S AND FREEZING IN
THE N. WINDS SHIFT MORE W-SW BEHIND THIS SYSTEM AND TEMPS WILL
NOT FALL OFF MUCH SAT NIGHT. THE WARMER AIR BEGINS TO FILTER ON
SUNDAY AND HIGHS WILL BE ABOUT 10F WARMER THAN SATURDAY...IN THE
UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S.

500MB CLOSED LOW DEEPENS OVER THE N CENTRAL CONUS SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE LIFTING NE INTO THE ST LAWRENCE VLY ON
MONDAY. WAA TO THE EAST OF THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
REGION SUN NIGHT...WITH WARM AIR IN PLACE ALOFT. QUESTION IS HOW
COLD WILL IT GET SUN NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE PRECIP? MOST PLACES
EXCEPT FOR THE COLD SPOTS IN THE MTNS SHOULD SEE TEMPS STAY ABV
FREEZING OVERNIGHT...BUT COULD SEE A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN IN
SOME OF THE MTN VLYS LATE SUN NIGHT INTO EARLY MON.

ON MON...WILL BREAK INTO THE WARM SECTOR ALOFT...BUT IT REMAINS TO
BE SEEN IF WE CAN MIX ANY OF THIS DOWN TO THE SFC. STILL...EVEN
WITH CLOUDS...SW FLOW SHOULD BRING IN WARM ENOUGH AIR AT THE SFC
TO PUSH TEMPS ABOVE 50 IN MANY SPOTS...AND DEPENDING ON IF THERE
ARE ANY PROLONGED BREAKS OF SUN...COULD SEE A FEW SPOTS MAKE A RUN
AT 60. THERE WILL BE A THREAT OF SHRA ON MON IN ADVANCE OF COLD
FROPA LATE IN THE DAY. WEAK RIDGING ON TUE SHOULD PROVIDE A MAINLY
DRY DAY...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS...BUT DOWNSLOPE WILL HELP
KEEP TEMPS ABV NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...HIE WILL SEE MVFR IN SNOW THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
ELSEWHERE CEILINGS WILL BE VFR WITH NW WINDS GUSTING TO 25KTS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...POTENTIAL FOR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS IN RA AND STRATUS
SUN NIGHT INTO EARLY MON.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM... A FEW ISOLATED GUSTS TO 35KTS THROUGH THIS EVENING.
OVERNIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY AS COLD AIR ADVECTION
SETS IN. FRIDAY MAY SEE WINDS INCREASE TO GALE FORCE OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS... AND HAVE ISSUED A GALE WATCH.

LONG TERM...SW FLOW COULD PICK UP ON SUN TO SCA LVLS AND PERSIST
INTO MONDAY. SCA TO LOW GALES POSSIBLE IN W-NW FLOW BEHIND A COLD
FRONT MON NIGHT INTO TUE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ151-
     153.
     GALE WATCH FROM 7 AM EST THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ150-152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ150-
     152-154.

&&

$$
ES



000
FXUS61 KGYX 210210
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
910 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT WITH COLD AIR
SETTLING INTO PLACE ON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE SOUTH
OVER THE WEEKEND..AS A WEAK WAVE CLIPS THE NORTHERN AREAS. LOW
PRESSURE WILL TRACK OUT OF THE MIDWEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES MONDAY...PUSHING A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE REGION LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...BRING SOME RAIN TO THE
REGION...WITH A CHANCE IT WILL START AS SOME FREEZING RAIN IN THE
VALLEYS. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE
MOVING OFFSHORE COULD BRING SOME PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
910 PM UPDATE...LITTLE CHANGE TO THE LATEST FORECAST. CLEARING
CONTINUES TO TAKE PLACE AND ANY SQUALL ACTIVITY HAS EXITED THE
THE CWA. EXPECT UPSLOPE CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS IN THE WHITES AND
WESTERN MAINE MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT...OTHERWISE IT WILL BE MOSTLY
CLEAR AND COLD.

6 PM UPDATE...COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS MAINE AT THIS TIME
AND IS ACCOMPANIED BY A LINE OF SNOW SQUALLS FROM NORTHERN
KENNEBEC COUNTY ON NORTH AND WEST. THESE SHOULD CLEAR THE CWA IN
THE NEXT TWO HOURS OR SO BUT MAY PRODUCE BRIEF WHITEOUT CONDITIONS
IN THE MEANTIME. OTHERWISE...JUST FAIR AND BLUSTERY CONDITIONS.

PREVIOUSLY...

A COLD FRONT IS MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
WHILE THERE IS WIDESPREAD RADAR ECHOS... THE ONLY SCATTERED
REPORTS OF SNOW ACCUMULATION. AN ADDITIONAL CONCERN OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS IS THE CHANCE FOR SNOW SQUALLS ALONG THE LEADING
EDGE OF THE COLD AIR. MOISTURE FROM THE LONG LASTING LAKE EFFECT
SNOW EVENT IN NEW YORK IS GETTING ENTRAINED INTO THE FLOW AND IS
HELPING TO GENERATE ISOLATED HEAVY SNOW OVER VERMONT. THESE SNOW
SQUALLS WILL MOVE EAST AND WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
OVERNIGHT THE COLD AIR MOVES INTO PLACE ALOFT WITH TEMPERATURES
DIPPING INTO THE TEENS. IN THE NORTH CLOUD COVER FROM UPSLOPE FLOW
SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES OUT OF THE SINGLE DIGITS...ALTHOUGH
COLDER TEMPS IN ISOLATED VALLEYS ARE POSSIBLE. THE BIG CONCERN FOR
FRIDAY WILL BE GUSTY WINDS AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLANE WINDS WILL GUST INTO THE 20MPH RANGE. A FEW ISOLATED
GUSTS TO 35 TO 40MPH ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST,
HOWEVER THIS WILL STILL BE BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.

BY FRIDAY NIGHT WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE AS THE COLD AIR
SHIFTS EASTWARDS AND A HIGH BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH ON
SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL ACTUALLY BE SLIGHTLY COLDER FRIDAY
NIGHT AS CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR THE VALLEYS TO DECOUPLE AND
DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
500 MB +PNA PATTERN BECOMES LESS AMPLIFIED OVER THE WEEKEND AND
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A WARM UP ACROSS
THE REGION BECOMING QUITE NOTICEABLE SUNDAY AND MONDAY...AS 850MB
TEMPS LOOK TO SURPASS +10C ON MONDAY...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS AND SOME
RAIN THAT DAY WILL KEEP THINGS FROM WARMING UP TOO MUCH. 12Z GFS
AND EURO WANT TO DEEPEN THE CENTRAL CONUS TROUGH AND PUP UP THE
WEST COAST RIDGE MID TO LATE IN THE WEEK...AND DEVELOP AN
OFFSHORE LOW. THEY DIFFER ON INTENSITY AND TIMING /BY ABOUT 24
HOURS AT THIS POINT/ BUT WORTH NOTING SINCE IT IS DURING
HOLIDAY/TRAVEL PERIOD.

WEAK LOW TRACKS JUST N OF THE INTL BORDER ON SAT AND COULD PRODUCE
A FEW SHSN IN THE N ZONES ESPECIALLY LATE SAT AND SAT NIGHT...BUT
SHOULD STAY DRY IN THE SRN ZONES WITH HIGHS A LITTLE WARMER THAN
FRIDAY...BUT STILL UNLIKELY TO BREAK 40 IN THE S AND FREEZING IN
THE N. WINDS SHIFT MORE W-SW BEHIND THIS SYSTEM AND TEMPS WILL
NOT FALL OFF MUCH SAT NIGHT. THE WARMER AIR BEGINS TO FILTER ON
SUNDAY AND HIGHS WILL BE ABOUT 10F WARMER THAN SATURDAY...IN THE
UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S.

500MB CLOSED LOW DEEPENS OVER THE N CENTRAL CONUS SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE LIFTING NE INTO THE ST LAWRENCE VLY ON
MONDAY. WAA TO THE EAST OF THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
REGION SUN NIGHT...WITH WARM AIR IN PLACE ALOFT. QUESTION IS HOW
COLD WILL IT GET SUN NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE PRECIP? MOST PLACES
EXCEPT FOR THE COLD SPOTS IN THE MTNS SHOULD SEE TEMPS STAY ABV
FREEZING OVERNIGHT...BUT COULD SEE A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN IN
SOME OF THE MTN VLYS LATE SUN NIGHT INTO EARLY MON.

ON MON...WILL BREAK INTO THE WARM SECTOR ALOFT...BUT IT REMAINSTO
BE SEEN IF WE CAN MIX ANY OF THIS DOWN TO THE SFC. STILL...EVEN
WITH CLOUDS...SW FLOW SHOULD BRING IN WARM ENOUGH AIR AT THE SFC
TO PUSH TEMPS ABOVE 50 IN MANY SPOTS...AND DEPENDING ON IF THERE
ARE ANY PROLONGED BREAKS OF SUN...COULD SEE A FEW SPOTS MAKE A RUN
AT 60. THERE WILL BE A THREAT  OF SHRA ON MON IN ADVANCE OF COLD
FROPA LATE IN THE DAY. WEAK RIDGING ON TUE SHOULD PROVIDE A MAINLY
DRY DAY...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS...BUT DOWNSLOPE WILL HELP
KEEP TEMPS ABV NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...HIE WILL SEE MVFR IN SNOW THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
ELSEWHERE CEILINGS WILL BE VFR WITH NW WINDS GUSTING TO 25KTS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...POTENTIAL FOR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS IN RA AND STRATUS
SUN NIGHT INTO EARLY MON.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM... A FEW ISOLATED GUSTS TO 35KTS THROUGH THIS EVENING.
OVERNIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY AS COLD AIR ADVECTION
SETS IN. FRIDAY MAY SEE WINDS INCREASE TO GALE FORCE OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS... AND HAVE ISSUED A GALE WATCH.

LONG TERM...SW FLOW COULD PICK UP ON SUN TO SCA LVLS AND PERSIST
INTO MONDAY. SCA TO LOW GALES POSSIBLE IN W-NW FLOW BEHIND A COLD
FRONT MON NIGHT INTO TUE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ151-153.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CEMPA/CURTIS
NEAR TERM UPDATE...MLE
SHORT TERM...CURTIS
LONG TERM...CEMPA
AVIATION...CEMPA/CURTIS
MARINE...CEMPA/CURTIS




000
FXUS61 KCAR 210203
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
903 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. A WEAK WARM FRONT CROSSES
THE AREA LATER SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES REGION ON MONDAY WILL BRING RAIN AND WARMER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LINE OF SNOW SHOWERS THAT MOVED THROUGH THE AREA HAS
ACCELERATED EAST INTO NEW BRUNSWICK. THE TAIL END OF THE LINE
LINGERS IN WASHINGTON COUNTY BUT IS DIMINISHING. EXPECT A PARTLY
CLOUDY NIGHT OVERNIGHT. SOME FLURRIES AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MAY
COME THROUGH AGAIN IN THE MORNING AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACCESS
MOVES THROUGH. UPDATED FORECAST TO REFLECT THIS.

THE ARCTIC FRONT IS CURRENTLY ENTERING THE WESTERN MAINE BORDER
AND WILL PROPAGATE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
THIS EVENING WITH GUSTY WINDS...SNOW SQUALLS AND RAPIDLY FALLING
TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS FRONT COULD DROP A QUICK INCH
OR TWO OF WIND-BLOWN SNOW AND CREATE HAZARDOUS DRIVING FOR THE
CROWN OF MAINE THIS EVENING DUE TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES. VARIOUS
MEASURES OF LIFT ARE QUITE IMPRESSIVE WITH THIS FRONT. THERE ARE
STEEP LAPSE RATES...AROUND 150 J/KG OF CAPE AND CONSIDERABLE
SHEAR. GUSTS OF 35 MPH TO 40 MPH SHOULD BE EASILY ATTAINABLE. WITH
TOPS APPROACHING H600...QUARTER-MILE VISIBILITIES ARE QUITE
POSSIBLE IN THE SNOW SHOWERS. FURTHER SOUTH...THE FRONT WILL JUST
BRING A WIND SHIFT AND SHARPLY COLDER TEMPERATURES. LOWS WILL DROP
INTO THE TEENS NORTH AND LOWER 20S FOR BANGOR AND DOWN EAST BY
LATE TONIGHT. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL STILL CROSS FRIDAY MORNING AND
WILL LIKELY SET OFF MORE SNOW SHOWERS ON FRIDAY MORNING NORTH OF
HOULTON. NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 30 MPH AND WIND CHILLS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS WILL BE THE BIGGEST STORY FOR FRIDAY. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL CREATE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR MOST LOCATIONS...BUT
DOWNSLOPE DRYING SHOULD ALLOW SOME SUNSHINE TOWARDS BANGOR. HIGHS
WILL BE MID 20S NORTH AND AROUND 30F FOR BANGOR AND DOWN EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ANOTHER S/WV WILL AFFECT THE REGION THIS TERM W/A MODERATION IN
THE AIRMASS BY SUNDAY.

HIGH PRES IS FORECAST TO SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT
W/PARTIAL CLEARING EXPECTED. ANOTHER COLD NIGHT W/OVERNIGHT LOWS
FORECAST TO BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST
WHILE LOWER TEENS FOR CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST. THE S/WV MOVES ACROSS
THE REGION LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THE NAM
AND GFS BOTH SHOW SOME MID LEVEL FORCING W/DECENT RH THROUGH
700MBS. DECIDED TO INCLUDE 30-40% POPS FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON
W/SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST WHERE THE BEST
FORCING WILL BE SITUATED. QPF WILL BE NO MORE THAN 0.05" AND W/A
10:1 SNOW RATIO, DECIDED TO SHOW UP TO 1/2 INCH OF SNOWFALL ACROSS
THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS.

SUNDAY IS EXPECTED TO START OUT CLOUDY W/SOME LEFTOVER SNOW
SHOWER/FLURRIES AND THEN CLEARING IS EXPECTED. A GRADUAL
MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED AS WARMER AIR BEGINS TO
PUSH IN FROM THE WSW. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO CLIMB
IN THE MID/UPPER 30S ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA WHILE
CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST COULD SEE LOW TO MID 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRES WILL RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY W/A CONTINUED WARMUP.

THE 12Z RUNS OF THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE SHOW AN INTENSE LOW PRES
SYSTEM FORECAST TO MOVING N ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON
MONDAY. AS IT DOES SO, IT WILL BRING AN OCCLUDED FRONT ACROSS THE
NEW ENGLAND REGION INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THE 12Z ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN
BETTER AGREEMENT W/TIMING AND QPF. THERE IS SOME DIFLUENCE ALOFT
COMBINED W/A 55 KT LLVL JET TO SUPPORT SOME HEAVIER RAINFALL
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME WIND
GUSTS OF 40 MPH ACROSS THE DOWNEAST AND EASTERN 3RD OF MAINE LATE
MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD
AND ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE NOVEMBER RIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT
W/TEMPERATURES ACTUALLY RISING OVERNIGHT ON SSW WINDS.

THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE A LULL IN THE WINDS AND THEN ANOTHER
SURGE EARLY TUESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT AND CAA. BUFKIT PROFILES SHOW
GUST POTENTIAL FOR 45 MPH DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ON TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE HIT IN THE MORNING ON TUESDAY AND
THEN THEY WILL FALL BACK DURING THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS POTENTIAL
HIGH TUESDAY MORNING TO ACTUALLY HIT THE 50S BEFORE COOLING OFF.
A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY
W/ANOTHER SURGE OF COLDER AIR W/TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR NORMAL
LEVELS AND THE THREAT FOR SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM:  VFR OUTSIDE OF SNOW SQUALLS THAT WILL PASS THROUGH
FVE...CAR AND PQI THIS EVENING. SOME MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED NORTH
OF HUL FRIDAY MORNING.

SHORT TERM: VFR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THERE IS POTENTIAL
FOR A PERIOD OF MVFR FOR KCAR, KPQI AND KFVE SATURDAY AFTERNOON
W/SHSN. VFR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY FOR ALL TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: CONTINUED STRONG SCA THROUGH FRIDAY. A FEW GUSTS MAY
REACH 35 KTS...BUT LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD DO NOT SUPPORT A
SUSTAINED GALE IN SPITE OF THE STRONG COLD AIR MOVING OVER THE
RELATIVELY WARMER WATERS.

SHORT TERM: SCA POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN A LULL
FOR EARLY SATURDAY. ANOTHER SURGE OF SCA CONDITIONS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY. DECIDED TO KEEP GUSTS AT 30 KTS W/THE NEXT
S/WV SATURDAY EVENING. BEST SHOT FOR ANY GALE FORCE GUSTS WILL BE
OVER THE OUTER WATERS. DID NOT STRAY TOO FAR FROM THE MIDNIGHT
CREW`S ASSESSMENT W/THE WINDS ATTM. WAVE HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO
BUILD SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY TO 6-7 FT.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MCW/MCB
SHORT TERM...HEWITT/VJN
LONG TERM...NORTON
AVIATION...MCW/HEWITT/VJN
MARINE...MCW/HEWITT/VJN



000
FXUS61 KCAR 210203
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
903 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. A WEAK WARM FRONT CROSSES
THE AREA LATER SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES REGION ON MONDAY WILL BRING RAIN AND WARMER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LINE OF SNOW SHOWERS THAT MOVED THROUGH THE AREA HAS
ACCELERATED EAST INTO NEW BRUNSWICK. THE TAIL END OF THE LINE
LINGERS IN WASHINGTON COUNTY BUT IS DIMINISHING. EXPECT A PARTLY
CLOUDY NIGHT OVERNIGHT. SOME FLURRIES AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MAY
COME THROUGH AGAIN IN THE MORNING AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACCESS
MOVES THROUGH. UPDATED FORECAST TO REFLECT THIS.

THE ARCTIC FRONT IS CURRENTLY ENTERING THE WESTERN MAINE BORDER
AND WILL PROPAGATE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
THIS EVENING WITH GUSTY WINDS...SNOW SQUALLS AND RAPIDLY FALLING
TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS FRONT COULD DROP A QUICK INCH
OR TWO OF WIND-BLOWN SNOW AND CREATE HAZARDOUS DRIVING FOR THE
CROWN OF MAINE THIS EVENING DUE TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES. VARIOUS
MEASURES OF LIFT ARE QUITE IMPRESSIVE WITH THIS FRONT. THERE ARE
STEEP LAPSE RATES...AROUND 150 J/KG OF CAPE AND CONSIDERABLE
SHEAR. GUSTS OF 35 MPH TO 40 MPH SHOULD BE EASILY ATTAINABLE. WITH
TOPS APPROACHING H600...QUARTER-MILE VISIBILITIES ARE QUITE
POSSIBLE IN THE SNOW SHOWERS. FURTHER SOUTH...THE FRONT WILL JUST
BRING A WIND SHIFT AND SHARPLY COLDER TEMPERATURES. LOWS WILL DROP
INTO THE TEENS NORTH AND LOWER 20S FOR BANGOR AND DOWN EAST BY
LATE TONIGHT. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL STILL CROSS FRIDAY MORNING AND
WILL LIKELY SET OFF MORE SNOW SHOWERS ON FRIDAY MORNING NORTH OF
HOULTON. NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 30 MPH AND WIND CHILLS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS WILL BE THE BIGGEST STORY FOR FRIDAY. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL CREATE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR MOST LOCATIONS...BUT
DOWNSLOPE DRYING SHOULD ALLOW SOME SUNSHINE TOWARDS BANGOR. HIGHS
WILL BE MID 20S NORTH AND AROUND 30F FOR BANGOR AND DOWN EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ANOTHER S/WV WILL AFFECT THE REGION THIS TERM W/A MODERATION IN
THE AIRMASS BY SUNDAY.

HIGH PRES IS FORECAST TO SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT
W/PARTIAL CLEARING EXPECTED. ANOTHER COLD NIGHT W/OVERNIGHT LOWS
FORECAST TO BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST
WHILE LOWER TEENS FOR CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST. THE S/WV MOVES ACROSS
THE REGION LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THE NAM
AND GFS BOTH SHOW SOME MID LEVEL FORCING W/DECENT RH THROUGH
700MBS. DECIDED TO INCLUDE 30-40% POPS FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON
W/SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST WHERE THE BEST
FORCING WILL BE SITUATED. QPF WILL BE NO MORE THAN 0.05" AND W/A
10:1 SNOW RATIO, DECIDED TO SHOW UP TO 1/2 INCH OF SNOWFALL ACROSS
THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS.

SUNDAY IS EXPECTED TO START OUT CLOUDY W/SOME LEFTOVER SNOW
SHOWER/FLURRIES AND THEN CLEARING IS EXPECTED. A GRADUAL
MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED AS WARMER AIR BEGINS TO
PUSH IN FROM THE WSW. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO CLIMB
IN THE MID/UPPER 30S ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA WHILE
CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST COULD SEE LOW TO MID 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRES WILL RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY W/A CONTINUED WARMUP.

THE 12Z RUNS OF THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE SHOW AN INTENSE LOW PRES
SYSTEM FORECAST TO MOVING N ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON
MONDAY. AS IT DOES SO, IT WILL BRING AN OCCLUDED FRONT ACROSS THE
NEW ENGLAND REGION INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THE 12Z ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN
BETTER AGREEMENT W/TIMING AND QPF. THERE IS SOME DIFLUENCE ALOFT
COMBINED W/A 55 KT LLVL JET TO SUPPORT SOME HEAVIER RAINFALL
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME WIND
GUSTS OF 40 MPH ACROSS THE DOWNEAST AND EASTERN 3RD OF MAINE LATE
MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD
AND ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE NOVEMBER RIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT
W/TEMPERATURES ACTUALLY RISING OVERNIGHT ON SSW WINDS.

THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE A LULL IN THE WINDS AND THEN ANOTHER
SURGE EARLY TUESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT AND CAA. BUFKIT PROFILES SHOW
GUST POTENTIAL FOR 45 MPH DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ON TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE HIT IN THE MORNING ON TUESDAY AND
THEN THEY WILL FALL BACK DURING THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS POTENTIAL
HIGH TUESDAY MORNING TO ACTUALLY HIT THE 50S BEFORE COOLING OFF.
A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY
W/ANOTHER SURGE OF COLDER AIR W/TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR NORMAL
LEVELS AND THE THREAT FOR SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM:  VFR OUTSIDE OF SNOW SQUALLS THAT WILL PASS THROUGH
FVE...CAR AND PQI THIS EVENING. SOME MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED NORTH
OF HUL FRIDAY MORNING.

SHORT TERM: VFR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THERE IS POTENTIAL
FOR A PERIOD OF MVFR FOR KCAR, KPQI AND KFVE SATURDAY AFTERNOON
W/SHSN. VFR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY FOR ALL TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: CONTINUED STRONG SCA THROUGH FRIDAY. A FEW GUSTS MAY
REACH 35 KTS...BUT LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD DO NOT SUPPORT A
SUSTAINED GALE IN SPITE OF THE STRONG COLD AIR MOVING OVER THE
RELATIVELY WARMER WATERS.

SHORT TERM: SCA POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN A LULL
FOR EARLY SATURDAY. ANOTHER SURGE OF SCA CONDITIONS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY. DECIDED TO KEEP GUSTS AT 30 KTS W/THE NEXT
S/WV SATURDAY EVENING. BEST SHOT FOR ANY GALE FORCE GUSTS WILL BE
OVER THE OUTER WATERS. DID NOT STRAY TOO FAR FROM THE MIDNIGHT
CREW`S ASSESSMENT W/THE WINDS ATTM. WAVE HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO
BUILD SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY TO 6-7 FT.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MCW/MCB
SHORT TERM...HEWITT/VJN
LONG TERM...NORTON
AVIATION...MCW/HEWITT/VJN
MARINE...MCW/HEWITT/VJN




000
FXUS61 KGYX 202303
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
603 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT WITH COLD AIR
SETTLING INTO PLACE ON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE SOUTH
OVER THE WEEKEND..AS A WEAK WAVE CLIPS THE NORTHERN AREAS. LOW
PRESSURE WILL TRACK OUT OF THE MIDWEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES MONDAY...PUSHING A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE REGION LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...BRING SOME RAIN TO THE
REGION...WITH A CHANCE IT WILL START AS SOME FREEZING RAIN IN THE
VALLEYS. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE
MOVING OFFSHORE COULD BRING SOME PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
6 PM UPDATE...COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS MAINE AT THIS TIME
AND IS ACCOMPANIED BY A LINE OF SNOW SQUALLS FROM NORTHERN
KENNEBEC COUNTY ON NORTH AND WEST. THESE SHOULD CLEAR THE CWA IN
THE NEXT TWO HOURS OR SO BUT MAY PRODUCE BRIEF WHITEOUT CONDITIONS
IN THE MEANTIME. OTHERWISE...JUST FAIR AND BLUSTERY CONDITIONS.

PREVIOUSLY...

A COLD FRONT IS MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
WHILE THERE IS WIDESPREAD RADAR ECHOS... THE ONLY SCATTERED
REPORTS OF SNOW ACCUMULATION. AN ADDITIONAL CONCERN OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS IS THE CHANCE FOR SNOW SQUALLS ALONG THE LEADING
EDGE OF THE COLD AIR. MOISTURE FROM THE LONG LASTING LAKE EFFECT
SNOW EVENT IN NEW YORK IS GETTING ENTRAINED INTO THE FLOW AND IS
HELPING TO GENERATE ISOLATED HEAVY SNOW OVER VERMONT. THESE SNOW
SQUALLS WILL MOVE EAST AND WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
OVERNIGHT THE COLD AIR MOVES INTO PLACE ALOFT WITH TEMPERATURES
DIPPING INTO THE TEENS. IN THE NORTH CLOUD COVER FROM UPSLOPE FLOW
SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES OUT OF THE SINGLE DIGITS...ALTHOUGH
COLDER TEMPS IN ISOLATED VALLEYS ARE POSSIBLE. THE BIG CONCERN FOR
FRIDAY WILL BE GUSTY WINDS AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLANE WINDS WILL GUST INTO THE 20MPH RANGE. A FEW ISOLATED
GUSTS TO 35 TO 40MPH ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST,
HOWEVER THIS WILL STILL BE BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.

BY FRIDAY NIGHT WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE AS THE COLD AIR
SHIFTS EASTWARDS AND A HIGH BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH ON
SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL ACTUALLY BE SLIGHTLY COLDER FRIDAY
NIGHT AS CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR THE VALLEYS TO DECOUPLE AND
DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
500 MB +PNA PATTERN BECOMES LESS AMPLIFIED OVER THE WEEKEND AND
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A WARM UP ACROSS
THE REGION BECOMING QUITE NOTICEABLE SUNDAY AND MONDAY...AS 850MB
TEMPS LOOK TO SURPASS +10C ON MONDAY...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS AND SOME
RAIN THAT DAY WILL KEEP THINGS FROM WARMING UP TOO MUCH. 12Z GFS
AND EURO WANT TO DEEPEN THE CENTRAL CONUS TROUGH AND PUP UP THE
WEST COAST RIDGE MID TO LATE IN THE WEEK...AND DEVELOP AN
OFFSHORE LOW. THEY DIFFER ON INTENSITY AND TIMING /BY ABOUT 24
HOURS AT THIS POINT/ BUT WORTH NOTING SINCE IT IS DURING
HOLIDAY/TRAVEL PERIOD.

WEAK LOW TRACKS JUST N OF THE INTL BORDER ON SAT AND COULD PRODUCE
A FEW SHSN IN THE N ZONES ESPECIALLY LATE SAT AND SAT NIGHT...BUT
SHOULD STAY DRY IN THE SRN ZONES WITH HIGHS A LITTLE WARMER THAN
FRIDAY...BUT STILL UNLIKELY TO BREAK 40 IN THE S AND FREEZING IN
THE N. WINDS SHIFT MORE W-SW BEHIND THIS SYSTEM AND TEMPS WILL
NOT FALL OFF MUCH SAT NIGHT. THE WARMER AIR BEGINS TO FILTER ON
SUNDAY AND HIGHS WILL BE ABOUT 10F WARMER THAN SATURDAY...IN THE
UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S.

500MB CLOSED LOW DEEPENS OVER THE N CENTRAL CONUS SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE LIFTING NE INTO THE ST LAWRENCE VLY ON
MONDAY. WAA TO THE EAST OF THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
REGION SUN NIGHT...WITH WARM AIR IN PLACE ALOFT. QUESTION IS HOW
COLD WILL IT GET SUN NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE PRECIP? MOST PLACES
EXCEPT FOR THE COLD SPOTS IN THE MTNS SHOULD SEE TEMPS STAY ABV
FREEZING OVERNIGHT...BUT COULD SEE A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN IN
SOME OF THE MTN VLYS LATE SUN NIGHT INTO EARLY MON.

ON MON...WILL BREAK INTO THE WARM SECTOR ALOFT...BUT IT REMAINSTO
BE SEEN IF WE CAN MIX ANY OF THIS DOWN TO THE SFC. STILL...EVEN
WITH CLOUDS...SW FLOW SHOULD BRING IN WARM ENOUGH AIR AT THE SFC
TO PUSH TEMPS ABOVE 50 IN MANY SPOTS...AND DEPENDING ON IF THERE
ARE ANY PROLONGED BREAKS OF SUN...COULD SEE A FEW SPOTS MAKE A RUN
AT 60. THERE WILL BE A THREAT  OF SHRA ON MON IN ADVANCE OF COLD
FROPA LATE IN THE DAY. WEAK RIDGING ON TUE SHOULD PROVIDE A MAINLY
DRY DAY...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS...BUT DOWNSLOPE WILL HELP
KEEP TEMPS ABV NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...HIE WILL SEE MVFR IN SNOW THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
ELSEWHERE CEILINGS WILL BE VFR WITH NW WINDS GUSTING TO 25KTS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...POTENTIAL FOR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS IN RA AND STRATUS
SUN NIGHT INTO EARLY MON.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM... A FEW ISOLATED GUSTS TO 35KTS THROUGH THIS EVENING.
OVERNIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY AS COLD AIR ADVECTION
SETS IN. FRIDAY MAY SEE WINDS INCREASE TO GALE FORCE OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS... AND HAVE ISSUED A GALE WATCH.

LONG TERM...SW FLOW COULD PICK UP ON SUN TO SCA LVLS AND PERSIST
INTO MONDAY. SCA TO LOW GALES POSSIBLE IN W-NW FLOW BEHIND A COLD
FRONT MON NIGHT INTO TUE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ151-153.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CEMPA/CURTIS
NEAR TERM UPDATE...MLE
SHORT TERM...CURTIS
LONG TERM...CEMPA
AVIATION...CEMPA/CURTIS
MARINE...CEMPA/CURTIS



000
FXUS61 KGYX 202303
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
603 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT WITH COLD AIR
SETTLING INTO PLACE ON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE SOUTH
OVER THE WEEKEND..AS A WEAK WAVE CLIPS THE NORTHERN AREAS. LOW
PRESSURE WILL TRACK OUT OF THE MIDWEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES MONDAY...PUSHING A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE REGION LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...BRING SOME RAIN TO THE
REGION...WITH A CHANCE IT WILL START AS SOME FREEZING RAIN IN THE
VALLEYS. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE
MOVING OFFSHORE COULD BRING SOME PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
6 PM UPDATE...COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS MAINE AT THIS TIME
AND IS ACCOMPANIED BY A LINE OF SNOW SQUALLS FROM NORTHERN
KENNEBEC COUNTY ON NORTH AND WEST. THESE SHOULD CLEAR THE CWA IN
THE NEXT TWO HOURS OR SO BUT MAY PRODUCE BRIEF WHITEOUT CONDITIONS
IN THE MEANTIME. OTHERWISE...JUST FAIR AND BLUSTERY CONDITIONS.

PREVIOUSLY...

A COLD FRONT IS MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
WHILE THERE IS WIDESPREAD RADAR ECHOS... THE ONLY SCATTERED
REPORTS OF SNOW ACCUMULATION. AN ADDITIONAL CONCERN OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS IS THE CHANCE FOR SNOW SQUALLS ALONG THE LEADING
EDGE OF THE COLD AIR. MOISTURE FROM THE LONG LASTING LAKE EFFECT
SNOW EVENT IN NEW YORK IS GETTING ENTRAINED INTO THE FLOW AND IS
HELPING TO GENERATE ISOLATED HEAVY SNOW OVER VERMONT. THESE SNOW
SQUALLS WILL MOVE EAST AND WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
OVERNIGHT THE COLD AIR MOVES INTO PLACE ALOFT WITH TEMPERATURES
DIPPING INTO THE TEENS. IN THE NORTH CLOUD COVER FROM UPSLOPE FLOW
SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES OUT OF THE SINGLE DIGITS...ALTHOUGH
COLDER TEMPS IN ISOLATED VALLEYS ARE POSSIBLE. THE BIG CONCERN FOR
FRIDAY WILL BE GUSTY WINDS AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLANE WINDS WILL GUST INTO THE 20MPH RANGE. A FEW ISOLATED
GUSTS TO 35 TO 40MPH ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST,
HOWEVER THIS WILL STILL BE BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.

BY FRIDAY NIGHT WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE AS THE COLD AIR
SHIFTS EASTWARDS AND A HIGH BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH ON
SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL ACTUALLY BE SLIGHTLY COLDER FRIDAY
NIGHT AS CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR THE VALLEYS TO DECOUPLE AND
DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
500 MB +PNA PATTERN BECOMES LESS AMPLIFIED OVER THE WEEKEND AND
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A WARM UP ACROSS
THE REGION BECOMING QUITE NOTICEABLE SUNDAY AND MONDAY...AS 850MB
TEMPS LOOK TO SURPASS +10C ON MONDAY...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS AND SOME
RAIN THAT DAY WILL KEEP THINGS FROM WARMING UP TOO MUCH. 12Z GFS
AND EURO WANT TO DEEPEN THE CENTRAL CONUS TROUGH AND PUP UP THE
WEST COAST RIDGE MID TO LATE IN THE WEEK...AND DEVELOP AN
OFFSHORE LOW. THEY DIFFER ON INTENSITY AND TIMING /BY ABOUT 24
HOURS AT THIS POINT/ BUT WORTH NOTING SINCE IT IS DURING
HOLIDAY/TRAVEL PERIOD.

WEAK LOW TRACKS JUST N OF THE INTL BORDER ON SAT AND COULD PRODUCE
A FEW SHSN IN THE N ZONES ESPECIALLY LATE SAT AND SAT NIGHT...BUT
SHOULD STAY DRY IN THE SRN ZONES WITH HIGHS A LITTLE WARMER THAN
FRIDAY...BUT STILL UNLIKELY TO BREAK 40 IN THE S AND FREEZING IN
THE N. WINDS SHIFT MORE W-SW BEHIND THIS SYSTEM AND TEMPS WILL
NOT FALL OFF MUCH SAT NIGHT. THE WARMER AIR BEGINS TO FILTER ON
SUNDAY AND HIGHS WILL BE ABOUT 10F WARMER THAN SATURDAY...IN THE
UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S.

500MB CLOSED LOW DEEPENS OVER THE N CENTRAL CONUS SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE LIFTING NE INTO THE ST LAWRENCE VLY ON
MONDAY. WAA TO THE EAST OF THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
REGION SUN NIGHT...WITH WARM AIR IN PLACE ALOFT. QUESTION IS HOW
COLD WILL IT GET SUN NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE PRECIP? MOST PLACES
EXCEPT FOR THE COLD SPOTS IN THE MTNS SHOULD SEE TEMPS STAY ABV
FREEZING OVERNIGHT...BUT COULD SEE A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN IN
SOME OF THE MTN VLYS LATE SUN NIGHT INTO EARLY MON.

ON MON...WILL BREAK INTO THE WARM SECTOR ALOFT...BUT IT REMAINSTO
BE SEEN IF WE CAN MIX ANY OF THIS DOWN TO THE SFC. STILL...EVEN
WITH CLOUDS...SW FLOW SHOULD BRING IN WARM ENOUGH AIR AT THE SFC
TO PUSH TEMPS ABOVE 50 IN MANY SPOTS...AND DEPENDING ON IF THERE
ARE ANY PROLONGED BREAKS OF SUN...COULD SEE A FEW SPOTS MAKE A RUN
AT 60. THERE WILL BE A THREAT  OF SHRA ON MON IN ADVANCE OF COLD
FROPA LATE IN THE DAY. WEAK RIDGING ON TUE SHOULD PROVIDE A MAINLY
DRY DAY...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS...BUT DOWNSLOPE WILL HELP
KEEP TEMPS ABV NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...HIE WILL SEE MVFR IN SNOW THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
ELSEWHERE CEILINGS WILL BE VFR WITH NW WINDS GUSTING TO 25KTS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...POTENTIAL FOR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS IN RA AND STRATUS
SUN NIGHT INTO EARLY MON.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM... A FEW ISOLATED GUSTS TO 35KTS THROUGH THIS EVENING.
OVERNIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY AS COLD AIR ADVECTION
SETS IN. FRIDAY MAY SEE WINDS INCREASE TO GALE FORCE OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS... AND HAVE ISSUED A GALE WATCH.

LONG TERM...SW FLOW COULD PICK UP ON SUN TO SCA LVLS AND PERSIST
INTO MONDAY. SCA TO LOW GALES POSSIBLE IN W-NW FLOW BEHIND A COLD
FRONT MON NIGHT INTO TUE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ151-153.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CEMPA/CURTIS
NEAR TERM UPDATE...MLE
SHORT TERM...CURTIS
LONG TERM...CEMPA
AVIATION...CEMPA/CURTIS
MARINE...CEMPA/CURTIS



000
FXUS61 KGYX 202303
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
603 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT WITH COLD AIR
SETTLING INTO PLACE ON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE SOUTH
OVER THE WEEKEND..AS A WEAK WAVE CLIPS THE NORTHERN AREAS. LOW
PRESSURE WILL TRACK OUT OF THE MIDWEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES MONDAY...PUSHING A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE REGION LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...BRING SOME RAIN TO THE
REGION...WITH A CHANCE IT WILL START AS SOME FREEZING RAIN IN THE
VALLEYS. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE
MOVING OFFSHORE COULD BRING SOME PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
6 PM UPDATE...COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS MAINE AT THIS TIME
AND IS ACCOMPANIED BY A LINE OF SNOW SQUALLS FROM NORTHERN
KENNEBEC COUNTY ON NORTH AND WEST. THESE SHOULD CLEAR THE CWA IN
THE NEXT TWO HOURS OR SO BUT MAY PRODUCE BRIEF WHITEOUT CONDITIONS
IN THE MEANTIME. OTHERWISE...JUST FAIR AND BLUSTERY CONDITIONS.

PREVIOUSLY...

A COLD FRONT IS MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
WHILE THERE IS WIDESPREAD RADAR ECHOS... THE ONLY SCATTERED
REPORTS OF SNOW ACCUMULATION. AN ADDITIONAL CONCERN OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS IS THE CHANCE FOR SNOW SQUALLS ALONG THE LEADING
EDGE OF THE COLD AIR. MOISTURE FROM THE LONG LASTING LAKE EFFECT
SNOW EVENT IN NEW YORK IS GETTING ENTRAINED INTO THE FLOW AND IS
HELPING TO GENERATE ISOLATED HEAVY SNOW OVER VERMONT. THESE SNOW
SQUALLS WILL MOVE EAST AND WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
OVERNIGHT THE COLD AIR MOVES INTO PLACE ALOFT WITH TEMPERATURES
DIPPING INTO THE TEENS. IN THE NORTH CLOUD COVER FROM UPSLOPE FLOW
SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES OUT OF THE SINGLE DIGITS...ALTHOUGH
COLDER TEMPS IN ISOLATED VALLEYS ARE POSSIBLE. THE BIG CONCERN FOR
FRIDAY WILL BE GUSTY WINDS AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLANE WINDS WILL GUST INTO THE 20MPH RANGE. A FEW ISOLATED
GUSTS TO 35 TO 40MPH ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST,
HOWEVER THIS WILL STILL BE BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.

BY FRIDAY NIGHT WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE AS THE COLD AIR
SHIFTS EASTWARDS AND A HIGH BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH ON
SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL ACTUALLY BE SLIGHTLY COLDER FRIDAY
NIGHT AS CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR THE VALLEYS TO DECOUPLE AND
DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
500 MB +PNA PATTERN BECOMES LESS AMPLIFIED OVER THE WEEKEND AND
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A WARM UP ACROSS
THE REGION BECOMING QUITE NOTICEABLE SUNDAY AND MONDAY...AS 850MB
TEMPS LOOK TO SURPASS +10C ON MONDAY...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS AND SOME
RAIN THAT DAY WILL KEEP THINGS FROM WARMING UP TOO MUCH. 12Z GFS
AND EURO WANT TO DEEPEN THE CENTRAL CONUS TROUGH AND PUP UP THE
WEST COAST RIDGE MID TO LATE IN THE WEEK...AND DEVELOP AN
OFFSHORE LOW. THEY DIFFER ON INTENSITY AND TIMING /BY ABOUT 24
HOURS AT THIS POINT/ BUT WORTH NOTING SINCE IT IS DURING
HOLIDAY/TRAVEL PERIOD.

WEAK LOW TRACKS JUST N OF THE INTL BORDER ON SAT AND COULD PRODUCE
A FEW SHSN IN THE N ZONES ESPECIALLY LATE SAT AND SAT NIGHT...BUT
SHOULD STAY DRY IN THE SRN ZONES WITH HIGHS A LITTLE WARMER THAN
FRIDAY...BUT STILL UNLIKELY TO BREAK 40 IN THE S AND FREEZING IN
THE N. WINDS SHIFT MORE W-SW BEHIND THIS SYSTEM AND TEMPS WILL
NOT FALL OFF MUCH SAT NIGHT. THE WARMER AIR BEGINS TO FILTER ON
SUNDAY AND HIGHS WILL BE ABOUT 10F WARMER THAN SATURDAY...IN THE
UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S.

500MB CLOSED LOW DEEPENS OVER THE N CENTRAL CONUS SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE LIFTING NE INTO THE ST LAWRENCE VLY ON
MONDAY. WAA TO THE EAST OF THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
REGION SUN NIGHT...WITH WARM AIR IN PLACE ALOFT. QUESTION IS HOW
COLD WILL IT GET SUN NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE PRECIP? MOST PLACES
EXCEPT FOR THE COLD SPOTS IN THE MTNS SHOULD SEE TEMPS STAY ABV
FREEZING OVERNIGHT...BUT COULD SEE A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN IN
SOME OF THE MTN VLYS LATE SUN NIGHT INTO EARLY MON.

ON MON...WILL BREAK INTO THE WARM SECTOR ALOFT...BUT IT REMAINSTO
BE SEEN IF WE CAN MIX ANY OF THIS DOWN TO THE SFC. STILL...EVEN
WITH CLOUDS...SW FLOW SHOULD BRING IN WARM ENOUGH AIR AT THE SFC
TO PUSH TEMPS ABOVE 50 IN MANY SPOTS...AND DEPENDING ON IF THERE
ARE ANY PROLONGED BREAKS OF SUN...COULD SEE A FEW SPOTS MAKE A RUN
AT 60. THERE WILL BE A THREAT  OF SHRA ON MON IN ADVANCE OF COLD
FROPA LATE IN THE DAY. WEAK RIDGING ON TUE SHOULD PROVIDE A MAINLY
DRY DAY...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS...BUT DOWNSLOPE WILL HELP
KEEP TEMPS ABV NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...HIE WILL SEE MVFR IN SNOW THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
ELSEWHERE CEILINGS WILL BE VFR WITH NW WINDS GUSTING TO 25KTS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...POTENTIAL FOR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS IN RA AND STRATUS
SUN NIGHT INTO EARLY MON.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM... A FEW ISOLATED GUSTS TO 35KTS THROUGH THIS EVENING.
OVERNIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY AS COLD AIR ADVECTION
SETS IN. FRIDAY MAY SEE WINDS INCREASE TO GALE FORCE OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS... AND HAVE ISSUED A GALE WATCH.

LONG TERM...SW FLOW COULD PICK UP ON SUN TO SCA LVLS AND PERSIST
INTO MONDAY. SCA TO LOW GALES POSSIBLE IN W-NW FLOW BEHIND A COLD
FRONT MON NIGHT INTO TUE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ151-153.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CEMPA/CURTIS
NEAR TERM UPDATE...MLE
SHORT TERM...CURTIS
LONG TERM...CEMPA
AVIATION...CEMPA/CURTIS
MARINE...CEMPA/CURTIS



000
FXUS61 KGYX 202303
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
603 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT WITH COLD AIR
SETTLING INTO PLACE ON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE SOUTH
OVER THE WEEKEND..AS A WEAK WAVE CLIPS THE NORTHERN AREAS. LOW
PRESSURE WILL TRACK OUT OF THE MIDWEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES MONDAY...PUSHING A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE REGION LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...BRING SOME RAIN TO THE
REGION...WITH A CHANCE IT WILL START AS SOME FREEZING RAIN IN THE
VALLEYS. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE
MOVING OFFSHORE COULD BRING SOME PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
6 PM UPDATE...COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS MAINE AT THIS TIME
AND IS ACCOMPANIED BY A LINE OF SNOW SQUALLS FROM NORTHERN
KENNEBEC COUNTY ON NORTH AND WEST. THESE SHOULD CLEAR THE CWA IN
THE NEXT TWO HOURS OR SO BUT MAY PRODUCE BRIEF WHITEOUT CONDITIONS
IN THE MEANTIME. OTHERWISE...JUST FAIR AND BLUSTERY CONDITIONS.

PREVIOUSLY...

A COLD FRONT IS MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
WHILE THERE IS WIDESPREAD RADAR ECHOS... THE ONLY SCATTERED
REPORTS OF SNOW ACCUMULATION. AN ADDITIONAL CONCERN OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS IS THE CHANCE FOR SNOW SQUALLS ALONG THE LEADING
EDGE OF THE COLD AIR. MOISTURE FROM THE LONG LASTING LAKE EFFECT
SNOW EVENT IN NEW YORK IS GETTING ENTRAINED INTO THE FLOW AND IS
HELPING TO GENERATE ISOLATED HEAVY SNOW OVER VERMONT. THESE SNOW
SQUALLS WILL MOVE EAST AND WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
OVERNIGHT THE COLD AIR MOVES INTO PLACE ALOFT WITH TEMPERATURES
DIPPING INTO THE TEENS. IN THE NORTH CLOUD COVER FROM UPSLOPE FLOW
SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES OUT OF THE SINGLE DIGITS...ALTHOUGH
COLDER TEMPS IN ISOLATED VALLEYS ARE POSSIBLE. THE BIG CONCERN FOR
FRIDAY WILL BE GUSTY WINDS AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLANE WINDS WILL GUST INTO THE 20MPH RANGE. A FEW ISOLATED
GUSTS TO 35 TO 40MPH ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST,
HOWEVER THIS WILL STILL BE BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.

BY FRIDAY NIGHT WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE AS THE COLD AIR
SHIFTS EASTWARDS AND A HIGH BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH ON
SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL ACTUALLY BE SLIGHTLY COLDER FRIDAY
NIGHT AS CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR THE VALLEYS TO DECOUPLE AND
DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
500 MB +PNA PATTERN BECOMES LESS AMPLIFIED OVER THE WEEKEND AND
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A WARM UP ACROSS
THE REGION BECOMING QUITE NOTICEABLE SUNDAY AND MONDAY...AS 850MB
TEMPS LOOK TO SURPASS +10C ON MONDAY...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS AND SOME
RAIN THAT DAY WILL KEEP THINGS FROM WARMING UP TOO MUCH. 12Z GFS
AND EURO WANT TO DEEPEN THE CENTRAL CONUS TROUGH AND PUP UP THE
WEST COAST RIDGE MID TO LATE IN THE WEEK...AND DEVELOP AN
OFFSHORE LOW. THEY DIFFER ON INTENSITY AND TIMING /BY ABOUT 24
HOURS AT THIS POINT/ BUT WORTH NOTING SINCE IT IS DURING
HOLIDAY/TRAVEL PERIOD.

WEAK LOW TRACKS JUST N OF THE INTL BORDER ON SAT AND COULD PRODUCE
A FEW SHSN IN THE N ZONES ESPECIALLY LATE SAT AND SAT NIGHT...BUT
SHOULD STAY DRY IN THE SRN ZONES WITH HIGHS A LITTLE WARMER THAN
FRIDAY...BUT STILL UNLIKELY TO BREAK 40 IN THE S AND FREEZING IN
THE N. WINDS SHIFT MORE W-SW BEHIND THIS SYSTEM AND TEMPS WILL
NOT FALL OFF MUCH SAT NIGHT. THE WARMER AIR BEGINS TO FILTER ON
SUNDAY AND HIGHS WILL BE ABOUT 10F WARMER THAN SATURDAY...IN THE
UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S.

500MB CLOSED LOW DEEPENS OVER THE N CENTRAL CONUS SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE LIFTING NE INTO THE ST LAWRENCE VLY ON
MONDAY. WAA TO THE EAST OF THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
REGION SUN NIGHT...WITH WARM AIR IN PLACE ALOFT. QUESTION IS HOW
COLD WILL IT GET SUN NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE PRECIP? MOST PLACES
EXCEPT FOR THE COLD SPOTS IN THE MTNS SHOULD SEE TEMPS STAY ABV
FREEZING OVERNIGHT...BUT COULD SEE A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN IN
SOME OF THE MTN VLYS LATE SUN NIGHT INTO EARLY MON.

ON MON...WILL BREAK INTO THE WARM SECTOR ALOFT...BUT IT REMAINSTO
BE SEEN IF WE CAN MIX ANY OF THIS DOWN TO THE SFC. STILL...EVEN
WITH CLOUDS...SW FLOW SHOULD BRING IN WARM ENOUGH AIR AT THE SFC
TO PUSH TEMPS ABOVE 50 IN MANY SPOTS...AND DEPENDING ON IF THERE
ARE ANY PROLONGED BREAKS OF SUN...COULD SEE A FEW SPOTS MAKE A RUN
AT 60. THERE WILL BE A THREAT  OF SHRA ON MON IN ADVANCE OF COLD
FROPA LATE IN THE DAY. WEAK RIDGING ON TUE SHOULD PROVIDE A MAINLY
DRY DAY...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS...BUT DOWNSLOPE WILL HELP
KEEP TEMPS ABV NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...HIE WILL SEE MVFR IN SNOW THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
ELSEWHERE CEILINGS WILL BE VFR WITH NW WINDS GUSTING TO 25KTS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...POTENTIAL FOR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS IN RA AND STRATUS
SUN NIGHT INTO EARLY MON.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM... A FEW ISOLATED GUSTS TO 35KTS THROUGH THIS EVENING.
OVERNIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY AS COLD AIR ADVECTION
SETS IN. FRIDAY MAY SEE WINDS INCREASE TO GALE FORCE OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS... AND HAVE ISSUED A GALE WATCH.

LONG TERM...SW FLOW COULD PICK UP ON SUN TO SCA LVLS AND PERSIST
INTO MONDAY. SCA TO LOW GALES POSSIBLE IN W-NW FLOW BEHIND A COLD
FRONT MON NIGHT INTO TUE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ151-153.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CEMPA/CURTIS
NEAR TERM UPDATE...MLE
SHORT TERM...CURTIS
LONG TERM...CEMPA
AVIATION...CEMPA/CURTIS
MARINE...CEMPA/CURTIS



000
FXUS61 KCAR 202255
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
555 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. A WEAK WARM FRONT CROSSES
THE AREA LATER SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES REGION ON MONDAY WILL BRING RAIN AND WARMER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A LINE OF SNOW SQUALLS CAN BE SEEN MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE.
THEY WILL CONTINUE EAST REACHING THE NEW BRUNSWICK BORDER BETWEEN
7 AND 8 THIS EVENING. FORECAST WAS UPDATED TO FOCUS ON THE TIMING
OF THESE SNOW SQUALLS WHICH MAY LOWER VISIBILITIES TO LESS THAN A
HALF MILE AND CAUSE ROADS TO QUICKLY BECOME SLIPPERY AS THEY COME
THROUGH.

THE ARCTIC FRONT IS CURRENTLY ENTERING THE WESTERN MAINE BORDER
AND WILL PROPAGATE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
THIS EVENING WITH GUSTY WINDS...SNOW SQUALLS AND RAPIDLY FALLING
TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS FRONT COULD DROP A QUICK INCH
OR TWO OF WIND-BLOWN SNOW AND CREATE HAZARDOUS DRIVING FOR THE
CROWN OF MAINE THIS EVENING DUE TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES. VARIOUS
MEASURES OF LIFT ARE QUITE IMPRESSIVE WITH THIS FRONT. THERE ARE
STEEP LAPSE RATES...AROUND 150 J/KG OF CAPE AND CONSIDERABLE
SHEAR. GUSTS OF 35 MPH TO 40 MPH SHOULD BE EASILY ATTAINABLE. WITH
TOPS APPROACHING H600...QUARTER-MILE VISIBILITIES ARE QUITE
POSSIBLE IN THE SNOW SHOWERS. FURTHER SOUTH...THE FRONT WILL JUST
BRING A WIND SHIFT AND SHARPLY COLDER TEMPERATURES. LOWS WILL DROP
INTO THE TEENS NORTH AND LOWER 20S FOR BANGOR AND DOWN EAST BY
LATE TONIGHT. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL STILL CROSS FRIDAY MORNING AND
WILL LIKELY SET OFF MORE SNOW SHOWERS ON FRIDAY MORNING NORTH OF
HOULTON. NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 30 MPH AND WIND CHILLS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS WILL BE THE BIGGEST STORY FOR FRIDAY. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL CREATE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR MOST LOCATIONS...BUT
DOWNSLOPE DRYING SHOULD ALLOW SOME SUNSHINE TOWARDS BANGOR. HIGHS
WILL BE MID 20S NORTH AND AROUND 30F FOR BANGOR AND DOWN EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ANOTHER S/WV WILL AFFECT THE REGION THIS TERM W/A MODERATION IN
THE AIRMASS BY SUNDAY.

HIGH PRES IS FORECAST TO SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT
W/PARTIAL CLEARING EXPECTED. ANOTHER COLD NIGHT W/OVERNIGHT LOWS
FORECAST TO BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST
WHILE LOWER TEENS FOR CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST. THE S/WV MOVES ACROSS
THE REGION LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THE NAM
AND GFS BOTH SHOW SOME MID LEVEL FORCING W/DECENT RH THROUGH
700MBS. DECIDED TO INCLUDE 30-40% POPS FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON
W/SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST WHERE THE BEST
FORCING WILL BE SITUATED. QPF WILL BE NO MORE THAN 0.05" AND W/A
10:1 SNOW RATIO, DECIDED TO SHOW UP TO 1/2 INCH OF SNOWFALL ACROSS
THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS.

SUNDAY IS EXPECTED TO START OUT CLOUDY W/SOME LEFTOVER SNOW
SHOWER/FLURRIES AND THEN CLEARING IS EXPECTED. A GRADUAL
MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED AS WARMER AIR BEGINS TO
PUSH IN FROM THE WSW. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO CLIMB
IN THE MID/UPPER 30S ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA WHILE
CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST COULD SEE LOW TO MID 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRES WILL RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY W/A CONTINUED WARMUP.

THE 12Z RUNS OF THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE SHOW AN INTENSE LOW PRES
SYSTEM FORECAST TO MOVING N ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON
MONDAY. AS IT DOES SO, IT WILL BRING AN OCCLUDED FRONT ACROSS THE
NEW ENGLAND REGION INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THE 12Z ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN
BETTER AGREEMENT W/TIMING AND QPF. THERE IS SOME DIFLUENCE ALOFT
COMBINED W/A 55 KT LLVL JET TO SUPPORT SOME HEAVIER RAINFALL
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME WIND
GUSTS OF 40 MPH ACROSS THE DOWNEAST AND EASTERN 3RD OF MAINE LATE
MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD
AND ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE NOVEMBER RIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT
W/TEMPERATURES ACTUALLY RISING OVERNIGHT ON SSW WINDS.

THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE A LULL IN THE WINDS AND THEN ANOTHER
SURGE EARLY TUESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT AND CAA. BUFKIT PROFILES SHOW
GUST POTENTIAL FOR 45 MPH DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ON TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE HIT IN THE MORNING ON TUESDAY AND
THEN THEY WILL FALL BACK DURING THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS POTENTIAL
HIGH TUESDAY MORNING TO ACTUALLY HIT THE 50S BEFORE COOLING OFF.
A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY
W/ANOTHER SURGE OF COLDER AIR W/TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR NORMAL
LEVELS AND THE THREAT FOR SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM:  VFR OUTSIDE OF SNOW SQUALLS THAT WILL PASS THROUGH
FVE...CAR AND PQI THIS EVENING. SOME MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED NORTH
OF HUL FRIDAY MORNING.

SHORT TERM: VFR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THERE IS POTENTIAL
FOR A PERIOD OF MVFR FOR KCAR, KPQI AND KFVE SATURDAY AFTERNOON
W/SHSN. VFR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY FOR ALL TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: CONTINUED STRONG SCA THROUGH FRIDAY. A FEW GUSTS MAY
REACH 35 KTS...BUT LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD DO NOT SUPPORT A
SUSTAINED GALE IN SPITE OF THE STRONG COLD AIR MOVING OVER THE
RELATIVELY WARMER WATERS.

SHORT TERM: SCA POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN A LULL
FOR EARLY SATURDAY. ANOTHER SURGE OF SCA CONDITIONS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY. DECIDED TO KEEP GUSTS AT 30 KTS W/THE NEXT
S/WV SATURDAY EVENING. BEST SHOT FOR ANY GALE FORCE GUSTS WILL BE
OVER THE OUTER WATERS. DID NOT STRAY TOO FAR FROM THE MIDNIGHT
CREW`S ASSESSMENT W/THE WINDS ATTM. WAVE HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO
BUILD SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY TO 6-7 FT.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MCW/MCB
SHORT TERM...HEWITT/VJN
LONG TERM...NORTON
AVIATION...MCW/HEWITT/VJN
MARINE...MCW/HEWITT/VJN



000
FXUS61 KCAR 202255
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
555 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. A WEAK WARM FRONT CROSSES
THE AREA LATER SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES REGION ON MONDAY WILL BRING RAIN AND WARMER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A LINE OF SNOW SQUALLS CAN BE SEEN MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE.
THEY WILL CONTINUE EAST REACHING THE NEW BRUNSWICK BORDER BETWEEN
7 AND 8 THIS EVENING. FORECAST WAS UPDATED TO FOCUS ON THE TIMING
OF THESE SNOW SQUALLS WHICH MAY LOWER VISIBILITIES TO LESS THAN A
HALF MILE AND CAUSE ROADS TO QUICKLY BECOME SLIPPERY AS THEY COME
THROUGH.

THE ARCTIC FRONT IS CURRENTLY ENTERING THE WESTERN MAINE BORDER
AND WILL PROPAGATE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
THIS EVENING WITH GUSTY WINDS...SNOW SQUALLS AND RAPIDLY FALLING
TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS FRONT COULD DROP A QUICK INCH
OR TWO OF WIND-BLOWN SNOW AND CREATE HAZARDOUS DRIVING FOR THE
CROWN OF MAINE THIS EVENING DUE TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES. VARIOUS
MEASURES OF LIFT ARE QUITE IMPRESSIVE WITH THIS FRONT. THERE ARE
STEEP LAPSE RATES...AROUND 150 J/KG OF CAPE AND CONSIDERABLE
SHEAR. GUSTS OF 35 MPH TO 40 MPH SHOULD BE EASILY ATTAINABLE. WITH
TOPS APPROACHING H600...QUARTER-MILE VISIBILITIES ARE QUITE
POSSIBLE IN THE SNOW SHOWERS. FURTHER SOUTH...THE FRONT WILL JUST
BRING A WIND SHIFT AND SHARPLY COLDER TEMPERATURES. LOWS WILL DROP
INTO THE TEENS NORTH AND LOWER 20S FOR BANGOR AND DOWN EAST BY
LATE TONIGHT. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL STILL CROSS FRIDAY MORNING AND
WILL LIKELY SET OFF MORE SNOW SHOWERS ON FRIDAY MORNING NORTH OF
HOULTON. NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 30 MPH AND WIND CHILLS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS WILL BE THE BIGGEST STORY FOR FRIDAY. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL CREATE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR MOST LOCATIONS...BUT
DOWNSLOPE DRYING SHOULD ALLOW SOME SUNSHINE TOWARDS BANGOR. HIGHS
WILL BE MID 20S NORTH AND AROUND 30F FOR BANGOR AND DOWN EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ANOTHER S/WV WILL AFFECT THE REGION THIS TERM W/A MODERATION IN
THE AIRMASS BY SUNDAY.

HIGH PRES IS FORECAST TO SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT
W/PARTIAL CLEARING EXPECTED. ANOTHER COLD NIGHT W/OVERNIGHT LOWS
FORECAST TO BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST
WHILE LOWER TEENS FOR CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST. THE S/WV MOVES ACROSS
THE REGION LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THE NAM
AND GFS BOTH SHOW SOME MID LEVEL FORCING W/DECENT RH THROUGH
700MBS. DECIDED TO INCLUDE 30-40% POPS FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON
W/SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST WHERE THE BEST
FORCING WILL BE SITUATED. QPF WILL BE NO MORE THAN 0.05" AND W/A
10:1 SNOW RATIO, DECIDED TO SHOW UP TO 1/2 INCH OF SNOWFALL ACROSS
THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS.

SUNDAY IS EXPECTED TO START OUT CLOUDY W/SOME LEFTOVER SNOW
SHOWER/FLURRIES AND THEN CLEARING IS EXPECTED. A GRADUAL
MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED AS WARMER AIR BEGINS TO
PUSH IN FROM THE WSW. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO CLIMB
IN THE MID/UPPER 30S ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA WHILE
CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST COULD SEE LOW TO MID 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRES WILL RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY W/A CONTINUED WARMUP.

THE 12Z RUNS OF THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE SHOW AN INTENSE LOW PRES
SYSTEM FORECAST TO MOVING N ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON
MONDAY. AS IT DOES SO, IT WILL BRING AN OCCLUDED FRONT ACROSS THE
NEW ENGLAND REGION INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THE 12Z ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN
BETTER AGREEMENT W/TIMING AND QPF. THERE IS SOME DIFLUENCE ALOFT
COMBINED W/A 55 KT LLVL JET TO SUPPORT SOME HEAVIER RAINFALL
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME WIND
GUSTS OF 40 MPH ACROSS THE DOWNEAST AND EASTERN 3RD OF MAINE LATE
MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD
AND ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE NOVEMBER RIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT
W/TEMPERATURES ACTUALLY RISING OVERNIGHT ON SSW WINDS.

THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE A LULL IN THE WINDS AND THEN ANOTHER
SURGE EARLY TUESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT AND CAA. BUFKIT PROFILES SHOW
GUST POTENTIAL FOR 45 MPH DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ON TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE HIT IN THE MORNING ON TUESDAY AND
THEN THEY WILL FALL BACK DURING THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS POTENTIAL
HIGH TUESDAY MORNING TO ACTUALLY HIT THE 50S BEFORE COOLING OFF.
A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY
W/ANOTHER SURGE OF COLDER AIR W/TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR NORMAL
LEVELS AND THE THREAT FOR SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM:  VFR OUTSIDE OF SNOW SQUALLS THAT WILL PASS THROUGH
FVE...CAR AND PQI THIS EVENING. SOME MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED NORTH
OF HUL FRIDAY MORNING.

SHORT TERM: VFR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THERE IS POTENTIAL
FOR A PERIOD OF MVFR FOR KCAR, KPQI AND KFVE SATURDAY AFTERNOON
W/SHSN. VFR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY FOR ALL TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: CONTINUED STRONG SCA THROUGH FRIDAY. A FEW GUSTS MAY
REACH 35 KTS...BUT LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD DO NOT SUPPORT A
SUSTAINED GALE IN SPITE OF THE STRONG COLD AIR MOVING OVER THE
RELATIVELY WARMER WATERS.

SHORT TERM: SCA POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN A LULL
FOR EARLY SATURDAY. ANOTHER SURGE OF SCA CONDITIONS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY. DECIDED TO KEEP GUSTS AT 30 KTS W/THE NEXT
S/WV SATURDAY EVENING. BEST SHOT FOR ANY GALE FORCE GUSTS WILL BE
OVER THE OUTER WATERS. DID NOT STRAY TOO FAR FROM THE MIDNIGHT
CREW`S ASSESSMENT W/THE WINDS ATTM. WAVE HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO
BUILD SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY TO 6-7 FT.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MCW/MCB
SHORT TERM...HEWITT/VJN
LONG TERM...NORTON
AVIATION...MCW/HEWITT/VJN
MARINE...MCW/HEWITT/VJN



000
FXUS61 KCAR 202255
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
555 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. A WEAK WARM FRONT CROSSES
THE AREA LATER SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES REGION ON MONDAY WILL BRING RAIN AND WARMER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A LINE OF SNOW SQUALLS CAN BE SEEN MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE.
THEY WILL CONTINUE EAST REACHING THE NEW BRUNSWICK BORDER BETWEEN
7 AND 8 THIS EVENING. FORECAST WAS UPDATED TO FOCUS ON THE TIMING
OF THESE SNOW SQUALLS WHICH MAY LOWER VISIBILITIES TO LESS THAN A
HALF MILE AND CAUSE ROADS TO QUICKLY BECOME SLIPPERY AS THEY COME
THROUGH.

THE ARCTIC FRONT IS CURRENTLY ENTERING THE WESTERN MAINE BORDER
AND WILL PROPAGATE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
THIS EVENING WITH GUSTY WINDS...SNOW SQUALLS AND RAPIDLY FALLING
TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS FRONT COULD DROP A QUICK INCH
OR TWO OF WIND-BLOWN SNOW AND CREATE HAZARDOUS DRIVING FOR THE
CROWN OF MAINE THIS EVENING DUE TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES. VARIOUS
MEASURES OF LIFT ARE QUITE IMPRESSIVE WITH THIS FRONT. THERE ARE
STEEP LAPSE RATES...AROUND 150 J/KG OF CAPE AND CONSIDERABLE
SHEAR. GUSTS OF 35 MPH TO 40 MPH SHOULD BE EASILY ATTAINABLE. WITH
TOPS APPROACHING H600...QUARTER-MILE VISIBILITIES ARE QUITE
POSSIBLE IN THE SNOW SHOWERS. FURTHER SOUTH...THE FRONT WILL JUST
BRING A WIND SHIFT AND SHARPLY COLDER TEMPERATURES. LOWS WILL DROP
INTO THE TEENS NORTH AND LOWER 20S FOR BANGOR AND DOWN EAST BY
LATE TONIGHT. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL STILL CROSS FRIDAY MORNING AND
WILL LIKELY SET OFF MORE SNOW SHOWERS ON FRIDAY MORNING NORTH OF
HOULTON. NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 30 MPH AND WIND CHILLS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS WILL BE THE BIGGEST STORY FOR FRIDAY. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL CREATE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR MOST LOCATIONS...BUT
DOWNSLOPE DRYING SHOULD ALLOW SOME SUNSHINE TOWARDS BANGOR. HIGHS
WILL BE MID 20S NORTH AND AROUND 30F FOR BANGOR AND DOWN EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ANOTHER S/WV WILL AFFECT THE REGION THIS TERM W/A MODERATION IN
THE AIRMASS BY SUNDAY.

HIGH PRES IS FORECAST TO SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT
W/PARTIAL CLEARING EXPECTED. ANOTHER COLD NIGHT W/OVERNIGHT LOWS
FORECAST TO BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST
WHILE LOWER TEENS FOR CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST. THE S/WV MOVES ACROSS
THE REGION LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THE NAM
AND GFS BOTH SHOW SOME MID LEVEL FORCING W/DECENT RH THROUGH
700MBS. DECIDED TO INCLUDE 30-40% POPS FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON
W/SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST WHERE THE BEST
FORCING WILL BE SITUATED. QPF WILL BE NO MORE THAN 0.05" AND W/A
10:1 SNOW RATIO, DECIDED TO SHOW UP TO 1/2 INCH OF SNOWFALL ACROSS
THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS.

SUNDAY IS EXPECTED TO START OUT CLOUDY W/SOME LEFTOVER SNOW
SHOWER/FLURRIES AND THEN CLEARING IS EXPECTED. A GRADUAL
MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED AS WARMER AIR BEGINS TO
PUSH IN FROM THE WSW. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO CLIMB
IN THE MID/UPPER 30S ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA WHILE
CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST COULD SEE LOW TO MID 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRES WILL RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY W/A CONTINUED WARMUP.

THE 12Z RUNS OF THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE SHOW AN INTENSE LOW PRES
SYSTEM FORECAST TO MOVING N ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON
MONDAY. AS IT DOES SO, IT WILL BRING AN OCCLUDED FRONT ACROSS THE
NEW ENGLAND REGION INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THE 12Z ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN
BETTER AGREEMENT W/TIMING AND QPF. THERE IS SOME DIFLUENCE ALOFT
COMBINED W/A 55 KT LLVL JET TO SUPPORT SOME HEAVIER RAINFALL
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME WIND
GUSTS OF 40 MPH ACROSS THE DOWNEAST AND EASTERN 3RD OF MAINE LATE
MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD
AND ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE NOVEMBER RIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT
W/TEMPERATURES ACTUALLY RISING OVERNIGHT ON SSW WINDS.

THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE A LULL IN THE WINDS AND THEN ANOTHER
SURGE EARLY TUESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT AND CAA. BUFKIT PROFILES SHOW
GUST POTENTIAL FOR 45 MPH DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ON TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE HIT IN THE MORNING ON TUESDAY AND
THEN THEY WILL FALL BACK DURING THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS POTENTIAL
HIGH TUESDAY MORNING TO ACTUALLY HIT THE 50S BEFORE COOLING OFF.
A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY
W/ANOTHER SURGE OF COLDER AIR W/TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR NORMAL
LEVELS AND THE THREAT FOR SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM:  VFR OUTSIDE OF SNOW SQUALLS THAT WILL PASS THROUGH
FVE...CAR AND PQI THIS EVENING. SOME MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED NORTH
OF HUL FRIDAY MORNING.

SHORT TERM: VFR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THERE IS POTENTIAL
FOR A PERIOD OF MVFR FOR KCAR, KPQI AND KFVE SATURDAY AFTERNOON
W/SHSN. VFR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY FOR ALL TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: CONTINUED STRONG SCA THROUGH FRIDAY. A FEW GUSTS MAY
REACH 35 KTS...BUT LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD DO NOT SUPPORT A
SUSTAINED GALE IN SPITE OF THE STRONG COLD AIR MOVING OVER THE
RELATIVELY WARMER WATERS.

SHORT TERM: SCA POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN A LULL
FOR EARLY SATURDAY. ANOTHER SURGE OF SCA CONDITIONS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY. DECIDED TO KEEP GUSTS AT 30 KTS W/THE NEXT
S/WV SATURDAY EVENING. BEST SHOT FOR ANY GALE FORCE GUSTS WILL BE
OVER THE OUTER WATERS. DID NOT STRAY TOO FAR FROM THE MIDNIGHT
CREW`S ASSESSMENT W/THE WINDS ATTM. WAVE HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO
BUILD SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY TO 6-7 FT.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MCW/MCB
SHORT TERM...HEWITT/VJN
LONG TERM...NORTON
AVIATION...MCW/HEWITT/VJN
MARINE...MCW/HEWITT/VJN



000
FXUS61 KCAR 202255
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
555 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. A WEAK WARM FRONT CROSSES
THE AREA LATER SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES REGION ON MONDAY WILL BRING RAIN AND WARMER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A LINE OF SNOW SQUALLS CAN BE SEEN MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE.
THEY WILL CONTINUE EAST REACHING THE NEW BRUNSWICK BORDER BETWEEN
7 AND 8 THIS EVENING. FORECAST WAS UPDATED TO FOCUS ON THE TIMING
OF THESE SNOW SQUALLS WHICH MAY LOWER VISIBILITIES TO LESS THAN A
HALF MILE AND CAUSE ROADS TO QUICKLY BECOME SLIPPERY AS THEY COME
THROUGH.

THE ARCTIC FRONT IS CURRENTLY ENTERING THE WESTERN MAINE BORDER
AND WILL PROPAGATE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
THIS EVENING WITH GUSTY WINDS...SNOW SQUALLS AND RAPIDLY FALLING
TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS FRONT COULD DROP A QUICK INCH
OR TWO OF WIND-BLOWN SNOW AND CREATE HAZARDOUS DRIVING FOR THE
CROWN OF MAINE THIS EVENING DUE TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES. VARIOUS
MEASURES OF LIFT ARE QUITE IMPRESSIVE WITH THIS FRONT. THERE ARE
STEEP LAPSE RATES...AROUND 150 J/KG OF CAPE AND CONSIDERABLE
SHEAR. GUSTS OF 35 MPH TO 40 MPH SHOULD BE EASILY ATTAINABLE. WITH
TOPS APPROACHING H600...QUARTER-MILE VISIBILITIES ARE QUITE
POSSIBLE IN THE SNOW SHOWERS. FURTHER SOUTH...THE FRONT WILL JUST
BRING A WIND SHIFT AND SHARPLY COLDER TEMPERATURES. LOWS WILL DROP
INTO THE TEENS NORTH AND LOWER 20S FOR BANGOR AND DOWN EAST BY
LATE TONIGHT. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL STILL CROSS FRIDAY MORNING AND
WILL LIKELY SET OFF MORE SNOW SHOWERS ON FRIDAY MORNING NORTH OF
HOULTON. NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 30 MPH AND WIND CHILLS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS WILL BE THE BIGGEST STORY FOR FRIDAY. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL CREATE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR MOST LOCATIONS...BUT
DOWNSLOPE DRYING SHOULD ALLOW SOME SUNSHINE TOWARDS BANGOR. HIGHS
WILL BE MID 20S NORTH AND AROUND 30F FOR BANGOR AND DOWN EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ANOTHER S/WV WILL AFFECT THE REGION THIS TERM W/A MODERATION IN
THE AIRMASS BY SUNDAY.

HIGH PRES IS FORECAST TO SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT
W/PARTIAL CLEARING EXPECTED. ANOTHER COLD NIGHT W/OVERNIGHT LOWS
FORECAST TO BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST
WHILE LOWER TEENS FOR CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST. THE S/WV MOVES ACROSS
THE REGION LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THE NAM
AND GFS BOTH SHOW SOME MID LEVEL FORCING W/DECENT RH THROUGH
700MBS. DECIDED TO INCLUDE 30-40% POPS FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON
W/SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST WHERE THE BEST
FORCING WILL BE SITUATED. QPF WILL BE NO MORE THAN 0.05" AND W/A
10:1 SNOW RATIO, DECIDED TO SHOW UP TO 1/2 INCH OF SNOWFALL ACROSS
THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS.

SUNDAY IS EXPECTED TO START OUT CLOUDY W/SOME LEFTOVER SNOW
SHOWER/FLURRIES AND THEN CLEARING IS EXPECTED. A GRADUAL
MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED AS WARMER AIR BEGINS TO
PUSH IN FROM THE WSW. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO CLIMB
IN THE MID/UPPER 30S ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA WHILE
CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST COULD SEE LOW TO MID 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRES WILL RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY W/A CONTINUED WARMUP.

THE 12Z RUNS OF THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE SHOW AN INTENSE LOW PRES
SYSTEM FORECAST TO MOVING N ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON
MONDAY. AS IT DOES SO, IT WILL BRING AN OCCLUDED FRONT ACROSS THE
NEW ENGLAND REGION INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THE 12Z ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN
BETTER AGREEMENT W/TIMING AND QPF. THERE IS SOME DIFLUENCE ALOFT
COMBINED W/A 55 KT LLVL JET TO SUPPORT SOME HEAVIER RAINFALL
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME WIND
GUSTS OF 40 MPH ACROSS THE DOWNEAST AND EASTERN 3RD OF MAINE LATE
MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD
AND ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE NOVEMBER RIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT
W/TEMPERATURES ACTUALLY RISING OVERNIGHT ON SSW WINDS.

THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE A LULL IN THE WINDS AND THEN ANOTHER
SURGE EARLY TUESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT AND CAA. BUFKIT PROFILES SHOW
GUST POTENTIAL FOR 45 MPH DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ON TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE HIT IN THE MORNING ON TUESDAY AND
THEN THEY WILL FALL BACK DURING THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS POTENTIAL
HIGH TUESDAY MORNING TO ACTUALLY HIT THE 50S BEFORE COOLING OFF.
A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY
W/ANOTHER SURGE OF COLDER AIR W/TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR NORMAL
LEVELS AND THE THREAT FOR SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM:  VFR OUTSIDE OF SNOW SQUALLS THAT WILL PASS THROUGH
FVE...CAR AND PQI THIS EVENING. SOME MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED NORTH
OF HUL FRIDAY MORNING.

SHORT TERM: VFR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THERE IS POTENTIAL
FOR A PERIOD OF MVFR FOR KCAR, KPQI AND KFVE SATURDAY AFTERNOON
W/SHSN. VFR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY FOR ALL TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: CONTINUED STRONG SCA THROUGH FRIDAY. A FEW GUSTS MAY
REACH 35 KTS...BUT LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD DO NOT SUPPORT A
SUSTAINED GALE IN SPITE OF THE STRONG COLD AIR MOVING OVER THE
RELATIVELY WARMER WATERS.

SHORT TERM: SCA POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN A LULL
FOR EARLY SATURDAY. ANOTHER SURGE OF SCA CONDITIONS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY. DECIDED TO KEEP GUSTS AT 30 KTS W/THE NEXT
S/WV SATURDAY EVENING. BEST SHOT FOR ANY GALE FORCE GUSTS WILL BE
OVER THE OUTER WATERS. DID NOT STRAY TOO FAR FROM THE MIDNIGHT
CREW`S ASSESSMENT W/THE WINDS ATTM. WAVE HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO
BUILD SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY TO 6-7 FT.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MCW/MCB
SHORT TERM...HEWITT/VJN
LONG TERM...NORTON
AVIATION...MCW/HEWITT/VJN
MARINE...MCW/HEWITT/VJN



000
FXUS61 KCAR 202112
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
412 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. A WEAK WARM FRONT CROSSES
THE AREA LATER SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES REGION ON MONDAY WILL BRING RAIN AND WARMER TEMPERATURES.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE ARCTIC FRONT IS CURRENTLY ENTERING THE WESTERN MAINE BORDER
AND WILL PROPAGATE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
THIS EVENING WITH GUSTY WINDS...SNOW SQUALLS AND RAPIDLY FALLING
TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS FRONT COULD DROP A QUICK INCH
OR TWO OF WIND-BLOWN SNOW AND CREATE HAZARDOUS DRIVING FOR THE
CROWN OF MAINE THIS EVENING DUE TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES. VARIOUS
MEASURES OF LIFT ARE QUITE IMPRESSIVE WITH THIS FRONT. THERE ARE
STEEP LAPSE RATES...AROUND 150 J/KG OF CAPE AND CONSIDERABLE
SHEAR. GUSTS OF 35 MPH TO 40 MPH SHOULD BE EASILY ATTAINABLE. WITH
TOPS APPROACHING H600...QUARTER-MILE VISIBILITIES ARE QUITE
POSSIBLE IN THE SNOW SHOWERS. FURTHER SOUTH...THE FRONT WILL JUST
BRING A WIND SHIFT AND SHARPLY COLDER TEMPERATURES. LOWS WILL DROP
INTO THE TEENS NORTH AND LOWER 20S FOR BANGOR AND DOWN EAST BY
LATE TONIGHT. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL STILL CROSS FRIDAY MORNING AND
WILL LIKELY SET OFF MORE SNOW SHOWERS ON FRIDAY MORNING NORTH OF
HOULTON. NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 30 MPH AND WIND CHILLS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS WILL BE THE BIGGEST STORY FOR FRIDAY. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL CREATE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR MOST LOCATIONS...BUT
DOWNSLOPE DRYING SHOULD ALLOW SOME SUNSHINE TOWARDS BANGOR. HIGHS
WILL BE MID 20S NORTH AND AROUND 30F FOR BANGOR AND DOWN EAST.
&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ANOTHER S/WV WILL AFFECT THE REGION THIS TERM W/A MODERATION IN
THE AIRMASS BY SUNDAY.

HIGH PRES IS FORECAST TO SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT
W/PARTIAL CLEARING EXPECTED. ANOTHER COLD NIGHT W/OVERNIGHT LOWS
FORECAST TO BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST
WHILE LOWER TEENS FOR CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST. THE S/WV MOVES ACROSS
THE REGION LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THE NAM
AND GFS BOTH SHOW SOME MID LEVEL FORCING W/DECENT RH THROUGH
700MBS. DECIDED TO INCLUDE 30-40% POPS FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON
W/SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST WHERE THE BEST
FORCING WILL BE SITUATED. QPF WILL BE NO MORE THAN 0.05" AND W/A
10:1 SNOW RATIO, DECIDED TO SHOW UP TO 1/2 INCH OF SNOWFALL ACROSS
THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS.

SUNDAY IS EXPECTED TO START OUT CLOUDY W/SOME LEFTOVER SNOW
SHOWER/FLURRIES AND THEN CLEARING IS EXPECTED. A GRADUAL
MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED AS WARMER AIR BEGINS TO
PUSH IN FROM THE WSW. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO CLIMB
IN THE MID/UPPER 30S ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA WHILE
CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST COULD SEE LOW TO MID 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRES WILL RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY W/A CONTINUED WARMUP.

THE 12Z RUNS OF THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE SHOW AN INTENSE LOW PRES
SYSTEM FORECAST TO MOVING N ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON
MONDAY. AS IT DOES SO, IT WILL BRING AN OCCLUDED FRONT ACROSS THE
NEW ENGLAND REGION INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THE 12Z ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN
BETTER AGREEMENT W/TIMING AND QPF. THERE IS SOME DIFLUENCE ALOFT
COMBINED W/A 55 KT LLVL JET TO SUPPORT SOME HEAVIER RAINFALL
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME WIND
GUSTS OF 40 MPH ACROSS THE DOWNEAST AND EASTERN 3RD OF MAINE LATE
MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD
AND ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE NOVEMBER RIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT
W/TEMPERATURES ACTUALLY RISING OVERNIGHT ON SSW WINDS.

THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE A LULL IN THE WINDS AND THEN ANOTHER
SURGE EARLY TUESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT AND CAA. BUFKIT PROFILES SHOW
GUST POTENTIAL FOR 45 MPH DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ON TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE HIT IN THE MORNING ON TUESDAY AND
THEN THEY WILL FALL BACK DURING THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS POTENTIAL
HIGH TUESDAY MORNING TO ACTUALLY HIT THE 50S BEFORE COOLING OFF.
A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY
W/ANOTHER SURGE OF COLDER AIR W/TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR NORMAL
LEVELS AND THE THREAT FOR SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM:  VFR OUTSIDE OF SNOW SQUALLS THAT WILL PASS THROUGH
FVE...CAR AND PQI THIS EVENING. SOME MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED NORTH
OF HUL FRIDAY MORNING.

SHORT TERM: VFR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THERE IS POTENTIAL
FOR A PERIOD OF MVFR FOR KCAR, KPQI AND KFVE SATURDAY AFTERNOON
W/SHSN. VFR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY FOR ALL TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: CONTINUED STRONG SCA THROUGH FRIDAY. A FEW GUSTS MAY
REACH 35 KTS...BUT LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD DO NOT SUPPORT A
SUSTAINED GALE IN SPITE OF THE STRONG COLD AIR MOVING OVER THE
RELATIVELY WARMER WATERS.

SHORT TERM: SCA POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN A LULL
FOR EARLY SATURDAY. ANOTHER SURGE OF SCA CONDITIONS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY. DECIDED TO KEEP GUSTS AT 30 KTS W/THE NEXT
S/WV SATURDAY EVENING. BEST SHOT FOR ANY GALE FORCE GUSTS WILL BE
OVER THE OUTER WATERS. DID NOT STRAY TOO FAR FROM THE MIDNIGHT
CREW`S ASSESSMENT W/THE WINDS ATTM. WAVE HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO
BUILD SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY TO 6-7 FT.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ050>052.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MCW
SHORT TERM...HEWITT
LONG TERM...NORTON/HEWITT
AVIATION...MCW/HEWITT
MARINE...MCW/HEWITT



000
FXUS61 KCAR 202112
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
412 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. A WEAK WARM FRONT CROSSES
THE AREA LATER SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES REGION ON MONDAY WILL BRING RAIN AND WARMER TEMPERATURES.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE ARCTIC FRONT IS CURRENTLY ENTERING THE WESTERN MAINE BORDER
AND WILL PROPAGATE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
THIS EVENING WITH GUSTY WINDS...SNOW SQUALLS AND RAPIDLY FALLING
TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS FRONT COULD DROP A QUICK INCH
OR TWO OF WIND-BLOWN SNOW AND CREATE HAZARDOUS DRIVING FOR THE
CROWN OF MAINE THIS EVENING DUE TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES. VARIOUS
MEASURES OF LIFT ARE QUITE IMPRESSIVE WITH THIS FRONT. THERE ARE
STEEP LAPSE RATES...AROUND 150 J/KG OF CAPE AND CONSIDERABLE
SHEAR. GUSTS OF 35 MPH TO 40 MPH SHOULD BE EASILY ATTAINABLE. WITH
TOPS APPROACHING H600...QUARTER-MILE VISIBILITIES ARE QUITE
POSSIBLE IN THE SNOW SHOWERS. FURTHER SOUTH...THE FRONT WILL JUST
BRING A WIND SHIFT AND SHARPLY COLDER TEMPERATURES. LOWS WILL DROP
INTO THE TEENS NORTH AND LOWER 20S FOR BANGOR AND DOWN EAST BY
LATE TONIGHT. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL STILL CROSS FRIDAY MORNING AND
WILL LIKELY SET OFF MORE SNOW SHOWERS ON FRIDAY MORNING NORTH OF
HOULTON. NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 30 MPH AND WIND CHILLS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS WILL BE THE BIGGEST STORY FOR FRIDAY. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL CREATE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR MOST LOCATIONS...BUT
DOWNSLOPE DRYING SHOULD ALLOW SOME SUNSHINE TOWARDS BANGOR. HIGHS
WILL BE MID 20S NORTH AND AROUND 30F FOR BANGOR AND DOWN EAST.
&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ANOTHER S/WV WILL AFFECT THE REGION THIS TERM W/A MODERATION IN
THE AIRMASS BY SUNDAY.

HIGH PRES IS FORECAST TO SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT
W/PARTIAL CLEARING EXPECTED. ANOTHER COLD NIGHT W/OVERNIGHT LOWS
FORECAST TO BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST
WHILE LOWER TEENS FOR CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST. THE S/WV MOVES ACROSS
THE REGION LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THE NAM
AND GFS BOTH SHOW SOME MID LEVEL FORCING W/DECENT RH THROUGH
700MBS. DECIDED TO INCLUDE 30-40% POPS FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON
W/SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST WHERE THE BEST
FORCING WILL BE SITUATED. QPF WILL BE NO MORE THAN 0.05" AND W/A
10:1 SNOW RATIO, DECIDED TO SHOW UP TO 1/2 INCH OF SNOWFALL ACROSS
THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS.

SUNDAY IS EXPECTED TO START OUT CLOUDY W/SOME LEFTOVER SNOW
SHOWER/FLURRIES AND THEN CLEARING IS EXPECTED. A GRADUAL
MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED AS WARMER AIR BEGINS TO
PUSH IN FROM THE WSW. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO CLIMB
IN THE MID/UPPER 30S ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA WHILE
CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST COULD SEE LOW TO MID 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRES WILL RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY W/A CONTINUED WARMUP.

THE 12Z RUNS OF THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE SHOW AN INTENSE LOW PRES
SYSTEM FORECAST TO MOVING N ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON
MONDAY. AS IT DOES SO, IT WILL BRING AN OCCLUDED FRONT ACROSS THE
NEW ENGLAND REGION INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THE 12Z ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN
BETTER AGREEMENT W/TIMING AND QPF. THERE IS SOME DIFLUENCE ALOFT
COMBINED W/A 55 KT LLVL JET TO SUPPORT SOME HEAVIER RAINFALL
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME WIND
GUSTS OF 40 MPH ACROSS THE DOWNEAST AND EASTERN 3RD OF MAINE LATE
MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD
AND ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE NOVEMBER RIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT
W/TEMPERATURES ACTUALLY RISING OVERNIGHT ON SSW WINDS.

THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE A LULL IN THE WINDS AND THEN ANOTHER
SURGE EARLY TUESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT AND CAA. BUFKIT PROFILES SHOW
GUST POTENTIAL FOR 45 MPH DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ON TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE HIT IN THE MORNING ON TUESDAY AND
THEN THEY WILL FALL BACK DURING THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS POTENTIAL
HIGH TUESDAY MORNING TO ACTUALLY HIT THE 50S BEFORE COOLING OFF.
A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY
W/ANOTHER SURGE OF COLDER AIR W/TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR NORMAL
LEVELS AND THE THREAT FOR SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM:  VFR OUTSIDE OF SNOW SQUALLS THAT WILL PASS THROUGH
FVE...CAR AND PQI THIS EVENING. SOME MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED NORTH
OF HUL FRIDAY MORNING.

SHORT TERM: VFR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THERE IS POTENTIAL
FOR A PERIOD OF MVFR FOR KCAR, KPQI AND KFVE SATURDAY AFTERNOON
W/SHSN. VFR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY FOR ALL TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: CONTINUED STRONG SCA THROUGH FRIDAY. A FEW GUSTS MAY
REACH 35 KTS...BUT LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD DO NOT SUPPORT A
SUSTAINED GALE IN SPITE OF THE STRONG COLD AIR MOVING OVER THE
RELATIVELY WARMER WATERS.

SHORT TERM: SCA POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN A LULL
FOR EARLY SATURDAY. ANOTHER SURGE OF SCA CONDITIONS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY. DECIDED TO KEEP GUSTS AT 30 KTS W/THE NEXT
S/WV SATURDAY EVENING. BEST SHOT FOR ANY GALE FORCE GUSTS WILL BE
OVER THE OUTER WATERS. DID NOT STRAY TOO FAR FROM THE MIDNIGHT
CREW`S ASSESSMENT W/THE WINDS ATTM. WAVE HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO
BUILD SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY TO 6-7 FT.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ050>052.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MCW
SHORT TERM...HEWITT
LONG TERM...NORTON/HEWITT
AVIATION...MCW/HEWITT
MARINE...MCW/HEWITT



000
FXUS61 KCAR 202112
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
412 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. A WEAK WARM FRONT CROSSES
THE AREA LATER SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES REGION ON MONDAY WILL BRING RAIN AND WARMER TEMPERATURES.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE ARCTIC FRONT IS CURRENTLY ENTERING THE WESTERN MAINE BORDER
AND WILL PROPAGATE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
THIS EVENING WITH GUSTY WINDS...SNOW SQUALLS AND RAPIDLY FALLING
TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS FRONT COULD DROP A QUICK INCH
OR TWO OF WIND-BLOWN SNOW AND CREATE HAZARDOUS DRIVING FOR THE
CROWN OF MAINE THIS EVENING DUE TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES. VARIOUS
MEASURES OF LIFT ARE QUITE IMPRESSIVE WITH THIS FRONT. THERE ARE
STEEP LAPSE RATES...AROUND 150 J/KG OF CAPE AND CONSIDERABLE
SHEAR. GUSTS OF 35 MPH TO 40 MPH SHOULD BE EASILY ATTAINABLE. WITH
TOPS APPROACHING H600...QUARTER-MILE VISIBILITIES ARE QUITE
POSSIBLE IN THE SNOW SHOWERS. FURTHER SOUTH...THE FRONT WILL JUST
BRING A WIND SHIFT AND SHARPLY COLDER TEMPERATURES. LOWS WILL DROP
INTO THE TEENS NORTH AND LOWER 20S FOR BANGOR AND DOWN EAST BY
LATE TONIGHT. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL STILL CROSS FRIDAY MORNING AND
WILL LIKELY SET OFF MORE SNOW SHOWERS ON FRIDAY MORNING NORTH OF
HOULTON. NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 30 MPH AND WIND CHILLS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS WILL BE THE BIGGEST STORY FOR FRIDAY. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL CREATE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR MOST LOCATIONS...BUT
DOWNSLOPE DRYING SHOULD ALLOW SOME SUNSHINE TOWARDS BANGOR. HIGHS
WILL BE MID 20S NORTH AND AROUND 30F FOR BANGOR AND DOWN EAST.
&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ANOTHER S/WV WILL AFFECT THE REGION THIS TERM W/A MODERATION IN
THE AIRMASS BY SUNDAY.

HIGH PRES IS FORECAST TO SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT
W/PARTIAL CLEARING EXPECTED. ANOTHER COLD NIGHT W/OVERNIGHT LOWS
FORECAST TO BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST
WHILE LOWER TEENS FOR CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST. THE S/WV MOVES ACROSS
THE REGION LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THE NAM
AND GFS BOTH SHOW SOME MID LEVEL FORCING W/DECENT RH THROUGH
700MBS. DECIDED TO INCLUDE 30-40% POPS FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON
W/SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST WHERE THE BEST
FORCING WILL BE SITUATED. QPF WILL BE NO MORE THAN 0.05" AND W/A
10:1 SNOW RATIO, DECIDED TO SHOW UP TO 1/2 INCH OF SNOWFALL ACROSS
THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS.

SUNDAY IS EXPECTED TO START OUT CLOUDY W/SOME LEFTOVER SNOW
SHOWER/FLURRIES AND THEN CLEARING IS EXPECTED. A GRADUAL
MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED AS WARMER AIR BEGINS TO
PUSH IN FROM THE WSW. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO CLIMB
IN THE MID/UPPER 30S ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA WHILE
CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST COULD SEE LOW TO MID 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRES WILL RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY W/A CONTINUED WARMUP.

THE 12Z RUNS OF THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE SHOW AN INTENSE LOW PRES
SYSTEM FORECAST TO MOVING N ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON
MONDAY. AS IT DOES SO, IT WILL BRING AN OCCLUDED FRONT ACROSS THE
NEW ENGLAND REGION INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THE 12Z ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN
BETTER AGREEMENT W/TIMING AND QPF. THERE IS SOME DIFLUENCE ALOFT
COMBINED W/A 55 KT LLVL JET TO SUPPORT SOME HEAVIER RAINFALL
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME WIND
GUSTS OF 40 MPH ACROSS THE DOWNEAST AND EASTERN 3RD OF MAINE LATE
MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD
AND ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE NOVEMBER RIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT
W/TEMPERATURES ACTUALLY RISING OVERNIGHT ON SSW WINDS.

THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE A LULL IN THE WINDS AND THEN ANOTHER
SURGE EARLY TUESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT AND CAA. BUFKIT PROFILES SHOW
GUST POTENTIAL FOR 45 MPH DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ON TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE HIT IN THE MORNING ON TUESDAY AND
THEN THEY WILL FALL BACK DURING THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS POTENTIAL
HIGH TUESDAY MORNING TO ACTUALLY HIT THE 50S BEFORE COOLING OFF.
A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY
W/ANOTHER SURGE OF COLDER AIR W/TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR NORMAL
LEVELS AND THE THREAT FOR SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM:  VFR OUTSIDE OF SNOW SQUALLS THAT WILL PASS THROUGH
FVE...CAR AND PQI THIS EVENING. SOME MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED NORTH
OF HUL FRIDAY MORNING.

SHORT TERM: VFR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THERE IS POTENTIAL
FOR A PERIOD OF MVFR FOR KCAR, KPQI AND KFVE SATURDAY AFTERNOON
W/SHSN. VFR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY FOR ALL TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: CONTINUED STRONG SCA THROUGH FRIDAY. A FEW GUSTS MAY
REACH 35 KTS...BUT LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD DO NOT SUPPORT A
SUSTAINED GALE IN SPITE OF THE STRONG COLD AIR MOVING OVER THE
RELATIVELY WARMER WATERS.

SHORT TERM: SCA POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN A LULL
FOR EARLY SATURDAY. ANOTHER SURGE OF SCA CONDITIONS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY. DECIDED TO KEEP GUSTS AT 30 KTS W/THE NEXT
S/WV SATURDAY EVENING. BEST SHOT FOR ANY GALE FORCE GUSTS WILL BE
OVER THE OUTER WATERS. DID NOT STRAY TOO FAR FROM THE MIDNIGHT
CREW`S ASSESSMENT W/THE WINDS ATTM. WAVE HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO
BUILD SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY TO 6-7 FT.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ050>052.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MCW
SHORT TERM...HEWITT
LONG TERM...NORTON/HEWITT
AVIATION...MCW/HEWITT
MARINE...MCW/HEWITT



000
FXUS61 KCAR 202112
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
412 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. A WEAK WARM FRONT CROSSES
THE AREA LATER SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES REGION ON MONDAY WILL BRING RAIN AND WARMER TEMPERATURES.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE ARCTIC FRONT IS CURRENTLY ENTERING THE WESTERN MAINE BORDER
AND WILL PROPAGATE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
THIS EVENING WITH GUSTY WINDS...SNOW SQUALLS AND RAPIDLY FALLING
TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS FRONT COULD DROP A QUICK INCH
OR TWO OF WIND-BLOWN SNOW AND CREATE HAZARDOUS DRIVING FOR THE
CROWN OF MAINE THIS EVENING DUE TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES. VARIOUS
MEASURES OF LIFT ARE QUITE IMPRESSIVE WITH THIS FRONT. THERE ARE
STEEP LAPSE RATES...AROUND 150 J/KG OF CAPE AND CONSIDERABLE
SHEAR. GUSTS OF 35 MPH TO 40 MPH SHOULD BE EASILY ATTAINABLE. WITH
TOPS APPROACHING H600...QUARTER-MILE VISIBILITIES ARE QUITE
POSSIBLE IN THE SNOW SHOWERS. FURTHER SOUTH...THE FRONT WILL JUST
BRING A WIND SHIFT AND SHARPLY COLDER TEMPERATURES. LOWS WILL DROP
INTO THE TEENS NORTH AND LOWER 20S FOR BANGOR AND DOWN EAST BY
LATE TONIGHT. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL STILL CROSS FRIDAY MORNING AND
WILL LIKELY SET OFF MORE SNOW SHOWERS ON FRIDAY MORNING NORTH OF
HOULTON. NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 30 MPH AND WIND CHILLS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS WILL BE THE BIGGEST STORY FOR FRIDAY. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL CREATE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR MOST LOCATIONS...BUT
DOWNSLOPE DRYING SHOULD ALLOW SOME SUNSHINE TOWARDS BANGOR. HIGHS
WILL BE MID 20S NORTH AND AROUND 30F FOR BANGOR AND DOWN EAST.
&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ANOTHER S/WV WILL AFFECT THE REGION THIS TERM W/A MODERATION IN
THE AIRMASS BY SUNDAY.

HIGH PRES IS FORECAST TO SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT
W/PARTIAL CLEARING EXPECTED. ANOTHER COLD NIGHT W/OVERNIGHT LOWS
FORECAST TO BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST
WHILE LOWER TEENS FOR CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST. THE S/WV MOVES ACROSS
THE REGION LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THE NAM
AND GFS BOTH SHOW SOME MID LEVEL FORCING W/DECENT RH THROUGH
700MBS. DECIDED TO INCLUDE 30-40% POPS FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON
W/SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST WHERE THE BEST
FORCING WILL BE SITUATED. QPF WILL BE NO MORE THAN 0.05" AND W/A
10:1 SNOW RATIO, DECIDED TO SHOW UP TO 1/2 INCH OF SNOWFALL ACROSS
THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS.

SUNDAY IS EXPECTED TO START OUT CLOUDY W/SOME LEFTOVER SNOW
SHOWER/FLURRIES AND THEN CLEARING IS EXPECTED. A GRADUAL
MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED AS WARMER AIR BEGINS TO
PUSH IN FROM THE WSW. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO CLIMB
IN THE MID/UPPER 30S ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA WHILE
CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST COULD SEE LOW TO MID 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRES WILL RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY W/A CONTINUED WARMUP.

THE 12Z RUNS OF THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE SHOW AN INTENSE LOW PRES
SYSTEM FORECAST TO MOVING N ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON
MONDAY. AS IT DOES SO, IT WILL BRING AN OCCLUDED FRONT ACROSS THE
NEW ENGLAND REGION INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THE 12Z ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN
BETTER AGREEMENT W/TIMING AND QPF. THERE IS SOME DIFLUENCE ALOFT
COMBINED W/A 55 KT LLVL JET TO SUPPORT SOME HEAVIER RAINFALL
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME WIND
GUSTS OF 40 MPH ACROSS THE DOWNEAST AND EASTERN 3RD OF MAINE LATE
MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD
AND ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE NOVEMBER RIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT
W/TEMPERATURES ACTUALLY RISING OVERNIGHT ON SSW WINDS.

THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE A LULL IN THE WINDS AND THEN ANOTHER
SURGE EARLY TUESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT AND CAA. BUFKIT PROFILES SHOW
GUST POTENTIAL FOR 45 MPH DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ON TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE HIT IN THE MORNING ON TUESDAY AND
THEN THEY WILL FALL BACK DURING THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS POTENTIAL
HIGH TUESDAY MORNING TO ACTUALLY HIT THE 50S BEFORE COOLING OFF.
A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY
W/ANOTHER SURGE OF COLDER AIR W/TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR NORMAL
LEVELS AND THE THREAT FOR SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM:  VFR OUTSIDE OF SNOW SQUALLS THAT WILL PASS THROUGH
FVE...CAR AND PQI THIS EVENING. SOME MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED NORTH
OF HUL FRIDAY MORNING.

SHORT TERM: VFR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THERE IS POTENTIAL
FOR A PERIOD OF MVFR FOR KCAR, KPQI AND KFVE SATURDAY AFTERNOON
W/SHSN. VFR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY FOR ALL TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: CONTINUED STRONG SCA THROUGH FRIDAY. A FEW GUSTS MAY
REACH 35 KTS...BUT LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD DO NOT SUPPORT A
SUSTAINED GALE IN SPITE OF THE STRONG COLD AIR MOVING OVER THE
RELATIVELY WARMER WATERS.

SHORT TERM: SCA POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN A LULL
FOR EARLY SATURDAY. ANOTHER SURGE OF SCA CONDITIONS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY. DECIDED TO KEEP GUSTS AT 30 KTS W/THE NEXT
S/WV SATURDAY EVENING. BEST SHOT FOR ANY GALE FORCE GUSTS WILL BE
OVER THE OUTER WATERS. DID NOT STRAY TOO FAR FROM THE MIDNIGHT
CREW`S ASSESSMENT W/THE WINDS ATTM. WAVE HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO
BUILD SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY TO 6-7 FT.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ050>052.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MCW
SHORT TERM...HEWITT
LONG TERM...NORTON/HEWITT
AVIATION...MCW/HEWITT
MARINE...MCW/HEWITT



000
FXUS61 KGYX 202052
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
352 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT WITH COLD AIR
SETTLING INTO PLACE ON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE SOUTH
OVER THE WEEKEND..AS A WEAK WAVE CLIPS THE NORTHERN AREAS. LOW
PRESSURE WILL TRACK OUT OF THE MIDWEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES MONDAY...PUSHING A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE REGION LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...BRING SOME RAIN TO THE
REGION...WITH A CHANCE IT WILL START AS SOME FREEZING RAIN IN THE
VALLEYS. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE
MOVING OFFSHORE COULD BRING SOME PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A COLD FRONT IS MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
WHILE THERE IS WIDESPREAD RADAR ECHOS... THE ONLY SCATTERED
REPORTS OF SNOW ACCUMULATION. AN ADDITIONAL CONCERN OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS IS THE CHANCE FOR SNOW SQUALLS ALONG THE LEADING
EDGE OF THE COLD AIR. MOISTURE FROM THE LONG LASTING LAKE EFFECT
SNOW EVENT IN NEW YORK IS GETTING ENTRAINED INTO THE FLOW AND IS
HELPING TO GENERATE ISOLATED HEAVY SNOW OVER VERMONT. THESE SNOW
SQUALLS WILL MOVE EAST AND WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
OVERNIGHT THE COLD AIR MOVES INTO PLACE ALOFT WITH TEMPERATURES
DIPPING INTO THE TEENS. IN THE NORTH CLOUD COVER FROM UPSLOPE FLOW
SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES OUT OF THE SINGLE DIGITS...ALTHOUGH
COLDER TEMPS IN ISOLATED VALLEYS ARE POSSIBLE. THE BIG CONCERN FOR
FRIDAY WILL BE GUSTY WINDS AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLANE WINDS WILL GUST INTO THE 20MPH RANGE. A FEW ISOLATED
GUSTS TO 35 TO 40MPH ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST,
HOWEVER THIS WILL STILL BE BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.

BY FRIDAY NIGHT WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE AS THE COLD AIR
SHIFTS EASTWARDS AND A HIGH BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH ON
SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL ACTUALLY BE SLIGHTLY COLDER FRIDAY
NIGHT AS CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR THE VALLEYS TO DECOUPLE AND
DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
500 MB +PNA PATTERN BECOMES LESS AMPLIFIED OVER THE WEEKEND AND
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A WARM UP ACROSS
THE REGION BECOMING QUITE NOTICEABLE SUNDAY AND MONDAY...AS 850MB
TEMPS LOOK TO SURPASS +10C ON MONDAY...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS AND SOME
RAIN THAT DAY WILL KEEP THINGS FROM WARMING UP TOO MUCH. 12Z GFS
AND EURO WANT TO DEEPEN THE CENTRAL CONUS TROUGH AND PUP UP THE
WEST COAST RIDGE MID TO LATE IN THE WEEK...AND DEVELOP AN
OFFSHORE LOW. THEY DIFFER ON INTENSITY AND TIMING /BY ABOUT 24
HOURS AT THIS POINT/ BUT WORTH NOTING SINCE IT IS DURING
HOLIDAY/TRAVEL PERIOD.

WEAK LOW TRACKS JUST N OF THE INTL BORDER ON SAT AND COULD PRODUCE
A FEW SHSN IN THE N ZONES ESPECIALLY LATE SAT AND SAT NIGHT...BUT
SHOULD STAY DRY IN THE SRN ZONES WITH HIGHS A LITTLE WARMER THAN
FRIDAY...BUT STILL UNLIKELY TO BREAK 40 IN THE S AND FREEZING IN
THE N. WINDS SHIFT MORE W-SW BEHIND THIS SYSTEM AND TEMPS WILL
NOT FALL OFF MUCH SAT NIGHT. THE WARMER AIR BEGINS TO FILTER ON
SUNDAY AND HIGHS WILL BE ABOUT 10F WARMER THAN SATURDAY...IN THE
UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S.

500MB CLOSED LOW DEEPENS OVER THE N CENTRAL CONUS SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE LIFTING NE INTO THE ST LAWRENCE VLY ON
MONDAY. WAA TO THE EAST OF THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
REGION SUN NIGHT...WITH WARM AIR IN PLACE ALOFT. QUESTION IS HOW
COLD WILL IT GET SUN NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE PRECIP? MOST PLACES
EXCEPT FOR THE COLD SPOTS IN THE MTNS SHOULD SEE TEMPS STAY ABV
FREEZING OVERNIGHT...BUT COULD SEE A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN IN
SOME OF THE MTN VLYS LATE SUN NIGHT INTO EARLY MON.

ON MON...WILL BREAK INTO THE WARM SECTOR ALOFT...BUT IT REMAINSTO
BE SEEN IF WE CAN MIX ANY OF THIS DOWN TO THE SFC. STILL...EVEN
WITH CLOUDS...SW FLOW SHOULD BRING IN WARM ENOUGH AIR AT THE SFC
TO PUSH TEMPS ABOVE 50 IN MANY SPOTS...AND DEPENDING ON IF THERE
ARE ANY PROLONGED BREAKS OF SUN...COULD SEE A FEW SPOTS MAKE A RUN
AT 60. THERE WILL BE A THREAT  OF SHRA ON MON IN ADVANCE OF COLD
FROPA LATE IN THE DAY. WEAK RIDGING ON TUE SHOULD PROVIDE A MAINLY
DRY DAY...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS...BUT DOWNSLOPE WILL HELP
KEEP TEMPS ABV NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...HIE WILL SEE MVFR IN SNOW THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
ELSEWHERE CEILINGS WILL BE VFR WITH NW WINDS GUSTING TO 25KTS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...POTENTIAL FOR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS IN RA AND STRATUS
SUN NIGHT INTO EARLY MON.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM... A FEW ISOLATED GUSTS TO 35KTS THROUGH THIS EVENING.
OVERNIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY AS COLD AIR ADVECTION
SETS IN. FRIDAY MAY SEE WINDS INCREASE TO GALE FORCE OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS... AND HAVE ISSUED A GALE WATCH.

LONG TERM...SW FLOW COULD PICK UP ON SUN TO SCA LVLS AND PERSIST
INTO MONDAY. SCA TO LOW GALES POSSIBLE IN W-NW FLOW BEHIND A COLD
FRONT MON NIGHT INTO TUE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ151-153.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CEMPA/CURTIS
NEAR TERM...CURTIS
SHORT TERM...CURTIS
LONG TERM...CEMPA
AVIATION...CEMPA/CURTIS
MARINE...CEMPA/CURTIS



000
FXUS61 KGYX 202052
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
352 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT WITH COLD AIR
SETTLING INTO PLACE ON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE SOUTH
OVER THE WEEKEND..AS A WEAK WAVE CLIPS THE NORTHERN AREAS. LOW
PRESSURE WILL TRACK OUT OF THE MIDWEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES MONDAY...PUSHING A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE REGION LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...BRING SOME RAIN TO THE
REGION...WITH A CHANCE IT WILL START AS SOME FREEZING RAIN IN THE
VALLEYS. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE
MOVING OFFSHORE COULD BRING SOME PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A COLD FRONT IS MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
WHILE THERE IS WIDESPREAD RADAR ECHOS... THE ONLY SCATTERED
REPORTS OF SNOW ACCUMULATION. AN ADDITIONAL CONCERN OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS IS THE CHANCE FOR SNOW SQUALLS ALONG THE LEADING
EDGE OF THE COLD AIR. MOISTURE FROM THE LONG LASTING LAKE EFFECT
SNOW EVENT IN NEW YORK IS GETTING ENTRAINED INTO THE FLOW AND IS
HELPING TO GENERATE ISOLATED HEAVY SNOW OVER VERMONT. THESE SNOW
SQUALLS WILL MOVE EAST AND WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
OVERNIGHT THE COLD AIR MOVES INTO PLACE ALOFT WITH TEMPERATURES
DIPPING INTO THE TEENS. IN THE NORTH CLOUD COVER FROM UPSLOPE FLOW
SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES OUT OF THE SINGLE DIGITS...ALTHOUGH
COLDER TEMPS IN ISOLATED VALLEYS ARE POSSIBLE. THE BIG CONCERN FOR
FRIDAY WILL BE GUSTY WINDS AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLANE WINDS WILL GUST INTO THE 20MPH RANGE. A FEW ISOLATED
GUSTS TO 35 TO 40MPH ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST,
HOWEVER THIS WILL STILL BE BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.

BY FRIDAY NIGHT WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE AS THE COLD AIR
SHIFTS EASTWARDS AND A HIGH BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH ON
SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL ACTUALLY BE SLIGHTLY COLDER FRIDAY
NIGHT AS CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR THE VALLEYS TO DECOUPLE AND
DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
500 MB +PNA PATTERN BECOMES LESS AMPLIFIED OVER THE WEEKEND AND
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A WARM UP ACROSS
THE REGION BECOMING QUITE NOTICEABLE SUNDAY AND MONDAY...AS 850MB
TEMPS LOOK TO SURPASS +10C ON MONDAY...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS AND SOME
RAIN THAT DAY WILL KEEP THINGS FROM WARMING UP TOO MUCH. 12Z GFS
AND EURO WANT TO DEEPEN THE CENTRAL CONUS TROUGH AND PUP UP THE
WEST COAST RIDGE MID TO LATE IN THE WEEK...AND DEVELOP AN
OFFSHORE LOW. THEY DIFFER ON INTENSITY AND TIMING /BY ABOUT 24
HOURS AT THIS POINT/ BUT WORTH NOTING SINCE IT IS DURING
HOLIDAY/TRAVEL PERIOD.

WEAK LOW TRACKS JUST N OF THE INTL BORDER ON SAT AND COULD PRODUCE
A FEW SHSN IN THE N ZONES ESPECIALLY LATE SAT AND SAT NIGHT...BUT
SHOULD STAY DRY IN THE SRN ZONES WITH HIGHS A LITTLE WARMER THAN
FRIDAY...BUT STILL UNLIKELY TO BREAK 40 IN THE S AND FREEZING IN
THE N. WINDS SHIFT MORE W-SW BEHIND THIS SYSTEM AND TEMPS WILL
NOT FALL OFF MUCH SAT NIGHT. THE WARMER AIR BEGINS TO FILTER ON
SUNDAY AND HIGHS WILL BE ABOUT 10F WARMER THAN SATURDAY...IN THE
UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S.

500MB CLOSED LOW DEEPENS OVER THE N CENTRAL CONUS SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE LIFTING NE INTO THE ST LAWRENCE VLY ON
MONDAY. WAA TO THE EAST OF THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
REGION SUN NIGHT...WITH WARM AIR IN PLACE ALOFT. QUESTION IS HOW
COLD WILL IT GET SUN NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE PRECIP? MOST PLACES
EXCEPT FOR THE COLD SPOTS IN THE MTNS SHOULD SEE TEMPS STAY ABV
FREEZING OVERNIGHT...BUT COULD SEE A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN IN
SOME OF THE MTN VLYS LATE SUN NIGHT INTO EARLY MON.

ON MON...WILL BREAK INTO THE WARM SECTOR ALOFT...BUT IT REMAINSTO
BE SEEN IF WE CAN MIX ANY OF THIS DOWN TO THE SFC. STILL...EVEN
WITH CLOUDS...SW FLOW SHOULD BRING IN WARM ENOUGH AIR AT THE SFC
TO PUSH TEMPS ABOVE 50 IN MANY SPOTS...AND DEPENDING ON IF THERE
ARE ANY PROLONGED BREAKS OF SUN...COULD SEE A FEW SPOTS MAKE A RUN
AT 60. THERE WILL BE A THREAT  OF SHRA ON MON IN ADVANCE OF COLD
FROPA LATE IN THE DAY. WEAK RIDGING ON TUE SHOULD PROVIDE A MAINLY
DRY DAY...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS...BUT DOWNSLOPE WILL HELP
KEEP TEMPS ABV NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...HIE WILL SEE MVFR IN SNOW THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
ELSEWHERE CEILINGS WILL BE VFR WITH NW WINDS GUSTING TO 25KTS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...POTENTIAL FOR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS IN RA AND STRATUS
SUN NIGHT INTO EARLY MON.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM... A FEW ISOLATED GUSTS TO 35KTS THROUGH THIS EVENING.
OVERNIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY AS COLD AIR ADVECTION
SETS IN. FRIDAY MAY SEE WINDS INCREASE TO GALE FORCE OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS... AND HAVE ISSUED A GALE WATCH.

LONG TERM...SW FLOW COULD PICK UP ON SUN TO SCA LVLS AND PERSIST
INTO MONDAY. SCA TO LOW GALES POSSIBLE IN W-NW FLOW BEHIND A COLD
FRONT MON NIGHT INTO TUE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ151-153.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CEMPA/CURTIS
NEAR TERM...CURTIS
SHORT TERM...CURTIS
LONG TERM...CEMPA
AVIATION...CEMPA/CURTIS
MARINE...CEMPA/CURTIS




000
FXUS61 KCAR 201824
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
124 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTH OF THE REGION THIS EVENING AND SEND
A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE
GULF OF MAINE THIS MORNING WILL MOVE INTO THE MARITIMES THIS
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE REGION FRIDAY AND
MOVE INTO THE ATLANTIC SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS WELL WEST
OF THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1 PM EST UPDATE...A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER NW AROOSTOOK LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND SWEEP ACROSS NORTHERN AROOSTOOK IN THE EVENING. A
SQUALL LINE IS PROBABLE AND IS EXPECTED TO CREATE TEMPORARILY
HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS AS IT CROSSES THIS EVENING. WIND
GUSTS MAY HIT 35 MPH AND A QUICK INCH OR TWO IS POSSIBLE...MOST
LIKELY IN THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY. THE SQUALL LINE IS FORECAST TO AFFECT
FORT KENT AFTER 5 PM AND SWEEP TOWARDS CARIBOU AFTER 6 PM. THE
LINE IS ONLY EXPECTED TO AFFECT NORTHERN AROOSTOOK COUNTY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE NORTH SHORE OF LAKE HURON EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC TODAY. THE LOW WILL PASS
NORTH OF MAINE THIS EVENING AND INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF SAINT
LAWRENCE BY 12Z FRI. SOME OF THE ENERGY FROM THE MAIN LOW IS
TRANSFERRING TO THE MAINE COAST EARLY THIS MORNING. A VERY WEAK
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MAINE ALONG A STRONG
BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL QUICKLY SCOOT OUT INTO THE WESTERN MARITIMES
THIS AFTERNOON. ANY SNOW ACROSS COASTAL HANCOCK AND CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN WASHINGTON COUNTIES WILL COME TO AN END BY MID-LATE
MORNING. IT IS NOW LOOKING LESS IMPRESSIVE AND ANY ACCUMULATIONS
SHOULD MOSTLY BE AN INCH OR LESS. THERE IS STILL THE POSSIBILITY
OF UP TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW IN SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON COUNTY. IN THE
WAKE OF THE WAVE THERE WILL BE SOME CLEARING ACROSS THE DOWN EAST
REGION. IT WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE WITH A
COUPLE OF SNOW SHOWERS. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
PARENT LOW WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN MAINE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
SWEEP ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION THIS EVENING. THE FRONT
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR A HEAVIER SNOW SQUALL WHICH COULD LOCALLY PRODUCE POOR
VISIBILITY AND DROP AN INCH OF SNOW. STREAMERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
OFF THE ST LAWRENCE TONIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE...ESPECIALLY
DURING THE EVENING.
&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY,
BRINGING A FEW SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES TO NORTHERN MAINE, MAINLY
DURING THE MORNING HOURS. A VERY COLD DRY AIRMASS WILL FOLLOW AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO NEW ENGLAND. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOWER AND MID 20S NORTH TO THE LOWER 30S SOUTH. HOWEVER,
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL SHARPLY OVERNIGHT AS DECENT COLD AIR
ADVECTION SETS UP AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING HIGH. THE CENTER OF THE
HIGH WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH, WHICH MEANS WINDS WILL LIKELY STAY
UP, LIMITING THE AMOUNT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING. EVEN STILL, FRIDAY
NIGHT WILL BE COLD, WITH LOWS IN THE NORTH IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MAINE WILL GENERALLY BOTTOM OUT IN THE 10 TO
15 DEGREE RANGE, WITH THE COAST 15 TO 20.

FOR SATURDAY...THE HIGH SLIDES TO OUR SOUTH, RESULTING IN ZONAL FLOW
ACROSS THE REGION. WARM ADVECTION AROUND THE BACK OF THE HIGH WILL
ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES TO REACH A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THOSE ON
FRIDAY. THERE WILL BE SOME SNOW SHOWERS AROUND AS WELL, MAINLY FOR
THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION
WILL BE LESS THAN AN INCH.
&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
OUTSIDE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY...THE BIG STORY FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR A BIG WARMUP FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. LOW PRESSURE
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN LIFT
NORTHWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
ALLOW A STREAM OF WARMER AIR TO MOVE INTO THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES, ALONG WITH A WIDE SWATH OF WARM ADVECTION PRECIPITATION.
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BROAD SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO MOVE
INTO OUR REGION SUNDAY NIGHT, STARTING OUT AS SNOW BUT CHANGING
OVER TO RAIN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. CAN`T TOTALLY RULE OUT SOME
MIXED PRECIPITATION DURING THE TRANSITION, BUT THERE`S TOO MUCH
UNCERTAINTY FOR THE DETAILS THIS FAR IN ADVANCE. REGARDLESS,
EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS ON MONDAY AS TEMPERATURES SOAR INTO
THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. WE`LL SEE SHOWERS CONTINUING RIGHT INTO
TUESDAY, WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN, EVEN
MONDAY NIGHT. BY THE TIME THE COLDER AIR ARRIVES, EXPECT MUCH OF
THE PRECIPITATION TO BE DONE, WITH JUST SOME WRAP AROUND SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER OUR NORTH AND WEST.
&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: ALL TAF SITES ARE VFR AS OF 6 AM...BUT WILL LOWER TO
MVFR AT TIMES THIS MORNING AT THE DOWN EAST TERMINALS. CEILINGS
SHOULD LOWER TO MVFR AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS BY THIS AFTERNOON
WITH BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE IN ANY HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS OF SQUALLS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.

SHORT TERM: MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE AT THE NORTHERN SITES
THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH CROSSES THE REGION.
HOWEVER, SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT FRIDAY
NIGHT WITH VFR TO PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. LOWER CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES RETURN FOR NORTHERN AREAS ON SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH MVFR CONDITIONS IN LIGHT SNOW. WE`LL SE A
RETURN TO VFR AT ALL SITES ON SUNDAY, BUT LOW PRESSURE MOVING
NORTHWARD WELL TO OUR WEST WILL BRING SNOW CHANGING OVER TO RAIN
SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN ON MONDAY. EXPECT PREVAILING
MVFR WITH IFR POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: THE SCA WAS EXTENDED THROUGH TONIGHT. A FEW GUSTS MAY
APPROACH 35 KNOTS LATE TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: THE SMALL CRAFT WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS WINDS AND WAVES WILL REMAIN ABOVE SCA
LEVELS DUE TO COLD AIR ADVECTION OVER THE RELATIVELY WARM WATERS.
IT LOOKS LIKE WINDS MAY APPROACH GALE CRITERIA, BUT WILL HOLD OFF
ON ANY GALE WATCHES AT THIS TIME AS IT LOOKS MARGINAL RIGHT NOW.
LATER SHIFTS MAY HAVE TO MAKE CHANGES TO THE CURRENT HEADLINES AS
WE DRAW NEARER TO THE WEEKEND.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ050>052.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CB/MCW
SHORT TERM...HASTINGS
LONG TERM...HASTINGS
AVIATION...CB/MCW/HASTINGS
MARINE...CB/MCW/HASTINGS




000
FXUS61 KCAR 201824
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
124 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTH OF THE REGION THIS EVENING AND SEND
A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE
GULF OF MAINE THIS MORNING WILL MOVE INTO THE MARITIMES THIS
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE REGION FRIDAY AND
MOVE INTO THE ATLANTIC SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS WELL WEST
OF THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1 PM EST UPDATE...A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER NW AROOSTOOK LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND SWEEP ACROSS NORTHERN AROOSTOOK IN THE EVENING. A
SQUALL LINE IS PROBABLE AND IS EXPECTED TO CREATE TEMPORARILY
HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS AS IT CROSSES THIS EVENING. WIND
GUSTS MAY HIT 35 MPH AND A QUICK INCH OR TWO IS POSSIBLE...MOST
LIKELY IN THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY. THE SQUALL LINE IS FORECAST TO AFFECT
FORT KENT AFTER 5 PM AND SWEEP TOWARDS CARIBOU AFTER 6 PM. THE
LINE IS ONLY EXPECTED TO AFFECT NORTHERN AROOSTOOK COUNTY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE NORTH SHORE OF LAKE HURON EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC TODAY. THE LOW WILL PASS
NORTH OF MAINE THIS EVENING AND INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF SAINT
LAWRENCE BY 12Z FRI. SOME OF THE ENERGY FROM THE MAIN LOW IS
TRANSFERRING TO THE MAINE COAST EARLY THIS MORNING. A VERY WEAK
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MAINE ALONG A STRONG
BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL QUICKLY SCOOT OUT INTO THE WESTERN MARITIMES
THIS AFTERNOON. ANY SNOW ACROSS COASTAL HANCOCK AND CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN WASHINGTON COUNTIES WILL COME TO AN END BY MID-LATE
MORNING. IT IS NOW LOOKING LESS IMPRESSIVE AND ANY ACCUMULATIONS
SHOULD MOSTLY BE AN INCH OR LESS. THERE IS STILL THE POSSIBILITY
OF UP TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW IN SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON COUNTY. IN THE
WAKE OF THE WAVE THERE WILL BE SOME CLEARING ACROSS THE DOWN EAST
REGION. IT WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE WITH A
COUPLE OF SNOW SHOWERS. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
PARENT LOW WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN MAINE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
SWEEP ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION THIS EVENING. THE FRONT
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR A HEAVIER SNOW SQUALL WHICH COULD LOCALLY PRODUCE POOR
VISIBILITY AND DROP AN INCH OF SNOW. STREAMERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
OFF THE ST LAWRENCE TONIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE...ESPECIALLY
DURING THE EVENING.
&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY,
BRINGING A FEW SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES TO NORTHERN MAINE, MAINLY
DURING THE MORNING HOURS. A VERY COLD DRY AIRMASS WILL FOLLOW AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO NEW ENGLAND. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOWER AND MID 20S NORTH TO THE LOWER 30S SOUTH. HOWEVER,
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL SHARPLY OVERNIGHT AS DECENT COLD AIR
ADVECTION SETS UP AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING HIGH. THE CENTER OF THE
HIGH WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH, WHICH MEANS WINDS WILL LIKELY STAY
UP, LIMITING THE AMOUNT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING. EVEN STILL, FRIDAY
NIGHT WILL BE COLD, WITH LOWS IN THE NORTH IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MAINE WILL GENERALLY BOTTOM OUT IN THE 10 TO
15 DEGREE RANGE, WITH THE COAST 15 TO 20.

FOR SATURDAY...THE HIGH SLIDES TO OUR SOUTH, RESULTING IN ZONAL FLOW
ACROSS THE REGION. WARM ADVECTION AROUND THE BACK OF THE HIGH WILL
ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES TO REACH A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THOSE ON
FRIDAY. THERE WILL BE SOME SNOW SHOWERS AROUND AS WELL, MAINLY FOR
THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION
WILL BE LESS THAN AN INCH.
&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
OUTSIDE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY...THE BIG STORY FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR A BIG WARMUP FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. LOW PRESSURE
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN LIFT
NORTHWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
ALLOW A STREAM OF WARMER AIR TO MOVE INTO THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES, ALONG WITH A WIDE SWATH OF WARM ADVECTION PRECIPITATION.
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BROAD SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO MOVE
INTO OUR REGION SUNDAY NIGHT, STARTING OUT AS SNOW BUT CHANGING
OVER TO RAIN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. CAN`T TOTALLY RULE OUT SOME
MIXED PRECIPITATION DURING THE TRANSITION, BUT THERE`S TOO MUCH
UNCERTAINTY FOR THE DETAILS THIS FAR IN ADVANCE. REGARDLESS,
EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS ON MONDAY AS TEMPERATURES SOAR INTO
THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. WE`LL SEE SHOWERS CONTINUING RIGHT INTO
TUESDAY, WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN, EVEN
MONDAY NIGHT. BY THE TIME THE COLDER AIR ARRIVES, EXPECT MUCH OF
THE PRECIPITATION TO BE DONE, WITH JUST SOME WRAP AROUND SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER OUR NORTH AND WEST.
&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: ALL TAF SITES ARE VFR AS OF 6 AM...BUT WILL LOWER TO
MVFR AT TIMES THIS MORNING AT THE DOWN EAST TERMINALS. CEILINGS
SHOULD LOWER TO MVFR AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS BY THIS AFTERNOON
WITH BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE IN ANY HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS OF SQUALLS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.

SHORT TERM: MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE AT THE NORTHERN SITES
THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH CROSSES THE REGION.
HOWEVER, SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT FRIDAY
NIGHT WITH VFR TO PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. LOWER CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES RETURN FOR NORTHERN AREAS ON SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH MVFR CONDITIONS IN LIGHT SNOW. WE`LL SE A
RETURN TO VFR AT ALL SITES ON SUNDAY, BUT LOW PRESSURE MOVING
NORTHWARD WELL TO OUR WEST WILL BRING SNOW CHANGING OVER TO RAIN
SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN ON MONDAY. EXPECT PREVAILING
MVFR WITH IFR POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: THE SCA WAS EXTENDED THROUGH TONIGHT. A FEW GUSTS MAY
APPROACH 35 KNOTS LATE TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: THE SMALL CRAFT WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS WINDS AND WAVES WILL REMAIN ABOVE SCA
LEVELS DUE TO COLD AIR ADVECTION OVER THE RELATIVELY WARM WATERS.
IT LOOKS LIKE WINDS MAY APPROACH GALE CRITERIA, BUT WILL HOLD OFF
ON ANY GALE WATCHES AT THIS TIME AS IT LOOKS MARGINAL RIGHT NOW.
LATER SHIFTS MAY HAVE TO MAKE CHANGES TO THE CURRENT HEADLINES AS
WE DRAW NEARER TO THE WEEKEND.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ050>052.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CB/MCW
SHORT TERM...HASTINGS
LONG TERM...HASTINGS
AVIATION...CB/MCW/HASTINGS
MARINE...CB/MCW/HASTINGS



000
FXUS61 KGYX 201809
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
109 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE REGION TODAY...BEFORE EXITING
INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES FRIDAY. AN ARCTIC AIR MASS WITH COLDER
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE START OF THE WEEKEND. A
WARM UP FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK AS THE
MODELS DEVELOP A BROAD SOUTHERLY FLOW.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1PM UPDATE... INCREASE WINDSPEEDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. GUSTS
HAVE PICKED UP AHEAD OF THE COLD AIR. EXPECT STRONG WINDS TO
CONTINUE THOUGH TOMORROW AND WILL BE CONSIDERING HEADLINES WITH
THE NEXT UPDATE.

9AM UPDATE... JUST FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO
TEMPERATURES AS SHELTERED MOUNTAIN VALLEY SAW TEMPERATURES STAY A
BIT COLDER THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. ALSO INCREASED THE WINDS
OVER THE WATERS IN ANTICIPATION OF STRENGTHENING COLD AIR
ADVECTION TODAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY BUT WITH VERY LIMITED
MOISTURE. SCT SNW SHWRS ARE EXPECTED IN THE MTNS OTHERWISE DRY
DOWNSLOPING WNWLY WINDS WILL ALLOW PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. TEMPS WILL REMAIN COLD AND USED A BLEND OF
THE MODELS FOR MAX TEMPS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
A MUCH COLDER ARCTIC AIR MASS ARRIVES LATER TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING WITH MORE SCT SNW SHWRS ACCOMPANYING THE COLD AIR BUT ONCE
AGAIN REMAINING IN THE MTNS WHILE STRONG DOWNSLOPING WINDS KEEP
CONDITIONS DRY ELSEWHERE. TEMPS WILL BECOME COLDER FRI WITH GUSTY
WNWLY WINDS. ONCE AGAIN A BLEND OF MODELS FOR TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE LONG WAVE PATTERN
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WE BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH THE
UPPER TROUGH AND CORE OF THE COLD AIR LIFTING OUT INTO THE
MARITIMES. WEAK RIDGING AND A WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR
MODERATING TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY. WARM AIR ADVECTION CLOUDS
AND SPOTTY LIGHT PRECIPITATION ARRIVE BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND
LINGERS SUNDAY. MILD BUT INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED EARLY NEXT WEEK
AHEAD OF AN EVOLVING UPPER TROUGH THAT EVENTUALLY ENCOMPASSES MUCH
OF THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CONUS. LOW PRESSURE AND A
TRAILING COLD FRONT CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY...WITH ANOTHER COLD
FRONT AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES TO FOLLOW FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH FRI.

LONG TERM...

SUN...SCT MVFR PSBL IN RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SCAS WILL REMAIN UP DUE TO GUSTY WINDS AND SEAS
TODAY AND INTO FRI MORNING. THESE CONDITIONS MAY CONTINUE RIGHT
THROUGH FRI AND SCA MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED THROUGH MOST OF FRI.

LONG TERM...

SAT - MON...GALES POSSIBLE...XCP SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND SEAS IN
THE BAYS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CURTIS
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...



000
FXUS61 KGYX 201809
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
109 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE REGION TODAY...BEFORE EXITING
INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES FRIDAY. AN ARCTIC AIR MASS WITH COLDER
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE START OF THE WEEKEND. A
WARM UP FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK AS THE
MODELS DEVELOP A BROAD SOUTHERLY FLOW.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1PM UPDATE... INCREASE WINDSPEEDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. GUSTS
HAVE PICKED UP AHEAD OF THE COLD AIR. EXPECT STRONG WINDS TO
CONTINUE THOUGH TOMORROW AND WILL BE CONSIDERING HEADLINES WITH
THE NEXT UPDATE.

9AM UPDATE... JUST FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO
TEMPERATURES AS SHELTERED MOUNTAIN VALLEY SAW TEMPERATURES STAY A
BIT COLDER THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. ALSO INCREASED THE WINDS
OVER THE WATERS IN ANTICIPATION OF STRENGTHENING COLD AIR
ADVECTION TODAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY BUT WITH VERY LIMITED
MOISTURE. SCT SNW SHWRS ARE EXPECTED IN THE MTNS OTHERWISE DRY
DOWNSLOPING WNWLY WINDS WILL ALLOW PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. TEMPS WILL REMAIN COLD AND USED A BLEND OF
THE MODELS FOR MAX TEMPS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
A MUCH COLDER ARCTIC AIR MASS ARRIVES LATER TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING WITH MORE SCT SNW SHWRS ACCOMPANYING THE COLD AIR BUT ONCE
AGAIN REMAINING IN THE MTNS WHILE STRONG DOWNSLOPING WINDS KEEP
CONDITIONS DRY ELSEWHERE. TEMPS WILL BECOME COLDER FRI WITH GUSTY
WNWLY WINDS. ONCE AGAIN A BLEND OF MODELS FOR TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE LONG WAVE PATTERN
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WE BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH THE
UPPER TROUGH AND CORE OF THE COLD AIR LIFTING OUT INTO THE
MARITIMES. WEAK RIDGING AND A WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR
MODERATING TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY. WARM AIR ADVECTION CLOUDS
AND SPOTTY LIGHT PRECIPITATION ARRIVE BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND
LINGERS SUNDAY. MILD BUT INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED EARLY NEXT WEEK
AHEAD OF AN EVOLVING UPPER TROUGH THAT EVENTUALLY ENCOMPASSES MUCH
OF THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CONUS. LOW PRESSURE AND A
TRAILING COLD FRONT CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY...WITH ANOTHER COLD
FRONT AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES TO FOLLOW FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH FRI.

LONG TERM...

SUN...SCT MVFR PSBL IN RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SCAS WILL REMAIN UP DUE TO GUSTY WINDS AND SEAS
TODAY AND INTO FRI MORNING. THESE CONDITIONS MAY CONTINUE RIGHT
THROUGH FRI AND SCA MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED THROUGH MOST OF FRI.

LONG TERM...

SAT - MON...GALES POSSIBLE...XCP SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND SEAS IN
THE BAYS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CURTIS
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...




000
FXUS61 KCAR 201526
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1026 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTH OF THE REGION THIS EVENING AND SEND
A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE
GULF OF MAINE THIS MORNING WILL MOVE INTO THE MARITIMES THIS
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE REGION FRIDAY AND
MOVE INTO THE ATLANTIC SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS WELL WEST
OF THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
10 AM EST UPDATE...A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER NW AROOSTOOK LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND SWEEP ACROSS NORTHERN AROOSTOOK IN THE EVENING. A
SQUALL LINE MAY SET UP AND CREATE TEMPORARILY HAZARDOUS DRIVING
CONDITIONS AS IT CROSSES THIS EVENING. A QUICK INCH OR TWO IS
POSSIBLE...MUST LIKELY IN THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE NORTH SHORE OF LAKE HURON EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC TODAY. THE LOW WILL PASS
NORTH OF MAINE THIS EVENING AND INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF SAINT
LAWRENCE BY 12Z FRI. SOME OF THE ENERGY FROM THE MAIN LOW IS
TRANSFERRING TO THE MAINE COAST EARLY THIS MORNING. A VERY WEAK
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MAINE ALONG A STRONG
BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL QUICKLY SCOOT OUT INTO THE WESTERN MARITIMES
THIS AFTERNOON. ANY SNOW ACROSS COASTAL HANCOCK AND CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN WASHINGTON COUNTIES WILL COME TO AN END BY MID-LATE
MORNING. IT IS NOW LOOKING LESS IMPRESSIVE AND ANY ACCUMULATIONS
SHOULD MOSTLY BE AN INCH OR LESS. THERE IS STILL THE POSSIBILITY
OF UP TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW IN SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON COUNTY. IN THE
WAKE OF THE WAVE THERE WILL BE SOME CLEARING ACROSS THE DOWN EAST
REGION. IT WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE WITH A
COUPLE OF SNOW SHOWERS. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
PARENT LOW WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN MAINE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
SWEEP ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION THIS EVENING. THE FRONT
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR A HEAVIER SNOW SQUALL WHICH COULD LOCALLY PRODUCE POOR
VISIBILITY AND DROP AN INCH OF SNOW. STREAMERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
OFF THE ST LAWRENCE TONIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE...ESPECIALLY
DURING THE EVENING.
&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY,
BRINGING A FEW SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES TO NORTHERN MAINE, MAINLY
DURING THE MORNING HOURS. A VERY COLD DRY AIRMASS WILL FOLLOW AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO NEW ENGLAND. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOWER AND MID 20S NORTH TO THE LOWER 30S SOUTH. HOWEVER,
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL SHARPLY OVERNIGHT AS DECENT COLD AIR
ADVECTION SETS UP AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING HIGH. THE CENTER OF THE
HIGH WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH, WHICH MEANS WINDS WILL LIKELY STAY
UP, LIMITING THE AMOUNT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING. EVEN STILL, FRIDAY
NIGHT WILL BE COLD, WITH LOWS IN THE NORTH IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MAINE WILL GENERALLY BOTTOM OUT IN THE 10 TO
15 DEGREE RANGE, WITH THE COAST 15 TO 20.

FOR SATURDAY...THE HIGH SLIDES TO OUR SOUTH, RESULTING IN ZONAL FLOW
ACROSS THE REGION. WARM ADVECTION AROUND THE BACK OF THE HIGH WILL
ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES TO REACH A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THOSE ON
FRIDAY. THERE WILL BE SOME SNOW SHOWERS AROUND AS WELL, MAINLY FOR
THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION
WILL BE LESS THAN AN INCH.
&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
OUTSIDE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY...THE BIG STORY FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR A BIG WARMUP FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. LOW PRESSURE
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN LIFT
NORTHWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
ALLOW A STREAM OF WARMER AIR TO MOVE INTO THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES, ALONG WITH A WIDE SWATH OF WARM ADVECTION PRECIPITATION.
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BROAD SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO MOVE
INTO OUR REGION SUNDAY NIGHT, STARTING OUT AS SNOW BUT CHANGING
OVER TO RAIN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. CAN`T TOTALLY RULE OUT SOME
MIXED PRECIPITATION DURING THE TRANSITION, BUT THERE`S TOO MUCH
UNCERTAINTY FOR THE DETAILS THIS FAR IN ADVANCE. REGARDLESS,
EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS ON MONDAY AS TEMPERATURES SOAR INTO
THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. WE`LL SEE SHOWERS CONTINUING RIGHT INTO
TUESDAY, WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN, EVEN
MONDAY NIGHT. BY THE TIME THE COLDER AIR ARRIVES, EXPECT MUCH OF
THE PRECIPITATION TO BE DONE, WITH JUST SOME WRAP AROUND SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER OUR NORTH AND WEST.
&&

.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: ALL TAF SITES ARE VFR AS OF 6 AM...BUT WILL LOWER TO
MVFR AT TIMES THIS MORNING AT THE DOWN EAST TERMINALS. CEILINGS
SHOULD LOWER TO MVFR AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS BY THIS AFTERNOON
WITH BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE IN ANY HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS OF SQUALLS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.

SHORT TERM: MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE AT THE NORTHERN SITES
THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH CROSSES THE REGION.
HOWEVER, SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT FRIDAY
NIGHT WITH VFR TO PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. LOWER CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES RETURN FOR NORTHERN AREAS ON SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH MVFR CONDITIONS IN LIGHT SNOW. WE`LL SE A
RETURN TO VFR AT ALL SITES ON SUNDAY, BUT LOW PRESSURE MOVING
NORTHWARD WELL TO OUR WEST WILL BRING SNOW CHANGING OVER TO RAIN
SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN ON MONDAY. EXPECT PREVAILING
MVFR WITH IFR POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: THE SCA WAS EXTENDED THROUGH TONIGHT. A FEW GUSTS MAY
APPROACH 35 KNOTS LATE TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: THE SMALL CRAFT WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS WINDS AND WAVES WILL REMAIN ABOVE SCA
LEVELS DUE TO COLD AIR ADVECTION OVER THE RELATIVELY WARM WATERS.
IT LOOKS LIKE WINDS MAY APPROACH GALE CRITERIA, BUT WILL HOLD OFF
ON ANY GALE WATCHES AT THIS TIME AS IT LOOKS MARGINAL RIGHT NOW.
LATER SHIFTS MAY HAVE TO MAKE CHANGES TO THE CURRENT HEADLINES AS
WE DRAW NEARER TO THE WEEKEND.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ050>052.
&&
$$

NEAR TERM...CB/MCW
SHORT TERM...HASTINGS
LONG TERM...HASTINGS
AVIATION...CB/MCW/HASTINGS
MARINE...CB/MCW/HASTINGS




000
FXUS61 KCAR 201526
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1026 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTH OF THE REGION THIS EVENING AND SEND
A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE
GULF OF MAINE THIS MORNING WILL MOVE INTO THE MARITIMES THIS
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE REGION FRIDAY AND
MOVE INTO THE ATLANTIC SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS WELL WEST
OF THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
10 AM EST UPDATE...A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER NW AROOSTOOK LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND SWEEP ACROSS NORTHERN AROOSTOOK IN THE EVENING. A
SQUALL LINE MAY SET UP AND CREATE TEMPORARILY HAZARDOUS DRIVING
CONDITIONS AS IT CROSSES THIS EVENING. A QUICK INCH OR TWO IS
POSSIBLE...MUST LIKELY IN THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE NORTH SHORE OF LAKE HURON EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC TODAY. THE LOW WILL PASS
NORTH OF MAINE THIS EVENING AND INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF SAINT
LAWRENCE BY 12Z FRI. SOME OF THE ENERGY FROM THE MAIN LOW IS
TRANSFERRING TO THE MAINE COAST EARLY THIS MORNING. A VERY WEAK
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MAINE ALONG A STRONG
BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL QUICKLY SCOOT OUT INTO THE WESTERN MARITIMES
THIS AFTERNOON. ANY SNOW ACROSS COASTAL HANCOCK AND CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN WASHINGTON COUNTIES WILL COME TO AN END BY MID-LATE
MORNING. IT IS NOW LOOKING LESS IMPRESSIVE AND ANY ACCUMULATIONS
SHOULD MOSTLY BE AN INCH OR LESS. THERE IS STILL THE POSSIBILITY
OF UP TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW IN SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON COUNTY. IN THE
WAKE OF THE WAVE THERE WILL BE SOME CLEARING ACROSS THE DOWN EAST
REGION. IT WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE WITH A
COUPLE OF SNOW SHOWERS. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
PARENT LOW WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN MAINE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
SWEEP ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION THIS EVENING. THE FRONT
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR A HEAVIER SNOW SQUALL WHICH COULD LOCALLY PRODUCE POOR
VISIBILITY AND DROP AN INCH OF SNOW. STREAMERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
OFF THE ST LAWRENCE TONIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE...ESPECIALLY
DURING THE EVENING.
&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY,
BRINGING A FEW SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES TO NORTHERN MAINE, MAINLY
DURING THE MORNING HOURS. A VERY COLD DRY AIRMASS WILL FOLLOW AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO NEW ENGLAND. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOWER AND MID 20S NORTH TO THE LOWER 30S SOUTH. HOWEVER,
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL SHARPLY OVERNIGHT AS DECENT COLD AIR
ADVECTION SETS UP AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING HIGH. THE CENTER OF THE
HIGH WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH, WHICH MEANS WINDS WILL LIKELY STAY
UP, LIMITING THE AMOUNT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING. EVEN STILL, FRIDAY
NIGHT WILL BE COLD, WITH LOWS IN THE NORTH IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MAINE WILL GENERALLY BOTTOM OUT IN THE 10 TO
15 DEGREE RANGE, WITH THE COAST 15 TO 20.

FOR SATURDAY...THE HIGH SLIDES TO OUR SOUTH, RESULTING IN ZONAL FLOW
ACROSS THE REGION. WARM ADVECTION AROUND THE BACK OF THE HIGH WILL
ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES TO REACH A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THOSE ON
FRIDAY. THERE WILL BE SOME SNOW SHOWERS AROUND AS WELL, MAINLY FOR
THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION
WILL BE LESS THAN AN INCH.
&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
OUTSIDE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY...THE BIG STORY FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR A BIG WARMUP FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. LOW PRESSURE
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN LIFT
NORTHWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
ALLOW A STREAM OF WARMER AIR TO MOVE INTO THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES, ALONG WITH A WIDE SWATH OF WARM ADVECTION PRECIPITATION.
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BROAD SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO MOVE
INTO OUR REGION SUNDAY NIGHT, STARTING OUT AS SNOW BUT CHANGING
OVER TO RAIN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. CAN`T TOTALLY RULE OUT SOME
MIXED PRECIPITATION DURING THE TRANSITION, BUT THERE`S TOO MUCH
UNCERTAINTY FOR THE DETAILS THIS FAR IN ADVANCE. REGARDLESS,
EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS ON MONDAY AS TEMPERATURES SOAR INTO
THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. WE`LL SEE SHOWERS CONTINUING RIGHT INTO
TUESDAY, WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN, EVEN
MONDAY NIGHT. BY THE TIME THE COLDER AIR ARRIVES, EXPECT MUCH OF
THE PRECIPITATION TO BE DONE, WITH JUST SOME WRAP AROUND SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER OUR NORTH AND WEST.
&&

.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: ALL TAF SITES ARE VFR AS OF 6 AM...BUT WILL LOWER TO
MVFR AT TIMES THIS MORNING AT THE DOWN EAST TERMINALS. CEILINGS
SHOULD LOWER TO MVFR AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS BY THIS AFTERNOON
WITH BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE IN ANY HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS OF SQUALLS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.

SHORT TERM: MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE AT THE NORTHERN SITES
THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH CROSSES THE REGION.
HOWEVER, SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT FRIDAY
NIGHT WITH VFR TO PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. LOWER CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES RETURN FOR NORTHERN AREAS ON SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH MVFR CONDITIONS IN LIGHT SNOW. WE`LL SE A
RETURN TO VFR AT ALL SITES ON SUNDAY, BUT LOW PRESSURE MOVING
NORTHWARD WELL TO OUR WEST WILL BRING SNOW CHANGING OVER TO RAIN
SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN ON MONDAY. EXPECT PREVAILING
MVFR WITH IFR POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: THE SCA WAS EXTENDED THROUGH TONIGHT. A FEW GUSTS MAY
APPROACH 35 KNOTS LATE TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: THE SMALL CRAFT WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS WINDS AND WAVES WILL REMAIN ABOVE SCA
LEVELS DUE TO COLD AIR ADVECTION OVER THE RELATIVELY WARM WATERS.
IT LOOKS LIKE WINDS MAY APPROACH GALE CRITERIA, BUT WILL HOLD OFF
ON ANY GALE WATCHES AT THIS TIME AS IT LOOKS MARGINAL RIGHT NOW.
LATER SHIFTS MAY HAVE TO MAKE CHANGES TO THE CURRENT HEADLINES AS
WE DRAW NEARER TO THE WEEKEND.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ050>052.
&&
$$

NEAR TERM...CB/MCW
SHORT TERM...HASTINGS
LONG TERM...HASTINGS
AVIATION...CB/MCW/HASTINGS
MARINE...CB/MCW/HASTINGS



000
FXUS61 KGYX 201343
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
843 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE REGION TODAY...BEFORE EXITING
INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES FRIDAY. AN ARCTIC AIR MASS WITH COLDER
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE START OF THE WEEKEND. A
WARM UP FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK AS THE
MODELS DEVELOP A BROAD SOUTHERLY FLOW.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
9AM UPDATE... JUST FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES AS SHELTERED
MOUNTAIN VALLEY SAW TEMPERATURES STAY A BIT COLDER THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS. ALSO INCREASED THE WINDS OVER THE WATERS IN
ANTICIPATION OF STRENGTHENING COLD AIR ADVECTION TODAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY BUT WITH VERY LIMITED
MOISTURE. SCT SNW SHWRS ARE EXPECTED IN THE MTNS OTHERWISE DRY
DOWNSLOPING WNWLY WINDS WILL ALLOW PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. TEMPS WILL REMAIN COLD AND USED A BLEND OF
THE MODELS FOR MAX TEMPS.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
A MUCH COLDER ARCTIC AIR MASS ARRIVES LATER TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING WITH MORE SCT SNW SHWRS ACCOMPANYING THE COLD AIR BUT ONCE
AGAIN REMAINING IN THE MTNS WHILE STRONG DOWNSLOPING WINDS KEEP
CONDITIONS DRY ELSEWHERE. TEMPS WILL BECOME COLDER FRI WITH GUSTY
WNWLY WINDS. ONCE AGAIN A BLEND OF MODELS FOR TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE LONG WAVE PATTERN
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WE BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH THE
UPPER TROUGH AND CORE OF THE COLD AIR LIFTING OUT INTO THE
MARITIMES. WEAK RIDGING AND A WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR
MODERATING TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY. WARM AIR ADVECTION CLOUDS
AND SPOTTY LIGHT PRECIPITATION ARRIVE BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND
LINGERS SUNDAY. MILD BUT INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED EARLY NEXT WEEK
AHEAD OF AN EVOLVING UPPER TROUGH THAT EVENTUALLY ENCOMPASSES MUCH
OF THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CONUS. LOW PRESSURE AND A
TRAILING COLD FRONT CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY...WITH ANOTHER COLD
FRONT AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES TO FOLLOW FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH FRI.

LONG TERM...

SUN...SCT MVFR PSBL IN RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SCAS WILL REMAIN UP DUE TO GUSTY WINDS AND SEAS
TODAY AND INTO FRI MORNING. THESE CONDITIONS MAY CONTINUE RIGHT
THROUGH FRI AND SCA MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED THROUGH MOST OF FRI.

LONG TERM...

SAT - MON...GALES POSSIBLE...XCP SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND SEAS IN
THE BAYS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CURTIS
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...



000
FXUS61 KGYX 201343
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
843 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE REGION TODAY...BEFORE EXITING
INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES FRIDAY. AN ARCTIC AIR MASS WITH COLDER
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE START OF THE WEEKEND. A
WARM UP FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK AS THE
MODELS DEVELOP A BROAD SOUTHERLY FLOW.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
9AM UPDATE... JUST FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES AS SHELTERED
MOUNTAIN VALLEY SAW TEMPERATURES STAY A BIT COLDER THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS. ALSO INCREASED THE WINDS OVER THE WATERS IN
ANTICIPATION OF STRENGTHENING COLD AIR ADVECTION TODAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY BUT WITH VERY LIMITED
MOISTURE. SCT SNW SHWRS ARE EXPECTED IN THE MTNS OTHERWISE DRY
DOWNSLOPING WNWLY WINDS WILL ALLOW PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. TEMPS WILL REMAIN COLD AND USED A BLEND OF
THE MODELS FOR MAX TEMPS.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
A MUCH COLDER ARCTIC AIR MASS ARRIVES LATER TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING WITH MORE SCT SNW SHWRS ACCOMPANYING THE COLD AIR BUT ONCE
AGAIN REMAINING IN THE MTNS WHILE STRONG DOWNSLOPING WINDS KEEP
CONDITIONS DRY ELSEWHERE. TEMPS WILL BECOME COLDER FRI WITH GUSTY
WNWLY WINDS. ONCE AGAIN A BLEND OF MODELS FOR TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE LONG WAVE PATTERN
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WE BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH THE
UPPER TROUGH AND CORE OF THE COLD AIR LIFTING OUT INTO THE
MARITIMES. WEAK RIDGING AND A WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR
MODERATING TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY. WARM AIR ADVECTION CLOUDS
AND SPOTTY LIGHT PRECIPITATION ARRIVE BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND
LINGERS SUNDAY. MILD BUT INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED EARLY NEXT WEEK
AHEAD OF AN EVOLVING UPPER TROUGH THAT EVENTUALLY ENCOMPASSES MUCH
OF THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CONUS. LOW PRESSURE AND A
TRAILING COLD FRONT CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY...WITH ANOTHER COLD
FRONT AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES TO FOLLOW FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH FRI.

LONG TERM...

SUN...SCT MVFR PSBL IN RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SCAS WILL REMAIN UP DUE TO GUSTY WINDS AND SEAS
TODAY AND INTO FRI MORNING. THESE CONDITIONS MAY CONTINUE RIGHT
THROUGH FRI AND SCA MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED THROUGH MOST OF FRI.

LONG TERM...

SAT - MON...GALES POSSIBLE...XCP SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND SEAS IN
THE BAYS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CURTIS
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...



000
FXUS61 KGYX 201343
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
843 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE REGION TODAY...BEFORE EXITING
INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES FRIDAY. AN ARCTIC AIR MASS WITH COLDER
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE START OF THE WEEKEND. A
WARM UP FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK AS THE
MODELS DEVELOP A BROAD SOUTHERLY FLOW.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
9AM UPDATE... JUST FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES AS SHELTERED
MOUNTAIN VALLEY SAW TEMPERATURES STAY A BIT COLDER THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS. ALSO INCREASED THE WINDS OVER THE WATERS IN
ANTICIPATION OF STRENGTHENING COLD AIR ADVECTION TODAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY BUT WITH VERY LIMITED
MOISTURE. SCT SNW SHWRS ARE EXPECTED IN THE MTNS OTHERWISE DRY
DOWNSLOPING WNWLY WINDS WILL ALLOW PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. TEMPS WILL REMAIN COLD AND USED A BLEND OF
THE MODELS FOR MAX TEMPS.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
A MUCH COLDER ARCTIC AIR MASS ARRIVES LATER TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING WITH MORE SCT SNW SHWRS ACCOMPANYING THE COLD AIR BUT ONCE
AGAIN REMAINING IN THE MTNS WHILE STRONG DOWNSLOPING WINDS KEEP
CONDITIONS DRY ELSEWHERE. TEMPS WILL BECOME COLDER FRI WITH GUSTY
WNWLY WINDS. ONCE AGAIN A BLEND OF MODELS FOR TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE LONG WAVE PATTERN
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WE BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH THE
UPPER TROUGH AND CORE OF THE COLD AIR LIFTING OUT INTO THE
MARITIMES. WEAK RIDGING AND A WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR
MODERATING TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY. WARM AIR ADVECTION CLOUDS
AND SPOTTY LIGHT PRECIPITATION ARRIVE BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND
LINGERS SUNDAY. MILD BUT INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED EARLY NEXT WEEK
AHEAD OF AN EVOLVING UPPER TROUGH THAT EVENTUALLY ENCOMPASSES MUCH
OF THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CONUS. LOW PRESSURE AND A
TRAILING COLD FRONT CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY...WITH ANOTHER COLD
FRONT AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES TO FOLLOW FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH FRI.

LONG TERM...

SUN...SCT MVFR PSBL IN RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SCAS WILL REMAIN UP DUE TO GUSTY WINDS AND SEAS
TODAY AND INTO FRI MORNING. THESE CONDITIONS MAY CONTINUE RIGHT
THROUGH FRI AND SCA MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED THROUGH MOST OF FRI.

LONG TERM...

SAT - MON...GALES POSSIBLE...XCP SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND SEAS IN
THE BAYS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CURTIS
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...



000
FXUS61 KGYX 201343
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
843 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE REGION TODAY...BEFORE EXITING
INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES FRIDAY. AN ARCTIC AIR MASS WITH COLDER
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE START OF THE WEEKEND. A
WARM UP FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK AS THE
MODELS DEVELOP A BROAD SOUTHERLY FLOW.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
9AM UPDATE... JUST FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES AS SHELTERED
MOUNTAIN VALLEY SAW TEMPERATURES STAY A BIT COLDER THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS. ALSO INCREASED THE WINDS OVER THE WATERS IN
ANTICIPATION OF STRENGTHENING COLD AIR ADVECTION TODAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY BUT WITH VERY LIMITED
MOISTURE. SCT SNW SHWRS ARE EXPECTED IN THE MTNS OTHERWISE DRY
DOWNSLOPING WNWLY WINDS WILL ALLOW PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. TEMPS WILL REMAIN COLD AND USED A BLEND OF
THE MODELS FOR MAX TEMPS.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
A MUCH COLDER ARCTIC AIR MASS ARRIVES LATER TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING WITH MORE SCT SNW SHWRS ACCOMPANYING THE COLD AIR BUT ONCE
AGAIN REMAINING IN THE MTNS WHILE STRONG DOWNSLOPING WINDS KEEP
CONDITIONS DRY ELSEWHERE. TEMPS WILL BECOME COLDER FRI WITH GUSTY
WNWLY WINDS. ONCE AGAIN A BLEND OF MODELS FOR TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE LONG WAVE PATTERN
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WE BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH THE
UPPER TROUGH AND CORE OF THE COLD AIR LIFTING OUT INTO THE
MARITIMES. WEAK RIDGING AND A WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR
MODERATING TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY. WARM AIR ADVECTION CLOUDS
AND SPOTTY LIGHT PRECIPITATION ARRIVE BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND
LINGERS SUNDAY. MILD BUT INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED EARLY NEXT WEEK
AHEAD OF AN EVOLVING UPPER TROUGH THAT EVENTUALLY ENCOMPASSES MUCH
OF THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CONUS. LOW PRESSURE AND A
TRAILING COLD FRONT CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY...WITH ANOTHER COLD
FRONT AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES TO FOLLOW FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH FRI.

LONG TERM...

SUN...SCT MVFR PSBL IN RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SCAS WILL REMAIN UP DUE TO GUSTY WINDS AND SEAS
TODAY AND INTO FRI MORNING. THESE CONDITIONS MAY CONTINUE RIGHT
THROUGH FRI AND SCA MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED THROUGH MOST OF FRI.

LONG TERM...

SAT - MON...GALES POSSIBLE...XCP SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND SEAS IN
THE BAYS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CURTIS
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...



000
FXUS61 KCAR 201121
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
621 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTH OF THE REGION THIS EVENING AND SEND
A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE
GULF OF MAINE THIS MORNING WILL MOVE INTO THE MARITIMES THIS
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE REGION FRIDAY AND
MOVE INTO THE ATLANTIC SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS WELL WEST
OF THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
621 AM EST UPDATE...NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF SNOW SHOWING UP A WEAK
SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPED IN THE GULF OF MAINE EARLY THIS MORNING.
IT IS LOOKING LESS LIKELY THAT THERE WILL BE MUCH SNOWFALL THIS
MORNING. IN FACT THE HRRR AND RUC NOW HAVE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
PRECIPITATION ALONG THE DOWN EAST COAST. A BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS
STILL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN WESTERN MAINE AS
LAPSE RATES STEEPEN AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT. MAIN UPDATE WAS
TO LOWER POPS ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING AND TO BUMP UP THE POPS
A BIT IN THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE CWA WHERE THERE ARE SOME
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS EARLY THIS MORNING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE NORTH SHORE OF LAKE HURON EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC TODAY. THE LOW WILL PASS
NORTH OF MAINE THIS EVENING AND INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF SAINT
LAWRENCE BY 12Z FRI. SOME OF THE ENERGY FROM THE MAIN LOW IS
TRANSFERRING TO THE MAINE COAST EARLY THIS MORNING. A VERY WEAK
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MAINE ALONG A STRONG
BAROCLINICZONE WILL QUICKLY SCOOT OUT INTO THE WESTERN MARITIMES
THIS AFTERNOON. ANY SNOW ACROSS COASTAL HANCOCK AND CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN WASHINGTON COUNTIES WILL COME TO AN END BY MID-LATE
MORNING. IT IS NOW LOOKING LESS IMPRESSIVE AND ANY ACCUMULATIONS
SHOULD MOSTLY BE AN INCH OR LESS. THERE IS STILL THE POSSIBILITY
OF UP TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW IN SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON COUNTY. IN THE
WAKE OF THE WAVE THERE WILL BE SOME CLEARING ACROSS THE DOWN EAST
REGION. IT WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE WITH A
COUPLE OF SNOW SHOWERS. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
PARENT LOW WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN MAINE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
SWEEP ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION THIS EVENING. THE FRONT
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR A HEAVIER SNOW SQUALL WHICH COULD LOCALLY PRODUCE POOR
VISIBILITY AND DROP AN INCH OF SNOW. STREAMERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
OFF THE ST LAWRENCE TONIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE...ESPECIALLY
DURING THE EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY,
BRINGING A FEW SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES TO NORTHERN MAINE, MAINLY
DURING THE MORNING HOURS. A VERY COLD DRY AIRMASS WILL FOLLOW AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO NEW ENGLAND. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOWER AND MID 20S NORTH TO THE LOWER 30S SOUTH. HOWEVER,
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL SHARPLY OVERNIGHT AS DECENT COLD AIR
ADVECTION SETS UP AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING HIGH. THE CENTER OF THE
HIGH WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH, WHICH MEANS WINDS WILL LIKELY STAY
UP, LIMITING THE AMOUNT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING. EVEN STILL, FRIDAY
NIGHT WILL BE COLD, WITH LOWS IN THE NORTH IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MAINE WILL GENERALLY BOTTOM OUT IN THE 10 TO
15 DEGREE RANGE, WITH THE COAST 15 TO 20.

FOR SATURDAY...THE HIGH SLIDES TO OUR SOUTH, RESULTING IN ZONAL FLOW
ACROSS THE REGION. WARM ADVECTION AROUND THE BACK OF THE HIGH WILL
ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES TO REACH A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THOSE ON
FRIDAY. THERE WILL BE SOME SNOW SHOWERS AROUND AS WELL, MAINLY FOR
THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION
WILL BE LESS THAN AN INCH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
OUTSIDE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY...THE BIG STORY FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR A BIG WARMUP FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. LOW PRESSURE
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN LIFT
NORTHWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
ALLOW A STREAM OF WARMER AIR TO MOVE INTO THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES, ALONG WITH A WIDE SWATH OF WARM ADVECTION PRECIPITATION.
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BROAD SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO MOVE
INTO OUR REGION SUNDAY NIGHT, STARTING OUT AS SNOW BUT CHANGING
OVER TO RAIN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. CAN`T TOTALLY RULE OUT SOME
MIXED PRECIPITATION DURING THE TRANSITION, BUT THERE`S TOO MUCH
UNCERTAINTY FOR THE DETAILS THIS FAR IN ADVANCE. REGARDLESS,
EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS ON MONDAY AS TEMPERATURES SOAR INTO
THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. WE`LL SEE SHOWERS CONTINUING RIGHT INTO
TUESDAY, WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN, EVEN
MONDAY NIGHT. BY THE TIME THE COLDER AIR ARRIVES, EXPECT MUCH OF
THE PRECIPITATION TO BE DONE, WITH JUST SOME WRAP AROUND SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER OUR NORTH AND WEST.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: ALL TAF SITES ARE VFR AS OF 6 AM...BUT WILL LOWER TO
MVFR AT TIMES THIS MORNING AT THE DOWN EAST TERMINALS. CEILINGS
SHOULD LOWER TO MVFR AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS BY THIS AFTERNOON
WITH BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE IN ANY HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS OF SQUALLS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.

SHORT TERM: MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE AT THE NORTHERN SITES
THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH CROSSES THE REGION.
HOWEVER, SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT FRIDAY
NIGHT WITH VFR TO PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. LOWER CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES RETURN FOR NORTHERN AREAS ON SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH MVFR CONDITIONS IN LIGHT SNOW. WE`LL SE A
RETURN TO VFR AT ALL SITES ON SUNDAY, BUT LOW PRESSURE MOVING
NORTHWARD WELL TO OUR WEST WILL BRING SNOW CHANGING OVER TO RAIN
SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN ON MONDAY. EXPECT PREVAILING
MVFR WITH IFR POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: THE SCA WAS EXTENDED THROUGH TONIGHT. A FEW GUSTS MAY
APPROACH 35 KNOTS LATE TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: THE SMALL CRAFT WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS WINDS AND WAVES WILL REMAIN ABOVE SCA
LEVELS DUE TO COLD AIR ADVECTION OVER THE RELATIVELY WARM WATERS.
IT LOOKS LIKE WINDS MAY APPROACH GALE CRITERIA, BUT WILL HOLD OFF
ON ANY GALE WATCHES AT THIS TIME AS IT LOOKS MARGINAL RIGHT NOW.
LATER SHIFTS MAY HAVE TO MAKE CHANGES TO THE CURRENT HEADLINES AS
WE DRAW NEARER TO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...THE KCBW (HODGDON, MAINE) RADAR WENT DOWN AROUND 0100
EST THIS MORNING. THERE IS NO ESTIMATED TIME FOR RETURN TO
SERVICE.


&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CB
SHORT TERM...HASTINGS
LONG TERM...HASTINGS
AVIATION...CB/HASTINGS
MARINE...CB/HASTINGS
EQUIPMENT...CB



    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities