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000
FXUS61 KGYX 230128 AAB
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
928 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER TROUGH AND MODERATE NW FLOW BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT WILL PROVIDE SOME LINGERING CLOUDS AND A POSSIBLE SHOWER
ACROSS THE FAVORABLE UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN TONIGHT.
COOL AND DRY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD AND REMAIN OVER
THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A
SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND EXPECTED AND COOL CLEAR NIGHTS THROUGH
AT LEAST MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
.UPDATE...
GUSTY WINDS ARE HELPING TO USHER IN THE BEGINNING OF FALL
TONIGHT...AND ARE STILL IN THE 15-20 MPH RANGE. THESE SHOULD DROP
OFF TO LESS THAN 10 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. COLD AIR STRATUS IS STILL
HANGING TOUGH OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND THIS DECK SHOULD PERSIST
OVERNIGHT WITH UPSLOPE WINDS AND TRAPPED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONTINUING TO INTERACT OVER THE TERRAIN. FOG AND EVEN FROST MAY
DEVELOP IN SHELTERED AREAS ONCE THE WINDS DECREASE
ENOUGH...ESPECIALLY OVER THE CT RIVER VALLEY AND POINTS SOUTH AND
AWAY FROM CLOUD COVER. A FEW LOCATIONS STILL CONSIDERED TO BE IN
THEIR GROWING SEASON... INCLUDING MERRIMACK COUNTY AND THE
FISHTAIL OF CUMBERLAND COUNTY MAY SEE FROST...HOWEVER...IT IS NOT
FORECAST FOR ENOUGH OF THE COUNTY TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES TUESDAY
MORNING...AND THIS MAY BRING A FEW CLOUDS TO THE AREA. UPSLOPE
MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS SHOULD HANG ONTO STRATOCU AT LEAST THROUGH THE
MORNING. OTHERWISE...NOT AS GUSTY AS TODAY WITH TEMPS MAINLY IN
THE 60S. CLEAR CALM AND CHILLY TUESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN. SCATTERED FROST POSSIBLE COASTAL ZONES WHERE THE SEASON
HAS NOT ENDED YET.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALREADY BE WELL ESTABLISHED BY THE BEGINNING
OF THE PERIOD AND WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN ANCHORED OVER NEW
ENGLAND THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF DRY...SUNNY CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY AND CLEAR SKIES
WITH STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING DURING THE NIGHTTIME PERIODS. THIS
MEANS THAT LATE NIGHT FOG WILL BE LIKELY OVER THE INTERIOR
VALLEYS EACH NIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE CT RIVER VALLEY.

MORE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE STARTS TO BUILD BY THE WEEKEND AND
WARMING TREND WITH TEMPERATURES HEADING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S IS
EXPECTED.  ALTHOUGH IT CURRENTLY APPEARS THAT THE EXTENDED FORECAST
LOOKS DRY AND PLEASANT...IF THERE ARE ANY NORTHERN STREAM IMPULSES
THAT CLIMB THE RIDGE...THEY COULD DRAG A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE REGION AS BOTH THE EURO AND GFS ARE HINTING AT FOR NEXT MONDAY.

EITHER WAY...THE WEATHER LOOKS GREAT FOR AT LEAST AN EXTENDED
STRETCH OF TIME.  HOWEVER...WE HAVE GOTTEN STUCK WITH LOW CLOUDS AND
DRIZZLE MANY TIMES BEFORE WHILE BEING UNDER HIGH PRESSURE...I`LL
HAVE TO PLAY THE ROLE OF A PESSIMIST FOR NOW DUE TO DEGREE OF
UNCERTAINTY AND WILL FOLLOW A BLEND OF MODEL SUITES.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. GUSTY
WINDS WILL ABATE THIS EVENING.

LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE REGION
DURING THE LONG TERM. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS...HOWEVER PATCHY DENSE LATE NIGHT FOG MAY ALLOW FOR ISOLD
LIFR CONDITIONS ACROSS SOME OF THE INTERIOR VALLEYS...ESPECIALLY AT
LEB AND HIE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SCA IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT FOR ALL WATERS WITH
GUSTY WINDS AND SEAS AOA 5 FT EXPECTED. CONDITIONS WILL ABATE LATE
TONIGHT AND TUE.

LONG TERM...WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HANES




000
FXUS61 KGYX 230128 AAB
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
928 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER TROUGH AND MODERATE NW FLOW BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT WILL PROVIDE SOME LINGERING CLOUDS AND A POSSIBLE SHOWER
ACROSS THE FAVORABLE UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN TONIGHT.
COOL AND DRY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD AND REMAIN OVER
THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A
SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND EXPECTED AND COOL CLEAR NIGHTS THROUGH
AT LEAST MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
.UPDATE...
GUSTY WINDS ARE HELPING TO USHER IN THE BEGINNING OF FALL
TONIGHT...AND ARE STILL IN THE 15-20 MPH RANGE. THESE SHOULD DROP
OFF TO LESS THAN 10 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. COLD AIR STRATUS IS STILL
HANGING TOUGH OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND THIS DECK SHOULD PERSIST
OVERNIGHT WITH UPSLOPE WINDS AND TRAPPED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONTINUING TO INTERACT OVER THE TERRAIN. FOG AND EVEN FROST MAY
DEVELOP IN SHELTERED AREAS ONCE THE WINDS DECREASE
ENOUGH...ESPECIALLY OVER THE CT RIVER VALLEY AND POINTS SOUTH AND
AWAY FROM CLOUD COVER. A FEW LOCATIONS STILL CONSIDERED TO BE IN
THEIR GROWING SEASON... INCLUDING MERRIMACK COUNTY AND THE
FISHTAIL OF CUMBERLAND COUNTY MAY SEE FROST...HOWEVER...IT IS NOT
FORECAST FOR ENOUGH OF THE COUNTY TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES TUESDAY
MORNING...AND THIS MAY BRING A FEW CLOUDS TO THE AREA. UPSLOPE
MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS SHOULD HANG ONTO STRATOCU AT LEAST THROUGH THE
MORNING. OTHERWISE...NOT AS GUSTY AS TODAY WITH TEMPS MAINLY IN
THE 60S. CLEAR CALM AND CHILLY TUESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN. SCATTERED FROST POSSIBLE COASTAL ZONES WHERE THE SEASON
HAS NOT ENDED YET.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALREADY BE WELL ESTABLISHED BY THE BEGINNING
OF THE PERIOD AND WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN ANCHORED OVER NEW
ENGLAND THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF DRY...SUNNY CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY AND CLEAR SKIES
WITH STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING DURING THE NIGHTTIME PERIODS. THIS
MEANS THAT LATE NIGHT FOG WILL BE LIKELY OVER THE INTERIOR
VALLEYS EACH NIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE CT RIVER VALLEY.

MORE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE STARTS TO BUILD BY THE WEEKEND AND
WARMING TREND WITH TEMPERATURES HEADING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S IS
EXPECTED.  ALTHOUGH IT CURRENTLY APPEARS THAT THE EXTENDED FORECAST
LOOKS DRY AND PLEASANT...IF THERE ARE ANY NORTHERN STREAM IMPULSES
THAT CLIMB THE RIDGE...THEY COULD DRAG A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE REGION AS BOTH THE EURO AND GFS ARE HINTING AT FOR NEXT MONDAY.

EITHER WAY...THE WEATHER LOOKS GREAT FOR AT LEAST AN EXTENDED
STRETCH OF TIME.  HOWEVER...WE HAVE GOTTEN STUCK WITH LOW CLOUDS AND
DRIZZLE MANY TIMES BEFORE WHILE BEING UNDER HIGH PRESSURE...I`LL
HAVE TO PLAY THE ROLE OF A PESSIMIST FOR NOW DUE TO DEGREE OF
UNCERTAINTY AND WILL FOLLOW A BLEND OF MODEL SUITES.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. GUSTY
WINDS WILL ABATE THIS EVENING.

LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE REGION
DURING THE LONG TERM. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS...HOWEVER PATCHY DENSE LATE NIGHT FOG MAY ALLOW FOR ISOLD
LIFR CONDITIONS ACROSS SOME OF THE INTERIOR VALLEYS...ESPECIALLY AT
LEB AND HIE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SCA IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT FOR ALL WATERS WITH
GUSTY WINDS AND SEAS AOA 5 FT EXPECTED. CONDITIONS WILL ABATE LATE
TONIGHT AND TUE.

LONG TERM...WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HANES



000
FXUS61 KGYX 222241 AAA
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
641 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER TROUGH AND MODERATE NW FLOW BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT WILL PROVIDE SOME LINGERING CLOUDS AND A POSSIBLE SHOWER
ACROSS THE FAVORABLE UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN TONIGHT.
COOL AND DRY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD AND REMAIN OVER
THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A
SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND EXPECTED AND COOL CLEAR NIGHTS THROUGH
AT LEAST MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
.UPDATE...
GUSTY WINDS DUE TO A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ARE MAKING FOR A
CHILLY EVENING AFTER A RELATIVELY WARM DAY. IN GENERAL GUSTS ARE
AROUND 20 AND 30 MPH. EXPECT THESE TO DWINDLE IN THE NEXT 3-5
HOURS. COLD AIR STRATUS IS STILL HANGING TOUGH OVER THE MOUNTAINS
AND THIS DECK SHOULD PERSIST OVERNIGHT WITH UPSLOPE WINDS AND
TRAPPED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUING TO INTERACT OVER THE
TERRAIN. MAY NEED TO ADJUST OVERNIGHT LOWS UP A BIT FROM CURRENT
FORECAST OF LOWER 30S AS GUIDANCE BECOMES AVAILABLE. OTHERWISE
FROST SHOULD DEVELOP IN AREAS STILL CONSIDERED TO BE IN THEIR
GROWING SEASON INCLUDING MERRIMACK COUNTY AND THE FISHTAIL OF
CUMBERLAND COUNTY. HOWEVER...FROST IS NOT FORECAST FOR ENOUGH OF
THE COUNTY TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY.

&&

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE ABATING BY MIDNIGHT. A LIGHT WIND
SHOULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT IN MANY PLACES DUE TO A PRETTY TIGHT
GRADIENT IN PLACE SO NOT TOO WORRIED ABOUT WIDESPREAD FROST
TONIGHT.

OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED AT MOST
LOCATIONS WHILE THE MOUNTAINS HANG ONTO STRATOCU DUE TO MOST LOW
LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW. SOME RIVER VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE VERY LATE
TONIGHT INTO SOME AREAS SUCH AS THE CT RIVER VALLEY WHERE THE
ATMOSPHERE CAN BRIEFLY DECOUPLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES TUESDAY
MORNING...AND THIS MAY BRING A FEW CLOUDS TO THE AREA. UPSLOPE
MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS SHOULD HANG ONTO STRATOCU AT LEAST THROUGH THE
MORNING. OTHERWISE...NOT AS GUSTY AS TODAY WITH TEMPS MAINLY IN
THE 60S. CLEAR CALM AND CHILLY TUESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN. SCATTERED FROST POSSIBLE COASTAL ZONES WHERE THE SEASON
HAS NOT ENDED YET.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALREADY BE WELL ESTABLISHED BY THE BEGINNING
OF THE PERIOD AND WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN ANCHORED OVER NEW
ENGLAND THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF DRY...SUNNY CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY AND CLEAR SKIES
WITH STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING DURING THE NIGHTTIME PERIODS. THIS
MEANS THAT LATE NIGHT FOG WILL BE LIKELY OVER THE INTERIOR
VALLEYS EACH NIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE CT RIVER VALLEY.

MORE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE STARTS TO BUILD BY THE WEEKEND AND
WARMING TREND WITH TEMPERATURES HEADING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S IS
EXPECTED.  ALTHOUGH IT CURRENTLY APPEARS THAT THE EXTENDED FORECAST
LOOKS DRY AND PLEASANT...IF THERE ARE ANY NORTHERN STREAM IMPULSES
THAT CLIMB THE RIDGE...THEY COULD DRAG A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE REGION AS BOTH THE EURO AND GFS ARE HINTING AT FOR NEXT MONDAY.

EITHER WAY...THE WEATHER LOOKS GREAT FOR AT LEAST AN EXTENDED
STRETCH OF TIME.  HOWEVER...WE HAVE GOTTEN STUCK WITH LOW CLOUDS AND
DRIZZLE MANY TIMES BEFORE WHILE BEING UNDER HIGH PRESSURE...I`LL
HAVE TO PLAY THE ROLE OF A PESSIMIST FOR NOW DUE TO DEGREE OF
UNCERTAINTY AND WILL FOLLOW A BLEND OF MODEL SUITES.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. GUSTY
WINDS WILL ABATE THIS EVENING.

LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE REGION
DURING THE LONG TERM. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS...HOWEVER PATCHY DENSE LATE NIGHT FOG MAY ALLOW FOR ISOLD
LIFR CONDITIONS ACROSS SOME OF THE INTERIOR VALLEYS...ESPECIALLY AT
LEB AND HIE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SCA IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT FOR ALL WATERS WITH
GUSTY WINDS AND SEAS AOA 5 FT EXPECTED. CONDITIONS WILL ABATE LATE
TONIGHT AND TUE.

LONG TERM...WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HANES



000
FXUS61 KGYX 222241 AAA
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
641 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER TROUGH AND MODERATE NW FLOW BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT WILL PROVIDE SOME LINGERING CLOUDS AND A POSSIBLE SHOWER
ACROSS THE FAVORABLE UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN TONIGHT.
COOL AND DRY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD AND REMAIN OVER
THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A
SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND EXPECTED AND COOL CLEAR NIGHTS THROUGH
AT LEAST MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
.UPDATE...
GUSTY WINDS DUE TO A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ARE MAKING FOR A
CHILLY EVENING AFTER A RELATIVELY WARM DAY. IN GENERAL GUSTS ARE
AROUND 20 AND 30 MPH. EXPECT THESE TO DWINDLE IN THE NEXT 3-5
HOURS. COLD AIR STRATUS IS STILL HANGING TOUGH OVER THE MOUNTAINS
AND THIS DECK SHOULD PERSIST OVERNIGHT WITH UPSLOPE WINDS AND
TRAPPED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUING TO INTERACT OVER THE
TERRAIN. MAY NEED TO ADJUST OVERNIGHT LOWS UP A BIT FROM CURRENT
FORECAST OF LOWER 30S AS GUIDANCE BECOMES AVAILABLE. OTHERWISE
FROST SHOULD DEVELOP IN AREAS STILL CONSIDERED TO BE IN THEIR
GROWING SEASON INCLUDING MERRIMACK COUNTY AND THE FISHTAIL OF
CUMBERLAND COUNTY. HOWEVER...FROST IS NOT FORECAST FOR ENOUGH OF
THE COUNTY TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY.

&&

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE ABATING BY MIDNIGHT. A LIGHT WIND
SHOULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT IN MANY PLACES DUE TO A PRETTY TIGHT
GRADIENT IN PLACE SO NOT TOO WORRIED ABOUT WIDESPREAD FROST
TONIGHT.

OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED AT MOST
LOCATIONS WHILE THE MOUNTAINS HANG ONTO STRATOCU DUE TO MOST LOW
LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW. SOME RIVER VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE VERY LATE
TONIGHT INTO SOME AREAS SUCH AS THE CT RIVER VALLEY WHERE THE
ATMOSPHERE CAN BRIEFLY DECOUPLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES TUESDAY
MORNING...AND THIS MAY BRING A FEW CLOUDS TO THE AREA. UPSLOPE
MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS SHOULD HANG ONTO STRATOCU AT LEAST THROUGH THE
MORNING. OTHERWISE...NOT AS GUSTY AS TODAY WITH TEMPS MAINLY IN
THE 60S. CLEAR CALM AND CHILLY TUESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN. SCATTERED FROST POSSIBLE COASTAL ZONES WHERE THE SEASON
HAS NOT ENDED YET.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALREADY BE WELL ESTABLISHED BY THE BEGINNING
OF THE PERIOD AND WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN ANCHORED OVER NEW
ENGLAND THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF DRY...SUNNY CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY AND CLEAR SKIES
WITH STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING DURING THE NIGHTTIME PERIODS. THIS
MEANS THAT LATE NIGHT FOG WILL BE LIKELY OVER THE INTERIOR
VALLEYS EACH NIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE CT RIVER VALLEY.

MORE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE STARTS TO BUILD BY THE WEEKEND AND
WARMING TREND WITH TEMPERATURES HEADING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S IS
EXPECTED.  ALTHOUGH IT CURRENTLY APPEARS THAT THE EXTENDED FORECAST
LOOKS DRY AND PLEASANT...IF THERE ARE ANY NORTHERN STREAM IMPULSES
THAT CLIMB THE RIDGE...THEY COULD DRAG A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE REGION AS BOTH THE EURO AND GFS ARE HINTING AT FOR NEXT MONDAY.

EITHER WAY...THE WEATHER LOOKS GREAT FOR AT LEAST AN EXTENDED
STRETCH OF TIME.  HOWEVER...WE HAVE GOTTEN STUCK WITH LOW CLOUDS AND
DRIZZLE MANY TIMES BEFORE WHILE BEING UNDER HIGH PRESSURE...I`LL
HAVE TO PLAY THE ROLE OF A PESSIMIST FOR NOW DUE TO DEGREE OF
UNCERTAINTY AND WILL FOLLOW A BLEND OF MODEL SUITES.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. GUSTY
WINDS WILL ABATE THIS EVENING.

LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE REGION
DURING THE LONG TERM. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS...HOWEVER PATCHY DENSE LATE NIGHT FOG MAY ALLOW FOR ISOLD
LIFR CONDITIONS ACROSS SOME OF THE INTERIOR VALLEYS...ESPECIALLY AT
LEB AND HIE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SCA IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT FOR ALL WATERS WITH
GUSTY WINDS AND SEAS AOA 5 FT EXPECTED. CONDITIONS WILL ABATE LATE
TONIGHT AND TUE.

LONG TERM...WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HANES



  [top]

000
FXUS61 KCAR 222141
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
541 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE REGION THIS EVENING. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS
ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
530 PM UPDATE...ADJUSTED THE SKY CONDITIONS TO FIT BETTER W/THE
LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED PARTIAL
ACROSS THE DOWNEAST AND COAST WHILE NORTHERN AREAS WERE OVERCAST
W/SOME SHOWERS APPROACHING FROM THE W. SHOWERS ARE IN ASSOCIATION
W/THE UPPER FRONT MOVING INTO THE REGION. PREVIOUS PACKAGE HAS THE
POPS FOR THIS AREA IN TACT PER THE LATEST RADAR IMAGERY.

BKN-OVC SKIES ACROSS THE N SHOULD DIMINISH TO SCT-BKN...WHILE
SKIES REMAIN MSLY CLR. WINDS... WHICH HAVE BEEN QUITE GUSTY THIS
AFTN...WILL REMAIN BREEZY INTO THIS EVE AS WINDS ALF REMAIN
STRONG...THEN SLOWLY DIMINISH OVRNGT... BUT NOT ENOUGH TO ALLOW
MUCH IN THE WAY OF RADIATIONAL COOLING EVEN IN WIND PROTECTED
VALLEYS. AFT NEAR SEASONAL OVRNGT LOWS... HI TEMPS TUE WILL BE
ABOUT 3 TO 5 DEG BLO AVG. SKIES WILL INITIALLY BEGIN MSLY
SUNNY...BUT THEN CLD UP SOMEWHAT ACROSS THE N BY AFTN...WITH ISOLD
TO SCT SHWRS OVR THIS PTN OF THE FA AS ANOTHER MID LVL VORT MAX
CROSSES EWRD FROM QB ERLY TUE AFTN. ONCE THIS FEATURES SLIDES E
ALG WITH THE UPPER TROF AXIS...SKIES SHOULD CLR LATER IN THE AFTN
ACROSS THE N AS MID LVL LAPSE RATES DIMINISH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT THE START OF THE SHORT TERM THERE WILL BE A TROUGH OF LOWER
PRESSURE EXTENDED INTO SOUTHEASTERN WASHINGTON COUNTY...A HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER WILL BE BUILDING ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
STATE. THE GFS/NAM/ECMWF/AND GEM ARE ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT. THE
UPPER TROUGH WILL BE CO-LOCATED WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS ERN
QUEBEC...THROUGH NEW BRUNSWICK...SOUTHWEST ACROSS SE WASHINGTON
COUNTY. BY WED MRNG THE TROUGH MOVES EAST TO CENTRAL NOVA
SCOTIA...THE HIGH CENTER BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA. THE HIGH WILL
REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

LOADED A BLEND OF THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF/GEM FOR WND/SKY/POP/HRLY
TEMP/DP MAX/MIN FOR TUES. MAX WED. USED ADJMEL FOR MIN WED. THE
BLENDED MIN WAS TO WARM. LOADED NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS IN THE COASTAL
WATER. ADDED 15 PERCENT TO WNDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND 25 PERCENT
OVER COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
OVERALL EXPECT A VERY PLEASANT STRETCH FOR THE END OF THIS WEEK INTO
NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR
THIS PERIOD WITH GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES NORTH AND PARTLY
CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES DOWNEAST. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SOME 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. A SLOW-MOVING BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT WILL TRY TO MOVE OUT OF QUEBEC/NEW BRUNSWICK SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY. THE GUIDANCE SHOWS SHOWERS WITH THIS FRONTAL
PASSAGE, BUT FEEL THIS IS OVERDONE, SO HAVE GONE WITH JUST SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR THIS TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MSLY VFR ALL TAF SITES THRU TUE WITH PERHAPS BRIEF
INTERVALS OF BKN-OVC MVFR SC DECK INTO ERLY THIS EVE AT KFVE.

SHORT TERM: MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR BGR AND BHB AT THE START OF THE PERIOD
AS A TROUGH MOVES THROUGH SE WASHINGTON COUNTY. BECOMING PC AFTER
MIDNIGHT. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITION WITH CLEAR TO PC SKIES
THROUGHOUT THE AREA. CLEAR SKY...LIGHT WINDS..WITH COOL NIGHT WILL
CAUSE MORNING FOG TO DEVELOP PARTICULARLY IN AND AROUND BODIES OF
WATER. ANY MORNING FOG WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WE BELIEVE WV HTS HAVE NEARLY MAXED OUT OVR OUR WATERS
WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE MAIN PULSE OF OPEN ATLC SWELLS THIS MID
AFTN AS WSW WIND SPEEDS REACH NEAR SCA CRITERIA. WILL CONT SCA TIL
12Z TUE AS EARLIER PLANNED FOR NOW...AND WILL WATCH HOW QUICKLY WV
HTS AND WINDS DIMINISH OVRNGT...SPCLY LATE.

WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REACH BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS BY MID TUE MORN
AND THEN CONT TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE THE REST OF THE DAY TUE. KEPT CLOSE
WITH WW3 WV GUIDANCE...WHICH DESPITE ITS SLOW START THIS MORN...APPEARS
VERY CLOSE TO ACTUAL OBSVD WV HTS THIS AFTN.

SHORT TERM: WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT/VJN
SHORT TERM...NORTON
LONG TERM...HASTINGS
AVIATION...HEWITT/VJN/NORTON
MARINE...HEWITT/VJN/NORTON







000
FXUS61 KCAR 222141
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
541 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE REGION THIS EVENING. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS
ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
530 PM UPDATE...ADJUSTED THE SKY CONDITIONS TO FIT BETTER W/THE
LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED PARTIAL
ACROSS THE DOWNEAST AND COAST WHILE NORTHERN AREAS WERE OVERCAST
W/SOME SHOWERS APPROACHING FROM THE W. SHOWERS ARE IN ASSOCIATION
W/THE UPPER FRONT MOVING INTO THE REGION. PREVIOUS PACKAGE HAS THE
POPS FOR THIS AREA IN TACT PER THE LATEST RADAR IMAGERY.

BKN-OVC SKIES ACROSS THE N SHOULD DIMINISH TO SCT-BKN...WHILE
SKIES REMAIN MSLY CLR. WINDS... WHICH HAVE BEEN QUITE GUSTY THIS
AFTN...WILL REMAIN BREEZY INTO THIS EVE AS WINDS ALF REMAIN
STRONG...THEN SLOWLY DIMINISH OVRNGT... BUT NOT ENOUGH TO ALLOW
MUCH IN THE WAY OF RADIATIONAL COOLING EVEN IN WIND PROTECTED
VALLEYS. AFT NEAR SEASONAL OVRNGT LOWS... HI TEMPS TUE WILL BE
ABOUT 3 TO 5 DEG BLO AVG. SKIES WILL INITIALLY BEGIN MSLY
SUNNY...BUT THEN CLD UP SOMEWHAT ACROSS THE N BY AFTN...WITH ISOLD
TO SCT SHWRS OVR THIS PTN OF THE FA AS ANOTHER MID LVL VORT MAX
CROSSES EWRD FROM QB ERLY TUE AFTN. ONCE THIS FEATURES SLIDES E
ALG WITH THE UPPER TROF AXIS...SKIES SHOULD CLR LATER IN THE AFTN
ACROSS THE N AS MID LVL LAPSE RATES DIMINISH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT THE START OF THE SHORT TERM THERE WILL BE A TROUGH OF LOWER
PRESSURE EXTENDED INTO SOUTHEASTERN WASHINGTON COUNTY...A HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER WILL BE BUILDING ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
STATE. THE GFS/NAM/ECMWF/AND GEM ARE ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT. THE
UPPER TROUGH WILL BE CO-LOCATED WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS ERN
QUEBEC...THROUGH NEW BRUNSWICK...SOUTHWEST ACROSS SE WASHINGTON
COUNTY. BY WED MRNG THE TROUGH MOVES EAST TO CENTRAL NOVA
SCOTIA...THE HIGH CENTER BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA. THE HIGH WILL
REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

LOADED A BLEND OF THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF/GEM FOR WND/SKY/POP/HRLY
TEMP/DP MAX/MIN FOR TUES. MAX WED. USED ADJMEL FOR MIN WED. THE
BLENDED MIN WAS TO WARM. LOADED NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS IN THE COASTAL
WATER. ADDED 15 PERCENT TO WNDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND 25 PERCENT
OVER COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
OVERALL EXPECT A VERY PLEASANT STRETCH FOR THE END OF THIS WEEK INTO
NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR
THIS PERIOD WITH GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES NORTH AND PARTLY
CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES DOWNEAST. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SOME 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. A SLOW-MOVING BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT WILL TRY TO MOVE OUT OF QUEBEC/NEW BRUNSWICK SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY. THE GUIDANCE SHOWS SHOWERS WITH THIS FRONTAL
PASSAGE, BUT FEEL THIS IS OVERDONE, SO HAVE GONE WITH JUST SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR THIS TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MSLY VFR ALL TAF SITES THRU TUE WITH PERHAPS BRIEF
INTERVALS OF BKN-OVC MVFR SC DECK INTO ERLY THIS EVE AT KFVE.

SHORT TERM: MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR BGR AND BHB AT THE START OF THE PERIOD
AS A TROUGH MOVES THROUGH SE WASHINGTON COUNTY. BECOMING PC AFTER
MIDNIGHT. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITION WITH CLEAR TO PC SKIES
THROUGHOUT THE AREA. CLEAR SKY...LIGHT WINDS..WITH COOL NIGHT WILL
CAUSE MORNING FOG TO DEVELOP PARTICULARLY IN AND AROUND BODIES OF
WATER. ANY MORNING FOG WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WE BELIEVE WV HTS HAVE NEARLY MAXED OUT OVR OUR WATERS
WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE MAIN PULSE OF OPEN ATLC SWELLS THIS MID
AFTN AS WSW WIND SPEEDS REACH NEAR SCA CRITERIA. WILL CONT SCA TIL
12Z TUE AS EARLIER PLANNED FOR NOW...AND WILL WATCH HOW QUICKLY WV
HTS AND WINDS DIMINISH OVRNGT...SPCLY LATE.

WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REACH BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS BY MID TUE MORN
AND THEN CONT TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE THE REST OF THE DAY TUE. KEPT CLOSE
WITH WW3 WV GUIDANCE...WHICH DESPITE ITS SLOW START THIS MORN...APPEARS
VERY CLOSE TO ACTUAL OBSVD WV HTS THIS AFTN.

SHORT TERM: WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT/VJN
SHORT TERM...NORTON
LONG TERM...HASTINGS
AVIATION...HEWITT/VJN/NORTON
MARINE...HEWITT/VJN/NORTON






000
FXUS61 KCAR 221955
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
355 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONSOLIDATE IN THE MARITIMES AND MOVE AWAY TO
THE NORTHEAST TODAY WHILE PULLING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
THEN BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THERE IS STILL A ISOLD TO SCT SHWRS ACROSS THE N HLF OF THE FA
LATE THIS AFTN AS A MID LVL VORT MAX CROSSES EWRD WITH A S/WV TROF
AXIS ACROSS THIS PTN OF THE FA. AFTWRDS...BKN-OVC SC ACROSS THE N
SHOULD DIMINISH TO SCT-BKN...WHILE SKIES REMAIN MSLY CLR. WINDS...
WHICH HAVE BEEN QUITE GUSTY THIS AFTN...WILL REMAIN BREEZY INTO
THIS EVE AS WINDS ALF REMAIN STRONG...THEN SLOWLY DIMINISH OVRNGT...
BUT NOT ENOUGH TO ALLOW MUCH IN THE WAY OF RADIATIONAL COOLING
EVEN IN WIND PROTECTED VALLEYS. AFT NEAR SEASONAL OVRNGT LOWS...
HI TEMPS TUE WILL BE ABOUT 3 TO 5 DEG BLO AVG. SKIES WILL
INITIALLY BEGIN MSLY SUNNY...BUT THEN CLD UP SOMEWHAT ACROSS
THE N BY AFTN...WITH ISOLD TO SCT SHWRS OVR THIS PTN OF THE FA AS
ANOTHER MID LVL VORT MAX CROSSES EWRD FROM QB ERLY TUE AFTN. ONCE
THIS FEATURES SLIDES E ALG WITH THE UPPER TROF AXIS...SKIES SHOULD
CLR LATER IN THE AFTN ACROSS THE N AS MID LVL LAPSE RATES
DIMINISH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT THE START OF THE SHORT TERM THERE WILL BE A TROUGH OF LOWER
PRESSURE EXTENDED INTO SOUTHEASTERN WASHINGTON COUNTY...A HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER WILL BE BUILDING ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
STATE. THE GFS/NAM/ECMWF/AND GEM ARE ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT. THE
UPPER TROUGH WILL BE CO-LOCATED WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS ERN
QUEBEC...THROUGH NEW BRUNSWICK...SOUTHWEST ACROSS SE WASHINGTON
COUNTY. BY WED MRNG THE TROUGH MOVES EAST TO CENTRAL NOVA
SCOTIA...THE HIGH CENTER BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA. THE HIGH WILL
REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

LOADED A BLEND OF THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF/GEM FOR WND/SKY/POP/HRLY
TEMP/DP MAX/MIN FOR TUES. MAX WED. USED ADJMEL FOR MIN WED. THE
BLENDED MIN WAS TO WARM. LOADED NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS IN THE COASTAL
WATER. ADDED 15 PERCENT TO WNDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND 25 PERCENT
OVER COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
OVERALL EXPECT A VERY PLEASANT STRETCH FOR THE END OF THIS WEEK INTO
NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR
THIS PERIOD WITH GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES NORTH AND PARTLY
CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES DOWNEAST. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SOME 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. A SLOW-MOVING BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT WILL TRY TO MOVE OUT OF QUEBEC/NEW BRUNSWICK SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY. THE GUIDANCE SHOWS SHOWERS WITH THIS FRONTAL
PASSAGE, BUT FEEL THIS IS OVERDONE, SO HAVE GONE WITH JUST SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR THIS TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MSLY VFR ALL TAF SITES THRU TUE WITH PERHAPS BRIEF
INTERVALS OF BKN-OVC MVFR SC DECK INTO ERLY THIS EVE AT KFVE.

SHORT TERM: MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR BGR AND BHB AT THE START OF THE PERIOD
AS A TROUGH MOVES THROUGH SE WASHINGTON COUNTY. BECOMING PC AFTER
MIDNIGHT. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITION WITH CLEAR TO PC SKIES
THROUGHOUT THE AREA. CLEAR SKY...LIGHT WINDS..WITH COOL NIGHT WILL
CAUSE MORNING FOG TO DEVELOP PARTICULARLY IN AND AROUND BODIES OF
WATER. ANY MORNING FOG WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WE BELIEVE WV HTS HAVE NEARLY MAXED OUT OVR OUR WATERS
WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE MAIN PULSE OF OPEN ATLC SWELLS THIS MID
AFTN AS WSW WIND SPEEDS REACH NEAR SCA CRITERIA. WILL CONT SCA TIL
12Z TUE AS EARLIER PLANNED FOR NOW...AND WILL WATCH HOW QUICKLY WV
HTS AND WINDS DIMINISH OVRNGT...SPCLY LATE.

WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REACH BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS BY MID TUE MORN
AND THEN CONT TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE THE REST OF THE DAY TUE. KEPT CLOSE
WITH WW3 WV GUIDANCE...WHICH DESPITE ITS SLOW START THIS MORN...APPEARS
VERY CLOSE TO ACTUAL OBSVD WV HTS THIS AFTN.

SHORT TERM: WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...NORTON
LONG TERM...HASTINGS
AVIATION...VJN/NORTON
MARINE...VJN/NORTON











000
FXUS61 KCAR 221955
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
355 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONSOLIDATE IN THE MARITIMES AND MOVE AWAY TO
THE NORTHEAST TODAY WHILE PULLING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
THEN BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THERE IS STILL A ISOLD TO SCT SHWRS ACROSS THE N HLF OF THE FA
LATE THIS AFTN AS A MID LVL VORT MAX CROSSES EWRD WITH A S/WV TROF
AXIS ACROSS THIS PTN OF THE FA. AFTWRDS...BKN-OVC SC ACROSS THE N
SHOULD DIMINISH TO SCT-BKN...WHILE SKIES REMAIN MSLY CLR. WINDS...
WHICH HAVE BEEN QUITE GUSTY THIS AFTN...WILL REMAIN BREEZY INTO
THIS EVE AS WINDS ALF REMAIN STRONG...THEN SLOWLY DIMINISH OVRNGT...
BUT NOT ENOUGH TO ALLOW MUCH IN THE WAY OF RADIATIONAL COOLING
EVEN IN WIND PROTECTED VALLEYS. AFT NEAR SEASONAL OVRNGT LOWS...
HI TEMPS TUE WILL BE ABOUT 3 TO 5 DEG BLO AVG. SKIES WILL
INITIALLY BEGIN MSLY SUNNY...BUT THEN CLD UP SOMEWHAT ACROSS
THE N BY AFTN...WITH ISOLD TO SCT SHWRS OVR THIS PTN OF THE FA AS
ANOTHER MID LVL VORT MAX CROSSES EWRD FROM QB ERLY TUE AFTN. ONCE
THIS FEATURES SLIDES E ALG WITH THE UPPER TROF AXIS...SKIES SHOULD
CLR LATER IN THE AFTN ACROSS THE N AS MID LVL LAPSE RATES
DIMINISH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT THE START OF THE SHORT TERM THERE WILL BE A TROUGH OF LOWER
PRESSURE EXTENDED INTO SOUTHEASTERN WASHINGTON COUNTY...A HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER WILL BE BUILDING ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
STATE. THE GFS/NAM/ECMWF/AND GEM ARE ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT. THE
UPPER TROUGH WILL BE CO-LOCATED WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS ERN
QUEBEC...THROUGH NEW BRUNSWICK...SOUTHWEST ACROSS SE WASHINGTON
COUNTY. BY WED MRNG THE TROUGH MOVES EAST TO CENTRAL NOVA
SCOTIA...THE HIGH CENTER BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA. THE HIGH WILL
REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

LOADED A BLEND OF THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF/GEM FOR WND/SKY/POP/HRLY
TEMP/DP MAX/MIN FOR TUES. MAX WED. USED ADJMEL FOR MIN WED. THE
BLENDED MIN WAS TO WARM. LOADED NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS IN THE COASTAL
WATER. ADDED 15 PERCENT TO WNDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND 25 PERCENT
OVER COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
OVERALL EXPECT A VERY PLEASANT STRETCH FOR THE END OF THIS WEEK INTO
NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR
THIS PERIOD WITH GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES NORTH AND PARTLY
CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES DOWNEAST. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SOME 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. A SLOW-MOVING BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT WILL TRY TO MOVE OUT OF QUEBEC/NEW BRUNSWICK SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY. THE GUIDANCE SHOWS SHOWERS WITH THIS FRONTAL
PASSAGE, BUT FEEL THIS IS OVERDONE, SO HAVE GONE WITH JUST SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR THIS TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MSLY VFR ALL TAF SITES THRU TUE WITH PERHAPS BRIEF
INTERVALS OF BKN-OVC MVFR SC DECK INTO ERLY THIS EVE AT KFVE.

SHORT TERM: MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR BGR AND BHB AT THE START OF THE PERIOD
AS A TROUGH MOVES THROUGH SE WASHINGTON COUNTY. BECOMING PC AFTER
MIDNIGHT. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITION WITH CLEAR TO PC SKIES
THROUGHOUT THE AREA. CLEAR SKY...LIGHT WINDS..WITH COOL NIGHT WILL
CAUSE MORNING FOG TO DEVELOP PARTICULARLY IN AND AROUND BODIES OF
WATER. ANY MORNING FOG WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WE BELIEVE WV HTS HAVE NEARLY MAXED OUT OVR OUR WATERS
WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE MAIN PULSE OF OPEN ATLC SWELLS THIS MID
AFTN AS WSW WIND SPEEDS REACH NEAR SCA CRITERIA. WILL CONT SCA TIL
12Z TUE AS EARLIER PLANNED FOR NOW...AND WILL WATCH HOW QUICKLY WV
HTS AND WINDS DIMINISH OVRNGT...SPCLY LATE.

WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REACH BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS BY MID TUE MORN
AND THEN CONT TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE THE REST OF THE DAY TUE. KEPT CLOSE
WITH WW3 WV GUIDANCE...WHICH DESPITE ITS SLOW START THIS MORN...APPEARS
VERY CLOSE TO ACTUAL OBSVD WV HTS THIS AFTN.

SHORT TERM: WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...NORTON
LONG TERM...HASTINGS
AVIATION...VJN/NORTON
MARINE...VJN/NORTON










000
FXUS61 KGYX 221831
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
231 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER TROUGH AND MODERATE NW FLOW BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT WILL PROVIDE SOME LINGERING CLOUDS AND A POSSIBLE SHOWER
ACROSS THE FAVORABLE UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN TONIGHT.
COOL AND DRY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD AND REMAIN OVER
THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A
SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND EXPECTED AND COOL CLEAR NIGHTS THROUGH
AT LEAST MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE ABATING BY MIDNIGHT. A LIGHT WIND
SHOULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT IN MANY PLACES DUE TO A PRETTY TIGHT
GRADIENT IN PLACE SO NOT TOO WORRIED ABOUT WIDESPREAD FROST
TONIGHT.

OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED AT MOST
LOCATIONS WHILE THE MOUNTAINS HANG ONTO STRATOCU DUE TO MOST LOW
LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW. SOME RIVER VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE VERY LATE
TONIGHT INTO SOME AREAS SUCH AS THE CT RIVER VALLEY WHERE THE
ATMOSPHERE CAN BRIEFLY DECOUPLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES TUESDAY
MORNING...AND THIS MAY BRING A FEW CLOUDS TO THE AREA. UPSLOPE
MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS SHOULD HANG ONTO STRATOCU AT LEAST THROUGH THE
MORNING. OTHERWISE...NOT AS GUSTY AS TODAY WITH TEMPS MAINLY IN
THE 60S. CLEAR CALM AND CHILLY TUESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN. SCATTERED FROST POSSIBLE COASTAL ZONES WHERE THE SEASON
HAS NOT ENDED YET.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALREADY BE WELL ESTABLISHED BY THE BEGINNING
OF THE PERIOD AND WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN ANCHORED OVER NEW
ENGLAND THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF DRY...SUNNY CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY AND CLEAR SKIES
WITH STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING DURING THE NIGHTTIME PERIODS. THIS
MEANS THAT LATE NIGHT FOG WILL BE LIKELY OVER THE INTERIOR
VALLEYS EACH NIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE CT RIVER VALLEY.

MORE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE STARTS TO BUILD BY THE WEEKEND AND
WARMING TREND WITH TEMPERATURES HEADING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S IS
EXPECTED.  ALTHOUGH IT CURRENTLY APPEARS THAT THE EXTENDED FORECAST
LOOKS DRY AND PLEASANT...IF THERE ARE ANY NORTHERN STREAM IMPULSES
THAT CLIMB THE RIDGE...THEY COULD DRAG A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE REGION AS BOTH THE EURO AND GFS ARE HINTING AT FOR NEXT MONDAY.

EITHER WAY...THE WEATHER LOOKS GREAT FOR AT LEAST AN EXTENDED
STRETCH OF TIME.  HOWEVER...WE HAVE GOTTEN STUCK WITH LOW CLOUDS AND
DRIZZLE MANY TIMES BEFORE WHILE BEING UNDER HIGH PRESSURE...I`LL
HAVE TO PLAY THE ROLE OF A PESSIMIST FOR NOW DUE TO DEGREE OF
UNCERTAINTY AND WILL FOLLOW A BLEND OF MODEL SUITES.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. GUSTY
WINDS WILL ABATE THIS EVENING.

LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE REGION
DURING THE LONG TERM. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS...HOWEVER PATCHY DENSE LATE NIGHT FOG MAY ALLOW FOR ISOLD
LIFR CONDITIONS ACROSS SOME OF THE INTERIOR VALLEYS...ESPECIALLY AT
LEB AND HIE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SCA IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT FOR ALL WATERS WITH
GUSTY WINDS AND SEAS AOA 5 FT EXPECTED. CONDITIONS WILL ABATE LATE
TONIGHT AND TUE.

LONG TERM...WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...EKSTER
SHORT TERM...EKSTER
LONG TERM...KISTNER




000
FXUS61 KGYX 221831
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
231 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER TROUGH AND MODERATE NW FLOW BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT WILL PROVIDE SOME LINGERING CLOUDS AND A POSSIBLE SHOWER
ACROSS THE FAVORABLE UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN TONIGHT.
COOL AND DRY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD AND REMAIN OVER
THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A
SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND EXPECTED AND COOL CLEAR NIGHTS THROUGH
AT LEAST MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE ABATING BY MIDNIGHT. A LIGHT WIND
SHOULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT IN MANY PLACES DUE TO A PRETTY TIGHT
GRADIENT IN PLACE SO NOT TOO WORRIED ABOUT WIDESPREAD FROST
TONIGHT.

OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED AT MOST
LOCATIONS WHILE THE MOUNTAINS HANG ONTO STRATOCU DUE TO MOST LOW
LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW. SOME RIVER VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE VERY LATE
TONIGHT INTO SOME AREAS SUCH AS THE CT RIVER VALLEY WHERE THE
ATMOSPHERE CAN BRIEFLY DECOUPLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES TUESDAY
MORNING...AND THIS MAY BRING A FEW CLOUDS TO THE AREA. UPSLOPE
MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS SHOULD HANG ONTO STRATOCU AT LEAST THROUGH THE
MORNING. OTHERWISE...NOT AS GUSTY AS TODAY WITH TEMPS MAINLY IN
THE 60S. CLEAR CALM AND CHILLY TUESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN. SCATTERED FROST POSSIBLE COASTAL ZONES WHERE THE SEASON
HAS NOT ENDED YET.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALREADY BE WELL ESTABLISHED BY THE BEGINNING
OF THE PERIOD AND WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN ANCHORED OVER NEW
ENGLAND THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF DRY...SUNNY CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY AND CLEAR SKIES
WITH STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING DURING THE NIGHTTIME PERIODS. THIS
MEANS THAT LATE NIGHT FOG WILL BE LIKELY OVER THE INTERIOR
VALLEYS EACH NIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE CT RIVER VALLEY.

MORE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE STARTS TO BUILD BY THE WEEKEND AND
WARMING TREND WITH TEMPERATURES HEADING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S IS
EXPECTED.  ALTHOUGH IT CURRENTLY APPEARS THAT THE EXTENDED FORECAST
LOOKS DRY AND PLEASANT...IF THERE ARE ANY NORTHERN STREAM IMPULSES
THAT CLIMB THE RIDGE...THEY COULD DRAG A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE REGION AS BOTH THE EURO AND GFS ARE HINTING AT FOR NEXT MONDAY.

EITHER WAY...THE WEATHER LOOKS GREAT FOR AT LEAST AN EXTENDED
STRETCH OF TIME.  HOWEVER...WE HAVE GOTTEN STUCK WITH LOW CLOUDS AND
DRIZZLE MANY TIMES BEFORE WHILE BEING UNDER HIGH PRESSURE...I`LL
HAVE TO PLAY THE ROLE OF A PESSIMIST FOR NOW DUE TO DEGREE OF
UNCERTAINTY AND WILL FOLLOW A BLEND OF MODEL SUITES.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. GUSTY
WINDS WILL ABATE THIS EVENING.

LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE REGION
DURING THE LONG TERM. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS...HOWEVER PATCHY DENSE LATE NIGHT FOG MAY ALLOW FOR ISOLD
LIFR CONDITIONS ACROSS SOME OF THE INTERIOR VALLEYS...ESPECIALLY AT
LEB AND HIE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SCA IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT FOR ALL WATERS WITH
GUSTY WINDS AND SEAS AOA 5 FT EXPECTED. CONDITIONS WILL ABATE LATE
TONIGHT AND TUE.

LONG TERM...WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...EKSTER
SHORT TERM...EKSTER
LONG TERM...KISTNER



000
FXUS61 KCAR 221600
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1200 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONSOLIDATE IN THE MARITIMES AND MOVE AWAY TO
THE NORTHEAST TODAY WHILE PULLING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
THEN BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1140 AM UPDATE: LATEST RADAR REF IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE FIRST AREA
OF SHWRS HAS MOVED E INTO NB PROV. OTHER...MORE ISOLD TO SCT SHWRS
HAVE FORMED JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS ERN PTNS OF THE FA
AND OTHER ISOLD TO SCT SHWRS MAY FORM LATER THIS AFTN WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE UPPER TROF DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTN HRS.
SUBSEQUENTLY...WE KEPT A MENTION OF ISOLD SHWRS S AND SCT SHWRS
N FOR THE REST OF THE AFTN. TEMPS HAVE BEEN DIFFICULT TO KEEP UP
WITH...SPCLY OVR THE NE WHERE THE DELAY OF THE COLD FRONT HAS
ALLOWED EVEN NERN ME LCTNS TO REACH 70 DEG.

ORGNL DISC: A BAND OF RAIN IN WESTERN AREAS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH EASTERN AREAS DURING THE MID MORNING HOURS TODAY. THIS
AFTERNOON WILL THEN BE BREEZY WITH ONLY SPOTTY SHOWERS ACROSS THE
NORTH AND DRYING DOWNEAST. THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY WAS LIFTED AS A
SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZE IS PICKING UP AND CLEARING THE FOG.

THE SUBTROPICAL LOW TO OUR EAST WILL QUICKLY LIFT NORTHEAST AND
AWAY EARLY THIS MORNING. LOW PRESSURE IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY
WILL LIFT NORTH TODAY PULLING A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA. HUMID
AIR HAS RESULTED IN SOME DENSE FOG ACROSS EASTERN AREAS EARLY
THIS MORNING. FOG IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE LATER THIS MORNING AS
WINDS INCREASE BEHIND DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE. A BAND OF SHOWERS
WILL CROSS THE NORTH AROUND MID MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE MIDDAY WILL THEN BE WINDY AND MILD
BEHIND THE FRONT. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL THEN FILTER INTO THE
AREA LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
OVER THE NORTH AND MOSTLY SUNNY DOWNEAST THIS AFTERNOON. TONIGHT
WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY, BREEZY AND CHILLY AS THE GRADIENT BETWEEN
LOW PRESSURE WELL TO THE NORTHEAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION CONTINUES TO PUSH COOL AIR INTO THE AREA.
SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR DOWNEAST. SOME MOISTURE POOLED IN THE
UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING PARTIAL CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE NORTH.&&

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY WITH PARTLY CLOUDY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS...WITH PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
DOWNEAST. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH PARTLY CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES NORTH AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES DOWNEAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
AT SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL LEVELS TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY WITH GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES NORTH AND PARTLY
CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES DOWNEAST. A COLD FRONT COULD BRING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL IMPROVE TO
MVFR LATE THIS MORNING THEN VFR THIS AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT. GUSTY WINDS TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH COLD
ADVECTION MAY RESULT IN TURBULENCE.

SHORT TERM: OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
NORTH AND MOUNTAINS TUESDAY. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: FOG WILL DISSIPATE EARLY THIS MORNING AS WINDS QUICKLY
INCREASE BEHIND DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE. AN SCA WILL BE UP TODAY
INTO TONIGHT FOR WINDS GUSTING OVER 25 KT AND SEAS OVER 5 FT.

SHORT TERM: SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS COULD PERSIST EARLY
TUESDAY. CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...NORCROSS
LONG TERM...NORCROSS
AVIATION...VJN/NORCROSS
MARINE...VJN/NORCROSS









000
FXUS61 KGYX 221546
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1148 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE COAST THIS MORNING. AN UPPER TROUGH
WILL PROVIDE SOME LINGERING CLOUDS TODAY AS WELL AS SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A
SHOT OF COOLER AIR FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THIS RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK
AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND
EXPECTED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1145 AM UPDATE...A FEW MINOR CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST BASED ON
LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONAL DATA. COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY IN THE
PROCESS OF SWEEPING OFFSHORE. GUSTY NWLY WINDS WILL FOLLOW IN ITS
WAKE.

9 AM UPDATE...HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST A LITTLE BIT TO TAKE INTO
ACCOUNT LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONAL DATA. COLD FRONT NOW PUSHING
ACROSS MAINE WITH A LINE OF SHOWERS. AFTER FROPA...WE EXPECT SUNNY
SKIES EXCEPT IN THE MOUNTAINS WHERE MOIST UPSLOPE WILL KEEP THINGS
CLOUDY.

550 AM...I DROPPED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE AREA AS
VISIBILITIES CONTINUE TO IMPROVE. OTHERWISE...1ST PERIOD GRIDS
WERE ADJUSTED BASED ON MESONET AND RADAR TRENDS.

PREV DISC...
AT 06Z...A 997 MILLIBAR LOW WAS CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST QUEBEC
WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT THROUGH WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND A
SECONDARY FRONT THROUGH EASTERN NEW YORK STATE. NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR MOSAIC SHOWED A BAND OF SHOWERS ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE FRONT
AND SHOWERS SHOULD CLEAR THE COAST THIS MORNING WITH GUSTY
WESTERLY FLOW IN ITS WAKE. INSTABILITY WITH UPPER TROUGH SHOULD
PROVIDE A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDS TODAY WITH ANY SHOWERS CONFINED TO
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. COOLING COLUMN SPELLS A RAIN/SNOW MIX OR WET
SNOW FOR THE HIGHEST TERRAIN STARTING LATE TODAY. HIGHS RANGE FROM
NEAR 60 IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS TO AROUND 70F AT THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY BUILD EAST TONIGHT WITH THE
LIGHT DOWNSLOPING WINDS CONTINUING...SO CLOUDS WILL LINGER IN THE
MOUNTAINS BUT SKIES SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR ELSEWHERE. MUCH
COOLER TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 30S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND IN
THE 40S ELSEWHERE.

ON TUESDAY...A WEAK FRONT AND REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL AIR SPELLS
A FEW CLOUDS MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN ALONG WITH WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS. HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 60S...WITH A FEW
50S ACROSS MOUNTAIN SECTIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE
PERIOD AND FULLY UNDER CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
A PROLONGED PERIOD OF DRY...SUNNY CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY AND
CLEAR SKIES DURING THE NIGHTTIME PERIODS. LATE NIGHT FOG WILL BE
LIKELY OVER THE INTERIOR VALLEYS EACH NIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
CT RIVER VALLEY.

THERE WILL ALSO BE A MODERATION TREND WITH TEMPERATURES HEADING
INTO THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND. EXPECT WIDESPREAD 70S DURING THE DAY
BY THE END OF THE WORKWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... VFR THROUGHOUT. WEST WINDS
WILL GUST BTWN 20 AND 25 KT DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TODAY. LCL IFR
IS POSSIBLE TOWARDS DAWN TUESDAY IN VALLEY STRATUS AND FOG.

LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE REGION
DURING THE LONG TERM. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS...HOWEVER PATCHY DENSE LATE NIGHT FOG MAY ALLOW FOR
ISOLD LIFR CONDITIONS ACROSS SOME OF THE INTERIOR VALLEYS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS CONVERTED TO AN SCA AS WE SEE
MARGINAL GUSTS TO NR 25 KT AS WELL AS SEAS NR 5 FT INTO TONIGHT.

LONG TERM...WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$
ES




000
FXUS61 KCAR 221335
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
935 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONSOLIDATE IN THE MARITIMES AND MOVE AWAY TO
THE NORTHEAST TODAY WHILE PULLING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
THEN BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
920 AM UPDATE: JUST MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO THE 8AM TO 2PM QPF
FCST AND SKY GRIDS THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. OTHERWISE...
FCST HRLY TEMPS WERE ADJUSTED BASED ON 8-9AM OBS TO UNCHGD FCST
AFTN HI TEMPS.

ORGNL DISC: A BAND OF RAIN IN WESTERN AREAS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH EASTERN AREAS DURING THE MID MORNING HOURS TODAY. THIS
AFTERNOON WILL THEN BE BREEZY WITH ONLY SPOTTY SHOWERS ACROSS THE
NORTH AND DRYING DOWNEAST. THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY WAS LIFTED AS A
SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZE IS PICKING UP AND CLEARING THE FOG.

THE SUBTROPICAL LOW TO OUR EAST WILL QUICKLY LIFT NORTHEAST AND
AWAY EARLY THIS MORNING. LOW PRESSURE IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY
WILL LIFT NORTH TODAY PULLING A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA. HUMID
AIR HAS RESULTED IN SOME DENSE FOG ACROSS EASTERN AREAS EARLY
THIS MORNING. FOG IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE LATER THIS MORNING AS
WINDS INCREASE BEHIND DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE. A BAND OF SHOWERS
WILL CROSS THE NORTH AROUND MID MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE MIDDAY WILL THEN BE WINDY AND MILD
BEHIND THE FRONT. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL THEN FILTER INTO THE
AREA LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
OVER THE NORTH AND MOSTLY SUNNY DOWNEAST THIS AFTERNOON. TONIGHT
WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY, BREEZY AND CHILLY AS THE GRADIENT BETWEEN
LOW PRESSURE WELL TO THE NORTHEAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION CONTINUES TO PUSH COOL AIR INTO THE AREA.
SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR DOWNEAST. SOME MOISTURE POOLED IN THE
UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING PARTIAL CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE NORTH.&&

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY WITH PARTLY CLOUDY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS...WITH PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
DOWNEAST. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH PARTLY CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES NORTH AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES DOWNEAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
AT SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL LEVELS TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY WITH GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES NORTH AND PARTLY
CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES DOWNEAST. A COLD FRONT COULD BRING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL IMPROVE TO
MVFR LATE THIS MORNING THEN VFR THIS AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT. GUSTY WINDS TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH COLD
ADVECTION MAY RESULT IN TURBULENCE.

SHORT TERM: OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
NORTH AND MOUNTAINS TUESDAY. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: FOG WILL DISSIPATE EARLY THIS MORNING AS WINDS QUICKLY
INCREASE BEHIND DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE. AN SCA WILL BE UP TODAY
INTO TONIGHT FOR WINDS GUSTING OVER 25 KT AND SEAS OVER 5 FT.

SHORT TERM: SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS COULD PERSIST EARLY
TUESDAY. CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...NORCROSS
LONG TERM...NORCROSS
AVIATION...VJN/NORCROSS
MARINE...VJN/NORCROSS







000
FXUS61 KCAR 221335
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
935 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONSOLIDATE IN THE MARITIMES AND MOVE AWAY TO
THE NORTHEAST TODAY WHILE PULLING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
THEN BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
920 AM UPDATE: JUST MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO THE 8AM TO 2PM QPF
FCST AND SKY GRIDS THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. OTHERWISE...
FCST HRLY TEMPS WERE ADJUSTED BASED ON 8-9AM OBS TO UNCHGD FCST
AFTN HI TEMPS.

ORGNL DISC: A BAND OF RAIN IN WESTERN AREAS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH EASTERN AREAS DURING THE MID MORNING HOURS TODAY. THIS
AFTERNOON WILL THEN BE BREEZY WITH ONLY SPOTTY SHOWERS ACROSS THE
NORTH AND DRYING DOWNEAST. THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY WAS LIFTED AS A
SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZE IS PICKING UP AND CLEARING THE FOG.

THE SUBTROPICAL LOW TO OUR EAST WILL QUICKLY LIFT NORTHEAST AND
AWAY EARLY THIS MORNING. LOW PRESSURE IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY
WILL LIFT NORTH TODAY PULLING A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA. HUMID
AIR HAS RESULTED IN SOME DENSE FOG ACROSS EASTERN AREAS EARLY
THIS MORNING. FOG IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE LATER THIS MORNING AS
WINDS INCREASE BEHIND DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE. A BAND OF SHOWERS
WILL CROSS THE NORTH AROUND MID MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE MIDDAY WILL THEN BE WINDY AND MILD
BEHIND THE FRONT. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL THEN FILTER INTO THE
AREA LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
OVER THE NORTH AND MOSTLY SUNNY DOWNEAST THIS AFTERNOON. TONIGHT
WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY, BREEZY AND CHILLY AS THE GRADIENT BETWEEN
LOW PRESSURE WELL TO THE NORTHEAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION CONTINUES TO PUSH COOL AIR INTO THE AREA.
SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR DOWNEAST. SOME MOISTURE POOLED IN THE
UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING PARTIAL CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE NORTH.&&

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY WITH PARTLY CLOUDY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS...WITH PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
DOWNEAST. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH PARTLY CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES NORTH AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES DOWNEAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
AT SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL LEVELS TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY WITH GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES NORTH AND PARTLY
CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES DOWNEAST. A COLD FRONT COULD BRING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL IMPROVE TO
MVFR LATE THIS MORNING THEN VFR THIS AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT. GUSTY WINDS TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH COLD
ADVECTION MAY RESULT IN TURBULENCE.

SHORT TERM: OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
NORTH AND MOUNTAINS TUESDAY. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: FOG WILL DISSIPATE EARLY THIS MORNING AS WINDS QUICKLY
INCREASE BEHIND DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE. AN SCA WILL BE UP TODAY
INTO TONIGHT FOR WINDS GUSTING OVER 25 KT AND SEAS OVER 5 FT.

SHORT TERM: SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS COULD PERSIST EARLY
TUESDAY. CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...NORCROSS
LONG TERM...NORCROSS
AVIATION...VJN/NORCROSS
MARINE...VJN/NORCROSS






000
FXUS61 KGYX 221258
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
850 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE COAST THIS MORNING. AN UPPER TROUGH
WILL PROVIDE SOME LINGERING CLOUDS TODAY AS WELL AS SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A
SHOT OF COOLER AIR FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THIS RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK
AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND
EXPECTED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
9 AM UPDATE...HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST A LITTLE BIT TO TAKE INTO
ACCOUNT LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONAL DATA. COLD FRONT NOW PUSHING
ACROSS MAINE WITH A LINE OF SHOWERS. AFTER FROPA...WE EXPECT SUNNY
SKIES EXCEPT IN THE MOUNTAINS WHERE MOIST UPSLOPE WILL KEEP THINGS
CLOUDY.

550 AM...I DROPPED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE AREA AS
VISIBILITIES CONTINUE TO IMPROVE. OTHERWISE...1ST PERIOD GRIDS
WERE ADJUSTED BASED ON MESONET AND RADAR TRENDS.

PREV DISC...
AT 06Z...A 997 MILLIBAR LOW WAS CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST QUEBEC
WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT THROUGH WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND A
SECONDARY FRONT THROUGH EASTERN NEW YORK STATE. NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR MOSAIC SHOWED A BAND OF SHOWERS ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE FRONT
AND SHOWERS SHOULD CLEAR THE COAST THIS MORNING WITH GUSTY
WESTERLY FLOW IN ITS WAKE. INSTABILITY WITH UPPER TROUGH SHOULD
PROVIDE A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDS TODAY WITH ANY SHOWERS CONFINED TO
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. COOLING COLUMN SPELLS A RAIN/SNOW MIX OR WET
SNOW FOR THE HIGHEST TERRAIN STARTING LATE TODAY. HIGHS RANGE FROM
NEAR 60 IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS TO AROUND 70F AT THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY BUILD EAST TONIGHT WITH THE
LIGHT DOWNSLOPING WINDS CONTINUING...SO CLOUDS WILL LINGER IN THE
MOUNTAINS BUT SKIES SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR ELSEWHERE. MUCH
COOLER TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 30S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND IN
THE 40S ELSEWHERE.

ON TUESDAY...A WEAK FRONT AND REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL AIR SPELLS
A FEW CLOUDS MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN ALONG WITH WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS. HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 60S...WITH A FEW
50S ACROSS MOUNTAIN SECTIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE
PERIOD AND FULLY UNDER CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
A PROLONGED PERIOD OF DRY...SUNNY CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY AND
CLEAR SKIES DURING THE NIGHTTIME PERIODS. LATE NIGHT FOG WILL BE
LIKELY OVER THE INTERIOR VALLEYS EACH NIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
CT RIVER VALLEY.

THERE WILL ALSO BE A MODERATION TREND WITH TEMPERATURES HEADING
INTO THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND. EXPECT WIDESPREAD 70S DURING THE DAY
BY THE END OF THE WORKWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... VFR THROUGHOUT. WEST WINDS
WILL GUST BTWN 20 AND 25 KT DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TODAY. LCL IFR
IS POSSIBLE TOWARDS DAWN TUESDAY IN VALLEY STRATUS AND FOG.

LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE REGION
DURING THE LONG TERM. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS...HOWEVER PATCHY DENSE LATE NIGHT FOG MAY ALLOW FOR
ISOLD LIFR CONDITIONS ACROSS SOME OF THE INTERIOR VALLEYS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS CONVERTED TO AN SCA AS WE SEE
MARGINAL GUSTS TO NR 25 KT AS WELL AS SEAS NR 5 FT INTO TONIGHT.

LONG TERM...WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$
ES



000
FXUS61 KGYX 221258
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
850 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE COAST THIS MORNING. AN UPPER TROUGH
WILL PROVIDE SOME LINGERING CLOUDS TODAY AS WELL AS SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A
SHOT OF COOLER AIR FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THIS RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK
AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND
EXPECTED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
9 AM UPDATE...HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST A LITTLE BIT TO TAKE INTO
ACCOUNT LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONAL DATA. COLD FRONT NOW PUSHING
ACROSS MAINE WITH A LINE OF SHOWERS. AFTER FROPA...WE EXPECT SUNNY
SKIES EXCEPT IN THE MOUNTAINS WHERE MOIST UPSLOPE WILL KEEP THINGS
CLOUDY.

550 AM...I DROPPED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE AREA AS
VISIBILITIES CONTINUE TO IMPROVE. OTHERWISE...1ST PERIOD GRIDS
WERE ADJUSTED BASED ON MESONET AND RADAR TRENDS.

PREV DISC...
AT 06Z...A 997 MILLIBAR LOW WAS CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST QUEBEC
WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT THROUGH WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND A
SECONDARY FRONT THROUGH EASTERN NEW YORK STATE. NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR MOSAIC SHOWED A BAND OF SHOWERS ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE FRONT
AND SHOWERS SHOULD CLEAR THE COAST THIS MORNING WITH GUSTY
WESTERLY FLOW IN ITS WAKE. INSTABILITY WITH UPPER TROUGH SHOULD
PROVIDE A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDS TODAY WITH ANY SHOWERS CONFINED TO
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. COOLING COLUMN SPELLS A RAIN/SNOW MIX OR WET
SNOW FOR THE HIGHEST TERRAIN STARTING LATE TODAY. HIGHS RANGE FROM
NEAR 60 IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS TO AROUND 70F AT THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY BUILD EAST TONIGHT WITH THE
LIGHT DOWNSLOPING WINDS CONTINUING...SO CLOUDS WILL LINGER IN THE
MOUNTAINS BUT SKIES SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR ELSEWHERE. MUCH
COOLER TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 30S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND IN
THE 40S ELSEWHERE.

ON TUESDAY...A WEAK FRONT AND REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL AIR SPELLS
A FEW CLOUDS MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN ALONG WITH WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS. HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 60S...WITH A FEW
50S ACROSS MOUNTAIN SECTIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE
PERIOD AND FULLY UNDER CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
A PROLONGED PERIOD OF DRY...SUNNY CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY AND
CLEAR SKIES DURING THE NIGHTTIME PERIODS. LATE NIGHT FOG WILL BE
LIKELY OVER THE INTERIOR VALLEYS EACH NIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
CT RIVER VALLEY.

THERE WILL ALSO BE A MODERATION TREND WITH TEMPERATURES HEADING
INTO THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND. EXPECT WIDESPREAD 70S DURING THE DAY
BY THE END OF THE WORKWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... VFR THROUGHOUT. WEST WINDS
WILL GUST BTWN 20 AND 25 KT DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TODAY. LCL IFR
IS POSSIBLE TOWARDS DAWN TUESDAY IN VALLEY STRATUS AND FOG.

LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE REGION
DURING THE LONG TERM. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS...HOWEVER PATCHY DENSE LATE NIGHT FOG MAY ALLOW FOR
ISOLD LIFR CONDITIONS ACROSS SOME OF THE INTERIOR VALLEYS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS CONVERTED TO AN SCA AS WE SEE
MARGINAL GUSTS TO NR 25 KT AS WELL AS SEAS NR 5 FT INTO TONIGHT.

LONG TERM...WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$
ES




000
FXUS61 KCAR 221103
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
703 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONSOLIDATE IN THE MARITIMES AND MOVE AWAY TO
THE NORTHEAST TODAY WHILE PULLING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
THEN BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A BAND OF RAIN IN WESTERN AREAS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
EASTERN AREAS DURING THE MID MORNING HOURS TODAY. THIS AFTERNOON
WILL THEN BE BREEZY WITH ONLY SPOTTY SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH AND
DRYING DOWNEAST. THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY WAS LIFTED AS A
SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZE IS PICKING UP AND CLEARING THE FOG.

THE SUBTROPICAL LOW TO OUR EAST WILL QUICKLY LIFT NORTHEAST AND
AWAY EARLY THIS MORNING. LOW PRESSURE IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY
WILL LIFT NORTH TODAY PULLING A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA. HUMID
AIR HAS RESULTED IN SOME DENSE FOG ACROSS EASTERN AREAS EARLY
THIS MORNING. FOG IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE LATER THIS MORNING AS
WINDS INCREASE BEHIND DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE. A BAND OF SHOWERS
WILL CROSS THE NORTH AROUND MID MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE MIDDAY WILL THEN BE WINDY AND MILD
BEHIND THE FRONT. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL THEN FILTER INTO THE
AREA LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
OVER THE NORTH AND MOSTLY SUNNY DOWNEAST THIS AFTERNOON. TONIGHT
WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY, BREEZY AND CHILLY AS THE GRADIENT BETWEEN
LOW PRESSURE WELL TO THE NORTHEAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION CONTINUES TO PUSH COOL AIR INTO THE AREA.
SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR DOWNEAST. SOME MOISTURE POOLED IN THE
UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING PARTIAL CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY WITH PARTLY CLOUDY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS...WITH PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
DOWNEAST. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH PARTLY CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES NORTH AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES DOWNEAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
AT SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL LEVELS TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY WITH GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES NORTH AND PARTLY
CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES DOWNEAST. A COLD FRONT COULD BRING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL IMPROVE TO
MVFR LATE THIS MORNING THEN VFR THIS AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT. GUSTY WINDS TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH COLD
ADVECTION MAY RESULT IN TURBULENCE.

SHORT TERM: OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
NORTH AND MOUNTAINS TUESDAY. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: FOG WILL DISSIPATE EARLY THIS MORNING AS WINDS QUICKLY
INCREASE BEHIND DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE. AN SCA WILL BE UP TODAY
INTO TONIGHT FOR WINDS GUSTING OVER 25 KT AND SEAS OVER 5 FT.

SHORT TERM: SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS COULD PERSIST EARLY
TUESDAY. CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...BLOOMER
SHORT TERM...NORCROSS
LONG TERM...NORCROSS
AVIATION...BLOOMER/NORCROSS
MARINE...BLOOMER/NORCROSS








000
FXUS61 KCAR 221103
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
703 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONSOLIDATE IN THE MARITIMES AND MOVE AWAY TO
THE NORTHEAST TODAY WHILE PULLING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
THEN BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A BAND OF RAIN IN WESTERN AREAS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
EASTERN AREAS DURING THE MID MORNING HOURS TODAY. THIS AFTERNOON
WILL THEN BE BREEZY WITH ONLY SPOTTY SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH AND
DRYING DOWNEAST. THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY WAS LIFTED AS A
SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZE IS PICKING UP AND CLEARING THE FOG.

THE SUBTROPICAL LOW TO OUR EAST WILL QUICKLY LIFT NORTHEAST AND
AWAY EARLY THIS MORNING. LOW PRESSURE IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY
WILL LIFT NORTH TODAY PULLING A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA. HUMID
AIR HAS RESULTED IN SOME DENSE FOG ACROSS EASTERN AREAS EARLY
THIS MORNING. FOG IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE LATER THIS MORNING AS
WINDS INCREASE BEHIND DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE. A BAND OF SHOWERS
WILL CROSS THE NORTH AROUND MID MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE MIDDAY WILL THEN BE WINDY AND MILD
BEHIND THE FRONT. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL THEN FILTER INTO THE
AREA LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
OVER THE NORTH AND MOSTLY SUNNY DOWNEAST THIS AFTERNOON. TONIGHT
WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY, BREEZY AND CHILLY AS THE GRADIENT BETWEEN
LOW PRESSURE WELL TO THE NORTHEAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION CONTINUES TO PUSH COOL AIR INTO THE AREA.
SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR DOWNEAST. SOME MOISTURE POOLED IN THE
UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING PARTIAL CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY WITH PARTLY CLOUDY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS...WITH PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
DOWNEAST. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH PARTLY CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES NORTH AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES DOWNEAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
AT SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL LEVELS TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY WITH GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES NORTH AND PARTLY
CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES DOWNEAST. A COLD FRONT COULD BRING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL IMPROVE TO
MVFR LATE THIS MORNING THEN VFR THIS AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT. GUSTY WINDS TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH COLD
ADVECTION MAY RESULT IN TURBULENCE.

SHORT TERM: OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
NORTH AND MOUNTAINS TUESDAY. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: FOG WILL DISSIPATE EARLY THIS MORNING AS WINDS QUICKLY
INCREASE BEHIND DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE. AN SCA WILL BE UP TODAY
INTO TONIGHT FOR WINDS GUSTING OVER 25 KT AND SEAS OVER 5 FT.

SHORT TERM: SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS COULD PERSIST EARLY
TUESDAY. CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...BLOOMER
SHORT TERM...NORCROSS
LONG TERM...NORCROSS
AVIATION...BLOOMER/NORCROSS
MARINE...BLOOMER/NORCROSS







000
FXUS61 KGYX 220958
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
558 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE COAST THIS MORNING. AN UPPER TROUGH
WILL PROVIDE SOME LINGERING CLOUDS TODAY AS WELL AS SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A
SHOT OF COOLER AIR FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THIS RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK
AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND
EXPECTED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

550 AM...I DROPPED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE AREA AS
VISIBILITIES CONTINUE TO IMPROVE. OTHERWISE...1ST PERIOD GRIDS
WERE ADJUSTED BASED ON MESONET AND RADAR TRENDS.

PREV DISC...
AT 06Z...A 997 MILLIBAR LOW WAS CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST QUEBEC
WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT THROUGH WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND A
SECONDARY FRONT THROUGH EASTERN NEW YORK STATE. NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR MOSAIC SHOWED A BAND OF SHOWERS ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE FRONT
AND SHOWERS SHOULD CLEAR THE COAST THIS MORNING WITH GUSTY
WESTERLY FLOW IN ITS WAKE. INSTABILITY WITH UPPER TROUGH SHOULD
PROVIDE A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDS TODAY WITH ANY SHOWERS CONFINED TO
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. COOLING COLUMN SPELLS A RAIN/SNOW MIX OR WET
SNOW FOR THE HIGHEST TERRAIN STARTING LATE TODAY. HIGHS RANGE FROM
NEAR 60 IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS TO AROUND 70F AT THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY BUILD EAST TONIGHT WITH THE
LIGHT DOWNSLOPING WINDS CONTINUING...SO CLOUDS WILL LINGER IN THE
MOUNTAINS BUT SKIES SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR ELSEWHERE. MUCH
COOLER TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 30S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND IN
THE 40S ELSEWHERE.

ON TUESDAY...A WEAK FRONT AND REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL AIR SPELLS
A FEW CLOUDS MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN ALONG WITH WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS. HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 60S...WITH A FEW
50S ACROSS MOUNTAIN SECTIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE
PERIOD AND FULLY UNDER CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
A PROLONGED PERIOD OF DRY...SUNNY CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY AND
CLEAR SKIES DURING THE NIGHTTIME PERIODS. LATE NIGHT FOG WILL BE
LIKELY OVER THE INTERIOR VALLEYS EACH NIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
CT RIVER VALLEY.

THERE WILL ALSO BE A MODERATION TREND WITH TEMPERATURES HEADING
INTO THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND. EXPECT WIDESPREAD 70S DURING THE DAY
BY THE END OF THE WORKWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MAINLY IFR/LIFR CONDS EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING IN
STRATUS...FOG...AND SHOWERS. IMPROVING TO VFR THIS MORNING
THROUGHOUT. WEST WINDS WILL GUST BTWN 20 AND 25 KT DURING THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS TODAY. LCL IFR IS POSSIBLE TOWARDS DAWN TUESDAY IN
VALLEY STRATUS AND FOG.

LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE REGION
DURING THE LONG TERM. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS...HOWEVER PATCHY DENSE LATE NIGHT FOG MAY ALLOW FOR
ISOLD LIFR CONDITIONS ACROSS SOME OF THE INTERIOR VALLEYS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS CONVERTED TO AN SCA AS WE SEE
MARGINAL GUSTS TO NR 25 KT AS WELL AS SEAS NR 5 FT INTO TONIGHT.

LONG TERM...WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$
ES




000
FXUS61 KGYX 220958
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
558 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE COAST THIS MORNING. AN UPPER TROUGH
WILL PROVIDE SOME LINGERING CLOUDS TODAY AS WELL AS SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A
SHOT OF COOLER AIR FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THIS RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK
AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND
EXPECTED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

550 AM...I DROPPED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE AREA AS
VISIBILITIES CONTINUE TO IMPROVE. OTHERWISE...1ST PERIOD GRIDS
WERE ADJUSTED BASED ON MESONET AND RADAR TRENDS.

PREV DISC...
AT 06Z...A 997 MILLIBAR LOW WAS CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST QUEBEC
WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT THROUGH WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND A
SECONDARY FRONT THROUGH EASTERN NEW YORK STATE. NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR MOSAIC SHOWED A BAND OF SHOWERS ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE FRONT
AND SHOWERS SHOULD CLEAR THE COAST THIS MORNING WITH GUSTY
WESTERLY FLOW IN ITS WAKE. INSTABILITY WITH UPPER TROUGH SHOULD
PROVIDE A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDS TODAY WITH ANY SHOWERS CONFINED TO
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. COOLING COLUMN SPELLS A RAIN/SNOW MIX OR WET
SNOW FOR THE HIGHEST TERRAIN STARTING LATE TODAY. HIGHS RANGE FROM
NEAR 60 IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS TO AROUND 70F AT THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY BUILD EAST TONIGHT WITH THE
LIGHT DOWNSLOPING WINDS CONTINUING...SO CLOUDS WILL LINGER IN THE
MOUNTAINS BUT SKIES SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR ELSEWHERE. MUCH
COOLER TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 30S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND IN
THE 40S ELSEWHERE.

ON TUESDAY...A WEAK FRONT AND REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL AIR SPELLS
A FEW CLOUDS MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN ALONG WITH WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS. HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 60S...WITH A FEW
50S ACROSS MOUNTAIN SECTIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE
PERIOD AND FULLY UNDER CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
A PROLONGED PERIOD OF DRY...SUNNY CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY AND
CLEAR SKIES DURING THE NIGHTTIME PERIODS. LATE NIGHT FOG WILL BE
LIKELY OVER THE INTERIOR VALLEYS EACH NIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
CT RIVER VALLEY.

THERE WILL ALSO BE A MODERATION TREND WITH TEMPERATURES HEADING
INTO THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND. EXPECT WIDESPREAD 70S DURING THE DAY
BY THE END OF THE WORKWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MAINLY IFR/LIFR CONDS EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING IN
STRATUS...FOG...AND SHOWERS. IMPROVING TO VFR THIS MORNING
THROUGHOUT. WEST WINDS WILL GUST BTWN 20 AND 25 KT DURING THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS TODAY. LCL IFR IS POSSIBLE TOWARDS DAWN TUESDAY IN
VALLEY STRATUS AND FOG.

LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE REGION
DURING THE LONG TERM. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS...HOWEVER PATCHY DENSE LATE NIGHT FOG MAY ALLOW FOR
ISOLD LIFR CONDITIONS ACROSS SOME OF THE INTERIOR VALLEYS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS CONVERTED TO AN SCA AS WE SEE
MARGINAL GUSTS TO NR 25 KT AS WELL AS SEAS NR 5 FT INTO TONIGHT.

LONG TERM...WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$
ES




000
FXUS61 KGYX 220958
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
558 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE COAST THIS MORNING. AN UPPER TROUGH
WILL PROVIDE SOME LINGERING CLOUDS TODAY AS WELL AS SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A
SHOT OF COOLER AIR FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THIS RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK
AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND
EXPECTED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

550 AM...I DROPPED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE AREA AS
VISIBILITIES CONTINUE TO IMPROVE. OTHERWISE...1ST PERIOD GRIDS
WERE ADJUSTED BASED ON MESONET AND RADAR TRENDS.

PREV DISC...
AT 06Z...A 997 MILLIBAR LOW WAS CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST QUEBEC
WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT THROUGH WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND A
SECONDARY FRONT THROUGH EASTERN NEW YORK STATE. NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR MOSAIC SHOWED A BAND OF SHOWERS ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE FRONT
AND SHOWERS SHOULD CLEAR THE COAST THIS MORNING WITH GUSTY
WESTERLY FLOW IN ITS WAKE. INSTABILITY WITH UPPER TROUGH SHOULD
PROVIDE A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDS TODAY WITH ANY SHOWERS CONFINED TO
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. COOLING COLUMN SPELLS A RAIN/SNOW MIX OR WET
SNOW FOR THE HIGHEST TERRAIN STARTING LATE TODAY. HIGHS RANGE FROM
NEAR 60 IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS TO AROUND 70F AT THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY BUILD EAST TONIGHT WITH THE
LIGHT DOWNSLOPING WINDS CONTINUING...SO CLOUDS WILL LINGER IN THE
MOUNTAINS BUT SKIES SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR ELSEWHERE. MUCH
COOLER TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 30S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND IN
THE 40S ELSEWHERE.

ON TUESDAY...A WEAK FRONT AND REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL AIR SPELLS
A FEW CLOUDS MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN ALONG WITH WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS. HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 60S...WITH A FEW
50S ACROSS MOUNTAIN SECTIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE
PERIOD AND FULLY UNDER CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
A PROLONGED PERIOD OF DRY...SUNNY CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY AND
CLEAR SKIES DURING THE NIGHTTIME PERIODS. LATE NIGHT FOG WILL BE
LIKELY OVER THE INTERIOR VALLEYS EACH NIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
CT RIVER VALLEY.

THERE WILL ALSO BE A MODERATION TREND WITH TEMPERATURES HEADING
INTO THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND. EXPECT WIDESPREAD 70S DURING THE DAY
BY THE END OF THE WORKWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MAINLY IFR/LIFR CONDS EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING IN
STRATUS...FOG...AND SHOWERS. IMPROVING TO VFR THIS MORNING
THROUGHOUT. WEST WINDS WILL GUST BTWN 20 AND 25 KT DURING THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS TODAY. LCL IFR IS POSSIBLE TOWARDS DAWN TUESDAY IN
VALLEY STRATUS AND FOG.

LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE REGION
DURING THE LONG TERM. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS...HOWEVER PATCHY DENSE LATE NIGHT FOG MAY ALLOW FOR
ISOLD LIFR CONDITIONS ACROSS SOME OF THE INTERIOR VALLEYS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS CONVERTED TO AN SCA AS WE SEE
MARGINAL GUSTS TO NR 25 KT AS WELL AS SEAS NR 5 FT INTO TONIGHT.

LONG TERM...WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$
ES




000
FXUS61 KGYX 220958
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
558 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE COAST THIS MORNING. AN UPPER TROUGH
WILL PROVIDE SOME LINGERING CLOUDS TODAY AS WELL AS SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A
SHOT OF COOLER AIR FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THIS RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK
AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND
EXPECTED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

550 AM...I DROPPED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE AREA AS
VISIBILITIES CONTINUE TO IMPROVE. OTHERWISE...1ST PERIOD GRIDS
WERE ADJUSTED BASED ON MESONET AND RADAR TRENDS.

PREV DISC...
AT 06Z...A 997 MILLIBAR LOW WAS CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST QUEBEC
WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT THROUGH WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND A
SECONDARY FRONT THROUGH EASTERN NEW YORK STATE. NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR MOSAIC SHOWED A BAND OF SHOWERS ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE FRONT
AND SHOWERS SHOULD CLEAR THE COAST THIS MORNING WITH GUSTY
WESTERLY FLOW IN ITS WAKE. INSTABILITY WITH UPPER TROUGH SHOULD
PROVIDE A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDS TODAY WITH ANY SHOWERS CONFINED TO
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. COOLING COLUMN SPELLS A RAIN/SNOW MIX OR WET
SNOW FOR THE HIGHEST TERRAIN STARTING LATE TODAY. HIGHS RANGE FROM
NEAR 60 IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS TO AROUND 70F AT THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY BUILD EAST TONIGHT WITH THE
LIGHT DOWNSLOPING WINDS CONTINUING...SO CLOUDS WILL LINGER IN THE
MOUNTAINS BUT SKIES SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR ELSEWHERE. MUCH
COOLER TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 30S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND IN
THE 40S ELSEWHERE.

ON TUESDAY...A WEAK FRONT AND REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL AIR SPELLS
A FEW CLOUDS MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN ALONG WITH WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS. HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 60S...WITH A FEW
50S ACROSS MOUNTAIN SECTIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE
PERIOD AND FULLY UNDER CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
A PROLONGED PERIOD OF DRY...SUNNY CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY AND
CLEAR SKIES DURING THE NIGHTTIME PERIODS. LATE NIGHT FOG WILL BE
LIKELY OVER THE INTERIOR VALLEYS EACH NIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
CT RIVER VALLEY.

THERE WILL ALSO BE A MODERATION TREND WITH TEMPERATURES HEADING
INTO THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND. EXPECT WIDESPREAD 70S DURING THE DAY
BY THE END OF THE WORKWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MAINLY IFR/LIFR CONDS EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING IN
STRATUS...FOG...AND SHOWERS. IMPROVING TO VFR THIS MORNING
THROUGHOUT. WEST WINDS WILL GUST BTWN 20 AND 25 KT DURING THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS TODAY. LCL IFR IS POSSIBLE TOWARDS DAWN TUESDAY IN
VALLEY STRATUS AND FOG.

LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE REGION
DURING THE LONG TERM. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS...HOWEVER PATCHY DENSE LATE NIGHT FOG MAY ALLOW FOR
ISOLD LIFR CONDITIONS ACROSS SOME OF THE INTERIOR VALLEYS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS CONVERTED TO AN SCA AS WE SEE
MARGINAL GUSTS TO NR 25 KT AS WELL AS SEAS NR 5 FT INTO TONIGHT.

LONG TERM...WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$
ES




000
FXUS61 KCAR 220847
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
447 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONSOLIDATE IN THE MARITIMES AND MOVE AWAY TO
THE NORTHEAST TODAY WHILE PULLING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
THEN BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE SUBTROPICAL LOW TO OUR EAST WILL QUICKLY LIFT NORTHEAST AND
AWAY EARLY THIS MORNING. LOW PRESSURE IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY
WILL LIFT NORTH TODAY PULLING A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA. HUMID
AIR HAS RESULTED IN SOME DENSE FOG ACROSS EASTERN AREAS EARLY
THIS MORNING. FOG IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE LATER THIS MORNING AS
WINDS INCREASE BEHIND DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE. A BAND OF SHOWERS
WILL CROSS THE NORTH AROUND MID MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE MIDDAY WILL THEN BE WINDY AND MILD
BEHIND THE FRONT. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL THEN FILTER INTO THE
AREA LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
OVER THE NORTH AND MOSTLY SUNNY DOWNEAST THIS AFTERNOON. TONIGHT
WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY, BREEZY AND CHILLY AS THE GRADIENT BETWEEN
LOW PRESSURE WELL TO THE NORTHEAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION CONTINUES TO PUSH COOL AIR INTO THE AREA.
SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR DOWNEAST. SOME MOISTURE POOLED IN THE
UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING PARTIAL CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY WITH PARTLY CLOUDY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS...WITH PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
DOWNEAST. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH PARTLY CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES NORTH AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES DOWNEAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
AT SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL LEVELS TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY WITH GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES NORTH AND PARTLY
CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES DOWNEAST. A COLD FRONT COULD BRING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL IMPROVE TO
MVFR LATE THIS MORNING THEN VFR THIS AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT. GUSTY WINDS TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH COLD
ADVECTION MAY RESULT IN TURBULENCE.

SHORT TERM: OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
NORTH AND MOUNTAINS TUESDAY. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: FOG WILL DISSIPATE EARLY THIS MORNING AS WINDS QUICKLY
INCREASE BEHIND DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE. AN SCA WILL BE UP TODAY
INTO TONIGHT FOR WINDS GUSTING OVER 25 KT AND SEAS OVER 5 FT.

SHORT TERM: SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS COULD PERSIST EARLY
TUESDAY. CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MEZ002-005-
     006-011-015>017-029>032.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...BLOOMER
SHORT TERM...NORCROSS
LONG TERM...NORCROSS
AVIATION...BLOOMER/NORCROSS
MARINE...BLOOMER/NORCROSS






000
FXUS61 KCAR 220847
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
447 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONSOLIDATE IN THE MARITIMES AND MOVE AWAY TO
THE NORTHEAST TODAY WHILE PULLING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
THEN BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE SUBTROPICAL LOW TO OUR EAST WILL QUICKLY LIFT NORTHEAST AND
AWAY EARLY THIS MORNING. LOW PRESSURE IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY
WILL LIFT NORTH TODAY PULLING A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA. HUMID
AIR HAS RESULTED IN SOME DENSE FOG ACROSS EASTERN AREAS EARLY
THIS MORNING. FOG IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE LATER THIS MORNING AS
WINDS INCREASE BEHIND DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE. A BAND OF SHOWERS
WILL CROSS THE NORTH AROUND MID MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE MIDDAY WILL THEN BE WINDY AND MILD
BEHIND THE FRONT. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL THEN FILTER INTO THE
AREA LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
OVER THE NORTH AND MOSTLY SUNNY DOWNEAST THIS AFTERNOON. TONIGHT
WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY, BREEZY AND CHILLY AS THE GRADIENT BETWEEN
LOW PRESSURE WELL TO THE NORTHEAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION CONTINUES TO PUSH COOL AIR INTO THE AREA.
SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR DOWNEAST. SOME MOISTURE POOLED IN THE
UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING PARTIAL CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY WITH PARTLY CLOUDY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS...WITH PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
DOWNEAST. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH PARTLY CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES NORTH AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES DOWNEAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
AT SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL LEVELS TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY WITH GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES NORTH AND PARTLY
CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES DOWNEAST. A COLD FRONT COULD BRING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL IMPROVE TO
MVFR LATE THIS MORNING THEN VFR THIS AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT. GUSTY WINDS TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH COLD
ADVECTION MAY RESULT IN TURBULENCE.

SHORT TERM: OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
NORTH AND MOUNTAINS TUESDAY. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: FOG WILL DISSIPATE EARLY THIS MORNING AS WINDS QUICKLY
INCREASE BEHIND DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE. AN SCA WILL BE UP TODAY
INTO TONIGHT FOR WINDS GUSTING OVER 25 KT AND SEAS OVER 5 FT.

SHORT TERM: SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS COULD PERSIST EARLY
TUESDAY. CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MEZ002-005-
     006-011-015>017-029>032.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...BLOOMER
SHORT TERM...NORCROSS
LONG TERM...NORCROSS
AVIATION...BLOOMER/NORCROSS
MARINE...BLOOMER/NORCROSS






000
FXUS61 KCAR 220847
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
447 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONSOLIDATE IN THE MARITIMES AND MOVE AWAY TO
THE NORTHEAST TODAY WHILE PULLING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
THEN BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE SUBTROPICAL LOW TO OUR EAST WILL QUICKLY LIFT NORTHEAST AND
AWAY EARLY THIS MORNING. LOW PRESSURE IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY
WILL LIFT NORTH TODAY PULLING A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA. HUMID
AIR HAS RESULTED IN SOME DENSE FOG ACROSS EASTERN AREAS EARLY
THIS MORNING. FOG IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE LATER THIS MORNING AS
WINDS INCREASE BEHIND DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE. A BAND OF SHOWERS
WILL CROSS THE NORTH AROUND MID MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE MIDDAY WILL THEN BE WINDY AND MILD
BEHIND THE FRONT. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL THEN FILTER INTO THE
AREA LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
OVER THE NORTH AND MOSTLY SUNNY DOWNEAST THIS AFTERNOON. TONIGHT
WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY, BREEZY AND CHILLY AS THE GRADIENT BETWEEN
LOW PRESSURE WELL TO THE NORTHEAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION CONTINUES TO PUSH COOL AIR INTO THE AREA.
SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR DOWNEAST. SOME MOISTURE POOLED IN THE
UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING PARTIAL CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY WITH PARTLY CLOUDY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS...WITH PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
DOWNEAST. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH PARTLY CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES NORTH AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES DOWNEAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
AT SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL LEVELS TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY WITH GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES NORTH AND PARTLY
CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES DOWNEAST. A COLD FRONT COULD BRING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL IMPROVE TO
MVFR LATE THIS MORNING THEN VFR THIS AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT. GUSTY WINDS TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH COLD
ADVECTION MAY RESULT IN TURBULENCE.

SHORT TERM: OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
NORTH AND MOUNTAINS TUESDAY. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: FOG WILL DISSIPATE EARLY THIS MORNING AS WINDS QUICKLY
INCREASE BEHIND DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE. AN SCA WILL BE UP TODAY
INTO TONIGHT FOR WINDS GUSTING OVER 25 KT AND SEAS OVER 5 FT.

SHORT TERM: SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS COULD PERSIST EARLY
TUESDAY. CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MEZ002-005-
     006-011-015>017-029>032.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...BLOOMER
SHORT TERM...NORCROSS
LONG TERM...NORCROSS
AVIATION...BLOOMER/NORCROSS
MARINE...BLOOMER/NORCROSS






000
FXUS61 KCAR 220847
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
447 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONSOLIDATE IN THE MARITIMES AND MOVE AWAY TO
THE NORTHEAST TODAY WHILE PULLING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
THEN BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE SUBTROPICAL LOW TO OUR EAST WILL QUICKLY LIFT NORTHEAST AND
AWAY EARLY THIS MORNING. LOW PRESSURE IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY
WILL LIFT NORTH TODAY PULLING A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA. HUMID
AIR HAS RESULTED IN SOME DENSE FOG ACROSS EASTERN AREAS EARLY
THIS MORNING. FOG IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE LATER THIS MORNING AS
WINDS INCREASE BEHIND DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE. A BAND OF SHOWERS
WILL CROSS THE NORTH AROUND MID MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE MIDDAY WILL THEN BE WINDY AND MILD
BEHIND THE FRONT. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL THEN FILTER INTO THE
AREA LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
OVER THE NORTH AND MOSTLY SUNNY DOWNEAST THIS AFTERNOON. TONIGHT
WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY, BREEZY AND CHILLY AS THE GRADIENT BETWEEN
LOW PRESSURE WELL TO THE NORTHEAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION CONTINUES TO PUSH COOL AIR INTO THE AREA.
SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR DOWNEAST. SOME MOISTURE POOLED IN THE
UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING PARTIAL CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY WITH PARTLY CLOUDY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS...WITH PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
DOWNEAST. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH PARTLY CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES NORTH AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES DOWNEAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
AT SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL LEVELS TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY WITH GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES NORTH AND PARTLY
CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES DOWNEAST. A COLD FRONT COULD BRING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL IMPROVE TO
MVFR LATE THIS MORNING THEN VFR THIS AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT. GUSTY WINDS TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH COLD
ADVECTION MAY RESULT IN TURBULENCE.

SHORT TERM: OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
NORTH AND MOUNTAINS TUESDAY. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: FOG WILL DISSIPATE EARLY THIS MORNING AS WINDS QUICKLY
INCREASE BEHIND DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE. AN SCA WILL BE UP TODAY
INTO TONIGHT FOR WINDS GUSTING OVER 25 KT AND SEAS OVER 5 FT.

SHORT TERM: SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS COULD PERSIST EARLY
TUESDAY. CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MEZ002-005-
     006-011-015>017-029>032.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...BLOOMER
SHORT TERM...NORCROSS
LONG TERM...NORCROSS
AVIATION...BLOOMER/NORCROSS
MARINE...BLOOMER/NORCROSS






000
FXUS61 KCAR 220834
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
434 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONSOLIDATE IN THE MARITIMES AND MOVE AWAY TO
THE NORTHEAST TODAY WHILE PULLING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
THEN BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE SUBTROPICAL LOW TO OUR EAST WILL QUICKLY LIFT NORTHEAST AND
AWAY EARLY THIS MORNING. LOW PRESSURE IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY
WILL LIFT NORTH TODAY PULLING A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA. HUMID
AIR HAS RESULTED IN SOME DENSE FOG ACROSS THE DOWNEAST AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING. FOG IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE LATER THIS MORNING AS
WINDS INCREASE BEHIND DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE. A BAND OF SHOWERS
WILL CROSS THE NORTH AROUND MID MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE MIDDAY WILL THEN BE WINDY AND MILD
BEHIND THE FRONT. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL THEN FILTER INTO THE
AREA LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
OVER THE NORTH AND MOSTLY SUNNY DOWNEAST THIS AFTERNOON. TONIGHT
WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY, BREEZY AND CHILLY AS THE GRADIENT BETWEEN
LOW PRESSURE WELL TO THE NORTHEAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION CONTINUES TO PUSH COOL AIR INTO THE AREA.
SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR DOWNEAST. SOME MOISTURE POOLED IN THE
UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING PARTIAL CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE NORTH.
&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY WITH PARTLY CLOUDY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS...WITH PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
DOWNEAST. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH PARTLY CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES NORTH AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES DOWNEAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
AT SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL LEVELS TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.
&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY WITH GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES NORTH AND PARTLY
CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES DOWNEAST. A COLD FRONT COULD BRING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL IMPROVE TO
MVFR LATE THIS MORNING THEN VFR THIS AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT. GUSTY WINDS TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH COLD
ADVECTION MAY RESULT IN TURBULENCE.

SHORT TERM: OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
NORTH AND MOUNTAINS TUESDAY. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: FOG WILL DISSIPATE EARLY THIS MORNING AS WINDS QUICKLY
INCREASE BEHIND DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE. AN SCA WILL BE UP TODAY
INTO TONIGHT FOR WINDS GUSTING OVER 25 KT AND SEAS OVER 5 FT.

SHORT TERM: SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS COULD PERSIST EARLY
TUESDAY. CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MEZ015>017-
     029-030.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...BLOOMER
SHORT TERM...NORCROSS
LONG TERM...NORCROSS
AVIATION...BLOOMER/NORCROSS
MARINE...BLOOMER/NORCROSS













000
FXUS61 KCAR 220834
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
434 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONSOLIDATE IN THE MARITIMES AND MOVE AWAY TO
THE NORTHEAST TODAY WHILE PULLING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
THEN BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE SUBTROPICAL LOW TO OUR EAST WILL QUICKLY LIFT NORTHEAST AND
AWAY EARLY THIS MORNING. LOW PRESSURE IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY
WILL LIFT NORTH TODAY PULLING A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA. HUMID
AIR HAS RESULTED IN SOME DENSE FOG ACROSS THE DOWNEAST AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING. FOG IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE LATER THIS MORNING AS
WINDS INCREASE BEHIND DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE. A BAND OF SHOWERS
WILL CROSS THE NORTH AROUND MID MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE MIDDAY WILL THEN BE WINDY AND MILD
BEHIND THE FRONT. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL THEN FILTER INTO THE
AREA LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
OVER THE NORTH AND MOSTLY SUNNY DOWNEAST THIS AFTERNOON. TONIGHT
WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY, BREEZY AND CHILLY AS THE GRADIENT BETWEEN
LOW PRESSURE WELL TO THE NORTHEAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION CONTINUES TO PUSH COOL AIR INTO THE AREA.
SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR DOWNEAST. SOME MOISTURE POOLED IN THE
UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING PARTIAL CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE NORTH.
&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY WITH PARTLY CLOUDY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS...WITH PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
DOWNEAST. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH PARTLY CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES NORTH AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES DOWNEAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
AT SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL LEVELS TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.
&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY WITH GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES NORTH AND PARTLY
CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES DOWNEAST. A COLD FRONT COULD BRING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL IMPROVE TO
MVFR LATE THIS MORNING THEN VFR THIS AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT. GUSTY WINDS TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH COLD
ADVECTION MAY RESULT IN TURBULENCE.

SHORT TERM: OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
NORTH AND MOUNTAINS TUESDAY. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: FOG WILL DISSIPATE EARLY THIS MORNING AS WINDS QUICKLY
INCREASE BEHIND DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE. AN SCA WILL BE UP TODAY
INTO TONIGHT FOR WINDS GUSTING OVER 25 KT AND SEAS OVER 5 FT.

SHORT TERM: SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS COULD PERSIST EARLY
TUESDAY. CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MEZ015>017-
     029-030.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...BLOOMER
SHORT TERM...NORCROSS
LONG TERM...NORCROSS
AVIATION...BLOOMER/NORCROSS
MARINE...BLOOMER/NORCROSS












000
FXUS61 KGYX 220653
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
253 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE COAST THIS MORNING. AN UPPER TROUGH
WILL PROVIDE SOME LINGERING CLOUDS TODAY AS WELL AS SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A
SHOT OF COOLER AIR FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THIS RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK
AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND
EXPECTED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AT 06Z...A 997 MILLIBAR LOW WAS CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST QUEBEC
WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT THROUGH WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND A
SECONDARY FRONT THROUGH EASTERN NEW YORK STATE. NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR MOSAIC SHOWED A BAND OF SHOWERS ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE FRONT
AND SHOWERS SHOULD CLEAR THE COAST THIS MORNING WITH GUSTY
WESTERLY FLOW IN ITS WAKE. INSTABILITY WITH UPPER TROUGH SHOULD
PROVIDE A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDS TODAY WITH ANY SHOWERS CONFINED TO
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. COOLING COLUMN SPELLS A RAIN/SNOW MIX OR WET
SNOW FOR THE HIGHEST TERRAIN STARTING LATE TODAY. HIGHS RANGE FROM
NEAR 60 IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS TO AROUND 70F AT THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY BUILD EAST TONIGHT WITH THE
LIGHT DOWNSLOPING WINDS CONTINUING...SO CLOUDS WILL LINGER IN THE
MOUNTAINS BUT SKIES SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR ELSEWHERE. MUCH
COOLER TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 30S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND IN
THE 40S ELSEWHERE.

ON TUESDAY...A WEAK FRONT AND REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL AIR SPELLS
A FEW CLOUDS MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN ALONG WITH WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS. HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 60S...WITH A FEW
50S ACROSS MOUNTAIN SECTIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE
PERIOD AND FULLY UNDER CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
A PROLONGED PERIOD OF DRY...SUNNY CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY AND
CLEAR SKIES DURING THE NIGHTTIME PERIODS. LATE NIGHT FOG WILL BE
LIKELY OVER THE INTERIOR VALLEYS EACH NIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
CT RIVER VALLEY.

THERE WILL ALSO BE A MODERATION TREND WITH TEMPERATURES HEADING
INTO THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND. EXPECT WIDESPREAD 70S DURING THE DAY
BY THE END OF THE WORKWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MAINLY IFR/LIFR CONDS EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING IN
STRATUS...FOG...AND SHOWERS. IMPROVING TO VFR THIS MORNING
THROUGHOUT. WEST WINDS WILL GUST BTWN 20 AND 25 KT DURING THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS TODAY. LCL IFR IS POSSIBLE TOWARDS DAWN TUESDAY IN
VALLEY STRATUS AND FOG.

LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE REGION
DURING THE LONG TERM. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS...HOWEVER PATCHY DENSE LATE NIGHT FOG MAY ALLOW FOR
ISOLD LIFR CONDITIONS ACROSS SOME OF THE INTERIOR VALLEYS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS CONVERTED TO AN SCA AS WE SEE
MARGINAL GUSTS TO NR 25 KT AS WELL AS SEAS NR 5 FT INTO TONIGHT.

LONG TERM...WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MEZ018>028.
NH...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NHZ010-013-
     014.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$
SCHWIBS/CANNON



000
FXUS61 KGYX 220653
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
253 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE COAST THIS MORNING. AN UPPER TROUGH
WILL PROVIDE SOME LINGERING CLOUDS TODAY AS WELL AS SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A
SHOT OF COOLER AIR FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THIS RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK
AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND
EXPECTED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AT 06Z...A 997 MILLIBAR LOW WAS CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST QUEBEC
WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT THROUGH WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND A
SECONDARY FRONT THROUGH EASTERN NEW YORK STATE. NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR MOSAIC SHOWED A BAND OF SHOWERS ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE FRONT
AND SHOWERS SHOULD CLEAR THE COAST THIS MORNING WITH GUSTY
WESTERLY FLOW IN ITS WAKE. INSTABILITY WITH UPPER TROUGH SHOULD
PROVIDE A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDS TODAY WITH ANY SHOWERS CONFINED TO
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. COOLING COLUMN SPELLS A RAIN/SNOW MIX OR WET
SNOW FOR THE HIGHEST TERRAIN STARTING LATE TODAY. HIGHS RANGE FROM
NEAR 60 IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS TO AROUND 70F AT THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY BUILD EAST TONIGHT WITH THE
LIGHT DOWNSLOPING WINDS CONTINUING...SO CLOUDS WILL LINGER IN THE
MOUNTAINS BUT SKIES SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR ELSEWHERE. MUCH
COOLER TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 30S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND IN
THE 40S ELSEWHERE.

ON TUESDAY...A WEAK FRONT AND REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL AIR SPELLS
A FEW CLOUDS MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN ALONG WITH WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS. HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 60S...WITH A FEW
50S ACROSS MOUNTAIN SECTIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE
PERIOD AND FULLY UNDER CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
A PROLONGED PERIOD OF DRY...SUNNY CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY AND
CLEAR SKIES DURING THE NIGHTTIME PERIODS. LATE NIGHT FOG WILL BE
LIKELY OVER THE INTERIOR VALLEYS EACH NIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
CT RIVER VALLEY.

THERE WILL ALSO BE A MODERATION TREND WITH TEMPERATURES HEADING
INTO THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND. EXPECT WIDESPREAD 70S DURING THE DAY
BY THE END OF THE WORKWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MAINLY IFR/LIFR CONDS EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING IN
STRATUS...FOG...AND SHOWERS. IMPROVING TO VFR THIS MORNING
THROUGHOUT. WEST WINDS WILL GUST BTWN 20 AND 25 KT DURING THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS TODAY. LCL IFR IS POSSIBLE TOWARDS DAWN TUESDAY IN
VALLEY STRATUS AND FOG.

LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE REGION
DURING THE LONG TERM. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS...HOWEVER PATCHY DENSE LATE NIGHT FOG MAY ALLOW FOR
ISOLD LIFR CONDITIONS ACROSS SOME OF THE INTERIOR VALLEYS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS CONVERTED TO AN SCA AS WE SEE
MARGINAL GUSTS TO NR 25 KT AS WELL AS SEAS NR 5 FT INTO TONIGHT.

LONG TERM...WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MEZ018>028.
NH...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NHZ010-013-
     014.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$
SCHWIBS/CANNON




000
FXUS61 KCAR 220411
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1211 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST THROUGH OVERNIGHT AND
CROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
WEST ON TUESDAY AND CREST OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
MIDNIGHT UPDATE...MOST OF THE REGION IS RAIN FREE. HOWEVER, THERE
IS A SHARP EDGE OF SHOWERS IN SOUTHEASTERN WASHINGTON COUNTY ALONG
THE NORTHWEST EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL LOW MOVING UP INTO THE
MARITIMES. UPDATED FORECAST TO MORE SHARPLY DEFINE THE EDGE OF
RAIN AND GO ISOLATED SHOWERS CENTRAL AREAS AND WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
IN SOUTHERN AND EASTERN WASHINGTON COUNTY OVERNIGHT.

SREF AND GFS ENSM BRING UPWARDS OF AN INCH OF RNFL TO FAR SE
WASHINGTON COUNTY WITH SIG RNFL REACHING FAR SE AROOSTOOK COUNTY
OVRNGT (BEGINNING MID TO LATE EVE) WITH THE OPEN ATLC SFC LOW MOVG
TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA...WHILE OPNL 12Z GFS ...ECMWF AND CAN MODELS
ONLY GRAZE WASHINGTON COUNTY. FOR NOW WE TRY TO SPLIT THE
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THESE TWO CAMPS OF MODELS...REALIZING THAT WE
MAY INCUR SIG RNFL ERRORS OVR THE SE HLF OF THE FA IF EITHER OF
THE TWO SCENARIOS ARE CORRECT.

OTHERWISE...MODELS HAVE APPEARED TO BACK OFF OF SIG COLD FRONTAL
SHWR FROM INVADING MUCH OF NW ME PRIOR TO ERLY MON MORN...WITH
SHWRS SPREADING EWRD ACROSS THE REST OF NRN ME MON MORN INTO ERLY
AFTN. SUBSEQUENTLY...SOME PTNS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE FA MAY NOT
EXPERIENCE MUCH IN THE RNFL BEFORE A COLD FRONT DRIES THE REGION
OUT BY LATER MON AFTN. TEMPS WILL BE VERY MILD TNGT IN SRLY FLOW
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...THEN COOLER ON MON...SPCLY ACROSS THE NW
HLF OF THE FA WHICH WILL EXPERIENCE AN EARLIER COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH PERIOD BEGINNING WITH FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OFF TO THE EAST OF THE REGION WITH WEST TO NW FLOW TAKING
OVER ON THE BACK SIDE OF FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE MONDAY NIGHT. COLD
AIR ADVECTION WILL MAKE FOR COOLER OVERNIGHT LOWS COMPARED TO THE
PAST SEVERAL DAYS WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION MINUS THE COAST. ALL THE MODELS INDICATE
A WEAK DISTURBANCE AND FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH BRINGING A CHANCE OF
A ISOLATED SHOWER TUESDAY ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MAINE. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S NORTH AND
LOWER 60S SOUTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST TUESDAY
NIGHT BRINGING DECREASING CLOUDS WITH MODELED SOUNDINGS INDICATING
DRY AIR BUILDING IN. THIS COUPLED WITH WINDS DROPPING OFF WILL ALLOW
FOR LOWS TO GENERALLY DIP INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S NORTH
AND UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S SOUTH. MOVING INTO WEDNESDAY MODELS
HAVE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE. A
BIT OF RETURN FLOW WILL KICK IN AROUND THE SURFACE HIGH WITH WIND
BECOMING WEST TO SW THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ONE WORD DESCRIBES THE FORECAST DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...WOW!
UNSEASONABLY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WITH HEIGHTS UP TO 590 DCM
WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. AT MID WEEK TO THE
NORTHEAST U.S. BY SUNDAY.  THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR HIGH TEMPS 10-15
DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO FOR LATE SEPTEMBER.

THE ONE FLY IN THE OINTMENT IS A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WHICH MAY
BRING SOME CLOUDS TO NORTHEAST MAINE ON SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE N APPEAR TO BE SLOWLY
LOWERING TO MVFR CLGS FROM THE S LATE THIS AFTN...WHILE DOWNEAST
SITES ARE HANGING ON TO LOW MVFR. CONDITIONS WILL CONT TO LOWER
OVRNGT TO IFR/LIFR IN BKN-OVC ST FROM S TO N. SHWRS COULD ALSO
REDUCE VSBYS TO THE 3 TO 5 NM RANGE ATTMS OVRGNT. CONDITIONS THEN
IMPROVE TO VFR FROM SW TO NE BEHIND A COLD FRONT BEGINNING OVR
WRN DOWNEAST PTNS ERLY MON MORN THEN PROGRESSING TO FAR NRN TAF
SITES BY ERLY AFTN.

SHORT TERM: EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE FA.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE WATERS WILL BE BUILDING SWELL
FROM A LOW MOVG NE FROM OFF THE MID ATLC STATES TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA
BY MON MORN. WV HTS SHOULD MAX OUT DURG MON AFTN BEFORE SLOWLY
SUBSIDING AFTWRDS. SUBSEQUENTLY...WE ISSUED AN SCA FOR HAZ SEAS
FOR ALL OF MZS BEGINNING 12Z MON...CONTG AT LEAST TIL 12Z TUE. WE
ARE A LITTLE CONCERNED ABOUT HI SURF CONDITIONS IN THE MON AFTN TM
FRAME AS OPEN OCEAN WV HTS REACH CLOSE TO 10 FT...BUT THE FACT THAT
THE SWELL PD IS ARND 10 SEC RATHER THAN 15 SEC...AND THE PD OF
HIGHEST WVS ONLY LAST FOR ABOUT 6 HRS OFF OF HIGH TIDE...WE WILL
HOLD OFF ON ANY HIGH SURF HDLNS ATTM. OTHERWISE...VSBYS REDUCED
BY MARINE FOG AND GENERAL RNFL...SPCLY LATER TNGT OVR MZ050 IS A
SECONDARY CONCERN.

SHORT TERM: SCA FOR SEAS CONTINUES INTO MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING WITH SEAS GENERALLY 6 TO 7 FT DURING THIS PERIOD.
THIS IS DUE TO LONG PERIOD SWELL COMING FROM A SUBTROPICAL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM JUST OFFSHORE MOVING NE TONIGHT.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING
     TO 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...BLOOMER







000
FXUS61 KCAR 220411
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1211 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST THROUGH OVERNIGHT AND
CROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
WEST ON TUESDAY AND CREST OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
MIDNIGHT UPDATE...MOST OF THE REGION IS RAIN FREE. HOWEVER, THERE
IS A SHARP EDGE OF SHOWERS IN SOUTHEASTERN WASHINGTON COUNTY ALONG
THE NORTHWEST EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL LOW MOVING UP INTO THE
MARITIMES. UPDATED FORECAST TO MORE SHARPLY DEFINE THE EDGE OF
RAIN AND GO ISOLATED SHOWERS CENTRAL AREAS AND WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
IN SOUTHERN AND EASTERN WASHINGTON COUNTY OVERNIGHT.

SREF AND GFS ENSM BRING UPWARDS OF AN INCH OF RNFL TO FAR SE
WASHINGTON COUNTY WITH SIG RNFL REACHING FAR SE AROOSTOOK COUNTY
OVRNGT (BEGINNING MID TO LATE EVE) WITH THE OPEN ATLC SFC LOW MOVG
TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA...WHILE OPNL 12Z GFS ...ECMWF AND CAN MODELS
ONLY GRAZE WASHINGTON COUNTY. FOR NOW WE TRY TO SPLIT THE
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THESE TWO CAMPS OF MODELS...REALIZING THAT WE
MAY INCUR SIG RNFL ERRORS OVR THE SE HLF OF THE FA IF EITHER OF
THE TWO SCENARIOS ARE CORRECT.

OTHERWISE...MODELS HAVE APPEARED TO BACK OFF OF SIG COLD FRONTAL
SHWR FROM INVADING MUCH OF NW ME PRIOR TO ERLY MON MORN...WITH
SHWRS SPREADING EWRD ACROSS THE REST OF NRN ME MON MORN INTO ERLY
AFTN. SUBSEQUENTLY...SOME PTNS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE FA MAY NOT
EXPERIENCE MUCH IN THE RNFL BEFORE A COLD FRONT DRIES THE REGION
OUT BY LATER MON AFTN. TEMPS WILL BE VERY MILD TNGT IN SRLY FLOW
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...THEN COOLER ON MON...SPCLY ACROSS THE NW
HLF OF THE FA WHICH WILL EXPERIENCE AN EARLIER COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH PERIOD BEGINNING WITH FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OFF TO THE EAST OF THE REGION WITH WEST TO NW FLOW TAKING
OVER ON THE BACK SIDE OF FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE MONDAY NIGHT. COLD
AIR ADVECTION WILL MAKE FOR COOLER OVERNIGHT LOWS COMPARED TO THE
PAST SEVERAL DAYS WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION MINUS THE COAST. ALL THE MODELS INDICATE
A WEAK DISTURBANCE AND FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH BRINGING A CHANCE OF
A ISOLATED SHOWER TUESDAY ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MAINE. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S NORTH AND
LOWER 60S SOUTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST TUESDAY
NIGHT BRINGING DECREASING CLOUDS WITH MODELED SOUNDINGS INDICATING
DRY AIR BUILDING IN. THIS COUPLED WITH WINDS DROPPING OFF WILL ALLOW
FOR LOWS TO GENERALLY DIP INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S NORTH
AND UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S SOUTH. MOVING INTO WEDNESDAY MODELS
HAVE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE. A
BIT OF RETURN FLOW WILL KICK IN AROUND THE SURFACE HIGH WITH WIND
BECOMING WEST TO SW THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ONE WORD DESCRIBES THE FORECAST DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...WOW!
UNSEASONABLY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WITH HEIGHTS UP TO 590 DCM
WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. AT MID WEEK TO THE
NORTHEAST U.S. BY SUNDAY.  THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR HIGH TEMPS 10-15
DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO FOR LATE SEPTEMBER.

THE ONE FLY IN THE OINTMENT IS A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WHICH MAY
BRING SOME CLOUDS TO NORTHEAST MAINE ON SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE N APPEAR TO BE SLOWLY
LOWERING TO MVFR CLGS FROM THE S LATE THIS AFTN...WHILE DOWNEAST
SITES ARE HANGING ON TO LOW MVFR. CONDITIONS WILL CONT TO LOWER
OVRNGT TO IFR/LIFR IN BKN-OVC ST FROM S TO N. SHWRS COULD ALSO
REDUCE VSBYS TO THE 3 TO 5 NM RANGE ATTMS OVRGNT. CONDITIONS THEN
IMPROVE TO VFR FROM SW TO NE BEHIND A COLD FRONT BEGINNING OVR
WRN DOWNEAST PTNS ERLY MON MORN THEN PROGRESSING TO FAR NRN TAF
SITES BY ERLY AFTN.

SHORT TERM: EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE FA.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE WATERS WILL BE BUILDING SWELL
FROM A LOW MOVG NE FROM OFF THE MID ATLC STATES TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA
BY MON MORN. WV HTS SHOULD MAX OUT DURG MON AFTN BEFORE SLOWLY
SUBSIDING AFTWRDS. SUBSEQUENTLY...WE ISSUED AN SCA FOR HAZ SEAS
FOR ALL OF MZS BEGINNING 12Z MON...CONTG AT LEAST TIL 12Z TUE. WE
ARE A LITTLE CONCERNED ABOUT HI SURF CONDITIONS IN THE MON AFTN TM
FRAME AS OPEN OCEAN WV HTS REACH CLOSE TO 10 FT...BUT THE FACT THAT
THE SWELL PD IS ARND 10 SEC RATHER THAN 15 SEC...AND THE PD OF
HIGHEST WVS ONLY LAST FOR ABOUT 6 HRS OFF OF HIGH TIDE...WE WILL
HOLD OFF ON ANY HIGH SURF HDLNS ATTM. OTHERWISE...VSBYS REDUCED
BY MARINE FOG AND GENERAL RNFL...SPCLY LATER TNGT OVR MZ050 IS A
SECONDARY CONCERN.

SHORT TERM: SCA FOR SEAS CONTINUES INTO MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING WITH SEAS GENERALLY 6 TO 7 FT DURING THIS PERIOD.
THIS IS DUE TO LONG PERIOD SWELL COMING FROM A SUBTROPICAL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM JUST OFFSHORE MOVING NE TONIGHT.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING
     TO 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...BLOOMER








000
FXUS61 KCAR 220258
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1058 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST THROUGH OVERNIGHT AND
CROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
WEST ON TUESDAY AND CREST OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
1045 PM UPDATE...BACKED UP THE TIMING OF SHOWERS W/THE FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE W AND MOVED UP TIMING OF RAIN MOVING UP ON
THE COAST. FOG REMAINS LOCKED IN OVER THE DOWNEAST AND COAST. KEPT
THE FOG OUT OF THE NORTHERN AREAS AS WINDS REMAIN AT 10-15 MPH
SUSTAINED FROM THE SOUTH.

SREF AND GFS ENSM BRING UPWARDS OF AN INCH OF RNFL TO FAR SE
WASHINGTON COUNTY WITH SIG RNFL REACHING FAR SE AROOSTOOK COUNTY
OVRNGT (BEGINNING MID TO LATE EVE) WITH THE OPEN ATLC SFC LOW MOVG
TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA...WHILE OPNL 12Z GFS ...ECMWF AND CAN MODELS
ONLY GRAZE WASHINGTON COUNTY. FOR NOW WE TRY TO SPLIT THE
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THESE TWO CAMPS OF MODELS...REALIZING THAT WE
MAY INCUR SIG RNFL ERRORS OVR THE SE HLF OF THE FA IF EITHER OF
THE TWO SCENARIOS ARE CORRECT.

OTHERWISE...MODELS HAVE APPEARED TO BACK OFF OF SIG COLD FRONTAL
SHWR FROM INVADING MUCH OF NW ME PRIOR TO ERLY MON MORN...WITH
SHWRS SPREADING EWRD ACROSS THE REST OF NRN ME MON MORN INTO ERLY
AFTN. SUBSEQUENTLY...SOME PTNS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE FA MAY NOT
EXPERIENCE MUCH IN THE RNFL BEFORE A COLD FRONT DRIES THE REGION
OUT BY LATER MON AFTN. TEMPS WILL BE VERY MILD TNGT IN SRLY FLOW
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...THEN COOLER ON MON...SPCLY ACROSS THE NW
HLF OF THE FA WHICH WILL EXPERIENCE AN EARLIER COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH PERIOD BEGINNING WITH FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OFF TO THE EAST OF THE REGION WITH WEST TO NW FLOW TAKING
OVER ON THE BACK SIDE OF FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE MONDAY NIGHT. COLD
AIR ADVECTION WILL MAKE FOR COOLER OVERNIGHT LOWS COMPARED TO THE
PAST SEVERAL DAYS WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION MINUS THE COAST. ALL THE MODELS INDICATE
A WEAK DISTURBANCE AND FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH BRINGING A CHANCE OF
A ISOLATED SHOWER TUESDAY ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MAINE. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S NORTH AND
LOWER 60S SOUTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST TUESDAY
NIGHT BRINGING DECREASING CLOUDS WITH MODELED SOUNDINGS INDICATING
DRY AIR BUILDING IN. THIS COUPLED WITH WINDS DROPPING OFF WILL ALLOW
FOR LOWS TO GENERALLY DIP INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S NORTH
AND UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S SOUTH. MOVING INTO WEDNESDAY MODELS
HAVE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE. A
BIT OF RETURN FLOW WILL KICK IN AROUND THE SURFACE HIGH WITH WIND
BECOMING WEST TO SW THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ONE WORD DESCRIBES THE FORECAST DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...WOW!
UNSEASONABLY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WITH HEIGHTS UP TO 590 DCM
WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. AT MID WEEK TO THE
NORTHEAST U.S. BY SUNDAY.  THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR HIGH TEMPS 10-15
DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO FOR LATE SEPTEMBER.

THE ONE FLY IN THE OINTMENT IS A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WHICH MAY
BRING SOME CLOUDS TO NORTHEAST MAINE ON SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE N APPEAR TO BE SLOWLY
LOWERING TO MVFR CLGS FROM THE S LATE THIS AFTN...WHILE DOWNEAST
SITES ARE HANGING ON TO LOW MVFR. CONDITIONS WILL CONT TO LOWER
OVRNGT TO IFR/LIFR IN BKN-OVC ST FROM S TO N. SHWRS COULD ALSO
REDUCE VSBYS TO THE 3 TO 5 NM RANGE ATTMS OVRGNT. CONDITIONS THEN
IMPROVE TO VFR FROM SW TO NE BEHIND A COLD FRONT BEGINNING OVR
WRN DOWNEAST PTNS ERLY MON MORN THEN PROGRESSING TO FAR NRN TAF
SITES BY ERLY AFTN.

SHORT TERM: EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE FA.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE WATERS WILL BE BUILDING SWELL
FROM A LOW MOVG NE FROM OFF THE MID ATLC STATES TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA
BY MON MORN. WV HTS SHOULD MAX OUT DURG MON AFTN BEFORE SLOWLY
SUBSIDING AFTWRDS. SUBSEQUENTLY...WE ISSUED AN SCA FOR HAZ SEAS
FOR ALL OF MZS BEGINNING 12Z MON...CONTG AT LEAST TIL 12Z TUE. WE
ARE A LITTLE CONCERNED ABOUT HI SURF CONDITIONS IN THE MON AFTN TM
FRAME AS OPEN OCEAN WV HTS REACH CLOSE TO 10 FT...BUT THE FACT THAT
THE SWELL PD IS ARND 10 SEC RATHER THAN 15 SEC...AND THE PD OF
HIGHEST WVS ONLY LAST FOR ABOUT 6 HRS OFF OF HIGH TIDE...WE WILL
HOLD OFF ON ANY HIGH SURF HDLNS ATTM. OTHERWISE...VSBYS REDUCED
BY MARINE FOG AND GENERAL RNFL...SPCLY LATER TNGT OVR MZ050 IS A
SECONDARY CONCERN.

SHORT TERM: SCA FOR SEAS CONTINUES INTO MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING WITH SEAS GENERALLY 6 TO 7 FT DURING THIS PERIOD.
THIS IS DUE TO LONG PERIOD SWELL COMING FROM A SUBTROPICAL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM JUST OFFSHORE MOVING NE TONIGHT.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 8 AM MONDAY TO 8
     AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT







000
FXUS61 KCAR 220258
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1058 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST THROUGH OVERNIGHT AND
CROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
WEST ON TUESDAY AND CREST OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
1045 PM UPDATE...BACKED UP THE TIMING OF SHOWERS W/THE FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE W AND MOVED UP TIMING OF RAIN MOVING UP ON
THE COAST. FOG REMAINS LOCKED IN OVER THE DOWNEAST AND COAST. KEPT
THE FOG OUT OF THE NORTHERN AREAS AS WINDS REMAIN AT 10-15 MPH
SUSTAINED FROM THE SOUTH.

SREF AND GFS ENSM BRING UPWARDS OF AN INCH OF RNFL TO FAR SE
WASHINGTON COUNTY WITH SIG RNFL REACHING FAR SE AROOSTOOK COUNTY
OVRNGT (BEGINNING MID TO LATE EVE) WITH THE OPEN ATLC SFC LOW MOVG
TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA...WHILE OPNL 12Z GFS ...ECMWF AND CAN MODELS
ONLY GRAZE WASHINGTON COUNTY. FOR NOW WE TRY TO SPLIT THE
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THESE TWO CAMPS OF MODELS...REALIZING THAT WE
MAY INCUR SIG RNFL ERRORS OVR THE SE HLF OF THE FA IF EITHER OF
THE TWO SCENARIOS ARE CORRECT.

OTHERWISE...MODELS HAVE APPEARED TO BACK OFF OF SIG COLD FRONTAL
SHWR FROM INVADING MUCH OF NW ME PRIOR TO ERLY MON MORN...WITH
SHWRS SPREADING EWRD ACROSS THE REST OF NRN ME MON MORN INTO ERLY
AFTN. SUBSEQUENTLY...SOME PTNS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE FA MAY NOT
EXPERIENCE MUCH IN THE RNFL BEFORE A COLD FRONT DRIES THE REGION
OUT BY LATER MON AFTN. TEMPS WILL BE VERY MILD TNGT IN SRLY FLOW
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...THEN COOLER ON MON...SPCLY ACROSS THE NW
HLF OF THE FA WHICH WILL EXPERIENCE AN EARLIER COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH PERIOD BEGINNING WITH FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OFF TO THE EAST OF THE REGION WITH WEST TO NW FLOW TAKING
OVER ON THE BACK SIDE OF FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE MONDAY NIGHT. COLD
AIR ADVECTION WILL MAKE FOR COOLER OVERNIGHT LOWS COMPARED TO THE
PAST SEVERAL DAYS WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION MINUS THE COAST. ALL THE MODELS INDICATE
A WEAK DISTURBANCE AND FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH BRINGING A CHANCE OF
A ISOLATED SHOWER TUESDAY ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MAINE. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S NORTH AND
LOWER 60S SOUTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST TUESDAY
NIGHT BRINGING DECREASING CLOUDS WITH MODELED SOUNDINGS INDICATING
DRY AIR BUILDING IN. THIS COUPLED WITH WINDS DROPPING OFF WILL ALLOW
FOR LOWS TO GENERALLY DIP INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S NORTH
AND UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S SOUTH. MOVING INTO WEDNESDAY MODELS
HAVE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE. A
BIT OF RETURN FLOW WILL KICK IN AROUND THE SURFACE HIGH WITH WIND
BECOMING WEST TO SW THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ONE WORD DESCRIBES THE FORECAST DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...WOW!
UNSEASONABLY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WITH HEIGHTS UP TO 590 DCM
WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. AT MID WEEK TO THE
NORTHEAST U.S. BY SUNDAY.  THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR HIGH TEMPS 10-15
DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO FOR LATE SEPTEMBER.

THE ONE FLY IN THE OINTMENT IS A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WHICH MAY
BRING SOME CLOUDS TO NORTHEAST MAINE ON SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE N APPEAR TO BE SLOWLY
LOWERING TO MVFR CLGS FROM THE S LATE THIS AFTN...WHILE DOWNEAST
SITES ARE HANGING ON TO LOW MVFR. CONDITIONS WILL CONT TO LOWER
OVRNGT TO IFR/LIFR IN BKN-OVC ST FROM S TO N. SHWRS COULD ALSO
REDUCE VSBYS TO THE 3 TO 5 NM RANGE ATTMS OVRGNT. CONDITIONS THEN
IMPROVE TO VFR FROM SW TO NE BEHIND A COLD FRONT BEGINNING OVR
WRN DOWNEAST PTNS ERLY MON MORN THEN PROGRESSING TO FAR NRN TAF
SITES BY ERLY AFTN.

SHORT TERM: EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE FA.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE WATERS WILL BE BUILDING SWELL
FROM A LOW MOVG NE FROM OFF THE MID ATLC STATES TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA
BY MON MORN. WV HTS SHOULD MAX OUT DURG MON AFTN BEFORE SLOWLY
SUBSIDING AFTWRDS. SUBSEQUENTLY...WE ISSUED AN SCA FOR HAZ SEAS
FOR ALL OF MZS BEGINNING 12Z MON...CONTG AT LEAST TIL 12Z TUE. WE
ARE A LITTLE CONCERNED ABOUT HI SURF CONDITIONS IN THE MON AFTN TM
FRAME AS OPEN OCEAN WV HTS REACH CLOSE TO 10 FT...BUT THE FACT THAT
THE SWELL PD IS ARND 10 SEC RATHER THAN 15 SEC...AND THE PD OF
HIGHEST WVS ONLY LAST FOR ABOUT 6 HRS OFF OF HIGH TIDE...WE WILL
HOLD OFF ON ANY HIGH SURF HDLNS ATTM. OTHERWISE...VSBYS REDUCED
BY MARINE FOG AND GENERAL RNFL...SPCLY LATER TNGT OVR MZ050 IS A
SECONDARY CONCERN.

SHORT TERM: SCA FOR SEAS CONTINUES INTO MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING WITH SEAS GENERALLY 6 TO 7 FT DURING THIS PERIOD.
THIS IS DUE TO LONG PERIOD SWELL COMING FROM A SUBTROPICAL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM JUST OFFSHORE MOVING NE TONIGHT.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 8 AM MONDAY TO 8
     AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT








000
FXUS61 KGYX 220254 AAB
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1054 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION BY
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A SHOT OF COOLER AIR FOR TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. THIS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD
OVER THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A
A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND EXPECTED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
.UPDATE...
A COUPLE AREAS OF SHOWERS CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE REGION
TONIGHT...ONE OFF THE COAST AND ANOTHER JUST TO OUR WEST. IN
BETWEEN SOME VERY LIGHT SHOWERS IN WARM AIR ADVECTION ARE FALLING.
THE SYSTEM TO OUR WEST IS OCCLUDED AND THE TRIPLE POINT SHOULD
STAY TO OUR NORTH. MOST SHOWERS WILL STAY OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
FOOTHILLS. THE COASTAL SYSTEM MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS OR MORE
LIKELY AREAS OF DRIZZLE TO THE MIDCOAST OVERNIGHT. NOT EXPECTING
ANY SIGNIFICANT GLACIATION/THUNDER WITH ANY OF THIS ACTIVITY.

HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE COAST AND THE IMMEDIATE
INTERIOR OF NH AND MAINE AS VISIBILITIES HAVE DROPPED TO A QUARTER
MILE OR LOWER AND WILL LIKELY STAY THERE THROUGH 9 AM.

&&

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
LATE TONIGHT. IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT A VERY MOIST AIR MASS IS IN
PLACE SO AREAS OF FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TONIGHT. LATER
TONIGHT SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD AND
ALONG THE COLD FRONT. TOWARD MORNING THE FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE
COAST AND DOWNSLOPING WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP
ALLOWING THE SHOWERS TO END AND SOME CLEARING TO TAKE PLACE OVER
SOUTHERN AREAS. IN THE MTNS THE CLOUDS WILL LINGER. WITH THE CLOUD
COVER AND MOIST AIR IN PLACE TEMPS WILL BE QUITE MILD AND USED A
BLEND OF THE MODELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION WITH A DOWNSLOPING WEST
FLOW WHILE ALOFT AN UPPER TROF LINGERS ALLOWING CLOUDS AND MAYBE A
SHOWER JUST IN THE MTNS. DOWNSLOPING WILL HELP TEMPS OVER THE SRN
AREAS TO APPROACH 70 DEGREES.

MON NIGHT HIGH PRES CONTINUES TO SLOWLY BUILD EAST WITH THE LIGHT
DOWNSLOPING WINDS CONTINUING SO THE CLOUDS MAY LINGER IN THE MTNS
BUT SRN AREAS SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR. MON NIGHT WILL BE MUCH
COOLER WITH LOWS IN THE 30S IN THE MOUNTAINS AND 40S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL PASS ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES ON TUESDAY...A
WILL RESULT IN SOME UPSLOPE CLOUDS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND PERHAPS A
FEW SHOWERS.

THEREAFTER...BLOCKING HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP FOR THE REST OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. THIS WILL MEAN THE REST OF THE WEEK AND WEEKEND
SHOULD BE DRY/SUNNY WITH WARM DAYS AND CHILLY NIGHTS. WENT HIGHER
THAN THE CONSENSUS FOR MAXES LATE WEEK/WEEKEND AND COLDER THAN
CONSENSUS AT NIGHT...SIMILAR TO THE MEX. MAY HAVE TO BUMP HIGHS
FOR FRI/SAT GOING FORWARD IF CURRENT WX PATTERN WITH WARM NWLY
FLOW SETS UP...COULD SEE A DAY IN THE 80S AROUND THAT TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MAINLY IFR/LIFR CONDS EXPECTED TONIGHT IN
STRATUS/FOG/SHOWERS. CONDS IMPROVE TO VFR MON MORNING AND CONTINUE
VFR THROUGH MON NIGHT.

LONG TERM...VFR IS EXPECTED TUE THROUGH FRIDAY MOST LOCATIONS.
EXCEPTION WILL BE TYPICAL RIVER VALLEY FOG LATE NIGHT/EARLY
MORNING HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS WILL REMAIN BLO SCA CRITERIA BUT SEAS WILL
BUILD LATER TONIGHT AND THROUGH MON NIGHT SO A SCA FOR HAZARDOUS
SEAS HAS BEEN ISSUED.

LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD DOMINATE THE WATERS TUE THROUGH
SAT WITH SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR MEZ018>028.
NH...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NHZ010-013-014.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 3 AM MONDAY TO 6
     AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$


UPDATE...HANES




000
FXUS61 KGYX 220254 AAB
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1054 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION BY
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A SHOT OF COOLER AIR FOR TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. THIS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD
OVER THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A
A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND EXPECTED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
.UPDATE...
A COUPLE AREAS OF SHOWERS CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE REGION
TONIGHT...ONE OFF THE COAST AND ANOTHER JUST TO OUR WEST. IN
BETWEEN SOME VERY LIGHT SHOWERS IN WARM AIR ADVECTION ARE FALLING.
THE SYSTEM TO OUR WEST IS OCCLUDED AND THE TRIPLE POINT SHOULD
STAY TO OUR NORTH. MOST SHOWERS WILL STAY OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
FOOTHILLS. THE COASTAL SYSTEM MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS OR MORE
LIKELY AREAS OF DRIZZLE TO THE MIDCOAST OVERNIGHT. NOT EXPECTING
ANY SIGNIFICANT GLACIATION/THUNDER WITH ANY OF THIS ACTIVITY.

HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE COAST AND THE IMMEDIATE
INTERIOR OF NH AND MAINE AS VISIBILITIES HAVE DROPPED TO A QUARTER
MILE OR LOWER AND WILL LIKELY STAY THERE THROUGH 9 AM.

&&

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
LATE TONIGHT. IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT A VERY MOIST AIR MASS IS IN
PLACE SO AREAS OF FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TONIGHT. LATER
TONIGHT SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD AND
ALONG THE COLD FRONT. TOWARD MORNING THE FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE
COAST AND DOWNSLOPING WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP
ALLOWING THE SHOWERS TO END AND SOME CLEARING TO TAKE PLACE OVER
SOUTHERN AREAS. IN THE MTNS THE CLOUDS WILL LINGER. WITH THE CLOUD
COVER AND MOIST AIR IN PLACE TEMPS WILL BE QUITE MILD AND USED A
BLEND OF THE MODELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION WITH A DOWNSLOPING WEST
FLOW WHILE ALOFT AN UPPER TROF LINGERS ALLOWING CLOUDS AND MAYBE A
SHOWER JUST IN THE MTNS. DOWNSLOPING WILL HELP TEMPS OVER THE SRN
AREAS TO APPROACH 70 DEGREES.

MON NIGHT HIGH PRES CONTINUES TO SLOWLY BUILD EAST WITH THE LIGHT
DOWNSLOPING WINDS CONTINUING SO THE CLOUDS MAY LINGER IN THE MTNS
BUT SRN AREAS SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR. MON NIGHT WILL BE MUCH
COOLER WITH LOWS IN THE 30S IN THE MOUNTAINS AND 40S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL PASS ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES ON TUESDAY...A
WILL RESULT IN SOME UPSLOPE CLOUDS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND PERHAPS A
FEW SHOWERS.

THEREAFTER...BLOCKING HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP FOR THE REST OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. THIS WILL MEAN THE REST OF THE WEEK AND WEEKEND
SHOULD BE DRY/SUNNY WITH WARM DAYS AND CHILLY NIGHTS. WENT HIGHER
THAN THE CONSENSUS FOR MAXES LATE WEEK/WEEKEND AND COLDER THAN
CONSENSUS AT NIGHT...SIMILAR TO THE MEX. MAY HAVE TO BUMP HIGHS
FOR FRI/SAT GOING FORWARD IF CURRENT WX PATTERN WITH WARM NWLY
FLOW SETS UP...COULD SEE A DAY IN THE 80S AROUND THAT TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MAINLY IFR/LIFR CONDS EXPECTED TONIGHT IN
STRATUS/FOG/SHOWERS. CONDS IMPROVE TO VFR MON MORNING AND CONTINUE
VFR THROUGH MON NIGHT.

LONG TERM...VFR IS EXPECTED TUE THROUGH FRIDAY MOST LOCATIONS.
EXCEPTION WILL BE TYPICAL RIVER VALLEY FOG LATE NIGHT/EARLY
MORNING HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS WILL REMAIN BLO SCA CRITERIA BUT SEAS WILL
BUILD LATER TONIGHT AND THROUGH MON NIGHT SO A SCA FOR HAZARDOUS
SEAS HAS BEEN ISSUED.

LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD DOMINATE THE WATERS TUE THROUGH
SAT WITH SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR MEZ018>028.
NH...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NHZ010-013-014.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 3 AM MONDAY TO 6
     AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$


UPDATE...HANES



000
FXUS61 KGYX 212323 AAA
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
723 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION BY
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A SHOT OF COOLER AIR FOR TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. THIS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD
OVER THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A
A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND EXPECTED.

&&

.UPDATE...
ONLY MINOR CHANGES FOR THIS UPDATE INCLUDING TEMPERATURES...DEW
POINTS...AND PLACEMENT OF POPS PER MESOSCALE MODELS. ONLY A FEW
SHOWERS PERSISTING OVER NH AND THE WESTERN MAINE MOUNTAINS AS WELL
AS OFFSHORE. STRATUS REMAINS ENTRENCHED AND FOG IS BECOMING MORE
WIDESPREAD. ADDED DENSE FOG AND VISIBILITIES OF 1/4 SM AT TIMES IN
THE FORECAST. WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE DENSE FOG ADVISORY
OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE TONIGHT. IN ADVANCE
OF THE FRONT A VERY MOIST AIR MASS IS IN PLACE SO AREAS OF FOG IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TONIGHT. LATER TONIGHT SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD AND ALONG THE COLD FRONT. TOWARD
MORNING THE FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST AND DOWNSLOPING WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP ALLOWING THE SHOWERS TO END AND SOME
CLEARING TO TAKE PLACE OVER SOUTHERN AREAS. IN THE MTNS THE
CLOUDS WILL LINGER. WITH THE CLOUD COVER AND MOIST AIR IN PLACE
TEMPS WILL BE QUITE MILD AND USED A BLEND OF THE MODELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION WITH A DOWNSLOPING WEST
FLOW WHILE ALOFT AN UPPER TROF LINGERS ALLOWING CLOUDS AND MAYBE A
SHOWER JUST IN THE MTNS. DOWNSLOPING WILL HELP TEMPS OVER THE SRN
AREAS TO APPROACH 70 DEGREES.

MON NIGHT HIGH PRES CONTINUES TO SLOWLY BUILD EAST WITH THE LIGHT
DOWNSLOPING WINDS CONTINUING SO THE CLOUDS MAY LINGER IN THE MTNS
BUT SRN AREAS SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR. MON NIGHT WILL BE MUCH
COOLER WITH LOWS IN THE 30S IN THE MOUNTAINS AND 40S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL PASS ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES ON TUESDAY...A
WILL RESULT IN SOME UPSLOPE CLOUDS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND PERHAPS A
FEW SHOWERS.

THEREAFTER...BLOCKING HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP FOR THE REST OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. THIS WILL MEAN THE REST OF THE WEEK AND WEEKEND
SHOULD BE DRY/SUNNY WITH WARM DAYS AND CHILLY NIGHTS. WENT HIGHER
THAN THE CONSENSUS FOR MAXES LATE WEEK/WEEKEND AND COLDER THAN
CONSENSUS AT NIGHT...SIMILAR TO THE MEX. MAY HAVE TO BUMP HIGHS
FOR FRI/SAT GOING FORWARD IF CURRENT WX PATTERN WITH WARM NWLY
FLOW SETS UP...COULD SEE A DAY IN THE 80S AROUND THAT TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MAINLY IFR/LIFR CONDS EXPECTED TONIGHT IN
STRATUS/FOG/SHOWERS. CONDS IMPROVE TO VFR MON MORNING AND CONTINUE
VFR THROUGH MON NIGHT.

LONG TERM...VFR IS EXPECTED TUE THROUGH FRIDAY MOST LOCATIONS.
EXCEPTION WILL BE TYPICAL RIVER VALLEY FOG LATE NIGHT/EARLY
MORNING HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS WILL REMAIN BLO SCA CRITERIA BUT SEAS WILL
BUILD LATER TONIGHT AND THROUGH MON NIGHT SO A SCA FOR HAZARDOUS
SEAS HAS BEEN ISSUED.

LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD DOMINATE THE WATERS TUE THROUGH
SAT WITH SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 3 AM MONDAY TO 6
     AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HANES



000
FXUS61 KGYX 212323 AAA
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
723 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION BY
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A SHOT OF COOLER AIR FOR TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. THIS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD
OVER THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A
A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND EXPECTED.

&&

.UPDATE...
ONLY MINOR CHANGES FOR THIS UPDATE INCLUDING TEMPERATURES...DEW
POINTS...AND PLACEMENT OF POPS PER MESOSCALE MODELS. ONLY A FEW
SHOWERS PERSISTING OVER NH AND THE WESTERN MAINE MOUNTAINS AS WELL
AS OFFSHORE. STRATUS REMAINS ENTRENCHED AND FOG IS BECOMING MORE
WIDESPREAD. ADDED DENSE FOG AND VISIBILITIES OF 1/4 SM AT TIMES IN
THE FORECAST. WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE DENSE FOG ADVISORY
OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE TONIGHT. IN ADVANCE
OF THE FRONT A VERY MOIST AIR MASS IS IN PLACE SO AREAS OF FOG IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TONIGHT. LATER TONIGHT SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD AND ALONG THE COLD FRONT. TOWARD
MORNING THE FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST AND DOWNSLOPING WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP ALLOWING THE SHOWERS TO END AND SOME
CLEARING TO TAKE PLACE OVER SOUTHERN AREAS. IN THE MTNS THE
CLOUDS WILL LINGER. WITH THE CLOUD COVER AND MOIST AIR IN PLACE
TEMPS WILL BE QUITE MILD AND USED A BLEND OF THE MODELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION WITH A DOWNSLOPING WEST
FLOW WHILE ALOFT AN UPPER TROF LINGERS ALLOWING CLOUDS AND MAYBE A
SHOWER JUST IN THE MTNS. DOWNSLOPING WILL HELP TEMPS OVER THE SRN
AREAS TO APPROACH 70 DEGREES.

MON NIGHT HIGH PRES CONTINUES TO SLOWLY BUILD EAST WITH THE LIGHT
DOWNSLOPING WINDS CONTINUING SO THE CLOUDS MAY LINGER IN THE MTNS
BUT SRN AREAS SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR. MON NIGHT WILL BE MUCH
COOLER WITH LOWS IN THE 30S IN THE MOUNTAINS AND 40S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL PASS ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES ON TUESDAY...A
WILL RESULT IN SOME UPSLOPE CLOUDS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND PERHAPS A
FEW SHOWERS.

THEREAFTER...BLOCKING HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP FOR THE REST OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. THIS WILL MEAN THE REST OF THE WEEK AND WEEKEND
SHOULD BE DRY/SUNNY WITH WARM DAYS AND CHILLY NIGHTS. WENT HIGHER
THAN THE CONSENSUS FOR MAXES LATE WEEK/WEEKEND AND COLDER THAN
CONSENSUS AT NIGHT...SIMILAR TO THE MEX. MAY HAVE TO BUMP HIGHS
FOR FRI/SAT GOING FORWARD IF CURRENT WX PATTERN WITH WARM NWLY
FLOW SETS UP...COULD SEE A DAY IN THE 80S AROUND THAT TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MAINLY IFR/LIFR CONDS EXPECTED TONIGHT IN
STRATUS/FOG/SHOWERS. CONDS IMPROVE TO VFR MON MORNING AND CONTINUE
VFR THROUGH MON NIGHT.

LONG TERM...VFR IS EXPECTED TUE THROUGH FRIDAY MOST LOCATIONS.
EXCEPTION WILL BE TYPICAL RIVER VALLEY FOG LATE NIGHT/EARLY
MORNING HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS WILL REMAIN BLO SCA CRITERIA BUT SEAS WILL
BUILD LATER TONIGHT AND THROUGH MON NIGHT SO A SCA FOR HAZARDOUS
SEAS HAS BEEN ISSUED.

LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD DOMINATE THE WATERS TUE THROUGH
SAT WITH SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 3 AM MONDAY TO 6
     AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HANES



000
FXUS61 KGYX 212323 AAA
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
723 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION BY
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A SHOT OF COOLER AIR FOR TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. THIS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD
OVER THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A
A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND EXPECTED.

&&

.UPDATE...
ONLY MINOR CHANGES FOR THIS UPDATE INCLUDING TEMPERATURES...DEW
POINTS...AND PLACEMENT OF POPS PER MESOSCALE MODELS. ONLY A FEW
SHOWERS PERSISTING OVER NH AND THE WESTERN MAINE MOUNTAINS AS WELL
AS OFFSHORE. STRATUS REMAINS ENTRENCHED AND FOG IS BECOMING MORE
WIDESPREAD. ADDED DENSE FOG AND VISIBILITIES OF 1/4 SM AT TIMES IN
THE FORECAST. WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE DENSE FOG ADVISORY
OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE TONIGHT. IN ADVANCE
OF THE FRONT A VERY MOIST AIR MASS IS IN PLACE SO AREAS OF FOG IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TONIGHT. LATER TONIGHT SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD AND ALONG THE COLD FRONT. TOWARD
MORNING THE FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST AND DOWNSLOPING WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP ALLOWING THE SHOWERS TO END AND SOME
CLEARING TO TAKE PLACE OVER SOUTHERN AREAS. IN THE MTNS THE
CLOUDS WILL LINGER. WITH THE CLOUD COVER AND MOIST AIR IN PLACE
TEMPS WILL BE QUITE MILD AND USED A BLEND OF THE MODELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION WITH A DOWNSLOPING WEST
FLOW WHILE ALOFT AN UPPER TROF LINGERS ALLOWING CLOUDS AND MAYBE A
SHOWER JUST IN THE MTNS. DOWNSLOPING WILL HELP TEMPS OVER THE SRN
AREAS TO APPROACH 70 DEGREES.

MON NIGHT HIGH PRES CONTINUES TO SLOWLY BUILD EAST WITH THE LIGHT
DOWNSLOPING WINDS CONTINUING SO THE CLOUDS MAY LINGER IN THE MTNS
BUT SRN AREAS SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR. MON NIGHT WILL BE MUCH
COOLER WITH LOWS IN THE 30S IN THE MOUNTAINS AND 40S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL PASS ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES ON TUESDAY...A
WILL RESULT IN SOME UPSLOPE CLOUDS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND PERHAPS A
FEW SHOWERS.

THEREAFTER...BLOCKING HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP FOR THE REST OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. THIS WILL MEAN THE REST OF THE WEEK AND WEEKEND
SHOULD BE DRY/SUNNY WITH WARM DAYS AND CHILLY NIGHTS. WENT HIGHER
THAN THE CONSENSUS FOR MAXES LATE WEEK/WEEKEND AND COLDER THAN
CONSENSUS AT NIGHT...SIMILAR TO THE MEX. MAY HAVE TO BUMP HIGHS
FOR FRI/SAT GOING FORWARD IF CURRENT WX PATTERN WITH WARM NWLY
FLOW SETS UP...COULD SEE A DAY IN THE 80S AROUND THAT TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MAINLY IFR/LIFR CONDS EXPECTED TONIGHT IN
STRATUS/FOG/SHOWERS. CONDS IMPROVE TO VFR MON MORNING AND CONTINUE
VFR THROUGH MON NIGHT.

LONG TERM...VFR IS EXPECTED TUE THROUGH FRIDAY MOST LOCATIONS.
EXCEPTION WILL BE TYPICAL RIVER VALLEY FOG LATE NIGHT/EARLY
MORNING HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS WILL REMAIN BLO SCA CRITERIA BUT SEAS WILL
BUILD LATER TONIGHT AND THROUGH MON NIGHT SO A SCA FOR HAZARDOUS
SEAS HAS BEEN ISSUED.

LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD DOMINATE THE WATERS TUE THROUGH
SAT WITH SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 3 AM MONDAY TO 6
     AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HANES



000
FXUS61 KGYX 212323 AAA
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
723 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION BY
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A SHOT OF COOLER AIR FOR TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. THIS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD
OVER THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A
A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND EXPECTED.

&&

.UPDATE...
ONLY MINOR CHANGES FOR THIS UPDATE INCLUDING TEMPERATURES...DEW
POINTS...AND PLACEMENT OF POPS PER MESOSCALE MODELS. ONLY A FEW
SHOWERS PERSISTING OVER NH AND THE WESTERN MAINE MOUNTAINS AS WELL
AS OFFSHORE. STRATUS REMAINS ENTRENCHED AND FOG IS BECOMING MORE
WIDESPREAD. ADDED DENSE FOG AND VISIBILITIES OF 1/4 SM AT TIMES IN
THE FORECAST. WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE DENSE FOG ADVISORY
OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE TONIGHT. IN ADVANCE
OF THE FRONT A VERY MOIST AIR MASS IS IN PLACE SO AREAS OF FOG IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TONIGHT. LATER TONIGHT SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD AND ALONG THE COLD FRONT. TOWARD
MORNING THE FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST AND DOWNSLOPING WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP ALLOWING THE SHOWERS TO END AND SOME
CLEARING TO TAKE PLACE OVER SOUTHERN AREAS. IN THE MTNS THE
CLOUDS WILL LINGER. WITH THE CLOUD COVER AND MOIST AIR IN PLACE
TEMPS WILL BE QUITE MILD AND USED A BLEND OF THE MODELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION WITH A DOWNSLOPING WEST
FLOW WHILE ALOFT AN UPPER TROF LINGERS ALLOWING CLOUDS AND MAYBE A
SHOWER JUST IN THE MTNS. DOWNSLOPING WILL HELP TEMPS OVER THE SRN
AREAS TO APPROACH 70 DEGREES.

MON NIGHT HIGH PRES CONTINUES TO SLOWLY BUILD EAST WITH THE LIGHT
DOWNSLOPING WINDS CONTINUING SO THE CLOUDS MAY LINGER IN THE MTNS
BUT SRN AREAS SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR. MON NIGHT WILL BE MUCH
COOLER WITH LOWS IN THE 30S IN THE MOUNTAINS AND 40S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL PASS ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES ON TUESDAY...A
WILL RESULT IN SOME UPSLOPE CLOUDS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND PERHAPS A
FEW SHOWERS.

THEREAFTER...BLOCKING HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP FOR THE REST OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. THIS WILL MEAN THE REST OF THE WEEK AND WEEKEND
SHOULD BE DRY/SUNNY WITH WARM DAYS AND CHILLY NIGHTS. WENT HIGHER
THAN THE CONSENSUS FOR MAXES LATE WEEK/WEEKEND AND COLDER THAN
CONSENSUS AT NIGHT...SIMILAR TO THE MEX. MAY HAVE TO BUMP HIGHS
FOR FRI/SAT GOING FORWARD IF CURRENT WX PATTERN WITH WARM NWLY
FLOW SETS UP...COULD SEE A DAY IN THE 80S AROUND THAT TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MAINLY IFR/LIFR CONDS EXPECTED TONIGHT IN
STRATUS/FOG/SHOWERS. CONDS IMPROVE TO VFR MON MORNING AND CONTINUE
VFR THROUGH MON NIGHT.

LONG TERM...VFR IS EXPECTED TUE THROUGH FRIDAY MOST LOCATIONS.
EXCEPTION WILL BE TYPICAL RIVER VALLEY FOG LATE NIGHT/EARLY
MORNING HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS WILL REMAIN BLO SCA CRITERIA BUT SEAS WILL
BUILD LATER TONIGHT AND THROUGH MON NIGHT SO A SCA FOR HAZARDOUS
SEAS HAS BEEN ISSUED.

LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD DOMINATE THE WATERS TUE THROUGH
SAT WITH SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 3 AM MONDAY TO 6
     AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HANES



000
FXUS61 KCAR 212238
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
638 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST THROUGH TONIGHT AND CROSS
THE AREA MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON
TUESDAY AND CREST OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
630 PM UPDATE...FOG HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE DOWNEAST AND COASTAL
AREAS AS A SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS BROUGHT FOG AND LOW CEILINGS
NORTHWARD. FURTHER NORTH CLOUD COVER AND A GOOD SOUTHERLY WIND HAS
KEPT THE BLYR MIXED. BACKED OFF ON THE SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
1/2 OF THE CWA AS THE FRONT AND BEST UPPER SUPPORT WELL W OF THE
CWA. LOW PRES OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST PER THE 21Z
SURFACE ANALYSIS WAS MOVING NNE. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE RESPONSIBLE
FOR SOME RAINFALL LATER THIS EVENING INTO EARLY MONDAY. COOLING
CLOUD TOPS PER THE IR SATELLITE IMAGERY COULD SUGGEST SOME
CONVECTION, ELEVATED AT BEST. THIS WILL BE MONITORED THIS EVENING.
A MILD NIGHT IS IN STORE UNTIL THE FRONT CROSSES THE REGION ON
MONDAY.

SREF AND GFS ENSM BRING UPWARDS OF AN INCH OF RNFL TO FAR SE
WASHINGTON COUNTY WITH SIG RNFL REACHING FAR SE AROOSTOOK COUNTY
OVRNGT (BEGINNING MID TO LATE EVE) WITH THE OPEN ATLC SFC LOW MOVG
TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA...WHILE OPNL 12Z GFS ...ECMWF AND CAN MODELS
ONLY GRAZE WASHINGTON COUNTY. FOR NOW WE TRY TO SPLIT THE
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THESE TWO CAMPS OF MODELS...REALIZING THAT WE
MAY INCUR SIG RNFL ERRORS OVR THE SE HLF OF THE FA IF EITHER OF
THE TWO SCENARIOS ARE CORRECT.

OTHERWISE...MODELS HAVE APPEARED TO BACK OFF OF SIG COLD FRONTAL
SHWR FROM INVADING MUCH OF NW ME PRIOR TO ERLY MON MORN...WITH
SHWRS SPREADING EWRD ACROSS THE REST OF NRN ME MON MORN INTO ERLY
AFTN. SUBSEQUENTLY...SOME PTNS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE FA MAY NOT
EXPERIENCE MUCH IN THE RNFL BEFORE A COLD FRONT DRIES THE REGION
OUT BY LATER MON AFTN. TEMPS WILL BE VERY MILD TNGT IN SRLY FLOW
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...THEN COOLER ON MON...SPCLY ACROSS THE NW
HLF OF THE FA WHICH WILL EXPERIENCE AN EARLIER COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH PERIOD BEGINNING WITH FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OFF TO THE EAST OF THE REGION WITH WEST TO NW FLOW TAKING
OVER ON THE BACK SIDE OF FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE MONDAY NIGHT. COLD
AIR ADVECTION WILL MAKE FOR COOLER OVERNIGHT LOWS COMPARED TO THE
PAST SEVERAL DAYS WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION MINUS THE COAST. ALL THE MODELS INDICATE
A WEAK DISTURBANCE AND FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH BRINGING A CHANCE OF
A ISOLATED SHOWER TUESDAY ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MAINE. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S NORTH AND
LOWER 60S SOUTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST TUESDAY
NIGHT BRINGING DECREASING CLOUDS WITH MODELED SOUNDINGS INDICATING
DRY AIR BUILDING IN. THIS COUPLED WITH WINDS DROPPING OFF WILL ALLOW
FOR LOWS TO GENERALLY DIP INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S NORTH
AND UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S SOUTH. MOVING INTO WEDNESDAY MODELS
HAVE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE. A
BIT OF RETURN FLOW WILL KICK IN AROUND THE SURFACE HIGH WITH WIND
BECOMING WEST TO SW THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ONE WORD DESCRIBES THE FORECAST DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...WOW!
UNSEASONABLY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WITH HEIGHTS UP TO 590 DCM
WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. AT MID WEEK TO THE
NORTHEAST U.S. BY SUNDAY.  THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR HIGH TEMPS 10-15
DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO FOR LATE SEPTEMBER.

THE ONE FLY IN THE OINTMENT IS A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WHICH MAY
BRING SOME CLOUDS TO NORTHEAST MAINE ON SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE N APPEAR TO BE SLOWLY
LOWERING TO MVFR CLGS FROM THE S LATE THIS AFTN...WHILE DOWNEAST
SITES ARE HANGING ON TO LOW MVFR. CONDITIONS WILL CONT TO LOWER
OVRNGT TO IFR/LIFR IN BKN-OVC ST FROM S TO N. SHWRS COULD ALSO
REDUCE VSBYS TO THE 3 TO 5 NM RANGE ATTMS OVRGNT. CONDITIONS THEN
IMPROVE TO VFR FROM SW TO NE BEHIND A COLD FRONT BEGINNING OVR
WRN DOWNEAST PTNS ERLY MON MORN THEN PROGRESSING TO FAR NRN TAF
SITES BY ERLY AFTN.

SHORT TERM: EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE FA.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE WATERS WILL BE BUILDING SWELL
FROM A LOW MOVG NE FROM OFF THE MID ATLC STATES TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA
BY MON MORN. WV HTS SHOULD MAX OUT DURG MON AFTN BEFORE SLOWLY
SUBSIDING AFTWRDS. SUBSEQUENTLY...WE ISSUED AN SCA FOR HAZ SEAS
FOR ALL OF MZS BEGINNING 12Z MON...CONTG AT LEAST TIL 12Z TUE. WE
ARE A LITTLE CONCERNED ABOUT HI SURF CONDITIONS IN THE MON AFTN TM
FRAME AS OPEN OCEAN WV HTS REACH CLOSE TO 10 FT...BUT THE FACT THAT
THE SWELL PD IS ARND 10 SEC RATHER THAN 15 SEC...AND THE PD OF
HIGHEST WVS ONLY LAST FOR ABOUT 6 HRS OFF OF HIGH TIDE...WE WILL
HOLD OFF ON ANY HIGH SURF HDLNS ATTM. OTHERWISE...VSBYS REDUCED
BY MARINE FOG AND GENERAL RNFL...SPCLY LATER TNGT OVR MZ050 IS A
SECONDARY CONCERN.

SHORT TERM: SCA FOR SEAS CONTINUES INTO MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING WITH SEAS GENERALLY 6 TO 7 FT DURING THIS PERIOD.
THIS IS DUE TO LONG PERIOD SWELL COMING FROM A SUBTROPICAL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM JUST OFFSHORE MOVING NE TONIGHT.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 8 AM MONDAY TO 8
     AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT/VJN
SHORT TERM...JORDAN
LONG TERM...OKULSKI
AVIATION...HEWITT/VJN/JORDAN
MARINE...HEWITT/VJN/JORDAN






000
FXUS61 KCAR 211959
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
359 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST THROUGH TONIGHT AND CROSS
THE AREA MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON
TUESDAY AND CREST OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
LATEST MODEL AND OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS SUPPORT THE IDEA THAT
RAINFALL TONIGHT WILL BE MSLY CONCENTRATED OVR SE AND FAR NW PTNS
OF THE FA TNGT. MORE AGGRESSIVE MODEL SOLUTIONS SUCH AS THE 12Z NAM...
SREF AND GFS ENSM BRING UPWARDS OF AN INCH OF RNFL TO FAR SE
WASHINGTON COUNTY WITH SIG RNFL REACHING FAR SE AROOSTOOK COUNTY
OVRNGT (BEGINNING MID TO LATE EVE) WITH THE OPEN ATLC SFC LOW MOVG
TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA...WHILE OPNL 12Z GFS ...ECMWF AND CAN MODELS ONLY
GRAZE WASHINGTON COUNTY. FOR NOW WE TRY TO SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE
BETWEEN THESE TWO CAMPS OF MODELS...REALIZING THAT WE MAY INCUR
SIG RNFL ERRORS OVR THE SE HLF OF THE FA IF EITHER OF THE TWO
SCENARIOS ARE CORRECT.

OTHERWISE...MODELS HAVE APPEARED TO BACK OFF OF SIG COLD FRONTAL
SHWR FROM INVADING MUCH OF NW ME PRIOR TO ERLY MON MORN...WITH
SHWRS SPREADING EWRD ACROSS THE REST OF NRN ME MON MORN INTO ERLY
AFTN. SUBSEQUENTLY...SOME PTNS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE FA MAY NOT
EXPERIENCE MUCH IN THE RNFL BEFORE A COLD FRONT DRIES THE REGION
OUT BY LATER MON AFTN. TEMPS WILL BE VERY MILD TNGT IN SRLY FLOW
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...THEN COOLER ON MON...SPCLY ACROSS THE NW
HLF OF THE FA WHICH WILL EXPERIENCE AN EARLIER COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH PERIOD BEGINNING WITH FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OFF TO THE EAST OF THE REGION WITH WEST TO NW FLOW TAKING
OVER ON THE BACK SIDE OF FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE MONDAY NIGHT. COLD
AIR ADVECTION WILL MAKE FOR COOLER OVERNIGHT LOWS COMPARED TO THE
PAST SEVERAL DAYS WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION MINUS THE COAST. ALL THE MODELS INDICATE
A WEAK DISTURBANCE AND FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH BRINGING A CHANCE OF
A ISOLATED SHOWER TUESDAY ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MAINE. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S NORTH AND
LOWER 60S SOUTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST TUESDAY
NIGHT BRINGING DECREASING CLOUDS WITH MODELED SOUNDINGS INDICATING
DRY AIR BUILDING IN. THIS COUPLED WITH WINDS DROPPING OFF WILL ALLOW
FOR LOWS TO GENERALLY DIP INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S NORTH
AND UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S SOUTH. MOVING INTO WEDNESDAY MODELS
HAVE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE. A
BIT OF RETURN FLOW WILL KICK IN AROUND THE SURFACE HIGH WITH WIND
BECOMING WEST TO SW THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ONE WORD DESCRIBES THE FORECAST DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...WOW!
UNSEASONABLY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WITH HEIGHTS UP TO 590 DCM
WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. AT MID WEEK TO THE
NORTHEAST U.S. BY SUNDAY.  THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR HIGH TEMPS 10-15
DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO FOR LATE SEPTEMBER.

THE ONE FLY IN THE OINTMENT IS A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WHICH MAY
BRING SOME CLOUDS TO NORTHEAST MAINE ON SATURDAY.
&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE N APPEAR TO BE SLOWLY
LOWERING TO MVFR CLGS FROM THE S LATE THIS AFTN...WHILE DOWNEAST
SITES ARE HANGING ON TO LOW MVFR. CONDITIONS WILL CONT TO LOWER
OVRNGT TO IFR/LIFR IN BKN-OVC ST FROM S TO N. SHWRS COULD ALSO
REDUCE VSBYS TO THE 3 TO 5 NM RANGE ATTMS OVRGNT. CONDITIONS THEN
IMPROVE TO VFR FROM SW TO NE BEHIND A COLD FRONT BEGINNING OVR
WRN DOWNEAST PTNS ERLY MON MORN THEN PROGRESSING TO FAR NRN TAF
SITES BY ERLY AFTN.

SHORT TERM: EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE FA.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE WATERS WILL BE BUILDING SWELL
FROM A LOW MOVG NE FROM OFF THE MID ATLC STATES TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA
BY MON MORN. WV HTS SHOULD MAX OUT DURG MON AFTN BEFORE SLOWLY
SUBSIDING AFTWRDS. SUBSEQUENTLY...WE ISSUED AN SCA FOR HAZ SEAS
FOR ALL OF MZS BEGINNING 12Z MON...CONTG AT LEAST TIL 12Z TUE. WE
ARE A LITTLE CONCERNED ABOUT HI SURF CONDITIONS IN THE MON AFTN TM
FRAME AS OPEN OCEAN WV HTS REACH CLOSE TO 10 FT...BUT THE FACT THAT
THE SWELL PD IS ARND 10 SEC RATHER THAN 15 SEC...AND THE PD OF
HIGHEST WVS ONLY LAST FOR ABOUT 6 HRS OFF OF HIGH TIDE...WE WILL
HOLD OFF ON ANY HIGH SURF HDLNS ATTM. OTHERWISE...VSBYS REDUCED
BY MARINE FOG AND GENERAL RNFL...SPCLY LATER TNGT OVR MZ050 IS A
SECONDARY CONCERN.

SHORT TERM: SCA FOR SEAS CONTINUES INTO MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING WITH SEAS GENERALLY 6 TO 7 FT DURING THIS PERIOD.
THIS IS DUE TO LONG PERIOD SWELL COMING FROM A SUBTROPICAL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM JUST OFFSHORE MOVING NE TONIGHT.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 8 AM MONDAY TO 8
     AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...JORDAN
LONG TERM...OKULSKI
AVIATION...VJN/JORDAN
MARINE...VJN/JORDAN










000
FXUS61 KCAR 211959
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
359 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST THROUGH TONIGHT AND CROSS
THE AREA MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON
TUESDAY AND CREST OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
LATEST MODEL AND OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS SUPPORT THE IDEA THAT
RAINFALL TONIGHT WILL BE MSLY CONCENTRATED OVR SE AND FAR NW PTNS
OF THE FA TNGT. MORE AGGRESSIVE MODEL SOLUTIONS SUCH AS THE 12Z NAM...
SREF AND GFS ENSM BRING UPWARDS OF AN INCH OF RNFL TO FAR SE
WASHINGTON COUNTY WITH SIG RNFL REACHING FAR SE AROOSTOOK COUNTY
OVRNGT (BEGINNING MID TO LATE EVE) WITH THE OPEN ATLC SFC LOW MOVG
TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA...WHILE OPNL 12Z GFS ...ECMWF AND CAN MODELS ONLY
GRAZE WASHINGTON COUNTY. FOR NOW WE TRY TO SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE
BETWEEN THESE TWO CAMPS OF MODELS...REALIZING THAT WE MAY INCUR
SIG RNFL ERRORS OVR THE SE HLF OF THE FA IF EITHER OF THE TWO
SCENARIOS ARE CORRECT.

OTHERWISE...MODELS HAVE APPEARED TO BACK OFF OF SIG COLD FRONTAL
SHWR FROM INVADING MUCH OF NW ME PRIOR TO ERLY MON MORN...WITH
SHWRS SPREADING EWRD ACROSS THE REST OF NRN ME MON MORN INTO ERLY
AFTN. SUBSEQUENTLY...SOME PTNS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE FA MAY NOT
EXPERIENCE MUCH IN THE RNFL BEFORE A COLD FRONT DRIES THE REGION
OUT BY LATER MON AFTN. TEMPS WILL BE VERY MILD TNGT IN SRLY FLOW
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...THEN COOLER ON MON...SPCLY ACROSS THE NW
HLF OF THE FA WHICH WILL EXPERIENCE AN EARLIER COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH PERIOD BEGINNING WITH FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OFF TO THE EAST OF THE REGION WITH WEST TO NW FLOW TAKING
OVER ON THE BACK SIDE OF FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE MONDAY NIGHT. COLD
AIR ADVECTION WILL MAKE FOR COOLER OVERNIGHT LOWS COMPARED TO THE
PAST SEVERAL DAYS WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION MINUS THE COAST. ALL THE MODELS INDICATE
A WEAK DISTURBANCE AND FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH BRINGING A CHANCE OF
A ISOLATED SHOWER TUESDAY ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MAINE. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S NORTH AND
LOWER 60S SOUTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST TUESDAY
NIGHT BRINGING DECREASING CLOUDS WITH MODELED SOUNDINGS INDICATING
DRY AIR BUILDING IN. THIS COUPLED WITH WINDS DROPPING OFF WILL ALLOW
FOR LOWS TO GENERALLY DIP INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S NORTH
AND UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S SOUTH. MOVING INTO WEDNESDAY MODELS
HAVE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE. A
BIT OF RETURN FLOW WILL KICK IN AROUND THE SURFACE HIGH WITH WIND
BECOMING WEST TO SW THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ONE WORD DESCRIBES THE FORECAST DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...WOW!
UNSEASONABLY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WITH HEIGHTS UP TO 590 DCM
WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. AT MID WEEK TO THE
NORTHEAST U.S. BY SUNDAY.  THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR HIGH TEMPS 10-15
DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO FOR LATE SEPTEMBER.

THE ONE FLY IN THE OINTMENT IS A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WHICH MAY
BRING SOME CLOUDS TO NORTHEAST MAINE ON SATURDAY.
&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE N APPEAR TO BE SLOWLY
LOWERING TO MVFR CLGS FROM THE S LATE THIS AFTN...WHILE DOWNEAST
SITES ARE HANGING ON TO LOW MVFR. CONDITIONS WILL CONT TO LOWER
OVRNGT TO IFR/LIFR IN BKN-OVC ST FROM S TO N. SHWRS COULD ALSO
REDUCE VSBYS TO THE 3 TO 5 NM RANGE ATTMS OVRGNT. CONDITIONS THEN
IMPROVE TO VFR FROM SW TO NE BEHIND A COLD FRONT BEGINNING OVR
WRN DOWNEAST PTNS ERLY MON MORN THEN PROGRESSING TO FAR NRN TAF
SITES BY ERLY AFTN.

SHORT TERM: EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE FA.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE WATERS WILL BE BUILDING SWELL
FROM A LOW MOVG NE FROM OFF THE MID ATLC STATES TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA
BY MON MORN. WV HTS SHOULD MAX OUT DURG MON AFTN BEFORE SLOWLY
SUBSIDING AFTWRDS. SUBSEQUENTLY...WE ISSUED AN SCA FOR HAZ SEAS
FOR ALL OF MZS BEGINNING 12Z MON...CONTG AT LEAST TIL 12Z TUE. WE
ARE A LITTLE CONCERNED ABOUT HI SURF CONDITIONS IN THE MON AFTN TM
FRAME AS OPEN OCEAN WV HTS REACH CLOSE TO 10 FT...BUT THE FACT THAT
THE SWELL PD IS ARND 10 SEC RATHER THAN 15 SEC...AND THE PD OF
HIGHEST WVS ONLY LAST FOR ABOUT 6 HRS OFF OF HIGH TIDE...WE WILL
HOLD OFF ON ANY HIGH SURF HDLNS ATTM. OTHERWISE...VSBYS REDUCED
BY MARINE FOG AND GENERAL RNFL...SPCLY LATER TNGT OVR MZ050 IS A
SECONDARY CONCERN.

SHORT TERM: SCA FOR SEAS CONTINUES INTO MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING WITH SEAS GENERALLY 6 TO 7 FT DURING THIS PERIOD.
THIS IS DUE TO LONG PERIOD SWELL COMING FROM A SUBTROPICAL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM JUST OFFSHORE MOVING NE TONIGHT.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 8 AM MONDAY TO 8
     AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...JORDAN
LONG TERM...OKULSKI
AVIATION...VJN/JORDAN
MARINE...VJN/JORDAN










000
FXUS61 KCAR 211959
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
359 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST THROUGH TONIGHT AND CROSS
THE AREA MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON
TUESDAY AND CREST OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
LATEST MODEL AND OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS SUPPORT THE IDEA THAT
RAINFALL TONIGHT WILL BE MSLY CONCENTRATED OVR SE AND FAR NW PTNS
OF THE FA TNGT. MORE AGGRESSIVE MODEL SOLUTIONS SUCH AS THE 12Z NAM...
SREF AND GFS ENSM BRING UPWARDS OF AN INCH OF RNFL TO FAR SE
WASHINGTON COUNTY WITH SIG RNFL REACHING FAR SE AROOSTOOK COUNTY
OVRNGT (BEGINNING MID TO LATE EVE) WITH THE OPEN ATLC SFC LOW MOVG
TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA...WHILE OPNL 12Z GFS ...ECMWF AND CAN MODELS ONLY
GRAZE WASHINGTON COUNTY. FOR NOW WE TRY TO SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE
BETWEEN THESE TWO CAMPS OF MODELS...REALIZING THAT WE MAY INCUR
SIG RNFL ERRORS OVR THE SE HLF OF THE FA IF EITHER OF THE TWO
SCENARIOS ARE CORRECT.

OTHERWISE...MODELS HAVE APPEARED TO BACK OFF OF SIG COLD FRONTAL
SHWR FROM INVADING MUCH OF NW ME PRIOR TO ERLY MON MORN...WITH
SHWRS SPREADING EWRD ACROSS THE REST OF NRN ME MON MORN INTO ERLY
AFTN. SUBSEQUENTLY...SOME PTNS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE FA MAY NOT
EXPERIENCE MUCH IN THE RNFL BEFORE A COLD FRONT DRIES THE REGION
OUT BY LATER MON AFTN. TEMPS WILL BE VERY MILD TNGT IN SRLY FLOW
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...THEN COOLER ON MON...SPCLY ACROSS THE NW
HLF OF THE FA WHICH WILL EXPERIENCE AN EARLIER COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH PERIOD BEGINNING WITH FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OFF TO THE EAST OF THE REGION WITH WEST TO NW FLOW TAKING
OVER ON THE BACK SIDE OF FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE MONDAY NIGHT. COLD
AIR ADVECTION WILL MAKE FOR COOLER OVERNIGHT LOWS COMPARED TO THE
PAST SEVERAL DAYS WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION MINUS THE COAST. ALL THE MODELS INDICATE
A WEAK DISTURBANCE AND FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH BRINGING A CHANCE OF
A ISOLATED SHOWER TUESDAY ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MAINE. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S NORTH AND
LOWER 60S SOUTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST TUESDAY
NIGHT BRINGING DECREASING CLOUDS WITH MODELED SOUNDINGS INDICATING
DRY AIR BUILDING IN. THIS COUPLED WITH WINDS DROPPING OFF WILL ALLOW
FOR LOWS TO GENERALLY DIP INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S NORTH
AND UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S SOUTH. MOVING INTO WEDNESDAY MODELS
HAVE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE. A
BIT OF RETURN FLOW WILL KICK IN AROUND THE SURFACE HIGH WITH WIND
BECOMING WEST TO SW THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ONE WORD DESCRIBES THE FORECAST DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...WOW!
UNSEASONABLY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WITH HEIGHTS UP TO 590 DCM
WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. AT MID WEEK TO THE
NORTHEAST U.S. BY SUNDAY.  THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR HIGH TEMPS 10-15
DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO FOR LATE SEPTEMBER.

THE ONE FLY IN THE OINTMENT IS A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WHICH MAY
BRING SOME CLOUDS TO NORTHEAST MAINE ON SATURDAY.
&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE N APPEAR TO BE SLOWLY
LOWERING TO MVFR CLGS FROM THE S LATE THIS AFTN...WHILE DOWNEAST
SITES ARE HANGING ON TO LOW MVFR. CONDITIONS WILL CONT TO LOWER
OVRNGT TO IFR/LIFR IN BKN-OVC ST FROM S TO N. SHWRS COULD ALSO
REDUCE VSBYS TO THE 3 TO 5 NM RANGE ATTMS OVRGNT. CONDITIONS THEN
IMPROVE TO VFR FROM SW TO NE BEHIND A COLD FRONT BEGINNING OVR
WRN DOWNEAST PTNS ERLY MON MORN THEN PROGRESSING TO FAR NRN TAF
SITES BY ERLY AFTN.

SHORT TERM: EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE FA.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE WATERS WILL BE BUILDING SWELL
FROM A LOW MOVG NE FROM OFF THE MID ATLC STATES TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA
BY MON MORN. WV HTS SHOULD MAX OUT DURG MON AFTN BEFORE SLOWLY
SUBSIDING AFTWRDS. SUBSEQUENTLY...WE ISSUED AN SCA FOR HAZ SEAS
FOR ALL OF MZS BEGINNING 12Z MON...CONTG AT LEAST TIL 12Z TUE. WE
ARE A LITTLE CONCERNED ABOUT HI SURF CONDITIONS IN THE MON AFTN TM
FRAME AS OPEN OCEAN WV HTS REACH CLOSE TO 10 FT...BUT THE FACT THAT
THE SWELL PD IS ARND 10 SEC RATHER THAN 15 SEC...AND THE PD OF
HIGHEST WVS ONLY LAST FOR ABOUT 6 HRS OFF OF HIGH TIDE...WE WILL
HOLD OFF ON ANY HIGH SURF HDLNS ATTM. OTHERWISE...VSBYS REDUCED
BY MARINE FOG AND GENERAL RNFL...SPCLY LATER TNGT OVR MZ050 IS A
SECONDARY CONCERN.

SHORT TERM: SCA FOR SEAS CONTINUES INTO MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING WITH SEAS GENERALLY 6 TO 7 FT DURING THIS PERIOD.
THIS IS DUE TO LONG PERIOD SWELL COMING FROM A SUBTROPICAL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM JUST OFFSHORE MOVING NE TONIGHT.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 8 AM MONDAY TO 8
     AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...JORDAN
LONG TERM...OKULSKI
AVIATION...VJN/JORDAN
MARINE...VJN/JORDAN










000
FXUS61 KCAR 211959
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
359 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST THROUGH TONIGHT AND CROSS
THE AREA MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON
TUESDAY AND CREST OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
LATEST MODEL AND OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS SUPPORT THE IDEA THAT
RAINFALL TONIGHT WILL BE MSLY CONCENTRATED OVR SE AND FAR NW PTNS
OF THE FA TNGT. MORE AGGRESSIVE MODEL SOLUTIONS SUCH AS THE 12Z NAM...
SREF AND GFS ENSM BRING UPWARDS OF AN INCH OF RNFL TO FAR SE
WASHINGTON COUNTY WITH SIG RNFL REACHING FAR SE AROOSTOOK COUNTY
OVRNGT (BEGINNING MID TO LATE EVE) WITH THE OPEN ATLC SFC LOW MOVG
TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA...WHILE OPNL 12Z GFS ...ECMWF AND CAN MODELS ONLY
GRAZE WASHINGTON COUNTY. FOR NOW WE TRY TO SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE
BETWEEN THESE TWO CAMPS OF MODELS...REALIZING THAT WE MAY INCUR
SIG RNFL ERRORS OVR THE SE HLF OF THE FA IF EITHER OF THE TWO
SCENARIOS ARE CORRECT.

OTHERWISE...MODELS HAVE APPEARED TO BACK OFF OF SIG COLD FRONTAL
SHWR FROM INVADING MUCH OF NW ME PRIOR TO ERLY MON MORN...WITH
SHWRS SPREADING EWRD ACROSS THE REST OF NRN ME MON MORN INTO ERLY
AFTN. SUBSEQUENTLY...SOME PTNS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE FA MAY NOT
EXPERIENCE MUCH IN THE RNFL BEFORE A COLD FRONT DRIES THE REGION
OUT BY LATER MON AFTN. TEMPS WILL BE VERY MILD TNGT IN SRLY FLOW
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...THEN COOLER ON MON...SPCLY ACROSS THE NW
HLF OF THE FA WHICH WILL EXPERIENCE AN EARLIER COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH PERIOD BEGINNING WITH FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OFF TO THE EAST OF THE REGION WITH WEST TO NW FLOW TAKING
OVER ON THE BACK SIDE OF FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE MONDAY NIGHT. COLD
AIR ADVECTION WILL MAKE FOR COOLER OVERNIGHT LOWS COMPARED TO THE
PAST SEVERAL DAYS WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION MINUS THE COAST. ALL THE MODELS INDICATE
A WEAK DISTURBANCE AND FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH BRINGING A CHANCE OF
A ISOLATED SHOWER TUESDAY ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MAINE. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S NORTH AND
LOWER 60S SOUTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST TUESDAY
NIGHT BRINGING DECREASING CLOUDS WITH MODELED SOUNDINGS INDICATING
DRY AIR BUILDING IN. THIS COUPLED WITH WINDS DROPPING OFF WILL ALLOW
FOR LOWS TO GENERALLY DIP INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S NORTH
AND UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S SOUTH. MOVING INTO WEDNESDAY MODELS
HAVE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE. A
BIT OF RETURN FLOW WILL KICK IN AROUND THE SURFACE HIGH WITH WIND
BECOMING WEST TO SW THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ONE WORD DESCRIBES THE FORECAST DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...WOW!
UNSEASONABLY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WITH HEIGHTS UP TO 590 DCM
WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. AT MID WEEK TO THE
NORTHEAST U.S. BY SUNDAY.  THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR HIGH TEMPS 10-15
DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO FOR LATE SEPTEMBER.

THE ONE FLY IN THE OINTMENT IS A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WHICH MAY
BRING SOME CLOUDS TO NORTHEAST MAINE ON SATURDAY.
&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE N APPEAR TO BE SLOWLY
LOWERING TO MVFR CLGS FROM THE S LATE THIS AFTN...WHILE DOWNEAST
SITES ARE HANGING ON TO LOW MVFR. CONDITIONS WILL CONT TO LOWER
OVRNGT TO IFR/LIFR IN BKN-OVC ST FROM S TO N. SHWRS COULD ALSO
REDUCE VSBYS TO THE 3 TO 5 NM RANGE ATTMS OVRGNT. CONDITIONS THEN
IMPROVE TO VFR FROM SW TO NE BEHIND A COLD FRONT BEGINNING OVR
WRN DOWNEAST PTNS ERLY MON MORN THEN PROGRESSING TO FAR NRN TAF
SITES BY ERLY AFTN.

SHORT TERM: EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE FA.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE WATERS WILL BE BUILDING SWELL
FROM A LOW MOVG NE FROM OFF THE MID ATLC STATES TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA
BY MON MORN. WV HTS SHOULD MAX OUT DURG MON AFTN BEFORE SLOWLY
SUBSIDING AFTWRDS. SUBSEQUENTLY...WE ISSUED AN SCA FOR HAZ SEAS
FOR ALL OF MZS BEGINNING 12Z MON...CONTG AT LEAST TIL 12Z TUE. WE
ARE A LITTLE CONCERNED ABOUT HI SURF CONDITIONS IN THE MON AFTN TM
FRAME AS OPEN OCEAN WV HTS REACH CLOSE TO 10 FT...BUT THE FACT THAT
THE SWELL PD IS ARND 10 SEC RATHER THAN 15 SEC...AND THE PD OF
HIGHEST WVS ONLY LAST FOR ABOUT 6 HRS OFF OF HIGH TIDE...WE WILL
HOLD OFF ON ANY HIGH SURF HDLNS ATTM. OTHERWISE...VSBYS REDUCED
BY MARINE FOG AND GENERAL RNFL...SPCLY LATER TNGT OVR MZ050 IS A
SECONDARY CONCERN.

SHORT TERM: SCA FOR SEAS CONTINUES INTO MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING WITH SEAS GENERALLY 6 TO 7 FT DURING THIS PERIOD.
THIS IS DUE TO LONG PERIOD SWELL COMING FROM A SUBTROPICAL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM JUST OFFSHORE MOVING NE TONIGHT.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 8 AM MONDAY TO 8
     AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...JORDAN
LONG TERM...OKULSKI
AVIATION...VJN/JORDAN
MARINE...VJN/JORDAN










000
FXUS61 KGYX 211929
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
329 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION BY
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A SHOT OF COOLER AIR FOR TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. THIS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD
OVER THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A
A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND EXPECTED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE TONIGHT. IN ADVANCE
OF THE FRONT A VERY MOIST AIR MASS IS IN PLACE SO AREAS OF FOG IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TONIGHT. LATER TONIGHT SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD AND ALONG THE COLD FRONT. TOWARD
MORNING THE FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST AND DOWSLOPING WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP ALLOWING THE SHOWERS TO END AND SOME
CLEARING TO TAKE PLACE OVER SOUTHERN AREAS. IN TH MTNS THE CLOUDS
WILL LINGER. WITH THE CLOUD COVER AND MOIST AIR IN PLACE TEMPS
WILL BE QUITE MILD AND USED A BLEND OF THE MODELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION WITH A DOWNSLOPING WEST
FLOW WHILE ALOFT AN UPPER TROF LINGERS ALLOWING CLOUDS AND MAYBE A
SHOWER JUST IN THE MTNS. DOWNSLOPING WILL HELP TEMPS OVER THE SRN
AREAS TO APPROACH 70 DEGREES.

MON NIGHT HIGH PRES CONTINUES TO SLOWLY BUILD EAST WITH THE LIGHT
DOWNSLOPING WINDS CONTINUING SO THE CLOUDS MAY LINGER IN THE MTNS
BUT SRN AREAS SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR. MON NIGHT WILL BE MUCH
COOLER WITH LOWS IN THE 30S IN THE MOUNTAINS AND 40S ELSEWHERE.
&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL PASS ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES ON TUESDAY...A
WILL RESULT IN SOME UPSLOPE CLOUDS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND PERHAPS A
FEW SHOWERS.

THEREAFTER...BLOCKING HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP FOR THE REST OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. THIS WILL MEAN THE REST OF THE WEEK AND WEEKEND
SHOULD BE DRY/SUNNY WITH WARM DAYS AND CHILLY NIGHTS. WENT HIGHER
THAN THE CONSENSUS FOR MAXES LATE WEEK/WEEKEND AND COLDER THAN
CONSENSUS AT NIGHT...SIMILAR TO THE MEX. MAY HAVE TO BUMP HIGHS
FOR FRI/SAT GOING FORWARD IF CURRENT WX PATTERN WITH WARM NWLY
FLOW SETS UP...COULD SEE A DAY IN THE 80S AROUND THAT TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MAINLY IFR/LIFR CONDS EXPECTED TONIGHT IN
STRATUS/FOG/SHOWERS. CONDS IMPROVE TO VFR MON MORNING AND CONTINUE
VFR THROUGH MON NIGHT.

LONG TERM...VFR IS EXPECTED TUE THROUGH FRIDAY MOST LOCATIONS.
EXCEPTION WILL BE TYPICAL RIVER VALLEY FOG LATE NIGHT/EARLY
MORNING HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS WILL REMAIN BLO SCA CRIT BUT SEAS WILL BUILD
LATER TONIGHT AND THROUGH MON NIGHT SO A SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS
HAS BEEN ISSUED.

LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD DOMINATE THE WATERS TUE THROUGH
SAT WITH SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 3 AM MONDAY TO 6
     AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KGYX 211929
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
329 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION BY
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A SHOT OF COOLER AIR FOR TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. THIS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD
OVER THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A
A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND EXPECTED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE TONIGHT. IN ADVANCE
OF THE FRONT A VERY MOIST AIR MASS IS IN PLACE SO AREAS OF FOG IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TONIGHT. LATER TONIGHT SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD AND ALONG THE COLD FRONT. TOWARD
MORNING THE FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST AND DOWSLOPING WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP ALLOWING THE SHOWERS TO END AND SOME
CLEARING TO TAKE PLACE OVER SOUTHERN AREAS. IN TH MTNS THE CLOUDS
WILL LINGER. WITH THE CLOUD COVER AND MOIST AIR IN PLACE TEMPS
WILL BE QUITE MILD AND USED A BLEND OF THE MODELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION WITH A DOWNSLOPING WEST
FLOW WHILE ALOFT AN UPPER TROF LINGERS ALLOWING CLOUDS AND MAYBE A
SHOWER JUST IN THE MTNS. DOWNSLOPING WILL HELP TEMPS OVER THE SRN
AREAS TO APPROACH 70 DEGREES.

MON NIGHT HIGH PRES CONTINUES TO SLOWLY BUILD EAST WITH THE LIGHT
DOWNSLOPING WINDS CONTINUING SO THE CLOUDS MAY LINGER IN THE MTNS
BUT SRN AREAS SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR. MON NIGHT WILL BE MUCH
COOLER WITH LOWS IN THE 30S IN THE MOUNTAINS AND 40S ELSEWHERE.
&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL PASS ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES ON TUESDAY...A
WILL RESULT IN SOME UPSLOPE CLOUDS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND PERHAPS A
FEW SHOWERS.

THEREAFTER...BLOCKING HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP FOR THE REST OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. THIS WILL MEAN THE REST OF THE WEEK AND WEEKEND
SHOULD BE DRY/SUNNY WITH WARM DAYS AND CHILLY NIGHTS. WENT HIGHER
THAN THE CONSENSUS FOR MAXES LATE WEEK/WEEKEND AND COLDER THAN
CONSENSUS AT NIGHT...SIMILAR TO THE MEX. MAY HAVE TO BUMP HIGHS
FOR FRI/SAT GOING FORWARD IF CURRENT WX PATTERN WITH WARM NWLY
FLOW SETS UP...COULD SEE A DAY IN THE 80S AROUND THAT TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MAINLY IFR/LIFR CONDS EXPECTED TONIGHT IN
STRATUS/FOG/SHOWERS. CONDS IMPROVE TO VFR MON MORNING AND CONTINUE
VFR THROUGH MON NIGHT.

LONG TERM...VFR IS EXPECTED TUE THROUGH FRIDAY MOST LOCATIONS.
EXCEPTION WILL BE TYPICAL RIVER VALLEY FOG LATE NIGHT/EARLY
MORNING HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS WILL REMAIN BLO SCA CRIT BUT SEAS WILL BUILD
LATER TONIGHT AND THROUGH MON NIGHT SO A SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS
HAS BEEN ISSUED.

LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD DOMINATE THE WATERS TUE THROUGH
SAT WITH SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 3 AM MONDAY TO 6
     AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KCAR 211605
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1205 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST THROUGH TONIGHT AND CROSS
THE AREA MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON
TUESDAY AND CREST OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1145 AM UPDATE: BASED ON LATEST SFC OBS...WE NEEDED TO RAISE HI
TEMPS A FEW DEG ACROSS NRN PTNS OF THE FA. SAT IMAGERY DOES SHOW
MORE IN THE WAY OF CLDNSS MOVG INTO NRN ME FROM QB PROV CAN...
SO THE RATE OF TEMP RISE SHOULD SLOW OVR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HRS.
FCST HRLY TEMPS WERE MODIFIED BASED ON THESE CHGS. OTHERWISE...
SKY AND POP GRIDS WERE UNCHGD THIS UPDATE.

ORGNL DISC: A SUB-TROPICAL LOW IS EVIDENT ON SATELLITE PICTURE
OFF THE CAROLINA COAST EARLY THIS MORNING. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE
TO LIFT NE TODAY AND PASS ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE THIS EVE AND
INTO THE GULF OF ST LAWRENCE BY 12Z MON. THE LOW WILL CAUSE A
SURGE OF MOISTURE TO LIFT INTO MAINE TODAY WITH PRECIPITABLE H20
VALUES NEAR 1.7 INCHES WHICH IS 2-3 SD ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR. AT THE SAME TIME A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL
QUEBEC AND THE GREAT LAKES WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST. THE FRONT WILL
BE SLOWED BY THE OFFSHORE LOW AND BECAUSE THE FRONT IS NEARLY
PARALLEL TO THE SSW FLOW ALOFT. THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY
MOVE EAST ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT...AND SHOULD BE ON A LINE FROM
ABOUT CARIBOU TO BAR HARBOR BY 12Z MON.

RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW MOVING UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL
MOSTLY REMAIN OFFSHORE TODAY.  MUCH OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY OUT AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEST OF THE AREA.  THE BEST
CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS FAR WESTERN MAINE THIS AFTERNOON AS
THE COLD FRONT INCHES CLOSER...AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE DOWN EAST
REGION ASSOCIATED WITH A LEAD SHORTWAVE AHEAD OF THE COASTAL LOW.
THERE MAYBE JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORM IN PARTS OF CENTRAL MAINE. A VERY MILD AND HUMID DAY
IS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 70F...EXCEPT COOLER
ALONG THE COAST DUE TO THE ONSHORE FLOW. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS
WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY WORKS EAST ACROSS
THE AREA. IT WILL BE ANOTHER MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE
50S. A FEW SPOTS IN THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS WHERE THE COLD FRONT
WILL COME THROUGH EARLIER IN THE NIGHT MAY DROP INTO THE UPPER 40S
BY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL BE CONSOLIDATING OVER THE GULF OF SAINT LAWRENCE
EARLY MONDAY AND MOVING AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST AS A COLD FRONT
PUSHES ACROSS OUR REGION. A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE SCATTERED ACROSS
THE NORTH AS THIS FRONT MOVES THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. OTHERWISE,
MONDAY WILL BEGIN MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE NORTH THEN BECOME
PARTLY SUNNY. DOWNEAST WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY. THE DAY
WILL BEGIN A BIT HUMID AND MILD WITH DRIER COOLER AIR COMING IN
BEHIND THE FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON. MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE NORTH AS SOME MOISTURE
POOLED IN THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS. DOWNEAST WILL BE MOSTLY
SUNNY. THE DAY MAY END UP MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION AS
THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST AND AWAY AND COOL DRY HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING A
CLEAR FROSTY NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL GIVE WAY TO A
SUNNY DAY ON WEDNESDAY WITH A COLD START, BUT SOME MODERATION
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH SLIDES SOUTH OF THE AREA AND A
RETURN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW COMES IN BEHIND THE HIGH. LONG RANGE
MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION LATE IN THE WEEK WITH A WARM RETURN FLOW OF AIR
COMING IN BEHIND THE HIGH. THURSDAY WILL BE SUNNY WITH A WARMER
AFTERNOON. A BACK DOOR COOL FRONT WILL NUDGE SOME COOLER DRIER AIR
INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY. THE FRONT SHOULD THEN PUSH BACK TO THE
NORTH AND EAST ON SATURDAY AS THE HIGH ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC
REASSERTS ITSELF AND PUSHES WARMER AIR BACK INTO OUR AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MOSTLY MVFR WITH POCKETS OF IFR POSSIBLE THIS MORNING.
MOSTLY MVFR/VFR FROM LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING. AREAS OF IFR IN LOW STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE ONLY POSSIBLE EXCEPTION MAY BE PATCHY FOG
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SEAS 4 TO 5 FT ON THE COASTAL WATERS EARLY THIS
MORNING. THE TREND IS FOR SUBSIDING SEAS AND WILL CANCEL THE SCA
WITH THIS UPDATE. ANOTHER SCA MAYBE REQUIRED LATER TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: WINDS MAY GUST UP TO 25 KT MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING IN GUSTY WINDS AHEAD OF APPROACHING HIGH
PRESSURE. OTHERWISE, WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD BE BELOW SCA THROUGH
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...VJN/BLOOMER
MARINE...VJN/BLOOMER









000
FXUS61 KCAR 211605
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1205 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST THROUGH TONIGHT AND CROSS
THE AREA MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON
TUESDAY AND CREST OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1145 AM UPDATE: BASED ON LATEST SFC OBS...WE NEEDED TO RAISE HI
TEMPS A FEW DEG ACROSS NRN PTNS OF THE FA. SAT IMAGERY DOES SHOW
MORE IN THE WAY OF CLDNSS MOVG INTO NRN ME FROM QB PROV CAN...
SO THE RATE OF TEMP RISE SHOULD SLOW OVR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HRS.
FCST HRLY TEMPS WERE MODIFIED BASED ON THESE CHGS. OTHERWISE...
SKY AND POP GRIDS WERE UNCHGD THIS UPDATE.

ORGNL DISC: A SUB-TROPICAL LOW IS EVIDENT ON SATELLITE PICTURE
OFF THE CAROLINA COAST EARLY THIS MORNING. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE
TO LIFT NE TODAY AND PASS ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE THIS EVE AND
INTO THE GULF OF ST LAWRENCE BY 12Z MON. THE LOW WILL CAUSE A
SURGE OF MOISTURE TO LIFT INTO MAINE TODAY WITH PRECIPITABLE H20
VALUES NEAR 1.7 INCHES WHICH IS 2-3 SD ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR. AT THE SAME TIME A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL
QUEBEC AND THE GREAT LAKES WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST. THE FRONT WILL
BE SLOWED BY THE OFFSHORE LOW AND BECAUSE THE FRONT IS NEARLY
PARALLEL TO THE SSW FLOW ALOFT. THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY
MOVE EAST ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT...AND SHOULD BE ON A LINE FROM
ABOUT CARIBOU TO BAR HARBOR BY 12Z MON.

RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW MOVING UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL
MOSTLY REMAIN OFFSHORE TODAY.  MUCH OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY OUT AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEST OF THE AREA.  THE BEST
CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS FAR WESTERN MAINE THIS AFTERNOON AS
THE COLD FRONT INCHES CLOSER...AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE DOWN EAST
REGION ASSOCIATED WITH A LEAD SHORTWAVE AHEAD OF THE COASTAL LOW.
THERE MAYBE JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORM IN PARTS OF CENTRAL MAINE. A VERY MILD AND HUMID DAY
IS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 70F...EXCEPT COOLER
ALONG THE COAST DUE TO THE ONSHORE FLOW. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS
WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY WORKS EAST ACROSS
THE AREA. IT WILL BE ANOTHER MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE
50S. A FEW SPOTS IN THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS WHERE THE COLD FRONT
WILL COME THROUGH EARLIER IN THE NIGHT MAY DROP INTO THE UPPER 40S
BY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL BE CONSOLIDATING OVER THE GULF OF SAINT LAWRENCE
EARLY MONDAY AND MOVING AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST AS A COLD FRONT
PUSHES ACROSS OUR REGION. A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE SCATTERED ACROSS
THE NORTH AS THIS FRONT MOVES THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. OTHERWISE,
MONDAY WILL BEGIN MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE NORTH THEN BECOME
PARTLY SUNNY. DOWNEAST WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY. THE DAY
WILL BEGIN A BIT HUMID AND MILD WITH DRIER COOLER AIR COMING IN
BEHIND THE FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON. MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE NORTH AS SOME MOISTURE
POOLED IN THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS. DOWNEAST WILL BE MOSTLY
SUNNY. THE DAY MAY END UP MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION AS
THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST AND AWAY AND COOL DRY HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING A
CLEAR FROSTY NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL GIVE WAY TO A
SUNNY DAY ON WEDNESDAY WITH A COLD START, BUT SOME MODERATION
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH SLIDES SOUTH OF THE AREA AND A
RETURN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW COMES IN BEHIND THE HIGH. LONG RANGE
MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION LATE IN THE WEEK WITH A WARM RETURN FLOW OF AIR
COMING IN BEHIND THE HIGH. THURSDAY WILL BE SUNNY WITH A WARMER
AFTERNOON. A BACK DOOR COOL FRONT WILL NUDGE SOME COOLER DRIER AIR
INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY. THE FRONT SHOULD THEN PUSH BACK TO THE
NORTH AND EAST ON SATURDAY AS THE HIGH ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC
REASSERTS ITSELF AND PUSHES WARMER AIR BACK INTO OUR AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MOSTLY MVFR WITH POCKETS OF IFR POSSIBLE THIS MORNING.
MOSTLY MVFR/VFR FROM LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING. AREAS OF IFR IN LOW STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE ONLY POSSIBLE EXCEPTION MAY BE PATCHY FOG
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SEAS 4 TO 5 FT ON THE COASTAL WATERS EARLY THIS
MORNING. THE TREND IS FOR SUBSIDING SEAS AND WILL CANCEL THE SCA
WITH THIS UPDATE. ANOTHER SCA MAYBE REQUIRED LATER TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: WINDS MAY GUST UP TO 25 KT MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING IN GUSTY WINDS AHEAD OF APPROACHING HIGH
PRESSURE. OTHERWISE, WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD BE BELOW SCA THROUGH
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...VJN/BLOOMER
MARINE...VJN/BLOOMER










000
FXUS61 KGYX 211402
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1002 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC WILL DRAG A TRAILING COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE REGION LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL PROVIDE LINGERING
CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF MOUNTAIN SHOWERS ON MONDAY. A SECOND SURGE
OF COOL AIR MOVES IN ON TUESDAY AND MAY SET OFF A FEW SHOWERS IN
THE MOUNTAINS. AFTER A COOL SHOT OF AIR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR SOUTH INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND AT THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
10 AM...VISIBLE SAT PIX SHOWS SUNNY SKIES ACROSS NRN NH AND WRN ME
ATTM SO MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO CLOUD COVER AND DROPPED POPS TO ZERO TO
REFLECT THESE CONDS FOR NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. OVER SOUTHERN AND
COASTAL AREAS MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS TO REFLECT LATEST TRENDS.
MINOR TWEAKS WERE MADE TO TEMPS BASED ON LATEST OBS. NO OTHER
CHANGES ATTM.

PREV DISC...
AT 06Z...A 1000 MILLIBAR LOW WAS SITUATED OVER
WESTERN QUEBEC WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES. A STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW PRECEDED THIS BOUNDARY
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. WE`LL SEE VARIABLE CLOUDS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA TODAY IN ADVANCE OF THIS BOUNDARY. RADAR MOSAIC SHOWED
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THAT WILL CROSS THE
COASTAL PLAIN THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...VARIABLE CLOUDS WITH AN
INCREASING CHANCE FOR CONVECTION THROUGH THE DAY WITH APPROACH OF
FRONT AND DAYTIME HEATING THAT WARMS TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA TONIGHT AND EXITS THE COAST BY MORNING
ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER. ANOTHER
MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60. ON MONDAY...WE`LL
SEE LINGERING CLOUDS WITH THE UPPER TROUGH ALONG WITH THE CHANCE
FOR A SHOWER ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. HIGH WILL RANGE FROM 50S
IN THE MOUNTAINS...TO NEAR 70 AT THE COAST WHERE WE`LL SEE THE
MOST SUNSHINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE 500MB TROUGH THAT MOVES THROUGH AREA TUE INTO WED...WILL BE
THE LAST WE SEE THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS LARGE SCALE
RIDGINGDEVELOPS ACROSS ALL BUT THE WEST COAST OF NOAM...WITH THE
RIDGE PUSHING AS FAR N AS JAMES BAY BY THE END OF THE WEEK...WHICH
WILL LEAD TO AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SEVERAL DAYS OF ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS THU INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

INITIALLY...WILL START OUT WITH A BIT OF COOLER AIR MON NIGHT AND
A A SECOND SURGE OF COOLER AIR TUE AS 500MB TROUGH AXIS SWINGS
THRU. IT COULD SET OFF A FEW SHOWERS IN THE MTNS TUE....AND HIGHS
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S TUE AND WED WITH LOWS IN THE MID 30S
N TO MID 40S S. AFTER THIS THE LARGE SCALE RIDGE BUILDS AND
PERSISTENT WESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPLY WARM AIR TO THE
REGION...WITH 850MB TEMPS IN THE 10-15C RANGE. THIS SHOULD
TRANSLATE TO HIGHS IN THE 70S ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA /NEAR 80 IN
INTERIOR SRN NH AND SW ME/ AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO
MID 50S. SKIES WILL BE MAINLY SUNNY AND POPS 10 PERCENT OR LESS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL ADVECT
FOG AND LOW CLOUDS INTO THE AREA TODAY WITH AREAS OF MVFR...AND
LCL IFR THIS MORNING. EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR TONIGHT WITH LCL
IFR...THEN BECOMING VFR MONDAY WITH SCT MVFR IN SHOWERS.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR...OTHER THAN VLY FOG...TUE THRU THU.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KT
AND SEAS NEAR 5 FT EXPECTED TODAY...THEN WINDS AND SEAS WILL DROP
BELOW SCA TONIGHT.

LONG TERM...SEAS FROM PRIOR PERSISTENT SW FLOW WILL START AT 5-6
FT MON NIGHT...BUT NW FLOW WILL KNOCK THESE BACK THRU TUE...AND
THEN LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW PERSISTS THRU THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ150-
     152-154.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KGYX 211402
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1002 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC WILL DRAG A TRAILING COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE REGION LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL PROVIDE LINGERING
CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF MOUNTAIN SHOWERS ON MONDAY. A SECOND SURGE
OF COOL AIR MOVES IN ON TUESDAY AND MAY SET OFF A FEW SHOWERS IN
THE MOUNTAINS. AFTER A COOL SHOT OF AIR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR SOUTH INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND AT THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
10 AM...VISIBLE SAT PIX SHOWS SUNNY SKIES ACROSS NRN NH AND WRN ME
ATTM SO MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO CLOUD COVER AND DROPPED POPS TO ZERO TO
REFLECT THESE CONDS FOR NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. OVER SOUTHERN AND
COASTAL AREAS MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS TO REFLECT LATEST TRENDS.
MINOR TWEAKS WERE MADE TO TEMPS BASED ON LATEST OBS. NO OTHER
CHANGES ATTM.

PREV DISC...
AT 06Z...A 1000 MILLIBAR LOW WAS SITUATED OVER
WESTERN QUEBEC WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES. A STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW PRECEDED THIS BOUNDARY
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. WE`LL SEE VARIABLE CLOUDS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA TODAY IN ADVANCE OF THIS BOUNDARY. RADAR MOSAIC SHOWED
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THAT WILL CROSS THE
COASTAL PLAIN THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...VARIABLE CLOUDS WITH AN
INCREASING CHANCE FOR CONVECTION THROUGH THE DAY WITH APPROACH OF
FRONT AND DAYTIME HEATING THAT WARMS TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA TONIGHT AND EXITS THE COAST BY MORNING
ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER. ANOTHER
MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60. ON MONDAY...WE`LL
SEE LINGERING CLOUDS WITH THE UPPER TROUGH ALONG WITH THE CHANCE
FOR A SHOWER ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. HIGH WILL RANGE FROM 50S
IN THE MOUNTAINS...TO NEAR 70 AT THE COAST WHERE WE`LL SEE THE
MOST SUNSHINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE 500MB TROUGH THAT MOVES THROUGH AREA TUE INTO WED...WILL BE
THE LAST WE SEE THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS LARGE SCALE
RIDGINGDEVELOPS ACROSS ALL BUT THE WEST COAST OF NOAM...WITH THE
RIDGE PUSHING AS FAR N AS JAMES BAY BY THE END OF THE WEEK...WHICH
WILL LEAD TO AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SEVERAL DAYS OF ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS THU INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

INITIALLY...WILL START OUT WITH A BIT OF COOLER AIR MON NIGHT AND
A A SECOND SURGE OF COOLER AIR TUE AS 500MB TROUGH AXIS SWINGS
THRU. IT COULD SET OFF A FEW SHOWERS IN THE MTNS TUE....AND HIGHS
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S TUE AND WED WITH LOWS IN THE MID 30S
N TO MID 40S S. AFTER THIS THE LARGE SCALE RIDGE BUILDS AND
PERSISTENT WESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPLY WARM AIR TO THE
REGION...WITH 850MB TEMPS IN THE 10-15C RANGE. THIS SHOULD
TRANSLATE TO HIGHS IN THE 70S ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA /NEAR 80 IN
INTERIOR SRN NH AND SW ME/ AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO
MID 50S. SKIES WILL BE MAINLY SUNNY AND POPS 10 PERCENT OR LESS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL ADVECT
FOG AND LOW CLOUDS INTO THE AREA TODAY WITH AREAS OF MVFR...AND
LCL IFR THIS MORNING. EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR TONIGHT WITH LCL
IFR...THEN BECOMING VFR MONDAY WITH SCT MVFR IN SHOWERS.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR...OTHER THAN VLY FOG...TUE THRU THU.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KT
AND SEAS NEAR 5 FT EXPECTED TODAY...THEN WINDS AND SEAS WILL DROP
BELOW SCA TONIGHT.

LONG TERM...SEAS FROM PRIOR PERSISTENT SW FLOW WILL START AT 5-6
FT MON NIGHT...BUT NW FLOW WILL KNOCK THESE BACK THRU TUE...AND
THEN LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW PERSISTS THRU THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ150-
     152-154.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KCAR 211358
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
958 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST THROUGH TONIGHT AND CROSS
THE AREA MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON
TUESDAY AND CREST OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
935 AM UPDATE: CLD CVR AND POPS WERE UPDATED FOR TDY INTO MON.
SAT...RADAR AND MODEL TRENDS CONT TO SUPPORT THE IDEA OF TWO AREAS
OF RNFL TO EVOLVE...ONE AREA FOR DOWNEAST AREAS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE NRN PTN OF THE RN SHIELD FOR LATE TODAY THRU TNGT WITH A
SUBTROPICAL LIKE LOW PRES SYSTEM MOVG NE FROM OFF THE MID ATLC
STATES. THE OTHER AREA OF SHWRS WILL AFFECT NW PTNS OF THE FA
LATER TNGT...AND THEN MOVG E TO AFFECT MSLY NERN PTNS OF THE FA
MON MORN.

MEANWHILE...SKIES HAVE BECOME PTLY TO MSLY SUNNY ACROSS MOST OF
THE FA THIS MORN...WITH SCT SHWRS SHWRS OVR DOWNEAST AREAS. ALL OF
THESE TRENDS ALG WITH LATEST OBSVD TEMPS HAVE BEEN INCLUDED WITH
THIS UPDATE. WITH MORE SUNSHINE THEN PREV XPCTD TDY (WHICH IS AN
OPPOSITE TREND FROM YSTDY ATTM)...TEMPS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED
IN THE EVENT WE NEED TO BUMP UP HI TEMPS THIS AFTN FOR THE NEXT
UPDATE.

ORGNL DISC: A SUB-TROPICAL LOW IS EVIDENT ON SATELLITE PICTURE
OFF THE CAROLINA COAST EARLY THIS MORNING. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE
TO LIFT NE TODAY AND PASS ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE THIS EVE AND
INTO THE GULF OF ST LAWRENCE BY 12Z MON. THE LOW WILL CAUSE A
SURGE OF MOISTURE TO LIFT INTO MAINE TODAY WITH PRECIPITABLE H20
VALUES NEAR 1.7 INCHES WHICH IS 2-3 SD ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR. AT THE SAME TIME A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL
QUEBEC AND THE GREAT LAKES WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST. THE FRONT WILL
BE SLOWED BY THE OFFSHORE LOW AND BECAUSE THE FRONT IS NEARLY
PARALLEL TO THE SSW FLOW ALOFT. THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY
MOVE EAST ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT...AND SHOULD BE ON A LINE FROM
ABOUT CARIBOU TO BAR HARBOR BY 12Z MON.

RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW MOVING UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL
MOSTLY REMAIN OFFSHORE TODAY.  MUCH OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY OUT AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEST OF THE AREA.  THE BEST
CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS FAR WESTERN MAINE THIS AFTERNOON AS
THE COLD FRONT INCHES CLOSER...AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE DOWN EAST
REGION ASSOCIATED WITH A LEAD SHORTWAVE AHEAD OF THE COASTAL LOW.
THERE MAYBE JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORM IN PARTS OF CENTRAL MAINE. A VERY MILD AND HUMID DAY
IS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 70F...EXCEPT COOLER
ALONG THE COAST DUE TO THE ONSHORE FLOW. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS
WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY WORKS EAST ACROSS
THE AREA. IT WILL BE ANOTHER MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE
50S. A FEW SPOTS IN THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS WHERE THE COLD FRONT
WILL COME THROUGH EARLIER IN THE NIGHT MAY DROP INTO THE UPPER 40S
BY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL BE CONSOLIDATING OVER THE GULF OF SAINT LAWRENCE
EARLY MONDAY AND MOVING AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST AS A COLD FRONT
PUSHES ACROSS OUR REGION. A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE SCATTERED ACROSS
THE NORTH AS THIS FRONT MOVES THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. OTHERWISE,
MONDAY WILL BEGIN MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE NORTH THEN BECOME
PARTLY SUNNY. DOWNEAST WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY. THE DAY
WILL BEGIN A BIT HUMID AND MILD WITH DRIER COOLER AIR COMING IN
BEHIND THE FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON. MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE NORTH AS SOME MOISTURE
POOLED IN THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS. DOWNEAST WILL BE MOSTLY
SUNNY. THE DAY MAY END UP MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION AS
THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST AND AWAY AND COOL DRY HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING A
CLEAR FROSTY NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL GIVE WAY TO A
SUNNY DAY ON WEDNESDAY WITH A COLD START, BUT SOME MODERATION
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH SLIDES SOUTH OF THE AREA AND A
RETURN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW COMES IN BEHIND THE HIGH. LONG RANGE
MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION LATE IN THE WEEK WITH A WARM RETURN FLOW OF AIR
COMING IN BEHIND THE HIGH. THURSDAY WILL BE SUNNY WITH A WARMER
AFTERNOON. A BACK DOOR COOL FRONT WILL NUDGE SOME COOLER DRIER AIR
INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY. THE FRONT SHOULD THEN PUSH BACK TO THE
NORTH AND EAST ON SATURDAY AS THE HIGH ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC
REASSERTS ITSELF AND PUSHES WARMER AIR BACK INTO OUR AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MOSTLY MVFR WITH POCKETS OF IFR POSSIBLE THIS MORNING.
MOSTLY MVFR/VFR FROM LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING. AREAS OF IFR IN LOW STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE ONLY POSSIBLE EXCEPTION MAY BE PATCHY FOG
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SEAS 4 TO 5 FT ON THE COASTAL WATERS EARLY THIS
MORNING. THE TREND IS FOR SUBSIDING SEAS AND WILL CANCEL THE SCA
WITH THIS UPDATE. ANOTHER SCA MAYBE REQUIRED LATER TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: WINDS MAY GUST UP TO 25 KT MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING IN GUSTY WINDS AHEAD OF APPROACHING HIGH
PRESSURE. OTHERWISE, WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD BE BELOW SCA THROUGH
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...VJN/BLOOMER
MARINE...VJN/BLOOMER







000
FXUS61 KCAR 211358
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
958 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST THROUGH TONIGHT AND CROSS
THE AREA MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON
TUESDAY AND CREST OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
935 AM UPDATE: CLD CVR AND POPS WERE UPDATED FOR TDY INTO MON.
SAT...RADAR AND MODEL TRENDS CONT TO SUPPORT THE IDEA OF TWO AREAS
OF RNFL TO EVOLVE...ONE AREA FOR DOWNEAST AREAS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE NRN PTN OF THE RN SHIELD FOR LATE TODAY THRU TNGT WITH A
SUBTROPICAL LIKE LOW PRES SYSTEM MOVG NE FROM OFF THE MID ATLC
STATES. THE OTHER AREA OF SHWRS WILL AFFECT NW PTNS OF THE FA
LATER TNGT...AND THEN MOVG E TO AFFECT MSLY NERN PTNS OF THE FA
MON MORN.

MEANWHILE...SKIES HAVE BECOME PTLY TO MSLY SUNNY ACROSS MOST OF
THE FA THIS MORN...WITH SCT SHWRS SHWRS OVR DOWNEAST AREAS. ALL OF
THESE TRENDS ALG WITH LATEST OBSVD TEMPS HAVE BEEN INCLUDED WITH
THIS UPDATE. WITH MORE SUNSHINE THEN PREV XPCTD TDY (WHICH IS AN
OPPOSITE TREND FROM YSTDY ATTM)...TEMPS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED
IN THE EVENT WE NEED TO BUMP UP HI TEMPS THIS AFTN FOR THE NEXT
UPDATE.

ORGNL DISC: A SUB-TROPICAL LOW IS EVIDENT ON SATELLITE PICTURE
OFF THE CAROLINA COAST EARLY THIS MORNING. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE
TO LIFT NE TODAY AND PASS ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE THIS EVE AND
INTO THE GULF OF ST LAWRENCE BY 12Z MON. THE LOW WILL CAUSE A
SURGE OF MOISTURE TO LIFT INTO MAINE TODAY WITH PRECIPITABLE H20
VALUES NEAR 1.7 INCHES WHICH IS 2-3 SD ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR. AT THE SAME TIME A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL
QUEBEC AND THE GREAT LAKES WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST. THE FRONT WILL
BE SLOWED BY THE OFFSHORE LOW AND BECAUSE THE FRONT IS NEARLY
PARALLEL TO THE SSW FLOW ALOFT. THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY
MOVE EAST ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT...AND SHOULD BE ON A LINE FROM
ABOUT CARIBOU TO BAR HARBOR BY 12Z MON.

RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW MOVING UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL
MOSTLY REMAIN OFFSHORE TODAY.  MUCH OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY OUT AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEST OF THE AREA.  THE BEST
CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS FAR WESTERN MAINE THIS AFTERNOON AS
THE COLD FRONT INCHES CLOSER...AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE DOWN EAST
REGION ASSOCIATED WITH A LEAD SHORTWAVE AHEAD OF THE COASTAL LOW.
THERE MAYBE JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORM IN PARTS OF CENTRAL MAINE. A VERY MILD AND HUMID DAY
IS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 70F...EXCEPT COOLER
ALONG THE COAST DUE TO THE ONSHORE FLOW. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS
WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY WORKS EAST ACROSS
THE AREA. IT WILL BE ANOTHER MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE
50S. A FEW SPOTS IN THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS WHERE THE COLD FRONT
WILL COME THROUGH EARLIER IN THE NIGHT MAY DROP INTO THE UPPER 40S
BY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL BE CONSOLIDATING OVER THE GULF OF SAINT LAWRENCE
EARLY MONDAY AND MOVING AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST AS A COLD FRONT
PUSHES ACROSS OUR REGION. A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE SCATTERED ACROSS
THE NORTH AS THIS FRONT MOVES THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. OTHERWISE,
MONDAY WILL BEGIN MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE NORTH THEN BECOME
PARTLY SUNNY. DOWNEAST WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY. THE DAY
WILL BEGIN A BIT HUMID AND MILD WITH DRIER COOLER AIR COMING IN
BEHIND THE FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON. MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE NORTH AS SOME MOISTURE
POOLED IN THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS. DOWNEAST WILL BE MOSTLY
SUNNY. THE DAY MAY END UP MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION AS
THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST AND AWAY AND COOL DRY HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING A
CLEAR FROSTY NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL GIVE WAY TO A
SUNNY DAY ON WEDNESDAY WITH A COLD START, BUT SOME MODERATION
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH SLIDES SOUTH OF THE AREA AND A
RETURN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW COMES IN BEHIND THE HIGH. LONG RANGE
MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION LATE IN THE WEEK WITH A WARM RETURN FLOW OF AIR
COMING IN BEHIND THE HIGH. THURSDAY WILL BE SUNNY WITH A WARMER
AFTERNOON. A BACK DOOR COOL FRONT WILL NUDGE SOME COOLER DRIER AIR
INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY. THE FRONT SHOULD THEN PUSH BACK TO THE
NORTH AND EAST ON SATURDAY AS THE HIGH ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC
REASSERTS ITSELF AND PUSHES WARMER AIR BACK INTO OUR AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MOSTLY MVFR WITH POCKETS OF IFR POSSIBLE THIS MORNING.
MOSTLY MVFR/VFR FROM LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING. AREAS OF IFR IN LOW STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE ONLY POSSIBLE EXCEPTION MAY BE PATCHY FOG
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SEAS 4 TO 5 FT ON THE COASTAL WATERS EARLY THIS
MORNING. THE TREND IS FOR SUBSIDING SEAS AND WILL CANCEL THE SCA
WITH THIS UPDATE. ANOTHER SCA MAYBE REQUIRED LATER TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: WINDS MAY GUST UP TO 25 KT MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING IN GUSTY WINDS AHEAD OF APPROACHING HIGH
PRESSURE. OTHERWISE, WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD BE BELOW SCA THROUGH
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...VJN/BLOOMER
MARINE...VJN/BLOOMER








000
FXUS61 KCAR 211016
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
616 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TODAY AND TONIGHT AND
CROSS THE AREA MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST
ON TUESDAY AND CREST OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY.&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
616 AM UPDATE...AN AREA OF SHOWERS IS LIFTING NNE INTO SOUTHERN
NH IN ADVANCE OF LOW PRES NEAR HATTERAS EARLY THIS MORNING. SOME
OF THESE SHOWERS MAY WORK UP INTO PARTS OF DOWN EAST MAINE LATER
THIS MORNING. THE SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT ARE STILL WELL WEST OF THE AREA. ONLY MINOR UPDATES TO THE
ONGOING FORECAST BASED MAINLY ON THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A SUB-TROPICAL LOW IS EVIDENT ON SATELLITE PICTURE OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST EARLY THIS MORNING. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT
NE TODAY AND PASS ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE THIS EVE AND INTO THE
GULF OF ST LAWRENCE BY 12Z MON. THE LOW WILL CAUSE A SURGE OF
MOISTURE TO LIFT INTO MAINE TODAY WITH PRECIPITABLE H20 VALUES
NEAR 1.7 INCHES WHICH IS 2-3 SD ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. AT THE SAME TIME A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL
QUEBEC AND THE GREAT LAKES WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST. THE FRONT WILL
BE SLOWED BY THE OFFSHORE LOW AND BECAUSE THE FRONT IS NEARLY
PARALLEL TO THE SSW FLOW ALOFT. THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY
MOVE EAST ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT...AND SHOULD BE ON A LINE FROM
ABOUT CARIBOU TO BAR HARBOR BY 12Z MON.

RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW MOVING UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL
MOSTLY REMAIN OFFSHORE TODAY.  MUCH OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY OUT AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEST OF THE AREA.  THE BEST
CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS FAR WESTERN MAINE THIS AFTERNOON AS
THE COLD FRONT INCHES CLOSER...AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE DOWN EAST
REGION ASSOCIATED WITH A LEAD SHORTWAVE AHEAD OF THE COASTAL LOW.
THERE MAYBE JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORM IN PARTS OF CENTRAL MAINE. A VERY MILD AND HUMID DAY
IS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 70F...EXCEPT COOLER
ALONG THE COAST DUE TO THE ONSHORE FLOW. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS
WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY WORKS EAST ACROSS
THE AREA. IT WILL BE ANOTHER MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE
50S. A FEW SPOTS IN THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS WHERE THE COLD FRONT
WILL COME THROUGH EARLIER IN THE NIGHT MAY DROP INTO THE UPPER 40S
BY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL BE CONSOLIDATING OVER THE GULF OF SAINT LAWRENCE
EARLY MONDAY AND MOVING AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST AS A COLD FRONT
PUSHES ACROSS OUR REGION. A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE SCATTERED ACROSS
THE NORTH AS THIS FRONT MOVES THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. OTHERWISE,
MONDAY WILL BEGIN MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE NORTH THEN BECOME
PARTLY SUNNY. DOWNEAST WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY. THE DAY
WILL BEGIN A BIT HUMID AND MILD WITH DRIER COOLER AIR COMING IN
BEHIND THE FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON. MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE NORTH AS SOME MOISTURE
POOLED IN THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS. DOWNEAST WILL BE MOSTLY
SUNNY. THE DAY MAY END UP MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION AS
THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST AND AWAY AND COOL DRY HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING A
CLEAR FROSTY NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL GIVE WAY TO A
SUNNY DAY ON WEDNESDAY WITH A COLD START, BUT SOME MODERATION
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH SLIDES SOUTH OF THE AREA AND A
RETURN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW COMES IN BEHIND THE HIGH. LONG RANGE
MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION LATE IN THE WEEK WITH A WARM RETURN FLOW OF AIR
COMING IN BEHIND THE HIGH. THURSDAY WILL BE SUNNY WITH A WARMER
AFTERNOON. A BACK DOOR COOL FRONT WILL NUDGE SOME COOLER DRIER AIR
INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY. THE FRONT SHOULD THEN PUSH BACK TO THE
NORTH AND EAST ON SATURDAY AS THE HIGH ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC
REASSERTS ITSELF AND PUSHES WARMER AIR BACK INTO OUR AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MOSTLY MVFR WITH POCKETS OF IFR POSSIBLE THIS MORNING.
MOSTLY MVFR/VFR FROM LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING. AREAS OF IFR IN LOW STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE ONLY POSSIBLE EXPECTION MAY BE PATCHY FOG
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SEAS 4 TO 5 FT ON THE COASTAL WATERS EARLY THIS
MORNING. THE TREND IS FOR SUBSIDING SEAS AND WILL CANCEL THE SCA
WITH THIS UPDATE. ANOTHER SCA MAYBE REQUIRED LATER TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: WINDS MAY GUST UP TO 25 KT MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING IN GUSTY WINDS AHEAD OF APPROACHING HIGH
PRESSURE. OTHERWISE, WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD BE BELOW SCA THROUGH
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
SATURDAY WAS THE 8TH DAY IN A ROW WITH A HIGH TEMPERATURE IN THE
50S AT CARIBOU. THIS IS THE MOST CONSECUTIVE DAYS WITH HIGHS IN
THE 50S SO EARLY IN THE SEASON. THE PREVIOUS RECORD OF 6 DAYS WAS
SET BACK IN SEPTEMBER OF 1959.

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...CB
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...CB/BLOOMER
MARINE...CB/BLOOMER
CLIMATE...CB






000
FXUS61 KCAR 211016
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
616 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TODAY AND TONIGHT AND
CROSS THE AREA MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST
ON TUESDAY AND CREST OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY.&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
616 AM UPDATE...AN AREA OF SHOWERS IS LIFTING NNE INTO SOUTHERN
NH IN ADVANCE OF LOW PRES NEAR HATTERAS EARLY THIS MORNING. SOME
OF THESE SHOWERS MAY WORK UP INTO PARTS OF DOWN EAST MAINE LATER
THIS MORNING. THE SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT ARE STILL WELL WEST OF THE AREA. ONLY MINOR UPDATES TO THE
ONGOING FORECAST BASED MAINLY ON THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A SUB-TROPICAL LOW IS EVIDENT ON SATELLITE PICTURE OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST EARLY THIS MORNING. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT
NE TODAY AND PASS ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE THIS EVE AND INTO THE
GULF OF ST LAWRENCE BY 12Z MON. THE LOW WILL CAUSE A SURGE OF
MOISTURE TO LIFT INTO MAINE TODAY WITH PRECIPITABLE H20 VALUES
NEAR 1.7 INCHES WHICH IS 2-3 SD ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. AT THE SAME TIME A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL
QUEBEC AND THE GREAT LAKES WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST. THE FRONT WILL
BE SLOWED BY THE OFFSHORE LOW AND BECAUSE THE FRONT IS NEARLY
PARALLEL TO THE SSW FLOW ALOFT. THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY
MOVE EAST ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT...AND SHOULD BE ON A LINE FROM
ABOUT CARIBOU TO BAR HARBOR BY 12Z MON.

RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW MOVING UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL
MOSTLY REMAIN OFFSHORE TODAY.  MUCH OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY OUT AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEST OF THE AREA.  THE BEST
CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS FAR WESTERN MAINE THIS AFTERNOON AS
THE COLD FRONT INCHES CLOSER...AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE DOWN EAST
REGION ASSOCIATED WITH A LEAD SHORTWAVE AHEAD OF THE COASTAL LOW.
THERE MAYBE JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORM IN PARTS OF CENTRAL MAINE. A VERY MILD AND HUMID DAY
IS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 70F...EXCEPT COOLER
ALONG THE COAST DUE TO THE ONSHORE FLOW. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS
WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY WORKS EAST ACROSS
THE AREA. IT WILL BE ANOTHER MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE
50S. A FEW SPOTS IN THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS WHERE THE COLD FRONT
WILL COME THROUGH EARLIER IN THE NIGHT MAY DROP INTO THE UPPER 40S
BY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL BE CONSOLIDATING OVER THE GULF OF SAINT LAWRENCE
EARLY MONDAY AND MOVING AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST AS A COLD FRONT
PUSHES ACROSS OUR REGION. A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE SCATTERED ACROSS
THE NORTH AS THIS FRONT MOVES THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. OTHERWISE,
MONDAY WILL BEGIN MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE NORTH THEN BECOME
PARTLY SUNNY. DOWNEAST WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY. THE DAY
WILL BEGIN A BIT HUMID AND MILD WITH DRIER COOLER AIR COMING IN
BEHIND THE FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON. MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE NORTH AS SOME MOISTURE
POOLED IN THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS. DOWNEAST WILL BE MOSTLY
SUNNY. THE DAY MAY END UP MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION AS
THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST AND AWAY AND COOL DRY HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING A
CLEAR FROSTY NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL GIVE WAY TO A
SUNNY DAY ON WEDNESDAY WITH A COLD START, BUT SOME MODERATION
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH SLIDES SOUTH OF THE AREA AND A
RETURN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW COMES IN BEHIND THE HIGH. LONG RANGE
MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION LATE IN THE WEEK WITH A WARM RETURN FLOW OF AIR
COMING IN BEHIND THE HIGH. THURSDAY WILL BE SUNNY WITH A WARMER
AFTERNOON. A BACK DOOR COOL FRONT WILL NUDGE SOME COOLER DRIER AIR
INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY. THE FRONT SHOULD THEN PUSH BACK TO THE
NORTH AND EAST ON SATURDAY AS THE HIGH ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC
REASSERTS ITSELF AND PUSHES WARMER AIR BACK INTO OUR AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MOSTLY MVFR WITH POCKETS OF IFR POSSIBLE THIS MORNING.
MOSTLY MVFR/VFR FROM LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING. AREAS OF IFR IN LOW STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE ONLY POSSIBLE EXPECTION MAY BE PATCHY FOG
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SEAS 4 TO 5 FT ON THE COASTAL WATERS EARLY THIS
MORNING. THE TREND IS FOR SUBSIDING SEAS AND WILL CANCEL THE SCA
WITH THIS UPDATE. ANOTHER SCA MAYBE REQUIRED LATER TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: WINDS MAY GUST UP TO 25 KT MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING IN GUSTY WINDS AHEAD OF APPROACHING HIGH
PRESSURE. OTHERWISE, WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD BE BELOW SCA THROUGH
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
SATURDAY WAS THE 8TH DAY IN A ROW WITH A HIGH TEMPERATURE IN THE
50S AT CARIBOU. THIS IS THE MOST CONSECUTIVE DAYS WITH HIGHS IN
THE 50S SO EARLY IN THE SEASON. THE PREVIOUS RECORD OF 6 DAYS WAS
SET BACK IN SEPTEMBER OF 1959.

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...CB
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...CB/BLOOMER
MARINE...CB/BLOOMER
CLIMATE...CB






000
FXUS61 KCAR 211016
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
616 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TODAY AND TONIGHT AND
CROSS THE AREA MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST
ON TUESDAY AND CREST OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY.&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
616 AM UPDATE...AN AREA OF SHOWERS IS LIFTING NNE INTO SOUTHERN
NH IN ADVANCE OF LOW PRES NEAR HATTERAS EARLY THIS MORNING. SOME
OF THESE SHOWERS MAY WORK UP INTO PARTS OF DOWN EAST MAINE LATER
THIS MORNING. THE SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT ARE STILL WELL WEST OF THE AREA. ONLY MINOR UPDATES TO THE
ONGOING FORECAST BASED MAINLY ON THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A SUB-TROPICAL LOW IS EVIDENT ON SATELLITE PICTURE OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST EARLY THIS MORNING. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT
NE TODAY AND PASS ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE THIS EVE AND INTO THE
GULF OF ST LAWRENCE BY 12Z MON. THE LOW WILL CAUSE A SURGE OF
MOISTURE TO LIFT INTO MAINE TODAY WITH PRECIPITABLE H20 VALUES
NEAR 1.7 INCHES WHICH IS 2-3 SD ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. AT THE SAME TIME A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL
QUEBEC AND THE GREAT LAKES WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST. THE FRONT WILL
BE SLOWED BY THE OFFSHORE LOW AND BECAUSE THE FRONT IS NEARLY
PARALLEL TO THE SSW FLOW ALOFT. THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY
MOVE EAST ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT...AND SHOULD BE ON A LINE FROM
ABOUT CARIBOU TO BAR HARBOR BY 12Z MON.

RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW MOVING UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL
MOSTLY REMAIN OFFSHORE TODAY.  MUCH OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY OUT AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEST OF THE AREA.  THE BEST
CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS FAR WESTERN MAINE THIS AFTERNOON AS
THE COLD FRONT INCHES CLOSER...AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE DOWN EAST
REGION ASSOCIATED WITH A LEAD SHORTWAVE AHEAD OF THE COASTAL LOW.
THERE MAYBE JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORM IN PARTS OF CENTRAL MAINE. A VERY MILD AND HUMID DAY
IS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 70F...EXCEPT COOLER
ALONG THE COAST DUE TO THE ONSHORE FLOW. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS
WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY WORKS EAST ACROSS
THE AREA. IT WILL BE ANOTHER MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE
50S. A FEW SPOTS IN THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS WHERE THE COLD FRONT
WILL COME THROUGH EARLIER IN THE NIGHT MAY DROP INTO THE UPPER 40S
BY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL BE CONSOLIDATING OVER THE GULF OF SAINT LAWRENCE
EARLY MONDAY AND MOVING AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST AS A COLD FRONT
PUSHES ACROSS OUR REGION. A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE SCATTERED ACROSS
THE NORTH AS THIS FRONT MOVES THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. OTHERWISE,
MONDAY WILL BEGIN MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE NORTH THEN BECOME
PARTLY SUNNY. DOWNEAST WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY. THE DAY
WILL BEGIN A BIT HUMID AND MILD WITH DRIER COOLER AIR COMING IN
BEHIND THE FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON. MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE NORTH AS SOME MOISTURE
POOLED IN THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS. DOWNEAST WILL BE MOSTLY
SUNNY. THE DAY MAY END UP MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION AS
THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST AND AWAY AND COOL DRY HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING A
CLEAR FROSTY NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL GIVE WAY TO A
SUNNY DAY ON WEDNESDAY WITH A COLD START, BUT SOME MODERATION
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH SLIDES SOUTH OF THE AREA AND A
RETURN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW COMES IN BEHIND THE HIGH. LONG RANGE
MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION LATE IN THE WEEK WITH A WARM RETURN FLOW OF AIR
COMING IN BEHIND THE HIGH. THURSDAY WILL BE SUNNY WITH A WARMER
AFTERNOON. A BACK DOOR COOL FRONT WILL NUDGE SOME COOLER DRIER AIR
INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY. THE FRONT SHOULD THEN PUSH BACK TO THE
NORTH AND EAST ON SATURDAY AS THE HIGH ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC
REASSERTS ITSELF AND PUSHES WARMER AIR BACK INTO OUR AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MOSTLY MVFR WITH POCKETS OF IFR POSSIBLE THIS MORNING.
MOSTLY MVFR/VFR FROM LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING. AREAS OF IFR IN LOW STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE ONLY POSSIBLE EXPECTION MAY BE PATCHY FOG
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SEAS 4 TO 5 FT ON THE COASTAL WATERS EARLY THIS
MORNING. THE TREND IS FOR SUBSIDING SEAS AND WILL CANCEL THE SCA
WITH THIS UPDATE. ANOTHER SCA MAYBE REQUIRED LATER TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: WINDS MAY GUST UP TO 25 KT MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING IN GUSTY WINDS AHEAD OF APPROACHING HIGH
PRESSURE. OTHERWISE, WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD BE BELOW SCA THROUGH
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
SATURDAY WAS THE 8TH DAY IN A ROW WITH A HIGH TEMPERATURE IN THE
50S AT CARIBOU. THIS IS THE MOST CONSECUTIVE DAYS WITH HIGHS IN
THE 50S SO EARLY IN THE SEASON. THE PREVIOUS RECORD OF 6 DAYS WAS
SET BACK IN SEPTEMBER OF 1959.

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...CB
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...CB/BLOOMER
MARINE...CB/BLOOMER
CLIMATE...CB






000
FXUS61 KCAR 211016
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
616 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TODAY AND TONIGHT AND
CROSS THE AREA MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST
ON TUESDAY AND CREST OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY.&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
616 AM UPDATE...AN AREA OF SHOWERS IS LIFTING NNE INTO SOUTHERN
NH IN ADVANCE OF LOW PRES NEAR HATTERAS EARLY THIS MORNING. SOME
OF THESE SHOWERS MAY WORK UP INTO PARTS OF DOWN EAST MAINE LATER
THIS MORNING. THE SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT ARE STILL WELL WEST OF THE AREA. ONLY MINOR UPDATES TO THE
ONGOING FORECAST BASED MAINLY ON THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A SUB-TROPICAL LOW IS EVIDENT ON SATELLITE PICTURE OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST EARLY THIS MORNING. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT
NE TODAY AND PASS ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE THIS EVE AND INTO THE
GULF OF ST LAWRENCE BY 12Z MON. THE LOW WILL CAUSE A SURGE OF
MOISTURE TO LIFT INTO MAINE TODAY WITH PRECIPITABLE H20 VALUES
NEAR 1.7 INCHES WHICH IS 2-3 SD ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. AT THE SAME TIME A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL
QUEBEC AND THE GREAT LAKES WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST. THE FRONT WILL
BE SLOWED BY THE OFFSHORE LOW AND BECAUSE THE FRONT IS NEARLY
PARALLEL TO THE SSW FLOW ALOFT. THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY
MOVE EAST ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT...AND SHOULD BE ON A LINE FROM
ABOUT CARIBOU TO BAR HARBOR BY 12Z MON.

RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW MOVING UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL
MOSTLY REMAIN OFFSHORE TODAY.  MUCH OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY OUT AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEST OF THE AREA.  THE BEST
CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS FAR WESTERN MAINE THIS AFTERNOON AS
THE COLD FRONT INCHES CLOSER...AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE DOWN EAST
REGION ASSOCIATED WITH A LEAD SHORTWAVE AHEAD OF THE COASTAL LOW.
THERE MAYBE JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORM IN PARTS OF CENTRAL MAINE. A VERY MILD AND HUMID DAY
IS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 70F...EXCEPT COOLER
ALONG THE COAST DUE TO THE ONSHORE FLOW. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS
WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY WORKS EAST ACROSS
THE AREA. IT WILL BE ANOTHER MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE
50S. A FEW SPOTS IN THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS WHERE THE COLD FRONT
WILL COME THROUGH EARLIER IN THE NIGHT MAY DROP INTO THE UPPER 40S
BY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL BE CONSOLIDATING OVER THE GULF OF SAINT LAWRENCE
EARLY MONDAY AND MOVING AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST AS A COLD FRONT
PUSHES ACROSS OUR REGION. A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE SCATTERED ACROSS
THE NORTH AS THIS FRONT MOVES THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. OTHERWISE,
MONDAY WILL BEGIN MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE NORTH THEN BECOME
PARTLY SUNNY. DOWNEAST WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY. THE DAY
WILL BEGIN A BIT HUMID AND MILD WITH DRIER COOLER AIR COMING IN
BEHIND THE FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON. MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE NORTH AS SOME MOISTURE
POOLED IN THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS. DOWNEAST WILL BE MOSTLY
SUNNY. THE DAY MAY END UP MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION AS
THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST AND AWAY AND COOL DRY HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING A
CLEAR FROSTY NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL GIVE WAY TO A
SUNNY DAY ON WEDNESDAY WITH A COLD START, BUT SOME MODERATION
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH SLIDES SOUTH OF THE AREA AND A
RETURN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW COMES IN BEHIND THE HIGH. LONG RANGE
MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION LATE IN THE WEEK WITH A WARM RETURN FLOW OF AIR
COMING IN BEHIND THE HIGH. THURSDAY WILL BE SUNNY WITH A WARMER
AFTERNOON. A BACK DOOR COOL FRONT WILL NUDGE SOME COOLER DRIER AIR
INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY. THE FRONT SHOULD THEN PUSH BACK TO THE
NORTH AND EAST ON SATURDAY AS THE HIGH ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC
REASSERTS ITSELF AND PUSHES WARMER AIR BACK INTO OUR AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MOSTLY MVFR WITH POCKETS OF IFR POSSIBLE THIS MORNING.
MOSTLY MVFR/VFR FROM LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING. AREAS OF IFR IN LOW STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE ONLY POSSIBLE EXPECTION MAY BE PATCHY FOG
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SEAS 4 TO 5 FT ON THE COASTAL WATERS EARLY THIS
MORNING. THE TREND IS FOR SUBSIDING SEAS AND WILL CANCEL THE SCA
WITH THIS UPDATE. ANOTHER SCA MAYBE REQUIRED LATER TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: WINDS MAY GUST UP TO 25 KT MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING IN GUSTY WINDS AHEAD OF APPROACHING HIGH
PRESSURE. OTHERWISE, WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD BE BELOW SCA THROUGH
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
SATURDAY WAS THE 8TH DAY IN A ROW WITH A HIGH TEMPERATURE IN THE
50S AT CARIBOU. THIS IS THE MOST CONSECUTIVE DAYS WITH HIGHS IN
THE 50S SO EARLY IN THE SEASON. THE PREVIOUS RECORD OF 6 DAYS WAS
SET BACK IN SEPTEMBER OF 1959.

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...CB
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...CB/BLOOMER
MARINE...CB/BLOOMER
CLIMATE...CB






000
FXUS61 KGYX 210950
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
550 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC WILL DRAG A TRAILING COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE REGION LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL PROVIDE LINGERING
CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF MOUNTAIN SHOWERS ON MONDAY. A SECOND SURGE
OF COOL AIR MOVES IN ON TUESDAY AND MAY SET OFF A FEW SHOWERS IN
THE MOUNTAINS. AFTER A COOL SHOT OF AIR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR SOUTH INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND AT THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

550 AM...FOR THIS ESTF UPDATE I ADJUSTED 1ST PERIOD POPS UP TO
LIKELY ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW HAMPSHIRE AND ADJACENT SOUTHWEST
MAINE TO REFLECT CURENT RADAR TRENDS AND THE MESONET.

PREV DISC...
AT 06Z...A 1000 MILLIBAR LOW WAS SITUATED OVER
WESTERN QUEBEC WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES. A STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW PRECEDED THIS BOUNDARY
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. WE`LL SEE VARIABLE CLOUDS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA TODAY IN ADVANCE OF THIS BOUNDARY. RADAR MOSAIC SHOWED
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THAT WILL CROSS THE
COASTAL PLAIN THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...VARIABLE CLOUDS WITH AN
INCREASING CHANCE FOR CONVECTION THROUGH THE DAY WITH APPROACH OF
FRONT AND DAYTIME HEATING THAT WARMS TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA TONIGHT AND EXITS THE COAST BY MORNING
ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER. ANOTHER
MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60. ON MONDAY...WE`LL
SEE LINGERING CLOUDS WITH THE UPPER TROUGH ALONG WITH THE CHANCE
FOR A SHOWER ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. HIGH WILL RANGE FROM 50S
IN THE MOUNTAINS...TO NEAR 70 AT THE COAST WHERE WE`LL SEE THE
MOST SUNSHINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE 500MB TROUGH THAT MOVES THROUGH AREA TUE INTO WED...WILL BE
THE LAST WE SEE THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS LARGE SCALE
RIDGINGDEVELOPS ACROSS ALL BUT THE WEST COAST OF NOAM...WITH THE
RIDGE PUSHING AS FAR N AS JAMES BAY BY THE END OF THE WEEK...WHICH
WILL LEAD TO AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SEVERAL DAYS OF ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS THU INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

INITIALLY...WILL START OUT WITH A BIT OF COOLER AIR MON NIGHT AND
A A SECOND SURGE OF COOLER AIR TUE AS 500MB TROUGH AXIS SWINGS
THRU. IT COULD SET OFF A FEW SHOWERS IN THE MTNS TUE....AND HIGHS
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S TUE AND WED WITH LOWS IN THE MID 30S
N TO MID 40S S. AFTER THIS THE LARGE SCALE RIDGE BUILDS AND
PERSISTENT WESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPLY WARM AIR TO THE
REGION...WITH 850MB TEMPS IN THE 10-15C RANGE. THIS SHOULD
TRANSLATE TO HIGHS IN THE 70S ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA /NEAR 80 IN
INTERIOR SRN NH AND SW ME/ AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO
MID 50S. SKIES WILL BE MAINLY SUNNY AND POPS 10 PERCENT OR LESS.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL ADVECT
FOG AND LOW CLOUDS INTO THE AREA TODAY WITH AREAS OF MVFR...AND
LCL IFR THIS MORNING. EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR TONIGHT WITH LCL
IFR...THEN BECOMING VFR MONDAY WITH SCT MVFR IN SHOWERS.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR...OTHER THAN VLY FOG...TUE THRU THU.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KT
AND SEAS NEAR 5 FT EXPECTED TODAY...THEN WINDS AND SEAS WILL DROP
BELOW SCA TONIGHT.

LONG TERM...SEAS FROM PRIOR PERSISTENT SW FLOW WILL START AT 5-6
FT MON NIGHT...BUT NW FLOW WILL KNOCK THESE BACK THRU TUE...AND
THEN LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW PERSISTS THRU THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ150-
     152-154.

&&

$$
ES



000
FXUS61 KGYX 210717
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
317 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC WILL DRAG A TRAILING COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE REGION LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL PROVIDE LINGERING
CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF MOUNTAIN SHOWERS ON MONDAY. A SECOND SURGE
OF COOL AIR MOVES IN ON TUESDAY AND MAY SET OFF A FEW SHOWERS IN
THE MOUNTAINS. AFTER A COOL SHOT OF AIR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR SOUTH INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND AT THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AT 06Z...A 1000 MILLIBAR LOW WAS SITUATED OVER WESTERN QUEBEC
WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. A
STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW PRECEDED THIS BOUNDARY ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND. WE`LL SEE VARIABLE CLOUDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY
IN ADVANCE OF THIS BOUNDARY. RADAR MOSAIC SHOWED SCATTERED SHOWERS
OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THAT WILL CROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN THIS
MORNING. OTHERWISE...VARIABLE CLOUDS WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR
CONVECTION THROUGH THE DAY WITH APPROACH OF FRONT AND DAYTIME
HEATING THAT WARMS TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA TONIGHT AND EXITS THE COAST BY MORNING
ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER. ANOTHER
MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60. ON MONDAY...WE`LL
SEE LINGERING CLOUDS WITH THE UPPER TROUGH ALONG WITH THE CHANCE
FOR A SHOWER ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. HIGH WILL RANGE FROM 50S
IN THE MOUNTAINS...TO NEAR 70 AT THE COAST WHERE WE`LL SEE THE
MOST SUNSHINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE 500MB TROUGH THAT MOVES THROUGH AREA TUE INTO WED...WILL BE
THE LAST WE SEE THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS LARGE SCALE
RIDGINGDEVELOPS ACROSS ALL BUT THE WEST COAST OF NOAM...WITH THE
RIDGE PUSHING AS FAR N AS JAMES BAY BY THE END OF THE WEEK...WHICH
WILL LEAD TO AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SEVERAL DAYS OF ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS THU INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

INITIALLY...WILL START OUT WITH A BIT OF COOLER AIR MON NIGHT AND
A A SECOND SURGE OF COOLER AIR TUE AS 500MB TROUGH AXIS SWINGS
THRU. IT COULD SET OFF A FEW SHOWERS IN THE MTNS TUE....AND HIGHS
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S TUE AND WED WITH LOWS IN THE MID 30S
N TO MID 40S S. AFTER THIS THE LARGE SCALE RIDGE BUILDS AND
PERSISTENT WESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPLY WARM AIR TO THE
REGION...WITH 850MB TEMPS IN THE 10-15C RANGE. THIS SHOULD
TRANSLATE TO HIGHS IN THE 70S ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA /NEAR 80 IN
INTERIOR SRN NH AND SW ME/ AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO
MID 50S. SKIES WILL BE MAINLY SUNNY AND POPS 10 PERCENT OR LESS.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL ADVECT
FOG AND LOW CLOUDS INTO THE AREA TODAY WITH AREAS OF MVFR...AND
LCL IFR THIS MORNING. EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR TONIGHT WITH LCL
IFR...THEN BECOMING VFR MONDAY WITH SCT MVFR IN SHOWERS.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR...OTHER THAN VLY FOG...TUE THRU THU.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KT
AND SEAS NEAR 5 FT EXPECTED TODAY...THEN WINDS AND SEAS WILL DROP
BELOW SCA TONIGHT.

LONG TERM...SEAS FROM PRIOR PERSISTENT SW FLOW WILL START AT 5-6
FT MON NIGHT...BUT NW FLOW WILL KNOCK THESE BACK THRU TUE...AND
THEN LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW PERSISTS THRU THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ150-
     152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SCHWIBS/CEMPA
NEAR TERM...SCHWIBS
SHORT TERM...SCHWIBS
LONG TERM...CEMPA
AVIATION...SCHWIBS
MARINE...SCHWIBS/CEMPA




000
FXUS61 KGYX 210717
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
317 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC WILL DRAG A TRAILING COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE REGION LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL PROVIDE LINGERING
CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF MOUNTAIN SHOWERS ON MONDAY. A SECOND SURGE
OF COOL AIR MOVES IN ON TUESDAY AND MAY SET OFF A FEW SHOWERS IN
THE MOUNTAINS. AFTER A COOL SHOT OF AIR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR SOUTH INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND AT THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AT 06Z...A 1000 MILLIBAR LOW WAS SITUATED OVER WESTERN QUEBEC
WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. A
STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW PRECEDED THIS BOUNDARY ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND. WE`LL SEE VARIABLE CLOUDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY
IN ADVANCE OF THIS BOUNDARY. RADAR MOSAIC SHOWED SCATTERED SHOWERS
OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THAT WILL CROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN THIS
MORNING. OTHERWISE...VARIABLE CLOUDS WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR
CONVECTION THROUGH THE DAY WITH APPROACH OF FRONT AND DAYTIME
HEATING THAT WARMS TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA TONIGHT AND EXITS THE COAST BY MORNING
ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER. ANOTHER
MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60. ON MONDAY...WE`LL
SEE LINGERING CLOUDS WITH THE UPPER TROUGH ALONG WITH THE CHANCE
FOR A SHOWER ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. HIGH WILL RANGE FROM 50S
IN THE MOUNTAINS...TO NEAR 70 AT THE COAST WHERE WE`LL SEE THE
MOST SUNSHINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE 500MB TROUGH THAT MOVES THROUGH AREA TUE INTO WED...WILL BE
THE LAST WE SEE THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS LARGE SCALE
RIDGINGDEVELOPS ACROSS ALL BUT THE WEST COAST OF NOAM...WITH THE
RIDGE PUSHING AS FAR N AS JAMES BAY BY THE END OF THE WEEK...WHICH
WILL LEAD TO AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SEVERAL DAYS OF ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS THU INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

INITIALLY...WILL START OUT WITH A BIT OF COOLER AIR MON NIGHT AND
A A SECOND SURGE OF COOLER AIR TUE AS 500MB TROUGH AXIS SWINGS
THRU. IT COULD SET OFF A FEW SHOWERS IN THE MTNS TUE....AND HIGHS
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S TUE AND WED WITH LOWS IN THE MID 30S
N TO MID 40S S. AFTER THIS THE LARGE SCALE RIDGE BUILDS AND
PERSISTENT WESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPLY WARM AIR TO THE
REGION...WITH 850MB TEMPS IN THE 10-15C RANGE. THIS SHOULD
TRANSLATE TO HIGHS IN THE 70S ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA /NEAR 80 IN
INTERIOR SRN NH AND SW ME/ AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO
MID 50S. SKIES WILL BE MAINLY SUNNY AND POPS 10 PERCENT OR LESS.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL ADVECT
FOG AND LOW CLOUDS INTO THE AREA TODAY WITH AREAS OF MVFR...AND
LCL IFR THIS MORNING. EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR TONIGHT WITH LCL
IFR...THEN BECOMING VFR MONDAY WITH SCT MVFR IN SHOWERS.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR...OTHER THAN VLY FOG...TUE THRU THU.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KT
AND SEAS NEAR 5 FT EXPECTED TODAY...THEN WINDS AND SEAS WILL DROP
BELOW SCA TONIGHT.

LONG TERM...SEAS FROM PRIOR PERSISTENT SW FLOW WILL START AT 5-6
FT MON NIGHT...BUT NW FLOW WILL KNOCK THESE BACK THRU TUE...AND
THEN LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW PERSISTS THRU THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ150-
     152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SCHWIBS/CEMPA
NEAR TERM...SCHWIBS
SHORT TERM...SCHWIBS
LONG TERM...CEMPA
AVIATION...SCHWIBS
MARINE...SCHWIBS/CEMPA



000
FXUS61 KCAR 210653
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
253 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TODAY AND TONIGHT AND
CROSS THE AREA MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST
ON TUESDAY AND CREST OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A SUB-TROPICAL LOW IS EVIDENT ON SATELLITE PICTURE OFF THE
CAROLINIA COAST EARLY THIS MORNING. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT
NE TODAY AND PASS ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE THIS EVE AND INTO THE
GULF OF ST LAWRENCE BY 12Z MON. THE LOW WILL CAUSE A SURGE OF
MOISTURE TO LIFT INTO MAINE TODAY WITH PRECIPITABLE H20 VALUES
NEAR 1.7 INCHES WHICH IS 2-3 SD ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. AT THE SAME TIME A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL
QUEBEC AND THE GREAT LAKES WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST. THE FRONT WILL
BE SLOWED BY THE OFFSHORE LOW AND BECAUSE THE FRONT IS NEARLY
PARALLEL TO THE SSW FLOW ALOFT. THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY
MOVE EAST ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT...AND SHOULD BE ON A LINE FROM
ABOUT CARIBOU TO BAR HARBOR BY 12Z MON.

RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW MOVING UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL
MOSTLY REMAIN OFFSHORE TODAY.  MUCH OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY OUT AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEST OF THE AREA.  THE BEST
CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS FAR WESTERN MAINE THIS AFTERNOON AS
THE COLD FRONT INCHES CLOSER...AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE DOWN EAST
REGION ASSOCIATED WITH A LEAD SHORTWAVE AHEAD OF THE COASTAL LOW.
THERE MAYBE JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORM IN PARTS OF CENTRAL MAINE. A VERY MILD AND HUMID DAY
IS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 70F...EXCEPT COOLER
ALONG THE COAST DUE TO THE ONSHORE FLOW. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS
WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY WORKS EAST ACROSS
THE AREA. IT WILL BE ANOTHER MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE
50S. A FEW SPOTS IN THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS WHERE THE COLD FRONT
WILL COME THROUGH EARLIER IN THE NIGHT MAY DROP INTO THE UPPER 40S
BY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL BE CONSOLIDATING OVER THE GULF OF SAINT LAWRENCE
EARLY MONDAY AND MOVING AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST AS A COLD FRONT
PUSHES ACROSS OUR REGION. A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE SCATTERED ACROSS
THE NORTH AS THIS FRONT MOVES THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. OTHERWISE,
MONDAY WILL BEGIN MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE NORTH THEN BECOME
PARTLY SUNNY. DOWNEAST WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY. THE DAY
WILL BEGIN A BIT HUMID AND MILD WITH DRIER COOLER AIR COMING IN
BEHIND THE FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON. MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE NORTH AS SOME MOISTURE
POOLED IN THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS. DOWNEAST WILL BE MOSTLY
SUNNY. THE DAY MAY END UP MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION AS
THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST AND AWAY AND COOL DRY HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING A
CLEAR FROSTY NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL GIVE WAY TO A
SUNNY DAY ON WEDNESDAY WITH A COLD START, BUT SOME MODERATION
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH SLIDES SOUTH OF THE AREA AND A
RETURN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW COMES IN BEHIND THE HIGH. LONG RANGE
MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION LATE IN THE WEEK WITH A WARM RETURN FLOW OF AIR
COMING IN BEHIND THE HIGH. THURSDAY WILL BE SUNNY WITH A WARMER
AFTERNOON. A BACK DOOR COOL FRONT WILL NUDGE SOME COOLER DRIER AIR
INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY. THE FRONT SHOULD THEN PUSH BACK TO THE
NORTH AND EAST ON SATURDAY AS THE HIGH ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC
REASSERTS ITSELF AND PUSHES WARMER AIR BACK INTO OUR AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: POCKETS OF IFR POSSIBLE THIS MORNING WITH MVFR/VFR FROM
LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. AREAS OF IFR IN LOW
STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE ONLY POSSIBLE EXPECTION MAY BE PATCHY FOG
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: MARGINAL SCA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH SEAS ON THE COASTAL
WATERS 4 TO 5 FT.  THE SEAS WILL LIKELY SUBSIDE SOME LATER THIS
MORNING AND WILL RE-EVALUATE AND POSSIBLY DROP THE ADVISORY WITH THE
NEXT FORECAST UPDATE.  ANOTHER SCA MAYBE REQUIRED LATER TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: WINDS MAY GUST UP TO 25 KT MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING IN GUSTY WINDS AHEAD OF APPROACHING HIGH
PRESSURE. OTHERWISE, WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD BE BELOW SCA THROUGH
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CLIMATE...SATURDAY WAS THE 8TH DAY IN A ROW WITH A HIGH
TEMPERATURE IN THE 50S AT CARIBOU. THIS IS THE MOST CONSECUTIVE
DAYS WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S SO EARLY IN THE SEASON. THE PREVIOUS
RECORD OF 6 DAYS WAS SET BACK IN SEPTEMBER OF 1959.

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS
     MORNING FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...CB
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...CB/BLOOMER
MARINE...CB/BLOOMER
CLIMATE...CB






000
FXUS61 KCAR 210407
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1207 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS WEAK LOW
PRESSURE TRACKING NORTH FROM THE MID ATLANTIC PASSES TO OUR EAST.
THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
1207 AM UPDATE...MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS NORTHERN
MAINE HAS SHIFTED EAST INTO NEW BRUNSWICK. THIS WILL LEAVE THE
AREA MOSTLY DRY FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. TEMPERATURES ARE ANYWHERE
FROM 10 TO 25 DEGREES WARMER THAN THIS TIME LAST NIGHT DUE TO
SOUTHERLY FLOW. ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE ONGOING FORECAST
BASED ON THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND OBSERVATIONS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
FOG POSSIBLE CLOSER TO THE COAST OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL
GENERALLY STAY IN THE LOW TO MID 50S ACROSS MOST SPOTS TONIGHT
WITH SHOWERS MAINLY AFFECTING NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION.
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE VERY SLOWLY PROGRESSING TOWARD THE EAST
OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE GUIDANCE IS KEEPING THE SECONDARY LOW
THAT DEVELOPS WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION AT THIS POINT. HOWEVER SOME
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THAT SURFACE FEATURE WILL STREAM OUT
AHEAD BRINGING CHANCE POPS MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH
THE REST OF THE DAY SUNDAY. GIVEN PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW
EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO MAKE IT INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S
ACROSS THE FA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DTMNSTC 12Z MODELS...ARE STILL SHOWING CONSIDERABLE MODEL TO MODEL
AND RUN TO RUN VARIABILITY WITH FCST 6 HRLY QPFS FOR SUN NGT INTO
MON AS SEPARATE S/WVS FROM THE THE LOWER GREAT LKS AND THE LOWER
MID ATLC STATES PROGRESSIVELY MOVE ENE. ATTM...IT APPEARS THAT THE
MORE SRN SFC LOW WITH THE MID ATLC S/WV COULD INTERCEPT SOME OF
THE ATLC MOISTURE THAT WOULD HAVE BEEN DESTINED TO ADVECT INTO THE
SFC LOW OF THE NRN S/WV FROM THE GREAT LKS...RESULTING IN A GAP
OF LESSER RNFL OVR MUCH OF THE FA. FOR NOW WE USED THE 09Z SREF
RUN TO GAP SOME OF THESE DTMNSTC RUN TO RUN MODEL DIFFERENCES...
RESULTING IN A SOMEWHAT SMOOTHED POP DISTRIBUTION BETWEEN QPF
BULLSEYES N AND S OF THE FA...BUT THERE COULD BE AREAS OF
RELATIVELY SPOTTY RNFL IF SOME OF THE LATEST DTMNSTC MODEL RUNS
VERIFY. AFT MILD OVRNGT LOW SUN NGT...HI TEMPS MON WILL SHOW A
LITTLE GREATER SE TO NW GRADIENT DUE TO A COLD FRONT TRAVERSING
ACROSS THE REGION DURG DAYLIGHT HRS.

OTHERWISE...SUN NGT INTO MON WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED ACROSS NRN/CNTRL
PTNS OF THE FA AS WHATS LEFT OF THE GREAT LKS S/WV CROSSES THESE
PTNS OF THE FA. SUBSEQUENTLY...WE KEPT CLD CVR HIER OVR THE N AND
CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA WITH A SLGT CHC OF SHWRS. TEMPS WILL BE
COOLER MON NGT AND TUE WITH CONTD COOL LLVL ADVCN...WITH SC AND
NW WINDS PREVENTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF RADIATIONAL COOLING MON
NGT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE DOMINATED BY HIGH PRESSURE. AS
SUCH, EXPECT A STRETCH OF COOL AND DRY WEATHER. A BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT MAKES A RUN AT THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY, BUT IT
LOOKS TO BE A DRY FRONT THAT ONLY PRODUCES SOME CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM GRADUALLY THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH HIGHS TO REACH ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMALS BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: THERE WILL BE THE OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
NORTH THIS EVENING ESPECIALLY WITH HEAVIER SHOWERS. IFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE PARTICULARLY AT THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES WHERE LOW
STRATUS AND FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL
EVENTUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR/MVFR THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY.

SHORT TERM: MSLY LOW MVFR AND IFR LOW CLGS AND VSBY WITH SHWRS WILL
PREDOMINATE THE TAF SITES SUN NGT THRU MON...WITH CONDITIONS
IMPROVING TO VFR FOR DOWNEAST SITES AND AT LEAST MVFR NRN TAF
SITES MON NGT. ALL SITES SHOULD BE VFR ON TUE CONTG THRU THU.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR SEAS CONTINUES WITH SEAS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 5 FT OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE VIS WILL BE
REDUCED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL WATERS DUE TO FOG OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: WV HTS BUILD TO SCA AND ABV MIN SCA CRITERIA OVR MSLY
THE OUTER WATERS SUN NGT THRU MON WITH A WSWRLY WIND FETCH WHICH
WILL MSLY FEATURE WIND SPEEDS JUST BLO SCA CRITERIA OF 25 KT. WV
HTS BEGIN TO SUBSIDE LATE MON NGT TO BLO SCA CRITERIA OVR THE
OUTER WATERS ON TUE AS WINDS SHIFT TO MORE OFFSHORE...SHORTER
FETCH NW WIND DIRECTION. WENT WITH ABOUT 90 PERCENT OF WW3 WV
GUIDANCE FOR THIS FCST UPDATE.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM EDT SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...JORDAN/HEWITT/CB
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...HASTINGS
AVIATION...JORDAN/VJN/CB
MARINE...JORDAN/VJN/CB




000
FXUS61 KCAR 210407
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1207 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS WEAK LOW
PRESSURE TRACKING NORTH FROM THE MID ATLANTIC PASSES TO OUR EAST.
THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
1207 AM UPDATE...MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS NORTHERN
MAINE HAS SHIFTED EAST INTO NEW BRUNSWICK. THIS WILL LEAVE THE
AREA MOSTLY DRY FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. TEMPERATURES ARE ANYWHERE
FROM 10 TO 25 DEGREES WARMER THAN THIS TIME LAST NIGHT DUE TO
SOUTHERLY FLOW. ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE ONGOING FORECAST
BASED ON THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND OBSERVATIONS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
FOG POSSIBLE CLOSER TO THE COAST OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL
GENERALLY STAY IN THE LOW TO MID 50S ACROSS MOST SPOTS TONIGHT
WITH SHOWERS MAINLY AFFECTING NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION.
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE VERY SLOWLY PROGRESSING TOWARD THE EAST
OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE GUIDANCE IS KEEPING THE SECONDARY LOW
THAT DEVELOPS WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION AT THIS POINT. HOWEVER SOME
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THAT SURFACE FEATURE WILL STREAM OUT
AHEAD BRINGING CHANCE POPS MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH
THE REST OF THE DAY SUNDAY. GIVEN PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW
EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO MAKE IT INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S
ACROSS THE FA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DTMNSTC 12Z MODELS...ARE STILL SHOWING CONSIDERABLE MODEL TO MODEL
AND RUN TO RUN VARIABILITY WITH FCST 6 HRLY QPFS FOR SUN NGT INTO
MON AS SEPARATE S/WVS FROM THE THE LOWER GREAT LKS AND THE LOWER
MID ATLC STATES PROGRESSIVELY MOVE ENE. ATTM...IT APPEARS THAT THE
MORE SRN SFC LOW WITH THE MID ATLC S/WV COULD INTERCEPT SOME OF
THE ATLC MOISTURE THAT WOULD HAVE BEEN DESTINED TO ADVECT INTO THE
SFC LOW OF THE NRN S/WV FROM THE GREAT LKS...RESULTING IN A GAP
OF LESSER RNFL OVR MUCH OF THE FA. FOR NOW WE USED THE 09Z SREF
RUN TO GAP SOME OF THESE DTMNSTC RUN TO RUN MODEL DIFFERENCES...
RESULTING IN A SOMEWHAT SMOOTHED POP DISTRIBUTION BETWEEN QPF
BULLSEYES N AND S OF THE FA...BUT THERE COULD BE AREAS OF
RELATIVELY SPOTTY RNFL IF SOME OF THE LATEST DTMNSTC MODEL RUNS
VERIFY. AFT MILD OVRNGT LOW SUN NGT...HI TEMPS MON WILL SHOW A
LITTLE GREATER SE TO NW GRADIENT DUE TO A COLD FRONT TRAVERSING
ACROSS THE REGION DURG DAYLIGHT HRS.

OTHERWISE...SUN NGT INTO MON WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED ACROSS NRN/CNTRL
PTNS OF THE FA AS WHATS LEFT OF THE GREAT LKS S/WV CROSSES THESE
PTNS OF THE FA. SUBSEQUENTLY...WE KEPT CLD CVR HIER OVR THE N AND
CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA WITH A SLGT CHC OF SHWRS. TEMPS WILL BE
COOLER MON NGT AND TUE WITH CONTD COOL LLVL ADVCN...WITH SC AND
NW WINDS PREVENTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF RADIATIONAL COOLING MON
NGT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE DOMINATED BY HIGH PRESSURE. AS
SUCH, EXPECT A STRETCH OF COOL AND DRY WEATHER. A BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT MAKES A RUN AT THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY, BUT IT
LOOKS TO BE A DRY FRONT THAT ONLY PRODUCES SOME CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM GRADUALLY THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH HIGHS TO REACH ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMALS BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: THERE WILL BE THE OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
NORTH THIS EVENING ESPECIALLY WITH HEAVIER SHOWERS. IFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE PARTICULARLY AT THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES WHERE LOW
STRATUS AND FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL
EVENTUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR/MVFR THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY.

SHORT TERM: MSLY LOW MVFR AND IFR LOW CLGS AND VSBY WITH SHWRS WILL
PREDOMINATE THE TAF SITES SUN NGT THRU MON...WITH CONDITIONS
IMPROVING TO VFR FOR DOWNEAST SITES AND AT LEAST MVFR NRN TAF
SITES MON NGT. ALL SITES SHOULD BE VFR ON TUE CONTG THRU THU.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR SEAS CONTINUES WITH SEAS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 5 FT OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE VIS WILL BE
REDUCED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL WATERS DUE TO FOG OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: WV HTS BUILD TO SCA AND ABV MIN SCA CRITERIA OVR MSLY
THE OUTER WATERS SUN NGT THRU MON WITH A WSWRLY WIND FETCH WHICH
WILL MSLY FEATURE WIND SPEEDS JUST BLO SCA CRITERIA OF 25 KT. WV
HTS BEGIN TO SUBSIDE LATE MON NGT TO BLO SCA CRITERIA OVR THE
OUTER WATERS ON TUE AS WINDS SHIFT TO MORE OFFSHORE...SHORTER
FETCH NW WIND DIRECTION. WENT WITH ABOUT 90 PERCENT OF WW3 WV
GUIDANCE FOR THIS FCST UPDATE.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM EDT SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...JORDAN/HEWITT/CB
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...HASTINGS
AVIATION...JORDAN/VJN/CB
MARINE...JORDAN/VJN/CB





000
FXUS61 KCAR 210407
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1207 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS WEAK LOW
PRESSURE TRACKING NORTH FROM THE MID ATLANTIC PASSES TO OUR EAST.
THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
1207 AM UPDATE...MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS NORTHERN
MAINE HAS SHIFTED EAST INTO NEW BRUNSWICK. THIS WILL LEAVE THE
AREA MOSTLY DRY FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. TEMPERATURES ARE ANYWHERE
FROM 10 TO 25 DEGREES WARMER THAN THIS TIME LAST NIGHT DUE TO
SOUTHERLY FLOW. ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE ONGOING FORECAST
BASED ON THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND OBSERVATIONS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
FOG POSSIBLE CLOSER TO THE COAST OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL
GENERALLY STAY IN THE LOW TO MID 50S ACROSS MOST SPOTS TONIGHT
WITH SHOWERS MAINLY AFFECTING NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION.
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE VERY SLOWLY PROGRESSING TOWARD THE EAST
OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE GUIDANCE IS KEEPING THE SECONDARY LOW
THAT DEVELOPS WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION AT THIS POINT. HOWEVER SOME
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THAT SURFACE FEATURE WILL STREAM OUT
AHEAD BRINGING CHANCE POPS MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH
THE REST OF THE DAY SUNDAY. GIVEN PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW
EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO MAKE IT INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S
ACROSS THE FA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DTMNSTC 12Z MODELS...ARE STILL SHOWING CONSIDERABLE MODEL TO MODEL
AND RUN TO RUN VARIABILITY WITH FCST 6 HRLY QPFS FOR SUN NGT INTO
MON AS SEPARATE S/WVS FROM THE THE LOWER GREAT LKS AND THE LOWER
MID ATLC STATES PROGRESSIVELY MOVE ENE. ATTM...IT APPEARS THAT THE
MORE SRN SFC LOW WITH THE MID ATLC S/WV COULD INTERCEPT SOME OF
THE ATLC MOISTURE THAT WOULD HAVE BEEN DESTINED TO ADVECT INTO THE
SFC LOW OF THE NRN S/WV FROM THE GREAT LKS...RESULTING IN A GAP
OF LESSER RNFL OVR MUCH OF THE FA. FOR NOW WE USED THE 09Z SREF
RUN TO GAP SOME OF THESE DTMNSTC RUN TO RUN MODEL DIFFERENCES...
RESULTING IN A SOMEWHAT SMOOTHED POP DISTRIBUTION BETWEEN QPF
BULLSEYES N AND S OF THE FA...BUT THERE COULD BE AREAS OF
RELATIVELY SPOTTY RNFL IF SOME OF THE LATEST DTMNSTC MODEL RUNS
VERIFY. AFT MILD OVRNGT LOW SUN NGT...HI TEMPS MON WILL SHOW A
LITTLE GREATER SE TO NW GRADIENT DUE TO A COLD FRONT TRAVERSING
ACROSS THE REGION DURG DAYLIGHT HRS.

OTHERWISE...SUN NGT INTO MON WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED ACROSS NRN/CNTRL
PTNS OF THE FA AS WHATS LEFT OF THE GREAT LKS S/WV CROSSES THESE
PTNS OF THE FA. SUBSEQUENTLY...WE KEPT CLD CVR HIER OVR THE N AND
CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA WITH A SLGT CHC OF SHWRS. TEMPS WILL BE
COOLER MON NGT AND TUE WITH CONTD COOL LLVL ADVCN...WITH SC AND
NW WINDS PREVENTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF RADIATIONAL COOLING MON
NGT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE DOMINATED BY HIGH PRESSURE. AS
SUCH, EXPECT A STRETCH OF COOL AND DRY WEATHER. A BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT MAKES A RUN AT THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY, BUT IT
LOOKS TO BE A DRY FRONT THAT ONLY PRODUCES SOME CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM GRADUALLY THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH HIGHS TO REACH ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMALS BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: THERE WILL BE THE OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
NORTH THIS EVENING ESPECIALLY WITH HEAVIER SHOWERS. IFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE PARTICULARLY AT THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES WHERE LOW
STRATUS AND FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL
EVENTUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR/MVFR THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY.

SHORT TERM: MSLY LOW MVFR AND IFR LOW CLGS AND VSBY WITH SHWRS WILL
PREDOMINATE THE TAF SITES SUN NGT THRU MON...WITH CONDITIONS
IMPROVING TO VFR FOR DOWNEAST SITES AND AT LEAST MVFR NRN TAF
SITES MON NGT. ALL SITES SHOULD BE VFR ON TUE CONTG THRU THU.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR SEAS CONTINUES WITH SEAS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 5 FT OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE VIS WILL BE
REDUCED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL WATERS DUE TO FOG OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: WV HTS BUILD TO SCA AND ABV MIN SCA CRITERIA OVR MSLY
THE OUTER WATERS SUN NGT THRU MON WITH A WSWRLY WIND FETCH WHICH
WILL MSLY FEATURE WIND SPEEDS JUST BLO SCA CRITERIA OF 25 KT. WV
HTS BEGIN TO SUBSIDE LATE MON NGT TO BLO SCA CRITERIA OVR THE
OUTER WATERS ON TUE AS WINDS SHIFT TO MORE OFFSHORE...SHORTER
FETCH NW WIND DIRECTION. WENT WITH ABOUT 90 PERCENT OF WW3 WV
GUIDANCE FOR THIS FCST UPDATE.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM EDT SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...JORDAN/HEWITT/CB
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...HASTINGS
AVIATION...JORDAN/VJN/CB
MARINE...JORDAN/VJN/CB





000
FXUS61 KGYX 210231
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1030 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT TRACKS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW FROM THE WEST LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...AND WILL PROVIDE A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND MAYBE EVEN AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
1030 PM UPDATE...HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR MINOR
TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONAL DATA...MAINLY SKY COVER. SKIES CONTINUE
TO CLEAR OUT AND SHOULD BE THE TREND FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AFTER
3 AM...EXPECT COASTAL STRATUS AND FOG TO DEVELOP ALONG WITH
A WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS.

7 PM UPDATE...HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST FOR MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
BASED ON LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONAL DATA. THIS EVENING SHOULD
CONTINUE TO BE MOSTLY CLOUDY BUT DRY. WELL AFTER
MIDNIGHT...POSITIVE THETA-E ADVECTION IN THE LOW LEVELS
STRENGTHENS AS K-INDICES RISE AND SHOWALTER INDICES DROP TO AROUND
ZERO. SHOWERS ARE THEREFORE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE AT
NIGHT...WITH AN ISOLD RUMBLE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

PREVIOUSLY...

12Z SOUNDING NOTED SW FLOW AND A SATURATED LAYER FROM ABOUT 925 TO
800MB THIS MORNING. FORECAST SOUNDING SHOW THIS LAYER CONTINUING
TONIGHT AS WAA CONTINUES AND MOIST TROPICAL AIR PUSHES INTO THE
REGION. EXPECTING CLOUD COVER AND MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT...WITH ALMOST ALL AREAS STAYING IN THE 50S OVERNIGHT.
MOISTURE ADVECTION SHOULD ALSO HELP IN THE FORMATION OF FOG OVER
THE WATERS AND ALONG COASTAL ZONES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS ARE HAVING A TOUGH TIME HANDLING THE WAVE/LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
OFF THE CAROLINAS. THE WAVE/LOW WILL MOVE NORTHWARD TOMORROW AND
PASS VERY CLOSE TO THE 40/70 BENCHMARK. MODELS ALL AGREE THAT THIS
SYSTEM WILL NOT SUPPLY MUCH IN THE WAY OF RAINFALL TO THE AREA BUT
THE TROPICAL AIRMASS WILL BE NOTED AS PWAT VALUES WILL INCREASE TO
THE 1.7 RANGE TOMORROW...WHICH IS ABOUT 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE NORMAL VALUES. THIS MOISTURE COMBINING WITH A WEAK LEADING
SHORT WAVE WILL BE ENOUGH TO MAYBE BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN AND
DRIZZLE TO THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA BY TOMORROW MORNING. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO TOMORROW
EVENING. THIS FRONT WILL KICK OFF SCT SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
THUNDERSTORM...HOWEVER...EVEN WITH THE INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE THE INSTABILITY IS LOOKING MODEST AT BEST. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR A STORM WILL BE IN THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA...WHERE
BREAKS OF SUN AND HEATING IS MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING OFFSHORE AND INTO EASTERN MAINE
MONDAY MORNING. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT OVER THE INTERIOR AND
ALONG THE COAST AS DOWNSLOPING WESTERLY WINDS DEVELOP BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH AND EVENTUALLY JUST
REMAIN OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN BY EARLY AFTERNOON. WE SHOULD SEE A
DECENT TEMPERATURE GRADIENT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DUE TO THIS WITH
UPPER 50S NORTH TO LOWER 70S ALONG THE COAST.

THE COLDER AIR BEGINS TO DIP DOWN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING AND IS ENTRENCHED ALONG THE GREEN AND WHITE MOUNTAIN
BASINS. THERE WILL BE A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE LOWER 30S BUT THE
MAJORITY OF SITES SHOULD HOVER IN THE MID 30S. THIS IS PARTLY DUE
TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE JETSTREAK AND SOME LINGERING MID AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDINESS. ELSEWHERE TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO
MID 40S. ANOTHER REINFORCING COOL FRONT MOVES THROUGH DURING THE
DAY TUESDAY...BUT THE SOURCE IS WELL NORTH AND WILL RESULT IN
LITTLE MORE THAN A WIND SHIFT.

THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK LOOKS PLEASANT AND PRECIPITATION FREE
AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE WEATHER AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL TRANSITION INTO THE 60S AND 70S BY
WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PROMOTE CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...AND QUICKLY
DROPPING TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S AND 40S EACH NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL ADVECT
FOG AND LOW STRATUS INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. THIS WILL CAUSE IFR
CONDITIONS FROM MIDNIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. CEILINGS AND
VIS SHOULD THEN INCREASE TO MVFR AND VFR CONDITIONS BEFORE A COLD
FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE REGION LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND INTO
TOMORROW NIGHT.

LONG TERM...MVFR OR BRIEFLY LOWER CONDITIONS MONDAY
MORNING..MAINLY IN MOUNTAIN TERMINALS IN SHOWERS AND FOG. FOG WILL
AGAIN BE POSSIBLE IN MOUNTAIN TERMINALS TUESDAY MORNING. VFR WILL
PREVAIL THEREAFTER.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS WITH GUSTS AROUND TO 25
KNOTS AND SEAS AROUND 5 FT ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT ON THE OCEAN
WATERS. HAVE THEREFORE ISSUED A SCA FOR TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

LONG TERM...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM UPDATE...MLE




000
FXUS61 KCAR 210223
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1023 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS WEAK LOW
PRESSURE TRACKING NORTH FROM THE MID ATLANTIC PASSES TO OUR EAST.
THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
1015 PM UPDATE...ADJUSTMENTS WERE NEEDED TO THE POPS TO HAVE THE
FIRST BATCH OF SHOWERS PULLING THROUGH NE MAINE BY MIDNIGHT AND
THEN A BREAK BEFORE MORE SHOWERS SET UP BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
DECIDED TO SHOW A SPLIT IN THE AREAL COVERAGE W/A BATCH ACROSS
NORTHERN MAINE AND ANOTHER AREA MOVING IN ACROSS THE CENTRAL
HIGHLANDS BY SUNDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN STEADY IN
THE LOW TO MID 50S ACROSS THE NORTH AND UPPER 50S INTERIOR
DOWNEAST TO THE COAST.

FOG POSSIBLE CLOSER TO THE COAST OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL
GENERALLY STAY IN THE LOW TO MID 50S ACROSS MOST SPOTS TONIGHT
WITH SHOWERS MAINLY AFFECTING NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION.
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE VERY SLOWLY PROGRESSING TOWARD THE EAST
OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE GUIDANCE IS KEEPING THE SECONDARY LOW
THAT DEVELOPS WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION AT THIS POINT. HOWEVER SOME
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THAT SURFACE FEATURE WILL STREAM OUT
AHEAD BRINGING CHANCE POPS MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH
THE REST OF THE DAY SUNDAY. GIVEN PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW
EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO MAKE IT INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S
ACROSS THE FA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DTMNSTC 12Z MODELS...ARE STILL SHOWING CONSIDERABLE MODEL TO MODEL
AND RUN TO RUN VARIABILITY WITH FCST 6 HRLY QPFS FOR SUN NGT INTO
MON AS SEPARATE S/WVS FROM THE THE LOWER GREAT LKS AND THE LOWER
MID ATLC STATES PROGRESSIVELY MOVE ENE. ATTM...IT APPEARS THAT THE
MORE SRN SFC LOW WITH THE MID ATLC S/WV COULD INTERCEPT SOME OF
THE ATLC MOISTURE THAT WOULD HAVE BEEN DESTINED TO ADVECT INTO THE
SFC LOW OF THE NRN S/WV FROM THE GREAT LKS...RESULTING IN A GAP
OF LESSER RNFL OVR MUCH OF THE FA. FOR NOW WE USED THE 09Z SREF
RUN TO GAP SOME OF THESE DTMNSTC RUN TO RUN MODEL DIFFERENCES...
RESULTING IN A SOMEWHAT SMOOTHED POP DISTRIBUTION BETWEEN QPF
BULLSEYES N AND S OF THE FA...BUT THERE COULD BE AREAS OF
RELATIVELY SPOTTY RNFL IF SOME OF THE LATEST DTMNSTC MODEL RUNS
VERIFY. AFT MILD OVRNGT LOW SUN NGT...HI TEMPS MON WILL SHOW A
LITTLE GREATER SE TO NW GRADIENT DUE TO A COLD FRONT TRAVERSING
ACROSS THE REGION DURG DAYLIGHT HRS.

OTHERWISE...SUN NGT INTO MON WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED ACROSS NRN/CNTRL
PTNS OF THE FA AS WHATS LEFT OF THE GREAT LKS S/WV CROSSES THESE
PTNS OF THE FA. SUBSEQUENTLY...WE KEPT CLD CVR HIER OVR THE N AND
CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA WITH A SLGT CHC OF SHWRS. TEMPS WILL BE
COOLER MON NGT AND TUE WITH CONTD COOL LLVL ADVCN...WITH SC AND
NW WINDS PREVENTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF RADIATIONAL COOLING MON
NGT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE DOMINATED BY HIGH PRESSURE. AS
SUCH, EXPECT A STRETCH OF COOL AND DRY WEATHER. A BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT MAKES A RUN AT THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY, BUT IT
LOOKS TO BE A DRY FRONT THAT ONLY PRODUCES SOME CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM GRADUALLY THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH HIGHS TO REACH ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMALS BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: THERE WILL BE THE OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
NORTH THIS EVENING ESPECIALLY WITH HEAVIER SHOWERS. IFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE PARTICULARLY AT THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES WHERE LOW
STRATUS AND FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL
EVENTUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR/MVFR THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY.


SHORT TERM: MSLY LOW MVFR AND IFR LOW CLGS AND VSBY WITH SHWRS WILL
PREDOMINATE THE TAF SITES SUN NGT THRU MON...WITH CONDITIONS
IMPROVING TO VFR FOR DOWNEAST SITES AND AT LEAST MVFR NRN TAF
SITES MON NGT. ALL SITES SHOULD BE VFR ON TUE CONTG THRU THU.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR SEAS CONTINUES TONIGHT WITH
SEAS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 5 FT TONIGHT. OTHERWISE VIS WILL BE
REDUCED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL WATERS DUE TO FOG OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: WV HTS BUILD TO SCA AND ABV MIN SCA CRITERIA OVR MSLY
THE OUTER WATERS SUN NGT THRU MON WITH A WSWRLY WIND FETCH WHICH
WILL MSLY FEATURE WIND SPEEDS JUST BLO SCA CRITERIA OF 25 KT. WV
HTS BEGIN TO SUBSIDE LATE MON NGT TO BLO SCA CRITERIA OVR THE
OUTER WATERS ON TUE AS WINDS SHIFT TO MORE OFFSHORE...SHORTER
FETCH NW WIND DIRECTION. WENT WITH ABOUT 90 PERCENT OF WW3 WV
GUIDANCE FOR THIS FCST UPDATE.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM EDT SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT








000
FXUS61 KCAR 210223
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1023 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS WEAK LOW
PRESSURE TRACKING NORTH FROM THE MID ATLANTIC PASSES TO OUR EAST.
THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
1015 PM UPDATE...ADJUSTMENTS WERE NEEDED TO THE POPS TO HAVE THE
FIRST BATCH OF SHOWERS PULLING THROUGH NE MAINE BY MIDNIGHT AND
THEN A BREAK BEFORE MORE SHOWERS SET UP BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
DECIDED TO SHOW A SPLIT IN THE AREAL COVERAGE W/A BATCH ACROSS
NORTHERN MAINE AND ANOTHER AREA MOVING IN ACROSS THE CENTRAL
HIGHLANDS BY SUNDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN STEADY IN
THE LOW TO MID 50S ACROSS THE NORTH AND UPPER 50S INTERIOR
DOWNEAST TO THE COAST.

FOG POSSIBLE CLOSER TO THE COAST OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL
GENERALLY STAY IN THE LOW TO MID 50S ACROSS MOST SPOTS TONIGHT
WITH SHOWERS MAINLY AFFECTING NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION.
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE VERY SLOWLY PROGRESSING TOWARD THE EAST
OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE GUIDANCE IS KEEPING THE SECONDARY LOW
THAT DEVELOPS WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION AT THIS POINT. HOWEVER SOME
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THAT SURFACE FEATURE WILL STREAM OUT
AHEAD BRINGING CHANCE POPS MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH
THE REST OF THE DAY SUNDAY. GIVEN PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW
EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO MAKE IT INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S
ACROSS THE FA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DTMNSTC 12Z MODELS...ARE STILL SHOWING CONSIDERABLE MODEL TO MODEL
AND RUN TO RUN VARIABILITY WITH FCST 6 HRLY QPFS FOR SUN NGT INTO
MON AS SEPARATE S/WVS FROM THE THE LOWER GREAT LKS AND THE LOWER
MID ATLC STATES PROGRESSIVELY MOVE ENE. ATTM...IT APPEARS THAT THE
MORE SRN SFC LOW WITH THE MID ATLC S/WV COULD INTERCEPT SOME OF
THE ATLC MOISTURE THAT WOULD HAVE BEEN DESTINED TO ADVECT INTO THE
SFC LOW OF THE NRN S/WV FROM THE GREAT LKS...RESULTING IN A GAP
OF LESSER RNFL OVR MUCH OF THE FA. FOR NOW WE USED THE 09Z SREF
RUN TO GAP SOME OF THESE DTMNSTC RUN TO RUN MODEL DIFFERENCES...
RESULTING IN A SOMEWHAT SMOOTHED POP DISTRIBUTION BETWEEN QPF
BULLSEYES N AND S OF THE FA...BUT THERE COULD BE AREAS OF
RELATIVELY SPOTTY RNFL IF SOME OF THE LATEST DTMNSTC MODEL RUNS
VERIFY. AFT MILD OVRNGT LOW SUN NGT...HI TEMPS MON WILL SHOW A
LITTLE GREATER SE TO NW GRADIENT DUE TO A COLD FRONT TRAVERSING
ACROSS THE REGION DURG DAYLIGHT HRS.

OTHERWISE...SUN NGT INTO MON WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED ACROSS NRN/CNTRL
PTNS OF THE FA AS WHATS LEFT OF THE GREAT LKS S/WV CROSSES THESE
PTNS OF THE FA. SUBSEQUENTLY...WE KEPT CLD CVR HIER OVR THE N AND
CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA WITH A SLGT CHC OF SHWRS. TEMPS WILL BE
COOLER MON NGT AND TUE WITH CONTD COOL LLVL ADVCN...WITH SC AND
NW WINDS PREVENTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF RADIATIONAL COOLING MON
NGT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE DOMINATED BY HIGH PRESSURE. AS
SUCH, EXPECT A STRETCH OF COOL AND DRY WEATHER. A BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT MAKES A RUN AT THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY, BUT IT
LOOKS TO BE A DRY FRONT THAT ONLY PRODUCES SOME CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM GRADUALLY THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH HIGHS TO REACH ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMALS BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: THERE WILL BE THE OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
NORTH THIS EVENING ESPECIALLY WITH HEAVIER SHOWERS. IFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE PARTICULARLY AT THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES WHERE LOW
STRATUS AND FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL
EVENTUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR/MVFR THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY.


SHORT TERM: MSLY LOW MVFR AND IFR LOW CLGS AND VSBY WITH SHWRS WILL
PREDOMINATE THE TAF SITES SUN NGT THRU MON...WITH CONDITIONS
IMPROVING TO VFR FOR DOWNEAST SITES AND AT LEAST MVFR NRN TAF
SITES MON NGT. ALL SITES SHOULD BE VFR ON TUE CONTG THRU THU.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR SEAS CONTINUES TONIGHT WITH
SEAS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 5 FT TONIGHT. OTHERWISE VIS WILL BE
REDUCED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL WATERS DUE TO FOG OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: WV HTS BUILD TO SCA AND ABV MIN SCA CRITERIA OVR MSLY
THE OUTER WATERS SUN NGT THRU MON WITH A WSWRLY WIND FETCH WHICH
WILL MSLY FEATURE WIND SPEEDS JUST BLO SCA CRITERIA OF 25 KT. WV
HTS BEGIN TO SUBSIDE LATE MON NGT TO BLO SCA CRITERIA OVR THE
OUTER WATERS ON TUE AS WINDS SHIFT TO MORE OFFSHORE...SHORTER
FETCH NW WIND DIRECTION. WENT WITH ABOUT 90 PERCENT OF WW3 WV
GUIDANCE FOR THIS FCST UPDATE.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM EDT SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT








000
FXUS61 KCAR 210223
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1023 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS WEAK LOW
PRESSURE TRACKING NORTH FROM THE MID ATLANTIC PASSES TO OUR EAST.
THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
1015 PM UPDATE...ADJUSTMENTS WERE NEEDED TO THE POPS TO HAVE THE
FIRST BATCH OF SHOWERS PULLING THROUGH NE MAINE BY MIDNIGHT AND
THEN A BREAK BEFORE MORE SHOWERS SET UP BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
DECIDED TO SHOW A SPLIT IN THE AREAL COVERAGE W/A BATCH ACROSS
NORTHERN MAINE AND ANOTHER AREA MOVING IN ACROSS THE CENTRAL
HIGHLANDS BY SUNDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN STEADY IN
THE LOW TO MID 50S ACROSS THE NORTH AND UPPER 50S INTERIOR
DOWNEAST TO THE COAST.

FOG POSSIBLE CLOSER TO THE COAST OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL
GENERALLY STAY IN THE LOW TO MID 50S ACROSS MOST SPOTS TONIGHT
WITH SHOWERS MAINLY AFFECTING NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION.
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE VERY SLOWLY PROGRESSING TOWARD THE EAST
OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE GUIDANCE IS KEEPING THE SECONDARY LOW
THAT DEVELOPS WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION AT THIS POINT. HOWEVER SOME
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THAT SURFACE FEATURE WILL STREAM OUT
AHEAD BRINGING CHANCE POPS MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH
THE REST OF THE DAY SUNDAY. GIVEN PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW
EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO MAKE IT INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S
ACROSS THE FA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DTMNSTC 12Z MODELS...ARE STILL SHOWING CONSIDERABLE MODEL TO MODEL
AND RUN TO RUN VARIABILITY WITH FCST 6 HRLY QPFS FOR SUN NGT INTO
MON AS SEPARATE S/WVS FROM THE THE LOWER GREAT LKS AND THE LOWER
MID ATLC STATES PROGRESSIVELY MOVE ENE. ATTM...IT APPEARS THAT THE
MORE SRN SFC LOW WITH THE MID ATLC S/WV COULD INTERCEPT SOME OF
THE ATLC MOISTURE THAT WOULD HAVE BEEN DESTINED TO ADVECT INTO THE
SFC LOW OF THE NRN S/WV FROM THE GREAT LKS...RESULTING IN A GAP
OF LESSER RNFL OVR MUCH OF THE FA. FOR NOW WE USED THE 09Z SREF
RUN TO GAP SOME OF THESE DTMNSTC RUN TO RUN MODEL DIFFERENCES...
RESULTING IN A SOMEWHAT SMOOTHED POP DISTRIBUTION BETWEEN QPF
BULLSEYES N AND S OF THE FA...BUT THERE COULD BE AREAS OF
RELATIVELY SPOTTY RNFL IF SOME OF THE LATEST DTMNSTC MODEL RUNS
VERIFY. AFT MILD OVRNGT LOW SUN NGT...HI TEMPS MON WILL SHOW A
LITTLE GREATER SE TO NW GRADIENT DUE TO A COLD FRONT TRAVERSING
ACROSS THE REGION DURG DAYLIGHT HRS.

OTHERWISE...SUN NGT INTO MON WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED ACROSS NRN/CNTRL
PTNS OF THE FA AS WHATS LEFT OF THE GREAT LKS S/WV CROSSES THESE
PTNS OF THE FA. SUBSEQUENTLY...WE KEPT CLD CVR HIER OVR THE N AND
CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA WITH A SLGT CHC OF SHWRS. TEMPS WILL BE
COOLER MON NGT AND TUE WITH CONTD COOL LLVL ADVCN...WITH SC AND
NW WINDS PREVENTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF RADIATIONAL COOLING MON
NGT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE DOMINATED BY HIGH PRESSURE. AS
SUCH, EXPECT A STRETCH OF COOL AND DRY WEATHER. A BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT MAKES A RUN AT THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY, BUT IT
LOOKS TO BE A DRY FRONT THAT ONLY PRODUCES SOME CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM GRADUALLY THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH HIGHS TO REACH ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMALS BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: THERE WILL BE THE OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
NORTH THIS EVENING ESPECIALLY WITH HEAVIER SHOWERS. IFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE PARTICULARLY AT THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES WHERE LOW
STRATUS AND FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL
EVENTUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR/MVFR THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY.


SHORT TERM: MSLY LOW MVFR AND IFR LOW CLGS AND VSBY WITH SHWRS WILL
PREDOMINATE THE TAF SITES SUN NGT THRU MON...WITH CONDITIONS
IMPROVING TO VFR FOR DOWNEAST SITES AND AT LEAST MVFR NRN TAF
SITES MON NGT. ALL SITES SHOULD BE VFR ON TUE CONTG THRU THU.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR SEAS CONTINUES TONIGHT WITH
SEAS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 5 FT TONIGHT. OTHERWISE VIS WILL BE
REDUCED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL WATERS DUE TO FOG OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: WV HTS BUILD TO SCA AND ABV MIN SCA CRITERIA OVR MSLY
THE OUTER WATERS SUN NGT THRU MON WITH A WSWRLY WIND FETCH WHICH
WILL MSLY FEATURE WIND SPEEDS JUST BLO SCA CRITERIA OF 25 KT. WV
HTS BEGIN TO SUBSIDE LATE MON NGT TO BLO SCA CRITERIA OVR THE
OUTER WATERS ON TUE AS WINDS SHIFT TO MORE OFFSHORE...SHORTER
FETCH NW WIND DIRECTION. WENT WITH ABOUT 90 PERCENT OF WW3 WV
GUIDANCE FOR THIS FCST UPDATE.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM EDT SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT








000
FXUS61 KCAR 210223
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1023 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS WEAK LOW
PRESSURE TRACKING NORTH FROM THE MID ATLANTIC PASSES TO OUR EAST.
THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
1015 PM UPDATE...ADJUSTMENTS WERE NEEDED TO THE POPS TO HAVE THE
FIRST BATCH OF SHOWERS PULLING THROUGH NE MAINE BY MIDNIGHT AND
THEN A BREAK BEFORE MORE SHOWERS SET UP BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
DECIDED TO SHOW A SPLIT IN THE AREAL COVERAGE W/A BATCH ACROSS
NORTHERN MAINE AND ANOTHER AREA MOVING IN ACROSS THE CENTRAL
HIGHLANDS BY SUNDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN STEADY IN
THE LOW TO MID 50S ACROSS THE NORTH AND UPPER 50S INTERIOR
DOWNEAST TO THE COAST.

FOG POSSIBLE CLOSER TO THE COAST OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL
GENERALLY STAY IN THE LOW TO MID 50S ACROSS MOST SPOTS TONIGHT
WITH SHOWERS MAINLY AFFECTING NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION.
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE VERY SLOWLY PROGRESSING TOWARD THE EAST
OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE GUIDANCE IS KEEPING THE SECONDARY LOW
THAT DEVELOPS WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION AT THIS POINT. HOWEVER SOME
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THAT SURFACE FEATURE WILL STREAM OUT
AHEAD BRINGING CHANCE POPS MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH
THE REST OF THE DAY SUNDAY. GIVEN PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW
EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO MAKE IT INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S
ACROSS THE FA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DTMNSTC 12Z MODELS...ARE STILL SHOWING CONSIDERABLE MODEL TO MODEL
AND RUN TO RUN VARIABILITY WITH FCST 6 HRLY QPFS FOR SUN NGT INTO
MON AS SEPARATE S/WVS FROM THE THE LOWER GREAT LKS AND THE LOWER
MID ATLC STATES PROGRESSIVELY MOVE ENE. ATTM...IT APPEARS THAT THE
MORE SRN SFC LOW WITH THE MID ATLC S/WV COULD INTERCEPT SOME OF
THE ATLC MOISTURE THAT WOULD HAVE BEEN DESTINED TO ADVECT INTO THE
SFC LOW OF THE NRN S/WV FROM THE GREAT LKS...RESULTING IN A GAP
OF LESSER RNFL OVR MUCH OF THE FA. FOR NOW WE USED THE 09Z SREF
RUN TO GAP SOME OF THESE DTMNSTC RUN TO RUN MODEL DIFFERENCES...
RESULTING IN A SOMEWHAT SMOOTHED POP DISTRIBUTION BETWEEN QPF
BULLSEYES N AND S OF THE FA...BUT THERE COULD BE AREAS OF
RELATIVELY SPOTTY RNFL IF SOME OF THE LATEST DTMNSTC MODEL RUNS
VERIFY. AFT MILD OVRNGT LOW SUN NGT...HI TEMPS MON WILL SHOW A
LITTLE GREATER SE TO NW GRADIENT DUE TO A COLD FRONT TRAVERSING
ACROSS THE REGION DURG DAYLIGHT HRS.

OTHERWISE...SUN NGT INTO MON WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED ACROSS NRN/CNTRL
PTNS OF THE FA AS WHATS LEFT OF THE GREAT LKS S/WV CROSSES THESE
PTNS OF THE FA. SUBSEQUENTLY...WE KEPT CLD CVR HIER OVR THE N AND
CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA WITH A SLGT CHC OF SHWRS. TEMPS WILL BE
COOLER MON NGT AND TUE WITH CONTD COOL LLVL ADVCN...WITH SC AND
NW WINDS PREVENTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF RADIATIONAL COOLING MON
NGT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE DOMINATED BY HIGH PRESSURE. AS
SUCH, EXPECT A STRETCH OF COOL AND DRY WEATHER. A BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT MAKES A RUN AT THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY, BUT IT
LOOKS TO BE A DRY FRONT THAT ONLY PRODUCES SOME CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM GRADUALLY THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH HIGHS TO REACH ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMALS BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: THERE WILL BE THE OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
NORTH THIS EVENING ESPECIALLY WITH HEAVIER SHOWERS. IFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE PARTICULARLY AT THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES WHERE LOW
STRATUS AND FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL
EVENTUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR/MVFR THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY.


SHORT TERM: MSLY LOW MVFR AND IFR LOW CLGS AND VSBY WITH SHWRS WILL
PREDOMINATE THE TAF SITES SUN NGT THRU MON...WITH CONDITIONS
IMPROVING TO VFR FOR DOWNEAST SITES AND AT LEAST MVFR NRN TAF
SITES MON NGT. ALL SITES SHOULD BE VFR ON TUE CONTG THRU THU.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR SEAS CONTINUES TONIGHT WITH
SEAS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 5 FT TONIGHT. OTHERWISE VIS WILL BE
REDUCED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL WATERS DUE TO FOG OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: WV HTS BUILD TO SCA AND ABV MIN SCA CRITERIA OVR MSLY
THE OUTER WATERS SUN NGT THRU MON WITH A WSWRLY WIND FETCH WHICH
WILL MSLY FEATURE WIND SPEEDS JUST BLO SCA CRITERIA OF 25 KT. WV
HTS BEGIN TO SUBSIDE LATE MON NGT TO BLO SCA CRITERIA OVR THE
OUTER WATERS ON TUE AS WINDS SHIFT TO MORE OFFSHORE...SHORTER
FETCH NW WIND DIRECTION. WENT WITH ABOUT 90 PERCENT OF WW3 WV
GUIDANCE FOR THIS FCST UPDATE.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM EDT SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT








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