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000
FXUS61 KGYX 011909
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
309 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AND WILL
SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER AREA
OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY.
WEATHER WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS ANOTHER
AREA OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE MEANDERS OVER THE NORTHEAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL KEEP A WEAK
OVER-RUNNING PATTERN IN PLACE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY. 1ST INSTALLMENT OF ASSOCIATED PRECIP ON THE WAY THROUGH
THE REGION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST
INTO EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOOON. EXPECT STEADIER PRECIP TO TAPER TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND AREAS OF DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE MOUNTAINS MAY HANG
ON TO SHOWERS FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT IN THE VICINTY OF A STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. LOWS OVERNIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER
30S IN THE NORTH TO NEAR 40 IN THE SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG SOUTH INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON
MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION. EXPECT
RAIN FOR MUCH OF THE DAY BEFORE TAPERING OFF MONDAY EVENING. HIGH
TEMPS WILL RANGE THROUGH THE 40S TO NEAR 50.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND MONDAY NIGHT
AS ANOTHER WAVE TRACKS NORTHEAST ALONG IT. THIS MAY BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS TO SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND COASTAL MAINE
TOWARD DAYBREAK ON TUESDAY AS DIPICTED IN THE NEW GFS BUT ECMWF
KEEPS THIS PRECIP SOUTH OF THE REGION SO JUST GOING WITH LOW
CHANCE POPS FOR AFTER MIDNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT IN SOUTHERN AND
COASTAL ZONES. FARTHER NORTH...EXPECT PARTIAL CLEARING OVERNIGHT.
LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY WHICH
WILL LEAVE A FRONT STATIONARY TO OUR SOUTH. MODELS FORM A SERIES
OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERS ON THIS FRONT AND MOVE THEM IS SUCCESSION
OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THURSDAY. THE IS THE ONLY MODEL TO
MOVE PRECIPITATION UP INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF MAINE AND NEW
HAMPSHIRE ON TUESDAY WITH OVER A HALF INCH OF RAIN TUESDAY. USED A
BLEND OF MODELS TO TONE THIS DOWN TO LESS THAN 30 PERCENT CHANCE.

ON THURSDAY A DIGGING TROUGH REACHES THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
FRIDAY. THIS WILL BE CUTOFF FROM THE MAIN FLOW WITH MANY SURFACE
LOWS. IT IS QUITE IMPOSSIBLE TO TELL WHERE THE MAIN SURFACE LOW
WILL DEVELOP AND THE OVERALL TRACK AT THIS TIME. THE MODELS ARE
ALL SIMILAR BUT DIFFER IN THE DETAILS. THIS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL RUNS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...IFR/LIFR CEILINGS DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AND PERSIST
THROUGH MONDAY. BECOMING VFR MONDAY NIGHT WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR
CEILINGS IN SOUTHERN ZONES.

LONG TERM...EXPECT MVFR IN SOUTHERN AREAS EARLY TUESDAY THEN
IMPROVEMENT. EXPECT SOME FOG TO DEVELOP TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE. EXPECT MVFR/IFR OFF AND ON THROUGH FRIDAY IN
AREAS OF SHOWERS AND FOG.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...NO FLAGS.

LONG TERM...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA...
HOWEVER A PERSISTENT EASTERLY TO NORTHEAST FLOW WILL INCREASE
SEAS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SOME MUCH NEEDED WETTING RAINS EXPECTED TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY. NO FIRE ISSUES ANTICIPATED.


&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$



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000
FXUS61 KCAR 011549
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1149 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TODAY. LOW PRESSURE
WILL TRACK ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE MONDAY THEN EXIT ACROSS THE
MARITIMES TUESDAY. ANOTHER LOW WILL LIFT NORTH TOWARD THE REGION
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...
12Z KCAR RAOB SHOWS VERY DRY ATMOSPHERE THIS MORNING. LATEST
VISIBLE SAT IMAGERY SHOWS HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING IN FROM THE WEST
IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING THE FA. THE TREND FOR
INCREASING CLOUDINESS WILL CONTINUE TODAY, WITH MAINLY CLOUDY
SKIES EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION BY LATE DAY. THE GOING
FORECAST SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THINGS. RAISED HIGH TEMPS
A FEW DEGREES BASED ON CURRENT READINGS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TODAY. AT THE SAME
TIME...A TROF WILL EXTEND NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. AFTER A MOSTLY/PARTLY
SUNNY MORNING...CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS COULD ALSO REACH EXTREME WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE LOW WILL
MOVE TO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT...WHILE THE TROF REMAINS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT...PARTICULARLY ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. ALTHOUGH PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN MOSTLY RAIN...A
LITTLE SNOW COULD MIX WITH THE RAIN LATE TONIGHT ACROSS NORTHWEST
AREAS WITH LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 ACROSS MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA...WITH MID 50S ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST WHERE
ONSHORE WINDS WILL DEVELOP. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID TO UPPER 30S NORTH...TO THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40
DOWNEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS STATED BY THE DAYCREW, THE DRY SPELL IS COMING TO AN END FOR A
WHILE W/NEEDED RAINFALL.

THE GFS/ECMWF AND CANADIAN GLOBAL/GEM POINT TO OVERRUNNING EVENT
W/RAIN MOVING INTO THE REGION FROM SW TO NE ON MONDAY. HIGH PRES
CENTERED TO THE NE WILL NOSE DOWN INTO THE REGION. THIS COULD
ALLOW FOR FAR NORTHERN MAINE, SUCH AS CARIBOU TO MADAWASKA,TO BE
DRY MONDAY MORNING AS ADVERTISED BY THE NAM, WHICH IS THE OUTLIER
ON THIS EVENT. MODEL SOUNDINGS DO SHOW THE COLUMN MOISTENING
TOP-DOWN W/THE DEEPEST MOISTURE ACROSS THE SW AND DOWNEAST AREAS
WHILE NORTHERN MAINE IS SHOWN TO BE DRY BELOW 800MBS THROUGH MID
MORNING. GIVEN THIS SETUP, DECIDED TO KEEP 30-40% FOR NNE AREAS
WHILE FURTHER S AND W, POPS INCREASE TO 60% 8AM. ATMOSPHERE WILL
MOISTEN THROUGHOUT THE DAY W/RAIN OVERSPREADING THE ENTIRE REGION
BY 18Z(2PM) AS LOW PRES MOVES TOWARD THE NEW ENGLAND REGION.
DECIDED TO BRING THE POPS UP TO 80% BY THEN W/A STEADY SOAKING RAIN.
THE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE NE ALONG THE MAINE COAST INTO MONDAY
EVENING AND THEN INTO NEW BRUNSWICK LATER MONDAY NIGHT. IT LOOKS
LIKE 0.50-0.75 INCHES OF RAINFALL FOR THE CWA W/THE HEAVIEST
AMOUNTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AND DOWNEAST MAINE.

INTERESTING ENOUGH, THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE 925MBS TEMPS AOB
OC ACROSS THE N AND W INTO LATE MONDAY MORNING. THIS COMBINED
W/WHAT THE MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATED COULD LEAD TO SOME WET SNOW
FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OR AT LEAST A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW ESPECIALLY
FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF FAR NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS. THE
GFS INDICATED A PERIOD OF SNOW FOR THE ST. JOHN AREA INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON AS DOES THE 00Z ECMWF. THE CANADIAN GEM IS CLOSE TO THIS
SCENARIO AS WELL. THE BLYR WINDS WILL BE ESE ALLOWING FOR SOME
COOLER AIR TO MOVE INTO THE REGION. DECIDED TO MENTION SNOW
MIXING IN W/THE RAIN FOR THE FAR NORTHERN AREAS SUCH AS THE ST.
JOHN VALLEY AND ALLAGASH REGION. DID NOT INCLUDE ANY ACCUMULATION.
GIVEN THIS, DECIDED TO CUT MONDAY`S DAYTIME TEMPS BACK BY 5 TO 10
DEGREES LEADING A DAMP AND COLD DAY W/READINGS WELL BELOW NORMAL
FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF MAY. THE DAYCREW CAN ASSESS THIS FURTHER
TODAY W/THE LATER GUIDANCE.

THE RAIN WILL END LATER MONDAY W/THE LOW MOVING OUT OF THE REGION
W/TEMPERATURES COOLING DOWN INTO THE 30S AND AND A NNW WIND
TAKING HOLD. THERE COULD BE SOME LEFTOVER RAIN SHOWERS W/A MIX OF
RAIN AND SNOW BACK ACROSS THE FAR NW AREAS. WEAK HIGH PRES TRIES
TO NOSE INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY WILL ALLOW FOR DRIER AIR INTO
THE REGION AND SOME SUN. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO
REBOUND BACK INTO THE 50S W/THE EXCEPTION OF THE CROWN OF MAINE AS
SOME CLOUDS COULD KEEP DAYTIME READINGS IN THE UPPER 40S. A
CONTINUATION OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ANOTHER SYSTEM TO BRING THE THREAT FOR RAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY.

WEDNESDAY SHOULD FEATURE A MILDER DAY W/SUNSHINE AS HIGH PRES
HANGS ON. WE ARE TALKING ABOUT DAYTIME TEMPERATURES HITTING BACK
TO NEAR NORMAL READINGS OF 60 DEGREES OF HIGHER FOR JUST ABOUT
EVERYWHERE. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON THE INCREASE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON W/RAIN MOVING INTO THE REGION FROM S TO N AS LOW PRES
MOVES UP FROM THE MID ATLC. THE 00Z RUNS OF THE ECMWF/GFS AND
CANADIAN GLOBAL PLUS A GOOD DEAL OF THE ENSEMBLES FAVOR THIS
SCENARIO. AT ANY RATE, THIS WOULD MEAN ANOTHER ROUND OF SOAKING
RAIN. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE MILDER W/THIS SYSTEM BUT
STILL A CHILLY DAY EXPECTED ON THURSDAY W/ENE WINDS IN THE BLYR
LEADING TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM THIS SYSTEM
COULD RUN 0.25 TO 0.50 INCHES BY THE TIME IT ENDS LATER THURSDAY.
THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE FAST MOVER. DRIER AND MILDER FOR FRIDAY.

THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE THEN DIVERGES FOR THE WEEKEND W/THE ECMWF
AND SOME OF ITS ENSEMBLES SHOW A BLOCKING PATTERN SETTING UP W/LOW
PRES CLOSING TO OUR S W/A SPLIT UPPER FLOW. THIS WOULD MEAN DRIER
PATTERN FOR NEW ENGLAND. THE GFS IS SOMEWHAT SIMILAR BUT BRINGS
THE LOW FURTHER N WHICH MEAN UNSETTLED AND SHOWERY WEATHER. ATTM,
LEANED W/A CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE WHICH GAVE 30-40% POPS FOR
SHOWERS FOR THE START TO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.
CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO MVFR/IFR LEVELS ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT IN DEVELOPING RAIN.

SHORT TERM: MVFR GOING TO IFR FOR ALL TERMINALS ON MONDAY W/RAIN
AND PERHAPS A BRIEF ROUND OF SNOW FOR KFVE. CONDITIONS LOOK LIKE
THEY IMPROVE TO VFR FOR KBGR AND KBHB BY LATER MONDAY NIGHT WHILE
THE NORTHERN TERMINALS DEAL W/IFR GOING TO MVFR. VFR FOR KBGR AND
KBHB TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. NORTHERN TERMINALS WILL SEE
CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR TUESDAY NIGHT W/PERIODS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE RIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. VISIBILITIES WILL LOWER IN
DEVELOPING RAIN TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS
WINDS HIT 25 KT AND SEAS BUILD TO 6-8 FT. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
DROP OFF BELOW 20 KTS BY LATER MONDAY NIGHT. THE SEAS HOWEVER LOOK
TO STAY UP AROUND 6 FT INTO EARLY TUESDAY W/A SWELL COMPONENT.
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW SCA LEVELS BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY W/WINDS DOWN TO AROUND 10 KT AND SEAS
3-4 FT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GENERALLY EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...THOUGH
ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD BEGIN TO REACH EXTREME WESTERN AREAS LATE.
THE LOWEST HUMIDITY LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
NORTHERN AND EAST-CENTRAL AREAS...WHERE AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER
WILL PERSIST. ONSHORE WINDS FROM THE GULF OF MAINE ARE EXPECTED
TO KEEP SLIGHTLY HIGHER HUMIDITY LEVELS ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS.
RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. A
WETTING RAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION MONDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DUDA/NORCROSS
SHORT TERM...HEWITT
LONG TERM...HEWITT
AVIATION...DUDA/NORCROSS/HEWITT
MARINE...DUDA/NORCROSS/HEWITT
FIRE WEATHER...




000
FXUS61 KGYX 011547
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1147 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
TOWARD NEW ENGLAND TODAY AND TONIGHT... SPREADING RAIN INTO THE
REGION. RAINY WEATHER PERSISTS INTO MONDAY WHEN LOW PRESSURE MOVES
EAST INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OUT
OF CANADA AND THROUGH NORTHEAST NEW ENGLAND ON TUESDAY. LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF THE CAROLINAS WILL TRACK NORTHWARD INTO
NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE
OF RAIN.

&&
15Z UPDATE...
LIGHT RAIN RAIN CURRENTLY PUSHING THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE
AND THIS AREA WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTH AND EAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. HAVE ADJUSTED POP AND WX
GRIDS TO REFLECT LATEST RADAR TRENDS. ASIDE FROM A FEW TEMP/TD
TWEAKS NO FURTHER CHANGES TO THE FORECAST PLANNED ATTM.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
655 AM...NO SIGNIF CHANGES TO THE FORECAST...JUST HELD BACK THE
CHC POPS IN WRN ZONES AND OVERCAST INN GENERAL BY AND HOUR OR TWO
THIS MORNING...GIVEN CURRENT LOOK AND SAT/RADAR AND SKY
CONDITIONS. AT 11Z...10SM VIS RAIN BEGAN AT KALB...BUT HAVE TO GO
WEST TO CENTRAL NY FOR STEADIER RAIN. ALSO...THE AREA OF RAIN OVER
NY THIS MORNING...WILL BE DIMINISHING SOMEWHAT AS IT MOVES EAST.

PREVIOUSLY...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW PRECIP STRUGGLING TO MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE CT VLY TODAY. MID LVL THERMAL ADVECTION IS THE
ONLY STRONG FORCING MECHANISM AS 500MB DYNAMIC ARE WEAK AS WAVE
ALOFT MOVES INTO RIDGING...AND LOW LEVEL DRY AIR MAKES IT HARD FOR
RAIN TO REACH THE GROUND. WILL LKLY SEE SOME SHRA IN NH MIDDAY AND
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...BUT ANY PRECIP WILL TAKE TO AT LEAST LATE
AFTERNOON TO MAKE IT INTO ME. STILL WILL SEE BKN-OVC SKIES THRU
THE DAY...AND ONSHORE FLOW WILL LIMIT HIGHS TO THE LOW-MID 50S
WITH THE WARMEST SPOTS INTERIOR KENNEBEC AND PENOBSCOT VLY
REGIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
INITIAL 500MB WAVE SHEAR OUT OVERNIGHT AS IT MOVES THRU THE
RIDGE...AND COULD SEE SOME RESIDUAL SHRA FROM THIS SYSTEM THIS
EVENING...OVERALL PRECIP LOOKS LIMITED TO JUST SOME SHRA
OVERNIGHT. LOOK FOR FOG AND MAYBE SOME SPOTTY DZ TO DEVELOP AS
BOUNDARY LYR MOISTURE STARTS TO INCREASE. LOWS WILL DROP OFF A BIT
AS THERE IS A BIT OF CAA BEHIND THAT WEAKENING FIRST WAVE...BUT
SHOULD ONLY DROP TO UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S.

ON MONDAY...WILL SEE A BETTER SFC LOW DEVELOP S OF NEW ENGLAND
AND TRACK JUST S AND E OF THEN GULF OF ME. THERE WILL BE SOME WEAK
PHASING OF A 500MB WAVE TO THE N WITH THIS SYSTEM AS IT PASSES
BY...AND BEST CHC FOR RAIN WILL BE MON AFTERNOON. MAYBE A QUARTER
TO HALF INCH ON MONDAY. ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE AND IT WILL BE
COOL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S N...TO AROUND 50 IN THE S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST INTO THE MARITIMES WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN BRIEFLY BEHIND IT MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THIS WILL
BE THE BEST CHANCE IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD TO SEE FREEZING
TEMPERATURES... BUT PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LIKELY KEEP
NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA ABOVE FREEZING.

ON TUESDAY A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DIVE SOUTHWARD OUT OF
CANADA AND THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. IN PART BECAUSE OF
LINGERING TROUGHING OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES... THIS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE ABLE TO DIG SO FAR SOUTH THAT IT WILL
BEGIN TO CUT ITSELF OFF FROM THE WESTERLIES... LEAVING A SLOW
MOVING CUT OFF LOW OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE PLACEMENT OF THIS TROUGH
WILL SET UP A DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW FROM THE TROPICS. AN INITIAL
WAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE OVERALL TROUGH WILL CAUSE LOW PRESSURE TO
FORM AT THE SURFACE NEAR THE CAROLINA COAST ON WEDNESDAY...
TRACKING NORTHWARD TOWARD NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY. MODELS SEEM TO BE
COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT THAT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
WILL BE THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN DURING FOR NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...
THOUGH WITH THE CUT OFF LOW VERY SLOW TO MOVE OUT WE WILL HAVE TO
MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF RAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. COULD SEE FOG AND
DRIZZLE BEGINNING NEAR THE COAST AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY MORNING DUE
TO A MOIST ONSHORE WIND.

WITH PERSISTENT TROUGHING OVER THE AREA... TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL FOR DAYTIME HIGHS DUE TO PLENTY OF CLOUD
COVER... COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT... AND A FREQUENT ONSHORE LOW
LEVEL FLOW. LOW TEMPERATURES APPEAR LIKELY TO REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING THROUGH THE WEEKEND DUE TO THE INCREASED LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...SHOULD HANG ONTO VFR...DESPITE A FEW SHRA...AT LEAST
INTO EARLY TO MID-AFTERNOON...WITH MVFR MOVING INTO NH TERMINALS
THIS AFTERNOON...AND EVENTUALLY INTO ME THIS EVENING. WILL
PROBABLY SEE IFR CIGS DEVELOP TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH TIMING REMAINS
UNCERTAIN...BUT PROBABLY BY MIDNIGHT AT COASTAL TERMINALS...MAYBE
A LITTLE LATER. IFR SHOULD HANG ON THROUGH THE DAY
MONDAY...ALTHOUGH SOME TEMPO IMPROVEMENT MAY BE POSSIBLE MON
MORNING.

LONG TERM...SHOULD SEE IMPROVEMENT TO VFR TUESDAY. BUT AN ONSHORE
FLOW WILL START TO BRING IN LOW CLOUDS AND DRIZZLE AS EARLY AS
WEDNESDAY MORNING. EXPECT GENERALLY IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES TOWARD THE AREA AND
SPREADS RAIN INTO THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WEAK FLOW HOLD INTO TONIGHT BEFORE A SFC LOW TRACKS
JUST OF THE GULF OF THE GULF OF ME ON MONDAY AND WINDS/SEAS WILL
LIKLY REACH BORDERLINE SCA CRITERIA.

LONG TERM...EXPECT A LIGHT EASTERLY OR NORTHEASTERLY BREEZE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WINDS COULD PICK UP A BIT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS UP THE EAST COAST AND TOWARD NOVA
SCOTIA. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL ALSO BE INCREASING ON THE NORTHEASTERLY
FETCH.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW BEGINNING TODAY THROUGH MONDAY WILL MEAN
MODERATE TO HIGH RH...AND SOME SHRA ARE POSSIBLE TODAY INTO
TONIGHT...WITH WETTING RAINS EXPECTED MONDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A PERIOD OF HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES IS COMING UP FROM THURSDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE HIGHEST TIDE IS FRIDAY NIGHT WHEN
PORTLAND REACHES 11.9 FEET AT 11:35 PM. WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS
TIME PERIOD FOR POSSIBLE COASTAL FLOODING AS WINDS WILL GENERALLY
BE EASTERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY. COULD CONCEIVABLY SEE SOME COASTAL
FLOODING ISSUES AS EARLY AS THE THURSDAY EVENING TIDE DEPENDING ON
HOW THE TRACK/STRENGTH OF THE LOW SHAKES OUT.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KCAR 011332
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
932 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TODAY. LOW PRESSURE
WILL TRACK ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE MONDAY THEN EXIT ACROSS THE
MARITIMES TUESDAY. ANOTHER LOW WILL LIFT NORTH TOWARD THE REGION
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...
12Z KCAR RAOB SHOWS VERY DRY ATMOSPHERE THIS MORNING. LATEST
VISIBLE SAT IMAGERY SHOWS HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING IN FROM THE WEST
IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING THE FA. THE TREND FOR
INCREASING CLOUDINESS WILL CONTINUE TODAY, WITH MAINLY CLOUDY
SKIES EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION BY LATE DAY. THE GOING
FORECAST SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THINGS. ONLY REAL CHANGE
WAS TO TWEAK HRLY TEMPS/DEW POINTS THIS MORNING BASED ON CURRENT
CONDITIONS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TODAY. AT THE SAME
TIME...A TROF WILL EXTEND NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. AFTER A MOSTLY/PARTLY
SUNNY MORNING...CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS COULD ALSO REACH EXTREME WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE LOW WILL
MOVE TO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT...WHILE THE TROF REMAINS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT...PARTICULARLY ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. ALTHOUGH PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN MOSTLY RAIN...A
LITTLE SNOW COULD MIX WITH THE RAIN LATE TONIGHT ACROSS NORTHWEST
AREAS WITH LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 ACROSS MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA...WITH MID 50S ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST WHERE
ONSHORE WINDS WILL DEVELOP. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID TO UPPER 30S NORTH...TO THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40
DOWNEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS STATED BY THE DAYCREW, THE DRY SPELL IS COMING TO AN END FOR A
WHILE W/NEEDED RAINFALL.

THE GFS/ECMWF AND CANADIAN GLOBAL/GEM POINT TO OVERRUNNING EVENT
W/RAIN MOVING INTO THE REGION FROM SW TO NE ON MONDAY. HIGH PRES
CENTERED TO THE NE WILL NOSE DOWN INTO THE REGION. THIS COULD
ALLOW FOR FAR NORTHERN MAINE, SUCH AS CARIBOU TO MADAWASKA,TO BE
DRY MONDAY MORNING AS ADVERTISED BY THE NAM, WHICH IS THE OUTLIER
ON THIS EVENT. MODEL SOUNDINGS DO SHOW THE COLUMN MOISTENING
TOP-DOWN W/THE DEEPEST MOISTURE ACROSS THE SW AND DOWNEAST AREAS
WHILE NORTHERN MAINE IS SHOWN TO BE DRY BELOW 800MBS THROUGH MID
MORNING. GIVEN THIS SETUP, DECIDED TO KEEP 30-40% FOR NNE AREAS
WHILE FURTHER S AND W, POPS INCREASE TO 60% 8AM. ATMOSPHERE WILL
MOISTEN THROUGHOUT THE DAY W/RAIN OVERSPREADING THE ENTIRE REGION
BY 18Z(2PM) AS LOW PRES MOVES TOWARD THE NEW ENGLAND REGION.
DECIDED TO BRING THE POPS UP TO 80% BY THEN W/A STEADY SOAKING RAIN.
THE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE NE ALONG THE MAINE COAST INTO MONDAY
EVENING AND THEN INTO NEW BRUNSWICK LATER MONDAY NIGHT. IT LOOKS
LIKE 0.50-0.75 INCHES OF RAINFALL FOR THE CWA W/THE HEAVIEST
AMOUNTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AND DOWNEAST MAINE.

INTERESTING ENOUGH, THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE 925MBS TEMPS AOB
OC ACROSS THE N AND W INTO LATE MONDAY MORNING. THIS COMBINED
W/WHAT THE MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATED COULD LEAD TO SOME WET SNOW
FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OR AT LEAST A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW ESPECIALLY
FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF FAR NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS. THE
GFS INDICATED A PERIOD OF SNOW FOR THE ST. JOHN AREA INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON AS DOES THE 00Z ECMWF. THE CANADIAN GEM IS CLOSE TO THIS
SCENARIO AS WELL. THE BLYR WINDS WILL BE ESE ALLOWING FOR SOME
COOLER AIR TO MOVE INTO THE REGION. DECIDED TO MENTION SNOW
MIXING IN W/THE RAIN FOR THE FAR NORTHERN AREAS SUCH AS THE ST.
JOHN VALLEY AND ALLAGASH REGION. DID NOT INCLUDE ANY ACCUMULATION.
GIVEN THIS, DECIDED TO CUT MONDAY`S DAYTIME TEMPS BACK BY 5 TO 10
DEGREES LEADING A DAMP AND COLD DAY W/READINGS WELL BELOW NORMAL
FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF MAY. THE DAYCREW CAN ASSESS THIS FURTHER
TODAY W/THE LATER GUIDANCE.

THE RAIN WILL END LATER MONDAY W/THE LOW MOVING OUT OF THE REGION
W/TEMPERATURES COOLING DOWN INTO THE 30S AND AND A NNW WIND
TAKING HOLD. THERE COULD BE SOME LEFTOVER RAIN SHOWERS W/A MIX OF
RAIN AND SNOW BACK ACROSS THE FAR NW AREAS. WEAK HIGH PRES TRIES
TO NOSE INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY WILL ALLOW FOR DRIER AIR INTO
THE REGION AND SOME SUN. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO
REBOUND BACK INTO THE 50S W/THE EXCEPTION OF THE CROWN OF MAINE AS
SOME CLOUDS COULD KEEP DAYTIME READINGS IN THE UPPER 40S. A
CONTINUATION OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ANOTHER SYSTEM TO BRING THE THREAT FOR RAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY.

WEDNESDAY SHOULD FEATURE A MILDER DAY W/SUNSHINE AS HIGH PRES
HANGS ON. WE ARE TALKING ABOUT DAYTIME TEMPERATURES HITTING BACK
TO NEAR NORMAL READINGS OF 60 DEGREES OF HIGHER FOR JUST ABOUT
EVERYWHERE. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON THE INCREASE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON W/RAIN MOVING INTO THE REGION FROM S TO N AS LOW PRES
MOVES UP FROM THE MID ATLC. THE 00Z RUNS OF THE ECMWF/GFS AND
CANADIAN GLOBAL PLUS A GOOD DEAL OF THE ENSEMBLES FAVOR THIS
SCENARIO. AT ANY RATE, THIS WOULD MEAN ANOTHER ROUND OF SOAKING
RAIN. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE MILDER W/THIS SYSTEM BUT
STILL A CHILLY DAY EXPECTED ON THURSDAY W/ENE WINDS IN THE BLYR
LEADING TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM THIS SYSTEM
COULD RUN 0.25 TO 0.50 INCHES BY THE TIME IT ENDS LATER THURSDAY.
THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE FAST MOVER. DRIER AND MILDER FOR FRIDAY.

THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE THEN DIVERGES FOR THE WEEKEND W/THE ECMWF
AND SOME OF ITS ENSEMBLES SHOW A BLOCKING PATTERN SETTING UP W/LOW
PRES CLOSING TO OUR S W/A SPLIT UPPER FLOW. THIS WOULD MEAN DRIER
PATTERN FOR NEW ENGLAND. THE GFS IS SOMEWHAT SIMILAR BUT BRINGS
THE LOW FURTHER N WHICH MEAN UNSETTLED AND SHOWERY WEATHER. ATTM,
LEANED W/A CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE WHICH GAVE 30-40% POPS FOR
SHOWERS FOR THE START TO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.
CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO MVFR/IFR LEVELS ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT IN DEVELOPING RAIN.

SHORT TERM: MVFR GOING TO IFR FOR ALL TERMINALS ON MONDAY W/RAIN
AND PERHAPS A BRIEF ROUND OF SNOW FOR KFVE. CONDITIONS LOOK LIKE
THEY IMPROVE TO VFR FOR KBGR AND KBHB BY LATER MONDAY NIGHT WHILE
THE NORTHERN TERMINALS DEAL W/IFR GOING TO MVFR. VFR FOR KBGR AND
KBHB TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. NORTHERN TERMINALS WILL SEE
CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR TUESDAY NIGHT W/PERIODS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE RIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. VISIBILITIES WILL LOWER IN
DEVELOPING RAIN TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS
WINDS HIT 25 KT AND SEAS BUILD TO 6-8 FT. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
DROP OFF BELOW 20 KTS BY LATER MONDAY NIGHT. THE SEAS HOWEVER LOOK
TO STAY UP AROUND 6 FT INTO EARLY TUESDAY W/A SWELL COMPONENT.
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW SCA LEVELS BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY W/WINDS DOWN TO AROUND 10 KT AND SEAS
3-4 FT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GENERALLY EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...THOUGH
ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD BEGIN TO REACH EXTREME WESTERN AREAS LATE.
THE LOWEST HUMIDITY LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
NORTHERN AND EAST-CENTRAL AREAS...WHERE AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER
WILL PERSIST. ONSHORE WINDS FROM THE GULF OF MAINE ARE EXPECTED
TO KEEP SLIGHTLY HIGHER HUMIDITY LEVELS ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS.
RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. A
WETTING RAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION MONDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DUDA/NORCROSS
SHORT TERM...HEWITT
LONG TERM...HEWITT
AVIATION...DUDA/NORCROSS/HEWITT
MARINE...DUDA/NORCROSS/HEWITT
FIRE WEATHER...NORCROSS




000
FXUS61 KCAR 011101
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
701 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TODAY. LOW PRESSURE
WILL TRACK ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE MONDAY THEN EXIT ACROSS THE
MARITIMES TUESDAY. ANOTHER LOW WILL LIFT NORTH TOWARD THE REGION
WEDNESDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADJUST FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TODAY. AT THE SAME
TIME...A TROF WILL EXTEND NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. AFTER A MOSTLY/PARTLY
SUNNY MORNING...CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS COULD ALSO REACH EXTREME WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE LOW WILL
MOVE TO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT...WHILE THE TROF REMAINS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT...PARTICULARLY ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. ALTHOUGH PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN MOSTLY RAIN...A
LITTLE SNOW COULD MIX WITH THE RAIN LATE TONIGHT ACROSS NORTHWEST
AREAS WITH LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 ACROSS MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA...WITH MID 50S ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST WHERE
ONSHORE WINDS WILL DEVELOP. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID TO UPPER 30S NORTH...TO THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40
DOWNEAST.
&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS STATED BY THE DAYCREW, THE DRY SPELL IS COMING TO AN END FOR A
WHILE W/NEEDED RAINFALL.

THE GFS/ECMWF AND CANADIAN GLOBAL/GEM POINT TO OVERRUNNING EVENT
W/RAIN MOVING INTO THE REGION FROM SW TO NE ON MONDAY. HIGH PRES
CENTERED TO THE NE WILL NOSE DOWN INTO THE REGION. THIS COULD
ALLOW FOR FAR NORTHERN MAINE, SUCH AS CARIBOU TO MADAWASKA,TO BE
DRY MONDAY MORNING AS ADVERTISED BY THE NAM, WHICH IS THE OUTLIER
ON THIS EVENT. MODEL SOUNDINGS DO SHOW THE COLUMN MOISTENING
TOP-DOWN W/THE DEEPEST MOISTURE ACROSS THE SW AND DOWNEAST AREAS
WHILE NORTHERN MAINE IS SHOWN TO BE DRY BELOW 800MBS THROUGH MID
MORNING. GIVEN THIS SETUP, DECIDED TO KEEP 30-40% FOR NNE AREAS
WHILE FURTHER S AND W, POPS INCREASE TO 60% 8AM. ATMOSPHERE WILL
MOISTEN THROUGHOUT THE DAY W/RAIN OVERSPREADING THE ENTIRE REGION
BY 18Z(2PM) AS LOW PRES MOVES TOWARD THE NEW ENGLAND REGION.
DECIDED TO BRING THE POPS UP TO 80% BY THEN W/A STEADY SOAKING RAIN.
THE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE NE ALONG THE MAINE COAST INTO MONDAY
EVENING AND THEN INTO NEW BRUNSWICK LATER MONDAY NIGHT. IT LOOKS
LIKE 0.50-0.75 INCHES OF RAINFALL FOR THE CWA W/THE HEAVIEST
AMOUNTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AND DOWNEAST MAINE.

INTERESTING ENOUGH, THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE 925MBS TEMPS AOB
OC ACROSS THE N AND W INTO LATE MONDAY MORNING. THIS COMBINED
W/WHAT THE MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATED COULD LEAD TO SOME WET SNOW
FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OR AT LEAST A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW ESPECIALLY
FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF FAR NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS. THE
GFS INDICATED A PERIOD OF SNOW FOR THE ST. JOHN AREA INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON AS DOES THE 00Z ECMWF. THE CANADIAN GEM IS CLOSE TO THIS
SCENARIO AS WELL. THE BLYR WINDS WILL BE ESE ALLOWING FOR SOME
COOLER AIR TO MOVE INTO THE REGION. DECIDED TO MENTION SNOW
MIXING IN W/THE RAIN FOR THE FAR NORTHERN AREAS SUCH AS THE ST.
JOHN VALLEY AND ALLAGASH REGION. DID NOT INCLUDE ANY ACCUMULATION.
GIVEN THIS, DECIDED TO CUT MONDAY`S DAYTIME TEMPS BACK BY 5 TO 10
DEGREES LEADING A DAMP AND COLD DAY W/READINGS WELL BELOW NORMAL
FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF MAY. THE DAYCREW CAN ASSESS THIS FURTHER
TODAY W/THE LATER GUIDANCE.

THE RAIN WILL END LATER MONDAY W/THE LOW MOVING OUT OF THE REGION
W/TEMPERATURES COOLING DOWN INTO THE 30S AND AND A NNW WIND
TAKING HOLD. THERE COULD BE SOME LEFTOVER RAIN SHOWERS W/A MIX OF
RAIN AND SNOW BACK ACROSS THE FAR NW AREAS. WEAK HIGH PRES TRIES
TO NOSE INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY WILL ALLOW FOR DRIER AIR INTO
THE REGION AND SOME SUN. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO
REBOUND BACK INTO THE 50S W/THE EXCEPTION OF THE CROWN OF MAINE AS
SOME CLOUDS COULD KEEP DAYTIME READINGS IN THE UPPER 40S. A
CONTINUATION OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPS.
&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ANOTHER SYSTEM TO BRING THE THREAT FOR RAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY.

WEDNESDAY SHOULD FEATURE A MILDER DAY W/SUNSHINE AS HIGH PRES
HANGS ON. WE ARE TALKING ABOUT DAYTIME TEMPERATURES HITTING BACK
TO NEAR NORMAL READINGS OF 60 DEGREES OF HIGHER FOR JUST ABOUT
EVERYWHERE. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON THE INCREASE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON W/RAIN MOVING INTO THE REGION FROM S TO N AS LOW PRES
MOVES UP FROM THE MID ATLC. THE 00Z RUNS OF THE ECMWF/GFS AND
CANADIAN GLOBAL PLUS A GOOD DEAL OF THE ENSEMBLES FAVOR THIS
SCENARIO. AT ANY RATE, THIS WOULD MEAN ANOTHER ROUND OF SOAKING
RAIN. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE MILDER W/THIS SYSTEM BUT
STILL A CHILLY DAY EXPECTED ON THURSDAY W/ENE WINDS IN THE BLYR
LEADING TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM THIS SYSTEM
COULD RUN 0.25 TO 0.50 INCHES BY THE TIME IT ENDS LATER THURSDAY.
THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE FAST MOVER. DRIER AND MILDER FOR FRIDAY.

THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE THEN DIVERGES FOR THE WEEKEND W/THE ECMWF
AND SOME OF ITS ENSEMBLES SHOW A BLOCKING PATTERN SETTING UP W/LOW
PRES CLOSING TO OUR S W/A SPLIT UPPER FLOW. THIS WOULD MEAN DRIER
PATTERN FOR NEW ENGLAND. THE GFS IS SOMEWHAT SIMILAR BUT BRINGS
THE LOW FURTHER N WHICH MEAN UNSETTLED AND SHOWERY WEATHER. ATTM,
LEANED W/A CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE WHICH GAVE 30-40% POPS FOR
SHOWERS FOR THE START TO THE WEEKEND.
&&

.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: LOCALLY VARIABLE CONDITIONS...RANGING FROM MVFR TO
LIFR...COULD OCCUR WITH ANY PATCHY FOG DOWNEAST EARLY THIS
MORNING. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY. CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO MVFR/IFR LEVELS ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: MVFR GOING TO IFR FOR ALL TERMINALS ON MONDAY W/RAIN
AND PERHAPS A BRIEF ROUND OF SNOW FOR KFVE. CONDITIONS LOOK LIKE
THEY IMPROVE TO VFR FOR KBGR AND KBHB BY LATER MONDAY NIGHT WHILE
THE NORTHERN TERMINALS DEAL W/IFR GOING TO MVFR. VFR FOR KBGR AND
KBHB TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. NORTHERN TERMINALS WILL SEE
CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR TUESDAY NIGHT W/PERIODS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE RIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. VISIBILITIES WILL LOWER IN
DEVELOPING RAIN TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS
WINDS HIT 25 KT AND SEAS BUILD TO 6-8 FT. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
DROP OFF BELOW 20 KTS BY LATER MONDAY NIGHT. THE SEAS HOWEVER LOOK
TO STAY UP AROUND 6 FT INTO EARLY TUESDAY W/A SWELL COMPONENT.
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW SCA LEVELS BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY W/WINDS DOWN TO AROUND 10 KT AND SEAS
3-4 FT.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GENERALLY EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...THOUGH
ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD BEGIN TO REACH EXTREME WESTERN AREAS LATE.
THE LOWEST HUMIDITY LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
NORTHERN AND EAST-CENTRAL AREAS...WHERE AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER
WILL PERSIST. ONSHORE WINDS FROM THE GULF OF MAINE ARE EXPECTED
TO KEEP SLIGHTLY HIGHER HUMIDITY LEVELS ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS.
RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. A
WETTING RAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION MONDAY.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...NORCROSS
SHORT TERM...HEWITT
LONG TERM...HEWITT
AVIATION...NORCROSS/HEWITT
MARINE...NORCROSS/HEWITT
FIRE WEATHER...NORCROSS




000
FXUS61 KGYX 011059
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
659 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
TOWARD NEW ENGLAND TODAY AND TONIGHT... SPREADING RAIN INTO THE
REGION. RAINY WEATHER PERSISTS INTO MONDAY WHEN LOW PRESSURE MOVES
EAST INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OUT
OF CANADA AND THROUGH NORTHEAST NEW ENGLAND ON TUESDAY. LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF THE CAROLINAS WILL TRACK NORTHWARD INTO
NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE
OF RAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
655 AM...NO SIGNIF CHANGES TO THE FORECAST...JUST HELD BACK THE
CHC POPS IN WRN ZONES AND OVERCAST INN GENERAL BY AND HOUR OR TWO
THIS MORNING...GIVEN CURRENT LOOK AND SAT/RADAR AND SKY
CONDITIONS. AT 11Z...10SM VIS RAIN BEGAN AT KALB...BUT HAVE TO GO
WEST TO CENTRAL NY FOR STEADIER RAIN. ALSO...THE AREA OF RAIN OVER
NY THIS MORNING...WILL BE DIMINISHING SOMEWHAT AS IT MOVES EAST.

PREVIOUSLY...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW PRECIP STRUGGLING TO MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE CT VLY TODAY. MID LVL THERMAL ADVECTION IS THE
ONLY STRONG FORCING MECHANISM AS 500MB DYNAMIC ARE WEAK AS WAVE
ALOFT MOVES INTO RIDGING...AND LOW LEVEL DRY AIR MAKES IT HARD FOR
RAIN TO REACH THE GROUND. WILL LKLY SEE SOME SHRA IN NH MIDDAY AND
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...BUT ANY PRECIP WILL TAKE TO AT LEAST LATE
AFTERNOON TO MAKE IT INTO ME. STILL WILL SEE BKN-OVC SKIES THRU
THE DAY...AND ONSHORE FLOW WILL LIMIT HIGHS TO THE LOW-MID 50S
WITH THE WARMEST SPOTS INTERIOR KENNEBEC AND PENOBSCOT VLY
REGIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
INITIAL 500MB WAVE SHEAR OUT OVERNIGHT AS IT MOVES THRU THE
RIDGE...AND COULD SEE SOME RESIDUAL SHRA FROM THIS SYSTEM THIS
EVENING...OVERALL PRECIP LOOKS LIMITED TO JUST SOME SHRA
OVERNIGHT. LOOK FOR FOG AND MAYBE SOME SPOTTY DZ TO DEVELOP AS
BOUNDARY LYR MOISTURE STARTS TO INCREASE. LOWS WILL DROP OFF A BIT
AS THERE IS A BIT OF CAA BEHIND THAT WEAKENING FIRST WAVE...BUT
SHOULD ONLY DROP TO UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S.

ON MONDAY...WILL SEE A BETTER SFC LOW DEVELOP S OF NEW ENGLAND
AND TRACK JUST S AND E OF THEN GULF OF ME. THERE WILL BE SOME WEAK
PHASING OF A 500MB WAVE TO THE N WITH THIS SYSTEM AS IT PASSES
BY...AND BEST CHC FOR RAIN WILL BE MON AFTERNOON. MAYBE A QUARTER
TO HALF INCH ON MONDAY. ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE AND IT WILL BE
COOL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S N...TO AROUND 50 IN THE S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST INTO THE MARITIMES WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN BRIEFLY BEHIND IT MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THIS WILL
BE THE BEST CHANCE IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD TO SEE FREEZING
TEMPERATURES... BUT PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LIKELY KEEP
NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA ABOVE FREEZING.

ON TUESDAY A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DIVE SOUTHWARD OUT OF
CANADA AND THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. IN PART BECAUSE OF
LINGERING TROUGHING OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES... THIS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE ABLE TO DIG SO FAR SOUTH THAT IT WILL
BEGIN TO CUT ITSELF OFF FROM THE WESTERLIES... LEAVING A SLOW
MOVING CUT OFF LOW OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE PLACEMENT OF THIS TROUGH
WILL SET UP A DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW FROM THE TROPICS. AN INITIAL
WAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE OVERALL TROUGH WILL CAUSE LOW PRESSURE TO
FORM AT THE SURFACE NEAR THE CAROLINA COAST ON WEDNESDAY...
TRACKING NORTHWARD TOWARD NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY. MODELS SEEM TO BE
COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT THAT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
WILL BE THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN DURING FOR NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...
THOUGH WITH THE CUT OFF LOW VERY SLOW TO MOVE OUT WE WILL HAVE TO
MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF RAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. COULD SEE FOG AND
DRIZZLE BEGINNING NEAR THE COAST AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY MORNING DUE
TO A MOIST ONSHORE WIND.

WITH PERSISTENT TROUGHING OVER THE AREA... TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL FOR DAYTIME HIGHS DUE TO PLENTY OF CLOUD
COVER... COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT... AND A FREQUENT ONSHORE LOW
LEVEL FLOW. LOW TEMPERATURES APPEAR LIKELY TO REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING THROUGH THE WEEKEND DUE TO THE INCREASED LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...SHOULD HANG ONTO VFR...DESPITE A FEW SHRA...AT LEAST
INTO EARLY TO MID-AFTERNOON...WITH MVFR MOVING INTO NH TERMINALS
THIS AFTERNOON...AND EVENTUALLY INTO ME THIS EVENING. WILL
PROBABLY SEE IFR CIGS DEVELOP TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH TIMING REMAINS
UNCERTAIN...BUT PROBABLY BY MIDNIGHT AT COASTAL TERMINALS...MAYBE
A LITTLE LATER. IFR SHOULD HANG ON THROUGH THE DAY
MONDAY...ALTHOUGH SOME TEMPO IMPROVEMENT MAY BE POSSIBLE MON
MORNING.

LONG TERM...SHOULD SEE IMPROVEMENT TO VFR TUESDAY. BUT AN ONSHORE
FLOW WILL START TO BRING IN LOW CLOUDS AND DRIZZLE AS EARLY AS
WEDNESDAY MORNING. EXPECT GENERALLY IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES TOWARD THE AREA AND
SPREADS RAIN INTO THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WEAK FLOW HOLD INTO TONIGHT BEFORE A SFC LOW TRACKS
JUST OF THE GULF OF THE GULF OF ME ON MONDAY AND WINDS/SEAS WILL
LIKLY REACH BORDERLINE SCA CRITERIA.

LONG TERM...EXPECT A LIGHT EASTERLY OR NORTHEASTERLY BREEZE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WINDS COULD PICK UP A BIT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS UP THE EAST COAST AND TOWARD NOVA
SCOTIA. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL ALSO BE INCREASING ON THE NORTHEASTERLY
FETCH.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW BEGINNING TODAY THROUGH MONDAY WILL MEAN
MODERATE TO HIGH RH...AND SOME SHRA ARE POSSIBLE TODAY INTO
TONIGHT...WITH WETTING RAINS EXPECTED MONDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A PERIOD OF HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES IS COMING UP FROM THURSDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE HIGHEST TIDE IS FRIDAY NIGHT WHEN
PORTLAND REACHES 11.9 FEET AT 11:35 PM. WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS
TIME PERIOD FOR POSSIBLE COASTAL FLOODING AS WINDS WILL GENERALLY
BE EASTERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY. COULD CONCEIVABLY SEE SOME COASTAL
FLOODING ISSUES AS EARLY AS THE THURSDAY EVENING TIDE DEPENDING ON
HOW THE TRACK/STRENGTH OF THE LOW SHAKES OUT.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...CEMPA
LONG TERM...KIMBLE
AVIATION...
MARINE...
FIRE WEATHER...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KCAR 010903
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
503 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TODAY. LOW PRESSURE
WILL TRACK ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE MONDAY THEN EXIT ACROSS THE
MARITIMES TUESDAY. ANOTHER LOW WILL LIFT NORTH TOWARD THE REGION
WEDNESDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TODAY. AT THE SAME
TIME...A TROF WILL EXTEND NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. AFTER A MOSTLY/PARTLY
SUNNY MORNING...CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS COULD ALSO REACH EXTREME WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE LOW WILL
MOVE TO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT...WHILE THE TROF REMAINS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT...PARTICULARLY ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. ALTHOUGH PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN MOSTLY RAIN...A
LITTLE SNOW COULD MIX WITH THE RAIN LATE TONIGHT ACROSS NORTHWEST
AREAS WITH LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 ACROSS MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA...WITH MID 50S ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST WHERE
ONSHORE WINDS WILL DEVELOP. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID TO UPPER 30S NORTH...TO THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40
DOWNEAST.
&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS STATED BY THE DAYCREW, THE DRY SPELL IS COMING TO AN END FOR A
WHILE W/NEEDED RAINFALL.

THE GFS/ECMWF AND CANADIAN GLOBAL/GEM POINT TO OVERRUNNING EVENT
W/RAIN MOVING INTO THE REGION FROM SW TO NE ON MONDAY. HIGH PRES
CENTERED TO THE NE WILL NOSE DOWN INTO THE REGION. THIS COULD
ALLOW FOR FAR NORTHERN MAINE, SUCH AS CARIBOU TO MADAWASKA,TO BE
DRY MONDAY MORNING AS ADVERTISED BY THE NAM, WHICH IS THE OUTLIER
ON THIS EVENT. MODEL SOUNDINGS DO SHOW THE COLUMN MOISTENING
TOP-DOWN W/THE DEEPEST MOISTURE ACROSS THE SW AND DOWNEAST AREAS
WHILE NORTHERN MAINE IS SHOWN TO BE DRY BELOW 800MBS THROUGH MID
MORNING. GIVEN THIS SETUP, DECIDED TO KEEP 30-40% FOR NNE AREAS
WHILE FURTHER S AND W, POPS INCREASE TO 60% 8AM. ATMOSPHERE WILL
MOISTEN THROUGHOUT THE DAY W/RAIN OVERSPREADING THE ENTIRE REGION
BY 18Z(2PM) AS LOW PRES MOVES TOWARD THE NEW ENGLAND REGION.
DECIDED TO BRING THE POPS UP TO 80% BY THEN W/A STEADY SOAKING RAIN.
THE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE NE ALONG THE MAINE COAST INTO MONDAY
EVENING AND THEN INTO NEW BRUNSWICK LATER MONDAY NIGHT. IT LOOKS
LIKE 0.50-0.75 INCHES OF RAINFALL FOR THE CWA W/THE HEAVIEST
AMOUNTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AND DOWNEAST MAINE.

INTERESTING ENOUGH, THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE 925MBS TEMPS AOB
OC ACROSS THE N AND W INTO LATE MONDAY MORNING. THIS COMBINED
W/WHAT THE MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATED COULD LEAD TO SOME WET SNOW
FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OR AT LEAST A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW ESPECIALLY
FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF FAR NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS. THE
GFS INDICATED A PERIOD OF SNOW FOR THE ST. JOHN AREA INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON AS DOES THE 00Z ECMWF. THE CANADIAN GEM IS CLOSE TO THIS
SCENARIO AS WELL. THE BLYR WINDS WILL BE ESE ALLOWING FOR SOME
COOLER AIR TO MOVE INTO THE REGION. DECIDED TO MENTION SNOW
MIXING IN W/THE RAIN FOR THE FAR NORTHERN AREAS SUCH AS THE ST.
JOHN VALLEY AND ALLAGASH REGION. DID NOT INCLUDE ANY ACCUMULATION.
GIVEN THIS, DECIDED TO CUT MONDAY`S DAYTIME TEMPS BACK BY 5 TO 10
DEGREES LEADING A DAMP AND COLD DAY W/READINGS WELL BELOW NORMAL
FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF MAY. THE DAYCREW CAN ASSESS THIS FURTHER
TODAY W/THE LATER GUIDANCE.

THE RAIN WILL END LATER MONDAY W/THE LOW MOVING OUT OF THE REGION
W/TEMPERATURES COOLING DOWN INTO THE 30S AND AND A NNW WIND
TAKING HOLD. THERE COULD BE SOME LEFTOVER RAIN SHOWERS W/A MIX OF
RAIN AND SNOW BACK ACROSS THE FAR NW AREAS. WEAK HIGH PRES TRIES
TO NOSE INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY WILL ALLOW FOR DRIER AIR INTO
THE REGION AND SOME SUN. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO
REBOUND BACK INTO THE 50S W/THE EXCEPTION OF THE CROWN OF MAINE AS
SOME CLOUDS COULD KEEP DAYTIME READINGS IN THE UPPER 40S. A
CONTINUATION OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPS.
&&

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ANOTHER SYSTEM TO BRING THE THREAT FOR RAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY.

WEDNESDAY SHOULD FEATURE A MILDER DAY W/SUNSHINE AS HIGH PRES
HANGS ON. WE ARE TALKING ABOUT DAYTIME TEMPERATURES HITTING BACK
TO NEAR NORMAL READINGS OF 60 DEGREES OF HIGHER FOR JUST ABOUT
EVERYWHERE. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON THE INCREASE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON W/RAIN MOVING INTO THE REGION FROM S TO N AS LOW PRES
MOVES UP FROM THE MID ATLC. THE 00Z RUNS OF THE ECMWF/GFS AND
CANADIAN GLOBAL PLUS A GOOD DEAL OF THE ENSEMBLES FAVOR THIS
SCENARIO. AT ANY RATE, THIS WOULD MEAN ANOTHER ROUND OF SOAKING
RAIN. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE MILDER W/THIS SYSTEM BUT
STILL A CHILLY DAY EXPECTED ON THURSDAY W/ENE WINDS IN THE BLYR
LEADING TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM THIS SYSTEM
COULD RUN 0.25 TO 0.50 INCHES BY THE TIME IT ENDS LATER THURSDAY.
THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE FAST MOVER. DRIER AND MILDER FOR FRIDAY.

THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE THEN DIVERGES FOR THE WEEKEND W/THE ECMWF
AND SOME OF ITS ENSEMBLES SHOW A BLOCKING PATTERN SETTING UP W/LOW
PRES CLOSING TO OUR S W/A SPLIT UPPER FLOW. THIS WOULD MEAN DRIER
PATTERN FOR NEW ENGLAND. THE GFS IS SOMEWHAT SIMILAR BUT BRINGS
THE LOW FURTHER N WHICH MEAN UNSETTLED AND SHOWERY WEATHER. ATTM,
LEANED W/A CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE WHICH GAVE 30-40% POPS FOR
SHOWERS FOR THE START TO THE WEEKEND.
&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: LOCALLY VARIABLE CONDITIONS...RANGING FROM MVFR TO
LIFR...COULD OCCUR WITH ANY PATCHY FOG DOWNEAST EARLY THIS
MORNING. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY. CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO MVFR/IFR LEVELS ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: MVFR GOING TO IFR FOR ALL TERMINALS ON MONDAY W/RAIN
AND PERHAPS A BRIEF ROUND OF SNOW FOR KFVE. CONDITIONS LOOK LIKE
THEY IMPROVE TO VFR FOR KBGR AND KBHB BY LATER MONDAY NIGHT WHILE
THE NORTHERN TERMINALS DEAL W/IFR GOING TO MVFR. VFR FOR KBGR AND
KBHB TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. NORTHERN TERMINALS WILL SEE
CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR TUESDAY NIGHT W/PERIODS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE RIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. VISIBILITIES WILL LOWER IN
DEVELOPING RAIN TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS
WINDS HIT 25 KT AND SEAS BUILD TO 6-8 FT. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
DROP OFF BELOW 20 KTS BY LATER MONDAY NIGHT. THE SEAS HOWEVER LOOK
TO STAY UP AROUND 6 FT INTO EARLY TUESDAY W/A SWELL COMPONENT.
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW SCA LEVELS BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY W/WINDS DOWN TO AROUND 10 KT AND SEAS
3-4 FT.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GENERALLY EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...THOUGH
ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD BEGIN TO REACH EXTREME WESTERN AREAS LATE.
THE LOWEST HUMIDITY LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
NORTHERN AND EAST-CENTRAL AREAS...WHERE AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER
WILL PERSIST. ONSHORE WINDS FROM THE GULF OF MAINE ARE EXPECTED
TO KEEP SLIGHTLY HIGHER HUMIDITY LEVELS ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS.
RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. A
WETTING RAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION MONDAY.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...NORCROSS
SHORT TERM...HEWITT
LONG TERM...HEWITT
AVIATION...NORCROSS/HEWITT
MARINE...NORCROSS/HEWITT
FIRE WEATHER...NORCROSS




000
FXUS61 KGYX 010729
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
329 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
TOWARD NEW ENGLAND TODAY AND TONIGHT... SPREADING RAIN INTO THE
REGION. RAINY WEATHER PERSISTS INTO MONDAY WHEN LOW PRESSURE MOVES
EAST INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OUT
OF CANADA AND THROUGH NORTHEAST NEW ENGLAND ON TUESDAY. LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF THE CAROLINAS WILL TRACK NORTHWARD INTO
NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE
OF RAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW PRECIP STRUGGLING TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
CT VLY TODAY. MID LVL THERMAL ADVECTION IS THE ONLY STRONG
FORCING MECHANISM AS 500MB DYNAMIC ARE WEAK AS WAVE ALOFT MOVES
INTO RIDGING...AND LOW LEVEL DRY AIR MAKES IT HARD FOR RAIN TO
REACH THE GROUND. WILL LKLY SEE SOME SHRA IN NH MIDDAY AND THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON...BUT ANY PRECIP WILL TAKE TO AT LEAST LATE
AFTERNOON TO MAKE IT INTO ME. STILL WILL SEE BKN-OVC SKIES THRU
THE DAY...AND ONSHORE FLOW WILL LIMIT HIGHS TO THE LOW-MID 50S
WITH THE WARMEST SPOTS INTERIOR KENNEBEC AND PENOBSCOT VLY
REGIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND MONDAY/...
INITIAL 500MB WAVE SHEAR OUT OVERNIGHT AS IT MOVES THRU THE
RIDGE...AND COULD SEE SOME RESIDUAL SHRA FROM THIS SYSTEM THIS
EVENING...OVERALL PRECIP LOOKS LIMITED TO JUST SOME SHRA
OVERNIGHT. LOOK FOR FOG AND MAYBE SOME SPOTTY DZ TO DEVELOP AS
BOUNDARY LYR MOISTURE STARTS TO INCREASE. LOWS WILL DROP OFF A BIT
AS THERE IS A BIT OF CAA BEHIND THAT WEAKENING FIRST WAVE...BUT
SHOULD ONLY DROP TO UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S.

ON MONDAY...WILL SEE A BETTER SFC LOW DEVELOP S OF NEW ENGLAND
AND TRACK JUST S AND E OF THEN GULF OF ME. THERE WILL BE SOME WEAK
PHASING OF A 500MB WAVE TO THE N WITH THIS SYSTEM AS IT PASSES
BY...AND BEST CHC FOR RAIN WILL BE MON AFTERNOON. MAYBE A QUARTER
TO HALF INCH ON MONDAY. ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE AND IT WILL BE
COOL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S N...TO AROUND 50 IN THE S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST INTO THE MARITIMES WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN BRIEFLY BEHIND IT MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THIS WILL
BE THE BEST CHANCE IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD TO SEE FREEZING
TEMPERATURES... BUT PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LIKELY KEEP
NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA ABOVE FREEZING.

ON TUESDAY A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DIVE SOUTHWARD OUT OF
CANADA AND THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. IN PART BECAUSE OF
LINGERING TROUGHING OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES... THIS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE ABLE TO DIG SO FAR SOUTH THAT IT WILL
BEGIN TO CUT ITSELF OFF FROM THE WESTERLIES... LEAVING A SLOW
MOVING CUT OFF LOW OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE PLACEMENT OF THIS TROUGH
WILL SET UP A DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW FROM THE TROPICS. AN INITIAL
WAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE OVERALL TROUGH WILL CAUSE LOW PRESSURE TO
FORM AT THE SURFACE NEAR THE CAROLINA COAST ON WEDNESDAY...
TRACKING NORTHWARD TOWARD NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY. MODELS SEEM TO BE
COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT THAT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
WILL BE THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN DURING FOR NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...
THOUGH WITH THE CUT OFF LOW VERY SLOW TO MOVE OUT WE WILL HAVE TO
MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF RAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. COULD SEE FOG AND
DRIZZLE BEGINNING NEAR THE COAST AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY MORNING DUE
TO A MOIST ONSHORE WIND.

WITH PERSISTENT TROUGHING OVER THE AREA... TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL FOR DAYTIME HIGHS DUE TO PLENTY OF CLOUD
COVER... COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT... AND A FREQUENT ONSHORE LOW
LEVEL FLOW. LOW TEMPERATURES APPEAR LIKELY TO REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING THROUGH THE WEEKEND DUE TO THE INCREASED LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...SHOULD HANG ONTO VFR...DESPITE A FEW SHRA...AT LEAST
INTO EARLY TO MID-AFTERNOON...WITH MVFR MOVING INTO NH TERMINALS
THIS AFTERNOON...AND EVENTUALLY INTO ME THIS EVENING. WILL
PROBABLY SEE IFR CIGS DEVELOP TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH TIMING REMAINS
UNCERTAIN...BUT PROBABLY BY MIDNIGHT AT COASTAL TERMINALS...MAYBE
A LITTLE LATER. IFR SHOULD HANG ON THROUGH THE DAY
MONDAY...ALTHOUGH SOME TEMPO IMPROVEMENT MAY BE POSSIBLE MON
MORNING.

LONG TERM...SHOULD SEE IMPROVEMENT TO VFR TUESDAY. BUT AN ONSHORE
FLOW WILL START TO BRING IN LOW CLOUDS AND DRIZZLE AS EARLY AS
WEDNESDAY MORNING. EXPECT GENERALLY IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES TOWARD THE AREA AND
SPREADS RAIN INTO THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WEAK FLOW HOLD INTO TONIGHT BEFORE A SFC LOW TRACKS
JUST OF THE GULF OF THE GULF OF ME ON MONDAY AND WINDS/SEAS WILL
LIKLY REACH BORDERLINE SCA CRITERIA.

LONG TERM...EXPECT A LIGHT EASTERLY OR NORTHEASTERLY BREEZE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WINDS COULD PICK UP A BIT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS UP THE EAST COAST AND TOWARD NOVA
SCOTIA. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL ALSO BE INCREASING ON THE NORTHEASTERLY
FETCH.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW BEGINNING TODAY THROUGH MONDAY WILL MEAN
MODERATE TO HIGH RH...AND SOME SHRA ARE POSSIBLE TODAY INTO
TONIGHT...WITH WETTING RAINS EXPECTED MONDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A PERIOD OF HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES IS COMING UP FROM THURSDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE HIGHEST TIDE IS FRIDAY NIGHT WHEN
PORTLAND REACHES 11.9 FEET AT 11:35 PM. WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS
TIME PERIOD FOR POSSIBLE COASTAL FLOODING AS WINDS WILL GENERALLY
BE EASTERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY. COULD CONCEIVABLY SEE SOME COASTAL
FLOODING ISSUES AS EARLY AS THE THURSDAY EVENING TIDE DEPENDING ON
HOW THE TRACK/STRENGTH OF THE LOW SHAKES OUT.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...CEMPA
LONG TERM...KIMBLE




000
FXUS61 KCAR 010443
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1243 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE IN THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY EVENING
WILL TRACK ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE MONDAY THEN EXIT ACROSS THE
MARITIMES MONDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH
FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. COULD ALSO HAVE
PATCHY FOG LATE DOWNEAST. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30 NORTH...TO THE LOWER TO MID 30S
DOWNEAST. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADJUST FOR CURRENT
CONDITIONS ALONG WITH OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES AND CLOUD COVER.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST SUNDAY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS IN
ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE FROM THE WEST. THE AIR MASS
WILL STILL BE RATHER DRY INITIALLY THUS WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE
UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 DEGREES, EXCEPT ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 50S
ALONG THE COAST.
&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AFTER ONE OF THE LONGEST STRETCHES OF DRY WEATHER ON RECORD AT
CARIBOU SOME MUCH NEEDED RAIN IS ON THE WAY. LOW PRESSURE ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY SUN EVENING IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE GULF OF
MAINE MON AFTERNOON AND EXIT INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES LATE MON
NIGHT AND TUE. THIS WILL BRING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO THE
REGION, ESPECIALLY MON AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY EVENING. WELL AHEAD
OF LOW SOME LIGHTER PRECIPITATION MAY FALL SUN NIGHT INTO MON
MORNING, MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN. A LITTLE WET SNOW IS POSSIBLE
SUN NIGHT ACROSS FAR NORTHERN AREAS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN, BUT ACCUMULATIONS ARE NOT LIKELY. THE RAIN WILL TAPER
BACK TO SHOWERS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH MON NIGHT WITH DRIER WEATHER
TUE, ALTHOUGH A PASSING SHOWER WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS. THE MAIN UPDATE THIS TERM WAS TO
INCREASE THE POPS TO CATEGORICAL AS MOST AREAS WILL LIKELY PICK UP
A GOOD HALF INCH TO TO INCH OF RAINFALL, AND POSSIBLY A BIT MORE
FOR SOME OF THE UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS. AMOUNTS
MAY ONLY BE IN THE QUARTER TO HALF INCH RANGE ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST
MAINE.
&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE AN UNSETTLED ONE DURING MUCH OF THE
LONG TERM. ANOTHER INCOMING LOW FROM THE WEST WILL LIKELY SPREAD
SOME MORE SHOWERS OR RAIN ACROSS THE AREA LATE TUE NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW, AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO
NEW ENGLAND LATE IN THE WEEK INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEKEND. THIS
WILL KEEP THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST, ALTHOUGH SPECIFIC
SHORTWAVE DETAILS REMAIN UNCERTAIN. IT DOES LOOK LIKE THE MAJORITY
OF THE TIME WILL BE RAIN-FREE. TEMPERATURES MID TO LATE WEEK ARE
EXPECTED TO BE NEAR AVERAGE FOR EARLY MAY.
&&

.AVIATION /04Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: LOCALLY VARIABLE CONDITIONS...RANGING FROM MVFR TO
LIFR...COULD OCCUR WITH ANY PATCHY FOG DOWNEAST LATE TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

SHORT TERM: CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO MVFR AND AT TIMES IFR IN RAIN
AND PATCHY FOG MON INTO MON EVENING, WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT LIKELY
LATE MON NIGHT OR TUE TO MVFR TO VFR. CONDITIONS MID TO LATE WEEK
WILL BE MOSTLY BE VFR WITH TIMES OF MVFR IN SHOWERS.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

SHORT TERM: A PERIOD OF SCA LEVEL WIND AND SEAS EXPECTED MON
AFTERNOON INTO MON NIGHT AS LOW PRES APPROACHES AND THEN MOVES
ACROSS THE WATERS. CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BE BELOW SCA LEVELS MID-
LATE WEEK.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY...
MSLY FOR NRN AND E CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA...WHERE WE WILL LIKELY
ISSUE ANOTHER (AND LAST) SPS ON CAUTION FOR BURNING. AFTWRDS...
MEASURABLE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER SUNDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY EVE.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...NORCROSS/DUDA
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM...CB
AVIATION...NORCROSS/CB
MARINE...NORCROSS/CB
FIRE WEATHER...VJN




000
FXUS61 KGYX 010424
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1224 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY AND WILL SLOWLY CROSS NEW ENGLAND
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL PUSH EAST INTO THE
MARITIMES MONDAY NIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE
AREA ON TUESDAY. ANOTHER BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH
FROM THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY AND WILL MEANDER OVER THE NORTHEAST
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
1215 AM...JUST A QUICK UPDATE TO FINE POPS THRU SUNRISE A BIT AND
ADJUST OVERNIGHT TEMPS AS WELL. GFS REMAINS MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH
BRING RAIN INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WHILE MOST MESOSCALE MODELS ARE
SLOWER WITH LOWER QPF. HAVE LOWERED A BITS THRU 12-15Z. HARD TO
SEEANYTHING MORE THAN FEW SPKLS IN THE CT VLY...MONADNOCK...LAKE
SUNAPEE REGION AND THE WHITES THRU 12-14Z.

926 PM UPDATE... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS MORE UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE SPILLING INTO THE NORTHEAST THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURE AND
DEW POINTS STILL RANGING QUITE A BIT FROM SOUTHERN NH TO
NORTHWESTERN MAINE. UPDATED TO ADJUST THERMAL PROFILES. THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK.


720 PM UPDATE...
DEW POINTS ARE SLOWLY BUT SURELY INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING IN ADVANCE OF A WARM FRONT TO OUR SW. STILL A FEW SPOTS IN
THE 60S THIS PAST HOUR SO ADJUSTED THE DIURNAL AND NOCTURNAL
TEMPERATURE CURVES AS WELL AS THE OVERNIGHT MINIMUMS. WINDS ARE
LIGHT. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING OVERNIGHT WITH
PRECIPITATION NOT REALLY STARTING IN WESTERN NH UNTIL PERHAPS
DAYBREAK.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT AS AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. LOOKING FOR INCREASING
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN
THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S IN THE NORTH AND MID 30S TO NEAR 40 IN
THE SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS TO GRADUALLY OVERSPREAD THE REGION ON
SUNDAY WITH MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY OCCURRING IN THE AFTERNOON. QPF
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT AND SPOTTY WITH GENERALLY A QUARTER INCH OR
LESS THROUGH THE DAY WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS IN WESTERN ZONES. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE THROUGH THE 50S WITH COOLEST READINGS
ALONG THE COAST.

OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PUSH IN FROM THE WEST. MOIST ONSHORE FLOW WILL
RESULT IN LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG. LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM
THE MID 30S NORTH TO NEAR 40 SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UNSETTLED IS THE WORD FOR THE LONG TERM. STILL A LOT OF QUESTION
ALSO WITH WHAT COULD BE A SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM FOR LATER IN THE
WEEK. FIRST THINGS FIRST. A SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY
WITH SOME WELL NEEDED RAIN. MODELS SEEM TO BE WEAKENING THIS SHORT
WAVE WITH EACH RUN WITH THE GFS STRONGER THAN THE ECMWF. A THIRD
TO 0.75 OF AN INCH OF PRECIPITATION LIKELY WITH THIS SYSTEM. IT
WILL BE A COOL AND RAW DAY MONDAY.

ANOTHER WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY WITH THE MODELS SUGGESTING THE PRECIPITATION WILL
STAY SOUTH OF THE AREA.

ON THURSDAY A DIGGING TROUGH WILL DEVELOP SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC. THIS WILL BE A SLOW MOVING CUTOFF SYSTEM
THAT WILL LIKELY PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN AND KEEP THE NORTHEAST IN
RAIN/SHOWERS THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEKEND. THE GFS HAS COME INTO
BETTER ALIGNMENT WITH THE ECMWF WITH THIS SYSTEM. ALSO TIDES WILL
BE QUITE HIGH FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH AN 11.9 FOOT TIDE
EXPECTED IN PORTLAND ON FRIDAY AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY. WINDS WILL
LIKELY BE ONSHORE AT THAT TIME WITH BUILDING SEAS.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. IFR/LIFR CEILINGS AND VSBY
SUNDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...IFR EXPECT MONDAY...BECOMING VFR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR/IFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...NO FLAGS.

LONG TERM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BUILD LATER IN THE WEEK AND SCA MAY
BE NEEDED AGAIN.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RH WILL BE ON THE INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND WETTING RAINS WILL MOVE
IN ON SUNDAY... CONTINUING INTO MONDAY. NO PROBLEMS ANTICIPATED.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CEMPA




000
FXUS61 KCAR 010153
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
953 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST SUNDAY. LOW
PRESSURE IN THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY EVENING WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
GULF OF MAINE MONDAY AND WILL PULL AWAY INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES MONDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH
FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
930 PM UPDATE: THE MOST SIG CHG WAS TO ADD PATCHY FOG ACROSS PTNS
OF DOWNEAST ME FOR THE HRS IMMEDIATELY ARND DAYBREAK. THIS WAS
DONE IN PART BASED ON WHAT HAPPENED EARLY THIS PAST MORN IN THE
BGR VCNTY WHEN PATCHY FOG BROKE OUT FOR ABOUT A 2HR PD BETWEEN
5-7AM. FCST LOWS FOR ERLY SUN MORN ARE NOT QUITE AS COLD AS YSTDY...
IN THE MID 30S AND WITH EVE DWPT TEMPS IN THE MID 30S THX TO THE
SEA BREEZE...THE FEELING IS THAT IT IS UNLIKELY THAT LOW TEMPS
WILL DROP MUCH BELOW THIS CROSS OVER POINT TO RESULT IN MUCH MORE
THAN LGT PATCHY FOG ATTM...BUT WORTH A MENTION GIVEN THAT IT
OCCURRED ERLY THIS PRIOR MORN.

OTHERWISE...FCST HRLY TEMPS THIS OVRNGT WERE UPDATED TO UNCHGD
FCST LOW TEMPS BASED ON OBSVD TEMP TRENDS AT 8 AND 9PM.

ORGNL DISC: ANOTHER DRY NIGHT IS IN STORE FOR NORTHERN AND
DOWNEAST MAINE AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST. EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES THIS EVENING TO GIVE WAY TO INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS LATER
TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
20S TO NEAR 30 DEGREES NORTH AND LOW TO MID 30S DOWNEAST.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST SUNDAY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS
IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE FROM THE WEST. THE AIR
MASS WILL STILL BE RATHER DRY INITIALLY THUS WE ARE NOT EXPECTING
ANY PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL
BE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 DEGREES, EXCEPT ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 50S
ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AFTER ONE OF THE LONGEST STRETCHES OF DRY WEATHER ON RECORD AT
CARIBOU SOME MUCH NEEDED RAIN IS ON THE WAY. LOW PRESSURE ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY SUN EVENING IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE GULF OF
MAINE MON AFTERNOON AND EXIT INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES LATE MON
NIGHT AND TUE. THIS WILL BRING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO THE
REGION, ESPECIALLY MON AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY EVENING. WELL AHEAD
OF LOW SOME LIGHTER PRECIPITATION MAY FALL SUN NIGHT INTO MON
MORNING, MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN. A LITTLE WET SNOW IS POSSIBLE
SUN NIGHT ACROSS FAR NORTHERN AREAS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN, BUT ACCUMULATIONS ARE NOT LIKELY. THE RAIN WILL TAPER
BACK TO SHOWERS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH MON NIGHT WITH DRIER WEATHER
TUE, ALTHOUGH A PASSING SHOWER WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS. THE MAIN UPDATE THIS TERM WAS TO
INCREASE THE POPS TO CATEGORICAL AS MOST AREAS WILL LIKELY PICK UP
A GOOD HALF INCH TO TO INCH OF RAINFALL, AND POSSIBLY A BIT MORE
FOR SOME OF THE UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS. AMOUNTS
MAY ONLY BE IN THE QUARTER TO HALF INCH RANGE ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST
MAINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE AN UNSETTLED ONE DURING MUCH OF THE
LONG TERM. ANOTHER INCOMING LOW FROM THE WEST WILL LIKELY SPREAD
SOME MORE SHOWERS OR RAIN ACROSS THE AREA LATE TUE NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW, AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO
NEW ENGLAND LATE IN THE WEEK INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEKEND. THIS
WILL KEEP THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST, ALTHOUGH SPECIFIC
SHORTWAVE DETAILS REMAIN UNCERTAIN. IT DOES LOOK LIKE THE MAJORITY
OF THE TIME WILL BE RAIN-FREE. TEMPERATURES MID TO LATE WEEK ARE
EXPECTED TO BE NEAR AVERAGE FOR EARLY MAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR THROUGH SUNDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS.

SHORT TERM: CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO MVFR AND AT TIMES IFR IN RAIN
AND PATCHY FOG MON INTO MON EVENING, WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT LIKELY
LATE MON NIGHT OR TUE TO MVFR TO VFR. CONDITIONS MID TO LATE WEEK
WILL BE MOSTLY BE VFR WITH TIMES OF MVFR IN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WIND/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS THROUGH
SUNDAY.

SHORT TERM: A PERIOD OF SCA LEVEL WIND AND SEAS EXPECTED MON AFTERNOON
INTO MON NIGHT AS LOW PRES APPROACHES AND THEN MOVES ACROSS THE
WATERS. CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BE BELOW SCA LEVELS MID-LATE WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY...
MSLY FOR NRN AND E CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA...WHERE WE WILL LIKELY
ISSUE ANOTHER (AND LAST) SPS ON CAUTION FOR BURNING. AFTWRDS...
MEASURABLE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER SUNDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY EVE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
TODAY IS THE 18TH CONSECUTIVE DAY WITHOUT MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION
AT CARIBOU. THE ALL-TIME RECORD OF 20 DAYS WAS SET ON MARCH 1-20,
2010.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM...CB
AVIATION...VJN/CB
MARINE...VJN/CB
FIRE WEATHER...VJN
CLIMATE...CB




000
FXUS61 KGYX 010126 AAB
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
926 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY AND WILL SLOWLY CROSS NEW ENGLAND
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL PUSH EAST INTO THE
MARITIMES MONDAY NIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE
AREA ON TUESDAY. ANOTHER BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH
FROM THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY AND WILL MEANDER OVER THE NORTHEAST
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
926 PM UPDATE... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS MORE UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE SPILLING INTO THE NORTHEAST THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURE AND
DEW POINTS STILL RANGING QUITE A BIT FROM SOUTHERN NH TO
NORTHWESTERN MAINE. UPDATED TO ADJUST THERMAL PROFILES. THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK.


720 PM UPDATE...
DEW POINTS ARE SLOWLY BUT SURELY INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING IN ADVANCE OF A WARM FRONT TO OUR SW. STILL A FEW SPOTS IN
THE 60S THIS PAST HOUR SO ADJUSTED THE DIURNAL AND NOCTURNAL
TEMPERATURE CURVES AS WELL AS THE OVERNIGHT MINIMUMS. WINDS ARE
LIGHT. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING OVERNIGHT WITH
PRECIPITATION NOT REALLY STARTING IN WESTERN NH UNTIL PERHAPS
DAYBREAK.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT AS AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. LOOKING FOR INCREASING
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN
THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S IN THE NORTH AND MID 30S TO NEAR 40 IN
THE SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS TO GRADUALLY OVERSPREAD THE REGION ON
SUNDAY WITH MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY OCCURRING IN THE AFTERNOON. QPF
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT AND SPOTTY WITH GENERALLY A QUARTER INCH OR
LESS THROUGH THE DAY WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS IN WESTERN ZONES. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE THROUGH THE 50S WITH COOLEST READINGS
ALONG THE COAST.

OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PUSH IN FROM THE WEST. MOIST ONSHORE FLOW WILL
RESULT IN LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG. LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM
THE MID 30S NORTH TO NEAR 40 SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UNSETTLED IS THE WORD FOR THE LONG TERM. STILL A LOT OF QUESTION
ALSO WITH WHAT COULD BE A SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM FOR LATER IN THE
WEEK. FIRST THINGS FIRST. A SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY
WITH SOME WELL NEEDED RAIN. MODELS SEEM TO BE WEAKENING THIS SHORT
WAVE WITH EACH RUN WITH THE GFS STRONGER THAN THE ECMWF. A THIRD
TO 0.75 OF AN INCH OF PRECIPITATION LIKELY WITH THIS SYSTEM. IT
WILL BE A COOL AND RAW DAY MONDAY.

ANOTHER WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY WITH THE MODELS SUGGESTING THE PRECIPITATION WILL
STAY SOUTH OF THE AREA.

ON THURSDAY A DIGGING TROUGH WILL DEVELOP SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC. THIS WILL BE A SLOW MOVING CUTOFF SYSTEM
THAT WILL LIKELY PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN AND KEEP THE NORTHEAST IN
RAIN/SHOWERS THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEKEND. THE GFS HAS COME INTO
BETTER ALIGNMENT WITH THE ECMWF WITH THIS SYSTEM. ALSO TIDES WILL
BE QUITE HIGH FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH AN 11.9 FOOT TIDE
EXPECTED IN PORTLAND ON FRIDAY AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY. WINDS WILL
LIKELY BE ONSHORE AT THAT TIME WITH BUILDING SEAS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. IFR/LIFR CEILINGS AND VSBY
SUNDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...IFR EXPECT MONDAY...BECOMING VFR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR/IFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...NO FLAGS.

LONG TERM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BUILD LATER IN THE WEEK AND SCA MAY
BE NEEDED AGAIN.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RH WILL BE ON THE INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND WETTING RAINS WILL MOVE
IN ON SUNDAY... CONTINUING INTO MONDAY. NO PROBLEMS ANTICIPATED.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...HANES
SHORT TERM...SINSABAUGH
LONG TERM...HAWLEY
AVIATION...
MARINE...
FIRE WEATHER...




000
FXUS61 KGYX 302321 AAA
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
721 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY AND WILL SLOWLY CROSS NEW ENGLAND
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL PUSH EAST INTO THE
MARITIMES MONDAY NIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE
AREA ON TUESDAY. ANOTHER BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH
FROM THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY AND WILL MEANDER OVER THE NORTHEAST
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
720 PM UPDATE...
DEW POINTS ARE SLOWLY BUT SURELY INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING IN ADVANCE OF A WARM FRONT TO OUR SW. STILL A FEW SPOTS IN
THE 60S THIS PAST HOUR SO ADJUSTED THE DIURNAL AND NOCTURNAL
TEMPERATURE CURVES AS WELL AS THE OVERNIGHT MINIMUMS. WINDS ARE
LIGHT. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING OVERNIGHT WITH
PRECIPITATION NOT REALLY STARTING IN WESTERN NH UNTIL PERHAPS
DAYBREAK.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT AS AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. LOOKING FOR INCREASING
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN
THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S IN THE NORTH AND MID 30S TO NEAR 40 IN
THE SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS TO GRADUALLY OVERSPREAD THE REGION ON
SUNDAY WITH MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY OCCURRING IN THE AFTERNOON. QPF
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT AND SPOTTY WITH GENERALLY A QUARTER INCH OR
LESS THROUGH THE DAY WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS IN WESTERN ZONES. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE THROUGH THE 50S WITH COOLEST READINGS
ALONG THE COAST.

OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PUSH IN FROM THE WEST. MOIST ONSHORE FLOW WILL
RESULT IN LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG. LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM
THE MID 30S NORTH TO NEAR 40 SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UNSETTLED IS THE WORD FOR THE LONG TERM. STILL A LOT OF QUESTION
ALSO WITH WHAT COULD BE A SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM FOR LATER IN THE
WEEK. FIRST THINGS FIRST. A SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY
WITH SOME WELL NEEDED RAIN. MODELS SEEM TO BE WEAKENING THIS SHORT
WAVE WITH EACH RUN WITH THE GFS STRONGER THAN THE ECMWF. A THIRD
TO 0.75 OF AN INCH OF PRECIPITATION LIKELY WITH THIS SYSTEM. IT
WILL BE A COOL AND RAW DAY MONDAY.

ANOTHER WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY WITH THE MODELS SUGGESTING THE PRECIPITATION WILL
STAY SOUTH OF THE AREA.

ON THURSDAY A DIGGING TROUGH WILL DEVELOP SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC. THIS WILL BE A SLOW MOVING CUTOFF SYSTEM
THAT WILL LIKELY PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN AND KEEP THE NORTHEAST IN
RAIN/SHOWERS THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEKEND. THE GFS HAS COME INTO
BETTER ALIGNMENT WITH THE ECMWF WITH THIS SYSTEM. ALSO TIDES WILL
BE QUITE HIGH FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH AN 11.9 FOOT TIDE
EXPECTED IN PORTLAND ON FRIDAY AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY. WINDS WILL
LIKELY BE ONSHORE AT THAT TIME WITH BUILDING SEAS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. IFR/LIFR CEILINGS AND VSBY
SUNDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...IFR EXPECT MONDAY...BECOMING VFR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR/IFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...NO FLAGS.

LONG TERM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BUILD LATER IN THE WEEK AND SCA MAY
BE NEEDED AGAIN.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RH WILL BE ON THE INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND WETTING RAINS WILL MOVE
IN ON SUNDAY... CONTINUING INTO MONDAY. NO PROBLEMS ANTICIPATED.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HANES
SHORT TERM...SINSABAUGH
LONG TERM...HAWLEY




000
FXUS61 KCAR 302234
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
634 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST SUNDAY. LOW
PRESSURE IN THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY EVENING WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
GULF OF MAINE MONDAY AND WILL PULL AWAY INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES MONDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH
FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
600 PM UPDATE: CHGS THIS UPDATE INCLUDED DELAYING ANY INCREASE OF
HI/MID CLDNSS FOR LATE TNGT TO MSLY SUN MORN OVR THE S AND W AND
SUN AFTN FOR THE N AND E BASED ON TRENDS SEEN WITH SAT IMAGERY.
ANOTHER CHG WAS TO LOWER FCST SFC DWPTS BASED ON CONTD HIGH MODEL
BIASES SEEN OVR THE LAST FEW DAYS. WE SPCLY LOWERED DWPTS OVR THE
N AND E SUN INTO MID AFTN (AND IMPLIED MIN RHS) BASED ON MIXING
DOWN DWPTS SEEN IN THE CANGEM AT 1KM AGL DUG THIS TM. ELSEWHERE...
S AND SE WINDS FROM THE GULF OF ME AND GREATER CLD CVR WILL KEEP
SUN AFTN DWPTS AND MIN RHS HIGHER. LASTLY...WITH MORE IN THE WY
OF CLR SKIES XPCTD OVRNGT...WE LOWERED OVRNGT LOWS 2 TO 3 DEG F
MSLY OVR THE BROAD VLY AREAS INLAND FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST
WHERE WE INDICATE NEAR CALM WINDS BY LATE TNGT.

ORGNL DISC: ANOTHER DRY NIGHT IS IN STORE FOR NORTHERN AND
DOWNEAST MAINE AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST. EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES THIS EVENING TO GIVE WAY TO INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS LATER
TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
20S TO NEAR 30 DEGREES NORTH AND LOW TO MID 30S DOWNEAST.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST SUNDAY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS
IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE FROM THE WEST. THE AIR
MASS WILL STILL BE RATHER DRY INITIALLY THUS WE ARE NOT EXPECTING
ANY PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL
BE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 DEGREES, EXCEPT ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 50S
ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AFTER ONE OF THE LONGEST STRETCHES OF DRY WEATHER ON RECORD AT
CARIBOU SOME MUCH NEEDED RAIN IS ON THE WAY. LOW PRESSURE ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY SUN EVENING IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE GULF OF
MAINE MON AFTERNOON AND EXIT INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES LATE MON
NIGHT AND TUE. THIS WILL BRING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO THE
REGION, ESPECIALLY MON AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY EVENING. WELL AHEAD
OF LOW SOME LIGHTER PRECIPITATION MAY FALL SUN NIGHT INTO MON
MORNING, MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN. A LITTLE WET SNOW IS POSSIBLE
SUN NIGHT ACROSS FAR NORTHERN AREAS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN, BUT ACCUMULATIONS ARE NOT LIKELY. THE RAIN WILL TAPER
BACK TO SHOWERS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH MON NIGHT WITH DRIER WEATHER
TUE, ALTHOUGH A PASSING SHOWER WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS. THE MAIN UPDATE THIS TERM WAS TO
INCREASE THE POPS TO CATEGORICAL AS MOST AREAS WILL LIKELY PICK UP
A GOOD HALF INCH TO TO INCH OF RAINFALL, AND POSSIBLY A BIT MORE
FOR SOME OF THE UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS. AMOUNTS
MAY ONLY BE IN THE QUARTER TO HALF INCH RANGE ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST
MAINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE AN UNSETTLED ONE DURING MUCH OF THE
LONG TERM. ANOTHER INCOMING LOW FROM THE WEST WILL LIKELY SPREAD
SOME MORE SHOWERS OR RAIN ACROSS THE AREA LATE TUE NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW, AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO
NEW ENGLAND LATE IN THE WEEK INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEKEND. THIS
WILL KEEP THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST, ALTHOUGH SPECIFIC
SHORTWAVE DETAILS REMAIN UNCERTAIN. IT DOES LOOK LIKE THE MAJORITY
OF THE TIME WILL BE RAIN-FREE. TEMPERATURES MID TO LATE WEEK ARE
EXPECTED TO BE NEAR AVERAGE FOR EARLY MAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR THROUGH SUNDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS.

SHORT TERM: CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO MVFR AND AT TIMES IFR IN RAIN
AND PATCHY FOG MON INTO MON EVENING, WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT LIKELY
LATE MON NIGHT OR TUE TO MVFR TO VFR. CONDITIONS MID TO LATE WEEK
WILL BE MOSTLY BE VFR WITH TIMES OF MVFR IN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WIND/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS THROUGH
SUNDAY.

SHORT TERM: A PERIOD OF SCA LEVEL WIND AND SEAS EXPECTED MON AFTERNOON
INTO MON NIGHT AS LOW PRES APPROACHES AND THEN MOVES ACROSS THE
WATERS. CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BE BELOW SCA LEVELS MID-LATE WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY...
MSLY FOR NRN AND E CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA...WHERE WE WILL LIKELY
ISSUE ANOTHER (AND LAST) SPS ON CAUTION FOR BURNING. AFTWRDS...
MEASURABLE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER SUNDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY EVE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
TODAY IS THE 18TH CONSECUTIVE DAY WITHOUT MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION
AT CARIBOU. THE ALL-TIME RECORD OF 20 DAYS WAS SET ON MARCH 1-20,
2010.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM...CB
AVIATION...VJN/CB
MARINE...VJN/CB
FIRE WEATHER...VJN
CLIMATE...CB




000
FXUS61 KGYX 301923
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
323 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY AND WILL SLOWLY CROSS NEW ENGLAND
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL PUSH EAST INTO THE
MARITIMES MONDAY NIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE
AREA ON TUESDAY. ANOTHER BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH
FROM THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY AND WILL MEANDER OVER THE NORTHEAST
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT AS AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWWEST. LOOKING FOR INCREASING
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN
THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S IN THE NORTH AND MID 30S TO NEAR 40 IN
THE SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS TO GRADUALLY OVERSPREAD THE REGION ON
SUNDAY WITH MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY OCCURRING IN THE AFTERNOON. QPF
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT AND SPOTTY WITH GENERALLY A QUARTER INCH OR
LESS THROUGH THE DAY WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS IN WESTERN ZONES. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE THROUGH THE 50S WITH COOLEST READINGS
ALONG THE COAST.

OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PUSH IN FROM THE WEST. MOIST ONSHORE FLOW WILL
RESULT IN LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG. LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM
THE MID 30S NORTH TO NEAR 40 SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UNSETTLED IS THE WORD FOR THE LONG TERM. STILL A LOT OF QUESTION
ALSO WITH WHAT COULD BE A SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM FOR LATER IN THE
WEEK. FIRST THINGS FIRST. A SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY
WITH SOME WELL NEEDED RAIN. MODELS SEEM TO BE WEAKENING THIS SHORT
WAVE WITH EACH RUN WITH THE GFS STRONGER THAN THE ECMWF. A THIRD
TO 0.75 OF AN INCH OF PRECIPITATION LIKELY WITH THIS SYSTEM. IT
WILL BE A COOL AND RAW DAY MONDAY.

ANOTHER WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY WITH THE MODELS SUGGESTING THE PRECIPITATION WILL
STAY SOUTH OF THE AREA.

ON THURSDAY A DIGGING TROUGH WILL DEVELOP SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC. THIS WILL BE A SLOW MOVING CUTOFF SYTEM
THAT WILL LIKELY PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN AND KEEP THE NORTHEAST IN
RAIN/SHOWERS THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEKEND. THE GFS HAS COME INTO
BETTER ALIGNMENT WITH THE ECMWF WITH THIS SYSTEM. ALSO TIDES WILL
BE QUITE HIGH FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH AN 11.9 FOOT TIDE
EXPECTED IN PORTLAND ON FRIDAY AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY. WINDS WILL
LIKELY BE ONSHORE AT THAT TIME WITH BUILDING SEAS.



&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. IFR/LIFR CEILINGS AND VSBY
SUNDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...IFR EXPECT MONDAY...BECOMING VFR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR/IFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...NO FLAGS.

LONG TERM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BUILD LATER IN THE WEEK AND SCA MAY
BE NEEDED AGAIN.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...RH WILL BE ON THE INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND WETTING
RAINS WILL MOVE IN ON SUNDAY...CONTINUING INTO MONDQAY. NO
PROBLEMS ANTICIPATED.


&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
LONG TERM...TFH




000
FXUS61 KCAR 301847
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
247 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST SUNDAY. LOW
PRESSURE IN THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY EVENING WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
GULF OF MAINE MONDAY AND WILL PULL AWAY INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES MONDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH
FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY.


&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ANOTHER DRY NIGHT IS IN STORE FOR NORTHERN AND DOWNEAST MAINE AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES EAST. EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING TO GIVE
WAY TO INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS LATER TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO NEAR 30 DEGREES NORTH AND
LOW TO MID 30S DOWNEAST.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST SUNDAY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS
IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE FROM THE WEST. THE AIR
MASS WILL STILL BE RATHER DRY INITIALLY THUS WE ARE NOT EXPECTING
ANY PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL
BE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 DEGREES, EXCEPT ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 50S
ALONG THE COAST.


&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AFTER ONE OF THE LONGEST STRETCHES OF DRY WEATHER ON RECORD AT
CARIBOU SOME MUCH NEEDED RAIN IS ON THE WAY. LOW PRESSURE ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY SUN EVENING IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE GULF OF
MAINE MON AFTERNOON AND EXIT INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES LATE MON
NIGHT AND TUE. THIS WILL BRING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO THE
REGION, ESPECIALLY MON AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY EVENING. WELL AHEAD
OF LOW SOME LIGHTER PRECIPITATION MAY FALL SUN NIGHT INTO MON
MORNING, MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN. A LITTLE WET SNOW IS POSSIBLE
SUN NIGHT ACROSS FAR NORTHERN AREAS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN, BUT ACCUMULATIONS ARE NOT LIKELY. THE RAIN WILL TAPER
BACK TO SHOWERS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH MON NIGHT WITH DRIER WEATHER
TUE, ALTHOUGH A PASSING SHOWER WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS. THE MAIN UPDATE THIS TERM WAS TO
INCREASE THE POPS TO CATEGORICAL AS MOST AREAS WILL LIKELY PICK UP
A GOOD HALF INCH TO TO INCH OF RAINFALL, AND POSSIBLY A BIT MORE
FOR SOME OF THE UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS. AMOUNTS
MAY ONLY BE IN THE QUARTER TO HALF INCH RANGE ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST
MAINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE AN UNSETTLED ONE DURING MUCH OF THE
LONG TERM. ANOTHER INCOMING LOW FROM THE WEST WILL LIKELY SPREAD
SOME MORE SHOWERS OR RAIN ACROSS THE AREA LATE TUE NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW, AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO
NEW ENGLAND LATE IN THE WEEK INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEKEND. THIS
WILL KEEP THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST, ALTHOUGH SPECIFIC
SHORTWAVE DETAILS REMAIN UNCERTAIN. IT DOES LOOK LIKE THE MAJORITY
OF THE TIME WILL BE RAIN-FREE. TEMPERATURES MID TO LATE WEEK ARE
EXPECTED TO BE NEAR AVERAGE FOR EARLY MAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR THROUGH SUNDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS.

SHORT TERM: CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO MVFR AND AT TIMES IFR IN RAIN
AND PATCHY FOG MON INTO MON EVENING, WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT LIKELY
LATE MON NIGHT OR TUE TO MVFR TO VFR. CONDITIONS MID TO LATE WEEK
WILL BE MOSTLY BE VFR WITH TIMES OF MVFR IN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WIND/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS THROUGH
SUNDAY.

SHORT TERM: A PERIOD OF SCA LEVEL WIND AND SEAS EXPECTED MON AFTERNOON
INTO MON NIGHT AS LOW PRES APPROACHES AND THEN MOVES ACROSS THE
WATERS. CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BE BELOW SCA LEVELS MID-LATE WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY.
MEASURABLE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SUNDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE
THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...TODAY IS THE 18TH CONSECUTIVE DAY WITHOUT MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION AT CARIBOU.  THE ALL-TIME RECORD OF 20 DAYS WAS SET ON
MARCH 1-20, 2010.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DUDA
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM...CB
AVIATION...DUDA/CB
MARINE...DUDA/CB
FIRE WEATHER...DUDA
CLIMATE...CB




000
FXUS61 KCAR 301847
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
247 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST SUNDAY. LOW
PRESSURE IN THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY EVENING WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
GULF OF MAINE MONDAY AND WILL PULL AWAY INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES MONDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH
FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY.


&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ANOTHER DRY NIGHT IS IN STORE FOR NORTHERN AND DOWNEAST MAINE AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES EAST. EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING TO GIVE
WAY TO INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS LATER TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO NEAR 30 DEGREES NORTH AND
LOW TO MID 30S DOWNEAST.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST SUNDAY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS
IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE FROM THE WEST. THE AIR
MASS WILL STILL BE RATHER DRY INITIALLY THUS WE ARE NOT EXPECTING
ANY PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL
BE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 DEGREES, EXCEPT ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 50S
ALONG THE COAST.


&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AFTER ONE OF THE LONGEST STRETCHES OF DRY WEATHER ON RECORD AT
CARIBOU SOME MUCH NEEDED RAIN IS ON THE WAY. LOW PRESSURE ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY SUN EVENING IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE GULF OF
MAINE MON AFTERNOON AND EXIT INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES LATE MON
NIGHT AND TUE. THIS WILL BRING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO THE
REGION, ESPECIALLY MON AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY EVENING. WELL AHEAD
OF LOW SOME LIGHTER PRECIPITATION MAY FALL SUN NIGHT INTO MON
MORNING, MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN. A LITTLE WET SNOW IS POSSIBLE
SUN NIGHT ACROSS FAR NORTHERN AREAS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN, BUT ACCUMULATIONS ARE NOT LIKELY. THE RAIN WILL TAPER
BACK TO SHOWERS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH MON NIGHT WITH DRIER WEATHER
TUE, ALTHOUGH A PASSING SHOWER WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS. THE MAIN UPDATE THIS TERM WAS TO
INCREASE THE POPS TO CATEGORICAL AS MOST AREAS WILL LIKELY PICK UP
A GOOD HALF INCH TO TO INCH OF RAINFALL, AND POSSIBLY A BIT MORE
FOR SOME OF THE UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS. AMOUNTS
MAY ONLY BE IN THE QUARTER TO HALF INCH RANGE ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST
MAINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE AN UNSETTLED ONE DURING MUCH OF THE
LONG TERM. ANOTHER INCOMING LOW FROM THE WEST WILL LIKELY SPREAD
SOME MORE SHOWERS OR RAIN ACROSS THE AREA LATE TUE NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW, AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO
NEW ENGLAND LATE IN THE WEEK INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEKEND. THIS
WILL KEEP THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST, ALTHOUGH SPECIFIC
SHORTWAVE DETAILS REMAIN UNCERTAIN. IT DOES LOOK LIKE THE MAJORITY
OF THE TIME WILL BE RAIN-FREE. TEMPERATURES MID TO LATE WEEK ARE
EXPECTED TO BE NEAR AVERAGE FOR EARLY MAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR THROUGH SUNDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS.

SHORT TERM: CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO MVFR AND AT TIMES IFR IN RAIN
AND PATCHY FOG MON INTO MON EVENING, WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT LIKELY
LATE MON NIGHT OR TUE TO MVFR TO VFR. CONDITIONS MID TO LATE WEEK
WILL BE MOSTLY BE VFR WITH TIMES OF MVFR IN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WIND/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS THROUGH
SUNDAY.

SHORT TERM: A PERIOD OF SCA LEVEL WIND AND SEAS EXPECTED MON AFTERNOON
INTO MON NIGHT AS LOW PRES APPROACHES AND THEN MOVES ACROSS THE
WATERS. CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BE BELOW SCA LEVELS MID-LATE WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY.
MEASURABLE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SUNDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE
THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...TODAY IS THE 18TH CONSECUTIVE DAY WITHOUT MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION AT CARIBOU.  THE ALL-TIME RECORD OF 20 DAYS WAS SET ON
MARCH 1-20, 2010.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DUDA
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM...CB
AVIATION...DUDA/CB
MARINE...DUDA/CB
FIRE WEATHER...DUDA
CLIMATE...CB




000
FXUS61 KCAR 301632
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1232 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...THEN BEGIN TO
MOVE EAST TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE
REGION MONDAY...THEN EXIT ACROSS THE MARITIMES TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. EXPECT A
CONTINUATION OF LIGHT WINDS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. ADJUSTED HRLY
TEMPS/DEW POINTS AND RAISED HIGH TEMPS ABOUT TWO DEGREES OR SO IN
AREAS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...THEN BEGIN TO
MOVE EAST LATER TONIGHT. A TROF WILL EXTEND NORTHEAST TOWARD THE
REGION LATER TONIGHT FROM LOW PRESSURE LOCATED TO THE SOUTHWEST.
GENERALLY EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY
THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. CLOUD COVER WILL THEN BEGIN TO INCREASE
LATER TONIGHT...PARTICULARLY ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM
THE LOWER TO MID 50S NORTH...TO THE MID 50S INTERIOR DOWNEAST.
LOWER TO MID 50S ARE ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS COASTAL DOWNEAST AREAS
WHERE ONSHORE WINDS WILL DEVELOP. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL
GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30 NORTH...TO THE
LOWER TO MID 30S DOWNEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TO THE EAST OF THE AREA
EARLY SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION...MOSTLY IN THE FROM OF RAIN...WILL
SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY MONDAY. AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
RE-DEVELOPS IN THE GULF OF MAINE LATER IN THE DAY MONDAY A SOAKING
RAIN WILL POSSIBLY DEVELOP ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. THE RAIN IS
THEN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO MONDAY EVENING. EXCEPT FOR SOME
SNOW MIXED IN EARLY MONDAY MORNING IN HIGHER TERRAIN...ALL OF THE
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE FROM OF RAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RAIN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY EVENING AS LOW
PRESSURES MOVES ALONG THE COAST THEN TRANSITION TO SHOWERS LATE AT
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. MORE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY AS UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: LOCALLY VARIABLE CONDITIONS...RANGING FROM MVFR TO
LIFR...COULD OCCUR WITH ANY PATCHY FOG DOWNEAST EARLY THIS
MORNING. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY. MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: FOR SUSTAINED WINDS WILL USE THE NAM12 TO POPULATE
WIND GRIDS THEN TRANSITION TO SUPERBLEND WINDS LATE MONDAY. FOR
WAVES: A SOUTHEASTERLY FETCH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
GULF OF MAINE SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE EASTERLY LATER
MONDAY. EXPECT LARGEST WAVES MONDAY NIGHT WITH A COMBINATION OF
SOUTHEASTERLY LONG PERIOD WAVES AND SHORTER PERIOD NORTHEASTERLY
WIND WAVE. SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE LATER MONDAY FOR BOTH WINDS
AND SEAS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST TODAY ALONG WITH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY
LEVELS. THIS WILL KEEP AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER ACROSS THE REGION.
WIND GUSTS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 10 TO 15 MPH. HOWEVER...AN
ONSHORE WIND WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST THIS AFTERNOON
WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 MPH POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DUDA/NORCROSS
SHORT TERM...MIGNONE
LONG TERM...MIGNONE
AVIATION...DUDA/NORCROSS/MIGNONE
MARINE...DUDA/NORCROSS/MIGNONE
FIRE WEATHER...




000
FXUS61 KGYX 301428
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1028 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC AND THE CANADIAN
MARITIME PROVINCES TODAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK THROUGH THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND THEN OFFSHORE TO THE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH A PERIOD OF RAIN EXPECTED. A LARGE TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO NEW ENGLAND ON WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN
NEAR THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND...KEEPING COOL TEMPERATURES AND
WET WEATHER IN THE FORECAST.

&&

14Z UPDATE...
QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE THIS
MORNING. PATCH OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEW HAMPSHIRE
QUICKLY MIXING OUT AND EXPECT THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA TO BE
MOSTLY CLEAR BY EARLY AFTERNOON. LIGHT GRADIENT AND FULL SUN WILL
PRODUCE A RATHER SHARP SEA BREEZE WHICH SHOULD COME ROARING IN
DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON CAPPING TEMPS IN COASTAL AND SOUTHERN
INTERIOR SECTIONS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S. AWAY FROM THE COAST
HIGH TEMPS WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. HAVE ADJUSTED
TEMPS/TD`S/SKY GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT OBS AND NO OTHER CHANGES
PLANNED ATTM.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
710 AM...THE FORECAST ISSUE THIS MORNING IS THE DECK OF OF MID-
LVL CLOUDS IN SW NH. MODELS ARE NOT REALLY HANDLING IT WELL...BUT
NAM12 SEEMS TO BE THE BEST OF THE BUNCH AND SHOWS THE CLOUDS
BRIEFLY SPREAD EWD ALONG THE NH/MA BORDER FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO
AND THE SLOWLY DISSIPATING MID-LATE MORNING...AND WENT WITH THE
NAM12 FOR SKY...AT LEAST IN THAT AREA.

PREVIOUSLY...500 MB WAVE CROSSING NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT IS
PRODUCING MAINLY A DECK OF CIRRUS...BUT HIS SHOULD SHIFT EAST OF
THE CWA AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE MAKING FOR A MOSTLY SUNNY
DAY WITH JUST SOME PATCHY CIRRUS AND A FEW SCT STRATOCU THAT WILL
FORM ALONG SEA BREEZE FRONT AS IT WORKS INLAND. THE LACK OF ANY
PRE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW THE SEA BREEZE TO WORK FAIRLY FAIR INLAND
AND THIS WILL KEEP TEMPS DOWN IN THE LOW TO MID 50S NEAR THE
COAST...BUT REACH UP TO AROUND 60 INLAND AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT WILL SEE THE SFC RIDGE BEGIN TO SHIFT SLOWLY OFFSHORE...A
PROCESS THAT WILL TAKE INTO SUNDAY TO FINISH...AS 500 MB RIDGING
BUILDS JUST TO OUR EAST. LOOK FOR CLOUDS TO INCREASE FROM THE
WEST...BUT ANY RAIN SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL...AT LEAST...AFTER
SUNRISE ON SUNDAY. MINS WILL LKLY OCCUR CLOSER TO MIDNIGHT WITH
TEMPS STEADY OR RISING AFTER THAT...AND WILL BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 30S.

THE BIG QUESTION FOR SUNDAY IS HOW QUICKLY THE RAIN MOVES IN...AND
HOW FAR EAST IT GETS. ANY PRECIP IS DRIVEN BY SOME MID LVL ISENTROPIC
LIFT...MAINLY IN THE 600-800MB RANGE. THE NAM BRINGS A ROUND OF
RAIN INTO NH SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WHILE THE EURO HOLDS IT BACK A
LITTLE LONGER. THERE IS PROBABLY ENOUGH TO LIFT TO GENERATE A FEW
SHOWERS OR SOME VERY LIGHT RAIN IN NH SOMETIME TUE AFTERNOON...BUT
DYNAMIC FORCING IS FORCED BY 500MB WAVE CRASHING INTO RIDGE SO
HOLDING OFF LKLY POPS UNTIL MID-LATE AFTERNOON IN NH AND JUST
KEEPING CHC IN ME. MAX T WILL BE AFFECTED BY CLOUDS AND RAIN...AND
WARMEST TEMPS WILL BE IN THE INLAND KENNEBEC AND PENOBSCOT VALLEY
WHERE HIGHS COULD GET CLOSE TO 60. ELSEWHERE LOOK FOR LOW TO MID
50S AT BEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT TRACKS EAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
AND NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS WILL DRIVE SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES... WITH A NEW AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE FORMING NEAR THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE. THE
NEW LOW BECOMES DOMINANT BY MONDAY NIGHT AS IT CONTINUES EASTWARD
INTO THE ATLANTIC TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA. SHOULD SEE AN INITIAL AREA
OF RAIN SUNDAY EVENING WITH A LEADING SHORTWAVE TROUGH BEFORE
ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN BEGINS MONDAY MORNING LASTING INTO MONDAY
EVENING AS THE OFFSHORE LOW BEGINS TO TAKE OVER. WITH THE COASTAL
LOW FORMING IT WILL PULL IN COLDER AIR ON THE BACK SIDE OF IT JUST
AS PRECIPITATION IS ENDING. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR A BRIEF CHANGE TO
SNOW MAINLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN BUT POSSIBLY EXTENDING INTO THE
VALLEYS OF NORTHWEST MAINE AND NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE MONDAY
EVENING. THE ECMWF IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE HAND OFF BETWEEN
THE FIRST SURFACE LOW AND THE DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW... AND AS A
RESULT THE ECMWF SCENARIO WOULD GIVE THE BEST CHANCE OF A CHANGE
OVER TO SNOW AS PRECIPITATION ENDS.

SHOULD SEE A BREAK ON TUESDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE AREA. TEMPERATURES REMAIN COOL WITH HIGHS REACHING THE UPPER
50S TO LOW 60S.

ON WEDNESDAY A LARGE TROUGH BEGINS TO DIG INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND
CUTS ITSELF OFF OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. CUT OFF LOWS AND
THE ASSOCIATED MINOR WAVES ROTATING AROUND THEM ARE NOTORIOUSLY
DIFFICULT FOR MODELS TO FORECAST... SO THE SPECIFIC DETAILS OF THE
FORECAST FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD ARE VERY MURKY. BUT WITH THE LOW
JUST TO OUR WEST EXPECT OUR AREA TO SEE AT LEAST A FEW ROUNDS OF
WET WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR JUST BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS...VULNERABLE TO AN ONSHORE FLOW. WITH A LONG FETCH OF
SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE
CUT OFF LOW... THIS WOULD PUT US IN A FAVORABLE POSITION FOR
SEEING A HEAVY PRECIPITATION EVENT IF AND WHEN A MORE SUBSTANTIAL
SURFACE LOW CAN FORM AND TRACK NORTHWARD TOWARD THE AREA. THE
LATEST ECMWF DEVELOPS JUST SUCH A SYSTEM ON THURSDAY... THOUGH
GIVEN THE DIFFICULTY IN TIMING THE MINOR WAVES WITHIN A CUT OFF
LOW... THIS SYSTEM COULD AFFECT OUR AREA ANYTIME FROM THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY SO WE CANNOT BE TOO CONFIDENT ON TIMING OF THE
BEST RAIN CHANCES AT THIS POINT IN TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR THRU SUN MORNING. SHOULD SEE CONDS DROP TO MVFR
IN THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NH. COULD SEE SOME LATE IFR
MOVE IN AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS LATE SUNDAY AS WELL.

LONG TERM...SHOULD SEE A GOOD PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS AS EARLY AS
SUNDAY NIGHT BUT FOCUSED MAINLY ON THE MONDAY TIME FRAME.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEPARTS TO THE
EAST.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WIND WILL BE VERY LIGHT OVERALL...BUT WILL TURN
ONSHORE NEAR THE COAST AND INCREASE TO ABOUT 10 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON IN SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS.

LONG TERM...LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING JUST SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND ON
MONDAY WILL TRACK EASTWARD NEAR THE GULF OF MAINE. DEPENDING ON
THE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THE LOW... THIS COULD PROVIDE A PERIOD
OF STRONGER EASTERLY WINDS. THIS EASTERLY FLOW WILL PRODUCE A
FAVORABLE FETCH FOR LARGER WAVES IN THE GULF OF MAINE MONDAY INTO
EARLY TUESDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP RH MODERATE TODAY OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN.
ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAINS A MUCH DRIER AIR MASS WILL
BRING RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DOWN TO 25 TO 30 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL BE VERY LIGHT...BUT FUELS REMAIN DRY SO FIRE DANGER
MAY STAY ELEVATED. MUCH OF THE AREA WILL SEE RAINFALL SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...WITH WETTING RAINS POSSIBLE FOR MANY OF THOSE LOCATIONS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KGYX 301428
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1028 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC AND THE CANADIAN
MARITIME PROVINCES TODAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK THROUGH THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND THEN OFFSHORE TO THE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH A PERIOD OF RAIN EXPECTED. A LARGE TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO NEW ENGLAND ON WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN
NEAR THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND...KEEPING COOL TEMPERATURES AND
WET WEATHER IN THE FORECAST.

&&

14Z UPDATE...
QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE THIS
MORNING. PATCH OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEW HAMPSHIRE
QUICKLY MIXING OUT AND EXPECT THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA TO BE
MOSTLY CLEAR BY EARLY AFTERNOON. LIGHT GRADIENT AND FULL SUN WILL
PRODUCE A RATHER SHARP SEA BREEZE WHICH SHOULD COME ROARING IN
DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON CAPPING TEMPS IN COASTAL AND SOUTHERN
INTERIOR SECTIONS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S. AWAY FROM THE COAST
HIGH TEMPS WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. HAVE ADJUSTED
TEMPS/TD`S/SKY GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT OBS AND NO OTHER CHANGES
PLANNED ATTM.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
710 AM...THE FORECAST ISSUE THIS MORNING IS THE DECK OF OF MID-
LVL CLOUDS IN SW NH. MODELS ARE NOT REALLY HANDLING IT WELL...BUT
NAM12 SEEMS TO BE THE BEST OF THE BUNCH AND SHOWS THE CLOUDS
BRIEFLY SPREAD EWD ALONG THE NH/MA BORDER FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO
AND THE SLOWLY DISSIPATING MID-LATE MORNING...AND WENT WITH THE
NAM12 FOR SKY...AT LEAST IN THAT AREA.

PREVIOUSLY...500 MB WAVE CROSSING NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT IS
PRODUCING MAINLY A DECK OF CIRRUS...BUT HIS SHOULD SHIFT EAST OF
THE CWA AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE MAKING FOR A MOSTLY SUNNY
DAY WITH JUST SOME PATCHY CIRRUS AND A FEW SCT STRATOCU THAT WILL
FORM ALONG SEA BREEZE FRONT AS IT WORKS INLAND. THE LACK OF ANY
PRE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW THE SEA BREEZE TO WORK FAIRLY FAIR INLAND
AND THIS WILL KEEP TEMPS DOWN IN THE LOW TO MID 50S NEAR THE
COAST...BUT REACH UP TO AROUND 60 INLAND AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT WILL SEE THE SFC RIDGE BEGIN TO SHIFT SLOWLY OFFSHORE...A
PROCESS THAT WILL TAKE INTO SUNDAY TO FINISH...AS 500 MB RIDGING
BUILDS JUST TO OUR EAST. LOOK FOR CLOUDS TO INCREASE FROM THE
WEST...BUT ANY RAIN SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL...AT LEAST...AFTER
SUNRISE ON SUNDAY. MINS WILL LKLY OCCUR CLOSER TO MIDNIGHT WITH
TEMPS STEADY OR RISING AFTER THAT...AND WILL BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 30S.

THE BIG QUESTION FOR SUNDAY IS HOW QUICKLY THE RAIN MOVES IN...AND
HOW FAR EAST IT GETS. ANY PRECIP IS DRIVEN BY SOME MID LVL ISENTROPIC
LIFT...MAINLY IN THE 600-800MB RANGE. THE NAM BRINGS A ROUND OF
RAIN INTO NH SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WHILE THE EURO HOLDS IT BACK A
LITTLE LONGER. THERE IS PROBABLY ENOUGH TO LIFT TO GENERATE A FEW
SHOWERS OR SOME VERY LIGHT RAIN IN NH SOMETIME TUE AFTERNOON...BUT
DYNAMIC FORCING IS FORCED BY 500MB WAVE CRASHING INTO RIDGE SO
HOLDING OFF LKLY POPS UNTIL MID-LATE AFTERNOON IN NH AND JUST
KEEPING CHC IN ME. MAX T WILL BE AFFECTED BY CLOUDS AND RAIN...AND
WARMEST TEMPS WILL BE IN THE INLAND KENNEBEC AND PENOBSCOT VALLEY
WHERE HIGHS COULD GET CLOSE TO 60. ELSEWHERE LOOK FOR LOW TO MID
50S AT BEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT TRACKS EAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
AND NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS WILL DRIVE SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES... WITH A NEW AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE FORMING NEAR THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE. THE
NEW LOW BECOMES DOMINANT BY MONDAY NIGHT AS IT CONTINUES EASTWARD
INTO THE ATLANTIC TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA. SHOULD SEE AN INITIAL AREA
OF RAIN SUNDAY EVENING WITH A LEADING SHORTWAVE TROUGH BEFORE
ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN BEGINS MONDAY MORNING LASTING INTO MONDAY
EVENING AS THE OFFSHORE LOW BEGINS TO TAKE OVER. WITH THE COASTAL
LOW FORMING IT WILL PULL IN COLDER AIR ON THE BACK SIDE OF IT JUST
AS PRECIPITATION IS ENDING. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR A BRIEF CHANGE TO
SNOW MAINLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN BUT POSSIBLY EXTENDING INTO THE
VALLEYS OF NORTHWEST MAINE AND NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE MONDAY
EVENING. THE ECMWF IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE HAND OFF BETWEEN
THE FIRST SURFACE LOW AND THE DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW... AND AS A
RESULT THE ECMWF SCENARIO WOULD GIVE THE BEST CHANCE OF A CHANGE
OVER TO SNOW AS PRECIPITATION ENDS.

SHOULD SEE A BREAK ON TUESDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE AREA. TEMPERATURES REMAIN COOL WITH HIGHS REACHING THE UPPER
50S TO LOW 60S.

ON WEDNESDAY A LARGE TROUGH BEGINS TO DIG INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND
CUTS ITSELF OFF OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. CUT OFF LOWS AND
THE ASSOCIATED MINOR WAVES ROTATING AROUND THEM ARE NOTORIOUSLY
DIFFICULT FOR MODELS TO FORECAST... SO THE SPECIFIC DETAILS OF THE
FORECAST FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD ARE VERY MURKY. BUT WITH THE LOW
JUST TO OUR WEST EXPECT OUR AREA TO SEE AT LEAST A FEW ROUNDS OF
WET WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR JUST BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS...VULNERABLE TO AN ONSHORE FLOW. WITH A LONG FETCH OF
SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE
CUT OFF LOW... THIS WOULD PUT US IN A FAVORABLE POSITION FOR
SEEING A HEAVY PRECIPITATION EVENT IF AND WHEN A MORE SUBSTANTIAL
SURFACE LOW CAN FORM AND TRACK NORTHWARD TOWARD THE AREA. THE
LATEST ECMWF DEVELOPS JUST SUCH A SYSTEM ON THURSDAY... THOUGH
GIVEN THE DIFFICULTY IN TIMING THE MINOR WAVES WITHIN A CUT OFF
LOW... THIS SYSTEM COULD AFFECT OUR AREA ANYTIME FROM THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY SO WE CANNOT BE TOO CONFIDENT ON TIMING OF THE
BEST RAIN CHANCES AT THIS POINT IN TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR THRU SUN MORNING. SHOULD SEE CONDS DROP TO MVFR
IN THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NH. COULD SEE SOME LATE IFR
MOVE IN AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS LATE SUNDAY AS WELL.

LONG TERM...SHOULD SEE A GOOD PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS AS EARLY AS
SUNDAY NIGHT BUT FOCUSED MAINLY ON THE MONDAY TIME FRAME.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEPARTS TO THE
EAST.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WIND WILL BE VERY LIGHT OVERALL...BUT WILL TURN
ONSHORE NEAR THE COAST AND INCREASE TO ABOUT 10 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON IN SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS.

LONG TERM...LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING JUST SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND ON
MONDAY WILL TRACK EASTWARD NEAR THE GULF OF MAINE. DEPENDING ON
THE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THE LOW... THIS COULD PROVIDE A PERIOD
OF STRONGER EASTERLY WINDS. THIS EASTERLY FLOW WILL PRODUCE A
FAVORABLE FETCH FOR LARGER WAVES IN THE GULF OF MAINE MONDAY INTO
EARLY TUESDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP RH MODERATE TODAY OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN.
ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAINS A MUCH DRIER AIR MASS WILL
BRING RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DOWN TO 25 TO 30 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL BE VERY LIGHT...BUT FUELS REMAIN DRY SO FIRE DANGER
MAY STAY ELEVATED. MUCH OF THE AREA WILL SEE RAINFALL SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...WITH WETTING RAINS POSSIBLE FOR MANY OF THOSE LOCATIONS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KCAR 301335
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
935 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...THEN BEGIN TO
MOVE EAST TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE
REGION MONDAY...THEN EXIT ACROSS THE MARITIMES TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. EXPECT A
CONTINUATION OF LIGHT WINDS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. ADJUSTED HRLY
TEMPS/DEW POINTS BUT NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO GOING
FORECAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...THEN BEGIN TO
MOVE EAST LATER TONIGHT. A TROF WILL EXTEND NORTHEAST TOWARD THE
REGION LATER TONIGHT FROM LOW PRESSURE LOCATED TO THE SOUTHWEST.
GENERALLY EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY
THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. CLOUD COVER WILL THEN BEGIN TO INCREASE
LATER TONIGHT...PARTICULARLY ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM
THE LOWER TO MID 50S NORTH...TO THE MID 50S INTERIOR DOWNEAST.
LOWER TO MID 50S ARE ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS COASTAL DOWNEAST AREAS
WHERE ONSHORE WINDS WILL DEVELOP. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL
GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30 NORTH...TO THE
LOWER TO MID 30S DOWNEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TO THE EAST OF THE AREA
EARLY SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION...MOSTLY IN THE FROM OF RAIN...WILL
SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY MONDAY. AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
RE-DEVELOPS IN THE GULF OF MAINE LATER IN THE DAY MONDAY A SOAKING
RAIN WILL POSSIBLY DEVELOP ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. THE RAIN IS
THEN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO MONDAY EVENING. EXCEPT FOR SOME
SNOW MIXED IN EARLY MONDAY MORNING IN HIGHER TERRAIN...ALL OF THE
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE FROM OF RAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RAIN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY EVENING AS LOW
PRESSURES MOVES ALONG THE COAST THEN TRANSITION TO SHOWERS LATE AT
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. MORE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY AS UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: LOCALLY VARIABLE CONDITIONS...RANGING FROM MVFR TO
LIFR...COULD OCCUR WITH ANY PATCHY FOG DOWNEAST EARLY THIS
MORNING. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY. MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: FOR SUSTAINED WINDS WILL USE THE NAM12 TO POPULATE
WIND GRIDS THEN TRANSITION TO SUPERBLEND WINDS LATE MONDAY. FOR
WAVES: A SOUTHEASTERLY FETCH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
GULF OF MAINE SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE EASTERLY LATER
MONDAY. EXPECT LARGEST WAVES MONDAY NIGHT WITH A COMBINATION OF
SOUTHEASTERLY LONG PERIOD WAVES AND SHORTER PERIOD NORTHEASTERLY
WIND WAVE. SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE LATER MONDAY FOR BOTH WINDS
AND SEAS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST TODAY ALONG WITH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY
LEVELS. THIS WILL KEEP AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER ACROSS THE REGION.
WIND GUSTS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 10 TO 15 MPH. HOWEVER...AN
ONSHORE WIND WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST THIS AFTERNOON
WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 MPH POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DUDA/NORCROSS
SHORT TERM...MIGNONE
LONG TERM...MIGNONE
AVIATION...DUDA/NORCROSS/MIGNONE
MARINE...DUDA/NORCROSS/MIGNONE
FIRE WEATHER...




000
FXUS61 KGYX 301113
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
713 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC AND THE CANADIAN
MARITIME PROVINCES TODAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK THROUGH THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND THEN OFFSHORE TO THE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH A PERIOD OF RAIN EXPECTED. A LARGE TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO NEW ENGLAND ON WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN
NEAR THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND...KEEPING COOL TEMPERATURES AND
WET WEATHER IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
710 AM...THE FORECAST ISSUE THIS MORNING IS THE DECK OF OF MID-
LVL CLOUDS IN SW NH. MODELS ARE NOT REALLY HANDLING IT WELL...BUT
NAM12 SEEMS TO BE THE BEST OF THE BUNCH AND SHOWS THE CLOUDS
BRIEFLY SPREAD EWD ALONG THE NH/MA BORDER FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO
AND THE SLOWLY DISSIPATING MID-LATE MORNING...AND WENT WITH THE
NAM12 FOR SKY...AT LEAST IN THAT AREA.

PREVIOUSLY...500 MB WAVE CROSSING NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT IS
PRODUCING MAINLY A DECK OF CIRRUS...BUT HIS SHOULD SHIFT EAST OF
THE CWA AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE MAKING FOR A MOSTLY SUNNY
DAY WITH JUST SOME PATCHY CIRRUS AND A FEW SCT STRATOCU THAT WILL
FORM ALONG SEA BREEZE FRONT AS IT WORKS INLAND. THE LACK OF ANY
PRE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW THE SEA BREEZE TO WORK FAIRLY FAIR INLAND
AND THIS WILL KEEP TEMPS DOWN IN THE LOW TO MID 50S NEAR THE
COAST...BUT REACH UP TO AROUND 60 INLAND AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT WILL SEE THE SFC RIDGE BEGIN TO SHIFT SLOWLY OFFSHORE...A
PROCESS THAT WILL TAKE INTO SUNDAY TO FINISH...AS 500 MB RIDGING
BUILDS JUST TO OUR EAST. LOOK FOR CLOUDS TO INCREASE FROM THE
WEST...BUT ANY RAIN SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL...AT LEAST...AFTER
SUNRISE ON SUNDAY. MINS WILL LKLY OCCUR CLOSER TO MIDNIGHT WITH
TEMPS STEADY OR RISING AFTER THAT...AND WILL BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 30S.

THE BIG QUESTION FOR SUNDAY IS HOW QUICKLY THE RAIN MOVES IN...AND
HOW FAR EAST IT GETS. ANY PRECIP IS DRIVEN BY SOME MID LVL ISENTROPIC
LIFT...MAINLY IN THE 600-800MB RANGE. THE NAM BRINGS A ROUND OF
RAIN INTO NH SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WHILE THE EURO HOLDS IT BACK A
LITTLE LONGER. THERE IS PROBABLY ENOUGH TO LIFT TO GENERATE A FEW
SHOWERS OR SOME VERY LIGHT RAIN IN NH SOMETIME TUE AFTERNOON...BUT
DYNAMIC FORCING IS FORCED BY 500MB WAVE CRASHING INTO RIDGE SO
HOLDING OFF LKLY POPS UNTIL MID-LATE AFTERNOON IN NH AND JUST
KEEPING CHC IN ME. MAX T WILL BE AFFECTED BY CLOUDS AND RAIN...AND
WARMEST TEMPS WILL BE IN THE INLAND KENNEBEC AND PENOBSCOT VALLEY
WHERE HIGHS COULD GET CLOSE TO 60. ELSEWHERE LOOK FOR LOW TO MID
50S AT BEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT TRACKS EAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
AND NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS WILL DRIVE SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES... WITH A NEW AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE FORMING NEAR THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE. THE
NEW LOW BECOMES DOMINANT BY MONDAY NIGHT AS IT CONTINUES EASTWARD
INTO THE ATLANTIC TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA. SHOULD SEE AN INITIAL AREA
OF RAIN SUNDAY EVENING WITH A LEADING SHORTWAVE TROUGH BEFORE
ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN BEGINS MONDAY MORNING LASTING INTO MONDAY
EVENING AS THE OFFSHORE LOW BEGINS TO TAKE OVER. WITH THE COASTAL
LOW FORMING IT WILL PULL IN COLDER AIR ON THE BACK SIDE OF IT JUST
AS PRECIPITATION IS ENDING. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR A BRIEF CHANGE TO
SNOW MAINLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN BUT POSSIBLY EXTENDING INTO THE
VALLEYS OF NORTHWEST MAINE AND NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE MONDAY
EVENING. THE ECMWF IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE HAND OFF BETWEEN
THE FIRST SURFACE LOW AND THE DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW... AND AS A
RESULT THE ECMWF SCENARIO WOULD GIVE THE BEST CHANCE OF A CHANGE
OVER TO SNOW AS PRECIPITATION ENDS.

SHOULD SEE A BREAK ON TUESDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE AREA. TEMPERATURES REMAIN COOL WITH HIGHS REACHING THE UPPER
50S TO LOW 60S.

ON WEDNESDAY A LARGE TROUGH BEGINS TO DIG INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND
CUTS ITSELF OFF OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. CUT OFF LOWS AND
THE ASSOCIATED MINOR WAVES ROTATING AROUND THEM ARE NOTORIOUSLY
DIFFICULT FOR MODELS TO FORECAST... SO THE SPECIFIC DETAILS OF THE
FORECAST FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD ARE VERY MURKY. BUT WITH THE LOW
JUST TO OUR WEST EXPECT OUR AREA TO SEE AT LEAST A FEW ROUNDS OF
WET WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR JUST BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS...VULNERABLE TO AN ONSHORE FLOW. WITH A LONG FETCH OF
SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE
CUT OFF LOW... THIS WOULD PUT US IN A FAVORABLE POSITION FOR
SEEING A HEAVY PRECIPITATION EVENT IF AND WHEN A MORE SUBSTANTIAL
SURFACE LOW CAN FORM AND TRACK NORTHWARD TOWARD THE AREA. THE
LATEST ECMWF DEVELOPS JUST SUCH A SYSTEM ON THURSDAY... THOUGH
GIVEN THE DIFFICULTY IN TIMING THE MINOR WAVES WITHIN A CUT OFF
LOW... THIS SYSTEM COULD AFFECT OUR AREA ANYTIME FROM THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY SO WE CANNOT BE TOO CONFIDENT ON TIMING OF THE
BEST RAIN CHANCES AT THIS POINT IN TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR THRU SUN MORNING. SHOULD SEE CONDS DROP TO MVFR
IN THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NH. COULD SEE SOME LATE IFR
MOVE IN AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS LATE SUNDAY AS WELL.

LONG TERM...SHOULD SEE A GOOD PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS AS EARLY AS
SUNDAY NIGHT BUT FOCUSED MAINLY ON THE MONDAY TIME FRAME.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEPARTS TO THE
EAST.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WIND WILL BE VERY LIGHT OVERALL...BUT WILL TURN
ONSHORE NEAR THE COAST AND INCREASE TO ABOUT 10 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON IN SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS.

LONG TERM...LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING JUST SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND ON
MONDAY WILL TRACK EASTWARD NEAR THE GULF OF MAINE. DEPENDING ON
THE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THE LOW... THIS COULD PROVIDE A PERIOD
OF STRONGER EASTERLY WINDS. THIS EASTERLY FLOW WILL PRODUCE A
FAVORABLE FETCH FOR LARGER WAVES IN THE GULF OF MAINE MONDAY INTO
EARLY TUESDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP RH MODERATE TODAY OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN.
ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAINS A MUCH DRIER AIR MASS WILL
BRING RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DOWN TO 25 TO 30 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL BE VERY LIGHT...BUT FUELS REMAIN DRY SO FIRE DANGER
MAY STAY ELEVATED. MUCH OF THE AREA WILL SEE RAINFALL SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...WITH WETTING RAINS POSSIBLE FOR MANY OF THOSE LOCATIONS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
FIRE WEATHER...




000
FXUS61 KCAR 301012
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
612 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...THEN BEGIN TO
MOVE EAST TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE
REGION MONDAY...THEN EXIT ACROSS THE MARITIMES TUESDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INCLUDE PATCHY FOG DOWNEAST EARLY
THIS MORNING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...THEN BEGIN TO
MOVE EAST LATER TONIGHT. A TROF WILL EXTEND NORTHEAST TOWARD THE
REGION LATER TONIGHT FROM LOW PRESSURE LOCATED TO THE SOUTHWEST.
GENERALLY EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY
THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. CLOUD COVER WILL THEN BEGIN TO INCREASE
LATER TONIGHT...PARTICULARLY ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM
THE LOWER TO MID 50S NORTH...TO THE MID 50S INTERIOR DOWNEAST.
LOWER TO MID 50S ARE ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS COASTAL DOWNEAST AREAS
WHERE ONSHORE WINDS WILL DEVELOP. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL
GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30 NORTH...TO THE
LOWER TO MID 30S DOWNEAST.
&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TO THE EAST OF THE AREA
EARLY SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION...MOSTLY IN THE FROM OF RAIN...WILL
SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY MONDAY. AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
RE-DEVELOPS IN THE GULF OF MAINE LATER IN THE DAY MONDAY A SOAKING
RAIN WILL POSSIBLY DEVELOP ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. THE RAIN IS
THEN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO MONDAY EVENING. EXCEPT FOR SOME
SNOW MIXED IN EARLY MONDAY MORNING IN HIGHER TERRAIN...ALL OF THE
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE FROM OF RAIN.
&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RAIN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY EVENING AS LOW
PRESSURES MOVES ALONG THE COAST THEN TRANSITION TO SHOWERS LATE AT
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. MORE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY AS UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
&&

.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: LOCALLY VARIABLE CONDITIONS...RANGING FROM MVFR TO
LIFR...COULD OCCUR WITH ANY PATCHY FOG DOWNEAST EARLY THIS
MORNING. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY. MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: FOR SUSTAINED WINDS WILL USE THE NAM12 TO POPULATE
WIND GRIDS THEN TRANSITION TO SUPERBLEND WINDS LATE MONDAY. FOR
WAVES: A SOUTHEASTERLY FETCH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
GULF OF MAINE SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE EASTERLY LATER
MONDAY. EXPECT LARGEST WAVES MONDAY NIGHT WITH A COMBINATION OF
SOUTHEASTERLY LONG PERIOD WAVES AND SHORTER PERIOD NORTHEASTERLY
WIND WAVE. SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE LATER MONDAY FOR BOTH WINDS
AND SEAS.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST TODAY ALONG WITH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY
LEVELS. THIS WILL KEEP AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER ACROSS THE REGION.
WIND GUSTS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 10 TO 15 MPH. HOWEVER...AN
ONSHORE WIND WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST THIS AFTERNOON
WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 MPH POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...NORCROSS
SHORT TERM...MIGNONE
LONG TERM...MIGNONE
AVIATION...NORCROSS/MIGNONE
MARINE...NORCROSS/MIGNONE
FIRE WEATHER...NORCROSS




000
FXUS61 KCAR 300838
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
438 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...THEN BEGIN TO
MOVE EAST TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE
REGION MONDAY...THEN EXIT ACROSS THE MARITIMES TUESDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...THEN BEGIN TO
MOVE EAST LATER TONIGHT. A TROF WILL EXTEND NORTHEAST TOWARD THE
REGION LATER TONIGHT FROM LOW PRESSURE LOCATED TO THE SOUTHWEST.
GENERALLY EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY
THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. CLOUD COVER WILL THEN BEGIN TO INCREASE
LATER TONIGHT...PARTICULARLY ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM
THE LOWER TO MID 50S NORTH...TO THE MID 50S INTERIOR DOWNEAST.
LOWER TO MID 50S ARE ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS COASTAL DOWNEAST AREAS
WHERE ONSHORE WINDS WILL DEVELOP. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL
GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30 NORTH...TO THE
LOWER TO MID 30S DOWNEAST.
&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TO THE EAST OF THE AREA
EARLY SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION...MOSTLY IN THE FROM OF RAIN...WILL
SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY MONDAY. AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
RE-DEVELOPS IN THE GULF OF MAINE LATER IN THE DAY MONDAY A SOAKING
RAIN WILL POSSIBLY DEVELOP ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. THE RAIN IS
THEN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO MONDAY EVENING. EXCEPT FOR SOME
SNOW MIXED IN EARLY MONDAY MORNING IN HIGHER TERRAIN...ALL OF THE
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE FROM OF RAIN.
&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RAIN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY EVENING AS LOW
PRESSURES MOVES ALONG THE COAST THEN TRANSITION TO SHOWERS LATE AT
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. MORE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY AS UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION TODAY
THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY. MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: FOR SUSTAINED WINDS WILL USE THE NAM12 TO POPULATE
WIND GRIDS THEN TRANSITION TO SUPERBLEND WINDS LATE MONDAY. FOR
WAVES: A SOUTHEASTERLY FETCH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
GULF OF MAINE SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE EASTERLY LATER
MONDAY. EXPECT LARGEST WAVES MONDAY NIGHT WITH A COMBINATION OF
SOUTHEASTERLY LONG PERIOD WAVES AND SHORTER PERIOD NORTHEASTERLY
WIND WAVE. SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE LATER MONDAY FOR BOTH WINDS
AND SEAS.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST TODAY ALONG WITH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY
LEVELS. THIS WILL KEEP AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER ACROSS THE REGION.
WIND GUSTS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 10 TO 15 MPH. HOWEVER...AN
ONSHORE WIND WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST THIS AFTERNOON
WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 MPH POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...NORCROSS
SHORT TERM...MIGNONE
LONG TERM...MIGNONE
AVIATION...NORCROSS/MIGNONE
MARINE...NORCROSS/MIGNONE
FIRE WEATHER...NORCROSS




000
FXUS61 KGYX 300734
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
334 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC AND THE CANADIAN
MARITIME PROVINCES TODAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK THROUGH THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND THEN OFFSHORE TO THE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH A PERIOD OF RAIN EXPECTED. A LARGE TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO NEW ENGLAND ON WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN
NEAR THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND...KEEPING COOL TEMPERATURES AND
WET WEATHER IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
500 MB WAVE CROSSING NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT IS PRODUCING MAINLY A
DECK OF CIRRUS...BUT HIS SHOULD SHIFT EAST OF THE CWA AROUND OR
SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE MAKING FOR A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY WITH JUST SOME
PATCHY CIRRUS AND A FEW SCT STRATOCU THAT WILL FORM ALONG SEA
BREEZE FRONT AS IT WORKS INLAND. THE LACK OF ANY PRE GRADIENT WILL
ALLOW THE SEA BREEZE TO WORK FAIRLY FAIR INLAND AND THIS WILL KEEP
TEMPS DOWN IN THE LOW TO MID 50S NEAR THE COAST...BUT REACH UP TO
AROUND 60 INLAND AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT WILL SEE THE SFC RIDGE BEGIN TO SHIFT SLOWLY OFFSHORE...A
PROCESS THAT WILL TAKE INTO SUNDAY TO FINISH...AS 500 MB RIDGING
BUILDS JUST TO OUR EAST. LOOK FOR CLOUDS TO INCREASE FROM THE
WEST...BUT ANY RAIN SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL...AT LEAST...AFTER
SUNRISE ON SUNDAY. MINS WILL LKLY OCCUR CLOSER TO MIDNIGHT WITH
TEMPS STEADY OR RISING AFTER THAT...AND WILL BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 30S.

THE BIG QUESTION FOR SUNDAY IS HOW QUICKLY THE RAIN MOVES IN...AND
HOW FAR EAST IT GETS. ANY PRECIP IS DRIVEN BY SOME MID LVL ISENTROPIC
LIFT...MAINLY IN THE 600-800MB RANGE. THE NAM BRINGS A ROUND OF
RAIN INTO NH SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WHILE THE EURO HOLDS IT BACK A
LITTLE LONGER. THERE IS PROBABLY ENOUGH TO LIFT TO GENERATE A FEW
SHOWERS OR SOME VERY LIGHT RAIN IN NH SOMETIME TUE AFTERNOON...BUT
DYNAMIC FORCING IS FORCED BY 500MB WAVE CRASHING INTO RIDGE SO
HOLDING OFF LKLY POPS UNTIL MID-LATE AFTERNOON IN NH AND JUST
KEEPING CHC IN ME. MAX T WILL BE AFFECTED BY CLOUDS AND RAIN...AND
WARMEST TEMPS WILL BE IN THE INLAND KENNEBEC AND PENOBSCOT VALLEY
WHERE HIGHS COULD GET CLOSE TO 60. ELSEWHERE LOOK FOR LOW TO MID
50S AT BEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT TRACKS EAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
AND NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS WILL DRIVE SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES... WITH A NEW AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE FORMING NEAR THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE. THE
NEW LOW BECOMES DOMINANT BY MONDAY NIGHT AS IT CONTINUES EASTWARD
INTO THE ATLANTIC TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA. SHOULD SEE AN INITIAL AREA
OF RAIN SUNDAY EVENING WITH A LEADING SHORTWAVE TROUGH BEFORE
ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN BEGINS MONDAY MORNING LASTING INTO MONDAY
EVENING AS THE OFFSHORE LOW BEGINS TO TAKE OVER. WITH THE COASTAL
LOW FORMING IT WILL PULL IN COLDER AIR ON THE BACK SIDE OF IT JUST
AS PRECIPITATION IS ENDING. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR A BRIEF CHANGE TO
SNOW MAINLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN BUT POSSIBLY EXTENDING INTO THE
VALLEYS OF NORTHWEST MAINE AND NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE MONDAY
EVENING. THE ECMWF IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE HAND OFF BETWEEN
THE FIRST SURFACE LOW AND THE DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW... AND AS A
RESULT THE ECMWF SCENARIO WOULD GIVE THE BEST CHANCE OF A CHANGE
OVER TO SNOW AS PRECIPITATION ENDS.

SHOULD SEE A BREAK ON TUESDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE AREA. TEMPERATURES REMAIN COOL WITH HIGHS REACHING THE UPPER
50S TO LOW 60S.

ON WEDNESDAY A LARGE TROUGH BEGINS TO DIG INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND
CUTS ITSELF OFF OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. CUT OFF LOWS AND
THE ASSOCIATED MINOR WAVES ROTATING AROUND THEM ARE NOTORIOUSLY
DIFFICULT FOR MODELS TO FORECAST... SO THE SPECIFIC DETAILS OF THE
FORECAST FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD ARE VERY MURKY. BUT WITH THE LOW
JUST TO OUR WEST EXPECT OUR AREA TO SEE AT LEAST A FEW ROUNDS OF
WET WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR JUST BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS...VULNERABLE TO AN ONSHORE FLOW. WITH A LONG FETCH OF
SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE
CUT OFF LOW... THIS WOULD PUT US IN A FAVORABLE POSITION FOR
SEEING A HEAVY PRECIPITATION EVENT IF AND WHEN A MORE SUBSTANTIAL
SURFACE LOW CAN FORM AND TRACK NORTHWARD TOWARD THE AREA. THE
LATEST ECMWF DEVELOPS JUST SUCH A SYSTEM ON THURSDAY... THOUGH
GIVEN THE DIFFICULTY IN TIMING THE MINOR WAVES WITHIN A CUT OFF
LOW... THIS SYSTEM COULD AFFECT OUR AREA ANYTIME FROM THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY SO WE CANNOT BE TOO CONFIDENT ON TIMING OF THE
BEST RAIN CHANCES AT THIS POINT IN TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR THRU SUN MORNING. SHOULD SEE CONDS DROP TO MVFR
IN THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NH. COULD SEE SOME LATE IFR
MOVE IN AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS LATE SUNDAY AS WELL.

LONG TERM...SHOULD SEE A GOOD PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS AS EARLY AS
SUNDAY NIGHT BUT FOCUSED MAINLY ON THE MONDAY TIME FRAME.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEPARTS TO THE
EAST.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WIND WILL BE VERY LIGHT OVERALL...BUT WILL TURN
ONSHORE NEAR THE COAST AND INCREASE TO ABOUT 10 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON IN SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS.

LONG TERM...LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING JUST SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND ON
MONDAY WILL TRACK EASTWARD NEAR THE GULF OF MAINE. DEPENDING ON
THE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THE LOW... THIS COULD PROVIDE A PERIOD
OF STRONGER EASTERLY WINDS. THIS EASTERLY FLOW WILL PRODUCE A
FAVORABLE FETCH FOR LARGER WAVES IN THE GULF OF MAINE MONDAY INTO
EARLY TUESDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP RH MODERATE TODAY OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN.
ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAINS A MUCH DRIER AIR MASS WILL
BRING RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DOWN TO 25 TO 30 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL BE VERY LIGHT...BUT FUELS REMAIN DRY SO FIRE DANGER
MAY STAY ELEVATED. MUCH OF THE AREA WILL SEE RAINFALL SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...WITH WETTING RAINS POSSIBLE FOR MANY OF THOSE LOCATIONS.


&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...CEMPA
LONG TERM... KIMBLE




000
FXUS61 KGYX 300734
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
334 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC AND THE CANADIAN
MARITIME PROVINCES TODAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK THROUGH THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND THEN OFFSHORE TO THE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH A PERIOD OF RAIN EXPECTED. A LARGE TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO NEW ENGLAND ON WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN
NEAR THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND...KEEPING COOL TEMPERATURES AND
WET WEATHER IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
500 MB WAVE CROSSING NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT IS PRODUCING MAINLY A
DECK OF CIRRUS...BUT HIS SHOULD SHIFT EAST OF THE CWA AROUND OR
SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE MAKING FOR A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY WITH JUST SOME
PATCHY CIRRUS AND A FEW SCT STRATOCU THAT WILL FORM ALONG SEA
BREEZE FRONT AS IT WORKS INLAND. THE LACK OF ANY PRE GRADIENT WILL
ALLOW THE SEA BREEZE TO WORK FAIRLY FAIR INLAND AND THIS WILL KEEP
TEMPS DOWN IN THE LOW TO MID 50S NEAR THE COAST...BUT REACH UP TO
AROUND 60 INLAND AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT WILL SEE THE SFC RIDGE BEGIN TO SHIFT SLOWLY OFFSHORE...A
PROCESS THAT WILL TAKE INTO SUNDAY TO FINISH...AS 500 MB RIDGING
BUILDS JUST TO OUR EAST. LOOK FOR CLOUDS TO INCREASE FROM THE
WEST...BUT ANY RAIN SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL...AT LEAST...AFTER
SUNRISE ON SUNDAY. MINS WILL LKLY OCCUR CLOSER TO MIDNIGHT WITH
TEMPS STEADY OR RISING AFTER THAT...AND WILL BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 30S.

THE BIG QUESTION FOR SUNDAY IS HOW QUICKLY THE RAIN MOVES IN...AND
HOW FAR EAST IT GETS. ANY PRECIP IS DRIVEN BY SOME MID LVL ISENTROPIC
LIFT...MAINLY IN THE 600-800MB RANGE. THE NAM BRINGS A ROUND OF
RAIN INTO NH SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WHILE THE EURO HOLDS IT BACK A
LITTLE LONGER. THERE IS PROBABLY ENOUGH TO LIFT TO GENERATE A FEW
SHOWERS OR SOME VERY LIGHT RAIN IN NH SOMETIME TUE AFTERNOON...BUT
DYNAMIC FORCING IS FORCED BY 500MB WAVE CRASHING INTO RIDGE SO
HOLDING OFF LKLY POPS UNTIL MID-LATE AFTERNOON IN NH AND JUST
KEEPING CHC IN ME. MAX T WILL BE AFFECTED BY CLOUDS AND RAIN...AND
WARMEST TEMPS WILL BE IN THE INLAND KENNEBEC AND PENOBSCOT VALLEY
WHERE HIGHS COULD GET CLOSE TO 60. ELSEWHERE LOOK FOR LOW TO MID
50S AT BEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT TRACKS EAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
AND NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS WILL DRIVE SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES... WITH A NEW AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE FORMING NEAR THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE. THE
NEW LOW BECOMES DOMINANT BY MONDAY NIGHT AS IT CONTINUES EASTWARD
INTO THE ATLANTIC TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA. SHOULD SEE AN INITIAL AREA
OF RAIN SUNDAY EVENING WITH A LEADING SHORTWAVE TROUGH BEFORE
ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN BEGINS MONDAY MORNING LASTING INTO MONDAY
EVENING AS THE OFFSHORE LOW BEGINS TO TAKE OVER. WITH THE COASTAL
LOW FORMING IT WILL PULL IN COLDER AIR ON THE BACK SIDE OF IT JUST
AS PRECIPITATION IS ENDING. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR A BRIEF CHANGE TO
SNOW MAINLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN BUT POSSIBLY EXTENDING INTO THE
VALLEYS OF NORTHWEST MAINE AND NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE MONDAY
EVENING. THE ECMWF IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE HAND OFF BETWEEN
THE FIRST SURFACE LOW AND THE DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW... AND AS A
RESULT THE ECMWF SCENARIO WOULD GIVE THE BEST CHANCE OF A CHANGE
OVER TO SNOW AS PRECIPITATION ENDS.

SHOULD SEE A BREAK ON TUESDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE AREA. TEMPERATURES REMAIN COOL WITH HIGHS REACHING THE UPPER
50S TO LOW 60S.

ON WEDNESDAY A LARGE TROUGH BEGINS TO DIG INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND
CUTS ITSELF OFF OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. CUT OFF LOWS AND
THE ASSOCIATED MINOR WAVES ROTATING AROUND THEM ARE NOTORIOUSLY
DIFFICULT FOR MODELS TO FORECAST... SO THE SPECIFIC DETAILS OF THE
FORECAST FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD ARE VERY MURKY. BUT WITH THE LOW
JUST TO OUR WEST EXPECT OUR AREA TO SEE AT LEAST A FEW ROUNDS OF
WET WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR JUST BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS...VULNERABLE TO AN ONSHORE FLOW. WITH A LONG FETCH OF
SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE
CUT OFF LOW... THIS WOULD PUT US IN A FAVORABLE POSITION FOR
SEEING A HEAVY PRECIPITATION EVENT IF AND WHEN A MORE SUBSTANTIAL
SURFACE LOW CAN FORM AND TRACK NORTHWARD TOWARD THE AREA. THE
LATEST ECMWF DEVELOPS JUST SUCH A SYSTEM ON THURSDAY... THOUGH
GIVEN THE DIFFICULTY IN TIMING THE MINOR WAVES WITHIN A CUT OFF
LOW... THIS SYSTEM COULD AFFECT OUR AREA ANYTIME FROM THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY SO WE CANNOT BE TOO CONFIDENT ON TIMING OF THE
BEST RAIN CHANCES AT THIS POINT IN TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR THRU SUN MORNING. SHOULD SEE CONDS DROP TO MVFR
IN THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NH. COULD SEE SOME LATE IFR
MOVE IN AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS LATE SUNDAY AS WELL.

LONG TERM...SHOULD SEE A GOOD PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS AS EARLY AS
SUNDAY NIGHT BUT FOCUSED MAINLY ON THE MONDAY TIME FRAME.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEPARTS TO THE
EAST.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WIND WILL BE VERY LIGHT OVERALL...BUT WILL TURN
ONSHORE NEAR THE COAST AND INCREASE TO ABOUT 10 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON IN SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS.

LONG TERM...LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING JUST SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND ON
MONDAY WILL TRACK EASTWARD NEAR THE GULF OF MAINE. DEPENDING ON
THE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THE LOW... THIS COULD PROVIDE A PERIOD
OF STRONGER EASTERLY WINDS. THIS EASTERLY FLOW WILL PRODUCE A
FAVORABLE FETCH FOR LARGER WAVES IN THE GULF OF MAINE MONDAY INTO
EARLY TUESDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP RH MODERATE TODAY OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN.
ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAINS A MUCH DRIER AIR MASS WILL
BRING RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DOWN TO 25 TO 30 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL BE VERY LIGHT...BUT FUELS REMAIN DRY SO FIRE DANGER
MAY STAY ELEVATED. MUCH OF THE AREA WILL SEE RAINFALL SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...WITH WETTING RAINS POSSIBLE FOR MANY OF THOSE LOCATIONS.


&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...CEMPA
LONG TERM... KIMBLE




000
FXUS61 KCAR 300447
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1247 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...THEN BEGIN TO
MOVE EAST TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL
COMBINE WITH LOW PRESSURE TRACKING SOUTH OF THE REGION TO BRING
AN UNSETTLED PERIOD OF WEATHER SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH A
PERIOD OF RAIN EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE
REGION ON TUESDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER
TO MID 20S NORTH...TO AROUND 30 TO THE LOWER 30S DOWNEAST. HAVE
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADJUST FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS ALONG WITH
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES AND CLOUD COVER.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE.

CURRENT PATTERN: DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE
REGION. HEADING THROUGH THE NEAR TERM FORECAST PERIOD...A
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT WITH A SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS REMAINING OVERHEAD THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY...ENSURING
A QUIET PERIOD OF WEATHER.
&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL.

AN UNSETTLED PERIOD OF WEATHER LOOKS TO BE IN STORE THROUGH THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD AS EAST COAST TROUGHING BEGINS TO
AMPLIFY.  SHORTWAVE PASSES OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW STRENGTHENING AS IT MOVES FROM SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND COAST MONDAY MORNING TO A LOCATION IN THE OUTER GULF OF
MAINE WATERS BY MONDAY EVENING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL ATTEMPT TO HOLD ON THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY AND
GIVEN THE VERY DRY ANTECEDENT AIRMASS...DO EXPECT THAT WE/LL MAKE IT
THROUGH MUCH IF NOT ALL OF THE DAY DRY WITH INCREASING MID AND UPPER
LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED.

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY THE RECENT STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER WILL
COME TO AND END...AS A SERIES OF UPSTREAM SHORTWAVES PUSH INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN STATES.  INITIAL PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS SUNDAY NIGHT IN
ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING INVERTED TROUGH ACROSS THE REGION.
PWATS ARE NOT TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE /0.5-0.75"/ AND WITH SYNOPTIC
FORCING INITIALLY ALSO NOT STRONG...EXPECT IT WILL TAKE MOST OF
SUNDAY NIGHT TO SATURATE THE COLUMN WITH SHOWERS INCREASING IN
COVERAGE FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT.  CERTAINLY A MUCH WARMER NIGHT
GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION...WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE
MID TO UPPER 30S THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AREA.  AFOREMENTIONED LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES SOUTH OF THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH SOME
DISAGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO IT/S EXACT TRACK AND STRENGTH /ECMWF
STRONGER AND FURTHER NORTH THAN THE GFS/. FEEL THAT THIS IS THE BEST
THREAT OF BONA-FIDE RAINFALL DURING THE PERIOD...PRIMARILY FOR
DOWNEAST AREAS...WITH AT LEAST SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY NORTH OF THIS.

A MORE ECMWF-LIKE SOLUTION WOULD SPELL A SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER QPF
SCENARIO /0.5-0.75"/...AND THE EC DOES HAVE GOOD ENSEMBLE
SUPPORT...SO WILL CONTINUE TO BOOST POPS FOR MONDAY /AND INTO MONDAY
NIGHT/.  IT LOOKS LIKE WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO MAINTAIN AN ALL RAIN
SCENARIO /EXCEPT IN THE MOUNTAINS/...BUT IT WILL BE SOMEWHAT CLOSE
WITH T8S BELOW FREEZING AWAY FROM THE COAST. CERTAINLY A RAW/DAMP
DAY.
&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL.

PATTERN SUMMARY: EARLY AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE
INFLUENCE OF THE NORTHERN STREAM ACROSS THE REGION WITH
SIGNIFICANT BLOCKING ALONG THE WEST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA IN THE
FORM OF A REX BLOCK CENTERED CLOSE TO THE AXIS OF THE ROCKY
MOUNTAINS...WHICH IS HELPING TO HALT ANY ONSHORE FLOW FROM THE
PACIFIC. THIS CURRENT THEME IS GENERALLY EXPECTED TO HOLD THROUGH
THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD. THERE IS GOOD
DETERMINISTIC/ENSEMBLE FORECAST AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
ANCHORING THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE REX BLOCK WILL FILL AND LIFT
NORTHEAST...WITH LONGWAVE RIDGING SETTING UP ACROSS WESTERN NORTH
AMERICA WITH SUBSEQUENT DOWNSTREAM TROUGHING STRENGTHENING ACROSS
THE EASTERN HALF OF NORTH AMERICA. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE
INFLUENCE OF THE NORTHERN STREAM AND POLAR AIRMASSES THROUGH THE
LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD...GENERALLY SPELLING A PERIOD WITH AT OR
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

MODEL AGREEMENT/CONFIDENCE:   STRONG AGREEMENT ON THE LONGWAVE
PATTERN EXISTS THROUGH ABOUT WEDNESDAY...BEFORE DISAGREEMENT QUICKLY
ENSUES WITH REGARDS TO HOW STRONG THE TROUGH OVER EASTERN NORTH
AMERICA WILL BE AND WHETHER IT WILL CUT OFF FROM THE FLOW ALOFT.
THIS DISPARITY ISN`T THAT SURPRISING IN POTENTIAL CUT OFF LOW
SCENARIOS....BUT DOES SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE CONFIDENCE IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. REGARDLESS...THE IDEA OF
TROUGHING IN THE EAST IS WELL-AGREED UPON.

THE DETAILS...

LOW PRESSURE PULLS EAST OF THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH
ONLY WEAK RIDGING BUILDING IN IN ITS WAKE. OTHER THAN A FEW
RESIDUAL SHOWERS...EXPECT A DRYING TREND WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOWER 50S.

CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE TO HIGH IN ANOTHER UNSETTLED PERIOD OF
WEATHER FOR THE WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY AS EASTERN TROUGH DEEPENS
FURTHER WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR COASTAL LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT.
DETAILS ON SPECIFICS LIKE QPF ARE CERTAINLY NOT CLEAR AT THIS
TIME...BUT WILL BOOST POPS INTO THE HIGH CHANCE CATEGORY.
UNFORTUNATELY...THIS WILL CONTINUE TO SPELL AT OR BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...PARTICULARLY ON THURSDAY WHEN THE AGREEMENT ON
PRECIPITATION IS HIGHEST.

CONFIDENCE DIMINISHES GREATLY BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
FRIDAY. CERTAINLY AN ABOVE-CLIMO POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS WITH
TROUGHING /AND PERHAPS A CUTOFF LOW/ REMAINING OVERHEAD. WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES A TAD BELOW SEASONAL NORMS GIVEN THE TROUGH LOCATION
AND THE PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL.
&&

.AVIATION /04Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

SHORT TERM:  VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY WITH
CONDITIONS LIKELY DETERIORATING SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH A
PERIOD OF MVFR /AND POTENTIALLY IFR/ RESTRICTIONS
LIKELY...ESPECIALLY AT BGR/BHB.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS OVERNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

SHORT TERM: THE NEXT THREAT OF SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL COME
ON MONDAY DUE TO STRENGTHENING EASTERLY WINDS AS LOW PRESSURE
PASSES OVER OR JUST SOUTH OF THE WATERS. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...NORCROSS/VJN
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...NORCROSS/VJN
MARINE...NORCROSS/VJN




000
FXUS61 KGYX 300401
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1201 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND THROUGH TOMORROW. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP SOUTH OF
THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND THEN MOVE SOUTH OF CAPE COD ON MONDAY. THIS
SYSTEM WILL KEEP CONDITIONS IN THE REGION COOL AND WET INTO
TUESDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT OF PRECIPITATION WITH IT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
MIDNIGHT...JUST A QUICK UPDATE TO MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
BASED ON CURRENT OBS. THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS...AND MINS WERE ADJUSTED UP JUST A BIT IN SOME SPOTS. ALSO
RADAR ECHOES OF 10-20 DBZ OVER SW NH AT ABOUT 10K FT AND VERY
LKLY NOT GOING TO REACH THE GROUND AS THEY WILL DISSIPATE IN THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.


REMAINING MARINE STRATUS WILL SCATTER OUT AND DISSIPATE WITH LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING. FARTHER W A WEAK S/WV WILL CROSS SRN NEW
ENGLAND. THIS WILL BRING A BRIEF INCREASE IN CLOUDS FOR SRN NH
ESPECIALLY...BUT CLEARING OR THINNING OF CLOUDS WILL EVENTUALLY
TAKE PLACE OVERNIGHT. TO THE N WE SHOULD RADIATE QUICKLY AFTER
DARK...WITH SRN ZONES TAKING LONGER TO REACH LOW TEMPS. ANOTHER
CHILLY NIGHT THOUGH FOR THE NRN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES SAT. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ARE A LITTLE MORE DRY ALOFT AND MARINE STRATUS LOOKS
LIKE LIKELY THAN TODAY. HOWEVER THE WIND OFF THE WATER WILL STILL
KEEP COASTAL LOCATIONS COOLER THAN THE INTERIOR. MESOSCALE MODELS
HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS LOOK...SO TEMP BLENDS ARE MORE HEAVILY
WEIGHTED IN THEIR DIRECTION.

NEXT WAVE APPROACHES SAT NIGHT. MAIN IMPACT WILL BE INCREASING
CLOUDS AND WARMER TEMPS OVERNIGHT. PRECIP LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD
DELAY UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK SUN...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE SOME SHOWERS
SNEAK INTO WRN NH BEFORE THAT TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT IN PLACE TO START SUNDAY WITH AN APPROACHING
DISTURBANCE. OVERALL PATTERN IS NOT VERY ORGANIZED... BUT WILL
BECOME MORE SO AS THE DAY PROGRESSES AND ON MONDAY. SURFACE LOW
BEGINS TO FORM AND DEEPEN OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES SUNDAY
NIGHT. AS THE SYSTEM SLIDES SOUTH OF CAPE COD EXPECT A DECENT
PRECIPITATION SHIELD ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE LOW TO AFFECT THE
REGION. TEMPERATURES LOOK LIKE THEY SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP
THINGS RAIN AT ALL LOCATIONS EXCEPT A FEW MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS.

SYSTEM PULLS OFF TO THE EAST ON TUESDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND DRY CONDITIONS RETURN. LONG
WAVE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES BEGINS TO SHIFT A BIT FURTHER
EAST LATE ON TUESDAY AS THE FLOW OVER THE EAST COAST BECOMES MORE
MERIDIONAL. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FORMING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TO MOVE NORTHWARD AND
PASS OVER CAPE COD BY THURSDAY MORNING. THIS WILL AGAIN BRING
PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...MARINE STRATUS IN THE PROCESS OF
SCATTERING OUT...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY FORECAST SOUNDINGS. SOME
HIGH CLOUDS WILL APPROACH FROM THE W OVERNIGHT BUT CIGS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE VFR THRU SUN MORNING. SELY ONSHORE FLOW
WILL PICK UP AGAIN SAT FOR PSM...PWM...RKD...AND AUG...MAYBE AS
FAR W AS MHT.

LONG TERM...VFR TO START SUNDAY BUT AS PRECIPITATION SETS UP
SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL WITH
SOME LIFR AREAS POSSIBLE AT COASTAL LOCATIONS. VFR CONDITIONS
RETURN FOR TUESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW GENERALLY S
TO SE WILL CONTINUE INTO SAT. WINDS GUSTS WILL REMAIN BELOW 25
KTS...AND SEAS BELOW 5 FT.

LONG TERM...WINDS AND SEAS MAY COME UP ENOUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY TO REQUIRE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING A MARITIME INFLUENCE INLAND OVERNIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. MODERATE TO HIGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
BE IN PLACE ALONG THE COAST AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF NEW
HAMPSHIRE AND WESTERN MAINE. ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND
MOUNTAINS A MUCH DRIER AIR MASS WILL BRING RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES DOWN TO AROUND 25 PERCENT DURING SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND UNDER RED FLAG CRITERIA...BUT FUELS
REMAIN DRY SO FIRE DANGER MAY STAY ELEVATED. MUCH OF THE AREA
WILL SEE RAINFALL SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WITH WETTING RAINS
POSSIBLE FOR MANY OF THOSE LOCATIONS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
FIRE WEATHER...




000
FXUS61 KCAR 300153
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
953 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH SATURDAY WITH GRADUALLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES.
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL COMBINE WITH LOW PRESSURE PASSING
SOUTH OF THE REGION TO BRING AN UNSETTLED PERIOD OF WEATHER SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH A PERIOD OF RAIN EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
945 PM UPDATE: WE NOTED SOME HI CLDNSS SPREADING INTO SRN PTNS OF
OUR FA FROM SRN QB AND NW NEW ENG. HI LVL RH PROGS FROM THE 18Z
GFS INDICATE THAT THESE CLDS ARE LIKELY TO CONT THRU MOST OF THE
NGT...SO WE ADDED JUST ENOUGH CLD CVR TO RESULT IN MCLR SKIES OVR
THE S HLF OF THE FA RATHER THAN CLR...WITH MOST OF THIS CLD CVR
TRANSLUCENT CI/CS. OTHERWISE...OBSVD 9 PM TEMPS WERE USED TO
ADJUST FCST HRLY TEMPS OVRNGT TO UNCHGD FCST LOW TEMPS POSTED AT
5-6AM SAT.

ORGNL DISC: HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE.

CURRENT PATTERN: DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE
REGION AS OF THIS WRITING WITH VISIBLE/INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
REVEALING LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDINESS SAVE A BATCH OF
CUMULUS ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MAINE BENEATH A BUBBLE HIGH
SITTING OVER THE GULF OF MAINE. HEADING THROUGH THE NEAR TERM
FORECAST PERIOD...SHORTWAVE SEEN IN AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
OVER LOWER MICHIGAN WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST TONIGHT WITH SURFACE RIDGE AXIS REMAINING OVERHEAD
THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY...ENSURING A QUIET PERIOD OF WEATHER.

PRIMARY CONCERNS TONIGHT CENTER AROUND CLOUD TRENDS...AS THE AREA
OF CU/STRATOCU TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST MAY RE-CONGEAL AND MAKE A
RUN TOWARDS BGR/BHB. IN ADDITION...EXPECT SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS
OVER SOUTHERN AREAS DUE TO AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE PASSING SOUTH
OF THE REGION. NOT TERRIBLY EXCITED ABOUT ANYTHING MORE THAN
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...AND WILL WORD THE FORECAST ACCORDINGLY.

LIGHT WINDS AND A VERY DRY AIRMASS WILL AGAIN ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO DROP WELL BELOW SEASONAL NORMS...WITH A FEW UPPER TEENS
NORTH...TO AROUND FREEZING ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL.

AN UNSETTLED PERIOD OF WEATHER LOOKS TO BE IN STORE THROUGH THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD AS EAST COAST TROUGHING BEGINS TO
AMPLIFY.  SHORTWAVE PASSES OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW STRENGTHENING AS IT MOVES FROM SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND COAST MONDAY MORNING TO A LOCATION IN THE OUTER GULF OF
MAINE WATERS BY MONDAY EVENING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL ATTEMPT TO HOLD ON THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY AND
GIVEN THE VERY DRY ANTECEDENT AIRMASS...DO EXPECT THAT WE/LL MAKE IT
THROUGH MUCH IF NOT ALL OF THE DAY DRY WITH INCREASING MID AND UPPER
LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED.

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY THE RECENT STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER WILL
COME TO AND END...AS A SERIES OF UPSTREAM SHORTWAVES PUSH INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN STATES.  INITIAL PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS SUNDAY NIGHT IN
ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING INVERTED TROUGH ACROSS THE REGION.
PWATS ARE NOT TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE /0.5-0.75"/ AND WITH SYNOPTIC
FORCING INITIALLY ALSO NOT STRONG...EXPECT IT WILL TAKE MOST OF
SUNDAY NIGHT TO SATURATE THE COLUMN WITH SHOWERS INCREASING IN
COVERAGE FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT.  CERTAINLY A MUCH WARMER NIGHT
GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION...WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE
MID TO UPPER 30S THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AREA.  AFOREMENTIONED LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES SOUTH OF THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH SOME
DISAGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO IT/S EXACT TRACK AND STRENGTH /ECMWF
STRONGER AND FURTHER NORTH THAN THE GFS/. FEEL THAT THIS IS THE BEST
THREAT OF BONA-FIDE RAINFALL DURING THE PERIOD...PRIMARILY FOR
DOWNEAST AREAS...WITH AT LEAST SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY NORTH OF THIS.

A MORE ECMWF-LIKE SOLUTION WOULD SPELL A SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER QPF
SCENARIO /0.5-0.75"/...AND THE EC DOES HAVE GOOD ENSEMBLE
SUPPORT...SO WILL CONTINUE TO BOOST POPS FOR MONDAY /AND INTO MONDAY
NIGHT/.  IT LOOKS LIKE WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO MAINTAIN AN ALL RAIN
SCENARIO /EXCEPT IN THE MOUNTAINS/...BUT IT WILL BE SOMEWHAT CLOSE
WITH T8S BELOW FREEZING AWAY FROM THE COAST. CERTAINLY A RAW/DAMP
DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL.

PATTERN SUMMARY: EARLY AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE
INFLUENCE OF THE NORTHERN STREAM ACROSS THE REGION WITH
SIGNIFICANT BLOCKING ALONG THE WEST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA IN THE
FORM OF A REX BLOCK CENTERED CLOSE TO THE AXIS OF THE ROCKY
MOUNTAINS...WHICH IS HELPING TO HALT ANY ONSHORE FLOW FROM THE
PACIFIC. THIS CURRENT THEME IS GENERALLY EXPECTED TO HOLD THROUGH
THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD. THERE IS GOOD
DETERMINISTIC/ENSEMBLE FORECAST AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
ANCHORING THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE REX BLOCK WILL FILL AND LIFT
NORTHEAST...WITH LONGWAVE RIDGING SETTING UP ACROSS WESTERN NORTH
AMERICA WITH SUBSEQUENT DOWNSTREAM TROUGHING STRENGTHENING ACROSS
THE EASTERN HALF OF NORTH AMERICA. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE
INFLUENCE OF THE NORTHERN STREAM AND POLAR AIRMASSES THROUGH THE
LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD...GENERALLY SPELLING A PERIOD WITH AT OR
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

MODEL AGREEMENT/CONFIDENCE:   STRONG AGREEMENT ON THE LONGWAVE
PATTERN EXISTS THROUGH ABOUT WEDNESDAY...BEFORE DISAGREEMENT QUICKLY
ENSUES WITH REGARDS TO HOW STRONG THE TROUGH OVER EASTERN NORTH
AMERICA WILL BE AND WHETHER IT WILL CUT OFF FROM THE FLOW ALOFT.
THIS DISPARITY ISN`T THAT SURPRISING IN POTENTIAL CUT OFF LOW
SCENARIOS....BUT DOES SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE CONFIDENCE IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. REGARDLESS...THE IDEA OF
TROUGHING IN THE EAST IS WELL-AGREED UPON.

THE DETAILS...

LOW PRESSURE PULLS EAST OF THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH
ONLY WEAK RIDGING BUILDING IN IN ITS WAKE. OTHER THAN A FEW
RESIDUAL SHOWERS...EXPECT A DRYING TREND WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOWER 50S.

CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE TO HIGH IN ANOTHER UNSETTLED PERIOD OF
WEATHER FOR THE WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY AS EASTERN TROUGH DEEPENS
FURTHER WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR COASTAL LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT.
DETAILS ON SPECIFICS LIKE QPF ARE CERTAINLY NOT CLEAR AT THIS
TIME...BUT WILL BOOST POPS INTO THE HIGH CHANCE CATEGORY.
UNFORTUNATELY...THIS WILL CONTINUE TO SPELL AT OR BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...PARTICULARLY ON THURSDAY WHEN THE AGREEMENT ON
PRECIPITATION IS HIGHEST.

CONFIDENCE DIMINISHES GREATLY BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
FRIDAY. CERTAINLY AN ABOVE-CLIMO POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS WITH
TROUGHING /AND PERHAPS A CUTOFF LOW/ REMAINING OVERHEAD. WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES A TAD BELOW SEASONAL NORMS GIVEN THE TROUGH LOCATION
AND THE PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM:  VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEAR TERM
FORECAST PERIOD.  A VFR DECK OF STRATOCUMULUS CURRENTLY SOUTH AND
WEST OF THE REGION WILL MAKE A RUN AT BHB THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...BUT SEE NO WORSE THAN SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS NEAR 5KFT.
OTHERWISE CLEAR NORTH...WITH SOME CIRRUS SOUTH THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON SATURDAY.

VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT UNDER INCREASING
HIGH CLOUDS WITH WINDS DIMINISHING TO LESS THAN 5KTS.

SHORT TERM:  VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY WITH
CONDITIONS LIKELY DETERIORATING SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH A
PERIOD OF MVFR /AND POTENTIALLY IFR/ RESTRICTIONS
LIKELY...ESPECIALLY AT BGR/BHB.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/WAVES REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS THROUGH
SATURDAY.

SHORT TERM: THE NEXT THREAT OF SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL COME
ON MONDAY DUE TO STRENGTHENING EASTERLY WINDS AS LOW PRESSURE
PASSES OVER OR JUST SOUTH OF THE WATERS. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...VJN/VJN
MARINE...VJN/VJN




000
FXUS61 KGYX 292335
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
735 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND THROUGH TOMORROW. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP SOUTH OF
THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND THEN MOVE SOUTH OF CAPE COD ON MONDAY. THIS
SYSTEM WILL KEEP CONDITIONS IN THE REGION COOL AND WET INTO
TUESDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT OF PRECIPITATION WITH IT.

&&
23Z UPDATE...
HIGH CLOUDS CURRENTLY OVER-SPREADING THE REGION FROM THE WEST
EARLY THIS EVENING AND THIS WILL BE THE FARE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION OVERNIGHT. SHOULD NOT HAVE TOO MUCH AFFECT ON TEMPS BUT
SHOULD SEE READINGS SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN LAST NIGHTS. BY MIDNIGHT
NORTHERN ZONES WILL SEE TEMPS RANGING THROUGH THE 30S AND UPPER
30S TO MID 40S IN THE SOUTH. NO MAJOR CHANGES PLANNED FOR THE
CURRENT FORECAST ASIDE FROM A FEW TWEAKS TO TEMPS/TD`S.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
REMAINING MARINE STRATUS WILL SCATTER OUT AND DISSIPATE WITH LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING. FARTHER W A WEAK S/WV WILL CROSS SRN NEW
ENGLAND. THIS WILL BRING A BRIEF INCREASE IN CLOUDS FOR SRN NH
ESPECIALLY...BUT CLEARING OR THINNING OF CLOUDS WILL EVENTUALLY
TAKE PLACE OVERNIGHT. TO THE N WE SHOULD RADIATE QUICKLY AFTER
DARK...WITH SRN ZONES TAKING LONGER TO REACH LOW TEMPS. ANOTHER
CHILLY NIGHT THOUGH FOR THE NRN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES SAT. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ARE A LITTLE MORE DRY ALOFT AND MARINE STRATUS LOOKS
LIKE LIKELY THAN TODAY. HOWEVER THE WIND OFF THE WATER WILL STILL
KEEP COASTAL LOCATIONS COOLER THAN THE INTERIOR. MESOSCALE MODELS
HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS LOOK...SO TEMP BLENDS ARE MORE HEAVILY
WEIGHTED IN THEIR DIRECTION.

NEXT WAVE APPROACHES SAT NIGHT. MAIN IMPACT WILL BE INCREASING
CLOUDS AND WARMER TEMPS OVERNIGHT. PRECIP LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD
DELAY UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK SUN...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE SOME SHOWERS
SNEAK INTO WRN NH BEFORE THAT TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT IN PLACE TO START SUNDAY WITH AN APPROACHING
DISTURBANCE. OVERALL PATTERN IS NOT VERY ORGANIZED... BUT WILL
BECOME MORE SO AS THE DAY PROGRESSES AND ON MONDAY. SURFACE LOW
BEGINS TO FORM AND DEEPEN OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES SUNDAY
NIGHT. AS THE SYSTEM SLIDES SOUTH OF CAPE COD EXPECT A DECENT
PRECIPITATION SHIELD ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE LOW TO AFFECT THE
REGION. TEMPERATURES LOOK LIKE THEY SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP
THINGS RAIN AT ALL LOCATIONS EXCEPT A FEW MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS.

SYSTEM PULLS OFF TO THE EAST ON TUESDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND DRY CONDITIONS RETURN. LONG
WAVE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES BEGINS TO SHIFT A BIT FURTHER
EAST LATE ON TUESDAY AS THE FLOW OVER THE EAST COAST BECOMES MORE
MERIDIONAL. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FORMING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TO MOVE NORTHWARD AND
PASS OVER CAPE COD BY THURSDAY MORNING. THIS WILL AGAIN BRING
PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...MARINE STRATUS IN THE PROCESS OF
SCATTERING OUT...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY FORECAST SOUNDINGS. SOME
HIGH CLOUDS WILL APPROACH FROM THE W OVERNIGHT BUT CIGS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE VFR THRU SUN MORNING. SELY ONSHORE FLOW
WILL PICK UP AGAIN SAT FOR PSM...PWM...RKD...AND AUG...MAYBE AS
FAR W AS MHT.

LONG TERM...VFR TO START SUNDAY BUT AS PRECIPITATION SETS UP
SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL WITH
SOME LIFR AREAS POSSIBLE AT COASTAL LOCATIONS. VFR CONDITIONS
RETURN FOR TUESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW GENERALLY S
TO SE WILL CONTINUE INTO SAT. WINDS GUSTS WILL REMAIN BELOW 25
KTS...AND SEAS BELOW 5 FT.

LONG TERM...WINDS AND SEAS MAY COME UP ENOUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY TO REQUIRE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING A MARITIME INFLUENCE INLAND OVERNIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. MODERATE TO HIGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
BE IN PLACE ALONG THE COAST AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF NEW
HAMPSHIRE AND WESTERN MAINE. ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND
MOUNTAINS A MUCH DRIER AIR MASS WILL BRING RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES DOWN TO AROUND 25 PERCENT DURING SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND UNDER RED FLAG CRITERIA...BUT FUELS
REMAIN DRY SO FIRE DANGER MAY STAY ELEVATED. MUCH OF THE AREA
WILL SEE RAINFALL SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WITH WETTING RAINS
POSSIBLE FOR MANY OF THOSE LOCATIONS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KCAR 292224
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
624 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH SATURDAY WITH GRADUALLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES.
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL COMBINE WITH LOW PRESSURE PASSING
SOUTH OF THE REGION TO BRING AN UNSETTLED PERIOD OF WEATHER SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH A PERIOD OF RAIN EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
610 PM UPDATE: NO SIG CHGS TO CURRENT FCST IN THE NEAR TERM.
LATEST OBSVD TEMPS WERE USED TO ADJUST FCST HRLY TEMPS OVRNGT TO
UNCHGD FCST LOW TEMPS POSTED AT 5-6AM SAT.

ORGNL DISC: HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE.

CURRENT PATTERN: DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE
REGION AS OF THIS WRITING WITH VISIBLE/INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
REVEALING LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDINESS SAVE A BATCH OF
CUMULUS ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MAINE BENEATH A BUBBLE HIGH
SITTING OVER THE GULF OF MAINE. HEADING THROUGH THE NEAR TERM
FORECAST PERIOD...SHORTWAVE SEEN IN AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
OVER LOWER MICHIGAN WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST TONIGHT WITH SURFACE RIDGE AXIS REMAINING OVERHEAD
THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY...ENSURING A QUIET PERIOD OF WEATHER.

PRIMARY CONCERNS TONIGHT CENTER AROUND CLOUD TRENDS...AS THE AREA
OF CU/STRATOCU TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST MAY RE-CONGEAL AND MAKE A
RUN TOWARDS BGR/BHB. IN ADDITION...EXPECT SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS
OVER SOUTHERN AREAS DUE TO AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE PASSING SOUTH
OF THE REGION. NOT TERRIBLY EXCITED ABOUT ANYTHING MORE THAN
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...AND WILL WORD THE FORECAST ACCORDINGLY.

LIGHT WINDS AND A VERY DRY AIRMASS WILL AGAIN ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO DROP WELL BELOW SEASONAL NORMS...WITH A FEW UPPER TEENS
NORTH...TO AROUND FREEZING ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL.

AN UNSETTLED PERIOD OF WEATHER LOOKS TO BE IN STORE THROUGH THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD AS EAST COAST TROUGHING BEGINS TO
AMPLIFY.  SHORTWAVE PASSES OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW STRENGTHENING AS IT MOVES FROM SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND COAST MONDAY MORNING TO A LOCATION IN THE OUTER GULF OF
MAINE WATERS BY MONDAY EVENING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL ATTEMPT TO HOLD ON THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY AND
GIVEN THE VERY DRY ANTECEDENT AIRMASS...DO EXPECT THAT WE/LL MAKE IT
THROUGH MUCH IF NOT ALL OF THE DAY DRY WITH INCREASING MID AND UPPER
LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED.

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY THE RECENT STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER WILL
COME TO AND END...AS A SERIES OF UPSTREAM SHORTWAVES PUSH INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN STATES.  INITIAL PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS SUNDAY NIGHT IN
ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING INVERTED TROUGH ACROSS THE REGION.
PWATS ARE NOT TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE /0.5-0.75"/ AND WITH SYNOPTIC
FORCING INITIALLY ALSO NOT STRONG...EXPECT IT WILL TAKE MOST OF
SUNDAY NIGHT TO SATURATE THE COLUMN WITH SHOWERS INCREASING IN
COVERAGE FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT.  CERTAINLY A MUCH WARMER NIGHT
GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION...WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE
MID TO UPPER 30S THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AREA.  AFOREMENTIONED LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES SOUTH OF THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH SOME
DISAGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO IT/S EXACT TRACK AND STRENGTH /ECMWF
STRONGER AND FURTHER NORTH THAN THE GFS/. FEEL THAT THIS IS THE BEST
THREAT OF BONA-FIDE RAINFALL DURING THE PERIOD...PRIMARILY FOR
DOWNEAST AREAS...WITH AT LEAST SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY NORTH OF THIS.

A MORE ECMWF-LIKE SOLUTION WOULD SPELL A SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER QPF
SCENARIO /0.5-0.75"/...AND THE EC DOES HAVE GOOD ENSEMBLE
SUPPORT...SO WILL CONTINUE TO BOOST POPS FOR MONDAY /AND INTO MONDAY
NIGHT/.  IT LOOKS LIKE WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO MAINTAIN AN ALL RAIN
SCENARIO /EXCEPT IN THE MOUNTAINS/...BUT IT WILL BE SOMEWHAT CLOSE
WITH T8S BELOW FREEZING AWAY FROM THE COAST. CERTAINLY A RAW/DAMP
DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL.

PATTERN SUMMARY: EARLY AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE
INFLUENCE OF THE NORTHERN STREAM ACROSS THE REGION WITH
SIGNIFICANT BLOCKING ALONG THE WEST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA IN THE
FORM OF A REX BLOCK CENTERED CLOSE TO THE AXIS OF THE ROCKY
MOUNTAINS...WHICH IS HELPING TO HALT ANY ONSHORE FLOW FROM THE
PACIFIC. THIS CURRENT THEME IS GENERALLY EXPECTED TO HOLD THROUGH
THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD. THERE IS GOOD
DETERMINISTIC/ENSEMBLE FORECAST AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
ANCHORING THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE REX BLOCK WILL FILL AND LIFT
NORTHEAST...WITH LONGWAVE RIDGING SETTING UP ACROSS WESTERN NORTH
AMERICA WITH SUBSEQUENT DOWNSTREAM TROUGHING STRENGTHENING ACROSS
THE EASTERN HALF OF NORTH AMERICA. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE
INFLUENCE OF THE NORTHERN STREAM AND POLAR AIRMASSES THROUGH THE
LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD...GENERALLY SPELLING A PERIOD WITH AT OR
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

MODEL AGREEMENT/CONFIDENCE:   STRONG AGREEMENT ON THE LONGWAVE
PATTERN EXISTS THROUGH ABOUT WEDNESDAY...BEFORE DISAGREEMENT QUICKLY
ENSUES WITH REGARDS TO HOW STRONG THE TROUGH OVER EASTERN NORTH
AMERICA WILL BE AND WHETHER IT WILL CUT OFF FROM THE FLOW ALOFT.
THIS DISPARITY ISN`T THAT SURPRISING IN POTENTIAL CUT OFF LOW
SCENARIOS....BUT DOES SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE CONFIDENCE IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. REGARDLESS...THE IDEA OF
TROUGHING IN THE EAST IS WELL-AGREED UPON.

THE DETAILS...

LOW PRESSURE PULLS EAST OF THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH
ONLY WEAK RIDGING BUILDING IN IN ITS WAKE. OTHER THAN A FEW
RESIDUAL SHOWERS...EXPECT A DRYING TREND WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOWER 50S.

CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE TO HIGH IN ANOTHER UNSETTLED PERIOD OF
WEATHER FOR THE WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY AS EASTERN TROUGH DEEPENS
FURTHER WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR COASTAL LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT.
DETAILS ON SPECIFICS LIKE QPF ARE CERTAINLY NOT CLEAR AT THIS
TIME...BUT WILL BOOST POPS INTO THE HIGH CHANCE CATEGORY.
UNFORTUNATELY...THIS WILL CONTINUE TO SPELL AT OR BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...PARTICULARLY ON THURSDAY WHEN THE AGREEMENT ON
PRECIPITATION IS HIGHEST.

CONFIDENCE DIMINISHES GREATLY BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
FRIDAY. CERTAINLY AN ABOVE-CLIMO POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS WITH
TROUGHING /AND PERHAPS A CUTOFF LOW/ REMAINING OVERHEAD. WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES A TAD BELOW SEASONAL NORMS GIVEN THE TROUGH LOCATION
AND THE PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM:  VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEAR TERM
FORECAST PERIOD.  A VFR DECK OF STRATOCUMULUS CURRENTLY SOUTH AND
WEST OF THE REGION WILL MAKE A RUN AT BHB THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...BUT SEE NO WORSE THAN SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS NEAR 5KFT.
OTHERWISE CLEAR NORTH...WITH SOME CIRRUS SOUTH THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON SATURDAY.

VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT UNDER INCREASING
HIGH CLOUDS WITH WINDS DIMINISHING TO LESS THAN 5KTS.

SHORT TERM:  VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY WITH
CONDITIONS LIKELY DETERIORATING SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH A
PERIOD OF MVFR /AND POTENTIALLY IFR/ RESTRICTIONS
LIKELY...ESPECIALLY AT BGR/BHB.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/WAVES REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS THROUGH
SATURDAY.

SHORT TERM: THE NEXT THREAT OF SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL COME
ON MONDAY DUE TO STRENGTHENING EASTERLY WINDS AS LOW PRESSURE
PASSES OVER OR JUST SOUTH OF THE WATERS. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...VJN/VJN
MARINE...VJN/VJN
FIRE WEATHER...




000
FXUS61 KCAR 291948
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
348 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH SATURDAY WITH GRADUALLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES.
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL COMBINE WITH LOW PRESSURE PASSING
SOUTH OF THE REGION TO BRING AN UNSETTLED PERIOD OF WEATHER SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH A PERIOD OF RAIN EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY...BUT THE DRIER WEATHER
ASSOCIATED WITH IT WILL LIKELY BE SHORT LIVED AS UNSETTLED WEATHER
RETURNS FOR THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE.

CURRENT PATTERN: DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE
REGION AS OF THIS WRITING WITH VISIBLE/INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
REVEALING LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDINESS SAVE A BATCH OF
CUMULUS ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MAINE BENEATH A BUBBLE HIGH
SITTING OVER THE GULF OF MAINE. HEADING THROUGH THE NEAR TERM
FORECAST PERIOD...SHORTWAVE SEEN IN AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
OVER LOWER MICHIGAN WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST TONIGHT WITH SURFACE RIDGE AXIS REMAINING OVERHEAD
THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY...ENSURING A QUIET PERIOD OF WEATHER.

PRIMARY CONCERNS TONIGHT CENTER AROUND CLOUD TRENDS...AS THE AREA
OF CU/STRATOCU TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST MAY RE-CONGEAL AND MAKE A
RUN TOWARDS BGR/BHB. IN ADDITION...EXPECT SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS
OVER SOUTHERN AREAS DUE TO AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE PASSING SOUTH
OF THE REGION. NOT TERRIBLY EXCITED ABOUT ANYTHING MORE THAN
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...AND WILL WORD THE FORECAST ACCORDINGLY.

LIGHT WINDS AND A VERY DRY AIRMASS WILL AGAIN ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO DROP WELL BELOW SEASONAL NORMS...WITH A FEW UPPER TEENS
NORTH...TO AROUND FREEZING ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL.

AN UNSETTLED PERIOD OF WEATHER LOOKS TO BE IN STORE THROUGH THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD AS EAST COAST TROUGHING BEGINS TO
AMPLIFY.  SHORTWAVE PASSES OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW STRENGTHENING AS IT MOVES FROM SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND COAST MONDAY MORNING TO A LOCATION IN THE OUTER GULF OF
MAINE WATERS BY MONDAY EVENING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL ATTEMPT TO HOLD ON THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY AND
GIVEN THE VERY DRY ANTECEDENT AIRMASS...DO EXPECT THAT WE/LL MAKE IT
THROUGH MUCH IF NOT ALL OF THE DAY DRY WITH INCREASING MID AND UPPER
LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED.

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY THE RECENT STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER WILL
COME TO AND END...AS A SERIES OF UPSTREAM SHORTWAVES PUSH INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN STATES.  INITIAL PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS SUNDAY NIGHT IN
ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING INVERTED TROUGH ACROSS THE REGION.
PWATS ARE NOT TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE /0.5-0.75"/ AND WITH SYNOPTIC
FORCING INITIALLY ALSO NOT STRONG...EXPECT IT WILL TAKE MOST OF
SUNDAY NIGHT TO SATURATE THE COLUMN WITH SHOWERS INCREASING IN
COVERAGE FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT.  CERTAINLY A MUCH WARMER NIGHT
GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION...WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE
MID TO UPPER 30S THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AREA.  AFOREMENTIONED LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES SOUTH OF THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH SOME
DISAGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO IT/S EXACT TRACK AND STRENGTH /ECMWF
STRONGER AND FURTHER NORTH THAN THE GFS/. FEEL THAT THIS IS THE BEST
THREAT OF BONA-FIDE RAINFALL DURING THE PERIOD...PRIMARILY FOR
DOWNEAST AREAS...WITH AT LEAST SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY NORTH OF THIS.

A MORE ECMWF-LIKE SOLUTION WOULD SPELL A SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER QPF
SCENARIO /0.5-0.75"/...AND THE EC DOES HAVE GOOD ENSEMBLE
SUPPORT...SO WILL CONTINUE TO BOOST POPS FOR MONDAY /AND INTO MONDAY
NIGHT/.  IT LOOKS LIKE WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO MAINTAIN AN ALL RAIN
SCENARIO /EXCEPT IN THE MOUNTAINS/...BUT IT WILL BE SOMEWHAT CLOSE
WITH T8S BELOW FREEZING AWAY FROM THE COAST. CERTAINLY A RAW/DAMP
DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL.

PATTERN SUMMARY: EARLY AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE
INFLUENCE OF THE NORTHERN STREAM ACROSS THE REGION WITH
SIGNIFICANTBLOCKING ALONG THE WEST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA IN THE
FORM OF A REX BLOCK CENTERED CLOSE TO THE AXIS OF THE ROCKY
MOUNTAINS...WHICH IS HELPING TO HALT ANY ONSHORE FLOW FROM THE
PACIFIC. THIS CURRENT THEME IS GENERALLY EXPECTED TO HOLD THROUGH
THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD. THERE IS GOOD
DETERMINISTIC/ENSEMBLE FORECAST AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
ANCHORING THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE REX BLOCK WILL FILL AND LIFT
NORTHEAST...WITH LONGWAVE RIDGING SETTING UP ACROSS WESTERN NORTH
AMERICA WITH SUBSEQUENT DOWNSTREAM TROUGHING STRENGTHENING ACROSS
THE EASTERN HALF OF NORTH AMERICA. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE
INFLUENCE OF THE NORTHERN STREAM AND POLAR AIRMASSES THROUGH THE
LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD...GENERALLY SPELLING A PERIOD WITH AT OR
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

MODEL AGREEMENT/CONFIDENCE:   STRONG AGREEMENT ON THE LONGWAVE
PATTERN EXISTS THROUGH ABOUT WEDNESDAY...BEFORE DISAGREEMENT QUICKLY
ENSUES WITH REGARDS TO HOW STRONG THE TROUGH OVER EASTERN NORTH
AMERICA WILL BE AND WHETHER IT WILL CUT OFF FROM THE FLOW ALOFT.
THIS DISPARITY ISN/T THAT SURPRISING IN POTENTIAL CUT OFF LOW
SCENARIOS....BUT DOES SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE CONFIDENCE IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.  REGARDLESS...THE IDEA OF
TROUGHING IN THE EAST IS WELL-AGREED UPON.

THE DETAILS...

LOW PRESSURE PULLS EAST OF THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH
ONLY WEAK RIDGING BUILDING IN IN ITS WAKE. OTHER THAN A FEW
RESIDUAL SHOWERS...EXPECT A DRYING TREND WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOWER 50S.

CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE TO HIGH IN ANOTHER UNSETTLED PERIOD OF
WEATHER FOR THE WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY AS EASTERN TROUGH DEEPENS
FURTHER WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR COASTAL LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT.
DETAILS ON SPECIFICS LIKE QPF ARE CERTAINLY NOT CLEAR AT THIS
TIME...BUT WILL BOOST POPS INTO THE HIGH CHANCE CATEGORY.
UNFORTUNATELY...THIS WILL CONTINUE TO SPELL AT OR BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...PARTICULARLY ON THURSDAY WHEN THE AGREEMENT ON
PRECIPITATION IS HIGHEST.

CONFIDENCE DIMINISHES GREATLY BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
FRIDAY. CERTAINLY AN ABOVE-CLIMO POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS WITH
TROUGHING /AND PERHAPS A CUTOFF LOW/ REMAINING OVERHEAD. WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES A TAD BELOW SEASONAL NORMS GIVEN THE TROUGH LOCATION
AND THE PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM:  VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEAR TERM
FORECAST PERIOD.  A VFR DECK OF STRATOCUMULUS CURRENTLY SOUTH AND
WEST OF THE REGION WILL MAKE A RUN AT BHB THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...BUT SEE NO WORSE THAN SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS NEAR 5KFT.
OTHERWISE CLEAR NORTH...WITH SOME CIRRUS SOUTH THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON SATURDAY.

VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT UNDER INCREASING
HIGH CLOUDS WITH WINDS DIMINISHING TO LESS THAN 5KTS.

SHORT TERM:  VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY WITH
CONDITIONS LIKELY DETERIORATING SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH A
PERIOD OF MVFR /AND POTENTIALLY IFR/ RESTRICTIONS
LIKELY...ESPECIALLY AT BGR/BHB.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/WAVES REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS THROUGH
SATURDAY.

SHORT TERM: THE NEXT THREAT OF SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL COME
ON MONDAY DUE TO STRENGTHENING EASTERLY WINDS AS LOW PRESSURE
PASSES OVER OR JUST SOUTH OF THE WATERS. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...ARNOTT
SHORT TERM...ARNOTT
LONG TERM...ARNOTT
AVIATION...ARNOTT
MARINE...ARNOTT




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