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000
FXUS61 KGYX 311400 AAA
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1000 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL REDEVELOP OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST TODAY AND WILL TRACK NORTHEAST TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST INTO THE MARITIMES SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING. A STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION
SUNDAY NIGHT. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST
ON MONDAY AND WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
HOLD OFF THE EAST COAST ON TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST THRU THIS
EVENING. TWEAKED SKY COVER SLIGHTLY TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST TRENDS
IN SATELLITE. EXPECT THIS STRATOCU TO STICK AROUND MOST OF THE
DAY...BUT GRADUALLY THIN AND BREAK UP BEFORE CLOUDS FROM THE SW
MOVE OVERHEAD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
LIGHT WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES OVERNIGHT FRIDAY. THE MOUNTAINS
AND FOOTHILLS SHOULD STILL DROP INTO THE LOWER 30S EARLY ON...
WITH MID TO UPPER 30S OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN AND LOWER 40S ALONG
THE COAST. LIGHT SNOW WILL BEGIN TO FALL IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS
TOP DOWN SATURATION OCCURS AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN WILL SPREAD ONTO
THE NH AND MAINE COASTS BY SATURDAY MORNING AS THE INFLUENCE FROM
THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERS MOVING UP THE EAST
COAST IS FELT. THE SECOND...MORE DYNAMIC LOW WILL PHASE WITH THE
FIRST LOW SOMETIME SUNDAY AND BRING MEASURABLE SNOW TO MUCH OF
EASTERN MAINE. MEASURABLE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FOR SATURDAY THROUGH 6
PM WILL RESIDE IN THE MOUNTAINS AND GENERALLY BE LESS THAN A
COUPLE INCHES. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 40S AREAWIDE. WINDS
WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP AS A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPS OVER
THE AREA. WE SHOULD HAVE SOME GUSTS TO 25 MPH OR SO BY SATURDAY
NIGHT. A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED...ESPECIALLY FOR THE COAST
AND PERHAPS THE CAPITAL DISTRICT AS THE SYSTEM RAPIDLY DEEPENS
JUST OFFSHORE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
SATURDAY NIGHT. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS WILL COOL OVERNIGHT AS
COLDER AIR IS DRAWN INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST.
APPEARS RAIN WILL GRADUALLY MIX WITH AND CHANGE TO WET SNOW IN
NORTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES AND THIS TREND WILL WORK ITS WAY SOUTH
TO THE COAST BY SUNDAY MORNING. THICKNESSES SUGGEST MORE OF A MIX
IN MIDCOAST AND INTERIOR CENTRAL MAINE. BIG DIFFERENCES IN MODEL
QPF AT THIS POINT SO SNOWFALL AMOUNTS STILL A BIG QUESTION BUT THE
POTENTIAL WILL BE THERE FOR SEVERAL INCHES OF WET SNOW IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS OF MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE.

SNOW AND MIXED PRECIP WILL LAST INTO SUNDAY AS INTENSE LOW PRESSURE
SHIFTS INTO THE MARITIMES. EXPECT MIXED PRECIP IN SOUTHERN ZONES
TO GRADUALLY GO OVER TO SNOW AS COLDER AIR FLOODS IN BEHIND
DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE. COULD SEE SEVERAL ADDITIONAL INCHES OF WET
SNOW IN NORTHERN ZONES BEFORE PRECIP TAPERS OFF LATE IN THE DAY.

STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL IN THE WAKE OF THE STORM SUNDAY
NIGHT. EXPECT GRADUAL CLEARING DOWNWIND OF THE MOUNTAINS
OVERNIGHT. DESPITE THE WINDS WILL SEE SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR OF
THE SEASON WITH TEMPS DIPPING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S NORTH AND
MID TO UPPER 20S SOUTH.

RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON MONDAY.
EXPECT STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS TO PERSIST FOR MUCH OF
THE DAY BEFORE DROPPING OFF IN THE EVENING. HIGH WILL RANGE FROM
THE MID TO UPPER 30S NORTH AND LOWER TO MID 40S SOUTH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT AND RETURN FLOW WILL
BEGIN TO BRING WARMER AIR BACK INTO THE REGION. WEAK OVER-RUNNING
SETTING UP TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE REGION WILL BRING
INCREASING CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF A SPRINKLE OR FLURRY TO NORTHERN
ZONES TOWARD DAYBREAK.

WARMER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY.
VARIABLE CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL IN THE SOUTH WITH A LITTLE MORE IN
THE WAY OF CLOUDINESS IN THE NORTH ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS.

COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING
INCREASING CLOUDS AND INCREASING POPS IN NORTHWEST ZONES AFTER
MIDNIGHT. COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY PUSH THROUGH THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY WITH A ROUND OF SHOWERS FOR MOST AREAS. THE FRONT WILL
STALL TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AN APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE WILL SPIN UP LOW PRESSURE ON THIS BOUNDARY OVERNIGHT
SETTING THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN AND OR MIXED PRECIP ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE REGION. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING
VFR CEILINGS.

LONG TERM...IFR/LIFR CEILINGS AND VSBY SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY...IMPROVING TO VFR SUNDAY NIGHT. VFR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE THEY BEGIN TO INCREASE. HAVE ISSUED A
GALE WATCH FOR EARLY SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY MONDAY AS
SEAS INCREASE TO 8-12 FT.

LONG TERM...HAVE INCREASED SEAS SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE OUTER
WATERS BASED ON CURRENT FORECAST. WITH WINDS APPROACHING STORM
FORCE...SEAS WILL BUILD TO NEAR 20 FT.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LEGRO



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000
FXUS61 KCAR 311346
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
946 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
FAIR AND SEASONAL WEATHER IS EXPECTED INTO TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES INTO THE REGION. A COASTAL STORM WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE
REGION BY LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
930 AM UPDATE...ONLY ADJUSTMENT NEEDED WAS TO EXTEND THE CLOUD
COVER FURTHER S PER THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING MORE
CLOUDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AREAS. THE NAM12 AND RAP WERE BOTH DOING
WELL WITH THE CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING AND WILL FOLLOW THIS TREND
INTO THE AFTERNOON.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE MID 40S IN THE NORTH TO THE LOWER 50S SOUTH.

FOR TONIGHT...THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO GIVE WAY TO THE FIRST WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST. THIS TRANSITION WILL
BE SLOW, THOUGH, SO EXPECT ANY PRECIPITATION TO HOLD OFF UNTIL WELL
AFTER MIDNIGHT. AND EVEN THEN, ONLY FAR DOWNEAST REALLY HAS MUCH OF
A CHANCE OF SEEING PRECIPITATION BEFORE DAYBREAK. TONIGHT`S
TEMPERATURES ARE A BIT TRICKY, AS IT LOOKS LIKE MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE
IS GOING TOO COLD. DEWPOINTS WILL BE COLD, BUT WITH INCREASING CLOUD
COVER AND NORTHEAST WIND, RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE GREATLY
INHIBITED. THEREFORE, RAISED OVERNIGHT LOWS ONE CATEGORY FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST, WHICH WOULD GIVE NORTHERN AREAS LOWS IN THE LOWER
30S AND THE MID/UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S DOWNEAST. THEREFORE, EXPECT
MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION TO FALL AS RAIN, WITH PERHAPS A LITTLE
SNOW FOR INTERIOR DOWNEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS CONT TO SHOW RUN TO RUN AND MODEL TO MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH
THE LOW PRES COMPLEX XPCTD TO EVOLVE JUST OFF THE SE COAST BY SAT
AND THEN MOVE TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA BY LATE SUN. FOR THE PURPOSE OF
THIS UPDATE...WE DID NOT USE MUCH OF THE 00Z DTMNSTC GFS ATTM...
WHICH APPEARED TO BE TO FAR NW WITH THE STORM TRACK...TO LOW
FOR THE CNTRL LOW PRES AND SUBSEQUENTLY BEING TO HVY WITH LIQ
EQUIV QPF. WE LEANED MORE WITH 00Z WPC...ECMWF...AND NAM GUIDANCE
FOR 6 HRLY QPF AND DERIVED SNFLS FOR THIS PTN OF THE FCST. LOW
CONFIDENCE CAN BE THE MAIN STATEMENT WITH THIS EVENT...WITH THE
POTENTIAL OF SHARP CUT-OFFS OF QPF/SNFL SPCLY ON SUN SOMEWHERE
OVR THE FA...MOST LIKELY OVR THE ERN PTN OF THE REGION. WE ARE
MORE CONFIDENT OF GETTING SOME QPF WITH THE FIRST SURGE OF
MOISTURE WITH OVRRNG LATE SAT INTO ERLY SUN MORN WITH A LEAD...
WEAKER S/WV AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER LOW. ITS THE THE PLACEMENT OF
THE NEXT BATCH OF QPF WITH THE MAIN SFC/UPPER LOW THAT COULD
AFFECT OUR FA...SPCLY THE SE... LATER SUN INTO SUN EVE THAT IS IN
QUESTION...AND FOR NOW WE SHOW MORE OF A GRAZING OF QPF THESE
PDS...BUT THIS IS THE MOST UNCERTAIN ASPECT OF THE FCST...WITH
EVEN A LITTLE DIFFERENCE E OR W GREATLY AFFECTING THE POTENTIAL
OF ADDITIONAL SNFL ACROSS THE REGION.

WE BEGIN WITH LOW SN RATIOS SAT EVE WHEN THE FIRST BATCH OF PRECIP
ARRIVES...SINCE LLVL ADVCN AND DYNAMIC COOLING FROM ALF WILL BE
NEEDED FOR THE CHGOVR OF RN TO SN...WHICH WILL HAPPEN FIRST ACROSS
THE N AND CNTRL...AND BY LATE SAT NGT OVR DOWNEAST AREAS. WE DO
BRING SN RATIOS CLOSER TO 10:1 N OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST LATE SAT
NGT INTO SUN MORN. AFTWRDS...SN RATIOS WILL DEPEND LATER ON SUN
WHETHER STEADY PRECIP IS STILL OCCURRING OVR THE FA...BUT FOR NOW
WE SHOW LOW SN RATIOS FOR THE LATE MORN THRU AFTN...SPCLY OVR SE
ME. THE UPSHOT OF THIS UNCERTAINTY IS THAT WE WILL HOLD OFF ON
ANY WATCHES FOR NOW TO ALLOW THE DAY SHIFT AT LEAST ONE MORE MODEL
RUN BEFORE COMMITTING TO ANY WATCHES. ONE ADDITIONAL ELEMENT WITH
THIS EVENT WILL BE WIND...SPCLY ON SUN...WHICH COULD COMBINE WITH
WET SNFL ON TREES TO CAUSE DOWNED BRANCHES AND SPORADIC POWER
OUTAGES BY SUN NGT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ANY STEADY SN FROM SUN SHOULD WIND DOWN TO SN SHWRS WITH LITTLE
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION SUN NGT...WITH SN SHWRS LINGERING LONGEST
ACROSS THE N EVEN INTO MON MORN ACCOMPANIED BY BRISK NW WINDS.
WINDS SHOULD SLOWLY SLACKEN MON NGT INTO TUE...WITH AT LEAST PRTL
CLRG. CLDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN LATE TUE WITH THE THE NEXT CHC OF
RN SHWRS BEING LATER TUE NGT INTO THU WITH A SERIES OF S/WV FROM
THE GREAT LKS ACCOMPANIED BY MID AND LLVL WARM ADVCN.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD. CEILINGS MAY DROP TO MVFR VERY LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE EAST COAST.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: CLGS AND VSBYS WILL LOWER TO MVFR IN RN
DOWNEAST AND RN/SN MIXED NRN TAF SITES...THEN LOWERING TO IFR
AND LIFR IN MSLY SN BY LATE SAT NGT...CONTG INTO SUN BEFORE
IMPROVING TO MVFR SUN NGT AND THEN TO VFR DOWNEAST SITES MON
AND TUE WHILE NRN TAF SITE REMAIN MSLY MVFR IN BKN-OVC SC.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS QUIET ON THE
WATERS THROUGH THIS EVENING. HOWEVER, WINDS AND WAVES WILL
INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE EAST
COAST. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BE REACHED AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: WE WILL ISSUE A GALE WATCH FOR ALL OF OUR
WATERS FOR THE 12Z SAT TO 12Z MON PD ASSOCIATED WITH THE APCH
AND PASSAGE OF THE COASTAL LOW FROM THE MID ATLC STATES S OF
THE WATERS TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA. AFTWRDS...A PD OF SCA WINDS AND
SEAS...SPCLY FOR THE OUTER MZ WATERS WILL BE NEEDED LATER ON MON
BEFORE WINDS AND SEA SUBSIDE BLO SCA CRITERIA SUN NGT...REMAINING
SO AT LEAST INTO TUE. WENT CLOSE TO WW3 WV GUIDANCE FOR WV HTS FOR
THIS PTN OF THE FA.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HASTINGS/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...HASTINGS/HEWITT/VJN
MARINE...HASTINGS/HEWITT/VJN




000
FXUS61 KCAR 311346
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
946 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
FAIR AND SEASONAL WEATHER IS EXPECTED INTO TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES INTO THE REGION. A COASTAL STORM WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE
REGION BY LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
930 AM UPDATE...ONLY ADJUSTMENT NEEDED WAS TO EXTEND THE CLOUD
COVER FURTHER S PER THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING MORE
CLOUDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AREAS. THE NAM12 AND RAP WERE BOTH DOING
WELL WITH THE CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING AND WILL FOLLOW THIS TREND
INTO THE AFTERNOON.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE MID 40S IN THE NORTH TO THE LOWER 50S SOUTH.

FOR TONIGHT...THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO GIVE WAY TO THE FIRST WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST. THIS TRANSITION WILL
BE SLOW, THOUGH, SO EXPECT ANY PRECIPITATION TO HOLD OFF UNTIL WELL
AFTER MIDNIGHT. AND EVEN THEN, ONLY FAR DOWNEAST REALLY HAS MUCH OF
A CHANCE OF SEEING PRECIPITATION BEFORE DAYBREAK. TONIGHT`S
TEMPERATURES ARE A BIT TRICKY, AS IT LOOKS LIKE MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE
IS GOING TOO COLD. DEWPOINTS WILL BE COLD, BUT WITH INCREASING CLOUD
COVER AND NORTHEAST WIND, RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE GREATLY
INHIBITED. THEREFORE, RAISED OVERNIGHT LOWS ONE CATEGORY FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST, WHICH WOULD GIVE NORTHERN AREAS LOWS IN THE LOWER
30S AND THE MID/UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S DOWNEAST. THEREFORE, EXPECT
MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION TO FALL AS RAIN, WITH PERHAPS A LITTLE
SNOW FOR INTERIOR DOWNEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS CONT TO SHOW RUN TO RUN AND MODEL TO MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH
THE LOW PRES COMPLEX XPCTD TO EVOLVE JUST OFF THE SE COAST BY SAT
AND THEN MOVE TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA BY LATE SUN. FOR THE PURPOSE OF
THIS UPDATE...WE DID NOT USE MUCH OF THE 00Z DTMNSTC GFS ATTM...
WHICH APPEARED TO BE TO FAR NW WITH THE STORM TRACK...TO LOW
FOR THE CNTRL LOW PRES AND SUBSEQUENTLY BEING TO HVY WITH LIQ
EQUIV QPF. WE LEANED MORE WITH 00Z WPC...ECMWF...AND NAM GUIDANCE
FOR 6 HRLY QPF AND DERIVED SNFLS FOR THIS PTN OF THE FCST. LOW
CONFIDENCE CAN BE THE MAIN STATEMENT WITH THIS EVENT...WITH THE
POTENTIAL OF SHARP CUT-OFFS OF QPF/SNFL SPCLY ON SUN SOMEWHERE
OVR THE FA...MOST LIKELY OVR THE ERN PTN OF THE REGION. WE ARE
MORE CONFIDENT OF GETTING SOME QPF WITH THE FIRST SURGE OF
MOISTURE WITH OVRRNG LATE SAT INTO ERLY SUN MORN WITH A LEAD...
WEAKER S/WV AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER LOW. ITS THE THE PLACEMENT OF
THE NEXT BATCH OF QPF WITH THE MAIN SFC/UPPER LOW THAT COULD
AFFECT OUR FA...SPCLY THE SE... LATER SUN INTO SUN EVE THAT IS IN
QUESTION...AND FOR NOW WE SHOW MORE OF A GRAZING OF QPF THESE
PDS...BUT THIS IS THE MOST UNCERTAIN ASPECT OF THE FCST...WITH
EVEN A LITTLE DIFFERENCE E OR W GREATLY AFFECTING THE POTENTIAL
OF ADDITIONAL SNFL ACROSS THE REGION.

WE BEGIN WITH LOW SN RATIOS SAT EVE WHEN THE FIRST BATCH OF PRECIP
ARRIVES...SINCE LLVL ADVCN AND DYNAMIC COOLING FROM ALF WILL BE
NEEDED FOR THE CHGOVR OF RN TO SN...WHICH WILL HAPPEN FIRST ACROSS
THE N AND CNTRL...AND BY LATE SAT NGT OVR DOWNEAST AREAS. WE DO
BRING SN RATIOS CLOSER TO 10:1 N OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST LATE SAT
NGT INTO SUN MORN. AFTWRDS...SN RATIOS WILL DEPEND LATER ON SUN
WHETHER STEADY PRECIP IS STILL OCCURRING OVR THE FA...BUT FOR NOW
WE SHOW LOW SN RATIOS FOR THE LATE MORN THRU AFTN...SPCLY OVR SE
ME. THE UPSHOT OF THIS UNCERTAINTY IS THAT WE WILL HOLD OFF ON
ANY WATCHES FOR NOW TO ALLOW THE DAY SHIFT AT LEAST ONE MORE MODEL
RUN BEFORE COMMITTING TO ANY WATCHES. ONE ADDITIONAL ELEMENT WITH
THIS EVENT WILL BE WIND...SPCLY ON SUN...WHICH COULD COMBINE WITH
WET SNFL ON TREES TO CAUSE DOWNED BRANCHES AND SPORADIC POWER
OUTAGES BY SUN NGT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ANY STEADY SN FROM SUN SHOULD WIND DOWN TO SN SHWRS WITH LITTLE
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION SUN NGT...WITH SN SHWRS LINGERING LONGEST
ACROSS THE N EVEN INTO MON MORN ACCOMPANIED BY BRISK NW WINDS.
WINDS SHOULD SLOWLY SLACKEN MON NGT INTO TUE...WITH AT LEAST PRTL
CLRG. CLDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN LATE TUE WITH THE THE NEXT CHC OF
RN SHWRS BEING LATER TUE NGT INTO THU WITH A SERIES OF S/WV FROM
THE GREAT LKS ACCOMPANIED BY MID AND LLVL WARM ADVCN.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD. CEILINGS MAY DROP TO MVFR VERY LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE EAST COAST.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: CLGS AND VSBYS WILL LOWER TO MVFR IN RN
DOWNEAST AND RN/SN MIXED NRN TAF SITES...THEN LOWERING TO IFR
AND LIFR IN MSLY SN BY LATE SAT NGT...CONTG INTO SUN BEFORE
IMPROVING TO MVFR SUN NGT AND THEN TO VFR DOWNEAST SITES MON
AND TUE WHILE NRN TAF SITE REMAIN MSLY MVFR IN BKN-OVC SC.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS QUIET ON THE
WATERS THROUGH THIS EVENING. HOWEVER, WINDS AND WAVES WILL
INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE EAST
COAST. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BE REACHED AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: WE WILL ISSUE A GALE WATCH FOR ALL OF OUR
WATERS FOR THE 12Z SAT TO 12Z MON PD ASSOCIATED WITH THE APCH
AND PASSAGE OF THE COASTAL LOW FROM THE MID ATLC STATES S OF
THE WATERS TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA. AFTWRDS...A PD OF SCA WINDS AND
SEAS...SPCLY FOR THE OUTER MZ WATERS WILL BE NEEDED LATER ON MON
BEFORE WINDS AND SEA SUBSIDE BLO SCA CRITERIA SUN NGT...REMAINING
SO AT LEAST INTO TUE. WENT CLOSE TO WW3 WV GUIDANCE FOR WV HTS FOR
THIS PTN OF THE FA.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HASTINGS/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...HASTINGS/HEWITT/VJN
MARINE...HASTINGS/HEWITT/VJN




000
FXUS61 KGYX 311109 AAA
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
709 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL REDEVELOP OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST TODAY AND WILL TRACK NORTHEAST TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST INTO THE MARITIMES SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING. A STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION
SUNDAY NIGHT. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST
ON MONDAY AND WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
HOLD OFF THE EAST COAST ON TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
.UPDATE...
ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS FOR CLOUD COVER AND TEMPERATURES THIS
MORNING. CLOUD COVER HAS HUNG IN OVERNIGHT AS ADVERTISED BY MODEL
925-850MB RH AND WILL LIKELY BE HERE FOR THE DAY. LOCATIONS OVER
CENTRAL MAINE THAT WERE NOT UNDER CLOUD COVER DROPPED DOWN INTO
THE UPPER 20S THIS MORNING.

&&

HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE AREA TODAY EVEN AS COASTAL LOW PRESSURE
ORGANIZES NEAR THE CAROLINAS. WE WILL SEE INCREASING CLOUDS BUT
ANY RAIN WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE TONIGHT. WARM AIR ADVECTION
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM WILL HELP BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 40S NORTH TO LOWER TO MID 50S SOUTH DESPITE A
CHILLY START.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
LIGHT WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES OVERNIGHT FRIDAY. THE MOUNTAINS
AND FOOTHILLS SHOULD STILL DROP INTO THE LOWER 30S EARLY ON...
WITH MID TO UPPER 30S OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN AND LOWER 40S ALONG
THE COAST. LIGHT SNOW WILL BEGIN TO FALL IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS
TOP DOWN SATURATION OCCURS AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN WILL SPREAD ONTO
THE NH AND MAINE COASTS BY SATURDAY MORNING AS THE INFLUENCE FROM
THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERS MOVING UP THE EAST
COAST IS FELT. THE SECOND...MORE DYNAMIC LOW WILL PHASE WITH THE
FIRST LOW SOMETIME SUNDAY AND BRING MEASURABLE SNOW TO MUCH OF
EASTERN MAINE. MEASURABLE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FOR SATURDAY THROUGH 6
PM WILL RESIDE IN THE MOUNTAINS AND GENERALLY BE LESS THAN A
COUPLE INCHES. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 40S AREAWIDE. WINDS
WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP AS A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPS OVER
THE AREA. WE SHOULD HAVE SOME GUSTS TO 25 MPH OR SO BY SATURDAY
NIGHT. A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED...ESPECIALLY FOR THE COAST
AND PERHAPS THE CAPITAL DISTRICT AS THE SYSTEM RAPIDLY DEEPENS
JUST OFFSHORE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
SATURDAY NIGHT. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS WILL COOL OVERNIGHT AS
COLDER AIR IS DRAWN INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST.
APPEARS RAIN WILL GRADUALLY MIX WITH AND CHANGE TO WET SNOW IN
NORTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES AND THIS TREND WILL WORK ITS WAY SOUTH
TO THE COAST BY SUNDAY MORNING. THICKNESSES SUGGEST MORE OF A MIX
IN MIDCOAST AND INTERIOR CENTRAL MAINE. BIG DIFFERENCES IN MODEL
QPF AT THIS POINT SO SNOWFALL AMOUNTS STILL A BIG QUESTION BUT THE
POTENTIAL WILL BE THERE FOR SEVERAL INCHES OF WET SNOW IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS OF MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE.

SNOW AND MIXED PRECIP WILL LAST INTO SUNDAY AS INTENSE LOW PRESSURE
SHIFTS INTO THE MARITIMES. EXPECT MIXED PRECIP IN SOUTHERN ZONES
TO GRADUALLY GO OVER TO SNOW AS COLDER AIR FLOODS IN BEHIND
DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE. COULD SEE SEVERAL ADDITIONAL INCHES OF WET
SNOW IN NORTHERN ZONES BEFORE PRECIP TAPERS OFF LATE IN THE DAY.

STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL IN THE WAKE OF THE STORM SUNDAY
NIGHT. EXPECT GRADUAL CLEARING DOWNWIND OF THE MOUNTAINS
OVERNIGHT. DESPITE THE WINDS WILL SEE SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR OF
THE SEASON WITH TEMPS DIPPING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S NORTH AND
MID TO UPPER 20S SOUTH.

RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON MONDAY.
EXPECT STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS TO PERSIST FOR MUCH OF
THE DAY BEFORE DROPPING OFF IN THE EVENING. HIGH WILL RANGE FROM
THE MID TO UPPER 30S NORTH AND LOWER TO MID 40S SOUTH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT AND RETURN FLOW WILL
BEGIN TO BRING WARMER AIR BACK INTO THE REGION. WEAK OVER-RUNNING
SETTING UP TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE REGION WILL BRING
INCREASING CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF A SPRINKLE OR FLURRY TO NORTHERN
ZONES TOWARD DAYBREAK.

WARMER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY.
VARIABLE CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL IN THE SOUTH WITH A LITTLE MORE IN
THE WAY OF CLOUDINESS IN THE NORTH ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS.

COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING
INCREASING CLOUDS AND INCREASING POPS IN NORTHWEST ZONES AFTER
MIDNIGHT. COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY PUSH THROUGH THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY WITH A ROUND OF SHOWERS FOR MOST AREAS. THE FRONT WILL
STALL TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AN APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE WILL SPIN UP LOW PRESSURE ON THIS BOUNDARY OVERNIGHT
SETTING THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN AND OR MIXED PRECIP ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE REGION. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING
VFR CEILINGS.

LONG TERM...IFR/LIFR CEILINGS AND VSBY SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY...IMPROVING TO VFR SUNDAY NIGHT. VFR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE THEY BEGIN TO INCREASE. HAVE ISSUED A
GALE WATCH FOR EARLY SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY MONDAY AS
SEAS INCREASE TO 8-12 FT.

LONG TERM...GALES LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
WINDS WILL SKIRT STORM FORCE SUNDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

HANES/SINSABAUGH




000
FXUS61 KCAR 311018
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
618 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
FAIR AND SEASONAL WEATHER IS EXPECTED INTO TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES INTO THE REGION. A COASTAL STORM WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE
REGION BY LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
615 AM UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED THIS MORNING. MADE
SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER TO MATCH CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS.
OTHERWISE THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...ANOTHER QUIET DAY TODAY AS THE REGION
REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE. THE NORTH WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH THE DAY WHILE SOUTHERN REGIONS WILL
SEE SOME SUNSHINE. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT A FAIR AMOUNT OF THE
GUIDANCE SPITS OUT A BIT OF QPF ACROSS THE NORTH, BUT FEEL THIS IS
OVERDONE DUE TO THE DRY LAYER AT LOW LEVELS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 40S IN THE NORTH TO THE LOWER 50S
SOUTH.

FOR TONIGHT...THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO GIVE WAY TO THE FIRST WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST. THIS TRANSITION WILL
BE SLOW, THOUGH, SO EXPECT ANY PRECIPITATION TO HOLD OFF UNTIL WELL
AFTER MIDNIGHT. AND EVEN THEN, ONLY FAR DOWNEAST REALLY HAS MUCH OF
A CHANCE OF SEEING PRECIPITATION BEFORE DAYBREAK. TONIGHT`S
TEMPERATURES ARE A BIT TRICKY, AS IT LOOKS LIKE MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE
IS GOING TOO COLD. DEWPOINTS WILL BE COLD, BUT WITH INCREASING CLOUD
COVER AND NORTHEAST WIND, RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE GREATLY
INHIBITED. THEREFORE, RAISED OVERNIGHT LOWS ONE CATEGORY FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST, WHICH WOULD GIVE NORTHERN AREAS LOWS IN THE LOWER
30S AND THE MID/UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S DOWNEAST. THEREFORE, EXPECT
MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION TO FALL AS RAIN, WITH PERHAPS A LITTLE
SNOW FOR INTERIOR DOWNEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS CONT TO SHOW RUN TO RUN AND MODEL TO MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH
THE LOW PRES COMPLEX XPCTD TO EVOLVE JUST OFF THE SE COAST BY SAT
AND THEN MOVE TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA BY LATE SUN. FOR THE PURPOSE OF
THIS UPDATE...WE DID NOT USE MUCH OF THE 00Z DTMNSTC GFS ATTM...
WHICH APPEARED TO BE TO FAR NW WITH THE STORM TRACK...TO LOW
FOR THE CNTRL LOW PRES AND SUBSEQUENTLY BEING TO HVY WITH LIQ
EQUIV QPF. WE LEANED MORE WITH 00Z WPC...ECMWF...AND NAM GUIDANCE
FOR 6 HRLY QPF AND DERIVED SNFLS FOR THIS PTN OF THE FCST. LOW
CONFIDENCE CAN BE THE MAIN STATEMENT WITH THIS EVENT...WITH THE
POTENTIAL OF SHARP CUT-OFFS OF QPF/SNFL SPCLY ON SUN SOMEWHERE
OVR THE FA...MOST LIKELY OVR THE ERN PTN OF THE REGION. WE ARE
MORE CONFIDENT OF GETTING SOME QPF WITH THE FIRST SURGE OF
MOISTURE WITH OVRRNG LATE SAT INTO ERLY SUN MORN WITH A LEAD...
WEAKER S/WV AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER LOW. ITS THE THE PLACEMENT OF
THE NEXT BATCH OF QPF WITH THE MAIN SFC/UPPER LOW THAT COULD
AFFECT OUR FA...SPCLY THE SE... LATER SUN INTO SUN EVE THAT IS IN
QUESTION...AND FOR NOW WE SHOW MORE OF A GRAZING OF QPF THESE
PDS...BUT THIS IS THE MOST UNCERTAIN ASPECT OF THE FCST...WITH
EVEN A LITTLE DIFFERENCE E OR W GREATLY AFFECTING THE POTENTIAL
OF ADDITIONAL SNFL ACROSS THE REGION.

WE BEGIN WITH LOW SN RATIOS SAT EVE WHEN THE FIRST BATCH OF PRECIP
ARRIVES...SINCE LLVL ADVCN AND DYNAMIC COOLING FROM ALF WILL BE
NEEDED FOR THE CHGOVR OF RN TO SN...WHICH WILL HAPPEN FIRST ACROSS
THE N AND CNTRL...AND BY LATE SAT NGT OVR DOWNEAST AREAS. WE DO
BRING SN RATIOS CLOSER TO 10:1 N OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST LATE SAT
NGT INTO SUN MORN. AFTWRDS...SN RATIOS WILL DEPEND LATER ON SUN
WHETHER STEADY PRECIP IS STILL OCCURRING OVR THE FA...BUT FOR NOW
WE SHOW LOW SN RATIOS FOR THE LATE MORN THRU AFTN...SPCLY OVR SE
ME. THE UPSHOT OF THIS UNCERTAINTY IS THAT WE WILL HOLD OFF ON
ANY WATCHES FOR NOW TO ALLOW THE DAY SHIFT AT LEAST ONE MORE MODEL
RUN BEFORE COMMITTING TO ANY WATCHES. ONE ADDITIONAL ELEMENT WITH
THIS EVENT WILL BE WIND...SPCLY ON SUN...WHICH COULD COMBINE WITH
WET SNFL ON TREES TO CAUSE DOWNED BRANCHES AND SPORADIC POWER
OUTAGES BY SUN NGT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ANY STEADY SN FROM SUN SHOULD WIND DOWN TO SN SHWRS WITH LITTLE
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION SUN NGT...WITH SN SHWRS LINGERING LONGEST
ACROSS THE N EVEN INTO MON MORN ACCOMPANIED BY BRISK NW WINDS.
WINDS SHOULD SLOWLY SLACKEN MON NGT INTO TUE...WITH AT LEAST PRTL
CLRG. CLDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN LATE TUE WITH THE THE NEXT CHC OF
RN SHWRS BEING LATER TUE NGT INTO THU WITH A SERIES OF S/WV FROM
THE GREAT LKS ACCOMPANIED BY MID AND LLVL WARM ADVCN.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD. CEILINGS MAY DROP TO MVFR VERY LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE EAST COAST.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: CLGS AND VSBYS WILL LOWER TO MVFR IN RN
DOWNEAST AND RN/SN MIXED NRN TAF SITES...THEN LOWERING TO IFR
AND LIFR IN MSLY SN BY LATE SAT NGT...CONTG INTO SUN BEFORE
IMPROVING TO MVFR SUN NGT AND THEN TO VFR DOWNEAST SITES MON
AND TUE WHILE NRN TAF SITE REMAIN MSLY MVFR IN BKN-OVC SC.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS QUIET ON THE
WATERS THROUGH THIS EVENING. HOWEVER, WINDS AND WAVES WILL
INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE EAST
COAST. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BE REACHED AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: WE WILL ISSUE A GALE WATCH FOR ALL OF OUR
WATERS FOR THE 12Z SAT TO 12Z MON PD ASSOCIATED WITH THE APCH
AND PASSAGE OF THE COASTAL LOW FROM THE MID ATLC STATES S OF
THE WATERS TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA. AFTWRDS...A PD OF SCA WINDS AND
SEAS...SPCLY FOR THE OUTER MZ WATERS WILL BE NEEDED LATER ON MON
BEFORE WINDS AND SEA SUBSIDE BLO SCA CRITERIA SUN NGT...REMAINING
SO AT LEAST INTO TUE. WENT CLOSE TO WW3 WV GUIDANCE FOR WV HTS FOR
THIS PTN OF THE FA.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HASTINGS
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...HASTINGS/VJN
MARINE...HASTINGS/VJN




000
FXUS61 KCAR 310846
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
446 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
FAIR AND SEASONAL WEATHER IS EXPECTED INTO TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES INTO THE REGION. A COASTAL STORM WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE
REGION BY LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ANOTHER QUIET DAY TODAY AS THE REGION REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE. THE NORTH WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH
THE DAY WHILE SOUTHERN REGIONS WILL SEE SOME SUNSHINE. IT SHOULD
BE NOTED THAT A FAIR AMOUNT OF THE GUIDANCE SPITS OUT A BIT OF QPF
ACROSS THE NORTH, BUT FEEL THIS IS OVERDONE DUE TO THE DRY LAYER
AT LOW LEVELS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID
40S IN THE NORTH TO THE LOWER 50S SOUTH.

FOR TONIGHT...THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO GIVE WAY TO THE FIRST WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST. THIS TRANSITION WILL
BE SLOW, THOUGH, SO EXPECT ANY PRECIPITATION TO HOLD OFF UNTIL WELL
AFTER MIDNIGHT. AND EVEN THEN, ONLY FAR DOWNEAST REALLY HAS MUCH OF
A CHANCE OF SEEING PRECIPITATION BEFORE DAYBREAK. TONIGHT`S
TEMPERATURES ARE A BIT TRICKY, AS IT LOOKS LIKE MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE
IS GOING TOO COLD. DEWPOINTS WILL BE COLD, BUT WITH INCREASING CLOUD
COVER AND NORTHEAST WIND, RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE GREATLY
INHIBITED. THEREFORE, RAISED OVERNIGHT LOWS ONE CATEGORY FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST, WHICH WOULD GIVE NORTHERN AREAS LOWS IN THE LOWER
30S AND THE MID/UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S DOWNEAST. THEREFORE, EXPECT
MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION TO FALL AS RAIN, WITH PERHAPS A LITTLE
SNOW FOR INTERIOR DOWNEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS CONT TO SHOW RUN TO RUN AND MODEL TO MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH
THE LOW PRES COMPLEX XPCTD TO EVOLVE JUST OFF THE SE COAST BY SAT
AND THEN MOVE TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA BY LATE SUN. FOR THE PURPOSE OF
THIS UPDATE...WE DID NOT USE MUCH OF THE 00Z DTMNSTC GFS ATTM...
WHICH APPEARED TO BE TO FAR NW WITH THE STORM TRACK...TO LOW
FOR THE CNTRL LOW PRES AND SUBSEQUENTLY BEING TO HVY WITH LIQ
EQUIV QPF. WE LEANED MORE WITH 00Z WPC...ECMWF...AND NAM GUIDANCE
FOR 6 HRLY QPF AND DERIVED SNFLS FOR THIS PTN OF THE FCST. LOW
CONFIDENCE CAN BE THE MAIN STATEMENT WITH THIS EVENT...WITH THE
POTENTIAL OF SHARP CUT-OFFS OF QPF/SNFL SPCLY ON SUN SOMEWHERE
OVR THE FA...MOST LIKELY OVR THE ERN PTN OF THE REGION. WE ARE
MORE CONFIDENT OF GETTING SOME QPF WITH THE FIRST SURGE OF
MOISTURE WITH OVRRNG LATE SAT INTO ERLY SUN MORN WITH A LEAD...
WEAKER S/WV AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER LOW. ITS THE THE PLACEMENT OF
THE NEXT BATCH OF QPF WITH THE MAIN SFC/UPPER LOW THAT COULD
AFFECT OUR FA...SPCLY THE SE... LATER SUN INTO SUN EVE THAT IS IN
QUESTION...AND FOR NOW WE SHOW MORE OF A GRAZING OF QPF THESE
PDS...BUT THIS IS THE MOST UNCERTAIN ASPECT OF THE FCST...WITH
EVEN A LITTLE DIFFERENCE E OR W GREATLY AFFECTING THE POTENTIAL
OF ADDITIONAL SNFL ACROSS THE REGION.

WE BEGIN WITH LOW SN RATIOS SAT EVE WHEN THE FIRST BATCH OF PRECIP
ARRIVES...SINCE LLVL ADVCN AND DYNAMIC COOLING FROM ALF WILL BE
NEEDED FOR THE CHGOVR OF RN TO SN...WHICH WILL HAPPEN FIRST ACROSS
THE N AND CNTRL...AND BY LATE SAT NGT OVR DOWNEAST AREAS. WE DO
BRING SN RATIOS CLOSER TO 10:1 N OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST LATE SAT
NGT INTO SUN MORN. AFTWRDS...SN RATIOS WILL DEPEND LATER ON SUN
WHETHER STEADY PRECIP IS STILL OCCURRING OVR THE FA...BUT FOR NOW
WE SHOW LOW SN RATIOS FOR THE LATE MORN THRU AFTN...SPCLY OVR SE
ME. THE UPSHOT OF THIS UNCERTAINTY IS THAT WE WILL HOLD OFF ON
ANY WATCHES FOR NOW TO ALLOW THE DAY SHIFT AT LEAST ONE MORE MODEL
RUN BEFORE COMMITTING TO ANY WATCHES. ONE ADDITIONAL ELEMENT WITH
THIS EVENT WILL BE WIND...SPCLY ON SUN...WHICH COULD COMBINE WITH
WET SNFL ON TREES TO CAUSE DOWNED BRANCHES AND SPORADIC POWER
OUTAGES BY SUN NGT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ANY STEADY SN FROM SUN SHOULD WIND DOWN TO SN SHWRS WITH LITTLE
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION SUN NGT...WITH SN SHWRS LINGERING LONGEST
ACROSS THE N EVEN INTO MON MORN ACCOMPANIED BY BRISK NW WINDS.
WINDS SHOULD SLOWLY SLACKEN MON NGT INTO TUE...WITH AT LEAST PRTL
CLRG. CLDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN LATE TUE WITH THE THE NEXT CHC OF
RN SHWRS BEING LATER TUE NGT INTO THU WITH A SERIES OF S/WV FROM
THE GREAT LKS ACCOMPANIED BY MID AND LLVL WARM ADVCN.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD. CEILINGS MAY DROP TO MVFR VERY LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE EAST COAST.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: CLGS AND VSBYS WILL LOWER TO MVFR IN RN
DOWNEAST AND RN/SN MIXED NRN TAF SITES...THEN LOWERING TO IFR
AND LIFR IN MSLY SN BY LATE SAT NGT...CONTG INTO SUN BEFORE
IMPROVING TO MVFR SUN NGT AND THEN TO VFR DOWNEAST SITES MON
AND TUE WHILE NRN TAF SITE REMAIN MSLY MVFR IN BKN-OVC SC.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS QUIET ON THE
WATERS THROUGH THIS EVENING. HOWEVER, WINDS AND WAVES WILL
INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE EAST
COAST. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BE REACHED AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: WE WILL ISSUE A GALE WATCH FOR ALL OF OUR
WATERS FOR THE 12Z SAT TO 12Z MON PD ASSOCIATED WITH THE APCH
AND PASSAGE OF THE COASTAL LOW FROM THE MID ATLC STATES S OF
THE WATERS TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA. AFTWRDS...A PD OF SCA WINDS AND
SEAS...SPCLY FOR THE OUTER MZ WATERS WILL BE NEEDED LATER ON MON
BEFORE WINDS AND SEA SUBSIDE BLO SCA CRITERIA SUN NGT...REMAINING
SO AT LEAST INTO TUE. WENT CLOSE TO WW3 WV GUIDANCE FOR WV HTS FOR
THIS PTN OF THE FA.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HASTINGS
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...HASTINGS/VJN
MARINE...HASTINGS/VJN




000
FXUS61 KCAR 310842
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
442 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
FAIR AND SEASONAL WEATHER IS EXPECTED INTO TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES INTO THE REGION. A COASTAL STORM WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE
REGION BY LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ANOTHER QUIET DAY TODAY AS THE REGION REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE. THE NORTH WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH
THE DAY WHILE SOUTHERN REGIONS WILL SEE SOME SUNSHINE. IT SHOULD
BE NOTED THAT A FAIR AMOUNT OF THE GUIDANCE SPITS OUT A BIT OF QPF
ACROSS THE NORTH, BUT FEEL THIS IS OVERDONE DUE TO THE DRY LAYER
AT LOW LEVELS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID
40S IN THE NORTH TO THE LOWER 50S SOUTH.

FOR TONIGHT...THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO GIVE WAY TO THE FIRST WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST. THIS TRANSITION WILL
BE SLOW, THOUGH, SO EXPECT ANY PRECIPITATION TO HOLD OFF UNTIL WELL
AFTER MIDNIGHT. AND EVEN THEN, ONLY FAR DOWNEAST REALLY HAS MUCH OF
A CHANCE OF SEEING PRECIPITATION BEFORE DAYBREAK. TONIGHT`S
TEMPERATURES ARE A BIT TRICKY, AS IT LOOKS LIKE MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE
IS GOING TOO COLD. DEWPOINTS WILL BE COLD, BUT WITH INCREASING CLOUD
COVER AND NORTHEAST WIND, RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE GREATLY
INHIBITED. THEREFORE, RAISED OVERNIGHT LOWS ONE CATEGORY FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST, WHICH WOULD GIVE NORTHERN AREAS LOWS IN THE LOWER
30S AND THE MID/UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S DOWNEAST. THEREFORE, EXPECT
MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION TO FALL AS RAIN, WITH PERHAPS A LITTLE
SNOW FOR INTERIOR DOWNEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS CONT TO SHOW RUN TO RUN AND MODEL TO MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH
THE LOW PRES COMPLEX XPCTD TO EVOLVE JUST OFF THE SE COAST BY SAT
AND THEN MOVE TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA BY LATE SUN. FOR THE PURPOSE OF
THIS UPDATE...WE DID NOT USE MUCH OF THE 00Z DTMNSTC GFS ATTM...
WHICH APPEARED TO BE TO FAR NW WITH THE STORM TRACK...TO LOW
FOR THE CNTRL LOW PRES AND SUBSEQUENTLY BEING TO HVY WITH LIQ
EQUIV QPF. WE LEANED MORE WITH 00Z WPC...ECMWF...AND NAM GUIDANCE
FOR 6 HRLY QPF AND DERIVED SNFLS FOR THIS PTN OF THE FCST. LOW
CONFIDENCE CAN BE THE MAIN STATEMENT WITH THIS EVENT...WITH THE
POTENTIAL OF SHARP CUT-OFFS OF QPF/SNFL SPCLY ON SUN SOMEWHERE
OVR THE FA...MOST LIKELY OVR THE ERN PTN OF THE REGION. WE ARE
MORE CONFIDENT OF GETTING SOME QPF WITH THE FIRST SURGE OF
MOISTURE WITH OVRRNG LATE SAT INTO ERLY SUN MORN WITH A LEAD...
WEAKER S/WV AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER LOW. ITS THE THE PLACEMENT OF
THE NEXT BATCH OF QPF WITH THE MAIN SFC/UPPER LOW THAT COULD
AFFECT OUR FA...SPCLY THE SE... LATER SUN INTO SUN EVE THAT IS IN
QUESTION...AND FOR NOW WE SHOW MORE OF A GRAZING OF QPF THESE
PDS...BUT THIS IS THE MOST UNCERTAIN ASPECT OF THE FCST...WITH
EVEN A LITTLE DIFFERENCE E OR W GREATLY AFFECTING THE POTENTIAL
OF ADDITIONAL SNFL ACROSS THE REGION.

WE BEGIN WITH LOW SN RATIOS SAT EVE WHEN THE FIRST BATCH OF PRECIP
ARRIVES...SINCE LLVL ADVCN AND DYNAMIC COOLING FROM ALF WILL BE
NEEDED FOR THE CHGOVR OF RN TO SN...WHICH WILL HAPPEN FIRST ACROSS
THE N AND CNTRL...AND BY LATE SAT NGT OVR DOWNEAST AREAS. WE DO
BRING SN RATIOS CLOSER TO 10:1 N OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST LATE SAT
NGT INTO SUN MORN. AFTWRDS...SN RATIOS WILL DEPEND LATER ON SUN
WHETHER STEADY PRECIP IS STILL OCCURRING OVR THE FA. THE UPSHOT
OF THIS UNCERTAINTY IS THAT WE WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY WATCHES FOR
NOW TO ALLOW THE DAY SHIFT AT LEAST ONE MORE MODEL RUN BEFORE
COMMITTING TO ANY WATCHES. ONE ADDITIONAL ELEMENT WITH THIS EVENT
WILL BE WIND...SPCLY ON SUN...WHICH COULD COMBINE WITH WET SNFL ON
TREES TO CAUSE DOWNED BRANCHES AND SPORADIC POWER OUTAGES BY SUN
NGT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ANY STEADY SN FROM SUN SHOULD WIND DOWN TO SN SHWRS WITH LITTLE
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION SUN NGT...WITH SN SHWRS LINGERING LONGEST
ACROSS THE N EVEN INTO MON MORN ACCOMPANIED BY BRISK NW WINDS.
WINDS SHOULD SLOWLY SLACKEN MON NGT INTO TUE...WITH AT LEAST PRTL
CLRG. CLDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN LATE TUE WITH THE THE NEXT CHC OF
RN SHWRS BEING LATER TUE NGT INTO THU WITH A SERIES OF S/WV FROM
THE GREAT LKS ACCOMPANIED BY MID AND LLVL WARM ADVCN.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD. CEILINGS MAY DROP TO MVFR VERY LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE EAST COAST.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: CLGS AND VSBYS WILL LOWER TO MVFR IN RN
DOWNEAST AND RN/SN MIXED NRN TAF SITES...THEN LOWERING TO IFR
AND LIFR IN MSLY SN BY LATE SAT NGT...CONTG INTO SUN BEFORE
IMPROVING TO MVFR SUN NGT AND THEN TO VFR DOWNEAST SITES MON
AND TUE WHILE NRN TAF SITE REMAIN MSLY MVFR IN BKN-OVC SC.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS QUIET ON THE
WATERS THROUGH THIS EVENING. HOWEVER, WINDS AND WAVES WILL
INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE EAST
COAST. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BE REACHED AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: WE WILL ISSUE A GALE WATCH FOR ALL OF OUR
WATERS FOR THE 12Z SAT TO 12Z MON PD ASSOCIATED WITH THE APCH
AND PASSAGE OF THE COASTAL LOW FROM THE MID ATLC STATES S OF
THE WATERS TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA. AFTWRDS...A PD OF SCA WINDS AND
SEAS...SPCLY FOR THE OUTER MZ WATERS WILL BE NEEDED LATER ON MON
BEFORE WINDS AND SEA SUBSIDE BLO SCA CRITERIA SUN NGT...REMAINING
SO AT LEAST INTO TUE. WENT CLOSE TO WW3 WV GUIDANCE FOR WV HTS FOR
THIS PTN OF THE FA.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HASTINGS
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...HASTINGS/VJN
MARINE...HASTINGS/VJN




000
FXUS61 KGYX 310732
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
332 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL REDEVELOP OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST TODAY AND WILL TRACK NORTHEAST TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST INTO THE MARITIMES SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING. A STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION
SUNDAY NIGHT. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST
ON MONDAY AND WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
HOLD OFF THE EAST COAST ON TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE AREA TODAY EVEN AS COASTAL LOW PRESSURE
ORGANIZES NEAR THE CAROLINAS. WE WILL SEE INCREASING CLOUDS BUT
ANY RAIN WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE TONIGHT. WARM AIR ADVECTION
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM WILL HELP BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 40S NORTH TO LOWER TO MID 50S SOUTH DESPITE A
CHILLY START.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
LIGHT WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES OVERNIGHT FRIDAY. THE MOUNTAINS
AND FOOTHILLS SHOULD STILL DROP INTO THE LOWER 30S EARLY ON...
WITH MID TO UPPER 30S OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN AND LOWER 40S ALONG
THE COAST. LIGHT SNOW WILL BEGIN TO FALL IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS
TOP DOWN SATURATION OCCURS AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN WILL SPREAD ONTO
THE NH AND MAINE COASTS BY SATURDAY MORNING AS THE INFLUENCE FROM
THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERS MOVING UP THE EAST
COAST IS FELT. THE SECOND...MORE DYNAMIC LOW WILL PHASE WITH THE
FIRST LOW SOMETIME SUNDAY AND BRING MEASURABLE SNOW TO MUCH OF
EASTERN MAINE. MEASURABLE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FOR SATURDAY THROUGH 6
PM WILL RESIDE IN THE MOUNTAINS AND GENERALLY BE LESS THAN A
COUPLE INCHES. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 40S AREAWIDE. WINDS
WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP AS A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPS OVER
THE AREA. WE SHOULD HAVE SOME GUSTS TO 25 MPH OR SO BY SATURDAY
NIGHT. A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED...ESPECIALLY FOR THE COAST
AND PERHAPS THE CAPITAL DISTRICT AS THE SYSTEM RAPIDLY DEEPENS
JUST OFFSHORE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
SATURDAY NIGHT. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS WILL COOL OVERNIGHT AS
COLDER AIR IS DRAWN INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST.
APPEARS RAIN WILL GRADUALLY MIX WITH AND CHANGE TO WET SNOW IN
NORTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES AND THIS TREND WILL WORK ITS WAY SOUTH
TO THE COAST BY SUNDAY MORNING. THICKNESSES SUGGEST MORE OF A MIX
IN MIDCOAST AND INTERIOR CENTRAL MAINE. BIG DIFFERENCES IN MODEL
QPF AT THIS POINT SO SNOWFALL AMOUNTS STILL A BIG QUESTION BUT THE
POTENTIAL WILL BE THERE FOR SEVERAL INCHES OF WET SNOW IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS OF MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE.

SNOW AND MIXED PRECIP WILL LAST INTO SUNDAY AS INTENSE LOW PRESSURE
SHIFTS INTO THE MARITIMES. EXPECT MIXED PRECIP IN SOUTHERN ZONES
TO GRADUALLY GO OVER TO SNOW AS COLDER AIR FLOODS IN BEHIND
DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE. COULD SEE SEVERAL ADDITIONAL INCHES OF WET
SNOW IN NORTHERN ZONES BEFORE PRECIP TAPERS OFF LATE IN THE DAY.

STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL IN THE WAKE OF THE STORM SUNDAY
NIGHT. EXPECT GRADUAL CLEARING DOWNWIND OF THE MOUNTAINS
OVERNIGHT. DESPITE THE WINDS WILL SEE SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR OF
THE SEASON WITH TEMPS DIPPING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S NORTH AND
MID TO UPPER 20S SOUTH.

RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON MONDAY.
EXPECT STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS TO PERSIST FOR MUCH OF
THE DAY BEFORE DROPPING OFF IN THE EVENING. HIGH WILL RANGE FROM
THE MID TO UPPER 30S NORTH AND LOWER TO MID 40S SOUTH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT AND RETURN FLOW WILL
BEGIN TO BRING WARMER AIR BACK INTO THE REGION. WEAK OVER-RUNNING
SETTING UP TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE REGION WILL BRING
INCREASING CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF A SPRINKLE OR FLURRY TO NORTHERN
ZONES TOWARD DAYBREAK.

WARMER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY.
VARIABLE CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL IN THE SOUTH WITH A LITTLE MORE IN
THE WAY OF CLOUDINESS IN THE NORTH ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS.

COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING
INCREASING CLOUDS AND INCREASING POPS IN NORTHWEST ZONES AFTER
MIDNIGHT. COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY PUSH THROUGH THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY WITH A ROUND OF SHOWERS FOR MOST AREAS. THE FRONT WILL
STALL TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AN APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE WILL SPIN UP LOW PRESSURE ON THIS BOUNDARY OVERNIGHT
SETTING THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN AND OR MIXED PRECIP ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE REGION. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING
VFR CEILINGS.

LONG TERM...IFR/LIFR CEILINGS AND VSBY SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY...IMPROVING TO VFR SUNDAY NIGHT. VFR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE THEY BEGIN TO INCREASE. HAVE ISSUED A
GALE WATCH FOR EARLY SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY MONDAY AS
SEAS INCREASE TO 8-12 FT.

LONG TERM...GALES LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
WINDS WILL SKIRT STORM FORCE SUNDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

HANES/SINSABAUGH




000
FXUS61 KCAR 310451
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1251 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
FAIR AND SEASONAL WEATHER IS EXPECTED INTO FRIDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE REGION. A COASTAL STORM WILL LIKELY
IMPACT THE REGION BY LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1250 AM UPDATE...TEMPERATURES WERE THE BIG CHALLENGE FOR
TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY. CLOUDS HAVE BEEN VERY SLOW TO ERODE ACROSS
THE NORTH, AND HAVE EVEN SEEN SOME DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL MAINE. HAVE THEREFORE UPPED OVERNIGHT LOWS A BIT IN THESE
AREAS, AS IT LOOKS LIKE THE CLOUDS WILL NOT DISSIPATE COMPLETELY.
HOWEVER, SHOULD CLEARING OCCUR, TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY DROP
QUICKLY AS DEWPOINTS ARE CURRENTLY IN THE MID AND UPPER 20S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN CHALLENGE THIS TERM WILL BE CLOUDS AND TEMPS AND THEN
EYES TURN THE UPCOMING STORM AS DISCUSSED IN THE SHORT TERM
SECTION.

CLOUDS HANGING AROUND A BIT LONGER IN THE EVENING PER THE
NAM12/RAP SOUNDINGS AS MOISTURE HOLDING IN FROM 900-800MBS. THE
COLUMN LOOKS TO DRY OUT LATER ON TONIGHT W/CLEARING AFTER, BUT
CLOUDS WILL ONCE AGAIN INCREASE ON FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. COLDER AIR FILTERING INTO THE REGION
OVERNIGHT W/THE PARTIAL CLEARING AND WIND BECOMING LIGHT, THIS
WILL LEAD TO TEMPERATURES BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING DROPPING BELOW
32F ALL THE WAY DOWN TO THE INTERIOR DOWNEAST SECTIONS. ATTM, IT
LOOKS AS THOUGH THE COAST WILL HOLD UP A BIT INTO THE MID 30S.

FOR FRIDAY, THE THICKEST CLOUD COVER WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH AND
WEST AS DISCUSSED ABOVE. THIS WILL KEEP AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS IN
THE LOW TO MID 40S WHILE MORE SUN ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST
AREAS WILL ALLOW FOR UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAIN FOCUS FOR THIS PART OF THE FORECAST WILL BE COASTAL STORM TO IMPACT
THE CWA OVER THE WEEKEND....

CLOUDS THICKEN UP FRIDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZES TO THE
SOUTH IN RESPONSE TO STRONG 500 MB SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE BASE OF
LONG WAVE TROUGH. AT THIS POINT SYSTEM LOOKS TO OCCUR IN TWO
PHASES....INITIAL SHOT OF PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BREAK OUT LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY IN RESPONSE TO NORTHERN PIECE OF
ENERGY. IF PRECIP COMES IN EARLY ENOUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT OR
EARLY SATURDAY, THERE COULD BE A BIT OF SNOW AT THE ONSET BEFORE
A CHANGE TO MAINLY RAIN OCCURS SATURDAY DUE TO BOUNDARY LAYER
WARMING. LATE IN THE DAY SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT EXPECT
PRECIP TO PICK UP, ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS AS
LOW DRAWS CLOSER. THERE CONTINUE TO BE DIFFERENCES IN THE FORECAST
MODELS WITH THE GFS NOW THE OUTLIER AS IT IS FARTHER WEST THAN
THE ECMWF AND GEM GLOBAL. TRENDED TOWARD THE GEM/ECMWF WITH THIS
UPDATE WHICH TRACK THE LOW OVER NOVA SCOTIA COMPARED TO THE GFS
WHICH TAKES THE LOW INTO THE BAY OF FUNDY. THIS SOLUTION RESULTS
IN A TRANSITION TO SNOW OCCURRING SATURDAY EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT AS COLDER AIR IS DRAWN INTO THE STORM FROM THE NORTH.
THE ONLY AREA THAT MAY HANG ON TO A MIX OR RAIN WOULD BE RIGHT
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. IT IS STILL EARLY TO BE CONFIDENT ON
SNOW ACCUMULATION HOWEVER PLOWABLE AMOUNTS APPEAR LIKELY OVER
SOUTHEASTERN AREAS BY SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY INTERIOR WASHINGTON AND
HANCOCK COUNTIES. WITH THIS MORE EASTERN TRACK, AMOUNTS TAPER
HEADING FARTHER WEST IN THE FORECAST AREA. DUE TO THE CONSENSUS
TAKING THE STORM FARTHER EAST AND THE CONCERN ABOUT JUST HOW FAST
TEMPERATURES COOL AS PRECIP MOVES IN, WILL HOLD OFF ON WATCH AT
THIS TIME. HOWEVER A MORE WESTERN TRACK CAN STILL NOT BE RULED
OUT. THE OTHER FACTOR THAT NEEDS TO BE HIGHLIGHTED IS THE WINDS
WHICH WILL BECOME QUITE STRONG OUT OF THE NORTH BY SUNDAY AS THE
LOW INTENSITIES IN RESPONSE TO MAIN SHORTWAVE ENERGY LIFTING
NORTH.

FOR SUNDAY, EXPECT ANOTHER SHOT OF PRECIP TO MOVE IN ASSOCIATED
WITH PRIMARY SHORTWAVE ALOFT AND RAPIDLY DEEPENING SFC LOW
LIFTING INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. AT THIS TIME EXPECT PRECIP IN
THE FORM OF SNOW OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX TO BE FOCUSED PRIMARILY OVER
EXTREME EASTERN AREAS, ESPECIALLY WASHINGTON COUNTY, WITH
ADDITIONAL WIND DRIVEN SNOW ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE. ELSEWHERE THE
BIG STORY WILL BE THE STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS AND COLD
TEMPERATURES...INCREASED WINDS WITH THIS UPDATE AND HAVE GUSTS OF
25 TO 35 MPH FOR SUNDAY WHICH MAY EVEN BE CONSERVATIVE. HIGHS
SUNDAY WILL ONLY BE IN THE 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PRECIP WILL WIND DOWN SUNDAY NIGHT WITH WINDY AND COLD CONDITIONS
CONTINUING FOR MONDAY. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO MODERATE HEADING INTO
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM TRACKING FARTHER WEST
DURING THIS TIME AND LIKELY BRINGING MAINLY JUST SOME RAIN
SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: EXPECT CONDITIONS TO LOWER TO MVFR AND
EVENTUALY IFR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS RAIN AND SNOW MOVE IN
ALONG WITH LOW STRATUS. SNOW OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX MAY LINGER INTO
SUNDAY ALONG WITH VERY STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HEADLINES. WINDS 10-15 KTS WILL DROP BACK TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY W/SOME WEAK RIDGING MOVING OVER THE WATERS. SEAS ATTM
RUNNING 2-3FT AND EXPECTED TO HOLD THAT WAY INTO FRIDAY.

SHORT TO LONG TERM:
EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS TO INCREASE LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT. BY SUNDAY, STRONG GALE TO EVEN STORM FORCE WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN ADDITION TO WAVE HEIGHTS AROUND 10 FT. CONDITIONS
SUBSIDE HEADING INTO MONDAY BUT WILL STILL BE ABOVE SCA LEVELS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE SO FAR THIS MONTH AT BANGOR IS
52.3 DEGREES...WHICH IS 4.8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. IT HAS BEEN THE
WARMEST OCTOBER SINCE 1968.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HASTINGS/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...FITZSIMMONS
LONG TERM...FITZSIMMONS
AVIATION...HASTINGS/HEWITT/FITZSIMMONS
MARINE...HASTINGS/HEWITT/FITZSIMMONS
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KCAR 310123
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
923 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
FAIR AND SEASONAL WEATHER IS EXPECTED INTO FRIDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE REGION. A COASTAL STORM WILL LIKELY
IMPACT THE REGION BY LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
923 PM UPDATE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE
CWA FROM THE WEST. THERE ARE STILL A LOT OF CLOUDS TRAPPED BETWEEN
4-6K FT AGL. THE 00Z KCAR SOUNDING SHOWS THIS NICELY WITH A
SATURATED LAYER AROUND 6K FT AGL WITH GOOD DRYING EVIDENT ABOVE
THAT LAYER. THE CLOUDS HAVE BROKEN UP/DISSIPATED IN SOME SPOTS
DOWN EAST...BUT ARE HOLDING TOUGH ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE AS WELL AS
THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS. THERE WILL BE CONTINUED DRYING OF THE AIR
MASS OVERNIGHT...BUT IT APPEARS THAT THESE CLOUDS WILL HANG IN
MUCH IF NOT ALL OF THE NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN AND WESTERN
MAINE. THE MAIN UPDATE WAS TO INCREASE THE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. IF THE CLOUDS
HOLD TILL MORNING THE LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE TOO WARM IN THE FAR
NORTH. WILL TWEAK THEM UP A DEGREE OR TWO...BUT NOT ALL THAT MUCH
AS SOME CLEARING IS STILL POSSIBLE TOWARD MORNING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN CHALLENGE THIS TERM WILL BE CLOUDS AND TEMPS AND THEN
EYES TURN THE UPCOMING STORM AS DISCUSSED IN THE SHORT TERM
SECTION.

CLOUDS HANGING AROUND A BIT LONGER IN THE EVENING PER THE
NAM12/RAP SOUNDINGS AS MOISTURE HOLDING IN FROM 900-800MBS. THE
COLUMN LOOKS TO DRY OUT LATER ON TONIGHT W/CLEARING AFTER, BUT
CLOUDS WILL ONCE AGAIN INCREASE ON FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. COLDER AIR FILTERING INTO THE REGION
OVERNIGHT W/THE PARTIAL CLEARING AND WIND BECOMING LIGHT, THIS
WILL LEAD TO TEMPERATURES BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING DROPPING BELOW
32F ALL THE WAY DOWN TO THE INTERIOR DOWNEAST SECTIONS. ATTM, IT
LOOKS AS THOUGH THE COAST WILL HOLD UP A BIT INTO THE MID 30S.

FOR FRIDAY, THE THICKEST CLOUD COVER WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH AND
WEST AS DISCUSSED ABOVE. THIS WILL KEEP AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS IN
THE LOW TO MID 40S WHILE MORE SUN ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST
AREAS WILL ALLOW FOR UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAIN FOCUS FOR THIS PART OF THE FORECAST WILL BE COASTAL STORM TO IMPACT
THE CWA OVER THE WEEKEND....

CLOUDS THICKEN UP FRIDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZES TO THE
SOUTH IN RESPONSE TO STRONG 500 MB SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE BASE OF
LONG WAVE TROUGH. AT THIS POINT SYSTEM LOOKS TO OCCUR IN TWO
PHASES....INITIAL SHOT OF PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BREAK OUT LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY IN RESPONSE TO NORTHERN PIECE OF
ENERGY. IF PRECIP COMES IN EARLY ENOUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT OR
EARLY SATURDAY, THERE COULD BE A BIT OF SNOW AT THE ONSET BEFORE
A CHANGE TO MAINLY RAIN OCCURS SATURDAY DUE TO BOUNDARY LAYER
WARMING. LATE IN THE DAY SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT EXPECT
PRECIP TO PICK UP, ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS AS
LOW DRAWS CLOSER. THERE CONTINUE TO BE DIFFERENCES IN THE FORECAST
MODELS WITH THE GFS NOW THE OUTLIER AS IT IS FARTHER WEST THAN
THE ECMWF AND GEM GLOBAL. TRENDED TOWARD THE GEM/ECMWF WITH THIS
UPDATE WHICH TRACK THE LOW OVER NOVA SCOTIA COMPARED TO THE GFS
WHICH TAKES THE LOW INTO THE BAY OF FUNDY. THIS SOLUTION RESULTS
IN A TRANSITION TO SNOW OCCURRING SATURDAY EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT AS COLDER AIR IS DRAWN INTO THE STORM FROM THE NORTH.
THE ONLY AREA THAT MAY HANG ON TO A MIX OR RAIN WOULD BE RIGHT
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. IT IS STILL EARLY TO BE CONFIDENT ON
SNOW ACCUMULATION HOWEVER PLOWABLE AMOUNTS APPEAR LIKELY OVER
SOUTHEASTERN AREAS BY SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY INTERIOR WASHINGTON AND
HANCOCK COUNTIES. WITH THIS MORE EASTERN TRACK, AMOUNTS TAPER
HEADING FARTHER WEST IN THE FORECAST AREA. DUE TO THE CONSENSUS
TAKING THE STORM FARTHER EAST AND THE CONCERN ABOUT JUST HOW FAST
TEMPERATURES COOL AS PRECIP MOVES IN, WILL HOLD OFF ON WATCH AT
THIS TIME. HOWEVER A MORE WESTERN TRACK CAN STILL NOT BE RULED
OUT. THE OTHER FACTOR THAT NEEDS TO BE HIGHLIGHTED IS THE WINDS
WHICH WILL BECOME QUITE STRONG OUT OF THE NORTH BY SUNDAY AS THE
LOW INTENSITIES IN RESPONSE TO MAIN SHORTWAVE ENERGY LIFTING
NORTH.

FOR SUNDAY, EXPECT ANOTHER SHOT OF PRECIP TO MOVE IN ASSOCIATED
WITH PRIMARY SHORTWAVE ALOFT AND RAPIDLY DEEPENING SFC LOW
LIFTING INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. AT THIS TIME EXPECT PRECIP IN
THE FORM OF SNOW OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX TO BE FOCUSED PRIMARILY OVER
EXTREME EASTERN AREAS, ESPECIALLY WASHINGTON COUNTY, WITH
ADDITIONAL WIND DRIVEN SNOW ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE. ELSEWHERE THE
BIG STORY WILL BE THE STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS AND COLD
TEMPERATURES...INCREASED WINDS WITH THIS UPDATE AND HAVE GUSTS OF
25 TO 35 MPH FOR SUNDAY WHICH MAY EVEN BE CONSERVATIVE. HIGHS
SUNDAY WILL ONLY BE IN THE 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PRECIP WILL WIND DOWN SUNDAY NIGHT WITH WINDY AND COLD CONDITIONS
CONTINUING FOR MONDAY. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO MODERATE HEADING INTO
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM TRACKING FARTHER WEST
DURING THIS TIME AND LIKELY BRINGING MAINLY JUST SOME RAIN
SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: EXPECT CONDITIONS TO LOWER TO MVFR AND
EVENTUALY IFR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS RAIN AND SNOW MOVE IN
ALONG WITH LOW STRATUS. SNOW OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX MAY LINGER INTO
SUNDAY ALONG WITH VERY STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HEADLINES. WINDS 10-15 KTS WILL DROP BACK TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY W/SOME WEAK RIDGING MOVING OVER THE WATERS. SEAS ATTM
RUNNING 2-3FT AND EXPECTED TO HOLD THAT WAY INTO FRIDAY.

SHORT TO LONG TERM:
EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS TO INCREASE LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT. BY SUNDAY, STRONG GALE TO EVEN STORM FORCE WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN ADDITION TO WAVE HEIGHTS AROUND 10 FT. CONDITIONS
SUBSIDE HEADING INTO MONDAY BUT WILL STILL BE ABOVE SCA LEVELS.

&&

.CLIMATE...THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE SO FAR THIS MONTH AT BANGOR IS
52.3 DEGREES...WHICH IS 4.8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. IT HAS BEEN THE
WARMEST OCTOBER SINCE 1968.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CB/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...FITZSIMMONS
LONG TERM...FITZSIMMONS
AVIATION...CB/HEWITT/FITZSIMMONS
MARINE...CB/HEWITT/FITZSIMMONS
CLIMATE...CB




000
FXUS61 KGYX 310109
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
909 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT AND THEN SHIFTS TO
THE EAST ON FRIDAY. A LARGE SYSTEM IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE WILL
PRODUCE A SERIES OF COASTAL LOWS OVER THE WEEKEND...AND WILL
BRING RAIN TO THE REGION SATURDAY...WHICH COULD CHANGE TO SNOW
SATURDAY NIGHT IN SOME AREAS AND ACCUMULATE BY SUNDAY MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
---900PM UPDATE---
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO FALL THIS EVENING BUT SHOULD SLOW DOWN
SOME OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE BOTTOMING OUT IN THE UPPER 20S
TO LOWER 30S. NO MAJOR CHANGES EXPECTED TO THE FORECAST FOR
TONIGHT.

---640PM UPDATE---
RATHER QUIET NIGHT IN STORE FOR NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WEAK
PERTURBATIONS MOVING THROUGH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP
INTERMITTANT CLOUDS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. CURRENT
TEMPERATURES ARE A LITTLE BIT COOLER THAN FORECAST BY ONE OR TWO
DEGREES. WILL UPDATE TO ADJUST THEM FOR CURRENT TRENDS.
OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES NECESSARY.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.../
3 PM...UPSLOPE/DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS CONTINUE
THIS AFTERNOON ANS WILL START TO WANE THIS EVENING AS SFC HIGH
BUILDS IN AND NW FLOW DROPS OFF...BUT UNLIKELY CLOUDS WILL NOT
DISAPPEAR COMPLETELY...ESPECIALLY IN THE MTNS...AS FLOW ALOFT
REMAINS A LITTLE UNSETTLED. SO LOOK FOR SKIES TO BECOME MOSTLY
CLEAR FROM THE FOOTHILLS TO THE COAST AND PARTLY CLOUDY LATE IN
THE MTNS. MIND DROP INTO THE 30 TO 40 RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SFC HIGH SHIFTS NE ON FRI ANS COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE
CAROLINAS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR OUR FLOW TO SHIFT NE WHICH WILL
KEEP MAXES SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY...IN THE UPPER 40S
TO LOWER 50S MOSTLY. THE DAY WILL START PARTLY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY...BUT LOOK FOR CLOUDS TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION IN THE
AFTERNOON FROM BOTH THE S AND THE WEST AS TWO SFC LOWS
APPROACH...ONE FORM THE W AND ONE FORM THE S. DESPITE THE
CLOUDS...IT WILL REMAIN DRY TROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.

COULD SEE SOME SHRA/-RA/DZ MOVE IN FROM THE COASTAL LOW LATE FRI
NIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS THE COAST AND SRN NH. MINS SHOULD OCCUR
AROUND MIDNIGHT...WITH TEMPS RISING BEFORE DAYBREAK AND LOWS WILL
BE IN THE MID 30S N TO LOW 40S S. ANY SIGNIF PRECIP LOOKS TO HOLD
OFF UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE SAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE CONTINUES TO BE THE EVOLUTION OF A
STORM SYSTEM MOVING FROM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC STATES SATURDAY AND
INTO THE MARITIMES SUNDAY. THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM AS A WHOLE
CONTINUES TO BE QUITE TRICKY AS THERE REMAINS AT LEAST TWO IF NOT
THREE STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WITH SHORT WAVELENGTHS THAT ROUND
THE MEAN TROUGH. THIS IS ALLOWING SHIFTS IN THE MODELS FROM RUN TO
RUN IN THE QPF FORECAST ACROSS OUR AREA DEPENDING ON WHICH SHORT
WAVE DOMINATES. AS OF RIGHT NOW...THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN PRETTY
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH BRINGING A SLUG OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS OUR
AREA...MAINLY THE COASTAL PLAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WITH THE LEAD SHORT WAVE. HAVE THEREFORE GONE WITH LIKELY/CAT POPS
ACROSS SOUTHERN AND COASTAL ZONES DURING THIS TIME.
THEREAFTER...THE REST OF THE ENERGY SHOULD MISS US TO THE EAST
RESULTING IN A DRY SCENARIO AFTER MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY. HOWEVER...STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AND CHANGEABILITY WITH
THIS SCENARIO GIVEN THE COMPLICATED SHORT WAVE SETUP.

MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN SAT AND
SAT NIGHT GIVEN BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES THAT SHOULD BE A
LITTLE TOO WARM FOR SNOW. HOWEVER...A CHANGE TO SNOW IS POSSIBLE
FOR A FEW HOURS TOWARD THE END. ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...A FEW
INCHES OF SNOW COULD FALL DEPENDING ON HOW FAR WEST ANY
PRECIPITATION BAND MAKES IT. WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

IN ANY CASE...THE WIND SHOULD BE THE MAIN ISSUE LATER SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS THE LOW STRENGTHENS AND DEPARTS. A WIND
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR SUNDAY.

THEREAFTER...QUIETER AND WARMER WEATHER IS LIKELY. A COLD FRONT
MAY BRING CHANCY RAIN END OF WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MVFR EXPECTED THRU EARLY SAT MORNING. COULD SEE
COASTAL TERMINALS DROP TO IFR BEFORE DAYBREAK SAT IN LOW
CLOUDS/-RA/DZ.

LONG TERM...IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN RAIN AND SNOW SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE IMPROVING TO VFR LATE SAT NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. NW WIND GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH LIKELY LATER SAT NIGHT AND
SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BLO SCA LVLS THRU FRI EVE. NE
WINDS START TO PICK UP AFTER MIDNIGHT SAT AM...AND COULD GET TO
SCA LVLS BY SUNRISE SAT.

LONG TERM...A DEVELOPING COASTAL STORM WILL AFFECT THE WATERS OVER
THE WEEKEND. THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN STORM TRACK.
CURRENTLY THE STORM PASSES OUTSIDE THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK. HOWEVER
GALES APPEAR LIKELY OVER THE BAYS WITH STORM FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE
OVER THE OUTER WATERS SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY. SEAS WILL ALSO CLIMB
TO 8-15 FT IN THE OUTER WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH BELOW
SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA BY MONDAY NIGHT OR EARLY TUE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

POHL




000
FXUS61 KGYX 302240
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
640 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT AND THEN SHIFTS TO
THE EAST ON FRIDAY. A LARGE SYSTEM IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE WILL
PRODUCE A SERIES OF COASTAL LOWS OVER THE WEEKEND...AND WILL
BRING RAIN TO THE REGION SATURDAY...WHICH COULD CHANGE TO SNOW
SATURDAY NIGHT IN SOME AREAS AND ACCUMULATE BY SUNDAY MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH 6AM FRIDAY/...
---640PM UPDATE---
RATHER QUIET NIGHT IN STORE FOR NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WEAK
PERTURBATIONS MOVING THROUGH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP
INTERMITTANT CLOUDS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. CURRENT
TEMPERATURES ARE A LITTLE BIT COOLER THAN FORECAST BY ONE OR TWO
DEGREES. WILL UPDATE TO ADJUST THEM FOR CURRENT TRENDS.
OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES NECESSARY.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.../
3 PM...UPSLOPE/DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS CONTINUE
THIS AFTERNOON ANS WILL START TO WANE THIS EVENING AS SFC HIGH
BUILDS IN AND NW FLOW DROPS OFF...BUT UNLIKELY CLOUDS WILL NOT
DISAPPEAR COMPLETELY...ESPECIALLY IN THE MTNS...AS FLOW ALOFT
REMAINS A LITTLE UNSETTLED. SO LOOK FOR SKIES TO BECOME MOSTLY
CLEAR FROM THE FOOTHILLS TO THE COAST AND PARTLY CLOUDY LATE IN
THE MTNS. MIND DROP INTO THE 30 TO 40 RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SFC HIGH SHIFTS NE ON FRI ANS COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE
CAROLINAS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR OUR FLOW TO SHIFT NE WHICH WILL
KEEP MAXES SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY...IN THE UPPER 40S
TO LOWER 50S MOSTLY. THE DAY WILL START PARTLY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY...BUT LOOK FOR CLOUDS TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION IN THE
AFTERNOON FROM BOTH THE S AND THE WEST AS TWO SFC LOWS
APPROACH...ONE FORM THE W AND ONE FORM THE S. DESPITE THE
CLOUDS...IT WILL REMAIN DRY TROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.

COULD SEE SOME SHRA/-RA/DZ MOVE IN FROM THE COASTAL LOW LATE FRI
NIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS THE COAST AND SRN NH. MINS SHOULD OCCUR
AROUND MIDNIGHT...WITH TEMPS RISING BEFORE DAYBREAK AND LOWS WILL
BE IN THE MID 30S N TO LOW 40S S. ANY SIGNIF PRECIP LOOKS TO HOLD
OFF UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE SAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE CONTINUES TO BE THE EVOLUTION OF A
STORM SYSTEM MOVING FROM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC STATES SATURDAY AND
INTO THE MARITIMES SUNDAY. THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM AS A WHOLE
CONTINUES TO BE QUITE TRICKY AS THERE REMAINS AT LEAST TWO IF NOT
THREE STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WITH SHORT WAVELENGTHS THAT ROUND
THE MEAN TROUGH. THIS IS ALLOWING SHIFTS IN THE MODELS FROM RUN TO
RUN IN THE QPF FORECAST ACROSS OUR AREA DEPENDING ON WHICH SHORT
WAVE DOMINATES. AS OF RIGHT NOW...THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN PRETTY
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH BRINGING A SLUG OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS OUR
AREA...MAINLY THE COASTAL PLAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WITH THE LEAD SHORT WAVE. HAVE THEREFORE GONE WITH LIKELY/CAT POPS
ACROSS SOUTHERN AND COASTAL ZONES DURING THIS TIME.
THEREAFTER...THE REST OF THE ENERGY SHOULD MISS US TO THE EAST
RESULTING IN A DRY SCENARIO AFTER MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY. HOWEVER...STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AND CHANGEABILITY WITH
THIS SCENARIO GIVEN THE COMPLICATED SHORT WAVE SETUP.

MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN SAT AND
SAT NIGHT GIVEN BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES THAT SHOULD BE A
LITTLE TOO WARM FOR SNOW. HOWEVER...A CHANGE TO SNOW IS POSSIBLE
FOR A FEW HOURS TOWARD THE END. ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...A FEW
INCHES OF SNOW COULD FALL DEPENDING ON HOW FAR WEST ANY
PRECIPITATION BAND MAKES IT. WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

IN ANY CASE...THE WIND SHOULD BE THE MAIN ISSUE LATER SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS THE LOW STRENGTHENS AND DEPARTS. A WIND
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR SUNDAY.

THEREAFTER...QUIETER AND WARMER WEATHER IS LIKELY. A COLD FRONT
MAY BRING CHANCY RAIN END OF WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MVFR EXPECTED THRU EARLY SAT MORNING. COULD SEE
COASTAL TERMINALS DROP TO IFR BEFORE DAYBREAK SAT IN LOW
CLOUDS/-RA/DZ.

LONG TERM...IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN RAIN AND SNOW SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE IMPROVING TO VFR LATE SAT NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. NW WIND GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH LIKELY LATER SAT NIGHT AND
SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BLO SCA LVLS THRU FRI EVE. NE
WINDS START TO PICK UP AFTER MIDNIGHT SAT AM...AND COULD GET TO
SCA LVLS BY SUNRISE SAT.

LONG TERM...A DEVELOPING COASTAL STORM WILL AFFECT THE WATERS OVER
THE WEEKEND. THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN STORM TRACK.
CURRENTLY THE STORM PASSES OUTSIDE THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK. HOWEVER
GALES APPEAR LIKELY OVER THE BAYS WITH STORM FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE
OVER THE OUTER WATERS SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY. SEAS WILL ALSO CLIMB
TO 8-15 FT IN THE OUTER WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH BELOW
SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA BY MONDAY NIGHT OR EARLY TUE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

POHL




000
FXUS61 KCAR 302222
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
622 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
FAIR AND SEASONAL WEATHER IS EXPECTED INTO FRIDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE REGION. A COASTAL STORM WILL LIKELY
IMPACT THE REGION BY LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
622 PM UPDATE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA
TONIGHT FROM THE WEST AND MAKE FOR A DRY AND SEASONABLE NIGHT.
THERE ARE STILL A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS AROUND 6K
FT AGL ACROSS THE CWA WITH MOST OF THE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ACROSS
PARTS OF CENTRAL AND DOWN EAST MAINE. THE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY THIN OUT LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. A LIGHT WIND
REGIME WITH MANY AREAS TO DECOUPLE OVERNIGHT AS THE SFC HIGH
BUILDS INTO THE AREA. LOWS BY MORNING WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
20S TO LOW 30S ACROSS THE CROWN OF MAINE TO THE MID AND UPPER 30S
ALONG THE COAST. THE MAIN UPDATE WAS TO THE SKY GRIDS TO BETTER
REFLECT THE CURRENT CONDTIONS AND TO SLOW THE CLEARING SOME IN THE
NORTH.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN CHALLENGE THIS TERM WILL BE CLOUDS AND TEMPS AND THEN
EYES TURN THE UPCOMING STORM AS DISCUSSED IN THE SHORT TERM
SECTION.

CLOUDS HANGING AROUND A BIT LONGER IN THE EVENING PER THE
NAM12/RAP SOUNDINGS AS MOISTURE HOLDING IN FROM 900-800MBS. THE
COLUMN LOOKS TO DRY OUT LATER ON TONIGHT W/CLEARING AFTER, BUT
CLOUDS WILL ONCE AGAIN INCREASE ON FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. COLDER AIR FILTERING INTO THE REGION
OVERNIGHT W/THE PARTIAL CLEARING AND WIND BECOMING LIGHT, THIS
WILL LEAD TO TEMPERATURES BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING DROPPING BELOW
32F ALL THE WAY DOWN TO THE INTERIOR DOWNEAST SECTIONS. ATTM, IT
LOOKS AS THOUGH THE COAST WILL HOLD UP A BIT INTO THE MID 30S.

FOR FRIDAY, THE THICKEST CLOUD COVER WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH AND
WEST AS DISCUSSED ABOVE. THIS WILL KEEP AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS IN
THE LOW TO MID 40S WHILE MORE SUN ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST
AREAS WILL ALLOW FOR UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAIN FOCUS FOR THIS PART OF THE FORECAST WILL BE COASTAL STORM TO IMPACT
THE CWA OVER THE WEEKEND....

CLOUDS THICKEN UP FRIDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZES TO THE
SOUTH IN RESPONSE TO STRONG 500 MB SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE BASE OF
LONG WAVE TROUGH. AT THIS POINT SYSTEM LOOKS TO OCCUR IN TWO
PHASES....INITIAL SHOT OF PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BREAK OUT LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY IN RESPONSE TO NORTHERN PIECE OF
ENERGY. IF PRECIP COMES IN EARLY ENOUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT OR
EARLY SATURDAY, THERE COULD BE A BIT OF SNOW AT THE ONSET BEFORE
A CHANGE TO MAINLY RAIN OCCURS SATURDAY DUE TO BOUNDARY LAYER
WARMING. LATE IN THE DAY SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT EXPECT
PRECIP TO PICK UP, ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS AS
LOW DRAWS CLOSER. THERE CONTINUE TO BE DIFFERENCES IN THE FORECAST
MODELS WITH THE GFS NOW THE OUTLIER AS IT IS FARTHER WEST THAN
THE ECMWF AND GEM GLOBAL. TRENDED TOWARD THE GEM/ECMWF WITH THIS
UPDATE WHICH TRACK THE LOW OVER NOVA SCOTIA COMPARED TO THE GFS
WHICH TAKES THE LOW INTO THE BAY OF FUNDY. THIS SOLUTION RESULTS
IN A TRANSITION TO SNOW OCCURRING SATURDAY EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT AS COLDER AIR IS DRAWN INTO THE STORM FROM THE NORTH.
THE ONLY AREA THAT MAY HANG ON TO A MIX OR RAIN WOULD BE RIGHT
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. IT IS STILL EARLY TO BE CONFIDENT ON
SNOW ACCUMULATION HOWEVER PLOWABLE AMOUNTS APPEAR LIKELY OVER
SOUTHEASTERN AREAS BY SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY INTERIOR WASHINGTON AND
HANCOCK COUNTIES. WITH THIS MORE EASTERN TRACK, AMOUNTS TAPER
HEADING FARTHER WEST IN THE FORECAST AREA. DUE TO THE CONSENSUS
TAKING THE STORM FARTHER EAST AND THE CONCERN ABOUT JUST HOW FAST
TEMPERATURES COOL AS PRECIP MOVES IN, WILL HOLD OFF ON WATCH AT
THIS TIME. HOWEVER A MORE WESTERN TRACK CAN STILL NOT BE RULED
OUT. THE OTHER FACTOR THAT NEEDS TO BE HIGHLIGHTED IS THE WINDS
WHICH WILL BECOME QUITE STRONG OUT OF THE NORTH BY SUNDAY AS THE
LOW INTENSITIES IN RESPONSE TO MAIN SHORTWAVE ENERGY LIFTING
NORTH.

FOR SUNDAY, EXPECT ANOTHER SHOT OF PRECIP TO MOVE IN ASSOCIATED
WITH PRIMARY SHORTWAVE ALOFT AND RAPIDLY DEEPENING SFC LOW
LIFTING INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. AT THIS TIME EXPECT PRECIP IN
THE FORM OF SNOW OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX TO BE FOCUSED PRIMARILY OVER
EXTREME EASTERN AREAS, ESPECIALLY WASHINGTON COUNTY, WITH
ADDITIONAL WIND DRIVEN SNOW ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE. ELSEWHERE THE
BIG STORY WILL BE THE STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS AND COLD
TEMPERATURES...INCREASED WINDS WITH THIS UPDATE AND HAVE GUSTS OF
25 TO 35 MPH FOR SUNDAY WHICH MAY EVEN BE CONSERVATIVE. HIGHS
SUNDAY WILL ONLY BE IN THE 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PRECIP WILL WIND DOWN SUNDAY NIGHT WITH WINDY AND COLD CONDITIONS
CONTINUING FOR MONDAY. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO MODERATE HEADING INTO
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM TRACKING FARTHER WEST
DURING THIS TIME AND LIKELY BRINGING MAINLY JUST SOME RAIN
SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: EXPECT CONDITIONS TO LOWER TO MVFR AND
EVENTUALY IFR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS RAIN AND SNOW MOVE IN
ALONG WITH LOW STRATUS. SNOW OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX MAY LINGER INTO
SUNDAY ALONG WITH VERY STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HEADLINES. WINDS 10-15 KTS WILL DROP BACK TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY W/SOME WEAK RIDGING MOVING OVER THE WATERS. SEAS ATTM
RUNNING 2-3FT AND EXPECTED TO HOLD THAT WAY INTO FRIDAY.

SHORT TO LONG TERM:
EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS TO INCREASE LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT. BY SUNDAY, STRONG GALE TO EVEN STORM FORCE WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN ADDITION TO WAVE HEIGHTS AROUND 10 FT. CONDITIONS
SUBSIDE HEADING INTO MONDAY BUT WILL STILL BE ABOVE SCA LEVELS.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CB/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...FITZSIMMONS
LONG TERM...FITZSIMMONS
AVIATION...CB/HEWITT/FITZSIMMONS
MARINE...CB/HEWITT/FITZSIMMONS




000
FXUS61 KCAR 302021
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
421 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
FAIR AND SEASONAL WEATHER IS EXPECTED INTO FRIDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE REGION. A COASTAL STORM WILL LIKELY
IMPACT THE REGION BY LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE MAIN CHALLENGE THIS TERM WILL BE CLOUDS AND TEMPS AND THEN
EYES TURN THE UPCOMING STORM AS DISCUSSED IN THE SHORT TERM
SECTION.

CLOUDS HANGING AROUND A BIT LONGER IN THE EVENING PER THE
NAM12/RAP SOUNDINGS AS MOISTURE HOLDING IN FROM 900-800MBS. THE
COLUMN LOOKS TO DRY OUT LATER ON TONIGHT W/CLEARING AFTER, BUT
CLOUDS WILL ONCE AGAIN INCREASE ON FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. COLDER AIR FILTERING INTO THE REGION
OVERNIGHT W/THE PARTIAL CLEARING AND WIND BECOMING LIGHT, THIS
WILL LEAD TO TEMPERATURES BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING DROPPING BELOW
32F ALL THE WAY DOWN TO THE INTERIOR DOWNEAST SECTIONS. ATTM, IT
LOOKS AS THOUGH THE COAST WILL HOLD UP A BIT INTO THE MID 30S.

FOR FRIDAY, THE THICKEST CLOUD COVER WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH AND
WEST AS DISCUSSED ABOVE. THIS WILL KEEP AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS IN
THE LOW TO MID 30S WHILE MORE SUN ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST
AREAS WILL ALLOW FOR UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAIN FOCUS FOR THIS PART OF THE FORECAST WILL BE COASTAL STORM TO IMPACT
THE CWA OVER THE WEEKEND....

CLOUDS THICKEN UP FRIDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZES TO THE
SOUTH IN RESPONSE TO STRONG 500 MB SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE BASE OF
LONG WAVE TROUGH. AT THIS POINT SYSTEM LOOKS TO OCCUR IN TWO
PHASES....INITIAL SHOT OF PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BREAK OUT LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY IN RESPONSE TO NORTHERN PIECE OF
ENERGY. IF PRECIP COMES IN EARLY ENOUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT OR
EARLY SATURDAY, THERE COULD BE A BIT OF SNOW AT THE ONSET BEFORE
A CHANGE TO MAINLY RAIN OCCURS SATURDAY DUE TO BOUNDARY LAYER
WARMING. LATE IN THE DAY SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT EXPECT
PRECIP TO PICK UP, ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS AS
LOW DRAWS CLOSER. THERE CONTINUE TO BE DIFFERENCES IN THE FORECAST
MODELS WITH THE GFS NOW THE OUTLIER AS IT IS FARTHER WEST THAN
THE ECMWF AND GEM GLOBAL. TRENDED TOWARD THE GEM/ECMWF WITH THIS
UPDATE WHICH TRACK THE LOW OVER NOVA SCOTIA COMPARED TO THE GFS
WHICH TAKES THE LOW INTO THE BAY OF FUNDY. THIS SOLUTION RESULTS
IN A TRANSITION TO SNOW OCCURRING SATURDAY EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT AS COLDER AIR IS DRAWN INTO THE STORM FROM THE NORTH.
THE ONLY AREA THAT MAY HANG ON TO A MIX OR RAIN WOULD BE RIGHT
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. IT IS STILL EARLY TO BE CONFIDENT ON
SNOW ACCUMULATION HOWEVER PLOWABLE AMOUNTS APPEAR LIKELY OVER
SOUTHEASTERN AREAS BY SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY INTERIOR WASHINGTON AND
HANCOCK COUNTIES. WITH THIS MORE EASTERN TRACK, AMOUNTS TAPER
HEADING FARTHER WEST IN THE FORECAST AREA. DUE TO THE CONSENSUS
TAKING THE STORM FARTHER EAST AND THE CONCERN ABOUT JUST HOW FAST
TEMPERATURES COOL AS PRECIP MOVES IN, WILL HOLD OFF ON WATCH AT
THIS TIME. HOWEVER A MORE WESTERN TRACK CAN STILL NOT BE RULED
OUT. THE OTHER FACTOR THAT NEEDS TO BE HIGHLIGHTED IS THE WINDS
WHICH WILL BECOME QUITE STRONG OUT OF THE NORTH BY SUNDAY AS THE
LOW INTENSITIES IN RESPONSE TO MAIN SHORTWAVE ENERGY LIFTING
NORTH.

FOR SUNDAY, EXPECT ANOTHER SHOT OF PRECIP TO MOVE IN ASSOCIATED
WITH PRIMARY SHORTWAVE ALOFT AND RAPIDLY DEEPENING SFC LOW
LIFTING INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. AT THIS TIME EXPECT PRECIP IN
THE FORM OF SNOW OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX TO BE FOCUSED PRIMARILY OVER
EXTREME EASTERN AREAS, ESPECIALLY WASHINGTON COUNTY, WITH
ADDITIONAL WIND DRIVEN SNOW ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE. ELSEWHERE THE
BIG STORY WILL BE THE STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS AND COLD
TEMPERATURES...INCREASED WINDS WITH THIS UPDATE AND HAVE GUSTS OF
25 TO 35 MPH FOR SUNDAY WHICH MAY EVEN BE CONSERVATIVE. HIGHS
SUNDAY WILL ONLY BE IN THE 30S. &&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PRECIP WILL WIND DOWN SUNDAY NIGHT WITH WINDY AND COLD CONDITIONS
CONTINUING FOR MONDAY. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO MODERATE HEADING INTO
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM TRACKING FARTHER WEST
DURING THIS TIME AND LIKELY BRINGING MAINLY JUST SOME RAIN
SHOWERS.
&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY.
THE EXCEPTION FOR KBGR THIS AFTERNOON AS A TEMPO OF MVFR WILL
BE THERE THROUGH 23Z.

SHORT TO LONG TERM:
EXPECT CONDITIONS TO LOWER TO MVFR AND EVENTUALY IFR FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY AS RAIN AND SNOW MOVE IN ALONG WITH LOW STRATUS.
SNOW OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX MAY LINGER INTO SUNDAY ALONG WITH VERY
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS DURING THIS TIME.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HEADLINES. WINDS 10-15 KTS WILL DROP BACK TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY W/SOME WEAK RIDGING MOVING OVER THE WATERS. SEAS ATTM
RUNNING 2-3FT AND EXPECTED TO HOLD THAT WAY INTO FRIDAY.

SHORT TO LONG TERM:
EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS TO INCREASE LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT. BY SUNDAY, STRONG GALE TO EVEN STORM FORCE WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN ADDITION TO WAVE HEIGHTS AROUND 10 FT. CONDITIONS
SUBSIDE HEADING INTO MONDAY BUT WILL STILL BE ABOVE SCA LEVELS.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HEWITT
SHORT TERM...FITZSIMMONS
LONG TERM...FITZSIMMONS
AVIATION...HEWITT/FITZSIMMONS
MARINE...HEWITT/FITZSIMMONS




000
FXUS61 KGYX 301946
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
346 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT AND THEN SHIFTS TO
THE EAST ON FRIDAY. A LARGE SYSTEM IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE WILL
PRODUCE A SERIES OF COASTAL LOWS OVER THE WEEKEND...AND WILL
BRING RAIN TO THE REGION SATURDAY...WHICH COULD CHANGE TO SNOW
SATURDAY NIGHT IN SOME AREAS AND ACCUMULATE BY SUNDAY MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
3 PM...UPSLOPE/DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON ANS WILL
START TO WANE THIS EVENING AS SFC HIGH BUILDS IN AND NW FLOW DROPS
OFF...BUT UNLIKELY CLOUDS WILL NOT DISAPPEAR
COMPLETELY...ESPECIALLY IN THE MTNS...AS FLOW ALOFT REMAINS A
LITTLE UNSETTLED. SO LOOK FOR SKIES TO BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR FROM
THE FOOTHILLS TO THE COAST AND PARTLY CLOUDY LATE IN THE MTNS.
MIND DROP INTO THE 30 TO 40 RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SFC HIGH SHIFTS NE ON FRI ANS COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE
CAROLINAS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR OUR FLOW TO SHIFT NE WHICH WILL
KEEP MAXES SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY...IN THE UPPER 40S
TO LOWER 50S MOSTLY. THE DAY WILL START PARTLY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY...BUT LOOK FOR CLOUDS TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION IN THE
AFTERNOON FROM BOTH THE S AND THE WEST AS TWO SFC LOWS
APPROACH...ONE FORM THE W AND ONE FORM THE S. DESPITE THE
CLOUDS...IT WILL REMAIN DRY TROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.

COULD SEE SOME SHRA/-RA/DZ MOVE IN FROM THE COASTAL LOW LATE FRI
NIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS THE COAST AND SRN NH. MINS SHOULD OCCUR
AROUND MIDNIGHT...WITH TEMPS RISING BEFORE DAYBREAK AND LOWS WILL
BE IN THE MID 30S N TO LOW 40S S. ANY SIGNIF PRECIP LOOKS TO HOLD
OFF UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE SAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE CONTINUES TO BE THE EVOLUTION OF A
STORM SYSTEM MOVING FROM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC STATES SATURDAY AND
INTO THE MARITIMES SUNDAY. THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM AS A WHOLE
CONTINUES TO BE QUITE TRICKY AS THERE REMAINS AT LEAST TWO IF NOT
THREE STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WITH SHORT WAVELENGTHS THAT ROUND
THE MEAN TROUGH. THIS IS ALLOWING SHIFTS IN THE MODELS FROM RUN TO
RUN IN THE QPF FORECAST ACROSS OUR AREA DEPENDING ON WHICH SHORT
WAVE DOMINATES. AS OF RIGHT NOW...THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN PRETTY
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH BRINGING A SLUG OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS OUR
AREA...MAINLY THE COASTAL PLAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WITH THE LEAD SHORT WAVE. HAVE THEREFORE GONE WITH LIKELY/CAT POPS
ACROSS SOUTHERN AND COASTAL ZONES DURING THIS TIME.
THEREAFTER...THE REST OF THE ENERGY SHOULD MISS US TO THE EAST
RESULTING IN A DRY SCENARIO AFTER MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY. HOWEVER...STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AND CHANGEABILITY WITH
THIS SCENARIO GIVEN THE COMPLICATED SHORT WAVE SETUP.

MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN SAT AND
SAT NIGHT GIVEN BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES THAT SHOULD BE A
LITTLE TOO WARM FOR SNOW. HOWEVER...A CHANGE TO SNOW IS POSSIBLE
FOR A FEW HOURS TOWARD THE END. ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...A FEW
INCHES OF SNOW COULD FALL DEPENDING ON HOW FAR WEST ANY
PRECIPITATION BAND MAKES IT. WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

IN ANY CASE...THE WIND SHOULD BE THE MAIN ISSUE LATER SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS THE LOW STRENGTHENS AND DEPARTS. A WIND
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR SUNDAY.

THEREAFTER...QUIETER AND WARMER WEATHER IS LIKELY. A COLD FRONT
MAY BRING CHANCY RAIN END OF WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MVFR EXPECTED THRU EARLY SAT MORNING. COULD SEE
COASTAL TERMINALS DROP TO IFR BEFORE DAYBREAK SAT IN LOW
CLOUDS/-RA/DZ.

LONG TERM...IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN RAIN AND SNOW SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE IMPROVING TO VFR LATE SAT NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. NW WIND GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH LIKELY LATER SAT NIGHT AND
SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BLO SCA LVLS THRU FRI EVE. NE
WINDS START TO PICK UP AFTER MIDNIGHT SAT AM...AND COULD GET TO
SCA LVLS BY SUNRISE SAT.

LONG TERM...A DEVELOPING COASTAL STORM WILL AFFECT THE WATERS OVER
THE WEEKEND. THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN STORM TRACK.
CURRENTLY THE STORM PASSES OUTSIDE THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK. HOWEVER
GALES APPEAR LIKELY OVER THE BAYS WITH STORM FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE
OVER THE OUTER WATERS SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY. SEAS WILL ALSO CLIMB
TO 8-15 FT IN THE OUTER WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH BELOW
SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA BY MONDAY NIGHT OR EARLY TUE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...CEMPA
LONG TERM...EKSTER
AVIATION...CEMPA/EKSTER
MARINE...CEMPA/EKSTER




000
FXUS61 KCAR 301623
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1223 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
FAIR AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE REGION. A COASTAL STORM WILL LIKELY
IMPACT MOSTLY SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE REGION BY LATE SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1215 PM UPDATE...ADJUSTED THE SKY CONDITIONS DOWN TO REFLECT DRIER
AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION. ADJUSTED WIND FIELD UP A BIT USING THE
LATEST NAM12 GUIDANCE WHICH IS MATCHING THE LATEST CONDITIONS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... WE`LL SEE A BIT OF CLEARING AFTER SUNSET
TONIGHT, BUT CLOUDS WILL ONCE AGAIN INCREASE FRIDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE TREKS EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE NEAR NORMAL, WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 40S NORTH TO THE
LOWER 50S SOUTH. TONIGHT`S TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOL,
ESPECIALLY IN THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY WHERE UPPER 20S ARE POSSIBLE.
ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTH, LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S ARE EXPECTED, WHILE
CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST MAINE WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOWER TO MID
30S; UPPER 30S RIGHT ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS APPEAR TO BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE S/WV ENERGY FROM
CNTRL CAN THAT CONT TO DIG SSE INTO THE CAROLINA`S BY SAT MORN. A
WEAK LEAD S/WV ALLOWS A FIRST SFC LOW TO FORM EAST OF THE VA CAPE
ON THE POLAR FRONT WELL AHEAD OF MAIN ENERGY WITH THE DEVELOPING
UPPER LOW. THIS INITIAL LOW WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR BRINGING THE
INITIAL CLDNSS AND MSLY LGT PRECIP TO THE REGION BY SAT AFTN INTO
SAT NGT...WITH MORE SIG PRECIP TO SE PTNS OF THE FA SAT NGT.
PRECIP...WHICH WILL BE LGT AND UNORGANIZED INTO ERLY SAT AFTN...
WILL FALL MSLY AS RN OR A MIX OF RN AND SN...WITH BOTH LLVL COLD
ADVCN DYNAMIC COOLING FROM ALF RESULTING IN A CHGOVR TO ALL SN
DURG THE EVE HRS TO ALL REGIONS N OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND EVEN
ALG THE COAST BY LATE SAT NGT. IF THE CONSENSUS OF FCST QPF IS
ACCURATE FROM THIS FAR OUT...THE BEST POTENTIAL OF SIG SNFL WITH
THIS FIRST WV OF LOW PRES AS IT TRACKS E OF NOVA SCOTIA WILL BE
OVR INTERIOR SE PTNS OF THE REGION WHERE SVRL INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE...WITH PROGRESSIVELY LESSER SNFL N AND W...BUT WE
EMPHASIZE IT IS STILL ERLY TO COUNT ON ANY PARTICULAR SCENARIO.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BOTH THE 00Z DTMNSTC GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE THAT AFT THE PASSAGE
OF THE FIRST SFC LOW JUST E OF NOVA SCOTIA...THE POLAR FRONT MAY
BE PUSHED FURTHER SE OFF THE ERN U.S. COAST...RESULTING IN THE
SECOND SFC LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN UPPER LOW SUN TO BE FCST
TO TRACK ALG OR A LITTLE FURTHER E THAN THE FIRST SFC LOW...WHICH
IS SIG FURTHER E THAN ADVERTISED BY THE MODELS YSTDY ATTM. IF THIS
SCENARIO WERE TO PLAY OUT...THEN ANY ADDITIONAL SIG SNFL ON SUN
WOULD BE LMTD TO SE WASHINGTON COUNTY...WITH SNFL WINDING DOWN AS
SN SHWRS ELSEWHERE...AND THEN ENDING ACROSS ALL THE REGION SUN
NGT. THE BOTTOM LN WITH THIS COMPLEX SCENARIO IS THAT GIVEN THAT
THE MODEL TREND OF THE TRACKS OF BOTH SFC LOWS IS FURTHER E OVR
THE LAST FEW MODEL RUNS...ITS TO ERLY ATTM TO COMMIT TO ANY WINTER
STM WATCHES FOR EVEN SE PTNS OF THE FA ATTM. THIS IS NOT TO SAY
THAT THE MODEL TREND COULD NOT REVERSE SOMEWHAT WITHIN THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO...BUT GIVEN THE HEMISPHERIC LONG WV SET UP WITH THE
BOTTOMING OF THE S/WV ENERGY OVR THE ERN CAROLINA`S ACCOMPANIED
BY WEAK FAR N ATLC BLOCKING ASSOCIATED WITH AN NAO- TELECONNECTION
PATTERN...EVEN A WORST CASE SCENARIO WOULD ONLY SIG IMPACT THE SE
HLF OF THE FA...WHICH IS SUPPORTED ATTM BY ANALOGS WITH THE UNIV
OF ST LOUIS ANALOG WEB SITE.

FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE SECOND SFC LOW INTO THE ERN MARITIMES...
COLD...BRISK AND DRY CONDITONS CAN BE XPCTD ON MON AS WEAK SFC HI
PRES FROM THE W APCHS BY MON EVE. THIS SFC HI WILL CREST THE FA
MON NGT WITH SLACKENING WINDS. DESPITE THIS...THE ARRIVAL OF HI
CLDNSS ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER S/WV FROM THE GREAT LKS WILL NOT
ALLOW FOR MUCH RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS LATE MON NGT. WITH
MID AND LOW LVL WARM ADVCN UNDERWAY...SHWRS OR LGT RN FROM THIS
S/WV ON TUE MAY BRIEFLY START AS SN OR MIXED RN/SN ACROSS CNTRL
AND NRN PTNS OF THE FA ON TUE THEN CONT TUE NGT INTO WED AS BOTH
850 AND 925 MB TEMPS SLOWLY RISE.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE POSSIBLE MVFR CEILINGS TODAY, MAINLY
AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH
FRIDAY.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: VFR XPCTD FRI NGT...THEN LOWERING TO MVFR ALL
TAF SITES SAT WITH CLD CLGS AND VSBYS IN LGT RN/SN...THEN POSSIBLY
TO IFR SAT NGT INTO SUN IN CLGS AND MSLY SNFL. CONDITIONS IMPROVE
TO VFR CLGS DOWNEAST AND HI MVFR CLGS ACROSS NRN TAF SITES SUN NGT
INTO MON.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS
QUIET ON THE WATERS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. NO HEADLINES ARE
ANTICIPATED.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: WINDS GRADUALLY INCREASE TO POTENTIAL GALE
CONDITIONS FOR SAT INTO ERLY MON...BUT GIVEN HOW FAR OUT IN TM
THIS PTN OF THE FCST IS AND UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE STORM
TRACK...STILL TO ERLY FOR ANY WATCHES ATTM. KEPT CLOSE TO WW3 WV
GUIDANCE FOR FCST WV HTS FOR THESE PTNS OF THE FCST.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...GENTILE/HEWITT




000
FXUS61 KCAR 301623
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1223 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
FAIR AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE REGION. A COASTAL STORM WILL LIKELY
IMPACT MOSTLY SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE REGION BY LATE SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1215 PM UPDATE...ADJUSTED THE SKY CONDITIONS DOWN TO REFLECT DRIER
AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION. ADJUSTED WIND FIELD UP A BIT USING THE
LATEST NAM12 GUIDANCE WHICH IS MATCHING THE LATEST CONDITIONS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... WE`LL SEE A BIT OF CLEARING AFTER SUNSET
TONIGHT, BUT CLOUDS WILL ONCE AGAIN INCREASE FRIDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE TREKS EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE NEAR NORMAL, WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 40S NORTH TO THE
LOWER 50S SOUTH. TONIGHT`S TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOL,
ESPECIALLY IN THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY WHERE UPPER 20S ARE POSSIBLE.
ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTH, LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S ARE EXPECTED, WHILE
CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST MAINE WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOWER TO MID
30S; UPPER 30S RIGHT ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS APPEAR TO BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE S/WV ENERGY FROM
CNTRL CAN THAT CONT TO DIG SSE INTO THE CAROLINA`S BY SAT MORN. A
WEAK LEAD S/WV ALLOWS A FIRST SFC LOW TO FORM EAST OF THE VA CAPE
ON THE POLAR FRONT WELL AHEAD OF MAIN ENERGY WITH THE DEVELOPING
UPPER LOW. THIS INITIAL LOW WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR BRINGING THE
INITIAL CLDNSS AND MSLY LGT PRECIP TO THE REGION BY SAT AFTN INTO
SAT NGT...WITH MORE SIG PRECIP TO SE PTNS OF THE FA SAT NGT.
PRECIP...WHICH WILL BE LGT AND UNORGANIZED INTO ERLY SAT AFTN...
WILL FALL MSLY AS RN OR A MIX OF RN AND SN...WITH BOTH LLVL COLD
ADVCN DYNAMIC COOLING FROM ALF RESULTING IN A CHGOVR TO ALL SN
DURG THE EVE HRS TO ALL REGIONS N OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND EVEN
ALG THE COAST BY LATE SAT NGT. IF THE CONSENSUS OF FCST QPF IS
ACCURATE FROM THIS FAR OUT...THE BEST POTENTIAL OF SIG SNFL WITH
THIS FIRST WV OF LOW PRES AS IT TRACKS E OF NOVA SCOTIA WILL BE
OVR INTERIOR SE PTNS OF THE REGION WHERE SVRL INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE...WITH PROGRESSIVELY LESSER SNFL N AND W...BUT WE
EMPHASIZE IT IS STILL ERLY TO COUNT ON ANY PARTICULAR SCENARIO.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BOTH THE 00Z DTMNSTC GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE THAT AFT THE PASSAGE
OF THE FIRST SFC LOW JUST E OF NOVA SCOTIA...THE POLAR FRONT MAY
BE PUSHED FURTHER SE OFF THE ERN U.S. COAST...RESULTING IN THE
SECOND SFC LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN UPPER LOW SUN TO BE FCST
TO TRACK ALG OR A LITTLE FURTHER E THAN THE FIRST SFC LOW...WHICH
IS SIG FURTHER E THAN ADVERTISED BY THE MODELS YSTDY ATTM. IF THIS
SCENARIO WERE TO PLAY OUT...THEN ANY ADDITIONAL SIG SNFL ON SUN
WOULD BE LMTD TO SE WASHINGTON COUNTY...WITH SNFL WINDING DOWN AS
SN SHWRS ELSEWHERE...AND THEN ENDING ACROSS ALL THE REGION SUN
NGT. THE BOTTOM LN WITH THIS COMPLEX SCENARIO IS THAT GIVEN THAT
THE MODEL TREND OF THE TRACKS OF BOTH SFC LOWS IS FURTHER E OVR
THE LAST FEW MODEL RUNS...ITS TO ERLY ATTM TO COMMIT TO ANY WINTER
STM WATCHES FOR EVEN SE PTNS OF THE FA ATTM. THIS IS NOT TO SAY
THAT THE MODEL TREND COULD NOT REVERSE SOMEWHAT WITHIN THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO...BUT GIVEN THE HEMISPHERIC LONG WV SET UP WITH THE
BOTTOMING OF THE S/WV ENERGY OVR THE ERN CAROLINA`S ACCOMPANIED
BY WEAK FAR N ATLC BLOCKING ASSOCIATED WITH AN NAO- TELECONNECTION
PATTERN...EVEN A WORST CASE SCENARIO WOULD ONLY SIG IMPACT THE SE
HLF OF THE FA...WHICH IS SUPPORTED ATTM BY ANALOGS WITH THE UNIV
OF ST LOUIS ANALOG WEB SITE.

FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE SECOND SFC LOW INTO THE ERN MARITIMES...
COLD...BRISK AND DRY CONDITONS CAN BE XPCTD ON MON AS WEAK SFC HI
PRES FROM THE W APCHS BY MON EVE. THIS SFC HI WILL CREST THE FA
MON NGT WITH SLACKENING WINDS. DESPITE THIS...THE ARRIVAL OF HI
CLDNSS ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER S/WV FROM THE GREAT LKS WILL NOT
ALLOW FOR MUCH RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS LATE MON NGT. WITH
MID AND LOW LVL WARM ADVCN UNDERWAY...SHWRS OR LGT RN FROM THIS
S/WV ON TUE MAY BRIEFLY START AS SN OR MIXED RN/SN ACROSS CNTRL
AND NRN PTNS OF THE FA ON TUE THEN CONT TUE NGT INTO WED AS BOTH
850 AND 925 MB TEMPS SLOWLY RISE.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE POSSIBLE MVFR CEILINGS TODAY, MAINLY
AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH
FRIDAY.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: VFR XPCTD FRI NGT...THEN LOWERING TO MVFR ALL
TAF SITES SAT WITH CLD CLGS AND VSBYS IN LGT RN/SN...THEN POSSIBLY
TO IFR SAT NGT INTO SUN IN CLGS AND MSLY SNFL. CONDITIONS IMPROVE
TO VFR CLGS DOWNEAST AND HI MVFR CLGS ACROSS NRN TAF SITES SUN NGT
INTO MON.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS
QUIET ON THE WATERS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. NO HEADLINES ARE
ANTICIPATED.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: WINDS GRADUALLY INCREASE TO POTENTIAL GALE
CONDITIONS FOR SAT INTO ERLY MON...BUT GIVEN HOW FAR OUT IN TM
THIS PTN OF THE FCST IS AND UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE STORM
TRACK...STILL TO ERLY FOR ANY WATCHES ATTM. KEPT CLOSE TO WW3 WV
GUIDANCE FOR FCST WV HTS FOR THESE PTNS OF THE FCST.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...GENTILE/HEWITT




000
FXUS61 KGYX 301546
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1146 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST INTO THE REGION TODAY INTO FRIDAY.
POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE REGION OVER THE
WEEKEND...BRINGING EVEN COLDER AIR AND THE CHANCE OF RAIN AND SOME
SNOW. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1145 AM...FORECAST UPDATED TO LINGER THE SPRINKLES A LITTLE LONGER AROUND
THE UPSLOPE AREAS...AND MODIFY MAXES A BIT...MAINLY IN THE MTNS
WHERE CURRENT OBS ARE NEAR FORECAST HIGHS. STARTING TO SEE BACK
EDGE OF THE MID-HIGH CLOUDS SHIFTING EAST...AND EXPECTING MORE
SUN ON THE COASTAL PLAIN THIS AFTERNOON.

10 AM...SOME QUICK TWEAKS TO THE FORECAST TO COVER THE SWATH OF
MID-HIGH CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE CWA...AND A FEW SPRINKLES IN
THE MTNS...THIS MORNING...AS WEAK 500MB WAVE MOVES THRU. SHOULD
SEE MORE SUN THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS
OUTSIDE THE MTNS.

645 AM UPDATE: ONLY CHANGES WERE TO TAKE OUT THE MENTION OF EARLY
MORNING PATCHY FOG IN THE NORTHERN VALLEYS. NO OTHER CHANGES
NEEDED ATTM.

PREV DISC:
HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH A NICE
DRY SLOT OF AIR MOVING ACROSS THE AREA ON WNW WINDS. MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS WHILE IN THE MOUNTAINS
SOME CLOUDS WILL LINGER. MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON MAX TEMPS
RANGING FROM THE MID 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 50S IN THE S
AND ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRES CONTINUES OVER THE
AREA TONIGHT AND INTO FRI. CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE NEXT DEVELOPING
SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY ALTHOUGH NO
PCPN IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY. USED A BLEND OF MODELS FOR TEMP
AND CLOUD FORECAST FOR TONIGHT AND FRI. GENERALLY MODELS WERE IN
CLOSE AGREEMENT THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE MEAN
TROUGH LATE FRIDAY IN THE DEEP SOUTH BEFORE EJECTING OFF THE
COAST OF THE CAROLINAS. THIS STRONG SHORT WAVE FINALLY PHASES
WITH THE MAIN TROUGH SOMETIME LATE SATURDAY NEAR NEW ENGLAND AS
THE WHOLE THING BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED.

AT THE SURFACE A COASTAL STORM DEEPENS RAPIDLY AND MOVES NORTH
AS WELL. THE GFS MSLP ENSEMBLE MEAN KEEPS IT EAST OF THE 40N/70W
BENCHMARK AS DO THE OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE GFS AND THE EUROPEAN.
HOWEVER...COLD TEMPERATURES WILL ALREADY BE IN PLACE OVER THE AREA
AND WRAP AROUND MOISTURE COMBINED WITH UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BE ENOUGH
FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. FARTHER EAST
LOCATIONS SUCH AS THE MIDCOAST WILL HAVE A HIGHER CHANCE FOR A
GLANCING BLOW. DECREASED THE QPF OVER THE REGION A BIT AS THE
STORM CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST WITH EACH NEW MODEL RUN... HOWEVER
THE KENNEBEC VALLEY AND MIDCOAST REGIONS STILL SHOULD SEE 1-2" OF
SNOW. LOCATIONS IN BETWEEN WILL LIKELY SEE A FEW TENTHS OF AN
INCH. THE SNOW WILL MELT OFF QUICKLY AS HIGHS REACH THE 40S ON
SUNDAY.

WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE STORM ARE ANOMALOUSLY STRONG...BOTH
THE U AND THE V COMPONENTS AT 925MB AND 850MB. THIS WILL PROBABLY
RESULT IN GALES OVER THE BAYS TO STRONG GALES OR EVEN STORM FORCE
WINDS OVER THE OUTER GULF OF MAINE ON SUNDAY. IN ADDITION A WIND
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE COAST.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT LOOK ESPECIALLY CHILLY FOR
OVERNIGHT LOWS AS MUCH COLDER AIR FILTERS IN ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE COASTAL SYSTEM. IN ADDITION...PWATS TAKE A NOSEDIVE SUNDAY
NIGHT TO NEAR 0.10" OR VERY CLOSE TO THE KNOWN MINIMUM FOR THIS
STATION FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...HELPING RADIATIONAL COOLING OUT
TREMENDOUSLY. HAVE GONE BELOW GUIDANCE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR THIS
REASON.

ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES NORTH OF THE REGION TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...SOME EARLY MORNING VLY FOG WILL ALLOW IFR CONDS INTO
THE MORNING OTRW MOST AREAS WILL BE VFR TODAY INTO FRI. BY LATE
FRI SOME MVFR CIGS MAY DEVELOP AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES.

LONG TERM...COASTAL LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTH ON SATURDAY BRINGING
CEILINGS DOWN BELOW VFR. MVFR AND EVENTUALLY IFR CIGS/VSBYS MOVE
INTO THE AREA AS RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS SPREAD NORTH. IFR VSBYS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SNOW. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT BACK TO VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATE SUN THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BLO SCA LVLS THRU FRI.

LONG TERM...A DEVELOPING COASTAL STORM WILL AFFECT THE WATERS OVER
THE WEEKEND. THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY...BUT CONSECUTIVE
MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN MOVING THE STORM OUT FARTHER. CURRENTLY THE
STORM PASSES OUTSIDE THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK. HOWEVER GALES APPEAR
LIKELY OVER THE BAYS WITH STORM FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE OVER THE
OUTER WATERS. SEAS WILL ALSO CLIMB TO 8-12 FT IN THE OUTER WATERS.
WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA BY MONDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...




000
FXUS61 KCAR 301422
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1022 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
FAIR AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY INTO FRIDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE REGION. A COASTAL STORM WILL LIKELY
IMPACT MOSTLY SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE REGION BY LATE SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1015 AM UPDATE...ADJUSTED THE SKY CONDITIONS TO GO W/MORE CLOUDS
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA BASED 12Z CAR
SOUNDING SHOWING DEEP RH IN THE LLVLS(BELOW 700MBS). STILL
EXPECTED NW WINDS TO KEEP THE DOWNEAST AND COAST W/LESS CLOUDS
THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO DOWNSLOPE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE REGION AWAITS THE ARRIVAL OF THE NEXT STORM
SYSTEM. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY
TODAY, BUT A LAYER OF MOISTURE AT 850-900 MB ALONG WITH SOME
DAYTIME MIXING WILL ALLOW SOME STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS TO DEVELOP
THIS MORNING. WE`LL SEE A BIT OF CLEARING AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT,
BUT CLOUDS WILL ONCE AGAIN INCREASE FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE TREKS
EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL,
WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 40S NORTH TO THE LOWER 50S SOUTH.
TONIGHT`S TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOL, ESPECIALLY IN THE SAINT
JOHN VALLEY WHERE UPPER 20S ARE POSSIBLE. ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTH,
LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S ARE EXPECTED, WHILE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST
MAINE WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S; UPPER 30S RIGHT
ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS APPEAR TO BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE S/WV ENERGY FROM
CNTRL CAN THAT CONT TO DIG SSE INTO THE CAROLINA`S BY SAT MORN. A
WEAK LEAD S/WV ALLOWS A FIRST SFC LOW TO FORM EAST OF THE VA CAPE
ON THE POLAR FRONT WELL AHEAD OF MAIN ENERGY WITH THE DEVELOPING
UPPER LOW. THIS INITIAL LOW WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR BRINGING THE
INITIAL CLDNSS AND MSLY LGT PRECIP TO THE REGION BY SAT AFTN INTO
SAT NGT...WITH MORE SIG PRECIP TO SE PTNS OF THE FA SAT NGT.
PRECIP...WHICH WILL BE LGT AND UNORGANIZED INTO ERLY SAT AFTN...
WILL FALL MSLY AS RN OR A MIX OF RN AND SN...WITH BOTH LLVL COLD
ADVCN DYNAMIC COOLING FROM ALF RESULTING IN A CHGOVR TO ALL SN
DURG THE EVE HRS TO ALL REGIONS N OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND EVEN
ALG THE COAST BY LATE SAT NGT. IF THE CONSENSUS OF FCST QPF IS
ACCURATE FROM THIS FAR OUT...THE BEST POTENTIAL OF SIG SNFL WITH
THIS FIRST WV OF LOW PRES AS IT TRACKS E OF NOVA SCOTIA WILL BE
OVR INTERIOR SE PTNS OF THE REGION WHERE SVRL INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE...WITH PROGRESSIVELY LESSER SNFL N AND W...BUT WE
EMPHASIZE IT IS STILL ERLY TO COUNT ON ANY PARTICULAR SCENARIO.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BOTH THE 00Z DTMNSTC GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE THAT AFT THE PASSAGE
OF THE FIRST SFC LOW JUST E OF NOVA SCOTIA...THE POLAR FRONT MAY
BE PUSHED FURTHER SE OFF THE ERN U.S. COAST...RESULTING IN THE
SECOND SFC LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN UPPER LOW SUN TO BE FCST
TO TRACK ALG OR A LITTLE FURTHER E THAN THE FIRST SFC LOW...WHICH
IS SIG FURTHER E THAN ADVERTISED BY THE MODELS YSTDY ATTM. IF THIS
SCENARIO WERE TO PLAY OUT...THEN ANY ADDITIONAL SIG SNFL ON SUN
WOULD BE LMTD TO SE WASHINGTON COUNTY...WITH SNFL WINDING DOWN AS
SN SHWRS ELSEWHERE...AND THEN ENDING ACROSS ALL THE REGION SUN
NGT. THE BOTTOM LN WITH THIS COMPLEX SCENARIO IS THAT GIVEN THAT
THE MODEL TREND OF THE TRACKS OF BOTH SFC LOWS IS FURTHER E OVR
THE LAST FEW MODEL RUNS...ITS TO ERLY ATTM TO COMMIT TO ANY WINTER
STM WATCHES FOR EVEN SE PTNS OF THE FA ATTM. THIS IS NOT TO SAY
THAT THE MODEL TREND COULD NOT REVERSE SOMEWHAT WITHIN THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO...BUT GIVEN THE HEMISPHERIC LONG WV SET UP WITH THE
BOTTOMING OF THE S/WV ENERGY OVR THE ERN CAROLINA`S ACCOMPANIED
BY WEAK FAR N ATLC BLOCKING ASSOCIATED WITH AN NAO- TELECONNECTION
PATTERN...EVEN A WORST CASE SCENARIO WOULD ONLY SIG IMPACT THE SE
HLF OF THE FA...WHICH IS SUPPORTED ATTM BY ANALOGS WITH THE UNIV
OF ST LOUIS ANALOG WEB SITE.

FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE SECOND SFC LOW INTO THE ERN MARITIMES...
COLD...BRISK AND DRY CONDITONS CAN BE XPCTD ON MON AS WEAK SFC HI
PRES FROM THE W APCHS BY MON EVE. THIS SFC HI WILL CREST THE FA
MON NGT WITH SLACKENING WINDS. DESPITE THIS...THE ARRIVAL OF HI
CLDNSS ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER S/WV FROM THE GREAT LKS WILL NOT
ALLOW FOR MUCH RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS LATE MON NGT. WITH
MID AND LOW LVL WARM ADVCN UNDERWAY...SHWRS OR LGT RN FROM THIS
S/WV ON TUE MAY BRIEFLY START AS SN OR MIXED RN/SN ACROSS CNTRL
AND NRN PTNS OF THE FA ON TUE THEN CONT TUE NGT INTO WED AS BOTH
850 AND 925 MB TEMPS SLOWLY RISE.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE POSSIBLE MVFR CEILINGS TODAY, MAINLY
AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH
FRIDAY.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: VFR XPCTD FRI NGT...THEN LOWERING TO MVFR ALL
TAF SITES SAT WITH CLD CLGS AND VSBYS IN LGT RN/SN...THEN POSSIBLY
TO IFR SAT NGT INTO SUN IN CLGS AND MSLY SNFL. CONDITIONS IMPROVE
TO VFR CLGS DOWNEAST AND HI MVFR CLGS ACROSS NRN TAF SITES SUN NGT
INTO MON.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS
QUIET ON THE WATERS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. NO HEADLINES ARE
ANTICIPATED.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: WINDS GRADUALLY INCREASE TO POTENTIAL GALE
CONDITIONS FOR SAT INTO ERLY MON...BUT GIVEN HOW FAR OUT IN TM
THIS PTN OF THE FCST IS AND UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE STORM
TRACK...STILL TO ERLY FOR ANY WATCHES ATTM. KEPT CLOSE TO WW3 WV
GUIDANCE FOR FCST WV HTS FOR THESE PTNS OF THE FCST.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HASTINGS/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...HASTINGS/HEWITT/VJN
MARINE...HASTINGS/HEWITT/VJN




000
FXUS61 KGYX 301405
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1005 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST INTO THE REGION TODAY INTO FRIDAY.
POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE REGION OVER THE
WEEKEND...BRINGING EVEN COLDER AIR AND THE CHANCE OF RAIN AND SOME
SNOW. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
10 AM...SOME QUICK TWEAKS TO THE FORECAST TO COVER THE SWATH OF
MID-HIGH CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE CWA...AND A FEW SPRINKLES IN
THE MTNS...THIS MORNING...AS WEAK 500MB WAVE MOVES THRU. SHOULD
SEE MORE SUN THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS
OUTSIDE THE MTNS.

645 AM UPDATE: ONLY CHANGES WERE TO TAKE OUT THE MENTION OF EARLY
MORNING PATCHY FOG IN THE NORTHERN VALLEYS. NO OTHER CHANGES
NEEDED ATTM.

PREV DISC:
HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH A NICE
DRY SLOT OF AIR MOVING ACROSS THE AREA ON WNW WINDS. MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS WHILE IN THE MOUNTAINS
SOME CLOUDS WILL LINGER. MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON MAX TEMPS
RANGING FROM THE MID 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 50S IN THE S
AND ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRES CONTINUES OVER THE
AREA TONIGHT AND INTO FRI. CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE NEXT DEVELOPING
SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY ALTHOUGH NO
PCPN IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY. USED A BLEND OF MODELS FOR TEMP
AND CLOUD FORECAST FOR TONIGHT AND FRI. GENERALLY MODELS WERE IN
CLOSE AGREEMENT THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE MEAN
TROUGH LATE FRIDAY IN THE DEEP SOUTH BEFORE EJECTING OFF THE
COAST OF THE CAROLINAS. THIS STRONG SHORT WAVE FINALLY PHASES
WITH THE MAIN TROUGH SOMETIME LATE SATURDAY NEAR NEW ENGLAND AS
THE WHOLE THING BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED.

AT THE SURFACE A COASTAL STORM DEEPENS RAPIDLY AND MOVES NORTH
AS WELL. THE GFS MSLP ENSEMBLE MEAN KEEPS IT EAST OF THE 40N/70W
BENCHMARK AS DO THE OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE GFS AND THE EUROPEAN.
HOWEVER...COLD TEMPERATURES WILL ALREADY BE IN PLACE OVER THE AREA
AND WRAP AROUND MOISTURE COMBINED WITH UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BE ENOUGH
FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. FARTHER EAST
LOCATIONS SUCH AS THE MIDCOAST WILL HAVE A HIGHER CHANCE FOR A
GLANCING BLOW. DECREASED THE QPF OVER THE REGION A BIT AS THE
STORM CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST WITH EACH NEW MODEL RUN... HOWEVER
THE KENNEBEC VALLEY AND MIDCOAST REGIONS STILL SHOULD SEE 1-2" OF
SNOW. LOCATIONS IN BETWEEN WILL LIKELY SEE A FEW TENTHS OF AN
INCH. THE SNOW WILL MELT OFF QUICKLY AS HIGHS REACH THE 40S ON
SUNDAY.

WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE STORM ARE ANOMALOUSLY STRONG...BOTH
THE U AND THE V COMPONENTS AT 925MB AND 850MB. THIS WILL PROBABLY
RESULT IN GALES OVER THE BAYS TO STRONG GALES OR EVEN STORM FORCE
WINDS OVER THE OUTER GULF OF MAINE ON SUNDAY. IN ADDITION A WIND
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE COAST.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT LOOK ESPECIALLY CHILLY FOR
OVERNIGHT LOWS AS MUCH COLDER AIR FILTERS IN ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE COASTAL SYSTEM. IN ADDITION...PWATS TAKE A NOSEDIVE SUNDAY
NIGHT TO NEAR 0.10" OR VERY CLOSE TO THE KNOWN MINIMUM FOR THIS
STATION FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...HELPING RADIATIONAL COOLING OUT
TREMENDOUSLY. HAVE GONE BELOW GUIDANCE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR THIS
REASON.

ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES NORTH OF THE REGION TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...SOME EARLY MORNING VLY FOG WILL ALLOW IFR CONDS INTO
THE MORNING OTRW MOST AREAS WILL BE VFR TODAY INTO FRI. BY LATE
FRI SOME MVFR CIGS MAY DEVELOP AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES.

LONG TERM...COASTAL LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTH ON SATURDAY BRINGING
CEILINGS DOWN BELOW VFR. MVFR AND EVENTUALLY IFR CIGS/VSBYS MOVE
INTO THE AREA AS RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS SPREAD NORTH. IFR VSBYS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SNOW. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT BACK TO VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATE SUN THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BLO SCA LVLS THRU FRI.

LONG TERM...A DEVELOPING COASTAL STORM WILL AFFECT THE WATERS OVER
THE WEEKEND. THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY...BUT CONSECUTIVE
MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN MOVING THE STORM OUT FARTHER. CURRENTLY THE
STORM PASSES OUTSIDE THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK. HOWEVER GALES APPEAR
LIKELY OVER THE BAYS WITH STORM FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE OVER THE
OUTER WATERS. SEAS WILL ALSO CLIMB TO 8-12 FT IN THE OUTER WATERS.
WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA BY MONDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...




000
FXUS61 KGYX 301052
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
652 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST INTO THE REGION TODAY INTO FRIDAY.
POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE REGION OVER THE
WEEKEND...BRINGING EVEN COLDER AIR AND THE CHANCE OF RAIN AND SOME
SNOW. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
645 AM UPDATE: ONLY CHANGES WERE TO TAKE OUT THE MENTION OF EARLY
MORNING PATCHY FOG IN THE NORTHERN VALLEYS. NO OTHER CHANGES
NEEDED ATTM.

PREV DISC:
HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH A NICE
DRY SLOT OF AIR MOVING ACROSS THE AREA ON WNW WINDS. MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS WHILE IN THE MOUNTAINS
SOME CLOUDS WILL LINGER. MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON MAX TEMPS
RANGING FROM THE MID 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 50S IN THE S
AND ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND FRIDAY/... HIGH PRES CONTINUES OVER THE
AREA TONIGHT AND INTO FRI. CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE NEXT DEVELOPING
SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY ALTHOUGH NO
PCPN IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY. USED A BLEND OF MODELS FOR TEMP
AND CLOUD FORECAST FOR TONIGHT AND FRI. GENERALLY MODELS WERE IN
CLOSE AGREEMENT THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE MEAN
TROUGH LATE FRIDAY IN THE DEEP SOUTH BEFORE EJECTING OFF THE
COAST OF THE CAROLINAS. THIS STRONG SHORT WAVE FINALLY PHASES
WITH THE MAIN TROUGH SOMETIME LATE SATURDAY NEAR NEW ENGLAND AS
THE WHOLE THING BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED.

AT THE SURFACE A COASTAL STORM DEEPENS RAPIDLY AND MOVES NORTH
AS WELL. THE GFS MSLP ENSEMBLE MEAN KEEPS IT EAST OF THE 40N/70W
BENCHMARK AS DO THE OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE GFS AND THE EUROPEAN.
HOWEVER...COLD TEMPERATURES WILL ALREADY BE IN PLACE OVER THE AREA
AND WRAP AROUND MOISTURE COMBINED WITH UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BE ENOUGH
FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. FARTHER EAST
LOCATIONS SUCH AS THE MIDCOAST WILL HAVE A HIGHER CHANCE FOR A
GLANCING BLOW. DECREASED THE QPF OVER THE REGION A BIT AS THE
STORM CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST WITH EACH NEW MODEL RUN... HOWEVER
THE KENNEBEC VALLEY AND MIDCOAST REGIONS STILL SHOULD SEE 1-2" OF
SNOW. LOCATIONS IN BETWEEN WILL LIKELY SEE A FEW TENTHS OF AN
INCH. THE SNOW WILL MELT OFF QUICKLY AS HIGHS REACH THE 40S ON
SUNDAY.

WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE STORM ARE ANOMALOUSLY STRONG...BOTH
THE U AND THE V COMPONENTS AT 925MB AND 850MB. THIS WILL PROBABLY
RESULT IN GALES OVER THE BAYS TO STRONG GALES OR EVEN STORM FORCE
WINDS OVER THE OUTER GULF OF MAINE ON SUNDAY. IN ADDITION A WIND
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE COAST.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT LOOK ESPECIALLY CHILLY FOR
OVERNIGHT LOWS AS MUCH COLDER AIR FILTERS IN ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE COASTAL SYSTEM. IN ADDITION...PWATS TAKE A NOSEDIVE SUNDAY
NIGHT TO NEAR 0.10" OR VERY CLOSE TO THE KNOWN MINIMUM FOR THIS
STATION FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...HELPING RADIATIONAL COOLING OUT
TREMENDOUSLY. HAVE GONE BELOW GUIDANCE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR THIS
REASON.

ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES NORTH OF THE REGION TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...SOME EARLY MORNING VLY FOG WILL ALLOW IFR CONDS INTO
THE MORNING OTRW MOST AREAS WILL BE VFR TODAY INTO FRI. BY LATE
FRI SOME MVFR CIGS MAY DEVELOP AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES.

LONG TERM...COASTAL LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTH ON SATURDAY BRINGING
CEILINGS DOWN BELOW VFR. MVFR AND EVENTUALLY IFR CIGS/VSBYS MOVE
INTO THE AREA AS RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS SPREAD NORTH. IFR VSBYS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SNOW. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT BACK TO VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATE SUN THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BLO SCA LVLS THRU FRI.

LONG TERM...A DEVELOPING COASTAL STORM WILL AFFECT THE WATERS OVER
THE WEEKEND. THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY...BUT CONSECUTIVE
MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN MOVING THE STORM OUT FARTHER. CURRENTLY THE
STORM PASSES OUTSIDE THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK. HOWEVER GALES APPEAR
LIKELY OVER THE BAYS WITH STORM FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE OVER THE
OUTER WATERS. SEAS WILL ALSO CLIMB TO 8-12 FT IN THE OUTER WATERS.
WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA BY MONDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KGYX 301052
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
652 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST INTO THE REGION TODAY INTO FRIDAY.
POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE REGION OVER THE
WEEKEND...BRINGING EVEN COLDER AIR AND THE CHANCE OF RAIN AND SOME
SNOW. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
645 AM UPDATE: ONLY CHANGES WERE TO TAKE OUT THE MENTION OF EARLY
MORNING PATCHY FOG IN THE NORTHERN VALLEYS. NO OTHER CHANGES
NEEDED ATTM.

PREV DISC:
HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH A NICE
DRY SLOT OF AIR MOVING ACROSS THE AREA ON WNW WINDS. MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS WHILE IN THE MOUNTAINS
SOME CLOUDS WILL LINGER. MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON MAX TEMPS
RANGING FROM THE MID 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 50S IN THE S
AND ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND FRIDAY/... HIGH PRES CONTINUES OVER THE
AREA TONIGHT AND INTO FRI. CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE NEXT DEVELOPING
SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY ALTHOUGH NO
PCPN IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY. USED A BLEND OF MODELS FOR TEMP
AND CLOUD FORECAST FOR TONIGHT AND FRI. GENERALLY MODELS WERE IN
CLOSE AGREEMENT THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE MEAN
TROUGH LATE FRIDAY IN THE DEEP SOUTH BEFORE EJECTING OFF THE
COAST OF THE CAROLINAS. THIS STRONG SHORT WAVE FINALLY PHASES
WITH THE MAIN TROUGH SOMETIME LATE SATURDAY NEAR NEW ENGLAND AS
THE WHOLE THING BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED.

AT THE SURFACE A COASTAL STORM DEEPENS RAPIDLY AND MOVES NORTH
AS WELL. THE GFS MSLP ENSEMBLE MEAN KEEPS IT EAST OF THE 40N/70W
BENCHMARK AS DO THE OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE GFS AND THE EUROPEAN.
HOWEVER...COLD TEMPERATURES WILL ALREADY BE IN PLACE OVER THE AREA
AND WRAP AROUND MOISTURE COMBINED WITH UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BE ENOUGH
FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. FARTHER EAST
LOCATIONS SUCH AS THE MIDCOAST WILL HAVE A HIGHER CHANCE FOR A
GLANCING BLOW. DECREASED THE QPF OVER THE REGION A BIT AS THE
STORM CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST WITH EACH NEW MODEL RUN... HOWEVER
THE KENNEBEC VALLEY AND MIDCOAST REGIONS STILL SHOULD SEE 1-2" OF
SNOW. LOCATIONS IN BETWEEN WILL LIKELY SEE A FEW TENTHS OF AN
INCH. THE SNOW WILL MELT OFF QUICKLY AS HIGHS REACH THE 40S ON
SUNDAY.

WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE STORM ARE ANOMALOUSLY STRONG...BOTH
THE U AND THE V COMPONENTS AT 925MB AND 850MB. THIS WILL PROBABLY
RESULT IN GALES OVER THE BAYS TO STRONG GALES OR EVEN STORM FORCE
WINDS OVER THE OUTER GULF OF MAINE ON SUNDAY. IN ADDITION A WIND
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE COAST.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT LOOK ESPECIALLY CHILLY FOR
OVERNIGHT LOWS AS MUCH COLDER AIR FILTERS IN ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE COASTAL SYSTEM. IN ADDITION...PWATS TAKE A NOSEDIVE SUNDAY
NIGHT TO NEAR 0.10" OR VERY CLOSE TO THE KNOWN MINIMUM FOR THIS
STATION FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...HELPING RADIATIONAL COOLING OUT
TREMENDOUSLY. HAVE GONE BELOW GUIDANCE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR THIS
REASON.

ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES NORTH OF THE REGION TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...SOME EARLY MORNING VLY FOG WILL ALLOW IFR CONDS INTO
THE MORNING OTRW MOST AREAS WILL BE VFR TODAY INTO FRI. BY LATE
FRI SOME MVFR CIGS MAY DEVELOP AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES.

LONG TERM...COASTAL LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTH ON SATURDAY BRINGING
CEILINGS DOWN BELOW VFR. MVFR AND EVENTUALLY IFR CIGS/VSBYS MOVE
INTO THE AREA AS RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS SPREAD NORTH. IFR VSBYS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SNOW. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT BACK TO VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATE SUN THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BLO SCA LVLS THRU FRI.

LONG TERM...A DEVELOPING COASTAL STORM WILL AFFECT THE WATERS OVER
THE WEEKEND. THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY...BUT CONSECUTIVE
MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN MOVING THE STORM OUT FARTHER. CURRENTLY THE
STORM PASSES OUTSIDE THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK. HOWEVER GALES APPEAR
LIKELY OVER THE BAYS WITH STORM FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE OVER THE
OUTER WATERS. SEAS WILL ALSO CLIMB TO 8-12 FT IN THE OUTER WATERS.
WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA BY MONDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KGYX 301052
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
652 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST INTO THE REGION TODAY INTO FRIDAY.
POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE REGION OVER THE
WEEKEND...BRINGING EVEN COLDER AIR AND THE CHANCE OF RAIN AND SOME
SNOW. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
645 AM UPDATE: ONLY CHANGES WERE TO TAKE OUT THE MENTION OF EARLY
MORNING PATCHY FOG IN THE NORTHERN VALLEYS. NO OTHER CHANGES
NEEDED ATTM.

PREV DISC:
HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH A NICE
DRY SLOT OF AIR MOVING ACROSS THE AREA ON WNW WINDS. MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS WHILE IN THE MOUNTAINS
SOME CLOUDS WILL LINGER. MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON MAX TEMPS
RANGING FROM THE MID 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 50S IN THE S
AND ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND FRIDAY/... HIGH PRES CONTINUES OVER THE
AREA TONIGHT AND INTO FRI. CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE NEXT DEVELOPING
SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY ALTHOUGH NO
PCPN IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY. USED A BLEND OF MODELS FOR TEMP
AND CLOUD FORECAST FOR TONIGHT AND FRI. GENERALLY MODELS WERE IN
CLOSE AGREEMENT THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE MEAN
TROUGH LATE FRIDAY IN THE DEEP SOUTH BEFORE EJECTING OFF THE
COAST OF THE CAROLINAS. THIS STRONG SHORT WAVE FINALLY PHASES
WITH THE MAIN TROUGH SOMETIME LATE SATURDAY NEAR NEW ENGLAND AS
THE WHOLE THING BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED.

AT THE SURFACE A COASTAL STORM DEEPENS RAPIDLY AND MOVES NORTH
AS WELL. THE GFS MSLP ENSEMBLE MEAN KEEPS IT EAST OF THE 40N/70W
BENCHMARK AS DO THE OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE GFS AND THE EUROPEAN.
HOWEVER...COLD TEMPERATURES WILL ALREADY BE IN PLACE OVER THE AREA
AND WRAP AROUND MOISTURE COMBINED WITH UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BE ENOUGH
FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. FARTHER EAST
LOCATIONS SUCH AS THE MIDCOAST WILL HAVE A HIGHER CHANCE FOR A
GLANCING BLOW. DECREASED THE QPF OVER THE REGION A BIT AS THE
STORM CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST WITH EACH NEW MODEL RUN... HOWEVER
THE KENNEBEC VALLEY AND MIDCOAST REGIONS STILL SHOULD SEE 1-2" OF
SNOW. LOCATIONS IN BETWEEN WILL LIKELY SEE A FEW TENTHS OF AN
INCH. THE SNOW WILL MELT OFF QUICKLY AS HIGHS REACH THE 40S ON
SUNDAY.

WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE STORM ARE ANOMALOUSLY STRONG...BOTH
THE U AND THE V COMPONENTS AT 925MB AND 850MB. THIS WILL PROBABLY
RESULT IN GALES OVER THE BAYS TO STRONG GALES OR EVEN STORM FORCE
WINDS OVER THE OUTER GULF OF MAINE ON SUNDAY. IN ADDITION A WIND
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE COAST.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT LOOK ESPECIALLY CHILLY FOR
OVERNIGHT LOWS AS MUCH COLDER AIR FILTERS IN ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE COASTAL SYSTEM. IN ADDITION...PWATS TAKE A NOSEDIVE SUNDAY
NIGHT TO NEAR 0.10" OR VERY CLOSE TO THE KNOWN MINIMUM FOR THIS
STATION FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...HELPING RADIATIONAL COOLING OUT
TREMENDOUSLY. HAVE GONE BELOW GUIDANCE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR THIS
REASON.

ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES NORTH OF THE REGION TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...SOME EARLY MORNING VLY FOG WILL ALLOW IFR CONDS INTO
THE MORNING OTRW MOST AREAS WILL BE VFR TODAY INTO FRI. BY LATE
FRI SOME MVFR CIGS MAY DEVELOP AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES.

LONG TERM...COASTAL LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTH ON SATURDAY BRINGING
CEILINGS DOWN BELOW VFR. MVFR AND EVENTUALLY IFR CIGS/VSBYS MOVE
INTO THE AREA AS RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS SPREAD NORTH. IFR VSBYS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SNOW. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT BACK TO VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATE SUN THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BLO SCA LVLS THRU FRI.

LONG TERM...A DEVELOPING COASTAL STORM WILL AFFECT THE WATERS OVER
THE WEEKEND. THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY...BUT CONSECUTIVE
MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN MOVING THE STORM OUT FARTHER. CURRENTLY THE
STORM PASSES OUTSIDE THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK. HOWEVER GALES APPEAR
LIKELY OVER THE BAYS WITH STORM FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE OVER THE
OUTER WATERS. SEAS WILL ALSO CLIMB TO 8-12 FT IN THE OUTER WATERS.
WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA BY MONDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KGYX 301052
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
652 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST INTO THE REGION TODAY INTO FRIDAY.
POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE REGION OVER THE
WEEKEND...BRINGING EVEN COLDER AIR AND THE CHANCE OF RAIN AND SOME
SNOW. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
645 AM UPDATE: ONLY CHANGES WERE TO TAKE OUT THE MENTION OF EARLY
MORNING PATCHY FOG IN THE NORTHERN VALLEYS. NO OTHER CHANGES
NEEDED ATTM.

PREV DISC:
HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH A NICE
DRY SLOT OF AIR MOVING ACROSS THE AREA ON WNW WINDS. MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS WHILE IN THE MOUNTAINS
SOME CLOUDS WILL LINGER. MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON MAX TEMPS
RANGING FROM THE MID 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 50S IN THE S
AND ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND FRIDAY/... HIGH PRES CONTINUES OVER THE
AREA TONIGHT AND INTO FRI. CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE NEXT DEVELOPING
SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY ALTHOUGH NO
PCPN IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY. USED A BLEND OF MODELS FOR TEMP
AND CLOUD FORECAST FOR TONIGHT AND FRI. GENERALLY MODELS WERE IN
CLOSE AGREEMENT THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE MEAN
TROUGH LATE FRIDAY IN THE DEEP SOUTH BEFORE EJECTING OFF THE
COAST OF THE CAROLINAS. THIS STRONG SHORT WAVE FINALLY PHASES
WITH THE MAIN TROUGH SOMETIME LATE SATURDAY NEAR NEW ENGLAND AS
THE WHOLE THING BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED.

AT THE SURFACE A COASTAL STORM DEEPENS RAPIDLY AND MOVES NORTH
AS WELL. THE GFS MSLP ENSEMBLE MEAN KEEPS IT EAST OF THE 40N/70W
BENCHMARK AS DO THE OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE GFS AND THE EUROPEAN.
HOWEVER...COLD TEMPERATURES WILL ALREADY BE IN PLACE OVER THE AREA
AND WRAP AROUND MOISTURE COMBINED WITH UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BE ENOUGH
FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. FARTHER EAST
LOCATIONS SUCH AS THE MIDCOAST WILL HAVE A HIGHER CHANCE FOR A
GLANCING BLOW. DECREASED THE QPF OVER THE REGION A BIT AS THE
STORM CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST WITH EACH NEW MODEL RUN... HOWEVER
THE KENNEBEC VALLEY AND MIDCOAST REGIONS STILL SHOULD SEE 1-2" OF
SNOW. LOCATIONS IN BETWEEN WILL LIKELY SEE A FEW TENTHS OF AN
INCH. THE SNOW WILL MELT OFF QUICKLY AS HIGHS REACH THE 40S ON
SUNDAY.

WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE STORM ARE ANOMALOUSLY STRONG...BOTH
THE U AND THE V COMPONENTS AT 925MB AND 850MB. THIS WILL PROBABLY
RESULT IN GALES OVER THE BAYS TO STRONG GALES OR EVEN STORM FORCE
WINDS OVER THE OUTER GULF OF MAINE ON SUNDAY. IN ADDITION A WIND
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE COAST.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT LOOK ESPECIALLY CHILLY FOR
OVERNIGHT LOWS AS MUCH COLDER AIR FILTERS IN ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE COASTAL SYSTEM. IN ADDITION...PWATS TAKE A NOSEDIVE SUNDAY
NIGHT TO NEAR 0.10" OR VERY CLOSE TO THE KNOWN MINIMUM FOR THIS
STATION FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...HELPING RADIATIONAL COOLING OUT
TREMENDOUSLY. HAVE GONE BELOW GUIDANCE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR THIS
REASON.

ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES NORTH OF THE REGION TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...SOME EARLY MORNING VLY FOG WILL ALLOW IFR CONDS INTO
THE MORNING OTRW MOST AREAS WILL BE VFR TODAY INTO FRI. BY LATE
FRI SOME MVFR CIGS MAY DEVELOP AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES.

LONG TERM...COASTAL LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTH ON SATURDAY BRINGING
CEILINGS DOWN BELOW VFR. MVFR AND EVENTUALLY IFR CIGS/VSBYS MOVE
INTO THE AREA AS RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS SPREAD NORTH. IFR VSBYS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SNOW. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT BACK TO VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATE SUN THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BLO SCA LVLS THRU FRI.

LONG TERM...A DEVELOPING COASTAL STORM WILL AFFECT THE WATERS OVER
THE WEEKEND. THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY...BUT CONSECUTIVE
MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN MOVING THE STORM OUT FARTHER. CURRENTLY THE
STORM PASSES OUTSIDE THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK. HOWEVER GALES APPEAR
LIKELY OVER THE BAYS WITH STORM FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE OVER THE
OUTER WATERS. SEAS WILL ALSO CLIMB TO 8-12 FT IN THE OUTER WATERS.
WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA BY MONDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KCAR 301035
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
635 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
FAIR AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY INTO FRIDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE REGION. A COASTAL STORM WILL LIKELY
IMPACT MOSTLY SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE REGION BY LATE SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
635 AM UPDATE...ONLY CHANGE TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING WAS TO
REMOVE FOG WORDING. NO SITES ARE REPORTING REDUCED VISIBILITY AT
THE MOMENT, AND WITH CLOUDS ON THE INCREASE, FEEL THAT FOG THAT
DOES DEVELOP WILL BE LOCALIZED AND BRIEF. NO OTHER CHANGES WERE
NEEDED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE REGION AWAITS THE ARRIVAL OF THE NEXT STORM
SYSTEM. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY
TODAY, BUT A LAYER OF MOISTURE AT 850-900 MB ALONG WITH SOME
DAYTIME MIXING WILL ALLOW SOME STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS TO DEVELOP
THIS MORNING. WE`LL SEE A BIT OF CLEARING AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT,
BUT CLOUDS WILL ONCE AGAIN INCREASE FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE TREKS
EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL,
WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 40S NORTH TO THE LOWER 50S SOUTH.
TONIGHT`S TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOL, ESPECIALLY IN THE SAINT
JOHN VALLEY WHERE UPPER 20S ARE POSSIBLE. ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTH,
LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S ARE EXPECTED, WHILE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST
MAINE WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S; UPPER 30S RIGHT
ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS APPEAR TO BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE S/WV ENERGY FROM
CNTRL CAN THAT CONT TO DIG SSE INTO THE CAROLINA`S BY SAT MORN. A
WEAK LEAD S/WV ALLOWS A FIRST SFC LOW TO FORM EAST OF THE VA CAPE
ON THE POLAR FRONT WELL AHEAD OF MAIN ENERGY WITH THE DEVELOPING
UPPER LOW. THIS INITIAL LOW WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR BRINGING THE
INITIAL CLDNSS AND MSLY LGT PRECIP TO THE REGION BY SAT AFTN INTO
SAT NGT...WITH MORE SIG PRECIP TO SE PTNS OF THE FA SAT NGT.
PRECIP...WHICH WILL BE LGT AND UNORGANIZED INTO ERLY SAT AFTN...
WILL FALL MSLY AS RN OR A MIX OF RN AND SN...WITH BOTH LLVL COLD
ADVCN DYNAMIC COOLING FROM ALF RESULTING IN A CHGOVR TO ALL SN
DURG THE EVE HRS TO ALL REGIONS N OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND EVEN
ALG THE COAST BY LATE SAT NGT. IF THE CONSENSUS OF FCST QPF IS
ACCURATE FROM THIS FAR OUT...THE BEST POTENTIAL OF SIG SNFL WITH
THIS FIRST WV OF LOW PRES AS IT TRACKS E OF NOVA SCOTIA WILL BE
OVR INTERIOR SE PTNS OF THE REGION WHERE SVRL INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE...WITH PROGRESSIVELY LESSER SNFL N AND W...BUT WE
EMPHASIZE IT IS STILL ERLY TO COUNT ON ANY PARTICULAR SCENARIO.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BOTH THE 00Z DTMNSTC GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE THAT AFT THE PASSAGE
OF THE FIRST SFC LOW JUST E OF NOVA SCOTIA...THE POLAR FRONT MAY
BE PUSHED FURTHER SE OFF THE ERN U.S. COAST...RESULTING IN THE
SECOND SFC LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN UPPER LOW SUN TO BE FCST
TO TRACK ALG OR A LITTLE FURTHER E THAN THE FIRST SFC LOW...WHICH
IS SIG FURTHER E THAN ADVERTISED BY THE MODELS YSTDY ATTM. IF THIS
SCENARIO WERE TO PLAY OUT...THEN ANY ADDITIONAL SIG SNFL ON SUN
WOULD BE LMTD TO SE WASHINGTON COUNTY...WITH SNFL WINDING DOWN AS
SN SHWRS ELSEWHERE...AND THEN ENDING ACROSS ALL THE REGION SUN
NGT. THE BOTTOM LN WITH THIS COMPLEX SCENARIO IS THAT GIVEN THAT
THE MODEL TREND OF THE TRACKS OF BOTH SFC LOWS IS FURTHER E OVR
THE LAST FEW MODEL RUNS...ITS TO ERLY ATTM TO COMMIT TO ANY WINTER
STM WATCHES FOR EVEN SE PTNS OF THE FA ATTM. THIS IS NOT TO SAY
THAT THE MODEL TREND COULD NOT REVERSE SOMEWHAT WITHIN THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO...BUT GIVEN THE HEMISPHERIC LONG WV SET UP WITH THE
BOTTOMING OF THE S/WV ENERGY OVR THE ERN CAROLINA`S ACCOMPANIED
BY WEAK FAR N ATLC BLOCKING ASSOCIATED WITH AN NAO- TELECONNECTION
PATTERN...EVEN A WORST CASE SCENARIO WOULD ONLY SIG IMPACT THE SE
HLF OF THE FA...WHICH IS SUPPORTED ATTM BY ANALOGS WITH THE UNIV
OF ST LOUIS ANALOG WEB SITE.

FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE SECOND SFC LOW INTO THE ERN MARITIMES...
COLD...BRISK AND DRY CONDITONS CAN BE XPCTD ON MON AS WEAK SFC HI
PRES FROM THE W APCHS BY MON EVE. THIS SFC HI WILL CREST THE FA
MON NGT WITH SLACKENING WINDS. DESPITE THIS...THE ARRIVAL OF HI
CLDNSS ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER S/WV FROM THE GREAT LKS WILL NOT
ALLOW FOR MUCH RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS LATE MON NGT. WITH
MID AND LOW LVL WARM ADVCN UNDERWAY...SHWRS OR LGT RN FROM THIS
S/WV ON TUE MAY BRIEFLY START AS SN OR MIXED RN/SN ACROSS CNTRL
AND NRN PTNS OF THE FA ON TUE THEN CONT TUE NGT INTO WED AS BOTH
850 AND 925 MB TEMPS SLOWLY RISE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE POSSIBLE MVFR CEILINGS TODAY, MAINLY
AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH
FRIDAY.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: VFR XPCTD FRI NGT...THEN LOWERING TO MVFR ALL
TAF SITES SAT WITH CLD CLGS AND VSBYS IN LGT RN/SN...THEN POSSIBLY
TO IFR SAT NGT INTO SUN IN CLGS AND MSLY SNFL. CONDITIONS IMPROVE
TO VFR CLGS DOWNEAST AND HI MVFR CLGS ACROSS NRN TAF SITES SUN NGT
INTO MON.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS
QUIET ON THE WATERS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. NO HEADLINES ARE
ANTICIPATED.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: WINDS GRADUALLY INCREASE TO POTENTIAL GALE
CONDITIONS FOR SAT INTO ERLY MON...BUT GIVEN HOW FAR OUT IN TM
THIS PTN OF THE FCST IS AND UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE STORM
TRACK...STILL TO ERLY FOR ANY WATCHES ATTM. KEPT CLOSE TO WW3 WV
GUIDANCE FOR FCST WV HTS FOR THESE PTNS OF THE FCST.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HASTINGS
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...HASTINGS/VJN
MARINE...HASTINGS/VJN




000
FXUS61 KCAR 301035
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
635 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
FAIR AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY INTO FRIDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE REGION. A COASTAL STORM WILL LIKELY
IMPACT MOSTLY SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE REGION BY LATE SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
635 AM UPDATE...ONLY CHANGE TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING WAS TO
REMOVE FOG WORDING. NO SITES ARE REPORTING REDUCED VISIBILITY AT
THE MOMENT, AND WITH CLOUDS ON THE INCREASE, FEEL THAT FOG THAT
DOES DEVELOP WILL BE LOCALIZED AND BRIEF. NO OTHER CHANGES WERE
NEEDED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE REGION AWAITS THE ARRIVAL OF THE NEXT STORM
SYSTEM. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY
TODAY, BUT A LAYER OF MOISTURE AT 850-900 MB ALONG WITH SOME
DAYTIME MIXING WILL ALLOW SOME STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS TO DEVELOP
THIS MORNING. WE`LL SEE A BIT OF CLEARING AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT,
BUT CLOUDS WILL ONCE AGAIN INCREASE FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE TREKS
EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL,
WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 40S NORTH TO THE LOWER 50S SOUTH.
TONIGHT`S TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOL, ESPECIALLY IN THE SAINT
JOHN VALLEY WHERE UPPER 20S ARE POSSIBLE. ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTH,
LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S ARE EXPECTED, WHILE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST
MAINE WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S; UPPER 30S RIGHT
ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS APPEAR TO BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE S/WV ENERGY FROM
CNTRL CAN THAT CONT TO DIG SSE INTO THE CAROLINA`S BY SAT MORN. A
WEAK LEAD S/WV ALLOWS A FIRST SFC LOW TO FORM EAST OF THE VA CAPE
ON THE POLAR FRONT WELL AHEAD OF MAIN ENERGY WITH THE DEVELOPING
UPPER LOW. THIS INITIAL LOW WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR BRINGING THE
INITIAL CLDNSS AND MSLY LGT PRECIP TO THE REGION BY SAT AFTN INTO
SAT NGT...WITH MORE SIG PRECIP TO SE PTNS OF THE FA SAT NGT.
PRECIP...WHICH WILL BE LGT AND UNORGANIZED INTO ERLY SAT AFTN...
WILL FALL MSLY AS RN OR A MIX OF RN AND SN...WITH BOTH LLVL COLD
ADVCN DYNAMIC COOLING FROM ALF RESULTING IN A CHGOVR TO ALL SN
DURG THE EVE HRS TO ALL REGIONS N OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND EVEN
ALG THE COAST BY LATE SAT NGT. IF THE CONSENSUS OF FCST QPF IS
ACCURATE FROM THIS FAR OUT...THE BEST POTENTIAL OF SIG SNFL WITH
THIS FIRST WV OF LOW PRES AS IT TRACKS E OF NOVA SCOTIA WILL BE
OVR INTERIOR SE PTNS OF THE REGION WHERE SVRL INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE...WITH PROGRESSIVELY LESSER SNFL N AND W...BUT WE
EMPHASIZE IT IS STILL ERLY TO COUNT ON ANY PARTICULAR SCENARIO.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BOTH THE 00Z DTMNSTC GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE THAT AFT THE PASSAGE
OF THE FIRST SFC LOW JUST E OF NOVA SCOTIA...THE POLAR FRONT MAY
BE PUSHED FURTHER SE OFF THE ERN U.S. COAST...RESULTING IN THE
SECOND SFC LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN UPPER LOW SUN TO BE FCST
TO TRACK ALG OR A LITTLE FURTHER E THAN THE FIRST SFC LOW...WHICH
IS SIG FURTHER E THAN ADVERTISED BY THE MODELS YSTDY ATTM. IF THIS
SCENARIO WERE TO PLAY OUT...THEN ANY ADDITIONAL SIG SNFL ON SUN
WOULD BE LMTD TO SE WASHINGTON COUNTY...WITH SNFL WINDING DOWN AS
SN SHWRS ELSEWHERE...AND THEN ENDING ACROSS ALL THE REGION SUN
NGT. THE BOTTOM LN WITH THIS COMPLEX SCENARIO IS THAT GIVEN THAT
THE MODEL TREND OF THE TRACKS OF BOTH SFC LOWS IS FURTHER E OVR
THE LAST FEW MODEL RUNS...ITS TO ERLY ATTM TO COMMIT TO ANY WINTER
STM WATCHES FOR EVEN SE PTNS OF THE FA ATTM. THIS IS NOT TO SAY
THAT THE MODEL TREND COULD NOT REVERSE SOMEWHAT WITHIN THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO...BUT GIVEN THE HEMISPHERIC LONG WV SET UP WITH THE
BOTTOMING OF THE S/WV ENERGY OVR THE ERN CAROLINA`S ACCOMPANIED
BY WEAK FAR N ATLC BLOCKING ASSOCIATED WITH AN NAO- TELECONNECTION
PATTERN...EVEN A WORST CASE SCENARIO WOULD ONLY SIG IMPACT THE SE
HLF OF THE FA...WHICH IS SUPPORTED ATTM BY ANALOGS WITH THE UNIV
OF ST LOUIS ANALOG WEB SITE.

FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE SECOND SFC LOW INTO THE ERN MARITIMES...
COLD...BRISK AND DRY CONDITONS CAN BE XPCTD ON MON AS WEAK SFC HI
PRES FROM THE W APCHS BY MON EVE. THIS SFC HI WILL CREST THE FA
MON NGT WITH SLACKENING WINDS. DESPITE THIS...THE ARRIVAL OF HI
CLDNSS ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER S/WV FROM THE GREAT LKS WILL NOT
ALLOW FOR MUCH RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS LATE MON NGT. WITH
MID AND LOW LVL WARM ADVCN UNDERWAY...SHWRS OR LGT RN FROM THIS
S/WV ON TUE MAY BRIEFLY START AS SN OR MIXED RN/SN ACROSS CNTRL
AND NRN PTNS OF THE FA ON TUE THEN CONT TUE NGT INTO WED AS BOTH
850 AND 925 MB TEMPS SLOWLY RISE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE POSSIBLE MVFR CEILINGS TODAY, MAINLY
AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH
FRIDAY.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: VFR XPCTD FRI NGT...THEN LOWERING TO MVFR ALL
TAF SITES SAT WITH CLD CLGS AND VSBYS IN LGT RN/SN...THEN POSSIBLY
TO IFR SAT NGT INTO SUN IN CLGS AND MSLY SNFL. CONDITIONS IMPROVE
TO VFR CLGS DOWNEAST AND HI MVFR CLGS ACROSS NRN TAF SITES SUN NGT
INTO MON.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS
QUIET ON THE WATERS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. NO HEADLINES ARE
ANTICIPATED.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: WINDS GRADUALLY INCREASE TO POTENTIAL GALE
CONDITIONS FOR SAT INTO ERLY MON...BUT GIVEN HOW FAR OUT IN TM
THIS PTN OF THE FCST IS AND UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE STORM
TRACK...STILL TO ERLY FOR ANY WATCHES ATTM. KEPT CLOSE TO WW3 WV
GUIDANCE FOR FCST WV HTS FOR THESE PTNS OF THE FCST.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HASTINGS
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...HASTINGS/VJN
MARINE...HASTINGS/VJN




000
FXUS61 KCAR 300815
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
415 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
FAIR AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY INTO FRIDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE REGION. A COASTAL STORM WILL LIKELY
IMPACT MOSTLY SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE REGION BY LATE SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE
REGION AWAITS THE ARRIVAL OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM. A WEAK RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY TODAY, BUT A LAYER OF
MOISTURE AT 850-900 MB ALONG WITH SOME DAYTIME MIXING WILL ALLOW
SOME STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING. WE`LL SEE A BIT
OF CLEARING AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT, BUT CLOUDS WILL ONCE AGAIN
INCREASE FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE TREKS EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL, WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE MID 40S NORTH TO THE LOWER 50S SOUTH. TONIGHT`S TEMPERATURES
WILL BE A BIT COOL, ESPECIALLY IN THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY WHERE
UPPER 20S ARE POSSIBLE. ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTH, LOWS IN THE LOWER
30S ARE EXPECTED, WHILE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST MAINE WILL BOTTOM OUT
IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S; UPPER 30S RIGHT ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS APPEAR TO BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE S/WV ENERGY FROM
CNTRL CAN THAT CONT TO DIG SSE INTO THE CAROLINA`S BY SAT MORN. A
WEAK LEAD S/WV ALLOWS A FIRST SFC LOW TO FORM EAST OF THE VA CAPE
ON THE POLAR FRONT WELL AHEAD OF MAIN ENERGY WITH THE DEVELOPING
UPPER LOW. THIS INITIAL LOW WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR BRINGING THE
INITIAL CLDNSS AND MSLY LGT PRECIP TO THE REGION BY SAT AFTN INTO
SAT NGT...WITH MORE SIG PRECIP TO SE PTNS OF THE FA SAT NGT.
PRECIP...WHICH WILL BE LGT AND UNORGANIZED INTO ERLY SAT AFTN...
WILL FALL MSLY AS RN OR A MIX OF RN AND SN...WITH BOTH LLVL COLD
ADVCN DYNAMIC COOLING FROM ALF RESULTING IN A CHGOVR TO ALL SN
DURG THE EVE HRS TO ALL REGIONS N OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND EVEN
ALG THE COAST BY LATE SAT NGT. IF THE CONSENSUS OF FCST QPF IS
ACCURATE FROM THIS FAR OUT...THE BEST POTENTIAL OF SIG SNFL WITH
THIS FIRST WV OF LOW PRES AS IT TRACKS E OF NOVA SCOTIA WILL BE
OVR INTERIOR SE PTNS OF THE REGION WHERE SVRL INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE...WITH PROGRESSIVELY LESSER SNFL N AND W...BUT WE
EMPHASIZE IT IS STILL ERLY TO COUNT ON ANY PARTICULAR SCENARIO.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BOTH THE 00Z DTMNSTC GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE THAT AFT THE PASSAGE
OF THE FIRST SFC LOW JUST E OF NOVA SCOTIA...THE POLAR FRONT MAY
BE PUSHED FURTHER SE OFF THE ERN U.S. COAST...RESULTING IN THE
SECOND SFC LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN UPPER LOW SUN TO BE FCST
TO TRACK ALG OR A LITTLE FURTHER E THAN THE FIRST SFC LOW...WHICH
IS SIG FURTHER E THAN ADVERTISED BY THE MODELS YSTDY ATTM. IF THIS
SCENARIO WERE TO PLAY OUT...THEN ANY ADDITIONAL SIG SNFL ON SUN
WOULD BE LMTD TO SE WASHINGTON COUNTY...WITH SNFL WINDING DOWN AS
SN SHWRS ELSEWHERE...AND THEN ENDING ACROSS ALL THE REGION SUN
NGT. THE BOTTOM LN WITH THIS COMPLEX SCENARIO IS THAT GIVEN THAT
THE MODEL TREND OF THE TRACKS OF BOTH SFC LOWS IS FURTHER E OVR
THE LAST FEW MODEL RUNS...ITS TO ERLY ATTM TO COMMIT TO ANY WINTER
STM WATCHES FOR EVEN SE PTNS OF THE FA ATTM. THIS IS NOT TO SAY
THAT THE MODEL TREND COULD NOT REVERSE SOMEWHAT WITHIN THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO...BUT GIVEN THE HEMISPHERIC LONG WV SET UP WITH THE
BOTTOMING OF THE S/WV ENERGY OVR THE ERN CAROLINA`S ACCOMPANIED
BY WEAK FAR N ATLC BLOCKING ASSOCIATED WITH AN NAO- TELECONNECTION
PATTERN...EVEN A WORST CASE SCENARIO WOULD ONLY SIG IMPACT THE SE
HLF OF THE FA...WHICH IS SUPPORTED ATTM BY ANALOGS WITH THE UNIV
OF ST LOUIS ANALOG WEB SITE.

FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE SECOND SFC LOW INTO THE ERN MARITIMES...
COLD...BRISK AND DRY CONDITONS CAN BE XPCTD ON MON AS WEAK SFC HI
PRES FROM THE W APCHS BY MON EVE. THIS SFC HI WILL CREST THE FA
MON NGT WITH SLACKENING WINDS. DESPITE THIS...THE ARRIVAL OF HI
CLDNSS ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER S/WV FROM THE GREAT LKS WILL NOT
ALLOW FOR MUCH RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS LATE MON NGT. WITH
MID AND LOW LVL WARM ADVCN UNDERWAY...SHWRS OR LGT RN FROM THIS
S/WV ON TUE MAY BRIEFLY START AS SN OR MIXED RN/SN ACROSS CNTRL
AND NRN PTNS OF THE FA ON TUE THEN CONT TUE NGT INTO WED AS BOTH
850 AND 925 MB TEMPS SLOWLY RISE.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE POSSIBLE MVFR CEILINGS TODAY, MAINLY
AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH
FRIDAY.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: VFR XPCTD FRI NGT...THEN LOWERING TO MVFR ALL
TAF SITES SAT WITH CLD CLGS AND VSBYS IN LGT RN/SN...THEN POSSIBLY
TO IFR SAT NGT INTO SUN IN CLGS AND MSLY SNFL. CONDITIONS IMPROVE
TO VFR CLGS DOWNEAST AND HI MVFR CLGS ACROSS NRN TAF SITES SUN NGT
INTO MON.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS
QUIET ON THE WATERS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. NO HEADLINES ARE
ANTICIPATED.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: WINDS GRADUALLY INCREASE TO POTENTIAL GALE
CONDITIONS FOR SAT INTO ERLY MON...BUT GIVEN HOW FAR OUT IN TM
THIS PTN OF THE FCST IS AND UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE STORM
TRACK...STILL TO ERLY FOR ANY WATCHES ATTM. KEPT CLOSE TO WW3 WV
GUIDANCE FOR FCST WV HTS FOR THESE PTNS OF THE FCST.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HASTINGS
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...HASTINGS/VJN
MARINE...HASTINGS/VJN




000
FXUS61 KGYX 300652
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
252 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST INTO THE REGION TODAY INTO FRIDAY.
POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE REGION OVER THE
WEEKEND...BRINGING EVEN COLDER AIR AND THE CHANCE OF RAIN AND SOME
SNOW. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH A NICE DRY SLOT OF
AIR MOVING ACROSS THE AREA ON WNW WINDS. MOSTLY SUNNY CONDS ARE
EXPECTED IN THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS WHILE IN THE MOUNTAINS SOME CLOUDS
WILL LINGER. MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON MAX TEMPS RANGING FROM
THE MID 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 50S IN THE S AND ALONG THE
COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRES CONTINUES OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AND INTO FRI. CLOUDS
AHEAD OF THE NEXT DEVELOPING SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO THE
AREA ON FRIDAY ALTHOUGH NO PCPN IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY. USED A
BLEND OF MODELS FOR TEMP AND CLOUD FORECAST FOR TONIGHT AND FRI.
GENERALLY MODELS WERE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE MEAN
TROUGH LATE FRIDAY IN THE DEEP SOUTH BEFORE EJECTING OFF THE
COAST OF THE CAROLINAS. THIS STRONG SHORT WAVE FINALLY PHASES
WITH THE MAIN TROUGH SOMETIME LATE SATURDAY NEAR NEW ENGLAND AS
THE WHOLE THING BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED.

AT THE SURFACE A COASTAL STORM DEEPENS RAPIDLY AND MOVES NORTH
AS WELL. THE GFS MSLP ENSEMBLE MEAN KEEPS IT EAST OF THE 40N/70W
BENCHMARK AS DO THE OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE GFS AND THE EUROPEAN.
HOWEVER...COLD TEMPERATURES WILL ALREADY BE IN PLACE OVER THE AREA
AND WRAP AROUND MOISTURE COMBINED WITH UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BE ENOUGH
FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. FARTHER EAST
LOCATIONS SUCH AS THE MIDCOAST WILL HAVE A HIGHER CHANCE FOR A
GLANCING BLOW. DECREASED THE QPF OVER THE REGION A BIT AS THE
STORM CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST WITH EACH NEW MODEL RUN... HOWEVER
THE KENNEBEC VALLEY AND MIDCOAST REGIONS STILL SHOULD SEE 1-2" OF
SNOW. LOCATIONS IN BETWEEN WILL LIKELY SEE A FEW TENTHS OF AN
INCH. THE SNOW WILL MELT OFF QUICKLY AS HIGHS REACH THE 40S ON
SUNDAY.

WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE STORM ARE ANOMALOUSLY STRONG...BOTH
THE U AND THE V COMPONENTS AT 925MB AND 850MB. THIS WILL PROBABLY
RESULT IN GALES OVER THE BAYS TO STRONG GALES OR EVEN STORM FORCE
WINDS OVER THE OUTER GULF OF MAINE ON SUNDAY. IN ADDITION A WIND
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE COAST.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT LOOK ESPECIALLY CHILLY FOR
OVERNIGHT LOWS AS MUCH COLDER AIR FILTERS IN ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE COASTAL SYSTEM. IN ADDITION...PWATS TAKE A NOSEDIVE SUNDAY
NIGHT TO NEAR 0.10" OR VERY CLOSE TO THE KNOWN MINIMUM FOR THIS
STATION FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...HELPING RADIATIONAL COOLING OUT
TREMENDOUSLY. HAVE GONE BELOW GUIDANCE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR THIS
REASON.

ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES NORTH OF THE REGION TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...SOME EARLY MORNING VLY FOG WILL ALLOW IFR CONDS INTO
THE MORNING OTRW MOST AREAS WILL BE VFR TODAY INTO FRI. BY LATE
FRI SOME MVFR CIGS MAY DEVELOP AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES.

LONG TERM...COASTAL LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTH ON SATURDAY BRINGING
CEILINGS DOWN BELOW VFR. MVFR AND EVENTUALLY IFR CIGS/VSBYS MOVE
INTO THE AREA AS RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS SPREAD NORTH. IFR VSBYS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SNOW. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT BACK TO VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATE SUN THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BLO SCA LVLS THRU FRI.

LONG TERM...A DEVELOPING COASTAL STORM WILL AFFECT THE WATERS OVER
THE WEEKEND. THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY...BUT CONSECUTIVE
MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN MOVING THE STORM OUT FARTHER. CURRENTLY THE
STORM PASSES OUTSIDE THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK. HOWEVER GALES APPEAR
LIKELY OVER THE BAYS WITH STORM FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE OVER THE
OUTER WATERS. SEAS WILL ALSO CLIMB TO 8-12 FT IN THE OUTER WATERS.
WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA BY MONDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

MARINE/HANES




000
FXUS61 KCAR 300443
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1243 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SECOND COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT WITH SOME SHOWERS
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER THEN
SETS UP FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE
REGION. A COASTAL STORM WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE REGION BY LATE
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1240 AM UPDATE...SHOWERS ARE RAPIDLY EXITING DOWNEAST MAINE AT
THIS HOUR AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE. HAVE MADE SOME
ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS TO MATCH CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. ALSO ADDED
PATCHY FOG TO THE FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT/EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING AS THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF CLEARING SKIES
BEFORE DAYBREAK. NO OTHER CHANGES WERE NEEDED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A SECOND COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT
W/ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS. FOG STILL HOLDING ON ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY FROM CARIBOU NORTHWARD AND
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN W/THE WARM AIR ALOFT OVER THE
COOLER AIR IN THE BLYR. FURTHER S, JUST PATCHY FOG ATTM. RADAR
SHOWED A LINE OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
BOUNDARY. THE NAM12 AND RAP WERE DOING WELL W/PLACEMENT OF THE
SHOWERS AND DECIDED TO FOLLOW THIS BLEND INTO THE EVENING W/THE
SECOND PUSH OF SHOWERS. THE RAIN WILL PUSH OFFSHORE BY MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO NO MORE THAN 0.25" AND
THIS WILL BE ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AND INTERIOR DOWNEAST
SECTIONS. THE BLYR WILL MIX OUT LATER TONIGHT AS A WNW FLOW SETS
UP BEHIND THE FRONT W/SOME PARTIAL CLEARING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
DOWNEAST. BEFORE THEN, FOG COULD SET UP FOR A WHILE AND BECOME
DENSE BEFORE THE BLYR MIXES OUT. THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED BY
THE EVENING CREW.

THE AIRMASS BEHIND THIS FRONT IS NOT THAT COLD, SO THE OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL NOT DROP TOO FAR BELOW 40 ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MAINE,
WHILE SOUTH/DOWNEAST WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S. TEMPERATURES
ON THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE NORMAL RANGE AS COOLER AIR FILTERS INTO
THE REGION. STILL SOME PRETTY GOOD RH FROM 925-850MBS ON THURSDAY
TO ALLOW FOR CLOUDS DURING THE DAY LIMITING THE SUNSHINE ACROSS
THE NORTH AND WEST. DOWNSLOPE WILL AID IN MORE SUN FOR THE
DOWNEAST AND COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A RIDGE AT THE SURFACE WILL BUILD IN FOR THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS FILTERING IN COOLER AIR. EXPECT MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES DOWNEAST WITH SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE
NORTH STREAMING NORTH AND EAST AHEAD OF DEVELOPING WAVE OVER THE
GREAT LAKES. EXPECT LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S AND LOW 30S
ACROSS THE NORTH TO THE MID AND UPPER 30S DOWNEAST.

FRIDAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE QUIET AS A COMPLEX WEATHER SYSTEM
BEGINS TO ORGANIZE OFF TO THE SOUTH. SKIES LOOK TO BE MAINLY
CLOUDY IN THE NORTH WITH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS DOWNEAST. HIGHS
WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE LOW 40S NORTH TO THE UPPER 40S TO
AROUND 50 DOWNEAST.

THE FORECAST BECOMES MORE COMPLEX FOR FRIDAY NIGHT HEADING INTO
SATURDAY. A STRONG 500 MB SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE SOUTH AND EAST FROM
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TOWARD THE CAROLINA COAST DURING THIS TIME
WITH LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE DEVELOPING OFF THE EAST COAST.
FORECAST MODELS ARE STILL STRUGGLING WITH THE EXACT EVOLUTION OF
THIS SYSTEM IN TERMS OF TRACK AND TIMING OF THE PRECIP ONSET.
EXPECT SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
EITHER LATE FRIDAY NIGHT OR DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. IF THIS
PRECIP COMES IN EARLY ENOUGH, IT MAY FALL AS A LITTLE SNOW AWAY
FROM THE COAST BEFORE GOING TO RAIN SATURDAY AS TEMPERATURES
MODERATE. AS THE LOW DRAWS CLOSER, PRECIP WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL
OF BECOMING HEAVIER AND STEADIER BY LATE DAY SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT OVER EASTERN AREAS DEPENDING ON THE LOW`S TRACK...

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
SATURDAY NIGHT THEN MOVE NORTHEAST TO NOVA SCOTIA DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY BASE ON OPERATIONAL GFS AND MOST GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS.
OPERATIONAL ECMWF BRINGS THIS SYSTEM CLOSER TO THE MAINE COAST.
STILL TO SOON TO MAKE CALL ON EXACT TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM. EXPECT
STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW AND COLDER AIR MASS MONDAY AS INTENSIFING
LOW MOVES TO THE NORTH. RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE STATE
TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST WEDESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED TO MOSTLY MVFR/VFR AT THE
TERMINALS AS OF 01Z. PATCHY IFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS/FOG FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS EASTERN MAINE. MAINLY VFR THURSDAY...BUT
POCKETS OF MVFR POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS AND FAR
NORTHERN MAINE.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: MAINLY VFR FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
CONDITIONS DETERIORATING TO AT LEAST MVFR ARE LIKELY SATURDAY AS
RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX MOVES IN....IFR CONDITIONS ALSO EXPECTED
SUNDAY. VFR CODNITIONS MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HEADLINES EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY. WIND GUSTS
COULD HIT 20 KTS LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY ON THE BACKSIDE ON
THE FRONT AND COOLER AIR MOVING ACROSS THE WATERS. SEAS WILL
REMAIN 3-4 FT INTO THURSDAY.

SHORT TO LONG TERM:
NO HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY. AS A COASTAL LOW
DEVELOPS AND MOVES NORTH SATURDAY WINDS AND WAVES WILL INCREASE
WITH HIGH END SCA TO EVEN GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BY LATE
SATURDAY. HOWEVER IT SHOULD BE NOTED THERE IS STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TRACK OF THE STORM WHICH WILL DETERMINE
THE MAGNITUDE OF THE WINDS AND WAVE HEIGHTS REACHED...

&&

.CLIMATE...
CHECK OUT THE LATEST PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT ON
HALLOWEEN WEATHER THROUGHOUT THE YEARS AT CARIBOU AND BANGOR. THE
STATEMENT IS AVAILABLE AT NOUS41 KCAR OR AT PWMPNSCAR.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HASTINGS/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...FITZSIMMONS
LONG TERM...MIGNONE
AVIATION...HASTINGS/HEWITT/FITZSIMMONS
MARINE...HASTINGS/HEWITT/FITZSIMMONS
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KGYX 300140
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
940 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION BY THIS EVENING. COOLER HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE REGION OVER THE
WEEKEND...BRINGING EVEN COLDER AIR THE CHANCE OF SOME RAIN AND
SNOW. WHILE AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS TO PASS MOSTLY OUT TO SEA...SOME
MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
940 PM UPDATE...BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS IS CURRENTLY MOVING OFFSHORE.
HAVE SPED UP THE CLEARING LINE WHICH IS REACHING THE CT VALLEY AT THIS
TIME. OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.

630 PM UPDATE...HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST A BIT THIS EVENING MAINLY
TO ACCOUNT FOR THE TIMING OF THE BAND OF RAIN MOVING ACROSS THE CWA.
THE HRRR HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON IT AND HAVE USED IT/S TIMING. THE BAND
SHOULD SPEED UP A BIT AND EXIT THE COAST PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT. OTHERWISE...NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.

PREVIOUSLY...

SFC COLD FRONT CURRENTLY LOOKS TO STRETCH SW ALONG THE ST LAWRENCE
VLY AND THEN INTO CENTRAL NY. SHOULD BEGIN TO TRACK MORE QUICKLY
TO THE E OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AND THE BAND OF SHOWERS WILL
SHIFT EWD ACROSS THE CWA THRU LATE THIS AFT AND DURING EARLY
EVENING. THE SHRA SHOULD CLEAR ALL BUT THE MID-COAST BY7 AROUND
00Z...AND SHOULD EXIT THERE BY 02Z.

WESTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD CLEAR OUT ANY LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG LINGERING ALONG THE COAST...AND SKIES SHOULD AT LEAST
PARTIALLY CLEAR OUT IN THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS....WITH CLOUDS LINGERING
IN THE MTNS. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AFTER A WEAK 500MB RIDGE PASSE4S THRU THE CWA EARLY AM...WHICH
COULD PRODUCE A CLUSTER OF MID-HIGH EARLY...SHOULD SEE SFC HIGH
BUILD IN FROM THE W AS WEAK RIDGING DEVELOPS ALOFT. WILL SEE
UPSLOPE CLOUDS AND DOWNSLOPE CLEARING DURING THE DAY....WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. WINDS DROP OFF FOR A MAINLY CLEAR AND
CALM THU NIGHT...SO TEMPS WILL GENERALLY FALL INTO THE 30S.


&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAIN FOCUS OF THE EXTENDED REVOLVES AROUND POWERFUL LOW PRES
SYSTEM THAT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WEEKEND.

A POTENT S/WV WILL CARVE OUT A SEASONABLY STRONG TROF OVER THE ERN
CONUS. ALL MODEL GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT WITH DIGGING A -3 TO -5 SD
CLOSED LOW THRU THE CAROLINAS SAT. THIS EXITS THE COAST AND FUELS
A POWERFUL LOW PRES OVER THE WATERS THAT RACES NEWD. THE FLY IN
THE OINTMENT IS A LEAD S/WV THAT IS FORECAST TO TRIGGER
CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE COAST PRIOR TO THE MAIN UPPER TROF ARRIVING
OVER EAST COAST. THE RESULT IS A PUSH EWD OF THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE...WHICH KEEPS THE SECOND SFC LOW FARTHER OUT TO SEA FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. GIVEN THE CLOSED NATURE OF THE UPPER
LEVELS THIS SFC LOW WILL TRY AND TUCK BACK TOWARDS THE COAST WITH
TIME...SO COASTAL ME IS NOT LEFT HIGH AND DRY. INCREASING
LONGITUDE WILL MEAN INCREASING UNCERTAINTY REGARDING QPF IN THIS
SET UP. PARTS OF NH COULD SEE VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
PCPN...WHILE THE PENOBSCOT BAY REGION SEES CLOSE TO AN INCH OF
LIQUID EQUIVALENT.

ATTM A MULTI MODEL BLEND SEEMS PRUDENT...THOUGH THE INDIVIDUAL
PIECES OF GUIDANCE ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR WITH A NEAR MISS. THE
RESULTING QPF FORECAST IS AROUND 0.10 INCHES FOR THE CT RIVER
VALLEY...INCREASING TO NEAR A HALF INCH AROUND KPWM TO
JACKMAN...AND FINALLY 0.75 INCHES NEAR KRKD. EXAMINING TEMP
PROFILES OF THE VARIOUS MODELS DOES GIVE SUPPORT TO A WIDESPREAD
CHUNK OF THE FORECAST AREA SEEING THE FIRST ACCUMULATING SNFL OF
THE SEASON. THE RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW PRES AND LEAD S/WV HEADING
OUT TO SEA WILL HELP TO MITIGATE WAA BRINGING IN ABOVE FREEZING
AIR ALOFT. MODEL FORECASTS DO WARM SOME ALOFT...BUT AS 925 MB
TEMPS FALL TO NEAR -4 C ALONG THE COAST...THAT SHOULD STAY ALL OR
MOSTLY SNOW...ESPECIALLY HEADING INTO SAT NIGHT AND SUN. BASED ON
THAT FORECAST ALOFT AND EXPECTED HOURLY TEMPS...THE GRIDS REFLECT
3-5 INCHES OF SNFL POSSIBLE FOR CENTRAL ME AND ESPECIALLY THE
MIDCOAST. CLOSER TO KPWM LESS THAN AN INCH IS POSSIBLE...WITH A
DUSTING TO JUST A FEW FLAKES ELSEWHERE.

ALSO OF NOTE ARE THE WIND PROFILES FROM THE VARIOUS FORECAST
MODELS. ATTM THE GFS AND CMC ARE THE MOST BULLISH GUIDANCE. BASED
ON THE WIND ALOFT AND FORECAST MIXED LAYER...GUSTS GREATER THAN 40
KTS WOULD BE POSSIBLE. OVER THE OUTER WATERS EVEN STRONGER GUSTS
IN THE 50-60 KT RANGE WOULD BE POSSIBLE. THE ECMWF IS TEMPERED
SLIGHTLY...WITH OVERLAND GUSTS MORE IN THE 35-40 KT RANGE. GIVEN
THE DIFFICULTY IN REACHING HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA IN MOST
EVENTS THE ECMWF WAS WEIGHTED SLIGHTLY HIGHER IN THE BLEND. EVEN
SO THE FORECAST REFLECTS 35-45 MPH GUSTS ALONG THE COAST...WITH
NEAR STORM FORCE OVER THE WATERS.

THE MAIN POINT IS THAT THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM
TO AFFECT AT LEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS WEEKEND.
HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL ROOM FOR THE FORECAST TO CHANGE IN EITHER
DIRECTION...INCLUDING FARTHER OUT TO SEA AND LESS PCPN.

BEYOND THE WEEKEND...A MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WAS THE PREFERRED
FORECAST METHOD. HIGH PRES AND RIDING ALOFT GENERALLY IN CONTROL
THRU MIDWEEK. TEMPS SHOULD REBOUND NICELY FROM THE COLDER THAN
NORMAL WEEKEND. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PCPN WILL BE THE SECOND HALF
OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...STUBBORN LOW CLOUDS AND FOG SHOULD BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT
ONCE A COLD FRONT PASSES THRU AROUND 00Z. COULD SEE SOME FOG
ADVECT IN FROM THE RIVER AT KLEB. VFR THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THU
NIGHT.

LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS START THE PERIOD FRI. LOW PRES GATHERS
STRENGTH S OF THE AREA ON SAT...WITH CLOUDS SPREADING NWD. MVFR
AND EVENTUALLY IFR CIGS/VSBYS MOVE INTO THE AREA. SNFL IS POSSIBLE
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA LATE SAT INTO SUN. ACCUMULATIONS APPEAR
UNLIKELY OUTSIDE OF CENTRAL ME...BUT IFR VSBYS WOULD BE POSSIBLE
IN ANY SNOW. GRADUALLY IMPROVEMENT BACK TO VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED LATE SUN THRU THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...ALTHOUGH WILL SEE A BRIEF SURGE IN W-NW WINDS
OVERNIGHT BEHIND A COLD FRONT...WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BLO SCA
LVLS THRU THU NIGHT.

LONG TERM...A DEVELOPING COASTAL STORM IS GOING TO GATHER STRENGTH
INTO THE WEEKEND. ATTM A SEASONABLY STRONG LOW PRES IS FORECAST TO
PASS THRU OR NEAR THE GULF OF ME. THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY
ATTM...BUT GALES APPEAR LIKELY WITH STORM FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE.
SEAS WILL ALSO CLIMB TO NEAR 20 FT IN THIS SCENARIO. WINDS AND
SEAS THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRES
TAKES CONTROL OF THE WATERS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM UPDATE...MLE
LONG TERM...LEGRO




000
FXUS61 KCAR 300110
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
910 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SECOND COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT WITH SOME SHOWERS
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER THEN
SETS UP FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE
REGION. A COASTAL STORM WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE REGION BY LATE
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
910 PM UPDATE...SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL PUSH OFF THE DOWN EAST COAST
OVERNIGHT. THE LAST OF THE SHOWERS SHOULD COME TO AN END AROUND 06Z
ACROSS WASHINGTON COUNTY. MAIN UPDATE WAS TO THE POPS FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS TO BETTER MATCH THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A SECOND COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT
W/ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS. FOG STILL HOLDING ON ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY FROM CARIBOU NORTHWARD AND
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN W/THE WARM AIR ALOFT OVER THE
COOLER AIR IN THE BLYR. FURTHER S, JUST PATCHY FOG ATTM. RADAR
SHOWED A LINE OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
BOUNDARY. THE NAM12 AND RAP WERE DOING WELL W/PLACEMENT OF THE
SHOWERS AND DECIDED TO FOLLOW THIS BLEND INTO THE EVENING W/THE
SECOND PUSH OF SHOWERS. THE RAIN WILL PUSH OFFSHORE BY MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO NO MORE THAN 0.25" AND
THIS WILL BE ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AND INTERIOR DOWNEAST
SECTIONS. THE BLYR WILL MIX OUT LATER TONIGHT AS A WNW FLOW SETS
UP BEHIND THE FRONT W/SOME PARTIAL CLEARING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
DOWNEAST. BEFORE THEN, FOG COULD SET UP FOR A WHILE AND BECOME
DENSE BEFORE THE BLYR MIXES OUT. THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED BY
THE EVENING CREW.

THE AIRMASS BEHIND THIS FRONT IS NOT THAT COLD, SO THE OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL NOT DROP TOO FAR BELOW 40 ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MAINE,
WHILE SOUTH/DOWNEAST WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S. TEMPERATURES
ON THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE NORMAL RANGE AS COOLER AIR FILTERS INTO
THE REGION. STILL SOME PRETTY GOOD RH FROM 925-850MBS ON THURSDAY
TO ALLOW FOR CLOUDS DURING THE DAY LIMITING THE SUNSHINE ACROSS
THE NORTH AND WEST. DOWNSLOPE WILL AID IN MORE SUN FOR THE
DOWNEAST AND COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A RIDGE AT THE SURFACE WILL BUILD IN FOR THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS FILTERING IN COOLER AIR. EXPECT MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES DOWNEAST WITH SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE
NORTH STREAMING NORTH AND EAST AHEAD OF DEVELOPING WAVE OVER THE
GREAT LAKES. EXPECT LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S AND LOW 30S
ACROSS THE NORTH TO THE MID AND UPPER 30S DOWNEAST.

FRIDAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE QUIET AS A COMPLEX WEATHER SYSTEM
BEGINS TO ORGANIZE OFF TO THE SOUTH. SKIES LOOK TO BE MAINLY
CLOUDY IN THE NORTH WITH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS DOWNEAST. HIGHS
WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE LOW 40S NORTH TO THE UPPER 40S TO
AROUND 50 DOWNEAST.

THE FORECAST BECOMES MORE COMPLEX FOR FRIDAY NIGHT HEADING INTO
SATURDAY. A STRONG 500 MB SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE SOUTH AND EAST FROM
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TOWARD THE CAROLINA COAST DURING THIS TIME
WITH LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE DEVELOPING OFF THE EAST COAST.
FORECAST MODELS ARE STILL STRUGGLING WITH THE EXACT EVOLUTION OF
THIS SYSTEM IN TERMS OF TRACK AND TIMING OF THE PRECIP ONSET.
EXPECT SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
EITHER LATE FRIDAY NIGHT OR DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. IF THIS
PRECIP COMES IN EARLY ENOUGH, IT MAY FALL AS A LITTLE SNOW AWAY
FROM THE COAST BEFORE GOING TO RAIN SATURDAY AS TEMPERATURES
MODERATE. AS THE LOW DRAWS CLOSER, PRECIP WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL
OF BECOMING HEAVIER AND STEADIER BY LATE DAY SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT OVER EASTERN AREAS DEPENDING ON THE LOW`S TRACK...

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
SATURDAY NIGHT THEN MOVE NORTHEAST TO NOVA SCOTIA DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY BASE ON OPERATIONAL GFS AND MOST GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS.
OPERATIONAL ECMWF BRINGS THIS SYSTEM CLOSER TO THE MAINE COAST.
STILL TO SOON TO MAKE CALL ON EXACT TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM. EXPECT
STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW AND COLDER AIR MASS MONDAY AS INTENSIFING
LOW MOVES TO THE NORTH. RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE STATE
TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST WEDESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED TO MOSTLY MVFR/VFR AT THE
TERMINALS AS OF 01Z. PATCHY IFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS/FOG FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS EASTERN MAINE. MAINLY VFR THURSDAY...BUT
POCKETS OF MVFR POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS AND FAR
NORTHERN MAINE.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: MAINLY VFR FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
CONDITIONS DETERIORATING TO AT LEAST MVFR ARE LIKELY SATURDAY AS
RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX MOVES IN....IFR CONDITIONS ALSO EXPECTED
SUNDAY. VFR CODNITIONS MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HEADLINES EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY. WIND GUSTS
COULD HIT 20 KTS LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY ON THE BACKSIDE ON
THE FRONT AND COOLER AIR MOVING ACROSS THE WATERS. SEAS WILL
REMAIN 3-4 FT INTO THURSDAY.

SHORT TO LONG TERM:
NO HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY. AS A COASTAL LOW
DEVELOPS AND MOVES NORTH SATURDAY WINDS AND WAVES WILL INCREASE
WITH HIGH END SCA TO EVEN GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BY LATE
SATURDAY. HOWEVER IT SHOULD BE NOTED THERE IS STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TRACK OF THE STORM WHICH WILL DETERMINE
THE MAGNITUDE OF THE WINDS AND WAVE HEIGHTS REACHED...

&&

.CLIMATE...
CHECK OUT THE LATEST PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT ON
HALLOWEEN WEATHER THROUGHOUT THE YEARS AT CARIBOU AND BANGOR. THE
STATEMENT IS AVAILABLE AT NOUS41 KCAR OR AT PWMPNSCAR.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CB/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...FITZSIMMONS
LONG TERM...MIGNONE
AVIATION...CB/HEWITT/FITZSIMMONS
MARINE...CB/HEWITT/FITZSIMMONS
CLIMATE...CB




000
FXUS61 KGYX 292238
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
638 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION BY THIS EVENING. COOLER HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE REGION OVER THE
WEEKEND...BRINGING EVEN COLDER AIR THE CHANCE OF SOME RAIN AND
SNOW. WHILE AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS TO PASS MOSTLY OUT TO SEA...SOME
MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 630 PM UPDATE...HAVE UPDATED THE
FORECAST A BIT THIS EVENING MAINLY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE TIMING OF THE
BAND OF RAIN MOVING ACROSS THE CWA. THE HRRR HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON IT
AND HAVE USED IT/S TIMING. THE BAND SHOULD SPEED UP A BIT AND EXIT
THE COAST PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT. OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.

PREVIOUSLY...

SFC COLD FRONT CURRENTLY LOOKS TO STRETCH SW ALONG THE ST LAWRENCE
VLY AND THEN INTO CENTRAL NY. SHOULD BEGIN TO TRACK MORE QUICKLY
TO THE E OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AND THE BAND OF SHOWERS WILL
SHIFT EWD ACROSS THE CWA THRU LATE THIS AFT AND DURING EARLY
EVENING. THE SHRA SHOULD CLEAR ALL BUT THE MID-COAST BY7 AROUND
00Z...AND SHOULD EXIT THERE BY 02Z.

WESTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD CLEAR OUT ANY LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG LINGERING ALONG THE COAST...AND SKIES SHOULD AT LEAST
PARTIALLY CLEAR OUT IN THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS....WITH CLOUDS LINGERING
IN THE MTNS. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AFTER A WEAK 500MB RIDGE PASSE4S THRU THE CWA EARLY AM...WHICH
COULD PRODUCE A CLUSTER OF MID-HIGH EARLY...SHOULD SEE SFC HIGH
BUILD IN FROM THE W AS WEAK RIDGING DEVELOPS ALOFT. WILL SEE
UPSLOPE CLOUDS AND DOWNSLOPE CLEARING DURING THE DAY....WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. WINDS DROP OFF FOR A MAINLY CLEAR AND
CALM THU NIGHT...SO TEMPS WILL GENERALLY FALL INTO THE 30S.


&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAIN FOCUS OF THE EXTENDED REVOLVES AROUND POWERFUL LOW PRES
SYSTEM THAT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WEEKEND.

A POTENT S/WV WILL CARVE OUT A SEASONABLY STRONG TROF OVER THE ERN
CONUS. ALL MODEL GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT WITH DIGGING A -3 TO -5 SD
CLOSED LOW THRU THE CAROLINAS SAT. THIS EXITS THE COAST AND FUELS
A POWERFUL LOW PRES OVER THE WATERS THAT RACES NEWD. THE FLY IN
THE OINTMENT IS A LEAD S/WV THAT IS FORECAST TO TRIGGER
CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE COAST PRIOR TO THE MAIN UPPER TROF ARRIVING
OVER EAST COAST. THE RESULT IS A PUSH EWD OF THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE...WHICH KEEPS THE SECOND SFC LOW FARTHER OUT TO SEA FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. GIVEN THE CLOSED NATURE OF THE UPPER
LEVELS THIS SFC LOW WILL TRY AND TUCK BACK TOWARDS THE COAST WITH
TIME...SO COASTAL ME IS NOT LEFT HIGH AND DRY. INCREASING
LONGITUDE WILL MEAN INCREASING UNCERTAINTY REGARDING QPF IN THIS
SET UP. PARTS OF NH COULD SEE VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
PCPN...WHILE THE PENOBSCOT BAY REGION SEES CLOSE TO AN INCH OF
LIQUID EQUIVALENT.

ATTM A MULTI MODEL BLEND SEEMS PRUDENT...THOUGH THE INDIVIDUAL
PIECES OF GUIDANCE ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR WITH A NEAR MISS. THE
RESULTING QPF FORECAST IS AROUND 0.10 INCHES FOR THE CT RIVER
VALLEY...INCREASING TO NEAR A HALF INCH AROUND KPWM TO
JACKMAN...AND FINALLY 0.75 INCHES NEAR KRKD. EXAMINING TEMP
PROFILES OF THE VARIOUS MODELS DOES GIVE SUPPORT TO A WIDESPREAD
CHUNK OF THE FORECAST AREA SEEING THE FIRST ACCUMULATING SNFL OF
THE SEASON. THE RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW PRES AND LEAD S/WV HEADING
OUT TO SEA WILL HELP TO MITIGATE WAA BRINGING IN ABOVE FREEZING
AIR ALOFT. MODEL FORECASTS DO WARM SOME ALOFT...BUT AS 925 MB
TEMPS FALL TO NEAR -4 C ALONG THE COAST...THAT SHOULD STAY ALL OR
MOSTLY SNOW...ESPECIALLY HEADING INTO SAT NIGHT AND SUN. BASED ON
THAT FORECAST ALOFT AND EXPECTED HOURLY TEMPS...THE GRIDS REFLECT
3-5 INCHES OF SNFL POSSIBLE FOR CENTRAL ME AND ESPECIALLY THE
MIDCOAST. CLOSER TO KPWM LESS THAN AN INCH IS POSSIBLE...WITH A
DUSTING TO JUST A FEW FLAKES ELSEWHERE.

ALSO OF NOTE ARE THE WIND PROFILES FROM THE VARIOUS FORECAST
MODELS. ATTM THE GFS AND CMC ARE THE MOST BULLISH GUIDANCE. BASED
ON THE WIND ALOFT AND FORECAST MIXED LAYER...GUSTS GREATER THAN 40
KTS WOULD BE POSSIBLE. OVER THE OUTER WATERS EVEN STRONGER GUSTS
IN THE 50-60 KT RANGE WOULD BE POSSIBLE. THE ECMWF IS TEMPERED
SLIGHTLY...WITH OVERLAND GUSTS MORE IN THE 35-40 KT RANGE. GIVEN
THE DIFFICULTY IN REACHING HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA IN MOST
EVENTS THE ECMWF WAS WEIGHTED SLIGHTLY HIGHER IN THE BLEND. EVEN
SO THE FORECAST REFLECTS 35-45 MPH GUSTS ALONG THE COAST...WITH
NEAR STORM FORCE OVER THE WATERS.

THE MAIN POINT IS THAT THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM
TO AFFECT AT LEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS WEEKEND.
HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL ROOM FOR THE FORECAST TO CHANGE IN EITHER
DIRECTION...INCLUDING FARTHER OUT TO SEA AND LESS PCPN.

BEYOND THE WEEKEND...A MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WAS THE PREFERRED
FORECAST METHOD. HIGH PRES AND RIDING ALOFT GENERALLY IN CONTROL
THRU MIDWEEK. TEMPS SHOULD REBOUND NICELY FROM THE COLDER THAN
NORMAL WEEKEND. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PCPN WILL BE THE SECOND HALF
OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...STUBBORN LOW CLOUDS AND FOG SHOULD BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT
ONCE A COLD FRONT PASSES THRU AROUND 00Z. COULD SEE SOME FOG
ADVECT IN FROM THE RIVER AT KLEB. VFR THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THU
NIGHT.

LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS START THE PERIOD FRI. LOW PRES GATHERS
STRENGTH S OF THE AREA ON SAT...WITH CLOUDS SPREADING NWD. MVFR
AND EVENTUALLY IFR CIGS/VSBYS MOVE INTO THE AREA. SNFL IS POSSIBLE
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA LATE SAT INTO SUN. ACCUMULATIONS APPEAR
UNLIKELY OUTSIDE OF CENTRAL ME...BUT IFR VSBYS WOULD BE POSSIBLE
IN ANY SNOW. GRADUALLY IMPROVEMENT BACK TO VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED LATE SUN THRU THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...ALTHOUGH WILL SEE A BRIEF SURGE IN W-NW WINDS
OVERNIGHT BEHIND A COLD FRONT...WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BLO SCA
LVLS THRU THU NIGHT.

LONG TERM...A DEVELOPING COASTAL STORM IS GOING TO GATHER STRENGTH
INTO THE WEEKEND. ATTM A SEASONABLY STRONG LOW PRES IS FORECAST TO
PASS THRU OR NEAR THE GULF OF ME. THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY
ATTM...BUT GALES APPEAR LIKELY WITH STORM FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE.
SEAS WILL ALSO CLIMB TO NEAR 20 FT IN THIS SCENARIO. WINDS AND
SEAS THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRES
TAKES CONTROL OF THE WATERS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM UPDATE...MLE
LONG TERM...LEGRO




000
FXUS61 KGYX 292238
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
638 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION BY THIS EVENING. COOLER HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE REGION OVER THE
WEEKEND...BRINGING EVEN COLDER AIR THE CHANCE OF SOME RAIN AND
SNOW. WHILE AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS TO PASS MOSTLY OUT TO SEA...SOME
MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 630 PM UPDATE...HAVE UPDATED THE
FORECAST A BIT THIS EVENING MAINLY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE TIMING OF THE
BAND OF RAIN MOVING ACROSS THE CWA. THE HRRR HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON IT
AND HAVE USED IT/S TIMING. THE BAND SHOULD SPEED UP A BIT AND EXIT
THE COAST PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT. OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.

PREVIOUSLY...

SFC COLD FRONT CURRENTLY LOOKS TO STRETCH SW ALONG THE ST LAWRENCE
VLY AND THEN INTO CENTRAL NY. SHOULD BEGIN TO TRACK MORE QUICKLY
TO THE E OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AND THE BAND OF SHOWERS WILL
SHIFT EWD ACROSS THE CWA THRU LATE THIS AFT AND DURING EARLY
EVENING. THE SHRA SHOULD CLEAR ALL BUT THE MID-COAST BY7 AROUND
00Z...AND SHOULD EXIT THERE BY 02Z.

WESTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD CLEAR OUT ANY LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG LINGERING ALONG THE COAST...AND SKIES SHOULD AT LEAST
PARTIALLY CLEAR OUT IN THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS....WITH CLOUDS LINGERING
IN THE MTNS. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AFTER A WEAK 500MB RIDGE PASSE4S THRU THE CWA EARLY AM...WHICH
COULD PRODUCE A CLUSTER OF MID-HIGH EARLY...SHOULD SEE SFC HIGH
BUILD IN FROM THE W AS WEAK RIDGING DEVELOPS ALOFT. WILL SEE
UPSLOPE CLOUDS AND DOWNSLOPE CLEARING DURING THE DAY....WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. WINDS DROP OFF FOR A MAINLY CLEAR AND
CALM THU NIGHT...SO TEMPS WILL GENERALLY FALL INTO THE 30S.


&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAIN FOCUS OF THE EXTENDED REVOLVES AROUND POWERFUL LOW PRES
SYSTEM THAT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WEEKEND.

A POTENT S/WV WILL CARVE OUT A SEASONABLY STRONG TROF OVER THE ERN
CONUS. ALL MODEL GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT WITH DIGGING A -3 TO -5 SD
CLOSED LOW THRU THE CAROLINAS SAT. THIS EXITS THE COAST AND FUELS
A POWERFUL LOW PRES OVER THE WATERS THAT RACES NEWD. THE FLY IN
THE OINTMENT IS A LEAD S/WV THAT IS FORECAST TO TRIGGER
CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE COAST PRIOR TO THE MAIN UPPER TROF ARRIVING
OVER EAST COAST. THE RESULT IS A PUSH EWD OF THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE...WHICH KEEPS THE SECOND SFC LOW FARTHER OUT TO SEA FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. GIVEN THE CLOSED NATURE OF THE UPPER
LEVELS THIS SFC LOW WILL TRY AND TUCK BACK TOWARDS THE COAST WITH
TIME...SO COASTAL ME IS NOT LEFT HIGH AND DRY. INCREASING
LONGITUDE WILL MEAN INCREASING UNCERTAINTY REGARDING QPF IN THIS
SET UP. PARTS OF NH COULD SEE VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
PCPN...WHILE THE PENOBSCOT BAY REGION SEES CLOSE TO AN INCH OF
LIQUID EQUIVALENT.

ATTM A MULTI MODEL BLEND SEEMS PRUDENT...THOUGH THE INDIVIDUAL
PIECES OF GUIDANCE ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR WITH A NEAR MISS. THE
RESULTING QPF FORECAST IS AROUND 0.10 INCHES FOR THE CT RIVER
VALLEY...INCREASING TO NEAR A HALF INCH AROUND KPWM TO
JACKMAN...AND FINALLY 0.75 INCHES NEAR KRKD. EXAMINING TEMP
PROFILES OF THE VARIOUS MODELS DOES GIVE SUPPORT TO A WIDESPREAD
CHUNK OF THE FORECAST AREA SEEING THE FIRST ACCUMULATING SNFL OF
THE SEASON. THE RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW PRES AND LEAD S/WV HEADING
OUT TO SEA WILL HELP TO MITIGATE WAA BRINGING IN ABOVE FREEZING
AIR ALOFT. MODEL FORECASTS DO WARM SOME ALOFT...BUT AS 925 MB
TEMPS FALL TO NEAR -4 C ALONG THE COAST...THAT SHOULD STAY ALL OR
MOSTLY SNOW...ESPECIALLY HEADING INTO SAT NIGHT AND SUN. BASED ON
THAT FORECAST ALOFT AND EXPECTED HOURLY TEMPS...THE GRIDS REFLECT
3-5 INCHES OF SNFL POSSIBLE FOR CENTRAL ME AND ESPECIALLY THE
MIDCOAST. CLOSER TO KPWM LESS THAN AN INCH IS POSSIBLE...WITH A
DUSTING TO JUST A FEW FLAKES ELSEWHERE.

ALSO OF NOTE ARE THE WIND PROFILES FROM THE VARIOUS FORECAST
MODELS. ATTM THE GFS AND CMC ARE THE MOST BULLISH GUIDANCE. BASED
ON THE WIND ALOFT AND FORECAST MIXED LAYER...GUSTS GREATER THAN 40
KTS WOULD BE POSSIBLE. OVER THE OUTER WATERS EVEN STRONGER GUSTS
IN THE 50-60 KT RANGE WOULD BE POSSIBLE. THE ECMWF IS TEMPERED
SLIGHTLY...WITH OVERLAND GUSTS MORE IN THE 35-40 KT RANGE. GIVEN
THE DIFFICULTY IN REACHING HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA IN MOST
EVENTS THE ECMWF WAS WEIGHTED SLIGHTLY HIGHER IN THE BLEND. EVEN
SO THE FORECAST REFLECTS 35-45 MPH GUSTS ALONG THE COAST...WITH
NEAR STORM FORCE OVER THE WATERS.

THE MAIN POINT IS THAT THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM
TO AFFECT AT LEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS WEEKEND.
HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL ROOM FOR THE FORECAST TO CHANGE IN EITHER
DIRECTION...INCLUDING FARTHER OUT TO SEA AND LESS PCPN.

BEYOND THE WEEKEND...A MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WAS THE PREFERRED
FORECAST METHOD. HIGH PRES AND RIDING ALOFT GENERALLY IN CONTROL
THRU MIDWEEK. TEMPS SHOULD REBOUND NICELY FROM THE COLDER THAN
NORMAL WEEKEND. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PCPN WILL BE THE SECOND HALF
OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...STUBBORN LOW CLOUDS AND FOG SHOULD BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT
ONCE A COLD FRONT PASSES THRU AROUND 00Z. COULD SEE SOME FOG
ADVECT IN FROM THE RIVER AT KLEB. VFR THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THU
NIGHT.

LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS START THE PERIOD FRI. LOW PRES GATHERS
STRENGTH S OF THE AREA ON SAT...WITH CLOUDS SPREADING NWD. MVFR
AND EVENTUALLY IFR CIGS/VSBYS MOVE INTO THE AREA. SNFL IS POSSIBLE
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA LATE SAT INTO SUN. ACCUMULATIONS APPEAR
UNLIKELY OUTSIDE OF CENTRAL ME...BUT IFR VSBYS WOULD BE POSSIBLE
IN ANY SNOW. GRADUALLY IMPROVEMENT BACK TO VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED LATE SUN THRU THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...ALTHOUGH WILL SEE A BRIEF SURGE IN W-NW WINDS
OVERNIGHT BEHIND A COLD FRONT...WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BLO SCA
LVLS THRU THU NIGHT.

LONG TERM...A DEVELOPING COASTAL STORM IS GOING TO GATHER STRENGTH
INTO THE WEEKEND. ATTM A SEASONABLY STRONG LOW PRES IS FORECAST TO
PASS THRU OR NEAR THE GULF OF ME. THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY
ATTM...BUT GALES APPEAR LIKELY WITH STORM FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE.
SEAS WILL ALSO CLIMB TO NEAR 20 FT IN THIS SCENARIO. WINDS AND
SEAS THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRES
TAKES CONTROL OF THE WATERS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM UPDATE...MLE
LONG TERM...LEGRO




000
FXUS61 KCAR 292220
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
620 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SECOND COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT WITH SOME SHOWERS
THROUGH MIDNIGHT. RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER THEN SETS UP FOR
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE REGION. A
COASTAL STORM WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE REGION BY LATE SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
620 PM UPDATE...SHOWERS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ARE LIFTING
NE ACROSS THE CWA THIS EVENING. THE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS FOR THE
MOST PART LIGHT WITH QPF AMOUNTS OF LESS THAN 0.10" DURING THE
PAST FEW HOURS...AND MOSTLY CONFINED TO PARTS OF
PISCATAQUIS...PENOBSCOT...AND SOUTHERN AROOSTOOK COUNTIES. AREAS
OF FOG MAINLY ACROSS THE CROWN OF MAINE...WITH THE STRATUS DECK
ALL THE WAY DOWN TO THE GROUND AT FRENCHVILLE. ONLY MINOR TWEAKS
TO THE ONGOING FORECAST BASED ON THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND
OBSERVATIONS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A SECOND COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT
W/ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS. FOG STILL HOLDING ON ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY FROM CARIBOU NORTHWARD AND
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN W/THE WARM AIR ALOFT OVER THE
COOLER AIR IN THE BLYR. FURTHER S, JUST PATCHY FOG ATTM. RADAR
SHOWED A LINE OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
BOUNDARY. THE NAM12 AND RAP WERE DOING WELL W/PLACEMENT OF THE
SHOWERS AND DECIDED TO FOLLOW THIS BLEND INTO THE EVENING W/THE
SECOND PUSH OF SHOWERS. THE RAIN WILL PUSH OFFSHORE BY MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO NO MORE THAN 0.25" AND
THIS WILL BE ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AND INTERIOR DOWNEAST
SECTIONS. THE BLYR WILL MIX OUT LATER TONIGHT AS A WNW FLOW SETS
UP BEHIND THE FRONT W/SOME PARTIAL CLEARING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
DOWNEAST. BEFORE THEN, FOG COULD SET UP FOR A WHILE AND BECOME
DENSE BEFORE THE BLYR MIXES OUT. THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED BY
THE EVENING CREW.

THE AIRMASS BEHIND THIS FRONT IS NOT THAT COLD, SO THE OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL NOT DROP TOO FAR BELOW 40 ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MAINE,
WHILE SOUTH/DOWNEAST WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S. TEMPERATURES
ON THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE NORMAL RANGE AS COOLER AIR FILTERS INTO
THE REGION. STILL SOME PRETTY GOOD RH FROM 925-850MBS ON THURSDAY
TO ALLOW FOR CLOUDS DURING THE DAY LIMITING THE SUNSHINE ACROSS
THE NORTH AND WEST. DOWNSLOPE WILL AID IN MORE SUN FOR THE
DOWNEAST AND COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A RIDGE AT THE SURFACE WILL BUILD IN FOR THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS FILTERING IN COOLER AIR. EXPECT MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES DOWNEAST WITH SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE
NORTH STREAMING NORTH AND EAST AHEAD OF DEVELOPING WAVE OVER THE
GREAT LAKES. EXPECT LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S AND LOW 30S
ACROSS THE NORTH TO THE MID AND UPPER 30S DOWNEAST.

FRIDAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE QUIET AS A COMPLEX WEATHER SYSTEM
BEGINS TO ORGANIZE OFF TO THE SOUTH. SKIES LOOK TO BE MAINLY
CLOUDY IN THE NORTH WITH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS DOWNEAST. HIGHS
WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE LOW 40S NORTH TO THE UPPER 40S TO
AROUND 50 DOWNEAST.

THE FORECAST BECOMES MORE COMPLEX FOR FRIDAY NIGHT HEADING INTO
SATURDAY. A STRONG 500 MB SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE SOUTH AND EAST FROM
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TOWARD THE CAROLINA COAST DURING THIS TIME
WITH LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE DEVELOPING OFF THE EAST COAST.
FORECAST MODELS ARE STILL STRUGGLING WITH THE EXACT EVOLUTION OF
THIS SYSTEM IN TERMS OF TRACK AND TIMING OF THE PRECIP ONSET.
EXPECT SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
EITHER LATE FRIDAY NIGHT OR DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. IF THIS
PRECIP COMES IN EARLY ENOUGH, IT MAY FALL AS A LITTLE SNOW AWAY
FROM THE COAST BEFORE GOING TO RAIN SATURDAY AS TEMPERATURES
MODERATE. AS THE LOW DRAWS CLOSER, PRECIP WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL
OF BECOMING HEAVIER AND STEADIER BY LATE DAY SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT OVER EASTERN AREAS DEPENDING ON THE LOW`S TRACK...

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
SATURDAY NIGHT THEN MOVE NORTHEAST TO NOVA SCOTIA DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY BASE ON OPERATIONAL GFS AND MOST GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS.
OPERATIONAL ECMWF BRINGS THIS SYSTEM CLOSER TO THE MAINE COAST.
STILL TO SOON TO MAKE CALL ON EXACT TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM. EXPECT
STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW AND COLDER AIR MASS MONDAY AS INTENSIFING
LOW MOVES TO THE NORTH. RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE STATE
TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST WEDESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE INTO THE EVENING W/THE
THE NORTHERN TERMINALS HOLDING ON TO IFR WHILE KBGR AND KBHB WILL
SEE CONDITIONS GO TO MVFR. MVFR CONDITION EXPECTED TO GO TO VFR
LATER TONIGHT OR MORE LIKELY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AS WNW WINDS
TAKE HOLD. VFR FOR KBGR AND BHB ON THURSDAY WHILE THE NORTHERN
TERMINALS COULD SEE TEMPO MVFR ESPECIALLY EARLY IN THE DAY.

SHORT TO LONG TERM:
MAINLY VFR FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. CONDITIONS
DETERIORATING TO AT LEAST MVFR ARE LIKELY SATURDAY AS RAIN OR A
RAIN/SNOW MIX MOVES IN....IFR CONDITIONS ALSO EXPECTED SUNDAY. VFR
CODNITIONS MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HEADLINES EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY. WIND GUSTS
COULD HIT 20 KTS LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY ON THE BACKSIDE ON
THE FRONT AND COOLER AIR MOVING ACROSS THE WATERS. SEAS WILL
REMAIN 3-4 FT INTO THURSDAY.

SHORT TO LONG TERM:
NO HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY. AS A COASTAL LOW
DEVELOPS AND MOVES NORTH SATURDAY WINDS AND WAVES WILL INCREASE
WITH HIGH END SCA TO EVEN GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BY LATE
SATURDAY. HOWEVER IT SHOULD BE NOTED THERE IS STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TRACK OF THE STORM WHICH WILL DETERMINE
THE MAGNITUDE OF THE WINDS AND WAVE HEIGHTS REACHED...

&&

.CLIMATE...CHECK OUT THE LATEST PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT ON
HALLOWEEN WEATHER THROUGHOUT THE YEARS AT CARIBOU AND BANGOR. THE
STATEMENT IS AVAILABLE AT NOUS41 KCAR OR AT PWMPNSCAR.


&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CB/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...FITZSIMMONS
LONG TERM...MIGNONE
AVIATION...CB/HEWITT/FITZSIMMONS
MARINE...CB/HEWITT/FITZSIMMONS
CLIMATE...CB




000
FXUS61 KGYX 291942
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
342 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION BY THIS EVENING. COOLER HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE REGION OVER THE
WEEKEND...BRINGING EVEN COLDER AIR THE CHANCE OF SOME RAIN AND
SNOW. WHILE AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS TO PASS MOSTLY OUT TO SEA...SOME
MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SFC COLD FRONT CURRENTLY LOOKS TO STRETCH SW ALONG THE ST LAWRENCE
VLY AND THEN INTO CENTRAL NY. SHOULD BEGIN TO TRACK MORE QUICKLY
TO THE E OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AND THE BAND OF SHOWERS WILL
SHIFT EWD ACROSS THE CWA THRU LATE THIS AFT AND DURING EARLY
EVENING. THE SHRA SHOULD CLEAR ALL BUT THE MID-COAST BY7 AROUND
00Z...AND SHOULD EXIT THERE BY 02Z.

WESTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD CLEAR OUT ANY LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG LINGERING ALONG THE COAST...AND SKIES SHOULD AT LEAST
PARTIALLY CLEAR OUT IN THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS....WITH CLOUDS LINGERING
IN THE MTNS. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AFTER A WEAK 500MB RIDGE PASSE4S THRU THE CWA EARLY AM...WHICH
COULD PRODUCE A CLUSTER OF MID-HIGH EARLY...SHOULD SEE SFC HIGH
BUILD IN FROM THE W AS WEAK RIDGING DEVELOPS ALOFT. WILL SEE
UPSLOPE CLOUDS AND DOWNSLOPE CLEARING DURING THE DAY....WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. WINDS DROP OFF FOR A MAINLY CLEAR AND
CALM THU NIGHT...SO TEMPS WILL GENERALLY FALL INTO THE 30S.


&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAIN FOCUS OF THE EXTENDED REVOLVES AROUND POWERFUL LOW PRES
SYSTEM THAT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WEEKEND.

A POTENT S/WV WILL CARVE OUT A SEASONABLY STRONG TROF OVER THE ERN
CONUS. ALL MODEL GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT WITH DIGGING A -3 TO -5 SD
CLOSED LOW THRU THE CAROLINAS SAT. THIS EXITS THE COAST AND FUELS
A POWERFUL LOW PRES OVER THE WATERS THAT RACES NEWD. THE FLY IN
THE OINTMENT IS A LEAD S/WV THAT IS FORECAST TO TRIGGER
CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE COAST PRIOR TO THE MAIN UPPER TROF ARRIVING
OVER EAST COAST. THE RESULT IS A PUSH EWD OF THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE...WHICH KEEPS THE SECOND SFC LOW FARTHER OUT TO SEA FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. GIVEN THE CLOSED NATURE OF THE UPPER
LEVELS THIS SFC LOW WILL TRY AND TUCK BACK TOWARDS THE COAST WITH
TIME...SO COASTAL ME IS NOT LEFT HIGH AND DRY. INCREASING
LONGITUDE WILL MEAN INCREASING UNCERTAINTY REGARDING QPF IN THIS
SET UP. PARTS OF NH COULD SEE VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
PCPN...WHILE THE PENOBSCOT BAY REGION SEES CLOSE TO AN INCH OF
LIQUID EQUIVALENT.

ATTM A MULTI MODEL BLEND SEEMS PRUDENT...THOUGH THE INDIVIDUAL
PIECES OF GUIDANCE ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR WITH A NEAR MISS. THE
RESULTING QPF FORECAST IS AROUND 0.10 INCHES FOR THE CT RIVER
VALLEY...INCREASING TO NEAR A HALF INCH AROUND KPWM TO
JACKMAN...AND FINALLY 0.75 INCHES NEAR KRKD. EXAMINING TEMP
PROFILES OF THE VARIOUS MODELS DOES GIVE SUPPORT TO A WIDESPREAD
CHUNK OF THE FORECAST AREA SEEING THE FIRST ACCUMULATING SNFL OF
THE SEASON. THE RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW PRES AND LEAD S/WV HEADING
OUT TO SEA WILL HELP TO MITIGATE WAA BRINGING IN ABOVE FREEZING
AIR ALOFT. MODEL FORECASTS DO WARM SOME ALOFT...BUT AS 925 MB
TEMPS FALL TO NEAR -4 C ALONG THE COAST...THAT SHOULD STAY ALL OR
MOSTLY SNOW...ESPECIALLY HEADING INTO SAT NIGHT AND SUN. BASED ON
THAT FORECAST ALOFT AND EXPECTED HOURLY TEMPS...THE GRIDS REFLECT
3-5 INCHES OF SNFL POSSIBLE FOR CENTRAL ME AND ESPECIALLY THE
MIDCOAST. CLOSER TO KPWM LESS THAN AN INCH IS POSSIBLE...WITH A
DUSTING TO JUST A FEW FLAKES ELSEWHERE.

ALSO OF NOTE ARE THE WIND PROFILES FROM THE VARIOUS FORECAST
MODELS. ATTM THE GFS AND CMC ARE THE MOST BULLISH GUIDANCE. BASED
ON THE WIND ALOFT AND FORECAST MIXED LAYER...GUSTS GREATER THAN 40
KTS WOULD BE POSSIBLE. OVER THE OUTER WATERS EVEN STRONGER GUSTS
IN THE 50-60 KT RANGE WOULD BE POSSIBLE. THE ECMWF IS TEMPERED
SLIGHTLY...WITH OVERLAND GUSTS MORE IN THE 35-40 KT RANGE. GIVEN
THE DIFFICULTY IN REACHING HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA IN MOST
EVENTS THE ECMWF WAS WEIGHTED SLIGHTLY HIGHER IN THE BLEND. EVEN
SO THE FORECAST REFLECTS 35-45 MPH GUSTS ALONG THE COAST...WITH
NEAR STORM FORCE OVER THE WATERS.

THE MAIN POINT IS THAT THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM
TO AFFECT AT LEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS WEEKEND.
HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL ROOM FOR THE FORECAST TO CHANGE IN EITHER
DIRECTION...INCLUDING FARTHER OUT TO SEA AND LESS PCPN.

BEYOND THE WEEKEND...A MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WAS THE PREFERRED
FORECAST METHOD. HIGH PRES AND RIDING ALOFT GENERALLY IN CONTROL
THRU MIDWEEK. TEMPS SHOULD REBOUND NICELY FROM THE COLDER THAN
NORMAL WEEKEND. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PCPN WILL BE THE SECOND HALF
OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...STUBBORN LOW CLOUDS AND FOG SHOULD BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT
ONCE A COLD FRONT PASSES THRU AROUND 00Z. COULD SEE SOME FOG
ADVECT IN FROM THE RIVER AT KLEB. VFR THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THU
NIGHT.

LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS START THE PERIOD FRI. LOW PRES GATHERS
STRENGTH S OF THE AREA ON SAT...WITH CLOUDS SPREADING NWD. MVFR
AND EVENTUALLY IFR CIGS/VSBYS MOVE INTO THE AREA. SNFL IS POSSIBLE
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA LATE SAT INTO SUN. ACCUMULATIONS APPEAR
UNLIKELY OUTSIDE OF CENTRAL ME...BUT IFR VSBYS WOULD BE POSSIBLE
IN ANY SNOW. GRADUALLY IMPROVEMENT BACK TO VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED LATE SUN THRU THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...ALTHOUGH WILL SEE A BRIEF SURGE IN W-NW WINDS
OVERNIGHT BEHIND A COLD FRONT...WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BLO SCA
LVLS THRU THU NIGHT.

LONG TERM...A DEVELOPING COASTAL STORM IS GOING TO GATHER STRENGTH
INTO THE WEEKEND. ATTM A SEASONABLY STRONG LOW PRES IS FORECAST TO
PASS THRU OR NEAR THE GULF OF ME. THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY
ATTM...BUT GALES APPEAR LIKELY WITH STORM FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE.
SEAS WILL ALSO CLIMB TO NEAR 20 FT IN THIS SCENARIO. WINDS AND
SEAS THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRES
TAKES CONTROL OF THE WATERS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...CEMPA
LONG TERM...LEGRO
AVIATION...CEMPA/LEGRO
MARINE...CEMPA/LEGRO




000
FXUS61 KCAR 291914
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
314 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SECOND COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT WITH SOME SHOWERS
THROUGH MIDNIGHT. RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER THEN SETS UP FOR
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE REGION. A
COASTAL STORM WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE REGION BY LATE SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A SECOND COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT
W/ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS. FOG STILL HOLDING ON ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY FROM CARIBOU NORTHWARD AND
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN W/THE WARM AIR ALOFT OVER THE
COOLER AIR IN THE BLYR. FURTHER S, JUST PATCHY FOG ATTM. RADAR
SHOWED A LINE OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
BOUNDARY. THE NAM12 AND RAP WERE DOING WELL W/PLACEMENT OF THE
SHOWERS AND DECIDED TO FOLLOW THIS BLEND INTO THE EVENING W/THE
SECOND PUSH OF SHOWERS. THE RAIN WILL PUSH OFFSHORE BY MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO NO MORE THAN 0.25" AND
THIS WILL BE ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AND INTERIOR DOWNEAST
SECTIONS. THE BLYR WILL MIX OUT LATER TONIGHT AS A WNW FLOW SETS
UP BEHIND THE FRONT W/SOME PARTIAL CLEARING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
DOWNEAST. BEFORE THEN, FOG COULD SET UP FOR A WHILE AND BECOME
DENSE BEFORE THE BLYR MIXES OUT. THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED BY
THE EVENING CREW.

THE AIRMASS BEHIND THIS FRONT IS NOT THAT COLD, SO THE OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL NOT DROP TOO FAR BELOW 40 ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MAINE,
WHILE SOUTH/DOWNEAST WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S. TEMPERATURES
ON THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE NORMAL RANGE AS COOLER AIR FILTERS INTO
THE REGION. STILL SOME PRETTY GOOD RH FROM 925-850MBS ON THURSDAY
TO ALLOW FOR CLOUDS DURING THE DAY LIMITING THE SUNSHINE ACROSS
THE NORTH AND WEST. DOWNSLOPE WILL AID IN MORE SUN FOR THE
DOWNEAST AND COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A RIDGE AT THE SURFACE WILL BUILD IN FOR THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS FILTERING IN COOLER AIR. EXPECT MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES DOWNEAST WITH SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE
NORTH STREAMING NORTH AND EAST AHEAD OF DEVELOPING WAVE OVER THE
GREAT LAKES. EXPECT LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S AND LOW 30S
ACROSS THE NORTH TO THE MID AND UPPER 30S DOWNEAST.

FRIDAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE QUIET AS A COMPLEX WEATHER SYSTEM
BEGINS TO ORGANIZE OFF TO THE SOUTH. SKIES LOOK TO BE MAINLY
CLOUDY IN THE NORTH WITH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS DOWNEAST. HIGHS
WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE LOW 40S NORTH TO THE UPPER 40S TO
AROUND 50 DOWNEAST.

THE FORECAST BECOMES MORE COMPLEX FOR FRIDAY NIGHT HEADING INTO
SATURDAY. A STRONG 500 MB SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE SOUTH AND EAST FROM
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TOWARD THE CAROLINA COAST DURING THIS TIME
WITH LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE DEVELOPING OFF THE EAST COAST.
FORECAST MODELS ARE STILL STRUGGLING WITH THE EXACT EVOLUTION OF
THIS SYSTEM IN TERMS OF TRACK AND TIMING OF THE PRECIP ONSET.
EXPECT SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
EITHER LATE FRIDAY NIGHT OR DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. IF THIS
PRECIP COMES IN EARLY ENOUGH, IT MAY FALL AS A LITTLE SNOW AWAY
FROM THE COAST BEFORE GOING TO RAIN SATURDAY AS TEMPERATURES
MODERATE. AS THE LOW DRAWS CLOSER, PRECIP WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL
OF BECOMING HEAVIER AND STEADIER BY LATE DAY SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT OVER EASTERN AREAS DEPENDING ON THE LOW`S TRACK...
&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
SATURDAY NIGHT THEN MOVE NORTHEAST TO NOVA SCOTIA DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY BASE ON OPERATIONAL GFS AND MOST GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS.
OPERATIONAL ECMWF BRINGS THIS SYSTEM CLOSER TO THE MAINE COAST.
STILL TO SOON TO MAKE CALL ON EXACT TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM. EXPECT
STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW AND COLDER AIR MASS MONDAY AS INTENSIFING
LOW MOVES TO THE NORTH. RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE STATE
TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST WEDESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE INTO THE EVENING W/THE
THE NORTHERN TERMINALS HOLDING ON TO IFR WHILE KBGR AND KBHB WILL
SEE CONDITIONS GO TO MVFR. MVFR CONDITION EXPECTED TO GO TO VFR
LATER TONIGHT OR MORE LIKELY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AS WNW WINDS
TAKE HOLD. VFR FOR KBGR AND BHB ON THURSDAY WHILE THE NORTHERN
TERMINALS COULD SEE TEMPO MVFR ESPECIALLY EARLY IN THE DAY.

SHORT TO LONG TERM:
MAINLY VFR FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. CONDITIONS
DETERIORATING TO AT LEAST MVFR ARE LIKELY SATURDAY AS RAIN OR A
RAIN/SNOW MIX MOVES IN....IFR CONDITIONS ALSO EXPECTED SUNDAY. VFR
CODNITIONS MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HEADLINES EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY. WIND GUSTS
COULD HIT 20 KTS LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY ON THE BACKSIDE ON
THE FRONT AND COOLER AIR MOVING ACROSS THE WATERS. SEAS WILL
REMAIN 3-4 FT INTO THURSDAY.

SHORT TO LONG TERM:
NO HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY. AS A COASTAL LOW
DEVELOPS AND MOVES NORTH SATURDAY WINDS AND WAVES WILL INCREASE
WITH HIGH END SCA TO EVEN GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BY LATE
SATURDAY. HOWEVER IT SHOULD BE NOTED THERE IS STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TRACK OF THE STORM WHICH WILL DETERMINE
THE MAGNITUDE OF THE WINDS AND WAVE HEIGHTS REACHED...

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HEWITT
SHORT TERM...FITZSIMMONS
LONG TERM...MIGNONE
AVIATION...HEWITT/FITZSIMMONS
MARINE...HEWITT/FITZSIMMONS




000
FXUS61 KCAR 291746
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
146 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN OCCLUDED FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT LATER TONIGHT. RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER THEN
SETS UP FOR THE LATE WEEK. LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE COAST WILL
BRING COLD AIR INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. DUE TO
UNCERTAINTIES WITH THE EXACT STORM TRACK...THE POTENTIAL OF
SNOWFALL WITH THIS STORM LATE THIS WEEKEND IS STILL UNCERTAIN AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
130 PM UPDATE...KEPT FOG FOR THE NORTHERN TIER THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND WENT W/PATCHY FOG FOR THE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST. LAPS
SOUNDINGS SHOWED THE WARM AIR ALOFT OVER THE COOLER AIR AT THE
SFC. AREA OF SHOWERS W/FRONT HELPING TO SCOUR OUT THE FOG SOME
W/VSBYS IMPROVING. TEMPERATURES WERE ADJUSTED TO MATCH THE LATEST
OBS. ADJUSTED THE POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE RADAR LOOP SHOWING AND
AREA OF RAIN MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND INTERIOR DOWNEAST. THE
RAP AND NAM12 CONTINUE TO HANDLE THIS WELL. QPF WAS ADJUSTED AS
WELL USING THE ACTUAL OBS FROM 12-18Z.

THE FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT, BRINGING THE
PRECIPITATION TO AN END. RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH THIS EVENING WILL
BE A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS. SOUTH FLOW OUT AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING FRONT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO BE MILD TODAY, AS
HIGHS REACH INTO THE MID AND UPPER 50S NORTH AND THE LOWER 60S
SOUTH. THERE`S NOT A REALLY COLD AIRMASS IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE
FRONT, SO TONIGHT`S LOWS AREN`T EXPECTED TO DROP TOO MUCH.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 40 ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MAINE,
WHILE SOUTH/DOWNEAST WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MAINLY COLDER AND RELATIVELY DRY AS CANADIAN AIR MOVES INTO THE
REGION FROM CNTRL CAN. PDS OF BKN-OVC SC CAN BE XPCTD MSLY ACROSS
NRN PTNS OF THE FA DURG THIS TM. DESPITE THIS BEING A COLDER AIR
MASS...HI TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE AVG...WITH SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING
POSSIBLE THU NGT WITH SLACKENING WINDS IF SKIES CLR. CLDS BEGIN
TO INCREASE FROM THE W LATER FRI INTO FRI NGT AS THE MAIN S/WV
FROM DIGGING SE FROM S CNTRL CAN MOVES INTO THE MID ATLC STATES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WE NOTED THAT THE 00Z DTMNSTC GFS RUN LATE TNGT WAS FURTHER W WITH
THE DEVELOPING LOW TRACKING NE FROM OFF THE MID ATLC STATES COAST
TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA...BUT STILL A LITTLE FURTHER E THAN THE 00Z
DTMNSTC ECMWF RUN...WHICH STILL BRINGS THE LOW TOWARD WRN NOVA
SCOTIA...WITH MUCH MORE PRECIP AFFECTING OUR REGION. FOR NOW GIVEN
THE UNCERTAINTIES... WE BLEND THESE MODEL SOLUTIONS...WHICH BRINGS
LIKELY POPS TO ERN PTNS OF THE FA SAT NGT INTO ERLY SUN EVE AND
MSLY CHC POPS OVR THE W. IF THE LOW WERE TO TRACK SIMILAR TO THE
00Z ECMWF...SIG TO HVY SNFL WOULD BE POSSIBLE ACROSS INLAND PTNS
OF THE FA LATE SAT NGT INTO ERLY SUN EVE...BUT GIVEN THE LACK OF
MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE FACT WPC PREFERS A MORE ERN TRACK AT THIS
TM AND THE EARLINESS OF SEASON...IT WOULD BE RISKY TO HIGHLIGHT
THIS POTENTIAL TO STRONGLY ATTM.

IN ANY EVENT...FOLLOWING THIS STORM...FAIR BUT...COLD AND BRISK
CONDITIONS CAN BE XPCTD LATE SUN NGT THRU MON. AFT A SLACKENING
OF WINDS MON NGT...CLDS WILL IN INCREASE ON TUE WITH A CHC OF
SHWRS LATE TUE AFTN INTO WED WITH ANOTHER WEAKER S/WV FROM THE
UPPER GREAT LKS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO LOW CEILINGS WILL BE THE RULE
FOR MOST SPOTS TODAY AS RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE
SPREADS OVER THE REGION. ANY TERMINALS THAT ARE CURRENTLY MVFR
(PQI/CAR/HUL) WILL DROP TO IFR BY MID MORNING AND REMAIN SO TIL
18Z. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
THEREAFTER AS THE FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. VFR EXPECTED AT ALL
TERMINALS BY 03Z.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: MSLY VFR XPCTD THU THRU FRI ACROSS THE REGION
WITH PDS OF HI MVFR IN BKN-OVC SC POSSIBLE OVR FAR NRN TAF SITES.
CONDITIONS MAY LOWER TO IFR LATER SAT INTO SUN IN RN AND SN
DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF LOW PRES MOVG NNE FROM OFF THE MID ATLC
STATES.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: HEADLINES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. A FEW WIND
GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KT ARE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING AS A LOW
LEVEL JET MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS, BUT THIS SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED.
OTHERWISE, GUSTS UP TO 20 KT ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AND
WAVES 3 TO AROUND 4 FEET.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: NEAR SCA CONDITONS ARE POSSIBLE ERLY THU MORN
BEHIND A SECONDARY COLD FRONT...OTHERWISE...NO HDLNS XPCTD UNTIL
LATER SAT THRU SUN NGT WHEN GALE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE. ATTM...
WE ONLY SHOW STRONG SCA WINDS AND SEAS ATTM...GIVEN UNCERTAINTIES
WITH THE TRACK OF THIS LOW. BUT IF THE TRACK OF THE LOW IS CLOSER
TO THE BAY OF FUNDY AND SE ME...WINDS WILL NEED TO BE INCREASED
TO AT LEAST GALE FORCE OVR THE WATERS FOR THESE PDS...WITH
POSSIBLE WATCHES AND WRNGS.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HEWITT




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