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000
FXUS61 KGYX 310127 AAB
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
927 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SWING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON
THURSDAY...PROVIDING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MAY AFFECT THE AREA WITH SHOWERS ON
SATURDAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEARBY SUNDAY. THE FRONT
WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST ON MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION LATE ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPDATE...LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING HAS ALLOWED THE SHOWERS TO
DISSIPATE JUST SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. OTHER CHANGES WERE
RELATIVELY MINOR TWEAKS TO TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS TO TREND THINGS A
LITTLE COOLER MORE QUICKLY THIS EVENING BEFORE LEVELING OFF AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LOWER LVL CONVERGENCE AREA STILL PRODUCING
SOME SHRA OVER ERN ZONES AND LIFTING SLOWLY NE...WITH A LITTLE
LINE EXTENDING SSW. THESE WILL NOT MOVE TOO MUCH IN THE FEW HOURS
AND SHOULD DRIFT NNE...BEFORE DIMINISHING AROUND 22-23Z.

FOR TONIGHT...SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT SOMEWHAT THIS EVENING AS SOME
WEAK RIDGING MOVES THROUGH BETWEEN THE TWO TROUGHS ALOFT. SHOULD
BE ANOTHER COOL NIGHT...WITH LOWS DOWN INTO 50S MOST SPOTS AND 40S
IN THE COOLER MTN LOCATIONS...AND VALLEY FOG DEVELOPMENT IN THE
USUAL SPOTS. MAY SEE SOME CIRRUS OR AC INCREASING IN THE WEST
TOWARD DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT/...
500 MB WAVE SWINGS THRU ON THU...COINCIDENT WITH 500MB COLD
POOL...WHICH WILL BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME CONVECTION ACROSS THE
CWA...ESPECIALLY IN THE MTNS AND FOOTHILLS. THESE AREAS COULD SEE
A FAIR AMT OF SHOWERS WITH SCT TSRA. CLOSER TO THE COAST...WILL LKLY
SEE MORE SUN AND WARMER TEMPS...WITH LESS COVERAGE OF SHRA...BUT
MORE OF THE CONVECTION WILL PRODUCE THUNDER. SHOULD SEE SOME SMALL
HAIL...WITH AN OUTSIDE THREAT FOR LARGER HAIL IF UPDRAFTS CAN
PULSE UP ENOUGH AND HOLD A CORE UP FOR AWHILE. HIGHS WILL RANGE
FRO AROUND 70 IN THE COOLER MTN SPOTS...TO THE UPPER 70S AND 80 ON
THE COASTAL PLAIN.

THE WAVE EXITS JUST AS WE LOSE DAYTIME HEATING...SO THE SHRA/TSRA
SHOULD DIMINISH FAIRLY RAPIDLY DURING LATE AFT AND EARLY EVE...WITH
CLEARING SKIES AFTER SUNSET...AND ANOTHER NIGHT WITH TEMPS RUNNING
BLO NORMAL...ESPECIALLY IN THE MTNS..,WHERE LOWS WILL FALL INTO
THE 40S ONCE MORE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY. OVERALL CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND CONTINUED SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL BE ENOUGH TO KEEP SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST..ESPECIALLY OVER
THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN ZONES AWAY FROM THE CENTER OF HIGH
PRESSURE. FRIDAY WILL BE PARTLY SUNNY INITIALLY AND THIS ALONG WITH
+13 DEGREES C AT 850MB WILL BOOST MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES INTO THE
UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.

SATURDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK TEMPERATURES COOL DOWN A FEW DEGREES WITH
MORE CLOUD COVER AND WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A MESOLOW
TRAVELING UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH
INTO THE GULF OF MAINE. THE FRONT STALLS JUST OFFSHORE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE BOUNDARY MAY
BRIEFLY FOCUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN SECTIONS. MORE
PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY
NIGHT. COOL DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WNW ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...OTHER THAN KRKD..SHOULD SEE VFR INTO THE EVENING AT
ALL THE TERMINALS...WITH VLY FOG DEVELIPING AT KHIE/KLEB...AND
MAYBE A LITTLE FOG AROUND SUNRISE AT KCON. KRKD IS EXPECTED TO STAY
IFR OR LOWER THRU THE NIGHT...WITH IMPROVEMENT TO VFR THU MORNING.

SCT SHRA/TSRA COULD PRODUCE BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTION THU
AFTERNOON...AND PERHAPS SOME SMALL HAIL.

LONG TERM...PREVAILING VFR FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HOWEVER THERE
WILL BE PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CAUSING MVFR
OF LOWER CONDITIONS. ALSO EXPECT WIDESPREAD FOG EACH MORNING
ESPECIALLY IN PLACES WHERE RAIN HAS FALLEN.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...PERSISTENT SW FLOW OFFSHORE WILL KEEP SEAS IN THE 3-5
FT RANGE AWAY FROM SHORE THU INTO THU NIGHT.

LONG TERM...NO PROBLEMS NOTED.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LEGRO







000
FXUS61 KGYX 310127 AAB
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
927 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SWING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON
THURSDAY...PROVIDING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MAY AFFECT THE AREA WITH SHOWERS ON
SATURDAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEARBY SUNDAY. THE FRONT
WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST ON MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION LATE ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPDATE...LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING HAS ALLOWED THE SHOWERS TO
DISSIPATE JUST SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. OTHER CHANGES WERE
RELATIVELY MINOR TWEAKS TO TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS TO TREND THINGS A
LITTLE COOLER MORE QUICKLY THIS EVENING BEFORE LEVELING OFF AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LOWER LVL CONVERGENCE AREA STILL PRODUCING
SOME SHRA OVER ERN ZONES AND LIFTING SLOWLY NE...WITH A LITTLE
LINE EXTENDING SSW. THESE WILL NOT MOVE TOO MUCH IN THE FEW HOURS
AND SHOULD DRIFT NNE...BEFORE DIMINISHING AROUND 22-23Z.

FOR TONIGHT...SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT SOMEWHAT THIS EVENING AS SOME
WEAK RIDGING MOVES THROUGH BETWEEN THE TWO TROUGHS ALOFT. SHOULD
BE ANOTHER COOL NIGHT...WITH LOWS DOWN INTO 50S MOST SPOTS AND 40S
IN THE COOLER MTN LOCATIONS...AND VALLEY FOG DEVELOPMENT IN THE
USUAL SPOTS. MAY SEE SOME CIRRUS OR AC INCREASING IN THE WEST
TOWARD DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT/...
500 MB WAVE SWINGS THRU ON THU...COINCIDENT WITH 500MB COLD
POOL...WHICH WILL BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME CONVECTION ACROSS THE
CWA...ESPECIALLY IN THE MTNS AND FOOTHILLS. THESE AREAS COULD SEE
A FAIR AMT OF SHOWERS WITH SCT TSRA. CLOSER TO THE COAST...WILL LKLY
SEE MORE SUN AND WARMER TEMPS...WITH LESS COVERAGE OF SHRA...BUT
MORE OF THE CONVECTION WILL PRODUCE THUNDER. SHOULD SEE SOME SMALL
HAIL...WITH AN OUTSIDE THREAT FOR LARGER HAIL IF UPDRAFTS CAN
PULSE UP ENOUGH AND HOLD A CORE UP FOR AWHILE. HIGHS WILL RANGE
FRO AROUND 70 IN THE COOLER MTN SPOTS...TO THE UPPER 70S AND 80 ON
THE COASTAL PLAIN.

THE WAVE EXITS JUST AS WE LOSE DAYTIME HEATING...SO THE SHRA/TSRA
SHOULD DIMINISH FAIRLY RAPIDLY DURING LATE AFT AND EARLY EVE...WITH
CLEARING SKIES AFTER SUNSET...AND ANOTHER NIGHT WITH TEMPS RUNNING
BLO NORMAL...ESPECIALLY IN THE MTNS..,WHERE LOWS WILL FALL INTO
THE 40S ONCE MORE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY. OVERALL CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND CONTINUED SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL BE ENOUGH TO KEEP SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST..ESPECIALLY OVER
THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN ZONES AWAY FROM THE CENTER OF HIGH
PRESSURE. FRIDAY WILL BE PARTLY SUNNY INITIALLY AND THIS ALONG WITH
+13 DEGREES C AT 850MB WILL BOOST MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES INTO THE
UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.

SATURDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK TEMPERATURES COOL DOWN A FEW DEGREES WITH
MORE CLOUD COVER AND WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A MESOLOW
TRAVELING UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH
INTO THE GULF OF MAINE. THE FRONT STALLS JUST OFFSHORE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE BOUNDARY MAY
BRIEFLY FOCUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN SECTIONS. MORE
PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY
NIGHT. COOL DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WNW ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...OTHER THAN KRKD..SHOULD SEE VFR INTO THE EVENING AT
ALL THE TERMINALS...WITH VLY FOG DEVELIPING AT KHIE/KLEB...AND
MAYBE A LITTLE FOG AROUND SUNRISE AT KCON. KRKD IS EXPECTED TO STAY
IFR OR LOWER THRU THE NIGHT...WITH IMPROVEMENT TO VFR THU MORNING.

SCT SHRA/TSRA COULD PRODUCE BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTION THU
AFTERNOON...AND PERHAPS SOME SMALL HAIL.

LONG TERM...PREVAILING VFR FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HOWEVER THERE
WILL BE PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CAUSING MVFR
OF LOWER CONDITIONS. ALSO EXPECT WIDESPREAD FOG EACH MORNING
ESPECIALLY IN PLACES WHERE RAIN HAS FALLEN.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...PERSISTENT SW FLOW OFFSHORE WILL KEEP SEAS IN THE 3-5
FT RANGE AWAY FROM SHORE THU INTO THU NIGHT.

LONG TERM...NO PROBLEMS NOTED.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LEGRO






000
FXUS61 KGYX 302232 AAA
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
632 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SWING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON
THURSDAY...PROVIDING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MAY AFFECT THE AREA WITH SHOWERS ON
SATURDAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEARBY SUNDAY. THE FRONT
WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST ON MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION LATE ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPDATE...SEA BREEZE ADVANCING INLAND IN COMBINATION WITH VARIOUS
LAKE BREEZES ACROSS THE AREA IS RESULTING IN SOME VERY LOCALIZED
CONVERGENCE IN THE LLVLS. THIS HAS TRIGGERED A FEW SHRA INVOF OF
THE SEA BREEZE FNT. HAVE ADJUSTED POP TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE...WHICH
WILL TAPER OFF AFTER SUNSET. HAVE ALSO ADDED FOG TO THE
MIDCOAST...WHERE COASTAL FOG/STRATUS WILL HANG TOUGH THIS EVENING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LOWER LVL CONVERGENCE AREA STILL PRODUCING
SOME SHRA OVER ERN ZONES AND LIFTING SLOWLY NE...WITH A LITTLE
LINE EXTENDING SSW. THESE WILL NOT MOVE TOO MUCH IN THE FEW HOURS
AND SHOULD DRIFT NNE...BEFORE DIMINISHING AROUND 22-23Z.

FOR TONIGHT...SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT SOMEWHAT THIS EVENING AS SOME
WEAK RIDGING MOVES THROUGH BETWEEN THE TWO TROUGHS ALOFT. SHOULD
BE ANOTHER COOL NIGHT...WITH LOWS DOWN INTO 50S MOST SPOTS AND 40S
IN THE COOLER MTN LOCATIONS...AND VALLEY FOG DEVELOPMENT IN THE
USUAL SPOTS. MAY SEE SOME CIRRUS OR AC INCREASING IN THE WEST
TOWARD DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT/...
500 MB WAVE SWINGS THRU ON THU...COINCIDENT WITH 500MB COLD
POOL...WHICH WILL BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME CONVECTION ACROSS THE
CWA...ESPECIALLY IN THE MTNS AND FOOTHILLS. THESE AREAS COULD SEE
A FAIR AMT OF SHOWERS WITH SCT TSRA. CLOSER TO THE COAST...WILL LKLY
SEE MORE SUN AND WARMER TEMPS...WITH LESS COVERAGE OF SHRA...BUT
MORE OF THE CONVECTION WILL PRODUCE THUNDER. SHOULD SEE SOME SMALL
HAIL...WITH AN OUTSIDE THREAT FOR LARGER HAIL IF UPDRAFTS CAN
PULSE UP ENOUGH AND HOLD A CORE UP FOR AWHILE. HIGHS WILL RANGE
FRO AROUND 70 IN THE COOLER MTN SPOTS...TO THE UPPER 70S AND 80 ON
THE COASTAL PLAIN.

THE WAVE EXITS JUST AS WE LOSE DAYTIME HEATING...SO THE SHRA/TSRA
SHOULD DIMINISH FAIRLY RAPIDLY DURING LATE AFT AND EARLY EVE...WITH
CLEARING SKIES AFTER SUNSET...AND ANOTHER NIGHT WITH TEMPS RUNNING
BLO NORMAL...ESPECIALLY IN THE MTNS..,WHERE LOWS WILL FALL INTO
THE 40S ONCE MORE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY. OVERALL CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND CONTINUED SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL BE ENOUGH TO KEEP SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST..ESPECIALLY OVER
THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN ZONES AWAY FROM THE CENTER OF HIGH
PRESSURE. FRIDAY WILL BE PARTLY SUNNY INITIALLY AND THIS ALONG WITH
+13 DEGREES C AT 850MB WILL BOOST MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES INTO THE
UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.

SATURDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK TEMPERATURES COOL DOWN A FEW DEGREES WITH
MORE CLOUD COVER AND WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A MESOLOW
TRAVELING UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH
INTO THE GULF OF MAINE. THE FRONT STALLS JUST OFFSHORE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE BOUNDARY MAY
BRIEFLY FOCUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN SECTIONS. MORE
PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY
NIGHT. COOL DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WNW ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...OTHER THAN KRKD..SHOULD SEE VFR INTO THE EVENING AT
ALL THE TERMINALS...WITH VLY FOG DEVELIPING AT KHIE/KLEB...AND
MAYBE A LITTLE FOG AROUND SUNRISE AT KCON. KRKD IS EXPECTED TO STAY
IFR OR LOWER THRU THE NIGHT...WITH IMPROVEMENT TO VFR THU MORNING.

SCT SHRA/TSRA COULD PRODUCE BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTION THU
AFTERNOON...AND PERHAPS SOME SMALL HAIL.

LONG TERM...PREVAILING VFR FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HOWEVER THERE
WILL BE PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CAUSING MVFR
OF LOWER CONDITIONS. ALSO EXPECT WIDESPREAD FOG EACH MORNING
ESPECIALLY IN PLACES WHERE RAIN HAS FALLEN.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...PERSISTENT SW FLOW OFFSHORE WILL KEEP SEAS IN THE 3-5
FT RANGE AWAY FROM SHORE THU INTO THU NIGHT.

LONG TERM...NO PROBLEMS NOTED.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LEGRO







000
FXUS61 KGYX 302232 AAA
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
632 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SWING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON
THURSDAY...PROVIDING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MAY AFFECT THE AREA WITH SHOWERS ON
SATURDAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEARBY SUNDAY. THE FRONT
WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST ON MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION LATE ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPDATE...SEA BREEZE ADVANCING INLAND IN COMBINATION WITH VARIOUS
LAKE BREEZES ACROSS THE AREA IS RESULTING IN SOME VERY LOCALIZED
CONVERGENCE IN THE LLVLS. THIS HAS TRIGGERED A FEW SHRA INVOF OF
THE SEA BREEZE FNT. HAVE ADJUSTED POP TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE...WHICH
WILL TAPER OFF AFTER SUNSET. HAVE ALSO ADDED FOG TO THE
MIDCOAST...WHERE COASTAL FOG/STRATUS WILL HANG TOUGH THIS EVENING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LOWER LVL CONVERGENCE AREA STILL PRODUCING
SOME SHRA OVER ERN ZONES AND LIFTING SLOWLY NE...WITH A LITTLE
LINE EXTENDING SSW. THESE WILL NOT MOVE TOO MUCH IN THE FEW HOURS
AND SHOULD DRIFT NNE...BEFORE DIMINISHING AROUND 22-23Z.

FOR TONIGHT...SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT SOMEWHAT THIS EVENING AS SOME
WEAK RIDGING MOVES THROUGH BETWEEN THE TWO TROUGHS ALOFT. SHOULD
BE ANOTHER COOL NIGHT...WITH LOWS DOWN INTO 50S MOST SPOTS AND 40S
IN THE COOLER MTN LOCATIONS...AND VALLEY FOG DEVELOPMENT IN THE
USUAL SPOTS. MAY SEE SOME CIRRUS OR AC INCREASING IN THE WEST
TOWARD DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT/...
500 MB WAVE SWINGS THRU ON THU...COINCIDENT WITH 500MB COLD
POOL...WHICH WILL BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME CONVECTION ACROSS THE
CWA...ESPECIALLY IN THE MTNS AND FOOTHILLS. THESE AREAS COULD SEE
A FAIR AMT OF SHOWERS WITH SCT TSRA. CLOSER TO THE COAST...WILL LKLY
SEE MORE SUN AND WARMER TEMPS...WITH LESS COVERAGE OF SHRA...BUT
MORE OF THE CONVECTION WILL PRODUCE THUNDER. SHOULD SEE SOME SMALL
HAIL...WITH AN OUTSIDE THREAT FOR LARGER HAIL IF UPDRAFTS CAN
PULSE UP ENOUGH AND HOLD A CORE UP FOR AWHILE. HIGHS WILL RANGE
FRO AROUND 70 IN THE COOLER MTN SPOTS...TO THE UPPER 70S AND 80 ON
THE COASTAL PLAIN.

THE WAVE EXITS JUST AS WE LOSE DAYTIME HEATING...SO THE SHRA/TSRA
SHOULD DIMINISH FAIRLY RAPIDLY DURING LATE AFT AND EARLY EVE...WITH
CLEARING SKIES AFTER SUNSET...AND ANOTHER NIGHT WITH TEMPS RUNNING
BLO NORMAL...ESPECIALLY IN THE MTNS..,WHERE LOWS WILL FALL INTO
THE 40S ONCE MORE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY. OVERALL CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND CONTINUED SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL BE ENOUGH TO KEEP SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST..ESPECIALLY OVER
THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN ZONES AWAY FROM THE CENTER OF HIGH
PRESSURE. FRIDAY WILL BE PARTLY SUNNY INITIALLY AND THIS ALONG WITH
+13 DEGREES C AT 850MB WILL BOOST MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES INTO THE
UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.

SATURDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK TEMPERATURES COOL DOWN A FEW DEGREES WITH
MORE CLOUD COVER AND WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A MESOLOW
TRAVELING UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH
INTO THE GULF OF MAINE. THE FRONT STALLS JUST OFFSHORE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE BOUNDARY MAY
BRIEFLY FOCUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN SECTIONS. MORE
PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY
NIGHT. COOL DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WNW ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...OTHER THAN KRKD..SHOULD SEE VFR INTO THE EVENING AT
ALL THE TERMINALS...WITH VLY FOG DEVELIPING AT KHIE/KLEB...AND
MAYBE A LITTLE FOG AROUND SUNRISE AT KCON. KRKD IS EXPECTED TO STAY
IFR OR LOWER THRU THE NIGHT...WITH IMPROVEMENT TO VFR THU MORNING.

SCT SHRA/TSRA COULD PRODUCE BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTION THU
AFTERNOON...AND PERHAPS SOME SMALL HAIL.

LONG TERM...PREVAILING VFR FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HOWEVER THERE
WILL BE PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CAUSING MVFR
OF LOWER CONDITIONS. ALSO EXPECT WIDESPREAD FOG EACH MORNING
ESPECIALLY IN PLACES WHERE RAIN HAS FALLEN.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...PERSISTENT SW FLOW OFFSHORE WILL KEEP SEAS IN THE 3-5
FT RANGE AWAY FROM SHORE THU INTO THU NIGHT.

LONG TERM...NO PROBLEMS NOTED.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LEGRO







000
FXUS61 KGYX 302232 AAA
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
632 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SWING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON
THURSDAY...PROVIDING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MAY AFFECT THE AREA WITH SHOWERS ON
SATURDAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEARBY SUNDAY. THE FRONT
WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST ON MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION LATE ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPDATE...SEA BREEZE ADVANCING INLAND IN COMBINATION WITH VARIOUS
LAKE BREEZES ACROSS THE AREA IS RESULTING IN SOME VERY LOCALIZED
CONVERGENCE IN THE LLVLS. THIS HAS TRIGGERED A FEW SHRA INVOF OF
THE SEA BREEZE FNT. HAVE ADJUSTED POP TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE...WHICH
WILL TAPER OFF AFTER SUNSET. HAVE ALSO ADDED FOG TO THE
MIDCOAST...WHERE COASTAL FOG/STRATUS WILL HANG TOUGH THIS EVENING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LOWER LVL CONVERGENCE AREA STILL PRODUCING
SOME SHRA OVER ERN ZONES AND LIFTING SLOWLY NE...WITH A LITTLE
LINE EXTENDING SSW. THESE WILL NOT MOVE TOO MUCH IN THE FEW HOURS
AND SHOULD DRIFT NNE...BEFORE DIMINISHING AROUND 22-23Z.

FOR TONIGHT...SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT SOMEWHAT THIS EVENING AS SOME
WEAK RIDGING MOVES THROUGH BETWEEN THE TWO TROUGHS ALOFT. SHOULD
BE ANOTHER COOL NIGHT...WITH LOWS DOWN INTO 50S MOST SPOTS AND 40S
IN THE COOLER MTN LOCATIONS...AND VALLEY FOG DEVELOPMENT IN THE
USUAL SPOTS. MAY SEE SOME CIRRUS OR AC INCREASING IN THE WEST
TOWARD DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT/...
500 MB WAVE SWINGS THRU ON THU...COINCIDENT WITH 500MB COLD
POOL...WHICH WILL BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME CONVECTION ACROSS THE
CWA...ESPECIALLY IN THE MTNS AND FOOTHILLS. THESE AREAS COULD SEE
A FAIR AMT OF SHOWERS WITH SCT TSRA. CLOSER TO THE COAST...WILL LKLY
SEE MORE SUN AND WARMER TEMPS...WITH LESS COVERAGE OF SHRA...BUT
MORE OF THE CONVECTION WILL PRODUCE THUNDER. SHOULD SEE SOME SMALL
HAIL...WITH AN OUTSIDE THREAT FOR LARGER HAIL IF UPDRAFTS CAN
PULSE UP ENOUGH AND HOLD A CORE UP FOR AWHILE. HIGHS WILL RANGE
FRO AROUND 70 IN THE COOLER MTN SPOTS...TO THE UPPER 70S AND 80 ON
THE COASTAL PLAIN.

THE WAVE EXITS JUST AS WE LOSE DAYTIME HEATING...SO THE SHRA/TSRA
SHOULD DIMINISH FAIRLY RAPIDLY DURING LATE AFT AND EARLY EVE...WITH
CLEARING SKIES AFTER SUNSET...AND ANOTHER NIGHT WITH TEMPS RUNNING
BLO NORMAL...ESPECIALLY IN THE MTNS..,WHERE LOWS WILL FALL INTO
THE 40S ONCE MORE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY. OVERALL CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND CONTINUED SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL BE ENOUGH TO KEEP SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST..ESPECIALLY OVER
THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN ZONES AWAY FROM THE CENTER OF HIGH
PRESSURE. FRIDAY WILL BE PARTLY SUNNY INITIALLY AND THIS ALONG WITH
+13 DEGREES C AT 850MB WILL BOOST MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES INTO THE
UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.

SATURDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK TEMPERATURES COOL DOWN A FEW DEGREES WITH
MORE CLOUD COVER AND WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A MESOLOW
TRAVELING UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH
INTO THE GULF OF MAINE. THE FRONT STALLS JUST OFFSHORE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE BOUNDARY MAY
BRIEFLY FOCUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN SECTIONS. MORE
PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY
NIGHT. COOL DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WNW ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...OTHER THAN KRKD..SHOULD SEE VFR INTO THE EVENING AT
ALL THE TERMINALS...WITH VLY FOG DEVELIPING AT KHIE/KLEB...AND
MAYBE A LITTLE FOG AROUND SUNRISE AT KCON. KRKD IS EXPECTED TO STAY
IFR OR LOWER THRU THE NIGHT...WITH IMPROVEMENT TO VFR THU MORNING.

SCT SHRA/TSRA COULD PRODUCE BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTION THU
AFTERNOON...AND PERHAPS SOME SMALL HAIL.

LONG TERM...PREVAILING VFR FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HOWEVER THERE
WILL BE PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CAUSING MVFR
OF LOWER CONDITIONS. ALSO EXPECT WIDESPREAD FOG EACH MORNING
ESPECIALLY IN PLACES WHERE RAIN HAS FALLEN.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...PERSISTENT SW FLOW OFFSHORE WILL KEEP SEAS IN THE 3-5
FT RANGE AWAY FROM SHORE THU INTO THU NIGHT.

LONG TERM...NO PROBLEMS NOTED.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LEGRO







000
FXUS61 KGYX 302232 AAA
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
632 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SWING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON
THURSDAY...PROVIDING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MAY AFFECT THE AREA WITH SHOWERS ON
SATURDAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEARBY SUNDAY. THE FRONT
WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST ON MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION LATE ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPDATE...SEA BREEZE ADVANCING INLAND IN COMBINATION WITH VARIOUS
LAKE BREEZES ACROSS THE AREA IS RESULTING IN SOME VERY LOCALIZED
CONVERGENCE IN THE LLVLS. THIS HAS TRIGGERED A FEW SHRA INVOF OF
THE SEA BREEZE FNT. HAVE ADJUSTED POP TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE...WHICH
WILL TAPER OFF AFTER SUNSET. HAVE ALSO ADDED FOG TO THE
MIDCOAST...WHERE COASTAL FOG/STRATUS WILL HANG TOUGH THIS EVENING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LOWER LVL CONVERGENCE AREA STILL PRODUCING
SOME SHRA OVER ERN ZONES AND LIFTING SLOWLY NE...WITH A LITTLE
LINE EXTENDING SSW. THESE WILL NOT MOVE TOO MUCH IN THE FEW HOURS
AND SHOULD DRIFT NNE...BEFORE DIMINISHING AROUND 22-23Z.

FOR TONIGHT...SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT SOMEWHAT THIS EVENING AS SOME
WEAK RIDGING MOVES THROUGH BETWEEN THE TWO TROUGHS ALOFT. SHOULD
BE ANOTHER COOL NIGHT...WITH LOWS DOWN INTO 50S MOST SPOTS AND 40S
IN THE COOLER MTN LOCATIONS...AND VALLEY FOG DEVELOPMENT IN THE
USUAL SPOTS. MAY SEE SOME CIRRUS OR AC INCREASING IN THE WEST
TOWARD DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT/...
500 MB WAVE SWINGS THRU ON THU...COINCIDENT WITH 500MB COLD
POOL...WHICH WILL BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME CONVECTION ACROSS THE
CWA...ESPECIALLY IN THE MTNS AND FOOTHILLS. THESE AREAS COULD SEE
A FAIR AMT OF SHOWERS WITH SCT TSRA. CLOSER TO THE COAST...WILL LKLY
SEE MORE SUN AND WARMER TEMPS...WITH LESS COVERAGE OF SHRA...BUT
MORE OF THE CONVECTION WILL PRODUCE THUNDER. SHOULD SEE SOME SMALL
HAIL...WITH AN OUTSIDE THREAT FOR LARGER HAIL IF UPDRAFTS CAN
PULSE UP ENOUGH AND HOLD A CORE UP FOR AWHILE. HIGHS WILL RANGE
FRO AROUND 70 IN THE COOLER MTN SPOTS...TO THE UPPER 70S AND 80 ON
THE COASTAL PLAIN.

THE WAVE EXITS JUST AS WE LOSE DAYTIME HEATING...SO THE SHRA/TSRA
SHOULD DIMINISH FAIRLY RAPIDLY DURING LATE AFT AND EARLY EVE...WITH
CLEARING SKIES AFTER SUNSET...AND ANOTHER NIGHT WITH TEMPS RUNNING
BLO NORMAL...ESPECIALLY IN THE MTNS..,WHERE LOWS WILL FALL INTO
THE 40S ONCE MORE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY. OVERALL CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND CONTINUED SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL BE ENOUGH TO KEEP SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST..ESPECIALLY OVER
THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN ZONES AWAY FROM THE CENTER OF HIGH
PRESSURE. FRIDAY WILL BE PARTLY SUNNY INITIALLY AND THIS ALONG WITH
+13 DEGREES C AT 850MB WILL BOOST MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES INTO THE
UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.

SATURDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK TEMPERATURES COOL DOWN A FEW DEGREES WITH
MORE CLOUD COVER AND WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A MESOLOW
TRAVELING UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH
INTO THE GULF OF MAINE. THE FRONT STALLS JUST OFFSHORE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE BOUNDARY MAY
BRIEFLY FOCUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN SECTIONS. MORE
PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY
NIGHT. COOL DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WNW ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...OTHER THAN KRKD..SHOULD SEE VFR INTO THE EVENING AT
ALL THE TERMINALS...WITH VLY FOG DEVELIPING AT KHIE/KLEB...AND
MAYBE A LITTLE FOG AROUND SUNRISE AT KCON. KRKD IS EXPECTED TO STAY
IFR OR LOWER THRU THE NIGHT...WITH IMPROVEMENT TO VFR THU MORNING.

SCT SHRA/TSRA COULD PRODUCE BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTION THU
AFTERNOON...AND PERHAPS SOME SMALL HAIL.

LONG TERM...PREVAILING VFR FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HOWEVER THERE
WILL BE PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CAUSING MVFR
OF LOWER CONDITIONS. ALSO EXPECT WIDESPREAD FOG EACH MORNING
ESPECIALLY IN PLACES WHERE RAIN HAS FALLEN.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...PERSISTENT SW FLOW OFFSHORE WILL KEEP SEAS IN THE 3-5
FT RANGE AWAY FROM SHORE THU INTO THU NIGHT.

LONG TERM...NO PROBLEMS NOTED.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LEGRO






  [top]

000
FXUS61 KCAR 302219
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
619 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTHWEST TONIGHT. A
DISTURBANCE MOVING AROUND THE UPPER LOW WILL CROSS NORTHERN AND
NORTHWESTERN AREAS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
619 PM UPDATE...WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE IS TRIGGERING A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS EARLY THIS
EVENING...MAINLY ALONG AND NEAR A LINE FROM GREENVILLE TO MARS
HILL. THE SHOWERS ARE MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH AROUND 20 MPH. AT
LEAST ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE FOR A WHILE PAST
SUNSET. A FEW OF THE SHOWERS HAVE DECENT CORES AND MAY PRODUCE
SOME BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS. ALTHOUGH CAN`T ENTIRELY RULE OUT A
LIGHTING STRIKE THERE HAVE NOT BEEN ANY YET. HAVE MADE SOME
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POPS FOR THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE THE FORECAST
IS IN GOOD SHAPE WITH ONLY SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY...WIND...AND
TEMPS FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS AND TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WE WILL REMAIN ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN EDGE OF A LARGE AND DEEP
UPPER LOW TO OUR NORTHWEST TONIGHT. SKIES WILL BECOME CLEAR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT ALTHOUGH SOME FOG COULD PERSIST ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. A SMALL BUT VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE
BOTTOM OF THE TROUGH WILL LIFT INTO THE AREA DURING THE MIDDAY AND
AFTERNOON ON THURSDAY. CAPES ARE AVERAGING AROUND 500 J/KG ACROSS
THE NORTH WHICH IS WEAK TO MODERATE. HOWEVER, THE SHORTWAVE HAS
STRONG UPPER DYNAMICS AND LAPSE RATES ARE STEEP SO THERE WILL BE A
GOOD CHANCE FOR THUNDERSHOWERS, ESPECIALLY IN NORTHWESTERN AREAS,
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS ALOFT ARE STRONG SO ANY DOWNDRAFT CAN
CONTAIN STRONG GUSTY WINDS. THE POTENTIAL FOR HAIL EXISTS BECAUSE
OF STEEP LAPSE RATES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS
EXISTS BECAUSE OF THE STRONG WINDS ALOFT SO WILL KEEP MENTION OF
HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS...MOST NUMEROUS ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS WITH LESSER CHANCES DOWNEAST...WILL OCCUR ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY THURSDAY EVENING WITH THE UPPER DISTURBANCE.
WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING AND THE UPPER DISTURBANCE LIFTING
NORTH OF THE REGION...SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL THEN
DECREASE THROUGH THE EVENING. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. COULD HAVE AN ISOLATED
AFTERNOON SHOWER ACROSS THE NORTH AND MOUNTAINS FRIDAY.
OTHERWISE...PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY. CLOUD COVER
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATER FRIDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE LIFTING NORTHEAST TOWARD THE REGION. THE DISTURBANCE
WILL LIFT ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY...THOUGH THE TRACK AND
STRENGTH OF THE DISTURBANCE ARE STILL UNCERTAIN. EXPECT A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY...WITH AN AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORM ALSO POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT NEAR NORMAL
LEVELS FRIDAY/SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFF THE EAST COAST AT THE BEGINNING OF
THIS PERIOD. AT THE SAME TIME WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO THE DAY SUNDAY.
EXPECT SOME INSTABILITY SO WILL ALSO INCLUDE MENTION OF SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST MONDAY...SO WILL ALSO INCLUDE
SHOWERS WITH THUNDER IN THE AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS FOR
SHOWERS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES
ACROSS THE STATE. WILL INITIALIZE ALL GRIDS WITH SUPERBLEND. HAVE
MADE SOME MANUAL ADJUSTMENTS TO POP AND WEATHER GRIDS.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT ALTHOUGH SOME FOG
MAY INTERMITTENTLY LOWER CONDITIONS TO IFR AT SOME COASTAL SITES
LIKE BAR HARBOR TONIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY,
POSSIBLY LOWERING TO IFR IN THUNDERSHOWERS OVER THE NORTH DURING
THE AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM: VARIABLE CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR WITH ANY
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY EVENING. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
LATER FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. EXPECT MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA TONIGHT
AND THURSDAY. FOG WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO LIMIT VISIBILITIES.

SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. VISIBILITIES
COULD BE REDUCED IN SHOWERS AND PATCHY FOG SATURDAY. FOR SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT EXPECT LIGHT WINDS WITH WAVE COMBINED SEAS
DOMINATED SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY LONG PERIOD WAVE SYSTEMS AROUND 2
FEET/7-8 SECONDS.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...BLOOMER/CB
SHORT TERM...NORCROSS
LONG TERM...MIGNONE
AVIATION...BLOOMER/CB/NORCROSS
MARINE...BLOOMER/CB/NORCROSS





000
FXUS61 KCAR 302016
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
416 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTHWEST TONIGHT. A
DISTURBANCE MOVING AROUND THE UPPER LOW WILL CROSS NORTHERN AND
NORTHWESTERN AREAS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION FRIDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WE WILL REMAIN ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN EDGE OF A LARGE AND DEEP
UPPER LOW TO OUR NORTHWEST TONIGHT. SKIES WILL BECOME CLEAR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT ALTHOUGH SOME FOG COULD PERSIST ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. A SMALL BUT VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE
BOTTOM OF THE TROUGH WILL LIFT INTO THE AREA DURING THE MIDDAY AND
AFTERNOON ON THURSDAY. CAPES ARE AVERAGING AROUND 500 J/KG ACROSS
THE NORTH WHICH IS WEAK TO MODERATE. HOWEVER, THE SHORTWAVE HAS
STRONG UPPER DYNAMICS AND LAPSE RATES ARE STEEP SO THERE WILL BE A
GOOD CHANCE FOR THUNDERSHOWERS, ESPECIALLY IN NORTHWESTERN AREAS,
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS ALOFT ARE STRONG SO ANY DOWNDRAFT CAN
CONTAIN STRONG GUSTY WINDS. THE POTENTIAL FOR HAIL EXISTS BECAUSE
OF STEEP LAPSE RATES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS
EXISTS BECAUSE OF THE STRONG WINDS ALOFT SO WILL KEEP MENTION OF
HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY.
&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS...MOST NUMEROUS ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS WITH LESSER CHANCES DOWNEAST...WILL OCCUR ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY THURSDAY EVENING WITH THE UPPER DISTURBANCE.
WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING AND THE UPPER DISTURBANCE LIFTING
NORTH OF THE REGION...SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL THEN
DECREASE THROUGH THE EVENING. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. COULD HAVE AN ISOLATED
AFTERNOON SHOWER ACROSS THE NORTH AND MOUNTAINS FRIDAY.
OTHERWISE...PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY. CLOUD COVER
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATER FRIDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE LIFTING NORTHEAST TOWARD THE REGION. THE DISTURBANCE
WILL LIFT ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY...THOUGH THE TRACK AND
STRENGTH OF THE DISTURBANCE ARE STILL UNCERTAIN. EXPECT A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY...WITH AN AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORM ALSO POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT NEAR NORMAL
LEVELS FRIDAY/SATURDAY.
&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFF THE EAST COAST AT THE BEGINNING OF
THIS PERIOD. AT THE SAME TIME WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO THE DAY SUNDAY.
EXPECT SOME INSTABILITY SO WILL ALSO INCLUDE MENTION OF SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST MONDAY...SO WILL ALSO INCLUDE
SHOWERS WITH THUNDER IN THE AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS FOR
SHOWERS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES
ACROSS THE STATE. WILL INITIALIZE ALL GRIDS WITH SUPERBLEND. HAVE
MADE SOME MANUAL ADJUSTMENTS TO POP AND WEATHER GRIDS.
&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT ALTHOUGH SOME FOG
MAY INTERMITTENTLY LOWER CONDITIONS TO IFR AT SOME COASTAL SITES
LIKE BAR HARBOR TONIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY,
POSSIBLY LOWERING TO IFR IN THUNDERSHOWERS OVER THE NORTH DURING
THE AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM: VARIABLE CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR WITH ANY
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY EVENING. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
LATER FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. EXPECT MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA TONIGHT
AND THURSDAY. FOG WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO LIMIT VISIBILITIES.

SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. VISIBILITIES
COULD BE REDUCED IN SHOWERS AND PATCHY FOG SATURDAY. FOR SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT EXPECT LIGHT WINDS WITH WAVE COMBINED SEAS
DOMINATED SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY LONG PERIOD WAVE SYSTEMS AROUND 2
FEET/7-8 SECONDS.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...BLOOMER
SHORT TERM...NORCROSS
LONG TERM...MIGNONE
AVIATION...BLOOMER/NORCROSS
MARINE...BLOOMER/NORCROSS/MIGNONE












000
FXUS61 KCAR 302016
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
416 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTHWEST TONIGHT. A
DISTURBANCE MOVING AROUND THE UPPER LOW WILL CROSS NORTHERN AND
NORTHWESTERN AREAS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION FRIDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WE WILL REMAIN ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN EDGE OF A LARGE AND DEEP
UPPER LOW TO OUR NORTHWEST TONIGHT. SKIES WILL BECOME CLEAR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT ALTHOUGH SOME FOG COULD PERSIST ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. A SMALL BUT VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE
BOTTOM OF THE TROUGH WILL LIFT INTO THE AREA DURING THE MIDDAY AND
AFTERNOON ON THURSDAY. CAPES ARE AVERAGING AROUND 500 J/KG ACROSS
THE NORTH WHICH IS WEAK TO MODERATE. HOWEVER, THE SHORTWAVE HAS
STRONG UPPER DYNAMICS AND LAPSE RATES ARE STEEP SO THERE WILL BE A
GOOD CHANCE FOR THUNDERSHOWERS, ESPECIALLY IN NORTHWESTERN AREAS,
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS ALOFT ARE STRONG SO ANY DOWNDRAFT CAN
CONTAIN STRONG GUSTY WINDS. THE POTENTIAL FOR HAIL EXISTS BECAUSE
OF STEEP LAPSE RATES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS
EXISTS BECAUSE OF THE STRONG WINDS ALOFT SO WILL KEEP MENTION OF
HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY.
&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS...MOST NUMEROUS ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS WITH LESSER CHANCES DOWNEAST...WILL OCCUR ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY THURSDAY EVENING WITH THE UPPER DISTURBANCE.
WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING AND THE UPPER DISTURBANCE LIFTING
NORTH OF THE REGION...SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL THEN
DECREASE THROUGH THE EVENING. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. COULD HAVE AN ISOLATED
AFTERNOON SHOWER ACROSS THE NORTH AND MOUNTAINS FRIDAY.
OTHERWISE...PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY. CLOUD COVER
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATER FRIDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE LIFTING NORTHEAST TOWARD THE REGION. THE DISTURBANCE
WILL LIFT ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY...THOUGH THE TRACK AND
STRENGTH OF THE DISTURBANCE ARE STILL UNCERTAIN. EXPECT A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY...WITH AN AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORM ALSO POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT NEAR NORMAL
LEVELS FRIDAY/SATURDAY.
&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFF THE EAST COAST AT THE BEGINNING OF
THIS PERIOD. AT THE SAME TIME WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO THE DAY SUNDAY.
EXPECT SOME INSTABILITY SO WILL ALSO INCLUDE MENTION OF SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST MONDAY...SO WILL ALSO INCLUDE
SHOWERS WITH THUNDER IN THE AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS FOR
SHOWERS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES
ACROSS THE STATE. WILL INITIALIZE ALL GRIDS WITH SUPERBLEND. HAVE
MADE SOME MANUAL ADJUSTMENTS TO POP AND WEATHER GRIDS.
&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT ALTHOUGH SOME FOG
MAY INTERMITTENTLY LOWER CONDITIONS TO IFR AT SOME COASTAL SITES
LIKE BAR HARBOR TONIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY,
POSSIBLY LOWERING TO IFR IN THUNDERSHOWERS OVER THE NORTH DURING
THE AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM: VARIABLE CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR WITH ANY
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY EVENING. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
LATER FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. EXPECT MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA TONIGHT
AND THURSDAY. FOG WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO LIMIT VISIBILITIES.

SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. VISIBILITIES
COULD BE REDUCED IN SHOWERS AND PATCHY FOG SATURDAY. FOR SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT EXPECT LIGHT WINDS WITH WAVE COMBINED SEAS
DOMINATED SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY LONG PERIOD WAVE SYSTEMS AROUND 2
FEET/7-8 SECONDS.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...BLOOMER
SHORT TERM...NORCROSS
LONG TERM...MIGNONE
AVIATION...BLOOMER/NORCROSS
MARINE...BLOOMER/NORCROSS/MIGNONE













000
FXUS61 KGYX 301934
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
334 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SWING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON
THURSDAY...PROVIDING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MAY AFFECT THE AREA WITH SHOWERS ON
SATURDAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEARBY SUNDAY. THE FRONT
WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST ON MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION LATE ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
LOWER LVL CONVERGENCE AREA STILL PRODUCING SOME SHRA OVER ERN
ZONES AND LIFTING SLOWLY NE...WITH A LITTLE LINE EXTENDING SSW.
THESE WILL NOT MOVE TOO MUCH IN THE FEW HOURS AND SHOULD DRIFT
NNE...BEFORE DIMINISHING AROUND 22-23Z.

FOR TONIGHT...SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT SOMEWHAT THIS EVENING AS SOME
WEAK RIDGING MOVES THROUGH BETWEEN THE TWO TROUGHS ALOFT. SHOULD
BE ANOTHER COOL NIGHT...WITH LOWS DOWN INTO 50S MOST SPOTS AND 40S
IN THE COOLER MTN LOCATIONS...AND VALLEY FOG DEVELOPMENT IN THE
USUAL SPOTS. MAY SEE SOME CIRRUS OR AC INCREASING IN THE WEST
TOWARD DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
500 MB WAVE SWINGS THRU ON THU...COINCIDENT WITH 500MB COLD
POOL...WHICH WILL BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME CONVECTION ACROSS THE
CWA...ESPECIALLY IN THE MTNS AND FOOTHILLS. THESE AREAS COULD SEE
A FAIR AMT OF SHOWERS WITH SCT TSRA. CLOSER TO THE COAST...WILL LKLY
SEE MORE SUN AND WARMER TEMPS...WITH LESS COVERAGE OF SHRA...BUT
MORE OF THE CONVECTION WILL PRODUCE THUNDER. SHOULD SEE SOME SMALL
HAIL...WITH AN OUTSIDE THREAT FOR LARGER HAIL IF UPDRAFTS CAN
PULSE UP ENOUGH AND HOLD A CORE UP FOR AWHILE. HIGHS WILL RANGE
FRO AROUND 70 IN THE COOLER MTN SPOTS...TO THE UPPER 70S AND 80 ON
THE COASTAL PLAIN.

THE WAVE EXITS JUST AS WE LOSE DAYTIME HEATING...SO THE SHRA/TSRA
SHOULD DIMINISH FAIRLY RAPIDLY DURING LATE AFT AND EARLY EVE...WITH
CLEARING SKIES AFTER SUNSET...AND ANOTHER NIGHT WITH TEMPS RUNNING
BLO NORMAL...ESPECIALLY IN THE MTNS..,WHERE LOWS WILL FALL INTO
THE 40S ONCE MORE.


&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY. OVERALL CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND CONTINUED SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL BE ENOUGH TO KEEP SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST..ESPECIALLY OVER
THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN ZONES AWAY FROM THE CENTER OF HIGH
PRESSURE. FRIDAY WILL BE PARTLY SUNNY INITIALLY AND THIS ALONG WITH
+13 DEGREES C AT 850MB WILL BOOST MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES INTO THE
UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.

SATURDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK TEMPERATURES COOL DOWN A FEW DEGREES WITH
MORE CLOUD COVER AND WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A MESOLOW
TRAVELING UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH
INTO THE GULF OF MAINE. THE FRONT STALLS JUST OFFSHORE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE BOUNDARY MAY
BRIEFLY FOCUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN SECTIONS. MORE
PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY
NIGHT. COOL DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WNW ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...OTHER THAN KRKD..SHOULD SEE VFR INTO THE EVENING AT
ALL THE TERMINALS...WITH VLY FOG DEVELIPING AT KHIE/KLEB...AND
MAYBE A LITTLE FOG AROUND SUNRISE AT KCON. KRKD IS EXPECTED TO STAY
IFR OR LOWER THRU THE NIGHT...WITH IMPROVEMENT TO VFR THU MORNING.

SCT SHRA/TSRA COULD PRODUCE BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTION THU
AFTERNOON...AND PERHAPS SOME SMALL HAIL.

LONG TERM...PREVAILING VFR FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HOWEVER THERE
WILL BE PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CAUSING MVFR
OF LOWER CONDITIONS. ALSO EXPECT WIDESPREAD FOG EACH MORNING
ESPECIALLY IN PLACES WHERE RAIN HAS FALLEN.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...PERSISTENT SW FLOW OFFSHORE WILL KEEP SEAS IN THE 3-5
FT RANGE AWAY FROM SHORE THU INTO THU NIGHT.

LONG TERM...NO PROBLEMS NOTED.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

CEMPA/HANES








000
FXUS61 KGYX 301600
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1200 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT IN FROM THE WEST
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE EAST
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MAY AFFECT
THE AREA WITH SHOWERS ON SATURDAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN
NEARBY SUNDAY. THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST ON MONDAY. A
SECONDARY FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
11 AM...FORECAST UPDATED TO COVER ONGOING WEATHER EVENTS... AS
WEAK SFC CONVERGENCE BETWEEN E ONSHORE FLOW AND NRN FLOW INLAND
COMBINES WITH WEAK MID LVL FORCING /FNTGNS AROUND 700MB/ TO PRODUCE
CLOUDS AND A FEW LIGHT SHRA. MESO MODELS SHIFT THIS BOUNDARY
SLIGHTLY NNW DURING THE DAY...AND THE MID LVL FORCING WEAKENS LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL. EXPECT THE SHOWER ACTIVITY TO FOLLOW THE
BOUNDARY SLOWLY NNW AND BECOME MORE WIDELY SCT. HOWEVER...WILL
LKLY SEE CLOUDS DIMINISH...AND THIS COULD GENERATE SOME ADDED
INSTABILITY...ENOUGH TO PRODUCE MORE CONVECTIVE SHRA OR SOME THUNDER
AS WE MOVE INTO THIS AFTERNOON.

630 AM UPDATE...HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST MAINLY FOR MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS IN SKY COVER BASED ON LATEST TRENDS IN SATELLITE DATA.
CLOUDS ARE HOLDING TOUGH...BUT SOME BREAKS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
LATER THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...FORECAST REMAINS LARGELY UNCHANGED.

CYCLONIC FLOW AND COLD TEMPS ALOFT IN TANDEM WITH WEAK SFC
CONVERGENCE WILL RESULT IN VARIABLE CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
TODAY. HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR RAIN APPEARS TO BE OVER CENTRAL MAINE
EASTWARD TO OUR EASTERN ZONES. MAX TEMPS WERE DERIVED MAINLY FROM
A BLEND OF THE MAV AND MET GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ANY LIGHT SHOWERS DISSIPATE EARLY THIS EVENING AND WILL RESULT IN
A FAIR WX NIGHT ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL PROBABLY LINGER. ON
THURSDAY...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ROTATING AROUND THE LARGER PARENT
UPPER LOW TO OUR NW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. FORCING FOR
ASCENT WORKING IN TANDEM WITH COLD AIR ALOFT /AS LOW AS -17C AT
500MB/ SHOULD SPARK SHOWERS AND WIDELY SCT THUNDERSTORMS. THE
HIGHEST PROB FOR RAIN WILL BE OVER THE INTERIOR WHERE SHOWERS
SHOULD END UP BEING WIDESPREAD. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO TO
INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS...WITH HAIL BEING
THE MAIN THREAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM THE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
RETURN FLOW WILL BRING WARMER AIR BACK INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFFSHORE. EXPECT A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.

HIGH PRESSURE FORECAST TO SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY AS A
WARM FRONT SETS UP SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. SATURDAY LOOKING WARMER AND
MORE HUMID WITH A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS AWAY
FROM THE COAST. WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO WATCH THE ECMWF AS IT HAS
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING JUST TO OUR EAST AND MAY PROVIDE FOR
SHOWERS ALL DAY.

FRONT LIFTS INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY NIGHT AND STALLS ON
SUNDAY. SUNDAY LOOKING MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN
SOUTHERN AND COASTAL SECTIONS. SEVERAL WAVES OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE
FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL
KEEP SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST IN THE SOUTH THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST ON MONDAY. EXPECT
DIMINISHING CLOUDS BUT A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST WILL BRING A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE MOUNTAINS. HIGH TEMPS WILL ONCE AGAIN TOP OUT IN THE MID 70S
TO LOWER 80S.

COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SAG SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM...LOCAL VALLEY FOG THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO VFR
CONDITIONS. WDLY SCT SHOWERS MAY BRING CONDITIONS DOWN BRIEFLY
THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD
ON THURSDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE AWAY FROM COASTAL TERMINALS.

LONG TERM...VFR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...A FEW 5 FOOTERS POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN WATERS EARLY
THIS MORNING...OTHERWISE SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT. MARGINAL SCA SEAS MAY RETURN TO THE
OCEAN WATERS ON THU.

LONG TERM...NO PROBLEMS NOTED.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...










000
FXUS61 KGYX 301600
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1200 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT IN FROM THE WEST
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE EAST
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MAY AFFECT
THE AREA WITH SHOWERS ON SATURDAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN
NEARBY SUNDAY. THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST ON MONDAY. A
SECONDARY FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
11 AM...FORECAST UPDATED TO COVER ONGOING WEATHER EVENTS... AS
WEAK SFC CONVERGENCE BETWEEN E ONSHORE FLOW AND NRN FLOW INLAND
COMBINES WITH WEAK MID LVL FORCING /FNTGNS AROUND 700MB/ TO PRODUCE
CLOUDS AND A FEW LIGHT SHRA. MESO MODELS SHIFT THIS BOUNDARY
SLIGHTLY NNW DURING THE DAY...AND THE MID LVL FORCING WEAKENS LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL. EXPECT THE SHOWER ACTIVITY TO FOLLOW THE
BOUNDARY SLOWLY NNW AND BECOME MORE WIDELY SCT. HOWEVER...WILL
LKLY SEE CLOUDS DIMINISH...AND THIS COULD GENERATE SOME ADDED
INSTABILITY...ENOUGH TO PRODUCE MORE CONVECTIVE SHRA OR SOME THUNDER
AS WE MOVE INTO THIS AFTERNOON.

630 AM UPDATE...HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST MAINLY FOR MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS IN SKY COVER BASED ON LATEST TRENDS IN SATELLITE DATA.
CLOUDS ARE HOLDING TOUGH...BUT SOME BREAKS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
LATER THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...FORECAST REMAINS LARGELY UNCHANGED.

CYCLONIC FLOW AND COLD TEMPS ALOFT IN TANDEM WITH WEAK SFC
CONVERGENCE WILL RESULT IN VARIABLE CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
TODAY. HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR RAIN APPEARS TO BE OVER CENTRAL MAINE
EASTWARD TO OUR EASTERN ZONES. MAX TEMPS WERE DERIVED MAINLY FROM
A BLEND OF THE MAV AND MET GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ANY LIGHT SHOWERS DISSIPATE EARLY THIS EVENING AND WILL RESULT IN
A FAIR WX NIGHT ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL PROBABLY LINGER. ON
THURSDAY...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ROTATING AROUND THE LARGER PARENT
UPPER LOW TO OUR NW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. FORCING FOR
ASCENT WORKING IN TANDEM WITH COLD AIR ALOFT /AS LOW AS -17C AT
500MB/ SHOULD SPARK SHOWERS AND WIDELY SCT THUNDERSTORMS. THE
HIGHEST PROB FOR RAIN WILL BE OVER THE INTERIOR WHERE SHOWERS
SHOULD END UP BEING WIDESPREAD. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO TO
INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS...WITH HAIL BEING
THE MAIN THREAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM THE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
RETURN FLOW WILL BRING WARMER AIR BACK INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFFSHORE. EXPECT A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.

HIGH PRESSURE FORECAST TO SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY AS A
WARM FRONT SETS UP SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. SATURDAY LOOKING WARMER AND
MORE HUMID WITH A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS AWAY
FROM THE COAST. WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO WATCH THE ECMWF AS IT HAS
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING JUST TO OUR EAST AND MAY PROVIDE FOR
SHOWERS ALL DAY.

FRONT LIFTS INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY NIGHT AND STALLS ON
SUNDAY. SUNDAY LOOKING MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN
SOUTHERN AND COASTAL SECTIONS. SEVERAL WAVES OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE
FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL
KEEP SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST IN THE SOUTH THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST ON MONDAY. EXPECT
DIMINISHING CLOUDS BUT A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST WILL BRING A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE MOUNTAINS. HIGH TEMPS WILL ONCE AGAIN TOP OUT IN THE MID 70S
TO LOWER 80S.

COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SAG SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM...LOCAL VALLEY FOG THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO VFR
CONDITIONS. WDLY SCT SHOWERS MAY BRING CONDITIONS DOWN BRIEFLY
THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD
ON THURSDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE AWAY FROM COASTAL TERMINALS.

LONG TERM...VFR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...A FEW 5 FOOTERS POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN WATERS EARLY
THIS MORNING...OTHERWISE SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT. MARGINAL SCA SEAS MAY RETURN TO THE
OCEAN WATERS ON THU.

LONG TERM...NO PROBLEMS NOTED.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...











000
FXUS61 KCAR 301547
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1147 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY. A
STRONGER DISTURBANCE FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL APPROACH ON
THURSDAY.&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
11:45 AM UPDATE...MADE SOME MINOR UPDATES TO MODIFY CLOUD COVER
AND RAISE TEMPS A COUPLE DEGREES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE
NORTH. OTHERWISE, THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL PASS OVER THE
PINE TREE STATE TODAY. THIS COMBINED WITH LINGERING MOISTURE WILL
ALLOW SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THEY WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING AS THE
DISTURBANCE PASSES TO OUR NORTHEAST AND DAYTIME HEATING IS LOST.
INSTABILITY WILL BE MEAGER, SO THE THREAT OF ANY THUNDER WILL BE
LOW. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 70S. THE ONLY CONCERN
FOR TONIGHT WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG, ESPECIALLY
ANYWHERE THAT GETS RAIN TODAY. LOWS WILL BE AROUND 50 IN THE NORTH
AND THE LOWER TO MID 50S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODELS CONT TO ADVERTISE A FAIRLY STRONG...NEGATIVELY TILTED S/WV
ROTATING ARND A LARGE MID LVL VORTEX OVR CNTRL CAN...SW TO NE INTO
WRN PTNS OF THE FA FROM THE GREAT LKS LATE THU INTO THU EVE. SFC
AMD ML CAPES WILL BE LMTD TO 500-1000 J/KG THU AFTN AND ERLY EVE
WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT STEEP MID LVL LAPSE RATES...MDTLY STRONG
WIND SHEAR AND UPPER DYNAMICS ALF AND FZLS ARND 11.5 KFT SUGGEST
MENTIONING ENHANCED WORDING FOR GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL...WHICH WE DO
WITH LIKELY AND GREATER POPS. BOTH CVRG AND INTENSITY OF TSTMS
SHOULD DECREASE SEWRD FROM MAX CATEGORICAL POPS OVR NW ME WITH
THIS SYSTEM...TO ONLY SLGT CHC POPS OF SHWRS ALG THE DOWNEAST
COAST. BEHIND THIS S/WV...SKIES SHOULD BECOME MCLR AS SFC WINDS
DECOUPLE OVR MOST OF THE FA LATE THU NGT...BRINGING THE POTENTIAL
OF PATCHY LATE NGT/ERLY MORN FOG ON FRI.

FRI LOOKS TO BE MSLY FAIR WITH PTLY CLDY SKIES BY AFTN. WITH SBCAPES
OF LESS THAN 200 J/KG OVR FAR NW PTNS OF THE FA FRI AFTN...ONLY A CHC
OF SHWRS IS MENTIONED HERE...WITH THE REST OF THE FA REMAINING
MSLY DRY. FRI NGT LOOKS TO BE MSLY FAIR ATTM. AFTN HI TEMPS WILL
BE AOA NORMAL BOTH DAYS WITH NEAR SEASONAL OVRNGT LOWS BOTH NGTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
INCREASING MID AND LOW LVL MOISTURE FROM THE SW AS DEEP SWRLY FLOW
ALF CONTS OVR THE REGION WILL RESULT IN AFTN/EVE SCT SHWRS AND TSTMS
FOR MSLY NRN/CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA SAT THRU MON OF THE LONG
RANGE...WITH THE BEST POTENTIAL POSSIBLY BEING MON AFTN AS A MORE
SIG S/WV CROSSES THE REGION. THEN BOTH THE 00Z OPNL GFS AND ECMWF
MODELS INDICATE A FOLLOW-UP S/WV FROM A MORE NRN BR OF THE UPPER
JET BRINGING A COLD FRONT ALG WITH ANOTHER CHC OF AFTN AND EVE
SHWRS/TSTMS TO MOST OF THE REGION. WE TRIED TO PLAY FOR MORE OF
A DIURNAL...AFTN HTG CYCLE OF POPS THIS UPDATE TO INDICATE A BETTER
POTENTIAL OF RAIN FREE CONDITIONS DURING THE LATE NGT THRU MORN
HRS EACH DAY FOR THOSE WANTING TO PLAN OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES. OTHERWISE...
HI AND LOW TEMPS EACH DAY WILL AGAIN BE AT OR JUST ABV AVG FOR THIS
TM OF SEASON.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: OUTSIDE OF LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE IN FOG EARLY THIS
MORNING AND AGAIN LATE TONIGHT, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS MAY RESULT IN
OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS THIS AFTERNOON, BUT THIS IS EXPECTED TO
BE SHORT-LIVED.


SHORT TO LONG TERM: MSLY VFR CONDITIONS XPCTD ACROSS OUR TAF SITES
THRU THIS PTN OF THE FCST...WITH BRIEF PDS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE IN ANY AFTN/EVE TSTM AND HEAVIER SHWRS AND LATE NGT/ERLY
MORN PATCHY FOG.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: 400 AM UPDATE..HAVE ALLOWED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
TO EXPIRE AS SEAS ARE NOW BELOW 5 FEET. NO OTHER CHANGES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...WAVES ARE STICKING RIGHT AROUND 5 FEET
EARLY THIS MORNING, BUT EXPECT THEY WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE
THROUGH SUNRISE. THEREFORE, HAVE ALLOWED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
TO REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR NOW, BUT WILL LIKELY ALLOW IT TO EXPIRE
AT 4 AM. OTHERWISE, QUIET CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON OUR WATERS FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: WINDS AND WV HTS ARE XPCTD TO REMAIN BELOW SCA
CRITERIA THRU THESE PTNS OF THE FCST. WENT WITH ABOUT 75 TO 80
PERCENT OF WW3 WV GUIDANCE FOR THIS UPDATE.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...HASTINGS/MCB
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...HASTINGS/VJN
MARINE...HASTINGS/VJN







000
FXUS61 KCAR 301547
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1147 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY. A
STRONGER DISTURBANCE FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL APPROACH ON
THURSDAY.&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
11:45 AM UPDATE...MADE SOME MINOR UPDATES TO MODIFY CLOUD COVER
AND RAISE TEMPS A COUPLE DEGREES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE
NORTH. OTHERWISE, THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL PASS OVER THE
PINE TREE STATE TODAY. THIS COMBINED WITH LINGERING MOISTURE WILL
ALLOW SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THEY WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING AS THE
DISTURBANCE PASSES TO OUR NORTHEAST AND DAYTIME HEATING IS LOST.
INSTABILITY WILL BE MEAGER, SO THE THREAT OF ANY THUNDER WILL BE
LOW. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 70S. THE ONLY CONCERN
FOR TONIGHT WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG, ESPECIALLY
ANYWHERE THAT GETS RAIN TODAY. LOWS WILL BE AROUND 50 IN THE NORTH
AND THE LOWER TO MID 50S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODELS CONT TO ADVERTISE A FAIRLY STRONG...NEGATIVELY TILTED S/WV
ROTATING ARND A LARGE MID LVL VORTEX OVR CNTRL CAN...SW TO NE INTO
WRN PTNS OF THE FA FROM THE GREAT LKS LATE THU INTO THU EVE. SFC
AMD ML CAPES WILL BE LMTD TO 500-1000 J/KG THU AFTN AND ERLY EVE
WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT STEEP MID LVL LAPSE RATES...MDTLY STRONG
WIND SHEAR AND UPPER DYNAMICS ALF AND FZLS ARND 11.5 KFT SUGGEST
MENTIONING ENHANCED WORDING FOR GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL...WHICH WE DO
WITH LIKELY AND GREATER POPS. BOTH CVRG AND INTENSITY OF TSTMS
SHOULD DECREASE SEWRD FROM MAX CATEGORICAL POPS OVR NW ME WITH
THIS SYSTEM...TO ONLY SLGT CHC POPS OF SHWRS ALG THE DOWNEAST
COAST. BEHIND THIS S/WV...SKIES SHOULD BECOME MCLR AS SFC WINDS
DECOUPLE OVR MOST OF THE FA LATE THU NGT...BRINGING THE POTENTIAL
OF PATCHY LATE NGT/ERLY MORN FOG ON FRI.

FRI LOOKS TO BE MSLY FAIR WITH PTLY CLDY SKIES BY AFTN. WITH SBCAPES
OF LESS THAN 200 J/KG OVR FAR NW PTNS OF THE FA FRI AFTN...ONLY A CHC
OF SHWRS IS MENTIONED HERE...WITH THE REST OF THE FA REMAINING
MSLY DRY. FRI NGT LOOKS TO BE MSLY FAIR ATTM. AFTN HI TEMPS WILL
BE AOA NORMAL BOTH DAYS WITH NEAR SEASONAL OVRNGT LOWS BOTH NGTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
INCREASING MID AND LOW LVL MOISTURE FROM THE SW AS DEEP SWRLY FLOW
ALF CONTS OVR THE REGION WILL RESULT IN AFTN/EVE SCT SHWRS AND TSTMS
FOR MSLY NRN/CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA SAT THRU MON OF THE LONG
RANGE...WITH THE BEST POTENTIAL POSSIBLY BEING MON AFTN AS A MORE
SIG S/WV CROSSES THE REGION. THEN BOTH THE 00Z OPNL GFS AND ECMWF
MODELS INDICATE A FOLLOW-UP S/WV FROM A MORE NRN BR OF THE UPPER
JET BRINGING A COLD FRONT ALG WITH ANOTHER CHC OF AFTN AND EVE
SHWRS/TSTMS TO MOST OF THE REGION. WE TRIED TO PLAY FOR MORE OF
A DIURNAL...AFTN HTG CYCLE OF POPS THIS UPDATE TO INDICATE A BETTER
POTENTIAL OF RAIN FREE CONDITIONS DURING THE LATE NGT THRU MORN
HRS EACH DAY FOR THOSE WANTING TO PLAN OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES. OTHERWISE...
HI AND LOW TEMPS EACH DAY WILL AGAIN BE AT OR JUST ABV AVG FOR THIS
TM OF SEASON.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: OUTSIDE OF LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE IN FOG EARLY THIS
MORNING AND AGAIN LATE TONIGHT, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS MAY RESULT IN
OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS THIS AFTERNOON, BUT THIS IS EXPECTED TO
BE SHORT-LIVED.


SHORT TO LONG TERM: MSLY VFR CONDITIONS XPCTD ACROSS OUR TAF SITES
THRU THIS PTN OF THE FCST...WITH BRIEF PDS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE IN ANY AFTN/EVE TSTM AND HEAVIER SHWRS AND LATE NGT/ERLY
MORN PATCHY FOG.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: 400 AM UPDATE..HAVE ALLOWED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
TO EXPIRE AS SEAS ARE NOW BELOW 5 FEET. NO OTHER CHANGES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...WAVES ARE STICKING RIGHT AROUND 5 FEET
EARLY THIS MORNING, BUT EXPECT THEY WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE
THROUGH SUNRISE. THEREFORE, HAVE ALLOWED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
TO REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR NOW, BUT WILL LIKELY ALLOW IT TO EXPIRE
AT 4 AM. OTHERWISE, QUIET CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON OUR WATERS FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: WINDS AND WV HTS ARE XPCTD TO REMAIN BELOW SCA
CRITERIA THRU THESE PTNS OF THE FCST. WENT WITH ABOUT 75 TO 80
PERCENT OF WW3 WV GUIDANCE FOR THIS UPDATE.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...HASTINGS/MCB
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...HASTINGS/VJN
MARINE...HASTINGS/VJN






000
FXUS61 KGYX 301535
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1103 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT IN FROM THE WEST
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE EAST
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MAY AFFECT
THE AREA WITH SHOWERS ON SATURDAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN
NEARBY SUNDAY. THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST ON MONDAY. A
SECONDARY FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
11 AM...FORECAST UPDATED TO COVER ONGOING WEATHER EVENTS... AS
WEAK SFC CONVERGENCE BETWEEN E ONSHORE FLOW AND NRN FLOW INLAND
COMBINES WITH WEAK MID LVL FORCING /FG AROUND 700MB/ TO PRODUCE
CLOUDS AND A FEW LIGHT SHRA. MESO MODELS SHIFT THIS BOUNDARY
SLIGHTLY NNW DURING THE DAY...AND THE MID LVL FORCING WEAKENS LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL. EXPECT THE SHOWER ACTIVITY TO FOLLOW THE
BOUNDARY SLOWLY NNW AND BECOME MORE WIDELY SCT. HOWEVER...WILL
LKLY SEE CLOUDS DIMINISH...AND THIS COULD GENERATE SOME ADDED
INSTABILITY...ENOUGH TO PRODUCE MORE CONVECTIVE SHRA OR SOME THUNDER
AS WE MOVE INTO THIS AFTERNOON.

630 AM UPDATE...HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST MAINLY FOR MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS IN SKY COVER BASED ON LATEST TRENDS IN SATELLITE DATA.
CLOUDS ARE HOLDING TOUGH...BUT SOME BREAKS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
LATER THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...FORECAST REMAINS LARGELY UNCHANGED.

CYCLONIC FLOW AND COLD TEMPS ALOFT IN TANDEM WITH WEAK SFC
CONVERGENCE WILL RESULT IN VARIABLE CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
TODAY. HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR RAIN APPEARS TO BE OVER CENTRAL MAINE
EASTWARD TO OUR EASTERN ZONES. MAX TEMPS WERE DERIVED MAINLY FROM
A BLEND OF THE MAV AND MET GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ANY LIGHT SHOWERS DISSIPATE EARLY THIS EVENING AND WILL RESULT IN
A FAIR WX NIGHT ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL PROBABLY LINGER. ON
THURSDAY...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ROTATING AROUND THE LARGER PARENT
UPPER LOW TO OUR NW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. FORCING FOR
ASCENT WORKING IN TANDEM WITH COLD AIR ALOFT /AS LOW AS -17C AT
500MB/ SHOULD SPARK SHOWERS AND WIDELY SCT THUNDERSTORMS. THE
HIGHEST PROB FOR RAIN WILL BE OVER THE INTERIOR WHERE SHOWERS
SHOULD END UP BEING WIDESPREAD. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO TO
INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS...WITH HAIL BEING
THE MAIN THREAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM THE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
RETURN FLOW WILL BRING WARMER AIR BACK INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFFSHORE. EXPECT A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.

HIGH PRESSURE FORECAST TO SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY AS A
WARM FRONT SETS UP SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. SATURDAY LOOKING WARMER AND
MORE HUMID WITH A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS AWAY
FROM THE COAST. WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO WATCH THE ECMWF AS IT HAS
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING JUST TO OUR EAST AND MAY PROVIDE FOR
SHOWERS ALL DAY.

FRONT LIFTS INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY NIGHT AND STALLS ON
SUNDAY. SUNDAY LOOKING MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN
SOUTHERN AND COASTAL SECTIONS. SEVERAL WAVES OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE
FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL
KEEP SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST IN THE SOUTH THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST ON MONDAY. EXPECT
DIMINISHING CLOUDS BUT A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST WILL BRING A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE MOUNTAINS. HIGH TEMPS WILL ONCE AGAIN TOP OUT IN THE MID 70S
TO LOWER 80S.

COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SAG SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM...LOCAL VALLEY FOG THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO VFR
CONDITIONS. WDLY SCT SHOWERS MAY BRING CONDITIONS DOWN BRIEFLY
THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD
ON THURSDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE AWAY FROM COASTAL TERMINALS.

LONG TERM...VFR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...A FEW 5 FOOTERS POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN WATERS EARLY
THIS MORNING...OTHERWISE SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT. MARGINAL SCA SEAS MAY RETURN TO THE
OCEAN WATERS ON THU.

LONG TERM...NO PROBLEMS NOTED.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...









000
FXUS61 KGYX 301535
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1103 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT IN FROM THE WEST
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE EAST
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MAY AFFECT
THE AREA WITH SHOWERS ON SATURDAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN
NEARBY SUNDAY. THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST ON MONDAY. A
SECONDARY FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
11 AM...FORECAST UPDATED TO COVER ONGOING WEATHER EVENTS... AS
WEAK SFC CONVERGENCE BETWEEN E ONSHORE FLOW AND NRN FLOW INLAND
COMBINES WITH WEAK MID LVL FORCING /FG AROUND 700MB/ TO PRODUCE
CLOUDS AND A FEW LIGHT SHRA. MESO MODELS SHIFT THIS BOUNDARY
SLIGHTLY NNW DURING THE DAY...AND THE MID LVL FORCING WEAKENS LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL. EXPECT THE SHOWER ACTIVITY TO FOLLOW THE
BOUNDARY SLOWLY NNW AND BECOME MORE WIDELY SCT. HOWEVER...WILL
LKLY SEE CLOUDS DIMINISH...AND THIS COULD GENERATE SOME ADDED
INSTABILITY...ENOUGH TO PRODUCE MORE CONVECTIVE SHRA OR SOME THUNDER
AS WE MOVE INTO THIS AFTERNOON.

630 AM UPDATE...HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST MAINLY FOR MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS IN SKY COVER BASED ON LATEST TRENDS IN SATELLITE DATA.
CLOUDS ARE HOLDING TOUGH...BUT SOME BREAKS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
LATER THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...FORECAST REMAINS LARGELY UNCHANGED.

CYCLONIC FLOW AND COLD TEMPS ALOFT IN TANDEM WITH WEAK SFC
CONVERGENCE WILL RESULT IN VARIABLE CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
TODAY. HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR RAIN APPEARS TO BE OVER CENTRAL MAINE
EASTWARD TO OUR EASTERN ZONES. MAX TEMPS WERE DERIVED MAINLY FROM
A BLEND OF THE MAV AND MET GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ANY LIGHT SHOWERS DISSIPATE EARLY THIS EVENING AND WILL RESULT IN
A FAIR WX NIGHT ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL PROBABLY LINGER. ON
THURSDAY...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ROTATING AROUND THE LARGER PARENT
UPPER LOW TO OUR NW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. FORCING FOR
ASCENT WORKING IN TANDEM WITH COLD AIR ALOFT /AS LOW AS -17C AT
500MB/ SHOULD SPARK SHOWERS AND WIDELY SCT THUNDERSTORMS. THE
HIGHEST PROB FOR RAIN WILL BE OVER THE INTERIOR WHERE SHOWERS
SHOULD END UP BEING WIDESPREAD. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO TO
INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS...WITH HAIL BEING
THE MAIN THREAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM THE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
RETURN FLOW WILL BRING WARMER AIR BACK INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFFSHORE. EXPECT A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.

HIGH PRESSURE FORECAST TO SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY AS A
WARM FRONT SETS UP SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. SATURDAY LOOKING WARMER AND
MORE HUMID WITH A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS AWAY
FROM THE COAST. WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO WATCH THE ECMWF AS IT HAS
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING JUST TO OUR EAST AND MAY PROVIDE FOR
SHOWERS ALL DAY.

FRONT LIFTS INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY NIGHT AND STALLS ON
SUNDAY. SUNDAY LOOKING MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN
SOUTHERN AND COASTAL SECTIONS. SEVERAL WAVES OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE
FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL
KEEP SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST IN THE SOUTH THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST ON MONDAY. EXPECT
DIMINISHING CLOUDS BUT A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST WILL BRING A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE MOUNTAINS. HIGH TEMPS WILL ONCE AGAIN TOP OUT IN THE MID 70S
TO LOWER 80S.

COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SAG SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM...LOCAL VALLEY FOG THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO VFR
CONDITIONS. WDLY SCT SHOWERS MAY BRING CONDITIONS DOWN BRIEFLY
THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD
ON THURSDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE AWAY FROM COASTAL TERMINALS.

LONG TERM...VFR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...A FEW 5 FOOTERS POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN WATERS EARLY
THIS MORNING...OTHERWISE SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT. MARGINAL SCA SEAS MAY RETURN TO THE
OCEAN WATERS ON THU.

LONG TERM...NO PROBLEMS NOTED.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...









000
FXUS61 KGYX 301535
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1103 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT IN FROM THE WEST
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE EAST
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MAY AFFECT
THE AREA WITH SHOWERS ON SATURDAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN
NEARBY SUNDAY. THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST ON MONDAY. A
SECONDARY FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
11 AM...FORECAST UPDATED TO COVER ONGOING WEATHER EVENTS... AS
WEAK SFC CONVERGENCE BETWEEN E ONSHORE FLOW AND NRN FLOW INLAND
COMBINES WITH WEAK MID LVL FORCING /FG AROUND 700MB/ TO PRODUCE
CLOUDS AND A FEW LIGHT SHRA. MESO MODELS SHIFT THIS BOUNDARY
SLIGHTLY NNW DURING THE DAY...AND THE MID LVL FORCING WEAKENS LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL. EXPECT THE SHOWER ACTIVITY TO FOLLOW THE
BOUNDARY SLOWLY NNW AND BECOME MORE WIDELY SCT. HOWEVER...WILL
LKLY SEE CLOUDS DIMINISH...AND THIS COULD GENERATE SOME ADDED
INSTABILITY...ENOUGH TO PRODUCE MORE CONVECTIVE SHRA OR SOME THUNDER
AS WE MOVE INTO THIS AFTERNOON.

630 AM UPDATE...HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST MAINLY FOR MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS IN SKY COVER BASED ON LATEST TRENDS IN SATELLITE DATA.
CLOUDS ARE HOLDING TOUGH...BUT SOME BREAKS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
LATER THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...FORECAST REMAINS LARGELY UNCHANGED.

CYCLONIC FLOW AND COLD TEMPS ALOFT IN TANDEM WITH WEAK SFC
CONVERGENCE WILL RESULT IN VARIABLE CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
TODAY. HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR RAIN APPEARS TO BE OVER CENTRAL MAINE
EASTWARD TO OUR EASTERN ZONES. MAX TEMPS WERE DERIVED MAINLY FROM
A BLEND OF THE MAV AND MET GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ANY LIGHT SHOWERS DISSIPATE EARLY THIS EVENING AND WILL RESULT IN
A FAIR WX NIGHT ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL PROBABLY LINGER. ON
THURSDAY...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ROTATING AROUND THE LARGER PARENT
UPPER LOW TO OUR NW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. FORCING FOR
ASCENT WORKING IN TANDEM WITH COLD AIR ALOFT /AS LOW AS -17C AT
500MB/ SHOULD SPARK SHOWERS AND WIDELY SCT THUNDERSTORMS. THE
HIGHEST PROB FOR RAIN WILL BE OVER THE INTERIOR WHERE SHOWERS
SHOULD END UP BEING WIDESPREAD. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO TO
INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS...WITH HAIL BEING
THE MAIN THREAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM THE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
RETURN FLOW WILL BRING WARMER AIR BACK INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFFSHORE. EXPECT A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.

HIGH PRESSURE FORECAST TO SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY AS A
WARM FRONT SETS UP SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. SATURDAY LOOKING WARMER AND
MORE HUMID WITH A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS AWAY
FROM THE COAST. WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO WATCH THE ECMWF AS IT HAS
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING JUST TO OUR EAST AND MAY PROVIDE FOR
SHOWERS ALL DAY.

FRONT LIFTS INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY NIGHT AND STALLS ON
SUNDAY. SUNDAY LOOKING MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN
SOUTHERN AND COASTAL SECTIONS. SEVERAL WAVES OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE
FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL
KEEP SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST IN THE SOUTH THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST ON MONDAY. EXPECT
DIMINISHING CLOUDS BUT A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST WILL BRING A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE MOUNTAINS. HIGH TEMPS WILL ONCE AGAIN TOP OUT IN THE MID 70S
TO LOWER 80S.

COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SAG SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM...LOCAL VALLEY FOG THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO VFR
CONDITIONS. WDLY SCT SHOWERS MAY BRING CONDITIONS DOWN BRIEFLY
THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD
ON THURSDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE AWAY FROM COASTAL TERMINALS.

LONG TERM...VFR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...A FEW 5 FOOTERS POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN WATERS EARLY
THIS MORNING...OTHERWISE SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT. MARGINAL SCA SEAS MAY RETURN TO THE
OCEAN WATERS ON THU.

LONG TERM...NO PROBLEMS NOTED.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...









000
FXUS61 KGYX 301535
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1103 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT IN FROM THE WEST
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE EAST
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MAY AFFECT
THE AREA WITH SHOWERS ON SATURDAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN
NEARBY SUNDAY. THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST ON MONDAY. A
SECONDARY FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
11 AM...FORECAST UPDATED TO COVER ONGOING WEATHER EVENTS... AS
WEAK SFC CONVERGENCE BETWEEN E ONSHORE FLOW AND NRN FLOW INLAND
COMBINES WITH WEAK MID LVL FORCING /FG AROUND 700MB/ TO PRODUCE
CLOUDS AND A FEW LIGHT SHRA. MESO MODELS SHIFT THIS BOUNDARY
SLIGHTLY NNW DURING THE DAY...AND THE MID LVL FORCING WEAKENS LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL. EXPECT THE SHOWER ACTIVITY TO FOLLOW THE
BOUNDARY SLOWLY NNW AND BECOME MORE WIDELY SCT. HOWEVER...WILL
LKLY SEE CLOUDS DIMINISH...AND THIS COULD GENERATE SOME ADDED
INSTABILITY...ENOUGH TO PRODUCE MORE CONVECTIVE SHRA OR SOME THUNDER
AS WE MOVE INTO THIS AFTERNOON.

630 AM UPDATE...HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST MAINLY FOR MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS IN SKY COVER BASED ON LATEST TRENDS IN SATELLITE DATA.
CLOUDS ARE HOLDING TOUGH...BUT SOME BREAKS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
LATER THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...FORECAST REMAINS LARGELY UNCHANGED.

CYCLONIC FLOW AND COLD TEMPS ALOFT IN TANDEM WITH WEAK SFC
CONVERGENCE WILL RESULT IN VARIABLE CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
TODAY. HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR RAIN APPEARS TO BE OVER CENTRAL MAINE
EASTWARD TO OUR EASTERN ZONES. MAX TEMPS WERE DERIVED MAINLY FROM
A BLEND OF THE MAV AND MET GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ANY LIGHT SHOWERS DISSIPATE EARLY THIS EVENING AND WILL RESULT IN
A FAIR WX NIGHT ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL PROBABLY LINGER. ON
THURSDAY...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ROTATING AROUND THE LARGER PARENT
UPPER LOW TO OUR NW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. FORCING FOR
ASCENT WORKING IN TANDEM WITH COLD AIR ALOFT /AS LOW AS -17C AT
500MB/ SHOULD SPARK SHOWERS AND WIDELY SCT THUNDERSTORMS. THE
HIGHEST PROB FOR RAIN WILL BE OVER THE INTERIOR WHERE SHOWERS
SHOULD END UP BEING WIDESPREAD. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO TO
INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS...WITH HAIL BEING
THE MAIN THREAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM THE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
RETURN FLOW WILL BRING WARMER AIR BACK INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFFSHORE. EXPECT A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.

HIGH PRESSURE FORECAST TO SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY AS A
WARM FRONT SETS UP SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. SATURDAY LOOKING WARMER AND
MORE HUMID WITH A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS AWAY
FROM THE COAST. WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO WATCH THE ECMWF AS IT HAS
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING JUST TO OUR EAST AND MAY PROVIDE FOR
SHOWERS ALL DAY.

FRONT LIFTS INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY NIGHT AND STALLS ON
SUNDAY. SUNDAY LOOKING MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN
SOUTHERN AND COASTAL SECTIONS. SEVERAL WAVES OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE
FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL
KEEP SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST IN THE SOUTH THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST ON MONDAY. EXPECT
DIMINISHING CLOUDS BUT A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST WILL BRING A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE MOUNTAINS. HIGH TEMPS WILL ONCE AGAIN TOP OUT IN THE MID 70S
TO LOWER 80S.

COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SAG SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM...LOCAL VALLEY FOG THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO VFR
CONDITIONS. WDLY SCT SHOWERS MAY BRING CONDITIONS DOWN BRIEFLY
THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD
ON THURSDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE AWAY FROM COASTAL TERMINALS.

LONG TERM...VFR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...A FEW 5 FOOTERS POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN WATERS EARLY
THIS MORNING...OTHERWISE SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT. MARGINAL SCA SEAS MAY RETURN TO THE
OCEAN WATERS ON THU.

LONG TERM...NO PROBLEMS NOTED.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...









000
FXUS61 KGYX 301503
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1103 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT IN FROM THE WEST
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE EAST
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MAY AFFECT
THE AREA WITH SHOWERS ON SATURDAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN
NEARBY SUNDAY. THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST ON MONDAY. A
SECONDARY FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
11 AM...FORECAST UPDATED TO COVER ONGOING WEATHER EVENTS... AS
WEAK SFC CONVERGENCE BETWEEN E ONSHORE FLOW AND NRN FLOW INLAND
COMBINES WITH WEAK MID LVL FORCING /FG AROUND 700MB/ TO PRODUCE
CLOUDS AND A FEW LIGHT SHRA. MESO MODELS SHIFT THIS BOUNDARY
SLIGHTLY NNW DURING THE DAY...AND THE MID LVL FORCING WEAKENS LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL. EXPECT THE SHOWER ACTIVITY TO FOLLOW THE
BOUNDARY SLOWLY NNW AND BECOME MORE WIDELY SCT. HOWEVER...WILL
LKLY SEE CLOUDS DIMINISH...AND THIS COULD GENERATE SOME ADDED
INSTABILITY...ENOUGH TO PRODUCE MORE A FEW CONVECTIVE SHRA OR SOME
THUNDER AS WE MOVE INTO THIS AFTERNOON.

630 AM UPDATE...HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST MAINLY FOR MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS IN SKY COVER BASED ON LATEST TRENDS IN SATELLITE DATA.
CLOUDS ARE HOLDING TOUGH...BUT SOME BREAKS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
LATER THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...FORECAST REMAINS LARGELY UNCHANGED.

CYCLONIC FLOW AND COLD TEMPS ALOFT IN TANDEM WITH WEAK SFC
CONVERGENCE WILL RESULT IN VARIABLE CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
TODAY. HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR RAIN APPEARS TO BE OVER CENTRAL MAINE
EASTWARD TO OUR EASTERN ZONES. MAX TEMPS WERE DERIVED MAINLY FROM
A BLEND OF THE MAV AND MET GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ANY LIGHT SHOWERS DISSIPATE EARLY THIS EVENING AND WILL RESULT IN
A FAIR WX NIGHT ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL PROBABLY LINGER. ON
THURSDAY...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ROTATING AROUND THE LARGER PARENT
UPPER LOW TO OUR NW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. FORCING FOR
ASCENT WORKING IN TANDEM WITH COLD AIR ALOFT /AS LOW AS -17C AT
500MB/ SHOULD SPARK SHOWERS AND WIDELY SCT THUNDERSTORMS. THE
HIGHEST PROB FOR RAIN WILL BE OVER THE INTERIOR WHERE SHOWERS
SHOULD END UP BEING WIDESPREAD. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO TO
INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS...WITH HAIL BEING
THE MAIN THREAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM THE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
RETURN FLOW WILL BRING WARMER AIR BACK INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFFSHORE. EXPECT A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.

HIGH PRESSURE FORECAST TO SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY AS A
WARM FRONT SETS UP SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. SATURDAY LOOKING WARMER AND
MORE HUMID WITH A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS AWAY
FROM THE COAST. WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO WATCH THE ECMWF AS IT HAS
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING JUST TO OUR EAST AND MAY PROVIDE FOR
SHOWERS ALL DAY.

FRONT LIFTS INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY NIGHT AND STALLS ON
SUNDAY. SUNDAY LOOKING MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN
SOUTHERN AND COASTAL SECTIONS. SEVERAL WAVES OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE
FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL
KEEP SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST IN THE SOUTH THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST ON MONDAY. EXPECT
DIMINISHING CLOUDS BUT A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST WILL BRING A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE MOUNTAINS. HIGH TEMPS WILL ONCE AGAIN TOP OUT IN THE MID 70S
TO LOWER 80S.

COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SAG SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM...LOCAL VALLEY FOG THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO VFR
CONDITIONS. WDLY SCT SHOWERS MAY BRING CONDITIONS DOWN BRIEFLY
THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD
ON THURSDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE AWAY FROM COASTAL TERMINALS.

LONG TERM...VFR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...A FEW 5 FOOTERS POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN WATERS EARLY
THIS MORNING...OTHERWISE SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT. MARGINAL SCA SEAS MAY RETURN TO THE
OCEAN WATERS ON THU.

LONG TERM...NO PROBLEMS NOTED.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...






000
FXUS61 KGYX 301503
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1103 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT IN FROM THE WEST
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE EAST
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MAY AFFECT
THE AREA WITH SHOWERS ON SATURDAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN
NEARBY SUNDAY. THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST ON MONDAY. A
SECONDARY FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
11 AM...FORECAST UPDATED TO COVER ONGOING WEATHER EVENTS... AS
WEAK SFC CONVERGENCE BETWEEN E ONSHORE FLOW AND NRN FLOW INLAND
COMBINES WITH WEAK MID LVL FORCING /FG AROUND 700MB/ TO PRODUCE
CLOUDS AND A FEW LIGHT SHRA. MESO MODELS SHIFT THIS BOUNDARY
SLIGHTLY NNW DURING THE DAY...AND THE MID LVL FORCING WEAKENS LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL. EXPECT THE SHOWER ACTIVITY TO FOLLOW THE
BOUNDARY SLOWLY NNW AND BECOME MORE WIDELY SCT. HOWEVER...WILL
LKLY SEE CLOUDS DIMINISH...AND THIS COULD GENERATE SOME ADDED
INSTABILITY...ENOUGH TO PRODUCE MORE A FEW CONVECTIVE SHRA OR SOME
THUNDER AS WE MOVE INTO THIS AFTERNOON.

630 AM UPDATE...HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST MAINLY FOR MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS IN SKY COVER BASED ON LATEST TRENDS IN SATELLITE DATA.
CLOUDS ARE HOLDING TOUGH...BUT SOME BREAKS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
LATER THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...FORECAST REMAINS LARGELY UNCHANGED.

CYCLONIC FLOW AND COLD TEMPS ALOFT IN TANDEM WITH WEAK SFC
CONVERGENCE WILL RESULT IN VARIABLE CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
TODAY. HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR RAIN APPEARS TO BE OVER CENTRAL MAINE
EASTWARD TO OUR EASTERN ZONES. MAX TEMPS WERE DERIVED MAINLY FROM
A BLEND OF THE MAV AND MET GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ANY LIGHT SHOWERS DISSIPATE EARLY THIS EVENING AND WILL RESULT IN
A FAIR WX NIGHT ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL PROBABLY LINGER. ON
THURSDAY...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ROTATING AROUND THE LARGER PARENT
UPPER LOW TO OUR NW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. FORCING FOR
ASCENT WORKING IN TANDEM WITH COLD AIR ALOFT /AS LOW AS -17C AT
500MB/ SHOULD SPARK SHOWERS AND WIDELY SCT THUNDERSTORMS. THE
HIGHEST PROB FOR RAIN WILL BE OVER THE INTERIOR WHERE SHOWERS
SHOULD END UP BEING WIDESPREAD. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO TO
INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS...WITH HAIL BEING
THE MAIN THREAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM THE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
RETURN FLOW WILL BRING WARMER AIR BACK INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFFSHORE. EXPECT A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.

HIGH PRESSURE FORECAST TO SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY AS A
WARM FRONT SETS UP SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. SATURDAY LOOKING WARMER AND
MORE HUMID WITH A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS AWAY
FROM THE COAST. WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO WATCH THE ECMWF AS IT HAS
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING JUST TO OUR EAST AND MAY PROVIDE FOR
SHOWERS ALL DAY.

FRONT LIFTS INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY NIGHT AND STALLS ON
SUNDAY. SUNDAY LOOKING MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN
SOUTHERN AND COASTAL SECTIONS. SEVERAL WAVES OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE
FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL
KEEP SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST IN THE SOUTH THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST ON MONDAY. EXPECT
DIMINISHING CLOUDS BUT A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST WILL BRING A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE MOUNTAINS. HIGH TEMPS WILL ONCE AGAIN TOP OUT IN THE MID 70S
TO LOWER 80S.

COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SAG SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM...LOCAL VALLEY FOG THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO VFR
CONDITIONS. WDLY SCT SHOWERS MAY BRING CONDITIONS DOWN BRIEFLY
THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD
ON THURSDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE AWAY FROM COASTAL TERMINALS.

LONG TERM...VFR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...A FEW 5 FOOTERS POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN WATERS EARLY
THIS MORNING...OTHERWISE SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT. MARGINAL SCA SEAS MAY RETURN TO THE
OCEAN WATERS ON THU.

LONG TERM...NO PROBLEMS NOTED.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...






000
FXUS61 KGYX 301503
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1103 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT IN FROM THE WEST
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE EAST
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MAY AFFECT
THE AREA WITH SHOWERS ON SATURDAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN
NEARBY SUNDAY. THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST ON MONDAY. A
SECONDARY FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
11 AM...FORECAST UPDATED TO COVER ONGOING WEATHER EVENTS... AS
WEAK SFC CONVERGENCE BETWEEN E ONSHORE FLOW AND NRN FLOW INLAND
COMBINES WITH WEAK MID LVL FORCING /FG AROUND 700MB/ TO PRODUCE
CLOUDS AND A FEW LIGHT SHRA. MESO MODELS SHIFT THIS BOUNDARY
SLIGHTLY NNW DURING THE DAY...AND THE MID LVL FORCING WEAKENS LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL. EXPECT THE SHOWER ACTIVITY TO FOLLOW THE
BOUNDARY SLOWLY NNW AND BECOME MORE WIDELY SCT. HOWEVER...WILL
LKLY SEE CLOUDS DIMINISH...AND THIS COULD GENERATE SOME ADDED
INSTABILITY...ENOUGH TO PRODUCE MORE A FEW CONVECTIVE SHRA OR SOME
THUNDER AS WE MOVE INTO THIS AFTERNOON.

630 AM UPDATE...HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST MAINLY FOR MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS IN SKY COVER BASED ON LATEST TRENDS IN SATELLITE DATA.
CLOUDS ARE HOLDING TOUGH...BUT SOME BREAKS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
LATER THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...FORECAST REMAINS LARGELY UNCHANGED.

CYCLONIC FLOW AND COLD TEMPS ALOFT IN TANDEM WITH WEAK SFC
CONVERGENCE WILL RESULT IN VARIABLE CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
TODAY. HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR RAIN APPEARS TO BE OVER CENTRAL MAINE
EASTWARD TO OUR EASTERN ZONES. MAX TEMPS WERE DERIVED MAINLY FROM
A BLEND OF THE MAV AND MET GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ANY LIGHT SHOWERS DISSIPATE EARLY THIS EVENING AND WILL RESULT IN
A FAIR WX NIGHT ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL PROBABLY LINGER. ON
THURSDAY...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ROTATING AROUND THE LARGER PARENT
UPPER LOW TO OUR NW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. FORCING FOR
ASCENT WORKING IN TANDEM WITH COLD AIR ALOFT /AS LOW AS -17C AT
500MB/ SHOULD SPARK SHOWERS AND WIDELY SCT THUNDERSTORMS. THE
HIGHEST PROB FOR RAIN WILL BE OVER THE INTERIOR WHERE SHOWERS
SHOULD END UP BEING WIDESPREAD. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO TO
INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS...WITH HAIL BEING
THE MAIN THREAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM THE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
RETURN FLOW WILL BRING WARMER AIR BACK INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFFSHORE. EXPECT A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.

HIGH PRESSURE FORECAST TO SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY AS A
WARM FRONT SETS UP SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. SATURDAY LOOKING WARMER AND
MORE HUMID WITH A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS AWAY
FROM THE COAST. WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO WATCH THE ECMWF AS IT HAS
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING JUST TO OUR EAST AND MAY PROVIDE FOR
SHOWERS ALL DAY.

FRONT LIFTS INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY NIGHT AND STALLS ON
SUNDAY. SUNDAY LOOKING MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN
SOUTHERN AND COASTAL SECTIONS. SEVERAL WAVES OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE
FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL
KEEP SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST IN THE SOUTH THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST ON MONDAY. EXPECT
DIMINISHING CLOUDS BUT A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST WILL BRING A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE MOUNTAINS. HIGH TEMPS WILL ONCE AGAIN TOP OUT IN THE MID 70S
TO LOWER 80S.

COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SAG SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM...LOCAL VALLEY FOG THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO VFR
CONDITIONS. WDLY SCT SHOWERS MAY BRING CONDITIONS DOWN BRIEFLY
THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD
ON THURSDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE AWAY FROM COASTAL TERMINALS.

LONG TERM...VFR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...A FEW 5 FOOTERS POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN WATERS EARLY
THIS MORNING...OTHERWISE SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT. MARGINAL SCA SEAS MAY RETURN TO THE
OCEAN WATERS ON THU.

LONG TERM...NO PROBLEMS NOTED.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...






000
FXUS61 KGYX 301503
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1103 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT IN FROM THE WEST
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE EAST
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MAY AFFECT
THE AREA WITH SHOWERS ON SATURDAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN
NEARBY SUNDAY. THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST ON MONDAY. A
SECONDARY FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
11 AM...FORECAST UPDATED TO COVER ONGOING WEATHER EVENTS... AS
WEAK SFC CONVERGENCE BETWEEN E ONSHORE FLOW AND NRN FLOW INLAND
COMBINES WITH WEAK MID LVL FORCING /FG AROUND 700MB/ TO PRODUCE
CLOUDS AND A FEW LIGHT SHRA. MESO MODELS SHIFT THIS BOUNDARY
SLIGHTLY NNW DURING THE DAY...AND THE MID LVL FORCING WEAKENS LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL. EXPECT THE SHOWER ACTIVITY TO FOLLOW THE
BOUNDARY SLOWLY NNW AND BECOME MORE WIDELY SCT. HOWEVER...WILL
LKLY SEE CLOUDS DIMINISH...AND THIS COULD GENERATE SOME ADDED
INSTABILITY...ENOUGH TO PRODUCE MORE A FEW CONVECTIVE SHRA OR SOME
THUNDER AS WE MOVE INTO THIS AFTERNOON.

630 AM UPDATE...HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST MAINLY FOR MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS IN SKY COVER BASED ON LATEST TRENDS IN SATELLITE DATA.
CLOUDS ARE HOLDING TOUGH...BUT SOME BREAKS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
LATER THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...FORECAST REMAINS LARGELY UNCHANGED.

CYCLONIC FLOW AND COLD TEMPS ALOFT IN TANDEM WITH WEAK SFC
CONVERGENCE WILL RESULT IN VARIABLE CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
TODAY. HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR RAIN APPEARS TO BE OVER CENTRAL MAINE
EASTWARD TO OUR EASTERN ZONES. MAX TEMPS WERE DERIVED MAINLY FROM
A BLEND OF THE MAV AND MET GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ANY LIGHT SHOWERS DISSIPATE EARLY THIS EVENING AND WILL RESULT IN
A FAIR WX NIGHT ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL PROBABLY LINGER. ON
THURSDAY...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ROTATING AROUND THE LARGER PARENT
UPPER LOW TO OUR NW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. FORCING FOR
ASCENT WORKING IN TANDEM WITH COLD AIR ALOFT /AS LOW AS -17C AT
500MB/ SHOULD SPARK SHOWERS AND WIDELY SCT THUNDERSTORMS. THE
HIGHEST PROB FOR RAIN WILL BE OVER THE INTERIOR WHERE SHOWERS
SHOULD END UP BEING WIDESPREAD. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO TO
INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS...WITH HAIL BEING
THE MAIN THREAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM THE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
RETURN FLOW WILL BRING WARMER AIR BACK INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFFSHORE. EXPECT A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.

HIGH PRESSURE FORECAST TO SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY AS A
WARM FRONT SETS UP SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. SATURDAY LOOKING WARMER AND
MORE HUMID WITH A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS AWAY
FROM THE COAST. WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO WATCH THE ECMWF AS IT HAS
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING JUST TO OUR EAST AND MAY PROVIDE FOR
SHOWERS ALL DAY.

FRONT LIFTS INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY NIGHT AND STALLS ON
SUNDAY. SUNDAY LOOKING MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN
SOUTHERN AND COASTAL SECTIONS. SEVERAL WAVES OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE
FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL
KEEP SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST IN THE SOUTH THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST ON MONDAY. EXPECT
DIMINISHING CLOUDS BUT A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST WILL BRING A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE MOUNTAINS. HIGH TEMPS WILL ONCE AGAIN TOP OUT IN THE MID 70S
TO LOWER 80S.

COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SAG SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM...LOCAL VALLEY FOG THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO VFR
CONDITIONS. WDLY SCT SHOWERS MAY BRING CONDITIONS DOWN BRIEFLY
THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD
ON THURSDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE AWAY FROM COASTAL TERMINALS.

LONG TERM...VFR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...A FEW 5 FOOTERS POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN WATERS EARLY
THIS MORNING...OTHERWISE SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT. MARGINAL SCA SEAS MAY RETURN TO THE
OCEAN WATERS ON THU.

LONG TERM...NO PROBLEMS NOTED.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...






000
FXUS61 KCAR 301312
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
912 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY. A
STRONGER DISTURBANCE FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL APPROACH ON
THURSDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
9:00 AM UPDATE...FORECAST WAS UPDATED TO RAISE TEMPS A BIT
DOWNEAST AND REMOVE FOG FROM NORTHERN AREAS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL PASS OVER THE
PINE TREE STATE TODAY. THIS COMBINED WITH LINGERING MOISTURE WILL
ALLOW SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THEY WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING AS THE
DISTURBANCE PASSES TO OUR NORTHEAST AND DAYTIME HEATING IS LOST.
INSTABILITY WILL BE MEAGER, SO THE THREAT OF ANY THUNDER WILL BE
LOW. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 70S. THE ONLY CONCERN
FOR TONIGHT WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG, ESPECIALLY
ANYWHERE THAT GETS RAIN TODAY. LOWS WILL BE AROUND 50 IN THE NORTH
AND THE LOWER TO MID 50S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODELS CONT TO ADVERTISE A FAIRLY STRONG...NEGATIVELY TILTED S/WV
ROTATING ARND A LARGE MID LVL VORTEX OVR CNTRL CAN...SW TO NE INTO
WRN PTNS OF THE FA FROM THE GREAT LKS LATE THU INTO THU EVE. SFC
AMD ML CAPES WILL BE LMTD TO 500-1000 J/KG THU AFTN AND ERLY EVE
WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT STEEP MID LVL LAPSE RATES...MDTLY STRONG
WIND SHEAR AND UPPER DYNAMICS ALF AND FZLS ARND 11.5 KFT SUGGEST
MENTIONING ENHANCED WORDING FOR GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL...WHICH WE DO
WITH LIKELY AND GREATER POPS. BOTH CVRG AND INTENSITY OF TSTMS
SHOULD DECREASE SEWRD FROM MAX CATEGORICAL POPS OVR NW ME WITH
THIS SYSTEM...TO ONLY SLGT CHC POPS OF SHWRS ALG THE DOWNEAST
COAST. BEHIND THIS S/WV...SKIES SHOULD BECOME MCLR AS SFC WINDS
DECOUPLE OVR MOST OF THE FA LATE THU NGT...BRINGING THE POTENTIAL
OF PATCHY LATE NGT/ERLY MORN FOG ON FRI.

FRI LOOKS TO BE MSLY FAIR WITH PTLY CLDY SKIES BY AFTN. WITH SBCAPES
OF LESS THAN 200 J/KG OVR FAR NW PTNS OF THE FA FRI AFTN...ONLY A CHC
OF SHWRS IS MENTIONED HERE...WITH THE REST OF THE FA REMAINING
MSLY DRY. FRI NGT LOOKS TO BE MSLY FAIR ATTM. AFTN HI TEMPS WILL
BE AOA NORMAL BOTH DAYS WITH NEAR SEASONAL OVRNGT LOWS BOTH NGTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
INCREASING MID AND LOW LVL MOISTURE FROM THE SW AS DEEP SWRLY FLOW
ALF CONTS OVR THE REGION WILL RESULT IN AFTN/EVE SCT SHWRS AND TSTMS
FOR MSLY NRN/CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA SAT THRU MON OF THE LONG
RANGE...WITH THE BEST POTENTIAL POSSIBLY BEING MON AFTN AS A MORE
SIG S/WV CROSSES THE REGION. THEN BOTH THE 00Z OPNL GFS AND ECMWF
MODELS INDICATE A FOLLOW-UP S/WV FROM A MORE NRN BR OF THE UPPER
JET BRINGING A COLD FRONT ALG WITH ANOTHER CHC OF AFTN AND EVE
SHWRS/TSTMS TO MOST OF THE REGION. WE TRIED TO PLAY FOR MORE OF
A DIURNAL...AFTN HTG CYCLE OF POPS THIS UPDATE TO INDICATE A BETTER
POTENTIAL OF RAIN FREE CONDITIONS DURING THE LATE NGT THRU MORN
HRS EACH DAY FOR THOSE WANTING TO PLAN OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES. OTHERWISE...
HI AND LOW TEMPS EACH DAY WILL AGAIN BE AT OR JUST ABV AVG FOR THIS
TM OF SEASON.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: OUTSIDE OF LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE IN FOG EARLY THIS
MORNING AND AGAIN LATE TONIGHT, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS MAY RESULT IN
OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS THIS AFTERNOON, BUT THIS IS EXPECTED TO
BE SHORT-LIVED.


SHORT TO LONG TERM: MSLY VFR CONDITIONS XPCTD ACROSS OUR TAF SITES
THRU THIS PTN OF THE FCST...WITH BRIEF PDS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE IN ANY AFTN/EVE TSTM AND HEAVIER SHWRS AND LATE NGT/ERLY
MORN PATCHY FOG.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: 400 AM UPDATE..HAVE ALLOWED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
TO EXPIRE AS SEAS ARE NOW BELOW 5 FEET. NO OTHER CHANGES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...WAVES ARE STICKING RIGHT AROUND 5 FEET
EARLY THIS MORNING, BUT EXPECT THEY WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE
THROUGH SUNRISE. THEREFORE, HAVE ALLOWED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
TO REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR NOW, BUT WILL LIKELY ALLOW IT TO EXPIRE
AT 4 AM. OTHERWISE, QUIET CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON OUR WATERS FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: WINDS AND WV HTS ARE XPCTD TO REMAIN BELOW SCA
CRITERIA THRU THESE PTNS OF THE FCST. WENT WITH ABOUT 75 TO 80
PERCENT OF WW3 WV GUIDANCE FOR THIS UPDATE.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...HASTINGS/MCB
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...HASTINGS/VJN
MARINE...HASTINGS/VJN







000
FXUS61 KGYX 301023 CCA
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
625 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT IN FROM THE WEST
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE EAST
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MAY AFFECT
THE AREA WITH SHOWERS ON SATURDAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN
NEARBY SUNDAY. THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST ON MONDAY. A
SECONDARY FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
630 AM UPDATE...HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST MAINLY FOR MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS IN SKY COVER BASED ON LATEST TRENDS IN SATELLITE DATA.
CLOUDS ARE HOLDING TOUGH...BUT SOME BREAKS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
LATER THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...FORECAST REMAINS LARGELY UNCHANGED.

CYCLONIC FLOW AND COLD TEMPS ALOFT IN TANDEM WITH WEAK SFC
CONVERGENCE WILL RESULT IN VARIABLE CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
TODAY. HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR RAIN APPEARS TO BE OVER CENTRAL MAINE
EASTWARD TO OUR EASTERN ZONES. MAX TEMPS WERE DERIVED MAINLY FROM
A BLEND OF THE MAV AND MET GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
ANY LIGHT SHOWERS DISSIPATE EARLY THIS EVENING AND WILL RESULT IN
A FAIR WX NIGHT ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL PROBABLY LINGER. ON
THURSDAY...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ROTATING AROUND THE LARGER PARENT
UPPER LOW TO OUR NW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. FORCING FOR
ASCENT WORKING IN TANDEM WITH COLD AIR ALOFT /AS LOW AS -17C AT
500MB/ SHOULD SPARK SHOWERS AND WIDELY SCT THUNDERSTORMS. THE
HIGHEST PROB FOR RAIN WILL BE OVER THE INTERIOR WHERE SHOWERS
SHOULD END UP BEING WIDESPREAD. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO TO
INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS...WITH HAIL BEING
THE MAIN THREAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM THE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
RETURN FLOW WILL BRING WARMER AIR BACK INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFFSHORE. EXPECT A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.

HIGH PRESSURE FORECAST TO SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY AS A
WARM FRONT SETS UP SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. SATURDAY LOOKING WARMER AND
MORE HUMID WITH A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS AWAY
FROM THE COAST. WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO WATCH THE ECMWF AS IT HAS
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING JUST TO OUR EAST AND MAY PROVIDE FOR
SHOWERS ALL DAY.

FRONT LIFTS INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY NIGHT AND STALLS ON
SUNDAY. SUNDAY LOOKING MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN
SOUTHERN AND COASTAL SECTIONS. SEVERAL WAVES OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE
FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL
KEEP SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST IN THE SOUTH THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST ON MONDAY. EXPECT
DIMINISHING CLOUDS BUT A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST WILL BRING A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE MOUNTAINS. HIGH TEMPS WILL ONCE AGAIN TOP OUT IN THE MID 70S
TO LOWER 80S.

COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SAG SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM...LOCAL VALLEY FOG THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO VFR
CONDITIONS. WDLY SCT SHOWERS MAY BRING CONDITIONS DOWN BRIEFLY
THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD
ON THURSDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE AWAY FROM COASTAL TERMINALS.

LONG TERM...VFR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...A FEW 5 FOOTERS POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN WATERS EARLY
THIS MORNING...OTHERWISE SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT. MARGINAL SCA SEAS MAY RETURN TO THE
OCEAN WATERS ON THU.

LONG TERM...NO PROBLEMS NOTED.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR/SHORT TERM...MLE









000
FXUS61 KGYX 301023 CCA
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
625 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT IN FROM THE WEST
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE EAST
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MAY AFFECT
THE AREA WITH SHOWERS ON SATURDAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN
NEARBY SUNDAY. THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST ON MONDAY. A
SECONDARY FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
630 AM UPDATE...HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST MAINLY FOR MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS IN SKY COVER BASED ON LATEST TRENDS IN SATELLITE DATA.
CLOUDS ARE HOLDING TOUGH...BUT SOME BREAKS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
LATER THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...FORECAST REMAINS LARGELY UNCHANGED.

CYCLONIC FLOW AND COLD TEMPS ALOFT IN TANDEM WITH WEAK SFC
CONVERGENCE WILL RESULT IN VARIABLE CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
TODAY. HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR RAIN APPEARS TO BE OVER CENTRAL MAINE
EASTWARD TO OUR EASTERN ZONES. MAX TEMPS WERE DERIVED MAINLY FROM
A BLEND OF THE MAV AND MET GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
ANY LIGHT SHOWERS DISSIPATE EARLY THIS EVENING AND WILL RESULT IN
A FAIR WX NIGHT ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL PROBABLY LINGER. ON
THURSDAY...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ROTATING AROUND THE LARGER PARENT
UPPER LOW TO OUR NW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. FORCING FOR
ASCENT WORKING IN TANDEM WITH COLD AIR ALOFT /AS LOW AS -17C AT
500MB/ SHOULD SPARK SHOWERS AND WIDELY SCT THUNDERSTORMS. THE
HIGHEST PROB FOR RAIN WILL BE OVER THE INTERIOR WHERE SHOWERS
SHOULD END UP BEING WIDESPREAD. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO TO
INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS...WITH HAIL BEING
THE MAIN THREAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM THE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
RETURN FLOW WILL BRING WARMER AIR BACK INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFFSHORE. EXPECT A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.

HIGH PRESSURE FORECAST TO SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY AS A
WARM FRONT SETS UP SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. SATURDAY LOOKING WARMER AND
MORE HUMID WITH A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS AWAY
FROM THE COAST. WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO WATCH THE ECMWF AS IT HAS
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING JUST TO OUR EAST AND MAY PROVIDE FOR
SHOWERS ALL DAY.

FRONT LIFTS INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY NIGHT AND STALLS ON
SUNDAY. SUNDAY LOOKING MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN
SOUTHERN AND COASTAL SECTIONS. SEVERAL WAVES OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE
FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL
KEEP SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST IN THE SOUTH THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST ON MONDAY. EXPECT
DIMINISHING CLOUDS BUT A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST WILL BRING A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE MOUNTAINS. HIGH TEMPS WILL ONCE AGAIN TOP OUT IN THE MID 70S
TO LOWER 80S.

COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SAG SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM...LOCAL VALLEY FOG THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO VFR
CONDITIONS. WDLY SCT SHOWERS MAY BRING CONDITIONS DOWN BRIEFLY
THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD
ON THURSDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE AWAY FROM COASTAL TERMINALS.

LONG TERM...VFR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...A FEW 5 FOOTERS POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN WATERS EARLY
THIS MORNING...OTHERWISE SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT. MARGINAL SCA SEAS MAY RETURN TO THE
OCEAN WATERS ON THU.

LONG TERM...NO PROBLEMS NOTED.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR/SHORT TERM...MLE









000
FXUS61 KGYX 301023 CCA
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
625 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT IN FROM THE WEST
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE EAST
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MAY AFFECT
THE AREA WITH SHOWERS ON SATURDAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN
NEARBY SUNDAY. THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST ON MONDAY. A
SECONDARY FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
630 AM UPDATE...HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST MAINLY FOR MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS IN SKY COVER BASED ON LATEST TRENDS IN SATELLITE DATA.
CLOUDS ARE HOLDING TOUGH...BUT SOME BREAKS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
LATER THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...FORECAST REMAINS LARGELY UNCHANGED.

CYCLONIC FLOW AND COLD TEMPS ALOFT IN TANDEM WITH WEAK SFC
CONVERGENCE WILL RESULT IN VARIABLE CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
TODAY. HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR RAIN APPEARS TO BE OVER CENTRAL MAINE
EASTWARD TO OUR EASTERN ZONES. MAX TEMPS WERE DERIVED MAINLY FROM
A BLEND OF THE MAV AND MET GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
ANY LIGHT SHOWERS DISSIPATE EARLY THIS EVENING AND WILL RESULT IN
A FAIR WX NIGHT ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL PROBABLY LINGER. ON
THURSDAY...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ROTATING AROUND THE LARGER PARENT
UPPER LOW TO OUR NW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. FORCING FOR
ASCENT WORKING IN TANDEM WITH COLD AIR ALOFT /AS LOW AS -17C AT
500MB/ SHOULD SPARK SHOWERS AND WIDELY SCT THUNDERSTORMS. THE
HIGHEST PROB FOR RAIN WILL BE OVER THE INTERIOR WHERE SHOWERS
SHOULD END UP BEING WIDESPREAD. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO TO
INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS...WITH HAIL BEING
THE MAIN THREAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM THE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
RETURN FLOW WILL BRING WARMER AIR BACK INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFFSHORE. EXPECT A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.

HIGH PRESSURE FORECAST TO SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY AS A
WARM FRONT SETS UP SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. SATURDAY LOOKING WARMER AND
MORE HUMID WITH A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS AWAY
FROM THE COAST. WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO WATCH THE ECMWF AS IT HAS
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING JUST TO OUR EAST AND MAY PROVIDE FOR
SHOWERS ALL DAY.

FRONT LIFTS INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY NIGHT AND STALLS ON
SUNDAY. SUNDAY LOOKING MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN
SOUTHERN AND COASTAL SECTIONS. SEVERAL WAVES OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE
FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL
KEEP SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST IN THE SOUTH THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST ON MONDAY. EXPECT
DIMINISHING CLOUDS BUT A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST WILL BRING A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE MOUNTAINS. HIGH TEMPS WILL ONCE AGAIN TOP OUT IN THE MID 70S
TO LOWER 80S.

COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SAG SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM...LOCAL VALLEY FOG THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO VFR
CONDITIONS. WDLY SCT SHOWERS MAY BRING CONDITIONS DOWN BRIEFLY
THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD
ON THURSDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE AWAY FROM COASTAL TERMINALS.

LONG TERM...VFR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...A FEW 5 FOOTERS POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN WATERS EARLY
THIS MORNING...OTHERWISE SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT. MARGINAL SCA SEAS MAY RETURN TO THE
OCEAN WATERS ON THU.

LONG TERM...NO PROBLEMS NOTED.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR/SHORT TERM...MLE









000
FXUS61 KGYX 301023 CCA
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
625 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT IN FROM THE WEST
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE EAST
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MAY AFFECT
THE AREA WITH SHOWERS ON SATURDAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN
NEARBY SUNDAY. THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST ON MONDAY. A
SECONDARY FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
630 AM UPDATE...HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST MAINLY FOR MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS IN SKY COVER BASED ON LATEST TRENDS IN SATELLITE DATA.
CLOUDS ARE HOLDING TOUGH...BUT SOME BREAKS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
LATER THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...FORECAST REMAINS LARGELY UNCHANGED.

CYCLONIC FLOW AND COLD TEMPS ALOFT IN TANDEM WITH WEAK SFC
CONVERGENCE WILL RESULT IN VARIABLE CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
TODAY. HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR RAIN APPEARS TO BE OVER CENTRAL MAINE
EASTWARD TO OUR EASTERN ZONES. MAX TEMPS WERE DERIVED MAINLY FROM
A BLEND OF THE MAV AND MET GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
ANY LIGHT SHOWERS DISSIPATE EARLY THIS EVENING AND WILL RESULT IN
A FAIR WX NIGHT ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL PROBABLY LINGER. ON
THURSDAY...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ROTATING AROUND THE LARGER PARENT
UPPER LOW TO OUR NW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. FORCING FOR
ASCENT WORKING IN TANDEM WITH COLD AIR ALOFT /AS LOW AS -17C AT
500MB/ SHOULD SPARK SHOWERS AND WIDELY SCT THUNDERSTORMS. THE
HIGHEST PROB FOR RAIN WILL BE OVER THE INTERIOR WHERE SHOWERS
SHOULD END UP BEING WIDESPREAD. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO TO
INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS...WITH HAIL BEING
THE MAIN THREAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM THE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
RETURN FLOW WILL BRING WARMER AIR BACK INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFFSHORE. EXPECT A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.

HIGH PRESSURE FORECAST TO SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY AS A
WARM FRONT SETS UP SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. SATURDAY LOOKING WARMER AND
MORE HUMID WITH A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS AWAY
FROM THE COAST. WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO WATCH THE ECMWF AS IT HAS
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING JUST TO OUR EAST AND MAY PROVIDE FOR
SHOWERS ALL DAY.

FRONT LIFTS INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY NIGHT AND STALLS ON
SUNDAY. SUNDAY LOOKING MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN
SOUTHERN AND COASTAL SECTIONS. SEVERAL WAVES OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE
FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL
KEEP SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST IN THE SOUTH THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST ON MONDAY. EXPECT
DIMINISHING CLOUDS BUT A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST WILL BRING A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE MOUNTAINS. HIGH TEMPS WILL ONCE AGAIN TOP OUT IN THE MID 70S
TO LOWER 80S.

COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SAG SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM...LOCAL VALLEY FOG THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO VFR
CONDITIONS. WDLY SCT SHOWERS MAY BRING CONDITIONS DOWN BRIEFLY
THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD
ON THURSDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE AWAY FROM COASTAL TERMINALS.

LONG TERM...VFR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...A FEW 5 FOOTERS POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN WATERS EARLY
THIS MORNING...OTHERWISE SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT. MARGINAL SCA SEAS MAY RETURN TO THE
OCEAN WATERS ON THU.

LONG TERM...NO PROBLEMS NOTED.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR/SHORT TERM...MLE









000
FXUS61 KCAR 301000
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
600 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY. A
STRONGER DISTURBANCE FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL APPROACH ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
600 AM UPDATE...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A CLOUD DECK HAS SPREAD
OVER MUCH OF DOWNEAST MAINE. THIS HAS LIMITED THE FORMATION OF
FOG. MEANWHILE, NORTHERN MAINE IS PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY WITH
RIVER VALLEY FOG EVIDENT ON LOCAL WEBCAMS. HAVE UPDATED SKY COVER
AND WEATHER ACCORDINGLY. NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED ATTM.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL PASS OVER THE
PINE TREE STATE TODAY. THIS COMBINED WITH LINGERING MOISTURE WILL
ALLOW SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THEY WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING AS THE
DISTURBANCE PASSES TO OUR NORTHEAST AND DAYTIME HEATING IS LOST.
INSTABILITY WILL BE MEAGER, SO THE THREAT OF ANY THUNDER WILL BE
LOW. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 70S. THE ONLY CONCERN
FOR TONIGHT WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG, ESPECIALLY
ANYWHERE THAT GETS RAIN TODAY. LOWS WILL BE AROUND 50 IN THE NORTH
AND THE LOWER TO MID 50S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODELS CONT TO ADVERTISE A FAIRLY STRONG...NEGATIVELY TILTED S/WV
ROTATING ARND A LARGE MID LVL VORTEX OVR CNTRL CAN...SW TO NE INTO
WRN PTNS OF THE FA FROM THE GREAT LKS LATE THU INTO THU EVE. SFC
AMD ML CAPES WILL BE LMTD TO 500-1000 J/KG THU AFTN AND ERLY EVE
WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT STEEP MID LVL LAPSE RATES...MDTLY STRONG
WIND SHEAR AND UPPER DYNAMICS ALF AND FZLS ARND 11.5 KFT SUGGEST
MENTIONING ENHANCED WORDING FOR GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL...WHICH WE DO
WITH LIKELY AND GREATER POPS. BOTH CVRG AND INTENSITY OF TSTMS
SHOULD DECREASE SEWRD FROM MAX CATEGORICAL POPS OVR NW ME WITH
THIS SYSTEM...TO ONLY SLGT CHC POPS OF SHWRS ALG THE DOWNEAST
COAST. BEHIND THIS S/WV...SKIES SHOULD BECOME MCLR AS SFC WINDS
DECOUPLE OVR MOST OF THE FA LATE THU NGT...BRINGING THE POTENTIAL
OF PATCHY LATE NGT/ERLY MORN FOG ON FRI.

FRI LOOKS TO BE MSLY FAIR WITH PTLY CLDY SKIES BY AFTN. WITH SBCAPES
OF LESS THAN 200 J/KG OVR FAR NW PTNS OF THE FA FRI AFTN...ONLY A CHC
OF SHWRS IS MENTIONED HERE...WITH THE REST OF THE FA REMAINING
MSLY DRY. FRI NGT LOOKS TO BE MSLY FAIR ATTM. AFTN HI TEMPS WILL
BE AOA NORMAL BOTH DAYS WITH NEAR SEASONAL OVRNGT LOWS BOTH NGTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
INCREASING MID AND LOW LVL MOISTURE FROM THE SW AS DEEP SWRLY FLOW
ALF CONTS OVR THE REGION WILL RESULT IN AFTN/EVE SCT SHWRS AND TSTMS
FOR MSLY NRN/CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA SAT THRU MON OF THE LONG
RANGE...WITH THE BEST POTENTIAL POSSIBLY BEING MON AFTN AS A MORE
SIG S/WV CROSSES THE REGION. THEN BOTH THE 00Z OPNL GFS AND ECMWF
MODELS INDICATE A FOLLOW-UP S/WV FROM A MORE NRN BR OF THE UPPER
JET BRINGING A COLD FRONT ALG WITH ANOTHER CHC OF AFTN AND EVE
SHWRS/TSTMS TO MOST OF THE REGION. WE TRIED TO PLAY FOR MORE OF
A DIURNAL...AFTN HTG CYCLE OF POPS THIS UPDATE TO INDICATE A BETTER
POTENTIAL OF RAIN FREE CONDITIONS DURING THE LATE NGT THRU MORN
HRS EACH DAY FOR THOSE WANTING TO PLAN OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES. OTHERWISE...
HI AND LOW TEMPS EACH DAY WILL AGAIN BE AT OR JUST ABV AVG FOR THIS
TM OF SEASON.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: OUTSIDE OF LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE IN FOG EARLY THIS
MORNING AND AGAIN LATE TONIGHT, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS MAY RESULT IN
OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS THIS AFTERNOON, BUT THIS IS EXPECTED TO
BE SHORT-LIVED.


SHORT TO LONG TERM: MSLY VFR CONDITIONS XPCTD ACROSS OUR TAF SITES
THRU THIS PTN OF THE FCST...WITH BRIEF PDS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE IN ANY AFTN/EVE TSTM AND HEAVIER SHWRS AND LATE NGT/ERLY
MORN PATCHY FOG.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: 400 AM UPDATE..HAVE ALLOWED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
TO EXPIRE AS SEAS ARE NOW BELOW 5 FEET. NO OTHER CHANGES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...WAVES ARE STICKING RIGHT AROUND 5 FEET
EARLY THIS MORNING, BUT EXPECT THEY WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE
THROUGH SUNRISE. THEREFORE, HAVE ALLOWED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
TO REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR NOW, BUT WILL LIKELY ALLOW IT TO EXPIRE
AT 4 AM. OTHERWISE, QUIET CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON OUR WATERS FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: WINDS AND WV HTS ARE XPCTD TO REMAIN BELOW SCA
CRITERIA THRU THESE PTNS OF THE FCST. WENT WITH ABOUT 75 TO 80
PERCENT OF WW3 WV GUIDANCE FOR THIS UPDATE.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...HASTINGS
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...HASTINGS/VJN
MARINE...HASTINGS/VJN







000
FXUS61 KCAR 301000
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
600 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY. A
STRONGER DISTURBANCE FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL APPROACH ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
600 AM UPDATE...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A CLOUD DECK HAS SPREAD
OVER MUCH OF DOWNEAST MAINE. THIS HAS LIMITED THE FORMATION OF
FOG. MEANWHILE, NORTHERN MAINE IS PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY WITH
RIVER VALLEY FOG EVIDENT ON LOCAL WEBCAMS. HAVE UPDATED SKY COVER
AND WEATHER ACCORDINGLY. NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED ATTM.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL PASS OVER THE
PINE TREE STATE TODAY. THIS COMBINED WITH LINGERING MOISTURE WILL
ALLOW SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THEY WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING AS THE
DISTURBANCE PASSES TO OUR NORTHEAST AND DAYTIME HEATING IS LOST.
INSTABILITY WILL BE MEAGER, SO THE THREAT OF ANY THUNDER WILL BE
LOW. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 70S. THE ONLY CONCERN
FOR TONIGHT WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG, ESPECIALLY
ANYWHERE THAT GETS RAIN TODAY. LOWS WILL BE AROUND 50 IN THE NORTH
AND THE LOWER TO MID 50S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODELS CONT TO ADVERTISE A FAIRLY STRONG...NEGATIVELY TILTED S/WV
ROTATING ARND A LARGE MID LVL VORTEX OVR CNTRL CAN...SW TO NE INTO
WRN PTNS OF THE FA FROM THE GREAT LKS LATE THU INTO THU EVE. SFC
AMD ML CAPES WILL BE LMTD TO 500-1000 J/KG THU AFTN AND ERLY EVE
WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT STEEP MID LVL LAPSE RATES...MDTLY STRONG
WIND SHEAR AND UPPER DYNAMICS ALF AND FZLS ARND 11.5 KFT SUGGEST
MENTIONING ENHANCED WORDING FOR GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL...WHICH WE DO
WITH LIKELY AND GREATER POPS. BOTH CVRG AND INTENSITY OF TSTMS
SHOULD DECREASE SEWRD FROM MAX CATEGORICAL POPS OVR NW ME WITH
THIS SYSTEM...TO ONLY SLGT CHC POPS OF SHWRS ALG THE DOWNEAST
COAST. BEHIND THIS S/WV...SKIES SHOULD BECOME MCLR AS SFC WINDS
DECOUPLE OVR MOST OF THE FA LATE THU NGT...BRINGING THE POTENTIAL
OF PATCHY LATE NGT/ERLY MORN FOG ON FRI.

FRI LOOKS TO BE MSLY FAIR WITH PTLY CLDY SKIES BY AFTN. WITH SBCAPES
OF LESS THAN 200 J/KG OVR FAR NW PTNS OF THE FA FRI AFTN...ONLY A CHC
OF SHWRS IS MENTIONED HERE...WITH THE REST OF THE FA REMAINING
MSLY DRY. FRI NGT LOOKS TO BE MSLY FAIR ATTM. AFTN HI TEMPS WILL
BE AOA NORMAL BOTH DAYS WITH NEAR SEASONAL OVRNGT LOWS BOTH NGTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
INCREASING MID AND LOW LVL MOISTURE FROM THE SW AS DEEP SWRLY FLOW
ALF CONTS OVR THE REGION WILL RESULT IN AFTN/EVE SCT SHWRS AND TSTMS
FOR MSLY NRN/CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA SAT THRU MON OF THE LONG
RANGE...WITH THE BEST POTENTIAL POSSIBLY BEING MON AFTN AS A MORE
SIG S/WV CROSSES THE REGION. THEN BOTH THE 00Z OPNL GFS AND ECMWF
MODELS INDICATE A FOLLOW-UP S/WV FROM A MORE NRN BR OF THE UPPER
JET BRINGING A COLD FRONT ALG WITH ANOTHER CHC OF AFTN AND EVE
SHWRS/TSTMS TO MOST OF THE REGION. WE TRIED TO PLAY FOR MORE OF
A DIURNAL...AFTN HTG CYCLE OF POPS THIS UPDATE TO INDICATE A BETTER
POTENTIAL OF RAIN FREE CONDITIONS DURING THE LATE NGT THRU MORN
HRS EACH DAY FOR THOSE WANTING TO PLAN OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES. OTHERWISE...
HI AND LOW TEMPS EACH DAY WILL AGAIN BE AT OR JUST ABV AVG FOR THIS
TM OF SEASON.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: OUTSIDE OF LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE IN FOG EARLY THIS
MORNING AND AGAIN LATE TONIGHT, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS MAY RESULT IN
OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS THIS AFTERNOON, BUT THIS IS EXPECTED TO
BE SHORT-LIVED.


SHORT TO LONG TERM: MSLY VFR CONDITIONS XPCTD ACROSS OUR TAF SITES
THRU THIS PTN OF THE FCST...WITH BRIEF PDS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE IN ANY AFTN/EVE TSTM AND HEAVIER SHWRS AND LATE NGT/ERLY
MORN PATCHY FOG.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: 400 AM UPDATE..HAVE ALLOWED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
TO EXPIRE AS SEAS ARE NOW BELOW 5 FEET. NO OTHER CHANGES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...WAVES ARE STICKING RIGHT AROUND 5 FEET
EARLY THIS MORNING, BUT EXPECT THEY WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE
THROUGH SUNRISE. THEREFORE, HAVE ALLOWED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
TO REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR NOW, BUT WILL LIKELY ALLOW IT TO EXPIRE
AT 4 AM. OTHERWISE, QUIET CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON OUR WATERS FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: WINDS AND WV HTS ARE XPCTD TO REMAIN BELOW SCA
CRITERIA THRU THESE PTNS OF THE FCST. WENT WITH ABOUT 75 TO 80
PERCENT OF WW3 WV GUIDANCE FOR THIS UPDATE.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...HASTINGS
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...HASTINGS/VJN
MARINE...HASTINGS/VJN








000
FXUS61 KCAR 300804
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
404 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY. A
STRONGER DISTURBANCE FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL APPROACH ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL PASS OVER THE PINE TREE STATE TODAY. THIS
COMBINED WITH LINGERING MOISTURE WILL ALLOW SCATTERED SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THEY WILL
DISSIPATE THIS EVENING AS THE DISTURBANCE PASSES TO OUR NORTHEAST AND
DAYTIME HEATING IS LOST. INSTABILITY WILL BE MEAGER, SO THE THREAT
OF ANY THUNDER WILL BE LOW. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID
70S. THE ONLY CONCERN FOR TONIGHT WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY
FOG, ESPECIALLY ANYWHERE THAT GETS RAIN TODAY. LOWS WILL BE AROUND
50 IN THE NORTH AND THE LOWER TO MID 50S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODELS CONT TO ADVERTISE A FAIRLY STRONG...NEGATIVELY TILTED S/WV
ROTATING ARND A LARGE MID LVL VORTEX OVR CNTRL CAN...SW TO NE INTO
WRN PTNS OF THE FA FROM THE GREAT LKS LATE THU INTO THU EVE. SFC
AMD ML CAPES WILL BE LMTD TO 500-1000 J/KG THU AFTN AND ERLY EVE
WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT STEEP MID LVL LAPSE RATES...MDTLY STRONG
WIND SHEAR AND UPPER DYNAMICS ALF AND FZLS ARND 11.5 KFT SUGGEST
MENTIONING ENHANCED WORDING FOR GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL...WHICH WE DO
WITH LIKELY AND GREATER POPS. BOTH CVRG AND INTENSITY OF TSTMS
SHOULD DECREASE SEWRD FROM MAX CATEGORICAL POPS OVR NW ME WITH
THIS SYSTEM...TO ONLY SLGT CHC POPS OF SHWRS ALG THE DOWNEAST
COAST. BEHIND THIS S/WV...SKIES SHOULD BECOME MCLR AS SFC WINDS
DECOUPLE OVR MOST OF THE FA LATE THU NGT...BRINGING THE POTENTIAL
OF PATCHY LATE NGT/ERLY MORN FOG ON FRI.

FRI LOOKS TO BE MSLY FAIR WITH PTLY CLDY SKIES BY AFTN. WITH SBCAPES
OF LESS THAN 200 J/KG OVR FAR NW PTNS OF THE FA FRI AFTN...ONLY A CHC
OF SHWRS IS MENTIONED HERE...WITH THE REST OF THE FA REMAINING
MSLY DRY. FRI NGT LOOKS TO BE MSLY FAIR ATTM. AFTN HI TEMPS WILL
BE AOA NORMAL BOTH DAYS WITH NEAR SEASONAL OVRNGT LOWS BOTH NGTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
INCREASING MID AND LOW LVL MOISTURE FROM THE SW AS DEEP SWRLY FLOW
ALF CONTS OVR THE REGION WILL RESULT IN AFTN/EVE SCT SHWRS AND TSTMS
FOR MSLY NRN/CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA SAT THRU MON OF THE LONG
RANGE...WITH THE BEST POTENTIAL POSSIBLY BEING MON AFTN AS A MORE
SIG S/WV CROSSES THE REGION. THEN BOTH THE 00Z OPNL GFS AND ECMWF
MODELS INDICATE A FOLLOW-UP S/WV FROM A MORE NRN BR OF THE UPPER
JET BRINGING A COLD FRONT ALG WITH ANOTHER CHC OF AFTN AND EVE
SHWRS/TSTMS TO MOST OF THE REGION. WE TRIED TO PLAY FOR MORE OF
A DIURNAL...AFTN HTG CYCLE OF POPS THIS UPDATE TO INDICATE A BETTER
POTENTIAL OF RAIN FREE CONDITIONS DURING THE LATE NGT THRU MORN
HRS EACH DAY FOR THOSE WANTING TO PLAN OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES. OTHERWISE...
HI AND LOW TEMPS EACH DAY WILL AGAIN BE AT OR JUST ABV AVG FOR THIS
TM OF SEASON.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: OUTSIDE OF LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE IN FOG EARLY THIS
MORNING AND AGAIN LATE TONIGHT, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS MAY RESULT IN
OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS THIS AFTERNOON, BUT THIS IS EXPECTED TO
BE SHORT-LIVED.


SHORT TO LONG TERM: MSLY VFR CONDITIONS XPCTD ACROSS OUR TAF SITES
THRU THIS PTN OF THE FCST...WITH BRIEF PDS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE IN ANY AFTN/EVE TSTM AND HEAVIER SHWRS AND LATE NGT/ERLY
MORN PATCHY FOG.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: 400 AM UPDATE..HAVE ALLOWED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
TO EXPIRE AS SEAS ARE NOW BELOW 5 FEET. NO OTHER CHANGES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...WAVES ARE STICKING RIGHT AROUND 5 FEET
EARLY THIS MORNING, BUT EXPECT THEY WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE
THROUGH SUNRISE. THEREFORE, HAVE ALLOWED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
TO REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR NOW, BUT WILL LIKELY ALLOW IT TO EXPIRE
AT 4 AM. OTHERWISE, QUIET CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON OUR WATERS FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: WINDS AND WV HTS ARE XPCTD TO REMAIN BELOW SCA
CRITERIA THRU THESE PTNS OF THE FCST. WENT WITH ABOUT 75 TO 80
PERCENT OF WW3 WV GUIDANCE FOR THIS UPDATE.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...HASTINGS
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...HASTINGS/VJN
MARINE...HASTINGS/VJN








000
FXUS61 KCAR 300804
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
404 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY. A
STRONGER DISTURBANCE FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL APPROACH ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL PASS OVER THE PINE TREE STATE TODAY. THIS
COMBINED WITH LINGERING MOISTURE WILL ALLOW SCATTERED SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THEY WILL
DISSIPATE THIS EVENING AS THE DISTURBANCE PASSES TO OUR NORTHEAST AND
DAYTIME HEATING IS LOST. INSTABILITY WILL BE MEAGER, SO THE THREAT
OF ANY THUNDER WILL BE LOW. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID
70S. THE ONLY CONCERN FOR TONIGHT WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY
FOG, ESPECIALLY ANYWHERE THAT GETS RAIN TODAY. LOWS WILL BE AROUND
50 IN THE NORTH AND THE LOWER TO MID 50S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODELS CONT TO ADVERTISE A FAIRLY STRONG...NEGATIVELY TILTED S/WV
ROTATING ARND A LARGE MID LVL VORTEX OVR CNTRL CAN...SW TO NE INTO
WRN PTNS OF THE FA FROM THE GREAT LKS LATE THU INTO THU EVE. SFC
AMD ML CAPES WILL BE LMTD TO 500-1000 J/KG THU AFTN AND ERLY EVE
WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT STEEP MID LVL LAPSE RATES...MDTLY STRONG
WIND SHEAR AND UPPER DYNAMICS ALF AND FZLS ARND 11.5 KFT SUGGEST
MENTIONING ENHANCED WORDING FOR GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL...WHICH WE DO
WITH LIKELY AND GREATER POPS. BOTH CVRG AND INTENSITY OF TSTMS
SHOULD DECREASE SEWRD FROM MAX CATEGORICAL POPS OVR NW ME WITH
THIS SYSTEM...TO ONLY SLGT CHC POPS OF SHWRS ALG THE DOWNEAST
COAST. BEHIND THIS S/WV...SKIES SHOULD BECOME MCLR AS SFC WINDS
DECOUPLE OVR MOST OF THE FA LATE THU NGT...BRINGING THE POTENTIAL
OF PATCHY LATE NGT/ERLY MORN FOG ON FRI.

FRI LOOKS TO BE MSLY FAIR WITH PTLY CLDY SKIES BY AFTN. WITH SBCAPES
OF LESS THAN 200 J/KG OVR FAR NW PTNS OF THE FA FRI AFTN...ONLY A CHC
OF SHWRS IS MENTIONED HERE...WITH THE REST OF THE FA REMAINING
MSLY DRY. FRI NGT LOOKS TO BE MSLY FAIR ATTM. AFTN HI TEMPS WILL
BE AOA NORMAL BOTH DAYS WITH NEAR SEASONAL OVRNGT LOWS BOTH NGTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
INCREASING MID AND LOW LVL MOISTURE FROM THE SW AS DEEP SWRLY FLOW
ALF CONTS OVR THE REGION WILL RESULT IN AFTN/EVE SCT SHWRS AND TSTMS
FOR MSLY NRN/CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA SAT THRU MON OF THE LONG
RANGE...WITH THE BEST POTENTIAL POSSIBLY BEING MON AFTN AS A MORE
SIG S/WV CROSSES THE REGION. THEN BOTH THE 00Z OPNL GFS AND ECMWF
MODELS INDICATE A FOLLOW-UP S/WV FROM A MORE NRN BR OF THE UPPER
JET BRINGING A COLD FRONT ALG WITH ANOTHER CHC OF AFTN AND EVE
SHWRS/TSTMS TO MOST OF THE REGION. WE TRIED TO PLAY FOR MORE OF
A DIURNAL...AFTN HTG CYCLE OF POPS THIS UPDATE TO INDICATE A BETTER
POTENTIAL OF RAIN FREE CONDITIONS DURING THE LATE NGT THRU MORN
HRS EACH DAY FOR THOSE WANTING TO PLAN OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES. OTHERWISE...
HI AND LOW TEMPS EACH DAY WILL AGAIN BE AT OR JUST ABV AVG FOR THIS
TM OF SEASON.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: OUTSIDE OF LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE IN FOG EARLY THIS
MORNING AND AGAIN LATE TONIGHT, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS MAY RESULT IN
OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS THIS AFTERNOON, BUT THIS IS EXPECTED TO
BE SHORT-LIVED.


SHORT TO LONG TERM: MSLY VFR CONDITIONS XPCTD ACROSS OUR TAF SITES
THRU THIS PTN OF THE FCST...WITH BRIEF PDS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE IN ANY AFTN/EVE TSTM AND HEAVIER SHWRS AND LATE NGT/ERLY
MORN PATCHY FOG.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: 400 AM UPDATE..HAVE ALLOWED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
TO EXPIRE AS SEAS ARE NOW BELOW 5 FEET. NO OTHER CHANGES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...WAVES ARE STICKING RIGHT AROUND 5 FEET
EARLY THIS MORNING, BUT EXPECT THEY WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE
THROUGH SUNRISE. THEREFORE, HAVE ALLOWED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
TO REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR NOW, BUT WILL LIKELY ALLOW IT TO EXPIRE
AT 4 AM. OTHERWISE, QUIET CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON OUR WATERS FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: WINDS AND WV HTS ARE XPCTD TO REMAIN BELOW SCA
CRITERIA THRU THESE PTNS OF THE FCST. WENT WITH ABOUT 75 TO 80
PERCENT OF WW3 WV GUIDANCE FOR THIS UPDATE.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...HASTINGS
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...HASTINGS/VJN
MARINE...HASTINGS/VJN







000
FXUS61 KCAR 300723
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
323 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY. A
STRONGER DISTURBANCE FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL APPROACH ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL PASS OVER THE PINE TREE STATE TODAY. THIS
COMBINED WITH LINGERING MOISTURE WILL ALLOW SCATTERED SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THEY WILL
DISSIPATE THIS EVENING AS THE DISTURBANCE PASSES TO OUR NORTHEAST AND
DAYTIME HEATING IS LOST. INSTABILITY WILL BE MEAGER, SO THE THREAT
OF ANY THUNDER WILL BE LOW. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID
70S. THE ONLY CONCERN FOR TONIGHT WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY
FOG, ESPECIALLY ANYWHERE THAT GETS RAIN TODAY. LOWS WILL BE AROUND
50 IN THE NORTH AND THE LOWER TO MID 50S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS CONT TO ADVERTISE A FAIRLY STRONG...NEGATIVELY TILTED S/WV
ROTATING ARND A LARGE MID LVL VORTEX OVR CNTRL CAN...SW TO NE INTO
WRN PTNS OF THE FA FROM THE GREAT LKS LATE THU INTO THU EVE. SFC
AMD ML CAPES WILL BE LMTD TO 500-1000 J/KG THU AFTN AND ERLY EVE
WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT STEEP MID LVL LAPSE RATES...MDTLY STRONG
WIND SHEAR AND UPPER DYNAMICS ALF AND FZLS ARND 11.5 KFT SUGGEST
MENTIONING ENHANCED WORDING FOR GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL...WHICH WE DO
WITH LIKELY AND GREATER POPS. BOTH CVRG AND INTENSITY OF TSTMS
SHOULD DECREASE SEWRD FROM MAX CATEGORICAL POPS OVR NW ME WITH
THIS SYSTEM...TO ONLY SLGT CHC POPS OF SHWRS ALG THE DOWNEAST
COAST. BEHIND THIS S/WV...SKIES SHOULD BECOME MCLR AS SFC WINDS
DECOUPLE OVR MOST OF THE FA LATE THU NGT...BRINGING THE POTENTIAL
OF PATCHY LATE NGT/ERLY MORN FOG ON FRI.

FRI LOOKS TO BE MSLY FAIR WITH PTLY CLDY SKIES BY AFTN. WITH SBCAPES
OF LESS THAN 200 J/KG OVR FAR NW PTNS OF THE FA FRI AFTN...ONLY A CHC
OF SHWRS IS MENTIONED HERE...WITH THE REST OF THE FA REMAINING
MSLY DRY. FRI NGT LOOKS TO BE MSLY FAIR ATTM. AFTN HI TEMPS WILL
BE AOA NORMAL BOTH DAYS WITH NEAR SEASONAL OVRNGT LOWS BOTH NGTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
INCREASING MID AND LOW LVL MOISTURE FROM THE SW AS DEEP SWRLY FLOW
ALF CONTS OVR THE REGION WILL RESULT IN AFTN/EVE SCT SHWRS AND TSTMS
FOR MSLY NRN/CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA SAT THRU MON OF THE LONG
RANGE...WITH THE BEST POTENTIAL POSSIBLY BEING MON AFTN AS A MORE
SIG S/WV CROSSES THE REGION. THEN BOTH THE 00Z OPNL GFS AND ECMWF
MODELS INDICATE A FOLLOW-UP S/WV FROM A MORE NRN BR OF THE UPPER
JET BRINGING A COLD FRONT ALG WITH ANOTHER CHC OF AFTN AND EVE
SHWRS/TSTMS TO MOST OF THE REGION. WE TRIED TO PLAY FOR MORE OF
A DIURNAL...AFTN HTG CYCLE OF POPS THIS UPDATE TO INDICATE A BETTER
POTENTIAL OF RAIN FREE CONDITIONS DURING THE LATE NGT THRU MORN
HRS EACH DAY FOR THOSE WANTING TO PLAN OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES. OTHERWISE...
HI AND LOW TEMPS EACH DAY WILL AGAIN BE AT OR JUST ABV AVG FOR THIS
TM OF SEASON.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: OUTSIDE OF LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE IN FOG EARLY THIS
MORNING AND AGAIN LATE TONIGHT, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS MAY RESULT IN
OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS THIS AFTERNOON, BUT THIS IS EXPECTED TO
BE SHORT-LIVED.


SHORT TO LONG TERM: MSLY VFR CONDITIONS XPCTD ACROSS OUR TAF SITES
THRU THIS PTN OF THE FCST...WITH BRIEF PDS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE IN ANY AFTN/EVE TSTM AND HEAVIER SHWRS AND LATE NGT/ERLY
MORN PATCHY FOG.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WAVES ARE STICKING RIGHT AROUND 5 FEET EARLY THIS
MORNING, BUT EXPECT THEY WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE THROUGH SUNRISE.
THEREFORE, HAVE ALLOWED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO REMAIN IN
EFFECT FOR NOW, BUT WILL LIKELY ALLOW IT TO EXPIRE AT 4 AM.
OTHERWISE, QUIET CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON OUR WATERS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: WINDS AND WV HTS ARE XPCTD TO REMAIN BELOW SCA
CRITERIA THRU THESE PTNS OF THE FCST. WENT WITH ABOUT 75 TO 80
PERCENT OF WW3 WV GUIDANCE FOR THIS UPDATE.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 AM EDT EARLY
     THIS MORNING FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...HASTINGS
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...HASTINGS/VJN
MARINE...HASTINGS/VJN








000
FXUS61 KCAR 300723
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
323 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY. A
STRONGER DISTURBANCE FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL APPROACH ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL PASS OVER THE PINE TREE STATE TODAY. THIS
COMBINED WITH LINGERING MOISTURE WILL ALLOW SCATTERED SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THEY WILL
DISSIPATE THIS EVENING AS THE DISTURBANCE PASSES TO OUR NORTHEAST AND
DAYTIME HEATING IS LOST. INSTABILITY WILL BE MEAGER, SO THE THREAT
OF ANY THUNDER WILL BE LOW. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID
70S. THE ONLY CONCERN FOR TONIGHT WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY
FOG, ESPECIALLY ANYWHERE THAT GETS RAIN TODAY. LOWS WILL BE AROUND
50 IN THE NORTH AND THE LOWER TO MID 50S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS CONT TO ADVERTISE A FAIRLY STRONG...NEGATIVELY TILTED S/WV
ROTATING ARND A LARGE MID LVL VORTEX OVR CNTRL CAN...SW TO NE INTO
WRN PTNS OF THE FA FROM THE GREAT LKS LATE THU INTO THU EVE. SFC
AMD ML CAPES WILL BE LMTD TO 500-1000 J/KG THU AFTN AND ERLY EVE
WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT STEEP MID LVL LAPSE RATES...MDTLY STRONG
WIND SHEAR AND UPPER DYNAMICS ALF AND FZLS ARND 11.5 KFT SUGGEST
MENTIONING ENHANCED WORDING FOR GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL...WHICH WE DO
WITH LIKELY AND GREATER POPS. BOTH CVRG AND INTENSITY OF TSTMS
SHOULD DECREASE SEWRD FROM MAX CATEGORICAL POPS OVR NW ME WITH
THIS SYSTEM...TO ONLY SLGT CHC POPS OF SHWRS ALG THE DOWNEAST
COAST. BEHIND THIS S/WV...SKIES SHOULD BECOME MCLR AS SFC WINDS
DECOUPLE OVR MOST OF THE FA LATE THU NGT...BRINGING THE POTENTIAL
OF PATCHY LATE NGT/ERLY MORN FOG ON FRI.

FRI LOOKS TO BE MSLY FAIR WITH PTLY CLDY SKIES BY AFTN. WITH SBCAPES
OF LESS THAN 200 J/KG OVR FAR NW PTNS OF THE FA FRI AFTN...ONLY A CHC
OF SHWRS IS MENTIONED HERE...WITH THE REST OF THE FA REMAINING
MSLY DRY. FRI NGT LOOKS TO BE MSLY FAIR ATTM. AFTN HI TEMPS WILL
BE AOA NORMAL BOTH DAYS WITH NEAR SEASONAL OVRNGT LOWS BOTH NGTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
INCREASING MID AND LOW LVL MOISTURE FROM THE SW AS DEEP SWRLY FLOW
ALF CONTS OVR THE REGION WILL RESULT IN AFTN/EVE SCT SHWRS AND TSTMS
FOR MSLY NRN/CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA SAT THRU MON OF THE LONG
RANGE...WITH THE BEST POTENTIAL POSSIBLY BEING MON AFTN AS A MORE
SIG S/WV CROSSES THE REGION. THEN BOTH THE 00Z OPNL GFS AND ECMWF
MODELS INDICATE A FOLLOW-UP S/WV FROM A MORE NRN BR OF THE UPPER
JET BRINGING A COLD FRONT ALG WITH ANOTHER CHC OF AFTN AND EVE
SHWRS/TSTMS TO MOST OF THE REGION. WE TRIED TO PLAY FOR MORE OF
A DIURNAL...AFTN HTG CYCLE OF POPS THIS UPDATE TO INDICATE A BETTER
POTENTIAL OF RAIN FREE CONDITIONS DURING THE LATE NGT THRU MORN
HRS EACH DAY FOR THOSE WANTING TO PLAN OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES. OTHERWISE...
HI AND LOW TEMPS EACH DAY WILL AGAIN BE AT OR JUST ABV AVG FOR THIS
TM OF SEASON.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: OUTSIDE OF LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE IN FOG EARLY THIS
MORNING AND AGAIN LATE TONIGHT, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS MAY RESULT IN
OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS THIS AFTERNOON, BUT THIS IS EXPECTED TO
BE SHORT-LIVED.


SHORT TO LONG TERM: MSLY VFR CONDITIONS XPCTD ACROSS OUR TAF SITES
THRU THIS PTN OF THE FCST...WITH BRIEF PDS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE IN ANY AFTN/EVE TSTM AND HEAVIER SHWRS AND LATE NGT/ERLY
MORN PATCHY FOG.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WAVES ARE STICKING RIGHT AROUND 5 FEET EARLY THIS
MORNING, BUT EXPECT THEY WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE THROUGH SUNRISE.
THEREFORE, HAVE ALLOWED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO REMAIN IN
EFFECT FOR NOW, BUT WILL LIKELY ALLOW IT TO EXPIRE AT 4 AM.
OTHERWISE, QUIET CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON OUR WATERS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: WINDS AND WV HTS ARE XPCTD TO REMAIN BELOW SCA
CRITERIA THRU THESE PTNS OF THE FCST. WENT WITH ABOUT 75 TO 80
PERCENT OF WW3 WV GUIDANCE FOR THIS UPDATE.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 AM EDT EARLY
     THIS MORNING FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...HASTINGS
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...HASTINGS/VJN
MARINE...HASTINGS/VJN









000
FXUS61 KGYX 300722 CCA
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
322 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT IN FROM THE WEST
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE EAST
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MAY AFFECT
THE AREA WITH SHOWERS ON SATURDAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN
NEARBY SUNDAY. THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST ON MONDAY. A
SECONDARY FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
CYCLONIC FLOW AND COLD TEMPS ALOFT IN TANDEM WITH WEAK SFC
CONVERGENCE WILL RESULT IN VARIABLE CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
TODAY. HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR RAIN APPEARS TO BE OVER CENTRAL MAINE
EASTWARD TO OUR EASTERN ZONES. MAX TEMPS WERE DERIVED MAINLY FROM
A BLEND OF THE MAV AND MET GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
ANY LIGHT SHOWERS DISSIPATE EARLY THIS EVENING AND WILL RESULT IN
A FAIR WX NIGHT ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL PROBABLY LINGER. ON
THURSDAY...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ROTATING AROUND THE LARGER PARENT
UPPER LOW TO OUR NW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. FORCING FOR
ASCENT WORKING IN TANDEM WITH COLD AIR ALOFT /AS LOW AS -17C AT
500MB/ SHOULD SPARK SHOWERS AND WIDELY SCT THUNDERSTORMS. THE
HIGHEST PROB FOR RAIN WILL BE OVER THE INTERIOR WHERE SHOWERS
SHOULD END UP BEING WIDESPREAD. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO TO
INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS...WITH HAIL BEING
THE MAIN THREAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM THE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
RETURN FLOW WILL BRING WARMER AIR BACK INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFFSHORE. EXPECT A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.

HIGH PRESSURE FORECAST TO SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY AS A
WARM FRONT SETS UP SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. SATURDAY LOOKING WARMER AND
MORE HUMID WITH A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS AWAY
FROM THE COAST. WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO WATCH THE ECMWF AS IT HAS
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING JUST TO OUR EAST AND MAY PROVIDE FOR
SHOWERS ALL DAY.

FRONT LIFTS INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY NIGHT AND STALLS ON
SUNDAY. SUNDAY LOOKING MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN
SOUTHERN AND COASTAL SECTIONS. SEVERAL WAVES OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE
FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL
KEEP SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST IN THE SOUTH THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST ON MONDAY. EXPECT
DIMINISHING CLOUDS BUT A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST WILL BRING A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE MOUNTAINS. HIGH TEMPS WILL ONCE AGAIN TOP OUT IN THE MID 70S
TO LOWER 80S.

COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SAG SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM...LOCAL VALLEY FOG THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO VFR
CONDITIONS. WDLY SCT SHOWERS MAY BRING CONDITIONS DOWN BRIEFLY
THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD
ON THURSDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE AWAY FROM COASTAL TERMINALS.

LONG TERM...VFR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...A FEW 5 FOOTERS POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN WATERS EARLY
THIS MORNING...OTHERWISE SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT. MARGINAL SCA SEAS MAY RETURN TO THE
OCEAN WATERS ON THU.

LONG TERM...NO PROBLEMS NOTED.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR/SHORT TERM...MLE






000
FXUS61 KGYX 300722 CCA
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
322 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT IN FROM THE WEST
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE EAST
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MAY AFFECT
THE AREA WITH SHOWERS ON SATURDAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN
NEARBY SUNDAY. THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST ON MONDAY. A
SECONDARY FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
CYCLONIC FLOW AND COLD TEMPS ALOFT IN TANDEM WITH WEAK SFC
CONVERGENCE WILL RESULT IN VARIABLE CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
TODAY. HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR RAIN APPEARS TO BE OVER CENTRAL MAINE
EASTWARD TO OUR EASTERN ZONES. MAX TEMPS WERE DERIVED MAINLY FROM
A BLEND OF THE MAV AND MET GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
ANY LIGHT SHOWERS DISSIPATE EARLY THIS EVENING AND WILL RESULT IN
A FAIR WX NIGHT ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL PROBABLY LINGER. ON
THURSDAY...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ROTATING AROUND THE LARGER PARENT
UPPER LOW TO OUR NW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. FORCING FOR
ASCENT WORKING IN TANDEM WITH COLD AIR ALOFT /AS LOW AS -17C AT
500MB/ SHOULD SPARK SHOWERS AND WIDELY SCT THUNDERSTORMS. THE
HIGHEST PROB FOR RAIN WILL BE OVER THE INTERIOR WHERE SHOWERS
SHOULD END UP BEING WIDESPREAD. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO TO
INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS...WITH HAIL BEING
THE MAIN THREAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM THE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
RETURN FLOW WILL BRING WARMER AIR BACK INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFFSHORE. EXPECT A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.

HIGH PRESSURE FORECAST TO SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY AS A
WARM FRONT SETS UP SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. SATURDAY LOOKING WARMER AND
MORE HUMID WITH A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS AWAY
FROM THE COAST. WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO WATCH THE ECMWF AS IT HAS
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING JUST TO OUR EAST AND MAY PROVIDE FOR
SHOWERS ALL DAY.

FRONT LIFTS INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY NIGHT AND STALLS ON
SUNDAY. SUNDAY LOOKING MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN
SOUTHERN AND COASTAL SECTIONS. SEVERAL WAVES OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE
FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL
KEEP SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST IN THE SOUTH THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST ON MONDAY. EXPECT
DIMINISHING CLOUDS BUT A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST WILL BRING A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE MOUNTAINS. HIGH TEMPS WILL ONCE AGAIN TOP OUT IN THE MID 70S
TO LOWER 80S.

COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SAG SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM...LOCAL VALLEY FOG THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO VFR
CONDITIONS. WDLY SCT SHOWERS MAY BRING CONDITIONS DOWN BRIEFLY
THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD
ON THURSDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE AWAY FROM COASTAL TERMINALS.

LONG TERM...VFR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...A FEW 5 FOOTERS POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN WATERS EARLY
THIS MORNING...OTHERWISE SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT. MARGINAL SCA SEAS MAY RETURN TO THE
OCEAN WATERS ON THU.

LONG TERM...NO PROBLEMS NOTED.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR/SHORT TERM...MLE







000
FXUS61 KGYX 300721
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
321 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT IN FROM THE WEST
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE EAST
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MAY AFFECT
THE AREA WITH SHOWERS ON SATURDAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN
NEARBY SUNDAY. THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST ON MONDAY. A
SECONDARY FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
CYCLONIC FLOW AND COLD TEMPS ALOFT IN TANDEM WITH WEAK SFC
CONVERGENCE WILL RESULT IN VARIABLE CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
TODAY. HIGH PROBABILITY FOR RAIN APPEARS TO BE OVER CENTRAL MAINE
EASTWARD TO OUR EASTERN ZONES. MAX TEMPS WERE DERIVED MAINLY FROM
A BLEND OF THE MAV AND MET GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
ANY LIGHT SHOWERS DISSIPATE EARLY THIS EVENING AND WILL RESULT IN
A FAIR WX NIGHT ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL PROBABLY LINGER. ON
THURSDAY...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ROTATING AROUND THE LARGER PARENT
UPPER LOW TO OUR NW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. FORCING FOR
ASCENT WORKING IN TANDEM WITH COLD AIR ALOFT /AS LOW AS -17C AT
500MB/ SHOULD SPARK SHOWERS AND WIDELY SCT THUNDERSTORMS. THE
HIGHEST PROB FOR RAIN WILL BE OVER THE INTERIOR WHERE SHOWERS
SHOULD END UP BEING WIDESPREAD. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO TO
INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS...WITH HAIL BEING
THE MAIN THREAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM THE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
RETURN FLOW WILL BRING WARMER AIR BACK INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFFSHORE. EXPECT A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.

HIGH PRESSURE FORECAST TO SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY AS A
WARM FRONT SETS UP SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. SATURDAY LOOKING WARMER AND
MORE HUMID WITH A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS AWAY
FROM THE COAST. WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO WATCH THE ECMWF AS IT HAS
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING JUST TO OUR EAST AND MAY PROVIDE FOR
SHOWERS ALL DAY.

FRONT LIFTS INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY NIGHT AND STALLS ON
SUNDAY. SUNDAY LOOKING MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN
SOUTHERN AND COASTAL SECTIONS. SEVERAL WAVES OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE
FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL
KEEP SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST IN THE SOUTH THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST ON MONDAY. EXPECT
DIMINISHING CLOUDS BUT A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST WILL BRING A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE MOUNTAINS. HIGH TEMPS WILL ONCE AGAIN TOP OUT IN THE MID 70S
TO LOWER 80S.

COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SAG SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM...LOCAL VALLEY FOG THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO VFR
CONDITIONS. WDLY SCT SHOWERS MAY BRING CONDITIONS DOWN BRIEFLY
THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD
ON THURSDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE AWAY FROM COASTAL TERMINALS.

LONG TERM...VFR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...A FEW 5 FOOTERS POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN WATERS EARLY
THIS MORNING...OTHERWISE SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT. MARGINAL SCA SEAS MAY RETURN TO THE
OCEAN WATERS ON THU.

LONG TERM...NO PROBLEMS NOTED.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR/SHORT TERM...MLE





000
FXUS61 KGYX 300721
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
321 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT IN FROM THE WEST
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE EAST
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MAY AFFECT
THE AREA WITH SHOWERS ON SATURDAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN
NEARBY SUNDAY. THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST ON MONDAY. A
SECONDARY FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
CYCLONIC FLOW AND COLD TEMPS ALOFT IN TANDEM WITH WEAK SFC
CONVERGENCE WILL RESULT IN VARIABLE CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
TODAY. HIGH PROBABILITY FOR RAIN APPEARS TO BE OVER CENTRAL MAINE
EASTWARD TO OUR EASTERN ZONES. MAX TEMPS WERE DERIVED MAINLY FROM
A BLEND OF THE MAV AND MET GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
ANY LIGHT SHOWERS DISSIPATE EARLY THIS EVENING AND WILL RESULT IN
A FAIR WX NIGHT ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL PROBABLY LINGER. ON
THURSDAY...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ROTATING AROUND THE LARGER PARENT
UPPER LOW TO OUR NW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. FORCING FOR
ASCENT WORKING IN TANDEM WITH COLD AIR ALOFT /AS LOW AS -17C AT
500MB/ SHOULD SPARK SHOWERS AND WIDELY SCT THUNDERSTORMS. THE
HIGHEST PROB FOR RAIN WILL BE OVER THE INTERIOR WHERE SHOWERS
SHOULD END UP BEING WIDESPREAD. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO TO
INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS...WITH HAIL BEING
THE MAIN THREAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM THE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
RETURN FLOW WILL BRING WARMER AIR BACK INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFFSHORE. EXPECT A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.

HIGH PRESSURE FORECAST TO SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY AS A
WARM FRONT SETS UP SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. SATURDAY LOOKING WARMER AND
MORE HUMID WITH A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS AWAY
FROM THE COAST. WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO WATCH THE ECMWF AS IT HAS
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING JUST TO OUR EAST AND MAY PROVIDE FOR
SHOWERS ALL DAY.

FRONT LIFTS INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY NIGHT AND STALLS ON
SUNDAY. SUNDAY LOOKING MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN
SOUTHERN AND COASTAL SECTIONS. SEVERAL WAVES OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE
FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL
KEEP SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST IN THE SOUTH THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST ON MONDAY. EXPECT
DIMINISHING CLOUDS BUT A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST WILL BRING A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE MOUNTAINS. HIGH TEMPS WILL ONCE AGAIN TOP OUT IN THE MID 70S
TO LOWER 80S.

COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SAG SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM...LOCAL VALLEY FOG THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO VFR
CONDITIONS. WDLY SCT SHOWERS MAY BRING CONDITIONS DOWN BRIEFLY
THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD
ON THURSDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE AWAY FROM COASTAL TERMINALS.

LONG TERM...VFR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...A FEW 5 FOOTERS POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN WATERS EARLY
THIS MORNING...OTHERWISE SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT. MARGINAL SCA SEAS MAY RETURN TO THE
OCEAN WATERS ON THU.

LONG TERM...NO PROBLEMS NOTED.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR/SHORT TERM...MLE




000
FXUS61 KCAR 300449
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1249 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL SLOWLY BUILD TOWARD
THE REGION TONIGHT THEN MOVE EAST ON WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL APPROACH ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1245 AM UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED WITH THIS UPDATE AS
THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. MADE SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY, WINDS,
AND TEMPS FOR CURRENT TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
DRIER AND MUCH COOLER TONIGHT WITH FOG THE MAIN CONCERN AND THEN
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY. MORE ON THIS BELOW.

SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN 3RD OF THE CWA WILL BE
ENDING NEAR SUNSET AS AN UPPER TROF SWINGS ACROSS THE REGION.
CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE AS WELL AS HIGH PRES WORKS IN FROM THE WEST.
WINDS WILL DIE OFF AND W/CLEARING SKIES AND COOL TEMPERATURES, FOG
LOOKS TO BE A GOOD BET THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE CWA ESPECIALLY WHERE
RAIN FELL OVER THE LAST 24 HRS. DECIDED TO CARRY AREAS OF FOG IN
THE FORECAST THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL
DROP BACK INTO THE MID AND UPPER 40S ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST
W/LOW LYING AREAS SEEING AROUND 40 AND PERHAPS UPPER 30S FOR AREAS
SUCH AS ESTCOURT STATION. CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS WILL DROP
BACK TO A RANGE OF 55-55 DEGREES.

A DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. 12Z UA DID SHOW MOISTURE TUCKED IN FROM
925-850MBS AND THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE ENOUGH FORCING IN THE MID
LEVELS TO SUPPORT SOME SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND
WESTERN AREAS. SOUNDINGS DO GO UNSTABLE SOMEWHAT BUT INSTABILITY IS
NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE AND SB/MU CAPES REMAIN <500 JOULES/KG.
THEREFORE, LEFT THE MENTION OF TSTMS OUT OF THE FORECAST AND
CARRIED 30% FOR THE PRECIP CHANCES. COORDINATED W/GYX AND NERFC ON
QPF W/AMOUNTS BEING < 0.10" AREAL BASIN AVERAGE. AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S FOR JUST ABOUT THE
ENTIRE CWA W/THE EXCEPTION FOR THE COAST AS AN ONSHORE WIND
DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON COULD COOL THINGS DOWN SOME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A NEARLY STATIONARY UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL BE POSITIONED NEAR
THE QUEBEC/ONTARIO BORDER BETWEEN JAMES BAY AND THE GREAT LAKES
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. THE LOW THEN MOVES NORTHEAST AND WEAKENS.
AS THIS HAPPENS, A SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE LOW WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY. THUS, THURSDAY WILL
FEATURE THE BEST CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS OF THE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY TIMEFRAME, WITH A 40 TO 60 PERCENT CHANCE
THURSDAY (BEST CHANCE N/NW AREAS), AND A 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE
WEDNESDAY AND FRIDAY. CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW STRONG STORMS THURSDAY,
BUT NOT WORTH PUTTING IN ANY ENHANCED WORDING AT THIS POINT.

ANOTHER CONCERN WILL BE SOMEWHAT MOIST ONSHORE FLOW LEADING TO
MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST EACH MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LATEST LONG RANGE MODEL RUNS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE 12Z GFS
ESTABLISHING A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OF WESTERN ATLANTIC MOISTURE INTO
THE AREA SAT AND THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND DIURNAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ARE EXPECTED EARLY IN THE NEXT WEEK
WITH INTERMITTENT SHOWERS LINGERING ACROSS MOST AREAS THROUGH THE END
OF THE PERIOD. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EARLY EACH DAY SHOULD RESULT IN
NEAR SEASONAL TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR THIS EVENING. CONDITIONS WILL DROP TO MVFR AND
POSSIBLY IFR FOR A TIME LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
FOR ALL THE TERMINALS DUE TO FOG. THE FOG WILL LIFT QUICKLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING W/VFR RETURNING FOR THE DAY.

SHORT TERM: GENERALLY VFR DURING THE DAY AND EVENING WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY OUTSIDE OF LOCALIZED CONVECTION. LATE NIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING HOURS, MAY SEE SOME LOW CLOUDS AND FOG BRINGING
CONDITIONS TO MVFR/IFR, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST AND INTO BANGOR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WILL DROP THE SCA FOR THE INTRA-COASTAL WATERS. SEAS
STILL RUNNING 5 TO 6 FT ON THE COASTAL WATERS...AND THEY SHOULD
SLOWLY SUBSIDE LATER TONIGHT. FOG WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING W/VSBYS DROPPING DOWN TO 1NM OR LESS AT
TIMES. PRETTY QUIET ON THE WATERS FOR WEDNESDAY W/SSE WINDS 10 KTS
OR LESS AND SEAS DOWN TO 2-3 FT.

SHORT TERM: SEAS AND WINDS REMAINING BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.CLIMATE...
IS IS NOW THE 3RD WETTEST JULY ON RECORD AT BOTH BANGOR
AND CARIBOU. MORE DETAILS ARE AVAILABLE AT PWMPNSCAR OR NOUS41
KCAR. THE INFORMATION IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE TOP OF OUR WEB PAGE
AT: HTTP:/WEATHER.GOV/CAR
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 AM EDT EARLY
     THIS MORNING FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...HASTINGS/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...FOISY
LONG TERM...PJR
AVIATION...HASTINGS/HEWITT/FOISY
MARINE...HASTINGS/HEWITT/FOISY
CLIMATE...CB








000
FXUS61 KCAR 300449
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1249 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL SLOWLY BUILD TOWARD
THE REGION TONIGHT THEN MOVE EAST ON WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL APPROACH ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1245 AM UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED WITH THIS UPDATE AS
THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. MADE SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY, WINDS,
AND TEMPS FOR CURRENT TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
DRIER AND MUCH COOLER TONIGHT WITH FOG THE MAIN CONCERN AND THEN
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY. MORE ON THIS BELOW.

SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN 3RD OF THE CWA WILL BE
ENDING NEAR SUNSET AS AN UPPER TROF SWINGS ACROSS THE REGION.
CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE AS WELL AS HIGH PRES WORKS IN FROM THE WEST.
WINDS WILL DIE OFF AND W/CLEARING SKIES AND COOL TEMPERATURES, FOG
LOOKS TO BE A GOOD BET THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE CWA ESPECIALLY WHERE
RAIN FELL OVER THE LAST 24 HRS. DECIDED TO CARRY AREAS OF FOG IN
THE FORECAST THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL
DROP BACK INTO THE MID AND UPPER 40S ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST
W/LOW LYING AREAS SEEING AROUND 40 AND PERHAPS UPPER 30S FOR AREAS
SUCH AS ESTCOURT STATION. CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS WILL DROP
BACK TO A RANGE OF 55-55 DEGREES.

A DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. 12Z UA DID SHOW MOISTURE TUCKED IN FROM
925-850MBS AND THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE ENOUGH FORCING IN THE MID
LEVELS TO SUPPORT SOME SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND
WESTERN AREAS. SOUNDINGS DO GO UNSTABLE SOMEWHAT BUT INSTABILITY IS
NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE AND SB/MU CAPES REMAIN <500 JOULES/KG.
THEREFORE, LEFT THE MENTION OF TSTMS OUT OF THE FORECAST AND
CARRIED 30% FOR THE PRECIP CHANCES. COORDINATED W/GYX AND NERFC ON
QPF W/AMOUNTS BEING < 0.10" AREAL BASIN AVERAGE. AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S FOR JUST ABOUT THE
ENTIRE CWA W/THE EXCEPTION FOR THE COAST AS AN ONSHORE WIND
DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON COULD COOL THINGS DOWN SOME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A NEARLY STATIONARY UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL BE POSITIONED NEAR
THE QUEBEC/ONTARIO BORDER BETWEEN JAMES BAY AND THE GREAT LAKES
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. THE LOW THEN MOVES NORTHEAST AND WEAKENS.
AS THIS HAPPENS, A SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE LOW WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY. THUS, THURSDAY WILL
FEATURE THE BEST CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS OF THE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY TIMEFRAME, WITH A 40 TO 60 PERCENT CHANCE
THURSDAY (BEST CHANCE N/NW AREAS), AND A 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE
WEDNESDAY AND FRIDAY. CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW STRONG STORMS THURSDAY,
BUT NOT WORTH PUTTING IN ANY ENHANCED WORDING AT THIS POINT.

ANOTHER CONCERN WILL BE SOMEWHAT MOIST ONSHORE FLOW LEADING TO
MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST EACH MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LATEST LONG RANGE MODEL RUNS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE 12Z GFS
ESTABLISHING A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OF WESTERN ATLANTIC MOISTURE INTO
THE AREA SAT AND THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND DIURNAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ARE EXPECTED EARLY IN THE NEXT WEEK
WITH INTERMITTENT SHOWERS LINGERING ACROSS MOST AREAS THROUGH THE END
OF THE PERIOD. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EARLY EACH DAY SHOULD RESULT IN
NEAR SEASONAL TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR THIS EVENING. CONDITIONS WILL DROP TO MVFR AND
POSSIBLY IFR FOR A TIME LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
FOR ALL THE TERMINALS DUE TO FOG. THE FOG WILL LIFT QUICKLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING W/VFR RETURNING FOR THE DAY.

SHORT TERM: GENERALLY VFR DURING THE DAY AND EVENING WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY OUTSIDE OF LOCALIZED CONVECTION. LATE NIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING HOURS, MAY SEE SOME LOW CLOUDS AND FOG BRINGING
CONDITIONS TO MVFR/IFR, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST AND INTO BANGOR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WILL DROP THE SCA FOR THE INTRA-COASTAL WATERS. SEAS
STILL RUNNING 5 TO 6 FT ON THE COASTAL WATERS...AND THEY SHOULD
SLOWLY SUBSIDE LATER TONIGHT. FOG WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING W/VSBYS DROPPING DOWN TO 1NM OR LESS AT
TIMES. PRETTY QUIET ON THE WATERS FOR WEDNESDAY W/SSE WINDS 10 KTS
OR LESS AND SEAS DOWN TO 2-3 FT.

SHORT TERM: SEAS AND WINDS REMAINING BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.CLIMATE...
IS IS NOW THE 3RD WETTEST JULY ON RECORD AT BOTH BANGOR
AND CARIBOU. MORE DETAILS ARE AVAILABLE AT PWMPNSCAR OR NOUS41
KCAR. THE INFORMATION IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE TOP OF OUR WEB PAGE
AT: HTTP:/WEATHER.GOV/CAR
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 AM EDT EARLY
     THIS MORNING FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...HASTINGS/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...FOISY
LONG TERM...PJR
AVIATION...HASTINGS/HEWITT/FOISY
MARINE...HASTINGS/HEWITT/FOISY
CLIMATE...CB








000
FXUS61 KCAR 300449
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1249 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL SLOWLY BUILD TOWARD
THE REGION TONIGHT THEN MOVE EAST ON WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL APPROACH ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1245 AM UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED WITH THIS UPDATE AS
THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. MADE SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY, WINDS,
AND TEMPS FOR CURRENT TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
DRIER AND MUCH COOLER TONIGHT WITH FOG THE MAIN CONCERN AND THEN
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY. MORE ON THIS BELOW.

SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN 3RD OF THE CWA WILL BE
ENDING NEAR SUNSET AS AN UPPER TROF SWINGS ACROSS THE REGION.
CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE AS WELL AS HIGH PRES WORKS IN FROM THE WEST.
WINDS WILL DIE OFF AND W/CLEARING SKIES AND COOL TEMPERATURES, FOG
LOOKS TO BE A GOOD BET THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE CWA ESPECIALLY WHERE
RAIN FELL OVER THE LAST 24 HRS. DECIDED TO CARRY AREAS OF FOG IN
THE FORECAST THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL
DROP BACK INTO THE MID AND UPPER 40S ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST
W/LOW LYING AREAS SEEING AROUND 40 AND PERHAPS UPPER 30S FOR AREAS
SUCH AS ESTCOURT STATION. CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS WILL DROP
BACK TO A RANGE OF 55-55 DEGREES.

A DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. 12Z UA DID SHOW MOISTURE TUCKED IN FROM
925-850MBS AND THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE ENOUGH FORCING IN THE MID
LEVELS TO SUPPORT SOME SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND
WESTERN AREAS. SOUNDINGS DO GO UNSTABLE SOMEWHAT BUT INSTABILITY IS
NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE AND SB/MU CAPES REMAIN <500 JOULES/KG.
THEREFORE, LEFT THE MENTION OF TSTMS OUT OF THE FORECAST AND
CARRIED 30% FOR THE PRECIP CHANCES. COORDINATED W/GYX AND NERFC ON
QPF W/AMOUNTS BEING < 0.10" AREAL BASIN AVERAGE. AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S FOR JUST ABOUT THE
ENTIRE CWA W/THE EXCEPTION FOR THE COAST AS AN ONSHORE WIND
DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON COULD COOL THINGS DOWN SOME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A NEARLY STATIONARY UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL BE POSITIONED NEAR
THE QUEBEC/ONTARIO BORDER BETWEEN JAMES BAY AND THE GREAT LAKES
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. THE LOW THEN MOVES NORTHEAST AND WEAKENS.
AS THIS HAPPENS, A SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE LOW WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY. THUS, THURSDAY WILL
FEATURE THE BEST CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS OF THE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY TIMEFRAME, WITH A 40 TO 60 PERCENT CHANCE
THURSDAY (BEST CHANCE N/NW AREAS), AND A 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE
WEDNESDAY AND FRIDAY. CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW STRONG STORMS THURSDAY,
BUT NOT WORTH PUTTING IN ANY ENHANCED WORDING AT THIS POINT.

ANOTHER CONCERN WILL BE SOMEWHAT MOIST ONSHORE FLOW LEADING TO
MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST EACH MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LATEST LONG RANGE MODEL RUNS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE 12Z GFS
ESTABLISHING A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OF WESTERN ATLANTIC MOISTURE INTO
THE AREA SAT AND THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND DIURNAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ARE EXPECTED EARLY IN THE NEXT WEEK
WITH INTERMITTENT SHOWERS LINGERING ACROSS MOST AREAS THROUGH THE END
OF THE PERIOD. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EARLY EACH DAY SHOULD RESULT IN
NEAR SEASONAL TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR THIS EVENING. CONDITIONS WILL DROP TO MVFR AND
POSSIBLY IFR FOR A TIME LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
FOR ALL THE TERMINALS DUE TO FOG. THE FOG WILL LIFT QUICKLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING W/VFR RETURNING FOR THE DAY.

SHORT TERM: GENERALLY VFR DURING THE DAY AND EVENING WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY OUTSIDE OF LOCALIZED CONVECTION. LATE NIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING HOURS, MAY SEE SOME LOW CLOUDS AND FOG BRINGING
CONDITIONS TO MVFR/IFR, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST AND INTO BANGOR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WILL DROP THE SCA FOR THE INTRA-COASTAL WATERS. SEAS
STILL RUNNING 5 TO 6 FT ON THE COASTAL WATERS...AND THEY SHOULD
SLOWLY SUBSIDE LATER TONIGHT. FOG WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING W/VSBYS DROPPING DOWN TO 1NM OR LESS AT
TIMES. PRETTY QUIET ON THE WATERS FOR WEDNESDAY W/SSE WINDS 10 KTS
OR LESS AND SEAS DOWN TO 2-3 FT.

SHORT TERM: SEAS AND WINDS REMAINING BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.CLIMATE...
IS IS NOW THE 3RD WETTEST JULY ON RECORD AT BOTH BANGOR
AND CARIBOU. MORE DETAILS ARE AVAILABLE AT PWMPNSCAR OR NOUS41
KCAR. THE INFORMATION IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE TOP OF OUR WEB PAGE
AT: HTTP:/WEATHER.GOV/CAR
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 AM EDT EARLY
     THIS MORNING FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...HASTINGS/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...FOISY
LONG TERM...PJR
AVIATION...HASTINGS/HEWITT/FOISY
MARINE...HASTINGS/HEWITT/FOISY
CLIMATE...CB








000
FXUS61 KCAR 300449
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1249 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL SLOWLY BUILD TOWARD
THE REGION TONIGHT THEN MOVE EAST ON WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL APPROACH ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1245 AM UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED WITH THIS UPDATE AS
THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. MADE SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY, WINDS,
AND TEMPS FOR CURRENT TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
DRIER AND MUCH COOLER TONIGHT WITH FOG THE MAIN CONCERN AND THEN
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY. MORE ON THIS BELOW.

SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN 3RD OF THE CWA WILL BE
ENDING NEAR SUNSET AS AN UPPER TROF SWINGS ACROSS THE REGION.
CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE AS WELL AS HIGH PRES WORKS IN FROM THE WEST.
WINDS WILL DIE OFF AND W/CLEARING SKIES AND COOL TEMPERATURES, FOG
LOOKS TO BE A GOOD BET THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE CWA ESPECIALLY WHERE
RAIN FELL OVER THE LAST 24 HRS. DECIDED TO CARRY AREAS OF FOG IN
THE FORECAST THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL
DROP BACK INTO THE MID AND UPPER 40S ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST
W/LOW LYING AREAS SEEING AROUND 40 AND PERHAPS UPPER 30S FOR AREAS
SUCH AS ESTCOURT STATION. CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS WILL DROP
BACK TO A RANGE OF 55-55 DEGREES.

A DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. 12Z UA DID SHOW MOISTURE TUCKED IN FROM
925-850MBS AND THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE ENOUGH FORCING IN THE MID
LEVELS TO SUPPORT SOME SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND
WESTERN AREAS. SOUNDINGS DO GO UNSTABLE SOMEWHAT BUT INSTABILITY IS
NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE AND SB/MU CAPES REMAIN <500 JOULES/KG.
THEREFORE, LEFT THE MENTION OF TSTMS OUT OF THE FORECAST AND
CARRIED 30% FOR THE PRECIP CHANCES. COORDINATED W/GYX AND NERFC ON
QPF W/AMOUNTS BEING < 0.10" AREAL BASIN AVERAGE. AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S FOR JUST ABOUT THE
ENTIRE CWA W/THE EXCEPTION FOR THE COAST AS AN ONSHORE WIND
DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON COULD COOL THINGS DOWN SOME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A NEARLY STATIONARY UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL BE POSITIONED NEAR
THE QUEBEC/ONTARIO BORDER BETWEEN JAMES BAY AND THE GREAT LAKES
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. THE LOW THEN MOVES NORTHEAST AND WEAKENS.
AS THIS HAPPENS, A SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE LOW WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY. THUS, THURSDAY WILL
FEATURE THE BEST CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS OF THE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY TIMEFRAME, WITH A 40 TO 60 PERCENT CHANCE
THURSDAY (BEST CHANCE N/NW AREAS), AND A 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE
WEDNESDAY AND FRIDAY. CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW STRONG STORMS THURSDAY,
BUT NOT WORTH PUTTING IN ANY ENHANCED WORDING AT THIS POINT.

ANOTHER CONCERN WILL BE SOMEWHAT MOIST ONSHORE FLOW LEADING TO
MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST EACH MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LATEST LONG RANGE MODEL RUNS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE 12Z GFS
ESTABLISHING A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OF WESTERN ATLANTIC MOISTURE INTO
THE AREA SAT AND THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND DIURNAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ARE EXPECTED EARLY IN THE NEXT WEEK
WITH INTERMITTENT SHOWERS LINGERING ACROSS MOST AREAS THROUGH THE END
OF THE PERIOD. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EARLY EACH DAY SHOULD RESULT IN
NEAR SEASONAL TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR THIS EVENING. CONDITIONS WILL DROP TO MVFR AND
POSSIBLY IFR FOR A TIME LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
FOR ALL THE TERMINALS DUE TO FOG. THE FOG WILL LIFT QUICKLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING W/VFR RETURNING FOR THE DAY.

SHORT TERM: GENERALLY VFR DURING THE DAY AND EVENING WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY OUTSIDE OF LOCALIZED CONVECTION. LATE NIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING HOURS, MAY SEE SOME LOW CLOUDS AND FOG BRINGING
CONDITIONS TO MVFR/IFR, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST AND INTO BANGOR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WILL DROP THE SCA FOR THE INTRA-COASTAL WATERS. SEAS
STILL RUNNING 5 TO 6 FT ON THE COASTAL WATERS...AND THEY SHOULD
SLOWLY SUBSIDE LATER TONIGHT. FOG WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING W/VSBYS DROPPING DOWN TO 1NM OR LESS AT
TIMES. PRETTY QUIET ON THE WATERS FOR WEDNESDAY W/SSE WINDS 10 KTS
OR LESS AND SEAS DOWN TO 2-3 FT.

SHORT TERM: SEAS AND WINDS REMAINING BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.CLIMATE...
IS IS NOW THE 3RD WETTEST JULY ON RECORD AT BOTH BANGOR
AND CARIBOU. MORE DETAILS ARE AVAILABLE AT PWMPNSCAR OR NOUS41
KCAR. THE INFORMATION IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE TOP OF OUR WEB PAGE
AT: HTTP:/WEATHER.GOV/CAR
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 AM EDT EARLY
     THIS MORNING FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...HASTINGS/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...FOISY
LONG TERM...PJR
AVIATION...HASTINGS/HEWITT/FOISY
MARINE...HASTINGS/HEWITT/FOISY
CLIMATE...CB








000
FXUS61 KGYX 300206
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1006 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE NORTHEAST FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM EACH AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY IN THE
MOUNTAINS. A FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH ON SATURDAY. A
LONG WAVE RIDGE WILL BUILD IN TO START THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
10 PM...QUICK UPDATE TO ADJUST T/TD/SKY BASED ON CURRENT OBS...BUT
FORECAST GENERALLY UNCHANGED WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND COOL
MINS OVERNIGHT.

625 PM...CU/STRATOCU WILL DISSIPATE WITH THE HEATING. ACTUALLY
SEEING SOME BUILDUPS TO THE N OF THE OFFICE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE
BOUNDARY...BUT THESE DIMINISH TOO. ALSO...NOTING RETURN OF THIN
SMOKE LYR FROM THE VIS SAT IN THE UPPR LVLS THIS EVE...AS
TRAJECTORY WOULD ONCE AGAIN BRING IT IN FROM LARGE AREA OF FIRES
IN CANADIAN NW TERRITORIES AND NRN ALBERTA. LOWS WILL DROP INTO
THE MID TO UPPR 40S N AND 50S MOST EVERYWHERE ELSE. EXPECT SOME
PATCHY VALLEY FOG AS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
FOG WILL BURN OFF IN THE MORNING. AND WILL LEAVE A CLEAR SKY FOR A
SHORT TIME BUT EXPECT CU TO DEVELOP WITH THE CHANCE OF MOUNTAIN
SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON. UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN TO THE WEST
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH A LOBE OF ENERGY MOVING IN EARLY THURSDAY.
THIS WILL KICK OFF SHOWERS BEFORE DAWN ON THURSDAY SO POPS
INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WILL ADD SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALSO ALTHOUGH FOG MAY NOT BE A BIG FACTOR
DEPENDING ON WHEN THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS MOVE IN.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THURSDAY STARTS WITH A LONG WAVE TOUGH IN PLACE FROM JAMES BAY DOWN
TO THE GREAT LAKES. WE WILL SEE SEVERAL SHORT WAVES MOVE THROUGH
THIS TROUGH BEFORE IT FINALLY BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN ON SATURDAY.

THURSDAY WILL SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS A SHORT
WAVE MOVES OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND THROUGH THE REGION. ALOFT A
JET STREAK WILL SERVE TO CONCENTRATE CONVECTION ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM ACK TO YQB. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW 800-1000 J/KG
OF CAPE WITH A SIGNIFICANT PORTION IN THE HAIL GROWTH ZONE,
COMBINED WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE, HOWEVER AT THIS POINT CONFIDENCE FOR
ALL THE FACTORS COMBINING TOGETHER AT THE RIGHT TIME IS TOO LOW SO
HAVE LEFT JUST THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE MOMENT.

SCATTERED DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWER WILL CONTINUE FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AS A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES CONTINUE TO PROVIDE LIMITED
INSTABILITY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE DECREASES SIGNIFICANTLY BY THE END OF THE
WEEKEND AS SEVERAL GLOBAL MODELS TRY TO REPLACE THE LONG WAVE TROUGH
WITH A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE...WITH VARYING TIMING AND SUCCESS. HAVE
LEFT POPS FAIRLY LOW BASED ON A CONSENSUS BLEND, BUT EXPECT TO SEE
SOME VARIABILITY WITH THE START OF NEXT WEEK AS IT GETS CLOSER.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM...EXPECT MOSTLY VFR EXCEPT IFR IN PATCHY VALLEY FOG TONIGHT.

LONG TERM... EXPECT MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WILL EXTEND THE SCA FOR SEAS THROUGH 3AM WEDNESDAY
MORNING. OTHERWISE QUIET ON THE WATERS.

LONG TERM...QUIET WATERS NO HEADLINES EXPECTED DURING THE EXTENDED.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 3 AM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ150-152.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...







000
FXUS61 KCAR 300147
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
934 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL SLOWLY BUILD TOWARD
THE REGION TONIGHT THEN MOVE EAST ON WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL APPROACH ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
934 PM...A COOL/DRY EVENING AS WEAK HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE
AREA. MAINLY CLEAR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF A
CLEAR SKY...LIGHT/CALM WIND...AND WET GROUND WILL LEAD TO FOG
FORMATION. AREAS OF FOG ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY SO IN THE RIVER VALLEYS. POTENTIAL
THAT THE FOG COULD BECOME LOCALLY DENSE IN SPOTS. MINOR TWEAKS TO
THE HOURLY TEMP/DEW POINT/WIND GRIDS BASED ON THE 9 PM
OBSERVATIONS...OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ATTM.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
DRIER AND MUCH COOLER TONIGHT WITH FOG THE MAIN CONCERN AND THEN
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY. MORE ON THIS BELOW.

SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN 3RD OF THE CWA WILL BE
ENDING NEAR SUNSET AS AN UPPER TROF SWINGS ACROSS THE REGION.
CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE AS WELL AS HIGH PRES WORKS IN FROM THE WEST.
WINDS WILL DIE OFF AND W/CLEARING SKIES AND COOL TEMPERATURES, FOG
LOOKS TO BE A GOOD BET THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE CWA ESPECIALLY WHERE
RAIN FELL OVER THE LAST 24 HRS. DECIDED TO CARRY AREAS OF FOG IN
THE FORECAST THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL
DROP BACK INTO THE MID AND UPPER 40S ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST
W/LOW LYING AREAS SEEING AROUND 40 AND PERHAPS UPPER 30S FOR AREAS
SUCH AS ESTCOURT STATION. CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS WILL DROP
BACK TO A RANGE OF 55-55 DEGREES.

A DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. 12Z UA DID SHOW MOISTURE TUCKED IN FROM
925-850MBS AND THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE ENOUGH FORCING IN THE MID
LEVELS TO SUPPORT SOME SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND
WESTERN AREAS. SOUNDINGS DO GO UNSTABLE SOMEWHAT BUT INSTABILITY IS
NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE AND SB/MU CAPES REMAIN <500 JOULES/KG.
THEREFORE, LEFT THE MENTION OF TSTMS OUT OF THE FORECAST AND
CARRIED 30% FOR THE PRECIP CHANCES. COORDINATED W/GYX AND NERFC ON
QPF W/AMOUNTS BEING < 0.10" AREAL BASIN AVERAGE. AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S FOR JUST ABOUT THE
ENTIRE CWA W/THE EXCEPTION FOR THE COAST AS AN ONSHORE WIND
DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON COULD COOL THINGS DOWN SOME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A NEARLY STATIONARY UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL BE POSITIONED NEAR
THE QUEBEC/ONTARIO BORDER BETWEEN JAMES BAY AND THE GREAT LAKES
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. THE LOW THEN MOVES NORTHEAST AND WEAKENS.
AS THIS HAPPENS, A SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE LOW WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY. THUS, THURSDAY WILL
FEATURE THE BEST CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS OF THE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY TIMEFRAME, WITH A 40 TO 60 PERCENT CHANCE
THURSDAY (BEST CHANCE N/NW AREAS), AND A 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE
WEDNESDAY AND FRIDAY. CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW STRONG STORMS THURSDAY,
BUT NOT WORTH PUTTING IN ANY ENHANCED WORDING AT THIS POINT.

ANOTHER CONCERN WILL BE SOMEWHAT MOIST ONSHORE FLOW LEADING TO
MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST EACH MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LATEST LONG RANGE MODEL RUNS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE 12Z GFS
ESTABLISHING A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OF WESTERN ATLANTIC MOISTURE INTO
THE AREA SAT AND THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND DIURNAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ARE EXPECTED EARLY IN THE NEXT WEEK
WITH INTERMITTENT SHOWERS LINGERING ACROSS MOST AREAS THROUGH THE END
OF THE PERIOD. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EARLY EACH DAY SHOULD RESULT IN
NEAR SEASONAL TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR THIS EVENING. CONDITIONS WILL DROP TO MVFR AND
POSSIBLY IFR FOR A TIME LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
FOR ALL THE TERMINALS DUE TO FOG. THE FOG WILL LIFT QUICKLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING W/VFR RETURNING FOR THE DAY.

SHORT TERM: GENERALLY VFR DURING THE DAY AND EVENING WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY OUTSIDE OF LOCALIZED CONVECTION. LATE NIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING HOURS, MAY SEE SOME LOW CLOUDS AND FOG BRINGING
CONDITIONS TO MVFR/IFR, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST AND INTO BANGOR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WILL DROP THE SCA FOR THE INTRA-COASTAL WATERS. SEAS
STILL RUNNING 5 TO 6 FT ON THE COASTAL WATERS...AND THEY SHOULD
SLOWLY SUBSIDE LATER TONIGHT. FOG WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING W/VSBYS DROPPING DOWN TO 1NM OR LESS AT
TIMES. PRETTY QUIET ON THE WATERS FOR WEDNESDAY W/SSE WINDS 10 KTS
OR LESS AND SEAS DOWN TO 2-3 FT.

SHORT TERM: SEAS AND WINDS REMAINING BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.CLIMATE...
IS IS NOW THE 3RD WETTEST JULY ON RECORD AT BOTH BANGOR
AND CARIBOU. MORE DETAILS ARE AVAILABLE AT PWMPNSCAR OR NOUS41
KCAR. THE INFORMATION IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE TOP OF OUR WEB PAGE
AT: HTTP:/WEATHER.GOV/CAR

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 AM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...CB/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...FOISY
LONG TERM...PJR
AVIATION...CB/HEWITT/FOISY
MARINE...CB/HEWITT/FOISY
CLIMATE...CB












000
FXUS61 KCAR 300147
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
934 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL SLOWLY BUILD TOWARD
THE REGION TONIGHT THEN MOVE EAST ON WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL APPROACH ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
934 PM...A COOL/DRY EVENING AS WEAK HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE
AREA. MAINLY CLEAR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF A
CLEAR SKY...LIGHT/CALM WIND...AND WET GROUND WILL LEAD TO FOG
FORMATION. AREAS OF FOG ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY SO IN THE RIVER VALLEYS. POTENTIAL
THAT THE FOG COULD BECOME LOCALLY DENSE IN SPOTS. MINOR TWEAKS TO
THE HOURLY TEMP/DEW POINT/WIND GRIDS BASED ON THE 9 PM
OBSERVATIONS...OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ATTM.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
DRIER AND MUCH COOLER TONIGHT WITH FOG THE MAIN CONCERN AND THEN
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY. MORE ON THIS BELOW.

SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN 3RD OF THE CWA WILL BE
ENDING NEAR SUNSET AS AN UPPER TROF SWINGS ACROSS THE REGION.
CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE AS WELL AS HIGH PRES WORKS IN FROM THE WEST.
WINDS WILL DIE OFF AND W/CLEARING SKIES AND COOL TEMPERATURES, FOG
LOOKS TO BE A GOOD BET THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE CWA ESPECIALLY WHERE
RAIN FELL OVER THE LAST 24 HRS. DECIDED TO CARRY AREAS OF FOG IN
THE FORECAST THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL
DROP BACK INTO THE MID AND UPPER 40S ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST
W/LOW LYING AREAS SEEING AROUND 40 AND PERHAPS UPPER 30S FOR AREAS
SUCH AS ESTCOURT STATION. CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS WILL DROP
BACK TO A RANGE OF 55-55 DEGREES.

A DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. 12Z UA DID SHOW MOISTURE TUCKED IN FROM
925-850MBS AND THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE ENOUGH FORCING IN THE MID
LEVELS TO SUPPORT SOME SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND
WESTERN AREAS. SOUNDINGS DO GO UNSTABLE SOMEWHAT BUT INSTABILITY IS
NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE AND SB/MU CAPES REMAIN <500 JOULES/KG.
THEREFORE, LEFT THE MENTION OF TSTMS OUT OF THE FORECAST AND
CARRIED 30% FOR THE PRECIP CHANCES. COORDINATED W/GYX AND NERFC ON
QPF W/AMOUNTS BEING < 0.10" AREAL BASIN AVERAGE. AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S FOR JUST ABOUT THE
ENTIRE CWA W/THE EXCEPTION FOR THE COAST AS AN ONSHORE WIND
DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON COULD COOL THINGS DOWN SOME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A NEARLY STATIONARY UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL BE POSITIONED NEAR
THE QUEBEC/ONTARIO BORDER BETWEEN JAMES BAY AND THE GREAT LAKES
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. THE LOW THEN MOVES NORTHEAST AND WEAKENS.
AS THIS HAPPENS, A SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE LOW WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY. THUS, THURSDAY WILL
FEATURE THE BEST CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS OF THE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY TIMEFRAME, WITH A 40 TO 60 PERCENT CHANCE
THURSDAY (BEST CHANCE N/NW AREAS), AND A 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE
WEDNESDAY AND FRIDAY. CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW STRONG STORMS THURSDAY,
BUT NOT WORTH PUTTING IN ANY ENHANCED WORDING AT THIS POINT.

ANOTHER CONCERN WILL BE SOMEWHAT MOIST ONSHORE FLOW LEADING TO
MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST EACH MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LATEST LONG RANGE MODEL RUNS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE 12Z GFS
ESTABLISHING A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OF WESTERN ATLANTIC MOISTURE INTO
THE AREA SAT AND THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND DIURNAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ARE EXPECTED EARLY IN THE NEXT WEEK
WITH INTERMITTENT SHOWERS LINGERING ACROSS MOST AREAS THROUGH THE END
OF THE PERIOD. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EARLY EACH DAY SHOULD RESULT IN
NEAR SEASONAL TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR THIS EVENING. CONDITIONS WILL DROP TO MVFR AND
POSSIBLY IFR FOR A TIME LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
FOR ALL THE TERMINALS DUE TO FOG. THE FOG WILL LIFT QUICKLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING W/VFR RETURNING FOR THE DAY.

SHORT TERM: GENERALLY VFR DURING THE DAY AND EVENING WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY OUTSIDE OF LOCALIZED CONVECTION. LATE NIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING HOURS, MAY SEE SOME LOW CLOUDS AND FOG BRINGING
CONDITIONS TO MVFR/IFR, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST AND INTO BANGOR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WILL DROP THE SCA FOR THE INTRA-COASTAL WATERS. SEAS
STILL RUNNING 5 TO 6 FT ON THE COASTAL WATERS...AND THEY SHOULD
SLOWLY SUBSIDE LATER TONIGHT. FOG WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING W/VSBYS DROPPING DOWN TO 1NM OR LESS AT
TIMES. PRETTY QUIET ON THE WATERS FOR WEDNESDAY W/SSE WINDS 10 KTS
OR LESS AND SEAS DOWN TO 2-3 FT.

SHORT TERM: SEAS AND WINDS REMAINING BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.CLIMATE...
IS IS NOW THE 3RD WETTEST JULY ON RECORD AT BOTH BANGOR
AND CARIBOU. MORE DETAILS ARE AVAILABLE AT PWMPNSCAR OR NOUS41
KCAR. THE INFORMATION IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE TOP OF OUR WEB PAGE
AT: HTTP:/WEATHER.GOV/CAR

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 AM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...CB/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...FOISY
LONG TERM...PJR
AVIATION...CB/HEWITT/FOISY
MARINE...CB/HEWITT/FOISY
CLIMATE...CB











000
FXUS61 KCAR 300134
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
934 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL SLOWLY BUILD TOWARD
THE REGION TONIGHT THEN MOVE EAST ON WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL APPROACH ON THURSDAY.&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
934 PM...A COOL/DRY EVENING AS WEAK HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE
AREA. MAINLY CLEAR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF A
CLEAR SKY...LIGHT/CALM WIND...AND WET GROUND WILL LEAD TO FOG
FORMATION. AREAS OF FOG ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY SO IN THE RIVER VALLEYS. POTENTIAL
THAT THE FOG COULD BECOME LOCALLY DENSE IN SPOTS. MINOR TWEAKS TO
THE HOURLY TEMP/DEW POINT/WIND GRIDS BASED ON THE 9 PM
OBSERVATIONS...OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ATTM.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
DRIER AND MUCH COOLER TONIGHT WITH FOG THE MAIN CONCERN AND THEN
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY. MORE ON THIS BELOW.

SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN 3RD OF THE CWA WILL BE
ENDING NEAR SUNSET AS AN UPPER TROF SWINGS ACROSS THE REGION.
CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE AS WELL AS HIGH PRES WORKS IN FROM THE WEST.
WINDS WILL DIE OFF AND W/CLEARING SKIES AND COOL TEMPERATURES, FOG
LOOKS TO BE A GOOD BET THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE CWA ESPECIALLY WHERE
RAIN FELL OVER THE LAST 24 HRS. DECIDED TO CARRY AREAS OF FOG IN
THE FORECAST THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL
DROP BACK INTO THE MID AND UPPER 40S ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST
W/LOW LYING AREAS SEEING AROUND 40 AND PERHAPS UPPER 30S FOR AREAS
SUCH AS ESTCOURT STATION. CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS WILL DROP
BACK TO A RANGE OF 55-55 DEGREES.

A DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. 12Z UA DID SHOW MOISTURE TUCKED IN FROM
925-850MBS AND THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE ENOUGH FORCING IN THE MID
LEVELS TO SUPPORT SOME SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND
WESTERN AREAS. SOUNDINGS DO GO UNSTABLE SOMEWHAT BUT INSTABILITY IS
NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE AND SB/MU CAPES REMAIN <500 JOULES/KG.
THEREFORE, LEFT THE MENTION OF TSTMS OUT OF THE FORECAST AND
CARRIED 30% FOR THE PRECIP CHANCES. COORDINATED W/GYX AND NERFC ON
QPF W/AMOUNTS BEING < 0.10" AREAL BASIN AVERAGE. AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S FOR JUST ABOUT THE
ENTIRE CWA W/THE EXCEPTION FOR THE COAST AS AN ONSHORE WIND
DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON COULD COOL THINGS DOWN SOME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A NEARLY STATIONARY UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL BE POSITIONED NEAR
THE QUEBEC/ONTARIO BORDER BETWEEN JAMES BAY AND THE GREAT LAKES
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. THE LOW THEN MOVES NORTHEAST AND WEAKENS.
AS THIS HAPPENS, A SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE LOW WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY. THUS, THURSDAY WILL
FEATURE THE BEST CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS OF THE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY TIMEFRAME, WITH A 40 TO 60 PERCENT CHANCE
THURSDAY (BEST CHANCE N/NW AREAS), AND A 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE
WEDNESDAY AND FRIDAY. CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW STRONG STORMS THURSDAY,
BUT NOT WORTH PUTTING IN ANY ENHANCED WORDING AT THIS POINT.

ANOTHER CONCERN WILL BE SOMEWHAT MOIST ONSHORE FLOW LEADING TO
MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST EACH MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LATEST LONG RANGE MODEL RUNS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE 12Z GFS
ESTABLISHING A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OF WESTERN ATLANTIC MOISTURE INTO
THE AREA SAT AND THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND DIURNAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ARE EXPECTED EARLY IN THE NEXT WEEK
WITH INTERMITTENT SHOWERS LINGERING ACROSS MOST AREAS THROUGH THE END
OF THE PERIOD. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EARLY EACH DAY SHOULD RESULT IN
NEAR SEASONAL TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR THIS EVENING. CONDITIONS WILL DROP TO MVFR AND
POSSIBLY IFR FOR A TIME LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
FOR ALL THE TERMINALS DUE TO FOG. THE FOG WILL LIFT QUICKLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING W/VFR RETURNING FOR THE DAY.

SHORT TERM: GENERALLY VFR DURING THE DAY AND EVENING WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY OUTSIDE OF LOCALIZED CONVECTION. LATE NIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING HOURS, MAY SEE SOME LOW CLOUDS AND FOG BRINGING
CONDITIONS TO MVFR/IFR, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST AND INTO BANGOR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WILL DROP THE SCA FOR THE INTRA-COASTAL WATERS. SEAS
STILL RUNNING 5 TO 6 FT ON THE COASTAL WATERS...AND THEY SHOULD
SLOWLY SUBSIDE LATER TONIGHT. FOG WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING W/VSBYS DROPPING DOWN TO 1NM OR LESS AT
TIMES. PRETTY QUIET ON THE WATERS FOR WEDNESDAY W/SSE WINDS 10 KTS
OR LESS AND SEAS DOWN TO 2-3 FT.

SHORT TERM: SEAS AND WINDS REMAINING BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.CLIMATE...
IS IS NOW THE 3RD WETTEST JULY ON RECORD AT BOTH BANGOR
AND CARIBOU. MORE DETAILS ARE AVAILABLE AT PWMPNSCAR OR NOUS41
KCAR. THE INFORMATION IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE TOP OF OUR WEB PAGE
AT: HTTP:/WEATHER.GOV/CAR

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 AM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...CB/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...FOISY
LONG TERM...PJR
AVIATION...CB/HEWITT/FOISY
MARINE...CB/HEWITT/FOISY
CLIMATE...CB









000
FXUS61 KCAR 300134
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
934 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL SLOWLY BUILD TOWARD
THE REGION TONIGHT THEN MOVE EAST ON WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL APPROACH ON THURSDAY.&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
934 PM...A COOL/DRY EVENING AS WEAK HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE
AREA. MAINLY CLEAR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF A
CLEAR SKY...LIGHT/CALM WIND...AND WET GROUND WILL LEAD TO FOG
FORMATION. AREAS OF FOG ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY SO IN THE RIVER VALLEYS. POTENTIAL
THAT THE FOG COULD BECOME LOCALLY DENSE IN SPOTS. MINOR TWEAKS TO
THE HOURLY TEMP/DEW POINT/WIND GRIDS BASED ON THE 9 PM
OBSERVATIONS...OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ATTM.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
DRIER AND MUCH COOLER TONIGHT WITH FOG THE MAIN CONCERN AND THEN
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY. MORE ON THIS BELOW.

SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN 3RD OF THE CWA WILL BE
ENDING NEAR SUNSET AS AN UPPER TROF SWINGS ACROSS THE REGION.
CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE AS WELL AS HIGH PRES WORKS IN FROM THE WEST.
WINDS WILL DIE OFF AND W/CLEARING SKIES AND COOL TEMPERATURES, FOG
LOOKS TO BE A GOOD BET THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE CWA ESPECIALLY WHERE
RAIN FELL OVER THE LAST 24 HRS. DECIDED TO CARRY AREAS OF FOG IN
THE FORECAST THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL
DROP BACK INTO THE MID AND UPPER 40S ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST
W/LOW LYING AREAS SEEING AROUND 40 AND PERHAPS UPPER 30S FOR AREAS
SUCH AS ESTCOURT STATION. CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS WILL DROP
BACK TO A RANGE OF 55-55 DEGREES.

A DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. 12Z UA DID SHOW MOISTURE TUCKED IN FROM
925-850MBS AND THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE ENOUGH FORCING IN THE MID
LEVELS TO SUPPORT SOME SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND
WESTERN AREAS. SOUNDINGS DO GO UNSTABLE SOMEWHAT BUT INSTABILITY IS
NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE AND SB/MU CAPES REMAIN <500 JOULES/KG.
THEREFORE, LEFT THE MENTION OF TSTMS OUT OF THE FORECAST AND
CARRIED 30% FOR THE PRECIP CHANCES. COORDINATED W/GYX AND NERFC ON
QPF W/AMOUNTS BEING < 0.10" AREAL BASIN AVERAGE. AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S FOR JUST ABOUT THE
ENTIRE CWA W/THE EXCEPTION FOR THE COAST AS AN ONSHORE WIND
DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON COULD COOL THINGS DOWN SOME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A NEARLY STATIONARY UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL BE POSITIONED NEAR
THE QUEBEC/ONTARIO BORDER BETWEEN JAMES BAY AND THE GREAT LAKES
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. THE LOW THEN MOVES NORTHEAST AND WEAKENS.
AS THIS HAPPENS, A SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE LOW WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY. THUS, THURSDAY WILL
FEATURE THE BEST CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS OF THE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY TIMEFRAME, WITH A 40 TO 60 PERCENT CHANCE
THURSDAY (BEST CHANCE N/NW AREAS), AND A 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE
WEDNESDAY AND FRIDAY. CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW STRONG STORMS THURSDAY,
BUT NOT WORTH PUTTING IN ANY ENHANCED WORDING AT THIS POINT.

ANOTHER CONCERN WILL BE SOMEWHAT MOIST ONSHORE FLOW LEADING TO
MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST EACH MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LATEST LONG RANGE MODEL RUNS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE 12Z GFS
ESTABLISHING A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OF WESTERN ATLANTIC MOISTURE INTO
THE AREA SAT AND THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND DIURNAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ARE EXPECTED EARLY IN THE NEXT WEEK
WITH INTERMITTENT SHOWERS LINGERING ACROSS MOST AREAS THROUGH THE END
OF THE PERIOD. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EARLY EACH DAY SHOULD RESULT IN
NEAR SEASONAL TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR THIS EVENING. CONDITIONS WILL DROP TO MVFR AND
POSSIBLY IFR FOR A TIME LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
FOR ALL THE TERMINALS DUE TO FOG. THE FOG WILL LIFT QUICKLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING W/VFR RETURNING FOR THE DAY.

SHORT TERM: GENERALLY VFR DURING THE DAY AND EVENING WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY OUTSIDE OF LOCALIZED CONVECTION. LATE NIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING HOURS, MAY SEE SOME LOW CLOUDS AND FOG BRINGING
CONDITIONS TO MVFR/IFR, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST AND INTO BANGOR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WILL DROP THE SCA FOR THE INTRA-COASTAL WATERS. SEAS
STILL RUNNING 5 TO 6 FT ON THE COASTAL WATERS...AND THEY SHOULD
SLOWLY SUBSIDE LATER TONIGHT. FOG WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING W/VSBYS DROPPING DOWN TO 1NM OR LESS AT
TIMES. PRETTY QUIET ON THE WATERS FOR WEDNESDAY W/SSE WINDS 10 KTS
OR LESS AND SEAS DOWN TO 2-3 FT.

SHORT TERM: SEAS AND WINDS REMAINING BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.CLIMATE...
IS IS NOW THE 3RD WETTEST JULY ON RECORD AT BOTH BANGOR
AND CARIBOU. MORE DETAILS ARE AVAILABLE AT PWMPNSCAR OR NOUS41
KCAR. THE INFORMATION IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE TOP OF OUR WEB PAGE
AT: HTTP:/WEATHER.GOV/CAR

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 AM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...CB/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...FOISY
LONG TERM...PJR
AVIATION...CB/HEWITT/FOISY
MARINE...CB/HEWITT/FOISY
CLIMATE...CB








000
FXUS61 KCAR 292232
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
632 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL SLOWLY BUILD TOWARD
THE REGION TONIGHT THEN MOVE EAST ON WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL APPROACH ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
632 PM...QUITE A DIFFERENCE FROM LAST EVENING WHEN A MUGGY AIR
MASS AND STRONG SHORTWAVE FUELED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CWA THAT CONTINUED THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING. NOW...HIGH PRES IS
BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA WITH A MUCH DRIER AND COOLER AIR MASS.
CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE EARLY THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING MAKING FOR A CLEAR NIGHT. THE RECENT HEAVIER RAIN AND
LIGHT WIND WILL MEAN A GOOD CHANCE THAT FOG FORMS LATE THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...AND IT COULD POTENTIALLY BECOME DENSE IN A
FEW OF THE RIVER VALLEYS. OVERALL THE ONGOING FORECAST IS IN GOOD
SHAPE WITH ONLY MINOR TWEAKS BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND
SATELLITE PICTURES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
DRIER AND MUCH COOLER TONIGHT WITH FOG THE MAIN CONCERN AND THEN
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY. MORE ON THIS BELOW.

SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN 3RD OF THE CWA WILL BE
ENDING NEAR SUNSET AS AN UPPER TROF SWINGS ACROSS THE REGION.
CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE AS WELL AS HIGH PRES WORKS IN FROM THE WEST.
WINDS WILL DIE OFF AND W/CLEARING SKIES AND COOL TEMPERATURES, FOG
LOOKS TO BE A GOOD BET THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE CWA ESPECIALLY WHERE
RAIN FELL OVER THE LAST 24 HRS. DECIDED TO CARRY AREAS OF FOG IN
THE FORECAST THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL
DROP BACK INTO THE MID AND UPPER 40S ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST
W/LOW LYING AREAS SEEING AROUND 40 AND PERHAPS UPPER 30S FOR AREAS
SUCH AS ESTCOURT STATION. CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS WILL DROP
BACK TO A RANGE OF 55-55 DEGREES.

A DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. 12Z UA DID SHOW MOISTURE TUCKED IN FROM
925-850MBS AND THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE ENOUGH FORCING IN THE MID
LEVELS TO SUPPORT SOME SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND
WESTERN AREAS. SOUNDINGS DO GO UNSTABLE SOMEWHAT BUT INSTABILITY IS
NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE AND SB/MU CAPES REMAIN <500 JOULES/KG.
THEREFORE, LEFT THE MENTION OF TSTMS OUT OF THE FORECAST AND
CARRIED 30% FOR THE PRECIP CHANCES. COORDINATED W/GYX AND NERFC ON
QPF W/AMOUNTS BEING < 0.10" AREAL BASIN AVERAGE. AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S FOR JUST ABOUT THE
ENTIRE CWA W/THE EXCEPTION FOR THE COAST AS AN ONSHORE WIND
DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON COULD COOL THINGS DOWN SOME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A NEARLY STATIONARY UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL BE POSITIONED NEAR
THE QUEBEC/ONTARIO BORDER BETWEEN JAMES BAY AND THE GREAT LAKES
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. THE LOW THEN MOVES NORTHEAST AND WEAKENS.
AS THIS HAPPENS, A SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE LOW WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY. THUS, THURSDAY WILL
FEATURE THE BEST CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS OF THE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY TIMEFRAME, WITH A 40 TO 60 PERCENT CHANCE
THURSDAY (BEST CHANCE N/NW AREAS), AND A 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE
WEDNESDAY AND FRIDAY. CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW STRONG STORMS THURSDAY,
BUT NOT WORTH PUTTING IN ANY ENHANCED WORDING AT THIS POINT.

ANOTHER CONCERN WILL BE SOMEWHAT MOIST ONSHORE FLOW LEADING TO
MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST EACH MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LATEST LONG RANGE MODEL RUNS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE 12Z GFS
ESTABLISHING A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OF WESTERN ATLANTIC MOISTURE INTO
THE AREA SAT AND THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND DIURNAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ARE EXPECTED EARLY IN THE NEXT WEEK
WITH INTERMITTENT SHOWERS LINGERING ACROSS MOST AREAS THROUGH THE END
OF THE PERIOD. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EARLY EACH DAY SHOULD RESULT IN
NEAR SEASONAL TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR THIS EVENING. CONDITIONS WILL DROP TO MVFR AND
POSSIBLY IFR FOR A TIME LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
FOR ALL THE TERMINALS DUE TO FOG. THE FOG WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING W/VFR RETURNING FOR THE DAY.

SHORT TERM: GENERALLY VFR DURING THE DAY AND EVENING WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY OUTSIDE OF LOCALIZED CONVECTION. LATE NIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING HOURS, MAY SEE SOME LOW CLOUDS AND FOG BRINGING
CONDITIONS TO MVFR/IFR, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST AND INTO BANGOR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WILL DROP THE SCA FOR THE INTRA-COASTAL WATERS. SEAS
STILL RUNNING 5 TO 6 FT ON THE COASTAL WATERS...AND THEY SHOULD
SLOWLY SUBSIDE LATER TONIGHT. FOG WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING W/VSBYS DROPPING DOWN TO 1NM OR LESS AT
TIMES. PRETTY QUIET ON THE WATERS FOR WEDNESDAY W/SSE WINDS 10 KTS
OR LESS AND SEAS DOWN TO 2-3 FT.

SHORT TERM: SEAS AND WINDS REMAINING BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.CLIMATE...IS IS NOW THE 3RD WETTEST JULY ON RECORD AT BOTH BANGOR
AND CARIBOU. MORE DETAILS ARE AVAILABLE AT PWMPNSCAR OR NOUS41
KCAR. THE INFORMATION IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE TOP OF OUR WEB PAGE
AT: HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CAR

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 AM EDT
         WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ050>051.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...CB/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...FOISY
LONG TERM...PJR
AVIATION...CB/HEWITT/FOISY
MARINE...CB/HEWITT/FOISY
CLIMATE...CB





000
FXUS61 KCAR 292232
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
632 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL SLOWLY BUILD TOWARD
THE REGION TONIGHT THEN MOVE EAST ON WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL APPROACH ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
632 PM...QUITE A DIFFERENCE FROM LAST EVENING WHEN A MUGGY AIR
MASS AND STRONG SHORTWAVE FUELED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CWA THAT CONTINUED THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING. NOW...HIGH PRES IS
BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA WITH A MUCH DRIER AND COOLER AIR MASS.
CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE EARLY THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING MAKING FOR A CLEAR NIGHT. THE RECENT HEAVIER RAIN AND
LIGHT WIND WILL MEAN A GOOD CHANCE THAT FOG FORMS LATE THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...AND IT COULD POTENTIALLY BECOME DENSE IN A
FEW OF THE RIVER VALLEYS. OVERALL THE ONGOING FORECAST IS IN GOOD
SHAPE WITH ONLY MINOR TWEAKS BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND
SATELLITE PICTURES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
DRIER AND MUCH COOLER TONIGHT WITH FOG THE MAIN CONCERN AND THEN
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY. MORE ON THIS BELOW.

SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN 3RD OF THE CWA WILL BE
ENDING NEAR SUNSET AS AN UPPER TROF SWINGS ACROSS THE REGION.
CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE AS WELL AS HIGH PRES WORKS IN FROM THE WEST.
WINDS WILL DIE OFF AND W/CLEARING SKIES AND COOL TEMPERATURES, FOG
LOOKS TO BE A GOOD BET THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE CWA ESPECIALLY WHERE
RAIN FELL OVER THE LAST 24 HRS. DECIDED TO CARRY AREAS OF FOG IN
THE FORECAST THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL
DROP BACK INTO THE MID AND UPPER 40S ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST
W/LOW LYING AREAS SEEING AROUND 40 AND PERHAPS UPPER 30S FOR AREAS
SUCH AS ESTCOURT STATION. CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS WILL DROP
BACK TO A RANGE OF 55-55 DEGREES.

A DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. 12Z UA DID SHOW MOISTURE TUCKED IN FROM
925-850MBS AND THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE ENOUGH FORCING IN THE MID
LEVELS TO SUPPORT SOME SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND
WESTERN AREAS. SOUNDINGS DO GO UNSTABLE SOMEWHAT BUT INSTABILITY IS
NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE AND SB/MU CAPES REMAIN <500 JOULES/KG.
THEREFORE, LEFT THE MENTION OF TSTMS OUT OF THE FORECAST AND
CARRIED 30% FOR THE PRECIP CHANCES. COORDINATED W/GYX AND NERFC ON
QPF W/AMOUNTS BEING < 0.10" AREAL BASIN AVERAGE. AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S FOR JUST ABOUT THE
ENTIRE CWA W/THE EXCEPTION FOR THE COAST AS AN ONSHORE WIND
DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON COULD COOL THINGS DOWN SOME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A NEARLY STATIONARY UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL BE POSITIONED NEAR
THE QUEBEC/ONTARIO BORDER BETWEEN JAMES BAY AND THE GREAT LAKES
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. THE LOW THEN MOVES NORTHEAST AND WEAKENS.
AS THIS HAPPENS, A SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE LOW WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY. THUS, THURSDAY WILL
FEATURE THE BEST CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS OF THE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY TIMEFRAME, WITH A 40 TO 60 PERCENT CHANCE
THURSDAY (BEST CHANCE N/NW AREAS), AND A 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE
WEDNESDAY AND FRIDAY. CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW STRONG STORMS THURSDAY,
BUT NOT WORTH PUTTING IN ANY ENHANCED WORDING AT THIS POINT.

ANOTHER CONCERN WILL BE SOMEWHAT MOIST ONSHORE FLOW LEADING TO
MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST EACH MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LATEST LONG RANGE MODEL RUNS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE 12Z GFS
ESTABLISHING A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OF WESTERN ATLANTIC MOISTURE INTO
THE AREA SAT AND THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND DIURNAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ARE EXPECTED EARLY IN THE NEXT WEEK
WITH INTERMITTENT SHOWERS LINGERING ACROSS MOST AREAS THROUGH THE END
OF THE PERIOD. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EARLY EACH DAY SHOULD RESULT IN
NEAR SEASONAL TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR THIS EVENING. CONDITIONS WILL DROP TO MVFR AND
POSSIBLY IFR FOR A TIME LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
FOR ALL THE TERMINALS DUE TO FOG. THE FOG WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING W/VFR RETURNING FOR THE DAY.

SHORT TERM: GENERALLY VFR DURING THE DAY AND EVENING WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY OUTSIDE OF LOCALIZED CONVECTION. LATE NIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING HOURS, MAY SEE SOME LOW CLOUDS AND FOG BRINGING
CONDITIONS TO MVFR/IFR, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST AND INTO BANGOR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WILL DROP THE SCA FOR THE INTRA-COASTAL WATERS. SEAS
STILL RUNNING 5 TO 6 FT ON THE COASTAL WATERS...AND THEY SHOULD
SLOWLY SUBSIDE LATER TONIGHT. FOG WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING W/VSBYS DROPPING DOWN TO 1NM OR LESS AT
TIMES. PRETTY QUIET ON THE WATERS FOR WEDNESDAY W/SSE WINDS 10 KTS
OR LESS AND SEAS DOWN TO 2-3 FT.

SHORT TERM: SEAS AND WINDS REMAINING BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.CLIMATE...IS IS NOW THE 3RD WETTEST JULY ON RECORD AT BOTH BANGOR
AND CARIBOU. MORE DETAILS ARE AVAILABLE AT PWMPNSCAR OR NOUS41
KCAR. THE INFORMATION IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE TOP OF OUR WEB PAGE
AT: HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CAR

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 AM EDT
         WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ050>051.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...CB/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...FOISY
LONG TERM...PJR
AVIATION...CB/HEWITT/FOISY
MARINE...CB/HEWITT/FOISY
CLIMATE...CB





000
FXUS61 KCAR 292232
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
632 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL SLOWLY BUILD TOWARD
THE REGION TONIGHT THEN MOVE EAST ON WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL APPROACH ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
632 PM...QUITE A DIFFERENCE FROM LAST EVENING WHEN A MUGGY AIR
MASS AND STRONG SHORTWAVE FUELED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CWA THAT CONTINUED THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING. NOW...HIGH PRES IS
BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA WITH A MUCH DRIER AND COOLER AIR MASS.
CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE EARLY THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING MAKING FOR A CLEAR NIGHT. THE RECENT HEAVIER RAIN AND
LIGHT WIND WILL MEAN A GOOD CHANCE THAT FOG FORMS LATE THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...AND IT COULD POTENTIALLY BECOME DENSE IN A
FEW OF THE RIVER VALLEYS. OVERALL THE ONGOING FORECAST IS IN GOOD
SHAPE WITH ONLY MINOR TWEAKS BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND
SATELLITE PICTURES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
DRIER AND MUCH COOLER TONIGHT WITH FOG THE MAIN CONCERN AND THEN
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY. MORE ON THIS BELOW.

SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN 3RD OF THE CWA WILL BE
ENDING NEAR SUNSET AS AN UPPER TROF SWINGS ACROSS THE REGION.
CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE AS WELL AS HIGH PRES WORKS IN FROM THE WEST.
WINDS WILL DIE OFF AND W/CLEARING SKIES AND COOL TEMPERATURES, FOG
LOOKS TO BE A GOOD BET THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE CWA ESPECIALLY WHERE
RAIN FELL OVER THE LAST 24 HRS. DECIDED TO CARRY AREAS OF FOG IN
THE FORECAST THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL
DROP BACK INTO THE MID AND UPPER 40S ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST
W/LOW LYING AREAS SEEING AROUND 40 AND PERHAPS UPPER 30S FOR AREAS
SUCH AS ESTCOURT STATION. CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS WILL DROP
BACK TO A RANGE OF 55-55 DEGREES.

A DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. 12Z UA DID SHOW MOISTURE TUCKED IN FROM
925-850MBS AND THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE ENOUGH FORCING IN THE MID
LEVELS TO SUPPORT SOME SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND
WESTERN AREAS. SOUNDINGS DO GO UNSTABLE SOMEWHAT BUT INSTABILITY IS
NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE AND SB/MU CAPES REMAIN <500 JOULES/KG.
THEREFORE, LEFT THE MENTION OF TSTMS OUT OF THE FORECAST AND
CARRIED 30% FOR THE PRECIP CHANCES. COORDINATED W/GYX AND NERFC ON
QPF W/AMOUNTS BEING < 0.10" AREAL BASIN AVERAGE. AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S FOR JUST ABOUT THE
ENTIRE CWA W/THE EXCEPTION FOR THE COAST AS AN ONSHORE WIND
DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON COULD COOL THINGS DOWN SOME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A NEARLY STATIONARY UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL BE POSITIONED NEAR
THE QUEBEC/ONTARIO BORDER BETWEEN JAMES BAY AND THE GREAT LAKES
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. THE LOW THEN MOVES NORTHEAST AND WEAKENS.
AS THIS HAPPENS, A SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE LOW WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY. THUS, THURSDAY WILL
FEATURE THE BEST CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS OF THE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY TIMEFRAME, WITH A 40 TO 60 PERCENT CHANCE
THURSDAY (BEST CHANCE N/NW AREAS), AND A 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE
WEDNESDAY AND FRIDAY. CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW STRONG STORMS THURSDAY,
BUT NOT WORTH PUTTING IN ANY ENHANCED WORDING AT THIS POINT.

ANOTHER CONCERN WILL BE SOMEWHAT MOIST ONSHORE FLOW LEADING TO
MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST EACH MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LATEST LONG RANGE MODEL RUNS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE 12Z GFS
ESTABLISHING A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OF WESTERN ATLANTIC MOISTURE INTO
THE AREA SAT AND THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND DIURNAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ARE EXPECTED EARLY IN THE NEXT WEEK
WITH INTERMITTENT SHOWERS LINGERING ACROSS MOST AREAS THROUGH THE END
OF THE PERIOD. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EARLY EACH DAY SHOULD RESULT IN
NEAR SEASONAL TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR THIS EVENING. CONDITIONS WILL DROP TO MVFR AND
POSSIBLY IFR FOR A TIME LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
FOR ALL THE TERMINALS DUE TO FOG. THE FOG WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING W/VFR RETURNING FOR THE DAY.

SHORT TERM: GENERALLY VFR DURING THE DAY AND EVENING WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY OUTSIDE OF LOCALIZED CONVECTION. LATE NIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING HOURS, MAY SEE SOME LOW CLOUDS AND FOG BRINGING
CONDITIONS TO MVFR/IFR, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST AND INTO BANGOR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WILL DROP THE SCA FOR THE INTRA-COASTAL WATERS. SEAS
STILL RUNNING 5 TO 6 FT ON THE COASTAL WATERS...AND THEY SHOULD
SLOWLY SUBSIDE LATER TONIGHT. FOG WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING W/VSBYS DROPPING DOWN TO 1NM OR LESS AT
TIMES. PRETTY QUIET ON THE WATERS FOR WEDNESDAY W/SSE WINDS 10 KTS
OR LESS AND SEAS DOWN TO 2-3 FT.

SHORT TERM: SEAS AND WINDS REMAINING BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.CLIMATE...IS IS NOW THE 3RD WETTEST JULY ON RECORD AT BOTH BANGOR
AND CARIBOU. MORE DETAILS ARE AVAILABLE AT PWMPNSCAR OR NOUS41
KCAR. THE INFORMATION IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE TOP OF OUR WEB PAGE
AT: HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CAR

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 AM EDT
         WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ050>051.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...CB/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...FOISY
LONG TERM...PJR
AVIATION...CB/HEWITT/FOISY
MARINE...CB/HEWITT/FOISY
CLIMATE...CB





000
FXUS61 KCAR 292232
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
632 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL SLOWLY BUILD TOWARD
THE REGION TONIGHT THEN MOVE EAST ON WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL APPROACH ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
632 PM...QUITE A DIFFERENCE FROM LAST EVENING WHEN A MUGGY AIR
MASS AND STRONG SHORTWAVE FUELED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CWA THAT CONTINUED THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING. NOW...HIGH PRES IS
BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA WITH A MUCH DRIER AND COOLER AIR MASS.
CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE EARLY THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING MAKING FOR A CLEAR NIGHT. THE RECENT HEAVIER RAIN AND
LIGHT WIND WILL MEAN A GOOD CHANCE THAT FOG FORMS LATE THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...AND IT COULD POTENTIALLY BECOME DENSE IN A
FEW OF THE RIVER VALLEYS. OVERALL THE ONGOING FORECAST IS IN GOOD
SHAPE WITH ONLY MINOR TWEAKS BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND
SATELLITE PICTURES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
DRIER AND MUCH COOLER TONIGHT WITH FOG THE MAIN CONCERN AND THEN
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY. MORE ON THIS BELOW.

SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN 3RD OF THE CWA WILL BE
ENDING NEAR SUNSET AS AN UPPER TROF SWINGS ACROSS THE REGION.
CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE AS WELL AS HIGH PRES WORKS IN FROM THE WEST.
WINDS WILL DIE OFF AND W/CLEARING SKIES AND COOL TEMPERATURES, FOG
LOOKS TO BE A GOOD BET THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE CWA ESPECIALLY WHERE
RAIN FELL OVER THE LAST 24 HRS. DECIDED TO CARRY AREAS OF FOG IN
THE FORECAST THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL
DROP BACK INTO THE MID AND UPPER 40S ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST
W/LOW LYING AREAS SEEING AROUND 40 AND PERHAPS UPPER 30S FOR AREAS
SUCH AS ESTCOURT STATION. CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS WILL DROP
BACK TO A RANGE OF 55-55 DEGREES.

A DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. 12Z UA DID SHOW MOISTURE TUCKED IN FROM
925-850MBS AND THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE ENOUGH FORCING IN THE MID
LEVELS TO SUPPORT SOME SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND
WESTERN AREAS. SOUNDINGS DO GO UNSTABLE SOMEWHAT BUT INSTABILITY IS
NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE AND SB/MU CAPES REMAIN <500 JOULES/KG.
THEREFORE, LEFT THE MENTION OF TSTMS OUT OF THE FORECAST AND
CARRIED 30% FOR THE PRECIP CHANCES. COORDINATED W/GYX AND NERFC ON
QPF W/AMOUNTS BEING < 0.10" AREAL BASIN AVERAGE. AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S FOR JUST ABOUT THE
ENTIRE CWA W/THE EXCEPTION FOR THE COAST AS AN ONSHORE WIND
DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON COULD COOL THINGS DOWN SOME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A NEARLY STATIONARY UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL BE POSITIONED NEAR
THE QUEBEC/ONTARIO BORDER BETWEEN JAMES BAY AND THE GREAT LAKES
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. THE LOW THEN MOVES NORTHEAST AND WEAKENS.
AS THIS HAPPENS, A SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE LOW WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY. THUS, THURSDAY WILL
FEATURE THE BEST CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS OF THE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY TIMEFRAME, WITH A 40 TO 60 PERCENT CHANCE
THURSDAY (BEST CHANCE N/NW AREAS), AND A 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE
WEDNESDAY AND FRIDAY. CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW STRONG STORMS THURSDAY,
BUT NOT WORTH PUTTING IN ANY ENHANCED WORDING AT THIS POINT.

ANOTHER CONCERN WILL BE SOMEWHAT MOIST ONSHORE FLOW LEADING TO
MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST EACH MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LATEST LONG RANGE MODEL RUNS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE 12Z GFS
ESTABLISHING A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OF WESTERN ATLANTIC MOISTURE INTO
THE AREA SAT AND THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND DIURNAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ARE EXPECTED EARLY IN THE NEXT WEEK
WITH INTERMITTENT SHOWERS LINGERING ACROSS MOST AREAS THROUGH THE END
OF THE PERIOD. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EARLY EACH DAY SHOULD RESULT IN
NEAR SEASONAL TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR THIS EVENING. CONDITIONS WILL DROP TO MVFR AND
POSSIBLY IFR FOR A TIME LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
FOR ALL THE TERMINALS DUE TO FOG. THE FOG WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING W/VFR RETURNING FOR THE DAY.

SHORT TERM: GENERALLY VFR DURING THE DAY AND EVENING WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY OUTSIDE OF LOCALIZED CONVECTION. LATE NIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING HOURS, MAY SEE SOME LOW CLOUDS AND FOG BRINGING
CONDITIONS TO MVFR/IFR, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST AND INTO BANGOR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WILL DROP THE SCA FOR THE INTRA-COASTAL WATERS. SEAS
STILL RUNNING 5 TO 6 FT ON THE COASTAL WATERS...AND THEY SHOULD
SLOWLY SUBSIDE LATER TONIGHT. FOG WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING W/VSBYS DROPPING DOWN TO 1NM OR LESS AT
TIMES. PRETTY QUIET ON THE WATERS FOR WEDNESDAY W/SSE WINDS 10 KTS
OR LESS AND SEAS DOWN TO 2-3 FT.

SHORT TERM: SEAS AND WINDS REMAINING BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.CLIMATE...IS IS NOW THE 3RD WETTEST JULY ON RECORD AT BOTH BANGOR
AND CARIBOU. MORE DETAILS ARE AVAILABLE AT PWMPNSCAR OR NOUS41
KCAR. THE INFORMATION IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE TOP OF OUR WEB PAGE
AT: HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CAR

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 AM EDT
         WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ050>051.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...CB/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...FOISY
LONG TERM...PJR
AVIATION...CB/HEWITT/FOISY
MARINE...CB/HEWITT/FOISY
CLIMATE...CB





000
FXUS61 KGYX 292228
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
628 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE NORTHEAST FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM EACH AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY IN THE
MOUNTAINS. A FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH ON SATURDAY. A
LONG WAVE RIDGE WILL BUILD IN TO START THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
625 PM...CU/STRATOCU WILL DISSIPATE WITH THE HEATING. ACTUALLY
SEEING SOME BUILDUPS TO THE N OF THE OFFICE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE
BOUNDARY...BUT THESE DIMINISH TOO. ALSO...NOTING RETURN OF THIN
SMOKE LYR FROM THE VIS SAT IN THE UPPR LVLS THIS EVE...AS
TRAJECTORY WOULD ONCE AGAIN BRING IT IN FROM LARGE AREA OF FIRES
IN CANADIAN NW TERRITORIES AND NRN ALBERTA. LOWS WILL DROP INTO
THE MID TO UPPR 40S N AND 50S MOST EVERYWHERE ELSE. EXPECT SOME
PATCHY VALLEY FOG AS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
FOG WILL BURN OFF IN THE MORNING. AND WILL LEAVE A CLEAR SKY FOR A
SHORT TIME BUT EXPECT CU TO DEVELOP WITH THE CHANCE OF MOUNTAIN
SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON. UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN TO THE WEST
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH A LOBE OF ENERGY MOVING IN EARLY THURSDAY.
THIS WILL KICK OFF SHOWERS BEFORE DAWN ON THURSDAY SO POPS
INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WILL ADD SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALSO ALTHOUGH FOG MAY NOT BE A BIG FACTOR
DEPENDING ON WHEN THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS MOVE IN.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THURSDAY STARTS WITH A LONG WAVE TOUGH IN PLACE FROM JAMES BAY DOWN
TO THE GREAT LAKES. WE WILL SEE SEVERAL SHORT WAVES MOVE THROUGH
THIS TROUGH BEFORE IT FINALLY BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN ON SATURDAY.

THURSDAY WILL SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS A SHORT
WAVE MOVES OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND THROUGH THE REGION. ALOFT A
JET STREAK WILL SERVE TO CONCENTRATE CONVECTION ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM ACK TO YQB. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW 800-1000 J/KG
OF CAPE WITH A SIGNIFICANT PORTION IN THE HAIL GROWTH ZONE,
COMBINED WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE, HOWEVER AT THIS POINT CONFIDENCE FOR
ALL THE FACTORS COMBINING TOGETHER AT THE RIGHT TIME IS TOO LOW SO
HAVE LEFT JUST THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE MOMENT.

SCATTERED DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWER WILL CONTINUE FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AS A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES CONTINUE TO PROVIDE LIMITED
INSTABILITY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE DECREASES SIGNIFICANTLY BY THE END OF THE
WEEKEND AS SEVERAL GLOBAL MODELS TRY TO REPLACE THE LONG WAVE TROUGH
WITH A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE...WITH VARYING TIMING AND SUCCESS. HAVE
LEFT POPS FAIRLY LOW BASED ON A CONSENSUS BLEND, BUT EXPECT TO SEE
SOME VARIABILITY WITH THE START OF NEXT WEEK AS IT GETS CLOSER.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM...EXPECT MOSTLY VFR EXCEPT IFR IN PATCHY VALLEY FOG TONIGHT.

LONG TERM... EXPECT MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WILL EXTEND THE SCA FOR SEAS THROUGH 3AM WEDNESDAY
MORNING. OTHERWISE QUIET ON THE WATERS.

LONG TERM...QUIET WATERS NO HEADLINES EXPECTED DURING THE EXTENDED.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 3 AM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ150-152.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...






000
FXUS61 KGYX 292228
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
628 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE NORTHEAST FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM EACH AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY IN THE
MOUNTAINS. A FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH ON SATURDAY. A
LONG WAVE RIDGE WILL BUILD IN TO START THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
625 PM...CU/STRATOCU WILL DISSIPATE WITH THE HEATING. ACTUALLY
SEEING SOME BUILDUPS TO THE N OF THE OFFICE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE
BOUNDARY...BUT THESE DIMINISH TOO. ALSO...NOTING RETURN OF THIN
SMOKE LYR FROM THE VIS SAT IN THE UPPR LVLS THIS EVE...AS
TRAJECTORY WOULD ONCE AGAIN BRING IT IN FROM LARGE AREA OF FIRES
IN CANADIAN NW TERRITORIES AND NRN ALBERTA. LOWS WILL DROP INTO
THE MID TO UPPR 40S N AND 50S MOST EVERYWHERE ELSE. EXPECT SOME
PATCHY VALLEY FOG AS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
FOG WILL BURN OFF IN THE MORNING. AND WILL LEAVE A CLEAR SKY FOR A
SHORT TIME BUT EXPECT CU TO DEVELOP WITH THE CHANCE OF MOUNTAIN
SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON. UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN TO THE WEST
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH A LOBE OF ENERGY MOVING IN EARLY THURSDAY.
THIS WILL KICK OFF SHOWERS BEFORE DAWN ON THURSDAY SO POPS
INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WILL ADD SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALSO ALTHOUGH FOG MAY NOT BE A BIG FACTOR
DEPENDING ON WHEN THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS MOVE IN.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THURSDAY STARTS WITH A LONG WAVE TOUGH IN PLACE FROM JAMES BAY DOWN
TO THE GREAT LAKES. WE WILL SEE SEVERAL SHORT WAVES MOVE THROUGH
THIS TROUGH BEFORE IT FINALLY BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN ON SATURDAY.

THURSDAY WILL SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS A SHORT
WAVE MOVES OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND THROUGH THE REGION. ALOFT A
JET STREAK WILL SERVE TO CONCENTRATE CONVECTION ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM ACK TO YQB. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW 800-1000 J/KG
OF CAPE WITH A SIGNIFICANT PORTION IN THE HAIL GROWTH ZONE,
COMBINED WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE, HOWEVER AT THIS POINT CONFIDENCE FOR
ALL THE FACTORS COMBINING TOGETHER AT THE RIGHT TIME IS TOO LOW SO
HAVE LEFT JUST THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE MOMENT.

SCATTERED DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWER WILL CONTINUE FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AS A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES CONTINUE TO PROVIDE LIMITED
INSTABILITY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE DECREASES SIGNIFICANTLY BY THE END OF THE
WEEKEND AS SEVERAL GLOBAL MODELS TRY TO REPLACE THE LONG WAVE TROUGH
WITH A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE...WITH VARYING TIMING AND SUCCESS. HAVE
LEFT POPS FAIRLY LOW BASED ON A CONSENSUS BLEND, BUT EXPECT TO SEE
SOME VARIABILITY WITH THE START OF NEXT WEEK AS IT GETS CLOSER.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM...EXPECT MOSTLY VFR EXCEPT IFR IN PATCHY VALLEY FOG TONIGHT.

LONG TERM... EXPECT MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WILL EXTEND THE SCA FOR SEAS THROUGH 3AM WEDNESDAY
MORNING. OTHERWISE QUIET ON THE WATERS.

LONG TERM...QUIET WATERS NO HEADLINES EXPECTED DURING THE EXTENDED.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 3 AM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ150-152.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...







000
FXUS61 KCAR 291940
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
340 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL SLOWLY BUILD TOWARD
THE REGION TONIGHT THEN MOVE EAST ON WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL APPROACH ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DRIER AND MUCH COOLER TONIGHT WITH FOG THE MAIN CONCERN AND THEN
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY. MORE ON THIS BELOW.

SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN 3RD OF THE CWA WILL BE
ENDING NEAR SUNSET AS AN UPPER TROF SWINGS ACROSS THE REGION.
CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE AS WELL AS HIGH PRES WORKS IN FROM THE WEST.
WINDS WILL DIE OFF AND W/CLEARING SKIES AND COOL TEMPERATURES, FOG
LOOKS TO BE A GOOD BET THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE CWA ESPECIALLY WHERE
RAIN FELL OVER THE LAST 24 HRS. DECIDED TO CARRY AREAS OF FOG IN
THE FORECAST THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL
DROP BACK INTO THE MID AND UPPER 40S ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST
W/LOW LYING AREAS SEEING AROUND 40 AND PERHAPS UPPER 30S FOR AREAS
SUCH AS ESTCOURT STATION. CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS WILL DROP
BACK TO A RANGE OF 55-55 DEGREES.

A DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. 12Z UA DID SHOW MOISTURE TUCKED IN FROM
925-850MBS AND THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE ENOUGH FORCING IN THE MID
LEVELS TO SUPPORT SOME SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND
WESTERN AREAS. SOUNDINGS DO GO UNSTABLE SOMEWHAT BUT INSTABILITY IS
NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE AND SB/MU CAPES REMAIN <500 JOULES/KG.
THEREFORE, LEFT THE MENTION OF TSTMS OUT OF THE FORECAST AND
CARRIED 30% FOR THE PRECIP CHANCES. COORDINATED W/GYX AND NERFC ON
QPF W/AMOUNTS BEING < 0.10" AREAL BASIN AVERAGE. AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S FOR JUST ABOUT THE
ENTIRE CWA W/THE EXCEPTION FOR THE COAST AS AN ONSHORE WIND
DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON COULD COOL THINGS DOWN SOME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A NEARLY STATIONARY UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL BE POSITIONED NEAR
THE QUEBEC/ONTARIO BORDER BETWEEN JAMES BAY AND THE GREAT LAKES
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. THE LOW THEN MOVES NORTHEAST AND WEAKENS.
AS THIS HAPPENS, A SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE LOW WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY. THUS, THURSDAY WILL
FEATURE THE BEST CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS OF THE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY TIMEFRAME, WITH A 40 TO 60 PERCENT CHANCE
THURSDAY (BEST CHANCE N/NW AREAS), AND A 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE
WEDNESDAY AND FRIDAY. CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW STRONG STORMS THURSDAY,
BUT NOT WORTH PUTTING IN ANY ENHANCED WORDING AT THIS POINT.

ANOTHER CONCERN WILL BE SOMEWHAT MOIST ONSHORE FLOW LEADING TO
MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST EACH MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LATEST LONG RANGE MODEL RUNS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE 12Z GFS
ESTABLISHING A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OF WESTERN ATLANTIC MOISTURE INTO
THE AREA SAT AND THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND DIURNAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ARE EXPECTED EARLY IN THE NEXT WEEK
WITH INTERMITTENT SHOWERS LINGERING ACROSS MOST AREAS THROUGH THE END
OF THE PERIOD. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EARLY EACH DAY SHOULD RESULT IN
NEAR SEASONAL TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: CONDITIONS WILL DROP TO MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR FOR A
TIME LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR ALL THE
TERMINALS DUE TO FOG. THE FOG WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING W/VFR RETURNING FOR THE DAY.

SHORT TERM: GENERALLY VFR DURING THE DAY AND EVENING WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY OUTSIDE OF LOCALIZED CONVECTION. LATE NIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING HOURS, MAY SEE SOME LOW CLOUDS AND FOG BRINGING
CONDITIONS TO MVFR/IFR, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST AND INTO BANGOR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SEAS ARE STILL RUNNING 5 TO 6 FT W/WINDS 10-15 KTS.
DECIDED TO KEEP THE SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS THROUGH MIDNIGHT W/THE
EXPECTATION OF SEAS DROPPING BELOW 6 FT AS THE WINDS DROP OFF. FOG
WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING W/VSBYS
DROPPING DOWN TO 1NM OR LESS AT TIMES. PRETTY QUIET ON THE WATERS
FOR WEDNESDAY W/SSE WINDS 10 KTS OR LESS AND SEAS DOWN TO 2-3 FT.

SHORT TERM: SEAS AND WINDS REMAINING BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW.

&&


.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 AM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT
SHORT TERM...FOISY
LONG TERM...PJR
AVIATION...HEWITT/FOISY
MARINE...HEWITT/FOISY










000
FXUS61 KCAR 291940
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
340 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL SLOWLY BUILD TOWARD
THE REGION TONIGHT THEN MOVE EAST ON WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL APPROACH ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DRIER AND MUCH COOLER TONIGHT WITH FOG THE MAIN CONCERN AND THEN
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY. MORE ON THIS BELOW.

SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN 3RD OF THE CWA WILL BE
ENDING NEAR SUNSET AS AN UPPER TROF SWINGS ACROSS THE REGION.
CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE AS WELL AS HIGH PRES WORKS IN FROM THE WEST.
WINDS WILL DIE OFF AND W/CLEARING SKIES AND COOL TEMPERATURES, FOG
LOOKS TO BE A GOOD BET THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE CWA ESPECIALLY WHERE
RAIN FELL OVER THE LAST 24 HRS. DECIDED TO CARRY AREAS OF FOG IN
THE FORECAST THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL
DROP BACK INTO THE MID AND UPPER 40S ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST
W/LOW LYING AREAS SEEING AROUND 40 AND PERHAPS UPPER 30S FOR AREAS
SUCH AS ESTCOURT STATION. CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS WILL DROP
BACK TO A RANGE OF 55-55 DEGREES.

A DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. 12Z UA DID SHOW MOISTURE TUCKED IN FROM
925-850MBS AND THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE ENOUGH FORCING IN THE MID
LEVELS TO SUPPORT SOME SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND
WESTERN AREAS. SOUNDINGS DO GO UNSTABLE SOMEWHAT BUT INSTABILITY IS
NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE AND SB/MU CAPES REMAIN <500 JOULES/KG.
THEREFORE, LEFT THE MENTION OF TSTMS OUT OF THE FORECAST AND
CARRIED 30% FOR THE PRECIP CHANCES. COORDINATED W/GYX AND NERFC ON
QPF W/AMOUNTS BEING < 0.10" AREAL BASIN AVERAGE. AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S FOR JUST ABOUT THE
ENTIRE CWA W/THE EXCEPTION FOR THE COAST AS AN ONSHORE WIND
DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON COULD COOL THINGS DOWN SOME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A NEARLY STATIONARY UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL BE POSITIONED NEAR
THE QUEBEC/ONTARIO BORDER BETWEEN JAMES BAY AND THE GREAT LAKES
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. THE LOW THEN MOVES NORTHEAST AND WEAKENS.
AS THIS HAPPENS, A SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE LOW WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY. THUS, THURSDAY WILL
FEATURE THE BEST CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS OF THE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY TIMEFRAME, WITH A 40 TO 60 PERCENT CHANCE
THURSDAY (BEST CHANCE N/NW AREAS), AND A 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE
WEDNESDAY AND FRIDAY. CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW STRONG STORMS THURSDAY,
BUT NOT WORTH PUTTING IN ANY ENHANCED WORDING AT THIS POINT.

ANOTHER CONCERN WILL BE SOMEWHAT MOIST ONSHORE FLOW LEADING TO
MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST EACH MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LATEST LONG RANGE MODEL RUNS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE 12Z GFS
ESTABLISHING A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OF WESTERN ATLANTIC MOISTURE INTO
THE AREA SAT AND THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND DIURNAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ARE EXPECTED EARLY IN THE NEXT WEEK
WITH INTERMITTENT SHOWERS LINGERING ACROSS MOST AREAS THROUGH THE END
OF THE PERIOD. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EARLY EACH DAY SHOULD RESULT IN
NEAR SEASONAL TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: CONDITIONS WILL DROP TO MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR FOR A
TIME LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR ALL THE
TERMINALS DUE TO FOG. THE FOG WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING W/VFR RETURNING FOR THE DAY.

SHORT TERM: GENERALLY VFR DURING THE DAY AND EVENING WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY OUTSIDE OF LOCALIZED CONVECTION. LATE NIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING HOURS, MAY SEE SOME LOW CLOUDS AND FOG BRINGING
CONDITIONS TO MVFR/IFR, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST AND INTO BANGOR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SEAS ARE STILL RUNNING 5 TO 6 FT W/WINDS 10-15 KTS.
DECIDED TO KEEP THE SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS THROUGH MIDNIGHT W/THE
EXPECTATION OF SEAS DROPPING BELOW 6 FT AS THE WINDS DROP OFF. FOG
WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING W/VSBYS
DROPPING DOWN TO 1NM OR LESS AT TIMES. PRETTY QUIET ON THE WATERS
FOR WEDNESDAY W/SSE WINDS 10 KTS OR LESS AND SEAS DOWN TO 2-3 FT.

SHORT TERM: SEAS AND WINDS REMAINING BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW.

&&


.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 AM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT
SHORT TERM...FOISY
LONG TERM...PJR
AVIATION...HEWITT/FOISY
MARINE...HEWITT/FOISY











000
FXUS61 KGYX 291918
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
318 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE NORTHEAST FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM EACH AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY IN THE
MOUNTAINS. A FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH ON SATURDAY. A
LONG WAVE RIDGE WILL BUILD IN TO START THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
EXPECT CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. WITH A CLEAR SKY AND
LIGHT WINDS TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE 40S AND LOWER 50S
TONIGHT. EXPECT SOME PATCHY DENSE VALLEY FOG TO DEVELOP AROUND 07Z
OR 08Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
FOG WILL BURN OFF IN THE MORNING. AND WILL LEAVE A CLEAR SKY FOR A
SHORT TIME BUT EXPECT CU TO DEVELOP WITH THE CHANCE OF MOUNTAIN
SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON. UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN TO THE WEST
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH A LOBE OF ENERGY MOVING IN EARLY THURSDAY.
THIS WILL KICK OFF SHOWERS BEFORE DAWN ON THURSDAY SO POPS
INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WILL ADD SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALSO ALTHOUGH FOG MAY NOT BE A BIG FACTOR
DEPENDING ON WHEN THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS MOVE IN.


&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
 THURSDAY STARTS WITH A LONG WAVE TOUGH IN PLACE FROM JAMES BAY DOWN
TO THE GREAT LAKES. WE WILL SEE SEVERAL SHORT WAVES MOVE THROUGH
THIS TROUGH BEFORE IT FINALLY BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN ON SATURDAY.

THURSDAY WILL SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS A SHORT
WAVE MOVES OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND THROUGH THE REGION. ALOFT A
JET STREAK WILL SERVE TO CONCENTRATE CONVECTION ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM ACK TO YQB. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW 800-1000 J/KG
OF CAPE WITH A SIGNIFICANT PORTION IN THE HAIL GROWTH ZONE,
COMBINED WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE, HOWEVER AT THIS POINT CONFIDENCE FOR
ALL THE FACTORS COMBINING TOGETHER AT THE RIGHT TIME IS TOO LOW SO
HAVE LEFT JUST THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE MOMENT.

SCATTERED DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWER WILL CONTINUE FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AS A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES CONTINUE TO PROVIDE LIMITED
INSTABILITY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE DECREASES SIGNIFICANTLY BY THE END OF THE
WEEKEND AS SEVERAL GLOBAL MODELS TRY TO REPLACE THE LONG WAVE TROUGH
WITH A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE...WITH VARYING TIMING AND SUCCESS. HAVE
LEFT POPS FAIRLY LOW BASED ON A CONSENSUS BLEND, BUT EXPECT TO SEE
SOME VARIABILITY WITH THE START OF NEXT WEEK AS IT GETS CLOSER.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM...EXPECT MOSTLY VFR EXCEPT IFR IN PATCHY VALLEY FOG TONIGHT.

LONG TERM... EXPECT MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WILL EXTEND THE SCA FOR SEAS THROUGH 3AM WEDNESDAY
MORNING. OTHERWISE QUIET ON THE WATERS.

LONG TERM...QUIET WATERS NO HEADLINES EXPECTED DURING THE EXTENDED.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 3 AM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ150-152.

&&

$$
HAWLEY/CURTIS








000
FXUS61 KGYX 291918
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
318 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE NORTHEAST FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM EACH AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY IN THE
MOUNTAINS. A FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH ON SATURDAY. A
LONG WAVE RIDGE WILL BUILD IN TO START THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
EXPECT CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. WITH A CLEAR SKY AND
LIGHT WINDS TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE 40S AND LOWER 50S
TONIGHT. EXPECT SOME PATCHY DENSE VALLEY FOG TO DEVELOP AROUND 07Z
OR 08Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
FOG WILL BURN OFF IN THE MORNING. AND WILL LEAVE A CLEAR SKY FOR A
SHORT TIME BUT EXPECT CU TO DEVELOP WITH THE CHANCE OF MOUNTAIN
SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON. UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN TO THE WEST
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH A LOBE OF ENERGY MOVING IN EARLY THURSDAY.
THIS WILL KICK OFF SHOWERS BEFORE DAWN ON THURSDAY SO POPS
INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WILL ADD SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALSO ALTHOUGH FOG MAY NOT BE A BIG FACTOR
DEPENDING ON WHEN THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS MOVE IN.


&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
 THURSDAY STARTS WITH A LONG WAVE TOUGH IN PLACE FROM JAMES BAY DOWN
TO THE GREAT LAKES. WE WILL SEE SEVERAL SHORT WAVES MOVE THROUGH
THIS TROUGH BEFORE IT FINALLY BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN ON SATURDAY.

THURSDAY WILL SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS A SHORT
WAVE MOVES OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND THROUGH THE REGION. ALOFT A
JET STREAK WILL SERVE TO CONCENTRATE CONVECTION ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM ACK TO YQB. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW 800-1000 J/KG
OF CAPE WITH A SIGNIFICANT PORTION IN THE HAIL GROWTH ZONE,
COMBINED WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE, HOWEVER AT THIS POINT CONFIDENCE FOR
ALL THE FACTORS COMBINING TOGETHER AT THE RIGHT TIME IS TOO LOW SO
HAVE LEFT JUST THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE MOMENT.

SCATTERED DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWER WILL CONTINUE FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AS A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES CONTINUE TO PROVIDE LIMITED
INSTABILITY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE DECREASES SIGNIFICANTLY BY THE END OF THE
WEEKEND AS SEVERAL GLOBAL MODELS TRY TO REPLACE THE LONG WAVE TROUGH
WITH A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE...WITH VARYING TIMING AND SUCCESS. HAVE
LEFT POPS FAIRLY LOW BASED ON A CONSENSUS BLEND, BUT EXPECT TO SEE
SOME VARIABILITY WITH THE START OF NEXT WEEK AS IT GETS CLOSER.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM...EXPECT MOSTLY VFR EXCEPT IFR IN PATCHY VALLEY FOG TONIGHT.

LONG TERM... EXPECT MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WILL EXTEND THE SCA FOR SEAS THROUGH 3AM WEDNESDAY
MORNING. OTHERWISE QUIET ON THE WATERS.

LONG TERM...QUIET WATERS NO HEADLINES EXPECTED DURING THE EXTENDED.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 3 AM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ150-152.

&&

$$
HAWLEY/CURTIS








000
FXUS61 KGYX 291918
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
318 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE NORTHEAST FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM EACH AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY IN THE
MOUNTAINS. A FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH ON SATURDAY. A
LONG WAVE RIDGE WILL BUILD IN TO START THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
EXPECT CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. WITH A CLEAR SKY AND
LIGHT WINDS TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE 40S AND LOWER 50S
TONIGHT. EXPECT SOME PATCHY DENSE VALLEY FOG TO DEVELOP AROUND 07Z
OR 08Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
FOG WILL BURN OFF IN THE MORNING. AND WILL LEAVE A CLEAR SKY FOR A
SHORT TIME BUT EXPECT CU TO DEVELOP WITH THE CHANCE OF MOUNTAIN
SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON. UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN TO THE WEST
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH A LOBE OF ENERGY MOVING IN EARLY THURSDAY.
THIS WILL KICK OFF SHOWERS BEFORE DAWN ON THURSDAY SO POPS
INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WILL ADD SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALSO ALTHOUGH FOG MAY NOT BE A BIG FACTOR
DEPENDING ON WHEN THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS MOVE IN.


&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
 THURSDAY STARTS WITH A LONG WAVE TOUGH IN PLACE FROM JAMES BAY DOWN
TO THE GREAT LAKES. WE WILL SEE SEVERAL SHORT WAVES MOVE THROUGH
THIS TROUGH BEFORE IT FINALLY BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN ON SATURDAY.

THURSDAY WILL SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS A SHORT
WAVE MOVES OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND THROUGH THE REGION. ALOFT A
JET STREAK WILL SERVE TO CONCENTRATE CONVECTION ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM ACK TO YQB. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW 800-1000 J/KG
OF CAPE WITH A SIGNIFICANT PORTION IN THE HAIL GROWTH ZONE,
COMBINED WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE, HOWEVER AT THIS POINT CONFIDENCE FOR
ALL THE FACTORS COMBINING TOGETHER AT THE RIGHT TIME IS TOO LOW SO
HAVE LEFT JUST THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE MOMENT.

SCATTERED DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWER WILL CONTINUE FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AS A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES CONTINUE TO PROVIDE LIMITED
INSTABILITY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE DECREASES SIGNIFICANTLY BY THE END OF THE
WEEKEND AS SEVERAL GLOBAL MODELS TRY TO REPLACE THE LONG WAVE TROUGH
WITH A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE...WITH VARYING TIMING AND SUCCESS. HAVE
LEFT POPS FAIRLY LOW BASED ON A CONSENSUS BLEND, BUT EXPECT TO SEE
SOME VARIABILITY WITH THE START OF NEXT WEEK AS IT GETS CLOSER.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM...EXPECT MOSTLY VFR EXCEPT IFR IN PATCHY VALLEY FOG TONIGHT.

LONG TERM... EXPECT MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WILL EXTEND THE SCA FOR SEAS THROUGH 3AM WEDNESDAY
MORNING. OTHERWISE QUIET ON THE WATERS.

LONG TERM...QUIET WATERS NO HEADLINES EXPECTED DURING THE EXTENDED.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 3 AM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ150-152.

&&

$$
HAWLEY/CURTIS








000
FXUS61 KGYX 291918
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
318 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE NORTHEAST FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM EACH AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY IN THE
MOUNTAINS. A FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH ON SATURDAY. A
LONG WAVE RIDGE WILL BUILD IN TO START THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
EXPECT CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. WITH A CLEAR SKY AND
LIGHT WINDS TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE 40S AND LOWER 50S
TONIGHT. EXPECT SOME PATCHY DENSE VALLEY FOG TO DEVELOP AROUND 07Z
OR 08Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
FOG WILL BURN OFF IN THE MORNING. AND WILL LEAVE A CLEAR SKY FOR A
SHORT TIME BUT EXPECT CU TO DEVELOP WITH THE CHANCE OF MOUNTAIN
SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON. UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN TO THE WEST
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH A LOBE OF ENERGY MOVING IN EARLY THURSDAY.
THIS WILL KICK OFF SHOWERS BEFORE DAWN ON THURSDAY SO POPS
INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WILL ADD SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALSO ALTHOUGH FOG MAY NOT BE A BIG FACTOR
DEPENDING ON WHEN THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS MOVE IN.


&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
 THURSDAY STARTS WITH A LONG WAVE TOUGH IN PLACE FROM JAMES BAY DOWN
TO THE GREAT LAKES. WE WILL SEE SEVERAL SHORT WAVES MOVE THROUGH
THIS TROUGH BEFORE IT FINALLY BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN ON SATURDAY.

THURSDAY WILL SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS A SHORT
WAVE MOVES OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND THROUGH THE REGION. ALOFT A
JET STREAK WILL SERVE TO CONCENTRATE CONVECTION ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM ACK TO YQB. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW 800-1000 J/KG
OF CAPE WITH A SIGNIFICANT PORTION IN THE HAIL GROWTH ZONE,
COMBINED WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE, HOWEVER AT THIS POINT CONFIDENCE FOR
ALL THE FACTORS COMBINING TOGETHER AT THE RIGHT TIME IS TOO LOW SO
HAVE LEFT JUST THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE MOMENT.

SCATTERED DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWER WILL CONTINUE FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AS A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES CONTINUE TO PROVIDE LIMITED
INSTABILITY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE DECREASES SIGNIFICANTLY BY THE END OF THE
WEEKEND AS SEVERAL GLOBAL MODELS TRY TO REPLACE THE LONG WAVE TROUGH
WITH A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE...WITH VARYING TIMING AND SUCCESS. HAVE
LEFT POPS FAIRLY LOW BASED ON A CONSENSUS BLEND, BUT EXPECT TO SEE
SOME VARIABILITY WITH THE START OF NEXT WEEK AS IT GETS CLOSER.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM...EXPECT MOSTLY VFR EXCEPT IFR IN PATCHY VALLEY FOG TONIGHT.

LONG TERM... EXPECT MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WILL EXTEND THE SCA FOR SEAS THROUGH 3AM WEDNESDAY
MORNING. OTHERWISE QUIET ON THE WATERS.

LONG TERM...QUIET WATERS NO HEADLINES EXPECTED DURING THE EXTENDED.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 3 AM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ150-152.

&&

$$
HAWLEY/CURTIS








000
FXUS61 KCAR 291717
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
117 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL THEN SLOWLY BUILD TOWARD THE
REGION TONIGHT THEN MOVE EAST ON WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL APPROACH ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1 PM UPDATE...ADJUSTED THE POPS TO KEEP 20-30% CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE LATEST RADAR LOOP
SHOWED SOME SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH AND CENTRAL
AROOSTOOK COUNTY. THESE SHOWERS WILL DIES OUT AROUND SUNSET W/SKIES
CLEARING OUT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH TO OUR EAST BY THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH DRIER AIR SPILLING IN BEHIND IT, EFFECTIVELY
BRINGING THE RAIN CHANCES TO AN END FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NEAR
TERM PERIOD. SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL.
HIGHS TODAY WILL GENERALLY TOP OUT IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

FOR TONIGHT...BRIEF RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO NEW ENGLAND. CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S
AREA WIDE, WHILE THE USUAL COLD SPOTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MAINE WOODS
WILL SEE LOWS IN THE 40S. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM
ANTECEDENT RAINS WILL RESULT IN FOG DEVELOPMENT AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODELS CONT TO INDICATE DEEPER TROP MOISTURE TO REMAIN WELL E OF
THE FA THRU THIS PTN OF THE FCST. INSTEAD...S/WVS ROTATING ARND
AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG MID LVL VORTEX OVR E-CNTRL CAN WILL AFFECT
MSLY WRN/NRN PTNS OF THE FA. THE FIRST...WEAK S/WV WILL BRING
ISOLD TO SCT SHWRS AND TSTMS WED AFTN OVR THESE PTNS OF THE FA.

AFT A BREAK LATER WED NGT INTO THU MORN...WHICH WILL FEATURE
PATCHY FOG YIELDING TO PRTL SUNSHINE...A SECOND STRONGER S/WV APCH
FROM THE WSW WILL BRING A BETTER CHC OF AFTN/EVE SHWRS AND TSTMS
THU AFTN INTO ERLY EVE...AGAIN MSLY ACROSS THE W AND N...BUT
POSSIBLY REACHING FURTHER S THAN WED...PERHAPS INTO E CNTRL PTNS
OF THE FA. ANY REMAINING SHWRS/TSTMS SHOULD DISSIPATE LATE THU NGT
WITH MORE PATCHY LATE NGT FOG.

FRI LOOKS TO BE PTLY SUNNY AND SOMEWHAT DRIER BEHIND THE SECOND
S/WV. TEMPS WILL CONT WITH NEAR NORMAL OVRNGT LOWS AND AT OR JUST
ABV NORMAL AFTN HI TEMPS THRU THE SHORT TERM.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LATEST 00Z OPNL ECMWF MODEL RUN NOW SEEMS TO BE IN BE BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THE 00Z GFS IN BRINGING MORE MOISTURE FROM THE WRN
ATLC NWRD INTO THE FA BEGINNING LATE FRI NGT AND INTO SAT AND SUN.
THIS HAS RESULTED IN MORE IN THE WAY OF POPS FOR OUR FA COMPARED
TO WHAT WE INTRODUCED YSTDY...SPCLY FOR SAT AND SUN AFTN/EVE WHERE
DIURNAL HTG/LLVL INSTABILITY WILL AID IN SCT SHWRS AND TSTMS. BETTER
AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE LONGER RANGE MODELS IS LIKELY RELATED THE
ECMWF MODEL SOLUTION BACKING OFF ON THE AMOUNT OF RETROGRESSION OF
THE WRN ATLC UPPER RIDGE BACK TOWARD THE NEW ENG COAST. DESPITE A
GREATER POTENTIAL OF MSLY AFTN/EVE SHWRS/TSTMS...PRTL SUNSHINE IN THE
MORN SHOULD RESULT IN NEAR SEASONAL HI TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION ON
BOTH DAYS. LONGER RANGE MODELS THEN DISAGREE FOR MON...WITH THE
GFS SHOWING DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS AND THE ECMWF SHOWING
ANOTHER S/WV ARRIVING FROM THE W LATE IN THE DAY. BLENDED MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS POPS FOR SCT AFTN SHWRS/TSTMS MON AFTN ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION...WHICH IS WHAT WE SETTLED ON FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MAINLY IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY THIS
MORNING DUE TO LOW CEILINGS AND FOG. OCCASIONAL MVFR POSSIBLE.
CONDITIONS WILL RAPIDLY IMPROVE LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE USHERS DRIER AIR INTO THE
REGION. VFR EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS BY 18Z.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: MSLY VFR ALL TAF SITES...XCPT LCLY MVFR/IFR IN
LATE NIGHT PATCHY FOG WED NGT AND THU NGT AND IN ANY TSTM/HEAVIER SHWR
OVR NRN TAF SITES THU AFTN/ERLY EVE.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SEAS HAVE FINALLY STARTED BUILDING TO AROUND 5 FEET
THIS MORNING, AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. WAVES
OF 4 TO 6 FEET ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT.


SHORT TO LONG TERM: NO HDLNS ANTICIPATED FOR THIS PTN OF THE
FCST...WITH WV HTS XPCTD TO CONT TO SUBSIDE FROM THE NEAR TERM.
WENT WITH ABOUT 75 PERCENT OF THE WV HTS FROM WW3 WV GUIDANCE FOR
THIS PD.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 AM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT






000
FXUS61 KCAR 291717
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
117 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL THEN SLOWLY BUILD TOWARD THE
REGION TONIGHT THEN MOVE EAST ON WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL APPROACH ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1 PM UPDATE...ADJUSTED THE POPS TO KEEP 20-30% CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE LATEST RADAR LOOP
SHOWED SOME SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH AND CENTRAL
AROOSTOOK COUNTY. THESE SHOWERS WILL DIES OUT AROUND SUNSET W/SKIES
CLEARING OUT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH TO OUR EAST BY THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH DRIER AIR SPILLING IN BEHIND IT, EFFECTIVELY
BRINGING THE RAIN CHANCES TO AN END FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NEAR
TERM PERIOD. SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL.
HIGHS TODAY WILL GENERALLY TOP OUT IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

FOR TONIGHT...BRIEF RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO NEW ENGLAND. CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S
AREA WIDE, WHILE THE USUAL COLD SPOTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MAINE WOODS
WILL SEE LOWS IN THE 40S. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM
ANTECEDENT RAINS WILL RESULT IN FOG DEVELOPMENT AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODELS CONT TO INDICATE DEEPER TROP MOISTURE TO REMAIN WELL E OF
THE FA THRU THIS PTN OF THE FCST. INSTEAD...S/WVS ROTATING ARND
AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG MID LVL VORTEX OVR E-CNTRL CAN WILL AFFECT
MSLY WRN/NRN PTNS OF THE FA. THE FIRST...WEAK S/WV WILL BRING
ISOLD TO SCT SHWRS AND TSTMS WED AFTN OVR THESE PTNS OF THE FA.

AFT A BREAK LATER WED NGT INTO THU MORN...WHICH WILL FEATURE
PATCHY FOG YIELDING TO PRTL SUNSHINE...A SECOND STRONGER S/WV APCH
FROM THE WSW WILL BRING A BETTER CHC OF AFTN/EVE SHWRS AND TSTMS
THU AFTN INTO ERLY EVE...AGAIN MSLY ACROSS THE W AND N...BUT
POSSIBLY REACHING FURTHER S THAN WED...PERHAPS INTO E CNTRL PTNS
OF THE FA. ANY REMAINING SHWRS/TSTMS SHOULD DISSIPATE LATE THU NGT
WITH MORE PATCHY LATE NGT FOG.

FRI LOOKS TO BE PTLY SUNNY AND SOMEWHAT DRIER BEHIND THE SECOND
S/WV. TEMPS WILL CONT WITH NEAR NORMAL OVRNGT LOWS AND AT OR JUST
ABV NORMAL AFTN HI TEMPS THRU THE SHORT TERM.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LATEST 00Z OPNL ECMWF MODEL RUN NOW SEEMS TO BE IN BE BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THE 00Z GFS IN BRINGING MORE MOISTURE FROM THE WRN
ATLC NWRD INTO THE FA BEGINNING LATE FRI NGT AND INTO SAT AND SUN.
THIS HAS RESULTED IN MORE IN THE WAY OF POPS FOR OUR FA COMPARED
TO WHAT WE INTRODUCED YSTDY...SPCLY FOR SAT AND SUN AFTN/EVE WHERE
DIURNAL HTG/LLVL INSTABILITY WILL AID IN SCT SHWRS AND TSTMS. BETTER
AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE LONGER RANGE MODELS IS LIKELY RELATED THE
ECMWF MODEL SOLUTION BACKING OFF ON THE AMOUNT OF RETROGRESSION OF
THE WRN ATLC UPPER RIDGE BACK TOWARD THE NEW ENG COAST. DESPITE A
GREATER POTENTIAL OF MSLY AFTN/EVE SHWRS/TSTMS...PRTL SUNSHINE IN THE
MORN SHOULD RESULT IN NEAR SEASONAL HI TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION ON
BOTH DAYS. LONGER RANGE MODELS THEN DISAGREE FOR MON...WITH THE
GFS SHOWING DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS AND THE ECMWF SHOWING
ANOTHER S/WV ARRIVING FROM THE W LATE IN THE DAY. BLENDED MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS POPS FOR SCT AFTN SHWRS/TSTMS MON AFTN ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION...WHICH IS WHAT WE SETTLED ON FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MAINLY IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY THIS
MORNING DUE TO LOW CEILINGS AND FOG. OCCASIONAL MVFR POSSIBLE.
CONDITIONS WILL RAPIDLY IMPROVE LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE USHERS DRIER AIR INTO THE
REGION. VFR EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS BY 18Z.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: MSLY VFR ALL TAF SITES...XCPT LCLY MVFR/IFR IN
LATE NIGHT PATCHY FOG WED NGT AND THU NGT AND IN ANY TSTM/HEAVIER SHWR
OVR NRN TAF SITES THU AFTN/ERLY EVE.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SEAS HAVE FINALLY STARTED BUILDING TO AROUND 5 FEET
THIS MORNING, AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. WAVES
OF 4 TO 6 FEET ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT.


SHORT TO LONG TERM: NO HDLNS ANTICIPATED FOR THIS PTN OF THE
FCST...WITH WV HTS XPCTD TO CONT TO SUBSIDE FROM THE NEAR TERM.
WENT WITH ABOUT 75 PERCENT OF THE WV HTS FROM WW3 WV GUIDANCE FOR
THIS PD.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 AM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT







000
FXUS61 KCAR 291400
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1000 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE REGION TODAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL THEN SLOWLY BUILD TOWARD THE REGION TONIGHT
THEN MOVE EAST ON WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE FROM THE
GREAT LAKES WILL APPROACH ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
947 PM UPDATE...ADJUSTED THE POPS TO MATCH THE LATEST RADAR
TRENDS WHICH MEANS A DECREASE IN SHOWERS AS WE MOVE INTO THE
AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL HANG ON INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER
TROF SWINGS ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WERE ADJUSTED TO BRING
THE TEMPERATURES DOWN A FEW DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS THINKING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH TO OUR EAST BY THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH DRIER AIR SPILLING IN BEHIND IT, EFFECTIVELY
BRINGING THE RAIN CHANCES TO AN END FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NEAR
TERM PERIOD. SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL.
HIGHS TODAY WILL GENERALLY TOP OUT IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

FOR TONIGHT...BRIEF RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO NEW ENGLAND. CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S
AREA WIDE, WHILE THE USUAL COLD SPOTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MAINE WOODS
WILL SEE LOWS IN THE 40S. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM
ANTECEDENT RAINS WILL RESULT IN FOG DEVELOPMENT AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODELS CONT TO INDICATE DEEPER TROP MOISTURE TO REMAIN WELL E OF
THE FA THRU THIS PTN OF THE FCST. INSTEAD...S/WVS ROTATING ARND
AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG MID LVL VORTEX OVR E-CNTRL CAN WILL AFFECT
MSLY WRN/NRN PTNS OF THE FA. THE FIRST...WEAK S/WV WILL BRING
ISOLD TO SCT SHWRS AND TSTMS WED AFTN OVR THESE PTNS OF THE FA.

AFT A BREAK LATER WED NGT INTO THU MORN...WHICH WILL FEATURE
PATCHY FOG YIELDING TO PRTL SUNSHINE...A SECOND STRONGER S/WV APCH
FROM THE WSW WILL BRING A BETTER CHC OF AFTN/EVE SHWRS AND TSTMS
THU AFTN INTO ERLY EVE...AGAIN MSLY ACROSS THE W AND N...BUT
POSSIBLY REACHING FURTHER S THAN WED...PERHAPS INTO E CNTRL PTNS
OF THE FA. ANY REMAINING SHWRS/TSTMS SHOULD DISSIPATE LATE THU NGT
WITH MORE PATCHY LATE NGT FOG.

FRI LOOKS TO BE PTLY SUNNY AND SOMEWHAT DRIER BEHIND THE SECOND
S/WV. TEMPS WILL CONT WITH NEAR NORMAL OVRNGT LOWS AND AT OR JUST
ABV NORMAL AFTN HI TEMPS THRU THE SHORT TERM.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LATEST 00Z OPNL ECMWF MODEL RUN NOW SEEMS TO BE IN BE BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THE 00Z GFS IN BRINGING MORE MOISTURE FROM THE WRN
ATLC NWRD INTO THE FA BEGINNING LATE FRI NGT AND INTO SAT AND SUN.
THIS HAS RESULTED IN MORE IN THE WAY OF POPS FOR OUR FA COMPARED
TO WHAT WE INTRODUCED YSTDY...SPCLY FOR SAT AND SUN AFTN/EVE WHERE
DIURNAL HTG/LLVL INSTABILITY WILL AID IN SCT SHWRS AND TSTMS. BETTER
AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE LONGER RANGE MODELS IS LIKELY RELATED THE
ECMWF MODEL SOLUTION BACKING OFF ON THE AMOUNT OF RETROGRESSION OF
THE WRN ATLC UPPER RIDGE BACK TOWARD THE NEW ENG COAST. DESPITE A
GREATER POTENTIAL OF MSLY AFTN/EVE SHWRS/TSTMS...PRTL SUNSHINE IN THE
MORN SHOULD RESULT IN NEAR SEASONAL HI TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION ON
BOTH DAYS. LONGER RANGE MODELS THEN DISAGREE FOR MON...WITH THE
GFS SHOWING DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS AND THE ECMWF SHOWING
ANOTHER S/WV ARRIVING FROM THE W LATE IN THE DAY. BLENDED MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS POPS FOR SCT AFTN SHWRS/TSTMS MON AFTN ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION...WHICH IS WHAT WE SETTLED ON FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MAINLY IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY THIS
MORNING DUE TO LOW CEILINGS AND FOG. OCCASIONAL MVFR POSSIBLE.
CONDITIONS WILL RAPIDLY IMPROVE LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE USHERS DRIER AIR INTO THE
REGION. VFR EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS BY 18Z.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: MSLY VFR ALL TAF SITES...XCPT LCLY MVFR/IFR IN
LATE NIGHT PATCHY FOG WED NGT AND THU NGT AND IN ANY TSTM/HEAVIER SHWR
OVR NRN TAF SITES THU AFTN/ERLY EVE.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SEAS HAVE FINALLY STARTED BUILDING TO AROUND 5 FEET
THIS MORNING, AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. WAVES
OF 4 TO 6 FEET ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT.


SHORT TO LONG TERM: NO HDLNS ANTICIPATED FOR THIS PTN OF THE
FCST...WITH WV HTS XPCTD TO CONT TO SUBSIDE FROM THE NEAR TERM.
WENT WITH ABOUT 75 PERCENT OF THE WV HTS FROM WW3 WV GUIDANCE FOR
THIS PD.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 AM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...HASTINGS/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...HASTINGS/HEWITT/VJN
MARINE...HASTINGS/HEWITT/VJN








000
FXUS61 KGYX 291311
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
911 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND BE
CENTERED OVER THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY. LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO
THE WEEKEND HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST AS A BROAD
UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST SLOWLY APPROACHES AND POSSIBLY FORMS A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...PREVIOUS FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE WILL JUST ADJUST TEMPS,
DEW POINTS AND SKY COVER BASED ON OBSERVATIONS.


PREV DISC:
THE UPPER TROF RAPIDLY LIFTS OUT TO THE NE TODAY ALLOWING HIGH
PRESSURE TO BUILD EAST INTO THE REGION TODAY. SKIES WILL BECOME
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND WED WITH A DRIER
AIR MASS THAT MOVES OVER THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES. A FEW
INSTBLTY SHWRS CAN`T BE RULED OUT ON WED IN THE MTNS DUE TO AN
UPPER TROF THAT VERY SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE W. LOW TEMPS
TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S AND HIGHS WED ONCE
AGAIN IN THE 70S.

USED A BLEND OF THE MODELS FOR MAX/MIN TEMPS FCST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
PERSISTENT UPPER LOW NEAR HUDSONS BAY WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN ITS
WHEELS ON THURSDAY. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL ROTATE AROUND THIS
LOW ON THURSDAY AND MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA. WE/LL HAVE PRETTY COLD
AIR ALOFT FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR IN PLACE AND THE RESULTANT WEAK
INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW LOW-
TOPPED THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY. HAVE HIGHEST POPS /LOW LIKELY/
ACROSS THE INTERIOR WHERE BEST FORCING WILL BE. SOME SMALL HAIL
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

THEREAFTER...THE MAIN QUESTION THEN BECOMES THE CHANCE OF RAIN
OVER THE WEEKEND. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A SOUTHERN
STREAM WAVE ROLLING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY WITH WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS. OTHER DATA ARE NOT AS AGGRESSIVE. HAVE KEPT LOW CHANCE
POPS IN PLACE FOR THE WEEKEND...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR ANY
SOUTHERN STREAM INFLUENCE IN OUR WEATHER. OTHERWISE...DIURNAL
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDS.

LONG TERM...MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY THURSDAY ACROSS THE
INTERIOR...AND POSSIBLE ON THE COAST IN SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS.
THEREAFTER...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND ALTHOUGH WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR A LOW PROBABILITY OF
LOWER CONDITIONS SAT WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS DIMINISH TODAY BUT WILL CONT THE SCA FOR
HAZARDOUS SEAS FOR THE OUTER WATERS AS SEAS REMAIN 4-6 FT. SEAS
WILL SUBSIDE TONIGHT.

LONG TERM...LOW-END SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THU AND THU
NIGHT...OTHERWISE...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ150-152.

&&

$$
TFH






000
FXUS61 KGYX 291101
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
701 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND BE
CENTERED OVER THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY. LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO
THE WEEKEND HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST AS A BROAD
UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST SLOWLY APPROACHES AND POSSIBLY FORMS A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
700 AM UPDATE: TOOK OUT PATCHY EARLY MRNG FOG AND ANY MENTION OF
EARLY MRNG SHWRS IN THE MTNS...OTRW ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO TEMPS
BASED ON LATEST OBS DATA.

PREV DISC:
THE UPPER TROF RAPIDLY LIFTS OUT TO THE NE TODAY ALLOWING HIGH
PRESSURE TO BUILD EAST INTO THE REGION TODAY. SKIES WILL BECOME
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND WED WITH A DRIER
AIR MASS THAT MOVES OVER THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES. A FEW
INSTBLTY SHWRS CAN`T BE RULED OUT ON WED IN THE MTNS DUE TO AN
UPPER TROF THAT VERY SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE W. LOW TEMPS
TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S AND HIGHS WED ONCE
AGAIN IN THE 70S.

USED A BLEND OF THE MODELS FOR MAX/MIN TEMPS FCST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PERSISTENT UPPER LOW NEAR HUDSONS BAY WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN ITS
WHEELS ON THURSDAY. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL ROTATE AROUND THIS
LOW ON THURSDAY AND MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA. WE/LL HAVE PRETTY COLD
AIR ALOFT FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR IN PLACE AND THE RESULTANT WEAK
INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW LOW-
TOPPED THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY. HAVE HIGHEST POPS /LOW LIKELY/
ACROSS THE INTERIOR WHERE BEST FORCING WILL BE. SOME SMALL HAIL
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

THEREAFTER...THE MAIN QUESTION THEN BECOMES THE CHANCE OF RAIN
OVER THE WEEKEND. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A SOUTHERN
STREAM WAVE ROLLING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY WITH WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS. OTHER DATA ARE NOT AS AGGRESSIVE. HAVE KEPT LOW CHANCE
POPS IN PLACE FOR THE WEEKEND...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR ANY
SOUTHERN STREAM INFLUENCE IN OUR WEATHER. OTHERWISE...DIURNAL
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDS.

LONG TERM...MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY THURSDAY ACROSS THE
INTERIOR...AND POSSIBLE ON THE COAST IN SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS.
THEREAFTER...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND ALTHOUGH WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR A LOW PROBABILITY OF
LOWER CONDITIONS SAT WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS DIMINISH TODAY BUT WILL CONT THE SCA FOR
HAZARDOUS SEAS FOR THE OUTER WATERS AS SEAS REMAIN 4-6 FT. SEAS
WILL SUBSIDE TONIGHT.

LONG TERM...LOW-END SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THU AND THU
NIGHT...OTHERWISE...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ150-152.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KGYX 291101
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
701 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND BE
CENTERED OVER THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY. LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO
THE WEEKEND HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST AS A BROAD
UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST SLOWLY APPROACHES AND POSSIBLY FORMS A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
700 AM UPDATE: TOOK OUT PATCHY EARLY MRNG FOG AND ANY MENTION OF
EARLY MRNG SHWRS IN THE MTNS...OTRW ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO TEMPS
BASED ON LATEST OBS DATA.

PREV DISC:
THE UPPER TROF RAPIDLY LIFTS OUT TO THE NE TODAY ALLOWING HIGH
PRESSURE TO BUILD EAST INTO THE REGION TODAY. SKIES WILL BECOME
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND WED WITH A DRIER
AIR MASS THAT MOVES OVER THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES. A FEW
INSTBLTY SHWRS CAN`T BE RULED OUT ON WED IN THE MTNS DUE TO AN
UPPER TROF THAT VERY SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE W. LOW TEMPS
TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S AND HIGHS WED ONCE
AGAIN IN THE 70S.

USED A BLEND OF THE MODELS FOR MAX/MIN TEMPS FCST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PERSISTENT UPPER LOW NEAR HUDSONS BAY WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN ITS
WHEELS ON THURSDAY. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL ROTATE AROUND THIS
LOW ON THURSDAY AND MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA. WE/LL HAVE PRETTY COLD
AIR ALOFT FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR IN PLACE AND THE RESULTANT WEAK
INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW LOW-
TOPPED THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY. HAVE HIGHEST POPS /LOW LIKELY/
ACROSS THE INTERIOR WHERE BEST FORCING WILL BE. SOME SMALL HAIL
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

THEREAFTER...THE MAIN QUESTION THEN BECOMES THE CHANCE OF RAIN
OVER THE WEEKEND. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A SOUTHERN
STREAM WAVE ROLLING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY WITH WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS. OTHER DATA ARE NOT AS AGGRESSIVE. HAVE KEPT LOW CHANCE
POPS IN PLACE FOR THE WEEKEND...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR ANY
SOUTHERN STREAM INFLUENCE IN OUR WEATHER. OTHERWISE...DIURNAL
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDS.

LONG TERM...MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY THURSDAY ACROSS THE
INTERIOR...AND POSSIBLE ON THE COAST IN SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS.
THEREAFTER...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND ALTHOUGH WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR A LOW PROBABILITY OF
LOWER CONDITIONS SAT WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS DIMINISH TODAY BUT WILL CONT THE SCA FOR
HAZARDOUS SEAS FOR THE OUTER WATERS AS SEAS REMAIN 4-6 FT. SEAS
WILL SUBSIDE TONIGHT.

LONG TERM...LOW-END SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THU AND THU
NIGHT...OTHERWISE...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ150-152.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KGYX 291101
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
701 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND BE
CENTERED OVER THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY. LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO
THE WEEKEND HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST AS A BROAD
UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST SLOWLY APPROACHES AND POSSIBLY FORMS A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
700 AM UPDATE: TOOK OUT PATCHY EARLY MRNG FOG AND ANY MENTION OF
EARLY MRNG SHWRS IN THE MTNS...OTRW ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO TEMPS
BASED ON LATEST OBS DATA.

PREV DISC:
THE UPPER TROF RAPIDLY LIFTS OUT TO THE NE TODAY ALLOWING HIGH
PRESSURE TO BUILD EAST INTO THE REGION TODAY. SKIES WILL BECOME
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND WED WITH A DRIER
AIR MASS THAT MOVES OVER THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES. A FEW
INSTBLTY SHWRS CAN`T BE RULED OUT ON WED IN THE MTNS DUE TO AN
UPPER TROF THAT VERY SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE W. LOW TEMPS
TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S AND HIGHS WED ONCE
AGAIN IN THE 70S.

USED A BLEND OF THE MODELS FOR MAX/MIN TEMPS FCST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PERSISTENT UPPER LOW NEAR HUDSONS BAY WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN ITS
WHEELS ON THURSDAY. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL ROTATE AROUND THIS
LOW ON THURSDAY AND MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA. WE/LL HAVE PRETTY COLD
AIR ALOFT FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR IN PLACE AND THE RESULTANT WEAK
INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW LOW-
TOPPED THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY. HAVE HIGHEST POPS /LOW LIKELY/
ACROSS THE INTERIOR WHERE BEST FORCING WILL BE. SOME SMALL HAIL
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

THEREAFTER...THE MAIN QUESTION THEN BECOMES THE CHANCE OF RAIN
OVER THE WEEKEND. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A SOUTHERN
STREAM WAVE ROLLING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY WITH WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS. OTHER DATA ARE NOT AS AGGRESSIVE. HAVE KEPT LOW CHANCE
POPS IN PLACE FOR THE WEEKEND...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR ANY
SOUTHERN STREAM INFLUENCE IN OUR WEATHER. OTHERWISE...DIURNAL
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDS.

LONG TERM...MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY THURSDAY ACROSS THE
INTERIOR...AND POSSIBLE ON THE COAST IN SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS.
THEREAFTER...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND ALTHOUGH WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR A LOW PROBABILITY OF
LOWER CONDITIONS SAT WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS DIMINISH TODAY BUT WILL CONT THE SCA FOR
HAZARDOUS SEAS FOR THE OUTER WATERS AS SEAS REMAIN 4-6 FT. SEAS
WILL SUBSIDE TONIGHT.

LONG TERM...LOW-END SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THU AND THU
NIGHT...OTHERWISE...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ150-152.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KGYX 291101
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
701 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND BE
CENTERED OVER THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY. LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO
THE WEEKEND HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST AS A BROAD
UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST SLOWLY APPROACHES AND POSSIBLY FORMS A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
700 AM UPDATE: TOOK OUT PATCHY EARLY MRNG FOG AND ANY MENTION OF
EARLY MRNG SHWRS IN THE MTNS...OTRW ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO TEMPS
BASED ON LATEST OBS DATA.

PREV DISC:
THE UPPER TROF RAPIDLY LIFTS OUT TO THE NE TODAY ALLOWING HIGH
PRESSURE TO BUILD EAST INTO THE REGION TODAY. SKIES WILL BECOME
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND WED WITH A DRIER
AIR MASS THAT MOVES OVER THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES. A FEW
INSTBLTY SHWRS CAN`T BE RULED OUT ON WED IN THE MTNS DUE TO AN
UPPER TROF THAT VERY SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE W. LOW TEMPS
TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S AND HIGHS WED ONCE
AGAIN IN THE 70S.

USED A BLEND OF THE MODELS FOR MAX/MIN TEMPS FCST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PERSISTENT UPPER LOW NEAR HUDSONS BAY WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN ITS
WHEELS ON THURSDAY. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL ROTATE AROUND THIS
LOW ON THURSDAY AND MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA. WE/LL HAVE PRETTY COLD
AIR ALOFT FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR IN PLACE AND THE RESULTANT WEAK
INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW LOW-
TOPPED THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY. HAVE HIGHEST POPS /LOW LIKELY/
ACROSS THE INTERIOR WHERE BEST FORCING WILL BE. SOME SMALL HAIL
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

THEREAFTER...THE MAIN QUESTION THEN BECOMES THE CHANCE OF RAIN
OVER THE WEEKEND. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A SOUTHERN
STREAM WAVE ROLLING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY WITH WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS. OTHER DATA ARE NOT AS AGGRESSIVE. HAVE KEPT LOW CHANCE
POPS IN PLACE FOR THE WEEKEND...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR ANY
SOUTHERN STREAM INFLUENCE IN OUR WEATHER. OTHERWISE...DIURNAL
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDS.

LONG TERM...MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY THURSDAY ACROSS THE
INTERIOR...AND POSSIBLE ON THE COAST IN SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS.
THEREAFTER...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND ALTHOUGH WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR A LOW PROBABILITY OF
LOWER CONDITIONS SAT WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS DIMINISH TODAY BUT WILL CONT THE SCA FOR
HAZARDOUS SEAS FOR THE OUTER WATERS AS SEAS REMAIN 4-6 FT. SEAS
WILL SUBSIDE TONIGHT.

LONG TERM...LOW-END SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THU AND THU
NIGHT...OTHERWISE...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ150-152.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KCAR 290945
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
545 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE REGION TODAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL THEN SLOWLY BUILD TOWARD THE REGION TONIGHT
THEN MOVE EAST ON WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE FROM THE
GREAT LAKES WILL APPROACH ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
540 AM UPDATE...A NORTH/SOUTH ORIENTED COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY
CROSSING THE REGION, STRETCHING FROM ABOUT ALLAGASH DOWN THROUGH
GREENVILLE. THERE`S STILL A SMALL BATCH OF SHOWERS OVER
NORTHEASTERN MAINE OUT AHEAD OF THIS FRONT, BUT THIS WILL QUICKLY
EXIT INTO NEW BRUNSWICK THIS MORNING. THIS SHOULD GENERALLY BE IT
FOR RAIN TODAY, WITH PERHAPS JUST ANOTHER SHOWER OR TWO OVER THE
FAR NORTH THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. HAVE UPDATED SKY COVER, POPS
AND WEATHER TO MATCH CURRENT TRENDS. NO OTHER CHANGES ARE NEEDED.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LOW PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY TRAVERSING ACROSS
NORTHERN MAINE EARLY THIS MORNING, WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING
ALONG BEHIND. THE WORST OF THE RAIN HAS EXITED INTO CANADA, AND
JUST EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND
WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. THE
FRONT WILL PUSH TO OUR EAST BY THIS AFTERNOON, WITH DRIER AIR
SPILLING IN BEHIND IT, EFFECTIVELY BRINGING THE RAIN CHANCES TO AN
END FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NEAR TERM PERIOD. SKIES WILL BEGIN TO
CLEAR OUT THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL. HIGHS TODAY WILL GENERALLY TOP
OUT IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

FOR TONIGHT...BRIEF RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO NEW ENGLAND. CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S
AREA WIDE, WHILE THE USUAL COLD SPOTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MAINE WOODS
WILL SEE LOWS IN THE 40S. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM
ANTECEDENT RAINS WILL RESULT IN FOG DEVELOPMENT AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODELS CONT TO INDICATE DEEPER TROP MOISTURE TO REMAIN WELL E OF
THE FA THRU THIS PTN OF THE FCST. INSTEAD...S/WVS ROTATING ARND
AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG MID LVL VORTEX OVR E-CNTRL CAN WILL AFFECT
MSLY WRN/NRN PTNS OF THE FA. THE FIRST...WEAK S/WV WILL BRING
ISOLD TO SCT SHWRS AND TSTMS WED AFTN OVR THESE PTNS OF THE FA.

AFT A BREAK LATER WED NGT INTO THU MORN...WHICH WILL FEATURE
PATCHY FOG YIELDING TO PRTL SUNSHINE...A SECOND STRONGER S/WV APCH
FROM THE WSW WILL BRING A BETTER CHC OF AFTN/EVE SHWRS AND TSTMS
THU AFTN INTO ERLY EVE...AGAIN MSLY ACROSS THE W AND N...BUT
POSSIBLY REACHING FURTHER S THAN WED...PERHAPS INTO E CNTRL PTNS
OF THE FA. ANY REMAINING SHWRS/TSTMS SHOULD DISSIPATE LATE THU NGT
WITH MORE PATCHY LATE NGT FOG.

FRI LOOKS TO BE PTLY SUNNY AND SOMEWHAT DRIER BEHIND THE SECOND
S/WV. TEMPS WILL CONT WITH NEAR NORMAL OVRNGT LOWS AND AT OR JUST
ABV NORMAL AFTN HI TEMPS THRU THE SHORT TERM.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LATEST 00Z OPNL ECMWF MODEL RUN NOW SEEMS TO BE IN BE BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THE 00Z GFS IN BRINGING MORE MOISTURE FROM THE WRN
ATLC NWRD INTO THE FA BEGINNING LATE FRI NGT AND INTO SAT AND SUN.
THIS HAS RESULTED IN MORE IN THE WAY OF POPS FOR OUR FA COMPARED
TO WHAT WE INTRODUCED YSTDY...SPCLY FOR SAT AND SUN AFTN/EVE WHERE
DIURNAL HTG/LLVL INSTABILITY WILL AID IN SCT SHWRS AND TSTMS. BETTER
AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE LONGER RANGE MODELS IS LIKELY RELATED THE
ECMWF MODEL SOLUTION BACKING OFF ON THE AMOUNT OF RETROGRESSION OF
THE WRN ATLC UPPER RIDGE BACK TOWARD THE NEW ENG COAST. DESPITE A
GREATER POTENTIAL OF MSLY AFTN/EVE SHWRS/TSTMS...PRTL SUNSHINE IN THE
MORN SHOULD RESULT IN NEAR SEASONAL HI TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION ON
BOTH DAYS. LONGER RANGE MODELS THEN DISAGREE FOR MON...WITH THE
GFS SHOWING DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS AND THE ECMWF SHOWING
ANOTHER S/WV ARRIVING FROM THE W LATE IN THE DAY. BLENDED MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS POPS FOR SCT AFTN SHWRS/TSTMS MON AFTN ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION...WHICH IS WHAT WE SETTLED ON FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MAINLY IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY THIS
MORNING DUE TO LOW CEILINGS AND FOG. OCCASIONAL MVFR POSSIBLE.
CONDITIONS WILL RAPIDLY IMPROVE LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE USHERS DRIER AIR INTO THE
REGION. VFR EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS BY 18Z.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: MSLY VFR ALL TAF SITES...XCPT LCLY MVFR/IFR IN
LATE NIGHT PATCHY FOG WED NGT AND THU NGT AND IN ANY TSTM/HEAVIER SHWR
OVR NRN TAF SITES THU AFTN/ERLY EVE.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SEAS HAVE FINALLY STARTED BUILDING TO AROUND 5 FEET
THIS MORNING, AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. WAVES
OF 4 TO 6 FEET ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT.


SHORT TO LONG TERM: NO HDLNS ANTICIPATED FOR THIS PTN OF THE
FCST...WITH WV HTS XPCTD TO CONT TO SUBSIDE FROM THE NEAR TERM.
WENT WITH ABOUT 75 PERCENT OF THE WV HTS FROM WW3 WV GUIDANCE FOR
THIS PD.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 AM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...HASTINGS
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...HASTINGS/VJN
MARINE...HASTINGS/VJN
CLIMATE...









000
FXUS61 KCAR 290945
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
545 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE REGION TODAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL THEN SLOWLY BUILD TOWARD THE REGION TONIGHT
THEN MOVE EAST ON WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE FROM THE
GREAT LAKES WILL APPROACH ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
540 AM UPDATE...A NORTH/SOUTH ORIENTED COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY
CROSSING THE REGION, STRETCHING FROM ABOUT ALLAGASH DOWN THROUGH
GREENVILLE. THERE`S STILL A SMALL BATCH OF SHOWERS OVER
NORTHEASTERN MAINE OUT AHEAD OF THIS FRONT, BUT THIS WILL QUICKLY
EXIT INTO NEW BRUNSWICK THIS MORNING. THIS SHOULD GENERALLY BE IT
FOR RAIN TODAY, WITH PERHAPS JUST ANOTHER SHOWER OR TWO OVER THE
FAR NORTH THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. HAVE UPDATED SKY COVER, POPS
AND WEATHER TO MATCH CURRENT TRENDS. NO OTHER CHANGES ARE NEEDED.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LOW PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY TRAVERSING ACROSS
NORTHERN MAINE EARLY THIS MORNING, WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING
ALONG BEHIND. THE WORST OF THE RAIN HAS EXITED INTO CANADA, AND
JUST EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND
WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. THE
FRONT WILL PUSH TO OUR EAST BY THIS AFTERNOON, WITH DRIER AIR
SPILLING IN BEHIND IT, EFFECTIVELY BRINGING THE RAIN CHANCES TO AN
END FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NEAR TERM PERIOD. SKIES WILL BEGIN TO
CLEAR OUT THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL. HIGHS TODAY WILL GENERALLY TOP
OUT IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

FOR TONIGHT...BRIEF RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO NEW ENGLAND. CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S
AREA WIDE, WHILE THE USUAL COLD SPOTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MAINE WOODS
WILL SEE LOWS IN THE 40S. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM
ANTECEDENT RAINS WILL RESULT IN FOG DEVELOPMENT AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODELS CONT TO INDICATE DEEPER TROP MOISTURE TO REMAIN WELL E OF
THE FA THRU THIS PTN OF THE FCST. INSTEAD...S/WVS ROTATING ARND
AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG MID LVL VORTEX OVR E-CNTRL CAN WILL AFFECT
MSLY WRN/NRN PTNS OF THE FA. THE FIRST...WEAK S/WV WILL BRING
ISOLD TO SCT SHWRS AND TSTMS WED AFTN OVR THESE PTNS OF THE FA.

AFT A BREAK LATER WED NGT INTO THU MORN...WHICH WILL FEATURE
PATCHY FOG YIELDING TO PRTL SUNSHINE...A SECOND STRONGER S/WV APCH
FROM THE WSW WILL BRING A BETTER CHC OF AFTN/EVE SHWRS AND TSTMS
THU AFTN INTO ERLY EVE...AGAIN MSLY ACROSS THE W AND N...BUT
POSSIBLY REACHING FURTHER S THAN WED...PERHAPS INTO E CNTRL PTNS
OF THE FA. ANY REMAINING SHWRS/TSTMS SHOULD DISSIPATE LATE THU NGT
WITH MORE PATCHY LATE NGT FOG.

FRI LOOKS TO BE PTLY SUNNY AND SOMEWHAT DRIER BEHIND THE SECOND
S/WV. TEMPS WILL CONT WITH NEAR NORMAL OVRNGT LOWS AND AT OR JUST
ABV NORMAL AFTN HI TEMPS THRU THE SHORT TERM.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LATEST 00Z OPNL ECMWF MODEL RUN NOW SEEMS TO BE IN BE BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THE 00Z GFS IN BRINGING MORE MOISTURE FROM THE WRN
ATLC NWRD INTO THE FA BEGINNING LATE FRI NGT AND INTO SAT AND SUN.
THIS HAS RESULTED IN MORE IN THE WAY OF POPS FOR OUR FA COMPARED
TO WHAT WE INTRODUCED YSTDY...SPCLY FOR SAT AND SUN AFTN/EVE WHERE
DIURNAL HTG/LLVL INSTABILITY WILL AID IN SCT SHWRS AND TSTMS. BETTER
AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE LONGER RANGE MODELS IS LIKELY RELATED THE
ECMWF MODEL SOLUTION BACKING OFF ON THE AMOUNT OF RETROGRESSION OF
THE WRN ATLC UPPER RIDGE BACK TOWARD THE NEW ENG COAST. DESPITE A
GREATER POTENTIAL OF MSLY AFTN/EVE SHWRS/TSTMS...PRTL SUNSHINE IN THE
MORN SHOULD RESULT IN NEAR SEASONAL HI TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION ON
BOTH DAYS. LONGER RANGE MODELS THEN DISAGREE FOR MON...WITH THE
GFS SHOWING DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS AND THE ECMWF SHOWING
ANOTHER S/WV ARRIVING FROM THE W LATE IN THE DAY. BLENDED MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS POPS FOR SCT AFTN SHWRS/TSTMS MON AFTN ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION...WHICH IS WHAT WE SETTLED ON FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MAINLY IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY THIS
MORNING DUE TO LOW CEILINGS AND FOG. OCCASIONAL MVFR POSSIBLE.
CONDITIONS WILL RAPIDLY IMPROVE LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE USHERS DRIER AIR INTO THE
REGION. VFR EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS BY 18Z.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: MSLY VFR ALL TAF SITES...XCPT LCLY MVFR/IFR IN
LATE NIGHT PATCHY FOG WED NGT AND THU NGT AND IN ANY TSTM/HEAVIER SHWR
OVR NRN TAF SITES THU AFTN/ERLY EVE.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SEAS HAVE FINALLY STARTED BUILDING TO AROUND 5 FEET
THIS MORNING, AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. WAVES
OF 4 TO 6 FEET ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT.


SHORT TO LONG TERM: NO HDLNS ANTICIPATED FOR THIS PTN OF THE
FCST...WITH WV HTS XPCTD TO CONT TO SUBSIDE FROM THE NEAR TERM.
WENT WITH ABOUT 75 PERCENT OF THE WV HTS FROM WW3 WV GUIDANCE FOR
THIS PD.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 AM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...HASTINGS
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...HASTINGS/VJN
MARINE...HASTINGS/VJN
CLIMATE...









000
FXUS61 KCAR 290945
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
545 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE REGION TODAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL THEN SLOWLY BUILD TOWARD THE REGION TONIGHT
THEN MOVE EAST ON WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE FROM THE
GREAT LAKES WILL APPROACH ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
540 AM UPDATE...A NORTH/SOUTH ORIENTED COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY
CROSSING THE REGION, STRETCHING FROM ABOUT ALLAGASH DOWN THROUGH
GREENVILLE. THERE`S STILL A SMALL BATCH OF SHOWERS OVER
NORTHEASTERN MAINE OUT AHEAD OF THIS FRONT, BUT THIS WILL QUICKLY
EXIT INTO NEW BRUNSWICK THIS MORNING. THIS SHOULD GENERALLY BE IT
FOR RAIN TODAY, WITH PERHAPS JUST ANOTHER SHOWER OR TWO OVER THE
FAR NORTH THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. HAVE UPDATED SKY COVER, POPS
AND WEATHER TO MATCH CURRENT TRENDS. NO OTHER CHANGES ARE NEEDED.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LOW PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY TRAVERSING ACROSS
NORTHERN MAINE EARLY THIS MORNING, WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING
ALONG BEHIND. THE WORST OF THE RAIN HAS EXITED INTO CANADA, AND
JUST EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND
WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. THE
FRONT WILL PUSH TO OUR EAST BY THIS AFTERNOON, WITH DRIER AIR
SPILLING IN BEHIND IT, EFFECTIVELY BRINGING THE RAIN CHANCES TO AN
END FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NEAR TERM PERIOD. SKIES WILL BEGIN TO
CLEAR OUT THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL. HIGHS TODAY WILL GENERALLY TOP
OUT IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

FOR TONIGHT...BRIEF RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO NEW ENGLAND. CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S
AREA WIDE, WHILE THE USUAL COLD SPOTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MAINE WOODS
WILL SEE LOWS IN THE 40S. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM
ANTECEDENT RAINS WILL RESULT IN FOG DEVELOPMENT AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODELS CONT TO INDICATE DEEPER TROP MOISTURE TO REMAIN WELL E OF
THE FA THRU THIS PTN OF THE FCST. INSTEAD...S/WVS ROTATING ARND
AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG MID LVL VORTEX OVR E-CNTRL CAN WILL AFFECT
MSLY WRN/NRN PTNS OF THE FA. THE FIRST...WEAK S/WV WILL BRING
ISOLD TO SCT SHWRS AND TSTMS WED AFTN OVR THESE PTNS OF THE FA.

AFT A BREAK LATER WED NGT INTO THU MORN...WHICH WILL FEATURE
PATCHY FOG YIELDING TO PRTL SUNSHINE...A SECOND STRONGER S/WV APCH
FROM THE WSW WILL BRING A BETTER CHC OF AFTN/EVE SHWRS AND TSTMS
THU AFTN INTO ERLY EVE...AGAIN MSLY ACROSS THE W AND N...BUT
POSSIBLY REACHING FURTHER S THAN WED...PERHAPS INTO E CNTRL PTNS
OF THE FA. ANY REMAINING SHWRS/TSTMS SHOULD DISSIPATE LATE THU NGT
WITH MORE PATCHY LATE NGT FOG.

FRI LOOKS TO BE PTLY SUNNY AND SOMEWHAT DRIER BEHIND THE SECOND
S/WV. TEMPS WILL CONT WITH NEAR NORMAL OVRNGT LOWS AND AT OR JUST
ABV NORMAL AFTN HI TEMPS THRU THE SHORT TERM.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LATEST 00Z OPNL ECMWF MODEL RUN NOW SEEMS TO BE IN BE BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THE 00Z GFS IN BRINGING MORE MOISTURE FROM THE WRN
ATLC NWRD INTO THE FA BEGINNING LATE FRI NGT AND INTO SAT AND SUN.
THIS HAS RESULTED IN MORE IN THE WAY OF POPS FOR OUR FA COMPARED
TO WHAT WE INTRODUCED YSTDY...SPCLY FOR SAT AND SUN AFTN/EVE WHERE
DIURNAL HTG/LLVL INSTABILITY WILL AID IN SCT SHWRS AND TSTMS. BETTER
AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE LONGER RANGE MODELS IS LIKELY RELATED THE
ECMWF MODEL SOLUTION BACKING OFF ON THE AMOUNT OF RETROGRESSION OF
THE WRN ATLC UPPER RIDGE BACK TOWARD THE NEW ENG COAST. DESPITE A
GREATER POTENTIAL OF MSLY AFTN/EVE SHWRS/TSTMS...PRTL SUNSHINE IN THE
MORN SHOULD RESULT IN NEAR SEASONAL HI TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION ON
BOTH DAYS. LONGER RANGE MODELS THEN DISAGREE FOR MON...WITH THE
GFS SHOWING DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS AND THE ECMWF SHOWING
ANOTHER S/WV ARRIVING FROM THE W LATE IN THE DAY. BLENDED MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS POPS FOR SCT AFTN SHWRS/TSTMS MON AFTN ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION...WHICH IS WHAT WE SETTLED ON FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MAINLY IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY THIS
MORNING DUE TO LOW CEILINGS AND FOG. OCCASIONAL MVFR POSSIBLE.
CONDITIONS WILL RAPIDLY IMPROVE LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE USHERS DRIER AIR INTO THE
REGION. VFR EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS BY 18Z.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: MSLY VFR ALL TAF SITES...XCPT LCLY MVFR/IFR IN
LATE NIGHT PATCHY FOG WED NGT AND THU NGT AND IN ANY TSTM/HEAVIER SHWR
OVR NRN TAF SITES THU AFTN/ERLY EVE.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SEAS HAVE FINALLY STARTED BUILDING TO AROUND 5 FEET
THIS MORNING, AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. WAVES
OF 4 TO 6 FEET ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT.


SHORT TO LONG TERM: NO HDLNS ANTICIPATED FOR THIS PTN OF THE
FCST...WITH WV HTS XPCTD TO CONT TO SUBSIDE FROM THE NEAR TERM.
WENT WITH ABOUT 75 PERCENT OF THE WV HTS FROM WW3 WV GUIDANCE FOR
THIS PD.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 AM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...HASTINGS
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...HASTINGS/VJN
MARINE...HASTINGS/VJN
CLIMATE...









000
FXUS61 KCAR 290945
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
545 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE REGION TODAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL THEN SLOWLY BUILD TOWARD THE REGION TONIGHT
THEN MOVE EAST ON WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE FROM THE
GREAT LAKES WILL APPROACH ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
540 AM UPDATE...A NORTH/SOUTH ORIENTED COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY
CROSSING THE REGION, STRETCHING FROM ABOUT ALLAGASH DOWN THROUGH
GREENVILLE. THERE`S STILL A SMALL BATCH OF SHOWERS OVER
NORTHEASTERN MAINE OUT AHEAD OF THIS FRONT, BUT THIS WILL QUICKLY
EXIT INTO NEW BRUNSWICK THIS MORNING. THIS SHOULD GENERALLY BE IT
FOR RAIN TODAY, WITH PERHAPS JUST ANOTHER SHOWER OR TWO OVER THE
FAR NORTH THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. HAVE UPDATED SKY COVER, POPS
AND WEATHER TO MATCH CURRENT TRENDS. NO OTHER CHANGES ARE NEEDED.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LOW PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY TRAVERSING ACROSS
NORTHERN MAINE EARLY THIS MORNING, WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING
ALONG BEHIND. THE WORST OF THE RAIN HAS EXITED INTO CANADA, AND
JUST EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND
WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. THE
FRONT WILL PUSH TO OUR EAST BY THIS AFTERNOON, WITH DRIER AIR
SPILLING IN BEHIND IT, EFFECTIVELY BRINGING THE RAIN CHANCES TO AN
END FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NEAR TERM PERIOD. SKIES WILL BEGIN TO
CLEAR OUT THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL. HIGHS TODAY WILL GENERALLY TOP
OUT IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

FOR TONIGHT...BRIEF RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO NEW ENGLAND. CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S
AREA WIDE, WHILE THE USUAL COLD SPOTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MAINE WOODS
WILL SEE LOWS IN THE 40S. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM
ANTECEDENT RAINS WILL RESULT IN FOG DEVELOPMENT AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODELS CONT TO INDICATE DEEPER TROP MOISTURE TO REMAIN WELL E OF
THE FA THRU THIS PTN OF THE FCST. INSTEAD...S/WVS ROTATING ARND
AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG MID LVL VORTEX OVR E-CNTRL CAN WILL AFFECT
MSLY WRN/NRN PTNS OF THE FA. THE FIRST...WEAK S/WV WILL BRING
ISOLD TO SCT SHWRS AND TSTMS WED AFTN OVR THESE PTNS OF THE FA.

AFT A BREAK LATER WED NGT INTO THU MORN...WHICH WILL FEATURE
PATCHY FOG YIELDING TO PRTL SUNSHINE...A SECOND STRONGER S/WV APCH
FROM THE WSW WILL BRING A BETTER CHC OF AFTN/EVE SHWRS AND TSTMS
THU AFTN INTO ERLY EVE...AGAIN MSLY ACROSS THE W AND N...BUT
POSSIBLY REACHING FURTHER S THAN WED...PERHAPS INTO E CNTRL PTNS
OF THE FA. ANY REMAINING SHWRS/TSTMS SHOULD DISSIPATE LATE THU NGT
WITH MORE PATCHY LATE NGT FOG.

FRI LOOKS TO BE PTLY SUNNY AND SOMEWHAT DRIER BEHIND THE SECOND
S/WV. TEMPS WILL CONT WITH NEAR NORMAL OVRNGT LOWS AND AT OR JUST
ABV NORMAL AFTN HI TEMPS THRU THE SHORT TERM.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LATEST 00Z OPNL ECMWF MODEL RUN NOW SEEMS TO BE IN BE BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THE 00Z GFS IN BRINGING MORE MOISTURE FROM THE WRN
ATLC NWRD INTO THE FA BEGINNING LATE FRI NGT AND INTO SAT AND SUN.
THIS HAS RESULTED IN MORE IN THE WAY OF POPS FOR OUR FA COMPARED
TO WHAT WE INTRODUCED YSTDY...SPCLY FOR SAT AND SUN AFTN/EVE WHERE
DIURNAL HTG/LLVL INSTABILITY WILL AID IN SCT SHWRS AND TSTMS. BETTER
AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE LONGER RANGE MODELS IS LIKELY RELATED THE
ECMWF MODEL SOLUTION BACKING OFF ON THE AMOUNT OF RETROGRESSION OF
THE WRN ATLC UPPER RIDGE BACK TOWARD THE NEW ENG COAST. DESPITE A
GREATER POTENTIAL OF MSLY AFTN/EVE SHWRS/TSTMS...PRTL SUNSHINE IN THE
MORN SHOULD RESULT IN NEAR SEASONAL HI TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION ON
BOTH DAYS. LONGER RANGE MODELS THEN DISAGREE FOR MON...WITH THE
GFS SHOWING DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS AND THE ECMWF SHOWING
ANOTHER S/WV ARRIVING FROM THE W LATE IN THE DAY. BLENDED MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS POPS FOR SCT AFTN SHWRS/TSTMS MON AFTN ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION...WHICH IS WHAT WE SETTLED ON FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MAINLY IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY THIS
MORNING DUE TO LOW CEILINGS AND FOG. OCCASIONAL MVFR POSSIBLE.
CONDITIONS WILL RAPIDLY IMPROVE LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE USHERS DRIER AIR INTO THE
REGION. VFR EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS BY 18Z.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: MSLY VFR ALL TAF SITES...XCPT LCLY MVFR/IFR IN
LATE NIGHT PATCHY FOG WED NGT AND THU NGT AND IN ANY TSTM/HEAVIER SHWR
OVR NRN TAF SITES THU AFTN/ERLY EVE.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SEAS HAVE FINALLY STARTED BUILDING TO AROUND 5 FEET
THIS MORNING, AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. WAVES
OF 4 TO 6 FEET ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT.


SHORT TO LONG TERM: NO HDLNS ANTICIPATED FOR THIS PTN OF THE
FCST...WITH WV HTS XPCTD TO CONT TO SUBSIDE FROM THE NEAR TERM.
WENT WITH ABOUT 75 PERCENT OF THE WV HTS FROM WW3 WV GUIDANCE FOR
THIS PD.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 AM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...HASTINGS
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...HASTINGS/VJN
MARINE...HASTINGS/VJN
CLIMATE...









000
FXUS61 KGYX 290745
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
345 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND BE
CENTERED OVER THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY. LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO
THE WEEKEND HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST AS A BROAD
UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST SLOWLY APPROACHES AND POSSIBLY FORMS A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE UPPER TROF RAPIDLY LIFTS OUT TO THE NE TODAY ALLOWING HIGH
PRESSURE TO BUILD EAST INTO THE REGION TODAY. SKIES WILL BECOME
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND WED WITH A DRIER
AIR MASS THAT MOVES OVER THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES. A FEW
INSTBLTY SHWRS CAN`T BE RULED OUT ON WED IN THE MTNS DUE TO AN
UPPER TROF THAT VERY SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE W. LOW TEMPS
TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S AND HIGHS WED ONCE
AGAIN IN THE 70S.

USED A BLEND OF THE MODELS FOR MAX/MIN TEMPS FCST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
PERSISTENT UPPER LOW NEAR HUDSONS BAY WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN ITS
WHEELS ON THURSDAY. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL ROTATE AROUND THIS
LOW ON THURSDAY AND MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA. WE/LL HAVE PRETTY COLD
AIR ALOFT FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR IN PLACE AND THE RESULTANT WEAK
INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW LOW-
TOPPED THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY. HAVE HIGHEST POPS /LOW LIKELY/
ACROSS THE INTERIOR WHERE BEST FORCING WILL BE. SOME SMALL HAIL
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

THEREAFTER...THE MAIN QUESTION THEN BECOMES THE CHANCE OF RAIN
OVER THE WEEKEND. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A SOUTHERN
STREAM WAVE ROLLING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY WITH WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS. OTHER DATA ARE NOT AS AGGRESSIVE. HAVE KEPT LOW CHANCE
POPS IN PLACE FOR THE WEEKEND...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR ANY
SOUTHERN STREAM INFLUENCE IN OUR WEATHER. OTHERWISE...DIURNAL
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDS EXCEPT FOR SOME LIFR CONDS IN ANY PATCHY
EARLY MORNING FOG.

LONG TERM...MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY THURSDAY ACROSS THE
INTERIOR...AND POSSIBLE ON THE COAST IN SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS.
THEREAFTER...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND ALTHOUGH WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR A LOW PROBABILITY OF
LOWER CONDITIONS SAT WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS DIMINISH TODAY BUT WILL CONT THE SCA FOR
HAZARDOUS SEAS TODAY FOR THE OUTER WATERS AS SEAS REMAIN 4-6 FT.
SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TONIGHT.

LONG TERM...LOW-END SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THU AND THU
NIGHT...OTHERWISE...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING
     TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ150-152.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KGYX 290745
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
345 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND BE
CENTERED OVER THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY. LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO
THE WEEKEND HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST AS A BROAD
UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST SLOWLY APPROACHES AND POSSIBLY FORMS A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE UPPER TROF RAPIDLY LIFTS OUT TO THE NE TODAY ALLOWING HIGH
PRESSURE TO BUILD EAST INTO THE REGION TODAY. SKIES WILL BECOME
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND WED WITH A DRIER
AIR MASS THAT MOVES OVER THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES. A FEW
INSTBLTY SHWRS CAN`T BE RULED OUT ON WED IN THE MTNS DUE TO AN
UPPER TROF THAT VERY SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE W. LOW TEMPS
TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S AND HIGHS WED ONCE
AGAIN IN THE 70S.

USED A BLEND OF THE MODELS FOR MAX/MIN TEMPS FCST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
PERSISTENT UPPER LOW NEAR HUDSONS BAY WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN ITS
WHEELS ON THURSDAY. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL ROTATE AROUND THIS
LOW ON THURSDAY AND MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA. WE/LL HAVE PRETTY COLD
AIR ALOFT FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR IN PLACE AND THE RESULTANT WEAK
INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW LOW-
TOPPED THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY. HAVE HIGHEST POPS /LOW LIKELY/
ACROSS THE INTERIOR WHERE BEST FORCING WILL BE. SOME SMALL HAIL
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

THEREAFTER...THE MAIN QUESTION THEN BECOMES THE CHANCE OF RAIN
OVER THE WEEKEND. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A SOUTHERN
STREAM WAVE ROLLING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY WITH WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS. OTHER DATA ARE NOT AS AGGRESSIVE. HAVE KEPT LOW CHANCE
POPS IN PLACE FOR THE WEEKEND...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR ANY
SOUTHERN STREAM INFLUENCE IN OUR WEATHER. OTHERWISE...DIURNAL
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDS EXCEPT FOR SOME LIFR CONDS IN ANY PATCHY
EARLY MORNING FOG.

LONG TERM...MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY THURSDAY ACROSS THE
INTERIOR...AND POSSIBLE ON THE COAST IN SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS.
THEREAFTER...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND ALTHOUGH WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR A LOW PROBABILITY OF
LOWER CONDITIONS SAT WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS DIMINISH TODAY BUT WILL CONT THE SCA FOR
HAZARDOUS SEAS TODAY FOR THE OUTER WATERS AS SEAS REMAIN 4-6 FT.
SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TONIGHT.

LONG TERM...LOW-END SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THU AND THU
NIGHT...OTHERWISE...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING
     TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ150-152.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KGYX 290745
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
345 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND BE
CENTERED OVER THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY. LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO
THE WEEKEND HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST AS A BROAD
UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST SLOWLY APPROACHES AND POSSIBLY FORMS A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE UPPER TROF RAPIDLY LIFTS OUT TO THE NE TODAY ALLOWING HIGH
PRESSURE TO BUILD EAST INTO THE REGION TODAY. SKIES WILL BECOME
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND WED WITH A DRIER
AIR MASS THAT MOVES OVER THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES. A FEW
INSTBLTY SHWRS CAN`T BE RULED OUT ON WED IN THE MTNS DUE TO AN
UPPER TROF THAT VERY SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE W. LOW TEMPS
TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S AND HIGHS WED ONCE
AGAIN IN THE 70S.

USED A BLEND OF THE MODELS FOR MAX/MIN TEMPS FCST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
PERSISTENT UPPER LOW NEAR HUDSONS BAY WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN ITS
WHEELS ON THURSDAY. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL ROTATE AROUND THIS
LOW ON THURSDAY AND MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA. WE/LL HAVE PRETTY COLD
AIR ALOFT FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR IN PLACE AND THE RESULTANT WEAK
INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW LOW-
TOPPED THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY. HAVE HIGHEST POPS /LOW LIKELY/
ACROSS THE INTERIOR WHERE BEST FORCING WILL BE. SOME SMALL HAIL
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

THEREAFTER...THE MAIN QUESTION THEN BECOMES THE CHANCE OF RAIN
OVER THE WEEKEND. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A SOUTHERN
STREAM WAVE ROLLING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY WITH WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS. OTHER DATA ARE NOT AS AGGRESSIVE. HAVE KEPT LOW CHANCE
POPS IN PLACE FOR THE WEEKEND...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR ANY
SOUTHERN STREAM INFLUENCE IN OUR WEATHER. OTHERWISE...DIURNAL
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDS EXCEPT FOR SOME LIFR CONDS IN ANY PATCHY
EARLY MORNING FOG.

LONG TERM...MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY THURSDAY ACROSS THE
INTERIOR...AND POSSIBLE ON THE COAST IN SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS.
THEREAFTER...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND ALTHOUGH WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR A LOW PROBABILITY OF
LOWER CONDITIONS SAT WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS DIMINISH TODAY BUT WILL CONT THE SCA FOR
HAZARDOUS SEAS TODAY FOR THE OUTER WATERS AS SEAS REMAIN 4-6 FT.
SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TONIGHT.

LONG TERM...LOW-END SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THU AND THU
NIGHT...OTHERWISE...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING
     TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ150-152.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KGYX 290745
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
345 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND BE
CENTERED OVER THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY. LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO
THE WEEKEND HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST AS A BROAD
UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST SLOWLY APPROACHES AND POSSIBLY FORMS A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE UPPER TROF RAPIDLY LIFTS OUT TO THE NE TODAY ALLOWING HIGH
PRESSURE TO BUILD EAST INTO THE REGION TODAY. SKIES WILL BECOME
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND WED WITH A DRIER
AIR MASS THAT MOVES OVER THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES. A FEW
INSTBLTY SHWRS CAN`T BE RULED OUT ON WED IN THE MTNS DUE TO AN
UPPER TROF THAT VERY SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE W. LOW TEMPS
TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S AND HIGHS WED ONCE
AGAIN IN THE 70S.

USED A BLEND OF THE MODELS FOR MAX/MIN TEMPS FCST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
PERSISTENT UPPER LOW NEAR HUDSONS BAY WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN ITS
WHEELS ON THURSDAY. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL ROTATE AROUND THIS
LOW ON THURSDAY AND MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA. WE/LL HAVE PRETTY COLD
AIR ALOFT FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR IN PLACE AND THE RESULTANT WEAK
INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW LOW-
TOPPED THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY. HAVE HIGHEST POPS /LOW LIKELY/
ACROSS THE INTERIOR WHERE BEST FORCING WILL BE. SOME SMALL HAIL
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

THEREAFTER...THE MAIN QUESTION THEN BECOMES THE CHANCE OF RAIN
OVER THE WEEKEND. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A SOUTHERN
STREAM WAVE ROLLING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY WITH WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS. OTHER DATA ARE NOT AS AGGRESSIVE. HAVE KEPT LOW CHANCE
POPS IN PLACE FOR THE WEEKEND...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR ANY
SOUTHERN STREAM INFLUENCE IN OUR WEATHER. OTHERWISE...DIURNAL
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDS EXCEPT FOR SOME LIFR CONDS IN ANY PATCHY
EARLY MORNING FOG.

LONG TERM...MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY THURSDAY ACROSS THE
INTERIOR...AND POSSIBLE ON THE COAST IN SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS.
THEREAFTER...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND ALTHOUGH WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR A LOW PROBABILITY OF
LOWER CONDITIONS SAT WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS DIMINISH TODAY BUT WILL CONT THE SCA FOR
HAZARDOUS SEAS TODAY FOR THE OUTER WATERS AS SEAS REMAIN 4-6 FT.
SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TONIGHT.

LONG TERM...LOW-END SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THU AND THU
NIGHT...OTHERWISE...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING
     TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ150-152.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KCAR 290715
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
315 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE REGION TODAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL THEN SLOWLY BUILD TOWARD THE REGION TONIGHT
THEN MOVE EAST ON WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE FROM THE
GREAT LAKES WILL APPROACH ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY TRAVERSING ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE EARLY
THIS MORNING, WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING ALONG BEHIND. THE WORST OF
THE RAIN HAS EXITED INTO CANADA, AND JUST EXPECT ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR
FORECAST AREA THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL PUSH TO OUR
EAST BY THIS AFTERNOON, WITH DRIER AIR SPILLING IN BEHIND IT,
EFFECTIVELY BRINGING THE RAIN CHANCES TO AN END FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE NEAR TERM PERIOD. SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT THIS
AFTERNOON AS WELL. HIGHS TODAY WILL GENERALLY TOP OUT IN THE LOWER
TO MID 70S.

FOR TONIGHT...BRIEF RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO NEW ENGLAND. CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S
AREA WIDE, WHILE THE USUAL COLD SPOTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MAINE WOODS
WILL SEE LOWS IN THE 40S. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM
ANTECEDENT RAINS WILL RESULT IN FOG DEVELOPMENT AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODELS CONT TO INDICATE DEEPER TROP MOISTURE TO REMAIN WELL E OF
THE FA THRU THIS PTN OF THE FCST. INSTEAD...S/WVS ROTATING ARND
AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG MID LVL VORTEX OVR E-CNTRL CAN WILL AFFECT
MSLY WRN/NRN PTNS OF THE FA. THE FIRST...WEAK S/WV WILL BRING
ISOLD TO SCT SHWRS AND TSTMS WED AFTN OVR THESE PTNS OF THE FA.

AFT A BREAK LATER WED NGT INTO THU MORN...WHICH WILL FEATURE
PATCHY FOG YIELDING TO PRTL SUNSHINE...A SECOND STRONGER S/WV APCH
FROM THE WSW WILL BRING A BETTER CHC OF AFTN/EVE SHWRS AND TSTMS
THU AFTN INTO ERLY EVE...AGAIN MSLY ACROSS THE W AND N...BUT
POSSIBLY REACHING FURTHER S THAN WED...PERHAPS INTO E CNTRL PTNS
OF THE FA. ANY REMAINING SHWRS/TSTMS SHOULD DISSIPATE LATE THU NGT
WITH MORE PATCHY LATE NGT FOG.

FRI LOOKS TO BE PTLY SUNNY AND SOMEWHAT DRIER BEHIND THE SECOND
S/WV. TEMPS WILL CONT WITH NEAR NORMAL OVRNGT LOWS AND AT OR JUST
ABV NORMAL AFTN HI TEMPS THRU THE SHORT TERM.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LATEST 00Z OPNL ECMWF MODEL RUN NOW SEEMS TO BE IN BE BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THE 00Z GFS IN BRINGING MORE MOISTURE FROM THE WRN
ATLC NWRD INTO THE FA BEGINNING LATE FRI NGT AND INTO SAT AND SUN.
THIS HAS RESULTED IN MORE IN THE WAY OF POPS FOR OUR FA COMPARED
TO WHAT WE INTRODUCED YSTDY...SPCLY FOR SAT AND SUN AFTN/EVE WHERE
DIURNAL HTG/LLVL INSTABILITY WILL AID IN SCT SHWRS AND TSTMS. BETTER
AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE LONGER RANGE MODELS IS LIKELY RELATED THE
ECMWF MODEL SOLUTION BACKING OFF ON THE AMOUNT OF RETROGRESSION OF
THE WRN ATLC UPPER RIDGE BACK TOWARD THE NEW ENG COAST. DESPITE A
GREATER POTENTIAL OF MSLY AFTN/EVE SHWRS/TSTMS...PRTL SUNSHINE IN THE
MORN SHOULD RESULT IN NEAR SEASONAL HI TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION ON
BOTH DAYS. LONGER RANGE MODELS THEN DISAGREE FOR MON...WITH THE
GFS SHOWING DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS AND THE ECMWF SHOWING
ANOTHER S/WV ARRIVING FROM THE W LATE IN THE DAY. BLENDED MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS POPS FOR SCT AFTN SHWRS/TSTMS MON AFTN ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION...WHICH IS WHAT WE SETTLED ON FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MAINLY IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY THIS
MORNING DUE TO LOW CEILINGS AND FOG. OCCASIONAL MVFR POSSIBLE.
CONDITIONS WILL RAPIDLY IMPROVE LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE USHERS DRIER AIR INTO THE
REGION. VFR EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS BY 18Z.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: MSLY VFR ALL TAF SITES...XCPT LCLY MVFR/IFR IN
LATE NIGHT PATCHY FOG WED NGT AND THU NGT AND IN ANY TSTM/HEAVIER SHWR
OVR NRN TAF SITES THU AFTN/ERLY EVE.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SEAS HAVE FINALLY STARTED BUILDING TO AROUND 5 FEET
THIS MORNING, AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. WAVES
OF 4 TO 6 FEET ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT.


SHORT TO LONG TERM: NO HDLNS ANTICIPATED FOR THIS PTN OF THE
FCST...WITH WV HTS XPCTD TO CONT TO SUBSIDE FROM THE NEAR TERM.
WENT WITH ABOUT 75 PERCENT OF THE WV HTS FROM WW3 WV GUIDANCE FOR
THIS PD.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 AM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...HASTINGS
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...HASTINGS/VJN
MARINE...HASTINGS/VJN










000
FXUS61 KCAR 290715
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
315 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE REGION TODAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL THEN SLOWLY BUILD TOWARD THE REGION TONIGHT
THEN MOVE EAST ON WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE FROM THE
GREAT LAKES WILL APPROACH ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY TRAVERSING ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE EARLY
THIS MORNING, WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING ALONG BEHIND. THE WORST OF
THE RAIN HAS EXITED INTO CANADA, AND JUST EXPECT ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR
FORECAST AREA THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL PUSH TO OUR
EAST BY THIS AFTERNOON, WITH DRIER AIR SPILLING IN BEHIND IT,
EFFECTIVELY BRINGING THE RAIN CHANCES TO AN END FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE NEAR TERM PERIOD. SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT THIS
AFTERNOON AS WELL. HIGHS TODAY WILL GENERALLY TOP OUT IN THE LOWER
TO MID 70S.

FOR TONIGHT...BRIEF RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO NEW ENGLAND. CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S
AREA WIDE, WHILE THE USUAL COLD SPOTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MAINE WOODS
WILL SEE LOWS IN THE 40S. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM
ANTECEDENT RAINS WILL RESULT IN FOG DEVELOPMENT AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODELS CONT TO INDICATE DEEPER TROP MOISTURE TO REMAIN WELL E OF
THE FA THRU THIS PTN OF THE FCST. INSTEAD...S/WVS ROTATING ARND
AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG MID LVL VORTEX OVR E-CNTRL CAN WILL AFFECT
MSLY WRN/NRN PTNS OF THE FA. THE FIRST...WEAK S/WV WILL BRING
ISOLD TO SCT SHWRS AND TSTMS WED AFTN OVR THESE PTNS OF THE FA.

AFT A BREAK LATER WED NGT INTO THU MORN...WHICH WILL FEATURE
PATCHY FOG YIELDING TO PRTL SUNSHINE...A SECOND STRONGER S/WV APCH
FROM THE WSW WILL BRING A BETTER CHC OF AFTN/EVE SHWRS AND TSTMS
THU AFTN INTO ERLY EVE...AGAIN MSLY ACROSS THE W AND N...BUT
POSSIBLY REACHING FURTHER S THAN WED...PERHAPS INTO E CNTRL PTNS
OF THE FA. ANY REMAINING SHWRS/TSTMS SHOULD DISSIPATE LATE THU NGT
WITH MORE PATCHY LATE NGT FOG.

FRI LOOKS TO BE PTLY SUNNY AND SOMEWHAT DRIER BEHIND THE SECOND
S/WV. TEMPS WILL CONT WITH NEAR NORMAL OVRNGT LOWS AND AT OR JUST
ABV NORMAL AFTN HI TEMPS THRU THE SHORT TERM.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LATEST 00Z OPNL ECMWF MODEL RUN NOW SEEMS TO BE IN BE BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THE 00Z GFS IN BRINGING MORE MOISTURE FROM THE WRN
ATLC NWRD INTO THE FA BEGINNING LATE FRI NGT AND INTO SAT AND SUN.
THIS HAS RESULTED IN MORE IN THE WAY OF POPS FOR OUR FA COMPARED
TO WHAT WE INTRODUCED YSTDY...SPCLY FOR SAT AND SUN AFTN/EVE WHERE
DIURNAL HTG/LLVL INSTABILITY WILL AID IN SCT SHWRS AND TSTMS. BETTER
AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE LONGER RANGE MODELS IS LIKELY RELATED THE
ECMWF MODEL SOLUTION BACKING OFF ON THE AMOUNT OF RETROGRESSION OF
THE WRN ATLC UPPER RIDGE BACK TOWARD THE NEW ENG COAST. DESPITE A
GREATER POTENTIAL OF MSLY AFTN/EVE SHWRS/TSTMS...PRTL SUNSHINE IN THE
MORN SHOULD RESULT IN NEAR SEASONAL HI TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION ON
BOTH DAYS. LONGER RANGE MODELS THEN DISAGREE FOR MON...WITH THE
GFS SHOWING DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS AND THE ECMWF SHOWING
ANOTHER S/WV ARRIVING FROM THE W LATE IN THE DAY. BLENDED MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS POPS FOR SCT AFTN SHWRS/TSTMS MON AFTN ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION...WHICH IS WHAT WE SETTLED ON FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MAINLY IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY THIS
MORNING DUE TO LOW CEILINGS AND FOG. OCCASIONAL MVFR POSSIBLE.
CONDITIONS WILL RAPIDLY IMPROVE LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE USHERS DRIER AIR INTO THE
REGION. VFR EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS BY 18Z.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: MSLY VFR ALL TAF SITES...XCPT LCLY MVFR/IFR IN
LATE NIGHT PATCHY FOG WED NGT AND THU NGT AND IN ANY TSTM/HEAVIER SHWR
OVR NRN TAF SITES THU AFTN/ERLY EVE.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SEAS HAVE FINALLY STARTED BUILDING TO AROUND 5 FEET
THIS MORNING, AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. WAVES
OF 4 TO 6 FEET ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT.


SHORT TO LONG TERM: NO HDLNS ANTICIPATED FOR THIS PTN OF THE
FCST...WITH WV HTS XPCTD TO CONT TO SUBSIDE FROM THE NEAR TERM.
WENT WITH ABOUT 75 PERCENT OF THE WV HTS FROM WW3 WV GUIDANCE FOR
THIS PD.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 AM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...HASTINGS
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...HASTINGS/VJN
MARINE...HASTINGS/VJN










000
FXUS61 KCAR 290715
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
315 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE REGION TODAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL THEN SLOWLY BUILD TOWARD THE REGION TONIGHT
THEN MOVE EAST ON WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE FROM THE
GREAT LAKES WILL APPROACH ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY TRAVERSING ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE EARLY
THIS MORNING, WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING ALONG BEHIND. THE WORST OF
THE RAIN HAS EXITED INTO CANADA, AND JUST EXPECT ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR
FORECAST AREA THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL PUSH TO OUR
EAST BY THIS AFTERNOON, WITH DRIER AIR SPILLING IN BEHIND IT,
EFFECTIVELY BRINGING THE RAIN CHANCES TO AN END FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE NEAR TERM PERIOD. SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT THIS
AFTERNOON AS WELL. HIGHS TODAY WILL GENERALLY TOP OUT IN THE LOWER
TO MID 70S.

FOR TONIGHT...BRIEF RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO NEW ENGLAND. CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S
AREA WIDE, WHILE THE USUAL COLD SPOTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MAINE WOODS
WILL SEE LOWS IN THE 40S. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM
ANTECEDENT RAINS WILL RESULT IN FOG DEVELOPMENT AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODELS CONT TO INDICATE DEEPER TROP MOISTURE TO REMAIN WELL E OF
THE FA THRU THIS PTN OF THE FCST. INSTEAD...S/WVS ROTATING ARND
AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG MID LVL VORTEX OVR E-CNTRL CAN WILL AFFECT
MSLY WRN/NRN PTNS OF THE FA. THE FIRST...WEAK S/WV WILL BRING
ISOLD TO SCT SHWRS AND TSTMS WED AFTN OVR THESE PTNS OF THE FA.

AFT A BREAK LATER WED NGT INTO THU MORN...WHICH WILL FEATURE
PATCHY FOG YIELDING TO PRTL SUNSHINE...A SECOND STRONGER S/WV APCH
FROM THE WSW WILL BRING A BETTER CHC OF AFTN/EVE SHWRS AND TSTMS
THU AFTN INTO ERLY EVE...AGAIN MSLY ACROSS THE W AND N...BUT
POSSIBLY REACHING FURTHER S THAN WED...PERHAPS INTO E CNTRL PTNS
OF THE FA. ANY REMAINING SHWRS/TSTMS SHOULD DISSIPATE LATE THU NGT
WITH MORE PATCHY LATE NGT FOG.

FRI LOOKS TO BE PTLY SUNNY AND SOMEWHAT DRIER BEHIND THE SECOND
S/WV. TEMPS WILL CONT WITH NEAR NORMAL OVRNGT LOWS AND AT OR JUST
ABV NORMAL AFTN HI TEMPS THRU THE SHORT TERM.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LATEST 00Z OPNL ECMWF MODEL RUN NOW SEEMS TO BE IN BE BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THE 00Z GFS IN BRINGING MORE MOISTURE FROM THE WRN
ATLC NWRD INTO THE FA BEGINNING LATE FRI NGT AND INTO SAT AND SUN.
THIS HAS RESULTED IN MORE IN THE WAY OF POPS FOR OUR FA COMPARED
TO WHAT WE INTRODUCED YSTDY...SPCLY FOR SAT AND SUN AFTN/EVE WHERE
DIURNAL HTG/LLVL INSTABILITY WILL AID IN SCT SHWRS AND TSTMS. BETTER
AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE LONGER RANGE MODELS IS LIKELY RELATED THE
ECMWF MODEL SOLUTION BACKING OFF ON THE AMOUNT OF RETROGRESSION OF
THE WRN ATLC UPPER RIDGE BACK TOWARD THE NEW ENG COAST. DESPITE A
GREATER POTENTIAL OF MSLY AFTN/EVE SHWRS/TSTMS...PRTL SUNSHINE IN THE
MORN SHOULD RESULT IN NEAR SEASONAL HI TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION ON
BOTH DAYS. LONGER RANGE MODELS THEN DISAGREE FOR MON...WITH THE
GFS SHOWING DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS AND THE ECMWF SHOWING
ANOTHER S/WV ARRIVING FROM THE W LATE IN THE DAY. BLENDED MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS POPS FOR SCT AFTN SHWRS/TSTMS MON AFTN ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION...WHICH IS WHAT WE SETTLED ON FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MAINLY IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY THIS
MORNING DUE TO LOW CEILINGS AND FOG. OCCASIONAL MVFR POSSIBLE.
CONDITIONS WILL RAPIDLY IMPROVE LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE USHERS DRIER AIR INTO THE
REGION. VFR EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS BY 18Z.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: MSLY VFR ALL TAF SITES...XCPT LCLY MVFR/IFR IN
LATE NIGHT PATCHY FOG WED NGT AND THU NGT AND IN ANY TSTM/HEAVIER SHWR
OVR NRN TAF SITES THU AFTN/ERLY EVE.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SEAS HAVE FINALLY STARTED BUILDING TO AROUND 5 FEET
THIS MORNING, AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. WAVES
OF 4 TO 6 FEET ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT.


SHORT TO LONG TERM: NO HDLNS ANTICIPATED FOR THIS PTN OF THE
FCST...WITH WV HTS XPCTD TO CONT TO SUBSIDE FROM THE NEAR TERM.
WENT WITH ABOUT 75 PERCENT OF THE WV HTS FROM WW3 WV GUIDANCE FOR
THIS PD.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 AM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...HASTINGS
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...HASTINGS/VJN
MARINE...HASTINGS/VJN










000
FXUS61 KCAR 290715
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
315 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE REGION TODAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL THEN SLOWLY BUILD TOWARD THE REGION TONIGHT
THEN MOVE EAST ON WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE FROM THE
GREAT LAKES WILL APPROACH ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY TRAVERSING ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE EARLY
THIS MORNING, WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING ALONG BEHIND. THE WORST OF
THE RAIN HAS EXITED INTO CANADA, AND JUST EXPECT ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR
FORECAST AREA THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL PUSH TO OUR
EAST BY THIS AFTERNOON, WITH DRIER AIR SPILLING IN BEHIND IT,
EFFECTIVELY BRINGING THE RAIN CHANCES TO AN END FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE NEAR TERM PERIOD. SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT THIS
AFTERNOON AS WELL. HIGHS TODAY WILL GENERALLY TOP OUT IN THE LOWER
TO MID 70S.

FOR TONIGHT...BRIEF RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO NEW ENGLAND. CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S
AREA WIDE, WHILE THE USUAL COLD SPOTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MAINE WOODS
WILL SEE LOWS IN THE 40S. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM
ANTECEDENT RAINS WILL RESULT IN FOG DEVELOPMENT AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODELS CONT TO INDICATE DEEPER TROP MOISTURE TO REMAIN WELL E OF
THE FA THRU THIS PTN OF THE FCST. INSTEAD...S/WVS ROTATING ARND
AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG MID LVL VORTEX OVR E-CNTRL CAN WILL AFFECT
MSLY WRN/NRN PTNS OF THE FA. THE FIRST...WEAK S/WV WILL BRING
ISOLD TO SCT SHWRS AND TSTMS WED AFTN OVR THESE PTNS OF THE FA.

AFT A BREAK LATER WED NGT INTO THU MORN...WHICH WILL FEATURE
PATCHY FOG YIELDING TO PRTL SUNSHINE...A SECOND STRONGER S/WV APCH
FROM THE WSW WILL BRING A BETTER CHC OF AFTN/EVE SHWRS AND TSTMS
THU AFTN INTO ERLY EVE...AGAIN MSLY ACROSS THE W AND N...BUT
POSSIBLY REACHING FURTHER S THAN WED...PERHAPS INTO E CNTRL PTNS
OF THE FA. ANY REMAINING SHWRS/TSTMS SHOULD DISSIPATE LATE THU NGT
WITH MORE PATCHY LATE NGT FOG.

FRI LOOKS TO BE PTLY SUNNY AND SOMEWHAT DRIER BEHIND THE SECOND
S/WV. TEMPS WILL CONT WITH NEAR NORMAL OVRNGT LOWS AND AT OR JUST
ABV NORMAL AFTN HI TEMPS THRU THE SHORT TERM.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LATEST 00Z OPNL ECMWF MODEL RUN NOW SEEMS TO BE IN BE BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THE 00Z GFS IN BRINGING MORE MOISTURE FROM THE WRN
ATLC NWRD INTO THE FA BEGINNING LATE FRI NGT AND INTO SAT AND SUN.
THIS HAS RESULTED IN MORE IN THE WAY OF POPS FOR OUR FA COMPARED
TO WHAT WE INTRODUCED YSTDY...SPCLY FOR SAT AND SUN AFTN/EVE WHERE
DIURNAL HTG/LLVL INSTABILITY WILL AID IN SCT SHWRS AND TSTMS. BETTER
AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE LONGER RANGE MODELS IS LIKELY RELATED THE
ECMWF MODEL SOLUTION BACKING OFF ON THE AMOUNT OF RETROGRESSION OF
THE WRN ATLC UPPER RIDGE BACK TOWARD THE NEW ENG COAST. DESPITE A
GREATER POTENTIAL OF MSLY AFTN/EVE SHWRS/TSTMS...PRTL SUNSHINE IN THE
MORN SHOULD RESULT IN NEAR SEASONAL HI TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION ON
BOTH DAYS. LONGER RANGE MODELS THEN DISAGREE FOR MON...WITH THE
GFS SHOWING DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS AND THE ECMWF SHOWING
ANOTHER S/WV ARRIVING FROM THE W LATE IN THE DAY. BLENDED MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS POPS FOR SCT AFTN SHWRS/TSTMS MON AFTN ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION...WHICH IS WHAT WE SETTLED ON FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MAINLY IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY THIS
MORNING DUE TO LOW CEILINGS AND FOG. OCCASIONAL MVFR POSSIBLE.
CONDITIONS WILL RAPIDLY IMPROVE LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE USHERS DRIER AIR INTO THE
REGION. VFR EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS BY 18Z.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: MSLY VFR ALL TAF SITES...XCPT LCLY MVFR/IFR IN
LATE NIGHT PATCHY FOG WED NGT AND THU NGT AND IN ANY TSTM/HEAVIER SHWR
OVR NRN TAF SITES THU AFTN/ERLY EVE.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SEAS HAVE FINALLY STARTED BUILDING TO AROUND 5 FEET
THIS MORNING, AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. WAVES
OF 4 TO 6 FEET ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT.


SHORT TO LONG TERM: NO HDLNS ANTICIPATED FOR THIS PTN OF THE
FCST...WITH WV HTS XPCTD TO CONT TO SUBSIDE FROM THE NEAR TERM.
WENT WITH ABOUT 75 PERCENT OF THE WV HTS FROM WW3 WV GUIDANCE FOR
THIS PD.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 AM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...HASTINGS
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...HASTINGS/VJN
MARINE...HASTINGS/VJN










000
FXUS61 KCAR 290325
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1125 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THIS
EVENING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL THEN SLOWLY
BUILD TOWARD THE REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
1125 PM UPDATE...AREA OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS IS QUICKLY MOVING NORTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN
SOMERSET, PISCATAQUIS, AND PENOBSCOT COUNTIES. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ALONG WITH
DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. HAVE UPDATED POPS AND WEATHER
ACCORDINGLY. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN THREATS THIS TERM WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL AND CONVECTION W/SOME WIND.

A LARGE AREA OF RAIN W/EMBEDDED CONVECTION LIFTING N THIS
AFTERNOON AS EVIDENT ON THE RADAR. HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIFT ACROSS
THE PISCATAQUIS BASIN ATTM AND WILL LIFT NE INTO WESTERN AND
NORTHWEST AREAS INTO THE EVENING. LATEST MESO ANALYSIS SHOWED
DECENT AREA OF INSTABILITY ACROSS THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS
W/MUCAPES OF 1000 JOULES NOSING RIGHT UP INTO THE NORTH MAINE
WOODS. ANOTHER AREA WAS SETTING UP ACROSS THE EASTERN AREAS AS
SEEN BY THE NOSE OF LIFTED INDEX OF -3 TO -5. WE SHOULD SEE SOME
TSTMS IN THE EASTERN AREAS THIS EVENING AND MORE ACROSS THE NORTH
AND WEST OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW LIFTS NORTHWARD. 12Z UA SHOWED
A COLD POCKET IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS OVER NYS AND THIS AREA
WILL LIFT N OVERNIGHT ENHANCING THE THREAT FOR TSTMS. 0-6KM SHEAR
OF 20+ KTS ALONG W/ELEVATED CAPE OF 600 JOULES COULD ALLOW FOR
SOME STRONG STORMS WHICH COULD DELIVER SOME STRONG WIND GUSTS AS
WELL AS HEAVY RAINFALL. EVEN SOME SMALL HAIL IS POSSIBLE. DECIDED
TO INCLUDE HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS IN THE FORECAST TONIGHT
W/THE MAIN FOCUS ACROSS THE WEST THIS EVENING AND THEN FURTHER
NORTH LATER TONIGHT. WPC HAS SOME CONCERN FOR TRAINING CELLS
W/SOME AREAS EXCEEDING FFG. THIS WILL MAINLY BE ACROSS THE WESTERN
MOUNTAINS AND TOWARDS GYX`S CWA. FOG IS STILL HANGING AROUND THE
COASTAL AREAS AND ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG IS EXPECTED MAINLY FOR THE
DOWNEAST AND COAST AS SOME CLEARING TAKES PLACE LATER TONIGHT INTO
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS WILL SEE PATCHY
FOG N OF A HOULTON-MILLINOCKET LINE.

LOW PRES IS EXPECTED TO LIFT INTO SOUTHERN CANADA TUESDAY MORNING
W/THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SWINGING ACROSS THE REGION. STAYED
W/SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER IN THE MORNING AND THEN
DRYING TAKING HOLD BY LATE MORNING W/CLEARING. COOLER AND DRIER FOR
TUESDAY AFTERNOON W/TEMPERATURES FOR THE AFTERNOON WILL TOP OUT IN
THE LOW TO MID 70S FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DRIER AIR MOVES IN LATE TUESDAY AS THE SYSTEM EXITS TO THE
NORTHEAST. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR TUESDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW
FOR SOME RATHER COOL TEMPERATURES.

FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, UPPER LOW WILL PERSIST TO OUR
WEST/NORTHWEST NEAR OR A BIT SOUTH OF JAMES BAY. WE WILL REMAIN
IN CYCLONIC SOUTHWEST FLOW, AND CAN`T RULE OUT SOME AFTERNOON
SHOWERS OR STORMS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY IGNITED WITH THE HELP OF
SUBTLE SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW.

TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE CLOSE TO AVERAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A FULL LATITUDE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS THROUGH QUEBEC AND LIFT INTO THE
MARITIMES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.  SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE TROUGH
AXIS WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MOSTLY IFR AND VLIFR TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE A FEW AREAS
OF MVFR LATE THIS EVENING ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE. T-STORMS MAY
LOCALLY PRODUCE STRONG AND ERRATIC WIND GUSTS THIS EVENING. FOG
WILL BE A CONCERN MAINLY FOR THE KBGR AND KBHB TERMINALS
ESPECIALLY AS VSBYS COULD DROP DOWN TO 1/4 OR LESS. AS DRIER AIR
WORKS IN ON TUESDAY, CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR BY MID
MORNING AND THEN VFR BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM: GENERALLY VFR FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
MAIN EXCEPTION WILL BE PATCHY MORNING FOG BOTH WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH TUE NIGHT.
SEAS HAVE BEEN VERY SLOW TO COME UP AND ARE RUNNING AROUND 3-4 FT AS
OF 9 PM...WHICH IS ABOUT 2 FT BELOW GUIDANCE. A BIT RELUCTANT TO
DROP THE SCA JUST YET AS THE SFC LOW IS UNUSUALLY DEEP FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR...AND THERE IS STILL A WINDOW OF TIME THAT THE WIND
COULD PICK UP OVER THE WATERS OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW LIFTS WEST OF
THE AREA. IF THE SEAS DO NOT BUILD AS MUCH AS EXPECTED THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY MIGHT BE ABLE TO BE DISCONTINUED WITH THE NEXT
UPDATE.

SHORT TERM: SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO BELOW 5 FEET/SMALL CRAFT LEVELS
TUESDAY EVENING, AND WINDS AND SEAS WILL THEN REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
A TOTAL OF 6.67" OF RAIN HAS FALLEN AT BANGOR AS OF 4
PM TODAY. IT NOW RANKS AS THE 3RD WETTEST JULY ON RECORD. THE
ALL-TIME WETTEST JULY WAS OBSERVED IN 1983 WHEN A TOTAL OF 7.25"
OF RAIN FELL.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 AM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...HASTINGS/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...FOISY
LONG TERM...OKULSKI
AVIATION...HASTINGS/HEWITT/FOISY
MARINE...HASTINGS/HEWITT/FOISY
CLIMATE...CB






000
FXUS61 KCAR 290325
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1125 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THIS
EVENING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL THEN SLOWLY
BUILD TOWARD THE REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
1125 PM UPDATE...AREA OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS IS QUICKLY MOVING NORTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN
SOMERSET, PISCATAQUIS, AND PENOBSCOT COUNTIES. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ALONG WITH
DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. HAVE UPDATED POPS AND WEATHER
ACCORDINGLY. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN THREATS THIS TERM WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL AND CONVECTION W/SOME WIND.

A LARGE AREA OF RAIN W/EMBEDDED CONVECTION LIFTING N THIS
AFTERNOON AS EVIDENT ON THE RADAR. HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIFT ACROSS
THE PISCATAQUIS BASIN ATTM AND WILL LIFT NE INTO WESTERN AND
NORTHWEST AREAS INTO THE EVENING. LATEST MESO ANALYSIS SHOWED
DECENT AREA OF INSTABILITY ACROSS THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS
W/MUCAPES OF 1000 JOULES NOSING RIGHT UP INTO THE NORTH MAINE
WOODS. ANOTHER AREA WAS SETTING UP ACROSS THE EASTERN AREAS AS
SEEN BY THE NOSE OF LIFTED INDEX OF -3 TO -5. WE SHOULD SEE SOME
TSTMS IN THE EASTERN AREAS THIS EVENING AND MORE ACROSS THE NORTH
AND WEST OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW LIFTS NORTHWARD. 12Z UA SHOWED
A COLD POCKET IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS OVER NYS AND THIS AREA
WILL LIFT N OVERNIGHT ENHANCING THE THREAT FOR TSTMS. 0-6KM SHEAR
OF 20+ KTS ALONG W/ELEVATED CAPE OF 600 JOULES COULD ALLOW FOR
SOME STRONG STORMS WHICH COULD DELIVER SOME STRONG WIND GUSTS AS
WELL AS HEAVY RAINFALL. EVEN SOME SMALL HAIL IS POSSIBLE. DECIDED
TO INCLUDE HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS IN THE FORECAST TONIGHT
W/THE MAIN FOCUS ACROSS THE WEST THIS EVENING AND THEN FURTHER
NORTH LATER TONIGHT. WPC HAS SOME CONCERN FOR TRAINING CELLS
W/SOME AREAS EXCEEDING FFG. THIS WILL MAINLY BE ACROSS THE WESTERN
MOUNTAINS AND TOWARDS GYX`S CWA. FOG IS STILL HANGING AROUND THE
COASTAL AREAS AND ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG IS EXPECTED MAINLY FOR THE
DOWNEAST AND COAST AS SOME CLEARING TAKES PLACE LATER TONIGHT INTO
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS WILL SEE PATCHY
FOG N OF A HOULTON-MILLINOCKET LINE.

LOW PRES IS EXPECTED TO LIFT INTO SOUTHERN CANADA TUESDAY MORNING
W/THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SWINGING ACROSS THE REGION. STAYED
W/SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER IN THE MORNING AND THEN
DRYING TAKING HOLD BY LATE MORNING W/CLEARING. COOLER AND DRIER FOR
TUESDAY AFTERNOON W/TEMPERATURES FOR THE AFTERNOON WILL TOP OUT IN
THE LOW TO MID 70S FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DRIER AIR MOVES IN LATE TUESDAY AS THE SYSTEM EXITS TO THE
NORTHEAST. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR TUESDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW
FOR SOME RATHER COOL TEMPERATURES.

FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, UPPER LOW WILL PERSIST TO OUR
WEST/NORTHWEST NEAR OR A BIT SOUTH OF JAMES BAY. WE WILL REMAIN
IN CYCLONIC SOUTHWEST FLOW, AND CAN`T RULE OUT SOME AFTERNOON
SHOWERS OR STORMS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY IGNITED WITH THE HELP OF
SUBTLE SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW.

TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE CLOSE TO AVERAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A FULL LATITUDE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS THROUGH QUEBEC AND LIFT INTO THE
MARITIMES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.  SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE TROUGH
AXIS WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MOSTLY IFR AND VLIFR TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE A FEW AREAS
OF MVFR LATE THIS EVENING ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE. T-STORMS MAY
LOCALLY PRODUCE STRONG AND ERRATIC WIND GUSTS THIS EVENING. FOG
WILL BE A CONCERN MAINLY FOR THE KBGR AND KBHB TERMINALS
ESPECIALLY AS VSBYS COULD DROP DOWN TO 1/4 OR LESS. AS DRIER AIR
WORKS IN ON TUESDAY, CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR BY MID
MORNING AND THEN VFR BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM: GENERALLY VFR FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
MAIN EXCEPTION WILL BE PATCHY MORNING FOG BOTH WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH TUE NIGHT.
SEAS HAVE BEEN VERY SLOW TO COME UP AND ARE RUNNING AROUND 3-4 FT AS
OF 9 PM...WHICH IS ABOUT 2 FT BELOW GUIDANCE. A BIT RELUCTANT TO
DROP THE SCA JUST YET AS THE SFC LOW IS UNUSUALLY DEEP FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR...AND THERE IS STILL A WINDOW OF TIME THAT THE WIND
COULD PICK UP OVER THE WATERS OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW LIFTS WEST OF
THE AREA. IF THE SEAS DO NOT BUILD AS MUCH AS EXPECTED THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY MIGHT BE ABLE TO BE DISCONTINUED WITH THE NEXT
UPDATE.

SHORT TERM: SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO BELOW 5 FEET/SMALL CRAFT LEVELS
TUESDAY EVENING, AND WINDS AND SEAS WILL THEN REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
A TOTAL OF 6.67" OF RAIN HAS FALLEN AT BANGOR AS OF 4
PM TODAY. IT NOW RANKS AS THE 3RD WETTEST JULY ON RECORD. THE
ALL-TIME WETTEST JULY WAS OBSERVED IN 1983 WHEN A TOTAL OF 7.25"
OF RAIN FELL.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 AM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...HASTINGS/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...FOISY
LONG TERM...OKULSKI
AVIATION...HASTINGS/HEWITT/FOISY
MARINE...HASTINGS/HEWITT/FOISY
CLIMATE...CB







000
FXUS61 KGYX 290318
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1118 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK THROUGH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND INTO
EASTERN CANADA TONIGHT. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE OFF THE
COAST TONIGHT THEN REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION THRU THE END OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
1105 PM UPDATE: ATTM A FEW AREAS OF LINGERING SHWRS ACROSS ECNTRL
NH AND THE WRN MTNS OF ME...OTRW DRY CONDS ELSWHR. ADJUSTED POPS
TO REFLECT THE FEW REMAINING AREAS OF SHWRS AND ISOLD TSTMS FOR
THE NEXT FEW HRS AS THE UPPER TROF LIFTS NEWD AND ALSO TO BETTER
REFLECT MOST OF THE AREAS BEING SHWR FREE. WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE
HANGING AROUND FROM ALL THE RAIN THIS EVENING WILL EXPECT SOME
PATCHY FOG TO DEVLOP AFTER MIDNIGHT.

PREV DISC:
SVR TSTM WATCH NUMBER 452 IN EFFECT THRU 8 PM FOR ALL OF OUT NH
ZONES AND ALL BUT OUR MOST ERN ZONES IN ME. THREAT IS FOR LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. EVEN AN ISOLATED TORNADO CAN NOT BE RULED
OUT. ALSO...ANY TORRENTIAL RAIN THAT FALLS ON TOP OF SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL THAT HAS ALSO FALLEN COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING.

THE SFC LOW TRACKS TO THE N NE MOVING ACROSS NH AND FAR NW MAINE
THEN INTO ERN CANADA TNGT. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WORKS ITS WAY E
ACROSS THE FCST AREA...PUSHING JUST OFFSHORE BY DAYBREAK.

THE LOW AND FNT PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR THE SHRA/TSTM ACTIVITY. VERY
MOIST AIR IN PLACE AS INDICATED BY SFC DEW POINTS...850 MB DEW
POINTS AND PWAT VALUES. THIS SUPPORTS THE HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL
INTO THIS EVE. INSTABILITY AND SPEED AND DIRECTIONAL SHEAR ALONG
WITH DYNAMICS FROM STRONG UPPER LVL TROF LIFTING OUT TO THE NE
ACROSS THE REGION PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR SVR CONVECTION.

AFTER THIS EVE...STILL SHRA AND MAYBE A TSTM AROUND WITH PASSAGE
OF FNT. DUE TO ALL THE RECENT RAINFALL SHOULD BE AREAS OF DENSE
F AROUND...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS AHEAD OF THE FNT. THE FNT IS
FOLLOWED BY A WIND SHIFT TO THE W NW BUT WINDS MAY NOT PICK UP
ENOUGH TO SCOUR OUT THE LOW LVL MOISTURE AND F.

USED A BLEND OF MODELS AND MOS GUIDANCE FOR THE NEAR TERM FCST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS THE SFC LOW MOVES WELL INTO ERN CANADA THE UPPER LVL FLOW
REMAINS FROM THE SW AS AN UPPER LVL CUTOFF LOW REMAINS OVER OR
JUST N OF THE GREAT LAKES. THIS KEEPS THE SFC COLD FNT FROM MOVING
MUCH MORE TO THE E...IN FACT IN MAY MOVE BACK TO THE W. THE FNT IS
WEAKENING AND WILL THEREFORE NOT PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR ANY PRCP...
ESPECIALLY WITH DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION
AS THE DRY WEDGE WRAPS ALL THE WAY AROUND THE UPPER LVL CUTOFF LOW
AND UP THE ERN SEABOARD. HIGHS IN THE 70S ON TUESDAY AS DEW POINTS
DROP INTO THE 50S. THIS LEADS TO COOL OVERNIGHT LOWS TUESDAY NGT
     FROM THE 40S N TO THE 50S S.

USED A BLEND OF MODELS AND MOS GUIDANCE FOR THE SHORT TERM FCST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
500 MULTIPLE OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN WILL HOLD FROM THE PACIFIC EWD
ACROSS THE CONUS AND INTO THE ATLANTIC....ALTHOUGH AMPLITUDE WILL
SLOWLY WEAKEN TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
SO...THE COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT NWD AND BE ME
REPLACES MORE LOW LVL MOISTURE AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS. THE
TREND WILL BE FOR HIGHS RUNNING NEAR NORMAL...AND MINS SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL. COULD SEE A WAVE MOVE THROUGH THE SW FLOW ALOFT AND
MAYBE BRING A THREAT OF SCT SHRA/TSRA...ESPECIALLY IN THE MTNS.
FOR NOW THIS LOOKS TO BE CENTERED AROUND FRIDAY...AND THEN ANOTHER
ROUND SUN NIGHT INTO MON...AS PERHAPS A MORE SIGNIFICANT WAVE
PUSHES THE 500 TROUGH SWD.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...MAINLY VFR CONDS THE REST OF
THE NIGHT EXCEPT FOR SOME LIFR CONDS IN ANY PATCHY FOG. CONDITIONS
IMPROVE TO VFR FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NGT.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR...EXCEPT FOR EARLY MORNING VLY FOG/WED
THRU SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
WILL CONT THE SCA FOR THE REST OF TNGT AND TUESDAY FOR THE OUTER
WATERS. THE SCA IN THE BAYS WAS DISCONTINUED. EXPECT WINDS OVER
THE OUTER WATERS TO GUST TO SCA LEVELS TNGT AND SEAS TO BUILD TO
SCA LEVELS AS WELL. WINDS DROP OFF FOR TUESDAY BUT SEAS WILL
REMAIN ROUGH THRU THE DAY OVER THE OUTER WATERS. CONDITIONS SHOULD BE
DROPPING BELOW SCA LEVELS TUESDAY NGT.

LONG TERM...PERSISTENT S-SW FLOW COULD CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SOME
SWELL TO NEAR 5 FT WED NIGHT AND THU...BUT OTHERWISE WED THRU SAT.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KGYX 290318
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1118 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK THROUGH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND INTO
EASTERN CANADA TONIGHT. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE OFF THE
COAST TONIGHT THEN REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION THRU THE END OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
1105 PM UPDATE: ATTM A FEW AREAS OF LINGERING SHWRS ACROSS ECNTRL
NH AND THE WRN MTNS OF ME...OTRW DRY CONDS ELSWHR. ADJUSTED POPS
TO REFLECT THE FEW REMAINING AREAS OF SHWRS AND ISOLD TSTMS FOR
THE NEXT FEW HRS AS THE UPPER TROF LIFTS NEWD AND ALSO TO BETTER
REFLECT MOST OF THE AREAS BEING SHWR FREE. WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE
HANGING AROUND FROM ALL THE RAIN THIS EVENING WILL EXPECT SOME
PATCHY FOG TO DEVLOP AFTER MIDNIGHT.

PREV DISC:
SVR TSTM WATCH NUMBER 452 IN EFFECT THRU 8 PM FOR ALL OF OUT NH
ZONES AND ALL BUT OUR MOST ERN ZONES IN ME. THREAT IS FOR LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. EVEN AN ISOLATED TORNADO CAN NOT BE RULED
OUT. ALSO...ANY TORRENTIAL RAIN THAT FALLS ON TOP OF SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL THAT HAS ALSO FALLEN COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING.

THE SFC LOW TRACKS TO THE N NE MOVING ACROSS NH AND FAR NW MAINE
THEN INTO ERN CANADA TNGT. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WORKS ITS WAY E
ACROSS THE FCST AREA...PUSHING JUST OFFSHORE BY DAYBREAK.

THE LOW AND FNT PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR THE SHRA/TSTM ACTIVITY. VERY
MOIST AIR IN PLACE AS INDICATED BY SFC DEW POINTS...850 MB DEW
POINTS AND PWAT VALUES. THIS SUPPORTS THE HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL
INTO THIS EVE. INSTABILITY AND SPEED AND DIRECTIONAL SHEAR ALONG
WITH DYNAMICS FROM STRONG UPPER LVL TROF LIFTING OUT TO THE NE
ACROSS THE REGION PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR SVR CONVECTION.

AFTER THIS EVE...STILL SHRA AND MAYBE A TSTM AROUND WITH PASSAGE
OF FNT. DUE TO ALL THE RECENT RAINFALL SHOULD BE AREAS OF DENSE
F AROUND...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS AHEAD OF THE FNT. THE FNT IS
FOLLOWED BY A WIND SHIFT TO THE W NW BUT WINDS MAY NOT PICK UP
ENOUGH TO SCOUR OUT THE LOW LVL MOISTURE AND F.

USED A BLEND OF MODELS AND MOS GUIDANCE FOR THE NEAR TERM FCST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS THE SFC LOW MOVES WELL INTO ERN CANADA THE UPPER LVL FLOW
REMAINS FROM THE SW AS AN UPPER LVL CUTOFF LOW REMAINS OVER OR
JUST N OF THE GREAT LAKES. THIS KEEPS THE SFC COLD FNT FROM MOVING
MUCH MORE TO THE E...IN FACT IN MAY MOVE BACK TO THE W. THE FNT IS
WEAKENING AND WILL THEREFORE NOT PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR ANY PRCP...
ESPECIALLY WITH DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION
AS THE DRY WEDGE WRAPS ALL THE WAY AROUND THE UPPER LVL CUTOFF LOW
AND UP THE ERN SEABOARD. HIGHS IN THE 70S ON TUESDAY AS DEW POINTS
DROP INTO THE 50S. THIS LEADS TO COOL OVERNIGHT LOWS TUESDAY NGT
     FROM THE 40S N TO THE 50S S.

USED A BLEND OF MODELS AND MOS GUIDANCE FOR THE SHORT TERM FCST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
500 MULTIPLE OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN WILL HOLD FROM THE PACIFIC EWD
ACROSS THE CONUS AND INTO THE ATLANTIC....ALTHOUGH AMPLITUDE WILL
SLOWLY WEAKEN TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
SO...THE COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT NWD AND BE ME
REPLACES MORE LOW LVL MOISTURE AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS. THE
TREND WILL BE FOR HIGHS RUNNING NEAR NORMAL...AND MINS SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL. COULD SEE A WAVE MOVE THROUGH THE SW FLOW ALOFT AND
MAYBE BRING A THREAT OF SCT SHRA/TSRA...ESPECIALLY IN THE MTNS.
FOR NOW THIS LOOKS TO BE CENTERED AROUND FRIDAY...AND THEN ANOTHER
ROUND SUN NIGHT INTO MON...AS PERHAPS A MORE SIGNIFICANT WAVE
PUSHES THE 500 TROUGH SWD.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...MAINLY VFR CONDS THE REST OF
THE NIGHT EXCEPT FOR SOME LIFR CONDS IN ANY PATCHY FOG. CONDITIONS
IMPROVE TO VFR FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NGT.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR...EXCEPT FOR EARLY MORNING VLY FOG/WED
THRU SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
WILL CONT THE SCA FOR THE REST OF TNGT AND TUESDAY FOR THE OUTER
WATERS. THE SCA IN THE BAYS WAS DISCONTINUED. EXPECT WINDS OVER
THE OUTER WATERS TO GUST TO SCA LEVELS TNGT AND SEAS TO BUILD TO
SCA LEVELS AS WELL. WINDS DROP OFF FOR TUESDAY BUT SEAS WILL
REMAIN ROUGH THRU THE DAY OVER THE OUTER WATERS. CONDITIONS SHOULD BE
DROPPING BELOW SCA LEVELS TUESDAY NGT.

LONG TERM...PERSISTENT S-SW FLOW COULD CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SOME
SWELL TO NEAR 5 FT WED NIGHT AND THU...BUT OTHERWISE WED THRU SAT.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KGYX 290151
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
951 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK THROUGH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND INTO
EASTERN CANADA TONIGHT. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE OFF THE
COAST TONIGHT THEN REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION THRU THE END OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
945 PM...THE WATCH IS GONE AND THE LAST OF SEVER IS EXITING THE
CWA ATTM. WATCHING A SECOND ROUND OF NON-SEVERE SHRA/TSRAS MOVING
INTO THE CT VLY OF CENTRAL AND NRN NH...ASSOCIATED WITH THE BASE
OF THE UPPER LVL TROUGH. THIS WILL LIFT NE AND COULD EFFECT THE
FOOTHILLS AND MTNS OF BOTH NH AND ME THROUGH ABOUT 5-6Z. WHILE
THERE WAS SOME CLEARING BEHIND THE STORMS...THERE WAS PLENTY OF
RAIN AND LOW FOG TO DEVELOP IN MANY AREAS INLAND...AS WELL AS
COASTAL STRATUS. TDS SHOULD START TO FALL TOO ESPECIALLY IN THE N
BEHIND THE THE 500MB TROUGH...AND IT WILL BE LESS HUMID THAN LAST
NIGHT...BUT NOT STILL A BIT ON THE HUMID SIDE.

750 PM...HAVE EXTENDED THE WATCH FOR AN HOUR UNTIL 9PM IN
ME...AND CANCELED FOR NH.

SVR TSTM WATCH NUMBER 452 IN EFFECT THRU 8 PM FOR ALL OF OUT NH
ZONES AND ALL BUT OUR MOST ERN ZONES IN ME. THREAT IS FOR LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. EVEN AN ISOLATED TORNADO CAN NOT BE RULED
OUT. ALSO...ANY TORRENTIAL RAIN THAT FALLS ON TOP OF SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL THAT HAS ALSO FALLEN COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING.

THE SFC LOW TRACKS TO THE N NE MOVING ACROSS NH AND FAR NW MAINE
THEN INTO ERN CANADA TNGT. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WORKS ITS WAY E
ACROSS THE FCST AREA...PUSHING JUST OFFSHORE BY DAYBREAK.

THE LOW AND FNT PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR THE SHRA/TSTM ACTIVITY. VERY
MOIST AIR IN PLACE AS INDICATED BY SFC DEW POINTS...850 MB DEW
POINTS AND PWAT VALUES. THIS SUPPORTS THE HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL
INTO THIS EVE. INSTABILITY AND SPEED AND DIRECTIONAL SHEAR ALONG
WITH DYNAMICS FROM STRONG UPPER LVL TROF LIFTING OUT TO THE NE
ACROSS THE REGION PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR SVR CONVECTION.

AFTER THIS EVE...STILL SHRA AND MAYBE A TSTM AROUND WITH PASSAGE
OF FNT. DUE TO ALL THE RECENT RAINFALL SHOULD BE AREAS OF DENSE
F AROUND...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS AHEAD OF THE FNT. THE FNT IS
FOLLOWED BY A WIND SHIFT TO THE W NW BUT WINDS MAY NOT PICK UP
ENOUGH TO SCOUR OUT THE LOW LVL MOISTURE AND F.

USED A BLEND OF MODELS AND MOS GUIDANCE FOR THE NEAR TERM FCST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS THE SFC LOW MOVES WELL INTO ERN CANADA THE UPPER LVL FLOW
REMAINS FROM THE SW AS AN UPPER LVL CUTOFF LOW REMAINS OVER OR
JUST N OF THE GREAT LAKES. THIS KEEPS THE SFC COLD FNT FROM MOVING
MUCH MORE TO THE E...IN FACT IN MAY MOVE BACK TO THE W. THE FNT IS
WEAKENING AND WILL THEREFORE NOT PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR ANY PRCP...
ESPECIALLY WITH DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION
AS THE DRY WEDGE WRAPS ALL THE WAY AROUND THE UPPER LVL CUTOFF LOW
AND UP THE ERN SEABOARD. HIGHS IN THE 70S ON TUESDAY AS DEW POINTS
DROP INTO THE 50S. THIS LEADS TO COOL OVERNIGHT LOWS TUESDAY NGT
     FROM THE 40S N TO THE 50S S.

USED A BLEND OF MODELS AND MOS GUIDANCE FOR THE SHORT TERM FCST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
500 MULTIPLE OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN WILL HOLD FROM THE PACIFIC EWD
ACROSS THE CONUS AND INTO THE ATLANTIC....ALTHOUGH AMPLITUDE WILL
SLOWLY WEAKEN TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
SO...THE COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT NWD AND BE ME
REPLACES MORE LOW LVL MOISTURE AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS. THE
TREND WILL BE FOR HIGHS RUNNING NEAR NORMAL...AND MINS SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL. COULD SEE A WAVE MOVE THROUGH THE SW FLOW ALOFT AND
MAYBE BRING A THREAT OF SCT SHRA/TSRA...ESPECIALLY IN THE MTNS.
FOR NOW THIS LOOKS TO BE CENTERED AROUND FRIDAY...AND THEN ANOTHER
ROUND SUN NIGHT INTO MON...AS PERHAPS A MORE SIGNIFICANT WAVE
PUSHES THE 500 TROUGH SWD.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...VARIABLE CONDITIONS FROM MVFR
TO LIFR THRU THE NGT DUE TO SHRA/TSTM ACTIVITY WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR SVR TSTMS THRU 8 PM THIS EVE. AREAS OF F AROUND NRN/ERN AREAS
WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR
FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NGT.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR...EXCEPT FOR EARLY MORNING VLY FOG/WED
THRU SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
WILL CONT THE SCA FOR TNGT AND TUESDAY. EXPECT WINDS TO GUST TO
SCA LEVELS TNGT AND SEAS TO BUILD TO SCA LEVELS AS WELL. WINDS
DROP OFF FOR TUESDAY BUT SEAS WILL REMAIN ROUGH THRU THE DAY.
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE DROPPING BELOW SCA LEVELS TUESDAY NGT.

LONG TERM...PERSISTENT S-SW FLOW COULD CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SOME
SWELL TO NEAR 5 FT WED NIGHT AND THU...BUT OTHERWISE WED THRU SAT.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...







000
FXUS61 KGYX 290151
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
951 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK THROUGH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND INTO
EASTERN CANADA TONIGHT. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE OFF THE
COAST TONIGHT THEN REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION THRU THE END OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
945 PM...THE WATCH IS GONE AND THE LAST OF SEVER IS EXITING THE
CWA ATTM. WATCHING A SECOND ROUND OF NON-SEVERE SHRA/TSRAS MOVING
INTO THE CT VLY OF CENTRAL AND NRN NH...ASSOCIATED WITH THE BASE
OF THE UPPER LVL TROUGH. THIS WILL LIFT NE AND COULD EFFECT THE
FOOTHILLS AND MTNS OF BOTH NH AND ME THROUGH ABOUT 5-6Z. WHILE
THERE WAS SOME CLEARING BEHIND THE STORMS...THERE WAS PLENTY OF
RAIN AND LOW FOG TO DEVELOP IN MANY AREAS INLAND...AS WELL AS
COASTAL STRATUS. TDS SHOULD START TO FALL TOO ESPECIALLY IN THE N
BEHIND THE THE 500MB TROUGH...AND IT WILL BE LESS HUMID THAN LAST
NIGHT...BUT NOT STILL A BIT ON THE HUMID SIDE.

750 PM...HAVE EXTENDED THE WATCH FOR AN HOUR UNTIL 9PM IN
ME...AND CANCELED FOR NH.

SVR TSTM WATCH NUMBER 452 IN EFFECT THRU 8 PM FOR ALL OF OUT NH
ZONES AND ALL BUT OUR MOST ERN ZONES IN ME. THREAT IS FOR LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. EVEN AN ISOLATED TORNADO CAN NOT BE RULED
OUT. ALSO...ANY TORRENTIAL RAIN THAT FALLS ON TOP OF SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL THAT HAS ALSO FALLEN COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING.

THE SFC LOW TRACKS TO THE N NE MOVING ACROSS NH AND FAR NW MAINE
THEN INTO ERN CANADA TNGT. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WORKS ITS WAY E
ACROSS THE FCST AREA...PUSHING JUST OFFSHORE BY DAYBREAK.

THE LOW AND FNT PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR THE SHRA/TSTM ACTIVITY. VERY
MOIST AIR IN PLACE AS INDICATED BY SFC DEW POINTS...850 MB DEW
POINTS AND PWAT VALUES. THIS SUPPORTS THE HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL
INTO THIS EVE. INSTABILITY AND SPEED AND DIRECTIONAL SHEAR ALONG
WITH DYNAMICS FROM STRONG UPPER LVL TROF LIFTING OUT TO THE NE
ACROSS THE REGION PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR SVR CONVECTION.

AFTER THIS EVE...STILL SHRA AND MAYBE A TSTM AROUND WITH PASSAGE
OF FNT. DUE TO ALL THE RECENT RAINFALL SHOULD BE AREAS OF DENSE
F AROUND...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS AHEAD OF THE FNT. THE FNT IS
FOLLOWED BY A WIND SHIFT TO THE W NW BUT WINDS MAY NOT PICK UP
ENOUGH TO SCOUR OUT THE LOW LVL MOISTURE AND F.

USED A BLEND OF MODELS AND MOS GUIDANCE FOR THE NEAR TERM FCST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS THE SFC LOW MOVES WELL INTO ERN CANADA THE UPPER LVL FLOW
REMAINS FROM THE SW AS AN UPPER LVL CUTOFF LOW REMAINS OVER OR
JUST N OF THE GREAT LAKES. THIS KEEPS THE SFC COLD FNT FROM MOVING
MUCH MORE TO THE E...IN FACT IN MAY MOVE BACK TO THE W. THE FNT IS
WEAKENING AND WILL THEREFORE NOT PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR ANY PRCP...
ESPECIALLY WITH DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION
AS THE DRY WEDGE WRAPS ALL THE WAY AROUND THE UPPER LVL CUTOFF LOW
AND UP THE ERN SEABOARD. HIGHS IN THE 70S ON TUESDAY AS DEW POINTS
DROP INTO THE 50S. THIS LEADS TO COOL OVERNIGHT LOWS TUESDAY NGT
     FROM THE 40S N TO THE 50S S.

USED A BLEND OF MODELS AND MOS GUIDANCE FOR THE SHORT TERM FCST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
500 MULTIPLE OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN WILL HOLD FROM THE PACIFIC EWD
ACROSS THE CONUS AND INTO THE ATLANTIC....ALTHOUGH AMPLITUDE WILL
SLOWLY WEAKEN TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
SO...THE COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT NWD AND BE ME
REPLACES MORE LOW LVL MOISTURE AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS. THE
TREND WILL BE FOR HIGHS RUNNING NEAR NORMAL...AND MINS SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL. COULD SEE A WAVE MOVE THROUGH THE SW FLOW ALOFT AND
MAYBE BRING A THREAT OF SCT SHRA/TSRA...ESPECIALLY IN THE MTNS.
FOR NOW THIS LOOKS TO BE CENTERED AROUND FRIDAY...AND THEN ANOTHER
ROUND SUN NIGHT INTO MON...AS PERHAPS A MORE SIGNIFICANT WAVE
PUSHES THE 500 TROUGH SWD.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...VARIABLE CONDITIONS FROM MVFR
TO LIFR THRU THE NGT DUE TO SHRA/TSTM ACTIVITY WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR SVR TSTMS THRU 8 PM THIS EVE. AREAS OF F AROUND NRN/ERN AREAS
WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR
FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NGT.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR...EXCEPT FOR EARLY MORNING VLY FOG/WED
THRU SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
WILL CONT THE SCA FOR TNGT AND TUESDAY. EXPECT WINDS TO GUST TO
SCA LEVELS TNGT AND SEAS TO BUILD TO SCA LEVELS AS WELL. WINDS
DROP OFF FOR TUESDAY BUT SEAS WILL REMAIN ROUGH THRU THE DAY.
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE DROPPING BELOW SCA LEVELS TUESDAY NGT.

LONG TERM...PERSISTENT S-SW FLOW COULD CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SOME
SWELL TO NEAR 5 FT WED NIGHT AND THU...BUT OTHERWISE WED THRU SAT.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...






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