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000
FXUS61 KCAR 190036
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
736 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL EXIT ACROSS THE MARITIMES TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL SLOWLY BUILD TOWARD THE AREA
THROUGH SATURDAY...AND REMAIN OVER THE AREA INTO MONDAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPDATE...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE GULF OF SAINT LAWRENCE TOWARD
NEWFOUNDLAND TONIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW WILL
PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION EARLY TONIGHT...PARTICULARLY NORTHERN
AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. ANY ADDITIONAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE AN INCH OR LESS. SNOW
SHOWERS WILL THEN DECREASE OVERNIGHT LEAVING CLOUDY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S NORTH...TO THE MID TO
UPPER 20S DOWNEAST. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADJUST FOR
CURRENT CONDITIONS ALONG WITH EXPECTED OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES AND
CLOUD COVER.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LOW PRESSURE THAT WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR OUR LATEST WINTER STORM
WILL LIFT OUT TO THE NORTHEAST AND INTO THE FAR NW ATLANTIC
FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL VERY SLOWLY
BUILD TOWARD THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. CLOUDS AND FLURRIES OR
ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS THE CROWN OF MAINE
WILL LIKELY GIVE WAY TO A FEW BREAKS OF SUNSHINE IN THE AFTERNOON.
DOWNEAST AREAS SHOULD BE P/SUNNY. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM
THE MID TO UPPER 20S ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE TO THE LOW 30S IN THE
BANGOR AREA.
&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SURFACE/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE DURING THIS PERIOD WILL
BE CLOUD COVER AND NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES AS THERE ARE INDICATIONS
THAT MOISTURE WILL GET TRAPPED BELOW DEVELOPING SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION LATER FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. HAVE FOLLOWED THE LEAD
OF PREVIOUS SHIFTS AND LEANED WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER
FOR LATER FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY BASED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS
(ESPECIALLY THE NAM)SHOWING SHALLOW MOISTURE LAYER BENEATH THE
INVERSION. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT MAY FALL INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS BEFORE CLOUDS BUILD IN TOWARD SATURDAY MORNING. SOUNDINGS
SHOW CLOUDS MAY HANG TUFF RIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS ONCE AGAIN WILL
RESULT IN A TRICKY LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. IF
CLOUDS HANG IN TEMPERATURES MAY BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN
FORECASTED SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE SURFACE/UPPER RIDGES WILL SHIFT EAST SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL
APPROACH THE AREA CHRISTMAS EVE. APPEARS THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE
MORE WET THAN WHITE AS LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS LOW PRESSURE PASSING
OFF TO OUR WEST LATER CHRISTMAS EVE THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY.
ALTHOUGH WE MAY SEE THE PRECIPITATION START AS SNOW INITIALLY IT
SHOULD QUICKLY CHANGE TO RAIN ALL AREAS BY LATER CHRISTMAS EVE.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD SHOULD BE ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VARIABLE CONDITIONS RANGING FROM VFR TO IFR WILL OCCUR
ACROSS THE REGION EARLY TONIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL THEN IMPROVE TO
VFR LEVELS DOWNEAST...WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS PERSISTING
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS OVERNIGHT. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS EARLY FRIDAY. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY.

SHORT TERM: MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER FRIDAY
NIGHT AND POSSIBLY CONTINUE AT TIMES RIGHT INTO SUNDAY ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
MONDAY...WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TUESDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT ACROSS THE
WATERS TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN
FALL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
VISIBILITIES COULD BE REDUCED IN ANY RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS EARLY
TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: WIND/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH TUESDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED BY MID WEEK AS THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
&&

.CLIMATE...
A TOTAL OF 11.3 INCHES OF SNOW AT WFO CARIBOU AS OF 1
PM. THE SEASONAL TOTAL IS NOW UP TO 53.4 INCHES...WHICH RANKS AS
THE 3RD SNOWIEST WINTER SEASON TO DATE BEHIND ONLY 1972 AND 2007.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...NORCROSS/CB
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...NORCROSS/DUDA
MARINE...NORCROSS/DUDA
CLIMATE...CB



000
FXUS61 KCAR 190036
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
736 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL EXIT ACROSS THE MARITIMES TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL SLOWLY BUILD TOWARD THE AREA
THROUGH SATURDAY...AND REMAIN OVER THE AREA INTO MONDAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPDATE...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE GULF OF SAINT LAWRENCE TOWARD
NEWFOUNDLAND TONIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW WILL
PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION EARLY TONIGHT...PARTICULARLY NORTHERN
AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. ANY ADDITIONAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE AN INCH OR LESS. SNOW
SHOWERS WILL THEN DECREASE OVERNIGHT LEAVING CLOUDY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S NORTH...TO THE MID TO
UPPER 20S DOWNEAST. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADJUST FOR
CURRENT CONDITIONS ALONG WITH EXPECTED OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES AND
CLOUD COVER.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LOW PRESSURE THAT WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR OUR LATEST WINTER STORM
WILL LIFT OUT TO THE NORTHEAST AND INTO THE FAR NW ATLANTIC
FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL VERY SLOWLY
BUILD TOWARD THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. CLOUDS AND FLURRIES OR
ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS THE CROWN OF MAINE
WILL LIKELY GIVE WAY TO A FEW BREAKS OF SUNSHINE IN THE AFTERNOON.
DOWNEAST AREAS SHOULD BE P/SUNNY. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM
THE MID TO UPPER 20S ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE TO THE LOW 30S IN THE
BANGOR AREA.
&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SURFACE/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE DURING THIS PERIOD WILL
BE CLOUD COVER AND NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES AS THERE ARE INDICATIONS
THAT MOISTURE WILL GET TRAPPED BELOW DEVELOPING SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION LATER FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. HAVE FOLLOWED THE LEAD
OF PREVIOUS SHIFTS AND LEANED WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER
FOR LATER FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY BASED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS
(ESPECIALLY THE NAM)SHOWING SHALLOW MOISTURE LAYER BENEATH THE
INVERSION. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT MAY FALL INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS BEFORE CLOUDS BUILD IN TOWARD SATURDAY MORNING. SOUNDINGS
SHOW CLOUDS MAY HANG TUFF RIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS ONCE AGAIN WILL
RESULT IN A TRICKY LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. IF
CLOUDS HANG IN TEMPERATURES MAY BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN
FORECASTED SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE SURFACE/UPPER RIDGES WILL SHIFT EAST SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL
APPROACH THE AREA CHRISTMAS EVE. APPEARS THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE
MORE WET THAN WHITE AS LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS LOW PRESSURE PASSING
OFF TO OUR WEST LATER CHRISTMAS EVE THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY.
ALTHOUGH WE MAY SEE THE PRECIPITATION START AS SNOW INITIALLY IT
SHOULD QUICKLY CHANGE TO RAIN ALL AREAS BY LATER CHRISTMAS EVE.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD SHOULD BE ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VARIABLE CONDITIONS RANGING FROM VFR TO IFR WILL OCCUR
ACROSS THE REGION EARLY TONIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL THEN IMPROVE TO
VFR LEVELS DOWNEAST...WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS PERSISTING
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS OVERNIGHT. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS EARLY FRIDAY. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY.

SHORT TERM: MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER FRIDAY
NIGHT AND POSSIBLY CONTINUE AT TIMES RIGHT INTO SUNDAY ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
MONDAY...WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TUESDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT ACROSS THE
WATERS TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN
FALL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
VISIBILITIES COULD BE REDUCED IN ANY RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS EARLY
TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: WIND/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH TUESDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED BY MID WEEK AS THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
&&

.CLIMATE...
A TOTAL OF 11.3 INCHES OF SNOW AT WFO CARIBOU AS OF 1
PM. THE SEASONAL TOTAL IS NOW UP TO 53.4 INCHES...WHICH RANKS AS
THE 3RD SNOWIEST WINTER SEASON TO DATE BEHIND ONLY 1972 AND 2007.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...NORCROSS/CB
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...NORCROSS/DUDA
MARINE...NORCROSS/DUDA
CLIMATE...CB



000
FXUS61 KCAR 190036
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
736 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL EXIT ACROSS THE MARITIMES TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL SLOWLY BUILD TOWARD THE AREA
THROUGH SATURDAY...AND REMAIN OVER THE AREA INTO MONDAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPDATE...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE GULF OF SAINT LAWRENCE TOWARD
NEWFOUNDLAND TONIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW WILL
PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION EARLY TONIGHT...PARTICULARLY NORTHERN
AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. ANY ADDITIONAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE AN INCH OR LESS. SNOW
SHOWERS WILL THEN DECREASE OVERNIGHT LEAVING CLOUDY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S NORTH...TO THE MID TO
UPPER 20S DOWNEAST. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADJUST FOR
CURRENT CONDITIONS ALONG WITH EXPECTED OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES AND
CLOUD COVER.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LOW PRESSURE THAT WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR OUR LATEST WINTER STORM
WILL LIFT OUT TO THE NORTHEAST AND INTO THE FAR NW ATLANTIC
FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL VERY SLOWLY
BUILD TOWARD THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. CLOUDS AND FLURRIES OR
ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS THE CROWN OF MAINE
WILL LIKELY GIVE WAY TO A FEW BREAKS OF SUNSHINE IN THE AFTERNOON.
DOWNEAST AREAS SHOULD BE P/SUNNY. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM
THE MID TO UPPER 20S ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE TO THE LOW 30S IN THE
BANGOR AREA.
&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SURFACE/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE DURING THIS PERIOD WILL
BE CLOUD COVER AND NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES AS THERE ARE INDICATIONS
THAT MOISTURE WILL GET TRAPPED BELOW DEVELOPING SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION LATER FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. HAVE FOLLOWED THE LEAD
OF PREVIOUS SHIFTS AND LEANED WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER
FOR LATER FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY BASED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS
(ESPECIALLY THE NAM)SHOWING SHALLOW MOISTURE LAYER BENEATH THE
INVERSION. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT MAY FALL INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS BEFORE CLOUDS BUILD IN TOWARD SATURDAY MORNING. SOUNDINGS
SHOW CLOUDS MAY HANG TUFF RIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS ONCE AGAIN WILL
RESULT IN A TRICKY LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. IF
CLOUDS HANG IN TEMPERATURES MAY BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN
FORECASTED SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE SURFACE/UPPER RIDGES WILL SHIFT EAST SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL
APPROACH THE AREA CHRISTMAS EVE. APPEARS THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE
MORE WET THAN WHITE AS LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS LOW PRESSURE PASSING
OFF TO OUR WEST LATER CHRISTMAS EVE THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY.
ALTHOUGH WE MAY SEE THE PRECIPITATION START AS SNOW INITIALLY IT
SHOULD QUICKLY CHANGE TO RAIN ALL AREAS BY LATER CHRISTMAS EVE.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD SHOULD BE ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VARIABLE CONDITIONS RANGING FROM VFR TO IFR WILL OCCUR
ACROSS THE REGION EARLY TONIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL THEN IMPROVE TO
VFR LEVELS DOWNEAST...WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS PERSISTING
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS OVERNIGHT. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS EARLY FRIDAY. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY.

SHORT TERM: MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER FRIDAY
NIGHT AND POSSIBLY CONTINUE AT TIMES RIGHT INTO SUNDAY ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
MONDAY...WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TUESDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT ACROSS THE
WATERS TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN
FALL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
VISIBILITIES COULD BE REDUCED IN ANY RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS EARLY
TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: WIND/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH TUESDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED BY MID WEEK AS THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
&&

.CLIMATE...
A TOTAL OF 11.3 INCHES OF SNOW AT WFO CARIBOU AS OF 1
PM. THE SEASONAL TOTAL IS NOW UP TO 53.4 INCHES...WHICH RANKS AS
THE 3RD SNOWIEST WINTER SEASON TO DATE BEHIND ONLY 1972 AND 2007.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...NORCROSS/CB
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...NORCROSS/DUDA
MARINE...NORCROSS/DUDA
CLIMATE...CB



000
FXUS61 KCAR 190036
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
736 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL EXIT ACROSS THE MARITIMES TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL SLOWLY BUILD TOWARD THE AREA
THROUGH SATURDAY...AND REMAIN OVER THE AREA INTO MONDAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPDATE...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE GULF OF SAINT LAWRENCE TOWARD
NEWFOUNDLAND TONIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW WILL
PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION EARLY TONIGHT...PARTICULARLY NORTHERN
AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. ANY ADDITIONAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE AN INCH OR LESS. SNOW
SHOWERS WILL THEN DECREASE OVERNIGHT LEAVING CLOUDY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S NORTH...TO THE MID TO
UPPER 20S DOWNEAST. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADJUST FOR
CURRENT CONDITIONS ALONG WITH EXPECTED OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES AND
CLOUD COVER.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LOW PRESSURE THAT WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR OUR LATEST WINTER STORM
WILL LIFT OUT TO THE NORTHEAST AND INTO THE FAR NW ATLANTIC
FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL VERY SLOWLY
BUILD TOWARD THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. CLOUDS AND FLURRIES OR
ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS THE CROWN OF MAINE
WILL LIKELY GIVE WAY TO A FEW BREAKS OF SUNSHINE IN THE AFTERNOON.
DOWNEAST AREAS SHOULD BE P/SUNNY. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM
THE MID TO UPPER 20S ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE TO THE LOW 30S IN THE
BANGOR AREA.
&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SURFACE/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE DURING THIS PERIOD WILL
BE CLOUD COVER AND NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES AS THERE ARE INDICATIONS
THAT MOISTURE WILL GET TRAPPED BELOW DEVELOPING SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION LATER FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. HAVE FOLLOWED THE LEAD
OF PREVIOUS SHIFTS AND LEANED WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER
FOR LATER FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY BASED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS
(ESPECIALLY THE NAM)SHOWING SHALLOW MOISTURE LAYER BENEATH THE
INVERSION. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT MAY FALL INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS BEFORE CLOUDS BUILD IN TOWARD SATURDAY MORNING. SOUNDINGS
SHOW CLOUDS MAY HANG TUFF RIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS ONCE AGAIN WILL
RESULT IN A TRICKY LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. IF
CLOUDS HANG IN TEMPERATURES MAY BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN
FORECASTED SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE SURFACE/UPPER RIDGES WILL SHIFT EAST SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL
APPROACH THE AREA CHRISTMAS EVE. APPEARS THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE
MORE WET THAN WHITE AS LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS LOW PRESSURE PASSING
OFF TO OUR WEST LATER CHRISTMAS EVE THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY.
ALTHOUGH WE MAY SEE THE PRECIPITATION START AS SNOW INITIALLY IT
SHOULD QUICKLY CHANGE TO RAIN ALL AREAS BY LATER CHRISTMAS EVE.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD SHOULD BE ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VARIABLE CONDITIONS RANGING FROM VFR TO IFR WILL OCCUR
ACROSS THE REGION EARLY TONIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL THEN IMPROVE TO
VFR LEVELS DOWNEAST...WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS PERSISTING
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS OVERNIGHT. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS EARLY FRIDAY. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY.

SHORT TERM: MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER FRIDAY
NIGHT AND POSSIBLY CONTINUE AT TIMES RIGHT INTO SUNDAY ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
MONDAY...WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TUESDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT ACROSS THE
WATERS TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN
FALL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
VISIBILITIES COULD BE REDUCED IN ANY RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS EARLY
TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: WIND/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH TUESDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED BY MID WEEK AS THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
&&

.CLIMATE...
A TOTAL OF 11.3 INCHES OF SNOW AT WFO CARIBOU AS OF 1
PM. THE SEASONAL TOTAL IS NOW UP TO 53.4 INCHES...WHICH RANKS AS
THE 3RD SNOWIEST WINTER SEASON TO DATE BEHIND ONLY 1972 AND 2007.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...NORCROSS/CB
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...NORCROSS/DUDA
MARINE...NORCROSS/DUDA
CLIMATE...CB


  [top]

000
FXUS61 KGYX 190035
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
735 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD IN THIS EVENING. SOME
OCEAN EFFECT SNOW MAY BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY DUE TO ONSHORE
FLOW. A WEAK LOW WILL LIKELY STRENGTHEN AND PASS TO OUR WEST
TUESDAY AND MAY SPREAD LIGHT PRECIP INTO NEW ENGLAND. AN STRONGER
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOST LIKELY DEVELOP OFF TO OUR WEST ON
WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY BRING HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS WEDNESDAY
AND INTO CHRISTMAS MORNING.

&&
00Z UPDATE...
NOT MUCH HAPPENING AROUND THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. HAVE
UPDATED TEMPS AND SKY CONDITION TO REFLECT PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER
AND RESULTING WARMER THAN EXPECT TEMPS. HAVE ALSO ADJUSTED POPS IN
THE MOUNTAINS DOWNWARD BUT STILL CARRYING LOW CHANCE POPS FOR ANY
LINGERING FLURRIES. EXPECT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO CONTINUE
DIMINISHING IN SOUTHERN AND COASTAL ZONES THROUGH MIDNIGHT. NO
OTHER CHANGES PLANNED ATTM.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
BLOCKED UPSLOPE SIGNAL IS PRETTY STRONG CURRENTLY...WITH KHIE
DROPPING BELOW 2SM VSBY. THIS IS USUALLY A PRETTY GOOD INDICATOR
OF HEAVIER SNWFL HEADING INTO NRN COOS COUNTY. SUSPECT A SIMILAR
STORY EWD INTO THE WRN ME MTNS. WITH FROUDE NUMBERS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE FALLING THRU THE EVENING...WILL KEEP POP CONFINED TO THE
NW SIDE OF THE MTN TOPS. SNWFL GRIDS LOOK IN GOOD SHAPE...WITH
ADDITIONAL LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. HOWEVER SINCE EVENT HAS
TRANSITIONED TO MOSTLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN LOCALIZED FAVORED
AREAS...WINTER WX ADVISORIES WILL BE CANCELLED.

CLOUD COVER SHOULD HANG TOUGH TONIGHT...AND GRADIENT WILL REMAIN
UP JUST ENOUGH TO KEEP A LIGHT BREEZE GOING. AS SUCH I HAVE
BLENDED IN MESOSCALE MODEL 2 M TEMP GUIDANCE...AS WE SHOULDN/T
REALLY SEE MUCH IF ANY RADIATIONAL COOLING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
UPSLOPE SHSN GRADUALLY TAPER OFF AS LIFT OVER THE TERRAIN
DECREASES DUE TO THE APPROACHING RIDGE. AS RIDGE MOVES IN ALOFT A
BIT OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE LOOKS LIKE IT MAY GET TRAPPED AND SINK
SWD ACROSS THE CWFA DURING THE DAY. THE LATEST NAM...GFS...AND CMC
DO INDICATE AT LEAST PARTIAL CLOUD COVER...SO HAVE BLENDED THESE
MODELS INTO THE LATEST SKY GRIDS. OTHERWISE THE SENSIBLE WX SHOULD
BE QUIET FRI.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE REGION DURING THE DAY
ON SATURDAY AND THEN SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL
SET UP RETURN FLOW FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS MAY PRODUCE SOME
OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS BUT AMOUNTS SHOULD BE VERY LIMITED.

CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT NEW ENGLAND WEATHER AS EARLY AS TUESDAY
NIGHT. WEAK DISTURBANCE GETS EJECTED FROM THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE SURFACE REFLECTION OF
THIS MAY ONLY BE A TROUGH BUT DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT WILL PROVIDE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR SOME FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RAIN. THE LARGER
EVENT GETS GOING LATER IN THE DAY AS A SECONDARY SURFACE LOW
BEGINS TO DEVELOP. MODELS ARE DIFFERING A BIT WITH THE DETAILS AS
THE GFS KEEPS THE SURFACE LOW FURTHER EAST AND THE EURO TAKES IT
WEST OF US OVER VERMONT. GIVEN THE WESTWARD EXTENT OF THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW...THE EXPECTATION IS THAT THE EURO HAS A BETTER HANDLE
ON THE SURFACE LOW. THE CURRENT TRACK WOULD TAKE IT WEST OF US AND
KEEP ALL OF NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE STORM.
THE SYSTEM LOOKS LIKE IT COULD GENERATE A LARGE AMOUNT OF
PRECIPITATION...WITH MOST OF IT IN THE FORM OF RAIN FOR THURSDAY.
AS THE STORM WINDS UP IT WILL LIKELY PRODUCE SOME STRONG WINDS AS
WELL.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...AREAS OF MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
OVERNIGHT...GRADUALLY LIFTING AND SCATTERING OUT TO VFR. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE NW FACING HIGHER TERRAIN...WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW
WILL KEEP MVFR CIGS LOCKED IN PLACE INTO FRI. IN ADDITION...SCT
IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE INVOF KHIE WHERE SHSN WILL CONTINUE IN
THE UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME. THESE SHSN TAPER OFF EARLY FRI...AND VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD.

LONG TERM...PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE REGION. ONSHORE FLOW
LATE SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY COULD PRODUCE SOME IFR CIGS AND REDUCED
VISIBILITY IN OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SCA CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRI MORNING. WIND
GUSTS NEAR 25 KTS AND SEAS AROUND 5 FT ON THE OUTER WATERS WILL
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE EARLY FRI.

LONG TERM...WILL LIKELY NEED FLAGS OVER THE WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT
AND THEN THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KGYX 190035
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
735 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD IN THIS EVENING. SOME
OCEAN EFFECT SNOW MAY BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY DUE TO ONSHORE
FLOW. A WEAK LOW WILL LIKELY STRENGTHEN AND PASS TO OUR WEST
TUESDAY AND MAY SPREAD LIGHT PRECIP INTO NEW ENGLAND. AN STRONGER
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOST LIKELY DEVELOP OFF TO OUR WEST ON
WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY BRING HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS WEDNESDAY
AND INTO CHRISTMAS MORNING.

&&
00Z UPDATE...
NOT MUCH HAPPENING AROUND THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. HAVE
UPDATED TEMPS AND SKY CONDITION TO REFLECT PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER
AND RESULTING WARMER THAN EXPECT TEMPS. HAVE ALSO ADJUSTED POPS IN
THE MOUNTAINS DOWNWARD BUT STILL CARRYING LOW CHANCE POPS FOR ANY
LINGERING FLURRIES. EXPECT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO CONTINUE
DIMINISHING IN SOUTHERN AND COASTAL ZONES THROUGH MIDNIGHT. NO
OTHER CHANGES PLANNED ATTM.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
BLOCKED UPSLOPE SIGNAL IS PRETTY STRONG CURRENTLY...WITH KHIE
DROPPING BELOW 2SM VSBY. THIS IS USUALLY A PRETTY GOOD INDICATOR
OF HEAVIER SNWFL HEADING INTO NRN COOS COUNTY. SUSPECT A SIMILAR
STORY EWD INTO THE WRN ME MTNS. WITH FROUDE NUMBERS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE FALLING THRU THE EVENING...WILL KEEP POP CONFINED TO THE
NW SIDE OF THE MTN TOPS. SNWFL GRIDS LOOK IN GOOD SHAPE...WITH
ADDITIONAL LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. HOWEVER SINCE EVENT HAS
TRANSITIONED TO MOSTLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN LOCALIZED FAVORED
AREAS...WINTER WX ADVISORIES WILL BE CANCELLED.

CLOUD COVER SHOULD HANG TOUGH TONIGHT...AND GRADIENT WILL REMAIN
UP JUST ENOUGH TO KEEP A LIGHT BREEZE GOING. AS SUCH I HAVE
BLENDED IN MESOSCALE MODEL 2 M TEMP GUIDANCE...AS WE SHOULDN/T
REALLY SEE MUCH IF ANY RADIATIONAL COOLING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
UPSLOPE SHSN GRADUALLY TAPER OFF AS LIFT OVER THE TERRAIN
DECREASES DUE TO THE APPROACHING RIDGE. AS RIDGE MOVES IN ALOFT A
BIT OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE LOOKS LIKE IT MAY GET TRAPPED AND SINK
SWD ACROSS THE CWFA DURING THE DAY. THE LATEST NAM...GFS...AND CMC
DO INDICATE AT LEAST PARTIAL CLOUD COVER...SO HAVE BLENDED THESE
MODELS INTO THE LATEST SKY GRIDS. OTHERWISE THE SENSIBLE WX SHOULD
BE QUIET FRI.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE REGION DURING THE DAY
ON SATURDAY AND THEN SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL
SET UP RETURN FLOW FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS MAY PRODUCE SOME
OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS BUT AMOUNTS SHOULD BE VERY LIMITED.

CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT NEW ENGLAND WEATHER AS EARLY AS TUESDAY
NIGHT. WEAK DISTURBANCE GETS EJECTED FROM THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE SURFACE REFLECTION OF
THIS MAY ONLY BE A TROUGH BUT DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT WILL PROVIDE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR SOME FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RAIN. THE LARGER
EVENT GETS GOING LATER IN THE DAY AS A SECONDARY SURFACE LOW
BEGINS TO DEVELOP. MODELS ARE DIFFERING A BIT WITH THE DETAILS AS
THE GFS KEEPS THE SURFACE LOW FURTHER EAST AND THE EURO TAKES IT
WEST OF US OVER VERMONT. GIVEN THE WESTWARD EXTENT OF THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW...THE EXPECTATION IS THAT THE EURO HAS A BETTER HANDLE
ON THE SURFACE LOW. THE CURRENT TRACK WOULD TAKE IT WEST OF US AND
KEEP ALL OF NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE STORM.
THE SYSTEM LOOKS LIKE IT COULD GENERATE A LARGE AMOUNT OF
PRECIPITATION...WITH MOST OF IT IN THE FORM OF RAIN FOR THURSDAY.
AS THE STORM WINDS UP IT WILL LIKELY PRODUCE SOME STRONG WINDS AS
WELL.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...AREAS OF MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
OVERNIGHT...GRADUALLY LIFTING AND SCATTERING OUT TO VFR. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE NW FACING HIGHER TERRAIN...WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW
WILL KEEP MVFR CIGS LOCKED IN PLACE INTO FRI. IN ADDITION...SCT
IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE INVOF KHIE WHERE SHSN WILL CONTINUE IN
THE UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME. THESE SHSN TAPER OFF EARLY FRI...AND VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD.

LONG TERM...PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE REGION. ONSHORE FLOW
LATE SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY COULD PRODUCE SOME IFR CIGS AND REDUCED
VISIBILITY IN OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SCA CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRI MORNING. WIND
GUSTS NEAR 25 KTS AND SEAS AROUND 5 FT ON THE OUTER WATERS WILL
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE EARLY FRI.

LONG TERM...WILL LIKELY NEED FLAGS OVER THE WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT
AND THEN THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KGYX 190035
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
735 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD IN THIS EVENING. SOME
OCEAN EFFECT SNOW MAY BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY DUE TO ONSHORE
FLOW. A WEAK LOW WILL LIKELY STRENGTHEN AND PASS TO OUR WEST
TUESDAY AND MAY SPREAD LIGHT PRECIP INTO NEW ENGLAND. AN STRONGER
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOST LIKELY DEVELOP OFF TO OUR WEST ON
WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY BRING HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS WEDNESDAY
AND INTO CHRISTMAS MORNING.

&&
00Z UPDATE...
NOT MUCH HAPPENING AROUND THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. HAVE
UPDATED TEMPS AND SKY CONDITION TO REFLECT PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER
AND RESULTING WARMER THAN EXPECT TEMPS. HAVE ALSO ADJUSTED POPS IN
THE MOUNTAINS DOWNWARD BUT STILL CARRYING LOW CHANCE POPS FOR ANY
LINGERING FLURRIES. EXPECT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO CONTINUE
DIMINISHING IN SOUTHERN AND COASTAL ZONES THROUGH MIDNIGHT. NO
OTHER CHANGES PLANNED ATTM.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
BLOCKED UPSLOPE SIGNAL IS PRETTY STRONG CURRENTLY...WITH KHIE
DROPPING BELOW 2SM VSBY. THIS IS USUALLY A PRETTY GOOD INDICATOR
OF HEAVIER SNWFL HEADING INTO NRN COOS COUNTY. SUSPECT A SIMILAR
STORY EWD INTO THE WRN ME MTNS. WITH FROUDE NUMBERS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE FALLING THRU THE EVENING...WILL KEEP POP CONFINED TO THE
NW SIDE OF THE MTN TOPS. SNWFL GRIDS LOOK IN GOOD SHAPE...WITH
ADDITIONAL LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. HOWEVER SINCE EVENT HAS
TRANSITIONED TO MOSTLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN LOCALIZED FAVORED
AREAS...WINTER WX ADVISORIES WILL BE CANCELLED.

CLOUD COVER SHOULD HANG TOUGH TONIGHT...AND GRADIENT WILL REMAIN
UP JUST ENOUGH TO KEEP A LIGHT BREEZE GOING. AS SUCH I HAVE
BLENDED IN MESOSCALE MODEL 2 M TEMP GUIDANCE...AS WE SHOULDN/T
REALLY SEE MUCH IF ANY RADIATIONAL COOLING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
UPSLOPE SHSN GRADUALLY TAPER OFF AS LIFT OVER THE TERRAIN
DECREASES DUE TO THE APPROACHING RIDGE. AS RIDGE MOVES IN ALOFT A
BIT OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE LOOKS LIKE IT MAY GET TRAPPED AND SINK
SWD ACROSS THE CWFA DURING THE DAY. THE LATEST NAM...GFS...AND CMC
DO INDICATE AT LEAST PARTIAL CLOUD COVER...SO HAVE BLENDED THESE
MODELS INTO THE LATEST SKY GRIDS. OTHERWISE THE SENSIBLE WX SHOULD
BE QUIET FRI.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE REGION DURING THE DAY
ON SATURDAY AND THEN SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL
SET UP RETURN FLOW FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS MAY PRODUCE SOME
OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS BUT AMOUNTS SHOULD BE VERY LIMITED.

CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT NEW ENGLAND WEATHER AS EARLY AS TUESDAY
NIGHT. WEAK DISTURBANCE GETS EJECTED FROM THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE SURFACE REFLECTION OF
THIS MAY ONLY BE A TROUGH BUT DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT WILL PROVIDE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR SOME FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RAIN. THE LARGER
EVENT GETS GOING LATER IN THE DAY AS A SECONDARY SURFACE LOW
BEGINS TO DEVELOP. MODELS ARE DIFFERING A BIT WITH THE DETAILS AS
THE GFS KEEPS THE SURFACE LOW FURTHER EAST AND THE EURO TAKES IT
WEST OF US OVER VERMONT. GIVEN THE WESTWARD EXTENT OF THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW...THE EXPECTATION IS THAT THE EURO HAS A BETTER HANDLE
ON THE SURFACE LOW. THE CURRENT TRACK WOULD TAKE IT WEST OF US AND
KEEP ALL OF NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE STORM.
THE SYSTEM LOOKS LIKE IT COULD GENERATE A LARGE AMOUNT OF
PRECIPITATION...WITH MOST OF IT IN THE FORM OF RAIN FOR THURSDAY.
AS THE STORM WINDS UP IT WILL LIKELY PRODUCE SOME STRONG WINDS AS
WELL.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...AREAS OF MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
OVERNIGHT...GRADUALLY LIFTING AND SCATTERING OUT TO VFR. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE NW FACING HIGHER TERRAIN...WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW
WILL KEEP MVFR CIGS LOCKED IN PLACE INTO FRI. IN ADDITION...SCT
IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE INVOF KHIE WHERE SHSN WILL CONTINUE IN
THE UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME. THESE SHSN TAPER OFF EARLY FRI...AND VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD.

LONG TERM...PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE REGION. ONSHORE FLOW
LATE SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY COULD PRODUCE SOME IFR CIGS AND REDUCED
VISIBILITY IN OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SCA CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRI MORNING. WIND
GUSTS NEAR 25 KTS AND SEAS AROUND 5 FT ON THE OUTER WATERS WILL
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE EARLY FRI.

LONG TERM...WILL LIKELY NEED FLAGS OVER THE WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT
AND THEN THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KGYX 190035
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
735 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD IN THIS EVENING. SOME
OCEAN EFFECT SNOW MAY BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY DUE TO ONSHORE
FLOW. A WEAK LOW WILL LIKELY STRENGTHEN AND PASS TO OUR WEST
TUESDAY AND MAY SPREAD LIGHT PRECIP INTO NEW ENGLAND. AN STRONGER
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOST LIKELY DEVELOP OFF TO OUR WEST ON
WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY BRING HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS WEDNESDAY
AND INTO CHRISTMAS MORNING.

&&
00Z UPDATE...
NOT MUCH HAPPENING AROUND THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. HAVE
UPDATED TEMPS AND SKY CONDITION TO REFLECT PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER
AND RESULTING WARMER THAN EXPECT TEMPS. HAVE ALSO ADJUSTED POPS IN
THE MOUNTAINS DOWNWARD BUT STILL CARRYING LOW CHANCE POPS FOR ANY
LINGERING FLURRIES. EXPECT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO CONTINUE
DIMINISHING IN SOUTHERN AND COASTAL ZONES THROUGH MIDNIGHT. NO
OTHER CHANGES PLANNED ATTM.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
BLOCKED UPSLOPE SIGNAL IS PRETTY STRONG CURRENTLY...WITH KHIE
DROPPING BELOW 2SM VSBY. THIS IS USUALLY A PRETTY GOOD INDICATOR
OF HEAVIER SNWFL HEADING INTO NRN COOS COUNTY. SUSPECT A SIMILAR
STORY EWD INTO THE WRN ME MTNS. WITH FROUDE NUMBERS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE FALLING THRU THE EVENING...WILL KEEP POP CONFINED TO THE
NW SIDE OF THE MTN TOPS. SNWFL GRIDS LOOK IN GOOD SHAPE...WITH
ADDITIONAL LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. HOWEVER SINCE EVENT HAS
TRANSITIONED TO MOSTLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN LOCALIZED FAVORED
AREAS...WINTER WX ADVISORIES WILL BE CANCELLED.

CLOUD COVER SHOULD HANG TOUGH TONIGHT...AND GRADIENT WILL REMAIN
UP JUST ENOUGH TO KEEP A LIGHT BREEZE GOING. AS SUCH I HAVE
BLENDED IN MESOSCALE MODEL 2 M TEMP GUIDANCE...AS WE SHOULDN/T
REALLY SEE MUCH IF ANY RADIATIONAL COOLING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
UPSLOPE SHSN GRADUALLY TAPER OFF AS LIFT OVER THE TERRAIN
DECREASES DUE TO THE APPROACHING RIDGE. AS RIDGE MOVES IN ALOFT A
BIT OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE LOOKS LIKE IT MAY GET TRAPPED AND SINK
SWD ACROSS THE CWFA DURING THE DAY. THE LATEST NAM...GFS...AND CMC
DO INDICATE AT LEAST PARTIAL CLOUD COVER...SO HAVE BLENDED THESE
MODELS INTO THE LATEST SKY GRIDS. OTHERWISE THE SENSIBLE WX SHOULD
BE QUIET FRI.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE REGION DURING THE DAY
ON SATURDAY AND THEN SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL
SET UP RETURN FLOW FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS MAY PRODUCE SOME
OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS BUT AMOUNTS SHOULD BE VERY LIMITED.

CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT NEW ENGLAND WEATHER AS EARLY AS TUESDAY
NIGHT. WEAK DISTURBANCE GETS EJECTED FROM THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE SURFACE REFLECTION OF
THIS MAY ONLY BE A TROUGH BUT DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT WILL PROVIDE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR SOME FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RAIN. THE LARGER
EVENT GETS GOING LATER IN THE DAY AS A SECONDARY SURFACE LOW
BEGINS TO DEVELOP. MODELS ARE DIFFERING A BIT WITH THE DETAILS AS
THE GFS KEEPS THE SURFACE LOW FURTHER EAST AND THE EURO TAKES IT
WEST OF US OVER VERMONT. GIVEN THE WESTWARD EXTENT OF THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW...THE EXPECTATION IS THAT THE EURO HAS A BETTER HANDLE
ON THE SURFACE LOW. THE CURRENT TRACK WOULD TAKE IT WEST OF US AND
KEEP ALL OF NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE STORM.
THE SYSTEM LOOKS LIKE IT COULD GENERATE A LARGE AMOUNT OF
PRECIPITATION...WITH MOST OF IT IN THE FORM OF RAIN FOR THURSDAY.
AS THE STORM WINDS UP IT WILL LIKELY PRODUCE SOME STRONG WINDS AS
WELL.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...AREAS OF MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
OVERNIGHT...GRADUALLY LIFTING AND SCATTERING OUT TO VFR. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE NW FACING HIGHER TERRAIN...WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW
WILL KEEP MVFR CIGS LOCKED IN PLACE INTO FRI. IN ADDITION...SCT
IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE INVOF KHIE WHERE SHSN WILL CONTINUE IN
THE UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME. THESE SHSN TAPER OFF EARLY FRI...AND VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD.

LONG TERM...PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE REGION. ONSHORE FLOW
LATE SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY COULD PRODUCE SOME IFR CIGS AND REDUCED
VISIBILITY IN OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SCA CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRI MORNING. WIND
GUSTS NEAR 25 KTS AND SEAS AROUND 5 FT ON THE OUTER WATERS WILL
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE EARLY FRI.

LONG TERM...WILL LIKELY NEED FLAGS OVER THE WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT
AND THEN THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KCAR 182027
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
327 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE IN THE MARITIMES WILL SLOWLY PULL AWAY FROM THE
REGION TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL SLOWLY BUILD
TOWARD THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY...AND REMAIN OVER THE AREA INTO
MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS PEI THAT WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR OUR LATEST
WINTER STORM WILL LIFT OUT TO THE NORTHEAST AND INTO THE FAR NW
ATLANTIC FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL VERY
SLOWLY BUILD TOWARD THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. THE FLOW AROUND
THE DEPARTING LOW WILL PRODUCE SOME SNOW THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING ACROSS EASTERN MAINE WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
CONTINUING ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA TONIGHT. ANY
ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL WILL BE AN INCH OR LESS FOR MOST AREAS AND
HAVE ALLOWED THE REMAINING WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES TO EXPIRE.
DOWN SLOPE FLOW WILL ALLOW DOWN EAST AREAS TO SLOWLY DRY OUT
TONIGHT.  CLOUDS AND FLURRIES OR ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY
MORNING ACROSS THE CROWN OF MAINE WILL LIKELY GIVE WAY TO A FEW
BREAKS OF SUNSHINE IN THE AFTERNOON. DOWN EAST AREAS SHOULD BE
P/SUNNY. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE TEENS ACROSS FAR
NORTHWEST MAINE TO AROUND 20 ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF NORTHERN
MAINE WITH MID 20S DOWN EAST. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE
MID TO UPPER 20S ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE TO THE LOW 30S IN THE
BANGOR AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SURFACE/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE DURING THIS PERIOD WILL
BE CLOUD COVER AND NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES AS THERE ARE INDICATIONS
THAT MOISTURE WILL GET TRAPPED BELOW DEVELOPING SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION LATER FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. HAVE FOLLOWED THE LEAD
OF PREVIOUS SHIFTS AND LEANED WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER
FOR LATER FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY BASED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS
(ESPECIALLY THE NAM)SHOWING SHALLOW MOISTURE LAYER BENEATH THE
INVERSION. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT MAY FALL INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS BEFORE CLOUDS BUILD IN TOWARD SATURDAY MORNING. SOUNDINGS
SHOW CLOUDS MAY HANG TUFF RIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS ONCE AGAIN WILL
RESULT IN A TRICKY LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. IF
CLOUDS HANG IN TEMPERATURES MAY BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN
FORECASTED SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE SURFACE/UPPER RIDGES WILL SHIFT EAST SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL
APPROACH THE AREA CHRISTMAS EVE. APPEARS THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE
MORE WET THAN WHITE AS LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS LOW PRESSURE PASSING
OFF TO OUR WEST LATER CHRISTMAS EVE THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY.
ALTHOUGH WE MAY SEE THE PRECIPITATION START AS SNOW INITIALLY IT
SHOULD QUICKLY CHANGE TO RAIN ALL AREAS BY LATER CHRISTMAS EVE.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD SHOULD BE ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR AT THE
NORTHERN TERMINALS AND TO VFR AT THE DOWN EAST TERMINALS.
CONDITIONS WILL BE MOSTLY VFR TOMORROW...BUT PATCHES OF MVFR STILL
POSSIBLE FROM KHUL NORTH...ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING.

SHORT TERM: MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER FRIDAY
NIGHT AND POSSIBLY CONTINUE AT TIMES RIGHT INTO SUNDAY ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THE WIND WILL BE TRENDING DOWN DURING THE
DAY FRIDAY.

SHORT TERM: WIND/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH TUESDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED BY MID WEEK AS THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
&&

.CLIMATE...A TOTAL OF 11.3 INCHES OF SNOW AT WFO CARIBOU AS OF 1
PM. THE SEASONAL TOTAL IS NOW UP TO 53.4 INCHES...WHICH RANKS AS
THE 3RD SNOWIEST WINTER SEASON TO DATE BEHIND ONLY 1972 AND 2007.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CB
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...CB/DUDA
MARINE...CB/DUDA
CLIMATE...CB



000
FXUS61 KGYX 182005
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
305 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD IN THIS EVENING. SOME
OCEAN EFFECT SNOW MAY BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY DUE TO ONSHORE
FLOW. A WEAK LOW WILL LIKELY STRENGTHEN AND PASS TO OUR WEST
TUESDAY AND MAY SPREAD LIGHT PRECIP INTO NEW ENGLAND. AN STRONGER
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOST LIKELY DEVELOP OFF TO OUR WEST ON
WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY BRING HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS WEDNESDAY
AND INTO CHRISTMAS MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
BLOCKED UPSLOPE SIGNAL IS PRETTY STRONG CURRENTLY...WITH KHIE
DROPPING BELOW 2SM VSBY. THIS IS USUALLY A PRETTY GOOD INDICATOR
OF HEAVIER SNWFL HEADING INTO NRN COOS COUNTY. SUSPECT A SIMILAR
STORY EWD INTO THE WRN ME MTNS. WITH FROUDE NUMBERS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE FALLING THRU THE EVENING...WILL KEEP POP CONFINED TO THE
NW SIDE OF THE MTN TOPS. SNWFL GRIDS LOOK IN GOOD SHAPE...WITH
ADDITIONAL LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. HOWEVER SINCE EVENT HAS
TRANSITIONED TO MOSTLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN LOCALIZED FAVORED
AREAS...WINTER WX ADVISORIES WILL BE CANCELLED.

CLOUD COVER SHOULD HANG TOUGH TONIGHT...AND GRADIENT WILL REMAIN
UP JUST ENOUGH TO KEEP A LIGHT BREEZE GOING. AS SUCH I HAVE
BLENDED IN MESOSCALE MODEL 2 M TEMP GUIDANCE...AS WE SHOULDN/T
REALLY SEE MUCH IF ANY RADIATIONAL COOLING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
UPSLOPE SHSN GRADUALLY TAPER OFF AS LIFT OVER THE TERRAIN
DECREASES DUE TO THE APPROACHING RIDGE. AS RIDGE MOVES IN ALOFT A
BIT OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE LOOKS LIKE IT MAY GET TRAPPED AND SINK
SWD ACROSS THE CWFA DURING THE DAY. THE LATEST NAM...GFS...AND CMC
DO INDICATE AT LEAST PARTIAL CLOUD COVER...SO HAVE BLENDED THESE
MODELS INTO THE LATEST SKY GRIDS. OTHERWISE THE SENSIBLE WX SHOULD
BE QUIET FRI.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE REGION DURING THE DAY
ON SATURDAY AND THEN SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL
SET UP RETURN FLOW FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS MAY PRODUCE SOME
OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS BUT AMOUNTS SHOULD BE VERY LIMITED.

CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT NEW ENGLAND WEATHER AS EARLY AS TUESDAY
NIGHT. WEAK DISTURBANCE GETS EJECTED FROM THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE SURFACE REFLECTION OF
THIS MAY ONLY BE A TROUGH BUT DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT WILL PROVIDE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR SOME FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RAIN. THE LARGER
EVENT GETS GOING LATER IN THE DAY AS A SECONDARY SURFACE LOW
BEGINS TO DEVELOP. MODELS ARE DIFFERING A BIT WITH THE DETAILS AS
THE GFS KEEPS THE SURFACE LOW FURTHER EAST AND THE EURO TAKES IT
WEST OF US OVER VERMONT. GIVEN THE WESTWARD EXTENT OF THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW...THE EXPECTATION IS THAT THE EURO HAS A BETTER HANDLE
ON THE SURFACE LOW. THE CURRENT TRACK WOULD TAKE IT WEST OF US AND
KEEP ALL OF NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE STORM.
THE SYSTEM LOOKS LIKE IT COULD GENERATE A LARGE AMOUNT OF
PRECIPITATION...WITH MOST OF IT IN THE FORM OF RAIN FOR THURSDAY.
AS THE STORM WINDS UP IT WILL LIKELY PRODUCE SOME STRONG WINDS AS
WELL.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...AREAS OF MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
OVERNIGHT...GRADUALLY LIFTING AND SCATTERING OUT TO VFR. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE NW FACING HIGHER TERRAIN...WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW
WILL KEEP MVFR CIGS LOCKED IN PLACE INTO FRI. IN ADDITION...SCT
IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE INVOF KHIE WHERE SHSN WILL CONTINUE IN
THE UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME. THESE SHSN TAPER OFF EARLY FRI...AND VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD.

LONG TERM...PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE REGION. ONSHORE FLOW
LATE SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY COULD PRODUCE SOME IFR CIGS AND REDUCED
VISIBILITY IN OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SCA CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRI MORNING. WIND
GUSTS NEAR 25 KTS AND SEAS AROUND 5 FT ON THE OUTER WATERS WILL
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE EARLY FRI.

LONG TERM...WILL LIKELY NEED FLAGS OVER THE WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT
AND THEN THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LEGRO
SHORT TERM...LEGRO
LONG TERM...POHL
AVIATION...LEGRO/POHL
MARINE...LEGRO/POHL




000
FXUS61 KGYX 182005
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
305 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD IN THIS EVENING. SOME
OCEAN EFFECT SNOW MAY BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY DUE TO ONSHORE
FLOW. A WEAK LOW WILL LIKELY STRENGTHEN AND PASS TO OUR WEST
TUESDAY AND MAY SPREAD LIGHT PRECIP INTO NEW ENGLAND. AN STRONGER
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOST LIKELY DEVELOP OFF TO OUR WEST ON
WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY BRING HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS WEDNESDAY
AND INTO CHRISTMAS MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
BLOCKED UPSLOPE SIGNAL IS PRETTY STRONG CURRENTLY...WITH KHIE
DROPPING BELOW 2SM VSBY. THIS IS USUALLY A PRETTY GOOD INDICATOR
OF HEAVIER SNWFL HEADING INTO NRN COOS COUNTY. SUSPECT A SIMILAR
STORY EWD INTO THE WRN ME MTNS. WITH FROUDE NUMBERS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE FALLING THRU THE EVENING...WILL KEEP POP CONFINED TO THE
NW SIDE OF THE MTN TOPS. SNWFL GRIDS LOOK IN GOOD SHAPE...WITH
ADDITIONAL LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. HOWEVER SINCE EVENT HAS
TRANSITIONED TO MOSTLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN LOCALIZED FAVORED
AREAS...WINTER WX ADVISORIES WILL BE CANCELLED.

CLOUD COVER SHOULD HANG TOUGH TONIGHT...AND GRADIENT WILL REMAIN
UP JUST ENOUGH TO KEEP A LIGHT BREEZE GOING. AS SUCH I HAVE
BLENDED IN MESOSCALE MODEL 2 M TEMP GUIDANCE...AS WE SHOULDN/T
REALLY SEE MUCH IF ANY RADIATIONAL COOLING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
UPSLOPE SHSN GRADUALLY TAPER OFF AS LIFT OVER THE TERRAIN
DECREASES DUE TO THE APPROACHING RIDGE. AS RIDGE MOVES IN ALOFT A
BIT OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE LOOKS LIKE IT MAY GET TRAPPED AND SINK
SWD ACROSS THE CWFA DURING THE DAY. THE LATEST NAM...GFS...AND CMC
DO INDICATE AT LEAST PARTIAL CLOUD COVER...SO HAVE BLENDED THESE
MODELS INTO THE LATEST SKY GRIDS. OTHERWISE THE SENSIBLE WX SHOULD
BE QUIET FRI.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE REGION DURING THE DAY
ON SATURDAY AND THEN SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL
SET UP RETURN FLOW FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS MAY PRODUCE SOME
OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS BUT AMOUNTS SHOULD BE VERY LIMITED.

CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT NEW ENGLAND WEATHER AS EARLY AS TUESDAY
NIGHT. WEAK DISTURBANCE GETS EJECTED FROM THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE SURFACE REFLECTION OF
THIS MAY ONLY BE A TROUGH BUT DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT WILL PROVIDE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR SOME FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RAIN. THE LARGER
EVENT GETS GOING LATER IN THE DAY AS A SECONDARY SURFACE LOW
BEGINS TO DEVELOP. MODELS ARE DIFFERING A BIT WITH THE DETAILS AS
THE GFS KEEPS THE SURFACE LOW FURTHER EAST AND THE EURO TAKES IT
WEST OF US OVER VERMONT. GIVEN THE WESTWARD EXTENT OF THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW...THE EXPECTATION IS THAT THE EURO HAS A BETTER HANDLE
ON THE SURFACE LOW. THE CURRENT TRACK WOULD TAKE IT WEST OF US AND
KEEP ALL OF NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE STORM.
THE SYSTEM LOOKS LIKE IT COULD GENERATE A LARGE AMOUNT OF
PRECIPITATION...WITH MOST OF IT IN THE FORM OF RAIN FOR THURSDAY.
AS THE STORM WINDS UP IT WILL LIKELY PRODUCE SOME STRONG WINDS AS
WELL.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...AREAS OF MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
OVERNIGHT...GRADUALLY LIFTING AND SCATTERING OUT TO VFR. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE NW FACING HIGHER TERRAIN...WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW
WILL KEEP MVFR CIGS LOCKED IN PLACE INTO FRI. IN ADDITION...SCT
IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE INVOF KHIE WHERE SHSN WILL CONTINUE IN
THE UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME. THESE SHSN TAPER OFF EARLY FRI...AND VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD.

LONG TERM...PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE REGION. ONSHORE FLOW
LATE SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY COULD PRODUCE SOME IFR CIGS AND REDUCED
VISIBILITY IN OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SCA CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRI MORNING. WIND
GUSTS NEAR 25 KTS AND SEAS AROUND 5 FT ON THE OUTER WATERS WILL
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE EARLY FRI.

LONG TERM...WILL LIKELY NEED FLAGS OVER THE WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT
AND THEN THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LEGRO
SHORT TERM...LEGRO
LONG TERM...POHL
AVIATION...LEGRO/POHL
MARINE...LEGRO/POHL



000
FXUS61 KCAR 181649
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1149 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL EXIT ACROSS THE MARITIMES TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION LATER FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1150 AM UPDATE...LOW PRESSURE REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS
EASTERN NEW BRUNSWICK AND PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND. MOISTURE CONTINUES
TO ROTATE AROUND THE LOW AND INTO NORTHERN AND EASTERN MAINE. THE
SNOW WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE SHOWERY IN NATURE THIS AFTERNOON
WITH THE STEADIEST OF THE SNOW TO FALL THROUGH MID-LATE AFTERNOON
ACROSS EASTERN MAINE. ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS FROM THIS POINT
ON SHOULD BE AN INCH OR TWO AT MOST...AND MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. WILL ALLOW THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES
FOR MUCH OF THE DOWN EAST REGION TO EXPIRE AT NOON...BUT WILL
MAINTAIN THE REMAINDER OF THE ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS FOR A FEW
MORE HOURS UNTIL THE SNOW BECOMES MORE SHOWERY IN NATURE. ONLY
MINOR TWEAKS TO THE ONGOING FORECAST BASED ON THE LATEST
OBSERVATIONS...RADAR TRENDS...AND NEAR TERM MODELS.

852 AM UPDATE...THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL THUS FAR HAS BEEN IN
SOUTHEAST AROOSTOOK WITH 13" AT HOULTON. LOW PRESSURE ACROSS
EASTERN NEW BRUNSWICK WILL REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY TODAY BEFORE
PULLING AWAY TO THE EAST TONIGHT. THE STEADY SNOWFALL ACROSS THE
AREA WILL TAPER BACK TO SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. THE HEAVIEST
RETURNS ARE NOW JUST EAST OF THE BORDER IN NEW BRUNSWICK.
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR TWO ARE EXPECTED IN MOST
AREAS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA TODAY WITH AN INCH OR
LESS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA. WILL MAINTAIN THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORIES AND WINTER STORM HEADLINES THIS MORNING...BUT
SHOULD BE ABLE TO EXPIRE/CANCEL MOST OF THEM BY AROUND MIDDAY.
ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO THE ONGOING FORECAST WHICH IS IN GOOD SHAPE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...NO CHGS MADE TO SN TOTALS FROM THE LAST
UPDATE ATTM. LATEST RADAR REF IMAGERY DOES SHOW A BAND OF GOOD LGT
TO MDT SNFL PIVOTING NE TO SW FROM EASTON TO JUST EAST OF PATTEN
ME. MODELS INDICATE THIS BANDING TO CONT TO NEARLY 12Z AND THEN
BEGIN TO MOVE E INTO NB PROV. LGT STEADY SNFL OVR THE REST OF THE
REGION WILL THEN TAPER TO SCT-NUMEROUS SN SHWRS THIS AFT...WITH UP
TO AN INCH OR TWO OF ADDITIONAL SNFL AFT 18Z TDY...MAINLY OVR
NRN/NERN PTNS OF THE REGION. SN SHWRS WILL SLOWLY WIND DOWN FROM
SW TO NE ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS AFTN THRU TNGT WITH LITTLE
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION... LINGERING LONGEST OVR THE FAR N. WNTR
WX HDLNS MAY BE ABLE TO BE DROPPED SOONER THAN THE 20Z EXPIRATION
TM LATER TDY OVR THE SW PTNS OF THE HDLN AREA.

OTHERWISE...BRISK NW WINDS WILL CONT TDY INTO THIS EVE AS THE
PRES GRAD ON THE W SIDE OF THE DEPARTING SFC LOW TIGHTENS.
HI TEMPS TDY WILL BE CLOSER TO AVG...BUT LOWS TNGT WILL BE HELD
ABV AVG DUE TO CLD CVR AND A MDT NW BREEZE BRINGING LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF ADDITIONAL LLVL COLD ADVCN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ON FRIDAY...SURFACE AND UPPER RIDGES WILL SLOWLY BUILD. A NORTH TO
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD STRATOCUMULUS FIELDS...BUT
SOME CLEARING WILL MOVE INTO THE ALLAGASH LATER IN THE DAY AND
SPREAD SOUTHWARD DURING FRIDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...CLOUDS WILL FILL
IN AGAIN FROM THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE LATER IN THE NIGHT
AS AN EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPS. THIS TRICKY CLOUD COVER
FORECAST AND SLOWLY DIMINISHING WINDS EQUATES TO A DIFFICULT LOW
TEMPERATURE FORECAST. READINGS BELOW ZERO ARE POSSIBLE WITH CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ALL NIGHT...BUT IT DOES NOT APPEAR PROBABLE
THAT THESE CRITERIA WILL BE MET EXCEPT IN THE ALLAGASH WHERE THE
FORECAST WILL CALL FOR READINGS JUST ABOVE ZERO. TOWARDS
BANGOR...EXPECT LOW TO MID TEENS AS WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY UP
MOST OF THE NIGHT. ON SATURDAY...THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION IS
EXPECTED TO TRAP A SHALLOW LAYER OF MOISTURE AND CREATE A CLOUDY
AND CHILLY DAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 20F IN THE CROWN OF MAINE AND
UPPER 20S TO NEAR 30F FOR BANGOR AND DOWN EAST. THE SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH CLOUDY
CONDITIONS AND A FEW FLURRIES IN A VERY SHALLOW UNSTABLE LAYER..
AS A RESULT...HAVE GONE ON THE HIGHER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR LOWS ON
SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO THOSE ON
SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FORECAST BECOMES MORE COMPLICATED FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A
WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES UP THE ATLANTIC
COAST. NWP OFFERS A WIDE RANGE OF SOLUTIONS RANGING FROM A
COMPLETE MISS TO MOST OF THE AREA BEING AFFECTED ON TUESDAY. HAVE
GONE WITH STEADILY INCREASING CHANCE POPS MONDAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT...AND SLOWLY DECREASING THEM TUESDAY. THE HIGHEST CHANCES
WILL BE DOWN EAST...DUE BOTH TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE LOW AND THE
FACT THAT A PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW WILL LIKELY PRODUCE LIGHT
RAIN AND DRIZZLE REGARDLESS OF THE LOW`S TRACK. CRITICAL
THICKNESSES WILL BE RISING DURING THIS PERIOD WITH THE MOST LIKELY
P-TYPE BEING RAIN FOR THE DOWN EAST REGION. AFTER THIS SYSTEM
EXITS...A BROAD SYNOPTIC-SCALE SOUTHEAST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BRING
SIGNIFICANT WARMING WEDNESDAY WITH LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE
TRANSITIONING TO STEADY RAIN LATE IN THE DAY. THE SYSTEM HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BRING AN INCH OF RAIN CHRISTMAS EVE...BUT IS LIKELY
TO MOVE THROUGH QUICKLY ENOUGH TO LESSEN HYDRO CONCERNS.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR/LIFR AT THE TAF SITES THIS MORNING WILL IMPROVE TO
MVFR AT THE DOWN EAST TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON AND AT THE NORTHERN
TAF SITES TONIGHT. THE DOWN EAST TERMINALS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE
TO VFR TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: MVFR CIGS WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT CONDITION FRIDAY
INTO MONDAY. INTERMITTENT PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT LOCATIONS SUCH AS FVE AND IN FLURRIES.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SCA WINDS AND/OR SEAS WILL CONT TDY THRU TNGT...SPCLY
OVR OUTER MZS050-051. WE MERGED LATEST BUOY OBS TO WW3 FCST WV HTS
THIS AFTN...THEN STAYED CLOSE TO WW3 WV HTS THRU TNGT.

SHORT TERM: AN SCA IS LIKELY FRIDAY MORNING...BUT TRANQUIL
CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED UNTIL WEDNESDAY WHEN A GALE IS A STRONG
POSSIBILITY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MEZ001>005-010-011-017-031.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MEZ006-
     032.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR MEZ015-016-
     029-030.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CB/VJN
SHORT TERM...MCW
LONG TERM...MCW
AVIATION...CB/VJN/MCW
MARINE...CB/VJN/MCW



000
FXUS61 KCAR 181649
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1149 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL EXIT ACROSS THE MARITIMES TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION LATER FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1150 AM UPDATE...LOW PRESSURE REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS
EASTERN NEW BRUNSWICK AND PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND. MOISTURE CONTINUES
TO ROTATE AROUND THE LOW AND INTO NORTHERN AND EASTERN MAINE. THE
SNOW WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE SHOWERY IN NATURE THIS AFTERNOON
WITH THE STEADIEST OF THE SNOW TO FALL THROUGH MID-LATE AFTERNOON
ACROSS EASTERN MAINE. ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS FROM THIS POINT
ON SHOULD BE AN INCH OR TWO AT MOST...AND MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. WILL ALLOW THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES
FOR MUCH OF THE DOWN EAST REGION TO EXPIRE AT NOON...BUT WILL
MAINTAIN THE REMAINDER OF THE ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS FOR A FEW
MORE HOURS UNTIL THE SNOW BECOMES MORE SHOWERY IN NATURE. ONLY
MINOR TWEAKS TO THE ONGOING FORECAST BASED ON THE LATEST
OBSERVATIONS...RADAR TRENDS...AND NEAR TERM MODELS.

852 AM UPDATE...THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL THUS FAR HAS BEEN IN
SOUTHEAST AROOSTOOK WITH 13" AT HOULTON. LOW PRESSURE ACROSS
EASTERN NEW BRUNSWICK WILL REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY TODAY BEFORE
PULLING AWAY TO THE EAST TONIGHT. THE STEADY SNOWFALL ACROSS THE
AREA WILL TAPER BACK TO SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. THE HEAVIEST
RETURNS ARE NOW JUST EAST OF THE BORDER IN NEW BRUNSWICK.
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR TWO ARE EXPECTED IN MOST
AREAS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA TODAY WITH AN INCH OR
LESS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA. WILL MAINTAIN THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORIES AND WINTER STORM HEADLINES THIS MORNING...BUT
SHOULD BE ABLE TO EXPIRE/CANCEL MOST OF THEM BY AROUND MIDDAY.
ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO THE ONGOING FORECAST WHICH IS IN GOOD SHAPE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...NO CHGS MADE TO SN TOTALS FROM THE LAST
UPDATE ATTM. LATEST RADAR REF IMAGERY DOES SHOW A BAND OF GOOD LGT
TO MDT SNFL PIVOTING NE TO SW FROM EASTON TO JUST EAST OF PATTEN
ME. MODELS INDICATE THIS BANDING TO CONT TO NEARLY 12Z AND THEN
BEGIN TO MOVE E INTO NB PROV. LGT STEADY SNFL OVR THE REST OF THE
REGION WILL THEN TAPER TO SCT-NUMEROUS SN SHWRS THIS AFT...WITH UP
TO AN INCH OR TWO OF ADDITIONAL SNFL AFT 18Z TDY...MAINLY OVR
NRN/NERN PTNS OF THE REGION. SN SHWRS WILL SLOWLY WIND DOWN FROM
SW TO NE ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS AFTN THRU TNGT WITH LITTLE
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION... LINGERING LONGEST OVR THE FAR N. WNTR
WX HDLNS MAY BE ABLE TO BE DROPPED SOONER THAN THE 20Z EXPIRATION
TM LATER TDY OVR THE SW PTNS OF THE HDLN AREA.

OTHERWISE...BRISK NW WINDS WILL CONT TDY INTO THIS EVE AS THE
PRES GRAD ON THE W SIDE OF THE DEPARTING SFC LOW TIGHTENS.
HI TEMPS TDY WILL BE CLOSER TO AVG...BUT LOWS TNGT WILL BE HELD
ABV AVG DUE TO CLD CVR AND A MDT NW BREEZE BRINGING LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF ADDITIONAL LLVL COLD ADVCN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ON FRIDAY...SURFACE AND UPPER RIDGES WILL SLOWLY BUILD. A NORTH TO
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD STRATOCUMULUS FIELDS...BUT
SOME CLEARING WILL MOVE INTO THE ALLAGASH LATER IN THE DAY AND
SPREAD SOUTHWARD DURING FRIDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...CLOUDS WILL FILL
IN AGAIN FROM THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE LATER IN THE NIGHT
AS AN EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPS. THIS TRICKY CLOUD COVER
FORECAST AND SLOWLY DIMINISHING WINDS EQUATES TO A DIFFICULT LOW
TEMPERATURE FORECAST. READINGS BELOW ZERO ARE POSSIBLE WITH CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ALL NIGHT...BUT IT DOES NOT APPEAR PROBABLE
THAT THESE CRITERIA WILL BE MET EXCEPT IN THE ALLAGASH WHERE THE
FORECAST WILL CALL FOR READINGS JUST ABOVE ZERO. TOWARDS
BANGOR...EXPECT LOW TO MID TEENS AS WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY UP
MOST OF THE NIGHT. ON SATURDAY...THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION IS
EXPECTED TO TRAP A SHALLOW LAYER OF MOISTURE AND CREATE A CLOUDY
AND CHILLY DAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 20F IN THE CROWN OF MAINE AND
UPPER 20S TO NEAR 30F FOR BANGOR AND DOWN EAST. THE SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH CLOUDY
CONDITIONS AND A FEW FLURRIES IN A VERY SHALLOW UNSTABLE LAYER..
AS A RESULT...HAVE GONE ON THE HIGHER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR LOWS ON
SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO THOSE ON
SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FORECAST BECOMES MORE COMPLICATED FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A
WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES UP THE ATLANTIC
COAST. NWP OFFERS A WIDE RANGE OF SOLUTIONS RANGING FROM A
COMPLETE MISS TO MOST OF THE AREA BEING AFFECTED ON TUESDAY. HAVE
GONE WITH STEADILY INCREASING CHANCE POPS MONDAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT...AND SLOWLY DECREASING THEM TUESDAY. THE HIGHEST CHANCES
WILL BE DOWN EAST...DUE BOTH TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE LOW AND THE
FACT THAT A PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW WILL LIKELY PRODUCE LIGHT
RAIN AND DRIZZLE REGARDLESS OF THE LOW`S TRACK. CRITICAL
THICKNESSES WILL BE RISING DURING THIS PERIOD WITH THE MOST LIKELY
P-TYPE BEING RAIN FOR THE DOWN EAST REGION. AFTER THIS SYSTEM
EXITS...A BROAD SYNOPTIC-SCALE SOUTHEAST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BRING
SIGNIFICANT WARMING WEDNESDAY WITH LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE
TRANSITIONING TO STEADY RAIN LATE IN THE DAY. THE SYSTEM HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BRING AN INCH OF RAIN CHRISTMAS EVE...BUT IS LIKELY
TO MOVE THROUGH QUICKLY ENOUGH TO LESSEN HYDRO CONCERNS.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR/LIFR AT THE TAF SITES THIS MORNING WILL IMPROVE TO
MVFR AT THE DOWN EAST TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON AND AT THE NORTHERN
TAF SITES TONIGHT. THE DOWN EAST TERMINALS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE
TO VFR TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: MVFR CIGS WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT CONDITION FRIDAY
INTO MONDAY. INTERMITTENT PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT LOCATIONS SUCH AS FVE AND IN FLURRIES.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SCA WINDS AND/OR SEAS WILL CONT TDY THRU TNGT...SPCLY
OVR OUTER MZS050-051. WE MERGED LATEST BUOY OBS TO WW3 FCST WV HTS
THIS AFTN...THEN STAYED CLOSE TO WW3 WV HTS THRU TNGT.

SHORT TERM: AN SCA IS LIKELY FRIDAY MORNING...BUT TRANQUIL
CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED UNTIL WEDNESDAY WHEN A GALE IS A STRONG
POSSIBILITY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MEZ001>005-010-011-017-031.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MEZ006-
     032.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR MEZ015-016-
     029-030.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CB/VJN
SHORT TERM...MCW
LONG TERM...MCW
AVIATION...CB/VJN/MCW
MARINE...CB/VJN/MCW




000
FXUS61 KGYX 181633 AAA
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1133 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS PUSHED OFF INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES...HOWEVER TROUGH REMAINS OVERHEAD AND SOME SNOW SHOWERS
CAN STILL BE EXPECTED FROM THIS ON THURSDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
WILL START TO BUILD IN THIS EVENING. SOME OCEAN EFFECT SNOW MAY BE
POSSIBLE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY DUE TO WEAK ONSHORE FLOW. A WEAK
COASTAL LOW WILL LIKELY STRENGTHEN AND PASS BY TO OUR WEST
TUESDAY AND MAY SPREAD LIGHT PRECIP INTO NEW ENGLAND. AN INTENSE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOST LIKELY DEVELOP OFF TO OUR WEST ON
WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY BRING HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS WEDNESDAY
AND INTO CHRISTMAS MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...SFC LOW PRES IS ROTATING NWD THRU THE MARITIMES
CURRENTLY...WITH NW FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA IN ITS WAKE.
THIS COOL...MOIST FLOW WILL TRANSITION PCPN TO UPSLOPE
VARIETY...WITH WIDESPREAD SHSN IN THE MTNS. CURRENTLY MODEL
FORECASTS INDICATE FLOW WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY BLOCKED THRU THIS
AFTERNOON. AS SUCH I HAVE TRENDED AWAY FROM HIGH POP ON THE
COASTAL PLAIN...AS SHSN SHOULD BEGIN TO STAY ON THE UPWIND SIDE OF
THE HIGH TERRAIN FROM THIS POINT FORWARD. HAVE ALSO INCREASED POP
IN THESE NWLY UPSLOPE AREAS THRU THIS AFTERNOON...AS WELL AS
INCREASED QPF IN THESE ZONES. EXPECTING AT LEAST ANOTHER 2-4
INCHES IN THESE AREAS...AND WILL EXTEND THE WINTER WX ADVISORY
THRU 21Z FOR THIS SNWFL. S OF THE MTN RIDGE LINE WINTER WX
ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN CANCELLED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
COLDER AIR DAMS ALONG THE HIGH TERRAIN TONIGHT WITH TEENS NORTH
AND LOWER TO MID 20S SOUTH. THE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES AND
ALLOWS WINDS TO DECREASE QUITE A BIT OVERNIGHT. THE DOWNSLOPING
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SCOUR CLOUDS OUT OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN
OVERNIGHT.

DRIER AND COLDER AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER IN FRIDAY WITH THE
DEPARTURE OF THE UPPER LOW. LOOKING AT A DRY...COOL AND SOMEWHAT
GUSTY FRIDAY WITH CLOUDS CLEARING OUT OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN AND
THEN EVENTUALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH MOISTURE
LEFT TO SQUEEZE OUT A FEW STRAY SNOWFLAKES OVER THE HIGHEST
PEAKS... BUT LITTLE ELSE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
START OFF WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WHICH SHOULD BRING
FAIR WEATHER INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. THE PATTERN WILL
THEN SIGNIFICANTLY CHANGE FROM ZONAL FLOW TO HIGHLY AMPLIFIED AS A
DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH DIGS OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. THE WEAK COASTAL
LOW THAT THE GFS WAS SHOWING LAST NIGHT FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY IS
NOW COMPLETELY REMOVED FROM THE 00Z RUN. THE CANADIAN STILL
DEVELOPS THIS WEAK SYSTEM OUT OF THE SOUTHERN STREAM...BUT IT IS
NOW WAY TOO FAR EAST TO POSE MUCH OF A THREAT TO OUR AREA. IF WE
SEE ANY LIGHT SNOW BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND IT WILL BE DUE TO
ONSHORE FLOW AND SOME OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS.

MODELS ARE NOW IN DECENT AGREEMENT THAT ANOTHER SOUTHERN STREAM
SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND ON TUESDAY. STILL
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME.  THE OPERATIONAL EURO/GEM/GFS ARE
SHOWING THIS SYSTEM PASSING TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST...HOWEVER TIMING
ISSUES ON WHEN THE LOW PASSES AND HOW FAR NORTH ANY LIGHT PRECIP
MAKES IT INTO NEW ENGLAND IS STILL UP IN THE AIR. 00Z EURO IS ALSO
THE FURTHEST EAST WITH THIS SYSTEM...BRINGING VERY LITTLE IF ANY
MOISTURE INTO NEW ENGLAND.

AFTER THIS SYSTEM PASSES OUR FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO THE LONG WAVE
TROUGH STARTING TO MATERIALIZE TUESDAY IN THE CENTRAL U.S. MODELS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH 500 MB CLOSED LOW FORMING IN THE UPPER
MIDWEST. TROUGH TILTS NEGATIVE BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND VIGOROUS
SHORTWAVE ROTATES AROUND IT...DEVELOPING A DEEP LOW PRESSURE AT
THE SURFACE. AS IT STANDS RIGHT NOW...WE END UP IN THE WARM SECTOR
WITH A DEEP MOISTURE FETCH FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AND ATLANTIC.
EURO ENSEMBLES/GEFS/AND GEM ENSEMBLES ALL ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THIS SCENARIO. HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME CONCERN ON HOW
NEGATIVELY AMPLIFIED THE 500MB TROUGH BECOMES...WITH THE 00Z EURO
NOW SHOWING THE TROUGH TILTING FURTHER EAST...FORMING THE SURFACE
LOW CLOSER TO DELMARVA AND TRACKING RIGHT UP THE HUDSON VALLEY
AND THEN INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. ALTHOUGH THIS IS STILL A WARM
TRACK FOR US...IF IT WERE TO CONTINUE THIS TREND AND FORM THE LOW
FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST OFF THE COAST...THEN OF COURSE THE FORECAST
WILL SIGNIFICANTLY CHANGE. ALSO...JUST CAUGHT THE 00Z EURO
ENSEMBLE AND A SMALL HANDFUL OF THE 50 MEMBERS ARE ALSO SHOWING
THIS SCENARIO.

FOR NOW THOUGH IT APPEARS WE WILL NOT BE LOOKING AT SNOW...BUT
EVEN SO THIS SYSTEM HAS POTENTIAL FOR MAJOR IMPACTS IN OUR AREA.
WITH THE WESTERLY TRACK...PWATS ARE LOOKING TO BE IN THE 1.1 TO
1.2 RANGE...WHICH IS MORE THAN 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE FLOODING AS WE START TO GET
CLOSER...BUT A LOT CAN STILL CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 6 DAYS. THE
POTENTIAL FOR HIGH WINDS WILL ALSO EXIST WITH TIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY
GRADIENT...THIS WILL BE ESPECIALLY TRUE ALONG THE COAST AND HIGHER
TERRAIN.

CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME AS FAR AS TIMING AND TRACK OF
THIS SYSTEM...BUT CONFIDENCE IS GROWING THAT WE WILL SEE PRECIP IN
THE FORM OF RAIN AND NOT SNOW AS MODELS HAVE NOW BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT
IN SHOWING A WESTERN TRACK OVER THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS...WILL
CONTINUE TO HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THIS OVER THE DAYS AHEAD
DUE TO THE POSSIBLE STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON CAUSING MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS WITH SOME
LOWER VISIBILITIES. WE SHOULD SEE IMPROVEMENT TO VFR BY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH NW GUSTING INTO THE LOWER 20S AT TIMES. WINDS
DECREASE AFTER THE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES AFTER DARK.

LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR MVFR CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST DUE TO OCEAN
EFFECT SNOW EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS ARE ON THE LOW SIDE AT THE MOMENT BUT SHOULD
PICK BACK UP WITH THE PASSAGE OF A SURFACE TROUGH AND RENEWED COLD
AIR ADVECTION. MIXING WILL BRING WIND GUSTS INTO THE 20-30 KT
RANGE BY MID MORNING. SEAS ARE CURRENTLY MARGINAL BUT SHOULD DROP
BELOW 5 FT TODAY.

LONG TERM...NO FLAGS EXPECTED AT LEAST THROUGH TUESDAY. THEN A
WEAK COASTAL LOW MAY BRING BORDERLINE SCA CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. A SIGNIFICANT STORM WILL DEVELOP MIDWEEK AND DEPENDING
ON THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM...STORM FORCE WINDS MAY BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MEZ007>009.
NH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NHZ001-002.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LEGRO



000
FXUS61 KGYX 181633 AAA
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1133 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS PUSHED OFF INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES...HOWEVER TROUGH REMAINS OVERHEAD AND SOME SNOW SHOWERS
CAN STILL BE EXPECTED FROM THIS ON THURSDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
WILL START TO BUILD IN THIS EVENING. SOME OCEAN EFFECT SNOW MAY BE
POSSIBLE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY DUE TO WEAK ONSHORE FLOW. A WEAK
COASTAL LOW WILL LIKELY STRENGTHEN AND PASS BY TO OUR WEST
TUESDAY AND MAY SPREAD LIGHT PRECIP INTO NEW ENGLAND. AN INTENSE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOST LIKELY DEVELOP OFF TO OUR WEST ON
WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY BRING HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS WEDNESDAY
AND INTO CHRISTMAS MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...SFC LOW PRES IS ROTATING NWD THRU THE MARITIMES
CURRENTLY...WITH NW FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA IN ITS WAKE.
THIS COOL...MOIST FLOW WILL TRANSITION PCPN TO UPSLOPE
VARIETY...WITH WIDESPREAD SHSN IN THE MTNS. CURRENTLY MODEL
FORECASTS INDICATE FLOW WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY BLOCKED THRU THIS
AFTERNOON. AS SUCH I HAVE TRENDED AWAY FROM HIGH POP ON THE
COASTAL PLAIN...AS SHSN SHOULD BEGIN TO STAY ON THE UPWIND SIDE OF
THE HIGH TERRAIN FROM THIS POINT FORWARD. HAVE ALSO INCREASED POP
IN THESE NWLY UPSLOPE AREAS THRU THIS AFTERNOON...AS WELL AS
INCREASED QPF IN THESE ZONES. EXPECTING AT LEAST ANOTHER 2-4
INCHES IN THESE AREAS...AND WILL EXTEND THE WINTER WX ADVISORY
THRU 21Z FOR THIS SNWFL. S OF THE MTN RIDGE LINE WINTER WX
ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN CANCELLED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
COLDER AIR DAMS ALONG THE HIGH TERRAIN TONIGHT WITH TEENS NORTH
AND LOWER TO MID 20S SOUTH. THE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES AND
ALLOWS WINDS TO DECREASE QUITE A BIT OVERNIGHT. THE DOWNSLOPING
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SCOUR CLOUDS OUT OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN
OVERNIGHT.

DRIER AND COLDER AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER IN FRIDAY WITH THE
DEPARTURE OF THE UPPER LOW. LOOKING AT A DRY...COOL AND SOMEWHAT
GUSTY FRIDAY WITH CLOUDS CLEARING OUT OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN AND
THEN EVENTUALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH MOISTURE
LEFT TO SQUEEZE OUT A FEW STRAY SNOWFLAKES OVER THE HIGHEST
PEAKS... BUT LITTLE ELSE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
START OFF WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WHICH SHOULD BRING
FAIR WEATHER INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. THE PATTERN WILL
THEN SIGNIFICANTLY CHANGE FROM ZONAL FLOW TO HIGHLY AMPLIFIED AS A
DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH DIGS OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. THE WEAK COASTAL
LOW THAT THE GFS WAS SHOWING LAST NIGHT FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY IS
NOW COMPLETELY REMOVED FROM THE 00Z RUN. THE CANADIAN STILL
DEVELOPS THIS WEAK SYSTEM OUT OF THE SOUTHERN STREAM...BUT IT IS
NOW WAY TOO FAR EAST TO POSE MUCH OF A THREAT TO OUR AREA. IF WE
SEE ANY LIGHT SNOW BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND IT WILL BE DUE TO
ONSHORE FLOW AND SOME OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS.

MODELS ARE NOW IN DECENT AGREEMENT THAT ANOTHER SOUTHERN STREAM
SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND ON TUESDAY. STILL
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME.  THE OPERATIONAL EURO/GEM/GFS ARE
SHOWING THIS SYSTEM PASSING TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST...HOWEVER TIMING
ISSUES ON WHEN THE LOW PASSES AND HOW FAR NORTH ANY LIGHT PRECIP
MAKES IT INTO NEW ENGLAND IS STILL UP IN THE AIR. 00Z EURO IS ALSO
THE FURTHEST EAST WITH THIS SYSTEM...BRINGING VERY LITTLE IF ANY
MOISTURE INTO NEW ENGLAND.

AFTER THIS SYSTEM PASSES OUR FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO THE LONG WAVE
TROUGH STARTING TO MATERIALIZE TUESDAY IN THE CENTRAL U.S. MODELS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH 500 MB CLOSED LOW FORMING IN THE UPPER
MIDWEST. TROUGH TILTS NEGATIVE BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND VIGOROUS
SHORTWAVE ROTATES AROUND IT...DEVELOPING A DEEP LOW PRESSURE AT
THE SURFACE. AS IT STANDS RIGHT NOW...WE END UP IN THE WARM SECTOR
WITH A DEEP MOISTURE FETCH FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AND ATLANTIC.
EURO ENSEMBLES/GEFS/AND GEM ENSEMBLES ALL ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THIS SCENARIO. HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME CONCERN ON HOW
NEGATIVELY AMPLIFIED THE 500MB TROUGH BECOMES...WITH THE 00Z EURO
NOW SHOWING THE TROUGH TILTING FURTHER EAST...FORMING THE SURFACE
LOW CLOSER TO DELMARVA AND TRACKING RIGHT UP THE HUDSON VALLEY
AND THEN INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. ALTHOUGH THIS IS STILL A WARM
TRACK FOR US...IF IT WERE TO CONTINUE THIS TREND AND FORM THE LOW
FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST OFF THE COAST...THEN OF COURSE THE FORECAST
WILL SIGNIFICANTLY CHANGE. ALSO...JUST CAUGHT THE 00Z EURO
ENSEMBLE AND A SMALL HANDFUL OF THE 50 MEMBERS ARE ALSO SHOWING
THIS SCENARIO.

FOR NOW THOUGH IT APPEARS WE WILL NOT BE LOOKING AT SNOW...BUT
EVEN SO THIS SYSTEM HAS POTENTIAL FOR MAJOR IMPACTS IN OUR AREA.
WITH THE WESTERLY TRACK...PWATS ARE LOOKING TO BE IN THE 1.1 TO
1.2 RANGE...WHICH IS MORE THAN 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE FLOODING AS WE START TO GET
CLOSER...BUT A LOT CAN STILL CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 6 DAYS. THE
POTENTIAL FOR HIGH WINDS WILL ALSO EXIST WITH TIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY
GRADIENT...THIS WILL BE ESPECIALLY TRUE ALONG THE COAST AND HIGHER
TERRAIN.

CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME AS FAR AS TIMING AND TRACK OF
THIS SYSTEM...BUT CONFIDENCE IS GROWING THAT WE WILL SEE PRECIP IN
THE FORM OF RAIN AND NOT SNOW AS MODELS HAVE NOW BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT
IN SHOWING A WESTERN TRACK OVER THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS...WILL
CONTINUE TO HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THIS OVER THE DAYS AHEAD
DUE TO THE POSSIBLE STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON CAUSING MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS WITH SOME
LOWER VISIBILITIES. WE SHOULD SEE IMPROVEMENT TO VFR BY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH NW GUSTING INTO THE LOWER 20S AT TIMES. WINDS
DECREASE AFTER THE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES AFTER DARK.

LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR MVFR CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST DUE TO OCEAN
EFFECT SNOW EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS ARE ON THE LOW SIDE AT THE MOMENT BUT SHOULD
PICK BACK UP WITH THE PASSAGE OF A SURFACE TROUGH AND RENEWED COLD
AIR ADVECTION. MIXING WILL BRING WIND GUSTS INTO THE 20-30 KT
RANGE BY MID MORNING. SEAS ARE CURRENTLY MARGINAL BUT SHOULD DROP
BELOW 5 FT TODAY.

LONG TERM...NO FLAGS EXPECTED AT LEAST THROUGH TUESDAY. THEN A
WEAK COASTAL LOW MAY BRING BORDERLINE SCA CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. A SIGNIFICANT STORM WILL DEVELOP MIDWEEK AND DEPENDING
ON THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM...STORM FORCE WINDS MAY BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MEZ007>009.
NH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NHZ001-002.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LEGRO




000
FXUS61 KCAR 181352
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
852 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL EXIT ACROSS THE MARITIMES TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION LATER FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
852 AM UPDATE...THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL THUS FAR HAS BEEN IN
SOUTHEAST AROOSTOOK WITH 13" AT HOULTON. LOW PRESSURE ACROSS
EASTERN NEW BRUNSWICK WILL REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY TODAY BEFORE
PULLING AWAY TO THE EAST TONIGHT. THE STEADY SNOWFALL ACROSS THE
AREA WILL TAPER BACK TO SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. THE HEAVIEST
RETURNS ARE NOW JUST EAST OF THE BORDER IN NEW BRUNSWICK.
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR TWO ARE EXPECTED IN MOST
AREAS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA TODAY WITH AN INCH OR
LESS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA. WILL MAINTAIN THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORIES AND WINTER STORM HEADLINES THIS MORNING...BUT
SHOULD BE ABLE TO EXPIRE/CANCEL MOST OF THEM BY AROUND MIDDAY.
ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO THE ONGOING FORECAST WHICH IS IN GOOD SHAPE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...NO CHGS MADE TO SN TOTALS FROM THE LAST
UPDATE ATTM. LATEST RADAR REF IMAGERY DOES SHOW A BAND OF GOOD LGT
TO MDT SNFL PIVOTING NE TO SW FROM EASTON TO JUST EAST OF PATTEN
ME. MODELS INDICATE THIS BANDING TO CONT TO NEARLY 12Z AND THEN
BEGIN TO MOVE E INTO NB PROV. LGT STEADY SNFL OVR THE REST OF THE
REGION WILL THEN TAPER TO SCT-NUMEROUS SN SHWRS THIS AFT...WITH UP
TO AN INCH OR TWO OF ADDITIONAL SNFL AFT 18Z TDY...MAINLY OVR
NRN/NERN PTNS OF THE REGION. SN SHWRS WILL SLOWLY WIND DOWN FROM
SW TO NE ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS AFTN THRU TNGT WITH LITTLE
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION... LINGERING LONGEST OVR THE FAR N. WNTR
WX HDLNS MAY BE ABLE TO BE DROPPED SOONER THAN THE 20Z EXPIRATION
TM LATER TDY OVR THE SW PTNS OF THE HDLN AREA.

OTHERWISE...BRISK NW WINDS WILL CONT TDY INTO THIS EVE AS THE
PRES GRAD ON THE W SIDE OF THE DEPARTING SFC LOW TIGHTENS.
HI TEMPS TDY WILL BE CLOSER TO AVG...BUT LOWS TNGT WILL BE HELD
ABV AVG DUE TO CLD CVR AND A MDT NW BREEZE BRINGING LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF ADDITIONAL LLVL COLD ADVCN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ON FRIDAY...SURFACE AND UPPER RIDGES WILL SLOWLY BUILD. A NORTH TO
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD STRATOCUMULUS FIELDS...BUT
SOME CLEARING WILL MOVE INTO THE ALLAGASH LATER IN THE DAY AND
SPREAD SOUTHWARD DURING FRIDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...CLOUDS WILL FILL
IN AGAIN FROM THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE LATER IN THE NIGHT
AS AN EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPS. THIS TRICKY CLOUD COVER
FORECAST AND SLOWLY DIMINISHING WINDS EQUATES TO A DIFFICULT LOW
TEMPERATURE FORECAST. READINGS BELOW ZERO ARE POSSIBLE WITH CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ALL NIGHT...BUT IT DOES NOT APPEAR PROBABLE
THAT THESE CRITERIA WILL BE MET EXCEPT IN THE ALLAGASH WHERE THE
FORECAST WILL CALL FOR READINGS JUST ABOVE ZERO. TOWARDS
BANGOR...EXPECT LOW TO MID TEENS AS WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY UP
MOST OF THE NIGHT. ON SATURDAY...THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION IS
EXPECTED TO TRAP A SHALLOW LAYER OF MOISTURE AND CREATE A CLOUDY
AND CHILLY DAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 20F IN THE CROWN OF MAINE AND
UPPER 20S TO NEAR 30F FOR BANGOR AND DOWN EAST. THE SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH CLOUDY
CONDITIONS AND A FEW FLURRIES IN A VERY SHALLOW UNSTABLE LAYER..
AS A RESULT...HAVE GONE ON THE HIGHER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR LOWS ON
SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO THOSE ON
SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FORECAST BECOMES MORE COMPLICATED FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A
WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES UP THE ATLANTIC
COAST. NWP OFFERS A WIDE RANGE OF SOLUTIONS RANGING FROM A
COMPLETE MISS TO MOST OF THE AREA BEING AFFECTED ON TUESDAY. HAVE
GONE WITH STEADILY INCREASING CHANCE POPS MONDAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT...AND SLOWLY DECREASING THEM TUESDAY. THE HIGHEST CHANCES
WILL BE DOWN EAST...DUE BOTH TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE LOW AND THE
FACT THAT A PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW WILL LIKELY PRODUCE LIGHT
RAIN AND DRIZZLE REGARDLESS OF THE LOW`S TRACK. CRITICAL
THICKNESSES WILL BE RISING DURING THIS PERIOD WITH THE MOST LIKELY
P-TYPE BEING RAIN FOR THE DOWN EAST REGION. AFTER THIS SYSTEM
EXITS...A BROAD SYNOPTIC-SCALE SOUTHEAST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BRING
SIGNIFICANT WARMING WEDNESDAY WITH LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE
TRANSITIONING TO STEADY RAIN LATE IN THE DAY. THE SYSTEM HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BRING AN INCH OF RAIN CHRISTMAS EVE...BUT IS LIKELY
TO MOVE THROUGH QUICKLY ENOUGH TO LESSEN HYDRO CONCERNS.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR/LIFR AT THE TAF SITES THIS MORNING WILL IMPROVE TO
MVFR AT THE DOWN EAST TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON AND AT THE NORTHERN
TAF SITES TONIGHT. THE DOWN EAST TERMINALS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE
TO VFR TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: MVFR CIGS WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT CONDITION FRIDAY
INTO MONDAY. INTERMITTENT PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT LOCATIONS SUCH AS FVE AND IN FLURRIES.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SCA WINDS AND/OR SEAS WILL CONT TDY THRU TNGT...SPCLY
OVR OUTER MZS050-051. WE MERGED LATEST BUOY OBS TO WW3 FCST WV HTS
THIS AFTN...THEN STAYED CLOSE TO WW3 WV HTS THRU TNGT.

SHORT TERM: AN SCA IS LIKELY FRIDAY MORNING...BUT TRANQUIL
CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED UNTIL WEDNESDAY WHEN A GALE IS A STRONG
POSSIBILITY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MEZ001>005-010-011-017-031.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MEZ006-
     032.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR MEZ015-016-
     029-030.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CB/VJN
SHORT TERM...MCW
LONG TERM...MCW
AVIATION...CB/VJN/MCW
MARINE...CB/VJN/MCW



000
FXUS61 KCAR 181352
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
852 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL EXIT ACROSS THE MARITIMES TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION LATER FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
852 AM UPDATE...THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL THUS FAR HAS BEEN IN
SOUTHEAST AROOSTOOK WITH 13" AT HOULTON. LOW PRESSURE ACROSS
EASTERN NEW BRUNSWICK WILL REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY TODAY BEFORE
PULLING AWAY TO THE EAST TONIGHT. THE STEADY SNOWFALL ACROSS THE
AREA WILL TAPER BACK TO SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. THE HEAVIEST
RETURNS ARE NOW JUST EAST OF THE BORDER IN NEW BRUNSWICK.
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR TWO ARE EXPECTED IN MOST
AREAS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA TODAY WITH AN INCH OR
LESS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA. WILL MAINTAIN THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORIES AND WINTER STORM HEADLINES THIS MORNING...BUT
SHOULD BE ABLE TO EXPIRE/CANCEL MOST OF THEM BY AROUND MIDDAY.
ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO THE ONGOING FORECAST WHICH IS IN GOOD SHAPE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...NO CHGS MADE TO SN TOTALS FROM THE LAST
UPDATE ATTM. LATEST RADAR REF IMAGERY DOES SHOW A BAND OF GOOD LGT
TO MDT SNFL PIVOTING NE TO SW FROM EASTON TO JUST EAST OF PATTEN
ME. MODELS INDICATE THIS BANDING TO CONT TO NEARLY 12Z AND THEN
BEGIN TO MOVE E INTO NB PROV. LGT STEADY SNFL OVR THE REST OF THE
REGION WILL THEN TAPER TO SCT-NUMEROUS SN SHWRS THIS AFT...WITH UP
TO AN INCH OR TWO OF ADDITIONAL SNFL AFT 18Z TDY...MAINLY OVR
NRN/NERN PTNS OF THE REGION. SN SHWRS WILL SLOWLY WIND DOWN FROM
SW TO NE ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS AFTN THRU TNGT WITH LITTLE
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION... LINGERING LONGEST OVR THE FAR N. WNTR
WX HDLNS MAY BE ABLE TO BE DROPPED SOONER THAN THE 20Z EXPIRATION
TM LATER TDY OVR THE SW PTNS OF THE HDLN AREA.

OTHERWISE...BRISK NW WINDS WILL CONT TDY INTO THIS EVE AS THE
PRES GRAD ON THE W SIDE OF THE DEPARTING SFC LOW TIGHTENS.
HI TEMPS TDY WILL BE CLOSER TO AVG...BUT LOWS TNGT WILL BE HELD
ABV AVG DUE TO CLD CVR AND A MDT NW BREEZE BRINGING LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF ADDITIONAL LLVL COLD ADVCN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ON FRIDAY...SURFACE AND UPPER RIDGES WILL SLOWLY BUILD. A NORTH TO
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD STRATOCUMULUS FIELDS...BUT
SOME CLEARING WILL MOVE INTO THE ALLAGASH LATER IN THE DAY AND
SPREAD SOUTHWARD DURING FRIDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...CLOUDS WILL FILL
IN AGAIN FROM THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE LATER IN THE NIGHT
AS AN EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPS. THIS TRICKY CLOUD COVER
FORECAST AND SLOWLY DIMINISHING WINDS EQUATES TO A DIFFICULT LOW
TEMPERATURE FORECAST. READINGS BELOW ZERO ARE POSSIBLE WITH CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ALL NIGHT...BUT IT DOES NOT APPEAR PROBABLE
THAT THESE CRITERIA WILL BE MET EXCEPT IN THE ALLAGASH WHERE THE
FORECAST WILL CALL FOR READINGS JUST ABOVE ZERO. TOWARDS
BANGOR...EXPECT LOW TO MID TEENS AS WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY UP
MOST OF THE NIGHT. ON SATURDAY...THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION IS
EXPECTED TO TRAP A SHALLOW LAYER OF MOISTURE AND CREATE A CLOUDY
AND CHILLY DAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 20F IN THE CROWN OF MAINE AND
UPPER 20S TO NEAR 30F FOR BANGOR AND DOWN EAST. THE SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH CLOUDY
CONDITIONS AND A FEW FLURRIES IN A VERY SHALLOW UNSTABLE LAYER..
AS A RESULT...HAVE GONE ON THE HIGHER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR LOWS ON
SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO THOSE ON
SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FORECAST BECOMES MORE COMPLICATED FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A
WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES UP THE ATLANTIC
COAST. NWP OFFERS A WIDE RANGE OF SOLUTIONS RANGING FROM A
COMPLETE MISS TO MOST OF THE AREA BEING AFFECTED ON TUESDAY. HAVE
GONE WITH STEADILY INCREASING CHANCE POPS MONDAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT...AND SLOWLY DECREASING THEM TUESDAY. THE HIGHEST CHANCES
WILL BE DOWN EAST...DUE BOTH TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE LOW AND THE
FACT THAT A PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW WILL LIKELY PRODUCE LIGHT
RAIN AND DRIZZLE REGARDLESS OF THE LOW`S TRACK. CRITICAL
THICKNESSES WILL BE RISING DURING THIS PERIOD WITH THE MOST LIKELY
P-TYPE BEING RAIN FOR THE DOWN EAST REGION. AFTER THIS SYSTEM
EXITS...A BROAD SYNOPTIC-SCALE SOUTHEAST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BRING
SIGNIFICANT WARMING WEDNESDAY WITH LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE
TRANSITIONING TO STEADY RAIN LATE IN THE DAY. THE SYSTEM HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BRING AN INCH OF RAIN CHRISTMAS EVE...BUT IS LIKELY
TO MOVE THROUGH QUICKLY ENOUGH TO LESSEN HYDRO CONCERNS.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR/LIFR AT THE TAF SITES THIS MORNING WILL IMPROVE TO
MVFR AT THE DOWN EAST TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON AND AT THE NORTHERN
TAF SITES TONIGHT. THE DOWN EAST TERMINALS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE
TO VFR TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: MVFR CIGS WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT CONDITION FRIDAY
INTO MONDAY. INTERMITTENT PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT LOCATIONS SUCH AS FVE AND IN FLURRIES.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SCA WINDS AND/OR SEAS WILL CONT TDY THRU TNGT...SPCLY
OVR OUTER MZS050-051. WE MERGED LATEST BUOY OBS TO WW3 FCST WV HTS
THIS AFTN...THEN STAYED CLOSE TO WW3 WV HTS THRU TNGT.

SHORT TERM: AN SCA IS LIKELY FRIDAY MORNING...BUT TRANQUIL
CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED UNTIL WEDNESDAY WHEN A GALE IS A STRONG
POSSIBILITY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MEZ001>005-010-011-017-031.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MEZ006-
     032.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR MEZ015-016-
     029-030.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CB/VJN
SHORT TERM...MCW
LONG TERM...MCW
AVIATION...CB/VJN/MCW
MARINE...CB/VJN/MCW




000
FXUS61 KCAR 181352
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
852 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL EXIT ACROSS THE MARITIMES TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION LATER FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
852 AM UPDATE...THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL THUS FAR HAS BEEN IN
SOUTHEAST AROOSTOOK WITH 13" AT HOULTON. LOW PRESSURE ACROSS
EASTERN NEW BRUNSWICK WILL REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY TODAY BEFORE
PULLING AWAY TO THE EAST TONIGHT. THE STEADY SNOWFALL ACROSS THE
AREA WILL TAPER BACK TO SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. THE HEAVIEST
RETURNS ARE NOW JUST EAST OF THE BORDER IN NEW BRUNSWICK.
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR TWO ARE EXPECTED IN MOST
AREAS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA TODAY WITH AN INCH OR
LESS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA. WILL MAINTAIN THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORIES AND WINTER STORM HEADLINES THIS MORNING...BUT
SHOULD BE ABLE TO EXPIRE/CANCEL MOST OF THEM BY AROUND MIDDAY.
ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO THE ONGOING FORECAST WHICH IS IN GOOD SHAPE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...NO CHGS MADE TO SN TOTALS FROM THE LAST
UPDATE ATTM. LATEST RADAR REF IMAGERY DOES SHOW A BAND OF GOOD LGT
TO MDT SNFL PIVOTING NE TO SW FROM EASTON TO JUST EAST OF PATTEN
ME. MODELS INDICATE THIS BANDING TO CONT TO NEARLY 12Z AND THEN
BEGIN TO MOVE E INTO NB PROV. LGT STEADY SNFL OVR THE REST OF THE
REGION WILL THEN TAPER TO SCT-NUMEROUS SN SHWRS THIS AFT...WITH UP
TO AN INCH OR TWO OF ADDITIONAL SNFL AFT 18Z TDY...MAINLY OVR
NRN/NERN PTNS OF THE REGION. SN SHWRS WILL SLOWLY WIND DOWN FROM
SW TO NE ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS AFTN THRU TNGT WITH LITTLE
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION... LINGERING LONGEST OVR THE FAR N. WNTR
WX HDLNS MAY BE ABLE TO BE DROPPED SOONER THAN THE 20Z EXPIRATION
TM LATER TDY OVR THE SW PTNS OF THE HDLN AREA.

OTHERWISE...BRISK NW WINDS WILL CONT TDY INTO THIS EVE AS THE
PRES GRAD ON THE W SIDE OF THE DEPARTING SFC LOW TIGHTENS.
HI TEMPS TDY WILL BE CLOSER TO AVG...BUT LOWS TNGT WILL BE HELD
ABV AVG DUE TO CLD CVR AND A MDT NW BREEZE BRINGING LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF ADDITIONAL LLVL COLD ADVCN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ON FRIDAY...SURFACE AND UPPER RIDGES WILL SLOWLY BUILD. A NORTH TO
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD STRATOCUMULUS FIELDS...BUT
SOME CLEARING WILL MOVE INTO THE ALLAGASH LATER IN THE DAY AND
SPREAD SOUTHWARD DURING FRIDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...CLOUDS WILL FILL
IN AGAIN FROM THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE LATER IN THE NIGHT
AS AN EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPS. THIS TRICKY CLOUD COVER
FORECAST AND SLOWLY DIMINISHING WINDS EQUATES TO A DIFFICULT LOW
TEMPERATURE FORECAST. READINGS BELOW ZERO ARE POSSIBLE WITH CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ALL NIGHT...BUT IT DOES NOT APPEAR PROBABLE
THAT THESE CRITERIA WILL BE MET EXCEPT IN THE ALLAGASH WHERE THE
FORECAST WILL CALL FOR READINGS JUST ABOVE ZERO. TOWARDS
BANGOR...EXPECT LOW TO MID TEENS AS WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY UP
MOST OF THE NIGHT. ON SATURDAY...THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION IS
EXPECTED TO TRAP A SHALLOW LAYER OF MOISTURE AND CREATE A CLOUDY
AND CHILLY DAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 20F IN THE CROWN OF MAINE AND
UPPER 20S TO NEAR 30F FOR BANGOR AND DOWN EAST. THE SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH CLOUDY
CONDITIONS AND A FEW FLURRIES IN A VERY SHALLOW UNSTABLE LAYER..
AS A RESULT...HAVE GONE ON THE HIGHER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR LOWS ON
SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO THOSE ON
SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FORECAST BECOMES MORE COMPLICATED FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A
WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES UP THE ATLANTIC
COAST. NWP OFFERS A WIDE RANGE OF SOLUTIONS RANGING FROM A
COMPLETE MISS TO MOST OF THE AREA BEING AFFECTED ON TUESDAY. HAVE
GONE WITH STEADILY INCREASING CHANCE POPS MONDAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT...AND SLOWLY DECREASING THEM TUESDAY. THE HIGHEST CHANCES
WILL BE DOWN EAST...DUE BOTH TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE LOW AND THE
FACT THAT A PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW WILL LIKELY PRODUCE LIGHT
RAIN AND DRIZZLE REGARDLESS OF THE LOW`S TRACK. CRITICAL
THICKNESSES WILL BE RISING DURING THIS PERIOD WITH THE MOST LIKELY
P-TYPE BEING RAIN FOR THE DOWN EAST REGION. AFTER THIS SYSTEM
EXITS...A BROAD SYNOPTIC-SCALE SOUTHEAST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BRING
SIGNIFICANT WARMING WEDNESDAY WITH LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE
TRANSITIONING TO STEADY RAIN LATE IN THE DAY. THE SYSTEM HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BRING AN INCH OF RAIN CHRISTMAS EVE...BUT IS LIKELY
TO MOVE THROUGH QUICKLY ENOUGH TO LESSEN HYDRO CONCERNS.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR/LIFR AT THE TAF SITES THIS MORNING WILL IMPROVE TO
MVFR AT THE DOWN EAST TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON AND AT THE NORTHERN
TAF SITES TONIGHT. THE DOWN EAST TERMINALS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE
TO VFR TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: MVFR CIGS WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT CONDITION FRIDAY
INTO MONDAY. INTERMITTENT PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT LOCATIONS SUCH AS FVE AND IN FLURRIES.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SCA WINDS AND/OR SEAS WILL CONT TDY THRU TNGT...SPCLY
OVR OUTER MZS050-051. WE MERGED LATEST BUOY OBS TO WW3 FCST WV HTS
THIS AFTN...THEN STAYED CLOSE TO WW3 WV HTS THRU TNGT.

SHORT TERM: AN SCA IS LIKELY FRIDAY MORNING...BUT TRANQUIL
CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED UNTIL WEDNESDAY WHEN A GALE IS A STRONG
POSSIBILITY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MEZ001>005-010-011-017-031.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MEZ006-
     032.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR MEZ015-016-
     029-030.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CB/VJN
SHORT TERM...MCW
LONG TERM...MCW
AVIATION...CB/VJN/MCW
MARINE...CB/VJN/MCW



000
FXUS61 KGYX 181202 AAA
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
702 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS PUSHED OFF INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES...HOWEVER TROUGH REMAINS OVERHEAD AND SOME SNOW SHOWERS
CAN STILL BE EXPECTED FROM THIS ON THURSDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
WILL START TO BUILD IN THIS EVENING. SOME OCEAN EFFECT SNOW MAY BE
POSSIBLE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY DUE TO WEAK ONSHORE FLOW. A WEAK
COASTAL LOW WILL LIKELY STRENGTHEN AND PASS BY TO OUR WEST
TUESDAY AND MAY SPREAD LIGHT PRECIP INTO NEW ENGLAND. AN INTENSE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOST LIKELY DEVELOP OFF TO OUR WEST ON
WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY BRING HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS WEDNESDAY
AND INTO CHRISTMAS MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
.UPDATE...
ADJUSTED POPS AS WELL AS TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS FOR THIS
UPDATE BASED ON HOURLY OBSERVATIONS. LIGHT SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS
STILL MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. SOME SLIGHTLY HEAVIER SNOWFALL IS
OCCURRING FROM TIME TO TIME OVER THE MID COAST REGION AND HAVE
INCREASED POPS THERE. OTHERWISE NO MAJOR CHANGES.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE NOW MOVING INTO NOVA SCOTIA WITH UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SPINNING OVER THE NORTHEAST. THE MOST VIGOROUS
SHORT WAVE ENERGY IS TO OUR SOUTH AND OFFSHORE... AS WELL AS TO
OUR NE. THIS WILL KEEP ANY SIGNIFICANT BANDING JUST OUT OF THE
FORECAST AREA AND THUS SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD STAY WITHIN WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE ADVISORIES CONTINUE THROUGH 1 PM
FOR 3-6" OF SNOW. NORTHERN SECTIONS AND ESPECIALLY PORTIONS OF
SOMERSET WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS.

SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF AROUND MIDDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A SURFACE
TROUGH. UPSLOPE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER ALONG THE WHITES
AND THE WESTERN MAINE MOUNTAINS BUT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
VERY LIGHT AS DRY AIR FILTERS IN ALOFT. MODERATE COLD AIR
ADVECTION AS WELL AS A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW NW
WINDS BEHIND THE SURFACE TROUGH TO GUST TO NEAR 30PH AT TIMES.

TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 30S NORTH TO LOWER 40S
SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
COLDER AIR DAMS ALONG THE HIGH TERRAIN TONIGHT WITH TEENS NORTH
AND LOWER TO MID 20S SOUTH. THE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES AND
ALLOWS WINDS TO DECREASE QUITE A BIT OVERNIGHT. THE DOWNSLOPING
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SCOUR CLOUDS OUT OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN
OVERNIGHT.

DRIER AND COLDER AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER IN FRIDAY WITH THE
DEPARTURE OF THE UPPER LOW. LOOKING AT A DRY...COOL AND SOMEWHAT
GUSTY FRIDAY WITH CLOUDS CLEARING OUT OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN AND
THEN EVENTUALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH MOISTURE
LEFT TO SQUEEZE OUT A FEW STRAY SNOWFLAKES OVER THE HIGHEST
PEAKS... BUT LITTLE ELSE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
START OFF WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WHICH SHOULD BRING
FAIR WEATHER INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. THE PATTERN WILL
THEN SIGNIFICANTLY CHANGE FROM ZONAL FLOW TO HIGHLY AMPLIFIED AS A
DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH DIGS OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. THE WEAK COASTAL
LOW THAT THE GFS WAS SHOWING LAST NIGHT FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY IS
NOW COMPLETELY REMOVED FROM THE 00Z RUN. THE CANADIAN STILL
DEVELOPS THIS WEAK SYSTEM OUT OF THE SOUTHERN STREAM...BUT IT IS
NOW WAY TOO FAR EAST TO POSE MUCH OF A THREAT TO OUR AREA. IF WE
SEE ANY LIGHT SNOW BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND IT WILL BE DUE TO
ONSHORE FLOW AND SOME OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS.

MODELS ARE NOW IN DECENT AGREEMENT THAT ANOTHER SOUTHERN STREAM
SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND ON TUESDAY. STILL
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME.  THE OPERATIONAL EURO/GEM/GFS ARE
SHOWING THIS SYSTEM PASSING TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST...HOWEVER TIMING
ISSUES ON WHEN THE LOW PASSES AND HOW FAR NORTH ANY LIGHT PRECIP
MAKES IT INTO NEW ENGLAND IS STILL UP IN THE AIR. 00Z EURO IS ALSO
THE FURTHEST EAST WITH THIS SYSTEM...BRINGING VERY LITTLE IF ANY
MOISTURE INTO NEW ENGLAND.

AFTER THIS SYSTEM PASSES OUR FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO THE LONG WAVE
TROUGH STARTING TO MATERIALIZE TUESDAY IN THE CENTRAL U.S. MODELS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH 500 MB CLOSED LOW FORMING IN THE UPPER
MIDWEST. TROUGH TILTS NEGATIVE BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND VIGOROUS
SHORTWAVE ROTATES AROUND IT...DEVELOPING A DEEP LOW PRESSURE AT
THE SURFACE. AS IT STANDS RIGHT NOW...WE END UP IN THE WARM SECTOR
WITH A DEEP MOISTURE FETCH FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AND ATLANTIC.
EURO ENSEMBLES/GEFS/AND GEM ENSEMBLES ALL ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THIS SCENARIO. HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME CONCERN ON HOW
NEGATIVELY AMPLIFIED THE 500MB TROUGH BECOMES...WITH THE 00Z EURO
NOW SHOWING THE TROUGH TILTING FURTHER EAST...FORMING THE SURFACE
LOW CLOSER TO DELMARVA AND TRACKING RIGHT UP THE HUDSON VALLEY
AND THEN INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. ALTHOUGH THIS IS STILL A WARM
TRACK FOR US...IF IT WERE TO CONTINUE THIS TREND AND FORM THE LOW
FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST OFF THE COAST...THEN OF COURSE THE FORECAST
WILL SIGNIFICANTLY CHANGE. ALSO...JUST CAUGHT THE 00Z EURO
ENSEMBLE AND A SMALL HANDFUL OF THE 50 MEMBERS ARE ALSO SHOWING
THIS SCENARIO.

FOR NOW THOUGH IT APPEARS WE WILL NOT BE LOOKING AT SNOW...BUT
EVEN SO THIS SYSTEM HAS POTENTIAL FOR MAJOR IMPACTS IN OUR AREA.
WITH THE WESTERLY TRACK...PWATS ARE LOOKING TO BE IN THE 1.1 TO
1.2 RANGE...WHICH IS MORE THAN 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE FLOODING AS WE START TO GET
CLOSER...BUT A LOT CAN STILL CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 6 DAYS. THE
POTENTIAL FOR HIGH WINDS WILL ALSO EXIST WITH TIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY
GRADIENT...THIS WILL BE ESPECIALLY TRUE ALONG THE COAST AND HIGHER
TERRAIN.

CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME AS FAR AS TIMING AND TRACK OF
THIS SYSTEM...BUT CONFIDENCE IS GROWING THAT WE WILL SEE PRECIP IN
THE FORM OF RAIN AND NOT SNOW AS MODELS HAVE NOW BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT
IN SHOWING A WESTERN TRACK OVER THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS...WILL
CONTINUE TO HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THIS OVER THE DAYS AHEAD
DUE TO THE POSSIBLE STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON CAUSING MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS WITH SOME
LOWER VISIBILITIES. WE SHOULD SEE IMPROVEMENT TO VFR BY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH NW GUSTING INTO THE LOWER 20S AT TIMES. WINDS
DECREASE AFTER THE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES AFTER DARK.

LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR MVFR CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST DUE TO OCEAN
EFFECT SNOW EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS ARE ON THE LOW SIDE AT THE MOMENT BUT SHOULD
PICK BACK UP WITH THE PASSAGE OF A SURFACE TROUGH AND RENEWED COLD
AIR ADVECTION. MIXING WILL BRING WIND GUSTS INTO THE 20-30 KT
RANGE BY MID MORNING. SEAS ARE CURRENTLY MARGINAL BUT SHOULD DROP
BELOW 5 FT TODAY.

LONG TERM...NO FLAGS EXPECTED AT LEAST THROUGH TUESDAY. THEN A
WEAK COASTAL LOW MAY BRING BORDERLINE SCA CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. A SIGNIFICANT STORM WILL DEVELOP MIDWEEK AND DEPENDING
ON THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM...STORM FORCE WINDS MAY BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MEZ007>009-012>014.
NH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NHZ001-002.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

HANES/KISTNER



000
FXUS61 KGYX 181202 AAA
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
702 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS PUSHED OFF INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES...HOWEVER TROUGH REMAINS OVERHEAD AND SOME SNOW SHOWERS
CAN STILL BE EXPECTED FROM THIS ON THURSDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
WILL START TO BUILD IN THIS EVENING. SOME OCEAN EFFECT SNOW MAY BE
POSSIBLE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY DUE TO WEAK ONSHORE FLOW. A WEAK
COASTAL LOW WILL LIKELY STRENGTHEN AND PASS BY TO OUR WEST
TUESDAY AND MAY SPREAD LIGHT PRECIP INTO NEW ENGLAND. AN INTENSE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOST LIKELY DEVELOP OFF TO OUR WEST ON
WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY BRING HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS WEDNESDAY
AND INTO CHRISTMAS MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
.UPDATE...
ADJUSTED POPS AS WELL AS TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS FOR THIS
UPDATE BASED ON HOURLY OBSERVATIONS. LIGHT SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS
STILL MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. SOME SLIGHTLY HEAVIER SNOWFALL IS
OCCURRING FROM TIME TO TIME OVER THE MID COAST REGION AND HAVE
INCREASED POPS THERE. OTHERWISE NO MAJOR CHANGES.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE NOW MOVING INTO NOVA SCOTIA WITH UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SPINNING OVER THE NORTHEAST. THE MOST VIGOROUS
SHORT WAVE ENERGY IS TO OUR SOUTH AND OFFSHORE... AS WELL AS TO
OUR NE. THIS WILL KEEP ANY SIGNIFICANT BANDING JUST OUT OF THE
FORECAST AREA AND THUS SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD STAY WITHIN WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE ADVISORIES CONTINUE THROUGH 1 PM
FOR 3-6" OF SNOW. NORTHERN SECTIONS AND ESPECIALLY PORTIONS OF
SOMERSET WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS.

SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF AROUND MIDDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A SURFACE
TROUGH. UPSLOPE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER ALONG THE WHITES
AND THE WESTERN MAINE MOUNTAINS BUT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
VERY LIGHT AS DRY AIR FILTERS IN ALOFT. MODERATE COLD AIR
ADVECTION AS WELL AS A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW NW
WINDS BEHIND THE SURFACE TROUGH TO GUST TO NEAR 30PH AT TIMES.

TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 30S NORTH TO LOWER 40S
SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
COLDER AIR DAMS ALONG THE HIGH TERRAIN TONIGHT WITH TEENS NORTH
AND LOWER TO MID 20S SOUTH. THE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES AND
ALLOWS WINDS TO DECREASE QUITE A BIT OVERNIGHT. THE DOWNSLOPING
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SCOUR CLOUDS OUT OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN
OVERNIGHT.

DRIER AND COLDER AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER IN FRIDAY WITH THE
DEPARTURE OF THE UPPER LOW. LOOKING AT A DRY...COOL AND SOMEWHAT
GUSTY FRIDAY WITH CLOUDS CLEARING OUT OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN AND
THEN EVENTUALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH MOISTURE
LEFT TO SQUEEZE OUT A FEW STRAY SNOWFLAKES OVER THE HIGHEST
PEAKS... BUT LITTLE ELSE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
START OFF WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WHICH SHOULD BRING
FAIR WEATHER INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. THE PATTERN WILL
THEN SIGNIFICANTLY CHANGE FROM ZONAL FLOW TO HIGHLY AMPLIFIED AS A
DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH DIGS OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. THE WEAK COASTAL
LOW THAT THE GFS WAS SHOWING LAST NIGHT FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY IS
NOW COMPLETELY REMOVED FROM THE 00Z RUN. THE CANADIAN STILL
DEVELOPS THIS WEAK SYSTEM OUT OF THE SOUTHERN STREAM...BUT IT IS
NOW WAY TOO FAR EAST TO POSE MUCH OF A THREAT TO OUR AREA. IF WE
SEE ANY LIGHT SNOW BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND IT WILL BE DUE TO
ONSHORE FLOW AND SOME OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS.

MODELS ARE NOW IN DECENT AGREEMENT THAT ANOTHER SOUTHERN STREAM
SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND ON TUESDAY. STILL
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME.  THE OPERATIONAL EURO/GEM/GFS ARE
SHOWING THIS SYSTEM PASSING TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST...HOWEVER TIMING
ISSUES ON WHEN THE LOW PASSES AND HOW FAR NORTH ANY LIGHT PRECIP
MAKES IT INTO NEW ENGLAND IS STILL UP IN THE AIR. 00Z EURO IS ALSO
THE FURTHEST EAST WITH THIS SYSTEM...BRINGING VERY LITTLE IF ANY
MOISTURE INTO NEW ENGLAND.

AFTER THIS SYSTEM PASSES OUR FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO THE LONG WAVE
TROUGH STARTING TO MATERIALIZE TUESDAY IN THE CENTRAL U.S. MODELS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH 500 MB CLOSED LOW FORMING IN THE UPPER
MIDWEST. TROUGH TILTS NEGATIVE BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND VIGOROUS
SHORTWAVE ROTATES AROUND IT...DEVELOPING A DEEP LOW PRESSURE AT
THE SURFACE. AS IT STANDS RIGHT NOW...WE END UP IN THE WARM SECTOR
WITH A DEEP MOISTURE FETCH FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AND ATLANTIC.
EURO ENSEMBLES/GEFS/AND GEM ENSEMBLES ALL ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THIS SCENARIO. HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME CONCERN ON HOW
NEGATIVELY AMPLIFIED THE 500MB TROUGH BECOMES...WITH THE 00Z EURO
NOW SHOWING THE TROUGH TILTING FURTHER EAST...FORMING THE SURFACE
LOW CLOSER TO DELMARVA AND TRACKING RIGHT UP THE HUDSON VALLEY
AND THEN INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. ALTHOUGH THIS IS STILL A WARM
TRACK FOR US...IF IT WERE TO CONTINUE THIS TREND AND FORM THE LOW
FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST OFF THE COAST...THEN OF COURSE THE FORECAST
WILL SIGNIFICANTLY CHANGE. ALSO...JUST CAUGHT THE 00Z EURO
ENSEMBLE AND A SMALL HANDFUL OF THE 50 MEMBERS ARE ALSO SHOWING
THIS SCENARIO.

FOR NOW THOUGH IT APPEARS WE WILL NOT BE LOOKING AT SNOW...BUT
EVEN SO THIS SYSTEM HAS POTENTIAL FOR MAJOR IMPACTS IN OUR AREA.
WITH THE WESTERLY TRACK...PWATS ARE LOOKING TO BE IN THE 1.1 TO
1.2 RANGE...WHICH IS MORE THAN 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE FLOODING AS WE START TO GET
CLOSER...BUT A LOT CAN STILL CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 6 DAYS. THE
POTENTIAL FOR HIGH WINDS WILL ALSO EXIST WITH TIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY
GRADIENT...THIS WILL BE ESPECIALLY TRUE ALONG THE COAST AND HIGHER
TERRAIN.

CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME AS FAR AS TIMING AND TRACK OF
THIS SYSTEM...BUT CONFIDENCE IS GROWING THAT WE WILL SEE PRECIP IN
THE FORM OF RAIN AND NOT SNOW AS MODELS HAVE NOW BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT
IN SHOWING A WESTERN TRACK OVER THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS...WILL
CONTINUE TO HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THIS OVER THE DAYS AHEAD
DUE TO THE POSSIBLE STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON CAUSING MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS WITH SOME
LOWER VISIBILITIES. WE SHOULD SEE IMPROVEMENT TO VFR BY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH NW GUSTING INTO THE LOWER 20S AT TIMES. WINDS
DECREASE AFTER THE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES AFTER DARK.

LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR MVFR CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST DUE TO OCEAN
EFFECT SNOW EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS ARE ON THE LOW SIDE AT THE MOMENT BUT SHOULD
PICK BACK UP WITH THE PASSAGE OF A SURFACE TROUGH AND RENEWED COLD
AIR ADVECTION. MIXING WILL BRING WIND GUSTS INTO THE 20-30 KT
RANGE BY MID MORNING. SEAS ARE CURRENTLY MARGINAL BUT SHOULD DROP
BELOW 5 FT TODAY.

LONG TERM...NO FLAGS EXPECTED AT LEAST THROUGH TUESDAY. THEN A
WEAK COASTAL LOW MAY BRING BORDERLINE SCA CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. A SIGNIFICANT STORM WILL DEVELOP MIDWEEK AND DEPENDING
ON THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM...STORM FORCE WINDS MAY BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MEZ007>009-012>014.
NH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NHZ001-002.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

HANES/KISTNER




000
FXUS61 KGYX 181202 AAA
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
702 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS PUSHED OFF INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES...HOWEVER TROUGH REMAINS OVERHEAD AND SOME SNOW SHOWERS
CAN STILL BE EXPECTED FROM THIS ON THURSDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
WILL START TO BUILD IN THIS EVENING. SOME OCEAN EFFECT SNOW MAY BE
POSSIBLE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY DUE TO WEAK ONSHORE FLOW. A WEAK
COASTAL LOW WILL LIKELY STRENGTHEN AND PASS BY TO OUR WEST
TUESDAY AND MAY SPREAD LIGHT PRECIP INTO NEW ENGLAND. AN INTENSE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOST LIKELY DEVELOP OFF TO OUR WEST ON
WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY BRING HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS WEDNESDAY
AND INTO CHRISTMAS MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
.UPDATE...
ADJUSTED POPS AS WELL AS TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS FOR THIS
UPDATE BASED ON HOURLY OBSERVATIONS. LIGHT SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS
STILL MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. SOME SLIGHTLY HEAVIER SNOWFALL IS
OCCURRING FROM TIME TO TIME OVER THE MID COAST REGION AND HAVE
INCREASED POPS THERE. OTHERWISE NO MAJOR CHANGES.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE NOW MOVING INTO NOVA SCOTIA WITH UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SPINNING OVER THE NORTHEAST. THE MOST VIGOROUS
SHORT WAVE ENERGY IS TO OUR SOUTH AND OFFSHORE... AS WELL AS TO
OUR NE. THIS WILL KEEP ANY SIGNIFICANT BANDING JUST OUT OF THE
FORECAST AREA AND THUS SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD STAY WITHIN WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE ADVISORIES CONTINUE THROUGH 1 PM
FOR 3-6" OF SNOW. NORTHERN SECTIONS AND ESPECIALLY PORTIONS OF
SOMERSET WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS.

SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF AROUND MIDDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A SURFACE
TROUGH. UPSLOPE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER ALONG THE WHITES
AND THE WESTERN MAINE MOUNTAINS BUT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
VERY LIGHT AS DRY AIR FILTERS IN ALOFT. MODERATE COLD AIR
ADVECTION AS WELL AS A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW NW
WINDS BEHIND THE SURFACE TROUGH TO GUST TO NEAR 30PH AT TIMES.

TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 30S NORTH TO LOWER 40S
SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
COLDER AIR DAMS ALONG THE HIGH TERRAIN TONIGHT WITH TEENS NORTH
AND LOWER TO MID 20S SOUTH. THE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES AND
ALLOWS WINDS TO DECREASE QUITE A BIT OVERNIGHT. THE DOWNSLOPING
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SCOUR CLOUDS OUT OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN
OVERNIGHT.

DRIER AND COLDER AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER IN FRIDAY WITH THE
DEPARTURE OF THE UPPER LOW. LOOKING AT A DRY...COOL AND SOMEWHAT
GUSTY FRIDAY WITH CLOUDS CLEARING OUT OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN AND
THEN EVENTUALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH MOISTURE
LEFT TO SQUEEZE OUT A FEW STRAY SNOWFLAKES OVER THE HIGHEST
PEAKS... BUT LITTLE ELSE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
START OFF WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WHICH SHOULD BRING
FAIR WEATHER INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. THE PATTERN WILL
THEN SIGNIFICANTLY CHANGE FROM ZONAL FLOW TO HIGHLY AMPLIFIED AS A
DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH DIGS OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. THE WEAK COASTAL
LOW THAT THE GFS WAS SHOWING LAST NIGHT FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY IS
NOW COMPLETELY REMOVED FROM THE 00Z RUN. THE CANADIAN STILL
DEVELOPS THIS WEAK SYSTEM OUT OF THE SOUTHERN STREAM...BUT IT IS
NOW WAY TOO FAR EAST TO POSE MUCH OF A THREAT TO OUR AREA. IF WE
SEE ANY LIGHT SNOW BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND IT WILL BE DUE TO
ONSHORE FLOW AND SOME OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS.

MODELS ARE NOW IN DECENT AGREEMENT THAT ANOTHER SOUTHERN STREAM
SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND ON TUESDAY. STILL
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME.  THE OPERATIONAL EURO/GEM/GFS ARE
SHOWING THIS SYSTEM PASSING TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST...HOWEVER TIMING
ISSUES ON WHEN THE LOW PASSES AND HOW FAR NORTH ANY LIGHT PRECIP
MAKES IT INTO NEW ENGLAND IS STILL UP IN THE AIR. 00Z EURO IS ALSO
THE FURTHEST EAST WITH THIS SYSTEM...BRINGING VERY LITTLE IF ANY
MOISTURE INTO NEW ENGLAND.

AFTER THIS SYSTEM PASSES OUR FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO THE LONG WAVE
TROUGH STARTING TO MATERIALIZE TUESDAY IN THE CENTRAL U.S. MODELS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH 500 MB CLOSED LOW FORMING IN THE UPPER
MIDWEST. TROUGH TILTS NEGATIVE BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND VIGOROUS
SHORTWAVE ROTATES AROUND IT...DEVELOPING A DEEP LOW PRESSURE AT
THE SURFACE. AS IT STANDS RIGHT NOW...WE END UP IN THE WARM SECTOR
WITH A DEEP MOISTURE FETCH FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AND ATLANTIC.
EURO ENSEMBLES/GEFS/AND GEM ENSEMBLES ALL ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THIS SCENARIO. HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME CONCERN ON HOW
NEGATIVELY AMPLIFIED THE 500MB TROUGH BECOMES...WITH THE 00Z EURO
NOW SHOWING THE TROUGH TILTING FURTHER EAST...FORMING THE SURFACE
LOW CLOSER TO DELMARVA AND TRACKING RIGHT UP THE HUDSON VALLEY
AND THEN INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. ALTHOUGH THIS IS STILL A WARM
TRACK FOR US...IF IT WERE TO CONTINUE THIS TREND AND FORM THE LOW
FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST OFF THE COAST...THEN OF COURSE THE FORECAST
WILL SIGNIFICANTLY CHANGE. ALSO...JUST CAUGHT THE 00Z EURO
ENSEMBLE AND A SMALL HANDFUL OF THE 50 MEMBERS ARE ALSO SHOWING
THIS SCENARIO.

FOR NOW THOUGH IT APPEARS WE WILL NOT BE LOOKING AT SNOW...BUT
EVEN SO THIS SYSTEM HAS POTENTIAL FOR MAJOR IMPACTS IN OUR AREA.
WITH THE WESTERLY TRACK...PWATS ARE LOOKING TO BE IN THE 1.1 TO
1.2 RANGE...WHICH IS MORE THAN 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE FLOODING AS WE START TO GET
CLOSER...BUT A LOT CAN STILL CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 6 DAYS. THE
POTENTIAL FOR HIGH WINDS WILL ALSO EXIST WITH TIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY
GRADIENT...THIS WILL BE ESPECIALLY TRUE ALONG THE COAST AND HIGHER
TERRAIN.

CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME AS FAR AS TIMING AND TRACK OF
THIS SYSTEM...BUT CONFIDENCE IS GROWING THAT WE WILL SEE PRECIP IN
THE FORM OF RAIN AND NOT SNOW AS MODELS HAVE NOW BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT
IN SHOWING A WESTERN TRACK OVER THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS...WILL
CONTINUE TO HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THIS OVER THE DAYS AHEAD
DUE TO THE POSSIBLE STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON CAUSING MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS WITH SOME
LOWER VISIBILITIES. WE SHOULD SEE IMPROVEMENT TO VFR BY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH NW GUSTING INTO THE LOWER 20S AT TIMES. WINDS
DECREASE AFTER THE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES AFTER DARK.

LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR MVFR CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST DUE TO OCEAN
EFFECT SNOW EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS ARE ON THE LOW SIDE AT THE MOMENT BUT SHOULD
PICK BACK UP WITH THE PASSAGE OF A SURFACE TROUGH AND RENEWED COLD
AIR ADVECTION. MIXING WILL BRING WIND GUSTS INTO THE 20-30 KT
RANGE BY MID MORNING. SEAS ARE CURRENTLY MARGINAL BUT SHOULD DROP
BELOW 5 FT TODAY.

LONG TERM...NO FLAGS EXPECTED AT LEAST THROUGH TUESDAY. THEN A
WEAK COASTAL LOW MAY BRING BORDERLINE SCA CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. A SIGNIFICANT STORM WILL DEVELOP MIDWEEK AND DEPENDING
ON THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM...STORM FORCE WINDS MAY BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MEZ007>009-012>014.
NH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NHZ001-002.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

HANES/KISTNER




000
FXUS61 KCAR 181058
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
558 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL EXIT ACROSS THE MARITIMES TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION LATER FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
545 AM UPDATE: BASED ON FACEBOOK AND DOT REPORTS...A NARROW BAND
OF MDT TO EVEN HEAVY SNOWFALL HAS FALLEN OVER PORTIONS OF DOWNEAST
MAINE INLAND FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST...RESULTING IN WIDELY
VARYING SNOWFALL REPORTS RANGING FROM A TRACE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST TO UPWARDS OF 9 INCHES JUST INLAND AT CHERRYFIELD...NEAR
THE COASTAL/CNTRL WASHINGTON COUNTY ZONE BORDER. A FEW REPORTS
SUGGESTS THIS BAND MAY EVEN EXTEND WWRD SOMEWHAT INTO ADJACENT
PORTIONS OF INLAND COASTAL HANCOCK COUNTY. GIVEN THESE WIDELY
VARYING AMOUNTS...WE DECIDED TO ISSUE A WINTER WX ADV FOR THE
REMAINING DOWNEAST PORTION OF OUR FORECAST AREA SPECIFYING LCLY
HIGHER SNFL TOTALS...INCLUDING SOUTHERN PENOBSCOT COUNTY TIL
NOON. MODELS INDICATE THAT LCLZD BANDING JUST INLAND FROM THE
COAST SHOULD BE THE FIRST AREA TO DIMINISH ACROSS OUR REGION THIS
MORN AS THE SFC AND UPPER LOW CONTS TO SLOWLY MOVE ENE INTO NB
PROV.

ORGNL DISC: NO CHGS MADE TO SN TOTALS FROM THE LAST UPDATE ATTM.
LATEST RADAR REF IMAGERY DOES SHOW A BAND OF GOOD LGT TO MDT SNFL
PIVOTING NE TO SW FROM EASTON TO JUST EAST OF PATTEN ME. MODELS
INDICATE THIS BANDING TO CONT TO NEARLY 12Z AND THEN BEGIN TO MOVE
E INTO NB PROV. LGT STEADY SNFL OVR THE REST OF THE REGION WILL
THEN TAPER TO SCT-NUMEROUS SN SHWRS THIS AFT...WITH UP TO AN INCH
OR TWO OF ADDITIONAL SNFL AFT 18Z TDY...MAINLY OVR NRN/NERN PTNS
OF THE REGION. SN SHWRS WILL SLOWLY WIND DOWN FROM SW TO NE ACROSS
THE REGION LATE THIS AFTN THRU TNGT WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATION... LINGERING LONGEST OVR THE FAR N. WNTR WX HDLNS MAY
BE ABLE TO BE DROPPED SOONER THAN THE 20Z EXPIRATION TM LATER TDY
OVR THE SW PTNS OF THE HDLN AREA.

OTHERWISE...BRISK NW WINDS WILL CONT TDY INTO THIS EVE AS THE
PRES GRAD ON THE W SIDE OF THE DEPARTING SFC LOW TIGHTENS.
HI TEMPS TDY WILL BE CLOSER TO AVG...BUT LOWS TNGT WILL BE HELD
ABV AVG DUE TO CLD CVR AND A MDT NW BREEZE BRINGING LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF ADDITIONAL LLVL COLD ADVCN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ON FRIDAY...SURFACE AND UPPER RIDGES WILL SLOWLY BUILD. A NORTH TO
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD STRATOCUMULUS FIELDS...BUT
SOME CLEARING WILL MOVE INTO THE ALLAGASH LATER IN THE DAY AND
SPREAD SOUTHWARD DURING FRIDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...CLOUDS WILL FILL
IN AGAIN FROM THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE LATER IN THE NIGHT
AS AN EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPS. THIS TRICKY CLOUD COVER
FORECAST AND SLOWLY DIMINISHING WINDS EQUATES TO A DIFFICULT LOW
TEMPERATURE FORECAST. READINGS BELOW ZERO ARE POSSIBLE WITH CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ALL NIGHT...BUT IT DOES NOT APPEAR PROBABLE
THAT THESE CRITERIA WILL BE MET EXCEPT IN THE ALLAGASH WHERE THE
FORECAST WILL CALL FOR READINGS JUST ABOVE ZERO. TOWARDS
BANGOR...EXPECT LOW TO MID TEENS AS WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY UP
MOST OF THE NIGHT. ON SATURDAY...THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION IS
EXPECTED TO TRAP A SHALLOW LAYER OF MOISTURE AND CREATE A CLOUDY
AND CHILLY DAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 20F IN THE CROWN OF MAINE AND
UPPER 20S TO NEAR 30F FOR BANGOR AND DOWN EAST. THE SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH CLOUDY
CONDITIONS AND A FEW FLURRIES IN A VERY SHALLOW UNSTABLE LAYER..
AS A RESULT...HAVE GONE ON THE HIGHER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR LOWS ON
SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO THOSE ON
SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FORECAST BECOMES MORE COMPLICATED FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A
WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES UP THE ATLANTIC
COAST. NWP OFFERS A WIDE RANGE OF SOLUTIONS RANGING FROM A
COMPLETE MISS TO MOST OF THE AREA BEING AFFECTED ON TUESDAY. HAVE
GONE WITH STEADILY INCREASING CHANCE POPS MONDAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT...AND SLOWLY DECREASING THEM TUESDAY. THE HIGHEST CHANCES
WILL BE DOWN EAST...DUE BOTH TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE LOW AND THE
FACT THAT A PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW WILL LIKELY PRODUCE LIGHT
RAIN AND DRIZZLE REGARDLESS OF THE LOW`S TRACK. CRITICAL
THICKNESSES WILL BE RISING DURING THIS PERIOD WITH THE MOST LIKELY
P-TYPE BEING RAIN FOR THE DOWN EAST REGION. AFTER THIS SYSTEM
EXITS...A BROAD SYNOPTIC-SCALE SOUTHEAST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BRING
SIGNIFICANT WARMING WEDNESDAY WITH LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE
TRANSITIONING TO STEADY RAIN LATE IN THE DAY. THE SYSTEM HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BRING AN INCH OF RAIN CHRISTMAS EVE...BUT IS LIKELY
TO MOVE THROUGH QUICKLY ENOUGH TO LESSEN HYDRO CONCERNS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR/LIFR CLG AND VSBYS ALL SITES THIS MORN IN SN WILL
IMPROVE TO MVFR OVR DOWNEAST SITES THIS AFTN AND THEN TO NRN TAF
SITES BY TNGT...WHILE DOWNEAST SITES IMPROVE TO VFR TNGT.

SHORT TERM: MVFR CIGS WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT CONDITION FRIDAY
INTO MONDAY. INTERMITTENT PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT LOCATIONS SUCH AS FVE AND IN FLURRIES.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SCA WINDS AND/OR SEAS WILL CONT TDY THRU TNGT...SPCLY
OVR OUTER MZS050-051. WE MERGED LATEST BUOY OBS TO WW3 FCST WV HTS
THIS AFTN...THEN STAYED CLOSE TO WW3 WV HTS THRU TNGT.

SHORT TERM: AN SCA IS LIKELY FRIDAY MORNING...BUT TRANQUIL
CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED UNTIL WEDNESDAY WHEN A GALE IS A STRONG
POSSIBILITY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MEZ001>005-010-011-017-031.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MEZ006-
     032.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR MEZ015-016-
     029-030.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...MCW
LONG TERM...MCW
AVIATION...VJN/MCW
MARINE...VJN/MCW



000
FXUS61 KCAR 181058
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
558 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL EXIT ACROSS THE MARITIMES TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION LATER FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
545 AM UPDATE: BASED ON FACEBOOK AND DOT REPORTS...A NARROW BAND
OF MDT TO EVEN HEAVY SNOWFALL HAS FALLEN OVER PORTIONS OF DOWNEAST
MAINE INLAND FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST...RESULTING IN WIDELY
VARYING SNOWFALL REPORTS RANGING FROM A TRACE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST TO UPWARDS OF 9 INCHES JUST INLAND AT CHERRYFIELD...NEAR
THE COASTAL/CNTRL WASHINGTON COUNTY ZONE BORDER. A FEW REPORTS
SUGGESTS THIS BAND MAY EVEN EXTEND WWRD SOMEWHAT INTO ADJACENT
PORTIONS OF INLAND COASTAL HANCOCK COUNTY. GIVEN THESE WIDELY
VARYING AMOUNTS...WE DECIDED TO ISSUE A WINTER WX ADV FOR THE
REMAINING DOWNEAST PORTION OF OUR FORECAST AREA SPECIFYING LCLY
HIGHER SNFL TOTALS...INCLUDING SOUTHERN PENOBSCOT COUNTY TIL
NOON. MODELS INDICATE THAT LCLZD BANDING JUST INLAND FROM THE
COAST SHOULD BE THE FIRST AREA TO DIMINISH ACROSS OUR REGION THIS
MORN AS THE SFC AND UPPER LOW CONTS TO SLOWLY MOVE ENE INTO NB
PROV.

ORGNL DISC: NO CHGS MADE TO SN TOTALS FROM THE LAST UPDATE ATTM.
LATEST RADAR REF IMAGERY DOES SHOW A BAND OF GOOD LGT TO MDT SNFL
PIVOTING NE TO SW FROM EASTON TO JUST EAST OF PATTEN ME. MODELS
INDICATE THIS BANDING TO CONT TO NEARLY 12Z AND THEN BEGIN TO MOVE
E INTO NB PROV. LGT STEADY SNFL OVR THE REST OF THE REGION WILL
THEN TAPER TO SCT-NUMEROUS SN SHWRS THIS AFT...WITH UP TO AN INCH
OR TWO OF ADDITIONAL SNFL AFT 18Z TDY...MAINLY OVR NRN/NERN PTNS
OF THE REGION. SN SHWRS WILL SLOWLY WIND DOWN FROM SW TO NE ACROSS
THE REGION LATE THIS AFTN THRU TNGT WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATION... LINGERING LONGEST OVR THE FAR N. WNTR WX HDLNS MAY
BE ABLE TO BE DROPPED SOONER THAN THE 20Z EXPIRATION TM LATER TDY
OVR THE SW PTNS OF THE HDLN AREA.

OTHERWISE...BRISK NW WINDS WILL CONT TDY INTO THIS EVE AS THE
PRES GRAD ON THE W SIDE OF THE DEPARTING SFC LOW TIGHTENS.
HI TEMPS TDY WILL BE CLOSER TO AVG...BUT LOWS TNGT WILL BE HELD
ABV AVG DUE TO CLD CVR AND A MDT NW BREEZE BRINGING LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF ADDITIONAL LLVL COLD ADVCN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ON FRIDAY...SURFACE AND UPPER RIDGES WILL SLOWLY BUILD. A NORTH TO
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD STRATOCUMULUS FIELDS...BUT
SOME CLEARING WILL MOVE INTO THE ALLAGASH LATER IN THE DAY AND
SPREAD SOUTHWARD DURING FRIDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...CLOUDS WILL FILL
IN AGAIN FROM THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE LATER IN THE NIGHT
AS AN EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPS. THIS TRICKY CLOUD COVER
FORECAST AND SLOWLY DIMINISHING WINDS EQUATES TO A DIFFICULT LOW
TEMPERATURE FORECAST. READINGS BELOW ZERO ARE POSSIBLE WITH CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ALL NIGHT...BUT IT DOES NOT APPEAR PROBABLE
THAT THESE CRITERIA WILL BE MET EXCEPT IN THE ALLAGASH WHERE THE
FORECAST WILL CALL FOR READINGS JUST ABOVE ZERO. TOWARDS
BANGOR...EXPECT LOW TO MID TEENS AS WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY UP
MOST OF THE NIGHT. ON SATURDAY...THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION IS
EXPECTED TO TRAP A SHALLOW LAYER OF MOISTURE AND CREATE A CLOUDY
AND CHILLY DAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 20F IN THE CROWN OF MAINE AND
UPPER 20S TO NEAR 30F FOR BANGOR AND DOWN EAST. THE SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH CLOUDY
CONDITIONS AND A FEW FLURRIES IN A VERY SHALLOW UNSTABLE LAYER..
AS A RESULT...HAVE GONE ON THE HIGHER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR LOWS ON
SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO THOSE ON
SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FORECAST BECOMES MORE COMPLICATED FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A
WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES UP THE ATLANTIC
COAST. NWP OFFERS A WIDE RANGE OF SOLUTIONS RANGING FROM A
COMPLETE MISS TO MOST OF THE AREA BEING AFFECTED ON TUESDAY. HAVE
GONE WITH STEADILY INCREASING CHANCE POPS MONDAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT...AND SLOWLY DECREASING THEM TUESDAY. THE HIGHEST CHANCES
WILL BE DOWN EAST...DUE BOTH TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE LOW AND THE
FACT THAT A PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW WILL LIKELY PRODUCE LIGHT
RAIN AND DRIZZLE REGARDLESS OF THE LOW`S TRACK. CRITICAL
THICKNESSES WILL BE RISING DURING THIS PERIOD WITH THE MOST LIKELY
P-TYPE BEING RAIN FOR THE DOWN EAST REGION. AFTER THIS SYSTEM
EXITS...A BROAD SYNOPTIC-SCALE SOUTHEAST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BRING
SIGNIFICANT WARMING WEDNESDAY WITH LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE
TRANSITIONING TO STEADY RAIN LATE IN THE DAY. THE SYSTEM HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BRING AN INCH OF RAIN CHRISTMAS EVE...BUT IS LIKELY
TO MOVE THROUGH QUICKLY ENOUGH TO LESSEN HYDRO CONCERNS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR/LIFR CLG AND VSBYS ALL SITES THIS MORN IN SN WILL
IMPROVE TO MVFR OVR DOWNEAST SITES THIS AFTN AND THEN TO NRN TAF
SITES BY TNGT...WHILE DOWNEAST SITES IMPROVE TO VFR TNGT.

SHORT TERM: MVFR CIGS WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT CONDITION FRIDAY
INTO MONDAY. INTERMITTENT PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT LOCATIONS SUCH AS FVE AND IN FLURRIES.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SCA WINDS AND/OR SEAS WILL CONT TDY THRU TNGT...SPCLY
OVR OUTER MZS050-051. WE MERGED LATEST BUOY OBS TO WW3 FCST WV HTS
THIS AFTN...THEN STAYED CLOSE TO WW3 WV HTS THRU TNGT.

SHORT TERM: AN SCA IS LIKELY FRIDAY MORNING...BUT TRANQUIL
CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED UNTIL WEDNESDAY WHEN A GALE IS A STRONG
POSSIBILITY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MEZ001>005-010-011-017-031.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MEZ006-
     032.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR MEZ015-016-
     029-030.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...MCW
LONG TERM...MCW
AVIATION...VJN/MCW
MARINE...VJN/MCW




000
FXUS61 KCAR 181058
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
558 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL EXIT ACROSS THE MARITIMES TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION LATER FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
545 AM UPDATE: BASED ON FACEBOOK AND DOT REPORTS...A NARROW BAND
OF MDT TO EVEN HEAVY SNOWFALL HAS FALLEN OVER PORTIONS OF DOWNEAST
MAINE INLAND FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST...RESULTING IN WIDELY
VARYING SNOWFALL REPORTS RANGING FROM A TRACE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST TO UPWARDS OF 9 INCHES JUST INLAND AT CHERRYFIELD...NEAR
THE COASTAL/CNTRL WASHINGTON COUNTY ZONE BORDER. A FEW REPORTS
SUGGESTS THIS BAND MAY EVEN EXTEND WWRD SOMEWHAT INTO ADJACENT
PORTIONS OF INLAND COASTAL HANCOCK COUNTY. GIVEN THESE WIDELY
VARYING AMOUNTS...WE DECIDED TO ISSUE A WINTER WX ADV FOR THE
REMAINING DOWNEAST PORTION OF OUR FORECAST AREA SPECIFYING LCLY
HIGHER SNFL TOTALS...INCLUDING SOUTHERN PENOBSCOT COUNTY TIL
NOON. MODELS INDICATE THAT LCLZD BANDING JUST INLAND FROM THE
COAST SHOULD BE THE FIRST AREA TO DIMINISH ACROSS OUR REGION THIS
MORN AS THE SFC AND UPPER LOW CONTS TO SLOWLY MOVE ENE INTO NB
PROV.

ORGNL DISC: NO CHGS MADE TO SN TOTALS FROM THE LAST UPDATE ATTM.
LATEST RADAR REF IMAGERY DOES SHOW A BAND OF GOOD LGT TO MDT SNFL
PIVOTING NE TO SW FROM EASTON TO JUST EAST OF PATTEN ME. MODELS
INDICATE THIS BANDING TO CONT TO NEARLY 12Z AND THEN BEGIN TO MOVE
E INTO NB PROV. LGT STEADY SNFL OVR THE REST OF THE REGION WILL
THEN TAPER TO SCT-NUMEROUS SN SHWRS THIS AFT...WITH UP TO AN INCH
OR TWO OF ADDITIONAL SNFL AFT 18Z TDY...MAINLY OVR NRN/NERN PTNS
OF THE REGION. SN SHWRS WILL SLOWLY WIND DOWN FROM SW TO NE ACROSS
THE REGION LATE THIS AFTN THRU TNGT WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATION... LINGERING LONGEST OVR THE FAR N. WNTR WX HDLNS MAY
BE ABLE TO BE DROPPED SOONER THAN THE 20Z EXPIRATION TM LATER TDY
OVR THE SW PTNS OF THE HDLN AREA.

OTHERWISE...BRISK NW WINDS WILL CONT TDY INTO THIS EVE AS THE
PRES GRAD ON THE W SIDE OF THE DEPARTING SFC LOW TIGHTENS.
HI TEMPS TDY WILL BE CLOSER TO AVG...BUT LOWS TNGT WILL BE HELD
ABV AVG DUE TO CLD CVR AND A MDT NW BREEZE BRINGING LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF ADDITIONAL LLVL COLD ADVCN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ON FRIDAY...SURFACE AND UPPER RIDGES WILL SLOWLY BUILD. A NORTH TO
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD STRATOCUMULUS FIELDS...BUT
SOME CLEARING WILL MOVE INTO THE ALLAGASH LATER IN THE DAY AND
SPREAD SOUTHWARD DURING FRIDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...CLOUDS WILL FILL
IN AGAIN FROM THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE LATER IN THE NIGHT
AS AN EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPS. THIS TRICKY CLOUD COVER
FORECAST AND SLOWLY DIMINISHING WINDS EQUATES TO A DIFFICULT LOW
TEMPERATURE FORECAST. READINGS BELOW ZERO ARE POSSIBLE WITH CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ALL NIGHT...BUT IT DOES NOT APPEAR PROBABLE
THAT THESE CRITERIA WILL BE MET EXCEPT IN THE ALLAGASH WHERE THE
FORECAST WILL CALL FOR READINGS JUST ABOVE ZERO. TOWARDS
BANGOR...EXPECT LOW TO MID TEENS AS WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY UP
MOST OF THE NIGHT. ON SATURDAY...THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION IS
EXPECTED TO TRAP A SHALLOW LAYER OF MOISTURE AND CREATE A CLOUDY
AND CHILLY DAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 20F IN THE CROWN OF MAINE AND
UPPER 20S TO NEAR 30F FOR BANGOR AND DOWN EAST. THE SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH CLOUDY
CONDITIONS AND A FEW FLURRIES IN A VERY SHALLOW UNSTABLE LAYER..
AS A RESULT...HAVE GONE ON THE HIGHER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR LOWS ON
SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO THOSE ON
SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FORECAST BECOMES MORE COMPLICATED FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A
WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES UP THE ATLANTIC
COAST. NWP OFFERS A WIDE RANGE OF SOLUTIONS RANGING FROM A
COMPLETE MISS TO MOST OF THE AREA BEING AFFECTED ON TUESDAY. HAVE
GONE WITH STEADILY INCREASING CHANCE POPS MONDAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT...AND SLOWLY DECREASING THEM TUESDAY. THE HIGHEST CHANCES
WILL BE DOWN EAST...DUE BOTH TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE LOW AND THE
FACT THAT A PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW WILL LIKELY PRODUCE LIGHT
RAIN AND DRIZZLE REGARDLESS OF THE LOW`S TRACK. CRITICAL
THICKNESSES WILL BE RISING DURING THIS PERIOD WITH THE MOST LIKELY
P-TYPE BEING RAIN FOR THE DOWN EAST REGION. AFTER THIS SYSTEM
EXITS...A BROAD SYNOPTIC-SCALE SOUTHEAST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BRING
SIGNIFICANT WARMING WEDNESDAY WITH LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE
TRANSITIONING TO STEADY RAIN LATE IN THE DAY. THE SYSTEM HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BRING AN INCH OF RAIN CHRISTMAS EVE...BUT IS LIKELY
TO MOVE THROUGH QUICKLY ENOUGH TO LESSEN HYDRO CONCERNS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR/LIFR CLG AND VSBYS ALL SITES THIS MORN IN SN WILL
IMPROVE TO MVFR OVR DOWNEAST SITES THIS AFTN AND THEN TO NRN TAF
SITES BY TNGT...WHILE DOWNEAST SITES IMPROVE TO VFR TNGT.

SHORT TERM: MVFR CIGS WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT CONDITION FRIDAY
INTO MONDAY. INTERMITTENT PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT LOCATIONS SUCH AS FVE AND IN FLURRIES.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SCA WINDS AND/OR SEAS WILL CONT TDY THRU TNGT...SPCLY
OVR OUTER MZS050-051. WE MERGED LATEST BUOY OBS TO WW3 FCST WV HTS
THIS AFTN...THEN STAYED CLOSE TO WW3 WV HTS THRU TNGT.

SHORT TERM: AN SCA IS LIKELY FRIDAY MORNING...BUT TRANQUIL
CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED UNTIL WEDNESDAY WHEN A GALE IS A STRONG
POSSIBILITY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MEZ001>005-010-011-017-031.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MEZ006-
     032.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR MEZ015-016-
     029-030.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...MCW
LONG TERM...MCW
AVIATION...VJN/MCW
MARINE...VJN/MCW



000
FXUS61 KCAR 180842
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
342 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL EXIT ACROSS THE MARITIMES TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION LATER FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
NO CHGS MADE TO SN TOTALS FROM THE LAST UPDATE ATTM. LATEST RADAR
REF IMAGERY DOES SHOW A BAND OF GOOD LGT TO MDT SNFL PIVOTING NE
TO SW FROM EASTON TO JUST EAST OF PATTEN ME. MODELS INDICATE THIS
BANDING TO CONT TO NEARLY 12Z AND THEN BEGIN TO MOVE E INTO NB
PROV. LGT STEADY SNFL OVR THE REST OF THE REGION WILL THEN TAPER
TO SCT-NUMEROUS SN SHWRS THIS AFT...WITH UP TO AN INCH OR TWO OF
ADDITIONAL SNFL AFT 18Z TDY...MAINLY OVR NRN/NERN PTNS OF THE
REGION. SN SHWRS WILL SLOWLY WIND DOWN FROM SW TO NE ACROSS THE
REGION LATE THIS AFTN THRU TNGT WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION...
LINGERING LONGEST OVR THE FAR N. WNTR WX HDLNS MAY BE ABLE TO BE
DROPPED SOONER THAN THE 20Z EXPIRATION TM LATER TDY OVR THE SW
PTNS OF THE HDLN AREA.

OTHERWISE...BRISK NW WINDS WILL CONT TDY INTO THIS EVE AS THE
PRES GRAD ON THE W SIDE OF THE DEPARTING SFC LOW TIGHTENS.
HI TEMPS TDY WILL BE CLOSER TO AVG...BUT LOWS TNGT WILL BE HELD
ABV AVG DUE TO CLD CVR AND A MDT NW BREEZE BRINGING LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF ADDITIONAL LLVL COLD ADVCN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ON FRIDAY...SURFACE AND UPPER RIDGES WILL SLOWLY BUILD. A NORTH TO
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD STRATOCUMULUS FIELDS...BUT
SOME CLEARING WILL MOVE INTO THE ALLAGASH LATER IN THE DAY AND
SPREAD SOUTHWARD DURING FRIDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...CLOUDS WILL FILL
IN AGAIN FROM THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE LATER IN THE NIGHT
AS AN EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPS. THIS TRICKY CLOUD COVER
FORECAST AND SLOWLY DIMINISHING WINDS EQUATES TO A DIFFICULT LOW
TEMPERATURE FORECAST. READINGS BELOW ZERO ARE POSSIBLE WITH CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ALL NIGHT...BUT IT DOES NOT APPEAR PROBABLE
THAT THESE CRITERIA WILL BE MET EXCEPT IN THE ALLAGASH WHERE THE
FORECAST WILL CALL FOR READINGS JUST ABOVE ZERO. TOWARDS
BANGOR...EXPECT LOW TO MID TEENS AS WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY UP
MOST OF THE NIGHT. ON SATURDAY...THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION IS
EXPECTED TO TRAP A SHALLOW LAYER OF MOISTURE AND CREATE A CLOUDY
AND CHILLY DAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 20F IN THE CROWN OF MAINE AND
UPPER 20S TO NEAR 30F FOR BANGOR AND DOWN EAST. THE SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH CLOUDY
CONDITIONS AND A FEW FLURRIES IN A VERY SHALLOW UNSTABLE LAYER..
AS A RESULT...HAVE GONE ON THE HIGHER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR LOWS ON
SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO THOSE ON
SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FORECAST BECOMES MORE COMPLICATED FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A
WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES UP THE ATLANTIC
COAST. NWP OFFERS A WIDE RANGE OF SOLUTIONS RANGING FROM A
COMPLETE MISS TO MOST OF THE AREA BEING AFFECTED ON TUESDAY. HAVE
GONE WITH STEADILY INCREASING CHANCE POPS MONDAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT...AND SLOWLY DECREASING THEM TUESDAY. THE HIGHEST CHANCES
WILL BE DOWN EAST...DUE BOTH TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE LOW AND THE
FACT THAT A PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW WILL LIKELY PRODUCE LIGHT
RAIN AND DRIZZLE REGARDLESS OF THE LOW`S TRACK. CRITICAL
THICKNESSES WILL BE RISING DURING THIS PERIOD WITH THE MOST LIKELY
P-TYPE BEING RAIN FOR THE DOWN EAST REGION. AFTER THIS SYSTEM
EXITS...A BROAD SYNOPTIC-SCALE SOUTHEAST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BRING
SIGNIFICANT WARMING WEDNESDAY WITH LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE
TRANSITIONING TO STEADY RAIN LATE IN THE DAY. THE SYSTEM HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BRING AN INCH OF RAIN CHRISTMAS EVE...BUT IS LIKELY
TO MOVE THROUGH QUICKLY ENOUGH TO LESSEN HYDRO CONCERNS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR/LIFR CLG AND VSBYS ALL SITES THIS MORN IN SN WILL
IMPROVE TO MVFR OVR DOWNEAST SITES THIS AFTN AND THEN TO NRN TAF
SITES BY TNGT...WHILE DOWNEAST SITES IMPROVE TO VFR TNGT.

SHORT TERM: MVFR CIGS WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT CONDITION FRIDAY
INTO MONDAY. INTERMITTENT PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT LOCATIONS SUCH AS FVE AND IN FLURRIES.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SCA WINDS AND/OR SEAS WILL CONT TDY THRU TNGT...SPCLY
OVR OUTER MZS050-051. WE MERGED LATEST BUOY OBS TO WW3 FCST WV HTS
THIS AFTN...THEN STAYED CLOSE TO WW3 WV HTS THRU TNGT.

SHORT TERM: AN SCA IS LIKELY FRIDAY MORNING...BUT TRANQUIL
CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED UNTIL WEDNESDAY WHEN A GALE IS A STRONG
POSSIBILITY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MEZ001>005-010-011-017-031.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MEZ006-
     032.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ050>052.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...MCW
LONG TERM...MCW
AVIATION...VJN/MCW
MARINE...VJN/MCW




000
FXUS61 KCAR 180842
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
342 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL EXIT ACROSS THE MARITIMES TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION LATER FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
NO CHGS MADE TO SN TOTALS FROM THE LAST UPDATE ATTM. LATEST RADAR
REF IMAGERY DOES SHOW A BAND OF GOOD LGT TO MDT SNFL PIVOTING NE
TO SW FROM EASTON TO JUST EAST OF PATTEN ME. MODELS INDICATE THIS
BANDING TO CONT TO NEARLY 12Z AND THEN BEGIN TO MOVE E INTO NB
PROV. LGT STEADY SNFL OVR THE REST OF THE REGION WILL THEN TAPER
TO SCT-NUMEROUS SN SHWRS THIS AFT...WITH UP TO AN INCH OR TWO OF
ADDITIONAL SNFL AFT 18Z TDY...MAINLY OVR NRN/NERN PTNS OF THE
REGION. SN SHWRS WILL SLOWLY WIND DOWN FROM SW TO NE ACROSS THE
REGION LATE THIS AFTN THRU TNGT WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION...
LINGERING LONGEST OVR THE FAR N. WNTR WX HDLNS MAY BE ABLE TO BE
DROPPED SOONER THAN THE 20Z EXPIRATION TM LATER TDY OVR THE SW
PTNS OF THE HDLN AREA.

OTHERWISE...BRISK NW WINDS WILL CONT TDY INTO THIS EVE AS THE
PRES GRAD ON THE W SIDE OF THE DEPARTING SFC LOW TIGHTENS.
HI TEMPS TDY WILL BE CLOSER TO AVG...BUT LOWS TNGT WILL BE HELD
ABV AVG DUE TO CLD CVR AND A MDT NW BREEZE BRINGING LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF ADDITIONAL LLVL COLD ADVCN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ON FRIDAY...SURFACE AND UPPER RIDGES WILL SLOWLY BUILD. A NORTH TO
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD STRATOCUMULUS FIELDS...BUT
SOME CLEARING WILL MOVE INTO THE ALLAGASH LATER IN THE DAY AND
SPREAD SOUTHWARD DURING FRIDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...CLOUDS WILL FILL
IN AGAIN FROM THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE LATER IN THE NIGHT
AS AN EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPS. THIS TRICKY CLOUD COVER
FORECAST AND SLOWLY DIMINISHING WINDS EQUATES TO A DIFFICULT LOW
TEMPERATURE FORECAST. READINGS BELOW ZERO ARE POSSIBLE WITH CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ALL NIGHT...BUT IT DOES NOT APPEAR PROBABLE
THAT THESE CRITERIA WILL BE MET EXCEPT IN THE ALLAGASH WHERE THE
FORECAST WILL CALL FOR READINGS JUST ABOVE ZERO. TOWARDS
BANGOR...EXPECT LOW TO MID TEENS AS WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY UP
MOST OF THE NIGHT. ON SATURDAY...THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION IS
EXPECTED TO TRAP A SHALLOW LAYER OF MOISTURE AND CREATE A CLOUDY
AND CHILLY DAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 20F IN THE CROWN OF MAINE AND
UPPER 20S TO NEAR 30F FOR BANGOR AND DOWN EAST. THE SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH CLOUDY
CONDITIONS AND A FEW FLURRIES IN A VERY SHALLOW UNSTABLE LAYER..
AS A RESULT...HAVE GONE ON THE HIGHER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR LOWS ON
SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO THOSE ON
SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FORECAST BECOMES MORE COMPLICATED FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A
WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES UP THE ATLANTIC
COAST. NWP OFFERS A WIDE RANGE OF SOLUTIONS RANGING FROM A
COMPLETE MISS TO MOST OF THE AREA BEING AFFECTED ON TUESDAY. HAVE
GONE WITH STEADILY INCREASING CHANCE POPS MONDAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT...AND SLOWLY DECREASING THEM TUESDAY. THE HIGHEST CHANCES
WILL BE DOWN EAST...DUE BOTH TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE LOW AND THE
FACT THAT A PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW WILL LIKELY PRODUCE LIGHT
RAIN AND DRIZZLE REGARDLESS OF THE LOW`S TRACK. CRITICAL
THICKNESSES WILL BE RISING DURING THIS PERIOD WITH THE MOST LIKELY
P-TYPE BEING RAIN FOR THE DOWN EAST REGION. AFTER THIS SYSTEM
EXITS...A BROAD SYNOPTIC-SCALE SOUTHEAST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BRING
SIGNIFICANT WARMING WEDNESDAY WITH LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE
TRANSITIONING TO STEADY RAIN LATE IN THE DAY. THE SYSTEM HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BRING AN INCH OF RAIN CHRISTMAS EVE...BUT IS LIKELY
TO MOVE THROUGH QUICKLY ENOUGH TO LESSEN HYDRO CONCERNS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR/LIFR CLG AND VSBYS ALL SITES THIS MORN IN SN WILL
IMPROVE TO MVFR OVR DOWNEAST SITES THIS AFTN AND THEN TO NRN TAF
SITES BY TNGT...WHILE DOWNEAST SITES IMPROVE TO VFR TNGT.

SHORT TERM: MVFR CIGS WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT CONDITION FRIDAY
INTO MONDAY. INTERMITTENT PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT LOCATIONS SUCH AS FVE AND IN FLURRIES.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SCA WINDS AND/OR SEAS WILL CONT TDY THRU TNGT...SPCLY
OVR OUTER MZS050-051. WE MERGED LATEST BUOY OBS TO WW3 FCST WV HTS
THIS AFTN...THEN STAYED CLOSE TO WW3 WV HTS THRU TNGT.

SHORT TERM: AN SCA IS LIKELY FRIDAY MORNING...BUT TRANQUIL
CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED UNTIL WEDNESDAY WHEN A GALE IS A STRONG
POSSIBILITY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MEZ001>005-010-011-017-031.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MEZ006-
     032.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ050>052.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...MCW
LONG TERM...MCW
AVIATION...VJN/MCW
MARINE...VJN/MCW




000
FXUS61 KCAR 180842
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
342 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL EXIT ACROSS THE MARITIMES TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION LATER FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
NO CHGS MADE TO SN TOTALS FROM THE LAST UPDATE ATTM. LATEST RADAR
REF IMAGERY DOES SHOW A BAND OF GOOD LGT TO MDT SNFL PIVOTING NE
TO SW FROM EASTON TO JUST EAST OF PATTEN ME. MODELS INDICATE THIS
BANDING TO CONT TO NEARLY 12Z AND THEN BEGIN TO MOVE E INTO NB
PROV. LGT STEADY SNFL OVR THE REST OF THE REGION WILL THEN TAPER
TO SCT-NUMEROUS SN SHWRS THIS AFT...WITH UP TO AN INCH OR TWO OF
ADDITIONAL SNFL AFT 18Z TDY...MAINLY OVR NRN/NERN PTNS OF THE
REGION. SN SHWRS WILL SLOWLY WIND DOWN FROM SW TO NE ACROSS THE
REGION LATE THIS AFTN THRU TNGT WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION...
LINGERING LONGEST OVR THE FAR N. WNTR WX HDLNS MAY BE ABLE TO BE
DROPPED SOONER THAN THE 20Z EXPIRATION TM LATER TDY OVR THE SW
PTNS OF THE HDLN AREA.

OTHERWISE...BRISK NW WINDS WILL CONT TDY INTO THIS EVE AS THE
PRES GRAD ON THE W SIDE OF THE DEPARTING SFC LOW TIGHTENS.
HI TEMPS TDY WILL BE CLOSER TO AVG...BUT LOWS TNGT WILL BE HELD
ABV AVG DUE TO CLD CVR AND A MDT NW BREEZE BRINGING LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF ADDITIONAL LLVL COLD ADVCN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ON FRIDAY...SURFACE AND UPPER RIDGES WILL SLOWLY BUILD. A NORTH TO
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD STRATOCUMULUS FIELDS...BUT
SOME CLEARING WILL MOVE INTO THE ALLAGASH LATER IN THE DAY AND
SPREAD SOUTHWARD DURING FRIDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...CLOUDS WILL FILL
IN AGAIN FROM THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE LATER IN THE NIGHT
AS AN EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPS. THIS TRICKY CLOUD COVER
FORECAST AND SLOWLY DIMINISHING WINDS EQUATES TO A DIFFICULT LOW
TEMPERATURE FORECAST. READINGS BELOW ZERO ARE POSSIBLE WITH CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ALL NIGHT...BUT IT DOES NOT APPEAR PROBABLE
THAT THESE CRITERIA WILL BE MET EXCEPT IN THE ALLAGASH WHERE THE
FORECAST WILL CALL FOR READINGS JUST ABOVE ZERO. TOWARDS
BANGOR...EXPECT LOW TO MID TEENS AS WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY UP
MOST OF THE NIGHT. ON SATURDAY...THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION IS
EXPECTED TO TRAP A SHALLOW LAYER OF MOISTURE AND CREATE A CLOUDY
AND CHILLY DAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 20F IN THE CROWN OF MAINE AND
UPPER 20S TO NEAR 30F FOR BANGOR AND DOWN EAST. THE SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH CLOUDY
CONDITIONS AND A FEW FLURRIES IN A VERY SHALLOW UNSTABLE LAYER..
AS A RESULT...HAVE GONE ON THE HIGHER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR LOWS ON
SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO THOSE ON
SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FORECAST BECOMES MORE COMPLICATED FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A
WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES UP THE ATLANTIC
COAST. NWP OFFERS A WIDE RANGE OF SOLUTIONS RANGING FROM A
COMPLETE MISS TO MOST OF THE AREA BEING AFFECTED ON TUESDAY. HAVE
GONE WITH STEADILY INCREASING CHANCE POPS MONDAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT...AND SLOWLY DECREASING THEM TUESDAY. THE HIGHEST CHANCES
WILL BE DOWN EAST...DUE BOTH TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE LOW AND THE
FACT THAT A PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW WILL LIKELY PRODUCE LIGHT
RAIN AND DRIZZLE REGARDLESS OF THE LOW`S TRACK. CRITICAL
THICKNESSES WILL BE RISING DURING THIS PERIOD WITH THE MOST LIKELY
P-TYPE BEING RAIN FOR THE DOWN EAST REGION. AFTER THIS SYSTEM
EXITS...A BROAD SYNOPTIC-SCALE SOUTHEAST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BRING
SIGNIFICANT WARMING WEDNESDAY WITH LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE
TRANSITIONING TO STEADY RAIN LATE IN THE DAY. THE SYSTEM HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BRING AN INCH OF RAIN CHRISTMAS EVE...BUT IS LIKELY
TO MOVE THROUGH QUICKLY ENOUGH TO LESSEN HYDRO CONCERNS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR/LIFR CLG AND VSBYS ALL SITES THIS MORN IN SN WILL
IMPROVE TO MVFR OVR DOWNEAST SITES THIS AFTN AND THEN TO NRN TAF
SITES BY TNGT...WHILE DOWNEAST SITES IMPROVE TO VFR TNGT.

SHORT TERM: MVFR CIGS WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT CONDITION FRIDAY
INTO MONDAY. INTERMITTENT PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT LOCATIONS SUCH AS FVE AND IN FLURRIES.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SCA WINDS AND/OR SEAS WILL CONT TDY THRU TNGT...SPCLY
OVR OUTER MZS050-051. WE MERGED LATEST BUOY OBS TO WW3 FCST WV HTS
THIS AFTN...THEN STAYED CLOSE TO WW3 WV HTS THRU TNGT.

SHORT TERM: AN SCA IS LIKELY FRIDAY MORNING...BUT TRANQUIL
CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED UNTIL WEDNESDAY WHEN A GALE IS A STRONG
POSSIBILITY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MEZ001>005-010-011-017-031.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MEZ006-
     032.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ050>052.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...MCW
LONG TERM...MCW
AVIATION...VJN/MCW
MARINE...VJN/MCW




000
FXUS61 KCAR 180842
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
342 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL EXIT ACROSS THE MARITIMES TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION LATER FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
NO CHGS MADE TO SN TOTALS FROM THE LAST UPDATE ATTM. LATEST RADAR
REF IMAGERY DOES SHOW A BAND OF GOOD LGT TO MDT SNFL PIVOTING NE
TO SW FROM EASTON TO JUST EAST OF PATTEN ME. MODELS INDICATE THIS
BANDING TO CONT TO NEARLY 12Z AND THEN BEGIN TO MOVE E INTO NB
PROV. LGT STEADY SNFL OVR THE REST OF THE REGION WILL THEN TAPER
TO SCT-NUMEROUS SN SHWRS THIS AFT...WITH UP TO AN INCH OR TWO OF
ADDITIONAL SNFL AFT 18Z TDY...MAINLY OVR NRN/NERN PTNS OF THE
REGION. SN SHWRS WILL SLOWLY WIND DOWN FROM SW TO NE ACROSS THE
REGION LATE THIS AFTN THRU TNGT WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION...
LINGERING LONGEST OVR THE FAR N. WNTR WX HDLNS MAY BE ABLE TO BE
DROPPED SOONER THAN THE 20Z EXPIRATION TM LATER TDY OVR THE SW
PTNS OF THE HDLN AREA.

OTHERWISE...BRISK NW WINDS WILL CONT TDY INTO THIS EVE AS THE
PRES GRAD ON THE W SIDE OF THE DEPARTING SFC LOW TIGHTENS.
HI TEMPS TDY WILL BE CLOSER TO AVG...BUT LOWS TNGT WILL BE HELD
ABV AVG DUE TO CLD CVR AND A MDT NW BREEZE BRINGING LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF ADDITIONAL LLVL COLD ADVCN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ON FRIDAY...SURFACE AND UPPER RIDGES WILL SLOWLY BUILD. A NORTH TO
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD STRATOCUMULUS FIELDS...BUT
SOME CLEARING WILL MOVE INTO THE ALLAGASH LATER IN THE DAY AND
SPREAD SOUTHWARD DURING FRIDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...CLOUDS WILL FILL
IN AGAIN FROM THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE LATER IN THE NIGHT
AS AN EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPS. THIS TRICKY CLOUD COVER
FORECAST AND SLOWLY DIMINISHING WINDS EQUATES TO A DIFFICULT LOW
TEMPERATURE FORECAST. READINGS BELOW ZERO ARE POSSIBLE WITH CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ALL NIGHT...BUT IT DOES NOT APPEAR PROBABLE
THAT THESE CRITERIA WILL BE MET EXCEPT IN THE ALLAGASH WHERE THE
FORECAST WILL CALL FOR READINGS JUST ABOVE ZERO. TOWARDS
BANGOR...EXPECT LOW TO MID TEENS AS WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY UP
MOST OF THE NIGHT. ON SATURDAY...THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION IS
EXPECTED TO TRAP A SHALLOW LAYER OF MOISTURE AND CREATE A CLOUDY
AND CHILLY DAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 20F IN THE CROWN OF MAINE AND
UPPER 20S TO NEAR 30F FOR BANGOR AND DOWN EAST. THE SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH CLOUDY
CONDITIONS AND A FEW FLURRIES IN A VERY SHALLOW UNSTABLE LAYER..
AS A RESULT...HAVE GONE ON THE HIGHER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR LOWS ON
SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO THOSE ON
SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FORECAST BECOMES MORE COMPLICATED FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A
WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES UP THE ATLANTIC
COAST. NWP OFFERS A WIDE RANGE OF SOLUTIONS RANGING FROM A
COMPLETE MISS TO MOST OF THE AREA BEING AFFECTED ON TUESDAY. HAVE
GONE WITH STEADILY INCREASING CHANCE POPS MONDAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT...AND SLOWLY DECREASING THEM TUESDAY. THE HIGHEST CHANCES
WILL BE DOWN EAST...DUE BOTH TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE LOW AND THE
FACT THAT A PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW WILL LIKELY PRODUCE LIGHT
RAIN AND DRIZZLE REGARDLESS OF THE LOW`S TRACK. CRITICAL
THICKNESSES WILL BE RISING DURING THIS PERIOD WITH THE MOST LIKELY
P-TYPE BEING RAIN FOR THE DOWN EAST REGION. AFTER THIS SYSTEM
EXITS...A BROAD SYNOPTIC-SCALE SOUTHEAST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BRING
SIGNIFICANT WARMING WEDNESDAY WITH LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE
TRANSITIONING TO STEADY RAIN LATE IN THE DAY. THE SYSTEM HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BRING AN INCH OF RAIN CHRISTMAS EVE...BUT IS LIKELY
TO MOVE THROUGH QUICKLY ENOUGH TO LESSEN HYDRO CONCERNS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR/LIFR CLG AND VSBYS ALL SITES THIS MORN IN SN WILL
IMPROVE TO MVFR OVR DOWNEAST SITES THIS AFTN AND THEN TO NRN TAF
SITES BY TNGT...WHILE DOWNEAST SITES IMPROVE TO VFR TNGT.

SHORT TERM: MVFR CIGS WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT CONDITION FRIDAY
INTO MONDAY. INTERMITTENT PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT LOCATIONS SUCH AS FVE AND IN FLURRIES.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SCA WINDS AND/OR SEAS WILL CONT TDY THRU TNGT...SPCLY
OVR OUTER MZS050-051. WE MERGED LATEST BUOY OBS TO WW3 FCST WV HTS
THIS AFTN...THEN STAYED CLOSE TO WW3 WV HTS THRU TNGT.

SHORT TERM: AN SCA IS LIKELY FRIDAY MORNING...BUT TRANQUIL
CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED UNTIL WEDNESDAY WHEN A GALE IS A STRONG
POSSIBILITY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MEZ001>005-010-011-017-031.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MEZ006-
     032.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ050>052.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...MCW
LONG TERM...MCW
AVIATION...VJN/MCW
MARINE...VJN/MCW




000
FXUS61 KCAR 180842
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
342 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL EXIT ACROSS THE MARITIMES TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION LATER FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
NO CHGS MADE TO SN TOTALS FROM THE LAST UPDATE ATTM. LATEST RADAR
REF IMAGERY DOES SHOW A BAND OF GOOD LGT TO MDT SNFL PIVOTING NE
TO SW FROM EASTON TO JUST EAST OF PATTEN ME. MODELS INDICATE THIS
BANDING TO CONT TO NEARLY 12Z AND THEN BEGIN TO MOVE E INTO NB
PROV. LGT STEADY SNFL OVR THE REST OF THE REGION WILL THEN TAPER
TO SCT-NUMEROUS SN SHWRS THIS AFT...WITH UP TO AN INCH OR TWO OF
ADDITIONAL SNFL AFT 18Z TDY...MAINLY OVR NRN/NERN PTNS OF THE
REGION. SN SHWRS WILL SLOWLY WIND DOWN FROM SW TO NE ACROSS THE
REGION LATE THIS AFTN THRU TNGT WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION...
LINGERING LONGEST OVR THE FAR N. WNTR WX HDLNS MAY BE ABLE TO BE
DROPPED SOONER THAN THE 20Z EXPIRATION TM LATER TDY OVR THE SW
PTNS OF THE HDLN AREA.

OTHERWISE...BRISK NW WINDS WILL CONT TDY INTO THIS EVE AS THE
PRES GRAD ON THE W SIDE OF THE DEPARTING SFC LOW TIGHTENS.
HI TEMPS TDY WILL BE CLOSER TO AVG...BUT LOWS TNGT WILL BE HELD
ABV AVG DUE TO CLD CVR AND A MDT NW BREEZE BRINGING LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF ADDITIONAL LLVL COLD ADVCN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ON FRIDAY...SURFACE AND UPPER RIDGES WILL SLOWLY BUILD. A NORTH TO
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD STRATOCUMULUS FIELDS...BUT
SOME CLEARING WILL MOVE INTO THE ALLAGASH LATER IN THE DAY AND
SPREAD SOUTHWARD DURING FRIDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...CLOUDS WILL FILL
IN AGAIN FROM THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE LATER IN THE NIGHT
AS AN EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPS. THIS TRICKY CLOUD COVER
FORECAST AND SLOWLY DIMINISHING WINDS EQUATES TO A DIFFICULT LOW
TEMPERATURE FORECAST. READINGS BELOW ZERO ARE POSSIBLE WITH CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ALL NIGHT...BUT IT DOES NOT APPEAR PROBABLE
THAT THESE CRITERIA WILL BE MET EXCEPT IN THE ALLAGASH WHERE THE
FORECAST WILL CALL FOR READINGS JUST ABOVE ZERO. TOWARDS
BANGOR...EXPECT LOW TO MID TEENS AS WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY UP
MOST OF THE NIGHT. ON SATURDAY...THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION IS
EXPECTED TO TRAP A SHALLOW LAYER OF MOISTURE AND CREATE A CLOUDY
AND CHILLY DAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 20F IN THE CROWN OF MAINE AND
UPPER 20S TO NEAR 30F FOR BANGOR AND DOWN EAST. THE SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH CLOUDY
CONDITIONS AND A FEW FLURRIES IN A VERY SHALLOW UNSTABLE LAYER..
AS A RESULT...HAVE GONE ON THE HIGHER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR LOWS ON
SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO THOSE ON
SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FORECAST BECOMES MORE COMPLICATED FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A
WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES UP THE ATLANTIC
COAST. NWP OFFERS A WIDE RANGE OF SOLUTIONS RANGING FROM A
COMPLETE MISS TO MOST OF THE AREA BEING AFFECTED ON TUESDAY. HAVE
GONE WITH STEADILY INCREASING CHANCE POPS MONDAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT...AND SLOWLY DECREASING THEM TUESDAY. THE HIGHEST CHANCES
WILL BE DOWN EAST...DUE BOTH TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE LOW AND THE
FACT THAT A PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW WILL LIKELY PRODUCE LIGHT
RAIN AND DRIZZLE REGARDLESS OF THE LOW`S TRACK. CRITICAL
THICKNESSES WILL BE RISING DURING THIS PERIOD WITH THE MOST LIKELY
P-TYPE BEING RAIN FOR THE DOWN EAST REGION. AFTER THIS SYSTEM
EXITS...A BROAD SYNOPTIC-SCALE SOUTHEAST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BRING
SIGNIFICANT WARMING WEDNESDAY WITH LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE
TRANSITIONING TO STEADY RAIN LATE IN THE DAY. THE SYSTEM HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BRING AN INCH OF RAIN CHRISTMAS EVE...BUT IS LIKELY
TO MOVE THROUGH QUICKLY ENOUGH TO LESSEN HYDRO CONCERNS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR/LIFR CLG AND VSBYS ALL SITES THIS MORN IN SN WILL
IMPROVE TO MVFR OVR DOWNEAST SITES THIS AFTN AND THEN TO NRN TAF
SITES BY TNGT...WHILE DOWNEAST SITES IMPROVE TO VFR TNGT.

SHORT TERM: MVFR CIGS WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT CONDITION FRIDAY
INTO MONDAY. INTERMITTENT PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT LOCATIONS SUCH AS FVE AND IN FLURRIES.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SCA WINDS AND/OR SEAS WILL CONT TDY THRU TNGT...SPCLY
OVR OUTER MZS050-051. WE MERGED LATEST BUOY OBS TO WW3 FCST WV HTS
THIS AFTN...THEN STAYED CLOSE TO WW3 WV HTS THRU TNGT.

SHORT TERM: AN SCA IS LIKELY FRIDAY MORNING...BUT TRANQUIL
CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED UNTIL WEDNESDAY WHEN A GALE IS A STRONG
POSSIBILITY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MEZ001>005-010-011-017-031.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MEZ006-
     032.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ050>052.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...MCW
LONG TERM...MCW
AVIATION...VJN/MCW
MARINE...VJN/MCW




000
FXUS61 KCAR 180842
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
342 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL EXIT ACROSS THE MARITIMES TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION LATER FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
NO CHGS MADE TO SN TOTALS FROM THE LAST UPDATE ATTM. LATEST RADAR
REF IMAGERY DOES SHOW A BAND OF GOOD LGT TO MDT SNFL PIVOTING NE
TO SW FROM EASTON TO JUST EAST OF PATTEN ME. MODELS INDICATE THIS
BANDING TO CONT TO NEARLY 12Z AND THEN BEGIN TO MOVE E INTO NB
PROV. LGT STEADY SNFL OVR THE REST OF THE REGION WILL THEN TAPER
TO SCT-NUMEROUS SN SHWRS THIS AFT...WITH UP TO AN INCH OR TWO OF
ADDITIONAL SNFL AFT 18Z TDY...MAINLY OVR NRN/NERN PTNS OF THE
REGION. SN SHWRS WILL SLOWLY WIND DOWN FROM SW TO NE ACROSS THE
REGION LATE THIS AFTN THRU TNGT WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION...
LINGERING LONGEST OVR THE FAR N. WNTR WX HDLNS MAY BE ABLE TO BE
DROPPED SOONER THAN THE 20Z EXPIRATION TM LATER TDY OVR THE SW
PTNS OF THE HDLN AREA.

OTHERWISE...BRISK NW WINDS WILL CONT TDY INTO THIS EVE AS THE
PRES GRAD ON THE W SIDE OF THE DEPARTING SFC LOW TIGHTENS.
HI TEMPS TDY WILL BE CLOSER TO AVG...BUT LOWS TNGT WILL BE HELD
ABV AVG DUE TO CLD CVR AND A MDT NW BREEZE BRINGING LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF ADDITIONAL LLVL COLD ADVCN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ON FRIDAY...SURFACE AND UPPER RIDGES WILL SLOWLY BUILD. A NORTH TO
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD STRATOCUMULUS FIELDS...BUT
SOME CLEARING WILL MOVE INTO THE ALLAGASH LATER IN THE DAY AND
SPREAD SOUTHWARD DURING FRIDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...CLOUDS WILL FILL
IN AGAIN FROM THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE LATER IN THE NIGHT
AS AN EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPS. THIS TRICKY CLOUD COVER
FORECAST AND SLOWLY DIMINISHING WINDS EQUATES TO A DIFFICULT LOW
TEMPERATURE FORECAST. READINGS BELOW ZERO ARE POSSIBLE WITH CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ALL NIGHT...BUT IT DOES NOT APPEAR PROBABLE
THAT THESE CRITERIA WILL BE MET EXCEPT IN THE ALLAGASH WHERE THE
FORECAST WILL CALL FOR READINGS JUST ABOVE ZERO. TOWARDS
BANGOR...EXPECT LOW TO MID TEENS AS WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY UP
MOST OF THE NIGHT. ON SATURDAY...THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION IS
EXPECTED TO TRAP A SHALLOW LAYER OF MOISTURE AND CREATE A CLOUDY
AND CHILLY DAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 20F IN THE CROWN OF MAINE AND
UPPER 20S TO NEAR 30F FOR BANGOR AND DOWN EAST. THE SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH CLOUDY
CONDITIONS AND A FEW FLURRIES IN A VERY SHALLOW UNSTABLE LAYER..
AS A RESULT...HAVE GONE ON THE HIGHER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR LOWS ON
SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO THOSE ON
SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FORECAST BECOMES MORE COMPLICATED FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A
WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES UP THE ATLANTIC
COAST. NWP OFFERS A WIDE RANGE OF SOLUTIONS RANGING FROM A
COMPLETE MISS TO MOST OF THE AREA BEING AFFECTED ON TUESDAY. HAVE
GONE WITH STEADILY INCREASING CHANCE POPS MONDAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT...AND SLOWLY DECREASING THEM TUESDAY. THE HIGHEST CHANCES
WILL BE DOWN EAST...DUE BOTH TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE LOW AND THE
FACT THAT A PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW WILL LIKELY PRODUCE LIGHT
RAIN AND DRIZZLE REGARDLESS OF THE LOW`S TRACK. CRITICAL
THICKNESSES WILL BE RISING DURING THIS PERIOD WITH THE MOST LIKELY
P-TYPE BEING RAIN FOR THE DOWN EAST REGION. AFTER THIS SYSTEM
EXITS...A BROAD SYNOPTIC-SCALE SOUTHEAST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BRING
SIGNIFICANT WARMING WEDNESDAY WITH LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE
TRANSITIONING TO STEADY RAIN LATE IN THE DAY. THE SYSTEM HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BRING AN INCH OF RAIN CHRISTMAS EVE...BUT IS LIKELY
TO MOVE THROUGH QUICKLY ENOUGH TO LESSEN HYDRO CONCERNS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR/LIFR CLG AND VSBYS ALL SITES THIS MORN IN SN WILL
IMPROVE TO MVFR OVR DOWNEAST SITES THIS AFTN AND THEN TO NRN TAF
SITES BY TNGT...WHILE DOWNEAST SITES IMPROVE TO VFR TNGT.

SHORT TERM: MVFR CIGS WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT CONDITION FRIDAY
INTO MONDAY. INTERMITTENT PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT LOCATIONS SUCH AS FVE AND IN FLURRIES.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SCA WINDS AND/OR SEAS WILL CONT TDY THRU TNGT...SPCLY
OVR OUTER MZS050-051. WE MERGED LATEST BUOY OBS TO WW3 FCST WV HTS
THIS AFTN...THEN STAYED CLOSE TO WW3 WV HTS THRU TNGT.

SHORT TERM: AN SCA IS LIKELY FRIDAY MORNING...BUT TRANQUIL
CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED UNTIL WEDNESDAY WHEN A GALE IS A STRONG
POSSIBILITY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MEZ001>005-010-011-017-031.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MEZ006-
     032.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ050>052.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...MCW
LONG TERM...MCW
AVIATION...VJN/MCW
MARINE...VJN/MCW



000
FXUS61 KGYX 180840
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
340 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS PUSHED OFF INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES...HOWEVER TROUGH REMAINS OVERHEAD AND SOME SNOW SHOWERS
CAN STILL BE EXPECTED FROM THIS ON THURSDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
WILL START TO BUILD IN THIS EVENING. SOME OCEAN EFFECT SNOW MAY BE
POSSIBLE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY DUE TO WEAK ONSHORE FLOW. A WEAK
COASTAL LOW WILL LIKELY STRENGTHEN AND PASS BY TO OUR WEST
TUESDAY AND MAY SPREAD LIGHT PRECIP INTO NEW ENGLAND. AN INTENSE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOST LIKELY DEVELOP OFF TO OUR WEST ON
WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY BRING HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS WEDNESDAY
AND INTO CHRISTMAS MORNING.


&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE NOW MOVING INTO NOVA SCOTIA WITH UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SPINNING OVER THE NORTHEAST. THE MOST VIGOROUS
SHORT WAVE ENERGY IS TO OUR SOUTH AND OFFSHORE... AS WELL AS TO
OUR NE. THIS WILL KEEP ANY SIGNIFICANT BANDING JUST OUT OF THE
FORECAST AREA AND THUS SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD STAY WITHIN WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE ADVISORIES CONTINUE THROUGH 1 PM
FOR 3-6" OF SNOW. NORTHERN SECTIONS AND ESPECIALLY PORTIONS OF
SOMERSET WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS.

SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF AROUND MIDDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A SURFACE
TROUGH. UPSLOPE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER ALONG THE WHITES
AND THE WESTERN MAINE MOUNTAINS BUT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
VERY LIGHT AS DRY AIR FILTERS IN ALOFT. MODERATE COLD AIR
ADVECTION AS WELL AS A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW NW
WINDS BEHIND THE SURFACE TROUGH TO GUST TO NEAR 30PH AT TIMES.

TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 30S NORTH TO LOWER 40S
SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
COLDER AIR DAMS ALONG THE HIGH TERRAIN TONIGHT WITH TEENS NORTH
AND LOWER TO MID 20S SOUTH. THE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES AND
ALLOWS WINDS TO DECREASE QUITE A BIT OVERNIGHT. THE DOWNSLOPING
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SCOUR CLOUDS OUT OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN
OVERNIGHT.

DRIER AND COLDER AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER IN FRIDAY WITH THE
DEPARTURE OF THE UPPER LOW. LOOKING AT A DRY...COOL AND SOMEWHAT
GUSTY FRIDAY WITH CLOUDS CLEARING OUT OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN AND
THEN EVENTUALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH MOISTURE
LEFT TO SQUEEZE OUT A FEW STRAY SNOWFLAKES OVER THE HIGHEST
PEAKS... BUT LITTLE ELSE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
START OFF WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WHICH SHOULD BRING
FAIR WEATHER INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. THE PATTERN WILL
THEN SIGNIFICANTLY CHANGE FROM ZONAL FLOW TO HIGHLY AMPLIFIED AS A
DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH DIGS OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. THE WEAK COASTAL
LOW THAT THE GFS WAS SHOWING LAST NIGHT FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY IS
NOW COMPLETELY REMOVED FROM THE 00Z RUN. THE CANADIAN STILL
DEVELOPS THIS WEAK SYSTEM OUT OF THE SOUTHERN STREAM...BUT IT IS
NOW WAY TOO FAR EAST TO POSE MUCH OF A THREAT TO OUR AREA. IF WE
SEE ANY LIGHT SNOW BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND IT WILL BE DUE TO
ONSHORE FLOW AND SOME OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS.

MODELS ARE NOW IN DECENT AGREEMENT THAT ANOTHER SOUTHERN STREAM
SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND ON TUESDAY. STILL
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME.  THE OPERATIONAL EURO/GEM/GFS ARE
SHOWING THIS SYSTEM PASSING TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST...HOWEVER TIMING
ISSUES ON WHEN THE LOW PASSES AND HOW FAR NORTH ANY LIGHT PRECIP
MAKES IT INTO NEW ENGLAND IS STILL UP IN THE AIR. 00Z EURO IS ALSO
THE FURTHEST EAST WITH THIS SYSTEM...BRINGING VERY LITTLE IF ANY
MOISTURE INTO NEW ENGLAND.

AFTER THIS SYSTEM PASSES OUR FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO THE LONG WAVE
TROUGH STARTING TO MATERIALIZE TUESDAY IN THE CENTRAL U.S. MODELS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH 500 MB CLOSED LOW FORMING IN THE UPPER
MIDWEST. TROUGH TILTS NEGATIVE BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND VIGOROUS
SHORTWAVE ROTATES AROUND IT...DEVELOPING A DEEP LOW PRESSURE AT
THE SURFACE. AS IT STANDS RIGHT NOW...WE END UP IN THE WARM SECTOR
WITH A DEEP MOISTURE FETCH FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AND ATLANTIC.
EURO ENSEMBLES/GEFS/AND GEM ENSEMBLES ALL ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THIS SCENARIO. HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME CONCERN ON HOW
NEGATIVELY AMPLIFIED THE 500MB TROUGH BECOMES...WITH THE 00Z EURO
NOW SHOWING THE TROUGH TILTING FURTHER EAST...FORMING THE SURFACE
LOW CLOSER TO DELMARVA AND TRACKING RIGHT UP THE HUDSON VALLEY
AND THEN INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. ALTHOUGH THIS IS STILL A WARM
TRACK FOR US...IF IT WERE TO CONTINUE THIS TREND AND FORM THE LOW
FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST OFF THE COAST...THEN OF COURSE THE FORECAST
WILL SIGNIFICANTLY CHANGE. ALSO...JUST CAUGHT THE 00Z EURO
ENSEMBLE AND A SMALL HANDFUL OF THE 50 MEMBERS ARE ALSO SHOWING
THIS SCENARIO.

FOR NOW THOUGH IT APPEARS WE WILL NOT BE LOOKING AT SNOW...BUT
EVEN SO THIS SYSTEM HAS POTENTIAL FOR MAJOR IMPACTS IN OUR AREA.
WITH THE WESTERLY TRACK...PWATS ARE LOOKING TO BE IN THE 1.1 TO
1.2 RANGE...WHICH IS MORE THAN 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE FLOODING AS WE START TO GET
CLOSER...BUT A LOT CAN STILL CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 6 DAYS. THE
POTENTIAL FOR HIGH WINDS WILL ALSO EXIST WITH TIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY
GRADIENT...THIS WILL BE ESPECIALLY TRUE ALONG THE COAST AND HIGHER
TERRAIN.

CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME AS FAR AS TIMING AND TRACK OF
THIS SYSTEM...BUT CONFIDENCE IS GROWING THAT WE WILL SEE PRECIP IN
THE FORM OF RAIN AND NOT SNOW AS MODELS HAVE NOW BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT
IN SHOWING A WESTERN TRACK OVER THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS...WILL
CONTINUE TO HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THIS OVER THE DAYS AHEAD
DUE TO THE POSSIBLE STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON CAUSING MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS WITH SOME
LOWER VISIBILITIES. WE SHOULD SEE IMPROVEMENT TO VFR BY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH NW GUSTING INTO THE LOWER 20S AT TIMES. WINDS
DECREASE AFTER THE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES AFTER DARK.

LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR MVFR CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST DUE TO OCEAN
EFFECT SNOW EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS ARE ON THE LOW SIDE AT THE MOMENT BUT SHOULD
PICK BACK UP WITH THE PASSAGE OF A SURFACE TROUGH AND RENEWED COLD
AIR ADVECTION. MIXING WILL BRING WIND GUSTS INTO THE 20-30 KT
RANGE BY MID MORNING. SEAS ARE CURRENTLY MARGINAL BUT SHOULD DROP
BELOW 5 FT TODAY.

LONG TERM...NO FLAGS EXPECTED AT LEAST THROUGH TUESDAY. THEN A
WEAK COASTAL LOW MAY BRING BORDERLINE SCA CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. A SIGNIFICANT STORM WILL DEVELOP MIDWEEK AND DEPENDING
ON THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM...STORM FORCE WINDS MAY BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MEZ007>009-012>014.
NH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NHZ001-002.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

HANES/KISTNER



000
FXUS61 KGYX 180840
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
340 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS PUSHED OFF INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES...HOWEVER TROUGH REMAINS OVERHEAD AND SOME SNOW SHOWERS
CAN STILL BE EXPECTED FROM THIS ON THURSDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
WILL START TO BUILD IN THIS EVENING. SOME OCEAN EFFECT SNOW MAY BE
POSSIBLE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY DUE TO WEAK ONSHORE FLOW. A WEAK
COASTAL LOW WILL LIKELY STRENGTHEN AND PASS BY TO OUR WEST
TUESDAY AND MAY SPREAD LIGHT PRECIP INTO NEW ENGLAND. AN INTENSE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOST LIKELY DEVELOP OFF TO OUR WEST ON
WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY BRING HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS WEDNESDAY
AND INTO CHRISTMAS MORNING.


&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE NOW MOVING INTO NOVA SCOTIA WITH UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SPINNING OVER THE NORTHEAST. THE MOST VIGOROUS
SHORT WAVE ENERGY IS TO OUR SOUTH AND OFFSHORE... AS WELL AS TO
OUR NE. THIS WILL KEEP ANY SIGNIFICANT BANDING JUST OUT OF THE
FORECAST AREA AND THUS SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD STAY WITHIN WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE ADVISORIES CONTINUE THROUGH 1 PM
FOR 3-6" OF SNOW. NORTHERN SECTIONS AND ESPECIALLY PORTIONS OF
SOMERSET WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS.

SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF AROUND MIDDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A SURFACE
TROUGH. UPSLOPE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER ALONG THE WHITES
AND THE WESTERN MAINE MOUNTAINS BUT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
VERY LIGHT AS DRY AIR FILTERS IN ALOFT. MODERATE COLD AIR
ADVECTION AS WELL AS A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW NW
WINDS BEHIND THE SURFACE TROUGH TO GUST TO NEAR 30PH AT TIMES.

TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 30S NORTH TO LOWER 40S
SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
COLDER AIR DAMS ALONG THE HIGH TERRAIN TONIGHT WITH TEENS NORTH
AND LOWER TO MID 20S SOUTH. THE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES AND
ALLOWS WINDS TO DECREASE QUITE A BIT OVERNIGHT. THE DOWNSLOPING
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SCOUR CLOUDS OUT OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN
OVERNIGHT.

DRIER AND COLDER AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER IN FRIDAY WITH THE
DEPARTURE OF THE UPPER LOW. LOOKING AT A DRY...COOL AND SOMEWHAT
GUSTY FRIDAY WITH CLOUDS CLEARING OUT OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN AND
THEN EVENTUALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH MOISTURE
LEFT TO SQUEEZE OUT A FEW STRAY SNOWFLAKES OVER THE HIGHEST
PEAKS... BUT LITTLE ELSE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
START OFF WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WHICH SHOULD BRING
FAIR WEATHER INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. THE PATTERN WILL
THEN SIGNIFICANTLY CHANGE FROM ZONAL FLOW TO HIGHLY AMPLIFIED AS A
DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH DIGS OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. THE WEAK COASTAL
LOW THAT THE GFS WAS SHOWING LAST NIGHT FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY IS
NOW COMPLETELY REMOVED FROM THE 00Z RUN. THE CANADIAN STILL
DEVELOPS THIS WEAK SYSTEM OUT OF THE SOUTHERN STREAM...BUT IT IS
NOW WAY TOO FAR EAST TO POSE MUCH OF A THREAT TO OUR AREA. IF WE
SEE ANY LIGHT SNOW BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND IT WILL BE DUE TO
ONSHORE FLOW AND SOME OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS.

MODELS ARE NOW IN DECENT AGREEMENT THAT ANOTHER SOUTHERN STREAM
SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND ON TUESDAY. STILL
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME.  THE OPERATIONAL EURO/GEM/GFS ARE
SHOWING THIS SYSTEM PASSING TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST...HOWEVER TIMING
ISSUES ON WHEN THE LOW PASSES AND HOW FAR NORTH ANY LIGHT PRECIP
MAKES IT INTO NEW ENGLAND IS STILL UP IN THE AIR. 00Z EURO IS ALSO
THE FURTHEST EAST WITH THIS SYSTEM...BRINGING VERY LITTLE IF ANY
MOISTURE INTO NEW ENGLAND.

AFTER THIS SYSTEM PASSES OUR FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO THE LONG WAVE
TROUGH STARTING TO MATERIALIZE TUESDAY IN THE CENTRAL U.S. MODELS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH 500 MB CLOSED LOW FORMING IN THE UPPER
MIDWEST. TROUGH TILTS NEGATIVE BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND VIGOROUS
SHORTWAVE ROTATES AROUND IT...DEVELOPING A DEEP LOW PRESSURE AT
THE SURFACE. AS IT STANDS RIGHT NOW...WE END UP IN THE WARM SECTOR
WITH A DEEP MOISTURE FETCH FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AND ATLANTIC.
EURO ENSEMBLES/GEFS/AND GEM ENSEMBLES ALL ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THIS SCENARIO. HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME CONCERN ON HOW
NEGATIVELY AMPLIFIED THE 500MB TROUGH BECOMES...WITH THE 00Z EURO
NOW SHOWING THE TROUGH TILTING FURTHER EAST...FORMING THE SURFACE
LOW CLOSER TO DELMARVA AND TRACKING RIGHT UP THE HUDSON VALLEY
AND THEN INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. ALTHOUGH THIS IS STILL A WARM
TRACK FOR US...IF IT WERE TO CONTINUE THIS TREND AND FORM THE LOW
FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST OFF THE COAST...THEN OF COURSE THE FORECAST
WILL SIGNIFICANTLY CHANGE. ALSO...JUST CAUGHT THE 00Z EURO
ENSEMBLE AND A SMALL HANDFUL OF THE 50 MEMBERS ARE ALSO SHOWING
THIS SCENARIO.

FOR NOW THOUGH IT APPEARS WE WILL NOT BE LOOKING AT SNOW...BUT
EVEN SO THIS SYSTEM HAS POTENTIAL FOR MAJOR IMPACTS IN OUR AREA.
WITH THE WESTERLY TRACK...PWATS ARE LOOKING TO BE IN THE 1.1 TO
1.2 RANGE...WHICH IS MORE THAN 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE FLOODING AS WE START TO GET
CLOSER...BUT A LOT CAN STILL CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 6 DAYS. THE
POTENTIAL FOR HIGH WINDS WILL ALSO EXIST WITH TIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY
GRADIENT...THIS WILL BE ESPECIALLY TRUE ALONG THE COAST AND HIGHER
TERRAIN.

CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME AS FAR AS TIMING AND TRACK OF
THIS SYSTEM...BUT CONFIDENCE IS GROWING THAT WE WILL SEE PRECIP IN
THE FORM OF RAIN AND NOT SNOW AS MODELS HAVE NOW BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT
IN SHOWING A WESTERN TRACK OVER THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS...WILL
CONTINUE TO HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THIS OVER THE DAYS AHEAD
DUE TO THE POSSIBLE STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON CAUSING MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS WITH SOME
LOWER VISIBILITIES. WE SHOULD SEE IMPROVEMENT TO VFR BY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH NW GUSTING INTO THE LOWER 20S AT TIMES. WINDS
DECREASE AFTER THE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES AFTER DARK.

LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR MVFR CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST DUE TO OCEAN
EFFECT SNOW EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS ARE ON THE LOW SIDE AT THE MOMENT BUT SHOULD
PICK BACK UP WITH THE PASSAGE OF A SURFACE TROUGH AND RENEWED COLD
AIR ADVECTION. MIXING WILL BRING WIND GUSTS INTO THE 20-30 KT
RANGE BY MID MORNING. SEAS ARE CURRENTLY MARGINAL BUT SHOULD DROP
BELOW 5 FT TODAY.

LONG TERM...NO FLAGS EXPECTED AT LEAST THROUGH TUESDAY. THEN A
WEAK COASTAL LOW MAY BRING BORDERLINE SCA CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. A SIGNIFICANT STORM WILL DEVELOP MIDWEEK AND DEPENDING
ON THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM...STORM FORCE WINDS MAY BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MEZ007>009-012>014.
NH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NHZ001-002.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

HANES/KISTNER




000
FXUS61 KGYX 180840
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
340 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS PUSHED OFF INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES...HOWEVER TROUGH REMAINS OVERHEAD AND SOME SNOW SHOWERS
CAN STILL BE EXPECTED FROM THIS ON THURSDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
WILL START TO BUILD IN THIS EVENING. SOME OCEAN EFFECT SNOW MAY BE
POSSIBLE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY DUE TO WEAK ONSHORE FLOW. A WEAK
COASTAL LOW WILL LIKELY STRENGTHEN AND PASS BY TO OUR WEST
TUESDAY AND MAY SPREAD LIGHT PRECIP INTO NEW ENGLAND. AN INTENSE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOST LIKELY DEVELOP OFF TO OUR WEST ON
WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY BRING HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS WEDNESDAY
AND INTO CHRISTMAS MORNING.


&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE NOW MOVING INTO NOVA SCOTIA WITH UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SPINNING OVER THE NORTHEAST. THE MOST VIGOROUS
SHORT WAVE ENERGY IS TO OUR SOUTH AND OFFSHORE... AS WELL AS TO
OUR NE. THIS WILL KEEP ANY SIGNIFICANT BANDING JUST OUT OF THE
FORECAST AREA AND THUS SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD STAY WITHIN WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE ADVISORIES CONTINUE THROUGH 1 PM
FOR 3-6" OF SNOW. NORTHERN SECTIONS AND ESPECIALLY PORTIONS OF
SOMERSET WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS.

SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF AROUND MIDDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A SURFACE
TROUGH. UPSLOPE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER ALONG THE WHITES
AND THE WESTERN MAINE MOUNTAINS BUT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
VERY LIGHT AS DRY AIR FILTERS IN ALOFT. MODERATE COLD AIR
ADVECTION AS WELL AS A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW NW
WINDS BEHIND THE SURFACE TROUGH TO GUST TO NEAR 30PH AT TIMES.

TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 30S NORTH TO LOWER 40S
SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
COLDER AIR DAMS ALONG THE HIGH TERRAIN TONIGHT WITH TEENS NORTH
AND LOWER TO MID 20S SOUTH. THE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES AND
ALLOWS WINDS TO DECREASE QUITE A BIT OVERNIGHT. THE DOWNSLOPING
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SCOUR CLOUDS OUT OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN
OVERNIGHT.

DRIER AND COLDER AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER IN FRIDAY WITH THE
DEPARTURE OF THE UPPER LOW. LOOKING AT A DRY...COOL AND SOMEWHAT
GUSTY FRIDAY WITH CLOUDS CLEARING OUT OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN AND
THEN EVENTUALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH MOISTURE
LEFT TO SQUEEZE OUT A FEW STRAY SNOWFLAKES OVER THE HIGHEST
PEAKS... BUT LITTLE ELSE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
START OFF WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WHICH SHOULD BRING
FAIR WEATHER INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. THE PATTERN WILL
THEN SIGNIFICANTLY CHANGE FROM ZONAL FLOW TO HIGHLY AMPLIFIED AS A
DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH DIGS OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. THE WEAK COASTAL
LOW THAT THE GFS WAS SHOWING LAST NIGHT FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY IS
NOW COMPLETELY REMOVED FROM THE 00Z RUN. THE CANADIAN STILL
DEVELOPS THIS WEAK SYSTEM OUT OF THE SOUTHERN STREAM...BUT IT IS
NOW WAY TOO FAR EAST TO POSE MUCH OF A THREAT TO OUR AREA. IF WE
SEE ANY LIGHT SNOW BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND IT WILL BE DUE TO
ONSHORE FLOW AND SOME OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS.

MODELS ARE NOW IN DECENT AGREEMENT THAT ANOTHER SOUTHERN STREAM
SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND ON TUESDAY. STILL
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME.  THE OPERATIONAL EURO/GEM/GFS ARE
SHOWING THIS SYSTEM PASSING TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST...HOWEVER TIMING
ISSUES ON WHEN THE LOW PASSES AND HOW FAR NORTH ANY LIGHT PRECIP
MAKES IT INTO NEW ENGLAND IS STILL UP IN THE AIR. 00Z EURO IS ALSO
THE FURTHEST EAST WITH THIS SYSTEM...BRINGING VERY LITTLE IF ANY
MOISTURE INTO NEW ENGLAND.

AFTER THIS SYSTEM PASSES OUR FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO THE LONG WAVE
TROUGH STARTING TO MATERIALIZE TUESDAY IN THE CENTRAL U.S. MODELS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH 500 MB CLOSED LOW FORMING IN THE UPPER
MIDWEST. TROUGH TILTS NEGATIVE BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND VIGOROUS
SHORTWAVE ROTATES AROUND IT...DEVELOPING A DEEP LOW PRESSURE AT
THE SURFACE. AS IT STANDS RIGHT NOW...WE END UP IN THE WARM SECTOR
WITH A DEEP MOISTURE FETCH FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AND ATLANTIC.
EURO ENSEMBLES/GEFS/AND GEM ENSEMBLES ALL ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THIS SCENARIO. HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME CONCERN ON HOW
NEGATIVELY AMPLIFIED THE 500MB TROUGH BECOMES...WITH THE 00Z EURO
NOW SHOWING THE TROUGH TILTING FURTHER EAST...FORMING THE SURFACE
LOW CLOSER TO DELMARVA AND TRACKING RIGHT UP THE HUDSON VALLEY
AND THEN INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. ALTHOUGH THIS IS STILL A WARM
TRACK FOR US...IF IT WERE TO CONTINUE THIS TREND AND FORM THE LOW
FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST OFF THE COAST...THEN OF COURSE THE FORECAST
WILL SIGNIFICANTLY CHANGE. ALSO...JUST CAUGHT THE 00Z EURO
ENSEMBLE AND A SMALL HANDFUL OF THE 50 MEMBERS ARE ALSO SHOWING
THIS SCENARIO.

FOR NOW THOUGH IT APPEARS WE WILL NOT BE LOOKING AT SNOW...BUT
EVEN SO THIS SYSTEM HAS POTENTIAL FOR MAJOR IMPACTS IN OUR AREA.
WITH THE WESTERLY TRACK...PWATS ARE LOOKING TO BE IN THE 1.1 TO
1.2 RANGE...WHICH IS MORE THAN 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE FLOODING AS WE START TO GET
CLOSER...BUT A LOT CAN STILL CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 6 DAYS. THE
POTENTIAL FOR HIGH WINDS WILL ALSO EXIST WITH TIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY
GRADIENT...THIS WILL BE ESPECIALLY TRUE ALONG THE COAST AND HIGHER
TERRAIN.

CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME AS FAR AS TIMING AND TRACK OF
THIS SYSTEM...BUT CONFIDENCE IS GROWING THAT WE WILL SEE PRECIP IN
THE FORM OF RAIN AND NOT SNOW AS MODELS HAVE NOW BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT
IN SHOWING A WESTERN TRACK OVER THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS...WILL
CONTINUE TO HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THIS OVER THE DAYS AHEAD
DUE TO THE POSSIBLE STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON CAUSING MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS WITH SOME
LOWER VISIBILITIES. WE SHOULD SEE IMPROVEMENT TO VFR BY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH NW GUSTING INTO THE LOWER 20S AT TIMES. WINDS
DECREASE AFTER THE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES AFTER DARK.

LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR MVFR CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST DUE TO OCEAN
EFFECT SNOW EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS ARE ON THE LOW SIDE AT THE MOMENT BUT SHOULD
PICK BACK UP WITH THE PASSAGE OF A SURFACE TROUGH AND RENEWED COLD
AIR ADVECTION. MIXING WILL BRING WIND GUSTS INTO THE 20-30 KT
RANGE BY MID MORNING. SEAS ARE CURRENTLY MARGINAL BUT SHOULD DROP
BELOW 5 FT TODAY.

LONG TERM...NO FLAGS EXPECTED AT LEAST THROUGH TUESDAY. THEN A
WEAK COASTAL LOW MAY BRING BORDERLINE SCA CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. A SIGNIFICANT STORM WILL DEVELOP MIDWEEK AND DEPENDING
ON THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM...STORM FORCE WINDS MAY BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MEZ007>009-012>014.
NH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NHZ001-002.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

HANES/KISTNER



000
FXUS61 KGYX 180840
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
340 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS PUSHED OFF INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES...HOWEVER TROUGH REMAINS OVERHEAD AND SOME SNOW SHOWERS
CAN STILL BE EXPECTED FROM THIS ON THURSDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
WILL START TO BUILD IN THIS EVENING. SOME OCEAN EFFECT SNOW MAY BE
POSSIBLE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY DUE TO WEAK ONSHORE FLOW. A WEAK
COASTAL LOW WILL LIKELY STRENGTHEN AND PASS BY TO OUR WEST
TUESDAY AND MAY SPREAD LIGHT PRECIP INTO NEW ENGLAND. AN INTENSE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOST LIKELY DEVELOP OFF TO OUR WEST ON
WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY BRING HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS WEDNESDAY
AND INTO CHRISTMAS MORNING.


&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE NOW MOVING INTO NOVA SCOTIA WITH UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SPINNING OVER THE NORTHEAST. THE MOST VIGOROUS
SHORT WAVE ENERGY IS TO OUR SOUTH AND OFFSHORE... AS WELL AS TO
OUR NE. THIS WILL KEEP ANY SIGNIFICANT BANDING JUST OUT OF THE
FORECAST AREA AND THUS SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD STAY WITHIN WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE ADVISORIES CONTINUE THROUGH 1 PM
FOR 3-6" OF SNOW. NORTHERN SECTIONS AND ESPECIALLY PORTIONS OF
SOMERSET WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS.

SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF AROUND MIDDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A SURFACE
TROUGH. UPSLOPE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER ALONG THE WHITES
AND THE WESTERN MAINE MOUNTAINS BUT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
VERY LIGHT AS DRY AIR FILTERS IN ALOFT. MODERATE COLD AIR
ADVECTION AS WELL AS A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW NW
WINDS BEHIND THE SURFACE TROUGH TO GUST TO NEAR 30PH AT TIMES.

TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 30S NORTH TO LOWER 40S
SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
COLDER AIR DAMS ALONG THE HIGH TERRAIN TONIGHT WITH TEENS NORTH
AND LOWER TO MID 20S SOUTH. THE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES AND
ALLOWS WINDS TO DECREASE QUITE A BIT OVERNIGHT. THE DOWNSLOPING
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SCOUR CLOUDS OUT OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN
OVERNIGHT.

DRIER AND COLDER AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER IN FRIDAY WITH THE
DEPARTURE OF THE UPPER LOW. LOOKING AT A DRY...COOL AND SOMEWHAT
GUSTY FRIDAY WITH CLOUDS CLEARING OUT OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN AND
THEN EVENTUALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH MOISTURE
LEFT TO SQUEEZE OUT A FEW STRAY SNOWFLAKES OVER THE HIGHEST
PEAKS... BUT LITTLE ELSE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
START OFF WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WHICH SHOULD BRING
FAIR WEATHER INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. THE PATTERN WILL
THEN SIGNIFICANTLY CHANGE FROM ZONAL FLOW TO HIGHLY AMPLIFIED AS A
DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH DIGS OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. THE WEAK COASTAL
LOW THAT THE GFS WAS SHOWING LAST NIGHT FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY IS
NOW COMPLETELY REMOVED FROM THE 00Z RUN. THE CANADIAN STILL
DEVELOPS THIS WEAK SYSTEM OUT OF THE SOUTHERN STREAM...BUT IT IS
NOW WAY TOO FAR EAST TO POSE MUCH OF A THREAT TO OUR AREA. IF WE
SEE ANY LIGHT SNOW BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND IT WILL BE DUE TO
ONSHORE FLOW AND SOME OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS.

MODELS ARE NOW IN DECENT AGREEMENT THAT ANOTHER SOUTHERN STREAM
SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND ON TUESDAY. STILL
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME.  THE OPERATIONAL EURO/GEM/GFS ARE
SHOWING THIS SYSTEM PASSING TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST...HOWEVER TIMING
ISSUES ON WHEN THE LOW PASSES AND HOW FAR NORTH ANY LIGHT PRECIP
MAKES IT INTO NEW ENGLAND IS STILL UP IN THE AIR. 00Z EURO IS ALSO
THE FURTHEST EAST WITH THIS SYSTEM...BRINGING VERY LITTLE IF ANY
MOISTURE INTO NEW ENGLAND.

AFTER THIS SYSTEM PASSES OUR FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO THE LONG WAVE
TROUGH STARTING TO MATERIALIZE TUESDAY IN THE CENTRAL U.S. MODELS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH 500 MB CLOSED LOW FORMING IN THE UPPER
MIDWEST. TROUGH TILTS NEGATIVE BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND VIGOROUS
SHORTWAVE ROTATES AROUND IT...DEVELOPING A DEEP LOW PRESSURE AT
THE SURFACE. AS IT STANDS RIGHT NOW...WE END UP IN THE WARM SECTOR
WITH A DEEP MOISTURE FETCH FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AND ATLANTIC.
EURO ENSEMBLES/GEFS/AND GEM ENSEMBLES ALL ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THIS SCENARIO. HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME CONCERN ON HOW
NEGATIVELY AMPLIFIED THE 500MB TROUGH BECOMES...WITH THE 00Z EURO
NOW SHOWING THE TROUGH TILTING FURTHER EAST...FORMING THE SURFACE
LOW CLOSER TO DELMARVA AND TRACKING RIGHT UP THE HUDSON VALLEY
AND THEN INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. ALTHOUGH THIS IS STILL A WARM
TRACK FOR US...IF IT WERE TO CONTINUE THIS TREND AND FORM THE LOW
FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST OFF THE COAST...THEN OF COURSE THE FORECAST
WILL SIGNIFICANTLY CHANGE. ALSO...JUST CAUGHT THE 00Z EURO
ENSEMBLE AND A SMALL HANDFUL OF THE 50 MEMBERS ARE ALSO SHOWING
THIS SCENARIO.

FOR NOW THOUGH IT APPEARS WE WILL NOT BE LOOKING AT SNOW...BUT
EVEN SO THIS SYSTEM HAS POTENTIAL FOR MAJOR IMPACTS IN OUR AREA.
WITH THE WESTERLY TRACK...PWATS ARE LOOKING TO BE IN THE 1.1 TO
1.2 RANGE...WHICH IS MORE THAN 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE FLOODING AS WE START TO GET
CLOSER...BUT A LOT CAN STILL CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 6 DAYS. THE
POTENTIAL FOR HIGH WINDS WILL ALSO EXIST WITH TIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY
GRADIENT...THIS WILL BE ESPECIALLY TRUE ALONG THE COAST AND HIGHER
TERRAIN.

CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME AS FAR AS TIMING AND TRACK OF
THIS SYSTEM...BUT CONFIDENCE IS GROWING THAT WE WILL SEE PRECIP IN
THE FORM OF RAIN AND NOT SNOW AS MODELS HAVE NOW BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT
IN SHOWING A WESTERN TRACK OVER THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS...WILL
CONTINUE TO HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THIS OVER THE DAYS AHEAD
DUE TO THE POSSIBLE STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON CAUSING MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS WITH SOME
LOWER VISIBILITIES. WE SHOULD SEE IMPROVEMENT TO VFR BY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH NW GUSTING INTO THE LOWER 20S AT TIMES. WINDS
DECREASE AFTER THE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES AFTER DARK.

LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR MVFR CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST DUE TO OCEAN
EFFECT SNOW EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS ARE ON THE LOW SIDE AT THE MOMENT BUT SHOULD
PICK BACK UP WITH THE PASSAGE OF A SURFACE TROUGH AND RENEWED COLD
AIR ADVECTION. MIXING WILL BRING WIND GUSTS INTO THE 20-30 KT
RANGE BY MID MORNING. SEAS ARE CURRENTLY MARGINAL BUT SHOULD DROP
BELOW 5 FT TODAY.

LONG TERM...NO FLAGS EXPECTED AT LEAST THROUGH TUESDAY. THEN A
WEAK COASTAL LOW MAY BRING BORDERLINE SCA CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. A SIGNIFICANT STORM WILL DEVELOP MIDWEEK AND DEPENDING
ON THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM...STORM FORCE WINDS MAY BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MEZ007>009-012>014.
NH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NHZ001-002.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

HANES/KISTNER




000
FXUS61 KCAR 180538
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1238 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE
LATE TONIGHT...THEN BEGIN TO EXIT ACROSS THE MARITIMES THURSDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION LATER FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
12:10 AM UPDATE: MINOR CHGS TO FCST SN TOTALS THIS UPDATE...WITH
SLIGHT INCREASES OVER SE AROOSTOOK AND NRN WASHINGTON COUNTY WHERE
WNTR STM WRNGS ARE IN EFFECT...BASED ON FAIRLY INTENSE RADAR
BANDING OVR THIS AREA. OTHERWISE...MINOR CHGS TO FCST POPS TO
BOOST THEM TO 100 PERCENT OVR THE WNTR HDLN PTNS OF THE FA AT
LEAST TIL ABOUT 12Z. NO CHGS NEEDED TO TEMPS THIS UPDATE.

ORGNL DISC: SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY ACROSS THE GULF
OF MAINE TONIGHT THEN SLOWLY LIFT ACROSS THE MARITIMES THURSDAY.
AT THE SAME TIME...UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS
THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THE INTENSIFYING LOW WILL
DRAW COLDER AIR ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. PRECIPITATION WILL BE
MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...THOUGH A WINTRY MIX COULD OCCUR THIS EVENING. ACROSS
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA A WINTRY MIX WILL TRANSITION
TO SNOW EARLY TONIGHT THEN PERSIST INTO THURSDAY. PRECIPITATION
DOWNEAST WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN THIS
EVENING...BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO A WINTRY MIX AND EVENTUALLY SNOW
WHICH WILL THEN PERSIST INTO THURSDAY. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES
ARE IN EFFECT FOR CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON. GENERALLY EXPECT STORM TOTAL
SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 6 TO 10 INCHES ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS TONIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH 4 TO 8 INCHES ACROSS CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...3 TO 5 INCHES INTERIOR DOWNEAST
WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST. HOWEVER...SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS COULD BE AFFECTED BY HOW
QUICKLY THE TRANSITION TO SNOW OCCURS TONIGHT. ANY ICE
ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND
A TRACE. SNOW WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON HOURS THURSDAY. GUSTY WINDS WILL OCCUR THURSDAY. LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S
NORTH...TO AROUND 30 TO THE LOWER 30S DOWNEAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES
THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 30 TO THE LOWER 30S NORTH...TO THE
MID TO UPPER 30S DOWNEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ANY ONGOING SNOW ACROSS THE FCST AREA WILL TAPERING OFF TO SCT SNOW
SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT...AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEPARTS TO THE
EAST. BY FRIDAY...CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINLY DRY AND COLD AS A
POLAR HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BEGINS TO BUILDS OVER THE NORTHEAST.
THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY AS IT DRIFTS OVER THE NORTHEAST AND ERN CANADA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOOKING AT A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW MAINLY FOR SOUTHERN AREAS
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. APPEARS TO BE A BETTER CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION SOUTH OF OUR AREA, BUT MODELS DISAGREE AS TO HOW
MUCH MAKES IT THIS FAR NORTH WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST TRYING
TO KEEP US DRY. BETTER CHANCE AT A POTENT SYSTEM AROUND WEDNESDAY
OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT (CHRISTMAS EVE). IT APPEARS THIS COULD BE A
WARM SYSTEM WITH A MIX TRANSITIONING TO RAIN FOR MANY AREAS. THIS
IS STILL WAY OUT THERE, HOWEVER, SO OF COURSE THINGS CAN CHANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING WITH
WIDESPREAD SNOW NORTH, AND RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW DOWNEAST. SNOW
WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THURSDAY, WITH PERHAPS KBHB AND
KBGR BECOMING VFR IN THE AFTERNOON. FOR FAR EASTERN MAINE,
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR IN THE AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL INCREASE THURSDAY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM TO 10
TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KNOTS FOR MOST AREAS.

SHORT TERM: CONDITIONS WILL BE IMPROVING ACROSS THE FCST AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER THERE WILL STILL BE SCT SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE CWA...ESPECIALLY NORTH...RESULTING IN AREAS OF IFR/MVFR
VSBYS AND CIGS. SKIES WILL BEGIN TO SCT OUT ON FRIDAY...THEN
BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN RAIN
AND FOG TONIGHT...WITH RAIN AND SNOW THURSDAY.

SHORT TERM: SHORT TERM: ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM...WINDS AND WAVES WILL BE FAIRLY HIGH ACROSS OUR MARINE
FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. AS A RESULT...WE WILL KEEP THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THRU THURSDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MEZ001>005-010-011-017-031.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MEZ006-
     032.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...BERDES
LONG TERM...NORCROSS/BERDES
AVIATION...VJN/BERDES
MARINE...VJN/BERDES




000
FXUS61 KCAR 180538
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1238 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE
LATE TONIGHT...THEN BEGIN TO EXIT ACROSS THE MARITIMES THURSDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION LATER FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
12:10 AM UPDATE: MINOR CHGS TO FCST SN TOTALS THIS UPDATE...WITH
SLIGHT INCREASES OVER SE AROOSTOOK AND NRN WASHINGTON COUNTY WHERE
WNTR STM WRNGS ARE IN EFFECT...BASED ON FAIRLY INTENSE RADAR
BANDING OVR THIS AREA. OTHERWISE...MINOR CHGS TO FCST POPS TO
BOOST THEM TO 100 PERCENT OVR THE WNTR HDLN PTNS OF THE FA AT
LEAST TIL ABOUT 12Z. NO CHGS NEEDED TO TEMPS THIS UPDATE.

ORGNL DISC: SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY ACROSS THE GULF
OF MAINE TONIGHT THEN SLOWLY LIFT ACROSS THE MARITIMES THURSDAY.
AT THE SAME TIME...UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS
THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THE INTENSIFYING LOW WILL
DRAW COLDER AIR ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. PRECIPITATION WILL BE
MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...THOUGH A WINTRY MIX COULD OCCUR THIS EVENING. ACROSS
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA A WINTRY MIX WILL TRANSITION
TO SNOW EARLY TONIGHT THEN PERSIST INTO THURSDAY. PRECIPITATION
DOWNEAST WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN THIS
EVENING...BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO A WINTRY MIX AND EVENTUALLY SNOW
WHICH WILL THEN PERSIST INTO THURSDAY. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES
ARE IN EFFECT FOR CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON. GENERALLY EXPECT STORM TOTAL
SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 6 TO 10 INCHES ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS TONIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH 4 TO 8 INCHES ACROSS CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...3 TO 5 INCHES INTERIOR DOWNEAST
WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST. HOWEVER...SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS COULD BE AFFECTED BY HOW
QUICKLY THE TRANSITION TO SNOW OCCURS TONIGHT. ANY ICE
ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND
A TRACE. SNOW WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON HOURS THURSDAY. GUSTY WINDS WILL OCCUR THURSDAY. LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S
NORTH...TO AROUND 30 TO THE LOWER 30S DOWNEAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES
THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 30 TO THE LOWER 30S NORTH...TO THE
MID TO UPPER 30S DOWNEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ANY ONGOING SNOW ACROSS THE FCST AREA WILL TAPERING OFF TO SCT SNOW
SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT...AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEPARTS TO THE
EAST. BY FRIDAY...CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINLY DRY AND COLD AS A
POLAR HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BEGINS TO BUILDS OVER THE NORTHEAST.
THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY AS IT DRIFTS OVER THE NORTHEAST AND ERN CANADA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOOKING AT A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW MAINLY FOR SOUTHERN AREAS
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. APPEARS TO BE A BETTER CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION SOUTH OF OUR AREA, BUT MODELS DISAGREE AS TO HOW
MUCH MAKES IT THIS FAR NORTH WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST TRYING
TO KEEP US DRY. BETTER CHANCE AT A POTENT SYSTEM AROUND WEDNESDAY
OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT (CHRISTMAS EVE). IT APPEARS THIS COULD BE A
WARM SYSTEM WITH A MIX TRANSITIONING TO RAIN FOR MANY AREAS. THIS
IS STILL WAY OUT THERE, HOWEVER, SO OF COURSE THINGS CAN CHANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING WITH
WIDESPREAD SNOW NORTH, AND RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW DOWNEAST. SNOW
WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THURSDAY, WITH PERHAPS KBHB AND
KBGR BECOMING VFR IN THE AFTERNOON. FOR FAR EASTERN MAINE,
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR IN THE AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL INCREASE THURSDAY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM TO 10
TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KNOTS FOR MOST AREAS.

SHORT TERM: CONDITIONS WILL BE IMPROVING ACROSS THE FCST AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER THERE WILL STILL BE SCT SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE CWA...ESPECIALLY NORTH...RESULTING IN AREAS OF IFR/MVFR
VSBYS AND CIGS. SKIES WILL BEGIN TO SCT OUT ON FRIDAY...THEN
BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN RAIN
AND FOG TONIGHT...WITH RAIN AND SNOW THURSDAY.

SHORT TERM: SHORT TERM: ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM...WINDS AND WAVES WILL BE FAIRLY HIGH ACROSS OUR MARINE
FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. AS A RESULT...WE WILL KEEP THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THRU THURSDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MEZ001>005-010-011-017-031.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MEZ006-
     032.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...BERDES
LONG TERM...NORCROSS/BERDES
AVIATION...VJN/BERDES
MARINE...VJN/BERDES




000
FXUS61 KCAR 180538
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1238 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE
LATE TONIGHT...THEN BEGIN TO EXIT ACROSS THE MARITIMES THURSDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION LATER FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
12:10 AM UPDATE: MINOR CHGS TO FCST SN TOTALS THIS UPDATE...WITH
SLIGHT INCREASES OVER SE AROOSTOOK AND NRN WASHINGTON COUNTY WHERE
WNTR STM WRNGS ARE IN EFFECT...BASED ON FAIRLY INTENSE RADAR
BANDING OVR THIS AREA. OTHERWISE...MINOR CHGS TO FCST POPS TO
BOOST THEM TO 100 PERCENT OVR THE WNTR HDLN PTNS OF THE FA AT
LEAST TIL ABOUT 12Z. NO CHGS NEEDED TO TEMPS THIS UPDATE.

ORGNL DISC: SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY ACROSS THE GULF
OF MAINE TONIGHT THEN SLOWLY LIFT ACROSS THE MARITIMES THURSDAY.
AT THE SAME TIME...UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS
THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THE INTENSIFYING LOW WILL
DRAW COLDER AIR ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. PRECIPITATION WILL BE
MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...THOUGH A WINTRY MIX COULD OCCUR THIS EVENING. ACROSS
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA A WINTRY MIX WILL TRANSITION
TO SNOW EARLY TONIGHT THEN PERSIST INTO THURSDAY. PRECIPITATION
DOWNEAST WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN THIS
EVENING...BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO A WINTRY MIX AND EVENTUALLY SNOW
WHICH WILL THEN PERSIST INTO THURSDAY. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES
ARE IN EFFECT FOR CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON. GENERALLY EXPECT STORM TOTAL
SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 6 TO 10 INCHES ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS TONIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH 4 TO 8 INCHES ACROSS CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...3 TO 5 INCHES INTERIOR DOWNEAST
WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST. HOWEVER...SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS COULD BE AFFECTED BY HOW
QUICKLY THE TRANSITION TO SNOW OCCURS TONIGHT. ANY ICE
ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND
A TRACE. SNOW WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON HOURS THURSDAY. GUSTY WINDS WILL OCCUR THURSDAY. LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S
NORTH...TO AROUND 30 TO THE LOWER 30S DOWNEAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES
THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 30 TO THE LOWER 30S NORTH...TO THE
MID TO UPPER 30S DOWNEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ANY ONGOING SNOW ACROSS THE FCST AREA WILL TAPERING OFF TO SCT SNOW
SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT...AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEPARTS TO THE
EAST. BY FRIDAY...CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINLY DRY AND COLD AS A
POLAR HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BEGINS TO BUILDS OVER THE NORTHEAST.
THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY AS IT DRIFTS OVER THE NORTHEAST AND ERN CANADA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOOKING AT A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW MAINLY FOR SOUTHERN AREAS
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. APPEARS TO BE A BETTER CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION SOUTH OF OUR AREA, BUT MODELS DISAGREE AS TO HOW
MUCH MAKES IT THIS FAR NORTH WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST TRYING
TO KEEP US DRY. BETTER CHANCE AT A POTENT SYSTEM AROUND WEDNESDAY
OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT (CHRISTMAS EVE). IT APPEARS THIS COULD BE A
WARM SYSTEM WITH A MIX TRANSITIONING TO RAIN FOR MANY AREAS. THIS
IS STILL WAY OUT THERE, HOWEVER, SO OF COURSE THINGS CAN CHANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING WITH
WIDESPREAD SNOW NORTH, AND RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW DOWNEAST. SNOW
WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THURSDAY, WITH PERHAPS KBHB AND
KBGR BECOMING VFR IN THE AFTERNOON. FOR FAR EASTERN MAINE,
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR IN THE AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL INCREASE THURSDAY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM TO 10
TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KNOTS FOR MOST AREAS.

SHORT TERM: CONDITIONS WILL BE IMPROVING ACROSS THE FCST AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER THERE WILL STILL BE SCT SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE CWA...ESPECIALLY NORTH...RESULTING IN AREAS OF IFR/MVFR
VSBYS AND CIGS. SKIES WILL BEGIN TO SCT OUT ON FRIDAY...THEN
BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN RAIN
AND FOG TONIGHT...WITH RAIN AND SNOW THURSDAY.

SHORT TERM: SHORT TERM: ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM...WINDS AND WAVES WILL BE FAIRLY HIGH ACROSS OUR MARINE
FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. AS A RESULT...WE WILL KEEP THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THRU THURSDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MEZ001>005-010-011-017-031.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MEZ006-
     032.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...BERDES
LONG TERM...NORCROSS/BERDES
AVIATION...VJN/BERDES
MARINE...VJN/BERDES




000
FXUS61 KCAR 180538
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1238 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE
LATE TONIGHT...THEN BEGIN TO EXIT ACROSS THE MARITIMES THURSDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION LATER FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
12:10 AM UPDATE: MINOR CHGS TO FCST SN TOTALS THIS UPDATE...WITH
SLIGHT INCREASES OVER SE AROOSTOOK AND NRN WASHINGTON COUNTY WHERE
WNTR STM WRNGS ARE IN EFFECT...BASED ON FAIRLY INTENSE RADAR
BANDING OVR THIS AREA. OTHERWISE...MINOR CHGS TO FCST POPS TO
BOOST THEM TO 100 PERCENT OVR THE WNTR HDLN PTNS OF THE FA AT
LEAST TIL ABOUT 12Z. NO CHGS NEEDED TO TEMPS THIS UPDATE.

ORGNL DISC: SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY ACROSS THE GULF
OF MAINE TONIGHT THEN SLOWLY LIFT ACROSS THE MARITIMES THURSDAY.
AT THE SAME TIME...UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS
THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THE INTENSIFYING LOW WILL
DRAW COLDER AIR ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. PRECIPITATION WILL BE
MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...THOUGH A WINTRY MIX COULD OCCUR THIS EVENING. ACROSS
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA A WINTRY MIX WILL TRANSITION
TO SNOW EARLY TONIGHT THEN PERSIST INTO THURSDAY. PRECIPITATION
DOWNEAST WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN THIS
EVENING...BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO A WINTRY MIX AND EVENTUALLY SNOW
WHICH WILL THEN PERSIST INTO THURSDAY. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES
ARE IN EFFECT FOR CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON. GENERALLY EXPECT STORM TOTAL
SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 6 TO 10 INCHES ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS TONIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH 4 TO 8 INCHES ACROSS CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...3 TO 5 INCHES INTERIOR DOWNEAST
WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST. HOWEVER...SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS COULD BE AFFECTED BY HOW
QUICKLY THE TRANSITION TO SNOW OCCURS TONIGHT. ANY ICE
ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND
A TRACE. SNOW WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON HOURS THURSDAY. GUSTY WINDS WILL OCCUR THURSDAY. LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S
NORTH...TO AROUND 30 TO THE LOWER 30S DOWNEAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES
THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 30 TO THE LOWER 30S NORTH...TO THE
MID TO UPPER 30S DOWNEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ANY ONGOING SNOW ACROSS THE FCST AREA WILL TAPERING OFF TO SCT SNOW
SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT...AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEPARTS TO THE
EAST. BY FRIDAY...CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINLY DRY AND COLD AS A
POLAR HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BEGINS TO BUILDS OVER THE NORTHEAST.
THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY AS IT DRIFTS OVER THE NORTHEAST AND ERN CANADA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOOKING AT A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW MAINLY FOR SOUTHERN AREAS
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. APPEARS TO BE A BETTER CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION SOUTH OF OUR AREA, BUT MODELS DISAGREE AS TO HOW
MUCH MAKES IT THIS FAR NORTH WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST TRYING
TO KEEP US DRY. BETTER CHANCE AT A POTENT SYSTEM AROUND WEDNESDAY
OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT (CHRISTMAS EVE). IT APPEARS THIS COULD BE A
WARM SYSTEM WITH A MIX TRANSITIONING TO RAIN FOR MANY AREAS. THIS
IS STILL WAY OUT THERE, HOWEVER, SO OF COURSE THINGS CAN CHANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING WITH
WIDESPREAD SNOW NORTH, AND RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW DOWNEAST. SNOW
WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THURSDAY, WITH PERHAPS KBHB AND
KBGR BECOMING VFR IN THE AFTERNOON. FOR FAR EASTERN MAINE,
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR IN THE AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL INCREASE THURSDAY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM TO 10
TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KNOTS FOR MOST AREAS.

SHORT TERM: CONDITIONS WILL BE IMPROVING ACROSS THE FCST AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER THERE WILL STILL BE SCT SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE CWA...ESPECIALLY NORTH...RESULTING IN AREAS OF IFR/MVFR
VSBYS AND CIGS. SKIES WILL BEGIN TO SCT OUT ON FRIDAY...THEN
BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN RAIN
AND FOG TONIGHT...WITH RAIN AND SNOW THURSDAY.

SHORT TERM: SHORT TERM: ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM...WINDS AND WAVES WILL BE FAIRLY HIGH ACROSS OUR MARINE
FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. AS A RESULT...WE WILL KEEP THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THRU THURSDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MEZ001>005-010-011-017-031.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MEZ006-
     032.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...BERDES
LONG TERM...NORCROSS/BERDES
AVIATION...VJN/BERDES
MARINE...VJN/BERDES




000
FXUS61 KGYX 180402
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1102 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY EXIT THE GULF OF MAINE
THIS EVENING. BY THURSDAY MORNING...THE LOW WILL BE OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND IT.
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A WEAK COASTAL SYSTEM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
THAT MAY SPREAD SOME LIGHT SNOW INTO THE REGION. ANOTHER SYSTEM
WILL LIKELY STRENGTHEN AND PASS BY TO OUR WEST DURING THE MID
WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...

1100 PM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO REFLECT CURRENT MESONET IN 1ST
PERIOD GRIDS.

730 PM...PRECIPITATION WAS GRADUALLY CHANGING TO SNOW AND SLEET
ACROSS THE AREA. I MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO 1ST PERIOD GRIDS TO
REFLECT THE CURRENT MESONET FOR THIS ESTF UPDATE.

PREV DISC...
ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRES IN THE GULF OF ME ATTM...WITH SFC TROF
EXTENDING BACK INTO SRN QUEBEC AND ONTARIO. OVERNIGHT UPPER LOW
PRES WILL DRIFT UNDERNEATH THE MAJORITY OF THE CWFA. THIS SHOULD
HOLD TROF BACK ACROSS NRN ZONES...AND KEEP FOCUS OF MOISTURE
STREAM INTO THE WRN ME MTNS AND PARTS OF THE WHITES. HI-RES MODEL
FORECASTS INDICATE THAT MID LEVEL WARMTH WAS LIKELY MAXIMIZED A
COUPLE HOURS AGO...AND WE SHOULD SEE A STEADY COOLING TREND ALOFT.
THIS IS CONFIRMED BY PLYMOUTH STATE VERTICALLY POINTED RADAR
SHOWING SNOW LEVELS DECREASING OVER THE LAST HOUR. SPOTTER REPORTS
INDICATE MANY NRN MTNS AND VALLEYS ALIKE CHANGED OVER TO SN FOR
GOOD IN THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS AS WELL. ELY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL
ALSO CONTINUE TO DYNAMICALLY COOL THE COLUMN AND KEEP THE MTNS
SN THRU THE NIGHT. FORECAST MODEL ALSO DEEPEN THE H7 LOW THRU
MIDNIGHT...CLOSING OFF CONTOURS AS IT CROSSES THE STATE OF ME.
THIS SHOULD PROVIDE ENHANCED LIFT TO THE NW OF THE MID LEVEL LOW
TRACK...AGAIN KEEPING SNWFL FOCUSED OVER NRN ZONES. A BLEND OF THE
RFC QPF AND HI-RES MODEL GUIDANCE WAS USED TO PROVIDE A
REASONABLE REPRESENTATION OF HIGHER TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT. SNWFL
WILL WAX AND WANE A BIT THIS EVENING AS THE DRY SLOT LIFTS THRU
THE AREA...BUT I EXPECT FORCING TO REFOCUS LATER TONIGHT INTO THU.
HAVE EXPANDED THE WINTER WX ADVISORIES INTO COOS COUNTY NH...AND
ALL OF OXFORD...FRANKLIN...AND CENTRAL/SRN SOMERSET IN ME. THIS
WILL BE A RELATIVELY LONG DURATION LIGHT SNWFL EVENT...WHICH
COMPLICATES THINGS A BIT. I COULD EASILY SEE 6+ INCHES OF SNWFL
FOR NRN ZONES...BUT IT MAY FALL IN 18 OR 24 HOURS...SHY OF THE 9
INCH CRITERIA BEYOND 12 HOURS. A HEAVIER BAND OF SNWFL THIS
EVENING ACROSS NRN FRANKLIN OR CENTRAL SOMERSET COULD WARRANT AN
UPGRADE TO A WARNING IN THOSE AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
UPPER LOW PULLS INTO THE MARITIMES THU...BUT COOL...MOIST...NWLY
FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE REGION. THE FORCED ASCENT OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN WILL KEEP SHSN GOING IN THE FAVORED NW UPSLOPE REGIONS.
THIS IS LIKELY WHEN THE BULK OF THE ACCUMULATIONS WILL COME FOR
NRN NH AND THE WHITE MTNS. NW WINDS WILL ALSO BE GUSTY ALONG THE
COAST AND INTERIOR.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE EXITS INTO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING SOUTH AND INTO NEW ENGLAND FROM CANADA.

MODELS THEN BRING A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE UP THE COAST MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. THERE IS NOT MUCH CONSENSUS WITH THE 12Z PACKAGE WITH
THIS FEATURE. CURRENTLY THE EURO IS THE FURTHEST WEST WITH THE
POSITION OF THE SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL FEATURES.

ALL EYES THEN SHIFT TO THE 24TH...AS LOW PRESSURE RAPIDLY
INTENSIFIES AND MOVES NORTH. QUESTION IS WHETHER THE SYSTEM
FOLLOWS THE COASTLINE OR CROSSES OVER THE GREAT LAKES. FOR
NOW...CONFIDENCE LEVEL IS LOW. IF THE GREAT LAKES TRACK
VERIFIES...EXPECT LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND HIGH WINDS OVER THE
REGION. SOUTHEASTERLY GRADIENT WILL LIKELY REACH STORM FORCE FOR A
SHORT PERIOD OVER THE WATERS WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS OVER LAND.
STRONG WINDS WOULD LIKELY REACH THE COASTLINE LATE WEDNESDAY ALONG
THE COAST AND HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...AREAS OF IFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NEWD UP
THE COAST THIS EVENING...WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR LINGERING IN ITS
WAKE. GRADUALLY SHRA WILL MIX WITH AND TRANSITION TO SHSN BY
THU. THIS WILL LEAD TO SCT IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES NEAR THE COAST.
IN THE MTNS...IFR CONDITIONS WILL LINGER THRU THU. GUSTY NW WINDS
ARE POSSIBLE THU AS WELL...WITH GUSTS AOA 20 KTS.

LONG TERM...A FEW AREAS OF MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING IN PATCHY
LIGHT SNOW MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. IFR CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING WITH A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING BY TO OUR
WEST WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...HAVE EXTENDED THE SCA IN TIME AND IN AREA TO THE
BAYS...AS WINDS LOOK TO INCREASE IN NW FLOW THU. WINDS WILL RELAX
BRIEFLY TONIGHT...BUT STEADILY INCREASE BY MORNING AS CAA
COMMENCES.

LONG TERM...SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUESDAY...WITH STORM FORCE
WINDS POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY AS A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
BRINGS HIGH SOUTHEAST WINDS TO THE REGION.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR MEZ007>009-
     012>014.
NH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR NHZ001-002.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$
ES



000
FXUS61 KGYX 180402
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1102 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY EXIT THE GULF OF MAINE
THIS EVENING. BY THURSDAY MORNING...THE LOW WILL BE OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND IT.
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A WEAK COASTAL SYSTEM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
THAT MAY SPREAD SOME LIGHT SNOW INTO THE REGION. ANOTHER SYSTEM
WILL LIKELY STRENGTHEN AND PASS BY TO OUR WEST DURING THE MID
WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...

1100 PM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO REFLECT CURRENT MESONET IN 1ST
PERIOD GRIDS.

730 PM...PRECIPITATION WAS GRADUALLY CHANGING TO SNOW AND SLEET
ACROSS THE AREA. I MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO 1ST PERIOD GRIDS TO
REFLECT THE CURRENT MESONET FOR THIS ESTF UPDATE.

PREV DISC...
ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRES IN THE GULF OF ME ATTM...WITH SFC TROF
EXTENDING BACK INTO SRN QUEBEC AND ONTARIO. OVERNIGHT UPPER LOW
PRES WILL DRIFT UNDERNEATH THE MAJORITY OF THE CWFA. THIS SHOULD
HOLD TROF BACK ACROSS NRN ZONES...AND KEEP FOCUS OF MOISTURE
STREAM INTO THE WRN ME MTNS AND PARTS OF THE WHITES. HI-RES MODEL
FORECASTS INDICATE THAT MID LEVEL WARMTH WAS LIKELY MAXIMIZED A
COUPLE HOURS AGO...AND WE SHOULD SEE A STEADY COOLING TREND ALOFT.
THIS IS CONFIRMED BY PLYMOUTH STATE VERTICALLY POINTED RADAR
SHOWING SNOW LEVELS DECREASING OVER THE LAST HOUR. SPOTTER REPORTS
INDICATE MANY NRN MTNS AND VALLEYS ALIKE CHANGED OVER TO SN FOR
GOOD IN THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS AS WELL. ELY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL
ALSO CONTINUE TO DYNAMICALLY COOL THE COLUMN AND KEEP THE MTNS
SN THRU THE NIGHT. FORECAST MODEL ALSO DEEPEN THE H7 LOW THRU
MIDNIGHT...CLOSING OFF CONTOURS AS IT CROSSES THE STATE OF ME.
THIS SHOULD PROVIDE ENHANCED LIFT TO THE NW OF THE MID LEVEL LOW
TRACK...AGAIN KEEPING SNWFL FOCUSED OVER NRN ZONES. A BLEND OF THE
RFC QPF AND HI-RES MODEL GUIDANCE WAS USED TO PROVIDE A
REASONABLE REPRESENTATION OF HIGHER TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT. SNWFL
WILL WAX AND WANE A BIT THIS EVENING AS THE DRY SLOT LIFTS THRU
THE AREA...BUT I EXPECT FORCING TO REFOCUS LATER TONIGHT INTO THU.
HAVE EXPANDED THE WINTER WX ADVISORIES INTO COOS COUNTY NH...AND
ALL OF OXFORD...FRANKLIN...AND CENTRAL/SRN SOMERSET IN ME. THIS
WILL BE A RELATIVELY LONG DURATION LIGHT SNWFL EVENT...WHICH
COMPLICATES THINGS A BIT. I COULD EASILY SEE 6+ INCHES OF SNWFL
FOR NRN ZONES...BUT IT MAY FALL IN 18 OR 24 HOURS...SHY OF THE 9
INCH CRITERIA BEYOND 12 HOURS. A HEAVIER BAND OF SNWFL THIS
EVENING ACROSS NRN FRANKLIN OR CENTRAL SOMERSET COULD WARRANT AN
UPGRADE TO A WARNING IN THOSE AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
UPPER LOW PULLS INTO THE MARITIMES THU...BUT COOL...MOIST...NWLY
FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE REGION. THE FORCED ASCENT OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN WILL KEEP SHSN GOING IN THE FAVORED NW UPSLOPE REGIONS.
THIS IS LIKELY WHEN THE BULK OF THE ACCUMULATIONS WILL COME FOR
NRN NH AND THE WHITE MTNS. NW WINDS WILL ALSO BE GUSTY ALONG THE
COAST AND INTERIOR.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE EXITS INTO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING SOUTH AND INTO NEW ENGLAND FROM CANADA.

MODELS THEN BRING A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE UP THE COAST MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. THERE IS NOT MUCH CONSENSUS WITH THE 12Z PACKAGE WITH
THIS FEATURE. CURRENTLY THE EURO IS THE FURTHEST WEST WITH THE
POSITION OF THE SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL FEATURES.

ALL EYES THEN SHIFT TO THE 24TH...AS LOW PRESSURE RAPIDLY
INTENSIFIES AND MOVES NORTH. QUESTION IS WHETHER THE SYSTEM
FOLLOWS THE COASTLINE OR CROSSES OVER THE GREAT LAKES. FOR
NOW...CONFIDENCE LEVEL IS LOW. IF THE GREAT LAKES TRACK
VERIFIES...EXPECT LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND HIGH WINDS OVER THE
REGION. SOUTHEASTERLY GRADIENT WILL LIKELY REACH STORM FORCE FOR A
SHORT PERIOD OVER THE WATERS WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS OVER LAND.
STRONG WINDS WOULD LIKELY REACH THE COASTLINE LATE WEDNESDAY ALONG
THE COAST AND HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...AREAS OF IFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NEWD UP
THE COAST THIS EVENING...WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR LINGERING IN ITS
WAKE. GRADUALLY SHRA WILL MIX WITH AND TRANSITION TO SHSN BY
THU. THIS WILL LEAD TO SCT IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES NEAR THE COAST.
IN THE MTNS...IFR CONDITIONS WILL LINGER THRU THU. GUSTY NW WINDS
ARE POSSIBLE THU AS WELL...WITH GUSTS AOA 20 KTS.

LONG TERM...A FEW AREAS OF MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING IN PATCHY
LIGHT SNOW MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. IFR CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING WITH A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING BY TO OUR
WEST WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...HAVE EXTENDED THE SCA IN TIME AND IN AREA TO THE
BAYS...AS WINDS LOOK TO INCREASE IN NW FLOW THU. WINDS WILL RELAX
BRIEFLY TONIGHT...BUT STEADILY INCREASE BY MORNING AS CAA
COMMENCES.

LONG TERM...SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUESDAY...WITH STORM FORCE
WINDS POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY AS A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
BRINGS HIGH SOUTHEAST WINDS TO THE REGION.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR MEZ007>009-
     012>014.
NH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR NHZ001-002.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$
ES



000
FXUS61 KGYX 180402
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1102 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY EXIT THE GULF OF MAINE
THIS EVENING. BY THURSDAY MORNING...THE LOW WILL BE OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND IT.
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A WEAK COASTAL SYSTEM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
THAT MAY SPREAD SOME LIGHT SNOW INTO THE REGION. ANOTHER SYSTEM
WILL LIKELY STRENGTHEN AND PASS BY TO OUR WEST DURING THE MID
WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...

1100 PM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO REFLECT CURRENT MESONET IN 1ST
PERIOD GRIDS.

730 PM...PRECIPITATION WAS GRADUALLY CHANGING TO SNOW AND SLEET
ACROSS THE AREA. I MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO 1ST PERIOD GRIDS TO
REFLECT THE CURRENT MESONET FOR THIS ESTF UPDATE.

PREV DISC...
ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRES IN THE GULF OF ME ATTM...WITH SFC TROF
EXTENDING BACK INTO SRN QUEBEC AND ONTARIO. OVERNIGHT UPPER LOW
PRES WILL DRIFT UNDERNEATH THE MAJORITY OF THE CWFA. THIS SHOULD
HOLD TROF BACK ACROSS NRN ZONES...AND KEEP FOCUS OF MOISTURE
STREAM INTO THE WRN ME MTNS AND PARTS OF THE WHITES. HI-RES MODEL
FORECASTS INDICATE THAT MID LEVEL WARMTH WAS LIKELY MAXIMIZED A
COUPLE HOURS AGO...AND WE SHOULD SEE A STEADY COOLING TREND ALOFT.
THIS IS CONFIRMED BY PLYMOUTH STATE VERTICALLY POINTED RADAR
SHOWING SNOW LEVELS DECREASING OVER THE LAST HOUR. SPOTTER REPORTS
INDICATE MANY NRN MTNS AND VALLEYS ALIKE CHANGED OVER TO SN FOR
GOOD IN THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS AS WELL. ELY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL
ALSO CONTINUE TO DYNAMICALLY COOL THE COLUMN AND KEEP THE MTNS
SN THRU THE NIGHT. FORECAST MODEL ALSO DEEPEN THE H7 LOW THRU
MIDNIGHT...CLOSING OFF CONTOURS AS IT CROSSES THE STATE OF ME.
THIS SHOULD PROVIDE ENHANCED LIFT TO THE NW OF THE MID LEVEL LOW
TRACK...AGAIN KEEPING SNWFL FOCUSED OVER NRN ZONES. A BLEND OF THE
RFC QPF AND HI-RES MODEL GUIDANCE WAS USED TO PROVIDE A
REASONABLE REPRESENTATION OF HIGHER TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT. SNWFL
WILL WAX AND WANE A BIT THIS EVENING AS THE DRY SLOT LIFTS THRU
THE AREA...BUT I EXPECT FORCING TO REFOCUS LATER TONIGHT INTO THU.
HAVE EXPANDED THE WINTER WX ADVISORIES INTO COOS COUNTY NH...AND
ALL OF OXFORD...FRANKLIN...AND CENTRAL/SRN SOMERSET IN ME. THIS
WILL BE A RELATIVELY LONG DURATION LIGHT SNWFL EVENT...WHICH
COMPLICATES THINGS A BIT. I COULD EASILY SEE 6+ INCHES OF SNWFL
FOR NRN ZONES...BUT IT MAY FALL IN 18 OR 24 HOURS...SHY OF THE 9
INCH CRITERIA BEYOND 12 HOURS. A HEAVIER BAND OF SNWFL THIS
EVENING ACROSS NRN FRANKLIN OR CENTRAL SOMERSET COULD WARRANT AN
UPGRADE TO A WARNING IN THOSE AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
UPPER LOW PULLS INTO THE MARITIMES THU...BUT COOL...MOIST...NWLY
FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE REGION. THE FORCED ASCENT OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN WILL KEEP SHSN GOING IN THE FAVORED NW UPSLOPE REGIONS.
THIS IS LIKELY WHEN THE BULK OF THE ACCUMULATIONS WILL COME FOR
NRN NH AND THE WHITE MTNS. NW WINDS WILL ALSO BE GUSTY ALONG THE
COAST AND INTERIOR.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE EXITS INTO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING SOUTH AND INTO NEW ENGLAND FROM CANADA.

MODELS THEN BRING A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE UP THE COAST MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. THERE IS NOT MUCH CONSENSUS WITH THE 12Z PACKAGE WITH
THIS FEATURE. CURRENTLY THE EURO IS THE FURTHEST WEST WITH THE
POSITION OF THE SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL FEATURES.

ALL EYES THEN SHIFT TO THE 24TH...AS LOW PRESSURE RAPIDLY
INTENSIFIES AND MOVES NORTH. QUESTION IS WHETHER THE SYSTEM
FOLLOWS THE COASTLINE OR CROSSES OVER THE GREAT LAKES. FOR
NOW...CONFIDENCE LEVEL IS LOW. IF THE GREAT LAKES TRACK
VERIFIES...EXPECT LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND HIGH WINDS OVER THE
REGION. SOUTHEASTERLY GRADIENT WILL LIKELY REACH STORM FORCE FOR A
SHORT PERIOD OVER THE WATERS WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS OVER LAND.
STRONG WINDS WOULD LIKELY REACH THE COASTLINE LATE WEDNESDAY ALONG
THE COAST AND HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...AREAS OF IFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NEWD UP
THE COAST THIS EVENING...WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR LINGERING IN ITS
WAKE. GRADUALLY SHRA WILL MIX WITH AND TRANSITION TO SHSN BY
THU. THIS WILL LEAD TO SCT IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES NEAR THE COAST.
IN THE MTNS...IFR CONDITIONS WILL LINGER THRU THU. GUSTY NW WINDS
ARE POSSIBLE THU AS WELL...WITH GUSTS AOA 20 KTS.

LONG TERM...A FEW AREAS OF MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING IN PATCHY
LIGHT SNOW MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. IFR CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING WITH A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING BY TO OUR
WEST WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...HAVE EXTENDED THE SCA IN TIME AND IN AREA TO THE
BAYS...AS WINDS LOOK TO INCREASE IN NW FLOW THU. WINDS WILL RELAX
BRIEFLY TONIGHT...BUT STEADILY INCREASE BY MORNING AS CAA
COMMENCES.

LONG TERM...SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUESDAY...WITH STORM FORCE
WINDS POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY AS A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
BRINGS HIGH SOUTHEAST WINDS TO THE REGION.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR MEZ007>009-
     012>014.
NH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR NHZ001-002.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$
ES



000
FXUS61 KGYX 180402
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1102 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY EXIT THE GULF OF MAINE
THIS EVENING. BY THURSDAY MORNING...THE LOW WILL BE OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND IT.
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A WEAK COASTAL SYSTEM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
THAT MAY SPREAD SOME LIGHT SNOW INTO THE REGION. ANOTHER SYSTEM
WILL LIKELY STRENGTHEN AND PASS BY TO OUR WEST DURING THE MID
WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...

1100 PM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO REFLECT CURRENT MESONET IN 1ST
PERIOD GRIDS.

730 PM...PRECIPITATION WAS GRADUALLY CHANGING TO SNOW AND SLEET
ACROSS THE AREA. I MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO 1ST PERIOD GRIDS TO
REFLECT THE CURRENT MESONET FOR THIS ESTF UPDATE.

PREV DISC...
ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRES IN THE GULF OF ME ATTM...WITH SFC TROF
EXTENDING BACK INTO SRN QUEBEC AND ONTARIO. OVERNIGHT UPPER LOW
PRES WILL DRIFT UNDERNEATH THE MAJORITY OF THE CWFA. THIS SHOULD
HOLD TROF BACK ACROSS NRN ZONES...AND KEEP FOCUS OF MOISTURE
STREAM INTO THE WRN ME MTNS AND PARTS OF THE WHITES. HI-RES MODEL
FORECASTS INDICATE THAT MID LEVEL WARMTH WAS LIKELY MAXIMIZED A
COUPLE HOURS AGO...AND WE SHOULD SEE A STEADY COOLING TREND ALOFT.
THIS IS CONFIRMED BY PLYMOUTH STATE VERTICALLY POINTED RADAR
SHOWING SNOW LEVELS DECREASING OVER THE LAST HOUR. SPOTTER REPORTS
INDICATE MANY NRN MTNS AND VALLEYS ALIKE CHANGED OVER TO SN FOR
GOOD IN THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS AS WELL. ELY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL
ALSO CONTINUE TO DYNAMICALLY COOL THE COLUMN AND KEEP THE MTNS
SN THRU THE NIGHT. FORECAST MODEL ALSO DEEPEN THE H7 LOW THRU
MIDNIGHT...CLOSING OFF CONTOURS AS IT CROSSES THE STATE OF ME.
THIS SHOULD PROVIDE ENHANCED LIFT TO THE NW OF THE MID LEVEL LOW
TRACK...AGAIN KEEPING SNWFL FOCUSED OVER NRN ZONES. A BLEND OF THE
RFC QPF AND HI-RES MODEL GUIDANCE WAS USED TO PROVIDE A
REASONABLE REPRESENTATION OF HIGHER TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT. SNWFL
WILL WAX AND WANE A BIT THIS EVENING AS THE DRY SLOT LIFTS THRU
THE AREA...BUT I EXPECT FORCING TO REFOCUS LATER TONIGHT INTO THU.
HAVE EXPANDED THE WINTER WX ADVISORIES INTO COOS COUNTY NH...AND
ALL OF OXFORD...FRANKLIN...AND CENTRAL/SRN SOMERSET IN ME. THIS
WILL BE A RELATIVELY LONG DURATION LIGHT SNWFL EVENT...WHICH
COMPLICATES THINGS A BIT. I COULD EASILY SEE 6+ INCHES OF SNWFL
FOR NRN ZONES...BUT IT MAY FALL IN 18 OR 24 HOURS...SHY OF THE 9
INCH CRITERIA BEYOND 12 HOURS. A HEAVIER BAND OF SNWFL THIS
EVENING ACROSS NRN FRANKLIN OR CENTRAL SOMERSET COULD WARRANT AN
UPGRADE TO A WARNING IN THOSE AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
UPPER LOW PULLS INTO THE MARITIMES THU...BUT COOL...MOIST...NWLY
FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE REGION. THE FORCED ASCENT OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN WILL KEEP SHSN GOING IN THE FAVORED NW UPSLOPE REGIONS.
THIS IS LIKELY WHEN THE BULK OF THE ACCUMULATIONS WILL COME FOR
NRN NH AND THE WHITE MTNS. NW WINDS WILL ALSO BE GUSTY ALONG THE
COAST AND INTERIOR.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE EXITS INTO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING SOUTH AND INTO NEW ENGLAND FROM CANADA.

MODELS THEN BRING A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE UP THE COAST MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. THERE IS NOT MUCH CONSENSUS WITH THE 12Z PACKAGE WITH
THIS FEATURE. CURRENTLY THE EURO IS THE FURTHEST WEST WITH THE
POSITION OF THE SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL FEATURES.

ALL EYES THEN SHIFT TO THE 24TH...AS LOW PRESSURE RAPIDLY
INTENSIFIES AND MOVES NORTH. QUESTION IS WHETHER THE SYSTEM
FOLLOWS THE COASTLINE OR CROSSES OVER THE GREAT LAKES. FOR
NOW...CONFIDENCE LEVEL IS LOW. IF THE GREAT LAKES TRACK
VERIFIES...EXPECT LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND HIGH WINDS OVER THE
REGION. SOUTHEASTERLY GRADIENT WILL LIKELY REACH STORM FORCE FOR A
SHORT PERIOD OVER THE WATERS WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS OVER LAND.
STRONG WINDS WOULD LIKELY REACH THE COASTLINE LATE WEDNESDAY ALONG
THE COAST AND HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...AREAS OF IFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NEWD UP
THE COAST THIS EVENING...WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR LINGERING IN ITS
WAKE. GRADUALLY SHRA WILL MIX WITH AND TRANSITION TO SHSN BY
THU. THIS WILL LEAD TO SCT IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES NEAR THE COAST.
IN THE MTNS...IFR CONDITIONS WILL LINGER THRU THU. GUSTY NW WINDS
ARE POSSIBLE THU AS WELL...WITH GUSTS AOA 20 KTS.

LONG TERM...A FEW AREAS OF MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING IN PATCHY
LIGHT SNOW MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. IFR CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING WITH A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING BY TO OUR
WEST WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...HAVE EXTENDED THE SCA IN TIME AND IN AREA TO THE
BAYS...AS WINDS LOOK TO INCREASE IN NW FLOW THU. WINDS WILL RELAX
BRIEFLY TONIGHT...BUT STEADILY INCREASE BY MORNING AS CAA
COMMENCES.

LONG TERM...SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUESDAY...WITH STORM FORCE
WINDS POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY AS A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
BRINGS HIGH SOUTHEAST WINDS TO THE REGION.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR MEZ007>009-
     012>014.
NH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR NHZ001-002.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$
ES



000
FXUS61 KCAR 180214
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
914 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE
TONIGHT...THEN BEGIN TO EXIT ACROSS THE MARITIMES THURSDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION LATER FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
9 PM UPDATE...RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW HEAVIEST SNOW OVER EAST
CENTRAL AREAS WITH SOME MODERATE SNOW BEGINNING TO REACH NORTHERN
AREAS. VERY LITTLE IS FALLING OVER WESTERN AREAS. AMOUNTS WERE CUT
BACK A BIT IN THIS REGION. OTHERWISE, THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER EAST CENTRAL AREAS AS THE LOW CENTER
TRACKS TOWARD WESTERN NOVA SCOTIA.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE
TONIGHT THEN SLOWLY LIFT ACROSS THE MARITIMES THURSDAY. AT THE
SAME TIME...UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THE INTENSIFYING LOW WILL DRAW
COLDER AIR ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. PRECIPITATION WILL BE
MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...THOUGH A WINTRY MIX COULD OCCUR THIS EVENING. ACROSS
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA A WINTRY MIX WILL TRANSITION
TO SNOW EARLY TONIGHT THEN PERSIST INTO THURSDAY. PRECIPITATION
DOWNEAST WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN THIS
EVENING...BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO A WINTRY MIX AND EVENTUALLY
SNOW WHICH WILL THEN PERSIST INTO THURSDAY. WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON. GENERALLY EXPECT
STORM TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 6 TO 10 INCHES ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH 4 TO 8 INCHES
ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...3 TO 5 INCHES
INTERIOR DOWNEAST WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST.
HOWEVER...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS COULD BE
AFFECTED BY HOW QUICKLY THE TRANSITION TO SNOW OCCURS TONIGHT. ANY
ICE ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE
AROUND A TRACE. SNOW WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE THROUGH THE LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS THURSDAY. GUSTY WINDS WILL OCCUR
THURSDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 20S NORTH...TO AROUND 30 TO THE LOWER 30S DOWNEAST. HIGH
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 30 TO THE LOWER 30S
NORTH...TO THE MID TO UPPER 30S DOWNEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ANY ONGOING SNOW ACROSS THE FCST AREA WILL TAPERING OFF TO SCTD SNOW
SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT...AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEPARTS TO THE
EAST. BY FRIDAY...CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINLY DRY AND COLD AS A POLAR
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BEGINS TO BUILDS OVER THE NORTHEAST. THIS HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
AS IT DRIFTS OVER THE NORTHEAST AND ERN CANADA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOOKING AT A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW MAINLY FOR SOUTHERN AREAS
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. APPEARS TO BE A BETTER CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION SOUTH OF OUR AREA, BUT MODELS DISAGREE AS TO HOW
MUCH MAKES IT THIS FAR NORTH WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST TRYING
TO KEEP US DRY. BETTER CHANCE AT A POTENT SYSTEM AROUND WEDNESDAY
OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT (CHRISTMAS EVE). IT APPEARS THIS COULD BE A
WARM SYSTEM WITH A MIX TRANSITIONING TO RAIN FOR MANY AREAS. THIS
IS STILL WAY OUT THERE, HOWEVER, SO OF COURSE THINGS CAN CHANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING WITH
WIDESPREAD SNOW NORTH, AND RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW DOWNEAST. SNOW
WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THURSDAY, WITH PERHAPS KBHB AND
KBGR BECOMING VFR IN THE AFTERNOON. FOR FAR EASTERN MAINE,
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR IN THE AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL INCREASE THURSDAY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM TO 10
TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KNOTS FOR MOST AREAS.

SHORT TERM: CONDITIONS WILL BE IMPROVING ACROSS THE FCST AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER THERE WILL STILL BE SCTD SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
THE CWA...ESPECIALLY NORTH...RESULTING IN AREAS OF IFR/MVFR VSBYS
AND CIGS. SKIES WILL BEGIN TO SCTR OUT ON FRIDAY...THEN BECOME
MOSTLY CLEAR WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN RAIN
AND FOG TONIGHT...WITH RAIN AND SNOW THURSDAY.

SHORT TERM: SHORT TERM: ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM...WINDS AND WAVES WILL BE FAIRLY HIGH ACROSS OUR MARINE
FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. AS A RESULT...WE WILL KEEP THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THRU THURSDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THURSDAY FOR MEZ001>005-
     010-011-017-031.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THURSDAY FOR MEZ006-032.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...NORCROSS/MCB
SHORT TERM...BERDES
LONG TERM...BERDES
AVIATION...NORCROSS/BERDES
MARINE...NORCROSS/BERDES



000
FXUS61 KCAR 180214
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
914 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE
TONIGHT...THEN BEGIN TO EXIT ACROSS THE MARITIMES THURSDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION LATER FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
9 PM UPDATE...RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW HEAVIEST SNOW OVER EAST
CENTRAL AREAS WITH SOME MODERATE SNOW BEGINNING TO REACH NORTHERN
AREAS. VERY LITTLE IS FALLING OVER WESTERN AREAS. AMOUNTS WERE CUT
BACK A BIT IN THIS REGION. OTHERWISE, THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER EAST CENTRAL AREAS AS THE LOW CENTER
TRACKS TOWARD WESTERN NOVA SCOTIA.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE
TONIGHT THEN SLOWLY LIFT ACROSS THE MARITIMES THURSDAY. AT THE
SAME TIME...UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THE INTENSIFYING LOW WILL DRAW
COLDER AIR ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. PRECIPITATION WILL BE
MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...THOUGH A WINTRY MIX COULD OCCUR THIS EVENING. ACROSS
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA A WINTRY MIX WILL TRANSITION
TO SNOW EARLY TONIGHT THEN PERSIST INTO THURSDAY. PRECIPITATION
DOWNEAST WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN THIS
EVENING...BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO A WINTRY MIX AND EVENTUALLY
SNOW WHICH WILL THEN PERSIST INTO THURSDAY. WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON. GENERALLY EXPECT
STORM TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 6 TO 10 INCHES ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH 4 TO 8 INCHES
ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...3 TO 5 INCHES
INTERIOR DOWNEAST WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST.
HOWEVER...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS COULD BE
AFFECTED BY HOW QUICKLY THE TRANSITION TO SNOW OCCURS TONIGHT. ANY
ICE ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE
AROUND A TRACE. SNOW WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE THROUGH THE LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS THURSDAY. GUSTY WINDS WILL OCCUR
THURSDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 20S NORTH...TO AROUND 30 TO THE LOWER 30S DOWNEAST. HIGH
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 30 TO THE LOWER 30S
NORTH...TO THE MID TO UPPER 30S DOWNEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ANY ONGOING SNOW ACROSS THE FCST AREA WILL TAPERING OFF TO SCTD SNOW
SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT...AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEPARTS TO THE
EAST. BY FRIDAY...CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINLY DRY AND COLD AS A POLAR
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BEGINS TO BUILDS OVER THE NORTHEAST. THIS HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
AS IT DRIFTS OVER THE NORTHEAST AND ERN CANADA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOOKING AT A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW MAINLY FOR SOUTHERN AREAS
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. APPEARS TO BE A BETTER CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION SOUTH OF OUR AREA, BUT MODELS DISAGREE AS TO HOW
MUCH MAKES IT THIS FAR NORTH WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST TRYING
TO KEEP US DRY. BETTER CHANCE AT A POTENT SYSTEM AROUND WEDNESDAY
OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT (CHRISTMAS EVE). IT APPEARS THIS COULD BE A
WARM SYSTEM WITH A MIX TRANSITIONING TO RAIN FOR MANY AREAS. THIS
IS STILL WAY OUT THERE, HOWEVER, SO OF COURSE THINGS CAN CHANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING WITH
WIDESPREAD SNOW NORTH, AND RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW DOWNEAST. SNOW
WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THURSDAY, WITH PERHAPS KBHB AND
KBGR BECOMING VFR IN THE AFTERNOON. FOR FAR EASTERN MAINE,
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR IN THE AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL INCREASE THURSDAY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM TO 10
TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KNOTS FOR MOST AREAS.

SHORT TERM: CONDITIONS WILL BE IMPROVING ACROSS THE FCST AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER THERE WILL STILL BE SCTD SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
THE CWA...ESPECIALLY NORTH...RESULTING IN AREAS OF IFR/MVFR VSBYS
AND CIGS. SKIES WILL BEGIN TO SCTR OUT ON FRIDAY...THEN BECOME
MOSTLY CLEAR WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN RAIN
AND FOG TONIGHT...WITH RAIN AND SNOW THURSDAY.

SHORT TERM: SHORT TERM: ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM...WINDS AND WAVES WILL BE FAIRLY HIGH ACROSS OUR MARINE
FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. AS A RESULT...WE WILL KEEP THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THRU THURSDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THURSDAY FOR MEZ001>005-
     010-011-017-031.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THURSDAY FOR MEZ006-032.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...NORCROSS/MCB
SHORT TERM...BERDES
LONG TERM...BERDES
AVIATION...NORCROSS/BERDES
MARINE...NORCROSS/BERDES




000
FXUS61 KCAR 180036
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
736 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE
TONIGHT...THEN BEGIN TO EXIT ACROSS THE MARITIMES THURSDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION LATER FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
7:30 PM UPDATE...LATEST GUIDANCE IS SHOWING A STORM TRACK JUST A
BIT FURTHER SOUTH WITH AN AXES OF HEAVIEST SNOW OVER SOUTHEAST
AROOSTOOK AND FAR NORTHERN WASHINGTON COUNTIES INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. WINTER STORM WARNINGS WERE ISSUED FOR THIS AREA. SNOW
AMOUNTS WERE CUT BACK A BIT ACROSS THE ST JOHN VALLEY.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE
TONIGHT THEN SLOWLY LIFT ACROSS THE MARITIMES THURSDAY. AT THE
SAME TIME...UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THE INTENSIFYING LOW WILL DRAW
COLDER AIR ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. PRECIPITATION WILL BE
MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...THOUGH A WINTRY MIX COULD OCCUR THIS EVENING. ACROSS
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA A WINTRY MIX WILL TRANSITION
TO SNOW EARLY TONIGHT THEN PERSIST INTO THURSDAY. PRECIPITATION
DOWNEAST WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN THIS
EVENING...BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO A WINTRY MIX AND EVENTUALLY
SNOW WHICH WILL THEN PERSIST INTO THURSDAY. WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON. GENERALLY EXPECT
STORM TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 6 TO 10 INCHES ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH 4 TO 8 INCHES
ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...3 TO 5 INCHES
INTERIOR DOWNEAST WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST.
HOWEVER...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS COULD BE
AFFECTED BY HOW QUICKLY THE TRANSITION TO SNOW OCCURS TONIGHT. ANY
ICE ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE
AROUND A TRACE. SNOW WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE THROUGH THE LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS THURSDAY. GUSTY WINDS WILL OCCUR
THURSDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 20S NORTH...TO AROUND 30 TO THE LOWER 30S DOWNEAST. HIGH
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 30 TO THE LOWER 30S
NORTH...TO THE MID TO UPPER 30S DOWNEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ANY ONGOING SNOW ACROSS THE FCST AREA WILL TAPERING OFF TO SCTD SNOW
SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT...AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEPARTS TO THE
EAST. BY FRIDAY...CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINLY DRY AND COLD AS A POLAR
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BEGINS TO BUILDS OVER THE NORTHEAST. THIS HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
AS IT DRIFTS OVER THE NORTHEAST AND ERN CANADA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOOKING AT A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW MAINLY FOR SOUTHERN AREAS
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. APPEARS TO BE A BETTER CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION SOUTH OF OUR AREA, BUT MODELS DISAGREE AS TO HOW
MUCH MAKES IT THIS FAR NORTH WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST TRYING
TO KEEP US DRY. BETTER CHANCE AT A POTENT SYSTEM AROUND WEDNESDAY
OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT (CHRISTMAS EVE). IT APPEARS THIS COULD BE A
WARM SYSTEM WITH A MIX TRANSITIONING TO RAIN FOR MANY AREAS. THIS
IS STILL WAY OUT THERE, HOWEVER, SO OF COURSE THINGS CAN CHANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING WITH
WIDESPREAD SNOW NORTH, AND RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW DOWNEAST. SNOW
WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THURSDAY, WITH PERHAPS KBHB AND
KBGR BECOMING VFR IN THE AFTERNOON. FOR FAR EASTERN MAINE,
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR IN THE AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL INCREASE THURSDAY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM TO 10
TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KNOTS FOR MOST AREAS.

SHORT TERM: CONDITIONS WILL BE IMPROVING ACROSS THE FCST AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER THERE WILL STILL BE SCTD SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
THE CWA...ESPECIALLY NORTH...RESULTING IN AREAS OF IFR/MVFR VSBYS
AND CIGS. SKIES WILL BEGIN TO SCTR OUT ON FRIDAY...THEN BECOME
MOSTLY CLEAR WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN RAIN
AND FOG TONIGHT...WITH RAIN AND SNOW THURSDAY.

SHORT TERM: SHORT TERM: ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM...WINDS AND WAVES WILL BE FAIRLY HIGH ACROSS OUR MARINE
FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. AS A RESULT...WE WILL KEEP THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THRU THURSDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THURSDAY FOR MEZ001>005-
     010-011-017-031.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THURSDAY FOR MEZ006-032.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...NORCROSS
SHORT TERM...BERDES
LONG TERM...BERDES
AVIATION...NORCROSS/BERDES
MARINE...NORCROSS/BERDES




000
FXUS61 KCAR 180036
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
736 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE
TONIGHT...THEN BEGIN TO EXIT ACROSS THE MARITIMES THURSDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION LATER FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
7:30 PM UPDATE...LATEST GUIDANCE IS SHOWING A STORM TRACK JUST A
BIT FURTHER SOUTH WITH AN AXES OF HEAVIEST SNOW OVER SOUTHEAST
AROOSTOOK AND FAR NORTHERN WASHINGTON COUNTIES INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. WINTER STORM WARNINGS WERE ISSUED FOR THIS AREA. SNOW
AMOUNTS WERE CUT BACK A BIT ACROSS THE ST JOHN VALLEY.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE
TONIGHT THEN SLOWLY LIFT ACROSS THE MARITIMES THURSDAY. AT THE
SAME TIME...UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THE INTENSIFYING LOW WILL DRAW
COLDER AIR ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. PRECIPITATION WILL BE
MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...THOUGH A WINTRY MIX COULD OCCUR THIS EVENING. ACROSS
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA A WINTRY MIX WILL TRANSITION
TO SNOW EARLY TONIGHT THEN PERSIST INTO THURSDAY. PRECIPITATION
DOWNEAST WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN THIS
EVENING...BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO A WINTRY MIX AND EVENTUALLY
SNOW WHICH WILL THEN PERSIST INTO THURSDAY. WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON. GENERALLY EXPECT
STORM TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 6 TO 10 INCHES ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH 4 TO 8 INCHES
ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...3 TO 5 INCHES
INTERIOR DOWNEAST WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST.
HOWEVER...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS COULD BE
AFFECTED BY HOW QUICKLY THE TRANSITION TO SNOW OCCURS TONIGHT. ANY
ICE ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE
AROUND A TRACE. SNOW WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE THROUGH THE LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS THURSDAY. GUSTY WINDS WILL OCCUR
THURSDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 20S NORTH...TO AROUND 30 TO THE LOWER 30S DOWNEAST. HIGH
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 30 TO THE LOWER 30S
NORTH...TO THE MID TO UPPER 30S DOWNEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ANY ONGOING SNOW ACROSS THE FCST AREA WILL TAPERING OFF TO SCTD SNOW
SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT...AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEPARTS TO THE
EAST. BY FRIDAY...CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINLY DRY AND COLD AS A POLAR
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BEGINS TO BUILDS OVER THE NORTHEAST. THIS HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
AS IT DRIFTS OVER THE NORTHEAST AND ERN CANADA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOOKING AT A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW MAINLY FOR SOUTHERN AREAS
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. APPEARS TO BE A BETTER CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION SOUTH OF OUR AREA, BUT MODELS DISAGREE AS TO HOW
MUCH MAKES IT THIS FAR NORTH WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST TRYING
TO KEEP US DRY. BETTER CHANCE AT A POTENT SYSTEM AROUND WEDNESDAY
OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT (CHRISTMAS EVE). IT APPEARS THIS COULD BE A
WARM SYSTEM WITH A MIX TRANSITIONING TO RAIN FOR MANY AREAS. THIS
IS STILL WAY OUT THERE, HOWEVER, SO OF COURSE THINGS CAN CHANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING WITH
WIDESPREAD SNOW NORTH, AND RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW DOWNEAST. SNOW
WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THURSDAY, WITH PERHAPS KBHB AND
KBGR BECOMING VFR IN THE AFTERNOON. FOR FAR EASTERN MAINE,
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR IN THE AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL INCREASE THURSDAY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM TO 10
TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KNOTS FOR MOST AREAS.

SHORT TERM: CONDITIONS WILL BE IMPROVING ACROSS THE FCST AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER THERE WILL STILL BE SCTD SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
THE CWA...ESPECIALLY NORTH...RESULTING IN AREAS OF IFR/MVFR VSBYS
AND CIGS. SKIES WILL BEGIN TO SCTR OUT ON FRIDAY...THEN BECOME
MOSTLY CLEAR WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN RAIN
AND FOG TONIGHT...WITH RAIN AND SNOW THURSDAY.

SHORT TERM: SHORT TERM: ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM...WINDS AND WAVES WILL BE FAIRLY HIGH ACROSS OUR MARINE
FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. AS A RESULT...WE WILL KEEP THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THRU THURSDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THURSDAY FOR MEZ001>005-
     010-011-017-031.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THURSDAY FOR MEZ006-032.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...NORCROSS
SHORT TERM...BERDES
LONG TERM...BERDES
AVIATION...NORCROSS/BERDES
MARINE...NORCROSS/BERDES




000
FXUS61 KCAR 180036
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
736 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE
TONIGHT...THEN BEGIN TO EXIT ACROSS THE MARITIMES THURSDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION LATER FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
7:30 PM UPDATE...LATEST GUIDANCE IS SHOWING A STORM TRACK JUST A
BIT FURTHER SOUTH WITH AN AXES OF HEAVIEST SNOW OVER SOUTHEAST
AROOSTOOK AND FAR NORTHERN WASHINGTON COUNTIES INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. WINTER STORM WARNINGS WERE ISSUED FOR THIS AREA. SNOW
AMOUNTS WERE CUT BACK A BIT ACROSS THE ST JOHN VALLEY.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE
TONIGHT THEN SLOWLY LIFT ACROSS THE MARITIMES THURSDAY. AT THE
SAME TIME...UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THE INTENSIFYING LOW WILL DRAW
COLDER AIR ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. PRECIPITATION WILL BE
MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...THOUGH A WINTRY MIX COULD OCCUR THIS EVENING. ACROSS
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA A WINTRY MIX WILL TRANSITION
TO SNOW EARLY TONIGHT THEN PERSIST INTO THURSDAY. PRECIPITATION
DOWNEAST WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN THIS
EVENING...BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO A WINTRY MIX AND EVENTUALLY
SNOW WHICH WILL THEN PERSIST INTO THURSDAY. WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON. GENERALLY EXPECT
STORM TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 6 TO 10 INCHES ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH 4 TO 8 INCHES
ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...3 TO 5 INCHES
INTERIOR DOWNEAST WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST.
HOWEVER...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS COULD BE
AFFECTED BY HOW QUICKLY THE TRANSITION TO SNOW OCCURS TONIGHT. ANY
ICE ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE
AROUND A TRACE. SNOW WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE THROUGH THE LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS THURSDAY. GUSTY WINDS WILL OCCUR
THURSDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 20S NORTH...TO AROUND 30 TO THE LOWER 30S DOWNEAST. HIGH
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 30 TO THE LOWER 30S
NORTH...TO THE MID TO UPPER 30S DOWNEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ANY ONGOING SNOW ACROSS THE FCST AREA WILL TAPERING OFF TO SCTD SNOW
SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT...AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEPARTS TO THE
EAST. BY FRIDAY...CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINLY DRY AND COLD AS A POLAR
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BEGINS TO BUILDS OVER THE NORTHEAST. THIS HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
AS IT DRIFTS OVER THE NORTHEAST AND ERN CANADA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOOKING AT A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW MAINLY FOR SOUTHERN AREAS
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. APPEARS TO BE A BETTER CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION SOUTH OF OUR AREA, BUT MODELS DISAGREE AS TO HOW
MUCH MAKES IT THIS FAR NORTH WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST TRYING
TO KEEP US DRY. BETTER CHANCE AT A POTENT SYSTEM AROUND WEDNESDAY
OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT (CHRISTMAS EVE). IT APPEARS THIS COULD BE A
WARM SYSTEM WITH A MIX TRANSITIONING TO RAIN FOR MANY AREAS. THIS
IS STILL WAY OUT THERE, HOWEVER, SO OF COURSE THINGS CAN CHANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING WITH
WIDESPREAD SNOW NORTH, AND RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW DOWNEAST. SNOW
WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THURSDAY, WITH PERHAPS KBHB AND
KBGR BECOMING VFR IN THE AFTERNOON. FOR FAR EASTERN MAINE,
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR IN THE AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL INCREASE THURSDAY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM TO 10
TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KNOTS FOR MOST AREAS.

SHORT TERM: CONDITIONS WILL BE IMPROVING ACROSS THE FCST AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER THERE WILL STILL BE SCTD SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
THE CWA...ESPECIALLY NORTH...RESULTING IN AREAS OF IFR/MVFR VSBYS
AND CIGS. SKIES WILL BEGIN TO SCTR OUT ON FRIDAY...THEN BECOME
MOSTLY CLEAR WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN RAIN
AND FOG TONIGHT...WITH RAIN AND SNOW THURSDAY.

SHORT TERM: SHORT TERM: ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM...WINDS AND WAVES WILL BE FAIRLY HIGH ACROSS OUR MARINE
FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. AS A RESULT...WE WILL KEEP THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THRU THURSDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THURSDAY FOR MEZ001>005-
     010-011-017-031.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THURSDAY FOR MEZ006-032.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...NORCROSS
SHORT TERM...BERDES
LONG TERM...BERDES
AVIATION...NORCROSS/BERDES
MARINE...NORCROSS/BERDES




000
FXUS61 KCAR 180036
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
736 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE
TONIGHT...THEN BEGIN TO EXIT ACROSS THE MARITIMES THURSDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION LATER FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
7:30 PM UPDATE...LATEST GUIDANCE IS SHOWING A STORM TRACK JUST A
BIT FURTHER SOUTH WITH AN AXES OF HEAVIEST SNOW OVER SOUTHEAST
AROOSTOOK AND FAR NORTHERN WASHINGTON COUNTIES INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. WINTER STORM WARNINGS WERE ISSUED FOR THIS AREA. SNOW
AMOUNTS WERE CUT BACK A BIT ACROSS THE ST JOHN VALLEY.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE
TONIGHT THEN SLOWLY LIFT ACROSS THE MARITIMES THURSDAY. AT THE
SAME TIME...UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THE INTENSIFYING LOW WILL DRAW
COLDER AIR ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. PRECIPITATION WILL BE
MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...THOUGH A WINTRY MIX COULD OCCUR THIS EVENING. ACROSS
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA A WINTRY MIX WILL TRANSITION
TO SNOW EARLY TONIGHT THEN PERSIST INTO THURSDAY. PRECIPITATION
DOWNEAST WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN THIS
EVENING...BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO A WINTRY MIX AND EVENTUALLY
SNOW WHICH WILL THEN PERSIST INTO THURSDAY. WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON. GENERALLY EXPECT
STORM TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 6 TO 10 INCHES ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH 4 TO 8 INCHES
ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...3 TO 5 INCHES
INTERIOR DOWNEAST WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST.
HOWEVER...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS COULD BE
AFFECTED BY HOW QUICKLY THE TRANSITION TO SNOW OCCURS TONIGHT. ANY
ICE ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE
AROUND A TRACE. SNOW WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE THROUGH THE LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS THURSDAY. GUSTY WINDS WILL OCCUR
THURSDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 20S NORTH...TO AROUND 30 TO THE LOWER 30S DOWNEAST. HIGH
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 30 TO THE LOWER 30S
NORTH...TO THE MID TO UPPER 30S DOWNEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ANY ONGOING SNOW ACROSS THE FCST AREA WILL TAPERING OFF TO SCTD SNOW
SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT...AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEPARTS TO THE
EAST. BY FRIDAY...CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINLY DRY AND COLD AS A POLAR
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BEGINS TO BUILDS OVER THE NORTHEAST. THIS HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
AS IT DRIFTS OVER THE NORTHEAST AND ERN CANADA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOOKING AT A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW MAINLY FOR SOUTHERN AREAS
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. APPEARS TO BE A BETTER CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION SOUTH OF OUR AREA, BUT MODELS DISAGREE AS TO HOW
MUCH MAKES IT THIS FAR NORTH WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST TRYING
TO KEEP US DRY. BETTER CHANCE AT A POTENT SYSTEM AROUND WEDNESDAY
OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT (CHRISTMAS EVE). IT APPEARS THIS COULD BE A
WARM SYSTEM WITH A MIX TRANSITIONING TO RAIN FOR MANY AREAS. THIS
IS STILL WAY OUT THERE, HOWEVER, SO OF COURSE THINGS CAN CHANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING WITH
WIDESPREAD SNOW NORTH, AND RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW DOWNEAST. SNOW
WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THURSDAY, WITH PERHAPS KBHB AND
KBGR BECOMING VFR IN THE AFTERNOON. FOR FAR EASTERN MAINE,
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR IN THE AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL INCREASE THURSDAY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM TO 10
TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KNOTS FOR MOST AREAS.

SHORT TERM: CONDITIONS WILL BE IMPROVING ACROSS THE FCST AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER THERE WILL STILL BE SCTD SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
THE CWA...ESPECIALLY NORTH...RESULTING IN AREAS OF IFR/MVFR VSBYS
AND CIGS. SKIES WILL BEGIN TO SCTR OUT ON FRIDAY...THEN BECOME
MOSTLY CLEAR WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN RAIN
AND FOG TONIGHT...WITH RAIN AND SNOW THURSDAY.

SHORT TERM: SHORT TERM: ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM...WINDS AND WAVES WILL BE FAIRLY HIGH ACROSS OUR MARINE
FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. AS A RESULT...WE WILL KEEP THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THRU THURSDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THURSDAY FOR MEZ001>005-
     010-011-017-031.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THURSDAY FOR MEZ006-032.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...NORCROSS
SHORT TERM...BERDES
LONG TERM...BERDES
AVIATION...NORCROSS/BERDES
MARINE...NORCROSS/BERDES




000
FXUS61 KGYX 180035
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
735 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY EXIT THE GULF OF MAINE
THIS EVENING. BY THURSDAY MORNING...THE LOW WILL BE OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND IT.
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A WEAK COASTAL SYSTEM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
THAT MAY SPREAD SOME LIGHT SNOW INTO THE REGION. ANOTHER SYSTEM
WILL LIKELY STRENGTHEN AND PASS BY TO OUR WEST DURING THE MID
WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...

730 PM...PRECIPITATION WAS GRADUALLY CHANGING TO SNOW AND SLEET
ACROSS THE AREA. I MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO 1ST PERIOD GRIDS TO
REFLECT THE CURRENT MESONET FOR THIS ESTF UPDATE.

PREV DISC...
ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRES IN THE GULF OF ME ATTM...WITH SFC TROF
EXTENDING BACK INTO SRN QUEBEC AND ONTARIO. OVERNIGHT UPPER LOW
PRES WILL DRIFT UNDERNEATH THE MAJORITY OF THE CWFA. THIS SHOULD
HOLD TROF BACK ACROSS NRN ZONES...AND KEEP FOCUS OF MOISTURE
STREAM INTO THE WRN ME MTNS AND PARTS OF THE WHITES. HI-RES MODEL
FORECASTS INDICATE THAT MID LEVEL WARMTH WAS LIKELY MAXIMIZED A
COUPLE HOURS AGO...AND WE SHOULD SEE A STEADY COOLING TREND ALOFT.
THIS IS CONFIRMED BY PLYMOUTH STATE VERTICALLY POINTED RADAR
SHOWING SNOW LEVELS DECREASING OVER THE LAST HOUR. SPOTTER REPORTS
INDICATE MANY NRN MTNS AND VALLEYS ALIKE CHANGED OVER TO SN FOR
GOOD IN THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS AS WELL. ELY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL
ALSO CONTINUE TO DYNAMICALLY COOL THE COLUMN AND KEEP THE MTNS
SN THRU THE NIGHT. FORECAST MODEL ALSO DEEPEN THE H7 LOW THRU
MIDNIGHT...CLOSING OFF CONTOURS AS IT CROSSES THE STATE OF ME.
THIS SHOULD PROVIDE ENHANCED LIFT TO THE NW OF THE MID LEVEL LOW
TRACK...AGAIN KEEPING SNWFL FOCUSED OVER NRN ZONES. A BLEND OF THE
RFC QPF AND HI-RES MODEL GUIDANCE WAS USED TO PROVIDE A
REASONABLE REPRESENTATION OF HIGHER TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT. SNWFL
WILL WAX AND WANE A BIT THIS EVENING AS THE DRY SLOT LIFTS THRU
THE AREA...BUT I EXPECT FORCING TO REFOCUS LATER TONIGHT INTO THU.
HAVE EXPANDED THE WINTER WX ADVISORIES INTO COOS COUNTY NH...AND
ALL OF OXFORD...FRANKLIN...AND CENTRAL/SRN SOMERSET IN ME. THIS
WILL BE A RELATIVELY LONG DURATION LIGHT SNWFL EVENT...WHICH
COMPLICATES THINGS A BIT. I COULD EASILY SEE 6+ INCHES OF SNWFL
FOR NRN ZONES...BUT IT MAY FALL IN 18 OR 24 HOURS...SHY OF THE 9
INCH CRITERIA BEYOND 12 HOURS. A HEAVIER BAND OF SNWFL THIS
EVENING ACROSS NRN FRANKLIN OR CENTRAL SOMERSET COULD WARRANT AN
UPGRADE TO A WARNING IN THOSE AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
UPPER LOW PULLS INTO THE MARITIMES THU...BUT COOL...MOIST...NWLY
FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE REGION. THE FORCED ASCENT OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN WILL KEEP SHSN GOING IN THE FAVORED NW UPSLOPE REGIONS.
THIS IS LIKELY WHEN THE BULK OF THE ACCUMULATIONS WILL COME FOR
NRN NH AND THE WHITE MTNS. NW WINDS WILL ALSO BE GUSTY ALONG THE
COAST AND INTERIOR.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE EXITS INTO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING SOUTH AND INTO NEW ENGLAND FROM CANADA.

MODELS THEN BRING A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE UP THE COAST MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. THERE IS NOT MUCH CONSENSUS WITH THE 12Z PACKAGE WITH
THIS FEATURE. CURRENTLY THE EURO IS THE FURTHEST WEST WITH THE
POSITION OF THE SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL FEATURES.

ALL EYES THEN SHIFT TO THE 24TH...AS LOW PRESSURE RAPIDLY
INTENSIFIES AND MOVES NORTH. QUESTION IS WHETHER THE SYSTEM
FOLLOWS THE COASTLINE OR CROSSES OVER THE GREAT LAKES. FOR
NOW...CONFIDENCE LEVEL IS LOW. IF THE GREAT LAKES TRACK
VERIFIES...EXPECT LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND HIGH WINDS OVER THE
REGION. SOUTHEASTERLY GRADIENT WILL LIKELY REACH STORM FORCE FOR A
SHORT PERIOD OVER THE WATERS WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS OVER LAND.
STRONG WINDS WOULD LIKELY REACH THE COASTLINE LATE WEDNESDAY ALONG
THE COAST AND HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...AREAS OF IFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NEWD UP
THE COAST THIS EVENING...WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR LINGERING IN ITS
WAKE. GRADUALLY SHRA WILL MIX WITH AND TRANSITION TO SHSN BY
THU. THIS WILL LEAD TO SCT IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES NEAR THE COAST.
IN THE MTNS...IFR CONDITIONS WILL LINGER THRU THU. GUSTY NW WINDS
ARE POSSIBLE THU AS WELL...WITH GUSTS AOA 20 KTS.

LONG TERM...A FEW AREAS OF MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING IN PATCHY
LIGHT SNOW MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. IFR CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING WITH A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING BY TO OUR
WEST WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...HAVE EXTENDED THE SCA IN TIME AND IN AREA TO THE
BAYS...AS WINDS LOOK TO INCREASE IN NW FLOW THU. WINDS WILL RELAX
BRIEFLY TONIGHT...BUT STEADILY INCREASE BY MORNING AS CAA
COMMENCES.

LONG TERM...SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUESDAY...WITH STORM FORCE
WINDS POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY AS A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
BRINGS HIGH SOUTHEAST WINDS TO THE REGION.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR MEZ007>009-
     012>014.
NH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR NHZ001-002.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$
ES




000
FXUS61 KGYX 180035
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
735 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY EXIT THE GULF OF MAINE
THIS EVENING. BY THURSDAY MORNING...THE LOW WILL BE OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND IT.
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A WEAK COASTAL SYSTEM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
THAT MAY SPREAD SOME LIGHT SNOW INTO THE REGION. ANOTHER SYSTEM
WILL LIKELY STRENGTHEN AND PASS BY TO OUR WEST DURING THE MID
WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...

730 PM...PRECIPITATION WAS GRADUALLY CHANGING TO SNOW AND SLEET
ACROSS THE AREA. I MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO 1ST PERIOD GRIDS TO
REFLECT THE CURRENT MESONET FOR THIS ESTF UPDATE.

PREV DISC...
ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRES IN THE GULF OF ME ATTM...WITH SFC TROF
EXTENDING BACK INTO SRN QUEBEC AND ONTARIO. OVERNIGHT UPPER LOW
PRES WILL DRIFT UNDERNEATH THE MAJORITY OF THE CWFA. THIS SHOULD
HOLD TROF BACK ACROSS NRN ZONES...AND KEEP FOCUS OF MOISTURE
STREAM INTO THE WRN ME MTNS AND PARTS OF THE WHITES. HI-RES MODEL
FORECASTS INDICATE THAT MID LEVEL WARMTH WAS LIKELY MAXIMIZED A
COUPLE HOURS AGO...AND WE SHOULD SEE A STEADY COOLING TREND ALOFT.
THIS IS CONFIRMED BY PLYMOUTH STATE VERTICALLY POINTED RADAR
SHOWING SNOW LEVELS DECREASING OVER THE LAST HOUR. SPOTTER REPORTS
INDICATE MANY NRN MTNS AND VALLEYS ALIKE CHANGED OVER TO SN FOR
GOOD IN THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS AS WELL. ELY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL
ALSO CONTINUE TO DYNAMICALLY COOL THE COLUMN AND KEEP THE MTNS
SN THRU THE NIGHT. FORECAST MODEL ALSO DEEPEN THE H7 LOW THRU
MIDNIGHT...CLOSING OFF CONTOURS AS IT CROSSES THE STATE OF ME.
THIS SHOULD PROVIDE ENHANCED LIFT TO THE NW OF THE MID LEVEL LOW
TRACK...AGAIN KEEPING SNWFL FOCUSED OVER NRN ZONES. A BLEND OF THE
RFC QPF AND HI-RES MODEL GUIDANCE WAS USED TO PROVIDE A
REASONABLE REPRESENTATION OF HIGHER TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT. SNWFL
WILL WAX AND WANE A BIT THIS EVENING AS THE DRY SLOT LIFTS THRU
THE AREA...BUT I EXPECT FORCING TO REFOCUS LATER TONIGHT INTO THU.
HAVE EXPANDED THE WINTER WX ADVISORIES INTO COOS COUNTY NH...AND
ALL OF OXFORD...FRANKLIN...AND CENTRAL/SRN SOMERSET IN ME. THIS
WILL BE A RELATIVELY LONG DURATION LIGHT SNWFL EVENT...WHICH
COMPLICATES THINGS A BIT. I COULD EASILY SEE 6+ INCHES OF SNWFL
FOR NRN ZONES...BUT IT MAY FALL IN 18 OR 24 HOURS...SHY OF THE 9
INCH CRITERIA BEYOND 12 HOURS. A HEAVIER BAND OF SNWFL THIS
EVENING ACROSS NRN FRANKLIN OR CENTRAL SOMERSET COULD WARRANT AN
UPGRADE TO A WARNING IN THOSE AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
UPPER LOW PULLS INTO THE MARITIMES THU...BUT COOL...MOIST...NWLY
FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE REGION. THE FORCED ASCENT OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN WILL KEEP SHSN GOING IN THE FAVORED NW UPSLOPE REGIONS.
THIS IS LIKELY WHEN THE BULK OF THE ACCUMULATIONS WILL COME FOR
NRN NH AND THE WHITE MTNS. NW WINDS WILL ALSO BE GUSTY ALONG THE
COAST AND INTERIOR.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE EXITS INTO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING SOUTH AND INTO NEW ENGLAND FROM CANADA.

MODELS THEN BRING A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE UP THE COAST MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. THERE IS NOT MUCH CONSENSUS WITH THE 12Z PACKAGE WITH
THIS FEATURE. CURRENTLY THE EURO IS THE FURTHEST WEST WITH THE
POSITION OF THE SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL FEATURES.

ALL EYES THEN SHIFT TO THE 24TH...AS LOW PRESSURE RAPIDLY
INTENSIFIES AND MOVES NORTH. QUESTION IS WHETHER THE SYSTEM
FOLLOWS THE COASTLINE OR CROSSES OVER THE GREAT LAKES. FOR
NOW...CONFIDENCE LEVEL IS LOW. IF THE GREAT LAKES TRACK
VERIFIES...EXPECT LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND HIGH WINDS OVER THE
REGION. SOUTHEASTERLY GRADIENT WILL LIKELY REACH STORM FORCE FOR A
SHORT PERIOD OVER THE WATERS WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS OVER LAND.
STRONG WINDS WOULD LIKELY REACH THE COASTLINE LATE WEDNESDAY ALONG
THE COAST AND HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...AREAS OF IFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NEWD UP
THE COAST THIS EVENING...WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR LINGERING IN ITS
WAKE. GRADUALLY SHRA WILL MIX WITH AND TRANSITION TO SHSN BY
THU. THIS WILL LEAD TO SCT IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES NEAR THE COAST.
IN THE MTNS...IFR CONDITIONS WILL LINGER THRU THU. GUSTY NW WINDS
ARE POSSIBLE THU AS WELL...WITH GUSTS AOA 20 KTS.

LONG TERM...A FEW AREAS OF MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING IN PATCHY
LIGHT SNOW MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. IFR CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING WITH A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING BY TO OUR
WEST WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...HAVE EXTENDED THE SCA IN TIME AND IN AREA TO THE
BAYS...AS WINDS LOOK TO INCREASE IN NW FLOW THU. WINDS WILL RELAX
BRIEFLY TONIGHT...BUT STEADILY INCREASE BY MORNING AS CAA
COMMENCES.

LONG TERM...SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUESDAY...WITH STORM FORCE
WINDS POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY AS A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
BRINGS HIGH SOUTHEAST WINDS TO THE REGION.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR MEZ007>009-
     012>014.
NH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR NHZ001-002.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$
ES



000
FXUS61 KCAR 180030
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
730 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE
TONIGHT...THEN BEGIN TO EXIT ACROSS THE MARITIMES THURSDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION LATER FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
7:30 PM UPDATE...LATEST GUIDANCE IS SHOWING A STORM TRACK JUST A
BIT FURTHER SOUTH WITH AN AXES OF HEAVIEST SNOW OVER SOUTHEAST
AROOSTOOK AND FAR NORTHERN WASHINGTON COUNTIES INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. WINTER STORM WARNINGS WERE ISSUED FOR THIS AREA. SNOW
AMOUNTS WERE CUT BACK A BIT ACROSS THE ST JOHN VALLEY.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE
TONIGHT THEN SLOWLY LIFT ACROSS THE MARITIMES THURSDAY. AT THE
SAME TIME...UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THE INTENSIFYING LOW WILL DRAW
COLDER AIR ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. PRECIPITATION WILL BE
MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...THOUGH A WINTRY MIX COULD OCCUR THIS EVENING. ACROSS
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA A WINTRY MIX WILL TRANSITION
TO SNOW EARLY TONIGHT THEN PERSIST INTO THURSDAY. PRECIPITATION
DOWNEAST WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN THIS
EVENING...BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO A WINTRY MIX AND EVENTUALLY
SNOW WHICH WILL THEN PERSIST INTO THURSDAY. WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON. GENERALLY EXPECT
STORM TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 6 TO 10 INCHES ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH 4 TO 8 INCHES
ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...3 TO 5 INCHES
INTERIOR DOWNEAST WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST.
HOWEVER...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS COULD BE
AFFECTED BY HOW QUICKLY THE TRANSITION TO SNOW OCCURS TONIGHT. ANY
ICE ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE
AROUND A TRACE. SNOW WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE THROUGH THE LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS THURSDAY. GUSTY WINDS WILL OCCUR
THURSDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 20S NORTH...TO AROUND 30 TO THE LOWER 30S DOWNEAST. HIGH
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 30 TO THE LOWER 30S
NORTH...TO THE MID TO UPPER 30S DOWNEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ANY ONGOING SNOW ACROSS THE FCST AREA WILL TAPERING OFF TO SCTD SNOW
SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT...AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEPARTS TO THE
EAST. BY FRIDAY...CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINLY DRY AND COLD AS A POLAR
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BEGINS TO BUILDS OVER THE NORTHEAST. THIS HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
AS IT DRIFTS OVER THE NORTHEAST AND ERN CANADA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOOKING AT A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW MAINLY FOR SOUTHERN AREAS
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. APPEARS TO BE A BETTER CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION SOUTH OF OUR AREA, BUT MODELS DISAGREE AS TO HOW
MUCH MAKES IT THIS FAR NORTH WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST TRYING
TO KEEP US DRY. BETTER CHANCE AT A POTENT SYSTEM AROUND WEDNESDAY
OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT (CHRISTMAS EVE). IT APPEARS THIS COULD BE A
WARM SYSTEM WITH A MIX TRANSITIONING TO RAIN FOR MANY AREAS. THIS
IS STILL WAY OUT THERE, HOWEVER, SO OF COURSE THINGS CAN CHANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING WITH
WIDESPREAD SNOW NORTH, AND RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW DOWNEAST. SNOW
WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THURSDAY, WITH PERHAPS KBHB AND
KBGR BECOMING VFR IN THE AFTERNOON. FOR FAR EASTERN MAINE,
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR IN THE AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL INCREASE THURSDAY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM TO 10
TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KNOTS FOR MOST AREAS.

SHORT TERM: CONDITIONS WILL BE IMPROVING ACROSS THE FCST AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER THERE WILL STILL BE SCTD SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
THE CWA...ESPECIALLY NORTH...RESULTING IN AREAS OF IFR/MVFR VSBYS
AND CIGS. SKIES WILL BEGIN TO SCTR OUT ON FRIDAY...THEN BECOME
MOSTLY CLEAR WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN RAIN
AND FOG TONIGHT...WITH RAIN AND SNOW THURSDAY.

SHORT TERM: SHORT TERM: ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM...WINDS AND WAVES WILL BE FAIRLY HIGH ACROSS OUR MARINE
FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. AS A RESULT...WE WILL KEEP THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THRU THURSDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THURSDAY FOR MEZ001>005-
     010-011-031.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THURSDAY FOR MEZ006-032.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...NORCROSS/MCB
SHORT TERM...BERDES
LONG TERM...BERDES
AVIATION...NORCROSS/BERDES
MARINE...NORCROSS/BERDES



000
FXUS61 KCAR 180030
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
730 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE
TONIGHT...THEN BEGIN TO EXIT ACROSS THE MARITIMES THURSDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION LATER FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
7:30 PM UPDATE...LATEST GUIDANCE IS SHOWING A STORM TRACK JUST A
BIT FURTHER SOUTH WITH AN AXES OF HEAVIEST SNOW OVER SOUTHEAST
AROOSTOOK AND FAR NORTHERN WASHINGTON COUNTIES INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. WINTER STORM WARNINGS WERE ISSUED FOR THIS AREA. SNOW
AMOUNTS WERE CUT BACK A BIT ACROSS THE ST JOHN VALLEY.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE
TONIGHT THEN SLOWLY LIFT ACROSS THE MARITIMES THURSDAY. AT THE
SAME TIME...UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THE INTENSIFYING LOW WILL DRAW
COLDER AIR ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. PRECIPITATION WILL BE
MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...THOUGH A WINTRY MIX COULD OCCUR THIS EVENING. ACROSS
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA A WINTRY MIX WILL TRANSITION
TO SNOW EARLY TONIGHT THEN PERSIST INTO THURSDAY. PRECIPITATION
DOWNEAST WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN THIS
EVENING...BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO A WINTRY MIX AND EVENTUALLY
SNOW WHICH WILL THEN PERSIST INTO THURSDAY. WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON. GENERALLY EXPECT
STORM TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 6 TO 10 INCHES ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH 4 TO 8 INCHES
ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...3 TO 5 INCHES
INTERIOR DOWNEAST WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST.
HOWEVER...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS COULD BE
AFFECTED BY HOW QUICKLY THE TRANSITION TO SNOW OCCURS TONIGHT. ANY
ICE ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE
AROUND A TRACE. SNOW WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE THROUGH THE LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS THURSDAY. GUSTY WINDS WILL OCCUR
THURSDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 20S NORTH...TO AROUND 30 TO THE LOWER 30S DOWNEAST. HIGH
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 30 TO THE LOWER 30S
NORTH...TO THE MID TO UPPER 30S DOWNEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ANY ONGOING SNOW ACROSS THE FCST AREA WILL TAPERING OFF TO SCTD SNOW
SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT...AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEPARTS TO THE
EAST. BY FRIDAY...CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINLY DRY AND COLD AS A POLAR
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BEGINS TO BUILDS OVER THE NORTHEAST. THIS HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
AS IT DRIFTS OVER THE NORTHEAST AND ERN CANADA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOOKING AT A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW MAINLY FOR SOUTHERN AREAS
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. APPEARS TO BE A BETTER CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION SOUTH OF OUR AREA, BUT MODELS DISAGREE AS TO HOW
MUCH MAKES IT THIS FAR NORTH WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST TRYING
TO KEEP US DRY. BETTER CHANCE AT A POTENT SYSTEM AROUND WEDNESDAY
OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT (CHRISTMAS EVE). IT APPEARS THIS COULD BE A
WARM SYSTEM WITH A MIX TRANSITIONING TO RAIN FOR MANY AREAS. THIS
IS STILL WAY OUT THERE, HOWEVER, SO OF COURSE THINGS CAN CHANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING WITH
WIDESPREAD SNOW NORTH, AND RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW DOWNEAST. SNOW
WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THURSDAY, WITH PERHAPS KBHB AND
KBGR BECOMING VFR IN THE AFTERNOON. FOR FAR EASTERN MAINE,
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR IN THE AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL INCREASE THURSDAY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM TO 10
TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KNOTS FOR MOST AREAS.

SHORT TERM: CONDITIONS WILL BE IMPROVING ACROSS THE FCST AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER THERE WILL STILL BE SCTD SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
THE CWA...ESPECIALLY NORTH...RESULTING IN AREAS OF IFR/MVFR VSBYS
AND CIGS. SKIES WILL BEGIN TO SCTR OUT ON FRIDAY...THEN BECOME
MOSTLY CLEAR WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN RAIN
AND FOG TONIGHT...WITH RAIN AND SNOW THURSDAY.

SHORT TERM: SHORT TERM: ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM...WINDS AND WAVES WILL BE FAIRLY HIGH ACROSS OUR MARINE
FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. AS A RESULT...WE WILL KEEP THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THRU THURSDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THURSDAY FOR MEZ001>005-
     010-011-031.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THURSDAY FOR MEZ006-032.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...NORCROSS/MCB
SHORT TERM...BERDES
LONG TERM...BERDES
AVIATION...NORCROSS/BERDES
MARINE...NORCROSS/BERDES




000
FXUS61 KCAR 172310
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
610 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE
TONIGHT...THEN BEGIN TO EXIT ACROSS THE MARITIMES THURSDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION LATER FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
6 PM UPDATE...SNOW AMOUNTS WERE RAISED IN SOUTHEASTERN AROOSTOOK,
CENTRAL PENOBSCOT AND NORTHERN WASHINGTON COUNTIES WHERE
PRECIPITATION HAS GONE OVER THE MOSTLY SNOW, AND FORECAST GUIDANCE
IS SHOWING AN AXES OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT. THE REST OF
THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE
TONIGHT THEN SLOWLY LIFT ACROSS THE MARITIMES THURSDAY. AT THE
SAME TIME...UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THE INTENSIFYING LOW WILL DRAW
COLDER AIR ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. PRECIPITATION WILL BE
MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...THOUGH A WINTRY MIX COULD OCCUR THIS EVENING. ACROSS
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA A WINTRY MIX WILL TRANSITION
TO SNOW EARLY TONIGHT THEN PERSIST INTO THURSDAY. PRECIPITATION
DOWNEAST WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN THIS
EVENING...BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO A WINTRY MIX AND EVENTUALLY
SNOW WHICH WILL THEN PERSIST INTO THURSDAY. WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON. GENERALLY EXPECT
STORM TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 6 TO 10 INCHES ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH 4 TO 8 INCHES
ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...3 TO 5 INCHES
INTERIOR DOWNEAST WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST.
HOWEVER...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS COULD BE
AFFECTED BY HOW QUICKLY THE TRANSITION TO SNOW OCCURS TONIGHT. ANY
ICE ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE
AROUND A TRACE. SNOW WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE THROUGH THE LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS THURSDAY. GUSTY WINDS WILL OCCUR
THURSDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 20S NORTH...TO AROUND 30 TO THE LOWER 30S DOWNEAST. HIGH
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 30 TO THE LOWER 30S
NORTH...TO THE MID TO UPPER 30S DOWNEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ANY ONGOING SNOW ACROSS THE FCST AREA WILL TAPERING OFF TO SCTD SNOW
SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT...AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEPARTS TO THE
EAST. BY FRIDAY...CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINLY DRY AND COLD AS A POLAR
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BEGINS TO BUILDS OVER THE NORTHEAST. THIS HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
AS IT DRIFTS OVER THE NORTHEAST AND ERN CANADA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOOKING AT A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW MAINLY FOR SOUTHERN AREAS
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. APPEARS TO BE A BETTER CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION SOUTH OF OUR AREA, BUT MODELS DISAGREE AS TO HOW
MUCH MAKES IT THIS FAR NORTH WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST TRYING
TO KEEP US DRY. BETTER CHANCE AT A POTENT SYSTEM AROUND WEDNESDAY
OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT (CHRISTMAS EVE). IT APPEARS THIS COULD BE A
WARM SYSTEM WITH A MIX TRANSITIONING TO RAIN FOR MANY AREAS. THIS
IS STILL WAY OUT THERE, HOWEVER, SO OF COURSE THINGS CAN CHANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING WITH
WIDESPREAD SNOW NORTH, AND RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW DOWNEAST. SNOW
WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THURSDAY, WITH PERHAPS KBHB AND
KBGR BECOMING VFR IN THE AFTERNOON. FOR FAR EASTERN MAINE,
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR IN THE AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL INCREASE THURSDAY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM TO 10
TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KNOTS FOR MOST AREAS.

SHORT TERM: CONDITIONS WILL BE IMPROVING ACROSS THE FCST AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER THERE WILL STILL BE SCTD SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
THE CWA...ESPECIALLY NORTH...RESULTING IN AREAS OF IFR/MVFR VSBYS
AND CIGS. SKIES WILL BEGIN TO SCTR OUT ON FRIDAY...THEN BECOME
MOSTLY CLEAR WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN RAIN
AND FOG TONIGHT...WITH RAIN AND SNOW THURSDAY.

SHORT TERM: SHORT TERM: ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM...WINDS AND WAVES WILL BE FAIRLY HIGH ACROSS OUR MARINE
FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. AS A RESULT...WE WILL KEEP THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THRU THURSDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THURSDAY FOR MEZ001>006-
     010-011-031-032.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...NORCROSS
SHORT TERM...BERDES
LONG TERM...BERDES
AVIATION...NORCROSS/BERDES
MARINE...NORCROSS/BERDES




000
FXUS61 KCAR 172310
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
610 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE
TONIGHT...THEN BEGIN TO EXIT ACROSS THE MARITIMES THURSDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION LATER FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
6 PM UPDATE...SNOW AMOUNTS WERE RAISED IN SOUTHEASTERN AROOSTOOK,
CENTRAL PENOBSCOT AND NORTHERN WASHINGTON COUNTIES WHERE
PRECIPITATION HAS GONE OVER THE MOSTLY SNOW, AND FORECAST GUIDANCE
IS SHOWING AN AXES OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT. THE REST OF
THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE
TONIGHT THEN SLOWLY LIFT ACROSS THE MARITIMES THURSDAY. AT THE
SAME TIME...UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THE INTENSIFYING LOW WILL DRAW
COLDER AIR ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. PRECIPITATION WILL BE
MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...THOUGH A WINTRY MIX COULD OCCUR THIS EVENING. ACROSS
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA A WINTRY MIX WILL TRANSITION
TO SNOW EARLY TONIGHT THEN PERSIST INTO THURSDAY. PRECIPITATION
DOWNEAST WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN THIS
EVENING...BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO A WINTRY MIX AND EVENTUALLY
SNOW WHICH WILL THEN PERSIST INTO THURSDAY. WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON. GENERALLY EXPECT
STORM TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 6 TO 10 INCHES ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH 4 TO 8 INCHES
ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...3 TO 5 INCHES
INTERIOR DOWNEAST WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST.
HOWEVER...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS COULD BE
AFFECTED BY HOW QUICKLY THE TRANSITION TO SNOW OCCURS TONIGHT. ANY
ICE ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE
AROUND A TRACE. SNOW WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE THROUGH THE LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS THURSDAY. GUSTY WINDS WILL OCCUR
THURSDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 20S NORTH...TO AROUND 30 TO THE LOWER 30S DOWNEAST. HIGH
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 30 TO THE LOWER 30S
NORTH...TO THE MID TO UPPER 30S DOWNEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ANY ONGOING SNOW ACROSS THE FCST AREA WILL TAPERING OFF TO SCTD SNOW
SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT...AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEPARTS TO THE
EAST. BY FRIDAY...CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINLY DRY AND COLD AS A POLAR
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BEGINS TO BUILDS OVER THE NORTHEAST. THIS HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
AS IT DRIFTS OVER THE NORTHEAST AND ERN CANADA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOOKING AT A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW MAINLY FOR SOUTHERN AREAS
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. APPEARS TO BE A BETTER CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION SOUTH OF OUR AREA, BUT MODELS DISAGREE AS TO HOW
MUCH MAKES IT THIS FAR NORTH WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST TRYING
TO KEEP US DRY. BETTER CHANCE AT A POTENT SYSTEM AROUND WEDNESDAY
OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT (CHRISTMAS EVE). IT APPEARS THIS COULD BE A
WARM SYSTEM WITH A MIX TRANSITIONING TO RAIN FOR MANY AREAS. THIS
IS STILL WAY OUT THERE, HOWEVER, SO OF COURSE THINGS CAN CHANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING WITH
WIDESPREAD SNOW NORTH, AND RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW DOWNEAST. SNOW
WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THURSDAY, WITH PERHAPS KBHB AND
KBGR BECOMING VFR IN THE AFTERNOON. FOR FAR EASTERN MAINE,
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR IN THE AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL INCREASE THURSDAY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM TO 10
TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KNOTS FOR MOST AREAS.

SHORT TERM: CONDITIONS WILL BE IMPROVING ACROSS THE FCST AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER THERE WILL STILL BE SCTD SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
THE CWA...ESPECIALLY NORTH...RESULTING IN AREAS OF IFR/MVFR VSBYS
AND CIGS. SKIES WILL BEGIN TO SCTR OUT ON FRIDAY...THEN BECOME
MOSTLY CLEAR WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN RAIN
AND FOG TONIGHT...WITH RAIN AND SNOW THURSDAY.

SHORT TERM: SHORT TERM: ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM...WINDS AND WAVES WILL BE FAIRLY HIGH ACROSS OUR MARINE
FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. AS A RESULT...WE WILL KEEP THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THRU THURSDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THURSDAY FOR MEZ001>006-
     010-011-031-032.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...NORCROSS
SHORT TERM...BERDES
LONG TERM...BERDES
AVIATION...NORCROSS/BERDES
MARINE...NORCROSS/BERDES



000
FXUS61 KCAR 172157
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
457 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE
TONIGHT...THEN BEGIN TO EXIT ACROSS THE MARITIMES THURSDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION LATER FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE
TONIGHT THEN SLOWLY LIFT ACROSS THE MARITIMES THURSDAY. AT THE
SAME TIME...UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THE INTENSIFYING LOW WILL DRAW
COLDER AIR ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. PRECIPITATION WILL BE
MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...THOUGH A WINTRY MIX COULD OCCUR THIS EVENING. ACROSS
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA A WINTRY MIX WILL TRANSITION
TO SNOW EARLY TONIGHT THEN PERSIST INTO THURSDAY. PRECIPITATION
DOWNEAST WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN THIS
EVENING...BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO A WINTRY MIX AND EVENTUALLY
SNOW WHICH WILL THEN PERSIST INTO THURSDAY. WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON. GENERALLY EXPECT
STORM TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 6 TO 10 INCHES ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH 4 TO 8 INCHES
ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...3 TO 5 INCHES
INTERIOR DOWNEAST WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST.
HOWEVER...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS COULD BE
AFFECTED BY HOW QUICKLY THE TRANSITION TO SNOW OCCURS TONIGHT. ANY
ICE ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE
AROUND A TRACE. SNOW WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE THROUGH THE LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS THURSDAY. GUSTY WINDS WILL OCCUR
THURSDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 20S NORTH...TO AROUND 30 TO THE LOWER 30S DOWNEAST. HIGH
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 30 TO THE LOWER 30S
NORTH...TO THE MID TO UPPER 30S DOWNEAST.
&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ANY ONGOING SNOW ACROSS THE FCST AREA WILL TAPERING OFF TO SCTD SNOW
SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT...AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEPARTS TO THE
EAST. BY FRIDAY...CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINLY DRY AND COLD AS A POLAR
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BEGINS TO BUILDS OVER THE NORTHEAST. THIS HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
AS IT DRIFTS OVER THE NORTHEAST AND ERN CANADA.
&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOOKING AT A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW MAINLY FOR SOUTHERN AREAS
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. APPEARS TO BE A BETTER CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION SOUTH OF OUR AREA, BUT MODELS DISAGREE AS TO HOW
MUCH MAKES IT THIS FAR NORTH WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST TRYING
TO KEEP US DRY. BETTER CHANCE AT A POTENT SYSTEM AROUND WEDNESDAY
OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT (CHRISTMAS EVE). IT APPEARS THIS COULD BE A
WARM SYSTEM WITH A MIX TRANSITIONING TO RAIN FOR MANY AREAS. THIS
IS STILL WAY OUT THERE, HOWEVER, SO OF COURSE THINGS CAN CHANGE.
&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING WITH
WIDESPREAD SNOW NORTH, AND RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW DOWNEAST. SNOW
WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THURSDAY, WITH PERHAPS KBHB AND
KBGR BECOMING VFR IN THE AFTERNOON. FOR FAR EASTERN MAINE,
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR IN THE AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL INCREASE THURSDAY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM TO 10
TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KNOTS FOR MOST AREAS.

SHORT TERM: CONDITIONS WILL BE IMPROVING ACROSS THE FCST AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER THERE WILL STILL BE SCTD SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
THE CWA...ESPECIALLY NORTH...RESULTING IN AREAS OF IFR/MVFR VSBYS
AND CIGS. SKIES WILL BEGIN TO SCTR OUT ON FRIDAY...THEN BECOME
MOSTLY CLEAR WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN RAIN
AND FOG TONIGHT...WITH RAIN AND SNOW THURSDAY.

SHORT TERM: SHORT TERM: ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM...WINDS AND WAVES WILL BE FAIRLY HIGH ACROSS OUR MARINE
FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. AS A RESULT...WE WILL KEEP THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THRU THURSDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THURSDAY FOR MEZ001>006-
     010-011-031-032.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...NORCROSS
SHORT TERM...BERDES
LONG TERM...FOISY/BERDES
AVIATION...FOISY/BERDES
MARINE...NORCROSS/BERDES



000
FXUS61 KCAR 172157
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
457 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE
TONIGHT...THEN BEGIN TO EXIT ACROSS THE MARITIMES THURSDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION LATER FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE
TONIGHT THEN SLOWLY LIFT ACROSS THE MARITIMES THURSDAY. AT THE
SAME TIME...UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THE INTENSIFYING LOW WILL DRAW
COLDER AIR ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. PRECIPITATION WILL BE
MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...THOUGH A WINTRY MIX COULD OCCUR THIS EVENING. ACROSS
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA A WINTRY MIX WILL TRANSITION
TO SNOW EARLY TONIGHT THEN PERSIST INTO THURSDAY. PRECIPITATION
DOWNEAST WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN THIS
EVENING...BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO A WINTRY MIX AND EVENTUALLY
SNOW WHICH WILL THEN PERSIST INTO THURSDAY. WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON. GENERALLY EXPECT
STORM TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 6 TO 10 INCHES ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH 4 TO 8 INCHES
ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...3 TO 5 INCHES
INTERIOR DOWNEAST WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST.
HOWEVER...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS COULD BE
AFFECTED BY HOW QUICKLY THE TRANSITION TO SNOW OCCURS TONIGHT. ANY
ICE ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE
AROUND A TRACE. SNOW WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE THROUGH THE LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS THURSDAY. GUSTY WINDS WILL OCCUR
THURSDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 20S NORTH...TO AROUND 30 TO THE LOWER 30S DOWNEAST. HIGH
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 30 TO THE LOWER 30S
NORTH...TO THE MID TO UPPER 30S DOWNEAST.
&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ANY ONGOING SNOW ACROSS THE FCST AREA WILL TAPERING OFF TO SCTD SNOW
SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT...AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEPARTS TO THE
EAST. BY FRIDAY...CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINLY DRY AND COLD AS A POLAR
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BEGINS TO BUILDS OVER THE NORTHEAST. THIS HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
AS IT DRIFTS OVER THE NORTHEAST AND ERN CANADA.
&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOOKING AT A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW MAINLY FOR SOUTHERN AREAS
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. APPEARS TO BE A BETTER CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION SOUTH OF OUR AREA, BUT MODELS DISAGREE AS TO HOW
MUCH MAKES IT THIS FAR NORTH WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST TRYING
TO KEEP US DRY. BETTER CHANCE AT A POTENT SYSTEM AROUND WEDNESDAY
OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT (CHRISTMAS EVE). IT APPEARS THIS COULD BE A
WARM SYSTEM WITH A MIX TRANSITIONING TO RAIN FOR MANY AREAS. THIS
IS STILL WAY OUT THERE, HOWEVER, SO OF COURSE THINGS CAN CHANGE.
&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING WITH
WIDESPREAD SNOW NORTH, AND RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW DOWNEAST. SNOW
WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THURSDAY, WITH PERHAPS KBHB AND
KBGR BECOMING VFR IN THE AFTERNOON. FOR FAR EASTERN MAINE,
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR IN THE AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL INCREASE THURSDAY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM TO 10
TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KNOTS FOR MOST AREAS.

SHORT TERM: CONDITIONS WILL BE IMPROVING ACROSS THE FCST AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER THERE WILL STILL BE SCTD SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
THE CWA...ESPECIALLY NORTH...RESULTING IN AREAS OF IFR/MVFR VSBYS
AND CIGS. SKIES WILL BEGIN TO SCTR OUT ON FRIDAY...THEN BECOME
MOSTLY CLEAR WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN RAIN
AND FOG TONIGHT...WITH RAIN AND SNOW THURSDAY.

SHORT TERM: SHORT TERM: ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM...WINDS AND WAVES WILL BE FAIRLY HIGH ACROSS OUR MARINE
FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. AS A RESULT...WE WILL KEEP THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THRU THURSDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THURSDAY FOR MEZ001>006-
     010-011-031-032.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...NORCROSS
SHORT TERM...BERDES
LONG TERM...FOISY/BERDES
AVIATION...FOISY/BERDES
MARINE...NORCROSS/BERDES



000
FXUS61 KCAR 172157
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
457 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE
TONIGHT...THEN BEGIN TO EXIT ACROSS THE MARITIMES THURSDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION LATER FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE
TONIGHT THEN SLOWLY LIFT ACROSS THE MARITIMES THURSDAY. AT THE
SAME TIME...UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THE INTENSIFYING LOW WILL DRAW
COLDER AIR ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. PRECIPITATION WILL BE
MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...THOUGH A WINTRY MIX COULD OCCUR THIS EVENING. ACROSS
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA A WINTRY MIX WILL TRANSITION
TO SNOW EARLY TONIGHT THEN PERSIST INTO THURSDAY. PRECIPITATION
DOWNEAST WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN THIS
EVENING...BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO A WINTRY MIX AND EVENTUALLY
SNOW WHICH WILL THEN PERSIST INTO THURSDAY. WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON. GENERALLY EXPECT
STORM TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 6 TO 10 INCHES ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH 4 TO 8 INCHES
ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...3 TO 5 INCHES
INTERIOR DOWNEAST WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST.
HOWEVER...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS COULD BE
AFFECTED BY HOW QUICKLY THE TRANSITION TO SNOW OCCURS TONIGHT. ANY
ICE ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE
AROUND A TRACE. SNOW WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE THROUGH THE LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS THURSDAY. GUSTY WINDS WILL OCCUR
THURSDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 20S NORTH...TO AROUND 30 TO THE LOWER 30S DOWNEAST. HIGH
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 30 TO THE LOWER 30S
NORTH...TO THE MID TO UPPER 30S DOWNEAST.
&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ANY ONGOING SNOW ACROSS THE FCST AREA WILL TAPERING OFF TO SCTD SNOW
SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT...AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEPARTS TO THE
EAST. BY FRIDAY...CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINLY DRY AND COLD AS A POLAR
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BEGINS TO BUILDS OVER THE NORTHEAST. THIS HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
AS IT DRIFTS OVER THE NORTHEAST AND ERN CANADA.
&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOOKING AT A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW MAINLY FOR SOUTHERN AREAS
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. APPEARS TO BE A BETTER CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION SOUTH OF OUR AREA, BUT MODELS DISAGREE AS TO HOW
MUCH MAKES IT THIS FAR NORTH WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST TRYING
TO KEEP US DRY. BETTER CHANCE AT A POTENT SYSTEM AROUND WEDNESDAY
OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT (CHRISTMAS EVE). IT APPEARS THIS COULD BE A
WARM SYSTEM WITH A MIX TRANSITIONING TO RAIN FOR MANY AREAS. THIS
IS STILL WAY OUT THERE, HOWEVER, SO OF COURSE THINGS CAN CHANGE.
&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING WITH
WIDESPREAD SNOW NORTH, AND RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW DOWNEAST. SNOW
WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THURSDAY, WITH PERHAPS KBHB AND
KBGR BECOMING VFR IN THE AFTERNOON. FOR FAR EASTERN MAINE,
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR IN THE AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL INCREASE THURSDAY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM TO 10
TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KNOTS FOR MOST AREAS.

SHORT TERM: CONDITIONS WILL BE IMPROVING ACROSS THE FCST AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER THERE WILL STILL BE SCTD SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
THE CWA...ESPECIALLY NORTH...RESULTING IN AREAS OF IFR/MVFR VSBYS
AND CIGS. SKIES WILL BEGIN TO SCTR OUT ON FRIDAY...THEN BECOME
MOSTLY CLEAR WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN RAIN
AND FOG TONIGHT...WITH RAIN AND SNOW THURSDAY.

SHORT TERM: SHORT TERM: ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM...WINDS AND WAVES WILL BE FAIRLY HIGH ACROSS OUR MARINE
FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. AS A RESULT...WE WILL KEEP THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THRU THURSDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THURSDAY FOR MEZ001>006-
     010-011-031-032.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...NORCROSS
SHORT TERM...BERDES
LONG TERM...FOISY/BERDES
AVIATION...FOISY/BERDES
MARINE...NORCROSS/BERDES



000
FXUS61 KCAR 172157
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
457 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE
TONIGHT...THEN BEGIN TO EXIT ACROSS THE MARITIMES THURSDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION LATER FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE
TONIGHT THEN SLOWLY LIFT ACROSS THE MARITIMES THURSDAY. AT THE
SAME TIME...UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THE INTENSIFYING LOW WILL DRAW
COLDER AIR ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. PRECIPITATION WILL BE
MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...THOUGH A WINTRY MIX COULD OCCUR THIS EVENING. ACROSS
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA A WINTRY MIX WILL TRANSITION
TO SNOW EARLY TONIGHT THEN PERSIST INTO THURSDAY. PRECIPITATION
DOWNEAST WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN THIS
EVENING...BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO A WINTRY MIX AND EVENTUALLY
SNOW WHICH WILL THEN PERSIST INTO THURSDAY. WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON. GENERALLY EXPECT
STORM TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 6 TO 10 INCHES ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH 4 TO 8 INCHES
ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...3 TO 5 INCHES
INTERIOR DOWNEAST WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST.
HOWEVER...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS COULD BE
AFFECTED BY HOW QUICKLY THE TRANSITION TO SNOW OCCURS TONIGHT. ANY
ICE ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE
AROUND A TRACE. SNOW WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE THROUGH THE LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS THURSDAY. GUSTY WINDS WILL OCCUR
THURSDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 20S NORTH...TO AROUND 30 TO THE LOWER 30S DOWNEAST. HIGH
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 30 TO THE LOWER 30S
NORTH...TO THE MID TO UPPER 30S DOWNEAST.
&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ANY ONGOING SNOW ACROSS THE FCST AREA WILL TAPERING OFF TO SCTD SNOW
SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT...AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEPARTS TO THE
EAST. BY FRIDAY...CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINLY DRY AND COLD AS A POLAR
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BEGINS TO BUILDS OVER THE NORTHEAST. THIS HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
AS IT DRIFTS OVER THE NORTHEAST AND ERN CANADA.
&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOOKING AT A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW MAINLY FOR SOUTHERN AREAS
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. APPEARS TO BE A BETTER CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION SOUTH OF OUR AREA, BUT MODELS DISAGREE AS TO HOW
MUCH MAKES IT THIS FAR NORTH WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST TRYING
TO KEEP US DRY. BETTER CHANCE AT A POTENT SYSTEM AROUND WEDNESDAY
OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT (CHRISTMAS EVE). IT APPEARS THIS COULD BE A
WARM SYSTEM WITH A MIX TRANSITIONING TO RAIN FOR MANY AREAS. THIS
IS STILL WAY OUT THERE, HOWEVER, SO OF COURSE THINGS CAN CHANGE.
&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING WITH
WIDESPREAD SNOW NORTH, AND RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW DOWNEAST. SNOW
WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THURSDAY, WITH PERHAPS KBHB AND
KBGR BECOMING VFR IN THE AFTERNOON. FOR FAR EASTERN MAINE,
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR IN THE AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL INCREASE THURSDAY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM TO 10
TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KNOTS FOR MOST AREAS.

SHORT TERM: CONDITIONS WILL BE IMPROVING ACROSS THE FCST AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER THERE WILL STILL BE SCTD SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
THE CWA...ESPECIALLY NORTH...RESULTING IN AREAS OF IFR/MVFR VSBYS
AND CIGS. SKIES WILL BEGIN TO SCTR OUT ON FRIDAY...THEN BECOME
MOSTLY CLEAR WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN RAIN
AND FOG TONIGHT...WITH RAIN AND SNOW THURSDAY.

SHORT TERM: SHORT TERM: ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM...WINDS AND WAVES WILL BE FAIRLY HIGH ACROSS OUR MARINE
FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. AS A RESULT...WE WILL KEEP THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THRU THURSDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THURSDAY FOR MEZ001>006-
     010-011-031-032.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...NORCROSS
SHORT TERM...BERDES
LONG TERM...FOISY/BERDES
AVIATION...FOISY/BERDES
MARINE...NORCROSS/BERDES



000
FXUS61 KCAR 172157
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
457 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE
TONIGHT...THEN BEGIN TO EXIT ACROSS THE MARITIMES THURSDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION LATER FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE
TONIGHT THEN SLOWLY LIFT ACROSS THE MARITIMES THURSDAY. AT THE
SAME TIME...UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THE INTENSIFYING LOW WILL DRAW
COLDER AIR ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. PRECIPITATION WILL BE
MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...THOUGH A WINTRY MIX COULD OCCUR THIS EVENING. ACROSS
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA A WINTRY MIX WILL TRANSITION
TO SNOW EARLY TONIGHT THEN PERSIST INTO THURSDAY. PRECIPITATION
DOWNEAST WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN THIS
EVENING...BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO A WINTRY MIX AND EVENTUALLY
SNOW WHICH WILL THEN PERSIST INTO THURSDAY. WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON. GENERALLY EXPECT
STORM TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 6 TO 10 INCHES ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH 4 TO 8 INCHES
ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...3 TO 5 INCHES
INTERIOR DOWNEAST WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST.
HOWEVER...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS COULD BE
AFFECTED BY HOW QUICKLY THE TRANSITION TO SNOW OCCURS TONIGHT. ANY
ICE ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE
AROUND A TRACE. SNOW WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE THROUGH THE LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS THURSDAY. GUSTY WINDS WILL OCCUR
THURSDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 20S NORTH...TO AROUND 30 TO THE LOWER 30S DOWNEAST. HIGH
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 30 TO THE LOWER 30S
NORTH...TO THE MID TO UPPER 30S DOWNEAST.
&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ANY ONGOING SNOW ACROSS THE FCST AREA WILL TAPERING OFF TO SCTD SNOW
SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT...AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEPARTS TO THE
EAST. BY FRIDAY...CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINLY DRY AND COLD AS A POLAR
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BEGINS TO BUILDS OVER THE NORTHEAST. THIS HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
AS IT DRIFTS OVER THE NORTHEAST AND ERN CANADA.
&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOOKING AT A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW MAINLY FOR SOUTHERN AREAS
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. APPEARS TO BE A BETTER CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION SOUTH OF OUR AREA, BUT MODELS DISAGREE AS TO HOW
MUCH MAKES IT THIS FAR NORTH WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST TRYING
TO KEEP US DRY. BETTER CHANCE AT A POTENT SYSTEM AROUND WEDNESDAY
OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT (CHRISTMAS EVE). IT APPEARS THIS COULD BE A
WARM SYSTEM WITH A MIX TRANSITIONING TO RAIN FOR MANY AREAS. THIS
IS STILL WAY OUT THERE, HOWEVER, SO OF COURSE THINGS CAN CHANGE.
&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING WITH
WIDESPREAD SNOW NORTH, AND RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW DOWNEAST. SNOW
WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THURSDAY, WITH PERHAPS KBHB AND
KBGR BECOMING VFR IN THE AFTERNOON. FOR FAR EASTERN MAINE,
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR IN THE AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL INCREASE THURSDAY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM TO 10
TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KNOTS FOR MOST AREAS.

SHORT TERM: CONDITIONS WILL BE IMPROVING ACROSS THE FCST AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER THERE WILL STILL BE SCTD SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
THE CWA...ESPECIALLY NORTH...RESULTING IN AREAS OF IFR/MVFR VSBYS
AND CIGS. SKIES WILL BEGIN TO SCTR OUT ON FRIDAY...THEN BECOME
MOSTLY CLEAR WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN RAIN
AND FOG TONIGHT...WITH RAIN AND SNOW THURSDAY.

SHORT TERM: SHORT TERM: ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM...WINDS AND WAVES WILL BE FAIRLY HIGH ACROSS OUR MARINE
FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. AS A RESULT...WE WILL KEEP THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THRU THURSDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THURSDAY FOR MEZ001>006-
     010-011-031-032.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...NORCROSS
SHORT TERM...BERDES
LONG TERM...FOISY/BERDES
AVIATION...FOISY/BERDES
MARINE...NORCROSS/BERDES



000
FXUS61 KCAR 172157
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
457 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE
TONIGHT...THEN BEGIN TO EXIT ACROSS THE MARITIMES THURSDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION LATER FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE
TONIGHT THEN SLOWLY LIFT ACROSS THE MARITIMES THURSDAY. AT THE
SAME TIME...UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THE INTENSIFYING LOW WILL DRAW
COLDER AIR ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. PRECIPITATION WILL BE
MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...THOUGH A WINTRY MIX COULD OCCUR THIS EVENING. ACROSS
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA A WINTRY MIX WILL TRANSITION
TO SNOW EARLY TONIGHT THEN PERSIST INTO THURSDAY. PRECIPITATION
DOWNEAST WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN THIS
EVENING...BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO A WINTRY MIX AND EVENTUALLY
SNOW WHICH WILL THEN PERSIST INTO THURSDAY. WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON. GENERALLY EXPECT
STORM TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 6 TO 10 INCHES ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH 4 TO 8 INCHES
ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...3 TO 5 INCHES
INTERIOR DOWNEAST WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST.
HOWEVER...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS COULD BE
AFFECTED BY HOW QUICKLY THE TRANSITION TO SNOW OCCURS TONIGHT. ANY
ICE ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE
AROUND A TRACE. SNOW WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE THROUGH THE LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS THURSDAY. GUSTY WINDS WILL OCCUR
THURSDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 20S NORTH...TO AROUND 30 TO THE LOWER 30S DOWNEAST. HIGH
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 30 TO THE LOWER 30S
NORTH...TO THE MID TO UPPER 30S DOWNEAST.
&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ANY ONGOING SNOW ACROSS THE FCST AREA WILL TAPERING OFF TO SCTD SNOW
SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT...AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEPARTS TO THE
EAST. BY FRIDAY...CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINLY DRY AND COLD AS A POLAR
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BEGINS TO BUILDS OVER THE NORTHEAST. THIS HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
AS IT DRIFTS OVER THE NORTHEAST AND ERN CANADA.
&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOOKING AT A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW MAINLY FOR SOUTHERN AREAS
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. APPEARS TO BE A BETTER CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION SOUTH OF OUR AREA, BUT MODELS DISAGREE AS TO HOW
MUCH MAKES IT THIS FAR NORTH WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST TRYING
TO KEEP US DRY. BETTER CHANCE AT A POTENT SYSTEM AROUND WEDNESDAY
OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT (CHRISTMAS EVE). IT APPEARS THIS COULD BE A
WARM SYSTEM WITH A MIX TRANSITIONING TO RAIN FOR MANY AREAS. THIS
IS STILL WAY OUT THERE, HOWEVER, SO OF COURSE THINGS CAN CHANGE.
&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING WITH
WIDESPREAD SNOW NORTH, AND RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW DOWNEAST. SNOW
WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THURSDAY, WITH PERHAPS KBHB AND
KBGR BECOMING VFR IN THE AFTERNOON. FOR FAR EASTERN MAINE,
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR IN THE AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL INCREASE THURSDAY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM TO 10
TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KNOTS FOR MOST AREAS.

SHORT TERM: CONDITIONS WILL BE IMPROVING ACROSS THE FCST AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER THERE WILL STILL BE SCTD SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
THE CWA...ESPECIALLY NORTH...RESULTING IN AREAS OF IFR/MVFR VSBYS
AND CIGS. SKIES WILL BEGIN TO SCTR OUT ON FRIDAY...THEN BECOME
MOSTLY CLEAR WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN RAIN
AND FOG TONIGHT...WITH RAIN AND SNOW THURSDAY.

SHORT TERM: SHORT TERM: ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM...WINDS AND WAVES WILL BE FAIRLY HIGH ACROSS OUR MARINE
FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. AS A RESULT...WE WILL KEEP THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THRU THURSDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THURSDAY FOR MEZ001>006-
     010-011-031-032.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...NORCROSS
SHORT TERM...BERDES
LONG TERM...FOISY/BERDES
AVIATION...FOISY/BERDES
MARINE...NORCROSS/BERDES




000
FXUS61 KGYX 172032
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
332 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY EXIT THE GULF OF MAINE
THIS EVENING. BY THURSDAY MORNING...THE LOW WILL BE OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND IT.
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A WEAK COASTAL SYSTEM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
THAT MAY SPREAD SOME LIGHT SNOW INTO THE REGION. ANOTHER SYSTEM
WILL LIKELY STRENGTHEN AND PASS BY TO OUR WEST DURING THE MID
WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRES IN THE GULF OF ME ATTM...WITH SFC TROF
EXTENDING BACK INTO SRN QUEBEC AND ONTARIO. OVERNIGHT UPPER LOW
PRES WILL DRIFT UNDERNEATH THE MAJORITY OF THE CWFA. THIS SHOULD
HOLD TROF BACK ACROSS NRN ZONES...AND KEEP FOCUS OF MOISTURE
STREAM INTO THE WRN ME MTNS AND PARTS OF THE WHITES. HI-RES MODEL
FORECASTS INDICATE THAT MID LEVEL WARMTH WAS LIKELY MAXIMIZED A
COUPLE HOURS AGO...AND WE SHOULD SEE A STEADY COOLING TREND ALOFT.
THIS IS CONFIRMED BY PLYMOUTH STATE VERTICALLY POINTED RADAR
SHOWING SNOW LEVELS DECREASING OVER THE LAST HOUR. SPOTTER REPORTS
INDICATE MANY NRN MTNS AND VALLEYS ALIKE CHANGED OVER TO SN FOR
GOOD IN THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS AS WELL. ELY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL
ALSO CONTINUE TO DYNAMICALLY COOL THE COLUMN AND KEEP THE MTNS
SN THRU THE NIGHT. FORECAST MODEL ALSO DEEPEN THE H7 LOW THRU
MIDNIGHT...CLOSING OFF CONTOURS AS IT CROSSES THE STATE OF ME.
THIS SHOULD PROVIDE ENHANCED LIFT TO THE NW OF THE MID LEVEL LOW
TRACK...AGAIN KEEPING SNWFL FOCUSED OVER NRN ZONES. A BLEND OF THE
RFC QPF AND HI-RES MODEL GUIDANCE WAS USED TO PROVIDE A
REASONABLE REPRESENTATION OF HIGHER TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT. SNWFL
WILL WAX AND WANE A BIT THIS EVENING AS THE DRY SLOT LIFTS THRU
THE AREA...BUT I EXPECT FORCING TO REFOCUS LATER TONIGHT INTO THU.
HAVE EXPANDED THE WINTER WX ADVISORIES INTO COOS COUNTY NH...AND
ALL OF OXFORD...FRANKLIN...AND CENTRAL/SRN SOMERSET IN ME. THIS
WILL BE A RELATIVELY LONG DURATION LIGHT SNWFL EVENT...WHICH
COMPLICATES THINGS A BIT. I COULD EASILY SEE 6+ INCHES OF SNWFL
FOR NRN ZONES...BUT IT MAY FALL IN 18 OR 24 HOURS...SHY OF THE 9
INCH CRITERIA BEYOND 12 HOURS. A HEAVIER BAND OF SNWFL THIS
EVENING ACROSS NRN FRANKLIN OR CENTRAL SOMERSET COULD WARRANT AN
UPGRADE TO A WARNING IN THOSE AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LOW PULLS INTO THE MARITIMES THU...BUT COOL...MOIST...NWLY
FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE REGION. THE FORCED ASCENT OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN WILL KEEP SHSN GOING IN THE FAVORED NW UPSLOPE REGIONS.
THIS IS LIKELY WHEN THE BULK OF THE ACCUMULATIONS WILL COME FOR
NRN NH AND THE WHITE MTNS. NW WINDS WILL ALSO BE GUSTY ALONG THE
COAST AND INTERIOR.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE EXITS INTO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING SOUTH AND INTO NEW ENGLAND FROM CANADA.

MODELS THEN BRING A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE UP THE COAST MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. THERE IS NOT MUCH CONSENSUS WITH THE 12Z PACKAGE WITH
THIS FEATURE. CURRENTLY THE EURO IS THE FURTHEST WEST WITH THE
POSITION OF THE SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL FEATURES.

ALL EYES THEN SHIFT TO THE 24TH...AS LOW PRESSURE RAPIDLY
INTENSIFIES AND MOVES NORTH. QUESTION IS WHETHER THE SYSTEM
FOLLOWS THE COASTLINE OR CROSSES OVER THE GREAT LAKES. FOR
NOW...CONFIDENCE LEVEL IS LOW. IF THE GREAT LAKES TRACK
VERIFIES...EXPECT LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND HIGH WINDS OVER THE
REGION. SOUTHEASTERLY GRADIENT WILL LIKELY REACH STORM FORCE FOR A
SHORT PERIOD OVER THE WATERS WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS OVER LAND.
STRONG WINDS WOULD LIKELY REACH THE COASTLINE LATE WEDNESDAY ALONG
THE COAST AND HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...AREAS OF IFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NEWD UP
THE COAST THIS EVENING...WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR LINGERING IN ITS
WAKE. GRADUALLY SHRA WILL MIX WITH AND TRANSITION TO SHSN BY
THU. THIS WILL LEAD TO SCT IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES NEAR THE COAST.
IN THE MTNS...IFR CONDITIONS WILL LINGER THRU THU. GUSTY NW WINDS
ARE POSSIBLE THU AS WELL...WITH GUSTS AOA 20 KTS.

LONG TERM...A FEW AREAS OF MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING IN PATCHY
LIGHT SNOW MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. IFR CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING WITH A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING BY TO OUR
WEST WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...HAVE EXTENDED THE SCA IN TIME AND IN AREA TO THE
BAYS...AS WINDS LOOK TO INCREASE IN NW FLOW THU. WINDS WILL RELAX
BRIEFLY TONIGHT...BUT STEADILY INCREASE BY MORNING AS CAA
COMMENCES.

LONG TERM...SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUESDAY...WITH STORM FORCE
WINDS POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY AS A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
BRINGS HIGH SOUTHEAST WINDS TO THE REGION.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR MEZ007>009-
     012>014.
NH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR NHZ001-002.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

LEGRO/JC




000
FXUS61 KCAR 171737
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1237 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE TODAY
THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN BEGIN TO EXIT ACROSS THE MARITIMES
THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION LATER FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...
LOW PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON
WHILE A SECONDARY LOW INTENSIFIES ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE...WITH
A TROF EXTENDING WEST TO THE WEAKENING LOW. AN AREA OF
PRECIPITATION WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
BASED ON CRITICAL THICKNESSES AND CURRENT TEMPERATURES EXPECT
PRECIPITATION TO BE MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN ACROSS CENTRAL AND
DOWNEAST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN
MAINE EXPECT A WINTRY MIX OR RAIN THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MOSTLY A
WINTRY MIX ACROSS EXTREME NORTHERN AREAS. ANY ICE ACCUMULATIONS
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO BE A TENTH OF
AN INCH OR LESS WITH UP TO AROUND AN INCH OF SNOW ACCUMULATION.
THE INTENSIFYING LOW ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE WILL BEGIN TO DRAW
COLDER AIR BACK ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST LATER THIS
AFTERNOON WHICH WILL ALLOW PRECIPITATION TO TREND BACK
INCREASINGLY TO SNOW LATER THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE EXTENDED THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM CENTRAL PISCATAQUIS...TO NORTHERN
PENOBSCOT...TO SOUTHEAST AROOSTOOK COUNTIES INTO THURSDAY
AFTERNOON WHERE MORE SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL OCCUR
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. HAVE ALSO UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADJUST
FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS ALONG WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AND
PRECIPITATION TYPES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE RAIN/FROZEN PRECIP LINE WILL MAKE IT TO ABOUT PRESQUE ISLE-
PATTEN-KOKADJO BY THIS AFTERNOON. NORTH OF THIS LINE, THE WINTRY
MIX WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS. COLDER AIR, BOTH AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT, WILL QUICKLY MOVE IN TONIGHT AS THE LOW SHIFTS
INTO NOVA SCOTIA. AS SUCH, THE PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE OVER TO
ALL SNOW, STARTING FIRST IN THE WESTERN SAINT JOHN AND ALLAGASH
VALLEYS AND THEN SLIDING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THIS IS WHEN THE MOST ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL OCCUR, ESPECIALLY
OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THE BEST FORCING AND
THEREFORE THE HIGHEST TOTAL QPF LOOKS TO SET UP A BIT FURTHER
SOUTH THAN WHAT HAD BEEN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED, SO THE HEAVIEST
SNOW AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN SHIFTED A BIT SOUTH AS WELL. STILL, 6-10
INCHES OF SNOW AND SLEET IS LIKELY OVER NORTHERN MAINE, WITH THE
CENTRAL HIGHLANDS TO GET 3 TO 6 INCHES. SOUTHERN AND DOWNEAST
LOCALES WILL MOSTLY SEE 2 INCHES OR LESS. ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL
BE GREATEST ACROSS THE NORTH AS WELL, WITH UP TO A TENTH OF AN
INCH POSSIBLE.
&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL ACROSS MSLY NRN AND ERN PTNS OF THE FA WILL
WIND DOWN TO SN SHWRS BY THU AFTN...END ACROSS THE SRN HLF OF THE
FA THU NGT AND THEN END ACROSS THE N FRI MORN. OTHERWISE...BRISK
AND COOL CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE PRES GRAD ON THE WEST
SIDE OF THE LOW PRES. BOTH LOW TEMPS THU AND HIGHS FRI WILL BE
RELATIVELY MILD...SINCE THE AIR MASS BEHIND THE LOW IS NOT ARCTIC
IN CHARACTER. MOST MODELS INDICATE SIG LLVL DRYING MOVING INTO THE
THE FA FRI NGT FROM QB PROV WITH THE APCH OF SFC HI PRES FROM
CNTRL CAN... SO WE WILL GO WITH CLRG THIS PD. IF THIS DRYING IS IN
ERROR...SKIES WILL REMAIN CLDY THRU SAT...WITH ANOTHER STRONG
SUBSIDENCE INVSN FORMING BY SAT MORN PREVENTING ANY LLVL MOISTURE
FROM LOFTING ABV 925 MB. BASED ON A FCST OF CLRG AND DIMINISHING
WINDS LATE...WE WILL GO WITH SOME MODEST VLY RADIATIONAL COOLING
OVRNGT LOWS FOR ERLY SAT MORN.
&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ASSUMING THE LLVLS OF THE ATMOSPHERE DRY OUT FRI NGT...SAT SHOULD
BE MSLY SUNNY WITH LGT WINDS AS SFC HI PRES CROSSES THE REGION.
SAT NGT SHOULD BE FAIR...BUT WITH WINDS JUST ABV THE SFC TURNING
TO THE S BEHIND HIGH PRES DEPARTING VIA THE CAN MARITIMES...SOME
ST IS LIKELY TO ADVC NWRD INTO THE REGION FROM THE GULF OF ME...
SPCLY LATE AT NGT.

OTHERWISE...THE 00Z DTMNSTC GFS IS CONSIDERABLY DRIER THAN THE
CORRESPONDING 00Z ECMWF FOR SUN THRU MON...WITH THE GFS MUCH
WEAKER WITH S/WVS MOVING TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE MIDWEST FOR
BOTH LATE SUN AND AGAIN LATE SUN NGT THRU MON. TAKING A BLEND
BETWEEN BOTH MODELS RESULTS IN A FAIRLY LENGTHY PD OF CHC SN
POPS ACROSS CNTRL AND DOWNEAST AREAS FROM LATE SUN INTO MON NGT
WITH A CHC OF RN DURG DAY PDS ALG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. ACROSS THE
N...POPS MSLY REMAIN IN THE SLIGHT CHC CATEGORY.

GIVEN THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE LONG RANGE MODELS REGARDING THE
AMPLITUDE...PLACEMENT AND POTENTIAL IMPACT OF S/WVS FROM THE
MIDWEST...FCST CONFIDENCE IS CONSIDERED TO BE LOWER THAN AVG FOR
THIS PTN OF THE LONG RANGE. REGARDLESS OF THE OUTCOME MOST MODELS
AGREE THAT THE REGION SHOULD EXPERIENCE A BREAK ON TUE BEFORE A
POTENTIALLY MORE SIGNIFICANT LOW FROM THE MIDWEST APCHS THE REGION
ON WED. TEMPS IN THE LONG RANGE WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY MILD FOR
THIS TM OF SEASON...WITH NO ARCTIC AIR XPCTD.
&&

.AVIATION /17Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: GENERALLY EXPECT IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. A WINTRY MIX IS EXPECTED ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH RAIN ACROSS CENTRAL AND
DOWNEAST AREAS. PRECIPITATION WILL TRANSITION BACK TO SNOW...FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST...ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: IFR CONDITIONS WITH CLGS AND VSBYS IN SN WILL
IMPROVE SLOWLY TO MVFR SW TO NE ACROSS THE TAF SITES THU AFTN AND
THU NGT...THEN TO VFR LATE THU NGT AND FRI MORN. AFTWRDS...ALL
SITES SHOULD REMAIN VFR FRI AFTN THRU SAT NGT...THEN PERHAPS LOWER
TO MVFR CLGS AND VSBYS IN LGT SN ON SUN ACROSS DOWNEAST SITES.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS
EVENING...WHICH WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED THROUGH TONIGHT.
VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN RAIN AND FOG THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: WVS AND OR WINDS WILL REMAIN IN SCA CRITERIA INTO FRI
MORN...THEN SLOWLY SUBSIDE BLO CRITERIA FRI AFTN AND FRI NGT...
THEN REMAIN BLO SCA SAT AND SUN. KEPT CLOSE TO WW3 WV GUIDANCE FOR
FCST WV HTS THIS UPDATE.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THURSDAY FOR MEZ001>006-
     010.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...NORCROSS/HASTINGS
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...NORCROSS/VJN
MARINE...NORCROSS/VJN



000
FXUS61 KCAR 171737
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1237 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE TODAY
THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN BEGIN TO EXIT ACROSS THE MARITIMES
THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION LATER FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...
LOW PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON
WHILE A SECONDARY LOW INTENSIFIES ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE...WITH
A TROF EXTENDING WEST TO THE WEAKENING LOW. AN AREA OF
PRECIPITATION WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
BASED ON CRITICAL THICKNESSES AND CURRENT TEMPERATURES EXPECT
PRECIPITATION TO BE MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN ACROSS CENTRAL AND
DOWNEAST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN
MAINE EXPECT A WINTRY MIX OR RAIN THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MOSTLY A
WINTRY MIX ACROSS EXTREME NORTHERN AREAS. ANY ICE ACCUMULATIONS
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO BE A TENTH OF
AN INCH OR LESS WITH UP TO AROUND AN INCH OF SNOW ACCUMULATION.
THE INTENSIFYING LOW ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE WILL BEGIN TO DRAW
COLDER AIR BACK ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST LATER THIS
AFTERNOON WHICH WILL ALLOW PRECIPITATION TO TREND BACK
INCREASINGLY TO SNOW LATER THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE EXTENDED THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM CENTRAL PISCATAQUIS...TO NORTHERN
PENOBSCOT...TO SOUTHEAST AROOSTOOK COUNTIES INTO THURSDAY
AFTERNOON WHERE MORE SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL OCCUR
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. HAVE ALSO UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADJUST
FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS ALONG WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AND
PRECIPITATION TYPES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE RAIN/FROZEN PRECIP LINE WILL MAKE IT TO ABOUT PRESQUE ISLE-
PATTEN-KOKADJO BY THIS AFTERNOON. NORTH OF THIS LINE, THE WINTRY
MIX WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS. COLDER AIR, BOTH AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT, WILL QUICKLY MOVE IN TONIGHT AS THE LOW SHIFTS
INTO NOVA SCOTIA. AS SUCH, THE PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE OVER TO
ALL SNOW, STARTING FIRST IN THE WESTERN SAINT JOHN AND ALLAGASH
VALLEYS AND THEN SLIDING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THIS IS WHEN THE MOST ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL OCCUR, ESPECIALLY
OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THE BEST FORCING AND
THEREFORE THE HIGHEST TOTAL QPF LOOKS TO SET UP A BIT FURTHER
SOUTH THAN WHAT HAD BEEN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED, SO THE HEAVIEST
SNOW AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN SHIFTED A BIT SOUTH AS WELL. STILL, 6-10
INCHES OF SNOW AND SLEET IS LIKELY OVER NORTHERN MAINE, WITH THE
CENTRAL HIGHLANDS TO GET 3 TO 6 INCHES. SOUTHERN AND DOWNEAST
LOCALES WILL MOSTLY SEE 2 INCHES OR LESS. ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL
BE GREATEST ACROSS THE NORTH AS WELL, WITH UP TO A TENTH OF AN
INCH POSSIBLE.
&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL ACROSS MSLY NRN AND ERN PTNS OF THE FA WILL
WIND DOWN TO SN SHWRS BY THU AFTN...END ACROSS THE SRN HLF OF THE
FA THU NGT AND THEN END ACROSS THE N FRI MORN. OTHERWISE...BRISK
AND COOL CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE PRES GRAD ON THE WEST
SIDE OF THE LOW PRES. BOTH LOW TEMPS THU AND HIGHS FRI WILL BE
RELATIVELY MILD...SINCE THE AIR MASS BEHIND THE LOW IS NOT ARCTIC
IN CHARACTER. MOST MODELS INDICATE SIG LLVL DRYING MOVING INTO THE
THE FA FRI NGT FROM QB PROV WITH THE APCH OF SFC HI PRES FROM
CNTRL CAN... SO WE WILL GO WITH CLRG THIS PD. IF THIS DRYING IS IN
ERROR...SKIES WILL REMAIN CLDY THRU SAT...WITH ANOTHER STRONG
SUBSIDENCE INVSN FORMING BY SAT MORN PREVENTING ANY LLVL MOISTURE
FROM LOFTING ABV 925 MB. BASED ON A FCST OF CLRG AND DIMINISHING
WINDS LATE...WE WILL GO WITH SOME MODEST VLY RADIATIONAL COOLING
OVRNGT LOWS FOR ERLY SAT MORN.
&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ASSUMING THE LLVLS OF THE ATMOSPHERE DRY OUT FRI NGT...SAT SHOULD
BE MSLY SUNNY WITH LGT WINDS AS SFC HI PRES CROSSES THE REGION.
SAT NGT SHOULD BE FAIR...BUT WITH WINDS JUST ABV THE SFC TURNING
TO THE S BEHIND HIGH PRES DEPARTING VIA THE CAN MARITIMES...SOME
ST IS LIKELY TO ADVC NWRD INTO THE REGION FROM THE GULF OF ME...
SPCLY LATE AT NGT.

OTHERWISE...THE 00Z DTMNSTC GFS IS CONSIDERABLY DRIER THAN THE
CORRESPONDING 00Z ECMWF FOR SUN THRU MON...WITH THE GFS MUCH
WEAKER WITH S/WVS MOVING TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE MIDWEST FOR
BOTH LATE SUN AND AGAIN LATE SUN NGT THRU MON. TAKING A BLEND
BETWEEN BOTH MODELS RESULTS IN A FAIRLY LENGTHY PD OF CHC SN
POPS ACROSS CNTRL AND DOWNEAST AREAS FROM LATE SUN INTO MON NGT
WITH A CHC OF RN DURG DAY PDS ALG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. ACROSS THE
N...POPS MSLY REMAIN IN THE SLIGHT CHC CATEGORY.

GIVEN THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE LONG RANGE MODELS REGARDING THE
AMPLITUDE...PLACEMENT AND POTENTIAL IMPACT OF S/WVS FROM THE
MIDWEST...FCST CONFIDENCE IS CONSIDERED TO BE LOWER THAN AVG FOR
THIS PTN OF THE LONG RANGE. REGARDLESS OF THE OUTCOME MOST MODELS
AGREE THAT THE REGION SHOULD EXPERIENCE A BREAK ON TUE BEFORE A
POTENTIALLY MORE SIGNIFICANT LOW FROM THE MIDWEST APCHS THE REGION
ON WED. TEMPS IN THE LONG RANGE WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY MILD FOR
THIS TM OF SEASON...WITH NO ARCTIC AIR XPCTD.
&&

.AVIATION /17Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: GENERALLY EXPECT IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. A WINTRY MIX IS EXPECTED ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH RAIN ACROSS CENTRAL AND
DOWNEAST AREAS. PRECIPITATION WILL TRANSITION BACK TO SNOW...FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST...ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: IFR CONDITIONS WITH CLGS AND VSBYS IN SN WILL
IMPROVE SLOWLY TO MVFR SW TO NE ACROSS THE TAF SITES THU AFTN AND
THU NGT...THEN TO VFR LATE THU NGT AND FRI MORN. AFTWRDS...ALL
SITES SHOULD REMAIN VFR FRI AFTN THRU SAT NGT...THEN PERHAPS LOWER
TO MVFR CLGS AND VSBYS IN LGT SN ON SUN ACROSS DOWNEAST SITES.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS
EVENING...WHICH WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED THROUGH TONIGHT.
VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN RAIN AND FOG THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: WVS AND OR WINDS WILL REMAIN IN SCA CRITERIA INTO FRI
MORN...THEN SLOWLY SUBSIDE BLO CRITERIA FRI AFTN AND FRI NGT...
THEN REMAIN BLO SCA SAT AND SUN. KEPT CLOSE TO WW3 WV GUIDANCE FOR
FCST WV HTS THIS UPDATE.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THURSDAY FOR MEZ001>006-
     010.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...NORCROSS/HASTINGS
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...NORCROSS/VJN
MARINE...NORCROSS/VJN



000
FXUS61 KCAR 171737
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1237 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE TODAY
THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN BEGIN TO EXIT ACROSS THE MARITIMES
THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION LATER FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...
LOW PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON
WHILE A SECONDARY LOW INTENSIFIES ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE...WITH
A TROF EXTENDING WEST TO THE WEAKENING LOW. AN AREA OF
PRECIPITATION WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
BASED ON CRITICAL THICKNESSES AND CURRENT TEMPERATURES EXPECT
PRECIPITATION TO BE MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN ACROSS CENTRAL AND
DOWNEAST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN
MAINE EXPECT A WINTRY MIX OR RAIN THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MOSTLY A
WINTRY MIX ACROSS EXTREME NORTHERN AREAS. ANY ICE ACCUMULATIONS
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO BE A TENTH OF
AN INCH OR LESS WITH UP TO AROUND AN INCH OF SNOW ACCUMULATION.
THE INTENSIFYING LOW ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE WILL BEGIN TO DRAW
COLDER AIR BACK ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST LATER THIS
AFTERNOON WHICH WILL ALLOW PRECIPITATION TO TREND BACK
INCREASINGLY TO SNOW LATER THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE EXTENDED THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM CENTRAL PISCATAQUIS...TO NORTHERN
PENOBSCOT...TO SOUTHEAST AROOSTOOK COUNTIES INTO THURSDAY
AFTERNOON WHERE MORE SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL OCCUR
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. HAVE ALSO UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADJUST
FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS ALONG WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AND
PRECIPITATION TYPES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE RAIN/FROZEN PRECIP LINE WILL MAKE IT TO ABOUT PRESQUE ISLE-
PATTEN-KOKADJO BY THIS AFTERNOON. NORTH OF THIS LINE, THE WINTRY
MIX WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS. COLDER AIR, BOTH AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT, WILL QUICKLY MOVE IN TONIGHT AS THE LOW SHIFTS
INTO NOVA SCOTIA. AS SUCH, THE PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE OVER TO
ALL SNOW, STARTING FIRST IN THE WESTERN SAINT JOHN AND ALLAGASH
VALLEYS AND THEN SLIDING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THIS IS WHEN THE MOST ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL OCCUR, ESPECIALLY
OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THE BEST FORCING AND
THEREFORE THE HIGHEST TOTAL QPF LOOKS TO SET UP A BIT FURTHER
SOUTH THAN WHAT HAD BEEN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED, SO THE HEAVIEST
SNOW AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN SHIFTED A BIT SOUTH AS WELL. STILL, 6-10
INCHES OF SNOW AND SLEET IS LIKELY OVER NORTHERN MAINE, WITH THE
CENTRAL HIGHLANDS TO GET 3 TO 6 INCHES. SOUTHERN AND DOWNEAST
LOCALES WILL MOSTLY SEE 2 INCHES OR LESS. ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL
BE GREATEST ACROSS THE NORTH AS WELL, WITH UP TO A TENTH OF AN
INCH POSSIBLE.
&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL ACROSS MSLY NRN AND ERN PTNS OF THE FA WILL
WIND DOWN TO SN SHWRS BY THU AFTN...END ACROSS THE SRN HLF OF THE
FA THU NGT AND THEN END ACROSS THE N FRI MORN. OTHERWISE...BRISK
AND COOL CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE PRES GRAD ON THE WEST
SIDE OF THE LOW PRES. BOTH LOW TEMPS THU AND HIGHS FRI WILL BE
RELATIVELY MILD...SINCE THE AIR MASS BEHIND THE LOW IS NOT ARCTIC
IN CHARACTER. MOST MODELS INDICATE SIG LLVL DRYING MOVING INTO THE
THE FA FRI NGT FROM QB PROV WITH THE APCH OF SFC HI PRES FROM
CNTRL CAN... SO WE WILL GO WITH CLRG THIS PD. IF THIS DRYING IS IN
ERROR...SKIES WILL REMAIN CLDY THRU SAT...WITH ANOTHER STRONG
SUBSIDENCE INVSN FORMING BY SAT MORN PREVENTING ANY LLVL MOISTURE
FROM LOFTING ABV 925 MB. BASED ON A FCST OF CLRG AND DIMINISHING
WINDS LATE...WE WILL GO WITH SOME MODEST VLY RADIATIONAL COOLING
OVRNGT LOWS FOR ERLY SAT MORN.
&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ASSUMING THE LLVLS OF THE ATMOSPHERE DRY OUT FRI NGT...SAT SHOULD
BE MSLY SUNNY WITH LGT WINDS AS SFC HI PRES CROSSES THE REGION.
SAT NGT SHOULD BE FAIR...BUT WITH WINDS JUST ABV THE SFC TURNING
TO THE S BEHIND HIGH PRES DEPARTING VIA THE CAN MARITIMES...SOME
ST IS LIKELY TO ADVC NWRD INTO THE REGION FROM THE GULF OF ME...
SPCLY LATE AT NGT.

OTHERWISE...THE 00Z DTMNSTC GFS IS CONSIDERABLY DRIER THAN THE
CORRESPONDING 00Z ECMWF FOR SUN THRU MON...WITH THE GFS MUCH
WEAKER WITH S/WVS MOVING TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE MIDWEST FOR
BOTH LATE SUN AND AGAIN LATE SUN NGT THRU MON. TAKING A BLEND
BETWEEN BOTH MODELS RESULTS IN A FAIRLY LENGTHY PD OF CHC SN
POPS ACROSS CNTRL AND DOWNEAST AREAS FROM LATE SUN INTO MON NGT
WITH A CHC OF RN DURG DAY PDS ALG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. ACROSS THE
N...POPS MSLY REMAIN IN THE SLIGHT CHC CATEGORY.

GIVEN THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE LONG RANGE MODELS REGARDING THE
AMPLITUDE...PLACEMENT AND POTENTIAL IMPACT OF S/WVS FROM THE
MIDWEST...FCST CONFIDENCE IS CONSIDERED TO BE LOWER THAN AVG FOR
THIS PTN OF THE LONG RANGE. REGARDLESS OF THE OUTCOME MOST MODELS
AGREE THAT THE REGION SHOULD EXPERIENCE A BREAK ON TUE BEFORE A
POTENTIALLY MORE SIGNIFICANT LOW FROM THE MIDWEST APCHS THE REGION
ON WED. TEMPS IN THE LONG RANGE WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY MILD FOR
THIS TM OF SEASON...WITH NO ARCTIC AIR XPCTD.
&&

.AVIATION /17Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: GENERALLY EXPECT IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. A WINTRY MIX IS EXPECTED ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH RAIN ACROSS CENTRAL AND
DOWNEAST AREAS. PRECIPITATION WILL TRANSITION BACK TO SNOW...FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST...ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: IFR CONDITIONS WITH CLGS AND VSBYS IN SN WILL
IMPROVE SLOWLY TO MVFR SW TO NE ACROSS THE TAF SITES THU AFTN AND
THU NGT...THEN TO VFR LATE THU NGT AND FRI MORN. AFTWRDS...ALL
SITES SHOULD REMAIN VFR FRI AFTN THRU SAT NGT...THEN PERHAPS LOWER
TO MVFR CLGS AND VSBYS IN LGT SN ON SUN ACROSS DOWNEAST SITES.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS
EVENING...WHICH WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED THROUGH TONIGHT.
VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN RAIN AND FOG THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: WVS AND OR WINDS WILL REMAIN IN SCA CRITERIA INTO FRI
MORN...THEN SLOWLY SUBSIDE BLO CRITERIA FRI AFTN AND FRI NGT...
THEN REMAIN BLO SCA SAT AND SUN. KEPT CLOSE TO WW3 WV GUIDANCE FOR
FCST WV HTS THIS UPDATE.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THURSDAY FOR MEZ001>006-
     010.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...NORCROSS/HASTINGS
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...NORCROSS/VJN
MARINE...NORCROSS/VJN



000
FXUS61 KCAR 171737
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1237 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE TODAY
THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN BEGIN TO EXIT ACROSS THE MARITIMES
THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION LATER FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...
LOW PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON
WHILE A SECONDARY LOW INTENSIFIES ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE...WITH
A TROF EXTENDING WEST TO THE WEAKENING LOW. AN AREA OF
PRECIPITATION WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
BASED ON CRITICAL THICKNESSES AND CURRENT TEMPERATURES EXPECT
PRECIPITATION TO BE MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN ACROSS CENTRAL AND
DOWNEAST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN
MAINE EXPECT A WINTRY MIX OR RAIN THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MOSTLY A
WINTRY MIX ACROSS EXTREME NORTHERN AREAS. ANY ICE ACCUMULATIONS
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO BE A TENTH OF
AN INCH OR LESS WITH UP TO AROUND AN INCH OF SNOW ACCUMULATION.
THE INTENSIFYING LOW ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE WILL BEGIN TO DRAW
COLDER AIR BACK ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST LATER THIS
AFTERNOON WHICH WILL ALLOW PRECIPITATION TO TREND BACK
INCREASINGLY TO SNOW LATER THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE EXTENDED THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM CENTRAL PISCATAQUIS...TO NORTHERN
PENOBSCOT...TO SOUTHEAST AROOSTOOK COUNTIES INTO THURSDAY
AFTERNOON WHERE MORE SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL OCCUR
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. HAVE ALSO UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADJUST
FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS ALONG WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AND
PRECIPITATION TYPES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE RAIN/FROZEN PRECIP LINE WILL MAKE IT TO ABOUT PRESQUE ISLE-
PATTEN-KOKADJO BY THIS AFTERNOON. NORTH OF THIS LINE, THE WINTRY
MIX WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS. COLDER AIR, BOTH AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT, WILL QUICKLY MOVE IN TONIGHT AS THE LOW SHIFTS
INTO NOVA SCOTIA. AS SUCH, THE PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE OVER TO
ALL SNOW, STARTING FIRST IN THE WESTERN SAINT JOHN AND ALLAGASH
VALLEYS AND THEN SLIDING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THIS IS WHEN THE MOST ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL OCCUR, ESPECIALLY
OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THE BEST FORCING AND
THEREFORE THE HIGHEST TOTAL QPF LOOKS TO SET UP A BIT FURTHER
SOUTH THAN WHAT HAD BEEN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED, SO THE HEAVIEST
SNOW AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN SHIFTED A BIT SOUTH AS WELL. STILL, 6-10
INCHES OF SNOW AND SLEET IS LIKELY OVER NORTHERN MAINE, WITH THE
CENTRAL HIGHLANDS TO GET 3 TO 6 INCHES. SOUTHERN AND DOWNEAST
LOCALES WILL MOSTLY SEE 2 INCHES OR LESS. ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL
BE GREATEST ACROSS THE NORTH AS WELL, WITH UP TO A TENTH OF AN
INCH POSSIBLE.
&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL ACROSS MSLY NRN AND ERN PTNS OF THE FA WILL
WIND DOWN TO SN SHWRS BY THU AFTN...END ACROSS THE SRN HLF OF THE
FA THU NGT AND THEN END ACROSS THE N FRI MORN. OTHERWISE...BRISK
AND COOL CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE PRES GRAD ON THE WEST
SIDE OF THE LOW PRES. BOTH LOW TEMPS THU AND HIGHS FRI WILL BE
RELATIVELY MILD...SINCE THE AIR MASS BEHIND THE LOW IS NOT ARCTIC
IN CHARACTER. MOST MODELS INDICATE SIG LLVL DRYING MOVING INTO THE
THE FA FRI NGT FROM QB PROV WITH THE APCH OF SFC HI PRES FROM
CNTRL CAN... SO WE WILL GO WITH CLRG THIS PD. IF THIS DRYING IS IN
ERROR...SKIES WILL REMAIN CLDY THRU SAT...WITH ANOTHER STRONG
SUBSIDENCE INVSN FORMING BY SAT MORN PREVENTING ANY LLVL MOISTURE
FROM LOFTING ABV 925 MB. BASED ON A FCST OF CLRG AND DIMINISHING
WINDS LATE...WE WILL GO WITH SOME MODEST VLY RADIATIONAL COOLING
OVRNGT LOWS FOR ERLY SAT MORN.
&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ASSUMING THE LLVLS OF THE ATMOSPHERE DRY OUT FRI NGT...SAT SHOULD
BE MSLY SUNNY WITH LGT WINDS AS SFC HI PRES CROSSES THE REGION.
SAT NGT SHOULD BE FAIR...BUT WITH WINDS JUST ABV THE SFC TURNING
TO THE S BEHIND HIGH PRES DEPARTING VIA THE CAN MARITIMES...SOME
ST IS LIKELY TO ADVC NWRD INTO THE REGION FROM THE GULF OF ME...
SPCLY LATE AT NGT.

OTHERWISE...THE 00Z DTMNSTC GFS IS CONSIDERABLY DRIER THAN THE
CORRESPONDING 00Z ECMWF FOR SUN THRU MON...WITH THE GFS MUCH
WEAKER WITH S/WVS MOVING TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE MIDWEST FOR
BOTH LATE SUN AND AGAIN LATE SUN NGT THRU MON. TAKING A BLEND
BETWEEN BOTH MODELS RESULTS IN A FAIRLY LENGTHY PD OF CHC SN
POPS ACROSS CNTRL AND DOWNEAST AREAS FROM LATE SUN INTO MON NGT
WITH A CHC OF RN DURG DAY PDS ALG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. ACROSS THE
N...POPS MSLY REMAIN IN THE SLIGHT CHC CATEGORY.

GIVEN THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE LONG RANGE MODELS REGARDING THE
AMPLITUDE...PLACEMENT AND POTENTIAL IMPACT OF S/WVS FROM THE
MIDWEST...FCST CONFIDENCE IS CONSIDERED TO BE LOWER THAN AVG FOR
THIS PTN OF THE LONG RANGE. REGARDLESS OF THE OUTCOME MOST MODELS
AGREE THAT THE REGION SHOULD EXPERIENCE A BREAK ON TUE BEFORE A
POTENTIALLY MORE SIGNIFICANT LOW FROM THE MIDWEST APCHS THE REGION
ON WED. TEMPS IN THE LONG RANGE WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY MILD FOR
THIS TM OF SEASON...WITH NO ARCTIC AIR XPCTD.
&&

.AVIATION /17Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: GENERALLY EXPECT IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. A WINTRY MIX IS EXPECTED ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH RAIN ACROSS CENTRAL AND
DOWNEAST AREAS. PRECIPITATION WILL TRANSITION BACK TO SNOW...FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST...ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: IFR CONDITIONS WITH CLGS AND VSBYS IN SN WILL
IMPROVE SLOWLY TO MVFR SW TO NE ACROSS THE TAF SITES THU AFTN AND
THU NGT...THEN TO VFR LATE THU NGT AND FRI MORN. AFTWRDS...ALL
SITES SHOULD REMAIN VFR FRI AFTN THRU SAT NGT...THEN PERHAPS LOWER
TO MVFR CLGS AND VSBYS IN LGT SN ON SUN ACROSS DOWNEAST SITES.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS
EVENING...WHICH WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED THROUGH TONIGHT.
VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN RAIN AND FOG THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: WVS AND OR WINDS WILL REMAIN IN SCA CRITERIA INTO FRI
MORN...THEN SLOWLY SUBSIDE BLO CRITERIA FRI AFTN AND FRI NGT...
THEN REMAIN BLO SCA SAT AND SUN. KEPT CLOSE TO WW3 WV GUIDANCE FOR
FCST WV HTS THIS UPDATE.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THURSDAY FOR MEZ001>006-
     010.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...NORCROSS/HASTINGS
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...NORCROSS/VJN
MARINE...NORCROSS/VJN



000
FXUS61 KCAR 171522
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1022 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE TODAY
THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN BEGIN TO EXIT ACROSS THE MARITIMES
THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION LATER FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...
LOW PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY WHILE A
SECONDARY LOW INTENSIFIES ACROSS THE GULF OF A MAINE...WITH A TROF
EXTENDING WEST TO THE WEAKENING LOW. AN AREA OF PRECIPITATION
WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. BASED ON
CRITICAL THICKNESSES AND CURRENT TEMPERATURES EXPECT PRECIPITATION
TO BE MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN MAINE
EXPECT A WINTRY MIX OR RAIN THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MOSTLY A WINTRY
MIX ACROSS EXTREME NORTHERN AREAS. ANY ICE ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO BE A TENTH OF AN
INCH OR LESS WITH UP TO AROUND AN INCH OF SNOW ACCUMULATION. THE
INTENSIFYING LOW ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE WILL BEGIN TO DRAW
COLDER AIR BACK ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST LATER THIS
AFTERNOON WHICH WILL ALLOW PRECIPITATION TO TREND BACK
INCREASINGLY TO SNOW LATER THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE NOT MADE ANY
CHANGES TO THE WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES WITH THIS UPDATE. HAVE
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADJUST FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS ALONG WITH
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION TYPES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE RAIN/FROZEN PRECIP LINE WILL MAKE IT TO ABOUT PRESQUE ISLE-
PATTEN-KOKADJO BY THIS AFTERNOON. NORTH OF THIS LINE, THE WINTRY
MIX WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS. COLDER AIR, BOTH AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT, WILL QUICKLY MOVE IN TONIGHT AS THE LOW SHIFTS
INTO NOVA SCOTIA. AS SUCH, THE PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE OVER TO
ALL SNOW, STARTING FIRST IN THE WESTERN SAINT JOHN AND ALLAGASH
VALLEYS AND THEN SLIDING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THIS IS WHEN THE MOST ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL OCCUR, ESPECIALLY
OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THE BEST FORCING AND
THEREFORE THE HIGHEST TOTAL QPF LOOKS TO SET UP A BIT FURTHER
SOUTH THAN WHAT HAD BEEN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED, SO THE HEAVIEST
SNOW AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN SHIFTED A BIT SOUTH AS WELL. STILL, 6-10
INCHES OF SNOW AND SLEET IS LIKELY OVER NORTHERN MAINE, WITH THE
CENTRAL HIGHLANDS TO GET 3 TO 6 INCHES. SOUTHERN AND DOWNEAST
LOCALES WILL MOSTLY SEE 2 INCHES OR LESS. ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL
BE GREATEST ACROSS THE NORTH AS WELL, WITH UP TO A TENTH OF AN
INCH POSSIBLE.
&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL ACROSS MSLY NRN AND ERN PTNS OF THE FA WILL
WIND DOWN TO SN SHWRS BY THU AFTN...END ACROSS THE SRN HLF OF THE
FA THU NGT AND THEN END ACROSS THE N FRI MORN. OTHERWISE...BRISK
AND COOL CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE PRES GRAD ON THE WEST
SIDE OF THE LOW PRES. BOTH LOW TEMPS THU AND HIGHS FRI WILL BE
RELATIVELY MILD...SINCE THE AIR MASS BEHIND THE LOW IS NOT ARCTIC
IN CHARACTER. MOST MODELS INDICATE SIG LLVL DRYING MOVING INTO THE
THE FA FRI NGT FROM QB PROV WITH THE APCH OF SFC HI PRES FROM
CNTRL CAN... SO WE WILL GO WITH CLRG THIS PD. IF THIS DRYING IS IN
ERROR...SKIES WILL REMAIN CLDY THRU SAT...WITH ANOTHER STRONG
SUBSIDENCE INVSN FORMING BY SAT MORN PREVENTING ANY LLVL MOISTURE
FROM LOFTING ABV 925 MB. BASED ON A FCST OF CLRG AND DIMINISHING
WINDS LATE...WE WILL GO WITH SOME MODEST VLY RADIATIONAL COOLING
OVRNGT LOWS FOR ERLY SAT MORN.
&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ASSUMING THE LLVLS OF THE ATMOSPHERE DRY OUT FRI NGT...SAT SHOULD
BE MSLY SUNNY WITH LGT WINDS AS SFC HI PRES CROSSES THE REGION.
SAT NGT SHOULD BE FAIR...BUT WITH WINDS JUST ABV THE SFC TURNING
TO THE S BEHIND HIGH PRES DEPARTING VIA THE CAN MARITIMES...SOME
ST IS LIKELY TO ADVC NWRD INTO THE REGION FROM THE GULF OF ME...
SPCLY LATE AT NGT.

OTHERWISE...THE 00Z DTMNSTC GFS IS CONSIDERABLY DRIER THAN THE
CORRESPONDING 00Z ECMWF FOR SUN THRU MON...WITH THE GFS MUCH
WEAKER WITH S/WVS MOVING TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE MIDWEST FOR
BOTH LATE SUN AND AGAIN LATE SUN NGT THRU MON. TAKING A BLEND
BETWEEN BOTH MODELS RESULTS IN A FAIRLY LENGTHY PD OF CHC SN
POPS ACROSS CNTRL AND DOWNEAST AREAS FROM LATE SUN INTO MON NGT
WITH A CHC OF RN DURG DAY PDS ALG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. ACROSS THE
N...POPS MSLY REMAIN IN THE SLIGHT CHC CATEGORY.

GIVEN THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE LONG RANGE MODELS REGARDING THE
AMPLITUDE...PLACEMENT AND POTENTIAL IMPACT OF S/WVS FROM THE
MIDWEST...FCST CONFIDENCE IS CONSIDERED TO BE LOWER THAN AVG FOR
THIS PTN OF THE LONG RANGE. REGARDLESS OF THE OUTCOME MOST MODELS
AGREE THAT THE REGION SHOULD EXPERIENCE A BREAK ON TUE BEFORE A
POTENTIALLY MORE SIGNIFICANT LOW FROM THE MIDWEST APCHS THE REGION
ON WED. TEMPS IN THE LONG RANGE WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY MILD FOR
THIS TM OF SEASON...WITH NO ARCTIC AIR XPCTD.
&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: GENERALLY EXPECT IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. A WINTRY MIX IS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH RAIN ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST
AREAS. PRECIPITATION WILL TRANSITION BACK TO SNOW...FROM NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST...ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: IFR CONDITIONS WITH CLGS AND VSBYS IN SN WILL
IMPROVE SLOWLY TO MVFR SW TO NE ACROSS THE TAF SITES THU AFTN AND
THU NGT...THEN TO VFR LATE THU NGT AND FRI MORN. AFTWRDS...ALL
SITES SHOULD REMAIN VFR FRI AFTN THRU SAT NGT...THEN PERHAPS LOWER
TO MVFR CLGS AND VSBYS IN LGT SN ON SUN ACROSS DOWNEAST SITES.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS
EVENING...WHICH WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED THROUGH TONIGHT.
VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN RAIN AND FOG TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: WVS AND OR WINDS WILL REMAIN IN SCA CRITERIA INTO FRI
MORN...THEN SLOWLY SUBSIDE BLO CRITERIA FRI AFTN AND FRI NGT...
THEN REMAIN BLO SCA SAT AND SUN. KEPT CLOSE TO WW3 WV GUIDANCE FOR
FCST WV HTS THIS UPDATE.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THURSDAY FOR MEZ001>004.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MEZ005-006-010.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...NORCROSS/HASTINGS
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...NORCROSS/VJN
MARINE...NORCROSS/VJN



000
FXUS61 KCAR 171522
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1022 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE TODAY
THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN BEGIN TO EXIT ACROSS THE MARITIMES
THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION LATER FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...
LOW PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY WHILE A
SECONDARY LOW INTENSIFIES ACROSS THE GULF OF A MAINE...WITH A TROF
EXTENDING WEST TO THE WEAKENING LOW. AN AREA OF PRECIPITATION
WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. BASED ON
CRITICAL THICKNESSES AND CURRENT TEMPERATURES EXPECT PRECIPITATION
TO BE MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN MAINE
EXPECT A WINTRY MIX OR RAIN THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MOSTLY A WINTRY
MIX ACROSS EXTREME NORTHERN AREAS. ANY ICE ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO BE A TENTH OF AN
INCH OR LESS WITH UP TO AROUND AN INCH OF SNOW ACCUMULATION. THE
INTENSIFYING LOW ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE WILL BEGIN TO DRAW
COLDER AIR BACK ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST LATER THIS
AFTERNOON WHICH WILL ALLOW PRECIPITATION TO TREND BACK
INCREASINGLY TO SNOW LATER THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE NOT MADE ANY
CHANGES TO THE WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES WITH THIS UPDATE. HAVE
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADJUST FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS ALONG WITH
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION TYPES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE RAIN/FROZEN PRECIP LINE WILL MAKE IT TO ABOUT PRESQUE ISLE-
PATTEN-KOKADJO BY THIS AFTERNOON. NORTH OF THIS LINE, THE WINTRY
MIX WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS. COLDER AIR, BOTH AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT, WILL QUICKLY MOVE IN TONIGHT AS THE LOW SHIFTS
INTO NOVA SCOTIA. AS SUCH, THE PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE OVER TO
ALL SNOW, STARTING FIRST IN THE WESTERN SAINT JOHN AND ALLAGASH
VALLEYS AND THEN SLIDING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THIS IS WHEN THE MOST ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL OCCUR, ESPECIALLY
OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THE BEST FORCING AND
THEREFORE THE HIGHEST TOTAL QPF LOOKS TO SET UP A BIT FURTHER
SOUTH THAN WHAT HAD BEEN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED, SO THE HEAVIEST
SNOW AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN SHIFTED A BIT SOUTH AS WELL. STILL, 6-10
INCHES OF SNOW AND SLEET IS LIKELY OVER NORTHERN MAINE, WITH THE
CENTRAL HIGHLANDS TO GET 3 TO 6 INCHES. SOUTHERN AND DOWNEAST
LOCALES WILL MOSTLY SEE 2 INCHES OR LESS. ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL
BE GREATEST ACROSS THE NORTH AS WELL, WITH UP TO A TENTH OF AN
INCH POSSIBLE.
&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL ACROSS MSLY NRN AND ERN PTNS OF THE FA WILL
WIND DOWN TO SN SHWRS BY THU AFTN...END ACROSS THE SRN HLF OF THE
FA THU NGT AND THEN END ACROSS THE N FRI MORN. OTHERWISE...BRISK
AND COOL CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE PRES GRAD ON THE WEST
SIDE OF THE LOW PRES. BOTH LOW TEMPS THU AND HIGHS FRI WILL BE
RELATIVELY MILD...SINCE THE AIR MASS BEHIND THE LOW IS NOT ARCTIC
IN CHARACTER. MOST MODELS INDICATE SIG LLVL DRYING MOVING INTO THE
THE FA FRI NGT FROM QB PROV WITH THE APCH OF SFC HI PRES FROM
CNTRL CAN... SO WE WILL GO WITH CLRG THIS PD. IF THIS DRYING IS IN
ERROR...SKIES WILL REMAIN CLDY THRU SAT...WITH ANOTHER STRONG
SUBSIDENCE INVSN FORMING BY SAT MORN PREVENTING ANY LLVL MOISTURE
FROM LOFTING ABV 925 MB. BASED ON A FCST OF CLRG AND DIMINISHING
WINDS LATE...WE WILL GO WITH SOME MODEST VLY RADIATIONAL COOLING
OVRNGT LOWS FOR ERLY SAT MORN.
&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ASSUMING THE LLVLS OF THE ATMOSPHERE DRY OUT FRI NGT...SAT SHOULD
BE MSLY SUNNY WITH LGT WINDS AS SFC HI PRES CROSSES THE REGION.
SAT NGT SHOULD BE FAIR...BUT WITH WINDS JUST ABV THE SFC TURNING
TO THE S BEHIND HIGH PRES DEPARTING VIA THE CAN MARITIMES...SOME
ST IS LIKELY TO ADVC NWRD INTO THE REGION FROM THE GULF OF ME...
SPCLY LATE AT NGT.

OTHERWISE...THE 00Z DTMNSTC GFS IS CONSIDERABLY DRIER THAN THE
CORRESPONDING 00Z ECMWF FOR SUN THRU MON...WITH THE GFS MUCH
WEAKER WITH S/WVS MOVING TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE MIDWEST FOR
BOTH LATE SUN AND AGAIN LATE SUN NGT THRU MON. TAKING A BLEND
BETWEEN BOTH MODELS RESULTS IN A FAIRLY LENGTHY PD OF CHC SN
POPS ACROSS CNTRL AND DOWNEAST AREAS FROM LATE SUN INTO MON NGT
WITH A CHC OF RN DURG DAY PDS ALG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. ACROSS THE
N...POPS MSLY REMAIN IN THE SLIGHT CHC CATEGORY.

GIVEN THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE LONG RANGE MODELS REGARDING THE
AMPLITUDE...PLACEMENT AND POTENTIAL IMPACT OF S/WVS FROM THE
MIDWEST...FCST CONFIDENCE IS CONSIDERED TO BE LOWER THAN AVG FOR
THIS PTN OF THE LONG RANGE. REGARDLESS OF THE OUTCOME MOST MODELS
AGREE THAT THE REGION SHOULD EXPERIENCE A BREAK ON TUE BEFORE A
POTENTIALLY MORE SIGNIFICANT LOW FROM THE MIDWEST APCHS THE REGION
ON WED. TEMPS IN THE LONG RANGE WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY MILD FOR
THIS TM OF SEASON...WITH NO ARCTIC AIR XPCTD.
&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: GENERALLY EXPECT IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. A WINTRY MIX IS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH RAIN ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST
AREAS. PRECIPITATION WILL TRANSITION BACK TO SNOW...FROM NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST...ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: IFR CONDITIONS WITH CLGS AND VSBYS IN SN WILL
IMPROVE SLOWLY TO MVFR SW TO NE ACROSS THE TAF SITES THU AFTN AND
THU NGT...THEN TO VFR LATE THU NGT AND FRI MORN. AFTWRDS...ALL
SITES SHOULD REMAIN VFR FRI AFTN THRU SAT NGT...THEN PERHAPS LOWER
TO MVFR CLGS AND VSBYS IN LGT SN ON SUN ACROSS DOWNEAST SITES.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS
EVENING...WHICH WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED THROUGH TONIGHT.
VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN RAIN AND FOG TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: WVS AND OR WINDS WILL REMAIN IN SCA CRITERIA INTO FRI
MORN...THEN SLOWLY SUBSIDE BLO CRITERIA FRI AFTN AND FRI NGT...
THEN REMAIN BLO SCA SAT AND SUN. KEPT CLOSE TO WW3 WV GUIDANCE FOR
FCST WV HTS THIS UPDATE.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THURSDAY FOR MEZ001>004.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MEZ005-006-010.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...NORCROSS/HASTINGS
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...NORCROSS/VJN
MARINE...NORCROSS/VJN




000
FXUS61 KGYX 171459 CCA
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
959 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF OF MAINE TODAY
AND START TO INTENSIFY THIS AFTERNOON...SPREADING RAIN AND SNOW
OVER THE REGION. BY THURSDAY MORNING THE LOW WILL BE OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND IT.
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A WEAK COASTAL STORM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
THAT MAY SPREAD SOME LIGHT SNOW INTO THE REGION. A MUCH STRONGER
STORM MAY AFFECT THE REGION MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...HAVE INPUT LATEST OBS INTO THE FORECAST GRIDS...TRENDING
TOWARDS HI-RES MESOSCALE GUIDANCE FOR AFTERNOON TEMPS. IN GENERAL
THIS LEAVES MUCH OF THE AREA AOA FREEZING. FOR THIS REASON I WILL
DROP THE FZRA ADVISORY FOR THE NRN ZONES. WINTER WX ADVISORY
REMAINS IN PLACE MAINLY FOR A RASN MIX TURNING TO SNWFL LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. ATTM SN LEVELS ARE BETWEEN 3 AND 4 KFT...CONFIRMED VIA
DUAL-POL DATA AND VERTICALLY POINTED PLYMOUTH STATE RADAR. THIS
MATCHES KMWN OBSERVATIONS OF MODERATE SNWFL...BUT RNFL AT OTHER
REPORTING STATIONS. RADAR ALSO EXHIBITS A GOOD UPSLOPE
SIGNAL...WITH HIGHER DBZ VALUES ADJACENT TO TERRAIN. HAVE TRIED TO
PUT THIS IN THE QPF GRIDS USING MODELED MID LEVEL WINDS AS
FORCING. THIS WILL ALSO ASSIST IN SOME DYNAMIC COOLING AS AIR
RISES...WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO A FASTER CHANGEOVER BACK TO SNWFL IN
THE MTNS AS UPPER LOW STRENGTHENS AND TEMPS BEGIN COOLING ALOFT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LIGHT OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION ONGOING
THIS MORNING AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO THE AREA. WARM AIR ALOFT
MOVING OVER AREAS OF FREEZING AIR AT THE SURFACE HAS RESULTED IN
PATCHY FREEZING RAIN. OTHER LOCATIONS REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING. THIS
TREND WILL CONTINUE WITH A MIX OF PRECIPITATION EARLY THIS MORNING
ACROSS THESE AREAS BEFORE ALL BUT THE FAR NORTHERN AREAS CHANGE
OVER TO RAIN BY EARLY AFTERNOON. NORTHERN NH AS WELL AS NORTHERN
MAINE AND THE FOOTHILLS REMAIN UNDER FREEZING RAIN AND WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORIES THROUGHOUT THE MORNING.

LOW PRESSURE FORMS ALONG THE COAST TODAY...SETTING UP A BAROCLINIC
ZONE NEAR THE LAND/SEA INTERFACE. EXPECT UPPER 30S AND 40S
AREAWIDE TODAY WITH THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES JUST SOUTH OF THIS
BOUNDARY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THE COASTAL SURFACE LOW UNDERGOES RAPID DEEPENING... MOVING NE
AND DRAWING COLD AIR INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY. STRONG UPPER LEVEL CANON BALL LOW PRESSURE CLOSING OFF
OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL PROVIDE PLENTY OF LIFT AND DYNAMICS
FOR A HEAVY SNOWFALL AS IT EXITS THE AREA. IN FACT...NORTHERN
OXFORD...NORTHERN FRANKLIN AND CENTRAL SOMERSET REMAIN IN AN
ADVISORY THROUGH LATE VERY LATE TONIGHT AS THE DOMINANT P TYPE
CHANGES TO SNOW. THE POSSIBILITY OF STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS AT OR
ABOVE HALF A FOOT IS ESPECIALLY LIKELY THE FARTHER NE YOU GO.
SOMERSET COUNTY WILL LIKELY GET THESE AMOUNTS BUT WOULD NEED MORE
THAN 9" IN 24 HRS TO WARRANT A WARNING...AND CONFIDENCE WAS NOT
HIGH ENOUGH IN THIS SCENARIO.

RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TAPER OFF TOMORROW FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY. TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE
LESS THAN 2" SOUTH OF THE MOUNTAINS AS THE SNOW MIXES WITH RAIN AT
TIMES. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH THE 40S ALONG THE COAST AND
SOUTH WITH LOWER TO MID 30S NORTH AND EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
START OFF THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES AND CONTINUING TO PULL OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE AND FAIR WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING. MODELS THEN DIVERGE AFTER SUNDAY. THE GFS AND GEM SHOW A
WEAK COASTAL LOW FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE 00Z GFS
NOW DEVELOPS THE LOW SOUTH AND EAST OF NOVA SCOTIA...PUTTING IT
TOO FAR OUT TO HAVE REALLY ANY IMPACT...BUT IT DOES HAVE AN
INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING BACK TO MAINE THAT MAY BRING SOME LIGHT
SNOW TO THE AREA. THE GEFS MEAN SHOWS A SIMILAR SOLUTION AS THE
OPERATIONAL GFS WITH ONLY SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW. THE GEM DEVELOPS
THE LOW IN A SIMILAR LOCATION AS THE GFS...YET ITS A BIT FURTHER
EAST AND A LITTLE DEEPER. THE GEM ALSO SHOWS THE INVERTED TROF
REACHING BACK TO MAINE...BUT IT IS MORE AMPLIFIED THAN THE GFS.
DEPENDING ON THE AXIS OF THIS TROF...SOME AREAS WOULD SEE A
PLOWABLE SNOWFALL.

THE 00Z EURO COMPLETELY LOST THE SYSTEM AND INSTEAD DEVELOPS A
COASTAL LOW SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND MONDAY NIGHT AND TRACKS IT INTO
THE GULF OF MAINE BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. AT THIS TIME WITH THE
UNCERTAINTY...I WENT WITH JUST CHANCE POP FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
AND SLIGHT CHANCE FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH STILL VERY
LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS FORECAST.

FINALLY THE EURO AND GFS ARE STILL SHOWING A LARGE STORM FOR
CHRISTMAS EVE AND/OR CHRISTMAS DAY...HOWEVER WHERE IT WILL BE AND
TRACK TO IS STILL ANYONES GUESS. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
POTENTIAL OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THERE IS ALREADY A LOT OF
RUN TO RUN DISCONTINUITY COMING WITH THE LOCATION OF THE LOW AND
THIS FAR OUT THAT IS EXPECTED...AS BOTH MODELS JUST WENT FROM A
COASTAL LOW WITH THE 12Z RUNS TO A WARM CUTTER WITH THE 00Z RUNS.
SO ALL WE CAN DO AT THIS TIME IS SEE HOW IT EVOLVES AS WE HEAD
INTO NEXT WEEK...AS THE ENERGY TO DEVELOP THIS STORM WILL NOT EVEN
BE SAMPLED WITH REAL DATA FOR SEVERAL DAYS YET.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM...DETERIORATION TO IFR AND LIFR ALREADY OCCURRING IN
DRIZZLE...RAIN...SNOW...AND FOG. SLIGHT CHC FOR SOME FZRA AT KLEB
AND KHIE. THE IFR/LIFR PERSISTS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. SOME
IMPROVEMENT TO CEILINGS TO IFR THIS AFTERNOON BUT PRECIPITATION
EVENT CONTINUES AND WILL KEEP CONDITIONS FROM BECOMING MVFR.
EXPECT WORSENING CONDITIONS IN WIDESPREAD SNOW AS TEMPERATURES
DROP AT NIGHT.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS MOST AREAS
WITH POSSIBLE MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS IN THE MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT
THURSDAY. SHOULD BE MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY
MORNING AND THEN THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOWER CONDITIONS DUE
TO A WEAK COASTAL LOW THAT COULD PROVIDE LIGHT SNOW OR WINTRY MIX
SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY BUT SHOULD BE
A QUIET PERIOD TONIGHT BEFORE WIND GUSTS PICKUP AGAIN TOMORROW
MORNING. WHETHER THIS WILL BE TAKEN ADVANTAGE OF OR THE ENTIRE
TIME FRAME BRIDGED WITH AN ADVISORY HAS BEEN LEFT TO THE
SUBSEQUENT SHIFT.

LONG TERM...SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEPARTS TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE WATERS.
CONDITIONS WILL THEN SUBSIDE. SCA COULD BE POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY DEPENDING WHERE A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE TRACK AND
INTENSITY...HOWEVER AT THE MOMENT IT APPEARS IT WILL NOT INTENSIFY
UNTIL IT GETS UP INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MEZ008-009-
     014.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ150-
     152-154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LEGRO




000
FXUS61 KGYX 171459 AAA
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
959 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF OF MAINE TODAY
AND START TO INTENSIFY THIS AFTERNOON...SPREADING RAIN AND SNOW
OVER THE REGION. BY THURSDAY MORNING THE LOW WILL BE OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND IT.
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A WEAK COASTAL STORM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
THAT MAY SPREAD SOME LIGHT SNOW INTO THE REGION. A MUCH STRONGER
STORM MAY AFFECT THE REGION MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...HAVE INPUT LATEST OBS INTO THE FORECAST GRIDS...TRENDING
TOWARDS HI-RES MESOSCALE GUIDANCE FOR AFTERNOON TEMPS. IN GENERAL
THIS LEAVES MUCH OF THE AREA AOA FREEZING. FOR THIS REASON I WILL
DROP THE FZRA ADVISORY FOR THE NRN ZONES. WINTER WX ADVISORY
REMAINS IN PLACE MAINLY FOR A RASN MIX TURNING TO SNWFL LATER THIS
AFTERNOON.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LIGHT OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION ONGOING
THIS MORNING AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO THE AREA. WARM AIR ALOFT
MOVING OVER AREAS OF FREEZING AIR AT THE SURFACE HAS RESULTED IN
PATCHY FREEZING RAIN. OTHER LOCATIONS REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING. THIS
TREND WILL CONTINUE WITH A MIX OF PRECIPITATION EARLY THIS MORNING
ACROSS THESE AREAS BEFORE ALL BUT THE FAR NORTHERN AREAS CHANGE
OVER TO RAIN BY EARLY AFTERNOON. NORTHERN NH AS WELL AS NORTHERN
MAINE AND THE FOOTHILLS REMAIN UNDER FREEZING RAIN AND WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORIES THROUGHOUT THE MORNING.

LOW PRESSURE FORMS ALONG THE COAST TODAY...SETTING UP A BAROCLINIC
ZONE NEAR THE LAND/SEA INTERFACE. EXPECT UPPER 30S AND 40S
AREAWIDE TODAY WITH THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES JUST SOUTH OF THIS
BOUNDARY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THE COASTAL SURFACE LOW UNDERGOES RAPID DEEPENING... MOVING NE
AND DRAWING COLD AIR INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY. STRONG UPPER LEVEL CANON BALL LOW PRESSURE CLOSING OFF
OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL PROVIDE PLENTY OF LIFT AND DYNAMICS
FOR A HEAVY SNOWFALL AS IT EXITS THE AREA. IN FACT...NORTHERN
OXFORD...NORTHERN FRANKLIN AND CENTRAL SOMERSET REMAIN IN AN
ADVISORY THROUGH LATE VERY LATE TONIGHT AS THE DOMINANT P TYPE
CHANGES TO SNOW. THE POSSIBILITY OF STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS AT OR
ABOVE HALF A FOOT IS ESPECIALLY LIKELY THE FARTHER NE YOU GO.
SOMERSET COUNTY WILL LIKELY GET THESE AMOUNTS BUT WOULD NEED MORE
THAN 9" IN 24 HRS TO WARRANT A WARNING...AND CONFIDENCE WAS NOT
HIGH ENOUGH IN THIS SCENARIO.

RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TAPER OFF TOMORROW FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY. TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE
LESS THAN 2" SOUTH OF THE MOUNTAINS AS THE SNOW MIXES WITH RAIN AT
TIMES. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH THE 40S ALONG THE COAST AND
SOUTH WITH LOWER TO MID 30S NORTH AND EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
START OFF THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES AND CONTINUING TO PULL OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE AND FAIR WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING. MODELS THEN DIVERGE AFTER SUNDAY. THE GFS AND GEM SHOW A
WEAK COASTAL LOW FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE 00Z GFS
NOW DEVELOPS THE LOW SOUTH AND EAST OF NOVA SCOTIA...PUTTING IT
TOO FAR OUT TO HAVE REALLY ANY IMPACT...BUT IT DOES HAVE AN
INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING BACK TO MAINE THAT MAY BRING SOME LIGHT
SNOW TO THE AREA. THE GEFS MEAN SHOWS A SIMILAR SOLUTION AS THE
OPERATIONAL GFS WITH ONLY SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW. THE GEM DEVELOPS
THE LOW IN A SIMILAR LOCATION AS THE GFS...YET ITS A BIT FURTHER
EAST AND A LITTLE DEEPER. THE GEM ALSO SHOWS THE INVERTED TROF
REACHING BACK TO MAINE...BUT IT IS MORE AMPLIFIED THAN THE GFS.
DEPENDING ON THE AXIS OF THIS TROF...SOME AREAS WOULD SEE A
PLOWABLE SNOWFALL.

THE 00Z EURO COMPLETELY LOST THE SYSTEM AND INSTEAD DEVELOPS A
COASTAL LOW SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND MONDAY NIGHT AND TRACKS IT INTO
THE GULF OF MAINE BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. AT THIS TIME WITH THE
UNCERTAINTY...I WENT WITH JUST CHANCE POP FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
AND SLIGHT CHANCE FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH STILL VERY
LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS FORECAST.

FINALLY THE EURO AND GFS ARE STILL SHOWING A LARGE STORM FOR
CHRISTMAS EVE AND/OR CHRISTMAS DAY...HOWEVER WHERE IT WILL BE AND
TRACK TO IS STILL ANYONES GUESS. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
POTENTIAL OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THERE IS ALREADY A LOT OF
RUN TO RUN DISCONTINUITY COMING WITH THE LOCATION OF THE LOW AND
THIS FAR OUT THAT IS EXPECTED...AS BOTH MODELS JUST WENT FROM A
COASTAL LOW WITH THE 12Z RUNS TO A WARM CUTTER WITH THE 00Z RUNS.
SO ALL WE CAN DO AT THIS TIME IS SEE HOW IT EVOLVES AS WE HEAD
INTO NEXT WEEK...AS THE ENERGY TO DEVELOP THIS STORM WILL NOT EVEN
BE SAMPLED WITH REAL DATA FOR SEVERAL DAYS YET.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM...DETERIORATION TO IFR AND LIFR ALREADY OCCURRING IN
DRIZZLE...RAIN...SNOW...AND FOG. SLIGHT CHC FOR SOME FZRA AT KLEB
AND KHIE. THE IFR/LIFR PERSISTS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. SOME
IMPROVEMENT TO CEILINGS TO IFR THIS AFTERNOON BUT PRECIPITATION
EVENT CONTINUES AND WILL KEEP CONDITIONS FROM BECOMING MVFR.
EXPECT WORSENING CONDITIONS IN WIDESPREAD SNOW AS TEMPERATURES
DROP AT NIGHT.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS MOST AREAS
WITH POSSIBLE MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS IN THE MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT
THURSDAY. SHOULD BE MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY
MORNING AND THEN THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOWER CONDITIONS DUE
TO A WEAK COASTAL LOW THAT COULD PROVIDE LIGHT SNOW OR WINTRY MIX
SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY BUT SHOULD BE
A QUIET PERIOD TONIGHT BEFORE WIND GUSTS PICKUP AGAIN TOMORROW
MORNING. WHETHER THIS WILL BE TAKEN ADVANTAGE OF OR THE ENTIRE
TIME FRAME BRIDGED WITH AN ADVISORY HAS BEEN LEFT TO THE
SUBSEQUENT SHIFT.

LONG TERM...SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEPARTS TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE WATERS.
CONDITIONS WILL THEN SUBSIDE. SCA COULD BE POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY DEPENDING WHERE A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE TRACK AND
INTENSITY...HOWEVER AT THE MOMENT IT APPEARS IT WILL NOT INTENSIFY
UNTIL IT GETS UP INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MEZ008-009-
     014.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ150-
     152-154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LEGRO



000
FXUS61 KGYX 171459 CCA
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
959 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF OF MAINE TODAY
AND START TO INTENSIFY THIS AFTERNOON...SPREADING RAIN AND SNOW
OVER THE REGION. BY THURSDAY MORNING THE LOW WILL BE OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND IT.
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A WEAK COASTAL STORM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
THAT MAY SPREAD SOME LIGHT SNOW INTO THE REGION. A MUCH STRONGER
STORM MAY AFFECT THE REGION MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...HAVE INPUT LATEST OBS INTO THE FORECAST GRIDS...TRENDING
TOWARDS HI-RES MESOSCALE GUIDANCE FOR AFTERNOON TEMPS. IN GENERAL
THIS LEAVES MUCH OF THE AREA AOA FREEZING. FOR THIS REASON I WILL
DROP THE FZRA ADVISORY FOR THE NRN ZONES. WINTER WX ADVISORY
REMAINS IN PLACE MAINLY FOR A RASN MIX TURNING TO SNWFL LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. ATTM SN LEVELS ARE BETWEEN 3 AND 4 KFT...CONFIRMED VIA
DUAL-POL DATA AND VERTICALLY POINTED PLYMOUTH STATE RADAR. THIS
MATCHES KMWN OBSERVATIONS OF MODERATE SNWFL...BUT RNFL AT OTHER
REPORTING STATIONS. RADAR ALSO EXHIBITS A GOOD UPSLOPE
SIGNAL...WITH HIGHER DBZ VALUES ADJACENT TO TERRAIN. HAVE TRIED TO
PUT THIS IN THE QPF GRIDS USING MODELED MID LEVEL WINDS AS
FORCING. THIS WILL ALSO ASSIST IN SOME DYNAMIC COOLING AS AIR
RISES...WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO A FASTER CHANGEOVER BACK TO SNWFL IN
THE MTNS AS UPPER LOW STRENGTHENS AND TEMPS BEGIN COOLING ALOFT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LIGHT OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION ONGOING
THIS MORNING AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO THE AREA. WARM AIR ALOFT
MOVING OVER AREAS OF FREEZING AIR AT THE SURFACE HAS RESULTED IN
PATCHY FREEZING RAIN. OTHER LOCATIONS REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING. THIS
TREND WILL CONTINUE WITH A MIX OF PRECIPITATION EARLY THIS MORNING
ACROSS THESE AREAS BEFORE ALL BUT THE FAR NORTHERN AREAS CHANGE
OVER TO RAIN BY EARLY AFTERNOON. NORTHERN NH AS WELL AS NORTHERN
MAINE AND THE FOOTHILLS REMAIN UNDER FREEZING RAIN AND WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORIES THROUGHOUT THE MORNING.

LOW PRESSURE FORMS ALONG THE COAST TODAY...SETTING UP A BAROCLINIC
ZONE NEAR THE LAND/SEA INTERFACE. EXPECT UPPER 30S AND 40S
AREAWIDE TODAY WITH THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES JUST SOUTH OF THIS
BOUNDARY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THE COASTAL SURFACE LOW UNDERGOES RAPID DEEPENING... MOVING NE
AND DRAWING COLD AIR INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY. STRONG UPPER LEVEL CANON BALL LOW PRESSURE CLOSING OFF
OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL PROVIDE PLENTY OF LIFT AND DYNAMICS
FOR A HEAVY SNOWFALL AS IT EXITS THE AREA. IN FACT...NORTHERN
OXFORD...NORTHERN FRANKLIN AND CENTRAL SOMERSET REMAIN IN AN
ADVISORY THROUGH LATE VERY LATE TONIGHT AS THE DOMINANT P TYPE
CHANGES TO SNOW. THE POSSIBILITY OF STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS AT OR
ABOVE HALF A FOOT IS ESPECIALLY LIKELY THE FARTHER NE YOU GO.
SOMERSET COUNTY WILL LIKELY GET THESE AMOUNTS BUT WOULD NEED MORE
THAN 9" IN 24 HRS TO WARRANT A WARNING...AND CONFIDENCE WAS NOT
HIGH ENOUGH IN THIS SCENARIO.

RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TAPER OFF TOMORROW FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY. TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE
LESS THAN 2" SOUTH OF THE MOUNTAINS AS THE SNOW MIXES WITH RAIN AT
TIMES. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH THE 40S ALONG THE COAST AND
SOUTH WITH LOWER TO MID 30S NORTH AND EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
START OFF THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES AND CONTINUING TO PULL OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE AND FAIR WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING. MODELS THEN DIVERGE AFTER SUNDAY. THE GFS AND GEM SHOW A
WEAK COASTAL LOW FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE 00Z GFS
NOW DEVELOPS THE LOW SOUTH AND EAST OF NOVA SCOTIA...PUTTING IT
TOO FAR OUT TO HAVE REALLY ANY IMPACT...BUT IT DOES HAVE AN
INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING BACK TO MAINE THAT MAY BRING SOME LIGHT
SNOW TO THE AREA. THE GEFS MEAN SHOWS A SIMILAR SOLUTION AS THE
OPERATIONAL GFS WITH ONLY SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW. THE GEM DEVELOPS
THE LOW IN A SIMILAR LOCATION AS THE GFS...YET ITS A BIT FURTHER
EAST AND A LITTLE DEEPER. THE GEM ALSO SHOWS THE INVERTED TROF
REACHING BACK TO MAINE...BUT IT IS MORE AMPLIFIED THAN THE GFS.
DEPENDING ON THE AXIS OF THIS TROF...SOME AREAS WOULD SEE A
PLOWABLE SNOWFALL.

THE 00Z EURO COMPLETELY LOST THE SYSTEM AND INSTEAD DEVELOPS A
COASTAL LOW SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND MONDAY NIGHT AND TRACKS IT INTO
THE GULF OF MAINE BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. AT THIS TIME WITH THE
UNCERTAINTY...I WENT WITH JUST CHANCE POP FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
AND SLIGHT CHANCE FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH STILL VERY
LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS FORECAST.

FINALLY THE EURO AND GFS ARE STILL SHOWING A LARGE STORM FOR
CHRISTMAS EVE AND/OR CHRISTMAS DAY...HOWEVER WHERE IT WILL BE AND
TRACK TO IS STILL ANYONES GUESS. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
POTENTIAL OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THERE IS ALREADY A LOT OF
RUN TO RUN DISCONTINUITY COMING WITH THE LOCATION OF THE LOW AND
THIS FAR OUT THAT IS EXPECTED...AS BOTH MODELS JUST WENT FROM A
COASTAL LOW WITH THE 12Z RUNS TO A WARM CUTTER WITH THE 00Z RUNS.
SO ALL WE CAN DO AT THIS TIME IS SEE HOW IT EVOLVES AS WE HEAD
INTO NEXT WEEK...AS THE ENERGY TO DEVELOP THIS STORM WILL NOT EVEN
BE SAMPLED WITH REAL DATA FOR SEVERAL DAYS YET.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM...DETERIORATION TO IFR AND LIFR ALREADY OCCURRING IN
DRIZZLE...RAIN...SNOW...AND FOG. SLIGHT CHC FOR SOME FZRA AT KLEB
AND KHIE. THE IFR/LIFR PERSISTS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. SOME
IMPROVEMENT TO CEILINGS TO IFR THIS AFTERNOON BUT PRECIPITATION
EVENT CONTINUES AND WILL KEEP CONDITIONS FROM BECOMING MVFR.
EXPECT WORSENING CONDITIONS IN WIDESPREAD SNOW AS TEMPERATURES
DROP AT NIGHT.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS MOST AREAS
WITH POSSIBLE MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS IN THE MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT
THURSDAY. SHOULD BE MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY
MORNING AND THEN THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOWER CONDITIONS DUE
TO A WEAK COASTAL LOW THAT COULD PROVIDE LIGHT SNOW OR WINTRY MIX
SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY BUT SHOULD BE
A QUIET PERIOD TONIGHT BEFORE WIND GUSTS PICKUP AGAIN TOMORROW
MORNING. WHETHER THIS WILL BE TAKEN ADVANTAGE OF OR THE ENTIRE
TIME FRAME BRIDGED WITH AN ADVISORY HAS BEEN LEFT TO THE
SUBSEQUENT SHIFT.

LONG TERM...SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEPARTS TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE WATERS.
CONDITIONS WILL THEN SUBSIDE. SCA COULD BE POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY DEPENDING WHERE A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE TRACK AND
INTENSITY...HOWEVER AT THE MOMENT IT APPEARS IT WILL NOT INTENSIFY
UNTIL IT GETS UP INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MEZ008-009-
     014.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ150-
     152-154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LEGRO



000
FXUS61 KGYX 171459 AAA
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
959 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF OF MAINE TODAY
AND START TO INTENSIFY THIS AFTERNOON...SPREADING RAIN AND SNOW
OVER THE REGION. BY THURSDAY MORNING THE LOW WILL BE OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND IT.
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A WEAK COASTAL STORM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
THAT MAY SPREAD SOME LIGHT SNOW INTO THE REGION. A MUCH STRONGER
STORM MAY AFFECT THE REGION MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...HAVE INPUT LATEST OBS INTO THE FORECAST GRIDS...TRENDING
TOWARDS HI-RES MESOSCALE GUIDANCE FOR AFTERNOON TEMPS. IN GENERAL
THIS LEAVES MUCH OF THE AREA AOA FREEZING. FOR THIS REASON I WILL
DROP THE FZRA ADVISORY FOR THE NRN ZONES. WINTER WX ADVISORY
REMAINS IN PLACE MAINLY FOR A RASN MIX TURNING TO SNWFL LATER THIS
AFTERNOON.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LIGHT OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION ONGOING
THIS MORNING AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO THE AREA. WARM AIR ALOFT
MOVING OVER AREAS OF FREEZING AIR AT THE SURFACE HAS RESULTED IN
PATCHY FREEZING RAIN. OTHER LOCATIONS REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING. THIS
TREND WILL CONTINUE WITH A MIX OF PRECIPITATION EARLY THIS MORNING
ACROSS THESE AREAS BEFORE ALL BUT THE FAR NORTHERN AREAS CHANGE
OVER TO RAIN BY EARLY AFTERNOON. NORTHERN NH AS WELL AS NORTHERN
MAINE AND THE FOOTHILLS REMAIN UNDER FREEZING RAIN AND WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORIES THROUGHOUT THE MORNING.

LOW PRESSURE FORMS ALONG THE COAST TODAY...SETTING UP A BAROCLINIC
ZONE NEAR THE LAND/SEA INTERFACE. EXPECT UPPER 30S AND 40S
AREAWIDE TODAY WITH THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES JUST SOUTH OF THIS
BOUNDARY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THE COASTAL SURFACE LOW UNDERGOES RAPID DEEPENING... MOVING NE
AND DRAWING COLD AIR INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY. STRONG UPPER LEVEL CANON BALL LOW PRESSURE CLOSING OFF
OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL PROVIDE PLENTY OF LIFT AND DYNAMICS
FOR A HEAVY SNOWFALL AS IT EXITS THE AREA. IN FACT...NORTHERN
OXFORD...NORTHERN FRANKLIN AND CENTRAL SOMERSET REMAIN IN AN
ADVISORY THROUGH LATE VERY LATE TONIGHT AS THE DOMINANT P TYPE
CHANGES TO SNOW. THE POSSIBILITY OF STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS AT OR
ABOVE HALF A FOOT IS ESPECIALLY LIKELY THE FARTHER NE YOU GO.
SOMERSET COUNTY WILL LIKELY GET THESE AMOUNTS BUT WOULD NEED MORE
THAN 9" IN 24 HRS TO WARRANT A WARNING...AND CONFIDENCE WAS NOT
HIGH ENOUGH IN THIS SCENARIO.

RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TAPER OFF TOMORROW FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY. TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE
LESS THAN 2" SOUTH OF THE MOUNTAINS AS THE SNOW MIXES WITH RAIN AT
TIMES. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH THE 40S ALONG THE COAST AND
SOUTH WITH LOWER TO MID 30S NORTH AND EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
START OFF THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES AND CONTINUING TO PULL OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE AND FAIR WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING. MODELS THEN DIVERGE AFTER SUNDAY. THE GFS AND GEM SHOW A
WEAK COASTAL LOW FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE 00Z GFS
NOW DEVELOPS THE LOW SOUTH AND EAST OF NOVA SCOTIA...PUTTING IT
TOO FAR OUT TO HAVE REALLY ANY IMPACT...BUT IT DOES HAVE AN
INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING BACK TO MAINE THAT MAY BRING SOME LIGHT
SNOW TO THE AREA. THE GEFS MEAN SHOWS A SIMILAR SOLUTION AS THE
OPERATIONAL GFS WITH ONLY SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW. THE GEM DEVELOPS
THE LOW IN A SIMILAR LOCATION AS THE GFS...YET ITS A BIT FURTHER
EAST AND A LITTLE DEEPER. THE GEM ALSO SHOWS THE INVERTED TROF
REACHING BACK TO MAINE...BUT IT IS MORE AMPLIFIED THAN THE GFS.
DEPENDING ON THE AXIS OF THIS TROF...SOME AREAS WOULD SEE A
PLOWABLE SNOWFALL.

THE 00Z EURO COMPLETELY LOST THE SYSTEM AND INSTEAD DEVELOPS A
COASTAL LOW SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND MONDAY NIGHT AND TRACKS IT INTO
THE GULF OF MAINE BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. AT THIS TIME WITH THE
UNCERTAINTY...I WENT WITH JUST CHANCE POP FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
AND SLIGHT CHANCE FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH STILL VERY
LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS FORECAST.

FINALLY THE EURO AND GFS ARE STILL SHOWING A LARGE STORM FOR
CHRISTMAS EVE AND/OR CHRISTMAS DAY...HOWEVER WHERE IT WILL BE AND
TRACK TO IS STILL ANYONES GUESS. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
POTENTIAL OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THERE IS ALREADY A LOT OF
RUN TO RUN DISCONTINUITY COMING WITH THE LOCATION OF THE LOW AND
THIS FAR OUT THAT IS EXPECTED...AS BOTH MODELS JUST WENT FROM A
COASTAL LOW WITH THE 12Z RUNS TO A WARM CUTTER WITH THE 00Z RUNS.
SO ALL WE CAN DO AT THIS TIME IS SEE HOW IT EVOLVES AS WE HEAD
INTO NEXT WEEK...AS THE ENERGY TO DEVELOP THIS STORM WILL NOT EVEN
BE SAMPLED WITH REAL DATA FOR SEVERAL DAYS YET.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM...DETERIORATION TO IFR AND LIFR ALREADY OCCURRING IN
DRIZZLE...RAIN...SNOW...AND FOG. SLIGHT CHC FOR SOME FZRA AT KLEB
AND KHIE. THE IFR/LIFR PERSISTS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. SOME
IMPROVEMENT TO CEILINGS TO IFR THIS AFTERNOON BUT PRECIPITATION
EVENT CONTINUES AND WILL KEEP CONDITIONS FROM BECOMING MVFR.
EXPECT WORSENING CONDITIONS IN WIDESPREAD SNOW AS TEMPERATURES
DROP AT NIGHT.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS MOST AREAS
WITH POSSIBLE MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS IN THE MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT
THURSDAY. SHOULD BE MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY
MORNING AND THEN THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOWER CONDITIONS DUE
TO A WEAK COASTAL LOW THAT COULD PROVIDE LIGHT SNOW OR WINTRY MIX
SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY BUT SHOULD BE
A QUIET PERIOD TONIGHT BEFORE WIND GUSTS PICKUP AGAIN TOMORROW
MORNING. WHETHER THIS WILL BE TAKEN ADVANTAGE OF OR THE ENTIRE
TIME FRAME BRIDGED WITH AN ADVISORY HAS BEEN LEFT TO THE
SUBSEQUENT SHIFT.

LONG TERM...SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEPARTS TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE WATERS.
CONDITIONS WILL THEN SUBSIDE. SCA COULD BE POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY DEPENDING WHERE A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE TRACK AND
INTENSITY...HOWEVER AT THE MOMENT IT APPEARS IT WILL NOT INTENSIFY
UNTIL IT GETS UP INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MEZ008-009-
     014.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ150-
     152-154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LEGRO




000
FXUS61 KCAR 171055
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
555 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST TODAY...THEN
TRACK ACROSS THE DOWNEAST COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT AND INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE FROM CENTRAL CANADA WILL APPROACH
THE REGION ON FRIDAY...THEN CREST THE REGION ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
550 AM UPDATE...BIGGEST CHANGE WITH THIS UPDATE WAS TO EXTEND THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN SOMERSET AND NORTHERN
PISCATAQUIS COUNTIES UNTIL THURSDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE FREEZING
RAIN WILL LINGER THROUGH THE DAY IN THESE LOCATIONS, ESPECIALLY IN
THE MORE SHELTERED VALLEYS. THEN CHANGING OVER TO SNOW TONIGHT
WITH 4 TO 8 INCHES ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. OTHERWISE, HAVE ADJUSTED
TEMPERATURES TO MATCH CURRENT OBSERVATIONS. CURRENTLY AT THE
FREEZING POINT OR BETTER BASICALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I95. ALSO
MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO REMOVE AND/OR REDUCE THE MENTION OF
FREEZING RAIN IN THE TEXT FORECAST IN THOSE AREAS THAT ARE
CURRENTLY ABOVE FREEZING. NO OTHER CHANGES WERE NEEDED ATTM.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE CHALLENGE FOR THIS PERIOD IS
PRECIPITATION TYPE AND RESULTANT SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS.

LOW PRESSURE HAS DEVELOPED OFF LONG ISLAND THIS MORNING. THIS SYSTEM
WILL TREK NORTHEAST TODAY AND TONIGHT, EVENTUALLY MOVING INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES. ALTHOUGH WE`RE ALREADY SEEING SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION AT THIS HOUR, THE HEAVIEST ACTIVITY
CAN BE SEEN ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS PRECIPITATION WILL
SPREAD INTO OUR FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. ACROSS
SOUTHERN/DOWNEAST MAINE WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY AT OR ABOVE
FREEZING, THE PRECIPITATION WILL START OUT AS RAIN AND REMAIN SO
THROUGH THE DAY. ACROSS THE NORTH, THOUGH, TEMPERATURES ARE BELOW
FREEZING AND EXPECT THE PRECIPITATION WILL START OUT AS A MIX OF
SNOW, SLEET, AND FREEZING RAIN THAT WILL LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY. THE RAIN/FROZEN PRECIP LINE WILL MAKE IT TO ABOUT PRESQUE ISLE-
PATTEN-KOKADJO BY THIS AFTERNOON. NORTH OF THIS LINE, THE WINTRY MIX
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS. COLDER AIR, BOTH AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT, WILL QUICKLY MOVE IN TONIGHT AS THE LOW SHIFTS
INTO NOVA SCOTIA. AS SUCH, THE PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE OVER TO ALL
SNOW, STARTING FIRST IN THE WESTERN SAINT JOHN AND ALLAGASH VALLEYS
AND THEN SLIDING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS IS WHEN
THE MOST ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL OCCUR, ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN
HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THE BEST FORCING AND THEREFORE THE
HIGHEST TOTAL QPF LOOKS TO SET UP A BIT FURTHER SOUTH THAN WHAT HAD
BEEN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED, SO THE HEAVIEST SNOW AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN
SHIFTED A BIT SOUTH AS WELL. STILL, 6-10 INCHES OF SNOW AND SLEET IS
LIKELY OVER NORTHERN MAINE, WITH THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS TO GET 3 TO 6
INCHES. SOUTHERN AND DOWNEAST LOCALES WILL MOSTLY SEE 2 INCHES OR
LESS. ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE GREATEST ACROSS THE NORTH AS WELL,
WITH UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH POSSIBLE. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
REMAINS IN PLACE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL ACROSS MSLY NRN AND ERN PTNS OF THE FA WILL
WIND DOWN TO SN SHWRS BY THU AFTN...END ACROSS THE SRN HLF OF THE
FA THU NGT AND THEN END ACROSS THE N FRI MORN. OTHERWISE...BRISK
AND COOL CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE PRES GRAD ON THE WEST
SIDE OF THE LOW PRES. BOTH LOW TEMPS THU AND HIGHS FRI WILL BE
RELATIVELY MILD...SINCE THE AIR MASS BEHIND THE LOW IS NOT ARCTIC
IN CHARACTER. MOST MODELS INDICATE SIG LLVL DRYING MOVING INTO THE
THE FA FRI NGT FROM QB PROV WITH THE APCH OF SFC HI PRES FROM
CNTRL CAN... SO WE WILL GO WITH CLRG THIS PD. IF THIS DRYING IS IN
ERROR...SKIES WILL REMAIN CLDY THRU SAT...WITH ANOTHER STRONG
SUBSIDENCE INVSN FORMING BY SAT MORN PREVENTING ANY LLVL MOISTURE
FROM LOFTING ABV 925 MB. BASED ON A FCST OF CLRG AND DIMINISHING
WINDS LATE...WE WILL GO WITH SOME MODEST VLY RADIATIONAL COOLING
OVRNGT LOWS FOR ERLY SAT MORN.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ASSUMING THE LLVLS OF THE ATMOSPHERE DRY OUT FRI NGT...SAT SHOULD
BE MSLY SUNNY WITH LGT WINDS AS SFC HI PRES CROSSES THE REGION.
SAT NGT SHOULD BE FAIR...BUT WITH WINDS JUST ABV THE SFC TURNING
TO THE S BEHIND HIGH PRES DEPARTING VIA THE CAN MARITIMES...SOME
ST IS LIKELY TO ADVC NWRD INTO THE REGION FROM THE GULF OF ME...
SPCLY LATE AT NGT.

OTHERWISE...THE 00Z DTMNSTC GFS IS CONSIDERABLY DRIER THAN THE
CORRESPONDING 00Z ECMWF FOR SUN THRU MON...WITH THE GFS MUCH
WEAKER WITH S/WVS MOVING TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE MIDWEST FOR
BOTH LATE SUN AND AGAIN LATE SUN NGT THRU MON. TAKING A BLEND
BETWEEN BOTH MODELS RESULTS IN A FAIRLY LENGTHY PD OF CHC SN
POPS ACROSS CNTRL AND DOWNEAST AREAS FROM LATE SUN INTO MON NGT
WITH A CHC OF RN DURG DAY PDS ALG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. ACROSS THE
N...POPS MSLY REMAIN IN THE SLIGHT CHC CATEGORY.

GIVEN THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE LONG RANGE MODELS REGARDING THE
AMPLITUDE...PLACEMENT AND POTENTIAL IMPACT OF S/WVS FROM THE
MIDWEST...FCST CONFIDENCE IS CONSIDERED TO BE LOWER THAN AVG FOR
THIS PTN OF THE LONG RANGE. REGARDLESS OF THE OUTCOME MOST MODELS
AGREE THAT THE REGION SHOULD EXPERIENCE A BREAK ON TUE BEFORE A
POTENTIALLY MORE SIGNIFICANT LOW FROM THE MIDWEST APCHS THE REGION
ON WED. TEMPS IN THE LONG RANGE WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY MILD FOR
THIS TM OF SEASON...WITH NO ARCTIC AIR XPCTD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH
THE PERIOD DUE TO LOW CEILINGS AND RESTRICTED VISIBILITY IN
PRECIPITATION AND FOG. THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE RAIN AT KBHB AND
KBGR UNTIL MIXING WITH SNOW LATE TONIGHT. THE NORTHERN TERMINALS
WILL SEE A MIX OF SNOW, SLEET, AND FREEZING RAIN THROUGH THE DAY,
WITH KHUL AND PERHAPS KPQI CHANGING TO RAIN THIS AFTERNOON. THESE
SITES WILL THEN TRANSITION OVER TO SNOW OVERNIGHT.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: IFR CONDITIONS WITH CLGS AND VSBYS IN SN WILL
IMPROVE SLOWLY TO MVFR SW TO NE ACROSS THE TAF SITES THU AFTN AND
THU NGT...THEN TO VFR LATE THU NGT AND FRI MORN. AFTWRDS...ALL
SITES SHOULD REMAIN VFR FRI AFTN THRU SAT NGT...THEN PERHAPS LOWER
TO MVFR CLGS AND VSBYS IN LGT SN ON SUN ACROSS DOWNEAST SITES.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS PLACE FOR TODAY.
WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS OF 30 KT AND SEAS OF 4 TO 6 FEET
CAN BE EXPECTED. CONDITIONS WILL EXPERIENCE A LULL OVERNIGHT AS
THE LOW MOVES OVER THE WATERS, BUT WINDS AND WAVES WILL LIKELY
BEGIN TO BUILD AGAIN TOWARD MORNING.

SHORT TERM: WVS AND OR WINDS WILL REMAIN IN SCA CRITERIA INTO FRI
MORN...THEN SLOWLY SUBSIDE BLO CRITERIA FRI AFTN AND FRI NGT...
THEN REMAIN BLO SCA SAT AND SUN. KEPT CLOSE TO WW3 WV GUIDANCE FOR
FCST WV HTS THIS UPDATE.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THURSDAY FOR MEZ001>004.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MEZ005-006-010.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HASTINGS
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...HASTINGS/VJN
MARINE...HASTINGS/VJN




000
FXUS61 KCAR 171055
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
555 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST TODAY...THEN
TRACK ACROSS THE DOWNEAST COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT AND INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE FROM CENTRAL CANADA WILL APPROACH
THE REGION ON FRIDAY...THEN CREST THE REGION ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
550 AM UPDATE...BIGGEST CHANGE WITH THIS UPDATE WAS TO EXTEND THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN SOMERSET AND NORTHERN
PISCATAQUIS COUNTIES UNTIL THURSDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE FREEZING
RAIN WILL LINGER THROUGH THE DAY IN THESE LOCATIONS, ESPECIALLY IN
THE MORE SHELTERED VALLEYS. THEN CHANGING OVER TO SNOW TONIGHT
WITH 4 TO 8 INCHES ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. OTHERWISE, HAVE ADJUSTED
TEMPERATURES TO MATCH CURRENT OBSERVATIONS. CURRENTLY AT THE
FREEZING POINT OR BETTER BASICALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I95. ALSO
MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO REMOVE AND/OR REDUCE THE MENTION OF
FREEZING RAIN IN THE TEXT FORECAST IN THOSE AREAS THAT ARE
CURRENTLY ABOVE FREEZING. NO OTHER CHANGES WERE NEEDED ATTM.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE CHALLENGE FOR THIS PERIOD IS
PRECIPITATION TYPE AND RESULTANT SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS.

LOW PRESSURE HAS DEVELOPED OFF LONG ISLAND THIS MORNING. THIS SYSTEM
WILL TREK NORTHEAST TODAY AND TONIGHT, EVENTUALLY MOVING INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES. ALTHOUGH WE`RE ALREADY SEEING SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION AT THIS HOUR, THE HEAVIEST ACTIVITY
CAN BE SEEN ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS PRECIPITATION WILL
SPREAD INTO OUR FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. ACROSS
SOUTHERN/DOWNEAST MAINE WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY AT OR ABOVE
FREEZING, THE PRECIPITATION WILL START OUT AS RAIN AND REMAIN SO
THROUGH THE DAY. ACROSS THE NORTH, THOUGH, TEMPERATURES ARE BELOW
FREEZING AND EXPECT THE PRECIPITATION WILL START OUT AS A MIX OF
SNOW, SLEET, AND FREEZING RAIN THAT WILL LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY. THE RAIN/FROZEN PRECIP LINE WILL MAKE IT TO ABOUT PRESQUE ISLE-
PATTEN-KOKADJO BY THIS AFTERNOON. NORTH OF THIS LINE, THE WINTRY MIX
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS. COLDER AIR, BOTH AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT, WILL QUICKLY MOVE IN TONIGHT AS THE LOW SHIFTS
INTO NOVA SCOTIA. AS SUCH, THE PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE OVER TO ALL
SNOW, STARTING FIRST IN THE WESTERN SAINT JOHN AND ALLAGASH VALLEYS
AND THEN SLIDING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS IS WHEN
THE MOST ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL OCCUR, ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN
HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THE BEST FORCING AND THEREFORE THE
HIGHEST TOTAL QPF LOOKS TO SET UP A BIT FURTHER SOUTH THAN WHAT HAD
BEEN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED, SO THE HEAVIEST SNOW AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN
SHIFTED A BIT SOUTH AS WELL. STILL, 6-10 INCHES OF SNOW AND SLEET IS
LIKELY OVER NORTHERN MAINE, WITH THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS TO GET 3 TO 6
INCHES. SOUTHERN AND DOWNEAST LOCALES WILL MOSTLY SEE 2 INCHES OR
LESS. ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE GREATEST ACROSS THE NORTH AS WELL,
WITH UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH POSSIBLE. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
REMAINS IN PLACE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL ACROSS MSLY NRN AND ERN PTNS OF THE FA WILL
WIND DOWN TO SN SHWRS BY THU AFTN...END ACROSS THE SRN HLF OF THE
FA THU NGT AND THEN END ACROSS THE N FRI MORN. OTHERWISE...BRISK
AND COOL CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE PRES GRAD ON THE WEST
SIDE OF THE LOW PRES. BOTH LOW TEMPS THU AND HIGHS FRI WILL BE
RELATIVELY MILD...SINCE THE AIR MASS BEHIND THE LOW IS NOT ARCTIC
IN CHARACTER. MOST MODELS INDICATE SIG LLVL DRYING MOVING INTO THE
THE FA FRI NGT FROM QB PROV WITH THE APCH OF SFC HI PRES FROM
CNTRL CAN... SO WE WILL GO WITH CLRG THIS PD. IF THIS DRYING IS IN
ERROR...SKIES WILL REMAIN CLDY THRU SAT...WITH ANOTHER STRONG
SUBSIDENCE INVSN FORMING BY SAT MORN PREVENTING ANY LLVL MOISTURE
FROM LOFTING ABV 925 MB. BASED ON A FCST OF CLRG AND DIMINISHING
WINDS LATE...WE WILL GO WITH SOME MODEST VLY RADIATIONAL COOLING
OVRNGT LOWS FOR ERLY SAT MORN.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ASSUMING THE LLVLS OF THE ATMOSPHERE DRY OUT FRI NGT...SAT SHOULD
BE MSLY SUNNY WITH LGT WINDS AS SFC HI PRES CROSSES THE REGION.
SAT NGT SHOULD BE FAIR...BUT WITH WINDS JUST ABV THE SFC TURNING
TO THE S BEHIND HIGH PRES DEPARTING VIA THE CAN MARITIMES...SOME
ST IS LIKELY TO ADVC NWRD INTO THE REGION FROM THE GULF OF ME...
SPCLY LATE AT NGT.

OTHERWISE...THE 00Z DTMNSTC GFS IS CONSIDERABLY DRIER THAN THE
CORRESPONDING 00Z ECMWF FOR SUN THRU MON...WITH THE GFS MUCH
WEAKER WITH S/WVS MOVING TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE MIDWEST FOR
BOTH LATE SUN AND AGAIN LATE SUN NGT THRU MON. TAKING A BLEND
BETWEEN BOTH MODELS RESULTS IN A FAIRLY LENGTHY PD OF CHC SN
POPS ACROSS CNTRL AND DOWNEAST AREAS FROM LATE SUN INTO MON NGT
WITH A CHC OF RN DURG DAY PDS ALG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. ACROSS THE
N...POPS MSLY REMAIN IN THE SLIGHT CHC CATEGORY.

GIVEN THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE LONG RANGE MODELS REGARDING THE
AMPLITUDE...PLACEMENT AND POTENTIAL IMPACT OF S/WVS FROM THE
MIDWEST...FCST CONFIDENCE IS CONSIDERED TO BE LOWER THAN AVG FOR
THIS PTN OF THE LONG RANGE. REGARDLESS OF THE OUTCOME MOST MODELS
AGREE THAT THE REGION SHOULD EXPERIENCE A BREAK ON TUE BEFORE A
POTENTIALLY MORE SIGNIFICANT LOW FROM THE MIDWEST APCHS THE REGION
ON WED. TEMPS IN THE LONG RANGE WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY MILD FOR
THIS TM OF SEASON...WITH NO ARCTIC AIR XPCTD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH
THE PERIOD DUE TO LOW CEILINGS AND RESTRICTED VISIBILITY IN
PRECIPITATION AND FOG. THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE RAIN AT KBHB AND
KBGR UNTIL MIXING WITH SNOW LATE TONIGHT. THE NORTHERN TERMINALS
WILL SEE A MIX OF SNOW, SLEET, AND FREEZING RAIN THROUGH THE DAY,
WITH KHUL AND PERHAPS KPQI CHANGING TO RAIN THIS AFTERNOON. THESE
SITES WILL THEN TRANSITION OVER TO SNOW OVERNIGHT.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: IFR CONDITIONS WITH CLGS AND VSBYS IN SN WILL
IMPROVE SLOWLY TO MVFR SW TO NE ACROSS THE TAF SITES THU AFTN AND
THU NGT...THEN TO VFR LATE THU NGT AND FRI MORN. AFTWRDS...ALL
SITES SHOULD REMAIN VFR FRI AFTN THRU SAT NGT...THEN PERHAPS LOWER
TO MVFR CLGS AND VSBYS IN LGT SN ON SUN ACROSS DOWNEAST SITES.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS PLACE FOR TODAY.
WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS OF 30 KT AND SEAS OF 4 TO 6 FEET
CAN BE EXPECTED. CONDITIONS WILL EXPERIENCE A LULL OVERNIGHT AS
THE LOW MOVES OVER THE WATERS, BUT WINDS AND WAVES WILL LIKELY
BEGIN TO BUILD AGAIN TOWARD MORNING.

SHORT TERM: WVS AND OR WINDS WILL REMAIN IN SCA CRITERIA INTO FRI
MORN...THEN SLOWLY SUBSIDE BLO CRITERIA FRI AFTN AND FRI NGT...
THEN REMAIN BLO SCA SAT AND SUN. KEPT CLOSE TO WW3 WV GUIDANCE FOR
FCST WV HTS THIS UPDATE.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THURSDAY FOR MEZ001>004.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MEZ005-006-010.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HASTINGS
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...HASTINGS/VJN
MARINE...HASTINGS/VJN



000
FXUS61 KCAR 170836
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
336 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST TODAY...THEN
TRACK ACROSS THE DOWNEAST COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT AND INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE FROM CENTRAL CANADA WILL APPROACH
THE REGION ON FRIDAY...THEN CREST THE REGION ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE CHALLENGE FOR THIS PERIOD IS PRECIPITATION TYPE AND RESULTANT
SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS.

LOW PRESSURE HAS DEVELOPED OFF LONG ISLAND THIS MORNING. THIS SYSTEM
WILL TREK NORTHEAST TODAY AND TONIGHT, EVENTUALLY MOVING INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES. ALTHOUGH WE`RE ALREADY SEEING SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION AT THIS HOUR, THE HEAVIEST ACTIVITY
CAN BE SEEN ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS PRECIPITATION WILL
SPREAD INTO OUR FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. ACROSS
SOUTHERN/DOWNEAST MAINE WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY AT OR ABOVE
FREEZING, THE PRECIPITATION WILL START OUT AS RAIN AND REMAIN SO
THROUGH THE DAY. ACROSS THE NORTH, THOUGH, TEMPERATURES ARE BELOW
FREEZING AND EXPECT THE PRECIPITATION WILL START OUT AS A MIX OF
SNOW, SLEET, AND FREEZING RAIN THAT WILL LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY. THE RAIN/FROZEN PRECIP LINE WILL MAKE IT TO ABOUT PRESQUE ISLE-
PATTEN-KOKADJO BY THIS AFTERNOON. NORTH OF THIS LINE, THE WINTRY MIX
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS. COLDER AIR, BOTH AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT, WILL QUICKLY MOVE IN TONIGHT AS THE LOW SHIFTS
INTO NOVA SCOTIA. AS SUCH, THE PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE OVER TO ALL
SNOW, STARTING FIRST IN THE WESTERN SAINT JOHN AND ALLAGASH VALLEYS
AND THEN SLIDING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS IS WHEN
THE MOST ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL OCCUR, ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN
HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THE BEST FORCING AND THEREFORE THE
HIGHEST TOTAL QPF LOOKS TO SET UP A BIT FURTHER SOUTH THAN WHAT HAD
BEEN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED, SO THE HEAVIEST SNOW AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN
SHIFTED A BIT SOUTH AS WELL. STILL, 6-10 INCHES OF SNOW AND SLEET IS
LIKELY OVER NORTHERN MAINE, WITH THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS TO GET 3 TO 6
INCHES. SOUTHERN AND DOWNEAST LOCALES WILL MOSTLY SEE 2 INCHES OR
LESS. ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE GREATEST ACROSS THE NORTH AS WELL,
WITH UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH POSSIBLE. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
REMAINS IN PLACE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL ACROSS MSLY NRN AND ERN PTNS OF THE FA WILL
WIND DOWN TO SN SHWRS BY THU AFTN...END ACROSS THE SRN HLF OF THE
FA THU NGT AND THEN END ACROSS THE N FRI MORN. OTHERWISE...BRISK
AND COOL CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE PRES GRAD ON THE WEST
SIDE OF THE LOW PRES. BOTH LOW TEMPS THU AND HIGHS FRI WILL BE
RELATIVELY MILD...SINCE THE AIR MASS BEHIND THE LOW IS NOT ARCTIC
IN CHARACTER. MOST MODELS INDICATE SIG LLVL DRYING MOVING INTO THE
THE FA FRI NGT FROM QB PROV WITH THE APCH OF SFC HI PRES FROM
CNTRL CAN... SO WE WILL GO WITH CLRG THIS PD. IF THIS DRYING IS IN
ERROR...SKIES WILL REMAIN CLDY THRU SAT...WITH ANOTHER STRONG
SUBSIDENCE INVSN FORMING BY SAT MORN PREVENTING ANY LLVL MOISTURE
FROM LOFTING ABV 925 MB. BASED ON A FCST OF CLRG AND DIMINISHING
WINDS LATE...WE WILL GO WITH SOME MODEST VLY RADIATIONAL COOLING
OVRNGT LOWS FOR ERLY SAT MORN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ASSUMING THE LLVLS OF THE ATMOSPHERE DRY OUT FRI NGT...SAT SHOULD
BE MSLY SUNNY WITH LGT WINDS AS SFC HI PRES CROSSES THE REGION.
SAT NGT SHOULD BE FAIR...BUT WITH WINDS JUST ABV THE SFC TURNING
TO THE S BEHIND HIGH PRES DEPARTING VIA THE CAN MARITIMES...SOME
ST IS LIKELY TO ADVC NWRD INTO THE REGION FROM THE GULF OF ME...
SPCLY LATE AT NGT.

OTHERWISE...THE 00Z DTMNSTC GFS IS CONSIDERABLY DRIER THAN THE
CORRESPONDING 00Z ECMWF FOR SUN THRU MON...WITH THE GFS MUCH
WEAKER WITH S/WVS MOVING TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE MIDWEST FOR
BOTH LATE SUN AND AGAIN LATE SUN NGT THRU MON. TAKING A BLEND
BETWEEN BOTH MODELS RESULTS IN A FAIRLY LENGTHY PD OF CHC SN
POPS ACROSS CNTRL AND DOWNEAST AREAS FROM LATE SUN INTO MON NGT
WITH A CHC OF RN DURG DAY PDS ALG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. ACROSS THE
N...POPS MSLY REMAIN IN THE SLIGHT CHC CATEGORY.

GIVEN THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE LONG RANGE MODELS REGARDING THE
AMPLITUDE...PLACEMENT AND POTENTIAL IMPACT OF S/WVS FROM THE
MIDWEST...FCST CONFIDENCE IS CONSIDERED TO BE LOWER THAN AVG FOR
THIS PTN OF THE LONG RANGE. REGARDLESS OF THE OUTCOME MOST MODELS
AGREE THAT THE REGION SHOULD EXPERIENCE A BREAK ON TUE BEFORE A
POTENTIALLY MORE SIGNIFICANT LOW FROM THE MIDWEST APCHS THE REGION
ON WED. TEMPS IN THE LONG RANGE WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY MILD FOR
THIS TM OF SEASON...WITH NO ARCTIC AIR XPCTD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH
THE PERIOD DUE TO LOW CEILINGS AND RESTRICTED VISIBILITY IN
PRECIPITATION AND FOG. THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE RAIN AT KBHB AND
KBGR UNTIL MIXING WITH SNOW LATE TONIGHT. THE NORTHERN TERMINALS
WILL SEE A MIX OF SNOW, SLEET, AND FREEZING RAIN THROUGH THE DAY,
WITH KHUL AND PERHAPS KPQI CHANGING TO RAIN THIS AFTERNOON. THESE
SITES WILL THEN TRANSITION OVER TO SNOW OVERNIGHT.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: IFR CONDITIONS WITH CLGS AND VSBYS IN SN WILL
IMPROVE SLOWLY TO MVFR SW TO NE ACROSS THE TAF SITES THU AFTN AND
THU NGT...THEN TO VFR LATE THU NGT AND FRI MORN. AFTWRDS...ALL
SITES SHOULD REMAIN VFR FRI AFTN THRU SAT NGT...THEN PERHAPS LOWER
TO MVFR CLGS AND VSBYS IN LGT SN ON SUN ACROSS DOWNEAST SITES.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS PLACE FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT. WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS OF 30 KT AND SEAS OF 4 TO 7
FEET CAN BE EXPECTED.

SHORT TERM: WVS AND OR WINDS WILL REMAIN IN SCA CRITERIA INTO FRI
MORN...THEN SLOWLY SUBSIDE BLO CRITERIA FRI AFTN AND FRI NGT...
THEN REMAIN BLO SCA SAT AND SUN. KEPT CLOSE TO WW3 WV GUIDANCE FOR
FCST WV HTS THIS UPDATE.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 3 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR MEZ001-002.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MEZ003>006-010.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HASTINGS
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...HASTINGS/VJN
MARINE...HASTINGS/VJN



000
FXUS61 KCAR 170836
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
336 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST TODAY...THEN
TRACK ACROSS THE DOWNEAST COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT AND INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE FROM CENTRAL CANADA WILL APPROACH
THE REGION ON FRIDAY...THEN CREST THE REGION ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE CHALLENGE FOR THIS PERIOD IS PRECIPITATION TYPE AND RESULTANT
SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS.

LOW PRESSURE HAS DEVELOPED OFF LONG ISLAND THIS MORNING. THIS SYSTEM
WILL TREK NORTHEAST TODAY AND TONIGHT, EVENTUALLY MOVING INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES. ALTHOUGH WE`RE ALREADY SEEING SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION AT THIS HOUR, THE HEAVIEST ACTIVITY
CAN BE SEEN ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS PRECIPITATION WILL
SPREAD INTO OUR FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. ACROSS
SOUTHERN/DOWNEAST MAINE WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY AT OR ABOVE
FREEZING, THE PRECIPITATION WILL START OUT AS RAIN AND REMAIN SO
THROUGH THE DAY. ACROSS THE NORTH, THOUGH, TEMPERATURES ARE BELOW
FREEZING AND EXPECT THE PRECIPITATION WILL START OUT AS A MIX OF
SNOW, SLEET, AND FREEZING RAIN THAT WILL LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY. THE RAIN/FROZEN PRECIP LINE WILL MAKE IT TO ABOUT PRESQUE ISLE-
PATTEN-KOKADJO BY THIS AFTERNOON. NORTH OF THIS LINE, THE WINTRY MIX
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS. COLDER AIR, BOTH AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT, WILL QUICKLY MOVE IN TONIGHT AS THE LOW SHIFTS
INTO NOVA SCOTIA. AS SUCH, THE PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE OVER TO ALL
SNOW, STARTING FIRST IN THE WESTERN SAINT JOHN AND ALLAGASH VALLEYS
AND THEN SLIDING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS IS WHEN
THE MOST ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL OCCUR, ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN
HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THE BEST FORCING AND THEREFORE THE
HIGHEST TOTAL QPF LOOKS TO SET UP A BIT FURTHER SOUTH THAN WHAT HAD
BEEN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED, SO THE HEAVIEST SNOW AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN
SHIFTED A BIT SOUTH AS WELL. STILL, 6-10 INCHES OF SNOW AND SLEET IS
LIKELY OVER NORTHERN MAINE, WITH THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS TO GET 3 TO 6
INCHES. SOUTHERN AND DOWNEAST LOCALES WILL MOSTLY SEE 2 INCHES OR
LESS. ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE GREATEST ACROSS THE NORTH AS WELL,
WITH UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH POSSIBLE. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
REMAINS IN PLACE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL ACROSS MSLY NRN AND ERN PTNS OF THE FA WILL
WIND DOWN TO SN SHWRS BY THU AFTN...END ACROSS THE SRN HLF OF THE
FA THU NGT AND THEN END ACROSS THE N FRI MORN. OTHERWISE...BRISK
AND COOL CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE PRES GRAD ON THE WEST
SIDE OF THE LOW PRES. BOTH LOW TEMPS THU AND HIGHS FRI WILL BE
RELATIVELY MILD...SINCE THE AIR MASS BEHIND THE LOW IS NOT ARCTIC
IN CHARACTER. MOST MODELS INDICATE SIG LLVL DRYING MOVING INTO THE
THE FA FRI NGT FROM QB PROV WITH THE APCH OF SFC HI PRES FROM
CNTRL CAN... SO WE WILL GO WITH CLRG THIS PD. IF THIS DRYING IS IN
ERROR...SKIES WILL REMAIN CLDY THRU SAT...WITH ANOTHER STRONG
SUBSIDENCE INVSN FORMING BY SAT MORN PREVENTING ANY LLVL MOISTURE
FROM LOFTING ABV 925 MB. BASED ON A FCST OF CLRG AND DIMINISHING
WINDS LATE...WE WILL GO WITH SOME MODEST VLY RADIATIONAL COOLING
OVRNGT LOWS FOR ERLY SAT MORN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ASSUMING THE LLVLS OF THE ATMOSPHERE DRY OUT FRI NGT...SAT SHOULD
BE MSLY SUNNY WITH LGT WINDS AS SFC HI PRES CROSSES THE REGION.
SAT NGT SHOULD BE FAIR...BUT WITH WINDS JUST ABV THE SFC TURNING
TO THE S BEHIND HIGH PRES DEPARTING VIA THE CAN MARITIMES...SOME
ST IS LIKELY TO ADVC NWRD INTO THE REGION FROM THE GULF OF ME...
SPCLY LATE AT NGT.

OTHERWISE...THE 00Z DTMNSTC GFS IS CONSIDERABLY DRIER THAN THE
CORRESPONDING 00Z ECMWF FOR SUN THRU MON...WITH THE GFS MUCH
WEAKER WITH S/WVS MOVING TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE MIDWEST FOR
BOTH LATE SUN AND AGAIN LATE SUN NGT THRU MON. TAKING A BLEND
BETWEEN BOTH MODELS RESULTS IN A FAIRLY LENGTHY PD OF CHC SN
POPS ACROSS CNTRL AND DOWNEAST AREAS FROM LATE SUN INTO MON NGT
WITH A CHC OF RN DURG DAY PDS ALG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. ACROSS THE
N...POPS MSLY REMAIN IN THE SLIGHT CHC CATEGORY.

GIVEN THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE LONG RANGE MODELS REGARDING THE
AMPLITUDE...PLACEMENT AND POTENTIAL IMPACT OF S/WVS FROM THE
MIDWEST...FCST CONFIDENCE IS CONSIDERED TO BE LOWER THAN AVG FOR
THIS PTN OF THE LONG RANGE. REGARDLESS OF THE OUTCOME MOST MODELS
AGREE THAT THE REGION SHOULD EXPERIENCE A BREAK ON TUE BEFORE A
POTENTIALLY MORE SIGNIFICANT LOW FROM THE MIDWEST APCHS THE REGION
ON WED. TEMPS IN THE LONG RANGE WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY MILD FOR
THIS TM OF SEASON...WITH NO ARCTIC AIR XPCTD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH
THE PERIOD DUE TO LOW CEILINGS AND RESTRICTED VISIBILITY IN
PRECIPITATION AND FOG. THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE RAIN AT KBHB AND
KBGR UNTIL MIXING WITH SNOW LATE TONIGHT. THE NORTHERN TERMINALS
WILL SEE A MIX OF SNOW, SLEET, AND FREEZING RAIN THROUGH THE DAY,
WITH KHUL AND PERHAPS KPQI CHANGING TO RAIN THIS AFTERNOON. THESE
SITES WILL THEN TRANSITION OVER TO SNOW OVERNIGHT.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: IFR CONDITIONS WITH CLGS AND VSBYS IN SN WILL
IMPROVE SLOWLY TO MVFR SW TO NE ACROSS THE TAF SITES THU AFTN AND
THU NGT...THEN TO VFR LATE THU NGT AND FRI MORN. AFTWRDS...ALL
SITES SHOULD REMAIN VFR FRI AFTN THRU SAT NGT...THEN PERHAPS LOWER
TO MVFR CLGS AND VSBYS IN LGT SN ON SUN ACROSS DOWNEAST SITES.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS PLACE FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT. WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS OF 30 KT AND SEAS OF 4 TO 7
FEET CAN BE EXPECTED.

SHORT TERM: WVS AND OR WINDS WILL REMAIN IN SCA CRITERIA INTO FRI
MORN...THEN SLOWLY SUBSIDE BLO CRITERIA FRI AFTN AND FRI NGT...
THEN REMAIN BLO SCA SAT AND SUN. KEPT CLOSE TO WW3 WV GUIDANCE FOR
FCST WV HTS THIS UPDATE.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 3 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR MEZ001-002.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MEZ003>006-010.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HASTINGS
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...HASTINGS/VJN
MARINE...HASTINGS/VJN



000
FXUS61 KCAR 170836
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
336 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST TODAY...THEN
TRACK ACROSS THE DOWNEAST COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT AND INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE FROM CENTRAL CANADA WILL APPROACH
THE REGION ON FRIDAY...THEN CREST THE REGION ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE CHALLENGE FOR THIS PERIOD IS PRECIPITATION TYPE AND RESULTANT
SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS.

LOW PRESSURE HAS DEVELOPED OFF LONG ISLAND THIS MORNING. THIS SYSTEM
WILL TREK NORTHEAST TODAY AND TONIGHT, EVENTUALLY MOVING INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES. ALTHOUGH WE`RE ALREADY SEEING SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION AT THIS HOUR, THE HEAVIEST ACTIVITY
CAN BE SEEN ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS PRECIPITATION WILL
SPREAD INTO OUR FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. ACROSS
SOUTHERN/DOWNEAST MAINE WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY AT OR ABOVE
FREEZING, THE PRECIPITATION WILL START OUT AS RAIN AND REMAIN SO
THROUGH THE DAY. ACROSS THE NORTH, THOUGH, TEMPERATURES ARE BELOW
FREEZING AND EXPECT THE PRECIPITATION WILL START OUT AS A MIX OF
SNOW, SLEET, AND FREEZING RAIN THAT WILL LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY. THE RAIN/FROZEN PRECIP LINE WILL MAKE IT TO ABOUT PRESQUE ISLE-
PATTEN-KOKADJO BY THIS AFTERNOON. NORTH OF THIS LINE, THE WINTRY MIX
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS. COLDER AIR, BOTH AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT, WILL QUICKLY MOVE IN TONIGHT AS THE LOW SHIFTS
INTO NOVA SCOTIA. AS SUCH, THE PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE OVER TO ALL
SNOW, STARTING FIRST IN THE WESTERN SAINT JOHN AND ALLAGASH VALLEYS
AND THEN SLIDING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS IS WHEN
THE MOST ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL OCCUR, ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN
HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THE BEST FORCING AND THEREFORE THE
HIGHEST TOTAL QPF LOOKS TO SET UP A BIT FURTHER SOUTH THAN WHAT HAD
BEEN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED, SO THE HEAVIEST SNOW AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN
SHIFTED A BIT SOUTH AS WELL. STILL, 6-10 INCHES OF SNOW AND SLEET IS
LIKELY OVER NORTHERN MAINE, WITH THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS TO GET 3 TO 6
INCHES. SOUTHERN AND DOWNEAST LOCALES WILL MOSTLY SEE 2 INCHES OR
LESS. ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE GREATEST ACROSS THE NORTH AS WELL,
WITH UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH POSSIBLE. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
REMAINS IN PLACE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL ACROSS MSLY NRN AND ERN PTNS OF THE FA WILL
WIND DOWN TO SN SHWRS BY THU AFTN...END ACROSS THE SRN HLF OF THE
FA THU NGT AND THEN END ACROSS THE N FRI MORN. OTHERWISE...BRISK
AND COOL CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE PRES GRAD ON THE WEST
SIDE OF THE LOW PRES. BOTH LOW TEMPS THU AND HIGHS FRI WILL BE
RELATIVELY MILD...SINCE THE AIR MASS BEHIND THE LOW IS NOT ARCTIC
IN CHARACTER. MOST MODELS INDICATE SIG LLVL DRYING MOVING INTO THE
THE FA FRI NGT FROM QB PROV WITH THE APCH OF SFC HI PRES FROM
CNTRL CAN... SO WE WILL GO WITH CLRG THIS PD. IF THIS DRYING IS IN
ERROR...SKIES WILL REMAIN CLDY THRU SAT...WITH ANOTHER STRONG
SUBSIDENCE INVSN FORMING BY SAT MORN PREVENTING ANY LLVL MOISTURE
FROM LOFTING ABV 925 MB. BASED ON A FCST OF CLRG AND DIMINISHING
WINDS LATE...WE WILL GO WITH SOME MODEST VLY RADIATIONAL COOLING
OVRNGT LOWS FOR ERLY SAT MORN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ASSUMING THE LLVLS OF THE ATMOSPHERE DRY OUT FRI NGT...SAT SHOULD
BE MSLY SUNNY WITH LGT WINDS AS SFC HI PRES CROSSES THE REGION.
SAT NGT SHOULD BE FAIR...BUT WITH WINDS JUST ABV THE SFC TURNING
TO THE S BEHIND HIGH PRES DEPARTING VIA THE CAN MARITIMES...SOME
ST IS LIKELY TO ADVC NWRD INTO THE REGION FROM THE GULF OF ME...
SPCLY LATE AT NGT.

OTHERWISE...THE 00Z DTMNSTC GFS IS CONSIDERABLY DRIER THAN THE
CORRESPONDING 00Z ECMWF FOR SUN THRU MON...WITH THE GFS MUCH
WEAKER WITH S/WVS MOVING TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE MIDWEST FOR
BOTH LATE SUN AND AGAIN LATE SUN NGT THRU MON. TAKING A BLEND
BETWEEN BOTH MODELS RESULTS IN A FAIRLY LENGTHY PD OF CHC SN
POPS ACROSS CNTRL AND DOWNEAST AREAS FROM LATE SUN INTO MON NGT
WITH A CHC OF RN DURG DAY PDS ALG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. ACROSS THE
N...POPS MSLY REMAIN IN THE SLIGHT CHC CATEGORY.

GIVEN THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE LONG RANGE MODELS REGARDING THE
AMPLITUDE...PLACEMENT AND POTENTIAL IMPACT OF S/WVS FROM THE
MIDWEST...FCST CONFIDENCE IS CONSIDERED TO BE LOWER THAN AVG FOR
THIS PTN OF THE LONG RANGE. REGARDLESS OF THE OUTCOME MOST MODELS
AGREE THAT THE REGION SHOULD EXPERIENCE A BREAK ON TUE BEFORE A
POTENTIALLY MORE SIGNIFICANT LOW FROM THE MIDWEST APCHS THE REGION
ON WED. TEMPS IN THE LONG RANGE WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY MILD FOR
THIS TM OF SEASON...WITH NO ARCTIC AIR XPCTD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH
THE PERIOD DUE TO LOW CEILINGS AND RESTRICTED VISIBILITY IN
PRECIPITATION AND FOG. THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE RAIN AT KBHB AND
KBGR UNTIL MIXING WITH SNOW LATE TONIGHT. THE NORTHERN TERMINALS
WILL SEE A MIX OF SNOW, SLEET, AND FREEZING RAIN THROUGH THE DAY,
WITH KHUL AND PERHAPS KPQI CHANGING TO RAIN THIS AFTERNOON. THESE
SITES WILL THEN TRANSITION OVER TO SNOW OVERNIGHT.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: IFR CONDITIONS WITH CLGS AND VSBYS IN SN WILL
IMPROVE SLOWLY TO MVFR SW TO NE ACROSS THE TAF SITES THU AFTN AND
THU NGT...THEN TO VFR LATE THU NGT AND FRI MORN. AFTWRDS...ALL
SITES SHOULD REMAIN VFR FRI AFTN THRU SAT NGT...THEN PERHAPS LOWER
TO MVFR CLGS AND VSBYS IN LGT SN ON SUN ACROSS DOWNEAST SITES.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS PLACE FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT. WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS OF 30 KT AND SEAS OF 4 TO 7
FEET CAN BE EXPECTED.

SHORT TERM: WVS AND OR WINDS WILL REMAIN IN SCA CRITERIA INTO FRI
MORN...THEN SLOWLY SUBSIDE BLO CRITERIA FRI AFTN AND FRI NGT...
THEN REMAIN BLO SCA SAT AND SUN. KEPT CLOSE TO WW3 WV GUIDANCE FOR
FCST WV HTS THIS UPDATE.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 3 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR MEZ001-002.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MEZ003>006-010.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HASTINGS
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...HASTINGS/VJN
MARINE...HASTINGS/VJN



000
FXUS61 KCAR 170836
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
336 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST TODAY...THEN
TRACK ACROSS THE DOWNEAST COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT AND INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE FROM CENTRAL CANADA WILL APPROACH
THE REGION ON FRIDAY...THEN CREST THE REGION ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE CHALLENGE FOR THIS PERIOD IS PRECIPITATION TYPE AND RESULTANT
SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS.

LOW PRESSURE HAS DEVELOPED OFF LONG ISLAND THIS MORNING. THIS SYSTEM
WILL TREK NORTHEAST TODAY AND TONIGHT, EVENTUALLY MOVING INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES. ALTHOUGH WE`RE ALREADY SEEING SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION AT THIS HOUR, THE HEAVIEST ACTIVITY
CAN BE SEEN ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS PRECIPITATION WILL
SPREAD INTO OUR FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. ACROSS
SOUTHERN/DOWNEAST MAINE WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY AT OR ABOVE
FREEZING, THE PRECIPITATION WILL START OUT AS RAIN AND REMAIN SO
THROUGH THE DAY. ACROSS THE NORTH, THOUGH, TEMPERATURES ARE BELOW
FREEZING AND EXPECT THE PRECIPITATION WILL START OUT AS A MIX OF
SNOW, SLEET, AND FREEZING RAIN THAT WILL LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY. THE RAIN/FROZEN PRECIP LINE WILL MAKE IT TO ABOUT PRESQUE ISLE-
PATTEN-KOKADJO BY THIS AFTERNOON. NORTH OF THIS LINE, THE WINTRY MIX
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS. COLDER AIR, BOTH AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT, WILL QUICKLY MOVE IN TONIGHT AS THE LOW SHIFTS
INTO NOVA SCOTIA. AS SUCH, THE PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE OVER TO ALL
SNOW, STARTING FIRST IN THE WESTERN SAINT JOHN AND ALLAGASH VALLEYS
AND THEN SLIDING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS IS WHEN
THE MOST ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL OCCUR, ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN
HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THE BEST FORCING AND THEREFORE THE
HIGHEST TOTAL QPF LOOKS TO SET UP A BIT FURTHER SOUTH THAN WHAT HAD
BEEN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED, SO THE HEAVIEST SNOW AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN
SHIFTED A BIT SOUTH AS WELL. STILL, 6-10 INCHES OF SNOW AND SLEET IS
LIKELY OVER NORTHERN MAINE, WITH THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS TO GET 3 TO 6
INCHES. SOUTHERN AND DOWNEAST LOCALES WILL MOSTLY SEE 2 INCHES OR
LESS. ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE GREATEST ACROSS THE NORTH AS WELL,
WITH UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH POSSIBLE. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
REMAINS IN PLACE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL ACROSS MSLY NRN AND ERN PTNS OF THE FA WILL
WIND DOWN TO SN SHWRS BY THU AFTN...END ACROSS THE SRN HLF OF THE
FA THU NGT AND THEN END ACROSS THE N FRI MORN. OTHERWISE...BRISK
AND COOL CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE PRES GRAD ON THE WEST
SIDE OF THE LOW PRES. BOTH LOW TEMPS THU AND HIGHS FRI WILL BE
RELATIVELY MILD...SINCE THE AIR MASS BEHIND THE LOW IS NOT ARCTIC
IN CHARACTER. MOST MODELS INDICATE SIG LLVL DRYING MOVING INTO THE
THE FA FRI NGT FROM QB PROV WITH THE APCH OF SFC HI PRES FROM
CNTRL CAN... SO WE WILL GO WITH CLRG THIS PD. IF THIS DRYING IS IN
ERROR...SKIES WILL REMAIN CLDY THRU SAT...WITH ANOTHER STRONG
SUBSIDENCE INVSN FORMING BY SAT MORN PREVENTING ANY LLVL MOISTURE
FROM LOFTING ABV 925 MB. BASED ON A FCST OF CLRG AND DIMINISHING
WINDS LATE...WE WILL GO WITH SOME MODEST VLY RADIATIONAL COOLING
OVRNGT LOWS FOR ERLY SAT MORN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ASSUMING THE LLVLS OF THE ATMOSPHERE DRY OUT FRI NGT...SAT SHOULD
BE MSLY SUNNY WITH LGT WINDS AS SFC HI PRES CROSSES THE REGION.
SAT NGT SHOULD BE FAIR...BUT WITH WINDS JUST ABV THE SFC TURNING
TO THE S BEHIND HIGH PRES DEPARTING VIA THE CAN MARITIMES...SOME
ST IS LIKELY TO ADVC NWRD INTO THE REGION FROM THE GULF OF ME...
SPCLY LATE AT NGT.

OTHERWISE...THE 00Z DTMNSTC GFS IS CONSIDERABLY DRIER THAN THE
CORRESPONDING 00Z ECMWF FOR SUN THRU MON...WITH THE GFS MUCH
WEAKER WITH S/WVS MOVING TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE MIDWEST FOR
BOTH LATE SUN AND AGAIN LATE SUN NGT THRU MON. TAKING A BLEND
BETWEEN BOTH MODELS RESULTS IN A FAIRLY LENGTHY PD OF CHC SN
POPS ACROSS CNTRL AND DOWNEAST AREAS FROM LATE SUN INTO MON NGT
WITH A CHC OF RN DURG DAY PDS ALG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. ACROSS THE
N...POPS MSLY REMAIN IN THE SLIGHT CHC CATEGORY.

GIVEN THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE LONG RANGE MODELS REGARDING THE
AMPLITUDE...PLACEMENT AND POTENTIAL IMPACT OF S/WVS FROM THE
MIDWEST...FCST CONFIDENCE IS CONSIDERED TO BE LOWER THAN AVG FOR
THIS PTN OF THE LONG RANGE. REGARDLESS OF THE OUTCOME MOST MODELS
AGREE THAT THE REGION SHOULD EXPERIENCE A BREAK ON TUE BEFORE A
POTENTIALLY MORE SIGNIFICANT LOW FROM THE MIDWEST APCHS THE REGION
ON WED. TEMPS IN THE LONG RANGE WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY MILD FOR
THIS TM OF SEASON...WITH NO ARCTIC AIR XPCTD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH
THE PERIOD DUE TO LOW CEILINGS AND RESTRICTED VISIBILITY IN
PRECIPITATION AND FOG. THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE RAIN AT KBHB AND
KBGR UNTIL MIXING WITH SNOW LATE TONIGHT. THE NORTHERN TERMINALS
WILL SEE A MIX OF SNOW, SLEET, AND FREEZING RAIN THROUGH THE DAY,
WITH KHUL AND PERHAPS KPQI CHANGING TO RAIN THIS AFTERNOON. THESE
SITES WILL THEN TRANSITION OVER TO SNOW OVERNIGHT.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: IFR CONDITIONS WITH CLGS AND VSBYS IN SN WILL
IMPROVE SLOWLY TO MVFR SW TO NE ACROSS THE TAF SITES THU AFTN AND
THU NGT...THEN TO VFR LATE THU NGT AND FRI MORN. AFTWRDS...ALL
SITES SHOULD REMAIN VFR FRI AFTN THRU SAT NGT...THEN PERHAPS LOWER
TO MVFR CLGS AND VSBYS IN LGT SN ON SUN ACROSS DOWNEAST SITES.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS PLACE FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT. WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS OF 30 KT AND SEAS OF 4 TO 7
FEET CAN BE EXPECTED.

SHORT TERM: WVS AND OR WINDS WILL REMAIN IN SCA CRITERIA INTO FRI
MORN...THEN SLOWLY SUBSIDE BLO CRITERIA FRI AFTN AND FRI NGT...
THEN REMAIN BLO SCA SAT AND SUN. KEPT CLOSE TO WW3 WV GUIDANCE FOR
FCST WV HTS THIS UPDATE.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 3 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR MEZ001-002.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MEZ003>006-010.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HASTINGS
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...HASTINGS/VJN
MARINE...HASTINGS/VJN



000
FXUS61 KCAR 170836
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
336 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST TODAY...THEN
TRACK ACROSS THE DOWNEAST COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT AND INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE FROM CENTRAL CANADA WILL APPROACH
THE REGION ON FRIDAY...THEN CREST THE REGION ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE CHALLENGE FOR THIS PERIOD IS PRECIPITATION TYPE AND RESULTANT
SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS.

LOW PRESSURE HAS DEVELOPED OFF LONG ISLAND THIS MORNING. THIS SYSTEM
WILL TREK NORTHEAST TODAY AND TONIGHT, EVENTUALLY MOVING INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES. ALTHOUGH WE`RE ALREADY SEEING SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION AT THIS HOUR, THE HEAVIEST ACTIVITY
CAN BE SEEN ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS PRECIPITATION WILL
SPREAD INTO OUR FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. ACROSS
SOUTHERN/DOWNEAST MAINE WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY AT OR ABOVE
FREEZING, THE PRECIPITATION WILL START OUT AS RAIN AND REMAIN SO
THROUGH THE DAY. ACROSS THE NORTH, THOUGH, TEMPERATURES ARE BELOW
FREEZING AND EXPECT THE PRECIPITATION WILL START OUT AS A MIX OF
SNOW, SLEET, AND FREEZING RAIN THAT WILL LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY. THE RAIN/FROZEN PRECIP LINE WILL MAKE IT TO ABOUT PRESQUE ISLE-
PATTEN-KOKADJO BY THIS AFTERNOON. NORTH OF THIS LINE, THE WINTRY MIX
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS. COLDER AIR, BOTH AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT, WILL QUICKLY MOVE IN TONIGHT AS THE LOW SHIFTS
INTO NOVA SCOTIA. AS SUCH, THE PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE OVER TO ALL
SNOW, STARTING FIRST IN THE WESTERN SAINT JOHN AND ALLAGASH VALLEYS
AND THEN SLIDING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS IS WHEN
THE MOST ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL OCCUR, ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN
HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THE BEST FORCING AND THEREFORE THE
HIGHEST TOTAL QPF LOOKS TO SET UP A BIT FURTHER SOUTH THAN WHAT HAD
BEEN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED, SO THE HEAVIEST SNOW AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN
SHIFTED A BIT SOUTH AS WELL. STILL, 6-10 INCHES OF SNOW AND SLEET IS
LIKELY OVER NORTHERN MAINE, WITH THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS TO GET 3 TO 6
INCHES. SOUTHERN AND DOWNEAST LOCALES WILL MOSTLY SEE 2 INCHES OR
LESS. ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE GREATEST ACROSS THE NORTH AS WELL,
WITH UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH POSSIBLE. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
REMAINS IN PLACE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL ACROSS MSLY NRN AND ERN PTNS OF THE FA WILL
WIND DOWN TO SN SHWRS BY THU AFTN...END ACROSS THE SRN HLF OF THE
FA THU NGT AND THEN END ACROSS THE N FRI MORN. OTHERWISE...BRISK
AND COOL CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE PRES GRAD ON THE WEST
SIDE OF THE LOW PRES. BOTH LOW TEMPS THU AND HIGHS FRI WILL BE
RELATIVELY MILD...SINCE THE AIR MASS BEHIND THE LOW IS NOT ARCTIC
IN CHARACTER. MOST MODELS INDICATE SIG LLVL DRYING MOVING INTO THE
THE FA FRI NGT FROM QB PROV WITH THE APCH OF SFC HI PRES FROM
CNTRL CAN... SO WE WILL GO WITH CLRG THIS PD. IF THIS DRYING IS IN
ERROR...SKIES WILL REMAIN CLDY THRU SAT...WITH ANOTHER STRONG
SUBSIDENCE INVSN FORMING BY SAT MORN PREVENTING ANY LLVL MOISTURE
FROM LOFTING ABV 925 MB. BASED ON A FCST OF CLRG AND DIMINISHING
WINDS LATE...WE WILL GO WITH SOME MODEST VLY RADIATIONAL COOLING
OVRNGT LOWS FOR ERLY SAT MORN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ASSUMING THE LLVLS OF THE ATMOSPHERE DRY OUT FRI NGT...SAT SHOULD
BE MSLY SUNNY WITH LGT WINDS AS SFC HI PRES CROSSES THE REGION.
SAT NGT SHOULD BE FAIR...BUT WITH WINDS JUST ABV THE SFC TURNING
TO THE S BEHIND HIGH PRES DEPARTING VIA THE CAN MARITIMES...SOME
ST IS LIKELY TO ADVC NWRD INTO THE REGION FROM THE GULF OF ME...
SPCLY LATE AT NGT.

OTHERWISE...THE 00Z DTMNSTC GFS IS CONSIDERABLY DRIER THAN THE
CORRESPONDING 00Z ECMWF FOR SUN THRU MON...WITH THE GFS MUCH
WEAKER WITH S/WVS MOVING TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE MIDWEST FOR
BOTH LATE SUN AND AGAIN LATE SUN NGT THRU MON. TAKING A BLEND
BETWEEN BOTH MODELS RESULTS IN A FAIRLY LENGTHY PD OF CHC SN
POPS ACROSS CNTRL AND DOWNEAST AREAS FROM LATE SUN INTO MON NGT
WITH A CHC OF RN DURG DAY PDS ALG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. ACROSS THE
N...POPS MSLY REMAIN IN THE SLIGHT CHC CATEGORY.

GIVEN THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE LONG RANGE MODELS REGARDING THE
AMPLITUDE...PLACEMENT AND POTENTIAL IMPACT OF S/WVS FROM THE
MIDWEST...FCST CONFIDENCE IS CONSIDERED TO BE LOWER THAN AVG FOR
THIS PTN OF THE LONG RANGE. REGARDLESS OF THE OUTCOME MOST MODELS
AGREE THAT THE REGION SHOULD EXPERIENCE A BREAK ON TUE BEFORE A
POTENTIALLY MORE SIGNIFICANT LOW FROM THE MIDWEST APCHS THE REGION
ON WED. TEMPS IN THE LONG RANGE WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY MILD FOR
THIS TM OF SEASON...WITH NO ARCTIC AIR XPCTD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH
THE PERIOD DUE TO LOW CEILINGS AND RESTRICTED VISIBILITY IN
PRECIPITATION AND FOG. THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE RAIN AT KBHB AND
KBGR UNTIL MIXING WITH SNOW LATE TONIGHT. THE NORTHERN TERMINALS
WILL SEE A MIX OF SNOW, SLEET, AND FREEZING RAIN THROUGH THE DAY,
WITH KHUL AND PERHAPS KPQI CHANGING TO RAIN THIS AFTERNOON. THESE
SITES WILL THEN TRANSITION OVER TO SNOW OVERNIGHT.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: IFR CONDITIONS WITH CLGS AND VSBYS IN SN WILL
IMPROVE SLOWLY TO MVFR SW TO NE ACROSS THE TAF SITES THU AFTN AND
THU NGT...THEN TO VFR LATE THU NGT AND FRI MORN. AFTWRDS...ALL
SITES SHOULD REMAIN VFR FRI AFTN THRU SAT NGT...THEN PERHAPS LOWER
TO MVFR CLGS AND VSBYS IN LGT SN ON SUN ACROSS DOWNEAST SITES.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS PLACE FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT. WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS OF 30 KT AND SEAS OF 4 TO 7
FEET CAN BE EXPECTED.

SHORT TERM: WVS AND OR WINDS WILL REMAIN IN SCA CRITERIA INTO FRI
MORN...THEN SLOWLY SUBSIDE BLO CRITERIA FRI AFTN AND FRI NGT...
THEN REMAIN BLO SCA SAT AND SUN. KEPT CLOSE TO WW3 WV GUIDANCE FOR
FCST WV HTS THIS UPDATE.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 3 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR MEZ001-002.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MEZ003>006-010.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HASTINGS
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...HASTINGS/VJN
MARINE...HASTINGS/VJN



000
FXUS61 KCAR 170836
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
336 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST TODAY...THEN
TRACK ACROSS THE DOWNEAST COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT AND INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE FROM CENTRAL CANADA WILL APPROACH
THE REGION ON FRIDAY...THEN CREST THE REGION ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE CHALLENGE FOR THIS PERIOD IS PRECIPITATION TYPE AND RESULTANT
SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS.

LOW PRESSURE HAS DEVELOPED OFF LONG ISLAND THIS MORNING. THIS SYSTEM
WILL TREK NORTHEAST TODAY AND TONIGHT, EVENTUALLY MOVING INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES. ALTHOUGH WE`RE ALREADY SEEING SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION AT THIS HOUR, THE HEAVIEST ACTIVITY
CAN BE SEEN ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS PRECIPITATION WILL
SPREAD INTO OUR FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. ACROSS
SOUTHERN/DOWNEAST MAINE WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY AT OR ABOVE
FREEZING, THE PRECIPITATION WILL START OUT AS RAIN AND REMAIN SO
THROUGH THE DAY. ACROSS THE NORTH, THOUGH, TEMPERATURES ARE BELOW
FREEZING AND EXPECT THE PRECIPITATION WILL START OUT AS A MIX OF
SNOW, SLEET, AND FREEZING RAIN THAT WILL LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY. THE RAIN/FROZEN PRECIP LINE WILL MAKE IT TO ABOUT PRESQUE ISLE-
PATTEN-KOKADJO BY THIS AFTERNOON. NORTH OF THIS LINE, THE WINTRY MIX
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS. COLDER AIR, BOTH AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT, WILL QUICKLY MOVE IN TONIGHT AS THE LOW SHIFTS
INTO NOVA SCOTIA. AS SUCH, THE PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE OVER TO ALL
SNOW, STARTING FIRST IN THE WESTERN SAINT JOHN AND ALLAGASH VALLEYS
AND THEN SLIDING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS IS WHEN
THE MOST ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL OCCUR, ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN
HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THE BEST FORCING AND THEREFORE THE
HIGHEST TOTAL QPF LOOKS TO SET UP A BIT FURTHER SOUTH THAN WHAT HAD
BEEN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED, SO THE HEAVIEST SNOW AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN
SHIFTED A BIT SOUTH AS WELL. STILL, 6-10 INCHES OF SNOW AND SLEET IS
LIKELY OVER NORTHERN MAINE, WITH THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS TO GET 3 TO 6
INCHES. SOUTHERN AND DOWNEAST LOCALES WILL MOSTLY SEE 2 INCHES OR
LESS. ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE GREATEST ACROSS THE NORTH AS WELL,
WITH UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH POSSIBLE. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
REMAINS IN PLACE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL ACROSS MSLY NRN AND ERN PTNS OF THE FA WILL
WIND DOWN TO SN SHWRS BY THU AFTN...END ACROSS THE SRN HLF OF THE
FA THU NGT AND THEN END ACROSS THE N FRI MORN. OTHERWISE...BRISK
AND COOL CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE PRES GRAD ON THE WEST
SIDE OF THE LOW PRES. BOTH LOW TEMPS THU AND HIGHS FRI WILL BE
RELATIVELY MILD...SINCE THE AIR MASS BEHIND THE LOW IS NOT ARCTIC
IN CHARACTER. MOST MODELS INDICATE SIG LLVL DRYING MOVING INTO THE
THE FA FRI NGT FROM QB PROV WITH THE APCH OF SFC HI PRES FROM
CNTRL CAN... SO WE WILL GO WITH CLRG THIS PD. IF THIS DRYING IS IN
ERROR...SKIES WILL REMAIN CLDY THRU SAT...WITH ANOTHER STRONG
SUBSIDENCE INVSN FORMING BY SAT MORN PREVENTING ANY LLVL MOISTURE
FROM LOFTING ABV 925 MB. BASED ON A FCST OF CLRG AND DIMINISHING
WINDS LATE...WE WILL GO WITH SOME MODEST VLY RADIATIONAL COOLING
OVRNGT LOWS FOR ERLY SAT MORN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ASSUMING THE LLVLS OF THE ATMOSPHERE DRY OUT FRI NGT...SAT SHOULD
BE MSLY SUNNY WITH LGT WINDS AS SFC HI PRES CROSSES THE REGION.
SAT NGT SHOULD BE FAIR...BUT WITH WINDS JUST ABV THE SFC TURNING
TO THE S BEHIND HIGH PRES DEPARTING VIA THE CAN MARITIMES...SOME
ST IS LIKELY TO ADVC NWRD INTO THE REGION FROM THE GULF OF ME...
SPCLY LATE AT NGT.

OTHERWISE...THE 00Z DTMNSTC GFS IS CONSIDERABLY DRIER THAN THE
CORRESPONDING 00Z ECMWF FOR SUN THRU MON...WITH THE GFS MUCH
WEAKER WITH S/WVS MOVING TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE MIDWEST FOR
BOTH LATE SUN AND AGAIN LATE SUN NGT THRU MON. TAKING A BLEND
BETWEEN BOTH MODELS RESULTS IN A FAIRLY LENGTHY PD OF CHC SN
POPS ACROSS CNTRL AND DOWNEAST AREAS FROM LATE SUN INTO MON NGT
WITH A CHC OF RN DURG DAY PDS ALG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. ACROSS THE
N...POPS MSLY REMAIN IN THE SLIGHT CHC CATEGORY.

GIVEN THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE LONG RANGE MODELS REGARDING THE
AMPLITUDE...PLACEMENT AND POTENTIAL IMPACT OF S/WVS FROM THE
MIDWEST...FCST CONFIDENCE IS CONSIDERED TO BE LOWER THAN AVG FOR
THIS PTN OF THE LONG RANGE. REGARDLESS OF THE OUTCOME MOST MODELS
AGREE THAT THE REGION SHOULD EXPERIENCE A BREAK ON TUE BEFORE A
POTENTIALLY MORE SIGNIFICANT LOW FROM THE MIDWEST APCHS THE REGION
ON WED. TEMPS IN THE LONG RANGE WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY MILD FOR
THIS TM OF SEASON...WITH NO ARCTIC AIR XPCTD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH
THE PERIOD DUE TO LOW CEILINGS AND RESTRICTED VISIBILITY IN
PRECIPITATION AND FOG. THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE RAIN AT KBHB AND
KBGR UNTIL MIXING WITH SNOW LATE TONIGHT. THE NORTHERN TERMINALS
WILL SEE A MIX OF SNOW, SLEET, AND FREEZING RAIN THROUGH THE DAY,
WITH KHUL AND PERHAPS KPQI CHANGING TO RAIN THIS AFTERNOON. THESE
SITES WILL THEN TRANSITION OVER TO SNOW OVERNIGHT.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: IFR CONDITIONS WITH CLGS AND VSBYS IN SN WILL
IMPROVE SLOWLY TO MVFR SW TO NE ACROSS THE TAF SITES THU AFTN AND
THU NGT...THEN TO VFR LATE THU NGT AND FRI MORN. AFTWRDS...ALL
SITES SHOULD REMAIN VFR FRI AFTN THRU SAT NGT...THEN PERHAPS LOWER
TO MVFR CLGS AND VSBYS IN LGT SN ON SUN ACROSS DOWNEAST SITES.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS PLACE FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT. WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS OF 30 KT AND SEAS OF 4 TO 7
FEET CAN BE EXPECTED.

SHORT TERM: WVS AND OR WINDS WILL REMAIN IN SCA CRITERIA INTO FRI
MORN...THEN SLOWLY SUBSIDE BLO CRITERIA FRI AFTN AND FRI NGT...
THEN REMAIN BLO SCA SAT AND SUN. KEPT CLOSE TO WW3 WV GUIDANCE FOR
FCST WV HTS THIS UPDATE.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 3 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR MEZ001-002.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MEZ003>006-010.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HASTINGS
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...HASTINGS/VJN
MARINE...HASTINGS/VJN




000
FXUS61 KGYX 170812
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
312 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF OF MAINE TODAY
AND START TO INTENSIFY THIS AFTERNOON...SPREADING RAIN AND SNOW
OVER THE REGION. BY THURSDAY MORNING THE LOW WILL BE OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND IT.
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A WEAK COASTAL STORM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
THAT MAY SPREAD SOME LIGHT SNOW INTO THE REGION. A MUCH STRONGER
STORM MAY AFFECT THE REGION MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM TONIGHT/...
LIGHT OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION ONGOING THIS MORNING AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS INTO THE AREA. WARM AIR ALOFT MOVING OVER AREAS OF
FREEZING AIR AT THE SURFACE HAS RESULTED IN PATCHY FREEZING RAIN.
OTHER LOCATIONS REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE
WITH A MIX OF PRECIPITATION EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS THESE AREAS
BEFORE ALL BUT THE FAR NORTHERN AREAS CHANGE OVER TO RAIN BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. NORTHERN NH AS WELL AS NORTHERN MAINE AND THE FOOTHILLS
REMAIN UNDER FREEZING RAIN AND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES
THROUGHOUT THE MORNING.

LOW PRESSURE FORMS ALONG THE COAST TODAY...SETTING UP A BAROCLINIC
ZONE NEAR THE LAND/SEA INTERFACE. EXPECT UPPER 30S AND 40S
AREAWIDE TODAY WITH THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES JUST SOUTH OF THIS
BOUNDARY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THE COASTAL SURFACE LOW UNDERGOES RAPID DEEPENING... MOVING NE
AND DRAWING COLD AIR INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY. STRONG UPPER LEVEL CANON BALL LOW PRESSURE CLOSING OFF
OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL PROVIDE PLENTY OF LIFT AND DYNAMICS
FOR A HEAVY SNOWFALL AS IT EXITS THE AREA. IN FACT...NORTHERN
OXFORD...NORTHERN FRANKLIN AND CENTRAL SOMERSET REMAIN IN AN
ADVISORY THROUGH LATE VERY LATE TONIGHT AS THE DOMINANT P TYPE
CHANGES TO SNOW. THE POSSIBILITY OF STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS AT OR
ABOVE HALF A FOOT IS ESPECIALLY LIKELY THE FARTHER NE YOU GO.
SOMERSET COUNTY WILL LIKELY GET THESE AMOUNTS BUT WOULD NEED MORE
THAN 9" IN 24 HRS TO WARRANT A WARNING...AND CONFIDENCE WAS NOT
HIGH ENOUGH IN THIS SCENARIO.

RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TAPER OFF TOMORROW FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY. TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE
LESS THAN 2" SOUTH OF THE MOUNTAINS AS THE SNOW MIXES WITH RAIN AT
TIMES. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH THE 40S ALONG THE COAST AND
SOUTH WITH LOWER TO MID 30S NORTH AND EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
START OFF THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES AND CONTINUING TO PULL OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE AND FAIR WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING. MODELS THEN DIVERGE AFTER SUNDAY. THE GFS AND GEM SHOW A
WEAK COASTAL LOW FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE 00Z GFS
NOW DEVELOPS THE LOW SOUTH AND EAST OF NOVA SCOTIA...PUTTING IT
TOO FAR OUT TO HAVE REALLY ANY IMPACT...BUT IT DOES HAVE AN
INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING BACK TO MAINE THAT MAY BRING SOME LIGHT
SNOW TO THE AREA. THE GEFS MEAN SHOWS A SIMILAR SOLUTION AS THE
OPERATIONAL GFS WITH ONLY SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW. THE GEM DEVELOPS
THE LOW IN A SIMILAR LOCATION AS THE GFS...YET ITS A BIT FURTHER
EAST AND A LITTLE DEEPER. THE GEM ALSO SHOWS THE INVERTED TROF
REACHING BACK TO MAINE...BUT IT IS MORE AMPLIFIED THAN THE GFS.
DEPENDING ON THE AXIS OF THIS TROF...SOME AREAS WOULD SEE A
PLOWABLE SNOWFALL.

THE 00Z EURO COMPLETELY LOST THE SYSTEM AND INSTEAD DEVELOPS A
COASTAL LOW SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND MONDAY NIGHT AND TRACKS IT INTO
THE GULF OF MAINE BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. AT THIS TIME WITH THE
UNCERTAINTY...I WENT WITH JUST CHANCE POP FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
AND SLIGHT CHANCE FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH STILL VERY
LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS FORECAST.

FINALLY THE EURO AND GFS ARE STILL SHOWING A LARGE STORM FOR
CHRISTMAS EVE AND/OR CHRISTMAS DAY...HOWEVER WHERE IT WILL BE AND
TRACK TO IS STILL ANYONES GUESS. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
POTENTIAL OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THERE IS ALREADY A LOT OF
RUN TO RUN DISCONTINUITY COMING WITH THE LOCATION OF THE LOW AND
THIS FAR OUT THAT IS EXPECTED...AS BOTH MODELS JUST WENT FROM A
COASTAL LOW WITH THE 12Z RUNS TO A WARM CUTTER WITH THE 00Z RUNS.
SO ALL WE CAN DO AT THIS TIME IS SEE HOW IT EVOLVES AS WE HEAD
INTO NEXT WEEK...AS THE ENERGY TO DEVELOP THIS STORM WILL NOT EVEN
BE SAMPLED WITH REAL DATA FOR SEVERAL DAYS YET.


&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM...DETERIORATION TO IFR AND LIFR ALREADY OCCURRING IN
DRIZZLE...RAIN...SNOW...AND FOG. SLIGHT CHC FOR SOME FZRA AT KLEB
AND KHIE. THE IFR/LIFR PERSISTS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. SOME
IMPROVEMENT TO CEILINGS TO IFR THIS AFTERNOON BUT PRECIPITATION
EVENT CONTINUES AND WILL KEEP CONDITIONS FROM BECOMING MVFR.
EXPECT WORSENING CONDITIONS IN WIDESPREAD SNOW AS TEMPERATURES
DROP AT NIGHT.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS MOST AREAS
WITH POSSIBLE MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS IN THE MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT
THURSDAY. SHOULD BE MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY
MORNING AND THEN THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOWER CONDITIONS DUE
TO A WEAK COASTAL LOW THAT COULD PROVIDE LIGHT SNOW OR WINTRY MIX
SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY BUT SHOULD BE
A QUIET PERIOD TONIGHT BEFORE WIND GUSTS PICKUP AGAIN TOMORROW
MORNING. WHETHER THIS WILL BE TAKEN ADVANTAGE OF OR THE ENTIRE
TIME FRAME BRIDGED WITH AN ADVISORY HAS BEEN LEFT TO THE
SUBSEQUENT SHIFT.

LONG TERM...SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEPARTS TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE WATERS.
CONDITIONS WILL THEN SUBSIDE. SCA COULD BE POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY DEPENDING WHERE A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE TRACK AND
INTENSITY...HOWEVER AT THE MOMENT IT APPEARS IT WILL NOT INTENSIFY
UNTIL IT GETS UP INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR MEZ007-012-013.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MEZ008-009-
     014.
NH...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NHZ001-002-004.
     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NHZ003-
     005.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ150-
     152-154.

&&

$$

HANES/KISTNER



000
FXUS61 KGYX 170812
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
312 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF OF MAINE TODAY
AND START TO INTENSIFY THIS AFTERNOON...SPREADING RAIN AND SNOW
OVER THE REGION. BY THURSDAY MORNING THE LOW WILL BE OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND IT.
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A WEAK COASTAL STORM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
THAT MAY SPREAD SOME LIGHT SNOW INTO THE REGION. A MUCH STRONGER
STORM MAY AFFECT THE REGION MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM TONIGHT/...
LIGHT OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION ONGOING THIS MORNING AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS INTO THE AREA. WARM AIR ALOFT MOVING OVER AREAS OF
FREEZING AIR AT THE SURFACE HAS RESULTED IN PATCHY FREEZING RAIN.
OTHER LOCATIONS REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE
WITH A MIX OF PRECIPITATION EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS THESE AREAS
BEFORE ALL BUT THE FAR NORTHERN AREAS CHANGE OVER TO RAIN BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. NORTHERN NH AS WELL AS NORTHERN MAINE AND THE FOOTHILLS
REMAIN UNDER FREEZING RAIN AND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES
THROUGHOUT THE MORNING.

LOW PRESSURE FORMS ALONG THE COAST TODAY...SETTING UP A BAROCLINIC
ZONE NEAR THE LAND/SEA INTERFACE. EXPECT UPPER 30S AND 40S
AREAWIDE TODAY WITH THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES JUST SOUTH OF THIS
BOUNDARY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THE COASTAL SURFACE LOW UNDERGOES RAPID DEEPENING... MOVING NE
AND DRAWING COLD AIR INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY. STRONG UPPER LEVEL CANON BALL LOW PRESSURE CLOSING OFF
OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL PROVIDE PLENTY OF LIFT AND DYNAMICS
FOR A HEAVY SNOWFALL AS IT EXITS THE AREA. IN FACT...NORTHERN
OXFORD...NORTHERN FRANKLIN AND CENTRAL SOMERSET REMAIN IN AN
ADVISORY THROUGH LATE VERY LATE TONIGHT AS THE DOMINANT P TYPE
CHANGES TO SNOW. THE POSSIBILITY OF STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS AT OR
ABOVE HALF A FOOT IS ESPECIALLY LIKELY THE FARTHER NE YOU GO.
SOMERSET COUNTY WILL LIKELY GET THESE AMOUNTS BUT WOULD NEED MORE
THAN 9" IN 24 HRS TO WARRANT A WARNING...AND CONFIDENCE WAS NOT
HIGH ENOUGH IN THIS SCENARIO.

RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TAPER OFF TOMORROW FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY. TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE
LESS THAN 2" SOUTH OF THE MOUNTAINS AS THE SNOW MIXES WITH RAIN AT
TIMES. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH THE 40S ALONG THE COAST AND
SOUTH WITH LOWER TO MID 30S NORTH AND EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
START OFF THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES AND CONTINUING TO PULL OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE AND FAIR WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING. MODELS THEN DIVERGE AFTER SUNDAY. THE GFS AND GEM SHOW A
WEAK COASTAL LOW FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE 00Z GFS
NOW DEVELOPS THE LOW SOUTH AND EAST OF NOVA SCOTIA...PUTTING IT
TOO FAR OUT TO HAVE REALLY ANY IMPACT...BUT IT DOES HAVE AN
INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING BACK TO MAINE THAT MAY BRING SOME LIGHT
SNOW TO THE AREA. THE GEFS MEAN SHOWS A SIMILAR SOLUTION AS THE
OPERATIONAL GFS WITH ONLY SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW. THE GEM DEVELOPS
THE LOW IN A SIMILAR LOCATION AS THE GFS...YET ITS A BIT FURTHER
EAST AND A LITTLE DEEPER. THE GEM ALSO SHOWS THE INVERTED TROF
REACHING BACK TO MAINE...BUT IT IS MORE AMPLIFIED THAN THE GFS.
DEPENDING ON THE AXIS OF THIS TROF...SOME AREAS WOULD SEE A
PLOWABLE SNOWFALL.

THE 00Z EURO COMPLETELY LOST THE SYSTEM AND INSTEAD DEVELOPS A
COASTAL LOW SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND MONDAY NIGHT AND TRACKS IT INTO
THE GULF OF MAINE BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. AT THIS TIME WITH THE
UNCERTAINTY...I WENT WITH JUST CHANCE POP FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
AND SLIGHT CHANCE FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH STILL VERY
LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS FORECAST.

FINALLY THE EURO AND GFS ARE STILL SHOWING A LARGE STORM FOR
CHRISTMAS EVE AND/OR CHRISTMAS DAY...HOWEVER WHERE IT WILL BE AND
TRACK TO IS STILL ANYONES GUESS. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
POTENTIAL OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THERE IS ALREADY A LOT OF
RUN TO RUN DISCONTINUITY COMING WITH THE LOCATION OF THE LOW AND
THIS FAR OUT THAT IS EXPECTED...AS BOTH MODELS JUST WENT FROM A
COASTAL LOW WITH THE 12Z RUNS TO A WARM CUTTER WITH THE 00Z RUNS.
SO ALL WE CAN DO AT THIS TIME IS SEE HOW IT EVOLVES AS WE HEAD
INTO NEXT WEEK...AS THE ENERGY TO DEVELOP THIS STORM WILL NOT EVEN
BE SAMPLED WITH REAL DATA FOR SEVERAL DAYS YET.


&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM...DETERIORATION TO IFR AND LIFR ALREADY OCCURRING IN
DRIZZLE...RAIN...SNOW...AND FOG. SLIGHT CHC FOR SOME FZRA AT KLEB
AND KHIE. THE IFR/LIFR PERSISTS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. SOME
IMPROVEMENT TO CEILINGS TO IFR THIS AFTERNOON BUT PRECIPITATION
EVENT CONTINUES AND WILL KEEP CONDITIONS FROM BECOMING MVFR.
EXPECT WORSENING CONDITIONS IN WIDESPREAD SNOW AS TEMPERATURES
DROP AT NIGHT.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS MOST AREAS
WITH POSSIBLE MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS IN THE MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT
THURSDAY. SHOULD BE MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY
MORNING AND THEN THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOWER CONDITIONS DUE
TO A WEAK COASTAL LOW THAT COULD PROVIDE LIGHT SNOW OR WINTRY MIX
SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY BUT SHOULD BE
A QUIET PERIOD TONIGHT BEFORE WIND GUSTS PICKUP AGAIN TOMORROW
MORNING. WHETHER THIS WILL BE TAKEN ADVANTAGE OF OR THE ENTIRE
TIME FRAME BRIDGED WITH AN ADVISORY HAS BEEN LEFT TO THE
SUBSEQUENT SHIFT.

LONG TERM...SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEPARTS TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE WATERS.
CONDITIONS WILL THEN SUBSIDE. SCA COULD BE POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY DEPENDING WHERE A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE TRACK AND
INTENSITY...HOWEVER AT THE MOMENT IT APPEARS IT WILL NOT INTENSIFY
UNTIL IT GETS UP INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR MEZ007-012-013.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MEZ008-009-
     014.
NH...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NHZ001-002-004.
     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NHZ003-
     005.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ150-
     152-154.

&&

$$

HANES/KISTNER




000
FXUS61 KGYX 170812
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
312 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF OF MAINE TODAY
AND START TO INTENSIFY THIS AFTERNOON...SPREADING RAIN AND SNOW
OVER THE REGION. BY THURSDAY MORNING THE LOW WILL BE OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND IT.
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A WEAK COASTAL STORM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
THAT MAY SPREAD SOME LIGHT SNOW INTO THE REGION. A MUCH STRONGER
STORM MAY AFFECT THE REGION MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM TONIGHT/...
LIGHT OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION ONGOING THIS MORNING AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS INTO THE AREA. WARM AIR ALOFT MOVING OVER AREAS OF
FREEZING AIR AT THE SURFACE HAS RESULTED IN PATCHY FREEZING RAIN.
OTHER LOCATIONS REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE
WITH A MIX OF PRECIPITATION EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS THESE AREAS
BEFORE ALL BUT THE FAR NORTHERN AREAS CHANGE OVER TO RAIN BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. NORTHERN NH AS WELL AS NORTHERN MAINE AND THE FOOTHILLS
REMAIN UNDER FREEZING RAIN AND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES
THROUGHOUT THE MORNING.

LOW PRESSURE FORMS ALONG THE COAST TODAY...SETTING UP A BAROCLINIC
ZONE NEAR THE LAND/SEA INTERFACE. EXPECT UPPER 30S AND 40S
AREAWIDE TODAY WITH THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES JUST SOUTH OF THIS
BOUNDARY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THE COASTAL SURFACE LOW UNDERGOES RAPID DEEPENING... MOVING NE
AND DRAWING COLD AIR INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY. STRONG UPPER LEVEL CANON BALL LOW PRESSURE CLOSING OFF
OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL PROVIDE PLENTY OF LIFT AND DYNAMICS
FOR A HEAVY SNOWFALL AS IT EXITS THE AREA. IN FACT...NORTHERN
OXFORD...NORTHERN FRANKLIN AND CENTRAL SOMERSET REMAIN IN AN
ADVISORY THROUGH LATE VERY LATE TONIGHT AS THE DOMINANT P TYPE
CHANGES TO SNOW. THE POSSIBILITY OF STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS AT OR
ABOVE HALF A FOOT IS ESPECIALLY LIKELY THE FARTHER NE YOU GO.
SOMERSET COUNTY WILL LIKELY GET THESE AMOUNTS BUT WOULD NEED MORE
THAN 9" IN 24 HRS TO WARRANT A WARNING...AND CONFIDENCE WAS NOT
HIGH ENOUGH IN THIS SCENARIO.

RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TAPER OFF TOMORROW FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY. TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE
LESS THAN 2" SOUTH OF THE MOUNTAINS AS THE SNOW MIXES WITH RAIN AT
TIMES. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH THE 40S ALONG THE COAST AND
SOUTH WITH LOWER TO MID 30S NORTH AND EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
START OFF THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES AND CONTINUING TO PULL OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE AND FAIR WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING. MODELS THEN DIVERGE AFTER SUNDAY. THE GFS AND GEM SHOW A
WEAK COASTAL LOW FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE 00Z GFS
NOW DEVELOPS THE LOW SOUTH AND EAST OF NOVA SCOTIA...PUTTING IT
TOO FAR OUT TO HAVE REALLY ANY IMPACT...BUT IT DOES HAVE AN
INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING BACK TO MAINE THAT MAY BRING SOME LIGHT
SNOW TO THE AREA. THE GEFS MEAN SHOWS A SIMILAR SOLUTION AS THE
OPERATIONAL GFS WITH ONLY SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW. THE GEM DEVELOPS
THE LOW IN A SIMILAR LOCATION AS THE GFS...YET ITS A BIT FURTHER
EAST AND A LITTLE DEEPER. THE GEM ALSO SHOWS THE INVERTED TROF
REACHING BACK TO MAINE...BUT IT IS MORE AMPLIFIED THAN THE GFS.
DEPENDING ON THE AXIS OF THIS TROF...SOME AREAS WOULD SEE A
PLOWABLE SNOWFALL.

THE 00Z EURO COMPLETELY LOST THE SYSTEM AND INSTEAD DEVELOPS A
COASTAL LOW SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND MONDAY NIGHT AND TRACKS IT INTO
THE GULF OF MAINE BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. AT THIS TIME WITH THE
UNCERTAINTY...I WENT WITH JUST CHANCE POP FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
AND SLIGHT CHANCE FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH STILL VERY
LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS FORECAST.

FINALLY THE EURO AND GFS ARE STILL SHOWING A LARGE STORM FOR
CHRISTMAS EVE AND/OR CHRISTMAS DAY...HOWEVER WHERE IT WILL BE AND
TRACK TO IS STILL ANYONES GUESS. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
POTENTIAL OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THERE IS ALREADY A LOT OF
RUN TO RUN DISCONTINUITY COMING WITH THE LOCATION OF THE LOW AND
THIS FAR OUT THAT IS EXPECTED...AS BOTH MODELS JUST WENT FROM A
COASTAL LOW WITH THE 12Z RUNS TO A WARM CUTTER WITH THE 00Z RUNS.
SO ALL WE CAN DO AT THIS TIME IS SEE HOW IT EVOLVES AS WE HEAD
INTO NEXT WEEK...AS THE ENERGY TO DEVELOP THIS STORM WILL NOT EVEN
BE SAMPLED WITH REAL DATA FOR SEVERAL DAYS YET.


&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM...DETERIORATION TO IFR AND LIFR ALREADY OCCURRING IN
DRIZZLE...RAIN...SNOW...AND FOG. SLIGHT CHC FOR SOME FZRA AT KLEB
AND KHIE. THE IFR/LIFR PERSISTS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. SOME
IMPROVEMENT TO CEILINGS TO IFR THIS AFTERNOON BUT PRECIPITATION
EVENT CONTINUES AND WILL KEEP CONDITIONS FROM BECOMING MVFR.
EXPECT WORSENING CONDITIONS IN WIDESPREAD SNOW AS TEMPERATURES
DROP AT NIGHT.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS MOST AREAS
WITH POSSIBLE MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS IN THE MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT
THURSDAY. SHOULD BE MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY
MORNING AND THEN THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOWER CONDITIONS DUE
TO A WEAK COASTAL LOW THAT COULD PROVIDE LIGHT SNOW OR WINTRY MIX
SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY BUT SHOULD BE
A QUIET PERIOD TONIGHT BEFORE WIND GUSTS PICKUP AGAIN TOMORROW
MORNING. WHETHER THIS WILL BE TAKEN ADVANTAGE OF OR THE ENTIRE
TIME FRAME BRIDGED WITH AN ADVISORY HAS BEEN LEFT TO THE
SUBSEQUENT SHIFT.

LONG TERM...SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEPARTS TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE WATERS.
CONDITIONS WILL THEN SUBSIDE. SCA COULD BE POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY DEPENDING WHERE A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE TRACK AND
INTENSITY...HOWEVER AT THE MOMENT IT APPEARS IT WILL NOT INTENSIFY
UNTIL IT GETS UP INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR MEZ007-012-013.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MEZ008-009-
     014.
NH...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NHZ001-002-004.
     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NHZ003-
     005.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ150-
     152-154.

&&

$$

HANES/KISTNER



000
FXUS61 KGYX 170812
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
312 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF OF MAINE TODAY
AND START TO INTENSIFY THIS AFTERNOON...SPREADING RAIN AND SNOW
OVER THE REGION. BY THURSDAY MORNING THE LOW WILL BE OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND IT.
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A WEAK COASTAL STORM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
THAT MAY SPREAD SOME LIGHT SNOW INTO THE REGION. A MUCH STRONGER
STORM MAY AFFECT THE REGION MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM TONIGHT/...
LIGHT OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION ONGOING THIS MORNING AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS INTO THE AREA. WARM AIR ALOFT MOVING OVER AREAS OF
FREEZING AIR AT THE SURFACE HAS RESULTED IN PATCHY FREEZING RAIN.
OTHER LOCATIONS REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE
WITH A MIX OF PRECIPITATION EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS THESE AREAS
BEFORE ALL BUT THE FAR NORTHERN AREAS CHANGE OVER TO RAIN BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. NORTHERN NH AS WELL AS NORTHERN MAINE AND THE FOOTHILLS
REMAIN UNDER FREEZING RAIN AND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES
THROUGHOUT THE MORNING.

LOW PRESSURE FORMS ALONG THE COAST TODAY...SETTING UP A BAROCLINIC
ZONE NEAR THE LAND/SEA INTERFACE. EXPECT UPPER 30S AND 40S
AREAWIDE TODAY WITH THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES JUST SOUTH OF THIS
BOUNDARY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THE COASTAL SURFACE LOW UNDERGOES RAPID DEEPENING... MOVING NE
AND DRAWING COLD AIR INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY. STRONG UPPER LEVEL CANON BALL LOW PRESSURE CLOSING OFF
OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL PROVIDE PLENTY OF LIFT AND DYNAMICS
FOR A HEAVY SNOWFALL AS IT EXITS THE AREA. IN FACT...NORTHERN
OXFORD...NORTHERN FRANKLIN AND CENTRAL SOMERSET REMAIN IN AN
ADVISORY THROUGH LATE VERY LATE TONIGHT AS THE DOMINANT P TYPE
CHANGES TO SNOW. THE POSSIBILITY OF STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS AT OR
ABOVE HALF A FOOT IS ESPECIALLY LIKELY THE FARTHER NE YOU GO.
SOMERSET COUNTY WILL LIKELY GET THESE AMOUNTS BUT WOULD NEED MORE
THAN 9" IN 24 HRS TO WARRANT A WARNING...AND CONFIDENCE WAS NOT
HIGH ENOUGH IN THIS SCENARIO.

RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TAPER OFF TOMORROW FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY. TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE
LESS THAN 2" SOUTH OF THE MOUNTAINS AS THE SNOW MIXES WITH RAIN AT
TIMES. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH THE 40S ALONG THE COAST AND
SOUTH WITH LOWER TO MID 30S NORTH AND EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
START OFF THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES AND CONTINUING TO PULL OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE AND FAIR WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING. MODELS THEN DIVERGE AFTER SUNDAY. THE GFS AND GEM SHOW A
WEAK COASTAL LOW FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE 00Z GFS
NOW DEVELOPS THE LOW SOUTH AND EAST OF NOVA SCOTIA...PUTTING IT
TOO FAR OUT TO HAVE REALLY ANY IMPACT...BUT IT DOES HAVE AN
INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING BACK TO MAINE THAT MAY BRING SOME LIGHT
SNOW TO THE AREA. THE GEFS MEAN SHOWS A SIMILAR SOLUTION AS THE
OPERATIONAL GFS WITH ONLY SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW. THE GEM DEVELOPS
THE LOW IN A SIMILAR LOCATION AS THE GFS...YET ITS A BIT FURTHER
EAST AND A LITTLE DEEPER. THE GEM ALSO SHOWS THE INVERTED TROF
REACHING BACK TO MAINE...BUT IT IS MORE AMPLIFIED THAN THE GFS.
DEPENDING ON THE AXIS OF THIS TROF...SOME AREAS WOULD SEE A
PLOWABLE SNOWFALL.

THE 00Z EURO COMPLETELY LOST THE SYSTEM AND INSTEAD DEVELOPS A
COASTAL LOW SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND MONDAY NIGHT AND TRACKS IT INTO
THE GULF OF MAINE BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. AT THIS TIME WITH THE
UNCERTAINTY...I WENT WITH JUST CHANCE POP FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
AND SLIGHT CHANCE FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH STILL VERY
LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS FORECAST.

FINALLY THE EURO AND GFS ARE STILL SHOWING A LARGE STORM FOR
CHRISTMAS EVE AND/OR CHRISTMAS DAY...HOWEVER WHERE IT WILL BE AND
TRACK TO IS STILL ANYONES GUESS. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
POTENTIAL OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THERE IS ALREADY A LOT OF
RUN TO RUN DISCONTINUITY COMING WITH THE LOCATION OF THE LOW AND
THIS FAR OUT THAT IS EXPECTED...AS BOTH MODELS JUST WENT FROM A
COASTAL LOW WITH THE 12Z RUNS TO A WARM CUTTER WITH THE 00Z RUNS.
SO ALL WE CAN DO AT THIS TIME IS SEE HOW IT EVOLVES AS WE HEAD
INTO NEXT WEEK...AS THE ENERGY TO DEVELOP THIS STORM WILL NOT EVEN
BE SAMPLED WITH REAL DATA FOR SEVERAL DAYS YET.


&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM...DETERIORATION TO IFR AND LIFR ALREADY OCCURRING IN
DRIZZLE...RAIN...SNOW...AND FOG. SLIGHT CHC FOR SOME FZRA AT KLEB
AND KHIE. THE IFR/LIFR PERSISTS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. SOME
IMPROVEMENT TO CEILINGS TO IFR THIS AFTERNOON BUT PRECIPITATION
EVENT CONTINUES AND WILL KEEP CONDITIONS FROM BECOMING MVFR.
EXPECT WORSENING CONDITIONS IN WIDESPREAD SNOW AS TEMPERATURES
DROP AT NIGHT.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS MOST AREAS
WITH POSSIBLE MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS IN THE MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT
THURSDAY. SHOULD BE MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY
MORNING AND THEN THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOWER CONDITIONS DUE
TO A WEAK COASTAL LOW THAT COULD PROVIDE LIGHT SNOW OR WINTRY MIX
SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY BUT SHOULD BE
A QUIET PERIOD TONIGHT BEFORE WIND GUSTS PICKUP AGAIN TOMORROW
MORNING. WHETHER THIS WILL BE TAKEN ADVANTAGE OF OR THE ENTIRE
TIME FRAME BRIDGED WITH AN ADVISORY HAS BEEN LEFT TO THE
SUBSEQUENT SHIFT.

LONG TERM...SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEPARTS TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE WATERS.
CONDITIONS WILL THEN SUBSIDE. SCA COULD BE POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY DEPENDING WHERE A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE TRACK AND
INTENSITY...HOWEVER AT THE MOMENT IT APPEARS IT WILL NOT INTENSIFY
UNTIL IT GETS UP INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR MEZ007-012-013.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MEZ008-009-
     014.
NH...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NHZ001-002-004.
     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NHZ003-
     005.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ150-
     152-154.

&&

$$

HANES/KISTNER




000
FXUS61 KCAR 170510
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1210 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE REGION WEDNESDAY...THEN TRACK
ACROSS DOWNEAST MAINE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1210 AM UPDATE...CHANGES FOR THIS UPDATE WERE MAINLY COSMETIC IN
NATURE. MUCH OF THE REGION IS REPORTING LIGHT SNOW OR FREEZING
DRIZZLE/FOG. LITTLE TO NO SNOW OR ICE ACCUMULATION EXPECTED
THROUGH DAYBREAK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A TOUGH FORECAST UPCOMING FOR A WINTER
EVENT. THIS EVENT WILL BE DRAWN OUT OVER 36 HR GOING INTO THURSDAY
W/2 WAVES OF PRECIP.

LOW PRES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL WEAKEN AS A SECOND LOW
DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST AND TRACKS NE. WAA
ALOFT IS UNDERWAY ATTM AND TEMPS ACROSS THE DOWNEAST AND COAST
HAVE WARMED INTO THE LOW AND MID 30S. FURTHER N. TEMPS HAVE BEEN
SLOWER TO WARM THANKS IN PART TO SOME SHALLOW COLD AIR DAMMING
W/HIGH PRES TO THE NE. THIS WILL PLAY TO HOW THINGS SETUP
OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. SOME LIGHT SNOW HAD BROKEN EARLY TODAY
W/SOME WEAK FORCING ALOFT. THE MOST PROMINENT AND SUBSTANTIAL
PRECIP WILL SET UP TONIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY. THE NAM
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN VERIFYING QUITE WELL W/ITS TEMPERATURES IN THE
BLYR AND SYNOPTIC SETUP W/KEEPING COLDER AIR IN PLACE ACROSS THE
NORTH W/THE HIGH TO THE NORTH AND LOW PRES TO THE SOUTH.

LIGHT PRECIP TONIGHT WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTH. SOUNDING
PROFILES INDICATE LIGHT SNOW AND SLEET ACROSS THE NORTH AND
CENTRAL AREAS INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. ACROSS THE INTERIOR
DOWNEAST AND COAST, LIGHT SNOW OR SLEET GOING TO PERIOD OF LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE EARLY TONIGHT AND THEN TO JUST RAIN BY LATE
NIGHT AS TEMPERATURES WARM WELL INTO THE 30S. ACROSS THE NORTH AND
CENTRAL AREAS, FROZEN/FREEZING PRECIP WILL HANG ON RIGHT INTO
MIDDAY TUESDAY W/WAA EXPECTED TO REACH THE HOULTON-MILLINOCKET
REGION BY EARLY AFTERNOON W/RAIN. ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES, FROM
CARIBOU-PRESQUE ISLE, MIXED SNOW/SLEET GOING TO FREEZING
RAIN/SLEET INTO MID AFTERNOON W/SOME SLEET AND ICE ACCUMULATION.
AS THE LOW TRAVELS ACROSS THE COAST OF MAINE TOWARD THE BAY OF
FUNDY BY WEDNESDAY EVENING, CAA WILL WRAP BACK IN TO ALLOW PRECIP
TO GO TO SNOW AS FAR SOUTH AS HOULTON AND MILLINOCKET W/SOME SNOW
ACCUMULATION OF 1-2 INCHES BY EARLY EVENING. ICE ACCUMULATIONS
ACROSS THE NORTH- CENTRAL AREAS WILL BE TRICKY AS SLEET TRANSITION
COULD BE QUICKER CUTTING DOWN ON THE ICING. ATTM, ICE
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO 0.10-0.20 ACROSS THE PRESQUE ISLE-
HOULTON-SHERMAN AREA.

THEREFORE, WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT ACROSS THE
HOULTON-MILLINOCKET AND GREENVILLE REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR ICING POTENTIAL. ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AREAS FROM CARIBOU- PRESQUE ISLE NORTH TO THE ST. JOHN
VALLEY, THE ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY RIGHT INTO
THURSDAY FOR A COMBINATION OF SNOW/SLEET ACCUMULATION OF 6-10
INCHES AND LIGHT ICING. THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS SUCH AS THE LINCOLN
AND DOVER-FOXCROFT WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED AS ANY PROLONGED
FREEZING RAIN COULD LEAD TO SOME ICING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE
CONFIDENCE FOR THIS IS LOW ATTM. THE MIDNIGHT CREW CAN ASSESS THIS
POTENTIAL FURTHER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF OF MAINE DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY AND BECOME THE PRIMARY SYSTEM AS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES FILLS. THE PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE IN THE
FORM OF A MIXTURE OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN WEDNESDAY EVENING
WITH WARM AIR IN THE MID LEVELS AND COLD AIR REMAINS NEAR THE
SURFACE. AS THE GREAT LAKES LOW FILLS AND THE GULF OF MAINE LOW
BECOMES THE PRIMARY SYSTEM EXPECT THE WARM AIR AT MID LEVELS TO BE
CUT OFF AND COLD ADVECTION TO TAKE PLACE W/MIXED PRECIPITATION IN
THE NORTH AND CENTRAL AREAS TO CHANGE TO SNOW. THE SNOW WILL
CONTINUE THURSDAY MORNING THEN END LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE
LOW CENTER CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST INTO NOVA SCOTIA.
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO STAY MOSTLY AS RAIN IN THE SOUTH AND
ALONG THE COAST. FOR PRECIPITATION TYPE HAVE USED THE
PRECIPITATION FROM THICKNESS TOOL RUN ON A 50/50 BLEND OF THE NAM
AND GFS. FOR TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT WILL USE THE NAM12 WITH
INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE GULF OF MAINE. HAVE
USED THE NAM12 FOR WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD IN
FROM THE WEST FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE STATE SATURDAY THEN MOVE TO THE
EAST SUNDAY. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE TO
THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AND POSSIBLY BRING SOME
LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE STATE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE WEST AND CREST OVER THE STATE
TUESDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN APPROACH FROM THE WEST
WEDNESDAY. HAVE USED THE SUPER BLEND TO INITIALIZE GRIDS.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR LIFTING TO MVFR THIS EVENING AND THEN A RETURN BACK
TO IFR FOR ALL THE TERMINALS TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. SOME ICING
POTENTIAL IS THERE ESPECIALLY FOR THE NORTHERN TERMINALS.

SHORT TERM: EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR CONDITIONS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS WILL START PICKING UP ON WEDNESDAY W/SEAS
RESPONDING ACCORDINGLY. A 40 KT LLVL JET FROM SSE IS FORECAST TO
MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS ON WEDNESDAY. SOME CROSSING OF THE WINDS IS
THERE AS SURFACE WINDS OF 15-20 KTS ARE FORECAST TO BE OUT OF THE
ENE. SOME GUST POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR UP TO 30 KTS ESPECIALLY OUT
OVER THE OUTER WATERS. THEREFORE, DECIDED TO GO W/A SCA FOR WINDS
OF 15 TO 25 KTS AND SEAS APCHG 6 FT BY LATE WEDNESDAY. WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO DROP OFF WEDNESDAY EVENING AS THE LOW MOVES ACROSS THE
WATERS.

SHORT TERM: HAVE USED THE NAM12 FOR SUSTAINED WINDS. FOR WAVES:
PRIMARY WAVE SYSTEM LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY IS SOUTHEASTERLY
WAVES DEVELOPING IN FETCH AHEAD OF INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE THEN
TRANSITION TO OFF-SHORE WIND WAVES AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES TO THE
NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 3 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR MEZ001-002.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO 1 PM
     EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MEZ003>006-010.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HASTINGS/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...MIGNONE
LONG TERM...MIGNONE
AVIATION...HASTINGS/HEWITT/MIGNONE
MARINE...HASTINGS/HEWITT/MIGNONE




000
FXUS61 KCAR 170510
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1210 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE REGION WEDNESDAY...THEN TRACK
ACROSS DOWNEAST MAINE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1210 AM UPDATE...CHANGES FOR THIS UPDATE WERE MAINLY COSMETIC IN
NATURE. MUCH OF THE REGION IS REPORTING LIGHT SNOW OR FREEZING
DRIZZLE/FOG. LITTLE TO NO SNOW OR ICE ACCUMULATION EXPECTED
THROUGH DAYBREAK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A TOUGH FORECAST UPCOMING FOR A WINTER
EVENT. THIS EVENT WILL BE DRAWN OUT OVER 36 HR GOING INTO THURSDAY
W/2 WAVES OF PRECIP.

LOW PRES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL WEAKEN AS A SECOND LOW
DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST AND TRACKS NE. WAA
ALOFT IS UNDERWAY ATTM AND TEMPS ACROSS THE DOWNEAST AND COAST
HAVE WARMED INTO THE LOW AND MID 30S. FURTHER N. TEMPS HAVE BEEN
SLOWER TO WARM THANKS IN PART TO SOME SHALLOW COLD AIR DAMMING
W/HIGH PRES TO THE NE. THIS WILL PLAY TO HOW THINGS SETUP
OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. SOME LIGHT SNOW HAD BROKEN EARLY TODAY
W/SOME WEAK FORCING ALOFT. THE MOST PROMINENT AND SUBSTANTIAL
PRECIP WILL SET UP TONIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY. THE NAM
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN VERIFYING QUITE WELL W/ITS TEMPERATURES IN THE
BLYR AND SYNOPTIC SETUP W/KEEPING COLDER AIR IN PLACE ACROSS THE
NORTH W/THE HIGH TO THE NORTH AND LOW PRES TO THE SOUTH.

LIGHT PRECIP TONIGHT WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTH. SOUNDING
PROFILES INDICATE LIGHT SNOW AND SLEET ACROSS THE NORTH AND
CENTRAL AREAS INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. ACROSS THE INTERIOR
DOWNEAST AND COAST, LIGHT SNOW OR SLEET GOING TO PERIOD OF LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE EARLY TONIGHT AND THEN TO JUST RAIN BY LATE
NIGHT AS TEMPERATURES WARM WELL INTO THE 30S. ACROSS THE NORTH AND
CENTRAL AREAS, FROZEN/FREEZING PRECIP WILL HANG ON RIGHT INTO
MIDDAY TUESDAY W/WAA EXPECTED TO REACH THE HOULTON-MILLINOCKET
REGION BY EARLY AFTERNOON W/RAIN. ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES, FROM
CARIBOU-PRESQUE ISLE, MIXED SNOW/SLEET GOING TO FREEZING
RAIN/SLEET INTO MID AFTERNOON W/SOME SLEET AND ICE ACCUMULATION.
AS THE LOW TRAVELS ACROSS THE COAST OF MAINE TOWARD THE BAY OF
FUNDY BY WEDNESDAY EVENING, CAA WILL WRAP BACK IN TO ALLOW PRECIP
TO GO TO SNOW AS FAR SOUTH AS HOULTON AND MILLINOCKET W/SOME SNOW
ACCUMULATION OF 1-2 INCHES BY EARLY EVENING. ICE ACCUMULATIONS
ACROSS THE NORTH- CENTRAL AREAS WILL BE TRICKY AS SLEET TRANSITION
COULD BE QUICKER CUTTING DOWN ON THE ICING. ATTM, ICE
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO 0.10-0.20 ACROSS THE PRESQUE ISLE-
HOULTON-SHERMAN AREA.

THEREFORE, WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT ACROSS THE
HOULTON-MILLINOCKET AND GREENVILLE REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR ICING POTENTIAL. ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AREAS FROM CARIBOU- PRESQUE ISLE NORTH TO THE ST. JOHN
VALLEY, THE ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY RIGHT INTO
THURSDAY FOR A COMBINATION OF SNOW/SLEET ACCUMULATION OF 6-10
INCHES AND LIGHT ICING. THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS SUCH AS THE LINCOLN
AND DOVER-FOXCROFT WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED AS ANY PROLONGED
FREEZING RAIN COULD LEAD TO SOME ICING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE
CONFIDENCE FOR THIS IS LOW ATTM. THE MIDNIGHT CREW CAN ASSESS THIS
POTENTIAL FURTHER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF OF MAINE DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY AND BECOME THE PRIMARY SYSTEM AS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES FILLS. THE PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE IN THE
FORM OF A MIXTURE OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN WEDNESDAY EVENING
WITH WARM AIR IN THE MID LEVELS AND COLD AIR REMAINS NEAR THE
SURFACE. AS THE GREAT LAKES LOW FILLS AND THE GULF OF MAINE LOW
BECOMES THE PRIMARY SYSTEM EXPECT THE WARM AIR AT MID LEVELS TO BE
CUT OFF AND COLD ADVECTION TO TAKE PLACE W/MIXED PRECIPITATION IN
THE NORTH AND CENTRAL AREAS TO CHANGE TO SNOW. THE SNOW WILL
CONTINUE THURSDAY MORNING THEN END LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE
LOW CENTER CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST INTO NOVA SCOTIA.
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO STAY MOSTLY AS RAIN IN THE SOUTH AND
ALONG THE COAST. FOR PRECIPITATION TYPE HAVE USED THE
PRECIPITATION FROM THICKNESS TOOL RUN ON A 50/50 BLEND OF THE NAM
AND GFS. FOR TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT WILL USE THE NAM12 WITH
INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE GULF OF MAINE. HAVE
USED THE NAM12 FOR WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD IN
FROM THE WEST FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE STATE SATURDAY THEN MOVE TO THE
EAST SUNDAY. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE TO
THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AND POSSIBLY BRING SOME
LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE STATE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE WEST AND CREST OVER THE STATE
TUESDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN APPROACH FROM THE WEST
WEDNESDAY. HAVE USED THE SUPER BLEND TO INITIALIZE GRIDS.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR LIFTING TO MVFR THIS EVENING AND THEN A RETURN BACK
TO IFR FOR ALL THE TERMINALS TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. SOME ICING
POTENTIAL IS THERE ESPECIALLY FOR THE NORTHERN TERMINALS.

SHORT TERM: EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR CONDITIONS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS WILL START PICKING UP ON WEDNESDAY W/SEAS
RESPONDING ACCORDINGLY. A 40 KT LLVL JET FROM SSE IS FORECAST TO
MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS ON WEDNESDAY. SOME CROSSING OF THE WINDS IS
THERE AS SURFACE WINDS OF 15-20 KTS ARE FORECAST TO BE OUT OF THE
ENE. SOME GUST POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR UP TO 30 KTS ESPECIALLY OUT
OVER THE OUTER WATERS. THEREFORE, DECIDED TO GO W/A SCA FOR WINDS
OF 15 TO 25 KTS AND SEAS APCHG 6 FT BY LATE WEDNESDAY. WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO DROP OFF WEDNESDAY EVENING AS THE LOW MOVES ACROSS THE
WATERS.

SHORT TERM: HAVE USED THE NAM12 FOR SUSTAINED WINDS. FOR WAVES:
PRIMARY WAVE SYSTEM LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY IS SOUTHEASTERLY
WAVES DEVELOPING IN FETCH AHEAD OF INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE THEN
TRANSITION TO OFF-SHORE WIND WAVES AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES TO THE
NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 3 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR MEZ001-002.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO 1 PM
     EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MEZ003>006-010.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HASTINGS/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...MIGNONE
LONG TERM...MIGNONE
AVIATION...HASTINGS/HEWITT/MIGNONE
MARINE...HASTINGS/HEWITT/MIGNONE



000
FXUS61 KGYX 170346
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1046 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND NEW YORK
TONIGHT INTO THE GULF OF MAINE ON WEDNESDAY. THE LOW WILL MOVE
AWAY FROM THE REGION ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE REGION TOWARD THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND. ATTENTION WILL
THEN TURN TO A POTENTIAL WEAK COASTAL STORM WHICH WILL MOVE OFF
THE EAST COAST LATE IN THE WEEKEND. A STRONGER STORM COULD AFFECT
THE REGION MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...

1045 PM...I ADJUSTED 1ST PERIOD GRIDS TO REFLECT THE 03Z MESONET
FOR THIS ESTF UPDATE.

PREV DISC...
745 PM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO 1ST PERIOD GRIDS TO INGEST CURRENT
MESONET.

PREV DISC...
WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH SFC LOW OVER GREAT LAKES MOVING IN FROM
THE SW ATTM. WILL SEE NEW SFC LOW DEVELOP ALONG THIS FRONT TO OUR
S OVERNIGHT OCCLUDING IT. AREAS OF DZ AND SOME VERY LIGHT SN WILL
EVENTUALLY SHIFT TO A STEADIER PRECIP FROM SW TO NE THIS NE AS
WARM ADVECTION PROCESS BEGIN TO PRODUCE STEADIER PRECIP. P-TYPE IN
MOST OF THE SOUTHERN WILL BE RAIN AS TEMPS DO NOT CHANGE MUCH FROM
CURRENT READINGS AFTER SUNDOWN...AND ACTUALLY RISE SLOWLY THRU
THE NIGHT. OVERNIGHT QPFS WILL BE LIGHT...WITH QPF GENERALLY A TEN
OF AN INCH OR SO...SO ANY ICE ACCRETIONS WILL BE LIGHT...AND
IMPACTS WILL BE LIMITED TO TRAVEL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE FZRA WILL LIKELY LINGER IN THE USUAL INTERIOR COLD SPOTS IN
THE MORNING BUT SHOULD CHANGE TO RAIN EVERYWHERE IN THE AFTERNOON.
THE SFC LOW WILL START TO INTENSIFY THURSDAY MORNING AND WILL SEE
PRECIP BEGIN TO FOLLOW. THIS WILL HELP SURGE SOME WARM AIR IN OFF
THE GULF OF ME AND COASTAL AREAS WILL LIKELY RISE INTO THE LOW MID
40S...WITH INLAND HIGHS IN THE N IN THE MID 20S TO AROUND 40.
EVENTUALLY THE COLDER AIR ALOFT WILL WORK IN FROM THE N AND CHANGE
THE RAIN TO SNOW IN THE NRN ZONES DURING THE AFTERNOON. WITH SOME
SNOW BEGINNING TO ACCUMULATE IN THIS AREAS LATE IN THE DAY.

THE LOW SHIFTS NE WED NIGHT AND CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY...WHICH
SHOULD PRODUCE ANOTHER SURGE OF PRECIP WED EVENING...GRADUALLY
CHANGING TO SNOW FROM N TO S. WILL SEE THE MOST SNOW IN SOMERSET
AND FRANKLIN COUNTIES WITH 3 TO 6 INCHES POSSIBLE...WITH SEVERAL
INCHES IN THE NH MOUNTAINS AND AND INCH OR TWO IN THE FOOTHILLS.
COULD SEE A COATING OF SNOW ALL THE WAY TO THE COAST BEFORE THU
MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION THURSDAY.
SNOW AND RAIN SHOULD MOSTLY END IN THE MORNING WITH DRIER WEATHER
EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON. FAIR WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. OUR ATTENTION THEN TURNS TOWARD A
POTENTIAL COASTAL LOW FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. AT THIS
TIME...THE LOW DOESN/T LOOK LIKE THE STRONG TYPE...BUT PERHAPS
ENOUGH TO DELIVER A PLOWABLE SNOWFALL TO THE AREA...MAYBE EVEN A
MIX ON THE COAST. STILL LOW CONFIDENCE THERE. THEREAFTER...THE 12Z
ECMWF AND GFS ARE ADVERTISING A PRETTY FORMIDABLE STORM FOR
CHRISTMAS EVE AND/OR CHRISTMAS DAY. WE/LL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THAT
POTENTIAL OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WE SHOULD EXPECT A LOT OF
RUN TO RUN DISCONTINUITY IN THE MODELS THAT FAR OUT AT THIS POINT
BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM...LOOK FOR DETERIORATION IFR AND LIFR THIS EVENING...IN
RA/FOG AND LOW CIGS. SLIGHT CHC FOR SOME FZRA AT KLEB OR KHIE. THE
IFR/IFR PERSISTS INTO WED MORNING...AND MAY SEE SOME OF THOSE
LIFR CONDS IMPROVE TO IFR DURING WED AFTERNOON...BUT IT LOOKS
LIKE WE WILL STUCK WITH IFR INTO WED NIGHT.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...IFR/MVFR IN RAIN/SNOW
IMPROVES TO VFR ON THE COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH LOWER
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE LINGERING IN THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. LOWER
CONDITIONS QUITE POSSIBLE IN SNOW AND/OR A MIX SUNDAY WITH COASTAL
LOW.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SE FETCH WILL BUILD SEAS TO 5-7 FT IN THE OPEN
WATERS BUT WINDS WILL REMAIN CLO SCA LVLS THRU WED. NW WINDS PICK
UP WED NIGHT...AND MAY APPROACH SCA CRITERIA.

LONG TERM...SCA EXPECTED THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE DEPARTS TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE WATERS. CONDITIONS
SUBSIDE THEREAFTER. SCA POSSIBLY RETURNS LATE IN THE WEEKEND WITH
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST WEDNESDAY FOR MEZ007-012-
     013.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MEZ008-009-
     014.
NH...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST WEDNESDAY FOR NHZ001-002-
     004.
     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NHZ003-005.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ150-152-
     154.

&&

$$
ES




000
FXUS61 KGYX 170346
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1046 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND NEW YORK
TONIGHT INTO THE GULF OF MAINE ON WEDNESDAY. THE LOW WILL MOVE
AWAY FROM THE REGION ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE REGION TOWARD THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND. ATTENTION WILL
THEN TURN TO A POTENTIAL WEAK COASTAL STORM WHICH WILL MOVE OFF
THE EAST COAST LATE IN THE WEEKEND. A STRONGER STORM COULD AFFECT
THE REGION MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...

1045 PM...I ADJUSTED 1ST PERIOD GRIDS TO REFLECT THE 03Z MESONET
FOR THIS ESTF UPDATE.

PREV DISC...
745 PM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO 1ST PERIOD GRIDS TO INGEST CURRENT
MESONET.

PREV DISC...
WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH SFC LOW OVER GREAT LAKES MOVING IN FROM
THE SW ATTM. WILL SEE NEW SFC LOW DEVELOP ALONG THIS FRONT TO OUR
S OVERNIGHT OCCLUDING IT. AREAS OF DZ AND SOME VERY LIGHT SN WILL
EVENTUALLY SHIFT TO A STEADIER PRECIP FROM SW TO NE THIS NE AS
WARM ADVECTION PROCESS BEGIN TO PRODUCE STEADIER PRECIP. P-TYPE IN
MOST OF THE SOUTHERN WILL BE RAIN AS TEMPS DO NOT CHANGE MUCH FROM
CURRENT READINGS AFTER SUNDOWN...AND ACTUALLY RISE SLOWLY THRU
THE NIGHT. OVERNIGHT QPFS WILL BE LIGHT...WITH QPF GENERALLY A TEN
OF AN INCH OR SO...SO ANY ICE ACCRETIONS WILL BE LIGHT...AND
IMPACTS WILL BE LIMITED TO TRAVEL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE FZRA WILL LIKELY LINGER IN THE USUAL INTERIOR COLD SPOTS IN
THE MORNING BUT SHOULD CHANGE TO RAIN EVERYWHERE IN THE AFTERNOON.
THE SFC LOW WILL START TO INTENSIFY THURSDAY MORNING AND WILL SEE
PRECIP BEGIN TO FOLLOW. THIS WILL HELP SURGE SOME WARM AIR IN OFF
THE GULF OF ME AND COASTAL AREAS WILL LIKELY RISE INTO THE LOW MID
40S...WITH INLAND HIGHS IN THE N IN THE MID 20S TO AROUND 40.
EVENTUALLY THE COLDER AIR ALOFT WILL WORK IN FROM THE N AND CHANGE
THE RAIN TO SNOW IN THE NRN ZONES DURING THE AFTERNOON. WITH SOME
SNOW BEGINNING TO ACCUMULATE IN THIS AREAS LATE IN THE DAY.

THE LOW SHIFTS NE WED NIGHT AND CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY...WHICH
SHOULD PRODUCE ANOTHER SURGE OF PRECIP WED EVENING...GRADUALLY
CHANGING TO SNOW FROM N TO S. WILL SEE THE MOST SNOW IN SOMERSET
AND FRANKLIN COUNTIES WITH 3 TO 6 INCHES POSSIBLE...WITH SEVERAL
INCHES IN THE NH MOUNTAINS AND AND INCH OR TWO IN THE FOOTHILLS.
COULD SEE A COATING OF SNOW ALL THE WAY TO THE COAST BEFORE THU
MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION THURSDAY.
SNOW AND RAIN SHOULD MOSTLY END IN THE MORNING WITH DRIER WEATHER
EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON. FAIR WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. OUR ATTENTION THEN TURNS TOWARD A
POTENTIAL COASTAL LOW FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. AT THIS
TIME...THE LOW DOESN/T LOOK LIKE THE STRONG TYPE...BUT PERHAPS
ENOUGH TO DELIVER A PLOWABLE SNOWFALL TO THE AREA...MAYBE EVEN A
MIX ON THE COAST. STILL LOW CONFIDENCE THERE. THEREAFTER...THE 12Z
ECMWF AND GFS ARE ADVERTISING A PRETTY FORMIDABLE STORM FOR
CHRISTMAS EVE AND/OR CHRISTMAS DAY. WE/LL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THAT
POTENTIAL OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WE SHOULD EXPECT A LOT OF
RUN TO RUN DISCONTINUITY IN THE MODELS THAT FAR OUT AT THIS POINT
BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM...LOOK FOR DETERIORATION IFR AND LIFR THIS EVENING...IN
RA/FOG AND LOW CIGS. SLIGHT CHC FOR SOME FZRA AT KLEB OR KHIE. THE
IFR/IFR PERSISTS INTO WED MORNING...AND MAY SEE SOME OF THOSE
LIFR CONDS IMPROVE TO IFR DURING WED AFTERNOON...BUT IT LOOKS
LIKE WE WILL STUCK WITH IFR INTO WED NIGHT.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...IFR/MVFR IN RAIN/SNOW
IMPROVES TO VFR ON THE COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH LOWER
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE LINGERING IN THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. LOWER
CONDITIONS QUITE POSSIBLE IN SNOW AND/OR A MIX SUNDAY WITH COASTAL
LOW.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SE FETCH WILL BUILD SEAS TO 5-7 FT IN THE OPEN
WATERS BUT WINDS WILL REMAIN CLO SCA LVLS THRU WED. NW WINDS PICK
UP WED NIGHT...AND MAY APPROACH SCA CRITERIA.

LONG TERM...SCA EXPECTED THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE DEPARTS TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE WATERS. CONDITIONS
SUBSIDE THEREAFTER. SCA POSSIBLY RETURNS LATE IN THE WEEKEND WITH
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST WEDNESDAY FOR MEZ007-012-
     013.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MEZ008-009-
     014.
NH...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST WEDNESDAY FOR NHZ001-002-
     004.
     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NHZ003-005.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ150-152-
     154.

&&

$$
ES



000
FXUS61 KGYX 170346
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1046 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND NEW YORK
TONIGHT INTO THE GULF OF MAINE ON WEDNESDAY. THE LOW WILL MOVE
AWAY FROM THE REGION ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE REGION TOWARD THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND. ATTENTION WILL
THEN TURN TO A POTENTIAL WEAK COASTAL STORM WHICH WILL MOVE OFF
THE EAST COAST LATE IN THE WEEKEND. A STRONGER STORM COULD AFFECT
THE REGION MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...

1045 PM...I ADJUSTED 1ST PERIOD GRIDS TO REFLECT THE 03Z MESONET
FOR THIS ESTF UPDATE.

PREV DISC...
745 PM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO 1ST PERIOD GRIDS TO INGEST CURRENT
MESONET.

PREV DISC...
WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH SFC LOW OVER GREAT LAKES MOVING IN FROM
THE SW ATTM. WILL SEE NEW SFC LOW DEVELOP ALONG THIS FRONT TO OUR
S OVERNIGHT OCCLUDING IT. AREAS OF DZ AND SOME VERY LIGHT SN WILL
EVENTUALLY SHIFT TO A STEADIER PRECIP FROM SW TO NE THIS NE AS
WARM ADVECTION PROCESS BEGIN TO PRODUCE STEADIER PRECIP. P-TYPE IN
MOST OF THE SOUTHERN WILL BE RAIN AS TEMPS DO NOT CHANGE MUCH FROM
CURRENT READINGS AFTER SUNDOWN...AND ACTUALLY RISE SLOWLY THRU
THE NIGHT. OVERNIGHT QPFS WILL BE LIGHT...WITH QPF GENERALLY A TEN
OF AN INCH OR SO...SO ANY ICE ACCRETIONS WILL BE LIGHT...AND
IMPACTS WILL BE LIMITED TO TRAVEL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE FZRA WILL LIKELY LINGER IN THE USUAL INTERIOR COLD SPOTS IN
THE MORNING BUT SHOULD CHANGE TO RAIN EVERYWHERE IN THE AFTERNOON.
THE SFC LOW WILL START TO INTENSIFY THURSDAY MORNING AND WILL SEE
PRECIP BEGIN TO FOLLOW. THIS WILL HELP SURGE SOME WARM AIR IN OFF
THE GULF OF ME AND COASTAL AREAS WILL LIKELY RISE INTO THE LOW MID
40S...WITH INLAND HIGHS IN THE N IN THE MID 20S TO AROUND 40.
EVENTUALLY THE COLDER AIR ALOFT WILL WORK IN FROM THE N AND CHANGE
THE RAIN TO SNOW IN THE NRN ZONES DURING THE AFTERNOON. WITH SOME
SNOW BEGINNING TO ACCUMULATE IN THIS AREAS LATE IN THE DAY.

THE LOW SHIFTS NE WED NIGHT AND CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY...WHICH
SHOULD PRODUCE ANOTHER SURGE OF PRECIP WED EVENING...GRADUALLY
CHANGING TO SNOW FROM N TO S. WILL SEE THE MOST SNOW IN SOMERSET
AND FRANKLIN COUNTIES WITH 3 TO 6 INCHES POSSIBLE...WITH SEVERAL
INCHES IN THE NH MOUNTAINS AND AND INCH OR TWO IN THE FOOTHILLS.
COULD SEE A COATING OF SNOW ALL THE WAY TO THE COAST BEFORE THU
MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION THURSDAY.
SNOW AND RAIN SHOULD MOSTLY END IN THE MORNING WITH DRIER WEATHER
EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON. FAIR WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. OUR ATTENTION THEN TURNS TOWARD A
POTENTIAL COASTAL LOW FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. AT THIS
TIME...THE LOW DOESN/T LOOK LIKE THE STRONG TYPE...BUT PERHAPS
ENOUGH TO DELIVER A PLOWABLE SNOWFALL TO THE AREA...MAYBE EVEN A
MIX ON THE COAST. STILL LOW CONFIDENCE THERE. THEREAFTER...THE 12Z
ECMWF AND GFS ARE ADVERTISING A PRETTY FORMIDABLE STORM FOR
CHRISTMAS EVE AND/OR CHRISTMAS DAY. WE/LL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THAT
POTENTIAL OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WE SHOULD EXPECT A LOT OF
RUN TO RUN DISCONTINUITY IN THE MODELS THAT FAR OUT AT THIS POINT
BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM...LOOK FOR DETERIORATION IFR AND LIFR THIS EVENING...IN
RA/FOG AND LOW CIGS. SLIGHT CHC FOR SOME FZRA AT KLEB OR KHIE. THE
IFR/IFR PERSISTS INTO WED MORNING...AND MAY SEE SOME OF THOSE
LIFR CONDS IMPROVE TO IFR DURING WED AFTERNOON...BUT IT LOOKS
LIKE WE WILL STUCK WITH IFR INTO WED NIGHT.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...IFR/MVFR IN RAIN/SNOW
IMPROVES TO VFR ON THE COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH LOWER
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE LINGERING IN THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. LOWER
CONDITIONS QUITE POSSIBLE IN SNOW AND/OR A MIX SUNDAY WITH COASTAL
LOW.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SE FETCH WILL BUILD SEAS TO 5-7 FT IN THE OPEN
WATERS BUT WINDS WILL REMAIN CLO SCA LVLS THRU WED. NW WINDS PICK
UP WED NIGHT...AND MAY APPROACH SCA CRITERIA.

LONG TERM...SCA EXPECTED THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE DEPARTS TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE WATERS. CONDITIONS
SUBSIDE THEREAFTER. SCA POSSIBLY RETURNS LATE IN THE WEEKEND WITH
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST WEDNESDAY FOR MEZ007-012-
     013.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MEZ008-009-
     014.
NH...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST WEDNESDAY FOR NHZ001-002-
     004.
     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NHZ003-005.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ150-152-
     154.

&&

$$
ES




000
FXUS61 KGYX 170346
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1046 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND NEW YORK
TONIGHT INTO THE GULF OF MAINE ON WEDNESDAY. THE LOW WILL MOVE
AWAY FROM THE REGION ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE REGION TOWARD THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND. ATTENTION WILL
THEN TURN TO A POTENTIAL WEAK COASTAL STORM WHICH WILL MOVE OFF
THE EAST COAST LATE IN THE WEEKEND. A STRONGER STORM COULD AFFECT
THE REGION MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...

1045 PM...I ADJUSTED 1ST PERIOD GRIDS TO REFLECT THE 03Z MESONET
FOR THIS ESTF UPDATE.

PREV DISC...
745 PM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO 1ST PERIOD GRIDS TO INGEST CURRENT
MESONET.

PREV DISC...
WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH SFC LOW OVER GREAT LAKES MOVING IN FROM
THE SW ATTM. WILL SEE NEW SFC LOW DEVELOP ALONG THIS FRONT TO OUR
S OVERNIGHT OCCLUDING IT. AREAS OF DZ AND SOME VERY LIGHT SN WILL
EVENTUALLY SHIFT TO A STEADIER PRECIP FROM SW TO NE THIS NE AS
WARM ADVECTION PROCESS BEGIN TO PRODUCE STEADIER PRECIP. P-TYPE IN
MOST OF THE SOUTHERN WILL BE RAIN AS TEMPS DO NOT CHANGE MUCH FROM
CURRENT READINGS AFTER SUNDOWN...AND ACTUALLY RISE SLOWLY THRU
THE NIGHT. OVERNIGHT QPFS WILL BE LIGHT...WITH QPF GENERALLY A TEN
OF AN INCH OR SO...SO ANY ICE ACCRETIONS WILL BE LIGHT...AND
IMPACTS WILL BE LIMITED TO TRAVEL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE FZRA WILL LIKELY LINGER IN THE USUAL INTERIOR COLD SPOTS IN
THE MORNING BUT SHOULD CHANGE TO RAIN EVERYWHERE IN THE AFTERNOON.
THE SFC LOW WILL START TO INTENSIFY THURSDAY MORNING AND WILL SEE
PRECIP BEGIN TO FOLLOW. THIS WILL HELP SURGE SOME WARM AIR IN OFF
THE GULF OF ME AND COASTAL AREAS WILL LIKELY RISE INTO THE LOW MID
40S...WITH INLAND HIGHS IN THE N IN THE MID 20S TO AROUND 40.
EVENTUALLY THE COLDER AIR ALOFT WILL WORK IN FROM THE N AND CHANGE
THE RAIN TO SNOW IN THE NRN ZONES DURING THE AFTERNOON. WITH SOME
SNOW BEGINNING TO ACCUMULATE IN THIS AREAS LATE IN THE DAY.

THE LOW SHIFTS NE WED NIGHT AND CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY...WHICH
SHOULD PRODUCE ANOTHER SURGE OF PRECIP WED EVENING...GRADUALLY
CHANGING TO SNOW FROM N TO S. WILL SEE THE MOST SNOW IN SOMERSET
AND FRANKLIN COUNTIES WITH 3 TO 6 INCHES POSSIBLE...WITH SEVERAL
INCHES IN THE NH MOUNTAINS AND AND INCH OR TWO IN THE FOOTHILLS.
COULD SEE A COATING OF SNOW ALL THE WAY TO THE COAST BEFORE THU
MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION THURSDAY.
SNOW AND RAIN SHOULD MOSTLY END IN THE MORNING WITH DRIER WEATHER
EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON. FAIR WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. OUR ATTENTION THEN TURNS TOWARD A
POTENTIAL COASTAL LOW FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. AT THIS
TIME...THE LOW DOESN/T LOOK LIKE THE STRONG TYPE...BUT PERHAPS
ENOUGH TO DELIVER A PLOWABLE SNOWFALL TO THE AREA...MAYBE EVEN A
MIX ON THE COAST. STILL LOW CONFIDENCE THERE. THEREAFTER...THE 12Z
ECMWF AND GFS ARE ADVERTISING A PRETTY FORMIDABLE STORM FOR
CHRISTMAS EVE AND/OR CHRISTMAS DAY. WE/LL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THAT
POTENTIAL OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WE SHOULD EXPECT A LOT OF
RUN TO RUN DISCONTINUITY IN THE MODELS THAT FAR OUT AT THIS POINT
BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM...LOOK FOR DETERIORATION IFR AND LIFR THIS EVENING...IN
RA/FOG AND LOW CIGS. SLIGHT CHC FOR SOME FZRA AT KLEB OR KHIE. THE
IFR/IFR PERSISTS INTO WED MORNING...AND MAY SEE SOME OF THOSE
LIFR CONDS IMPROVE TO IFR DURING WED AFTERNOON...BUT IT LOOKS
LIKE WE WILL STUCK WITH IFR INTO WED NIGHT.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...IFR/MVFR IN RAIN/SNOW
IMPROVES TO VFR ON THE COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH LOWER
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE LINGERING IN THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. LOWER
CONDITIONS QUITE POSSIBLE IN SNOW AND/OR A MIX SUNDAY WITH COASTAL
LOW.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SE FETCH WILL BUILD SEAS TO 5-7 FT IN THE OPEN
WATERS BUT WINDS WILL REMAIN CLO SCA LVLS THRU WED. NW WINDS PICK
UP WED NIGHT...AND MAY APPROACH SCA CRITERIA.

LONG TERM...SCA EXPECTED THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE DEPARTS TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE WATERS. CONDITIONS
SUBSIDE THEREAFTER. SCA POSSIBLY RETURNS LATE IN THE WEEKEND WITH
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST WEDNESDAY FOR MEZ007-012-
     013.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MEZ008-009-
     014.
NH...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST WEDNESDAY FOR NHZ001-002-
     004.
     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NHZ003-005.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ150-152-
     154.

&&

$$
ES



000
FXUS61 KCAR 170205
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
905 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE REGION WEDNESDAY...THEN TRACK
ACROSS DOWNEAST MAINE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
9 PM UPDATE...LIGHT SNOW HAS CHANGED OVER TO DRIZZLE IN BANGOR.
PATCHY LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES TO FALL IN CENTRAL AREAS. WITH LOW
STRATUS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCOOLED DRIZZLE, HAVE ADDED
PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS CENTRAL AREAS TONIGHT. OTHERWISE,
NO MAJOR CHANGES THIS HOUR.

A TOUGH FORECAST UPCOMING FOR A WINTER EVENT. THIS EVENT
WILL BE DRAWN OUT OVER 36 HR GOING INTO THURSDAY W/2 WAVES OF
PRECIP.

LOW PRES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL WEAKEN AS A SECOND LOW
DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST AND TRACKS NE. WAA
ALOFT IS UNDERWAY ATTM AND TEMPS ACROSS THE DOWNEAST AND COAST
HAVE WARMED INTO THE LOW AND MID 30S. FURTHER N. TEMPS HAVE BEEN
SLOWER TO WARM THANKS IN PART TO SOME SHALLOW COLD AIR DAMMING
W/HIGH PRES TO THE NE. THIS WILL PLAY TO HOW THINGS SETUP
OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. SOME LIGHT SNOW HAD BROKEN EARLY TODAY
W/SOME WEAK FORCING ALOFT. THE MOST PROMINENT AND SUBSTANTIAL
PRECIP WILL SET UP TONIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY. THE NAM
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN VERIFYING QUITE WELL W/ITS TEMPERATURES IN THE
BLYR AND SYNOPTIC SETUP W/KEEPING COLDER AIR IN PLACE ACROSS THE
NORTH W/THE HIGH TO THE NORTH AND LOW PRES TO THE SOUTH.

LIGHT PRECIP TONIGHT WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTH. SOUNDING
PROFILES INDICATE LIGHT SNOW AND SLEET ACROSS THE NORTH AND
CENTRAL AREAS INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. ACROSS THE INTERIOR
DOWNEAST AND COAST, LIGHT SNOW OR SLEET GOING TO PERIOD OF LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE EARLY TONIGHT AND THEN TO JUST RAIN BY LATE
NIGHT AS TEMPERATURES WARM WELL INTO THE 30S. ACROSS THE NORTH AND
CENTRAL AREAS, FROZEN/FREEZING PRECIP WILL HANG ON RIGHT INTO
MIDDAY TUESDAY W/WAA EXPECTED TO REACH THE HOULTON-MILLINOCKET
REGION BY EARLY AFTERNOON W/RAIN. ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES, FROM
CARIBOU-PRESQUE ISLE, MIXED SNOW/SLEET GOING TO FREEZING
RAIN/SLEET INTO MID AFTERNOON W/SOME SLEET AND ICE ACCUMULATION.
AS THE LOW TRAVELS ACROSS THE COAST OF MAINE TOWARD THE BAY OF
FUNDY BY WEDNESDAY EVENING, CAA WILL WRAP BACK IN TO ALLOW PRECIP
TO GO TO SNOW AS FAR SOUTH AS HOULTON AND MILLINOCKET W/SOME SNOW
ACCUMULATION OF 1-2 INCHES BY EARLY EVENING. ICE ACCUMULATIONS
ACROSS THE NORTH- CENTRAL AREAS WILL BE TRICKY AS SLEET TRANSITION
COULD BE QUICKER CUTTING DOWN ON THE ICING. ATTM, ICE
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO 0.10-0.20 ACROSS THE PRESQUE ISLE-
HOULTON-SHERMAN AREA.

THEREFORE, WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT ACROSS THE
HOULTON-MILLINOCKET AND GREENVILLE REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR ICING POTENTIAL. ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AREAS FROM CARIBOU- PRESQUE ISLE NORTH TO THE ST. JOHN
VALLEY, THE ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY RIGHT INTO
THURSDAY FOR A COMBINATION OF SNOW/SLEET ACCUMULATION OF 6-10
INCHES AND LIGHT ICING. THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS SUCH AS THE LINCOLN
AND DOVER-FOXCROFT WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED AS ANY PROLONGED
FREEZING RAIN COULD LEAD TO SOME ICING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE
CONFIDENCE FOR THIS IS LOW ATTM. THE MIDNIGHT CREW CAN ASSESS THIS
POTENTIAL FURTHER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF OF MAINE DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY AND BECOME THE PRIMARY SYSTEM AS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES FILLS. THE PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE IN THE
FORM OF A MIXTURE OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN WEDNESDAY EVENING
WITH WARM AIR IN THE MID LEVELS AND COLD AIR REMAINS NEAR THE
SURFACE. AS THE GREAT LAKES LOW FILLS AND THE GULF OF MAINE LOW
BECOMES THE PRIMARY SYSTEM EXPECT THE WARM AIR AT MID LEVELS TO BE
CUT OFF AND COLD ADVECTION TO TAKE PLACE W/MIXED PRECIPITATION IN
THE NORTH AND CENTRAL AREAS TO CHANGE TO SNOW. THE SNOW WILL
CONTINUE THURSDAY MORNING THEN END LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE
LOW CENTER CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST INTO NOVA SCOTIA.
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO STAY MOSTLY AS RAIN IN THE SOUTH AND
ALONG THE COAST. FOR PRECIPITATION TYPE HAVE USED THE
PRECIPITATION FROM THICKNESS TOOL RUN ON A 50/50 BLEND OF THE NAM
AND GFS. FOR TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT WILL USE THE NAM12 WITH
INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE GULF OF MAINE. HAVE
USED THE NAM12 FOR WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD IN
FROM THE WEST FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE STATE SATURDAY THEN MOVE TO THE
EAST SUNDAY. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE TO
THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AND POSSIBLY BRING SOME
LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE STATE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE WEST AND CREST OVER THE STATE
TUESDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN APPROACH FROM THE WEST
WEDNESDAY. HAVE USED THE SUPER BLEND TO INITIALIZE GRIDS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR LIFTING TO MVFR THIS EVENING AND THEN A RETURN BACK
TO IFR FOR ALL THE TERMINALS TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. SOME ICING
POTENTIAL IS THERE ESPECIALLY FOR THE NORTHERN TERMINALS.

SHORT TERM: EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR CONDITIONS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS WILL START PICKING UP ON WEDNESDAY W/SEAS
RESPONDING ACCORDINGLY. A 40 KT LLVL JET FROM SSE IS FORECAST TO
MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS ON WEDNESDAY. SOME CROSSING OF THE WINDS IS
THERE AS SURFACE WINDS OF 15-20 KTS ARE FORECAST TO BE OUT OF THE
ENE. SOME GUST POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR UP TO 30 KTS ESPECIALLY OUT
OVER THE OUTER WATERS. THEREFORE, DECIDED TO GO W/A SCA FOR WINDS
OF 15 TO 25 KTS AND SEAS APCHG 6 FT BY LATE WEDNESDAY. WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO DROP OFF WEDNESDAY EVENING AS THE LOW MOVES ACROSS THE
WATERS.

SHORT TERM: HAVE USED THE NAM12 FOR SUSTAINED WINDS. FOR WAVES:
PRIMARY WAVE SYSTEM LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY IS SOUTHEASTERLY
WAVES DEVELOPING IN FETCH AHEAD OF INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE THEN
TRANSITION TO OFF-SHORE WIND WAVES AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES TO THE
NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 3 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR MEZ001-002.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     MEZ003>006-010.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HEWITT/MCB
SHORT TERM...MIGNONE
LONG TERM...MIGNONE
AVIATION...HEWITT/MIGNONE
MARINE...HEWITT/MIGNONE




000
FXUS61 KCAR 170205
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
905 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE REGION WEDNESDAY...THEN TRACK
ACROSS DOWNEAST MAINE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
9 PM UPDATE...LIGHT SNOW HAS CHANGED OVER TO DRIZZLE IN BANGOR.
PATCHY LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES TO FALL IN CENTRAL AREAS. WITH LOW
STRATUS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCOOLED DRIZZLE, HAVE ADDED
PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS CENTRAL AREAS TONIGHT. OTHERWISE,
NO MAJOR CHANGES THIS HOUR.

A TOUGH FORECAST UPCOMING FOR A WINTER EVENT. THIS EVENT
WILL BE DRAWN OUT OVER 36 HR GOING INTO THURSDAY W/2 WAVES OF
PRECIP.

LOW PRES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL WEAKEN AS A SECOND LOW
DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST AND TRACKS NE. WAA
ALOFT IS UNDERWAY ATTM AND TEMPS ACROSS THE DOWNEAST AND COAST
HAVE WARMED INTO THE LOW AND MID 30S. FURTHER N. TEMPS HAVE BEEN
SLOWER TO WARM THANKS IN PART TO SOME SHALLOW COLD AIR DAMMING
W/HIGH PRES TO THE NE. THIS WILL PLAY TO HOW THINGS SETUP
OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. SOME LIGHT SNOW HAD BROKEN EARLY TODAY
W/SOME WEAK FORCING ALOFT. THE MOST PROMINENT AND SUBSTANTIAL
PRECIP WILL SET UP TONIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY. THE NAM
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN VERIFYING QUITE WELL W/ITS TEMPERATURES IN THE
BLYR AND SYNOPTIC SETUP W/KEEPING COLDER AIR IN PLACE ACROSS THE
NORTH W/THE HIGH TO THE NORTH AND LOW PRES TO THE SOUTH.

LIGHT PRECIP TONIGHT WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTH. SOUNDING
PROFILES INDICATE LIGHT SNOW AND SLEET ACROSS THE NORTH AND
CENTRAL AREAS INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. ACROSS THE INTERIOR
DOWNEAST AND COAST, LIGHT SNOW OR SLEET GOING TO PERIOD OF LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE EARLY TONIGHT AND THEN TO JUST RAIN BY LATE
NIGHT AS TEMPERATURES WARM WELL INTO THE 30S. ACROSS THE NORTH AND
CENTRAL AREAS, FROZEN/FREEZING PRECIP WILL HANG ON RIGHT INTO
MIDDAY TUESDAY W/WAA EXPECTED TO REACH THE HOULTON-MILLINOCKET
REGION BY EARLY AFTERNOON W/RAIN. ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES, FROM
CARIBOU-PRESQUE ISLE, MIXED SNOW/SLEET GOING TO FREEZING
RAIN/SLEET INTO MID AFTERNOON W/SOME SLEET AND ICE ACCUMULATION.
AS THE LOW TRAVELS ACROSS THE COAST OF MAINE TOWARD THE BAY OF
FUNDY BY WEDNESDAY EVENING, CAA WILL WRAP BACK IN TO ALLOW PRECIP
TO GO TO SNOW AS FAR SOUTH AS HOULTON AND MILLINOCKET W/SOME SNOW
ACCUMULATION OF 1-2 INCHES BY EARLY EVENING. ICE ACCUMULATIONS
ACROSS THE NORTH- CENTRAL AREAS WILL BE TRICKY AS SLEET TRANSITION
COULD BE QUICKER CUTTING DOWN ON THE ICING. ATTM, ICE
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO 0.10-0.20 ACROSS THE PRESQUE ISLE-
HOULTON-SHERMAN AREA.

THEREFORE, WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT ACROSS THE
HOULTON-MILLINOCKET AND GREENVILLE REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR ICING POTENTIAL. ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AREAS FROM CARIBOU- PRESQUE ISLE NORTH TO THE ST. JOHN
VALLEY, THE ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY RIGHT INTO
THURSDAY FOR A COMBINATION OF SNOW/SLEET ACCUMULATION OF 6-10
INCHES AND LIGHT ICING. THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS SUCH AS THE LINCOLN
AND DOVER-FOXCROFT WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED AS ANY PROLONGED
FREEZING RAIN COULD LEAD TO SOME ICING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE
CONFIDENCE FOR THIS IS LOW ATTM. THE MIDNIGHT CREW CAN ASSESS THIS
POTENTIAL FURTHER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF OF MAINE DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY AND BECOME THE PRIMARY SYSTEM AS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES FILLS. THE PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE IN THE
FORM OF A MIXTURE OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN WEDNESDAY EVENING
WITH WARM AIR IN THE MID LEVELS AND COLD AIR REMAINS NEAR THE
SURFACE. AS THE GREAT LAKES LOW FILLS AND THE GULF OF MAINE LOW
BECOMES THE PRIMARY SYSTEM EXPECT THE WARM AIR AT MID LEVELS TO BE
CUT OFF AND COLD ADVECTION TO TAKE PLACE W/MIXED PRECIPITATION IN
THE NORTH AND CENTRAL AREAS TO CHANGE TO SNOW. THE SNOW WILL
CONTINUE THURSDAY MORNING THEN END LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE
LOW CENTER CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST INTO NOVA SCOTIA.
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO STAY MOSTLY AS RAIN IN THE SOUTH AND
ALONG THE COAST. FOR PRECIPITATION TYPE HAVE USED THE
PRECIPITATION FROM THICKNESS TOOL RUN ON A 50/50 BLEND OF THE NAM
AND GFS. FOR TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT WILL USE THE NAM12 WITH
INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE GULF OF MAINE. HAVE
USED THE NAM12 FOR WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD IN
FROM THE WEST FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE STATE SATURDAY THEN MOVE TO THE
EAST SUNDAY. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE TO
THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AND POSSIBLY BRING SOME
LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE STATE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE WEST AND CREST OVER THE STATE
TUESDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN APPROACH FROM THE WEST
WEDNESDAY. HAVE USED THE SUPER BLEND TO INITIALIZE GRIDS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR LIFTING TO MVFR THIS EVENING AND THEN A RETURN BACK
TO IFR FOR ALL THE TERMINALS TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. SOME ICING
POTENTIAL IS THERE ESPECIALLY FOR THE NORTHERN TERMINALS.

SHORT TERM: EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR CONDITIONS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS WILL START PICKING UP ON WEDNESDAY W/SEAS
RESPONDING ACCORDINGLY. A 40 KT LLVL JET FROM SSE IS FORECAST TO
MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS ON WEDNESDAY. SOME CROSSING OF THE WINDS IS
THERE AS SURFACE WINDS OF 15-20 KTS ARE FORECAST TO BE OUT OF THE
ENE. SOME GUST POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR UP TO 30 KTS ESPECIALLY OUT
OVER THE OUTER WATERS. THEREFORE, DECIDED TO GO W/A SCA FOR WINDS
OF 15 TO 25 KTS AND SEAS APCHG 6 FT BY LATE WEDNESDAY. WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO DROP OFF WEDNESDAY EVENING AS THE LOW MOVES ACROSS THE
WATERS.

SHORT TERM: HAVE USED THE NAM12 FOR SUSTAINED WINDS. FOR WAVES:
PRIMARY WAVE SYSTEM LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY IS SOUTHEASTERLY
WAVES DEVELOPING IN FETCH AHEAD OF INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE THEN
TRANSITION TO OFF-SHORE WIND WAVES AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES TO THE
NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 3 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR MEZ001-002.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     MEZ003>006-010.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HEWITT/MCB
SHORT TERM...MIGNONE
LONG TERM...MIGNONE
AVIATION...HEWITT/MIGNONE
MARINE...HEWITT/MIGNONE




000
FXUS61 KCAR 170205
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
905 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE REGION WEDNESDAY...THEN TRACK
ACROSS DOWNEAST MAINE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
9 PM UPDATE...LIGHT SNOW HAS CHANGED OVER TO DRIZZLE IN BANGOR.
PATCHY LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES TO FALL IN CENTRAL AREAS. WITH LOW
STRATUS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCOOLED DRIZZLE, HAVE ADDED
PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS CENTRAL AREAS TONIGHT. OTHERWISE,
NO MAJOR CHANGES THIS HOUR.

A TOUGH FORECAST UPCOMING FOR A WINTER EVENT. THIS EVENT
WILL BE DRAWN OUT OVER 36 HR GOING INTO THURSDAY W/2 WAVES OF
PRECIP.

LOW PRES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL WEAKEN AS A SECOND LOW
DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST AND TRACKS NE. WAA
ALOFT IS UNDERWAY ATTM AND TEMPS ACROSS THE DOWNEAST AND COAST
HAVE WARMED INTO THE LOW AND MID 30S. FURTHER N. TEMPS HAVE BEEN
SLOWER TO WARM THANKS IN PART TO SOME SHALLOW COLD AIR DAMMING
W/HIGH PRES TO THE NE. THIS WILL PLAY TO HOW THINGS SETUP
OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. SOME LIGHT SNOW HAD BROKEN EARLY TODAY
W/SOME WEAK FORCING ALOFT. THE MOST PROMINENT AND SUBSTANTIAL
PRECIP WILL SET UP TONIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY. THE NAM
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN VERIFYING QUITE WELL W/ITS TEMPERATURES IN THE
BLYR AND SYNOPTIC SETUP W/KEEPING COLDER AIR IN PLACE ACROSS THE
NORTH W/THE HIGH TO THE NORTH AND LOW PRES TO THE SOUTH.

LIGHT PRECIP TONIGHT WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTH. SOUNDING
PROFILES INDICATE LIGHT SNOW AND SLEET ACROSS THE NORTH AND
CENTRAL AREAS INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. ACROSS THE INTERIOR
DOWNEAST AND COAST, LIGHT SNOW OR SLEET GOING TO PERIOD OF LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE EARLY TONIGHT AND THEN TO JUST RAIN BY LATE
NIGHT AS TEMPERATURES WARM WELL INTO THE 30S. ACROSS THE NORTH AND
CENTRAL AREAS, FROZEN/FREEZING PRECIP WILL HANG ON RIGHT INTO
MIDDAY TUESDAY W/WAA EXPECTED TO REACH THE HOULTON-MILLINOCKET
REGION BY EARLY AFTERNOON W/RAIN. ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES, FROM
CARIBOU-PRESQUE ISLE, MIXED SNOW/SLEET GOING TO FREEZING
RAIN/SLEET INTO MID AFTERNOON W/SOME SLEET AND ICE ACCUMULATION.
AS THE LOW TRAVELS ACROSS THE COAST OF MAINE TOWARD THE BAY OF
FUNDY BY WEDNESDAY EVENING, CAA WILL WRAP BACK IN TO ALLOW PRECIP
TO GO TO SNOW AS FAR SOUTH AS HOULTON AND MILLINOCKET W/SOME SNOW
ACCUMULATION OF 1-2 INCHES BY EARLY EVENING. ICE ACCUMULATIONS
ACROSS THE NORTH- CENTRAL AREAS WILL BE TRICKY AS SLEET TRANSITION
COULD BE QUICKER CUTTING DOWN ON THE ICING. ATTM, ICE
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO 0.10-0.20 ACROSS THE PRESQUE ISLE-
HOULTON-SHERMAN AREA.

THEREFORE, WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT ACROSS THE
HOULTON-MILLINOCKET AND GREENVILLE REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR ICING POTENTIAL. ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AREAS FROM CARIBOU- PRESQUE ISLE NORTH TO THE ST. JOHN
VALLEY, THE ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY RIGHT INTO
THURSDAY FOR A COMBINATION OF SNOW/SLEET ACCUMULATION OF 6-10
INCHES AND LIGHT ICING. THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS SUCH AS THE LINCOLN
AND DOVER-FOXCROFT WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED AS ANY PROLONGED
FREEZING RAIN COULD LEAD TO SOME ICING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE
CONFIDENCE FOR THIS IS LOW ATTM. THE MIDNIGHT CREW CAN ASSESS THIS
POTENTIAL FURTHER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF OF MAINE DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY AND BECOME THE PRIMARY SYSTEM AS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES FILLS. THE PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE IN THE
FORM OF A MIXTURE OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN WEDNESDAY EVENING
WITH WARM AIR IN THE MID LEVELS AND COLD AIR REMAINS NEAR THE
SURFACE. AS THE GREAT LAKES LOW FILLS AND THE GULF OF MAINE LOW
BECOMES THE PRIMARY SYSTEM EXPECT THE WARM AIR AT MID LEVELS TO BE
CUT OFF AND COLD ADVECTION TO TAKE PLACE W/MIXED PRECIPITATION IN
THE NORTH AND CENTRAL AREAS TO CHANGE TO SNOW. THE SNOW WILL
CONTINUE THURSDAY MORNING THEN END LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE
LOW CENTER CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST INTO NOVA SCOTIA.
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO STAY MOSTLY AS RAIN IN THE SOUTH AND
ALONG THE COAST. FOR PRECIPITATION TYPE HAVE USED THE
PRECIPITATION FROM THICKNESS TOOL RUN ON A 50/50 BLEND OF THE NAM
AND GFS. FOR TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT WILL USE THE NAM12 WITH
INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE GULF OF MAINE. HAVE
USED THE NAM12 FOR WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD IN
FROM THE WEST FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE STATE SATURDAY THEN MOVE TO THE
EAST SUNDAY. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE TO
THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AND POSSIBLY BRING SOME
LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE STATE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE WEST AND CREST OVER THE STATE
TUESDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN APPROACH FROM THE WEST
WEDNESDAY. HAVE USED THE SUPER BLEND TO INITIALIZE GRIDS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR LIFTING TO MVFR THIS EVENING AND THEN A RETURN BACK
TO IFR FOR ALL THE TERMINALS TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. SOME ICING
POTENTIAL IS THERE ESPECIALLY FOR THE NORTHERN TERMINALS.

SHORT TERM: EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR CONDITIONS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS WILL START PICKING UP ON WEDNESDAY W/SEAS
RESPONDING ACCORDINGLY. A 40 KT LLVL JET FROM SSE IS FORECAST TO
MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS ON WEDNESDAY. SOME CROSSING OF THE WINDS IS
THERE AS SURFACE WINDS OF 15-20 KTS ARE FORECAST TO BE OUT OF THE
ENE. SOME GUST POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR UP TO 30 KTS ESPECIALLY OUT
OVER THE OUTER WATERS. THEREFORE, DECIDED TO GO W/A SCA FOR WINDS
OF 15 TO 25 KTS AND SEAS APCHG 6 FT BY LATE WEDNESDAY. WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO DROP OFF WEDNESDAY EVENING AS THE LOW MOVES ACROSS THE
WATERS.

SHORT TERM: HAVE USED THE NAM12 FOR SUSTAINED WINDS. FOR WAVES:
PRIMARY WAVE SYSTEM LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY IS SOUTHEASTERLY
WAVES DEVELOPING IN FETCH AHEAD OF INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE THEN
TRANSITION TO OFF-SHORE WIND WAVES AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES TO THE
NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 3 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR MEZ001-002.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     MEZ003>006-010.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HEWITT/MCB
SHORT TERM...MIGNONE
LONG TERM...MIGNONE
AVIATION...HEWITT/MIGNONE
MARINE...HEWITT/MIGNONE




000
FXUS61 KCAR 170205
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
905 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE REGION WEDNESDAY...THEN TRACK
ACROSS DOWNEAST MAINE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
9 PM UPDATE...LIGHT SNOW HAS CHANGED OVER TO DRIZZLE IN BANGOR.
PATCHY LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES TO FALL IN CENTRAL AREAS. WITH LOW
STRATUS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCOOLED DRIZZLE, HAVE ADDED
PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS CENTRAL AREAS TONIGHT. OTHERWISE,
NO MAJOR CHANGES THIS HOUR.

A TOUGH FORECAST UPCOMING FOR A WINTER EVENT. THIS EVENT
WILL BE DRAWN OUT OVER 36 HR GOING INTO THURSDAY W/2 WAVES OF
PRECIP.

LOW PRES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL WEAKEN AS A SECOND LOW
DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST AND TRACKS NE. WAA
ALOFT IS UNDERWAY ATTM AND TEMPS ACROSS THE DOWNEAST AND COAST
HAVE WARMED INTO THE LOW AND MID 30S. FURTHER N. TEMPS HAVE BEEN
SLOWER TO WARM THANKS IN PART TO SOME SHALLOW COLD AIR DAMMING
W/HIGH PRES TO THE NE. THIS WILL PLAY TO HOW THINGS SETUP
OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. SOME LIGHT SNOW HAD BROKEN EARLY TODAY
W/SOME WEAK FORCING ALOFT. THE MOST PROMINENT AND SUBSTANTIAL
PRECIP WILL SET UP TONIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY. THE NAM
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN VERIFYING QUITE WELL W/ITS TEMPERATURES IN THE
BLYR AND SYNOPTIC SETUP W/KEEPING COLDER AIR IN PLACE ACROSS THE
NORTH W/THE HIGH TO THE NORTH AND LOW PRES TO THE SOUTH.

LIGHT PRECIP TONIGHT WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTH. SOUNDING
PROFILES INDICATE LIGHT SNOW AND SLEET ACROSS THE NORTH AND
CENTRAL AREAS INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. ACROSS THE INTERIOR
DOWNEAST AND COAST, LIGHT SNOW OR SLEET GOING TO PERIOD OF LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE EARLY TONIGHT AND THEN TO JUST RAIN BY LATE
NIGHT AS TEMPERATURES WARM WELL INTO THE 30S. ACROSS THE NORTH AND
CENTRAL AREAS, FROZEN/FREEZING PRECIP WILL HANG ON RIGHT INTO
MIDDAY TUESDAY W/WAA EXPECTED TO REACH THE HOULTON-MILLINOCKET
REGION BY EARLY AFTERNOON W/RAIN. ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES, FROM
CARIBOU-PRESQUE ISLE, MIXED SNOW/SLEET GOING TO FREEZING
RAIN/SLEET INTO MID AFTERNOON W/SOME SLEET AND ICE ACCUMULATION.
AS THE LOW TRAVELS ACROSS THE COAST OF MAINE TOWARD THE BAY OF
FUNDY BY WEDNESDAY EVENING, CAA WILL WRAP BACK IN TO ALLOW PRECIP
TO GO TO SNOW AS FAR SOUTH AS HOULTON AND MILLINOCKET W/SOME SNOW
ACCUMULATION OF 1-2 INCHES BY EARLY EVENING. ICE ACCUMULATIONS
ACROSS THE NORTH- CENTRAL AREAS WILL BE TRICKY AS SLEET TRANSITION
COULD BE QUICKER CUTTING DOWN ON THE ICING. ATTM, ICE
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO 0.10-0.20 ACROSS THE PRESQUE ISLE-
HOULTON-SHERMAN AREA.

THEREFORE, WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT ACROSS THE
HOULTON-MILLINOCKET AND GREENVILLE REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR ICING POTENTIAL. ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AREAS FROM CARIBOU- PRESQUE ISLE NORTH TO THE ST. JOHN
VALLEY, THE ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY RIGHT INTO
THURSDAY FOR A COMBINATION OF SNOW/SLEET ACCUMULATION OF 6-10
INCHES AND LIGHT ICING. THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS SUCH AS THE LINCOLN
AND DOVER-FOXCROFT WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED AS ANY PROLONGED
FREEZING RAIN COULD LEAD TO SOME ICING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE
CONFIDENCE FOR THIS IS LOW ATTM. THE MIDNIGHT CREW CAN ASSESS THIS
POTENTIAL FURTHER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF OF MAINE DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY AND BECOME THE PRIMARY SYSTEM AS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES FILLS. THE PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE IN THE
FORM OF A MIXTURE OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN WEDNESDAY EVENING
WITH WARM AIR IN THE MID LEVELS AND COLD AIR REMAINS NEAR THE
SURFACE. AS THE GREAT LAKES LOW FILLS AND THE GULF OF MAINE LOW
BECOMES THE PRIMARY SYSTEM EXPECT THE WARM AIR AT MID LEVELS TO BE
CUT OFF AND COLD ADVECTION TO TAKE PLACE W/MIXED PRECIPITATION IN
THE NORTH AND CENTRAL AREAS TO CHANGE TO SNOW. THE SNOW WILL
CONTINUE THURSDAY MORNING THEN END LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE
LOW CENTER CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST INTO NOVA SCOTIA.
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO STAY MOSTLY AS RAIN IN THE SOUTH AND
ALONG THE COAST. FOR PRECIPITATION TYPE HAVE USED THE
PRECIPITATION FROM THICKNESS TOOL RUN ON A 50/50 BLEND OF THE NAM
AND GFS. FOR TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT WILL USE THE NAM12 WITH
INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE GULF OF MAINE. HAVE
USED THE NAM12 FOR WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD IN
FROM THE WEST FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE STATE SATURDAY THEN MOVE TO THE
EAST SUNDAY. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE TO
THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AND POSSIBLY BRING SOME
LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE STATE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE WEST AND CREST OVER THE STATE
TUESDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN APPROACH FROM THE WEST
WEDNESDAY. HAVE USED THE SUPER BLEND TO INITIALIZE GRIDS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR LIFTING TO MVFR THIS EVENING AND THEN A RETURN BACK
TO IFR FOR ALL THE TERMINALS TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. SOME ICING
POTENTIAL IS THERE ESPECIALLY FOR THE NORTHERN TERMINALS.

SHORT TERM: EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR CONDITIONS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS WILL START PICKING UP ON WEDNESDAY W/SEAS
RESPONDING ACCORDINGLY. A 40 KT LLVL JET FROM SSE IS FORECAST TO
MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS ON WEDNESDAY. SOME CROSSING OF THE WINDS IS
THERE AS SURFACE WINDS OF 15-20 KTS ARE FORECAST TO BE OUT OF THE
ENE. SOME GUST POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR UP TO 30 KTS ESPECIALLY OUT
OVER THE OUTER WATERS. THEREFORE, DECIDED TO GO W/A SCA FOR WINDS
OF 15 TO 25 KTS AND SEAS APCHG 6 FT BY LATE WEDNESDAY. WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO DROP OFF WEDNESDAY EVENING AS THE LOW MOVES ACROSS THE
WATERS.

SHORT TERM: HAVE USED THE NAM12 FOR SUSTAINED WINDS. FOR WAVES:
PRIMARY WAVE SYSTEM LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY IS SOUTHEASTERLY
WAVES DEVELOPING IN FETCH AHEAD OF INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE THEN
TRANSITION TO OFF-SHORE WIND WAVES AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES TO THE
NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 3 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR MEZ001-002.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     MEZ003>006-010.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HEWITT/MCB
SHORT TERM...MIGNONE
LONG TERM...MIGNONE
AVIATION...HEWITT/MIGNONE
MARINE...HEWITT/MIGNONE




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